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Sample records for policies rapid inflation

  1. Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji

    2008-01-01

    Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1-100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S 3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities

  2. Rapid roll inflation with conformal coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kofman, Lev; Mukohyama, Shinji

    2008-02-01

    Usual inflation is realized with a slow rolling scalar field minimally coupled to gravity. In contrast, we consider dynamics of a scalar with a flat effective potential, conformally coupled to gravity. Surprisingly, it contains an attractor inflationary solution with the rapidly rolling inflaton field. We discuss models with the conformal inflaton with a flat potential (including hybrid inflation). There is no generation of cosmological fluctuations from the conformally coupled inflaton. We consider realizations of modulated (inhomogeneous reheating) or curvaton cosmological fluctuations in these models. We also implement these unusual features for the popular string-theoretic warped inflationary scenario, based on the interacting D3-D¯3 branes. The original warped brane inflation suffers a large inflaton mass due to conformal coupling to 4-dimensional gravity. Instead of considering this as a problem and trying to cure it with extra engineering, we show that warped inflation with the conformally coupled, rapidly rolling inflaton is yet possible with N=37 efoldings, which requires low-energy scales 1 100 TeV of inflation. Coincidentally, the same warping numerology can be responsible for the hierarchy. It is shown that the scalars associated with angular isometries of the warped geometry of compact manifold (e.g. S3 of Klebanov-Strassler (KS) geometry) have solutions identical to conformally coupled modes and also cannot be responsible for cosmological fluctuations. We discuss other possibilities.

  3. Inflation, economic policy, and the inner city

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, L.A.

    1981-07-01

    This article describes the greater impact of inflation among the poor and minorities in American inner cities than among other population groups. Surveys show, however, that minorities are even more concerned over unemployment and racial discrimination than over inflation. There are indications that, especially today, crime and potential group disorder are affected by or influence inflation, unemployment, and discrimination in the inner city. With these interrelated factors in mind, present federal economic policy is reviewed, critiqued, and interpreted as basically consistent with Keynesian economic theory. Modifications of and alternatives to present policy are offered that fit both inner-city needs and the concerns of the rest of American society. These policies include targeted private sector neighborhood development and self-help, private sector productivity increases through workplace democracy, private-public sector codetermination of investment, private-public sector job guarantees, and public anti-inflation policy carefully targeted at the basic necessities of energy, food, housing, and health care - which have a disproportionate effect on inflation in the inner city, as well as the overall economy. Coalitions are suggested that could politically implement such policies.

  4. MONETARY POLICY AND THE INFLATION TARGETING STRATEGY

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    Zina V. MARCU căs. CIORAN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The monetary policy is a basic component of the economic policy. It has an important role in fulfilling the main objectives of the economic politics, which is: price stability, insurance of a balanced economic raise, full occupancy of human resources and the external payment balance stability insurance. Inflation is a negative thing affecting the economy both on short and long term. On short term, it erodes the purchasing power of currency and thus, it mostly affects the retirees and those with fixed incomes. On long term, inflation discourages the investments and the economic growth. The purpose of this paper consists in the revision and presentation of the specialized literature concerning the impact the monetary policy has on the main macro-economical variables, especially on inflation, in terms of influence of the monetary authority decision on economic and financial conjunction. It was found that the monetary authorities of any country can evaluate exactly the rhythm and the effects of their actions on the economy by understanding the mechanisms which the monetary policy uses to influence the economy.

  5. Inflation Targeting as the Monetary Policy Framework: Bangladesh Perspective

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    Mohammed SAIFUL ISLAM

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Inflation targeting strategy has become a widely accepted monetary policy framework in many countries all over the world. Our study finds that the central bank of Bangladesh is neither inflation targeting nor does follow any other rule-guided monetary policy, rather the policy is formulated with substantial discretion under the guidelines of donor agencies. This paper provides the evidence that monetary sector of Bangladesh economy has gained considerable degree of maturity and fulfils a number of prerequisites to adopt inflation targeting strategy. Using data over 1980-2010 we estimate an error correction model in order to examine if interest rate policy could fight the inflation. This is evident that deviation in inflation from target can be corrected via the changes in interest rate. Empirical findings jointly with few descriptive statistics provide strong evidence to recommend inflation targeting as the monetary policy strategy for Bangladesh.

  6. Replenishment policy for an inventory model under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vikramjeet; Saxena, Seema; Singh, Pushpinder; Mishra, Nitin Kumar

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of replenishment is to keep the flow of inventory in the system. To determine an optimal replenishment policy is a great challenge in developing an inventory model. Inflation is defined as the rate at which the prices of goods and services are rising over a time period. The cost parameters are affected by the rate of inflation. High rate of inflation affects the organizations financial conditions. Based on the above backdrop the present paper proposes the retailers replenishment policy for deteriorating items with different cycle lengths under inflation. The shortages are partially backlogged. At last numerical examples validate the results.

  7. Inflation targeting and interest rate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, W.H.

    2001-01-01

    The thesis contains a collection of papers on issues in inflation targeting and its implications for the way interest rates are set. In this respect, the first part deals with two largely positive issues: the effect of inflation forecast targeting on the term structure of interest rates and the

  8. MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

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    Antoni Antoni

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The danger of inflation has been the focus of many central banks. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in Malaysia with a backward-looking aggregate supply and demand analysis. The manage floating regime applied in the country has an important role in achieving a stable exchange rate against its major trading partners. It also analyzes the policy of maintaining the soundness of interest rate to perceive inflation targeting to increase its economic growth. Using 1991-2004 data and a traditional structural econometric model, it shows that output gap is important in forecasting a domestic inflation rate by controlling the interest rate.  Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary economics, structural econometric modelJEL classification numbers: E3, E52

  9. Consumers' inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Berk, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach that does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, which makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for non-normal peakedness and asymmetry, we convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into quantitative time series of inflation expectations. After checking the rationa...

  10. Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaling, E.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we analyze disinflation in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has to learn the private sector

  11. THE INFLUENCES OF INFLATION ON THE MONETARY POLICY INTEREST

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    Popa Coralia Emilia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the context of sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a crisis entirely felt also in the direct relation between credit institutions, the National Bank of Romania (NBR adopted a monetary policy strategy meant to determine the reinforcement of its image, by initiating in the autumn of 2011 a new series of reduction of the monetary policy interest rate and implicitly the appropriate resizing of liquidity conditions. By increasing the role of liquidity adjustment, the European Central Bank (ECB succeeded to determine in the money market the decrease of interbank rate interests under the interest rate level of monetary policy. The direct inflation targeting strategy used by the European Central Bank in applying its monetary policy has the first criterion of implementation the expression of inflation target in terms of „headline inflation” (consumer price index - CPI given that the economic market in Romania is familiar with this indicator. Also, the main criterion considered by the investment segment of the market to achieve capital infusions in economic transactions is represented by the consumer price index, this one ensuring the necessary transparency related to the effects of inflation phenomenon. A strong argument supporting the use of consumer price index in monetary policy is represented by its upward flexibility towards the limited effectiveness of monetary aggregates in sizing inflationary anticipations. The downward slope of inflation phenomenon, in whose depreciation the evolution of consumer price index, whose positive trend surprised the European Central Bank, played a significant role, determined adjustments in the monetary policy strategy of the National Bank of Romania and at the same time the achievement of the inflationary target proposed with a direct effect on the monetary policy interest rate. The same measure to reduce the key interest rate is outlined in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and it is

  12. Inflation targeting and core inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Julie Smith

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as the best forecaster of inflation. A cross-country study finds before the start of inflation targeting, but not after, core inflation differs between non-inflation targeters and inflation targeters. Thr...

  13. The Effects of Inflation and Pricing Policies on College Enrollments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostar, Allan W.

    Some of the effects of inflation and pricing policies on college costs are discussed, and it is shown that rising college costs have a negative effect upon student opportunity and access. Continual escalation of tuition and fees can lead to a shrinking of the higher education enterprise. Federal efforts (and state efforts to the extent that they…

  14. A novel stent inflation protocol improves long-term outcomes compared with rapid inflation/deflation deployment method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallurupalli, Srikanth; Kasula, Srikanth; Kumar Agarwal, Shiv; Pothineni, Naga Venkata K; Abualsuod, Amjad; Hakeem, Abdul; Ahmed, Zubair; Uretsky, Barry F

    2017-08-01

    High-pressure inflation for coronary stent deployment is universally performed. However, the duration of inflation is variable and does not take into account differences in lesion compliance. We developed a standardized "pressure optimization protocol" (POP) using inflation pressure stability rather than an arbitrary inflation time or angiographic balloon appearance for stent deployment. Whether this approach improves long-term outcomes is unknown. 792 patients who underwent PCI using either rapid inflation/deflation (n = 376) or POP (n = 416) between January 2009 and March 2014 were included. Exclusion criteria included PCI for acute myocardial infarction, in-stent restenosis, chronic total occlusion, left main, and saphenous vein graft lesions. Primary endpoint was target vessel failure [TVF = combined end point of target vessel revascularization (TVR), myocardial infarction, and cardiac death]. Outcomes were analyzed in the entire cohort and in a propensity analysis. Stent implantation using POP with a median follow-up of 1317 days was associated with lower TVF compared with rapid inflation/deflation (10.1 vs. 17.8%, P inflation/deflation (10 vs. 18%, P < 0.0001). Stent deployment using POP led to reduced TVF compared to rapid I/D. These results recommend this method to improve long-term outcomes. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Ullersma (Cornelis Alexander)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis shows that since the mid 1980s a sharp fall in equity and house prices tends to go hand in hand with a reduction of the monetary policy interest rate, which is the central bank’s main instrument to safeguard price stability. In exceptional circumstances, the policy rate can

  16. Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Pollin; James Heintz

    2007-01-01

    This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

  17. Food inflation in South Africa: some implications for economic policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangasamy, Logan

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the trends in food price movements in South Africa between 1980 and 2008. There are three main results emanating from the analysis in this paper. Firstly, food price movements have played a large role in generating inflationary episodes in South Africa. Secondly, while external influences do matter, South African food price movements are mainly due to domestic influences. This implies that national policy has an important role to play in taming domestic food price inflation. Thirdly, given the strong second round impacts, food price movements warrant special attention in monetary policymaking. Core measures of inflation that exclude food price movements may not accurately reflect the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy and could compromise the attainment of the goal of price stability.

  18. The impact of monetary policy on output and inflation in India: A frequency domain analysis

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    Salunkhe Bhavesh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the recent past, several attempts by the RBI to control inflation through tight monetary policy have ended up slowing the growth process, thereby provoking prolonged discussion among academics and policymakers about the efficacy of monetary policy in India. Against this backdrop, the present study attempts to estimate the causal relationship between monetary policy and its final objectives; i.e., growth, and controlling inflation in India. The methodological tool used is testing for Granger Causality in the frequency domain as developed by Lemmens et al. (2008, and monetary policy has been proxied by the weighted average call money rate. In view of the fact that output gap is one of the determinants of future inflation, an attempt has also been made to study the causal relationship between output gap and inflation. The results of empirical estimation show a bi-directional causality between policy rate and inflation and between policy rate and output, which implies that the monetary authorities in India were equally concerned about inflation and output growth when determining policy. Furthermore, any attempt to control inflation affects output with the same or even greater magnitude than inflation, thereby damaging the growth process. The relationship between output gap and inflation was found to be positive, as reported in earlier studies for India. Furthermore, the output gap causes inflation only in the short-tomediumrun.

  19. The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

    OpenAIRE

    Nathan McLellan; Robert A Buckle; Kunhong Kim

    2004-01-01

    This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy ha...

  20. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  1. Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Dabrowski; Wojciech Paczynski; Lukasz Rawdanowicz

    2002-01-01

    This paper seeks the main factors behind inflation in Russia over the period 1996–2001. It presents a succinct description of Russian monetary policy and inflation developments. The econometric analysis establishes a long-run relationship between demand for the real money balances on the one side and the real income and short-term interest rate on the other side. It also presents several specifications of modeling shortrun dynamics of inflation. An account is made for the change in the exchan...

  2. Monetary policy and the causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia

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    Gatot Sasongko

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Conceptually and empirically, inflation volatility in Indonesia is a monetary and fiscal phenomenon. This study focuses on the macroeconomic policy and public policy especially causality between two variables namely inflation and money supply in Indonesia. This study uses Indonesian macroeconomic data of inflation and money supply from the Bank of Indonesia publication during 2007.1–2017.7. Inflation is measured by the consumer price index, reflects the annual percentage change in costs of acquiring a basket of goods and services to the average consumers that may change at specified intervals. Meanwhile, money supply is measured by the currency, demand deposits, time deposits, and saving deposits. Methodically, this study uses the Granger Causality model to determine the causality between inflation and money supply. The results show that there is a one-way causality between inflation and money supply in Indonesia. These findings imply that money supply causes inflation, but not vice versa. This condition implies that the role of Indonesian Government and Bank of Indonesia were very crucial in managing and controlling macroeconomic policy and public policy. Then, analysis of money supply and inflation also related to impacting factors such as money laundering, role of banks, taxation, tax evasion, and corruption.

  3. Relationship Between Energy Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation; A Case Study of South Asian Economies

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    Atiq-ur-Rehman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Monetary policy tools, including money supply and interest rate, are the most popular instruments to control inflation around the globe. It is assumed that a tight monetary policy, either in form of reduction in money supply or an increase in interest rate, will reduce inflation by reducing aggregate demand in an economy. However, monetary policy could be counterproductive if cost side effects of monetary tightening prevail. High energy prices may increase the cost of production by reducing aggregate supply in the economy. If tight monetary policy is used to reduce this cost push inflation, the cost side effect of energy prices will add to cost side effects of monetary tightening and will become dominant. In this case, the monetary policy could be counterproductive. Furthermore, simultaneous reduction in aggregate supply and aggregate demand will bring twofold reduction in output. Therefore greater care is needed in the use of monetary policy in the situation of cost push inflation. This article investigates the presence of cost side effect of monetary transmission mechanism, the role of international oil prices in domestic inflation, and implications for monetary policy. The findings suggest that both monetary policy and oil prices have cost side effects on inflation and monetary tightening could be counterproductive if used to reduce energy pushed inflationary trend.

  4. The economic policy options and their connection with inflation and unemployment

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    Bogna Kopeć

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economic system after 1990 had many fluctuations. This article applies to two essential phenomena in a free market economy: inflation and unemployment. This article applies to changes in the process of inflation and fluctuations in the unemployment rate under different economic policy options. Economic policies can affect the development of the inflation and unemployment. It includes interest rates and budget deficits. Methodology of model is based on a pendulum. Economic policy has been designated as a synthetic indicator of the resultant two policies - monetary and fiscal policies. With the help of the pendulum model has been established that the character had run monetary and fiscal policy, and how developed as economic policy. By the dominance of one of the policy options is understood that during cycles level inflation or the deficit fluctuated strongly to economic stabilization. One of the stages of the study was to analyze the monetary policy and assess whether there is a link between the evolution of interest rates and the evolution of the inflation rate. In a similar way, fiscal policy was analyzed. This article attempts to determine whether the conduct of economic policy was correct, and has had an impact on the economic situation.

  5. Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria

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    Yu HSING

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper finds evidence of the trilemma for Bulgaria, suggesting that exchange rate stability, monetary independence and free capital mobility are binding and constrained. The policy combination of exchange rate stability and monetary independence has been prevalent. More exchange rate stability increases the growth rate of real GDP whereas more monetary independence or free capital mobility reduces the growth rate. The inflation rate, inflation volatility and output volatility are not affected by either one of the three trilemma policies.

  6. IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY OF FOOD CROPS AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA

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    Ifeoluwa Akin Babalola

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Prices of food crops in Nigeria tend to exhibit similar trend with inflation. The study therefore established quantitatively relationships among agricultural policy, relative price variability (RPV of food crops and inflation in Nigeria. Data for the study includes annual producer prices (nominal and output of food crops and annual inflation rate obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Food and Agricultural Organisation and Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research covering the period of 1970-2009. Analytical tools used were RPV index and Error Correction Method (ECM. The results showed that the variables are stationary at their levels. As inflation increases, RPV of food crops also increases both in short run (0.0002 and the long run (0.0310. Civilian Post-Structural Adjustment Period Policies (CPSAP caused a significant reduction in inflation and consequently reduced the   RPV of food crops in the long run. There is a need for policies that will buffer the food crop sub-sector from the effects of inflation. Policies that reduce the rate of inflation and minimise RPV among food crops are needed. Effective management of inefficiencies and misallocation of resources in the sub-sector should be explored.

  7. Will the SARB always succeed in fighting inflation with contractionary policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Guangling (Dave) Liu

    2011-01-01

    The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supply-side and demand-side effects, at least in the short run. Barth and Ramey (2001) show that the supply-side effect of a monetary policy shock may be greater than the demand-side effect. We argue that it is crucial for monetary authorities to understand whether an increase in expected future inflation is due to supply shocks or demand shocks before applying contractionary policy to forestall inflation. Using a standard New Key...

  8. Will the SARB always succeed in fghting inflation with contractionary policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Guangling (Dave) Liu

    2012-01-01

    The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supply-side and demand-side effects, at least in the short run. Barth and Ramey (2001) show that the supply-side effect of a monetary policy shock may be greater than the demand-side effect. We argue that it is crucial for monetary authorities to understand whether an increase in expected future inflation is due to supply shocks or demand shocks before applying contractionary policy to forestall inflation. We estimate a standard N...

  9. How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman; Baxa, Jaromír; Vašíček, B.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 3 (2014), s. 593-630 ISSN 1365-1005 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Inflation Targeting * Time-Varying Parameter Model * Endogenous Regressors Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.667, year: 2014 http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9205115&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S1365100512000545

  10. TRANSITION TO INFLATION TARGETING IN UKRAINE: NEW TOOLS FOR MONETARY POLICY

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    S. Naumenkova

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Positive experience of inflation targeting in many countries influenced the decision to implement this framework in Ukraine. Authors consider the appropriateness of retaining inflation target under conditions of deteriorating currency market. Uncertainty of forecasts is aggravated by fragile impact of monetary policy on Ukrainian economy in conditions of growing nonlinearity of macroeconomic processes. The authors suggest the possibility of using two channels of transmission mechanism, namely, exchange rate and interest rate, and recommend additional tools to specify targets of monetary policy for the National Bank of Ukraine.

  11. Credit policy, inflation and growth in a financially repressed economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1983-01-01

    This paper analyzes credit policy in an open economy macro-model incorporating stylized facts about the financial sector of less developed countries. The Keynes-Wicksell growth model is applied in view of the transmission channel of monetary policy into the supply side of the economy via the cost of

  12. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

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    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  13. Monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Md. Said, Fathin Faezah; Jusoh, Mansor; Md. Thahir, Md. Zyadi

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy by using backward-looking of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) framework. Since September 1998 until July 2005, Malaysia has implemented a currency pegged to the U.S dollar in responding to the Asian financial crisis. However, since the 21st of July 2005 until at present, the Central Bank of Malaysia (CBM) has eliminated pegging with the U.S dollar and moved to t...

  14. Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    2011-01-01

    Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous expectations.

  15. Optimal pricing and replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items with backlogging and trade credit under inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundara Rajan, R.; Uthayakumar, R.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we develop an economic order quantity model to investigate the optimal replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items under inflation and trade credit. Demand rate is a linear function of selling price and decreases negative exponentially with time over a finite planning horizon. Shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the optimal selling price, optimal order quantity and optimal replenishment time. An easy-to-use algorithm is developed to determine the optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. We also provide optimal present value of profit when shortages are completely backlogged as a special case. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the algorithm provided to obtain optimal profit. And we also obtain managerial implications from numerical examples to substantiate our model. The results show that there is an improvement in total profit from complete backlogging rather than the items being partially backlogged.

  16. Money supply growth and inflation – the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

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    Svatopluk Kapounek

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this article is to find out whether there is a significant relationship between money supply growth and inflation in the Eurozone. For this reason, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB has been evaluated. Since the establishment of the ECB in January 1999 to May 2003 the ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consisted of three main elements: a quantitative definition of price stability, a prominent role for money in the assessment of risks to price stability (aggregate M3 as a reference value, and a broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments. Nevertheless, since May 2003 M3 or any other monetary aggregate has lost its prominent role in the ECB‘s strategy. Therefore the nowadays ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consists of a quantitative definition of the primary objective of price stability and an analytical framework based on two pillars – economic analysis and monetary analysis. These two pillars are used by the ECB‘s Governing Council in the overall assessment of risks to price stability and in monetary policy decisions.The empirical part of this article is based on time series correlation between money supply growth and inflation in selected member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU - Eurozone during the period 1995–2005. The time series are divided into two parts. The first part covers data for selected member countries of the European Union from 1995 till 1998, i.e. before the establishment of the EMU. Whereas the second part includes data for the whole Eurozone since its official start in 1999 to 2005. The time series are adjusted by SARIMA models.

  17. Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

    2013-01-01

    We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

  18. Interest Rate Policy, Inflation and Economic Growth: A Policy Evaluation of Indonesia, 1969-1997

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    Iswardono Sardjono Permono

    2004-09-01

    Basically, either PAKJUN or PAKTO was not policies in which urgently implemented in Indonesia. Those financial deregulations were not supported by the existence of deregulation on real sectors, so that the financial deregulations were not effective to achieve their goals.

  19. Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dylan E McNamara

    Full Text Available Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

  20. Climate Adaptation and Policy-Induced Inflation of Coastal Property Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Dylan E.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad

    2015-01-01

    Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities. PMID:25806944

  1. Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A Brad

    2015-01-01

    Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

  2. IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND RISK PERCEPTION IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IMPLEMENTING INFLATION TARGETING REGIME?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aydan Kansu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Following the recent financial crisis of August 2007 in US, economists and policy makers hold the view that monetary policy may have an effect on real economic activity through ‘risk taking channel’ which indicates the risk behavior of economic agents and the linkages between monetary policy and perception of risk. In this study, we examine whether changes in monetary policy stance influence the risk perceptions and generates any impact on the real side of the economy in Czech Republic, Poland, Russian Federation and Turkey implementing inflation targeting. In the context of a SVAR model, we find that monetary policy does not affect risk perception reflected by stock price variability and any attempt by central banks to stimulate real economic activity through monetary policy also appears to be ineffective in these countries.

  3. National and International Inequalities in Income and Wealth in a Global Growth with Free Trade and National Inflation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WEI-BIN ZHANG

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study global monetary economic growth with heterogeneous households under free trade. The paper examines dynamics of global and national wealth and income distribution in association with monetary economic growth within an integrated framework. Money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA approach. We show that the dynamics of the world economy (with any number of countries is described by a set of differential equations. We simulate equilibrium of the global economy with three countries and two types of households in each country. We also demonstrate effects of changes in technology and inflation policy. Our model demonstrates, as Grier and Grier (2007 empirically show, that the global economy exhibits absolute divergence in output levels if some determinants of steady state income are different. The study shows that as one country increases its inflation policy, the equilibrium values of the global output, consumption level and physical wealth are enhanced, and the rate of interest is lowered. The country which raises its inflation policy benefits in every aspect, but the other countries suffer in some aspects and benefit in others.

  4. Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar

    2010-12-01

    Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.

  5. Inflation Insurance

    OpenAIRE

    Zvi Bodie

    1989-01-01

    A contract to insure $1 against inflation is equivalent to a European call option on the consumer price index. When there is no deductible this call option is equivalent to a forward contract on the CPI. Its price is the difference between the prices of a zero coupon real bond and a zero coupon nominal bond, both free of default risk. Provided that the risk-free real rate of interest is positive, the price of such an inflation insurance policy first rises and then falls with time to maturity....

  6. Eternal inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Winitzki, Sergei

    2009-01-01

    This volume is the only monograph covering the exciting and dazzling recent developments in quantum cosmology, including the theory of the "multiverse" and eternal inflation pioneered by A Vilenkin, A Linde, S W Hawking, and others. Written by a leading expert in the field known for his depth and clarity of presentation, the volume presents an overview of 20 years of development of the theory of eternal inflation as well as a comprehensive, research-level introduction into the current methods and problems. This volume is invaluable for researchers as a definitive reference in the rapidly devel

  7. Post Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy: A Study of Britain, Japan and the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Siamak MONADJEMI

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is now considerable disquiet about the appropriate monetary strategy that central banks should follow in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Several influential commentators have called for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Empirical research examining three major economies demonstrates that inflation targeting was effective prior to the crisis and a more flexible form of targeting may still be appropriate after the crisis.

  8. MONETARY POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. EVIDENCE FROM INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana Plescau

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our study is to review the monetary framework and instruments adopted by the inflation-targeting countries in Central and Eastern Europe, from 2005-ownwards. We employ a qualitative approach and develop a comparative analysis of the changes that occurred in the conduct of monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis. The results highlight that the central banks in our sample have adjusted their policy in order to counteract the effects of the financial crisis and adopt different instruments to fulfill this aim. The contribution of our study is twofold. First, we offer a review of the literature regarding the adjustments in the monetary policy after the crisis and their effectiveness. Second, we make a comparative analysis between countries with respect to the path of monetary policy from conventional to unconventional and assess the (potential way back.

  9. Magnetic Inflation and Stellar Mass. II. On the Radii of Single, Rapidly Rotating, Fully Convective M-Dwarf Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kesseli, Aurora Y.; Muirhead, Philip S.; Mann, Andrew W.; Mace, Greg

    2018-06-01

    Main-sequence, fully convective M dwarfs in eclipsing binaries are observed to be larger than stellar evolutionary models predict by as much as 10%–15%. A proposed explanation for this discrepancy involves effects from strong magnetic fields, induced by rapid rotation via the dynamo process. Although, a handful of single, slowly rotating M dwarfs with radius measurements from interferometry also appear to be larger than models predict, suggesting that rotation or binarity specifically may not be the sole cause of the discrepancy. We test whether single, rapidly rotating, fully convective stars are also larger than expected by measuring their R\\sin i distribution. We combine photometric rotation periods from the literature with rotational broadening (v\\sin i) measurements reported in this work for a sample of 88 rapidly rotating M dwarf stars. Using a Bayesian framework, we find that stellar evolutionary models underestimate the radii by 10 % {--}15{ % }-2.5+3, but that at higher masses (0.18 theory is 13%–18%, and we argue that the discrepancy is unlikely to be due to effects from age. Furthermore, we find no statistically significant radius discrepancy between our sample and the handful of M dwarfs with interferometric radii. We conclude that neither rotation nor binarity are responsible for the inflated radii of fully convective M dwarfs, and that all fully convective M dwarfs are larger than models predict.

  10. Effects of an oil price rise on inflation, output, and the exchange rate in the case of subsidization policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zandi, F R

    1982-01-01

    Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the price of oil by 400% in 1974, the theory of supply inflation has received a great deal of attention. This study analyses the short and long run effects of an oil price rise on output, inflation, and the exchange rate. The study also analyses dynamic adjustments to the oil price rise in cases where oil-price subsidies are provided and where no subsidies are provided. In the no-subsidy case it is shown that the oil price rise can be inflationary or deflationary. The implications of the policy of subsidizing the price of oil is highlighted by taking account of a government budget constraint which in turn leads to the possibility of monetization as a source of financing the deficit, and thereby to higher output relative to the no subsidy case. As to the price level, the possibility is illustrated that subsidization can actually be more inflationary. The important element giving rise to the above possibility is the subsidy induced increase in the money supply. Exchange-rate flexibility is shown not to insulate the domestic price level against an oil price rise. In the long run the rate of inflation and exchange-rate variations are determined by the rate of growth of the money supply. The dynamic adjustment path of price and output is shown to be determined by the rate of adjustment of inflationary expectations.

  11. An EOQ model for a deteriorating item with non-linear demand under inflation and a trade credit policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manna S.K.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an infinite time-horizon deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ inventory model with deterioration based on discounted cash flows (DCF approach where demand rate is assumed to be non-linear over time. The effects of inflation and time-value of money are also taken into account under a trade-credit policy of type "α/T1 net T". The results are illustrated with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out.

  12. Unstable Foundations: Assets Markets, Inflation Targets, and Canada's 2011 Policy Choices

    OpenAIRE

    David Laidler; Robin Banerjee

    2008-01-01

    As a 2011 deadline approaches for reform or renewal of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting program, questions arise about how the Bank's responsibilities for ensuring the financial system's stability are exercised under such a regime. The current financial crisis underlines the urgency of these issues.

  13. Monetary policy and wage bargaining in the EMU: restrictive ECB policies, high unemployment, nominal wage restraint and inflation above the target

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eckhard Hein

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the effects of monetary policy and wage bargaining on employment andinflation in the European Monetary Union (EMU, the first step sees development of a Post-Keynesian competitive claims model of inflation with endogenous money. In this model the NAIRU is considered to be a short-run limit to employment enforced by independent and conservative central banks. In the long run, however, the NAIRU will follow actual unemployment and is therefore also dependent on the forces determining aggregate demand, including monetary policies. But the NAIRU may also be reduced through effectively co-ordinated wage bargaining, as has been shown by institutional political economists. Applying these considerations to the economic performance of the EMU, different scenarios determined by wage bargainingcoordination and the European Central Bank's (ECB monetary policies are developed. It is shown that the first phase of the EMU was dominated by uncoordinated wage bargaining across the EMU and an "anti-growth-bias" of theECB. Thus the euro area was plagued with nominal wage restraint, highunemployment and inflation above the ECB target. Economic performance will improve if the ECB abandons its asymmetric monetary strategy. This may be facilitated by a higher degree of effective wage bargaining co-ordination across the EMU.

  14. Designing Appropriate Exchange Rate Regimes for East Asia: Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Tony Cavoli; Ramkishen Rajan

    2003-01-01

    While favoring relatively more flexible regimes, emerging economies in East Asia and elsewhere appear to heavily manage their currencies despite being officially described as “floaters”. In other words, revealed preferences of regional monetary authorities appear to indicate a high degree of “fear of floating”. The paper first explores the reasons for this fear of floating. It then goes on to examine the case for and operational mechanics behind an open inflation targeting regime which ha...

  15. INFLATE: INFlate Landing Apparatus Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koryanov, V. V. K.; Da-Poian, V. D. P.

    2018-02-01

    Our project, named INFLATE (INFlatable Landing Apparatus Technology), aims at reducing space landing risks and constraints and so optimizing space missions (reducing cost, mass, and risk and in the same time improving performance).

  16. Soft inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkin, Andrew L.; Maeda, Kei-Ichi; Yokoyama, Junichi

    1990-01-01

    The cosmology resulting from two coupled scalar fields was studied, one which is either a new inflation or chaotic type inflation, and the other which has an exponentially decaying potential. Such a potential may appear in the conformally transformed frame of generalized Einstein theories like the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The constraints necessary for successful inflation are examined. Conventional GUT models such as SU(5) were found to be compatible with new inflation, while restrictions on the self-coupling constant are significantly loosened for chaotic inflation.

  17. Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Bill Russell

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports on research into the negative relationship between inflation and the markup. It is argued that this relationship can be thought of as ‘long-run’ in nature which suggests that inflation has a persistent effect on the markup and, therefore, the real wage. A ‘rule of thumb’ from the estimates indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in inflation (as occurred worldwide in the 1970s) is associated with around a 7 per cent fall in the markup accompanied by a similar increase ...

  18. Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mesbah Fathy Sharaf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002 and Clemente–Montanes–Reyes (1998 unit root tests are used. The inflation–inflation uncertainty relation is modeled by the standard two-step approach as well as simultaneously using various versions of the GARCH-M model to control for any potential feedback effects. The analyses explicitly control for the effect of the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP undertaken by the Egyptian government in the early 1990s, which affected inflation rate and its associated volatility. Results show a high degree of inflation–volatility persistence in the response to inflationary shocks. Granger-causality test along with symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-M models indicate a statistically significant bi-directional positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, supporting both the Friedman–Ball and the Cukierman–Meltzer hypotheses. The findings are robust to the various estimation methods and model specifications. The findings of this paper support the view of adopting inflation-targeting policy in Egypt, after fulfilling its preconditions, to reduce the welfare cost of inflation and its related uncertainties. Monetary authorities in Egypt should enhance the credibility of monetary policy and attempt to reduce inflation uncertainty, which will help lower inflation rates.

  19. Flavon inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, S.; King, F.S.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.

    2008-04-01

    We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflation field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these many possibilities we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition. (author)

  20. Flavon inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antusch, S. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Muenchen (Germany); King, S.F.; Malinsky, M. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Velasco-Sevilla, L. [ICTP, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34014 (Italy)], E-mail: lvelasco@ictp.it; Zavala, I. [CPT and IPPP, Durham University, South Road, DH1 3LE, Durham (United Kingdom)

    2008-08-14

    We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A{sub 4} or {delta}{sub 27}, and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition.

  1. Flavon inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, S.; King, S.F.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.

    2008-01-01

    We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition

  2. Core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alkhareif Ryadh M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper constructs and analyzes core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia for the period of March 2012 to May 2014 using two alternative approaches: the exclusion method (ex food and housing/rent and the statistical method. The findings of the analysis suggest that the ex food and housing/ rent inflation is more volatile than the overall CPI inflation over the sample period. In contrast, the statistical core inflation is relatively more stable and less volatile. Moreover, the ex food and housing/rent inflation is only weakly correlated with headline inflation, whereas the statistical core inflation exhibits a stronger correlation. This combination of lower volatility and higher correlation with headline inflation makes the statistical method a much better choice for policymakers. From a monetary policy standpoint, using a bundle of core inflation measures, including both properly constructed exclusion and statistical methods, is more desirable, especially when variation across measures is widespread, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.

