Schatz, Samson J
False confessions happen. At least 245 people have been exonerated from convictions in cases featuring confessions that were simply not true. Confessions offer a narrative that allows law enforcement, and society in general, to neatly resolve cases with apparent clarity and closure. And yet the pressures officers place on suspects to provide that closure weigh disproportionately on the vulnerable, including individuals with intellectual disabilities. These individuals are disadvantaged at every step of the custodial interrogation, and they face heightened risks of falsely confessing. Moreover, the principal judicial safeguards against false confessions--assessing a suspect's Miranda waiver and determining whether a confession was voluntarily given within the bounds of the Fourteenth Amendment’s Due Process Clause--provide little protection for the innocent with intellectual disabilities. Few pieces of scholarship focus specifically on the heightened risks faced by individuals with intellectual disabilities throughout the process of police interrogation. This Note describes the various ways these individuals are disadvantaged. And it offers an additional data point illustrating the vulnerability of people with intellectual disabilities. This Note analyzes the 245 individuals (as of June 2, 2017) on the National Registry of Exonerations who have falsely confessed. Over one-quarter of them display indicia of intellectual disability. This percentage dwarfs the prevalence of people with intellectual disabilities in the general population and even exceeds most estimates of the proportion of the prison population suffering from intellectual disabilities. This Note concludes with several policy and doctrinal suggestions to better protect individuals with intellectual disabilities from the risks of false confession.
Leo, Richard A
In the past two decades, hundreds of convicted prisoners have been exonerated by DNA and non-DNA evidence, revealing that police-induced false confessions are a leading cause of wrongful conviction of the innocent. In this article, empirical research on the causes and correlates of false confessions is reviewed. After a description of the three sequential processes that are responsible for the elicitation of false confessions--misclassification, coercion, and contamination--the three psychologically distinct types of false confession (voluntary, compliant, and persuaded) are discussed along with the consequences of introducing false-confession evidence in the criminal justice system. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of empirical research for reducing the number of false confessions and improving the accuracy of confession evidence that is introduced against a defendant at trial.
Kassin, Saul M.
As illustrated by the story of Amanda Knox and many others wrongfully convicted, false confessions often trump factual innocence. Focusing on consequences, recent research suggests that confessions are powerfully persuasive as a matter of logic and common sense; that many false confessions contain richly detailed narratives and accurate crime…
Karen V. Lee
Full Text Available The author writes an autoethnography reflecting on the inherent complications of confessions. She reveals the irony of living in both a culture of disclosure and a culture of secrecy. Her assumptions of the perils and pitfalls of rendering intimate thoughts shift as she reflects upon her own confessions. The impact and insight from her writings become revolutionary as she moves inward and outward through interrogations of personal disclosure. In the end, autoethnography helps her gain a deeper understanding about the personal and cultural influences shaping her desire to confess. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs070163
Alvarez-Toro, Viviana; Lopez-Morales, Cesar A
Despite the existence of important safeguards in our criminal legal system, innocent suspects often succumb to forceful and deceptive interrogation techniques. Among those over-represented members of the false confessor population are minors, people with cognitive and intellectual disabilities, and those with psychiatric disorders. Some of the confessions made by these at-risk populations can hardly be considered voluntary or reliable, but they are generally admitted at trial, regardless of their prejudicial effect. Forensic psychiatrists should become more involved in the overall process of evaluating confessions, not only testifying in courts, but also assisting policymakers in reforming the interrogation process and influencing the legal process. Thus, forensic psychiatrists may give their expert opinion by providing proper training to police interrogators and examining videotaped interrogations. In addition, forensic experts can be instrumental in contributing to three legal solutions that we propose to the false confession problem: a constitutional approach, an evidence law approach, and a jury instruction approach. Each of these approaches requires forensic psychiatrists to help judges and jurors understand the coercive nature of the interrogation process and its effect on suspects' behavior. © 2018 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.
Weiss, Kenneth J
In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice.
Arndorfer, Andrea; Malloy, Lindsay C; Cauffman, Elizabeth
The potential consequences of interrogations and false confessions have been discussed primarily in terms of the risk for wrongful conviction, especially among adolescents and other vulnerable populations. However, it is possible that such experiences influence adolescents' perceptions of the legal system more generally. In the present study, we examined whether incarcerated male juvenile offenders' (n = 193) perceptions of police and the courts were related to their confession and interrogation experiences. High-pressure interrogation experiences and self-reported false confessions to police were associated with more negative perceptions of police. However, self-reported true confessions were not significantly associated with youths' perceptions of the police. Neither interrogation nor confession experiences (true or false) were related to youths' perceptions of the courts. Results provide additional support for policy reform of interrogation practices with young suspects. A more developmentally appropriate approach to criminal interrogations with youth may simultaneously improve police-youth relations and protect vulnerable suspects in the interrogation room. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
Bering, Jesse M.; Shackelford, Todd K.
This paper presents comments on Kassin's review, (see record 2005-03019-002) of the psychology of false confessions. The authors note that Kassin's review makes a compelling argument for the need for legal reform in police interrogation practices. Because his work strikes at the heart of the American criminal justice system--its fairness--the…
"Confessions" begins with an auto-ethnographic account of my learning-through-movement in a relationship that was intimate, therapeutic, embodied and instructive--with a teacher called Annie. It seems sensible to start with a choreographic teacher of Feldenkrais therapies and theatre-movement to think about the meanings I import from my roles as…
Henderson, Kelsey S; Levett, Lora M
Confession evidence can be extremely damaging in the courtroom; jurors are more willing to convict based on the presence of a confession than eyewitness evidence and character testimony (Kassin & Neumann, 1997). To date, no research has examined whether jurors notice variations in confession evidence based on whether the confession is consistent or inconsistent with the crime evidence (a likely low quality confession). In Study 1, mock jurors read a trial summary in which a suspect's confession was consistent or inconsistent with other case facts. Jurors were marginally more likely to convict if the confession and case facts were consistent than if they were not, but did not view the confession differently based on the consistency of the confession and case facts. In Study 2, we varied whether an expert testified about the consistency of the confession and case facts. Jurors who reported for jury duty did not render different trial decisions or view the confession differently based on the consistency of the confession and case facts or the presence of the expert testimony. We expanded the design in Study 3 to vary the content of the confession in addition to the case facts. Jurors used the consistency of the confession and case facts in making decisions, and expert testimony sensitized jurors to variations in the content of confession evidence on the verdict measure. Findings suggest jurors notice variations in confession evidence and expert testimony shows promise for educating jurors about characteristics of confessions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
E.G.C. Rassin (Eric); H. Israels (Han)
markdownabstract__Abstract__ Intuitively, confession is a strong piece of evidence, because it appears unlikely that a suspect would confess to a crime he did not commit, thereby acting against his own best interest. Surprisingly, experimental studies show that innocent and well-educated
Kassin, Saul M; Gudjonsson, Gisli H
the modern police interrogation, a guilt-presumptive process of social influence during which trained police use strong, psychologically oriented techniques involving isolation, confrontation, and minimization of blame to elicit confessions. Fourth, we examine the confession itself, discussing theoretical perspectives and research on why people confess during interrogation. In particular, we focus on the problem of false confessions and their corrupting influence in cases of wrongful convictions. We distinguish among voluntary, compliant, and internalized false confessions. We describe personal risk factors for susceptibility to false confessions, such as dispositional tendencies toward compliance and suggestibility, youth, mental retardation, and psychopathology. We then examine situational factors related to the processes of interrogation and show that three common interrogation tactics-isolation; the presentation of false incriminating evidence; and minimization, which implies leniency will follow-can substantially increase the risk that ordinary people will confess to crimes they did not commit, sometimes internalizing the belief in their own culpability. Fifth, we examine the consequences of confession evidence as evaluated by police and prosecutors, followed by judges and juries in court. Research shows that confession evidence is inherently prejudicial, that juries are influenced by confessions despite evidence of coercion and despite a lack of corroboration, and that the assumption that "I'd know a false confession if I saw one" is an unsubstantiated myth. Finally, we address the role of psychologists as expert witnesses and suggest a number of possible safeguards. In particular, we argue that there is a need to reform interrogation practices that increase the risk of false confessions and recommend a policy of mandatory videotaping of all interviews and interrogations. © 2004 Association for Psychological Science.
Beck Andreas J.
Full Text Available This paper discusses the complex relationship of Reformed confessions and Reformed orthodox scholasticism. It is argued that Reformed confessions differ in genre and method from Reformed scholastic works, although such differences between confessional and scholastic language should not be mistaken for representing different doctrines that are no longer in harmony with each other. What is more, it is precisely the scholastic background and training of the authors of such confessions that enabled them to place their confessional writings in the broader catholic tradition of the Christian church and to include patristic and medieval theological insights. Thus proper attention to their scholastic background helps to see that at least in some confessions the doctrine of predestination, for instance, is not as ‘rigid’ as one might think at first sight. In order to demonstrate that the doctrine of the Reformed confessions was much in line with the scholastic theology of Reformed orthodoxy, this paper discusses, after having explained the terms ‘Reformed orthodoxy’ and ‘scholasticism’, the early Reformed scholastic theologians Beza, Zanchi, and Ursinus, who also have written confessional texts. The paper also includes a more detailed discussion of the Belgic Confession and the scholastic background of the Canons of Dordt and the Westminster Confession, thereby focusing on the doctrines of God, providence, and predestination.
S. A. Strauss
Full Text Available Calvin's influence on the Belgic Confession is usually taken for granted. In this article this traditional view' is subjected to a critical study. Firstly a historical investigation is made of the possible biographic contact that John Calvin (1509-64 and Guido de Brés (1522-67 could have had. This investigation lead's to the conclusion that the latter was a close pupil of the former Calvin exercised influence on the Belgic Confession (1561 via the Confessio Gailicana (1559. When comparing the general theological content of the Belgic Confession with the Institutes of Calvin, significant similarities are found.
Lippert, Tonya; Cross, Theodore P; Jones, Lisa; Walsh, Wendy
Increasing the number of suspects who give true confessions of sexual abuse serves justice and reduces the burden of the criminal justice process on child victims. With data from four communities, this study examined confession rates and predictors of confession of child sexual abuse over the course of criminal investigations (final N = 282). Overall, 30% of suspects confessed partially or fully to the crime. This rate was consistent across the communities and is very similar to the rates of suspect confession of child sexual abuse found by previous research, although lower than that from a study focused on a community with a vigorous practice of polygraph testing. In a multivariate analysis, confession was more likely when suspects were younger and when more evidence of abuse was available, particularly child disclosure and corroborative evidence. These results suggest the difficulty of obtaining confession but also the value of methods that facilitate child disclosure and seek corroborative evidence, for increasing the odds of confession.
Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire
The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.
Gudjonsson, G H
This paper reviews the psychological factors that make some individuals susceptible to making a false confession of having committed a criminal offence. A number of 'vulnerability factors' are highlighted and it is emphasized that these need to be interpreted within the context of all circumstances surrounding the case.
Full Text Available This article provides a critical evaluation of the Accra Confession (WARC 2004. The misery in various regions of the southern hemisphere poses an extreme ethical challenge for the Christian faith; the outcry for justice should not be left unheeded. It is necessary that the causes of this misery should be clearly described before viable strategies for overcoming it can be developed. The Accra Confession seems to be rather one-dimensional in its evaluation of reality. The ethical charge implied by the term ‘confession’ is of little use when dealing with complex global fields of action that only rarely allow a simple equation of cause and reaction. It is not so much a ‘confession’ (or Bekenntnis that is needed but rather a renewed discussion among all concerned on the best ways to achieve more justice.
Najdowski, Cynthia J; Bottoms, Bette L; Vargas, Maria C
Understanding jurors' perceptions of juvenile defendants has become increasingly important as more and more juvenile cases are being tried in adult criminal court rather than family or juvenile court. Intellectual disability and child maltreatment are overrepresented among juvenile delinquents, and juveniles (particularly disabled juveniles) are at heightened risk for falsely confessing to crimes. In two mock trial experiments, we examined the effects of disability, abuse history, and confession evidence on jurors' perceptions of a juvenile defendant across several different crime scenarios. Abused juveniles were treated more leniently than nonabused juveniles only when the juvenile's crime was motivated by self-defense against the abuser. Jurors used disability as a mitigating factor, making more lenient judgments for a disabled than a nondisabled juvenile. Jurors also completely discounted a coerced confession for a disabled juvenile, but not for a nondisabled juvenile. In fact, compared with when it was portrayed as voluntary, jurors generally discounted a juvenile's coerced confession. Implications for public policy and directions for future research are discussed. (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Faller, Kathleen Coulborn; Birdsall, William Chalk; Henry, James; Vandervort, Frank; Silverschanz, Peregrine
Examines correlates of offender confession in criminal sexual conduct cases involving children. The following four variables are associated with suspect confession: (1) having the state police conducting the law enforcement part of the investigation, (2) more serious abuse, (3) younger age of the suspect, and (4) having a court appointed (as…
Madon, Stephanie; Guyll, Max; Scherr, Kyle C; Greathouse, Sarah; Wells, Gary L
Drawing on the psychological principle that proximal consequences influence behavior more strongly than distal consequences, the authors tested the hypothesis that criminal suspects exhibit a short-sightedness during police interrogation that increases their risk for confession. Consistent with this hypothesis, Experiment 1 showed that participants (N = 81) altered how frequently they admitted to criminal and unethical behaviors during an interview to avoid a proximal consequence even though doing so increased their risk of incurring a distal consequence. Experiment 2 (N = 143) yielded the same pattern, but with a procedure that reversed the order of the proximal and distal consequences, thereby ruling out the possibility that it was the unique characteristics of the consequences rather than their proximity that influenced the admission rate. The authors discuss the supported psychological process as a potential explanation for several well-established findings reported in the literature on confessions. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Full Text Available Drawing on a body of confession scholarship, “Ghostly Collaboration” defines “coercive ghostwriting,” an authorship-inspired term for collaborative practices enacted between custodial criminal suspects and professional police interrogators resulting in coerced, potentially false confession. Within the United States, still-prominent notions of a Romantically-influenced autonomous Author problematically intersect with public perception of collaborative texts; the coercive ghostwriting label is intended to draw explicit attention to co-authorship via coercive collaboration, hopefully contributing to the ongoing efforts of researchers working to challenge inaccurate views of false confessions.
Drawing on a body of confession scholarship, “Ghostly Collaboration” defines “coercive ghostwriting,” an authorship-inspired term for collaborative practices enacted between custodial criminal suspects and professional police interrogators resulting in coerced, potentially false confession. Within the United States, still-prominent notions of a Romantically-influenced autonomous Author problematically intersect with public perception of collaborative texts; the coercive ghostwriting label is ...
Greenspan, Rachel; Scurich, Nicholas
The current research investigated the mechanisms by which perceptions of confession evidence both influence and are influenced by perceptions of other case evidence using the theoretical framework of coherence-based reasoning (CBR). CBR posits that ambiguity and uncertainty are eschewed by artificially imposing consistency between pieces of evidence through bidirectional reasoning: Inferences about evidence lead to a preferred verdict, which in turn radiates backward to influence the perception of evidence. Two studies tested the CBR account with regard to confessions. An online sample of participants evaluated confession and nonconfession evidence at pretest and posttest. Study 1 revealed that, during pretest, participants (N = 119) deemed the evidence independent and nonprobative and the confession to be voluntary. However, at posttest, in the context of a criminal trial, participants considered the same evidence interrelated and highly inculpatory or exculpatory, depending on their verdict. Moreover, participants who voted to convict deemed the confession substantially voluntary, whereas participants who voted to acquit deemed it involuntary. Study 2 experimentally manipulated the strength of the nonconfession evidence in an effort to push participants (N = 127) toward a particular verdict. The same patterns of results emerged but were conditional on the strength of the nonconfession evidence: Strong case evidence caused the confession to be perceived as more voluntary, despite the fact that the confession was held constant. These findings replicate the coherence effect in a new domain and suggest that judges conducting harmless error analysis or making admissibility decisions might underappreciate the impact of confession evidence on jurors' verdicts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Full Text Available The essay explores the comical aspects of Behan’s autobiographical writings. It focuses on how humour, especially black humour, often flourishes wherever we find conflicts and contrasts. Humour is always born out of oppositions, and it can be argued that it always functions as an act of resistance to outside tragedy. Brendan Behan, a writer of slum and working class background, is one of the leading Irish prison writers. He is in many ways an exponent of an Irish republican tradition based on the idea of prison endurance. Given Behan’s notoriously flamboyant personality and his own talking gifts, it is not hard to imagine that the worst aspect of prison confinement might have been for him compulsory solitude and silence. His exuberant language and larger-than-life personality can be considered perhaps as a reaction to such partial deprivation of interpersonal relationships during his youth. In this context, where fictional and autobiographical truth are kept apart by an unstable divide increased by the abundance of comical interludes and jokes, the core of the essay analyses the second chapter of Confessions of an Irish Rebel in order to discuss the way in which Behan alternates funny accounts and tragedy in his own autobiographical reports.
Kassin, Saul M
Recent advances in DNA technology have shined a spotlight on thousands of innocent people wrongfully convicted for crimes they did not commit-many of whom had been induced to confess. The scientific study of false confessions, which helps to explain this phenomenon, has proved highly paradoxical. On the one hand, it is rooted in reliable core principles of psychology (e.g., research on reinforcement and decision-making, obedience to authority, and confirmation biases). On the other hand, false confessions are highly counterintuitive if not inconceivable to most people (e.g., as seen in actual trial outcomes as well as studies of jury decision making). This article describes both the psychology underlying false confessions and the psychology that predicts the counterintuitive nature of this same phenomenon. It then notes that precisely because they are so counterintuitive, false confessions are often "invisible," resulting in a form of inattentional blindness, and are slow to change in the face of contradiction, illustrating belief perseverance. This article concludes by suggesting ways in which psychologists can help to prevent future miscarriages of justice by advocating for reforms to policy and practice and helping to raise public awareness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Rondepierre, J J
With the support of two expert opinions drawn from his medico-legal practice, the author will examine the motives behind the retracted confessions of persons held for trial ou criminal charges. There are some false confessions, due to psychopathic problems, which, if detected in time, can prove the innocence of the person even before he is brought to trial. Some retractions are due to outside pressures but the most interesting are those of innocent people, and the motives for which the confession of a now existent crime has been obtained. The author will devote particular attention to the prudence necessary in questioning, and the reason why police interrogations, in France, are rightly limited to 48 hours. The particularly injurious effect of the lack of sleep in the course of these interrogations, will be emphasized.
Holmes, Dave; O'Byrne, Patrick
This paper explores the sexual health interview from a critical perspective, and to demonstrate how the confession ritual involved in this interview is implicated in the construction of subjectivities (meaning identities) as well as in fostering self-surveillance (self-regulation). The concept of public health depends primarily on several surveillance tools that monitor both the incidence and prevalence rates of certain diseases. Within the subgroup of infectious diseases, sexually transmitted infections comprise a group that is closely monitored. As a result, surveillance techniques, including policing sexual practices, are part of the public health worker's mandate. Using a Foucauldian perspective, we demonstrate that confession is a political technology in the sexual health domain. As one group of frontline workers in the field of sexual health, nurses are responsible for data collection through methods such as interviewing clients. Nurses play an integral role in the sexual health experience of clients as well as in the construction of the client's subjectivity. We strongly believe that a Foucauldian perspective could be useful in explaining certain current client behavioural trends (for example, an avoidance by at-risk groups of interactions with nurses in sexual health clinics) being observed in sexual health clinics across the Western hemisphere. Clinicians need to be aware of the confessional nature of their questions and provide requested services rather than impose services that they determine to be important and relevant. By appreciating that the sexual health interview is an invasive and embarrassing sexual confession, healthcare providers and policy-makers may be better able to design and implement more user-oriented, population-sensitive sexual health services.
STATEMENTS1. ABSTRACT. This essay offers a close comparative reading of the Belhar confession and the ... 4 For a definition and discussion of reception of church documents, read Naudé. & Smit 2000. For a case ..... theological and prophetic phase in the history of the Reformed churches in. SA, and hopefully further ...
This article argues that the scale and success of the PostSecret project evidences the continuing influence of confession in contemporary autobiography. It analyzes the importance of materiality as a signifier of authenticity in a participatory media project that functions as an intimate public by
Perillo, Jennifer T; Kassin, Saul M
Using a less deceptive variant of the false evidence ploy, interrogators often use the bluff tactic, whereby they pretend to have evidence to be tested without further claiming that it necessarily implicates the suspect. Three experiments were conducted to assess the impact of the bluff on confession rates. Using the Kassin and Kiechel (Psychol Sci 7:125-128, 1996) computer crash paradigm, Experiment 1 indicated that bluffing increases false confessions comparable to the effect produced by the presentation of false evidence. Experiment 2 replicated the bluff effect and provided self-reports indicating that innocent participants saw the bluff as a promise of future exoneration which, paradoxically, made it easier to confess. Using a variant of the Russano et al. (Psychol Sci 16:481-486, 2005) cheating paradigm, Experiment 3 replicated the bluff effect on innocent suspects once again, though a ceiling effect was obtained in the guilty condition. Results suggest that the phenomenology of innocence can lead innocents to confess even in response to relatively benign interrogation tactics.
This article places the Accra Confession, accepted at the 24th General Assembly of the World Alliance of Reformed Churches (WARC) (2004), within the historical context of the WARC's struggle for economic justice in the face of globalisation. It moves beyond addressing such issues merely as ethical issues to rather ...
Kassin, S M; Neumann, K
In Arizona v. Fulminante (1991), a U.S. Supreme Court majority stated that confessions are similar to, not fundamentally different from, other types of evidence. To evaluate this claim, three mock juror studies compared the impact of confessions to other common forms of evidence. In Experiment 1, participants read summaries of four criminal trials (murder, rape, assault, theft), each of which contained a confession, an eyewitness identification, character testimony, or none of the above. Significantly, the confessions produced the highest conviction rates. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants read a murder or assault trial containing all three types of evidence and made a series of midtrial judgments. Results indicated that the confession was seen as the most incriminating, followed by the eyewitness and character testimony. Although the comparisons we made are limited in certain respects, our findings suggest that confessions are uniquely potent.
Sigurdsson, J F; Gudjonsson, G H
This study investigates the effects of alcohol, drug intoxication and withdrawal symptoms on the mental state of criminal suspects and the nature of their confession. A total of 359 sentenced prisoners were approached on admission and 96% agreed to participate in the study. They completed a specially designed Confession Questionnaire, which asked them questions about their reasons for confessing to the police, their attitude towards their confession, their mental state at the time of the confession and the extent to which they had been under the influence of alcohol and drug intoxication at the time of crime and police interview. The confession rate for the sample was very high (92%), with serious traffic violators having the highest confession rate (95%) and sex offenders the lowest (83%). The findings illustrate that the "perception of proof", "internal need to confess" and "external pressure" are the main reasons why suspects confess. However, subjects were identified who had experienced a typical "prisoner's dilemma" phenomenon during the police interview because of a co-defendant. Alcohol and drug intoxication was very commonly reported both at the time of the offence and the police interview, but these were related to the nature of their offence. Although intoxication and withdrawal symptoms did not appear to seriously impair their coping during the police interview it was consistently reported as having made them confused.
In this paper, drawing on the work of Michel Foucault, I argue that academics are enmeshed in power relations in which confession operates, both "on" and "through" academics. Drawing on Foucault's genealogy of confession, I illustrate how academics are not only invited to reflect on performance, faults, temptations and desires…
Flaherty, Emalee G.
Objective: We hypothesize that perpetrators of abuse include elements of truth in their initial history and that an analysis of perpetrator confessions can teach professionals how to identify these initial truths. Methods: The information from a consecutive sample of perpetrators' confessions concerning 41 children hospitalized because of injuries…
An explanation for this is then sought with reference to the very conception of theology in the Reformed tradition (Willie Jonker); the spiritual power of the church to declare doctrine (John Calvin), and the relative authority of the confessions themselves (Karl Barth). It is concluded that new confessions will continue to emerge ...
Denis Vladimirovich Vasil'ev
Full Text Available The article deals with the meaning of a penitential confession in Fyodor Dostoyevsky's novel The Brothers Karamazov. It is noted that the penitential confession in the novel exempts from the burden of guilt, allowing the confessor to get rid of spiritual suff erings through the compassion of the person who accepts the confession and shares the guilt with the sinner. It is emphasized that repentance is inseparably linked with overcoming the sense of shame before public exposure and self-obsession with one’s reputation. The attention is paid to mutual confessions in the novel aft er which the heroes step on the path towards transformation. It is concluded that penitential confessions of heroes result in their revival and spiritual renewal, as each of them is given a chance to endure spiritual revolution, to overcome the "hell" and to confirm the validity of Zosima’s idea about common guilt and responsibility.
Gudjonsson, G H
This study looks at the reasons offenders give for having confessed during police interrogation. A number of hypotheses were tested, following the work of Gudjonsson and Petursson (1991) on an Icelandic prison sample. The subjects were 80 offenders who were serving prison sentences in Northern Ireland for violence, sex or property offences. The subjects completed the Gudjonsson Confession Questionnaire. All of the hypotheses tested were supported, indicating that there are three primary factors associated with the reasons why criminals make confessions during interrogation. These factors are referred to as Internal Pressure, External Pressure and Proof. The factors were found to be associated with the type of offence committed and the attitude of the offender towards his confession.
Johannes van Oort
Full Text Available The article first sketches some main trends in the recent study of Augustine’s Confessions as a work aimed at Manichaean readers. It then detects and analyses the Manichaean-inspired parts in Book X of the Confessions. Augustine’s famous theory of memory seems to be directly inspired by Manichaean concepts such as found in the Coptic Manichaean Kephalaia. The article end with a number of conclusions.
Full Text Available When we undertake academic, disciplinary work, we rely on philosophical starting points. Several straightforward illustrations of this can be found in the history of applied linguistics. It is evident from the history of our field that various historically influential approaches to our discipline base themselves upon different academic confessions. This paper examines the effects of basing our applied linguistic work on the idea that applied linguistics is a discipline concerned with design. Such a characterisation does justice to both modernist and postmodernist emphases in applied linguistics. Conceptualisations of applied linguistics that came with the proposals for communicative language teaching (CLT some thirty to forty years ago propelled the discipline squarely into postmodern times. To account for this, we need to develop a theory of applied linguistics which shows what constitutive and regulative conditions exist for doing applied linguistic designs. A responsible agenda for applied linguistics today has as its first responsibility to free the users of its designs from toil and drudgery, as well as from becoming victims of fashion, ideology or theory. Secondly, it should design solutions to language problems in such a way that the technical imagination of the designer is not restricted but supported by theory and empirical investigation, and that the productive pedagogical fantasy of the implementers of such plans is set free. Thirdly, it must seek to become accountable by designing theoretically and socially defensible solutions to language problems, solutions that relieve some of the suffering, pain, poverty and injustice in our world.
