WorldWideScience

Sample records for policy analysis model

  1. What Can Policy Analysis Add to Evaluation Research?: Predictive Modeling and Policy Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagel, Stuart S.

    Policy analysis, or policy study, is defined as the study of the nature, causes, and effects of alternative public policies; sometimes policy analysis refers to specific methods used. Two new developments associated with policy analysis are discussed. One is the concern for deducing the effects of alternative policies before they are adopted, as…

  2. A Computable OLG Model for Gender and Growth Policy Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pierre-Richard Agénor

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a computable Overlapping Generations (OLG) model for gender and growth policy analysis. The model accounts for human and physical capital accumulation (both public and private), intra- and inter-generational health persistence, fertility choices, and women's time allocation between market work, child rearing, and home production. Bargaining between spouses and gender bias, in the form of discrimination in the work place and mothers' time allocation between daughters and so...

  3. Global climate change policies. An analysis of CDM policies with an adapted GTAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shunli

    2004-01-01

    In the context of the relationships between spatial-economic interaction and global warming just discussed, this study aims to analyze the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) policies from an economic point of view. The research question of this study is formulated as follows: What will be the impacts of clirnate change policies, in particular CDM policies, on the economic performance of (groups of) countries in our global economic system, taking spatial interaction and general equilibrium effects into account? The purpose of addressing the issue of economic performance for (groups of) countries in the economic system is not just to identify winners and losers from international treaties. Rather, winning or losing may even determine the implementation and willingness of individual countries to participate in international environmental treaties, as illustrated by the recent withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol. By analyzing the economic impacts of an international environmental treaty for individual (groups of) countries, the framework that will be used to analyze this research question may be useful to determine the attractiveness of some global environmental policies, both for the world as a whole and for individual (groups of) countries. The research question will be answered by dividing it into six subquestions: (1) What is the position of CDM policies in the broad context of climate policy regimes?; (2) How should the relationship between human behavior and the physical environment be ideally modeled from an economic perspective? (3) How should the spatial dimension be incorporated in this framework of interaction between the economic and ecological system?; (4) How can climate change issues be incorporated in general equilibrium models in general, and in GTAP-E (extension of the Global Trade Analysis Project) in particular?; (5) How can CDM policies be implemented in the GTAP-E model?; and (6) What are the impacts of these climate change policies on

  4. A Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, R. W.; Hill, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Although integrated assessments of climate change policy have frequently identified nuclear energy as a promising alternative to fossil fuels, these studies have often treated nuclear waste disposal very simply. Simple assumptions about nuclear waste are problematic because they may not be adequate to capture relevant costs and uncertainties, which could result in suboptimal policy choices. Modeling nuclear waste management costs is a cross-disciplinary, multi-scale problem that involves economic, geologic and environmental processes that operate at vastly different temporal scales. Similarly, the climate-related costs and benefits of nuclear energy are dependent on environmental sensitivity to CO2 emissions and radiation, nuclear energy's ability to offset carbon emissions, and the risk of nuclear accidents, factors which are all deeply uncertain. Alternative value systems further complicate the problem by suggesting different approaches to valuing intergenerational impacts. Effective policy assessment of nuclear energy requires an integrated approach to modeling nuclear waste management that (1) bridges disciplinary and temporal gaps, (2) supports an iterative, adaptive process that responds to evolving understandings of uncertainties, and (3) supports a broad range of value systems. This work develops the Nuclear Waste Management Cost Model (NWMCM). NWMCM provides a flexible framework for evaluating the cost of nuclear waste management across a range of technology pathways and value systems. We illustrate how NWMCM can support policy analysis by estimating how different nuclear waste disposal scenarios developed using the NWMCM framework affect the results of a recent integrated assessment study of alternative energy futures and their effects on the cost of achieving carbon abatement targets. Results suggest that the optimism reflected in previous works is fragile: Plausible nuclear waste management costs and discount rates appropriate for intergenerational cost

  5. A model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, C.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the PAGE model (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), developed by Cambridge Decision Analysts for the Directorate general for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities. The rest of this section describes the motivation for developing PAGE; it is followed by sections outlining the features of PAGE, explaining its structure in more detail, and reporting some of the uses to which it is being put. The current consensus is that unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to a rise in global mean temperature. The causal chain from emissions to temperature is complex, and current estimates give a range of 2 - 5 deg C for the temperature rise by the year 2100 if no specific actions are taken to control emissions. The damage that a global temperature rise of a few degrees over a century would cause is also not well known. Some influential groups are sufficiently alarmed to have called for global agreements to stabilize or reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Others claim that the costs of doing so would not be justified, and that adapting to a changed climate would be the best policy. Negotiations are further complicated by the global nature of the problem; if a country, or even a major trading block such as the European Community, decided to control emissions of a greenhouse gas, some of the benefit would be gained in other parts of the world that have not shared in the cost of control. 12 refs., 6 figs

  6. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  7. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  8. Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojgan Ansari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

  9. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  10. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  11. A Model-Based Exploration and Policy Analysis Related to Prostitution and Human Trafficking

    OpenAIRE

    András Kővári; Erik Pruyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a model-based exploration and policy analysis related to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, the paper zooms in on the Dutch situation. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide policy insights is subsequently presented. Using the simulation model, policies are first of all tested, and preliminary conclusions a...

  12. Credible baseline analysis for multi-model public policy studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parikh, S.C.; Gass, S.I.

    1981-01-01

    The nature of public decision-making and resource allocation is such that many complex interactions can best be examined and understood by quantitative analysis. Most organizations do not possess the totality of models and needed analytical skills to perform detailed and systematic quantitative analysis. Hence, the need for coordinated, multi-organization studies that support public decision-making has grown in recent years. This trend is expected not only to continue, but to increase. This paper describes the authors' views on the process of multi-model analysis based on their participation in an analytical exercise, the ORNL/MITRE Study. One of the authors was the exercise coordinator. During the study, the authors were concerned with the issue of measuring and conveying credibility of the analysis. This work led them to identify several key determinants, described in this paper, that could be used to develop a rating of credibility.

  13. Assimilation of tourism satellite accounts and applied general equilibrium models to inform tourism policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Rossouw, Riaan; Saayman, Melville

    2011-01-01

    Historically, tourism policy analysis in South Africa has posed challenges to accurate measurement. The primary reason for this is that tourism is not designated as an 'industry' in standard economic accounts. This paper therefore demonstrates the relevance and need for applied general equilibrium (AGE) models to be completed and extended through an integration with tourism satellite accounts (TSAs) as a tool for policy makers (especially tourism policy makers) in South Africa. The paper sets...

  14. Modeling Security-Enhanced Linux Policy Specifications for Analysis (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Archer, Myla; Leonard, Elizabeth; Pradella, Matteo

    2003-01-01

    Security-Enhanced (SE) Linux is a modification of Linux initially released by NSA in January 2001 that provides a language for specifying Linux security policies and, as in the Flask architecture, a security server...

  15. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  16. Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Preda

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

  17. Networks and Bargaining in Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogason, Peter

    2006-01-01

    A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today.......A duscussion of the fight between proponents of rationalistic policy analysis and more political interaction models for policy analysis. The latter group is the foundation for the many network models of policy analysis of today....

  18. User Instructions for the Policy Analysis Modeling System (PAMS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.

    2018-03-13

    PAMS uses country-specific and product-specific data to calculate estimates of impacts of a Minimum Efficiency Performance Standard (MEPS) program. The analysis tool is self-contained in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, and requires no links to external data, or special code additions to run. The analysis can be customized to a particular program without additional user input, through the use of the pull-down menus located on the Summary page. In addition, the spreadsheet contains many areas into which user-generated input data can be entered for increased accuracy of projection. The following is a step-by-step guide for using and customizing the tool.

  19. Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, R.; Moll, H.; Kuyvenhoven, A.

    1998-01-01

    Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural

  20. An Exploration of the System Dynamics Field : A Model-Based Policy Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, A.C.

    2014-01-01

    This report presents a first look study at the field of System Dynamics. The objective of the study is to perform a model-based policy analysis in order to investigate the future advancement of the System Dynamics field. The aim of this investigation is to determine what this advancement should look

  1. Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

  2. A goal programming model for environmental policy analysis: Application to Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Cristóbal, José Ramón

    2012-01-01

    Sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic, environmental, social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible. However, nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems. Due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis, there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies. In the present paper, a goal programming model, based on an environmental/input–output linear programming model, is developed and applied to the Spanish economy. The model combines relations between economic, energy, social and environmental effects, providing valuable information for policy-makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability. - Highlights: ► In this paper a goal programming model is developed. ► The model considers environmental, energy, social and economic goals. ► The model shows the effects of a reduction in greenhouse gasses emission and energy requirements. ► The model is applied to the Spanish economy.

  3. Indigeneity-Grounded Analysis (IGA as Policy(-Making Lens: New Zealand Models, Canadian Realities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Maaka

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Engaging politically with the principles of indigeneity is neither an option nor a cop out. The emergence of Indigenous peoples as prime-time players on the world’s political stage attests to the timeliness and relevance of indigeneity in advancing a new postcolonial contract for living together differently. Insofar as the principles of indigeneity are inextricably linked with challenge, resistance, and transformation, this paper argues that reference to indigeneity as policy(- making paradigm is both necessary and overdue. To put this argument to the test, the politics of Maori indigeneity in Aotearoa New Zealand are analyzed and assessed in constructing an indigeneity agenda model. The political implications of an indigeneity-policy nexus are then applied to the realities of Canada’s Indigenous/Aboriginal peoples. The paper contends that, just as the Government is committed to a gender based analysis (GBA for improving policy outcomes along gender lines, so too should the principles of indigeneity (or aboriginality secure an indigeneity grounded analysis (IGA framework for minimizing systemic policy bias while maximizing Indigenous peoples inputs. The paper concludes by theorizing those provisional first principles that inform an IGA framework as a policy (-making lens.

  4. Optimal Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Endogenous Growth Model: a calibrated analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Arato, Hiroki

    2009-01-01

    This paper constructs an endogenous growth New Keynesian model and considers growth and welfare effect of Taylor-type (operational) monetary policy rules. The Ramsey equilibrium and optimal operational monetary policy rule is also computed. In the calibrated model, the Ramseyoptimal volatility of inflation rate is smaller than that in standard exogenous growth New Keynesian model with physical capital accumulation. Optimal operational monetary policy rule makes nominal interest rate respond s...

  5. Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

    2016-01-01

    School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

  6. The Role of Systems Modeling for Sustainable Development Policy Analysis: the Case of Bio-Ethanol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert W. Chan

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic systems modeling technique has been developed to assess technologies according to the criterion of sustainability. In a case study, the potential contribution of bio-ethanol toward achieving Canada's commitment to the Kyoto targets for greenhouse gas reductions is analyzed. The analysis concludes that, although bio-ethanol may help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the technology by itself is insufficient to meet the Kyoto target. Applying the systems modeling approach to analyze sustainability helps highlight those policy issues that warrant more in-depth study. Although the systems model may not provide definitive answers, it raises relevant questions about physical constraints that might be encountered and estimates the extent to which sustainability targets may be met under various scenarios.

  7. Transformation of Croatian Disabled Policy: Analysis of Policy Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Petek

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on the idea of transformation of the policy-making mode of Croatian disabled policy, from the medical model, through the social model to the human rights model. The paper highlights 7 elements according to which these models differ, and which are structured into categories of problem-definition, goal-determination and then implementation of disabled policy. The analysis is focused on the goals of Croatian disabled policy, and is based on an interdisciplinary research project of political science, special education and social work. Empirical data were collected by document analysis, by interviewing relevant policy actors and by a survey with the members of representative bodies on all government levels. With the discourse analysis of documents, open coding of interviews and statistical analysis of data collected in the survey, the paper attempts, through the indicator of activity of persons with disability, to answer to what extent Croatian disabled policy is transformed into human rights policy.

  8. An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inghels, Dirk; Dullaert, Wout

    2011-04-01

    This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This provides insights into how gross domestic product (GDP), population and selective collection behaviour have influenced household waste production and collection over time. These relationships are used to model the dynamic relationships underlying household waste management in Flanders by using a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. Where most SD models in literature are conceptual and descriptive, in the present study a real-life case with both correlational and descriptive relationships was modelled for Flanders, a European region with an outstanding waste management track record. This model was used to evaluate the current Flemish household waste management policy based on the principles of the waste hierarchy, also referred as the Lansink ranking. The results show that Flemish household waste targets up to 2015 can be achieved by the current waste policy measures. It also shows the sensitivity of some key policy parameters such as prevention and reuse. Given the general nature of the model and its limited data requirements, the authors believe that the approach implemented in this model can also assist waste policy makers in other regions or countries to meet their policy targets by simulating the effect of their current and potential household waste policy measures.

  9. The Rotation and Assignment of Imbalanced Air Force Specialties: A Policy Analysis Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    OCS R = REMO )TE. REQRENM. RIQOS /\\ - _:/ ., --- -- ..70 ~~RI QODL !1 \\ """... . .........................................."- 0 r -~- (0 II ( rI 1 22...Corporate System Model of a Sports Club: Using Simulatiiin as an Aid Policies which alter tour lengths or make minor changes in to Policy Making in a

  10. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    OpenAIRE

    Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

    2016-01-01

    To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

  11. Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wivel, Anders

    2017-01-01

    'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis.......'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis....

  12. Random variables in forest policy: A systematic sensitivity analysis using CGE models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alavalapati, J.R.R.

    1999-01-01

    Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are extensively used to simulate economic impacts of forest policies. Parameter values used in these models often play a central role in their outcome. Since econometric studies and best guesses are the main sources of these parameters, some randomness exists about the 'true' values of these parameters. Failure to incorporate this randomness into these models may limit the degree of confidence in the validity of the results. In this study, we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to assess the economic impacts of: 1) a 1 % increase in tax on Canadian lumber and wood products exports to the United States (US), and 2) a 1% decrease in technical change in the lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors of the US and Canada. We achieve this task by using an aggregated version of global trade model developed by Hertel (1997) and the automated SSA procedure developed by Arndt and Pearson (1996). The estimated means and standard deviations suggest that certain impacts are more likely than others. For example, an increase in export tax is likely to cause a decrease in Canadian income, while an increase in US income is unlikely. On the other hand, a decrease in US welfare is likely, while an increase in Canadian welfare is unlikely, in response to an increase in tax. It is likely that income and welfare both fall in Canada and the US in response to a decrease in the technical change in lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors 21 refs, 1 fig, 5 tabs

  13. Prostitution and Human Trafficking : A model-based exploration and policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovari, A.; Pruyt, E.

    2012-01-01

    The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to

  14. The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

    2016-09-01

    Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

  15. Policy Analysis Reaches Midlife

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beryl A. Radin

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The field of policy analysis that exists in the 21st century is quite different from that found earlier phases. The world of the 1960s that gave rise to this field in the US often seems unrelated to the world we experience today. These shifts have occurred as a result of a range of developments – technological changes, changes in the structure and processes of government both internally and globally, new expectations about accountability and transparency, economic and fiscal problems, and increased political and ideological conflict.It is clear globalization has had a significant impact on the field. Shifts in the type of decisionmaking also have created challenges for policy analysts since analysts are now clearly in every nook and cranny in the decisionmaking world. Thus it is relevant to look at the work that they do, the skills that they require, and the background experience that is relevant to them.

  16. Use of queue modelling in the analysis of elective patient treatment governed by a maximum waiting time policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozlowski, Dawid; Worthington, Dave

    2015-01-01

    Many public healthcare systems struggle with excessive waiting lists for elective patient treatment. Different countries address this problem in different ways, and one interesting method entails a maximum waiting time guarantee. Introduced in Denmark in 2002, it entitles patients to treatment...... chain and discrete event simulation models, to provide an insightful analysis of the public hospital performance under the policy rules. The aim of this paper is to support the enhancement of the quality of elective patient care, to be brought about by better understanding of the policy implications...

  17. Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castelnuovo, E.; Galeotti, M.; Vergalli, S.; Gambarelli, G.

    2004-01-01

    Many predictions and conclusions in the climate change literature have been made and drawn on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One is naturally led to wonder whether those conclusions and policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we took a popular integrated assessment model and modified it so as to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R and D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects both the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make further progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R and D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. As an illustration, we simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a selected number of relevant variables, including growth rates of GDP and physical capital, as well as total emissions and rate of domestic abatement. Keywords: Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

  18. Towards increased policy relevance in energy modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale

    2003-07-29

    Historically, most energy models were reasonably equipped to assess the impact of a subsidy or change in taxation, but are often insufficient to assess the impact of more innovative policy instruments. We evaluate the models used to assess future energy use, focusing on industrial energy use. We explore approaches to engineering-economic analysis that could help improve the realism and policy relevance of engineering-economic modeling frameworks. We also explore solutions to strengthen the policy usefulness of engineering-economic analysis that can be built from a framework of multi-disciplinary cooperation. We focus on the so-called ''engineering-economic'' (or ''bottom-up'') models, as they include the amount of detail that is commonly needed to model policy scenarios. We identify research priorities for the modeling framework, technology representation in models, policy evaluation and modeling of decision-making behavior.

  19. Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

    2017-10-01

    A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

  20. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

  1. Modeling of global biomass policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

  2. Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and output sources of the National Economic Production Department. Secondly, an extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM of Jiangsu province is developed to simulate various scenarios. By changing values of the discharge fees (increased by 50%, 100% and 150%, three scenarios are simulated to examine their influence on the overall economy and each industry. The simulation results show that an increased fee will have a negative impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP. However, waste water may be effectively controlled. Also, this study demonstrates that along with the economic costs, the increase of the discharge fee will lead to the upgrading of industrial structures from a situation of heavy pollution to one of light pollution which is beneficial to the sustainable development of the economy and the protection of the environment.

  3. Analysis of rice policy based on presidential instruction on household food security: simultaneous equation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, S. A.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of rice policy on the household food security. The research used cross section data, were collected from 74 respondent as determined by purposive sampling in Sei Rejo villages, the Sub District of Sei Rampah, Serdang Bedagai District in the Province of North Sumatera. Rice policy model specification uses the simultaneous equations consisting of 6 structural equations and 6 identity equations which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that the effectiveness of government purchase price of dried harvest paddy gave a positive impact on paddy planted area and lead to an increase paddy production and an increase of the rice production gave a positive impact on household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the increase of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin decrease, whereas the increase of fertilizers gave a negative impact on paddy planted area and lead to decrease paddy production and to decrease in rice production was followed by an decrease in household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the decrease of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin increase.

  4. Effect of Policy Analysis on Indonesia’s Maritime Cluster Development Using System Dynamics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nursyamsi, A.; Moeis, A. O.; Komarudin

    2018-03-01

    As an archipelago with two third of its territory consist of water, Indonesia should address more attention to its maritime industry development. One of the catalyst to fasten the maritime industry growth is by developing a maritime cluster. The purpose of this research is to gain understanding of the effect if Indonesia implement maritime cluster policy to the growth of maritime economic and its role to enhance the maritime cluster performance, hence enhancing Indonesia’s maritime industry as well. The result of the constructed system dynamic model simulation shows that with the effect of maritime cluster, the growth of employment rate and maritime economic is much bigger that the business as usual case exponentially. The result implies that the government should act fast to form a legitimate cluster maritime organizer institution so that there will be a synergize, sustainable, and positive maritime cluster environment that will benefit the performance of Indonesia’s maritime industry.

  5. Development of an improved commercial sector energy model for national policy analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belzer, D.B.

    1992-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory provided support to the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy (CE), under the Office of Planning and Assessment, to develop improved energy and environmental analysis tools. Commercial building sector energy models from the past decade were analyzed in order to provoke comment and stimulate discussion between potential model users and developers as to the appropriate structure and capability of a commercial sector energy model supported by CE. Three specific areas were examined during this review. These areas provide (1) a look at recent suggestions and guidance as to what constitutes a minimal set of requirements and capabilities for a commercial buildings energy model for CE, (2) a review of several existing models in terms of their general structure and how they match up with the requirements listed previously, and (3) an overview of a proposed improved commercial sector energy model.

  6. Consumers’ evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in China: An analysis based on a four paradigm model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Wenbo; Long, Ruyin; Chen, Hong

    2016-01-01

    The Chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution. In this study we divided these policies into seven categories: macroscopic, demonstration, subsidization, preferential tax, technical support, industry management, and infrastructure. Since consumers’ opinions affect the policy choices of government, based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers’ evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction. The results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction, whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction. The importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high. Perceptions of the importance of subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies are high, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low. We find that the subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement. Finally, we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers’ intention to adopt NEVs. - Highlights: • This study divided Chinese NEV-related policies into seven types. • This study analyzed consumers’ evaluation of NEV-related policies. • Consumers’ evaluations about NEV-related policies were diverse. • Subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need improvement.

  7. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  8. A qualitative exploration of the human resource policy implications of voluntary counselling and testing scale-up in Kenya: applying a model for policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Kenya experienced rapid scale up of HIV testing and counselling services in government health services from 2001. We set out to examine the human resource policy implications of scaling up HIV testing and counselling in Kenya and to analyse the resultant policy against a recognised theoretical framework of health policy reform (policy analysis triangle). Methods Qualitative methods were used to gain in-depth insights from policy makers who shaped scale up. This included 22 in-depth interviews with Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) task force members, critical analysis of 53 sets of minutes and diary notes. We explore points of consensus and conflict amongst policymakers in Kenya and analyse this content to assess who favoured and resisted new policies, how scale up was achieved and the importance of the local context in which scale up occurred. Results The scale up of VCT in Kenya had a number of human resource policy implications resulting from the introduction of lay counsellors and their authorisation to conduct rapid HIV testing using newly introduced rapid testing technologies. Our findings indicate that three key groups of actors were critical: laboratory professionals, counselling associations and the Ministry of Health. Strategic alliances between donors, NGOs and these three key groups underpinned the process. The process of reaching consensus required compromise and time commitment but was critical to a unified nationwide approach. Policies around quality assurance were integral in ensuring standardisation of content and approach. Conclusion The introduction and scale up of new health service initiatives such as HIV voluntary counselling and testing necessitates changes to existing health systems and modification of entrenched interests around professional counselling and laboratory testing. Our methodological approach enabled exploration of complexities of scale up of HIV testing and counselling in Kenya. We argue that a better

  9. WAGEM: an applied general equilibrium model for agricultural and environmental policy analysis.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Komen, M.H.C.; Peerlings, J.H.M.

    1996-01-01

    Agricultural and environmental policy changes have potentially large effects on Dutch agriculture and economy as a whole. The effects could be on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, trade, and environmental quality. The clear structure and flexibility make applied general equilibrium

  10. Progress in Energy Storage Technologies: Models and Methods for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matteson, Schuyler W.

    Climate change and other sustainability challenges have led to the development of new technologies that increase energy efficiency and reduce the utilization of finite resources. To promote the adoption of technologies with social benefits, governments often enact policies that provide financial incentives at the point of purchase. In their current form, these subsidies have the potential to increase the diffusion of emerging technologies; however, accounting for technological progress can improve program success while decreasing net public investment. This research develops novel methods using experience curves for the development of more efficient subsidy policies. By providing case studies in the field of automotive energy storage technologies, this dissertation also applies the methods to show the impacts of incorporating technological progress into energy policies. Specific findings include learning-dependent tapering subsidies for electric vehicles based on the lithium-ion battery experience curve, the effects of residual learning rates in lead-acid batteries on emerging technology cost competitiveness, and a cascading diffusion assessment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle subsidy programs. Notably, the results show that considering learning rates in policy development can save billions of dollars in public funds, while also lending insight into the decision of whether or not to subsidize a given technology.

  11. An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Inghels, D.A.M.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This

  12. Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Vesna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

  13. Short-run analysis of fiscal policy and the current account in a finite horizon model

    OpenAIRE

    Heng-fu Zou

    1995-01-01

    This paper utilizes a technique developed by Judd to quantify the short-run effects of fiscal policies and income shocks on the current account in a small open economy. It is found that: (1) a future increase in government spending improves the short-run current account; (2) a future tax increase worsens the short-run current account; (3) a present increase in the government spending worsens the short-run current account dollar by dollar, while a present increase in the income improves the cu...

  14. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  15. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  16. ROMANIAN INVESTMENT POLICY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hategan Anca

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Starting with the year 2009, the European Union, as well as the rest of the world, was affected by the economic and financial crisis, and one of the effects reflected in the decrease of foreign direct investment (FDI projects and also in the reduction of their host locations. Creating a healthy economic environment, that should be efficient for any form of international investment , represents the nowadays challenge of all market economies. This paper concentrates on analyzing our country’s attractiveness from the international investor’s point of view, it also focuses on the Romanian investment policy, its investment climate, as well as on identifying or valuating the strengths and opportunities offered by Romania. The advantages of the foreign direct investments are universally recognized and they basically include the expansion of the production capacity and income, job creation, technologically diffusion and economic development. Creating an appropriate economic environment, that is efficient for any form of international investments represents the nowadays challenge of all market economies. OECD member states experience, for example, outlines the advantages of a functional legal and normative climate, based on the principles of transparency and non discrimination, that are essential for attracting foreign investments. In the actual competition for attracting FDI, every state tries to offer as many incentives to the future foreign investors. The Romanian investment policy sets out incentives in a non-discriminatory and transparent way offering the investors the specific criteria. The Romanian business environment has improved significantly in recent years, driven in particular by EU accession. Major progress has been recorded in areas such as the fiscal environment, rule of law, the fight against corruption and property registration. When considering our country a possible location for the development of their businesses, the foreign

  17. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  18. Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of

  19. Relating Actor Analysis Methods to Policy Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Lei, T.E.

    2009-01-01

    For a policy analyst the policy problem is the starting point for the policy analysis process. During this process the policy analyst structures the policy problem and makes a choice for an appropriate set of methods or techniques to analyze the problem (Goeller 1984). The methods of the policy

  20. Policy Analysis and Decisionmaking,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    on "PoI icy Analysis as appl ied to Hiqh-Level Decision-Makinq,’ orciani,’t, ard ,ponsored by Orinoquia Asociacion Civil , in Caracas. Vvelc/t l...substantive and tactical c. Rand’s experience (the new Institute for Civil Justice as a change) i

  1. Policy modeling for industrial energy use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

    2003-03-01

    The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

  2. Mutual perceptions between nuclear plant employees and general public on nuclear policy communication applying the Co-orientation analysis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bong Chul; Kim, Ji Hyun; Chung, Woon Kwan [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    This study examines mutual perceptions between general public and nuclear plant employees on understanding nuclear policy communication applying the co-orientation model. The total of 414 responses were analyzed including 211 of the general public and 203 of plant employees. Results indicate that agreement between general public and plant employees is relatively high, in that general public tends to have negative evaluation to nuclear policy communication, but plant employees tends to have positive one. In terms of congruence, general public perceive that plant employees might have more positive evaluation than themselves, and nuclear plant employees perceive that general public might have more negative evaluation than themselves. Finally, in terms of accuracy, general public accurately estimate how nuclear plant employees perceive on policy communication, whereas nuclear plant employees unaccurately estimate how general public perceive on policy communication.

  3. Mutual perceptions between nuclear plant employees and general public on nuclear policy communication applying the Co-orientation analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Bong Chul; Kim, Ji Hyun; Chung, Woon Kwan

    2015-01-01

    This study examines mutual perceptions between general public and nuclear plant employees on understanding nuclear policy communication applying the co-orientation model. The total of 414 responses were analyzed including 211 of the general public and 203 of plant employees. Results indicate that agreement between general public and plant employees is relatively high, in that general public tends to have negative evaluation to nuclear policy communication, but plant employees tends to have positive one. In terms of congruence, general public perceive that plant employees might have more positive evaluation than themselves, and nuclear plant employees perceive that general public might have more negative evaluation than themselves. Finally, in terms of accuracy, general public accurately estimate how nuclear plant employees perceive on policy communication, whereas nuclear plant employees unaccurately estimate how general public perceive on policy communication

  4. Decarbonizing the European electricity sector. Modeling and policy analysis for electricity and CO2 infrastructure networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oei, Pao-Yu Charly Robin

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation uses three models to analyze different decarbonization strategies for combating global climate change: The cost minimizing mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod examines the economics of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) for the electricity and industry sector; the welfare maximizing quadratically constrained model ELMOD focuses on different trajectories for renewable energy sources (RES) and transmission grid expansions; and the equilibrium model ELCO combines the insights of the individual sectors to a combined CCTS and electricity investment and dispatch model. Modeling results show that an investment in CCTS is beneficial for the iron and steel sector once the CO 2 certificate price exceeds 50 Euros/t CO 2 . The threshold is 75 Euros/t CO 2 for the cement industry and 100 Euros/t CO 2 for the electricity sector. Additional revenues from using CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS in the North Sea region. The lack of economies of scale results in increasing CO 2 storage costs of more than 30%, while transport costs even double. Research from the last years, however, indicates that CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. The identified reasons for this are incumbents' resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. Keeping global temperature rise below 2 C therefore implies the phase-out of fossilfueled power plants and, in particular, of CO 2 -intensive coal power plants. The low CO 2 price established by the European Emissions Trading Scheme is insufficient to induce a fuel switch in the medium term. Therefore, supplementary national measures are necessary to reduce coal-based power generation; i.a. feed-in tariffs for RES, minimum CO 2 prices, or emissions performance standards. Analyses for

  5. Gravity models of forest products trade: applications to forecasting and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno

    2016-01-01

    To predict the value of trade between countries, a differential gravity model of bilateral trade flowswas formulated and estimated with panel data from 2005 to 2014 for each of the commodity groups HS44 (wood and articles of wood), HS47 (pulp of wood, fibrous cellulosic material) and HS48 (paper and paperboard). The parameters were estimated with a large database by...

  6. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  7. Policy analysis of electricity demand flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas

    The large-scale development of variable renewable energy sources, like wind and solar power, increases the demand for flexibility in power systems. At the same time, their electricity production replaces that of conventional power plants – the traditional suppliers of flexibility, and consequently...... include a clear commitment to develop an "intelligent" energy system that utilises the flexibility potential of the demand side, a coherent policy strategy covering all aspects of the flexibility challenge has not yet been defined. By use of economic models and concepts of policy analysis, this thesis...... flexibility on the demand side. Its potential could be substantial and technical solutions are available. Still, demand flexibility is largely unutilised and establishing an enabling policy and regulatory framework has been identified as one of the major challenges. While the latest Danish energy policies...

  8. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  9. Policy advice derived from simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brenner, T.; Werker, C.

    2009-01-01

    When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which

  10. Institutional analysis for energy policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, F.A.; Cole, R.J.

    1980-07-01

    This report summarizes principles, techniques, and other information for doing institutional analyses in the area of energy policy. The report was prepared to support DOE's Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program. RIIA identifies environmental, health, safety, socioeconomic, and institutional issues that could accompany hypothetical future scenarios for energy consumption and production on a regional basis. Chapter 1 provides some theoretical grounding in institutional analysis. Chapter 2 provides information on constructing institutional maps of the processes for bringing on line energy technologies and facilities contemplated in RIIA scenarios. Chapter 3 assesses the institutional constraints, opportunities, and impacts that affect whether these technologies and facilities would in fact be developed. Chapters 4 and 5 show how institutional analysis can support use of exercises such as RIIA in planning institutional change and making energy policy choices.

  11. Rhetorical Analysis in Critical Policy Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winton, Sue

    2013-01-01

    Rhetorical analysis, an approach to critical discourse analysis, is presented as a useful method for critical policy analysis and its effort to understand the role policies play in perpetuating inequality. A rhetorical analysis of Character "Matters!", the character education policy of a school board in Ontario, Canada, provides an…

  12. Control of Groundwater Pollution from Animal Feeding Operations: A Farm-Level Dynamic Model for Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Baerenklau, K.

    2012-12-01

    Consolidation in livestock production generates higher farm incomes due to economies of scale, but it also brings waste disposal problems. Over-application of animal waste on adjacent land produces adverse environmental and health effects, including groundwater nitrate pollution. The situation is particularly noticeable in California. In respond to this increasingly severe problem, EPA published a type of command-and-control regulation for concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) in 2003. The key component of the regulation is its nutrient management plans (NMPs), which intend to limit the land application rates of animal waste. Although previous studies provide a full perspective on potential economic impacts for CAFOs to meet nutrient standards, their models are static and fail to reflect changes in management practices other than spreading manure on additional land and changing cropping patterns. We develop a dynamic environmental-economic modeling framework for representative CAFOs. The framework incorporates four models (i.e., animal model, crop model, hydrologic model, and economic model) that include various components such as herd management, manure handling system, crop rotation, water sources, irrigation system, waste disposal options, and pollutant emissions. We also include the dynamics of soil characteristics in the rootzone as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the irrigation system. The operator maximizes discounted total farm profit over multiple periods subject to environmental regulations. Decision rules from the dynamic optimization problem demonstrate best management practices for CAFOs to improve their economic and environmental performance. Results from policy simulations suggest that direct quantity restrictions of emission or incentive-based emission policies are much more cost-effective than the standard approach of limiting the amount of animal waste that may be applied to fields (as shown in the figure below); reason being

  13. A Practical Method of Policy Analysis by Simulating Policy Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, James L.

    2011-01-01

    This article focuses on a method of policy analysis that has evolved from the previous articles in this issue. The first section, "Toward a Theory of Educational Production," identifies concepts from science and achievement production to be incorporated into this policy analysis method. Building on Kuhn's (1970) discussion regarding paradigms, the…

  14. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  15. Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

    2010-08-01

    The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

  16. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents an analysis of the impact of monetary policy on financial asset returns, with particular reference to stocks. The minimum discount rate and an index based on the direction of change in discount rate were used as monetary policy proxies. The analysis was done using a multi-association model of which ...

  17. Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inwon Kang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

  18. Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuypers, Marshall A.; Lambert, Gregory Joseph; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John,; Finley, Patrick D.; Ross, David; Chartier, Maggie

    2013-09-01

    Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

  19. The Intellectual Landscape of Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Young, Michelle D.; Welton, Anjalé D.; Mansfield, Katherine Cumings; Lee, Pei-Ling

    2014-01-01

    What counts as critical policy analysis in education? Over the past 30 years, a tightening of national educational policies can be seen in the USA and across the globe. Over this same period of time, a growing number of educational policy scholars, dissatisfied with traditional frameworks, have used critical frameworks in their analyses. Their…

  20. An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mazza, I.; van Winden, F.

    2008-01-01

    Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator

  1. Evaluation and Policy Analysis: A Communicative Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Wallat

    1997-07-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for the next generation of students of human development is to help shape the paradigms by which we analyze and evaluate public policies for children and families. Advocates of building research and policy connections point to health care and stress experiences across home, school, and community as critical policy issues that expand the scope of contexts and outcomes studied. At a minimum, development researchers and practitioners will need to be well versed in available methods of inquiry; they will need to be "methodologically multilingual" when conducting evaluation and policy analysis, producing reports, and reporting their interpretations to consumer and policy audiences. This article suggests how traditional approaches to policy inquiry can be reconsidered in light of these research inquiry and communicative skills needed by all policy researchers. A fifteen year review of both policy and discourse processes research is presented to suggest ways to conduct policy studies within a communicative framework.