  3. Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    dogru, bulent

    2014-01-01

    Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation ...

  4. Multiple inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, P.J.

    1987-01-01

    The Theory of Inflation, namely, that at some point the entropy content of the universe was greatly increased, has much promise. It may solve the puzzles of homogeneity and the creation of structure. However, no particle physics model has yet been found that can successfully drive inflation. The difficulty in satisfying the constraint that the isotropy of the microwave background places on the effective potential of prospective models is immense. In this work we have codified the requirements of such models in a most general form. We have carefully calculated the amounts of inflation the various problems of the Standard Model need for their solution. We have derived a completely model independent upper bond on the inflationary Hubble parameter. We have developed a general notation with which to probe the possibilities of Multiple Inflation. We have shown that only in very unlikely circumstances will any evidence of an earlier inflation, survive the de Sitter period of its successor. In particular, it is demonstrated that it is most unlikely that two bouts of inflation will yield high amplitudes of density perturbations on small scales and low amplitudes on large. We conclude that, while multiple inflation will be of great theoretical interest, it is unlikely to have any observational impact

  5. Galileon inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burrage, Clare [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Rham, Claudia de [Univ. de Geneve (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique; Seery, David [Sussex Univ., Brigthon (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Tolley, Andrew J. [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics

    2010-09-15

    Galileon inflation is a radiatively stable higher derivative model of inflation. The model is determined by a finite number of relevant operators which are protected by a covariant generalization of the Galileon shift symmetry. We show that the nongaussianity of the primordial density perturbation generated during an epoch of Galileon inflation is a particularly powerful observational probe of these models and that, when the speed of sound is small, f{sub NL} can be larger than the usual result f{sub NL} {proportional_to} C{sup -2}{sub s}. (orig.)

  6. Replenishment policy for Entropic Order Quantity (EnOQ model with two component demand and partial back-logging under inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhanupriya Dash

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Replenishment policy for entropic order quantity model with two component demand and partial backlogging under inflation is an important subject in the stock management. Methods: In this paper an inventory model for  non-instantaneous  deteriorating items with stock dependant consumption rate and partial back logged in addition the effect of inflection and time value of money on replacement policy with zero lead time consider was developed. Profit maximization model is formulated by considering the effects of partial backlogging under inflation with cash discounts. Further numerical example presented to evaluate the relative performance between the entropic order quantity and EOQ models separately. Numerical example is present to demonstrate the developed model and to illustrate the procedure. Lingo 13.0 version software used to derive optimal order quantity and total cost of inventory. Finally sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to different parameters of the system carried out. Results and conclusions: The obtained inventory model is very useful in retail business. This model can extend to total backorder.

  7. Applying Rapid Acquisition Policy Lessons for Defense Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-21

    import- ing Silicon Valley- style innovation practices to its acquisition process, it is im- portant to assess an organization’s ability to...these efforts. Keywords: defense acquisition, defense procurement, rapid acquisition, de- fense innovation, program management , organizational culture...Device De- feat Organization, JIEDDO, Rapid Equipping Force, REF Silicon Valley- style innovation is a hot topic in the Department of De-fense (DOD). For

  8. Predictability of Competing Measures of Core Inflation: An Application for Peru Predictability of Competing Measures of Core Inflation: An Application for Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Luis F. Zegarra; Eduardo Morón

    1999-01-01

    A central element of an inflation targeting approach to monetary policy is a proper measure of inflation. The international evidence suggests the use of core inflation measures. In this paper we claim that core inflation should be measured as the underlying trend of inflation that comes from nominal shocks that have no real effect in the long term. However, most of the time core inflation is computed zero weighting observations at the tail of the inflation distribution. Quah and Vahey (1996) ...

  9. Chemical regulation on fire: rapid policy advances on flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordner, Alissa; Mulcahy, Margaret; Brown, Phil

    2013-07-02

    Chemicals that are widely used in consumer products offer challenges to product manufacturers, risk managers, environmental regulators, environmental scientists, and the interested public. However, the factors that cause specific chemicals to rise to the level of regulatory, scientific, and social movement concern and scrutiny are not well documented, and scientists are frequently unclear about exactly how their research impacts policy. Through a case study of advocacy around flame retardant chemicals, this paper traces the pathways through which scientific evidence and concern is marshaled by both advocacy groups and media sources to affect policy change. We focus our analysis around a broad coalition of environmental and public health advocacy organizations and an investigative journalism series published in 2012 in the Chicago Tribune. We demonstrate that the Tribune series both brought the issue to a wider public audience and precipitated government action, including state policy revisions and federal Senate hearings. We also show how a broad and successful flame retardant coalition developed, leveraged a media event, and influenced policy at multiple institutional levels. The analysis draws on over 110 in-depth interviews, literature and Web site reviews, and observations at a flame retardant manufacturing company, government offices, and scientific and advocacy conferences.

  10. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  11. Double inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silk, J.; Turner, M.S.

    1986-04-01

    The Zel'dovich spectrum of adiabatic density perturbations is a generic prediction of inflation. There is increasing evidence that when the spectrum is normalized by observational data on small scales, there is not enough power on large scales to account for the observed large-scale structure in the Universe. Decoupling the spectrum on large and small scales could solve this problem. As a means of decoupling the large and small scales we propose double inflation (i.e., two episodes of inflation). In this scenario the spectrum on large scales is determined by the first episode of inflation and those on small scales by a second episode of inflation. We present three models for such a scenario. By nearly saturating the large angular-scale cosmic microwave anisotropy bound, we can easily account for the observed large-scale structure. We take the perturbations on small scales to be very large, deltarho/rho approx. = 0.1 to 0.01, which results in the production of primordial black holes (PBHs), early formation of structure, reionization of the Universe, and a rich array of astrophysical events. The Ω-problem is also addressed by our scenario. Allowing the density perturbations produced by the second episode of inflation to be large also lessens the fine-tuning required in the scalar potential and makes reheating much easier. We briefly speculate on the possibility that the second episode of inflation proceeds through the nucleation of bubbles, which today manifest themselves as empty bubbles whose surfaces are covered with galaxies. 37 refs., 1 fig

  12. Anisotropic inflation from charged scalar fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Movahed, S.M. Sadegh; Zarei, Moslem

    2011-01-01

    We consider models of inflation with U(1) gauge fields and charged scalar fields including symmetry breaking potential, chaotic inflation and hybrid inflation. We show that there exist attractor solutions where the anisotropies produced during inflation becomes comparable to the slow-roll parameters. In the models where the inflaton field is a charged scalar field the gauge field becomes highly oscillatory at the end of inflation ending inflation quickly. Furthermore, in charged hybrid inflation the onset of waterfall phase transition at the end of inflation is affected significantly by the evolution of the background gauge field. Rapid oscillations of the gauge field and its coupling to inflaton can have interesting effects on preheating and non-Gaussianities

  13. Fluxbrane Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Hebecker, Arthur; Lust, Dieter; Steinfurt, Stephan; Weigand, Timo

    2012-01-01

    As a first step towards inflation in genuinely F-theoretic setups, we propose a scenario where the inflaton is the relative position of two 7-branes on holomorphic 4-cycles. Non-supersymmetric gauge flux induces an attractive inter-brane potential. The latter is sufficiently flat in the supergravity regime of large volume moduli. Thus, in contrast to brane-antibrane inflation, fluxbrane inflation does not require warping. We calculate the inflaton potential both in the supergravity approximation and via an open-string one-loop computation on toroidal backgrounds. This leads us to propose a generalisation to genuine Calabi-Yau manifolds. We also comment on competing F-term effects. The end of inflation is marked by the condensation of tachyonic recombination fields between the 7-branes, triggering the formation of a bound state described as a stable extension along the 7-brane divisor. Hence our model fits in the framework of hybrid D-term inflation. We work out the main phenomenological properties of our D-te...

  14. Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Frederic S. Mishkin

    2000-01-01

    This paper outlines what inflation targeting involves for emerging market/transition countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this monetary policy strategy. The discussion suggests that although inflation targeting is not a panacea and may not be appropriate for many emerging market countries, it can be a highly useful monetary policy strategy in a number of them.

  15. Single Sustained Inflation followed by Ventilation Leads to Rapid Cardiorespiratory Recovery but Causes Cerebral Vascular Leakage in Asphyxiated Near-Term Lambs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina S Sobotka

    Full Text Available A sustained inflation (SI rapidly restores cardiac function in asphyxic, bradycardic newborns but its effects on cerebral haemodynamics and brain injury are unknown. We determined the effect of different SI strategies on carotid blood flow (CaBF and cerebral vascular integrity in asphyxiated near-term lambs.Lambs were instrumented and delivered at 139 ± 2 d gestation and asphyxia was induced by delaying ventilation onset. Lambs were randomised to receive 5 consecutive 3 s SI (multiple SI; n = 6, a single 30 s SI (single SI; n = 6 or conventional ventilation (no SI; n = 6. Ventilation continued for 30 min in all lambs while CaBF and respiratory function parameters were recorded. Brains were assessed for gross histopathology and vascular leakage.CaBF increased more rapidly and to a greater extent during a single SI (p = 0.01, which then decreased below both other groups by 10 min, due to a higher cerebral oxygen delivery (p = 0.01. Blood brain barrier disruption was increased in single SI lambs as indicated by increased numbers of blood vessel profiles with plasma protein extravasation (p = 0.001 in the cerebral cortex. There were no differences in CaBF or cerebral oxygen delivery between the multiple SI and no SI lambs.Ventilation with an initial single 30 s SI improves circulatory recovery, but is associated with greater disruption of blood brain barrier function, which may exacerbate brain injury suffered by asphyxiated newborns. This injury may occur as a direct result of the initial SI or to the higher tidal volumes delivered during subsequent ventilation.

  16. Dual Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    García-Bellido, J

    1998-01-01

    We propose a new model of inflation based on the soft-breaking of N=2 supersymmetric SU(2) Yang-Mills theory. The advantage of such a model is the fact that we can write an exact expression for the effective scalar potential, including non-perturbative effects, which preserves the analyticity and duality properties of the Seiberg-Witten solution. We find that the scalar condensate that plays the role of the inflaton can drive a long period of cosmological expansion, produce the right amount of temperature anisotropies in the microwave background, and end inflation when the monopole acquires a vacuum expectation value. Duality properties relate the weak coupling Higgs region where inflation takes place with the strong coupling monopole region, where reheating occurs, creating particles corresponding to the light degrees of freedom in the true vacuum.

  17. Formula inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antipov Valerij Ivanovich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article gives a modern interpretation of the Fisher formula, the calculated velocity of circulation of money supply M2 in the interval 1995-2013 and forecast of its changes until 2030 when hypotheses about the rate of inflation and GDP. Points to the fallacy of its direct use to control inflation and money supply. For a more detailed understanding of the inflationary process proposes a new frequency formula and the explanation of the situation with the regulation of prices in the economy.

  18. Trapped Inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Daniel; Horn, Bart; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; Senatore, Leonardo; /Princeton, Inst. Advanced Study /Harvard U., Phys. Dept. /Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Silverstein, Eva; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

    2009-06-19

    We analyze a distinctive mechanism for inflation in which particle production slows down a scalar field on a steep potential, and show how it descends from angular moduli in string compactifications. The analysis of density perturbations - taking into account the integrated effect of the produced particles and their quantum fluctuations - requires somewhat new techniques that we develop. We then determine the conditions for this effect to produce sixty e-foldings of inflation with the correct amplitude of density perturbations at the Gaussian level, and show that these requirements can be straightforwardly satisfied. Finally, we estimate the amplitude of the non-Gaussianity in the power spectrum and find a significant equilateral contribution.

  19. Theoretical aspects of inflation targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obradović Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Inflation targeting is one of the possible strategies used by central banks during conducting monetary policy. The basic characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of inflation targeting will be presented in this paper. The focus is on the the presentation and interpretation of the understanding of this strategy from the perspective of monetarist and Keynesian theory, the theory of rational expectations, and methodological analysis of the strategy in light of the game theory using payoff matrix.

  20. Next Generation of Renewable Electricity Policy: How Rapid Change is Breaking Down Conventional Policy Categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couture, T. D. [E3 Analytics, Berlin (Germany); Jacobs, D. [International Energy Transition (IET), Boston, MA (United States); Rickerson, W. [Meister Consultants Group, Boston, MA (United States); Healey, V. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A number of policies have been used historically in order to stimulate the growth of the renewable electricity sector. This paper examines four of these policy instruments: competitive tendering, sometimes called renewable electricity auctions, feed-in tariffs, net metering and net billing, and tradable renewable energy certificates. In recent years, however, a number of changes to both market circumstances and to policy priorities have resulted in numerous policy innovations, including the emergence of policy hybrids. With no common language for these evolving policy mechanisms, policymakers have generally continued to use the same traditional policy labels, occasionally generating confusion as many of these new policies no longer look, or act, like their traditional predecessors. In reviewing these changes, this paper makes two separate but related claims: first, policy labels themselves are breaking down and evolving. As a result, policy comparisons that rely on the conventional labels may no longer be appropriate, or advisable. Second, as policymakers continue to adapt, we are in effect witnessing the emergence of the next generation of renewable electricity policies, a change that could have significant impacts on investment, as well as on market growth in both developed and developing countries.

  1. Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Ghulam Rasool Madni

    2014-01-01

    Fiscal policy has more controversial debate regarding its effectiveness on different macroeconomic activities of an economy. Taxation and government expenditure are two main instruments of fiscal policy. This paper is aimed to analyze and update the effects of different instruments of fiscal policy on inflation in Pakistan economy. The data time span for this study is 1979-2013. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation is analyzed by utilizing the Bounds testing procedure and ARDL approach of...

  2. Hyperextended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhardt, P.J.; Accetta, F.S.

    1990-01-01

    We present a dynamical mechanism for completing inflationary phase transitions via bubble nucleation which can satisfy all known constraints for a wide spectrum of models and parameters. The approach is a generalization of the recent ''extended inflation'' model which corrects a serious flaw. We find an essentially model-independent bubble-size distribution which may be important for large-scale structure

  3. Cosmological inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Enqvist, K

    2012-01-01

    The very basics of cosmological inflation are discussed. We derive the equations of motion for the inflaton field, introduce the slow-roll parameters, and present the computation of the inflationary perturbations and their connection to the temperature fluctuations of the cosmic microwave background.

  4. Inflatonless Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Chiu Man; Kephart, Thomas W.

    2010-01-01

    We consider a 4+N dimensional Einstein gravity coupled to a non-linear sigma model. This theory admits a solution in which the N extra dimensions contract exponentially while the ordinary space expand exponentially. Physically, the non-linear sigma fields induce the dynamical compactification of the extra dimensions, which in turn drives inflation. No inflatons are required.

  5. Inflation or unemployment? Who cares?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Lelyveld, Iman

    In the last two decades a large number of game-theoretic models describing monetary policy have been used to examine the characteristics of policies over a wide range of 'rules of the game'. Regardless of the specification of the model, the degree of inflation aversion - relative to unemployment -

  6. Inflation in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, J.D.; California Univ., Berkeley; Turner, M.S.; Chicago Univ., IL

    1981-01-01

    The problems of explaining the observed isotropy, homogeneity, flatness and specific entropy of the Universe are discussed in the context of an inflationary Universe which has recently been suggested. It is shown that the isotropy cannot be ignored as a Universe with a large amount of anisotropy will not undergo the inflationary phase. A Universe with only moderate anistropy will undergo inflation and will be rapidly isotropized. (U.K.)

  7. Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform and Inflation Stabilization in Romania.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Budina, N.

    2001-01-01

    Investigates the consistency between inflation, monetary reform and fiscal policy in Romania. Offers a framework for the assessment of the fiscal and monetary interactions of Romanian economy; Shows impact of inflation on fiscal inconsistency measure; Considers importance of consolidating public

  8. Clockwork Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Kehagias, Alex

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the recently proposed clockwork mechanism delivering light degrees of freedom with suppressed interactions and show, with various examples, that it can be efficiently implemented in inflationary scenarios to generate flat inflaton potentials and small density perturbations without fine-tunings. We also study the clockwork graviton in de Sitter and, interestingly, we find that the corresponding clockwork charge is site-dependent. As a consequence, the amount of tensor modes is generically suppressed with respect to the standard cases where the clockwork set-up is not adopted. This point can be made a virtue in resurrecting models of inflation which were supposed to be ruled out because of the excessive amount of tensor modes from inflation.

  9. Oil price pass-through into inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shiu-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses data from 19 industrialized countries to investigate oil price pass-through into inflation across countries and over time. A time-varying pass-through coefficient is estimated and the determinants of the recent declining effects of oil shocks on inflation are investigated. The appreciation of the domestic currency, a more active monetary policy in response to inflation, and a higher degree of trade openness are found to explain the decline in oil price pass-through. (author)

  10. Goldstone inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex,Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

    2015-10-05

    Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

  11. Goldstone inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack

    2015-10-01

    Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

  12. Goldstone inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

  13. Inflation and the price of oil in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Globerman, S A [York Univ., Toronto; Bruce, H A

    1976-09-01

    A current policy concern in North America is how rapidly (if at all) domestic oil prices should be allowed to rise to world levels. An argument frequently used by those advocating control of domestic prices is that further increases in oil prices would impose undue burdens in the form of greater inflation and unemployment. While long-run costs associated with allocative inefficiencies are recognized, critics of policies calling for decontrolling domestic oil prices argue that the short-run costs associated with greater inflation and higher unemployment outweigh the long-run inefficiencies associated with price controls. Estimates of the impacts of increased oil costs are not easy. Three studies by Ontario on the consumer price index are described, and the authors conclude that the figures from these studies are too high. Some results of U.S. studies are cited. (MCW)

  14. Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Erick Lahura; Marco Vega

    2011-01-01

    Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identication of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation measures". In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of ...

  15. Targeting nominal income growth or inflation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    Within a simple New Keynesian model emphasizing forward-looking behavior of private agents, I evaluate optimal nominal income growth targeting versus optimal inflation targeting. When the economy is mainly subject to shocks that do not involve monetary policy trade-offs for society, inflation...

  16. Optimal inflation for the U.S.

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto M. Billi

    2007-01-01

    What is the correctly measured inflation rate that monetary policy should aim for in the long-run? This paper characterizes the optimal inflation rate for the U.S. economy in a New Keynesian sticky-price model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. Real-rate and mark-up shocks jointly determine the optimal inflation rate to be positive but not large. Even allowing for the possibility of extreme model misspecification, the optimal inflation rate is robustly...

  17. Güvenilirlik İhtiyacı ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Politikaları(The Need of Credibility and Inflation Targeting Policies in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeynep KARAÇOR

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the early years of 1990, new frameworks and the economical preferences change has made countries approach inflation targeting adoptation. In this essay, besides the results and reasons of inflationary targeting, the time incompetency of monetary policies and the problem of reliabilty has been discussed. That the inflationary targeting is only effective policy provided that adopted with determined, willing and consistent monetary policy appears as a result coming from recent countries cases. Therefore, new frameworks and changes seen in economical preferences are found out to be usefull strategic tool for countries.

  18. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  19. Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

  20. Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

  1. Inflation Aversion and the Optimal Inflation Tax

    OpenAIRE

    Gaowang Wang; Heng-fu Zou

    2011-01-01

    The optimal inflation tax is reexamined in the framework of dynamic second best economy populated by individuals with inflation aversion. A simple formula for the optimal inflation rate is derived. Different from the literature, it is shown that if the marginal excess burden of other distorting taxes approaches zero, Friedman's rule for optimum quantity of money is not optimal, and the optimal inflation tax is negative; if the marginal excess burden of other taxes is nonzero, the optimal infl...

  2. THE PROSPECT OF INFLATION TARGETING IN KAZAKHSTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhandos Ybrayev

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, there has been a significant increase in the number of countries that began to pursue an Inflation Targeting monetary policy framework. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, each of the fifteen newly created independent countries started to develop and run their own autonomous monetary policies. Kazakhstan announced the implementation of an Inflation Targeting policy in August 2015. At the same time, a number of researches show that Inflation Targeting might not work as well for developing countries as it does for developed ones due to certain fundamental differences and preconditions that must be met before the implementation phase. Thus, this paper discusses the case of Kazakhstan as a typical emerging market economy example, examines its ability to respond to various external shocks and identifies the main transmission channels in order to contribute to the knowledge in this particular area. Identification assumptions generate contemporaneous monetary shocks on domestic inflation behavior, which also take into account various features of the small open economy as well as indicate different important transitory and persistent effects. The results show, based on the interpretation of impulse response functions, a positive interest rate shock has an uncertain inflationary impact, which raises questions about the effectiveness of interest rate manipulation in keeping inflation within the given band. In addition, a positive exchange rate shock leads to a stronger upward pressure in inflation rates. Finally, inflation inertia explains a substantial increase in future inflation rates.

  3. The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

    OpenAIRE

    Naresh Kumar Sharma; Motilal Bicchal

    2018-01-01

    Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, sugge...

  4. Spotted inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2010-01-01

    We describe new scenarios for generating curvature perturbations when inflaton (curvaton) has significant interactions. We consider a ''spot'', which arises from interactions associated with an enhanced symmetric point (ESP) on the trajectory. Our first example uses the spot to induce a gap in the field equation. We observe that the gap in the field equation may cause generation of curvature perturbation if it does not appear simultaneous in space. The mechanism is similar to the scenario of inhomogeneous phase transition. Then we observe that the spot interactions may initiate warm inflation in the cold Universe. Creation of cosmological perturbation is discussed in relation to the inflaton dynamics and the modulation associated with the spot interactions

  5. Estimation of Unobserved Inflation Expectations in India using State-Space Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha; Sahu, Sohini; Jha, Saakshi

    2016-01-01

    Inflation expectations is an important marker for monetary policy makers. India being a new entrant to the group of countries that pursue inflation targeting as its monetary policy objective, estimating the inflation expectation is of paramount importance. This paper estimates the unobserved inflation expectations in India between 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q1 from the Fisher equation relation using the state space approach (Kalman Filter). We find that our results match well with the inflation forecast...

  6. The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazima Ellahi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan utilizing a data set over 1975 to 2015. The empirical analysis is carried out with application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag methodology. The estimation methods find the short run and long run impact of each variable on inflation and also found the speed of adjustment. Analysis used money supply, national expenditure, imports of goods and services and GDP growth as exogenous variables while taking inflation as an endogenous variable. Major preliminary findings suggested that money supply and national expenditure have significant effect on inflation, where national expenditure has a positive impact on inflation but money supply implies negative impact on inflation. Moreover, GDP growth has negative impact on inflation and imports of goods and services have positive impact on inflation. The findings for short run effect showed that none of the variable proves to be a significant determinant of inflation in short run. In sum, study suggested a few policy recommendations for keeping the inflation at level required for country to grow.

  7. Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Rasool Madni

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Fiscal policy has more controversial debate regarding its effectiveness on different macroeconomic activities of an economy. Taxation and government expenditure are two main instruments of fiscal policy. This paper is aimed to analyze and update the effects of different instruments of fiscal policy on inflation in Pakistan economy. The data time span for this study is 1979-2013. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation is analyzed by utilizing the Bounds testing procedure and ARDL approach of co-integration which is a better estimation technique for small sample size. It is found that investment negatively and significantly affect the inflation rate. The outcomes of the study show that both types of taxes (direct and indirect are causing to increase the inflation level while fiscal deficit is also one of the reasons to increase the inflation in the country. The study proposed that government should decrease the level of expenditure to reduce the level of fiscal deficit and investment have to be promoted to decrease the inflation in the country. Furthermore, it is also suggested to decrease the level of taxation for controlling inflation.

  8. Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, nonfood price inflation and overall inflation: A case of an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael T Mpofu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that

  9. Inflation Basics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The last few years have yielded remarkable discoveries in physics. In particle physics it appears that a fundamental scalar field exists. The Higgs boson is measured to have a mass of about 126 GeV and to have spin zero and positive parity. The Higgs field is the first fundamental scalar to be discovered in physics. The Cosmic Microwave Background, CMB, is known to have a uniform temperature to parts per 10 5 , but has well measured fluctuations, which are thought to evolve gravitationally to provide the seeds of the current structure of the Universe. In addition, the Universe appears to contain, at present, an unknown ''dark energy'', which is presently the majority energy density of the Universe, larger than either matter or radiation. This may, indeed, be a fundamental scalar field like the Higgs. ''Big Bang'' (BB) cosmology is a very successful ''standard model'' in cosmology. However, it cannot explain the uniformity of the CMB because the CMB consists of many regions not causally connected in the context of the BB model. In addition, the Universe appears to be spatially flat. However, in BB cosmology the present spatial curvature is not stable, so that the initial conditions for BB cosmology would need to be fantastically fine-tuned in order to successfully predict the presently small value of the observed curvature. These issues for BB cosmology have led to the hypothesis of ''inflation'' which postulates an unknown scalar field, not presumably the Higgs field or the dark energy, which causes an exponential expansion of the Universe at very early times. This attractive hypothesis can account for the problems in BB cosmology of flatness and causal CMB connectivity. In addition, the quantum fluctuations of this postulated field provide a natural explanation of the CMB fluctuations which are the seeds of the structure of galaxies. Researchers are now searching for gravitational

  10. INFLATION TARGETING IN EASTERN EUROPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurian Lungu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the inflation targeting approach in three transition economies, namely Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic with the use of Taylor rules as benchmarks. The three economies considered have been successful at achieving disinflation, but deviations of inflation from its target have been persistent in all cases. Except for the Czech Republic, deviations from the Taylor rule are large and persistent, with Hungary displaying the largest fluctuations. Polish interest rates have consistently exceeded those suggested by the Taylor rule and given the prevalence of high unemployment, these undershootings do not augur well for the stability of monetary policy. Finally, the behaviour of Czech interest rates can be remarkably captured by the simple Taylor rule proposed in this paper, suggesting that the Czech National Bank has been the most successful at stabilising inflation and output around their target levels.

  11. What Drives China's Food-Price Inflation and How does It Affect the Aggregate Inflation?

    OpenAIRE

    Wenlang Zhang; Daniel Law

    2010-01-01

    It is typically argued that China's food-price inflation has been mainly driven by supply-side shocks including natural disasters. Our research, however, shows that demand pressures have played a more important role from a medium-term perspective. This suggests surging food prices may call for policy reactions even if non-food-price inflation is tame. Meanwhile, we find food-price inflation has not generated significant second-round effects on non-food-price inflation. In particular, while fo...

  12. Implementing inflation targeting regimes: The case of Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Gottschalk, Jan; Moore, David

    1999-01-01

    This paper assesses the prospects for the new Polish monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting. Regarding the general requirements for implementing an inflation targeting strategy it appears that Poland has made sufficient progress in reducing fiscal dominance and hardening budget constraints. The paper also finds that the exchange rate has played a dominant role as a policy instrument, with the linkages between the short-term interest rate and inflation remaining unclear. Given this un...

  13. Exchange rate regimes and inflation: Evidence from India.

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Biswajit; Bhanumurthy, N.R.

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a `policy discipline effect'- restricting money supply growth, and a `credibility effect'- inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the impossibility trillema predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a mo...

  14. ''Old'' locked inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yang; Piao, Yun-Song; Si, Zong-Guo

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we revisit the idea of locked inflation, which does not require a potential satisfying the normal slow-roll condition, but suffers from the problems associated with ''saddle inflation''. We propose a scenario based on locked inflation, however, with an alternative evolution mechanism of the ''waterfall field'' φ. Instead of rolling down along the potential, the φ field will tunnel to end the inflation stage like in old inflation, by which the saddle inflation could be avoided. Further, we study a cascade of old locked inflation, which can be motivated by the string landscape. Our model is based on the consideration of making locked inflation feasible so as to give a working model without slow roll; It also can be seen as an effort to embed the old inflation in string landscape

  15. Generalized Higgs inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Hakubi Center; Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Takahashi, Tomo [Saga Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (JP). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (JP). Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU)

    2012-03-15

    We study Higgs inflation in the context of generalized G-inflation, i.e., the most general single-field inflation model with second-order field equations. The four variants of Higgs inflation proposed so far in the literature can be accommodated at one time in our framework. We also propose yet another class of Higgs inflation, the running Einstein inflation model, that can naturally arise from the generalized G-inflation framework. As a result, five Higgs inflation models in all should be discussed on an equal footing. Concise formulas for primordial fluctuations in these generalized Higgs inflation models are provided, which will be helpful to determine which model is favored from the future experiments and observations such as the Large Hadron Collider and the Planck satellite.

  16. Eternal hilltop inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barenboim, Gabriela; Park, Wan-Il; Kinney, William H.

    2016-01-01

    We consider eternal inflation in hilltop-type inflation models, favored by current data, in which the scalar field in inflation rolls off of a local maximum of the potential. Unlike chaotic or plateau-type inflation models, in hilltop inflation the region of field space which supports eternal inflation is finite, and the expansion rate H EI during eternal inflation is almost exactly the same as the expansion rate H * during slow roll inflation. Therefore, in any given Hubble volume, there is a finite and calculable expectation value for the lifetime of the ''eternal'' inflation phase, during which quantum flucutations dominate over classical field evolution. We show that despite this, inflation in hilltop models is nonetheless eternal in the sense that the volume of the spacetime at any finite time is exponentially dominated by regions which continue to inflate. This is true regardless of the energy scale of inflation, and eternal inflation is supported for inflation at arbitrarily low energy scale.

  17. PERSPECTIVES OF INFLATION TARGETING, IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COROIU SORINA IOANA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the context of economic crisis, monetary policy makers are facing a number of challenges, including the selection and implementation of the best monetary policy. In this paper, we want to see if inflation targeting is or is not a solution to exit the economic crisis. If the answer is positive, then what would be the optimal level of inflation? Many central banks target an inflation rate of 2%. In this paper we intend to show that, in certain circumstances, a very low level of inflation can significantly reduce the stabilizing effects of monetary policy. A slightly higher value of inflation targeting would reduce the constraints on monetary policy, caused by the appearance of liquidity trap. The risk for the interest rates of monetary policy to achieve zero level is related to the central banks’ choise of the appropriate inflation target. We believe that an increase in the inflation target of 2% to 4% would ease monetary policy constraints arising from the liquidity trap problem. If inflation targeting is not a solution to exit the crisis, then are there other strategies that would be a better alternative? Following this analysis, no obvious alternatives were identified, so far, there is no clear reason for that to abandon inflation targeting.

  18. Inflation persistence in African countries: Does inflation targeting matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Phiri, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates inflation persistence in annual CPI inflation collected between 1994 and 2014 for 46 African countries. We group these countries into panels according to whether they are inflation targeters or not and conduct estimations for pre and post inflation targeting periods. Interestingly enough, we find that inflation persistence was much higher for inflation targeters in periods before adopting their inflation targeting regimes and inflation persistence dropped by 40 percent...

  19. Inflation Basics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Dan [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

    2014-03-01

    inflation since metrical fluctuations, both scalar and tensor, are also produced in inflationary models. Thus, the time appears to be appropriate for a very basic and simple exposition of the inflationary model written from a particle physics perspective. Only the simplest scalar model will be explored because it is easy to understand and contains all the basic elements of the inflationary model.

  20. Rapid urbanization and the need for sustainable transportation policies in Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukmana, D.

    2018-03-01

    Not only is Jakarta the largest metropolitan area in Southeast Asia, it is the also one of the most dynamic, though beset with most of the urban problems experienced in twenty-first century Southeast Asia. Batavia, colonial capital of the Netherland Indies in the first half of the 20th century was a small urban area of approximately 150,000 residents. In the second half, Batavia became Jakarta, the 28 million megacity capital of independent Indonesia. Among many urban problems, one major problem plagued Jakarta in the last two decades is traffic congestions. This paper discusses the extent to which rapid urbanization in Jakarta has contributed to the need for sustainable transportation policies in Jakarta. The development of MRT could be viable solutions to alleviate the acute traffic jams in Jakarta. Jakarta will need to implement other innovative sustainable transportation policies including promoting active live through more walking and bicycling, carpool matching services, shuttle services, telecommuting and downzoning in downtown areas.

  1. Operational research leading to rapid national policy change: tuberculosis-diabetes collaboration in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A M V; Satyanarayana, S; Wilson, N C; Chadha, S S; Gupta, D; Nair, S; Zachariah, R; Kapur, A; Harries, A D

    2014-06-21

    In 2011, bi-directional screening for tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) was recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), although how best to implement the activity was not clear. In India, with early engagement of national programme managers and all important stakeholders, a countrywide, multicentre operational research (OR) project was designed in October 2011 and completed in 2012. The results led to a rapid national policy decision to routinely screen all TB patients for DM in September 2012. The process, experience and enablers of implementing this unique and successful collaborative model of operational research are presented.