Lyon, Thomas D; Wandrey, Lindsay; Ahern, Elizabeth; Licht, Robyn; Sim, Megan P Y; Quas, Jodi A
This study tested the effects of narrative practice rapport building (asking open-ended questions about a neutral event) and a putative confession (telling the child an adult "told me everything that happened and he wants you to tell the truth") on 4- to 9-year-old maltreated and nonmaltreated children's reports of an interaction with a stranger who asked them to keep toy breakage a secret (n = 264). Only one third of children who received no interview manipulations disclosed breakage; in response to a putative confession, one half disclosed. Narrative practice rapport building did not affect the likelihood of disclosure. Maltreated children and nonmaltreated children responded similarly to the manipulations. Neither narrative practice rapport building nor a putative confession increased false reports. © 2014 The Authors. Child Development © 2014 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.
Madon, Stephanie; Yang, Yueran; Smalarz, Laura; Guyll, Max; Scherr, Kyle C
Suspects have a preexisting vulnerability to make short-sighted confession decisions, giving disproportionate weight to proximal, rather than distal, consequences. The findings of the current research provided evidence that this preexisting vulnerability is exacerbated by factors that are associated with the immediate interrogation situation. In Experiment 1 (N = 118), a lengthy interview exacerbated participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when deciding whether or not to admit to criminal and unethical behaviors. This effect was especially pronounced among less serious behaviors. In Experiment 2 (N = 177), participants' tendency to temporally discount a distal consequence when making admission decisions was exacerbated by the expectation of a lengthy interview; an effect that became stronger the longer the interview continued. These findings suggest that conditions of the immediate interrogation situation may capitalize on an already-present vulnerability among suspects to make short-sighted confession decisions, thereby increasing the chances that even innocent suspects might confess.
This article commences with the observation – drawn from a number of standard collections – that a multiplicity of confessions is a particular trait of the Reformed tradition. An explanation for this is then sought with reference to the very conception of theology in the Reformed tradition (Willie Jonker); the spiritual power of the ...
Gleaves, John; Christiansen, Ask Vest
Researching the world of doping can often feel like work as an undertaker: when business is good, it’s usually bad for someone else. And these past few months have been especially good for business. Confessions from high profile cyclists, including Lance Armstrong and a number of high profile...
Faller, Kathleen Coulborn; Birdsall, William C.; Vandervort, Frank; Henry, James
Objective: To determine significant predictors of severity of sentencing of sex offenders of minors in a jurisdiction which obtains many confessions. Method: Data were abstracted from 323 criminal court case records of sexually abused minors over 11 years in a county which places a high priority on sexual abuse prosecution. The sample used in this…
Ratcliff, Jennifer J.; Lassiter, G. Daniel; Schmidt, Heather C.; Snyder, Celeste J.
The camera perspective from which a criminal confession is videotaped influences later assessments of its voluntariness and the suspect's guilt. Previous research has suggested that this camera perspective bias is rooted in perceptual rather than conceptual processes, but these data are strictly correlational. In 3 experiments, the authors…
Des procès impliquant des ecclésiastiques, dans des affaires de ont attiré l’attention du sur pédophilie par exemple, public le statut du secret dans l’Église, et plus particulièrement du secret de la confession. Le principe de celui-ci est clair et simple : un prêtre, quelle que soit la situation dans laquelle le met un aveu, reçu pendant une “confession sacramentelle”, de la part d’un pécheur, voire d’un criminel, et quelle que soit la nature de cet aveu, ne peut en aucune circonstance répé...
Full Text Available When St. Bonaventure University decided to redesign its core curriculum, we turned to Bonaventure’s account of the mind’s journey to God in the Itinerarium Mentis in Deum as a paradigm by which to give coherence to the undergraduate experience consistent with our mission and tradition. Bonaventure was himself an Augustinian philosopher and thus Augustine’s Confessions holds a place of great significance in our first year seminar where it is studied in conjunction with Bonaventure’s inward turn to find God imprinted on his soul. This paper is an account of the original rationale for including Augustine’s Confessions in our curriculum and a report of continuing faculty and student attitudes towards that text nearly two decades later.
Aoki, Keiko; Akai, Kenju; Onoshiro, Kenta
This study investigated lying behavior and the behavior of people who are deceived by using a deception game (Gneezy, 2005) in both anonymity and face-to-face treatments. Subjects consist of students and non-students (citizens) to investigate whether lying behavior is depended on socioeconomic backgrounds. To explore how liars feel about lying, we give senders a chance to confess their behaviors to their counter partner for the guilty aversion of lying. The following results are obtained: i) ...
Suzuki, Shinichi; Higashikawa, Yoshiyasu; Sugita, Ritsuko; Suzuki, Yasuhiro
In one particular criminal case involving murder and theft, the arrested suspect admitted to the theft, but denied responsibility for the murder of the inhabitant of the crime scene. In his confession, the suspect stated that he found the victim's body when he broke into the crime scene to commit theft. For this report, the actual crime scene was reconstructed in accordance with the confession obtained during the interrogation of the suspect, and suspect behavior was simulated in accord to the suspect confession. The number of characteristic fibers retrieved from the simulated crime scene was compared with those of retrieved from the actual crime scene. By comparing the distribution and number of characteristic fibers collected in the simulation experiments and the actual investigation, the reliability of the suspect's confession was evaluated. The characteristic dark yellowish-green woolen fibers of the garment that the suspect wore when he entered the crime scene were selected as the target fiber in the reconstruction. The experimental simulations were conducted four times. The distributed target fibers were retrieved using the same type of adhesive tape and the same protocol by the same police officers who conducted the retrieval of the fibers at the actual crime scene. The fibers were identified both through morphological observation and by color comparisons of their ultaviolet-visible transmittance spectra measured with a microspectrophotometer. The fibers collected with the adhesive tape were counted for each area to compare with those collected in the actual crime scene investigation. The numbers of fibers found at each area of the body, mattress and blankets were compared between the simulated experiments and the actual investigation, and a significant difference was found. In particular, the numbers of fibers found near the victim's head were significantly different. As a result, the suspect's confession was not considered to be reliable, as a stronger
Hui, Cora Y T; Lo, T Wing
Over-reliance on confession has had a long history in the Chinese criminal justice system. Recent high-profile wrongful conviction cases have raised public awareness of the coercive and torturous methods used to extract confessions. Despite the return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty, Hong Kong remains a common law jurisdiction and the most serious criminal offences are tried by a jury. The present study empirically examines the relative impact of DNA evidence, confession, eyewitness testimony, and victim testimony in a Hong Kong-Chinese mock juror sample. The results show that the participants placed greater value on DNA evidence than on confession, and placed the lowest value on testimonial evidence. It is argued that the situation of "one country, two cultures" remains strong: Whereas participants are still influenced by the Chinese criminal justice concept of confession, their judgment is still predominately influenced by the scientific evidence as commonly practiced in the West. Thus, no solid evidence has been found to confirm the emergence of mainlandization in Hong Kong's criminal justice system. © The Author(s) 2014.
Ritter, Kristina; Zitterl, Werner; Stompe, Thomas
National suicide rates differ remarkably. The influence of religion on the frequency of suicides was already stressed by Durkheim, however, character and dimension of this influence are still unclear. Our study claims to assess the association between (a) the distribution of believers of different religions, (b) the secularization, (c) the religiousness and the national suicide rates by gender. Data of the distribution of religious confessions and of the religiousness of the inhabitants of the single countries were correlated with the national suicide rates and illustrated by means of Scatter/Dot-Plots. Independent of gender, low suicide rates were found in Islamic countries. Buddhist countries showed high suicide rates in women, and countries with a high percentage of inhabitants without confession high suicide rates in men. Only catholic countries showed an association between secularisation and suicide rates. In countries with a high proportion of religious inhabitants we found low suicide rates. Although none of the World religions support the human right of suicide, the mosaic religions of resurrection refuse suicide more strictly than the Eastern religions of reincarnation. All in all our study supports the hypothesis that religiousness can be seen as a protective factor against suicide.
Viljoen, Jodi L; Klaver, Jessica; Roesch, Ronald
While there is an increasing recognition that developmental differences may exist in legal decision-making, little research has examined this. This study examined the legal judgments of 152 defendants aged 11-17 (73 females, 79 males). Adolescents aged 15 and younger were more likely than older adolescents to confess and waive their right to counsel, and less likely to report that they would appeal their case or discuss disagreements with their attorneys. Also, while adolescents aged 15-17 were more likely to confess, plead guilty, and accept a plea bargain if they perceived that there was strong evidence against them, younger defendants' legal decisions were not predicted by the strength of evidence. Importantly, defendants with poor legal abilities were more likely to waive legal protections, such as the right to counsel and to appeal. Defendants from below-average socioeconomic backgrounds were more likely to waive their interrogation rights, and defendants from ethnic minority groups were less likely to report that they would disclose information to their attorneys. The advice of attorneys, parents, and peers emerged as important predictors of plea decisions. None of the defendants reported that their parents advised them to assert the right to silence during police interrogation.
Miranda, Marcelo; Williams, Anne-Marie; Garcia-Borreguero, Diego
Thomas de Quincey, a British writer of 19th century, suffered insomnia from the age of 17 years. In his famous "Confessions of an English-Opium Eater" (1822), he described a symptomatology that could concord with restless legs syndrome long before he became addicted to opium. In this report, we analyze his clinical description and the circumstances leading to his opium addiction.
The origins of confessional handbooks or penitentials can be traced back to the seventh century, when Irish and Anglo-Saxon authors composed lists of sins and their corresponding penances. These texts were to be used by priests in order to enjoin a suitable penance on confessants. The penitential
This paper is a written rendering of a plenary address delivered at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the American Folklore Society. Drawing on materials from his forthcoming book Confessions of a Wannabe, the author provides a personal account of the deeply emotional sense of responsibility, obligation, and reciprocity involved in long-term ethnographic research among Native American communities, particularly the Omaha and Pawnee tribes of Nebraska. The author details the ways in which personal relations with the people and communities he has observed have shaped his personal and professional life, and he calls into question the ideal of purportedly neutral or distanced ethnography. Details are provided of the author's experiences in converting his farm into an appropriate reburial site for repatriated Pawnee remains recovered under the aegis of the Native American Graves Repatriation and Protection Act (NAGPRA).
Weiss, Kenneth J; Watson, Clarence; Xuan, Yan
The landmark case Frye v. United States is associated with the general-acceptance standard for admissibility of scientific evidence. The standard, still the law in some jurisdictions, has largely been replaced by one based on Federal Rule of Evidence 702. Although it is known from the 1923 Frye opinion's terse wording that the science in question was a systolic blood pressure deception test, the facts behind the case and the story of the device's inventor are rarely discussed. In this article we review the story of the defendant, James Alphonso Frye, and the psychologist, William Moulton Marston, who claimed he could prove that Frye had confessed falsely. The case continues to reverberate whenever scientific evidence makes a claim of finding the truth. © 2014 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.
Yang, Yueran; Madon, Stephanie; Guyll, Max
Suspects have a propensity to focus on short-term contingencies, giving disproportionate weight to the proximal consequences that are delivered by police during an interrogation, and too little consideration to the distal (and often more severe) consequences that may be levied by the judicial system if they are convicted. In this research, the authors examined whether the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of distal consequences contribute to this propensity. Using the repetitive question paradigm (Madon et al., 2012), participants (N = 209) were interviewed about 20 prior criminal and unethical behaviors and were required to admit or deny each one. Participants' denials and admissions were paired with both a proximal consequence and a distal consequence, respectively. Results indicated that the distal consequence had less impact on participants' admission decisions when it was uncertain and temporally remote. These results provide evidence that the perceived uncertainty and temporal distance of future punishment are key factors that lead suspects to confess to crimes in exchange for short-term gains.
Татьянин, Д.; Закирова, Л.
В статье рассматриваются вопросы, связанные с реализацией тайны исповеди священ. нослужителями в уголовном процессе. Обосновывается целесообразность предоставления свя. щеннослужителю права отказа от свидетельского иммунитета.The author examined the questions, connected with the implimentation of the seal of confession by clergymen in the criminal process. The expediency of assignment of the right of resignation of the witness immunity to the clergyman is explained....
Maeder, Evelyn M; Pica, Emily
The goal of this research was to determine whether the size of the incentive (none, small, medium, or large, in terms of sentence reduction) a jailhouse informant receives for testifying, as well as scientific expert testimony regarding the fundamental attribution error, would influence mock juror decision-making in a criminal trial involving a secondary confession. Participants read a murder trial transcript involving informant testimony in which incentive size and expert testimony were manipulated and then provided verdict judgments, made attributions for the informant's decision to testify, and rated the informant and expert on a number of dimensions. Neither expert testimony nor size of incentive had a direct influence on verdicts. However, contrary to previous research on the influence of incentives on jurors' perceptions of secondary confessions, the presence of an incentive did influence verdict decisions, informant ratings, and attributional responses. Results imply that jury-eligible community members may be becoming aware of the issues with informant testimony as a function of incentive but that they are insensitive to the size of the incentive, and expert testimony may not sensitize them to the limitations of such testimony. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.
S. V. Sannіkov
Full Text Available Purpose. Via the life example of a great Christian hermit Augustine of Hippo and his «Confessions», the author of the essay considers the existential choice problem, which changes man’s course of life and displays its essence. Analyzing and deconstructing Augustine's self-reflection against the background of the texts by two other great Africans (A. Camou and J. Darrida, the article traces the foundations and main stages of the process of self-seeking in people who want to find themselves in a lost world. The purpose of the article is to analyze the intellectual, emotional and spiritual components of the process of taking epochal-making decisions versus the approaches of A. Camus and J. Derrida, prominent Augustine’s fellow countrymen, born in Algeria as well. Methodology. The research is based on the comparative historical analysis, allowing to identify and summarize some principles for the decision-making of the most important existential solutions. The use of comparative procedures made possible to show the ineffectiveness of self-contained Camus' and Darrida’s existential searches, and at the same time, demonstrate the success of finding selfhood and self-knowledge by Augustine, who was open for the gift descending from Above. The use of other general scientific methods, such as analysis, reduction, generalization, and retrospective method allowed the researcher to highlight some epistemological problems manifested in understanding and searching the Truth, as the most important and often unconscious human need. Augustine's openness to accepting Truth from Above and at the same time understanding the inability to seize it independently distinguishes him from similar searches of Jacques Darrida. Originality. The research has shown that the existential choice, which in contrast to ordinary choices, changes a man’s life and renders meaning to his existence, is made not with a volitional decision, but with a hardly explicable encounter
O'Connell, Noel Patrick
This ethnographic study examines deaf people's experience of the Roman Catholic Sacrament of Confession in two Catholic schools for deaf children in the Republic of Ireland from 1950 to 1990. The article fills a gap in Catholic deaf education literature that fails to uncover the experiences of deaf children. It provides space for their storied…
Full Text Available This paper discusses two novels The Private Memoirs and Confessions of a Justified Sinner and The Scarlet Letter written by James Hogg and Nathaniel Hawthorn from the perspective of Jacques Lacan theories: the mirror stage, the-name-of-the-father and desire. The mirror stage refers to historical value and an essential libidinal relationship with the body-image. The-name-of-the-father is defined as the prohibitive role of the father as the one who lays down the incest taboo in the Oedipus complex. Meanwhile, desire is neither the appetite for satisfaction, nor the demand for love, but the difference that results from the subtraction of the first from the second.
PhD. Bugiulescu Marin
Full Text Available This articles presents the Sacrament of Confession and the effects that it has both on the ecclesial community in general and for each believer in particular. The role of the Sacrament of Confession is: the elimination, cleansing and expiation of sins. The pages of Scripture we have revealed that the most important part of repentance is regaining the harice state before sin. The inner transformation of man through repentance is extremely important;God urges man to reject sin and return to Truth. All along the Scripture, repentance was presented and understood as the highest virtue, not only because it is a virtue in itself but because it creates a state of inner tension that continuously urges man to return to God
The book on ''Confession statement against the nuclear nation'' discusses the conflicts of the protestant church in Germany concerning nuclear energy in 1970 - 1990. The introduction covers the state of research and the historical sources. The following chapters discuss the issues philosophic-ideological fundamentals: atomic energy and theology, the political church, the new protest culture and comparative perspectives: the catholic perspective, Three Mile Island's shadow.
Intérpretes e confessionários como expressões de políticas linguísticas da Igreja voltadas à confissão Interpreters and confessionaries as expressions of linguistic policy of the Church related to confession
Full Text Available O objetivo do trabalho foi analisar a política linguística da Igreja em relação à confissão em contexto multilíngue entre os séculos XVI e XVIII. As fontes documentais utilizadas na análise foram as discussões teológicas europeias a respeito da legitimidade (ou não do intérprete nesse contexto religioso e os confessionários em línguas indígenas produzidos pela evangelização espanhola e portuguesa. Os confessionários nas línguas indígenas foram observados pelas marcas gráficas usadas para guiar o missionário no diálogo com o penitente. A forma de organização dos confessionários nas línguas indígenas foi a de um gênero textual voltado para o aprendizado de língua estrangeira. Em particular, foram comparadas as posições dos jesuítas no Brasil em relação ao intérprete em duas conjunturas, antes e depois da fixação de um confessionário tupi. Na conclusão, foram observadas as adaptações que a discussão europeia a respeito do intérprete recebeu na evangelização dos índios.The aim of this study was to analyse the linguistic policy of the Church with regard to confession in a multilingual context between the 16th and 18th Centuries. The documents used in the analysis included theological discussions in Europe about the legitimacy (or not of the interpreter in this religious context, as well as confessionaries in indian languages during the evangelisation period carried out by the Spanish and the Portuguese. The confessions in indian languages were examined through their use of orientation signals used to guide the missionary in the dialogue with the penitent. The form of organization of the confessionaries in the Indian languages was a textual genre appropriate for learning a foreign language. In particular, we have compared the position of the Jesuits concerning the interpreter in two settings: before and after the establishment of a confessionary in Tupi. In conclusion, we examine the adaptations in the
Paulo Gustavo Rodrigues
Full Text Available This article intends to analyze the problem of the truth in criminal procedure, especially in the context of the elements of judicial convincing. From a bibliographic review, we intend to discuss the status of the search for the truth in criminal procedure, as a mean to demystify the high probative value that was always assigned to criminal confessions, especially based on the rejection of negotiability of factual premises. Furthermore, we will analyze in which way awarded incrimination pervert the functions of criminal procedure as it stands as an agreement of a standard of factual acceptability that ignores the search of the truth as an ethical fundament of the criminal persecution.
Michelle A. Reyes
Full Text Available This article examines how Unger’s Confessions of a Beautiful Soul written by Herself creates a new model of moral acquisition. This model finds its place between religious morality and moral performance, calling for the novel’s protagonist, Mirabella, to cultivate a moral self through the spiritual practice of reading. Such a model still revolves around moral transformation, but it is no longer of her soul, but rather her thoughts; that is, Mirabella must first collect various depictions of morality from a wide scope of literature, then choose from these which ones she deems as of greatest importance to her, namely virginity and the control of the passions, and then apply these two concepts in great measure to her self. The proof of her successful cultivation is then evident in her physiognomy. This model is as new as it is radical; first, it provides an alternative to Goethe’s model in his fictional autobiography, Confessions of a Beautiful Soul; second, it contains implications for Mirabella in terms of both gender and class; finally, it allows for a new form of moral authenticity during a time of growing artifice in late eighteenth-century Germany. Foucault’s notions of self-cultivation in The Care of the Self, as well as the commentaries on physiognomy advanced in the works of Lavater and Winckelmann, provide the interpretive lens for this new model.
Full Text Available This article explores the pedagogic value of the Confession of Belhar within a practical theology narrative framework as a potential therapeutic practice for racial (pre- and post-1994 traumatic experiences. Recurring and hidden occurrences of oppression, injustice, inferiority and disunity engender psycho-social dysfunctionality in church and society (De Beer & Van Niekerk 2009:50-52. The deconstruction of structuralist hegemonic paradigms will be undertaken. Secondly, a contextual analysis of liberating poststructuralist paradigm/s serves as foundation for the article. Thirdly, the appropriation of narrative pedagogical maps is explored. Fourthly, different narrative maps within a pedagogical framework are applied to illuminate two (Koopman 2008; Strauss 2005 opposing narratives. Finally, suggestions are provided of how narrative pedagogy could be applied to address pre- and post-1994 conditions of oppression, injustice and disunity. The Confession is proposed as a narrative pedagogical model in addressing ecclesial and psycho-social dysfunctionalities. The objective is to explore how racial trauma and hegemonic conditions can be addressed and transformed into alternative living possibilities, respectively.
Shirley Dias Gonçalves
Full Text Available Este trabalho é baseado numa pesquisa realizada em um hospital público, especializado em cirurgia bariátrica na cidade de Fortaleza- CE e teve como objetivo investigar os discursos que circulam no grupo terapêutico realizado com pacientes diagnosticados obesos e como esses pacientes são subjetivados por esses discursos. A metodologia utilizada foi a observação participante do referido grupo composto por pacientes de ambos os sexos que estavam na fase pré e pós-operatória. Foram analisados dois dispositivos presentes no controle da obesidade: a biopolítica e a confissão. A cirurgia bariátrica funciona como uma estratégia biopolítica que incide sobre o corpo de uma população obesa e a confissão atua como tecnologia de si. Assim, esse trabalho buscou problematizar como o corpo obeso é demarcado por práticas de saber-poder que o constituem. Também se tratou de analisar as resistências ao discurso médico-científico sobre saúde, beleza e boa forma dos corpos.This work focuses on a research conducted in a Brazilian community hospital specialized in bariatric surgery (in Fortaleza, state of Ceará with the aim of analyzing therapy group discussions with obese patients and how the patients are subjected by these discussions. The research used participant observation methodology. The group was composed of both male and female patients in the pre- and post-operative periods. Two obesity control devices were analyzed: biopolitics and confession. Bariatric surgery acts as a biopolitical strategy on the obese population body, and confession works as a technology of the self. Therefore, this work questioned how knowledge-power practices determine an obese body. Additionally, the research analyzed the resistance to medical-scientific discussions regarding body health, beauty and fitness.
This paper reviews the Tchernobyl accident history until the explosion and gives briefly the main radiological consequences for the Tchernobyl region. Tchernobyl will be a real in-situ laboratory for many studies. From Vienne meeting, 13 recommendations will be proposed at the IAEA extraordinary general meeting in september 1986 [fr
Nadler, David A
Advising CEOs sounds like a dream job, but doing so can be perplexing and perilous. At times, the questions you must ask yourself-about your own motivations and loyalty-can be thornier than the organizational problems that clients face. David Nadler knows, because he has been asking himself such questions for a quarter century while advising the chiefs of more than two dozen corporations. If you're an adviser to CEOs, recognizing the pitfalls of your role may help you sidestep them. And understanding a problem's nuances and implications may help you uncover a solution. The challenges facing consultants include the following: The loyalty dilemma: Is my ultimate responsibility to the CEO, who pays for my services, or to the institution, which pays for his? Today's shorter CEO tenures and greater board oversight have diminished the top leader's power and autonomy; it's now routine for a CEO adviser to have conversations with directors about the CEO's performance. To defuse loyalty issues, the adviser should raise them with the executive at the outset of the relationship. The overidentification dilemma: How do I immerse myself in the CEO's worldview without making it my own? CEOs can be enormously persuasive, but if you don't push back, you're not doing your job. The trick is to ask probing questions without shaking the CEO's confidence that you fully comprehend the forces that shape her views. The friendship dilemma: If the CEO and I like each other, can we-should we-become friends? A successful, long-term advisory relationship with a CEO requires a strong personal connection; in some cases, that becomes a friendship. But the best relationships are characterized by the participants' clear-eyed recognition of each other's frailties-tempered, of course, by genuine affection and easy rapport.
Hauer, Donna M.
The author, formerly a co-leader of Nexus, a program that focused on the interconnectedness of different types of oppression, relates her personal experience on forming "first impressions." Participation in this program was open to students interested in the issues of diversity and was strictly voluntary and cocurricular. The program was bringing…
After becoming a podcasting convert, the author talked with other students at colleges and universities across North America about their iPod and MP3 use, their familiarity with podcasting, and how they see podcasting as part of the classroom. As more and more colleges and universities jump on board the podcasting bandwagon, it's vital that…
Full Text Available Academic plagiarism exists in all academic spheres, but contextual factors determine the level, intensity, and forms of it. Over the last few years, the phenomenon of “Ghost Authorship” has become widespread in Iran, and concerns have been expressed regarding this issue, not only by academicians but also by officials. In this study, 143 students participated in a two-step interview study in which they spoke about their experiences on either seeing a ghost author doing the research of someone else in exchange of money or they themselves being a ghost author. In all, 29 students said that they had done it once or so. The in-depth interviews with these 29 students showed how the plagiarism industry works in Iran, who the customers are, how they find each other, and so on.
''Confession statement against the nuclear nation''. The protestant church in Germany and the conflicts concerning nuclear energy 1970 - 1990; ''Bekennen gegen den Atomstaat''. Die evangelischen Kirchen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und die Konflikte um die Atomenergie 1970-1990
Schuering, Michael [Florida Univ., Gainesville, FL (United States)
The book on ''Confession statement against the nuclear nation'' discusses the conflicts of the protestant church in Germany concerning nuclear energy in 1970 - 1990. The introduction covers the state of research and the historical sources. The following chapters discuss the issues philosophic-ideological fundamentals: atomic energy and theology, the political church, the new protest culture and comparative perspectives: the catholic perspective, Three Mile Island's shadow.
Manuel González Rincón
Full Text Available Este artículo intenta sacar a la luz una de las críticas anticlericales que, en nuestra opinión, subyacen en el fondo de algunas referencias y alusiones indirectas en el texto del Apókopos de Bergadís: el delito de solicitación, o incitación a los fieles (en este caso a las viudas a actos lujuriosos durante la confesión por parte de los sacerdotes, probablemente frailes franciscanos. Para ello nos basamos en los estudios de los documentos conservados de los procesos que el Tribunal de la Inquisición española abrió contra estos delitos durante los siglos XVII y XVIII, dado que la solicitación parece haber sido un comportamiento heredado y endémico desde la época medieval.This article tries to elucídate one of the anticlerical critiques that seem to be latent behind certain allusions and indirect insinuations in Bergadís' Apókopos: the offence of solicitation, that is, of drawing the faithful (in this case the widows into acts of lust during the confession by the priests, probably Franciscan friars. To do this, I rely mainly on the scholarly studies in the preserved documents in the prosecutions of these offences by the Tribunal of the Spanish Inquisition during the 17* and 18* centuries, considering that solicitation seems to have been an inherited and endemic behaviour since medieval times.
