Palliative care policy analysis in Iran: A conceptual model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mojgan Ansari

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Palliative care programs are rapidly evolving for patients with life-threatening illnesses. Increased and earlier access for facilities is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy, and research. Aim: This study was conducted to explain stakeholders' perceptions of the factors affecting the design of such a palliative care system and its policy analysis. Methodology: Semi-structured in-depth interviews conducted following purposive sampling of the participants. Twenty-two participants were included in the study. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative-directed content analysis based on "policy analysis triangle" framework. Results: The findings showed the impact of four categories, namely context (political, social, and structural feasibility, content (target setting, process (attracting stakeholder participation, the standardization of care, and education management, and actors (the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, health-care providers, and volunteers in the analysis of the palliative care policies of Iran. Conclusion: In the past 6 years, attention to palliative care has increased significantly as a result of the National Cancer Research Network with the support of the Ministry of Health. The success of health system plan requires great attention to its aspects of social, political, and executive feasibility. Careful management by policymakers of different stakeholders is vital to ensure support for any national plan, but this is challenging to achieve.

Affective Policy Performance Evaluation Model: A Case of an International Trade Policy Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inwon Kang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Firms often superficially adopt policies because of governmental rules and regulations, so as to avoid penalties or to gain benefits. However, the evaluation and characterization of those kinds of adoptions as policy performance distorts the true level of policy performance: social sustainability. This study proposes an affective policy performance evaluation model. The attitudes of employees toward adopting a policy are characterized into genuine and superficial compliance. Their behaviors are explained through voluntary and opportunistic adoptions. In order to validate the proposed model, a survey was conducted on an international trade policy target group (n = 216 for the Strategic Trade Control System (STCS, in order to understand their attitudes toward adopting the policy. The survey data was analyzed by a structural equation modeling method. The measures of the factors in the proposed model are adopted and modified from existing studies. The most effective resources of policy implementation on the firms’ genuine and superficial compliance and ultimately on the firms’ voluntary policy adoption are revealed through the analysis. Based on the results, this study presents a strategy for allocating and managing policy implementation resources to exclusively encourage firms’ trade policy adoptions.

Policy modeling for industrial energy use

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Worrell, Ernst; Park, Hi-Chun; Lee, Sang-Gon; Jung, Yonghun; Kato, Hiroyuki; Ramesohl, Stephan; Boyd, Gale; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Nyboer, John; Jaccard, Mark; Nordqvist, Joakim; Boyd, Christopher; Klee, Howard; Anglani, Norma; Biermans, Gijs

2003-03-01

The international workshop on Policy Modeling for Industrial Energy Use was jointly organized by EETA (Professional Network for Engineering Economic Technology Analysis) and INEDIS (International Network for Energy Demand Analysis in the Industrial Sector). The workshop has helped to layout the needs and challenges to include policy more explicitly in energy-efficiency modeling. The current state-of-the-art models have a proven track record in forecasting future trends under conditions similar to those faced in the recent past. However, the future of energy policy in a climate-restrained world is likely to demand different and additional services to be provided by energy modelers. In this workshop some of the international models used to make energy consumption forecasts have been discussed as well as innovations to enable the modeling of policy scenarios. This was followed by the discussion of future challenges, new insights in the data needed to determine the inputs into energy model s, and methods to incorporate decision making and policy in the models. Based on the discussion the workshop participants came to the following conclusions and recommendations: Current energy models are already complex, and it is already difficult to collect the model inputs. Hence, new approaches should be transparent and not lead to extremely complex models that try to ''do everything''. The model structure will be determined by the questions that need to be answered. A good understanding of the decision making framework of policy makers and clear communication on the needs are essential to make any future energy modeling effort successful. There is a need to better understand the effects of policy on future energy use, emissions and the economy. To allow the inclusion of policy instruments in models, evaluation of programs and instruments is essential, and need to be included in the policy instrument design. Increased efforts are needed to better understand the

Energy-economy models and energy efficiency policy evaluation for the household sector. An analysis of modelling tools and analytical approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena

2009-10-15

Using the residential sector as a case study, the research presented in this report is separated into five main parts: (1) review of bottom-up methodologies and corresponding energy-economy models; (2) key drivers of energy demand and end-use coverage, (3) choice-determinants for efficient-technologies embedded in modelling methodologies; and (4) the analysis of modelling studies that focus on ex-ante energy efficiency policy evaluation. Based on the findings, (5) several research areas to further advance models are identified and discussed. We first identify four types of methodological categories: simulation, optimisation, accounting and hybrid models. A representative sample of these various methodological categories is reviewed. Technology representation is mostly explicit and technologically rich across all the reviewed models. This is a critical requisite for simulating energy efficiency policy instruments or portfolios that aim to induce ample technological change. Regardless the methodological approach, the explicit and rich technological component allows coverage of numerous energy services. All the reviewed models originate from the OECD region and more than 60 per cent of the identified applications focus mostly on developed countries. To some extent, this finding correlates with the claims about the need for more policy evaluation efforts to assist energy efficiency policy and other GHG mitigation options for the building sector in developing countries. We find that whereas capital and operating costs are relevant for efficient-technology (non-)adoption, they represent only a part of a great variety of determinants that drives consumer's energy-related decisions regarding technology choices. Factors including design, comfort, brand, functionality, reliability, environmental awareness, among others, are likely to influence the decisions of consumers in reality. Whereas economic variables are used as key determinants for technology choice in energy

Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mundaca, Luis; Neij, Lena; Worrell, Ernst; McNeil, Michael A.

2010-08-01

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically analyse bottom-up energy-economy models and corresponding evaluation studies on energy efficiency policies to induce technological change. We use the household sector as a case study. Our analysis focuses on decision frameworks for technology choice, type of evaluation being carried out, treatment of market and behavioural failures, evaluated policy instruments, and key determinants used to mimic policy instruments. Although the review confirms criticism related to energy-economy models (e.g. unrealistic representation of decision-making by consumers when choosing technologies), they provide valuable guidance for policy evaluation related to energy efficiency. Different areas to further advance models remain open, particularly related to modelling issues, techno-economic and environmental aspects, behavioural determinants, and policy considerations.

Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capros, P.; Karadeloglou, P.; Mentzas, G.

1992-01-01

This paper attempts an analysis of energy and macroeconomic policy issues in oil-importing countries within the context of decreasing oil prices and macroeconomic modelling. A medium-term perspective is retained and the assumption is made that the economy experiences unemployment and excess capacity when the price declines. The analysis excludes any response elements that refer to long-term equilibria, optimum allocation of resources or welfare characterization of results which should be dealt with within the context of price adjusted equilibrium models. This paper adopts the approach of quantity adjusted neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models. The paper also inquires into the macroeconomic models currently used by the Commission of the European Communities. The analysis is carried out using the HGRV model which is a large-scale neo-Keynesian multisectoral macroeconomic model of the Greek economy. (UK)

The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Mihail

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

The Relevance of Using Mathematical Models in Macroeconomic Policies Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nora Mihail

2006-09-01

Full Text Available The article presents a look of the principal’s mathematical models – starting with Theil, Hansen and Tinbergen work – and their results used to analysis and design macroeconomic policies. In modeling field changes are very fast in theoretical aspects of modeling the many problems of macroeconomic policies and in using in practice the different political models elaboration. The article points out the problems of static and dynamic theory used in macro-policies modeling.

A review of Agent Based Modeling for agricultural policy evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kremmydas, Dimitris; Athanasiadis, I.N.; Rozakis, Stelios

2018-01-01

Farm level scale policy analysis is receiving increased attention due to a changing agricultural policy orientation. Agent based models (ABM) are farm level models that have appeared in the end of 1990's, having several differences from traditional farm level models, like the consideration of

Dividend Policy and Corporate Value (A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tifani Titah Dwi Tyastari

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to understand the effect of dividend policy on corporate value, as well as to examine and analyze the variation of result study on corporate value in Indonesia.Dividend Signaling Model was the grand theory used to explain the effect of dividend policy on corporate value. This study used meta-analysis approach with the sample were 70 researches in Indonesia, both the published and unpublished in 2007-2015. The result of this study, meta-analysis strengthens the findings of the previous study which stated that the dividend policy could increase the corporate value. The differences of the previous studies were due to the presence of moderation effect from the measurement model of corporate value and dividend corporate.

Optimal Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Endogenous Growth Model: a calibrated analysis

OpenAIRE

Arato, Hiroki

2009-01-01

This paper constructs an endogenous growth New Keynesian model and considers growth and welfare effect of Taylor-type (operational) monetary policy rules. The Ramsey equilibrium and optimal operational monetary policy rule is also computed. In the calibrated model, the Ramseyoptimal volatility of inflation rate is smaller than that in standard exogenous growth New Keynesian model with physical capital accumulation. Optimal operational monetary policy rule makes nominal interest rate respond s...

Moving communities toward policy change: APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K; Lew, Rod

2013-09-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL's 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities.

Policy modeling for energy efficiency improvement in US industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worrell, Ernst; Price, Lynn; Ruth, Michael

2001-01-01

We are at the beginning of a process of evaluating and modeling the contribution of policies to improve energy efficiency. Three recent policy studies trying to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies in the United States are reviewed. The studies represent an important step in the analysis of climate change mitigation strategies. All studies model the estimated policy impact, rather than the policy itself. Often the policy impacts are based on assumptions, as the effects of a policy are not certain. Most models only incorporate economic (or price) tools, which recent studies have proven to be insufficient to estimate the impacts, costs and benefits of mitigation strategies. The reviewed studies are a first effort to capture the effects of non-price policies. The studies contribute to a better understanding of the role of policies in improving energy efficiency and mitigating climate change. All policy scenarios results in substantial energy savings compared to the baseline scenario used, as well as substantial net benefits to the U.S. economy

Applying air pollution modelling within a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to evaluate UK air quality policies

Science.gov (United States)

Chalabi, Zaid; Milojevic, Ai; Doherty, Ruth M.; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Milner, James; Vieno, Massimo; Williams, Martin; Wilkinson, Paul

2017-10-01

A decision support system for evaluating UK air quality policies is presented. It combines the output from a chemistry transport model, a health impact model and other impact models within a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. As a proof-of-concept, the MCDA framework is used to evaluate and compare idealized emission reduction policies in four sectors (combustion in energy and transformation industries, non-industrial combustion plants, road transport and agriculture) and across six outcomes or criteria (mortality, health inequality, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, crop yield and air quality legal compliance). To illustrate a realistic use of the MCDA framework, the relative importance of the criteria were elicited from a number of stakeholders acting as proxy policy makers. In the prototype decision problem, we show that reducing emissions from industrial combustion (followed very closely by road transport and agriculture) is more advantageous than equivalent reductions from the other sectors when all the criteria are taken into account. Extensions of the MCDA framework to support policy makers in practice are discussed.

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Quantification model of the consequences of monetary policy shocks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coralia Emilia POPA

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The monetary analysis based on the BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression model is extremely important in the monetary policy implementation strategy, the information provided is important not only for the Central Bank, but also for the economic agents and the population. Therefore, conducting this analysis at the level of Romania helps to understand better the mechanism by which monetary policy is transmitted in order to achieve the set target, namely inflation targeting, but it also provides us with important information regarding the accession to the euro area. The model we are trying to test helps us understand through the correlations between the interest rate, GDP and the inflation rate how monetary policy responds to shocks. The model follows the methodology presented by Sims and Zha (1998 in the paper "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models and Using the Bayesian Autoregressive Vector". In the analysis of this model, quarterly data for a minimum of three years, three variables are used to make the results relevant. The data needed to model the model are used in logarithmic form, except for the interest rate, and the outcome is applied to a differentiated premium operator. Of the variables used, the interest rate is the only one that does not allow seasonal adjustment.

Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wivel, Anders

2017-01-01

'Realism in Foreign Policy Analysis' traces how realist thinking on foreign policy has developed over the years and discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by various strands of realism when applied to foreign policy analysis....

A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

2017-01-01

Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing...... them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public...... policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

Moving Communities Toward Policy Change: APPEAL’s 4-Prong Policy Change Model

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, Elisa K.; Lew, Rod

2014-01-01

Policy change is recognized for underlying much of the success of tobacco control. However, there is little evidence and attention on how Asian American and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (AA and NHPI) communities may engage in policy change. Challenges for AA and NHPI communities include the racial/ethnic and geographic diversity, and tobacco data accurately representing the communities. Over the past decade, the Asian Pacific Partners for Empowerment, Advocacy and Leadership (APPEAL) has worked to develop and implement policy change for AA and NHPI communities. This article describes APPEAL’s 4-prong policy change model, in the context of its overall strategic framework for policy change with communities that accounts for varying levels of readiness and leadership capacity, and targets four different levels of policy change (community, mainstream institution, legislative, and corporate). The health promotion implication of this framework for tobacco control policy engagement is for improving understanding of effective pathways to policy change, promoting innovative methods for policy analysis, and translating them into effective implementation and sustainability of policy initiatives. The APPEAL strategic framework can transcend into other communities and health topics that ultimately may contribute to the elimination of health disparities. PMID:23707962

Environmental policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1978-01-01

The Environmental Policy Analysis Program was established to improve the formation of energy development and environmental policies with due mutual regard for national environmental and energy development needs. As a separate office under the Assistant Secretary for Environment, the program is implemented by the Director and by Offices of Environmental Policy Analysis in the eight DOE multiprogram laboratories. The program provides the Assistant Secretary with information on alternatives for decision making and early warning of environmental problems and considerations that may affect energy policy decisions. The program is intended to be a continuing activity, with its scope determined progressively as issues are defined. During FY-1977 the program focused on information compilation on levels of Pu and other transuranic elements in soils that would render the area unsafe for unlimited use; the impact of water pollution control laws on energy technologies; an analysis of the comparative health risks associated with various energy technologies; and the cost and related impacts on the nuclear industry arising from changes in radiation standards during the past 15 years

From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

2015-01-01

At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

A model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hope, C.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the PAGE model (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), developed by Cambridge Decision Analysts for the Directorate general for Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection of the Commission of the European Communities. The rest of this section describes the motivation for developing PAGE; it is followed by sections outlining the features of PAGE, explaining its structure in more detail, and reporting some of the uses to which it is being put. The current consensus is that unchecked emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to a rise in global mean temperature. The causal chain from emissions to temperature is complex, and current estimates give a range of 2 - 5 deg C for the temperature rise by the year 2100 if no specific actions are taken to control emissions. The damage that a global temperature rise of a few degrees over a century would cause is also not well known. Some influential groups are sufficiently alarmed to have called for global agreements to stabilize or reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Others claim that the costs of doing so would not be justified, and that adapting to a changed climate would be the best policy. Negotiations are further complicated by the global nature of the problem; if a country, or even a major trading block such as the European Community, decided to control emissions of a greenhouse gas, some of the benefit would be gained in other parts of the world that have not shared in the cost of control. 12 refs., 6 figs

Modeling of global biomass policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, Dolf; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies

Modeling of global biomass policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gielen, D.; Fujino, Junichi; Hashimoto, Seiji; Moriguchi, Yuichi

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the BEAP model and its use for the analysis of biomass policies for CO 2 emission reduction. The model considers competing land use, trade and leakage effects, and competing emission reduction strategies. Two policy scenarios are presented. In case of a 2040 time horizon the results suggest that a combination of afforestation and limited use of biomass for energy and materials constitutes the most attractive set of strategies. In case of a 'continued Kyoto' scenario including afforestation permit trade, the results suggest 5.1 Gt emission reduction based on land use change in 2020, two thirds of the total emission reduction by then. In case of global emission reduction, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounts for one quarter of the emission reduction. However these results depend on the modeling time horizon. In case of a broader time horizon, maximized biomass production is more attractive than LULUCF. This result can be interpreted as a warning against a market based trading scheme for LULUCF credits. The model results suggest that the bioenergy market is dominated by transportation fuels and heating, and to a lesser extent feedstocks. Bioelectricity does not gain a significant market share in case competing CO 2 -free electricity options such as CO 2 capture and sequestration and nuclear are considered. To some extent trade in agricultural food products such as beef and cereals will be affected by CO 2 policies. (Author)

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

Science.gov (United States)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

2010-01-01

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peerlings, J.

1993-01-01

The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigley, T.M.L.

2003-01-01

Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli [Department of Spatial Economics, Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2000-11-01

Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs.

Modelling issues on climate change policies. A discussion of the GTAP-E model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kremers, H.; Nijkamp, P.; Wang, Shunli

2000-01-01

Ater the Kyoto agreements the need has arisen to trace the implications of various international environmental strategies. In this paper, we discuss relevant modelling issues of incorporating important environmental policy measures in one of the popular applied general equilibrium models for international trade, the so-called GTAP model. Special attention is paid to an extended version, the GTAP-E (Global Trade Analysis Project - Energy) by addressing the question how to include the widely discussed instruments of International Emission Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanisms. The paper will be concluded with some policy issues. 10 refs

Health care models guiding mental health policy in Kenya 1965 - 1997

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenkins Rachel

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mental health policy is needed to set the strategy and direction for the provision of mental health services in a country. Policy formulation does not occur in a vacuum, however, but is influenced by local and international factors in the health sector and other sectors. Methods This study was carried out in 1997 to examine the evolution of mental health policy in Kenya between 1965 and 1997 in the context of changing international concepts of health and development. Qualitative content analysis of policy documents was combined with interviews of key policy makers. Results The study showed that during the period 1965-1997 the generic health policy in Kenya changed from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s and 1970s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the late 1970s and the 1980s and finally to one based on the Market Model of health care in the 1990s. The mental health policy, on the other hand, evolved from one based on the Medical Model in the 1960s to one based on the Primary Health Care Model in the 1990s, but did not embrace the Market Model of health care. This resulted in a situation in the 1990s where the mental health policy was rooted in a different conceptual model from that of the generic health policy under which it was supposed to be implemented. This "Model Muddlement" may have impeded the implementation of the mental health policy in Kenya. Conclusions Integration of the national mental health policy with the general health policy and other sector policies would be appropriate and is now underway.

The Policy Dystopia Model: An Interpretive Analysis of Tobacco Industry Political Activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ulucanlar, Selda; Fooks, Gary J; Gilmore, Anna B

2016-09-01

Tobacco industry interference has been identified as the greatest obstacle to the implementation of evidence-based measures to reduce tobacco use. Understanding and addressing industry interference in public health policy-making is therefore crucial. Existing conceptualisations of corporate political activity (CPA) are embedded in a business perspective and do not attend to CPA's social and public health costs; most have not drawn on the unique resource represented by internal tobacco industry documents. Building on this literature, including systematic reviews, we develop a critically informed conceptual model of tobacco industry political activity. We thematically analysed published papers included in two systematic reviews examining tobacco industry influence on taxation and marketing of tobacco; we included 45 of 46 papers in the former category and 20 of 48 papers in the latter (n = 65). We used a grounded theory approach to build taxonomies of "discursive" (argument-based) and "instrumental" (action-based) industry strategies and from these devised the Policy Dystopia Model, which shows that the industry, working through different constituencies, constructs a metanarrative to argue that proposed policies will lead to a dysfunctional future of policy failure and widely dispersed adverse social and economic consequences. Simultaneously, it uses diverse, interlocking insider and outsider instrumental strategies to disseminate this narrative and enhance its persuasiveness in order to secure its preferred policy outcomes. Limitations are that many papers were historical (some dating back to the 1970s) and focused on high-income regions. The model provides an evidence-based, accessible way of understanding diverse corporate political strategies. It should enable public health actors and officials to preempt these strategies and develop realistic assessments of the industry's claims.

Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fumanelli, Laura; Ajelli, Marco; Merler, Stefano; Ferguson, Neil M; Cauchemez, Simon

2016-01-01

School closure policies are among the non-pharmaceutical measures taken into consideration to mitigate influenza epidemics and pandemics spread. However, a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative closure policies has yet to emerge. Here we perform a model-based analysis of four types of school closure, ranging from the nationwide closure of all schools at the same time to reactive gradual closure, starting from class-by-class, then grades and finally the whole school. We consider policies based on triggers that are feasible to monitor, such as school absenteeism and national ILI surveillance system. We found that, under specific constraints on the average number of weeks lost per student, reactive school-by-school, gradual, and county-wide closure give comparable outcomes in terms of optimal infection attack rate reduction, peak incidence reduction or peak delay. Optimal implementations generally require short closures of one week each; this duration is long enough to break the transmission chain without leading to unnecessarily long periods of class interruption. Moreover, we found that gradual and county closures may be slightly more easily applicable in practice as they are less sensitive to the value of the excess absenteeism threshold triggering the start of the intervention. These findings suggest that policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

A socio-historical approach to policy analysis: the case of the Brazilian Workers' Food Policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa-Souza, Jamacy; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria; Pinell, Patrice

2018-02-05

Policy analyses based on traditional or structuralist definitions of the state are important, but they have some limitations for explaining processes related to policymaking, implementation, and results. Bourdieusian sociology links the analysis to objective and subjective dimensions of social practices and can help elucidate these phenomena. This article provides such empirical evidence by analyzing the social genesis of a Brazilian policy that currently serves 18 million workers and was established by the state in 1976 through the Fiscal Incentives Program for Workers' Nutrition (PIFAT/PAT). The study linked the analysis of the trajectory of social agents involved in the policy's formulation to the historical conditions that allowed the policy to exist in the first place. Although the literature treats the policy as a workers' food program (PAT), the current study showed that it actually represented a new model for paying financial subsidies to companies that provided food to their employees, meanwhile upgrading the commercial market for collective meals. The study further showed that the program emerged as an administrative policy, but linked to economic agents. The program became a specific social space in which issues related to workers' nutrition became secondary, but useful for disguising what had been an explicit side of its genesis, namely its essentially fiscal nature.

Experiences with a dialogue process between policy makers and global modellers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Daalen, C.E.; Thissen, W.A.H.; Berk, M.M.

1998-01-01

Between 1995 and 1997, a series of five workshops, henceforth called the Delft process, took place with the aim to explore and enhance use of the IMAGE 2 model to support international climate negotiations. The IMAGE 2 model is a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The workshops facilitated a dialogue between policy makers and scientists involved in the development and applications of the IMAGE 2 model. In this way, policy makers would benefit from the policy makers on how to improve the policy relevance of the IMAGE 2 model. The evaluation at the end of the workshop series showed that participants have used information from the workshop at international negotiation conferences and in preparation of policy documents. The process shows that creating a forum for direct science-policy interactions can be very useful and productive, and has confirmed the importance of creating an open and constructive atmosphere between policy makers, and between policy makers and analysts, to enhance utilisation of scientific knowledge. The authors' analysis also suggests that many factors have to be 'in the right position at the right time and place' to achieve such a success, and that it is difficult to prevent the occurrence of biases in processes like this. 33 refs

An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trappey, Amy J.C.; Trappey, Charles; Hsiao, C.T.; Ou, Jerry J.R.; Li, S.J.; Chen, Kevin W.P.

2012-01-01

Conserving energy and reducing carbon emissions have become the common responsibility of the international community. During the year 2010, the Taiwan government planned a four-year project budgeted at 300 million US dollars, called “The Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project.” The policy objective is to use Penghu Island (population 85,000) as a test platform to evaluate new ways to conserve energy and reduce carbon emissions before attempting to replicate the policies on Taiwan Island. For Taiwan, a zero carbon island green transportation policy will regulate the total number of electric scooters, the total number of gasoline motorcycles, influence government subsidy incentives, and create the need for new motorcycle license issuing and control. These factors interact with each other to form a complex and dynamic system that impacts policy as well as the current way of life. In this study, a system dynamics approach is designed to construct a model for evaluating the green transportation policy on Penghu Island. Simulations are conducted to model green transportation system behavior and related policy effects in a smaller, controlled environment before creating policies for Taiwan Island that will impact the lives of over 23 million people. - Highlights: ► Provides an overview of Taiwan's Penghu Low Carbon Island Development Project. ► Develops a systems dynamics approach for green transportation policy assessment. ► Provides causal analysis of social, economic, and environmental factors. ► Demonstrates that the proposed policy cannot meet the CO 2 reduction goals. ► Alternative policies can be evaluated using the proposed approach.

Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silitonga, R. Y.H.; Siswanto, J.; Simatupang, T.; Bahagia, S.N.

2016-07-01

The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO) and refined palm oil (RPO), each has different added value. The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach. (Author)

Modeling policy mix to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roland Y H Silitonga

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this research is to develop a model that will explain the impact of government policies to the competitiveness of palm oil industry. The model involves two commodities in this industry, namely crude palm oil (CPO and refined palm oil (RPO, each has different added value. Design/methodology/approach: The model built will define the behavior of government in controlling palm oil industry, and their interactions with macro-environment, in order to improve the competitiveness of the industry. Therefore the first step was to map the main activities in this industry using value chain analysis. After that a conceptual model was built, where the output of the model is competitiveness of the industry based on market share. The third step was model formulation. The model is then utilized to simulate the policy mix given by government in improving the competitiveness of Palm Oil Industry. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using only some policies which give direct impact to the competitiveness of the industry. For macro environment input, only price is considered in this model. Practical implications: The model can simulate the output of the industry for various government policies mix given to the industry. Originality/value: This research develops a model that can represent the structure and relationship between industry, government and macro environment, using value chain analysis and hierarchical multilevel system approach.

Analysis of product efficiency of hybrid vehicles and promotion policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Hyundo; Oh, Inha

2010-01-01

The key aim of this study is to evaluate the product efficiency of current hybrid vehicles and suggest effective policies to promote hybrid vehicles in the Korean automobile market and development trends of hybrid vehicles. The efficiency levels for car models sold in Korea, including hybrid ones, were measured using the recently developed discrete additive data envelopment analysis (DEA) model that reflects consumer preference. The result of the analysis shows that current hybrid vehicles on the market are still at lower competitive advantage than traditional car models with conventional combustion engines and we can suggest a mix of incentive policies to promote the competitiveness of hybrid vehicles. In addition, we also identify two distinctive trends of hybrid vehicle development: environment-oriented hybrid vehicles and performance-oriented hybrid vehicles. It implies that the government should take account of development trends of hybrid vehicles to achieve the policy goals in designing support schemes and automobile companies that are willing to develop hybrid vehicles can also gain some insights for making strategic decisions. (author)

Methodology for Participatory Policy Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Geurts, J.L.A.; Joldersma, F.

2001-01-01

In the course of time it has become clear that policy analysts who use traditional formal modeling techniques have limited impact on policy making regarding complex policy problems. These kinds of problems require the analyst to combine scientific insights with subjective knowledge resources and to

Energy modelling platforms for policy and strategy support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dyner, I.

2000-01-01

The energy field has been dominated by 'hard' modelling approaches by researchers from engineering and economics discipline. The recent trend towards a more liberalised environment moves away from central planning to market-based resource allocation, leading to the creation and use of strategic tools, with much 'softer' specifications, in the 'system-thinking' tradition. This paper presents the use of system dynamics in a generalised way, to provide a platform for integrated energy analysis. Issues of modularity and policy evolution are important in the design of the modelling platform to facilitate its use, and reuse. Hence the concepts of a platform, rather than a model, has to be implemented in a coherent way if it is to provide sustained value for ongoing support to both government policy and corporate strategy. (author)

Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarica, Kemal; Tyner, Wallace E.

2013-01-01

This study addresses the possible impacts of energy and climate policies, namely corporate average fleet efficiency (CAFE) standard, renewable fuel standard (RFS) and clean energy standard (CES), and an economy wide equivalent carbon tax on GHG emissions in the US to the year 2045. Bottom–up and top–down modeling approaches find widespread use in energy economic modeling and policy analysis, in which they differ mainly with respect to the emphasis placed on technology of the energy system and/or the comprehensiveness of endogenous market adjustments. For this study, we use a hybrid energy modeling approach, MARKAL–Macro, that combines the characteristics of two divergent approaches, in order to investigate and quantify the cost of climate policies for the US and an equivalent carbon tax. The approach incorporates Macro-economic feedbacks through a single sector neoclassical growth model while maintaining sectoral and technological detail of the bottom–up optimization framework with endogenous aggregated energy demand. Our analysis is done for two important objectives of the US energy policy: GHG reduction and increased energy security. Our results suggest that the emission tax achieves results quite similar to the CES policy but very different results in the transportation sector. The CAFE standard and RFS are more expensive than a carbon tax for emission reductions. However, the CAFE standard and RFS are much more efficient at achieving crude oil import reductions. The GDP losses are 2.0% and 1.2% relative to the base case for the policy case and carbon tax. That difference may be perceived as being small given the increased energy security gained from the CAFE and RFS policy measures and the uncertainty inherent in this type of analysis. - Highlights: • Evaluates US impacts of three energy/climate policies and a carbon tax (CT) • Analysis done with bottom–up MARKAL model coupled with a macro model • Electricity clean energy standard very close to

Establishment of Grain Farmers' Supply Response Model and Empirical Analysis under Minimum Grain Purchase Price Policy

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Shuang

2012-01-01

Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory, this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas, to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive imp...

