Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations

OpenAIRE

Marek Dabrowski; Wojciech Paczynski; Lukasz Rawdanowicz

2002-01-01

This paper seeks the main factors behind inflation in Russia over the period 1996–2001. It presents a succinct description of Russian monetary policy and inflation developments. The econometric analysis establishes a long-run relationship between demand for the real money balances on the one side and the real income and short-term interest rate on the other side. It also presents several specifications of modeling shortrun dynamics of inflation. An account is made for the change in the exchan...

Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

OpenAIRE

Robert Pollin; James Heintz

2007-01-01

This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

Effects of the Trilemma Policies on Inflation, Growth and Volatility in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu HSING

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper finds evidence of the trilemma for Bulgaria, suggesting that exchange rate stability, monetary independence and free capital mobility are binding and constrained. The policy combination of exchange rate stability and monetary independence has been prevalent. More exchange rate stability increases the growth rate of real GDP whereas more monetary independence or free capital mobility reduces the growth rate. The inflation rate, inflation volatility and output volatility are not affected by either one of the three trilemma policies.

Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar

2010-12-01

Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.

Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

2015-01-01

Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Revisited: Evidence from Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mesbah Fathy Sharaf

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The welfare costs of inflation and inflation uncertainty are well documented in the literature and empirical evidence on the link between the two is sparse in the case of Egypt. This paper investigates the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Egypt using monthly time series data during the period January 1974–April 2015. To endogenously control for any potential structural breaks in the inflation time series, Zivot and Andrews (2002 and Clemente–Montanes–Reyes (1998 unit root tests are used. The inflation–inflation uncertainty relation is modeled by the standard two-step approach as well as simultaneously using various versions of the GARCH-M model to control for any potential feedback effects. The analyses explicitly control for the effect of the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Program (ERSAP undertaken by the Egyptian government in the early 1990s, which affected inflation rate and its associated volatility. Results show a high degree of inflation–volatility persistence in the response to inflationary shocks. Granger-causality test along with symmetric and asymmetric GARCH-M models indicate a statistically significant bi-directional positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, supporting both the Friedman–Ball and the Cukierman–Meltzer hypotheses. The findings are robust to the various estimation methods and model specifications. The findings of this paper support the view of adopting inflation-targeting policy in Egypt, after fulfilling its preconditions, to reduce the welfare cost of inflation and its related uncertainties. Monetary authorities in Egypt should enhance the credibility of monetary policy and attempt to reduce inflation uncertainty, which will help lower inflation rates.

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries; Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; R. Armando Morales; Rafael Portillo; Jan Vlcek

2013-01-01

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary mo...

The Effects of Inflation and Pricing Policies on College Enrollments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostar, Allan W.

Some of the effects of inflation and pricing policies on college costs are discussed, and it is shown that rising college costs have a negative effect upon student opportunity and access. Continual escalation of tuition and fees can lead to a shrinking of the higher education enterprise. Federal efforts (and state efforts to the extent that they…

Food inflation in South Africa: some implications for economic policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Rangasamy, Logan

2011-01-01

This paper analyses the trends in food price movements in South Africa between 1980 and 2008. There are three main results emanating from the analysis in this paper. Firstly, food price movements have played a large role in generating inflationary episodes in South Africa. Secondly, while external influences do matter, South African food price movements are mainly due to domestic influences. This implies that national policy has an important role to play in taming domestic food price inflation. Thirdly, given the strong second round impacts, food price movements warrant special attention in monetary policymaking. Core measures of inflation that exclude food price movements may not accurately reflect the underlying inflationary pressures in the economy and could compromise the attainment of the goal of price stability.

Inflation and the price of oil in Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Globerman, S A [York Univ., Toronto; Bruce, H A

1976-09-01

A current policy concern in North America is how rapidly (if at all) domestic oil prices should be allowed to rise to world levels. An argument frequently used by those advocating control of domestic prices is that further increases in oil prices would impose undue burdens in the form of greater inflation and unemployment. While long-run costs associated with allocative inefficiencies are recognized, critics of policies calling for decontrolling domestic oil prices argue that the short-run costs associated with greater inflation and higher unemployment outweigh the long-run inefficiencies associated with price controls. Estimates of the impacts of increased oil costs are not easy. Three studies by Ontario on the consumer price index are described, and the authors conclude that the figures from these studies are too high. Some results of U.S. studies are cited. (MCW)

Inflation targeting and interest rate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhagen, W.H.

2001-01-01

The thesis contains a collection of papers on issues in inflation targeting and its implications for the way interest rates are set. In this respect, the first part deals with two largely positive issues: the effect of inflation forecast targeting on the term structure of interest rates and the

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2011-01-01

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous expectations.

PERSPECTIVES OF INFLATION TARGETING, IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

COROIU SORINA IOANA

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In the context of economic crisis, monetary policy makers are facing a number of challenges, including the selection and implementation of the best monetary policy. In this paper, we want to see if inflation targeting is or is not a solution to exit the economic crisis. If the answer is positive, then what would be the optimal level of inflation? Many central banks target an inflation rate of 2%. In this paper we intend to show that, in certain circumstances, a very low level of inflation can significantly reduce the stabilizing effects of monetary policy. A slightly higher value of inflation targeting would reduce the constraints on monetary policy, caused by the appearance of liquidity trap. The risk for the interest rates of monetary policy to achieve zero level is related to the central banks’ choise of the appropriate inflation target. We believe that an increase in the inflation target of 2% to 4% would ease monetary policy constraints arising from the liquidity trap problem. If inflation targeting is not a solution to exit the crisis, then are there other strategies that would be a better alternative? Following this analysis, no obvious alternatives were identified, so far, there is no clear reason for that to abandon inflation targeting.

Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru

OpenAIRE

Erick Lahura; Marco Vega

2011-01-01

Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identication of non-transitory inflation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation measures". In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of ...

Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghulam Rasool Madni

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Fiscal policy has more controversial debate regarding its effectiveness on different macroeconomic activities of an economy. Taxation and government expenditure are two main instruments of fiscal policy. This paper is aimed to analyze and update the effects of different instruments of fiscal policy on inflation in Pakistan economy. The data time span for this study is 1979-2013. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation is analyzed by utilizing the Bounds testing procedure and ARDL approach of co-integration which is a better estimation technique for small sample size. It is found that investment negatively and significantly affect the inflation rate. The outcomes of the study show that both types of taxes (direct and indirect are causing to increase the inflation level while fiscal deficit is also one of the reasons to increase the inflation in the country. The study proposed that government should decrease the level of expenditure to reduce the level of fiscal deficit and investment have to be promoted to decrease the inflation in the country. Furthermore, it is also suggested to decrease the level of taxation for controlling inflation.

Monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy

OpenAIRE

Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Md. Said, Fathin Faezah; Jusoh, Mansor; Md. Thahir, Md. Zyadi

2009-01-01

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in a small open-economy by using backward-looking of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) framework. Since September 1998 until July 2005, Malaysia has implemented a currency pegged to the U.S dollar in responding to the Asian financial crisis. However, since the 21st of July 2005 until at present, the Central Bank of Malaysia (CBM) has eliminated pegging with the U.S dollar and moved to t...

Fear of Floating and Inflation Targeting in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasif Abiyev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to test empirical validity of Fear of Floating hypothesis for Turkey after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We start applying methodologies developed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002 and Ball and Reyes (2004, 2008 to check the probabilities of changes in exchange rate and monetary policy instruments before and after inflation targeting regime. We then use a VAR model to estimate exchange rate pass-through and response of monetary policy instruments to exchange rate shocks before and after inflation targeting regime. VAR model helps to understand the impacts of switch in monetary policy regime on exchange rate pass-through and foreign exchange market interventions. The paper concludes that after the adoption of inflation targeting regime, the exchange rate pass-through still matters for the attainment of inflation targets and the monetary policy do not exhibit a fear of floating practices.

What Drives China's Food-Price Inflation and How does It Affect the Aggregate Inflation?

OpenAIRE

Wenlang Zhang; Daniel Law

2010-01-01

It is typically argued that China's food-price inflation has been mainly driven by supply-side shocks including natural disasters. Our research, however, shows that demand pressures have played a more important role from a medium-term perspective. This suggests surging food prices may call for policy reactions even if non-food-price inflation is tame. Meanwhile, we find food-price inflation has not generated significant second-round effects on non-food-price inflation. In particular, while fo...

Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries

OpenAIRE

Frederic S. Mishkin

2000-01-01

This paper outlines what inflation targeting involves for emerging market/transition countries and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this monetary policy strategy. The discussion suggests that although inflation targeting is not a panacea and may not be appropriate for many emerging market countries, it can be a highly useful monetary policy strategy in a number of them.

Taxation, Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Pakistan

OpenAIRE

Ghulam Rasool Madni

2014-01-01

Fiscal policy has more controversial debate regarding its effectiveness on different macroeconomic activities of an economy. Taxation and government expenditure are two main instruments of fiscal policy. This paper is aimed to analyze and update the effects of different instruments of fiscal policy on inflation in Pakistan economy. The data time span for this study is 1979-2013. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation is analyzed by utilizing the Bounds testing procedure and ARDL approach of...

THE PROSPECT OF INFLATION TARGETING IN KAZAKHSTAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhandos Ybrayev

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Over the last two decades, there has been a significant increase in the number of countries that began to pursue an Inflation Targeting monetary policy framework. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, each of the fifteen newly created independent countries started to develop and run their own autonomous monetary policies. Kazakhstan announced the implementation of an Inflation Targeting policy in August 2015. At the same time, a number of researches show that Inflation Targeting might not work as well for developing countries as it does for developed ones due to certain fundamental differences and preconditions that must be met before the implementation phase. Thus, this paper discusses the case of Kazakhstan as a typical emerging market economy example, examines its ability to respond to various external shocks and identifies the main transmission channels in order to contribute to the knowledge in this particular area. Identification assumptions generate contemporaneous monetary shocks on domestic inflation behavior, which also take into account various features of the small open economy as well as indicate different important transitory and persistent effects. The results show, based on the interpretation of impulse response functions, a positive interest rate shock has an uncertain inflationary impact, which raises questions about the effectiveness of interest rate manipulation in keeping inflation within the given band. In addition, a positive exchange rate shock leads to a stronger upward pressure in inflation rates. Finally, inflation inertia explains a substantial increase in future inflation rates.

National and International Inequalities in Income and Wealth in a Global Growth with Free Trade and National Inflation Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WEI-BIN ZHANG

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study global monetary economic growth with heterogeneous households under free trade. The paper examines dynamics of global and national wealth and income distribution in association with monetary economic growth within an integrated framework. Money is introduced via the cash-in-advance (CIA approach. We show that the dynamics of the world economy (with any number of countries is described by a set of differential equations. We simulate equilibrium of the global economy with three countries and two types of households in each country. We also demonstrate effects of changes in technology and inflation policy. Our model demonstrates, as Grier and Grier (2007 empirically show, that the global economy exhibits absolute divergence in output levels if some determinants of steady state income are different. The study shows that as one country increases its inflation policy, the equilibrium values of the global output, consumption level and physical wealth are enhanced, and the rate of interest is lowered. The country which raises its inflation policy benefits in every aspect, but the other countries suffer in some aspects and benefit in others.

Anisotropic inflation from charged scalar fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Movahed, S.M. Sadegh; Zarei, Moslem

2011-01-01

We consider models of inflation with U(1) gauge fields and charged scalar fields including symmetry breaking potential, chaotic inflation and hybrid inflation. We show that there exist attractor solutions where the anisotropies produced during inflation becomes comparable to the slow-roll parameters. In the models where the inflaton field is a charged scalar field the gauge field becomes highly oscillatory at the end of inflation ending inflation quickly. Furthermore, in charged hybrid inflation the onset of waterfall phase transition at the end of inflation is affected significantly by the evolution of the background gauge field. Rapid oscillations of the gauge field and its coupling to inflaton can have interesting effects on preheating and non-Gaussianities

Exchange rate regimes and inflation: Evidence from India.

OpenAIRE

Mohanty, Biswajit; Bhanumurthy, N.R.

2014-01-01

Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a `policy discipline effect'- restricting money supply growth, and a `credibility effect'- inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the impossibility trillema predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a mo...

Implementing inflation targeting regimes: The case of Poland

OpenAIRE

Gottschalk, Jan; Moore, David

1999-01-01

This paper assesses the prospects for the new Polish monetary policy strategy of inflation targeting. Regarding the general requirements for implementing an inflation targeting strategy it appears that Poland has made sufficient progress in reducing fiscal dominance and hardening budget constraints. The paper also finds that the exchange rate has played a dominant role as a policy instrument, with the linkages between the short-term interest rate and inflation remaining unclear. Given this un...

Estimation of Unobserved Inflation Expectations in India using State-Space Model

OpenAIRE

Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha; Sahu, Sohini; Jha, Saakshi

2016-01-01

Inflation expectations is an important marker for monetary policy makers. India being a new entrant to the group of countries that pursue inflation targeting as its monetary policy objective, estimating the inflation expectation is of paramount importance. This paper estimates the unobserved inflation expectations in India between 1993:Q1 to 2016:Q1 from the Fisher equation relation using the state space approach (Kalman Filter). We find that our results match well with the inflation forecast...

Monetary policy and wage bargaining in the EMU: restrictive ECB policies, high unemployment, nominal wage restraint and inflation above the target

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eckhard Hein

2002-09-01

Full Text Available Assessing the effects of monetary policy and wage bargaining on employment andinflation in the European Monetary Union (EMU, the first step sees development of a Post-Keynesian competitive claims model of inflation with endogenous money. In this model the NAIRU is considered to be a short-run limit to employment enforced by independent and conservative central banks. In the long run, however, the NAIRU will follow actual unemployment and is therefore also dependent on the forces determining aggregate demand, including monetary policies. But the NAIRU may also be reduced through effectively co-ordinated wage bargaining, as has been shown by institutional political economists. Applying these considerations to the economic performance of the EMU, different scenarios determined by wage bargainingcoordination and the European Central Bank's (ECB monetary policies are developed. It is shown that the first phase of the EMU was dominated by uncoordinated wage bargaining across the EMU and an "anti-growth-bias" of theECB. Thus the euro area was plagued with nominal wage restraint, highunemployment and inflation above the ECB target. Economic performance will improve if the ECB abandons its asymmetric monetary strategy. This may be facilitated by a higher degree of effective wage bargaining co-ordination across the EMU.

What Causes Inflation in a Post Communist Economy? Evidence from Ethiopia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dejene Mamo Bekana

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants of inflation for a post communist economy, in the long run as well as in the short run, using time series evidence from Ethiopia and applying the Johnson co integration and Error Correction Mechanisms. A vivid observation of the results shows that the short run determinants of inflation are broad money supply, growth of domestic gross product, real interest rate, budget deficit, Exchange rate, inflation expectation and world price movements. The result of the long run model after co integration is proved using the residual based ducky fuller test and the Johnson co integration tests revealed that broad money supply, government budget deficit, exchange rate and inflation expectation are found to be the major determinants of inflation. The result shows that domestic gross product growth rate has no effect on inflation. To curb inflation, therefore, policy makers need to implement prudential fiscal and monetary policy tools. Inflation expectations need to be tackled by way of transparent and well informed government policies to change consumer perception. Concerning this, it is important to consider targeting monetary and fiscal policy variables and appropriately implanting the set targets.

Optimal inflation for the U.S.

OpenAIRE

Roberto M. Billi

2007-01-01

What is the correctly measured inflation rate that monetary policy should aim for in the long-run? This paper characterizes the optimal inflation rate for the U.S. economy in a New Keynesian sticky-price model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. Real-rate and mark-up shocks jointly determine the optimal inflation rate to be positive but not large. Even allowing for the possibility of extreme model misspecification, the optimal inflation rate is robustly...

Inflation Insurance

OpenAIRE

Zvi Bodie

1989-01-01

A contract to insure $1 against inflation is equivalent to a European call option on the consumer price index. When there is no deductible this call option is equivalent to a forward contract on the CPI. Its price is the difference between the prices of a zero coupon real bond and a zero coupon nominal bond, both free of default risk. Provided that the risk-free real rate of interest is positive, the price of such an inflation insurance policy first rises and then falls with time to maturity....

Predictability of Competing Measures of Core Inflation: An Application for Peru Predictability of Competing Measures of Core Inflation: An Application for Peru

OpenAIRE

Luis F. Zegarra; Eduardo Morón

1999-01-01

A central element of an inflation targeting approach to monetary policy is a proper measure of inflation. The international evidence suggests the use of core inflation measures. In this paper we claim that core inflation should be measured as the underlying trend of inflation that comes from nominal shocks that have no real effect in the long term. However, most of the time core inflation is computed zero weighting observations at the tail of the inflation distribution. Quah and Vahey (1996) ...

Targeting nominal income growth or inflation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Henrik

2002-01-01

Within a simple New Keynesian model emphasizing forward-looking behavior of private agents, I evaluate optimal nominal income growth targeting versus optimal inflation targeting. When the economy is mainly subject to shocks that do not involve monetary policy trade-offs for society, inflation...

Core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alkhareif Ryadh M.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper constructs and analyzes core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia for the period of March 2012 to May 2014 using two alternative approaches: the exclusion method (ex food and housing/rent and the statistical method. The findings of the analysis suggest that the ex food and housing/ rent inflation is more volatile than the overall CPI inflation over the sample period. In contrast, the statistical core inflation is relatively more stable and less volatile. Moreover, the ex food and housing/rent inflation is only weakly correlated with headline inflation, whereas the statistical core inflation exhibits a stronger correlation. This combination of lower volatility and higher correlation with headline inflation makes the statistical method a much better choice for policymakers. From a monetary policy standpoint, using a bundle of core inflation measures, including both properly constructed exclusion and statistical methods, is more desirable, especially when variation across measures is widespread, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.

The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naresh Kumar Sharma

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI has a low degree of credibility within the survey respondents. The study then formulates a model to identify individual elements of the backward-looking expectations in the data. The results suggest that the respondents’ short term expectations for WPI inflation are purely naïve type of expectations, only influenced by respondents earlier period expectations. In the case of CPIIW inflation, the results however suggest that the short-term expectations are not purely naïve type, but also contain adaptive as well as a static forms of expectations. This means that respondents consider their previous forecast errors about CPIIW inflation and draw recent price developments in the CPIIW while forming their overall short-term inflation expectations. This finding provides some formal evidence that the CPI based inflation measure is better suited, than WPI inflation, as a nominal anchor in the RBI’s recent transition to inflation targeting regime. JEL classification: D84, E31, E52, E37, Keywords: Inflation, Inflation expectations, Survey data, Price index, Monetary policy, Forecasting

Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, nonfood price inflation and overall inflation: A case of an emerging market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raphael T Mpofu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that

Private Sector Credit and Inflation Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorna Katusiime

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of inflation volatility on private sector credit growth. The results indicate that private sector credit growth is positively linked to the one period lagged inflation volatility. Given that past monetary policy actions continue to affect the targeted variables due to the substantial lags in the transmission mechanism, the positive response of private sector credit growth to past inflation volatility suggests a credible monetary policy regime in Uganda, which has led to a reduction in the level of macroeconomic uncertainty and the restoration of favorable economic conditions and prospects, thus increasing the demand for credit. Further, the study finds that the lagged private sector credit growth, nominal exchange rate, and inflation have a statistically significant effect on private sector credit growth while financial innovation, interest rates, and GDP growth appear not to be important determinants of private sector credit growth. The robustness of our findings is confirmed by sensitivity checks.

Explosive dome eruptions modulated by periodic gas-driven inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Jeffrey B.; Lyons, John; Andrews, B. J.; Lees, J.M.

2014-01-01

Volcan Santiaguito (Guatemala) “breathes” with extraordinary regularity as the edifice's conduit system accumulates free gas, which periodically vents to the atmosphere. Periodic pressurization controls explosion timing, which nearly always occurs at peak inflation, as detected with tiltmeters. Tilt cycles in January 2012 reveal regular 26 ± 6 min inflation/deflation cycles corresponding to at least ~101 kg/s of gas fluxing the system. Very long period (VLP) earthquakes presage explosions and occur during cycles when inflation rates are most rapid. VLPs locate ~300 m below the vent and indicate mobilization of volatiles, which ascend at ~50 m/s. Rapid gas ascent feeds pyroclast-laden eruptions lasting several minutes and rising to ~1 km. VLPs are not observed during less rapid inflation episodes; instead, gas vents passively through the conduit producing no infrasound and no explosion. These observations intimate that steady gas exsolution and accumulation in shallow reservoirs may drive inflation cycles at open-vent silicic volcanoes.

Eternal inflation

CERN Document Server

Winitzki, Sergei

2009-01-01

This volume is the only monograph covering the exciting and dazzling recent developments in quantum cosmology, including the theory of the "multiverse" and eternal inflation pioneered by A Vilenkin, A Linde, S W Hawking, and others. Written by a leading expert in the field known for his depth and clarity of presentation, the volume presents an overview of 20 years of development of the theory of eternal inflation as well as a comprehensive, research-level introduction into the current methods and problems. This volume is invaluable for researchers as a definitive reference in the rapidly devel

Oil price pass-through into inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Shiu-Sheng

2009-01-01

This paper uses data from 19 industrialized countries to investigate oil price pass-through into inflation across countries and over time. A time-varying pass-through coefficient is estimated and the determinants of the recent declining effects of oil shocks on inflation are investigated. The appreciation of the domestic currency, a more active monetary policy in response to inflation, and a higher degree of trade openness are found to explain the decline in oil price pass-through. (author)

Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goodarzi, Parviz [University of Ayatollah Ozma Borujerdi, Department of Science, Boroujerd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sadjadi, H.M. [University of Tehran, Department of Physics, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-07-15

In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodarzi, Parviz; Sadjadi, H.M.

2017-01-01

In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

OpenAIRE

Naresh Kumar Sharma; Motilal Bicchal

2018-01-01

Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, sugge...

The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazima Ellahi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan utilizing a data set over 1975 to 2015. The empirical analysis is carried out with application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag methodology. The estimation methods find the short run and long run impact of each variable on inflation and also found the speed of adjustment. Analysis used money supply, national expenditure, imports of goods and services and GDP growth as exogenous variables while taking inflation as an endogenous variable. Major preliminary findings suggested that money supply and national expenditure have significant effect on inflation, where national expenditure has a positive impact on inflation but money supply implies negative impact on inflation. Moreover, GDP growth has negative impact on inflation and imports of goods and services have positive impact on inflation. The findings for short run effect showed that none of the variable proves to be a significant determinant of inflation in short run. In sum, study suggested a few policy recommendations for keeping the inflation at level required for country to grow.

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Inflation Targeting on the Risk Premium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krušković Borivoje D.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The basis for the conduct of monetary policy is monetary policy strategy. Monetary strategy is necessary for monetary policy makers to analyse all relevant information in order to undertake effective policy actions. Inflation targeting has enabled countries to achieve low inflation in the very short term. Due to this, the financial markets have adjusted their long-term inflation expectations and incorporated them into the interest rate. Risk premiums that compensate for the uncertainty of inflation have fallen. The aim of this paper is to examine how the adoption of inflation targeting affects the movement of the risk premium. The hypothesis we want to test is that the adoption of inflation targeting affects the reduction of the country risk premium by affecting the formation of a more stable macroeconomic environment through a more stable and predictable inflation rate in the medium and long term. The method used for evaluating the regression coefficients is the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM. This method involves the use of conditional moments in endogenous and exogenous variables with a lag as instruments for the assessment of differential equations, while the difference lagged endogenous variables are used as instruments in the levels equation.

Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

2016-01-01

1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

The Effect of Money Supply on the Inflation the Period between 1980-2013 in Turkey Economy

OpenAIRE

İsmail Şahin; Muhammet Karanfil

2015-01-01

To provide the economic stability, in the fight against the inflation problem, various monetary and fiscal policies have been applied in different periods in Turkey. In spite of these policies, inflation has not been taken to the expected level in the certain period. However, in recent years the decline in the inflation has demonstrated that the policies which were implemented were effective. At the end of these policies, the object is achieved partly which, was targeted in the inflation. The...

Money supply growth and inflation – the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svatopluk Kapounek

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this article is to find out whether there is a significant relationship between money supply growth and inflation in the Eurozone. For this reason, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB has been evaluated. Since the establishment of the ECB in January 1999 to May 2003 the ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consisted of three main elements: a quantitative definition of price stability, a prominent role for money in the assessment of risks to price stability (aggregate M3 as a reference value, and a broadly based assessment of the outlook for price developments. Nevertheless, since May 2003 M3 or any other monetary aggregate has lost its prominent role in the ECB‘s strategy. Therefore the nowadays ECB‘s monetary policy strategy consists of a quantitative definition of the primary objective of price stability and an analytical framework based on two pillars – economic analysis and monetary analysis. These two pillars are used by the ECB‘s Governing Council in the overall assessment of risks to price stability and in monetary policy decisions.The empirical part of this article is based on time series correlation between money supply growth and inflation in selected member countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU - Eurozone during the period 1995–2005. The time series are divided into two parts. The first part covers data for selected member countries of the European Union from 1995 till 1998, i.e. before the establishment of the EMU. Whereas the second part includes data for the whole Eurozone since its official start in 1999 to 2005. The time series are adjusted by SARIMA models.

Inflation or unemployment? Who cares?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Lelyveld, Iman

In the last two decades a large number of game-theoretic models describing monetary policy have been used to examine the characteristics of policies over a wide range of 'rules of the game'. Regardless of the specification of the model, the degree of inflation aversion - relative to unemployment -

IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY AND RISK PERCEPTION IN EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IMPLEMENTING INFLATION TARGETING REGIME?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aydan Kansu

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Following the recent financial crisis of August 2007 in US, economists and policy makers hold the view that monetary policy may have an effect on real economic activity through ‘risk taking channel’ which indicates the risk behavior of economic agents and the linkages between monetary policy and perception of risk. In this study, we examine whether changes in monetary policy stance influence the risk perceptions and generates any impact on the real side of the economy in Czech Republic, Poland, Russian Federation and Turkey implementing inflation targeting. In the context of a SVAR model, we find that monetary policy does not affect risk perception reflected by stock price variability and any attempt by central banks to stimulate real economic activity through monetary policy also appears to be ineffective in these countries.

Theoretical aspects of inflation targeting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Obradović Jelena

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Inflation targeting is one of the possible strategies used by central banks during conducting monetary policy. The basic characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of inflation targeting will be presented in this paper. The focus is on the the presentation and interpretation of the understanding of this strategy from the perspective of monetarist and Keynesian theory, the theory of rational expectations, and methodological analysis of the strategy in light of the game theory using payoff matrix.

Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform and Inflation Stabilization in Romania.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Budina, N.

2001-01-01

Investigates the consistency between inflation, monetary reform and fiscal policy in Romania. Offers a framework for the assessment of the fiscal and monetary interactions of Romanian economy; Shows impact of inflation on fiscal inconsistency measure; Considers importance of consolidating public

Why Credit Deflation Is More Likely than Mass Inflation: An Austrian Overview of the Inflation Versus Deflation Debate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijay Boyapati

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This article provides an Austrian overview of the inflation versus deflation debate which has captured the attention of the economics profession in the years following the US housing bust. Much of the Austrian analysis of this debate has focused on the massive expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and attendant creation of new reserves. Several Austrian economists have predicted that the creation of new reserves will cause a massive increase in inflation. The money multiplier theory, on which these predictions are based, is criticized and an overview of the Austrian business cycle theory is provided to explain why banks are reluctant to issue new credit. Finally, an analysis of the politics of deflation is provided and a class theory is presented to explain why a policy of controlled credit deflation is more likely than a policy that would result in mass inflation or hyperinflation.

The Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

OpenAIRE

Nazima Ellahi

2017-01-01

Inflation is not just a rise in general price level, but a much more complex phenomenon. It is well admitted fact that mild inflation is natural and a greasing factor to the wheel of economy and commerce and on the other hand, high inflation causes negative impact on economy. In order to formulate policies regarding its control and keeping it at a moderate level, it is necessary to explore its major determinants. Present study is an attempt to discuss the determinants of inflation in Pakistan...

Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Šoškić Dejan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchmüller, W. [DESY, Notkestrasse 85, 22607 Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); Schmitz, K., E-mail: wilfried.buchmueller@desy.de, E-mail: valerie.domcke@sissa.it, E-mail: kai.schmitz@ipmu.jp [Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa (Japan)

2014-11-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchmueller, W. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Domcke, V. [SISSA/INFN, Triest (Italy); Schmitz, K. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), Kashiwa (Japan)

2014-08-15

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchmueller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

2014-08-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

2014-01-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of 'chaotic inflation'

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

2014-11-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inflaton field and the self-interaction of the waterfall field. During the final stage of inflation, the effective inflaton potential is essentially quadratic, which leads to the standard predictions of chaotic inflation. The model illustrates how the decay of a false vacuum of GUT-scale energy density can end in a period of `chaotic inflation'.

An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barış Soybilgen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.

Does the central bank directly respond to output and 
inflation uncertainties in Turkey?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pelin Öge Güney

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the role of inflation and output uncertainties on monetary policy rules in Turkey for the period 2002:01–2014:02. In the literature it is suggested that uncertainty is a key element in monetary policy, hence empirical models of monetary policy should regard to uncertainty. In this study, we estimate a forward-looking monetary reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT. In addition to inflation and output gap variables, our reaction function also includes both the inflation and output growth uncertainties. Our results suggest that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT concerns with mainly price stability and significantly responds to inflation and growth uncertainties.

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey

OpenAIRE

dogru, bulent

2014-01-01

Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation ...

Learning, Inflation Reduction and Optimal Monetary Policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaling, E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we analyze disinflation in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has to learn the private sector

Replenishment policy for Entropic Order Quantity (EnOQ model with two component demand and partial back-logging under inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhanupriya Dash

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Replenishment policy for entropic order quantity model with two component demand and partial backlogging under inflation is an important subject in the stock management. Methods: In this paper an inventory model for  non-instantaneous  deteriorating items with stock dependant consumption rate and partial back logged in addition the effect of inflection and time value of money on replacement policy with zero lead time consider was developed. Profit maximization model is formulated by considering the effects of partial backlogging under inflation with cash discounts. Further numerical example presented to evaluate the relative performance between the entropic order quantity and EOQ models separately. Numerical example is present to demonstrate the developed model and to illustrate the procedure. Lingo 13.0 version software used to derive optimal order quantity and total cost of inventory. Finally sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to different parameters of the system carried out. Results and conclusions: The obtained inventory model is very useful in retail business. This model can extend to total backorder.

SECOND ROUND EFFECTS AND PASS-THROUGH OF FOOD PRICES TO INFLATION IN KENYA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roseline Nyakerario Misati

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In the recent past, the Kenyan economy experienced persistent inflationary pressures, partly attributed to food price spikes. However, the quantitative role of food prices in inflation is not well understood or formally empirically analyzed in Kenya yet food occupies a weight of 36 percent in the consumer price index and contributes a monthly average of over 40 percent to overall inflation. Based on monthly data covering the period 1997-2012, this paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the relationship between food prices and inflation. The study used gap models and Phillips curve approaches to estimate the passthrough effects of food prices to both overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation. Based on gap models, the results confirm presence of second round effects from food prices to inflation while estimations of the Phillips curve suggest a domestic food price pass-through of 0.49 to overall inflation and 0.38 to non-food non-fuel inflation. The world food prices pass-through to overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation are estimated at 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. Thus this paper recommends usage of headline inflation to estimate trend inflation, enhanced communication to mitigate second round effects and that while monetary policy is very critical in anchoring inflationary expectations, there is mutual gain from a supportive fiscal policy in addressing supply side shocks.