I. Introduction The main objective of this paper is to argue that Augustine's analysis of the concept of memory and self-deception in Confessions, Book X, would greatly benefit from the hierarchical argumentative and explanatory schema he himself employs to discuss the relation between the senses, the inner sense, and reason in perception. First I present a brief overview of Augustine's account of memory in the Confessions. Then I discuss two argumentative and explanatory schemata Augustine often employs in order to explain mental phenomena; the first one has to do with finding analogies between the human mind and the Holy Trinity (for man is supposed to be created as an image of God), and the second one has to do with distinguishing normative levels between mental faculties. I then argue that both of these schemata can be fruitfully applied to the several functions of the mind that can be found in Augustine's account of memory; and while he does apply the first explanatory schema to the concept of memory in a later work (On the Trinity) he does not do the same with the second one. I argue also that Augustine's discussion of self-deception (also found in Confessions X) would benefit too from the distinction between different normative levels within the functions of memory. Finally, I answer two possible objections to the idea of applying the hierarchical normative-explanatory schema to the Augustinian analysis of memory and the ethics of self-deception. II. Augustine's search for God in the memory Augustine's inquiry on memory in Confessions X, is guided by a more fundamental question, one about the nature of the search for God. The question Augustine poses is: "What do I love when I love you [my God]?" (Confessions X.6) This question leads Augustine to think that if he truly loves God, as he believes he does, then he must be able to recognize within himself a true image of God. Augustine describes the progress of his search for God. He writes he has searched for
Roberto Parra Dorantes
The main objective of this paper is to argue that Augustine’s analysis of the concept of memory in Confessions, Book X, would greatly benefit from the hierarchical argumentative and explanatory schema he himself employs in other works to discuss the relation between the senses, the inner sense, and reason in perception. A brief overview of Augustine’s account of memory in the Confessions is presented, followed by a discussion of two argumentative and explanatory schemata Augustine often emplo...
This essay examines the possibilities of being/becoming an ethical researcher in the academy. It tackles this task through the lens of an ethics application by Mary [pseudonym], a PhD student in sociology whose research thesis was investigating the reasons why married men with children use prostitutes. Two analyses are offered of Mary's story. The…
Dahlstedt, Magnus; Fejes, Andreas
Today, there is a widespread idea that parents need to learn how to carry out their roles as parents. Practices of parental learning operate throughout society. This article deals with one particular practice of parental learning, namely nanny TV, and the way in which ideal parents are constructed through such programmes. The point of departure is…
H. Schmittdiel (Heiner)
textabstractWhen people or organizations engage in voluntary exchange, it is crucial how much information either side of a deal disposes of. The common theme in the chapters of this book is asymmetric information, which can create an imbalance of power between the two parties involved in a
Full Text Available Mathematics look different on a small 3-inch screen of an inexpensive cell phone when compared to a 3-meter whiteboard in a mathematics classroom. Dr Math uses cell phone or mobile data "chat" technologies to assist primary and secondary school...
Langer, Howard J.
Political reporter Theodore H. White discusses American politics in this interview. Issues examined include racism, one-term presidencies, how what liberals have done in the past 30 years has created a nation of dependents, the primary system, election polls, and what young people should be taught about American history and politics. (RM)
-. Nuremberg, Germany. He is participating as research fellow of Prof. Dr Johan. Buitendag, Dean of the. Faculty of Theology of the. University of Pretoria, South. Africa. This article represents a reworked version of a.
Few projects are completed on time, on budget, and to their original requirement or specifications. Focusing on what project managers need to know about risk in the pursuit of delivering projects, Risk Management covers key components of the risk management process and the software development process, as well as best practices for risk identification, risk planning, and risk analysis. The book examines risk planning, risk analysis responses to risk, the tracking and modelling of risks, intel...
Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.
The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)
Breytenbach was now one of the respected international voices on the political crisis in South Africa. The violent break-up of apartheid had changed Breytenbach's social criticism. In the place of the earlier rejection and denunciation had come a willingness to engage and reason with his audience. The Dakar conference of ...
Rasberry, Catherine N.
As a college health educator, the author knows much about healthy behaviors. In spite of this, however, the author discusses finding herself struggling with the same problems of body image that her students express. With a variety of influences tied to negative body image, it is important that college health professionals create a plan of action…
Kevin M. Kniffin
Full Text Available Post hoc analyses of Rector v. Arkansas have regularly highlighted that the defendant requested that part of his last meal be saved so that he could it eat later. While the observation is typically raised as part of arguments that Rector was incompetent and unfit for execution, the more basic fact is that commentators have drawn important inferences about Rector’s mental state from how he treated his last meal. In this essay, we draw upon multiple disciplines in order to apply the same inferential logic to a much broader sample and explore the question of whether traditionally customized last meals might offer signals of defendants’ guilt or innocence. To investigate this, the content of last-meal requests and last words reported for people executed in the United States during a recent five-year period were examined. Consistent with the idea that declination of the last meal is equivalent to a signal of (self-perceived innocence, those who denied guilt were 2.7 times as likely to decline a last meal than people who admitted guilt (29% versus 8%. Consistent with the complementary theory that people who admit guilt are relatively more “at peace” with their sentence, these individuals requested 34% more calories of food than the rest of the sample (2786 versus 2085 calories. A third finding is that those who denied guilt also tended to eat significantly fewer brand-name food items. Previous discussions of last meals have often lacked quantitative measurements; however, this systematic analysis shows that last meal requests offer windows into self-perceived or self-proclaimed innocence. Knowing one’s last meal request and one’s last words can provide valuable new variables for retrospectively assessing the processes that led to past executions.
Full Text Available Much criticism about Dostoevsky’s Crime and Punishment has focused on the variety and ambivalence of Raskolnikov’s motives for committing the crime or transgression of the title. Sergei Hackel, in his article “Raskolnikov through the Looking-Glass: Dostoevsky and Camus’s L’Etranger”, sums up the various motives that have been discussed in relation to Raskolnikov’s crime as follows: In fact, it is the multiplicity of possible motives that makes Raskolnikov so convincing a presence. Was he seeking money to help his family? Or simply seeking money? Was he putting his concept of the Napoleonic superman to the test? Or killing to relieve the tension created by introspection in his claustrophobic room? Was he mentally or physically ill? Tempted by Satan? Was he expressing his resentment against society? Or attempting to bridge the gulf between society and himself by attracting the former's attention? Or by killing, and thus utterly possessing, one of society's representatives? Or seeking punishment to allay some subconscious guilt? Indulging a will to suffer? (196
Asher, R. J.; Sterken, C.
The author says in the prologue of this book: "I want to chart a course through the false notion that evolution rules out religious belief". That is exactly what he does, in twelve well-documented and well-written chapters. The author's viewpoint is that science (evolutionary science in particular) and religion occupy non-overlapping domains, and are basically compatible with one another in the sense that they deal with fundamentally different questions. He also describes in detail what he means by the phrase "materialist orientation of modern science". This book recounts discoveries in molecular biology and paleontology, nevertheless it contains several useful lessons for anyone active in the earth and space sciences. For example, that long periods of equilibrium can be disrupted by what appear sudden episodes of change: this issue is a fact that is well known to variable-star observers, even more so in any research that relates to period changes. Another useful field to learn from by analogy is classification of whatever kind of phenomenon, or the non-randomness of some mechanisms (like evolution by natural selection). Not to forget that cosmology - just like evolutionary biology - took centuries to emancipate from its misappropriated religious implications. The author describes that there are two factors that contributed to the modern revolution in the utility of molecular data for genetics: improvements in laboratory techniques, and the Open-Access DNA databases that are fed by compulsory submission of every DNA sequence that has been used for a paper in a scientific journal. Improvement of observational techniques, and free access to (virtual-)observatory databases are exactly what drives progress in astronomy, though compulsory publication of data is still wanting. Not to speak of an important lesson: since we do not know in advance which data the future will need in particular investigations, "the process of adding more data is iterative, not circular". This is the best response to the endless mantra of "too many data" that I ever read. The last chapter offers some interesting thoughts about academic freedom and the fact that science is not a democratic endeavor. Together with the author's credo acknowledging that his religious belief is non-scientific, though entirely rational: his evolutionist views as a paleontologist, and his evangelical convictions seem to be entirely reconcilable. This book is extremely well documented (more than 580 notes covering almost 40 pages), with numerous references and internet resources that are very up to date. The illustrations (gray scale photographic reproductions) are all of good quality and of appropriate image resolution, and the data tables are rich and well formatted. Asher's language is clear and direct, nevertheless the work is at times somewhat difficult to follow for an uninitiated like myself. The book's target audience obviously is the community of evolutionary biologists and paleontologist, but it also serves the wider community of natural scientists, and very well suites the generalist history of science reader.
Trinh, Xuan Thuan
Que nous dit vraiment la science sur la nature de l'univers, sur son origine et son avenir ? Par quel mystère le langage mathématique, pure création de l'esprit humain, se révèle-t-il aussi performant pour nous décrire les phénomènes physiques, de l'infiniment petit à l'infiniment grand ? S'il existe un ordre du monde, ce que nous en disent la physique quantique et la théorie de la relativité est-il compatible avec ce qu'enseigne le bouddhisme ? Et que peut-on en conclure concernant notre propre vie ? A ces questions passionnantes et à beaucoup d'autres, le célèbre astrophysicien Trinh Xuan Thuan répond ici d'une façon personnelle, en s'appuyant sur son expérience. Son itinéraire l'a placé d'emblée à la confluence de trois cultures : issu d'une famille de lettrés vietnamiens imprégnée de traditions bouddhiste et confucéenne, il a reçu une éducation à la française puis une formation scientifique à l'américaine. Une telle richesse de points de vue lui permet d'apporter, non pas de...
Flores, Fabrizio; Wyrick, Gabrielle; Zwicky, Calder
As a companion to more data-driven articles and studies that consider the long-term impact of art museum teen programs on alumni, this article takes the form of a person to person interview with two founding teen members of important programs that emerged in the 1990s. Talking candidly about the impact of their program participation, Calder Zwicky…
Full Text Available Conversazione con Angelo Liberati è un intervista rilasciata a chi scrive presso lo studio dell'artista, nel quartiere di Castello a Cagliari. In questo luogo evocativo, che tanto ha in comune con le sue opere per la ricchezza che lo contraddistingue, Liberati si è consegnato ad una chiacchierata a cuore aperto, quasi un flusso di coscienza, la 'confessione' di un 'realista' emerso dalla generazione pop. Una lettura consapevole e sincera della sua vita e delle sue opere, che si è rivelata una testimonianza viva, vibrante e partecipe degli anni della sua infanzia e della sua giovinezza, della scoperta dell’arte e dell’incontro con i suoi maestri, delle sue riflessioni e dei suoi ricordi sul mondo artistico a lui contemporaneo, della sua fascinazione per il mondo del cinema, ma anche di una lucida analisi della sua carriera artistica e di quelle difficoltà materiali e pratiche della vita del pittore nel mondo contemporaneo. Come per le sue opere in cui allestisce tutte le sue memorie, dalle ruminazioni colte ai ricordi personali e quotidiani, anche in questa 'confessione' occorre provare a ristabilire i nessi, ricongiungere passi lontani, che tuttavia si integrano, e catturare, pur nel frammento, qualcosa di profondo e di imprescindibile per leggere e comprendere la ricca produzione dell'artista.
Hjelm, E. J.
Whether self-selected or chosen through a competitive process, teachers who seek out research experiences are at or near the top of their profession and often well trained in science. We incorporate our research experiences into our classrooms. We tinker and refine. We become TRE experts in our own right. How do we continue to grow and share this expertise? TRE veterans are an untapped resource. I provide a first hand, teacher account of the years after the TRE. My first was the 2005 ERESE Teacher Research Experience in Plate Tectonics at SIO. I brought an M.S. in Geology, field and middle school teaching experience, a passion for teaching geoscience, and a desire to inspire the next generation of geoscientists. I left committed to finding authentic ways for my students to conduct inquiry-based geoscience. Geoscience is taught in middle school. That's where the pipeline begins. One "real" geoscience experience in those middle years can inspire the best and the brightest to pursue geoscience careers. At SIO I embraced the idea that meaningful science involves asking and answering your own questions. My sixth grade students use NOAA OceanExplorer websites to explore subduction zones and seafloor vents. They ask and then answer their own questions. Each student communicates her results in a classroom scientific meeting. In 2006, I presented my students' work at AGU Fall Meeting. Next, I believed my students would benefit from contact with a scientist at their scientific meeting, so in 2007 we co-hosted, with Dartmouth College, a MARGINS Distinguished Lecturer. I was using NOAA websites, so in 2008 I was a NOAA Teacher at Sea in AK. My TAS experience resulted in a MARGINS minilesson that enables students to use GeoMapApp to explore and compare volcanic and glacial features on Aleutian islands and surrounding seafloor http://serc.carleton.edu/margins/minilessons/32005.html. In 2009, with an interest in visualizations and volcanoes, and a letter of support from a PI, I joined a three year NSF funded project - Collaborative Research: An integrated seismic-geodetic study of active magmatic processes at Sierra Negra volcano, Galapagos Islands, http://sierranegragalapagos.blogspot.com. In 2010, with the help of Stanford researchers, I used NSF funding, gelatin and water balloons to build a model 8th grade Algebra students can use to physically and mathematically demonstrate the process of inverting geodetic data to image the magma chamber of a volcano. And, in 2011, a SCEC intern is using seismic data from Sierra Negra to build a visualization for students of the volcano's magma chamber and its changes over time. As a direct result of my first TRE, my students answer their own questions about seafloor vents, explore volcanoes through mathematical and physical modeling, collaborate with students, teachers and researchers, and for field experience, through a Toyota Tapestry Grant they conduct seasonal plot studies with Stanford student mentors at Stanford's Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. Based on my experiences the "rest of the story" is more interesting than a report on the first TRE. TRE veterans have insights to share.
Smoll, Tracy L.
A step-by-step self-portrait lesson helped students with their listening skills, following directions, expanding their art vocabulary, and using a variety of art media and techniques. This article describes a simple lesson that enabled a teacher to have an excellent relationship with her first grade students. The teacher who wrote this article…
Higher education is in a transformational period, and this author believes that information technology will play a central role in this transformation, offering unimaginable opportunities and demanding unforeseen responses. She also believes that IT professionals can and should be at the core of envisioning and shaping the future of colleges and…
The historical context of writing in which this Catechism is sketched, its use in Geneva is described, and the outline of the Catechism is mentioned. The article continues to discuss why Calvin thought there was a need for a catechism, and why he wrote it in Latin and sent it to East Friesland. In conclusion the author explains ...
Correa Lizarazu, X.
The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile
ten Kate, Leo P.
In this paper I will review different aspects of genetic risk in the context of preconception care. I restrict myself to the knowledge of risk which is relevant for care and/or enables reproductive choice. The paper deals with chromosomes, genes and the genetic classification of diseases, and it explains why Mendelian disorders frequently do not show the expected pattern of occurrence in families. Factors that amplify genetic risk are also discussed. Of the two methods of genetic risk assessm...
Klinke, A.; Renn, O.
The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)
Klinke, A.; Renn, O. [Center of Technology Assessment in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Stuttgart (Germany)
The empirical part about the technological risks deals with different technologies: nuclear energy, early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons, and electromagnetic fields. The potential of damage, the contemporary management strategies and the relevant characteristics will be described for each technology: risks of nuclear energy; risks of early warning systems of nuclear weapons and NBC-weapons; risks of electromagnetic fields. (authors)
Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.
The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)
Chambers, David W
Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.
Dennery, M.; Dupont, M.A.
This article deals with the development of risk management in the gas sector business: why a risk factor legal mention must precede any published financial information? Do gas companies have to face new risks? Is there specific risks bound to gas activities? Why companies want to master their risks? Is it mandatory or just a new habit? Do they expect a real benefit in return? These are the risk management questions that are analyzed in this article which is based on the public communication of 15 gas companies randomly selected over the world. The information comes from their annual reports or from documents available on their web sites. The intention of this document is not to be exhaustive or to make statistics but only to shade light on the risk factors of the gas sector. (J.S.)
Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter
International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107......). All patients were assessed for risk of future violence utilizing a structured professional judgment model: the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) violence risk assessment scheme. After a follow-up period of 5.6 years, recidivism outcome were obtained from the Danish National Crime...... Register. Overall, the predictive validity of the HCR-20 was good. The structured final risk judgment had the highest predictive accuracy of violent recidivism and was superior to the HCR-20 used in an actuarial manner. At the individual item level, a higher number of the dynamic items were significantly...
After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)
... have been shown to reduce the risk of breast cancer in women at high risk. SERMS may cause side effects , such as hot flashes , so they are not often used for prevention of cancer. See the PDQ summary on Breast Cancer Prevention for more information. Finasteride has been ...
ten Kate, L.P.
In this paper I will review different aspects of genetic risk in the context of preconception care. I restrict myself to the knowledge of risk which is relevant for care and/or enables reproductive choice. The paper deals with chromosomes, genes and the genetic classification of diseases, and it
There is always a risk of an accident occurring at a nuclear power plant, however small. The problem lies in estimating the probability of it occurring. The method of probabilistic safety assessment provides this estimate, and by identifying the sources of potential risk, makes it possible to prevent them from occurring. It is not, however, a substitute for other decision-making processes. (author)
Full Text Available I entered the science field because I imagined that scientists were society's “professional risk takers”, that they like surfing out on the edge. I understood that a lot of science – perhaps even most science – has to be a solid exploration of partly understood phenomena. But any science that confronts a difficult problem has to start with risk. Most people are at least a bit suspicious of risk, and scientists such as myself are no exception. Recently, risk-taking has been under attack financially, but this Editorial is not about that. I am writing about the long view and the messages we send to our trainees. I am Senior Associate Dean of the graduate school at Mount Sinai and have had the privilege to discuss these issues with the next generation of scientists, for whom I care very deeply. Are we preparing you to embrace risk?
The title of our session, Nuclear Risk Versus Other Power Options, is provocative. It is also a title with different meanings to different people. To the utility chief executive officer, nuclear power is a high-risk financial undertaking because of political and economic barriers to cost recovery. To the utility dispatcher, it is a high-risk future power source since plant completion and start-up dates can be delayed for very long times due to uncertain legal and political issues. To the environmentalist, concerned about global effects such as greenhouse and acid rain, nuclear power is a relatively low risk energy source. To the financial people, nuclear power is a cash cow turned sour because of uncertainties as to what new plants will cost and whether they will even be allowed to operate. The statistics on risk are known and the results of probability risk assessment calculations of risks are known. The challenge is not to make nuclear power safer, it is already one of the safest, if not the safest, source of power currently available. The challenge is to find a way to communicate this to the public
This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.
This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.
Rubanzana, Wilson; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L; Ntaganira, Joseph; Freeman, Michael D
A population-based case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between genocide exposure and homicide perpetration in Rwanda. A sample of 150 homicide perpetrators who were charged with and confessed to having committed homicide between 1 May 2011 and 31 May 2013 and 450 controls were enrolled. Cases were matched to controls by neighborhood, age and sex. Socio-demographic, background and genocide-related information was collected from study subjects' next of kin. Four characteristics of genocide exposure were: genocide survivor, genocide perpetrator, having lost a first-degree relative to genocide and having a first-degree relative convicted of genocide. We assessed the impact of each genocide-exposure variable using conditional logistic regression. Of the 150 cases, 124 (82.7%) were male and 26 (17.3%) were female. The mean age of the alleged homicide perpetrators was 33 years, with a peak in the age group 20-29 years (39.3%). After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and past common criminal records, having a first-degree relative who had been convicted of genocide crimes was a significant predictor for homicide perpetration (odds ratio [OR] = 14.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-129.4). Being a genocide perpetrator, a genocide survivor and having lost a first-degree family member to genocide were not identified as risk factors for homicide perpetration. In Rwanda, young people who experienced early exposure to trauma by witnessing their first-degree relatives' active participation in the genocide, are more likely to commit homicide. Socio-economic and psychotherapeutic programs targeting this population group are needed to rehabilitate these young people for violent behavior change. © The Author(s) 2015.
Alaranta, Maria Eliisa; Mathiassen, Lars
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...
Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.
This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es
This article discusses ways to reduce the economic risk of independent energy projects. The topics of the article include risk categorization into areas of property, boiler and machinery, business income, and general liability, choosing a broker, choosing an insurer, and helping an insurer develop the best portfolio for the project. The author feels that attention to the guidelines for the right insurance coverage is as vital to a plant's economic stability as attention to the details of the blueprints is to its physical stability
ing the residual risk of transmission of HIV by blood transfusion. An epidemiological approach assumed that all HIV infections detected serologically in first-time donors were pre-existing or prevalent infections, and that all infections detected in repeat blood donors were new or incident infections. During 1986 - 1987,0,012%.
Wirtanen, Gun Linnea; Salo, Satu
This chapter on biofilm risks deals with biofilm formation of pathogenic microbes, sampling and detection methods, biofilm removal, and prevention of biofilm formation. Several common pathogens produce sticky and/or slimy structures in which the cells are embedded, that is, biofilms, on various s...
Needs Met and Verified 3. Interface Completion Trends 4. Staffing Skills and Trend 5. Risk Burndown 6. Technical Performance Measure ( TPM ) Trends...measured by the Technical Performance Measures ( TPM ) for the Technical Performance Parameters (TPP). Cost and schedule are measured with the Earned...Value Management (EVM) system. The TPP and TPM are formulated for the particular program, and are derived from the major system performance
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think....... By doing so, we will obtain a deeper insight into how events involving large values of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are likely to occur....
Nygaard, Lene; Rossen, Camilla Blach; Buus, Niels
This study explored how eight pregnant women diagnosed with depression managed the decision whether or not to take antidepressants during pregnancy. In total, 11 interviews were conducted and analysed by means of constructivist grounded theory. The major category constructed was Balancing risk......, with two minor categories: Assessing depression and antidepressants and Evaluating the impact of significant others. The participants tried to make the safest decision, taking all aspects of their life into consideration. They described successful decision-making in the context of managing social norms...
Full Text Available “What is complicated is not necessarily insightful and what is insightful is not necessarily complicated: Risks welcomes simple manuscripts that contribute with insight, outlook, understanding and overview”—a quote from the first editorial of this journal . Good articles are not characterized by their level of complication but by their level of imagination, innovation, and power of penetration. Creativity sessions and innovative tasks are most elegant and powerful when they are delicately simple. This is why the articles you most remember are not the complicated ones that you struggled to digest, but the simpler ones you enjoyed swallowing.
This book is a clear, practical, and balanced view of toxicology and risk management. The introduction argues the case for risks assessment and outlines the benefits and problems associated with chemical exposure. The first part of the book covers the basic science and the sources of human exposure to chemicals. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion are covered in some detail. The subsequent chapter gives a lively discussion of toxicity studies and then describes slow and fast poisons. The author gives the arguments for as well as against animal testing. There is much public bewilderment caused by reports of cancer-causing pesticides in apple juice and poisons emanating from nearby hazardous waste sites. The author believes that too much has been written in an attempt to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence, and corruption. This book is less of a polemic, and more of a clear, unbiased clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate
Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno
The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...
The three principles to guide regulating authorities are: Risks shall be managed to maximize the total expected net benefit to society; The safety benefit to be promoted is quality-adjusted life expectancy; Decisions for the public in regard to health and safety must be open and apply across the entire range of hazards to life and health. Based on the principle that excessive spending on health and safety, or lack of necessary development, may cause poverty and thereby actually decrease (adjusted) life expectancy, the author has developed a Life Product Index which gives comparable results to the Human Development Index promoted by the United Nations Development Program. These two social indicators can be used for purposes such as project evaluation, choosing between alternative technologies, or evaluation of health and safety programs
This report contains an evaluation of data available about the deleterious effects of exposure of people to ionising radiation, assuming that the total exposure is low (low dose) or that exposure to dose takes place gradually (low dose rate). It is a revision of the 1985 Health Council report on 'The scientific foundations for radiation protection policy based on the UNSCEAR-77, -82, and BEIR reports'. The report is also meant to be a reply to a request for advice made by the Minister of Welfare, Public Health and Culture in 1989. Scientific opinion on induction of cancer by radiation has clearly changed since 1988. This is a consequence of new publications of epidemiological studies among survivors of the atomic explosions of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Committee that has produced the present report has paid much attention to this development. Besides, in the request for advice just mentioned it is asked whether the margins of uncertainty which complicated the quantitative assessment of the radiation risk can be reduced. Consequently the Committee has dealt extensively with the potential errors and uncertainties in available data. Especially these 2 elements - a careful consideration of a recent shift in scientific opinion and a constant attention for the magnitude of potential uncertainties - have had a predominant influence on the content and design of this report. The Committee has tried to answer as fully as possible the complex question how to transform results of scientific research into a well-organised data set on which the government can base its radiation protection policy. The Committee had also compared its evaluation to the recent recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the points of view of the Dutch policy directive 'Dealing with radiation risks'. (author). 111 refs.; 12 tabs
Perera, Jeevan S.
Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
... smoke - risks; Cigarette smoking - risks; Smoking and smokeless tobacco - risks; Nicotine - risks ... Tobacco is a plant. Its leaves are smoked, chewed, or sniffed for a variety of effects. Tobacco ...
... prevention; CVD - risk factors; Cardiovascular disease - risk factors; Coronary artery disease - risk factors; CAD - risk factors ... do smoke, quit. Controlling your cholesterol through diet, exercise, and medicines . Controlling high blood pressure through diet, ...
Risk assessment and risk management are parts of a dynamic process with the objective to decide on the tolerability of risk and on measures to keep risk within accepted limits. It enables all relevant parties to express their concerns and preferences regarding the different options for the human action involved and regarding the relative importance of criteria to decide on the tolerability of risk. Risk assessment has three phases; problem definition, risk analysis and risk characterization. Risk analysis is primarily a technical and scientific endeavour. With regard to problem definition and ride characterization consultation between risk assessors and risk managers (and other parties concerned) is a must. (author)
This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope
Jose Andres Calvache
Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.
Perera, Jeevan S.
Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.
Latarjet, R. (Institut du Radium, Orsay (France))
The author presents a general definition of the concept of risk and makes a distinction between the various types of risk - the absolute and the relative; the risk for oneself and for others. The quantitative comparison of risks presupposes their ''interchangeability''. In the case of major risks in the long term - or genotoxic risks - there is a certain degree of interchangeability which makes this quantitative comparison possible. It is expressed by the concept of rad-equivalence which the author defines and explains giving as a concrete example the work conducted on ethylene and ethylene oxide.