  2. Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorna Katusiime

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of inflation volatility on private sector credit growth. The results indicate that private sector credit growth is positively linked to the one period lagged inflation volatility. Given that past monetary policy actions continue to affect the targeted variables due to the substantial lags in the transmission mechanism, the positive response of private sector credit growth to past inflation volatility suggests a credible monetary policy regime in Uganda, which has led to a reduction in the level of macroeconomic uncertainty and the restoration of favorable economic conditions and prospects, thus increasing the demand for credit. Further, the study finds that the lagged private sector credit growth, nominal exchange rate, and inflation have a statistically significant effect on private sector credit growth while financial innovation, interest rates, and GDP growth appear not to be important determinants of private sector credit growth. The robustness of our findings is confirmed by sensitivity checks.

  3. First-order inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolb, E.W.

    1991-01-01

    In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been reviewed. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result if inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. (orig.)

  4. First-order inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL

    1990-09-01

    In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been revived. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result in inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. 58 refs., 3 figs

  5. Retrofitting models of inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kain, Ben

    2009-01-01

    I use the method of retrofitting, developed by Dine, Feng and Silverstein, to generate the scale of inflation dynamically, allowing it to be naturally small. This is a general procedure that may be performed on existing models of supersymmetric inflation. I illustrate this idea on two such models, one an example of F-term inflation and the other an example of D-term inflation.

  6. Spacetime Curvature and Higgs Stability after Inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herranen, M; Markkanen, T; Nurmi, S; Rajantie, A

    2015-12-11

    We investigate the dynamics of the Higgs field at the end of inflation in the minimal scenario consisting of an inflaton field coupled to the standard model only through the nonminimal gravitational coupling ξ of the Higgs field. Such a coupling is required by renormalization of the standard model in curved space, and in the current scenario also by vacuum stability during high-scale inflation. We find that for ξ≳1, rapidly changing spacetime curvature at the end of inflation leads to significant production of Higgs particles, potentially triggering a transition to a negative-energy Planck scale vacuum state and causing an immediate collapse of the Universe.

  7. Inflation Protected Investment Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirco Mahlstedt

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is presented, which is based on traditional asset classes and Markov-switching models. Different stock market, as well as inflation regimes are identified, and within those regimes, the inflation hedging potential of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and gold are investigated. Within each regime, we determine optimal investment portfolios driven by the investment idea of protection from losses due to changing inflation if inflation is rising or high, but decoupling the performance from inflation if inflation is low. The results clearly indicate that these asset classes behave differently in different stock market and inflation regimes. Whereas in the long-run, we agree with the general opinion in the literature that stocks and bonds are a suitable hedge against inflation, we observe for short time horizons that the hedging potential of each asset class, especially of real estate and commodities, depend strongly on the state of the current market environment. Thus, our approach provides a possible explanation for different statements in the literature regarding the inflation hedging properties of these asset classes. A dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is developed, which combines inflation protection and upside potential. This strategy outperforms standard buy-and-hold strategies, as well as the well-known 1 N -portfolio.

  8. Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    LIU Jinquan; ZHENG Tingguo; SUI Jianli

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China¡¯s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hy...

  9. The Effect of Money Supply on the Inflation the Period between 1980-2013 in Turkey Economy

    OpenAIRE

    İsmail Şahin; Muhammet Karanfil

    2015-01-01

    To provide the economic stability, in the fight against the inflation problem, various monetary and fiscal policies have been applied in different periods in Turkey. In spite of these policies, inflation has not been taken to the expected level in the certain period. However, in recent years the decline in the inflation has demonstrated that the policies which were implemented were effective. At the end of these policies, the object is achieved partly which, was targeted in the inflation. The...

  10. Declining agricultural production in rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions: policy tradeoffs and sustainability indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, André Q.; Arabi, Mazdak; Wostoupal, Benjamin C.; Goemans, Christopher G.; Zhang, Yao; Paustian, Keith

    2017-08-01

    In rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions, increasing amounts of historically irrigated cropland lies permanently fallowed due to water court policies as agricultural water rights are voluntarily being sold to growing cities. This study develops an integrative framework for assessing the effects of population growth and land use change on agricultural production and evaluating viability of alternative management strategies, including alternative agricultural transfer methods, regional water ownership restrictions, and urban conservation. A partial equilibrium model of a spatially-diverse regional water rights market is built in application of the framework to an exemplary basin. The model represents agricultural producers as profit-maximizing suppliers and municipalities as cost-minimizing consumers of water rights. Results indicate that selling an agricultural water right today is worth up to two times more than 40 years of continued production. All alternative policies that sustain agricultural cropland and crop production decrease total agricultural profitability by diminishing water rights sales revenue, but in doing so, they also decrease municipal water acquisition costs. Defining good indicators and incorporating adequate spatial and temporal detail are critical to properly analyzing policy impacts. To best improve agricultural profit from production and sale of crops, short-term solutions include alternative agricultural transfer methods while long-term solutions incorporate urban conservation.

  11. Attractors, universality, and inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, Sean; Dutta, Bhaskar; Sinha, Kuver

    2012-11-01

    Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to a power law, 1/Ne3. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.

  12. Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šoškić Dejan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.

  13. Fear of Floating and Inflation Targeting in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasif Abiyev

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to test empirical validity of Fear of Floating hypothesis for Turkey after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We start applying methodologies developed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002 and Ball and Reyes (2004, 2008 to check the probabilities of changes in exchange rate and monetary policy instruments before and after inflation targeting regime. We then use a VAR model to estimate exchange rate pass-through and response of monetary policy instruments to exchange rate shocks before and after inflation targeting regime. VAR model helps to understand the impacts of switch in monetary policy regime on exchange rate pass-through and foreign exchange market interventions. The paper concludes that after the adoption of inflation targeting regime, the exchange rate pass-through still matters for the attainment of inflation targets and the monetary policy do not exhibit a fear of floating practices.

  14. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış Soybilgen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.

  15. Towards a formal link between inflation perceptions and inflation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reports the finding of a survey of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa undertaken in 2014. This survey posed questions on perceptions of past inflation (historic inflation) and expectations of future inflation to the same respondents and determined linkages between historic views and ...

  16. Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur, E-mail: stefan.antusch@unibas.ch, E-mail: david.nolde@unibas.ch, E-mail: mansoor-ur.rehman@unibas.ch [Department of Physics, University of Basel, Klingelbergstr. 82, CH-4056 Basel (Switzerland)

    2012-08-01

    We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.

  17. Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur

    2012-08-01

    We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ``tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.

  18. Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur

    2012-01-01

    We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries

  19. The Flavour of Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavala, I.

    2008-01-01

    A new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry is proposed. The Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, the flavons, are natural inflaton candidates or waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with several interesting cosmological implications.

  20. Interest Rates and Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Coopersmith, Michael; Gambardella, Pascal J.

    2016-01-01

    This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to eliminate the inflation rate and obtain a delay differential equation. We provide computer simulated solutions for this equation over regimes of interest. This paper could be of ...

  1. CRA Grade Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth H. Thomas

    2000-01-01

    Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 (CRA) ratings and performance evaluations are the only bank and thrift exam findings disclosed by financial institution regulators. Inflation of CRA ratings has been alleged by community activists for two decades, but there has been no quantification or empirical investigation of grade inflation. Using a unique grade inflation methodology on actual ratings and evaluation data for 1,407 small banks and thrifts under the revised CRA regulations, this paper con...

  2. Inflation and quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.

    1991-01-01

    In this article a review of the present status of inflationary cosmology is given. We start with a discussion of the simplest version of the chaotic inflation scenario. Then we discuss some recent develoments in the inflationary cosmology, including the theory of a self-reproducing inflationary universe (eternal chaotic inflation). We do it with the help of stochastic approach to inflation. The results obtained within this approach are compared with the results obtained in the context of Euclidean quantum cosmology. (WL)

  3. Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Juan Carlos Bencomo; Hugo J. Montesinos; Hugo M. Montesinos; Jose Roberto Rondo

    2011-01-01

    Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Late...

  4. The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh Kumar Sharma

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI has a low degree of credibility within the survey respondents. The study then formulates a model to identify individual elements of the backward-looking expectations in the data. The results suggest that the respondents’ short term expectations for WPI inflation are purely naïve type of expectations, only influenced by respondents earlier period expectations. In the case of CPIIW inflation, the results however suggest that the short-term expectations are not purely naïve type, but also contain adaptive as well as a static forms of expectations. This means that respondents consider their previous forecast errors about CPIIW inflation and draw recent price developments in the CPIIW while forming their overall short-term inflation expectations. This finding provides some formal evidence that the CPI based inflation measure is better suited, than WPI inflation, as a nominal anchor in the RBI’s recent transition to inflation targeting regime. JEL classification: D84, E31, E52, E37, Keywords: Inflation, Inflation expectations, Survey data, Price index, Monetary policy, Forecasting

  5. Nonminimally coupled hybrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koh, Seoktae; Minamitsuji, Masato

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the hybrid inflation model where the inflaton field is nonminimally coupled to gravity. In the Jordan frame, the potential contains φ 4 term as well as terms in the original hybrid inflation model. In our model, inflation can be classified into the type (I) and the type (II). In the type (I), inflation is terminated by the tachyonic instability of the waterfall field, while in the type (II) by the violation of slow-roll conditions. In our model, the reheating takes place only at the true minimum and even in the case (II) finally the tachyonic instability occurs after the termination of inflation. For a negative nonminimal coupling, inflation takes place in the vacuum-dominated region, in the large field region, or near the local minimum/maximum. Inflation in the vacuum-dominated region becomes either the type (I) or (II), resulting in a blue or red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, respectively. Inflation around the local maximum can be either the type (I) or the type (II), which results in the red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, while around the local minimum it must be the type (I), which results in the blue spectrum. In the large field region, to terminate inflation, potential in the Einstein frame must be positively tilted, always resulting in the red spectrum. We then numerically solve the equations of motion to investigate the whole dynamics of inflaton and confirm that the spectrum of curvature perturbations changes from red to blue ones as scales become smaller.

  6. Cosmic strings and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vishniac, E.T.

    1987-01-01

    We examine the compatibility of inflation with the cosmic string theory for galaxy formation. There is a general conflict between having sufficient string tension to effect galaxy formation, and reheating after inflation to a high enough temperature that strings may form in a thermal phase transition. To escape this conflict, we propose a class of models where the inflation is coupled to the string-producing field. The strings are formed late in inflation as the inflaton rolls towards its zero-temperature value. A large subset of these models have a novel large-scale distribution of galaxies that is fractal, displays biasing without dynamics or feedback mechanisms, and contains voids. (orig.)

  7. Quantum fluctuations and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

    1986-05-01

    We study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. We consider two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) and find that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. 8 refs., 2 figs

  8. Quantum fluctuations and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    The authors study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. Two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) are considered and it is found that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. (author)

  9. Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India

    OpenAIRE

    Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni

    2012-01-01

    This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility along (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major det...

  10. The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nazima Ellahi

    2017-01-01

    Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan...

  11. Optimal pricing and lot-sizing policies for an economic production quantity model with non-instantaneous deteriorating items, permissible delay in payments, customer returns, and inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghoreishi, Maryam; Mirzazadeh, Abolfazl; Nakhai Kamalabadi, Isa

    2014-01-01

    . The effects of time value of money are studied using the Discounted Cash Flow approach. The main objective is to determine the optimal selling price, the optimal length of the production period, and the optimal length of inventory cycle simultaneously such that the present value of total profit is maximized....... An efficient algorithm is presented to find the optimal solution of the developed model. Finally, a numerical example is extracted to solve the presented inventory model using our proposed algorithm, and the effects of the customer returns, inflation, and delay in payments are also discussed....

  12. l'impatto della politica fiscale e dell'inflazione sul risparmio nazionale: il caso italiano.(The impact of fiscal policy and inflation on national saving: the Italian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. MODIGLIANI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Oltre al reddito ci sono altri due influenze principali sul risparmio nazionale : la politica fiscale e l'inflazione . Gli autori costruiscono un modello dell'economia italiana per analizzare l'impatto di queste due variabili correlate. Si è concluso che i disavanzi pubblici del passato hanno prodotto una riduzione proporzionale del risparmio nazionale . A partire dai primi anni 1960 risparmi nazionali sono diminuiti di quasi 9 punti percentuali , di cui 3,6 punti percentuali possono essere contabilizzati da un aumento del 4 per cento nel deficit del governo . I risultati per quanto riguarda l'impatto dell'inflazione non sono definiti , e non è possibile stabilirli .Apart from income there are two other main influences on national savings: fiscal policy and inflation. The authors construct a model of the Italian economy to analyse the impact of these two related variables. It is concluded that past government deficits have produced a proportional reduction in national saving. Since the early 1960s national savings have declined by nearly 9 percentage points, of which 3.6 percentage points can be accounted for by a 4 per cent increase in the government's deficit. The results regarding the impact of inflation are not definite, and no conclusion is drawn.JEL: E21, E31, E62,

  13. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  14. Inflation experiences of retirees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, Adriaan; Alessie, Robertus; Gardner, Jonathan; Ali, Ashik Anwar

    The inflation experience of people depends on their expenditure patterns and price developments. This paper identifies groups of retirees that have experienced relatively high price inflation over the last few decades and could thus be considered most vulnerable when income decreases, as has been

  15. Air-Inflated Fabric Structures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cavallaro, Paul V; Sadegh, Ali M

    2006-01-01

    .... Examples include air ships, weather balloons, inflatable antennas and radomes, temporary shelters, pneumatic muscles and actuators, inflatable boats, temporary bridging, and energy absorbers such as automotive air bags...

  16. Extended inflation with nonminimally coupled inflation field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchapakesan, N.; Sethi, S.K.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, an extended inflation model, in which the inflation field is nonminimally coupled to the gravity, is discussed. It is shown that the nucleation rate of bubbles, during a phase transition in the inflaton field, can increase as the transition proceeds for a wide range of parameters of the inflaton potential. The bounce action for three possible cases - the strong gravity regime, the thick-walled Coleman-DeLuccia bubbles and the thin-walled bubbles - is evaluated. The resulting bubble distribution for all the cases is shown to be in conformity with cosmological constraints for ω < 500

  17. Nelene Ehlers and Rudi Steinbach - WP/07/06- The formation of inflation expectations in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Nelene Ehlers; Rudi Steinbach

    2007-01-01

    Abstract- A key factor in the inflation-targeting regime is the psychological process by which individuals and firms form their expectations of future inflation. From a monetary policy perspective, it is important to analyse this process, since under full rationality, only unexpected changes in inflation will affect real variables. In this paper, data from both the Bureau for Economic Research’s Inflation Expectations Survey and the Reuters Inflation Expectations Survey are evaluated, over di...

  18. Inflated Grades, Enrollments & Budgets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Stone

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available Reports of the past 13 years that call attention to deficient academic standards in American higher education are enumerated. Particular attention is given the Wingspread Group's recent An American Imperative: Higher Expectations for Higher Education. Low academic standards, grade inflation, and budgetary incentives for increased enrollment are analyzed and a call is made for research at the state level. Reported trends in achievement and GPAs are extrapolated to Tennessee and combined with local data to support the inference that 15% of the state's present day college graduates would not have earned a diploma by mid 1960s standards. A conspicuous lack of interest by public oversight bodies is noted despite a growing public awareness of low academic expectations and lenient grading and an implicit budgetary impact of over $100 million. Various academic policies and the dynamics of bureaucratic control are discussed in relationship to the maintenance of academic standards. The disincentives for challenging course requirements and responsible grading are examined, and the growing movement to address academic quality issues through better training and supervision of faculty are critiqued. Recommendations that would encourage renewed academic integrity and make learning outcomes visible to students, parents, employers, and the taxpaying public are offered and briefly discussed.

  19. The inflation sector of extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolb, E.W.

    1990-11-01

    In extended inflation the inflationary era is brought to a close by the process of percolation of true vacuum bubbles produced in a first-order phase transition. In this paper I discuss several effects that might obtain if the Universe undergoes an inflationary first-order phase transition. 17 refs

  20. Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu

    2016-01-01

    Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. The data are aggregated to construct an inflation expectations index. Results based on the index suggest that expectations are not consistent with the rationality assumption but are, still, more comp...

  1. Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, ...

  2. Can Social Inclusion Policies Reduce Health Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa?—A Rapid Policy Appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palha de Sousa, César A.D; Molomo, Boitumelo G

    2009-01-01

    The global resurgence of interest in the social determinants of health provides an opportunity for determined action on unacceptable and unjust health inequalities that exist within and between countries. This paper reviews three categories of social inclusion policies: cash-transfers; free social services; and specific institutional arrangements for programme integration in six selected countries—Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The policies were appraised as part of the Social Exclusion Knowledge Network (SEKN) set up under the auspices of the World Health Organization's Commission on Social Determinants of Health. The paper highlights the development landscape in sub-Saharan Africa and presents available indicators of the scale of inequity in the six countries. A summary of the policies appraised is presented, including whether or what the impact of these policies has been on health inequalities. Cross-cutting benefits include poverty alleviation, notably among vulnerable children and youths, improved economic opportunities for disadvantaged households, reduction in access barriers to social services, and improved nutrition intake. The impact of these benefits, and hence the policies, on health status can only be inferred. Among the policies reviewed, weaknesses or constraints were in design and implementation. The policy design weaknesses include targeting criteria, their enforcement and latent costs, inadequate parti-cipation of the community and failure to take the cultural context into account. A major weakness of most policies was the lack of a monitoring and evaluation system, with clear indicators that incorporate system responsiveness. The policy implementation weaknesses include uneven regional implementation with rural areas worst affected; inadequate or poor administrative and implementation capacity; insufficient resources; problems of fraud and corruption; and lack of involvement of civil servants, exacerbating

  3. Can social inclusion policies reduce health inequalities in sub-Saharan Africa?--A rapid policy appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rispel, Laetitia C; de Sousa, César A D Palha; Molomo, Boitumelo G

    2009-08-01

    The global resurgence of interest in the social determinants of health provides an opportunity for determined action on unacceptable and unjust health inequalities that exist within and between countries. This paper reviews three categories of social inclusion policies: cash-transfers; free social services; and specific institutional arrangements for programme integration in six selected countries--Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The policies were appraised as part of the Social Exclusion Knowledge Network (SEKN) set up under the auspices of the World Health Organization's Commission on Social Determinants of Health. The paper highlights the development landscape in sub-Saharan Africa and presents available indicators of the scale of inequity in the six countries. A summary of the policies appraised is presented, including whether or what the impact of these policies has been on health inequalities. Cross-cutting benefits include poverty alleviation, notably among vulnerable children and youths, improved economic opportunities for disadvantaged households, reduction in access barriers to social services, and improved nutrition intake. The impact of these benefits, and hence the policies, on health status can only be inferred. Among the policies reviewed, weaknesses or constraints were in design and implementation. The policy design weaknesses include targeting criteria, their enforcement and latent costs, inadequate participation of the community and failure to take the cultural context into account. A major weakness of most policies was the lack of a monitoring and evaluation system, with clear indicators that incorporate system responsiveness. The policy implementation weaknesses include uneven regional implementation with rural areas worst affected; inadequate or poor administrative and implementation capacity; insufficient resources; problems of fraud and corruption; and lack of involvement of civil servants, exacerbating

  4. Preheating in new inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desroche, Mariel; Felder, Gary N.; Kratochvil, Jan M.; Linde, Andrei

    2005-01-01

    During the last ten years a detailed investigation of preheating was performed for chaotic inflation and for hybrid inflation. However, nonperturbative effects during reheating in the new inflation scenario remained practically unexplored. We investigate preheating in new inflation, using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. We find that the decay of the homogeneous component of the inflaton field and the resulting process of spontaneous symmetry breaking in the simplest models of new inflation usually occurs almost instantly: for the new inflation on the GUT scale it takes only about 5 oscillations of the field distribution. The decay of the homogeneous inflaton field is so efficient because of a combined effect of tachyonic preheating and parametric resonance. At that stage, the homogeneous oscillating inflaton field decays into a collection of waves of the inflaton field, with a typical wavelength of the order of the inverse inflaton mass. This stage usually is followed by a long stage of decay of the inflaton field into other particles, which can be described by the perturbative approach to reheating after inflation. The resulting reheating temperature typically is rather low

  5. Do axions need inflation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, R.L.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge

    1989-01-01

    Without inflation the energy density of relic axions in a Robertson-Walker universe arises not from coherent oscillations of a zero-momentum mode but from radiative decay of axion strings. An estimate of the upper bound on the PQ scale coming from these axions is in conflict with the lower bound from SN1987a. We present analytical and numerical evidence supporting this estimate. If true, then the axion needs inflation. With inflation the axion is safe, but the motivation for axion search experiments is weakened. (orig.)

  6. Euro area Inflation as a Predictor of National Inflation Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba

    2013-01-01

    The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in th...

  7. Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

    2010-01-01

    We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kaehler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third 'driving' field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the 'standard' hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (W inf = 0) during inflation. While the symmetries of the Kaehler potential ensure a flat inflaton potential at tree-level, quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.

  8. Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

    We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kähler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third "driving" field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the "standard" hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (Winf = 0) during inflation. Quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.

  9. Interest Rates and Inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Coopersmith, Michael

    2011-01-01

    A relation between interest rates and inflation is presented using a two component economic model and a simple general principle. Preliminary results indicate a remarkable similarity to classical economic theories, in particular that of Wicksell.

  10. No-Scale Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-01-01

    Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on $R + R^2$ gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: $n_s \\sim 0.96$, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r < 0.1$, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.

  11. No-scale inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, John; Garcia, Marcos A. G.; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-05-01

    Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on R+{R}2 gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: {n}s∼ 0.96, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r\\lt 0.1, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.

  12. Unitarizing Higgs Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Giudice, Gian F

    2011-01-01

    We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.

  13. Unitarizing Higgs inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giudice, Gian F.; Lee, Hyun Min

    2011-01-01

    We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.

  14. Inflation with superstrings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, P.; Chicago Univ., IL

    1986-01-01

    Cosmological solutions with three exponentially expanding space dimensions in the N=1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills supergravity system are found under the assumption of gluino and ''subgravitino'' condensation. The potential has a long flat region providing sufficient inflation. (orig.)

  15. Sovereign default and the stability of inflation targeting regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schabert, A.; van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    2011-01-01

    We analyse the impact of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy on macroeconomic stability. We find that in the presence of sovereign default beliefs a monetary policy, which aims to stabilize inflation through an active interest rate policy, will destabilize the economy if the feedback

  16. Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brax, P. [CEA-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette (France). CEA/DSM/SPhT, Unite de Recherche Associee au CNRS, Service de Physique Theorique; Bruck, C. van de [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Applied Mathematics; Davis, A.C.; Davis, S.C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences; Jeannerot, R. [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden (Netherlands); Postma, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)]|[Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-05-15

    We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)

  17. Inflation persistence and flexible prices

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Dittmar; William T. Gavin; Finn E. Kydland

    2004-01-01

    If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from ...

  18. Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brax, P.; Postma, M.

    2008-05-01

    We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)

  19. Warm inflation in the stochastic inflation formalism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Leandro A. da; Ramos, Rudnei O.

    2011-01-01

    Full text: The basic assumption of stochastic inflation is the splitting, through the definition of a appropriate window function, of the quantum inflaton field in a long wavelength part (modes outside of the de Sitter horizon) and in a short wavelength (modes inside the de Sitter horizon) part. The inflationary mechanism then continuously shifts more and more modes of the bath field into the system stretching their physical wavelengths beyond the de Sitter horizon size, what generates an effective system-bath interaction. Therefore, the system field develops a stochastic dynamics driven by the bath field, that plays the role of noise source. The resulting equation of motion (EoM) is a Langevin-like equation. Applying this formalism to Warm Inflation scenario (where, alternatively to the cold inflation, we assume that the inflaton evolves in a thermal bath and through a dissipative process continuously generates radiation, thus avoiding the necessity of a reheating mechanism), we contrast the exact numerical solution of thermal power spectrum and two approximations currently used in the literature, and compare this to the quantum power spectrum at horizon crossing. Finally, we consider a more realistic model based on microscopic derivations to estimate the effects of non-Markovianity on the inflaton dynamics and on the thermal power spectrum. (author)

  20. Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Valentim Machado Vicente

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months, break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months, we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.

  1. New type of hill-top inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barvinsky, A.O.; Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute, Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Kamenshchik, A.Yu., E-mail: barvin@td.lpi.ru, E-mail: Alexander.Kamenshchik@bo.infn.it, E-mail: nesterov@td.lpi.ru [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN, via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy)

    2016-01-01

    We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ε and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.

  2. New type of hill-top inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barvinsky, A.O. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics, Tomsk State University,Lenin Ave. 36, Tomsk 634050 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Pacific Institue for Theoretical Physics,University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Kamenshchik, A.Yu. [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); L.D. Landau Institute for Theoretical Physcis,Kosygin str. 2, 119334 Moscow (Russian Federation); Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

    2016-01-20

    We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ϵ and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.

  3. SECOND ROUND EFFECTS AND PASS-THROUGH OF FOOD PRICES TO INFLATION IN KENYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roseline Nyakerario Misati

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In the recent past, the Kenyan economy experienced persistent inflationary pressures, partly attributed to food price spikes. However, the quantitative role of food prices in inflation is not well understood or formally empirically analyzed in Kenya yet food occupies a weight of 36 percent in the consumer price index and contributes a monthly average of over 40 percent to overall inflation. Based on monthly data covering the period 1997-2012, this paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the relationship between food prices and inflation. The study used gap models and Phillips curve approaches to estimate the passthrough effects of food prices to both overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation. Based on gap models, the results confirm presence of second round effects from food prices to inflation while estimations of the Phillips curve suggest a domestic food price pass-through of 0.49 to overall inflation and 0.38 to non-food non-fuel inflation. The world food prices pass-through to overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation are estimated at 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. Thus this paper recommends usage of headline inflation to estimate trend inflation, enhanced communication to mitigate second round effects and that while monetary policy is very critical in anchoring inflationary expectations, there is mutual gain from a supportive fiscal policy in addressing supply side shocks.

  4. Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodarzi, Parviz; Sadjadi, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

  5. Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodarzi, Parviz [University of Ayatollah Ozma Borujerdi, Department of Science, Boroujerd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sadjadi, H.M. [University of Tehran, Department of Physics, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

  6. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won-Am Park

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

  7. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchmüller, W. [DESY, Notkestrasse 85, 22607 Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); Schmitz, K., E-mail: wilfried.buchmueller@desy.de, E-mail: valerie.domcke@sissa.it, E-mail: kai.schmitz@ipmu.jp [Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa (Japan)

    2014-11-01

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

  8. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buchmueller, W. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Triest (Italy); Schmitz, K. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), Kashiwa (Japan)

    2014-08-15

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

  9. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmueller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

    2014-08-01

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

  10. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

    2014-01-01

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'

  11. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

    2014-11-01

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of `chaotic inflation'.

  12. Technical Note: Does Core Inflation Help Forecast Total Inflation? Evidence from Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    John Thornton

    1998-01-01

    In Colombia core and total inflation are both (1) series, and core inflation is cointegrated with total inflation. Granger causality tests using error correction methodology indicate that divergence of total inflation from core inflation is quickly revers

  13. Quasi-open inflation

    CERN Document Server

    García-Bellido, J; Montes, X; Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

    1998-01-01

    We show that a large class of two-field models of single-bubble open inflation do not lead to infinite open universes, as it was previously thought, but to an ensemble of very large but finite inflating `islands'. The reason is that the quantum tunneling responsible for the nucleation of the bubble does not occur simultaneously along both field directions and equal-time hypersurfaces in the open universe are not synchronized with equal-density or fixed-field hypersurfaces. The most probable tunneling trajectory corresponds to a zero value of the inflaton field; large values, necessary for the second period of inflation inside the bubble, only arise as localized fluctuations. The interior of each nucleated bubble will contain an infinite number of such inflating regions of comoving size of order $\\gamma^{-1}$, where $\\gamma$ depends on the parameters of the model. Each one of these islands will be a quasi-open universe. Since the volume of the hyperboloid is infinite, inflating islands with all possible values...

  14. Mutated hilltop inflation revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Barun Kumar

    2018-05-01

    In this work we re-investigate pros and cons of mutated hilltop inflation. Applying Hamilton-Jacobi formalism we solve inflationary dynamics and find that inflation goes on along the {W}_{-1} branch of the Lambert function. Depending on the model parameter mutated hilltop model renders two types of inflationary solutions: one corresponds to small inflaton excursion during observable inflation and the other describes large field inflation. The inflationary observables from curvature perturbation are in tune with the current data for a wide range of the model parameter. The small field branch predicts negligible amount of tensor to scalar ratio r˜ O(10^{-4}), while the large field sector is capable of generating high amplitude for tensor perturbations, r˜ O(10^{-1}). Also, the spectral index is almost independent of the model parameter along with a very small negative amount of scalar running. Finally we find that the mutated hilltop inflation closely resembles the α -attractor class of inflationary models in the limit of α φ ≫ 1.

  15. TESTING NONLINEAR INFLATION CONVERGENCE FOR THE CENTRAL AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY COMMUNITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel Anoruo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses nonlinear unit root testing procedures to examine the issue of inflation convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC member states including Cameron, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. The results from nonlinear STAR unit root tests suggest that inflation differentials for the sample countries are nonlinear and mean reverting processes. These results provide evidence of inflation convergence among countries within CEMAC. The finding of inflation convergence indicates the feasibility of a common monetary policy and/or inflation targeting regime within CEMAC.

  16. Is Inflation in India an Attractor of Inflation in Nepal?

    OpenAIRE

    Edimon Ginting

    2007-01-01

    The paper attempts to answer some important questions around the inflationary process in Nepal, particularly the transmission of inflation from India. Because the Nepali currency is pegged to the Indian rupee and the two countries share an open border, price developments in Nepal would be expected to mirror to those in India. The results show that inflation in India and inflation in Nepal tend to converge in the long run. Our estimates indicate that the passthrough of inflation from India to ...

  17. Sneutrino Hybrid Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan

    2006-01-01

    We review the scenario of sneutrino hybrid inflation, where one of the singlet sneutrinos, the superpartners of the right-handed neutrinos, plays the role of the inflaton. In a minimal model of sneutrino hybrid inflation, the spectral index is given by ns ≅ 1 + 2γ. With γ = 0.025 ± 0.01 constrained by WMAP, a running spectral index vertical bar dns/dlnk vertical bar << vertical barγvertical bar and a tensor-to-scalar ratio r << γ2 are predicted. Small neutrino masses arise from the seesaw mechanism, with heavy masses for the singlet (s)neutrinos generated by the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field after inflation. The baryon asymmetry of the universe can be explained by non-thermal leptogenesis via sneutrino inflaton decay, with low reheat temperature TRH ≅ 106 GeV

  18. Flipped GUT inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN, Route de Meyrin 385, 1217 Meyrin (Switzerland); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2015-03-23

    We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

  19. Flipped GUT inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King' s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih, E-mail: john.ellis@cern.ch, E-mail: tomas.gonzalo.11@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: j.harz@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: wei-chih.huang@ucl.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2015-03-01

    We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

  20. Inflatable Dark Matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davoudiasl, Hooman; Hooper, Dan; McDermott, Samuel D

    2016-01-22

    We describe a general scenario, dubbed "inflatable dark matter," in which the density of dark matter particles can be reduced through a short period of late-time inflation in the early Universe. The overproduction of dark matter that is predicted within many, otherwise, well-motivated models of new physics can be elegantly remedied within this context. Thermal relics that would, otherwise, be disfavored can easily be accommodated within this class of scenarios, including dark matter candidates that are very heavy or very light. Furthermore, the nonthermal abundance of grand unified theory or Planck scale axions can be brought to acceptable levels without invoking anthropic tuning of initial conditions. A period of late-time inflation could have occurred over a wide range of scales from ∼MeV to the weak scale or above, and could have been triggered by physics within a hidden sector, with small but not necessarily negligible couplings to the standard model.

  1. Supersymmetry and Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ferrara, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    Theories with elementary scalar degrees of freedom seem nowadays required for simple descriptions of the Standard Model and of the Early Universe. It is then natural to embed theories of inflation in supergravity, also in view of their possible ultraviolet completion in String Theory. After some general remarks on inflation in supergravity, we describe examples of minimal inflaton dynamics which are compatible with recent observations, including higher-curvature ones inspired by the Starobinsky model. We also discuss different scenarios for supersymmetry breaking during and after inflation, which include a revived role for non-linear realizations. In this spirit, we conclude with a discussion of the link, in four dimensions, between "brane supersymmetry breaking" and the super--Higgs effect in supergravity.

  2. Supersymmetric Majoron inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Stephen F.; Ludl, Patrick Otto [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton,Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

    2017-03-31

    We propose supersymmetric Majoron inflation in which the Majoron field Φ responsible for generating right-handed neutrino masses may also be suitable for giving low scale “hilltop” inflation, with a discrete lepton number ℤ{sub N} spontaneously broken at the end of inflation, while avoiding the domain wall problem. In the framework of non-minimal supergravity, we show that a successful spectral index can result with small running together with small tensor modes. We show that a range of heaviest right-handed neutrino masses can be generated, m{sub N}∼10{sup 1}−10{sup 16} GeV, consistent with the constraints from reheating and domain walls.