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Won-Am Park

2008-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

"The Consumer Price Index As a Measure of Inflation"

OpenAIRE

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; L. Randall Wray

1996-01-01

As inflation approaches zero, it becomes increasingly important to examine the price indices on which monetary policy is based. The most popularly used aggregate price statistic in the U.S. is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a statistic that appears to be a focal point in monetary policy deliberations. A problem associated with using the CPI, a fixed weight index of the cost-of-living, is that there are likely to be biases in the index as a measure of inflation. In this paper we use a simple ...

Sovereign default and the stability of inflation targeting regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schabert, A.; van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

2011-01-01

We analyse the impact of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy on macroeconomic stability. We find that in the presence of sovereign default beliefs a monetary policy, which aims to stabilize inflation through an active interest rate policy, will destabilize the economy if the feedback

MONETARY POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. EVIDENCE FROM INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Plescau

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of our study is to review the monetary framework and instruments adopted by the inflation-targeting countries in Central and Eastern Europe, from 2005-ownwards. We employ a qualitative approach and develop a comparative analysis of the changes that occurred in the conduct of monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis. The results highlight that the central banks in our sample have adjusted their policy in order to counteract the effects of the financial crisis and adopt different instruments to fulfill this aim. The contribution of our study is twofold. First, we offer a review of the literature regarding the adjustments in the monetary policy after the crisis and their effectiveness. Second, we make a comparative analysis between countries with respect to the path of monetary policy from conventional to unconventional and assess the (potential way back.

INFLATION TARGETING IN EASTERN EUROPE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurian Lungu

2006-05-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the inflation targeting approach in three transition economies, namely Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic with the use of Taylor rules as benchmarks. The three economies considered have been successful at achieving disinflation, but deviations of inflation from its target have been persistent in all cases. Except for the Czech Republic, deviations from the Taylor rule are large and persistent, with Hungary displaying the largest fluctuations. Polish interest rates have consistently exceeded those suggested by the Taylor rule and given the prevalence of high unemployment, these undershootings do not augur well for the stability of monetary policy. Finally, the behaviour of Czech interest rates can be remarkably captured by the simple Taylor rule proposed in this paper, suggesting that the Czech National Bank has been the most successful at stabilising inflation and output around their target levels.

A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilberto Libânio

2010-03-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions. Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A Brad

2015-01-01

Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

Spacetime Curvature and Higgs Stability after Inflation.

Science.gov (United States)

Herranen, M; Markkanen, T; Nurmi, S; Rajantie, A

2015-12-11

We investigate the dynamics of the Higgs field at the end of inflation in the minimal scenario consisting of an inflaton field coupled to the standard model only through the nonminimal gravitational coupling ξ of the Higgs field. Such a coupling is required by renormalization of the standard model in curved space, and in the current scenario also by vacuum stability during high-scale inflation. We find that for ξ≳1, rapidly changing spacetime curvature at the end of inflation leads to significant production of Higgs particles, potentially triggering a transition to a negative-energy Planck scale vacuum state and causing an immediate collapse of the Universe.

Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

OpenAIRE

Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu

2016-01-01

Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. The data are aggregated to construct an inflation expectations index. Results based on the index suggest that expectations are not consistent with the rationality assumption but are, still, more comp...

The Effects of Remittances on Inflation: Evidence from Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. S. Khan

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Like many developing countries, remittances are relatively larger capital inflows in Bangladesh in the recent years. Hence, understanding the impact of remittances on the macroeconomic variables such as inflation is essential for the policy makers of the recipient economy. Incorporating remittances as an exogenous variable to the standard inflation function, this paper verifies how it affects the inflation rate in Bangladesh in the 1972-2010 periods. Applying Vector Autoregressive (VAR techniques, the empirical results find that a one percent increase in remittances inflows increases inflation rate by 2.48 percent in the long run, whereas no significant relationship is evident between these two variables in the short-run in Bangladesh.

Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty

OpenAIRE

LIU Jinquan; ZHENG Tingguo; SUI Jianli

2008-01-01

This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China¡¯s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hy...

Estimating Daily Inflation Using Scanner Data: A Progress Report

OpenAIRE

Kota Watanabe; Tsutomu Watanabe

2014-01-01

We construct a Törnqvist daily price index using Japanese point of sale (POS) scanner data spanning from 1988 to 2013. We find the following. First, the POS based inflation rate tends to be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the CPI inflation rate, although the difference between the two varies over time. Second, the difference between the two measures is greatest from 1992 to 1994, when, following the burst of bubble economy in 1991, the POS inflation rate drops rapidly and turns negati...

Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices And Monetary Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

2014-01-01

-side effects limit the size of the policy rate response to inflation that is consistent with determinacy, so that inflation-targeting policies may not be capable of ensuring REE uniqueness. In this case it is advisable to combine policy rate responses to inflation with an appropriate reaction to the output gap...

TESTING NONLINEAR INFLATION CONVERGENCE FOR THE CENTRAL AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY COMMUNITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanuel Anoruo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses nonlinear unit root testing procedures to examine the issue of inflation convergence for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC member states including Cameron, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. The results from nonlinear STAR unit root tests suggest that inflation differentials for the sample countries are nonlinear and mean reverting processes. These results provide evidence of inflation convergence among countries within CEMAC. The finding of inflation convergence indicates the feasibility of a common monetary policy and/or inflation targeting regime within CEMAC.

Inflation persistence in African countries: Does inflation targeting matter?

OpenAIRE

Phiri, Andrew

2016-01-01

This study investigates inflation persistence in annual CPI inflation collected between 1994 and 2014 for 46 African countries. We group these countries into panels according to whether they are inflation targeters or not and conduct estimations for pre and post inflation targeting periods. Interestingly enough, we find that inflation persistence was much higher for inflation targeters in periods before adopting their inflation targeting regimes and inflation persistence dropped by 40 percent...

Monetary policy and insolvency of economic sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tepavac Rajko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The main task of monetary policy of our central bank is to achieve and preserve stability of prices and currency. Targeted inflation rate has been chosen as operating instrument for gradual realization of low and stable inflation, along with elimination of inflation expectations. Also, a specific inflation corridor is chosen to ensure operations, transparency and ex ante effects of monetary policy. The paper presents analysis on whether there really is a restrictive monetary policy, deflections of real inflation from the programmed one, level of 'restrictiveness' of monetary policy and behavior of bank loans, money supply, nominal and real economic growth. Analysis is carried out and criticism of concepts of monetary regulation of mandatory bank reserves, blocking of financial bank potential through monetary regulation instruments, but also relations between central and business banks through open market policy. Criticism of repo operations and complete disappearance of selective credit policy is provided as well. The problem of almost embedded insolvency of economic sector is highlighted.

The chaotic regime of D-term inflation

OpenAIRE

Buchmüller, W.; Domcke, V.; Schmitz, K.

2014-01-01

We consider D-term inflation for small couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Standard hybrid inflation then ends at a critical value of the inflaton field that exceeds the Planck mass. During the subsequent waterfall transition the inflaton continues its slow-roll motion, whereas the waterfall field rapidly grows by quantum fluctuations. Beyond the decoherence time, the waterfall field becomes classical and approaches a time-dependent minimum, which is determined by the value of the inf...

The Impact of Financial Dollarization on Inflation Targeting: Empirical Evidence from Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabris Nikola

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Serbia has applied inflation targeting against the backdrop of financial dollarization for almost a decade. In such circumstances, efficiency of monetary policy instruments decreases and begs the question of efficiency of the monetary regime efficiency issue. Although there is some empirical testing of financial dollarization effects on monetary policy performance in the inflation targeting regime for some countries, such studies for Serbia mostly cover periods of early application of the regime.

Climate Adaptation and Policy-Induced Inflation of Coastal Property Value

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, Dylan E.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad

2015-01-01

Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities. PMID:25806944

Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dylan E McNamara

Full Text Available Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.

ON ROLE OF INFLATION TARGETING IN RUSSIAN ECONOMY PROGRESS OF LAST YEARS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Егор Николаевич Поляков

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Author of the article gives an explanation of Russian economy slowing down from 4 quarter 2011 till 3 quarter 2013. According to author reasoning the main problem of Russian economy throughout this period of time was growth of real interest rates. The growth of real interest rate is determined by monetary policy, conducted by Central Bank. The main priority of CB is fight against inflation, which is waged by liquidity shrinkage. The bottom-line is fall of inflation and interest rates growth (including lending rate. Real interest rates are growing drastically. In certain branches of economy (for instance manufacturing real interest rates growth amounted to 10 and more percentage points.CB calls this policy inflation targeting. Besides fight against inflation floating ruble is important feature of this policy. The author made a conclusion that floating ruble when hydrocarbons prices are at historical maximum level is the worst recipe for Russian economy which is strongly dependent from hydrocarbons export revenue. The author compares Russian monetary and budget policy with monetary and budget policy of other countries with distorted export structure, for example Saudi Arabia and Norway. The author came to conclusion that Russian monetary and budget policy combination is unique among countries dependent from hydrocarbons export revenues. Result of this monetary and budget policy is vulnerability toward external shocks, tradable sectors noncompetitiveness, close to zero growth rate of economy and deterioration all branches of Russian economy. Zero net of payment balance while high oil price is economic nonsense. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2014-2-7

Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Valentim Machado Vicente

2013-06-01

Full Text Available There is a widespread belief that inflation-linked bonds are a direct source of information about inflation expectations. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing the relationship between break-even inflation (the difference between nominal and real yields and future inflation. The dataset is extracted from Brazilian Treasury bonds covering the period from April 2005 to April 2011. We find that break-even inflation is an unbiased forecast only of the 3-month and 6-month ahead inflation. For medium horizons (12 and 18 months, break-even inflation has weak explanatory power of future inflation. Over long horizons (24 and 30 months, we report a significant, but counterintuitive, negative relationship between the break-even and realized inflation rates.

New type of hill-top inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barvinsky, A.O.; Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute, Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Kamenshchik, A.Yu., E-mail: barvin@td.lpi.ru, E-mail: Alexander.Kamenshchik@bo.infn.it, E-mail: nesterov@td.lpi.ru [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN, via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy)

2016-01-01

We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ε and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.

New type of hill-top inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barvinsky, A.O. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics, Tomsk State University,Lenin Ave. 36, Tomsk 634050 (Russian Federation); Department of Physics and Astronomy, Pacific Institue for Theoretical Physics,University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Kamenshchik, A.Yu. [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); L.D. Landau Institute for Theoretical Physcis,Kosygin str. 2, 119334 Moscow (Russian Federation); Nesterov, D.V. [Theory Department, Lebedev Physics Institute,Leninsky Prospect 53, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

2016-01-20

We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ϵ and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.

Inflation from field theory and string theory perspectives. Matter inflation and slow-walking inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halter, Sebastian

2012-01-01

This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the

Inflation from field theory and string theory perspectives. Matter inflation and slow-walking inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Halter, Sebastian

2012-07-09

This thesis is concerned with aspects of inflation both from a field theory and a string theory perspective. It aims at exploring new approaches to address the problem of moduli destabilization and the η-problem and to realize inflation in the matter sector. The first part is devoted to studying models of inflation in the framework of four-dimensional N=1 supergravity. We begin with investigating a new proposal to solve the problem of moduli destabilization, which seems to force us to choose between low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. This new approach is based on a particular way to couple the modulus to the F-term driving inflation. Using chaotic inflation with a shift symmetry as an example, we show that we can successfully combine low-energy supersymmetry and high-scale inflation. We construct a class of inflation models in N=1 supergravity where the inflaton resides in gauge non-singlet matter fields. These are extensions of a special class of hybrid inflation models, so-called tribrid inflation, where the η-problem can be solved by a Heisenberg symmetry. Compared to previously studied models, we have generalized our models with some inspiration from string theory. We investigate moduli stabilization during inflation and identify situations in which the inflaton slope is dominated by radiative corrections. We outline under which conditions this class of matter inflation models could be embedded into heterotic orbifold compactifications. In doing so, we suggest a new mechanism to stabilize some Kaehler moduli by F-terms for matter fields. In the second part, we consider models of warped D-brane inflation on a family of ten-dimensional supergravity backgrounds. We consider inflation along the radial direction near the tip of the warped throat and show that generically an inflection point arises for the inflaton potential, which is related to an inflection point of the dilaton profile. A universal scaling behaviour with the parameters of the

Inflation, its Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India

OpenAIRE

Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni

2013-01-01

This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL(1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility alone (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation ...

Analyzing Inflation and Its Control: A Resource Guide. Economics-Political Science Series.

Science.gov (United States)

Salemi, Michael K.; Leak, Sarah

Background information for teachers on inflation and self-contained learning activities to help students view inflation from both economic and political perspectives are provided. The introduction contains economics and political science frameworks for analyzing policy issues. How to integrate economics and political science is also discussed.…

Nelene Ehlers and Rudi Steinbach - WP/07/06- The formation of inflation expectations in South Africa

OpenAIRE

Nelene Ehlers; Rudi Steinbach

2007-01-01

Abstract- A key factor in the inflation-targeting regime is the psychological process by which individuals and firms form their expectations of future inflation. From a monetary policy perspective, it is important to analyse this process, since under full rationality, only unexpected changes in inflation will affect real variables. In this paper, data from both the Bureau for Economic Research’s Inflation Expectations Survey and the Reuters Inflation Expectations Survey are evaluated, over di...

Towards a formal link between inflation perceptions and inflation ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper reports the finding of a survey of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa undertaken in 2014. This survey posed questions on perceptions of past inflation (historic inflation) and expectations of future inflation to the same respondents and determined linkages between historic views and ...

The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radukić Snežana

2015-05-01

Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

Inflation Volatility and the Inflation-Growth Tradeoff in India

OpenAIRE

Raghbendra Jha; Varsha S. Kulkarni

2012-01-01

This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using ECM models. Output gap affects change in expected inflation volatility along (in the ECM model) and not in the other models. Major det...

Eternal hilltop inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barenboim, Gabriela; Park, Wan-Il; Kinney, William H.

2016-01-01

We consider eternal inflation in hilltop-type inflation models, favored by current data, in which the scalar field in inflation rolls off of a local maximum of the potential. Unlike chaotic or plateau-type inflation models, in hilltop inflation the region of field space which supports eternal inflation is finite, and the expansion rate H EI during eternal inflation is almost exactly the same as the expansion rate H * during slow roll inflation. Therefore, in any given Hubble volume, there is a finite and calculable expectation value for the lifetime of the ''eternal'' inflation phase, during which quantum flucutations dominate over classical field evolution. We show that despite this, inflation in hilltop models is nonetheless eternal in the sense that the volume of the spacetime at any finite time is exponentially dominated by regions which continue to inflate. This is true regardless of the energy scale of inflation, and eternal inflation is supported for inflation at arbitrarily low energy scale.

INFLATE: INFlate Landing Apparatus Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Koryanov, V. V. K.; Da-Poian, V. D. P.

2018-02-01

Our project, named INFLATE (INFlatable Landing Apparatus Technology), aims at reducing space landing risks and constraints and so optimizing space missions (reducing cost, mass, and risk and in the same time improving performance).

Inflation Aversion and the Optimal Inflation Tax

OpenAIRE

Gaowang Wang; Heng-fu Zou

2011-01-01

The optimal inflation tax is reexamined in the framework of dynamic second best economy populated by individuals with inflation aversion. A simple formula for the optimal inflation rate is derived. Different from the literature, it is shown that if the marginal excess burden of other distorting taxes approaches zero, Friedman's rule for optimum quantity of money is not optimal, and the optimal inflation tax is negative; if the marginal excess burden of other taxes is nonzero, the optimal infl...

Flavon inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, S.; King, F.S.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.

2008-04-01

We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflation field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these many possibilities we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition. (author)

Inflation in Nigeria: Possible determinants and remedies to tackle it in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Godly Otto

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The previous Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN had intended to introduce the N5,000.00 currency bill into the Nigerian economy and claimed that such currency bill would help it manage the exchange rate especially against the dollar. This generated a huge outcry from the public especially economists. The major reason was that this introduction would generate inflation and also because the policy ran counter to the cash-less policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria. But to the Central Bank, there was no economic theory to suggest a currency redenomination could cause inflation. This debate once more threw up a need to reexamine the determinants of inflation in Nigeria. Generally, inflation could be cost push or demand pull but what drives the demand or informs cost quite often differ from one economy to another. This study examined the factors responsible for increasing cost of production and spending behaviour in Nigeria. It was able to identify 13 factors that impact on inflation. However, the degree of impact of each factor is left for another study. The study recommends that government should concentrate on providing social infrastructure that would encourage the private sector to invest and expand output, taking advantage of existing unemployed resources. This would help to stem inflation in Nigeria which is usually caused by scarcity

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

Optimal pricing and replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items with backlogging and trade credit under inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Sundara Rajan, R.; Uthayakumar, R.

2017-12-01

In this paper we develop an economic order quantity model to investigate the optimal replenishment policies for instantaneous deteriorating items under inflation and trade credit. Demand rate is a linear function of selling price and decreases negative exponentially with time over a finite planning horizon. Shortages are allowed and partially backlogged. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the optimal selling price, optimal order quantity and optimal replenishment time. An easy-to-use algorithm is developed to determine the optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. We also provide optimal present value of profit when shortages are completely backlogged as a special case. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the algorithm provided to obtain optimal profit. And we also obtain managerial implications from numerical examples to substantiate our model. The results show that there is an improvement in total profit from complete backlogging rather than the items being partially backlogged.

An Autoregressive and Distributed Lag Model Approach to Inflation in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This study scrutinized the precursors of Inflation in Nigeria between the periods 1980 to 2014. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was engaged to test for stationarity of the variables while the Autoregressive and Distributed lag (ARDL Model was applied to capture the affiliation between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables. Our findings revealed that there exists a long run relationship between Inflation, money supply, interest rate, GDP per capita and exchange rate in Nigeria while in the short run, money supply has a significant positive one period lag effect on Inflation and Interest Rate also has a significant negative one period lag influence on Inflation in Nigeria. Recommendations are that in the short run, monetary policies should be geared towards the control of money supply and interest rate in Nigeria in other to regulate Inflation and also, the Nigerian economy can afford to vary any of human capital development or technological advancement to boost productivity without causing inflation as GDP per capita proved insignificant in the short run.

An EOQ model for a deteriorating item with non-linear demand under inflation and a trade credit policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manna S.K.

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an infinite time-horizon deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ inventory model with deterioration based on discounted cash flows (DCF approach where demand rate is assumed to be non-linear over time. The effects of inflation and time-value of money are also taken into account under a trade-credit policy of type "α/T1 net T". The results are illustrated with a numerical example. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to the parameters of the system is carried out.

Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper reports the results of a multinomial analysis of inflation perceptions and inflation expectations in South Africa. Inflation perceptions surveys among South African individuals have been undertaken since 2006. The introduction of these surveys followed on domestic inflation expectation surveys conducted in 2000, ...

Inflation,Inflation Variability, and Output Performance. Venezuela 1951-2002

OpenAIRE

Olivo, Victor

2014-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between the level of inflation, inflation variability, and output performance in the Venezuelan economy for the period 1951-2002. The paper examines the mechanism through which higher inflation translates into lower non-oil real GDP growth. We find empirical evidence that supports Friedman's (1977) contention that higher inflation produces more inflation volatility /uncertainty that leads to relative price variability that in turn, is harmful for the prope...

Inflation in the Universe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barrow, J.D.; California Univ., Berkeley; Turner, M.S.; Chicago Univ., IL

1981-01-01

The problems of explaining the observed isotropy, homogeneity, flatness and specific entropy of the Universe are discussed in the context of an inflationary Universe which has recently been suggested. It is shown that the isotropy cannot be ignored as a Universe with a large amount of anisotropy will not undergo the inflationary phase. A Universe with only moderate anistropy will undergo inflation and will be rapidly isotropized. (U.K.)

Flavon inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antusch, S. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Muenchen (Germany); King, S.F.; Malinsky, M. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Velasco-Sevilla, L. [ICTP, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34014 (Italy)], E-mail: lvelasco@ictp.it; Zavala, I. [CPT and IPPP, Durham University, South Road, DH1 3LE, Durham (United Kingdom)

2008-08-14

We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A{sub 4} or {delta}{sub 27}, and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition.

Flavon inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, S.; King, S.F.; Malinsky, M.; Velasco-Sevilla, L.; Zavala, I.

2008-01-01

We propose an entirely new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry responsible for the generation of the effective quark and lepton Yukawa couplings. We show that the Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, called flavons, are natural candidates for the inflaton field in new inflation, or the waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possibilities for inflation, all linked to the physics of flavour, with interesting cosmological and phenomenological implications. Out of these, we discuss two examples which realise flavon inflation: a model of new inflation based on the discrete non-Abelian family symmetry group A 4 or Δ 27 , and a model of hybrid inflation embedded in an existing flavour model with a continuous SU(3) family symmetry. With the inflation scale and family symmetry breaking scale below the Grand Unification Theory (GUT) scale, these classes of models are free of the monopole (and similar) problems which are often associated with the GUT phase transition

Soft inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Berkin, Andrew L.; Maeda, Kei-Ichi; Yokoyama, Junichi

1990-01-01

The cosmology resulting from two coupled scalar fields was studied, one which is either a new inflation or chaotic type inflation, and the other which has an exponentially decaying potential. Such a potential may appear in the conformally transformed frame of generalized Einstein theories like the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The constraints necessary for successful inflation are examined. Conventional GUT models such as SU(5) were found to be compatible with new inflation, while restrictions on the self-coupling constant are significantly loosened for chaotic inflation.

Generalized Higgs inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Hakubi Center; Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Takahashi, Tomo [Saga Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (JP). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (JP). Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU)

2012-03-15

We study Higgs inflation in the context of generalized G-inflation, i.e., the most general single-field inflation model with second-order field equations. The four variants of Higgs inflation proposed so far in the literature can be accommodated at one time in our framework. We also propose yet another class of Higgs inflation, the running Einstein inflation model, that can naturally arise from the generalized G-inflation framework. As a result, five Higgs inflation models in all should be discussed on an equal footing. Concise formulas for primordial fluctuations in these generalized Higgs inflation models are provided, which will be helpful to determine which model is favored from the future experiments and observations such as the Large Hadron Collider and the Planck satellite.

The productivity-inflation nexus: the case of the Australian mining sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahadevan, R.; Asafu Adjaye, J.

2005-01-01

This paper examines the causal links between productivity growth and two price series given by domestic inflation and the price of mineral products in Australia's mining sector for the period 1968/1969 to 1997/1998. The study also uses a stochastic translog cost frontier to generate improved estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The results indicate negative unidirectional causality running from both price series to mining productivity growth. Regression analysis further shows that domestic inflation has a small but adverse effect on mining productivity growth, thus providing some empirical support for Australia's 'inflation first' monetary policy, at least with respect to the mining sector. Inflation in mineral price, on the other hand, has a greater negative effect on mining productivity growth via mineral export growth. (author)

Inflation Forecast Contracts

OpenAIRE

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

2012-01-01

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

''Old'' locked inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Yang; Piao, Yun-Song; Si, Zong-Guo

2009-01-01

In this paper, we revisit the idea of locked inflation, which does not require a potential satisfying the normal slow-roll condition, but suffers from the problems associated with ''saddle inflation''. We propose a scenario based on locked inflation, however, with an alternative evolution mechanism of the ''waterfall field'' φ. Instead of rolling down along the potential, the φ field will tunnel to end the inflation stage like in old inflation, by which the saddle inflation could be avoided. Further, we study a cascade of old locked inflation, which can be motivated by the string landscape. Our model is based on the consideration of making locked inflation feasible so as to give a working model without slow roll; It also can be seen as an effort to embed the old inflation in string landscape

Small Open Economies with Frictions in Credit Markets: Target inflation or money growth when floating?

OpenAIRE

Paula Hernandez-Verme

2009-01-01

I compare the relative merits of a policy of inflation targeting for small open economies with frictions in financial markets with an alternative floating regime that has a constant rate of domestic money growth. The differences between these two policies appear only in the dynamic properties of equilibria with credit rationing. When the probability of loan repayment is low, inflation targeting eliminates endogenous volatility when compared with a constant money growth, but equilibria remain ...

First-order inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolb, E.W.

1991-01-01

In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been reviewed. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result if inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. (orig.)

Three essays on monetary policy responses to oil price shocks

Science.gov (United States)

Plante, Michael

This dissertation contains three chapters which explore the question of how monetary policy should respond to changes in the price of oil. Each chapter explores the question from the perspective of a different economic environment. The first chapter examines welfare maximizing optimal monetary policy in a closed economy New Keynesian model that is extended to include household and firm demand for oil products, sticky wages, and capital accumulation. When households and firms demand oil products a natural difference arises between the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI, and the GDP deflator. I show that when nominal wages are flexible then the optimal policy places a heavy emphasis on stabilizing the inflation rate of the core CPI. If aggregate nominal wages are sticky then the central bank should focus on stabilizing some combination of core inflation and nominal wage inflation. Under no case examined is it optimal to stabilize either GDP deflator or CPI inflation. The second chapter examines monetary policy responses to oil price shocks in a small open economy with traded and non-traded goods. Oil and labor are used to produce the traded and non-traded goods and prices are sticky in the non-traded sector. I show analytically that the ratio of the oil and labor cost shares in the traded and non-traded sectors is crucial for determining the dynamic behavior of many macroeconomic variables after a rise in the price of oil. A policy of fixed exchange rates can produce higher or lower inflation in the non-traded sector depending upon the ratio. Likewise, a policy that stabilizes the inflation rate of prices in the non-traded sector can cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate. For the proper calibration, a policy that stabilizes core inflation produces results very close to the one that stabilizes non-traded inflation. Analytical results show that the fixed exchange rate always produces a unique solution. The policy of stabilizing non

Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru

OpenAIRE

Liliana Rojas-Suarez

1992-01-01

This paper shows that there is a long-run relationship between the expected rate of depreciation in the black-market-exchange rate and the ratio of domestic to foreign money in Peru: that is, the hypothesis of currency substitution can explain the behavior of real holdings of money in Peru. The paper also shows that, while, the importance of currency substitution as a transmission mechanism through which domestic policies affected the dynamics of inflation was relatively small during a period...

First-order inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL

1990-09-01

In the original proposal, inflation occurred in the process of a strongly first-order phase transition. This model was soon demonstrated to be fatally flawed. Subsequent models for inflation involved phase transitions that were second-order, or perhaps weakly first-order; some even involved no phase transition at all. Recently the possibility of inflation during a strongly first-order phase transition has been revived. In this talk I will discuss some models for first-order inflation, and emphasize unique signatures that result in inflation is realized in a first-order transition. Before discussing first-order inflation, I will briefly review some of the history of inflation to demonstrate how first-order inflation differs from other models. 58 refs., 3 figs

The CPI for rents: a case of understated inflation

OpenAIRE

Theodore M. Crone; Leonard I. Nakamura; Richard Voith

2006-01-01

Until the end of 1977, the method used in the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) to measure rent inflation tended to omit rent increases when units had a change of tenants or were vacant. Since such units typically had more rapid increases in rents than average units, this response bias biased inflation estimates downward. Beginning in 1978, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implemented a series of methodological changes that reduced response bias but substantial bias remained until 1985. We ...

EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCE ON INFLATION: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ihnatov Iulian

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper we try to assess the main external determinants of inflation dynamics in Romania. The literature in the field of measuring inflation dynamics is wealthy and various. There are many developing country - level studies that examine inflation dynamics: Blavy (2004 - Guinea, Duma (2008 - Sri Lanka, Gottschalk et al (2008 - Sierra Leone, Moriyama (2008 - Sudan, Mwase (2006 - Tanzania, Williams and Adedeji (2004 - Dominican Republic, Hossain (2005 - Indonesia, Almounsor (2010 - Yemen. The issue of Romanian inflation dynamics is present in many and various studies, like Hammermann (2007, Pelinescu and Dospinescu (2006, Budina et al (2006 etc. There are no other recent studies that analyze the external determinants on Romanian inflation dynamics. In our paper we estimate an OLS single equation model, using a methodology derived from Almounsor (2010. The empirical analysis uses monthly data from August 2005 to January 2011. The start point of the data series is the moment of a major change in the National Bank of Romania (NBR monetary policy: adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The independent variables used in our research are: harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries, EUR/RON exchange rate, crude oil price index (for analyzing the external shocks effect and M2 monetary aggregate (intermediate money supply as a control variable. The outcomes suggest that inflation in Romania is driven mainly by international price shocks - harmonized consumer price index of EU-25 countries. The EUR/RON exchange rate depreciation has a small influence on domestic inflation. In the short run, the effect of the international oil price is insignificant. Money supply, used here as a control variable, is shown to have a very small effect on inflation in Romania when using OLS regressions. The results show that 66% of the domestic inflation variance is explained by the independent variables in our model.

Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.

2015-01-01

We derive policy implications for an inflation targeting central bank, who's credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. We do this in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous agents and boundely rational expectations. Our assumptions about expectation

Effects of an oil price rise on inflation, output, and the exchange rate in the case of subsidization policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zandi, F R

1982-01-01

Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the price of oil by 400% in 1974, the theory of supply inflation has received a great deal of attention. This study analyses the short and long run effects of an oil price rise on output, inflation, and the exchange rate. The study also analyses dynamic adjustments to the oil price rise in cases where oil-price subsidies are provided and where no subsidies are provided. In the no-subsidy case it is shown that the oil price rise can be inflationary or deflationary. The implications of the policy of subsidizing the price of oil is highlighted by taking account of a government budget constraint which in turn leads to the possibility of monetization as a source of financing the deficit, and thereby to higher output relative to the no subsidy case. As to the price level, the possibility is illustrated that subsidization can actually be more inflationary. The important element giving rise to the above possibility is the subsidy induced increase in the money supply. Exchange-rate flexibility is shown not to insulate the domestic price level against an oil price rise. In the long run the rate of inflation and exchange-rate variations are determined by the rate of growth of the money supply. The dynamic adjustment path of price and output is shown to be determined by the rate of adjustment of inflationary expectations.

Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuncoro Haryo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy

Tensor-to-scalar ratio in punctuated inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, Rajeev Kumar; Sriramkumar, L.; Chingangbam, Pravabati; Souradeep, Tarun

2010-01-01

Recently, we have shown that scalar spectra with lower power on large scales and certain other features naturally occur in punctuated inflation, i.e. the scenario wherein a brief period of rapid roll is sandwiched between two stages of slow roll inflation. Such spectra gain importance due to the fact that they can lead to a better fit of the observed CMB anisotropies, when compared to the conventional, featureless, power law spectrum. In this paper, with examples from the canonical scalar field as well as the tachyonic models, we illustrate that, in punctuated inflation, a drop in the scalar power on large scales is always accompanied by a rise in the tensor power and, hence, an even more pronounced increase in the tensor-to-scalar ratio r on these scales. Interestingly, we find that r actually exceeds well beyond unity over a small range of scales. To our knowledge, this work presents for the first time, examples of single scalar field inflationary models wherein r>>1. This feature opens up interesting possibilities. For instance, we show that the rise in r on large scales translates to a rapid increase in the angular power spectrum, C l BB , of the B-mode polarization of the CMB at the low multipoles. We discuss the observational implications of these results.