The author presents a general definition of the concept of risk and makes a distinction between the various types of risk - the absolute and the relative; the risk for oneself and for others. The quantitative comparison of risks presupposes their ''interchangeability''. In the case of major risks in the long term - or genotoxic risks - there is a certain degree of interchangeability which makes this quantitative comparison possible. It is expressed by the concept of rad-equivalence which the author defines and explains giving as a concrete example the work conducted on ethylene and ethylene oxide [fr
Günter Franke; Richard C. Stapleton; Marti G. Subrahmanyam
We present a necessary and sufficient condition on an agent's utility function for a simple mean preserving spread in an independent background risk to increase the agent's risk aversion (incremental risk vulnerability). Gollier and Pratt (1996) have shown that declining and convex risk aversion as well as standard risk aversion are sufficient for risk vulnerability. We show that these conditions are also sufficient for incremental risk vulnerability. In addition, we present sufficient condit...
such that the corresponding relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine the set of associated utility functions. We find a new characterization of risk vulnerability and determine a large set of utility functions, closed under summation and composition, which are both risk vulnerable...... and have decreasing relative risk premium. We finally introduce the notion of partial risk neutral preferences on binary lotteries and show that partial risk neutrality is equivalent to preferences with decreasing relative risk premium...
Seiler, F.A.; Alvarez, J.L.
Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented
Various dimensions of risk are identified which relate to the manner in which risk is perceived and evaluated, and several self-consistent risk characteristics are explored. Factors which are thought to influence the perception of risk include the degree of personal control over the risk, the potential of episodic events, and the probable severity of injury if a risk event occurs. Risk-benefit analysis can be applied to three problems: the allocation of resources for safety expenditures, the setting of standards, and societal risk taking decisions. Calculations of benefit are needed for the third area of application, methods for the other two frequently do not require such a measure. (orig./RW) [de
Food risk analysis is a holistic approach to food safety because it considers all aspects of the problem. Risk assessment modeling is the foundation of food risk analysis. Proper design and simulation of the risk assessment model is important to properly predict and control risk. Because of knowl...
Hoffrage, Ulrich; Koller, Michael
Communication between physicians and patients in everyday life is marked by a number of disruptive factors. Apart from specific interests, mistakes, and misunderstandings on both sides, there are main factors that contribute to the risk in risk communication. Using the example of mammography screening, the current work demonstrates how the meaning of test results and the informative value of measures taken to reduce risk are often misunderstood. Finally, the current work provides examples of successful risk communication.
Vojnovic, D.; Kozuh, M.
The risk allocation procedure is used as an analytical model to support the optimal decision making for reliability/availability improvement planning. Both levels of decision criteria, the plant risk measures and plant performance indices, are used in risk allocation procedure. Decision support system uses the multi objective decision making concept. (author) [sl
... are here: Home For Patients Risk Factors Risk Factors for Scleroderma The cause of scleroderma is still ... Scientists are working diligently to understand what biological factors contribute to scleroderma pathogenesis. Genetic Risk Scleroderma does ...
This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)
The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)
Peltier, Thomas R
Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and
Cooney, Marie Therese
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?
Takada, Hellinton H.; Stern, Julio M.
The first portfolio risk diversification strategy was put into practice by the All Weather fund in 1996. The idea of risk diversification is related to the risk contribution of each available asset class or investment factor to the total portfolio risk. The maximum diversification or the risk parity allocation is achieved when the set of risk contributions is given by a uniform distribution. Meucci (2009) introduced the maximization of the Rényi entropy as part of a leverage constrained optimization problem to achieve such diversified risk contributions when dealing with uncorrelated investment factors. A generalization of the risk parity is the risk budgeting when there is a prior for the distribution of the risk contributions. Our contribution is the generalization of the existent optimization frameworks to be able to solve the risk budgeting problem. In addition, our framework does not possess any leverage constraint.
Full Text Available The notion of 'risk' is used in a number of sciences. The Faculty of Law studies the risk depending on its legality. The Accident Theory applies this term to describe the damage and the disasters. One can find studies on the risks in the works of psychology, philosophy, medicine and within each of these areas the study of the risk is based on the given science subject and, of course, on their methods and approaches. Such a variety of risk study is explained by the diversity of this phenomenon. Under the market economy conditions, the risk is an essential component of any economic agent management policy, of the approach developed by this one, a strategy that depends almost entirely on individual ability and capacity to anticipate his evolution and to exploit his opportunities, assuming a so-called 'risk of business failure.' There are several ways to measure the risks in projects, one of the most used methods to measure this being the Value at Risk(VaR. Value at Risk (VaR was made famous by JP Morgan in the mid 1990s, by introducing the RiskMetrics approach, and hence, by far, has been sanctioned by several Governing Bodies throughout the world bank. In short, it measures the value of risk capital stocks in a given period at a certain probability of loss. This measurement can be modified for risk applications through, for example, the potential loss values affirmation in a certain amount of time during the economic life of the project- clearly, a project with a lower VaR is better. It should be noted that it is not always possible or advisable for a company to limit itself to the remote analysis of each risk because the risks and their effects are interdependent and constitute a system .In addition, there are risks which, in combination with other risks, tend to produce effects which they would not have caused by themselves and risks that tend to offset and even cancel each other out.
The conflict between the apparently 'objective' and 'perceived' risks of transport of irradiated fuel and of nuclear power in general is discussed. Headings are: introduction; risk definitions; perceived risks; the social conditions of risk -technology as a social process. (U.K.)
Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef
risk, the standard capital asset pricing model (CAPM) increasingly overestimates expected equity returns relative to firms' true (skew-adjusted) market risk. Empirically, the profitability of betting against beta/volatility increases with firms' downside risk, and the risk-adjusted return differential...
Abraham, Janice M.
The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…
Niehaus, F.; Novegno, A.
Risk assessment, including probabilistic analyses, has made great progress over the past decade. In spite of the inherent uncertainties it has now become possible to utilize methods and results for decision making at various levels. This paper will, therefore, review risk management in industrial installations, risk management for energy safety policy and prospects of risk management in highly industrialized areas. (orig.) [de
The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The
Cohen, B.L.; Lee, I.S.
Information on risks is collected from various sources and converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types, various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee, saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors, marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam, catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general. Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in individual actions, very-hazardous activities, and priorities and perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of similar or competing activities. (author)
Krebs, John R
This paper reviews the relationship between scientific evidence, uncertainty, risk and regulation. Risk has many different meanings. Furthermore, if risk is defined as the likelihood of an event happening multiplied by its impact, subjective perceptions of risk often diverge from the objective assessment. Scientific evidence may be ambiguous. Scientific experts are called upon to assess risks, but there is often uncertainty in their assessment, or disagreement about the magnitude of the risk. The translation of risk assessments into policy is a political judgement that includes consideration of the acceptability of the risk and the costs and benefits of legislation to reduce the risk. These general points are illustrated with reference to three examples: regulation of risk from pesticides, control of bovine tuberculosis and pricing of alcohol as a means to discourage excessive drinking.
Gabriela ANGHELACHE; Ana-Cornelia OLTEANU (PUIU); Alina-Nicoleta RADU
Beginning with the fact that performant strategies of the financial institutions have programmes and management procedures for the banking risks, which have as main objective to minimize the probability of risk generation and the bank’s potential exposure, this paper wants to present the operational risk measurement. Therefore, the first part presents the conceptual approach of the operational risks through the point of view of the financial institutions exposed to this type of risk. The seco...
A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it
Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley
Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of
Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs.
Experts and the public frequently disagree when it comes to risk assessment. The reasons for such disagreement are discussed, and it is pointed out that disagreement among experts and lack of full understanding of real risks contributes to skepticism among the public. The notion that people are in general reacting in a highly emotional and non-rational, phobic, manner is rejected. The very conditions for risk assessment present to the public, and common-sense cognitive dynamics, are better explanations of risk perception, as are some social psychological concepts. If trust is to be established in a country where it is quite low some kind of politically regulated public influence on decision making and risk monitoring is probably needed, e.g. by means of a publicly elected and responsible ombudsman. 57 refs, 8 figs, 5 tabs
Agung Nur Probohudono
Full Text Available This study analyses the communication of the five major categories of risk (business, strategy, market and credit risk disclosure over the volatile 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC time period in key South East Asian countries’ manufacturing listed companies. This study is important as it contributes to the literature by providing insights into the voluntary risk disclosure practices using sample countries with different economic scenarios. Key findings are that business risk is the most disclosed category and strategy risk is the least disclosed. Business and credit risk disclosure consistently increase over the three year period, while operating, market and strategy risk disclosure increase in 2008, but then decrease slightly in 2009. Statistical analysis reveals that country of incorporation and size help predict risk disclosure levels. The overall low disclosure levels (26-29% highlight the potential for far higher communication of key risk factors.
Launching of the first natural gas contract by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in April 1990 was a huge success which allowed natural gas to surpass crude oil as the most successful launch of any commodity contract. Despite this unprecedented initial success it must be kept in mind that in a competitive marketplace there are risks of many kinds (market risks, price risks, basis risks, currency risks and timing risks), that parties must deal with in everyday operations. The concept of risk management was defined, techniques and issues in risk management were explained, a glossary of fully explained industry terms, and basic financial tools most often used in risk management, were provided. 11 figs
We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 > y1. We define the relative risk...... premium as the quotient between the risk premium and the increase in wealth y1–x which the decision maker puts on the line by choosing the lottery in place of receiving y1 with certainty. We study preferences such that the relative risk premium is a decreasing function of present wealth, and we determine...... relative risk premium in the small implies decreasing relative risk premium in the large, and decreasing relative risk premium everywhere implies risk aversion. We finally show that preferences with decreasing relative risk premium may be equivalently expressed in terms of certain preferences on risky...
Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten; Rutström, E. Elisabet
We elicit individual preferences over social risk. We identify the extent to which these preferences are correlated with preferences over individual risk and the well-being of others. We examine these preferences in the context of laboratory experiments over small, anonymous groups, although...... the methodological issues extend to larger groups that form endogenously (e.g., families, committees, communities). Preferences over social risk can be closely approximated by individual risk attitudes when subjects have no information about the risk preferences of other group members. We find no evidence...... that subjects systematically reveal different risk attitudes in a social setting with no prior knowledge about the risk preferences of others compared to when they solely bear the consequences of the decision. However, we also find that subjects are significantly more risk averse when they know the risk...
Lyng Jensen, Jesper; Ponsaing, Claus Due; Thrane, Sof
have named Structural Risk. This effect is caused by the occurrence of a resource fluctuation which challenges the risk owner's ability to gain control of adequate resources, thus forcing the risk owner to prioritize and terminate other activities and projects. In this process value is destroyed...... to large risk events is to mitigate the consequences of the risk event through negotiating with the environment. If such negotiations fail, the subject will have no alternative but to let other activities and projects under direct control of the risk owner suffer. We end the article with conjectures...
The bachelor thesis deals with the cyber risk in banking industry. Its main goal is to stress the imporatance of cyber risk both verbally and numericaly and review the approach of banks to this risk. The first part of this thesis specifies what cyber risk is and how it fits among other operational risks, presents the common cyber-attacks and archetypes of cyber criminals, later it delves into the cyber risk in Czech Republic and at the end of this part it mentions the legislation that covers ...
Thompson, W.A. Jr.
This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested
Harris, Janet; Mosdell, Nicholas; Griffiths, James
Are female journalists more at risk in covering conflict than their male colleagues? \\ud Beck states ‘risk is the anticipation of the catastrophe – so it is existent and non-existent’. Is the contention that female journalists are more at risk, knowledge, or a construction of knowledge? Are Editors and journalists who decide that women are more at risk merely anticipating a catastrophe? There is no certainty that women would be more at risk, but the fear that women are more at risk can preven...
Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam
. Entrepreneurs are only found to be unique in their lower degree of loss aversion, and not in their risk or ambiguity aversion. This combination of results might be explained by our finding that perceived risk attitude is not only correlated to risk aversion but also to loss aversion. Overall, we therefore...... entrepreneurs to managers – a suitable comparison group – and employees (n = 2288). The results indicate that entrepreneurs perceive themselves as less risk averse than managers and employees, in line with common wisdom. However, when using experimental incentivized measures, the differences are subtler...... suggest using a broader definition of risk that captures this unique feature of entrepreneurs; their willingness to risk losses....
Tubiana, M.; Vrousos, C.; Pages, J.P.; Carde, C.
This book brings together the communications presented at the colloquium 'risk and society' held in Paris (France) on November 1998. During this colloquium, the various aspects of risk and of its management were discussed by medical specialists, historians, industrialists, engineers, philosophers, lawyers, politicians and administration representatives. The first theme concerns the controversies generated by the development of some activities (genetics, bio-technologies, nuclear and radiations use). The second theme concerns the management of risks and the way to conciliate the point of view of authorities and citizens (confidence of the public with respect to experts, scientists, industrialists, government and administrative representatives, role played by the media). The debates that took place during the colloquium have shown that the public opinion concerning the nuclear activities or the new technologies greatly depends on the ideological attitudes and on the public's likes and dislikes with respect to some categories of actors (distrust with respect to public decisions, fears with respect to changes and future, nostalgia of the past). The following aspects are reviewed: Notions of risk and hazard (risk and health, risk in today's society, medicine and society, the point of view of the industrialists and of the scientific and technical specialists); from the psychological aspects of the risk to its social aspects (survey of the risk assessment battlefield, social attenuation and amplification of risk, the feeling of risks in Europe, insecurity and delinquency, controversies around radioactivity and health); the negotiation and communication about risks (risk and public health, negotiation around risks, risks and information dissemination about the public debate, communication and crisis, evolution of risk communication, comparison between American and European approaches, the Seveso directive); the public debate and the evolution of risks management (the
Full Text Available The article’s objective is to demonstrate the causality of risks involved in the audit, in order to minimize the audit risk associated with formulating the adequate audit conclusion based on the risks of the company’s financial reporting and the effectiveness of company’s internal control. The meaning of entrepreneurial risk and risk management methods at company level are discussed, with emphasizing the impact of risks on the reliability of financial reporting. Four components of the risk involved in external audit are outlined and discussed: entrepreneurial risk, risk of financial reporting, risk of taking obligations, risk of audit. The causality between risk components having impact on audit is illustrated. The essence and methods of risk management in audit are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the issue of whether or not a client be accepted for audit service and whether or not the audit-based cooperation with it be prolonged constitutes a primary decision with respect to each audit. Factors behind the auditor’s decision to accept a new client or continue to work with the previous one are highlighted. It is emphasized that the honesty of management personnel has the foremost importance for an auditor; sources of information about the honesty of management personnel are shown.
Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A
Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
... risk factors are unique to women. These include: Menopause Use of hormonal birth control (certain types of combination pills, patches, ... risk factors are unique to women. These include: Menopause Use of hormonal birth control (certain types of combination pills, patches, ...
This book presents recent research using cognitive science to apprehend risk situations and elaborate new organizations, new systems and new methodological tools in response. The book demonstrates the reasons, advantages and implications of the association of the concepts of cognition and risk. It is shown that this association has strong consequences on how to apprehend critical situations that emerge within various activity domains, and how to elaborate responses to these critical situations.. The following topics are covered by the book: · Influence of the culture in risk management, · Influence of the risk communication in risk management, · User-centred design to improve risk situation management, · Designing new tools to assist risk situation management, · Risk prevention in industrial activities.
Straub, Daniel; Welpe, Isabell
This is a unique book addressing the integration of risk methodology from various fields. It stimulates intellectual debate and communication across disciplines, promotes better risk management practices and contributes to the development of risk management methodologies. Book chapters explain fundamental risk models and measurement, and address risk and security issues from diverse areas such as finance and insurance, health sciences, life sciences, engineering and information science. Integrated Risk Sciences is an emerging field, that considers risks in different fields aiming at a common language, and at sharing and improving methods developed in different fields. Readers should have a Bachelor degree and at least one basic university course in statistics and probability. The main goal of the book is to provide basic knowledge on risk and security in a common language; the authors have taken particular care to ensure that each chapter can be understood by doctoral students and researchers across disciplin...
... Brain cells can die, causing lasting damage. Risk factors are things that increase your chance of getting ... disease or condition. This article discusses the risk factors for stroke and things you can do to ...
Risk assessment in the Canadian nuclear fuel cycle is a very important and complex subject. Many levels of government are involved in deciding the acceptable limits for the risks, taking into account the benefits for society [fr
The report explains the possibilities and limits of risk analysis, risk assessment by the citizen, especially in hearings in the course of licensing procedures, and decisive causes why assessments on the part of the citizens may fail. (HP) [de
... Cancer Genetics Services Directory Cancer Prevention Overview Research Alcohol and Cancer Risk On This Page What is ... in the risk of colorectal cancer. Research on alcohol consumption and other cancers: Numerous studies have examined ...
Boman, Arthur Lee
I solve a consumption based model, with interfirm systemic risk, for a portfolio optimization with arbitrary return distributions and endogenous stochastic discount factor (sdf). The model highlights a new systemic risk: systemic allocation risk. In contrast to the case without systemic risk, the market and planner allocate capital differently. The externality causes the planner to reduce investment in the risky firm. The market, modeled as a representative agent, does not just ignore the ext...
The conditions, difficulties and possibilities of communication on technological risks are detailed here. There is a description of the types and levels of argument on risks and the risk-concept itself, of the research field of risk communication, of the conceptional frame-work of the working-party, of the research programme and of the chances for a long-term prospect from the group. (DG) [de
Stanciu Victoria; Ali Eden; Ivancenco Veronica Constanta
Managing risks become a very challenging task for any organization and one of its priorities. The rising complexity of modern business processes, the globalization and the IT business perspective determined important changes in making business approach bringing opportunities but also increasing risks. Recent years have emphasized concern and focus on risk, and it became increasingly clear that a need exists for a robust framework to effectively identify, assess, and manage risk. COSO response...
Silvia Figini; Lijun Gao; Paolo Giudici
Operational risk is hard to quantify, for the presence of heavy tailed loss distributions. Extreme value distributions, used in this context, are very sensitive to the data, and this is a problem in the presence of rare loss data. Self risk assessment questionnaires, if properly modelled, may provide the missing piece of information that is necessary to adequately estimate op- erational risks. In this paper we propose to embody self risk assessment data into suitable prior distributions, and ...
Tump, Rainer; Damböck, Johanna; Hehemann, Patric; Ouna, Victor Kanyangi; Mbabu, Oscar Koome; Nagel, Lukas; Risch, Manuel; Mwangi, Anne Wanjiru; Zentai, Fanni
In 2016, the Centre for Rural Development – commissioned by Transparency International – developed a Handbook on Land Corruption Risk Mapping, which helps NGOs, governmental institutions, and other actors to systematically identify and assess corruption risks in land governance and to develop effective counter-measures. The present study was produced during the development process of the handbook. It explains the handbook’s conceptual framework (corruption, corruption risks, risk assessment, ...
The theoretical part of the thesis analyzes several selected methodologies and best-practices related to information technology risks management, with focus on documents and guidance developed by ISACA. It builds a set of ideas and basic requirements for effective model of an IT risk register. Strong emphasis is placed on mapping CobiT 4.1 based Risk IT to COBIT 5. The practical part describes implementation of an exploratory web-based IT risk register in Python programming language utilizing...
Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.
Perception of risks by people depends on many factors, either characterizing the individuals, or specific to the risk sources. The risk concept, which confuses the issue, is precised first. Second, the perception phenomenon is presented as an interactive process involving the individual, the hazard, and the social context. Third, dimensions of perception are listed and used to describe the perception of radiation risks. Finally, the relation between perception and attitude is clarified. (author) 50 refs
Catalin-Florinel Stanescu; Laurentiu Mircea Simion
Concerns about the financial risk is increasing. In this climate, companies of all types and sizes want a robust framework for financial risk management to meet compliance requirements, contribute to better decision making and increase performance. Financial risk management professionals working with financial institutions and other corporate clients to achieve these objectives.
Gough, Michael; Glickman, Theodore S
... from Resources for the Future are distributed worldwide by The Johns Hopkins University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Readings in risk I Theodore S. Glickman and Michael Gough, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-915707-55-1 (alk. paper) 1. Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Health risk assessment....
Graversen, Peter; Abildstrøm, Steen Z.; Jespersen, Lasse
Aim European society of cardiology (ESC) guidelines recommend that cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification in asymptomatic individuals is based on the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithm, which estimates individual 10-year risk of death from CVD. We assessed the potential...
Bruce Power's definition: an emerging and demonstrable event or change in business plan assumptions that could impact Bruce Power's achievement of its business plan objectives and results. Risks can be either negative (threats) or positive (opportunities). Risks against the 5 year business plan Net Risk = impact * probability.
Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process
Wright, Shayla L.
Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.
Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.
Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.
Michael S. Finke
Full Text Available This paper reviews household property risk management and estimates normatively optimal choice under theoretical assumptions. Although risk retention limits are common in the financial planning industry, estimates of optimal risk retention that include both financial and human wealth far exceed limits commonly recommended. Households appear to frame property losses differently from other wealth losses leading to wealth-reducing, excess risk transfer. Possible theoretical explanations for excess sensitivity to loss are reviewed. Differences between observed and optimal risk management imply a large potential gain from improved choice.
This work is the definitive guide for IT managers and agile practitioners. It elucidates the principles of agile risk management and how these relate to individual projects. Explained in clear and concise terms, this synthesis of project risk management and agile techniques is illustrated using the major methodologies such as XP, Scrum and DSDM.Although the agile community frequently cites risk management, research suggests that risk is often narrowly defined and, at best, implicitly treated, which in turn leads to an inability to make informed decisions concerning risk and reward and a poor u
Sunesen, Eva Rytter
and Latin American countries, but the idiosyncratic risk factor also represents a larger share than in other developing countries. As a final contribution, we search the empirical literature on foreign direct investment and risk in order to determine which of the suggested risk measures provide the best...... for the systematic components due to the global and regional interdependence between alternative investment locations. The decomposition of conditional risk into its systematic and idiosyncratic components reveals that not only are African countries on average characterised by a larger conditional risk than Asian...
Worthman, Christopher; Troiano, Beverly
This article draws on Foucault's later work to consider in an exploratory but specific way how that work can inform educational research. It introduces the concepts of "capillary discourses" and "fissure points" to show, by way of example, how a regime of truth such as neoliberalism shapes lifelong learning theory, the pedagogy…
Full Text Available As international human rights governance has evolved, it has regulated state action toward individuals in areas that were once at the discretion of states. This change has raised liminal questions concerning authority and leadership. To address these questions, we examine the interaction of the Netherlands and the European Court of Human Rights in cases concerning immigration and asylum. As the Netherlands has a history of self-proclaimed leadership in rights protection, an analysis of the Court’s series of rebukes of the Netherlands yields particularly insightful findings. We find that the shift in rights decision-making has enhanced lawyers’ standing in the Netherlands’ domestic context in ways that enable these actors and the Court to increase international regulation of the Dutch state and that creates greater autonomy of the law from the Dutch state. At the same time, these dynamics challenge the domestic political culture by undermining national myths of the Dutch as uniquely enlightened human rights leaders. These changes demonstrate a shift in the qualities of human rights leadership, from a moralistic posture to a confessional one. Leadership, as made tangible in the reputation and positions taken before an international judicial body, now requires a capacity to express humility and to join in in a shared human rights project.
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What does Penny Thompson really want? Reading her article in "BJRE" 26 (1) proved a baffling experience: it clearly wanted to say something, and to say it passionately, yet signally failed to do so. It fails largely because it lacks an argument; there seems also to be conceptual muddle at its heart. A fuller critique will need to attend…
Assistant Professor, Michael Eilenberg,
This article explores the socio-economic significance of patronage at the edge of the Indonesian state. It argues that marginal borders and adjacent borderlands where state institutions are often weak, and state power continuously waxes and wanes, encourage the growth of non-state forms of author...
Andrew S. Gross
Full Text Available Berryman was fascinated with the figure of "the imaginary Jew." The phrase is the title of his first short story, it recurs in The Dream Songs, and it was to have been the topic of the final chapter of his autobiographical novel Recovery. Critics have not treated Berryman's "imaginary Jew" kindly. Early critics saw prosopopoeia as uncongenial to the confessional project. More recent critics see the figure as a misappropriation of Jewish identity. Berryman, however, did not want to pass himself off as Jewish; he invented the figure to expose the anti-Semitism of Eliot and Pound. His strategy of impersonating the stereotypical figure of "the Jew" was also in keeping with contemporary theories of prejudice and identity, which followed Sartre and psychoanalysis in understanding Jewishness as a product of morbid projection. My essay traces the critical reception—and rejection—of Berryman in order to expose what I see as the "identitarian" bias of American studies since the 1970s, most recently evident in debates over "the Americanization of the Holocaust." Berryman's transpersonal poetry, I argue, is also transnational, both in its personification of Nazi victims and in its comparison of domestic racism and the Vietnam War to genocide. Berryman's concern is not identity but the violence implicit in designating the other as Other. This violence not only plays a role in prejudice but also in progressive theories of "ethnic lyricism" that see the individual as an expression of her "culture" or "nation" and the poem as a personification of the individual.
Andrew S. Gross
Full Text Available
Berryman was fascinated with the figure of "the imaginary Jew." The phrase is the title of his first short story, it recurs in The Dream Songs, and it was to have been the topic of the final chapter of his autobiographical novel Recovery. Critics have not treated Berryman's "imaginary Jew" kindly. Early critics saw prosopopoeia as uncongenial to the confessional project. More recent critics see the figure as a misappropriation of Jewish identity. Berryman, however, did not want to pass himself off as Jewish; he invented the figure to expose the anti-Semitism of Eliot and Pound. His strategy of impersonating the stereotypical figure of "the Jew" was also in keeping with contemporary theories of prejudice and identity, which followed Sartre and psychoanalysis in understanding Jewishness as a product of morbid projection. My essay traces the critical reception—and rejection—of Berryman in order to expose what I see as the "identitarian" bias of American studies since the 1970s, most recently evident in debates over "the Americanization of the Holocaust." Berryman's transpersonal poetry, I argue, is also transnational, both in its personification of Nazi victims and in its comparison of domestic racism and the Vietnam War to genocide. Berryman's concern is not identity but the violence implicit in designating the other as Other. This violence not only plays a role in prejudice but also in progressive theories of "ethnic lyricism" that see the individual as an expression of her "culture" or "nation" and the poem as a personification of the individual.
Strine, Mary S.
Examines Syron's novel as a strategic rhetorical response to the problems of racism in America with far-ranging implications in American social and institutional history. Argues that the novel's shaping vision illuminates the ethical dilemma of the liberal humanist and explores the ramifications of violence for self-definition and social reform.…
Stallings, William M.
Describes one quantitative educational researcher's experiences teaching qualitative research, the approach used in classes, and the successes and failures. These experiences are examined from the viewpoint of a traditionally trained professor who has now been called upon to master and teach qualitative research. (GR)
in its essential non-significance, its obvious relativity, humanity, multiplicity, mutability, and transi toriness … ... to the Word of God, more conducive to general friendship and. 1 Karl Barth in The theology of the ... affirmation of the Christian churches, John Leith (1973:1) makes the general observation that “Christianity has ...