Policy analysis of multi-actor systems

CERN Document Server

Enserink, Bert; Kwakkel, Jan; Thissen, Wil; Koppenjan, Joop; Bots, Pieter

2010-01-01

Policy analysts love solving complex problems. Their favorite problems are not just technically complex but also characterized by the presence of many different social actors that hold conflicting interests, objectives, and perceptions and act strategically to get the best out of a problem situation. This book offers guidance for policy analysts who want to assess if and how their analysis could be of help, based on the premise that problem formulation is the cornerstone in addressing complex problems. This book positions policy analysis within the theories on processes of policy making, and f

Developing policy analytics for public health strategy and decisions-the Sheffield alcohol policy model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel

This paper sets out the development of a methodological framework for detailed evaluation of public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction to meet UK policy-makers needs. Alcohol is known to cause substantial harms, and controlling its affordability and availability are effective policy options. Analysis and synthesis of a variety of public and commercial data sources is needed to evaluate impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers and industry, so a sound evaluation of impact is important. We discuss the iterative process to engage with stakeholders, identify evidence/data and develop analytic approaches and produce a final model structure. We set out a series of steps in modelling impact including: classification and definition of population subgroups of interest, identification and definition of harms and outcomes for inclusion, classification of modifiable components of risk and their baseline values, specification of the baseline position on policy variables especially prices, estimating effects of changing policy variables on risk factors including price elasticities, quantifying risk functions relating risk factors to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and monetary valuation. The most difficult model structuring decisions are described, as well as the final results framework used to provide decision support to national level policymakers in the UK. In the discussion we explore issues around the relationship between modelling and policy debates, valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions. We reflect on the approach taken and outline ongoing plans for further development.

Policy analysis: palliative care in Ireland.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Larkin, P

2014-03-01

Palliative care for patients with advanced illness is a subject of growing importance in health services, policy and research. In 2001 Ireland became one of the first nations to publish a dedicated national palliative care policy. This paper uses the \\'policy analysis triangle\\' as a framework to examine what the policy entailed, where the key ideas originated, why the policy process was activated, who were the key actors, and what were the main consequences. Although palliative care provision expanded following publication, priorities that were unaddressed or not fully embraced on the national policy agenda are identified. The factors underlying areas of non-fulfilment of policy are then discussed. In particular, the analysis highlights that policy initiatives in a relatively new field of healthcare face a trade-off between ambition and feasibility. Key policy goals could not be realised given the large resource commitments required; the competition for resources from other, better-established healthcare sectors; and challenges in expanding workforce and capacity. Additionally, the inherently cross-sectoral nature of palliative care complicated the co-ordination of support for the policy. Policy initiatives in emerging fields such as palliative care should address carefully feasibility and support in their conception and implementation.

Dynamic formulation of a top-down and bottom-up merging energy policy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph W.; Haldi, P.-A.; Sarlos, G.Gerard

2003-01-01

The impact of energy policy measures is not restricted to the energy system and should therefore be analysed within an economy-wide framework, while keeping the essential details of the energy sector. The aim of this paper is to present new developments in the field of the consistent evaluation of indicators for the sustainability assessment of energy policy measures. Starting from the static concept of Boehringer (Energy Econ. 20 (1998) 233), this paper shows how the complementarity format can be used in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling for a dynamic formulation of bottom-up and top-down approach merging models. While a hybrid approach increases the credibility of CGE models in energy policy analysis by replacing the energy sector generic functional forms with a bottom-up activity analysis based on specific technologies, the endogenous formulation of investment decisions makes an explicit description of evolving specific capital stocks and technology mixes possible. Both features are essential when assessing effects of policy measures that may be affected by structural change--which is typically the case in the long-term assessment of energy policy measures

THREE MODELS OF NATIONAL CRIMINAL POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Kleymenov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. Identification of the model of criminal policy in a particular state is a complex task that requires independent research.The subject. The article is devoted to modeling of the national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization. The article discusses various models of criminal policy in the conditions of globalization.The purpose of the author is to describe the basic models of national criminal policy in modern conditions of globalization.The methodology. The author uses the method of analysis and synthesis, formal legal method as well as sociological methods (survey.The results, scope of application. The author identifies three models of national criminal policy: the sovereign, reformist and experimental. The main criteria of such differentiation are the exposure to global influence, the criminological soundness and stability of criminal policy. The sovereign model is based on doctrine of weak state and a strong combat criminal activity. It is distinguished by the pursuit of the realization of the equality of all before the law, criminal strategic and political planning system with a clear definition of goals and objectives; criminological security. The reform of criminal policy is characterized byuncertainty goals and objectives, utopianism and pretentiousness, dependence on standards of the international organization, the lower prestige of criminology, reduction of social programs, lobbying of group interests, permanent amendments to the criminal and criminal procedure legislation. Experimental model of criminal policy is connected with approbation of such technologies of management of society that are criminal and contrary to human experience in fighting crime.Conclusions. Criminal

Public Policies Analysis and the Prince System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Behxhet Brajshori

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Public Policies present governmental sectorial policies and according to several scholars those are defined based on "what does the Government do". In fact, those are mandatory state's principles for the Government that aims the implementation of the strategy, objectives and Government's goals in the function of its promises' fulfilment towards the electors and all of the country's citizens. Public Policies Analysis has to do with the monitoring of government's agenda which directly can influence on a specific community. The idea of public policies analysis in linked with the need that the Government through statistical data has to prove what is being worked. Public Policies Analysis evolves in terms of design, implementation and public policies' effects. One of the methods for predicting the probability that a specifi c public policy will be implemented or not, is the Prince System. The Prince System, actually, presents a technique for assessing the relative support or opposition to a particular policy from individuals, groups or organizations.

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Prostitution and Human Trafficking : A model-based exploration and policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kovari, A.; Pruyt, E.

2012-01-01

The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to

Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koesler, Simon Tobias

2014-10-14

This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

Computable general equilibrium modelling in the context of trade and environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koesler, Simon Tobias

2014-01-01

This thesis is dedicated to the evaluation of environmental policies in the context of climate change. Its objectives are twofold. Its first part is devoted to the development of potent instruments for quantitative impact analysis of environmental policy. In this context, the main contributions include the development of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which makes use of the new comprehensive and coherent World Input-Output Dataset (WIOD) and which features a detailed representation of bilateral and bisectoral trade flows. Moreover it features an investigation of input substitutability to provide modellers with adequate estimates for key elasticities as well as a discussion and amelioration of the standard base year calibration procedure of most CGE models. Building on these tools, the second part applies the improved modelling framework and studies the economic implications of environmental policy. This includes an analysis of so called rebound effects, which are triggered by energy efficiency improvements and reduce their net benefit, an investigation of how firms restructure their production processes in the presence of carbon pricing mechanisms, and an analysis of a regional maritime emission trading scheme as one of the possible options to reduce emissions of international shipping in the EU context.

Policy Analysis Implications of a Model to Improve the Delivery of Financial Aid to Disadvantaged Students. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

Science.gov (United States)

Fenske, Robert H.; Porter, John D.

The role of institutional research in policy analysis regarding the operation of a computer model for delivery of financial aid to disadvantaged students is considered. A student financial aid model at Arizona State University is designed to develop a profile of late appliers for aid funds and also those who file inaccurate or incomplete…

Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

Science.gov (United States)

Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

2012-12-01

With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

Relating Actor Analysis Methods to Policy Problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Lei, T.E.

2009-01-01

For a policy analyst the policy problem is the starting point for the policy analysis process. During this process the policy analyst structures the policy problem and makes a choice for an appropriate set of methods or techniques to analyze the problem (Goeller 1984). The methods of the policy

Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

Sources of change in foreign policy. A review of foreign policy models for developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alba E. Gámez

2005-05-01

Full Text Available The study of what could be called the reorientation of State foreign policy is not a new phenomenon. Changes in alliances, economic partners and attitudes in the face of international issues have been reflected in myriad texts. Nevertheless, few theoretical frameworksdeal with this issue as an area of study in and of itself. Overcoming this situation would contribute to identifying and comparing the changes in attitude and discourse in the relations between countries, especially in the case of developing countries, and, by extension, thesources of these changes. This article reviews the different models for the analysis of foreign policy, using the conceptual framework of Hermann (1990 as its starting point. This framework suggests the existence of four graded levels of change which allow for studying forms of change which are subtle but important in foreign policy; it also offers a reasoned analysis for testing the relative importance of their sources. This conceptual framework can be situated in the traditional division of levels of analysis: the characteristics of the leader, bureaucratic proposer, internal adjustment, and external impact; and, while it does not provide a conclusive answer, it may be a useful tool in clarifying the ways of using empirical evidence and establishing the relative importance of the sources of change in foreign policy orientation.

Quality in environmental science for policy: Assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maxim, Laura; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der

2011-01-01

The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete notions of uncertainty leading to different and incompatible uncertainty classifications. One of the most salient shortcomings of present-day practice is that most of these classifications focus on quantifying uncertainty while ignoring the qualitative aspects that tend to be decisive in the interface between science and policy. Consequently, the current practices of uncertainty analysis contribute to increasing the perceived precision of scientific knowledge, but do not adequately address its lack of socio-political relevance. The 'positivistic' uncertainty analysis models (like those that dominate the fields of climate change modelling and nuclear or chemical risk assessment) have little social relevance, as they do not influence negotiations between stakeholders. From the perspective of the science-policy interface, the current practices of uncertainty analysis are incomplete and incorrectly focused. We argue that although scientific knowledge produced and used in a context of political decision-making embodies traditional scientific characteristics, it also holds additional properties linked to its influence on social, political, and economic relations. Therefore, the significance of uncertainty cannot be assessed based on quality criteria that refer to the scientific content only; uncertainty must also include quality criteria specific to the properties and roles of this scientific knowledge within political, social, and economic contexts and processes. We propose a conceptual framework designed to account for such substantive, contextual, and procedural criteria of knowledge quality. At the same time, the proposed framework includes and synthesizes the various

Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Baselines are generally accepted as a key input assumption in long-term energy modelling, but energy models have traditionally been poor on identifying baselines assumptions. Notably, transparency on the current policy content of model baselines is now especially critical as long-term climate mitigation policies have been underway for a number of years. This paper argues that the range of existing energy and emissions policies are an integral part of any long-term baseline, and hence already represent a 'with-policy' baseline, termed here a Business-as-Unusual (BAuU). Crucially, existing energy policies are not a sunk effort; as impacts of existing policy initiatives are targeted at future years, they may be revised through iterative policy making, and their quantitative effectiveness requires ex-post verification. To assess the long-term role of existing policies in energy modelling, currently identified UK policies are explicitly stripped out of the UK MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) optimisation energy system model, to generate a BAuU (with-policy) and a REF (without policy) baseline. In terms of long-term mitigation costs, policy-baseline assumptions are comparable to another key exogenous modelling assumption - that of global fossil fuel prices. Therefore, best practice in energy modelling would be to have both a no-policy reference baseline, and a current policy reference baseline (BAuU). At a minimum, energy modelling studies should have a transparent assessment of the current policy contained within the baseline. Clearly identifying and comparing policy-baseline assumptions are required for cost effective and objective policy making, otherwise energy models will underestimate the true cost of long-term emissions reductions.

Modeling policy issues in a world of imperfect competition

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dierker, Egbert; Grodal, Birgit

1998-01-01

General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model the beha......General equilibrium theory constitutes a sound basis for the discussion of policy issues if firms do not have market power. However, if firms influence prices strategically, the concept of profits loses its meaning due to the price normalization problem. Hence, it is unclear how to model...... the behavior of oligopolistic firms. In order to provide a conceptual foundation for the analysis of policy issues in the case of imperfect competition, we discuss ways to formulate the objective of a strategic firm. In particular, we investigate the concept of real wealth maximization that is based on profits...

Modelling and Analysing Access Control Policies in XACML 3.0

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramli, Carroline Dewi Puspa Kencana

(c.f. GM03,Mos05,Ris13) and manual analysis of the overall effect and consequences of a large XACML policy set is a very daunting and time-consuming task. In this thesis we address the problem of understanding the semantics of access control policy language XACML, in particular XACML version 3.0....... The main focus of this thesis is modelling and analysing access control policies in XACML 3.0. There are two main contributions in this thesis. First, we study and formalise XACML 3.0, in particular the Policy Decision Point (PDP). The concrete syntax of XACML is based on the XML format, while its standard...... semantics is described normatively using natural language. The use of English text in standardisation leads to the risk of misinterpretation and ambiguity. In order to avoid this drawback, we define an abstract syntax of XACML 3.0 and a formal XACML semantics. Second, we propose a logic-based XACML analysis...

Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

2013-01-01

Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

Exploratory Modeling and the use of Simulation for Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis Steven C. Barikes Prepared for the United States Army R A N D Approved for public release; distribution...Research, Vol. 39, No. 3, May-June 1991, pp. 355-365. Lipton, Richard J ., Thomas G. Marr, and J . Douglas Welsh, "Computational Approaches to Discovering...the Visual Cortex, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1985. / -30- Rothenberg, J ., N. Z. Shapiro, and C. Hefley, "A Propagative’ Approach to Sensitivity

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Brilé; Böhmelt, Tobias; Ward, Hugh

2017-11-01

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public’s environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states.

Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning in Phoenix

Science.gov (United States)

Gober, P.; Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Chow, W.

2016-12-01

There is increasing interest in using the results of water models for long-term planning and policy analysis. Achieving this goal requires more effective integration of human dimensions into water modeling and a paradigm shift in the way models are developed and used. A user-defined focus argues in favor of models that are designed to foster public debate and engagement about the difficult trade-offs that are inevitable in managing complex water systems. These models also emphasize decision making under uncertainty and anticipatory planning, and are developed through a collaborative and iterative process. This paper demonstrates the use of anticipatory modeling for long-term drought planning in Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies may not be sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer levels and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies can return the region to sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental change.

Cleanliness Policy Implementation: Evaluating Retribution Model to Rise Public Satisfaction

Science.gov (United States)

Dailiati, Surya; Hernimawati; Prihati; Chintia Utami, Bunga

2018-05-01

This research is based on the principal issues concerning the evaluation of cleanliness retribution policy which has not been optimally be able to improve the Local Revenue of Pekanbaru City and has not improved the cleanliness of Pekanbaru City. It was estimated to be caused by the performance of Garden and Sanitation Department are not in accordance with the requirement of society of Pekanbaru City. The research method used in this study is a mixed method with sequential exploratory strategy. The data collection used are observation, interview and documentation for qualitative research as well as questionnaires for quantitative research. The collected data were analyzed with interactive model of Miles and Huberman for qualitative research and multiple regression analysis for quantitative research. The research result indicated that the model of cleanliness policy implementation that can increase of PAD Pekanbaru City and be able to improve people’s satisfaction divided into two (2) which are the evaluation model and the society satisfaction model. The evaluation model influence by criteria/variable of effectiveness, efficiency, adequacy, equity, responsiveness, and appropriateness, while the society satisfaction model influence by variables of society satisfaction, intentions, goals, plans, programs, and appropriateness of cleanliness retribution collection policy.

Cluster Analysis as an Analytical Tool of Population Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana Mikhaylovna Shubat

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The predicted negative trends in Russian demography (falling birth rates, population decline actualize the need to strengthen measures of family and population policy. Our research purpose is to identify groups of Russian regions with similar characteristics in the family sphere using cluster analysis. The findings should make an important contribution to the field of family policy. We used hierarchical cluster analysis based on the Ward method and the Euclidean distance for segmentation of Russian regions. Clustering is based on four variables, which allowed assessing the family institution in the region. The authors used the data of Federal State Statistics Service from 2010 to 2015. Clustering and profiling of each segment has allowed forming a model of Russian regions depending on the features of the family institution in these regions. The authors revealed four clusters grouping regions with similar problems in the family sphere. This segmentation makes it possible to develop the most relevant family policy measures in each group of regions. Thus, the analysis has shown a high degree of differentiation of the family institution in the regions. This suggests that a unified approach to population problems’ solving is far from being effective. To achieve greater results in the implementation of family policy, a differentiated approach is needed. Methods of multidimensional data classification can be successfully applied as a relevant analytical toolkit. Further research could develop the adaptation of multidimensional classification methods to the analysis of the population problems in Russian regions. In particular, the algorithms of nonparametric cluster analysis may be of relevance in future studies.

Policy integration, coherence and governance in Dutch climate policy : a multi-level analysis of mitigation and adoption policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bommel, van S.; Kuindersma, W.

2008-01-01

This report assesses the integration of climate policy in Dutch public policy at the national, regional, local and area level. The national analysis focuses on the horizontal integration of climate policy in national government programmes, adaptation and mitigation strategies and specific policy

APPLICATION OF THE HOWARD'S MODEL ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR IN BUYING INSURANCE POLICY

OpenAIRE

Martje Paais; Semuel Souhoka

2017-01-01

This research intends to predict factors that drive consumer to buy insurance policy, based on consumer behavior model by Howard. In main variable used is buying decision. In addition, this study also includes information, brand image, confidence and attitude as the control variables. The analysis units are exclusive policy insured in Malang region. The data was collected using questionnaire. The t-test in simple regression models are used to test hypotheses. The research finds about: first, ...

School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

2016-01-01

Background: Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Methods: Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in…

An Affinity-to-Commons Model of Public Support For Environmental Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merrill, Ryan; Sintov, Nicole

2016-01-01

As atmospheric CO_2 continues to rise above 450 PPM, policymakers struggle with uncertainty concerning predictors of citizen support for environmental energy policies (EEPs) and preferences for their design, topics which have received limited attention in empirical literature. We present an original model of policy support based on citizens’ affinity-to-commons: pathways by which individuals enjoy natural public goods that in turn shape preferences between alternative policy mechanisms. We evaluate this model using a survey of southern California electricity customers, with results indicating the model's utility in predicting public support of EEP. Stronger community ties are associated with preferences for “pull”-type subsidies, whereas stronger connections to natural commons are linked to support for both “pull” and “push”-type sanctions. Findings have implications for coalition building as advocates may engender support for green energy policy by framing sanctions as protecting natural commons, and framing subsidies either in this same way and/or as producing benefits for communities. - Highlights: • A commons-oriented model of citizen support for environmental energy policy is proposed (Thaler (2012)). • A factor analysis identifies local tax shifts, green subsidies, and energy taxes (Schultz et al. (1995)). • Community connections predict support for policies with employing subsidies (Sabatier (2006)). • Connection to nature predicts support for policies using both sanctions and subsidies. (Stern et al. (1999)).

A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Alyamani, Talal M.

Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

Science.gov (United States)

Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

2016-10-01

Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

A techno-economic analysis of EU renewable electricity policy pathways in 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Río, Pablo del; Resch, Gustav; Ortner, Andre; Liebmann, Lukas; Busch, Sebastian; Panzer, Christian

2017-01-01

The aim of this paper is to assess several pathways of a harmonised European policy framework for supporting renewable electricity (RES-E) in a 2030 horizon according to different criteria. The pathways combine two main dimensions: degrees of harmonisation and instruments and design elements. A quantitative model-based analysis with the Green-X model is provided. The results of the simulations show that there are small differences between the evaluated cases regarding effectiveness. All the policy pathways score similarly with respect to RES-E deployment, i.e., with different degrees of harmonisation and whether using a feed-in tariff, a feed-in premium, a quota system with banding or a quota without banding scheme. In contrast, the policy costs clearly differ across the pathways, but the differences can mostly be attributed to the instruments rather than to the degrees of harmonisation. This is also the case with other criteria (static and dynamic efficiency and the socioeconomic and environmental benefits in terms of CO2 emissions and fossil fuels avoided). Both the degree of harmonisation and the choice of instrument influence the distribution of support costs across countries. Finally, our findings suggest that keeping strengthened national support leads to similar results to other policy pathways. - Highlights: • Pathways of a harmonised European policy framework for renewable electricity in 2030. • Two main dimensions: degrees of harmonisation and instruments. • A quantitative model-based analysis based on the Green-X model. • Small differences between the pathways regarding the effectiveness criterion. • Important differences between pathways regarding other assessment criteria.

Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Vesna

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

Long term modelling in a second rank world: application to climate policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crassous, R.

2008-11-01

This research aims at the identification of the dissatisfaction reasons with respect to the existing climate models, at the design of an innovating modelling architecture which would respond to these dissatisfactions, and at proposing climate policy assessment pathways. The authors gives a critique assessment of the modelling activity within the field of climate policies, outlines the fact that the large number and the scattering of existing long term scenarios hides a weak control of uncertainties and of the inner consistency of the produced paths, as well as the very low number of modelling paradigms. After a deepened analysis of modelling practices, the author presents the IMACLIM-R modelling architecture which is presented on a world scale and includes 12 areas and 12 sectors, and allows the simulation of evolutions by 2050, and even 2100, with a one-year time step. The author describes a scenario without any climate policy, highlights reassessment possibilities for economical trajectories which would allow greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation on a long term basis through the application of IMACLIM-R innovations. He outlines adjustment and refinement possibilities for climate policies which would robustly limit the transition cost risks

Information Security Policy Modeling for Network Security Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitry Sergeevich Chernyavskiy

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Policy management for network security systems (NSSs is one of the most topical issues of network security management. Incorrect configurations of NSSs lead to system outages and appearance of vulnerabilities. Moreover, policy management process is a time-consuming task, which includes significant amount of manual work. These factors reduce efficiency of NSSs’ utilization. The paper discusses peculiarities of policy management process and existing approaches to policy modeling, presents a model aimed to formalize policies for NSSs independently on NSSs’ platforms and select the most effective NSSs for implementation of the policies.

Random variables in forest policy: A systematic sensitivity analysis using CGE models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alavalapati, J.R.R.

1999-01-01

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are extensively used to simulate economic impacts of forest policies. Parameter values used in these models often play a central role in their outcome. Since econometric studies and best guesses are the main sources of these parameters, some randomness exists about the 'true' values of these parameters. Failure to incorporate this randomness into these models may limit the degree of confidence in the validity of the results. In this study, we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to assess the economic impacts of: 1) a 1 % increase in tax on Canadian lumber and wood products exports to the United States (US), and 2) a 1% decrease in technical change in the lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors of the US and Canada. We achieve this task by using an aggregated version of global trade model developed by Hertel (1997) and the automated SSA procedure developed by Arndt and Pearson (1996). The estimated means and standard deviations suggest that certain impacts are more likely than others. For example, an increase in export tax is likely to cause a decrease in Canadian income, while an increase in US income is unlikely. On the other hand, a decrease in US welfare is likely, while an increase in Canadian welfare is unlikely, in response to an increase in tax. It is likely that income and welfare both fall in Canada and the US in response to a decrease in the technical change in lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors 21 refs, 1 fig, 5 tabs

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

OpenAIRE

Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-01-01

This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel) and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco). We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate ...

Representations of women and drug use in policy: A critical policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Natalie; Bull, Melissa

2018-06-01

Contemporary research in the drugs field has demonstrated a number of gender differences in patterns and experiences of substance use, and the design and provision of gender-responsive interventions has been identified as an important policy issue. Consequently, whether and how domestic drug policies attend to women and gender issues is an important question for investigation. This article presents a policy audit and critical analysis of Australian national and state and territory policy documents. It identifies and discusses two key styles of problematisation of women's drug use in policy: 1) drug use and its effect on women's reproductive role (including a focus on pregnant women and women who are mothers), and 2) drug use and its relationship to women's vulnerability to harm (including violent and sexual victimisation, trauma, and mental health issues). Whilst these are important areas for policy to address, we argue that such representations of women who use drugs tend to reinforce particular understandings of women and drug use, while at the same time contributing to areas of 'policy silence' or neglect. In particular, the policy documents analysed are largely silent about the harm reduction needs of all women, as well as the needs of women who are not mothers, young women, older women, transwomen or other women deemed to be outside of dominant normative reproductive discourse. This analysis is important because understanding how women's drug use is problematised and identifying areas of policy silence provides a foundation for redressing gaps in policy, and for assessing the likely effectiveness of current and future policy approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PRACTICES OF THE STATE YOUTH POLICY IN THE MODERN WORLD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Samohvalov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this article the author examines a number of foreign cases of practical realization of state youth policy for example the USA, Germany and the Republic of Kazakhstan. The choice of these cases is due to the fact that these countries have an extensive practice of state youth policy. The second factor in the choice of case studies is the fundamental difference between the political systems of countries and as a consequence of the institutional arrangements and the technological features of established models of state youth policy. And fi nally, the third factor is that these States represent different political and cultural traditions. These differences between the traditions have an impact on the diversity of the state youth policy (as the US are a classic example of Western «pluralist» system of youth policy; Germany – West European model of youth policy; Kazakhstan is a bright representative of an effective model of youth policy in the former Soviet Union. Special attention is given to General and specifi c features identified on the basis of comparative analysis, the study of foreign models of youth policy, as well as possible their application in the process of realization of the state youth policy of the Russian Federation.

Systematic Analysis and Innovation for Development Policies of Beijing Seed Industry at Transformation Stage

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qing LIU; Fengjun LU; Guozhi ZHANG; Lijiao XIE

2015-01-01

At transformation stage,seed Industry is not only a fundamental and strategic industry during the construction of World City,but also part of urban and modern agriculture in Beijing. Based on the analysis of the theory of industrial economics and system theory,the article constructs the seed industry policy analysis model,systematically analyzes the support points of national level and the city of Beijing seed industry policy,and studies policy input,mechanism,output and effects by way of systematic analysis,as well as proposes polices and suggestions on promotion of development for Beijing seed industry and on construction of new seed industry from talent incentive,platform construction,seed trading and enterprise cultivation.

Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

1996-01-01

As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

Determining the privacy policy deficiencies of health ICT applications through semi-formal modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Croll, Peter R

2011-02-01

To ensure that patient confidentiality is securely maintained, health ICT applications that contain sensitive personal information demand comprehensive privacy policies. Determining the adequacy of these policies to meet legal conformity together with clinical users and patient expectation is demanding in practice. Organisations and agencies looking to analyse their Privacy and Security policies can benefit from guidance provided by outside entities such as the Privacy Office of their State or Government together with law firms and ICT specialists. The advice given is not uniform and often open to different interpretations. Of greater concern is the possibility of overlooking any important aspects that later result in a data breach. Based on three case studies, this paper considers whether a more formal approach to privacy analysis could be taken that would help identify the full coverage of a Privacy Impact Analysis and determine the deficiencies with an organisation's current policies and approach. A diagrammatic model showing the relationships between Confidentiality, Privacy, Trust, Security and Safety is introduced. First the validity of this model is determined by mapping it against the real-world case studies taken from three healthcare services that depend on ICT. Then, by using software engineering methods, a formal mapping of the relationships is undertaken to identify a full set of policies needed to satisfy the model. How effective this approach may prove as a generic method for deriving a comprehensive set of policies in health ICT applications is finally discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

41 CFR 105-53.141 - Office of Policy Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Management Regulations System (Continued) GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION 53-STATEMENT OF ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTIONS Central Offices § 105-53.141 Office of Policy Analysis. The Office of Policy Analysis, headed by..., independent, objective information concerning management policies and programs, and technical and analytical...

Welfare family policies and gender earnings inequality: A cross-national comparative analysis

OpenAIRE

Mandel, Hadas; Semyonov, Moshe

2003-01-01

The present study examines whether and to what extent welfare-family policies are likely to affect earnings inequality between economically active men and women. Using hierarchical linear models, we combine individual-level variables (obtained from the Luxembourg Income Study) with country level data (obtained from secondary sources) to evaluate the net effects of welfare family policies on gender earnings inequality across 20 industrialized countries. The analysis reveals that net of individ...

A dynamic model of soil salinity and drainage generation in irrigated agriculture: A framework for policy analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dinar, Ariel; Aillery, Marcel P.; Moore, Michael R.

1993-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of irrigated agriculture that accounts for drainage generation and salinity accumulation. Critical model relationships involving crop production, soil salinity, and irrigation drainage are based on newly estimated functions derived from lysimeter field tests. The model allocates land and water inputs over time based on an intertemporal profit maximization objective function and soil salinity accumulation process. The model is applied to conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where environmental degradation from irrigation drainage has become a policy issue. Findings indicate that in the absence of regulation, drainage volumes increase over time before reaching a steady state as increased quantities of water are allocated to leaching soil salts. The model is used to evaluate alternative drainage abatement scenarios involving drainage quotas and taxes, water supply quotas and taxes, and irrigation technology subsidies. In our example, direct drainage policies are more cost-effective in reducing drainage than policies operating indirectly through surface water use, although differences in cost efficiency are relatively small. In some cases, efforts to control drainage may result in increased soil salinity accumulation, with implications for long-term cropland productivity. While policy adjustments may alter the direction and duration of convergence to a steady state, findings suggest that a dynamic model specification may not be necessary due to rapid convergence to a comon steady state under selected scenarios.

Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

1986-12-01

Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

Essays on environmental policy analysis: Computable general equilibrium approaches applied to Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, M.