Technical Note: Does Core Inflation Help Forecast Total Inflation? Evidence from Colombia

OpenAIRE

John Thornton

1998-01-01

In Colombia core and total inflation are both (1) series, and core inflation is cointegrated with total inflation. Granger causality tests using error correction methodology indicate that divergence of total inflation from core inflation is quickly revers

Euro area Inflation as a Predictor of National Inflation Rates

OpenAIRE

Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba

2013-01-01

The stability of inflation differentials is an important condition for the smooth working of a currency area, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union. In the presence of stability, changes in national inflation rates, while holding Euro-area inflation fixed contemporaneously, should be only transitory. If this is the case, the rate of inflation of the whole area can also be interpreted as a predictor, at least in the long run, of the different national inflation rates. However, in th...

Güvenilirlik İhtiyacı ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Politikaları(The Need of Credibility and Inflation Targeting Policies in Developing Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeynep KARAÇOR

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Since the early years of 1990, new frameworks and the economical preferences change has made countries approach inflation targeting adoptation. In this essay, besides the results and reasons of inflationary targeting, the time incompetency of monetary policies and the problem of reliabilty has been discussed. That the inflationary targeting is only effective policy provided that adopted with determined, willing and consistent monetary policy appears as a result coming from recent countries cases. Therefore, new frameworks and changes seen in economical preferences are found out to be usefull strategic tool for countries.

Warm natural inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

2013-01-01

In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

The Realization Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy Objectives: 2001-2010

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Guogang

2013-01-01

This article explores the realization mechanism for the final and interim targets of China's monetary policy from 2001 to 2010.It finds that the three significant price surges in the ten years were not the results of loose monetary policy While maintaining rapid economic growth,China avoided the inflation linked with excess monetary supply.The introduction of total new lending in the interim targets also showed the maturing of China's monetary policy target system.To improve China's monetary operation,three measures need to te taken:firstly,basing stabilizing monetary policy on the trend of the non-food price index within the CPI;secondly,readjusting the definition of money according the different characteristics of transaction money and reserve money;and thirdly,including yuan exchange rates into the intermediate objectives of monetary policy.

Exponential potentials, scaling solutions and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wands, D.; Copeland, E.J.; Liddle, A.R.

1993-01-01

The goal of driving a period of rapid inflation in the early universe in a model motivated by grand unified theories has been given new life in recent years in the context of extended gravity theories. Extended inflation is one model based on a Brans-Dicke type gravity which can allow a very general first-order phase transition to complete by changing the expansion of the false vacuum dominated universe from an exponential to a power law expansion. This inflation is conformally equivalent to general relativity where the vacuum energy density is exponentially dependent upon a dilaton field. With this in mind, the authors consider in this paper the evolution of a scalar field σ with a potential V(σ) = V 0 exp(-λκ 1/2 σ) in a spatially flat (κ = 0) Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric in the presence of a barotropic (P = (γ - 1)ρ) fluid. Here κ = 8πG, and λ is a dimensionless constant describing the steepness of the potential. It is well known that if the potential is sufficiently flat (λ small), the energy density of the scalar field dominated and the universe undergoes power law inflation. The behavior of fields with a steep potential seems to be less well known, although the results the authors present here are not new. 11 refs., 2 figs

EURO ZONE AND ITS MONETARY POLICY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorel Dumitru CHIRIŢESCU

2010-03-01

Full Text Available In this article I have tried to make a short presentation of the Euro Zone and it’s monetary policy. At the present moment the Euro Zone has 16 countries that have adopted the Euro as a national currency and also 4 small countries that have monetary agreements with their neighbours. The monetary policy represents all the regulations of the money supply and interest rates adopted by the European Central Bank in order to control the inflation rate and to stabilize a specific currency, in this case, the Euro. Stabilizing the inflation rate to certain levels is the main goal of the monetary policy. The monetary policy is the second policy, next to the fiscal one which in which a government, in this case the European Union’s official bodies, can impact the economic situation of the Eurozone. The fiscal policy represents the way a government spends, borrows or applies different types of taxes. The Monetary policy can be either expansionary, when unemployement and recessions needs to be combated, or contractionary, when inflation is conbated byt raising the interest rates.

Multiple inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, P.J.

1987-01-01

The Theory of Inflation, namely, that at some point the entropy content of the universe was greatly increased, has much promise. It may solve the puzzles of homogeneity and the creation of structure. However, no particle physics model has yet been found that can successfully drive inflation. The difficulty in satisfying the constraint that the isotropy of the microwave background places on the effective potential of prospective models is immense. In this work we have codified the requirements of such models in a most general form. We have carefully calculated the amounts of inflation the various problems of the Standard Model need for their solution. We have derived a completely model independent upper bond on the inflationary Hubble parameter. We have developed a general notation with which to probe the possibilities of Multiple Inflation. We have shown that only in very unlikely circumstances will any evidence of an earlier inflation, survive the de Sitter period of its successor. In particular, it is demonstrated that it is most unlikely that two bouts of inflation will yield high amplitudes of density perturbations on small scales and low amplitudes on large. We conclude that, while multiple inflation will be of great theoretical interest, it is unlikely to have any observational impact

Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience

OpenAIRE

Adrián Armas; Francisco Grippa

2005-01-01

This discusses the unique experience of Peru`s Central Bank with inflation targeting in an economy characterized by a high degree of financial dollarization. The paper outlines how Peru has taken financial dollarization into consideration in the design of monetary policy, then deals with monetary policy implementation and the Central Bank`s strategy for controlling financial dollarization risks. The paper concludes with analysis and lessons drawn from the Peruvian case.

Post Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy: A Study of Britain, Japan and the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Siamak MONADJEMI

2014-05-01

Full Text Available There is now considerable disquiet about the appropriate monetary strategy that central banks should follow in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Several influential commentators have called for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Empirical research examining three major economies demonstrates that inflation targeting was effective prior to the crisis and a more flexible form of targeting may still be appropriate after the crisis.

Bilateral Coordination Strategy of Supply Chain with Bidirectional Option Contracts under Inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nana Wan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As far as the price increase and the demand contraction caused by inflation are concerned, we establish a Stackelberg game model that incorporates bidirectional option contracts and the effect of inflation and derive the optimal ordering and production policies on a one-period two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer. Through using the model of wholesale price contracts as the benchmark, we find that the introduction of bidirectional option contracts can benefit both the supplier and the retailer under inflation scenarios. Based on the conclusions drawn above, we design the bilateral coordination mechanism from the different perspective of two members involved and discuss how bidirectional option contracts should be set to achieve channel coordination under inflation scenarios. Through the sensitivity analysis, we illustrate the effect of inflation on the optimal decision variables and the optimal expected profits of the two parties with bidirectional option contracts.

Preconditions for Introduction and Prospects for Implementation of the Inflation Targeting Regime in Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hladkykh Dmytro M.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the preconditions for introduction, the main problems and prospects for implementation of the inflation targeting regime in Ukraine. In 2014, the country got into a crisis that affected at once the currency market, the banking system and the real sector, resulting in devaluations, bank failures, decreasing GDP, growing prices. One of the responses to the financial challenges was the transition to inflationary targeting, which led to a slowdown in inflation in 2016-2017. Goals of an inflation targeting are both price growth and international reserves. Achieving these goals implies a policy of «expensive money», exclusive smoothing by interventions of excessive fluctuations, lack of fiscal dominance, prudent fiscal policies, and elimination of quasi-fiscal imbalances. The risks of current monetary policy are the slow implementation of reforms, which can stop external lending, «pre-election» increases in social spending, debt burden growth, and the escalation of hostilities in the east of the country. Further actions by the State should include: minimization of monetary emissions, further reduction of the interest rate, providing the positive level of rates by the National Bank of Ukraine in terms of inflation, increased use of compulsory reservation of the funds involved, restriction of sales of domestic bonds and the NBU certificates to banks.

Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Uzagalieva, Ainura

-, 04/01 (2004), s. 1-37 ISSN 1561-2422 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.eerc.ru/details/download.aspx?file_id=3744

Remote inflation as hybrid-like sneutrino/MSSM inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, Tomohiro

2009-01-01

A new scenario of hybrid-like inflation is considered for sneutrino and MSSM fields. Contrary to the usual hybrid inflation model, the direct coupling between a trigger field and the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton field is not necessary for the scenario. The dissipation and the radiation from the sneutrino/MSSM inflaton can be written explicitly by using the Yukawa couplings. Remote inflation does not require the shift symmetry or cancellation in solving the η problem.

Modeling inflation uncertainty in transition economies: The case of Russia and the former Soviet Republics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erkam Serkan

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty in seven transitional economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine which experienced hyper-inflation until the mid-1990s. This linkage is investigated in the ARCH modeling framework by using both conventional Granger noncausality testing and the Holmes-Hutton approach, which has significant small- and large-sample power advantages over the former. The results support the Friedman- Ball hypothesis in Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. The Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis is favored in the Kyrgyz Republic and in the Russian Federation using a different model. In Azerbaijan, greater inflation uncertainty preceded lower rates of inflation, indicative of the strong monetary stabilization policies pursued in this economy.

Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur

2012-01-01

We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries

Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur

2012-08-01

We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ``tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.

Inflation Protected Investment Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirco Mahlstedt

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is presented, which is based on traditional asset classes and Markov-switching models. Different stock market, as well as inflation regimes are identified, and within those regimes, the inflation hedging potential of stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities and gold are investigated. Within each regime, we determine optimal investment portfolios driven by the investment idea of protection from losses due to changing inflation if inflation is rising or high, but decoupling the performance from inflation if inflation is low. The results clearly indicate that these asset classes behave differently in different stock market and inflation regimes. Whereas in the long-run, we agree with the general opinion in the literature that stocks and bonds are a suitable hedge against inflation, we observe for short time horizons that the hedging potential of each asset class, especially of real estate and commodities, depend strongly on the state of the current market environment. Thus, our approach provides a possible explanation for different statements in the literature regarding the inflation hedging properties of these asset classes. A dynamic inflation-protected investment strategy is developed, which combines inflation protection and upside potential. This strategy outperforms standard buy-and-hold strategies, as well as the well-known 1 N -portfolio.

Non-Stationary Inflation and the Markup: an Overview of the Research and some Implications for Policy

OpenAIRE

Bill Russell

2006-01-01

This paper reports on research into the negative relationship between inflation and the markup. It is argued that this relationship can be thought of as ‘long-run’ in nature which suggests that inflation has a persistent effect on the markup and, therefore, the real wage. A ‘rule of thumb’ from the estimates indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in inflation (as occurred worldwide in the 1970s) is associated with around a 7 per cent fall in the markup accompanied by a similar increase ...

Finding optimal measures of core inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Uzagalieva, Ainura

-, č. 261 (2005), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : Kyrgyz Republic * core inflation * monetary policy Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp261.pdf

Pseudosmooth tribrid inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David; Rehman, Mansoor Ur, E-mail: stefan.antusch@unibas.ch, E-mail: david.nolde@unibas.ch, E-mail: mansoor-ur.rehman@unibas.ch [Department of Physics, University of Basel, Klingelbergstr. 82, CH-4056 Basel (Switzerland)

2012-08-01

We explore a new class of supersymmetric models of inflation where the inflaton is realised as a combination of a Higgs field and (gauge non-singlet) matter fields, using a ''tribrid'' structure of the superpotential. Inflation is associated with a phase transition around GUT scale energies. The inflationary trajectory already preselects the later vacuum after inflation, which has the advantage of automatically avoiding the production of dangerous topological defects at the end of inflation. While at first sight the models look similar to smooth inflation, they feature a waterfall and are therefore only pseudosmooth. The new class of models offers novel possibilities for realising inflation in close contact with particle physics, for instance with supersymmetric GUTs or with supersymmetric flavour models based on family symmetries.

Is Inflation in India an Attractor of Inflation in Nepal?

OpenAIRE

Edimon Ginting

2007-01-01

The paper attempts to answer some important questions around the inflationary process in Nepal, particularly the transmission of inflation from India. Because the Nepali currency is pegged to the Indian rupee and the two countries share an open border, price developments in Nepal would be expected to mirror to those in India. The results show that inflation in India and inflation in Nepal tend to converge in the long run. Our estimates indicate that the passthrough of inflation from India to ...

Does political instability lead to higher and more volatile inflation?: A panel data analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aisen Ari

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Economists generally accept the proposition that high and volatile inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society’s welfare. Furthermore studies have shown that inflation is harmful to economic growth. However determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a broad dataset covering over 100 countries for the period 1975-1997 and using dynamic and static panel data econometric techniques, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with both higher inflation levels and volatility. Not only does this paper advance the political economy literature establishing a relationship between inflation moments and political instability, but it also has important policy implications regarding the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

Fluxbrane Inflation

CERN Document Server

Hebecker, Arthur; Lust, Dieter; Steinfurt, Stephan; Weigand, Timo

2012-01-01

As a first step towards inflation in genuinely F-theoretic setups, we propose a scenario where the inflaton is the relative position of two 7-branes on holomorphic 4-cycles. Non-supersymmetric gauge flux induces an attractive inter-brane potential. The latter is sufficiently flat in the supergravity regime of large volume moduli. Thus, in contrast to brane-antibrane inflation, fluxbrane inflation does not require warping. We calculate the inflaton potential both in the supergravity approximation and via an open-string one-loop computation on toroidal backgrounds. This leads us to propose a generalisation to genuine Calabi-Yau manifolds. We also comment on competing F-term effects. The end of inflation is marked by the condensation of tachyonic recombination fields between the 7-branes, triggering the formation of a bound state described as a stable extension along the 7-brane divisor. Hence our model fits in the framework of hybrid D-term inflation. We work out the main phenomenological properties of our D-te...

Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-08-01

The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Navoda Dhananjika Edirisinghe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Maintaining price stability is one of the primary objectives of monetary policy in any economy as price instability, particularly high inflation, will cause to reduce economic growth by reducing investments and productivity growth. Therefore, investigating the existence of Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle is a necessary requirement in order to understand the nature, extent and dynamics of effective monetary policies in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to investigate the existence of short run and long run Fisher Effect and Price Puzzle in Sri Lanka. The results from co-integration technique, Error Correction Model (ECM which employed in the study suggest that in Sri Lanka, nominal interest rates fully adjust for expected inflation in long-run. But in short-run, a significant positive association between nominal interest rates and expected inflation is there with absence of full Fisher Effect. Moreover the analysis has been extended and identified the existence of the Price Puzzle both in a short run and long run. Therefore, changes in monetary instruments do not appear to be completely effective in meeting the goal of low inflation. In order to solve this problem what we can recommend is, Sri Lanka should move towards inflation-targeting monetary policy system.

Estimating core inflation : the role of oil price shocks and imported inflation

OpenAIRE

Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane

1997-01-01

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that ...

Eternal extended inflation and graceful exit from old inflation without Jordan-Brans-Dicke

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linde, A.

1990-01-01

Recently a possible solution to the graceful exit problem of the old inflation was proposed in the context of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory (extended inflation). In this paper we will argue that inflation in this theory occurs in a most natural way if it starts near the Planck density, as in the standard version of chaotic inflation. With most natural initial conditions, the inflationary universe in the JBD theory enters the stage of permanent reproduction of new inflationary domains (eternal extended inflation). In order to realize the extended inflation scenario at least two classical scalar fields driving inflation are necessary, as distinct from the simplest versions of new and chaotic inflation. It is shown that in the theory of two scalar fields one can solve the graceful exit problem even without modifying the Einstein gravity theory, due to the possibility that the decay rate of the false vacuum in old inflation depends on the value of the second scalar field and hence on time. (orig.)

Magnetic Inflation and Stellar Mass. II. On the Radii of Single, Rapidly Rotating, Fully Convective M-Dwarf Stars

Science.gov (United States)

Kesseli, Aurora Y.; Muirhead, Philip S.; Mann, Andrew W.; Mace, Greg

2018-06-01

Main-sequence, fully convective M dwarfs in eclipsing binaries are observed to be larger than stellar evolutionary models predict by as much as 10%–15%. A proposed explanation for this discrepancy involves effects from strong magnetic fields, induced by rapid rotation via the dynamo process. Although, a handful of single, slowly rotating M dwarfs with radius measurements from interferometry also appear to be larger than models predict, suggesting that rotation or binarity specifically may not be the sole cause of the discrepancy. We test whether single, rapidly rotating, fully convective stars are also larger than expected by measuring their R\\sin i distribution. We combine photometric rotation periods from the literature with rotational broadening (v\\sin i) measurements reported in this work for a sample of 88 rapidly rotating M dwarf stars. Using a Bayesian framework, we find that stellar evolutionary models underestimate the radii by 10 % {--}15{ % }-2.5+3, but that at higher masses (0.18 theory is 13%–18%, and we argue that the discrepancy is unlikely to be due to effects from age. Furthermore, we find no statistically significant radius discrepancy between our sample and the handful of M dwarfs with interferometric radii. We conclude that neither rotation nor binarity are responsible for the inflated radii of fully convective M dwarfs, and that all fully convective M dwarfs are larger than models predict.

Double inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silk, J.; Turner, M.S.

1986-04-01

The Zel'dovich spectrum of adiabatic density perturbations is a generic prediction of inflation. There is increasing evidence that when the spectrum is normalized by observational data on small scales, there is not enough power on large scales to account for the observed large-scale structure in the Universe. Decoupling the spectrum on large and small scales could solve this problem. As a means of decoupling the large and small scales we propose double inflation (i.e., two episodes of inflation). In this scenario the spectrum on large scales is determined by the first episode of inflation and those on small scales by a second episode of inflation. We present three models for such a scenario. By nearly saturating the large angular-scale cosmic microwave anisotropy bound, we can easily account for the observed large-scale structure. We take the perturbations on small scales to be very large, deltarho/rho approx. = 0.1 to 0.01, which results in the production of primordial black holes (PBHs), early formation of structure, reionization of the Universe, and a rich array of astrophysical events. The Ω-problem is also addressed by our scenario. Allowing the density perturbations produced by the second episode of inflation to be large also lessens the fine-tuning required in the scalar potential and makes reheating much easier. We briefly speculate on the possibility that the second episode of inflation proceeds through the nucleation of bubbles, which today manifest themselves as empty bubbles whose surfaces are covered with galaxies. 37 refs., 1 fig

Unstable Foundations: Assets Markets, Inflation Targets, and Canada's 2011 Policy Choices

OpenAIRE

David Laidler; Robin Banerjee

2008-01-01

As a 2011 deadline approaches for reform or renewal of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting program, questions arise about how the Bank's responsibilities for ensuring the financial system's stability are exercised under such a regime. The current financial crisis underlines the urgency of these issues.

Two-field axion-monodromy hybrid inflation model: Dante's Waterfall

Science.gov (United States)

Carone, Christopher D.; Erlich, Joshua; Sensharma, Anuraag; Wang, Zhen

2015-02-01

We describe a hybrid axion-monodromy inflation model motivated by the Dante's Inferno scenario. In Dante's Inferno, a two-field potential features a stable trench along which a linear combination of the two fields slowly rolls, rendering the dynamics essentially identical to that of single-field chaotic inflation. A shift symmetry allows for the Lyth bound to be effectively evaded as in other axion-monodromy models. In our proposal, the potential is concave downward near the origin and the inflaton trajectory is a gradual downward spiral, ending at a point where the trench becomes unstable. There, the fields begin falling rapidly towards the minimum of the potential and inflation terminates as in a hybrid model. We find parameter choices that reproduce observed features of the cosmic microwave background, and discuss our model in light of recent results from the BICEP2 and Planck experiments.

PRICE-LEVEL TARGETING – A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO INFLATION TARGETING?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulian Vasile Popescu

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The recent financial crisis that has led some central banks reaching the zero lower bound of their interest rate to use unconventional monetary policy instruments, has brought to the forefront theacademic discussions on the shift from inflation targeting (IT to price level targeting. This paper provides a comparative analysis on IT strategy and targeting the price level, assesses the implications and highlights the challenges of an eventual transition to a new monetary policy strategy. Balancing the advantages (mainly better anchored inflation expectations and disadvantages (communication difficulties generated by following a potential price-level targeting strategy and the necessary prerequisites for its functionality (predictive agents, fully familiar with the implications of such a strategy and with complete confidence in themonetary authority has led us to the conclusion that there is no common acceptance that price level targeting strategy might replace the present IT framework.

Inflation targeting and inflation performance : a comparative analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Samarina, Anna; De Haan, Jakob; Terpstra, M.

2014-01-01

This article examines how the impact of inflation targeting on inflation performance depends on the choice of country samples, adoption dates, time periods and methodological approaches. We apply two different estimation methods - difference-in-differences and propensity score matching - for our

How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence on Inflation Targeting Countries

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horváth, Roman; Baxa, Jaromír; Vašíček, B.

2014-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 3 (2014), s. 593-630 ISSN 1365-1005 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Inflation Targeting * Time-Varying Parameter Model * Endogenous Regressors Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.667, year: 2014 http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9205115&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S1365100512000545

Eternal extended inflation and graceful exit from old inflation without Jordan-Brans-Dicke

Science.gov (United States)

Linde, Andrei

1990-10-01

Recently a possible solution to the graceful exit problem of the old inflation was proposed in the context of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory (extended inflation). In this paper we will argue that inflation in this theory occurs in a most natural way if it starts near the Planck density, as in the standard version of chaotic inflation. With most natural initial conditions, the inflationary universe in the JBD theory enters the stage of permanent reproduction of new inflationary domains (eternal extended inflation). In order to realize the extended inflation scenario at least two classical scalar fields driving inflation are necessary, as distinct from the simplest versions of new and chaotic inflation. It is shown that in the theory of two scalar fields one can solve the graceful exit problem even without modifying the Einstein gravity theory, due to the possibility that the decay rate of the false rate vacuum in old inflation depends on the value of the second scalar field and hence on time. Address after 1 September 1990: Physics Department, Stanford University, Varian Building, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

Fast or Slow Rescue Ventilations: A Predictive Model of Gastric Inflation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitz-Clarke, John R

2018-05-01

Rescue ventilations are given during respiratory and cardiac arrest. Tidal volume must assure oxygen delivery; however, excessive pressure applied to an unprotected airway can cause gastric inflation, regurgitation, and pulmonary aspiration. The optimal technique provides mouth pressure and breath duration that minimize gastric inflation. It remains unclear if breath delivery should be fast or slow, and how inflation time affects the division of gas flow between the lungs and esophagus. A physiological model was used to predict and compare rates of gastric inflation and to determine ideal ventilation duration. Gas flow equations were based on standard pulmonary physiology. Gastric inflation was assumed to occur whenever mouth pressure exceeded lower esophageal sphincter pressure. Mouth pressure profiles that approximated mouth-to-mouth ventilation and bag-valve-mask ventilation were investigated. Target tidal volumes were set to 0.6 and 1.0 L. Compliance and airway resistance were varied. Rapid breaths shorter than 1 s required high mouth pressures, up to 25 cm H 2 O to achieve the target lung volume, which thus promotes gastric inflation. Slow breaths longer than 1 s permitted lower mouth pressures but increased time over which airway pressure exceeded lower esophageal sphincter pressure. The gastric volume increased with breath durations that exceeded 1 s for both mouth pressure profiles. Breath duration of ∼1.0 s caused the least gastric inflation in most scenarios. Very low esophageal sphincter pressure favored a shift toward 0.5 s. High resistance and low compliance each increased gastric inflation and altered ideal breath times. The model illustrated a general theory of optimal rescue ventilation. Breath duration with an unprotected airway should be 1 s to minimize gastric inflation. Short pressure-driven and long duration-driven gastric inflation regimens provide a unifying explanation for results in past studies. Copyright © 2018 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerdesmeier Dieter

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Forecasting inflation is of key relevance for central banks, not least because the objective of low and stable inflation is embodied in most central banks’ mandates and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is well known to be subject to long and variable lags. To our best knowledge, central banks around the world use conditional as well as unconditional forecasts for such purposes. Turning to unconditional forecasts, these can be derived on the basis of structural and non-structural models. Among the latter, vector autoregressive (VAR-models are among the most popular tools.

An Economic Recovery with Little Sign of Inflation Acceleration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallett, Andrew Hughes

This paper investigates the possibility that there has been a structural shift in inflation (upward) in the euro area since the recovery in 2014 or 2015. From the perspective of policy, it is important to be sure that any such shifts are significant statistically, sustained or likely to be sustai...

Quintessential inflation: A unified scenario of inflation and dark energy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hossain Wali

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Quintessential inflation unifies inflation and late time acceleration by a single scalar field. Such a scenario, with canonical and non-canonical scalar fields, has been discussed. The scalar field behaves as an inflaton field during inflation and as a quintessence field during late time. Also the predictions of the models has been compared with the recent Planck data.

Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nastari, Plinio Mario

1993-01-01

The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country

Kaehler-driven tribrid inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David

2012-01-01

We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kaehler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in 'pseudosmooth' tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kaehler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and p seudosmooth ) regimes

Towards inflation targeting in Egypt: the relationship between exchange rate and inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aliaa Khodeir

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI and wholesale price index (WPI. In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of ‘flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime’.

Evaluation of energy policy. [Including proposal by American Inst. of Architects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Windheim, L S

1977-02-01

It has been evident to some future-looking individuals for some time that both the availability of abundant cheap energy supplies and the exponential increasing use of unlimited amounts must change. However, official energy policy thinking in the U.S. either fails to believe that 'times have changed' or, if believing, is responding in a deleterious and counter-productive manner. This fantastically pervasive and interactive problem cannot be dealt with in the long run by any policy of 'normalizing', of trying to return to doing more with more. The more successful the U.S. is in maintaining or increasing its total energy consumption under conditions of declining net energy, or striving for simplistic first-law efficiencies without analyzing the second level or entropy effects or realizing that every energy exchange adds a minute but rapidly aggregating portion to the environmental pollution limit--doing more with more--the more rapidly inflation, unemployment, and general economic instability will increase. A small group of architectural professionals, the American Institute of Architects, has proposed an alternate energy strategy, essentially doing more with less which, if pursued, can provide more jobs, less inflation, less pollution, and the potential for better matching of energy task and source (entropy efficiency). This strategy exemplifies the characteristics of an appropriate technology response. It stresses capital and energy as well as labor productivity.

Galileon inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burrage, Clare [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Rham, Claudia de [Univ. de Geneve (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique; Seery, David [Sussex Univ., Brigthon (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Tolley, Andrew J. [Case Western Reserve Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States). Dept. of Physics

2010-09-15

Galileon inflation is a radiatively stable higher derivative model of inflation. The model is determined by a finite number of relevant operators which are protected by a covariant generalization of the Galileon shift symmetry. We show that the nongaussianity of the primordial density perturbation generated during an epoch of Galileon inflation is a particularly powerful observational probe of these models and that, when the speed of sound is small, f{sub NL} can be larger than the usual result f{sub NL} {proportional_to} C{sup -2}{sub s}. (orig.)

Forecasting deflation, intrusion and eruption at inflating volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Stephen; Cortés, Joaquín A.

2018-01-01

A principal goal of volcanology is to successfully forecast the start of volcanic eruptions. This paper introduces a general forecasting method, which relies on a stream of monitoring data and a statistical description of a given threshold criterion for an eruption to start. Specifically we investigate the timing of intrusive and eruptive events at inflating volcanoes. The gradual inflation of the ground surface is a well-known phenomenon at many volcanoes and is attributable to pressurised magma accumulating within a shallow chamber. Inflation usually culminates in a rapid deflation event caused by magma escaping from the chamber to produce a shallow intrusion and, in some cases, a volcanic eruption. We show that the ground elevation during 15 inflation periods at Krafla volcano, Iceland, increased with time towards a limiting value by following a decaying exponential with characteristic timescale τ. The available data for Krafla, Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes show that the duration of inflation (t*) is approximately equal to τ. The distribution of t* / τ values follows a log-logistic distribution in which the central 60% of the data lie between 0.99 deflation event starting during a specified time interval to be estimated. The time window in which there is a specified probability of deflation starting can also be forecast, and forecasts can be updated after each new deformation measurement. The method provides stronger forecasts than one based on the distribution of repose times alone and is transferable to other types of monitoring data and/or other patterns of pre-eruptive unrest.

Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the Eurozone : Evidence from survey data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.

2006-01-01

This paper uses the European Commission's Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers' responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on

Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the eurozone : Evidence from survey data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Lemmen, J.J.G.

2008-01-01

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on

News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

2013-01-01

This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll ). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University...... of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection among news on inflation, consumers’ frequency of expectation updating, and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence provides at best weak support to the epidemiological framework, as most of the consumers who update their expectations do not revise...

PRICE-LEVEL TARGETING – A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO INFLATION TARGETING?

OpenAIRE

Iulian Vasile Popescu

2012-01-01

The recent financial crisis that has led some central banks reaching the zero lower bound of their interest rate to use unconventional monetary policy instruments, has brought to the forefront the academic discussions on the shift from inflation targeting (IT) to price level targeting. This paper provides a comparative analysis on IT strategy and targeting the price level, assesses the implications and highlights the challenges of an eventual transition to a new monetary policy strategy. Bala...

Revival of Legacy of Tooke and Gibson: Implications for Monetary Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rehman Atiq-ur

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The monetary policy rules used by central banks these days are based on the assumption that inflation could be reduced by increasing interest rate. On contrary, Tooke (1774-1858, the forefather of monetary economics, was of the view that the relationship between interest rate and inflation should be positive. His view was based on simple logic, ‘interest is a part of cost, and therefore, the increase in interest rate should increase inflation by increasing cost of production (Tooke, 1838’. Tooke’s view has got support from a number of empirical evidence including Gibson (1923 who found positive correlation between two variables for UK data over a period of 200 years. On the other hand, mainstream economic thinking on which the actual monetary practices are based ignored any possibility of positive relationship between interest rate and inflation throughout the history. The existence of Tooke’s cost side effects of monetary policy is a serious concern because if these effects exist than the use of monetary policy would be counterproductive. Using the data from entire globe, I attempt to explore the nature of relationship between the interest rate and inflation. I found that the data supports the perception of Tooke and Gibson and denies that the effectiveness of monetary policy currently adapted by the correlation between interest rate and inflation is positive. The results are robust to sample size, sample period, and various definitions of interest rate and inflation.

Retrofitting models of inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kain, Ben

2009-01-01

I use the method of retrofitting, developed by Dine, Feng and Silverstein, to generate the scale of inflation dynamically, allowing it to be naturally small. This is a general procedure that may be performed on existing models of supersymmetric inflation. I illustrate this idea on two such models, one an example of F-term inflation and the other an example of D-term inflation.

76 FR 79545 - Cost Accounting Standards: Change to the CAS Applicability Threshold for the Inflation Adjustment...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-22

... Cost Accounting Standards: Change to the CAS Applicability Threshold for the Inflation Adjustment to... Federal Procurement Policy, Cost Accounting Standards Board. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Office of Federal Procurement Policy (OFPP), Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) Board (Board), has adopted, without...

Scale-invariant extended inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holman, R.; Kolb, E.W.; Vadas, S.L.; Wang, Y.

