WorldWideScience

Sample records for polar ice prediction

  1. Accelerated Prediction of the Polar Ice and Global Ocean (APPIGO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    cover in March (left to right) from NSIDC/ SSMI climatology, HYCOM-CESM, POP-CESM and HYCOM-CICE at year 20 of the simulation. (Bottom) Same as above for...September. All three experiments show a reasonable ice extent compared with the climatological SSMI ice extent produced by the NSIDC in the...HYCOM- CICE (Fig. 3, bottom). Despite a better coverage, the ice cover extent of HYCOM-CESM is less than of POP-CESM or the SSMI climatology. 7

  2. Predicting Clear-Sky Reflectance Over Snow/Ice in Polar Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yan; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Arduini, Robert F.; Hong, Gang; Minnis, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Satellite remote sensing of clouds requires an accurate estimate of the clear-sky radiances for a given scene to detect clouds and aerosols and to retrieve their microphysical properties. Knowing the spatial and angular variability of clear-sky albedo is essential for predicting clear-sky radiance at solar wavelengths. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project uses the nearinfrared (NIR; 1.24, 1.6 or 2.13 micrometers), visible (VIS; 0.63 micrometers) and vegetation (VEG; 0.86 micrometers) channels available on the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to help identify clouds and retrieve their properties in both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. Thus, it is critical to have reliable distributions of clear-sky albedo for all of these channels. In CERES Edition 4 (Ed4), the 1.24-micrometer channel is used to retrieve cloud optical depth over snow/ice-covered surfaces. Thus, it is especially critical to accurately predict the 1.24-micrometer clear-sky albedo alpha and reflectance rho for a given location and time. Snow albedo and reflectance patterns are very complex due to surface texture, particle shapes and sizes, melt water, and vegetation protrusions from the snow surface. To minimize those effects, this study focuses on the permanent snow cover of Antarctica where vegetation is absent and melt water is minimal. Clear-sky albedos are determined as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA) from observations over all scenes determined to be cloud-free to produce a normalized directional albedo model (DRM). The DRM is used to develop alpha(SZA=0 degrees) on 10 foot grid for each season. These values provide the basis for predicting r at any location and set of viewing & illumination conditions. This paper examines the accuracy of this approach for two theoretical snow surface reflectance models.

  3. Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-05

    esnon, Tsfcn), this subroutine computes variables needed for the vertical thermodynamics (hin, hsn, qin, qsn, Tin, Tsn , Tsf). I/O: stdout Calls...layer thickness real hin_init- initial value of hin real hsn_init- initial value of hsn real qsn- snow enthalpy real Tsn - snow temperature real...m2) real qsn- snow enthalpy real Tsn - internal snow temperature real Tsf- ice/snow surface temperature, Tsfcn real fsensn- surface downward

  4. Polar bears and sea ice habitat change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is an obligate apex predator of Arctic sea ice and as such can be affected by climate warming-induced changes in the extent and composition of pack ice and its impacts on their seal prey. Sea ice declines have negatively impacted some polar bear subpopulations through reduced energy input because of loss of hunting habitats, higher energy costs due to greater ice drift, ice fracturing and open water, and ultimately greater challenges to recruit young. Projections made from the output of global climate models suggest that polar bears in peripheral Arctic and sub-Arctic seas will be reduced in numbers or become extirpated by the end of the twenty-first century if the rate of climate warming continues on its present trajectory. The same projections also suggest that polar bears may persist in the high-latitude Arctic where heavy multiyear sea ice that has been typical in that region is being replaced by thinner annual ice. Underlying physical and biological oceanography provides clues as to why polar bear in some regions are negatively impacted, while bears in other regions have shown no apparent changes. However, continued declines in sea ice will eventually challenge the survival of polar bears and efforts to conserve them in all regions of the Arctic.

  5. Global thermodynamics of a polar ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, C.J. van der; Oerlemans, J.

    1984-01-01

    In this paper, the global characteristics of a polar ice sheet are investigated. When looking at a drainage system as a whole, conservation of heat yields a very simple functional relation. Coupling this relation to an equation describing the large-scale dynamics of a drainage system makes it

  6. Promoting Diversity Through Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (Polar ICE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell, J. D.; Hotaling, L. A.; Garza, C.; Van Dyk, P. B.; Hunter-thomson, K. I.; Middendorf, J.; Daniel, A.; Matsumoto, G. I.; Schofield, O.

    2017-12-01

    Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (ICE) is an education and outreach program designed to provide public access to the Antarctic and Arctic regions through polar data and interactions with the scientists. The program provides multi-faceted science communication training for early career scientists that consist of a face-to face workshop and opportunities to apply these skills. The key components of the scientist training workshop include cultural competency training, deconstructing/decoding science for non-expert audiences, the art of telling science stories, and networking with members of the education and outreach community and reflecting on communication skills. Scientists partner with educators to provide professional development for K-12 educators and support for student research symposia. Polar ICE has initiated a Polar Literacy initiative that provides both a grounding in big ideas in polar science and science communication training designed to underscore the importance of the Polar Regions to the public while promoting interdisciplinary collaborations between scientists and educators. Our ultimate objective is to promote STEM identity through professional development of scientists and educators while developing career awareness of STEM pathways in Polar science.

  7. South polar permanent CO2 ice cap presentation in the Global Mars Multiscale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazel-Rastgar, Farahnaz

    2018-02-01

    The atmospheric influence caused by the Martian permanent south CO2 ice cap is examined to improve the Global Mars Multiscale Model (GM3) to see if it can significantly improve the representation of south polar meteorology. However, the seasonal carbon dioxide ice in the polar regions is presented in the surface ice simulation by the Global Mars Multiscale Model but the model does not produce a permanent south CO2 ice cap, and the physics code must modify to capture the realistic physical such as ice process detail; probably makes a bias in terms of total CO2 ice and meteorological processes in the model aside from ice formation. The permanent south CO2 ice cap in the model can significantly improve the representation of south polar meteorology for example in predicted surface temperatures, surface pressures, horizontal and zonal winds over the south cap and possible initiation of dust storms at south polar region during the southern summer period.

  8. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, D.C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, G.M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  9. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

    2010-12-16

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

  10. Nimbus-7 SMMR Polar Gridded Radiances and Sea Ice Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains gridded brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations for both polar regions. It spans the period from October 1978 through August 1987,...

  11. Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings

  12. Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-01-01

    1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are

  13. Sodium, Iodine and Bromine in Polar Ice Cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maffezzoli, Niccolo

    with a description of the main analytic al techniques used to measure ionic and elemental species in ice cores. Chapter 4 introduces sodium, bromine and iodine with a theoretical perspective and a particular focus on their connections with sea ice. Some of the physical and chemical properties that are believed......Abstract: This research focuses on sodium, bromine and iodine in polar ice cores, with the aim of reviewing and advancing their current understanding with additional measurements and records, and investigating the connections of these tracers with sea ice and their feasibility as sea ice indicators....... Modern Arctic sea ice decline clearly yields further motivation in this direction, as the reconstruction of past sea ice conditions could provide clues to the mechanisms in play nowadays and in the future projections. Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectroscopy (ICP-MS) has been applied...

  14. Polar Ice Sounding and Geomagnetics, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Data addresses ice thickness and related geomagnetics generated during remote sensing flights over Antarctica and Greenland. Analog records are oscilloscope traces...

  15. Polar Sea Ice Monitoring Using HY-2A Scatterometer Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Li

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A sea ice detection algorithm based on Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis is developed to segment sea ice and open water for the Ku-band scatterometer onboard the China’s Hai Yang 2A Satellite (HY-2A/SCAT. Residual classification errors are reduced through image erosion/dilation techniques and sea ice growth/retreat constraint methods. The arctic sea-ice-type classification is estimated via a time-dependent threshold derived from the annual backscatter trends based on previous HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice extent. The extent and edge of the sea ice obtained in this study is compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS sea ice concentration data and the Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for verification, respectively. Meanwhile, the classified sea ice type is compared with a multi-sensor sea ice type product based on data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT and SSMIS. Results show that HY-2A/SCAT is powerful in providing sea ice extent and type information, while differences in the sensitivities of active/passive products are found. In addition, HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice products are also proved to be valuable complements for existing polar sea ice data products.

  16. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. L. Stern

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology – the cycle of biological events – is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979–2014 mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from −3 to −9 days decade−1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade−1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of −7 to −19 days decade−1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June–October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from −1 to −9 percent decade−1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in

  17. Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Harry L.; Laidre, Kristin L.

    2016-09-01

    Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology - the cycle of biological events - is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979-2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from -3 to -9 days decade-1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade-1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of -7 to -19 days decade-1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June-October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from -1 to -9 percent decade-1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

  18. On the Predictability of Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

    We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

  19. DMSP SSM/I Daily and Monthly Polar Gridded Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DMSP SSM/I Daily and Monthly Polar Gridded Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations in polar stereographic projection currently include Defense Meteorological Satellite...

  20. Microstructural Location and Composition of Impurities in Polar Ice Cores, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains measurements of impurities and ions in three polar ice cores: the Vostok 5G ice core and the Byrd ice core from Antarctica, and the Greenland...

  1. Perihelion precession, polar ice and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steel, Duncan

    2013-03-01

    The increase in mean global temperature over the past 150 years is generally ascribed to human activities, in particular the rises in the atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution began. Whilst it is thought that ice ages and interglacial periods are mainly initiated by multi-millennial variations in Earth's heliocentric orbit and obliquity, shorter-term orbital variations and consequent observable climatic effects over decadal/centurial timescales have not been considered significant causes of contemporary climate change compared to anthropogenic influences. Here it is shown that the precession of perihelion occurring over a century substantially affects the intra-annual variation of solar radiation influx at different locations, especially higher latitudes, with northern and southern hemispheres being subject to contrasting insolation changes. This north/south asymmetry has grown since perihelion was aligned with the winter solstice seven to eight centuries ago, and must cause enhanced year-on-year springtime melting of Arctic (but not Antarctic) ice and therefore feedback warming because increasing amounts of land and open sea are denuded of high-albedo ice and snow across boreal summer and into autumn. The accelerating sequence of insolation change now occurring as perihelion moves further into boreal winter has not occurred previously during the Holocene and so would not have been observed before by past or present civilisations. Reasons are given for the significance of this process having been overlooked until now. This mechanism represents a supplementary - natural - contribution to climate change in the present epoch and may even be the dominant fundamental cause of global warming, although anthropogenic effects surely play a role too.

  2. An ice age recorded in the polar deposits of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Isaac B.; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Holt, John W.; Phillips, Roger J.

    2016-05-01

    Layered ice deposits at the poles of Mars record a detailed history of accumulation and erosion related to climate processes. Radar investigations measure these layers and provide evidence for climate changes such as ice advance and retreat. We present a detailed analysis of observational data showing that ~87,000 cubic kilometers of ice have accumulated at the poles since the end of the last ice age ~370,000 years ago; this volume is equivalent to a global layer of ~60 centimeters. The majority of the material accumulated at the north pole. These results provide both a means to understand the accumulation history of the polar deposits as related to orbital Milankovitch cycles and constraints for better determination of Mars’ past and future climates.

  3. On the predictability of ice avalanches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pralong

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction.

  4. Water Ice Albedo Variations on the Martian Northern Polar Cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hale, A. S.; Bass, D. S.; Tamppari, L. K.

    2003-01-01

    The Viking Orbiters determined that the surface of Mars northern residual cap is water ice. Many researchers have related observed atmospheric water vapor abundances to seasonal exchange between reservoirs such as the polar caps, but the extent to which the exchange between the surface and the atmosphere remains uncertain. Early studies of the ice coverage and albedo of the northern residual Martian polar cap using Mariner 9 and Viking images reported that there were substantial internannual differences in ice deposition on the polar cap, a result which suggested a highly variable Martian climate. However, some of the data used in these studies were obtained at differing values of heliocentric solar longitude (L(sub s)). Reevaluation of this dataset indicated that the residual cap undergoes seasonal brightening throughout the summer, and indicated that this process repeats from year to year. In this study we continue to compare Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter imaging observations and thermal data of the north residual polar cap to data acquired with Mars Global Surveyor s Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) instrument. In the current study, our goal is to examine all released data from MGS MOC in the northern summer season, along with applicable TES data in order to better understand the albedo variations in the northern summer and their implications on water transport. To date, work has focused primarily on the MOC dataset. In 1999, data acquisition of the northern polar regions began at L(sub s) = 107, although there was little north polar data acquired from L(sub s)= 107 to L(sub s) = 109. We examined a total of 409 images from L(sub s) = 107 to L(sub s)=148. We have also examined data from 2000 from L(sub s)= 93 to L(sub s)= 110; additional progress is ongoing. Here we present a progress report of our observations, and continue to determine their implications for the Martian water cycle.

  5. Bringing Society to a Changing Polar Ocean: Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (ICE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, O.

    2015-12-01

    Environmental changes in the Arctic and Antarctic appear to be accelerating and scientists are trying to understand both the patterns and the impacts of change. These changes will have profound impact on humanity and create a need for public education about these critical habitats. We have focused on a two-pronged strategy to increase public awareness as well as enable educators to discuss comfortably the implications of climate change. Our first focus is on entraining public support through the development of science documentaries about the science and people who conduct it. Antarctic Edge is a feature length award-winning documentary about climate change that has been released in May 2015 and has garnered interest in movie theatres and on social media stores (NetFlix, ITunes). This broad outreach is coupled with our group's interest assisting educators formally. The majority of current polar education is focused on direct educator engagement through personal research experiences that have impact on the participating educators' classrooms. Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (ICE) proposes to improve educator and student engagement in polar sciences through exposure to scientists and polar data. Through professional development and the creation of data tools, Polar ICE will reduce the logistical costs of bringing polar science to students in grades 6-16. We will provide opportunities to: 1) build capacity of polar scientists in communicating and engaging with diverse audiences; 2) create scalable, in-person and virtual opportunities for educators and students to engage with polar scientists and their research through data visualizations, data activities, educator workshops, webinars, and student research symposia; and 3) evaluate the outcomes of Polar ICE and contribute to our understanding of science education practices. We will use a blended learning approach to promote partnerships and cross-disciplinary sharing. This combined multi-pronged approach

  6. Ice condensation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate: Implications for polar stratospheric ice clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Fortin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism of ice nucleation to form Type 2 PSCs is important for controlling the ice particle size and hence the possible dehydration in the polar winter stratosphere. This paper probes heterogeneous ice nucleation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT. Laboratory experiments were performed using a thin-film, high-vacuum apparatus in which the condensed phase is monitored via Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and water pressure is monitored with the combination of an MKS baratron and an ionization gauge. Results show that SAT is an efficient ice nucleus with a critical ice saturation ratio of S*ice = 1.3 to 1.02 over the temperature range 169.8-194.5 K. This corresponds to a necessary supercooling of 0.1-1.3 K below the ice frost point. The laboratory data is used as input for a microphysical/photochemical model to probe the effect that this heterogeneous nucleation mechanism could have on Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration. In the model simulations, even a very small number of SAT particles (e.g., 10-3 cm-3 result in ice nucleation on SAT as the dominant mechanism for Type 2 PSC formation. As a result, Type 2 PSC formation is more widespread, leading to larger-scale dehydration. The characteristics of the clouds are controlled by the assumed number of SAT particles present, demonstrating that a proper treatment of SAT is critical for correctly modeling Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration.

  7. ICESat's Laser Measurements of Polar Ice, Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwally, H. J.; Schutz, B.; Abdalati, W.; Abshire, J.; Bentley, C.; Brenner, A.; Bufton, J.; Dezio, J.; Hancock, D.; Harding, D.; hide

    2001-01-01

    The Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission will measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) of satellites. Time-series of elevation changes will enable determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. Other scientific objectives of ICESat include: global measurements of cloud heights and the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols; precise measurements of land topography and vegetation canopy heights; and measurements of sea ice roughness, sea ice thickness, ocean surface elevations, and surface reflectivity. The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on ICESat has a 1064 nm laser channel for surface altimetry and dense cloud heights and a 532 nm lidar channel for the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols. The accuracy of surface ranging is 10 cm, averaged over 60 m diameter laser footprints spaced at 172 m along-track. The orbital altitude will be around 600 km at an inclination of 94 deg with a 183-day repeat pattern. The onboard GPS receiver will enable radial orbit determinations to better than 5 cm, and star-trackers will enable footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally. The spacecraft attitude will be controlled to point the laser beam to within +/- 35 m of reference surface tracks at high latitudes. ICESat is designed to operate for 3 to 5 years and should be followed by successive missions to measure ice changes for at least 15 years.

  8. Polar Stereographic Valid Ice Masks Derived from National Ice Center Monthly Sea Ice Climatologies, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These valid ice masks provide a way to remove spurious ice caused by residual weather effects and land spillover in passive microwave data. They are derived from the...

  9. Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

    2017-05-01

    Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to

  10. GIA Modeling with 3D Rheology and Recent Ice Thickness Changes in Polar Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Der Wal, W.; Wu, P. P.

    2012-12-01

    Models for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) mainly focus on the response of the solid Earth to ice thickness changes on the scale of thousands of years. However, some of the fastest vertical movement in former glaciated regions is due to changes in ice thickness that occurred within the last 1,000 years. Similar studies for the polar regions are limited, possibly due to a lack of knowledge on past ice sheet thicknesses there. Still, predictions of uplift rate and mass change due to recent ice thickness changes need to improve in order to provide accurate estimates of current mass loss. In order to obtain a measurable response to variations in ice thickness in the last 1,000 years, viscosity in the lithosphere or top of the upper mantle needs to be lower than the mantle viscosity values in conventional GIA models. In the absence of reliable models for recent ice thickness changes we aim to bracket the predicted uplift rates and gravity rates for such changes by assuming simplified past ice growth and melt patterns. Instead of adding a low-viscous layer in the mantle a priori, creep parameters are based on information from experimental constraints, seismology and heatflow measurements. Thus the model includes viscosity varying in space and time. The simulations are performed on a finite element model of a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible Earth using the commercial software Abaqus. 3D composite rheology is implemented based on temperature fields from heatflow measurements or seismic velocity anomalies. The lithospheric thickness does not need to be specified as the effective elastic thickness is determined by the local effective viscosity. ICE-5G is used as ice loading history while ice changes during and around the Little Ice Age in Greenland are assumed to take place near the coast. A 3D composite rheology has been shown to match historic sea levels well, but uplift rates are somewhat underestimated. With the GIA models that best match uplift rates in

  11. Future sea ice conditions in Western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Myers, Paul G; Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Arjen D; Lunn, Nick J

    2013-09-01

    The primary habitat of polar bears is sea ice, but in Western Hudson Bay (WH), the seasonal ice cycle forces polar bears ashore each summer. Survival of bears on land in WH is correlated with breakup and the ice-free season length, and studies suggest that exceeding thresholds in these variables will lead to large declines in the WH population. To estimate when anthropogenic warming may have progressed sufficiently to threaten the persistence of polar bears in WH, we predict changes in the ice cycle and the sea ice concentration (SIC) in spring (the primary feeding period of polar bears) with a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model and warming forced with 21st century IPCC greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: B1 (low), A1B (medium), and A2 (high). We define critical years for polar bears based on proposed thresholds in breakup and ice-free season and we assess when ice-cycle conditions cross these thresholds. In the three scenarios, critical years occur more commonly after 2050. From 2001 to 2050, 2 critical years occur under B1 and A2, and 4 under A1B; from 2051 to 2100, 8 critical years occur under B1, 35 under A1B and 41 under A2. Spring SIC in WH is high (>90%) in all three scenarios between 2001 and 2050, but declines rapidly after 2050 in A1B and A2. From 2090 to 2100, the mean spring SIC is 84 (±7)% in B1, 56 (±26)% in A1B and 20 (±13)% in A2. Our predictions suggest that the habitat of polar bears in WH will deteriorate in the 21st century. Ice predictions in A1B and A2 suggest that the polar bear population may struggle to persist after ca. 2050. Predictions under B1 suggest that reducing GHG emissions could allow polar bears to persist in WH throughout the 21st century. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Polar bear and walrus response to the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, K.; Whalen, M.; Douglas, D.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Atwood, Todd C.; Jay, C.

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. One highly visible consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades - a decline projected to continue and result in ice-free summers likely as soon as 2030. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are dependent on sea ice over the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean's marginal seas. The continental shelves are shallow regions with high biological productivity, supporting abundant marine life within the water column and on the sea floor. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform for hunting ice seals; walruses use sea ice as a resting platform between dives to forage for clams and other bottom-dwelling invertebrates. How have sea ice changes affected polar bears and walruses? How will anticipated changes affect them in the future?

  13. Under-ice distribution of polar cod Boreogadus saida in the central Arctic Ocean and their association with sea-ice habitat properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    David, Carmen; Lange, Benjamin; Krumpen, Thomas; Schaafsma, F.L.; Franeker, van J.A.; Flores, H.

    2016-01-01

    In the Arctic Ocean, sea-ice habitats are undergoing rapid environmental change. Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) is the most abundant fish known to reside under the pack-ice. The under-ice distribution, association with sea-ice habitat properties and origins of polar cod in the central Arctic Ocean,

  14. Diurnal Albedo Variations of the Martian North Polar Water Ice Cap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, R. F.; Bass, D.

    2002-01-01

    Presentation of findings regarding diurnal variations in the north polar water ice cap of Mars as part of a larger study of the interannual and seasonal variations of the Martian north polar water ice cap. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  15. Fifty Years of Soviet and Russian Drilling Activity in Polar and Non-Polar Ice: A Chronological History

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ueda, Herbert T; Talalay, Pavel G

    2007-01-01

    Soviet and Russian drilling activity in ice began in 1955 while conducting temperature surveys on a glacier in Franz-Josef Land in the Arctic and continued to 1960 on the glaciers of the polar Ural...

  16. Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Graham J C; Aslam, Shazia N; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N

    2013-09-24

    Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions.

  17. High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, TA; Galicia, MP; Thiemann, GW; Belt, ST; Yurkowski, DJ; Dyck, MG

    2018-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to ...

  18. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Stephen G; Castro de la Guardia, Laura; Derocher, Andrew E; Sahanatien, Vicki; Tremblay, Bruno; Huard, David

    2014-01-01

    Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling. Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands. Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  19. Projected polar bear sea ice habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen G Hamilton

    Full Text Available Sea ice across the Arctic is declining and altering physical characteristics of marine ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus have been identified as vulnerable to changes in sea ice conditions. We use sea ice projections for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 2006 - 2100 to gain insight into the conservation challenges for polar bears with respect to habitat loss using metrics developed from polar bear energetics modeling.Shifts away from multiyear ice to annual ice cover throughout the region, as well as lengthening ice-free periods, may become critical for polar bears before the end of the 21st century with projected warming. Each polar bear population in the Archipelago may undergo 2-5 months of ice-free conditions, where no such conditions exist presently. We identify spatially and temporally explicit ice-free periods that extend beyond what polar bears require for nutritional and reproductive demands.Under business-as-usual climate projections, polar bears may face starvation and reproductive failure across the entire Archipelago by the year 2100.

  20. Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbehn, Tom J; Varpe, Øystein

    2017-12-01

    Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high-latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom-up control through primary productivity and top-down control through vision-based foraging. We model effects of sea-ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate-driven sea-ice retreat affects predator-prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice-covered waters, where prey-detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea-ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no-ice scenario to project visual range along two south-north transects with different sea-ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub-Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea-ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long-term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16-fold increase in clearance rate. Top-down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice-edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high-latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high-latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator-prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion

  1. Evidence of unfrozen liquids and seismic anisotropy at the base of the polar ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittlinger, Gérard; Farra, Véronique

    2015-03-01

    We analyze seismic data from broadband stations located on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to determine polar ice seismic velocities. P-to-S converted waves at the ice/rock interface and inside the ice sheets and their multiples (the P-receiver functions) are used to estimate in-situ P-wave velocity (Vp) and P-to-S velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) of polar ice. We find that the polar ice sheets have a two-layer structure; an upper layer of variable thickness (about 2/3 of the total thickness) with seismic velocities close to the standard ice values, and a lower layer of approximately constant thickness with standard Vp but ∼25% smaller Vs. The lower layer ceiling corresponds approximately to the -30 °C isotherm. Synthetic modeling of P-receiver functions shows that strong seismic anisotropy and low vertical S velocity are needed in the lower layer. The seismic anisotropy results from the preferred orientation of ice crystal c-axes toward the vertical. The low vertical S velocity may be due to the presence of unfrozen liquids resulting from premelting at grain joints and/or melting of chemical solutions buried in the ice. The strongly preferred ice crystal orientation fabric and the unfrozen fluids may facilitate polar ice sheet basal flow.

  2. A one stop website for sharing sea ice, ocean and ice sheet data over the polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z.; Cheng, X.; Liu, J.; Hui, F.; Ding, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The polar regions, including the Arctic and Antarctic, are changing rapidly. Our capabilities to remotely monitor the state of the polar regions are increasing greatly. Satellite and airborne technologies have been deployed and further improvements are underway. Meanwhile, various algorithms have been developed to retrieve important parameters to maximize the effectiveness of available remote sensing data. These technologies and algorithms promise to greatly increase our understanding of variations in sea ice, ocean and ice sheet. However, so much information is scattered out there. It is challenging to find exactly what you are looking for by just searching it through the network. Therefore, we try to establish a common platform to sharing some key parameters for the polar regions. A group of scientists from Beijing Normal University and University at Albany developed a website as a "one-stop shop" for the current state of the polar regions. The website provides real-time (or near real-time) key parameters derived from a variety of operational satellites in an understandable, accessible and credible way. Three types of parameter, which are sea ice, ocean and ice sheet respectively, are shown and available to be downloaded in the website. Several individual parameters are contained in a specific type of parameter. The parameters of sea ice include sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness, melt pond, sea ice leads and sea ice drift. The ocean parameters contain sea surface temperature and sea surface wind. Ice sheet balance, ice velocity and some other parameters are classified into the type of ice sheet parameter. Some parameters are well-calibrated and available to be obtained from other websites, such as sea ice concentration, sea ice thickness sea surface temperature. Since these parameters are retrieved from different sensors, such as SSMI, AMSR2 etc., data format, spatial resolution of the parameters are not unified. We collected and reprocessed these

  3. Ice Surface Temperature Variability in the Polar Regions and the Relationships to 2 Meter Air Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyer, J.; Madsen, K. S.; Englyst, P. N.

    2017-12-01

    Determining the surface and near surface air temperature from models or observations in the Polar Regions is challenging due to the extreme conditions and the lack of in situ observations. The errors in near surface temperature products are typically larger than for other regions of the world, and the potential for using Earth Observations is large. As part of the EU project, EUSTACE, we have developed empirical models for the relationship between the satellite observed skin ice temperatures and 2m air temperatures. We use the Arctic and Antarctic Sea and sea ice Surface Temperatures from thermal Infrared satellite sensors (AASTI) reanalysis to estimate daily surface air temperature over land ice and sea ice for the Arctic and the Antarctic. Large efforts have been put into collecting and quality controlling in situ observations from various data portals and research projects. The reconstruction is independent of numerical weather prediction models and thus provides an important alternative to modelled air temperature estimates. The new surface air temperature data record has been validated against more than 58.000 independent in situ measurements for the four surface types: Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic sea ice and Antarctic ice sheet. The average correlations are 92-97% and average root mean square errors are 3.1-3.6°C for the four surface types. The root mean square error includes the uncertainty of the in-situ measurement, which ranges from 0.5 to 2°C. A comparison with ERA-Interim shows a consistently better performance of the satellite based air temperatures than the ERA-Interim for the Greenland ice sheet, when compared against observations not used in any of the two estimates. This is encouraging and demonstrates the values of these products. In addition, the procedure presented here works on satellite observations that are available in near real time and this opens up for a near real time estimation of the surface air temperature over

  4. Early Student Support to Investigate the Role of Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Ice - Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions Cecilia M. Bitz Atmospheric Sciences MS351640 University of Washington Seattle, WA 98196-1640 phone...TERM GOALS The overarching goals of this project are to understand the role of sea ice - albedo feedback on sea ice predictability, to improve how...sea- ice albedo is modeled and how sea ice predictions are initialized, and then to evaluate how these improvements influence inherent sea ice

  5. Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

    2016-09-01

    Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.

  6. Comparison of PARASOL Observations with Polarized Reflectances Simulated Using Different Ice Habit Mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Benjamin H.; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; Riedi, Jerome; Labonnote, Laurent C.; Thieuleux, Francois; Platnick, Steven

    2012-01-01

    Insufficient knowledge of the habit distribution and the degree of surface roughness of ice crystals within ice clouds is a source of uncertainty in the forward light scattering and radiative transfer simulations required in downstream applications involving these clouds. The widely used MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 ice microphysical model assumes a mixture of various ice crystal shapes with smooth-facets except aggregates of columns for which a moderately rough condition is assumed. When compared with PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) polarized reflection data, simulations of polarized reflectance using smooth particles show a poor fit to the measurements, whereas very rough-faceted particles provide an improved fit to the polarized reflectance. In this study a new microphysical model based on a mixture of 9 different ice crystal habits with severely roughened facets is developed. Simulated polarized reflectance using the new ice habit distribution is calculated using a vector adding-doubling radiative transfer model, and the simulations closely agree with the polarized reflectance observed by PARASOL. The new general habit mixture is also tested using a spherical albedo differences analysis, and surface roughening is found to improve the consistency of multi-angular observations. It is suggested that an ice model incorporating an ensemble of different habits with severely roughened surfaces would potentially be an adequate choice for global ice cloud retrievals.

  7. Combining dual-polarization radar and ground-based observations to study the effect of riming on ice particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moisseev, Dmitri; von Lerber, Annakaisa; Tiira, Jussi

    2017-04-01

    Recently a new microphysical scheme based on a single ice-phase category was proposed for the use in numerical weather prediction models. In the proposed scheme, ice particle properties are predicted and vary in time and space. One of the attributes of the proposed scheme is that the prefactor of a power-law relation that links mass and size of ice particles is determined by the rime mass fraction, while the exponent is kept constant. According to this the maximum dimensions of ice particles do not change during riming until graupel growth phase is reached. The dual-polarization radar observations given an additional insight on what are the physical properties of ice particles. Often, it is assumed that differential reflectivity should decrease because of riming. The motivation for this is that heavy riming would transform an ice particle to graupel. A graupel particle typically would have an almost spherical shape and therefore the differential reflectivity will become smaller. On the other hand, at the earlier stages ice particle shape may not change much, while its mass and therefore the density increases. This would lead to the increase of the differential reflectivity, for example. By combining ground-based observations, which allow to quantify the effect of riming on snowfall, and dual-polarization radar observations we investigate the impact of riming on ice particle properties, i.e. mass, density and shape. Furthermore, a connection between, bulk properties of ice particles, liquid water path, radar equivalent reflectivity factor and precipitation rate observations is established. The study is based on data collected during US DOE Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC) field campaign that took place in Hyytiala, Finland. A detailed analysis of two events is presented to illustrate the method.

  8. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a Changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Sea Ice - Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions is also about understanding sea ice predictability. REFERENCES Wang, W., M. Chen, and A...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a...this project is to understand sea ice predictability and improve sea ice predictions system by defining key observations, improve technical

  9. Potential Arctic sea ice refuge for sustaining a remnant polar bear population (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G. M.; Amstrup, S. C.; Douglas, D. C.; Gautier, D. L.

    2010-12-01

    Polar bears depend on sea ice as a platform from which they capture seals. Sea ice availability must be spatially and temporally adequate for birth and weaning of seal pups, and to maximize seal hunting opportunities for polar bears. Projected declines in the spatial and temporal extent of summer and autumn sea ice could potentially limit the ability of polar bears to build up body stores sufficient to maintain reproductive fitness. General circulation models, however, suggest that summer and autumn sea ice may persist in the shelf waters of the Canadian Archipelago and northern Greenland adjacent to the Arctic basin. While winter-formed ice is important, a primary mechanism for sea ice accumulation in this region is by mechanical thickening of the sea ice facilitated by convergent forces from the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream. Collectively these areas could provide a polar bear refugium when other regions have lost the sea ice necessary to support viable populations. The potential for a polar bear refugium, however, must include other resource considerations. Projected declines of sea ice in the Northwest Passage may expose polar bears to hazards related to increase shipping and other commerce. Increasing global demands and limited opportunities elsewhere make the Arctic an increasingly attractive area for petroleum exploration. The Canadian Archipelago coincides with the Sverdrup basin, where petroleum accumulations have already been discovered but as yet are undeveloped. The Lincoln Sea Basin offshore of northern Greenland has the geological possibility of significant petroleum accumulations, and northeastern Greenland is one of the most prospective areas in the Arctic for undiscovered oil. Activities associated with commerce and petroleum development could reduce the potential viability of the region as a polar bear refugium. Hence, if the goal is a sustainable (albeit reduced) polar bear population, important considerations include commerce

  10. Increased Arctic Sea Ice Drift Alters Polar Bear Movements and Energetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, D. C.; Durner, G. M.; Albeke, S. E.; Whiteman, J. P.; Amstrup, S. C.; Richardson, E.; Wilson, R. R.; Ben-David, M.

    2015-12-01

    Recent thinning of Arctic sea ice has increased its drift from currents and winds. Increased ice drift could affect movements and energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which rely, almost exclusively, on this substrate for hunting seals. Foraging by polar bears is a relatively sedentary behavior, as they typically capture their main prey by waiting at breathing holes, where seals haul-out along leads, or by short-distance stalking. We examined the response of polar bears to ice drift in the Beaufort (BS) and Chukchi (CS) seas, and between two periods with different sea ice characteristics: 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. We used satellite-tracked adult female polar bear locations, standardized by a continuous-time correlated random walk, coupled with modeled ice drift, to estimate displacement and drift-corrected bear movements along east-west and north-south axes. Sea ice drift in both regions increased with greater westward and more extreme northward and southward rates from 1987-1998 to 1999-2013. Polar bears responded with greater eastward movements and, in the CS greater movements north and south. We show that efforts by polar bears to compensate for greater westward ice drift in recent years translated into a model-derived estimate of 5.7-7.2% increase in energy expenditure. We also estimated that polar bears increased their travel time 18-20% between the two time periods, suggesting time allocated to foraging was reduced. Increased energetic costs and travel time resulting from greater ice drift, in conjunction with ongoing habitat loss, suggest that recent changes to Arctic sea ice may affect movements and energy balance of polar bears.

  11. A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, K.D.; Peacock, E.; Taylor, M.; Stirling, I.; Born, E.W.; Laidre, K.L.; Wiig, O.

    2012-01-01

    One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977-1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition. ?? 2011 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

  12. Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Beig, Gufran; Sahu, Saroj; Fasullo, John; Orlikowski, Daniel

    2010-04-15

    Recent thinning of glaciers over the Himalayas (sometimes referred to as the third polar region) have raised concern on future water supplies since these glaciers supply water to large river systems that support millions of people inhabiting the surrounding areas. Black carbon (BC) aerosols, released from incomplete combustion, have been increasingly implicated as causing large changes in the hydrology and radiative forcing over Asia and its deposition on snow is thought to increase snow melt. In India BC emissions from biofuel combustion is highly prevalent and compared to other regions, BC aerosol amounts are high. Here, we quantify the impact of BC aerosols on snow cover and precipitation from 1990 to 2010 over the Indian subcontinental region using two different BC emission inventories. New estimates indicate that Indian BC emissions from coal and biofuel are large and transport is expected to expand rapidly in coming years. We show that over the Himalayas, from 1990 to 2000, simulated snow/ice cover decreases by {approx}0.9% due to aerosols. The contribution of the enhanced Indian BC to this decline is {approx}36%, similar to that simulated for 2000 to 2010. Spatial patterns of modeled changes in snow cover and precipitation are similar to observations (from 1990 to 2000), and are mainly obtained with the newer BC estimates.

  13. Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

  14. Perspectives for DNA studies on polar ice cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anders J.; Willerslev, E.

    2002-01-01

    Recently amplifiable ancient DNA was obtained from a Greenland ice core. The DNA revealed a diversity of fungi, plants, algae and protists and has thereby expanded the range of detectable organic material in fossil glacier ice. The results suggest that ancient DNA can be obtained from other ice c...

  15. Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

    2015-01-01

    Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

  16. Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karyn D Rode

    Full Text Available Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013 when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia, highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

  17. Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate-change-induced reduction of their sea-ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea-ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutritional needs of polar bears as well as the physiological and environmental constraints that shape their use of terrestrial ecosystems. Only small numbers of polar bears have been documented consuming terrestrial foods even in modest quantities. Over much of the polar bear's range, limited terrestrial food availability supports only low densities of much smaller, resident brown bears (Ursus arctos), which use low-quality resources more efficiently and may compete with polar bears in these areas. Where consumption of terrestrial foods has been documented, polar bear body condition and survival rates have declined even as land use has increased. Thus far, observed consumption of terrestrial food by polar bears has been insufficient to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities but can have ecological consequences for other species. Warming-induced loss of sea ice remains the primary threat faced by polar bears.

  18. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, K. L.; Regehr, E. V.; Akcakaya, H. R.; Amstrup, S. C.; Atwood, T.; Lunn, N.; Obbard, M.; Stern, H. L., III; Thiemann, G.; Wiig, O.

    2016-12-01

    Loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is the most serious threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) throughout their circumpolar range. We performed a data-based sensitivity analysis with respect to this threat by evaluating the potential response of the global polar bear population to projected sea-ice conditions. We conducted 1) an assessment of generation length for polar bears, 2) developed of a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat characteristics for the species; and 3) performed population projections over three generations, using computer simulation and statistical models representing alternative relationships between sea ice and polar bear abundance. Using three separate approaches, the median percent change in mean global population size for polar bears between 2015 and 2050 ranged from -4% (95% CI = -62%, 50%) to -43% (95% CI = -76%, -20%). Results highlight the potential for large reductions in the global population if sea-ice loss continues. They also highlight the large amount of uncertainty in statistical projections of polar bear abundance and the sensitivity of projections to plausible alternative assumptions. The median probability of a reduction in the mean global population size of polar bears greater than 30% over three generations was approximately 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95. The median probability of a reduction greater than 50% was approximately 0.07 (range 0-0.35), and the probability of a reduction greater than 80% was negligible.

  19. Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, George M; Douglas, David C; Albeke, Shannon E; Whiteman, John P; Amstrup, Steven C; Richardson, Evan; Wilson, Ryan R; Ben-David, Merav

    2017-09-01

    Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%-9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%-8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%-3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1-3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. Co-distribution of seabirds and their polar cod prey near the ice edge in southern Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    LeBlanc, Mathieu; Gauthier, S; Mosbech, Anders

    species, and age-1 polar cod found in bird stomachs were likely individuals associated to ice. At a large scale of hundreds of kilometers, seabirds and age-0 polar cod were more abundant in ice-covered habitats (30 to 100% ice concentration). At medium and small scale of 12.5 and 1 km respectively...

  1. A High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis System for Polar Ice Cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dallmayr, Remi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Kjær, Helle Astrid

    2016-01-01

    signals of abrupt climate change in deep polar ice cores. To test its performance, we used the system to analyze different climate intervals in ice drilled at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) site, Greenland. The quality of our continuous measurement of stable water isotopes has been...... of Polar Research (NIPR) in Tokyo. The system allows the continuous analysis of stable water isotopes and electrical conductivity, as well as the collection of discrete samples from both inner and outer parts of the core. This CFA system was designed to have sufficiently high temporal resolution to detect...

  2. Polar Sea Ice Monitoring Using HY-2A Scatterometer Measurements

    OpenAIRE

    Mingming Li; Chaofang Zhao; Yong Zhao; Zhixiong Wang; Lijian Shi

    2016-01-01

    A sea ice detection algorithm based on Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis is developed to segment sea ice and open water for the Ku-band scatterometer onboard the China’s Hai Yang 2A Satellite (HY-2A/SCAT). Residual classification errors are reduced through image erosion/dilation techniques and sea ice growth/retreat constraint methods. The arctic sea-ice-type classification is estimated via a time-dependent threshold derived from the annual backscatter trends based on previous HY-2A/SCAT ...

  3. Sea ice roughness: the key for predicting Arctic summer ice albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, J.; Ehn, J. K.; Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Barber, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Although melt ponds on Arctic sea ice evolve in stages, ice with smoother surface topography typically allows the pond water to spread over a wider area, reducing the ice-albedo and accelerating further melt. Building on this theory, we simulated the distribution of meltwater on a range of statistically-derived topographies to develop a quantitative relationship between premelt sea ice surface roughness and summer ice albedo. Our method, previously applied to ICESat observations of the end-of-winter sea ice roughness, could account for 85% of the variance in AVHRR observations of the summer ice-albedo [Landy et al., 2015]. Consequently, an Arctic-wide reduction in sea ice roughness over the ICESat operational period (from 2003 to 2008) explained a drop in ice-albedo that resulted in a 16% increase in solar heat input to the sea ice cover. Here we will review this work and present new research linking pre-melt sea ice surface roughness observations from Cryosat-2 to summer sea ice albedo over the past six years, examining the potential of winter roughness as a significant new source of sea ice predictability. We will further evaluate the possibility for high-resolution (kilometre-scale) forecasts of summer sea ice albedo from waveform-level Cryosat-2 roughness data in the landfast sea ice zone of the Canadian Arctic. Landy, J. C., J. K. Ehn, and D. G. Barber (2015), Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,714-10,720, doi:10.1002/2015GL066712.

  4. Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

    2016-12-01

    Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

  5. White-beaked dolphins trapped in the ice and eaten by polar bears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Aars

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus depend on sea ice, where they hunt ice-associated seals. However, they are opportunistic predators and scavengers with a long list of known prey species. Here we report from a small fjord in Svalbard, Norwegian High Arctic, a sighting of an adult male polar bear preying on two white-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris on 23 April 2014. This is the first record of this species as polar bear prey. White-beaked dolphins are frequent visitors to Svalbard waters in summer, but have not previously been reported this far north in early spring. We suggest they were trapped in the ice after strong northerly winds the days before, and possibly killed when forced to surface for air at a small opening in the ice. The bear had consumed most parts of one dolphin. When observed he was in the process of covering the mostly intact second dolphin with snow. Such caching behaviour is generally considered untypical of polar bears. During the following ice-free summer and autumn, at least seven different white-beaked dolphin carcasses were observed in or near the same area. We suggest, based on the area and the degree to which these dolphins had decayed, that they were likely from the same pod and also suffered death due to entrapment in the ice in April. At least six different polar bears were seen scavenging on the carcasses.

  6. DISTRIBUTION AND MIGRATION OF POLAR BEARS, PACIFIC WALRUSES AND GRAY WHALES DEPENDING ON ICE CONDITIONS IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC (17th Symposium on Polar Biology)

    OpenAIRE

    Stanislav, BELIKOV; Andrei, BOLTUNOV; Yuri, GORBUNOV

    1996-01-01

    This report presents a review of available data concerning the influence of ice cover on distribution, density and migration of three species of marine mammals inhabiting the Russian Arctic. Association of marine mammals with ice cover is as follows: (1) the polar bear is distributed in ice zone in the whole year, (2) the walrus is associated with the ice zone only in summer, and (3) the gray whale inhabits the southern area of the ice zone.

  7. Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Graham J. C.; Aslam, Shazia N.; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M.; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N.