  2. Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir I. Abramov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

  3. Statistical network analysis for analyzing policy networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robins, Garry; Lewis, Jenny; Wang, Peng

    2012-01-01

    and policy network methodology is the development of statistical modeling approaches that can accommodate such dependent data. In this article, we review three network statistical methods commonly used in the current literature: quadratic assignment procedures, exponential random graph models (ERGMs...... has much to offer in analyzing the policy process....

  4. Policy analysis: palliative care in Ireland.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Larkin, P

    2014-03-01

    Palliative care for patients with advanced illness is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy and research. In 2001 Ireland became one of the first nations to publish a dedicated national palliative care policy. This paper uses the \\'policy analysis triangle\\' as a framework to examine what the policy entailed, where the key ideas originated, why the policy process was activated, who were the key actors, and what were the main consequences. Although palliative care provision expanded following publication, priorities that were unaddressed or not fully embraced on the national policy agenda are identified. The factors underlying areas of non-fulfilment of policy are then discussed. In particular, the analysis highlights that policy initiatives in a relatively new field of healthcare face a trade-off between ambition and feasibility. Key policy goals could not be realised given the large resource commitments required; the competition for resources from other, better-established healthcare sectors; and challenges in expanding workforce and capacity. Additionally, the inherently cross-sectoral nature of palliative care complicated the co-ordination of support for the policy. Policy initiatives in emerging fields such as palliative care should address carefully feasibility and support in their conception and implementation.

  5. Biofuel supply chain, market, and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Leilei

    Renewable fuel is receiving an increasing attention as a substitute for fossil based energy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has employed increasing effort on promoting the advanced biofuel productions. Although the advanced biofuel remains at its early stage, it is expected to play an important role in climate policy in the future in the transportation sector. This dissertation studies the emerging biofuel supply chain and markets by analyzing the production cost, and the outcomes of the biofuel market, including blended fuel market price and quantity, biofuel contract price and quantity, profitability of each stakeholder (farmers, biofuel producers, biofuel blenders) in the market. I also address government policy impacts on the emerging biofuel market. The dissertation is composed with three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the supply chain of emerging biofuel industry. Two optimization-based models are built to determine the number of facilities to deploy, facility locations, facility capacities, and operational planning within facilities. Cost analyses have been conducted under a variety of biofuel demand scenarios. It is my intention that this model will shed light on biofuel supply chain design considering operational planning under uncertain demand situations. The second part of the dissertation work focuses on analyzing the interaction between the key stakeholders along the supply chain. A bottom-up equilibrium model is built for the emerging biofuel market to study the competition in the advanced biofuel market, explicitly formulating the interactions between farmers, biofuel producers, blenders, and consumers. The model simulates the profit maximization of multiple market entities by incorporating their competitive decisions in farmers' land allocation, biomass transportation, biofuel production, and biofuel blending. As such, the equilibrium model is capable of and appropriate for policy analysis, especially for those policies

  6. Policy analysis of multi-actor systems

    CERN Document Server

    Enserink, Bert; Kwakkel, Jan; Thissen, Wil; Koppenjan, Joop; Bots, Pieter

    2010-01-01

    Policy analysts love solving complex problems. Their favorite problems are not just technically complex but also characterized by the presence of many different social actors that hold conflicting interests, objectives, and perceptions and act strategically to get the best out of a problem situation. This book offers guidance for policy analysts who want to assess if and how their analysis could be of help, based on the premise that problem formulation is the cornerstone in addressing complex problems. This book positions policy analysis within the theories on processes of policy making, and f

  7. Negociatrix policy game: building capacities in trade policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balie, J.; Hofwegen, van G.; Jongeneel, R.; Koning, N.B.J.

    2007-01-01

    The Negociatrix Policy Game is a tool for training in multilateral negotiation, which has been developed through a partnership between FAO and the University of Wageningen in the Netherlands. This tool is a software based on a quantitative model and a simulation that consents to underline the

  8. A Bayesian Approach for the Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamic in Case of Emerging Countries-Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana-Alina Ionita

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes the analysis of the main drivers of the economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, in three emerging countries: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with a development stage similar with that of Romania. Given the vulnerabilities of the Central and Eastern Europe region at the beginning and during the recent global economic and financial crisis, there is an increased interest to identify the models that can describe the principalcharacteristics of the Central and Eastern Europe macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product, investment, wages and salaries, inflation, hours worked, consumption and themonetary variable- interest rate. Moreover, another scope is to analyze the frictions that describe the evolution of the seven data series, as the stochastic dynamic of the macroeconomic model is driven by orthogonal structural shocks.

  9. Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

  10. Policy Analysis and the Health Care System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science, 1972

    1972-01-01

    Describes the need for reason, analysis, and experimentation in the provision of health services, and proposes that the institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences establish a center for policy studies to complement and interact with government policy formulation. (AL)

  11. Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

    2013-09-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

  12. Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

    2014-01-01

    Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

  13. Public Policies Analysis and the Prince System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behxhet Brajshori

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Public Policies present governmental sectorial policies and according to several scholars those are defined based on "what does the Government do". In fact, those are mandatory state's principles for the Government that aims the implementation of the strategy, objectives and Government's goals in the function of its promises' fulfilment towards the electors and all of the country's citizens. Public Policies Analysis has to do with the monitoring of government's agenda which directly can influence on a specific community. The idea of public policies analysis in linked with the need that the Government through statistical data has to prove what is being worked. Public Policies Analysis evolves in terms of design, implementation and public policies' effects. One of the methods for predicting the probability that a specifi c public policy will be implemented or not, is the Prince System. The Prince System, actually, presents a technique for assessing the relative support or opposition to a particular policy from individuals, groups or organizations.

  14. Introduction: Discourse Analysis and Policy Discourse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des); R.J. Apthorpe (Raymond)

    1996-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract: As introduction to a collection on policy discourses and patterns of argumentation in international development, this paper clarifies different meanings of `discourse' and 'discourse analysis', including as applied in development studies, and explains why effective

  15. MICROECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN COMPETITION POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Prisecaru

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some of the most important microeconomic tools used in assessing antitrust and merger cases by the competition authorities. By explaining the way that microeconomic concepts like “market power”, “critical loss” or “price elasticity of demand” are used by the modern competition policy, the microeconomics scholar can get a practical perspective on the way that these concepts fit into the more general concept of “competition policy”. Extensive economic research has shown what are the market forces and economic factors that determine how cartels, which are at the core of antitrust policy, are established and sustained over time. One of the most important of these factors is the markets exposure to innovation, especially disruptive innovation. In these markets, the paradox, from a competition policy perspective, can be considered the fact that collusion is one of the least important concerns, due to the specific elements that determine the nature of competition.Instead, the main anticompetitive risk in the markets exposed to intensive innovation is unilateral conduct by which dominant incumbents can exclude competitors.

  16. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  17. Policy options and their potential effects on Moroccan small farmers and the poor facing increased world food prices: A general equilibrium model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin

    2008-01-01

    "This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...

  18. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

    2017-11-01

    This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

  19. A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagos, Ricardo; Wright, Randall

    2005-01-01

    Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis. We propose a new framework, based on explicit micro foundations, within which macro…

  20. Dynamic spatial equilibrium models for social cost benefit analysis of transport projects and policies: implementations for the Netherlands and Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Varga, A.; Koike, A.

    2008-01-01

    During the late 80’s the so-called SCGE (Spatial Computable General Equilibrium) models were introduced within the research community. These models were cross-sectional in nature and were most interesting from the perspective of showing the consequences of changes in interregional interactions; in

  1. An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

    2012-01-01

    Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

  2. A Study on emission and reduction policy of greenhouse gas in Korea - a positive analysis using CGE (Computable General Equilibrium Model) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Gyeong Lyeob; Kwon, Tae Gyu [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    The present situation and characters of greenhouse gas emission in Korea was reviewed and then the theoretical analysis on pros and cons about emissions trading system and carbon tax, and estimation of reduction cost and loss of GDP using GDP model to reduce greenhouse gas was discussed. Finally a ripple effect of carbon tax and emissions trading system on balance of international payments and output per each industry was reviewed. 24 refs., 34 Figs., 30 tabs.

  3. Decarbonizing the European electricity sector. Modeling and policy analysis for electricity and CO{sub 2} infrastructure networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oei, Pao-Yu Charly Robin

    2016-03-03

    This dissertation uses three models to analyze different decarbonization strategies for combating global climate change: The cost minimizing mixed-integer model CCTS-Mod examines the economics of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) for the electricity and industry sector; the welfare maximizing quadratically constrained model ELMOD focuses on different trajectories for renewable energy sources (RES) and transmission grid expansions; and the equilibrium model ELCO combines the insights of the individual sectors to a combined CCTS and electricity investment and dispatch model. Modeling results show that an investment in CCTS is beneficial for the iron and steel sector once the CO{sub 2} certificate price exceeds 50 Euros/t CO{sub 2}. The threshold is 75 Euros/t CO{sub 2} for the cement industry and 100 Euros/t CO{sub 2} for the electricity sector. Additional revenues from using CO{sub 2} for enhanced oil recovery (CO{sub 2}-EOR) lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS in the North Sea region. The lack of economies of scale results in increasing CO{sub 2} storage costs of more than 30%, while transport costs even double. Research from the last years, however, indicates that CCTS is unlikely to play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. The identified reasons for this are incumbents' resistance to structural change, wrong technology choices, over-optimistic cost estimates, a premature focus on energy projects instead of industry, and the underestimation of transport and storage issues. Keeping global temperature rise below 2 C therefore implies the phase-out of fossilfueled power plants and, in particular, of CO{sub 2}-intensive coal power plants. The low CO{sub 2} price established by the European Emissions Trading Scheme is insufficient to induce a fuel switch in the medium term. Therefore, supplementary national measures are necessary to reduce coal-based power generation; i.a. feed-in tariffs for RES, minimum CO{sub 2} prices, or

  4. Co-Optimization of Electricity Transmission and Generation Resources for Planning and Policy Analysis: Review of Concepts and Modeling Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat; Ho, Jonathan; Hobbs, Benjamin F.; Liu, Andrew L.; McCalley, James D.; Shahidehpour, Mohammad; Zheng, Qipeng P.

    2016-05-01

    The recognition of transmission's interaction with other resources has motivated the development of co-optimization methods to optimize transmission investment while simultaneously considering tradeoffs with investments in electricity supply, demand, and storage resources. For a given set of constraints, co-optimized planning models provide solutions that have lower costs than solutions obtained from decoupled optimization (transmission-only, generation-only, or iterations between them). This paper describes co-optimization and provides an overview of approaches to co-optimizing transmission options, supply-side resources, demand-side resources, and natural gas pipelines. In particular, the paper provides an up-to-date assessment of the present and potential capabilities of existing co-optimization tools, and it discusses needs and challenges for developing advanced co-optimization models.

  5. Policy Analysis, International Relations, and European Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Christian Dagnis; Tatham, Michaël

    2017-01-01

    The article highlights the rationale of the special issue in terms of its objectives and guiding principles. It maps different evolutions and challenges within three analytical streams (1) regarding the field of policy analysis, (2) concerning the interaction between domestic and international...

  6. Interpretive policy analysis in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bommel, Severine; van Hulst, M.J.; Yanow, Dvora; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This chapter outlines the character of interpretive policy analysis (IPA) and then looks at the history and present state of its practice in the Netherlands. In an approach commonly found in science studies, that history is traced through key actors and their publications, institutional locations,

  7. Modelling mobility aspects of security policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartel, Pieter H.; van Eck, Pascal; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    Security policies are rules that constrain the behaviour of a system. Different, largely unrelated sets of rules typically govern the physical and logical worlds. However, increased hardware and software mobility forces us to consider those rules in an integrated fashion. We present SPIN models of

  8. Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

    This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

  9. Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Zhiqiang; Zhu, Yun; Jang, Carey; Wang, Shuxiao; Gao, Jian; Lin, Che-Jen; Li, Minhui; Zhu, Zhenghua; Wei, Hao; Yang, Wenwei

    2017-01-01

    To develop a sound ozone (O 3 ) pollution control strategy, it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O 3 . Using the "Shunde" city as a pilot summer case study, we apply an innovative response surface modeling (RSM) methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling simulations to identify the O 3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O 3 impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) control strategy. Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O 3 polluted city. The "Jiangmen" city, as the main upper wind area during July 2014, its VOCs and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions make up the largest contribution (9.06%). On the contrary, the contribution from local (Shunde) emission is lowest (6.35%) among the seven neighbor regions. The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde. The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO x control could slightly increase the ground O 3 under low (10.00%) and medium (40.00%) reduction ratios, while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O 3 under the high NO x abatement ratio (75.00%). The real-time assessment of O 3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta (PRD) shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O 3 concentration in Shunde. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Dividend Policy and Corporate Value (A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tifani Titah Dwi Tyastari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to understand the effect of dividend policy on corporate value, as well as to examine and analyze the variation of result study on corporate value in Indonesia.Dividend Signaling Model was the grand theory used to explain the effect of dividend policy on corporate value. This study used meta-analysis approach with the sample were 70 researches in Indonesia, both the published and unpublished in 2007-2015. The result of this study, meta-analysis strengthens the findings of the previous study which stated that the dividend policy could increase the corporate value. The differences of the previous studies were due to the presence of moderation effect from the measurement model of corporate value and dividend corporate.

  11. Policy analysis and recommendations for the DCM research data exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This report is a policy analysis and set of recommendations regarding open data policies and policies for new, transformative data environments that are being developed as part of the Connected Vehicle research program. It is presented in three secti...

  12. European Cohesion Policy: A Proposed Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Bouroşu (Costăchescu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The current approach of European Cohesion Policy (ECP is intended to be a bridge between different fields of study, emphasizing the intersection between "the public policy cycle, theories of new institutionalism and the new public management”. ECP can be viewed as a focal point between putting into practice the principles of the new governance theory, theories of economic convergence and divergence and the governance of common goods. After a short introduction of defining the concepts used, the author discussed on the created image of ECP by applying three different theories, focusing on the structural funds implementation system (SFIS, directing the discussion on the evaluation part of this policy, by proposing a model of performance evaluation of the system, in order to outline key principles for creating effective management mechanisms of ECP.

  13. Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilley, Luke A.

    In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

  14. Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Emilia POPA

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

  15. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis: Which is More Effective?

    OpenAIRE

    Yunanto, Muhamad; Medyawati, Henny

    2014-01-01

    Fiscal policy is an adjustment in the income and expenditure of government as stipulated inthe state budget in order to achieve better economic stability and pace of development. Themain objective of this study was to measure and analyze Fiscal and Monetary Policy of theGross Domestic Product (GDP). Fiscal Policy Multiplier (FPM) and Monetary PolicyMultiplier (MPM) are used to answer the debate where more effective between fiscal policy andmonetary policy. Short-term models derived through er...

  16. Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

    2016-10-01

    Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

  17. Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba E. Gámez

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

  18. A comparative analysis of capacity adequacy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard; Botterud, Audun; Wolfgang, Ove

    2007-06-01

    In this paper a stochastic dynamic optimization model is used to analyze the effect of different generation adequacy policies in restructured power systems. The expansion decisions of profit-maximizing investors are simulated under a number of different market designs: Energy Only with and without a price cap, Capacity Payment, Capacity Obligation, Capacity Subscription, and Demand Elasticity. The results show that the overall social welfare is reduced compared to a centralized social welfare optimization for all policies except Capacity Subscription and Demand Elasticity. In particular, an energy only market with a low price cap leads to a significant increase in involuntary load shedding. Capacity payments and obligations give additional investment incentives and more generating capacity, but also result in a considerable transfer of wealth from consumers to producers due to the capacity payments. Increased demand elasticity increases social welfare, but also results in a transfer from producers to consumers, compared to the theoretical social welfare optimum. In contrast, the capacity subscription policy increases the social welfare, and both producers and consumers benefit. This is possible because capacity subscription explicitly utilizes differences in consumers' preferences for uninterrupted supply. This advantage must be weighed against the cost of implementation, which is not included in the model.

  19. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  20. Scoring Models of Bank Credit Policy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Aida Hanic; Emina Zunic; Adnan Dzelihodzic

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present how credit scoring models can be used in financial institutions, in this case in banks, in order to simplify credit lending. Unlike traditional models of credit analysis, scoring models provides valuation based on numerical score who represent clients’ possibility to fulfil their obligation. Using credit scoring models, bank can create a numerical snapshot of consumers risk profile. One of the most important characteristic of scoring models is objectivity w...

  1. Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Sufang; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Zhao, Xiaoli; He, Yongxiu

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies. -- Highlights: •Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy are discussed. •China's key renewable energy and renewable energy industrial policies are outlined. •Two empirical cases illustrate China's policy approach to renewable energies. •We argue that China needs to enhance the interactions between the two policies. •Three ideas underlie China's policy approach to renewable energies

  2. General and Partial Equilibrium Modeling of Sectoral Policies to Address Climate Change in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pizer, William; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard; Sanchirico, James; Toman, Michael

    2003-03-31

    This document provides technical documentation for work using detailed sectoral models to calibrate a general equilibrium analysis of market and non-market sectoral policies to address climate change. Results of this work can be found in the companion paper, "Modeling Costs of Economy-wide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Model".

  3. Analysis of maternal and child health policies in Malawi: The ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of maternal and child health policies in. Malawi: The methodological perspective. Abstract. The question of why most health policies do not achieve their intended results continues to receive a considerable attention in the literature. This is in the light of the recognized gap between policy as intent and policy.

  4. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  5. An Analysis of Reconstituted Fluid Milk Pricing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Glen D. Whipple

    1983-01-01

    This analysis suggests that alteration of the reconstituted fluid milk pricing provisions of federal and state milk market orders would have a substantial impact on market equilibrium. A reactive programming model of the U.S. milk market was used to simulate the effects of altered reconstituted fluid milk pricing policy. The solutions indicate that reconstituted fluid milk, as a lower cost alternative to fresh fluid milk, would make up a substantial portion of the fluid milk consumption in so...

  6. Energy modelling platforms for policy and strategy support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyner, I.

    2000-01-01

    The energy field has been dominated by 'hard' modelling approaches by researchers from engineering and economics discipline. The recent trend towards a more liberalised environment moves away from central planning to market-based resource allocation, leading to the creation and use of strategic tools, with much 'softer' specifications, in the 'system-thinking' tradition. This paper presents the use of system dynamics in a generalised way, to provide a platform for integrated energy analysis. Issues of modularity and policy evolution are important in the design of the modelling platform to facilitate its use, and reuse. Hence the concepts of a platform, rather than a model, has to be implemented in a coherent way if it is to provide sustained value for ongoing support to both government policy and corporate strategy. (author)

  7. What model of science? Towards a sociologically oriented science policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Jedlikowska

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary global world the various models of making and distributing science are cultivated. The particular model of institutionalized science can significantly determine the quality of working both as a scientist and as a student. Research upon science environment in the meaning of investigation the framework of science influences for example the system of communication between different actors engaged in science, good practices, possibilities offered by particular context of science and facilities of acquiring the scientific knowledge etc. It this view the presented paper finds its justification directing analysis towards the quality of making science. Hence the paradigm of sociological science policy is strongly needed. The paper is going to reconstruct the key models which recognize contexts of making science and its numerous dimensions. The research is based on the set of literature founded through the digital key words searching process. The chosen literature recalls the most significant research based on science policy. Consequently the described models tend towards the most globalized and open models of making science to show the path of required changes into still founded coercive science structures mostly institutionalized by long-lasting tradition. The final conclusion states that more concrete steps in reformulating the science policy are required to obtain the desirable model of open science and at the same time to develop the high standing scientific priorities.

  8. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY INDICATORS VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANAMARIA POPESCU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to characterize through statistical indicators of statistical data that we have available. The purpose of this paper is to present statistical indicators, primary and secondary, simple and synthetic, which is frequently used for statistical characterization of statistical series. We can thus analyze central tendency, and data variability, form and concentration distributions package data using analytical tools in Microsoft Excel that enables automatic calculation of descriptive statistics using Data Analysis option from the Tools menu. We will also study the links which exist between statistical variables can be studied using two techniques, correlation and regression. From the analysis of monetary policy in the period 2003 - 2014 and information provided by the website of the National Bank of Romania (BNR seems to be a certain tendency towards eccentricity and asymmetry of financial data series.

  9. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, Jose M.; Rodriguez, Miguel

    2009-01-01

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation.

  10. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labandeira, Xavier [Facultade de CC. Economicas, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Labeaga, Jose M. [Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria 378, 28035 Madrid (Spain); Rodriguez, Miguel [Facultade de CC. Empresariais e Turismo, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense (Spain)

    2009-12-15

    Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

  11. Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

  12. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  13. Analysis of product efficiency of hybrid vehicles and promotion policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hyundo; Oh, Inha

    2010-01-01

    The key aim of this study is to evaluate the product efficiency of current hybrid vehicles and suggest effective policies to promote hybrid vehicles in the Korean automobile market and development trends of hybrid vehicles. The efficiency levels for car models sold in Korea, including hybrid ones, were measured using the recently developed discrete additive data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that reflects consumer preference. The result of the analysis shows that current hybrid vehicles on the market are still at lower competitive advantage than traditional car models with conventional combustion engines and we can suggest a mix of incentive policies to promote the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles. In addition, we also identify two distinctive trends of hybrid vehicle development: environment-oriented hybrid vehicles and performance-oriented hybrid vehicles. It implies that the government should take account of development trends of hybrid vehicles to achieve the policy goals in designing support schemes and automobile companies that are willing to develop hybrid vehicles can also gain some insights for making strategic decisions. (author)

  14. Office of Integrated Assessment and Policy Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parzyck, D.C.

    1980-01-01

    The mission of the Office of Integrated Assessments and Policy Analysis (OIAPA) is to examine current and future policies related to the development and use of energy technologies. The principal ongoing research activity to date has focused on the impacts of several energy sources, including coal, oil shale, solar, and geothermal, from the standpoint of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. An additional project has recently been initiated on an evaluation of impacts associated with the implementation of the Toxic Substances Control Act. The impacts of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act on energy supply constitute the principal research focus of OIAPA for the near term. From these studies a research approach will be developed to identify certain common elements in the regulatory evaluation cycle as a means of evaluating subsequent environmental, health, and socioeconomic impact. It is planned that an integrated assessment team examine studies completed or underway on the following aspects of major regulations: health, risk assessment, testing protocols, environment control cost/benefits, institutional structures, and facility siting. This examination would assess the methodologies used, determine the general applicability of such studies, and present in a logical form information that appears to have broad general application. A suggested action plan for the State of Tennessee on radioactive and hazardous waste management is outlined

  15. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  16. Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli

    2000-01-01

    Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs

  17. Choice of forest map has implications for policy analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seebach, Lucia Maria; McCallum, Ian; Fritz, Steffen

    2012-01-01

    and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and the resultant policy implications. In this study we tested whether...... the choice of a forest map has substantial influence on model output, i.e. if output differences can be related to the input differences. A sensitivity analysis of the spatially explicit Global Forest Model (G4M) was performed using four different forest maps: the pan-European high resolution forest...... utilization of forest biomass. The sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of the forest cover map has a major influence on the model outputs in particular at the country-level, while having less influence at the EU27 level. Differences between the input datasets are strongly reflected in the outputs...

  18. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

  19. Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

  20. A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newsham, Guy R.; Donnelly, Cara L.

    2013-01-01

    We applied conditional demand analysis (CDA) to estimate the average annual energy use of various electrical and natural gas appliances, and derived energy reductions associated with certain appliance upgrades and behaviours. The raw data came from 9773 Canadian households, and comprised annual electricity and natural gas use, and responses to >600 questions on dwelling and occupant characteristics, appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and associated behaviours. Replacing an old (>10 years) refrigerator with a new one was estimated to save 100 kW h/year; replacing an incandescent lamp with a CFL/LED lamp was estimated to save 20 kW h/year; and upgrading an old central heating system with a new one was estimated to save 2000 kW h/year. This latter effect was similar to that of reducing the number of walls exposed to the outside. Reducing the winter thermostat setpoint during occupied, waking hours was estimated to lower annual energy use by 200 kW h/°C-reduction, and lowering the thermostat setting overnight in winter relative to the setting during waking hours (night-time setback) was estimated to have a similar effect. This information may be used by policy-makers to optimize incentive programs, information campaigns, or other energy use change instruments. - Highlights: ► Conditional demand analysis (CDA) applied to data from 9773 Canadian households. ► Energy savings associated with certain appliance upgrades estimated. ► Energy savings associated with thermostat behaviours estimated. ► Policy-makers can use findings to optimize incentives and information campaigns

  1. A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

    2017-01-01

    policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

  2. Population health outcome models in suicide prevention policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Frances L

    2014-09-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S. and results in immense suffering and significant cost. Effective suicide prevention interventions could reduce this burden, but policy makers need estimates of health outcomes achieved by alternative interventions to focus implementation efforts. To illustrate the utility of health outcome models to help in achieving goals defined by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention's Research Prioritization Task Force. The approach is illustrated specifically with psychotherapeutic interventions to prevent suicide reattempt in emergency department settings. A health outcome model using decision analysis with secondary data was applied to estimate suicide attempts and deaths averted from evidence-based interventions. Under optimal conditions, the model estimated that over 1 year, implementing evidence-based psychotherapeutic interventions in emergency departments could decrease the number of suicide attempts by 18,737, and if offered over 5 years, it could avert 109,306 attempts. Over 1 year, the model estimated 2,498 fewer deaths from suicide, and over 5 years, about 13,928 fewer suicide deaths. Health outcome models could aid in suicide prevention policy by helping focus implementation efforts. Further research developing more sophisticated models of the impact of suicide prevention interventions that include a more complex understanding of suicidal behavior, longer time frames, and inclusion of additional outcomes that capture the full benefits and costs of interventions would be helpful next steps. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

  3. Policy Analysis of Road Traffic Injury Prevention in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Shabaninejad, Hosein; Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Due to the large number of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) in Iran, authorities have implemented a number of policies for the prevention of RTIs. However, a scientific analysis of these policies has thus far been neglected. Therefore, this study was conducted for policy analysis of RTIs prevention in Iran. Methods This qualitative study with a case study approach was conducted in Iran during 2016 in two phases: First, by reviewing literature and documents of the past ten years, policies that have been executed to prevent RTIs in Iran were identified. In the second phase of the study, the identified policies were ranked by prioritization matrices. The two policies with the highest scores were selected. ‘Policy triangle framework’ was used for Policy analyzing. Stakeholders of these policies (42 people) were interviewed. Data were analyzed manually by implementing Content-Analysis methods. Results The policies of “pupil liaisons” and “safety belt” were selected for analysis from thirteen potential identified polices. The results of some studies revealed that safety belts had not been properly used in Iran (less than 80%). There was an eight-year hiatus between the approval of the safety belts policy and implementation of this policy. Eight actors were identified for safety belts policy. Lack of diligence in implementation of the policy, failing to pay adequate attention to education and the culture of driving, and failing to select an organization for the implementation of the policy, were identified as the main weaknesses of this policy. For ‘pupil liaisons’ policy, five actors were identified. Following the implementation of this policy, the number of penalties was reduced (17.9%). Neglecting scientific findings and individual-based nature of the policy were identified as the primary weaknesses of this policy. Conclusions Taking serious measures to properly execute the policy, educating people, selecting an efficient organization that is

  4. Health care models guiding mental health policy in Kenya 1965 - 1997

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenkins Rachel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mental health policy is needed to set the strategy and direction for the provision of mental health services in a country. Policy formulation does not occur in a vacuum, however, but is influenced by local and international factors in the health sector and other sectors. Methods This study was carried out in 1997 to examine the evolution of mental health policy in Kenya between 1965 and 1997 in the context of changing international concepts of health and development. Qualitative content analysis of policy documents was combined with interviews of key policy makers. Results The study showed that during the period 1965-1997 the generic health policy in Kenya changed from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s and 1970s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the late 1970s and the 1980s and finally to one based on the Market Model of health care in the 1990s. The mental health policy, on the other hand, evolved from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the 1990s, but did not embrace the Market Model of health care. This resulted in a situation in the 1990s where the mental health policy was rooted in a different conceptual model from that of the generic health policy under which it was supposed to be implemented. This "Model Muddlement" may have impeded the implementation of the mental health policy in Kenya. Conclusions Integration of the national mental health policy with the general health policy and other sector policies would be appropriate and is now underway.

  5. Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

    2017-12-01

    Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

  6. Reaching beyond Democracy in Educational Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Leigh

    2016-01-01

    Educational policy analyses have tended toward either the impact of policies on student achievement or the furthering of progressive ideals, regularly theorized through concepts of democracy. In this theoretical essay, I suggest that democracy has become a vehicle for cauterized projects of individualized and contingent state status rather than…

  7. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

  8. Interpretation and Analysis of Privacy Policies of Websites in India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhotre, Prashant Shantaram; Olesen, Henning; Khajuria, Samant

    2017-01-01

    Privacy policy is vital and legal document that allows websites/companies to communicate users on how data is gathered, the ways of collection, its purpose, and its management. Once user accepts it, the user approves the disclosure of his/her personal/behavioral data to websites under...... the conditions specified in the policy document. So, ideally the privacy policies should be readable and provide sufficient information to empower users to make knowledgeable decisions. Thus, we have examined more than 50 privacy policies and discussed the content analysis in this paper. We discovered...... that the policies are not only unstructured but also described in complicated language. Our analysis shows that the user data security measures are nonspecific and unsatisfactory in 57% privacy policies. In spite of huge amount of information collection, the privacy policies does not have clear description...

  9. Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, Raf; Dombrecht, Michel

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the interaction between inflation and monetary policy rules is analysed within the framework of a dynamic general equilibrium model derived from optimising behaviour and rational expectations. Using model simulations, it is illustrated that the control of monetary policy over the inflation process is strongly dependent on the role of forward looking expectations in the price and wage setting process and on the credibility of monetary policy in the expectation formation process ...

  10. Analysing Complex Policy Change in Hong Kong: What Role for Critical Discourse Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Annie Y. N.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The Hong Kong government recently reformed pre-primary education with the introduction of a voucher scheme. At the time this policy caused considerable opposition from across Hong Kong Society. This paper seeks to use Fairclough's model of critical discourse analysis to explore a key policy text and seeks to assess to what extent such an…

  11. School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

    2016-01-01

    Background: Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Methods: Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in…

  12. Policy research and analysis organizations: an account of recent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drawing from interviews, archival documents and a range of other sources, this article takes stock of key public policy research and analysis organizations in Ethiopia. It sheds light on the significance of professionalization of policy analysis and its contributions to closing the gap between knowledge and policymaking, offers ...

  13. Diffraction as a Method of Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmer, Jasmine B.

    2016-01-01

    Recent developments in critical policy analysis have occurred alongside the new materialisms in qualitative research. These lines of scholarship have unfolded along two separate, but related, tracks. In particular, the new materialist method of "diffraction" aligns with many elements of critical policy analysis. Both involve critical…

  14. Maryland's Model Policy to Address Bullying, Harassment, or Intimidation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maryland State Department of Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of Section 7-424.1 of the Education Article of the Annotated Code of Maryland, the Maryland State Board of Education has developed and adopted a Model Policy to address bullying, harassment, or intimidation. This report presents the Model Policy, which is organized into the following eight points: (1) Prohibition…

  15. ANALYSI S ON SECONDARY I NFECTI ON- TRI GGERI NG MICROORGANISMS IN HIV/AIDS PATIENTS AS A MODEL FOR POLICY CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retno Pudji Rahayu

    2015-01-01

    /AIDS infections and have potential as model for policy control in HIV/AIDS.

  16. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

    2012-11-01

    Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Modelling inspection policies for building maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christer, A H

    1982-08-01

    A method of assessing the potential of an inspection maintenance policy as opposed to an existing breakdown maintenance policy for a building complex is developed. The method is based upon information likely to be available and specific subjective assessments which could be made available. Estimates of the expected number of defects identified at an inspection and the consequential cost saving are presented as functions of the inspection frequency.

  18. Aspects with Program Analysis for Security Policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Fan

    . This dissertation explores the principles of adding challenging security policies to existing systems with great flexibility and modularity. The policies concerned cover both classical access control and explicit information flow policies. We built our solution by combining aspect-oriented programming techniques......Enforcing security policies to IT systems, especially for a mobile distributed system, is challenging. As society becomes more IT-savvy, our expectations about security and privacy evolve. This is usually followed by changes in regulation in the form of standards and legislation. In many cases......, small modification of the security requirement might lead to substantial changes in a number of modules within a large mobile distributed system. Indeed, security is a crosscutting concern which can spread to many business modules within a system, and is difficult to be integrated in a modular way...