1991-01-01

We propose a model of extended inflation which makes use of the nonlinear realization of scale invariance involving the dilaton coupled to an inflaton field whose potential admits a metastable ground state. The resulting theory resembles the Jordan-Brans-Dicke version of extended inflation. However, quantum effects, in the form of the conformal anomaly, generate a mass for the dilaton, thus allowing our model to evade the problems of the original version of extended inflation. We show that extended inflation can occur for a wide range of inflaton potentials with no fine-tuning of dimensionless parameters required. Furthermore, we also find that it is quite natural for the extended-inflation period to be followed by an epoch of slow-rollover inflation as the dilaton settles down to the minimum of its induced potential

Currency Substitution and Inflation in Peru

OpenAIRE

Liliana Rojas-Suárez

1992-01-01

This paper shows that there is a long-run relationship between the expected rate of depreciation in the black-market-exchange rate and the ratio of domestic to foreign money in Peru; that is, the hypothesis of currency substitution can explain the behavior of real holdings of money in Peru. The paper also shows that, while the importance of currency substitution as a transmission mechanism through which domestic policies affected the dynamics of inflation was relatively small during a period ...

THE HYBRID APPROACH OF INFLATION TARGETING: WHAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR AN EMERGING ECONOMY LIKE TUNISIA?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hella Guerchi Mehri

2016-07-01

Full Text Available After economic crises happening in many emerging countries, flexible exchange rates became a required theoretical condition helping to target inflation. Many countries stopped using exchange rate as an anchor for monetary policy and started using inflation targeting framework. In emerging countries, monetary authorities work to stabilize the exchange rate because of their “fear of floating”. They are against high volatility of interest rate allowing speculative attacks and causing free fluctuations of their national currency. To avoid uncontrolled market movements, they have to choose between active and public exchange rate management and tight inflation targeting. In the same vein, Central bank of Tunisia follows financial measures linked closely to inflation without focusing especially on monetary aggregates in order to study a possible transition to targeting inflation strategy. It uses a simple Taylor rule where interest rates adjustment are guided by the anticipated inflation deviation from its original target and also by the gap between observed and potential GDP.As an emerging economy with a high degree of financial vulnerability, and facing different shocks, Tunisia should adopt a hybrid rule of inflation targeting in an open economy. This hybrid rule explicitly takes into account the evolution of the exchange rate in the reaction function of the central bank.

News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research

75 FR 72935 - Revisions to the Civil Penalty Inflation Adjustment Tables

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-29

... environmental assessment or environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act in the... for inflation the minimum and maximum civil monetary penalty amounts the FAA may impose for violations... civil monetary penalties for violations of the statues it enforces to preserve their deterrent effect...

Attractors, universality, and inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Downes, Sean; Dutta, Bhaskar; Sinha, Kuver

2012-11-01

Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to a power law, 1/Ne3. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.

News on inflation and the epidemiology of inflation expectations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Santoro, E.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households’ inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the

Quasi-open inflation

CERN Document Server

García-Bellido, J; Montes, X; Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

1998-01-01

We show that a large class of two-field models of single-bubble open inflation do not lead to infinite open universes, as it was previously thought, but to an ensemble of very large but finite inflating `islands'. The reason is that the quantum tunneling responsible for the nucleation of the bubble does not occur simultaneously along both field directions and equal-time hypersurfaces in the open universe are not synchronized with equal-density or fixed-field hypersurfaces. The most probable tunneling trajectory corresponds to a zero value of the inflaton field; large values, necessary for the second period of inflation inside the bubble, only arise as localized fluctuations. The interior of each nucleated bubble will contain an infinite number of such inflating regions of comoving size of order $\\gamma^{-1}$, where $\\gamma$ depends on the parameters of the model. Each one of these islands will be a quasi-open universe. Since the volume of the hyperboloid is infinite, inflating islands with all possible values...

A comparison of inflation expectations and inflation credibility in South Africa: results from survey data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jannie Rossouw

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This paper reports a comparison of South African household inflation expectations and inflation credibility surveys undertaken in 2006 and 2008. It tests for possible feed-through between inflation credibility and inflation expectations. It supplements earlier research that focused only on the 2006 survey results. The comparison shows that inflation expectations differed between different income groups in both 2006 and 2008. Inflation credibility differed between male and female respondents, but this difference did not feed through to inflation expectations. More periodic survey data will be required for developing final conclusions on the possibility of feed-through effects. To this end the structure of credibility surveys should be reconsidered, as a large percentage of respondents indicated that they ‘don’t know’ whether the historic rate of inflation is an accurate indication of price increases.

The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?

OpenAIRE

David-Jan Jansen; Jakob de Haan

2007-01-01

Using daily data on inflation-indexed bonds, we find evidence of a negative relationship between ECB communication regarding risks to price stability - measured on the basis of the frequency and strength of the keyword ‘vigilance’ - and changes in euro area break-even inflation. However, this result is only found for the second half of 2005. At that time, the start of a tightening of ECB monetary policy was increasingly likely. This suggests that communication should be closely in line wi...

Economic growth and inflation rate: implications for municipal revenue and health expenditure of the municipalities of Pernambuco, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Feliciano, Marciana; Bezerra, Adriana Falangola Benjamin; Santo, Antônio Carlos Gomes do Espírito

2017-06-01

This paper analyzes the implications of municipal budget revenue growth and the monetary policy's inflation rates goals in the availability of public health resources of municipalities. This is a descriptive, exploratory, quantitative, retrospective and longitudinal cross-sectional study covering the period 2002-2011. We analyzed health financing and expenditure variables in the municipalities of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, describing the trend and the relationship between them. Data showed the growth of the variables and trend towards homogeneity. The exception was for the participation of Intergovernmental Transfers in the Total Health Expenditure of the Municipality. We found a significant correlation between Budget Revenue per capita and Health Expenditure per capita and a strong significant negative correlation between Inflation Rate, Budget Revenue per capita and Health Expenditure per capita. We concluded that increased health expenditure is due more to higher municipal tax revenue than to increased transfers that, in relative terms, did not increase. The strong inverse relationship between inflation rate and the Financing and Expenditure variables show that the monetary policy's inflation goals have restricted health financing to municipalities.

Does a Threshold Inflation Rate Exist? Quantile Inferences for Inflation and Its Variability

OpenAIRE

WenShwo Fang; Stephen M. Miller; Chih-Chuan Yeh

2009-01-01

Using quantile regressions and cross-sectional data from 152 countries, we examine the relationship between inflation and its variability. We consider two measures of inflation – the mean and median – and three different measures of inflation variability – the standard deviation, relative variation, and median deviation. All results from the mean and standard deviation, the mean and relative variation, or the median and the median deviation support both the hypothesis that higher inflation cr...

A blood pressure monitor with robust noise reduction system under linear cuff inflation and deflation.

Science.gov (United States)

Usuda, Takashi; Kobayashi, Naoki; Takeda, Sunao; Kotake, Yoshifumi

2010-01-01

We have developed the non-invasive blood pressure monitor which can measure the blood pressure quickly and robustly. This monitor combines two measurement mode: the linear inflation and the linear deflation. On the inflation mode, we realized a faster measurement with rapid inflation rate. On the deflation mode, we realized a robust noise reduction. When there is neither noise nor arrhythmia, the inflation mode incorporated on this monitor provides precise, quick and comfortable measurement. Once the inflation mode fails to calculate appropriate blood pressure due to body movement or arrhythmia, then the monitor switches automatically to the deflation mode and measure blood pressure by using digital signal processing as wavelet analysis, filter bank, filter combined with FFT and Inverse FFT. The inflation mode succeeded 2440 measurements out of 3099 measurements (79%) in an operating room and a rehabilitation room. The new designed blood pressure monitor provides the fastest measurement for patient with normal circulation and robust measurement for patients with body movement or severe arrhythmia. Also this fast measurement method provides comfortableness for patients.

Nonminimally coupled hybrid inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Seoktae; Minamitsuji, Masato

2011-01-01

We discuss the hybrid inflation model where the inflaton field is nonminimally coupled to gravity. In the Jordan frame, the potential contains φ 4 term as well as terms in the original hybrid inflation model. In our model, inflation can be classified into the type (I) and the type (II). In the type (I), inflation is terminated by the tachyonic instability of the waterfall field, while in the type (II) by the violation of slow-roll conditions. In our model, the reheating takes place only at the true minimum and even in the case (II) finally the tachyonic instability occurs after the termination of inflation. For a negative nonminimal coupling, inflation takes place in the vacuum-dominated region, in the large field region, or near the local minimum/maximum. Inflation in the vacuum-dominated region becomes either the type (I) or (II), resulting in a blue or red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, respectively. Inflation around the local maximum can be either the type (I) or the type (II), which results in the red spectrum of the curvature perturbations, while around the local minimum it must be the type (I), which results in the blue spectrum. In the large field region, to terminate inflation, potential in the Einstein frame must be positively tilted, always resulting in the red spectrum. We then numerically solve the equations of motion to investigate the whole dynamics of inflaton and confirm that the spectrum of curvature perturbations changes from red to blue ones as scales become smaller.

On the theory of interest rate policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heinz-Peter Spahn

2001-12-01

Full Text Available A new consensus in the theory of monetary policy has been reached pointing to the pivotal role of interest rates that are set in accordance with central banks' reaction functions. The decisive criterion of assessing the Taylor rule, inflation and monetary targeting is not the macrotheoretic foundation of these concepts. They serve as "languages" coordinating heterogeneous beliefs among policy makers and private agents, and should also allow rule-based discretionary policies when markets are in need of leadership. Contrary to the ECB dogma, the Fed is right to have an eye on the risks of inflation and unemployment.

CRA Grade Inflation

OpenAIRE

Kenneth H. Thomas

2000-01-01

Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 (CRA) ratings and performance evaluations are the only bank and thrift exam findings disclosed by financial institution regulators. Inflation of CRA ratings has been alleged by community activists for two decades, but there has been no quantification or empirical investigation of grade inflation. Using a unique grade inflation methodology on actual ratings and evaluation data for 1,407 small banks and thrifts under the revised CRA regulations, this paper con...

Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.

-, č. 353 (2008), s. 1-37 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp353.pdf

International Monetary Fund sacrifices higher growth, employment, spending, and public investment in health systems in order to keep inflation unnecessarily low.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowden, Rick

2010-01-01

The International Monetary Fund's response to evidence on the impact of its programs on public health fails to address the fundamental criticisms about its policies. The IMF's demand for borrowers to achieve extremely low inflation targets is founded on very little empirical evidence in the peer-reviewed literature. The low-inflation policies privilege international creditors over domestic debtors and short-term priorities over long-term development goals, and contain high social costs, referred to by economists as a "sacrifice ratio." For example, governments' raising of interest rates to bring down inflation undermines the ability of domestic firms to expand production and employment and thus "sacrifices" higher economic growth and higher tax revenues and unnecessarily constrains domestic health spending. During financial crisis, most countries seek to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, the opposite of the IMF's general advice. Perversely, compliance with IMF policies has become a prerequisite for receiving donor aid. Critiques of the IMF express significant concerns that IMF fiscal and monetary policies are unduly restrictive. Health advocates must weigh in on such matters and pressure their finance ministries, particularly in the G7, to take steps at the level of the IMF Executive Board to revisit and modify its policy framework on deficits and inflation. Such reforms are crucial to enable countries to generate more domestic resources while the global health community searches for ways to support strengthening health system capacity.

Preheating in new inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desroche, Mariel; Felder, Gary N.; Kratochvil, Jan M.; Linde, Andrei

2005-01-01

During the last ten years a detailed investigation of preheating was performed for chaotic inflation and for hybrid inflation. However, nonperturbative effects during reheating in the new inflation scenario remained practically unexplored. We investigate preheating in new inflation, using a combination of analytical and numerical methods. We find that the decay of the homogeneous component of the inflaton field and the resulting process of spontaneous symmetry breaking in the simplest models of new inflation usually occurs almost instantly: for the new inflation on the GUT scale it takes only about 5 oscillations of the field distribution. The decay of the homogeneous inflaton field is so efficient because of a combined effect of tachyonic preheating and parametric resonance. At that stage, the homogeneous oscillating inflaton field decays into a collection of waves of the inflaton field, with a typical wavelength of the order of the inverse inflaton mass. This stage usually is followed by a long stage of decay of the inflaton field into other particles, which can be described by the perturbative approach to reheating after inflation. The resulting reheating temperature typically is rather low

EMPIRICAL APPROACH UPON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND INFLATION IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumiter Florin Cornel

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Central bank independence has become over time one of the key concepts in modern theory and policy. Most economists agree that central bank independence is desirable because it helps achieving and maintaining the long – term goal of price stability. Although one might think about alternative mechanisms to reach lower inflation rates, central bank independence is clearly the most often recomended. The empirical trends upon a more independent central bank with a more transparent and accountable monetary policy regime has emerged in economic literature regarding central banking and monetary economics. In recent years, starting from the Maastricht Treaty central bank independence has become the panacea of the monetary economics and monetary policy approaches. Moreover it is important to analyze and assess the impact of this key issue in central banking upon the inflation performances of the central banks. In this article we provide a qualitative overview upon some recent trends in the central bank independence field: does it still matter? How can be it evaluate and stress it’s impact upon macroeconomic performances, especially upon inflation. As we can observe in the economic literature upon central bank independence there are several approaches to use several indices in order to measure this qualitative and quatitative institutional variables. The most important debate is to eliminate the gap between de jure and de facto independence in order to flatten the measuring of institutional aspects, the legal implication, the constitutional facts and the actual practices of the central banks. Finally, we suggest that according to the new index for measuring central bank independence and inflation targeting index we can evaluate more accurate the degree of the de jure and de facto independence and stress the impact on inflation performance with a case study for ten developed countries and ten developing countries.

Inflation persistence and flexible prices

OpenAIRE

Robert Dittmar; William T. Gavin; Finn E. Kydland

2004-01-01

If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistence, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank’s target. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from ...

Modulus D-term inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Saga, Ikumi; Sumita, Keigo

2018-04-01

We propose a new model of single-field D-term inflation in supergravity, where the inflation is driven by a single modulus field which transforms non-linearly under the U(1) gauge symmetry. One of the notable features of our modulus D-term inflation scenario is that the global U(1) remains unbroken in the vacuum and hence our model is not plagued by the cosmic string problem which can exclude most of the conventional D-term inflation models proposed so far due to the CMB observations.

Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brax, P. [CEA-Saclay, Gif sur Yvette (France). CEA/DSM/SPhT, Unite de Recherche Associee au CNRS, Service de Physique Theorique; Bruck, C. van de [Sheffield Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Applied Mathematics; Davis, A.C.; Davis, S.C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences; Jeannerot, R. [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden (Netherlands); Postma, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)]|[Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-05-15

We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)

Racetrack inflation and cosmic strings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brax, P.; Postma, M.

2008-05-01

We consider the coupling of racetrack inflation to matter fields as realised in the D3/D7 brane system. In particular, we investigate the possibility of cosmic string formation in this system. We find that string formation before or at the onset of racetrack inflation is possible, but they are then inflated away. Furthermore, string formation at the end of inflation is prevented by the presence of the moduli sector. As a consequence, no strings survive racetrack inflation. (orig.)

Kähler-driven tribrid inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Antusch, Stefan; Nolde, David

2012-11-01

We discuss a new class of tribrid inflation models in supergravity, where the shape of the inflaton potential is dominated by effects from the Kähler potential. Tribrid inflation is a variant of hybrid inflation which is particularly suited for connecting inflation with particle physics, since the inflaton can be a D-flat combination of charged fields from the matter sector. In models of tribrid inflation studied so far, the inflaton potential was dominated by either loop corrections or by mixing effects with the waterfall field (as in "pseudosmooth" tribrid inflation). Here we investigate the third possibility, namely that tribrid inflation is dominantly driven by effects from higher-dimensional operators of the Kähler potential. We specify for which superpotential parameters the new regime is realized and show how it can be experimentally distinguished from the other two (loop-driven and "pseudosmooth") regimes.

Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro

OpenAIRE

Orlowski, Lucjan T.

2008-01-01

This paper aims to devise a monetary policy instrument rule that is suitable for open economies undergoing monetary convergence to a common currency area. The open-economy convergence-consistent Taylor rule is forward-looking, consistent with monetary framework based on inflation targeting, containing input variables that are relative to the corresponding variables in the common currency area. The policy rule is tested empirically for three inflation targeting countries converging to the euro...

Signalling, wage controls and monetary disinflation policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Persson, T.

1993-01-01

Focuses on wage control and monetary disinflation policy. How the crucial variable to control is the money supply and wage and price controls should be avoided because of their macroeconomic costs; The two types of government as being low-inflation governments and high-inflation governments; How

Inflation with Fayet-Iliopoulos terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieck, Clemens; Winkler, Martin Wolfgang

2014-08-01

Two of the most attractive realizations of inflation in supergravity are based upon the presence of a constant Fayet-Iliopoulos (FI) term. In D-term hybrid inflation it is the FI term itself which sets the energy scale of inflation. Alternatively, the breaking of a U(1) symmetry induced by the FI term can dynamically generate the quadratic potential of chaotic inflation. The purpose of this note is to study the possible UV embedding of these schemes in terms of the 'field-dependent FI term' related to a string modulus field which is stabilized by a non-perturbative superpotential. We find that in settings where the FI term drives inflation, gauge invariance prevents a decoupling of the modulus from the inflationary dynamics. The resulting inflation models generically contain additional dynamical degrees of freedom compared to D-term hybrid inflation. However, the dynamical realization of chaotic inflation can be obtained in complete analogy to the case of a constant FI term. We present a simple string-inspired toy model of this type.

GRADE INFLATION: An Issue for Higher Education?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald L. CARUTH,

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Grade inflation impacts university credibility, student courses of study, choices of institution, and other areas. There has been an upward shift in grades without a corresponding upward shift in knowledge gained. Some of the most frequently mentioned causes of grade inflation are: Ø student evaluations of professors, Ø student teacher dynamics, Ø merit-based financial aid, and Ø student expectations. Ø Among the reasons for higher student grades on the part of professors are: Ø fear of student evaluations, Ø avoidance of bad relations with students, Ø below average teaching skills,Ø lack of experience, Ø a lack of clearly stated objectives, and Ø job security. While grades are not a perfect answer to assessing student performance in a course they are still the best answer we have for evaluating students. In order to evaluate students more accurately, universities must identify the problems in grading and grading practices. Once this is accomplished new practices can be designed and policies implemented.

No-scale inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Ellis, John; Garcia, Marcos A. G.; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.

2016-05-01

Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on R+{R}2 gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: {n}s∼ 0.96, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio r\\lt 0.1, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.

No-Scale Inflation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Nanopoulos, Dimitri V.; Olive, Keith A.

2016-01-01

Supersymmetry is the most natural framework for physics above the TeV scale, and the corresponding framework for early-Universe cosmology, including inflation, is supergravity. No-scale supergravity emerges from generic string compactifications and yields a non-negative potential, and is therefore a plausible framework for constructing models of inflation. No-scale inflation yields naturally predictions similar to those of the Starobinsky model based on $R + R^2$ gravity, with a tilted spectrum of scalar perturbations: $n_s \\sim 0.96$, and small values of the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio $r < 0.1$, as favoured by Planck and other data on the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Detailed measurements of the CMB may provide insights into the embedding of inflation within string theory as well as its links to collider physics.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE INFLATION: EMPIRICAL SURVEY FOR ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Catalina Adriana Handoreanu

2008-01-01

The influence on price level of changes in exchange rate comeback in the last period in the attention of economists and policy makers. The price level movement due to the changes in the exchange rate is named exchange rate pass-through and is important for the monetary policy and for the exchange rate choice. A reduced passthrough makes the monetary policy more independent and more easily implementation of inflation targeting. This working paper analyzed this phenomenon through a recursive eq...

Inflation Targeting: El Proceso de Reducción de La Inflación en Colombia Inflation Targeting: El Proceso de Reducción de La Inflación en Colombia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Cristina Montoya Osorio

2003-06-01

Full Text Available El esquema de Inflación Objetivo o Inflation Targeting  es un instrumento de políticamonetaria para disminuir la inflación y mantenerla en niveles bajos y estables.  Este régimen ha sido implementado con éxito por muchos países alrededor del mundo entre los cualesestá incluído Colombia, que luego de veinticinco años de tener una inflación moderada ha logrado niveles sostenidos de un digito desde 1999, disminuyendo la incertidumbre de losagentes económicos e incrementando la credibilidad en el banco central. En este artículo se exponen las características principales del régimen de inflación Objetivo,el proceso de implementación en Colombia y la importancia de la publicación de los pronósticos de inflación para el logro de la meta inflacionaria propuesta.Inflation targeting is a monetary policy rule which aims to diminish inflation and keep it atstable low levels.  This rule has been successfully implemented by many countries amongwhich is Colombia.  After twenty-five years of moderate inflation,  Colombia has managedto keep inflation at a one digit level since 1999, reducing uncertainty and increasing thecredibility of the Central Bank.This paper describes the main characteristics of the inflation targeting rule, its process ofimplementation in Colombia and the importance of providing adequate information aboutthe seasonal forecast in order to achieve the aimed inflation target.

Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer: Status and Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Kogut, Alan

2009-01-01

The Primordial Inflation Polarization Explorer is a balloon-borne instrument to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background in order to detect the characteristic signature of gravity waves created during an inflationary epoch in the early universe. PIPER combines cold /I.G K\\ optics, 5120 bolometric detectors, and rapid polarization modulation using VPM grids to achieve both high sensitivity and excellent control of systematic errors. I will discuss the current status and plans for the PIPER instrument.

Chaotic inflation with metric and matter perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feldman, H.A.; Brandenberger, R.H.

1989-01-01

A perturbative scheme to analyze the evolution of both metric and scalar field perturbations in an expanding universe is developed. The scheme is applied to study chaotic inflation with initial metric and scalar field perturbations present. It is shown that initial gravitational perturbations with wavelength smaller than the Hubble radius rapidly decay. The metric simultaneously picks up small perturbations determined by the matter inhomogeneities. Both are frozen in once the wavelength exceeds the Hubble radius. (orig.)

Extended inflation with induced gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Accetta, F.S.; Trester, J.J.; Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520)

1989-01-01

We consider a recently proposed extended model of inflation which improves upon the original old inflation scenario by achieving a graceful exit from the false-vacuum phase. In this paper extended inflation is generalized to include a potential V(phi) for the Brans-Dicke-type field phi. We find that whereas a graceful exit can still be had, the inclusion of a potential places constraints on the percolation time scale for exiting the inflationary phase. Additional constraints on V(phi) and the false-vacuum energy density rho /sub F/ from density and gravitational-wave perturbations are discussed. For initially small values of phi the false vacuum undergoes power-law inflation, while for initially large values of phi the expansion is exponential. Within true-vacuum regions slow-rolling inflation can occur. As a result, this model generically leads to multiple episodes of inflation. We discuss the significance these multiple episodes of inflation may have on the formation of large-scale structure and the production of voids

Inflation Rate Modelling in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rezzy Eko Caraka

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this research were to analyse: (i Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia with parametric regression. (ii Modelling the inflation rate in Indonesia using non-parametric regression spline multivariable (iii Determining the best model the inflation rate in Indonesia (iv Explaining the relationship inflation model parametric and non-parametric regression spline multivariable. Based on the analysis using the two methods mentioned the coefficient of determination (R2 in parametric regression of 65.1% while non-parametric amounted to 99.39%. To begin with, the factor of money supply or money stock, crude oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar is significant on the rate of inflation. The stability of inflation is essential to support sustainable economic development and improve people's welfare. In conclusion, unstable inflation will complicate business planning business activities, both in production and investment activities as well as in the pricing of goods and services produced.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v15i2.3260

Quantum fluctuations and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

1986-05-01

We study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. We consider two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) and find that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. 8 refs., 2 figs

Quantum fluctuations and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bardeen, J.M.; Bublik, G.J.

1987-01-01

The authors study the effect of quantum fluctuations on the roll-down rate of the inflation field in a semiclassical approximation; this is done by treating the inflation field as a classical random field. The quantum fluctuations are simulated by a noise term in the equation of motion. Two different inflationary scenarios (new and chaotic inflation) are considered and it is found that the roll-down rate of the median value of the inflation field is increased by the quantum fluctuations. Non-linear effects may become important in the later stages of the inflationary regime. (author)

THE ACTUAL IMPLICATIONS OF INFLATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murăriţa Ilie

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The authors have started from the idea that inflationary phenomenon is a companion, the cause and the effect of the globalization of poverty in the broader context of world economy globalization. Therefore, starting from a common definition of inflation, the first objective was to identify causal relationships that singularize contemporary inflationary process. After that, attention was focused on the implications of inflation in the current stage, bearing in mind that monetary financial theory and practice are operating with perfectly anticipated inflation or imperfectly anticipated inflation. Inflation has great implications on the long-term contracts and wage contracts.

Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs

Science.gov (United States)

Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu

2012-11-01

We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field.

Alchemical inflation: inflaton turns into Higgs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakayama, Kazunori; Takahashi, Fuminobu

2012-01-01

We propose a new inflation model in which a gauge singlet inflaton turns into the Higgs condensate after inflation. The inflationary path is characterized by a moduli space of supersymmetric vacua spanned by the inflaton and Higgs field. The inflation energy scale is related to the soft supersymmetry breaking, and the Hubble parameter during inflation is smaller than the gravitino mass. The initial condition for the successful inflation is naturally realized by the pre-inflation in which the Higgs plays a role of the waterfall field

The great moderation of inflation: a structural analysis of recent U.S. monetary business cycles

OpenAIRE

Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús

2012-01-01

U.S. inflation has experienced a great moderation in the last two decades. This paper examines the factors behind this and other stylized facts, such as the weaker correlation of inflation and nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). Our findings point at lower exogenous variability of supply-side shocks and, to a lower extent, structural changes in money demand, monetary policy, and firms’ sticky pricing behavior as the main driving forces of the changes observed in recent U.S. business cycle...

Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.A. Ullersma (Cornelis Alexander)

2007-01-01

textabstractThis thesis shows that since the mid 1980s a sharp fall in equity and house prices tends to go hand in hand with a reduction of the monetary policy interest rate, which is the central bank’s main instrument to safeguard price stability. In exceptional circumstances, the policy rate can

Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

OpenAIRE

Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

2012-01-01

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

Dual Inflation

CERN Document Server

García-Bellido, J

1998-01-01

We propose a new model of inflation based on the soft-breaking of N=2 supersymmetric SU(2) Yang-Mills theory. The advantage of such a model is the fact that we can write an exact expression for the effective scalar potential, including non-perturbative effects, which preserves the analyticity and duality properties of the Seiberg-Witten solution. We find that the scalar condensate that plays the role of the inflaton can drive a long period of cosmological expansion, produce the right amount of temperature anisotropies in the microwave background, and end inflation when the monopole acquires a vacuum expectation value. Duality properties relate the weak coupling Higgs region where inflation takes place with the strong coupling monopole region, where reheating occurs, creating particles corresponding to the light degrees of freedom in the true vacuum.

Cosmic strings and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vishniac, E.T.

1987-01-01

We examine the compatibility of inflation with the cosmic string theory for galaxy formation. There is a general conflict between having sufficient string tension to effect galaxy formation, and reheating after inflation to a high enough temperature that strings may form in a thermal phase transition. To escape this conflict, we propose a class of models where the inflation is coupled to the string-producing field. The strings are formed late in inflation as the inflaton rolls towards its zero-temperature value. A large subset of these models have a novel large-scale distribution of galaxies that is fractal, displays biasing without dynamics or feedback mechanisms, and contains voids. (orig.)

Dual-chamber inflatable oil boom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blair, R.M.; Tedeschi, E.T.

1993-01-01

An elongated floating material containment boom section is described having a normally vertical ballasted skirt depending from flotation means, and convertible from a flattened collapsed condition to a deployable condition wherein buoyancy chamber means extending along the upper edge of said skirt are inflated to expanded buoyant configuration, including: a gas-impervious sleeve extending along the upper edge of said normally vertical skirt forming a first outer collapsible and inflatable flotation chamber, a first inflation valve connecting the interior of said sleeve with the ambient atmosphere, through which gas under pressure may be introduced into said sleeve to inflate said first buoyant outer flotation chamber, elongated gas-impervious tube means positioned inside said outer flotation chamber and forming second collapsible and inflatable internal flotation bladder chamber means, second inflation valve means connecting the interior of said bladder means through said outer flotation chamber to the ambient atmosphere through which gas under pressure may be introduced into said bladder means to inflate it forming said second flotation chamber means inside said outer flotation chamber

Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the CEE countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nedeljković Milan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper studies the time evolution in the degree and level of anchoring of inflation expectations in four Central and Eastern European inflation targeting countries. The results suggest that the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations increased gradually in all countries over the last decade, while the level of implied inflation targets moved towards the official target. The extent of anchoring increased more strongly in the first years following the IT adoption and more gradually over the later period. We also find that smooth changes of the official target had a positive impact on anchoring. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 47028: Advancing Serbia’s Competitiveness in the Process of EU Accession

Cosmological Inflation with Multiple Fields and the Theory of Density Fluctuations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tent, B.J.W. van

2002-01-01

Inflation is a stage of extremely rapid expansion in the very early universe. It was proposed to solve a number of problems in the standard Big Bang theory. In particular it others an explanation for the origin of structures like (clusters of) galaxies on the one hand (by generating small density

The physics of the relativistic counter-streaming instability that drives mass inflation inside black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, Andrew J.S.; Avelino, Pedro P.

2010-01-01

If you fall into a real astronomical black hole (choosing a supermassive black hole, to make sure that the tidal forces do not get you first), then you will probably meet your fate not at a central singularity, but rather in the exponentially growing, relativistic counter-streaming instability at the inner horizon first pointed out by Poisson and Israel (1990), who called it mass inflation. The chief purpose of this paper is to present a clear exposition of the physical cause and consequence of inflation in spherical, charged black holes. Inflation acts like a particle accelerator in that it accelerates cold ingoing and outgoing streams through each other to prodigiously high energies. Inflation feeds on itself: the acceleration is powered by the gravity produced by the streaming energy. The paper: (1) uses physical arguments to develop simple approximations that follow the evolution of inflation from ignition, through inflation itself, to collapse; (2) confirms that the simple approximations capture accurately the results of fully nonlinear one- and two-fluid self-similar models; (3) demonstrates that, counter-intuitively, the smaller the accretion rate, the more rapidly inflation exponentiates; (4) shows that in single perfect fluid models, inflation occurs only if the sound speed equals the speed of light, supporting the physical idea that inflation in single fluids is driven by relativistic counter-streaming of waves; (5) shows that what happens during inflation up to the Planck curvature depends not on the distant past or future, but rather on events happening only a few hundred black hole crossing times into the past or future; (6) shows that, if quantum gravity does not intervene, then the generic end result of inflation is not a general relativistic null singularity, but rather a spacelike singularity at zero radius.

ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE OF NON-MONETARY FACTORS ON INFLATION IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2003-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gilmundinov V. M.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper is concerned with issues of influence of non-monetary factors on inflation in the Russian economy in 2003-2013. Based on a production approach a method of estimation of the influence of non-monetary factors on deflator of gross output is proposed. According to the results of estimations, cost inflation dominates in Russia in the considered period. This conclusion is proven by considerable contribution of intermediate consumption and wages with sharp reducing contribution of gross profit in dynamic of basic prices. Obtained results reveal inefficiency of traditional monetary restriction for suppression of inflation in the Russian economy. The advisability of stimulating monetary policy harmonized with tariff regulation also follows from this study.