  3. Chain inflation revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chialva, Diego; Danielsson, Ulf H

    2008-01-01

    This paper represents an in-depth treatment of the chain inflation scenario. We fully determine the evolution of the universe in the model, the conditions necessary in order to have a successful inflationary period, and the matching with the observational results regarding the cosmological perturbations. We study in great detail, and in general, the dynamics of the background, as well as the mechanism of generation of the perturbations. We also find an explicit formula for the spectrum of adiabatic perturbations. Our results prove that chain inflation is a viable model for solving the horizon, entropy and flatness problems of standard cosmology and for generating the right amount of adiabatic cosmological perturbations. The results are radically different from those found in previous works on the subject. Finally, we argue that there is a natural way to embed chain inflation into flux compactified string theory. We discuss the details of the implementation and how to fit observations

  4. Flipped GUT Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih

    2015-01-01

    We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)$\\times$U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, $A_s$, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, $n_s$, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, $r$. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

  5. Transdimensional physics and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio

    2002-01-01

    Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR) 2 , where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries

  6. Transdimensional physics and inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Giudice, Gian Francesco; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio; Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio

    2002-01-01

    Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR)^2, where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries.

  7. Is wartime mobilisation a suitable policy model for rapid national climate mitigation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delina, Laurence L.; Diesendorf, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Climate science suggests that, to have a high probability of limiting global warming to an average temperature increase of 2 °C, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. However, the current trend is heading towards at least 4 °C by 2100 and little effective action is being taken. This paper commences the process of developing contingency plans for a scenario in which a sudden major global climate impact galvanises governments to implement emergency climate mitigation targets and programs. Climate activists assert that rapid mitigation is feasible, invoking the scale and scope of wartime mobilisation strategies. This paper draws upon historical accounts of social, technological and economic restructurings in several countries during World War 2 in order to investigate potential applications of wartime experience to radical, rigorous and rapid climate mitigation strategies. We focus on the energy sector, the biggest single contributor to global climate change, in developed and rapidly developing countries. We find that, while wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour, it also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes. - Highlights: • The paper explores the strengths and weaknesses of using wartime experience as a model for rapid climate mitigation. • Wartime experience suggests some potential strategies for rapid climate mitigation in the areas of finance and labour. • Wartime experience also has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes

  8. Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossain Wali

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.

  9. Flipped GUT inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Ellis, John; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih

    2015-01-01

    We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model paramet...

  10. Minimal Composite Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Channuie, Phongpichit; Jark Joergensen, Jakob; Sannino, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity, and that the u......We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity...

  11. Symmetry and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chimento, Luis P.

    2002-01-01

    We find the group of symmetry transformations under which the Einstein equations for the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe are form invariant. They relate the energy density and the pressure of the fluid to the expansion rate. We show that inflation can be obtained from nonaccelerated scenarios by a symmetry transformation. We derive the transformation rule for the spectrum and spectral index of the curvature perturbations. Finally, the group is extended to investigate inflation in the anisotropic Bianchi type-I spacetime and the brane-world cosmology

  12. Supersymmetric inflation: Recent progress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ovrut, B.A.; Steinhardt, P.J.

    1986-01-01

    The new inflationary universe scenario is, in principle, a simple and powerful approach to resolving a large number of fundamental cosmological problems. However, in order for the scenario to be considered a complete theory, one critical question remains to be answered: What is the physics responsible for the phase transition that triggers the exponential expansion (inflation) of the universe? One possibility that the authors and several other groups have been pursuing is that the physics responsible for the phase transition involves (local) supersymmetry. The goal of this paper is to review the present status of ''Supersymmetric Inflation'', particularly emphasizing some very exciting results that they recently obtained

  13. Inflation of a Polymeric Menbrane

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Susanne B.; Larsen, Johannes R.; Hassager, Ole

    1998-01-01

    We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane.......We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane....

  14. Topological defects in extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL; Liddle, A.R.

    1990-04-01

    We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings. 18 refs

  15. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  16. Topological defects in extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Liddle, A.R.

    1990-01-01

    We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended-inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of the bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings

  17. Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report

    OpenAIRE

    Kota Watanabe; Tsutomu Watanabe

    2014-01-01

    We construct a Törnqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scanner data spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the CPI inflation rate, although the difference between the two varies over time. Second, the difference between the two measures is greatest from 1992 to 1994, when, following the burst of bubble economy in 1991, the POS inflation rate drops rapidly and turns negati...

  18. Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Rojas-Suárez

    1992-01-01

    This paper shows that there is a long-run relationship between the expected rate of depreciation in the black-market-exchange rate and the ratio of domestic to foreign money in Peru; that is, the hypothesis of currency substitution can explain the behavior of real holdings of money in Peru. The paper also shows that, while the importance of currency substitution as a transmission mechanism through which domestic policies affected the dynamics of inflation was relatively small during a period ...

  19. Initial conditions for chaotic inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenberger, R.; Kung, J.; Feldman, H.

    1991-01-01

    In contrast to many other inflationary Universe models, chaotic inflation does not depend on fine tuning initial conditions. Within the context of linear perturbation theory, it is shown that chaotic inflation is stable towards both metric and matter perturbations. Neglecting gravitational perturbations, it is shown that chaotic inflation is an attractor in initial condition space. (orig.)

  20. Gauge fields and inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maleknejad, A.; Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.; Soda, J.

    2013-07-01

    The isotropy and homogeneity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favors “scalar driven” early Universe inflationary models. However, gauge fields and other non-scalar fields are far more common at all energy scales, in particular at high energies seemingly relevant to inflation models. Hence, in this review we consider the role and consequences, theoretical and observational, that gauge fields can have during the inflationary era. Gauge fields may be turned on in the background during inflation, or may become relevant at the level of cosmic perturbations. There have been two main classes of models with gauge fields in the background, models which show violation of the cosmic no-hair theorem and those which lead to isotropic FLRW cosmology, respecting the cosmic no-hair theorem. Models in which gauge fields are only turned on at the cosmic perturbation level, may source primordial magnetic fields. We also review specific observational features of these models on the CMB and/or the primordial cosmic magnetic fields. Our discussions will be mainly focused on the inflation period, with only a brief discussion on the post inflationary (p)reheating era. Large field models: The initial value of the inflaton field is large, generically super-Planckian, and it rolls slowly down toward the potential minimum at smaller φ values. For instance, chaotic inflation is one of the representative models of this class. The typical potential of large-field models has a monomial form as V(φ)=V0φn. A simple analysis using the dynamical equations reveals that for number of e-folds Ne larger than 60, we require super-Planckian initial field values,5φ0>3M. For these models typically ɛ˜η˜Ne-1. Small field models: Inflaton field is initially small and slowly evolves toward the potential minimum at larger φ values. The small field models are characterized by the following potential V(φ)=V0(1-(), which corresponds to a Taylor expansion about the origin, but more realistic

  1. Before primordial inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanopoulos, D. V.; Srednicki, M.

    1983-12-01

    We show that, before the onset of primordial inflation, there is plenty of time for fields with very flat potentials and very weak couplings (such as the local supersymmetry breaking field and the axion field) to roll to the global minima of their potentials. Thus there is no energy stored in these fields today and hence no constraint (such as faxion USA.

  2. Inflation from higher dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafi, Q.

    1987-01-01

    We argue that an inflationary phase in the very early universe is related to the transition from a higher dimensional to a four-dimensional universe. We present details of a previously considered model which gives sufficient inflation without fine tuning of parameters. (orig.)

  3. Eternal chaotic inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.D.

    1986-05-01

    It is shown that the universe evolution in the chaotic inflation scenario has no end and may have no beginning. According to this scenario, the universe consists of exponentially large number of different mini-universes inside which all possible metastable vacuum states and all possible types of compactification are realized. (author)

  4. Inflation from extra dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, S.M.

    1984-01-01

    Recently there has been growing interest (1) in the possibility that the universe could have more than four dimensions. Aside from any light this may shed on problems in particle physics, if true it would undoubtedly have important implications for early cosmology. A rather speculative but very appealing possibility suggested by D. Sahdev and by E. Alvarez and B. Gavela is that the gravitational collapse of extra spatial dimensions could drive an inflation of ordinary space. This kind of inflationary cosmology would be quite different from the inflationary cosmologies now so intensively studied which are supposed to result from changes in vacuum energy during phase transitions in the early universe. In our work we examine the physics of these Kaluza-Klein inflationary cosmologies and come to three main conclusions. (1) It is desirable to have many extra dimensions, many being of order forty or fifty. (2) For models which give a realistically large inflation almost all of this inflation occurs in a period when quantum gravity is certainly important. This means that Einstein's equations cannot be used to calculate the details of this inflationary period. (3) Under plausible assumptions one may argue from the second law of thermodynamics that given appropriate initial conditions a large inflation will occur even when details of the inflationary phase cannot be calculated classically

  5. Kaluza-Klein inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Hideki.

    1984-05-01

    Dynamical evolution of the Kaluza-Klein space-time is studied using higher dimensional Einstein equation with dust matter. The difference of the topology between the usual space and the internal space gives rise to the segregation of these subspaces. Furthermore the contraction of the internal space causes the inflation of the usual space. (author)

  6. Hilltop Supernatural Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C.

    In this talk, I will explain how to reduce the spectral index to be n_s = 0.96 for supernatural inflation. I will also show the constraint to the reheating temperature from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis of both thermal and non-thermal gravitino production.

  7. Aspects of supersymmetric inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindblom, P.R.

    1987-01-01

    A new supersymmetric inflationary model is presented and shown to possess the following features: a successful slow rollover produced by quantum corrections; an acceptable pattern of supersymmetry breaking leading to the correct value of the electroweak scale; and a stable slow rollover transition to a minimum with vanishing cosmological constant. It is demonstrated that there is a class of GUT models which are compatible with an inflationary universe scenario in which: (a) the GUT and inflationary phase transitions are distinct (as in supersymmetric inflation); and (b) an observable number of GUT monopoles are created thermally due to reheating of the GUT sector after inflation. This provides one of the few ways of reconciling an observation of GUT monopoles with inflation. New techniques are developed for constructing inflationary models with multiple inflation fields, such as generalizing the one-dimensional slow rollover constraints and estimating the contribution to δρ/ρ from fluctuations transverse to the path of the slow rollover. A new method for ending the slow rollover portion of the inflationary transition is developed

  8. 20+ years of Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    García-Bellido, J

    2003-01-01

    In this talk I will review the present status of inflationary cosmology and its emergence as the basic paradigm behind the Standard Cosmological Model, with parameters determined today at better than 10% level from CMB and LSS observations. I will also discuss the recent theoretical developments on the process of reheating after inflation and model building based on string theory and D-branes.

  9. Reheating after inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kripfganz, Jochen; Karl-Marx-Universitaet, Leipzig; Ilgenfritz, E.M.

    1986-01-01

    A numerical analysis of reheating is performed for a classical scalar field with exponentially flat potential. An operational definition of the reheating time is given involving the gradient contribution to the inflation field energy. For the parameter range studied the product of reheating time and Hubble constant H is found to be of order one, being approximately independent of the value of H. (author)

  10. Testing Cosmic Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuss, David

    2010-01-01

    The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) has provided a wealth of information about the history and physics of the early Universe. Much progress has been made on uncovering the emerging Standard Model of Cosmology by such experiments as COBE and WMAP, and ESA's Planck Surveyor will likely increase our knowledge even more. Despite the success of this model, mysteries remain. Currently understood physics does not offer a compelling explanation for the homogeneity, flatness, and the origin of structure in the Universe. Cosmic Inflation, a brief epoch of exponential expansion, has been posted to explain these observations. If inflation is a reality, it is expected to produce a background spectrum of gravitational waves that will leave a small polarized imprint on the CMB. Discovery of this signal would give the first direct evidence for inflation and provide a window into physics at scales beyond those accessible to terrestrial particle accelerators. I will briefly review aspects of the Standard Model of Cosmology and discuss our current efforts to design and deploy experiments to measure the polarization of the CMB with the precision required to test inflation.

  11. Reheating after inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kripfganz, J.; Ilgenfritz, E.M.

    1985-07-01

    A numerical analysis of reheating is performed for a classical scalar field with exponentially flat potential. An operational definition of the reheating time is given involving the gradient contribution to the inflation field energy. For the parameter range studied the product of reheating time and Hubble constant H is found to be of order one, being approximately independent of the value of H. (author)

  12. The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

    2014-01-01

    We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inf...

  13. The CPI for rents: a case of understated inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Theodore M. Crone; Leonard I. Nakamura; Richard Voith

    2006-01-01

    Until the end of 1977, the method used in the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) to measure rent inflation tended to omit rent increases when units had a change of tenants or were vacant. Since such units typically had more rapid increases in rents than average units, this response bias biased inflation estimates downward. Beginning in 1978, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented a series of methodological changes that reduced response bias but substantial bias remained until 1985. We ...

  14. On the Rapid Rise of Social Networking Sites: New Findings and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Sonia; Brake, David R

    2010-01-01

    Social networking sites have been rapidly adopted by children and, especially, teenagers and young people worldwide, enabling new opportunities for the presentation of the self, learning, construction of a wide circle of relationships, and the management of privacy and intimacy. On the other hand, there are also concerns that social networking…

  15. Bus rapid transit and development : policies and practices that affect development around transit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    The development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is relatively recent in the United States, but several systems are in operation and more are advancing. There is a need for a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between land use and...

  16. Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer: Status and Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogut, Alan

    2009-01-01

    The Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer is a balloon-borne instrument to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background in order to detect the characteristic signature of gravity waves created during an inflationary epoch in the early universe. PIPER combines cold /I.G K\\ optics, 5120 bolometric detectors, and rapid polarization modulation using VPM grids to achieve both high sensitivity and excellent control of systematic errors. I will discuss the current status and plans for the PIPER instrument.

  17. Chaotic inflation with metric and matter perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldman, H.A.; Brandenberger, R.H.

    1989-01-01

    A perturbative scheme to analyze the evolution of both metric and scalar field perturbations in an expanding universe is developed. The scheme is applied to study chaotic inflation with initial metric and scalar field perturbations present. It is shown that initial gravitational perturbations with wavelength smaller than the Hubble radius rapidly decay. The metric simultaneously picks up small perturbations determined by the matter inhomogeneities. Both are frozen in once the wavelength exceeds the Hubble radius. (orig.)

  18. EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCE ON INFLATION: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihnatov Iulian

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we try to assess the main external determinants of inflation dynamics in Romania. The literature in the field of measuring inflation dynamics is wealthy and various. There are many developing country - level studies that examine inflation dynamics: Blavy (2004 - Guinea, Duma (2008 - Sri Lanka, Gottschalk et al (2008 - Sierra Leone, Moriyama (2008 - Sudan, Mwase (2006 - Tanzania, Williams and Adedeji (2004 - Dominican Republic, Hossain (2005 - Indonesia, Almounsor (2010 - Yemen. The issue of Romanian inflation dynamics is present in many and various studies, like Hammermann (2007, Pelinescu and Dospinescu (2006, Budina et al (2006 etc. There are no other recent studies that analyze the external determinants on Romanian inflation dynamics. In our paper we estimate an OLS single equation model, using a methodology derived from Almounsor (2010. The empirical analysis uses monthly data from August 2005 to January 2011. The start point of the data series is the moment of a major change in the National Bank of Romania (NBR monetary policy: adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The independent variables used in our research are: harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries, EUR/RON exchange rate, crude oil price index (for analyzing the external shocks effect and M2 monetary aggregate (intermediate money supply as a control variable. The outcomes suggest that inflation in Romania is driven mainly by international price shocks - harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries. The EUR/RON exchange rate depreciation has a small influence on domestic inflation. In the short run, the effect of the international oil price is insignificant. Money supply, used here as a control variable, is shown to have a very small effect on inflation in Romania when using OLS regressions. The results show that 66% of the domestic inflation variance is explained by the independent variables in our model.

  19. THE ACTUAL IMPLICATIONS OF INFLATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murăriţa Ilie

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors have started from the idea that inflationary phenomenon is a companion, the cause and the effect of the globalization of poverty in the broader context of world economy globalization. Therefore, starting from a common definition of inflation, the first objective was to identify causal relationships that singularize contemporary inflationary process. After that, attention was focused on the implications of inflation in the current stage, bearing in mind that monetary financial theory and practice are operating with perfectly anticipated inflation or imperfectly anticipated inflation. Inflation has great implications on the long-term contracts and wage contracts.

  20. South Africa's rapid electrification programme: Policy, institutional, planning, financing and technical innovations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekker, Bernard; Eberhard, Anton; Gaunt, Trevor; Marquard, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    This paper documents South Africa's electrification programme from the late 1980s to the present. The primary aim of the paper is to present the reader with an overview of the policy, institutional, planning, financing and technological developments and innovations that resulted in more than 5 million households receiving access to electricity between 1990 and 2007. Key aspects include the way in which a period of political change and policy disruption were essential to the programme's initiation, and the critical role played by organisations and individuals outside of national government in helping shape new electrification policies and strategies. In addition, the paper identifies the contribution of technology development in cost reduction and achieving the social aims of the programme. Several lessons may be drawn from the institutional and planning arrangements that the South African programme has developed, the significance of the development of appropriate cost-driven technical innovations and standards, and the acknowledgement of the social function of electrification and its funding from the fiscus (rather than through cross-subsidies)

  1. Exponential potentials, scaling solutions and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wands, D.; Copeland, E.J.; Liddle, A.R.

    1993-01-01

    The goal of driving a period of rapid inflation in the early universe in a model motivated by grand unified theories has been given new life in recent years in the context of extended gravity theories. Extended inflation is one model based on a Brans-Dicke type gravity which can allow a very general first-order phase transition to complete by changing the expansion of the false vacuum dominated universe from an exponential to a power law expansion. This inflation is conformally equivalent to general relativity where the vacuum energy density is exponentially dependent upon a dilaton field. With this in mind, the authors consider in this paper the evolution of a scalar field σ with a potential V(σ) = V 0 exp(-λκ 1/2 σ) in a spatially flat (κ = 0) Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric in the presence of a barotropic (P = (γ - 1)ρ) fluid. Here κ = 8πG, and λ is a dimensionless constant describing the steepness of the potential. It is well known that if the potential is sufficiently flat (λ small), the energy density of the scalar field dominated and the universe undergoes power law inflation. The behavior of fields with a steep potential seems to be less well known, although the results the authors present here are not new. 11 refs., 2 figs

  2. Kaehler-driven tribrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David

    2012-01-01

    We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kaehler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in 'pseudosmooth' tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kaehler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and p seudosmooth ) regimes

  3. Partnership in Knowledge Creation: Lessons Learned from a Researcher-Policy Actor Partnership to Co-Produce a Rapid Appraisal Case Study of South Australia's Social Inclusion Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Lareen; Biedrzycki, Kate; Patterson, Jan; Baum, Fran

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a partnership between researchers and policy actors that was developed within a short timeframe to produce a rapid appraisal case study of a government policy initiative--South Australia's "Social Inclusion Initiative"--for the Social Exclusion Knowledge Network of the international Commission on Social Determinants…

  4. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  5. Managing rapid urbanization in the third world: some aspects of policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hope, K R

    1989-01-01

    A priority task for developing countries is the formulation of national urbanization policies that: 1) foster the full development of national resources; 2) promote cohesion among regions, especially where there are striking inequities in per capita output; 3) prevent or correct the overconcentration of economic activity in a few urban centers; and 4) create a more efficient, equitable management of growth within cities. Although urban households tend to be served better by the health and educational sectors than their rural counterparts, the urban poor are denied these benefits in the absence of special programs to ensure universal access. The urban poor are further denied access to the benefits of urban centers through a transportation policy that is oriented more toward roads and cars than public transit systems. Of major concern are the overcrowded squatter settlements that have developed in response to massive rural-urban migration. Since the landlessness, joblessness, and demoralization in rural areas and the consequent urban influx are at the root of the urban crisis in the Third World, integrated rural development is essential to retain substantial new additions to the urban labor force in rural areas. Land reform is the single strategy with the greatest potential to improve the quality of life of the landless poor and small holders. Other needs include programs of labor-intensive rural public works to provide supplementary income-earning opportunities and improve the rural infrastructure and more widespread participation of the rural poor in the development process. Increasingly sophisticated administrative and financing systems will be required to carry out a national urbanization policy, and current politicized bureaucracies must be replaced by a reliance on technically skilled professional administrators.

  6. Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices And Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2014-01-01

    -side effects limit the size of the policy rate response to inflation that is consistent with determinacy, so that inflation-targeting policies may not be capable of ensuring REE uniqueness. In this case it is advisable to combine policy rate responses to inflation with an appropriate reaction to the output gap...

  7. Assessment on the Impact of Arable Land Protection Policies in a Rapidly Developing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiadan Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the effect of arable land protection policies in China, a practical framework that integrates geographic information systems (GIS, soil quality assessment and landscape metrics analysis was employed to track and analyze arable land transformations and landscape changes in response to rampant urbanization within the Ningbo region (China from 2005 to 2013. The results showed that arable land loss and degradation have continued, despite the development of a comprehensive legal framework for arable land protection. The implementation of arable land protection policies is judged to be effective, but not entirely successful, because it guarantees the overall amount of arable land but does not consider soil quality and spatial distribution. In addition, there are distinct variations in arable land change dynamics between two temporal intervals. From 2005–2009, the transformation of arable land was diversified, with intensified conversion among arable land, built-up land, water and orchards. Moreover, many new arable land parcels were adjacent to built-up land, and are in danger of being occupied again through urban sprawl. By 2009–2013, most of the arable land was occupied by urban expansion, whereas a majority of newly increased arable land was reclaimed from coastal tideland. Although the newly increased arable land was contiguous and far from the urban area, it is of poor quality and has limited use. The permanent loss of high-quality arable land due to intensified urban sprawl may threaten sustainable development and food security on a larger scale.

  8. Hybrid Natural Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Graham G.; Germán, Gabriel; Vázquez, J. Alberto

    2016-05-01

    We construct two simple effective field theory versions of Hybrid Natural Inflation (HNI) that illustrate the range of its phenomenological implications. The resulting inflationary sector potential, V = Δ4(1 + acos( ϕ/f)), arises naturally, with the inflaton field a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson. The end of inflation is triggered by a waterfall field and the conditions for this to happen are determined. Also of interest is the fact that the slow-roll parameter ɛ (and hence the tensor r) is a non-monotonic function of the field with a maximum where observables take universal values that determines the maximum possible tensor to scalar ratio r. In one of the models the inflationary scale can be as low as the electroweak scale. We explore in detail the associated HNI phenomenology, taking account of the constraints from Black Hole production, and perform a detailed fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarisation data.

  9. Hybrid Natural Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Graham G.; Germán, Gabriel; Vázquez, J. Alberto

    2016-01-01

    We construct two simple effective field theory versions of Hybrid Natural Inflation (HNI) that illustrate the range of its phenomenological implications. The resulting inflationary sector potential, V=Δ"4(1+acos (ϕ/f)), arises naturally, with the inflaton field a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson. The end of inflation is triggered by a waterfall field and the conditions for this to happen are determined. Also of interest is the fact that the slow-roll parameter ϵ (and hence the tensor r) is a non-monotonic function of the field with a maximum where observables take universal values that determines the maximum possible tensor to scalar ratio r. In one of the models the inflationary scale can be as low as the electroweak scale. We explore in detail the associated HNI phenomenology, taking account of the constraints from Black Hole production, and perform a detailed fit to the Planck 2015 temperature and polarisation data.

  10. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  11. Inflation After Preheating

    CERN Document Server

    Felder, G; Linde, Andrei D; Tkachev, Igor I; Felder, Gary; Kofman, Lev; Linde, Andrei; Tkachev, Igor

    2000-01-01

    Preheating after inflation may lead to nonthermal phase transitions with symmetry restoration. These phase transitions may occur even if the total energy density of fluctuations produced during reheating is relatively small as compared with the vacuum energy in the state with restored symmetry. As a result, in some inflationary models one encounters a secondary, nonthermal stage of inflation due to symmetry restoration after preheating. We review the theory of nonthermal phase transitions and make a prediction about the expansion factor during the secondary inflationary stage. We then present the results of lattice simulations which verify these predictions, and discuss possible implications of our results for the theory of formation of topological defects during nonthermal phase transitions.

  12. Inflation expels runaways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachlechner, Thomas C. [Department of Physics, Columbia University,New York, NY 10027 (United States)

    2016-12-30

    We argue that moduli stabilization generically restricts the evolution following transitions between weakly coupled de Sitter vacua and can induce a strong selection bias towards inflationary cosmologies. The energy density of domain walls between vacua typically destabilizes Kähler moduli and triggers a runaway towards large volume. This decompactification phase can collapse the new de Sitter region unless a minimum amount of inflation occurs after the transition. A stable vacuum transition is guaranteed only if the inflationary expansion generates overlapping past light cones for all observable modes originating from the reheating surface, which leads to an approximately flat and isotropic universe. High scale inflation is vastly favored. Our results point towards a framework for studying parameter fine-tuning and inflationary initial conditions in flux compactifications.

  13. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  14. Horizon feedback inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbairn, Malcolm; Markkanen, Tommi; Rodriguez Roman, David

    2018-04-01

    We consider the effect of the Gibbons-Hawking radiation on the inflaton in the situation where it is coupled to a large number of spectator fields. We argue that this will lead to two important effects - a thermal contribution to the potential and a gradual change in parameters in the Lagrangian which results from thermodynamic and energy conservation arguments. We present a scenario of hilltop inflation where the field starts trapped at the origin before slowly experiencing a phase transition during which the field extremely slowly moves towards its zero temperature expectation value. We show that it is possible to obtain enough e-folds of expansion as well as the correct spectrum of perturbations without hugely fine-tuned parameters in the potential (albeit with many spectator fields). We also comment on how initial conditions for inflation can arise naturally in this situation.

  15. The Primordial Inflation Explorer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogut, Alan J.

    2012-01-01

    The Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class mission to measure the gravity-wave signature of primordial inflation through its distinctive imprint on the linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background. PIXIE uses an innovative optical design to achieve background-limited sensitivity in 400 spectral channels spanning 2.5 decades in frequency from 30 GHz to 6 THz (1 cm to 50 micron wavelength). The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r < 10(exp -3) at 5 standard deviations. The rich PIXIE data set will also constrain physical processes ranging from Big Bang cosmology to the nature of the first stars to physical conditions within the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. I describe the PIXIE instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the inflationary signature using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.

  16. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  17. Inflation circa 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    The hot big bang cosmology provides a reliable accounting of the evolution of the Universe from -- 0.01 s after 'the bang' until the present (10-20 Byr after 'the bang'). This is a truly impressive achievement. There are, however, a handful of very fundamental 'cosmological facts' which the model by itself fails to elucidate. They include: the large-scale homogeneity, the isotropy, the small-scale inhomogeneity, the near critical expansion rate, the predominance of matter, the 'monopole problem', and the extremely tiny value of the present cosmological term. Inflation makes the present state of the observable Universe virtually insensitive to the initial state of the Universe. Unfortunately, at present there is no model of new inflation which both resolves the cosmological puzzles and leads to sensible particle physics. A general prescription for the cosmologically-desirable Higgs potential does exist

  18. String driven inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turok, N.

    1987-11-01

    It is argued that, in fundamental string theories, as one traces the universe back in time a point is reached when the expansion rate is so fast that the rate of string creation due to quantum effects balances the dilution of the string density due to the expansion. One is therefore led into a phase of constant string density and an exponentially expanding universe. Fundamental strings therefore seem to lead naturally to inflation. 17 refs., 1 fig

  19. String-driven inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turok, N.

    1988-01-01

    It is argued that, in fundamental string theories, as one traces the universe back in time a point is reached when the expansion rate is so fast that the rate of string creation due to quantum effects balances the dilution of the string density due to the expansion. One is therefore led into a phase of constant string density and an exponentially expanding universe. Fundamental strings therefore seem to lead naturally to inflation

  20. Inflation from supersymmetry breaking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antoniadis, I. [UMR CNRS 7589 Sorbonne Universites, UPMC Paris 6, LPTHE, Paris (France); University of Bern, Albert Einstein Center, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Bern (Switzerland); Chatrabhuti, A.; Isono, H.; Knoops, R. [Chulalongkorn University, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Pathumwan, Bangkok (Thailand)

    2017-11-15

    We explore the possibility that inflation is driven by supersymmetry breaking with the superpartner of the goldstino (sgoldstino) playing the role of the inflaton. Moreover, we impose an R-symmetry that allows one to satisfy easily the slow-roll conditions, avoiding the so-called η-problem, and leads to two different classes of small-field inflation models; they are characterised by an inflationary plateau around the maximum of the scalar potential, where R-symmetry is either restored or spontaneously broken, with the inflaton rolling down to a minimum describing the present phase of our Universe. To avoid the Goldstone boson and be left with a single (real) scalar field (the inflaton), R-symmetry is gauged with the corresponding gauge boson becoming massive. This framework generalises a model studied recently by the present authors, with the inflaton identified by the string dilaton and R-symmetry together with supersymmetry restored at weak coupling, at infinity of the dilaton potential. The presence of the D-term allows a tuning of the vacuum energy at the minimum. The proposed models agree with cosmological observations and predict a tensor-to-scalar ratio of primordial perturbations 10{sup -9} inflation scale 10{sup 10} GeV

  1. The inflating curvaton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Lyth, David H.; Kohri, Kazunori; Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2012-01-01

    The primordial curvature perturbation ζ may be generated by some curvaton field σ, which is negligible during inflation and has more or less negligible interactions until it decays. In the current scenario, the curvaton starts to oscillate while its energy density ρσ is negligible. We explore the opposite scenario, in which ρσ drives a few e-folds of inflation before the oscillation begins. In this scenario for generating ζ it is exceptionally easy to solve the η problem; one just has to make the curvaton a string axion, with anomaly-mediated susy breaking which may soon be tested at the LHC. The observed spectral index n can be obtained with a potential V∝φ p for the first inflation; p = 1 or 2 is allowed by the current uncertainty in n but the improvement in accuracy promised by Planck may rule out p = 1. The predictions include (i) running n' ≅ 0.0026 (0.0013) for p = 1 (2) that will probably be observed, (ii) non-gaussianity parameter f NL ; ∼ −1 that may be observed, (iii) tensor fraction r is probably too small to ever observed

  2. New Old Inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dvali, Gia

    2003-10-03

    We propose a new class of inflationary solutions to the standard cosmological problems (horizon, flatness, monopole,...), based on a modification of old inflation. These models do not require a potential which satisfies the normal inflationary slow-roll conditions. Our universe arises from a single tunneling event as the inflaton leaves the false vacuum. Subsequent dynamics (arising from either the oscillations of the inflaton field or thermal effects) keep a second field trapped in a false minimum, resulting in an evanescent period of inflation (with roughly 50 e-foldings) inside the bubble. This easily allows the bubble to grow sufficiently large to contain our present horizon volume. Reheating is accomplished when the inflaton driving the last stage of inflation rolls down to the true vacuum, and adiabatic density perturbations arise from moduli-dependent Yukawa couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Our scenario has several robust predictions, including virtual absence of gravity waves, a possible absence of tilt in scalar perturbations, and a higher degree of non-Gaussianity than other models. It also naturally incorporates a solution to the cosmological moduli problem.

  3. Gravitational waves from inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzzetti, M.C.; Bartolo, N.; Liguori, M.; Matarrese, S.

    2016-01-01

    The production of a stochastic background of gravitational waves is a fundamental prediction of any cosmological inflationary model. The features of such a signal encode unique information about the physics of the Early Universe and beyond, thus representing an exciting, powerful window on the origin and evolution of the Universe. We review the main mechanisms of gravitational-wave production, ranging from quantum fluctuations of the gravitational field to other mechanisms that can take place during or after inflation. These include e.g. gravitational waves generated as a consequence of extra particle production during inflation, or during the (p)reheating phase. Gravitational waves produced in inflation scenarios based on modified gravity theories and second-order gravitational waves are also considered. For each analyzed case, the expected power spectrum is given. We discuss the discriminating power among different models, associated with the validity/violation of the standard consistency relation between tensor-to-scalar ratio r and tensor spectral index ηT. In light of the prospects for (directly/indirectly) detecting primordial gravitational waves, we give the expected present-day gravitational radiation spectral energy-density, highlighting the main characteristics imprinted by the cosmic thermal history, and we outline the signatures left by gravitational waves on the Cosmic Microwave Background and some imprints in the Large-Scale Structure of the Universe. Finally, current bounds and prospects of detection for inflationary gravitational waves are summarized.

  4. Inflation and quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.

    1990-01-01

    We investigate an interplay between elementary particle physics, quantum cosmology and inflation. These results obtained within this approach are compared with the results obtained in the context of Euclidean quantum cosmology. In particular, we discuss relations between the stochastic approach to inflationary cosmology and the approaches based on the investigation of the Hartle-Hawking and tunneling wave functions of the universe. We argue that neither of these wave functions can be used for a complete description of the inflationary universe, but in certain cases they can be used for a description of some particular stages of inflation. It is shown that if the present vacuum energy density ρ υ exceeds some extremely small critical value ρ c (ρ c ∼ 10 -107 ) g cm -3 for chaotic inflation in the theory 1/2m 2 φ 2 ), then the lifetime of mankind in the inflationary universe should be finite, even though the universe as a whole will exist without end. A possible way to justify the anthropic principle in the context of the baby universe theory and to apply it to the evaluation of masses of elementary particles, of their coupling constants and of the vacuum energy density is also discussed. (author)

  5. The Effects of Remittances on Inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. S. Khan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Like many developing countries, remittances are relatively larger capital inflows in Bangladesh in the recent years. Hence, understanding the impact of remittances on the macroeconomic variables such as inflation is essential for the policy makers of the recipient economy. Incorporating remittances as an exogenous variable to the standard inflation function, this paper verifies how it affects the inflation rate in Bangladesh in the 1972-2010 periods. Applying Vector Autoregressive (VAR techniques, the empirical results find that a one percent increase in remittances inflows increases inflation rate by 2.48 percent in the long run, whereas no significant relationship is evident between these two variables in the short-run in Bangladesh.