2001-01-01

This thesis consists of three essays within the field of applied environmental economics, with the common basic aim of analyzing effects of Swedish environmental policy. Starting out from Swedish environmental goals, the thesis assesses a range of policy-related questions. The objective is to quantify policy outcomes by constructing and applying numerical models especially designed for environmental policy analysis. Static and dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium models are developed in order to analyze the following issues. The costs and benefits of a domestic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) tax reform. Special attention is given to how these costs and benefits depend on the structure of the tax system and, furthermore, how they depend on policy-induced changes in 'secondary' pollutants. The effects of allowing for emission permit trading through time when the domestic long-term domestic environmental goal is specified in CO 2 stock terms. The effects on long-term projected economic growth and welfare that are due to damages from emission flow and accumulation of 'local' pollutants (nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide), as well as the outcome of environmental policy when costs and benefits are considered in an integrated environmental-economic framework

Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

2017-12-01

Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of

Freshwater Ecosystem Services in Mining Regions: Modelling Options for Policy Development Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mercado-Garcia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystem services (ES approach offers an integrated perspective of social-ecological systems, suitable for holistic assessments of mining impacts. Yet for ES models to be policy-relevant, methodological consensus in mining contexts is needed. We review articles assessing ES in mining areas focusing on freshwater components and policy support potential. Twenty-six articles were analysed concerning (i methodological complexity (data types, number of parameters, processes and ecosystem–human integration level and (ii potential applicability for policy development (communication of uncertainties, scenario simulation, stakeholder participation and management recommendations. Articles illustrate mining impacts on ES through valuation exercises mostly. However, the lack of ground- and surface-water measurements, as well as insufficient representation of the connectivity among soil, water and humans, leave room for improvements. Inclusion of mining-specific environmental stressors models, increasing resolution of topographies, determination of baseline ES patterns and inclusion of multi-stakeholder perspectives are advantageous for policy support. We argue that achieving more holistic assessments exhorts practitioners to aim for high social-ecological connectivity using mechanistic models where possible and using inductive methods only where necessary. Due to data constraints, cause–effect networks might be the most feasible and best solution. Thus, a policy-oriented framework is proposed, in which data science is directed to environmental modelling for analysis of mining impacts on water ES.

A Policy Language for Modelling Recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Abou El Kalam, Anas; Balbiani, Philippe

While current and emergent applications become more and more complex, most of existing security policies and models only consider a yes/no response to the access requests. Consequently, modelling, formalizing and implementing permissions, obligations and prohibitions do not cover the richness of all the possible scenarios. In fact, several applications have access rules with the recommendation access modality. In this paper we focus on the problem of formalizing security policies with recommendation needs. The aim is to provide a generic domain-independent formal system for modelling not only permissions, prohibitions and obligations, but also recommendations. In this respect, we present our logic-based language, the semantics, the truth conditions, our axiomatic as well as inference rules. We also give a representative use case with our specification of recommendation requirements. Finally, we explain how our logical framework could be used to query the security policy and to check its consistency.

Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

Science.gov (United States)

The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

An Analysis of Reconstituted Fluid Milk Pricing Policy

OpenAIRE

Glen D. Whipple

1983-01-01

This analysis suggests that alteration of the reconstituted fluid milk pricing provisions of federal and state milk market orders would have a substantial impact on market equilibrium. A reactive programming model of the U.S. milk market was used to simulate the effects of altered reconstituted fluid milk pricing policy. The solutions indicate that reconstituted fluid milk, as a lower cost alternative to fresh fluid milk, would make up a substantial portion of the fluid milk consumption in so...

Advancing team-based primary health care: a comparative analysis of policies in western Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Esther; Mallinson, Sara; Misfeldt, Renee; Boakye, Omenaa; Nasmith, Louise; Wong, Sabrina T

2017-07-17

We analyzed and compared primary health care (PHC) policies in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to understand how they inform the design and implementation of team-based primary health care service delivery. The goal was to develop policy imperatives that can advance team-based PHC in Canada. We conducted comparative case studies (n = 3). The policy analysis included: Context review: We reviewed relevant information (2007 to 2014) from databases and websites. Policy review and comparative analysis: We compared and contrasted publically available PHC policies. Key informant interviews: Key informants (n = 30) validated narratives prepared from the comparative analysis by offering contextual information on potential policy imperatives. Advisory group and roundtable: An expert advisory group guided this work and a key stakeholder roundtable event guided prioritization of policy imperatives. The concept of team-based PHC varies widely across and within the three provinces. We noted policy gaps related to team configuration, leadership, scope of practice, role clarity and financing of team-based care; few policies speak explicitly to monitoring and evaluation of team-based PHC. We prioritized four policy imperatives: (1) alignment of goals and policies at different system levels; (2) investment of resources for system change; (3) compensation models for all members of the team; and (4) accountability through collaborative practice metrics. Policies supporting team-based PHC have been slow to emerge, lacking a systematic and coordinated approach. Greater alignment with specific consideration of financing, reimbursement, implementation mechanisms and performance monitoring could accelerate systemic transformation by removing some well-known barriers to team-based care.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, David T; Boyle, Raymond G; Abrams, David B

2012-11-01

Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota's smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Models of policy-making and their relevance for drug research.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritter, Alison; Bammer, Gabriele

2010-07-01

Researchers are often frustrated by their inability to influence policy. We describe models of policy-making to provide new insights and a more realistic assessment of research impacts on policy. We describe five prominent models of policy-making and illustrate them with examples from the alcohol and drugs field, before drawing lessons for researchers. Policy-making is a complex and messy process, with different models describing different elements. We start with the incrementalist model, which highlights small amendments to policy, as occurs in school-based drug education. A technical/rational approach then outlines the key steps in a policy process from identification of problems and their causes, through to examination and choice of response options, and subsequent implementation and evaluation. There is a clear role for research, as we illustrate with the introduction of new medications, but this model largely ignores the dominant political aspects of policy-making. Such political aspects include the influence of interest groups, and we describe models about power and pressure groups, as well as advocacy coalitions, and the challenges they pose for researchers. These are illustrated with reference to the alcohol industry, and interest group conflicts in establishing a Medically Supervised Injecting Centre. Finally, we describe the multiple streams framework, which alerts researchers to 'windows of opportunity', and we show how these were effectively exploited in policy for cannabis law reform in Western Australia. Understanding models of policy-making can help researchers maximise the uptake of their work and advance evidence-informed policy.

Comparative analysis of evaluation techniques for transport policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Browne, David; Ryan, Lisa

2011-01-01

The objective of this paper is to examine and compare the use of a number of policy evaluation tools, which can be used to measure the impact of transport policies and programmes as part of a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) or sustainability appraisal. The evaluation tools that were examined include cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). It was concluded that both CEA and CBA are useful for estimating the costs and/or benefits associated with transport policies but are constrained by the difficulty in quantifying non-market impacts and monetising total costs and benefits. Furthermore, CEA is limited to identifying the most 'cost-effective policy' for achieving a single, narrowly defined objective, usually greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and is, therefore, not suitable for evaluating policy options with ancillary costs or a variety of potential benefits. Thus, CBA or CEA evaluation should be complemented by a complete environmental and socio-economic impact assessment approach such as MCDA. This method allows for participatory analysis and qualitative assessment but is subject to caveats such as subjectivity and value-laden judgments.

Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

2015-07-09

The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Labandeira, Xavier [Facultade de CC. Economicas, University of Vigo, 36310 Vigo (Spain); Labeaga, Jose M. [Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria 378, 28035 Madrid (Spain); Rodriguez, Miguel [Facultade de CC. Empresariais e Turismo, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense (Spain)

2009-12-15

Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labandeira, Xavier; Labeaga, Jose M.; Rodriguez, Miguel

2009-01-01

Most public policies, particularly those in the energy sphere, have not only efficiency but also distributional effects. However, there is a trade-off between modelling approaches suitable for calculating those impacts on the economy. For the former most of the studies have been conducted with general equilibrium models, whereas partial equilibrium models represent the main approach for distributional analysis. This paper proposes a methodology to simultaneously carry out an analysis of the distributional and efficiency consequences of changes in energy taxation. In order to do so, we have integrated a microeconomic household demand model and a computable general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy. We illustrate the advantages of this approach by simulating a revenue-neutral reform in Spanish indirect taxation, with a large increase of energy taxes that serve an environmental purpose. The results show that the reforms bring about significant efficiency and distributional effects, in some cases counterintuitive, and demonstrate the academic and social utility of this approximation. (author)

Impulse-response analysis of monetary policy – Visegád group countries case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kateřina Myšková

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4. Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis- data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

Credible baseline analysis for multi-model public policy studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parikh, S.C.; Gass, S.I.

1981-01-01

The nature of public decision-making and resource allocation is such that many complex interactions can best be examined and understood by quantitative analysis. Most organizations do not possess the totality of models and needed analytical skills to perform detailed and systematic quantitative analysis. Hence, the need for coordinated, multi-organization studies that support public decision-making has grown in recent years. This trend is expected not only to continue, but to increase. This paper describes the authors' views on the process of multi-model analysis based on their participation in an analytical exercise, the ORNL/MITRE Study. One of the authors was the exercise coordinator. During the study, the authors were concerned with the issue of measuring and conveying credibility of the analysis. This work led them to identify several key determinants, described in this paper, that could be used to develop a rating of credibility.

A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, Marvin J.; Bertoldi, Paolo

2015-01-01

This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes. - Highlights: • Impact analysis of European Union energy efficiency policy. • Harmonization of top-down energy consumption and bottom-up energy efficiency indicators. • Fixed effects models for Member States for household and manufacturing sectors and combined electricity and natural gas usage. • EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 are estimated to have saved 1136 Petajoules. • Energy savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 are 5.6 percent of 2011 combined electricity and natural gas usage.

Green Purchasing Behavior Analysis of Government Policy About Paid Plastic Bags

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Khoiruman

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This research will be conducted to know: 1 The influence of green perceived value to consumer green trust to use plastic bag after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. 2 The influence of green perceived risk to consumer green trust to use plastic bag after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. 3 The effect of green trust on green purchase behavior of consumers to use plastic bags after the policy of using plastic bag paid at modern retail store in Surakarta. The study was conducted in modern retail stores (Alfamart, Indomart and Superindo in Surakarta using 200 respondents who shop at the modern retail store. A model that can be used to measure green purchasing behavior in the use of paid plastic bags using four interrelated variables: green perceived value, green perceived risk, green trust and green purchasing. Data analysis using Structural Equation Model (SEM. The result of analysis and discussion showed that green perceived value have positive and significant effect to green trust, green trust has positive effect on green purchasing, but green perceived risk has no significant effect to green trust.

Improving Safe Sleep Modeling in the Hospital through Policy Implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Heitmann, Rachel; Nilles, Ester K; Jeans, Ashley; Moreland, Jackie; Clarke, Chris; McDonald, Morgan F; Warren, Michael D

2017-11-01

Introduction Sleep-related infant deaths are major contributors to Tennessee's high infant mortality rate. The purpose of this initiative was to evaluate the impact of policy-based efforts to improve modeling of safe sleep practices by health care providers in hospital settings across Tennessee. Methods Safe sleep policies were developed and implemented at 71 hospitals in Tennessee. Policies, at minimum, were required to address staff training on the American Academy of Pediatrics' safe sleep recommendations, correct modeling of infant safe sleep practices, and parent education. Hospital data on process measures related to training and results of crib audits were compiled for analysis. Results The overall observance of infants who were found with any risk factors for unsafe sleep decreased 45.6% (p ≤ 0.001) from the first crib audit to the last crib audit. Significant decreases were noted for specific risk factors, including infants found asleep not on their back, with a toy or object in the crib, and not sleeping in a crib. Significant improvements were observed at hospitals where printed materials or video were utilized for training staff compared to face-to-face training. Discussion Statewide implementation of the hospital policy intervention resulted in significant reductions in infants found in unsafe sleep situations. The most common risk factors for sleep-related infant deaths can be modeled in hospitals. This effort has the potential to reduce sleep-related infant deaths and ultimately infant mortality.

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Evaluation and Policy Analysis: A Communicative Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia Wallat

1997-07-01

Full Text Available A major challenge for the next generation of students of human development is to help shape the paradigms by which we analyze and evaluate public policies for children and families. Advocates of building research and policy connections point to health care and stress experiences across home, school, and community as critical policy issues that expand the scope of contexts and outcomes studied. At a minimum, development researchers and practitioners will need to be well versed in available methods of inquiry; they will need to be "methodologically multilingual" when conducting evaluation and policy analysis, producing reports, and reporting their interpretations to consumer and policy audiences. This article suggests how traditional approaches to policy inquiry can be reconsidered in light of these research inquiry and communicative skills needed by all policy researchers. A fifteen year review of both policy and discourse processes research is presented to suggest ways to conduct policy studies within a communicative framework.

Validity of information security policy models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joshua Onome Imoniana

Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

2013-01-01

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

Control of Groundwater Pollution from Animal Feeding Operations: A Farm-Level Dynamic Model for Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Baerenklau, K.

2012-12-01

Consolidation in livestock production generates higher farm incomes due to economies of scale, but it also brings waste disposal problems. Over-application of animal waste on adjacent land produces adverse environmental and health effects, including groundwater nitrate pollution. The situation is particularly noticeable in California. In respond to this increasingly severe problem, EPA published a type of command-and-control regulation for concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) in 2003. The key component of the regulation is its nutrient management plans (NMPs), which intend to limit the land application rates of animal waste. Although previous studies provide a full perspective on potential economic impacts for CAFOs to meet nutrient standards, their models are static and fail to reflect changes in management practices other than spreading manure on additional land and changing cropping patterns. We develop a dynamic environmental-economic modeling framework for representative CAFOs. The framework incorporates four models (i.e., animal model, crop model, hydrologic model, and economic model) that include various components such as herd management, manure handling system, crop rotation, water sources, irrigation system, waste disposal options, and pollutant emissions. We also include the dynamics of soil characteristics in the rootzone as well as the spatial heterogeneity of the irrigation system. The operator maximizes discounted total farm profit over multiple periods subject to environmental regulations. Decision rules from the dynamic optimization problem demonstrate best management practices for CAFOs to improve their economic and environmental performance. Results from policy simulations suggest that direct quantity restrictions of emission or incentive-based emission policies are much more cost-effective than the standard approach of limiting the amount of animal waste that may be applied to fields (as shown in the figure below); reason being

Study on measuring analysis for estimating effect of energy saving policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Joong Ku; Park, Jeong Soon [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-12-01

Since the study on measuring analysis for estimating effect of energy saving policy is too broad to implement all industries, so it limited its study only on manufacturing industry. This study is concentrated on its effort to measure energy saving using energy saving model by putting energy saving policy as an input and regarding its result as energy saving. It used B/C theory for positive analysis methodology and the result of analysis is investment effect on manufacturing industry. The total cost invested on manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1996 was 5,871 billion won based on constant cost in 1990, and the energy saving cost directly acquired from it reached 1,534.5 billion won based on constant cost in 1990, so B/C rate reached 2.56. Particularly, if you separated the amount supported by the government policy, energy saving support cost reached 3,904.2 billion won (based on constant cost in 1990) and the total benefit was 10,146.4 billion won (based on constant cost in 1990) by adding saving cost 9,997.9 billion won and environmental improvement effect 223.2 billion won. (author). 51 refs., 17 figs., 35 tabs.

Utility of four public-policy models as applied to the case study of nuclear materials transportation through the Lehigh Valley

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zurat, G.J.

1982-01-01

This dissertation assesses four public-policy models by utilizing the case-study approach and personal interviews with the major participants in the public-policy process of Northampton County, Pennsylvania. Northampton County is part of the metropolitan region encompassing Lehigh and Northampton Counties, PA. It is known as the Lehigh Valley which is situated in eastern Pennsylvania. The hypotheses tested in this dissertation are: (1) individual participants have articulated policy models as their frame of reference which guides them in understanding the public policy process, and (2) there is no one best policy model to explain the public-policy process, but the combination of various policy models may improve the policy analysts' understanding of public policy. Results indicate that the major participants have articulated policy models as their frame of reference, but a polarized view of policy models exists for the participants. The second hypothesis was only partially confirmed since the combination of one or more models did not resolve the group/elite policy dilemma of the practitioners. By utilizing stratification theory in the analysis, the group versus elite conflict is clarified and the policy formation phase of the public policy process is understood with respect to the Northamton County Council

Biofuel supply chain, market, and policy analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Leilei

Renewable fuel is receiving an increasing attention as a substitute for fossil based energy. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has employed increasing effort on promoting the advanced biofuel productions. Although the advanced biofuel remains at its early stage, it is expected to play an important role in climate policy in the future in the transportation sector. This dissertation studies the emerging biofuel supply chain and markets by analyzing the production cost, and the outcomes of the biofuel market, including blended fuel market price and quantity, biofuel contract price and quantity, profitability of each stakeholder (farmers, biofuel producers, biofuel blenders) in the market. I also address government policy impacts on the emerging biofuel market. The dissertation is composed with three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the supply chain of emerging biofuel industry. Two optimization-based models are built to determine the number of facilities to deploy, facility locations, facility capacities, and operational planning within facilities. Cost analyses have been conducted under a variety of biofuel demand scenarios. It is my intention that this model will shed light on biofuel supply chain design considering operational planning under uncertain demand situations. The second part of the dissertation work focuses on analyzing the interaction between the key stakeholders along the supply chain. A bottom-up equilibrium model is built for the emerging biofuel market to study the competition in the advanced biofuel market, explicitly formulating the interactions between farmers, biofuel producers, blenders, and consumers. The model simulates the profit maximization of multiple market entities by incorporating their competitive decisions in farmers' land allocation, biomass transportation, biofuel production, and biofuel blending. As such, the equilibrium model is capable of and appropriate for policy analysis, especially for those policies

Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broeren, M.L.M.; Saygin, D.; Patel, M.K.

2014-01-01

The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions for the period 2010–2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO 2 emissions by 5–15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals. - Highlights: • We develop a global cost-driven forecasting model for the basic chemical sector. • We study regional production, energy-efficient technology, emissions and policies. • Between 2010 and 2030, 60% of new chemicals capacity is built in non-OECD regions. • Global CO 2 emissions rise by 50%, but climate policies may limit this to 30–40%. • Measures beyond energy efficiency are needed to prevent increasing CO 2 emissions

Policy harmonized approach for the EU agricultural sector modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. SALPUTRA

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Policy harmonized (PH approach allows for the quantitative assessment of the impact of various elements of EU CAP direct support schemes, where the production effects of direct payments are accounted through reaction prices formed by producer price and policy price add-ons. Using the AGMEMOD model the impacts of two possible EU agricultural policy scenarios upon beef production have been analysed – full decoupling with a switch from historical to regional Single Payment scheme or alternatively with re-distribution of country direct payment envelopes via introduction of EU-wide flat area payment. The PH approach, by systematizing and harmonizing the management and use of policy data, ensures that projected differential policy impacts arising from changes in common EU policies reflect the likely actual differential impact as opposed to differences in how “common” policies are implemented within analytical models. In the second section of the paper the AGMEMOD model’s structure is explained. The policy harmonized evaluation method is presented in the third section. Results from an application of the PH approach are presented and discussed in the paper’s penultimate section, while section 5 concludes.;

Policy-Making Theory as an Analytical Framework in Policy Analysis: Implications for Research Design and Professional Advocacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldon, Michael R

2016-01-01

Policy studies are a recent addition to the American Physical Therapy Association's Research Agenda and are critical to our understanding of various federal, state, local, and organizational policies on the provision of physical therapist services across the continuum of care. Policy analyses that help to advance the profession's various policy agendas will require relevant theoretical frameworks to be credible. The purpose of this perspective article is to: (1) demonstrate the use of a policy-making theory as an analytical framework in a policy analysis and (2) discuss how sound policy analysis can assist physical therapists in becoming more effective change agents, policy advocates, and partners with other relevant stakeholder groups. An exploratory study of state agency policy responses to address work-related musculoskeletal disorders is provided as a contemporary example to illustrate key points and to demonstrate the importance of selecting a relevant analytical framework based on the context of the policy issue under investigation. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

A structural dynamic factor model for the effects of monetary policy estimated by the EM algorithm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse

This paper applies the maximum likelihood based EM algorithm to a large-dimensional factor analysis of US monetary policy. Specifically, economy-wide effects of shocks to the US federal funds rate are estimated in a structural dynamic factor model in which 100+ US macroeconomic and financial time...... series are driven by the joint dynamics of the federal funds rate and a few correlated dynamic factors. This paper contains a number of methodological contributions to the existing literature on data-rich monetary policy analysis. Firstly, the identification scheme allows for correlated factor dynamics...... as opposed to the orthogonal factors resulting from the popular principal component approach to structural factor models. Correlated factors are economically more sensible and important for a richer monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, I consider both static factor loadings as well as dynamic...

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S; Meza, Rafael

2016-05-01

Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs). The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014. SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies. Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo’s business cycle model and its implications for monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Kallåk Anundsen , André; Sigurd Holmsen Krogh, Tord; Nymoen, Ragnar; Vislie, Jon

2011-01-01

This paper presents the business cycle model that Trygve Haavelmo developed as part of his research program in macroeconomic and monetary theory. Driven by a mismatch between the marginal return to capital and the rate of return required by capital owners, this model generates endogenous cycles. The theory leads to a distinct analysis of the scope and limitations of monetary policy. A main message of the model is that care should be taken when conducting 'autonomous' monetary policy and that ...

Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

OpenAIRE

Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

2016-01-01

To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

Institutional analysis for energy policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morris, F.A.; Cole, R.J.

1980-07-01

This report summarizes principles, techniques, and other information for doing institutional analyses in the area of energy policy. The report was prepared to support DOE's Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) program. RIIA identifies environmental, health, safety, socioeconomic, and institutional issues that could accompany hypothetical future scenarios for energy consumption and production on a regional basis. Chapter 1 provides some theoretical grounding in institutional analysis. Chapter 2 provides information on constructing institutional maps of the processes for bringing on line energy technologies and facilities contemplated in RIIA scenarios. Chapter 3 assesses the institutional constraints, opportunities, and impacts that affect whether these technologies and facilities would in fact be developed. Chapters 4 and 5 show how institutional analysis can support use of exercises such as RIIA in planning institutional change and making energy policy choices.

Intersectional policy analysis of self-directed mental health care in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Judith A; Morrow, Marina; Battersby, Lupin

2017-06-01

Recovery from mental illness is influenced by one's social location along multiple dimensions of identity, such as race, class, gender, age, and ability, and by how these social locations are expressed through structural and institutional barriers. This project was developed using an intersectional policy analysis framework designed to promote equity across identity locations-called the multistrand method-to examine the potential use of self-directed care financing approaches in the Canadian mental health system. A panel of 16 diverse stakeholders came together 4 times at structured 6-hr meetings to examine the evidence for self-directed care and explore its application in the Canadian context. Telephone interviews with evidence panel members were conducted to assess their perceptions of the group process and outcomes. Our analysis revealed ways that intersecting strand locations might differentially influence the degree of choice and recovery experienced by self-directed care participants. Individualized resource allocation, draining financial resources from ethnically specific services, unevenness in acceptance of the recovery orientation, and paucity of service options in different geographical regions were identified as contexts in which self-directed care policies could promote inequity. However, greater peer involvement in the model's implementation, use of indigenous community supports, purchase of material goods by economically disenfranchised persons, and access to services from ethnically diverse clinicians in the private sector were identified as equity-promoting model features. By couching their analysis at the level of unique socially-situated perspectives, the group developed detailed policy recommendations and insights into both the potential and limitations of self-directed care. The knowledge gained from our project can be used to develop uniquely Canadian self-directed care models tailored to promote recovery through empowerment and self

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Shanahan

Full Text Available AIMS: To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. METHOD: A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events. The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB. FINDINGS: The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. CONCLUSION: Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

2017-01-01

Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.

Policy Analysis, International Relations, and European Governance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Mads Christian Dagnis; Tatham, Michaël

2017-01-01

The article highlights the rationale of the special issue in terms of its objectives and guiding principles. It maps different evolutions and challenges within three analytical streams (1) regarding the field of policy analysis, (2) concerning the interaction between domestic and international...... affairs, and (3) with regards to the transformation of European Union governance in troubled times. These three research avenues highlight how not only European governance itself has evolved in a changing world, but also how the analysis of interests, institutions, and policy-making has morphed...

Interpretation and Analysis of Privacy Policies of Websites in India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dhotre, Prashant Shantaram; Olesen, Henning; Khajuria, Samant

2016-01-01

the conditions specified in the policy document. So, ideally the privacy policies should be readable and provide sufficient information to empower users to make knowledgeable decisions. Thus, we have examined more than 50 privacy policies and discussed the content analysis in this paper. We discovered...... on information collection methods, purpose, sharing entities names and data transit. In this study, the 11 % privacy policies are compliance with privacy standards which denotes other privacy policies are less committed to support transparency, choice, and accountability in the process of information collection...... that the policies are not only unstructured but also described in complicated language. Our analysis shows that the user data security measures are nonspecific and unsatisfactory in 57% privacy policies. In spite of huge amount of information collection, the privacy policies does not have clear description...

THE SHEFFIELD ALCOHOL POLICY MODEL - A MATHEMATICAL DESCRIPTION.

Science.gov (United States)

Brennan, Alan; Meier, Petra; Purshouse, Robin; Rafia, Rachid; Meng, Yang; Hill-Macmanus, Daniel; Angus, Colin; Holmes, John

2014-09-30

This methodology paper sets out a mathematical description of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model version 2.0, a model to evaluate public health strategies for alcohol harm reduction in the UK. Policies that can be appraised include a minimum price per unit of alcohol, restrictions on price discounting, and broader public health measures. The model estimates the impact on consumers, health services, crime, employers, retailers and government tax revenues. The synthesis of public and commercial data sources to inform the model structure is described. A detailed algebraic description of the model is provided. This involves quantifying baseline levels of alcohol purchasing and consumption by age and gender subgroups, estimating the impact of policies on consumption, for example, using evidence on price elasticities of demand for alcohol, quantification of risk functions relating alcohol consumption to harms including 47 health conditions, crimes, absenteeism and unemployment, and finally monetary valuation of the consequences. The results framework, shown for a minimum price per unit of alcohol, has been used to provide policy appraisals for the UK government policy-makers. In discussion and online appendix, we explore issues around valuation and scope, limitations of evidence/data, how the framework can be adapted to other countries and decisions, and ongoing plans for further development. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evidence-based policy: implications for nursing and policy involvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Hewison, Alistair

2008-11-01

Evidence-based policy making is espoused as a central feature of government in the United Kingdom. However, an expectation that this will improve the quality of policy produced and provide a path to increased involvement of nurses in the policy process is misplaced. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that the emphasis on evidence-based policy is problematic and cannot be regarded as a "new model" of policy making. Also, it could deflect attention from more practical approaches to policy involvement on the part of nurses. Policy development activities, acquisition of skills in policy analysis, and other forms of involvement are needed if nurses are to move along the continuum from policy literacy, through policy acumen, to policy competence. This involves taking a critical stance on the notion of evidence-based policy.

A new robustness analysis for climate policy evaluations: A CGE application for the EU 2020 targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermeling, Claudia; Löschel, Andreas; Mennel, Tim

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a new method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on Gauss Quadrature and applies it to check the robustness of a large-scale climate policy evaluation. The revised version of the Gauss-quadrature approach to sensitivity analysis reduces computations considerably vis-à-vis the commonly applied Monte-Carlo methods; this allows for a stochastic sensitivity analysis also for large scale models and multi-dimensional changes of parameters. In the application, an impact assessment of EU2020 climate policy, we focus on sectoral elasticities that are part of the basic parameters of the model and have been recently determined by econometric estimation, alongside with standard errors. The impact assessment is based on the large scale CGE model PACE. We show the applicability of the Gauss-quadrature approach and confirm the robustness of the impact assessment with the PACE model. The variance of the central model outcomes is smaller than their mean by order four to eight, depending on the aggregation level (i.e. aggregate variables such as GDP show a smaller variance than sectoral output). - Highlights: ► New, simplified method for stochastic sensitivity analysis for CGE analysis. ► Gauss quadrature with orthogonal polynomials. ► Application to climate policy—the case of the EU 2020 targets

Policy research and analysis organizations: an account of recent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Drawing from interviews, archival documents and a range of other sources, this article takes stock of key public policy research and analysis organizations in Ethiopia. It sheds light on the significance of professionalization of policy analysis and its contributions to closing the gap between knowledge and policymaking, offers ...

Consumers’ evaluation of national new energy vehicle policy in China: An analysis based on a four paradigm model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Wenbo; Long, Ruyin; Chen, Hong

2016-01-01

The Chinese government has issued numerous policies to promote the development and adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs) to address the problem of excessive energy consumption and environmental pollution. In this study we divided these policies into seven categories: macroscopic, demonstration, subsidization, preferential tax, technical support, industry management, and infrastructure. Since consumers’ opinions affect the policy choices of government, based on questionnaire data we use a four paradigm model to analyze the consumers’ evaluation of each policy in terms of perceptions of importance and satisfaction. The results show that macroscopic policies are perceived to be of high importance and satisfaction, whereas for industry management policies they are perceived to be of low importance and satisfaction. The importance perceptions of preferential tax and demonstration policies are low, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are high. Perceptions of the importance of subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies are high, whereas perceptions of their satisfaction are low. We find that the subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need urgent improvement. Finally, we put forward several suggestions to improve the current policies and increase the consumers’ intention to adopt NEVs. - Highlights: • This study divided Chinese NEV-related policies into seven types. • This study analyzed consumers’ evaluation of NEV-related policies. • Consumers’ evaluations about NEV-related policies were diverse. • Subsidization, technical support, and infrastructure policies need improvement.