Moser, S. C.
Graduate education in the sciences is - among other things - about learning a foreign language. Proficiency in disciplinary jargon and a strange sort of eloquence in speaking English without being understood by anyone outside one's small 'country of expertise' are among the requirements for entry into academe. Until very recently, the ability to translate one's quirky knowledge back into common language was not part of entraining scientists. Yet, increasingly, the interested public, policy-makers and resource managers, not to speak of science funders, demand that scientists illustrate that their science has societal relevance. Moreover, the urgency of several complex societal and environmental problems puts the onus on scientists to work with experts in other disciplines. This means that the ability to communicate effectively with those outside one's own disciplinary home is rapidly becoming an essential qualification of a 'good' scientist. My own journey from a disciplinary boundary crosser, to hobby communicator, to professional translator of science into English, to alumnae of various media trainings and Aldo Leopold Leadership Fellow, to researcher of the science-practice interface and expert in communication for social change will form the basis of this talk. It weaves together personal experience with scientific insights on why scientists should, why many don't, and how they could interact more effectively with members of a 'different tribe.'
Biderman, Albert D
.... The methods are as follows: isolation, monopolization of perception, induced debilitation or exhaustion, threats, occasional indulgences, demonstrating "omnipotence" and "omniscience," degradation, and enforcing trivial demands...
Kotze, Ella; Bowman, Brett
For lesbians, "coming out" or disclosing one's sexual orientation has come to be seen as a marker of self-acceptance, actualization, and the imperative first step in the authentication of a liberated subjectivity and social identity. However, other critical schools of thought, largely informed by Foucault's middle writings, have argued that "coming out" is merely a confessional response to an incitement to discourse about sex. This study explored constructions of coming out by a group of self-identified lesbians in South Africa. Data were collected via eight semistructured interviews and subjected to discourse analysis. Although the coming-out stories appear to conform to some discursive practices characterizing confessional modes of response to incitements to speak, they are also de-emphasized as central to the constitution of selfhood. The changing conditions of possibility for the production of sexual subjectivity in contemporary South Africa seem to disrupt understandings of coming out as either solely a confessional or liberatory practice.
Full Text Available The beginning of the twentieth century manifests itself as a time of dissent towards the traditional forms of knowledge, such as philosophy, science and writing itself. Investing in the fields of dream and mystery, the literature of this epoch rejects the scientific, positivist logic, clamoring for new values. The aim of this paper is to read A Confissão de Lúcio, by Mário de Sá-Carneiro, as a narrative that understands memory as a dreamlike discourse opposed to scientific rationality.
Gartrell, N K
SUMMARY The author discusses the evolution of non-monogamy in a 24-year lesbian relationship. The couple's initial agreement stipulated that outside liasions be concealed as much as possible. More recently, the couple has established a complex system for incorporating other paramours into their lives.
Sarina, Salima A.; Nukusheva, Aigul A.; Kalmagambetov, Kassym S.; Kumysbekova, Zhanara T.; Nesterova, Elena V.
The article contains a comparative analysis of foreign arbitration courts' decisions, ensuring the reciprocity and public policy. The aim of the study is to explore such aspects as reciprocity and public policy of arbitration courts. The result is the view of the public policy, despite its apparent irrelevance in today's Kazakhstan, which is of…
DelliCarpini, Margo, Ed.; Adams, Susan R.
When the author first started teaching English as a Second Language (ESL) students, she was incredibly naive about the second language acquisition process. One of the first moves she made was to look at the Teachers of English to Speakers of Other Languages (TESOL) goals, and she began to think about the purposes and situations in which her…
Santana, Rafael; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
The beginning of the twentieth century manifests itself as a time of dissent towards the traditional forms of knowledge, such as philosophy, science and writing itself. Investing in the fields of dream and mystery, the literature of this epoch rejects the scientific, positivist logic, clamoring for new values. The aim of this paper is to read A Confissão de Lúcio, by Mário de Sá-Carneiro, as a narrative that understands memory as a dreamlike discourse opposed to scientific rationality. O...
The beginning of the twentieth century manifests itself as a time of dissent towards the traditional forms of knowledge, such as philosophy, science and writing itself. Investing in the fields of dream and mystery, the literature of this epoch rejects the scientific, positivist logic, clamoring for new values. The aim of this paper is to read A Confissão de Lúcio, by Mário de Sá-Carneiro, as a narrative that understands memory as a dreamlike discourse opposed to scientific rationality.
Siegel, Linda S.
The educational systems in all countries have failed to adequately address the problems of students with learning disabilities. Antisocial behaviour, homelessness, mental health problems and even suicide are a result. This article will explore the reasons for this state of affairs. One of the major reasons is excessive reliance on testing without…
Greiler, M.; Van Deursen, A.; Storey, M.A.
Testing plug-in-based systems is challenging due to complex interactions among many different plug-ins, and variations in version and configuration. The objective of this paper is to increase our understanding of what testers and developers think and do when it comes to testing plug-inbased systems.
Johnson, Terry L.
Wrongful criminal convictions have come to the attention of the public and the criminal justice community in recent decades as a result of DNA evidence that has proven innocence after conviction. Research has suggested that as many as 3% to 5% of people currently imprisoned did not, in fact, commit the crimes for which they were convicted. A…
Sharrock, R; Gudjonsson, G H
The main purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between interrogative suggestibility and previous convictions among 108 defendants in criminal trials, using a path analysis technique. It was hypothesized that previous convictions, which may provide defendants with interrogative experiences, would correlate negatively with 'shift' as measured by the Gudjonsson Suggestibility Scale (Gudjonsson, 1984a), after intelligence and memory had been controlled for. The hypothesis was partially confirmed and the theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.
Gunnels, Claire B.; Sisson, Amy
Have you ever stopped to think about life before Google? We will make the argument that Google is the first manifestation of Web 2.0, of the power and promise of social networking and the ubiquitous wiki. We will discuss the positive influence of Google and how Google and other social networking tools afford librarians leading-edge technologies…
To bridge the technology cultural gap between many faculty and administrators and the youngest generation of college students, this author, a recent graduate, reveals what being a "Net Gener" really means and how that can translate to the classroom. She discusses what she considers the basic principles that guide the Net Generation: (1)…
Oprah Winfrey is a very popular figure in contemporary American culture. Often described as 'authentic', the chapter explores the ways in which Winfrey deploys confessional practices on her TV talk show as a means to engender trust.
Robertson, Amy D.; Elliott, Leslie J. Atkins
The two of us (AR and LAE), in our teaching, research, and work with teachers, advocate for responsive teaching—an approach that seeks out and builds on the productive "seeds of science" in what our students say and do and assumes that "all students…are brilliant." This pedagogical approach requires a commitment to listening to and intellectually empathizing with students' scientific ideas.
Mann, Alfred E
In this wide-ranging interview, Alfred Mann describes the activities of several medical technology enterprises with which he is engaged. Several of them are companies that he formed; one is a nonprofit foundation, the Alfred E. Mann Foundation for Biomedical Engineering, founded to establish research-oriented institutes on a dozen university campuses and support their work in developing marketable innovations. Mann discusses the need to consider the cost implications of technology, in the context of U.S. health system reform, and describes several important innovations that have emerged from his companies over the years.
Breast cancer is the most frequent malignant neoplasia among women in Germany. The use of mammography as the most relevant diagnostic procedure has increased rapidly over the last decade. Radiation risks associated with mammography may be estimated from the results of numerous epidemiological studies providing risk coefficients for breast cancer in relation to age at exposure. Various calculations can be performed using the risk coefficients. For instance, a single mammography examination (bilateral, two views of each breast) of a women aged 45 may enhance the risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime numerically from about 12% of 12.0036%. This increase in risk is lower by a factor of 3,300 as compared to the risk of developing breast cancer in the absence of radiation exposure. At the age of 40 or more, the benefit of mammography exceeds the radiation risk by a factor of about 100. At higher ages this factor increases further. Finally, the dualism of individual risk and collective risk is considered. It is shown that the individual risk of a patient, even after multiple mammography examinations, is vanishingly small. Nevertheless, the basic principle of minimising radiation exposure must be followed to keep the collective risk in the total population as low as reasonably achievable. (orig.) [de
Brenot, J.; Bonnefous, S.; Hubert, Ph.
Many factors are involved in the perception of a risk by individuals. Some are individual related (psychology, knowledge, experience), others describe the social environment (culture, ideology), others at end precise the nature of the risk. The word risk has various meanings and is understood differently by the three main categories involved in risk management, that is engineers, administrators and lay public. Several models which describe the perception phenomenon are presented. The dimensions affecting perception are listed. Based on public opinion poll data, a risk taxonomy is proposed, perceived nuclear risks are compared with other risks, and results are given concerning trust in the information diffused and the credibility of those in charge of nuclear activities. (author)
Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions. This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology, subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems. Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...
Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.
The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events
Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)
Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.
The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits
Chauvet, Marcelle; Gabriel, Stuart; Lutz, Chandler
We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage ...... delinquency indicators, and subprime credit default swaps. These results persist both in- and out-of-sample and at multiple data frequencies. Together, research findings suggest internet search queries yield valuable new insights into household mortgage default risk.......We use Google search query data to develop a broad-based and real-time index of mortgage default risk. Unlike established indicators, our Mortgage Default Risk Index (MDRI) directly reflects households’concerns regarding their risk of mortgage default. The MDRI predicts housing returns, mortgage...
Malevergne, Yannick; Beatrice, Rey
International audience; We introduce the notion of cross-risk vulnerability to generalize the concept of risk vulnerability introduced by Gollier and Pratt [Gollier, C., Pratt, J.W. 1996. Risk vulnerability and the tempering effect of background risk. Econometrica 64, 1109–1124]. While risk vulnerability captures the idea that the presence of an unfair financial background risk should make risk-averse individuals behave in a more risk-averse way with respect to an independent financial risk, ...
Credit risk is defined as that risk of financial loss caused by failure by the counterparty. According to statistics, for financial institutions, credit risk is much important than market risk, reduced diversification of the credit risk is the main cause of bank failures. Just recently, the banking industry began to measure credit risk in the context of a portfolio along with the development of risk management started with models value at risk (VAR). Once measured, credit risk can be diversif...
Martinez, I.; Campon, G.
The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk
Full Text Available The objective of the article is to analyse and present the classification of risks actual to derivative securities. The analysis is based on classical and modern literature findings and analysis of newest statistical data. The analysis led to the conclusion, that the main risks typical for derivatives contracts and their traders are market risk, liquidity risk, credit and counterparty risk, legal risk and transactions risk. Pricing risk and systemic risk is also quite important. The analysis showed that market risk is the most important kind of risk that in many situations influences the level of remaining risks.
Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar
Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.
McKim, Vicky L
In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.
The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.
Mahn, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, C.L. [Automated Solutions of Albuquerque, NM (United States)
The purpose of the Programmatic Risk Management System (PRMS) is to evaluate and manage potential risks associated with proposed projects (i.e., new products or processes, or possible research and technological development projects). Although the PRMS considers some technical aspects of risk, the primary focus of the methodology is programmatic risk. That is, the methodology permits an assessment of risks associated with such issues as the ability to successfully produce a product that performs in accordance with all customer requirements, and the availability and allocation of resources (money, equipment, facilities, skilled personnel). The PRMS process consists of five formalized activities that are essential for effective management of risks associated with proposed projects. These activities include risk assessment, development of appropriate risk mitigation strategies, estimating strategy implementation cost, ranking of risk mitigation strategies for resource allocation, and scheduling of strategy implementing. The PRMS utilizes a ranking system that allows the user to identify the most cost-effective investment of resources of minimizing risk.
Every human activity involves risk of accident or disease. Generation of energy is no exception. Although such risk has been considered for conventional systems (coal, oil and nuclear), a similar analysis for the so-called alternative or non-conventional systems (solar, wind, ocean thermal and methanol) has been lacking. This paper presents an evaluation of the risk, both occupational and to the public, of non-conventional energy systems. They are considered both in absolute terms and in relation to conventional systems. The risk of most non-conventional systems, per unit of energy output, is comparable to, and in some cases much higher than, the risk from coal and oil. This conclusion holds whether we consider deaths or injuries. Nuclear power and natural gas had the lowest overall risk of the ten technologies considered. Ocean thermal energy ranked third. The surprising result is that the other seven technologies considered were found to be up to 100 times less safe. The total risk is calculated by considering six components: material acquisition and construction, emissions caused by material production, operation and maintenance, energy back-up, energy storage, and transportation. In this way the risk of widely different systems can be fairly assessed. This methodology of 'risk accounting' will not tell us which energy technology to use. However, it can be employed to inform society of the risk inherent in competing energy systems. (author)
Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.
Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas
Englund, Jessica; Sernhed, Kerstin; Nystroem, Olle; Graveus, Frank (Grontmij AB, (Sweden))
The project, within which this work report was prepared, aimed to complement the Vaermeforsk publication 'Handbook of fuels' on fuel related risks and measures to reduce the risks. The fuels examined in this project where the fuels included in the first version of the handbook from 2005 plus four additional fuels that will be included in the second and next edition of the handbook. Following fuels were included: woodfuels (sawdust, wood chips, powder, briquettes), slash, recycled wood, salix, bark, hardwood, stumps, straw, reed canary grass, hemp, cereal, cereal waste, olive waste, cocoa beans, citrus waste, shea, sludge, forest industrial sludge, manure, Paper Wood Plastic, tyre, leather waste, cardboard rejects, meat and bone meal, liquid animal and vegetable wastes, tall oil pitch, peat, residues from food industry, biomal (including slaughterhouse waste) and lignin. The report includes two main chapters; a general risk chapter and a chapter of fuel specific risks. The first one deals with the general concept of risk, it highlights laws and rules relevant for risk management and it discuss general risks that are related to the different steps of fuel handling, i.e. unloading, storing, processing the fuel, transportation within the facility, combustion and handling of ashes. The information that was used to produce this chapter was gathered through a literature review, site visits, and the project group's experience from risk management. The other main chapter deals with fuel-specific risks and the measures to reduce the risks for the steps of unloading, storing, processing the fuel, internal transportation, combustion and handling of the ashes. Risks and measures were considered for all the biofuels included in the second version in the handbook of fuels. Information about the risks and risk management was gathered through interviews with people working with different kinds of fuels in electricity and heat plants in Sweden. The information from
1) understanding risk and risk management, (2) risk identification, (3) risk assessment and methods employed in managing risks (4) implementation of risk management methods, (5) risk monitoring and (6) future prospect of risk management.
Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro
The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to
Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.
Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian
Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies the eff...
Dominguez, Silvia; Schaffner, Donald W.
The meat and poultry industry faces ongoing challenges due to the natural association of pathogens of concern (e.g., Salmonella, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7) with a variety of domesticated food animals. In addition, pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes pose a significant cross-contamination risk during further meat and poultry processing, distribution, and storage. Furthermore, the meat and poultry industries are constantly changing with the addition of new products, use of new raw materials, and targeting of new consumer populations, each of which may give rise to potential new risks. National and international regulations are increasingly using a “risk-based” approach to food safety (where the regulatory focus is driven by the magnitude of the risk), so risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool to systematically organize and evaluate the potential public health risk posed by food processing operations.
Public constituencies frequently are criticized by technical experts as being irrational in response to low-probability risks. This presentation argued that most people are concerned with a variety of risk attributes other than probability and that is rather irrational to exclude these from the definition and analysis of technological risk. Risk communication, which is at the heart of the right-to-know concept, is described as the creation of shared meaning rather than the mere transmission of information. A case study of utilities, public utility commissions, and public interest groups illustrates how the diversity of institutional cultures in modern society leads to problems for the creation of shared meanings in establishing trust, distributing liability, and obtaining consent to risk. This holistic approach to risk analysis is most appropriate under conditions of high uncertainty and/or decision stakes. 1 fig., 5 tabs.
Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero
This book promotes good risk governance and risk management practices to corporate managers, executives, and directors wherever they operate around the world. The major corporate scandals have their roots in governance failure pointing to the link between risk governance and good performance...... outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book....... The underlying logic is built on the principles of financial economics where benefits derive from reducing bankruptcy costs and increasing future cash inflows. This provides a stringent framework for analyzing the effect of different risk management actions and behaviors in effective risk-taking organizations...
Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero
This book promotes good risk governance and risk management practices to corporate managers, executives, and directors wherever they operate around the world. The major corporate scandals have their roots in governance failure pointing to the link between risk governance and good performance...... outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... is framed around the challenges imposed on executives and directors in dealing with an increasingly complex and unpredictable world. This requires a new risk leadership focus that not only avoids the downside risks but also considers ways to exploit the upside potential offered by a dynamic environment...
This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so "clinician" is used to indicate all treatment team members.
Schizophrenia is a multifactorial, neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental risk factors. Disturbances of brain development begin prenatally, while different environmental insults further affect postnatal brain maturation during childhood and adolescence. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have succeeded in identifying hundreds of new risk variants for common, multifactorial diseases. In schizophrenia research, GWAS have found several rare copy number variants that considerably increase the risk of schizophrenia, and have shown an association between schizophrenia and the major histocompatibility complex. Research on environmental risk factors in recent years has provided new information particularly on risk factors related to pregnancy and childhood rearing environment. Gene-environment interactions have become a central research topic. There is evidence that genetically susceptible children are more vulnerable to the effects of unstable childhood rearing environment and other environmental risk factors.
Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita
Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...
Wilmotte, R. M.
The balance between benefits and risk is discussed from the standpoint of the decision or policy making process. The basic premise of the discussion is that applied technology may be divided into two parts: (1) benefit oriented technology which includes design, development, manufacturing or construction, and operations; and (2) risk or uncertainty technology which includes safety, reliability, quality assurance, test, and maintenance. Whereas the primary emphasis of the discussion is placed on the importance of a balance in the application of these technologies, arguments are presented which indicate that risk technologies lag far behind benefit technologies. In addition, existing conditions and pressures are described which lead to underestimating risk. The importance is stressed of developing a better sense of the advantages that knowledge of risk could provide via the decision making process. It is suggested that by experiment and analysis on the effects of increasing the contribution of risk technologies, a better understanding of their potentiality and limitations would result.
Zichella, Giulio; Reichstein, Toke
Theory conjectures that entrepreneurs are more likely than others to make risky choices. However, the empirical evidence is mixed. This paper offers new insights into entrepreneurs’ tendencies to make risky choices, by investigating the circumstances in which entrepreneurs are more/less likely...... to choose risk vis-à-vis certainty. Drawing on prospect theory, we formulate hypotheses about the greater likelihood that entrepreneurs (compared to others) will choose risk immediately after a positive gain, but will shy away from risk compared to others as the degree of risk increases. The hypotheses...... are tested using data collected in laboratory-based real money games experiments. We find support for our hypotheses, indicating that entrepreneurs’ bias towards risk is circumstantial. These results have fundamental implications for our understanding of factors guiding entrepreneurial choices under risk...
Heising, C.D.; George, V.P.
This study examines the economy-wide financial risk associated with reactor accidents as a result of various regulatory response options that might be imposed after a serious accident, including partial or complete nuclear moratoria. The authors find that such risks may be two to three times greater than the plant-specific financial risk estimates that have previously been calculated by others (ie 500 million (1985) dollars per reactor year versus 5 to 50 million dollars). (author)
Vik, Marie Amdal
Master's thesis in Risk management The overall aim of this study was to discuss the validity of the hypothesis that risk management contributes with added value to projects and the enterprise holding the projects, and consequently to the enterprise’s stakeholders. To examine this hypothesis, a case study of three projects taken from the same portfolio at Statoil was selected. The projects were said to have an active risk management. Data was collected from the project’s documentation as...
McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme
Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.
In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de
The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the literature with an investigation into strategic risk management practices from a strategic management and management accounting perspective. Previous research in strategic risk management has not provided sufficient evidence on the mechanisms behind firm practices, processes and tools for managing strategic risks, and their contingencies for value creation. In particular, the purpose of the thesis has been to fill the gaps in the l...
Sparrow, Penny A. C.
GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.
Yuriy A. Tikhomirov
Full Text Available Objective to develop conceptual theoretical and legal provisions and scientific recommendations on the identification analysis and elimination of risk. Methods universal dialectic method of cognition as well as scientific and private research methods based on it. Results the system was researched of risks diagnostics in the legal sphere and mechanism of influencing the quotrisk situationsquot and their consequences damage to the environment and harm to society. The concept of risk in the legal sphere was formulated the author39s classification of risks in the legal sphere is presented. The rules of analysis evaluation and prevention of risks and the model risk management framework are elaborated. Scientific novelty the mechanism for the identification analysis and elimination of risk has been developed and introduced into scientific circulation the author has proposed the classification and types of risks the reasons and the conditions promoting the risk occurrence. Practical significance the provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in the scientific lawmaking and lawenforcement activity as well as in the educational process of higher educational establishments. nbsp
Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)
Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...
Andersen, Torben Juul; Garvey, Maxine; Roggi, Oliviero
This book promotes good risk governance and risk management practices to corporate managers, executives, and directors wherever they operate around the world. The major corporate scandals have their roots in governance failure pointing to the link between risk governance and good performance...... outcomes. This topic is timely and of interest both to the academic community as well as to practicing managers, executives, and directors. The volume focuses on contemporary risk leadership issues based on recent research insights but avoids excessive technical language and mathematical formulas. The book...... the arguments in logical steps explicating relevant techniques and practices along the way that invite to immediate applications and practical thinking....
Lund, Mogens; Oksen, Arne; Larsen, Torben U.
A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed...... and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don’t apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory....
Companies that provide technology or project management involving a wise range of risks will increasingly find much more complex contractual relationships with their customers. This is due largely to the pressures exerted on those relationships by third parties. This paper explores the relationships between private contractors and their customers (frequently government agencies) and how risks affect those relationships. Perceptions of risk sometimes outweigh genuine risks, and the distinction between the two is often irrelevant. Media, site neighbors, adversaries, regulators, and national officials often tip the balance between reality and perception
Pop-Jordanov, J.; Pop-Jordanova, N.
The paper is devoted to comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources and their influence to public perception, social acceptability and decision-making. The technical heights of the risks, expressed in the number of fatalities of labor and public per unit energy output, from fossil, nuclear and renewable sources are analysed and compared. The complete energy cycle from mining to waste disposal, as well as the future trends, are taken into account. A comparison of the risks of different energy systems with the anticipated global and national energy shares by source is also presented. Furthermore, detailed studies of the non-technical dimensions of the energy risks are performed. Using a modified attitude-behaviour model, the cognitive structure underlying the positions towards different energy options is investigated. Estimating the diverse acting of the risk components, the consequent changes in the rank ordering of the energy sources are deduced. Finally, adding the psychological components nuclear reaches the highest place. In this respect, a unified multidimensional space for the representation of various technological risks is introduced. It affords a comparison of the risks not only by their technical height, but also by other characteristics (involuntary, fearfulness etc.). Finally, it was pointed out that in considering the risk characteristics and constraints, as well as the external fields, a system approach has to be used, taking into account the risks simultaneously with the benefits. 12 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs
After giving a definition of risk which is often used in radiation protection the preconditions planned to be applied in determining various health risks are dealt with. Dangers in everyday life are caused both by the general behaviour of humans, by occupational activity, by diseases and by the measures taken for examination and treatment. These health risks are referred to in the statistics and calculations presented. They are of a generally informative character; they show, however, that several kinds of diseases and death causes are overestimated, while others are underestimated. In some cases, the risk values given can significantly differ from average values due to individual factors. (orig.) [de
Sanger, Terence D
Human movement differs from robot control because of its flexibility in unknown environments, robustness to perturbation, and tolerance of unknown parameters and unpredictable variability. We propose a new theory, risk-aware control, in which movement is governed by estimates of risk based on uncertainty about the current state and knowledge of the cost of errors. We demonstrate the existence of a feedback control law that implements risk-aware control and show that this control law can be directly implemented by populations of spiking neurons. Simulated examples of risk-aware control for time-varying cost functions as well as learning of unknown dynamics in a stochastic risky environment are provided.
Villanueva Fernandez, M.
Nowadays more organizations are increasingly aware of the importance of properly managing the uncertainty of its activities and build competitive advantages through the identification, assessment and management of risks that they face. Risk management is also an aspect of great importance within the new version of ISO fact it is one of the most innovative and also the most laborious, because an appropriate risk management achieves expected results and customer satisfaction. In conclusion, risk management is a new field of business and can be considered a cross-cutting component for other relevant factors of organizational change management. (Author)
This chapter summarizes quantitative information on risks from a wide variety of sources and analyzes it in terms of life expectancy reduction (LER). The data indicate that the greatest common risk in terms of LER, next to remaining unmarried, is cigarette smoking. When all of the effects of energy production and use (e.g., burning coal, reactor accidents) are totalled, the resulting LER is only about 25 days. It is pointed out that the risks to the residents of the Harrisburg area from radiation caused by the Three Mile Island accident is hundreds of thousands of times smaller than their risk from being overweight
Several alternative approaches to address the question open-quotes How safe is safe enough?close quotes are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, in a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made
Issues regarding the management of financial risks in the electric power market were discussed. The nature of the risk was defined for electricity producers, local utilities, traders/dealers, and brokers, each of which are exposed to different types of risks with the exception of credit risk, which is common to all. The main features of options, swaps, CFDs, bilateral financial contracts, futures contracts and the terms of the NYMEX electricity contract were outlined. Basic derivative strategies, the role of the broker, the elements of emissions trading, and trading strategies for consumers were also explained. 3 fig
Sjoeberg, L.; Drottz-Sjoeberg, B.M.