    2013-01-01

    Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions. PMID:24019487

  8. A Technique for Measuring Microparticles in Polar Ice Using Micro-Raman Spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toshimitsu Sakurai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe in detail our method of measuring the chemical forms of microparticles in polar ice samples through micro-Raman spectroscopy. The method is intended for solid ice samples, an important point because melting the ice can result in dissociation, contamination, and chemical reactions prior to or during a measurement. We demonstrate the technique of measuring the chemical forms of these microparticles and show that the reference spectra of those salts expected to be common in polar ice are unambiguously detected. From our measurements, Raman intensity of sulfate salts is relatively higher than insoluble dust due to the specific Raman scattering cross-section of chemical forms of microparticles in ice.

  9. Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

    2001-01-01

    Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural

  10. Polar Bear Conservation Status in Relation to Projected Sea-ice Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, E. V.

    2015-12-01

    The status of the world's 19 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) varies as a function of sea-ice conditions, ecology, management, and other factors. Previous methods to project the response of polar bears to loss of Arctic sea ice—the primary threat to the species—include expert opinion surveys, Bayesian Networks providing qualitative stressor assessments, and subpopulations-specific demographic analyses. Here, we evaluated the global conservation status of polar bears using a data-based sensitivity analysis. First, we estimated generation length for subpopulations with available data (n=11). Second, we developed standardized sea-ice metrics representing habitat availability. Third, we projected global population size under alternative assumptions for relationships between sea ice and subpopulation abundance. Estimated generation length (median = 11.4 years; 95%CI = 9.8 to 13.6) and sea-ice change (median = loss of 1.26 ice-covered days per year; 95%CI = 0.70 to 3.37) varied across subpopulations. Assuming a one-to-one proportional relationship between sea ice and abundance, the median percent change in global population size over three polar bear generations was -30% (95%CI = -35% to -25%). Assuming a linear relationship between sea ice and normalized estimates of subpopulation abundance, median percent change was -4% (95% CI = -62% to +50%) or -43% (95% CI = -76% to -20%), depending on how subpopulations were grouped and how inference was extended from relatively well-studied subpopulations (n=7) to those with little or no data. Our findings suggest the potential for large reductions in polar bear numbers over the next three polar bear generations if sea-ice loss due to climate change continues as forecasted.

  11. Co-distribution of seabirds and their polar cod prey near the ice edge in southern Baffin Bay

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    LeBlanc, Mathieu; Gauthier, S; Mosbech, Anders

    species, and age-1 polar cod found in bird stomachs were likely individuals associated to ice. At a large scale of hundreds of kilometers, seabirds and age-0 polar cod were more abundant in ice-covered habitats (30 to 100% ice concentration). At medium and small scale of 12.5 and 1 km respectively...... fish. The ongoing climate warming and the decrease in sea-ice extent may lead to the confinement of sympagic age-1 polar cod in northernmost regions of the Arctic and force seabirds to travel farther to reach more productive ice edges.......Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) is the main prey of several arctic predators including many seabird species. Ice edges are known as important feeding locations for seabirds. How polar cod density affects arctic seabird distribution around offshore ice edges is still unclear. We tested the hypothesis...

  12. Design and Operation of Automated Ice-Tethered Profilers for Real-Time Seawater Observations in the Polar Oceans

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Toole, J; Proshutinsky, A; Krishfield, R; Doherty, K; Frye, Daniel E; Hammar, T; Kemp, J; Peters, D; Heydt, K. von der

    2006-01-01

    An automated, easily-deployed Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) has been developed for deployment on perennial sea ice in polar oceans to measure changes in upper ocean temperature and salinity in all seasons...

  13. Possible recent and ancient glacial ice flow in the south polar region of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kargel, J. S.

    Martian polar science began almost as soon as small telescopes were trained on the planet. The seasonal expansion and contraction of the polar caps and their high albedoes led most astronomers to think that water ice is the dominant constituent. In 1911 Lowell perceived a bluish band around the retreating edge of the polar caps, and interpreted it as water from melting polar ice and seasonal snow. An alternative idea in his time was that the polar caps consist of frozen carbonic acid. Lowell rejected the carbonic acid hypothesis on account of his blue band. He also pointed out that carbonic acid would sublimate rather than melt at confining pressures near and below one bar, hence, carbonic acid could not account for the blue band. In comparing Lowell's theories with today's knowledge, it is recognized that (1) sublimation is mainly responsible for the growth and contraction of Mars' polar caps, (2) carbon dioxide is a major component of the southern polar cap, and (3) Lowell's blue band was probably seasonal dust and/or clouds. Geomorphic evidence that glacial ice and glacial melt waters once flowed over broad areas of the southern polar region. Two aspects of the south polar region suggest possible glacial processes during two distinct eras in Mars' history.

  14. Perennial water ice identified in the south polar cap of Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibring, Jean-Pierre; Langevin, Yves; Poulet, François; Gendrin, Aline; Gondet, Brigitte; Berthé, Michel; Soufflot, Alain; Drossart, Pierre; Combes, Michel; Bellucci, Giancarlo; Moroz, Vassili; Mangold, Nicolas; Schmitt, Bernard

    2004-04-08

    The inventory of water and carbon dioxide reservoirs on Mars are important clues for understanding the geological, climatic and potentially exobiological evolution of the planet. From the early mapping observation of the permanent ice caps on the martian poles, the northern cap was believed to be mainly composed of water ice, whereas the southern cap was thought to be constituted of carbon dioxide ice. However, recent missions (NASA missions Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey) have revealed surface structures, altimetry profiles, underlying buried hydrogen, and temperatures of the south polar regions that are thermodynamically consistent with a mixture of surface water ice and carbon dioxide. Here we present the first direct identification and mapping of both carbon dioxide and water ice in the martian high southern latitudes, at a resolution of 2 km, during the local summer, when the extent of the polar ice is at its minimum. We observe that this south polar cap contains perennial water ice in extended areas: as a small admixture to carbon dioxide in the bright regions; associated with dust, without carbon dioxide, at the edges of this bright cap; and, unexpectedly, in large areas tens of kilometres away from the bright cap.

  15. High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Thomas A; Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Belt, Simon T; Yurkowski, David J; Dyck, Markus G

    2018-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

  16. Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

  17. High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus tissue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A Brown

    Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated, rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55, irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

  18. High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galicia, Melissa P.; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Belt, Simon T.; Yurkowski, David J.; Dyck, Markus G.

    2018-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72–100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems. PMID:29360849

  19. Cl-36 in polar ice, rainwater and seawater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkel, R. C.; Nishiizumi, K.; Elmore, D.; Ferraro, R. D.; Gove, H. E.

    1980-01-01

    Concentrations of the cosmogenic radioisotope Cl-36 in Antarctic ice, rain, and an upper limit of the seawater value are determined using van de Graaff accelerator high energy mass spectrometry. Cl-36 concentrations in Antarctic ice range between 2.5 to 8.7 x 10 to the 6th atoms Cl-36/kg, while those concentrations in samples collected at the Alan Hills ice field locations where meteorites have been brought to the surface by glacial flow and ablation are found to vary by more than a factor of three. This variation is attributed either to the effects of atmospheric mixing and scavenging or to radioactive decay in old ice. The Cl-36 concentration found in a present sample of rainwater is much lower than that reported in samples collected in the early 1960's, suggesting the occurrence of a decrease in the concentration of atmospheric Cl-36 derived from nuclear weapons tests over this time period.

  20. Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

  1. The formation of multiple layers of ice particles in the polar summer mesopause region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H.; Wu, J.; Zhou, Z.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a two-dimensional theoretical model to study the formation process of multiple layers of small ice particles in the polar summer mesosphere as measured by rockets and associated with polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE). The proposed mechanism primarily takes into account the transport processes induced by gravity waves through collision coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ice particles. Numerical solutions of the model indicate that the dynamic influence of wind variation induced by gravity waves can make a significant contribution to the vertical and horizontal transport of ice particles and ultimately transform them into thin multiple layers. Additionally, the pattern of the multiple layers at least partially depends on the vertical wavelength of the gravity wave, the ice particle size and the wind velocity. The results presented in this paper will be helpful to better understand the occurrence of multiple layers of PMSE as well as its variation process.

  2. The formation of multiple layers of ice particles in the polar summer mesopause region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a two-dimensional theoretical model to study the formation process of multiple layers of small ice particles in the polar summer mesosphere as measured by rockets and associated with polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE. The proposed mechanism primarily takes into account the transport processes induced by gravity waves through collision coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ice particles. Numerical solutions of the model indicate that the dynamic influence of wind variation induced by gravity waves can make a significant contribution to the vertical and horizontal transport of ice particles and ultimately transform them into thin multiple layers. Additionally, the pattern of the multiple layers at least partially depends on the vertical wavelength of the gravity wave, the ice particle size and the wind velocity. The results presented in this paper will be helpful to better understand the occurrence of multiple layers of PMSE as well as its variation process.

  3. Properties of horizontally oriented ice crystals observed by polarization lidar over summit, Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neely Ryan R.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A source of error in microphysical retrievals and model simulations is the assumption that clouds are composed of only randomly oriented ice crystals. This assumption is frequently not true, as evidenced by optical phenomena such as parhelia. Here, observations from the Cloud, Aerosol and Polarization Backscatter Lidar at Summit, Greenland are utilized along with other sensors and beam imaging to examine the properties of horizontally oriented ice crystals and the environment conditions in which they occur.

  4. Predicting ice accretion and alleviating galloping on overhead power lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Mingliang

    2002-04-01

    Both the static and dynamic effects of an ice storm on an overhead power line are investigated fairly comprehensively in this thesis. To determine the static, extreme ice load as well as the combined ice and wind load, a systematic procedure is established based on extensive freezing rain experiments and a Monte Carlo simulation. On the other hand, a dynamic effect---galloping---is examined quite extensively with the objective of better understanding its behavior. A novel add-on device---the hybrid nutation damper (HND)---is proposed to control galloping. Its effectiveness is assessed numerically by using a modified, 3DOF based, galloping software. The present investigations lead to the following findings. (i) Goodwin's simple theoretical model surprisingly predicts, quite accurately, the temporally changing weight of not only a dry ice growth but also a wet ice growth for a fixed, unheated conductor sample. (ii) The maximum ice loading may vary significantly over a power line's planned lifetime because of the randomness of an ice storm and its characteristics as well as the uncertainty involved in identifying the extreme probability distribution of the ice loading. Consequently, backup protection is presently essential for a power line in an ice prone area. (iii) A conductor's torsional flexibility does not appear to affect the growth of the accreted ice weight but it modifies the ice shape significantly. (iv) Three representative ice shapes (a crescent, D-like and icicle pendant) can initiate galloping so that galloping may occur in any icing condition. (v) A noticeable swingback or twist appears to develop only when their respective natural frequencies coincide with the plunge's natural frequency. (vi) A hydraulic jump is the major source of energy dissipation in a nutation damper. A properly induced rotation can significantly enhance a nutation damper's performance. (vii) A hybrid nutation damper has been demonstrated to be a promising means of alleviating

  5. Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Rode, Karyn D.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C.; Olson, Jay

    2015-01-01

    Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In bo...

  6. Research progress of anti-icing/deicing technologies for polar ships and offshore platforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XIE Qiang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The polar regions present adverse circumstances of high humidity and strong air-sea exchange. As such, the surfaces of ships and platforms (oil exploiting and drilling platforms serving in polar regions can easily be frozen by ice accretion, which not only affects the operation of the equipment but also threatens safety. This paper summarizes the status of the anti-icing/deicing technologies of both China and abroad for polar ships and offshore platforms, and introduces the various effects of ice accretion on polar ships and offshore platforms, and the resulting safety impacts. It then reviews existing anti-icing/deicing technologies and methods of both China and abroad, including such active deicing methods as electric heating, infrared heating and ultrasonic guided wave deicing, as well as such passive deicing methods as super hydrophobic coating, sacrificial coating, aqueous lubricating layer coating and low cross-link density (with interfacial slippage coating, summarizes their applicability to polar ships and offshore platforms, and finally discusses their advantages/disadvantages.

  7. C-band Joint Active/Passive Dual Polarization Sea Ice Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, M. R.; Gifford, C. M.; Winstead, N. S.; Walton, W. C.; Dietz, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    A technique for synergistically-combining high-resolution SAR returns with like-frequency passive microwave emissions to detect thin (standard deviation to mean) has fewer ambiguities between ice and water than cross sections, but breaking waves still produce ice-like signatures for both polarizations. For the radiometer, the PRIC (polarization ratio ice concentration) identifies areas that are unambiguously water. Applying cumulative statistics to co-located COV levels adaptively determines an ice/water threshold. Outcomes from extensive testing with Sentinel and AMSR-2 data are shown in the results. The detection algorithm was applied to the freeze-up in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Barents, and East Siberian Seas in 2015 and 2016, spanning mid-September to early November of both years. At the end of the melt, 6 GHz PRIC values are 5-10% greater than those reported by radiometric algorithms at 19 and 37 GHz. During freeze-up, COV separates grease ice (concentrations than operational scatterometer or radiometer algorithms, mostly from ice edge and coastal areas. In conclusion, the algorithm presented combines high-resolution SAR returns with passive microwave emissions for automated ice detection at SAR resolutions.

  8. Predictive model for ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadur, Vaibhav; Mishchenko, Lidiya; Hatton, Benjamin; Taylor, J Ashley; Aizenberg, Joanna; Krupenkin, Tom

    2011-12-06

    The prevention and control of ice accumulation has important applications in aviation, building construction, and energy conversion devices. One area of active research concerns the use of superhydrophobic surfaces for preventing ice formation. The present work develops a physics-based modeling framework to predict ice formation on cooled superhydrophobic surfaces resulting from the impact of supercooled water droplets. This modeling approach analyzes the multiple phenomena influencing ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces through the development of submodels describing droplet impact dynamics, heat transfer, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. These models are then integrated together to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ice formation upon impact of liquid droplets at freezing conditions. The accuracy of this model is validated by its successful prediction of the experimental findings that demonstrate that superhydrophobic surfaces can fully prevent the freezing of impacting water droplets down to surface temperatures of as low as -20 to -25 °C. The model can be used to study the influence of surface morphology, surface chemistry, and fluid and thermal properties on dynamic ice formation and identify parameters critical to achieving icephobic surfaces. The framework of the present work is the first detailed modeling tool developed for the design and analysis of surfaces for various ice prevention/reduction strategies. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  9. Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, K.D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, E.V.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long-term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a longterm data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

    2010-01-01

    On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

  11. Movements of female polar bears (Usrus maritimus) in the East Greenland pack ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiig, Øystein; Born, Erik W.; Pedersen, Leif Toudal

    2003-01-01

    The movements of two adult female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in East Greenland and the Greenland Sea area were studied by use of satellite telemetry between the fall of 1994 and the summer of 1998. One female was tracked for 621 days, the other for 1,415 days. During this time the females used...... for a closer monitoring of the effects of this change on the East Greenland polar bear population....... movement rates varied between 0.32 and 0.76km/h. Both bears had very large home ranges (242,000 and 468,000 km(2)) within the dynamic pack ice of the Greenland Sea. The facts that the bears made extensive use of the offshore sea ice and that there is a marked reduction of the Greenland Sea ice call...

  12. Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

  13. Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2015-01-01

    In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

  14. Estimation of Melt Pond Fractions on First Year Sea Ice Using Compact Polarization SAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Haiyan; Perrie, William; Li, Qun; Hou, Yijun

    2017-10-01

    Melt ponds are a common feature on Arctic sea ice. They are linked to the sea ice surface albedo and transmittance of energy to the ocean from the atmosphere and thus constitute an important process to parameterize in Arctic climate models and simulations. This paper presents a first attempt to retrieve the melt pond fraction from hybrid-polarized compact polarization (CP) SAR imagery, which has wider swath and shorter revisit time than the quad-polarization systems, e.g., from RADARSAT-2 (RS-2). The co-polarization (co-pol) ratio has been verified to provide estimates of melt pond fractions. However, it is a challenge to link CP parameters and the co-pol ratio. The theoretical possibility is presented, for making this linkage with the CP parameter C22/C11 (the ratio between the elements of the coherence matrix of CP SAR) for melt pond detection and monitoring with the tilted-Bragg scattering model for the ocean surface. The empirical transformed formulation, denoted as the "compact polarization and quad-pol" ("CPQP") model, is proposed, based on 2062 RS-2 quad-pol SAR images, collocated with in situ measurements. We compared the retrieved melt pond fraction with CP parameters simulated from quad-pol SAR data with results retrieved from the co-pol ratio from quad-pol SAR observations acquired during the Arctic-Ice (Arctic-Ice Covered Ecosystem in a Rapidly Changing Environment) field project. The results are shown to be comparable for observed melt pond measurements in spatial and temporal distributions. Thus, the utility of CP mode SAR for melt pond fraction estimation on first year level ice is presented.

  15. Sea ice-associated diet change increases the levels of chlorinated and brominated contaminants in polar bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mckinney, Melissa A; Peacock, Elizabeth; Letcher, Robert J

    2009-06-15

    Two global environmental issues, climate change and contamination by persistent organic pollutants, represent major concerns for arctic ecosystems. Yet, it is unclear how these two stressors interact in the Arctic. For instance, the influence of climate-associated changes in food web structure on exposure to pollutants within arctic ecosystems is presently unknown. Here, we report on recent changes in feeding ecology (1991-2007) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the western Hudson Bay subpopulation that have resulted in increases in the tissue concentrations of several chlorinated and brominated contaminants. Differences in timing of the annual sea ice breakup explained a significant proportion of the diet variation among years. As expected from climate change predictions, this diet change was consistent with an increase in the consumed proportions of open water-associated seal species compared to ice-associated seal species in years of earlier sea ice breakup. Our results demonstrate that climate change is a modulating influence on contaminants in this polar bear subpopulation and may pose an additional and previously unidentified threat to northern ecosystems through altered exposures to contaminants.

  16. Characterization of ice Content in Permafrost Soils on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Using Induced Polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, J.; Parsekian, A.; Slater, L.; Plug, L.; Grosse, G.; Walter, K.

    2008-12-01

    Zones of high ice content are imaged using direct current (DC) and induced polarization (IP) electrical measurements in Permafrost soils on the Northern Seward Peninsula. Variable ice content in near surface permafrost as a result of ice wedge development is a major control on thermokarst erosion rates, making the characterization of distribution important to process modeling. A set of IP and DC resistivity measurements were collected at five locations, four in varying generations of thermokarst lake basins and one where there is no evidence of thermokarst lake basin development. GPR data was also collected using 100 and 200 mHz unsheilded antenna at each line, as well as high precision DGPS measurements, vegetation mapping, active layer thickness measurements, and soil characterization using test pits and nearby outcrops. DC resistivity and GPR results correspond well to the active layer probe and test pits dug to the bottom of the active layer. IP imaging shows the location of elevated ice content as strongly nonpolarizable anomolies which correlate to ice wedge ridges measured with GPS and observed from vegetation patterning. Non-polarizable targets found deeper in the permefrost at the site not yet effected by thermokarst erosion indicates that Pleistocene aged ice wedges are below the Holocene ice wedges expressed at the surface as distinct patterning, confirming that ice content distribution may not be easily estimated from surface patterning alone. These observations are confirmed by nearby exposures of ice wedges. The results show that the IP measurements are useful for characterizing ice content distribution in permafrost soils may be used to link ground based observations with larger scale estimates that are needed for process and carbon balance modeling of permafrost soils.

  17. Chemical signals of past climate and environment from polar ice cores and firn air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric W

    2012-10-07

    Chemical and isotopic records obtained from polar ice cores have provided some of the most iconic datasets in Earth system science. Here, I discuss how the different records are formed in the ice sheets, emphasising in particular the contrast between chemistry held in the snow/ice phase, and that which is trapped in air bubbles. Air diffusing slowly through the upper firn layers of the ice sheet can also be sampled in large volumes to give more recent historical information on atmospheric composition. The chemical and geophysical issues that have to be solved to interpret ice core data in terms of atmospheric composition and emission changes are also highlighted. Ice cores and firn air have provided particularly strong evidence about recent changes (last few decades to centuries), including otherwise inaccessible data on increases in compounds that are active as greenhouse gases or as agents of stratospheric depletion. On longer timescales (up to 800,000 years in Antarctica), ice cores reveal major changes in biogeochemical cycling, which acted as feedbacks on the very major changes in climate between glacial and interglacial periods.

  18. Breaking the Ice: Strategies for Future European Research in the Polar Oceans - The AURORA BOREALIS Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lembke-Jene, L.; Biebow, N.; Wolff-Boenisch, B.; Thiede, J.; European Research Icebreaker Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Research vessels dedicated to work in polar ice-covered waters have only rarely been built. Their history began with Fritjof Nansen's FRAM, which he used for his famous first crossing of the Arctic Ocean 1893-1896. She served as example for the first generation of polar research vessels, at their time being modern instruments planned with foresight. Ice breaker technology has developed substantially since then. However, it took almost 80 years until this technical advance also reached polar research, when the Russian AKADEMIK FEDEROV, the German POLARSTERN, the Swedish ODEN and the USCG Cutter HEALY were built. All of these house modern laboratories, are ice-breakers capable to move into the deep-Arctic during the summer time and represent the second generation of dedicated polar research vessels. Still, the increasing demand in polar marine research capacities by societies that call for action to better understand climate change, especially in the high latitudes is not matched by adequate facilities and resources. Today, no icebreaker platform exists that is permanently available to the international science community for year-round expeditions into the central Arctic Ocean or heavily ice-infested waters of the polar Southern Ocean around Antarctica. The AURORA BOREALIS concept plans for a heavy research icebreaker, which will enable polar scientists around the world to launch international research expeditions into the central Arctic Ocean and the Antarctic continental shelf seas autonomously during all seasons of the year. The European Research Icebreaker Consortium - AURORA BOREALIS (ERICON-AB) was established in 2008 to plan the scientific, governance, financial, and legal frameworks needed for the construction and operation of this first multi-nationally owned and operated research icebreaker and polar scientific drilling platform. By collaborating together and sharing common infrastructures it is envisioned that European nations make a major contribution to

  19. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  20. New Techniques for Radar Altimetry of Sea Ice and the Polar Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, T. W. K.; Kwok, R.; Egido, A.; Smith, W. H. F.; Cullen, R.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite radar altimetry has proven to be a valuable tool for remote sensing of the polar oceans, with techniques for estimating sea ice thickness and sea surface height in the ice-covered ocean advancing to the point of becoming routine, if not operational, products. Here, we explore new techniques in radar altimetry of the polar oceans and the sea ice cover. First, we present results from fully-focused SAR (FFSAR) altimetry; by accounting for the phase evolution of scatterers in the scene, the FFSAR technique applies an inter-burst coherent integration, potentially over the entire duration that a scatterer remains in the altimeter footprint, which can narrow the effective along track resolution to just 0.5m. We discuss the improvement of using interleaved operation over burst-more operation for applying FFSAR processing to data acquired by future missions, such as a potential CryoSat follow-on. Second, we present simulated sea ice retrievals from the Ka-band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn), the instrument that will be launched on the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in 2021, that is capable of producing swath images of surface elevation. These techniques offer the opportunity to advance our understanding of the physics of the ice-covered oceans, plus new insight into how we interpret more conventional radar altimetry data in these regions.

  1. a Novel Approach to Retrieve Arctic Sea Ice Thickness for Prediction and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brucker, L.; Vernières, G.

    2017-12-01

    In spite of October-November Arctic-sea-ice-volume loss exceeding 7000 km3 in the decade following ICESat launch, most global ocean reanalysis systems are not able to reproduce such a drastic decline. Knowledge of the sea ice properties and its thickness distribution is critical to our understanding of polar ocean processes and the role of the polar regions in the Earth's climate system. Existing large-scale sea ice thickness datasets are derived from freeboard observations made by different satellite altimeters (radar and lidar). These datasets are significantly different due to the remote sensing technique and spacecraft orbit, and they are limited in time. These differences increase the difficulty of using such data for sea ice initialization and assimilation, and increase the challenge for studying sea ice processes and interactions with the ocean and atmosphere. For the first time, we were able to reproduce the Arctic sea ice thickness field at 10 km resolution with success for fall, winter, and spring (April/May depending on melt conditions) from passive microwave data. Our results reveal the same patterns of thickness distribution in the Arctic basin and peripheral seas as CryoSat-2, and the majority of the retrievals are within 0.5 m of CryoSat-2. The range of CryoSat-2 ice thickness is correctly retrieved, including in the upper range (3-5 m). The amplitude is well reproduced too, as the distribution of differences is centered on 0 m (no bias). Some underestimations are visible between islands of the Canadian Archipelago, but due to the size of the field of view our confidence will always be lower in this region where there is land contamination. An initial comparison of the AMSR2 ice thickness with IceBridge airborne products in different sectors (Beaufort sea, central Arctic) demonstrates the quality of the retrievals. In this presentation, we will also quantify the prediction and nowcast gain obtained from assimilating these new retrievals. We carried

  2. Genomic evidence of widespread admixture from polar bears into brown bears during the last ice age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, James A; Heintzman, Peter D; Harris, Kelley; Teasdale, Matthew D; Kapp, Joshua; Soares, André E Rodrigues; Stirling, Ian; Bradley, Daniel; Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Graim, Kiley; Kisleika, Aliaksandr A; Malev, Alexander V; Monaghan, Nigel; Green, Richard E; Shapiro, Beth

    2018-02-20

    Recent genomic analyses have provided substantial evidence for past periods of gene flow from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) into Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos), with some analyses suggesting a link between climate change and genomic introgression. However, because it has mainly been possible to sample bears from the present day, the timing, frequency, and evolutionary significance of this admixture remains unknown. Here, we analyze genomic DNA from three additional and geographically distinct brown bear populations, including two that lived temporally close to the peak of the last ice age. We find evidence of admixture in all three populations, suggesting that admixture between these species has been common in their recent evolutionary history. In addition, analyses of ten fossil bears from the now-extinct Irish population indicate that admixture peaked during the last ice age, when brown bear and polar bear ranges overlapped. Following this peak, the proportion of polar bear ancestry in Irish brown bears declined rapidly until their extinction. Our results support a model in which ice age climate change created geographically widespread conditions conducive to admixture between polar bears and brown bears, as is again occurring today. We postulate that this model will be informative for many admixing species pairs impacted by climate change. Our results highlight the power of paleogenomics to reveal patterns of evolutionary change that are otherwise masked in contemporary data.

  3. Estimation of degree of sea ice ridging based on dual-polarized C-band SAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gegiuc, Alexandru; Similä, Markku; Karvonen, Juha; Lensu, Mikko; Mäkynen, Marko; Vainio, Jouni

    2018-01-01

    For ship navigation in the Baltic Sea ice, parameters such as ice edge, ice concentration, ice thickness and degree of ridging are usually reported daily in manually prepared ice charts. These charts provide icebreakers with essential information for route optimization and fuel calculations. However, manual ice charting requires long analysis times, and detailed analysis of large areas (e.g. Arctic Ocean) is not feasible. Here, we propose a method for automatic estimation of the degree of ice ridging in the Baltic Sea region, based on RADARSAT-2 C-band dual-polarized (HH/HV channels) SAR texture features and sea ice concentration information extracted from Finnish ice charts. The SAR images were first segmented and then several texture features were extracted for each segment. Using the random forest method, we classified them into four classes of ridging intensity and compared them to the reference data extracted from the digitized ice charts. The overall agreement between the ice-chart-based degree of ice ridging and the automated results varied monthly, being 83, 63 and 81 % in January, February and March 2013, respectively. The correspondence between the degree of ice ridging reported in the ice charts and the actual ridge density was validated with data collected during a field campaign in March 2011. In principle the method can be applied to the seasonal sea ice regime in the Arctic Ocean.

  4. Estimation of degree of sea ice ridging based on dual-polarized C-band SAR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gegiuc

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available For ship navigation in the Baltic Sea ice, parameters such as ice edge, ice concentration, ice thickness and degree of ridging are usually reported daily in manually prepared ice charts. These charts provide icebreakers with essential information for route optimization and fuel calculations. However, manual ice charting requires long analysis times, and detailed analysis of large areas (e.g. Arctic Ocean is not feasible. Here, we propose a method for automatic estimation of the degree of ice ridging in the Baltic Sea region, based on RADARSAT-2 C-band dual-polarized (HH/HV channels SAR texture features and sea ice concentration information extracted from Finnish ice charts. The SAR images were first segmented and then several texture features were extracted for each segment. Using the random forest method, we classified them into four classes of ridging intensity and compared them to the reference data extracted from the digitized ice charts. The overall agreement between the ice-chart-based degree of ice ridging and the automated results varied monthly, being 83, 63 and 81 % in January, February and March 2013, respectively. The correspondence between the degree of ice ridging reported in the ice charts and the actual ridge density was validated with data collected during a field campaign in March 2011. In principle the method can be applied to the seasonal sea ice regime in the Arctic Ocean.

  5. Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, E.V.; Ben-David, M.

    2011-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) prefer to live on Arctic sea ice but may swim between ice floes or between sea ice and land. Although anecdotal observations suggest that polar bears are capable of swimming long distances, no data have been available to describe in detail long distance swimming events or the physiological and reproductive consequences of such behavior. Between an initial capture in late August and a recapture in late October 2008, a radio-collared adult female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea made a continuous swim of 687 km over 9 days and then intermittently swam and walked on the sea ice surface an additional 1,800 km. Measures of movement rate, hourly activity, and subcutaneous and external temperature revealed distinct profiles of swimming and walking. Between captures, this polar bear lost 22% of her body mass and her yearling cub. The extraordinary long distance swimming ability of polar bears, which we confirm here, may help them cope with reduced Arctic sea ice. Our observation, however, indicates that long distance swimming in Arctic waters, and travel over deep water pack ice, may result in high energetic costs and compromise reproductive fitness. ?? 2011 US Government.

  6. Filling the Polar Data Gap in Sea Ice Concentration Fields Using Partial Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtenay Strong

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The “polar data gap” is a region around the North Pole where satellite orbit inclination and instrument swath for SMMR and SSM/I-SSMIS satellites preclude retrieval of sea ice concentrations. Data providers make the irregularly shaped data gap round by centering a circular “pole hole mask” over the North Pole. The area within the pole hole mask has conventionally been assumed to be ice-covered for the purpose of sea ice extent calculations, but recent conditions around the perimeter of the mask indicate that this assumption may already be invalid. Here we propose an objective, partial differential equation based model for estimating sea ice concentrations within the area of the pole hole mask. In particular, the sea ice concentration field is assumed to satisfy Laplace’s equation with boundary conditions determined by observed sea ice concentrations on the perimeter of the gap region. This type of idealization in the concentration field has already proved to be quite useful in establishing an objective method for measuring the “width” of the marginal ice zone—a highly irregular, annular-shaped region of the ice pack that interacts with the ocean, and typically surrounds the inner core of most densely packed sea ice. Realistic spatial heterogeneity in the idealized concentration field is achieved by adding a spatially autocorrelated stochastic field with temporally varying standard deviation derived from the variability of observations around the mask. To test the model, we examined composite annual cycles of observation-model agreement for three circular regions adjacent to the pole hole mask. The composite annual cycle of observation-model correlation ranged from approximately 0.6 to 0.7, and sea ice concentration mean absolute deviations were of order 10 − 2 or smaller. The model thus provides a computationally simple approach to solving the increasingly important problem of how to fill the polar data gap. Moreover, this

  7. Getting around Antarctica: new high-resolution mappings of the grounded and freely-floating boundaries of the Antarctic ice sheet created for the International Polar Year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bindschadler

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Two ice-dynamic transitions of the Antarctic ice sheet – the boundary of grounded ice features and the freely-floating boundary – are mapped at 15-m resolution by participants of the International Polar Year project ASAID using customized software combining Landsat-7 imagery and ICESat/GLAS laser altimetry. The grounded ice boundary is 53 610 km long; 74 % abuts to floating ice shelves or outlet glaciers, 19 % is adjacent to open or sea-ice covered ocean, and 7 % of the boundary ice terminates on land. The freely-floating boundary, called here the hydrostatic line, is the most landward position on ice shelves that expresses the full amplitude of oscillating ocean tides. It extends 27 521 km and is discontinuous. Positional (one-sigma accuracies of the grounded ice boundary vary an order of magnitude ranging from ±52 m for the land and open-ocean terminating segments to ±502 m for the outlet glaciers. The hydrostatic line is less well positioned with errors over 2 km. Elevations along each line are selected from 6 candidate digital elevation models based on their agreement with ICESat elevation values and surface shape inferred from the Landsat imagery. Elevations along the hydrostatic line are converted to ice thicknesses by applying a firn-correction factor and a flotation criterion. BEDMAP-compiled data and other airborne data are compared to the ASAID elevations and ice thicknesses to arrive at quantitative (one-sigma uncertainties of surface elevations of ±3.6, ±9.6, ±11.4, ±30 and ±100 m for five ASAID-assigned confidence levels. Over one-half of the surface elevations along the grounded ice boundary and over one-third of the hydrostatic line elevations are ranked in the highest two confidence categories. A comparison between ASAID-calculated ice shelf thicknesses and BEDMAP-compiled data indicate a thin-ice bias of 41.2 ± 71.3 m for the ASAID ice thicknesses. The relationship between the seaward offset of the hydrostatic line

  8. Water on Mars: Inventory, distribution, and possible sources of polar ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, S. M.

    1992-01-01

    Theoretical considerations and various lines of morphologic evidence suggest that, in addition to the normal seasonal and climatic exchange of H2O that occurs between the Martian polar caps, atmosphere, and mid to high latitude regolith, large volumes of water have been introduced into the planet's long term hydrologic cycle by the sublimation of equatorial ground ice, impacts, catastrophic flooding, and volcanism. Under the climatic conditions that are thought to have prevailed on Mars throughout the past 3 to 4 b.y., much of this water is expected to have been cold trapped at the poles. The amount of polar ice contributed by each of the planet's potential crustal sources is discussed and estimated. The final analysis suggests that only 5 to 15 pct. of this potential inventory is now in residence at the poles.

  9. Methanesulfonic acid (MSA) migration in polar ice: data synthesis and theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Matthew; Das, Sarah B.; Marchal, Olivier; Evans, Matthew J.

    2017-11-01

    Methanesulfonic acid (MSA; CH3SO3H) in polar ice is a unique proxy of marine primary productivity, synoptic atmospheric transport, and regional sea-ice behavior. However, MSA can be mobile within the firn and ice matrix, a post-depositional process that is well known but poorly understood and documented, leading to uncertainties in the integrity of the MSA paleoclimatic signal. Here, we use a compilation of 22 ice core MSA records from Greenland and Antarctica and a model of soluble impurity transport in order to comprehensively investigate the vertical migration of MSA from summer layers, where MSA is originally deposited, to adjacent winter layers in polar ice. We find that the shallowest depth of MSA migration in our compilation varies over a wide range (˜ 2 to 400 m) and is positively correlated with snow accumulation rate and negatively correlated with ice concentration of Na+ (typically the most abundant marine cation). Although the considered soluble impurity transport model provides a useful mechanistic framework for studying MSA migration, it remains limited by inadequate constraints on key physico-chemical parameters - most notably, the diffusion coefficient of MSA in cold ice (DMS). We derive a simplified version of the model, which includes DMS as the sole parameter, in order to illuminate aspects of the migration process. Using this model, we show that the progressive phase alignment of MSA and Na+ concentration peaks observed along a high-resolution West Antarctic core is most consistent with 10-12 m2 s-1 DMS DMS values previously estimated from laboratory studies. More generally, our data synthesis and model results suggest that (i) MSA migration may be fairly ubiquitous, particularly at coastal and (or) high-accumulation regions across Greenland and Antarctica; and (ii) can significantly change annual and multiyear MSA concentration averages. Thus, in most cases, caution should be exercised when interpreting polar ice core MSA records, although

  10. ACTIVITY OF LICHENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW AND ICE (18th Symposium on Polar Biology)

    OpenAIRE

    Ludger, KAPPEN; Burkhard, SCHROETER

    1997-01-01

    A major aim of our investigations is to explain the adaptation of vegetation to the peculiar environmental conditions in polar regions. Our concept describes the main limiting and favorable factors influencing photosynthetic production of cryptogams, mainly lichens. Snow and ice-usually stress factors to the activity of plants-can be effectively used by lichens because of their poikilohydrous nature. Light, the basic driving force for photosynthetic activity, may be deleterious under certain ...

  11. IceCube Polar Virtual Reality exhibit: immersive learning for learners of all ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, J.; Bravo Gallart, S.; Chase, A.; Dougherty, P.; Gagnon, D.; Pronto, K.; Rush, M.; Tredinnick, R.

    2017-12-01

    The IceCube Polar Virtual Reality project is an innovative, interactive exhibit that explains the operation and science of a flagship experiment in polar research, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The exhibit allows users to travel from the South Pole, where the detector is located, to the furthest reaches of the universe, learning how the detection of high-energy neutrinos has opened a new view to the universe. This novel exhibit combines a multitouch tabletop display system and commercially available virtual reality (VR) head-mounted displays to enable informal STEM learning of polar research. The exhibit, launched in early November 2017 during the Wisconsin Science Festival in Madison, WI, will study how immersive VR can enhance informal STEM learning. The foundation of this project is built upon a strong collaborative effort between the Living Environments Laboratory (LEL), the Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center (WIPAC), and the Field Day Laboratory groups from the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. The project is funded through an NSF Advancing Informal STEM Learning (AISL) grant, under a special call for engaging students and the public in polar research. This exploratory pathways project seeks to build expertise to allow future extensions. The plan is to submit a subsequent AISL Broad Implementation proposal to add more 3D environments for other Antarctic research topics and locations in the future. We will describe the current implementation of the project and discuss the challenges and opportunities of working with an interdisciplinary team of scientists and technology and education researchers. We will also present preliminary assessment results, which seek to answer questions such as: Did users gain a better understanding of IceCube research from interacting with the exhibit? Do both technologies (touch table and VR headset) provide the same level of engagement? Is one technology better suited for specific learning outcomes?

  12. Predicting Maps of Green Growth in Košice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poorova, Zuzana; Vranayova, Zuzana

    2017-10-01

    The paper deals with the changing of the traditional roofs in the city of Košice into green roofs. Possible areas of city housing estates, after taking into account the conditions of each of them (types of buildings, statics of buildings), are listed in the paper. The research is picturing the prediction maps of Košice city from 2017 to 2042 in 5-years interval. The paper is a segment of a dissertation work focusing on changing traditional roofs into green roofs with the aim to retain water, calculate the amount of retained water and show possibilities how to use this water.

  13. A study of the decontamination procedures used for chemical analysis of polar deep ice cores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takayuki Miyake

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the decontamination procedures used on polar deep ice cores before chemical analyses such as measurements of the concentrations of iron species and dust (microparticles. We optimized cutting and melting protocols for decontamination using chemically ultraclean polyethylene bags and simulated ice samples made from ultrapure water. For dust and ion species including acetate, which represented a high level of contamination, we were able to decrease contamination to below several μg l^ for ion concentrations and below 10000 particles ml^ for the dust concentration. These concentration levels of ion species and dust are assumed to be present in the Dome Fuji ice core during interglacial periods. Decontamination of the ice core was achieved by cutting away approximately 3 mm of the outside of a sample and by melting away approximately 30% of a sample's weight. Furthermore, we also report the preparation protocols for chemical analyses of the 2nd Dome Fuji ice core, including measurements of ion and dust concentrations, pH, electric conductivity (EC, and stable isotope ratios of water (δD and δO, based on the results of the investigation of the decontamination procedures.

  14. PolarCube - A CubeSat to Monitor the Sea Ice and Atmosphere Temperature Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, R. L.; Sanders, B.; Gasiewski, A. J.; Periasamy, L.; Gallaher, D. W.; Scambos, T. A.

    2012-12-01

    "PolarCube" is a 3U CubeSat satellite, based on an existing bus design (ALL-STAR) and an Earth-sensing passive microwave instrument to provide atmospheric temperature profile measurements and related sea ice/ice-free ocean detection and mapping. The PolarCube mission will provide the first observations of the 118.7503 GHz O2 resonance from space, and thus on a global basis will advance microwave spectroscopy and extend what has been observed on atmospheric temperature structure at high spatial resolution to global scales. It will significantly improve the spatial resolution of current space borne microwave temperature sounding sensors by a factor of over three, thus providing insight into the thermal structure of the atmosphere within clouds and over Arctic leads. The student engineering design team face many challenges beyond the actual design and construction of PolarCube. Satellite operations, communications, and data management protocols must be developed and tested. Assuming the first CubeSat is successful, we envision orbiting multiple "PolarCube" satellites to increase temporal and spatial observation frequencies. Management of multiple satellites offers new challenges in the areas of orbital configurations for optimal science return, satellite and ground station operational coordination, and science data analysis.

  15. Organic molecules in the polar ice: from chemical analysis to environmental proxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbante, Carlo; Zennaro, Piero; Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Benton, Alisa K.; Wolff, Eric W.; Kalberer, Markus; Kirchgeorg, Torben; Zangrando, Roberta; Barbaro, Elena; Gambaro, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The molecular and isotopic compositions of organic matter buried in ice contains information that helps reconstruct past environmental conditions, evaluate histories of climate change, and assess impacts of humans on ecosystems. In recent years novel analytical techniques were developed to quantify molecular compounds in ice cores. As an example, biomass burning markers, including monosaccharide anhydrides, lightweight carboxylic acids, lignin and resin pyrolysis products, black carbon, and charcoal records help in reconstructing past fire activity across seasonal to millennial time scales. Terrestrial biomarkers, such as plant waxes (e.g. long-chain n-alkanes) are also a promising paleo vegetation proxy in ice core studies. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are ubiquitous pollutants recently detected in ice cores. These hydrocarbons primarily originate from incomplete combustion of organic matter and fossil fuels (e.g. diesel engines, domestic heating, industrial combustion) and therefore can be tracers of past combustion activities. In order to be suitable for paloeclimate purposes, organic molecular markers detected in ice cores should include the following important features. Markers have to be stable under oxidizing atmospheric conditions, and ideally should not react with hydroxyl radicals, during their transport to polar regions. Organic markers must be released in large amounts in order to be detected at remote distances from the sources. Proxies must be specific, in order to differentiate them from other markers with multiple sources. The extraction of glaciochemical information from ice cores is challenging due to the low concentrations of some impurities, thereby demanding rigorous control of external contamination sources and sensitive analytical techniques. Here, we review the analysis and use of organic molecules in ice as proxies of important environmental and climatic processes.

  16. Novel Highly Branched Isoprenoid Biomarkers as Indicators of Sea-Ice Diatoms: Implications for Historical Sea-Ice Records and Future Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massé, G.; Belt, S. T.; Rowland, S. J.; Poulin, M.; Sicre, M.; Michel, C.