Who influenced inflation persistence in China? A comparative analysis of the standard CIA model and CIA model with endogenous money

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liao Ying

2013-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the influencing factors of inflation persistence in China’s economy using the DSGE approach. Two monetary DSGE models are estimated, namely, a standard CIA model and a CIA model with a Taylor rule. This article uses the Bayesian method to estimate the model, and the estimated and inferred results are credible due to the Markov chain reaching convergence. The results show that the augmented model outperforms the standard CIA model in terms of capturing inflation persistence. Further studies show that inflation persistence mainly comes from the persistence of the money supply, while money supply uncertainty, the reaction coefficient of monetary growth to productivity, productivity persistence and productivity uncertainty have a smaller impact on inflation persistence. Changes of monetary policy have little effect on inflation persistence.

The Flavour of Inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zavala, I.

2008-01-01

A new class of particle physics models of inflation based on the phase transition associated with the spontaneous breaking of family symmetry is proposed. The Higgs fields responsible for the breaking of family symmetry, the flavons, are natural inflaton candidates or waterfall fields in hybrid inflation. This opens up a rich vein of possible inflation models, all linked to the physics of flavour, with several interesting cosmological implications.

Topological defects in extended inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL; Liddle, A.R.

1990-04-01

We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings. 18 refs

Topological defects in extended inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Copeland, E.J.; Kolb, E.W.; Liddle, A.R.

1990-01-01

We consider the production of topological defects, especially cosmic strings, in extended-inflation models. In extended inflation, the Universe passes through a first-order phase transition via bubble percolation, which naturally allows defects to form at the end of inflation. The correlation length, which determines the number density of the defects, is related to the mean size of the bubbles when they collide. This mechanism allows a natural combination of inflation and large-scale structure via cosmic strings

Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens; Jing, Shenglin; Toronto Univ., ON

2013-09-01

We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α -5 . The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

Unitarizing Higgs Inflation

CERN Document Server

Giudice, Gian F

2011-01-01

We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.

Unitarizing Higgs inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giudice, Gian F.; Lee, Hyun Min

2011-01-01

We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model Higgs inflation with one new real scalar field which preserves unitarity up to the Planck scale. The new scalar field (called sigma) completes in the ultraviolet the theory of Higgs inflation by linearizing the Higgs kinetic term in the Einstein frame, just as the non-linear sigma model is unitarized into its linear version. The unitarity cutoff of the effective theory, obtained by integrating out the sigma field, varies with the background value of the Higgs field. In our setup, both the Higgs field and the sigma field participate in the inflationary dynamics, following the flat direction of the potential. We obtain the same slow-roll parameters and spectral index as in the original Higgs inflation but we find that the Hubble rate during inflation depends not only on the Higgs self-coupling, but also on the unknown couplings of the sigma field.

Extended inflation with nonminimally coupled inflation field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panchapakesan, N.; Sethi, S.K.

1992-01-01

In this paper, an extended inflation model, in which the inflation field is nonminimally coupled to the gravity, is discussed. It is shown that the nucleation rate of bubbles, during a phase transition in the inflaton field, can increase as the transition proceeds for a wide range of parameters of the inflaton potential. The bounce action for three possible cases - the strong gravity regime, the thick-walled Coleman-DeLuccia bubbles and the thin-walled bubbles - is evaluated. The resulting bubble distribution for all the cases is shown to be in conformity with cosmological constraints for ω < 500

Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

Science.gov (United States)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kähler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third "driving" field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the "standard" hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (Winf = 0) during inflation. Quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.

Australia's approach to monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Jane Sneddon Little

2002-01-01

According to Australia's Reserve Bank Act, the central bank's broad policy objectives include maintaining the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia. In 1993 the Reserve Bank of Australia adopted a specific, and thus transparent, inflation target as its operating objective; it aims to keep overall inflation between 2 percent and 3 percent on average over the business cycle.

Stochastic effects in hybrid inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Jérôme; Vennin, Vincent

2012-02-01

Hybrid inflation is a two-field model where inflation ends due to an instability. In the neighborhood of the instability point, the potential is very flat and the quantum fluctuations dominate over the classical motion of the inflaton and waterfall fields. In this article, we study this regime in the framework of stochastic inflation. We numerically solve the two coupled Langevin equations controlling the evolution of the fields and compute the probability distributions of the total number of e-folds and of the inflation exit point. Then, we discuss the physical consequences of our results, in particular, the question of how the quantum diffusion can affect the observable predictions of hybrid inflation.

A two-states Markov-switching model of inflation in France and the USA: credible target VS inflation spiral

OpenAIRE

B. HEITZ

2005-01-01

This paper seeks to apply the general framework of Markov-switching models to inflation in France and in the USA. We propose a model where inflation can, alternatively, follow two regimes: the first one, where inflation is stationary, is interpreted as a situation where there exists a credible inflation target, even if it is not explicit; the second one where inflation is integrated. Moreover, observing that the two oil shocks were followed by accelerating inflation periods, we allow dependen...

Air-Inflated Fabric Structures

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cavallaro, Paul V; Sadegh, Ali M

2006-01-01

.... Examples include air ships, weather balloons, inflatable antennas and radomes, temporary shelters, pneumatic muscles and actuators, inflatable boats, temporary bridging, and energy absorbers such as automotive air bags...

Flexible Thermal Protection System Development for Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators

Science.gov (United States)

DelCorso, Joseph A.; Bruce, Walter E., III; Hughes, Stephen J.; Dec, John A.; Rezin, Marc D.; Meador, Mary Ann B.; Guo, Haiquan; Fletcher, Douglas G.; Calomino, Anthony M.; Cheatwood, McNeil

2012-01-01

The Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIAD) project has invested in development of multiple thermal protection system (TPS) candidates to be used in inflatable, high downmass, technology flight projects. Flexible TPS is one element of the HIAD project which is tasked with the research and development of the technology ranging from direct ground tests, modelling and simulation, characterization of TPS systems, manufacturing and handling, and standards and policy definition. The intent of flexible TPS is to enable large deployable aeroshell technologies, which increase the drag performance while significantly reducing the ballistic coefficient of high-mass entry vehicles. A HIAD requires a flexible TPS capable of surviving aerothermal loads, and durable enough to survive the rigors of construction, handling, high density packing, long duration exposure to extrinsic, in-situ environments, and deployment. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of key work being performed within the Flexible TPS element of the HIAD project. Included in this paper is an overview of, and results from, each Flexible TPS research and development activity, which includes ground testing, physics-based thermal modelling, age testing, margins policy, catalysis, materials characterization, and recent developments with new TPS materials.

Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy with Unemployment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyuk-Jae Rhee

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gali (2011a, b to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

THE INFLATION IMPACT OF SELECTED EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERS ON POLISH INFLATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jarosław Czaja

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article aims at determining the inflation influence between Poland and selected EU member states. Although for some time the general inflation level in those countries was definitely controllable, the problem seems to be returning. That is why in this article, using the model of Vector AutoRegression (VAR and Granger causality test, we are attempting to determine inflation influences on Poland. The study confirmed the impact of the selected countries on Polish inflation, expressed the general HICP index. However, in the case of Germany, the method has not proved the existence of such interactions. For this reason, it is made an attempt to clarify the reasons for non-compliance findings with data showing Germany as a Polish main trading partner for more than two decades. The authors try to show that lack of influence can be seen in the excessive generality of the main HICP index and predict that the chosen method confirm the effect of foreign trade indices in the HICP.

Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baxa, Jaromír; Plašil, M.; Vašíček, B.

2013-01-01

Roč. 11, č. 1 (2013), s. 2-5 ISSN 1803-7089 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Inflation Dynamics * Inflation Targeting? Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/baxa-0395372.pdf

Supersymmetric Majoron inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, Stephen F.; Ludl, Patrick Otto [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton,Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)

2017-03-31

We propose supersymmetric Majoron inflation in which the Majoron field Φ responsible for generating right-handed neutrino masses may also be suitable for giving low scale “hilltop” inflation, with a discrete lepton number ℤ{sub N} spontaneously broken at the end of inflation, while avoiding the domain wall problem. In the framework of non-minimal supergravity, we show that a successful spectral index can result with small running together with small tensor modes. We show that a range of heaviest right-handed neutrino masses can be generated, m{sub N}∼10{sup 1}−10{sup 16} GeV, consistent with the constraints from reheating and domain walls.

Pre-inflation physics and scalar perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirai, Shiro

2005-01-01

The effect of pre-inflation physics on the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is investigated. Considering various pre-inflation models with radiation-dominated or matter-dominated periods before inflation, the power spectra of curvature perturbations for large scales are calculated, and the spectral index and running spectral index are derived. It is shown that pre-inflation models in which the length of inflation is near 60 e-folds may reproduce some key properties implied by the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe data

IAS15 inflation adjustments and EVA: empirical evidence from a highly variable inflation regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre Erasmus

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Inflation can have a pronounced effect on the financial performance of a firm. This study makes inflation adjustments to a firm’s cost of sales, depreciation, level of gearing and assets in line with International Accounting Standard 15 (IAS15 in order to calculate an inflation-adjusted version of the economic value added (EVA measure. The study was conducted using data from South African industrial firms during a period characterised by highly variable inflation levels (1991-2005. The results indicate that during this period there were significant differences between the nominal and real values of the firms’ EVAs

IMPLEMENTING FISCAL OR MONETARY POLICY IN TIME OF CRISIS? RUNNING GRANGER CAUSALITY TO TEST THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN SOME EURO ZONE COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nico Gianluigi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to provide empirical evidence about the theoretical relationship between inflation and unemployment in 9 European countries. Based on two major goals for economic policymakers namely, to keep both inflation and unemployment low, we use the ingredients of the Phillips curve to orient fiscal and monetary policies. These policies are prerogative for the achievement of a desirable combination of unemployment and inflation. More in detail, we attempt to address two basic issues. One strand of the study examines the size and sign of the impact of unemployment rate on percentage changes in inflation. In our preferred econometric model, we have made explicit the evidence according to which one unit increase (% in unemployment reduces inflation of roughly 0.73 percent, on average. Next, we turn to the question concerning the causal link between inflation and unemployment and we derive a political framework enables to orient European policymakers in the implementation of either fiscal or monetary policy. In this context, by means of the Granger causality test, we mainly find evidence of a directional causality which runs from inflation to unemployment in 4 out of 9 European countries under analysis. This result implies that political authorities of Austria, Belgium, Germany and Italy should implement monetary policy in order to achieve pre-established targets of unemployment and inflation. In the same context, a directional causality running from unemployment to inflation has been found in France and Cyprus suggesting that a reduction in the unemployment level can be achieved through controlling fiscal policy. However, succeeding in this goal may lead to an increasing demand for goods and services which, in turn, might cause a higher inflation than expected. Finally, while there is no statistical evidence of a causal link between unemployment and inflation in Finland and Greece, a bidirectional causality has been found in Estonia. This

Central bank independence and inflation in Africa: The role of financial systems and institutional quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abel Mawuko Agoba

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The study examines the effects of financial systems and the quality of political institutions on the effectiveness of central bank independence in achieving lower inflation. Drawing from the fiscal theory of price level (FTPL and political economy of macroeconomic policy (PEMP literature; we estimate a panel regression model, using Two Stage Least Squares instrumental variables procedure, on a sample of 48 African countries over the period 1970–2012. The study finds that central bank independence-inflation nexus is dependent on the model, sample and estimation technique used. After accounting for various control variables and introducing inflation targeting as an additional explanatory variable, the study shows that, unlike in developed countries, CBI is not sufficient in achieving lower inflation in Africa and the developing world. However, common to developed, developing and African countries, is that, higher central bank independence is more effective in lowering inflation in the presence of high levels of banking sector development and institutional quality. The findings of the study also show that while stock market development enhances the effectiveness of CBI in developed and developing countries, it has no significant effect on CBI effectiveness in Africa.

''Old'' locked inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Yang; Piao, Yun-Song [College of Physical Sciences, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Si, Zong-Guo, E-mail: liuyangbyf@mail.sdu.edu.cn, E-mail: yspiao@gucas.ac.cn, E-mail: zgsi@sdu.edu.cn [Department of Physics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100 (China)

2009-05-15

In this paper, we revisit the idea of locked inflation, which does not require a potential satisfying the normal slow-roll condition, but suffers from the problems associated with ''saddle inflation''. We propose a scenario based on locked inflation, however, with an alternative evolution mechanism of the ''waterfall field'' {phi}. Instead of rolling down along the potential, the {phi} field will tunnel to end the inflation stage like in old inflation, by which the saddle inflation could be avoided. Further, we study a cascade of old locked inflation, which can be motivated by the string landscape. Our model is based on the consideration of making locked inflation feasible so as to give a working model without slow roll; It also can be seen as an effort to embed the old inflation in string landscape.

The fissioning universe: Topological inflation and Kaluza-Klein cosmologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaku, Michio; Lykken, J.

1986-01-01

We propose a Kaluza-Klein cosmology by reversing the usual scenario: instead of starting with a flat 4+N dimensional universe in which N of the dimensions curl up into a compact manifold, we start with a compact 3+N dimensional manifold in which 3 of the dimensions are allowed to peel off and expand into the known universe. We reverse the usual ''spontaneous compactification'' scenario begin with a closed manifold Msup(3+N) which undergoes ''spontaneous fissioning'' into a product manifold M 3 xMsup(N). Remarkably, the 3-dimensional universe M 3 can undergo a rapid de Sitter expansion large enough to solve the horizon and flatness problem. We call this ''topological inflation'', which we propose as an alternative to the usual GUT inflation. The inflationary phase automatically terminates into a big bang phase. (orig.)

Estimating Venezuelas Latent Inflation

OpenAIRE

Juan Carlos Bencomo; Hugo J. Montesinos; Hugo M. Montesinos; Jose Roberto Rondo

2011-01-01

Percent variation of the consumer price index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely used. This indicator, however, has some drawbacks. In addition to measurement errors of the CPI, there is a problem of incongruence between the definition of inflation as a sustained and generalized increase of prices and the traditional measure associated with the CPI. We use data from 1991 to 2005 to estimate a complementary indicator for Venezuela, the highest inflation country in Latin America. Late...

12 CFR 19.240 - Inflation adjustments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 19.240 Section 19.240... PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 19.240 Inflation adjustments. (a) The maximum amount... Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note) as follows: ER10NO08.001 (b) The...

Mutated hilltop inflation revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Barun Kumar

2018-05-01

In this work we re-investigate pros and cons of mutated hilltop inflation. Applying Hamilton-Jacobi formalism we solve inflationary dynamics and find that inflation goes on along the {W}_{-1} branch of the Lambert function. Depending on the model parameter mutated hilltop model renders two types of inflationary solutions: one corresponds to small inflaton excursion during observable inflation and the other describes large field inflation. The inflationary observables from curvature perturbation are in tune with the current data for a wide range of the model parameter. The small field branch predicts negligible amount of tensor to scalar ratio r˜ O(10^{-4}), while the large field sector is capable of generating high amplitude for tensor perturbations, r˜ O(10^{-1}). Also, the spectral index is almost independent of the model parameter along with a very small negative amount of scalar running. Finally we find that the mutated hilltop inflation closely resembles the α -attractor class of inflationary models in the limit of α φ ≫ 1.

PERANAN VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP INFLASI PASCAPENERAPAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK (ITF 1 DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1999.1-2008.6

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joko Waluyo

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomics variable, which is real exchange rate, SBI, M1 and GDP to domestic inflation in Inflation Targeting Framework. This research also intended to analyze effect of macroeconomics to inflation, which been transmitted through interest rate and will give us a big picture on what’s the next monetary policies. We used monthly time series data 1999:01–2008:06 and applied Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the phenomenon. Real exchange rate, SBI (quarterly, M1 and GDP have positive effect to the inflation, but only real exchange rate and SBI (quarterly which has permanent and long term effect. The real exchange rate has strong effect on inflation stability because, by applying ITF. The free-floating exchange rate system should be applied, and the fragile currency shall be easily fluctuated.

Is non-minimal inflation eternal?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng, Chao-Jun; Li, Xin-Zhou

2010-01-01

The possibility that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal is investigated. We calculate the quantum fluctuation of the inflaton in a Hubble time and find that it has the same value as that in the minimal case in the slow-roll limit. Armed with this result, we have studied some concrete non-minimal inflationary models including the chaotic inflation and the natural inflation, in which the inflaton is non-minimally coupled to the gravity. We find that the non-minimal coupling inflation could be eternal in some parameter spaces.

Monetary Policy and the Taylor Principle in Open Economies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Linnemann, L.; Schabert, A.

2006-01-01

Nowadays, central banks mostly conduct monetary policy by setting nominal interest rates. A widely held view is that central banks can stabilize inflation if they follow the Taylor principle, which requires raising the nominal interest rate more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation. Is

Monetary Policy in the Greenspan Era

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Anders Møller; Nielsen, Heino Bohn

2009-01-01

Relationships between the Federal funds rate, unemployment, inflation and the long-term bond rate are investigated with cointegration techniques. We find a stable long-term relationship between the Federal funds rate, unemployment and the bond rate. This relationship is interpretable as a policy...... Taylor-type target, where inflation appears instead of the bond rate, does not seem congruent with the data....... target because deviations are corrected via the Federal funds rate. Deviations of the actual Federal funds rate from the estimated target give simple indications of discretionary monetary policy, and the larger deviations relate to special episodes outside the current information set. A more traditional...

Inflation in AdS/CFT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freivogel, Ben; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /LBL, Berkeley; Hubeny, Veronika E.; /LBL, Berkeley /Durham U., Dept. of Math.; Maloney, Alexander; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; Myers, Rob; /Perimeter Inst. Theor. Phys. /Waterloo U.; Rangamani, Mukund; /LBL, Berkeley /Durham U., Dept. of Math.; Shenker, Stephen; /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

2005-10-07

We study the realization of inflation within the AdS/CFT correspondence. We assume the existence of a string landscape containing at least one stable AdS vacuum and a (nearby) metastable de Sitter state. Standard arguments imply that the bulk physics in the vicinity of the AdS minimum is described by a boundary CFT. We argue that large enough bubbles of the dS phase, including those able to inflate, are described by mixed states in the CFT. Inflating degrees of freedom are traced over and do not appear explicitly in the boundary description. They nevertheless leave a distinct imprint on the mixed state. Analytic continuation allows us, in principle, to recover a large amount of nonperturbatively defined information about the inflating regime. Our work also shows that no scattering process can create an inflating region, even by quantum tunneling, since a pure state can never evolve into a mixed state under unitary evolution.We study the realization of inflation within the AdS/CFT correspondence. We assume the existence of a string landscape containing at least one stable AdS vacuum and a (nearby) metastable de Sitter state. Standard arguments imply that the bulk physics in the vicinity of the AdS minimum is described by a boundary CFT. We argue that large enough bubbles of the dS phase, including those able to inflate, are described by mixed states in the CFT. Inflating degrees of freedom are traced over and do not appear explicitly in the boundary description. They nevertheless leave a distinct imprint on the mixed state. Analytic continuation allows us, in principle, to recover a large amount of nonperturbatively defined information about the inflating regime. Our work also shows that no scattering process can create an inflating region, even by quantum tunneling, since a pure state can never evolve into a mixed state under unitary evolution.

Testing Cosmic Inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Chuss, David

2010-01-01

The Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) has provided a wealth of information about the history and physics of the early Universe. Much progress has been made on uncovering the emerging Standard Model of Cosmology by such experiments as COBE and WMAP, and ESA's Planck Surveyor will likely increase our knowledge even more. Despite the success of this model, mysteries remain. Currently understood physics does not offer a compelling explanation for the homogeneity, flatness, and the origin of structure in the Universe. Cosmic Inflation, a brief epoch of exponential expansion, has been posted to explain these observations. If inflation is a reality, it is expected to produce a background spectrum of gravitational waves that will leave a small polarized imprint on the CMB. Discovery of this signal would give the first direct evidence for inflation and provide a window into physics at scales beyond those accessible to terrestrial particle accelerators. I will briefly review aspects of the Standard Model of Cosmology and discuss our current efforts to design and deploy experiments to measure the polarization of the CMB with the precision required to test inflation.

A new model for deteriorating items with inflation under permissible delay in payments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.P. Tripathi

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Inflation is an important factor influencing traditional economic order quality models. Marketing strategy depends on inflation due to public demand and availability of the materials. This paper presents an optimal inventory policy for deteriorating items using exponential demand rate under permissible delay in payments. Mathematical model has been derived under two cases: case I: cycle time is greater than or equal to permissible delay period, case II: cycle time is less than permissible delay period by considering holding cost as a function of time. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are given to reflect the numerical results. Mathematica software is used for finding optimal solutions.

Inflation and quantum cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linde, A.

1991-01-01

In this article a review of the present status of inflationary cosmology is given. We start with a discussion of the simplest version of the chaotic inflation scenario. Then we discuss some recent develoments in the inflationary cosmology, including the theory of a self-reproducing inflationary universe (eternal chaotic inflation). We do it with the help of stochastic approach to inflation. The results obtained within this approach are compared with the results obtained in the context of Euclidean quantum cosmology. (WL)

Interest Rates and Inflation

OpenAIRE

Coopersmith, Michael; Gambardella, Pascal J.

2016-01-01

This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to eliminate the inflation rate and obtain a delay differential equation. We provide computer simulated solutions for this equation over regimes of interest. This paper could be of ...

Microwave background anisotropies in quasiopen inflation

Science.gov (United States)

García-Bellido, Juan; Garriga, Jaume; Montes, Xavier

1999-10-01

Quasiopenness seems to be generic to multifield models of single-bubble open inflation. Instead of producing infinite open universes, these models actually produce an ensemble of very large but finite inflating islands. In this paper we study the possible constraints from CMB anisotropies on existing models of open inflation. The effect of supercurvature anisotropies combined with the quasiopenness of the inflating regions make some models incompatible with observations, and severely reduces the parameter space of others. Supernatural open inflation and the uncoupled two-field model seem to be ruled out due to these constraints for values of Ω0<~0.98. Others, such as the open hybrid inflation model with suitable parameters for the slow roll potential can be made compatible with observations.

Tribrid Inflation in Supergravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Kostka, Philipp M.

2010-01-01

We propose a novel class of F-term hybrid inflation models in supergravity (SUGRA) where the η-problem is resolved using either a Heisenberg symmetry or a shift symmetry of the Kaehler potential. In addition to the inflaton and the waterfall field, this class (referred to as tribrid inflation) contains a third 'driving' field which contributes the large vacuum energy during inflation by its F-term. In contrast to the 'standard' hybrid scenario, it has several attractive features due to the property of vanishing inflationary superpotential (W inf = 0) during inflation. While the symmetries of the Kaehler potential ensure a flat inflaton potential at tree-level, quantum corrections induced by symmetry breaking terms in the superpotential generate a slope of the potential and lead to a spectral tilt consistent with recent WMAP observations.

Accidental inflation from Kaehler uplifting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Jing, Shenglin [Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Canadian Inst. for Theoretical Astrophysics; Toronto Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Astronomy and Astrophysics

2013-09-15

We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Kaehler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running {alpha}<{proportional_to}0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}10{sup -5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

Estimation of Inflationary Expectations and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amalia CRISTESCU

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The credibility and accountability of a central bank, acting in an inflation targeting regime, are essential because they allow a sustainable anchoring of the inflationary anticipation of economic agents. Their decisions and behavior will increasingly be grounded on information provided by the central bank, especially if it shows transparency in the process of communicating with the public. Thus, inflationary anticipations are one of the most important channels through which the monetary policy affects the economic activity. They are crucial in the formation of the consumer prices among producers and traders, especially since it is relatively expensive for the economic agents to adjust their prices at short intervals. That is why many central banks use response functions containing inflationary anticipations, in their inflation targeting models. The most frequently problem in relation to these anticipations is that they are based on the assumption of optimal forecasts of future inflation, which are, implicitly, rational anticipations. In fact, the economic agents’ inflationary anticipations are most often adaptive or even irrational. Thus, rational anticipations cannot be used to estimate equations for the Romanian economy because the agents who form their expectations do not have sufficient information and an inflationary environment stable enough to fully anticipate the inflation evolution. The inflation evolution in the Romanian economy helps to calculate adaptive forecasts for which the weight of the "forward looking" component has to be rather important. The economic agents form their inflation expectations for periods of time that, usually, coincide with a production cycle (one year and consider the official and unofficial inflation forecasts present on the market in order to make strategic decisions. Thus, in recent research on inflation modeling, actual inflationary anticipations of economic agents which are revealed based on national

Initial conditions for chaotic inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandenberger, R.; Kung, J.; Feldman, H.

1991-01-01

In contrast to many other inflationary Universe models, chaotic inflation does not depend on fine tuning initial conditions. Within the context of linear perturbation theory, it is shown that chaotic inflation is stable towards both metric and matter perturbations. Neglecting gravitational perturbations, it is shown that chaotic inflation is an attractor in initial condition space. (orig.)

Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

OpenAIRE

Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

2014-01-01

We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

Slow nucleation rates in chain inflation with QCD axions or monodromy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashoorioon, Amjad; Freese, Katherine; Liu, James T.

2009-01-01

The previous proposal (by two of us) of chain inflation with the QCD axion is shown to fail. The proposal involved a series of fast tunneling events, yet here it is shown that tunneling is too slow. We calculate the bubble nucleation rates for phase transitions in the thick wall limit, approximating the barrier by a triangle. A similar problem arises in realization of chain inflation in the string landscape that uses series of minima along the monodromy staircase around the conifold point. The basic problem is that the minima of the potential are too far apart to allow rapid enough tunneling in these two models. We entertain the possibility of overcoming this problem by modifying the gravity sector to a Brans-Dicke theory. However, one would need extremely small values for the Brans-Dicke parameter in the early universe. Many successful alternatives exist, including other axions (with mass scales not set by QCD) or potentials with comparable heights and widths that do not suffer from the problem of slow tunneling and provide successful candidates for chain inflation.

Do axions need inflation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, R.L.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge

1989-01-01

Without inflation the energy density of relic axions in a Robertson-Walker universe arises not from coherent oscillations of a zero-momentum mode but from radiative decay of axion strings. An estimate of the upper bound on the PQ scale coming from these axions is in conflict with the lower bound from SN1987a. We present analytical and numerical evidence supporting this estimate. If true, then the axion needs inflation. With inflation the axion is safe, but the motivation for axion search experiments is weakened. (orig.)

Stability of compactification during inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amendola, L.; Litterio, M.; Occhionero, F.; Kolb, E.W.

1990-03-01

The possibility that inflation may trigger an instability in compactification of extra spatial dimensions is considered. In old, new, or extended inflation, the false vacuum energy results in a semiclassical instability in which the scalar field representing the radius of the extra dimensions may tunnel through a potential barrier leading to an expansion of the internal space. In chaotic inflation, if the initial value of the scalar field responsible for inflation is large enough, the internal space becomes classically unstable to ever increasing expansion. Restrictions on inflationary models necessary to keep the extra dimensions small are discussed. 15 refs., 5 figs

Higgs-Palatini inflation and unitarity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bauer, Florian; Demir, Durmus A.

2011-01-01

In the Higgs inflation scenario the Higgs field is strongly coupled to the Ricci scalar in order to drive primordial inflation. However, in its original form in pure metric formulation of gravity, the ultraviolet (UV) cutoff of the Higgs interactions and the Hubble rate are of the same magnitude, and this makes the whole inflationary evolution dependent of the unknown UV completion of the Higgs sector. This problem, the unitarity violation, plagues the Higgs inflation scenario. In this Letter we show that, in the Palatini formulation of gravitation, Higgs inflation does not suffer from unitarity violation since the UV cutoff lies parametrically much higher than the Hubble rate so that unknown UV physics does not disrupt the inflationary dynamics. Higgs-Palatini inflation, as we call it, is, therefore, UV-safe, minimal and endowed with predictive power.

Formula inflation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antipov Valerij Ivanovich

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The article gives a modern interpretation of the Fisher formula, the calculated velocity of circulation of money supply M2 in the interval 1995-2013 and forecast of its changes until 2030 when hypotheses about the rate of inflation and GDP. Points to the fallacy of its direct use to control inflation and money supply. For a more detailed understanding of the inflationary process proposes a new frequency formula and the explanation of the situation with the regulation of prices in the economy.

EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY IN ROMANIA - A VAR APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulian Popescu

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Understanding how monetary policy decisions affect inflation and other economic variables is particularly important. In this paper we consider the implications of monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime in Romania, based on an autoregressive vector method including recursive VAR and structural VAR (SVAR. Therefore, we focus on assessing the extent and persistence of monetary policy effects on gross domestic product (GDP, price level, extended monetary aggregate (M3 and exchange rate. The main results of VAR analysis reflect a negative response of consumer price index (CPI, GDP and M3 and positive nominal exchange rate behaviour to a monetary policy shock, and also a limited impact of a short-term interest rate shock in explaining the consumer prices, production and exchange rate fluctuations.

Assessing inflation persistence: micro evidence on an inflation targeting economy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Babecký, Jan; Coricelli, F.; Horváth, R.

2009-01-01

Roč. 59, č. 2 (2009), s. 102-127 ISSN 0015-1920 Grant - others:Česká národní banka(CZ) E5/05 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation dynamics * persistence * inflation targeting Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.264, year: 2009 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1153_babeck%C3%BD_horv%C3%A1th_coricelli.pdf

Estimating the Threshold Level of Inflation for Thailand

OpenAIRE

Jiranyakul, Komain

2017-01-01

Abstract. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Thailand using annual dataset during 1990 and 2015. The threshold model is estimated for different levels of threshold inflation rate. The results suggest that the threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slow growth is estimated at 3 percent. The negative relationship between inflation and growth is apparent above this threshold level of inflation. In other words, the inflation rat...