  6. Remote inflation as hybrid-like sneutrino/MSSM inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2009-01-01

    A new scenario of hybrid-like inflation is considered for sneutrino and MSSM fields. Contrary to the usual hybrid inflation model, the direct coupling between a trigger field and the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton field is not necessary for the scenario. The dissipation and the radiation from the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton can be written explicitly by using the Yukawa couplings. Remote inflation does not require the shift symmetry or cancellation in solving the η problem.

  7. "The Consumer Price Index As a Measure of Inflation"

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; L. Randall Wray

    1996-01-01

    As inflation approaches zero, it becomes increasingly important to examine the price indices on which monetary policy is based. The most popularly used aggregate price statistic in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a statistic that appears to be a focal point in monetary policy deliberations. A problem associated with using the CPI, a fixed weight index of the cost-of-living, is that there are likely to be biases in the index as a measure of inflation. In this paper we use a simple ...

  8. Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens; Jing, Shenglin; Toronto Univ., ON

    2013-09-01

    We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α -5 . The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

  9. Scale-invariant extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Kolb, E.W.; Vadas, S.L.; Wang, Y.

    1991-01-01

    We propose a model of extended inflation which makes use of the nonlinear realization of scale invariance involving the dilaton coupled to an inflaton field whose potential admits a metastable ground state. The resulting theory resembles the Jordan-Brans-Dicke version of extended inflation. However, quantum effects, in the form of the conformal anomaly, generate a mass for the dilaton, thus allowing our model to evade the problems of the original version of extended inflation. We show that extended inflation can occur for a wide range of inflaton potentials with no fine-tuning of dimensionless parameters required. Furthermore, we also find that it is quite natural for the extended-inflation period to be followed by an epoch of slow-rollover inflation as the dilaton settles down to the minimum of its induced potential

  10. A rapid detection method for policy-sensitive amines real-time supervision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haixu; Shu, Jinian; Yang, Bo; Zhang, Peng; Ma, Pengkun

    2018-02-01

    Many organic amines that comprise a benzene ring are policy-sensitive because of their toxicity and links to social harm. However, to date, detection of such compounds mainly relies on offline methods. This study proposes an online pptv (parts per trillion by volume) level of detection method for amines, using the recently-built vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometer (VUV-PIMS) combined with a new doping technique. Thus, the dichloromethane doping-assisted photoionization mass spectra of aniline, benzylamine, phenethylamine, amphetamine, and their structural isomers were recorded. The dominant characteristic mass peaks for all amines are those afforded by protonated amines and the amino radical-loss. The signal intensities of the amines were enhanced by 60-130 times compared to those recorded without doping assistance. Under 10s detection time, the sensitivities of aniline and benzylamine in the gas phase were determined as 4.0 and 2.7 countspptv -1 , with limits of detection (LODs) of 36 and 22 pptv, respectively. Notably, the detection efficiency of this method can be tenfold better in future applications since the ion transmission efficiency of the mass spectrometer was intentionally reduced to ~ 10% in this study. Therefore, dichloromethane doping-assisted photoionization mass spectrometry has proven to be a highly promising on-line approach to amine detection in environmental and judicial supervision and shows great potential for application in the biological field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Inflation, its Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India

    OpenAIRE

    Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni

    2013-01-01

    This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL(1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation ...

  12. Inflation and the Higgs Scalar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, Dan [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

    2014-12-05

    This note makes a self-contained exposition of the basic facts of big bang cosmology as they relate to inflation. The fundamental problems with that model are then explored. A simple scalar model of inflation is evaluated which provides the solution of those problems and makes predictions which will soon be definitively tested. The possibility that the recently discovered fundamental Higgs scalar field drives inflation is explored.

  13. Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Membiela, A.; Bellini, M.

    2008-01-01

    Gravitoelectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in a unified manner electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflation fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields B i = A i /a produced during inflation could be the source of dark energy in the Universe.

  14. Stability of compactification during inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amendola, L.; Litterio, M.; Occhionero, F.; Kolb, E.W.

    1990-03-01

    The possibility that inflation may trigger an instability in compactification of extra spatial dimensions is considered. In old, new, or extended inflation, the false vacuum energy results in a semiclassical instability in which the scalar field representing the radius of the extra dimensions may tunnel through a potential barrier leading to an expansion of the internal space. In chaotic inflation, if the initial value of the scalar field responsible for inflation is large enough, the internal space becomes classically unstable to ever increasing expansion. Restrictions on inflationary models necessary to keep the extra dimensions small are discussed. 15 refs., 5 figs

  15. A critical review of inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Turok, N G

    2002-01-01

    The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it.

  16. A critical review of inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turok, Neil

    2002-01-01

    The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it

  17. Modulus D-term inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Saga, Ikumi; Sumita, Keigo

    2018-04-01

    We propose a new model of single-field D-term inflation in supergravity, where the inflation is driven by a single modulus field which transforms non-linearly under the U(1) gauge symmetry. One of the notable features of our modulus D-term inflation scenario is that the global U(1) remains unbroken in the vacuum and hence our model is not plagued by the cosmic string problem which can exclude most of the conventional D-term inflation models proposed so far due to the CMB observations.

  18. Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Rojas-Suarez

    1992-01-01

    This paper shows that there is a long-run relationship between the expected rate of depreciation in the black-market-exchange rate and the ratio of domestic to foreign money in Peru: that is, the hypothesis of currency substitution can explain the behavior of real holdings of money in Peru. The paper also shows that, while, the importance of currency substitution as a transmission mechanism through which domestic policies affected the dynamics of inflation was relatively small during a period...

  19. Analyzing Inflation and Its Control: A Resource Guide. Economics-Political Science Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salemi, Michael K.; Leak, Sarah

    Background information for teachers on inflation and self-contained learning activities to help students view inflation from both economic and political perspectives are provided. The introduction contains economics and political science frameworks for analyzing policy issues. How to integrate economics and political science is also discussed.…

  20. What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejene Mamo Bekana

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants of inflation for a post communist economy, in the long run as well as in the short run, using time series evidence from Ethiopia and applying the Johnson co integration and Error Correction Mechanisms. A vivid observation of the results shows that the short run determinants of inflation are broad money supply, growth of domestic gross product, real interest rate, budget deficit, Exchange rate, inflation expectation and world price movements. The result of the long run model after co integration is proved using the residual based ducky fuller test and the Johnson co integration tests revealed that broad money supply, government budget deficit, exchange rate and inflation expectation are found to be the major determinants of inflation. The result shows that domestic gross product growth rate has no effect on inflation. To curb inflation, therefore, policy makers need to implement prudential fiscal and monetary policy tools. Inflation expectations need to be tackled by way of transparent and well informed government policies to change consumer perception. Concerning this, it is important to consider targeting monetary and fiscal policy variables and appropriately implanting the set targets.

  1. Magnetogenesis from axion inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adshead, Peter; Scully, Timothy R.; Sfakianakis, Evangelos I. [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1110 West Green Street, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); Giblin, John T., E-mail: adshead@illinois.edu, E-mail: giblinj@kenyon.edu, E-mail: tscully2@illinois.edu, E-mail: esfaki@illinois.edu [Department of Physics, Kenyon College, 201 North College Rd, Gambier, Ohio 43022 (United States)

    2016-10-01

    In this work we compute the production of magnetic fields in models of axion inflation coupled to the hypercharge sector of the Standard Model through a Chern-Simons interaction term. We make the simplest choice of a quadratic inflationary potential and use lattice simulations to calculate the magnetic field strength, helicity and correlation length at the end of inflation. For small values of the axion-gauge field coupling strength the results agree with no-backreaction calculations and estimates found in the literature. For larger couplings the helicity of the magnetic field differs from the no-backreaction estimate and depends strongly on the comoving wavenumber. We estimate the post-inflationary evolution of the magnetic field based on known results for the evolution of helical and non-helical magnetic fields. The magnetic fields produced by axion inflation with large couplings to U(1) {sub Y} can reach B {sub eff} ∼> 10{sup −16} G, exhibiting a field strength B {sub phys} ≈ 10{sup −13} G and a correlation length λ{sub phys} ≈10 pc. This result is insensitive to the exact value of the coupling, as long as the coupling is large enough to allow for instantaneous preheating. Depending on the assumptions for the physical processes that determine blazar properties, these fields can be found consistent with blazar observations based on the value of B {sub eff}. Finally, the intensity of the magnetic field for large coupling can be enough to satisfy the requirements for a recently proposed baryogenesis mechanism, which utilizes the chiral anomaly of the Standard Model.

  2. Explosive dome eruptions modulated by periodic gas-driven inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jeffrey B.; Lyons, John; Andrews, B. J.; Lees, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Volcan Santiaguito (Guatemala) “breathes” with extraordinary regularity as the edifice's conduit system accumulates free gas, which periodically vents to the atmosphere. Periodic pressurization controls explosion timing, which nearly always occurs at peak inflation, as detected with tiltmeters. Tilt cycles in January 2012 reveal regular 26 ± 6 min inflation/deflation cycles corresponding to at least ~101 kg/s of gas fluxing the system. Very long period (VLP) earthquakes presage explosions and occur during cycles when inflation rates are most rapid. VLPs locate ~300 m below the vent and indicate mobilization of volatiles, which ascend at ~50 m/s. Rapid gas ascent feeds pyroclast-laden eruptions lasting several minutes and rising to ~1 km. VLPs are not observed during less rapid inflation episodes; instead, gas vents passively through the conduit producing no infrasound and no explosion. These observations intimate that steady gas exsolution and accumulation in shallow reservoirs may drive inflation cycles at open-vent silicic volcanoes.

  3. Inflation targeting and inflation performance : a comparative analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Samarina, Anna; De Haan, Jakob; Terpstra, M.

    2014-01-01

    This article examines how the impact of inflation targeting on inflation performance depends on the choice of country samples, adoption dates, time periods and methodological approaches. We apply two different estimation methods - difference-in-differences and propensity score matching - for our

  4. News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research

  5. News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the

  6. Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.

    -, č. 353 (2008), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp353.pdf

  7. Inflation in a web

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Sheng; Piao Yunsong; Liu Yang

    2009-01-01

    In a given path with multiple branches, in principle, it can be expected that there are some fork points, where one branch is bifurcated into different branches, or various branches converge into one or several branches. In this paper, it is shown that if there is a web formed by such branches in a given field space, in which each branch can be responsible for a period of slow roll inflation, a multiverse separated by a domain wall network will come into being, some of which might correspond to our observable universe. We discuss this scenario and show possible observations of a given observer at late time.

  8. New inflation revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenberger, R.H.

    1986-01-01

    Cosmological phase transitions are examined using a new approach based on the dynamical analysis of the equations of motion of quantum fields rather than on static effective potential considerations. In many models the universe enters a period of exponential expansion required for an inflationary cosmology. Analytical methods show that this will be the case if the interaction rate due to quantum field nonlinearities is small compared to the expansion rate of the universe. They derive a heuristic criterion for the maximal value of the coupling constant for which they expect inflation. The prediction is in good agreement with numerical results

  9. Supergravity and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binetruy, P.

    1985-08-01

    The reasons that led to study supersymmetric models in the context of inflation are reviewed by setting up the constraints that candidates to an inflationary scenario must satisfy. The question is raised whether the groundstate of the new scalar field introduced, the inflaton, breaks supersymmetry. This is discussed in connection with the so-called thermal constraint. Some problems about the study of thermal fluctuations are discussed. The different models available are reviewed and the way they address those issues. A discussion of baryon number generation and of the gravitino problem follows. 67 refs., 4 figs

  10. Brany Liouville inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, John; Mavromatos, Nikolaos; Nanopoulos, Dimitri; Sakharov, Alexander

    2004-01-01

    We present a specific model for cosmological inflation driven by the Liouville field in a non-critical supersymmetric string framework, in which the departure from criticality is due to open strings stretched between two moving Type-II 5-branes. We use WMAP and other data on fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background to fix the parameters of the model, such as the relative separation and velocity of the 5-branes, respecting also the constraints imposed by data on light propagation from distant gamma-ray bursters. The model also suggests a small, relaxing component in the present vacuum energy that may accommodate the breaking of supersymmetry

  11. Realization of new inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, A.; Brandenberger, R.H.

    1985-01-01

    We examine cosmological phase transitions using a new approach and argue that there are many models in which the universe enters a period of exponential expansion required for an inflationary cosmology. A sufficient condition is that the interaction rates due to quantum field nonlinearities be sufficiently small compared to the expansion rate of the universe. In Coleman-Weinberg-type models this requires tuning the gauge coupling constant to a low value. In pure scalar field theories, the conditions for inflation are satisfied if the scale of symmetry breaking is of the order of the Planck scale

  12. A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto Libânio

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions. Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

  13. Strings, texture, and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodges, H.M.; Primack, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    We examine mechanisms, several of which are proposed here, to generate structure formation, or to just add large-scale features, through either gauged or global cosmic strings or global texture, within the framework of inflation. We first explore the possibility that strings or texture form if there is no coupling between the topological theory and the inflaton or spacetime curvature, via (1) quantum creation, and (2) a sufficiently high reheat temperature. In addition, we examine the prospects for the inflaton field itself to generate strings or texture. Then, models with the string/texture field coupled to the curvature, and an equivalent model with coupling to the inflaton field, are considered in detail. The requirement that inflationary density fluctuations are not so large as to conflict with observations leads to a number of constraints on model parameters. We find that strings of relevance for structure formation can form in the absence of coupling to the inflaton or curvature through the process of quantum creation, but only if the strings are strongly type I, or if they are global strings. If formed after reheating, naturalness suggests that gauged cosmic strings correspond to a type-I superconductor. Similarly, gauged strings formed during inflation via conformal coupling ξ=1/6 to the spacetime curvature (in a model suggested by Yokoyama in order to evade the millisecond pulsar constraint on cosmic strings) are expected to be strongly type I

  14. Holography of Little Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett McInnes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available For several crucial microseconds of its early history, the Universe consisted of a Quark–Gluon Plasma. As it cooled during this era, it traced out a trajectory in the quark matter phase diagram. The form taken by this trajectory is not known with certainty, but is of great importance: it determines, for example, whether the cosmic plasma passed through a first-order phase change during the transition to the hadron era, as has recently been suggested by advocates of the “Little Inflation” model. Just before this transition, the plasma was strongly coupled and therefore can be studied by holographic techniques. We show that holography imposes a strong constraint (taking the form of a bound on the baryonic chemical potential relative to the temperature on the domain through which the cosmic plasma could pass as it cooled, with important consequences for Little Inflation. In fact, we find that holography applied to Little Inflation implies that the cosmic plasma must have passed quite close to the quark matter critical point, and might therefore have been affected by the associated fluctuation phenomena.

  15. Dissipative Axial Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Notari, Alessio

    2016-12-22

    We analyze in detail the background cosmological evolution of a scalar field coupled to a massless abelian gauge field through an axial term $\\frac{\\phi}{f_\\gamma} F \\tilde{F}$, such as in the case of an axion. Gauge fields in this case are known to experience tachyonic growth and therefore can backreact on the background as an effective dissipation into radiation energy density $\\rho_R$, which which can lead to inflation without the need of a flat potential. We analyze the system, for momenta $k$ smaller than the cutoff $f_\\gamma$, including numerically the backreaction. We consider the evolution from a given static initial condition and explicitly show that, if $f_\\gamma$ is smaller than the field excursion $\\phi_0$ by about a factor of at least ${\\cal O} (20)$, there is a friction effect which turns on before that the field can fall down and which can then lead to a very long stage of inflation with a generic potential. In addition we find superimposed oscillations, which would get imprinted on any kind of...

  16. Anisotropic constant-roll inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro [Kobe University, Department of Physics, Kobe (Japan)

    2018-01-15

    We study constant-roll inflation in the presence of a gauge field coupled to an inflaton. By imposing the constant anisotropy condition, we find new exact anisotropic constant-roll inflationary solutions which include anisotropic power-law inflation as a special case. We also numerically show that the new anisotropic solutions are attractors in the phase space. (orig.)

  17. Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of

  18. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  19. Inflation differentials among Czech households

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janský, Petr; Hait, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 1 (2016), s. 71-84 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD020188 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : households * inflation * inflation differentials Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.710, year: 2016

  20. Assisted inflation from geometric tachyon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panigrahi, Kamal L.; Singh, Harvendra

    2007-01-01

    We study the effect of rolling of N D3-branes in the vicinity of NS5-branes. We find out that this system coupled with the four dimensional gravity gives the slow roll assisted inflation of the scalar field theory. Once again this expectation is exactly similar to that of N-tachyon assisted inflation on unstable D-branes

  1. Why Credit Deflation Is More Likely than Mass Inflation: An Austrian Overview of the Inflation Versus Deflation Debate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay Boyapati

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an Austrian overview of the inflation versus deflation debate which has captured the attention of the economics profession in the years following the US housing bust. Much of the Austrian analysis of this debate has focused on the massive expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and attendant creation of new reserves. Several Austrian economists have predicted that the creation of new reserves will cause a massive increase in inflation. The money multiplier theory, on which these predictions are based, is criticized and an overview of the Austrian business cycle theory is provided to explain why banks are reluctant to issue new credit. Finally, an analysis of the politics of deflation is provided and a class theory is presented to explain why a policy of controlled credit deflation is more likely than a policy that would result in mass inflation or hyperinflation.

  2. Stochastic effects in hybrid inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jérôme; Vennin, Vincent

    2012-02-01

    Hybrid inflation is a two-field model where inflation ends due to an instability. In the neighborhood of the instability point, the potential is very flat and the quantum fluctuations dominate over the classical motion of the inflaton and waterfall fields. In this article, we study this regime in the framework of stochastic inflation. We numerically solve the two coupled Langevin equations controlling the evolution of the fields and compute the probability distributions of the total number of e-folds and of the inflation exit point. Then, we discuss the physical consequences of our results, in particular, the question of how the quantum diffusion can affect the observable predictions of hybrid inflation.

  3. An Economic Recovery with Little Sign of Inflation Acceleration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustai...

  4. Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.

    2015-01-01

    We derive policy implications for an inflation targeting central bank, who's credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. We do this in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous agents and boundely rational expectations. Our assumptions about expectation

  5. Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uzagalieva, Ainura

    -, 04/01 (2004), s. 1-37 ISSN 1561-2422 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.eerc.ru/details/download.aspx?file_id=3744

  6. Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Uzagalieva, Ainura

    -, č. 261 (2005), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * core inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp261.pdf

  7. Rapid review programs to support health care and policy decision making: a descriptive analysis of processes and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polisena, Julie; Garritty, Chantelle; Kamel, Chris; Stevens, Adrienne; Abou-Setta, Ahmed M

    2015-03-14

    Health care decision makers often need to make decisions in limited timeframes and cannot await the completion of a full evidence review. Rapid reviews (RRs), utilizing streamlined systematic review methods, are increasingly being used to synthesize the evidence with a shorter turnaround time. Our primary objective was to describe the processes and methods used internationally to produce RRs. In addition, we sought to understand the underlying themes associated with these programs. We contacted representatives of international RR programs from a broad realm in health care to gather information about the methods and processes used to produce RRs. The responses were summarized narratively to understand the characteristics associated with their processes and methods. The summaries were compared and contrasted to highlight potential themes and trends related to the different RR programs. Twenty-nine international RR programs were included in our sample with a broad organizational representation from academia, government, research institutions, and non-for-profit organizations. Responses revealed that the main objectives for RRs were to inform decision making with regards to funding health care technologies, services and policy, and program development. Central themes that influenced the methods used by RR programs, and report type and dissemination were the imposed turnaround time to complete a report, resources available, the complexity and sensitivity of the research topics, and permission from the requestor. Our study confirmed that there is no standard approach to conduct RRs. Differences in processes and methods across programs may be the result of the novelty of RR methods versus other types of evidence syntheses, customization of RRs for various decision makers, and definition of 'rapid' by organizations, since it impacts both the timelines and the evidence synthesis methods. Future research should investigate the impact of current RR methods and reporting to

  8. Inflation from field theory and string theory perspectives. Matter inflation and slow-walking inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halter, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the

  9. Inflation from field theory and string theory perspectives. Matter inflation and slow-walking inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halter, Sebastian

    2012-07-09

    This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the

  10. News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll ). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University...... of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection among news on inflation, consumers’ frequency of expectation updating, and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise...

  11. Gli effetti della scala mobile sull'inflazione e sulle politiche di stabilizzazione: un commento al modello Modigliani-Padoa-Schioppa (The effects of wage indexation on inflation and on stabilization policies: a comment on the Modigliani-Padoa Schioppa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. VITALETTI

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In a recent article, F. Modigliani and T. Padoa-Schioppa argued that indexing at 100% with frequent wage adjustments rises the general rate of inflation associated with a given gap between the price level desired by businesses and that compatible with the real bargaining wage of workers. The present work compares this examination of an economy with wages indexed at 100% with an alternative situation in which indexing is absent or not effective in protecting wages. It is shown that in the presence of expectations of inflation incorporated into the determination of wage rates: 1 if there is a gap between the price level desired by businesses and that compatible with the real wage desired by workers, inflation is growing rather than stable as in the M.-P.S. model; 2 the "return" of inflation through restrictive maneuvers is accomplished with greater difficulty and involves greater time and costs than in the M.-P.S. model. JEL: E24, E31, J31

  12. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  13. Inflation from Minkowski space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pirtskhalava, David; Santoni, Luca; Trincherini, Enrico; Uttayarat, Patipan

    2014-01-01

    We propose a class of scalar models that, once coupled to gravity, lead to cosmologies that smoothly and stably connect an inflationary quasi-de Sitter universe to a low, or even zero-curvature, maximally symmetric spacetime in the asymptotic past, strongly violating the null energy condition ( H-dot ≫H"2) at intermediate times. The models are deformations of the conformal galileon lagrangian and are therefore based on symmetries, both exact and approximate, that ensure the quantum robustness of the whole picture. The resulting cosmological backgrounds can be viewed as regularized extensions of the galilean genesis scenario, or, equivalently, as ‘early-time-complete’ realizations of inflation. The late-time inflationary dynamics possesses phenomenologically interesting properties: it can produce a large tensor-to-scalar ratio within the regime of validity of the effective field theory and can lead to sizeable equilateral nongaussianities.

  14. Constraining monodromy inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard; Flauger, Raphael

    2013-01-01

    We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the 9-year WMAP release to derive constraints on monodromy inflation, which is characterized by a linear inflaton potential with a periodic modulation. We identify two possible periodic modulations that significantly improve the fit, lowering χ 2 by approximately 10 and 20. However, standard Bayesian model selection criteria assign roughly equal odds to the modulated potential and the unmodulated case. A modulated inflationary potential can generate substantial primordial non-Gaussianity with a specific and characteristic form. For the best-fit parameters to the WMAP angular power spectrum, the corresponding non-Gaussianity might be detectable in upcoming CMB data, allowing nontrivial consistency checks on the predictions of a modulated inflationary potential

  15. Rescuing Quadratic Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Sueiro, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Inflationary models based on a single scalar field $\\phi$ with a quadratic potential $V = \\frac{1}{2} m^2 \\phi^2$ are disfavoured by the recent Planck constraints on the scalar index, $n_s$, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio for cosmological density perturbations, $r_T$. In this paper we study how such a quadratic inflationary model can be rescued by postulating additional fields with quadratic potentials, such as might occur in sneutrino models, which might serve as either curvatons or supplementary inflatons. Introducing a second scalar field reduces but does not remove the pressure on quadratic inflation, but we find a sample of three-field models that are highly compatible with the Planck data on $n_s$ and $r_T$. We exhibit a specific three-sneutrino example that is also compatible with the data on neutrino mass difference and mixing angles.

  16. Cosmology, inflation, and supersymmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, A.; Dimopoulos, S.; Fischler, W.; Kolb, E.W.; Raby, S.; Steinhardt, P.J.

    1982-01-01

    Cosmological consequences of supersymmetric grand unified models based on the Witten-O'Raifeartaigh potential are discussed. In particular we study the development of the phase transition in the spontaneous breaking of supersymmetry. We find that in realistic models where light fields feel supersymmetry breaking only through coupling to massive fields, e.g., the Geometric Hierarchy model, the universe does not inflate or reheat. Thus, the standard cosmological flatness, monopole, and horizon problems remain. In addition, we find that the transition is never completed, in the sense that the universe remains dominated by coherent Higgs field energy, resulting in an apparent matter dominated universe with Ω greater than or equal to 10 30

  17. Extended inflation with induced gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Accetta, F.S.; Trester, J.J.; Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520)

    1989-01-01

    We consider a recently proposed extended model of inflation which improves upon the original old inflation scenario by achieving a graceful exit from the false-vacuum phase. In this paper extended inflation is generalized to include a potential V(phi) for the Brans-Dicke-type field phi. We find that whereas a graceful exit can still be had, the inclusion of a potential places constraints on the percolation time scale for exiting the inflationary phase. Additional constraints on V(phi) and the false-vacuum energy density rho /sub F/ from density and gravitational-wave perturbations are discussed. For initially small values of phi the false vacuum undergoes power-law inflation, while for initially large values of phi the expansion is exponential. Within true-vacuum regions slow-rolling inflation can occur. As a result, this model generically leads to multiple episodes of inflation. We discuss the significance these multiple episodes of inflation may have on the formation of large-scale structure and the production of voids

  18. Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezzy Eko Caraka

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260

  19. The Impact of Financial Dollarization on Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabris Nikola

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Serbia has applied inflation targeting against the backdrop of financial dollarization for almost a decade. In such circumstances, efficiency of monetary policy instruments decreases and begs the question of efficiency of the monetary regime efficiency issue. Although there is some empirical testing of financial dollarization effects on monetary policy performance in the inflation targeting regime for some countries, such studies for Serbia mostly cover periods of early application of the regime.

  20. Small Open Economies with Frictions in Credit Markets: Target inflation or money growth when floating?

    OpenAIRE

    Paula Hernandez-Verme

    2009-01-01

    I compare the relative merits of a policy of inflation targeting for small open economies with frictions in financial markets with an alternative floating regime that has a constant rate of domestic money growth. The differences between these two policies appear only in the dynamic properties of equilibria with credit rationing. When the probability of loan repayment is low, inflation targeting eliminates endogenous volatility when compared with a constant money growth, but equilibria remain ...

  1. Rapid Assessment of Environmental Health Impacts for Policy Support: The Example of Road Transport in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Briggs

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available An integrated environmental health impact assessment of road transport in New Zealand was carried out, using a rapid assessment. The disease and injury burden was assessed from traffic-related accidents, air pollution, noise and physical (inactivity, and impacts attributed back to modal source. In total, road transport was found to be responsible for 650 deaths in 2012 (2.1% of annual mortality: 308 from traffic accidents, 283 as a result of air pollution, and 59 from noise. Together with morbidity, these represent a total burden of disease of 26,610 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs. An estimated 40 deaths and 1874 DALYs were avoided through active transport. Cars are responsible for about 52% of attributable deaths, but heavy goods vehicles (6% of vehicle kilometres travelled, vkt accounted for 21% of deaths. Motorcycles (1 per cent of vkt are implicated in nearly 8% of deaths. Overall, impacts of traffic-related air pollution and noise are low compared to other developed countries, but road accident rates are high. Results highlight the need for policies targeted at road accidents, and especially at heavy goods vehicles and motorcycles, along with more general action to reduce the reliance on private road transport. The study also provides a framework for national indicator development.

  2. Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Adrián Armas; Francisco Grippa

    2005-01-01

    This discusses the unique experience of Peru`s Central Bank with inflation targeting in an economy characterized by a high degree of financial dollarization. The paper outlines how Peru has taken financial dollarization into consideration in the design of monetary policy, then deals with monetary policy implementation and the Central Bank`s strategy for controlling financial dollarization risks. The paper concludes with analysis and lessons drawn from the Peruvian case.

  3. Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Inflation Targeting on the Risk Premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krušković Borivoje D.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The basis for the conduct of monetary policy is monetary policy strategy. Monetary strategy is necessary for monetary policy makers to analyse all relevant information in order to undertake effective policy actions. Inflation targeting has enabled countries to achieve low inflation in the very short term. Due to this, the financial markets have adjusted their long-term inflation expectations and incorporated them into the interest rate. Risk premiums that compensate for the uncertainty of inflation have fallen. The aim of this paper is to examine how the adoption of inflation targeting affects the movement of the risk premium. The hypothesis we want to test is that the adoption of inflation targeting affects the reduction of the country risk premium by affecting the formation of a more stable macroeconomic environment through a more stable and predictable inflation rate in the medium and long term. The method used for evaluating the regression coefficients is the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM. This method involves the use of conditional moments in endogenous and exogenous variables with a lag as instruments for the assessment of differential equations, while the difference lagged endogenous variables are used as instruments in the levels equation.

  4. Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inflation expectations are related to expected future changes .... had to choose from a menu of options with a further response in one instance, while .... 1The marginal effect or partial derivatives depend on the value of x, and the marginal.

  5. Natural inflation and quantum gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Fuente, Anton; Saraswat, Prashant; Sundrum, Raman

    2015-04-17

    Cosmic inflation provides an attractive framework for understanding the early Universe and the cosmic microwave background. It can readily involve energies close to the scale at which quantum gravity effects become important. General considerations of black hole quantum mechanics suggest nontrivial constraints on any effective field theory model of inflation that emerges as a low-energy limit of quantum gravity, in particular, the constraint of the weak gravity conjecture. We show that higher-dimensional gauge and gravitational dynamics can elegantly satisfy these constraints and lead to a viable, theoretically controlled and predictive class of natural inflation models.

  6. Bianchi models and new inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, M.S.; Widrow, L.

    1986-03-01

    The promise of the inflationary Universe scenario is to free the present state of the Universe from extreme dependence on initial data. Paradoxically, inflation is usually analyzed in the context of the homogeneous and isotropic Robertson-Walker (RW) cosmological models. We show that all but a small subset of the homogeneous models (the Bianchi models) undergo inflation. Any initial anisotropy is so strongly damped that if sufficient inflation occurs to solve the flatness/horizon problems the Universe today would still be very isotropic. Some of the Bianchi models will eventually (in the exponentially distant future) become very anisotropic again. 15 refs

  7. Higgs Inflation as a Mirage

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    After reviewing the nice properties of Higgs inflation and some of its problems, I will discuss a simple unitarization of the scenario that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Inflationary dynamics is not dominated by the Higgs field, but 'Higgs inflation' arises as an approximate 'mirage' picture of the true dynamics. I will speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.

  8. Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2009), s. 102-127 ISSN 0015-1920 Grant - others:Česká národní banka(CZ) E5/05 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.264, year: 2009 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1153_babeck%C3%BD_horv%C3%A1th_coricelli.pdf

  9. 12 CFR 19.240 - Inflation adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 19.240 Section 19.240... PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 19.240 Inflation adjustments. (a) The maximum amount... Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note) as follows: ER10NO08.001 (b) The...

  10. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  11. Symmetry breaking patterns for inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Remko; Roest, Diederik; Stefanyszyn, David

    2018-06-01

    We study inflationary models where the kinetic sector of the theory has a non-linearly realised symmetry which is broken by the inflationary potential. We distinguish between kinetic symmetries which non-linearly realise an internal or space-time group, and which yield a flat or curved scalar manifold. This classification leads to well-known inflationary models such as monomial inflation and α-attractors, as well as a new model based on fixed couplings between a dilaton and many axions which non-linearly realises higher-dimensional conformal symmetries. In this model, inflation can be realised along the dilatonic direction, leading to a tensor-to-scalar ratio r ˜ 0 .01 and a spectral index n s ˜ 0 .975. We refer to the new model as ambient inflation since inflation proceeds along an isometry of an anti-de Sitter ambient space-time, which fully determines the kinetic sector.

  12. Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop an entry and descent technology to enhance and enable robotic and scientific missions to destinations with atmospheres.The Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic...

  13. Linear inflation from quartic potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kannike, Kristjan; Racioppi, Antonio [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,Tartu (Estonia)

    2016-01-07

    We show that if the inflaton has a non-minimal coupling to gravity and the Planck scale is dynamically generated, the results of Coleman-Weinberg inflation are confined in between two attractor solutions: quadratic inflation, which is ruled out by the recent measurements, and linear inflation which, instead, is in the experimental allowed region. The minimal scenario has only one free parameter — the inflaton’s non-minimal coupling to gravity — that determines all physical parameters such as the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the reheating temperature of the Universe. Should the more precise future measurements of inflationary parameters point towards linear inflation, further interest in scale-invariant scenarios would be motivated.