  19. Analysis of a government policy to address nursing shortage and nursing education quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhicharttibutra, K; Kunaviktikul, W; Turale, S; Wichaikhum, O-A; Srisuphan, W

    2017-03-01

    A well-educated, sufficient nursing workforce improves population health and standards of nursing care. Analysing workforce policies assists nurses to learn from the past and develop better future policies. Describe policy-making processes in the first Thai government plan to increase nursing capacity and improve nursing education quality. A qualitative study employing Longest's model to examine policy-making processes. Data were obtained from 28 in-depth interviews with key informants, who had been committee members and former deans of nursing involved with the policy processes in the 1990s. Both qualitative and quantitative data were extracted from relevant documents, and content analysis employed with all data. Three policy phases were identified. Policy formulation, where three streams of problems, politics and policy resulted in identification of nursing shortage, changes of government incumbents and needing to increase nurse production; Policy implementation included creating methods of implementation, appointing responsible people and committees, creating operational plans, producing more nurses and faculty development projects and Policy modification which incorporated implementing the first Thai international doctoral degree in English, a collaborative programme between universities. Not all key informants could be accessed due to the passage of time. Findings are unique to Thailand but inform internationally of nurses' abilities and need to be involved in policy. Nurses were involved in all policy phases. While the policy produced positive developments in growing nursing capacity and education in the past, nursing shortages remained and are now acute in Thailand. Lessons learned from this policy analysis help explain why the nursing education and nursing shortage policy was legislated through the government agenda, and the active involvement of Thai nurses in this process. Nurses globally need to be at the policy-making table to try to reduce nursing

  20. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  1. Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toure Kadidiatou

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. Methods The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. Results With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010. This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA; action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames

  2. Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

    2012-10-01

    State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

  3. Implementation lessons for school food policies and marketing restrictions in the Philippines: a qualitative policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeve, Erica; Thow, Anne Marie; Bell, Colin; Engelhardt, Katrin; Gamolo-Naliponguit, Ella Cecilia; Go, John Juliard; Sacks, Gary

    2018-01-23

    The school environment can enhance children's skills, knowledge and behaviours in relation to healthy eating. However, in many countries, unhealthy foods are commonly available in schools, and children can be exposed to aggressive marketing by the food industry. Taking the perspective of policymakers, this study aimed to identify barriers and enablers to effective school food policy development and implementation in the Philippines. In May 2016, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 policymakers and stakeholders involved in school food policymaking and implementation in the Philippines. The Health Policy Analysis Triangle was used to identify interview questions and to guide the thematic analysis. These included the political and socio-environmental context, strengths and limitations of existing policy content, roles and behaviours of actors, implementation processes, policy outcomes, and opportunities to improve policy coherence. The Department of Education's policy 'Orders' represented a relatively strong policy framework for the education sector of the Philippines. However, a lack of human and financial resources for implementation, planning, and policy enforcement limited the impact of the policy on the healthiness of school food provision. Ambiguity in policy wording allowed a wide interpretation of the foods eligible to be provided in schools, and led to difficulties in effective monitoring and enforcement. Food companies used existing relationships with schools to promote their brands and compromise the establishment of a stronger food policy agenda. We found a motivated group of actors engaging in policy-oriented learning and advocating for a stronger policy alternative so as to improve the school food environment. The adoption of policy mechanisms being used to promote healthy dietary practices in the school setting will be strengthened by more robust implementation planning processes, and resources to support implementation and enforcement

  4. Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

  5. Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

    2018-03-13

    Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Transboundary air pollution in Asia: Model development and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Tracey

    2001-12-01

    This work investigates transboundary air pollution in Asia through atmospheric modeling and public policy analysis. As an example of models actively shaping environmental policy, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe (LRTAP) is selected as a case study. The LRTAP Convention is the only mulit- lateral air pollution agreement to date, and results from the RAINS integrated assessment model were heavily used to calculate nationally differentiated emission ceilings. Atmospheric chemistry and transport are included in RAINS through the use of transfer coefficients (or ``source-receptor relationships'') relating pollutant transfer among European nations. Following past work with ATMOS to simulate sulfur species in Asia, here ATMOS is developed to include odd-nitrogen. Fitting with the linear structure of ATMOS and the emphasis on computational efficiency, a simplified chemical scheme developed for use in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Chemical Transport Model (GFDL GCTM) is adopted. The method solves for the interconversions between NOx, HNO3, and PAN based on five reaction rates stored in look-up tables. ATMOS is used to calculate source-receptor relationships for Asia. Significant exchange of NOy occurs among China, North and South Korea, and Japan. On an annual average basis, China contributes 18% to Japan's total nitrate deposition, 46% to North Korea, and 26% to South Korea. Nitrate deposition is an important component of acidification (along with sulfate deposition), contributing 30-50% to the acid burden over most of Japan, and more than 50% to acid deposition in southeast Asia, where biomass burning emits high levels of NOx. In evaluating the policy-relevance of results from the ATMOS model, four factors are taken into account: the uncertainty and limitations of ATMOS, the environmental concerns facing Asia, the current status of the scientific community in relation to regional air pollution in the region, and

  7. Measuring use of research evidence in public health policy: a policy content analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardo, Pauline; Collie, Alex

    2014-05-23

    There are few Australian studies showing how research evidence is used to inform the development of public health policy. International research has shown that compensation for injury rehabilitation can have negative impacts on health outcomes. This study examined transport injury compensation policy in the Australian state of Victoria to: determine type and purpose of reference to information sources; and to identify the extent of reference to academic research evidence in transport related injury rehabilitation compensation policy. Quantitative content analysis of injury rehabilitation compensation policies (N = 128) from the Victorian state government transport accident compensation authority. The most commonly referenced types of information were Internal Policy (median = 6 references per policy), Clinical/Medical (2.5), and Internal Legislation (1). Academic Research Evidence was the least often referenced source of information. The main purpose of reference to information was to support injury treatment and rehabilitation compensation claims decision-making. Transport injury compensation policy development is complex; with multiple sources of information cited including legislation, internal policy, external policy and clinical/medical evidence. There is limited use of academic research evidence in Victorian state government injury treatment and rehabilitation compensation policies. Decisions regarding compensation for injury treatment and rehabilitation services could benefit from greater use of academic research evidence. This study is one of the first to examine the use of research evidence in existing Australian public health policy decision-making using rigorous quantitative methods. It provides a practical example of how use of research evidence in public health policy can be objectively measured.

  8. Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groff, Jennifer Sterling

    2013-01-01

    Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…

  9. Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

  10. Turkey and Iran Transcaucasia Policy: Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А V Suleimanov

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Turkey and Iran Transcaucasia modern foreign policy is analyzed. As is known, Turkey and Iran historically were the competing parties for spheres of influence in Transcaucasia, as well as Russia, the USA and the Great Britain. Regional relations between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are discussed in context of Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia-South Ossetia conflicts and Caspian problem.

  11. Analysis of State Bullying Laws and Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart-Cassel, Victoria; Bell, Ariana; Springer, J. Fred

    2011-01-01

    Bullying in schools has become widely viewed as an urgent social, health, and education concern that has moved to the forefront of public debate on school legislation and policy. The Columbine High School shooting in 1999 was the first of many high-profile incidents of violent behavior that appeared to implicate bullying as an underlying cause…

  12. SECURITY POLICIES APPROACHED BY VALUE ANALYSIS CONCEPTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florina Oana Varlanuta

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper intends to redefine the role of the end users of the Internet facilities, in the process of creation of more secure transactions on the Internet, in respect of their privacy. In this context, the purpose is to introduce the use of end user (customer value concept in the process of Security policy framework design.

  13. Avian Influenza Policy Analysis | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Governments in Southeast Asia have adopted a range of policies aimed at controlling the disease in animals, preventing its spread to humans and strengthening national preparedness for an avian influenza pandemic. The Asia Partnership for Avian Influenza Research (APAIR) brings together national research agencies ...

  14. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PRACTICES OF THE STATE YOUTH POLICY IN THE MODERN WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Samohvalov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the author examines a number of foreign cases of practical realization of state youth policy for example the USA, Germany and the Republic of Kazakhstan. The choice of these cases is due to the fact that these countries have an extensive practice of state youth policy. The second factor in the choice of case studies is the fundamental difference between the political systems of countries and as a consequence of the institutional arrangements and the technological features of established models of state youth policy. And fi nally, the third factor is that these States represent different political and cultural traditions. These differences between the traditions have an impact on the diversity of the state youth policy (as the US are a classic example of Western «pluralist» system of youth policy; Germany – West European model of youth policy; Kazakhstan is a bright representative of an effective model of youth policy in the former Soviet Union. Special attention is given to General and specifi c features identified on the basis of comparative analysis, the study of foreign models of youth policy, as well as possible their application in the process of realization of the state youth policy of the Russian Federation.

  15. Constructing Bullying in Ontario, Canada: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winton, Sue; Tuters, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    As the prevalence and negative effects of bullying become widely known, people around the world seem desperate to solve the bullying "problem". A sizeable body of research about many aspects of bullying and a plethora of anti-bullying programmes and policies now exist. This critical policy analysis asks: how does Ontario, Canada's…

  16. Health policy, health systems research and analysis capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis (HPSR&A) is an applied science that deals with complexity as it tries to provide lessons, tools and methods to understand and improve health systems and health policy. It is defined by the kinds of questions asked rather than a particular methodology.

  17. Policy analysis of the English graduation benchmark in Taiwan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author ...

  18. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Final technical report / statistical compilation of the ICT sector and policy analysis : a communication for development approach to scientific training and research and its extension digital transformations; seeking applied frameworks and indicators. Download PDF. Studies. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy ...

  19. Operations and Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

  20. Tourism policy analysis: the case of post-independence Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Nyakunu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism policy is an important domain for tourism researchers. Despite its significance, the analysis and unpacking of the making of tourism policy has so far attracted only limited attention in the global South. This paper reports on the case study of tourism policy in post-independence Namibia. It is disclosed that policy development is led by professional knowledge in support of the leading interest groups in the country's tourism economy, namely large local and private sector enterprises. By contrast, the role of small firms (SMEs, which constitute the largest segment of tourism firms in Namibia, is marginal.

  1. Noise policy: sound policy? A meta level analysis and evaluation of noise policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, M.

    2013-01-01

    Due to its negative health effects, noise policy has been developed in the Netherlands during the last four decades, aimed at preventing and reducing noise by road and railway traffic, industry and aviation. Academic literature illustrated that significant changes have occurred in many sectoral

  2. Experiences with a dialogue process between policy makers and global modellers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Daalen, C.E.; Thissen, W.A.H.; Berk, M.M.

    1998-01-01

    Between 1995 and 1997, a series of five workshops, henceforth called the Delft process, took place with the aim to explore and enhance use of the IMAGE 2 model to support international climate negotiations. The IMAGE 2 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The workshops facilitated a dialogue between policy makers and scientists involved in the development and applications of the IMAGE 2 model. In this way, policy makers would benefit from the policy makers on how to improve the policy relevance of the IMAGE 2 model. The evaluation at the end of the workshop series showed that participants have used information from the workshop at international negotiation conferences and in preparation of policy documents. The process shows that creating a forum for direct science-policy interactions can be very useful and productive, and has confirmed the importance of creating an open and constructive atmosphere between policy makers, and between policy makers and analysts, to enhance utilisation of scientific knowledge. The authors' analysis also suggests that many factors have to be 'in the right position at the right time and place' to achieve such a success, and that it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of biases in processes like this. 33 refs

  3. Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. SALPUTRA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

  4. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    delegation to honor former South Korean President Kim Dae- jung ; a resumption of activity at the Kaesong Industrial Complex; bilateral talks between U.S...task is more urgent or more important than solving the people’s food problem and eating problem.”21 Pyongyang currently faces the archetypical ...1, 2007. Jung Sung-ki. Kim Jong-il Interested in Vietnamese-style Reform Policy, Korea Times. October 28, 2007. 65 Hong, Ihk-pyo. A Shift Toward

  5. Social media for public health: an exploratory policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L Suzanne

    2015-02-01

    To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of existing policies. This research used a mixed methods approach. A content analysis of social media policies from European institutions, non-government organizations (NGOs) and social media platforms was conducted. Next, individuals responsible for social media in their organization or projects completed a survey about their social media policy. Seventy-five per cent of institutions, NGOs and platforms had a social media policy available. The primary aspects covered within existing policies included data and privacy protection, intellectual property and copyright protection and regulations for the engagement in social media. Policies were intended to regulate staff use, to secure the liability of the institution and social responsibility. Respondents also stressed the importance of self-responsibility when using social media. This study of social media policies for public health in Europe provides a first snapshot of the existence and characteristics of social media policies among European health organizations. Policies tended to focus on legal aspects, rather than the health of the social media user. The effect of such policies on social media adoption and usage behaviour remains to be examined. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  6. A Policy Analysis of Strategies to Manage Medical Holdovers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jones, Tammie M

    2005-01-01

    This study is a policy analysis of the Community Based Health Care Initiative (CBHCI) implemented to address the problems for Soldiers mobilized and deployed in support of Operations Noble Eagle, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom...

  7. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  8. A simultaneous equations model of fiscal policy interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allers, Maarten A.; Elhorst, J. Paul

    Existing studies of fiscal policy interactions are based on single equation (SE) models of either taxation or expenditures, without specifying the underlying social welfare function, without taking account of budget constraints and without allowing for cost differences between jurisdictions. Taking

  9. A fully feminist foreign policy? : A postcolonial feminist analysis of Sweden's Feminist Foreign Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Nylund, Mia-Lie

    2017-01-01

    This thesis is a postcolonial feminist discourse analysis of Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy. Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy is unique to the world, but it is not the only case of incorporating a gender perspective as a central part of national or international politics. Feminism and gender perspectives are increasingly receiving attention and space in global politics. The Swedish case could therefore inform us about where politics are heading. Previous research on the Feminist Foreign Pol...

  10. Analysis of your professional liability insurance policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SADUSK, J F; HASSARD, H; WATERSON, R

    1958-01-01

    The most important lessons for the physician to learn in regard to his professional liability insurance coverage are the following:1. The physician should carefully read his professional liability policy and should secure the educated aid of his attorney and his insurance broker, if they are conversant with this field.2. He should particularly read the definition of coverage and carefully survey the exclusion clauses which may deny him coverage under certain circumstances.3. If the physician is in partnership or in a group, he should be certain that he has contingent partnership coverage.4. The physician should accept coverage only from an insurance carrier of sufficient size and stability that he can be sure his coverage will be guaranteed for "latent liability" claims as the years go along-certainly for his lifetime.5. The insurance carrier offering the professional liability policy should be prepared to offer coverages up to at least $100,000/$300,000.6. The physician should be assured that the insurance carrier has claims-handling personnel and legal counsel who are experienced and expert in the professional liability field and who are locally available for service.7. The physician is best protected by a local or state group program, next best by a national group program, and last, by individual coverage.8. The physician should look with suspicion on a cancellation clause in which his policy may be summarily cancelled on brief notice.9. The physician should not buy professional liability insurance on the basis of price alone; adequacy of coverage and service and a good insurance company for his protection should be the deciding factors.

  11. Social determinants of health and health equity policy research: exploring the use, misuse, and nonuse of policy analysis theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Embrett, Mark G; Randall, G E

    2014-05-01

    Despite a dramatic growth in SDH/HE (social determinants of health/health equity) public policy research and demonstrated government interest in promoting equity in health policies, health inequities are actually growing among some populations and there is little evidence that "healthy public policies" are being adopted and implemented. Moreover, these issues are typically failing to even reach governments' policy agendas, which is a critical step towards serious debate and the identification of policy options. This systematic review pursues three main objectives. First, is to identify barriers to SDH/HE issues reaching the government policy agenda. Second, to evaluate the characteristics of peer-reviewed research articles that utilize common policy analysis theories. And third, to determine the extent to which the SDH/HE literature utilizes common policy analysis theories. Our systematic review, conducted in June 2012, identified 6200 SDH/HE related articles in the peer-reviewed literature; however, only seven articles explicitly used a commonly recognized policy analysis theory to inform their analysis. Our analysis revealed that the SDH/HE policy literature appears to be focused on advocacy rather than analysis and that the use of policy analysis theory is extremely limited. Our results also suggest that when such theories are incorporated into an analysis they are often not comprehensively employed. We propose explanations for this non-use and misuse of policy analysis theory, and conclude that researchers may have greater influence in helping to get SDH/HE issues onto government policy agendas if they gain a greater understanding of the policy process and the value of incorporating policy analysis theories into their research. Using a policy analysis lens to help identify why healthy public policies are typically not being adopted is an important step towards moving beyond advocacy to understanding and addressing some of the political barriers to reforms

  12. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  13. So different, yet so similar: meta-analysis and policy modeling of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilians and Indians.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Zammar

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the global expansion of clinical trials and the expectations of the rise of the emerging economies known as BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China, the understanding of factors that affect the willingness to participate in clinical trials of patients from those countries assumes a central role in the future of health research. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilian patients and then we compared it with Indian patients (with results of another SRMA previously conducted by our group through a system dynamics model. RESULTS: Five studies were included in the SRMA of Brazilian patients. Our main findings are 1 the major motivation for Brazilian patients to participate in clinical trials is altruism, 2 monetary reimbursement is the least important factor motivating Brazilian patients, 3 the major barrier for Brazilian patients to not participate in clinical trials is the fear of side effects, and 4 Brazilian patients are more likely willing to participate in clinical trials than Indians. CONCLUSION: Our study provides important insights for investigators and sponsors for planning trials in Brazil (and India in the future. Ignoring these results may lead to unnecessary fund/time spending. More studies are needed to validate our results and for better understanding of this poorly studied theme.

  14. So different, yet so similar: meta-analysis and policy modeling of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilians and Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammar, Guilherme; Meister, Henrique; Shah, Jatin; Phadtare, Amruta; Cofiel, Luciana; Pietrobon, Ricardo

    2010-12-16

    With the global expansion of clinical trials and the expectations of the rise of the emerging economies known as BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the understanding of factors that affect the willingness to participate in clinical trials of patients from those countries assumes a central role in the future of health research. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) of willingness to participate in clinical trials among Brazilian patients and then we compared it with Indian patients (with results of another SRMA previously conducted by our group) through a system dynamics model. Five studies were included in the SRMA of Brazilian patients. Our main findings are 1) the major motivation for Brazilian patients to participate in clinical trials is altruism, 2) monetary reimbursement is the least important factor motivating Brazilian patients, 3) the major barrier for Brazilian patients to not participate in clinical trials is the fear of side effects, and 4) Brazilian patients are more likely willing to participate in clinical trials than Indians. Our study provides important insights for investigators and sponsors for planning trials in Brazil (and India) in the future. Ignoring these results may lead to unnecessary fund/time spending. More studies are needed to validate our results and for better understanding of this poorly studied theme.

  15. The French nuclear policy. A model for security policy in North-East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, K.

    1998-01-01

    Between the end of the second world war and the collapse of the Berlin wall, the French diplomacy was based on the nuclear policy in a solid and coherent way. This nuclear policy was an 'incarnation' of the national security conception, allowing France to recover its political, military and economical rank on the international scene. The most important characteristic of the French nuclear policy concerns the commercialization of the nuclear energy which aims to ensuring the national security through the building up of a financial, technological and political 'reserve'. In front of the domination of the USA and USSR during the cold war era, NE Asia had a similar geostrategic configuration as Western Europe. It concerns in particular the massive application of nuclear energy for both military and industrial purposes. The bases of the security policy in this region refers to the real use of the nuclear weapon by the USA against Japan in 1945. The French nuclear policy may be considered as a model for the building of the security policy of NE Asia, in particular through the commercialization of the nuclear technology between the countries in concern. This nuclear approach would allow the countries of these region to change their present day national defense policy into an economical and military cooperation. (J.S.)

  16. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  17. Southeast Regional Clean Energy Policy Analysis (Revised)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaren, J.

    2011-04-01

    More than half of the electricity produced in the southeastern states is fuelled by coal. Although the region produces some coal, most of the states depend heavily on coal imports. Many of the region's aging coal power facilities are planned for retirement within the next 20 years. However, estimates indicate that a 20% increase in capacity is needed over that time to meet the rapidly growing demand. The most common incentives for energy efficiency in the Southeast are loans and rebates; however, total public spending on energy efficiency is limited. The most common state-level policies to support renewable energy development are personal and corporate tax incentives and loans. The region produced 1.8% of the electricity from renewable resources other than conventional hydroelectricity in 2009, half of the national average. There is significant potential for development of a biomass market in the region, as well as use of local wind, solar, methane-to-energy, small hydro, and combined heat and power resources. Options are offered for expanding and strengthening state-level policies such as decoupling, integrated resource planning, building codes, net metering, and interconnection standards to support further clean energy development. Benefits would include energy security, job creation, insurance against price fluctuations, increased value of marginal lands, and local and global environmental paybacks.

  18. Advancing team-based primary health care: a comparative analysis of policies in western Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suter, Esther; Mallinson, Sara; Misfeldt, Renee; Boakye, Omenaa; Nasmith, Louise; Wong, Sabrina T

    2017-07-17

    We analyzed and compared primary health care (PHC) policies in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to understand how they inform the design and implementation of team-based primary health care service delivery. The goal was to develop policy imperatives that can advance team-based PHC in Canada. We conducted comparative case studies (n = 3). The policy analysis included: Context review: We reviewed relevant information (2007 to 2014) from databases and websites. Policy review and comparative analysis: We compared and contrasted publically available PHC policies. Key informant interviews: Key informants (n = 30) validated narratives prepared from the comparative analysis by offering contextual information on potential policy imperatives. Advisory group and roundtable: An expert advisory group guided this work and a key stakeholder roundtable event guided prioritization of policy imperatives. The concept of team-based PHC varies widely across and within the three provinces. We noted policy gaps related to team configuration, leadership, scope of practice, role clarity and financing of team-based care; few policies speak explicitly to monitoring and evaluation of team-based PHC. We prioritized four policy imperatives: (1) alignment of goals and policies at different system levels; (2) investment of resources for system change; (3) compensation models for all members of the team; and (4) accountability through collaborative practice metrics. Policies supporting team-based PHC have been slow to emerge, lacking a systematic and coordinated approach. Greater alignment with specific consideration of financing, reimbursement, implementation mechanisms and performance monitoring could accelerate systemic transformation by removing some well-known barriers to team-based care.

  19. A Policy Analysis of Smoke-Free Legislation in Kentucky.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehler, Stephanie; Hahn, Ellen J

    2016-05-01

    This article presents a policy analysis of proposed smoke-free legislation in Kentucky during the 2015 General Assembly. Kingdon's three streams model of agenda setting is used to analyze the failure to pass HB145. Secondhand smoke exposure and related deaths are a significant public health problem in Kentucky, a state with one of the highest smoking rates in the U.S. HB145, a comprehensive smoke-free bill, was designed to protect workers and the general public from secondhand smoke and e-cigarette aerosol in enclosed workplaces and public places, with few exemptions. The bill faced intense criticism from opponents who were concerned about violation of personal and business rights and the belief that the decision should be addressed on a local level. HB145 passed the House with amendments but failed to receive a hearing in the Senate. Failure of the smoke-free legislation was due to partisanship, fragmentation of advocacy groups, lack of political bargaining, and conflict of values. As in past years, the policy window did not open for state smoke-free legislation in 2015. © The Author(s) 2016.

  20. Assessing The Policy Relevance of Regional Air Quality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    This work presents a framework for discussing the policy relevance of models, and regional air quality models in particular. We define four criteria: 1) The scientific status of the model; 2) Its ability to address primary environmental concerns; 3) The position of modeled environmental issues on the political agenda; and 4) The role of scientific input into the policy process. This framework is applied to current work simulating the transport of nitric acid in Asia with the ATMOS-N model, to past studies on air pollution transport in Europe with the EMEP model, and to future applications of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) Models-3. The Lagrangian EMEP model provided critical input to the development of the 1994 Oslo and 1999 Gothenburg Protocols to the Convention on Long-Range Transbound- ary Air Pollution, as well as to the development of EU directives, via its role as a component of the RAINS integrated assessment model. Our work simulating reactive nitrogen in Asia follows the European example in part, with the choice of ATMOS-N, a regional Lagrangian model to calculate source-receptor relationships for the RAINS- Asia integrated assessment model. However, given differences between ATMOS-N and the EMEP model, as well as differences between the scientific and political cli- mates facing Europe ten years ago and Asia today, the role of these two models in the policy process is very different. We characterize the different aspects of policy relevance between these models using our framework, and consider how the current generation US EPA air quality model compares, in light of its Eulerian structure, dif- ferent objectives, and the policy context of the US.

  1. Policy-Making Theory as an Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis: Implications for Research Design and Professional Advocacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Michael R

    2016-01-01

    Policy studies are a recent addition to the American Physical Therapy Association's Research Agenda and are critical to our understanding of various federal, state, local, and organizational policies on the provision of physical therapist services across the continuum of care. Policy analyses that help to advance the profession's various policy agendas will require relevant theoretical frameworks to be credible. The purpose of this perspective article is to: (1) demonstrate the use of a policy-making theory as an analytical framework in a policy analysis and (2) discuss how sound policy analysis can assist physical therapists in becoming more effective change agents, policy advocates, and partners with other relevant stakeholder groups. An exploratory study of state agency policy responses to address work-related musculoskeletal disorders is provided as a contemporary example to illustrate key points and to demonstrate the importance of selecting a relevant analytical framework based on the context of the policy issue under investigation. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

  2. Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

    2015-07-09

    The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

  3. Creating 'healthy built environment' legislation in Australia; a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Patrick; Kent, Jennifer; Sainsbury, Peter; Marie-Thow, Anne; Baum, Fran; Friel, Sharon; McCue, Peter

    2017-09-05

    Influencing healthy public policy through health advocacy remains challenging. This policy analysis research uses theories of agenda setting to understand how health came to be considered for specific mention in legislation arising from land-use planning system reform in New South Wales, Australia. This qualitative study follows critical realist methodology to conduct a policy analysis of the case. We collected data from purposively sampled in-depth interviews (n = 9), a focus group and documentary analysis. We used three classic policy process (agenda setting) theories to develop an analytic framework for explaining the empirical data: Multiple Streams; Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Advocacy Coalition Framework. The reform process presented a window of opportunity that opened incrementally over a 2 year period. The opportunity was grasped by individual policy entrepreneurs who subsequently formed a coalition of healthy planning advocates focused on strategically positioning 'health' as legislative objective for the new system. The actual point of influence seemed to appear suddenly when challenges to a perceived economic development agenda within the reforms peaked, and the health objective, see as non-threatening by all stakeholders, was taken up. Our analysis demonstrates how this particular point of influence followed sustained long-term activity by health advocates prior to and during the reform process. We demonstrate a theory-driven policy analysis of health advocacy efforts to influence an instance of major land-use planning reform. The application of multiple policy process theories enables deep understanding of what is required to effectively advocate for healthy public policy. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Stakeholders Analysis of Policy-Making Process: The Case of Timber Legality Policy on Private Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyaningrum Mulyaningrum

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to identify and measure the relationships among stakeholders that influence the process of policy-making in defining legality of timber from private forests. The study focuses on the policy-making process of the Ministry of Forestry Regulation P.38/Menhut-II/2009 on Standard and Guidelines for Assessment of Sustainable Forest Management Performance and Timber Legality Verification of Concessionaire or of the Private Forest License Holder as the subject that has been implemented in several private forest management units as follow: Giri Mukti Wana Tirta in Lampung, Koperasi Serba Usaha APIK in Bali, Koperasi Hutan Jaya Lestari in South East Sulawesi, and Koperasi Wana Lestari Menoreh Kulonprogo in Yogyakarta. This research used a qualitative approach and the analysis method used in this research is a modified-stakeholder analysis that developed by ODA (1995, Reitbergen et al. (1998, and Mayer (2005. The stakeholder analysis shows that the interests and influences do not consider private forest farmers as primary stakeholder during  the process of policy formulation.  The strong national and international interests, supported by high authority could not be influnced by the role of the NGOs and academicians. The imbalance of responsibilities, rights, and revenues that was experienced by  farmers as the manager of private forest when started implementing the policy was more as burdens, it means implementation of the policy was more as burdens. Strong relationships between the Ministry of Forestry with the state as a core could not empower the relationship with private forest farmers. As result, policy assumptions cannot be implemented properly.Keywords: policy making process, timber legality, private forest, stakeholder.DOI: 10.7226/jtfm.19.2.156

  5. A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

    1998-01-01

    How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

  6. Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, Ryan; Ghonima, Mohamed; Kleissl, Jan; Tynan, George; Victor, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: • We offer a modeling tool to study technology and policy variables for microgrids. • We construct comprehensive load profiles for three likely adopters of microgrids. • Investment in natural gas generators is key to enabling business models. • Solar PV and storage are optimal but as supplements to gas generation. • Business models are highly robust to sensitivity in technology and policy variables.

  7. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland Y H Silitonga

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

  8. Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

    2016-07-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

  9. Public participation in the process of local public health policy, using policy network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yukyung; Kim, Chang-Yup; You, Myoung Soon; Lee, Kun Sei; Park, Eunyoung

    2014-11-01

    To assess the current public participation in-local health policy and its implications through the analysis of policy networks in health center programs. We examined the decision-making process in sub-health center installations and the implementation process in metabolic syndrome management program cases in two districts ('gu's) of Seoul. Participants of the policy network were selected by the snowballing method and completed self-administered questionnaires. Actors, the interactions among actors, and the characteristics of the network were analyzed by Netminer. The results showed that the public is not yet actively participating in the local public health policy processes of decision-making and implementation. In the decision-making process, most of the network actors were in the public sector, while the private sector was a minor actor and participated in only a limited number of issues after the major decisions were made. In the implementation process, the program was led by the health center, while other actors participated passively. Public participation in Korean public health policy is not yet well activated. Preliminary discussions with various stakeholders, including civil society, are needed before making important local public health policy decisions. In addition, efforts to include local institutions and residents in the implementation process with the public officials are necessary to improve the situation.

  10. THEORIES AND MODELS OF FISCAL POLICY

    OpenAIRE

    Alina Georgiana SOLOMON

    2013-01-01

    Within the paper “Theories and models of fiscal policy” we made a presentation of the main fiscal theories elaborated by the renowned representatives of the Physiocratic School, of the classic English School and last, but not least, the neoclassic approach of the aforementioned in the vision of Frank Ramsey and Arthur Laffer. The purpose of the paper is to highlight which was the contribution of the fiscal theories and models formulated by scholars and to what extent they contributed to devel...

  11. Bangladesh policy on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biswas, Tuhin; Pervin, Sonia; Tanim, Md Imtiaz Alam; Niessen, Louis; Islam, Anwar

    2017-06-19

    This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage.

  12. THREE MODELS OF NATIONAL CRIMINAL POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Kleymenov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. Identification of the model of criminal policy in a particular state is a complex task that requires independent research.The subject. The article is devoted to modeling of the national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization. The article discusses various models of criminal policy in the conditions of globalization.The purpose of the author is to describe the basic models of national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization.The methodology. The author uses the method of analysis and synthesis, formal legal method as well as sociological methods (survey.The results, scope of application. The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. The sovereign model is based on doctrine of weak state and a strong combat criminal activity. It is distinguished by the pursuit of the realization of the equality of all before the law, criminal strategic and political planning system with a clear definition of goals and objectives; criminological security. The reform of criminal policy is characterized byuncertainty goals and objectives, utopianism and pretentiousness, dependence on standards of the international organization, the lower prestige of criminology, reduction of social programs, lobbying of group interests, permanent amendments to the criminal and criminal procedure legislation. Experimental model of criminal policy is connected with approbation of such technologies of management of society that are criminal and contrary to human experience in fighting crime.Conclusions. Criminal

  13. THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

    2014-09-30

    This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. An Affinity-to-Commons Model of Public Support For Environmental Energy Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merrill, Ryan; Sintov, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    As atmospheric CO 2 continues to rise above 450 PPM, policymakers struggle with uncertainty concerning predictors of citizen support for environmental energy policies (EEPs) and preferences for their design, topics which have received limited attention in empirical literature. We present an original model of policy support based on citizens’ affinity-to-commons: pathways by which individuals enjoy natural public goods that in turn shape preferences between alternative policy mechanisms. We evaluate this model using a survey of southern California electricity customers, with results indicating the model's utility in predicting public support of EEP. Stronger community ties are associated with preferences for “pull”-type subsidies, whereas stronger connections to natural commons are linked to support for both “pull” and “push”-type sanctions. Findings have implications for coalition building as advocates may engender support for green energy policy by framing sanctions as protecting natural commons, and framing subsidies either in this same way and/or as producing benefits for communities. - Highlights: • A commons-oriented model of citizen support for environmental energy policy is proposed (Thaler (2012)). • A factor analysis identifies local tax shifts, green subsidies, and energy taxes (Schultz et al. (1995)). • Community connections predict support for policies with employing subsidies (Sabatier (2006)). • Connection to nature predicts support for policies using both sanctions and subsidies. (Stern et al. (1999)).

  15. Mathematical modelling informs HIV prevention policy in China ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-27

    Apr 27, 2016 ... IDRC-funded research is using mathematical modelling to influence local and national policies in China to reduce HIV transmission. Treatment as prevention Earlier research conducted under Modelling and controlling infectious diseases project showed that providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) to ...

  16. Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489

    2011-01-01

    The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

  17. A Policy Analysis of Student Attendance Standards Related to State Education Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guilliams, Mary Elizabeth

    2014-01-01

    This paper is a project report of a policy analysis of state attendance information available to public schools. Current state attendance information rarely expands beyond compulsory attendance law. It is vague, non-existent or difficult to find. Research provides strong links between student attendance and achievement. Informed school leaders…

  18. Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald A Brand

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Alcohol consumption causes an estimated 4% of the global disease burden, prompting governments to impose regulations to mitigate the adverse effects of alcohol. To assist public health leaders and policymakers, the authors developed a composite indicator-the Alcohol Policy Index-to gauge the strength of a country's alcohol control policies.The Index generates a score based on policies from five regulatory domains-physical availability of alcohol, drinking context, alcohol prices, alcohol advertising, and operation of motor vehicles. The Index was applied to the 30 countries that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between policy score and per capita alcohol consumption. Countries attained a median score of 42.4 of a possible 100 points, ranging from 14.5 (Luxembourg to 67.3 (Norway. The analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between score and consumption (r = -0.57; p = 0.001: a 10-point increase in the score was associated with a one-liter decrease in absolute alcohol consumption per person per year (95% confidence interval, 0.4-1.5 l. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated the robustness of the Index by showing that countries' scores and ranks remained relatively stable in response to variations in methodological assumptions.The strength of alcohol control policies, as estimated by the Alcohol Policy Index, varied widely among 30 countries located in Europe, Asia, North America, and Australia. The study revealed a clear inverse relationship between policy strength and alcohol consumption. The Index provides a straightforward tool for facilitating international comparisons. In addition, it can help policymakers review and strengthen existing regulations aimed at minimizing alcohol-related harm and estimate the likely impact of policy changes.

  19. Model Based Analysis of Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Taolue; Han, Tingting; Kammueller, Florian

    2016-01-01

    In order to detect malicious insider attacks it is important to model and analyse infrastructures and policies of organisations and the insiders acting within them. We extend formal approaches that allow modelling such scenarios by quantitative aspects to enable a precise analysis of security...

  20. Data driven mathematical models for policy making

    OpenAIRE

    Nannyonga, Betty

    2011-01-01

    This thesis consists of two papers. 1. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, J.Y.T. Mugisha and L.S. Luboobi: The Dynamics,causes and possible prevention of Hepaititis E outbreaks. 2. Betty Nannyonga, D.J.T. Sumpter, andStam Nicolis: A dynamical systems approach tosocial and economic development. The first paper deals with a deterministic approach of modelling a Hepatitis E outbreak whenmalaria is endemic in a population. We design three models based on the epidemiology ofHepatitis E, malaria, and...

  1. A social network analysis of Canadian food insecurity policy actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Lynn; Jessiman-Perreault, Geneviève; Mah, Catherine L; Godley, Jenny

    2018-01-31

    This paper aims to: (i) visualize the networks of food insecurity policy actors in Canada, (ii) identify potential food insecurity policy entrepreneurs (i.e., individuals with voice, connections, and persistence) within these networks, and (iii) examine the political landscape for action on food insecurity as revealed by social network analysis. A survey was administered to 93 Canadian food insecurity policy actors. They were each asked to nominate 3 individuals whom they believed to be policy entrepreneurs. Ego-centred social network maps (sociograms) were generated based on data on nominees and nominators. Seventy-two percent of the actors completed the survey; 117 unique nominations ensued. Eleven actors obtained 3 or more nominations and thus were considered policy entrepreneurs. The majority of actors nominated actors from the same province (71.5%) and with a similar approach to theirs to addressing food insecurity (54.8%). Most nominees worked in research, charitable, and other nongovernmental organizations. Networks of Canadian food insecurity policy actors exist but are limited in scope and reach, with a paucity of policy entrepreneurs from political, private, or governmental jurisdictions. The networks are divided between food-based solution actors and income-based solution actors, which might impede collaboration among those with differing approaches to addressing food insecurity.

  2. A game theory analysis of green infrastructure stormwater management policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    William, Reshmina; Garg, Jugal; Stillwell, Ashlynn S.

    2017-09-01

    Green stormwater infrastructure has been demonstrated as an innovative water resources management approach that addresses multiple challenges facing urban environments. However, there is little consensus on what policy strategies can be used to best incentivize green infrastructure adoption by private landowners. Game theory, an analysis framework that has historically been under-utilized within the context of stormwater management, is uniquely suited to address this policy question. We used a cooperative game theory framework to investigate the potential impacts of different policy strategies used to incentivize green infrastructure installation. The results indicate that municipal regulation leads to the greatest reduction in pollutant loading. However, the choice of the "best" regulatory approach will depend on a variety of different factors including politics and financial considerations. Large, downstream agents have a disproportionate share of bargaining power. Results also reveal that policy impacts are highly dependent on agents' spatial position within the stormwater network, leading to important questions of social equity and environmental justice.