In this paper, risk tolerance with regard to nuclear waste is investigated in two empirical studies. Earlier published data, based on home interviews, purporting to show that a majority of Swedes now would accept a local nuclear waste repository could not be replicated in a mail survey. Interviewer influence and implicit prompting were suggested as explanations of previous results, and a follow-up using implicit and explicit prompts showed that uncertain people were more likely to acquiesce in response to an implicit prompt. The acceptance of a local repository (measured as intention to vote in its favor in a local referendum) could not be well explained by a cost-benefit approach, neither by a risk perception model. Concern about the local community was an important determinant, however, and so were moral aspects. When these aspects were included in a model, about 60 per cent of the variance of risk perception and risk acceptance was accounted for. In further analyses, NIMBY respondents were identified, defined here as people who rejected a local repository in spite of having acknowledged substantial utility of nuclear power. NIMBYs were, however, only in a small minority of all opposition to a local repository. Cultural theory gave only a very small marginal level of explanation of perceived waste risk and acceptance. Few respondents stated that they would accept a local repository if they were to be given financial compensation. This fact may be related to nuclear power issues being conceived as general, rather than personal matters. Those who saw it as politically important also conceived of it in general rather than personal terms. 62 refs
Full Text Available Dvora Pikkel,1 Yael Sara Pikkel Igal,2 Adi Sharabi-Nov,3,4 Joseph Pikkel2,51Risk Management and Patient Safety Unit, Assuta Medical Center, Ramat Hahayal, Tel Aviv, 2Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan University, 3Research Wing, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, 4Tel-Hai Academic College, Upper Galilee, 5Department of Ophthalmology, Ziv Medical Center, Safed, Israel Objective: Risk taking affects human behavior in general and decisions in medicine in particular. We used game theory to assess physicians' risk-taking tendencies. Methods: Physicians were recruited to the study by advertisement. It was explained that they would receive a sum of money for correct prediction of the flipping of a coin. They could try to sell their opportunity to flip the coin for an amount of money they determined. The sum offered by the participants was considered an indicator of risk taking. A demographic questionnaire assessed age, sex, seniority, and area of specialization of the participants. A multivariate analysis assessed associations between risk-taking behavior and, seniority, and specialization. Results: Sixty-two physicians participated, 36 males and 26 females, seniority 1–34 years. Of a possible range of 0–10, the mean score for risk taking was 5.5 – just slightly more than indifference. Negative correlations were found between risk taking and seniority, and between risk taking and age (β=–0.45, P<0.001 for both. Surgeons and anesthesiologists showed greater risk taking than did other physicians (β=0.69, P<0.05; and females less than males, though the latter correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Understanding the tendency of physicians to risk taking may elucidate their decision-making processes and contribute to understanding of causes of adverse events and to the education of physicians. Keywords: risk taking, game theory, seniority, surgeons, anesthesiologists
Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J. [Radiochemistry Consultant Group, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden)
The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs.
Liljenzin, J.O.; Rydberg, J.
The first part of this review discusses the importance of risk. If there is any relation between the emotional and rational risk perceptions (for example, it is believed that increased knowledge will decrease emotions), it will be a desirable goal for society, and the nuclear industry in particular, to improve the understanding by the laymen of the rational risks from nuclear energy. This review surveys various paths to a more common comprehension - perhaps a consensus - of the nuclear waste risks. The second part discusses radioactivity as a risk factor and concludes that it has no relation in itself to risk, but must be connected to exposure leading to a dose risk, i.e. a health detriment, which is commonly expressed in terms of cancer induction rate. Dose-effect relations are discussed in light of recent scientific debate. The third part of the report describes a number of hazard indexes for nuclear waste found in the literature and distinguishes between absolute and relative risk scales. The absolute risks as well as the relative risks have changed over time due to changes in radiological and metabolic data and by changes in the mode of calculation. To judge from the literature, the risk discussion is huge, even when it is limited to nuclear waste. It would be very difficult to make a comprehensive review and extract the essentials from that. Therefore, we have chosen to select some publications, out of the over 100, which we summarize rather comprehensively; in some cases we also include our remarks. 110 refs, 22 figs
Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.
We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.
Ris communication tools in organizations differs in several ways from many of tools and techniques developed for public meetings. The traditional view of risk communication seeks to manage the public outrage ssociated with site-based issues. Organizational risk communication seek...
have adopted tiered "Risk Management Options" (e.g., Florida’s "Global Risk- Based Corrective Action [ RBCA ]"), which recognize the technical...Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council (ITRC) also completed a survey of states for RBCA programs; this survey is available at http://www.itrcweb.org
Peltier, Thomas R
Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.
... Box — Depression, Antidepressants, and the Risk of Suicide. New England Journal of Medicine, 356:2343-2346. xiii http://psychcentral.com/blog/ ... Box — Depression, Antidepressants, and the Risk of Suicide. New England Journal of Medicine, 356:2343-2346.
Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4.......Review of: Risk Management and Simulation / Aparna Gupta. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013, xxix + 491 pp., $99.95(H), ISBN: 978-1-4398-3594-4....
Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.
Dalle, Édouard; Trichard-Salembier, Alexandra; Sobaszek, Annie
The theme of psychosocial risks remains in the workplace. It is therefore essential that all members of a company are made aware of the terminology and specific prevention actions in this field. Distinguishing between the manifestations of these risks and their causes and consequences helps to improve prevention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Discusses current information on the health consequences of smoking and two types of risks: those associated with all smokers and the higher risks associated with other characteristics, such as to pregnant women, teenagers, heavy smokers, those with cardiovascular disease, users of alcohol, and smokers in certain occupations. (SK)
AJRH Managing Editor
lead to an increase in population-wide high-risk sexual behaviour (either because HIV transmission appears to be ... countries reported an increase in high-risk sexual behaviour amongst men who have sex with men ... government and resulted in a fall in the annual number of HIV incidence and a drop in HIV prevalence ...
' in risk perception research covering structure, process, and the social dynamics of risk debates. After that I will present results from a recently completed research project. In this project, we specifically looked into consumers' perceptions of gene technology applied to brewing, and how...... these perceptions related to consumers' attitudes and choice behavior....
This chapter provides several explanations for consumer risk perception. For frequently repeated behavior that is seemingly under their own control, consumers tend to be overly optimistic. This occurs in spite of the general tendency of consumers to be risk averse. Specific dimensions of different
R.A.J. Campbell-Pownall (Rachel); R. Huisman (Ronald)
textabstractIt is widely known that the small but looming possibility of default renders the expected return distribution for financial products containing credit risk to be highly skewed and fat tailed. In this paper we apply recent techniques developed for incorporating the additional risk faced
Park, C.K.; Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.; Tingle, A.; Chun, M.
As part of the NUREG-1150 effort, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has undertaken a risk analysis of Zion Unit 1 adopting the methodology developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining Program. Resulting of the preliminary version of that analysis are reported here. Completion plans for the Zion study are described also
Nguyen, Y.; Noussair, C.N.
Abstract: We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals' facial expressions are monitored with facereading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries.
Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas
In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interfac...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package.......In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...
Nguyen, H.Y.; Noussair, C.N.
We consider the relationship between emotions and decision-making under risk. Specifically, we examine the emotional correlates of risk-averse decisions. In our experiment, individuals’ facial expressions are monitored with face reading software, as they are presented with risky lotteries. We then
Blok, Anders; Jensen, Mette; Kaltoft, Pernille
. In this article, we analyze the relationship between scientific experts and ordinary lay citizens in the context of risks from pesticide usage in Denmark. Drawing on concepts from the "sociology of scientific knowledge" (SSK), we contend that differences in risk perception must be understood at the level...
This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.
Kulk, G.P.; Peters, R.J.; Verhoef, C.
A statistical method is proposed for quantifying the impact of factors that influence the quality of the estimation of costs for IT-enabled business projects. We call these factors risk drivers as they influence the risk of the misestimation of project costs. The method can effortlessly be
Mathematics of Risk Taking. K B Athreya and M G Nadkarni. Keywords. Investor, risk taking, fair game, martingale, random walk, gam- bling, population. (left) K B Athreya is a visiting professor at IMI,. Mathematics Department,. IISc, Bangalore and is also a professor of mathematics and statistics at Iowa State. University ...
Corina Ducu; Mihaela Mãrãcine
The business environment is more competitive than ever and it is characterized by risk, uncertainty, speed and volatility. The concept of risk in business is inextricably linked to the concept of profitability and flexibility. The result of the company (profit or loss) is influenced by unexpected events that accompany its activity.
Summary Various nanomaterials/nanoparticles (NPs) have been used for the development of cosmetic products - a field so-called nanocosmetic formulations. These advanced materials offer some benefits, while their utilization in the cosmetic formulations may be associated with some risks. The main aim of this editorial is to highlight the benefits and risks of the nanomaterials used in the cosmetic products.
Oppedahl, David B.
On November 19, 2013, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago held a conference to explore the key risks faced by agricultural producers and lenders, as well as the risk-management tools available to them, in today’s volatile environment.
Hall, James C.
Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…
Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.
The International EMF project organised by the WHO is now entering its third year. In addition to providing authoritative reviews of the scientific literature on the health effects of exposure to electric and magnetic fields, a key objective of the five year programme is to provide information on the perception, communication and management of risk, and how this relates to electric and magnetic fields. To this end, an International seminar on: Risk perception, risk communication and its application to EMF exposure, was held in Vienna on 22-23 October last year, bringing togehter an array of speakers from around the world to talk about perceptions of risk, how best to communicate risks to the public and present some practical examples. (author)
Virtually any type of nuclear risk is insurable in principle, providing, of course, that the necessary standards of safety and control are met. Some of the risks are of a relatively minor character and no more hazardous than a simple conventional risk. But insurers would not consider as a minor risk anything which involves the use of nuclear fuel or other nuclear materials which are in a critical state or capable of releasing dangerous levels of radioactivity. These would include nuclear reactors or, indeed, any type of assembly which can not be regarded as subcritical. Most insurers would also regard installations involved in the manufacturing, processing and enriching of nuclear fuel, and certainly those concerned with the reprocessing of irradiated fuel and plutonium extraction, as major risks. (HP) [de
Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob
risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...
of allergic reaction in the population. In allergen risk assessment, the emphasis was on the threshold data, and no effort was made on consumption data. Moreover, no pan-European consumption data suitable for allergen risk assessment are available. A procedure for grouping food products automatically across...... countries is proposed. Thus, the allergen risk assessment can be performed cross-nationally and for the correct food group. Then the two probabilistic risk assessment methods usually used were reviewed and compared. First order Monte-Carlo simulations are used in one method , whereas the other one...... Allergen and Allergy Management) aims at developing strategies for food allergies based on evidences. Especially, food allergen risk assessment helps food producers or authorities to make decisions on withdrawing a food product from the market or adding more information on the label when allergen presence...
It has long been known that radon causes lung cancer in humans. Radon, in fact, has been called the greatest environmental health threat facing the nation. Despite the fact that people in the united States generally have a great fear of radiation, their attitude toward radon risk has been one of apathy. Traditional radon risk comparison data have, to say the least, been uninspired as well as unmotivating o the public. This paper, using publicly available data, compares radon risk to other pollutants, diseases and health issues that concern and motivate the public. These health data have never before been assembled together in such a dramatic tabulation, making the radon risk clearly evident and tangible. Results of a nationwide risk opinion survey will also be discussed
Canadian and world experience with accidents and disease is reviewed in order to identify risk information that might extend the societal perspective on health risk beyond daily concerns. The level of exposure to catastrophic risks is compared to that associated with commonly experienced risks. An examination of current and historical levels of Canadian mortality risk is included. The association between mortality risk and Canadian industrial activity is also examined. Some prospects for utilizing these risk benchmarks are then discussed
This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.
Hougaard, Jens Leth; Smilgins, Aleksandrs
Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than th...... of new axioms related directly to the problem of risk capital allocation and show that the Lorenz set satisfies these new axioms in contrast to other well-known coherent methods. Finally, we discuss how to deal with non-uniqueness of the Lorenz set.......Risk capital allocation problems have been widely discussed in the academic literature. We consider a company with multiple subunits having individual portfolios. Hence, when portfolios of subunits are merged, a diversification benefit arises: the risk of the company as a whole is smaller than...... the sum of the risks of the individual sub-units. The question is how to allocate the risk capital of the company among the subunits in a fair way. In this paper we propose to use the Lorenz set as an allocation method. We show that the Lorenz set is operational and coherent. Moreover, we propose a set...
This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements
Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João
The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.
Jens O. Zinn
Full Text Available The special issue "Learning about Risk" draws on the launch conference of the ESRC "Social Contexts and Responses to Risk" network (SCARR held at 28th – 29th January 2005 in Canterbury. The SCARR network is an interdisciplinary network on risk which examines perceptions of and responses to risk in a range of areas, including sexual behaviour and partnering choices, the mass media, faith and ethnicity, pensions and financial planning, industrial pollution, crime, transport, energy policy and environmental hazards. The network's launch conference reflected the interdisciplinary character of risk research including a range of different methods and approaches to risk, directed at diverse objects of interest. The idea of the special issue is to link together this diversity and interdisciplinarity in risk research, and to encourage perspectives that look beyond the boundaries of single disciplines and methodological approaches. The papers in this publication demonstrate the value of insights from different disciplinary backgrounds in this area and point to the opportunities and challenges in the work that remains to be done in drawing these several perspectives more closely together. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601246
A monograph examines the role of risk and risk management in experiential education, particularly stress/challenge programming. Definitions of risk are presented. The importance of risk and stress in experiential education is emphasized. Implications of subjective versus objective risk assessment in adventure education are discussed, with…
... 7100 AD-98 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve... Reserve System (Board) proposes to revise its market risk capital rule (market risk rule) to address... Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are referenced in the Board's market risk rule; to clarify the...
... 7100 AD-98 Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve... adopting a final rule that revises its market risk capital rule (market risk rule) to address recent... and Development (OECD), which are referenced in the Board's market risk rule; to clarify the treatment...
Unnithan, Jaya; Macklis, Roger M.
The use of breast-conserving treatment approaches for breast cancer has now become a standard option for early stage disease. Numerous randomized studies have shown medical equivalence when mastectomy is compared to lumpectomy followed by radiotherapy for the local management of this common problem. With an increased emphasis on patient involvement in the therapeutic decision making process, it is important to identify and quantify any unforeseen risks of the conservation approach. One concern that has been raised is the question of radiation- related contralateral breast cancer after breast radiotherapy. Although most studies do not show statistically significant evidence that patients treated with breast radiotherapy are at increased risk of developing contralateral breast cancer when compared to control groups treated with mastectomy alone, there are clear data showing the amount of scattered radiation absorbed by the contralateral breast during a routine course of breast radiotherapy is considerable (several Gy) and is therefore within the range where one might be concerned about radiogenic contralateral tumors. While radiation related risks of contralateral breast cancer appear to be small enough to be statistically insignificant for the majority of patients, there may exist a smaller subset which, for genetic or environmental reasons, is at special risk for scatter related second tumors. If such a group could be predicted, it would seem appropriate to offer either special counselling or special prevention procedures aimed at mitigating this second tumor risk. The use of genetic testing, detailed analysis of breast cancer family history, and the identification of patients who acquired their first breast cancer at a very early age may all be candidate screening procedures useful in identifying such at- risk groups. Since some risk mitigation strategies are convenient and easy to utilize, it makes sense to follow the classic 'ALARA' (as low as reasonably
Batson, Robert G.
NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.
The author discusses how the concept of risk is perceived differently by the scientist and the man in the street, and mentions the problems that this can sometimes pose for the regulator. He also gives examples of inconsistencies and contradictions in various areas of risk management. He concludes by noting that so-called accidents usually do not occur by chance, but that system or component failures are always due to some form of human error. The objective of risk management is to ensure, by a process of rigorous analysis, that both the probability and consequences of such failures are minimized
and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand......Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...
Heje Pedersen, Lasse
We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...
Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.
Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.
Røder, Martin Andreas; Berg, Kasper Drimer; Loft, Mathias Dyrberg
the absolute risk of BR every year after RP in men with undetectable PSA while accounting for competing risks of death. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3746 patients from Rigshospitalet (Copenhagen, Denmark) and Stanford Urology (Stanford, CA, USA) who underwent RP between 1995 and 2013 were...... is available as a free Android and iOS App. Declining discrimination and accuracy after 7 yr of follow-up is the main limitation. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram can be used as a tool to inform men with undetectable PSA during follow-up after RP about their future risk of BR, and may aid in decisions...
Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: email@example.com; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)
Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.
Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas
We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...
Credit risk is today one of the most intensely studied topics in quantitative finance. This book provides an introduction and overview for readers who seek an up-to-date reference to the central problems of the field and to the tools currently used to analyze them. The book is aimed at researchers...... and students in finance, at quantitative analysts in banks and other financial institutions, and at regulators interested in the modeling aspects of credit risk. David Lando considers the two broad approaches to credit risk analysis: that based on classical option pricing models on the one hand...
This book is organized under the following headings: risk management in the government context; legal and regulatory decrees and directives for managing chemical risk; incentive-based approaches for regulating risk; risk management in the federal system; and traditional approaches and new initiatives for managing chemical risk
... provider before trying to get pregnant. Seeing a prenatal provider before trying to get pregnant or early in the pregnancy can help prevent, or detect and control health risks to the mother and unborn baby ...
Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.
The proliferation risk of a facility depends on the material attractiveness, level of safeguards, and physical protection applied to the material in conjunction with an assessment of the impact of the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment. Proliferation risk is a complementary extension of proliferation resistance. The authors believe a better determination of nuclear proliferation can be achieved by establishing the proliferation risk for facilities that contain nuclear material. Developing a method that incorporates the socioeconomic circumstances and threat environment inherent to each country enables a global proliferation assessment. To effectively reduce the nuclear danger, a broadly based set of criteria is needed that provides the capability to relatively assess a wide range of nuclear related sites and facilities in different countries and still ensure a global decrease in proliferation risk for fissile material (plutonium and highly enriched uranium)
...) contribute to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women...
Most members of the public view the risks of nuclear power as uniquely hazardous. A survey in 1993 found that Canadians rank nuclear waste as the eleventh highest risk to their health. The trouble is that the public are not simply misinformed; rather, they view risk as something different from the product of probability of occurrence of an event multiplied by the measure of its harmful consequences. Among the 30 to 40 factors that influence public perception of risk, or acceptance of technology, are some that the scientific and technical community has hitherto failed to heed. Many of these factors can in fact be accommodated in the design, development and public presentation of nuclear projects. Such an accommodation of the public's views would involve dealing with factors like voluntariness, controllability, reversibility, equity and fairness, benefits, and trust in institutions. 9 refs
Former Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Ruckleshaus traces the changes in underlying assumptions that set the major course of environmental policies. While the more gross forms of pollution are under control, the level of controversy about environmental protection has not diminished. The controversy now focuses on the carcinogenic risk to human health from toxic chemicals. Because this risk is expressed in projections based on scientific findings that are often ambiguous, environmental policymakers are pressed to find ways to manage risks that are still inadequately understood. Ruckleshaus argues that effective environmental risk management requires that government agencies be allowed to set priorities and have greater flexibility to resolve problems in a local context, with local public participation. True public involvement demands a new degree of candor and a willingness to confront the economic and social trade-offs of sensible decisions. 1 table.
Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas
We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... (SES), that is, its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases in the institution’s leverage and its marginal expected shortfall (MES), that is, its losses in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. We demonstrate empirically the ability...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....
Brachner, A.; Grosche, B.
A broad survey is given of risk factors for neoplasms. The main carcinogenic substances (including also ionizing radiation and air pollution) are listed, and are correlated with the risk factors for various cancers most frequently explained and discussed in the literature. The study is intended to serve as a basis for a general assessment of the incidence of neoplasms in children, and of cancer mortality in the entire population of Bavaria in the years 1983-1989, or 1979-1988, respectively, with the principal idea of drawing up an environment-related health survey. The study therefore takes into account not only ionizing radiation as a main risk factor, but also other risk factors detectable within the ecologic context, as e.g. industrial installations and their effects, refuse incineration plants or waste dumps, or the social status. (orig./MG) [de
Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Houben, Geert; Hattersley, Sue
Regulatory thresholds for allergenic foods have not yet been developed. This means that public and industrial risk managers do not have regulatory thresholds to decide if a content or level of contamination is acceptable or not. For a long time, data have been inadequate to define safe thresholds...... for food allergens. More and more challenge data from food allergic patients are now available, and this opens the possibility to perform more advanced food allergy safety and risk assessments. These can be used to inform risk management decisions and ultimately to form the basis for regulatory thresholds....... In the chapter we describe three different approaches for safety/risk assessment based on no/low observed adverse effect level, benchmark dose, or probabilistic modeling. These methods are illustrated by examples from real life and the possibilities and limitations are discussed....
Edwards, Beatrice J
Osteoporosis is a silent disease until fractures occur, patient recognition is the greatest clinical challenge. Although more than 20 million women in the US are estimated to have established osteoporosis the majority are not appropriately identified. Bone densitometry is the current gold standard for diagnosis of osteoporosis; but may not be feasible or cost-effective to recommend for all postmenopausal women. Therefore, questionnaires incorporating risk factors have been developed to aid the clinician in identifying women with osteoporosis. We will review Qfracture, CAnadian Risk for Osteoporosis Calculator (CAROC), the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Index (SCORE), the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Index (ORAI), the Osteoporotic Self-assessment Tool (OST), ABONE, and the United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations. Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Experience has shown that reactors can be operated safely. Accidents have occurred, but the probability of physical health detriment to members of the public has been negligible. Methods for the quantitative evaluation of the probabilities of serious accidents are described, and some results are quoted which show that the estimated frequency of harmful effects is small when compared with other risks already accepted by society. Attempts have been made to justify the acceptance of nuclear reactor risks by relating them to the benefits which are derived from reactor operation and comparing them quantitatively with the risks from alternative methods of deriving the same benefits. This approach takes no account of the perceptions which people have of risk
Nuclear facilities operate under the constant risk that radioactive materials could be accidentally released off-site and cause injuries to people or damages to the property of others. Management of this nuclear risk, therefore, is very important to nuclear operators, financial stakeholders and the general public. Operators of these facilities normally retain a portion of this risk and transfer the remainder to others through an insurance mechanism. Since the nuclear loss exposure could be very high, insurers usually assess their risk first-hand by sending insurance engineers to conduct a nuclear insurance inspection. Because a serious fire can greatly increase the probability of an off-site release of radiation, fire safety should be included in the nuclear insurance inspection. This paper reviews essential elements of a facility's fire safety program as a key factor in underwriting nuclear third-party liability insurance. (author)
Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan
This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.
Risk analysis plays a key role in the implementation of an architecture. Early definition of the situations, : processes, or events that have the potential for impeding the implementation of key elements of the ITS : National Architecture is a critic...
Mossman, K.L.; Hill, L.T.
A major contraindication of radiodiagnostic procedures is pregnancy. Approximately 1% of all pregnant women are given abdominal x-rays during the first trimester of pregnancy. Evaluation of radiation exposure should involve consideration of the types of examinations performed and when performed, as well as radiation dose and risk estimation. This information is then weighed against other possible risks of the pregnancy as well as personal factors. In the authors' experiences, radiation exposures usually result in doses to the embryo of less than 5 cGy (rad); the resulting radiation risks are usually small compared with other risks of pregnancy. Procedures to minimize diagnostic x-ray exposure of the fetus are also discussed
Swartz, H.M.; Reichling, B.A.
In summary, the following practical guidelines for mammography are offered: 1. Any woman, regardless of age, with signs or symptoms that indicate breast cancer should have a mammogram. 2. A woman who has a high risk for breast cancer (e.g., strong family history, no pregnancy before 30 years of age, or a previous breast cancer) should receive periodic screening examinations, including mammography. 3. Periodic screening for asymptomatic women over the age of 50 is indicated. 4. The value of periodic screening for asymptomatic women who are not considered to be at high risk and are under the age of 50 years is not established. Such screening should be carried out only when useful data can be collected on the benefits and risks of this procedure. 5. For any individual woman, the risk of inducing breast cancer by mammography is very low. 6. Mammograms should be made only with modern equipment and techniques designed to provide optimum information with minimal dose
The Volpe Center has used three sources of datathe Federal Railroad Administrations required accident reports, locomotive video, and U.S. Census datato investigate common risk factors for railroad trespassing incidents, the leading cause of ...
Caffarelli, C; Stringari, G; Pajno, G B; Peroni, D G; Franceschini, F; Dello Iacono, I; Bernardini, R
Perioperative anaphylactic as well as anaphylactoid reactions can be elicited by drugs, diagnostic agents, antiseptics, disinfectants and latex. In some individuals, allergic reactions occur in the absence of any evident risk factor. Previous history of specific safe exposure to a product does not permit to exclude the risk of having a reaction. We have systematically reviewed characteristics in the patient's history or clinical parameters that affect the risk of developing reactions during anesthesia. Evidence shows that patients with previous unexplained reaction during anesthesia are at risk for perioperative allergic reactions. An allergic reaction to an agent is associated with previous reaction to a product that is related with the culprit agent. Multiple surgery procedures, professional exposure to latex and allergy to fruit are associated with an increased frequency of latex allergy. It has been shown that in some instances, allergic perioperative reactions may be more common in atopic patients and in females.
At the Finance Committee of March 2005, following a comment by the CERN Audit Committee, the Chairman invited the Management to prepare a document on exchange risk management policy. The Finance Committee is invited to take note of this document.
RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.
The main focus of this thesis lies on description of Risk Management in context of Energy Trading. The paper will predominantly discuss Value at Risk and its modifications as a main overall indicator of Energy Risk.
This report outlines the major publications between 1976 and 1981 that have contributed to the evolution of the way in which radiation risks (cancer and hereditary birth defects) are assessed. The publications include the latest findings of the UNSCEAR, BEIR and ICRP committees, epidemiological studies at low doses and new assessments of the doses received by the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report is not a detailed critique of those publications, but it highlights the impact of their findings on risk assessment
D. A. Anichkov
Full Text Available A role of menopause as a cardiovascular risk factor is reviewed. Menopause influence on the cardiovascular system may be mediated by body fat re-allocation, metabolic, hemodynamic and pro-inflammatory changes. Besides, estrogen deprivation has a direct effect on the arterial wall. Lifestyle modification, lipid-lowering and antihypertensive treatment should be considered for cardiovascular risk reduction in postmenopausal women.
In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.
Blok, Anders; Jensen, Mette; Kaltoft, Pernille
of social identities. On the basis of qualitative interviews with citizens and experts, respectively, we focus on the multiple ways in which identities come to be employed in actors' risk accounts. Empirically, we identify salient characteristics of "typical" imagined experts and lay-people, while arguing...... that these conceptions vary identifiably in-between four groups of citizens and experts. On the basis of our findings, some implications for bridging the lay-expert discrepancy on risk issues are sketched out....
Gabriela ANGHELACHE; Ana Cornelia OLTEANU
Losses resulting from operational risk events from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market participants that do not fit a simple classification scheme. Taking into account past losses (ex. Barings, Daiwa, etc.) we can say that operational risk is a major financial losses in the banking sector, although until recently have been underestimated, considering that they are generally minor, note setting survival of a bank.
Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a s...
Full Text Available Losses resulting from operational risk events from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market participants that do not fit a simple classification scheme. Taking into account past losses (ex. Barings, Daiwa, etc. we can say that operational risk is a major financial losses in the banking sector, although until recently have been underestimated, considering that they are generally minor, note setting survival of a bank.
Giovanni Immordino; Mario Padula
This paper investigates the association between discounting and risk of expropriation and provides the theoretical conditions that make a positive association consistent with rationality. Moreover, using a national representative sample and a representative sample of the 50+ in eleven European countries, we show that discounting increases with expropriation risk. The two surveys give direct measures of discount rate as well as measures derived from households consumption decisions and provide...