  14. Dissipative axial inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notari, Alessio [Departament de Física Fondamental i Institut de Ciències del Cosmos, Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès 1, Barcelona, 08028 Spain (Spain); Tywoniuk, Konrad, E-mail: notari@ffn.ub.es, E-mail: konrad.tywoniuk@cern.ch [Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2016-12-01

    We analyze in detail the background cosmological evolution of a scalar field coupled to a massless abelian gauge field through an axial term φ/ f {sub γ} F ∼ F , such as in the case of an axion. Gauge fields in this case are known to experience tachyonic growth and therefore can backreact on the background as an effective dissipation into radiation energy density ρ{sub R}, which can lead to inflation without the need of a flat potential. We analyze the system, for momenta k smaller than the cutoff f {sub γ}, including the backreaction numerically. We consider the evolution from a given static initial condition and explicitly show that, if f {sub γ} is smaller than the field excursion φ{sub 0} by about a factor of at least O (20), there is a friction effect which turns on before the field can fall down and which can then lead to a very long stage of inflation with a generic potential. In addition we find superimposed oscillations, which would get imprinted on any kind of perturbations, scalars and tensors. Such oscillations have a period of 4–5 efolds and an amplitude which is typically less than a few percent and decreases linearly with f {sub γ}. We also stress that the curvature perturbation on uniform density slices should be sensitive to slow-roll parameters related to ρ{sub R} rather than φ-dot {sup 2}/2 and we discuss the existence of friction terms acting on the perturbations, although we postpone a calculation of the power spectrum and of non-gaussianity to future work and we simply define and compute suitable slow roll parameters. Finally we stress that this scenario may be realized in the axion case, if the coupling 1/ f {sub γ} to U(1) (photons) is much larger than the coupling 1/ f {sub G} to non-abelian gauge fields (gluons), since the latter sets the range of the potential and therefore the maximal allowed φ{sub 0∼} f {sub G}.

  15. How useful are leading indicators of inflation?

    OpenAIRE

    C. Alan Garner

    1995-01-01

    Many economists expect inflation to rise in 1995. These expectations are based on various approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on the standard economic theory that inflation rises when slack is eliminated from the economy and production exceeds capacity constraints. According to this view, measures of economic slack such as unemployment and capacity utilization provide useful information about the inflation outlook. But the relationship between slack and inflation is com...

  16. Complex Hybrid Inflation and Baryogenesis

    OpenAIRE

    Delepine, David; Martinez, Carlos; Urena-Lopez, L. Arturo

    2006-01-01

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U(1) global symmetry associated to the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry. The latter strongly depends on the vev of the waterfall field, which is well constrained by diverse cosmological observations.

  17. Complex Hybrid Inflation and Baryogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delepine, David; Martinez, Carlos; Urena-Lopez, L. Arturo

    2007-01-01

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U(1) global symmetry associated with the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry. The latter strongly depends on the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field, which is well constrained by diverse cosmological observations

  18. Complex hybrid inflation and baryogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delepine, David; Martínez, Carlos; Ureña-López, L Arturo

    2007-04-20

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U(1) global symmetry associated with the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry. The latter strongly depends on the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field, which is well constrained by diverse cosmological observations.

  19. Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membiela, F. A.; Bellini, M.

    2008-02-01

    Gravitoectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in an unified manner, electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflaton fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields $B_i=A_i/a$ produced during inflation, could be the source of dark energy in the universe.

  20. Some problems with extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinberg, E.J.

    1989-01-01

    The recently proposed extended inflation scenario is examined. Upper bounds on the Brans-Dicke parameter ω are obtained by requiring that the recovery from the supercooled regime be such that the presently observed Universe could have emerged. These bounds are well below the present-day experimental limits, implying that one must use models which have a potential to fix the present value of the Brans-Dicke-like scalar field. The implications for extended inflation in such models are discussed

  1. Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Jing, Shenglin [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Canadian Inst. for Theoretical Astrophysics; Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Astronomy and Astrophysics

    2013-09-15

    We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running {alpha}<{proportional_to}0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}10{sup -5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

  2. Staggered multi-field inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battefeld, Diana; Battefeld, Thorsten; Davis, Anne-Christine

    2008-01-01

    We investigate multi-field inflationary scenarios with fields that drop out of the model in a staggered fashion. This feature is natural in certain multi-field inflationary setups within string theory; for instance, it can manifest itself when fields are related to tachyons that condense, or inter-brane distances that become meaningless when branes annihilate. Considering a separable potential, and promoting the number of fields to a smooth time dependent function, we derive the formalism to deal with these models at the background and perturbed level, providing general expressions for the scalar spectral index and the running. We recover known results of e.g. a dynamically relaxing cosmological constant in the appropriate limits. We further show that isocurvature perturbations are suppressed during inflation, and so perturbations are adiabatic and nearly Gaussian. The resulting setup might be interpreted as a novel type of warm inflation, readily implemented within string theory and without many of the shortcomings associated with warm inflation. To exemplify the applicability of the formalism we consider three concrete models: assisted inflation with exponential potentials as a simple toy model (a graceful exit becomes possible), inflation from multiple tachyons (a constant decay rate of the number of fields and negligible slow roll contributions turns out to be in good agreement with observations) and inflation from multiple M5-branes within M-theory (a narrow stacking of branes yields a consistent scenario)

  3. Does the central bank directly respond to output and 
inflation uncertainties in Turkey?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pelin Öge Güney

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the role of inflation and output uncertainties on monetary policy rules in Turkey for the period 2002:01–2014:02. In the literature it is suggested that uncertainty is a key element in monetary policy, hence empirical models of monetary policy should regard to uncertainty. In this study, we estimate a forward-looking monetary reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT. In addition to inflation and output gap variables, our reaction function also includes both the inflation and output growth uncertainties. Our results suggest that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT concerns with mainly price stability and significantly responds to inflation and growth uncertainties.

  4. Inflation in Flatland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinterbichler, Kurt [CERCA, Department of Physics, Case Western Reserve University, 10900 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44106 (United States); Joyce, Austin [Center for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Khoury, Justin, E-mail: kurt.hinterbichler@case.edu, E-mail: austin.joyce@columbia.edu, E-mail: jkhoury@sas.upenn.edu [Center for Particle Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States)

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the symmetry structure of inflation in 2+1 dimensions. In particular, we show that the asymptotic symmetries of three-dimensional de Sitter space are in one-to-one correspondence with cosmological adiabatic modes for the curvature perturbation. In 2+1 dimensions, the asymptotic symmetry algebra is infinite-dimensional, given by two copies of the Virasoro algebra, and can be traced to the conformal symmetries of the two-dimensional spatial slices of de Sitter. We study the consequences of this infinite-dimensional symmetry for inflationary correlation functions, finding new soft theorems that hold only in 2+1 dimensions. Expanding the correlation functions as a power series in the soft momentum q , these relations constrain the traceless part of the tensorial coefficient at each order in q in terms of a lower-point function. As a check, we verify that the O( q {sup 2}) identity is satisfied by inflationary correlation functions in the limit of small sound speed.

  5. Modeling inflation uncertainty in transition economies: The case of Russia and the former Soviet Republics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erkam Serkan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty in seven transitional economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine which experienced hyper-inflation until the mid-1990s. This linkage is investigated in the ARCH modeling framework by using both conventional Granger noncausality testing and the Holmes-Hutton approach, which has significant small- and large-sample power advantages over the former. The results support the Friedman- Ball hypothesis in Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. The Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis is favored in the Kyrgyz Republic and in the Russian Federation using a different model. In Azerbaijan, greater inflation uncertainty preceded lower rates of inflation, indicative of the strong monetary stabilization policies pursued in this economy.

  6. Bilateral Coordination Strategy of Supply Chain with Bidirectional Option Contracts under Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Wan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As far as the price increase and the demand contraction caused by inflation are concerned, we establish a Stackelberg game model that incorporates bidirectional option contracts and the effect of inflation and derive the optimal ordering and production policies on a one-period two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer. Through using the model of wholesale price contracts as the benchmark, we find that the introduction of bidirectional option contracts can benefit both the supplier and the retailer under inflation scenarios. Based on the conclusions drawn above, we design the bilateral coordination mechanism from the different perspective of two members involved and discuss how bidirectional option contracts should be set to achieve channel coordination under inflation scenarios. Through the sensitivity analysis, we illustrate the effect of inflation on the optimal decision variables and the optimal expected profits of the two parties with bidirectional option contracts.

  7. Does political instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation?: A panel data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aisen Ari

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society’s welfare. Furthermore studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a broad dataset covering over 100 countries for the period 1975-1997 and using dynamic and static panel data econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation levels and volatility. Not only does this paper advance the political economy literature establishing a relationship between inflation moments and political instability, but it also has important policy implications regarding the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

  8. Thermalized axion inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Ricardo Z.; Notari, Alessio, E-mail: rferreira@icc.ub.edu, E-mail: notari@ub.edu [Departament de Física Quàntica i Astrofísica i Institut de Ciències del Cosmos (ICCUB), Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès, 1, E-08028, Barcelona (Spain)

    2017-09-01

    We analyze the dynamics of inflationary models with a coupling of the inflaton φ to gauge fields of the form φ F F-tilde / f , as in the case of axions. It is known that this leads to an instability, with exponential amplification of gauge fields, controlled by the parameter ξ= φ-dot /(2 fH ), which can strongly affect the generation of cosmological perturbations and even the background. We show that scattering rates involving gauge fields can become larger than the expansion rate H , due to the very large occupation numbers, and create a thermal bath of particles of temperature T during inflation. In the thermal regime, energy is transferred to smaller scales, radically modifying the predictions of this scenario. We thus argue that previous constraints on ξ are alleviated. If the gauge fields have Standard Model interactions, which naturally provides reheating, they thermalize already at ξ∼>2.9, before perturbativity constraints and also before backreaction takes place. In absence of SM interactions (i.e. for a dark photon), we find that gauge fields and inflaton perturbations thermalize if ξ∼>3.4; however, observations require ξ∼>6, which is above the perturbativity and backreaction bounds and so a dedicated study is required. After thermalization, though, the system should evolve non-trivially due to the competition between the instability and the gauge field thermal mass. If the thermal mass and the instabilities equilibrate, we expect an equilibrium temperature of T {sub eq} ≅ ξ H / g-bar where g-bar is the effective gauge coupling. Finally, we estimate the spectrum of perturbations if φ is thermal and find that the tensor to scalar ratio is suppressed by H /(2 T ), if tensors do not thermalize.

  9. Upgrading inflatable door seals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sykes, T.M.; Metcalfe, R.; Welch, L.A.; Josefowich, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    Inflatable door seals are used for airlocks in CANDU stations. They have been a significant source of unreliability and maintenance cost. A program is underway to improve their performance and reliability, backed by environmental qualification testing. Only commercial products and suppliers existed in 1993. For historical reasons, these 'existing products' did not use the most durable material then available. In hindsight, neither had they been adapted nor optimized to combat conditions often experienced in the plants-sagging doors, damaged sealing surfaces, and many thousands of openings and closings per year. Initial attempts to involve the two existing suppliers in efforts to upgrade these seals were unsuccessful. Another suitable supplier had therefore to be found, and a 'new,' COG-owned seal developed; this was completed in 1997. This paper summarizes its testing, along with that of the two existing products. Resistance to aging has been improved significantly. Testing has shown that an accident can be safely withstood after 10 years of service or 40,000 openings-closings, whichever comes first. AECL's Fluid Sealing Technology Unit (FSTU) has invested in the special moulds, test fixtures and other necessary tooling and documentation required to begin commercial manufacture of this new quality product. Accordingly, as with FSTU's other nuclear products such as pump seals, the long-term supply of door seals to CANDU plants is now protected from many external uncertainties-e.g., commercial products being discontinued, materials being changed, companies going out of business. Manufacturing to AECL's detailed specifications is being subcontracted to the new supplier. FSTU is performing the quality surveillance, inspection, testing, and customer service activities concomitant with direct responsibility for supply to the plants. (author)

  10. Thermalized axion inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Ricardo Z.; Notari, Alessio

    2017-09-01

    We analyze the dynamics of inflationary models with a coupling of the inflaton phi to gauge fields of the form phi F tilde F/f, as in the case of axions. It is known that this leads to an instability, with exponential amplification of gauge fields, controlled by the parameter ξ= dot phi/(2fH), which can strongly affect the generation of cosmological perturbations and even the background. We show that scattering rates involving gauge fields can become larger than the expansion rate H, due to the very large occupation numbers, and create a thermal bath of particles of temperature T during inflation. In the thermal regime, energy is transferred to smaller scales, radically modifying the predictions of this scenario. We thus argue that previous constraints on ξ are alleviated. If the gauge fields have Standard Model interactions, which naturally provides reheating, they thermalize already at ξgtrsim2.9, before perturbativity constraints and also before backreaction takes place. In absence of SM interactions (i.e. for a dark photon), we find that gauge fields and inflaton perturbations thermalize if ξgtrsim3.4 however, observations require ξgtrsim6, which is above the perturbativity and backreaction bounds and so a dedicated study is required. After thermalization, though, the system should evolve non-trivially due to the competition between the instability and the gauge field thermal mass. If the thermal mass and the instabilities equilibrate, we expect an equilibrium temperature of Teq simeq ξ H/bar g where bar g is the effective gauge coupling. Finally, we estimate the spectrum of perturbations if phi is thermal and find that the tensor to scalar ratio is suppressed by H/(2T), if tensors do not thermalize.

  11. Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu

    2012-11-01

    We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field.

  12. Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field

  13. The scale of inflation in the landscape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A.

    2013-03-01

    We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r∝O(10 -3 ) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.

  14. Project Evaluation under Inflation Condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hindy, M.; El Missiry, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of inflation in capital budgeting and attempts to introduce solutions to such implication in order to make the appropriate decision for the firm' stockholders under these circumstances. Inflation leads to biasness in evaluating the investment projects, due to its impact on the cash flow, the discount rate, the initial investment cost, and the depreciation. This paper has shown that the capital budgeting process is not neutral with respect to inflation, as the output prices will raise as well as the operating and capital expenditures will also be adjusted due to inflation. In addition, it has shown that it is reasonable to expect that the cost of capital will increase as a result of an increase in the real interest rate, the inflation premium, and the cost of equity. Of critical importance is the basis used in calculating the annual depreciation which may lead to the transfer of wealth from the investment projects to the government and will result in underestimating the net present value of the investment projects, if these depreciation charges is calculated based upon the historical values and not on the replacement cost of the fixed assets

  15. Inflation in a closed universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratra, Bharat

    2017-11-01

    To derive a power spectrum for energy density inhomogeneities in a closed universe, we study a spatially-closed inflation-modified hot big bang model whose evolutionary history is divided into three epochs: an early slowly-rolling scalar field inflation epoch and the usual radiation and nonrelativistic matter epochs. (For our purposes it is not necessary to consider a final dark energy dominated epoch.) We derive general solutions of the relativistic linear perturbation equations in each epoch. The constants of integration in the inflation epoch solutions are determined from de Sitter invariant quantum-mechanical initial conditions in the Lorentzian section of the inflating closed de Sitter space derived from Hawking's prescription that the quantum state of the universe only include field configurations that are regular on the Euclidean (de Sitter) sphere section. The constants of integration in the radiation and matter epoch solutions are determined from joining conditions derived by requiring that the linear perturbation equations remain nonsingular at the transitions between epochs. The matter epoch power spectrum of gauge-invariant energy density inhomogeneities is not a power law, and depends on spatial wave number in the way expected for a generalization to the closed model of the standard flat-space scale-invariant power spectrum. The power spectrum we derive appears to differ from a number of other closed inflation model power spectra derived assuming different (presumably non de Sitter invariant) initial conditions.

  16. GRADE INFLATION: An Issue for Higher Education?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald L. CARUTH,

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Grade inflation impacts university credibility, student courses of study, choices of institution, and other areas. There has been an upward shift in grades without a corresponding upward shift in knowledge gained. Some of the most frequently mentioned causes of grade inflation are: Ø student evaluations of professors, Ø student teacher dynamics, Ø merit-based financial aid, and Ø student expectations. Ø Among the reasons for higher student grades on the part of professors are: Ø fear of student evaluations, Ø avoidance of bad relations with students, Ø below average teaching skills,Ø lack of experience, Ø a lack of clearly stated objectives, and Ø job security. While grades are not a perfect answer to assessing student performance in a course they are still the best answer we have for evaluating students. In order to evaluate students more accurately, universities must identify the problems in grading and grading practices. Once this is accomplished new practices can be designed and policies implemented.

  17. The physics of the relativistic counter-streaming instability that drives mass inflation inside black holes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, Andrew J.S.; Avelino, Pedro P.

    2010-01-01

    If you fall into a real astronomical black hole (choosing a supermassive black hole, to make sure that the tidal forces do not get you first), then you will probably meet your fate not at a central singularity, but rather in the exponentially growing, relativistic counter-streaming instability at the inner horizon first pointed out by Poisson and Israel (1990), who called it mass inflation. The chief purpose of this paper is to present a clear exposition of the physical cause and consequence of inflation in spherical, charged black holes. Inflation acts like a particle accelerator in that it accelerates cold ingoing and outgoing streams through each other to prodigiously high energies. Inflation feeds on itself: the acceleration is powered by the gravity produced by the streaming energy. The paper: (1) uses physical arguments to develop simple approximations that follow the evolution of inflation from ignition, through inflation itself, to collapse; (2) confirms that the simple approximations capture accurately the results of fully nonlinear one- and two-fluid self-similar models; (3) demonstrates that, counter-intuitively, the smaller the accretion rate, the more rapidly inflation exponentiates; (4) shows that in single perfect fluid models, inflation occurs only if the sound speed equals the speed of light, supporting the physical idea that inflation in single fluids is driven by relativistic counter-streaming of waves; (5) shows that what happens during inflation up to the Planck curvature depends not on the distant past or future, but rather on events happening only a few hundred black hole crossing times into the past or future; (6) shows that, if quantum gravity does not intervene, then the generic end result of inflation is not a general relativistic null singularity, but rather a spacelike singularity at zero radius.

  18. Dark energy in hybrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong, Jinn-Ouk; Kim, Seongcheol

    2007-01-01

    The situation that a scalar field provides the source of the accelerated expansion of the Universe while rolling down its potential is common in both the simple models of the primordial inflation and the quintessence-based dark energy models. Motivated by this point, we address the possibility of causing the current acceleration via the primordial inflation using a simple model based on hybrid inflation. We trigger the onset of the motion of the quintessence field via the waterfall field, and find that the fate of the Universe depends on the true vacuum energy determined by choosing the parameters. We also briefly discuss the variation of the equation of state and the possible implementation of our scenario in supersymmetric theories

  19. Chameleon field dynamics during inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Nasim; Farhoudi, Mehrdad

    By studying the chameleon model during inflation, we investigate whether it can be a successful inflationary model, wherein we employ the common typical potential usually used in the literature. Thus, in the context of the slow-roll approximations, we obtain the e-folding number for the model to verify the ability of resolving the problems of standard big bang cosmology. Meanwhile, we apply the constraints on the form of the chosen potential and also on the equation of state parameter coupled to the scalar field. However, the results of the present analysis show that there is not much chance of having the chameleonic inflation. Hence, we suggest that if through some mechanism the chameleon model can be reduced to the standard inflationary model, then it may cover the whole era of the universe from the inflation up to the late time.

  20. Higgs inflation as a mirage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbón, J.L.F.; Casas, J.A. [IFT-UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,C/Nicolás Cabrera 13, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Elias-Miró, J. [Departament de Física/IFAE, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,Edifici Cn, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Espinosa, J.R. [ICREA/IFAE, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,Edifici Cn, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain)

    2015-09-04

    We discuss a simple unitarization of Higgs inflation that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Despite not being dominated by the Higgs field, inflationary dynamics simulates the ‘Higgs inflation’ one would get by blind extrapolation of the low-energy effective Lagrangian, at least qualitatively. Hence, Higgs inflation arises as an approximate ‘mirage’ picture of the true dynamics. We further speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.

  1. Inflation in random Gaussian landscapes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masoumi, Ali; Vilenkin, Alexander; Yamada, Masaki, E-mail: ali@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: Masaki.Yamada@tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States)

    2017-05-01

    We develop analytic and numerical techniques for studying the statistics of slow-roll inflation in random Gaussian landscapes. As an illustration of these techniques, we analyze small-field inflation in a one-dimensional landscape. We calculate the probability distributions for the maximal number of e-folds and for the spectral index of density fluctuations n {sub s} and its running α {sub s} . These distributions have a universal form, insensitive to the correlation function of the Gaussian ensemble. We outline possible extensions of our methods to a large number of fields and to models of large-field inflation. These methods do not suffer from potential inconsistencies inherent in the Brownian motion technique, which has been used in most of the earlier treatments.

  2. Individual differences in imagination inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaps, C; Nash, M

    1999-06-01

    Garry, Manning, Loftus, and Sherman (1996) found that when adult subjects imagined childhood events, these events were subsequentlyjudged as more likely to have occurred than were not-imagined events. The authors termed this effect imagination inflation. We replicated the effect, using a novel set of Life Events Inventory events. Further, we tested whether the effect is related to four subject characteristics possibly associated with false memory creation. The extent to which subjects inflated judged likelihood following imagined events was associated with indices of hypnotic suggestibility and dissociativity, but not with vividness of imagery or interrogative suggestibility. Results suggest that imagination plays a role in subsequent likelihood judgments regarding childhood events, and that some individuals are more likely than others to experience imagination inflation.

  3. Supernatural A-Term Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chia-Min; Cheung, Kingman

    Following Ref. 10, we explore the parameter space of the case when the supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking scale is lower, for example, in gauge mediated SUSY breaking model. During inflation, the form of the potential is V0 plus MSSM (or A-term) inflation. We show that the model works for a wide range of the potential V0 with the soft SUSY breaking mass m O(1) TeV. The implication to MSSM (or A-term) inflation is that the flat directions which is lifted by the non-renormalizable terms described by the superpotential W=λ p φ p-1/Mp-3 P with p = 4 and p = 5 are also suitable to be an inflaton field for λp = O(1) provided there is an additional false vacuum term V0 with appropriate magnitude. The flat directions correspond to p = 6 also works for 0 < ˜ V0/M_ P4 < ˜ 10-40.

  4. Partially massless fields during inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Daniel; Goon, Garrett; Lee, Hayden; Pimentel, Guilherme L.

    2018-04-01

    The representation theory of de Sitter space allows for a category of partially massless particles which have no flat space analog, but could have existed during inflation. We study the couplings of these exotic particles to inflationary perturbations and determine the resulting signatures in cosmological correlators. When inflationary perturbations interact through the exchange of these fields, their correlation functions inherit scalings that cannot be mimicked by extra massive fields. We discuss in detail the squeezed limit of the tensor-scalar-scalar bispectrum, and show that certain partially massless fields can violate the tensor consistency relation of single-field inflation. We also consider the collapsed limit of the scalar trispectrum, and find that the exchange of partially massless fields enhances its magnitude, while giving no contribution to the scalar bispectrum. These characteristic signatures provide clean detection channels for partially massless fields during inflation.

  5. Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Glenn Research Center awarded Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts to ManTech SRS Technologies, of Newport Beach, California, to develop thin film inflatable antennas for space communication. With additional funding, SRS modified the concepts for ground-based inflatable antennas. GATR (Ground Antenna Transmit and Receive) Technologies, of Huntsville, Alabama, licensed the technology and refined it to become the world s first inflatable antenna certified by the Federal Communications Commission. Capable of providing Internet access, voice over Internet protocol, e-mail, video teleconferencing, broadcast television, and other high-bandwidth communications, the systems have provided communication during the wildfires in California, after Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi, and following the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

  6. Higgs inflation as a mirage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbón, J.L.F.; Casas, J.A.; Elias-Miró, J.; Espinosa, J.R.

    2015-01-01

    We discuss a simple unitarization of Higgs inflation that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Despite not being dominated by the Higgs field, inflationary dynamics simulates the ‘Higgs inflation’ one would get by blind extrapolation of the low-energy effective Lagrangian, at least qualitatively. Hence, Higgs inflation arises as an approximate ‘mirage’ picture of the true dynamics. We further speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.

  7. Scalar-tensor linear inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artymowski, Michał [Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 11, 30-348 Kraków (Poland); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: Michal.Artymowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: Antonio.Racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2017-04-01

    We investigate two approaches to non-minimally coupled gravity theories which present linear inflation as attractor solution: a) the scalar-tensor theory approach, where we look for a scalar-tensor theory that would restore results of linear inflation in the strong coupling limit for a non-minimal coupling to gravity of the form of f (φ) R /2; b) the particle physics approach, where we motivate the form of the Jordan frame potential by loop corrections to the inflaton field. In both cases the Jordan frame potentials are modifications of the induced gravity inflationary scenario, but instead of the Starobinsky attractor they lead to linear inflation in the strong coupling limit.

  8. Simple types of anisotropic inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrow, John D.; Hervik, Sigbjoern

    2010-01-01

    We display some simple cosmological solutions of gravity theories with quadratic Ricci curvature terms added to the Einstein-Hilbert Lagrangian which exhibit anisotropic inflation. The Hubble expansion rates are constant and unequal in three orthogonal directions. We describe the evolution of the simplest of these homogeneous and anisotropic cosmological models from its natural initial state and evaluate the deviations they will create from statistical isotropy in the fluctuations produced during a period of anisotropic inflation. The anisotropic inflation is not a late-time attractor in these models but the rate of approach to a final isotropic de Sitter state is slow and is conducive to the creation of observable anisotropic statistical effects in the microwave background. The statistical anisotropy would not be scale invariant and the level of statistical anisotropy will grow with scale.

  9. Inflation with light Weyl ghost

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tokareva Anna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Inflationary perturbations are considered in a renormalizable but non-unitary theory of gravity with the additional Weyl term. We obtained that ghost degrees of freedom do not spoil the inflation and the scalar perturbation amplitude at the linear level even in a case of the ghost with mass smaller than Hubble parameter at inflation. The ghost impact to the observables is also estimated to be negligible for the range of masses allowed by the experiment. The non-linear level of the theory and its possible application are also discussed.

  10. SU(N,1) inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.; Enqvist, K.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Olive, K.A.; Srednicki, M.

    1985-01-01

    We present a simple model for primordial inflation in the context of SU(N, 1) no-scale n=1 supergravity. Because the model at zero temperature very closely resembles global supersymmetry, minima with negative cosmological constants do not exist, and it is easy to have a long inflationary epoch while keeping density perturbations of the right magnitude and satisfying other cosmological constraints. We pay specific attention to satisfying the thermal constraint for inflation, i.e. the existence of a high temperature minimum at the origin. (orig.)

  11. QED vacuum loops and inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fried, H.M. [Brown University, Department of Physics, Providence, RI (United States); Gabellini, Y. [UMR 6618 CNRS, Institut Non Lineaire de Nice, Valbonne (France)

    2015-03-01

    A QED-based model of a new version of vacuum energy has recently been suggested, which leads to a simple, finite, one parameter representation of dark energy. An elementary, obvious, but perhaps radical generalization is then able to describe both dark energy and inflation in the same framework of vacuum energy. One further, obvious generalization then leads to a relation between inflation and the big bang, to the automatic inclusion of dark matter, and to a possible understanding of the birth (and death) of a universe. (orig.)

  12. QED vacuum loops and inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fried, H.M.; Gabellini, Y.

    2015-01-01

    A QED-based model of a new version of vacuum energy has recently been suggested, which leads to a simple, finite, one parameter representation of dark energy. An elementary, obvious, but perhaps radical generalization is then able to describe both dark energy and inflation in the same framework of vacuum energy. One further, obvious generalization then leads to a relation between inflation and the big bang, to the automatic inclusion of dark matter, and to a possible understanding of the birth (and death) of a universe. (orig.)

  13. Large inflated-antenna system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinson, W. F.; Keafer, L. S.

    1984-01-01

    It is proposed that for inflatable antenna systems, technology feasibility can be demonstrated and parametric design and scalability (scale factor 10 to 20) can be validated with an experiment using a 16-m-diameter antenna attached to the Shuttle. The antenna configuration consists of a thin film cone and paraboloid held to proper shape by internal pressure and a self-rigidizing torus. The cone and paraboloid would be made using pie-shaped gores with the paraboloid being coated with aluminum to provide reflectivity. The torus would be constructed using an aluminum polyester composite that when inflated would erect to a smooth shell that can withstand loads without internal pressure.

  14. Ten years of inflation targeting in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bungin Sanja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Monetary strategy of inflation targeting in Serbia was unofficially introduced in September 2006. The National Bank of Serbia has faced the numerous challenges that are typical for transition countries which apply the same strategy. At the start of inflation targeting, inflation was reduced to a single-digit number, which characterises most other countries. However, the volatility of inflation during the implementation of the strategy has been extremely high, mainly caused by the changes of processed and unprocessed food prices. Moreover, for a country with a high degree of euroisation, such as Serbia, the exchange rate plays an important role in the movement of inflation. Controlling the trends of the exchange rate in order to maintain the stability of inflation is contrary to the assumptions of inflation targeting. However, it can be concluded that despite all the obstacles faced by the NBS, inflation targeting is the optimal choice of a monetary strategy.

  15. Inflation and the theory of cosmological perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riotto, A.

    2003-01-01

    These lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to inflation and the theory of cosmological perturbations generated during inflation which are thought to be the origin of structure in the universe. (author)

  16. Air Tight: Building Inflatables/Inflatable Construction: Planning and Details

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.

    2016-01-01

    A design-build seminar consisting of students from Physics, Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Robotic, Material Science, Art, and Architecture who will work together on a deployable "closed-loop" inflatable greenhouse for Mars in theory, and an Earth analogue physical mockup on campus.

  17. What is the Globalisation of Inflation?

    OpenAIRE

    Altansukh, Gantungalag; Becker, Ralf; Bratsiotis, George J.; Osborn, Denise R.

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies the globalisation of CPI inflation by analysing core, energy and food components, testing for structural breaks in the relationships between domestic inflation and a corresponding country-specific foreign inflation series at the monthly frequency for OECD countries.The iterative methodology employed separates coefficient and variance breaks, while also taking account of outliers. We find that the overall pattern of globalisation in aggregate inflation is largely driven by c...

  18. The great moderation of inflation: a structural analysis of recent U.S. monetary business cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús

    2012-01-01

    U.S. inflation has experienced a great moderation in the last two decades. This paper examines the factors behind this and other stylized facts, such as the weaker correlation of inflation and nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). Our findings point at lower exogenous variability of supply-side shocks and, to a lower extent, structural changes in money demand, monetary policy, and firms’ sticky pricing behavior as the main driving forces of the changes observed in recent U.S. business cycle...

  19. [The social marketing models and policy advices for HIV rapid testing initiated by non-govermental organization].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, H; Cai, L P; Xue, H; Zhao, Y; Wu, D; Zhang, D P; Yin, W Y; Sun, J P

    2016-10-06

    Currently, a growing number of community-based organizations are providing rapid HIV testing service in various forms, some people with specific needs also purchase HIV rapid test papers through online sales channels, those imply that the demand of HIV self-test is in increasing year by year.In this paper, aims to understand the current situation of HIV rapid test led by CBOs and the approach, strategies and results of social marketing by means of expert interviews and site visits. Hope to illustrate the current situation, and make recommendations for future work.

  20. A Growth Model of Inflation, Tax Evasion and Financial Repression

    OpenAIRE

    Roubini, Nouriel; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier

    1992-01-01

    In this paper we study the effects of policies of financial repression on long term growth and try to explain why optimizing governments might want to repress the financial sector. We also explain why inflation may be negatively related to growth, even though it does not affect growth directly. We argue that the main reason why governments repress the financial sector is that this sector is the source of "easy" resources for the public budget The source of revenue stemming from this intervent...

  1. Inflation and Failure of Polymeric Membranes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hassager, Ole; Neergaard, Jesper

    2000-01-01

    We consider the inflation of an axisymmetric polymeric membrane.Some membranes composed of viscoelastic materialsdescribed by a Mooney-Rivlin model show a monotone increasingpressure during inflation. These materialsdevelop a homogeneous membrane thickness in agreement with the Considere...... is found to stabilize the inflated polymer membrane....

  2. 12 CFR 1780.80 - Inflation adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 1780.80 Section 1780.80... DEVELOPMENT RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 1780.80 Inflation adjustments. The maximum amount of each civil money penalty within OFHEO's...