    2006-12-01

    Polar oceans are important contributors to the Earth's climate systems. In particular, sea-ice influences the exchanges of heat and moisture between polar oceans and atmosphere, and its high albedo means that it reflects much of incoming solar radiation. In addition, when melting, the outflow of low-salinity surface water impacts on the global deep oceanic circulation, which can influence the climate to a large extent. Therefore, increasing our knowledge about how changes in past sea-ice extent contributes to our understanding of the actual changes in climate is critical if we aim to succeed in predicting future changes. Direct global estimates of sea-ice cover derived from remote sensing observations are now routine but have only been possible since the 1970's. Previously, analysis of data derived from early ship records have been carried out, providing an observed sea ice record for the 20th century and earlier. Such records have been based on archive materials including lighthouse diaries, ships logs, travellers journals and newspaper reports. However, only the most recent direct estimations of sea-ice cover are believed to be reliable and therefore, longer time scales studies are only possible using proxy data sources. In the current project, we are investigating the potential to use chemical biomarkers of sea-ice associated diatoms to serve as a proxy of sea-ice cover in the Arctic. To date, our investigations have revealed that a restricted number of diatoms biosynthesise a class of secondary metabolite chemicals termed highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs). These chemicals are ubiquitous to marine sediments, but only one structural form of the HBIs exists in Arctic sea-ice. In turn, this chemical (a C25 HBI mono-unsaturated alkene) can almost certainly be associated with some Haslea spp. which are known to occur in Arctic sea-ice. Indeed, we have identified three such species in our work and now have them in culture. In order for the HBI biomarker to be useful

  17. Prediction of ice accretion and anti-icing heating power on wind turbine blades using standard commercial software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villalpando, Fernando; Reggio, Marcelo; Ilinca, Adrian

    2016-01-01

    An approach to numerically simulate ice accretion on 2D sections of a wind turbine blade is presented. The method uses standard commercial ANSYS-Fluent and Matlab tools. The Euler-Euler formulation is used to calculate the water impingement on the airfoil, and a UDF (Used Defined Function) has been devised to turn the airfoil's solid wall into a permeable boundary. Mayer's thermodynamic model is implemented in Matlab for computing ice thickness and for updating the airfoil contour. A journal file is executed to systematize the procedure: meshing, droplet trajectory calculation, thermodynamic model application for computing ice accretion, and the updating of airfoil contours. The proposed ice prediction strategy has been validated using iced airfoil contours obtained experimentally in the AMIL refrigerated wind tunnel (Anti-icing Materials International Laboratory). Finally, a numerical prediction method has been generated for anti-icing assessment, and its results compared with data obtained in this laboratory. - Highlights: • A methodology for ice accretion prediction using commercial software is proposed. • Euler model gives better prediction of airfoil water collection with detached flow. • A source term is used to change from a solid wall to a permeable wall in Fluent. • Energy needed for ice-accretion mitigation system is predicted.

  18. Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to probabilistic prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales. This approach is applied to monthly time series of state-of-the-art data-adaptive decompositions of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" for up to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included intrinsically in the formulation of our non-Markovian MSM models allow for improvements of the prediction skill of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions on the one hand, and of September Sea Ice Extent, on the other. Further improvements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation and explore next-generation data-adaptive decompositions, namely modification of Principal Oscillation Patterns (POPs) and rotated Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA).

  19. Inter-hemispheric comparisons of SPE-associated Impulsive Nitrate Enhancements in Polar Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepko, L.; Spence, H. E.; Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Curran, M.; Dreschhoff, G. A.

    2006-05-01

    Several studies have suggested an association between impulsive nitrate enhancements observed in polar ice and solar proton events (SPEs). However, the validity of this association is still the subject of some controversy. One difficulty in addressing this controversy is the inherently high noise level of unconsolidated firn, which typically constitutes the top few tens of meters of ice cores. This high noise level hampers identification of impulsive nitrate enhancements during the space-age, when routine solar proton measurements are available. To overcome this difficulty we examine cores from both hemispheres, including Summit (Greenland), Windless Bight (Antarctica) and Law Dome (Antarctica). Cross-correlation of the cores reduces the effect of local noise and also provides a picture of the global response and insight into seasonal dependencies. We will compare our list of globally observed impulsive nitrate enhancements to the solar proton record.

  20. Ices on Mercury: Chemistry of volatiles in permanently cold areas of Mercury's north polar region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delitsky, M. L.; Paige, D. A.; Siegler, M. A.; Harju, E. R.; Schriver, D.; Johnson, R. E.; Travnicek, P.

    2017-01-01

    Observations by the MESSENGER spacecraft during its flyby and orbital observations of Mercury in 2008-2015 indicated the presence of cold icy materials hiding in permanently-shadowed craters in Mercury's north polar region. These icy condensed volatiles are thought to be composed of water ice and frozen organics that can persist over long geologic timescales and evolve under the influence of the Mercury space environment. Polar ices never see solar photons because at such high latitudes, sunlight cannot reach over the crater rims. The craters maintain a permanently cold environment for the ices to persist. However, the magnetosphere will supply a beam of ions and electrons that can reach the frozen volatiles and induce ice chemistry. Mercury's magnetic field contains magnetic cusps, areas of focused field lines containing trapped magnetospheric charged particles that will be funneled onto the Mercury surface at very high latitudes. This magnetic highway will act to direct energetic protons, ions and electrons directly onto the polar ices. The radiation processing of the ices could convert them into higher-order organics and dark refractory materials whose spectral characteristics are consistent with low-albedo materials observed by MESSENGER Laser Altimeter (MLA) and RADAR instruments. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR), scattered UV light and solar energetic particles (SEP) also supply energy for ice processing. Cometary impacts will deposit H2O, CH4, CO2 and NH3 raw materials onto Mercury's surface which will migrate to the poles and be converted to more complex Csbnd Hsbnd Nsbnd Osbnd S-containing molecules such as aldehydes, amines, alcohols, cyanates, ketones, hydroxides, carbon oxides and suboxides, organic acids and others. Based on lab experiments in the literature, possible specific compounds produced may be: H2CO, HCOOH, CH3OH, HCO, H2CO3, CH3C(O)CH3, C2O, CxO, C3O2, CxOy, CH3CHO, CH3OCH2CH2OCH3, C2H6, CxHy, NO2, HNO2, HNO3, NH2OH, HNO, N2H2, N3, HCN, Na2O, Na

  1. Under-Ice Science in the Polar Regions with Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, C.; Murphy, C.; Singh, H.; Das, S. B.; Jackson, R. H.; Kukulya, A.; Littlefield, R.; Maksym, T. L.; Plueddemann, A. J.; Sohn, R. A.; Straneo, F.; Wilkinson, J.

    2012-12-01

    Developments in autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) technology over the last decade have enabled scientists to study areas of the ocean at high latitude that were previously unapproachable. In particular, advances in acoustic communications, robotic autonomy and navigation, and compact sensor technology allow AUVs to work in close proximity to sea ice, glacial fronts, and the sea floor under multi-year pack ice. We describe the technology that enabled several expeditions to both polar regions that have used Seabed-class AUVs as the primary platform for making scientific measurements. We also describe current and upcoming missions using the smaller Seabed-100 and REMUS-100 AUVs for shallow-water work near glacial fronts. Several problems must be solved in order to successfully use robots under ice. Acoustic communications must be robust enough for operators on the surface to inform the AUV of changing conditions so that the vehicle can safely return to open water on the surface - during the AGAVE and IceBell expeditions, we experienced sea ice drift rates of tens of centimeters per second, and moving ice floes that constrained the availability of open water. AUV navigation must be flexible enough for the robot to switch reference frames during a mission depending on the conditions and on the scientific objective. During a single deployment during the IceBell expedition, it was typical for the robot to switch from ship-relative (using acoustic transponders), to ice-relative (using a doppler velocity log), to ice-relative (using a distinct set of acoustic transponders), and back again; an AUV may also need to navigate relative to the sea floor (as during the AGAVE expedition). Making ice-relative measurements also requires taking ice floe rotation into account, and on-board navigation relative to a rotating frame may be necessary. Finally, specialized scenarios such as when navigating near a glacial front require navigation relative to vertical, rather than horizontal

  2. Prediction of dry ice mass for firefighting robot actuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajala, M. T.; Khan, Md R.; Shafie, A. A.; Salami, MJE; Mohamad Nor, M. I.

    2017-11-01

    The limitation in the performance of electric actuated firefighting robots in high-temperature fire environment has led to research on the alternative propulsion system for the mobility of firefighting robots in such environment. Capitalizing on the limitations of these electric actuators we suggested a gas-actuated propulsion system in our earlier study. The propulsion system is made up of a pneumatic motor as the actuator (for the robot) and carbon dioxide gas (self-generated from dry ice) as the power source. To satisfy the consumption requirement (9cfm) of the motor for efficient actuation of the robot in the fire environment, the volume of carbon dioxide gas, as well as the corresponding mass of the dry ice that will produce the required volume for powering and actuation of the robot, must be determined. This article, therefore, presents the computational analysis to predict the volumetric requirement and the dry ice mass sufficient to power a carbon dioxide gas propelled autonomous firefighting robot in a high-temperature environment. The governing equation of the sublimation of dry ice to carbon dioxide is established. An operating time of 2105.53s and operating pressure ranges from 137.9kPa to 482.65kPa were achieved following the consumption rate of the motor. Thus, 8.85m3 is computed as the volume requirement of the CAFFR while the corresponding dry ice mass for the CAFFR actuation ranges from 21.67kg to 75.83kg depending on the operating pressure.

  3. Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

    2010-01-01

    Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

  4. The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

    2010-01-01

    Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

  5. Regeneration of Little Ice Age bryophytes emerging from a polar glacier with implications of totipotency in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Farge, Catherine; Williams, Krista H; England, John H

    2013-06-11

    Across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, widespread ice retreat during the 20th century has sharply accelerated since 2004. In Sverdrup Pass, central Ellesmere Island, rapid glacier retreat is exposing intact plant communities whose radiocarbon dates demonstrate entombment during the Little Ice Age (1550-1850 AD). The exhumed bryophyte assemblages have exceptional structural integrity (i.e., setae, stem structures, leaf hair points) and have remarkable species richness (60 of 144 extant taxa in Sverdrup Pass). Although the populations are often discolored (blackened), some have developed green stem apices or lateral branches suggesting in vivo regrowth. To test their biological viability, Little Ice Age populations emerging from the ice margin were collected for in vitro growth experiments. Our results include a unique successful regeneration of subglacial bryophytes following 400 y of ice entombment. This finding demonstrates the totipotent capacity of bryophytes, the ability of a cell to dedifferentiate into a meristematic state (analogous to stem cells) and develop a new plant. In polar ecosystems, regrowth of bryophyte tissue buried by ice for 400 y significantly expands our understanding of their role in recolonization of polar landscapes (past or present). Regeneration of subglacial bryophytes broadens the concept of Ice Age refugia, traditionally confined to survival of land plants to sites above and beyond glacier margins. Our results emphasize the unrecognized resilience of bryophytes, which are commonly overlooked vis-a-vis their contribution to the establishment, colonization, and maintenance of polar terrestrial ecosystems.

  6. The Contribution of Water Ice Clouds to the Water Cycle in the North Polar Region of Mars: Preliminary Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, D. S.; Tamppari, L. K.

    2000-01-01

    While it has long been known that Mars' north residual polar cap and the Martian regolith are significant sources of atmospheric water vapor, the amount of water vapor observed in the northern spring season by the Viking Mars Atmospheric Water Detector instrument (MAWD) cannot be attributed to cap and regolith sources alone. Kahn suggested that ice hazes may be the mechanism by which additional water is supplied to the Martian atmosphere. Additionally, a significant decrease in atmospheric water vapor was observed in the late northern summer that could not be correlated with the return of the cold seasonal C02 ice. While the detection of water ice clouds on Mars indicate that water exists in Mars' atmosphere in several different phases, the extent to which water ice clouds play a role in moving water through the Martian atmosphere remains uncertain. Work by Bass et. al. suggested that the time dependence of water ice cap seasonal variability and the increase in atmospheric water vapor depended on the polar cap center reaching 200K, the night time saturation temperature. Additionally, they demonstrated that a decrease in atmospheric water vapor may be attributed to deposition of water ice onto the surface of the polar cap; temperatures were still too warm at this time in the summer for the deposition of carbon dioxide. However, whether water ice clouds contribute significantly to this variability is unknown. Additional information is contained in original extended abstract.

  7. Movement of a female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) in the Kara Sea during the summer sea-ice break-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozhnov, V V; Platonov, N G; Naidenko, S V; Mordvintsev, I N; Ivanov, E A

    2017-01-01

    The polar bear movement trajectory in relation to onset date of the sea-ice break-up was studied in the coastal zone of the Taimyr Peninsula, eastern part of the Kara Sea, using as an example a female polar bear tagged by a radio collar with an Argos satellite transmitter. Analysis of the long-term pattern of ice melting and tracking, by means of satellite telemetry, of the female polar bear who followed the ice-edge outgoing in the north-eastern direction (in summer 2012) suggests that direction of the polar bear movement depends precisely on the direction of the sea-ice cover break-up.

  8. CryoSat-2 swath interferometric altimetry for mapping polar land ice terrain and elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourmelen, N.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Foresta, L.; Shepherd, A.; Muir, A.; Hogg, A. E.; Roca, M.; Nagler, T.; Baker, S.; Drinkwater, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Reference and repeat-observations of Glacier and Ice Sheet Margin (GISM) topography are critical to identify changes in ice thickness, provide estimates of mass gain or loss and thus quantify the contribution of the cryosphere to sea level change. The lack of such sustained observations was identified in the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Cryosphere Theme Report as a major shortcoming. Conventional altimetry measurements over GISMs exist, but coverage has been sparse and characterized by coarse ground resolution. Additionally, and more importantly, they proved ineffective in the presence of steep slopes, a typical feature of GISM areas. Since the majority of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass loss is estimated to lie within 100 km from the coast, but only about 10% is surveyed, there is the need for more robust and dense observations of GISMs, in both time and space. The ESA Altimetry mission CryoSat aims at gaining better insight into the evolution of the Cryosphere. CryoSat's revolutionary design features a Synthetic Interferometric Radar Altimeter (SIRAL), with two antennas for interferometry. The corresponding SAR Interferometer (SARIn) mode of operation increases spatial resolution while resolving the angular origin of off-nadir echoes occurring over sloping terrain. The SARIn mode is activated over GISMs and the elevation for the Point Of Closest Approach (POCA) is a standard product of the CryoSat mission. Here we present, through a wide range of examples in Polar settings, a new approach for more comprehensively exploiting the SARIn mode of CryoSat and produce ice elevation and elevation change with enhanced spatial resolution compared to standard CryoSat elevation products. In this so-called CryoSat Swath SARIn (CSSARIn) approach, the signal beyond the POCA is analysed, leading to between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude more elevation measurements than conventional approaches, and providing elevation where conventional POCA fails. We will

  9. The Relevance of Grain Dissection for Grain Size Reduction in Polar Ice: Insights from Numerical Models and Ice Core Microstructure Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Steinbach

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The flow of ice depends on the properties of the aggregate of individual ice crystals, such as grain size or lattice orientation distributions. Therefore, an understanding of the processes controlling ice micro-dynamics is needed to ultimately develop a physically based macroscopic ice flow law. We investigated the relevance of the process of grain dissection as a grain-size-modifying process in natural ice. For that purpose, we performed numerical multi-process microstructure modeling and analyzed microstructure and crystallographic orientation maps from natural deep ice-core samples from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM project. Full crystallographic orientations measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD have been used together with c-axis orientations using an optical technique (Fabric Analyser. Grain dissection is a feature of strain-induced grain boundary migration. During grain dissection, grain boundaries bulge into a neighboring grain in an area of high dislocation energy and merge with the opposite grain boundary. This splits the high dislocation-energy grain into two parts, effectively decreasing the local grain size. Currently, grain size reduction in ice is thought to be achieved by either the progressive transformation from dislocation walls into new high-angle grain boundaries, called subgrain rotation or polygonisation, or bulging nucleation that is assisted by subgrain rotation. Both our time-resolved numerical modeling and NEEM ice core samples show that grain dissection is a common mechanism during ice deformation and can provide an efficient process to reduce grain sizes and counter-act dynamic grain-growth in addition to polygonisation or bulging nucleation. Thus, our results show that solely strain-induced boundary migration, in absence of subgrain rotation, can reduce grain sizes in polar ice, in particular if strain energy gradients are high. We describe the microstructural characteristics that can be

  10. Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Kalberer, Markus; King, Amy C. F.; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Wolff, Eric W.; Zennaro, Piero

    2018-03-01

    Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

  11. Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Kalberer, Markus; King, Amy C.F.; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Wolff, Eric W.; Zennaro, Piero

    2018-01-01

    Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

  12. Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

  13. Evolution of Martian polar landscapes - Interplay of long-term variations in perennial ice cover and dust storm intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutts, J. A.; Blasius, K. R.; Roberts, W. J.

    1979-01-01

    The discovery of a new type of Martian polar terrain, called undulating plain, is reported and the evolution of the plains and other areas of the Martian polar region is discussed in terms of the trapping of dust by the perennial ice cover. High-resolution Viking Orbiter 2 observations of the north polar terrain reveal perennially ice-covered surfaces with low relief, wavelike, regularly spaced, parallel ridges and troughs (undulating plains) occupying areas of the polar terrain previously thought to be flat, and associated with troughs of considerable local relief which exhibit at least partial annual melting. It is proposed that the wavelike topography of the undulating plains originates from long-term periodic variations in cyclical dust precipitation at the margin of a growing or receding perennial polar cap in response to changes in insolation. The troughs are proposed to originate from areas of steep slope in the undulating terrain which have lost their perennial ice cover and have become incapable of trapping dust. The polar landscape thus appears to record the migrations, expansions and contractions of the Martian polar cap.

  14. Origin of ice diapirism, true polar wander, subsurface ocean, and tiger stripes of Enceladus driven by compositional convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, J.; Stegman, D. R.; May, D.

    2009-12-01

    We consider the scenario in which the presence of ammonia in the bulk composition of Enceladus plays a pivotal role in its thermochemical evolution. Because ammonia reduces the melting temperature of the ice shell by 100 K below that of pure water ice, small amounts of tidal dissipation can power an “ammonia feedback” mechansim that leads to secondary differentiation of Enceladus within the ice shell. This leads to compositionally distinct zones at the base of the ice shell arranged such that a layer of lower density (and compositionally buoyant) pure water ice underlies the undifferentiated ammonia-dihydrate ice layer above. We then consider a large scale instability arising from the pure water ice layer, and use a numerical model to explore the dynamics of compositional convection within the ice shell of Enceladus. The instability of the layer can easily account for a diapir that is hemispherical in scale. As it rises to the surface, it co-advects the warm internal temperatures towards the outer layers of the satellite. This advected heat facilitates the generation of a subsurface ocean within the ice shell of Enceladus. This scenario can simultaneously account for the origin of asymmetry in surface deformation observed on Enceladus as well as two global features inferred to exist: the a large density anomaly within the interior and a subsurface ocean underneath the south polar region.

  15. Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimbach, Patrick [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2016-02-06

    A main research objectives of PISCEES is the development of formal methods for quantifying uncertainties in ice sheet modeling. Uncertainties in simulating and projecting mass loss from the polar ice sheets arise primarily from initial conditions, surface and basal boundary conditions, and model parameters. In general terms, two main chains of uncertainty propagation may be identified: 1. inverse propagation of observation and/or prior onto posterior control variable uncertainties; 2. forward propagation of prior or posterior control variable uncertainties onto those of target output quantities of interest (e.g., climate indices or ice sheet mass loss). A related goal is the development of computationally efficient methods for producing initial conditions for an ice sheet that are close to available present-day observations and essentially free of artificial model drift, which is required in order to be useful for model projections (“initialization problem”). To be of maximum value, such optimal initial states should be accompanied by “useful” uncertainty estimates that account for the different sources of uncerainties, as well as the degree to which the optimum state is constrained by available observations. The PISCEES proposal outlined two approaches for quantifying uncertainties. The first targets the full exploration of the uncertainty in model projections with sampling-based methods and a workflow managed by DAKOTA (the main delivery vehicle for software developed under QUEST). This is feasible for low-dimensional problems, e.g., those with a handful of global parameters to be inferred. This approach can benefit from derivative/adjoint information, but it is not necessary, which is why it often referred to as “non-intrusive”. The second approach makes heavy use of derivative information from model adjoints to address quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensions (e.g., basal boundary conditions in ice sheet models). The use of local gradient, or

  16. Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

  17. Strong linkage of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) to sea ice algae-produced carbon: Evidence from stomach content, fatty acid and stable isotope analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohlbach, Doreen; Schaafsma, Fokje L.; Graeve, Martin; Lebreton, Benoit; Lange, Benjamin Allen; David, Carmen; Vortkamp, Martina; Flores, Hauke

    2017-03-01

    The polar cod (Boreogadus saida) is considered an ecological key species, because it reaches high stock biomasses and constitutes an important carbon source for seabirds and marine mammals in high-Arctic ecosystems. Young polar cod (1-2 years) are often associated with the underside of sea ice. To evaluate the impact of changing Arctic sea ice habitats on polar cod, we examined the diet composition and quantified the contribution of ice algae-produced carbon (αIce) to the carbon budget of polar cod. Young polar cod were sampled in the ice-water interface layer in the central Arctic Ocean during late summer 2012. Diets and carbon sources of these fish were examined using 4 approaches: (1) stomach content analysis, (2) fatty acid (FA) analysis, (3) bulk nitrogen and carbon stable isotope analysis (BSIA) and (4) compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) of FAs. The ice-associated (sympagic) amphipod Apherusa glacialis dominated the stomach contents by mass, indicating a high importance of sympagic fauna in young polar cod diets. The biomass of food measured in stomachs implied constant feeding at daily rates of ∼1.2% body mass per fish, indicating the potential for positive growth. FA profiles of polar cod indicated that diatoms were the primary carbon source, indirectly obtained via amphipods and copepods. The αIce using bulk isotope data from muscle was estimated to be >90%. In comparison, αIce based on CSIA ranged from 34 to 65%, with the highest estimates from muscle and the lowest from liver tissue. Overall, our results indicate a strong dependency of polar cod on ice-algae produced carbon. This suggests that young polar cod may be particularly vulnerable to changes in the distribution and structure of sea ice habitats. Due to the ecological key role of polar cod, changes at the base of the sea ice-associated food web are likely to affect the higher trophic levels of high-Arctic ecosystems.

  18. Impact of bacterial ice nucleating particles on weather predicted by a numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahyoun, Maher; Korsholm, Ulrik S.; Sørensen, Jens H.; Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Finster, Kai; Gosewinkel, Ulrich; Nielsen, Niels W.

    2017-12-01

    Bacterial ice-nucleating particles (INP) have the ability to facilitate ice nucleation from super-cooled cloud droplets at temperatures just below the melting point. Bacterial INP have been detected in cloud water, precipitation, and dry air, hence they may have an impact on weather and climate. In modeling studies, the potential impact of bacteria on ice nucleation and precipitation formation on global scale is still uncertain due to their small concentration compared to other types of INP, i.e. dust. Those earlier studies did not account for the yet undetected high concentration of nanoscale fragments of bacterial INP, which may be found free or attached to soil dust in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud ice, precipitation and global solar radiation in different weather scenarios to changes in the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP, regardless of their size. For this purpose, a module that calculates the probability of ice nucleation as a function of ice nucleation rate and bacterial INP fraction was developed and implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. The threshold value for the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP needed to produce a 1% increase in cloud ice was determined at 10-5 to 10-4. We also found that increasing this fraction causes a perturbation in the forecast, leading to significant differences in cloud ice and smaller differences in convective and total precipitation and in net solar radiation reaching the surface. These effects were most pronounced in local convective events. Our results show that bacterial INP can be considered as a trigger factor for precipitation, but not an enhancement factor.

  19. An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a Changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    B) sea ice volume. The EXP ensemble is initialized with 1/5 of CNTL snow depths, thus resulting in a reduced snow cover and lower summer albedo ...thicker is thought to be predictable for a longer time period than thinner sea ice. In our experiments, we investigated how changes in snow cover affect...predictability in the CESM1. Snow cover may be particularly relevant to summer sea ice predictability, as it affects surface radiative fluxes and

  20. Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

    2014-09-16

    This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

  1. Massive CO2 Ice Deposits Sequestered in the South Polar Layered Deposits of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Roger J.; Davis, Brian J.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Byrne, Shane; Mellon, Michael T.; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Campbell, Bruce A.; Carter, Lynn M.; Smith, Isaac B.; Holt, John W.; Smrekar, Suzanne E.; Nunes, Daniel C.; Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Egan, Anthony F.; Titus, Timothy N.; Seu, Roberto

    2011-01-01

    Shallow Radar soundings from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter reveal a buried deposit of carbon dioxide (CO2) ice within the south polar layered deposits of Mars with a volume of 9500 to 12,500 cubic kilometers, about 30 times that previously estimated for the south pole residual cap. The deposit occurs within a stratigraphic unit that is uniquely marked by collapse features and other evidence of interior CO2 volatile release. If released into the atmosphere at times of high obliquity, the CO2 reservoir would increase the atmospheric mass by up to 80%, leading to more frequent and intense dust storms and to more regions where liquid water could persist without boiling.

  2. Muon polarization in the MEG experiment: predictions and measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldini, A.M.; Dussoni, S.; Galli, L.; Grassi, M.; Sergiampietri, F.; Signorelli, G.; Bao, Y.; Hildebrandt, M.; Kettle, P.R.; Mtchedlishvili, A.; Papa, A.; Ritt, S.; Baracchini, E.; Bemporad, C.; Cei, F.; D'Onofrio, A.; Nicolo, D.; Tenchini, F.; Berg, F.; Hodge, Z.; Rutar, G.; Biasotti, M.; Gatti, F.; Pizzigoni, G.; Boca, G.; De Bari, A.; Cattaneo, P.W.; Rossella, M.; Cavoto, G.; Piredda, G.; Renga, F.; Voena, C.; Chiarello, G.; Panareo, M.; Pepino, A.; Chiri, C.; Grancagnolo, F.; Tassielli, G.F.; De Gerone, M.; Fujii, Y.; Iwamoto, T.; Kaneko, D.; Mori, Toshinori; Nakaura, S.; Nishimura, M.; Ogawa, S.; Ootani, W.; Sawada, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Yoshida, K.; Graziosi, A.; Ripiccini, E.; Grigoriev, D.N.; Haruyama, T.; Mihara, S.; Nishiguchi, H.; Yamamoto, A.; Ieki, K.; Ignatov, F.; Khazin, B.I.; Popov, A.; Yudin, Yu.V.; Kang, T.I.; Lim, G.M.A.; Molzon, W.; You, Z.; Khomutov, N.; Korenchenko, A.; Kravchuk, N.; Venturini, M.

    2016-01-01

    The MEG experiment makes use of one of the world's most intense low energy muon beams, in order to search for the lepton flavour violating process μ + → e + γ. We determined the residual beam polarization at the thin stopping target, by measuring the asymmetry of the angular distribution of Michel decay positrons as a function of energy. The initial muon beam polarization at the production is predicted to be P μ = -1 by the Standard Model (SM) with massless neutrinos. We estimated our residual muon polarization to be P μ =.0.86 ± 0.02 (stat) -0.06 +0.05 (syst) at the stopping target, which is consistent with the SM predictions when the depolarizing effects occurring during the muon production, propagation and moderation in the target are taken into account. The knowledge of beam polarization is of fundamental importance in order to model the background of our μ + → e + γ search induced by the muon radiative decay: μ + → e + anti ν μ ν e γ. (orig.)

  3. Muon polarization in the MEG experiment: predictions and measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldini, A.M.; Dussoni, S.; Galli, L.; Grassi, M.; Sergiampietri, F.; Signorelli, G. [Pisa Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Bao, Y.; Hildebrandt, M.; Kettle, P.R.; Mtchedlishvili, A.; Papa, A.; Ritt, S. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); Baracchini, E. [University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Rome (Italy); Bemporad, C.; Cei, F.; D' Onofrio, A.; Nicolo, D.; Tenchini, F. [INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Pisa Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Pisa (Italy); Berg, F.; Hodge, Z.; Rutar, G. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich (Switzerland); Biasotti, M.; Gatti, F.; Pizzigoni, G. [INFN Sezione di Genova, Genova (Italy); Genova Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Genova (Italy); Boca, G.; De Bari, A. [INFN Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Pavia Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Pavia (Italy); Cattaneo, P.W.; Rossella, M. [Pavia Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Cavoto, G.; Piredda, G.; Renga, F.; Voena, C. [Univ. ' ' Sapienza' ' , Rome (Italy); INFN Sezione di Roma, Rome (Italy); Chiarello, G.; Panareo, M.; Pepino, A. [INFN Sezione di Lecce, Lecce (Italy); Univ. del Salento, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Lecce (Italy); Chiri, C.; Grancagnolo, F.; Tassielli, G.F. [Univ. del Salento (Italy); INFN Sezione di Lecce, Lecce (Italy); De Gerone, M. [Genova Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Genova, Genova (Italy); Fujii, Y.; Iwamoto, T.; Kaneko, D.; Mori, Toshinori; Nakaura, S.; Nishimura, M.; Ogawa, S.; Ootani, W.; Sawada, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Yoshida, K. [University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); Graziosi, A.; Ripiccini, E. [INFN Sezione di Roma, Rome (Italy); Univ. ' ' Sapienza' ' , Dipartimento di Fisica, Rome (Italy); Grigoriev, D.N. [Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Haruyama, T.; Mihara, S.; Nishiguchi, H.; Yamamoto, A. [KEK, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ieki, K. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); Ignatov, F.; Khazin, B.I.; Popov, A.; Yudin, Yu.V. [Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Kang, T.I.; Lim, G.M.A.; Molzon, W.; You, Z. [University of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Khomutov, N.; Korenchenko, A.; Kravchuk, N. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Venturini, M. [Pisa Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa (Italy); Collaboration: The MEG Collaboration

    2016-04-15

    The MEG experiment makes use of one of the world's most intense low energy muon beams, in order to search for the lepton flavour violating process μ{sup +} → e{sup +}γ. We determined the residual beam polarization at the thin stopping target, by measuring the asymmetry of the angular distribution of Michel decay positrons as a function of energy. The initial muon beam polarization at the production is predicted to be P{sub μ} = -1 by the Standard Model (SM) with massless neutrinos. We estimated our residual muon polarization to be P{sub μ} =.0.86 ± 0.02 (stat){sub -0.06}{sup +0.05} (syst) at the stopping target, which is consistent with the SM predictions when the depolarizing effects occurring during the muon production, propagation and moderation in the target are taken into account. The knowledge of beam polarization is of fundamental importance in order to model the background of our μ{sup +} → e{sup +}γ search induced by the muon radiative decay: μ{sup +} → e{sup +} anti ν{sub μ}ν{sub e}γ. (orig.)

  4. Mars Water Ice and Carbon Dioxide Seasonal Polar Caps: GCM Modeling and Comparison with Mars Express Omega Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Levrard, B.; Montmessin, F.; Schmitt, B.; Doute, S.; Langevin, Y.; Bibring, J. P.

    2005-01-01

    To better understand the behavior of the Mars CO2 ice seasonal polar caps, and in particular interpret the the Mars Express Omega observations of the recession of the northern seasonal cap, we present some simulations of the Martian Climate/CO2 cycle/ water cycle as modeled by the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) global climate model.

  5. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  6. On the relationship of polar mesospheric cloud ice water content, particle radius and mesospheric temperature and its use in multi-dimensional models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. J. Jensen

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of ice layers in the polar summer mesosphere (called polar mesospheric clouds or PMCs is sensitive to background atmospheric conditions and therefore affected by global-scale dynamics. To investigate this coupling it is necessary to simulate the global distribution of PMCs within a 3-dimensional (3-D model that couples large-scale dynamics with cloud microphysics. However, modeling PMC microphysics within 3-D global chemistry climate models (GCCM is a challenge due to the high computational cost associated with particle following (Lagrangian or sectional microphysical calculations. By characterizing the relationship between the PMC effective radius, ice water content (iwc, and local temperature (T from an ensemble of simulations from the sectional microphysical model, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA, we determined that these variables can be described by a robust empirical formula. The characterized relationship allows an estimate of an altitude distribution of PMC effective radius in terms of local temperature and iwc. For our purposes we use this formula to predict an effective radius as part of a bulk parameterization of PMC microphysics in a 3-D GCCM to simulate growth, sublimation and sedimentation of ice particles without keeping track of the time history of each ice particle size or particle size bin. This allows cost effective decadal scale PMC simulations in a 3-D GCCM to be performed. This approach produces realistic PMC simulations including estimates of the optical properties of PMCs. We validate the relationship with PMC data from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE.

  7. Predicting subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C. D.; Woodward, J.

    2013-03-01

    In this paper we use the Shreve hydraulic potential equation to predict subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. For the Antarctic Ice Sheet we are able to predict known subglacial lakes with a >70% success rate, which demonstrates the validity of this method. Despite the success in predicting known subglacial lakes the calculations produce two-orders of magnitude more lakes than are presently identified, covering 4% of the ice-sheet bed. The difference is thought to result from our poor knowledge of the bed (which has resulted in artefacts associated with the interpolation method), intrinsic errors associated with the simplified modelling approach and because thousands of subglacial lakes, particularly smaller ones, remain to be found. Applying the same modelling approach to the Greenland Ice Sheet predicts only 90 lakes under the present-day ice-sheet configuration, covering 0.2% of the bed. The paucity of subglacial lakes in Greenland is thought to be a function of steeper overall ice-surface gradients. As no lakes have currently been located under Greenland, model predictions will make suitable targets for radar surveys of Greenland to identify subglacial lakes. During deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum both ice sheets had more subglacial lakes at their beds, though many of these lakes have persisted to present conditions. These lakes, inherited from past ice-sheet configurations would not form under current surface conditions, suggesting a retreating ice-sheet will have many more subglacial lakes than an advancing ice sheet. This hysteresis effect has implications for ice-stream formation and flow, bed lubrication and meltwater drainage. The lake model also allows modelling of the drainage pathways of the present-day and former Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Significantly, key sectors of the ice sheets, such as the Siple Coast (Antarctica) and NE Greenland Ice Stream system, are shown to have

  8. Parameterisation of sea and lake ice in numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrii Mironov

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A bulk thermodynamic (no rheology sea-ice parameterisation scheme for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented. The scheme is based on a self-similar parametric representation (assumed shape of the evolving temperature profile within the ice and on the integral heat budget of the ice slab. The scheme carries ordinary differential equations (in time for the ice surface temperature and the ice thickness. The proposed sea-ice scheme is implemented into the NWP models GME (global and COSMO (limited-area of the German Weather Service. In the present operational configuration, the horizontal distribution of the sea ice is governed by the data assimilation scheme, no fractional ice cover within the GME/COSMO grid box is considered, and the effect of snow above the ice is accounted for through an empirical temperature dependence of the ice surface albedo with respect to solar radiation. The lake ice is treated similarly to the sea ice, except that freeze-up and break-up of lakes occurs freely, independent of the data assimilation. The sea and lake ice schemes (the latter is a part of the fresh-water lake parameterisation scheme FLake show a satisfactory performance in GME and COSMO. The ice characteristics are not overly sensitive to the details of the treatment of heat transfer through the ice layer. This justifies the use of a simplified but computationally efficient bulk approach to model the ice thermodynamics in NWP, where the ice surface temperature is a major concern whereas details of the temperature distribution within the ice are of secondary importance. In contrast to the details of the heat transfer through the ice, the cloud cover is of decisive importance for the ice temperature as it controls the radiation energy budget at the ice surface. This is particularly true for winter, when the long-wave radiation dominates the surface energy budget. During summer, the surface energy budget is also sensitive to the grid-box mean ice

  9. IOCCG Report Number 16, 2015 Ocean Colour Remote Sensing in Polar Seas . Chapter 2; The Polar Environment: Sun, Clouds, and Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Perovich, Don; Stamnes, Knut; Stuart, Venetia (Editor)

    2015-01-01

    The polar regions are places of extremes. There are months when the regions are enveloped in unending darkness, and months when they are in continuous daylight. During the daylight months the sun is low on the horizon and often obscured by clouds. In the dark winter months temperatures are brutally cold, and high winds and blowing snow are common. Even in summer, temperatures seldom rise above 0degC. The cold winter temperatures cause the ocean to freeze, forming sea ice. This sea ice cover acts as a barrier limiting the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. It also greatly complicates the optical signature of the surface. Taken together, these factors make the polar regions a highly challenging environment for optical remote sensing of the ocean.

  10. Prediction of the heat transfer coefficient for ice slurry flows in a horizontal pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kousksou, T.; Jamil, A.; Zeraouli, Y. [Laboratoire de Thermique Energetique et Procedes, Avenue de l' Universite, BP 1155, 64013 Pau Cedex (France); El Rhafiki, T. [Laboratoire de Thermique Energetique et Procedes, Avenue de l' Universite, BP 1155, 64013 Pau Cedex (France); Laboratoire d' Energetique, Mecanique des Fluides et Sciences des Materiaux, Universite AbdelMalek Essaidi, 90000 Tetouan (Morocco)

    2010-06-15

    In this study, heat transfer for ice slurry flows was investigated. For the experiments, ice slurry was made from 9% ethanol-water solution flow in a 20 mm internal diameter, 1000 mm long horizontal copper tube. The ice slurry was heated by a cylindrical electrical resistance. Experiments of the melting process were conducted with changing the ice slurry mass flux rate and the heat flux. The enthalpy-porosity formulation was used to predict the ice slurry temperature and the local values of heat transfer coefficient in the exchanger. Measurements and data acquisition of ice slurry temperature and mass flow rate at the inlet and outlet are performed. It was found that the heat transfer rates increase with the mass flow rate, the ice fraction and the heat flux density. However, the effect of ice fraction appears not to be significant at high mass flow rates. In addition, the correlation proposed by Christensen and Kauffeld gives good agreement with numerical results. (author)

  11. Prediction of the heat transfer coefficient for ice slurry flows in a horizontal pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kousksou, T.; Jamil, A.; El Rhafiki, T.; Zeraouli, Y.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, heat transfer for ice slurry flows was investigated. For the experiments, ice slurry was made from 9% ethanol-water solution flow in a 20 mm internal diameter, 1000 mm long horizontal copper tube. The ice slurry was heated by a cylindrical electrical resistance. Experiments of the melting process were conducted with changing the ice slurry mass flux rate and the heat flux. The enthalpy-porosity formulation was used to predict the ice slurry temperature and the local values of heat transfer coefficient in the exchanger. Measurements and data acquisition of ice slurry temperature and mass flow rate at the inlet and outlet are performed. It was found that the heat transfer rates increase with the mass flow rate, the ice fraction and the heat flux density. However, the effect of ice fraction appears not to be significant at high mass flow rates. In addition, the correlation proposed by Christensen and Kauffeld gives good agreement with numerical results.

  12. A new source of Southern Ocean and Antarctic aerosol from tropospheric polar cell chemistry of sea ice emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, R. S.; Klekociuk, A. R.; Schofield, R.; Robinson, A. D.; Harris, N. R. P.; Keywood, M.; Ward, J.; Galbally, I.; Molloy, S.; Thomas, A.; Wilson, S. R.

    2014-12-01

    The Antarctic region is a pristine environment with minimal anthropogenic influence. Aerosol measurements in this environment allow the study of natural aerosols and polar atmospheric dynamics. Measurements in this region have been limited primarily to continental and coastal locations where permanent stations exist, with a handful of measurements in the sea ice region. The MAPS campaign (Measurements of Aerosols and Precursors during SIPEXII) occurred as part of SIPEX II (Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems eXperiment II) voyage in Spring, 2012, and produced the first Antarctic pack-ice focused aerosol dataset aimed at characterizing new particle formation processes off the coast of East Antarctica (~65°S, 120°E). Numerous atmospheric parameters and species were measured, including the number of aerosol particles in the 3-10 nm size range, the range associated with nucleating particle formation. A latitudinal transect through the sea ice identified the Polar Front from sudden changes in nucleating particle concentrations, averaging 51cm-3 north of the front in the Ferrel cell, and 766 cm-3 south of the front, in the Polar cell region. The Polar Front location was also confirmed by meteorological and back-trajectory data. Background aerosol populations in the Polar cell fluctuated significantly but displayed no growth indicators, suggesting transport. Back-trajectories revealed that air parcels often descended from the free-troposphere within the previous 24-48 hrs. It is proposed that particle formation occurs in the free troposphere from precursors uplifted at the polar front region which, being a sea-ice/ocean region, is a significant precursor source. After tropospheric formation, populations descending at the poles are transported northward and reach the sea ice surface, missing continental stations. Current measurements of Antarctic aerosol suggest very low loading which may be explained by these circulation patterns and may underestimate total regional loading

  13. Correlation of Ice-Rafted Detritus in South Atlantic Sediments with Climate Proxies in Polar Ice over the Last Glacial Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Kanfoush

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous study identified 6–7 millennial-scale episodes of South Atlantic ice-rafted sediment deposition (SA events during the glaciation. Questions remain, however, regarding their origin, significance for sea-ice and/or Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, and relationship to climate. Here I correlate sediment core (TTN057–21 SA events to Greenland and Antarctic ice using two independent methods, stable isotopes and geomagnetic paleointensity, placing SA events in the context of polar climate change in both hemispheres. Marine isotopic stage (MIS 3 SA events generally coincided with Greenland interstadials and with cooling following Antarctic warm events (A1-A4. This anti-phase behavior is best illustrated when SA0 coincided with both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Bolling-Allerod warming in Greenland. Moreover, SA events coincide with sea-level rises during the deglaciation (mwp1A and MIS 3 (30.4, 38.3, 43.7, 51.5 ka, implying unpinning of grounded Weddell Sea region ice masses discharged debris-laden bergs that had a chilling effect on South Atlantic surface temperatures.

  14. Web-based Tools for Educators: Outreach Activities of the Polar Radar for Ice Sheet Measurements (PRISM) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braaten, D. A.; Holvoet, J. F.; Gogineni, S.

    2003-12-01

    The Radar Systems and Remote Sensing Laboratory at the University of Kansas (KU) has implemented extensive outreach activities focusing on Polar Regions as part of the Polar Radar for Ice Sheet Measurements (PRISM) project. The PRISM project is developing advanced intelligent remote sensing technology that involves radar systems, an autonomous rover, and communications systems to measure detailed ice sheet characteristics, and to determine bed conditions (frozen or wet) below active ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica. These measurements will provide a better understanding of the response of polar ice sheets to global climate change and the resulting impact the ice sheets will have on sea level rise. Many of the research and technological development aspects of the PRISM project, such as robotics, radar systems, climate change and exploration of harsh environments, can kindle an excitement and interest in students about science and technology. These topics form the core of our K-12 education and training outreach initiatives, which are designed to capture the imagination of young students, and prompt them to consider an educational path that will lead them to scientific or engineering careers. The K-12 PRISM outreach initiatives are being developed and implemented in a collaboration with the Advanced Learning Technology Program (ALTec) of the High Plains Regional Technology in Education Consortium (HPR*TEC). ALTec is associated with the KU School of Education, and is a well-established educational research center that develops and hosts web tools to enable teachers nationwide to network, collaborate, and share resources with other teachers. An example of an innovative and successful web interface developed by ALTec is called TrackStar. Teachers can use TrackStar over the Web to develop interactive, resource-based lessons (called tracks) on-line for their students. Once developed, tracks are added to the TrackStar database and can be accessed and modified

  15. What to eat now? Shifts in polar bear diet during the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormezano, Linda J; Rockwell, Robert F

    2013-01-01

    Under current climate trends, spring ice breakup in Hudson Bay is advancing rapidly, leaving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) less time to hunt seals during the spring when they accumulate the majority of their annual fat reserves. For this reason, foods that polar bears consume during the ice-free season may become increasingly important in alleviating nutritional stress from lost seal hunting opportunities. Defining how the terrestrial diet might have changed since the onset of rapid climate change is an important step in understanding how polar bears may be reacting to climate change. We characterized the current terrestrial diet of polar bears in western Hudson Bay by evaluating the contents of passively sampled scat and comparing it to a similar study conducted 40 years ago. While the two terrestrial diets broadly overlap, polar bears currently appear to be exploiting increasingly abundant resources such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and newly available resources such as eggs. This opportunistic shift is similar to the diet mixing strategy common among other Arctic predators and bear species. We discuss whether the observed diet shift is solely a response to a nutritional stress or is an expression of plastic foraging behavior. PMID:24223286

  16. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-Y. Yang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years, but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

  17. Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall Jamieson, Kathleen; Hardy, Bruce W.