As one of the most progressive users of risk assessment in decision making, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in a position to play an important role in influencing the development of standard government wide policies for the application of risk assessment in decision making. The NRC, with the support of the nuclear industry, should use the opportunity provided by its experience with risk assessment to actively encourage the adoption of standard national and international health-based safety goals and at the same time accelerate its own efforts to implement the safety goals it has already developed for itself. There are signs of increased recognition of the need for consistency and coherence in the application of risk assessment in government decision making. The NRC and the nuclear industry have recently taken a great step toward establishing a consistant and coherent risk assessment-based culture in the US nuclear industry. As a result of Generic Letter 88-20, which asks each commercial nuclear power plant licensee to perform an individual plant examination by September 1992, for the first time a risk assessment characterizing initiating events in each plant will exist
From the beginnings of the peaceful utilization of nuclear energy, the principles of prevention and optimization have greatly limited the emission of radioactive substances. In this way, the radiation exposure associated with emissions from nuclear power plants during normal operation has been kept low compared with natural radiation exposure and its variance. This also applies to the local public in the vicinities of such plants. The present health hazard to the public arising from ionizing radiation is only a small fraction of the man-made risk to which the public is exposed in this country. This is also due to the fact that radiation protection employs the principle of prevention, which has been laid down in legal regulations. In this respect, the concepts and criteria developed in radiation protection for evaluation, limitation and optimization may be useful examples to other areas of safety at work and environmental protection. The acceptance of nuclear power is decisively influenced by the remaining residual risk of accidents. Extremely careful inspection and supervision of the technical safety of such plants is indispensable to prevent major accidents. The German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants has made an important contribution to this end. It is being continued. However, risk research must always be accompanied by risk comparison to allow numerical risk data to be evaluated properly and important features to be distinguished from unimportant ones. (orig.) [de
Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.
The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de
Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long
Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.
Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life
Gallagher, Brian P; Case, Pamela J; Creel, Rita C; Kushner, Susan; Williams, Ray C
... identification of risks associated with the development of a software-dependent project. Since then, this method also has been used in the Software Risk Evaluation process to identify risks associated with the development of software-intensive systems...
Langendorfer, Stephen; And Others
This article identifies the major risks faced by young children in aquatic programs, outlines several methods for managing risk factors, and discusses the steps involved in implementing a risk-management system. (IAH)
... in the Right Direction Health Risks of Being Overweight Overweight and obesity may increase the risk of ... What kinds of health problems are linked to overweight and obesity? Excess weight may increase the risk ...
... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...
The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered
Alcoholism - risks; Alcohol abuse - risks; Alcohol dependence - risks; Risky drinking ... Beer, wine, and liquor all contain alcohol. If you are drinking any of these, you are using alcohol. Your drinking patterns may vary, depending on who you are with ...
Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne
Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk o...
Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.
Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose
The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...
Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the â€˜top 8-12â€™ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (â€˜top 8-12â€™ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.
Petushek, Erich J.; Ward, Paul; Cokely, Edward T.; Myer, Gregory D.
Background: Simple observational assessment of movement is a potentially low-cost method for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury screening and prevention. Although many individuals utilize some form of observational assessment of movement, there are currently no substantial data on group skill differences in observational screening of ACL injury risk. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to compare various groups’ abilities to visually assess ACL injury risk as well as the associated strategies and ACL knowledge levels. The hypothesis was that sports medicine professionals would perform better than coaches and exercise science academics/students and that these subgroups would all perform better than parents and other general population members. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 428 individuals, including physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, strength and conditioning coaches, exercise science researchers/students, athletes, parents, and members of the general public participated in the study. Participants completed the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ) and answered questions related to assessment strategy and ACL knowledge. Results: Strength and conditioning coaches, athletic trainers, physical therapists, and exercise science students exhibited consistently superior ACL injury risk estimation ability (+2 SD) as compared with sport coaches, parents of athletes, and members of the general public. The performance of a substantial number of individuals in the exercise sciences/sports medicines (approximately 40%) was similar to or exceeded clinical instrument-based biomechanical assessment methods (eg, ACL nomogram). Parents, sport coaches, and the general public had lower ACL-IQ, likely due to their lower ACL knowledge and to rating the importance of knee/thigh motion lower and weight and jump height higher. Conclusion: Substantial cross-professional/group differences in visual ACL
Two widely-recognized committees, UNSCEAR and BEIR, have reevaluated their estimates of genetic risks from radiation. Their estimates for gene mutations are based on two different approaches, one being the doubling-dose approach and the other being a new direct approach based on an empirical determination of the amount of dominant induced damage in the skeletons of mice in the first generation following irradiation. The estimates made by these committees are in reasonably good agreement and suggest that the genetic risks from present exposures resultng from nuclear power production are small. There is room for much improvement in the reliability of the risk estimates. The relatively new approach of measuring the amount of induced damage to the mouse skeleton shows great promise of improving knowledge about how changes in the mutation frequency affect the incidence of genetic disorders. Such findings may have considerable influence on genetic risk estimates for radiation and on the development of risk estimates for other less-well-understood environmental mutagens. (author)
Asami, M. [Keio Univ., Tokyo (Japan)
It is recently, that is, in and after the 1980s that socio-scientific approaches began to be made to studies on `risk`. It started to be made clear that the progress of the scientific technology does not necessarily bring about good news to man, and obvious estrangement has begun to appear between scientific evaluation and social evaluation of risk. The subject of risk communication (RC) study is to tackle a proposition whether the estrangement will continue to exist as estrangement or the estrangement can be made smaller by any means. This paper explains the recent trend of the study. For example, as for how each individual thinks about risk, that is, the risk perception, a new framework is trially being constructed by introduction of the quantitative method using psychometrics. A duty of RC is to serve to bridge the gap between scientific technology and society which are controlled by values which are incompatible with each other. Therefore, RC will be more and more important. 15 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.
Giacobbe, F.; Monica, L.; Geraci, D.
The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ("low", "middle" and "high" level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.
Swierenga, S.H.; Gilman, J.P.; McLean, J.R.
Inorganic metals and minerals for which there is evidence of carcinogenicity are identified. The risk of cancer from contact with them in the work place, the general environment, and under conditions of clinical (medical) exposure is discussed. The evidence indicates that minerals and metals most often influence cancer development through their action as cocarcinogens. The relationship between the physical form of mineral fibers, smoking and carcinogenic risk is emphasized. Metals are categorized as established (As, Be, Cr, Ni), suspected (Cd, Pb) and possible carcinogens, based on the existing in vitro, animal experimental and human epidemiological data. Cancer risk and possible modes of action of elements in each class are discussed. Views on mechanisms that may be responsible for the carcinogenicity of metals are updated and analysed. Some specific examples of cancer risks associated with the clinical use of potentially carcinogenic metals and from radioactive pharmaceuticals used in therapy and diagnosis are presented. Questions are raised as to the effectiveness of conventional dosimetry in accurately measuring risk from radiopharmaceuticals. 302 references
Giacobbe, F; Monica, L; Geraci, D
The development and use of nanomaterials has grown widely in the last years. Hence, it is necessary to carry out a careful and aimed risk assessment for the safety of the workers. The objective of this research is a specific assessment model finalized to the workplaces where the personnel work manipulating nanoparticles. This model mainly takes into account the number of exposed workers, the dimensions of particles, the information found in the safety data sheets and the uncertainties about the danger level coming from the exposition to nanomaterials. The evaluation algorithm considers the normal work conditions, the abnormal (e.g. breakdown air filter) and emergency situations (e.g. package cracking). It has been necessary to define several risk conditions in order to quantify the risk by increasing levels ('low', 'middle' and 'high' level). Each level includes appropriate behavioural procedures. In particular for the high level, it is advisable that the user carries out urgent interventions finalized to reduce the risk level (e.g. the utilization of vacuum box for the manipulation, high efficiency protection PPE, etc). The model has been implemented in a research laboratory where titanium dioxide and carbon nanotubes are used. The outcomes taken out from such specific evaluation gave a risk level equal to middle.
Van der Velden, U.; Abbas, F.; Armand, S.; Loos, B. G.; Timmerman, M. F.; Van der Weijden, G. A.; Van Winkelhoff, A. J.; Winkel, E. G.
Objective: To identify risk factors, risk predictors and risk determinants for onset and progression of periodontitis. Material and Methods: For this longitudinal, prospective study all subjects in the age range 15-25 years living in a village of approximately 2000 inhabitants at a tea estate on
Rothmann, M J; Ammentorp, J; Bech, M
their fracture risk significantly higher than their peers. No correlation between self-perceived risk and absolute risk was found. The ordered logistic regression model showed a significant association between high self-perceived fracture risk and previous fragility fracture, parental hip fracture, falls, self...... and falls. Risk communication is a key element in fracture prevention and should have greater focus on less well-known risk factors. Furthermore, it is important to acknowledge that risk perception is not based solely on potential risk factors but is also affected by experiences from everyday life......SUMMARY: This Danish cross-sectional study (n=20,905) showed that women aged 65-81 years generally underestimated fracture risk compared to absolute risk estimated by the FRAX® algorithm. Significant association was found between risk factors (e.g., previous fracture, parental hip fracture...
Holewijn, S.; den Heijer, M.; Kiemeney, L.A.; Stalenhoef, A.F.H.; de Graaf, J.
Cardiovascular risk stratification could be improved by adding measures of atherosclerosis to current risk scores, especially in intermediate-risk individuals. We prospectively evaluated the additive value of different non-invasive risk markers (both individual and combined) for gender-specific
... may choose to model all material price risks. The 2009 revisions also add a stressed Value-at-Risk (Va... proposal would generate a risk-based capital requirement for a specific covered position or portfolio of covered positions that is not commensurate with the risks of the covered position or portfolio. In these...
Heje Pedersen, Lasse
We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....
Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita
for prediction purposes, as measured until now in the literature, is at best questionable in schoolchildren, adolescents and adults. That is not to say these additional factors should not be assessed to help understand the strength of their associations with the disease experience in a particular patient...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...
Insurance for large nuclear installations covers mainly four types of risk: third party liability which in accordance with the nuclear conventions, is borne by a nuclear operator following an incident occurring in his installation or during transport of nuclear substances; material damage to the installation itself, which precisely is not covered by third party liability insurance; machinery breakdown, i.e. accidental damage or interruption of operation. Only the first category must be insured. In view of the magnitude of the risk, nuclear insurance resorts to co-insurance and reinsurance techniques which results in a special organisation of the nuclear insurance market, based on national nuclear insurance pools and on the Standing Committee on Atomic Risk of the European Insurance Committee. Conferences of the chairmen of nuclear insurance pools are convened regularly at a worldwide level. (NEA) [fr
Diseases of the mother during pregnancy can indicates X-ray examination for diagnosis and treatment. Radiologist and the GP should be aware of the possible damage to the fetus from radiation and to assess the actual risk and benefit of X-ray tests during pregnancy. The doses received in the uterus are small and the risk for the developing embryo or fetus is small for most diagnostic X-ray investigations. Dose of 100 mGy embryo radiation is regarded as the highest limit, above which a therapeutic abortion should be considered. The risk of radiation induced carcinogenesis exists during entire period of pregnancy. It is 2-3 times higher for developing embryo and fetus, rather than for adults. Diagnostic X-ray tests for pregnant women that are not urgent should be delayed. Keywords: radiation and pregnancy, prenatal radiation exposure, radiation fetal syndrome [bg
Gejl, Michael; Starup-Linde, Jakob; Scheel-Thomsen, Jan
AIMS: Type 2 diabetes (DM) increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. We investigated the effects of antidiabetic drugs on the composite endpoint (CE) of ischemic heart disease, heart failure or stroke in DM patients. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study. Cases were DM patients who......% CI: 16.88-24.12), neuropathy (OR=1.39, 95% CI: 1.05-1.85) and peripheral artery disease (OR=1.31, 95% CI: 1.02-1.69) increased the risk of CE. Biguanides (OR=0.62 95% CI; 0.54-0.71) and liraglutide (OR=0.48 95% CI; 0.38-0.62) significantly decreased the risk of CE as did statin treatment (OR=0.63, 95...
Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection
Arnold, Robert W
In 2003, the American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus (AAPOS) published a set of risk factors for amblyopia. The intent was to promote uniformity of reporting and development in screening. Because this prevalence is not yet known, this meta-analysis is an attempt to estimate it. Major community preschool eye examination studies were reviewed and AAPOS cut-offs estimated. The approximate prevalence of anisometropia is 1.2%, hyperopia is 6%, astigmatism is 15%, myopia is 0.6%, strabismus is 2.5%, and visual acuity less than 20/40 is 6%. The mean combined prevalence is 21% ± 2% compared to a prevalence of amblyopia 20/40 and worse of 2.5%. Knowing risk factor prevalence simplifies validation efforts. Amblyopia screening with a risk factor sensitivity less than 100% is expected and desirable. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.
Aven, E.; Lovas, K.; Osmundsen, P.
Portfolio theory indicates that risk management should take place at the group level. Hedging at the project level or in the individual business areas may lead to suboptimal results. However, the efficiency of a profit centre depends on its management's being able to influence factors that are crucial to the unit's financial results. Price hedging could be one such factor. In the wider perspective, this constitutes part of the balancing between centralisation and decentralisation. This article covers important elements of risk management and incentive design. It goes on to discuss the balancing of overall risk management at the group level and incentive design in profit centres and corporate units. Throughout the article, the oil industry serves as a case. (author)
Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.
An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)
While companies from small neutral states are frequently more vulnerable to the risks of doing business with or under dictatorial regimes than are companies from great powers, they are not helpless. This article shows that the strategy that both Danish and Swedish companies selected according...... to their economic cooperation with Germany and German occupied territories were largely dictated by the choices that were made in the 1930s. The case of the Danish construction company Christiani & Nielsen in the period 1941–1945 shows that Scandinavian companies were not just passive elements in a bigger political...... game but were capable, to a certain degree, of promoting their own interests. This article reveals that the political imperative is not only a matter of political risk but also of political opportunity. The history of Christiani & Nielsen offers a useful case of the political risks and fiscal...
Costa, Tamara Goularte
The objective of this research is to demonstrate the risks and consequences of exposure to dental X-ray. The methodology used was the survey of bibliographic literature on this matter. First, we tried to understand the operation and characteristics of dental X-rays. Afterwards, we tried to know about the risks that this procedure offers to workers and patients. And concluded with the consequences of such exposure. The results showed that dental x-rays only offer risks in prolonged exposure, can affect the worker or patient to pathologies such as cancer or a life-time decreased due to the stochastic effect. Therefore, radiological protection standards must be respected and practised. (author)
The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. To...
Portela, Josmael; Figueira, Rosania Lucia
The risk premium and insalubrity have been widely discussed in the legal universe/labor. The social and economic impacts interfere on the right of the professional exposed to ionizing radiation to have or not additional rights. Due to the large accidents, with world repercussion, which occurred in recent times, involving workers undergoing these radiation, these professionals are receiving special attention by the competent bodies on the right or not to risk premium and insalubrity. The professional who operates equipment that emit ionising radiation, or those working directly with radioisotopes are undoubtedly under imminent risk, even if they complied with all safety requirements, thus deserving a more careful analysis by our lawyers with respect to receive additional percentages. Recent decisions of higher Courts begin to consolidate a more just and logical reasoning on the subject
Annweiler, Cedric; Ayers, Emmeline; Barzilai, Nir; Beauchet, Olivier; Bennett, David A.; Bridenbaugh, Stephanie A.; Buchman, Aron S.; Callisaya, Michele L.; Camicioli, Richard; Capistrant, Benjamin; Chatterji, Somnath; De Cock, Anne-Marie; Ferrucci, Luigi; Giladi, Nir; Guralnik, Jack M.; Hausdorff, Jeffrey M.; Holtzer, Roee; Kim, Ki Woong; Kowal, Paul; Kressig, Reto W.; Lim, Jae-Young; Lord, Susan; Meguro, Kenichi; Montero-Odasso, Manuel; Muir-Hunter, Susan W.; Noone, Mohan L.; Rochester, Lynn; Srikanth, Velandai; Wang, Cuiling
Objectives: Our objective is to report prevalence of motoric cognitive risk syndrome (MCR), a newly described predementia syndrome characterized by slow gait and cognitive complaints, in multiple countries, and its association with dementia risk. Methods: Pooled MCR prevalence analysis of individual data from 26,802 adults without dementia and disability aged 60 years and older from 22 cohorts from 17 countries. We also examined risk of incident cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination decline ≥4 points) and dementia associated with MCR in 4,812 individuals without dementia with baseline Mini-Mental State Examination scores ≥25 from 4 prospective cohort studies using Cox models adjusted for potential confounders. Results: At baseline, 2,808 of the 26,802 participants met MCR criteria. Pooled MCR prevalence was 9.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.2%–11.2%). MCR prevalence was higher with older age but there were no sex differences. MCR predicted risk of developing incident cognitive impairment in the pooled sample (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.0, 95% CI 1.7–2.4); aHRs were 1.5 to 2.7 in the individual cohorts. MCR also predicted dementia in the pooled sample (aHR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5–2.3). The results persisted even after excluding participants with possible cognitive impairment, accounting for early dementia, and diagnostic overlap with other predementia syndromes. Conclusion: MCR is common in older adults, and is a strong and early risk factor for cognitive decline. This clinical approach can be easily applied to identify high-risk seniors in a wide variety of settings. PMID:25031288
Caruntu Genu Alexandru
Full Text Available In economic and financial activity, risk is an inherent financial decisions, encountered in daily agenda of managers of companies. Unexpected changes in the price of a product development not only affect the financial results of a company, but can cause even bankruptcy. In fact, the nature of financial decisions involve uncertainty. Financial decisions are made based on cash flows under future contracts, which are par excellence incerte.Activitatea an enterprise that holds any weight in the industry is subject to risks, since it can not predict with certainty different components of its outcome (cost, quantity, price and operating cycle (purchase, processing, sales.
Abbey, F.; Hall, S.F.
The paper describes in summary form preliminary a risk-orientated safety study of the present conceptual reference design of the UK Commercial Demonstration Fast Reactor (CDFR). Emphasis is placed on possible severe in-reactor accidents, but some consideration is also given to accidents which do not affect the reactor core directly. The description includes both the methodology and results of the study, which should be seen as providing information of the overall safety of CDFR in general terms, pointing to areas where further work is needed and determining areas of work which should be given priority, rather than as a fully developed risk assessment. (author)
Jens O. Zinn
Full Text Available For a long time theorising has underestimated the importance of affect and emotion in decision making and the management of risk and uncertainty. In relatively one-sided interpretations emotions were often interpreted as threats for rational decision making, and could be triggered by uncertainties, which would go along with social change. Recent interdisciplinary research has shown the importance to acknowledge the more complex link between reasoning and emotions. The article outlines different perspectives on emotion in risk research of economics, psychology and sociology and argues for further research. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0601293
Since 1. January 1991 the Environment Liability Law is in force. It aims at compensating and avoiding environmental damages. This booklet presents terminology and liability preconditions; liability exclusions and limitations; causality proof; extent of compensation obligations; financial security provisions; insurability problems. The political legislative intent is correct, however, a collective concept replacing liability will be necessary: In those case where the state cannot guarantee environmental protection, and legislation cannot take care of indemnification, another basis for realizable titles to compensation have to be created. Also dealt with are the particularities for nuclear risks - liability for installations pursuant to the Paris Convention; other liability; financial security in connection with nuclear liability risk. (HSCH) [de
''Chemical risks'' can only be determined with accurate figures in a few extraordinary cases. The difficulties lie, as has been shown by the example of the Flixborough catastrophe, mostly in the determination of the probabilities of occurrence. With a rough semiquantitative estimate of the potential hazards and the corresponding probabilities we can predict the risks with astonishing accuracy. Statistical data from incidents in the chemical industry are very useful, and they also show that ''chemical catastrophes'' are only to a very small extent initiated by uncontrolled chemical reactions. (orig.) [de
David I. Philippov
Full Text Available The article highlights the issues of operational risk management methodology in commercial bank. The main sources of operational risks, risk indicators, operational risk assessment techniques.
Alexander, Carol; Sarabia, José María
This article develops a methodology for quantifying model risk in quantile risk estimates. The application of quantile estimates to risk assessment has become common practice in many disciplines, including hydrology, climate change, statistical process control, insurance and actuarial science, and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates has long been recognized. Our work is particularly important in finance, where quantile estimates (called Value-at-Risk) have been the cornerstone of banking risk management since the mid 1980s. A recent amendment to the Basel II Accord recommends additional market risk capital to cover all sources of "model risk" in the estimation of these quantiles. We provide a novel and elegant framework whereby quantile estimates are adjusted for model risk, relative to a benchmark which represents the state of knowledge of the authority that is responsible for model risk. A simulation experiment in which the degree of model risk is controlled illustrates how to quantify Value-at-Risk model risk and compute the required regulatory capital add-on for banks. An empirical example based on real data shows how the methodology can be put into practice, using only two time series (daily Value-at-Risk and daily profit and loss) from a large bank. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications to nonfinancial risks. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Cathryn Clarke Murray
Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.
The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds
Williams, Pamela R D; Paustenbach, Dennis J
In the field of risk assessment, characterizing the nature and magnitude of human health or environmental risks is arguably the most important step in the analytical process. In this step, data on the dose-response relationship of an agent are integrated with estimates of the degree of exposure in a population to characterize the likelihood and severity of risk. Although the purpose of risk characterizations is to make sense of the available data and describe what they mean to a broad audience, this step is often given insufficient attention in health risk evaluations. Too often, characterizations fail to interpret or summarize risk information in a meaningful way, or they present single numerical estimates of risk without an adequate discussion of the uncertainties inherent in key exposure parameters or the dose-response assessment, model assumptions, or analytical limitations. Consequently, many users of risk information have misinterpreted the findings of a risk assessment or have false impressions about the degree of accuracy (or the confidence of the scientist) in reported risk estimates. In this article we collected and integrated the published literature on conducting and reporting risk characterizations to provide a broad, yet comprehensive, analysis of the risk characterization process as practiced in the United States and some other countries. Specifically, the following eight topics are addressed: (1) objective of risk characterization, (2) guidance documents on risk characterization, (3) key components of risk characterizations, (4) toxicity criteria for evaluating health risks, (5) descriptors used to characterize health risks, (6) methods for quantifying human health risks, (7) key uncertainties in risk characterizations, and (8) the risk decision-making process. A brief discussion is also provided on international aspects of risk characterization. A number of examples are presented that illustrate key concepts, and citations are provided for
Webb, Edward M.
Discusses risk management for colleges' cocurricular activities. Discusses tort liability, contributory negligence, and assumption of risk. Provides six concrete steps for managing risks responsibly and professionally: adopting an educational mission statement, assigning risk to others, establishing safety standards, training club advisors,…
This brief article describes risk calculators that are based on populations of Pakistani ethnicity, and can be used for risk stratification in Pakistani and other South Asian clinics. Covering the QRISK, QKidney, QThrombosis, QFracture and QCancer risk calculators, it uses examples to explain how these can be utilized for risk stratification.
The difficulties involved in measuring risk, the differences between risk and the perception of risk, and the growing trend for irrationalism, all contribute to the problem of educating the public about the risks from nuclear power. This paper looks at these issues from a journalistic perspective. (author)
Houtman, I.L.D.; Douwes, M.; Zondervan, E.; Jongen, M.
This article, based on recent literature, will identify, define and discuss new and emerging OSH-risks together with the driving forces behind these risks. Emerging risks will be described as being related to physical load and musculoskeletal disorders [MSDs], psychosocial risks, and dangerous
Butrin, Andrey; Vikulov, Vladimir
Article is devoted to risk management of supply chain. The authors considered indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers.
manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…
Brouwers, M.M.; Feitz, W.F.J.; Roelofs, L.A.J.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.; Gier, R.P.E. de; Roeleveld, N.
Despite being one of the most common congenital defects in boys, the etiology of hypospadias remains largely unknown. In this case-referent study, we evaluated a wide spectrum of potential risk factors for hypospadias. Cases were identified from the hospital information system, and referents were
Mech, L. David; Ballard, Warren; Bangs, Ed; Ream, Bob
Implementing the proposal set forth by Licht and colleagues (BioScience 60: 147–153) requires restricting wolves to tiny "islands," areas that are magnitudes smaller than the ranges of most wolf populations. Wolves naturally have large ranges; restricting their spatial needs increases the risk of wolves escaping, exacerbating public relations and political and legal problems.
... their behaviors may get them into trouble. Health Problems Related to Alcohol The effects of long-term alcohol use on the brain may be life-long. Drinking also creates a higher risk of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem. Drinking during puberty can also change hormones in ...
The transport of radioactive material has long been a subject of emotive controversy. For a realistic assessment of the risks involved, however, they must be seen in the context of the transport of any hazardous cargoes, especially those which are energy-producing products
How is science represented by the media? Who defines what counts as a risk, threat or hazard, and why? In what ways do media images of science shape public perceptions? What can cultural and media studies tell us about current scientific controversies? "Media, Risk and Science" is an exciting exploration into an array of important issues, providing a much needed framework for understanding key debates on how the media represent science and risk. In a highly effective way, Stuart Allan weaves together insights from multiple strands of research across diverse disciplines. Among the themes he examines are: the role of science in science fiction, such as "Star Trek"; the problem of 'pseudo-science' in "The X-Files"; and how science is displayed in science museums. Science journalism receives particular attention, with the processes by which science is made 'newsworthy' unravelled for careful scrutiny. The book also includes individual chapters devoted to how the media portray environmental risks, HIV-AIDS, food s...
... Prevention VIH En Español Get Tested Find an HIV testing site near you. Enter ZIP code or city Follow HIV/AIDS CDC HIV CDC HIV/AIDS See RSS | ... Email Updates on HIV Syndicated Content Website Feedback HIV Risk and Prevention Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share ...
Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)
Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; Van Praag, Mirjam
Theory predicts that entrepreneurs have distinct attitudes toward risk and uncertainty, but empirical evidence is mixed. To better understand these mixed results, we perform a large “lab-in-the-field” experiment comparing entrepreneurs to managers (a suitable comparison group) and employees (n D ...
Crowder, Martin J
If something can fail, it can often fail in one of several ways and sometimes in more than one way at a time. There is always some cause of failure, and almost always, more than one possible cause. In one sense, then, survival analysis is a lost cause. The methods of Competing Risks have often been neglected in the survival analysis literature. Written by a leading statistician, Classical Competing Risks thoroughly examines the probability framework and statistical analysis of data of Competing Risks. The author explores both the theory of the subject and the practicalities of fitting the models to data. In a coherent, self-contained, and sequential account, the treatment moves from the bare bones of the Competing Risks setup and the associated likelihood functions through survival analysis using hazard functions. It examines discrete failure times and the difficulties of identifiability, and concludes with an introduction to the counting-process approach and the associated martingale theory.With a dearth of ...