Learning by Doing vs Learning by Researching in a Model of Climate Change Policy Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castelnuovo, E.; Galeotti, M.; Vergalli, S.; Gambarelli, G.

2004-01-01

Many predictions and conclusions in the climate change literature have been made and drawn on the basis of theoretical analyses and quantitative models that assume exogenous technological change. One is naturally led to wonder whether those conclusions and policy prescriptions hold in the more realistic case of endogenously evolving technologies. In previous work we took a popular integrated assessment model and modified it so as to allow for an explicit role of the stock of knowledge which accumulates through R and D investment. In our formulation knowledge affects both the output production technology and the emission-output ratio. In this paper we make further progress in our efforts aimed to model the process of technological change. In keeping with recent theories of endogenous growth, we specify two ways in which knowledge accumulates: via a deliberate, optimally selected R and D decision or via experience, giving rise to Learning by Doing. As an illustration, we simulate the model under the two versions of endogenous technical change and look at the dynamics of a selected number of relevant variables, including growth rates of GDP and physical capital, as well as total emissions and rate of domestic abatement. Keywords: Climate Policy, Environmental Modeling, Integrated Assessment, Technical Change

Bio-economic farm modelling for integrated assessment of agricultural and environmental policies: towards re-usability and improved empirical validity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kanellopoulos, A.

2010-01-01

Keywords: integrated assessment, environmental policy, agricultural policy, market liberalization, bio-economic model, farming systems, mathematical programming, maximum entropy estimation, data envelopment analysis, agricultural activity, land use, future studies.

The main objective of

Models for residential- and commercial-sector energy-conservation analysis: applications, limitations, and future potential. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Henry E.; Fullen, Robert E.

1980-09-01

This report reviews four of the major models used by the Department of Energy (DOE) for energy conservation analyses in the residential- and commercial-building sectors. The objective is to provide a critical analysis of how these models can serve as tools for DOE and its Conservation Policy Office in evaluating and quantifying their policy and program requirements. For this, the study brings together information on the models' analytical structure and their strengths and limitations in policy applications these are then employed to assess the most-effective role for each model in addressing future issues of buildings energy-conservation policy and analysis. The four models covered are: Oak Ridge Residential Energy Model; Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households/Comprehensive Human Resources Data System (MATH/CHRDS) Model; Oak Ridge Commercial Energy Model; and Brookhaven Buildings Energy Conservation Optimization Model (BECOM).

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Environmental management policy analysis using complex system simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Eeckhout, E.; Roberts, D.; Oakes, R.; Shieh, A.; Hardie, W.; Pope, P.

1999-01-01

The two primary modules of Envirosim (the model of Los Alamos TA-55 and the WIPP transport/storage model) have been combined into one application, with the simulated waste generated by TA-55 operations being fed to storage, packaging, and transport simulation entities. Three simulation scenarios were executed which demonstrate the usefulness of Envirosim as a policy analysis tool for use in planning shipments to WIPP. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been implemented using IDL (Interactive Data Language) which allows the analyst to easily view simulation results. While IDL is not necessarily the graphics interface that would be selected for a production version of Envirosim, it does provide some powerful data manipulation capabilities, and it runs on a variety of platforms

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

Analysis of higher education policy frameworks for open and distance education in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellahi, Abida; Zaka, Bilal

2015-04-01

The constant rise in demand for higher education has become the biggest challenge for educational planners. This high demand has paved a way for distance education across the globe. This article innovatively analyzes the policy documentation of a major distance education initiative in Pakistan for validity that will identify the utility of policy linkages. The study adopted a qualitative research design that consisted of two steps. In the first step, a content analysis of distance learning policy framework was made. For this purpose, two documents were accessed titled "Framework for Launching Distance Learning Programs in HEIs of Pakistan" and "Guideline on Quality of Distance Education for External Students at the HEIs of Pakistan." In the second step, the policy guidelines mentioned in these two documents were evaluated at two levels. At the first level, the overall policy documents were assessed against a criterion proposed by Cheung, Mirzaei, and Leeder. At the second level, the proposed program of distance learning was assessed against a criterion set by Gellman-Danley and Fetzner and Berge. The distance education program initiative in Pakistan is of promising nature which needs to be assessed regularly. This study has made an initial attempt to assess the policy document against a criterion identified from literature. The analysis shows that the current policy documents do offer some strengths at this initial level, however, they cannot be considered a comprehensive policy guide. The inclusion or correction of missing or vague areas identified in this study would make this policy guideline document a treasured tool for Higher Education Commission (HEC). For distance education policy makers, this distance education policy framework model recognizes several fundamental areas with which they should be concerned. The findings of this study in the light of two different policy framework measures highlight certain opportunities that can help strengthening the

Configuration model of partial repairable spares under batch ordering policy based on inventory state

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Ruan Minzhi; Luo Yi; Li Hua

2014-01-01

Rational planning of spares configuration project is an effective approach to improve equipment availability as well as reduce life cycle cost (LCC). With an analysis of various impacts on support system, the spares demand rate forecast model is constructed. According to systemic analysis method, spares support effectiveness evaluation indicators system is built, and then, initial spares configuration and optimization method is researched. To the issue of discarding and con-sumption for incomplete repairable items, its expected backorders function is approximated by Laplace demand distribution. Combining the (s-1, s) and (R, Q) inventory policy, the spares resup-ply model is established under the batch ordering policy based on inventory state, and the optimi-zation analysis flow for spares configuration is proposed. Through application on shipborne equipment spares configuration, the given scenarios are analyzed under two constraint targets:one is the support effectiveness, and the other is the spares cost. Analysis reveals that the result is consistent with practical regulation;therefore, the model’s correctness, method’s validity as well as optimization project’s rationality are proved to a certain extent.

Empirical analysis of the solar incentive policy for Tennessee solar value chain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawhney, Rapinder; Thakur, Kaveri; Venkatesan, Bharadwaj; Ji, Shuguang; Upreti, Girish; Sanseverino, John

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Tennessee solar value chain (TNSVC) is modeled to analyze effect of policy on demand. • TNSVC model replicates realistic scenarios to gauge the economic impact on state. • Simulation study determines that the TNSVC capacity is greater than demand. • Direct cash incentives have greater impact on demand than indirect incentives. • The model portrays a holistic approach to assist strategic energy policy analysis. - Abstract: The market for solar energy in the US has grown exponentially due to increased consumer demand resulting from price reduction via economies of scale, technological progress, and a variety of incentives from federal and state governments as well as utility companies. The installation of solar power in Tennessee has more than doubled each year from 2009 to 2011. In this paper, we focus on the behavior of the Tennessee Solar Value Chain (TNSVC) to study the factors that influence growth of solar industry in the state. The impact of existing incentives on the TNSVC is analyzed. The TNSVC is simulated based on inputs from on-site survey to estimate economic impact in terms of the number of jobs added and the tax revenue generated in the state. In addition, a sensitivity analysis for the impact on the TNSVC under different policies those may be adopted by the state of Tennessee in the future is conducted. This paper employs a holistic model which can predict PV installation demand, understand solar value chain capacity, and estimate the revenue generation. It should be noted that the method employed in this study is not unique to the solar energy industry in Tennessee. The data utilized in this study is a combination of public domain information and surveys of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and installers. This makes the model in this paper flexible enough to be applied to assess the solar value chain in other state or country

Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.

2014-01-01

In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid

[Model-based biofuels system analysis: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shiyan; Zhang, Xiliang; Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin

2011-03-01

Model-based system analysis is an important tool for evaluating the potential and impacts of biofuels, and for drafting biofuels technology roadmaps and targets. The broad reach of the biofuels supply chain requires that biofuels system analyses span a range of disciplines, including agriculture/forestry, energy, economics, and the environment. Here we reviewed various models developed for or applied to modeling biofuels, and presented a critical analysis of Agriculture/Forestry System Models, Energy System Models, Integrated Assessment Models, Micro-level Cost, Energy and Emission Calculation Models, and Specific Macro-level Biofuel Models. We focused on the models' strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, facilitating the selection of a suitable type of model for specific issues. Such an analysis was a prerequisite for future biofuels system modeling, and represented a valuable resource for researchers and policy makers.

Geothermal power, policy, and design: Using levelized cost of energy and sensitivity analysis to target improved policy incentives for the U.S. geothermal market

Science.gov (United States)

Richard, Christopher L.

At the core of the geothermal industry is a need to identify how policy incentives can better be applied for optimal return. Literature from Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011) suggest that a more tailored approach to crafting geothermal policy is warranted. In this research the guiding theory is based on those suggestions and is structured to represent a policy analysis approach using analytical methods. The methods being used are focus on qualitative and quantitative results. To address the qualitative sections of this research an extensive review of contemporary literature is used to identify the frequency of use for specific barriers, and is followed upon with an industry survey to determine existing gaps. As a result there is support for certain barriers and justification for expanding those barriers found within the literature. This method of inquiry is an initial point for structuring modeling tools to further quantify the research results as part of the theoretical framework. Analytical modeling utilizes the levelized cost of energy as a foundation for comparative assessment of policy incentives. Model parameters use assumptions to draw conclusions from literature and survey results to reflect unique attributes held by geothermal power technologies. Further testing by policy option provides an opportunity to assess the sensitivity of each variable with respect to applied policy. Master limited partnerships, feed in tariffs, RD&D, and categorical exclusions all result as viable options for mitigating specific barriers associated to developing geothermal power. The results show reductions of levelized cost based upon the model's exclusive parameters. These results are also compared to contemporary policy options highlighting the need for tailored policy, as discussed by Bloomquist (1999), Doris et al. (2009), and McIlveen (2011). It is the intent of this research to provide the reader with a descriptive understanding of the role of

La rivoluzione dei MOOCs: un'analisi di policy framework su scala europea / The MOOCs’ (Revolution. A policy framework analysis at a European level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosanna De Rosa Valentina Reda

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Academic institutions all over the world, as well as active stakeholders in the field of education and supporting services, are exploring Moocs to try and understand how learning and teaching environments are changing, the outcomes of such a novelty for different countries and audiences, to what extent the Moocs revolution can represent both a unique opportunity to open up education and a new business model. Born to help universities and academic institutions to innovate pedagogical models, Moocs are developing along different routes. Using a policy framework analysis approach, this article presents the results of a European survey that questioned both public and private stakeholders on Moocs policy design, objectives and expected outcomes.

Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

2008-01-01

Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy: A critical analysis of China's policy approach to renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Sufang; Andrews-Speed, Philip; Zhao, Xiaoli; He, Yongxiu

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes China's policy approach to renewable energies and assesses how effectively China has met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. First we briefly discuss the interactions between these two policies. Then we outline China's key renewable energy and renewable industrial policies and find that China's government has well recognized the need for this policy interaction. After that, we study the achievements and problems in China's wind and solar PV sector during 2005–2012 and argue that China's policy approach to renewable energies has placed priority first on developing a renewable energy manufacturing industry and only second on renewable energy itself, and it has not effectively met the ideal of appropriate interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. Lastly, we make an in-depth analysis of the three ideas underlying this policy approach, that is, the green development idea, the low-carbon leadership idea and indigenous innovation idea. We conclude that Chinas' policy approach to renewable energies needs to enhance the interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of China's policy strategy toward renewable energies. -- Highlights: •Interactions between renewable energy policy and renewable energy industrial policy are discussed. •China's key renewable energy and renewable energy industrial policies are outlined. •Two empirical cases illustrate China's policy approach to renewable energies. •We argue that China needs to enhance the interactions between the two policies. •Three ideas underlie China's policy approach to renewable energies

Health and Juvenile Delinquency: Prescriptive Policy. Analysis As a Practical Art.

Science.gov (United States)

Flentje, H. Edward; Penner, Maurice J.

A case history of the development of a new Kansas state policy on juvenile delinquency illustrates the use of policy impact analysis and suggests four principles to follow in prescriptive policy analysis. A Kansas governor's task force on juvenile delinquency found evidence linking delinquency to undetected health problems (in sight, hearing,…

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

Model projections and policy reviews for energy saving in China's service sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Lin

2013-01-01

Energy efficiency of buildings in the service sector is becoming increasingly important in China due to the structural shift of the economy from industry to services. This paper employs a bottom-up cohort model to simulate current energy saving policies and to make projections for future energy use and CO 2 emissions for the period 2000–2030 in the Chinese service sector. The analysis shows that energy demand in the service sector will approximately triple in 2030, far beyond the target of quadrupling GDP while only doubling energy use. However, it is feasible to achieve the target of emission reduction by 40% in 2020 even under the poor state of compliance rate of building standard. This paper also highlights four crucial aspects of designing optimal energy saving policies for China's service sector based on the model results. - Highlights: • Government energy saving target cannot realize with current policies in services. • Energy savings policies for new buildings are crucial than building retrofitting. • Cooling energy use increases significantly to reach equal weight as heating. • CO 2 tax can contribute to change in fuel mix, and thus emission reductions. • Low compliance rate limits further energy saving, hence green fund is required

Implementation lessons for school food policies and marketing restrictions in the Philippines: a qualitative policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeve, Erica; Thow, Anne Marie; Bell, Colin; Engelhardt, Katrin; Gamolo-Naliponguit, Ella Cecilia; Go, John Juliard; Sacks, Gary

2018-01-23

The school environment can enhance children's skills, knowledge and behaviours in relation to healthy eating. However, in many countries, unhealthy foods are commonly available in schools, and children can be exposed to aggressive marketing by the food industry. Taking the perspective of policymakers, this study aimed to identify barriers and enablers to effective school food policy development and implementation in the Philippines. In May 2016, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 policymakers and stakeholders involved in school food policymaking and implementation in the Philippines. The Health Policy Analysis Triangle was used to identify interview questions and to guide the thematic analysis. These included the political and socio-environmental context, strengths and limitations of existing policy content, roles and behaviours of actors, implementation processes, policy outcomes, and opportunities to improve policy coherence. The Department of Education's policy 'Orders' represented a relatively strong policy framework for the education sector of the Philippines. However, a lack of human and financial resources for implementation, planning, and policy enforcement limited the impact of the policy on the healthiness of school food provision. Ambiguity in policy wording allowed a wide interpretation of the foods eligible to be provided in schools, and led to difficulties in effective monitoring and enforcement. Food companies used existing relationships with schools to promote their brands and compromise the establishment of a stronger food policy agenda. We found a motivated group of actors engaging in policy-oriented learning and advocating for a stronger policy alternative so as to improve the school food environment. The adoption of policy mechanisms being used to promote healthy dietary practices in the school setting will be strengthened by more robust implementation planning processes, and resources to support implementation and enforcement

Maryland's Model Policy to Address Bullying, Harassment, or Intimidation

Science.gov (United States)

Maryland State Department of Education, 2016

2016-01-01

In accordance with the provisions of Section 7-424.1 of the Education Article of the Annotated Code of Maryland, the Maryland State Board of Education has developed and adopted a Model Policy to address bullying, harassment, or intimidation. This report presents the Model Policy, which is organized into the following eight points: (1) Prohibition…

Policy analysis and recommendations for the DCM research data exchange.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-07-01

This report is a policy analysis and set of recommendations regarding open data policies and policies for new, transformative data environments that are being developed as part of the Connected Vehicle research program. It is presented in three secti...

Introduction: Discourse Analysis and Policy Discourse

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.R. Gasper (Des); R.J. Apthorpe (Raymond)

1996-01-01

markdownabstractAbstract: As introduction to a collection on policy discourses and patterns of argumentation in international development, this paper clarifies different meanings of `discourse' and 'discourse analysis', including as applied in development studies, and explains why effective

Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanna, Ryan; Ghonima, Mohamed; Kleissl, Jan; Tynan, George; Victor, David G.

2017-01-01

Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: • We offer a modeling tool to study technology and policy variables for microgrids. • We construct comprehensive load profiles for three likely adopters of microgrids. • Investment in natural gas generators is key to enabling business models. • Solar PV and storage are optimal but as supplements to gas generation. • Business models are highly robust to sensitivity in technology and policy variables.

Dynamic and adaptive policy models for coalition operations

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Dinesh; Calo, Seraphin; Chakraborty, Supriyo; Bertino, Elisa; Williams, Chris; Tucker, Jeremy; Rivera, Brian; de Mel, Geeth R.

2017-05-01

It is envisioned that the success of future military operations depends on the better integration, organizationally and operationally, among allies, coalition members, inter-agency partners, and so forth. However, this leads to a challenging and complex environment where the heterogeneity and dynamism in the operating environment intertwines with the evolving situational factors that affect the decision-making life cycle of the war fighter. Therefore, the users in such environments need secure, accessible, and resilient information infrastructures where policy-based mechanisms adopt the behaviours of the systems to meet end user goals. By specifying and enforcing a policy based model and framework for operations and security which accommodates heterogeneous coalitions, high levels of agility can be enabled to allow rapid assembly and restructuring of system and information resources. However, current prevalent policy models (e.g., rule based event-condition-action model and its variants) are not sufficient to deal with the highly dynamic and plausibly non-deterministic nature of these environments. Therefore, to address the above challenges, in this paper, we present a new approach for policies which enables managed systems to take more autonomic decisions regarding their operations.

Health policy, health systems research and analysis capacity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Introduction: Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis (HPSR&A) is an applied science that deals with complexity as it tries to provide lessons, tools and methods to understand and improve health systems and health policy. It is defined by the kinds of questions asked rather than a particular methodology.

Inclusion and Human Rights in Health Policies: Comparative and Benchmarking Analysis of 51 Policies from Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Namibia

Science.gov (United States)

MacLachlan, Malcolm; Amin, Mutamad; Mannan, Hasheem; El Tayeb, Shahla; Bedri, Nafisa; Swartz, Leslie; Munthali, Alister; Van Rooy, Gert; McVeigh, Joanne

2012-01-01

While many health services strive to be equitable, accessible and inclusive, peoples’ right to health often goes unrealized, particularly among vulnerable groups. The extent to which health policies explicitly seek to achieve such goals sets the policy context in which services are delivered and evaluated. An analytical framework was developed – EquiFrame – to evaluate 1) the extent to which 21 Core Concepts of human rights were addressed in policy documents, and 2) coverage of 12 Vulnerable Groups who might benefit from such policies. Using this framework, analysis of 51 policies across Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Sudan, confirmed the relevance of all Core Concepts and Vulnerable Groups. Further, our analysis highlighted some very strong policies, serious shortcomings in others as well as country-specific patterns. If social inclusion and human rights do not underpin policy formation, it is unlikely they will be inculcated in service delivery. EquiFrame facilitates policy analysis and benchmarking, and provides a means for evaluating policy revision and development. PMID:22649488

Inclusion and human rights in health policies: comparative and benchmarking analysis of 51 policies from Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Namibia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malcolm MacLachlan

Full Text Available While many health services strive to be equitable, accessible and inclusive, peoples' right to health often goes unrealized, particularly among vulnerable groups. The extent to which health policies explicitly seek to achieve such goals sets the policy context in which services are delivered and evaluated. An analytical framework was developed--EquiFrame--to evaluate 1 the extent to which 21 Core Concepts of human rights were addressed in policy documents, and 2 coverage of 12 Vulnerable Groups who might benefit from such policies. Using this framework, analysis of 51 policies across Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Sudan, confirmed the relevance of all Core Concepts and Vulnerable Groups. Further, our analysis highlighted some very strong policies, serious shortcomings in others as well as country-specific patterns. If social inclusion and human rights do not underpin policy formation, it is unlikely they will be inculcated in service delivery. EquiFrame facilitates policy analysis and benchmarking, and provides a means for evaluating policy revision and development.

Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Groff, Jennifer Sterling

2013-01-01

Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…

Hopf bifurcation and chaos in macroeconomic models with policy lag

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao Xiaofeng; Li Chuandong; Zhou Shangbo

2005-01-01

In this paper, we consider the macroeconomic models with policy lag, and study how lags in policy response affect the macroeconomic stability. The local stability of the nonzero equilibrium of this equation is investigated by analyzing the corresponding transcendental characteristic equation of its linearized equation. Some general stability criteria involving the policy lag and the system parameter are derived. By choosing the policy lag as a bifurcation parameter, the model is found to undergo a sequence of Hopf bifurcation. The direction and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by using the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Moreover, we show that the government can stabilize the intrinsically unstable economy if the policy lag is sufficiently short, but the system become locally unstable when the policy lag is too long. We also find the chaotic behavior in some range of the policy lag

Modeling Security-Enhanced Linux Policy Specifications for Analysis (Preprint)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Archer, Myla; Leonard, Elizabeth; Pradella, Matteo

2003-01-01

Security-Enhanced (SE) Linux is a modification of Linux initially released by NSA in January 2001 that provides a language for specifying Linux security policies and, as in the Flask architecture, a security server...

Strategic Sequencing for State Distributed PV Policies: A Quantitative Analysis of Policy Impacts and Interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Doris, E.; Krasko, V.A.

2012-10-01

State and local policymakers show increasing interest in spurring the development of customer-sited distributed generation (DG), in particular solar photovoltaic (PV) markets. Prompted by that interest, this analysis examines the use of state policy as a tool to support the development of a robust private investment market. This analysis builds on previous studies that focus on government subsidies to reduce installation costs of individual projects and provides an evaluation of the impacts of policies on stimulating private market development.

Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment - PAGE II. This project by the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) will support quality ... The project is supported by the UK's Department for International Development, and additional funding is ...

Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards:A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2007-01-16

State renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have emerged as one of the most important policy drivers of renewable energy capacity expansion in the U.S. Collectively, these policies now apply to roughly 40% of U.S. electricity load, and may have substantial impacts on electricity markets, ratepayers, and local economies. As RPS policies have been proposed or adopted in an increasing number of states, a growing number of studies have attempted to quantify the potential impacts of these policies, focusing primarily on projecting cost impacts, but sometimes also estimating macroeconomic and environmental effects. This report synthesizes and analyzes the results and methodologies of 28 distinct state or utility-level RPS cost impact analyses completed since 1998. Together, these studies model proposed or adopted RPS policies in 18 different states. We highlight the key findings of these studies on the costs and benefits of RPS policies, examine the sensitivity of projected costs to model assumptions, assess the attributes of different modeling approaches, and suggest possible areas of improvement for future RPS analysis.

Evaluation of realised energy savings with simulation models. A new policy tool for the Netherlands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boonekamp, P.G.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-01-15

This report describes a new analysis tool for the evaluation of realised energy savings, and effects of savings policy, in the Netherlands. It aims to meet the information needs of policymakers, both at national and EU level, using the monitoring results of the NL Agency. The system builds on the Protocol Monitoring Energy Savings to calculate realised savings. The innovation consists of the option to adjust energy models per sector, as already used for scenario analysis, to simulate past developments. The simulations can estimate total savings and assess the contribution of policy measures. The detailed simulation approach also enables the decomposition of energy trends into volume-effects due to growth, structural effects such as fuel substitution and import/exports, and various saving effects. As the modeling system is already used for the analysis of future trends, it enables a good comparison between ex-ante (expected) savings and ex-post (realised) savings. Finally, the system enables a faster delivery of calculation results than presently is the case.

A Critical Policy Analysis of 'Teach for Bangladesh': A Travelling Policy Touches Down

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikary, Rino Wiseman; Lingard, Bob

2018-01-01

This paper provides a critical policy analysis and network ethnography of "Teach for Bangladesh" ("TfB"). We demonstrate that TfB is a localised version of a global teacher education policy--"Teach for All/America" ("TfAll/A"). Santos, Boaventura De Sousa [2002. "The Processes of Globalisation."…

Policy Analysis Reaches Midlife

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beryl A. Radin

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The field of policy analysis that exists in the 21st century is quite different from that found earlier phases. The world of the 1960s that gave rise to this field in the US often seems unrelated to the world we experience today. These shifts have occurred as a result of a range of developments – technological changes, changes in the structure and processes of government both internally and globally, new expectations about accountability and transparency, economic and fiscal problems, and increased political and ideological conflict.It is clear globalization has had a significant impact on the field. Shifts in the type of decisionmaking also have created challenges for policy analysts since analysts are now clearly in every nook and cranny in the decisionmaking world. Thus it is relevant to look at the work that they do, the skills that they require, and the background experience that is relevant to them.

Towards a policy model for climate change mitigation: China's experience with wind power development and lessons for developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lema, A.; Ruby, K. [Univ. of Roskilde (Denmark). International Development Studies

2008-06-15

China has created a policy path to alleviate the pressure on carbon dioxide emissions. As other developing countries with rising per capita GDPs are emerging as important greenhouse gas emitters, the experience of China holds important lessons. In order to mitigate the reality of climate change, developing countries need carefully to assess appropriate policy models for renewable energy development. This article contains an analysis of the Chinese policy path and impact on the speed and benefit of domestic wind turbine installations. It is found that policy-makers have faced a critical trade-off between 'fast-track' cutbacks on fossil energy sources through wind power development and 'slow-track' wind power installations through development of a local manufacturing industry. China's choice of the slow-track model has proved constructive with the largest potential for CO{sub 2} reductions. The article identifies China's ability to coordinate policies for supply and demand as an inevitable factor for the success of the model. The immediate value of this analysis is to the benefit of developing countries' future choice of policy model. Policy-makers in emerging economies that wish to develop renewable energy sources have to take into account the institutional, manufacturing and wind resource foundations of their respective countries. The article concludes that a majority of developing countries may have to look towards a fast-track policy model. However, the larger emerging economies with manufacturing capabilities and strong wind resource endowments could realize a greater part of the potential for emission reductions through the slow-track model of wind energy development.

Modeling and Performance Analysis of Manufacturing Systems in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modeling and Performance Analysis of Manufacturing Systems in Footwear Industry. ... researcher to experiment with different variables and controls the manufacturing process ... In this study Arena simulation software is employed to model and measure ... for Authors · for Policy Makers · about Open Access · Journal Quality.

Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast model to support health policy decision making

OpenAIRE

R?muzat, C?cile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, ?sa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aball?a, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

2014-01-01

Background and objective: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, modelling policy decision impact became critical. The objective of this project was to test the impact of various policy decisions on pharmaceutical budget (developed for the European Commission for the project ‘European Union (EU) Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’ – http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm).Methods: A model was built to assess policy sc...

Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Kenneth E; Kibbe, Debra L; Ferencik, Rachel; Soderquist, Chris; Phillips, Mary Ann; Vall, Emily Anne; Minyard, Karen J

In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014. With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%. Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.

Establishment of a Policy Analysis Capability in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carole M.P. NEVES

2000-01-01

Full Text Available The Romanian government, like other governments of former communist countries, emerged from the collapsed Soviet Union ill prepared to confront the complex challenges of governing under a democratic, free market system. At the core of governments that formulate sound public policies, successfully implement programs, and respond effectively to rapidly changing situations is the capacity to carry out independent, high quality research and analysis that results in improved decision making. During the 21st century, the need and acceptance of the incorporation of policy analysis courses in public administration curricula in Romania is expected to grow. In time, educational programs are expected to result in the following consequences: _ Formation of a body of strong independent policy researchers employed by the national and local governments as well as by universities and non-profit institutions _ Utilization of analytical outcomes as tools of political, social and economic improvement by the executive, legislative and judicial branches and by non-profit and private sectors _ Greater public understanding of and participation in public policy processes.

The French nuclear policy. A model for security policy in North-East Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choe, K.

1998-01-01

Between the end of the second world war and the collapse of the Berlin wall, the French diplomacy was based on the nuclear policy in a solid and coherent way. This nuclear policy was an 'incarnation' of the national security conception, allowing France to recover its political, military and economical rank on the international scene. The most important characteristic of the French nuclear policy concerns the commercialization of the nuclear energy which aims to ensuring the national security through the building up of a financial, technological and political 'reserve'. In front of the domination of the USA and USSR during the cold war era, NE Asia had a similar geostrategic configuration as Western Europe. It concerns in particular the massive application of nuclear energy for both military and industrial purposes. The bases of the security policy in this region refers to the real use of the nuclear weapon by the USA against Japan in 1945. The French nuclear policy may be considered as a model for the building of the security policy of NE Asia, in particular through the commercialization of the nuclear technology between the countries in concern. This nuclear approach would allow the countries of these region to change their present day national defense policy into an economical and military cooperation. (J.S.)

Monetary Policy Delelgation and Transparency of Policy Targets: A Positive Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-01

neoclassical time- inconsistency framework, monetary policy is modeled as a two-stage game between the private sector and the central bank as...simple neoclassical model and keep it to a minimum complexity which suffices to derive the results. The applied game-theoretic framework stands in the...accountability may imply that central banks choose lo be opaque. Applying the theory of bureau- cracy to the ECB. Forder (2002) argues that central banks

Policy Research and Analysis Organizations: An Account of Recent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

policy research organizations operate, and touches on the negligible influence that the latter have ... organizations under considerations. The interviews were ... Drawing from the theoretical and empirical literatures, the next section sets ... institutionalizing policy research and analysis, however, politicians and bureaucrats ...

Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kandlikar, Milind [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

1994-12-01

In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

JERM model of care: an in-principle model for dental health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lam, Raymond; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2014-01-01

Oral diseases are the most prevalent conditions in the community. Their economic burden is high and their impact on quality of life is profound. There is an increasing body of evidence indicating that oral diseases have wider implications beyond the confines of the mouth. The importance of oral health has not been unnoticed by the government. The Commonwealth (Federal) government under the Howard-led Coalition in 2004 had broken tradition by placing dentistry in its universal health insurance scheme, Medicare. Known as the Chronic Disease Dental Scheme (CDDS), the program aimed to manage patients with chronic conditions as part of the Enhanced Primary Care initiative. This scheme was a landmark policy for several reasons. Besides being the first major dental policy under Medicare, the program proved to be the most expensive and controversial. Unfortunately, cost containment and problems with service provision led to its cessation in 2012 by the Gillard Labor Government. Despite being seen as a failure, the CDDS provided a unique opportunity to assess national policy in practice. By analysing the policy-relevant effects of the CDDS, important lessons can be learnt for policy development. This paper discusses these lessons and has formulated a set of principles recommended for effective oral health policy. The JERM model represents the principles of a justified, economical and research-based model of care.

Interpretive policy analysis in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Bommel, Severine; van Hulst, M.J.; Yanow, Dvora; van Nispen, Frans; Scholten, Peter

2014-01-01

This chapter outlines the character of interpretive policy analysis (IPA) and then looks at the history and present state of its practice in the Netherlands. In an approach commonly found in science studies, that history is traced through key actors and their publications, institutional locations,

Using the Kaldor-Hicks Tableau Format for Cost-Benefit Analysis and Policy Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Krutilla, Kerry

2005-01-01

This note describes the Kaldor-Hicks (KH) tableau format as a framework for distributional accounting in cost-benefit analysis and policy evaluation. The KH tableau format can serve as a heuristic aid for teaching microeconomics-based policy analysis, and offer insight to policy analysts and decisionmakers beyond conventional efficiency analysis.

Dynamic energy models and carbon mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tilley, Luke A.

In this dissertation I examine a specific class of energy models and their implications for carbon mitigation policies. The class of models includes a production function capable of reproducing the empirically observed phenomenon of short run rigidity of energy use in response to energy price changes and long run exibility of energy use in response to energy price changes. I use a theoretical model, parameterized using empirical data, to simulate economic performance under several tax regimes where taxes are levied on capital income, investment, and energy. I also investigate transitions from one tax regime to another. I find that energy taxes intended to reduce energy use can successfully achieve those goals with minimal or even positive impacts on macroeconomic performance. But the transition paths to new steady states are lengthy, making political commitment to such policies very challenging.

A linear programming model to optimize diets in environmental policy scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Moraes, L E; Wilen, J E; Robinson, P H; Fadel, J G

2012-03-01

The objective was to develop a linear programming model to formulate diets for dairy cattle when environmental policies are present and to examine effects of these policies on diet formulation and dairy cattle nitrogen and mineral excretions as well as methane emissions. The model was developed as a minimum cost diet model. Two types of environmental policies were examined: a tax and a constraint on methane emissions. A tax was incorporated to simulate a greenhouse gas emissions tax policy, and prices of carbon credits in the current carbon markets were attributed to the methane production variable. Three independent runs were made, using carbon dioxide equivalent prices of $5, $17, and $250/t. A constraint was incorporated into the model to simulate the second type of environmental policy, reducing methane emissions by predetermined amounts. The linear programming formulation of this second alternative enabled the calculation of marginal costs of reducing methane emissions. Methane emission and manure production by dairy cows were calculated according to published equations, and nitrogen and mineral excretions were calculated by mass conservation laws. Results were compared with respect to the values generated by a base least-cost model. Current prices of the carbon credit market did not appear onerous enough to have a substantive incentive effect in reducing methane emissions and altering diet costs of our hypothetical dairy herd. However, when emissions of methane were assumed to be reduced by 5, 10, and 13.5% from the base model, total diet costs increased by 5, 19.1, and 48.5%, respectively. Either these increased costs would be passed onto the consumer or dairy producers would go out of business. Nitrogen and potassium excretions were increased by 16.5 and 16.7% with a 13.5% reduction in methane emissions from the base model. Imposing methane restrictions would further increase the demand for grains and other human-edible crops, which is not a progressive

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environment, sustainability, and education policy research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

McKenzie, Marcia; Rickinson, Mark; Bengtssen, Stefan

Introduction: This session is a two part symposium on the topic of environment and sustainability in relation to educational policy development, enactment, and analysis. This format is modeled on similar formats used in other international conferences, such as the Association of American...... and methodological approaches to policy and policy research. Some key questions to be addressed include:- What kinds of understandings of policy and policy research are informing work in environmental and sustainability education?- Are there interdisiplinary approaches to policy research that can be useful...... for furthering critical education policy analysis?- What are the relationships between policy development and its enactment or implementation? - To what extent has the environmental education field researched policy development and/or enactment?- What might environmental education research have to offer...

A model to create an efficient and equitable admission policy for patients arriving to the cardiothoracic ICU.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Muer; Fry, Michael J; Raikhelkar, Jayashree; Chin, Cynthia; Anyanwu, Anelechi; Brand, Jordan; Scurlock, Corey

2013-02-01

To develop queuing and simulation-based models to understand the relationship between ICU bed availability and operating room schedule to maximize the use of critical care resources and minimize case cancellation while providing equity to patients and surgeons. Retrospective analysis of 6-month unit admission data from a cohort of cardiothoracic surgical patients, to create queuing and simulation-based models of ICU bed flow. Three different admission policies (current admission policy, shortest-processing-time policy, and a dynamic policy) were then analyzed using simulation models, representing 10 yr worth of potential admissions. Important output data consisted of the "average waiting time," a proxy for unit efficiency, and the "maximum waiting time," a surrogate for patient equity. A cardiothoracic surgical ICU in a tertiary center in New York, NY. Six hundred thirty consecutive cardiothoracic surgical patients admitted to the cardiothoracic surgical ICU. None. Although the shortest-processing-time admission policy performs best in terms of unit efficiency (0.4612 days), it did so at expense of patient equity prolonging surgical waiting time by as much as 21 days. The current policy gives the greatest equity but causes inefficiency in unit bed-flow (0.5033 days). The dynamic policy performs at a level (0.4997 days) 8.3% below that of the shortest-processing-time in average waiting time; however, it balances this with greater patient equity (maximum waiting time could be shortened by 4 days compared to the current policy). Queuing theory and computer simulation can be used to model case flow through a cardiothoracic operating room and ICU. A dynamic admission policy that looks at current waiting time and expected ICU length of stay allows for increased equity between patients with only minimum losses of efficiency. This dynamic admission policy would seem to be a superior in maximizing case-flow. These results may be generalized to other surgical ICUs.

Bangladesh policy on prevention and control of non-communicable diseases: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Biswas, Tuhin; Pervin, Sonia; Tanim, Md Imtiaz Alam; Niessen, Louis; Islam, Anwar

2017-06-19

This paper is aimed at critically assessing the extent to which Non-Communicable Disease NCD-related policies introduced in Bangladesh align with the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. The authors reviewed all relevant policy documents introduced by the Government of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. The literature review targeted scientific and grey literature documents involving internet-based search, and expert consultation and snowballing to identify relevant policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a specific matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2013-2020 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. A total of 51 documents were identified. Seven (14%) were research and/or surveys, nine were on established policies (17%), while seventeen (33%) were on action programmes. Five (10%) were related to guidelines and thirteen (25%) were strategic planning documents from government and non-government agencies/institutes. The study covered documents produced by the Government of Bangladesh as well as those by quasi-government and non-government organizations irrespective of the extent to which the intended policies were implemented. The policy analysis findings suggest that although the government has initiated many NCD-related policies or programs, they lacked proper planning, implementation and monitoring. Consequently, Bangladesh over the years had little success in effectively addressing the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. It is imperative that future research critically assess the effectiveness of national NCD policies by monitoring their implementation and level of population coverage.

An Analysis of States' Policies Regarding Social Media Use in Education

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Janette K.

2016-01-01

This policy analysis project focused on states' policies regarding social media use in education. Currently, policies, practices and laws are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing nature of technology. As a result of the quick advancement of social media practices, the need exists for organic policies and practices within the educational…

Policy analysis of the English graduation benchmark in Taiwan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author ...

European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

2011-01-01

In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Toure Kadidiatou

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. Methods The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. Results With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010. This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA; action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames

Positioning women's and children's health in African union policy-making: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Toure, Kadidiatou; Sankore, Rotimi; Kuruvilla, Shyama; Scolaro, Elisa; Bustreo, Flavia; Osotimehin, Babatunde

2012-02-16

With limited time to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, progress towards improving women's and children's health needs to be accelerated. With Africa accounting for over half of the world's maternal and child deaths, the African Union (AU) has a critical role in prioritizing related policies and catalysing required investments and action. In this paper, the authors assess the evolution of African Union policies related to women's and children's health, and analyze how these policies are prioritized and framed. The main method used in this policy analysis was a document review of all African Union policies developed from 1963 to 2010, focusing specifically on policies that explicitly mention health. The findings from this document review were discussed with key actors to identify policy implications. With over 220 policies in total, peace and security is the most common AU policy topic. Social affairs and other development issues became more prominent in the 1990s. The number of policies that mentioned health rose steadily over the years (with 1 policy mentioning health in 1963 to 7 in 2010).This change was catalysed by factors such as: a favourable shift in AU priorities and systems towards development issues, spurred by the transition from the Organization of African Unity to the African Union; the mandate of the African Commission on Human and People's Rights; health-related advocacy initiatives, such as the Campaign for the Accelerated Reduction of Maternal Mortality in Africa (CARMMA); action and accountability requirements arising from international human rights treaties, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and new health-funding mechanisms, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.Prioritization of women's and children's health issues in AU policies has been framed primarily by human rights, advocacy and accountability considerations, more by economic and health frames looking at investments and impact. AU policies related

Time to refine key climate policy models

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, Alexander R.

2018-05-01

Ambition regarding climate change at the national level is critical but is often calibrated with the projected costs — as estimated by a small suite of energy-economic models. Weaknesses in several key areas in these models will continue to distort policy design unless collectively addressed by a diversity of researchers.

Monetary Policy and Real Estate Prices: A Disaggregated Analysis for Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Berlemann, Michael; Freese, Julia

2010-01-01

Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Em-ploying a new dataset for Switzerland we estimate vector autoregressive models and find substitution effects between house and apartment prices on the one hand and rental prices on the other. Interestingly enough, commercial prope...

Analysis and control design of sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Bing; Duncan, Stephen; Papachristodoulou, Antonis; Hepburn, Cameron

2013-01-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now an urgent priority. Systems control theory, and in particular feedback control, can be helpful in designing policies that achieve sustainable levels of emissions of CO 2 (and other greenhouse gases) while minimizing the impact on the economy, and at the same time explicitly addressing the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. In this paper, we describe preliminary results for an approach where model predictive control (MPC) is applied to a model of the UK economy (UK 4see model) as a test bed to design sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedback control, the policies are updated on the basis of the actual emissions, rather than on the predicted level of emissions. The basic structure and principle of the UK 4see model is described and its implementation in Simulink is presented. A linearized state space model is obtained and model predictive control is applied to design policies for CO 2 emissions. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The preliminary results obtained in this paper illustrate the strength of the proposed design approach and form the basis for future research on using systems control theory to design optimal sustainable policies

Modelling mobility aspects of security policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartel, Pieter H.; van Eck, Pascal; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Barthe, G.; Burdy, L.; Huisman, Marieke; Lanet, J.-L.; Muntean, T.

Security policies are rules that constrain the behaviour of a system. Different, largely unrelated sets of rules typically govern the physical and logical worlds. However, increased hardware and software mobility forces us to consider those rules in an integrated fashion. We present SPIN models of

Fuzziness and fuzzy modelling in Bulgaria's energy policy decision-making dilemma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xingquan

2006-01-01

The decision complexity resulting from imprecision in decision variables and parameters, a major difficulty for conventional decision analysis methods, can be relevantly analysed and modelled by fuzzy logic. Bulgaria's nuclear policy decision-making process implicates such complexity of imprecise nature: stakeholders, criteria, measurement, etc. Given the suitable applicability of fuzzy logic in this case, this article tries to offer a concrete fuzzy paradigm including delimitation of decision space, quantification of imprecise variables, and, of course, parameterisation. (author)

Policy Implications Analysis: A Methodological Advancement for Policy Research and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Madey, Doren L.; Stenner, A. Jackson

Policy Implications Analysis (PIA) is a tool designed to maximize the likelihood that an evaluation report will have an impact on decision-making. PIA was designed to help people planning and conducting evaluations tailor their information so that it has optimal potential for being used and acted upon. This paper describes the development and…

Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

2017-12-01

Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks

Environmental policy and environment-saving technologies. Economic aspects of policy making under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ossokina, I.

2003-07-01

It is generally known that natural environment is profoundly influenced by technological change. The direction and the size of this influence are, however, surrounded by uncertainties, which substantially complicate environmental policy making. This dissertation uses game-theoretical models to study policy making under uncertainty about (a) the costs of technological advances in pollution control, (b) the preferences of the policy maker and the voters, and (c) the consequences of policy measures. From a positive point of view the analysis provides explanations for environmental policies in modern democracies. From a normative point of view it gives a number of recommendations to improve environmental policies.

Collection Development Policies in Community College Libraries.

Science.gov (United States)

Mesling, Chris Fowler

2003-01-01

Emphasizes the need for collection development policy in community college academic libraries. Highlights areas of resource sharing, community analysis, and collection assessment. Also provides an overview of how to create a collection for development policy, and recommends books on writing such policy. Includes model policy statements. (NB)

Truth and Credibility in Sincere Policy Analysis: Alternative Approaches for the Production of Policy-Relevant Knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozeman, Barry; Landsbergen, David

1989-01-01

Two competing approaches to policy analysis are distinguished: a credibility approach, and a truth approach. According to the credibility approach, the policy analyst's role is to search for plausible argument rather than truth. Each approach has pragmatic tradeoffs in fulfilling the goal of providing usable knowledge to decision makers. (TJH)

Progress in Energy Storage Technologies: Models and Methods for Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Matteson, Schuyler W.

Climate change and other sustainability challenges have led to the development of new technologies that increase energy efficiency and reduce the utilization of finite resources. To promote the adoption of technologies with social benefits, governments often enact policies that provide financial incentives at the point of purchase. In their current form, these subsidies have the potential to increase the diffusion of emerging technologies; however, accounting for technological progress can improve program success while decreasing net public investment. This research develops novel methods using experience curves for the development of more efficient subsidy policies. By providing case studies in the field of automotive energy storage technologies, this dissertation also applies the methods to show the impacts of incorporating technological progress into energy policies. Specific findings include learning-dependent tapering subsidies for electric vehicles based on the lithium-ion battery experience curve, the effects of residual learning rates in lead-acid batteries on emerging technology cost competitiveness, and a cascading diffusion assessment of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle subsidy programs. Notably, the results show that considering learning rates in policy development can save billions of dollars in public funds, while also lending insight into the decision of whether or not to subsidize a given technology.

Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

2016-09-21

Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived

A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eker, Sibel; Daalen, Els van

2015-01-01

Biomethane is a renewable alternative to natural gas. It has the potential to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to help deal with supply problems. However, several factors make the future of biomethane production complex and uncertain, such as resource availability, demand, capacity installation, profitability and the competition between the biomethane and electricity sectors for sharing the available biogas and biomass resources. In this research, we study the dynamics of the Dutch biomethane production and analyze the effects of subsidization policy with a system dynamics model. The policy is tested under uncertainty with respect to three conflicting objectives, namely maximizing production and emission reduction, and minimizing costs. According to the results, the subsidization is crucial to develop biomethane production, and the performance of the policy is enhanced in terms of robustness and of meeting all three objectives satisfactorily when the policy is implemented for a long time, with relatively low subsidy prices. Besides, the subsidization policy is found to be most vulnerable to the producers’ uncertain investment response to profitability. In future research, different policy options such as subsidizing other biomass-based renewable energy options and policies affecting the biomethane demand can be tested

An Integrative Behavioral Model of Information Security Policy Compliance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hoon Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members’ compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members’ attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1 the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members’ compliance with the information security policy, (2 the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3 the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training

An integrative behavioral model of information security policy compliance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sang Hoon; Yang, Kyung Hoon; Park, Sunyoung

2014-01-01

The authors found the behavioral factors that influence the organization members' compliance with the information security policy in organizations on the basis of neutralization theory, Theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. Depending on the theory of planned behavior, members' attitudes towards compliance, as well as normative belief and self-efficacy, were believed to determine the intention to comply with the information security policy. Neutralization theory, a prominent theory in criminology, could be expected to provide the explanation for information system security policy violations. Based on the protection motivation theory, it was inferred that the expected efficacy could have an impact on intentions of compliance. By the above logical reasoning, the integrative behavioral model and eight hypotheses could be derived. Data were collected by conducting a survey; 194 out of 207 questionnaires were available. The test of the causal model was conducted by PLS. The reliability, validity, and model fit were found to be statistically significant. The results of the hypotheses tests showed that seven of the eight hypotheses were acceptable. The theoretical implications of this study are as follows: (1) the study is expected to play a role of the baseline for future research about organization members' compliance with the information security policy, (2) the study attempted an interdisciplinary approach by combining psychology and information system security research, and (3) the study suggested concrete operational definitions of influencing factors for information security policy compliance through a comprehensive theoretical review. Also, the study has some practical implications. First, it can provide the guideline to support the successful execution of the strategic establishment for the implement of information system security policies in organizations. Second, it proves that the need of education and training programs suppressing

Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

OpenAIRE

Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

2015-01-01

This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

Policy Analysis of the English Graduation Benchmark in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, Chih-Min

2012-01-01

To nudge students to study English and to improve their English proficiency, many universities in Taiwan have imposed an English graduation benchmark on their students. This article reviews this policy, using the theoretic framework for education policy analysis proposed by Haddad and Demsky (1995). The author presents relevant research findings,…

Alcohol and drug policy model for the Canadian upstream petroleum industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-09-15

This alcohol and drug policy model was developed to help employers manage and reduce the risks associated with drug and alcohol use in the workplace. The policy model outlined guidelines for establishing and implementing drug and alcohol policies, and discussed treatment programs and opportunities for re-employment. The model was developed by Enform, the upstream petroleum industry's safety and training arm, who used a previous guide developed by the Construction Owner's Association of Alberta (COAA) as a model. Enform's model provided a summary of key accountabilities across all levels of industry as well as the accepted minimum criteria for developing alcohol and drug policies. The model included guidelines and recommendations for employees, supervisors, and owners, employers, and contractors. The responsibilities of associations, organizations, and private companies were also outlined. An overview of recommended implementation plans was provided, as well as details of alcohol and drug use education programs and workplace rules. A supervisor's guide to implementation provided outlines of the causes of drug use among employees. tabs.

UK energy policy ambition and UK energy modelling-fit for purpose?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strachan, Neil

2011-01-01

Aiming to lead amongst other G20 countries, the UK government has classified the twin energy policy priorities of decarbonisation and security of supply as a 'centennial challenge'. This viewpoint discusses the UK's capacity for energy modelling and scenario building as a critical underpinning of iterative decision making to meet these policy ambitions. From a nadir, over the last decade UK modelling expertise has been steadily built up. However extreme challenges remain in the level and consistency of funding of core model teams - critical to ensure a full scope of energy model types and hence insights, and in developing new state-of-the-art models to address evolving uncertainties. Meeting this challenge will facilitate a broad scope of types and geographical scale of UK's analytical tools to responsively deliver the evidence base for a range of public and private sector decision makers, and ensure that the UK contributes to global efforts to advance the field of energy-economic modelling. - Research highlights: → Energy modelling capacity is a critical underpinning for iterative energy policy making. → Full scope of energy models and analytical approaches is required. → Extreme challenges remain in consistent and sustainable funding of energy modelling teams. → National governments that lead in global energy policy also need to invest in modelling capacity.

One stop crisis centres: A policy analysis of the Malaysian response to intimate partner violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Colombini, Manuela; Ali, Siti Hawa; Watts, Charlotte; Mayhew, Susannah H

2011-06-21

This article aims to investigate the processes, actors and other influencing factors behind the development and the national scale-up of the One Stop Crisis Centre (OSCC) policy and the subsequent health model for violence-response. Methods used included policy analysis of legal, policy and regulatory framework documents, and in-depth interviews with key informants from governmental and non-governmental organisations in two States of Malaysia. The findings show that women's NGOs and health professionals were instrumental in the formulation and scaling-up of the OSCC policy. However, the subsequent breakdown of the NGO-health coalition negatively impacted on the long-term implementation of the policy, which lacked financial resources and clear policy guidance from the Ministry of Health. The findings confirm that a clearly-defined partnership between NGOs and health staff can be very powerful for influencing the legal and policy environment in which health care services for intimate partner violence are developed. It is critical to gain high level support from the Ministry of Health in order to institutionalise the violence-response across the entire health care system. Without clear operational details and resources policy implementation cannot be fully ensured and taken to scale.

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haurie, A.; Tavoni, M.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

2011-01-01

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change. Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haurie, A. [ORDECSYS, Geneva (Switzerland); Tavoni, M. [Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [Policy Studies Department, Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2011-07-15

This special issue is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling and stochastic analysis of climate futures. The possibility to use non-probabilistic economic methods to treat uncertainty in global or regional dynamic climate change models is explored as well. Given the intimate link between climate change and the nature of mankind's energy production and consumption system, this special issue also proffers direct practical recommendations for energy decision making at the global, regional, and national levels. The special issue originated from a series of research tasks carried out under the PLANETS project, funded by the European Commission under its 7th Framework Programme and co-coordinated by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN). This project, accomplished in 2010, had, as main focus, how to incorporate uncertainty when carrying out numerical analysis of climate and energy policies. A special PLANETS session was organized during the 2010 edition of the International Energy Workshop (IEW 2010, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm), which generated broad expert discussion on both methodology and policy-related issues. The recognition of the importance of these topics and the diversity of approaches undertaken, plus a concern over them becoming fragmented in the literature, constituted the motivation to edit this special issue gathering the generated material in one orchestrated publication. Several contributions, in the form of 12 papers, have been brought together with the aim of providing a comprehensive overview of some of the main recent developments in the modeling of uncertainty in the economics of climate change. We categorize these 12 articles in five distinct domains in hybrid integrated assessment EEE (Energy

A fully feminist foreign policy? : A postcolonial feminist analysis of Sweden's Feminist Foreign Policy

OpenAIRE

Nylund, Mia-Lie

2017-01-01

This thesis is a postcolonial feminist discourse analysis of Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy. Sweden’s Feminist Foreign Policy is unique to the world, but it is not the only case of incorporating a gender perspective as a central part of national or international politics. Feminism and gender perspectives are increasingly receiving attention and space in global politics. The Swedish case could therefore inform us about where politics are heading. Previous research on the Feminist Foreign Pol...

Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Bataille, Christopher G. F.

2005-11-01

autonomous energy efficiency indices (AEEI) from the model, parameters that could be used in long-run computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The thesis concludes with a summary of the strengths and weakness of the new model as a policy tool, a work plan for its further improvement, and a discussion of the general potential for technologically explicit general equilibrium modelling.

The macroeconomic effects of ambitious energy efficiency policy in Germany – Combining bottom-up energy modelling with a non-equilibrium macroeconomic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartwig, Johannes; Kockat, Judit; Schade, Wolfgang; Braungardt, Sibylle

2017-01-01

Energy efficiency is one of the fastest and most cost-effective contributions to a sustainable, secure and affordable energy system. Furthermore, the so-called “non-energy benefits”, “co-benefits” or “multiple benefits” of energy efficiency are receiving increased interest from policy makers and the scientific community. Among the various non-energy benefits of energy efficiency initiatives, the macroeconomic benefits play an important role. Our study presents a detailed analysis of the long-term macroeconomic effects of German energy efficiency policy including the industry and service sectors as well as residential energy demand. We quantify the macroeconomic effects of an ambitious energy efficiency scenario by combining bottom-up models with an extended dynamic input-output model. We study sectoral shifts within the economy regarding value added and employment compared to the baseline scenario. We provide an in-depth analysis of the effects of energy efficiency policy on consumers, individual industry sectors, and the economy as a whole. We find significant positive macroeconomic effects resulting from energy efficiency initiatives, with growth effects for both GDP and employment ranging between 0.88% and 3.38%. Differences in sectoral gains lead to a shift in the economy. Our methodological approach provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the macroeconomic benefits of energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Integration of detailed sectoral models for energy demand with macroeconomic model. • Detailed assessment of effects of ambitious energy efficiency targets for Germany. • Positive macroeconomic effects can support policymaking and reduce uncertainty.

Political economy models and agricultural policy formation : empirical applicability and relevance for the CAP

OpenAIRE

Zee, van der, F.A.

1997-01-01

This study explores the relevance and applicability of political economy models for the explanation of agricultural policies. Part I (chapters 4-7) takes a general perspective and evaluates the empirical applicability of voting models and interest group models to agricultural policy formation in industrialised market economics. Part II (chapters 8-11) focuses on the empirical applicability of political economy models to agricultural policy formation and agricultural policy developmen...

Energy efficiency policies for space heating in EU countries: A panel data analysis for the period 1990–2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ó Broin, Eoin; Nässén, Jonas; Johnsson, Filip

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Space heating demand between 1990 and 2010 modelled using a panel of 14 EU countries. • The impacts of 260 efficiency polices affecting space heating demand are examined. • Regulatory policies found to have had a greater success than financial or informative. • High priority should be given to regulatory policies for space heating energy goals. - Abstract: We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m 2 /year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy

Fear of Floating: An optimal discretionary monetary policy analysis

OpenAIRE

Madhavi Bokil

2005-01-01

This paper explores the idea that “Fear of Floating” and accompanying pro-cyclical interest rate policies observed in the case of some emerging market economies may be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy response to shocks. The paper also examines how the differences in monetary policies may lead to different degrees of this fear. These questions are addressed with a small open economy, new- Keynesian model with endogenous capital accumulation and sticky prices. The economy ...

Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

Science.gov (United States)

Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

2016-12-01

Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with

A Policy Analysis of Student Attendance Standards Related to State Education Policies

Science.gov (United States)

Guilliams, Mary Elizabeth

2014-01-01

This paper is a project report of a policy analysis of state attendance information available to public schools. Current state attendance information rarely expands beyond compulsory attendance law. It is vague, non-existent or difficult to find. Research provides strong links between student attendance and achievement. Informed school leaders…

Evaluating energy efficiency policies with energy-economy models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mundaca, L.; Neij, L.; Worrell, E.; McNeil, M.

2010-01-01

The growing complexities of energy systems, environmental problems, and technology markets are driving and testing most energy-economy models to their limits. To further advance bottom-up models from a multidisciplinary energy efficiency policy evaluation perspective, we review and critically

Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Feirman, Shari P; Glasser, Allison M; Rose, Shyanika; Niaura, Ray; Abrams, David B; Teplitskaya, Lyubov; Villanti, Andrea C

2017-11-01

Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions. Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively. Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models. Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health. In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and

Integrating agricultural research and policy analysis: analytical framework and policy applications for bio-economic modelling.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruben, R.; Moll, H.; Kuyvenhoven, A.

1998-01-01

Interdisciplinary approaches to identify suitable incentives for enhancing sustainable natural resource use require an analytical framework that satisfies both practical purposes of policy support and disciplinary requirements regarding the specification of underlying technical and behavioural

Analyzing social policy: multiple perspectives for critically understanding and evaluating policy

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

O'Connor, Mary Katherine; Netting, F. Ellen

2011-01-01

"This unique volume outlines the different frameworks of policy analysis and explains how readers can use research and critical thinking skills to understand the different models from their formation...

Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

2018-01-01

Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

Utility based maintenance analysis using a Random Sign censoring model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres Christen, J.; Ruggeri, Fabrizio; Villa, Enrique

2011-01-01

Industrial systems subject to failures are usually inspected when there are evident signs of an imminent failure. Maintenance is therefore performed at a random time, somehow dependent on the failure mechanism. A competing risk model, namely a Random Sign model, is considered to relate failure and maintenance times. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis of the model and apply it to actual data from a water pump in an oil refinery. The design of an optimal maintenance policy is then discussed under a formal decision theoretic approach, analyzing the goodness of the current maintenance policy and making decisions about the optimal maintenance time.

A modelling approach for the assessment of the effects of Common Agricultural Policy measures on farmland biodiversity in the EU27.