    2014-01-01

    This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience’s biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science’s way of knowing and respectful of the audience’s intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging–involving–visualizing–analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source. PMID:25225380

  18. Polarization of 'water-skies' above arctic open waters: how polynyas in the ice-cover can be visually detected from a distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedüs, Ramón; Akesson, Susanne; Horváth, Gábor

    2007-01-01

    The foggy sky above a white ice-cover and a dark water surface (permanent polynya or temporary lead) is white and dark gray, phenomena called the 'ice-sky' and the 'water-sky,' respectively. Captains of icebreaker ships used to search for not-directly-visible open waters remotely on the basis of the water sky. Animals depending on open waters in the Arctic region may also detect not-directly-visible waters from a distance by means of the water sky. Since the polarization of ice-skies and water-skies has not, to our knowledge, been studied before, we measured the polarization patterns of water-skies above polynyas in the arctic ice-cover during the Beringia 2005 Swedish polar research expedition to the North Pole region. We show that there are statistically significant differences in the angle of polarization between the water-sky and the ice-sky. This polarization phenomenon could help biological and man-made sensors to detect open waters not directly visible from a distance. However, the threshold of polarization-based detection would be rather low, because the degree of linear polarization of light radiated by water-skies and ice-skies is not higher than 10%.

  19. Layers of quasi-horizontally oriented ice crystals in cirrus clouds observed by a two-wavelength polarization lidar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovoi, Anatoli; Balin, Yurii; Kokhanenko, Grigorii; Penner, Iogannes; Konoshonkin, Alexander; Kustova, Natalia

    2014-10-06

    Layers of quasi-horizontally oriented ice crystals in cirrus clouds are observed by a two-wavelength polarization lidar. These layers of thickness of several hundred meters are identified by three attributes: the backscatter reveals a sharp ridge while the depolarization ratio and color ratio become deep minima. These attributes have been justified by theoretical calculations of these quantities within the framework of the physical-optics approximation.

  20. Frequency and Angular Resolution for Measuring, Presenting and Predicting Loudspeaker Polar Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staffeldt, Henrik; Seidel, Felicity

    1996-01-01

    are needed to represent and predict the sound fields from single and multiple sound sources more accurately.The relationship between measurement resolution and the accuracy of presented or predicted polar and frequency responses from single or arrayed loudspeakers is described. Plane and spherical polar data...... and angular resolution for measuring, presenting and predicting loudspeaker polar data.......The spherical polar loudspeaker data available today are usually measured with such a coarse resolution that only rough estimates of the performance of sound systems can be predicted by applying these data. Complex, spherical polar data with higher angular and frequency resolutions than used today...

  1. 10Be and δ2H in polar ice cores as a probe of the solar variability's influence on climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raisbeck, G.M.; Yiou, F.; Jouzel, J.; Domaine Univ., 38 - St-Martin-d'Heres; Petit, J.R.

    1990-01-01

    By using the technique of accelerator mass spectrometry, it is now possible to measure detailed profiles of cosmogenic (cosmic ray produced) 10 Be in polar ice cores. Recent work has demonstrated that these profiles contain information on solar activity, via its influence on the intensity of galactic cosmic rays arriving in the Earth's atmosphere. It has been known for some time that, as a result of temperature-dependent fractionation effects, the stable isotope profiles δ 2 O and δ 2 H in polar ice cores contain palaeoclimate information. Thus by comparing the 10 Be and stable isotope profiles in the same ice core, one can test the influence of solar variability on climate, and this independent of possible uncertainties in the absolute chronology of the records. We present here the results of such a comparison for two Antarctic ice cores; one from the South Pole, covering the past ca. 1000 years, and one from Dome C, covering the past ca. 3000 years. (author)

  2. Ice particle habit and surface roughness derived from PARASOL polarization measurements

    OpenAIRE

    B. H. Cole; P. Yang; B. A. Baum; J. Riedi; L. C.-Labonnote

    2014-01-01

    Ice clouds are an important element in the radiative balance of the earth's climate system, but their microphysical and optical properties still are not well constrained, especially ice particle habit and the degree of particle surface roughness. In situ observations have revealed common ice particle habits and evidence for surface roughness, but these observations are limited. An alternative is to infer the ice particle shape and surface roughness from satellite observat...

  3. Spectral dependence of backscattering coefficient of mixed phase clouds over West Africa measured with two-wavelength Raman polarization lidar: Features attributed to ice-crystals corner reflection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veselovskii, I.; Goloub, P.; Podvin, T.; Tanre, D.; Ansmann, A.; Korenskiy, M.; Borovoi, A.; Hu, Q.; Whiteman, D. N.

    2017-11-01

    The existing models predict that corner reflection (CR) of laser radiation by simple ice crystals of perfect shape, such as hexagonal columns or plates, can provide a significant contribution to the ice cloud backscattering. However in real clouds the CR effect may be suppressed due to crystal deformation and surface roughness. In contrast to the extinction coefficient, which is spectrally independent, consideration of diffraction associated with CR results in a spectral dependence of the backscattering coefficient. Thus measuring the spectral dependence of the cloud backscattering coefficient, the contribution of CR can be identified. The paper presents the results of profiling of backscattering coefficient (β) and particle depolarization ratio (δ) of ice and mixed-phase clouds over West Africa by means of a two-wavelength polarization Mie-Raman lidar operated at 355 nm and 532 nm during the SHADOW field campaign. The lidar observations were performed at a slant angle of 43 degree off zenith, thus CR from both randomly oriented crystals and oriented plates could be analyzed. For the most of the observations the cloud backscatter color ratio β355/β532 was close to 1.0, and no spectral features that might indicate the presence of CR of randomly oriented crystals were revealed. Still, in two measurement sessions we observed an increase of backscatter color ratio to a value of nearly 1.3 simultaneously with a decrease of the spectral depolarization ratio δ355/δ532 ratio from 1.0 to 0.8 inside the layers containing precipitating ice crystals. We attribute these changes in optical properties to corner reflections by horizontally oriented ice plates.

  4. Evidence for Water Ice on the Moon: Results for Anomalous Polar Craters from the LRO Mini-RF Imaging Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spudis, P. D.; Bussey, D. B. J.; Baloga, S. M.; Cahill, J. T. S.; Glaze, L. S.; Patterson, G. W.; Raney, R. K.; Thompson, T. W.; Thomson, B. J.; Ustinov, E. A.

    2013-01-01

    The Mini-RF radar instrument on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft mapped both lunar poles in two different RF wavelengths (complete mapping at 12.6 cm S-band and partial mapping at 4.2 cm X-band) in two look directions, removing much of the ambiguity of previous Earth- and spacecraft-based radar mapping of the Moon's polar regions. The poles are typical highland terrain, showing expected values of radar cross section (albedo) and circular polarization ratio (CPR). Most fresh craters display high values of CPR in and outside the crater rim; the pattern of these CPR distributions is consistent with high levels of wavelength-scale surface roughness associated with the presence of block fields, impact melt flows, and fallback breccia. A different class of polar crater exhibits high CPR only in their interiors, interiors that are both permanently dark and very cold (less than 100 K). Application of scattering models developed previously suggests that these anomalously high-CPR deposits exhibit behavior consistent with the presence of water ice. If this interpretation is correct, then both poles may contain several hundred million tons of water in the form of relatively "clean" ice, all within the upper couple of meters of the lunar surface. The existence of significant water ice deposits enables both long-term human habitation of the Moon and the creation of a permanent cislunar space transportation system based upon the harvest and use of lunar propellant.

  5. Statistical extraction of volcanic sulphate from non-Polar ice cores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moore, J.C.; Beaudon, E.; Kang, S.; Divine, D.; Isaksson, E.; Pohjola, V.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2012-01-01

    Ice cores from outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are difficult to date because of seasonal melting and multiple sources (terrestrial, marine, biogenic and anthropogenic) of sulfates deposited onto the ice. Here we present a method of volcanic sulfate extraction that relies on fitting

  6. Climatic impact of glacial cycle polar motion: Coupled oscillations of ice sheet mass and rotation pole position

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bills, Bruce G.; James, Thomas S.; Mengel, John G.

    1999-01-01

    Precessional motion of Earth's rotation axis relative to its orbit is a well-known source of long-period climatic variation. It is less well appreciated that growth and decay of polar ice sheets perturb the symmetry of the global mass distribution enough that the geographic location of the rotation axis will change by at least 15 km and possibly as much as 100 km during a single glacial cycle. This motion of the pole will change the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of temperatures. We present calculations, based on a diurnal average energy balance, which compare the summer and winter temperature anomalies due to a 1° decrease in obliquity with those due to a 1° motion of the rotation pole toward Hudson Bay. Both effects result in peak temperature perturbations of about 1° Celsius. The obliquity change primarily influences the amplitude of the seasonal cycle, while the polar motion primarily changes the annual mean temperatures. The polar motion induced temperature anomaly is such that it will act as a powerful negative feedback on ice sheet growth. We also explore the evolution of the coupled system composed of ice sheet mass and pole position. Oscillatory solutions result from the conflicting constraints of rotational and thermal stability. A positive mass anomaly on an otherwise featureless Earth is in rotational equilibrium only at the poles or the equator. The two polar equilibria are rotationally unstable, and the equatorial equilibrium, though rotationally stable, is thermally unstable. We find that with a plausible choice for the strength of coupling between the thermal and rotational systems, relatively modest external forcing can produce significant response at periods of 104–106 years, but it strongly attenuates polar motion at longer periods. We suggest that these coupled oscillations may contribute to the observed dominance of 100 kyr glacial cycles since the mid-Pleistocene and will tend to stabilize geographic patterns that are suitable to

  7. Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

    2016-01-01

    Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nanometers. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (approximately 300 microns) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (220 microns) and East Antarctica is the smallest (190 microns). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations.

  8. Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    effrey M. Janot, Nicholas M. Beltz, Lance D. Dalleck

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15 and women (n = 11 hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ, 40-yd dash (36.58m, 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop, and 1.5 mile (2.4km run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m, VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1 slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run, 2 fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time, 3 average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time - (0.63 x VJ + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time, and 4 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ - (0.01 x % drop. It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players.

  9. Innovative optical spectrometers for ice core sciences and atmospheric monitoring at polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilli, Roberto; Alemany, Olivier; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Desbois, Thibault; Faïn, Xavier; Kassi, Samir; Kerstel, Erik; Legrand, Michel; Marrocco, Nicola; Méjean, Guillaume; Preunkert, Suzanne; Romanini, Daniele; Triest, Jack; Ventrillard, Irene

    2015-04-01

    In this talk recent developments accomplished from a collaboration between the Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Physique (LIPhy) and the Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE) both in Grenoble (France), are discussed, covering atmospheric chemistry of high reactive species in polar regions and employing optical spectrometers for both in situ and laboratory measurements of glacial archives. In the framework of an ANR project, a transportable spectrometer based on the injection of a broadband frequency comb laser into a high-finesse optical cavity for the detection of IO, BrO, NO2 and H2CO has been realized.[1] The robust spectrometer provides shot-noise limited measurements for as long as 10 minutes, reaching detection limits of 0.04, 2, 10 and 200 ppt (2σ) for the four species, respectively. During the austral summer of 2011/12 the instrument has been used for monitoring, for the first time, NO2, IO and BrO at Dumont d'Urville Station at East of Antarctica. The measurements highlighted a different chemistry between East and West coast, with the halogen chemistry being promoted to the West and the OH and NOx chemistry on the East.[2] In the framework of a SUBGLACIOR project, an innovative drilling probe has been realized. The instrument is capable of retrieving in situ real-time vertical profiles of CH4 and δD of H2O trapped inside the ice sheet down to more than 3 km of depth within a single Antarctic season. The drilling probe containing an embedded OFCEAS (optical-feedback cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy) spectrometer will be extremely useful for (i) identify potential sites for investigating the oldest ice (aiming 1.5 Myrs BP records for resolving a major climate reorganization called the Mid-Pleistocene transition occurred around 1 Myrs ago) and (ii) providing direct access to past temperatures and climate cycles thanks to the vertical distribution of two key climatic signatures.[3] The spectrometer provides detection

  10. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durner, G.M.; Douglas, D.C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

    2009-01-01

    Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

  11. Ice Water Classification Using Statistical Distribution Based Conditional Random Fields in RADARSAT-2 Dual Polarization Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Hao, W.; Zhu, T.; Yuan, L.; Xiao, F.

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, Statistical Distribution based Conditional Random Fields (STA-CRF) algorithm is exploited for improving marginal ice-water classification. Pixel level ice concentration is presented as the comparison of methods based on CRF. Furthermore, in order to explore the effective statistical distribution model to be integrated into STA-CRF, five statistical distribution models are investigated. The STA-CRF methods are tested on 2 scenes around Prydz Bay and Adélie Depression, where contain a variety of ice types during melt season. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can resolve sea ice edge well in Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) and show a robust distinction of ice and water.

  12. ICE WATER CLASSIFICATION USING STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION BASED CONDITIONAL RANDOM FIELDS IN RADARSAT-2 DUAL POLARIZATION IMAGERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, Statistical Distribution based Conditional Random Fields (STA-CRF algorithm is exploited for improving marginal ice-water classification. Pixel level ice concentration is presented as the comparison of methods based on CRF. Furthermore, in order to explore the effective statistical distribution model to be integrated into STA-CRF, five statistical distribution models are investigated. The STA-CRF methods are tested on 2 scenes around Prydz Bay and Adélie Depression, where contain a variety of ice types during melt season. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can resolve sea ice edge well in Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ and show a robust distinction of ice and water.

  13. Ancient ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    Simon Belt, Guillaume Massé and colleagues rammed their way through sheets of ice, spotting some polar bears on the way, in their attempt to reconstruct Arctic sea-ice records covering thousands of years.

  14. Strong linkage of polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ) to sea ice algae-produced carbon: Evidence from stomach content, fatty acid and stable isotope analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kohlbach, Doreen; Schaafsma, Fokje L.; Graeve, Martin; Lebreton, Benoit; Lange, Benjamin Allen; David, Carmen; Vortkamp, Martina; Flores, Hauke

    2017-01-01

    The polar cod (Boreogadus saida) is considered an ecological key species, because it reaches high stock biomasses and constitutes an important carbon source for seabirds and marine mammals in high-Arctic ecosystems. Young polar cod (1–2 years) are often associated with the underside of sea ice. To

  15. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  16. Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauker, F.; Kaminski, T.; Ricker, R.; Toudal-Pedersen, L.; Dybkjaer, G.; Melsheimer, C.; Eastwood, S.; Sumata, H.; Karcher, M.; Gerdes, R.

    2015-10-01

    The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor.

  17. The RISCO RapidIce Viewer: An application for monitoring the polar ice sheets with multi-resolution, multi-temporal, multi-sensor satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herried, B.; Porter, C. C.; Morin, P. J.; Howat, I. M.

    2013-12-01

    The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO) is a NASA-funded, inter-organizational collaboration created to provide a systematic framework for gathering, processing, analyzing, and distributing consistent satellite imagery of polar ice sheet change for Antarctica and Greenland. RISCO gathers observations over areas of rapid change and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media, and the general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO distributes processed georeferenced raster image data products in JPEG and GeoTIFF formats, making them immediately viewable in a browser-based application. Currently, the archive includes 16 sensors including: MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, MODIS Terra Bands 3-6-7, Landsat MSS, Landsat TM, Landsat ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI, EO-1, SPOT, ASTER VNIR, Operation IceBridge ATM and LVIS, and commercial satellites such as WorldView-1, WorldView-2, QuickBird-2, GeoEye-1 and IKONOS. The RISCO RapidIce Viewer is a lightweight JavaScript application that provides an interface to viewing and downloading the satellite imagery from predefined areas-of-interest (or 'subsets'), which are normally between 10,000 and 20,000 sq km. Users select a subset (from a map or drop-down) and the archive of individual granules is loaded in a thumbnail grid, sorted chronologically (newest first). For each thumbnail, users can choose to view a larger preview JPG, download a GeoTIFF, or be redirected back to the original data center to see the original imagery or view metadata. There are several options for filtering displayed including by sensor, by date range, by month, or by cloud cover. Last, users can select multiple images to play back as an animation. The RapidIce Viewer is an easy-to-use, software independent application for researchers to quickly monitor daily changes in ice sheets or download historical

  18. Polar zoobenthos blue carbon storage increases with sea ice losses, because across-shelf growth gains from longer algal blooms outweigh ice scour mortality in the shallows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, David K A

    2017-12-01

    One of the major climate-forced global changes has been white to blue to green; losses of sea ice extent in time and space around Arctic and West Antarctic seas has increased open water and the duration (though not magnitude) of phytoplankton blooms. Blueing of the poles has increases potential for heat absorption for positive feedback but conversely the longer phytoplankton blooms have increased carbon export to storage and sequestration by shelf benthos. However, ice shelf collapses and glacier retreat can calve more icebergs, and the increased open water allows icebergs more opportunities to scour the seabed, reducing zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage. Here the size and variability in benthic blue carbon in mega and macrobenthos was assessed in time and space at Ryder and Marguerite bays of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In particular the influence of the duration of primary productivity and ice scour are investigated from the shallows to typical shelf depths of 500 m. Ice scour frequency dominated influence on benthic blue carbon at 5 m, to comparable with phytoplankton duration by 25 m depth. At 500 m only phytoplankton duration was significant and influential. WAP zoobenthos was calculated to generate ~10 7 , 4.5 × 10 6 and 1.6 × 10 6 tonnes per year (between 2002 and 2015) in terms of production, immobilization and sequestration of carbon respectively. Thus about 1% of annual primary productivity has sequestration potential at the end of the trophic cascade. Polar zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage responses to sea ice losses, the largest negative feedback on climate change, has been underestimated despite some offsetting of gain by increased ice scouring with more open water. Equivalent survey of Arctic and sub-Antarctic shelves, for which new projects have started, should reveal the true extent of this feedback and how much its variability contributes to uncertainty in climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Assessment of diffusive isotopic fractionation in polar firn, and application to ice core trace gas records

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buizert, C.; Sowers, T.; Blunier, T.

    2013-01-01

    During rapid variations of the atmospheric mixing ratio of a trace gas, diffusive transport in the porous firn layer atop ice sheets and glaciers alters the isotopic composition of that gas relative to the overlying atmosphere. Records of past atmospheric trace gas isotopic composition from ice...

  20. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

    1992-12-01

    Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

  1. Assessment of RISAT-1 and Radarsat-2 for Sea Ice Observations from a Hybrid-Polarity Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martine M. Espeseth

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Utilizing several Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR missions will provide a data set with higher temporal resolution. It is of great importance to understand the difference between various available sensors and polarization modes and to consider how to homogenize the data sets for a following combined analysis. In this study, a uniform and consistent analysis across different SAR missions is carried out. Three pairs of overlapping hybrid- and full-polarimetric C-band SAR scenes from the Radar Imaging Satellite-1 (RISAT-1 and Radarsat-2 satellites are used. The overlapping Radarsat-2 and RISAT-1 scenes are taken close in time, with a relatively similar incidence angle covering sea ice in the Fram Strait and Northeast Greenland in September 2015. The main objective of this study is to identify the similarities and dissimilarities between a simulated and a real hybrid-polarity (HP SAR system. The similarities and dissimilarities between the two sensors are evaluated using 13 HP features. The results indicate a similar separability between the sea ice types identified within the real HP system in RISAT-1 and the simulated HP system from Radarsat-2. The HP features that are sensitive to surface scattering and depolarization due to volume scattering showed great potential for separating various sea ice types. A subset of features (the second parameter in the Stokes vector, the ratio between the HP intensity coefficients, and the α s angle were affected by the non-circularity property of the transmitted wave in the simulated HP system across all the scene pairs. Overall, the best features, showing high separability between various sea ice types and which are invariant to the non-circularity property of the transmitted wave, are the intensity coefficients from the right-hand circular transmit and the linear horizontal receive channel and the right-hand circular on both the transmit and the receive channel, and the first parameter in the Stokes vector.

  2. Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, Eric (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative

  3. Comparison of fabric analysis of snow samples by Computer-Integrated Polarization Microscopy and Automatic Ice Texture Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisinger, Sabine; Montagnat, Maurine; Heilbronner, Renée; Schneebeli, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fabric anisotropy is crucial to understand the mechanical behavior of snow and firn, but is also important for understanding metamorphism. Computer-Integrated Polarization Microscopy (CIP) method used for the fabric analysis was developed by Heilbronner and Pauli in the early 1990ies and uses a slightly modified traditional polarization microscope for the fabric analysis. First developed for quartz, it can be applied to other uniaxial minerals. Up to now this method was mainly used in structural geology. However, it is also well suited for the fabric analysis of snow, firn and ice. The method is based on the analysis of first- order interference colors images by a slightly modified optical polarization microscope, a grayscale camera and a computer. The optical polarization microscope is featured with high quality objectives, a rotating table and two polarizers that can be introduced above and below the thin section, as well as a full wave plate. Additionally, two quarter-wave plates for circular polarization are needed. Otherwise it is also possible to create circular polarization from a set of crossed polarized images through image processing. A narrow band interference filter transmitting a wavelength between 660 and 700 nm is also required. Finally a monochrome digital camera is used to capture the input images. The idea is to record the change of interference colors while the thin section is being rotated once through 180°. The azimuth and inclination of the c-axis are defined by the color change. Recording the color change through a red filter produces a signal with a well-defined amplitude and phase angle. An advantage of this method lies in the simple conversion of an ordinary optical microscope to a fabric analyzer. The Automatic Ice Texture Analyzer (AITA) as the first fully functional instrument to measure c-axis orientation was developed by Wilson and other (2003). Most recent fabric analysis of snow and firn samples was carried

  4. Subglacial lake and meltwater flow predictions of the last North American and European Ice Sheets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C. D.; Tarasov, L.

    2012-04-01

    There is increasing recognition that subglacial lakes act as key components within the ice sheet system, capable of influencing ice-sheet topography, ice volume and ice flow. The subglacial water systems themselves are recognised as being both active and dynamic, with large discharges of meltwater capable of flowing down hydrological pathways both between lakes and to the ice-sheet margins. At present, much glaciological research is concerned with the role of modern subglacial lake systems in Antarctica. Another approach to the exploration of subglacial lakes involves identification of the geological record of subglacial lakes that once existed beneath ice sheets of the last glaciation. Investigation of such palaeo-subglacial lakes offers significant advantages because we have comprehensive information about the bed properties, they are much more accessible and we can examine and sample the sediments with ease. If we can find palaeo-subglacial lakes then we have the potential to advance understanding with regard to the topographic context and hydrological pathways that the phenomena form a part of; essentially we gain spatial and sedimentological information in relation to investigations of contemporary subglacial lakes and lose out on the short-time dynamics. In this work we present predictions of palaeo-subglacial lakes and meltwater drainage pathways under the former European and North American ice sheets during the last glaciation. We utilise data on the current topography and seafloor bathymetry, and elevation models of the ice and ground surface topography (interpolated to a 5 km grid) to calculate the hydraulic potential surface at the ice-sheet bed. Meltwater routing algorithms and the flooding of local hydraulic minima allow us to predict subglacial channels and lakes respectively. Given that specific ice-surface and bed topographies are only known from modelled outputs, and thus contain significant uncertainty, we utilise many such outputs to examine

  5. Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capron, E.; Landais, A.; Chappellaz, J.

    2010-01-01

    Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterize...... that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.......Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterized...... by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka), a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display...

  6. Polar Pathfinder Daily 25 km EASE-Grid Sea Ice Motion Vectors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Daily ice motion vectors are computed from a wide variety of sensors ranging from passive microwave radiometers, such as the Scanning Multichannel Microwave...

  7. Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides a near-real-time (NRT) map of sea ice concentrations for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The near-real-time passive microwave...

  8. An Ultra-Wideband, Microwave Radar for Measuring Snow Thickness on Sea Ice and Mapping Near-Surface Internal Layers in Polar Firn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzer, Ben; Gomez-Garcia, Daniel; Leuschen, Carl; Paden, John; Rodriguez-Morales, Fernando; Patel, Azsa; Markus, Thorsten; Holt, Benjamin; Gogineni, Prasad

    2013-01-01

    Sea ice is generally covered with snow, which can vary in thickness from a few centimeters to >1 m. Snow cover acts as a thermal insulator modulating the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it impacts sea-ice growth rates and overall thickness, a key indicator of climate change in polar regions. Snow depth is required to estimate sea-ice thickness using freeboard measurements made with satellite altimeters. The snow cover also acts as a mechanical load that depresses ice freeboard (snow and ice above sea level). Freeboard depression can result in flooding of the snow/ice interface and the formation of a thick slush layer, particularly in the Antarctic sea-ice cover. The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an ultra-wideband, microwave radar capable of operation on long-endurance aircraft to characterize the thickness of snow over sea ice. The low-power, 100mW signal is swept from 2 to 8GHz allowing the air/snow and snow/ ice interfaces to be mapped with 5 c range resolution in snow; this is an improvement over the original system that worked from 2 to 6.5 GHz. From 2009 to 2012, CReSIS successfully operated the radar on the NASA P-3B and DC-8 aircraft to collect data on snow-covered sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic for NASA Operation IceBridge. The radar was found capable of snow depth retrievals ranging from 10cm to >1 m. We also demonstrated that this radar can be used to map near-surface internal layers in polar firn with fine range resolution. Here we describe the instrument design, characteristics and performance of the radar.

  9. US Navy Operational Global Ocean and Arctic Ice Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    the black ribbon of color in the Southern Hemisphere represents the northern edge of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The ice environment in the...the Arctic forecast system discussed below. The ocean model uses atmospheric forcing from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center...University of Rhode Island and Ziv Sirkes, University of Southern Mississippi, pers. comm., January 22, 1997). NOGAPS atmospheric forcing was used in the

  10. Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

  11. Large ice particles associated with small ice water content observed by AIM CIPS imagery of polar mesospheric clouds: Evidence for microphysical coupling with small-scale dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusch, D.; Thomas, G.; Merkel, A.; Olivero, J.; Chandran, A.; Lumpe, J.; Carstans, J.; Randall, C.; Bailey, S.; Russell, J.

    2017-09-01

    Observations by the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument on the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite have demonstrated the existence of Polar Mesospheric Cloud (PMC) regions populated by particles whose mean sizes range between 60 and 100 nm (radii of equivalent volume spheres). It is known from numerous satellite experiments that typical mean PMC particle sizes are of the order of 40-50 nm. Determination of particle size by CIPS is accomplished by measuring the scattering of solar radiation at various scattering angles at a spatial resolution of 25 km2. In this size range we find a robust anti-correlation between mean particle size and albedo. These very-large particle-low-ice (VLP-LI) clouds occur over spatially coherent areas. The surprising result is that VLP-LI are frequently present either in the troughs of gravity wave-like features or at the edges of PMC voids. We postulate that an association with gravity waves exists in the low-temperature summertime mesopause region, and illustrate the mechanism by a gravity wave simulation through use of the 2D Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). The model results are consistent with a VLP-LI population in the cold troughs of monochromatic gravity waves. In addition, we find such events in Whole Earth Community Climate Model/CARMA simulations, suggesting the possible importance of sporadic downward winds in heating the upper cloud regions. This newly-discovered association enhances our understanding of the interaction of ice microphysics with dynamical processes in the upper mesosphere.

  12. Constraining the thickness of polar ice deposits on Mercury using the Mercury Laser Altimeter and small craters in permanently shadowed regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Ariel N.; Head, James W.; Chabot, Nancy L.; Neumann, Gregory A.

    2018-05-01

    . For Mercury's polar deposits, we argue that Case I of the small craters predating the emplacement of the ice deposits is more likely, given other geologic evidence that suggests that these ice deposits are relatively young. Using the ice thickness estimates from Case I to calculate the total amount of water ice currently contained in Mercury's polar deposits results in a value of ∼1014-1015 kg. This is equivalent to ∼100-1000 km3 ice in volume. This volume of water ice is consistent with delivery via micrometeorite bombardment, Jupiter-family comets, or potentially a single impactor.

  13. Antioxidant responses in the polar marine sea-ice amphipod Gammarus wilkitzkii to natural and experimentally increased UV levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krapp, Rupert H., E-mail: rkrapp@ipoe.uni-kiel.de [University of Kiel, Institute for Polar Ecology, Wischhofstr. 1-3, Building 12, 24148 Kiel (Germany); University Center in Svalbard, Postbox 156, 9171 Longyearbyen (Norway); Bassinet, Thievery [International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS), Mekjarvik 12, N-4070 Randaberg (Norway); Berge, Jorgen [University Center in Svalbard, Postbox 156, 9171 Longyearbyen (Norway); Pampanin, Daniela M. [International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS), Mekjarvik 12, N-4070 Randaberg (Norway); Camus, Lionel [Akvaplan-niva a/s, Polar Environmental Centre, N-9296 Tromso (Norway)

    2009-08-13

    Polar marine surface waters are characterized by high levels of dissolved oxygen, seasonally intense UV irradiance and high levels of dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice habitat is regarded as a strongly pro-oxidant environment, even though its significant ice cover protects the ice-associated (=sympagic) fauna from direct irradiation to a large extent. In order to investigate the level of resistance to oxyradical stress, we sampled the sympagic amphipod species Gammarus wilkitzkii during both winter and summer conditions, as well as exposed specimens to simulated levels of near-natural and elevated levels of UV irradiation. Results showed that this amphipod species possessed a much stronger antioxidant capacity during summer than during winter. Also, the experimental UV exposure showed a depletion in antioxidant defences, indicating a negative effect of UV exposure on the total oxyradical scavenging capacity. Another sympagic organism, Onisimus nanseni, was sampled during summer conditions. When compared to G. wilkitzkii, the species showed even higher antioxidant scavenging capacity.

  14. Antioxidant responses in the polar marine sea-ice amphipod Gammarus wilkitzkii to natural and experimentally increased UV levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krapp, Rupert H.; Bassinet, Thievery; Berge, Jorgen; Pampanin, Daniela M.; Camus, Lionel

    2009-01-01

    Polar marine surface waters are characterized by high levels of dissolved oxygen, seasonally intense UV irradiance and high levels of dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice habitat is regarded as a strongly pro-oxidant environment, even though its significant ice cover protects the ice-associated (=sympagic) fauna from direct irradiation to a large extent. In order to investigate the level of resistance to oxyradical stress, we sampled the sympagic amphipod species Gammarus wilkitzkii during both winter and summer conditions, as well as exposed specimens to simulated levels of near-natural and elevated levels of UV irradiation. Results showed that this amphipod species possessed a much stronger antioxidant capacity during summer than during winter. Also, the experimental UV exposure showed a depletion in antioxidant defences, indicating a negative effect of UV exposure on the total oxyradical scavenging capacity. Another sympagic organism, Onisimus nanseni, was sampled during summer conditions. When compared to G. wilkitzkii, the species showed even higher antioxidant scavenging capacity.

  15. Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernli, Heini; Papritz, Lukas

    2018-02-01

    Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

  16. Predictions replaced by facts: a keystone species' behavioural responses to declining arctic sea-ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Charmain D; Lydersen, Christian; Ims, Rolf A; Kovacs, Kit M

    2015-11-01

    Since the first documentation of climate-warming induced declines in arctic sea-ice, predictions have been made regarding the expected negative consequences for endemic marine mammals. But, several decades later, little hard evidence exists regarding the responses of these animals to the ongoing environmental changes. Herein, we report the first empirical evidence of a dramatic shift in movement patterns and foraging behaviour of the arctic endemic ringed seal (Pusa hispida), before and after a major collapse in sea-ice in Svalbard, Norway. Among other changes to the ice-regime, this collapse shifted the summer position of the marginal ice zone from over the continental shelf, northward to the deep Arctic Ocean Basin. Following this change, which is thought to be a 'tipping point', subadult ringed seals swam greater distances, showed less area-restricted search behaviour, dived for longer periods, exhibited shorter surface intervals, rested less on sea-ice and did less diving directly beneath the ice during post-moulting foraging excursions. In combination, these behavioural changes suggest increased foraging effort and thus also likely increases in the energetic costs of finding food. Continued declines in sea-ice are likely to result in distributional changes, range reductions and population declines in this keystone arctic species. © 2015 The Author(s).

  17. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hosek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

    The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

  18. Prediction Center (CPC) Polar Eurasia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Polar-Eurasia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  19. Airborne Tomographic Swath Ice Sounding Processing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoqing; Rodriquez, Ernesto; Freeman, Anthony; Jezek, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets modulate global sea level by storing water deposited as snow on the surface, and discharging water back into the ocean through melting. Their physical state can be characterized in terms of their mass balance and dynamics. To estimate the current ice mass balance, and to predict future changes in the motion of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, it is necessary to know the ice sheet thickness and the physical conditions of the ice sheet surface and bed. This information is required at fine resolution and over extensive portions of the ice sheets. A tomographic algorithm has been developed to take raw data collected by a multiple-channel synthetic aperture sounding radar system over a polar ice sheet and convert those data into two-dimensional (2D) ice thickness measurements. Prior to this work, conventional processing techniques only provided one-dimensional ice thickness measurements along profiles.

  20. Determination of heavy metals in polar snow and ice by laser-excited atomic fluorescence spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolshov, M.A.; Boutron, C.F.

    1994-01-01

    The new laser-excited atomic fluorescence spectrometry technique offers unrivalled sensitivity for the determination of trace metals in a wide variety of samples. This has allowed the direct determination of Pb, Cd and Bi in Antarctic and Greenland snow and ice down to the sub pg/g level. (authors). 11 refs., 2 figs

  1. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  2. NASA IceBridge and PolarTREC - Education and Outreach Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholow, S.; Warburton, J.; Beck, J.; Woods, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    PolarTREC-Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating, a teacher professional development program, began with the International Polar Year in 2004 and continues today in the United States. PolarTREC has worked specifically with OIB for 3 years and looking forward to ongoing collaboration. PolarTREC brings U.S. K­12 educators and polar researchers together through an innovative teacher research experience model. Participating teachers spend 3-6 weeks in the field with research teams conducting surveys and collecting data on various aspects of polar science. During their experience, teachers become research team members filling a variety of roles on the team. They also fulfill a unique role of public outreach officer, conducting live presentations about their field site and research as well as journaling, answering questions, and posting photos. Working with OIB has opened up the nature of science for the participating teachers. In developing the long-term relationship with OIB teams, teachers can now share (1) the diversity of training, backgrounds, and interests of OIB scientists, (2) identify the linkages between Greenlandic culture and community and cryospheric science and evidence of climate change, (3) network with Danish and Greenlandic educators on the mission (4) gain access to the full spectrum of a science project - development, implementation, analysis, networking, and dissemination of information. All aspects help these teachers become champions of NASA science and educational leaders in their communities. Evaluation data shows that PolarTREC has clearly achieved it goals with the OIB partnership and suggests that linking teachers and researchers can have the potential to transform the nature of science education. By giving teachers the content knowledge, pedagogical tools, confidence, understanding of science in the broader society, and experiences with scientific inquiry, participating teachers are using authentic scientific research in their

  3. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus mating during late June on the pack ice of northern Svalbard, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas G. Smith

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Polar bears are seasonal breeders and typically mate from late March to early May. Implantation is, however, delayed until autumn, which can allow plasticity in the date of mating. As for other seasonal breeders, a rapid return to estrus after the loss of dependent offspring can be expected, even into the summer. A few earlier observations and dissections of dead animals suggest that polar bears are able to mate in summer. We report on a mating incident on 29 June 2014, the first documented mating this late in the season among wild polar bears. The female had lost her dependent cub during the period prior to the mating event. We speculate that she lost this cub late in the mating season, entered estrus and successfully mated in late June.

  4. Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagol, Ece

    Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine

  5. NON-RACEMIC AMINO ACID PRODUCTION BY ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIATION OF ACHIRAL INTERSTELLAR ICE ANALOGS WITH CIRCULARLY POLARIZED LIGHT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Marcellus, Pierre; Nuevo, Michel; Danger, Gregoire; Deboffle, Dominique; Le Sergeant d'Hendecourt, Louis; Meinert, Cornelia; Filippi, Jean-Jacques; Meierhenrich, Uwe J.; Nahon, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    The delivery of organic matter to the primitive Earth via comets and meteorites has long been hypothesized to be an important source for prebiotic compounds such as amino acids or their chemical precursors that contributed to the development of prebiotic chemistry leading, on Earth, to the emergence of life. Photochemistry of inter/circumstellar ices around protostellar objects is a potential process leading to complex organic species, although difficult to establish from limited infrared observations only. Here we report the first abiotic cosmic ice simulation experiments that produce species with enantiomeric excesses (e.e.'s). Circularly polarized ultraviolet light (UV-CPL) from a synchrotron source induces asymmetric photochemistry on initially achiral inter/circumstellar ice analogs. Enantioselective multidimensional gas chromatography measurements show significant e.e.'s of up to 1.34% for ( 13 C)-alanine, for which the signs and absolute values are related to the helicity and number of CPL photons per deposited molecule. This result, directly comparable with some L excesses measured in meteorites, supports a scenario in which exogenous delivery of organics displaying a slight L excess, produced in an extraterrestrial environment by an asymmetric astrophysical process, is at the origin of biomolecular asymmetry on Earth. As a consequence, a fraction of the meteoritic organic material consisting of non-racemic compounds may well have been formed outside the solar system. Finally, following this hypothesis, we support the idea that the protosolar nebula has indeed been formed in a region of massive star formation, regions where UV-CPL of the same helicity is actually observed over large spatial areas.

  6. Communicating polar science to the general public: sharing the social media experience of @OceanSeaIceNPI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rösel, Anja; Pavlov, Alexey K.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Meyer, Amelie; Hudson, Stephen R.; King, Jennifer; Itkin, Polona; Cohen, Lana; Dodd, Paul; de Steur, Laura

    2016-04-01

    The findings of climate science need to be communicated to the general public. Researchers are encouraged to do so by journalists, policy-makers and funding agencies and many of us want to become better science communicators. But how can we do this at the lab or small research group level without specifically allocated resources in terms of funds and communication officers? And how do we sustain communication on a regular basis and not just during the limited lifetime of a specific project? One of the solutions is to use the emerging platform of social media, which has become a powerful and inexpensive tool for communicating science to different target audiences. Many research institutions and individual researchers are already advanced users of social media, but small research groups and labs remain underrepresented. The group of oceanographers, sea ice and atmospheric scientists at the Norwegian Polar Institute (@OceanSeaIceNPI( will share our experiences developing and maintaining researcher-driven outreach for over a year through Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. We will present our solutions to some of the practical considerations such as identifying key target groups, defining the framework for sharing responsibilities and interactions within the research group, and choosing an up-to-date and appropriate social medium. By sharing this information, we aim to inspire and assist other research groups and labs in conducting their own effective science communication.

  7. Females roam while males patrol: divergence in breeding season movements of pack-ice polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Gurarie, Eliezer; Wiig, Øystein; Dietz, Rune; Stern, Harry

    2013-02-07

    Intraspecific differences in movement behaviour reflect different tactics used by individuals or sexes to favour strategies that maximize fitness. We report movement data collected from n = 23 adult male polar bears with novel ear-attached transmitters in two separate pack ice subpopulations over five breeding seasons. We compared movements with n = 26 concurrently tagged adult females, and analysed velocities, movement tortuosity, range sizes and habitat selection with respect to sex, reproductive status and body mass. There were no differences in 4-day displacements or sea ice habitat selection for sex or population. By contrast, adult females in all years and both populations had significantly more linear movements and significantly larger breeding range sizes than males. We hypothesized that differences were related to encounter rates, and used observed movement metrics to parametrize a simulation model of male-male and male-female encounter. The simulation showed that the more tortuous movement of males leads to significantly longer times to male-male encounter, while having little impact on male-female encounter. By contrast, linear movements of females are consistent with a prioritized search for sparsely distributed prey. These results suggest a possible mechanism for explaining the smaller breeding range sizes of some solitary male carnivores compared to females.

  8. Females roam while males patrol: divergence in breeding season movements of pack-ice polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laidre, Kristin L.; Born, Erik W.; Gurarie, Eliezer; Wiig, Øystein; Dietz, Rune; Stern, Harry

    2013-01-01

    Intraspecific differences in movement behaviour reflect different tactics used by individuals or sexes to favour strategies that maximize fitness. We report movement data collected from n = 23 adult male polar bears with novel ear-attached transmitters in two separate pack ice subpopulations over five breeding seasons. We compared movements with n = 26 concurrently tagged adult females, and analysed velocities, movement tortuosity, range sizes and habitat selection with respect to sex, reproductive status and body mass. There were no differences in 4-day displacements or sea ice habitat selection for sex or population. By contrast, adult females in all years and both populations had significantly more linear movements and significantly larger breeding range sizes than males. We hypothesized that differences were related to encounter rates, and used observed movement metrics to parametrize a simulation model of male–male and male–female encounter. The simulation showed that the more tortuous movement of males leads to significantly longer times to male–male encounter, while having little impact on male–female encounter. By contrast, linear movements of females are consistent with a prioritized search for sparsely distributed prey. These results suggest a possible mechanism for explaining the smaller breeding range sizes of some solitary male carnivores compared to females. PMID:23222446

  9. Selection of Parameters and Architecture of Multilayer Perceptrons for Predicting Ice Coverage of Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baklagin Nikolaevich Vyacheslav

    2017-09-01

    MSE¯=0.0105$\\overline {MSE} = 0.0105$ have the least mean-squared error for the last training epoch. Tests within the holdout samples prove that multilayer perceptrons give more adequate and reliable prediction of the ice coverage of Lake Onega (mean-squared prediction error MSPE = 0.0076 comparing with statistical methods such as linear regression, moving average and autoregressive analyses of the first and second order.