James A. Ker
Aug 20, 2014 ... Introduction. Cardiovascular disease remains a major cause of global mortality and morbidity. Atherosclerosis is the main underlying cause in the majority of cardiovascular disease events. Traditional independent risk factors for car diovascular disease include age, abnormal lipid levels, elevated blood ...
https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/014/01/0066-0079. Keywords. Investor; risk taking; fair game; martingale; random walk; gambling; population. Author Affiliations. K B Athreya1 2 M G Nadkarni3. Department of Mathematics Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa; I M I, Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Science, ...
Vessey, M.P.; Gray, M.
A series of essays in honour of Sir Richard Doll is presented. Chapters cover the preventability of cancer, geography, smoking, diet, occupation, radiation, infections and immune impairment, exogenous and endogenous hormones, other drugs, prevention through legislation and by education and cancer risks and prevention in the Third World. The chapter on radiation has been indexed separately. (UK)
dr. A.F. de Wild
One of the most difficult choices that organizations face is the choice to spend resources today to reduce the probability or negative impact of events that may happen tomorrow. In hindsight, it seems to be a waste to spend organizational resources on reducing the risk of low probability events that
A comparison is made between the various ways of power generation in the Netherlands and the hazards attached to them. Tables are presented of fuels used, the quantities used per annum and in the course of the last 20 years, accidents and pollution types and percentages, as well as the toxicity and waste disposal risks. (Auth.)
Thörnqvist, Tomas; Vardardottir, Arna
, participation in other risky asset markets increases, the share of wealth allocated to risky investments decreases, the riskiness of the portfolio decreases, and idiosyncratic risk decreases. We also study the effect of underdiversification on household welfare and find that women exert the in uence...
Full Text Available The paper considers risk in the context of the main characteristics of non-classical epistemology. It states that non-classical epistemology is characterized by transformation, according to which the major priority of cognitive activity shifts the focus from the present to the past. In this situation a subject is keen not on what he or she has learnt but on what can be learnt. Truth being a crucial criterion of scientific knowledge is becoming of less priority, while risk is becoming more and more significant and acts as one of the major epistemology measurements. Risk is gaining the status of epistemological phenomenon, which shows a growing degree of uncertainty as a cognitive process background and the necessity for a subject to learn the world (make decisions under the conditions of uncertainty degree strengthening. The author states that risk is a comprehensive notion and it obtains a base value for all other aspects of its application, specifically, in the role of epistemological phenomenon.
... risk? » Related A-Z Topics Diabetes Pregnancy Loss Preeclampsia and Eclampsia NICHD News Spotlights Podcast: NICHD launches PregSource to learn more about pregnancy News Release: NIH Begins Large HIV Treatment Study in Pregnant Women Spotlight: Zika Research after ...
Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.
The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de
The reasons for the current widespread arguments between designers of advanced technological systems like, for instance, nuclear power plants and opponents from the general public concerning levels of acceptable risk may be found in incompatible definitions of risk, in differences in risk perception and criteria for acceptance, etc. Of importance may, however, also be the difficulties met in presenting the basis for risk analysis, such as the conceptual system models applied, in an explicit and credible form. Application of modern information technology for the design of control systems and human-machine interfaces together with the trends towards large centralised industrial installations have made it increasingly difficult to establish an acceptable model framework, in particular considering the role of human errors in major system failures and accidents. Different aspects of this problem are discussed in the paper, and areas are identified where research is needed in order to improve not only the safety of advanced systems, but also the basis for their acceptance by the general public. (author)
Ruh, H.; Seiler, H.
The aim of the workshops which was reported in this volume, was the interpretation and evaluation of catastrophic risks for society in an interdisciplinary dialogue between representation of society, ethics, as well as natural science and technology. (author) figs., tabs., refs
ambiguous, insurance firms are reluctant to market coverage. The oae of nulear power provides a graphic example. Neither risk managers of nuclear...Inauiry, 20, 1-9. Alliance of American Insurers, American Insurance Association, National Association of Independent Insurers, Mutual Atomic Energy
Ale BJM; Golbach GAM; Goos D; Ham K; Janssen LAM; Shield SR; LSO
A so-called benchmark exercise was initiated in which the results of five sets of tools available in the Netherlands would be compared. In the benchmark exercise a quantified risk analysis was performed on a -hypothetical- non-existing hazardous establishment located on a randomly chosen location in
Harrison, K.; Hoberg, G. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada)
Case studies of seven controversial substances suspected of causing cancer in humans were analysed: the pesticides Alar and Alachor, urea-formaldehyde foam insulation, radon gas, dioxin, saccharin, and asbestos. Government regulation of toxic substances in Canada and the U.S. were examined. The strengths and weaknesses of each country`s approach were weighted according to five criteria: stringency and timeliness of the regulatory decision, balancing of risks and benefits by decision makers, opportunities for public participation, and the interpretation of science in regulatory decision making. Dramatically different approaches to regulatory science in the two countries were highlighted. The Canadian approach is exemplified by closed decision making, case-by-case review relying heavily on expert judgement, and limited public debate. In contrast, the American approach is characterized by publication of lengthy rationales for regulatory decisions, reliance on standardized procedures for risk assessment, and controversy surrounding the interpretation of scientific evidence. The general conclusion was that both the Canadian and U.S.approaches offer uncertain risks and benefits; the key question is how the risks compare with the benefits, and which consequences are valued the most. Extensive bibliographic notes are provided for each chapter.
After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de
Kriticos, Darren J.; Brunel, Sarah; Ota, Noboru; Fried, Guillaume; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Panetta, F.D.; Prasad, T.V.R.; Shabbir, Asad; Yaacoby, Tuvia
Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the 'Swiss Cheese' nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the
Carlson, T.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de; Dekeling, R.P.A.
The workshop looked at the assessment of risk to aquatic animals exposed to anthropogenic sound. The discussion focused on marine mammals given the worldwide attention being paid to them at the present time, particularly in relationship to oil and gas exploration, ocean power, and increases in ship
The Colver Power Project in Cambria County, PA, looked good in nearly all aspects, but lenders had concerns about startup problems encountered by earlier waste coal circulating fluidized bed projects. Nevertheless, a closer look at the operating history of the earlier plants showed possible risks could be handled
Rao Sahib, P.; Gu, X.
This paper introduces imperfect information,learning,and risk aversion in a two sided matching model.The modelprovides a theoreticalframework for the com- monly occurring phenomenon of cohabitation followed by marriage,and is con- sistent with empirical findings on these institutions.The paper has
Huang, Xiaoping; Stapleton, Richard Christopher
We add an independent unfair background risk to higher-order risk-taking models in the current literature and examine its interaction with the main risk under consideration. Parallel to the well-known concept of risk vulnerability, which is defined by Gollier and Pratt (Econometrica 64:1109–1123, 1996), an agent is said to have a type of higher-order risk vulnerability if adding an independent unfair background risk to wealth raises his level of this type of higher-order risk aversion. We der...
Defossez, A C; Fassin, D
Nearly 99% of maternal deaths in the world each year occur in developing countries. New efforts have recently been undertaken to combat maternal mortality through research and action. The medical causes of such deaths are coming to be better understood, but the social mechanisms remain poorly grasped. Maternal mortality rates in developing countries are difficult to interpret because they tend to exclude all deaths not occurring in health care facilities. The countries of Europe and North America have an average maternal mortality rate of 30/100,000 live births, representing about 6000 deaths each year. The developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America have rates of 270-640/100,000, representing some 492,000 deaths annually. For a true comparison of the risks of maternal mortality in different countries, the risk itself and the average number of children per woman must both be considered. A Nigerian woman has 375 times greater risk of maternal death than a Swedish woman, but since she has about 4 times more children, her lifetime risk of maternal death is over 1500 times greater than that of the Swedish woman. The principal medical causes of maternal death are known: hemorrhages due to placenta previa or retroplacental hematoma, mechanical dystocias responsible for uterine rupture, toxemia with eclampsia, septicemia, and malaria. The exact weight of abortion in maternal mortality is not known but is probably large. The possible measures for improving such rates are of 3 types: control of fertility to avoid early, late, or closely spaced pregnancies; effective medical surveillance of the pregnancy to reduce the risk of malaria, toxemia, and hemorrhage, and delivery in an obstetrical facility, especially for high-risk pregnancies. Differential access to high quality health care explains much of the difference between mortality rates in urban and rural, wealthy and impoverished areas of the same country. The social determinants of high maternal mortality
2004, COSO published 'Enterprise Risk Management Framework', 2009, SASAC issued the 'central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines' to promote risk management within the formal state-owned enterprises in medium and large. Nuclear Group, which risk management in all branches to carry out the project homeopathic, and A Ⅱ will carry out risk management program as the first unit has accumulated more experience. This article from the perspective of internal control, based on the company's risk management practices carried out to try for the nuclear power enterprise risk management audit to describe and propose new ideas. Which expounds the significance of risk management, audit, risk management audit of the ways and means, for practical application of risk management audit of a representative summary of the issues and the ways and means to solve the problem of forward-looking recommendations. (authors)
Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland
. The information generated through conducting a risk assessment, such as a risk estimate, ranking of risks, identification of key controlling or risk-generating factors, or highlighting of data gaps,can assist governments in their role of setting national policies, criteria or providing public health advice......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...
Full Text Available Every business organisation involves some element of risk. Unmitigated risks can result in lost opportunity, financial losses, loss of reputation, or loss of the right to operate in a jurisdiction. Like any other risk type, understanding business risks is quite important for every business to garner profits instead of facing losses. A business risk is a universal risk type; this means that every business in the world faces business risks. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the different categories of business risk in order to create the appropriate strategies. The aim of this paper is to describe the most important categories of business risks and to make sure that every type of risk receives equal treatment and consideration.
Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were
Drobot, Elena; Klevleeva, Aziza
The particularities of risk-management system implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of risk-management system, evaluate effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of risk-management system in customs control are described, as well. Particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management.
Wang, Yitong; Keller, L. Robin; Simon, Jay
Risk plays a central role in decision making. Accordingly, risk has been a popular research topic for more than four decades. Finding a generic definition of risk is hard, since this term is used in many areas such as economics, political science, management science, and medical research. However, one thing in common is that risk is always related to both the negative outcomes and uncertainty. In addition, we know that risk is normally subjective and constructed ...
Medina, Patricia [Los Alamos National Laboratory
The goal of planning risk management is to make everyone involved in a program aware that risk should be a consideration in the design, development, and fielding of a system. Risk planning is a tool to assess and mitigate events that might adversely impact the program. Therefore, risk management increases the probability/likelihood of program success and can help to avoid program crisis management and improve problem solving by managing risk early in the acquisition cycle.
Houtman, I.L.D.; Douwes, M.; Zondervan, E.; Jongen, M.
This article, based on recent literature, will identify, define and discuss new and emerging OSH-risks together with the driving forces behind these risks. Emerging risks will be described as being related to physical load and musculoskeletal disorders [MSDs], psychosocial risks, and dangerous substances [e.g. chemical and biological substances]. In the following paragraphs some of the consequences of these risks for specific worker groups will be identified. In the final paragraph the gaps i...
In master's thesis I discuss the field of risk management process in construction projects from the viewpoint of a building contractor. I present risk overview, previous research in this area and a new approach to risk analysis in construction by project components. The proposed methodology for risk management in a construction company, described in this thesis is based on the proposed checklist. Proposed checklist includes all identified risks in terms of building contractor and ...
Evan Gatev; Philip Strahan
We offer a new explanation of loan syndicate structure based on banks' comparative advantage in managing systematic liquidity risk. When a syndicated loan to a rated borrower has systematic liquidity risk, the fraction of passive participant lenders that are banks is about 8% higher than for loans without liquidity risk. In contrast, liquidity risk does not explain the share of banks as lead lenders. Using a new measure of ex-ante liquidity risk exposure, we find further evidence that syndica...
To optimally demonstrate the value of risk management, our actions must show the benefits. The American Society for Healthcare Risk Management (ASHRM) board needs to provide support through tools and resources. ASHRM members must show through their actions the value of risk management. And ASHRM members need to show the organization where actions and activities should be focused in the future. Actions show the value of enterprise risk management. © 2018 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.
This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results
Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.
Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.
The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287
In developmental psychopathology it almost goes without saying that contextual risk factors do not occur in isolation and that it is the combination of various risk factors that portends numerous negative child outcomes. Despite this, the body of literature that examines the relation between multiple risk exposure and child psychopathology using a cumulative risk approach is still relatively small. Even when studies use a cumulative risk approach they rarely test properly whether the relation between cumulative risk and child psychopathology is linear or nonlinear, with consequences for both theory development and intervention design: if cumulative risk impacts problem behavior in a positively accelerated exponential manner, for instance, it means that exposure to multiple risk is especially difficult to manage as problem behavior accelerates at a critical level of risk. Furthermore, few studies have actually examined factors that protect from negative outcomes in those exposed to cumulative risk and even fewer have explored cumulative protection in relation to cumulative risk. On the other hand, there is the view that a cumulative risk approach at least implicitly assumes that risk factors are, in essence, interchangeable. According to this view, the importance of testing for specificity should not be underestimated. Finally, the renewed interest in the role of neighborhood risk in child development has initiated a lively debate as to whether contextual risk should be operationalized at the family or the area level. In this letter I discuss these issues, and offer some suggestions as to how future research can address them.
Allan, G Michael; Nouri, Faeze; Korownyk, Christina; Kolber, Michael R; Vandermeer, Ben; McCormack, James
Risk estimates for the same patient can vary substantially among cardiovascular risk calculators and the reasons are not fully explained. We compared the relative risk increases for consistent risk factors changes across different cardiovascular risk calculators. Five clinicians independently selected 16 calculators providing absolute risk estimations. Hypothetical patients were generated using a combination of seven risk factors [age, gender, smoking, blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), total cholesterol and diabetes] dichotomized to high and low risk, generating 2(7) patients (128 total). Relative risk increases due to specific risk factors were determined and compared. The 16 selected calculators were from six countries, used 5- and 10-year predictions, and estimated CVD or coronary heart disease risk. Across the different calculators for non-diabetic patients, changing age from 50 to 70 produced average relative risk increases from 82 to 395%, gender (female to male) 35-225%, smoking status 31-118%, systolic blood pressure (120-160 mmHg) 16-124%, total cholesterol (4-7 mmol/L) 51-302% and HDL (1.3-0.8 mmol/L) 27-133%. Similar results were found among diabetic patients. Some calculators appeared to have consistently higher relative risk increases over multiple risk factors. Cardiovascular risk calculators weigh the same risk factors differently. For each risk factor, the relative risk increase from the calculator with the highest increase was generally three to eight times greater than the relative risk increase from the calculator with lowest increase. This likely contributes to some of the inconsistency in risk calculator estimation. It also limits the use of risk calculators in estimating the benefits of therapy.
Risk communication is the process of informing people about hazards. Like all communication, communicating risk is a two-way exchange in which you inform the target community about possible hazards, but also gather information about those affected by the risk. The purpose of risk...
Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen
A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision
The paper concentrates on the analysis of semivariance (SV) as a market risk measure for market risk analysis of mean-semivariance (MSV) portfolios. The advantage of MSV over variance as a risk measure is that MSV provides a more logical measure of risk than the MV method. In addition, the relationship of the SV with the lower partial movements is discussed. A spatial risk model is proposed as a basis of risk assessment for short-term energy markets. Transaction costs and other practical constraints are also included. A case study is provided to show the successful application of the model. (author)
Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)
Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided
This paper gives the list of contributions to Eurosafe 2001 which was organised around two round tables on the first day and five seminars on the second day. The first round table dealt with the technical, organisational and societal aspects of risk management aimed at the prevention of accidents in nuclear power plants. The second round table focused on radiological risks from the normal operation of nuclear installations. Special consideration has been given to the involvement of stakeholders. The five seminars were held in order to provide opportunities for comparing experiences and learning about recent activities of IRSN, GRS and their partners in the European Union and Eastern Europe: - Safety assessment and analysis of nuclear installations; -Nuclear safety research; -Environment and radiation protection; - Waste management; - Nuclear material security. (author)
In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing....... Nonetheless, there seems to be a discrepancy between model predictions and the accumulating microbiological data. For example, a recent study in the Netherlands showed that model predictions on the efficacy of “testing and scheduling” of broiler flocks as a control strategy, could not be confirmed...
This paper gives the list of contributions to Eurosafe 2001 which was organised around two round tables on the first day and five seminars on the second day. The first round table dealt with the technical, organisational and societal aspects of risk management aimed at the prevention of accidents in nuclear power plants. The second round table focused on radiological risks from the normal operation of nuclear installations. Special consideration has been given to the involvement of stakeholders. The five seminars were held in order to provide opportunities for comparing experiences and learning about recent activities of IRSN, GRS and their partners in the European Union and Eastern Europe: - Safety assessment and analysis of nuclear installations; -Nuclear safety research; -Environment and radiation protection; - Waste management; - Nuclear material security. (author)
Full Text Available The internationalization of financial flows and banking and the rapid development of markets have changed the financial sector, causing him to respond with force and imagination. Under these conditions, the concerns of financial and banking institutions, rating institutions are increasingly turning to find the best solutions to hedge risks and maximize profits. This paper aims to present a number of advantages, but also limits the Merton model, the first structural model for modeling credit risk. Also, some are extensions of the model, some empirical research and performance known, others such as state-dependent models (SDM, which together with the liquidation process models (LPM, are two recent efforts in the structural models, show different phenomena in real life.
Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.
This thesis investigates unpredictability in contemporary disaster and emergency management. The thesis traces the shift from risk thinking towards the resilience approach that has recently characterized the field. It asks how resilience manifests itself in practice and discusses how to incorporate...... this approach into preparedness planning to improve the ability of socio-technological systems to cope with unexpected disruptions. Those working in the field understand resilience as a broad umbrella term linked to risk thinking and concerned with flexible systems that are able to absorb and adapt...... resilience and complexity discourses in an attempt to conjoin the two concepts. This broad discussion leads into a case study of resilience thinking in contemporary disaster and emergency management: preparedness planning for long-term disruptions of the Øresund Bridge between Denmark and Sweden. Through...
Public perceptions of risk will probably always be unsatisfying to a scientist. Public perceptions are formed by the actions of institutions which have goals other than formation of an informed public opinion, such as the schools, the media, business and the government. In this environment, it seems unrealistic to expect public opinion to reflect scientific realities. The talk will focus on the media as an opinion-former and will discuss several non-nuclear issues as illustrations: plague in New Mexico, Toxic Shock Syndrome, and Injuries as a Public Health Problem. Ultimately however, we are confronted with two wonderfully complex matters: can risk be adequately expressed or measured in universally comprehensible or broadly acceptable terms; and the mysterious movements of the public and collective mind
Krause Hansen, Hans
This article investigates the emerging engagement of private actors and specifically Western corporations in international anti-corruption, drawing on Foucauldian studies of governmentality. It explores this engagement as governing practices that have emanated quite independently from the inter......-state system commonly understood to be at the core of the anti-corruption regime. It demonstrates how corporate anti-corruption ties in with a relatively new way of perceiving corruption. In this framing, anti-corruption comes out as risk management, which is latched on to notions of corporate social...... responsibility and business ethics. Moreover, the constitution of corruption risk relates to the rise of new actors and networks engaged in a wider business of anti-corruption, including commercial and hybrid actors that supply corporations with managerial instruments, benchmarks for best practice, rankings...
Zamore, Stephen; Ohene Djan, Kwame; Alon, Ilan
This article provides a comprehensive review of scholarly research on credit risk measurement during the last 57 years applying bibliometric citation analysis and elaborates an agenda for future research. The bibliography is compiled using the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web...... of Science (WOS) database and includes all articles with citations over the period 1960–2016. Specifically, the review is carried out using 1695 articles across 72 countries published in 442 journals by 2928 authors. The findings suggest that credit risk research is multifaceted and can be classified...... into six streams: (1) defaultable security pricing, (2) default intensity modeling, (3) comparative analysis of credit models, (4) comparative analysis of credit markets, (5) credit default swap (CDS) pricing, and (6) loan loss provisions. The article contributes through synthesizing and identifying...
Accidents of low probability and severe consequences represent the same risk as accidents of higher probability and less severe consequences. This fact is not accepted by the population. People can visualize consequences, but do not understand probabilities. People fear the large-scale accident much more than the many small ones. If political acceptance of a decision is to be obtained, it is much more important to be able to limit the consequences than to reduce probabilities. It must also be realized that unlimited safety cannot be obtained. We can pay for greater safety and greater security. But resources are limited, and therefore there are also limits to how far we can go in combatting risks
In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)
The utility of the societal risk approach to the design and evaluation of safeguards systems is examined with particular reference to the comparison of the relative effectiveness of various safeguards mechanisms. Research on threat evaluation is reviewed, and the need for further research on consequences is discussed in terms of the extension of the definition of the safeguards objective from system capability to societal consequences and the establishment of public confidence. 14 references
Supply chains are increasingly global, often reaching to developing regions. The media pressure brand owners to be responsible, but a product is only as sustainable as the practices of all the companies involved in manufacturing it are. It’s not enough that the brand owner acts responsibly; sustainable practices have to reach component and raw material suppliers upstream. Image risk has often been recognized as reason for investing in sustainability. In the supply chain context, supplier m...
Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion
Flyvbjerg, Bent; Bruzelius, Nils; Rothengatter, Werner
the borderlines of private and public involvement, four specific measures to increase accountability are suggested and detailed: (1) Transparency, (2) Performance specifications, (3) Explication of regulatory regimes, and (4) Involvement of risk capital. The decision on whether or not to build a multi......-billion dollar fixed link across the Baltic Sea connecting Scandinavia and Germany is used as an illustrative case. However, the approach developed is likely to be relevant for other major projects in other countries as well....
Corrado, P.G. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)
In low-trust, high-concern situations, 50% of your credibility comes from perceived empathy and caring, demonstrated in the first 30 s you come in contact with someone. There is no second chance for a first impression. These and other principles contained in this paper provide you with a basic level of understanding of risk communication. The principles identified are time-tested caveats and will assist you in effectively communicating technical information.
In low-trust, high-concern situations, 50% of your credibility comes from perceived empathy and caring, demonstrated in the first 30 s you come in contact with someone. There is no second chance for a first impression. These and other principles contained in this paper provide you with a basic level of understanding of risk communication. The principles identified are time-tested caveats and will assist you in effectively communicating technical information
Over the last three decades, the capital asset pricing model has occupied a central and often controversial place in most corporate finance analysts’ tool chests. The model requires three inputs to compute expected returns – a riskfree rate, a beta for an asset and an expected risk premium for the market portfolio (over and above the riskfree rate). Betas are estimated, by most practitioners, by regressing returns on an asset against a stock index, with the slope of the regression being the b...
Dumitrache Ramona; Dumitrache Cosmin; Popescu Corina; Varsami Anastasia
Over the past decades there has been a continuous increase in the public concern about general risk issues. The consequence of this trend is that whenever a catastrophic accident occurs - and receives media coverage - there is an immediate political and public demand for actions to prevent the same type of catastrophe in the future. Many of the past improvements in safety of marine structure have been triggered by disasters but there is a change in this trend nowadays. The maritime society is...
The purpose of this document is to show a method for the fast recalculation of the PSA. To avoid the information loose, it is necessary to simplify the PSA models, or at least reorganize them. The method, introduced in this document, require that preparation, so we try to show, how to do that. This document is an introduction. This is the starting point of the work related to the development of the risk indicators. In the future, with the application of this method, we are going to show an everyday use of the PSA results to produce the indicators of the core damage risk. There are two different indicators of the plant safety performance, related to the core damage risk. The first is the core damage frequency indicator (CDFI), and the second is the core damage probability indicator (CDPI). Of course, we cannot describe all of the possible ways to use these indicators, rather we will try to introduce the requirements to establish such an indicator system and the calculation process
James, P.; Thompson, M.
Like many social scientists, we attribute public unwillingness to accept certain low probability risks not to 'irrationality' but rather to the everyday application of qualitative as well as quantitative criteria. Just as most people buying a video or hi-fi do not base their decision solely on price or performance data but also consider such intangibles as design and the reputation of the manufacturer, individuals faced with a given risk take into account not merely the probability of harm but also the credibility and trustworthiness of whoever generates the information and manages the safety and other precautions which ensure its accuracy. To analyse these qualitative dimensions we utilise the grid/-group methodology developed by the cultural anthropologist Mary Douglas, and her co-workers. Douglas identifies four basic forms of society and four associated 'thought worlds' which serve to legitimise and reproduce them. Differences in concepts of human cognition, time and many other variables between the different thought worlds are so profound that they can be regarded as different kinds of rationality. The acceptability of risks is partially determined by the extent to which they support or threaten the existence of the different societies. (author)
Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.
The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established
Cunha, Raquel Dalledone Siqueira da; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de
Risk Communication has shown its importance in the elaboration of emergency plans in the Chemical industry. In the 90's, the UNEP developed the APELL (Awareness and Preparedness for Emergency at Local Level) plan, a risk management methodology used by dangerous chemical facilities. The methodology comprises the commitment of both Government and the community located in the risk area in the development of the emergency plan. In the nuclear sector, there is no similar methodology developed so far. However, establishing a communication channel between the nuclear segment and the community is essential. In Brazil, the construction of Angra 3 and the RMB (Multi Purpose Reactor) project stand as nuclear initiatives that improve the importance of a good communication to the public. Security issues of these projects are natural sources of concernment to the public, which is aggravated by events such as the Fukushima disaster. Without an effective communication about what means the presence of nuclear plants and reactors in a specific area, the interested public will only have an alarmist vision of the subject, given by those against these facilities. (author)
From the mid 1980s onwards HIV/AIDS became a new subject of work reform, with a range of experts producing new knowledges on work and the worker in regard to HIV/AIDS and workplace organizations putting in place workplace HIV/AIDS policies and programmes. To date, much of the discussion in sociology in regard to such policies and programmes has focused on the issue of effectiveness and has been concerned with making such policy 'better'. In this article however, and with particular reference to sexuality, I suggest that such approaches fail to register that workplace HIV/AIDS policies concern new conceptualizations of worker identities. Specifically, I suggest that such policies may be viewed as part of an assemblage of work reforms which are reworking worker identities as risk identities. Thus I argue that workplace HIV/AIDS policies and programmes are best understood as risk rationalities. Further, I consider the alignment between such rationalities and neo-liberal modes of rule, and in particular consider the ways in which workplace HIV/AIDS policies render both HIV/AIDS and sexuality calculable and governable in terms of notions of risk, self-responsibility and self-management.
Findings revealed that certain measures like: risk reduction/prevention, risk avoidance, risk sharing, risk retention, risk modification, etc. could be adopted to reduce the impact of risk on production. The paper posits that if the proper risk control measures and effective planning techniques are applied, the impact of risk ...
Landis, Wayne G
...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...
See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.
This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles
Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...
Prevalence, risk factors and risk perception of tuberculosis infection among medical students and healthcare workers in Johannesburg, South Africa. A van Rie, K McCarthy, L Scott, A Dow, WDF Venter, WS Stevens ...
Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...