  3. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

    2016-05-01

    Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

  4. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Fry, John

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applicati...

  5. A Comparative Analysis of Some Policy Options to Reduce Rationing in the UK’s NHS: Lessons from a General Equilibrium Model Incorporating Positive Health Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutten, M.M.; Reed, G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper seeks to determine the macro-economic impacts of changes in health care provision. The resource allocation issues have been explored in theory, by applying the Rybczynski theorem, and empirically, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the UK with a detailed health

  6. Bureaucrats Versus the Ballot Box in Foreign Policy Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis of the Bureaucratic Politics Model and the Poliheuristic Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Eben J.; Redd, Steven B.

    2004-01-01

    The bureaucratic politics model and the poliheuristic theory are used to examine how political advice presented in various contexts influences choice. Organizational advisers who offer endogenous political advice are compared with situations in which the decision maker is offered advice by a separate, or exogenous, political adviser. Results show…

  7. Modeling policy issues in a world of imperfect competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

    1998-01-01

    General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model the beha......General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model...... as well as on shareholders' aggregate demand...

  8. Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fry

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we draw upon the close relationship between statistical physics and mathematical finance to develop a suite of models for financial bubbles and crashes. By modifying previous approaches, we are able to derive novel analytical formulae for evaluation problems and for the expected timing of future change points. In particular, we help to explain why previous approaches have systematically overstated the timing of changes in market regime. The list of potential empirical applications is deep and wide ranging, and includes contemporary housing bubbles, the Eurozone crisis and the Crash of 2008.

  9. An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hoon Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

  10. An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

    2014-01-01

    The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

  11. Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croll, Peter R

    2011-02-01

    To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Modelling and Analysing Access Control Policies in XACML 3.0

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramli, Carroline Dewi Puspa Kencana

    and verification of properties of XACML policies. Overall, we focus into two different area. The first part focuses on the access control language. More specifically our focus is on the understanding XACML 3.0. The second part focuses on how we use Logic Programming (LP) to model access control policies. We show...... semantics is described normatively using natural language. The use of English text in standardisation leads to the risk of misinterpretation and ambiguity. In order to avoid this drawback, we define an abstract syntax of XACML 3.0 and a formal XACML semantics. Second, we propose a logic-based XACML analysis...... framework using Answer Set Programming (ASP). With ASP we model an XACML PDP that loads XACML policies and evaluates XACML requests against these policies. The expressivity of ASP and the existence of efficient implementations of the answer set semantics provide the means for declarative specification...

  13. Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarica, Kemal; Tyner, Wallace E.

    2013-01-01

    This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis. - Highlights: • Evaluates US impacts of three energy/climate policies and a carbon tax (CT) • Analysis done with bottom–up MARKAL model coupled with a macro model • Electricity clean energy standard very close to

  14. Values in Health Policy – A Concept Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lida Shams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Despite the significant role “values” play in decision-making no definition or attributes regarding the concept have been provided in health policy-making. This study aimed to clarify the defining attributes of a concept of value and its irrelevant structures in health policy-making. We anticipate our findings will help reduce the semantic ambiguities associated with the use of “values” and other concepts such as principles, criteria, attitudes, and beliefs. Methods An extensive search of literature was carried out using electronic data base and library. The overall search strategy yielded about 1540 articles and 450 additional records. Based on traditional qualitative research, studies were purposefully selected and the coding of articles continued until data saturation was reached. Accordingly, 31 articles, 2 books, and 5 other documents were selected for the review. We applied Walker and Avant’s method of concept analysis in studying the phenomenon. Definitions, applications, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of the concept of “value in health policy-making” were extracted. We also identified similarities and differences that exist between and within them. Results We identified eight major attributes of “value in health policy-making”: ideological origin, affect one’s choices, more resistant to change over time, source of motivation, ability to sacrifice one’s interest, goal-oriented nature for community, trans-situational and subjectivity. Other features pinpointed include alternatives, antecedents, and consequences. Alternative, antecedents and consequences case may have more or fewer attributes or may lack one of these attributes and at the same time have other distinctive ones. Conclusion Despite the use of the value framework, ambiguities still persist in providing definition of the concept value in health policy-making. Understanding the concept of value in health policy-making may provide extra

  15. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  16. Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yurong; Wang, Yuanfeng

    2013-01-01

    With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented. -- Highlights: •The existing policies implemented in China from three aspects are presented and analysed. •The Government's involvement is the most essential effective way to promote building-energy efficiency. •Six aspects of barriers in promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified. •The legal system and administrative issues constitute the major barriers. •Three policy proposals to further promote building energy efficiency in China are proposed

  17. Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    1 avr. 2010 ... Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2005, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been financing the master's program in health and population at the Institut supérieure des sciences de la population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

  18. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis. As the presence and influence of information and communication technologies (ICTs) continues to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. However, much work needs to be done before the linkages between economic development ...

  19. Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    use

    2011-12-07

    Dec 7, 2011 ... accomplished based on society values of products, internal and external product and the third row of matrix is gotten from discrepancy between first and second rows and utilized in policy analysis. Also, the calculations of relative advantage indicators are presented in Table 2. The shadowy value of opened ...

  20. Economic evaluation and Applications of the Policy Analysis Matrix ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    By using benefit to costs index, internal rate of return, net present value and policy analysis matrix were calculated. The results show that intercropping was affordable than sole cropping. Sole cropping of these crops had no relative advantage, while mixed cropping had a relative advantage than sole cropping. Nominal ...

  1. Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Building Capacity in Health Systems and Policy Analysis in sub-Saharan Africa. Since 2005, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has been financing the master's program in health and population at the Institut supérieure des sciences de la population (ISSP), Université de Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. However, after ...

  2. A Critical Policy Analysis of Texas' "Closing the Gaps 2015"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Katherine Cumings; Thackik, Stefani Leigh

    2016-01-01

    This critical policy analysis uses critical race theory to provide a counter narrative to the P-16 initiative in Texas known as "Closing the Gaps 2015". Findings indicate that while these reforms aim to increase educational access and achievement for people of color, they fall short of addressing systemic inequities such as enduring…

  3. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Analysis of Ethiopia's National ICT Policy and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is ... other technologies it enables to transform organizations and redefine social relations. In essence, ... public policies and disciplines. First, document analysis was carried out to study.

  4. Research, Evaluation, and Policy Analysis: Heuristics for Disciplined Inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, Yvonna S.; Guba, Egon E.

    Research, evaluation, and policy analysis are elements of inquiry whose functions, aims, purposes, intended audiences, and intended outcomes have been confused in the literature discussing how to accomplish them. Using the definition of "disciplined inquiry" provided by Cronbach and Suppes (1969), which defines disciplined inquiry as the…

  5. Analysis of higher education policy frameworks for open and distance education in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellahi, Abida; Zaka, Bilal

    2015-04-01

    The constant rise in demand for higher education has become the biggest challenge for educational planners. This high demand has paved a way for distance education across the globe. This article innovatively analyzes the policy documentation of a major distance education initiative in Pakistan for validity that will identify the utility of policy linkages. The study adopted a qualitative research design that consisted of two steps. In the first step, a content analysis of distance learning policy framework was made. For this purpose, two documents were accessed titled "Framework for Launching Distance Learning Programs in HEIs of Pakistan" and "Guideline on Quality of Distance Education for External Students at the HEIs of Pakistan." In the second step, the policy guidelines mentioned in these two documents were evaluated at two levels. At the first level, the overall policy documents were assessed against a criterion proposed by Cheung, Mirzaei, and Leeder. At the second level, the proposed program of distance learning was assessed against a criterion set by Gellman-Danley and Fetzner and Berge. The distance education program initiative in Pakistan is of promising nature which needs to be assessed regularly. This study has made an initial attempt to assess the policy document against a criterion identified from literature. The analysis shows that the current policy documents do offer some strengths at this initial level, however, they cannot be considered a comprehensive policy guide. The inclusion or correction of missing or vague areas identified in this study would make this policy guideline document a treasured tool for Higher Education Commission (HEC). For distance education policy makers, this distance education policy framework model recognizes several fundamental areas with which they should be concerned. The findings of this study in the light of two different policy framework measures highlight certain opportunities that can help strengthening the

  6. One stop crisis centres: A policy analysis of the Malaysian response to intimate partner violence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Watts Charlotte

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This article aims to investigate the processes, actors and other influencing factors behind the development and the national scale-up of the One Stop Crisis Centre (OSCC policy and the subsequent health model for violence-response. Methods Methods used included policy analysis of legal, policy and regulatory framework documents, and in-depth interviews with key informants from governmental and non-governmental organisations in two States of Malaysia. Results The findings show that women's NGOs and health professionals were instrumental in the formulation and scaling-up of the OSCC policy. However, the subsequent breakdown of the NGO-health coalition negatively impacted on the long-term implementation of the policy, which lacked financial resources and clear policy guidance from the Ministry of Health. Conclusion The findings confirm that a clearly-defined partnership between NGOs and health staff can be very powerful for influencing the legal and policy environment in which health care services for intimate partner violence are developed. It is critical to gain high level support from the Ministry of Health in order to institutionalise the violence-response across the entire health care system. Without clear operational details and resources policy implementation cannot be fully ensured and taken to scale.

  7. A health app developer's guide to law and policy: a multi-sector policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Lisa; Karliychuk, Tanya; Gillies, Donna; Mintzes, Barbara; Raven, Melissa; Grundy, Quinn

    2017-10-02

    Apps targeted at health and wellbeing sit in a rapidly growing industry associated with widespread optimism about their potential to deliver accessible and cost-effective healthcare. App developers might not be aware of all the regulatory requirements and best practice principles are emergent. Health apps are regulated in order to minimise their potential for harm due to, for example, loss of personal health privacy, financial costs, and health harms from delayed or unnecessary diagnosis, monitoring and treatment. We aimed to produce a comprehensive guide to assist app developers in producing health apps that are legally compliant and in keeping with high professional standards of user protection. We conducted a case study analysis of the Australian and related international policy environment for mental health apps to identify relevant sectors, policy actors, and policy solutions. We identified 29 policies produced by governments and non-government organisations that provide oversight of health apps. In consultation with stakeholders, we developed an interactive tool targeted at app developers, summarising key features of the policy environment and highlighting legislative, industry and professional standards around seven relevant domains: privacy, security, content, promotion and advertising, consumer finances, medical device efficacy and safety, and professional ethics. We annotated this developer guidance tool with information about: the relevance of each domain; existing legislative and non-legislative guidance; critiques of existing policy; recommendations for developers; and suggestions for other key stakeholders. We anticipate that mental health apps developed in accordance with this tool will be more likely to conform to regulatory requirements, protect consumer privacy, protect consumer finances, and deliver health benefit; and less likely to attract regulatory penalties, offend consumers and communities, mislead consumers, or deliver health harms. We

  8. The Role Of Modeling Assumptions And Policy Instruments in Evaluating The Global Implications Of U.S. Biofuel Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    The primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of the biofuel policy have centered on the global social and environmental implications of its potential land use effects. In particular, there is an ongoing debate about whether indirect land use change (ILUC) make biofuels a net source, rather sink, of carbon emissions. However, estimates of ILUC induced by biofuel production and use can only be inferred through modeling. This paper evaluates how model structure, underlying assumptions, and the representation of policy instruments influence the results of U.S. biofuel policy simulations. The analysis shows that differences in these factors can lead to divergent model estimates of land use and economic effects. Estimates of the net conversion of forests and grasslands induced by U.S. biofuel policy range from 0.09 ha/1000 gallons described in this paper to 0.73 ha/1000 gallons from early studies in the ILUC change debate. We note that several important factors governing LUC change remain to be examined. Challenges that must be addressed to improve global land use change modeling are highlighted.

  9. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  10. Classical Stasis Theory and the Analysis of Public Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, Gary Layne

    In classical Greece, there was a close tie between rhetoric and the practice and theory of public policy. Gradually, however, rhetoric became increasingly concerned with style and literary criticism, while philosophers began to debate political issues apart from the practical affairs of the polis. Because rhetoric provides a model that can still…

  11. Impulse-response analysis of monetary policy – Visegád group countries case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kateřina Myšková

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4. Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis- data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

  12. Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

    2018-03-01

    Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

  13. Legalization of Educational Public Policies: Analysis of Controversial Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urá Lobato Martins

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a critical analysis of the issue of legalization of public policies that deal with the right to education. Therefore, the literature review will be made, as well as an analysis of some precedents of the Supreme Court on the issue of legalization of this fundamental right. At the end, it will be shown that the right to education generates citizens the subjective rights of audience immediately, the effectiveness of this right.

  14. The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

  15. How can land-use modelling tools inform bioenergy policies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Sarah C.; House, Joanna I.; Diaz-Chavez, Rocio A.; Molnar, Andras; Valin, Hugo; DeLucia, Evan H.

    2011-01-01

    Targets for bioenergy have been set worldwide to mitigate climate change. Although feedstock sources are often ambiguous, pledges in European nations, the United States and Brazil amount to more than 100 Mtoe of biorenewable fuel production by 2020. As a consequence, the biofuel sector is developing rapidly, and it is increasingly important to distinguish bioenergy options that can address energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation from those that cannot. This paper evaluates how bioenergy production affects land-use change (LUC), and to what extent land-use modelling can inform sound decision-making. We identified local and global internalities and externalities of biofuel development scenarios, reviewed relevant data sources and modelling approaches, identified sources of controversy about indirect LUC (iLUC) and then suggested a framework for comprehensive assessments of bioenergy. Ultimately, plant biomass must be managed to produce energy in a way that is consistent with the management of food, feed, fibre, timber and environmental services. Bioenergy production provides opportunities for improved energy security, climate mitigation and rural development, but the environmental and social consequences depend on feedstock choices and geographical location. The most desirable solutions for bioenergy production will include policies that incentivize regionally integrated management of diverse resources with low inputs, high yields, co-products, multiple benefits and minimal risks of iLUC. Many integrated assessment models include energy resources, trade, technological development and regional environmental conditions, but do not account for biodiversity and lack detailed data on the location of degraded and underproductive lands that would be ideal for bioenergy production. Specific practices that would maximize the benefits of bioenergy production regionally need to be identified before a global analysis of bioenergy-related LUC can be accomplished. PMID

  16. Probabilistic economic analysis of green roof benefits for policy design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, C.; Adriaens, P.; Talbot, B.

    2006-01-01

    The installation costs of green roofs continue to deter widespread use of green roof technology. Analyses of the boundary conditions for the cost differential between a green roof and a conventional roof are usually compared to environmental benefits such as storm water reduction and building energy savings. However, evidence is emerging that green roofs may play a role in urban air quality improvement. This paper discussed a methodology for developing probabilistic ranges of benefits and cost analyses. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to prepare a generalized cost-benefit analysis for application to a range of green roof projects. Environmental benefits of roof greening were quantified on a per unit surface area to assess environmental impact at the building scale. Parameters included conventional and green roof installation costs; storm water fees and fee reductions for green roofs; energy costs due to heat flux and the resultant savings through the installation of a green roof and the additional economic valuation of the public health benefits due to air pollution mitigation. Results were then integrated into an economic model to determine the length of time required for a return on investment in a green roof, assuming that a traditional roof would require replacement after 20 years. A net present value analysis was performed for an average-sized university roof. Results of the study showed that a valuation of environmental benefits can reduce the time required for a return on investment in a moderately priced green roof. While reduced installation costs reduced the time required for a return on investment, optimizing the green roof system for maximum environmental benefit had a greater potential to provide a higher return. It was concluded that the benefit of improved air quality should not be ignored by green roof policy-makers as a valuation tool. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig

  17. Generating WS-SecurityPolicy documents via security model transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Meiko

    2009-01-01

    When SOA-based business processes are to be enhanced with security properties, the model-driven business process development approach enables an easier and more reliable security definition compared to manually crafting the security realizations afterwards. In this paper, we outline an appropriate...... security model definition and transformation approach, targeting the WS-SecurityPolicy and WS-BPEL specifications, in order to enable a Web-Service-based secure business process development....

  18. Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

  19. Advancing LGBT Elder Policy and Support Services: The Massachusetts Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krinsky, Lisa; Cahill, Sean R

    2017-12-01

    The Massachusetts-based LGBT Aging Project has trained elder service providers in affirming and culturally competent care for LGBT older adults, supported development of LGBT-friendly meal programs, and advanced LGBT equality under aging policy. Working across sectors, this innovative model launched the country's first statewide Legislative Commission on Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Aging. Advocates are working with policymakers to implement key recommendations, including cultural competency training and data collection in statewide networks of elder services. The LGBT Aging Project's success provides a template for improving services and policy for LGBT older adults throughout the country.

  20. A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyamani, Talal M.

    Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

  1. Early College High Schools: Model Policy Components. Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinth, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    An alarming convergence of factors--diminishing percentages of high school graduates enrolling immediately in postsecondary education, traditionally underserved students comprising a growing proportion of the overall U.S. school population, and projections that more occupations in the future will need education beyond high school--suggest that…

  2. A structural dynamic factor model for the effects of monetary policy estimated by the EM algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse

    This paper applies the maximum likelihood based EM algorithm to a large-dimensional factor analysis of US monetary policy. Specifically, economy-wide effects of shocks to the US federal funds rate are estimated in a structural dynamic factor model in which 100+ US macroeconomic and financial time...... as opposed to the orthogonal factors resulting from the popular principal component approach to structural factor models. Correlated factors are economically more sensible and important for a richer monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, I consider both static factor loadings as well as dynamic...

  3. Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

    2017-05-01

    It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

  4. Business Model Canvas and Strategies to Develop Biodiesel Industry of PT. XYZ in Order to Implement CPO Supporting Fund Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Aman Mustika; Rina Oktaviani; Sukardi Sukardi

    2017-01-01

    Biodiesel is considered as one of the alternative eco-friendly fuels. Besides, the government also issued policy related to biodiesel that is CPO Supporting Fund (CSF) Policy. The aim of the research is to identify Business model canvas (BMC) biodiesel industry in PT XYZ and to know the strategies to develop business from biodiesel industry in line with the CPO supporting fund policy. The analysis tool used in this research is BMC, SWOT and Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM). The r...

  5. Welfare reform at 15 and the state of policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimpare, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This article offers a review of welfare reform evaluation studies, summarizing research that has generated a consensus among mainstream policy analysts that the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) has had few effects beyond caseload reductions and increases in employment. Given that supporters and opponents alike expected the law to have profound consequences, the article considers two ways to explain this surprising outcome, showing that (1) quantitative policy analysis has been ill equipped to capture the PRWORA's effects and (2) expectations were nonetheless wrong because they failed to appreciate how thoroughly Aid to Families with Dependent Children had already been eroded in the decades prior to its reform. Welfare reform was not the beginning of a process of policy change; it was the end of one. In response to these findings, the article describes how a more critical perspective on reform matters for social work researchers, advocates, and practitioners.

  6. Coronary heart disease policy models: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capewell Simon

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease (CHD is complex. A variety of models have therefore been developed to try and explain past trends and predict future possibilities. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the strengths and limitations of existing CHD policy models. Methods A search strategy was developed, piloted and run in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases, supplemented by manually searching reference lists of relevant articles and reviews. Two reviewers independently checked the papers for inclusion and appraisal. All CHD modelling studies were included which addressed a defined population and reported on one or more key outcomes (deaths prevented, life years gained, mortality, incidence, prevalence, disability or cost of treatment. Results In total, 75 articles describing 42 models were included; 12 (29% of the 42 models were micro-simulation, 8 (19% cell-based, and 8 (19% life table analyses, while 14 (33% used other modelling methods. Outcomes most commonly reported were cost-effectiveness (36%, numbers of deaths prevented (33%, life-years gained (23% or CHD incidence (23%. Among the 42 models, 29 (69% included one or more risk factors for primary prevention, while 8 (19% just considered CHD treatments. Only 5 (12% were comprehensive, considering both risk factors and treatments. The six best-developed models are summarised in this paper, all are considered in detail in the appendices. Conclusion Existing CHD policy models vary widely in their depth, breadth, quality, utility and versatility. Few models have been calibrated against observed data, replicated in different settings or adequately validated. Before being accepted as a policy aid, any CHD model should provide an explicit statement of its aims, assumptions, outputs, strengths and limitations.

  7. A Model of Climate Policy Using Board Game Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Castronova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of how a board game can be modified to generate a serious game. We argue that board games are an interesting medium for serious games, especially when the goal is to teach players about particularly complex systems. In that case, the transparency of a board game makes it possible for players to “see the whole boards” – to see all of the various moving parts at work. That transparency also makes it very easy to modify board games. To demonstrate these claims, we present a modification to the board game CO2 that accurately models different policy options with regard to global warming. We show how a few major changes to the original game’s point systems, as well as removal of certain extraneous features, can significantly improve the game, adding an instructional value. The game allows players to experiment with several policy options, including carbon taxes, carbon emissions permit sales, and clean energy research support, and lets players see how these policies interact. We discuss ways that teachers, advocates, journalists, and others can the Climate Policy mod to more easily explain the incredibly complex interactions of power markets, carbon dioxide emissions, and public policy.

  8. State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA): State Tax Incentives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Doris, E.

    2009-10-01

    As a policy tool, state tax incentives can be structured to help states meet clean energy goals. Policymakers often use state tax incentives in concert with state and federal policies to support renewable energy deployment or reduce market barriers. This analysis used case studies of four states to assess the contributions of state tax incentives to the development of renewable energy markets. State tax incentives that are appropriately paired with complementary state and federal policies generally provide viable mechanisms to support renewable energy deployment. However, challenges to successful implementation of state tax incentives include serving project owners with limited state tax liability, assessing appropriate incentive levels, and differentiating levels of incentives for technologies with different costs. Additionally, state tax incentives may result in moderately higher federal tax burdens. These challenges notwithstanding, state tax incentives that consider certain policy design characteristics can support renewable energy markets and state clean energy goals.The scale of their impact though is directly related to the degree to which they support the renewable energy markets for targeted sectors and technologies. This report highlights important policy design considerations for policymakers using state tax incentives to meet clean energy goals.

  9. Bridging Research, Practice, and Policy: The "Evidence Academy" Conference Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohweder, Catherine L; Laping, Jane L; Diehl, Sandra J; Moore, Alexis A; Isler, Malika Roman; Scott, Jennifer Elissa; Enga, Zoe Kaori; Black, Molly C; Dave, Gaurav; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Melvin, Cathy L

    2016-01-01

    Innovative models to facilitate more rapid uptake of research findings into practice are urgently needed. Community members who engage in research can accelerate this process by acting as adoption agents. We implemented an Evidence Academy conference model bringing together researchers, health care professionals, advocates, and policy makers across North Carolina to discuss high-impact, life-saving study results. The overall goal is to develop dissemination and implementation strategies for translating evidence into practice and policy. Each 1-day, single-theme, regional meeting focuses on a leading community-identified health priority. The model capitalizes on the power of diverse local networks to encourage broad, common awareness of new research findings. Furthermore, it emphasizes critical reflection and active group discussion on how to incorporate new evidence within and across organizations, health care systems, and communities. During the concluding session, participants are asked to articulate action plans relevant to their individual interests, work setting, or area of expertise.

  10. Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph W.; Haldi, P.-A.; Sarlos, G.Gerard

    2003-01-01

    The impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy-wide framework, while keeping the essential details of the energy sector. The aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures. Starting from the static concept of Boehringer (Energy Econ. 20 (1998) 233), this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom-up and top-down approach merging models. While a hybrid approach increases the credibility of CGE models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom-up activity analysis based on specific technologies, the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible. Both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change--which is typically the case in the long-term assessment of energy policy measures

  11. Establishment of a Policy Analysis Capability in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carole M.P. NEVES

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian government, like other governments of former communist countries, emerged from the collapsed Soviet Union ill prepared to confront the complex challenges of governing under a democratic, free market system. At the core of governments that formulate sound public policies, successfully implement programs, and respond effectively to rapidly changing situations is the capacity to carry out independent, high quality research and analysis that results in improved decision making. During the 21st century, the need and acceptance of the incorporation of policy analysis courses in public administration curricula in Romania is expected to grow. In time, educational programs are expected to result in the following consequences: _ Formation of a body of strong independent policy researchers employed by the national and local governments as well as by universities and non-profit institutions _ Utilization of analytical outcomes as tools of political, social and economic improvement by the executive, legislative and judicial branches and by non-profit and private sectors _ Greater public understanding of and participation in public policy processes.

  12. Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1996-10-01

    As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.

  13. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The Development of a Multisource and a Systematized Database for Economic and Policy Impact Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ec. Filippo Oropallo

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available ISTAT is involved in various EU projects with the objective of "supporting the Lisbon objectives, EU governance and the process of national policy coverage with the best EU-wide and national policy impact and evaluation analyses". Existing knowledge on policy impact analyses is approximate. The "facts" on the impact of policies are charted only at the aggregate level and with a high degree of approximation. Macro indicators have well-known pitfalls and drawbacks. Understanding how policies affect economic performance and developing better indicators to gauge their effects is central to endow the EU with a set of efficient and fair policies. The gap in European knowledge and capacity for Policy Impact Analysis is patent. The DIECOFIS EU-FP5 project has taken up the challenge of reducing this gap in the field of taxation. Results have been quite encouraging and have open new vistas for future work. Particularly notable has been the development of a system of micro-founded indicators, based on factuals and counterfactuals, estimated through micro-simulation models. This has led to the current utilization of such a tool in the ex-ante microsimulation of the effects of several reforms of corporate taxation

  15. Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods A model was built to assess policy scenarios’ impact on the pharmaceutical budgets of seven member states of the EU, namely France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. The following scenarios were tested: expanding the UK policies to EU, changing time to market access, modifying generic price and penetration, shifting the distribution chain of biosimilars (retail/hospital). Results Applying the UK policy resulted in dramatic savings for Germany (10 times the base case forecast) and substantial additional savings for France and Portugal (2 and 4 times the base case forecast, respectively). Delaying time to market was found be to a very powerful tool to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Applying the EU transparency directive (6-month process for pricing and reimbursement) increased pharmaceutical expenditure for all countries (from 1.1 to 4 times the base case forecast), except in Germany (additional savings). Decreasing the price of generics and boosting the penetration rate, as well as shifting distribution of biosimilars through hospital chain were also key methods to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure. Change in the level of reimbursement rate to 100% in all countries led to an important increase in the pharmaceutical budget. Conclusions Forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure is a critical exercise to inform policy decision makers. The most important leverages identified by the model on pharmaceutical budget were driven by generic and biosimilar prices, penetration rate

  16. Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

    2016-12-01

    The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

  17. Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Mercado-Garcia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

  18. The geography of innovation: A new model of technology and innovation policies in a decentralised country

    OpenAIRE

    José Ignacio Pradas Poveda

    2002-01-01

    A new model of technology and innovation policies in a decentralised country is offered on the basis of the geography of innovation. This consists of an analysis combining the study of the nature of innovation and its close interrelationship with the space where innovation activities take place. The structure of the proposal incorporates the cyclical model of innovation and defines a role for every agent of the national innovation system (NIS) depending on specialisation, contribution and pot...

  19. Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staunæs, Dorthe; Brøgger, Katja; Steiner-Khamsi, Gita

    Studying Policy Transfer through the Lens of Social Network Analysis The panelists present the findings of a joint empirical research project carried out at Aarhus University (DPU/Copenhagen) and at Teachers College, Columbia University (New York). The research project succeeded to identify...... discursive networks of political stakeholders and policy advisors that were considered key actors in the Danish school reform. The research team investigated how these networks interrelate, change over time, and represent different constituents (government, academe, business), at times contradicting...... or collaborating with each other, respectively. Against the backdrop of globalization studies in comparative education, the research project attempted to identify borrowers, translators, and brokers of educational reform drawing on a complementary set of expertise from social network analysis methodology (Oren...

  20. Reduction in male suicide mortality following the 2006 Russian alcohol policy: an interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pridemore, William Alex; Chamlin, Mitchell B; Andreev, Evgeny

    2013-11-01

    We took advantage of a natural experiment to assess the impact on suicide mortality of a suite of Russian alcohol policies. We obtained suicide counts from anonymous death records collected by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series techniques to model the effect of the alcohol policy (implemented in January 2006) on monthly male and female suicide counts between January 2000 and December 2010. Monthly male and female suicide counts decreased during the period under study. Although the ARIMA analysis showed no impact of the policy on female suicide mortality, the results revealed an immediate and permanent reduction of about 9% in male suicides (Ln ω0 = -0.096; P = .01). Despite a recent decrease in mortality, rates of alcohol consumption and suicide in Russia remain among the highest in the world. Our analysis revealed that the 2006 alcohol policy in Russia led to a 9% reduction in male suicide mortality, meaning the policy was responsible for saving 4000 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to suicide. Together with recent similar findings elsewhere, our results suggest an important role for public health and other population level interventions, including alcohol policy, in reducing alcohol-related harm.

  1. A comparative analysis of policies addressing rural oral health in eight English-speaking OECD countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocombe, Leonard A; Goldberg, Lynette R; Bell, Erica; Seidel, Bastian

    2017-01-01

    documents in this study. When the language of concepts related to rural oral health was examined, the qualitative analysis identified four discourse themes related to both causality and solutions. These ranked discourse themes focused on service models, workforce issues, social determinants of health, and prevention. None of the policies addressed the structural economic determinants of unequal rural oral health, nor did they specifically assert the rights of children in rural communities to equitable oral health care. This study documented the limited focus on rural oral health that existed in national oral health policies from eight different English-speaking countries. It supports the need for an increased focus on rural oral health issues in oral health policies, particularly as increased oral health is clearly associated with increased general health. It speaks to the critical importance of periodic analysis of the content of oral health policies to ensure that issues of inequality are addressed. Further, it reinforces the need for research findings about effective oral health care to be translated into practice in the development of practical and financially viable policies to make access to oral health care more equitable, particularly for people living in rural and remote areas.

  2. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  3. Essays on environmental policy analysis: Computable general equilibrium approaches applied to Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, M.

    2001-01-01

    This thesis consists of three essays within the field of applied environmental economics, with the common basic aim of analyzing effects of Swedish environmental policy. Starting out from Swedish environmental goals, the thesis assesses a range of policy-related questions. The objective is to quantify policy outcomes by constructing and applying numerical models especially designed for environmental policy analysis. Static and dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium models are developed in order to analyze the following issues. The costs and benefits of a domestic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) tax reform. Special attention is given to how these costs and benefits depend on the structure of the tax system and, furthermore, how they depend on policy-induced changes in 'secondary' pollutants. The effects of allowing for emission permit trading through time when the domestic long-term domestic environmental goal is specified in CO 2 stock terms. The effects on long-term projected economic growth and welfare that are due to damages from emission flow and accumulation of 'local' pollutants (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), as well as the outcome of environmental policy when costs and benefits are considered in an integrated environmental-economic framework

  4. Orientation of the Fiscal Policy in Tunisia: Structural VAR Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wissem Khanfir

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to indicate the orientation of fiscal policy in Tunisia, using the structural budget balance, during the period 1972-2014. For this purpose, we estimate a structural VAR model consisting of the fiscal deficit to current GDP ratio and the volume of economic activity represented by the real GDP. We estimate bivariate structural VAR in order to decompose fiscal deficit fluctuations into different disturbances.

  5. Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

    2005-01-01

    Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

  6. Energy efficiency policies for space heating in EU countries: A panel data analysis for the period 1990–2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ó Broin, Eoin; Nässén, Jonas; Johnsson, Filip

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Space heating demand between 1990 and 2010 modelled using a panel of 14 EU countries. • The impacts of 260 efficiency polices affecting space heating demand are examined. • Regulatory policies found to have had a greater success than financial or informative. • High priority should be given to regulatory policies for space heating energy goals. - Abstract: We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m 2 /year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy

  7. Policy Adoption of Forest Management Unit: A Knowledge Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julijanti Julijanti

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Within the policy adoption process of Forest Management Unit (FMU concept, there has been disagreement of stakeholders on FMUs concept. This disagreement is caused by the exchange of knowledge, information, and perception among stakeholders involved. The results of these interactions could speed up, slow down, and prevent the adoption process of FMU policy. The study objective was analyzing process of knowledge diffusion of FMUs development policy and stakeholders interaction in PFMU Batutegi and PFMU Kotaagung Utara, Indonesia. Adoption process was analyzed by the logical diffusion technique based on knowledge time of FMUs concept received and its interaction space. Social interaction among stakeholders was analyzed using method developed by International Development Studies analysis, i.e. interaction among discourse/narrative, actors/networks and politics/interests. The results showed that knowledge diffusion of FMUs concept in both PFMU tends to cascade diffusion. Factors was affecting of it process were network, role of opinion leaders, willingness to know, and understand on FMUs concept. Indicative strategy is needed as anticipating and overcoming an obstacle in its internalization process, i.e. harmonization of legislative and executive relationship, building an opinion the importance of FMU, and optimalizing network for bureaucratic problems. Keywords: Forest Management Unit, knowledge diffusion, network, policy adoption

  8. Policies for Reintegrating Crop and Livestock Systems: A Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael D. Garrett

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The reintegration of crop and livestock systems within the same land area has the potential to improve soil quality and reduce water and air pollution, while maintaining high yields and reducing risk. In this study, we characterize the degree to which federal policies in three major global food production regions that span a range of socioeconomic contexts, Brazil, New Zealand, and the United States, incentivize or disincentivize the use of integrated crop and livestock practices (ICLS. Our analysis indicates that Brazil and New Zealand have the most favorable policy environment for ICLS, while the United States provides the least favorable environment. The balance of policy incentives and disincentives across our three cases studies mirrors current patterns of ICLS usage. Brazil and New Zealand have both undergone a trend toward mixed crop livestock systems in recent years, while the United States has transitioned rapidly toward continuous crop and livestock production. If transitions to ICLS are desired, particularly in the United States, it will be necessary to change agricultural, trade, environmental, biofuels, and food safety policies that currently buffer farmers from risk, provide too few incentives for pollution reduction, and restrict the presence of animals in crop areas. It will also be necessary to invest more in research and development in all countries to identify the most profitable ICLS technologies in each region.

  9. Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.