Science.gov (United States)

Overmars, Koen P; Helming, John; van Zeijts, Henk; Jansson, Torbjörn; Terluin, Ida

2013-09-15

In this paper we describe a methodology to model the impacts of policy measures within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm production, income and prices, and on farmland biodiversity. Two stylised scenarios are used to illustrate how the method works. The effects of CAP measures, such as subsidies and regulations, are calculated and translated into changes in land use and land-use intensity. These factors are then used to model biodiversity with a species-based indicator on a 1 km scale in the EU27. The Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System (CAPRI) is used to conduct the economic analysis and Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) is used to model land use changes. An indicator that expresses the relative species richness was used as the indicator for biodiversity in agricultural areas. The methodology is illustrated with a baseline scenario and two scenarios that include a specific policy. The strength of the methodology is that impacts of economic policy instruments can be linked to changes in agricultural production, prices and incomes, on the one hand, and to biodiversity effects, on the other - with land use and land-use intensity as the connecting drivers. The method provides an overall assessment, but for detailed impact assessment at landscape, farm or field level, additional analysis would be required. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bankes, Steven C

2002-05-14

Agent-based models (ABM) are examples of complex adaptive systems, which can be characterized as those systems for which no model less complex than the system itself can accurately predict in detail how the system will behave at future times. Consequently, the standard tools of policy analysis, based as they are on devising policies that perform well on some best estimate model of the system, cannot be reliably used for ABM. This paper argues that policy analysis by using ABM requires an alternative approach to decision theory. The general characteristics of such an approach are described, and examples are provided of its application to policy analysis.

Tobacco Town: Computational Modeling of Policy Options to Reduce Tobacco Retailer Density.

Science.gov (United States)

Luke, Douglas A; Hammond, Ross A; Combs, Todd; Sorg, Amy; Kasman, Matt; Mack-Crane, Austen; Ribisl, Kurt M; Henriksen, Lisa

2017-05-01

To identify the behavioral mechanisms and effects of tobacco control policies designed to reduce tobacco retailer density. We developed the Tobacco Town agent-based simulation model to examine 4 types of retailer reduction policies: (1) random retailer reduction, (2) restriction by type of retailer, (3) limiting proximity of retailers to schools, and (4) limiting proximity of retailers to each other. The model examined the effects of these policies alone and in combination across 4 different types of towns, defined by 2 levels of population density (urban vs suburban) and 2 levels of income (higher vs lower). Model results indicated that reduction of retailer density has the potential to decrease accessibility of tobacco products by driving up search and purchase costs. Policy effects varied by town type: proximity policies worked better in dense, urban towns whereas retailer type and random retailer reduction worked better in less-dense, suburban settings. Comprehensive retailer density reduction policies have excellent potential to reduce the public health burden of tobacco use in communities.

Analyzing Public Discourse: Using Media Content Analysis to Understand the Policy Process

Science.gov (United States)

Saraisky, Nancy Green

2016-01-01

One of the most basic and obvious sources of data for education policy analysis is text. This article discusses content analysis as an important part of the methodological toolbox for elucidating patterns and trends about education policy. Focusing specifically on media, I show how media content analysis can produce nuanced insights about the ways…

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael R. Guzy

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural-urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

The Development of a Multisource and a Systematized Database for Economic and Policy Impact Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ec. Filippo Oropallo

2007-02-01

Full Text Available ISTAT is involved in various EU projects with the objective of "supporting the Lisbon objectives, EU governance and the process of national policy coverage with the best EU-wide and national policy impact and evaluation analyses". Existing knowledge on policy impact analyses is approximate. The "facts" on the impact of policies are charted only at the aggregate level and with a high degree of approximation. Macro indicators have well-known pitfalls and drawbacks. Understanding how policies affect economic performance and developing better indicators to gauge their effects is central to endow the EU with a set of efficient and fair policies. The gap in European knowledge and capacity for Policy Impact Analysis is patent. The DIECOFIS EU-FP5 project has taken up the challenge of reducing this gap in the field of taxation. Results have been quite encouraging and have open new vistas for future work. Particularly notable has been the development of a system of micro-founded indicators, based on factuals and counterfactuals, estimated through micro-simulation models. This has led to the current utilization of such a tool in the ex-ante microsimulation of the effects of several reforms of corporate taxation

Mutual perceptions between nuclear plant employees and general public on nuclear policy communication applying the Co-orientation analysis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Bong Chul; Kim, Ji Hyun; Chung, Woon Kwan

2015-01-01

This study examines mutual perceptions between general public and nuclear plant employees on understanding nuclear policy communication applying the co-orientation model. The total of 414 responses were analyzed including 211 of the general public and 203 of plant employees. Results indicate that agreement between general public and plant employees is relatively high, in that general public tends to have negative evaluation to nuclear policy communication, but plant employees tends to have positive one. In terms of congruence, general public perceive that plant employees might have more positive evaluation than themselves, and nuclear plant employees perceive that general public might have more negative evaluation than themselves. Finally, in terms of accuracy, general public accurately estimate how nuclear plant employees perceive on policy communication, whereas nuclear plant employees unaccurately estimate how general public perceive on policy communication

Mutual perceptions between nuclear plant employees and general public on nuclear policy communication applying the Co-orientation analysis model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Bong Chul; Kim, Ji Hyun; Chung, Woon Kwan [Chosun University, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

This study examines mutual perceptions between general public and nuclear plant employees on understanding nuclear policy communication applying the co-orientation model. The total of 414 responses were analyzed including 211 of the general public and 203 of plant employees. Results indicate that agreement between general public and plant employees is relatively high, in that general public tends to have negative evaluation to nuclear policy communication, but plant employees tends to have positive one. In terms of congruence, general public perceive that plant employees might have more positive evaluation than themselves, and nuclear plant employees perceive that general public might have more negative evaluation than themselves. Finally, in terms of accuracy, general public accurately estimate how nuclear plant employees perceive on policy communication, whereas nuclear plant employees unaccurately estimate how general public perceive on policy communication.

Modeling and Recognizing Policy Conflicts with Resource Access Requests on Protected Health Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raik Kuhlisch

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This article discusses potential clashes between different types of security policies that regulate resource access requests on clinical patient data in hospitals by employees. Attribute-based Access Control (ABAC is proposed as a proper means for such regulation. A proper representation of ABAC policies must include a handling of policy attributes among different policy types. In this article, we propose a semantic policy model with predefined policy conflict categories. A conformance verification function detects erroneous, clashing or mutually susceptible rules early during the policy planning phase. The model and conflicts are used in a conceptual application environment and evaluated in a technical experiment during an interoperability test event.

Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelstam, Per; Mikusiński, Grzegorz; Rönnbäck, Britt-Inger; Ostman, Anders; Lazdinis, Marius; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Arnberg, Wolter; Olsson, Jan

2003-12-01

The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.

Multi-criteria analysis of innovation policies in favour of solar mobility in France by 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popiolek, Nathalie; Thais, Françoise

2016-01-01

As part of France's political intentions to reduce CO_2 emissions in building and transport, this work offers an analysis from the perspective of a public authority on the various innovation policies for the deployment of electric vehicles powered by solar photovoltaic electricity (PV) by the year 2030. This innovation involves enhancing the synergy between buildings and mobility by associating positive energy houses with electric vehicles. The vehicle battery, charged primarily using PV electricity, could also provide a way of storing intermittent solar-generated electricity for later use. The aim of this article is to implement a decision-making model for public administration which can select the best innovation policies based on a number of criteria reflecting their major goals in terms of policies relating to energy, economics, social cohesion and “factor 4″ (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared with 1990 levels). The methodology developed herein has been applied to a concrete case, with some resulting recommendations which may be of use for the public authorities: simultaneously combine research in favour of solar mobility technologies and apply a relatively high carbon tax. Such recommendations are mitigated by the choice of the data set and the methodological shortcomings. - Highlights: • Public Policies are examined in order to deploy solar mobility in France by 2030. • A multi-criteria decision making model is implemented to select the best policies. • For each policy, 8 criteria are evaluated compared to the business as usual policy. • Assumptions about decision-making environment are combined to define future scenarios. • The best policies are the R&D support on technologies with a high carbon tax.

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ROŞOIU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

Pitfalls of CITES Implementation in Nepal: A Policy Gap Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T.

2012-08-01

Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

Is Aboriginal nutrition a priority for local government? A policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Helson, Catherine; Walker, Ruth; Palermo, Claire; Rounsefell, Kim; Aron, Yudit; MacDonald, Catherine; Atkinson, Petah; Browne, Jennifer

2017-11-01

The present study aimed to explore how Australian local governments prioritise the health and well-being of Aboriginal populations and the extent to which nutrition is addressed by local government health policy. In the state of Victoria, Australia, all seventy-nine local governments' public health policy documents were retrieved. Inclusion of Aboriginal health and nutrition in policy documents was analysed using quantitative content analysis. Representation of Aboriginal nutrition 'problems' and 'solutions' was examined using qualitative framing analysis. The socio-ecological framework was used to classify the types of Aboriginal nutrition issues and strategies within policy documents. Victoria, Australia. Local governments' public health policy documents (n 79). A small proportion (14 %, n 11) of local governments addressed Aboriginal health and well-being in terms of nutrition. Where strategies aimed at nutrition existed, they mostly focused on individual factors rather than the broader macroenvironment. A limited number of Victorian local governments address nutrition as a health issue for their Aboriginal populations in policy documents. Nutrition needs to be addressed as a community and social responsibility rather than merely an individual 'behaviour'. Partnerships are required to ensure Aboriginal people lead government policy development.

A Model for Good Governance of Healthcare Technology Management in the Public Sector: Learning from Evidence-Informed Policy Development and Implementation in Benin.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P Th Houngbo

Full Text Available Good governance (GG is an important concept that has evolved as a set of normative principles for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs to strengthen the functional capacity of their public bodies, and as a conditional prerequisite to receive donor funding. Although much is written on good governance, very little is known on how to implement it. This paper documents the process of developing a strategy to implement a GG model for Health Technology Management (HTM in the public health sector, based on lessons learned from twenty years of experience in policy development and implementation in Benin. The model comprises six phases: (i preparatory analysis, assessing the effects of previous policies and characterizing the HTM system; (ii stakeholder identification and problem analysis, making explicit the perceptions of problems by a diverse range of actors, and assessing their ability to solve these problems; (iii shared analysis and visioning, delineating the root causes of problems and hypothesizing solutions; (iv development of policy instruments for pilot testing, based on quick-win solutions to understand the system's responses to change; (v policy development and validation, translating the consensus solutions identified by stakeholders into a policy; and (vi policy implementation and evaluation, implementing the policy through a cycle of planning, action, observation and reflection. The policy development process can be characterized as bottom-up, with a central focus on the participation of diverse stakeholders groups. Interactive and analytical tools of action research were used to integrate knowledge amongst actor groups, identify consensus solutions and develop the policy in a way that satisfies criteria of GG. This model could be useful for other LMICs where resources are constrained and the majority of healthcare technologies are imported.

One stop crisis centres: A policy analysis of the Malaysian response to intimate partner violence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Watts Charlotte

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This article aims to investigate the processes, actors and other influencing factors behind the development and the national scale-up of the One Stop Crisis Centre (OSCC policy and the subsequent health model for violence-response. Methods Methods used included policy analysis of legal, policy and regulatory framework documents, and in-depth interviews with key informants from governmental and non-governmental organisations in two States of Malaysia. Results The findings show that women's NGOs and health professionals were instrumental in the formulation and scaling-up of the OSCC policy. However, the subsequent breakdown of the NGO-health coalition negatively impacted on the long-term implementation of the policy, which lacked financial resources and clear policy guidance from the Ministry of Health. Conclusion The findings confirm that a clearly-defined partnership between NGOs and health staff can be very powerful for influencing the legal and policy environment in which health care services for intimate partner violence are developed. It is critical to gain high level support from the Ministry of Health in order to institutionalise the violence-response across the entire health care system. Without clear operational details and resources policy implementation cannot be fully ensured and taken to scale.

Assessment of air quality management policies in China with integrated model framework: Case study for Hebei province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Zhao, Q.; Zheng, B.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.; Yang, W.; He, K.

2015-12-01

The Chinese government has pledged to clean urban air within five years from 2013 to 2017, to promote annual average PM2.5 concentration decline by 25%, 20% and 15% in the North China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, respectively. The national targets are disaggregated into provinces, where region-specific action plan is designed and implemented by local government. It is particularly important to timely assess the effectiveness of local emission control measures and guarantee local efforts are in line with the national goal. We develop an integrated model framework for air quality management and policy evaluation, by integrating a dynamic high-resolution emission model, an emission scenarios analysis tool, and a 3-D air quality model. We then put the model system into pilot use in Hebei province for policy making to achieve the air quality target of 2017. We first integrate over 3000 point source facilities into this system to develop a high-resolution emission inventory. Upon the base emission dataset, the efforts to mitigate emissions with current and enacted measures are tracked and quantified to dynamic account of emission changes monthly. Strict policies are designed within the model framework through analyzing the potential to cut emissions for each point source. The finalized policy package can reduce emissions of major air pollutants by 20%-40%, respectively, leading to large decrease of ambient PM2.5 concentration.

Modeling the Heterogeneous Effects of GHG Mitigation Policies on Global Agriculture and Forestry

Science.gov (United States)

Golub, A.; Henderson, B.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.; Sohngen, B.

2010-12-01

Agriculture and forestry are envisioned as potentially key sectors for climate change mitigation policy, yet the depth of analysis of mitigation options and their economic consequences remains remarkably shallow in comparison to that for industrial mitigation. Farming and land use change - much of it induced by agriculture -account for one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Any serious attempt to curtail these emissions will involve changes in the way farming is conducted, as well as placing limits on agricultural expansion into areas currently under more carbon-intensive land cover. However, agriculture and forestry are extremely heterogeneous, both in the technology and intensity of production, as well as in the GHG emissions intensity of these activities. And these differences, in turn, give rise to significant changes in the distribution of agricultural production, trade and consumption in the wake of mitigation policies. This paper assesses such distributional impacts via a global economic analysis undertaken with a modified version of the GTAP model. The paper builds on a global general equilibrium GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009). This is a unified modeling framework that links the agricultural, forestry, food processing and other sectors through land, and other factor markets and international trade, and incorporates different land-types, land uses and related CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions and sequestration. The economic data underlying this work is the global GTAP data base aggregated up to 19 regions and 29 sectors. The model incorporates mitigation cost curves for different regions and sectors based on information from the US-EPA. The forestry component of the model is calibrated to the results of the state of the art partial equilibrium global forestry model of Sohngen and Mendelson (2007). Forest carbon sequestration at both the extensive and intensive margins are modeled separately to better isolate land competition between

A comparative analysis of capacity adequacy policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doorman, Gerard; Botterud, Audun; Wolfgang, Ove

2007-06-01

In this paper a stochastic dynamic optimization model is used to analyze the effect of different generation adequacy policies in restructured power systems. The expansion decisions of profit-maximizing investors are simulated under a number of different market designs: Energy Only with and without a price cap, Capacity Payment, Capacity Obligation, Capacity Subscription, and Demand Elasticity. The results show that the overall social welfare is reduced compared to a centralized social welfare optimization for all policies except Capacity Subscription and Demand Elasticity. In particular, an energy only market with a low price cap leads to a significant increase in involuntary load shedding. Capacity payments and obligations give additional investment incentives and more generating capacity, but also result in a considerable transfer of wealth from consumers to producers due to the capacity payments. Increased demand elasticity increases social welfare, but also results in a transfer from producers to consumers, compared to the theoretical social welfare optimum. In contrast, the capacity subscription policy increases the social welfare, and both producers and consumers benefit. This is possible because capacity subscription explicitly utilizes differences in consumers' preferences for uninterrupted supply. This advantage must be weighed against the cost of implementation, which is not included in the model.

ANALYSIS IMPORT POLICY OF SOYBEAN ON ECONOMICS PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN SOYBEAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muthiah Abda Azizah

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Trade liberalization is closely related to the opening of market access for Indonesian products to the world and vice versa. Since the soybean trade out of BULOG control began in 1998, soybean imports increased very rapidly (Sudaryanto and Swastika, 2007. This research aims to determine the general picture of soybean economy, factors analyses that influence the economic performance of Indonesian soybean and findings the alternative of policies that can reduce soybean imports in Indonesia. Methods of data analysis are descriptive analysis, 2SLS simultaneous equations, and simulation of policy alternatives. Results of the analysis of the factors that affect the economic performance of Indonesian soybean, consists of 1 The area of soybean harvest is influenced significantly by the price of domestic soybean and domestic prices of corn, 2 Productivity soybean influenced significantly by the domestic prices of soybean and fertilizer prices, 3 soybean demand influenced significantly by population, domestic prices of soybean, 4 domestic prices of soybean significantly affected by world prices of soybean, exchange rates, and soybean supply, 5 Imports of soybean influenced significantly by the domestic demand of soybean and soybean production. Therefore, policy scenarios should be made to reduce soybean imports, including by carrying out the expansion of soybean harvest policy, the policy of increasing the productivity of soybean, the policy of subsidizing the price of fertilizer.

A Simple Forecasting Model Linking Macroeconomic Policy to Industrial Employment Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Malley, James R.; Hady, Thomas F.

A study detailed further a model linking monetary and fiscal policy to industrial employment in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas of four United States regions. The model was used to simulate the impacts on area and regional employment of three events in the economy: changing real gross national product (GNP) via monetary policy, holding the…

Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing in bottom-up energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berglund, Christer; Soederholm, Patrik

2006-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview and a critical analysis of the recent literature on incorporating induced technical change in energy systems models. Special emphasis is put on surveying recent studies aimed at integrating learning-by-doing into bottom-up energy systems models through so-called learning curves, and on analyzing the relevance of learning curve analysis for understanding the process of innovation and technology diffusion in the energy sector. The survey indicates that this model work represents a major advance in energy research, and embeds important policy implications, not the least concerning the cost and the timing of environmental policies (including carbon emission constraints). However, bottom-up energy models with endogenous learning are also limited in their characterization of technology diffusion and innovation. While they provide a detailed account of technical options-which is absent in many top-down models-they also lack important aspects of diffusion behavior that are captured in top-down representations. For instance, they often fail in capturing strategic technology diffusion behavior in the energy sector as well as the energy sector's endogenous responses to policy, and they neglect important general equilibrium impacts (such as the opportunity cost of redirecting R and D support to the energy sector). Some suggestions on how innovation and diffusion modeling in bottom-up analysis can be improved are put forward

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuldna, Piret; Peterson, Kaja; Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli

2015-01-01

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuldna, Piret, E-mail: piret.kuldna@seit.ee [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Peterson, Kaja [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Kuhi-Thalfeldt, Reeli [Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Lai 34, Tallinn 10133 (Estonia); Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086 (Estonia)

2015-09-15

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

Canadian energy and climate policies: A SWOT analysis in search of federal/provincial coherence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fertel, Camille; Bahn, Olivier; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Waaub, Jean-Philippe

2013-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of Canadian energy and climate policies in terms of the coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. After briefly describing the institutional, energy, and climate contexts, we perform a SWOT analysis on the themes of energy security, energy efficiency, and technology and innovation. Within this analytical framework, we discuss the coherence of federal and provincial policies and of energy and climate policies. Our analysis shows that there is a lack of consistency in the Canadian energy and climate strategies beyond the application of market principles. Furthermore, in certain sectors, the Canadian approach amounts to an amalgam of decisions made at a provincial level without cooperation with other provinces or with the federal government. One way to improve policy coherence would be to increase the cooperation between the different jurisdictions by using a combination of policy tools and by relying on existing intergovernmental agencies. - Highlights: • We perform a SWOT analysis of the Canadian energy and climate policies. • We analyse policy coherence between federal and provincial/territorial strategies. • We show that a lack of coordination leads to a weak coherence among policies. • The absence of cooperation results in additional costs for Canada

An intersectionality-based policy analysis framework: critical reflections on a methodology for advancing equity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hankivsky, Olena; Grace, Daniel; Hunting, Gemma; Giesbrecht, Melissa; Fridkin, Alycia; Rudrum, Sarah; Ferlatte, Olivier; Clark, Natalie

2014-12-10

In the field of health, numerous frameworks have emerged that advance understandings of the differential impacts of health policies to produce inclusive and socially just health outcomes. In this paper, we present the development of an important contribution to these efforts - an Intersectionality-Based Policy Analysis (IBPA) Framework. Developed over the course of two years in consultation with key stakeholders and drawing on best and promising practices of other equity-informed approaches, this participatory and iterative IBPA Framework provides guidance and direction for researchers, civil society, public health professionals and policy actors seeking to address the challenges of health inequities across diverse populations. Importantly, we present the application of the IBPA Framework in seven priority health-related policy case studies. The analysis of each case study is focused on explaining how IBPA: 1) provides an innovative structure for critical policy analysis; 2) captures the different dimensions of policy contexts including history, politics, everyday lived experiences, diverse knowledges and intersecting social locations; and 3) generates transformative insights, knowledge, policy solutions and actions that cannot be gleaned from other equity-focused policy frameworks. The aim of this paper is to inspire a range of policy actors to recognize the potential of IBPA to foreground the complex contexts of health and social problems, and ultimately to transform how policy analysis is undertaken.

Spatial analysis of agri-environmental policy uptake and expenditure in Scotland.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Anastasia L; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Wilson, Ronald M; Haggett, Claire

2014-01-15

Agri-environment is one of the most widely supported rural development policy measures in Scotland in terms of number of participants and expenditure. It comprises 69 management options and sub-options that are delivered primarily through the competitive 'Rural Priorities scheme'. Understanding the spatial determinants of uptake and expenditure would assist policy-makers in guiding future policy targeting efforts for the rural environment. This study is unique in examining the spatial dependency and determinants of Scotland's agri-environmental measures and categorised options uptake and payments at the parish level. Spatial econometrics is applied to test the influence of 40 explanatory variables on farming characteristics, land capability, designated sites, accessibility and population. Results identified spatial dependency for each of the dependent variables, which supported the use of spatially-explicit models. The goodness of fit of the spatial models was better than for the aspatial regression models. There was also notable improvement in the models for participation compared with the models for expenditure. Furthermore a range of expected explanatory variables were found to be significant and varied according to the dependent variable used. The majority of models for both payment and uptake showed a significant positive relationship with SSSI (Sites of Special Scientific Interest), which are designated sites prioritised in Scottish policy. These results indicate that environmental targeting efforts by the government for AEP uptake in designated sites can be effective. However habitats outside of SSSI, termed here the 'wider countryside' may not be sufficiently competitive to receive funding in the current policy system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social media for public health: an exploratory policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fast, Ingrid; Sørensen, Kristine; Brand, Helmut; Suggs, L Suzanne

2015-02-01

To accomplish the aims of public health practice and policy today, new forms of communication and education are being applied. Social media are increasingly relevant for public health and used by various actors. Apart from benefits, there can also be risks in using social media, but policies regulating engagement in social media is not well researched. This study examined European public health-related organizations' social media policies and describes the main components of existing policies. This research used a mixed methods approach. A content analysis of social media policies from European institutions, non-government organizations (NGOs) and social media platforms was conducted. Next, individuals responsible for social media in their organization or projects completed a survey about their social media policy. Seventy-five per cent of institutions, NGOs and platforms had a social media policy available. The primary aspects covered within existing policies included data and privacy protection, intellectual property and copyright protection and regulations for the engagement in social media. Policies were intended to regulate staff use, to secure the liability of the institution and social responsibility. Respondents also stressed the importance of self-responsibility when using social media. This study of social media policies for public health in Europe provides a first snapshot of the existence and characteristics of social media policies among European health organizations. Policies tended to focus on legal aspects, rather than the health of the social media user. The effect of such policies on social media adoption and usage behaviour remains to be examined. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Remotely Sensed Data for High Resolution Agro-Environmental Policy Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Welle, Paul

Policy analyses of agricultural and environmental systems are often limited due to data constraints. Measurement campaigns can be costly, especially when the area of interest includes oceans, forests, agricultural regions or other dispersed spatial domains. Satellite based remote sensing offers a way to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of policy analysis concerning these systems. However, there are key limitations to the implementation of satellite data. Uncertainty in data derived from remote-sensing can be significant, and traditional methods of policy analysis for managing uncertainty on large datasets can be computationally expensive. Moreover, while satellite data can increasingly offer estimates of some parameters such as weather or crop use, other information regarding demographic or economic data is unlikely to be estimated using these techniques. Managing these challenges in practical policy analysis remains a challenge. In this dissertation, I conduct five case studies which rely heavily on data sourced from orbital sensors. First, I assess the magnitude of climate and anthropogenic stress on coral reef ecosystems. Second, I conduct an impact assessment of soil salinity on California agriculture. Third, I measure the propensity of growers to adapt their cropping practices to soil salinization in agriculture. Fourth, I analyze whether small-scale desalination units could be applied on farms in California in order mitigate the effects of drought and salinization as well as prevent agricultural drainage from entering vulnerable ecosystems. And fifth, I assess the feasibility of satellite-based remote sensing for salinity measurement at global scale. Through these case studies, I confront both the challenges and benefits associated with implementing satellite based-remote sensing for improved policy analysis.

Analysis of Public Policies for Sexuality Education in Germany and The Netherlands

Science.gov (United States)

Aronowitz, Teri; Fawcett, Jacqueline

2015-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present an analysis of the philosophical, historical, sociological, political, and economic perspectives reflected in the public policies about lifespan sexuality education of Germany and The Netherlands. A new conceptual framework for analysis and evaluation of sexuality education policies that integrates the…

Hierarchical analysis of acceptable use policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. A. Laughton

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Acceptable use policies (AUPs are vital tools for organizations to protect themselves and their employees from misuse of computer facilities provided. A well structured, thorough AUP is essential for any organization. It is impossible for an effective AUP to deal with every clause and remain readable. For this reason, some sections of an AUP carry more weight than others, denoting importance. The methodology used to develop the hierarchical analysis is a literature review, where various sources were consulted. This hierarchical approach to AUP analysis attempts to highlight important sections and clauses dealt with in an AUP. The emphasis of the hierarchal analysis is to prioritize the objectives of an AUP.

[Policy analysis: study of public policy of environmental health in a metropolis of northeastern Brazil].

Science.gov (United States)

Lyra, Tereza Maciel; Araújo Júnior, José Luiz do Amaral Correa de

2014-09-01

The analysis of health policies has improved in Brazil despite a plethora of different methodological approaches. Based on the model developed by Walt and Gilson in 1994, the Environmental Health Program (EHP) of Recife as a policy based on the Health Promotion principles of the Unified Health System (SUS) and Agenda 21 was analyzed. An attempt was made to understand the context during the development and implementation of the EHP, the drafting process and which actors influenced the EHP agenda content and proposal. A qualitative case study was conducted, with semi-structured interviews with key actors. In terms of context, the findings include the influence of the municipal election, the socio-sanitary characteristics of Recife, the choice of the Secretary of Health and the management teams, acceptance by the technicians and the funding increase. In terms of the process, the acceptance of the managers must be stressed. Regarding the actors, the managers, sector technicians, non-sectorial actors with viability studies stood out. The content of the EHP coincided with the SUS and Health Promotion principles. Implementation was influenced by the dengue fever epidemic (2002), and cultural institutional factors that put pressure on the order of implementation of the planned actions.

Building a maintenance policy through a multi-criterion decision-making model

Science.gov (United States)

Faghihinia, Elahe; Mollaverdi, Naser

2012-08-01

A major competitive advantage of production and service systems is establishing a proper maintenance policy. Therefore, maintenance managers should make maintenance decisions that best fit their systems. Multi-criterion decision-making methods can take into account a number of aspects associated with the competitiveness factors of a system. This paper presents a multi-criterion decision-aided maintenance model with three criteria that have more influence on decision making: reliability, maintenance cost, and maintenance downtime. The Bayesian approach has been applied to confront maintenance failure data shortage. Therefore, the model seeks to make the best compromise between these three criteria and establish replacement intervals using Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE II), integrating the Bayesian approach with regard to the preference of the decision maker to the problem. Finally, using a numerical application, the model has been illustrated, and for a visual realization and an illustrative sensitivity analysis, PROMETHEE GAIA (the visual interactive module) has been used. Use of PROMETHEE II and PROMETHEE GAIA has been made with Decision Lab software. A sensitivity analysis has been made to verify the robustness of certain parameters of the model.

Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangjin Tian

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Berton Lee; Taylor, Jonathan G.; Burkardt, Nina; Ponds, Phadrea D.

1998-01-01

How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience with these workshops led us to conclude that the LIAM can be an effective tool to begin a negotiation and that trust built through the workshops can help create a successful result.

Model Based Analysis of Insider Threats

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Taolue; Han, Tingting; Kammueller, Florian

2016-01-01

In order to detect malicious insider attacks it is important to model and analyse infrastructures and policies of organisations and the insiders acting within them. We extend formal approaches that allow modelling such scenarios by quantitative aspects to enable a precise analysis of security...... designs. Our framework enables evaluating the risks of an insider attack to happen quantitatively. The framework first identifies an insider's intention to perform an inside attack, using Bayesian networks, and in a second phase computes the probability of success for an inside attack by this actor, using...