Effects of prolonged lung inflation or deflation on pulmonary stretch receptor discharge in the alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

Science.gov (United States)

Marschand, Rachel E; Wilson, Jenna L; Burleson, Mark L; Crossley, Dane A; Hedrick, Michael S

2014-08-15

The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is a semi-aquatic diving reptile that has a periodic breathing pattern. Previous work identified pulmonary stretch receptors, that are rapidly and slowly adapting, as well as intrapulmonary chemoreceptors (IPC), sensitive to CO2, that modulate breathing patterns in alligators. The purpose of the present study was to quantify the effects of prolonged lung inflation and deflation (simulated dives) on pulmonary stretch receptors (PSR) and/or IPC discharge characteristics. The effects of airway pressure (0-20 cm H2O), hypercapnia (7% CO2), and hypoxia (5% O2) on dynamic and static responses of PSR were studied in juvenile alligators (mean mass=246 g) at 24°C. Alligators were initially anesthetized with isoflurane, cranially pithed, tracheotomized and artificially ventilated. Vagal afferent tonic and phasic activity was recorded with platinum hook electrodes. Receptor activity was a mixture of slowly adapting PSR (SAR) and rapidly adapting PSR (RAR) with varying thresholds and degrees of adaptation, without CO2 sensitivity. Receptor activity before, during and after 1 min periods of lung inflation and deflation was quantified to examine the effect of simulated breath-hold dives. Some PSR showed a change in dynamic response, exhibiting inhibition for several breaths after prolonged lung inflation. Following 1 min deflation, RAR, but not SAR, exhibited a significant potentiation of burst frequency relative to control. For SAR, the post-inflation receptor inhibition was blocked by CO2 and hypoxia; for RAR, the post-inflation inhibition was potentiated by CO2 and blocked by hypoxia. These results suggest that changes in PSR firing following prolonged inflation and deflation may promote post-dive ventilation in alligators. We hypothesize that PSR in alligators may be involved in recovery of breathing patterns and lung volume during pre- and post-diving behavior and apneic periods in diving reptiles. Copyright © 2014

Staggered multi-field inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Battefeld, Diana; Battefeld, Thorsten; Davis, Anne-Christine

2008-01-01

We investigate multi-field inflationary scenarios with fields that drop out of the model in a staggered fashion. This feature is natural in certain multi-field inflationary setups within string theory; for instance, it can manifest itself when fields are related to tachyons that condense, or inter-brane distances that become meaningless when branes annihilate. Considering a separable potential, and promoting the number of fields to a smooth time dependent function, we derive the formalism to deal with these models at the background and perturbed level, providing general expressions for the scalar spectral index and the running. We recover known results of e.g. a dynamically relaxing cosmological constant in the appropriate limits. We further show that isocurvature perturbations are suppressed during inflation, and so perturbations are adiabatic and nearly Gaussian. The resulting setup might be interpreted as a novel type of warm inflation, readily implemented within string theory and without many of the shortcomings associated with warm inflation. To exemplify the applicability of the formalism we consider three concrete models: assisted inflation with exponential potentials as a simple toy model (a graceful exit becomes possible), inflation from multiple tachyons (a constant decay rate of the number of fields and negligible slow roll contributions turns out to be in good agreement with observations) and inflation from multiple M5-branes within M-theory (a narrow stacking of branes yields a consistent scenario)

The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical evidence for the newest EU countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Viorica, Daniela; Jemna, Danut; Pintilescu, Carmen; Asandului, Mircea

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to verify the hypotheses presented in the literature on the causal relationship between inflation and its uncertainty, for the newest EU countries. To ensure the robustness of the results, in the study four models for inflation uncertainty are estimated in parallel: ARCH (1), GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1,1) and PARCH (1,1,1). The Granger method is used to test the causality between two variables. The working hypothesis is that groups of countries with a similar political and economic background in 1990 and are likely to be characterized by the same causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical results partially confirm this hypothesis. C22, E31, E37.

What is the Globalisation of Inflation?

OpenAIRE

Altansukh, Gantungalag; Becker, Ralf; Bratsiotis, George J.; Osborn, Denise R.

2017-01-01

This paper studies the globalisation of CPI inflation by analysing core, energy and food components, testing for structural breaks in the relationships between domestic inflation and a corresponding country-specific foreign inflation series at the monthly frequency for OECD countries.The iterative methodology employed separates coefficient and variance breaks, while also taking account of outliers. We find that the overall pattern of globalisation in aggregate inflation is largely driven by c...

Supersymmetry and Inflation

CERN Document Server

Ferrara, Sergio

2017-01-01

Theories with elementary scalar degrees of freedom seem nowadays required for simple descriptions of the Standard Model and of the Early Universe. It is then natural to embed theories of inflation in supergravity, also in view of their possible ultraviolet completion in String Theory. After some general remarks on inflation in supergravity, we describe examples of minimal inflaton dynamics which are compatible with recent observations, including higher-curvature ones inspired by the Starobinsky model. We also discuss different scenarios for supersymmetry breaking during and after inflation, which include a revived role for non-linear realizations. In this spirit, we conclude with a discussion of the link, in four dimensions, between "brane supersymmetry breaking" and the super--Higgs effect in supergravity.

CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE AND INFLATION TARGETING - THE BRITISH EXPERIENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Delia

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Known as the ‘Old Lady’ of Threadneedle Street, the Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Founded in 1694, the Bank of England is standing at the centre of the United Kingdom’s financial system, and is committed to promoting and maintaining monetary and financial stability as its contribution to a healthy economy. In our opinion, it is very important to analyze the Bank of England’s monetary policy strategy, starting from 1992 – adoption of the inflation target and the evolution of it’s monetary policy strategy, through an important feature – delegating operational accountability regarding the monetary policy in 1997 as well as the appropriate institutional framework. More over, it is important to analyze the Bank of England’s performances before and after granting central bank independence.

Warm inflation in the stochastic inflation formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Leandro A. da; Ramos, Rudnei O.

2011-01-01

Full text: The basic assumption of stochastic inflation is the splitting, through the definition of a appropriate window function, of the quantum inflaton field in a long wavelength part (modes outside of the de Sitter horizon) and in a short wavelength (modes inside the de Sitter horizon) part. The inflationary mechanism then continuously shifts more and more modes of the bath field into the system stretching their physical wavelengths beyond the de Sitter horizon size, what generates an effective system-bath interaction. Therefore, the system field develops a stochastic dynamics driven by the bath field, that plays the role of noise source. The resulting equation of motion (EoM) is a Langevin-like equation. Applying this formalism to Warm Inflation scenario (where, alternatively to the cold inflation, we assume that the inflaton evolves in a thermal bath and through a dissipative process continuously generates radiation, thus avoiding the necessity of a reheating mechanism), we contrast the exact numerical solution of thermal power spectrum and two approximations currently used in the literature, and compare this to the quantum power spectrum at horizon crossing. Finally, we consider a more realistic model based on microscopic derivations to estimate the effects of non-Markovianity on the inflaton dynamics and on the thermal power spectrum. (author)

Primordial anisotropies in gauged hybrid inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Akbar Abolhasani, Ali; Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan

2014-05-01

We study primordial anisotropies generated in the model of gauged hybrid inflation in which the complex waterfall field is charged under a U(1)gauge field. Primordial anisotropies are generated either actively during inflation or from inhomogeneities modulating the surface of end of inflation during waterfall transition. We present a consistent δN mechanism to calculate the anisotropic power spectrum and bispectrum. We show that the primordial anisotropies generated at the surface of end of inflation do not depend on the number of e-folds and therefore do not produce dangerously large anisotropies associated with the IR modes. Furthermore, one can find the parameter space that the anisotropies generated from the surface of end of inflation cancel the anisotropies generated during inflation, therefore relaxing the constrains on model parameters imposed from IR anisotropies. We also show that the gauge field fluctuations induce a red-tilted power spectrum so the averaged power spectrum from the gauge field can change the total power spectrum from blue to red. Therefore, hybrid inflation, once gauged under a U(1) field, can be consistent with the cosmological observations.

Nonthermal gravitino production in tribrid inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik

2015-10-01

We investigate nonthermal gravitino production after tribrid inflation in supergravity, which is a variant of supersymmetric hybrid inflation where three fields are involved in the inflationary model and where the inflaton field resides in the matter sector of the theory. In contrast to conventional supersymmetric hybrid inflation, where nonthermal gravitino production imposes severe constraints on the inflationary model, we find that the "nonthermal gravitino problem" is generically absent in models of tribrid inflation, mainly due to two effects: (i) With the inflaton in tribrid inflation (after inflation) being lighter than the waterfall field, the latter has a second decay channel with a much larger rate than for the decay into gravitinos. This reduces the branching ratio for the decay of the waterfall field into gravitinos. (ii) The inflaton generically decays later than the waterfall field, and it does not produce gravitinos when it decays. This leads to a dilution of the gravitino population from the decays of the waterfall field. The combination of both effects generically leads to a strongly reduced gravitino production in tribrid inflation.

Primordial anisotropies in gauged hybrid inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abolhasani, Ali Akbar; Emami, Razieh; Firouzjahi, Hassan

2014-01-01

We study primordial anisotropies generated in the model of gauged hybrid inflation in which the complex waterfall field is charged under a U(1)gauge field. Primordial anisotropies are generated either actively during inflation or from inhomogeneities modulating the surface of end of inflation during waterfall transition. We present a consistent δN mechanism to calculate the anisotropic power spectrum and bispectrum. We show that the primordial anisotropies generated at the surface of end of inflation do not depend on the number of e-folds and therefore do not produce dangerously large anisotropies associated with the IR modes. Furthermore, one can find the parameter space that the anisotropies generated from the surface of end of inflation cancel the anisotropies generated during inflation, therefore relaxing the constrains on model parameters imposed from IR anisotropies. We also show that the gauge field fluctuations induce a red-tilted power spectrum so the averaged power spectrum from the gauge field can change the total power spectrum from blue to red. Therefore, hybrid inflation, once gauged under a U(1) field, can be consistent with the cosmological observations

Graceful exit from Higgs G-inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamada, Kohei [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Kobayashi, Tsutomu [Rikkyo Univ., Tokyo (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Kunimitsu, Taro [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Yamaguchi, Masahide [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Yokoyama, Jun' ichi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Research Center for the Early Universe (RESCEU); Tokyo Univ., Chiba (Japan). Kavli Inst. for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU)

2013-09-15

Higgs G-inflation is a Higgs inflation model with a generalized Galileon term added to the standard model Higgs field, which realizes inflation compatible with observations. Recently, it was claimed that the generalized Galileon term induces instabilities during the oscillation phase, and that the simplest Higgs G-inflation model inevitably suffers from this problem. In this paper, we extend the original Higgs G-inflation Lagrangian to a more general form, namely introducing a higher-order kinetic term and generalizing the form of the Galileon term, so that the Higgs field can oscillate after inflation without encountering instabilities. Moreover, it accommodates a large region of the n{sub s}-r plane, most of which is consistent with current observations, leading us to expect the detection of B-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background in the near future.

A smooth exit from eternal inflation?

Science.gov (United States)

Hawking, S. W.; Hertog, Thomas

2018-04-01

The usual theory of inflation breaks down in eternal inflation. We derive a dual description of eternal inflation in terms of a deformed Euclidean CFT located at the threshold of eternal inflation. The partition function gives the amplitude of different geometries of the threshold surface in the no-boundary state. Its local and global behavior in dual toy models shows that the amplitude is low for surfaces which are not nearly conformal to the round three-sphere and essentially zero for surfaces with negative curvature. Based on this we conjecture that the exit from eternal inflation does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth.

A Theory of Interest Rate Stepping : Inflation Targeting in a Dynamic Menu Cost Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Schaling, E.; Verhagen, W.H.

1999-01-01

Abstract: A stylised fact of monetary policy making is that central banks do not immediately respond to new information but rather seem to prefer to wait until sufficient ‘evidence’ to warrant a change has accumulated. However, theoretical models of inflation targeting imply that an optimising

A critical review of inflation

CERN Document Server

Turok, N G

2002-01-01

The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it.

A critical review of inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turok, Neil

2002-01-01

The theory of cosmic inflation offers an attractive resolution of some of the great paradoxes in cosmology: why the universe is so large, flat and uniform on large scales, and how density variations arose. Inflation has rightly dominated cosmological thinking for the past two decades, helping stimulate the development of high-precision observational programmes. The survival of simple inflationary models in the face of an impressive observational onslaught has been interpreted as convincing evidence of the correctness of the basic idea. In this paper, I review inflation, but highlight its weaknesses, explaining my reasons for believing that a more complete theory may supersede inflation without necessarily incorporating it

Inflation and the Higgs Scalar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Green, Dan [Fermi National Accelerator Lab. (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States)

2014-12-05

This note makes a self-contained exposition of the basic facts of big bang cosmology as they relate to inflation. The fundamental problems with that model are then explored. A simple scalar model of inflation is evaluated which provides the solution of those problems and makes predictions which will soon be definitively tested. The possibility that the recently discovered fundamental Higgs scalar field drives inflation is explored.

How useful are leading indicators of inflation?

OpenAIRE

C. Alan Garner

1995-01-01

Many economists expect inflation to rise in 1995. These expectations are based on various approaches to forecasting inflation. One approach is based on the standard economic theory that inflation rises when slack is eliminated from the economy and production exceeds capacity constraints. According to this view, measures of economic slack such as unemployment and capacity utilization provide useful information about the inflation outlook. But the relationship between slack and inflation is com...

Ten years of inflation targeting in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bungin Sanja

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Monetary strategy of inflation targeting in Serbia was unofficially introduced in September 2006. The National Bank of Serbia has faced the numerous challenges that are typical for transition countries which apply the same strategy. At the start of inflation targeting, inflation was reduced to a single-digit number, which characterises most other countries. However, the volatility of inflation during the implementation of the strategy has been extremely high, mainly caused by the changes of processed and unprocessed food prices. Moreover, for a country with a high degree of euroisation, such as Serbia, the exchange rate plays an important role in the movement of inflation. Controlling the trends of the exchange rate in order to maintain the stability of inflation is contrary to the assumptions of inflation targeting. However, it can be concluded that despite all the obstacles faced by the NBS, inflation targeting is the optimal choice of a monetary strategy.

Time-Consistency Problem and the Behavior of US Inflation from 1970 to 2008

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nonejad, Nima

show that the Federal Reserve places more weight on inflation stabilization throughout the bigger part of the 1980s and 1990s while on the other hand the Federal Reserve is pursuing a policy of placing more weight on its goals for unemployment reduction in the 1970s and from 2003 to 2008....

Chaotic dynamics in optimal monetary policy

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, O.; Mendes, V. M.; Mendes, D. A.; Sousa Ramos, J.

2007-05-01

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King [ NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997 edited by B. Bernanke and J. Rotemberg (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), pp. 231 282], Clarida et al. [J. Econ. Lit. 37, 1661 (1999)], Svensson [J. Mon. Econ. 43, 607 (1999)] and Woodford [ Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy (Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 2003)]. In this paper we extend the standard optimal monetary policy model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into the structure of the standard model in a discrete time and deterministic framework produces radical changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy. We emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle-path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable equilibria and chaotic attractors; (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem intuitively correct. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate has a lower mean and is less volatile; secondly, when the degree of price stickiness is high, the inflation rate displays a larger mean and higher volatility (but this is sensitive to the values given to the parameters of the model); and thirdly, the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its

The scale of inflation in the landscape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A.

2013-03-01

We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r∝O(10 -3 ) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.

The scale of inflation in the landscape

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pedro, F.G.; Westphal, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group

2013-03-15

We determine the frequency of regions of small-field inflation in the Wigner landscape as an approximation to random supergravities/type IIB flux compactifications. We show that small-field inflation occurs exponentially more often than large-field inflation The power of primordial gravitational waves from inflation is generically tied to the scale of inflation. For small-field models this is below observational reach. However, we find small-field inflation to be dominated by the highest inflationary energy scales compatible with a sub-Planckian field range. Hence, we expect a typical tensor-to-scalar ratio r{proportional_to}O(10{sup -3}) currently undetectable in upcoming CMB measurements.

Inflation experiences of retirees

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kalwij, Adriaan; Alessie, Robertus; Gardner, Jonathan; Ali, Ashik Anwar

The inflation experience of people depends on their expenditure patterns and price developments. This paper identifies groups of retirees that have experienced relatively high price inflation over the last few decades and could thus be considered most vulnerable when income decreases, as has been

Affleck-Dine baryogenesis just after inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, Masaki

2015-11-01

We propose a new scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis where a at direction in the MSSM generates B-L asymmetry just after the end of inflation. The resulting amount of baryon asymmetry is independent of low-energy supersymmetric models but is dependent on inflation models. We consider the hybrid and chaotic inflation models and find that reheating temperature is required to be higher than that in the conventional scenario of Affleck-Dine baryogenesis. In particular, non-thermal gravitino-overproduction problem is naturally avoided in the hybrid inflation model. Our results imply that Affleck-Dine baryogenesis can be realized in a broader range of supersymmetry and inflation models than expected in the literature.

Goldstone inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack

2015-01-01

Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

Goldstone inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex,Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom)

2015-10-05

Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

Goldstone inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Croon, Djuna; Sanz, Verónica; Setford, Jack

2015-10-01

Identifying the inflaton with a pseudo-Goldstone boson explains the flatness of its potential. Successful Goldstone Inflation should also be robust against UV corrections, such as from quantum gravity: in the language of the effective field theory this implies that all scales are sub-Planckian. In this paper we present scenarios which realise both requirements by examining the structure of Goldstone potentials arising from Coleman-Weinberg contributions. We focus on single-field models, for which we notice that both bosonic and fermionic contributions are required and that spinorial fermion representations can generate the right potential shape. We then evaluate the constraints on non-Gaussianity from higher-derivative interactions, finding that axiomatic constraints on Goldstone boson scattering prevail over the current CMB measurements. The fit to CMB data can be connected to the UV completions for Goldstone Inflation, finding relations in the spectrum of new resonances. Finally, we show how hybrid inflation can be realised in the same context, where both the inflaton and the waterfall fields share a common origin as Goldstones.

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ROŞOIU

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

Dark energy from gravitoelectromagnetic inflation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Membiela, A.; Bellini, M.

2008-01-01

Gravitoelectromagnetic Inflation (GI) was introduced to describe in a unified manner electromagnetic, gravitatory and inflation fields from a 5D vacuum state. On the other hand, the primordial origin and evolution of dark energy is today unknown. In this letter we show using GI that the zero modes of some redefined vector fields B i = A i /a produced during inflation could be the source of dark energy in the Universe.

Inflation and Failure of Polymeric Membranes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hassager, Ole; Neergaard, Jesper

2000-01-01

We consider the inflation of an axisymmetric polymeric membrane.Some membranes composed of viscoelastic materialsdescribed by a Mooney-Rivlin model show a monotone increasingpressure during inflation. These materialsdevelop a homogeneous membrane thickness in agreement with the Considere...... is found to stabilize the inflated polymer membrane....

Anisotropic inflation reexamined: upper bound on broken rotational invariance during inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naruko, Atsushi; Yamaguchi, Masahide; Komatsu, Eiichiro

2015-01-01

The presence of a light vector field coupled to a scalar field during inflation makes a distinct prediction: the observed correlation functions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) become statistically anisotropic. We study the implications of the current bound on statistical anisotropy derived from the Planck 2013 CMB temperature data for such a model. The previous calculations based on the attractor solution indicate that the magnitude of anisotropy in the power spectrum is proportional to N 2 , where N is the number of e-folds of inflation counted from the end of inflation. In this paper, we show that the attractor solution is not necessarily compatible with the current bound, and derive new predictions using another branch of anisotropic inflation. In addition, we improve upon the calculation of the mode function of perturbations by including the leading-order slow-roll corrections. We find that the anisotropy is roughly proportional to [2(ε H +4η H )/3−4(c−1)] −2 , where ε H and η H are the usual slow-roll parameters and c is the parameter in the model, regardless of the form of potential of an inflaton field. The bound from Planck implies that breaking of rotational invariance during inflation (characterized by the background homogeneous shear divided by the Hubble rate) is limited to be less than O(10 −9 ). This bound is many orders of magnitude smaller than the amplitude of breaking of time translation invariance, which is observed to be O(10 −2 )

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Grigoli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

Linear inflation from quartic potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kannike, Kristjan; Racioppi, Antonio [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,Tartu (Estonia)

2016-01-07

We show that if the inflaton has a non-minimal coupling to gravity and the Planck scale is dynamically generated, the results of Coleman-Weinberg inflation are confined in between two attractor solutions: quadratic inflation, which is ruled out by the recent measurements, and linear inflation which, instead, is in the experimental allowed region. The minimal scenario has only one free parameter — the inflaton’s non-minimal coupling to gravity — that determines all physical parameters such as the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the reheating temperature of the Universe. Should the more precise future measurements of inflationary parameters point towards linear inflation, further interest in scale-invariant scenarios would be motivated.

Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run

OpenAIRE

Olmos, Lorena; Sanso Frago, Marcos

2014-01-01

We find non-linearities in the U.S. long-run relationships among trend inflation, growth rate and financial frictions. Moreover, our results show that mismeasurements of the natural rate of interest deviate the trend inflation from its target, which is especially clear when monetary policy reacts preventively against inflation deviations. The long-run growth rate, the trend inflation and the natural rate of interest, specified as time-varying, are jointly estimated over the period 1960:Q1-201...

Effects of the application of targeting the exchange rate policy in Macedonia

OpenAIRE

Nikoloski, Krume; Paceskoski, Vlatko; Panova, Sanja

2016-01-01

The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary in...

Cointegration Approach to Analysing Inflation in Croatia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lena Malešević-Perović

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of inflation in Croatia in the period 1994:6-2006:6. We use a cointegration approach and find that increases in wages positively influence inflation in the long-run. Furthermore, in the period from June 1994 onward, the depreciation of the currency also contributed to inflation. Money does not explain Croatian inflation. This irrelevance of the money supply is consistent with its endogeneity to exchange rate targeting, whereby the money supply is determined by developments in the foreign exchange market. The value of inflation in the previous period is also found to be significant, thus indicating some inflation inertia.

Gauge fields and inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Maleknejad, A.; Sheikh-Jabbari, M. M.; Soda, J.

2013-07-01

The isotropy and homogeneity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) favors “scalar driven” early Universe inflationary models. However, gauge fields and other non-scalar fields are far more common at all energy scales, in particular at high energies seemingly relevant to inflation models. Hence, in this review we consider the role and consequences, theoretical and observational, that gauge fields can have during the inflationary era. Gauge fields may be turned on in the background during inflation, or may become relevant at the level of cosmic perturbations. There have been two main classes of models with gauge fields in the background, models which show violation of the cosmic no-hair theorem and those which lead to isotropic FLRW cosmology, respecting the cosmic no-hair theorem. Models in which gauge fields are only turned on at the cosmic perturbation level, may source primordial magnetic fields. We also review specific observational features of these models on the CMB and/or the primordial cosmic magnetic fields. Our discussions will be mainly focused on the inflation period, with only a brief discussion on the post inflationary (p)reheating era. Large field models: The initial value of the inflaton field is large, generically super-Planckian, and it rolls slowly down toward the potential minimum at smaller φ values. For instance, chaotic inflation is one of the representative models of this class. The typical potential of large-field models has a monomial form as V(φ)=V0φn. A simple analysis using the dynamical equations reveals that for number of e-folds Ne larger than 60, we require super-Planckian initial field values,5φ0>3M. For these models typically ɛ˜η˜Ne-1. Small field models: Inflaton field is initially small and slowly evolves toward the potential minimum at larger φ values. The small field models are characterized by the following potential V(φ)=V0(1-(), which corresponds to a Taylor expansion about the origin, but more realistic

46 CFR 169.849 - Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable liferafts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Inspections § 169.849 Posting placards containing instructions for launching and inflating inflatable... accessible to the ship's company and guests approved placards containing instructions for launching and... determined by the Officer in Charge, Marine Inspection. ...

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

Sneutrino Hybrid Inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan

2006-01-01

We review the scenario of sneutrino hybrid inflation, where one of the singlet sneutrinos, the superpartners of the right-handed neutrinos, plays the role of the inflaton. In a minimal model of sneutrino hybrid inflation, the spectral index is given by ns ≅ 1 + 2γ. With γ = 0.025 ± 0.01 constrained by WMAP, a running spectral index vertical bar dns/dlnk vertical bar << vertical barγvertical bar and a tensor-to-scalar ratio r << γ2 are predicted. Small neutrino masses arise from the seesaw mechanism, with heavy masses for the singlet (s)neutrinos generated by the vacuum expectation value of the waterfall field after inflation. The baryon asymmetry of the universe can be explained by non-thermal leptogenesis via sneutrino inflaton decay, with low reheat temperature TRH ≅ 106 GeV

12 CFR 1780.80 - Inflation adjustments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inflation adjustments. 1780.80 Section 1780.80... DEVELOPMENT RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Civil Money Penalty Inflation Adjustments § 1780.80 Inflation adjustments. The maximum amount of each civil money penalty within OFHEO's...

The ECB's fight against low inflation : On the effects of ultra-low interest rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Riet, Ad

2017-01-01

Starting in June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped up its monetary accommodation in order to counter a too prolonged period of low inflation in the euro area. This article offers a narrative of the monetary policy measures taken up to December 2016 and a review of the effects of

Bank of England’s monetary policy committee – assessing the importance and the implication upon monetary policy

OpenAIRE

Florin Cornel DUMITER; Horatiu Florin SOIM

2012-01-01

The monetary policy strategies arround the world have been envolving in the last two decades considerable. In the past, central banks’ have been associated with a „veil of mistery” having at their grounds the so-called policy mistique. Nowadays, the new monetary policy strategy – inflation targeting – promoted by many countries established new coordinates for monetary policy. In this paper we focuse upon the monetary policy committee with a special focus upon the Bank of England’s case, becau...

Curvaton and the inhomogeneous end of inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Assadullahi, Hooshyar; Wands, David; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein

2012-01-01

We study the primordial density perturbations and non-Gaussianities generated from the combined effects of an inhomogeneous end of inflation and curvaton decay in hybrid inflation. This dual role is played by a single isocurvature field which is massless during inflation but acquire a mass at the end of inflation via the waterfall phase transition. We calculate the resulting primordial non-Gaussianity characterized by the non-linearity parameter, f NL , recovering the usual end-of-inflation result when the field decays promptly and the usual curvaton result if the field decays sufficiently late

Scalar-tensor linear inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artymowski, Michał [Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 11, 30-348 Kraków (Poland); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: Michal.Artymowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: Antonio.Racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia)

2017-04-01

We investigate two approaches to non-minimally coupled gravity theories which present linear inflation as attractor solution: a) the scalar-tensor theory approach, where we look for a scalar-tensor theory that would restore results of linear inflation in the strong coupling limit for a non-minimal coupling to gravity of the form of f (φ) R /2; b) the particle physics approach, where we motivate the form of the Jordan frame potential by loop corrections to the inflaton field. In both cases the Jordan frame potentials are modifications of the induced gravity inflationary scenario, but instead of the Starobinsky attractor they lead to linear inflation in the strong coupling limit.

Is the quantity of government debt a constraint for monetary policy?

OpenAIRE

Mitra, Srobona

2015-01-01

This paper derives an interest rate rule for monetary policy in which the interest rate response of the central bank toward an increase in expected inflation falls as debts increase beyond a certain threshold level. A debt-constrained interest rate rule and the threshold level of debt are jointly estimated for Canada during the first decade of its inflation targeting regime of the 1990s. There are three main findings of this paper. First, a high government debt could constrain monetary policy...

On the effects of monetary policy shocks in developing countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magda Kandil

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Using annual data for a sample of developing countries, the time-series evidence indicates the allocation of monetary policy shocks, both expansionary and contractionary, between price inflation and output growth. Subsequently, cross-country regressions evaluate factors that underlie the difference in these allocations and their implications. The real effects of monetary shocks increase as the elasticity of aggregate demand increases with respect to monetary shocks. Nonetheless, capacity constraints hamper the output adjustment to monetary shocks and increase price inflation. Across countries, trend output growth increases with the output response to monetary shocks. Consistent with the stabilizing function of monetary policy, the variability of output growth decreases in the face of monetary fluctuations across countries. In contrast, monetary fluctuations increase the trend and variability of price inflation across countries.

Inflation of a Polymeric Menbrane

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Susanne B.; Larsen, Johannes R.; Hassager, Ole

1998-01-01

We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane.......We consider an axisymmetric polymeric membrane inflated by a uniform pressure difference acting across the membrane....

Accidental inflation from Kähler uplifting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Westphal, Alexander; Wieck, Clemens [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Theory Group, Notkestrasse 85, D-22603 Hamburg (Germany); Jing, Shenglin, E-mail: ido.bendayan@desy.de, E-mail: shenglin.jing@utoronto.ca, E-mail: alexander.westphal@desy.de, E-mail: clemens.wieck@desy.de [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St.George Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 3H8 (Canada)

2014-03-01

We analyze the possibility of realizing inflation with a subsequent dS vacuum in the Käahler uplifting scenario. The inclusion of several quantum corrections to the 4d effective action evades previous no-go theorems and allows for construction of simple and successful models of string inflation. The predictions of several benchmark models are in accord with current observations, i.e., a red spectral index, negligible non-gaussianity, and spectral distortions similar to the simplest models of inflation. A particularly interesting subclass of models are ''left-rolling'' ones, where the overall volume of the compactified dimensions shrinks during inflation. We call this phenomenon ''inflation by deflation'' (IBD), where deflation refers to the internal manifold. This subclass has the appealing features of being insensitive to initial conditions, avoiding the overshooting problem, and allowing for observable running α ∼ 0.012 and enhanced tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −5}. The latter results differ significantly from many string inflation models.

When Parents' Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates.

Science.gov (United States)

Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio de Castro, Bram

2017-11-01

Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to form narcissistic self-views (self-inflation hypothesis). These perspectives were tested in an observational-longitudinal study (120 parent-child dyads from the Netherlands) in late childhood (ages 7-11), when narcissism and self-esteem first emerge. Supporting the self-deflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted lower self-esteem in children. Partly supporting the self-inflation hypothesis, parents' inflated praise predicted higher narcissism-but only in children with high self-esteem. Noninflated praise predicted neither self-esteem nor narcissism. Thus, inflated praise may foster the self-views it seeks to prevent. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Constant-roll tachyon inflation and observational constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Qing; Gong, Yungui; Fei, Qin

2018-05-01

For the constant-roll tachyon inflation, we derive the analytical expressions for the scalar and tensor power spectra, the scalar and tensor spectral tilts and the tensor to scalar ratio to the first order of epsilon1 by using the method of Bessel function approximation. The derived ns-r results are compared with the observations, we find that only the constant-roll inflation with ηH being a constant is consistent with the observations and observations constrain the constant-roll inflation to be slow-roll inflation. The tachyon potential is also reconstructed for the constant-roll inflation which is consistent with the observations.

Flipped GUT inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN, Route de Meyrin 385, 1217 Meyrin (Switzerland); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

2015-03-23

We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

Flipped GUT inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King' s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih, E-mail: john.ellis@cern.ch, E-mail: tomas.gonzalo.11@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: j.harz@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: wei-chih.huang@ucl.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

2015-03-01

We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, A{sub s}, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, n{sub s}, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, r. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

Flipped GUT Inflation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih

2015-01-01

We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)$\\times$U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model parameter spaces that are compatible with the experimental magnitudes of the scalar perturbations, $A_s$, and the tilt in the scalar perturbation spectrum, $n_s$, as well as with an indicative upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar perturbation ratio, $r$. We also discuss embeddings of these models into SO(10), which is broken at a higher scale so that its monopoles are inflated away.

On inflation in the heterotic superstring model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maeda, K.; Pollock, M.D.

1985-11-01

We consider the possibility of achieving inflation in the field-theory limit of the E 8 xE 8 superstring model. We show that neither type I inflation nor inflation due to a SUSY-breaking gaugino-condensation potential, is possible, essentially because of the absence of free dimensionless parameters. Kaluza-Klein type inflation is ruled out because the internal space is Ricci flat. The occurrence of type II inflation (due to some gauge singlet 'inflaton' field phi) depends upon the form of the superpotential F and of the Kaehler potential G, but this also seems not to be possible, unless the SU(n,1) symmetry can be broken in a particular way. Hence, some new type of compactification scheme may be called for, or a different type of inflation

Trapped Inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Green, Daniel; Horn, Bart; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.; Senatore, Leonardo; /Princeton, Inst. Advanced Study /Harvard U., Phys. Dept. /Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Silverstein, Eva; /SLAC /Stanford U., Phys. Dept.