    2008-11-01

    This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

  10. Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

  11. Transportation network policy modeling for congestion and pollution control: A variational inequality approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanujam, Padma

    1999-08-01

    Public concern over the state of the environment has grown over the past decade. All indications are that this concern will continue to influence policy making into the foreseeable future. Road transport is seen as the major contributor to environmental degradation. Transportation planners around the world face the question: cleaner air and/or faster commutes? While individual vehicles can be made more environmentally friendly, the sheer scale of growth in world-wide vehicle numbers is projected to cause significant environmental degradation in the longer run, and in the absence of newer and stricter polices. It is a challenge for governments to find policies that ensure congestion-free metropolitan areas while guaranteeing both critical environmental quality levels and a sufficient infrastructure access to all groups involved. The objective of the dissertation is to provide a mathematical framework to study transportation policy models for the purpose of controlling congestion and pollution. Towards this objective. a series of transportation policy models are developed to study travel behavior and to quantity the reductions in congestion and automobile emissions. The dissertation begins with a brief historical overview of some of the pioneering works in urban transportation economics and later presents the theoretical foundation for the transportation policy models developed. The dissertation introduces single modal and multimodal transportation network policy models that accomplish road pricing with the imposition of goal targets on link loads. as well as, integrated traffic equilibrium models with marketable mobile emission permits. Furthermore, equilibrium conditions are derived for each model, and both qualitative analysis and computational procedures are studied. Finally, the dissertation concludes with a comparative study of the relationship between regulatory pricing models and marketable emission permit transportation models and a discussion on key factors

  12. Empowerment model for nurse leaders' participation in health policy development: an east African perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariff, Nilufa Jivraj

    2015-01-01

    Nurses comprise the largest portion of the health care workforce in most countries; they interact closely with patients and communities, they work throughout the day and within all sectors of health care. Their breath of practice gives them a broad understanding of requirements of the health care system, of how factors in the environment affect the health outcomes of clients and communities. Nurses' involvement in health policy development ensures that health services are: safe, effective, available and inexpensive. A Delphi survey was utilized and included the following criteria: expert panelists, three iterative rounds, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and building consensus. The overall aim of the study was to develop "An Empowerment Model for Nurse Leaders' participation in Health Policy Development". The study included purposively selected sample of national nurse leaders from the three East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The study was conducted in three iterative rounds. Data collection tools were questionnaires. Data analysis was done by examining the data for the most commonly occurring concepts in the first round and descriptive statistics in the second and third rounds. The findings of the study support the development of the "Empowerment Model for Nurse Leaders' Participation in Health Policy Development". Further the study identified that there was a significant gap in and barriers to participation in health policy activity and that an opportunity seems to exist to enable and develop nurse leaders' role and involvement in this respect. There was consensus on factors considered to be facilitators and barriers to nurse leaders' involvement in health policy development. Furthermore, consensus was achieved on essential leadership attributes that enhance nurse leaders' participation in health policy development. The model was validated a small sample of the nurse leaders' who participated in the study. The model provides a framework

  13. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  14. Multi-criteria analysis of innovation policies in favour of solar mobility in France by 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popiolek, Nathalie; Thais, Françoise

    2016-01-01

    As part of France's political intentions to reduce CO 2 emissions in building and transport, this work offers an analysis from the perspective of a public authority on the various innovation policies for the deployment of electric vehicles powered by solar photovoltaic electricity (PV) by the year 2030. This innovation involves enhancing the synergy between buildings and mobility by associating positive energy houses with electric vehicles. The vehicle battery, charged primarily using PV electricity, could also provide a way of storing intermittent solar-generated electricity for later use. The aim of this article is to implement a decision-making model for public administration which can select the best innovation policies based on a number of criteria reflecting their major goals in terms of policies relating to energy, economics, social cohesion and “factor 4″ (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared with 1990 levels). The methodology developed herein has been applied to a concrete case, with some resulting recommendations which may be of use for the public authorities: simultaneously combine research in favour of solar mobility technologies and apply a relatively high carbon tax. Such recommendations are mitigated by the choice of the data set and the methodological shortcomings. - Highlights: • Public Policies are examined in order to deploy solar mobility in France by 2030. • A multi-criteria decision making model is implemented to select the best policies. • For each policy, 8 criteria are evaluated compared to the business as usual policy. • Assumptions about decision-making environment are combined to define future scenarios. • The best policies are the R&D support on technologies with a high carbon tax.

  15. A Potentially Heteroglossic Policy Becomes Monoglossic in Context: An Ethnographic Analysis of Paraguayan Bilingual Education Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortimer, Katherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Ethnographic and discursive approaches to educational language policy (ELP) that explore how policy is appropriated in context are important for understanding policy success/failure in meeting goals of educational equity for language-minoritized students. This study describes how Paraguayan national policy for universal bilingual education…

  16. Modeling expectations in agent-based models: an application to central bank's communication and monetary policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salle, I.L.

    2015-01-01

    Expectations play a major role in macroeconomic dynamics, especially regarding the conduct of monetary policy. Yet, modeling the interplay between communication, expectations and aggregate outcomes remains a challenging task, mainly because this requires deviation from the paradigm of rational

  17. Development of oral health policy in Nigeria: an analysis of the role of context, actors and policy process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etiaba, Enyi; Uguru, Nkoli; Ebenso, Bassey; Russo, Giuliano; Ezumah, Nkoli; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Onwujekwe, Obinna

    2015-05-06

    In Nigeria, there is a high burden of oral health diseases, poor coordination of health services and human resources for delivery of oral health services. Previous attempts to develop an Oral Health Policy (OHP) to decrease the oral disease burden failed. However, a policy was eventually developed in November 2012. This paper explores the role of contextual factors, actors and the policy process in the development of the OHP and possible reasons why the current approved OHP succeeded. The study was undertaken across Nigeria; information gathered through document reviews and in-depth interviews with five groups of purposively selected respondents. Analysis of the policy development process was guided by the policy triangle framework, examining context, policy process and actors involved in the policy development. The foremost enabling factor was the yearning among policy actors for a policy, having had four failed attempts. Other factors were the presence of a democratically elected government, a framework for health sector reform instituted by the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH). The approved OHP went through all stages required for policy development unlike the previous attempts. Three groups of actors played crucial roles in the process, namely academics/researchers, development partners and policy makers. They either had decision making powers or influenced policy through funding or technical ability to generate credible research evidence, all sharing a common interest in developing the OHP. Although evidence was used to inform the development of the policy, the complex interactions between the context and actors facilitated its approval. The OHP development succeeded through a complex inter-relationship of context, process and actors, clearly illustrating that none of these factors could have, in isolation, catalyzed the policy development. Availability of evidence is necessary but not sufficient for developing policies in this area. Wider socio

  18. Social Cost Benefit Analysis for Environmental Policy-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Zeeuw, A.; In t Veld, R.; Van Soest, D.; Meuleman, L.; Hoogewoning, P.

    2008-01-01

    Review of the theoretical literature and the current debate on the valuation of environmental goods and services, on the discounting of future benefits and costs, and on how social cost benefit analysis (SCBAs) can be integrated in the policy and decision making process. It is concluded that SCBA can be a good decision support method in environmental policy-making if it is transparent and if all impacts are taken into account. Furthermore, the SCBA process should be participative, and politicians must be prepared to take responsibility for the assumptions behind the SCBA, including the assumptions on valuation and on the discount rate. Such a political role makes each SCBA a unique product of a politically responsible actor, and makes it possible for other stakeholders to have calculated an alternative SCBA based on their own assumptions. This Background Study also contains the proceedings of the international SCBA conference organised by RMNO on 16-17 January 2008

  19. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  20. A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermeling, Claudia; Löschel, Andreas; Mennel, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on Gauss Quadrature and applies it to check the robustness of a large-scale climate policy evaluation. The revised version of the Gauss-quadrature approach to sensitivity analysis reduces computations considerably vis-à-vis the commonly applied Monte-Carlo methods; this allows for a stochastic sensitivity analysis also for large scale models and multi-dimensional changes of parameters. In the application, an impact assessment of EU2020 climate policy, we focus on sectoral elasticities that are part of the basic parameters of the model and have been recently determined by econometric estimation, alongside with standard errors. The impact assessment is based on the large scale CGE model PACE. We show the applicability of the Gauss-quadrature approach and confirm the robustness of the impact assessment with the PACE model. The variance of the central model outcomes is smaller than their mean by order four to eight, depending on the aggregation level (i.e. aggregate variables such as GDP show a smaller variance than sectoral output). - Highlights: ► New, simplified method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for CGE analysis. ► Gauss quadrature with orthogonal polynomials. ► Application to climate policy—the case of the EU 2020 targets

  1. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Hajime; Frantz, Janet E

    2005-01-01

    Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD) was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies. PMID:15771781

  2. Termination of the leprosy isolation policy in the US and Japan : Science, policy changes, and the garbage can model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantz Janet E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In both the US and Japan, the patient isolation policy for leprosy /Hansen's disease (HD was preserved along with the isolation facilities, long after it had been proven to be scientifically unnecessary. This delayed policy termination caused a deprivation of civil liberties of the involuntarily confined patients, the fostering of social stigmas attached to the disease, and an inefficient use of health resources. This article seeks to elucidate the political process which hindered timely policy changes congruent with scientific advances. Methods Examination of historical materials, supplemented by personal interviews. The role that science played in the process of policy making was scrutinized with particular reference to the Garbage Can model. Results From the vantage of history, science remained instrumental in all period in the sense that it was not the primary objective for which policy change was discussed or intended, nor was it the principal driving force for policy change. When the argument arose, scientific arguments were employed to justify the patient isolation policy. However, in the early post-WWII period, issues were foregrounded and agendas were set as the inadvertent result of administrative reforms. Subsequently, scientific developments were more or less ignored due to concern about adverse policy outcomes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s, scientific arguments were used instrumentally to argue against isolation and for the termination of residential care. Conclusion Contrary to public expectations, health policy is not always rational and scientifically justified. In the process of policy making, the role of science can be limited and instrumental. Policy change may require the opening of policy windows, as a result of convergence of the problem, policy, and political streams, by effective exercise of leadership. Scientists and policymakers should be attentive enough to the political context of policies.

  3. Tobacco Policies in Louisiana: Recommendations for Future Tobacco Control Investment from SimSmoke, a Policy Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David; Fergus, Cristin; Rudov, Lindsey; McCormick-Ricket, Iben; Carton, Thomas

    2016-02-01

    Despite the presence of tobacco control policies, Louisiana continues to experience a high smoking burden and elevated smoking-attributable deaths. The SimSmoke model provides projections of these health outcomes in the face of existing and expanded (simulated) tobacco control polices. The SimSmoke model utilizes population data, smoking rates, and various tobacco control policy measures from Louisiana to predict smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The model begins in 1993 and estimates are projected through 2054. The model is validated against existing Louisiana smoking prevalence data. The most powerful individual policy measure for reducing smoking prevalence is cigarette excise tax. However, a comprehensive cessation treatment policy is predicted to save the most lives. A combination of tobacco control policies provides the greatest reduction in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The existing Louisiana excise tax ranks as one of the lowest in the country and the legislature is against further increases. Alternative policy measures aimed at lowering prevalence and attributable deaths are: cessation treatments, comprehensive smoke-free policies, and limiting youth access. These three policies have a substantial effect on smoking prevalence and attributable deaths and are likely to encounter more favor in the Louisiana legislature than increasing the state excise tax.

  4. Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krutilla, Kerry

    2005-01-01

    This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

  5. Social Analysis in Development Interventions: Policy Artefact or Constructive Transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSANNA PRICE

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Recently attention has focused on the role of social researchers in the processes of construction and transmission of knowledge about global poverty and its reduction. This paper examines some of the formative efforts by pioneering social researchers in development institutions to step into the realm of policy making to construct processes for project preparation and management through social analysis. Before 1970 development planners invoked ‘social' or ‘human' factors only as an excuse to explain away project failures - they designed and implemented development projects in the absence of any strategies or regulatory frameworks for managing their social impacts. Recognizing that project investments represent induced change and constitute a social process in themselves, pioneering social researchers constructed policies and procedures to introduce sociological content and method into the project cycle and so re-order social outcomes. Were such constructs merely policy artefacts? Even as the constructs helped to shift the statements of the development discourse towards ‘people oriented' poverty reduction, new modalities appeared which tested the limits of the agreed methods. Institutions may forget, neglect, contest or re-write the documents if in perceived conflict with the institutional ‘core business'. Yet those pioneering efforts created institutional space for, and understanding of, social analysis, with a measure of flow-on international recognition. Tracking social analysis in several international institutions and in a significant emerging economy, China, this paper highlights not only a history full of lessons to be learned where social analysis is not practiced systematically but also outlines some future challenges.

  6. Mapping Areas for Policy Evaluation: an Analysis of Rural Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MONASTEROLO

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides an analysis of the effect of the EU membership on the agricultural and rural counties of Hungary, paying particular attention to the introduction of the CAP and Cohesion Policy. Moving from the mixed case study approach introduced for the evaluation of Rural Development policies, Hungarian rural areas are mapped using multivariate statistical methodologies (principal components analysis and cluster analysis on a set of relevant variables periodically updated and available at a disaggregated level. Comparing the Hungarian rural counties in 2003 and 2007, a divergence between the expected objectives of the EU membership and the actual outcome emerges, with rural areas by far the worse off. Marginalization increased in lagging behind counties, such as Nógrád, confirming the presence of winning and losing regions as a result of the enlargement. Moreover, this study highlights the limits imposed by lacking national statistical sources on the quality of statistical analysis, and on the possibilities to undertake further evaluations of the EU accession experiences.

  7. Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koesler, Simon Tobias

    2014-01-01

    This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

  8. Modeling and Recognizing Policy Conflicts with Resource Access Requests on Protected Health Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raik Kuhlisch

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses potential clashes between different types of security policies that regulate resource access requests on clinical patient data in hospitals by employees. Attribute-based Access Control (ABAC is proposed as a proper means for such regulation. A proper representation of ABAC policies must include a handling of policy attributes among different policy types. In this article, we propose a semantic policy model with predefined policy conflict categories. A conformance verification function detects erroneous, clashing or mutually susceptible rules early during the policy planning phase. The model and conflicts are used in a conceptual application environment and evaluated in a technical experiment during an interoperability test event.

  9. An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Janette K.

    2016-01-01

    This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

  10. Planning, climate change, and transportation : thoughts on policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    Ideally, policy should be informed by social welfare analyses that carefully assess costs and benefits. In the context of : GHG policies, such analyses face particular challenges. The decades-long span of GHG policy-making will require introduction :...

  11. Cost benefit analysis of policy measures in the transport sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buus Kristensen, N. [COWI (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    The Government has introduced a national target for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions from the transport sector, which aims to stabilize emissions at the 1988 level, by the year 2005. This target was first formalized in the Government`s 1990 transport action plan, and later repeated in `Traffic 2005`, published in December 1993. The latter document also makes reference to six strategies, which the Government proposed in order to attain the national target. The majority of the transport policy measures will impact on CO{sub 2} emissions from the sector, even if they are targeted at different objectives, e.g. road safety, air pollution, time savings, etc. A long-list of potential measures, which might be adopted with the primary purpose is to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions, has been identified from the six overall strategies. The measures identified have been subjected to detailed analyses, to ascertain all the potential impacts. The main emphasis has been on clarifying the potential efficacy of each of the measures in reducing CO{sub 2} emissions, and the social costs in a wide sense. The analysis assumes that each policy measure is implemented separately. A methodology is developed that presents the respective consequences in commensurate terms. Similar calculations are undertaken for two different combinations of policy measures. (EG)

  12. Policy Adoption of Forest Management Unit: A Knowledge Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julijanti

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Within the policy adoption process of Forest Management Unit (FMU concept, there has been disagreement of stakeholders on FMUs concept. This disagreement is caused by the exchange of knowledge, information, and perception among stakeholders involved. The results of these interactions could speed up, slow down, and prevent the adoption process of FMU policy. The study objective was analyzing process of knowledge diffusion of FMUs development policy and stakeholders interaction in PFMU Batutegi and PFMU Kotaagung Utara, Indonesia. Adoption process was analyzed by the logical diffusion technique based on knowledge time of FMUs concept received and its interaction space. Social interaction among stakeholders was analyzed using method developed by International Development Studies analysis, i.e. interaction among discourse/narrative, actors/networks and politics/interests. The results showed that knowledge diffusion of FMUs concept in both PFMU tends to cascade diffusion. Factors was affecting of it process were network, role of opinion leaders, willingness to know, and understand on FMUs concept. Indicative strategy is needed as anticipating and overcoming an obstacle in its internalization process, i.e. harmonization of legislative and executive relationship, building an opinion the importance of FMU, and optimalizing network for bureaucratic problems.

  13. Resolution about the second strategic analysis on energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The French National Assembly has adopted a resolution concerning the European Commission's second strategic analysis on energy policy. The resolution makes acknowledgment of the strategic orientations proposed by the European Commission; however the necessity is emphasized to take into consideration the january 2009 gas crisis experience and therefore to ensure a better diversification of the gas supply to Western Europe. It also considers that a higher impulse (indeed with constraint) is to be given to renewable energy development in order to be able to meet the 2020 target of a 20 percent increase in energy efficiency in the EU

  14. Promotion of physical activity in the European region: content analysis of 27 national policy documents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugbjerg, Signe B; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Racioppi, Francesca

    2009-01-01

    search methods, 49 national policy documents on physical activity promotion were identified. An analysis grid covering key features was developed for the analysis of the 27 documents published in English. RESULTS: Analysis showed that many general recommendations for policy developments are being...... a noticeable development of national policy documents on physical activity promotion. Following principles for policy development more closely could increase the effectiveness of their preparation and implementation further....

  15. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingquan

    2006-01-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  16. Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Xingquan [GREGOR, University Paris I, Pantheon-Sorbonne, Paris (France)]. E-mail: wangxingquan@gmail.com

    2006-07-01

    The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

  17. A techno-economic analysis of EU renewable electricity policy pathways in 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Río, Pablo del; Resch, Gustav; Ortner, Andre; Liebmann, Lukas; Busch, Sebastian; Panzer, Christian

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to assess several pathways of a harmonised European policy framework for supporting renewable electricity (RES-E) in a 2030 horizon according to different criteria. The pathways combine two main dimensions: degrees of harmonisation and instruments and design elements. A quantitative model-based analysis with the Green-X model is provided. The results of the simulations show that there are small differences between the evaluated cases regarding effectiveness. All the policy pathways score similarly with respect to RES-E deployment, i.e., with different degrees of harmonisation and whether using a feed-in tariff, a feed-in premium, a quota system with banding or a quota without banding scheme. In contrast, the policy costs clearly differ across the pathways, but the differences can mostly be attributed to the instruments rather than to the degrees of harmonisation. This is also the case with other criteria (static and dynamic efficiency and the socioeconomic and environmental benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and fossil fuels avoided). Both the degree of harmonisation and the choice of instrument influence the distribution of support costs across countries. Finally, our findings suggest that keeping strengthened national support leads to similar results to other policy pathways. - Highlights: • Pathways of a harmonised European policy framework for renewable electricity in 2030. • Two main dimensions: degrees of harmonisation and instruments. • A quantitative model-based analysis based on the Green-X model. • Small differences between the pathways regarding the effectiveness criterion. • Important differences between pathways regarding other assessment criteria.

  18. Sustaining the Drone Enterprise: How Manpower Analysis Engendered Policy Reform in the United States Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-17

    Sustaining the Drone Enterprise How Manpower Analysis Engendered Policy Reform in the United States Air Force Major Kiel M. Martin, Ph.D...CT 06510 Abstract The Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA), colloquially labeled the “ drone ,” has become iconic of American military campaigns this...problem, the metrics that we used to evaluate the manpower system, and the modeling techniques we employed to inform a comprehensive solution to

  19. Monetary Policy and Real Estate Prices: A Disaggregated Analysis for Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Berlemann, Michael; Freese, Julia

    2010-01-01

    Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Em-ploying a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find substitution effects between house and apartment prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Interestingly enough, commercial prope...

  20. An Empirical Analysis of Stakeholders' Influence on Policy Development: the Role of Uncertainty Handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rianne M. Bijlsma

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholder participation is advocated widely, but there is little structured, empirical research into its influence on policy development. We aim to further the insight into the characteristics of participatory policy development by comparing it to expert-based policy development for the same case. We describe the process of problem framing and analysis, as well as the knowledge base used. We apply an uncertainty perspective to reveal differences between the approaches and speculate about possible explanations. We view policy development as a continuous handling of substantive uncertainty and process uncertainty, and investigate how the methods of handling uncertainty of actors influence the policy development. Our findings suggest that the wider frame that was adopted in the participatory approach was the result of a more active handling of process uncertainty. The stakeholders handled institutional uncertainty by broadening the problem frame, and they handled strategic uncertainty by negotiating commitment and by including all important stakeholder criteria in the frame. In the expert-based approach, we observed a more passive handling of uncertainty, apparently to avoid complexity. The experts handled institutional uncertainty by reducing the scope and by anticipating windows of opportunity in other policy arenas. Strategic uncertainty was handled by assuming stakeholders' acceptance of noncontroversial measures that balanced benefits and sacrifices. Three other observations are of interest to the scientific debate on participatory policy processes. Firstly, the participatory policy was less adaptive than the expert-based policy. The observed low tolerance for process uncertainty of participants made them opt for a rigorous "once and for all" settling of the conflict. Secondly, in the participatory approach, actors preferred procedures of traceable knowledge acquisition over controversial topics to handle substantive uncertainty. This

  1. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  2. Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1991-01-01

    There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

  3. Assessing policies towards sustainable transport in Europe: an integrated model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros

    2005-01-01

    A transport simulation and forecast model is presented, which is designed for the assessment of policy options aiming to achieve sustainability in transportation. Starting from a simulation of the economic behaviour of consumers and producers within a microeconomic optimisation framework and the resulting calculation of the modal split, the allocation of the vehicle stock into vintages and technological groups is modelled. In a third step, a technology-oriented algorithm, which incorporates the relevant state-of-the-art knowledge in Europe, calculates emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases as well as appropriate indicators for traffic congestion, noise and road accidents. The paper outlines the methodology and the basic data sources used in connection with work done so far in Europe, presents the outlook according to a 'reference case' run for the 15 current European Union Member States up to 2030, displays aggregate results from a number of alternative scenarios and outlines elements of future work

  4. Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

    2003-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

  5. Integrated environmental policy: A review of economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiesmeth, Hans; Häckl, Dennis

    2017-04-01

    Holistic environmental policies, which emerged from a mere combination of technical activities in waste management some 40 years ago, constitute the most advanced level of environmental policies. These approaches to environmental policy, among them the policies in integrated waste management, attempt to guide economic agents to an environment-friendly behaviour. Nevertheless, current holistic policies in waste management, including policies on one-way drinks containers and waste electrical and electronic equipment, and implementations of extended producer responsibility with further applications to waste electrical and electronic equipment, reveal more or less severe deficiencies - despite some positive examples. This article relates these policy failures, which are not necessarily the result of an insufficient compliance with the regulations, to missing constitutive elements of what is going to be called an 'integrated environmental policy'. This article therefore investigates - mostly from a practical point of view - constitutive elements, which are necessary for a holistic policy to serve as a well-functioning allocation mechanism. As these constitutive elements result from a careful 'integration' of the environmental commodities into the economic allocation problems, we refer to these policies as 'integrated environmental policies'. The article also discusses and illustrates the main steps of designing such a policy - for waste electrical and electronic equipment and a (possible) ban of Glyphosat in agriculture. As these policies are dependent on economic and political stability with environmental awareness sufficiently developed, the article addresses mostly waste management policies in highly industrialised countries.

  6. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  7. Review of maritime transportation air emission pollution and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haifeng; Liu, Dahai; Dai, Guilin

    2009-09-01

    The study of air emission in maritime transportation is new, and the recognition of its importance has been rising in the recent decade. The emissions of CO2, SO2, NO2 and particulate matters from maritime transportation have contributed to climate change and environmental degradation. Scientifically, analysts still have controversies regarding how to calculate the emissions and how to choose the baseline and methodologies. Three methods are generally used, namely the ‘bottom up’ approach, the ‘top down’ approach and the STEEM, which produce very different results, leading to various papers with great uncertainties. This, in turn, results in great difficulties to policy makers who attempt to regulate the emissions. A recent technique, the STEEM, is intended to combine the former two methods to reduce their drawbacks. However, the regulations based on its results may increase the costs of shipping companies and cause the competitiveness of the port states and coastal states. Quite a few papers have focused on this area and provided another fresh perspective for the air emission to be incorporated in maritime transportation regulations; these facts deserve more attention. This paper is to review the literature on the debates over air emission calculation, with particular attention given to the STEEM and the refined estimation methods. It also reviews related literature on the economic analysis of maritime transportation emission regulations, and provides an insight into such analysis. At the end of this paper, based on a review and analysis of previous literature, we conclude with the policy indications in the future and work that should be done. As the related regulations in maritime transportation emissions are still at their beginning stage in China, this paper provides specific suggestions on how China should regulate emissions in the maritime transportation sector.

  8. International Commercial Remote Sensing Practices and Policies: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryker, Timothy

    sensing satellite industry. In commissioning this study, NOAA's goal was to better understand the role that U.S. Government policies and regulations have in shaping the prospects for emerging commercial remote sensing satellite firms. The study assessed the risks against broader trends in the larger U.S. remote sensing industry and geospatial technology and effective policy implementation. The Department of Commerce is working with NOAA licensees to identify foreign actions which could restrict market access by U.S. firms, and seeking to provide a "level playing field" for U.S. service providers. The Department of Commerce has dedicated new resources to its licensing activities. In Fiscal Year 2002, the Department obtained 1.2 million in funding to support the NOAA program, through staff, equipment, technical support, constituent outreach, and market and policy studies. To better understand the market and make more well-informed licensing decisions, NOAA is participating in a broad-based market study effort under the direction of the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program. This study is providing long-term analysis of the commercial remote sensing industry. It is being supported by interviews with industry and government experts, a web-based survey, and a thorough review and analysis of related literature. The project should more clearly determine future remote sensing needs and requirements, and maximize the industry's baselines, standards, and socio-economic potential. NOAA, through its participation in this study, has gained important new insights into the status and future trends of this industry. The study's initial findings estimate 2001 industry revenue at 2 billion, growing at 13% per year, to an approximate level of 6 billion in 2010 (in constant, calendar year 2000 dollars). Currently, across all sectors, the most active market segments are in nati onal /glo bal security, mapping

  9. Application of system dynamics on nuclear policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, N. S.; Kim, J. C.; Kim, D. W.; Kang, S. C.

    2000-01-01

    A system dynamics model for a nuclear energy policy in Korea (SIMNEP) was developed to analyze the Korea nuclear system and to predict the influence of the nuclear energy policy in the future. Two cases were analyzed using SIMNEP. The first case is to see the effect of the occurrence of severe nuclear accident in foreign country on the Korean government support. In the beginning, the Korean government support drops but jump up to the higher value than normal support due to the intelligentsia support influenced by the delay time of perception. Then, the national government support converges to the normal support. This turns out that the intelligentsia support plays a major role in increasing the government support. The second case is to see the effect of prior efforts on the foreign factors and/or on domestic factors on the U.S. government support. In the short term, effort on the U.S. government is more effective to increase U.S. government support but in the long term (about after 5 years), efforts on the domestic factors influence on the U.S. government support more than efforts on the foreign factors. The Korean government counter reaction among the influencing factors on the U.S. government support plays a major role to explain this result

  10. Developing recommendations to improve the quality of diabetes care in Ireland: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mc Hugh, Sheena M; Perry, Ivan J; Bradley, Colin; Brugha, Ruairí

    2014-09-18

    In 2006, the Health Service Executive (HSE) in Ireland established an Expert Advisory Group (EAG) for Diabetes, to act as its main source of operational policy and strategic advice for this chronic condition. The process was heralded as the starting point for the development of formal chronic disease management programmes. Although recommendations were published in 2008, implementation did not proceed as expected. Our aim was to examine the development of recommendations by the EAG as an instrumental case study of the policy formulation process, in the context of a health system undergoing organisational and financial upheaval. This study uses Kingdon's Multiple Streams Theory to examine the evolution of the EAG recommendations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 15 stakeholders from the advisory group. Interview data were supplemented with documentary analysis of published and unpublished documents. Thematic analysis was guided by the propositions of the Kingdon model. In the problem stream, the prioritisation of diabetes within the policy arena was a gradual process resulting from an accumulation of evidence, international comparison, and experience. The policy stream was bolstered by group consensus rather than complete agreement on the best way to manage the condition. The EAG assumed the politics stream was also on course to converge with the other streams, as the group was established by the HSE, which had the remit for policy implementation. However, the politics stream did not converge due to waning support from health service management and changes to the organisational structure and financial capacity of the health system. These changes trumped the EAG process and the policy window remained closed, stalling implementation. Our results reflect the dynamic nature of the policy process and the importance of timing. The results highlight the limits of rational policy making in the face of organisational and fiscal upheaval

  11. A study on the nuclear foreign policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Keun Bae; Choi, Y. M.; Lee, D. J.; Lee, K. S.; Lee, B. W.; Cho, I. H.; Ko, H. S.

    1996-12-01

    This study aims to analyses recent trends of international situation relating to nuclear non-proliferation and the adverse conditions in Korea's pursuing self-support of such technology, so that it may map out effective strategies for the promotion of nuclear energy. This study analyses developments of international nuclear non-proliferation regime, which plays a main role in preventing the international proliferation of nuclear weapons. This study includes NPT, IAEA safeguards system, international export control regimes, CTBT, and NWFZs as the subjects of analysis. Second theme is international organizations concerning nuclear activities. This study mainly analyses IAEA activities which pursues the promotion of peaceful use of nuclear energy and nuclear non-proliferation simultaneously as a pivotal body of international nuclear cooperation. Third focus of this study is Northeast Asian circumstances pertaining to nuclear non-proliferation. The study looks into the DPRK nuclear issues, and reviews the developments of the proposed regional body for nuclear cooperation and the discussion on the Northeast Asian NWFZ. Fourth, but the most influential to Korean nuclear activities, is the U. S. nuclear policy, since U. S. takes the overwhelming initiative in the field of international nuclear non-proliferation. Therefore, this study gives much weight in analyzing the structure, procedures, recent trend, and pending issues of U. S. nuclear policy. (author). 78 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

    2006-01-01

    Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

  13. A two-step approach for the analysis of hybrids in comparative social policy analysis: a nuanced typology of childcare between policies and regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccia, Rossella

    2017-01-01

    Typologies have represented an important tool for the development of comparative social policy research and continue to be widely used in spite of growing criticism of their ability to capture the complexity of welfare states and their internal heterogeneity. In particular, debates have focused on the presence of hybrid cases and the existence of distinct cross-national pattern of variation across areas of social policy. There is growing awareness around these issues, but empirical research often still relies on methodologies aimed at classifying countries in a limited number of unambiguous types. This article proposes a two-step approach based on fuzzy-set ideal type analysis for the systematic analysis of hybrids at the level of both policies (step 1) and policy configurations or combinations of policies (step 2). This approach is demonstrated by using the case of childcare policies in European economies. In the first step, parental leave policies are analysed using three methods-direct, indirect, and combinatory-to identify and describe specific hybrid forms at the level of policy analysis. In the second step, the analysis moves on to investigate the relationship between parental leave and childcare services. Clearly shows that many countries display characteristics normally associated with different types (hybrids and sub-types) . Therefore, this two-step approach demonstrates that disaggregated and aggregated analyses are equally important to account for hybrid welfare forms and make sense of the tensions and incongruences within and between policies.

  14. Formulation of an Integrated Model for Freshwater Resources Policy Evaluation in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, S.; Yoon, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Sigel, K.; Tilmant, A.; Lachaut, T.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Padula, S.; Mustafa, D.

    2014-12-01

    Jordan is one of the four water poorest countries in the world. It is a highly vulnerable arid region whose freshwater system is at a tipping point due to the confluence of severely limited water supplies, rapid population growth, refugee influxes, climate change and variability, internal and transboundary competition for shared freshwater resources, and institutional impediments. Our team is engaged in an interdisciplinary effort aimed at developing a new approach to evaluate policies that enhance sustainability of freshwater resource systems. Our work adopts a multi-agent modeling framework that incorporates institutional complexity to evaluate policy instruments for improving water security in Jordan. We are developing this model using a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena (e.g., groundwater-surface water flow, reservoir storage, network routing, salt balance, and crop yield) with human modules that represent behavior at multiple scales of decision making. The human modules adopt a multi-agent simulation approach, defining agents as autonomous decision-makers at the government, administrative, organizational, and user levels. Our goal is to construct a suite of policy intervention scenarios that will form the basis for analysis of freshwater sustainability. This work has benefitted from a strong working relationship with leaders of the water sector in Jordan. Our approach and the merit of the policy interventions should have significant transfer value to other water-stressed regions.

  15. Barriers and Enablers to Integrating Mental Health into Primary Care: A Policy Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durbin, Anna; Durbin, Janet; Hensel, Jennifer M; Deber, Raisa

    2016-01-01

    Integrating care for physical health and behavioural health (mental health and addictions) has been a longstanding challenge, although research supports the clinical and cost effectiveness of integrated care for many clients. In one such model, primary care (PC) physicians work with specialist physicians and non-physician providers (NPPs) to provide mental health and addictions care in PC settings. This Ontario, Canada-focused policy analysis draws on research evidence to examine potential barriers and enablers to this model of integrated care, focusing on mental health. Funding challenges pertain to incentivizing PC physicians to select patients with mental illness, include NPPs on the treatment team, and collaborate with specialist providers. Legal/regulatory challenges pertain to NPP scopes of practice for prescribing and counselling. Integrated care also requires revising the role of the physician and distribution of functions among the team. Policy support to integrate addictions treatment in PC may face similar challenges but requires further exploration.

  16. A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

  17. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.J.E. Metcalf

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014. Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges.

  18. Six challenges in modelling for public health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalf, C J E; Edmunds, W J; Lessler, J

    2015-03-01

    The World Health Organisation's definition of public health refers to all organized measures to prevent disease, promote health, and prolong life among the population as a whole (World Health Organization, 2014). Mathematical modelling plays an increasingly important role in helping to guide the most high impact and cost-effective means of achieving these goals. Public health programmes are usually implemented over a long period of time with broad benefits to many in the community. Clinical trials are seldom large enough to capture these effects. Observational data may be used to evaluate a programme after it is underway, but have limited value in helping to predict the future impact of a proposed policy. Furthermore, public health practitioners are often required to respond to new threats, for which there is little or no previous data on which to assess the threat. Computational and mathematical models can help to assess potential threats and impacts early in the process, and later aid in interpreting data from complex and multifactorial systems. As such, these models can be critical tools in guiding public health action. However, there are a number of challenges in achieving a successful interface between modelling and public health. Here, we discuss some of these challenges. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The duopoly policy in the Brazilian model of telecommunications reform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Mattos

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the important characteristics of the Brazilian Model of Telecommunications Reform (BMTR was the adoption of a duopoly policy, constraining the entry of new players in the wire segment in the transitional phase until free competition in 2002. This policy was also used in the reform experience of the United Kingdom in telecommunications in the 80's. The theoretical explanations behind this kind of policy are not strong enough to justify the duopoly policy in telecommunications. The most plausible idea rests on the prominent role conferred to privatization revenues in the design of the reform as a means of helping the efforts to consolidate price stabilization in the country. We introduce a model with the trade-offs between competition, duplication of fixed costs and privatization revenues. Despite the importance of fixed costs in the objective function of the regulator, we show that the privatization revenue target is the aspect, which justifies the imposition of entry constraints. The British experience shows that the sacrifice of this kind of policy regarding efficiency in the long run can be substantial.Uma das características mais importantes do Modelo Brasileiro de Reforma das Telecomunicações foi a adoção de uma política de duopólio, restringindo a entrada de novas empresas no segmento de telefonia fixa durante a fase de transição até a livre concorrência a ser adotada a partir de 2002. Essa política foi também utilizada na experiência de reforma das telecomunicações ocorrida no Reino Unido na década de 80. As explicações teóricas para justificar a adoção deste tipo de política não são satisfatórias o suficiente para justificar a política de duopólio como prescrição de política nas telecomunicações. A idéia mais plausível se baseia no papel proeminente conferido às receitas de privatização no desenho da reforma como forma de auxiliar os esforços de consolidação da estabilização de preços no

  20. The Dutch sustainable building policy: A model for developing countries?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchert, Luciana [Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism, University of Sao Paulo, Rua do Lago, 876, CEP 05508.900, Sao Paulo SP (Brazil)

    2007-02-15

    This article explores the institutionalization of environmental policies in the Dutch building sector and the applicability of the current model to developing countries. First, it analyzes the transition of sustainable building practices in the Netherlands from the 1970s until today, exploring how these were originally embedded in a discourse on 'de-modernization', which attempted to improve the environmental performance of building stocks by means of self-sufficient technologies, whereas nowadays they adopt a framework of 'ecological modernization', with integrative approaches seeking to improve the environmental performance of building stocks through more efficient-rather than self-sufficient-technologies. The study subsequently shows how the current Dutch sustainable building framework has thereby managed to achieve a pragmatic and widely accepted rationale, which can serve to orient the ecological restructuring of building stocks in developing countries. (author)

  1. Clearing the air. Air quality modelling for policy support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, C.

    2017-01-01

    The studies presented in this thesis were performed to provide policy makers with more accurate information about the sources of air pollution and the possible consequences of future developments on air quality. This enables policy makers to make better informed decisions when formulating policies

  2. Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

    2015-09-15

    Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Reverse Transfer: Paving the Pathway. ECS Education Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lexi

    2015-01-01

    States are taking several distinct approaches to implement reverse transfer policies. Although contextualized by state-specific factors, approaches to policy implementation commonly include determination of a group or regulatory body responsible for policy oversight, technology, funding and identification of students eligible to participate in…

  4. A Theoretical Analysis of Agricultural Policy in Nigeria.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The colonial and post-colonial Nigerian State inherited agricultural policy antithetical to its development and the realization of domestic objectives. This paper establishes a theoretical nexus between a neo-colonial state, poverty, agricultural practices and policies. It examines the agricultural policies of the Nigerian state ...