  10. Collar temperature sensor data reveal long-term patterns in southern Beaufort Sea polar bear den distribution on pack ice and land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Jay W; Rode, Karyn D.; Eggett, Dennis L.; Smith, T.S.; Wilson, R. R.; Durner, George M.; Fischbach, Anthony; Atwood, Todd C.; Douglas, David

    2017-01-01

    In response to a changing climate, many species alter habitat use. Polar bears Ursus maritimus in the southern Beaufort Sea have increasingly used land for maternal denning. To aid in detecting denning behavior, we developed an objective method to identify polar bear denning events using temperature sensor data collected by satellite-linked transmitters deployed on adult females between 1985 and 2013. We then applied this method to determine whether southern Beaufort Sea polar bears have continued to increase land denning with recent sea-ice loss and examined whether sea-ice conditions affect the distribution of dens between pack-ice and coastal substrates. Because land use in summer and autumn has also increased, we examined potential associations between summering substrate and denning substrate. Statistical process control methods applied to temperature-sensor data identified denning events with 94.5% accuracy in comparison to direct observations (n = 73) and 95.7% accuracy relative to subjective classifications based on temperature, location, and activity sensor data (n = 116). We found an increase in land-based denning during the study period. The frequency of land denning was directly related to the distance that sea ice retreated from the coast. Among females that denned, all 14 that summered on land subsequently denned there, whereas 29% of the 69 bears summering on ice denned on land. These results suggest that denning on land may continue to increase with further loss of sea ice. While the effects that den substrate have on nutrition, energetics, and reproduction are unclear, more polar bears denning onshore will likely increase human-bear interactions.

  11. Effects of solution composition on the theoretical prediction of ice nucleation kinetics and thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Jens O M

    2010-02-01

    Predictions by various mathematical models of intracellular ice formation (proposed by Mazur, Pitt, Toner, and Karlsson, respectively) were compared to the known thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of ice formation in supercooled aqueous systems. The older models (Mazur, Pitt, and Toner) significantly underestimated the magnitude of colligative nonequilibrium freezing point depression in response to increased concentration of solutes, such as salts or cryoprotectants. Furthermore, kinetics predicted using phenomenological models (by Mazur and Pitt) exhibited implausible temperature-dependence, with the probability of intracellular ice formation being allowed to increase even at temperatures below the glass transition point. The Toner model, on the other hand, produced invalid results at temperatures below -48 degrees C. The Karlsson model was the only model that consistently yielded realistic predictions over a wide range of temperatures and solute concentrations, especially in the presence of cryoprotectant additives. To facilitate adoption of the Karlsson model of intracellular ice nucleation, the complete set of model equations has been collected and described in detail. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

    2015-06-01

    The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Use of water stable isotopes in climatology and paleoclimatology illustrated from polar ice cores studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jouzel, J.; Lorius, C.

    1994-01-01

    The isotopic content of ancient waters (deuterium and oxygen 18) gives a key access to past climatic changes. An essentially linear relationship exists between the isotopic content of a precipitation and the temperature of the site (at least for medium and high latitudes). This link between water isotope atmospheric cycle and climate is presented through various isotopic models and illustrated from the deuterium profile obtained along the Vostok ice core in East Antarctica. This 2 km record which covers a full glacial-interglacial cycle (160000 years) confirms the existence of a link between insolation changes and climate (Milankovitch theory). It shows also that the greenhouse effect has played a role in glacial-interglacial changes in amplifying this orbital forcing. (authors). 10 figs., 23 refs

  14. Longer ice-free seasons increase the risk of nest depredation by polar bears for colonial breeding birds in the Canadian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, H Grant; Smith, Paul A; Gaston, Anthony J; Forbes, Mark R

    2014-03-22

    Northern polar regions have warmed more than other parts of the globe potentially amplifying the effects of climate change on biological communities. Ice-free seasons are becoming longer in many areas, which has reduced the time available to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to hunt for seals and hampered bears' ability to meet their energetic demands. In this study, we examined polar bears' use of an ancillary prey resource, eggs of colonial nesting birds, in relation to diminishing sea ice coverage in a low latitude region of the Canadian Arctic. Long-term monitoring reveals that bear incursions onto common eider (Somateria mollissima) and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) nesting colonies have increased greater than sevenfold since the 1980s and that there is an inverse correlation between ice season length and bear presence. In surveys encompassing more than 1000 km of coastline during years of record low ice coverage (2010-2012), we encountered bears or bear sign on 34% of eider colonies and estimated greater egg loss as a consequence of depredation by bears than by more customary nest predators, such as foxes and gulls. Our findings demonstrate how changes in abiotic conditions caused by climate change have altered predator-prey dynamics and are leading to cascading ecological impacts in Arctic ecosystems.

  15. What Determines the Ice Polymorph in Clouds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudait, Arpa; Molinero, Valeria

    2016-07-20

    Ice crystals in the atmosphere nucleate from supercooled liquid water and grow by vapor uptake. The structure of the ice polymorph grown has strong impact on the morphology and light scattering of the ice crystals, modulates the amount of water vapor in ice clouds, and can impact the molecular uptake and reactivity of atmospheric aerosols. Experiments and molecular simulations indicate that ice nucleated and grown from deeply supercooled liquid water is metastable stacking disordered ice. The ice polymorph grown from vapor has not yet been determined. Here we use large-scale molecular simulations to determine the structure of ice that grows as a result of uptake of water vapor in the temperature range relevant to cirrus and mixed-phase clouds, elucidate the molecular mechanism of the formation of ice at the vapor interface, and compute the free energy difference between cubic and hexagonal ice interfaces with vapor. We find that vapor deposition results in growth of stacking disordered ice only under conditions of extreme supersaturation, for which a nonequilibrium liquid layer completely wets the surface of ice. Such extreme conditions have been used to produce stacking disordered frost ice in experiments and may be plausible in the summer polar mesosphere. Growth of ice from vapor at moderate supersaturations in the temperature range relevant to cirrus and mixed-phase clouds, from 200 to 260 K, produces exclusively the stable hexagonal ice polymorph. Cubic ice is disfavored with respect to hexagonal ice not only by a small penalty in the bulk free energy (3.6 ± 1.5 J mol(-1) at 260 K) but also by a large free energy penalty at the ice-vapor interface (89.7 ± 12.8 J mol(-1) at 260 K). The latter originates in higher vibrational entropy of the hexagonal-terminated ice-vapor interface. We predict that the free energy penalty against the cubic ice interface should decrease strongly with temperature, resulting in some degree of stacking disorder in ice grown from

  16. Quantum Chemical Study of the Reaction of C+ with Interstellar Ice: Predictions of Vibrational and Electronic Spectra of Reaction Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woon, David E.

    2015-06-01

    The C+ cation (CII) is the dominant form of carbon in diffuse clouds and an important tracer for star formation in molecular clouds. We studied the low energy deposition of C+ on ice using density functional theory calculations on water clusters as large as 18 H2O. Barrierless reactions occur with water to form two dominant sets of products: HOC + H3O+ and CO- + 2H3O+. In order to provide testable predictions, we have computed both vibrational and electronic spectra for pure ice and processed ice clusters. While vibrational spectroscopy is expected to be able to discern that C+ has reacted with ice by the addition of H3O+ features not present in pure ice, it does not provided characteristic bands that would discern between HOC and CO-. On the other hand, predictions of electronic spectra suggest that low energy absorptions may occur for CO- and not HOC, making it possible to distinguish one product from the other.

  17. CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-05-12

    The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of the ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.

  18. The evolution of the englacial temperature distribution in the superimposed ice zone of a polar ice cap during a summer season

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greuell, W.; Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    The aim of the present investigation was to provide more insight into the processes affecting the evolution of the englacial temperature distribution at a non-temperate location on a glacier. Measurements were made in the top 10 m of the ice at the summit of Laika Ice Cap (Canadian Arctic)

  19. Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and

  20. Remote sensing of ice crystal asymmetry parameter using multi-directional polarization measurements – Part 1: Methodology and evaluation with simulated measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a new remote sensing technique to infer the average asymmetry parameter of ice crystals near cloud top from multi-directional polarization measurements. The method is based on previous findings that (a complex aggregates of hexagonal crystals generally have scattering phase matrices resembling those of their components; and (b scattering phase matrices systematically vary with aspect ratios of crystals and their degree of microscale surface roughness. Ice cloud asymmetry parameters are inferred from multi-directional polarized reflectance measurements by searching for the closest fit in a look-up table of simulated polarized reflectances computed for cloud layers that contain individual, randomly oriented hexagonal columns and plates with varying aspect ratios and roughness values. The asymmetry parameter of the hexagonal particle that leads to the best fit with the measurements is considered the retrieved value. For clouds with optical thickness less than 5, the cloud optical thickness must be retrieved simultaneously with the asymmetry parameter, while for optically thicker clouds the asymmetry parameter retrieval is independent of cloud optical thickness. Evaluation of the technique using simulated measurements based on the optical properties of a number of complex particles and their mixtures shows that the ice crystal asymmetry parameters are generally retrieved to within 5%, or about 0.04 in absolute terms. The retrieval scheme is largely independent of calibration errors, range and sampling density of scattering angles and random noise in the measurements. The approach can be applied to measurements of past, current and future airborne and satellite instruments that measure multi-directional polarized reflectances of ice-topped clouds.

  1. Evidence for surface water ice in the lunar polar regions using reflectance measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and temperature measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Elizabeth A.; Lucey, Paul G.; Lemelin, Myriam; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Mazarico, Erwan; Aharonson, Oded; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Hayne, Paul O.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Paige, David A.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.

    2017-08-01

    We find that the reflectance of the lunar surface within 5° of latitude of the South Pole increases rapidly with decreasing temperature, near ∼110 K, behavior consistent with the presence of surface water ice. The North polar region does not show this behavior, nor do South polar surfaces at latitudes more than 5° from the pole. This South pole reflectance anomaly persists when analysis is limited to surfaces with slopes less than 10° to eliminate false detection due to the brightening effect of mass wasting, and also when the very bright south polar crater Shackleton is excluded from the analysis. We also find that south polar regions of permanent shadow that have been reported to be generally brighter at 1064 nm do not show anomalous reflectance when their annual maximum surface temperatures are too high to preserve water ice. This distinction is not observed at the North Pole. The reflectance excursion on surfaces with maximum temperatures below 110 K is superimposed on a general trend of increasing reflectance with decreasing maximum temperature that is present throughout the polar regions in the north and south; we attribute this trend to a temperature or illumination-dependent space weathering effect (e.g. Hemingway et al., 2015). We also find a sudden increase in reflectance with decreasing temperature superimposed on the general trend at 200 K and possibly at 300 K. This may indicate the presence of other volatiles such as sulfur or organics. We identified and mapped surfaces with reflectances so high as to be unlikely to be part of an ice-free population. In this south we find a similar distribution found by Hayne et al. (2015) based on UV properties. In the north a cluster of pixels near that pole may represent a limited frost exposure.

  2. Copepods in ice-covered seas—Distribution, adaptations to seasonally limited food, metabolism, growth patterns and life cycle strategies in polar seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conover, R. J.; Huntley, M.

    1991-07-01

    While a seasonal ice cover limits light penetration into both polar seas for up to ten months a year, its presence is not entirely negative. The mixed layer under sea ice will generally be shallower than in open water at the same latitude and season. Ice forms a substrate on which primary production can be concentrated, a condition which contrasts with the generally dilute nutritional conditions which prevail in the remaining ocean. The combination of a shallow, generally stable mixed layer with a close proximity to abundant food make the under-ice zone a suitable nursery for both pelagic and benthic species, an upside-down benthos for opportunistic substrate browsers, and a rich feeding environment for species often considered to be neritic in temperate environments. Where the ice cover is not continuous there may be a retreating ice edge that facilitates the seasonal production of phytoplankton primarily through increased stability from the melt water. Ice edge blooms similarly encourage secondary production by pelagic animals. Pseudocalanus acuspes, which may be the most abundant and productive copepod in north polar latitudes, initiates growth at the start of the "spring bloom" of epontic algae, reaching sexual maturity at breakup or slightly before. In the Southern Hemisphere, the small neritic copepod Paralabidocera antarctica and adult krill have been observed to utilize ice algae. Calanus hyperboreus breeds in the dark season at depth and its buoyant eggs, slowly developing on the ascent, reach the under-ice layer in April as nauplii ready to benefit from the primary production there. On the other hand, C. glacialis may initiate ontogenetic migrations and reproduction in response to increased erosion of ice algae due to solar warming and melting at the ice-water interface. While the same species in a phytoplankton bloom near the ice edge reproduces actively, those under still-consolidated ice nearby can have immature gonads. Diel migration and diel feeding

  3. Constraining the Depth of Polar Ice Deposits and Evolution of Cold Traps on Mercury with Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Ariel N.; Head, James W.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Chabot, Nancy L.

    2017-01-01

    Earth-based radar observations revealed highly reflective deposits at the poles of Mercury [e.g., 1], which collocate with permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) detected from both imagery and altimetry by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft [e.g., 2]. MESSENGER also measured higher hydrogen concentrations at the north polar region, consistent with models for these deposits to be composed primarily of water ice [3]. Enigmatic to the characterization of ice deposits on Mercury is the thickness of these radar-bright features. A current minimum bound of several meters exists from the radar measurements, which show no drop in the radar cross section between 13- and 70-cm wavelength observations [4, 5]. A maximum thickness of 300 m is based on the lack of any statistically significant difference between the height of craters that host radar-bright deposits and those that do not [6]. More recently, this upper limit on the depth of a typical ice deposit has been lowered to approximately 150 m, in a study that found a mean excess thickness of 50 +/- 35 m of radar-bright deposits for 6 craters [7]. Refining such a constraint permits the derivation of a volumetric estimate of the total polar ice on Mercury, thus providing insight into possible sources of water ice on the planet. Here, we take a different approach to constrain the thickness of water-ice deposits. Permanently shadowed surfaces have been resolved in images acquired with the broadband filter on MESSENGER's wide-angle camera (WAC) using low levels of light scattered by crater walls and other topography [8]. These surfaces are not featureless and often host small craters (less than a few km in diameter). Here we utilize the presence of these small simple craters to constrain the thickness of the radar-bright ice deposits on Mercury. Specifically, we compare estimated depths made from depth-to-diameter ratios and depths from individual Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA

  4. Determination of Osmium concentration and isotope composition at ultra-low level in polar ice and snow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Ji-Hye; Sharma, Mukul; Osterberg, Erich; Jackson, Brian P

    2018-04-08

    Here we use two chemical separation procedures to determine exceptionally low Os concentrations (~10-15 g g-1) and Os isotopic composition in polar snow/ice. Melt water weighing approximately 50 g is spiked with 190Os tracer solution and frozen at -20 °C in quartz-glass ampoules. A mixture of H2O2 and HNO3 is then added and the sample is heated to 300 °C at 100 bar using a High Pressure Asher. This allows tracer Os to be equilibrated with the sample as all Os species are oxidized to OsO4. The resulting OsO4 is extracted using either distillation (Method-I) or solvent-extraction (Method-II), purified, and measured using negative thermal ionization mass spectrometry (N-TIMS). A new technique is presented that minimizes Re and Os blanks of the Pt filaments used in N-TIMS. A Pt-Pt double filament geometry is then used to minimize hydrocarbon and Re isobaric mass interferences. We analyzed snow collected from Summit, Greenland during 2009, 2014, and 2017. We find that the average Os concentration of the snow is 0.459 ± 0.018 (95% C.I.) fg g-1 corresponding to an Os flux of 0.0579 ± 0.0023 (95% C.I.) fmol cm-2 yr-1. The average R(187Os/188Os) ratio of the Summit snow is 0.26 ± 0.11 (95% C.I.). Assuming that the volcanic source is negligible, the average ratio indicates that about 0.052 ± 0.004 (95% C.I.) fmol cm-2 yr-1 of Os is of cosmic derivation corresponding to an accretion rate of extra-terrestrial Os to the Earth of 264 ± 21 mol yr-1.

  5. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Nicholas J.; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture–recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993–1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653–984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001–2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98–1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00–1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92–1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

  6. Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunn, Nicholas J; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V; Converse, Sarah J; Richardson, Evan; Stirling, Ian

    2016-07-01

    Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of

  7. Snow nitrate photolysis in polar regions and the mid-latitudes: Impact on boundary layer chemistry and implications for ice core records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatko, Maria C.

    The formation and recycling of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO 2) associated with snow nitrate photolysis has important implications for air quality and the preservation of nitrate in ice core records. This dissertation examines snow nitrate photolysis in polar and mid-latitude regions using field and laboratory based observations combined with snow chemistry column models and a global chemical transport model to explore the impacts of snow nitrate photolysis on boundary layer chemistry and the preservation of nitrate in polar ice cores. Chapter 1 describes how a global chemical transport model is used to calculate the photolysis-driven flux and redistribution of nitrogen across Antarctica, and Chapter 2 presents similar work for Greenland. Snow-sourced NOx is most dependent on the quantum yield for nitrate photolysis as well as the concentration of photolabile nitrate and light-absorbing impurities (e.g., black carbon, dust, organics) in snow. Model-calculated fluxes of snow-sourced NOx are similar in magnitude in Antarctica (0.5--7.8x108 molec cm-2 s -1) and Greenland (0.1--6.4x108 molec cm-2 s-1) because both nitrate and light-absorbing impurity concentrations in snow are higher (by factors of 2 and 10, respectively) in Greenland. Snow nitrate photolysis influences boundary layer chemistry and ice-core nitrate preservation less in Greenland compared to Antarctica largely due to Greenland's proximity to NOx-source regions. Chapter 3 describes how a snow chemistry column model combined with chemistry and optical measurements from the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) 2014 is used to calculate snow-sourced NOx in eastern Utah. Daily-averaged fluxes of snow-sourced NOx (2.9x10 7--1.3x108 molec cm-2 s-1) are similar in magnitude to polar snow-sourced NO x fluxes, but are only minor components of the Uintah Basin boundary layer NOx budget and can be neglected when developing ozone reduction strategies for the region. Chapter 4 presents chemical and optical

  8. Antarctic Ice Velocity Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This compilation of recent ice velocity data of the Antarctic ice sheet is intended for use by the polar scientific community. The data are presented in tabular form...

  9. The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR. According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO, which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability.

  10. Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

    2018-04-01

    The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

  11. The 2140 cm(exp -1) (4.673 Microns) Solid CO Band: The Case for Interstellar O2 and N2 and the Photochemistry of Non-Polar Interstellar Ice Analogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsila, Jamie; Allamandola, Louis J.; Sandford, Scott A.; Witteborn, Fred C. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    The infrared spectra of CO frozen in non-polar ices containing N2, CO2, O2, and H2O, and the ultraviolet photochemistry of these interstellar/precometary ice analogs are reported. The spectra are used to test the hypothesis that the narrow 2140/cm (4.673 micrometer) interstellar absorption feature attributed to solid CO might be produced by CO frozen in ices containing non-polar species such as N2 and O2. It is shown that mixed molecular ices containing CO, N2, O2, and CO2 provide a very good match to the interstellar band at all temperatures between 12 and 30 K both before and after photolysis. The optical constants (real and imaginary parts of the index of refraction) in the region of the solid CO feature are reported for several of these ices.

  12. AMSR-E/Aqua Daily L3 25 km Tb and Sea Ice Concentration Polar Grids V003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AMSR-E/Aqua Level-3 25 km daily sea ice product includes 6.9 - 89.0 GHz TBs and sea ice concentration averages (daily, ascending, and descending) on a 25 km...

  13. AMSR-E/Aqua Daily L3 25 km Tb and Sea Ice Concentration Polar Grids V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AMSR-E/Aqua Level-3 25 km daily sea ice product includes 6.9 - 89.0 GHz TBs and sea ice concentration averages (daily, ascending, and descending) on a 25 km...

  14. Preliminary Polar Sea Trials of Nereid-UI: A Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicle for Oceanographic Access Under Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitcomb, L. L.; Jakuba, M.; German, C. R.; Bowen, A.; Yoerger, D.; Kinsey, J. C.; Mayer, L.; McFarland, C.; Suman, S.; Bailey, J.; Judge, C.; Elliott, S.; Gomez-Ibanez, D.; Taylor, C. L.; Machado, C.; Howland, J. C.; Kaiser, C.; Heintz, M.; Pontbriand, C.; O'Hara, L.; McDonald, G.; Boetius, A.

    2014-12-01

    We report the development and deployment of a remotely-controlled underwater robotic vehicle capable of being teleoperated under ice under real-time human supervision. The Nereid Under-Ice (Nereid-UI or NUI) vehicle enables exploration and detailed examination of biological and physical environments including the ice-ocean interface in marginal ice zones, in the water column of ice-covered seas, at glacial ice-tongues, and ice-shelf margins, delivering realtime high definition video in addition to survey data from on board acoustic, optical, chemical, and biological sensors. The vehicle employs a novel lightweight fiber-optic tether that will enable it to be deployed from a ship to attain standoff distances of up to 20 km from an ice-edge boundary. We conducted NUI's first under-ice deployments during the July 2014 F/V Polarstern PS86 expedition at 86° N 6 W° in the Arctic Ocean - near the Aurora hydrothermal vent site on the Gakkel Ridge approximately 200 km NE of Greenland. We conducted 4 dives to evaluate and develop NUI's overall functioning and its individual engineered subsystems. On each dive, dead-reckoning (Ice-locked Doppler sonar and north-seeking gyrocompass) complemented by acoustic ranging provided navigation, supporting closed-loop control of heading, depth, and XY position relative to the ice. Science operations included multibeam transects of under-ice topography, precision vertical profiles for the bio-sensor suite and IR/radiance sensor suite, IR/radiance/multibeam transects at constant depth interlaced with vertical profiles and upward-looking digital still-camera surveys of the ice, including areas rich with algal material. The fiber-optic tether remained intact throughout most of all 4 dives. Consistent with the NUI concept of operations, in 3 of 4 dives the fiber-optic tether eventually failed, and the vehicle was then commanded acoustically in a series of short-duration maneuvers to return to Polarstern for recovery. These preliminary

  15. Polarization modeling and predictions for DKIST part 3: focal ratio and thermal dependencies of spectral polarization fringes and optic retardance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, David M.; Sueoka, Stacey R.

    2018-01-01

    Data products from high spectral resolution astronomical polarimeters are often limited by fringes. Fringes can skew derived magnetic field properties from spectropolarimetric data. Fringe removal algorithms can also corrupt the data if the fringes and object signals are too similar. For some narrow-band imaging polarimeters, fringes change the calibration retarder properties and dominate the calibration errors. Systems-level engineering tools for polarimetric instrumentation require accurate predictions of fringe amplitudes, periods for transmission, diattenuation, and retardance. The relevant instabilities caused by environmental, thermal, and optical properties can be modeled and mitigation tools developed. We create spectral polarization fringe amplitude and temporal instability predictions by applying the Berreman calculus and simple interferometric calculations to optics in beams of varying F/ number. We then apply the formalism to superachromatic six-crystal retarders in converging beams under beam thermal loading in outdoor environmental conditions for two of the world's largest observatories: the 10-m Keck telescope and the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST). DKIST will produce a 300-W optical beam, which has imposed stringent requirements on the large diameter six-crystal retarders, dichroic beamsplitters, and internal optics. DKIST retarders are used in a converging beam with F/ ratios between 8 and 62. The fringe spectral periods, amplitudes, and thermal models of retarder behavior assisted DKIST optical designs and calibration plans with future application to many astronomical spectropolarimeters. The Low Resolution Imaging Spectrograph with polarimetry instrument at Keck also uses six-crystal retarders in a converging F / 13 beam in a Cassegrain focus exposed to summit environmental conditions providing observational verification of our predictions.

  16. A snow and ice melt seasonal prediction modelling system for Alpine reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Förster, Kristian; Oesterle, Felix; Hanzer, Florian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Strasser, Ulrich

    2016-10-01

    The timing and the volume of snow and ice melt in Alpine catchments are crucial for management operations of reservoirs and hydropower generation. Moreover, a sustainable reservoir operation through reservoir storage and flow control as part of flood risk management is important for downstream communities. Forecast systems typically provide predictions for a few days in advance. Reservoir operators would benefit if lead times could be extended in order to optimise the reservoir management. Current seasonal prediction products such as the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) enable seasonal forecasts up to nine months in advance, with of course decreasing accuracy as lead-time increases. We present a coupled seasonal prediction modelling system that runs at monthly time steps for a small catchment in the Austrian Alps (Gepatschalm). Meteorological forecasts are obtained from the CFSv2 model. Subsequently, these data are downscaled to the Alpine Water balance And Runoff Estimation model AWARE running at monthly time step. Initial conditions are obtained using the physically based, hydro-climatological snow model AMUNDSEN that predicts hourly fields of snow water equivalent and snowmelt at a regular grid with 50 m spacing. Reservoir inflow is calculated taking into account various runs of the CFSv2 model. These simulations are compared with observed inflow volumes for the melting and accumulation period 2015.

  17. High-precision dual-inlet IRMS measurements of the stable isotopes of CO2 and the N2O / CO2 ratio from polar ice core samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. K. Bauska

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available An important constraint on mechanisms of past carbon cycle variability is provided by the stable isotopic composition of carbon in atmospheric carbon dioxide (δ13C-CO2 trapped in polar ice cores, but obtaining very precise measurements has proven to be a significant analytical challenge. Here we describe a new technique to determine the δ13C of CO2 at very high precision, as well as measuring the CO2 and N2O mixing ratios. In this method, ancient air is extracted from relatively large ice samples (~400 g with a dry-extraction "ice grater" device. The liberated air is cryogenically purified to a CO2 and N2O mixture and analyzed with a microvolume-equipped dual-inlet IRMS (Thermo MAT 253. The reproducibility of the method, based on replicate analysis of ice core samples, is 0.02‰ for δ13C-CO2 and 2 ppm and 4 ppb for the CO2 and N2O mixing ratios, respectively (1σ pooled standard deviation. Our experiments show that minimizing water vapor pressure in the extraction vessel by housing the grating apparatus in a ultralow-temperature freezer (−60 °C improves the precision and decreases the experimental blank of the method to −0.07 ± 0.04‰. We describe techniques for accurate calibration of small samples and the application of a mass-spectrometric method based on source fragmentation for reconstructing the N2O history of the atmosphere. The oxygen isotopic composition of CO2 is also investigated, confirming previous observations of oxygen exchange between gaseous CO2 and solid H2O within the ice archive. These data offer a possible constraint on oxygen isotopic fractionation during H2O and CO2 exchange below the H2O bulk melting temperature.

  18. Charging of ice-vapor interfaces: applications to thunderstorms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nelson

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The build-up of intrinsic Bjerrum and ionic defects at ice-vapor interfaces electrically charges ice surfaces and thus gives rise to many phenomena including thermoelectricity, ferroelectric ice films, sparks from objects in blizzards, electromagnetic emissions accompanying cracking in avalanches, glaciers, and sea ice, and charge transfer during ice-ice collisions in thunderstorms. Fletcher's theory of the ice surface in equilibrium proposed that the Bjerrum defects have a higher rate of creation at the surface than in the bulk, which produces a high concentration of surface D defects that then attract a high concentration of OH- ions at the surface. Here, we add to this theory the effect of a moving interface caused by growth or sublimation. This effect can increase the amount of ionic surface charges more than 10-fold for growth rates near 1 mm s-1 and can extend the spatial separation of interior charges in qualitative agreement with many observations. In addition, ice-ice collisions should generate sufficient pressure to melt ice at the contact region and we argue that the ice particle with the initially sharper point at contact loses more mass of melt than the other particle. A simple analytic model of this process with parameters that are consistent with observations leads to predicted collisional charge exchange that semiquantitatively explains the negative charging region of thunderstorms. The model also has implications for snowflake formation, ferroelectric ice, polarization of ice in snowpacks, and chemical reactions in ice surfaces

  19. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2018-03-01

    We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

  20. Legal Ice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandsbjerg, Jeppe

    for alternative legal thought and practice; in the following I will emphasise the former and reflect upon the relationship between ice, law and politics. Prior to this workshop I had worked more on the relationship between cartography, geography and boundaries than specifically on ice. Listening to all...... the interesting conversations during the workshop, however, made me think that much of the concern with the Polar Regions in general, and the presence of ice in particular, reverberates around the question of how to accommodate various geographical presences and practices within the regulatory framework that we...

  1. Trials and Tribulations of Fluorescent Dissolved Organic Matter Chemical Interpretations: A case study of polar ice cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrilli, J.

    2017-12-01

    Excitation emission matrix fluorescence spectroscopy is widely applied for rapid dissolved organic matter (DOM) characterization in aquatic systems. Fluorescent DOM surveys are booming, not only as a central focus in aquatic environments, but also as an important addition to interdisciplinary research (e.g., DOM analysis in concert with ice core paleoclimate reconstructions, stream metabolism, hydrologic regimes, agricultural developments, and biological activity), opening new doors, not just for novelty, but also for more challenges with chemical interpretations. Recently, the commonly used protein- versus humic-like classifications of DOM have been ineffective at describing DOM chemistry in various systems (e.g., ice cores, wastewaters, incubations/engineered). Moreover, the oversimplification of such classifications used to describe fluorescing components, without further scrutiny, has become commonplace, ultimately producing vague reporting. For example, West Antarctic ice core DOM was shown to contain fluorescence in the low excitation/emission wavelength region, however resolved fluorophores depicting tyrosine- and tryptophan-like DOM were not observed. At first, as literature suggested, we reported this result as protein-like, and concluded that microbial contributions were dominant in deep ice. That initial interpretation would disintegrate the conservation paradigm of atmospheric composition during deposition, the crux of ice core research, and contradict other lines of evidence. This begged the question, "How can we describe DOM chemistry without distinct fluorophores?" Antarctic ice core DOM was dominated by neither tyrosine- nor tryptophan-like fluorescence, causing "unusual" looking fluorescent components. After further examination, deep ice DOM was reported to contain fluorescent species most similar to monolignols and tannin-like phenols, describing the precursors of lignin from low carbon producing environments, consistent with marine sediment

  2. Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived From Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Ryan, Stephen W.; Burke, Laura M.; McCurdy, David R.; Fittje, James E.; Joyner, Claude R.

    2017-01-01

    Since the 1960s, scientists have conjectured that water icecould survive in the cold, permanently shadowed craters located at the Moons poles Clementine (1994), Lunar Prospector (1998),Chandrayaan-1 (2008), and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) (2009) lunar probes have provided data indicating the existence of large quantities of water ice at the lunar poles The Mini-SAR onboard Chandrayaan-1discovered more than 40 permanently shadowed craters near the lunar north pole that are thought to contain 600 million metric tons of water ice. Using neutron spectrometer data, the Lunar Prospector science team estimated a water ice content (1.5 +-0.8 wt in the regolith) found in the Moons polar cold trap sand estimated the total amount of water at both poles at 2 billion metric tons Using Mini-RF and spectrometry data, the LRO LCROSS science team estimated the water ice content in the regolith in the south polar region to be 5.6 +-2.9 wt. On the basis of the above scientific data, it appears that the water ice content can vary from 1-10 wt and the total quantity of LPI at both poles can range from 600 million to 2 billion metric tons NTP offers significant benefits for lunar missions and can take advantage of the leverage provided from using LDPs when they become available by transitioning to LANTR propulsion. LANTR provides a variablethrust and Isp capability, shortens burn times and extends engine life, and allows bipropellant operation The combination of LANTR and LDP has performance capability equivalent to that of a hypothetical gaseousfuel core NTR (effective Isp 1575 s) and can lead to a robust LTS with unique mission capabilities that include short transit time crewed cargo transports and routine commuter flights to the Moon The biggest challenge to making this vision a reality will be the production of increasing amounts of LDP andthe development of propellant depots in LEO, LLO and LPO. An industry

  3. Preliminary probabilistic prediction of ice/snow accretion on stay cables based on meteorological variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roldsgaard, Joan Hee; Kiremidjian, A.; Georgakis, Christos T.

    The scope of the present paper is to present a framework for assessment of the probability of occurrence of ice/snow accretion on bridge cables. The framework utilizes Bayesian Probabilistic Networks and the methodology is illustrated with an example of the cable-stayed Øresund Bridge. The case...... study focuses on the ice/snow accretion due to the in-cloud icing or precipitation icing mechanisms and includes probabilistic assessments of the meteorological variables influencing the ice/snow accretion on the stay cables. Different probability distribution functions are utilized...

  4. A spongy icing model for aircraft icing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Xin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Researches have indicated that impinging droplets can be entrapped as liquid in the ice matrix and the temperature of accreting ice surface is below the freezing point. When liquid entrapment by ice matrix happens, this kind of ice is called spongy ice. A new spongy icing model for the ice accretion problem on airfoil or aircraft has been developed to account for entrapped liquid within accreted ice and to improve the determination of the surface temperature when entering clouds with supercooled droplets. Different with conventional icing model, this model identifies icing conditions in four regimes: rime, spongy without water film, spongy with water film and glaze. By using the Eulerian method based on two-phase flow theory, the impinging droplet flow was investigated numerically. The accuracy of the Eulerian method for computing the water collection efficiency was assessed, and icing shapes and surface temperature distributions predicted with this spongy icing model agree with experimental results well.

  5. Sea Ice Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

  6. Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Zunz; H. Goosse; S. Dubinkina (Svetlana)

    2015-01-01

    htmlabstractIn this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential importance

  7. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

    This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

  8. Prediction of Tonal Underwater Noise Pattern from Cavitating Propellers with Special Attention to Ice Cover Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Streckwall Heinrich

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To predict underwater noise spectra associated to regular occurrence of propeller cavitation we have extended an existing method [1] (used for the prediction of fluctuating hull pressures to become applicable for effects that are linked to a finite speed of sound. In [2] an intermediate approach was realized where (besides the hull far field boundaries were introduced but the incompressible flow assumption was kept. However compressibility effects become noticeable in the far field, which may be judged to start at some 2-3 propeller-diameters distance from the centre of the cavitation events, if we confine to emissions at 1st-4th blade frequency. It was a logical continuation of our former efforts to realize a compressible flow model and integrate the propeller as a noise source. Having increased the functionality of our approach by referencing the speed of sound, the precision of the method was also somehow reduced. In our former approach, like in comparable approaches (see for instance [3] and [4], the singularity system generating the near field propeller induced pressures involved various sources and vortices distributed on the propeller blades. With our current compressible approach this complexity was dropped, as a single point source substitutes the cavitating propeller. Such a simplification correlates with the assumption, that the monopole character of a noise source is decisive for the far field noise levels. In this contribution we outline the steps characterizing the procedure for predicting tonal underwater noise from cavitating propellers. In the first step a Vortex Lattice Method (VLM is used to access the cavitation pattern on the propeller with special focus on the cavity volume attached to one blade. The second step accumulates the distributed cavities to establish a fluctuating point source of equivalent far field noise characteristic. As relevant limits the hull, the free surface, the sea bottom and an ice cover are

  9. Mechanisms influencing seasonal to inter-annual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Jun; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Komuro, Yoshiki; Nodzu, Masato I.; Ishii, Masayoshi

    2018-02-01

    To assess the skill of seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times up to three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialised with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 11 months ahead (anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.42). This skill might be attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. A plausible mechanism is as follows: the subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to two months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian seas initialised in July, as suggested by previous studies.

  10. Polarization modeling and predictions for DKIST part 2: application of the Berreman calculus to spectral polarization fringes of beamsplitters and crystal retarders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, David M.; Snik, Frans; Keller, Christoph U.; Sueoka, Stacey R.; van Harten, Gerard

    2017-10-01

    We outline polarization fringe predictions derived from an application of the Berreman calculus for the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) retarder optics. The DKIST retarder baseline design used six crystals, single-layer antireflection coatings, thick cover windows, and oil between all optical interfaces. This tool estimates polarization fringes and optic Mueller matrices as functions of all optical design choices. The amplitude and period of polarized fringes under design changes, manufacturing errors, tolerances, and several physical factors can now be estimated. This tool compares well with observations of fringes for data collected with the spectropolarimeter for infrared and optical regions at the Dunn Solar Telescope using bicrystalline achromatic retarders as well as laboratory tests. With this tool, we show impacts of design decisions on polarization fringes as impacted by antireflection coatings, oil refractive indices, cover window presence, and part thicknesses. This tool helped DKIST decide to remove retarder cover windows and also recommends reconsideration of coating strategies for DKIST. We anticipate this tool to be essential in designing future retarders for mitigation of polarization and intensity fringe errors in other high spectral resolution astronomical systems.

  11. Serum Tau Fragments Predict Return to Play in Concussed Professional Ice Hockey Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahim, Pashtun; Linemann, Thomas; Inekci, Dilek; Karsdal, Morten Asser; Blennow, Kaj; Tegner, Yelverton; Zetterberg, Henrik; Henriksen, Kim

    2016-11-15

    The diagnosis of sports-related concussion is mainly based on subjective clinical symptoms and neuropsychological tests. Therefore, reliable brain injury biomarkers to assess when it is safe to return to play are highly desirable. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the utility of two newly described tau fragments for diagnosis and prognosis of sports-related concussions. This multi-center prospective cohort study involved all 12 teams of the top professional ice hockey league in Sweden. A total of 288 players consented to participate in the study. Thirty-five players sustained concussions, of whom 28 underwent repeated blood samplings at 1, 12, 36, and 144 h after the trauma, or when the player returned to play (7 to >90 days). There was no significant increase in the levels of Tau-A in post-concussion samples compared with preseason values. However, serum levels of Tau-C were significantly higher in post-concussion samples compared with preseason. Further, levels of Tau-A correlated with the duration of post-concussive symptoms. Tau-A in serum, which is newly discovered biomarker, could be used to predict when it is safe to return to play after a sports-related concussion.

  12. Polarized Radiative Transfer of a Cirrus Cloud Consisting of Randomly Oriented Hexagonal Ice Crystals: The 3 x 3 Approximation for Non-Spherical Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamnes, S.; Ou, S. C.; Lin, Z.; Takano, Y.; Tsay, S. C.; Liou, K.N.; Stamnes, K.

    2016-01-01

    The reflection and transmission of polarized light for a cirrus cloud consisting of randomly oriented hexagonal columns were calculated by two very different vector radiative transfer models. The forward peak of the phase function for the ensemble-averaged ice crystals has a value of order 6 x 10(exp 3) so a truncation procedure was used to help produce numerically efficient yet accurate results. One of these models, the Vectorized Line-by-Line Equivalent model (VLBLE), is based on the doubling- adding principle, while the other is based on a vector discrete ordinates method (VDISORT). A comparison shows that the two models provide very close although not entirely identical results, which can be explained by differences in treatment of single scattering and the representation of the scattering phase matrix. The relative differences in the reflected I and Q Stokes parameters are within 0.5 for I and within 1.5 for Q for all viewing angles. In 1971 Hansen showed that for scattering by spherical particles the 3 x 3 approximation is sufficient to produce accurate results for the reflected radiance I and the degree of polarization (DOP), and he conjectured that these results would hold also for non-spherical particles. Simulations were conducted to test Hansen's conjecture for the cirrus cloud particles considered in this study. It was found that the 3 x 3 approximation also gives accurate results for the transmitted light, and for Q and U in addition to I and DOP. For these non-spherical ice particles the 3 x 3 approximation leads to an absolute error 2 x 10(exp -6) for the reflected and transmitted I, Q and U Stokes parameters. Hence, it appears to be an excellent approximation, which significantly reduces the computational complexity and burden required for multiple scattering calculations.

  13. Modeling interfacial liquid layers on environmental ices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Kuo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Interfacial layers on ice significantly influence air-ice chemical interactions. In solute-containing aqueous systems, a liquid brine may form upon freezing due to the exclusion of impurities from the ice crystal lattice coupled with freezing point depression in the concentrated brine. The brine may be segregated to the air-ice interface where it creates a surface layer, in micropockets, or at grain boundaries or triple junctions.

    We present a model for brines and their associated liquid layers in environmental ice systems that is valid over a wide range of temperatures and solute concentrations. The model is derived from fundamental equlibrium thermodynamics and takes into account nonideal solution behavior in the brine, partitioning of the solute into the ice matrix, and equilibration between the brine and the gas phase for volatile solutes. We find that these phenomena are important to consider when modeling brines in environmental ices, especially at low temperatures. We demonstrate its application for environmentally important volatile and nonvolatile solutes including NaCl, HCl, and HNO3. The model is compared to existing models and experimental data from literature where available. We also identify environmentally relevant regimes where brine is not predicted to exist, but the QLL may significantly impact air-ice chemical interactions. This model can be used to improve the representation of air-ice chemical interactions in polar atmospheric chemistry models.

  14. Enantiomeric excesses induced in amino acids by ultraviolet circularly polarized light irradiation of extraterrestrial ice analogs: A possible source of asymmetry for prebiotic chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modica, Paola; De Marcellus, Pierre; D'Hendecourt, Louis Le Sergeant; Meinert, Cornelia; Meierhenrich, Uwe J.; Nahon, Laurent

    2014-01-01

    The discovery of meteoritic amino acids with enantiomeric excesses of the L-form (ee L ) has suggested that extraterrestrial organic materials may have contributed to prebiotic chemistry and directed the initial occurrence of the ee L that further led to homochirality of amino acids on Earth. A proposed mechanism for the origin of ee L in meteorites involves an asymmetric photochemistry of extraterrestrial ices by UV circularly polarized light (CPL). We have performed the asymmetric synthesis of amino acids on achiral extraterrestrial ice analogs by VUV CPL, investigating the chiral asymmetry transfer at two different evolutionary stages at which the analogs were irradiated (regular ices and/or organic residues) and at two different photon energies (6.6 and 10.2 eV). We identify 16 distinct amino acids and precisely measure the L-enantiomeric excesses using the enantioselective GC × GC-TOFMS technique in five of them: α-alanine, 2,3-diaminopropionic acid, 2-aminobutyric acid, valine, and norvaline, with values ranging from ee L = –0.20% ± 0.14% to ee L = –2.54% ± 0.28%. The sign of the induced ee L depends on the helicity and the energy of CPL, but not on the evolutionary stage of the samples, and is the same for all five considered amino acids. Our results support an astrophysical scenario in which the solar system was formed in a high-mass star-forming region where icy grains were irradiated during the protoplanetary phase by an external source of CPL of a given helicity and a dominant energy, inducing a stereo-specific photochemistry.

  15. Improvements in methods of analyzing dust concentrations, and influence of the storage processes on dust concentrations in polar snow and ice samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takayuki Miyake

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We sought to improve the analytical methods employed when operating a laser particle counter and to evaluate the influence of the storage processes on dust concentrations in polar snow and ice samples. We corrected the particle size ranges and threshold voltage using the new calibration curve, confirmed the analytical precision and dust concentrations of blank of wipers using in a clean room, and managed any variations in the laser sensor's sensitivity by measuring standard particles. The 15 ml glass screw bottles without packing (liner of cap of bottles yielded the lowest dust concentration of the blank among two types of bottles and nine types of packing for dust analysis. Storage of samples of the Dome Fuji ice core (Antarctica in a refrigerator for 1 year resulted in just a 4% decrease in dust concentration, which is within the analytical precision of the laser particle counter. Storage in a freezer resulted in an increase in dust concentrations and a decrease in the ratio of large particles more than 0.98 μm in particle diameter in the samples, suggesting a change in dust particle size during storage and an influence by the materials of the storage bottles. The addition of dispersants to the Antarctic snow samples is not clearly suitable when analyzing dust concentrations after sample storage by refrigeration or freezing.

  16. Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

    2013-09-14

    The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

  17. Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. H.