2009-06-19

We analyze a distinctive mechanism for inflation in which particle production slows down a scalar field on a steep potential, and show how it descends from angular moduli in string compactifications. The analysis of density perturbations - taking into account the integrated effect of the produced particles and their quantum fluctuations - requires somewhat new techniques that we develop. We then determine the conditions for this effect to produce sixty e-foldings of inflation with the correct amplitude of density perturbations at the Gaussian level, and show that these requirements can be straightforwardly satisfied. Finally, we estimate the amplitude of the non-Gaussianity in the power spectrum and find a significant equilateral contribution.

Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

Ultra-modified rapid sequence induction with transnasal humidified rapid insufflation ventilatory exchange: Challenging convention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ketan Sakharam Kulkarni

2018-01-01

Full Text Available During positive pressure ventilation, gastric inflation and subsequent pulmonary aspiration can occur. Rapid sequence induction (RSI technique is an age-old formula to prevent this. We adopted a novel approach of RSI for patients with high risk of aspiration and evaluated it further in patients undergoing laparoscopic surgeries. We believe that, in patients with risk of gastric insufflation and pulmonary aspiration, transnasal humidified rapid-insufflation ventilatory exchange can be useful in facilitating pre- and apnoeic oxygenation till tracheal isolation is achieved.

Aspects of supersymmetric inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindblom, P.R.

1987-01-01

A new supersymmetric inflationary model is presented and shown to possess the following features: a successful slow rollover produced by quantum corrections; an acceptable pattern of supersymmetry breaking leading to the correct value of the electroweak scale; and a stable slow rollover transition to a minimum with vanishing cosmological constant. It is demonstrated that there is a class of GUT models which are compatible with an inflationary universe scenario in which: (a) the GUT and inflationary phase transitions are distinct (as in supersymmetric inflation); and (b) an observable number of GUT monopoles are created thermally due to reheating of the GUT sector after inflation. This provides one of the few ways of reconciling an observation of GUT monopoles with inflation. New techniques are developed for constructing inflationary models with multiple inflation fields, such as generalizing the one-dimensional slow rollover constraints and estimating the contribution to δρ/ρ from fluctuations transverse to the path of the slow rollover. A new method for ending the slow rollover portion of the inflationary transition is developed

Effect of the length of inflation on angular TT and TE power spectra in power-law inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirai, Shiro; Takami, Tomoyuki

2006-01-01

The effect of the length of inflation on the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations is estimated using the power-law inflation model with a scale factor of a(η) = (-η) p = t q . Considering various pre-inflation models with radiation-dominated or scalar matter-dominated periods before inflation in combination with two matching conditions, the temperature angular power spectrum (TT) and temperature-polarization cross-power spectrum (TE) are calculated and a likelihood analysis is performed. It is shown that the discrepancies between the Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP) data and the ΛCDM model, such as suppression of the spectrum at l = 2, 3 and oscillatory behaviour, may be explained by the finite length of inflation model if the length of inflation is near 60 e-folds and q ≥ 300. The proposed models retain similar values of χ 2 to that achieved by the ΛCDM model with respect to fit to the WMAP data, but display different characteristics of the angular TE power spectra at l ≤ 20

EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KRUME NIKOLOSKI

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

Anisotropic constant-roll inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro [Kobe University, Department of Physics, Kobe (Japan)

2018-01-15

We study constant-roll inflation in the presence of a gauge field coupled to an inflaton. By imposing the constant anisotropy condition, we find new exact anisotropic constant-roll inflationary solutions which include anisotropic power-law inflation as a special case. We also numerically show that the new anisotropic solutions are attractors in the phase space. (orig.)

The inflation sector of extended inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolb, E.W.

1990-11-01

In extended inflation the inflationary era is brought to a close by the process of percolation of true vacuum bubbles produced in a first-order phase transition. In this paper I discuss several effects that might obtain if the Universe undergoes an inflationary first-order phase transition. 17 refs

ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SESUDAH DITERAPKANNYA KEBIJAKAN INFLATION TARGETING FRAMEWORK PERIODE 2002:1 –2010:12

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murti Sari Dewi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This thesis want to see effect of macroeconomics variables of inflation in Indonesia before and after Inflation Targeting Framework Policy period 2002:1 – 2010:12. The data used in this study is a secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia. Variables are in use, among others: the level of inflation (CPI, the money supply, government expenditure, exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, and the dummy variable. Analysis tool used is a dynamic model. This model explains the influence of the relationship between the dependent variable with independent variables in the short and long term. The results of this study concluded that the variables in the money supply, government expenditure , and exchange rates have a significant effect on inflation in the long run, while in the short term had no significant effect on inflation, so that this study produces a long-term equation. Based on the results of previous studies both concluded that the variables in the money supply, government expenditure , and exchange rates have a significant effect on inflation in the long run, while in the short term had no significant effect on inflation.

Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A. [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Physics Department, Kings College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia, E-mail: katy.clough@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: eugene.a.lim@gmail.com, E-mail: bsd86@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: fischler@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: flauger@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: paban@physics.utexas.edu [Department of Physics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712 (United States)

2017-09-01

We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.

Inflation targeting and economic performance: The case of Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carrasco Carlos A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In the paper we analyze the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT in Mexico. The objective is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of inflation targeting and full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT on the level and the variability of the inflation and the output in the Mexican economy. We conclude that inflation rates had been reduced in Mexico before the introduction of IT and FFIT. In our opinion, the structural reforms, including the Banxico reforms, are the main determinants of the decrease in inflation and its variability. The main impact of IT would have been the lock-in of inflation expectations around a low rate of inflation.

Determinant and impacts of dynamic inflation in Ethiopia

OpenAIRE

Biresaw, Temesgen Tezera

2014-01-01

This thesis uses quarterly data for the period 1998-2010 to investigate the determinant and impacts of dynamic inflation in Ethiopia. By using Granger causality model approach four testable hypotheses are investigated: (1) does the money supply growth Granger-cause inflation? (2) Does currency devaluation Granger cause inflation? (3) Does inflation affect economic growth? And (4) Does oil price Granger cause of inflation? The empirical results suggest that there existed a bi-directional ...

Project Evaluation under Inflation Condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hindy, M.; El Missiry, P.

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the role of inflation in capital budgeting and attempts to introduce solutions to such implication in order to make the appropriate decision for the firm' stockholders under these circumstances. Inflation leads to biasness in evaluating the investment projects, due to its impact on the cash flow, the discount rate, the initial investment cost, and the depreciation. This paper has shown that the capital budgeting process is not neutral with respect to inflation, as the output prices will raise as well as the operating and capital expenditures will also be adjusted due to inflation. In addition, it has shown that it is reasonable to expect that the cost of capital will increase as a result of an increase in the real interest rate, the inflation premium, and the cost of equity. Of critical importance is the basis used in calculating the annual depreciation which may lead to the transfer of wealth from the investment projects to the government and will result in underestimating the net present value of the investment projects, if these depreciation charges is calculated based upon the historical values and not on the replacement cost of the fixed assets

Inflatable Dark Matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Davoudiasl, Hooman; Hooper, Dan; McDermott, Samuel D

2016-01-22

We describe a general scenario, dubbed "inflatable dark matter," in which the density of dark matter particles can be reduced through a short period of late-time inflation in the early Universe. The overproduction of dark matter that is predicted within many, otherwise, well-motivated models of new physics can be elegantly remedied within this context. Thermal relics that would, otherwise, be disfavored can easily be accommodated within this class of scenarios, including dark matter candidates that are very heavy or very light. Furthermore, the nonthermal abundance of grand unified theory or Planck scale axions can be brought to acceptable levels without invoking anthropic tuning of initial conditions. A period of late-time inflation could have occurred over a wide range of scales from ∼MeV to the weak scale or above, and could have been triggered by physics within a hidden sector, with small but not necessarily negligible couplings to the standard model.

Chain inflation revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chialva, Diego; Danielsson, Ulf H

2008-01-01

This paper represents an in-depth treatment of the chain inflation scenario. We fully determine the evolution of the universe in the model, the conditions necessary in order to have a successful inflationary period, and the matching with the observational results regarding the cosmological perturbations. We study in great detail, and in general, the dynamics of the background, as well as the mechanism of generation of the perturbations. We also find an explicit formula for the spectrum of adiabatic perturbations. Our results prove that chain inflation is a viable model for solving the horizon, entropy and flatness problems of standard cosmology and for generating the right amount of adiabatic cosmological perturbations. The results are radically different from those found in previous works on the subject. Finally, we argue that there is a natural way to embed chain inflation into flux compactified string theory. We discuss the details of the implementation and how to fit observations

On the constant-roll inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Zhu; Gong, Yungui

2018-03-01

The primordial power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations during slow-roll inflation are usually calculated with the method of Bessel function approximation. For constant-roll or ultra slow-roll inflation, the method of Bessel function approximation may be invalid. We compare the numerical results with the analytical results derived from the Bessel function approximation, and we find that they differ significantly on super-horizon scales if the constant slow-roll parameter ηH is not small. More accurate method is needed for calculating the primordial power spectrum for constant-roll inflation.

D-term uplifted racetrack inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brax, P. [Unite de Recherche associee au CNRS, Gif sur Yvette (France). Service de Physique Theorique, CEA/DSM/SPhT; Davis, A.C. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences; Davis, S.C. [Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay (France). Lab. de Physique Theorique et Hautes Energies; Jeannerot, R. [Instituut-Lorentz for Theoretical Physics, Leiden (Netherlands); Postma, M. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)]|[Nationaal Inst. voor Kernfysica en Hoge-Energiefysica (NIKHEF), Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2007-10-15

It is shown that racetrack inflation can be implemented in a moduli stabilisation scenario with a supersymmetric uplifting D-term. The resulting model is completely described by an effective supergravity theory, in contrast to the original racetrack models. We study the inflationary dynamics and show that the gaugino condensates vary during inflation. The resulting spectral index is n{sub s} {approx}0.95 as in the original racetrack inflation model. Hence extra fields do not appear to alter the predictions of the model. An equivalent, simplified model with just a single field is presented. (orig.)

Accidental Kähler moduli inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maharana, Anshuman; Rummel, Markus; Sumitomo, Yoske

2015-01-01

We study a model of accidental inflation in type IIB string theory where inflation occurs near the inflection point of a small Kähler modulus. A racetrack structure helps to alleviate the known concern that string-loop corrections may spoil Kähler Moduli Inflation unless having a significant suppression via the string coupling or a special brane setup. Also, the hierarchy of gauge group ranks required for the separation between moduli stabilization and inflationary dynamics is relaxed. The relaxation becomes more significant when we use the recently proposed D-term generated racetrack model

78 FR 5722 - Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-28

... Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment AGENCY: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DoD. ACTION: Direct... for inflation. The adjustment of civil penalties to account for inflation is required by the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended. Since we have not made any adjustments to...

78 FR 5760 - Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-28

... Civil Monetary Penalty Inflation Adjustment AGENCY: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, DoD. ACTION: Proposed... account for inflation. The adjustment of civil penalties to account for inflation is required by the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended. Since we have not made any...

Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M.

2010-01-01

In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters

Primordial perturbations in multi-scalar inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abedi, Habib; Abbassi, Amir M., E-mail: h.abedi@ut.ac.ir, E-mail: amabasi@khayam.ut.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Tehran, North Kargar Ave, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-07-01

Multiple field models of inflation exhibit new features than single field models. In this work, we study the hierarchy of parameters based on Hubble expansion rate in curved field space and derive the system of flow equations that describe their evolutions. Then we focus on obtaining derivatives of number of e-folds with respect to scalar fields during inflation and at hypersurface of the end of inflation.

Inflation differentials among Czech households

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janský, Petr; Hait, Pavel

2016-01-01

Roč. 25, č. 1 (2016), s. 71-84 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD020188 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : households * inflation * inflation differentials Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.710, year: 2016

12 CFR 263.65 - Civil penalty inflation adjustments.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Civil penalty inflation adjustments. 263.65... Money Penalties § 263.65 Civil penalty inflation adjustments. (a) Inflation adjustments. In accordance with the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 (28 U.S.C. 2461 note), the Board has...

Inflation Experiences in Latin America, 2007-2008

OpenAIRE

Mark Weisbrot; David Rosnick

2009-01-01

This paper looks briefly at the recent inflation experiences of ten Latin American countries: Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Bolivia. The authors construct a core inflation index (excluding food and energy), and look at three-month changes in both headline and core inflation. The paper focuses on the increase in inflation from April 2007 to July 2008, driven by a surge in food and energy prices worldwide. These prices have sin...

A Growth Model of Inflation, Tax Evasion and Financial Repression

OpenAIRE

Roubini, Nouriel; Sala-i-Martin, Xavier

1992-01-01

In this paper we study the effects of policies of financial repression on long term growth and try to explain why optimizing governments might want to repress the financial sector. We also explain why inflation may be negatively related to growth, even though it does not affect growth directly. We argue that the main reason why governments repress the financial sector is that this sector is the source of "easy" resources for the public budget The source of revenue stemming from this intervent...

OUTPUT VOLATILITY AND EXCHANGE RATE CONSIDERATIONS UNDER INFLATION TARGETING : A REVIEW

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marjan Petreski

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of the paper is to offer a critique on the theoretical and empirical literature on inflation targeting (IT. It seems to exist a consensus in the theoretical literature that this monetary regime reduces both inflation and output volatility, mainly through building monetary policy credibility. When the role of the exchange rate is discussed, while there are some arguments that, as an instrument, it should not be explicitly stated in the central-bank loss function, theoretical arguments and evidence are still mixed as regards the effectiveness of exchange-rate management under IT. On the empirical front, the paper concludes that despite the fact that the work on IT in the last two decades has been immense in quality and quantity, still there is no quantitatively-credible study for the developing world, let alone a study that appropriately measures the regime switch from one monetary strategy to another.

Transdimensional physics and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio

2002-01-01

Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR) 2 , where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries

Transdimensional physics and inflation

CERN Document Server

Giudice, Gian Francesco; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio; Giudice, Gian F.; Kolb, Edward W.; Lesgourgues, Julien; Riotto, Antonio

2002-01-01

Within the framework of a five-dimensional brane world with a stabilized radion, we compute the cosmological perturbations generated during inflation and show that the perturbations are a powerful tool to probe the physics of extra dimensions. While we find that the power spectrum of scalar perturbations is unchanged, we show that the existence of the fifth dimension is imprinted on the spectrum of gravitational waves generated during inflation. In particular, we find that the tensor perturbations receive a correction proportional to (HR)^2, where H is the Hubble expansion rate during inflation and R is the size of the extra dimension. We also generalize our findings to the case of several extra dimensions as well as to warped geometries.

Inflation of Unreefed and Reefed Extraction Parachutes

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, Eric S.; Varela, Jose G.

2015-01-01

Data from the Orion and several other test programs have been used to reconstruct inflation parameters for 28 ft Do extraction parachutes as well as the parent aircraft pitch response during extraction. The inflation force generated by extraction parachutes is recorded directly during tow tests but is usually inferred from the payload accelerometer during Low Velocity Airdrop Delivery (LVAD) flight test extractions. Inflation parameters are dependent on the type of parent aircraft, number of canopies, and standard vs. high altitude extraction conditions. For standard altitudes, single canopy inflations are modeled as infinite mass, but the non-symmetric inflations in a cluster are modeled as finite mass. High altitude extractions have necessitated reefing the extraction parachutes, which are best modeled as infinite mass for those conditions. Distributions of aircraft pitch profiles and inflation parameters have been generated for use in Monte Carlo simulations of payload extractions.

Clockwork Inflation

CERN Document Server

Kehagias, Alex

2017-01-01

We investigate the recently proposed clockwork mechanism delivering light degrees of freedom with suppressed interactions and show, with various examples, that it can be efficiently implemented in inflationary scenarios to generate flat inflaton potentials and small density perturbations without fine-tunings. We also study the clockwork graviton in de Sitter and, interestingly, we find that the corresponding clockwork charge is site-dependent. As a consequence, the amount of tensor modes is generically suppressed with respect to the standard cases where the clockwork set-up is not adopted. This point can be made a virtue in resurrecting models of inflation which were supposed to be ruled out because of the excessive amount of tensor modes from inflation.

How Transparent About its Inflation Target Should a Central Bank be? An Agent-Based Model Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salle, I.; Sénégas, M.A.; Yıldızoğlu, M.

2013-01-01

This paper revisits the benefits of explicitly announcing an inflation target for the con- duct of monetary policy in the framework of an agent-based model (ABM). This framework offers a flexible tool for modeling heterogeneity among individual agents and their bounded rationality, and to emphasize,

Flipped GUT inflation

OpenAIRE

Ellis, John; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Harz, Julia; Huang, Wei-Chih

2015-01-01

We analyse the prospects for constructing hybrid models of inflation that provide a dynamical realisation of the apparent closeness between the supersymmetric GUT scale and the possible scale of cosmological inflation. In the first place, we consider models based on the flipped SU(5)×U(1) gauge group, which has no magnetic monopoles. In one model, the inflaton is identified with a sneutrino field, and in the other model it is a gauge singlet. In both cases we find regions of the model paramet...

Symmetry and inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chimento, Luis P.

2002-01-01

We find the group of symmetry transformations under which the Einstein equations for the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe are form invariant. They relate the energy density and the pressure of the fluid to the expansion rate. We show that inflation can be obtained from nonaccelerated scenarios by a symmetry transformation. We derive the transformation rule for the spectrum and spectral index of the curvature perturbations. Finally, the group is extended to investigate inflation in the anisotropic Bianchi type-I spacetime and the brane-world cosmology

Inflatable Re-Entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) Design Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Stephen J.; Dillman, Robert A.; Starr, Brett R.; Stephan, Ryan A.; Lindell, Michael C.; Player, Charles J.; Cheatwood, F. McNeil

2005-01-01

Inflatable aeroshells offer several advantages over traditional rigid aeroshells for atmospheric entry. Inflatables offer increased payload volume fraction of the launch vehicle shroud and the possibility to deliver more payload mass to the surface for equivalent trajectory constraints. An inflatable s diameter is not constrained by the launch vehicle shroud. The resultant larger drag area can provide deceleration equivalent to a rigid system at higher atmospheric altitudes, thus offering access to higher landing sites. When stowed for launch and cruise, inflatable aeroshells allow access to the payload after the vehicle is integrated for launch and offer direct access to vehicle structure for structural attachment with the launch vehicle. They also offer an opportunity to eliminate system duplication between the cruise stage and entry vehicle. There are however several potential technical challenges for inflatable aeroshells. First and foremost is the fact that they are flexible structures. That flexibility could lead to unpredictable drag performance or an aerostructural dynamic instability. In addition, durability of large inflatable structures may limit their application. They are susceptible to puncture, a potentially catastrophic insult, from many possible sources. Finally, aerothermal heating during planetary entry poses a significant challenge to a thin membrane. NASA Langley Research Center and NASA's Wallops Flight Facility are jointly developing inflatable aeroshell technology for use on future NASA missions. The technology will be demonstrated in the Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE). This paper will detail the development of the initial IRVE inflatable system to be launched on a Terrier/Orion sounding rocket in the fourth quarter of CY2005. The experiment will demonstrate achievable packaging efficiency of the inflatable aeroshell for launch, inflation, leak performance of the inflatable system throughout the flight regime, structural

Multi-brid inflation and non-gaussianity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Misao

2008-01-01

We consider a class of multi-component hybrid inflation models whose evolution may be analytically solved under the slow-roll approximation. We call it multi-brid inflation (or n-brid inflation where n stands for the number of inflaton fields). As an explicit example, we consider a two-brid inflation model, in which the inflaton potentials are of exponential type and a waterfall field that terminates inflation has the standard quartic potential with two minima. Using the δN formalism, we derive an expression for the curvature perturbation valid to full nonlinear order. Then we give an explicit expression for the curvature perturbation to second order in the inflaton perturbation. We find that the final from of the curvature perturbation depends crucially on how the inflation ends. Using this expression, we present closed analytical expressions for the spectrum of the curvature perturbation Ps(k), the spectral index n s , the tensor to scalar ratio r, and the non-Gaussian parameter f NL local , in terms of the model parameters. We find that a wide range of the parameter space (n s , r, f NL local ) can be covered by varying the model parameters within a physically reasonable range. In particular, for plausible values of the model parameters, we may have a large non-Gaussianity f NL local ∼10-100. This is in sharp contrast to the case of single-field hybrid inflation in which these parameters are tightly constrained. (author)

Modelling the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank

OpenAIRE

Otero, Jesus; Ramírez, Manuel

2008-01-01

This paper proposes a simple Ordered Probit model to analyse the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank. There is evidence that the reaction function is asymmetric, in the sense that the Bank increases the Bank rate when the gap between observed inflation and the inflation target (lagged once) is positive, but it does not reduce the Bank rate when the gap is negative. This behaviour suggests that the Bank is more interested in fulfilling the announced inflation target...

Does string theory lead to extended inflation?

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Bruce A.; Linde, Andrei; Olive, Keith A.

1991-05-01

We consider the relationship between string theory and currently proposed models of extended inflation. In doing so, we discuss the conformal actions in string theory and in Jordan-Brans-Dicke gravity. We show explicitly the equivalence of pictures in which either gauge or gravitational couplings are changing with time. We demonstrate that the existence of the dilation in string theory does not naturally lead to extended inflation as currently discussed. We also discuss the resolution of the graceful exit problem of old inflation in Einstein gravity using either power-law inflation, or exponential inflation with a changing bubble formation rate. On leave of absence from School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.

Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy Conduct in Nigeria: A Preliminary Investigation

OpenAIRE

Ekor, Maxwell; Saka, Jimoh; Adeniyi, Oluwatosin

2014-01-01

The study provides an incisive but preliminary investigation into the activities of the monetary policy committee of the central bank of Nigeria and the implications for monetary policy, using the standard deviation measure of volatility and the ordinary least square method. The findings show that the ‘internal’ members and majority of the ‘external’ members have different preferences as shown in the voting patterns. Also, there has been reduction in inflation, money and stock markets vola...

String cosmology. Large-field inflation in string theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Westphal, Alexander

2014-09-01

This is a short review of string cosmology. We wish to connect string-scale physics as closely as possible to observables accessible to current or near-future experiments. Our possible best hope to do so is a description of inflation in string theory. The energy scale of inflation can be as high as that of Grand Unification (GUT). If this is the case, this is the closest we can possibly get in energy scales to string-scale physics. Hence, GUT-scale inflation may be our best candidate phenomenon to preserve traces of string-scale dynamics. Our chance to look for such traces is the primordial gravitational wave, or tensor mode signal produced during inflation. For GUT-scale inflation this is strong enough to be potentially visible as a B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Moreover, a GUT-scale inflation model has a trans-Planckian excursion of the inflaton scalar field during the observable amount of inflation. Such large-field models of inflation have a clear need for symmetry protection against quantum corrections. This makes them ideal candidates for a description in a candidate fundamental theory like string theory. At the same time the need of large-field inflation models for UV completion makes them particularly susceptible to preserve imprints of their string-scale dynamics in the inflationary observables, the spectral index n s and the fractional tensor mode power r. Hence, we focus this review on axion monodromy inflation as a mechanism of large-field inflation in string theory.

Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.

2013-01-01

Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of

Symmetry breaking patterns for inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Remko; Roest, Diederik; Stefanyszyn, David

2018-06-01

We study inflationary models where the kinetic sector of the theory has a non-linearly realised symmetry which is broken by the inflationary potential. We distinguish between kinetic symmetries which non-linearly realise an internal or space-time group, and which yield a flat or curved scalar manifold. This classification leads to well-known inflationary models such as monomial inflation and α-attractors, as well as a new model based on fixed couplings between a dilaton and many axions which non-linearly realises higher-dimensional conformal symmetries. In this model, inflation can be realised along the dilatonic direction, leading to a tensor-to-scalar ratio r ˜ 0 .01 and a spectral index n s ˜ 0 .975. We refer to the new model as ambient inflation since inflation proceeds along an isometry of an anti-de Sitter ambient space-time, which fully determines the kinetic sector.

Sneutrino hybrid inflation and nonthermal leptogenesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antusch, Stefan; Baumann, Jochen P.; Domcke, Valerie F.; Kostka, Philipp M., E-mail: antusch@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: jbaumann@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: domcke@mppmu.mpg.de, E-mail: kostka@mppmu.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany)

2010-10-01

In sneutrino hybrid inflation the superpartner of one of the right-handed neutrinos involved in the seesaw mechanism plays the role of the inflaton field. It obtains its large mass after the ''waterfall'' phase transition which ends hybrid inflation. After this phase transition the oscillations of the sneutrino inflaton field may dominate the universe and efficiently produce the baryon asymmetry of the universe via nonthermal leptogenesis. We investigate the conditions under which inflation, with primordial perturbations in accordance with the latest WMAP results, as well as successful nonthermal leptogenesis can be realized simultaneously within the sneutrino hybrid inflation scenario. We point out which requirements successful inflation and leptogenesis impose on the seesaw parameters, i.e. on the Yukawa couplings and the mass of the right-handed (s)neutrino, and derive the predictions for the CMB observables in terms of the right-handed (s)neutrino mass and the other relevant model parameters.

Higgs portal valleys, stability and inflation

CERN Document Server

Ballesteros, Guillermo

2015-01-01

The measured values of the Higgs and top quark masses imply that the Standard Model potential is very likely to be unstable at large Higgs values. This is particularly problematic during inflation, which sources large perturbations of the Higgs. The instability could be cured by a threshold effect induced by a scalar with a large vacuum expectation value and directly connected to the Standard Model through a Higgs portal coupling. However, we find that in a minimal model in which the scalar generates inflation, this mechanism does not stabilize the potential because the mass required for inflation is beyond the instability scale. This conclusion does not change if the Higgs has a direct weak coupling to the scalar curvature. On the other hand, if the potential is absolutely stable, successful inflation in agreement with current CMB data can occur along a valley of the potential with a Mexican hat profile. We revisit the stability conditions, independently of inflation, and clarify that the threshold effect ca...

Supersymmetric moduli stabilization and high-scale inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchmueller, Wilfried; Wieck, Clemens; Winkler, Martin Wolfgang

2014-04-01

We study the back-reaction of moduli fields on the inflaton potential in generic models of F-term inflation. We derive the moduli corrections as a power series in the ratio of Hubble scale and modulus mass. The general result is illustrated with two examples, hybrid inflation and chaotic inflation. We find that in both cases the decoupling of moduli dynamics and inflation requires moduli masses close to the scale of grand unification. For smaller moduli masses the CMB observables are strongly affected.

Primordial inflation and the monopole problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olive, K.A.; Seckel, D.

1984-01-01

This chapter discusses the cosmological abundance of magnetic monopoles in locally supersymmetry grand unified theories (GUTs) and primordial inflation. It is shown how the magnetic monopole problem can be solved in variants of broken N=1 supergravity primordial inflation. The monopole problem and its solution in inflationary models is reviewed. It is demonstrated that the monopole problem can be solved by coupling primordial inflation to supersymmetric SU(5) breaking

THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Polyakov Egor Nikolaevich

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the conduct of monetary policy in Russia throughout last 10 years. The core method of analysis is ADL modeling. The author explains money supply influence on key macroeconomic variables: investment, consumption, import, inflation, REER. Specifically our results show to what extent GDP growth is determined by money supply growth throughout last 10 years. The author explains efficiency fall of Central Bank expansionary actions throughout last 5 years. The author suggests the set of decisions geared towards increasing the monetary policy efficiency. Ruble devaluation is a key of them. In particular, now the Central Bank of Russia and the Government of the following may be recommended: - gradual devaluation of the ruble by operations in the currency market you with the sterilization of excess money supply; - reduction in the rate of growth of tariffs for electricity, gas, of rail transport to the level of inflation; - reduction in the rate of growth of budget expenditures to the level of inflation. According to the author, these measures will allow monetary policy to revive Russia as an effective tool to stimulate economic growth.

THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN STIMULATING ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Егор Николаевич Поляков

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the conduct of monetary policy in Russia throughout last 10 years. The core method of analysis is ADL modeling. The author explains money supply influence on key macroeconomic variables: investment, consumption, import, inflation, REER. Specifically our results show to what extent GDP growth is determined by money supply growth throughout last 10 years. The author explains efficiency fall of Central Bank expansionary actions throughout last 5 years. The author suggests the set of decisions geared towards increasing the monetary policy efficiency. Ruble devaluation is a key of them.In particular, now the Central Bank of Russia and the Government of the following may be recommended:- gradual devaluation of the ruble by operations in the currency market you with the sterilization of excess money supply;- reduction in the rate of growth of tariffs for electricity, gas, of rail transport to the level of inflation;- reduction in the rate of growth of budget expenditures to the level of inflation.According to the author, these measures will allow monetary policy to revive Russia as an effective tool to stimulate economic growth.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-5-9

Estimation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bungin Sanja

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Transmission mechanism of monetary policy recently has been subject to several studies in Serbia. The so called 'black box' of monetary policy is investigated with aim to identify the effects of transmission channel in environment where exchange rate has a dominant role in central bank operations. Therefore, it is a challenge to approach this problem in inflation targeting regime where key interest rate is expected to prevail as a main policy instrument. The study employs unrestricted Vector Autoregression model for estimating significance of exchange rate and interest rate channel. As expected, exchange rate has far more stronger influence on inflation, even though there are some signs of interest rate channel existence. Introducing Euribor as endogenous variables in VAR system displayed important impact on real variables.

Minimal Composite Inflation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Channuie, Phongpichit; Jark Joergensen, Jakob; Sannino, Francesco

2011-01-01

We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity, and that the u......We investigate models in which the inflaton emerges as a composite field of a four dimensional, strongly interacting and nonsupersymmetric gauge theory featuring purely fermionic matter. We show that it is possible to obtain successful inflation via non-minimal coupling to gravity...

Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chun, Albert Lee

the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

Bianchi models and new inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, M.S.; Widrow, L.

1986-03-01

The promise of the inflationary Universe scenario is to free the present state of the Universe from extreme dependence on initial data. Paradoxically, inflation is usually analyzed in the context of the homogeneous and isotropic Robertson-Walker (RW) cosmological models. We show that all but a small subset of the homogeneous models (the Bianchi models) undergo inflation. Any initial anisotropy is so strongly damped that if sufficient inflation occurs to solve the flatness/horizon problems the Universe today would still be very isotropic. Some of the Bianchi models will eventually (in the exponentially distant future) become very anisotropic again. 15 refs

Natural inflation and quantum gravity.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Fuente, Anton; Saraswat, Prashant; Sundrum, Raman

2015-04-17

Cosmic inflation provides an attractive framework for understanding the early Universe and the cosmic microwave background. It can readily involve energies close to the scale at which quantum gravity effects become important. General considerations of black hole quantum mechanics suggest nontrivial constraints on any effective field theory model of inflation that emerges as a low-energy limit of quantum gravity, in particular, the constraint of the weak gravity conjecture. We show that higher-dimensional gauge and gravitational dynamics can elegantly satisfy these constraints and lead to a viable, theoretically controlled and predictive class of natural inflation models.

Detection of gravitational waves from inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamionkowski, M.; Jaffe, A.H.