  5. Analysis of the agricultural policies in the development of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This review work identifies the two main agricultural policies in Nigeria between 1988 and 2000, and 2001 to date, the broad policy objectives and the main features of the agricultural policies. The paper examines the primary role of the agricultural sector in the growth and development of the Nigerian economy. The main ...

  6. Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjin Tian

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

  7. Priorities of Municipal Policy Makers in Relation to Physical Activity and the Built Environment: A Latent Class Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Monica L; Goins, Karin Valentine; Anatchkova, Milena; Brownson, Ross C; Evenson, Kelly; Maddock, Jay; Clausen, Kristian E; Lemon, Stephenie C

    2016-01-01

    To examine policy makers' public policy priorities related to physical activity and the built environment, identify classes of policy makers based on priorities using latent class analysis, and assess factors associated with class membership. Cross-sectional survey data from municipal officials in 94 cities and towns across 6 US states were analyzed. Participants (N = 423) were elected or appointed municipal officials spanning public health, planning, transportation/public works, community and economic development, parks and recreation, and city management. Participants rated the importance of 11 policy areas (public health, physical activity, obesity, economic development, livability, climate change, air quality, natural resource conservation, traffic congestion, traffic safety, and needs of vulnerable populations) in their daily job responsibilities. Latent class analysis was used to determine response patterns and identify distinct classes based on officials' priorities. Logistic regression models assessed participant characteristics associated with class membership. Four classes of officials based on policy priorities emerged: (1) economic development and livability; (2) economic development and traffic concerns; (3) public health; and (4) general (all policy areas rated as highly important). Compared with class 4, officials in classes 1 and 3 were more likely to have a graduate degree, officials in class 2 were less likely to be in a public health job/department, and officials in class 3 were more likely to be in a public health job/department. Findings can guide public health professionals in framing discussions with policy makers to maximize physical activity potential of public policy initiatives, particularly economic development.

  8. Contemporary Federal Education Policy and Rural Schools: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jerry; Howley, Craig B.

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on contemporary federal education policy as it manifests in rural schools. Rural schools differ appreciably from nonrural schools in terms of organizational systems, structures, and culture. Federal policies that drive school improvement initiatives (e.g., those regulating the functioning of schools and those managing the…

  9. Responses to Including Parents in Teacher Evaluation Policy: A Critical Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Erica; LeChasseur, Kimberly; Donaldson, Morgaen L.

    2018-01-01

    The intersection of development in family and school settings has been well established and education policies have begun to promote ways to bridge the two contexts (i.e. teacher evaluations). For this manuscript, authors focus on how teachers and principals used a state educator evaluation policy to position parents as authorities on education.…

  10. The Politics of Educational Policy Studies: A Preliminary Analysis of Leading Educational Policy Journal Publications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Ian

    2009-01-01

    This paper argues that the content, analytical approaches and institutional affiliations of authors of articles published in the latest issues of two leading educational policy studies journals provide useful insights into the contested nature of educational policy studies. The paper draws upon a selection of articles published in 2007/08 issues…

  11. Leaders and laggards in environmental policy: a quantitative analysis of domestic policy outputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liefferink, D.; Arts, B.; Kamstra, J.; Ooijevaar, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the domestic characteristics of 'leaders' and 'laggards' in environmental policy in 21 European countries as well as the USA, Mexico and Japan from 1970. Data with regard to environmental policy strength are related to a set of potentially explanatory domestic factors. By way

  12. Checklist "Open Access Policies": Analysis of the Open Access Policies of Public Universities in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Bauer

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This checklist provides an overview of the Open Access policies implemented at Austrian universities and extramural research institutions. Furthermore, the polices adopted at nine public universities are analyzed and the respective text modules are categorized thematically. The second part of the checklist presents measures for the promotion of Open Access following the implementation of an Open Access policy.

  13. Dissolving decision making? Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, Stans

    2014-12-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making. Attention is paid to three aspects of the wider context of the models: a) the history of the construction process; b) (changes in) the political and scientific environments; and c) the use in policy processes over longer periods of time. Models are more successfully used when they are constructed in a stable political and scientific environment. Stability and certainty within a scientific field seems to be a key predictor for the usefulness of models for policy making. The economic model is more disputed than the ecology-based model and the model that has its theoretical foundation in physics and chemistry. The roles models play in policy processes are too complex to be considered as straightforward technocratic powers.

  14. Applying nonlinear MODM model to supply chain management with quantity discount policy under complex fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to deal with the supply chain management (SCM with quantity discount policy under the complex fuzzy environment, which is characterized as the bi-fuzzy variables. By taking into account the strategy and the process of decision making, a bi-fuzzy nonlinear multiple objective decision making (MODM model is presented to solve the proposed problem.Design/methodology/approach: The bi-fuzzy variables in the MODM model are transformed into the trapezoidal fuzzy variables by the DMs's degree of optimism ?1 and ?2, which are de-fuzzified by the expected value index subsequently. For solving the complex nonlinear model, a multi-objective adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm (MO-APSO is designed as the solution method.Findings: The proposed model and algorithm are applied to a typical example of SCM problem to illustrate the effectiveness. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the results, the bi-fuzzy nonlinear MODM SCM model is proved to be sensitive to the possibility level ?1.Practical implications: The study focuses on the SCM under complex fuzzy environment in SCM, which has a great practical significance. Therefore, the bi-fuzzy MODM model and MO-APSO can be further applied in SCM problem with quantity discount policy.Originality/value: The bi-fuzzy variable is employed in the nonlinear MODM model of SCM to characterize the hybrid uncertain environment, and this work is original. In addition, the hybrid crisp approach is proposed to transferred to model to an equivalent crisp one by the DMs's degree of optimism and the expected value index. Since the MODM model consider the bi-fuzzy environment and quantity discount policy, so this paper has a great practical significance.

  15. Effects of post-Kyoto policy on the Swiss national economy - Analysis using a single-country equilibrium model; Volkswirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Schweizer Post-Kyoto-Politik - Analyse mit einem dynamischen Gleichgewichtsmodell fuer die Schweiz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-08-15

    This final report elaborated for the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) deals with questions concerning Swiss climate policy after 2012. In 2012, existing climate legislation as defined in CO{sub 2} emission legislation is to be revised and brought in line with European legislation on greenhouse gases. The paper presents and discusses the proposals of the Swiss government that are to make Switzerland climate-neutral. These questions include how high a steering-tax must be in order to provide a 20% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions, which effects on the economy in general (BIP) and on particular sectors are to be expected, how households will be affected and how large the positive secondary side-effects are. The methods used in the study and their limitations are examined. In particular, a dynamic, single-country equilibrium model is introduced and various scenarios are discussed

  16. Modeling of the maintenance policy of an offshore wind farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maddens, L.; Labeau, P.E.

    2004-01-01

    Wind energy has a key position in the market of renewable electricity production means. Offshore wind farms offer additional surfaces to exploit this form of energy, together with more favourable wind conditions. Yet offshore windmills ask for higher investment and maintenance costs. Optimising the latter costs should therefore turn out to be particularly beneficial for this technology. The present paper summarizes the main modelling aspects of the maintenance of a typical offshore wind farm, such as the accessibility of the wind turbines and the impact of weather conditions, the cost of the different transport resources, the number of maintenance teams, a tolerated unavailability of part of the windmills, the opportunity to combine corrective and preventive maintenance actions on one or several windmills. All these features were embedded in a Petri net model of the maintenance policy of the farm, allowing to estimate the maintenance costs entailed by several strategies. Advantages and drawbacks of using Petri nets for the modelling of such a maintenance strategy are finally discussed. (authors)

  17. Modeling sustainable groundwater management: packaging and sequencing of policy interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteban, Encarna; Dinar, Ariel

    2013-04-15

    Of the many studies estimating effectiveness of policy reforms most have been considering various types of policy reforms in isolation from each other. Such pattern has also been the case in water resource regulations. In the case of groundwater almost all policy interventions considered in the literature have been implemented individually, without taking into account the possible interactions and impacts among them. In this paper, we focus on two policy instruments: water quota and uniform water tax. The paper demonstrates how packaging and sequencing sets of policy interventions, with possible triggers to initiate their time of implementation, may be more effective in achieving a sustainable groundwater management than single policies when environmental externalities exist. The policy instruments are applied to the Western la Mancha aquifer in Southeast Spain, a major aquifer that is managed by a command and control approach. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The Role of Decision Models in Health Care Policy: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Baptiste, Ava; Schapira, Marilyn M; Cravens, Catherine; Chambers, James D; Neumann, Peter J; Siegel, Joanna; Lawrence, William

    2016-07-01

    In 2009, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) underwent a National Coverage Determination on computed tomography colonography (CTC) to screen for colorectal cancer. The Cancer Intervention & Surveillance Network developed decision models to inform this decision. The purpose of our study was to investigate the role of models in this decision. We performed a descriptive case study. We conducted semistructured telephone interviews with members of the CMS coverage and analysis group (CAG) and Medicare Coverage and Analysis Advisory Committee (MEDCAC) panelists. Informed by previously published literature, we developed a coding scheme to analyze interview transcripts, MEDCAC meeting transcripts, and the final CMS decision memo. Four members of the CAG and 8 MEDCAC panelists were interviewed. The total number of codes across all study documents was 772. We found evidence that decision makers believed in the adequacy of models to inform decision making. In interview transcripts, the code Models Are Adequate to Inform was more frequent than the code Models Are Inadequate to Inform (47 times v. 5). Discussion of model conceptualization dominated the MEDCAC meeting (Model Conceptualization assigned 113 times) and was frequently discussed during interviews (Model Conceptualization assigned 84 times). We also found evidence that the models helped to focus the policy discussion. Across study documents, the codes Focus on Cost, Focus on Clinical-Health Impact, and Focus on Inadequacy of Evidence Base were assigned 99, 98, and 97 times, respectively. Decision makers involved in the CTC decision believed in the adequacy of models to inform coverage decisions. The model played a role in focusing the CTC coverage policy discussion. © The Authors 2016.

  19. Policy analysis tools for air quality and health : report from the May 19, 2005 workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gower, S.; Shortreed, J.

    2005-08-01

    The total impact of air pollution on human health is not well understood. This workshop examined key policy issues concerning air quality, and the availability of models and analyses to inform decision-makers. Attendants included stakeholders from health and environment departments of municipal, provincial and federal governments, as well as academics, consulting firms, industry and non-governmental organizations. The complexity of computer-based models was identified as a significant barrier to the development of a better understanding of the impacts of air pollution on human health, and it was noted that most models are not equipped to deal with the various levels of policy and decision-making that occur across many jurisdictions. It was observed that there is also a lack of data. It was suggested that efficient and cost-effective models are needed to identify good policy options, as well as tools that maximize the integration of information in a comprehensive manner. Evaluations of the impacts of air pollution should occur within the broad context of public health and consider both social and interactive needs. Continuing stakeholder dialogue was recommended, as well as a more in-depth exploration of policy analysis tools. A national meeting was planned to build on conclusions from the workshop. A guidance document was proposed to provide best practices to guide non-experts on health impacts, the interpretation of monitoring results, and the selection of models and appropriate analyses. Case studies of issues facing municipalities concerning planning and land use decisions were recommended, as well as various actions to mitigate the effects of poor air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Five presentations were given, followed by breakout sessions and discussions. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

    2013-01-01

    We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

  1. Agri‐environmental Policies to Meet Consumer Preferences in Japan: An Economic‐Biophysical Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Uetake

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Promoting environmentally friendly farming products is crucial to meeting consumer demand. Although governments implement policy measures to improve the environmental performance of the agriculture sector, theirimpacts are difficult to assess. This study analyses the performance of agri‐environmental policies in Japan, by using the OECD’s policy impact model and reference level framework. In particular, it identifies the environmental impacts of three simulated agri‐environmental policies based on farms’ characteristics. The results suggest that a policy mix of regulation and an incentive payment would reduce environmental impacts, suggesting that targeted approaches could improve the cost‐effectiveness of agri‐environmental policies.

  2. Green Purchasing Behavior Analysis of Government Policy About Paid Plastic Bags

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Khoiruman

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This research will be conducted to know: 1 The influence of green perceived value to consumer green trust to use plastic bag after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. 2 The influence of green perceived risk to consumer green trust to use plastic bag after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. 3 The effect of green trust on green purchase behavior of consumers to use plastic bags after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. The study was conducted in modern retail stores (Alfamart, Indomart and Superindo in Surakarta using 200 respondents who shop at the modern retail store. A model that can be used to measure green purchasing behavior in the use of paid plastic bags using four interrelated variables: green perceived value, green perceived risk, green trust and green purchasing. Data analysis using Structural Equation Model (SEM. The result of analysis and discussion showed that green perceived value have positive and significant effect to green trust, green trust has positive effect on green purchasing, but green perceived risk has no significant effect to green trust.

  3. Network structures as a model of interaction between state and non-state actors in EU foreign policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinegubov Alexey Leonidovich

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This article studies the role of network structures in EU foreign policy. The role of networks in functioning of EU is analyzed as the model of interaction between state and non-state actors in contemporary world politics. Some studies, including the project of National Intelligence Council of USA, demonstrate that there is a tendency of growing influence of non-state actors. The model of interaction that has developed in EU can be considered as a model of the future. That’s why the type of force used by EU is called “post-modern”. This model is conductive to wide use of “soft power” and some of its variants including “normative” and “network” power. Quasi-federal character of EU’s structure, whiсh is characterized by many intersecting and delegated sovereign functions, is a reason of appearance of the analyzed model. Network practices and network technologies are widely used in the process of developing and realization of EU’s policy on three levels: 1 development and realization of EU’s general policy; 2 the policy of EU’s enlargement and deeper integration of the newcomers into Europe’s life; 3 the neighborhood policy and “Europeanization” of neighboring to EU states that cannot become EU members. The last dimension of EU policy causes a conflict with Russia, which makes this analysis politically relevant.

  4. Campus Sustainability Governance in Canada: A Content Analysis of Post-Secondary Institutions' Sustainability Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughter, Philip; McKenzie, Marcia; Lidstone, Lauri; Wright, Tarah

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to provide an overview of a content analysis of sustainability policies from Canadian post-secondary education institutions. The paper reports findings on the orientations to sustainability evident in the policies; references to other policies within the documents; and other key themes on how sustainability is engaged in…

  5. Geothermal power, policy, and design: Using levelized cost of energy and sensitivity analysis to target improved policy incentives for the U.S. geothermal market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Christopher L.

    At the core of the geothermal industry is a need to identify how policy incentives can better be applied for optimal return. Literature from Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011) suggest that a more tailored approach to crafting geothermal policy is warranted. In this research the guiding theory is based on those suggestions and is structured to represent a policy analysis approach using analytical methods. The methods being used are focus on qualitative and quantitative results. To address the qualitative sections of this research an extensive review of contemporary literature is used to identify the frequency of use for specific barriers, and is followed upon with an industry survey to determine existing gaps. As a result there is support for certain barriers and justification for expanding those barriers found within the literature. This method of inquiry is an initial point for structuring modeling tools to further quantify the research results as part of the theoretical framework. Analytical modeling utilizes the levelized cost of energy as a foundation for comparative assessment of policy incentives. Model parameters use assumptions to draw conclusions from literature and survey results to reflect unique attributes held by geothermal power technologies. Further testing by policy option provides an opportunity to assess the sensitivity of each variable with respect to applied policy. Master limited partnerships, feed in tariffs, RD&D, and categorical exclusions all result as viable options for mitigating specific barriers associated to developing geothermal power. The results show reductions of levelized cost based upon the model's exclusive parameters. These results are also compared to contemporary policy options highlighting the need for tailored policy, as discussed by Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011). It is the intent of this research to provide the reader with a descriptive understanding of the role of

  6. Open Access Journal Policies: A Systematic Analysis of Radiology Journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Anand; Lobner, Katie; Fritz, Jan

    2018-02-01

    The open access movement has pushed for greater access to scientific knowledge by expanding access to scientific journal articles. There is limited information about the extent to which open access policies have been adopted by radiology journals. We performed a systematic analysis to ascertain the proportion of radiology journals with open access options. A search was performed with the assistance of a clinical informationist. Full and mixed English-language diagnostic and interventional radiology Web of Science journals (impact factors > 1.0) were included. Nuclear medicine, radiation oncology, physics, and solicitation-only journals were excluded. Primary outcome was open access option (yes or no) with additional outcomes including presence or absence of embargo, complete or partial copyright transfer, publication fees, and self-archiving policies. Secondary outcomes included journal citations, journal impact factors, immediacy, Eigenfactor, and article influence scores. Independent double readings were performed with differences resolved by consensus, supplemented by contacting editorial staff at each journal. In all, 125 journals were identified; review yielded 49 journals (39%, mean impact factor of 2.61). Thirty-six of the journals had open access options (73.4%), and four journals were exclusively open access (8.2%). Twelve-month embargoes were most commonly cited (90.6%) with 28.6% of journals stating that they did not require a complete transfer of copyright. Prices for open access options ranged from $750 to $4,000 (median $3,000). No statistically significant differences were found in journal impact measures comparing journals with open access options to journals without open access options. Diagnostic and interventional radiology journals have widely adopted open access options with a few radiology journals being exclusively open access. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Analyzing Public Discourse: Using Media Content Analysis to Understand the Policy Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraisky, Nancy Green

    2016-01-01

    One of the most basic and obvious sources of data for education policy analysis is text. This article discusses content analysis as an important part of the methodological toolbox for elucidating patterns and trends about education policy. Focusing specifically on media, I show how media content analysis can produce nuanced insights about the ways…

  8. Language Ideology or Language Practice? An Analysis of Language Policy Documents at Swedish Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkman, Beyza

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an analysis and interpretation of language policy documents from eight Swedish universities with regard to intertextuality, authorship and content analysis of the notions of language practices and English as a lingua franca (ELF). The analysis is then linked to Spolsky's framework of language policy, namely language…

  9. Environmental modelling as an interface between policy and science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaauboer, R.O.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper some recent developments in environmental modelling in the Netherlands are reviewed from a radiological background. An example is the growing interest in the integration of risk-analysis for exposures to ionizing radiation with that for chemicals and other environmental pollutants. Also since the Chernobyl accident the need of interdisciplinary cooperation, in order to obtain on-line predictive models is more strongly felt. For example atmospheric transport models for chemical pollutants are used for the modelling of the dispersion of radioactive material and vice versa models that were primarily meant for radiation protection purposes are used for other environmental pollutants such as dioxins. At the same time this tendency to integrate and/or couple compartmental models requires harmonization and has its own specific problems. Examples are the difficulties in handling uncertainties, validation, handling of large data bases, correlations between processes in various models and the differing methods and applications of the constituent models (deterministic, probabilistic, for normal or emergency situations etc.). It is thought that the radiological expertise can play an important role in some if not most of these trends in environmental modelling. (9 refs., 1 fig.)

  10. A Policy Analysis of the Coast Guard's Existing Patient Satisfaction System and Recommendations for Improvement

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coughlin, Kelly A

    2007-01-01

    .... This paper evaluates CG organizational demands, describes CG practice landscape, presents standards, reviews initial clinic process analysis, and evaluates the cost and criteria of proposed policy alternatives...

  11. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  12. Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model

    OpenAIRE

    Shulgin, A.

    2015-01-01

    Optimization of coefficients in monetary policy rules is performed on the base of the DSGE-model with two independent monetary policy instruments estimated on the Russian data. It was found that welfare maximizing policy rules lead to inadequate result and pro-cyclical monetary policy. Optimal coefficients in Taylor rule and exchange rate rule allow to decrease volatility estimated on Russian data of 2001-2012 by about 20%. The degree of exchange rate flexibility parameter was found to be low...

  13. Modeling the potential impacts of different radon policies for the U.S. housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, M.D.; Ritchie, I.M.

    1995-01-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels). Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPS's projections of 2,200 'lives saved annually' as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in part to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies. (au)

  14. Dynamic mobility applications policy analysis : policy and institutional issues for intelligent network flow optimization (INFLO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    The report documents policy considerations for the Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) connected vehicle applications : bundle. INFLO aims to optimize network flow on freeways and arterials by informing motorists of existing and impen...

  15. Dissolving decision making? : Models and their roles in decision-making processes and policy at large

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeiss, Ragna; van Egmond, S.

    2014-01-01

    This article studies the roles three science-based models play in Dutch policy and decision making processes. Key is the interaction between model construction and environment. Their political and scientific environments form contexts that shape the roles of models in policy decision making.

  16. Political economy models and agricultural policy formation : empirical applicability and relevance for the CAP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der F.A.

    1997-01-01

    This study explores the relevance and applicability of political economy models for the explanation of agricultural policies. Part I (chapters 4-7) takes a general perspective and evaluates the empirical applicability of voting models and interest group models to agricultural policy

  17. Policy Analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2013-09-01

    For those who support U.S. oil sands development, the Canadian oil sands industry is often identified as a model the U.S. might emulate, yielding financial and energy security benefits. For opponents of domestic oil sands development, the Canadian oil sands experience illustrates the risks that opponents of development believe should deter domestic policymakers from incenting U.S. oil sands development. This report does not seek to evaluate the particular underpinnings of either side of this policy argument, but rather attempts to delve into the question of whether the Canadian experience has relevance as a foundational model for U.S. oil sands development. More specifically, this report seeks to assess whether and how the Canadian oil sands experience might be predictive or instructive in the context of fashioning a framework for a U.S. oil sands industry. In evaluating the implications of these underpinnings for a prospective U.S. oil sands industry, this report concentrates on prospective development of the oil sands deposits found in Utah.

  18. Analysis of selected policies towards universal health coverage in Uganda: the policy implementation barometer protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoro, Charles; Rutebemberwa, Elizeus; Twalo, Thembinkosi; Mwendera, Chikondi; Douglas, Mbuyiselo; Mukuru, Moses; Kasasa, Simon; Ssengooba, Freddie

    2018-01-01

    Policy implementation remains an under researched area in most low and middle income countries and it is not surprising that several policies are implemented without a systematic follow up of why and how they are working or failing. This study is part of a larger project called Supporting Policy Engagement for Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda. It seeks to support policymakers monitor the implementation of vital programmes for the realisation of policy goals for Universal Health Coverage. A Policy Implementation Barometer (PIB) is proposed as a mechanism to provide feedback to the decision makers about the implementation of a selected set of policy programmes at various implementation levels (macro, meso and micro level). The main objective is to establish the extent of implementation of malaria, family planning and emergency obstetric care policies in Uganda and use these results to support stakeholder engagements for corrective action. This is the first PIB survey of the three planned surveys and its specific objectives include: assessment of the perceived appropriateness of implementation programmes to the identified policy problems; determination of enablers and constraints to implementation of the policies; comparison of on-line and face-to-face administration of the PIB questionnaire among target respondents; and documentation of stakeholder responses to PIB findings with regard to corrective actions for implementation. The PIB will be a descriptive and analytical study employing mixed methods in which both quantitative and qualitative data will be systematically collected and analysed. The first wave will focus on 10 districts and primary data will be collected through interviews. The study seeks to interview 570 respondents of which 120 will be selected at national level with 40 based on each of the three policy domains, 200 from 10 randomly selected districts, and 250 from 50 facilities. Half of the respondents at

  19. A FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKET POLICIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graţiela Georgiana Carica

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyse European labour market policies and their integrated guidelines, by highlighting various measures that need to be adopted in order to increase labour productivity, with positive effects on long-term economic development. The paper methodizes the main conditions complied by structural reforms in order to encourage labour employment and the policies that frame a more efficient unemployment insurance system crucial to increase security while encouraging the unemployed to look for a job and to accept a job offer, respectively on flexicurity policies. We found that employment rates are generally associated with large expenses on labour market policies and with an increased number of participants to programs developed within these types of policies. The degree of influence and strong dependence between outcome and labour market policies are illustrated in various ways and discussed within the paper.

  20. Analysis on policies text of air pollution control in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ZHANG, Yujuan; WANG, Wen; ZHANG, Wei

    2017-04-01

    Air pollution is one of the most serious environmental problems, and it is also the inevitable result of the extensive economic development mode. The matter of air pollution in Beijing is becoming more and more serious since 2010, which has a great impact on the normal social production, living and human health. These hazards have been highly valued by the whole society. More than 30 years have been pasted since controlling the air pollution and the system of policies was relatively complete. These policies have improved the quality of atmospheric and prevented environment further deterioration. The policies performance is not obvious. It is urgent trouble to improve policy performance. This paper analyzes the 103 policies text of air pollution control in Beijing, and researches status, history and problems, and put forward suggestions on policy improvement and innovation at last.

  1. A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina BALACEANU

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture is perceived by the EU as occupying a special place in its economic and social structure, because of its content and its relevance at the level of each individual. Consequently, the EU sustains that the relative poverty of a high proportion of its agricultural and rural population needs a protectionist price policy combined with a long term policy that would aim at its rural development, especially in the peripheral and poorly developed areas. Between EU policies Common Agricultural Policy is regarded as one of the most important. This not only because of the budget for the Union to finance this policy (which is about 50% of the total budget the number of people affected and territory involved, but also the historical importance of delegated sovereign attributes EU Member States to the decision. The importance of the Common Agricultural Policy derives of close links with the single market and economic and monetary union, two key areas of European integration.

  2. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  3. Configuration model of partial repairable spares under batch ordering policy based on inventory state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruan Minzhi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rational planning of spares configuration project is an effective approach to improve equipment availability as well as reduce life cycle cost (LCC. With an analysis of various impacts on support system, the spares demand rate forecast model is constructed. According to systemic analysis method, spares support effectiveness evaluation indicators system is built, and then, initial spares configuration and optimization method is researched. To the issue of discarding and consumption for incomplete repairable items, its expected backorders function is approximated by Laplace demand distribution. Combining the (s−1, s and (R, Q inventory policy, the spares resupply model is established under the batch ordering policy based on inventory state, and the optimization analysis flow for spares configuration is proposed. Through application on shipborne equipment spares configuration, the given scenarios are analyzed under two constraint targets: one is the support effectiveness, and the other is the spares cost. Analysis reveals that the result is consistent with practical regulation; therefore, the model’s correctness, method’s validity as well as optimization project’s rationality are proved to a certain extent.

  4. Empirical analysis of the solar incentive policy for Tennessee solar value chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawhney, Rapinder; Thakur, Kaveri; Venkatesan, Bharadwaj; Ji, Shuguang; Upreti, Girish; Sanseverino, John

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Tennessee solar value chain (TNSVC) is modeled to analyze effect of policy on demand. • TNSVC model replicates realistic scenarios to gauge the economic impact on state. • Simulation study determines that the TNSVC capacity is greater than demand. • Direct cash incentives have greater impact on demand than indirect incentives. • The model portrays a holistic approach to assist strategic energy policy analysis. - Abstract: The market for solar energy in the US has grown exponentially due to increased consumer demand resulting from price reduction via economies of scale, technological progress, and a variety of incentives from federal and state governments as well as utility companies. The installation of solar power in Tennessee has more than doubled each year from 2009 to 2011. In this paper, we focus on the behavior of the Tennessee Solar Value Chain (TNSVC) to study the factors that influence growth of solar industry in the state. The impact of existing incentives on the TNSVC is analyzed. The TNSVC is simulated based on inputs from on-site survey to estimate economic impact in terms of the number of jobs added and the tax revenue generated in the state. In addition, a sensitivity analysis for the impact on the TNSVC under different policies those may be adopted by the state of Tennessee in the future is conducted. This paper employs a holistic model which can predict PV installation demand, understand solar value chain capacity, and estimate the revenue generation. It should be noted that the method employed in this study is not unique to the solar energy industry in Tennessee. The data utilized in this study is a combination of public domain information and surveys of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and installers. This makes the model in this paper flexible enough to be applied to assess the solar value chain in other state or country

  5. Monetary policy implications of financial innovation: In-depth analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bernoth, Kerstin; Gebauer, Stefan; Schäfer, Dorothea

    2017-01-01

    In this policy brief, we argue that the financial innovations triggered by the FinTech industry have the potential to affect the transmission of monetary policy as well as the informational content of important monetary indicators. The growing FinTech industry could contribute substantially to the emergence of nonbank finance as a substitute for traditional commercial bank finance. While the overall effect of nonbank finance on monetary policy transmission is not yet clear, we argue that regu...

  6. The history of NATO TNF policy: The role of studies, analysis and exercises conference proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinne, R.L.

    1994-02-01

    This conference was organized to study and analyze the role of simulation, analysis, modeling, and exercises in the history of NATO policy. The premise was not that the results of past studies will apply to future policy, but rather that understanding what influenced the decision process -- and how -- would be of value. The structure of the conference was built around discussion panels. The panels were augmented by a series of papers and presentations focusing on particular TNF events, issues, studies, or exercises. The conference proceedings consist of three volumes. Volume 1 contains the conference introduction, agenda, biographical sketches of principal participants, and analytical summary of the presentations and panels. This volume contains a short introduction and the papers and presentations from the conference. Volume 3 contains selected papers by Brig. Gen. Robert C. Richardson III (Ret.). Individual papers in this volume were abstracted and indexed for the database

  7. Analysis of Implementation The Policy on Malaria Elimination in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betty Roosihermiatie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: As a tropic country Indonesia still faces malaria problems. In Asean, indonesia is one of three countries with the highest malaria morbidity. In 2007, 396 (80% of 495 districts/municipalities in indonesia are malaria. In 2009 the government issued a decree of the minister of health No 293 on malaria elimination. The study aimed to analyze the implementation decree of Ministry of Health No. 293/2009 on malaria elimination. Methods: It was a descriptive study. The study was conducted in 4 provinces, and 4 districts based on malaria elimination stages as in Bali province and Karangasem district, Riau islands province and Bintan district, West Nusa Tenggara province and west Lombok district, and Maluku province and South Halmahera district. The stakeholders were Heads and malaria programmers at province/district Health Offices and the related programs. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data were taken. Data were collected by focus group discussion and secondary data. Analysis for Ministry of Health decree No.293 year 2009 on 1 Comphrehend, 2 Implementation, and, 3 Comittment, 4 Innovation intervension to support malaria elimination, 5 Sustainability of activity community empowerment, 6 Proportion of budget. Results: showed there was district that had not issued local policy on malaria elimination, the implementation with comittment especially that health centers in areas under study corfi rm diagnose by laboratory examination and malaria treatment by Artemisin Combined Therapy (ACT, although there were still treatment to clinical malaria, innovation activities were of bersifat local spesifi c, and reward for Juru Malaria Desa or malaria cadre to increase malaria suspect case detection, and with district budget for malaria program ranged 0,95-5,6% of the total budget. Recomendations: It suggested to advocate all malaria endemic areas to issue local policy on malaria elimination, decide intervension of the

  8. Linking least-cost energy system costs models with MCA: An assessment of the EU renewable energy targets and supporting policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oikonomou, V., E-mail: vlasis@jiqweb.or [Joint Implementation Network, Laan Corpus den Hoorn, 300, Groningen (Netherlands); Flamos, A., E-mail: aflamos@unipi.g [Department of Industrial Management and Technology, University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli and Dimitriou str., 18534 Piraeus (Greece); Gargiulo, M., E-mail: Maurizio.gargiulo@e4sma.co [Energy Engineering Economic Environment Systems Modelling and Analysis S.r.L (34SMA), Turin (Italy); Giannakidis, G., E-mail: ggian@cres.g [Energy Systems Analysis Laboratory, Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Savings, 19th Km Marathonos Ave. 19009 Pikermi, Attiki (Greece); Kanudia, A., E-mail: amit@kanors.co [Kanors, Vasundhra Enclave, Delhi (India); Spijker, E. [Joint Implementation Network, Laan Corpus den Hoorn, 300, Groningen (Netherlands); Grafakos, S., E-mail: s.grafakos@ihs.n [Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (Drift) and Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS), Erasmus University Rotterdam, BurgemeesterOudlaan 50, P.O. Box 1935, 3000 BX, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2011-05-15

    There are several technoeconomic modeling approaches that provide quantitative results such as costs and the level of achievement of certain renewable energy (RE) policy targets. These approaches often do not consider other important factors for policy implementation (such as socio-political aspects and stakeholders' preferences). Recent multicriteria analysis (MCA) approaches attempt to integrate these multiple aspects in decision making process. In this respect, aim of this paper is to combine technoeconomic modeling and MCA approaches in a general analytical framework incorporating multiple aspects. Each method in an RE policy interaction problem can feed in the necessary policy information for the subsequent steps of an ex-ante and an ex-post assessment in a decision tree, starting from recognizing the need for implementing a new policy in parallel to the incumbent ones, assessing the actual policy costs and finally identifying the social acceptability of these RE policies.

  9. Agile: a problem-based model of regulatory policy making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, A.; van Engers, T.