    1984-01-01

    The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

  18. Airborne Open Polar/Imaging Nephelometer for Ice Particles in Cirrus Clouds and Aerosols Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martins, JV [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The Open Imaging Nephelometer (O-I-Neph) instrument is an adaptation of a proven laboratory instrument built and tested at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), the Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph). The instrument design of both imaging nephelometers uses a narrow-beam laser source and a wide-field-of-view imaging camera to capture the entire scattering-phase function in one image, quasi-instantaneously.

  19. Dead-ice environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krüger, Johannes; Kjær, Kurt H.; Schomacker, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Kötlujökull transports considerable amounts of supraglacial debris at its snout because of frontal oscillations with frequent ice advances followed by ice-margin stagnation. Kötlujökull provides suitable conditions of studying dead-ice melting and landscape formation in a debris-charged lowland...... glacier environment. The scientific challenges are to answer the key questions. What are the conditions for dead-ice formation? From which sources does the sediment cover originate? Which melting and reworking processes act in the ice-cored moraines? What is the rate of de-icing in the ice-cored moraines...... under humid, sub-polar conditions? Does this rate differ from rates reported from polar environments of dry continental nature? How will the sedimentary architecture appear in the geological record? How will the final landsystem appear? These key questions are answered in a review of research...

  20. Solar radiation interactions with seasonal sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Jens Kristian

    Presently, the Arctic Ocean is undergoing an escalating reduction in sea ice and a transition towards a seasonal sea ice environment. This warrants detailed investigations into improving our understanding of the seasonal evolution of sea ice and snow covers, and their representation in climate models. The interaction of solar radiation with sea ice is an important process influencing the energy balance and biological activity in polar seas, and consequently plays a key role in the earth's climate system. This thesis focuses on characterization of the optical properties---and the underlying physical properties that determine them---of seasonal sea ice during the fall freeze-up and the spring melt periods. Both periods display high spatial heterogeneity and rapid temporal changes in sea ice properties, and are therefore poorly understood. Field data were collected in Amundsen Gulf/Franklin Bay (FB), southern-eastern Beaufort Sea, in Oct.-Nov. 2003 and Apr. 2004 and in Button Bay (BB), western Hudson Bay, in Mar.-May 2005 to address (1) the temporal and spatial evolution of surface albedo and transmittance, (2) how radiative transfer in sea ice is controlled by its physical nature, and (3) the characteristics of the bottom ice algae community and its effect on the optical properties. The fall study showed the importance of surface features such as dry or slushy bare ice, frost flowers and snow cover in determining the surface albedo. Ice thickness was also important, however, mostly because surface features were associated with thickness. For example, nilas (brine skim layer on the surface, while surface conditions on thicker ice types were cold and dry enough to support a snow cover. In general, the surface albedo increased exponentially with an ice thickness increase, however, variability within ice thickness types were very large. It is apparent that a more complete treatment of brine movement towards the surface ice of the ice cover and the formation of surface

  1. Breaking the polar-nonpolar division in solvation free energy prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bao; Wang, Chengzhang; Wu, Kedi; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2018-02-05

    Implicit solvent models divide solvation free energies into polar and nonpolar additive contributions, whereas polar and nonpolar interactions are inseparable and nonadditive. We present a feature functional theory (FFT) framework to break this ad hoc division. The essential ideas of FFT are as follows: (i) representability assumption: there exists a microscopic feature vector that can uniquely characterize and distinguish one molecule from another; (ii) feature-function relationship assumption: the macroscopic features, including solvation free energy, of a molecule is a functional of microscopic feature vectors; and (iii) similarity assumption: molecules with similar microscopic features have similar macroscopic properties, such as solvation free energies. Based on these assumptions, solvation free energy prediction is carried out in the following protocol. First, we construct a molecular microscopic feature vector that is efficient in characterizing the solvation process using quantum mechanics and Poisson-Boltzmann theory. Microscopic feature vectors are combined with macroscopic features, that is, physical observable, to form extended feature vectors. Additionally, we partition a solvation dataset into queries according to molecular compositions. Moreover, for each target molecule, we adopt a machine learning algorithm for its nearest neighbor search, based on the selected microscopic feature vectors. Finally, from the extended feature vectors of obtained nearest neighbors, we construct a functional of solvation free energy, which is employed to predict the solvation free energy of the target molecule. The proposed FFT model has been extensively validated via a large dataset of 668 molecules. The leave-one-out test gives an optimal root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.05 kcal/mol. FFT predictions of SAMPL0, SAMPL1, SAMPL2, SAMPL3, and SAMPL4 challenge sets deliver the RMSEs of 0.61, 1.86, 1.64, 0.86, and 1.14 kcal/mol, respectively. Using a test set of 94

  2. The General Regression Neural Network Based on the Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm and the Data Inconsistency Rate for Transmission Line Icing Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongxiao Niu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and stable prediction of icing thickness on transmission lines is of great significance for ensuring the safe operation of the power grid. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of icing prediction, an innovative prediction model based on the generalized regression neural network (GRNN and the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA is proposed. Firstly, a feature selection method based on the data inconsistency rate (IR is adopted to select the optimal feature, which aims to reduce redundant input vectors. Then, the fruit FOA is utilized for optimization of smoothing factor for the GRNN. Lastly, the icing forecasting method FOA-IR-GRNN is established. Two cases in different locations and different months are selected to validate the proposed model. The results indicate that the new hybrid FOA-IR-GRNN model presents better accuracy, robustness, and generality in icing forecasting.

  3. Preindustrial atmospheric ethane levels inferred from polar ice cores: A constraint on the geologic sources of atmospheric ethane and methane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicewonger, Melinda R.; Verhulst, Kristal R.; Aydin, Murat; Saltzman, Eric S.

    2016-01-01

    Ethane levels were measured in air extracted from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores ranging in age from 994 to 1918 Common Era (C.E.) There is good temporal overlap between the two data sets from 1600 to 1750 C.E. with ethane levels stable at 397 ± 28 parts per trillion (ppt) (±2 standard error (s.e.)) over Greenland and 103 ± 9 ppt over Antarctica. The observed north/south interpolar ratio of ethane (3.9 ± 0.1, 1σ) implies considerably more ethane emissions in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting geologic ethane sources contribute significantly to the preindustrial ethane budget. Box model simulations based on these data constrain the global geologic emissions of ethane to 2.2-3.5 Tg yr-1 and biomass burning emissions to 1.2-2.5 Tg yr-1 during the preindustrial era. The results suggest biomass burning emissions likely increased since the preindustrial period. Biomass burning and geologic outgassing are also sources of atmospheric methane. The results place constraints on preindustrial methane emissions from these sources.

  4. Acute toxicity prediction to threatened and endangered species using Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evaluating contaminant sensitivity of threatened and endangered (listed) species and protectiveness of chemical regulations often depends on toxicity data for commonly tested surrogate species. The U.S. EPA’s Internet application Web-ICE is a suite of Interspecies Correlati...

  5. Wave propagation in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with buoy and synthetic aperture radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Antony K.; Holt, Benjamin; Vachon, Paris W.

    1991-01-01

    Ocean wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover are studied for waves propagating into the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (LIMEX), conducted on the MIZ off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR imagery, ice property and wave buoy data. Wave energy attenuation rates are estimated from SAR data and the ice motion package data that were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack, and compared with a model. It is shown that the model data comparisons are quite good for the ice conditions observed during LIMEX 1987.

  6. Towards a CFD Model for Prediction of Wind Turbine Power Losses due to Icing in Cold Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Marie Cecilie; Sørensen, Henrik

    Icing induced power losses is an important issue when operating wind turbines in cold climate. This paper presents a concept of modelling ice accretion on wind turbines using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The modelling concept works towards unifying the processes of modelling ice accretion...... and the aerodynamic analysis of the iced object into one CFD-based icing model. Modelling of icing and obtaining ice shapes in combination with mesh update by surface boundary displacement was demonstrated in the paper. It has been done by expressing in-cloud icing in CFD by an Eulerian multiphase model, implementing...

  7. FISH GLYCOPEPTIDE AND PEPTIDE ANTIFREEZES : THEIR INTERACTION WITH ICE AND WATER

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, P.; Devries, A.

    1987-01-01

    Glycopeptide and peptide antifreeze agents are present in the body fluids of polar fishes and allow them to avoid freezing in ice-laden seawater. These antifreezes lower the freezing point 200 times more than predicted by colligative relations, but have little effect on the melting point of ice. They bind to ice and appear to inhibit growth by increasing the curvature of growth steps on the ice crystal surface. Such a growth would result in a substantial increase in the roughness of the surfa...

  8. Retrieval of Melt Ponds on Arctic Multiyear Sea Ice in Summer from TerraSAR-X Dual-Polarization Data Using Machine Learning Approaches: A Case Study in the Chukchi Sea with Mid-Incidence Angle Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyangsun Han

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Melt ponds, a common feature on Arctic sea ice, absorb most of the incoming solar radiation and have a large effect on the melting rate of sea ice, which significantly influences climate change. Therefore, it is very important to monitor melt ponds in order to better understand the sea ice-climate interaction. In this study, melt pond retrieval models were developed using the TerraSAR-X dual-polarization synthetic aperture radar (SAR data with mid-incidence angle obtained in a summer multiyear sea ice area in the Chukchi Sea, the Western Arctic, based on two rule-based machine learning approaches—decision trees (DT and random forest (RF—in order to derive melt pond statistics at high spatial resolution and to identify key polarimetric parameters for melt pond detection. Melt ponds, sea ice and open water were delineated from the airborne SAR images (0.3-m resolution, which were used as a reference dataset. A total of eight polarimetric parameters (HH and VV backscattering coefficients, co-polarization ratio, co-polarization phase difference, co-polarization correlation coefficient, alpha angle, entropy and anisotropy were derived from the TerraSAR-X dual-polarization data and then used as input variables for the machine learning models. The DT and RF models could not effectively discriminate melt ponds from open water when using only the polarimetric parameters. This is because melt ponds showed similar polarimetric signatures to open water. The average and standard deviation of the polarimetric parameters based on a 15 × 15 pixel window were supplemented to the input variables in order to consider the difference between the spatial texture of melt ponds and open water. Both the DT and RF models using the polarimetric parameters and their texture features produced improved performance for the retrieval of melt ponds, and RF was superior to DT. The HH backscattering coefficient was identified as the variable contributing the most, and its

  9. Predicting abundance and variability of ice nucleating particles in precipitation at the high-altitude observatory Jungfraujoch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Stopelli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Nucleation of ice affects the properties of clouds and the formation of precipitation. Quantitative data on how ice nucleating particles (INPs determine the distribution, occurrence and intensity of precipitation are still scarce. INPs active at −8 °C (INPs−8 were observed for 2 years in precipitation samples at the High-Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch (Switzerland at 3580 m a.s.l. Several environmental parameters were scanned for their capability to predict the observed abundance and variability of INPs−8. Those singularly presenting the best correlations with observed number of INPs−8 (residual fraction of water vapour, wind speed, air temperature, number of particles with diameter larger than 0.5 µm, season, and source region of particles were implemented as potential predictor variables in statistical multiple linear regression models. These models were calibrated with 84 precipitation samples collected during the first year of observations; their predictive power was successively validated on the set of 15 precipitation samples collected during the second year. The model performing best in calibration and validation explains more than 75 % of the whole variability of INPs−8 in precipitation and indicates that a high abundance of INPs−8 is to be expected whenever high wind speed coincides with air masses having experienced little or no precipitation prior to sampling. Such conditions occur during frontal passages, often accompanied by precipitation. Therefore, the circumstances when INPs−8 could be sufficiently abundant to initiate the ice phase in clouds may frequently coincide with meteorological conditions favourable to the onset of precipitation events.

  10. QSPR studies for predicting polarity parameter of organic compounds in methanol using support vector machine and enhanced replacement method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, H; Dashtbozorgi, Z

    2016-12-01

    In the present work, enhanced replacement method (ERM) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) studies of polarity parameter (p) of various organic compounds in methanol in reversed phase liquid chromatography based on molecular descriptors calculated from the optimized structures. Diverse kinds of molecular descriptors were calculated to encode the molecular structures of compounds, such as geometric, thermodynamic, electrostatic and quantum mechanical descriptors. The variable selection method of ERM was employed to select an optimum subset of descriptors. The five descriptors selected using ERM were used as inputs of SVM to predict the polarity parameter of organic compounds in methanol. The coefficient of determination, r 2 , between experimental and predicted polarity parameters for the prediction set by ERM and SVM were 0.952 and 0.982, respectively. Acceptable results specified that the ERM approach is a very effective method for variable selection and the predictive aptitude of the SVM model is superior to those obtained by ERM. The obtained results demonstrate that SVM can be used as a substitute influential modeling tool for QSPR studies.

  11. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

  12. The role of macrophages polarization in predicting prognosis of radically resected gastric cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantano, Francesco; Berti, Pierpaolo; Guida, Francesco Maria; Perrone, Giuseppe; Vincenzi, Bruno; Amato, Michelina Maria Carla; Righi, Daniela; Dell'aquila, Emanuela; Graziano, Francesco; Catalano, Vincenzo; Caricato, Marco; Rizzo, Sergio; Muda, Andrea Onetti; Russo, Antonio; Tonini, Giuseppe; Santini, Daniele

    2013-11-01

    Tumour-associated Macrophages (TAM) present two different polarizations: classical (M1) characterized by immunostimulation activity and tumour suppression; alternative (M2) characterized by tumour promotion and immune suppression. In this retrospective study, we evaluated the correlation between the two forms of TAM with survival time in radically resected gastric cancer patients. A total of 52 chemo- and radio-naive patients were included. Two slides were prepared for each patient and double-stained for CD68/NOS2 (M1) or CD68/CD163 (M2) and five representative high-power fields per slide were evaluated for TAM count. The median value of the two macrophage populations density and the median value of M1/M2 ratio were used as cut-off. Twenty-seven patients with M1 density above-the-median had a significantly higher survival compared to those below the median. Twenty-six patients with M1/M2 ratio above the median showed median OS of 27.2 months compared to 15.5 months of the patients below the median. No association between M2 macrophage density and patient's outcome was found. In multivariate analysis, M1/M2 was a positive independent predictor of survival. The M1 macrophage density and M1/M2 ratio, as confirmed in multivariate analysis, are factors that can help in predicting patients survival time after radical surgery for gastric cancer. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine.

  13. Stochastic ice stream dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantelli, Elisa; Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-08-09

    Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution.

  14. Sunlight, Sea Ice, and the Ice Albedo Feedback in a Changing Artic Sea Ice Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. SUNLIGHT, SEA ICE , AND THE ICE ALBEDO FEEDBACK IN A...iv) onset dates of melt and freeze up. 4. Assess the magnitude of the contribution from ice - albedo feedback to the observed decrease of sea ice in... sea ice prediction and modeling community to improve the treatment of solar radiation and the ice - albedo feedback. This transfer will take the form of

  15. Gypsum crystals observed in experimental and natural sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Galley, Ryan; Cooper, Marc

    2013-01-01

    of authigenic gypsum in sea ice during its formation represents a new observation of precipitate formation and potential marine deposition in polar seas. Citation: Geilfus, N.-X., R. J. Galley, M. Cooper, N. Halden, A. Hare, F. Wang, D. H. Søgaard, and S. Rysgaard (2013), Gypsum crystals observed......Although gypsum has been predicted to precipitate in sea ice, it has never been observed. Here we provide the first report on gypsum precipitation in both experimental and natural sea ice. Crystals were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis. Based on their apparent distinguishing characteristics......, the gypsum crystals were identified as being authigenic. The FREeZing CHEMistry (FREZCHEM) model results support our observations of both gypsum and ikaite precipitation at typical in situ sea ice temperatures and confirms the “Gitterman pathway” where gypsum is predicted to precipitate. The occurrence...

  16. RADARSAT-2 Polarimetric Radar Imaging for Lake Ice Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, F.; Kang, K.; Duguay, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in lake ice dates and duration are useful indicators for assessing long-term climate trends and variability in northern countries. Lake ice cover observations are also a valuable data source for predictions with numerical ice and weather forecasting models. In recent years, satellite remote sensing has assumed a greater role in providing observations of lake ice cover extent for both modeling and climate monitoring purposes. Polarimetric radar imaging has become a promising tool for lake ice mapping at high latitudes where meteorological conditions and polar darkness severely limit observations from optical sensors. In this study, we assessed and characterized the physical scattering mechanisms of lake ice from fully polarimetric RADARSAT-2 datasets obtained over Great Bear Lake, Canada, with the intent of classifying open water and different ice types during the freeze-up and break-up periods. Model-based and eigen-based decompositions were employed to construct the coherency matrix into deterministic scattering mechanisms. These procedures as well as basic polarimetric parameters were integrated into modified convolutional neural networks (CNN). The CNN were modified via introduction of a Markov random field into the higher iterative layers of networks for acquiring updated priors and classifying ice and open water areas over the lake. We show that the selected polarimetric parameters can help with interpretation of radar-ice/water interactions and can be used successfully for water-ice segmentation, including different ice types. As more satellite SAR sensors are being launched or planned, such as the Sentinel-1a/b series and the upcoming RADARSAT Constellation Mission, the rapid volume growth of data and their analysis require the development of robust automated algorithms. The approach developed in this study was therefore designed with the intent of moving towards fully automated mapping of lake ice for consideration by ice services.

  17. Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform

  18. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...... significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p bear......-2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call...

  19. Wave evolution in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with on-site and remote data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, A. K.; Holt, B.; Vachon, P. W.

    1989-01-01

    The ocean-wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover were studied for waves in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (Limex), conducted off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR, wave buoy, and ice property data. Based on the wave number spectrum from SAR data, the concurrent wave frequency spectrum from ocean buoy data, and accelerometer data on the ice during Limex '87, the dispersion relation has been derived and compared with the model. Accelerometers were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack. Data from the accelerometers were used to estimate wave energy attenuation rates and compared with the model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions observed during Limex' 87.

  20. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  1. Polar bear maternity denning in the Beaufort Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Gardner, Craig L.

    1994-01-01

    The distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) is circumpolar in the NOrthern Hemisphere, but known locations of maternal dens are concentrated in relatively few, widely scattered locations. Denning is either uncommon or unknown within gaps. To understand effects of industrial development and propose increases in hunting, the temporal and spatial distribution of denning in the Beaufort Sea must be known. We caputred and radiocollared polar bears between 1981 and 1991 and determined tht denning in the Beaufort Sea region was sufficient to account for the estimated population there. Of 90 dend, 48 were on drifting pack ice, 38 on land, and 4 on land-fast ice. The portions of dens on land was higher (P= 0.029) in later compared with earlier years of the study. Bears denning on pack ice drifting as far as 997 km (x=385km) while in dens. there was no difference in cun production by bears denning on land and pack ice (P =0.66). Mean entry and exit dates were 11 November and 5 April for land dens and 22 November and 26 March for pack-ice dens. Female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea appeared to be isolated from those caught eat of Cape Bathurst in Canada. Of 35 polar bears that denned along the mainland coast of Alaska and Canada 80% denned between 137 00'W snf 146 59'W. Bears followed to >1 den did not reuse sites and consecutive dens were 20-1,304 km apart. However radio-collared bears are largely faithful to substrate (pack-ice, land, and land-fast ice) and the general geographic area of previous dens. Bears denning on land may be vunerable to human activities such as hunting and industrial development. However, predictable denning chronology and alck of site fidelity indicate that many potential impacts on denning polar bears could be mitigated.

  2. Preparing for Operational Use of High Priority Products from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) in Numerical Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandi, S.; Layns, A. L.; Goldberg, M.; Gambacorta, A.; Ling, Y.; Collard, A.; Grumbine, R. W.; Sapper, J.; Ignatov, A.; Yoe, J. G.

    2017-12-01

    This work describes end to end operational implementation of high priority products from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) operational polar-orbiting satellite constellation, to include Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and the Joint Polar Satellite System series initial satellite (JPSS-1), into numerical weather prediction and earth systems models. Development and evaluation needed for the initial implementations of VIIRS Environmental Data Records (EDR) for Sea Surface Temperature ingestion in the Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (RTG) and Polar Winds assimilated in the National Weather Service (NWS) Global Forecast System (GFS) is presented. These implementations ensure continuity of data in these models in the event of loss of legacy sensor data. Also discussed is accelerated operational implementation of Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Temperature Data Records (TDR) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Sensor Data Records, identified as Key Performance Parameters by the National Weather Service. Operational use of SNPP after 28 October, 2011 launch took more than one year due to the learning curve and development needed for full exploitation of new remote sensing capabilities. Today, ATMS and CrIS data positively impact weather forecast accuracy. For NOAA's JPSS initial satellite (JPSS-1), scheduled for launch in late 2017, we identify scope and timelines for pre-launch and post-launch activities needed to efficiently transition these capabilities into operations. As part of these alignment efforts, operational readiness for KPPs will be possible as soon as 90 days after launch. The schedule acceleration is possible because of the experience with S-NPP. NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellite constellation provides continuity and enhancement of earth systems observations out to 2036. Program best practices and lessons learned will inform future implementation for follow-on JPSS-3 and -4

  3. Seeing Red: Anger Increases How Much Republican Identification Predicts Partisan Attitudes and Perceived Polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Michaela; Van Boven, Leaf; Park, Bernadette; Pizzi, William T.

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of incidental anger on perceived and actual polarization between Democrats and Republicans in the context of two national tragedies, Hurricane Katrina (Study 1) and the mass shooting that targeted Representative Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona (Study 2). We hypothesized that because of its relevance to intergroup conflict, incidental anger exacerbates the political polarization effects of issue partisanship (the correlation between partisan identification and partisan attitudes), and, separately, the correlation between conservative partisan identification and perceived polarization between Democrats and Republicans. We further hypothesized that these effects would be strongest for Republican identification because Republican leaders were targets of public criticism in both tragedies and because conservative (Republican) ideology tends to be more sensitive to threat. In the studies, participants first completed an emotion induction procedure by recalling autobiographical events that made them angry (Studies 1 & 2), sad (Studies 1 & 2), or that involved recalling emotionally neutral events (Study 2). Participants later reported their attitudes regarding the two tragedies, their perceptions of the typical Democrat’s and Republican’s attitudes on those issues, and their identification with the Democratic and Republican parties. Compared with incidental sadness (Studies 1 and 2) and a neutral condition (Study 2), incidental anger exacerbated the associations between Republican identification and partisan attitudes, and, separately between Republican identification and perceived polarization between the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans. We discuss implications for anger’s influence on political attitude formation and perceptions of group differences in political attitudes. PMID:26407321

  4. Seeing Red: Anger Increases How Much Republican Identification Predicts Partisan Attitudes and Perceived Polarization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, Michaela; Van Boven, Leaf; Park, Bernadette; Pizzi, William T

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of incidental anger on perceived and actual polarization between Democrats and Republicans in the context of two national tragedies, Hurricane Katrina (Study 1) and the mass shooting that targeted Representative Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona (Study 2). We hypothesized that because of its relevance to intergroup conflict, incidental anger exacerbates the political polarization effects of issue partisanship (the correlation between partisan identification and partisan attitudes), and, separately, the correlation between conservative partisan identification and perceived polarization between Democrats and Republicans. We further hypothesized that these effects would be strongest for Republican identification because Republican leaders were targets of public criticism in both tragedies and because conservative (Republican) ideology tends to be more sensitive to threat. In the studies, participants first completed an emotion induction procedure by recalling autobiographical events that made them angry (Studies 1 & 2), sad (Studies 1 & 2), or that involved recalling emotionally neutral events (Study 2). Participants later reported their attitudes regarding the two tragedies, their perceptions of the typical Democrat's and Republican's attitudes on those issues, and their identification with the Democratic and Republican parties. Compared with incidental sadness (Studies 1 and 2) and a neutral condition (Study 2), incidental anger exacerbated the associations between Republican identification and partisan attitudes, and, separately between Republican identification and perceived polarization between the attitudes of Democrats and Republicans. We discuss implications for anger's influence on political attitude formation and perceptions of group differences in political attitudes.

  5. Temporal trends and future predictions of mercury concentrations in Northwest Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, R; Born, E W; Rigét, F; Aubail, A; Sonne, C; Drimmie, R; Basu, N

    2011-02-15

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

  6. AMSR-E/Aqua Daily L3 12.5 km Tb, Sea Ice Conc., & Snow Depth Polar Grids V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The AMSR-E/Aqua Level 3 12.5 km daily sea ice product includes 18.7 - 89.0 GHz TBs, sea ice concentration averages (asc & desc), and 5-day snow depth over sea...

  7. Polar Science Is Cool!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    Children are fascinated by the fact that polar scientists do research in extremely cold and dangerous places. In the Arctic they might be viewed as lunch by a polar bear. In the Antarctic, they could lose toes and fingers to frostbite and the wind is so fast it can rip skin off. They camp on ice in continuous daylight, weeks from any form of…

  8. Comparison of Ice-Bank Actual Results Against Simulated Predicted Results in Carroll Refurbishment Project DKIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edel Donnelly

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the selection methods used in the design of an ice-bank thermal energy storage (TES application in the Carroll’s building in Dundalk IT. The complexities of the interaction between the on- site wind turbine, existing campus load and the refurbished building meant that traditional calculation methods and programmes could not be used and specialist software had to be developed during the design process. The research reviews this tool against the actual results obtained from the operation in the building for one college term of full time use. The paper also examines the operation of the system in order to produce recommendations for its potential modification to improve its efficiency and utilisation. Simulation software is evaluated and maximum import capacity is minimised. Significant budget constraints limited the level of control and metering that could be provided for the project, and this paper demonstrates some investigative processes that were used to overcome the limitations on data availability.

  9. Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherry, Seth G; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Lunn, Nicholas J

    2013-07-01

    Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  10. Mars seasonal CO2 ice lifetimes and the angular dependence of albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Bernhard Lee

    1992-01-01

    The albedo of the polar caps on Mars brightens appreciably at high solar zenith angle (Warren et al., J. Geophys. Res., 95, 14717, 1990), an effect not included in prior polar-cap energy-balance models. This decreases absorption of sunlight by the polar cap, hence decreasing sublimation of CO2 ice. Lindner (J. Geophys. Res., 95, 1367, 1990) has shown that the radiative effects of clouds and airborne dust will increase sublimation of CO2 ice over that predicted by prior polar-cap energy-balance models. Furthermore, observations hint that more clouds may exist in the Northern Hemisphere, which Lindner (1990) has shown would sublime CO2 ice more quickly in the north than in the south. I show here that the effects of the solar zenith angle dependence of albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust offset each other, but act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the observed hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar-cap albedo required by prior models. Another positive aspect of this solution is that neither the inclusion of the solar zenith angle dependence of albedo nor the radiative effects of clouds and dust should appreciably change prior model agreement with observations of the annual cycle of surface pressure and the recession of the polar caps equatorward of 75 degrees latitude.

  11. The Timing of Arctic Sea Ice Advance and Retreat as an Indicator of Ice-Dependent Marine Mammal Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, H. L.; Laidre, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    days/decade, with steeper trends in the Barents Sea. Thus the season of sparse sea-ice coverage is lengthening by about 2 weeks/decade, or 6 weeks over the period of record. The trends in all 11 regions are statistically significant. The dates of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall are negatively correlated: an early spring retreat tends to be followed by a late fall advance, and vice-versa. This is a manifestation of the ice-albedo feedback: with an early sea-ice retreat, the ocean has more time to absorb heat from the sun. The extra heat is stored in the upper ocean through the summer, and must be released to the atmosphere in the fall before sea ice can begin to form, thus delaying fall freeze-up. This relationship gives some predictive power to the date of fall sea-ice advance, given the date of spring retreat. Changes have been reported in the seasonal distribution of polar bears, walruses, seals, and whales in the Arctic. We are developing metrics for potential use by the U.S. National Climate Assessment based on the timing of sea-ice advance and retreat, to be used as indicators of ice-dependent marine mammal habitat. Future work will examine connections between the phenology of Arctic marine mammals and the sea-ice indicators.

  12. Ice Cover Prediction of a Power Grid Transmission Line Based on Two-Stage Data Processing and Adaptive Support Vector Machine Optimized by Genetic Tabu Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaomin Xu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available With the increase in energy demand, extreme climates have gained increasing attention. Ice disasters on transmission lines can cause gap discharge and icing flashover electrical failures, which can lead to mechanical failure of the tower, conductor, and insulators, causing significant harm to people’s daily life and work. To address this challenge, an intelligent combinational model is proposed based on improved empirical mode decomposition and support vector machine for short-term forecasting of ice cover thickness. Firstly, in light of the characteristics of ice cover thickness data, fast independent component analysis (FICA is implemented to smooth the abnormal situation on the curve trend of the original data for prediction. Secondly, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD decomposes data after denoising it into different components from high frequency to low frequency, and support vector machine (SVM is introduced to predict the sequence of different components. Then, some modifications are performed on the standard SVM algorithm to accelerate the convergence speed. Combined with the advantages of genetic algorithm and tabu search, the combination algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of support vector machine. To improve the prediction accuracy, the kernel function of the support vector machine is adaptively adopted according to the complexity of different sequences. Finally, prediction results for each component series are added to obtain the overall ice cover thickness. A 220 kV DC transmission line in the Hunan Region is taken as the case study to verify the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. Meanwhile, we select SVM optimized by genetic algorithm (GA-SVM and traditional SVM algorithm for comparison, and use the error function of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, root mean square error (RMSE and mean absolute error (MAE to compare prediction accuracy. Finally, we find that these improvements

  13. Dead-ice environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krüger, Johannes; Kjær, Kurt H.; Schomacker, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Kötlujökull transports considerable amounts of supraglacial debris at its snout because of frontal oscillations with frequent ice advances followed by ice-margin stagnation. Kötlujökull provides suitable conditions of studying dead-ice melting and landscape formation in a debris-charged lowland...... under humid, sub-polar conditions? Does this rate differ from rates reported from polar environments of dry continental nature? How will the sedimentary architecture appear in the geological record? How will the final landsystem appear? These key questions are answered in a review of research...... and conclusions on dead-ice melting and landscape formation from Kötlujökull. Processes and landform-sediment associations are linked to the current climate and glacier–volcano interaction....

  14. Ice Caps and Ice Belts: The Effects of Obliquity on Ice-Albedo Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Brian E. J.; Cronin, Timothy W.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

    2017-09-01

    Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice-albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity is given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the “deep-water” regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a “Large Ice-Belt Instability” and “Small Ice-Belt Instability” at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps.

  15. Polar low monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobylev, Leonid; Zabolotskikh, Elizaveta; Mitnik, Leonid

    2010-05-01

    Polar lows are intense mesoscale atmospheric low pressure weather systems, developing poleward of the main baroclinic zone and associated with high surface wind speeds. Small size and short lifetime, sparse in-situ observations in the regions of their development complicate polar low study. Our knowledge of polar lows and mesocyclones has come almost entirely during the period of satellite remote sensing since, by virtue of their small horizontal scale, it was rarely possible to analyse these lows on conventional weather charts using only the data from the synoptic observing network. However, the effects of intense polar lows have been felt by coastal communities and seafarers since the earliest times. These weather systems are thought to be responsible for the loss of many small vessels over the centuries, although the nature of the storms was not understood and their arrival could not be predicted. The actuality of the polar low research is stipulated by their high destructive power: they are a threat to such businesses as oil and gas exploration, fisheries and shipping. They could worsen because of global warming: a shrinking of sea ice around the North Pole, which thawed to its record minimum in the summer of 2007, is likely to give rise to more powerful storms that form only over open water and can cause hurricane-strength winds. Therefore, study of polar lows, their timely detection, tracking and forecasting represents a challenge for today meteorology. Satellite passive microwave data, starting from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite, remain invaluable source of regularly available remotely sensed data to study polar lows. The sounding in this spectral range has several advantages in comparison with observations in visible and infrared ranges and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data: independence on day time and clouds, regularity and high temporal resolution in Polar Regions. Satellite

  16. Images of Antarctic Ice Shelves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Recent changes in the extent and stability of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula prompted NSIDC to begin a monitoring program using data from the AVHRR Polar 1...

  17. Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived from Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borowski, Stanley K.; Ryan, Stephen W.; Burke, Laura M.; McCurdy, David R.; Fittje, James E.; Joyner, Claude R.

    2017-01-01

    The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (Isp 900 s) twice that of todays best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx.16.5 klbf "Small Nuclear Rocket Engines (SNREs)", an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong "tourism" missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The processing of LPI deposits (estimated to be approx. 2 billion metric tons) for propellant production - specifically liquid oxygen (LO2) and hydrogen (LH2) can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth and can enable reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using LO2/LH2 chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, LO2/LH2 propellant depots can be established in lunar polar and equatorial orbits to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LO2-augmented NTR, or LANTR would be introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants (LDPs) for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes

  18. Reconstructing the atmospheric concentration and emissions of CF4, C2F6 and C3F8 prior to direct atmospheric measurements, using air from polar firn and ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trudinger, Cathy; Etheridge, David; Sturges, William; Vollmer, Martin; Miller, Benjamin; Worton, David; Rigby, Matt; Krummel, Paul; Martinerie, Patricia; Witrant, Emmanuel; Rayner, Peter; Battle, Mark; Blunier, Thomas; Fraser, Paul; Laube, Johannes; Mani, Frances; Mühle, Jens; O'Doherty, Simon; Schwander, Jakob; Steele, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Perfluorocarbons are very potent and long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, released predominantly during aluminium production, electronic chip manufacture and refrigeration. Mühle et al. (2010) presented records of the concentration and inferred emissions of CF4 (PFC-14), C2F6 (PFC-116) and C3F8 (PFC-218) from the 1970s up to 2008, using measurements from the Cape Grim Air Archive and a suite of tanks with old Northern Hemisphere air, and the AGAGE in situ network. Mühle et al. (2010) also estimated pre-industrial concentrations of these compounds from a small number of polar firn and ice core samples. Here we present measurements of air from polar firn at four sites (DSSW20K, EDML, NEEM and South Pole) and from air bubbles trapped in ice at two sites (DE08 and DE08-2), along with recent atmospheric measurements to give a continuous record of concentration from preindustrial levels up to the present. We estimate global emissions (with uncertainties) consistent with the concentration records. The uncertainty analysis takes into account uncertainties in characterisation of the age of air in firn and ice by the use of two different (independently-calibrated) firn models (the CSIRO and LGGE-GIPSA firn models). References Mühle, J., A.L. Ganesan, B.R. Miller, P.K. Salameh, C.M. Harth, B.R. Greally, M. Rigby, L.W. Porter, L. P. Steele, C.M. Trudinger, P.B. Krummel, S. O'Doherty, P.J. Fraser, P.G. Simmonds, R.G. Prinn, and R.F. Weiss, Perfluorocarbons in the global atmosphere: tetrafluoromethane, hexafluoroethane, and octafluoropropane, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 5145-5164, doi:10.5194/acp-10-5145-2010, 2010.

  19. Predicting responses of the Adélie penguin population of Edmonson Point to future sea ice changes in the Ross Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tosca eBallerini

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs predict changes in the sea ice environment and in atmospheric precipitations over larger areas of Antarctica. These changes are expected to affect the population dynamics of seabirds and marine mammals, but the extent of this influence is not clear. We investigated the future population trajectories of the colony of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point, in the Ross Sea, from 2010 to 2100. To do so, we incorporated the relationship between sea ice and demographic parameters of the studied colony into a matrix population model. Specifically, we used sea ice projections from AOGCMs and a proxy for snowfall precipitation. Simulations of population persistence under future climate change scenarios showed that a reduction in sea ice extent and an increase in precipitation events during the breeding season will drive the population to extinction. However, the population growth rate estimated by the model was lower than the population growth rate observed during the last decades, suggesting that recruits from other colonies maintain the observed population dynamics at Edmonson Point. This local ‘rescue’ effect is consistent with a metapopulation dynamic for Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, in which neighboring colonies might exhibit contrasting population trends and different density-dependent effects. In the hypothesis that connectivity with larger source colonies or that local recruitment would decrease, the sink colony at Edmonson Point is predicted to disappear.

  20. Exploration of NVE classical trajectories as a tool for molecular crystal structure prediction, with tests on ice polymorphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buch, V.; Martoňák, R.; Parrinello, M.

    2006-05-01

    Following an initial Communication [Buch et al., J. Chem. Phys. 123, 051108 (2005)], a new molecular-dynamics-based approach is explored to search for candidate crystal structures of molecular solids corresponding to minima of the enthalpy. The approach is based on the observation of phase transitions in an artificial periodic system with a small unit cell and relies on the existence of an optimal energy range for observing freezing to low-lying minima in the course of classical trajectories. Tests are carried out for O structures of nine H2O-ice polymorphs. NVE trajectories for a range of preimposed box shapes display freezing to the different crystal polymorphs whenever the box dimensions approximate roughly the appropriate unit cell; the exception is ice II for which freezing requires unit cell dimensions close to the correct ones. In an alternate version of the algorithm, an initial box shape is picked at random and subsequently readjusted at short trajectory intervals by enthalpy minimization. Tests reveal the existence of ice forms which are "difficult" and "easy" to locate in this way. The former include ice IV, which is also difficult to crystallize experimentally from the liquid, and ice II, which does not interface with the liquid in the phase diagram. On the other hand, the latter crystal search procedure located successfully the remaining seven ice polymorphs, including ice V, which corresponds to the most complicated structure of all ice phases, with a monoclinic cell of 28molecules.

  1. Ice Sheets & Ice Cores

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Troels Bøgeholm

    Since the discovery of the Ice Ages it has been evident that Earth’s climate is liable to undergo dramatic changes. The previous climatic period known as the Last Glacial saw large oscillations in the extent of ice sheets covering the Northern hemisphere. Understanding these oscillations known...

  2. Comparison of full field and anomaly initialisation for decadal climate prediction: towards an optimal consistency between the ocean and sea-ice anomaly initialisation state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

    2017-08-01

    Decadal prediction exploits sources of predictability from both the internal variability through the initialisation of the climate model from observational estimates, and the external radiative forcings. When a model is initialised with the observed state at the initial time step (Full Field Initialisation—FFI), the forecast run drifts towards the biased model climate. Distinguishing between the climate signal to be predicted and the model drift is a challenging task, because the application of a-posteriori bias correction has the risk of removing part of the variability signal. The anomaly initialisation (AI) technique aims at addressing the drift issue by answering the following question: if the model is allowed to start close to its own attractor (i.e. its biased world), but the phase of the simulated variability is constrained toward the contemporaneous observed one at the initialisation time, does the prediction skill improve? The relative merits of the FFI and AI techniques applied respectively to the ocean component and the ocean and sea ice components simultaneously in the EC-Earth global coupled model are assessed. For both strategies the initialised hindcasts show better skill than historical simulations for the ocean heat content and AMOC along the first two forecast years, for sea ice and PDO along the first forecast year, while for AMO the improvements are statistically significant for the first two forecast years. The AI in the ocean and sea ice components significantly improves the skill of the Arctic sea surface temperature over the FFI.

  3. Modelling the viscoplastic behavior and the heterogeneous intracrystalline deformation of columnar ice polycrystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebensohn, Ricardo A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Montagnat, Maurine [LGGE (FRANCE); Mansuy, Philippe [MICHELIN (FRANCE); Duval, Paul [LGGE (FRANCE); Philip, A [LGGE (FRANCE)

    2008-01-01

    A full-field formulation based on Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) has been adapted and used to predict the micromechanical fields that develop in columnar Ih ice polycrystals deforming in compression by dislocation creep. The predicted intragranular mechanical fields are in qualitative good agreement with experimental observations, in particular those involving the formation of shear and kink bands. These localization bands are associated with the large internal stresses that develop during creep in such anisotropic material, and their location, intensity, morphology and extension are found to depend strongly on the crystallographic orientation of the grains and on their interaction with neighbor crystals. The predictions of the model are also discussed in relation with the deformation of columnar sea and lake ice, and with the mechanical behavior of granular ice of glaciers and polar ice sheets, as well.

  4. Study of mixed phase clouds over west Africa: Ice-crystal corner reflection effects observed with a two-wavelength polarization lidar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veselovskii Igor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Lidar sounding is used for the analysis of possible contribution of the corner reflection (CR effect to the total backscattering in case of ice crystals. Our study is based on observations of mixed phase clouds performed during the SHADOW campaign in Senegal. Mie-Raman lidar allows measurements at 355 nm and 532 nm at 43 dg. off-zenith angle, so the extinction and backscattering Ångström exponents can be evaluated. In some measurements we observed the positive values of backscattering Ångström exponent, which can be attributed to the corner reflection by horizontally oriented ice plates.

  5. Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the sub-polar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sicre, M.-A.; Khodri, M.; Mignot, J.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we use IP25 and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short-and long......-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling...

  6. Diurnal Variation of Tropical Ice Cloud Microphysics: Evidence from Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager Polarimetric Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Jie; Zeng, Xiping; Wu, Dong L.; Li, Xiaowen

    2018-01-01

    The diurnal variation of tropical ice clouds has been well observed and examined in terms of the occurring frequency and total mass but rarely from the viewpoint of ice microphysical parameters. It accounts for a large portion of uncertainties in evaluating ice clouds' role on global radiation and hydrological budgets. Owing to the advantage of precession orbit design and paired polarized observations at a high-frequency microwave band that is particularly sensitive to ice particle microphysical properties, 3 years of polarimetric difference (PD) measurements using the 166 GHz channel of Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI) are compiled to reveal a strong diurnal cycle over tropical land (30°S-30°N) with peak amplitude varying up to 38%. Since the PD signal is dominantly determined by ice crystal size, shape, and orientation, the diurnal cycle observed by GMI can be used to infer changes in ice crystal properties. Moreover, PD change is found to lead the diurnal changes of ice cloud occurring frequency and total ice mass by about 2 h, which strongly implies that understanding ice microphysics is critical to predict, infer, and model ice cloud evolution and precipitation processes.

  7. Momentum Exchange Near Ice Keels in the Under Ice Ocean Boundary Layer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bleidorn, John C

    2008-01-01

    .... Understanding ice-ocean momentum exchange is important for accurate predictive ice modeling. Due to climate change, increased naval presence in the Arctic region is anticipated and ice models will become necessary for tactical and safety reasons...

  8. Polar bears, Ursus maritimus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Stirling, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Polar bears are the largest of the eight species of bears found worldwide and are covered in a pigment-free fur giving them the appearance of being white. They are the most carnivorous of bear species consuming a high-fat diet, primarily of ice-associated seals and other marine mammals. They range throughout the circumpolar Arctic to the southernmost extent of seasonal pack ice.

  9. Modelling and prediction of crop losses from NOAA polar-orbiting operational satellites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Kogan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Weather-related crop losses have always been a concern for farmers, governments, traders, and policy-makers for the purpose of balanced food supply/demands, trade, and distribution of aid to the nations in need. Among weather disasters, drought plays a major role in large-scale crop losses. This paper discusses utility of operational satellite-based vegetation health (VH indices for modelling cereal yield and for early warning of drought-related crop losses. The indices were tested in Saratov oblast (SO, one of the principal grain growing regions of Russia. Correlation and regression analysis were applied to model cereal yield from VH indices during 1982–2001. A strong correlation between mean SO's cereal yield and VH indices were found during the critical period of cereals, which starts two–three weeks before and ends two–three weeks after the heading stage. Several models were constructed where VH indices served as independent variables (predictors. The models were validated independently based on SO cereal yield during 1982–2012. Drought-related cereal yield losses can be predicted three months in advance of harvest and six–eight months in advance of official grain production statistic is released. The error of production losses prediction is 7%–10%. The error of prediction drops to 3%–5% in the years of intensive droughts.