  3. Does Education Corrupt? Theories of Grade Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleinik, Anton

    2009-01-01

    Several theories of grade inflation are discussed in this review article. It is argued that grade inflation results from the substitution of criteria specific to the search for truth by criteria of quality control generated outside of academia. Particular mechanisms of the grade inflation that occurs when a university is transformed into a…

  4. Inflation as de Sitter instability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadoni, Mariano; Franzin, Edgardo [Universita di Cagliari, Cittadella Universitaria, Dipartimento di Fisica, Monserrato (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Cagliari, Monserrato (Italy); Mignemi, Salvatore [INFN, Sezione di Cagliari, Monserrato (Italy); Universita di Cagliari, Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Cagliari (Italy)

    2016-09-15

    We consider cosmological inflation generated by a scalar field slowly rolling off from a de Sitter maximum of its potential. The models belong to the class of hilltop models and represent the most general model of this kind in which the scalar potential can be written as the sum of two exponentials. The minimally coupled Einstein-scalar gravity theory obtained in this way is the cosmological version of a two-scale generalization of known holographic models, allowing for solitonic solutions interpolating between an AdS spacetime in the infrared and scaling solutions in the ultraviolet. We then investigate cosmological inflation in the slow-roll approximation. Our model reproduces correctly, for a wide range of its parameters, the most recent experimental data for the power spectrum of primordial perturbations. Moreover, it predicts inflation at energy scales of four to five orders of magnitude below the Planck scale. At the onset of inflation, the mass of the tachyonic excitation, i.e. of the inflaton, turns out to be seven to eight orders of magnitude smaller than the Planck mass. (orig.)

  5. Davis Meeting on Cosmic Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Kaloper, N; Knox, L; Cosmic Inflation

    2003-01-01

    The Davis Meeting on Cosmic Inflation marked an exciting milestone on the road to precision cosmology. This is the index page for the proceedings of the conference. Individual proceedings contributions, when they appear on this archive, are linked from this page.

  6. How are inflation targets set?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, R.; Matějů, Jakub

    -, č. 426 (2010), s. 1-35 ISSN 1211-3298 Grant - others:MŠk(CZ) SVV-2010-261801 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : inflation targeting * central bank * credibility Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp426.pdf

  7. Inflation,Inflation Variability, and Output Performance. Venezuela 1951-2002

    OpenAIRE

    Olivo, Victor

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the relationship between the level of inflation, inflation variability, and output performance in the Venezuelan economy for the period 1951-2002. The paper examines the mechanism through which higher inflation translates into lower non-oil real GDP growth. We find empirical evidence that supports Friedman's (1977) contention that higher inflation produces more inflation volatility /uncertainty that leads to relative price variability that in turn, is harmful for the prope...

  8. Estimating core inflation : the role of oil price shocks and imported inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane

    1997-01-01

    This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that ...

  9. Recent Inflation of Kilauea Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miklius, A.; Poland, M.; Desmarais, E.; Sutton, A.; Orr, T.; Okubo, P.

    2006-12-01

    Over the last three years, geodetic monitoring networks and satellite radar interferometry have recorded substantial inflation of Kilauea's magma system, while the Pu`u `O`o eruption on the east rift zone has continued unabated. Combined with the approximate doubling of carbon dioxide emission rates at the summit during this period, these observations indicate that the magma supply rate to the volcano has increased. Since late 2003, the summit area has risen over 20 cm, and a 2.5 km-long GPS baseline across the summit area has extended almost half a meter. The center of inflation has been variable, with maximum uplift shifting from an area near the center of the caldera to the southeastern part of the caldera in 2004-2005. In 2006, the locus of inflation shifted again, to the location of the long-term magma reservoir in the southern part of the caldera - the same area that had subsided more than 1.5 meters during the last 23 years of the ongoing eruption. In addition, the southwest rift zone reversed its long-term trend of subsidence and began uplifting in early 2006. The east rift zone has shown slightly accelerated rates of extension, but with a year-long hiatus following the January 2005 south flank aseismic slip event. Inflation rates have varied greatly. Accelerated rates of extension and uplift in early 2005 and 2006 were also associated with increased seismicity. Seismicity occurred not only at inflation centers, but was also triggered on the normal faulting area northwest of the caldera and the strike-slip faulting area in the upper east rift zone. In early 2006, at about the time that we started recording uplift on the southwest rift zone, the rate of earthquakes extending from the summit into the southwest rift zone at least quadrupled. The most recent previous episode of inflation at Kilauea, in 2002, may have resulted from reduced lava- transport capacity, as it was associated with decreased outflow at the eruption site. In contrast, eruption volumes

  10. 76 FR 79545 - Cost Accounting Standards: Change to the CAS Applicability Threshold for the Inflation Adjustment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-22

    ... Cost Accounting Standards: Change to the CAS Applicability Threshold for the Inflation Adjustment to... Federal Procurement Policy, Cost Accounting Standards Board. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Office of Federal Procurement Policy (OFPP), Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) Board (Board), has adopted, without...

  11. Mathematical issues in eternal inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh Kohli, Ikjyot; Haslam, Michael C.

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we consider the problem of the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the Einstein field equations for a spatially flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker universe in the context of stochastic eternal inflation, where the stochastic mechanism is modelled by adding a stochastic forcing term representing Gaussian white noise to the Klein-Gordon equation. We show that under these considerations, the Klein-Gordon equation actually becomes a stochastic differential equation. Therefore, the existence and uniqueness of solutions to Einstein’s equations depend on whether the coefficients of this stochastic differential equation obey Lipschitz continuity conditions. We show that for any choice of V(φ ), the Einstein field equations are not globally well-posed, hence, any solution found to these equations is not guaranteed to be unique. Instead, the coefficients are at best locally Lipschitz continuous in the physical state space of the dynamical variables, which only exist up to a finite explosion time. We further perform Feller’s explosion test for an arbitrary power-law inflaton potential and prove that all solutions to the Einstein field equations explode in a finite time with probability one. This implies that the mechanism of stochastic inflation thus considered cannot be described to be eternal, since the very concept of eternal inflation implies that the process continues indefinitely. We therefore argue that stochastic inflation based on a stochastic forcing term would not produce an infinite number of universes in some multiverse ensemble. In general, since the Einstein field equations in both situations are not well-posed, we further conclude that the existence of a multiverse via the stochastic eternal inflation mechanism considered in this paper is still very much an open question that will require much deeper investigation.

  12. Rapid turns in European renewable energy policy: advocacy and framing of the proposed trading of guarantees of origin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Maans; Nilsson, Lars J.; Ericsson, Karin

    2008-10-15

    The EU has assumed ambitious targets and strategies for the promotion of renewable sources of energy (RES) binding to all its member states. This report sets out to examine the proposed EU-wide policy instrument designed to help achieve the targets on renewable electricity and heat - the trading of Guarantees of Origin (GO). It analyses the fate of the GO trading proposal in the European policy-making machinery during 2007 and 2008. It first discusses its origins, key components and points of contention, and then examines key factors behind the policy development leading first to its development and subsequently to its abandonment in 2008. Addressing these factors, the report explores first the near-term policy-making process before and after the proposal on GO trading was tabled in January 2008, focusing on processes in the European bureaucracy and how they were influenced by different interest groups and member state governments. It then takes a step back and looks at how competing policy frames over time have shaped the GO instrument debate. Results show how a strong internal market frame acted as a primary driving force in the Commission throughout the 2000s to promote the GO trading instrument. The subsequent collapse of the GO trading proposal can be largely attributed to a) the lack of a strong lobby in favour of GO, b) the accumulated experience with and institutionalisation of national RES support policy, and c) growing general political concerns for supply security, innovation and competitiveness. In the end, the fall of the GO trading instrument is indicative of how the underlying political battle line between advocates of the European internal market and guardians of national interests has moved in favour of the latter in recent years. (author). refs

  13. Curvaton and the inhomogeneous end of inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assadullahi, Hooshyar; Wands, David; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein

    2012-01-01

    We study the primordial density perturbations and non-Gaussianities generated from the combined effects of an inhomogeneous end of inflation and curvaton decay in hybrid inflation. This dual role is played by a single isocurvature field which is massless during inflation but acquire a mass at the end of inflation via the waterfall phase transition. We calculate the resulting primordial non-Gaussianity characterized by the non-linearity parameter, f NL , recovering the usual end-of-inflation result when the field decays promptly and the usual curvaton result if the field decays sufficiently late

  14. A smooth exit from eternal inflation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawking, S. W.; Hertog, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    The usual theory of inflation breaks down in eternal inflation. We derive a dual description of eternal inflation in terms of a deformed Euclidean CFT located at the threshold of eternal inflation. The partition function gives the amplitude of different geometries of the threshold surface in the no-boundary state. Its local and global behavior in dual toy models shows that the amplitude is low for surfaces which are not nearly conformal to the round three-sphere and essentially zero for surfaces with negative curvature. Based on this we conjecture that the exit from eternal inflation does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth.

  15. Pre-inflation physics and scalar perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirai, Shiro

    2005-01-01

    The effect of pre-inflation physics on the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is investigated. Considering various pre-inflation models with radiation-dominated or matter-dominated periods before inflation, the power spectra of curvature perturbations for large scales are calculated, and the spectral index and running spectral index are derived. It is shown that pre-inflation models in which the length of inflation is near 60 e-folds may reproduce some key properties implied by the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe data

  16. Fast or Slow Rescue Ventilations: A Predictive Model of Gastric Inflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitz-Clarke, John R

    2018-05-01

    Rescue ventilations are given during respiratory and cardiac arrest. Tidal volume must assure oxygen delivery; however, excessive pressure applied to an unprotected airway can cause gastric inflation, regurgitation, and pulmonary aspiration. The optimal technique provides mouth pressure and breath duration that minimize gastric inflation. It remains unclear if breath delivery should be fast or slow, and how inflation time affects the division of gas flow between the lungs and esophagus. A physiological model was used to predict and compare rates of gastric inflation and to determine ideal ventilation duration. Gas flow equations were based on standard pulmonary physiology. Gastric inflation was assumed to occur whenever mouth pressure exceeded lower esophageal sphincter pressure. Mouth pressure profiles that approximated mouth-to-mouth ventilation and bag-valve-mask ventilation were investigated. Target tidal volumes were set to 0.6 and 1.0 L. Compliance and airway resistance were varied. Rapid breaths shorter than 1 s required high mouth pressures, up to 25 cm H 2 O to achieve the target lung volume, which thus promotes gastric inflation. Slow breaths longer than 1 s permitted lower mouth pressures but increased time over which airway pressure exceeded lower esophageal sphincter pressure. The gastric volume increased with breath durations that exceeded 1 s for both mouth pressure profiles. Breath duration of ∼1.0 s caused the least gastric inflation in most scenarios. Very low esophageal sphincter pressure favored a shift toward 0.5 s. High resistance and low compliance each increased gastric inflation and altered ideal breath times. The model illustrated a general theory of optimal rescue ventilation. Breath duration with an unprotected airway should be 1 s to minimize gastric inflation. Short pressure-driven and long duration-driven gastric inflation regimens provide a unifying explanation for results in past studies. Copyright © 2018 by Daedalus Enterprises.

  17. Kähler-driven tribrid inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David

    2012-11-01

    We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kähler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in "pseudosmooth" tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kähler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and "pseudosmooth") regimes.

  18. Inflation, Reionization, and All That: The Primordial Inflation Explorer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogut, Alan J.

    2012-01-01

    The Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class mission to measure the gravity-wave signature of primordial inflation through its distinctive imprint on the linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background. PIXIE uses an innovative optical design to achieve background-limited sensitivity in 400 spectral channels spanning 2.5 decades in frequency from 30 GHz to 6 THz (1 cm to 50 micron wavelength). The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r < 10(exp -3) at 5 standard deviations. The rich PIXIE data set will also constrain physical processes ranging from Big Bang cosmology to the nature of the first stars to physical conditions within the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. I describe the PIXIE instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the inflationary signature using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.

  19. Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nastari, Plinio Mario

    1993-01-01

    The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country

  20. Situation of Linkage between Sexual and Reproductive Health and HIV-Related Policies in Islamic Republic of Iran – A Rapid Assessment in 2011–2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghobad Moradi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The number of sexual transmission of HIV is increasing globally. Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH issues and HIV/AIDS related problems are rooted in common grounds such as poverty, gender inequality, and social exclusion. As a result, international health organizations have suggested the integration of SRH services with HIV/AIDS services as a strategy to control HIV and to improve people’s access to SRH services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between reproductive health and HIV/AIDS services at policy-making level in Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI. This study was conducted in 2011–2 and was a rapid assessment based on guidelines provided by the World Health Organization (WHO, United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS, Family Health International Association, and some other international organizations. In this rapid assessment we used different methods such as a review of literature and documents, visiting and interviewing professionals and experts in family health and HIV/AIDS programs, and experts working in some NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs. Overall, based on the results obtained in this study, in most cases there was not much linkage between HIV/AIDS policies and SRH policies in Iran. Since integration of HIV/AIDS services and SRH services is recommended as a model and an appropriate response to HIV epidemics worldwide, likewise to control the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Iran it is required to integrate HIV/AIDS and SRH services at all levels, particularly at the policy-making level.

  1. Design of Soil Salinity Policies with Tinamit, a Flexible and Rapid Tool to Couple Stakeholder-Built System Dynamics Models with Physically-Based Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Adamowski, J. F.; Tuy, H.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.

    2016-12-01

    Model coupling is a crucial step to constructing many environmental models, as it allows for the integration of independently-built models representing different system sub-components to simulate the entire system. Model coupling has been of particular interest in combining socioeconomic System Dynamics (SD) models, whose visual interface facilitates their direct use by stakeholders, with more complex physically-based models of the environmental system. However, model coupling processes are often cumbersome and inflexible and require extensive programming knowledge, limiting their potential for continued use by stakeholders in policy design and analysis after the end of the project. Here, we present Tinamit, a flexible Python-based model-coupling software tool whose easy-to-use API and graphical user interface make the coupling of stakeholder-built SD models with physically-based models rapid, flexible and simple for users with limited to no coding knowledge. The flexibility of the system allows end users to modify the SD model as well as the linking variables between the two models themselves with no need for recoding. We use Tinamit to couple a stakeholder-built socioeconomic model of soil salinization in Pakistan with the physically-based soil salinity model SAHYSMOD. As climate extremes increase in the region, policies to slow or reverse soil salinity buildup are increasing in urgency and must take both socioeconomic and biophysical spheres into account. We use the Tinamit-coupled model to test the impact of integrated policy options (economic and regulatory incentives to farmers) on soil salinity in the region in the face of future climate change scenarios. Use of the Tinamit model allowed for rapid and flexible coupling of the two models, allowing the end user to continue making model structure and policy changes. In addition, the clear interface (in contrast to most model coupling code) makes the final coupled model easily accessible to stakeholders with

  2. An Autoregressive and Distributed Lag Model Approach to Inflation in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study scrutinized the precursors of Inflation in Nigeria between the periods 1980 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was engaged to test for stationarity of the variables while the Autoregressive and Distributed lag (ARDL Model was applied to capture the affiliation between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables. Our findings revealed that there exists a long run relationship between Inflation, money supply, interest rate, GDP per capita and exchange rate in Nigeria while in the short run, money supply has a significant positive one period lag effect on Inflation and Interest Rate also has a significant negative one period lag influence on Inflation in Nigeria. Recommendations are that in the short run, monetary policies should be geared towards the control of money supply and interest rate in Nigeria in other to regulate Inflation and also, the Nigerian economy can afford to vary any of human capital development or technological advancement to boost productivity without causing inflation as GDP per capita proved insignificant in the short run.

  3. THE HYBRID APPROACH OF INFLATION TARGETING: WHAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN EMERGING ECONOMY LIKE TUNISIA?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hella Guerchi Mehri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available After economic crises happening in many emerging countries, flexible exchange rates became a required theoretical condition helping to target inflation. Many countries stopped using exchange rate as an anchor for monetary policy and started using inflation targeting framework. In emerging countries, monetary authorities work to stabilize the exchange rate because of their “fear of floating”. They are against high volatility of interest rate allowing speculative attacks and causing free fluctuations of their national currency. To avoid uncontrolled market movements, they have to choose between active and public exchange rate management and tight inflation targeting. In the same vein, Central bank of Tunisia follows financial measures linked closely to inflation without focusing especially on monetary aggregates in order to study a possible transition to targeting inflation strategy. It uses a simple Taylor rule where interest rates adjustment are guided by the anticipated inflation deviation from its original target and also by the gap between observed and potential GDP.As an emerging economy with a high degree of financial vulnerability, and facing different shocks, Tunisia should adopt a hybrid rule of inflation targeting in an open economy. This hybrid rule explicitly takes into account the evolution of the exchange rate in the reaction function of the central bank.

  4. The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radukić Snežana

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.

  5. Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Thailand using annual dataset during 1990 and 2015. The threshold model is estimated for different levels of threshold inflation rate. The results suggest that the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slow growth is estimated at 3 percent. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is apparent above this threshold level of inflation. In other words, the inflation rat...

  6. Permutation on hybrid natural inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carone, Christopher D.; Erlich, Joshua; Ramos, Raymundo; Sher, Marc

    2014-09-01

    We analyze a model of hybrid natural inflation based on the smallest non-Abelian discrete group S3. Leading invariant terms in the scalar potential have an accidental global symmetry that is spontaneously broken, providing a pseudo-Goldstone boson that is identified as the inflaton. The S3 symmetry restricts both the form of the inflaton potential and the couplings of the inflaton field to the waterfall fields responsible for the end of inflation. We identify viable points in the model parameter space. Although the power in tensor modes is small in most of the parameter space of the model, we identify parameter choices that yield potentially observable values of r without super-Planckian initial values of the inflaton field.

  7. Hybrid inflation along waterfall trajectories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clesse, Sebastien

    2011-01-01

    We identify a new inflationary regime for which more than 60 e-folds are generated classically during the waterfall phase occurring after the usual hybrid inflation. By performing a Bayesian Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain analysis, this scenario is shown to take place in a large part of the parameter space of the model. When this occurs, the observable perturbation modes leave the Hubble radius during waterfall inflation. The power spectrum of adiabatic perturbations is red, possibly in agreement with CMB constraints. Particular attention has been given to study only the regions for which quantum backreactions do not affect the classical dynamics. Implications concerning the preheating and the absence of topological defects in our Universe are discussed.

  8. UV-extending Ghost Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanov, Mikhail M

    2014-01-01

    We present a setup that provides a partial UV-completion of the ghost inflation model up to a scale which can be almost as high as the Planck mass. This is achieved by coupling the inflaton to the Lorentz-violating sector described by the Einstein-aether theory or its khronometric version. Compared to previous works on ghost inflation our setup allows to go beyond the study of small perturbations and include the background dynamics in a unified framework. In the specific regime when the expansion of the Universe is dominated by the kinetic energy of the inflaton we find that the model predicts rather high tensor-to-scalar ratio r ~ 0.02 $\\div$ 0.2 and non-Gaussianity of equilateral type with f_NL in the range from -50 to -5.

  9. Cybersecurity Risks: Are They Inflated?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Chrapavy

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available With various views being posed on cybersecurity, this paper examines the proposition that cybersecurity risks are inflated. Due to the complexity of the cybersecurity environment, the risks will be dichotomised into two distinct categories—those posed by cybercrime, and those classified as cyber-warfare. In relation to cyber-crime, the paper examines the rise of cyber-crime, its costs, and the views of these factors by “alarmists” and “sceptics.” In relation to cyber-war, the paper sets aside the emotive issue of the consequences and focuses on the likelihood of a catastrophic attack. The paper concludes that the risk of cyber-crime is real, but the sometimes mooted existential threat poses by cyber-war is inflated. The paper argues that it is important for cyber defences to improve in line with the risks, and to do this, researchers need to work across both categories of cybersecurity.

  10. Inflation from periodic extra dimensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higaki, Tetsutaro [Department of Physics, Keio University, Kanagawa 223-8522 (Japan); Tatsuta, Yoshiyuki, E-mail: thigaki@rk.phys.keio.ac.jp, E-mail: y_tatsuta@akane.waseda.jp [Department of Physics, Waseda University, Tokyo 169-8555 (Japan)

    2017-07-01

    We discuss a realization of a small field inflation based on string inspired supergravities. In theories accompanying extra dimensions, compactification of them with small radii is required for realistic situations. Since the extra dimension can have a periodicity, there will appear (quasi-)periodic functions under transformations of moduli of the extra dimensions in low energy scales. Such a periodic property can lead to a UV completion of so-called multi-natural inflation model where inflaton potential consists of a sum of multiple sinusoidal functions with a decay constant smaller than the Planck scale. As an illustration, we construct a SUSY breaking model, and then show that such an inflaton potential can be generated by a sum of world sheet instantons in intersecting brane models on extra dimensions containing orbifold. We show also predictions of cosmic observables by numerical analyzes.

  11. Inflation with generalized initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, A.; Brandenberger, R.; Matzner, R.

    1987-01-01

    In many current models of the early Universe a scalar field phi which is only very weakly coupled to other quantum fields is used to generate inflation. In such models there are no forces which could thermalize the scalar field, and previous assumptions about its preinflation ''initial'' conditions must be abandoned. In this paper the onset of inflation is studied classically for more general initial conditions of the scalar field configuration. In particular, initial conditions with a nonvanishing spatial average of phi, with phi chosen at random in each initial horizon volume, and with random initial momenta are considered. We identify and discuss several mechanisms that can drive these more general initial conditions toward an inflationary state. The analysis is done in one spatial dimension

  12. Hybrid inflation exit through tunneling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garbrecht, Bjoern; Konstandin, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    For hybrid inflationary potentials, we derive the tunneling rate from field configurations along the flat direction towards the waterfall regime. This process competes with the classically rolling evolution of the scalar fields and needs to be strongly subdominant for phenomenologically viable models. Tunneling may exclude models with a mass scale below 10 12 GeV, but can be suppressed by small values of the coupling constants. We find that tunneling is negligible for those models, which do not require fine tuning in order to cancel radiative corrections, in particular for GUT-scale SUSY inflation. In contrast, electroweak scale hybrid inflation is not viable, unless the inflaton-waterfall field coupling is smaller than approximately 10 -11

  13. Higgsed Chromo-Natural Inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adshead, Peter [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,1110 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Martinec, Emil [Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago,5640 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637-1433 (United States); Department of Physics, University of Chicago,5640 S. Ellis Ave., Chicago, IL 60637-1433 (United States); Sfakianakis, Evangelos I. [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,1110 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Wyman, Mark [PDT Partners,1745 Broadway, 25th Floor, New York, NY 10019 (United States)

    2016-12-27

    We demonstrate that Chromo-Natural Inflation can be made consistent with observational data if the SU(2) gauge symmetry is spontaneously broken. Working in the Stueckelberg limit, we show that isocurvature is negligible, and the resulting adiabatic fluctuations can match current observational constraints. Observable levels of chirally-polarized gravitational radiation (r∼10{sup −3}) can be produced while the evolution of all background fields is sub-Planckian. The gravitational wave spectrum is amplified via linear mixing with the gauge field fluctuations, and its amplitude is not simply set by the Hubble rate during inflation. This allows observable gravitational waves to be produced for an inflationary energy scale below the GUT scale. The tilt of the resulting gravitational wave spectrum can be either blue or red.

  14. Planck constraints on monodromy inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easther, Richard; Flauger, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    We use data from the nominal Planck mission to constrain modulations in the primordial power spectrum associated with monodromy inflation. The largest improvement in fit relative to the unmodulated model has Δχ 2 ≈ 10 and we find no evidence for a primordial signal, in contrast to a previous analysis of the WMAP9 dataset, for which Δχ 2 ≈ 20. The Planck and WMAP9 results are broadly consistent on angular scales where they are expected to agree as far as best-fit values are concerned. However, even on these scales the significance of the signal is reduced in Planck relative to WMAP, and is consistent with a fit to the ''noise'' associated with cosmic variance. Our results motivate both a detailed comparison between the two experiments and a more careful study of the theoretical predictions of monodromy inflation

  15. Higgsed Chromo-Natural Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adshead, Peter; Martinec, Emil; Sfakianakis, Evangelos I.; Wyman, Mark

    2016-01-01

    We demonstrate that Chromo-Natural Inflation can be made consistent with observational data if the SU(2) gauge symmetry is spontaneously broken. Working in the Stueckelberg limit, we show that isocurvature is negligible, and the resulting adiabatic fluctuations can match current observational constraints. Observable levels of chirally-polarized gravitational radiation (r∼10 −3 ) can be produced while the evolution of all background fields is sub-Planckian. The gravitational wave spectrum is amplified via linear mixing with the gauge field fluctuations, and its amplitude is not simply set by the Hubble rate during inflation. This allows observable gravitational waves to be produced for an inflationary energy scale below the GUT scale. The tilt of the resulting gravitational wave spectrum can be either blue or red.

  16. Inflation from Asymptotically Safe Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Niklas Grønlund; Sannino, Francesco; Svendsen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    for inflation. In the minimal coupling case the theory requires large non-perturbative quantum corrections to the quantum potential for the theory to agree with data, while in the non- minimal coupling case the perturbative regime in the couplings of the theory is preferred. Requiring the theory to reproduce...... the observed amplitude of density perturbations constrain the geometric data of the theory such as the number of colors and flavors for generic values of the non-minimal coupling....

  17. An introduction to cosmological inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liddle, A.R.

    1999-01-01

    An introductory account is given of the inflationary cosmology, which postulates a period of accelerated expansion during the Universe's earliest stages. The historical motivation is briefly outlined, and the modelling of the inflationary epoch explained. The most important aspect of inflation is that it provides a possible model for the origin of structure in the Universe, and key results are reviewed, along with a discussion of the current observational situation and outlook. (author)

  18. Reheating for closed string inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Mazumdar, Anupam [Lancaster Univ. (United Kingdom). Physics Dept.; Copenhagen Univ. (Denmark). Niels Bohr Institute

    2010-05-15

    We point out some of the outstanding challenges for embedding inflationary cosmology within string theory studying the process of reheating for models where the inflaton is a closed string mode parameterising the size of an internal cycle of the compactification manifold. A realistic model of inflation must explain the tiny perturbations in the cosmic microwave background radiation and also how to excite the ordinary matter degrees of freedom after inflation, required for the success of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. We study these issues focusing on two promising inflationary models embedded in LARGE volume type IIB flux compactifications. We show that phenomenological requirements and consistency of the effective field theory treatment imply the presence at low energies of a hidden sector together with a visible sector, where the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model fields are residing. A detailed calculation of the inflaton coupling to the fields of the hidden sector, visible sector, and moduli sector, reveals that the inflaton fails to excite primarily the visible sector fields, instead hidden sector fields are excited copiously after the end of inflation. This sets severe constraints on hidden sector model building where the most promising scenario emerges as a pure N=1 SYM theory, forbidding the kinematical decay of the inflaton to the hidden sector. In this case it is possible to reheat the Universe with the visible degrees of freedom even though in some cases we discover a new tension between TeV scale SUSY and reheating on top of the well-known tension between TeV scale SUSY and inflation. (orig.)

  19. Black holes from extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, S.D.H.; Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA

    1990-01-01

    It is argued that models of extended inflation, in which modified Einstein gravity allows a graceful exit from the false vacuum, lead to copious production of black holes. The critical temperature of the inflationary phase transition must be >10 8 GeV in order to avoid severe cosmological problems in a universe dominated by black holes. We speculate on the possibility that the interiors of false vacuum regions evolve into baby universes. (orig.)

  20. The Implications of Grade Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, David E.; Fleisher, Steven

    2011-01-01

    The authors review current and past practices of the grade inflation controversy and present ways to return to each institution’s established grading guidelines. Students are graded based on knowledge gathered. Certain faculty members use thorough evaluative methods, such as written and oral pres...... have been profiled in the news. The model is provided to ensure that degree candidates are academic experts in their field, having earned the credential through rigorous study....

  1. General sGoldstino Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ferrara, Sergio

    2016-10-24

    We prove that all inflationary models, including those with dark energy after the end of inflation, can be embedded in minimal supergravity with a single chiral superfield. Moreover, the amount of supersymmetry breaking is independently tunable due to a degeneracy in the choice for the superpotential. The inflaton is a scalar partner of the Goldstino in this set-up. We illustrate our general procedure with two examples that are favoured by the Planck data.

  2. Universe: inflation out of chaos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linde, A

    1985-03-07

    The paper reviews the big bang theories of the earliest stages of the evolution of the Universe. The standard model and its associated problems; grand unified theories; scalar fields; and the inflationary Universe scenario; are all described. The newest model - Chaotic inflation, is a variation on the inflationary theme, and is outlined. Applications of this model to some of the standard model problems are discussed.

  3. General sGoldstino inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrara, Sergio [Theoretical Physics Department, CERN,CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); INFN - Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati,Via Enrico Fermi 40, 00044 Frascati (Italy); Department of Physics and Astronomy andMani L. Bhaumik Institute for Theoretical Physics, UCLA,470 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547 (United States); Roest, Diederik [Theoretical Physics Department, CERN,CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Van Swinderen Institute for Particle Physics and Gravity, University of Groningen,Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen (Netherlands)

    2016-10-24

    We prove that all inflationary models, including those with dark energy after the end of inflation, can be embedded in minimal supergravity with a single chiral superfield. Moreover, the amount of supersymmetry breaking is independently tunable due to a degeneracy in the choice for the superpotential. The inflaton is a scalar partner of the Goldstino in this set-up. We illustrate our general procedure with two examples that are favoured by the Planck data.

  4. Reheating for closed string inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicoli, Michele; Mazumdar, Anupam; Copenhagen Univ.

    2010-05-01

    We point out some of the outstanding challenges for embedding inflationary cosmology within string theory studying the process of reheating for models where the inflaton is a closed string mode parameterising the size of an internal cycle of the compactification manifold. A realistic model of inflation must explain the tiny perturbations in the cosmic microwave background radiation and also how to excite the ordinary matter degrees of freedom after inflation, required for the success of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. We study these issues focusing on two promising inflationary models embedded in LARGE volume type IIB flux compactifications. We show that phenomenological requirements and consistency of the effective field theory treatment imply the presence at low energies of a hidden sector together with a visible sector, where the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model fields are residing. A detailed calculation of the inflaton coupling to the fields of the hidden sector, visible sector, and moduli sector, reveals that the inflaton fails to excite primarily the visible sector fields, instead hidden sector fields are excited copiously after the end of inflation. This sets severe constraints on hidden sector model building where the most promising scenario emerges as a pure N=1 SYM theory, forbidding the kinematical decay of the inflaton to the hidden sector. In this case it is possible to reheat the Universe with the visible degrees of freedom even though in some cases we discover a new tension between TeV scale SUSY and reheating on top of the well-known tension between TeV scale SUSY and inflation. (orig.)

  5. Primordial Kaluza-Klein inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Diaz, P.F.

    1986-01-01

    In a higher-dimensional version of the gravitational action with higher-derivative terms and logarithmic dependence on the curvature scalar, in addition to the four-dimensional gravitational action integral, the non-gravitational Coleman-Weinberg effective potential that governs primordial inflation is obtained. Also, it is obtained that the length scale for the internal space decreases monotonously during the inflationary era, at a similar rate as the three spacelike dimensions grow. (orig.)

  6. Inflation in Nigeria: Possible determinants and remedies to tackle it in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godly Otto

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The previous Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN had intended to introduce the N5,000.00 currency bill into the Nigerian economy and claimed that such currency bill would help it manage the exchange rate especially against the dollar. This generated a huge outcry from the public especially economists. The major reason was that this introduction would generate inflation and also because the policy ran counter to the cash-less policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria. But to the Central Bank, there was no economic theory to suggest a currency redenomination could cause inflation. This debate once more threw up a need to reexamine the determinants of inflation in Nigeria. Generally, inflation could be cost push or demand pull but what drives the demand or informs cost quite often differ from one economy to another. This study examined the factors responsible for increasing cost of production and spending behaviour in Nigeria. It was able to identify 13 factors that impact on inflation. However, the degree of impact of each factor is left for another study. The study recommends that government should concentrate on providing social infrastructure that would encourage the private sector to invest and expand output, taking advantage of existing unemployed resources. This would help to stem inflation in Nigeria which is usually caused by scarcity

  7. The Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogut, Alan; Chluba, Jens; Fixsen, Dale J.; Meyer, Stephan; Spergel, David

    2016-01-01

    The Primordial Inflation Explorer is an Explorer-class mission to open new windows on the early universe through measurements of the polarization and absolute frequency spectrum of the cosmic microwave background. PIXIE will measure the gravitational-wave signature of primordial inflation through its distinctive imprint in linear polarization, and characterize the thermal history of the universe through precision measurements of distortions in the blackbody spectrum. PIXIE uses an innovative optical design to achieve background-limited sensitivity in 400 spectral channels spanning over 7 octaves in frequency from 30 GHz to 6 THz (1 cm to 50 micron wavelength). Multi-moded non-imaging optics feed a polarizing Fourier Transform Spectrometer to produce a set of interference fringes, proportional to the difference spectrum between orthogonal linear polarizations from the two input beams. Multiple levels of symmetry and signal modulation combine to reduce systematic errors to negligible levels. PIXIE will map the full sky in Stokes I, Q, and U parameters with angular resolution 2.6 degrees and sensitivity 70 nK per 1degree square pixel. The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r inflation to the nature of the first stars and the physical conditions within the interstellar medium of the Galaxy. We describe the PIXIE instrument and mission architecture required to measure the CMB to the limits imposed by astrophysical foregrounds.

  8. Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Stephen; Cortés, Joaquín A.

    2018-01-01

    A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well-known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurised magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ. The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t*) is approximately equal to τ. The distribution of t* / τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest.