    2013-01-01

    We understand regulatory policy problems against the backdrop of existing implementations of a regulatory framework. There are argument schemes for proposing a policy and for criticising a proposal, rooted in a shared understanding that there is an existing regulatory framework which is implemented

  10. Developing effective policy strategies to retain health workers in rural Bangladesh: a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rawal, Lal B; Joarder, Taufique; Islam, Sheikh Md Shariful; Uddin, Aftab; Ahmed, Syed Masud

    2015-05-20

    Retention of human resources for health (HRH), particularly physicians and nurses in rural and remote areas, is a major problem in Bangladesh. We reviewed relevant policies and provisions in relation to HRH aiming to develop appropriate rural retention strategies in Bangladesh. We conducted a document review, thorough search and review of relevant literature published from 1971 through May 2013, key informant interviews with policy elites (health policy makers, managers, researchers, etc.), and a roundtable discussion with key stakeholders and policy makers. We used the World Health Organization's (WHO's) guidelines as an analytical matrix to examine the rural retention policies under 4 domains, i) educational, ii) regulatory, iii) financial, and iv) professional and personal development, and 16 sub-domains. Over the past four decades, Bangladesh has developed and implemented a number of health-related policies and provisions concerning retention of HRH. The district quota system in admissions is in practice to improve geographical representation of the students. Students of special background including children of freedom fighters and tribal population have allocated quotas. In private medical and nursing schools, at least 5% of seats are allocated for scholarships. Medical education has a provision for clinical rotation in rural health facilities. Further, in the public sector, every newly recruited medical doctor must serve at least 2 years at the upazila level. To encourage serving in hard-to-reach areas, particularly in three Hill Tract districts of Chittagong division, the government provides an additional 33% of the basic salary, but not exceeding US$ 38 per month. This amount is not attractive enough, and such provision is absent for those working in other rural areas. Although the government has career development and promotion plans for doctors and nurses, these plans are often not clearly specified and not implemented effectively. The government is

  11. Systems analysis and energy policy in Baden-Wuerttemberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boese, P.; Brand, P.; Friede, G.; Gschwendtner, H.; Hanke, H.; Hoecker, K.H.; Hudetz, W.; Klaiss, H.; Legler, H.; Ott, A.E.

    1976-02-01

    In this volume six reports on the state-of-the-art and results of work in the field of regional energy forecasting methods based on a systems analysis approach are presented. The reports deal primarily with the following broad topics: the relation between energy supply and economic development; the impact of a further enlargement of energy conversion plants on the ecological and socio-economic development of the region of Baden-Wuerttemberg with special regard to the location of big energy plants; the general problems of an application of regionalized, dynamic energy models and the applicability of models disaggregated by sectors to a specific region. (orig.) [de

  12. Institutional Support : Institute for Policy Analysis and Research ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Au départ la division tanzanienne du Réseau d'études sur la politique technologique en Afrique (African Technology Policy Studies Network), et ce, depuis 1984, ATPS-Tanzania est devenu... Voir davantageSoutien institutionnel à African Technology Policy Studies - Tanzania (ATPS-Tanzania). Nous finançons des ...

  13. Avian Influenza Policy Analysis | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to enhance understanding of national policy-making process with respect to two critical issues: poultry vaccination and antiviral drugs for humans. Researchers will examine the content, context and process of antiviral drug and poultry vaccination policies in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, comparing ...

  14. Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Policy Shocks and Current Account ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the current account as well as the dynamic interactions among fiscal policy shocks and current account with the other macroeconomic variables: real output, real interest rate and exchange rate for Nigeria over the periods 1980:1-2010:4. The identification of fiscal ...

  15. Analysis of Spanish Policies for the Integration of Immigrant Schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Usarralde, María Jesús; Yanes-Cabrera, Cristina; Llevot-Calvet, Nuria

    2016-01-01

    The Organic Law on the Improvement of the National Education Quality ("Ley Orgánica de Reforma de la Calidad Educativa") readdressed one of the most significant educational issues: educational policies related to immigrant students. Therefore, this is an appropriate moment to evaluate these types of policies in three singular Spanish…

  16. Analysis of Ethiopia's national ICT policy and strategy: insights into ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The trend shows that the national ICT policy need to focus broadly on core and emerging issues that are crucial for ICT ecosystem such as infrastructure, services, applications, universal access, cyber security, social media, and users. Broadband infrastructure development is considered as key intervention in the policy.

  17. Critical analysis of the policy practice of mathematics education in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ensuring a smooth mathematics education programme requires the formulation and implementation of appropriate instructional policies. This study is a survey of some practices of the instructional policies and their influence on mathematics education. Completed Basic School Annual Census (CBSAC) forms and ...

  18. Analysis of National Policies for Entrepreneurship Education in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaozhou

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews major national policies and strategies adopted by the Chinese central government to promote entrepreneurship education and also describes the current social and economic background to reveal the motives of entrepreneurship education in mainland China. The core of this article sums up the content of national policies on…

  19. Economic analysis of water conservation policies in the Texas Panhandle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Due to declining water availability from the Ogallala Aquifer, management policy alternatives for extending the life of the aquifer to sustain rural economies in the Texas Panhandle are evaluated. The study concludes that water conservation policies for the region significantly impact crop mix, reso...

  20. Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) will support quality research, capacity development, and policy engagement, with a focus on inclusive growth in low-income developing countries. It will generate new knowledge and evidence relevant to the creation of jobs, productive employment for young people, ...

  1. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  2. Early Educational Provision--Emphasised in Education Policy Reforms in Norway? An Analysis of Education Policy Documents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnsrud, Halvor; Nilsen, Sven

    2014-01-01

    The article analyses how the intentions of early provision in Norwegian schools have been expressed in the education policy reforms in Norway from the 1970s to the present day. The first area deals with the intentions that most explicitly cover early provision; prevention, early detection and intervention. The second area of analysis relates to…

  3. Digital Aquifer - Integrating modeling, technical, software and policy aspects to develop a groundwater management tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirupathi, S.; McKenna, S. A.; Fleming, K.; Wambua, M.; Waweru, P.; Ondula, E.

    2016-12-01

    Groundwater management has traditionally been observed as a study for long term policy measures to ensure that the water resource is sustainable. IBM Research, in association with the World Bank, extended this traditional analysis to include realtime groundwater management by building a context-aware, water rights management and permitting system. As part of this effort, one of the primary objectives was to develop a groundwater flow model that can help the policy makers with a visual overview of the current groundwater distribution. In addition, the system helps the policy makers simulate a range of scenarios and check the sustainability of the groundwater resource in a given region. The system also enables a license provider to check the effect of the introduction of a new well on the existing wells in the domain as well as the groundwater resource in general. This process simplifies how an engineer will determine if a new well should be approved. Distance to the nearest well neighbors and the maximum decreases in water levels of nearby wells are continually assessed and presented as evidence for an engineer to make the final judgment on approving the permit. The system also facilitates updated insights on the amount of groundwater left in an area and provides advice on how water fees should be structured to balance conservation and economic development goals. In this talk, we will discuss the concept of Digital Aquifer, the challenges in integrating modeling, technical and software aspects to develop a management system that helps policy makers and license providers with a robust decision making tool. We will concentrate on the groundwater model developed using the analytic element method that plays a very important role in the decision making aspects. Finally, the efficiency of this system and methodology is shown through a case study in Laguna Province, Philippines, which was done in collaboration with the National Water Resource Board, Philippines and World

  4. OPTIMAL TRAINING POLICY FOR PROMOTION - STOCHASTIC MODELS OF MANPOWER SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.S.S. Yadavalli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the optimal planning of manpower training programmes in a manpower system with two grades is discussed. The planning of manpower training within a given organization involves a trade-off between training costs and expected return. These planning problems are examined through models that reflect the random nature of manpower movement in two grades. To be specific, the system consists of two grades, grade 1 and grade 2. Any number of persons in grade 2 can be sent for training and after the completion of training, they will stay in grade 2 and will be given promotion as and when vacancies arise in grade 1. Vacancies arise in grade 1 only by wastage. A person in grade 1 can leave the system with probability p. Vacancies are filled with persons in grade 2 who have completed the training. It is assumed that there is a perfect passing rate and that the sizes of both grades are fixed. Assuming that the planning horizon is finite and is T, the underlying stochastic process is identified as a finite state Markov chain and using dynamic programming, a policy is evolved to determine how many persons should be sent for training at any time k so as to minimize the total expected cost for the entire planning period T.

  5. Economic analysis of Brazilian policies for energy efficient electric motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Cássio Tersandro de Castro; Pontes, Ricardo Silva Thé

    2017-01-01

    Brazil is leading several energy efficiency initiatives and has ambitious goals for 2030, according to the Brazilian National Energy Plan 2030. One of the main initiatives is the minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) program for energy-driven equipment and the electric motors appear as the most significant one (49% share of the total electricity consumption). The MEPS levels set new grades for efficiency, and then manufacturers and consumers have to conform to the new products and costs. Policy makers have to economically assess the effects of these MEPS in order to maintain the market stability. Since the benefits of this program come from future energy savings, this cost-effective analysis has to consider the parameters uncertainty and the results should reinforce the market players’ confidence. Thus, the goal of this work is, first, to analyze the economic viability of the MEPS transitions in Brazil considering the uncertainty of the parameters involved and then, to estimate the effects of this program on the energy savings goals for 2030. At the end, we also verify whether this investment in energy efficiency is competitive with other forms of investments in energy. - Highlights: • A cost-effectiveness method with uncertainty for efficiency program is presented. • Savings from electric motors MEPS program makes the 2030 Brazilian goals possible. • Electric motors MEPS program cost-effectiveness in Brazil is confirmed. • Saved energy cost from efficiency improvement is a competitive energy investment.

  6. Analysis of energy end-use efficiency policy in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collado, Rocío Román; Díaz, María Teresa Sanz

    2017-01-01

    The implementation of saving measures and energy efficiency entails the need to evaluate achievements in terms of energy saving and spending. This paper aims at analysing the effectiveness and economic efficiency of energy saving measures implemented in the Energy Savings and Efficiency Action Plan (2008–2012) (EAP4+) in Spain for 2010. The lack of assessment related to energy savings achieved and public spending allocated by the EAP4+ justifies the need of this analysis. The results show that the transport and building sectors seem to be the most important, from the energy efficiency perspective. Although they did not reach the direct energy savings that were expected, there is scope for reduction with the appropriate energy measures. For the effectiveness indicator, the best performance are achieved by public service, agricultural and fisheries and building sectors, while in terms of energy efficiency per monetary unit, the best results are achieved by transport, industry and agriculture sectors. Authors conclude that it is necessary that central, regional and local administrations will get involved, in order to get better estimates of the energy savings achieved and thus to affect the design of future energy efficiency measures at the lowest possible cost to the citizens. - Highlights: • Energy end-use efficiency policy is analysed in terms of energy savings and spending. • The energy savings achieved by some measures are not always provided. • The total energy savings achieved by transport and building sectors are large. • Different levels of administration should get involved in estimating energy savings.

  7. Analysis of National and EU Policies Supporting CSR and Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moon, Jeremy; Slager, Rieneke; Anastasiadis, Stephanos

    The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the place of governmental policies in encouraging and supporting Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and their effectiveness therein. By: Moon, Jeremy - Slager, Rieneke - Brunn, Christoph - Hardi, Peter - Steen Knudsen, Jette - 2012 The very...... but it is also increasingly explicit in government policies (Matten and Moon 2008). In other words, it is not simply that government policies structure the environment in which companies choose to behave responsibly or otherwise, but also that policies are precisely designed to encourage such behaviour...... society organizations); to mandate (e.g. for accounting or reporting standards). However, the trajectories between and combinations of these policy types also vary among countries (see below). Collectively they tend to reflect broader trends in new governance which stress participation, networks...

  8. Analysis of nuclear issue and development of policy alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Won, Byungchool; Lee, Youngjoon; Yun, Sungwon; Yun, Keehwan; Ko, Wonil

    2012-08-01

    ? Promoted amicably passing a resolution on a general meeting of Atomic Energy Promotion Commission through the preliminary review and opinion gathering ? Mutual understanding and forming a social consensus on nuclear related issues through R and D reporting about the SMART, Decommission and Dis, Future Nuclear System etc Ο Promoted strengthening the work related to the nuclear policy through discovering the 8 policy initiatives prioritized Ο Analyzed the policy process as well as previous research results related to spent fuel for establishment of spent-fuel policy and presented the methods for legislation Ο Suggested the establishment and multi-step implementation strategies of 'Nuclear educational hurb center' Ο Germany, Switzerland, Belgium returned to their former phase-out strategies, except for these three countries, did not change nuclear promotion policies Ο Democratic United Party is currently taking the opposite stance on NPP but it is necessary to make an effort to analyze current domestic energy circumstances on objective and rational grounds

  9. Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS). An international appliance efficiency policy tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, M.A.; Letschert, V.E.; De la Rue du Can, S.; Ke, Jing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-02-15

    The Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) calculates potential energy and greenhouse gas emission impacts of efficiency policies for lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, appliances, and industrial equipment through 2030. The model includes 16 end use categories and covers 11 individual countries plus the European Union. BUENAS is a bottom-up stock accounting model that predicts energy consumption for each type of equipment in each country according to engineering-based estimates of annual unit energy consumption, scaled by projections of equipment stock. Energy demand in each scenario is determined by equipment stock, usage, intensity, and efficiency. When available, BUENAS uses sales forecasts taken from country studies to project equipment stock. Otherwise, BUENAS uses an econometric model of household appliance uptake developed by the authors. Once the business as usual scenario is established, a high-efficiency policy scenario is constructed that includes an improvement in the efficiency of equipment installed in 2015 or later. Policy case efficiency targets represent current 'best practice' and include standards already established in a major economy or well-defined levels known to enjoy a significant market share in a major economy. BUENAS calculates energy savings according to the difference in energy demand in the two scenarios. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation is then calculated using a forecast of electricity carbon factor. We find that mitigation of 1075 mt annual CO2 emissions is possible by 2030 from adopting current best practices of appliance efficiency policies. This represents a 17 % reduction in emissions in the business as usual case in that year.

  10. Security policy analysis in network-attached optical disk storage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun; Xie, Changsheng; Huang, Hao

    2005-09-01

    The network-attached optical disk storage system has the advantages of the network-attached storage system and the optical storage device. Due to the data reliability and the removability of the storage medium, this optical storage system is very effective on massive data providing and backup. Recently, achievements have been made in security models and policies in a distributed network system environment and the network-attached storage system environment. However, the relevant research is not enough in the network-attached optical disk storage system, especially in a network-attached optical disc device. So it is significant to analyze the security policy and setup a good security model for the network-attached optical disk storage system. This paper makes a theoretical analysis on the security policy in the network-attached optical disk storage system. Firstly, the difference of the network-attached optical disk storage system and the distributed network system environment is presented. The network-attached optical disk storage system is a special distributed network system, and to meet the requirements of the system security, we use the authentication and key exchange protocol method to decide who is authorized to have what access rights on which objects with respect to some security models and policies in compute system. Secondly, we compare the effect of several types of authentication and key distribution protocols in a distributed network system environment. Then we port these authentication and key exchange protocols on the network-attached optical disk storage system environment. Based on these analyses, this paper proposes a secure key management scheme for security services in the network-attached optical disk storage system over open networks. This scheme focuses on the framework for authentication and the centralized key management, and future work will focus on dynamic membership management.

  11. A critical analysis of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services policy in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Jane Em; Fellin, Lisa Chiara; Warner-Gale, Fiona

    2017-01-01

    Policy on Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in England has undergone radical changes in the last 15 years, with far reaching implications for funding models, access to services and service delivery. Using corpus analysis and critical discourse analysis, we explore how childhood, mental health and CAMHS are constituted in 15 policy documents, 9 pre-2010 and 6 post-2010. We trace how these constructions have changed over time and consider the practice implications of these changes. We identify how children's distress is individualised, through medicalising discourses and shifting understandings of the relationship between socio-economic context and mental health. This is evidenced in a shift from seeing children's mental health challenges as produced by social and economic inequities to a view that children's mental health must be addressed early to prevent future socio-economic burden. We consider the implications of CAMHS policies for the relationship between children, families, mental health services and the state. The article concludes by exploring how concepts of 'parity of esteem' and 'stigma reduction' may inadvertently exacerbate the individualisation of children's mental health.

  12. An Empirical Analysis of Payout Policy and Option Expensing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogelio J. Cardona

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The increased use of stock options as a compensation component and the subsequent failure of firms where their use was prevalent forced both Congress and the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB to enact new legislation and regulations in 2002. Among other things, the new legislation required corporations to disclose more information on their financial statements and initially to recognize voluntarily stock option grants as an expense on their financial statements. In 2004 option expensing became mandatory. This investigation uses Tobit regression models to examine whether there is a change in the payout policy (use a firm’s cash to pay dividends to its stockholders or to repurchase outstanding shares from its shareholders in a group of firms after announcing their voluntary decision to expense their stock options. The expected increases in the payment of dividends or share repurchases did not occur. Firms seem to have reacted to the required option expensing with other changes in their equity compensation plans such as accelerating the vesting of its options or by modifying the terms of its option grants.

  13. National University Extension Policy: analysis of the experience of the Institute of Health Sciences of UFPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durbens Martins Nascimento

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The current study purpose refers to the university extension, addressing the concepts of university, organization, knowledge andextension. We sought to answer the following question: Does the outcome that has been generated through projects on extension practices developed by ICS/UFPA actually fulfill the guidelines of the National University Extension Policy? The pursued objective consisted in a general analysisof the extension practices of the Institute of Health Sciences (ICS at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA in the light of the National University Extension Policy (NUEP, comprehending dialogical interaction, interdisciplinary and interprofessionalism, teaching-research-extension inseparability, impact on student training, and impact and social transformation envisaged within the Policy Extension of UFPA. The research methodology comprehended a quantitative and qualitative approach supported by bibliographic and documentary supply. It was consulted the collection of various documents, given more evidence to those focused on the university extension in 2012, contained into several instances of UFPA. A number of 80 projects and 60 reports of extension of ICS were selected for analysis in the year 2012. The results revealed that the guidelines of PNEU fell far short of being reached by the ICS products, when it came to interdisciplinarity and interprofessionalism, teaching-research-extension inseparability, and impact and social transformation. Furthermore, there was little participation by teachers, students and administrative technicians of ICS in such activity. It was concluded that the extension model of ICS consists is a welfare model, developed through service provision.

  14. Applying Critical Discourse Analysis in Health Policy Research: Case Studies in Regional, Organizational, and Global Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans-Agnew, Robin A; Johnson, Susan; Liu, Fuqin; Boutain, Doris M

    2016-08-01

    Critical discourse analysis (CDA) is a promising methodology for policy research in nursing. As a critical theoretical methodology, researchers use CDA to analyze social practices and language use in policies to examine whether such policies may promote or impede social transformation. Despite the widespread use of CDA in other disciplines such as education and sociology, nursing policy research employing CDA methodology is sparse. To advance CDA use in nursing science, it is important to outline the overall research strategies and describe the steps of CDA in policy research. This article describes, using exemplar case studies, how nursing and health policy researchers can employ CDA as a methodology. Three case studies are provided to discuss the application of CDA research methodologies in nursing policy research: (a) implementation of preconception care policies in the Zhejiang province of China, (b) formation and enactment of statewide asthma policy in Washington state of the United States, and (c) organizational implementation of employee antibullying policies in hospital systems in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Each exemplar details how CDA guided the examination of policy within specific contexts and social practices. The variations of the CDA approaches in the three exemplars demonstrated the flexibilities and potentials for conducting policy research grounded in CDA. CDA provides novel insights for nurse researchers examining health policy formation, enactment, and implementation. © The Author(s) 2016.

  15. From demonstration to deployment: An economic analysis of support policies for carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krahé, Max; Heidug, Wolf; Ward, John; Smale, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This paper argues that an integrated policy architecture consisting of multiple policy phases and economic instruments is needed to support the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) from its present demonstration phase to full-scale deployment. Building on an analysis of the different types of policy instruments to correct market failures specific to CCS in its various stages of development, we suggest a way to combine these into an integrated policy architecture. This policy architecture adapts to the need of a maturing technology, meets the requirement of policymakers to maintain flexibility to respond to changing circumstances while providing investors with the policy certainty that is needed to encourage private sector investment. This combination of flexibility and predictability is achieved through the use of ‘policy gateways’ which explicitly define rules and criteria for when and how policy settings will change. Our findings extend to bioenergy-based CCS applications (BECCS), which could potentially achieve negative emissions. We argue that within a framework of correcting the carbon externality, the added environmental benefits of BECCS should be reflected in an extra incentive. - Highlights: • Sensible aim of current climate policy: secure option of future CCS deployment. • But policy makers require flexibility while private investors require predictability. • Integrating CCS policy into an overall policy architecture can overcome this antinomy. • We describe the key features of a good policy architecture and give an example

  16. Making residential cannabis growing operations actionable: a critical policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Connie

    2009-07-01

    In 2006, the British Columbia (BC) government passed amendments to its Safety Standards Act. These amendments permit the routine disclosure of electrical usage information from electrical producers to BC's municipalities, ostensibly to identify and eradicate residential cannabis growing operations (grow ops). These amendments originated in a pilot project in Surrey, BC, known as the electrical and fire safety inspection initiative (EFSI), which drew together police, firefighters and others, to identify grow ops through the process of municipal electrical inspections. This paper draws on narrative analysis to critically explore how the report of the EFSI Surrey pilot project uses a series of linked claims to generate interpretative change in the definition of the problem of grow ops. This analysis also shows how claims about grow ops are constructed and gain their potency through links with other social problems, persons, and practices. Though the report of the EFSI project is a prohibitionist text replete with stock characters and themes from the history of Canadian drug policy, the problem of residential cannabis cultivation is made actionable by establishing grow operators as "superdeviants" constructed both as dangerous outsiders and as risks to a host of public safety concerns. These claims are then linked to the notion of an overwhelmed criminal justice system that establishes a "crisis" that justifies extraordinary methods of social control outside the due process of the criminal justice system. Construction of all cannabis cultivators as "dangerous" disavows other possibilities and shores up neo-liberal practices of government that draw on multi-partner initiatives to implement extraordinary methods of social control not necessarily subject to public accountability.

  17. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  18. Analysis of maternal and child health policies in Malawi: The methodological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daire, J; Khalil, D

    2015-12-01

    The question of why most health policies do not achieve their intended results continues to receive a considerable attention in the literature. This is in the light of the recognized gap between policy as intent and policy as practice, which calls for substantial research work to understand the factors that improve policy implementation. Although there is substantial work that explains the reasons why policies achieve or fail to achieve their intended outcomes, there are limited case studies that illustrate how to analyze policies from the methodological perspective. In this article, we report and discuss how a mixed qualitative research method was applied for analyzing maternal and child health policies in Malawi. For the purposes of this article, we do not report research findings; instead we focus our dicussion on the methodology of the study and draw lessons for policy analysis research work. We base our disusssion on our experiences from a study in which we analyzed maternal and child health policies in Malawi over the period from 1964 to 2008. Noting the multifaceted nature of maternal and child health policies, we adopted a mixed qualitative research method, whereby a number of data collection methods were employed. This approach allowed for the capturing of different perspectives of maternal and child health policies in Malawi and for strengthening of the weaknesses of each method, especially in terms of data validity. This research suggested that the multidimensional nature of maternal and child health policies, like other health policies, calls for a combination of research designs as well as a variety of methods of data collection and analysis. In addition, we suggest that, as an emerging research field, health policy analysis will benefit more from case study designs because they provide rich experiences in the actual policy context.

  19. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  20. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-15

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  1. Evaluation of realised energy savings with simulation models. A new policy tool for the Netherlands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    2013-01-15

    This report describes a new analysis tool for the evaluation of realised energy savings, and effects of savings policy, in the Netherlands. It aims to meet the information needs of policymakers, both at national and EU level, using the monitoring results of the NL Agency. The system builds on the Protocol Monitoring Energy Savings to calculate realised savings. The innovation consists of the option to adjust energy models per sector, as already used for scenario analysis, to simulate past developments. The simulations can estimate total savings and assess the contribution of policy measures. The detailed simulation approach also enables the decomposition of energy trends into volume-effects due to growth, structural effects such as fuel substitution and import/exports, and various saving effects. As the modeling system is already used for the analysis of future trends, it enables a good comparison between ex-ante (expected) savings and ex-post (realised) savings. Finally, the system enables a faster delivery of calculation results than presently is the case.

  2. Policy impacts estimates are sensitive to data selection in empirical analysis: evidence from the United States – Canada softwood lumber trade dispute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daowei Zhang; Rajan Parajuli

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we use the U.S. softwood lumber import demand model as a case study to show that the effects of past trade policies are sensitive to the data sample used in empirical analyses.  We conclude that, to be consistent with the purpose of analysis of policy and to ensure all else being equal, policy impacts can only be judged by using data up to the time when...

  3. Melanoma screening: Informing public health policy with quantitative modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Gilmore

    1982 has resulted in greater diagnostic incidence and reduced mortality, but the reduced mortality carried a significant cost per life saved. I implement the model out to 2028 and demonstrate that the enhanced secondary prevention that began in 1982 becomes increasingly cost-effective over the period 2013-2028. On the other hand, I show that reductions in mortality achieved by significantly enhancing secondary prevention beyond 2013 levels are comparable with those achieved by only modest improvements in late-stage disease survival. Given the ballooning costs of increased melanoma surveillance, I suggest the process of public health policy decision-making-particularly with respect to the public funding of melanoma screening and discretionary mole removal-would be better served by incorporating the results of quantitative modelling.

  4. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-16

    State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

  5. Analysis of Carbon Policies for Electricity Networks with High Penetration of Green Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feijoo, Felipe A.

    In recent decades, climate change has become one of the most crucial challenges for humanity. Climate change has a direct correlation with global warming, caused mainly by the green house gas emissions (GHG). The Environmental Protection Agency in the U.S. (EPA) attributes carbon dioxide to account for approximately 82% of the GHG emissions. Unfortunately, the energy sector is the main producer of carbon dioxide, with China and the U.S. as the highest emitters. Therefore, there is a strong (positive) correlation between energy production, global warming, and climate change. Stringent carbon emissions reduction targets have been established in order to reduce the impacts of GHG. Achieving these emissions reduction goals will require implementation of policies like as cap-and-trade and carbon taxes, together with transformation of the electricity grid into a smarter system with high green energy penetration. However, the consideration of policies solely in view of carbon emissions reduction may adversely impact other market outcomes such as electricity prices and consumption. In this dissertation, a two-layer mathematical-statistical framework is presented, that serves to develop carbon policies to reduce emissions level while minimizing the negative impacts on other market outcomes. The bottom layer of the two layer model comprises a bi-level optimization problem. The top layer comprises a statistical model and a Pareto analysis. Two related but different problems are studied under this methodology. The first problem looks into the design of cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity markets that satisfy the interest of different market constituents. Via the second problem, it is demonstrated how the framework can be used to obtain levels of carbon emissions reduction while minimizing the negative impact on electricity demand and maximizing green penetration from microgrids. In the aforementioned studies, forecasts for electricity prices and production cost

  6. Analysis of Public Policies for Sexuality Education in Germany and The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronowitz, Teri; Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of the philosophical, historical, sociological, political, and economic perspectives reflected in the public policies about lifespan sexuality education of Germany and The Netherlands. A new conceptual framework for analysis and evaluation of sexuality education policies that integrates the…

  7. On-Line Booking Policies and Competitive Analysis of Medical Examination in Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available From the on-line point, we consider the hospital’s medical examination appointment problem with hierarchical machines. This approach eliminates the need for both demand forecasts and a risk-neutrality assumption. Due to different unit revenue, uncertain demand, and arrival of patients, we design on-line booking policies for two kinds of different situations from the perspective of on-line policy and competitive analysis. After that, we prove the optimal competitive ratios. Through numerical examples, we compare advantages and disadvantages between on-line policies and traditional policies, finding that there is different superiority for these two policies under different arrival sequences.

  8. Perceptions of Alcohol Policy and Drinking Behavior: Results of a Latent Class Analysis of College Student Drinkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buettner, Cynthia K.; Bartle-Haring, Suzanne; Andrews, David W.; Khurana, Atika

    2010-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this study was to extend the limited research on college student support for alcohol control policies by using a latent class analysis to examine the shared characteristics of drinking students who support or oppose such policies. Methods We used data from a sample of 2393 students drawn from a larger study on high risk drinking at a mid-western university. Data was collected between October 2005 and May 2007. We conducted a latent class analysis to identify sub-groups of drinking students based on relevant variables. Results The results of the latent class analysis yielded a model which could correctly classify 90% of the students taking the survey into one of four “classes” based upon their response to four items on the questionnaire. Conclusions Interventions would benefit from approaches that target both student perceptions and specific policies that are most conducive to student support and engagement. PMID:20153587

  9. Simulation modeling of policies directed at youth sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David T; Friend, Karen B

    2013-03-01

    Childhood obesity is a significant public health problem requiring innovative solutions. While recent reviews indicate that some policies show promise, there is a lack of information regarding which policies, and policy combinations, work best. Low-nutrition, energy-dense foods and beverages such as sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been identified as a major contributor to the problem. The purpose of this paper is to use simulation modeling to show how changes in three categories of SSB policies-school nutrition, school-based education, and taxes-impact SSB and other food consumption. The model shows that policies directed at SSBs, particularly tax hikes, could lead to substantial reductions in the number of calories consumed by youth. The estimates, however, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Estimates from school-based nutrition and school-based education policies, while also helping to reduce caloric intake, generally show smaller effects than tax policies and considerable variation around parameter estimates for individual and combined policies. We conclude with a discussion of the limits of the model, and suggest where additional information is needed. Limitations notwithstanding, simulation modeling is a promising methodology that can help advance our understanding of policy effects, thereby helping policymakers to better formulate effective policies to reduce obesity prevalence and the associated social harms.

  10. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Yan [International Department, Chinese Business Law Firm, 20E, Building 2, International Friendship Garden, Zuojiazhuang A2, Chaoyang District 100028 (China)]. E-mail: yanjun9@yahoo.com.cn

    2006-07-15

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewable s, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development.

  11. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yan [International Department, Chinese Business Law Firm, 20E, Building 2, International Friendship Garden, Zuojiazhuang A2, Chaoyang District 100028 (China)

    2006-07-15

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewables, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development. (author)

  12. Renewable electricity in Sweden: an analysis of policy and regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in Sweden. It assesses the energy policy context, changes in the choice of policy instruments, and provides explanations behind policy successes and failures. Swedish renewable energy policy has been developing in a context of uncertainty around nuclear issues. While there has been made a political decision to replace nuclear power with renewable s, there is a lack of consensus about the pace of phasing out nuclear power due to perceived negative impacts on industrial competitiveness. Such uncertainty had an effect in the formulation of renewable energy policy. Biomass and wind power are the main options for renewable electricity production. Throughout 1990s, the combined effect of different policy instruments has stimulated the growth of these two renewable sources. Yet, both biomass and wind power are still a minor contributor in the total electricity generation. Lack of strong government commitment due to uncertainty around nuclear issues is a crucial factor. Short-term subsidies have been preferred rather than open-ended subsidy mechanisms, causing intervals without subsidies and interruption to development. Other factors are such as lack of incentives from the major electricity companies and administrative obstacles. The taxation system has been successful in fostering an expansion of biomass for heating but hindered a similar development in the electricity sector. The quota system adopted in 2003 is expected to create high demand on biomass but does not favour wind power. The renewable energy aims are unlikely to be changed. Yet, the future development of renewable energy policies especially for high-cost technologies will again depend strongly on nuclear policies, which are still unstable and might affect the pace of renewable energy development

  13. A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

    A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

  14. A REGIONAL MODELING STRUCTURE FOR ASSESSING MANURE MANAGEMENT POLICIES: APPLICATION TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED

    OpenAIRE

    Aillery, Marcel P.; Gollehon, Noel R.; Ribaudo, Marc; Breneman, Vincent E.

    2001-01-01

    A modeling framework addresses manure management policies within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Policy focus is on manure-land application at agronomic rates, as proposed under the EPA/USDA Unified Strategy. Manure-nutrient flows are assessed subject to assimilative capacity of farmland. National data bases and GIS coverages facilitate model transferability to other watersheds.

  15. Contested Spaces in Policy Enactment: A Bourdieusian Analysis of Language Policy in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokhorst-Heng, Wendy D.; Silver, Rita Elaine

    2017-01-01

    The basic structure and rhetoric of national language policy in multilingual Singapore has remained essentially unchanged since independence with four official languages positioned within the national quadrilingual framework and used in all public spheres, and individual bilingualism encouraged in the private sphere. However, also since…

  16. The Appreciative System of Urban ICT Policies: An Analysis of Perceptions of Urban Policy Makers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen-Blankshtain, G.; Nijkamp, P.

    2004-01-01

    Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become an important tool to promote a variety of public goals and policies. In the past years much attention has been given to the expected social benefits from deploying ICTs in different urban fields (transportation, education, public

  17. Youth policy and participation: An analysis of pedagogical ideals in municipal youth policy in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, Greetje

    Over the past two decades, in several Northern and Western European Union countries responsibility for general youth policy has been transferred from the central government to the local level of municipalities. In this transformation process the local authorities. guided by central government's

  18. Comparative analysis of Canadian multiculturalism policy and the multiculturalism policies of other countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berry, John

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Multiculturalism is an increasingly common characteristic of contemporary societies. In culturally diverse social contexts, virtually every person experiences intercultural contact on a daily basis. It is essential to understand that there must be both cultural diversity and equity in social participation for true multiculturalism to exist in these settings. Beyond its core definition, it is clear that multiculturalism is a complex concept encompassing many dimensions and meanings. First, the term is understood to describe a demographic fact, indicating the existence of cultural diversity in a society. Second, multiculturalism refers to the policies and programs that are in place to manage intercultural relations and acculturation. Third, multiculturalism refers to psychological phenomena, including individual attitudes and ideologies that accept or reject the demographic, civic and policy features of multiculturalism. This chapter considers Canadian multiculturalism policy, examining how the multiple meanings of multiculturalism vary around the world. Within this framework, I highlight the psychological processes and outcomes of multiculturalism, particularly in connection with acculturation, adaptation and intercultural relations and consider whether these processes and outcomes differ for dominant and non-dominant groups. I suggest some ways in which to enhance the positive outcomes of intercultural contact and the resultant acculturation outcomes. Finally, this chapter sets the stage for the presentation of the other chapters in this volume. It elaborates three hypotheses derived from Canadian multiculturalism policy: the multiculturalism, integration and contact hypotheses.

  19. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, B.; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  20. Parsing pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: forensic chemistry, receptor models, and source control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Kirk T; Pietari, Jaana; Boehm, Paul D

    2014-04-01

    A realistic understanding of contaminant sources is required to set appropriate control policy. Forensic chemical methods can be powerful tools in source characterization and identification, but they require a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach. Atmospheric receptor models, such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)'s chemical mass balance (CMB), are increasingly being used to evaluate sources of pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments. This paper describes the assumptions underlying receptor models and discusses challenges in complying with these assumptions in practice. Given the variability within, and the similarity among, pyrogenic PAH source types, model outputs are sensitive to specific inputs, and parsing among some source types may not be possible. Although still useful for identifying potential sources, the technical specialist applying these methods must describe both the results and their inherent uncertainties in a way that is understandable to nontechnical policy makers. The authors present an example case study concerning an investigation of a class of parking-lot sealers as a significant source of PAHs in urban sediment. Principal component analysis is used to evaluate published CMB model inputs and outputs. Targeted analyses of 2 areas where bans have been implemented are included. The results do not support the claim that parking-lot sealers are a significant source of PAHs in urban sediments. © 2013 SETAC.