  10. The wet solidus of silica: Predictions from the scaled particle theory and polarized continuum model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ottonello, G., E-mail: giotto@dipteris.unige.it; Vetuschi Zuccolini, M. [DIPTERIS, Università di Genova, Corso Europa 26, 16132 Genoa (Italy); Richet, P. [Institut de Physique du Globe, Rue Jussieu 2, 75005 Paris (France)

    2015-02-07

    We present an application of the Scaling Particle Theory (SPT) coupled with an ab initio assessment of the electronic, dispersive, and repulsive energy terms based on the Polarized Continuum Model (PCM) aimed at reproducing the observed solubility behavior of OH{sub 2} over the entire compositional range from pure molten silica to pure water and wide pressure and temperature regimes. It is shown that the solution energy is dominated by cavitation terms, mainly entropic in nature, which cause a large negative solution entropy and a consequent marked increase of gas phase fugacity with increasing temperatures. Besides, the solution enthalpy is negative and dominated by electrostatic terms which depict a pseudopotential well whose minimum occurs at a low water fraction (X{sub H{sub 2O}}) of about 6 mol. %. The fine tuning of the solute-solvent interaction is achieved through very limited adjustments of the electrostatic scaling factor γ{sub el} which, in pure water, is slightly higher than the nominal value (i.e., γ{sub el}  =  1.224 against 1.2), it attains its minimum at low H{sub 2}O content (γ{sub el} = 0.9958) and then rises again at infinite dilution (γ{sub el}   =  1.0945). The complex solution behavior is interpreted as due to the formation of energetically efficient hydrogen bonding when OH functionals are in appropriate amount and relative positioning with respect to the discrete OH{sub 2} molecules, reinforcing in this way the nominal solute-solvent inductive interaction. The interaction energy derived from the SPT-PCM calculations is then recast in terms of a sub-regular Redlich-Kister expansion of appropriate order whereas the thermodynamic properties of the H{sub 2}O component at its standard state (1-molal solution referred to infinite dilution) are calculated from partial differentiation of the solution energy over the intensive variables.

  11. Boundary layer physics over snow and ice

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, P. S.; Neff, W. D.

    2008-01-01

    Observations of the unique chemical environment over snow and ice in recent decades, particularly in the polar regions, have stimulated increasing interest in the boundary layer processes that mediate exchanges between the ice/snow interface and the atmosphere. This paper provides a review of the underlying concepts and examples from recent field studies in polar boundary layer meteorology, which will generally apply to atmospheric flow over snow and ice surfaces. It forms a companion paper t...

  12. Modelling of electrochemical reactors with bio polar electrodes. Prediction of the current distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HenquIn, E. R; Bisang, J. M

    2005-01-01

    A simplified mathematical model to calculate the current distributions in bipolar electrochemical reactors is proposed.The current distributions are deduced from a combination of the voltage balance in the reactor with a voltage balance including the electrolyte inlet and outlet.Thus, equations to predict the effect of geometric and operational variables on the current distributions at the electrodes are reported.The parameters acting upon the current distributions were lumped into two dimensionless variables and their effects on the current distributions are discussed.The primary current distributions are obtained as a limiting case.Comparisons between calculated and experimental primary current distributions are reported

  13. Investigating the Sensitivity of Nucleation Parameterization on Ice Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudet, L.; Sulia, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    The accurate prediction of precipitation from lake-effect snow events associated with the Great Lakes region depends on the parameterization of thermodynamic and microphysical processes, including the formation and subsequent growth of frozen hydrometeors. More specifically, the formation of ice hydrometeors has been represented through varying forms of ice nucleation parameterizations considering the different nucleation modes (e.g., deposition, condensation-freezing, homogeneous). These parameterizations have been developed from in-situ measurements and laboratory observations. A suite of nucleation parameterizations consisting of those published in Meyers et al. (1992) and DeMott et al. (2010) as well as varying ice nuclei data sources are coupled with the Adaptive Habit Model (AHM, Harrington et al. 2013), a microphysics module where ice crystal aspect ratio and density are predicted and evolve in time. Simulations are run with the AHM which is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the effect of ice nucleation parameterization on the non-spherical growth and evolution of ice crystals and the subsequent effects on liquid-ice cloud-phase partitioning. Specific lake-effect storms that were observed during the Ontario Winter Lake-Effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign (Kristovich et al. 2017) are examined to elucidate this potential microphysical effect. Analysis of these modeled events is aided by dual-polarization radar data from the WSR-88D in Montague, New York (KTYX). This enables a comparison of the modeled and observed polarmetric and microphysical profiles of the lake-effect clouds, which involves investigating signatures of reflectivity, specific differential phase, correlation coefficient, and differential reflectivity. Microphysical features of lake-effect bands, such as ice, snow, and liquid mixing ratios, ice crystal aspect ratio, and ice density are analyzed to understand signatures in the aforementioned modeled

  14. High resolution modelling of the decreasing Arctic sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, K. S.; Rasmussen, T. A. S.; Blüthgen, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly decreasing and thinning over the last decade, with minimum ice extent in 2007 and almost as low extent in 2011. This study investigates two aspects of the decreasing ice cover; first the large scale thinning and changing dynamics of the polar sea ice, and...

  15. Why is there evidence for flowing ice at mid-latitudes on Mars but not at the poles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, I. B.

    2017-12-01

    Ice has been detected on Mars in many places, from the polar caps, to mid-latitudes. In many locations there exists evidence for glacial flow. This raises the possibility of flow for the polar layered deposits (PLD). Since the >2000 m thick ice deposits were first observed, speculation about their flow status have persisted. Several stratigraphic predictions regarding flow have been made (Figure 1), but these predictions are not supported with observational data (Smith and Holt 2015) The disagreement between model and observations has led to a general consensus that the polar ice flows more slowly than other processes acting on the PLD, but the reasoning is not understood. Here I posit that the polar layered deposits do not act as a single, generic ice sheet. Instead, they act as a stack of thin ice sheets, where each layer is separated by a boundary of dust, and all layers flow individually. The layers act as barriers to vertical flow, so the viscosity of the cold ice can only be expressed through lateral expansion. I plan to present a simple experiment demonstrating the multi-layer, stacked flow hypothesis. I will demonstrate that the layers themselves flow but do not deform the entire ice sheet, as previously predicted. This allows for the PLD to retain their steep slopes and prevents many of the predicted flow features to form. The major component of this hypothesis is that the dust layers hinder flow. Thus, constraining the friction coefficient, viscosity, tensile strength and compressibility of the dust layers becomes an important next step for testing the stacked, multi-layer flow scenario. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Eric Larour and David Goldsby for helpful comments.

  16. Polar bears: the fate of an icon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Kevin T

    2013-11-01

    the bears are so vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Polar bears have few alternatives if their habitat (the sea ice) and their access to their ringed seal prey rapidly disappear. Predictions that polar bears may be able to adjust and sustain themselves on alternative food sources are not based on reality. Spring breakup of the sea ice is happening much earlier as well as fall freezeup is getting later, thereby prolonging the open water period that the bears are shore bound. If trends continue and the ice continues to disappear, the effect on polar bears would be devastating. Veterinarians must stay involved in polar bear studies and in multidisciplinary conservation studies dealing with threatened and endangered species worldwide. On account of their training, veterinarians can offer a unique skill set that can provide access to a number of technologies critical to conservation efforts. The oath veterinarians take on graduation from veterinary school charges them to be sworn to the "conservation of animal resources" and in the education of the public. We are only as good as the oaths we keep. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Quantitative relation between PMSE and ice mass density

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirkwood, S.; Belova, E. [Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Kiruna (Sweden); Hervig, M. [GATS Inc., Driggs, ID (United States); Osepian, A. [Polar Geophysical Institute, Murmansk (Russian Federation)

    2010-07-01

    Radar reflectivities associated with Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) are compared with measurements of ice mass density in the mesopause region. The 54.5MHz radar Moveable Atmospheric Radar for Antarctica (MARA), located at theWasa/Aboa station in Antarctica (73 S, 13 W) provided PMSE measurements in December 2007 and January 2008. Ice mass density was measured by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE). The radar operated continuously during this period but only measurements close to local midnight are used for comparison, to coincide with the local time of the measurements of ice mass density. The radar location is at high geographic latitude but low geomagnetic latitude (61 ) and the measurements were made during a period of very low solar activity. As a result, background electron densities can be modelled based on solar illumination alone. We find a close correlation between the time and height variations of radar reflectivity and ice mass density, at all PMSE heights, from 80 km up to 95 km. A quantitative expression relating radar reflectivities to ice mass density is found, including an empirical dependence on background electron density. Using this relation, we can use PMSE reflectivities as a proxy for ice mass density, and estimate the daily variation of ice mass density from the daily variation of PMSE reflectivities. According to this proxy, ice mass density is maximum around 05:00-07:00 LT, with lower values around local noon, in the afternoon and in the evening. This is consistent with the small number of previously published measurements and model predictions of the daily variation of noctilucent (mesospheric) clouds and in contrast to the daily variation of PMSE, which has a broad daytime maximum, extending from 05:00 LT to 15:00 LT, and an evening-midnight minimum. (orig.)

  18. Quantitative relation between PMSE and ice mass density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kirkwood

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Radar reflectivities associated with Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE are compared with measurements of ice mass density in the mesopause region. The 54.5 MHz radar Moveable Atmospheric Radar for Antarctica (MARA, located at the Wasa/Aboa station in Antarctica (73° S, 13° W provided PMSE measurements in December 2007 and January 2008. Ice mass density was measured by the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE. The radar operated continuously during this period but only measurements close to local midnight are used for comparison, to coincide with the local time of the measurements of ice mass density. The radar location is at high geographic latitude but low geomagnetic latitude (61° and the measurements were made during a period of very low solar activity. As a result, background electron densities can be modelled based on solar illumination alone. We find a close correlation between the time and height variations of radar reflectivity and ice mass density, at all PMSE heights, from 80 km up to 95 km. A quantitative expression relating radar reflectivities to ice mass density is found, including an empirical dependence on background electron density. Using this relation, we can use PMSE reflectivities as a proxy for ice mass density, and estimate the daily variation of ice mass density from the daily variation of PMSE reflectivities. According to this proxy, ice mass density is maximum around 05:00–07:00 LT, with lower values around local noon, in the afternoon and in the evening. This is consistent with the small number of previously published measurements and model predictions of the daily variation of noctilucent (mesospheric clouds and in contrast to the daily variation of PMSE, which has a broad daytime maximum, extending from 05:00 LT to 15:00 LT, and an evening-midnight minimum.

  19. Crustal displacements in Greenland caused by ice mass variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Karina

    Isstrøm and Jakobshavn Isbræ. GIA is an important correction in gravity-based mass balance estimates. It is therefore important to obtain reliable GIA predictions. Observed rates of crustal displacement can be used to constrain the GIA response, assuming that the presentday response, can be accurately....... Gradients of crustal displacement rates near Upernavik Isstrøm and Jakobshavn Isbræ are modeled and compared to observed rates, to assess the mass balance of these glaciers. By considering displacement gradients, contributions from the mass loss of the rest of the ice sheet and GIA are reduced. Hence......The climate of the Earth is changing. A consequence of this is observed at the polar regions such as Greenland, where the ice sheet is melting with an increasing rate. The unloading of ice causes the Earth to respond elastically in terms of uplift and an outward horizontal deformation of the crust...

  20. A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vongraven, Dag; Aars, Jon; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; DeBruyn, T.D.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Durner, George M.; Gill, Michael J.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Omelak, Jack; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Peacock, Elizabeth; Richardson, E.E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Stirling, Ian; Wiig, Øystein

    2012-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework

  1. The role of charged ice hydrometeors in lightning initiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babich, L. P.; Bochkov, E. I.; Neubert, Torsten

    2017-01-01

    In connection with the lightning initiation problem, we consider positive streamer formation around charged, needle-shaped ice hydrometeors in an external electric field. We present results of numerical simulations of the streamer discharges that include the ice dielectric polarization and conduc......In connection with the lightning initiation problem, we consider positive streamer formation around charged, needle-shaped ice hydrometeors in an external electric field. We present results of numerical simulations of the streamer discharges that include the ice dielectric polarization...

  2. Ice nucleation from aqueous NaCl droplets with and without marine diatoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Alpert

    2011-06-01

    s−1, and K~6.2+3.5−4.1 ×104 cm−2. The experimentally derived ice nucleation rates and nuclei spectra allow us to estimate ice particle production which we subsequently use for a comparison with observed ice crystal concentrations typically found in cirrus and polar marine mixed-phase clouds. Differences in application of time-dependent and time-independent analyses to predict ice particle production are discussed.

  3. Thermal cracking of CO2 slab ice as the main driving force for albedo increase of the martian seasonal polar caps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philippe, S.; Schmitt, B.; Beck, P.; Brissaud, O.

    2015-10-01

    Understanding the microphysical processes occuring on the Martian seasonal cap is critical since their radiative properties can affect the martian climate. A well documented phenomenom is the albedo increase of the Martian seasonal caps during spring, Fig.1. There are a lot of hypotheses that have been proposed as an explanation for this observation : the decrease of the CO2 grain size [2], a cleaning process of the CO2 slab that would imply either the sinking or the ejection of the dust contained in its volume ([1], [2], [5]), a water-layer accumulation on the top of the slab [5], the role played by aerosols [2] etc ... So far, no experimental simulations have been realized to discriminate between these processes. We designed an experiment to investigate the hypothesis of CO2 ice grain size decrease through thermal cracking as well as that of dust segregation as the possible reasons for albedo increase.

  4. A mechanism for biologically induced iodine emissions from sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiz-Lopez, A.; Blaszczak-Boxe, C. S.; Carpenter, L. J.

    2015-09-01

    Ground- and satellite-based measurements have reported high concentrations of iodine monoxide (IO) in coastal Antarctica. The sources of such a large iodine burden in the coastal Antarctic atmosphere remain unknown. We propose a mechanism for iodine release from sea ice based on the premise that micro-algae are the primary source of iodine emissions in this environment. The emissions are triggered by the biological production of iodide (I-) and hypoiodous acid (HOI) from micro-algae (contained within and underneath sea ice) and their diffusion through sea-ice brine channels, ultimately accumulating in a thin brine layer (BL) on the surface of sea ice. Prior to reaching the BL, the diffusion timescale of iodine within sea ice is depth-dependent. The BL is also a vital component of the proposed mechanism as it enhances the chemical kinetics of iodine-related reactions, which allows for the efficient release of iodine to the polar boundary layer. We suggest that iodine is released to the atmosphere via three possible pathways: (1) emitted from the BL and then transported throughout snow atop sea ice, from where it is released to the atmosphere; (2) released directly from the BL to the atmosphere in regions of sea ice that are not covered with snowpack; or (3) emitted to the atmosphere directly through fractures in the sea-ice pack. To investigate the proposed biology-ice-atmosphere coupling at coastal Antarctica we use a multiphase model that incorporates the transport of iodine species, via diffusion, at variable depths, within brine channels of sea ice. Model simulations were conducted to interpret observations of elevated springtime IO in the coastal Antarctic, around the Weddell Sea. While a lack of experimental and observational data adds uncertainty to the model predictions, the results nevertheless show that the levels of inorganic iodine (i.e. I2, IBr, ICl) released from sea ice through this mechanism could account for the observed IO concentrations during

  5. The interpretation of spikes and trends in concentration of nitrate in polar ice cores, based on evidence from snow and atmospheric measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. W. Wolff

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Nitrate is frequently measured in ice cores, but its interpretation remains immature. Using daily snow surface concentrations of nitrate at Halley (Antarctica for 2004–2005, we show that sharp spikes (>factor 2 in nitrate concentration can occur from day to day. Some of these spikes will be preserved in ice cores. Many of them are associated with sharp increases in the concentration of sea salt in the snow. There is also a close association between the concentrations of aerosol nitrate and sea salt aerosol. This evidence is consistent with many of the spikes in deposited nitrate being due to the conversion or trapping of gas-phase nitrate, i.e. to enhanced deposition rather than enhanced atmospheric concentrations of NOy. Previously, sharp spikes in nitrate concentration (with concentration increases of up to a factor 4 seen in probably just one snowfall have been assigned to sharp production events such as solar proton events (SPEs. We find that it is unlikely that SPEs can produce spikes of the kind seen. Taken together with our evidence that such spikes can be produced depositionally, we find that it is not possible to track past SPEs without carrying out a new multi-site and multi-analyte programme. Seasonal and interannual trends in nitrate concentration in cores from any single site cannot be interpreted in terms of production changes until the recycling of nitrate from central Antarctica to coastal Antarctica is better quantified. It might be possible to assess the interannual input of NOy to the Antarctic lower troposphere by using a network of cores to estimate variability in the total annual deposition across the continent (which we estimate to be 9±2×107kg/a – as NO3, but it will first have to be established that the outflow across the coast can be ignored.

  6. Wave-Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a Wave-Ocean-Ice Coupled Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Wave-Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a...scattering of waves by interaction with ice in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The wave model physics developed here will later be part of an operational...10.5670/oceanog.2014.73. Liu, A.K., B. Holt, and P.W. Vachon, 1991: Wave propagation in the Marginal Ice Zone: Model predictions and comparisons

  7. Evaluation of the IceTag leg sensor and its derivative models to predict behaviour, using beef cattle on rangeland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ungar, E D; Nevo, Y; Baram, H; Arieli, A

    2017-06-02

    There is interest in using animal-mounted sensors to provide the detailed timeline of domesticated ruminant behaviour on rangelands. Working with beef cattle, we evaluated the pedometer-like IceTag device (IceRobotics, Edinburgh, Scotland) that records step events, leg movement and body position (upright versus lying). We used partition analysis to compare behaviour as inferred from the device data with true behaviour as coded at high resolution from carefully synchronized video observations of 5-min duration. Malfunctions reduced the target dataset by 7%. The correspondence between IceTag and video-coded step counts was excellent (r 2 =0.97), and the device's indications of upright or lying corresponded well (error rate=1.4%) to the video-coded values. However, the proportion of steps that could be matched individually was relatively low (65% at a tolerance of 0.5s), and the indicated start of a lying bout was often triggered by leg movements of an upright animal. Partition analysis of Grazing versus Not-Grazing yielded an overall error rate of 22%. In both three- and four-way classifications of behaviour (Graze, Rest, Travel; Graze, Stand, Lie, Travel) error rates were low for non-graze behaviours, but only 25% of Graze observations were correctly classified; the overall error rate was 22%. The IceTag device performed well in mapping the diurnal patterns of animal position and step rate, but less well in separating grazing from upright resting. Our results suggest that pedometry is not the ideal method for classifying behaviour when grazing is of paramount interest. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. A new prediction model for grain yield in Northeast China based on spring North Atlantic Oscillation and late-winter Bering Sea ice cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Mengzi; Wang, Huijun; Huo, Zhiguo

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimations of grain output in the agriculturally important region of Northeast China are of great strategic significance for guaranteeing food security. New prediction models for maize and rice yields are built in this paper based on the spring North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Bering Sea ice cover index. The year-to-year increment is first forecasted and then the original yield value is obtained by adding the historical yield of the previous year. The multivariate linear prediction model of maize shows good predictive ability, with a low normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 13.9%, and the simulated yield accounts for 81% of the total variance of the observation. To improve the performance of the multivariate linear model, a combined forecasting model of rice is built by considering the weight of the predictors. The NRMSE of the model is 12.9% and the predicted rice yield explains 71% of the total variance. The corresponding cross-validation test and independent samples test further demonstrate the efficiency of the models. It is inferred that the statistical models established here by applying year-to-year increment approach could make rational prediction for the maize and rice yield in Northeast China before harvest. The present study may shed new light on yield prediction in advance by use of antecedent large-scale climate signals adequately.

  9. Using tri-axial accelerometers to identify wild polar bear behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagano, Anthony M.; Rode, Karyn D.; Cutting, A.; Owen, M.A.; Jensen, S.; Ware, J.V.; Robbins, C.T.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Obbard, M.E.; Middel, K.R.; Thiemann, G.W.; Williams, T.M.

    2017-01-01

    Tri-axial accelerometers have been used to remotely identify the behaviors of a wide range of taxa. Assigning behaviors to accelerometer data often involves the use of captive animals or surrogate species, as their accelerometer signatures are generally assumed to be similar to those of their wild counterparts. However, this has rarely been tested. Validated accelerometer data are needed for polar bears Ursus maritimus to understand how habitat conditions may influence behavior and energy demands. We used accelerometer and water conductivity data to remotely distinguish 10 polar bear behaviors. We calibrated accelerometer and conductivity data collected from collars with behaviors observed from video-recorded captive polar bears and brown bears U. arctos, and with video from camera collars deployed on free-ranging polar bears on sea ice and on land. We used random forest models to predict behaviors and found strong ability to discriminate the most common wild polar bear behaviors using a combination of accelerometer and conductivity sensor data from captive or wild polar bears. In contrast, models using data from captive brown bears failed to reliably distinguish most active behaviors in wild polar bears. Our ability to discriminate behavior was greatest when species- and habitat-specific data from wild individuals were used to train models. Data from captive individuals may be suitable for calibrating accelerometers, but may provide reduced ability to discriminate some behaviors. The accelerometer calibrations developed here provide a method to quantify polar bear behaviors to evaluate the impacts of declines in Arctic sea ice.

  10. Ice Cores

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Records of past temperature, precipitation, atmospheric trace gases, and other aspects of climate and environment derived from ice cores drilled on glaciers and ice...

  11. Solar cycles in the last centuries in 10Be and delta18O in polar ice and in thermoluminescence signals of a sea sediment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cini Castagnoli, G.; Bonino, G.; Galli, M.; Beer, J.

    1984-01-01

    The cyclogram method of time series analysis has been used to analyse 10 Be data (1181-1800 AD) and delta 18 O data (1181-1960 AD) from an artic ice core and thermoluminescence data (1181-1960 AD) from a Mediterranean sediment core. The 10 Be concentrations were determined at the ETH Zurich. The delta 18 O values were measured at the University of Copenhagen. The TL measurements were performed at the Istituto di Cosmo-geofisica del C.N.R., Torino. Common mean periodicities of 10.75 y are found for the period 1505 to 1710 AD in TL and 10 Be and of 11.4 y for the period 1715 to 1880 in TL and delta 18 O. This periodicity was found in the solar sunspot (Rsub(z)) series analysed in the same way, from 1825 to 1905. This supports the argument that the common periodicities found in the long-running series are peculiar of the solar activity in the past

  12. Improved ice loss estimate of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Wahr, J.

    2013-01-01

    We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003–2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change...... a significant acceleration in mass loss at elevations above 1200 m. Both the improved mass loss estimate along the ice sheet margin and the acceleration at higher elevations have implications for predictions of the elastic adjustment of the lithosphere caused by present-day ice mass changes. Our study shows...... change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show...

  13. Ice Cream

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, E.

    2014-01-01

    Ice cream is a popular dessert, which owes its sensorial properties (mouth feel) to its complex microstructure. The microstructure is a result of the combination of the ingredients and the production process. Ice cream is produced by simultaneous freezing and shearing of the ice cream mix, which

  14. Complex bounds and microstructural recovery from measurements of sea ice permittivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gully, A.; Backstrom, L.G.E.; Eicken, H.; Golden, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    Sea ice is a porous composite of pure ice with brine, air, and salt inclusions. The polar sea ice packs play a key role in the earth's ocean-climate system, and they host robust algal and bacterial communities that support the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. Monitoring the sea ice packs on global or regional scales is an increasingly important problem, typically involving the interaction of an electromagnetic wave with sea ice. In the quasistatic regime where the wavelength is much longer than the composite microstructural scale, the electromagnetic behavior is characterized by the effective complex permittivity tensor ε*. In assessing the impact of climate change on the polar sea ice covers, current satellites and algorithms can predict ice extent, but the thickness distribution remains an elusive, yet most important feature. In recent years, electromagnetic induction devices using low frequency waves have been deployed on ships, helicopters and planes to obtain thickness data. Here we compare two sets of theoretical bounds to extensive outdoor tank and in situ field data on ε* at 50MHz taken in the Arctic and Antarctic. The sea ice is assumed to be a two phase composite of ice and brine with known constituent permittivities. The first set of bounds assumes only knowledge of the brine volume fraction or porosity, and the second set further assumes statistical isotropy of the microstructure. We obtain excellent agreement between theory and experiment, and are able to observe the apparent violation of the isotropic bounds as the vertically oriented microstructure becomes increasingly connected for higher porosities. Moreover, these bounds are inverted to obtain estimates of the porosity from the measurements of ε*. We find that the temporal variations of the reconstructed porosity, which is directly related to temperature, closely follow the actual behavior

  15. Polarization Optics

    OpenAIRE

    Fressengeas, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    The physics of polarization optics *Polarized light propagation *Partially polarized light; DEA; After a brief introduction to polarization optics, this lecture reviews the basic formalisms for dealing with it: Jones Calculus for totally polarized light and Stokes parameters associated to Mueller Calculus for partially polarized light.

  16. Microshear in the deep EDML ice core analyzed using cryogenic EBSD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuiper, Ernst-Jan; Pennock, Gill; Drury, Martyn; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Faria, Sérgio; Weikusat, Ilka

    2017-04-01

    Ice sheets play an important role in sea level evolution by storing large amounts of fresh water on land. The ice in an ice sheet flows from the interior of the ice sheet to the edges where it either melts or calves into the ocean. This flow of ice results from internal deformation of the ice aggregate. Dislocation creep is assumed to be the dominant deformation mechanism for polar ice and is grain size insensitive. Recently, a different deformation mechanism was identified in the deeper part of the EDML ice core (Antarctica) where, at a depth of 2385 meters, the grain size strongly decreases, the grain aspect ratio increase and, the inclination of the grain elongation changes (Faria et al., 2006; Weikusat et al., 2017). At this depth the borehole displacement increases strongly (Weikusat et al., 2017), which indicates a relatively high strain rate. Part of this EDML ice core section was studied using cryogenic electron backscattered diffraction (cryo-EBSD) (Weikusat et al, 2011). EBSD produces high resolution, full crystallographic (a-axis and c-axis) maps of the ice core samples. EBSD samples were taken from an ice core section at 2392.2 meter depth. This section was chosen for its very small grain size and the strongly aligned grain boundaries. The EBSD maps show a very low orientation gradient of sheet mass balance and sea level predictions. References: - Drury and Humphreys, 1988. Microstructural shear criteria associated with grain boundary sliding during ductile deformation. J. of Struc. Geol. 10, 1, 83-89. - Faria et al., 2006. Is Antarctica like a birthday cake?, Max Planck Institute of Mathematics and the Sciences - Weikusat et al., 2011. Cryogenic EBSD on ice: preserving a stable surface in a low pressure SEM. J. Micros. 242, 3, 295-310. (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2818.2010.03471.x) - Weikusat et al., 2017. Physical analysis of an Antarctic ice core-towards an integration of micro- and macrodynamics of polar ice. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 375, 2015347. (doi:10

  17. Legal Ice?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strandsbjerg, Jeppe

    The idealised land|water dichotomy is most obviously challenged by ice when ‘land practice’ takes place on ice or when ‘maritime practice’ is obstructed by ice. Both instances represent disparity between the legal codification of space and its social practice. Logically, then, both instances call...... for alternative legal thought and practice; in the following I will emphasise the former and reflect upon the relationship between ice, law and politics. Prior to this workshop I had worked more on the relationship between cartography, geography and boundaries than specifically on ice. Listening to all...

  18. Ice matters. Arctic and Antarctic under-ice communities linking sea ice with the pelagic food web

    OpenAIRE

    Flores, Hauke; van Franeker, Jan Andries; Lange, Benjamin; Siegel, Volker; Kruse, Svenja; Hunt, Brian; Pakhomov, E. A.

    2013-01-01

    In both Polar Regions, sea ice environments are undergoing rapid environmental change. Because sea ice constitutes an important habitat for numerous species, as well as an important carbon source during critical periods of the year, these changes impact significantly on ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, species distribution and population sizes, including commercially exploited fish stocks. Species dwelling at the ice-water interface (e.g. Antarctic krill and Arctic cod) play a key role in...

  19. Autonomous Ice Mass Balance Buoys for Seasonal Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, J. D.; Planck, C.; Perovich, D. K.; Parno, J. T.; Elder, B. C.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    The ice mass-balance represents the integration of all surface and ocean heat fluxes and attributing the impact of these forcing fluxes on the ice cover can be accomplished by increasing temporal and spatial measurements. Mass balance information can be used to understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic sea ice cover and to improve predictions of future ice conditions. Thinner seasonal ice in the Arctic necessitates the deployment of Autonomous Ice Mass Balance buoys (IMB's) capable of long-term, in situ data collection in both ice and open ocean. Seasonal IMB's (SIMB's) are free floating IMB's that allow data collection in thick ice, thin ice, during times of transition, and even open water. The newest generation of SIMB aims to increase the number of reliable IMB's in the Arctic by leveraging inexpensive commercial-grade instrumentation when combined with specially developed monitoring hardware. Monitoring tasks are handled by a custom, expandable data logger that provides low-cost flexibility for integrating a large range of instrumentation. The SIMB features ultrasonic sensors for direct measurement of both snow depth and ice thickness and a digital temperature chain (DTC) for temperature measurements every 2cm through both snow and ice. Air temperature and pressure, along with GPS data complete the Arctic picture. Additionally, the new SIMB is more compact to maximize deployment opportunities from multiple types of platforms.

  20. Polarized electron beams elastically scattered by atoms as a tool for testing fundamental predictions of quantum mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dapor, Maurizio

    2018-03-29

    Quantum information theory deals with quantum noise in order to protect physical quantum bits (qubits) from its effects. A single electron is an emblematic example of a qubit, and today it is possible to experimentally produce polarized ensembles of electrons. In this paper, the theory of the polarization of electron beams elastically scattered by atoms is briefly summarized. Then the POLARe program suite, a set of computer programs aimed at the calculation of the spin-polarization parameters of electron beams elastically interacting with atomic targets, is described. Selected results of the program concerning Ar, Kr, and Xe atoms are presented together with the comparison with experimental data about the Sherman function for low kinetic energy of the incident electrons (1.5eV-350eV). It is demonstrated that the quantum-relativistic theory of the polarization of electron beams elastically scattered by atoms is in good agreement with experimental data down to energies smaller than a few eV.

  1. Ice formation and growth shape bacterial community structure in Baltic Sea drift ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eronen-Rasimus, Eeva; Lyra, Christina; Rintala, Janne-Markus; Jürgens, Klaus; Ikonen, Vilma; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2015-02-01

    Drift ice, open water and under-ice water bacterial communities covering several developmental stages from open water to thick ice were studied in the northern Baltic Sea. The bacterial communities were assessed with 16S rRNA gene terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism and cloning, together with bacterial abundance and production measurements. In the early stages, open water and pancake ice were dominated by Alphaproteobacteria and Actinobacteria, which are common bacterial groups in Baltic Sea wintertime surface waters. The pancake ice bacterial communities were similar to the open-water communities, suggesting that the parent water determines the sea-ice bacterial community in the early stages of sea-ice formation. In consolidated young and thick ice, the bacterial communities were significantly different from water bacterial communities as well as from each other, indicating community development in Baltic Sea drift ice along with ice-type changes. The thick ice was dominated by typical sea-ice genera from classes Flavobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria, similar to those in polar sea-ice bacterial communities. Since the thick ice bacterial community was remarkably different from that of the parent seawater, results indicate that thick ice bacterial communities were recruited from the rarer members of the seawater bacterial community. © FEMS 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. The polar mesosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, Ray; Murphy, Damian

    2008-01-01

    The mesosphere region, which lies at the edge of space, contains the coldest layer of the Earth's atmosphere, with summer temperatures as low as minus 130 °C. In this extreme environment ice aerosol layers have appeared since the dawn of industrialization—whose existence may arguably be linked to human influence—on yet another layer of the Earth's fragile atmosphere. Ground-based and space-based experiments conducted in the Arctic and Antarctic during the International Polar Year (IPY) aim to address limitations in our knowledge and to advance our understanding of thermal and dynamical processes at play in the polar mesosphere

  3. Rationalization and Prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number (EACN) of Polar Hydrocarbon Oils with COSMO-RS σ-Moments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukowicz, Thomas; Benazzouz, Adrien; Nardello-Rataj, Véronique; Aubry, Jean-Marie

    2015-10-20

    The equivalent alkane carbon numbers (EACNs) of 20 polar hydrocarbon oils are determined by the fishtail method. These values supplemented by 43 already reported EACNs of other hydrocarbons are rationalized by using the COSMO-RS σ-moments as descriptors for a QSPR analysis. A reliable model, with only two meaningful physicochemical parameters, namely the surface area (M0(X)) and the overall polarity (M2(X)) of the oil X, is able to predict the EACN values of a large variety of oils including (cyclo)alkanes, (cyclo)alkenes, terpenes, aromatics, alkynes, and chloroalkanes and to rationalize structural effects on EACNs. Furthermore, the dependence of the EACN of homologous oils on the chain length provides some molecular insight into how the different oils penetrate into the interfacial film of surfactants.

  4. Polar body array CGH for prediction of the status of the corresponding oocyte. Part II: technical aspects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magli, M. Cristina; Montag, Markus; Köster, Maria; Muzi, Luigi; Geraedts, Joep; Collins, John; Goossens, Veerle; Handyside, Alan H.; Harper, Joyce; Repping, Sjoerd; Schmutzler, Andreas; Vesela, Katerina; Gianaroli, Luca

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the technical aspects related to polar body (PB) biopsy, which might have an influence on the results of the microarray comparative genomic hybridization analysis. Furthermore, a comparison was made between two biopsy methods (mechanical and laser). Biopsy of

  5. Ice sheet anisotropy measured with polarimetric ice sounding radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jørgen

    2010-01-01

    For polar ice sheets, valuable stress and strain information can be deduced from crystal orientation fabrics (COF) and their prevailing c-axis alignment. Polarimetric radio echo sounding is a promising technique to measure the anisotropic electromagnetic propagation and reflection properties asso...

  6. Reading the Ice: Using Remote Sensing to Analyze Radar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Brandon; Leinmiller-Renick, Kelsey; Foga, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the behavior of ice sheets (thick, continent-size ice masses) and glaciers (smaller, flowing masses of ice) is increasingly important as our climate changes, particularly in the Polar Regions. This article describes two lessons, based on the 5E (engage, explore, explain, elaborate, and evaluate) model, that help students practice…

  7. Identifying polar bear resource selection patterns to inform offshore development in a dynamic and changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Horne, Jon S.; Rode, Karyn D.; Regehr, Eric V.; Durner, George M.

    2014-01-01

    Although sea ice loss is the primary threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus), little can be done to mitigate its effects without global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other factors, however, could exacerbate the impacts of sea ice loss on polar bears, such as exposure to increased industrial activity. The Arctic Ocean has enormous oil and gas potential, and its development is expected to increase in the coming decades. Estimates of polar bear resource selection will inform managers how bears use areas slated for oil development and to help guide conservation planning. We estimated temporally-varying resource selection patterns for non-denning adult female polar bears in the Chukchi Sea population (2008–2012) at two scales (i.e., home range and weekly steps) to identify factors predictive of polar bear use throughout the year, before any offshore development. From the best models at each scale, we estimated scale-integrated resource selection functions to predict polar bear space use across the population's range and determined when bears were most likely to use the region where offshore oil and gas development in the United States is slated to occur. Polar bears exhibited significant intra-annual variation in selection patterns at both scales but the strength and annual patterns of selection differed between scales for most variables. Bears were most likely to use the offshore oil and gas planning area during ice retreat and growth with the highest predicted use occurring in the southern portion of the planning area. The average proportion of predicted high-value habitat in the planning area was >15% of the total high-value habitat for the population during sea ice retreat and growth and reached a high of 50% during November 2010. Our results provide a baseline on which to judge future changes to non-denning adult female polar bear resource selection in the Chukchi Sea and help guide offshore development in the region. Lastly, our study provides a

  8. Simulating Arctic clouds during Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromwich, D. H.; Hines, K. M.; Wang, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    The representation within global and regional models of the extensive low-level cloud cover over polar oceans remains a critical challenge for quantitative studies and forecasts of polar climate. In response, the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) is used to simulate the meteorology, boundary layer, and Arctic clouds during the September-October 2014 Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) project. Polar WRF was developed with several adjustments to the sea ice thermodynamics in WRF. ARISE was based out of Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, Alaska and included multiple instrumented C-130 aircraft flights over open water and sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Arctic boundary layer clouds were frequently observed within cold northeasterly flow over the open ocean and ice. Preliminary results indicate these clouds were primarily liquid water, with characteristics differing between open water and sea ice surfaces. Simulated clouds are compared to ARISE observations. Furthermore, Polar WRF simulations are run for the August-September 2008 Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) for comparison to the ARISE. Preliminary analysis shows that simulated low-level water clouds over the sea ice are too extensive during the the second half of the ASCOS field program. Alternatives and improvements to the Polar WRF cloud schemes are considered. The goal is to use the ARISE and ASCOS observations to achieve an improved polar supplement to the WRF code for open water and sea ice that can be provided to the Polar WRF community.

  9. Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

    2013-01-01

    During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

  10. An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uotila, Petteri

    2017-04-01

    Ocean reanalysis (ORA) combines observations either statistically or with a hydrodynamical model, to reconstruct historical changes in the ocean. Global and regional ORA products are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (PORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project (Balmaseda et al. 2015, with other papers in a special issue of Climate Dynamics). The PORA-IP is constituted under the COST EOS initiative with plans to review reanalyses products in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and is endorsed by YOPP - the Year of Polar Prediction project. Currently, the PORA-IP team consists of 21 researchers from 15 institutes and universities. The ORA-IP products with polar physics, such as sea ice, have been updated where necessary and collected in a public database. In addition to model output, available observational polar climatologies are collected and used in the assessments. Due to the extensive variety of products, this database should become a valuable resource outside the PORA-IP community. For a comprehensive evaluation of the ten ORA products (CGLORSv5, ECDA3.1, GECCO2, Glorys2v4, GloSea5_GO5, MOVEG2i, ORAP5, SODA3.3.1, TOPAZ4 and UR025.4) in the Arctic and Southern Oceans several specific diagnostics are assessed. The PORA-IP diagnostics target the following topics: hydrography; heat, salinity and freshwater content; ocean transports and surface currents; mixed layer depth; sea-ice concentration and thickness; and snow thickness over sea ice. Based on these diagnostics, ORA product biases against observed data and their mutual spread are quantified, and possible reasons for discrepancies discussed. So far, we have identified product outliers and evaluated the multi-model mean. We have identified the importance of the atmospheric forcing, air-ocean coupling protocol and sea-ice data assimilation for the product performance. Moreover, we

  11. Sea-ice thickness from airborne laser altimetry over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Forsberg, René

    2002-01-01

    We present a new method to measure ice thickness of polar sea-ice freeboard heights, using airborne laser altimetry combined with a precise geoid model, giving estimates of thickness of ice through isostatic equilibrium assumptions. In the paper we analyze a number of flights from the Polar Sea off...

  12. EBSD in Antarctic and Greenland Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weikusat, Ilka; Kuiper, Ernst-Jan; Pennock, Gill; Sepp, Kipfstuhl; Drury, Martyn

    2017-04-01

    Ice, particularly the extensive amounts found in the polar ice sheets, impacts directly on the global climate by changing the albedo and indirectly by supplying an enormous water reservoir that affects sea level change. The discharge of material into the oceans is partly controlled by the melt excess over snow accumulation, partly by the dynamic flow of ice. In addition to sliding over bedrock, an ice body deforms gravitationally under its own weight. In order to improve our description of this flow, ice microstructure studies are needed that elucidate the dominant deformation and recrystallization mechanisms involved. Deformation of hexagonal ice is highly anisotropic: ice is easily sheared in the basal plane and is about two orders of magnitude harder parallel to the c-axis. As dislocation creep is the dominant deformation mechanism in polar ice this strong anisotropy needs to be understood in terms of dislocation activity. The high anisotropy of the ice crystal is usually ascribed to a particular behaviour of dislocations in ice, namely the extension of dislocations into partials on the basal plane. Analysis of EBSD data can help our understanding of dislocation activity by characterizing subgrain boundary types thus providing a tool for comprehensive dislocation characterization in polar ice. Cryo-EBSD microstructure in combination with light microscopy measurements from ice core material from Antarctica (EPICA-DML deep ice core) and Greenland (NEEM deep ice core) are presented and interpreted regarding substructure identification and characterization. We examined one depth for each ice core (EDML: 656 m, NEEM: 719 m) to obtain the first comparison of slip system activity from the two ice sheets. The subgrain boundary to grain boundary threshold misorientation was taken to be 3-5° (Weikusat et al. 2011). EBSD analyses suggest that a large portion of edge dislocations with slip systems basal gliding on the basal plane were indeed involved in forming subgrain

  13. Numerical Prediction of the Intracellular ICE Formation Zone during Cryosurgery on a Nodular Basal Cell Carcinoma Using Liquid Nitrogen Spray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sun

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Cryosurgery is a surgical technique that employs freezing to destroy target tumor tissue. While the main objective during a cryosurgical procedure is to ensure tissue destruction within the cryolesion, the greatest challenge is how to spare the surrounding healthy tissues from cryoablation. In this work, a historical review of the field of cryosurgery is presented followed by a theoretical study where a mathematical model is developed for cryosurgery on a basal cell carcinoma (BCC using liquid nitrogen (LN2 spray. The model takes into consideration the anatomic structure of skin tissue and the irregular geometry of BCC. In particular, a methodology for quantitatively determining the extent of the intracellular ice formation (IIF zone based on the tissue temperature and cooling rate (CR is proposed, which can directly relate to the necrosis of the cancer cells after cryosurgery. The model is then used to analyze formation of the IIF zone during cryosurgery on a BCC and quantification is provided for the volume of the final IIF zone. A parametric study is also carried out to investigate the effect of various protocol parameters on the final IIF zone. The results should be useful for dermatologists for pre-treatment surgery planning.