Simulating the impact of policy, energy prices and technological progress on the passenger car fleet in Austria-A model based analysis 2010-2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloess, Maximilian; Mueller, Andreas

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of policy, fuel prices and technological progress on the Austrian passenger car fleet in terms of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse these effects a simulation model is used. We model the car fleet from a bottom-up perspective, with a detailed coverage of vehicle specifications and propulsion technologies. The model focuses on the technological trend toward electrified propulsion systems and their potential effects on the fleet's energy consumption and GHG emissions. To represent the impact of prices and income on the development of the fleet, we combine the fleet model with top-down demand models. We developed two scenarios for the time frame 2010-2050, using two different sets of assumptions for regulatory development and conditions of increasing fossil fuel prices and continuous technological progress in vehicle propulsion technologies. The results indicate that material cuts in energy consumption and GHG emissions can be achieved with changes to the political framework for passenger cars. Appropriate taxation of fuels and cars can stabilise demand for individual motorised transport and lead to an improvement in vehicle efficiency by fostering the adoption of efficient vehicle propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels. - Highlights: → We present a simulation model for future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → We develop scenarios up to 2050 assuming two different policy schemes. → Policy strongly affects energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in passenger car transport. → Policy can slow down growth in demand for passenger car transport. → Policy can promote the diffusion of more efficient propulsion technologies and low carbon fuels.

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Blair, N.; Jenkin, T.; Milford, J.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.; Evans, D.; Lieberman, E.; Goldstein, G.; Wright, E.; Jayaraman, K.; Venkatech, B.; Kleiman, G.; Namovicz, C.; Smith, B.; Palmer, K.; Wiser, R.; Wood, F.

2009-09-30

The Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling and Analysis Partnership (REMAP) sponsors ongoing workshops to discuss individual 'renewable' technologies, energy/economic modeling, and - to some extent - policy issues related to renewable energy. Since 2002, the group has organized seven workshops, each focusing on a different renewable technology (geothermal, solar, wind, etc.). These workshops originated and continue to be run under an informal partnership of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE). EPA originally funded the activities, but support is now shared between EPA and EERE. REMAP has a wide range of participating analysts and models/modelers that come from government, the private sector, and academia. Modelers include staff from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), NREL, EPA, Resources for the Future (RFF), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), ICF International, OnLocation Inc., and Boston University. The working group has more than 40 members, which also includes representatives from DOE, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), Massachusetts Renewable Energy Trust, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and ACORE. This report summarizes the activities and findings of the REMAP activity that started in late 2006 with a kickoff meeting, and concluded in mid-2008 with presentations of final results. As the project evolved, the group compared results across models and across technologies rather than just examining a specific technology or activity. The overall goal was to better understand how and why different energy models give similar

Pandemic H1N1 in Canada and the use of evidence in developing public health policies--a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosella, Laura C; Wilson, Kumanan; Crowcroft, Natasha S; Chu, Anna; Upshur, Ross; Willison, Donald; Deeks, Shelley L; Schwartz, Brian; Tustin, Jordan; Sider, Doug; Goel, Vivek

2013-04-01

When responding to a novel infectious disease outbreak, policies are set under time constraints and uncertainty which can limit the ability to control the outbreak and result in unintended consequences including lack of public confidence. The H1N1 pandemic highlighted challenges in public health decision-making during a public health emergency. Understanding this process to identify barriers and modifiable influences is important to improve the response to future emergencies. The purpose of this study is to examine the H1N1 pandemic decision-making process in Canada with an emphasis on the use of evidence for public health decisions. Using semi-structured key informant interviews conducted after the pandemic (July-November 2010) and a document analysis, we examined four highly debated pandemic policies: use of adjuvanted vaccine by pregnant women, vaccine priority groups and sequencing, school closures and personal protective equipment. Data were analysed for thematic content guided by Lomas' policy decision-making framework as well as indicative coding using iterative methods. We interviewed 40 public health officials and scientific advisors across Canada and reviewed 76 pandemic policy documents. Our analysis revealed that pandemic pre-planning resulted in strong beliefs, which defined the decision-making process. Existing ideological perspectives of evidence strongly influenced how information was used such that the same evidentiary sources were interpreted differently according to the ideological perspective. Participants recognized that current models for public health decision-making failed to make explicit the roles of scientific evidence in relation to contextual factors. Conflict avoidance theory explained policy decisions that went against the prevailing evidence. Clarification of roles and responsibilities within the public health system would reduce duplication and maintain credibility. A more transparent and iterative approach to incorporating evidence

How much monetary policy rules do we need to estimate DSGE model for Russia?

OpenAIRE

Shulgin, Andrei

2014-01-01

This paper presents a three-sector DSGE model for a small open economy under the intermediate exchange rate regime. The central bank balance sheet equations are added to allow introducing two different monetary policy rules in the model. The principal question is how many independent monetary policy rules we need to describe Russian monetary policy in 2001–2012. To get an answer we perform Bayesian estimation of the DSGE model for four different combinations of monetary policy rules. The main...

Introduction of male circumcision for HIV prevention in Uganda: analysis of the policy process.

Science.gov (United States)

Odoch, Walter Denis; Kabali, Kenneth; Ankunda, Racheal; Zulu, Joseph Mumba; Tetui, Moses

2015-06-20

Health policy analysis is important for all health policies especially in fields with ever changing evidence-based interventions such as HIV prevention. However, there are few published reports of health policy analysis in sub-Saharan Africa in this field. This study explored the policy process of the introduction of male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention in Uganda in order to inform the development processes of similar health policies. Desk review of relevant documents was conducted between March and May 2012. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Conceptual frameworks that demonstrate the interrelationship within the policy development processes and influence of actors in the policy development processes guided the analysis. Following the introduction of MC on the national policy agenda in 2007, negotiation and policy formulation preceded its communication and implementation. Policy proponents included academic researchers in the early 2000s and development partners around 2007. Favourable contextual factors that supported the development of the policy included the rising HIV prevalence, adoption of MC for HIV prevention in other sub-Saharan African countries, and expertise on MC. Additionally, the networking capability of proponents facilitated the change in position of non-supportive or neutral actors. Non-supportive and neutral actors in the initial stages of the policy development process included the Ministry of Health, traditional and Muslim leaders, and the Republican President. Using political authority, legitimacy, and charisma, actors who opposed the policy tried to block the policy development process. Researchers' initial disregard of the Ministry of Health in the research process of MC and the missing civil society advocacy arm contributed to delays in the policy development process. This study underscores the importance of securing top political leadership as well as key implementing partners' support in policy development processes

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

EOQ Model for Delayed Deteriorating Items with Shortages and Trade Credit Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R Sundararajan

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with a deterministic inventory model for deteriorating items under the condition of permissible delay in payments with constant demand rate is a function of time which differs from before and after deterioration for a single item. Shortages are allowed and completely backlogged which is a function of time. Under these assumptions, this paper develops a retailer's model for obtaining an optimal cycle length and ordering quantity in deteriorating items of an inventory model. Thus, our objective is retailer's cost minimization problem to nd an optimal replenishment policy under various parameters. The convexity of the objective function is derived and the numerical examples are provided to support the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters of the model is included and the implications are discussed.

Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

2015-04-01

Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

The effectiveness of China's wind power policy: An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Xiaoli; Li, Shujie; Zhang, Sufang; Yang, Rui; Liu, Suwei

2016-01-01

Along with China's rapid industrialization and urbanization, challenges in reducing pollution and CO_2 emissions are increasing. One of the major approaches to coordinate economic growth and environmental protection is to substitute coal-fired power with renewable energy. Since 2003, in order to promote wind power development, China has put in place many support policies which fall into either price policy category or non-price policy category. By using a variable intercept and mixed regression model with provincial panel data during 2001–2013, we analyzed the impacts of both categories on the increase of installed capacity in areas with different wind resources. We found that price policy and two non-price policies had positive impacts on the increase of wind power installation, price policy played a greater role than non-price policy did in promoting wind power development, and price policy was more effective in areas with poor wind resources, whilst non- price policy was more effective in areas with rich wind resources. Built on these findings, conclusions and policy recommendations are provided at the end of the paper. - Highlights: •We study the impact of price policy on China's new wind power capacity. •Four non-price policies impact on China's new wind power capacity is studied. •Price policy is more effective in wind power increase than non-price policy. •Price policy is more effective than non-price policy in wind non-rich areas. •Non-price policy is more effective than price policy in wind rich areas.

Multiattribute Utility Analysis: The Case of Filipino Rice Policy

OpenAIRE

Gordon C. Rausser; Joseph Yassour

1981-01-01

Major uncertainties and conflicting objectives often arise in public policy analysis. This paper advances a framework that is appropriate for public policy problems frequently encountered in agriculture and food systems. Among other possible benefits, its principal value is to provide focus on the major conflicts, trade-offs, and subjective perceptions among affected groups. It can be used to isolate major disagreements, needed empirical evidence, appropriate degrees of risk aversion, equity ...

Barriers' and policies' analysis of China's building energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Yurong; Wang, Yuanfeng

2013-01-01

With the rapid economic growth and the improvement of people's living standards, China's building energy consumption has kept rising during the past 15 years. Under the effort of the Chinese government and the society, China's building energy efficiency has made certain achievements. However, the implementation of building energy efficiency in China is still far from its potential. Based on the analysis of the existing policies implemented in China, the article concluded that the most essential and the most effective ways to promote building energy efficiency is the government's involvement as well as economic and financial incentives. In addition, the main barriers in the process of promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified in six aspects. It has been found that the legal system and administrative issues constitute major barriers, and the lack of financial incentives and the mismatching of market mechanism also hamper the promotion of building energy efficiency. Finally, in view of the existing policies and barriers analysis, three corresponding policy proposals are presented. -- Highlights: •The existing policies implemented in China from three aspects are presented and analysed. •The Government's involvement is the most essential effective way to promote building-energy efficiency. •Six aspects of barriers in promoting building energy efficiency in China are identified. •The legal system and administrative issues constitute the major barriers. •Three policy proposals to further promote building energy efficiency in China are proposed

Smoker-free workplace policies: developing a model of public health consequences of workplace policies barring employment to smokers.

Science.gov (United States)

Houle, B; Siegel, M

2009-02-01

A marked shift in tobacco-related workplace health promotion intervention involves the adoption of policies barring employment to smokers. We discuss the potential public health consequences of these policies on those affected-smokers, their families, the surrounding community and society at large. We find a lack of published evidence evaluating the effectiveness and consequences of these policies. By developing a model of policy effects, we outline possible unintended consequences. With such large gaps in the evidence base and the potential for deleterious consequences, we argue for increased discussion about the use of smoker-free employment policies as a public health intervention and for increased engagement of employers by the public health community in worksite health promotion.

Markov switching monetary policy in a two-country DSGE model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mavromatis, K.

2012-01-01

In this paper I show, using both empirical and theoretical analysis, that changes in monetary policy in one country can have important e.ects on other economies. My ew empirical evidence shows that changes in the monetary policy behaviour of the Fed since the start of the Euro, well captured by a

Streamlining Policy Creation in Policy Frameworks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.A. Hills (Mark); N. Martí-Oliet; M. Palomino

2012-01-01

textabstract{\\it Policy frameworks} provide a technique for improving reuse in program analysis: the same language frontend, and a core analysis semantics, can be shared among multiple analysis policies for the same language, while analysis domains (such as units of measurement) can be shared among

Analysis of Carbon Policies for Electricity Networks with High Penetration of Green Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Feijoo, Felipe A.

In recent decades, climate change has become one of the most crucial challenges for humanity. Climate change has a direct correlation with global warming, caused mainly by the green house gas emissions (GHG). The Environmental Protection Agency in the U.S. (EPA) attributes carbon dioxide to account for approximately 82% of the GHG emissions. Unfortunately, the energy sector is the main producer of carbon dioxide, with China and the U.S. as the highest emitters. Therefore, there is a strong (positive) correlation between energy production, global warming, and climate change. Stringent carbon emissions reduction targets have been established in order to reduce the impacts of GHG. Achieving these emissions reduction goals will require implementation of policies like as cap-and-trade and carbon taxes, together with transformation of the electricity grid into a smarter system with high green energy penetration. However, the consideration of policies solely in view of carbon emissions reduction may adversely impact other market outcomes such as electricity prices and consumption. In this dissertation, a two-layer mathematical-statistical framework is presented, that serves to develop carbon policies to reduce emissions level while minimizing the negative impacts on other market outcomes. The bottom layer of the two layer model comprises a bi-level optimization problem. The top layer comprises a statistical model and a Pareto analysis. Two related but different problems are studied under this methodology. The first problem looks into the design of cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity markets that satisfy the interest of different market constituents. Via the second problem, it is demonstrated how the framework can be used to obtain levels of carbon emissions reduction while minimizing the negative impact on electricity demand and maximizing green penetration from microgrids. In the aforementioned studies, forecasts for electricity prices and production cost

Foreign direct investment and liberalization policies in Pakistan: An empirical analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rana Ejaz Ali Khan

2014-12-01

Full Text Available To enhance the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI and ultimately to increase the economic growth, the countries have implemented a variety of financial and trade liberalization policies in the last three decades. Pakistan also initiated such type of policies. This study makes an analysis of the impact of liberalization (financial and trade in Pakistan, on the inflow of FDI using the time series data of 1971–2009. The DF-GLS test is used to determine the level of integration, and autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the long-run relationship. The results indicate that liberalization indicators, like financial liberalization index and trade openness along with real interest rate, negatively affect the inflow of FDI in Pakistan. Tax revenue of product also negatively affects the FDI. On the other hand, the gross fixed capital formation, infrastructure, and inflation positively influence the FDI in Pakistan. The market size (proxied by real gross domestic product has shown insignificant effect on FDI.

Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Howarth, R. B.

2010-12-01

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Stephen

2016-01-01

In 2006, the British government launched a policy to build nuclear power reactors based on a claim that the power produced would be competitive with fossil fuel and would require no public subsidy. A decade later, it is not clear how many, if any, orders will be placed and the claims on costs and subsidies have proved false. Despite this failure to deliver, the policy is still being pursued with undiminished determination. The finance model that is now proposed is seen as a model other European countries can follow so the success or otherwise of the British nuclear programme will have implications outside the UK. This paper contends that the checks and balances that should weed out misguided policies, have failed. It argues that the most serious failure is with the civil service and its inability to provide politicians with high quality advice – truth to power. It concludes that the failure is likely to be due to the unwillingness of politicians to listen to opinions that conflict with their beliefs. Other weaknesses include the lack of energy expertise in the media, the unwillingness of the public to engage in the policy process and the impotence of Parliamentary Committees. - Highlights: •Britain's nuclear power policy is failing due to high costs and problems of finance. •This has implications for European countries who want to use the same financing model. •The continued pursuit of a failing policy is due to poor advice from civil servants. •Lack of expertise in the media and lack of public engagement have contributed. •Parliamentary processes have not provided proper critical scrutiny.

Modeling the potential impacts of different radon policies for the U.S. housing stock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, M.D.; Ritchie, I.M.

1995-01-01

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking-related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon-related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels). Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon-resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPS's projections of 2,200 'lives saved annually' as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon-related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in part to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon-related policies. (au)

An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

Modelling climate change policies : an application of ENERGY2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timilsina, G.; Bhargava, A.; Backus, G.

2005-01-01

Researches and policy-makers are increasingly analyzing the economic impacts of the Kyoto Protocol at national, regional and global levels. The analyses are generally based on numerical models integrating energy, environment and the economy. Most models range from partial equilibrium types to complex multi-sector general equilibrium models, and typically represent the energy sector at an aggregate level, which limits their ability to reflect details of different sectors. In Canada, a model called ENERGY2020 has been widely used by the federal and provincial governments to analyze the sectoral and provincial impacts of implementing the Kyoto Protocol. ENERGY2020 uses stocks and flows simulation that captures the physical aspects of the processes utilizing energy, as well as the qualitative choice theory which captures human behavioural aspects. The model also has a database containing 20 years of time-series on all economic, environmental and energy variables, enabling the model to derive most parameters endogenously through econometric estimations. It has the capacity to analyze consumer and business responses over a wide range of policy initiatives such as energy environment taxes, regulatory standards for buildings, equipment and motor vehicles, grants, rebates and subsidy initiatives, consumer awareness initiatives, technology improvements, moratoriums and mandated cut-backs. It is also capable of producing long-term energy market forecasts as well as analyzing the impacts of policies in the markets. It was concluded that the model's application will serve as a useful analytical tool for a range of issues, and may be useful to developing countries and economies in transition. 6 refs., 5 figs

Strategic environmental assessment policy integration model for solid waste management in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Victor, Dennis; Agamuthu, P.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We identified policy drivers of SEA in solid waste policy planning. • The SEA primary policy drivers are benefits, barriers and enablers need. • The SEA sub-drivers are environmental attitude and environmental awareness. • Optimal SEA policy integration requires public participation and capacity building. • SEA integration should be a long-term sustainable policy strategy for SWM. -- Abstract: This paper examines the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) systemic policy drivers for solid waste management (SWM) policies, plans and programmes (PPP) in Malaysia. Solid waste generation in Malaysia has been increasing drastically from 9.0 million tonnes in 2000 to an expected 15.6 million tonnes in 2020. This projected rate of solid waste generation is expected to burden the country's environmental and water quality resources. The key problem the study frames is the lack of environmental integration in the SWM process which is only conducted during the environmental impact assessments (EIA) stage of SWM facilities. The purpose of this study is to expand the SEA subject knowledge by validating a behaviour based theoretical framework and identifying key policy drivers that influence the integration of SEA in SWM policy planning. The study methodology utilized a confirmatory covariance based structural equation modelling approach to validate the proposed theoretical model based on the policy makers/implementers interview questionnaire data collection. The study findings indicate five latent SEA policy drivers which were named policy knowledge, environmental attitude, perceived benefits, perceived barriers and perceived enablers. The study has conceptualized and tested a SEA policy model which indicates that SEA integration behaviour is influenced directly by three main drivers (perception of benefits, perception of barriers and perception of enablers) and influenced indirectly by two sub-drivers environmental attitude and environmental knowledge

Quality in environmental science for policy: assessing uncertainty as a component of policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

2011-01-01

The sheer number of attempts to define and classify uncertainty reveals an awareness of its importance in environmental science for policy, though the nature of uncertainty is often misunderstood. The interdisciplinary field of uncertainty analysis is unstable; there are currently several incomplete

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

How policies affect international biofuel price linkages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajcaniova, Miroslava; Drabik, Dusan; Ciaian, Pavel

2013-01-01

We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining which country is the price leader in world biofuel markets using a cointegration analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Weekly prices are analyzed for the EU, US, and Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel markets in the 2002–2010 and 2005–2010 time periods, respectively. The US blender's tax credit and Brazil's consumer tax exemption are found to play a role in determining the ethanol prices in other countries. For biodiesel, our results demonstrate that EU policies – the consumer tax exemption and blending target – tend to determine the world biodiesel price. - Highlights: • We estimate the role of biofuel policies in determining biofuel prices. • We use a cointegration analysis and the Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. • The biofuel policies in US and Brazil determine the world ethanol prices. • EU biofuel policies tend to form the world biodiesel price

Multi-level policies and adaptive social networks – a conceptual modeling study for maintaining a polycentric governance system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Denis Mathias

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Information and collaboration patterns embedded in social networks play key roles in multilevel and polycentric modes of governance. However, modeling the dynamics of such social networks in multilevel settings has been seldom addressed in the literature. Here we use an adaptive social network model to elaborate the interplay between a central and a local government in order to maintain a polycentric governance. More specifically, our analysis explores in what ways specific policy choices made by a central agent affect the features of an emerging social network composed of local organizations and local users. Using two types of stylized policies, adaptive co-management and adaptive one-level management, we focus on the benefits of multi-level adaptive cooperation for network management. Our analysis uses viability theory to explore and to quantify the ability of these policies to achieve specific network properties. Viability theory gives the family of policies that enables maintaining the polycentric governance unlike optimal control that gives a unique blueprint. We found that the viability of the policies can change dramatically depending on the goals and features of the social network. For some social networks, we also found a very large difference between the viability of the adaptive one-level management and adaptive co-management policies. However, results also show that adaptive co-management doesn’t always provide benefits. Hence, we argue that applying viability theory to governance networks can help policy design by analyzing the trade-off between the costs of adaptive co-management and the benefits associated with its ability to maintain desirable social network properties in a polycentric governance framework.

Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

2009-01-01

Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

Physical inactivity as a policy problem: applying a concept from policy analysis to a public health issue.

Science.gov (United States)

Rütten, Alfred; Abu-Omar, Karim; Gelius, Peter; Schow, Diana

2013-03-07

Despite the recent rapid development of policies to counteract physical inactivity (PI), only a small number of systematic analyses on the evolution of these policies exists. In this article we analyze how PI, as a public health issue, "translates" into a policy-making issue. First, we discuss why PI has become an increasingly important public health issue during the last two decades. We then follow Guy Peters and conceptualize PI as a "policy problem" that has the potential to be linked to policy instruments and policy impact. Analysis indicates that PI is a policy problem that i) is chronic in nature; ii) involves a high degree of political complexity; iii) can be disaggregated into smaller scales; iv) is addressed through interventions that can be difficult to "sell" to the public when their benefits are not highly divisible; v) cannot be solved by government spending alone; vi) must be addressed through a broad scope of activities; and vii) involves interdependencies among both multiple sectors and levels of government.We conclude that the new perspective on PI proposed in this article might be useful and important for i) describing and mapping policies to counteract PI in different contexts; ii) evaluating whether or not existing policy instruments are appropriate to the policy problem of PI, and iii) explaining the factors and processes that underlie policy development and implementation. More research is warranted in all these areas. In particular, we propose to focus on comparative analyses of how the problem of PI is defined and tackled in different contexts, and on the identification of truly effective policy instruments that are designed to "solve" the PI policy problem.

Development and application of dynamic hybrid multi-region inventory analysis for macro-level environmental policy analysis: a case study on climate policy in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Chia-Wei; Heijungs, Reinout; Ma, Hwong-wen

2013-03-19

We develop a novel inventory method called Dynamic Hybrid Multi-Region Inventory analysis (DHMRI), which integrates the EEMRIOA and Integrated Hybrid LCA and applies time-dependent environmental intervention information for inventory analysis. Consequently, DHMRI is able to quantify the change in the environmental footprint caused by a specific policy while taking structural changes and technological dynamics into consideration. DHMRI is applied to assess the change in the total CO2 emissions associated with the total final demand caused by the climate policy in Taiwan to demonstrate the practicality of this novel method. The evaluation reveals that the implementation of mitigation measures included in the existing climate policy, such as an enhancement in energy efficiency, promotion of renewable energy, and limitation of the growth of energy-intensive industries, will lead to a 28% increase in the total CO2 emissions and that the main driver is the export-oriented electronics industry. Moreover, a major increase in the total emissions is predicted to occur in Southeast Asia and China. The observations from the case study reveal that DHMRI is capable of overcoming the limitations of existing assessment tools at macro-level evaluation of environmental policies.

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

Science.gov (United States)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

Coupled energy economic model framework for analyzing Swiss electricity markets in changing policy environments

OpenAIRE

Maire, Sophie

2016-01-01

Energy policy needs to rely on the proper understanding of the interactions between policy instruments, consumer preferences, investment behavior, market structure, electricity supply, and the wider policy environment. This asks for appropriate modeling tools, able to represent precisely electricity supply options, model all types of energy and climate policies, as well as the reactions of the rest of the economy. Chapter 2 describes the ELECTRA-CH framework, developed to analyze electrici...

Developing recommendations to improve the quality of diabetes care in Ireland: a policy analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mc Hugh, Sheena M; Perry, Ivan J; Bradley, Colin; Brugha, Ruairí

2014-09-18

In 2006, the Health Service Executive (HSE) in Ireland established an Expert Advisory Group (EAG) for Diabetes, to act as its main source of operational policy and strategic advice for this chronic condition. The process was heralded as the starting point for the development of formal chronic disease management programmes. Although recommendations were published in 2008, implementation did not proceed as expected. Our aim was to examine the development of recommendations by the EAG as an instrumental case study of the policy formulation process, in the context of a health system undergoing organisational and financial upheaval. This study uses Kingdon's Multiple Streams Theory to examine the evolution of the EAG recommendations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 15 stakeholders from the advisory group. Interview data were supplemented with documentary analysis of published and unpublished documents. Thematic analysis was guided by the propositions of the Kingdon model. In the problem stream, the prioritisation of diabetes within the policy arena was a gradual process resulting from an accumulation of evidence, international comparison, and experience. The policy stream was bolstered by group consensus rather than complete agreement on the best way to manage the condition. The EAG assumed the politics stream was also on course to converge with the other streams, as the group was established by the HSE, which had the remit for policy implementation. However, the politics stream did not converge due to waning support from health service management and changes to the organisational structure and financial capacity of the health system. These changes trumped the EAG process and the policy window remained closed, stalling implementation. Our results reflect the dynamic nature of the policy process and the importance of timing. The results highlight the limits of rational policy making in the face of organisational and fiscal upheaval

Governing citizens and health professionals at a distance: A critical discourse analysis of policies of intersectorial collaboration in Danish health-care

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Anne Bendix; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Kolbæk, Raymond

2017-01-01

of intersectorial collaboration. The premises of intersectorial collaboration are maintained through a specific presentation of actors leaving little room for discussion, where professionals are constructed as actors who are expected to develop ways of collaborating according to the Triple Aim approach in order...... policies as powerful actors and explores how effects of a concrete policy are adapted for intersectorial collaboration in Danish healthcare. The paper is based on a critical discourse analysis of a central policy document in Danish health-care known as the ‘Health Agreements’. Using Fairclough’s three......-dimensional model for discourse analysis, we explored the document to clarify the construction of actors participating in intersectorial collaboration. The analysis revealed the Health Agreement as a ‘negotiated text’, appearing as an overriding document legitimising one possible discourse regarding the premises...

Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis | Page 2 ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... to widen and deepen, so too does its impact on economic development. ... The outcomes of such efforts will subsequently inform policy discourse and ... Studies. Statistical Compilation of the ICT Sector and Policy Analysis project : country experiences; Malaysia ... Asian outlook: New growth dependent on new productivity.

Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technological, and socioeconomic futures in a regional integrated-assessment model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Page Kyle, G.; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong

2014-01-01

Improving the energy efficiency of building stock, commercial equipment, and household appliances can have a major positive impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Sub-national regions such as the U.S. states wish to increase energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions, or adapt to climate change. Evaluating sub-national policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the large uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change itself may undercut such policies. However, assessing all of the uncertainties of large-scale energy and climate models by performing thousands of model runs can be a significant modeling effort with its accompanying computational burden. By applying fractional–factorial methods to the GCAM-USA 50-state integrated-assessment model in the context of a particular policy question, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy can greatly reduce computational burden in the presence of uncertainty and reveal the important drivers for decisions and more detailed uncertainty analysis. - Highlights: • We evaluate building energy codes and standards for climate mitigation. • We use an integrated assessment model and fractional factorial methods. • Decision criteria are energy use, CO2 emitted, and building service cost. • We demonstrate sensitivity analysis for three states. • We identify key variables to propagate with Monte Carlo or surrogate models

Human Resources Management Policies and Practices Scale (HRMPPS: Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gisela Demo

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Given the strategic relevance of Human Resources Management (HRM in organizations and the lack of scientific instruments to measure employees’ perceptions about policies and practices of HRM, this study aimed to validate the Human Resources Management Policies and Practices Scale (HRMPPS through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis using the maximum likelihood method. The study has a quantitative design, but also included qualitative analysis required for the development of a scale. Employees from various organizations composed a sample of 632 people. Scale reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s alpha and Jöreskog’s rho. A sixfactor model was generated showing high-reliability and good fit. Construct validity was provided through convergent and discriminant analyses. The factors were consistent with the literature review and explained about 58% of the construct’s total variance. This study contributes to the scientific production in the area of Human Resources Management since HRMPPS can be used not only in relational studies but also as an evaluation instrument by managers who wish to improve their employees’ well-being as well as organizational outcomes.

Mathematical modeling for exploring the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous inventory issuing policy on EMQ model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singa Wang Chiu

2018-09-01

Full Text Available This study employs mathematical modeling to explore the effects of overtime option, rework, and discontinuous end-item issuing policy on the economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ model. Conventional EMQ model assumed that all products fabricated are of good quality and are issued under continuous policy. In real world, however, nonconforming items are randomly produced, due to diverse unexpected factors in fabrication process. When finished items are to be distributed to outside locations, discontinuous multi-shipment policy is often used rather than continuous rule. In addition, with the intention of increasing short-term capacity or shortening replenishment cycle length to smooth the production planning, adopting overtime option can be an effective strategy. To cope with the aforementioned features in real production systems, this study incorporates overtime option, rework, and multi-shipment policy into the EMQ model and explores their joint effects on optimal lot size and number of shipments, and on other relevant system parameters. Mathematical modeling and Hessian matrix equations enable us to derive the optimal policies to the problem. Through the use of numerical example, the applicability of research result is exhibited and a variety of significant effects of these features on the proposed system are revealed.