  1. Family Resilience in the Military: Definitions, Models, and Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Chartrand et al., 2008; Lester et al., 2010; Lincoln and Sweeten , 2011; Chandra et al., 2010; Chandra et al., 2011; Gibbs et al., 2008). Despite...for definitions of family resilience. Of these, 29 presented at least one definition with original content (i.e., a new definition or one building on...policies: (1) policies about programs that originally had different purposes, such as youth programs, which are then modified to address resilience or

  2. Kosovo: Review and Analysis of Policy Objectives, 1998-June 1999

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kim, Julie

    1999-01-01

    This report provides an overview of U.S. and international policy objectives in Kosovo from 1998 to mid-1999, when NATO ended an 11-week air strike operation against Yugoslavia and began to deploy a U.N...

  3. Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2016-12-01

    Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with

  4. An Analysis of Cyberbullying Policies In Virginia Public School Districts

    OpenAIRE

    Poole, G. Wesley

    2010-01-01

    Wes Poole Abstract The study examines the acceptable computer system use policies of each of the public school districts in the Commonwealth of Virginia, as well as the Virginia School Boards Association and the National School Boards Association policies as they relate to cyberbullying. Public middle school and public secondary school administrators across the Commonwealth were surveyed to determine to what extent cyberbullying is an issue in their schools, and to d...

  5. YOUTH POLICY IN EUROPE AND RUSSIA (THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Alekseev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Young people are the main engine of the processes taking place in the society of any country. The study of these processes is an important task of modern political science. The youth make up about a third of the population of Russia. The current viability and future of the country depends on how the problems of Russian youth are resolved. The demand for research is also dictated by the fact that from the perspective of the perspective, youth policy should be oriented towards receptivity to innovations and modernization of society, since this state policy in Russia does not have sufficient traditions and experience of effective functioning. The relevance of the topic of the article is determined by the constant problems of youth and the formation and implementation of youth policy. Now it is important to explore the political life of young people in modern conditions, to determine its content and forms, to compare the experience of the political life of the youth of Russia and other countries, to reveal the determinants of political youth activity; To analyze current trends in youth policy, to uncover trends and show perspectives and to suggest ways to improve it. The topic is in demand, and due to the fact that political life presupposes the participation of the population in various mass movements, socio-political organizations, mass actions, elections. This problem is especially acute for young people, who acquire "political maturity" by becoming voters. As youth policy is written a lot of research, which in varying degrees are considered the problems of youth. Experience of formation and development of youth policy in Europe is one of indicative examples for many countries of the world. Now the youth policy is allocated as the separate direction of state policy, and also institutes of civil society. 

  6. Analysis of Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavik Stefan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The term business model has been used in practice for few years, but companies create, define and innovate their models subconsciously from the start of business. Our paper is aimed to clear the theory about business model, hence definition and all the components that form each business. In the second part, we create an analytical tool and analyze the real business models in Slovakia and define the characteristics of each part of business model, i.e., customers, distribution, value, resources, activities, cost and revenue. In the last part of our paper, we discuss the most used characteristics, extremes, discrepancies and the most important facts which were detected in our research.

  7. Energy policy and externalities: the life cycle analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virdis, M.R.

    2002-01-01

    In the energy sector, getting the prices right is a prerequisite for market mechanisms to work effectively towards sustainable development. However, energy production and use creates 'costs' external to traditional accounting practices, such as damages to human health and the environment resulting from residual emissions or risks associated with dependence on foreign suppliers. Energy market prices do not fully reflect those external costs. For example, the costs of climate change are not internalized and, therefore, consumers do not get the right price signals leading them to make choices that are optimised from a societal viewpoint. Economic theory has developed approaches to assessing and internalizing external costs that can be applied to the energy sector and, in principle, provide means to quantify and integrate relevant information in a comprehensive framework. The tools developed for addressing these issues are generally aimed at monetary valuation of impacts and damages and integration of the valued 'external costs' in total cost of the product, e.g. electricity. The approach of Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) provides a conceptual framework for a detailed and comprehensive comparative evaluation of energy supply options. This paper offers a summary of the LCA methodology and an overview of some of its limitations. It then illustrates, through a few examples, how the methodology can be used to inform or correct policy making and to orient investment decisions. Difficulties and issues emerging at various stages in the application and use of LCA results are discussed, although in such a short note, it is impossible to address all issues related to LCA. Therefore, as part of the concluding section, some issues are left open - and areas in which further analytical work may be needed are described. (author)

  8. The Impact of the Introduction of Web Information Systems (WIS) on Information Policies: An Analysis of the Canadian Federal Government Policies Related to WIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufour, Christine; Bergeron, Pierette

    2002-01-01

    Presents results of an analysis of the Canadian federal government information policies that govern its Web information systems (WIS) that was conducted to better understand how the government has adapted its information policies to the WIS. Discusses results that indicate new policies have been crafted to take into account the WIS context.…

  9. Qualitative analysis of the dynamics of policy design and implementation in hospital funding reform.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen S Palmer

    Full Text Available As in many health care systems, some Canadian jurisdictions have begun shifting away from global hospital budgets. Payment for episodes of care has begun to be implemented. Starting in 2012, the Province of Ontario implemented hospital funding reforms comprising three elements: Global Budgets; Health Based Allocation Method (HBAM; and Quality-Based Procedures (QBP. This evaluation focuses on implementation of QBPs, a procedure/diagnosis-specific funding approach involving a pre-set price per episode of care coupled with best practice clinical pathways. We examined whether or not there was consensus in understanding of the program theory underpinning QBPs and how this may have influenced full and effective implementation of this innovative funding model.We undertook a formative evaluation of QBP implementation. We used an embedded case study method and in-depth, one-on-one, semi-structured, telephone interviews with key informants at three levels of the health care system: Designers (those who designed the QBP policy; Adoption Supporters (organizations and individuals supporting adoption of QBPs; and Hospital Implementers (those responsible for QBP implementation in hospitals. Thematic analysis involved an inductive approach, incorporating Framework analysis to generate descriptive and explanatory themes that emerged from the data.Five main findings emerged from our research: (1 Unbeknownst to most key informants, there was neither consistency nor clarity over time among QBP designers in their understanding of the original goal(s for hospital funding reform; (2 Prior to implementation, the intended hospital funding mechanism transitioned from ABF to QBPs, but most key informants were either unaware of the transition or believe it was intentional; (3 Perception of the primary goal(s of the policy reform continues to vary within and across all levels of key informants; (4 Four years into implementation, the QBP funding mechanism remains

  10. Content analysis of euthanasia policies of nursing homes in Flanders (Belgium).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemiengre, Joke; Dierckx de Casterlé, Bernadette; Denier, Yvonne; Schotsmans, Paul; Gastmans, Chris

    2009-08-01

    To describe the form and content of ethics policies on euthanasia in Flemish nursing homes and to determine the possible influence of religious affiliation on policy content. Content analysis of euthanasia policy documents. Of the 737 nursing homes we contacted, 612 (83%) completed and returned the questionnaire. Of 92 (15%) nursing homes that reported to have a euthanasia policy, 85 (92%) provided a copy of their policy. Nursing homes applied the euthanasia law with additional palliative procedures and interdisciplinary deliberations. More Catholic nursing homes compared to non-Catholic nursing homes did not permit euthanasia. Policies described several phases of the euthanasia care process as well as involvement of caregivers, patients, and relatives; ethical issues; support for caregivers; reporting; and procedures for handling advance directives. Our study revealed that euthanasia requests from patients are seriously considered in euthanasia policies of nursing homes, with great attention for palliative care and interdisciplinary cooperation.

  11. An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askari, Hossein; Krichene, Noureddine

    2010-01-01

    Oil price inflation may have had a significant role in pushing the world economy into its worst post-war recession during 2008-2009. Reserve currency central banks pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy during 2001-2009, in the form of low or negative real interest rates and accompanied by a rapidly falling US dollar, while paying inadequate attention to the destabilizing effects on oil markets. In this paper, we show that monetary policy variables, namely key interest rates and the US dollar exchange rate, had a powerful effect on oil markets. World oil demand was significantly influenced by interest and dollar exchange rates, while oil supply was rigid. Oil demand and supply have very low price elasticity and this characteristic makes oil prices highly volatile and subject to wider fluctuations than the prices of other commodities. Aggressive monetary policy would stimulate oil demand, however, it would be met with rigid oil supply and would turn inflationary and disruptive to economic growth if there was little excess capacity in oil output. We argue that a measure of stability in oil markets cannot be achieved unless monetary policy is restrained and real interest rates become significantly positive. Monetary tightening during 1979-1982 might imply that monetary policy has to be restrained for a long period and with high interest rates in order to bring stability back to oil markets. (author)

  12. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

    2015-09-15

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

  13. Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

    2015-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

  14. Pandemic H1N1 in Canada and the use of evidence in developing public health policies--a policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosella, Laura C; Wilson, Kumanan; Crowcroft, Natasha S; Chu, Anna; Upshur, Ross; Willison, Donald; Deeks, Shelley L; Schwartz, Brian; Tustin, Jordan; Sider, Doug; Goel, Vivek

    2013-04-01

    When responding to a novel infectious disease outbreak, policies are set under time constraints and uncertainty which can limit the ability to control the outbreak and result in unintended consequences including lack of public confidence. The H1N1 pandemic highlighted challenges in public health decision-making during a public health emergency. Understanding this process to identify barriers and modifiable influences is important to improve the response to future emergencies. The purpose of this study is to examine the H1N1 pandemic decision-making process in Canada with an emphasis on the use of evidence for public health decisions. Using semi-structured key informant interviews conducted after the pandemic (July-November 2010) and a document analysis, we examined four highly debated pandemic policies: use of adjuvanted vaccine by pregnant women, vaccine priority groups and sequencing, school closures and personal protective equipment. Data were analysed for thematic content guided by Lomas' policy decision-making framework as well as indicative coding using iterative methods. We interviewed 40 public health officials and scientific advisors across Canada and reviewed 76 pandemic policy documents. Our analysis revealed that pandemic pre-planning resulted in strong beliefs, which defined the decision-making process. Existing ideological perspectives of evidence strongly influenced how information was used such that the same evidentiary sources were interpreted differently according to the ideological perspective. Participants recognized that current models for public health decision-making failed to make explicit the roles of scientific evidence in relation to contextual factors. Conflict avoidance theory explained policy decisions that went against the prevailing evidence. Clarification of roles and responsibilities within the public health system would reduce duplication and maintain credibility. A more transparent and iterative approach to incorporating evidence

  15. Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary and Fiscal Polic Coordination Analysis – The Case of Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Vasiljev Tamara Bašić

    2018-01-01

    We present a new-Keynesian model for small open economy, with price rigidities stemming from a Calvo pricing scheme (1983), monopolistic banking system, financial dollarization of the economy and monetary and fiscal policy governed by rules. We estimate the model on Serbian data and propose various model extensions that could be used for monetary and fiscal policy analysis. We consider 6 combinations of monetary and fiscal policy regimes, inflation targeting and currency peg on one hand, and ...

  16. Pedestrian paths: why path-dependence theory leaves health policy analysis lost in space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lawrence D

    2010-08-01

    Path dependence, a model first advanced to explain puzzles in the diffusion of technology, has lately won allegiance among analysts of the politics of public policy, including health care policy. Though the central premise of the model--that past events and decisions shape options for innovation in the present and future--is indisputable (indeed path dependence is, so to speak, too shallow to be false), the approach, at least as applied to health policy, suffers from ambiguities that undercut its claims to illuminate policy projects such as managed care, on which this article focuses. Because path dependence adds little more than marginal value to familiar images of the politics of policy--incrementalism, for one--analysts might do well to put it on the back burner and pursue instead "thick descriptions" that help them to distinguish different degrees of openness to exogenous change among diverse policy arenas.

  17. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  18. Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

    In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

  19. An Analysis of Random Student Drug Testing Policies and Patterns of Practice In Virginia Public Schools

    OpenAIRE

    Lineburg, Mark Young

    2005-01-01

    An Analysis of Random Student Drug Testing Policies and Patterns of Practice In Virginia Public Schools Mark Y. Lineburg Abstract There were two purposes to this study. First, the study was designed to determine which Virginia public school districts have articulated policies that govern random drug testing of students and if school districtsâ policies aligned with U.S. Supreme Court standards and Virginia statutes. The second purpose was to ascertain the patterns of pract...

  20. Energy policy in the Caribbean green economy context and the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) framework as a proposed tool for its development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Kalim U.; Niles, Keron

    2016-01-01

    Market integration efforts of Caribbean small island developing states have become transposed on the growing paradigm shift towards green economy pathways. Central to this is the challenge of implementing Caribbean energy policy in a manner that is aligned with green economy ideals and face the realities of regional indebtedness and environmental impacts. Here we analyze the current state of the Caribbean energy policy development arena and propose that the currently weak policy and institutional design regime might potentially benefit from the application of the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) model especially within the operational context of the green economy. It allows us to identify current policy dilemmas, bottlenecks and discrepancies and to disentangle some of them while offering up a way forward with others. We do not so much offer distinct recommendations but focus more on delineating how to clear the pathway for sound policy intervention and outcomes. By doing so we set forth a challenging agenda for future policy analysis research that will advance Caribbean energy policy in more robust ways. - Highlights: • Un-coordinated Caricom energy policy can benefit from an institutional analysis and design approach. • Policy reform hinges on the patterns of interaction among key actors in the regional context. • Regional policy remains weak across efficiency, equity, accountability and adaptability parameters.

  1. Incorporating operational flexibility into electric generation planning Impacts and methods for system design and policy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmintier, Bryan S.

    This dissertation demonstrates how flexibility in hourly electricity operations can impact long-term planning and analysis for future power systems, particularly those with substantial variable renewables (e.g., wind) or strict carbon policies. Operational flexibility describes a power system's ability to respond to predictable and unexpected changes in generation or demand. Planning and policy models have traditionally not directly captured the technical operating constraints that determine operational flexibility. However, as demonstrated in this dissertation, this capability becomes increasingly important with the greater flexibility required by significant renewables (>= 20%) and the decreased flexibility inherent in some low-carbon generation technologies. Incorporating flexibility can significantly change optimal generation and energy mixes, lower system costs, improve policy impact estimates, and enable system designs capable of meeting strict regulatory targets. Methodologically, this work presents a new clustered formulation that tractably combines a range of normally distinct power system models, from hourly unit-commitment operations to long-term generation planning. This formulation groups similar generators into clusters to reduce problem size, while still retaining the individual unit constraints required to accurately capture operating reserves and other flexibility drivers. In comparisons against traditional unit commitment formulations, errors were generally less than 1% while run times decreased by several orders of magnitude (e.g., 5000x). Extensive numerical simulations, using a realistic Texas-based power system show that ignoring flexibility can underestimate carbon emissions by 50% or result in significant load and wind shedding to meet environmental regulations. Contributions of this dissertation include: 1. Demonstrating that operational flexibility can have an important impact on power system planning, and describing when and how these

  2. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  3. Benchmark risk analysis models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ale BJM; Golbach GAM; Goos D; Ham K; Janssen LAM; Shield SR; LSO

    2002-01-01

    A so-called benchmark exercise was initiated in which the results of five sets of tools available in the Netherlands would be compared. In the benchmark exercise a quantified risk analysis was performed on a -hypothetical- non-existing hazardous establishment located on a randomly chosen location in

  4. Biofuel market and carbon modeling to evaluate French biofuel policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, F.; Prieur, A.

    2006-10-01

    In order to comply with European objectives, France has set up an ambitious biofuel plan. This plan is evaluated considering two criteria: tax exemption need and GHG emission savings. An economic marginal analysis and a life cycle assessment (LCA) are provided using a coupling procedure between a partial agro-industrial equilibrium model and a refining optimization model. Thus, we are able to determine the minimum tax exemption needed to place on the market a targeted quantity of biofuel by deducing the agro-industrial marginal cost of biofuel production to the biofuel refining long-run marginal revenue. In parallel, a biofuels LCA is carried out using model outputs. Such a method avoid common allocation problems between joint products. The French biofuel plan is evaluated for 2008, 2010 and 2012 using prospective scenarios. Results suggest that biofuel competitiveness depends on crude oil prices and petroleum products demands. Consequently, biofuel tax exemption does not always appear to be necessary. LCA results show that biofuels production and use, from 'seed to wheel', would facilitate the French Government's to compliance with its 'Plan Climat' objectives by reducing up to 5% GHG emissions in the French road transport sector by 2010. (authors)

  5. [Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

    2011-03-01

    Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

  6. Child sexual abuse prevention policy: an analysis of Erin's law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Gwendolyn D

    2014-01-01

    Child sexual abuse affects thousands of children in the United States and is vastly underreported. Tertiary prevention policies, primarily in the form of sex offender registries and community notification programs, have received the most attention and funding. Few policies have focused on school-based prevention. One recently passed law in Illinois mandates all K-5 public schools to implement sexual abuse prevention programs. The law was championed by a young social worker, Erin Merryn. Through the multiple streams framework, this article examines the unique set of political circumstances, united with Merryn's advocacy, which created the opportunity for the law to pass.

  7. Analysis and Comparison of Carbon Capture & Sequestration Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, E.; Ezzedine, S. M.; Reed, J.; Beyer, J. H.; Wagoner, J. L.

    2010-12-01

    Several states and countries have adopted or are in the process of crafting policies to enable geologic carbon sequestration projects. These efforts reflect the recognition that existing statutory and regulatory frameworks leave ambiguities or gaps that elevate project risk for private companies considering carbon sequestration projects, and/or are insufficient to address a government’s mandate to protect the public interest. We have compared the various approaches that United States’ state and federal governments have taken to provide regulatory frameworks to address carbon sequestration. A major purpose of our work is to inform the development of any future legislation in California, should it be deemed necessary to meet the goals of Assembly Bill 1925 (2006) to accelerate the adoption of cost-effective geologic sequestration strategies for the long-term management of industrial carbon dioxide in the state. Our analysis shows a diverse issues are covered by adopted and proposed carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) legislation and that many of the new laws focus on defining regulatory frameworks for underground injection of CO2, ambiguities in property issues, or assigning legal liability. While these approaches may enable the progress of early projects, future legislation requires a longer term and broader view that includes a quantified integration of CCS into a government’s overall climate change mitigation strategy while considering potentially counterproductive impacts on CCS of other climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, legislation should be crafted in the context of a vision for CCS as an economically viable and widespread industry. While an important function of new CCS legislation is enabling early projects, it must be kept in mind that applying the same laws or protocols in the future to a widespread CCS industry may result in business disincentives and compromise of the public interest in mitigating GHG emissions. Protection of the

  8. Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atalla, Tarek; Blazquez, Jorge; Hunt, Lester C.; Manzano, Baltasar

    2017-01-01

    Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries' energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA and compares it to Germany and the UK, given the different evolution of the mixes and the different roles played by relative prices and policy in North America and Europe. It is found that the model explains well the evolution of the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA for the period 1980–2014, suggesting that relative fossil fuel prices generally dominated in determining the mix during this time. However, this is not the case for Germany and the UK. For both countries, the model performs well only for the period after the market-oriented reforms in the 1990s. Additionally, the volatility of private consumption and output for the pre- and post-reform periods is evaluated for Germany and the UK and it is found that the liberalized energy markets brought about a transition from coal to natural gas, but with increased macroeconomic volatility. - Highlights: • Macroeconomic analysis of the importance of prices vs policy in driving the primary fossil fuel mix. • USA primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by relative prices since the early 1980s. • Germany and UK primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by policy until 1990s. • Germany and UK primary fossil fuel mix chiefly driven by relative prices since early to mid-1990s. • Transition from coal to natural gas in Germany and UK increased macroeconomic volatility.

  9. Designing Observation and Modeling Systems to Inform Decisions and Policies on Freshwater Objectives in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baisden, W. T.; Ellis, T.; Rissman, C.; Moore, C.; Matthews, A.

    2016-12-01

    Declines in New Zealand's freshwater quality have led to legislation - the 2014 National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management (NPS-FM) - which requires regional governments to set "objectives" and design policies accordingly. In most regions, increases in freshwater contaminants are derived largely from intensifying agriculture and come as nitrogen, phosphorous or sediment, or a combination thereof. Here, the development and application of N and O isotopes as natural tracers for nitrate is examined as a case study, in the context of a wider hierarchy of observations such as N concentrations, flow and broader hydrochemistry used for NPS-FM implementation. The analysis of N and O isotopes in nitrate provides specific information on sources and removal processes that cannot be obtained by other measurements. Yet, despite considerable development of the technical methodology and environment-specific interpretation, application of measurements has faced barriers. Many may be typical of science in a small advanced nation with a population of 4.5 million, but others are unique due to New Zealand's limited rural population base and large diversity in physical geography, as well as a unique economic reliance on highly productive pastoral agricultural systems. Seventeen different regional governments are empowered to regulate in ways consistent with local consultation and democracy within their catchment boundaries, but with limited resources to align highly technical observational data to policies and decisions, as well as supporting models. The resulting gaps in communication and technical capability combine with a diversity of approaches to pose both challenges and opportunities for development and application of hierarchical observation systems. Success appears to lie in ensuring decision frameworks can be `mapped', so that different frameworks can be compared, and the benefits of sophisticated observations understood directly in relation to influence on regional

  10. REGULATORY POLICY AND OPTIMIZATION OF INVESTMENT RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN THE MODEL OF FUNCTIONING OF RECREATION INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Shevchenko

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The research objective is the rationale of the theoretical and methodical approach concerning the improvement of regulatory policy as well as the process of distribution of financial investments using the model of the functioning of a recreational sector of the national economy. The methodology of the study includes the use of optimal control theory for the model formation of the functioning of the recreational industry as well as determining the behaviour of regulatory authorities and capabilities to optimize the allocation of investment resources in the recreational sector of the national economy. Results. The issue of equilibration of regulatory policy in the recreational sector of the national economy is actualized, including the question of targeted distribution of state and external financial investments. Also, it is proved that regulatory policy should establish the frameworks that on the one hand, do not allow public authorities to exercise extra influence on the economy of recreation, on the other hand, to keep the behaviour of the recreational business entities within the limits of normal socio-economic activity – on the basis of analysis of the continuum “recreation – work” by means of modified Brennan-Buchanan model. It is revealed that even with the condition of the tax reduction, the situation when the population resting less and works more than in the background of a developed economy is observed. However, according to the optimistic forecast, eventually on condition when the economy is emerging from the shade, we will obtain an official mode of the work in which, while maintaining taxes on proposed more advantageous for the population level, ultimately the ratio leisure and work will be established which is corresponding to the principles of sustainable development. Practical value. On the basis of methodical principles of the theory of optimal control, the model of the functioning of the recreational industry under the

  11. A Fuzzy Logic Enhanced Environmental Protection Education Model for Policies Decision Support in Green Community Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Lin Hsueh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes the promotion of environmental protection education among communities as a solution to the serious problems of high energy consumption and carbon emissions around the world. Environmental protection education has direct and lasting influences on everyone in society; therefore, it is helpful in our fight against many serious problems caused by high energy consumption. In this study, the Delphi method and the fuzzy logic theory are used to develop a quantizing assessment model based on qualitative analysis. This model can be used to assess the results and influences of community residents’ participation in environmental protection education on green community development. In addition, it can be used to provide references for governing authorities in their decision making of green community development policies.

  12. Models for Determining the Efficiency of Student Loans Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dente, Bruno; Piraino, Nadia

    2011-01-01

    For both efficiency and equity reasons, student loans schemes have been introduced by several countries. Empirical work has been carried out in order to measure the effectiveness of these policies, but, with few exceptions, their results are not comparable because of their concentration on specific aspects. The present work suggests a…

  13. Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Celik, Levent; Karabay, Bilgehan; McLaren, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 91, č. 2 (2013), s. 179-190 ISSN 0022-1996 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/12/0666 Grant - others:UK(CZ) UNCE 204005/2012 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : trade policy * multilateral legislative bargaining * political economy Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.443, year: 2013

  14. Integrated Climate Change Modelling and Policy Linkages for ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The project will consolidate the collective experience of CCW recipients from Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean to develop and test a framework designed to overcome the mismatch between supply-driven climate research and demand-driven planning and policy. The project team will identify leading ...

  15. A problem solving model for regulatory policy making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, A.; van Engers, T.; Sileno, G.; Wyner, A.; Benn, N.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we discuss how the interests and field theory promoted by public administration as a stakeholder in policy argumentation, directly arise from its problem solving activities, using the framework for public administration problem solving we proposed in [1,2]. We propose that calls for

  16. PET kinetic analysis. Compartmental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watabe, Hiroshi; Ikoma, Yoko; Shidahara, Miho; Kimura, Yuichi; Naganawa, Mika

    2006-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) enables not only visualization of the distribution of radiotracer, but also has ability to quantify several biomedical functions. Compartmental model is a basic idea to analyze dynamic PET data. This review describes the principle of the compartmental model and categorizes the techniques and approaches for the compartmental model according to various aspects: model design, experimental design, invasiveness, and mathematical solution. We also discussed advanced applications of the compartmental analysis with PET. (author)

  17. State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA): State Policy and the Pursuit of Renewable Energy Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, E.; Oteri, F.; Tegen, S.; Doris, E.

    2010-02-01

    Future manufacturing of renewable energy equipment in the United States provides economic development opportunities for state and local communities. However, demand for the equipment is finite, and opportunities are limited. U.S. demand is estimated to drive total annual investments in renewable energy equipment to $14-$20 billion by 2030. Evidence from leading states in renewable energy manufacturing suggests that economic development strategies that target renewable energy sector needs by adapting existing policies attract renewable energy manufacturing more than strategies that create new policies. Literature suggests that the states that are most able to attract direct investment and promote sustained economic development can leverage diverse sets of durable assets--like human capital and modern infrastructure--as well as low barriers to market entry. State marketing strategies for acquiring renewable energy manufacturers are likely best served by an approach that: (1) is multi-faceted and long-term, (2) fits within existing broad-based economic development strategies, (3) includes specific components such as support for renewable energy markets and low barriers to renewable energy deployment, and (4) involves increased differentiation by leveraging existing assets when applicable.

  18. State Clean Energy Policies Analysis (SCEPA). State Policy and the Pursuit of Renewable Energy Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Oteri, Frank [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Tegen, Suzanne [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Doris, Elizabeth [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2010-02-01

    Future manufacturing of renewable energy equipment in the United States provides economic development opportunities for state and local communities. However, demand for the equipment is finite, and opportunities are limited. U.S. demand is estimated to drive total annual investments in renewable energy equipment to $14-$20 billion by 2030. Evidence from leading states in renewable energy manufacturing suggests that economic development strategies that target renewable energy sector needs by adapting existing policies attract renewable energy manufacturing more than strategies that create new policies. Literature suggests that the states that are most able to attract direct investment and promote sustained economic development can leverage diverse sets of durable assets—like human capital and modern infrastructure–as well as low barriers to market entry. State marketing strategies for acquiring renewable energy manufacturers are likely best served by an approach that: (1) is multi-faceted and long-term, (2) fits within existing broad-based economic development strategies, (3) includes specific components such as support for renewable energy markets and low barriers to renewable energy deployment, and (4) involves increased differentiation by leveraging existing assets when applicable.

  19. A comparative analysis of sexual harassment policies at selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article investigates sexual harassment issues by means of an in depth literature review and by analyzing and comparing the sexual harassment policies of selected universities in South Africa. Various alternatives that categorize sexual harassment are proposed in order to form a clear perspective on the different ...

  20. Rethinking EU Employment Policy; a legal and economic analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.P.S. van Duin (Kees)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Given the central role of the labour market in determining the welfare of citizens it is no wonder that governments aim for influencing the labour market process. The European Union has influenced and facilitated the labour market process by policies ranging from the

  1. Institutional Support : Institute of Policy Analysis and Research ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This grant from IDRC's Think Tank Initiative (TTI) will help IPAR address its sustainability issues by offering competitive remuneration packages to reduce staff turnover, recruiting additional staff, training existing staff, improving organizational systems and infrastructure, expanding its policy advocacy work, enhancing the ...

  2. Canadian Offshore Schools in China: A Comparative Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fei

    2017-01-01

    Internationalisation is no longer a well-recognised feature unique to higher education. It has permeated K-12 education. However, little research has been done on internationalisation at the K-12 level, particularly on offshore schools. This study examines how Canadian and Chinese policies regarding offshore schools have developed over the years,…

  3. Agricultural Policy Analysis Studies in Tanzania: A Historical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reviews studies which have addressed agricultural policy research in relation to Tanzania during and after economic structural adjustment, with some cross reference for studies within Africa and globally. The studies are reviewed to cover: factor markets; product markets; and macro-economic management in ...

  4. Comparative analysis of policies to deal with wildfire risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carreiras, M.; Ferreira, A.D.J.; Valente, S.; Fleskens, L.; Gonzales-Pelayo, O.; Rubio, J.L.; Stoof, C.R.; Coelho, C.O.A.; Ferreira, C.S.S.; Ritsema, C.J.

    2014-01-01

    Fires are the main driver of land degradation in forest areas in Mediterranean sub-humid regions and are likely to increase as a result of climate and other global changes. To prevent deleterious processes induced by fire, several policies and strategies have been implemented at national and

  5. Policy Analysis for Growth and Employment | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Through the network, research teams from different countries compare and contrast policies and programs, promoting South-South learning. Increasingly, PEP is being called upon by international institutions like the United Nations Children's Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and the United Nations ...

  6. U.S. immigration reform: policy issues and economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Mcdowell, J M

    1985-01-01

    This paper discusses the US immigration issue which has resurfaced in the last 10 years because the foreign born population grew by 4.5 million between 1970 and 1980. Because immigration accounts for 25% of the US population growth during the 1970s, reconsideration of US immigration policy by the government is underway. The Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy was established in 1979 to evaluate existing laws and policies on admitting immigrants into the US. Presently, these policies focus on family reunification, as opposed to labor considerations. In 1984, the Senate and House passed the Simpson-Mazzoli Bill, but the bill died in the conference committee that was established to reconcile the differences between the 2 versions. 3 provisions of debate surround the proposed act: 1) control of illegal immigration - - the Senate arguing for the requirement of a national identification card to verify an individual is authorized for US employment; 2) legalization of alien status - - the House refusing to confer immediate permanent resident status on any alien; and 3) reform of legal immigration - - a provision that the House altogether ignores. Immigration takes jobs from Americans, depresses domestic wages, and worsens working conditions. On the other hand, immigrants fill the jobs which domestic workers find undesirable. The compromises reached by the conference committee concentrate on employer sanctions and the legalization of illegal aliens; reform of legal immigration failed to gain approval.

  7. Analysis of the Effect of Monetary Policy Development on Equity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ordinary least square regression (OLS) was run using five monetary policy variables including minimum rediscount rate, treasury bill rate, interest rate, exchange rate and consumer price index (proxy for inflation) on the equity prices (proxied by all share price index). The first investigation of this study is that minimum ...

  8. Accountability Policies at Schools: A Study of Path Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdag, Coskun

    2017-01-01

    Turkey is now on its way to reforming compulsory education and having a more effective and efficient education system by creating more accountable schools. This research has been designed in a causative pattern to discover the effects of external academic performance pressures on school accountability policies and school accountability responses…

  9. Analysis of the Effect of Monetary Policy Development on Equity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-12-01

    Dec 1, 2012 ... equity prices, except the consumer price index that has insignificant positive relationship with equity prices. The study ... market has not significantly absorbed the monetary policy impulses and therefore cannot be taken as being a good .... operator based on information available to market participants at ...

  10. Investments in technology subject to uncertainty. Analysis and policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Lindgaard

    1997-01-01

    Investments in technology are today of such a magnitude that it matters. In the paper there are three important questions. First on the question in which sense technological uncertainty can be said to be a problem. Second on strategies for diminishing technological uncertainties. Three on policy...

  11. Nigeria's Foreign policy: A problem analysis | Saliu | African Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    for Researchers · for Journals · for Authors · for Policy Makers · about Open Access · Journal Quality. 521 African Journals. Browse By Category · Browse Alphabetically · Browse By Country · List All Titles · Free To Read Titles This Journal is Open Access. Featuring journals from 32 Countries: Algeria (5); Benin (2); Botswana ...

  12. History: An Analysis of the Former Soviet Union Foreign Policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts an appraisal of the FSU's foreign policy using Russia and Ukraine as case studies. The international context which Russia and Ukraine have confronted in view of the gravity of change, combined with the unique circumstances of their emergence through a process of the soviet state collapse, has ...

  13. Agricultural Policy Analysis Studies in Tanzania: A Historical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-07-22

    Jul 22, 2005 ... Lindert (1991) defines agricultural policy as “all agricultural initiatives affecting the ... Tanzania during and after economic structural adjustment, with some cross reference for studies within Africa and globally. The studies are reviewed ...... Endogenous Soil Fertility. Statistics Norway,. Research Department.

  14. Analysis of Access Control Policies in Operating Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong

    2009-01-01

    Operating systems rely heavily on access control mechanisms to achieve security goals and defend against remote and local attacks. The complexities of modern access control mechanisms and the scale of policy configurations are often overwhelming to system administrators and software developers. Therefore, mis-configurations are common, and the…

  15. Policy Analysis for Growth and Employment | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project supports work by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) to address labour markets, social protection, and entrepreneurship - three areas that are ... Le programme de recherche Croissance de l'économie et débouchés économiques des femmes (CEDEF) est une initiative de collaboration entre le CRDI, ...

  16. Institutional Support : Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR)

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This grant from IDRC's Think Tank Initiative (TTI) will help IPAR address its sustainability issues by offering competitive remuneration packages to reduce staff turnover, recruiting additional staff, training existing staff, improving organizational systems and infrastructure, expanding its policy advocacy work, enhancing the ...

  17. Institutional Diversity in Ontario's University Sector: A Policy Debate Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piché, Pierre G.; Jones, Glen A.

    2016-01-01

    In order to meet the demands in a cost-effective manner of an emerging knowledge society that is global in scope, structural higher education policy changes have been introduced in many countries with a focus on systemic and programmatic diversity. There has been an ongoing debate about institutional diversity in Ontario higher education,…

  18. Situation Analysis of Alcohol Control Policy in Five African Countries ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It is therefore critical to document and evaluate the nature and impact of alcohol promotion, policy, and legislation in Africa. This research will achieve that goal ... The University of Cape Town (UCT) will host the umbrella project and will provide training, scientific support, and ethical oversight. It will help synthesize the data ...

  19. Environmental Pollution Control Policy-Making: An Analysis of Elite Perceptions and Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althoff, Phillip; Greig, William H.

    1974-01-01

    This article is based on an analysis of the perceptions and preferences of elite groups concerning environmental pollution control policy making. Results showed that although the groups agreed that present methods were inadequate, they were, nevertheless, unable to agree upon the nature of a future policy-making system. (MA)

  20. A Content Analysis of School Anti-Bullying Policies in Northern Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purdy, Noel; Smith, Peter K.

    2016-01-01

    This original study presents a content analysis of 100 primary and post-primary school anti-bullying policies in Northern Ireland using a 36-item scoring scheme. Overall schools had 52% of the items in their policies. Most schools included reference to physical, verbal, relational, material and cyberbullying but a minority mentioned racist,…