2001-01-01

Recent measurements of temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) indicate that the Universe is flat and that large-scale structure grew via gravitational infall from primordial adiabatic perturbations. Both of these observations seem to indicate that we are on the right track with inflation. But what is the new physics responsible for inflation? This question can be answered with observations of the polarization of the CMB. Inflation predicts robustly the existence of a stochastic background of cosmological gravitational waves with an amplitude proportional to the square of the energy scale of inflation. This gravitational-wave background induces a unique signature in the polarization of the CMB. If inflation took place at an energy scale much smaller than that of grand unification, then the signal will be too small to be detectable. However, if inflation had something to do with grand unification or Planck-scale physics, then the signal is conceivably detectable in the optimistic case by the Planck satellite, or if not, then by a dedicated post-Planck CMB polarization experiment. Realistic developments in detector technology as well as a proper scan strategy could produce such a post-Planck experiment that would improve on Planck's sensitivity to the gravitational-wave background by several orders of magnitude in a decade timescale. (author)

Path integral for stochastic inflation: Nonperturbative volume weighting, complex histories, initial conditions, and the end of inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Gratton, Steven

2011-09-01

In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain “Youngness Paradox”-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.

Path integral for stochastic inflation: Nonperturbative volume weighting, complex histories, initial conditions, and the end of inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gratton, Steven

2011-01-01

In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain ''Youngness Paradox''-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.

Low inflation, a high net savings surplus and institutional restrictions keep the Japanese long-term interest rate low

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, Pieter W.

2006-01-01

This paper explains that the interest rate on long-term Japanese government bonds is low in comparison with other industrialised countries for four main reasons: lower inflation, net savings surplus, institutional restrictions and home bias. Monetary policy and institutionalised purchases of

Perturbative analysis of multiple-field cosmological inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahiri, Joydev; Bhattacharya, Gautam

2006-01-01

We develop a general formalism for analyzing linear perturbations in multiple-field cosmological inflation based on the gauge-ready approach. Our inflationary model consists of an arbitrary number of scalar fields with non-minimal kinetic terms. We solve the equations for scalar- and tensor-type perturbations during inflation to the first order in slow roll, and then obtain the super-horizon solutions for adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations after inflation. Analytic expressions for power-spectra and spectral indices arising from multiple-field inflation are presented

DEFROST: a new code for simulating preheating after inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frolov, Andrei V

2008-01-01

At the end of inflation, dynamical instability can rapidly deposit the energy of homogeneous cold inflaton into excitations of other fields. This process, known as preheating, is rather violent, inhomogeneous and non-linear, and has to be studied numerically. This paper presents a new code for simulating scalar field dynamics in an expanding universe written for that purpose. Compared to available alternatives, it significantly improves both the speed and the accuracy of calculations, and is fully instrumented for 3D visualization. We reproduce previously published results on preheating in simple chaotic inflation models, and further investigate non-linear dynamics of the inflaton decay. Surprisingly, we find that the fields do not 'want' to thermalize in quite the way that one would think. Instead of directly reaching equilibrium, the evolution appears to be stuck in a rather simple but quite inhomogeneous state. In particular, a one-point distribution function of total energy density appears to be universal among various two-field preheating models, and is exceedingly well described by a log-normal distribution. It is tempting to attribute this state to scalar field turbulence

Multifield DBI Inflation and Non-Gaussianities

CERN Document Server

Huang, Min-xin; Underwood, Bret

2008-01-01

We analyze the trajectories for multifield DBI inflation, which can arise in brane inflation models, and show that the trajectories are the same as in typical slow roll inflation. We calculate the power spectrum and find that the higher derivative terms of the DBI action lead to a suppression of the contribution from the isocurvature perturbations. We also calculate the bispectrum generated by the isocurvature perturbation, and find that it leads to distinctive features.

Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion

OpenAIRE

Chao Wei

2007-01-01

Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004) use VAR results to advocate inflation illusion as the explanation for the positive association between inflation and the dividend yield. Contrary to their results, we find that a fully rational dynamic general equilibrium model can generate a positive correlation between the dividend yield and inflation of comparable size to its data counterpart. The model results support a proxy hypothesis, according to which, a third factor, which in our model represents tech...

Inflation Dynamics in India: An Analysis

OpenAIRE

Nair, Manju S

2014-01-01

India has exhibited high variability in inflation during the last eight years owing to both internal and external factors. The Global Financial Meltdown, recurrent increase in global oil prices, wage employment programmes, widening current account deficits etc resulted in fluctuations in inflation. These factors have a direct influence on variables like output, money supply, exchange rate which in turn affect inflation. In this context, the study employs a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressi...

Towards natural inflation in string theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Dayan, Ido; Pedro, Francisco G.; Westphal, Alexander

2014-07-01

We provide type IIB string embeddings of two axion variants of natural inflation. We use a combination of RR 2 form axions as the inflaton field and have its potential generated by non perturbative effects in the superpotential. Besides giving rise to inflation, the models developed take into account the stabilization of the compact space, both in the KKLT and large volume scenario regimes, an essential condition for any semi-realistic model of string inflation.

Fibre inflation and α-attractors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States). Stanford Inst. for Theoretical Physics and Dept. of Physics; Leiden Univ. (Netherlands). Lorentz Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Roest, Diederik [Groningen Univ. (Netherlands). Van Swinderen Inst. for Particle Physics and Gravity; Westphal, Alexander [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Yamada, Yusuke [Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States). Stanford Inst. for Theoretical Physics and Dept. of Physics

2017-07-15

Fibre inflation is a specific string theory construction based on the Large Volume Scenario that produces an inflationary plateau. We outline its relation to α-attractor models for inflation, with the cosmological sector originating from certain string theory corrections leading to α=2 and α=1/2. Above a certain field range, the steepening effect of higher-order corrections leads first to the breakdown of single-field slow-roll and after that to the onset of 2-field dynamics: the overall volume of the extra dimensions starts to participate in the effective dynamics. Finally, we propose effective supergravity models of fibre inflation based on an D3 uplift term with a nilpotent superfield. Specific moduli dependent D3 induced geometries lead to cosmological fibre models but have in addition a de Sitter minimum exit. These supergravity models motivated by fibre inflation are relatively simple, stabilize the axions and disentangle the Hubble parameter from supersymmetry breaking.

Fibre inflation and α-attractors

Science.gov (United States)

Kallosh, Renata; Linde, Andrei; Roest, Diederik; Westphal, Alexander; Yamada, Yusuke

2018-02-01

Fibre inflation is a specific string theory construction based on the Large Volume Scenario that produces an inflationary plateau. We outline its relation to α-attractor models for inflation, with the cosmological sector originating from certain string theory corrections leading to α = 2 and α = 1/2. Above a certain field range, the steepening effect of higher-order corrections leads first to the breakdown of single-field slow-roll and after that to the onset of 2-field dynamics: the overall volume of the extra dimensions starts to participate in the effective dynamics. Finally, we propose effective supergravity models of fibre inflation based on an \\overline{D3} uplift term with a nilpotent superfield. Specific moduli dependent \\overline{D3} induced geometries lead to cosmological fibre models but have in addition a de Sitter minimum exit. These supergravity models motivated by fibre inflation are relatively simple, stabilize the axions and disentangle the Hubble parameter from supersymmetry breaking.

Ambiguities of fighting inflation: structure of alcohol fuel prices; Os equivocos do combate a inflacao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nastari, Plinio Mario [Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

1993-12-31

The control of consumer prices of alcohol fuel and gasoline has been used by the Brazilian government as a tool for fighting inflation. The production of alcohol fuel from biomass and the use of its by-products is one of the few strategies that will permit economic development and environmental preservation at the same time. While the pricing policy continues to determine the energy policy, it will be almost impossible to promote the production and the use of alcohol fuel in the country 8 figs.

New Old Inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dvali, Gia

2003-10-03

We propose a new class of inflationary solutions to the standard cosmological problems (horizon, flatness, monopole,...), based on a modification of old inflation. These models do not require a potential which satisfies the normal inflationary slow-roll conditions. Our universe arises from a single tunneling event as the inflaton leaves the false vacuum. Subsequent dynamics (arising from either the oscillations of the inflaton field or thermal effects) keep a second field trapped in a false minimum, resulting in an evanescent period of inflation (with roughly 50 e-foldings) inside the bubble. This easily allows the bubble to grow sufficiently large to contain our present horizon volume. Reheating is accomplished when the inflaton driving the last stage of inflation rolls down to the true vacuum, and adiabatic density perturbations arise from moduli-dependent Yukawa couplings of the inflaton to matter fields. Our scenario has several robust predictions, including virtual absence of gravity waves, a possible absence of tilt in scalar perturbations, and a higher degree of non-Gaussianity than other models. It also naturally incorporates a solution to the cosmological moduli problem.

Low-ℓ power suppression in punctuated inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qureshi, Mussadiq H.; Iqbal, Asif; Malik, Manzoor A.; Souradeep, Tarun

2017-01-01

Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole ℓ < 40, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of inflation potential is inspired by Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM) wherein suppression of curvature perturbation power at large scales is produced by introducing period of fast-roll phase of the inflation sandwiched between two stages of slow-roll phase. We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to determine posterior distribution and the best fit values of the model parameters using recent WMAP9 and Planck data. We show that WMAP9 and Planck results are consistent with each other and that with Planck data we obtain tighter constraints for punctuated inflation parameters. We find that punctuated inflation leads to better fit in CMB data compared to simple power law model. The improvement in the fit to the WMAP9 data is Δ χ 2 ∼ 3.6 and for Planck the improvement is Δ χ 2 ∼ 5.4. We find that AIC does not discriminate between punctuated inflation and simple power law model for WMAP9 data. However, for Planck data we find that punctuated inflation is moderately preferred over a simple power law model.

Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan; Marsh, M.C. David

2017-06-01

We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the 'transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of 'approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2-100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the 'generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.

Seven lessons from manyfield inflation in random potentials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dias, Mafalda; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Marsh, M.C. David [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Appllied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics

2017-06-15

We study inflation in models with many interacting fields subject to randomly generated scalar potentials. We use methods from non-equilibrium random matrix theory to construct the potentials and an adaption of the 'transport method' to evolve the two-point correlators during inflation. This construction allows, for the first time, for an explicit study of models with up to 100 interacting fields supporting a period of 'approximately saddle-point' inflation. We determine the statistical predictions for observables by generating over 30,000 models with 2-100 fields supporting at least 60 efolds of inflation. These studies lead us to seven lessons: i) Manyfield inflation is not single-field inflation, ii) The larger the number of fields, the simpler and sharper the predictions, iii) Planck compatibility is not rare, but future experiments may rule out this class of models, iv) The smoother the potentials, the sharper the predictions, v) Hyperparameters can transition from stiff to sloppy, vi) Despite tachyons, isocurvature can decay, vii) Eigenvalue repulsion drives the predictions. We conclude that many of the 'generic predictions' of single-field inflation can be emergent features of complex inflation models.

Does Education Corrupt? Theories of Grade Inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Oleinik, Anton

2009-01-01

Several theories of grade inflation are discussed in this review article. It is argued that grade inflation results from the substitution of criteria specific to the search for truth by criteria of quality control generated outside of academia. Particular mechanisms of the grade inflation that occurs when a university is transformed into a…

How do monetary policy tools work? An investigation on monetary transmission mechanism in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naser Ali Yadollahzadeh Tabari

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism includes some channels in which monetary policy influences on macroeconomic variables such as the output and inflation. In this study, the effect of monetary policy tools including interest rate, exchange rate and money supply on the variables of monetary policy targets including inflation and output is examined through VECM methodology over the period 1989:2-2007:2. Our findings show that in long-term, monetary supply is the most important variable influencing the price followed by the variables of output and exchange rate, respectively. Exogenous-being of interest rate indicates that this channel is underdeveloped and there is no monetary policy rule like Taylor rule in Iran's economy.

Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María de la O eGonzález

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S.

2016-01-01

We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation. PMID:27047418

Interest and Inflation Risk: Investor Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

González, María de la O; Jareño, Francisco; Skinner, Frank S

2016-01-01

We examine investor behavior under interest and inflation risk in different scenarios. To that end, we analyze the relation between stock returns and unexpected changes in nominal and real interest rates and inflation for the US stock market. This relation is examined in detail by breaking the results down from the US stock market level to sector, sub-sector, and to individual industries as the ability of different industries to absorb unexpected changes in interest rates and inflation can vary by industry and by contraction and expansion sub-periods. While most significant relations are conventionally negative, some are consistently positive. This suggests some relevant implications on investor behavior. Thus, investments in industries with this positive relation can form a safe haven from unexpected changes in real and nominal interest rates. Gold has an insignificant beta during recessionary conditions hinting that Gold can be a safe haven during recessions. However, Gold also has a consistent negative relation to unexpected changes in inflation thereby damaging the claim that Gold is a hedge against inflation.

CMB spectral distortion constraints on thermal inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, Kihyun; Stewart, Ewan D. [Department of Physics, KAIST, Daejeon 34141 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Sungwook E. [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Zoe, Heeseung, E-mail: cho_physics@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr, E-mail: jcap@profstewart.org, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr [School of Undergraduate Studies, College of Transdisciplinary Studies, Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST), Daegu 42988 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-08-01

Thermal inflation is a second epoch of exponential expansion at typical energy scales V {sup 1/4} ∼ 10{sup 6} {sup ∼} {sup 8} GeV. If the usual primordial inflation is followed by thermal inflation, the primordial power spectrum is only modestly redshifted on large scales, but strongly suppressed on scales smaller than the horizon size at the beginning of thermal inflation, k > k {sub b} = a {sub b} H {sub b}. We calculate the spectral distortion of the cosmic microwave background generated by the dissipation of acoustic waves in this context. For k {sub b} || 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1}, thermal inflation results in a large suppression of the μ-distortion amplitude, predicting that it falls well below the standard value of μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8}. Thus, future spectral distortion experiments, similar to PIXIE, can place new limits on the thermal inflation scenario, constraining k {sub b} ∼> 10{sup 3} Mpc{sup −1} if μ ≅ 2× 10{sup −8} were found.

Effects of thermal inflation on small scale density perturbations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Sungwook E. [School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study, 85 Hoegiro, Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Hyung-Joo; Lee, Young Jae; Stewart, Ewan D. [Department of Physics, KAIST, 291 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of); Zoe, Heeseung, E-mail: swhong@kias.re.kr, E-mail: ohsk111@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: noasac@kaist.ac.kr, E-mail: jcap@profstewart.org, E-mail: heezoe@dgist.ac.kr [School of Basic Science, Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology (DGIST), 333 Techno jungang-daero, Daegu 711-873 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-06-01

In cosmological scenarios with thermal inflation, extra eras of moduli matter domination, thermal inflation and flaton matter domination exist between primordial inflation and the radiation domination of Big Bang nucleosynthesis. During these eras, cosmological perturbations on small scales can enter and re-exit the horizon, modifying the power spectrum on those scales. The largest modified scale, k{sub b}, touches the horizon size when the expansion changes from deflation to inflation at the transition from moduli domination to thermal inflation. We analytically calculate the evolution of perturbations from moduli domination through thermal inflation and evaluate the curvature perturbation on the constant radiation density hypersurface at the end of thermal inflation to determine the late time curvature perturbation. Our resulting transfer function suppresses the power spectrum by a factor 0∼ 5 at k >> k{sub b}, with k{sub b} corresponding to anywhere from megaparsec to subparsec scales depending on the parameters of thermal inflation. Thus, thermal inflation might be constrained or detected by small scale observations such as CMB distortions or 21cm hydrogen line observations.

Higgs Inflation as a Mirage

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

After reviewing the nice properties of Higgs inflation and some of its problems, I will discuss a simple unitarization of the scenario that is genuinely weakly coupled up to Planckian energies. A large non-minimal coupling between the Higgs and the Ricci curvature is induced dynamically at intermediate energies, as a simple ratio of mass scales. Inflationary dynamics is not dominated by the Higgs field, but 'Higgs inflation' arises as an approximate 'mirage' picture of the true dynamics. I will speculate on the generality of this phenomenon and show that, if Higgs-inflation arises as an effective description, the details of the UV completion are necessary to extract robust quantitative predictions.

Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Glenn Research Center awarded Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts to ManTech SRS Technologies, of Newport Beach, California, to develop thin film inflatable antennas for space communication. With additional funding, SRS modified the concepts for ground-based inflatable antennas. GATR (Ground Antenna Transmit and Receive) Technologies, of Huntsville, Alabama, licensed the technology and refined it to become the world s first inflatable antenna certified by the Federal Communications Commission. Capable of providing Internet access, voice over Internet protocol, e-mail, video teleconferencing, broadcast television, and other high-bandwidth communications, the systems have provided communication during the wildfires in California, after Hurricane Katrina in Mississippi, and following the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Single-superfield helical-phase inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ketov, Sergei V., E-mail: ketov@tmu.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Minami-ohsawa 1-1, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192-0397 (Japan); Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (IPMU), The University of Tokyo, Chiba 277-8568 (Japan); Institute of Physics and Technology, Tomsk Polytechnic University, 30 Lenin Ave., Tomsk 634050 (Russian Federation); Terada, Takahiro, E-mail: takahiro@hep-th.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), 22607 Hamburg (Germany)

2016-01-10

Large-field inflation in supergravity requires the approximate global symmetry needed to protect flatness of the scalar potential. In helical-phase inflation, the U(1) symmetry of the Kähler potential is assumed, the phase part of the complex scalar of a chiral superfield plays the role of inflaton, and the radial part is strongly stabilized. The original model of helical phase inflation, proposed by Li, Li and Nanopoulos (LLN), employs an extra (stabilizer) superfield. We propose a more economical new class of the helical phase inflationary models without a stabilizer superfield. As the specific examples, the quadratic, the natural, and the Starobinsky-type inflationary models are studied in our approach.

Lags from Money to Inflation in a Monetary Integrated Economy: Evidence from the Extreme Case of Puerto Rico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos A. Rodríguez

2007-09-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the time-lenght of money growth's long and short run effect in affecting the rate of inflation in the context of an economy of extreme monetary integration. Money growth is measured as the rate of growth of Puerto Rico's consumer price index. By analyzing the case of Puerto Rico, we find that a dynamic expansion of money is reflected on prices immediately, but the unitary effect occurs approximately within ten quarters. In addition, the results show that local inflation is significantly influenced by its own past history and monetary policy, with the second having the greater effect.

Hybrid inflation in the complex plane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buchmueller, W.; Domcke, V.; Kamada, K.; Schmitz, K.

2014-04-01

Supersymmetric hybrid inflation is an exquisite framework to connect inflationary cosmology to particle physics at the scale of grand unification. Ending in a phase transition associated with spontaneous symmetry breaking, it can naturally explain the generation of entropy, matter and dark matter. Coupling F-term hybrid inflation to soft supersymmetry breaking distorts the rotational invariance in the complex inflaton plane - an important fact, which has been neglected in all previous studies. Based on the δN formalism, we analyze the cosmological perturbations for the first time in the full two-field model, also taking into account the fast-roll dynamics at and after the end of inflation. As a consequence of the two-field nature of hybrid inflation, the predictions for the primordial fluctuations depend not only on the parameters of the Lagrangian, but are eventually fixed by the choice of the inflationary trajectory. Recognizing hybrid inflation as a two-field model resolves two shortcomings often times attributed to it: The fine-tuning problem of the initial conditions is greatly relaxed and a spectral index in accordance with the PLANCK data can be achieved in a large part of the parameter space without the aid of supergravity corrections. Our analysis can be easily generalized to other (including large-field) scenarios of inflation in which soft supersymmetry breaking transforms an initially single-field model into a multi-field model.

Spatiotemporal Aeration and Lung Injury Patterns Are Influenced by the First Inflation Strategy at Birth.

Science.gov (United States)

Tingay, David G; Rajapaksa, Anushi; Zonneveld, C Elroy; Black, Don; Perkins, Elizabeth J; Adler, Andy; Grychtol, Bartłomiej; Lavizzari, Anna; Frerichs, Inéz; Zahra, Valerie A; Davis, Peter G

2016-02-01

Ineffective aeration during the first inflations at birth creates regional aeration and ventilation defects, initiating injurious pathways. This study aimed to compare a sustained first inflation at birth or dynamic end-expiratory supported recruitment during tidal inflations against ventilation without intentional recruitment on gas exchange, lung mechanics, spatiotemporal regional aeration and tidal ventilation, and regional lung injury in preterm lambs. Lambs (127 ± 2 d gestation), instrumented at birth, were ventilated for 60 minutes from birth with either lung-protective positive pressure ventilation (control) or as per control after either an initial 30 seconds of 40 cm H2O sustained inflation (SI) or an initial stepwise end-expiratory pressure recruitment maneuver during tidal inflations (duration 180 s; open lung ventilation [OLV]). At study completion, molecular markers of lung injury were analyzed. The initial use of an OLV maneuver, but not SI, at birth resulted in improved lung compliance, oxygenation, end-expiratory lung volume, and reduced ventilatory needs compared with control, persisting throughout the study. These changes were due to more uniform inter- and intrasubject gravity-dependent spatiotemporal patterns of aeration (measured using electrical impedance tomography). Spatial distribution of tidal ventilation was more stable after either recruitment maneuver. All strategies caused regional lung injury patterns that mirrored associated regional volume states. Irrespective of strategy, spatiotemporal volume loss was consistently associated with up-regulation of early growth response-1 expression. Our results show that mechanical and molecular consequences of lung aeration at birth are not simply related to rapidity of fluid clearance; they are also related to spatiotemporal pressure-volume interactions within the lung during inflation and deflation.

On the burst of branched polymer melts during inflation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Henrik K.; Yu, Kaijia

2008-01-01

Two molten low-density polyethylene melts, shaped as plates, have been inflated into a circular cylinder during isothermal conditions. Lowering the inflation rates allow the plates to be inflated into a larger volume of the cylinder before bursting. Numerical simulations of the inflations have been...

Delaying the waterfall transition in warm hybrid inflation

OpenAIRE

Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Metcalf, Thomas P.; Rosa, João G.

2014-01-01

We analyze the dynamics and observational predictions of supersymmetric hybrid inflation in the warm regime, where dissipative effects are mediated by the waterfall fields and their subsequent decay into light degrees of freedom. This produces a quasi-thermal radiation bath with a slowly-varying temperature during inflation and further damps the inflaton's motion, thus prolonging inflation. As in the standard supercooled scenario, inflation ends when the waterfall fields become tachyonic and ...

The role of unsteady effusion rates on inflation in long-lived lava flow fields

Science.gov (United States)

Rader, E.; Vanderkluysen, L.; Clarke, A.

2017-11-01

The emission of volcanic gases and particles can have global and lasting environmental effects, but their timing, tempo, and duration can be problematic to quantify for ancient eruptions where real-time measurements are absent. Lava flows, for example, may be long-lasting, and their impact is controlled by the rate, tempo, and vigor of effusion. These factors are currently difficult to derive from the geologic record but can have large implications for the atmospheric impact of an eruption. We conducted a set of analogue experiments on lava flow inflation aiming at connecting lava morphologies preserved in the rock record to eruption tempo and dynamics through pulsating effusion rates. Inflation, a process where molten material is injected beneath the crust of an active lava flow and lifts it upwards, is a common phenomenon in basaltic volcanic systems. This mechanism requires three components: a) a coherent, insulating crust; b) a wide-spread molten core; and c) pressure built up beneath the crust from a sustained supply of molten material. Inflation can result in a lava flow growing tens of meters thick, even in flow fields that expand hundreds of square kilometers. It has been documented that rapid effusion rates tend to create channels and tubes, isolating the active part of the flow from the stagnant part, while slow effusion rates may cause crust to form quickly and seize up, forcing lava to overtop the crust. However, the conditions that allow for inflation of large flow fields have not previously been evaluated in terms of effusion rate. By using PEG 600 wax and a programmable pump, we observe how, by pulsating effusion rate, inflation occurs even in very low viscosity basaltic eruptions. We show that observations from inflating Hawaiian lava flows correlate well with experimental data and indicate that instantaneous effusion rates may have been 3 times higher than average effusion rates during the emplacement of the 23 January 1988 flow at Kīlauea (Hawai

Theories of inflation and conformal transformations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalara, S.; Kaloper, N.; Olive, K.A.

1990-01-01

We show that several different theories of inflation including R 2 , Brans-Dicke, and induced-gravity inflation are all related to generalized or power-law inflation by means of conformal transformations. These theories all involve non-standard gravity, and the use of conformal transformations allows one to obtain standard inflationary predictions such as the expansion time-scale, reheating and density perturbations in each case very simply. We also discuss the possibilities of this method to be applied to string theory. (orig.)

When Parents’ Praise Inflates, Children's Self-Esteem Deflates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brummelman, Eddie; Nelemans, Stefanie A.; Thomaes, Sander; Orobio De Castro, Bram

2017-01-01

Western parents often give children overly positive, inflated praise. One perspective holds that inflated praise sets unattainable standards for children, eventually lowering children's self-esteem (self-deflation hypothesis). Another perspective holds that children internalize inflated praise to

MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

OpenAIRE

Mohamad Husam Helmi

2011-01-01

This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel) and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco). We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate ...

Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian; Dutta, Koushik

2011-02-01

Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the η-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)

A viable D-term hybrid inflation model

Science.gov (United States)

Kadota, Kenji; Kobayashi, Tatsuo; Sumita, Keigo

2017-11-01

We propose a new model of the D-term hybrid inflation in the framework of supergravity. Although our model introduces, analogously to the conventional D-term inflation, the inflaton and a pair of scalar fields charged under a U(1) gauge symmetry, we study the logarithmic and exponential dependence on the inflaton field, respectively, for the Kähler and superpotential. This results in a characteristic one-loop scalar potential consisting of linear and exponential terms, which realizes the small-field inflation dominated by the Fayet-Iliopoulos term. With the reasonable values for the coupling coefficients and, in particular, with the U(1) gauge coupling constant comparable to that of the Standard Model, our D-term inflation model can solve the notorious problems in the conventional D-term inflation, namely, the CMB constraints on the spectral index and the generation of cosmic strings.

Classical anisotropies in models of open inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garriga, J.; Mukhanov, V.F.

1997-01-01

In the simplest model of open inflation there are two inflaton fields decoupled from each other. One of them, the tunneling field, produces a first stage of inflation which prepares the ground for the nucleation of a highly symmetric bubble. The other, a free field, drives a second period of slow-roll inflation inside the bubble. However, the second field also evolves during the first stage of inflation, which to some extent breaks the needed symmetry. We show that this generates large supercurvature anisotropies which, together with the results of Tanaka and Sasaki, rule out this class of simple models (unless, of course, Ω 0 is sufficiently close to 1). The problem does not arise in modified models where the second field does not evolve in the first stage of inflation. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

Towards matter inflation in heterotic string theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Antusch, Stefan; Erdmenger, Johanna; Halter, Sebastian [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Muenchen (Germany); Dutta, Koushik [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

2011-02-15

Recently, a class of inflation models in supergravity with gauge non-singlet matter fields as the inflaton has been proposed. It is based on a 'tribrid' structure in the superpotential and on a 'Heisenberg symmetry' for solving the {eta}-problem. We suggest that a generalization of this model class may be suitable for realising inflation in heterotic orbifold compactifications, where the Heisenberg symmetry is a property of the tree-level Kaehler potential of untwisted matter fields. We discuss moduli stabilization in this setup and propose a mechanism to stabilize the modulus associated to the inflaton, which respects the symmetry in the large radius limit. Inflation ends via a waterfall phase transition, as in hybrid inflation. We give conditions which have to be satisfied for realising inflation along these lines in the matter sector of heterotic orbifolds. (orig.)

46 CFR 506.3 - Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. 506.3... PENALTY INFLATION ADJUSTMENT § 506.3 Civil monetary penalty inflation adjustment. The Commission shall... each civil monetary penalty provided by law within the jurisdiction of the Commission by the inflation...

Helical Phase Inflation and Monodromy in Supergravity Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tianjun Li

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We study helical phase inflation which realizes “monodromy inflation” in supergravity theory. In the model, inflation is driven by the phase component of a complex field whose potential possesses helicoid structure. We construct phase monodromy based on explicitly breaking global U(1 symmetry in the superpotential. By integrating out heavy fields, the phase monodromy from single complex scalar field is realized and the model fulfills natural inflation. The phase-axion alignment is achieved from explicitly symmetry breaking and gives super-Planckian phase decay constant. The F-term scalar potential provides strong field stabilization for all the scalars except inflaton, which is protected by the approximate global U(1 symmetry. Besides, we show that helical phase inflation can be naturally realized in no-scale supergravity with SU(2,1/SU(2×U(1 symmetry since the supergravity setup needed for phase monodromy is automatically provided in the no-scale Kähler potential. We also demonstrate that helical phase inflation can be reduced to another well-known supergravity inflation model with shift symmetry. Helical phase inflation is free from the UV-sensitivity problem although there is super-Planckian field excursion, and it suggests that inflation can be effectively studied based on supersymmetric field theory while a UV-completed framework is not prerequisite.

Low-ℓ power suppression in punctuated inflation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qureshi, Mussadiq H.; Iqbal, Asif; Malik, Manzoor A. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006 (India); Souradeep, Tarun, E-mail: mussadiqqureshi111@gmail.com, E-mail: asifiqbal@kashmiruniversity.net, E-mail: mmalik@kashmiruniversity.ac.in, E-mail: tarun@iucaa.in [Inter-University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Post Bag 4, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411007 (India)

2017-04-01

Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole ℓ < 40, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of inflation potential is inspired by Minimal Super-symmetric Standard Model (MSSM) wherein suppression of curvature perturbation power at large scales is produced by introducing period of fast-roll phase of the inflation sandwiched between two stages of slow-roll phase. We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to determine posterior distribution and the best fit values of the model parameters using recent WMAP9 and Planck data. We show that WMAP9 and Planck results are consistent with each other and that with Planck data we obtain tighter constraints for punctuated inflation parameters. We find that punctuated inflation leads to better fit in CMB data compared to simple power law model. The improvement in the fit to the WMAP9 data is Δ χ{sup 2} ∼ 3.6 and for Planck the improvement is Δ χ{sup 2} ∼ 5.4. We find that AIC does not discriminate between punctuated inflation and simple power law model for WMAP9 data. However, for Planck data we find that punctuated inflation is moderately preferred over a simple power law model.

Tight Money, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Edward F. Buffie

2003-01-01

The consequences of tight monetary policy are analyzed in an optimizing currency-substitution model of a small, open economy that operates under an open capital account and a flexible exchange rate. There is a reasonably good fit between the dynamics generated by the model and the stylized facts in the tight-money episodes that occurred in Kenya in 1993 and Nigeria in 1989-91. The study's results shed light on two issues: why tight money has provoked stupendous increases in inflation and the ...

Sneutrino warm inflation in the minimal supersymmetric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun

2005-01-01

The model of RH neutrino fields coupled to the MSSM is shown to yield a large parameter regime of warm inflation. In the strong dissipative regime, it is shown that inflation, driven by a single sneutrino field, occurs with all field amplitudes below the Planck scale. Analysis is also made of leptogenesis, neutrino mass generation and gravitino constraints. A new warm inflation scenario is purposed in which one scalar field drives a period of warm inflation and a second field drives a subsequent phase of reheating. Such a model is able to reduce the final temperature after inflation, thus helping to mitigate gravitino constraints

Inflation in a shear-or curvature-dominated universe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steigman, G.; Turner, M.S.

1983-01-01

We show that new inflation occurs even if the universe is shear-or (negative) curvature-dominated when the phase transition begins. In such situations the size of a causally coherent region, after inflation, is only slightly smaller (by powers, but not by exponential factors) than the usual result. The creation and evolution of density perturbations is unaffected. This result is marked contrast to 'old' inflation, where shear- or curvature-domination could quench inflation. (orig.)