Analysis of Transport Policy Effect on CO2 Emissions Based on System Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuang Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available CO2 emission from the transport sector attracts the attention of both transport and climate change policymakers because of its share in total green house gas emissions and the forecast of continuous growth reported in many countries. This paper takes the urban transport in Beijing as a case and builds a system dynamics model for analysis of the motorization trend and the assessment of CO2 emissions mitigation policy. It is found that the urban transport condition and CO2 emissions would be more serious with the growth of vehicle ownership and travel demand. Compared with the baseline do-nothing scenario, the CO2 emissions could be reduced from 3.8% to 24.3% in 2020 by various transport policies. And the policy of controlling the number of passenger cars which has been carried out in Beijing and followed by some cities could achieve good results, which may help to increase the proportion of public transit to 55.6% and reduce the CO2 emission by 18.3% compared with the baseline scenario in 2020.

Policy content and stakeholder network analysis for infant and young child feeding in Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabrina Rasheed

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Appropriate infant and young child feeding (IYCF practices are essential for nutrition of infants and young children. Bangladesh has one of the highest levels of malnutrition globally along with sub-optimal IYCF practices. A supportive policy environment is essential to ensure that effective IYCF interventions are scaled up. The objectives of our study were to assess the support for IYCF in the national policy environment through policy analysis and stakeholder analysis and in so doing identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment. Methods We used a matrix developed by SAIFRN (the South Asian Infant Feeding Research Network to systematically identify supportive national policies, plans and guidelines for IYCF. We adapted narrative synthesis and descriptive approaches to analyze policy content, based on four themes with a focus on support for mothers. We conducted three Net-Map interviews to identify stakeholders who influenced the policies and programs related to IYCF. Results We identified 19 national policy documents relevant to IYCF. Overall, there was good level of support for IYCF practices at policy level – particularly regarding general support for IYCF and provision of information to mothers – but these were not consistently supported at implementation level, particularly regarding specificity and population coverage. We identified gaps regarding the training of health workers, capacity building, the monitoring and targeting of vulnerable mothers and providing an enabling environment to mothers, specifically with respect to maternity leave for working women. Urban populations and providers outside the public sector remained uncovered by policy. Our stakeholder analysis identified government entities such as the National Nutrition Service, as the most influential in terms of both technical and funding support as they had the mandate for formulation and implementation of policies and national programs

Policy content and stakeholder network analysis for infant and young child feeding in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasheed, Sabrina; Roy, Swapan Kumar; Das, Susmita; Chowdhury, Syeda Nafisa; Iqbal, Mohammad; Akter, Syeda Mahsina; Jahan, Khurshid; Uddin, Shahadat; Thow, Anne Marie

2017-06-13

Appropriate infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices are essential for nutrition of infants and young children. Bangladesh has one of the highest levels of malnutrition globally along with sub-optimal IYCF practices. A supportive policy environment is essential to ensure that effective IYCF interventions are scaled up. The objectives of our study were to assess the support for IYCF in the national policy environment through policy analysis and stakeholder analysis and in so doing identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment. We used a matrix developed by SAIFRN (the South Asian Infant Feeding Research Network) to systematically identify supportive national policies, plans and guidelines for IYCF. We adapted narrative synthesis and descriptive approaches to analyze policy content, based on four themes with a focus on support for mothers. We conducted three Net-Map interviews to identify stakeholders who influenced the policies and programs related to IYCF. We identified 19 national policy documents relevant to IYCF. Overall, there was good level of support for IYCF practices at policy level - particularly regarding general support for IYCF and provision of information to mothers - but these were not consistently supported at implementation level, particularly regarding specificity and population coverage. We identified gaps regarding the training of health workers, capacity building, the monitoring and targeting of vulnerable mothers and providing an enabling environment to mothers, specifically with respect to maternity leave for working women. Urban populations and providers outside the public sector remained uncovered by policy. Our stakeholder analysis identified government entities such as the National Nutrition Service, as the most influential in terms of both technical and funding support as they had the mandate for formulation and implementation of policies and national programs. Stakeholders from different sectors played important

Nitrates in ground and drinking water: analysis of policies and regulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conrad, J

1986-05-01

On the societal level, risks are the result of collective processes of definition. Accepted risks are mainly the output and secondarily the (scientific) input of these processes. As a consequence, in this paper the question of risk management of the nitrate burden to ground and drinking water is analysed within the framework of comparative policy analysis. Various actors pursue their respective interests in different policy arenas within the given rules of the policy game. The impacts of the policy outputs on the policy addressees, namely farmers and water companies, (substantially) determine the level of actual risk. Different national regulatory styles and traditions towards nitrate regulation shape the policy outputs. Consequently, the assumption or normative postulate of a rational (scientific) risk assessment and risk management appears to be utterly heroic and, in the end, misleading.

Model-Driven Policy Framework for Data Centers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Caba, Cosmin Marius; Kentis, Angelos Mimidis; Soler, José

2016-01-01

. Moreover, the lack of simple solutions for managing the configuration and behavior of the DC components makes the DC hard to configure and slow in adapting to changes in business needs. In this paper, we propose a model-driven framework for policy-based management for DCs, to simplify not only the service...

Analyzing availability using transfer function models and cross spectral analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singpurwalla, N.D.

1980-01-01

The paper shows how the methods of multivariate time series analysis can be used in a novel way to investigate the interrelationships between a series of operating (running) times and a series of maintenance (down) times of a complex system. Specifically, the techniques of cross spectral analysis are used to help obtain a Box-Jenkins type transfer function model for the running times and the down times of a nuclear reactor. A knowledge of the interrelationships between the running times and the down times is useful for an evaluation of maintenance policies, for replacement policy decisions, and for evaluating the availability and the readiness of complex systems

Language Ideology or Language Practice? An Analysis of Language Policy Documents at Swedish Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Björkman, Beyza

2014-01-01

This article presents an analysis and interpretation of language policy documents from eight Swedish universities with regard to intertextuality, authorship and content analysis of the notions of language practices and English as a lingua franca (ELF). The analysis is then linked to Spolsky's framework of language policy, namely language…

Exploration of government policy structure which support and block energy transition process in indonesia using system dynamics model

Science.gov (United States)

Destyanto, A. R.; Silalahi, T. D.; Hidayatno, A.

2017-11-01

System dynamic modeling is widely used to predict and simulate the energy system in several countries. One of the applications of system dynamics is to evaluate national energy policy alternatives, and energy efficiency analysis. Using system dynamic modeling, this research aims to evaluate the energy transition policy that has been implemented in Indonesia on the past conversion program of kerosene to LPG for household cook fuel consumption, which considered as successful energy transition program implemented since 2007. This research is important since Indonesia considered not yet succeeded to execute another energy transition program on conversion program of oil fuel to gas fuel for transportation that has started since 1989. The aim of this research is to explore which policy intervention that has significant contribution to support or even block the conversion program. Findings in this simulation show that policy intervention to withdraw the kerosene supply and government push to increase production capacity of the support equipment industries (gas stove, regulator, and LPG Cylinder) is the main influence on the success of the program conversion program.

Anti-corruption policy in the system of legal measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatyana Viktorovna Filonenko

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Objective to determine the scientificmethodological foundations of anticorruption policy. Methods dialectical approach to cognition of social phenomena allows to explore the combination of objective and subjective factors influencing the formation and implementation of anticorruption policy. The author39s model of anticorruption policy is based on the wide range of logical methods of information processing modeling abstraction analysis analogy. Scientific hypothesis and formal legal analysis were also used. Results basing on comparison of the recent theoreticallegal criminallegal and criminological research in the field of legal and anticorruption policy the scientificmethodological foundations of anticorruption policy are disclosed. The authors attempt to systematize the scientific interpretation of anticorruption policy. The concept of legal policy its forms tools subjects and typesare discussed. As a result it becomes possible to describe the current anticorruption policy using terminology from the theory of legal policy. This approach can increase the effectiveness of modern anticorruption policy as it allows to clearly see the gaps and shortcomings in lawmaking and law enforcement during the anticorruption policy implementation. Scientific novelty the article makes an attempt to describe the current anticorruption policy with the use of terminology and models developed in the theoretical and legal research for the characterization of legal policy and its particular directions. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in scientific and pedagogical work when considering questions about the nature and trends of the modern anticorruption policy development. The applied approach allows to bring together criminal law criminology and theoreticallegal research of anticorruption policy. nbsp

Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool

Science.gov (United States)

Pisoni, E.; Albrecht, D.; Mara, T. A.; Rosati, R.; Tarantola, S.; Thunis, P.

2018-06-01

Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process.

Modeling investment uncertainty in the costs of global CO2 emission policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birge, J.R.; Rosa, C.H.

1995-01-01

This paper investigates the effect that explicit modeling of stochastic returns to investment has on the CO 2 abatement policy returned by a large scale macroeconomic model of the United States economy. It was found that a policy derived from the mean value deterministic model in which the random variables of the stochastic model have been replaced by their expected value poorly approximates the optimal policy returned by solving the stochastic programming model. This nonoptimality is measured by determining the value of the stochastic solution and investigating the different evolutionary paths that various macroeconomic variables follow. Macroeconomic variables which stray far from their optimal paths when derived under the assumption of a certain mean valued future are as follows: the level of carbon taxation, investment in new energy production technologies, exploration for nonrenewable resources and investment in improved macroeconomic efficiency. 18 refs., 17 figs., 6 tabs

Energy policy in the Caribbean green economy context and the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) framework as a proposed tool for its development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, Kalim U.; Niles, Keron

2016-01-01

Market integration efforts of Caribbean small island developing states have become transposed on the growing paradigm shift towards green economy pathways. Central to this is the challenge of implementing Caribbean energy policy in a manner that is aligned with green economy ideals and face the realities of regional indebtedness and environmental impacts. Here we analyze the current state of the Caribbean energy policy development arena and propose that the currently weak policy and institutional design regime might potentially benefit from the application of the Institutional Analysis and Design (IAD) model especially within the operational context of the green economy. It allows us to identify current policy dilemmas, bottlenecks and discrepancies and to disentangle some of them while offering up a way forward with others. We do not so much offer distinct recommendations but focus more on delineating how to clear the pathway for sound policy intervention and outcomes. By doing so we set forth a challenging agenda for future policy analysis research that will advance Caribbean energy policy in more robust ways. - Highlights: • Un-coordinated Caricom energy policy can benefit from an institutional analysis and design approach. • Policy reform hinges on the patterns of interaction among key actors in the regional context. • Regional policy remains weak across efficiency, equity, accountability and adaptability parameters.

Digital terrain modelling development and applications in a policy support environment

CERN Document Server

Peckham, Robert Joseph

2007-01-01

This publication is the first book on the development and application of digital terrain modelling for regional planning and policy support. It is a compilation of research results by international research groups at the European Commission's Joint Research Centre providing scientific support to the development and implementation of EU environmental policy. Applications include the pan-European River and Catchment Database, European Flood Alert System, European Digital Soil Database and alternative solar energy resources, all discussed in a GIS framework in the context of the INfrastructure for SPatial InfoRmation in Europe (INSPIRE). This practice-oriented book is recommended to practicing environmental modellers and GIS experts working on regional planning and policy support applications.

China's one-child policy, a policy without a future. Pitfalls of the “common good” argument and the authoritarian model.

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Jing-Bao

2014-07-01

The Chinese Communist Party government has been forcefully promoting its jihua shengyu (planned fertility) program, known as the "one-child policy," for more than three decades. A distinctive authoritarian model of population governance has been developed. A pertinent question to be asked is whether China's one-child policy and the authoritarian model of population governance have a future. The answer must be no; they do not. Although there are many demographic, economic, and social rationales for terminating the one-child policy, the most fundamental reason for opposing its continuation is drawn from ethics. The key ethical rationale offered for the policy is that it promotes the common social good, not only for China and the Chinese people but for the whole human family. The major irony associated with this apparently convincing justification is that, although designed to improve living standards and help relieve poverty and underdevelopment, the one-child policy and the application of the authoritarian model have instead caused massive suffering to Chinese people, especially women, and made them victims of state violence. A lesson from China--one learned at the cost of individual and social suffering on an enormous scale--is that an essential prerequisite for the pursuit of the common good is the creation of adequate constraints on state power.

Political economy models and agricultural policy formation : empirical applicability and relevance for the CAP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zee, van der F.A.

1997-01-01

This study explores the relevance and applicability of political economy models for the explanation of agricultural policies. Part I (chapters 4-7) takes a general perspective and evaluates the empirical applicability of voting models and interest group models to agricultural policy

Development policy for non-grid-connected wind power in China: An analysis based on institutional change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Yong; Li Jing; Wang Mingming

2012-01-01

Government policy continues to play a crucial role in the development of wind power industry in China. The 2005 “Renewable Energy Law” and related policies have driven the rapid increase in wind power installed capacity in China over the past half-decade, with capacity doubling annually since 2005. However, a large number of wind farms generate electricity well below their installed capacity, resulting in considerable wastage of resources. Non-grid-connected wind power theory proposes that large-scale wind power output does not necessarily have to be fed into the grid, but can be used directly in industrial production. Thus, the use of the theory can promote the sustainable development of the wind power industry by obviating the need for power grid. In this paper we analyze the influence of government policy on wind power industry from the perspective of institutional change, by employing the basic theories of new institutional economics. A development model for non-grid-connected wind power is proposed in order to implement institutional change in accordance with the specific characteristics of wind power industry in China. This model requires the government to play an active role in institutional development by increasing economic efficiency in order to promote the sustainable development of wind power. - Highlights: ► New institutional economics-based analysis paradigm for wind power policy proposed. ► Policies for China's wind power industry analyzed according to the paradigm. ► Hybrid development mode of institutional change is the best pathway for wind power. ► Potential development policy for China's wind power industry recommended.

An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Marissa; Mason, Helen; O'Flaherty, Martin; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon

2014-07-01

Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion. The World Health Organization and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence have recommended a reduction in the intake of salt in people's diets. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of four population health policies to reduce dietary salt intake on an English population to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). The validated IMPACT CHD model was used to quantify and compare four policies: 1) Change4Life health promotion campaign, 2) front-of-pack traffic light labeling to display salt content, 3) Food Standards Agency working with the food industry to reduce salt (voluntary), and 4) mandatory reformulation to reduce salt in processed foods. The effectiveness of these policies in reducing salt intake, and hence blood pressure, was determined by systematic literature review. The model calculated the reduction in mortality associated with each policy, quantified as life-years gained over 10 years. Policy costs were calculated using evidence from published sources. Health care costs for specific CHD patient groups were estimated. Costs were compared against a "do nothing" baseline. All policies resulted in a life-year gain over the baseline. Change4life and labeling each gained approximately 1960 life-years, voluntary reformulation 14,560 life-years, and mandatory reformulation 19,320 life-years. Each policy appeared cost saving, with mandatory reformulation offering the largest cost saving, more than £660 million. All policies to reduce dietary salt intake could gain life-years and reduce health care expenditure on coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combining Generated Data Models with Formal Invalidation for Insider Threat Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kammuller, Florian; Probst, Christian W.

2014-01-01

draw from recent insights into generation of insider data to complement a logic based mechanical approach. We show how insider analysis can be traced back to the early days of security verification and the Lowe-attack on NSPK. The invalidation of policies allows modelchecking organizational structures......In this paper we revisit the advances made on invalidation policies to explore attack possibilities in organizational models. One aspect that has so far eloped systematic analysis of insider threat is the integration of data into attack scenarios and its exploitation for analyzing the models. We...... to detect insider attacks. Integration of higher order logic specification techniques allows the use of data refinement to explore attack possibilities beyond the initial system specification. We illustrate this combined invalidation technique on the classical example of the naughty lottery fairy. Data...

A Qualitative Stakeholder Analysis of Avian Influenza Policy in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Chattopadhyay, Kaushik; Fournié, Guillaume; Abul Kalam, Md; Biswas, Paritosh K; Hoque, Ahasanul; Debnath, Nitish C; Rahman, Mahmudur; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Harper, David; Heymann, David L

2017-11-13

Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach.

Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

2017-07-01

The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

Policy options and their potential effects on Moroccan small farmers and the poor facing increased world food prices: A general equilibrium model analysis

OpenAIRE

Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin

2008-01-01

"This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show ...

The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

1986-08-01

The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

Drug Policy: the "Dutch Model"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ooijen-Houben, M.M.J.; Kleemans, E.R.

2015-01-01

Dutch drug policy, once considered pragmatic and lenient and rooted in a generally tolerant attitude toward drug use, has slowly but surely shifted from a primarily public health focus to an increasing focus on law enforcement. The "coffee shop" policy and the policy toward MDMA/ecstasy are

Pedestrian paths: why path-dependence theory leaves health policy analysis lost in space.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Lawrence D

2010-08-01

Path dependence, a model first advanced to explain puzzles in the diffusion of technology, has lately won allegiance among analysts of the politics of public policy, including health care policy. Though the central premise of the model--that past events and decisions shape options for innovation in the present and future--is indisputable (indeed path dependence is, so to speak, too shallow to be false), the approach, at least as applied to health policy, suffers from ambiguities that undercut its claims to illuminate policy projects such as managed care, on which this article focuses. Because path dependence adds little more than marginal value to familiar images of the politics of policy--incrementalism, for one--analysts might do well to put it on the back burner and pursue instead "thick descriptions" that help them to distinguish different degrees of openness to exogenous change among diverse policy arenas.

Green electricity policy in the Netherlands. An analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha van; Wees, Mark van

2003-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes in both market conditions and the national and international policy framework in the Netherlands can be observed. The Dutch Government has intervened in markets regularly, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. The following conclusions can be drawn on the policy choices: First, the objectives and targets of Dutch renewable energy policy were frequently ambiguous. Although the government emphasised the importance of investments in local capacity, imports were always (implicitly) seen as an alternative option in meeting targets. Second, for a long period the government focused on reducing investment costs and dismantling administrative barriers. Only recently has the lack of a stable investment climate been identified as a potential barrier. Third, although many stakeholders have advocated a mandatory approach, Dutch policies stimulating renewable energy have always been voluntary. Finally, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has always played a very dominant role in renewable energy policy formulation and implementation, which may explain the fact that some unfavourable market reactions to policies have not been foreseen. (author)

The social and political lives of zoonotic disease models: narratives, science and policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Leach, Melissa; Scoones, Ian

2013-07-01

Zoonotic diseases currently pose both major health threats and complex scientific and policy challenges, to which modelling is increasingly called to respond. In this article we argue that the challenges are best met by combining multiple models and modelling approaches that elucidate the various epidemiological, ecological and social processes at work. These models should not be understood as neutral science informing policy in a linear manner, but as having social and political lives: social, cultural and political norms and values that shape their development and which they carry and project. We develop and illustrate this argument in relation to the cases of H5N1 avian influenza and Ebola, exploring for each the range of modelling approaches deployed and the ways they have been co-constructed with a particular politics of policy. Addressing the complex, uncertain dynamics of zoonotic disease requires such social and political lives to be made explicit in approaches that aim at triangulation rather than integration, and plural and conditional rather than singular forms of policy advice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of rice policy based on presidential instruction on household food security: simultaneous equation model

Science.gov (United States)

Sembiring, S. A.

2018-02-01

The objective of this research is to analyze the impacts of rice policy on the household food security. The research used cross section data, were collected from 74 respondent as determined by purposive sampling in Sei Rejo villages, the Sub District of Sei Rampah, Serdang Bedagai District in the Province of North Sumatera. Rice policy model specification uses the simultaneous equations consisting of 6 structural equations and 6 identity equations which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that the effectiveness of government purchase price of dried harvest paddy gave a positive impact on paddy planted area and lead to an increase paddy production and an increase of the rice production gave a positive impact on household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the increase of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin decrease, whereas the increase of fertilizers gave a negative impact on paddy planted area and lead to decrease paddy production and to decrease in rice production was followed by an decrease in household rice availability and household rice surplus, and the decrease of household rice surplus gave the quantity of Raskin increase.

A Content Analysis of School Anti-Bullying Policies in Northern Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Purdy, Noel; Smith, Peter K.

2016-01-01

This original study presents a content analysis of 100 primary and post-primary school anti-bullying policies in Northern Ireland using a 36-item scoring scheme. Overall schools had 52% of the items in their policies. Most schools included reference to physical, verbal, relational, material and cyberbullying but a minority mentioned racist,…

Policy and stakeholder analysis of infant and young child feeding programmes in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjeeva S. P. Godakandage

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Infant and young child feeding practices (IYCF play a critical role in growth and development of children. A favourable environment supported by appropriate policies and positive contributions from all stakeholders are prerequisites for achieving optimal IYCF practices. This study aimed to assess the IYCF-related policy environment and role of stakeholders in policy making in Sri Lanka, in order to identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment to better support appropriate IYCF and reduce childhood malnutrition. Methods We mapped national level policy-related documents on IYCF, and conducted a stakeholder analysis of IYCF policy making. A matrix was designed to capture data from IYCF policy-related documents using a thematic approach. A narrative synthesis of data from different documents was conducted to achieve the first objective. We then conducted an analysis of technical and funding links of stakeholders who shape IYCF policies and programmes in Sri Lanka using the Net-Map technique, to achieve the second objective. A total of 35 respondents were purposively selected based on their knowledge on the topic, and individual interviews were conducted. Results Twenty four policies were identified that contained provisions in line with global recommendations for best-practice IYCF, marketing of breast milk substitutes, strengthening health and non-health systems, maternity benefits, inter-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, health education and supplementation. However, there is no separate, written policy on IYCF in Sri Lanka. Participants identified 56 actors involved in shaping IYCF policies and programmes through technical support, and 36 through funding support. The Government Health Sector was the most connected as well as influential, followed by development partners. Almost all actors in the networks were supportive for IYCF policies and programmes. Conclusions and recommendations All evidence

Policy and stakeholder analysis of infant and young child feeding programmes in Sri Lanka.

Science.gov (United States)

Godakandage, Sanjeeva S P; Senarath, Upul; Jayawickrama, Hiranya S; Siriwardena, Indika; Wickramasinghe, S W A D A; Arumapperuma, Prasantha; Ihalagama, Sathyajith; Nimalan, Srisothinathan; Archchuna, Ramanathan; Umesh, Claudio; Uddin, Shahadat; Thow, Anne Marie

2017-06-13

Infant and young child feeding practices (IYCF) play a critical role in growth and development of children. A favourable environment supported by appropriate policies and positive contributions from all stakeholders are prerequisites for achieving optimal IYCF practices. This study aimed to assess the IYCF-related policy environment and role of stakeholders in policy making in Sri Lanka, in order to identify opportunities to strengthen the policy environment to better support appropriate IYCF and reduce childhood malnutrition. We mapped national level policy-related documents on IYCF, and conducted a stakeholder analysis of IYCF policy making. A matrix was designed to capture data from IYCF policy-related documents using a thematic approach. A narrative synthesis of data from different documents was conducted to achieve the first objective. We then conducted an analysis of technical and funding links of stakeholders who shape IYCF policies and programmes in Sri Lanka using the Net-Map technique, to achieve the second objective. A total of 35 respondents were purposively selected based on their knowledge on the topic, and individual interviews were conducted. Twenty four policies were identified that contained provisions in line with global recommendations for best-practice IYCF, marketing of breast milk substitutes, strengthening health and non-health systems, maternity benefits, inter-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, health education and supplementation. However, there is no separate, written policy on IYCF in Sri Lanka. Participants identified 56 actors involved in shaping IYCF policies and programmes through technical support, and 36 through funding support. The Government Health Sector was the most connected as well as influential, followed by development partners. Almost all actors in the networks were supportive for IYCF policies and programmes. All evidence-based recommendations are covered in related policies. However, advocacy should be targeted

An Analysis of Donald Trump's Political Personality Traits and Policy Orientations

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yin Jiwu; Zheng Jianjun; Li Hongzhou

2017-01-01

As a political leader,US President Trump's personality traits affect his policy orientations and current US foreign policy.The authors analyze Trump's personality in several categories-uninhibited and capricious,dynamic and capable,profit-orientated and self-centered,competitive and persistent,positive and extraverted.The traits of breaking traditions,skill at strategic deception and negotiation,action-motivated implementation,intuitive decision-making,pursuit of respect and interest exchange,and vengefulness will shape his policy and behavioral orientations.Initial study shows Trump to be a political leader with positive personality traits and double-sided dimensions.The analysis offers insight toward understanding the new US executive and his policy direction.

Parsing pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: forensic chemistry, receptor models, and source control policy.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Reilly, Kirk T; Pietari, Jaana; Boehm, Paul D

2014-04-01

A realistic understanding of contaminant sources is required to set appropriate control policy. Forensic chemical methods can be powerful tools in source characterization and identification, but they require a multiple-lines-of-evidence approach. Atmospheric receptor models, such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)'s chemical mass balance (CMB), are increasingly being used to evaluate sources of pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments. This paper describes the assumptions underlying receptor models and discusses challenges in complying with these assumptions in practice. Given the variability within, and the similarity among, pyrogenic PAH source types, model outputs are sensitive to specific inputs, and parsing among some source types may not be possible. Although still useful for identifying potential sources, the technical specialist applying these methods must describe both the results and their inherent uncertainties in a way that is understandable to nontechnical policy makers. The authors present an example case study concerning an investigation of a class of parking-lot sealers as a significant source of PAHs in urban sediment. Principal component analysis is used to evaluate published CMB model inputs and outputs. Targeted analyses of 2 areas where bans have been implemented are included. The results do not support the claim that parking-lot sealers are a significant source of PAHs in urban sediments. © 2013 SETAC.

Building-integrated renewable energy policy analysis in China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

姚春妮; 郝斌

2009-01-01

With the dramatic development of renewable energy all over the world,and for purpose of adjusting energy structure,the Ministry of Construction of China plans to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings. In order to ensure the validity of policy-making,this work firstly exerts a method to do cost-benefit analysis for three kinds of technologies such as building-integrated solar hot water (BISHW) system,building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) technology and ground water heat pump (GWHP). Through selecting a representative city of every climate region,the analysis comes into different results for different climate regions in China and respectively different suggestion for policy-making. On the analysis basis,the Ministry of Construction (MOC) and the Ministry of Finance of China (MOF) united to start-up Building-integrated Renewable Energy Demonstration Projects (BIREDP) in 2006. In the demonstration projects,renewable energy takes place of traditional energy to supply the domestic hot water,electricity,air-conditioning and heating. Through carrying out the demonstration projects,renewable energy related market has been expanded. More and more relative companies and local governments take the opportunity to promote the large scale application of renewable energy in buildings.

Host-country policy – commitment or no-commitment: a theoretical analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mukherjee, A.

2000-01-01

This paper develops a model of foreign entry strategy and examines welfare of the host-country under two situations - (i) where host-country government commits to the tax policy, (ii) where host-country government does not commit to the tax policy. It turns out that under the non-committed

Assessment of biofuels supporting policies using the BioTrans model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lensink, Sander; Londo, Marc

2010-01-01

The introduction of advanced, 2nd generation biofuels is a difficult to forecast process. Policies may impact the timing of their introduction and the future biofuels mix. The least-cost optimization model BioTrans supports policy analyses on these issues. It includes costs for all parts of the supply chain, and endogenous learning for all biofuels technologies, including cost reductions through scale. BioTrans shows that there are significant lock-in effects favouring traditional biofuels, and that the optimal biofuels mix by 2030 is path dependent. The model captures important barriers for the introduction of emerging technologies, thereby providing valuable quantitative information that can be used in analyses of biofuels supporting policies. It is shown that biodiesel from oil crops will remain a cost effective way of producing biofuels in the medium term at moderate target levels. Aiming solely at least-cost biofuel production is in conflict with a longer term portfolio approach on biofuels, and the desire to come to biofuels with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions. Lowering the targets because of environmental constraints delays the development of 2nd generation biofuels, unless additional policy measures (such as specific sub targets for these fuels) are implemented.

Green electricity policies in the Netherlands: an analysis of policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rooijen, Sascha N.M. van; Wees, Mark T. van

2006-01-01

Over the last decades, fundamental changes can be observed in both market conditions and the national policy framework for green electricity in the Netherlands. The Dutch Government has regularly intervened in markets, demonstrating fundamental shifts in policy and approach. This study aims to analyse the developments in renewable energy policy making in the Netherlands. It assesses changes in the choice of policy instruments and target groups, the role of stakeholders, and offers explanations behind policy successes and failures. Dutch green electricity policy over the last decade can be characterised roughly by three phases: in the early 1990s, the government negotiated voluntary agreements with the energy distribution sector on targets for green electricity sales, which were never met. In the second half of the 1990s, a regulatory energy tax was introduced, from which customers of green electricity were exempt. This led to a substantial increase in demand, which was largely met by green electricity imports, and did not lead to additional domestic renewable energy capacity. Finally, a change in policy has taken place recently (2003) shifting the focus from promotion of demand to the promotion of supply through a system of regulated feed-in tariffs. Despite the renewable energy policies, growth of the renewable energy market in the Netherlands has been small and targets have not been fully met. The Dutch government has not yet succeeded in substantially reducing market uncertainties and in building confidence among market parties, because the policies have not been stable and policy objectives have frequently been partly ambiguous. In addition, the influence of stakeholders in renewable energy policy making has been small which has the early acceptance and implementation of alternative policies

Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change