  9. The productivity-inflation nexus: the case of the Australian mining sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahadevan, R.; Asafu Adjaye, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth. (author)

  10. The Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer (PIPER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazear, Justin Scott; Ade, Peter A.; Benford, Dominic J.; Bennett, Charles L.; Chuss, David T.; Dotson, Jessie L.; Eimer, Joseph R.; Fixsen, Dale J.; Halpern, Mark; Hinderks, James; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Primordial Inflation Polarization ExploreR (Piper) is a balloon-borne cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeter designed to search for evidence of inflation by measuring the large-angular scale CMB polarization signal. Bicep2 recently reported a detection of B-mode power corresponding to the tensor-to-scalar ratio r = 0.2 on approximately 2 degree scales. If the Bicep2 signal is caused by inflationary gravitational waves (IGWs), then there should be a corresponding increase in B-mode power on angular scales larger than 18 degrees. Piper is currently the only suborbital instrument capable of fully testing and extending the Bicep2 results by measuring the B-mode power spectrum on angular scales theta ? = approximately 0.6 deg to 90 deg, covering both the reionization bump and recombination peak, with sensitivity to measure the tensor-to-scalar ratio down to r = 0.007, and four frequency bands to distinguish foregrounds. Piper will accomplish this by mapping 85% of the sky in four frequency bands (200, 270, 350, 600 GHz) over a series of 8 conventional balloon flights from the northern and southern hemispheres. The instrument has background-limited sensitivity provided by fully cryogenic (1.5 K) optics focusing the sky signal onto four 32×40-pixel arrays of time-domain multiplexed Transition-Edge Sensor (TES) bolometers held at 140 milli-Kelvin. Polarization sensitivity and systematic control are provided by front-end Variabledelay Polarization Modulators (VPMs), which rapidly modulate only the polarized sky signal at 3 Hz and allow Piper to instantaneously measure the full Stokes vector (I,Q,U,0V) for each pointing. We describe the Piper instrument and progress towards its first flight.

  11. DNA-based identification of invasive alien species in relation to Canadian federal policy and law, and the basis of rapid-response management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Vernon G; Hanner, Robert H; Borisenko, Alex V

    2016-11-01

    Managing invasive alien species in Canada requires reliable taxonomic identification as the basis of rapid-response management. This can be challenging, especially when organisms are small and lack morphological diagnostic features. DNA-based techniques, such as DNA barcoding, offer a reliable, rapid, and inexpensive toolkit for taxonomic identification of individual or bulk samples, forensic remains, and even environmental DNA. Well suited for this requirement, they could be more broadly deployed and incorporated into the operating policy and practices of Canadian federal departments and should be authorized under these agencies' articles of law. These include Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Transport Canada, Environment Canada, Parks Canada, and Health Canada. These efforts should be harmonized with the appropriate provisions of provincial jurisdictions, for example, the Ontario Invasive Species Act. This approach necessitates that a network of accredited, certified laboratories exists, and that updated DNA reference libraries are readily accessible. Harmonizing this approach is vital among Canadian federal agencies, and between the federal and provincial levels of government. Canadian policy and law must also be harmonized with that of the USA when detecting, and responding to, invasive species in contiguous lands and waters. Creating capacity in legislation for use of DNA-based identifications brings the authority to fund, train, deploy, and certify staff, and to refine further developments in this molecular technology.

  12. Tensor-to-scalar ratio in punctuated inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Rajeev Kumar; Sriramkumar, L.; Chingangbam, Pravabati; Souradeep, Tarun

    2010-01-01

    Recently, we have shown that scalar spectra with lower power on large scales and certain other features naturally occur in punctuated inflation, i.e. the scenario wherein a brief period of rapid roll is sandwiched between two stages of slow roll inflation. Such spectra gain importance due to the fact that they can lead to a better fit of the observed CMB anisotropies, when compared to the conventional, featureless, power law spectrum. In this paper, with examples from the canonical scalar field as well as the tachyonic models, we illustrate that, in punctuated inflation, a drop in the scalar power on large scales is always accompanied by a rise in the tensor power and, hence, an even more pronounced increase in the tensor-to-scalar ratio r on these scales. Interestingly, we find that r actually exceeds well beyond unity over a small range of scales. To our knowledge, this work presents for the first time, examples of single scalar field inflationary models wherein r>>1. This feature opens up interesting possibilities. For instance, we show that the rise in r on large scales translates to a rapid increase in the angular power spectrum, C l BB , of the B-mode polarization of the CMB at the low multipoles. We discuss the observational implications of these results.

  13. Rapid urbanization, employment crisis and poverty in African LDCs:A new development strategy and aid policy

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Michael; Khan, Haider

    2008-01-01

    Rapid urbanization is a fact of live even in the least developed countries (LDCs) where the lion’s share of the population presently lives in rural areas and will continue to do so for decades to come. At the turn of the millennium 75% of the LDCs’ population still lived in rural areas and 71% of the LDCs’ labor force was involved in agriculture. But even though the largest share of their population lives in rural areas and directly or indirectly derives their livelihoods from agriculture, a ...

  14. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE INFLATION: EMPIRICAL SURVEY FOR ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Catalina Adriana Handoreanu

    2008-01-01

    The influence on price level of changes in exchange rate comeback in the last period in the attention of economists and policy makers. The price level movement due to the changes in the exchange rate is named exchange rate pass-through and is important for the monetary policy and for the exchange rate choice. A reduced passthrough makes the monetary policy more independent and more easily implementation of inflation targeting. This working paper analyzed this phenomenon through a recursive eq...

  15. On inflation in the heterotic superstring model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maeda, K.; Pollock, M.D.

    1985-11-01

    We consider the possibility of achieving inflation in the field-theory limit of the E 8 xE 8 superstring model. We show that neither type I inflation nor inflation due to a SUSY-breaking gaugino-condensation potential, is possible, essentially because of the absence of free dimensionless parameters. Kaluza-Klein type inflation is ruled out because the internal space is Ricci flat. The occurrence of type II inflation (due to some gauge singlet 'inflaton' field phi) depends upon the form of the superpotential F and of the Kaehler potential G, but this also seems not to be possible, unless the SU(n,1) symmetry can be broken in a particular way. Hence, some new type of compactification scheme may be called for, or a different type of inflation

  16. Microwave background anisotropies in quasiopen inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

    1999-10-01

    Quasiopenness seems to be generic to multifield models of single-bubble open inflation. Instead of producing infinite open universes, these models actually produce an ensemble of very large but finite inflating islands. In this paper we study the possible constraints from CMB anisotropies on existing models of open inflation. The effect of supercurvature anisotropies combined with the quasiopenness of the inflating regions make some models incompatible with observations, and severely reduces the parameter space of others. Supernatural open inflation and the uncoupled two-field model seem to be ruled out due to these constraints for values of Ω0<~0.98. Others, such as the open hybrid inflation model with suitable parameters for the slow roll potential can be made compatible with observations.

  17. The scale of inflation in the landscape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group

    2013-03-15

    We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}O(10{sup -3}) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.

  18. Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lena Malešević-Perović

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of inflation in Croatia in the period 1994:6-2006:6. We use a cointegration approach and find that increases in wages positively influence inflation in the long-run. Furthermore, in the period from June 1994 onward, the depreciation of the currency also contributed to inflation. Money does not explain Croatian inflation. This irrelevance of the money supply is consistent with its endogeneity to exchange rate targeting, whereby the money supply is determined by developments in the foreign exchange market. The value of inflation in the previous period is also found to be significant, thus indicating some inflation inertia.

  19. Graceful exit from Higgs G-inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Rikkyo Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Kunimitsu, Taro [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (Japan). Kavli Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU)

    2013-09-15

    Higgs G-inflation is a Higgs inflation model with a generalized Galileon term added to the standard model Higgs field, which realizes inflation compatible with observations. Recently, it was claimed that the generalized Galileon term induces instabilities during the oscillation phase, and that the simplest Higgs G-inflation model inevitably suffers from this problem. In this paper, we extend the original Higgs G-inflation Lagrangian to a more general form, namely introducing a higher-order kinetic term and generalizing the form of the Galileon term, so that the Higgs field can oscillate after inflation without encountering instabilities. Moreover, it accommodates a large region of the n{sub s}-r plane, most of which is consistent with current observations, leading us to expect the detection of B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background in the near future.

  20. Inflation of Unreefed and Reefed Extraction Parachutes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Eric S.; Varela, Jose G.

    2015-01-01

    Data from the Orion and several other test programs have been used to reconstruct inflation parameters for 28 ft Do extraction parachutes as well as the parent aircraft pitch response during extraction. The inflation force generated by extraction parachutes is recorded directly during tow tests but is usually inferred from the payload accelerometer during Low Velocity Airdrop Delivery (LVAD) flight test extractions. Inflation parameters are dependent on the type of parent aircraft, number of canopies, and standard vs. high altitude extraction conditions. For standard altitudes, single canopy inflations are modeled as infinite mass, but the non-symmetric inflations in a cluster are modeled as finite mass. High altitude extractions have necessitated reefing the extraction parachutes, which are best modeled as infinite mass for those conditions. Distributions of aircraft pitch profiles and inflation parameters have been generated for use in Monte Carlo simulations of payload extractions.

  1. The fissioning universe: Topological inflation and Kaluza-Klein cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaku, Michio; Lykken, J.

    1986-01-01

    We propose a Kaluza-Klein cosmology by reversing the usual scenario: instead of starting with a flat 4+N dimensional universe in which N of the dimensions curl up into a compact manifold, we start with a compact 3+N dimensional manifold in which 3 of the dimensions are allowed to peel off and expand into the known universe. We reverse the usual ''spontaneous compactification'' scenario begin with a closed manifold Msup(3+N) which undergoes ''spontaneous fissioning'' into a product manifold M 3 xMsup(N). Remarkably, the 3-dimensional universe M 3 can undergo a rapid de Sitter expansion large enough to solve the horizon and flatness problem. We call this ''topological inflation'', which we propose as an alternative to the usual GUT inflation. The inflationary phase automatically terminates into a big bang phase. (orig.)

  2. 46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Inspections § 169.849 Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and... determined by the Officer in Charge, Marine Inspection. ...

  3. A comparison of inflation expectations and inflation credibility in South Africa: results from survey data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jannie Rossouw

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.

  4. Primordial perturbations in multi-scalar inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abedi, Habib; Abbassi, Amir M., E-mail: h.abedi@ut.ac.ir, E-mail: amabasi@khayam.ut.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Tehran, North Kargar Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-07-01

    Multiple field models of inflation exhibit new features than single field models. In this work, we study the hierarchy of parameters based on Hubble expansion rate in curved field space and derive the system of flow equations that describe their evolutions. Then we focus on obtaining derivatives of number of e-folds with respect to scalar fields during inflation and at hypersurface of the end of inflation.

  5. Multifield DBI Inflation and Non-Gaussianities

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Min-xin; Underwood, Bret

    2008-01-01

    We analyze the trajectories for multifield DBI inflation, which can arise in brane inflation models, and show that the trajectories are the same as in typical slow roll inflation. We calculate the power spectrum and find that the higher derivative terms of the DBI action lead to a suppression of the contribution from the isocurvature perturbations. We also calculate the bispectrum generated by the isocurvature perturbation, and find that it leads to distinctive features.

  6. Primordial inflation and the monopole problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olive, K.A.; Seckel, D.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter discusses the cosmological abundance of magnetic monopoles in locally supersymmetry grand unified theories (GUTs) and primordial inflation. It is shown how the magnetic monopole problem can be solved in variants of broken N=1 supergravity primordial inflation. The monopole problem and its solution in inflationary models is reviewed. It is demonstrated that the monopole problem can be solved by coupling primordial inflation to supersymmetric SU(5) breaking

  7. Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion

    OpenAIRE

    Chao Wei

    2007-01-01

    Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) use VAR results to advocate inflation illusion as the explanation for the positive association between inflation and the dividend yield. Contrary to their results, we find that a fully rational dynamic general equilibrium model can generate a positive correlation between the dividend yield and inflation of comparable size to its data counterpart. The model results support a proxy hypothesis, according to which, a third factor, which in our model represents tech...

  8. Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic mino...

  9. Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Madeira; Basit Zafar

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are slower to update their expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctua...

  10. Inflation Dynamics in India: An Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Nair, Manju S

    2014-01-01

    India has exhibited high variability in inflation during the last eight years owing to both internal and external factors. The Global Financial Meltdown, recurrent increase in global oil prices, wage employment programmes, widening current account deficits etc resulted in fluctuations in inflation. These factors have a direct influence on variables like output, money supply, exchange rate which in turn affect inflation. In this context, the study employs a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressi...

  11. Towards natural inflation in string theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Dayan, Ido; Pedro, Francisco G.; Westphal, Alexander

    2014-07-01

    We provide type IIB string embeddings of two axion variants of natural inflation. We use a combination of RR 2 form axions as the inflaton field and have its potential generated by non perturbative effects in the superpotential. Besides giving rise to inflation, the models developed take into account the stabilization of the compact space, both in the KKLT and large volume scenario regimes, an essential condition for any semi-realistic model of string inflation.

  12. PERANAN VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP INFLASI PASCAPENERAPAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK (ITF 1 DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1999.1-2008.6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joko Waluyo

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomics variable, which is real exchange rate, SBI, M1 and GDP to domestic inflation in Inflation Targeting Framework. This research also intended to analyze effect of macroeconomics to inflation, which been transmitted through interest rate and will give us a big picture on what’s the next monetary policies. We used monthly time series data 1999:01–2008:06 and applied Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the phenomenon. Real exchange rate, SBI (quarterly, M1 and GDP have positive effect to the inflation, but only real exchange rate and SBI (quarterly which has permanent and long term effect. The real exchange rate has strong effect on inflation stability because, by applying ITF. The free-floating exchange rate system should be applied, and the fragile currency shall be easily fluctuated.

  13. Who influenced inflation persistence in China? A comparative analysis of the standard CIA model and CIA model with endogenous money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Ying

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the influencing factors of inflation persistence in China’s economy using the DSGE approach. Two monetary DSGE models are estimated, namely, a standard CIA model and a CIA model with a Taylor rule. This article uses the Bayesian method to estimate the model, and the estimated and inferred results are credible due to the Markov chain reaching convergence. The results show that the augmented model outperforms the standard CIA model in terms of capturing inflation persistence. Further studies show that inflation persistence mainly comes from the persistence of the money supply, while money supply uncertainty, the reaction coefficient of monetary growth to productivity, productivity persistence and productivity uncertainty have a smaller impact on inflation persistence. Changes of monetary policy have little effect on inflation persistence.

  14. Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability

    OpenAIRE

    WenShwo Fang; Stephen M. Miller; Chih-Chuan Yeh

    2009-01-01

    Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation – the mean and median – and three different measures of inflation variability – the standard deviation, relative variation, and median deviation. All results from the mean and standard deviation, the mean and relative variation, or the median and the median deviation support both the hypothesis that higher inflation cr...

  15. Inflatable Rigidizable Solar Array for Small Satellites

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lichodziejewski, David; Veal, Gordon; Helms, Richard; Freeland, Robert; Kruer, Mark

    2002-01-01

    .... Utilizing L Garde s next-generation stretched aluminum inflatable rigidizable tube technology, and Northrop Grumman s new polymer coverglass photovoltaic cell technology, power densities as high...

  16. Chaotic inflation in models with flat directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graziani, F.; Olive, K.

    1989-01-01

    We consider the chaotic inflationary scenario in models with flat directions. We find that unless the scalars along the flat directions have vacuum expectation values p or 10 14 M p 15 M p depending on the expectation values of the chaotic inflator, Ψ, one or two or more periods of inflation occur but with a resulting energy density perturbation δρ/ρ ≅ 10 -16 , far too small to be of any consequence for galaxy formation. Even with p only limited initial values of ≅ (3-200) M p result in inflation with reasonable density perturbations. Thus chaotic inflation in models with flat directions require rather special initial conditions. (orig.)

  17. Is non-minimal inflation eternal?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Chao-Jun; Li, Xin-Zhou

    2010-01-01

    The possibility that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal is investigated. We calculate the quantum fluctuation of the inflaton in a Hubble time and find that it has the same value as that in the minimal case in the slow-roll limit. Armed with this result, we have studied some concrete non-minimal inflationary models including the chaotic inflation and the natural inflation, in which the inflaton is non-minimally coupled to the gravity. We find that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal in some parameter spaces.

  18. Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the eurozone : Evidence from survey data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on

  19. Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the Eurozone : Evidence from survey data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.

    2006-01-01

    This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on

  20. Signalling, wage controls and monetary disinflation policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Persson, T.

    1993-01-01

    Focuses on wage control and monetary disinflation policy. How the crucial variable to control is the money supply and wage and price controls should be avoided because of their macroeconomic costs; The two types of government as being low-inflation governments and high-inflation governments; How

  1. Cybersecurity Risks: Are They Inflated?

    OpenAIRE

    Petr Chrapavy

    2016-01-01

    With various views being posed on cybersecurity, this paper examines the proposition that cybersecurity risks are inflated. Due to the complexity of the cybersecurity environment, the risks will be dichotomised into two distinct categories—those posed by cybercrime, and those classified as cyber-warfare. In relation to cyber-crime, the paper examines the rise of cyber-crime, its costs, and the views of these factors by “alarmists” and “sceptics.” In relation to cyber-war, the paper sets aside...

  2. Non-minimal inflation revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nozari, Kourosh; Shafizadeh, Somayeh

    2010-01-01

    We reconsider an inflationary model that inflaton field is non-minimally coupled to gravity. We study the parameter space of the model up to the second (and in some cases third) order of the slow-roll parameters. We calculate inflation parameters in both Jordan and Einstein frames, and the results are compared in these two frames and also with observations. Using the recent observational data from combined WMAP5+SDSS+SNIa datasets, we study constraints imposed on our model parameters, especially the non-minimal coupling ξ.

  3. Stochastic dynamics of new inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakao, Ken-ichi; Nambu, Yasusada; Sasaki, Misao.

    1988-07-01

    We investigate thoroughly the dynamics of an inflation-driving scalar field in terms of an extended version of the stochastic approach proposed by Starobinsky and discuss the spacetime structure of the inflationary universe. To avoid any complications which might arise due to quantum gravity, we concentrate our discussions on the new inflationary universe scenario in which all the energy scales involved are well below the planck mass. The investigation is done both analytically and numerically. In particular, we present a full numerical analysis of the stochastic scalar field dynamics on the phase space. Then implications of the results are discussed. (author)

  4. Foam rigidized inflatable structural assemblies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Michael L. (Inventor); Schnell, Andrew R. (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    An inflatable and rigidizable structure for use as a habitat or a load bearing structure is disclosed. The structure consists of an outer wall and an inner wall defining a containment member and a bladder. The bladder is pressurized to erect the structure from an initially collapsed state. The containment member is subsequently injected with rigidizable fluid through an arrangement of injection ports. Exhaust gases from the curing rigidizable fluid are vented through an arrangement of exhaust ports. The rate of erection can be controlled by frictional engagement with a container or by using a tether. A method for fabricating a tubular structure is disclosed.

  5. When Parents’ Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A.; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio De Castro, Bram

    2017-01-01

    Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to

  6. Towards inflation targeting in Egypt: the relationship between exchange rate and inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliaa Khodeir

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI and wholesale price index (WPI. In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of ‘flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime’.

  7. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  8. Stochastic inflation and nonlinear gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salopek, D.S.; Bond, J.R.

    1991-01-01

    We show how nonlinear effects of the metric and scalar fields may be included in stochastic inflation. Our formalism can be applied to non-Gaussian fluctuation models for galaxy formation. Fluctuations with wavelengths larger than the horizon length are governed by a network of Langevin equations for the physical fields. Stochastic noise terms arise from quantum fluctuations that are assumed to become classical at horizon crossing and that then contribute to the background. Using Hamilton-Jacobi methods, we solve the Arnowitt-Deser-Misner constraint equations which allows us to separate the growing modes from the decaying ones in the drift phase following each stochastic impulse. We argue that the most reasonable choice of time hypersurfaces for the Langevin system during inflation is T=ln(Ha), where H and a are the local values of the Hubble parameter and the scale factor, since T is the natural time for evolving the short-wavelength scalar field fluctuations in an inhomogeneous background

  9. Inflation with Fayet-Iliopoulos terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieck, Clemens; Winkler, Martin Wolfgang

    2014-08-01

    Two of the most attractive realizations of inflation in supergravity are based upon the presence of a constant Fayet-Iliopoulos (FI) term. In D-term hybrid inflation it is the FI term itself which sets the energy scale of inflation. Alternatively, the breaking of a U(1) symmetry induced by the FI term can dynamically generate the quadratic potential of chaotic inflation. The purpose of this note is to study the possible UV embedding of these schemes in terms of the 'field-dependent FI term' related to a string modulus field which is stabilized by a non-perturbative superpotential. We find that in settings where the FI term drives inflation, gauge invariance prevents a decoupling of the modulus from the inflationary dynamics. The resulting inflation models generically contain additional dynamical degrees of freedom compared to D-term hybrid inflation. However, the dynamical realization of chaotic inflation can be obtained in complete analogy to the case of a constant FI term. We present a simple string-inspired toy model of this type.

  10. On the waterfall behavior in hybrid inflation

    OpenAIRE

    Kodama, Hideo; Kohri, Kazunori; Nakayama, Kazunori

    2011-01-01

    We revisit the hybrid inflation model focusing on the dynamics of the waterfall field in an analytical way. It is shown that inflation may last long enough during the waterfall regime for some parameter regions, confirming the claim of Clesse. In this case the scalar spectral index becomes red, and can fall into the best fit range of the WMAP observation.

  11. Dynamical baryogenesis through complex hybrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delepine, D; MartInez, C; Urena-Lopez, L A

    2008-01-01

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U (1) global symmetry associated to the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry [1

  12. Dynamical baryogenesis through complex hybrid inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delepine, D; MartInez, C; Urena-Lopez, L A [Instituto de Fisica de la Universidad de Guanajuato, C.P. 37150, Leon, Guanajuato (Mexico)], E-mail: delepine@fisica.ugto.mx, E-mail: crmtz@fisica.ugto.mx, E-mail: lurena@fisica.ugto.mx

    2008-06-01

    We propose a hybrid inflation model with a complex waterfall field which contains an interaction term that breaks the U (1) global symmetry associated to the waterfall field charge. We show that the asymmetric evolution of the real and imaginary parts of the complex field during the phase transition at the end of inflation translates into a charge asymmetry [1].

  13. Inflation risk and international asset returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the

  14. 76 FR 56294 - Inflatable Personal Flotation Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-13

    ... direct final rule, UL 1191 was revised to return this value to 10%. Another commenter expressed concern... into effect, would facilitate teens using existing inflatable PFDs, and would enable the marketing of existing inflatable PFDs to youth. The commenter also expressed concern that this rulemaking is premature...

  15. Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A. [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Physics Department, Kings College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia, E-mail: katy.clough@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: eugene.a.lim@gmail.com, E-mail: bsd86@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: fischler@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: flauger@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: paban@physics.utexas.edu [Department of Physics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.

  16. Fluctuations in models with primordial inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahn, R.; Brandenberger, R.

    1984-01-01

    The recently proposed general framework for calculating the growth of primordial energy density fluctuations in cosmological models is applied to two models of phenomenological interest in which the cosmological evolution differs crucially from that in new inflationary universe models. Both in a model of primordial supersymmetric inflation and in Linde's proposal of chaotic inflation we verify the conjectured results. (orig.)

  17. Inflation Metaphor in the TIME Magazine Corpus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chunyu; Liu, Huijie

    2016-01-01

    A historical perspective on economy metaphor can shed new lights on economic thoughts. Based on the TIME Magazine Corpus (TMC), this paper investigates inflation metaphor over 83 years and compares findings against the economic data over the relatively corresponding period. The results show how inflation, an abstract concept and a normal economic…

  18. Understanding Inflation and Revising National Price Data

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Pete

    In parallel, official inflation statistics attribute inflation to other expenditure items. Whereas ..... Finally, instead of using a fixed-based index, other methods employ non-fixed bases for ...... Furniture and Household Maintenance. 7.9. 3.9. 8.18.

  19. The effect of inflation on nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schofield, L.J.

    A sophisticated analysis is given of the effects of inflation on the respective economics of CANDU power plants versus fossil fuel (especially coal-fired) power plants in Canada. Coal price escalation of 8% per annum or greater significantly favors CANDU plants. At 5%, especially with double digit inflation of capital costs, the competitive advantage of CANDU becomes small. (E.C.B.)

  20. Demystify Learning Expectations to Address Grade Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Linda C.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the subject of "grade inflation," a reference to educators giving higher grades to student work than their expectations for student achievement warrant. Of the many reasons why this practice happens, Hodges specifically discusses inflating grades as "a natural consequence" when the faculty really…

  1. Grade Inflation: An Issue for Higher Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruth, Donald L.; Caruth, Gail D.

    2013-01-01

    Grade inflation impacts university credibility, student courses of study, choices of institution, and other areas. There has been an upward shift in grades without a corresponding upward shift in knowledge gained. Some of the most frequently mentioned causes of grade inflation are: (1) student evaluations of professors; (2) student teacher…

  2. Inflation Metaphor in Contemporary American English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chunyu; Chen, Zhi

    2015-01-01

    Inflation is often regarded as a dangerous phenomenon which poses a potential threat to economies in the world. It is thus an entity that demands the constant attention of economists, policymakers and the general public. In order to make this abstract entry more concrete and vivid, a number of metaphorical expressions are used to depict inflation.…

  3. Inflation, large scale structure and particle physics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Logo of the Indian Academy of Sciences ... Hybrid inflation; Higgs scalar field; structure formation; curvation. ... We then discuss a particle physics model of supersymmetric hybrid inflation at the intermediate scale in which ... May 2018. Home · Volumes & Issues · Special Issues · Forthcoming Articles · Search · Editorial Board ...

  4. Inflatable antenna for earth observing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hong-Jian; Guan, Fu-ling; Xu, Yan; Yi, Min

    2010-09-01

    This paper describe mechanical design, dynamic analysis, and deployment demonstration of the antenna , and the photogrammetry detecting RMS of inflatable antenna surface, the possible errors results form the measurement are also analysed. Ticra's Grasp software are used to predict the inflatable antenna pattern based on the coordinates of the 460 points on the parabolic surface, the final results verified the whole design process.

  5. 77 FR 19937 - Inflatable Personal Flotation Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-03

    ... Advancement Act OMB Office of Management and Budget PFD Personal flotation device STP Standards Technical... using existing inflatable PFDs, and would enable marketing of existing inflatable PFDs to youth. The... approved, and thus does not affect the availability, use, or marketing of existing PFDs to or by the youth...

  6. How did Japanese rural dwellers become rapidly healthier in the two decades following World War II?: Examining the diverse policy interventions that improved the population's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuasa, Motoyuki

    2017-01-01

    policies implemented in Japan as well as the integration of various policies and programs addressing livelihoods, economics, and education greatly improved the population's health in a relatively short time. These non-health initiatives intersected with a wide range of health determinants. Verifying these hypotheses in detail would help develop effective measures for international aid to poverty-stricken regions. It also encourages alternative ways through which Japan could overcome its present-day challenges such as a rapidly aging population with limited access to national schemes for social security.

  7. Inflation targeting and economic performance: The case of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrasco Carlos A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the paper we analyze the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT in Mexico. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of inflation targeting and full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT on the level and the variability of the inflation and the output in the Mexican economy. We conclude that inflation rates had been reduced in Mexico before the introduction of IT and FFIT. In our opinion, the structural reforms, including the Banxico reforms, are the main determinants of the decrease in inflation and its variability. The main impact of IT would have been the lock-in of inflation expectations around a low rate of inflation.

  8. Technology & Mechanics Overview of Air-Inflated Fabric Structures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cavallaro, Paul V

    2006-01-01

    .... Examples include air ships, weather balloons, inflatable radomes, shelters, pneumatic muscles, inflatable boats, bridging, and energy absorbers such as automotive air bags and landing cushions for space vehicles...

  9. A blood pressure monitor with robust noise reduction system under linear cuff inflation and deflation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usuda, Takashi; Kobayashi, Naoki; Takeda, Sunao; Kotake, Yoshifumi

    2010-01-01

    We have developed the non-invasive blood pressure monitor which can measure the blood pressure quickly and robustly. This monitor combines two measurement mode: the linear inflation and the linear deflation. On the inflation mode, we realized a faster measurement with rapid inflation rate. On the deflation mode, we realized a robust noise reduction. When there is neither noise nor arrhythmia, the inflation mode incorporated on this monitor provides precise, quick and comfortable measurement. Once the inflation mode fails to calculate appropriate blood pressure due to body movement or arrhythmia, then the monitor switches automatically to the deflation mode and measure blood pressure by using digital signal processing as wavelet analysis, filter bank, filter combined with FFT and Inverse FFT. The inflation mode succeeded 2440 measurements out of 3099 measurements (79%) in an operating room and a rehabilitation room. The new designed blood pressure monitor provides the fastest measurement for patient with normal circulation and robust measurement for patients with body movement or severe arrhythmia. Also this fast measurement method provides comfortableness for patients.

  10. CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND INFLATION TARGETING - THE BRITISH EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Delia

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Known as the ‘Old Lady’ of Threadneedle Street, the Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Founded in 1694, the Bank of England is standing at the centre of the United Kingdom’s financial system, and is committed to promoting and maintaining monetary and financial stability as its contribution to a healthy economy. In our opinion, it is very important to analyze the Bank of England’s monetary policy strategy, starting from 1992 – adoption of the inflation target and the evolution of it’s monetary policy strategy, through an important feature – delegating operational accountability regarding the monetary policy in 1997 as well as the appropriate institutional framework. More over, it is important to analyze the Bank of England’s performances before and after granting central bank independence.

  11. The Realization Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy Objectives: 2001-2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Guogang

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the realization mechanism for the final and interim targets of China's monetary policy from 2001 to 2010.It finds that the three significant price surges in the ten years were not the results of loose monetary policy While maintaining rapid economic growth,China avoided the inflation linked with excess monetary supply.The introduction of total new lending in the interim targets also showed the maturing of China's monetary policy target system.To improve China's monetary operation,three measures need to te taken:firstly,basing stabilizing monetary policy on the trend of the non-food price index within the CPI;secondly,readjusting the definition of money according the different characteristics of transaction money and reserve money;and thirdly,including yuan exchange rates into the intermediate objectives of monetary policy.

  12. Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian; Dutta, Koushik

    2011-02-01

    Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the η-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)

  13. Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M.

    2010-01-01

    In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters

  14. Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M., E-mail: antusch@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: jbaumann@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: domcke@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: kostka@mppmu.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters.

  15. Does string theory lead to extended inflation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Bruce A.; Linde, Andrei; Olive, Keith A.

    1991-05-01

    We consider the relationship between string theory and currently proposed models of extended inflation. In doing so, we discuss the conformal actions in string theory and in Jordan-Brans-Dicke gravity. We show explicitly the equivalence of pictures in which either gauge or gravitational couplings are changing with time. We demonstrate that the existence of the dilation in string theory does not naturally lead to extended inflation as currently discussed. We also discuss the resolution of the graceful exit problem of old inflation in Einstein gravity using either power-law inflation, or exponential inflation with a changing bubble formation rate. On leave of absence from School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.

  16. Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Muenchen (Germany); Dutta, Koushik [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the {eta}-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)

  17. Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garriga, J.; Mukhanov, V.F.

    1997-01-01

    In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Ω 0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  18. Affleck-Dine baryogenesis just after inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Masaki

    2015-11-01

    We propose a new scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis where a at direction in the MSSM generates B-L asymmetry just after the end of inflation. The resulting amount of baryon asymmetry is independent of low-energy supersymmetric models but is dependent on inflation models. We consider the hybrid and chaotic inflation models and find that reheating temperature is required to be higher than that in the conventional scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis. In particular, non-thermal gravitino-overproduction problem is naturally avoided in the hybrid inflation model. Our results imply that Affleck-Dine baryogenesis can be realized in a broader range of supersymmetry and inflation models than expected in the literature.

  19. Higgs-Palatini inflation and unitarity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauer, Florian; Demir, Durmus A.

    2011-01-01

    In the Higgs inflation scenario the Higgs field is strongly coupled to the Ricci scalar in order to drive primordial inflation. However, in its original form in pure metric formulation of gravity, the ultraviolet (UV) cutoff of the Higgs interactions and the Hubble rate are of the same magnitude, and this makes the whole inflationary evolution dependent of the unknown UV completion of the Higgs sector. This problem, the unitarity violation, plagues the Higgs inflation scenario. In this Letter we show that, in the Palatini formulation of gravitation, Higgs inflation does not suffer from unitarity violation since the UV cutoff lies parametrically much higher than the Hubble rate so that unknown UV physics does not disrupt the inflationary dynamics. Higgs-Palatini inflation, as we call it, is, therefore, UV-safe, minimal and endowed with predictive power.

  20. A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation in France and the USA: credible target VS inflation spiral

    OpenAIRE

    B. HEITZ

    2005-01-01

    This paper seeks to apply the general framework of Markov-switching models to inflation in France and in the USA. We propose a model where inflation can, alternatively, follow two regimes: the first one, where inflation is stationary, is interpreted as a situation where there exists a credible inflation target, even if it is not explicit; the second one where inflation is integrated. Moreover, observing that the two oil shocks were followed by accelerating inflation periods, we allow dependen...