  14. A Second New Species of Ice Crawlers from China (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), with Thorax Evolution and the Prediction of Potential Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Ming; Jarvis, Karl; Wang, Shu-Yong; Song, Ke-Qing; Wang, Yan-Ping; Wang, Zhi-Liang; Li, Wen-Zhu; Wang, Wei; Yang, Xing-Ke

    2010-01-01

    Modern grylloblattids are one of the least diverse of the modern insect orders. The thorax changes in morphology might be associated with the changes of the function of the forelegs, wing loss, changes in behavior and adaptation to habitat. As temperature is the main barrier for migration of modern grylloblattids, the range of each species is extremely limited. The potential distribution areas of grylloblattids remain unclear. A second new species of ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea), Grylloblattella cheni Bai, Wang et Yang sp. nov., is described from China. The distribution map and key to species of Grylloblattella are given. A comparison of the thorax of extant and extinct Grylloblattodea is presented, with an emphasis on the pronotum using geometric morphometric analysis, which may reflect thorax adaptation and the evolution of Grylloblattodea. Potential global distribution of grylloblattids is inferred. Highly diversified pronota of extinct Grylloblattodea may reflect diverse habitats and niches. The relatively homogeneous pronota of modern grylloblattids might be explained by two hypotheses: synapomorphy or convergent evolution. Most fossils of Grylloblattodea contain an obviously longer meso- and metathorax than prothorax. The length of the meso- and metathorax of modern grylloblattids is normally shorter than the prothorax. This may be associated with the wing loss, which is accompanied by muscle reduction and changes to the thoracic skeleton system. Threats to grylloblattids and several conservation comments are also provided. PMID:20877572

  15. Dry Ice Etches Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Figure 1 Every year seasonal carbon dioxide ice, known to us as 'dry ice,' covers the poles of Mars. In the south polar region this ice is translucent, allowing sunlight to pass through and warm the surface below. The ice then sublimes (evaporates) from the bottom of the ice layer, and carves channels in the surface. The channels take on many forms. In the subimage shown here (figure 1) the gas from the dry ice has etched wide shallow channels. This region is relatively flat, which may be the reason these channels have a different morphology than the 'spiders' seen in more hummocky terrain. Observation Geometry Image PSP_003364_0945 was taken by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft on 15-Apr-2007. The complete image is centered at -85.4 degrees latitude, 104.0 degrees East longitude. The range to the target site was 251.5 km (157.2 miles). At this distance the image scale is 25.2 cm/pixel (with 1 x 1 binning) so objects 75 cm across are resolved. The image shown here has been map-projected to 25 cm/pixel . The image was taken at a local Mars time of 06:57 PM and the scene is illuminated from the west with a solar incidence angle of 75 degrees, thus the sun was about 15 degrees above the horizon. At a solar longitude of 219.6 degrees, the season on Mars is Northern Autumn.

  16. The Last Arctic Sea Ice Refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Newton, R.; Fowler, C.

    2010-12-01

    Summer sea ice may persist along the northern flank of Canada and Greenland for decades longer than the rest of the Arctic, raising the possibility of a naturally formed refugium for ice-associated species. Observations and models indicate that some ice in this region forms locally, while some is transported to the area by winds and ocean currents. Depending on future changes in melt patterns and sea ice transport rates, both the central Arctic and Siberian shelf seas may be sources of ice to the region. An international system of monitoring and management of the sea ice refuge, along with the ice source regions, has the potential to maintain viable habitat for ice-associated species, including polar bears, for decades into the future. Issues to consider in developing a strategy include: + the likely duration and extent of summer sea ice in this region based on observations, models and paleoenvironmental information + the extent and characteristics of the “ice shed” contributing sea ice to the refuge, including its dynamics, physical and biological characteristics as well as potential for contamination from local or long-range sources + likely assemblages of ice-associated species and their habitats + potential stressors such as transportation, tourism, resource extraction, contamination + policy, governance, and development issues including management strategies that could maintain the viability of the refuge.

  17. Ice Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Mary Jane

    2017-05-01

    Ice is a fundamental solid with important environmental, biological, geological, and extraterrestrial impact. The stable form of ice at atmospheric pressure is hexagonal ice, Ih. Despite its prevalence, Ih remains an enigmatic solid, in part due to challenges in preparing samples for fundamental studies. Surfaces of ice present even greater challenges. Recently developed methods for preparation of large single-crystal samples make it possible to reproducibly prepare any chosen face to address numerous fundamental questions. This review describes preparation methods along with results that firmly establish the connection between the macroscopic structure (observed in snowflakes, microcrystallites, or etch pits) and the molecular-level configuration (detected with X-ray or electron scattering techniques). Selected results of probing interactions at the ice surface, including growth from the melt, surface vibrations, and characterization of the quasi-liquid layer, are discussed.

  18. Climate models agree remarkably well on Arctic sea ice reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Jens H.; Yang, Shuting; Langen, Peter L.; Thejl, Peter; Boberg, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Coupled global climate models have been used to provide future climate projections as major tools based on physical laws that govern the dynamics and thermodynamics of the climate system. However, while climate models in general predict declines in Arctic sea ice cover (i.e., ice extent and volume) from late 20th century through the next decades in response to increase of anthropogenic forcing, models show wide inter-model spread in hindcast with simulated sea ice extend as low as 50% or as high as 200% of the observed present day conditions. Likewise models show a wide range in the timing of projected sea ice decline, raising the question of uncertainty in model predicted polar climate and casting doubt on the robustness of the findings based on multi-model approaches, such as provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Constrained estimates of when global mean temperature pass a certain threshold leading to a new sea ice state in the Arctic with summer time open water conditions are in increasing demand both for scientific reasons, but also from policymakers and stakeholders in general. Climate models are used to pursue this, but due to model inadequacies or 'errors' mentioned above, as well as a wide spread in possible future projections, uncertainties due to model deficiencies have been seen as the main source of uncertainty in providing the demanded information with sufficient accuracy. As an effort within the ERC-Synergy project Ice2Ice, here we demonstrate that relating relative changes in sea ice area with global mean temperature change from individual models using all available information from the CMIP5 archives from historical and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 future scenarios, together with the observed variation from 1979-2015 shows that i) simulated and observed sea ice area cannot at the 95% level be seen as coming from different statistical populations; ii) the Arctic could as a combination of natural variability and anthropogenic

  19. Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

  20. Ice Caps and Ice Belts: The Effects of Obliquity on Ice−Albedo Feedback

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Brian E. J. [Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany (State University of New York), 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY 12222 (United States); Cronin, Timothy W. [Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Bitz, Cecilia M., E-mail: brose@albany.edu [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, MS 351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1640 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice−albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity is given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the “deep-water” regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a “Large Ice-Belt Instability” and “Small Ice-Belt Instability” at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps.

  1. The Second Deep Ice Coring Project at Dome Fuji, Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideaki Motoyama

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the history of the polar icecaps, dust and aerosols have been transported through the atmosphere to the poles, to be preserved within the annually freezing ice of the growing ice shields. Therefore, the Antarctic ice sheet is a “time capsule" for environmental data, containing information of ancient periods of Earth’s history. To unravel this history and decode cycles in glaciations and global change is among the major goals of the Dome Fuji Ice Coring Project.

  2. Mars, earth, and ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordell, B.M.

    1986-01-01

    Possible mechanisms to explain the global ice covering of Mars, and previous ice ages on the earth, are considered. Evidence for the Milankovitch effect is found in the close correspondence of earth's past climate with its orbital variations, as recorded principally in ocean sediments, and the role of CO 2 is discussed. Mars' range of obliquity, 10 times that of the earth, and orbital eccentricity, fluctuating over a range 2 1/2 times that of the earth, could produce an important climate-driving cycle. Mathematical models of the Martian surface and atmosphere based on Viking data suggest that escaped CO 2 could create a surface pressure of 1-3 bars. Other factors such as the effect of continental drift, the increased brightness of the sun, and planetary reversals of magnetic field polarity are discussed, and the questions of where Martian water and CO 2 have gone are considered

  3. Ice matters. Under-ice fauna surveys in the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans

    OpenAIRE

    Flores, Hauke; David, Carmen; Lange, Benjamin; van Franeker, J.-A.; Siegel, Volker; Pakhomov, E. A.; Hunt, B. P. V.; Van de Putte, A. P.; Tonkes, Henrieke; Nicolaus, Marcel; Fernandez Mendez, Mar; Niehoff, Barbara; Peeken, Ilka

    2013-01-01

    In the Polar Regions, sea ice habitats are undergoing rapid environmental change. Because sea ice constitutes an important substrate for numerous species, as well as an important carbon source during critical periods of the year, these changes have a significant impact on ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, species distribution, and population sizes of both commercially exploited species, and species valuable from a conservation perspective. Species dwelling at the ice-water interface (e.g. ...

  4. Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. F. Ruddiman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The origin of the major ice-sheet variations during the last 2.7 million years is a long-standing mystery. Neither the dominant 41 000-year cycles in δ18O/ice-volume during the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene nor the late-Pleistocene oscillations near 100 000 years is a linear ('Milankovitch' response to summer insolation forcing. Both responses must result from non-linear behavior within the climate system. Greenhouse gases (primarily CO2 are a plausible source of the required non-linearity, but confusion has persisted over whether the gases force ice volume or are a positive feedback. During the last several hundred thousand years, CO2 and ice volume (marine δ18O have varied in phase at the 41 000-year obliquity cycle and nearly in phase within the ~100 000-year band. This timing rules out greenhouse-gas forcing of a very slow ice response and instead favors ice control of a fast CO2 response. In the schematic model proposed here, ice sheets responded linearly to insolation forcing at the precession and obliquity cycles prior to 0.9 million years ago, but CO2 feedback amplified the ice response at the 41 000-year period by a factor of approximately two. After 0.9 million years ago, with slow polar cooling, ablation weakened. CO2 feedback continued to amplify ice-sheet growth every 41 000 years, but weaker ablation permitted some ice to survive insolation maxima of low intensity. Step-wise growth of these longer-lived ice sheets continued until peaks in northern summer insolation produced abrupt deglaciations every ~85 000 to ~115 000 years. Most of the deglacial ice melting resulted from the same CO2/temperature feedback that had built the ice sheets. Several processes have the northern geographic origin, as well as the requisite orbital tempo and phasing, to be candidate mechanisms for ice-sheet control of CO2 and their own feedback.

  5. Compression experiments on artificial, alpine and marine ice: implications for ice-shelf/continental interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierckx, Marie; Goossens, Thomas; Samyn, Denis; Tison, Jean-Louis

    2010-05-01

    Antarctic ice shelves are important components of continental ice dynamics, in that they control grounded ice flow towards the ocean. As such, Antarctic ice shelves are a key parameter to the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the context of global change. Marine ice, formed by sea water accretion beneath some ice shelves, displays distinct physical (grain textures, bubble content, ...) and chemical (salinity, isotopic composition, ...) characteristics as compared to glacier ice and sea ice. The aim is to refine Glen's flow relation (generally used for ice behaviour in deformation) under various parameters (temperature, salinity, debris, grain size ...) to improve deformation laws used in dynamic ice shelf models, which would then give more accurate and / or realistic predictions on ice shelf stability. To better understand the mechanical properties of natural ice, deformation experiments were performed on ice samples in laboratory, using a pneumatic compression device. To do so, we developed a custom built compression rig operated by pneumatic drives. It has been designed for performing uniaxial compression tests at constant load and under unconfined conditions. The operating pressure ranges from about 0.5 to 10 Bars. This allows modifying the experimental conditions to match the conditions found at the grounding zone (in the 1 Bar range). To maintain the ice at low temperature, the samples are immersed in a Silicone oil bath connected to an external refrigeration system. During the experiments, the vertical displacement of the piston and the applied force is measured by sensors which are connected to a digital acquisition system. We started our experiments with artificial ice and went on with continental ice samples from glaciers in the Alps. The first results allowed us to acquire realistic mechanical data for natural ice. Ice viscosity was calculated for different types of artificial ice, using Glen's flow law, and showed the importance of impurities

  6. Mixed ice accretion on aircraft wings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janjua, Zaid A.; Turnbull, Barbara; Hibberd, Stephen; Choi, Kwing-So

    2018-02-01

    Ice accretion is a problematic natural phenomenon that affects a wide range of engineering applications including power cables, radio masts, and wind turbines. Accretion on aircraft wings occurs when supercooled water droplets freeze instantaneously on impact to form rime ice or runback as water along the wing to form glaze ice. Most models to date have ignored the accretion of mixed ice, which is a combination of rime and glaze. A parameter we term the "freezing fraction" is defined as the fraction of a supercooled droplet that freezes on impact with the top surface of the accretion ice to explore the concept of mixed ice accretion. Additionally we consider different "packing densities" of rime ice, mimicking the different bulk rime densities observed in nature. Ice accretion is considered in four stages: rime, primary mixed, secondary mixed, and glaze ice. Predictions match with existing models and experimental data in the limiting rime and glaze cases. The mixed ice formulation however provides additional insight into the composition of the overall ice structure, which ultimately influences adhesion and ice thickness, and shows that for similar atmospheric parameter ranges, this simple mixed ice description leads to very different accretion rates. A simple one-dimensional energy balance was solved to show how this freezing fraction parameter increases with decrease in atmospheric temperature, with lower freezing fraction promoting glaze ice accretion.

  7. Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, James; Vongraven, Dag; Atwood, Todd C.; Hansen, Bob; Jessen, Amalie; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; York, Geoff; Vallender, Rachel; Hedman, Daryll; Gibbons, Melissa

    2017-01-01

    Understanding causes of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) attacks on humans is critical to ensuring both human safety and polar bear conservation. Although considerable attention has been focused on understanding black (U. americanus) and grizzly (U. arctos) bear conflicts with humans, there have been few attempts to systematically collect, analyze, and interpret available information on human-polar bear conflicts across their range. To help fill this knowledge gap, a database was developed (Polar Bear-Human Information Management System [PBHIMS]) to facilitate the range-wide collection and analysis of human-polar bear conflict data. We populated the PBHIMS with data collected throughout the polar bear range, analyzed polar bear attacks on people, and found that reported attacks have been extremely rare. From 1870–2014, we documented 73 attacks by wild polar bears, distributed among the 5 polar bear Range States (Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, and United States), which resulted in 20 human fatalities and 63 human injuries. We found that nutritionally stressed adult male polar bears were the most likely to pose threats to human safety. Attacks by adult females were rare, and most were attributed to defense of cubs. We judged that bears acted as a predator in most attacks, and that nearly all attacks involved ≤2 people. Increased concern for both human and bear safety is warranted in light of predictions of increased numbers of nutritionally stressed bears spending longer amounts of time on land near people because of the loss of their sea ice habitat. Improved conflict investigation is needed to collect accurate and relevant data and communicate accurate bear safety messages and mitigation strategies to the public. With better information, people can take proactive measures in polar bear habitat to ensure their safety and prevent conflicts with polar bears. This work represents an important first step towards improving our understanding of factors influencing

  8. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ice cover over selected oceanic regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The variations in oceanic ice cover at selected polar regions during 1973 to 1987 have been analysed in relation to the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The ice cover over the Arctic regions in June has negative relationship (correlation...

  9. Near-real-time Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Tilling

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Timely observations of sea ice thickness help us to understand the Arctic climate, and have the potential to support seasonal forecasts and operational activities in the polar regions. Although it is possible to calculate Arctic sea ice thickness using measurements acquired by CryoSat-2, the latency of the final release data set is typically 1 month due to the time required to determine precise satellite orbits. We use a new fast-delivery CryoSat-2 data set based on preliminary orbits to compute Arctic sea ice thickness in near real time (NRT, and analyse this data for one sea ice growth season from October 2014 to April 2015. We show that this NRT sea-ice-thickness product is of comparable accuracy to that produced using the final release CryoSat-2 data, with a mean thickness difference of 0.9 cm, demonstrating that the satellite orbit is not a critical factor in determining sea ice freeboard. In addition, the CryoSat-2 fast-delivery product also provides measurements of Arctic sea ice thickness within 3 days of acquisition by the satellite, and a measurement is delivered, on average, within 14, 7 and 6 km of each location in the Arctic every 2, 14 and 28 days respectively. The CryoSat-2 NRT sea-ice-thickness data set provides an additional constraint for short-term and seasonal predictions of changes in the Arctic ice cover and could support industries such as tourism and transport through assimilation in operational models.

  10. New evidence for surface water ice in small-scale cold traps and in three large craters at the north polar region of Mercury from the Mercury Laser Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Ariel N.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Head, James W.

    2017-09-01

    The Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) measured surface reflectance, rs, at 1064 nm. On Mercury, most water-ice deposits have anomalously low rs values indicative of an insulating layer beneath which ice is buried. Previous detections of surface water ice (without an insulating layer) were limited to seven possible craters. Here we map rs in three additional permanently shadowed craters that host radar-bright deposits. Each crater has a mean rs value >0.3, suggesting that water ice is exposed at the surface without an overlying insulating layer. We also identify small-scale cold traps (rs >0.3 and permanent shadows have biannual maximum surface temperatures <100 K. We suggest that a substantial amount of Mercury's water ice is not confined to large craters but exists within microcold traps, within rough patches and intercrater terrain.

  11. A New Remotely Operated Sensor Platform for Interdisciplinary Observations under Sea Ice

    OpenAIRE

    Katlein, Christian; Schiller, Martin; Belter, Hans J.; Coppolaro, Veronica; Wenslandt, David; Nicolaus, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    Observation of the climate and ecosystem of ice covered polar seas is a timely task for the scientific community. The goal is to assess the drastic and imminent changes of the polar sea ice cover induced by climate change. Retreating and thinning sea ice affects the planets energy budget, atmospheric, and oceanic circulation patterns as well as the ecosystem associated with this unique habitat. To increase the observational capabilities of sea ice scientists, we equipped a remotely operated v...

  12. Population structure of ice-breeding seals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Corey S; Stirling, Ian; Strobeck, Curtis; Coltman, David W

    2008-07-01

    The development of population genetic structure in ice-breeding seal species is likely to be shaped by a combination of breeding habitat and life-history characteristics. Species that return to breed on predictable fast-ice locations are more likely to exhibit natal fidelity than pack-ice-breeding species, which in turn facilitates the development of genetic differentiation between subpopulations. Other aspects of life history such as geographically distinct vocalizations, female gregariousness, and the potential for polygynous breeding may also facilitate population structure. Based on these factors, we predicted that fast-ice-breeding seal species (the Weddell and ringed seal) would show elevated genetic differentiation compared to pack-ice-breeding species (the leopard, Ross, crabeater and bearded seals). We tested this prediction using microsatellite analysis to examine population structure of these six ice-breeding species. Our results did not support this prediction. While none of the Antarctic pack-ice species showed statistically significant population structure, the bearded seal of the Arctic pack ice showed strong differentiation between subpopulations. Again in contrast, the fast-ice-breeding Weddell seal of the Antarctic showed clear evidence for genetic differentiation while the ringed seal, breeding in similar habitat in the Arctic, did not. These results suggest that the development of population structure in ice-breeding phocid seals is a more complex outcome of the interplay of phylogenetic and ecological factors than can be predicted on the basis of breeding substrate and life-history characteristics.

  13. Determining the ice seasons severity during 1982-2015 using the ice extents sum as a new characteristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rjazin, Jevgeni; Pärn, Ove

    2016-04-01

    Sea ice is a key climate factor and it restricts considerably the winter navigation in sever seasons on the Baltic Sea. So determining ice conditions severity and describing ice cover behaviour at severe seasons interests scientists, engineers and navigation managers. The present study is carried out to determine the ice seasons severity degree basing on the ice seasons 1982 to 2015. A new integrative characteristic is introduced to describe the ice season severity. It is the sum of ice extents of the ice season id est the daily ice extents of the season are summed. The commonly used procedure to determine the ice season severity degree by the maximal ice extent is in this research compared to the new characteristic values. The remote sensing data on the ice concentrations on the Baltic Sea published in the European Copernicus Programme are used to obtain the severity characteristic values. The ice extents are calculated on these ice concentration data. Both the maximal ice extent of the season and a newly introduced characteristic - the ice extents sum are used to classify the winters with respect of severity. The most severe winter of the reviewed period is 1986/87. Also the ice seasons 1981/82, 1984/85, 1985/86, 1995/96 and 2002/03 are classified as severe. Only three seasons of this list are severe by both the criteria. They are 1984/85, 1985/86 and 1986/87. We interpret this coincidence as the evidence of enough-during extensive ice cover in these three seasons. In several winters, for example 2010/11 ice cover extended enough for some time, but did not endure. At few other ice seasons as 2002/03 the Baltic Sea was ice-covered in moderate extent, but the ice cover stayed long time. At 11 winters the ice extents sum differed considerably (> 10%) from the maximal ice extent. These winters yield one third of the studied ice seasons. The maximal ice extent of the season is simple to use and enables to reconstruct the ice cover history and to predict maximal ice

  14. Do pelagic grazers benefit from sea ice? Insights from the Antarctic sea ice proxy IPSO25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Katrin; Brown, Thomas A.; Belt, Simon T.; Ireland, Louise C.; Taylor, Kyle W. R.; Thorpe, Sally E.; Ward, Peter; Atkinson, Angus

    2018-04-01

    Sea ice affects primary production in polar regions in multiple ways. It can dampen water column productivity by reducing light or nutrient supply, provide a habitat for ice algae and condition the marginal ice zone (MIZ) for phytoplankton blooms on its seasonal retreat. The relative importance of three different carbon sources (sea ice derived, sea ice conditioned, non-sea-ice associated) for the polar food web is not well understood, partly due to the lack of methods that enable their unambiguous distinction. Here we analysed two highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) biomarkers to trace sea-ice-derived and sea-ice-conditioned carbon in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and relate their concentrations to the grazers' body reserves, growth and recruitment. During our sampling in January-February 2003, the proxy for sea ice diatoms (a di-unsaturated HBI termed IPSO25, δ13C = -12.5 ± 3.3 ‰) occurred in open waters of the western Scotia Sea, where seasonal ice retreat was slow. In suspended matter from surface waters, IPSO25 was present at a few stations close to the ice edge, but in krill the marker was widespread. Even at stations that had been ice-free for several weeks, IPSO25 was found in krill stomachs, suggesting that they gathered the ice-derived algae from below the upper mixed layer. Peak abundances of the proxy for MIZ diatoms (a tri-unsaturated HBI termed HBI III, δ13C = -42.2 ± 2.4 ‰) occurred in regions of fast sea ice retreat and persistent salinity-driven stratification in the eastern Scotia Sea. Krill sampled in the area defined by the ice edge bloom likewise contained high amounts of HBI III. As indicators for the grazer's performance we used the mass-length ratio, size of digestive gland and growth rate for krill, and recruitment for the biomass-dominant calanoid copepods Calanoides acutus and Calanus propinquus. These indices consistently point to blooms in the MIZ as an important feeding ground for pelagic grazers. Even though ice

  15. Comprehensive mollusk acute toxicity database improves the use of Interspecies Correlation Estimation (ICE) models to predict toxicity of untested freshwater and endangered mussel species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) models extrapolate acute toxicity data from surrogate test species to untested taxa. A suite of ICE models developed from a comprehensive database is available on the US Environmental Protection Agency’s web-based application, Web-I...

  16. Protists in Arctic drift and land-fast sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comeau, André M; Philippe, Benoît; Thaler, Mary; Gosselin, Michel; Poulin, Michel; Lovejoy, Connie

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change is having profound impacts on polar ice with changes in the duration and extent of both land-fast ice and drift ice, which is part of the polar ice pack. Sea ice is a distinct habitat and the morphologically identifiable sympagic community living within sea ice can be readily distinguished from pelagic species. Sympagic metazoa and diatoms have been studied extensively since they can be identified using microscopy techniques. However, non-diatom eukaryotic cells living in ice have received much less attention despite taxa such as the dinoflagellate Polarella and the cercozoan Cryothecomonas being isolated from sea ice. Other small flagellates have also been reported, suggesting complex microbial food webs. Since smaller flagellates are fragile, often poorly preserved, and are difficult for non-experts to identify, we applied high throughput tag sequencing of the V4 region of the 18S rRNA gene to investigate the eukaryotic microbiome within the ice. The sea ice communities were diverse (190 taxa) and included many heterotrophic and mixotrophic species. Dinoflagellates (43 taxa), diatoms (29 taxa) and cercozoans (12 taxa) accounted for ~80% of the sequences. The sympagic communities living within drift ice and land-fast ice harbored taxonomically distinct communities and we highlight specific taxa of dinoflagellates and diatoms that may be indicators of land-fast and drift ice. © 2012 Phycological Society of America.

  17. NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brucker, Ludovic; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Markus, Thorsten; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2014-01-01

    Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than

  18. Thermodynamic and Dynamic Aspects of Ice Nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barahona, Donifan

    2018-01-01

    It is known that ice nucleating particles (INP) immersed within supercooled droplets promote the formation of ice. Common theoretical models used to represent this process assume that the immersed particle lowers the work of ice nucleation without significantly affecting the dynamics of water in the vicinity of the particle. This is contrary to evidence showing that immersed surfaces significantly affect the viscosity and diffusivity of vicinal water. To study how this may affect ice formation this work introduces a model linking the ice nucleation rate to the modification of the dynamics and thermodynamics of vicinal water by immersed particles. It is shown that INP that significantly reduce the work of ice nucleation also pose strong limitations to the growth of the nascent ice germs. This leads to the onset of a new ice nucleation regime, called spinodal ice nucleation, where the dynamics of ice germ growth instead of the ice germ size determines the nucleation rate. Nucleation in this regime is characterized by an enhanced sensitivity to particle area and cooling rate. Comparison of the predicted ice nucleation rate against experimental measurements for a diverse set of species relevant to cloud formation suggests that spinodal ice nucleation may be common in nature.

  19. Theoretical predictions for the polarization of the J = 0 - 1 neonlike germanium X-ray laser line in the presence of a directed beam of hot electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inal, M.K.; Dubau, J.; Cornille, M.

    1998-01-01

    The polarization of the neonlike germanium J = 0 - 1 laser line, which would arise from the existence of a directed beam of hot electrons in the amplifying plasma, is theoretically investigated. The relative populations of the magnetic sublevels in the lower J = 1 laser level have been determined by allowing for the processes of direct excitation from the 2p 6 ground level and collisional de-excitation from the upper J = 0 laser level. Elastic collisions leading to transitions between the M J = 0 and M J =1 sublevels within the lower level of the lasing line have also been taken into account. The required elastic and inelastic collision strengths for transitions between magnetic sublevels have been computed in a semi-relativistic distorted-wave approximation, for incident electron energies up to 15 keV. Our calculations predict a rather low degree of polarization for the J = 0 - 1 line, although the elastic collisions are found to play a negligibly small role in the redistribution of magnetic sublevel populations. (author)

  20. A mechanism for biologically-induced iodine emissions from sea-ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boxe, C.

    2015-12-01

    Ground- and satellite-based measurements reported high concentrations of iodine monoxide (IO) in coastal Antarctica. The sources of such a large iodine burden in the coastal Antarctic atmosphere remain unknown. We propose a mechanism for iodine release from sea-ice based on the premise that micro-algae are the primary source of iodine emissions in this environment. The emissions are triggered by the biological production of iodide (I-) and hypoiodous acid (HOI) from micro-algae (contained within and underneath sea-ice) and their diffusion through sea-ice brine channels, to accumulate in a thin brine layer (BL) on the surface of sea-ice. Prior to reaching the BL, the diffusion timescale of iodine within sea-ice is depth-dependent. The BL is also a vital component of the proposed mechanism as it enhances the chemical kinetics of iodine-related reactions, which allows for the efficient release of iodine to the polar boundary layer. We suggest iodine is released to the atmosphere via 3 possible pathways: (1) emitted from the BL and then transported throughout snow atop sea-ice, to be released to the atmosphere; (2) released directly from the BL to the atmosphere in regions of sea-ice that are not covered with snowpack; or (3) emitted to the atmosphere directly through fractures in the sea-ice pack. To investigate the proposed biology-ice-atmosphere coupling at coastal Antarctica we use a multiphase model that incorporates the transport of iodine species, via diffusion, at variable depths, within brine channels of sea-ice. Model simulations were conducted to interpret observations of elevated springtime IO in the coastal Antarctic, around the Weddell Sea. While a lack of experimental and observational data adds uncertainty to the model predictions, nevertheless the results show that the levels of inorganic iodine (i.e., I2, IBr, ICl) released from sea-ice through this mechanism could account for the observed IO concentrations during this timeframe. The model results

  1. Iron in sea ice: Review and new insights

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Lannuzel

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The discovery that melting sea ice can fertilize iron (Fe-depleted polar waters has recently fostered trace metal research efforts in sea ice. The aim of this review is to summarize and synthesize the current understanding of Fe biogeochemistry in sea ice. To do so, we compiled available data on particulate, dissolved, and total dissolvable Fe (PFe, DFe and TDFe, respectively from sea-ice studies from both polar regions and from sub-Arctic and northern Hemisphere temperate areas. Data analysis focused on a circum-Antarctic Fe dataset derived from 61 ice cores collected during 10 field expeditions carried out between 1997 and 2012 in the Southern Ocean. Our key findings are that 1 concentrations of all forms of Fe (PFe, DFe, TDFe are at least a magnitude larger in fast ice and pack ice than in typical Antarctic surface waters; 2 DFe, PFe and TDFe behave differently when plotted against sea-ice salinity, suggesting that their distributions in sea ice are driven by distinct, spatially and temporally decoupled processes; 3 DFe is actively extracted from seawater into growing sea ice; 4 fast ice generally has more Fe-bearing particles, a finding supported by the significant negative correlation observed between both PFe and TDFe concentrations in sea ice and water depth; 5 the Fe pool in sea ice is coupled to biota, as indicated by the positive correlations of PFe and TDFe with chlorophyll a and particulate organic carbon; and 6 the vast majority of DFe appears to be adsorbed onto something in sea ice. This review also addresses the role of sea ice as a reservoir of Fe and its role in seeding seasonally ice-covered waters. We discuss the pivotal role of organic ligands in controlling DFe concentrations in sea ice and highlight the uncertainties that remain regarding the mechanisms of Fe incorporation in sea ice.

  2. Sea ice biogeochemistry: a guide for modellers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Letizia Tedesco

    Full Text Available Sea ice is a fundamental component of the climate system and plays a key role in polar trophic food webs. Nonetheless sea ice biogeochemical dynamics at large temporal and spatial scales are still rarely described. Numerical models may potentially contribute integrating among sparse observations, but available models of sea ice biogeochemistry are still scarce, whether their relevance for properly describing the current and future state of the polar oceans has been recently addressed. A general methodology to develop a sea ice biogeochemical model is presented, deriving it from an existing validated model application by extension of generic pelagic biogeochemistry model parameterizations. The described methodology is flexible and considers different levels of ecosystem complexity and vertical representation, while adopting a strategy of coupling that ensures mass conservation. We show how to apply this methodology step by step by building an intermediate complexity model from a published realistic application and applying it to analyze theoretically a typical season of first-year sea ice in the Arctic, the one currently needing the most urgent understanding. The aim is to (1 introduce sea ice biogeochemistry and address its relevance to ocean modelers of polar regions, supporting them in adding a new sea ice component to their modelling framework for a more adequate representation of the sea ice-covered ocean ecosystem as a whole, and (2 extend our knowledge on the relevant controlling factors of sea ice algal production, showing that beyond the light and nutrient availability, the duration of the sea ice season may play a key-role shaping the algal production during the on going and upcoming projected changes.

  3. Improving Arctic sea ice edge forecasts by assimilating high horizontal resolution sea ice concentration data into the US Navy's ice forecast systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posey, P. G.; Metzger, E. J.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Hebert, D. A.; Allard, R. A.; Smedstad, O. M.; Phelps, M. W.; Fetterer, F.; Stewart, J. S.; Meier, W. N.; Helfrich, S. R.

    2015-08-01

    This study presents the improvement in ice edge error within the US Navy's operational sea ice forecast systems gained by assimilating high horizontal resolution satellite-derived ice concentration products. Since the late 1980's, the ice forecast systems have assimilated near real-time sea ice concentration derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI and then SSMIS). The resolution of the satellite-derived product was approximately the same as the previous operational ice forecast system (25 km). As the sea ice forecast model resolution increased over time, the need for higher horizontal resolution observational data grew. In 2013, a new Navy sea ice forecast system (Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System - ACNFS) went into operations with a horizontal resolution of ~ 3.5 km at the North Pole. A method of blending ice concentration observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR2) along with a sea ice mask produced by the National Ice Center (NIC) has been developed, resulting in an ice concentration product with very high spatial resolution. In this study, ACNFS was initialized with this newly developed high resolution blended ice concentration product. The daily ice edge locations from model hindcast simulations were compared against independent observed ice edge locations. ACNFS initialized using the high resolution blended ice concentration data product decreased predicted ice edge location error compared to the operational system that only assimilated SSMIS data. A second evaluation assimilating the new blended sea ice concentration product into the pre-operational Navy Global Ocean Forecast System 3.1 also showed a substantial improvement in ice edge location over a system using the SSMIS sea ice concentration product alone. This paper describes the technique used to create the blended sea ice concentration product and the significant improvements in ice edge forecasting in both of the

  4. Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central

  5. Decreased Expression of the Polarity Regulatory PAR Complex Predicts Poor Prognosis of the Patients with Colorectal Adenocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Kyung Yeo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Partitioning defective (Par proteins regulate cell polarity and differentiation. Par3, Par6β, and protein kinase Cζ (PKCζ, which are PAR complex members, have been shown to be associated with oncogenesis and progression. Herein, we report the expression pattern and clinical relevance of Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ in colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRAC. A total of 393 primary CRACs, 41 primary-metastatic CRAC pairs, 41 adenomas with low-grade dysplasia, and 41 nontumor colorectal tissue samples were examined by immunohistochemistry and Western blot assays for Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ protein expressions. The association Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ expressions and clinicopathologic factors, including patient survival, was evaluated. Primary CRACs and adenomas demonstrated higher levels of Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ than in nontumor colorectal epithelia. The expressions of Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ were higher in primary CRACs as compared to adenomas or in metastatic CRACs. Among primary CRACs, decreased Par3 expression was found to correlate with a high proliferation rate and poor histologic differentiation, decreased PKCζ expression was correlated with pathologic TNM stage (I-II vs III-IV and lymph node metastasis, and decreased Par6β and PKCζ expressions were correlated with shortened overall survivals. In metastatic CRACs, decreased PKCζ expression was correlated with a shortened metastasis-free survival. While increased Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ expressions were implicated in tumorigenesis, decreased expressions of Par3, Par6β, and PKCζ were found to be associated with worse clinicopathologic factors in CRAC. In particular, the results of our study suggest that PKCζ down-expression is an independent poor prognostic and metastatic factor for CRAC.

  6. Workshop on wave-ice interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wadhams, Peter; Squire, Vernon; Rottier, Philip; Liu, Antony; Dugan, John; Czipott, Peter; Shen, Hayley

    The subject of wave-ice interaction has been advanced in recent years by small groups of researchers working on a similar range of topics in widely separated geographic locations. Their recent studies inspired a workshop on wave-ice interaction held at the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, England, December 16-18, 1991, where theories in all aspects of the physics of wave-ice interaction were compared.Conveners of the workshop hoped that plans for future observational and theoretical work dealing with outstanding issues in a collaborative way would emerge. The workshop, organized by the Commission on Sea Ice of the International Association for Physical Sciences of the Ocean (IAPSO), was co-chaired by Vernon Squire, professor of mathematics and statistics at the University of Otago, New Zealand, and Peter Wadhams, director of the Scott Polar Research Institute. Participants attended from Britain, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and the United States.

  7. Radiative transfer in atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Z.; Stamnes, K.; Weeks, W.F. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Tsay, S.C. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Radiative energy is critical in controlling the heat and mass balance of sea ice, which significantly affects the polar climate. In the polar oceans, light transmission through the atmosphere and sea ice is essential to the growth of plankton and algae and, consequently, to the microbial community both in the ice and in the ocean. Therefore, the study of radiative transfer in the polar atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean system is of particular importance. Lacking a properly coupled radiative transfer model for the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, a consistent study of the radiative transfer in the polar atmosphere, snow, sea ice, and ocean system has not been undertaken before. The radiative transfer processes in the atmosphere and in the ice and ocean have been treated separately. Because the radiation processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean depend on each other, this separate treatment is inconsistent. To study the radiative interaction between the atmosphere, clouds, snow, sea ice, and ocean, a radiative transfer model with consistent treatment of radiation in the coupled system is needed and is under development.

  8. IceBridge: Bringing a Field Campaign Home

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, J.; Beck, J.; Bartholow, S.

    2015-12-01

    IceBridge, a six-year NASA mission, is the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. It will yield an unprecedented three-dimensional view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves and sea ice. These flights will provide a yearly, multi-instrument look at the behavior of the rapidly changing features of the Greenland and Antarctic ice. Data collected during IceBridge will help scientists bridge the gap in polar observations between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- in orbit since 2003 -- and ICESat-2, planned for 2017. ICESat stopped collecting science data in 2009, making IceBridge critical for ensuring a continuous series of observations. IceBridge will use airborne instruments to map Arctic and Antarctic areas once a year at a minimum, with new campaigns being developed during the Arctic melt season. IceBridge flights are conducted in the spring and summer for the Arctic and in the fall over Antarctica. Other smaller airborne surveys around the world are also part of the IceBridge campaign. IceBridge actively engages the public and educators through a variety of outlets ranging from communications strategies through social media outlets, to larger organized efforts such as PolarTREC. In field activities include blog posts, photo updates, in flight chat sessions, and more intensive live events to include google hangouts, where field team members can interact with the public during a scheduled broadcast. The IceBridge team provides scientists and other team members with the training and support to become communicators in their own right. There is an exciting new initiative where IceBridge will be collaborating with Undergraduate and Graduate students to integrate the next generation of scientists and communicators into the Science Teams. This will be explored through partnerships with institutions that are interested in mentoring through project based initiatives.

  9. Development of a Mobile Ice Nucleus Counter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kok, Gregory [Droplet Measurement Technologies, Boulder, CO (United States); Kulkarni, Gourihar [Droplet Measurement Technologies, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-07-10

    An ice nucleus counter has been constructed. The instrument uses built-in refrigeration systems for wall cooling. A cascade refrigeration system will allow the cold wall to operate as low as -70°C, and a single stage system can operate the warm wall at -45C. A unique optical particle counter has been constructed using polarization detection of the scattered light. This allows differentiation of the particles exiting the chamber to determine if they are ice or liquid.

  10. Plume Activity and Tidal Deformation on Enceladus Influenced by Faults and Variable Ice Shell Thickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Běhounková, Marie; Souček, Ondřej; Hron, Jaroslav; Čadek, Ondřej

    2017-09-01

    We investigated the effect of variations in ice shell thickness and of the tiger stripe fractures crossing Enceladus' south polar terrain on the moon's tidal deformation by performing finite element calculations in three-dimensional geometry. The combination of thinning in the polar region and the presence of faults has a synergistic effect that leads to an increase of both the displacement and stress in the south polar terrain by an order of magnitude compared to that of the traditional model with a uniform shell thickness and without faults. Assuming a simplified conductive heat transfer and neglecting the heat sources below the ice shell, we computed the global heat budget of the ice shell. For the inelastic properties of the shell described by a Maxwell viscoelastic model, we show that unrealistically low average viscosity of the order of 10 13 Pa s is necessary for preserving the volume of the ocean, suggesting the important role of the heat sources in the deep interior. Similarly, low viscosity is required to predict the observed delay of the plume activity, which hints at other delaying mechanisms than just the viscoelasticity of the ice shell. The presence of faults results in large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of geysering activity compared to the traditional models without faults. Our model contributes to understanding the physical mechanisms that control the fault activity, and it provides potentially useful information for future missions that will sample the plume for evidence of life. Key Words: Enceladus-Tidal deformation-Faults-Variable ice shell thickness-Tidal heating-Plume activity and timing. Astrobiology 17, 941-954.

  11. The Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Low Cloud Properties and Radiative Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    The Arctic is one of the most climatically sensitive regions of the Earth. Climate models robustly project the Arctic to warm 2-3 times faster than the global mean surface temperature, termed polar warming amplification (PWA), but also display the widest range of surface temperature projections in this region. The response of the Arctic to increased CO2 modulates the response in tropical and extra-tropical regions through teleconnections in the atmospheric circulation. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the northern mid-latitudes, for example, has been linked to the change in the background equator-to-pole temperature gradient implied by PWA. Understanding the Arctic climate system is therefore important for predicting global climate change. The ice albedo feedback is the primary mechanism driving PWA, however cloud and dynamical feedbacks significantly contribute. These feedback mechanisms, however, do not operate independently. How do clouds respond to variations in sea ice? This critical question is addressed by combining sea ice, cloud, and radiation observations from satellites, including CERES, CloudSAT, CALIPSO, MODIS, and microwave radiometers, to investigate sea ice-cloud interactions at the interannual timescale in the Arctic. Cloud characteristics are strongly tied to the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic state. Therefore, the sensitivity of Arctic cloud characteristics, vertical distribution and optical properties, to sea ice anomalies is computed within atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic regimes. Results indicate that the cloud response to changes in sea ice concentration differs significantly between atmospheric state regimes. This suggests that (1) the atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics and (2) the characteristics of the marginal ice zone are important for determining the seasonal forcing by cloud on sea ice variability.

  12. Grain boundary melting in ice

    OpenAIRE

    Thomson, E. S.; Hansen-Goos, Hendrik; Wilen, L. A.; Wettlaufer, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    We describe an optical scattering study of grain boundary premelting in water ice. Ubiquitous long ranged attractive polarization forces act to suppress grain boundary melting whereas repulsive forces originating in screened Coulomb interactions and classical colligative effects enhance it. The liquid enhancing effects can be manipulated by adding dopant ions to the system. For all measured grain boundaries this leads to increasing premelted film thickness with increasing electrolyte concentr...

  13. A Comprehensive Modeling Approach Towards Understanding and Prediction of the Alaskan Coastal System Response to Changes in an Ice-diminished Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    led to reduced ice cover in the Arctic, increased water temperatures, and perhaps increased desertification of adjacent lands, i.e. the Gobi desert...North Pacific Ocean, after deposition episodes of iron- rich dust from the Gobi Desert. During NASA satellite imagery of an eastward propagation of Gobi ...underneath aerosol plumes of iron-rich dust from the Gobi Desert. During this same time period, the areal extent of summer Arctic sea ice cover had

  14. Ice cores and palaeoclimate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krogh Andersen, K.; Ditlevsen, P.; Steffensen, J.P.

    2001-01-01

    warming of the past century solely to the influence of mankind. The climate changes recorded by meteorological observations since 1875 are not unique in climate history. Taking into account that the period around 1875 appears to have been one of the coldest during the Holocene makes it even more difficult. Although the present situation is different from the past, we still need to understand past climatic changes in order to not only assess the effects of human activity but also to make better predictions of possible future natural climatic changes. The ice core community will continue to try to unravel the story of plast climate changes - this is our challenge. (LN)

  15. An unusual early Holocene diatom event north of the Getz Ice Shelf (Amundsen Sea): Implications for West Antarctic Ice Sheet development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esper, O.; Gersonde, R.; Hillenbrand, C.; Kuhn, G.; Smith, J.

    2011-12-01

    Modern global change affects not only the polar north but also, and to increasing extent, the southern high latitudes, especially the Antarctic regions covered by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Consequently, knowledge of the mechanisms controlling past WAIS dynamics and WAIS behaviour at the last deglaciation is critical to predict its development in a future warming world. Geological and palaeobiological information from major drainage areas of the WAIS, like the Amundsen Sea Embayment, shed light on the history of the WAIS glaciers. Sediment records obtained from a deep inner shelf basin north of Getz Ice Shelf document a deglacial warming in three phases. Above a glacial diamicton and a sediment package barren of microfossils that document sediment deposition by grounded ice and below an ice shelf or perennial sea ice cover (possibly fast ice), respectively, a sediment section with diatom assemblages dominated by sea ice taxa indicates ice shelf retreat and seasonal ice-free conditions. This conclusion is supported by diatom-based summer temperature reconstructions. The early retreat was followed by a phase, when exceptional diatom ooze was deposited around 12,500 cal. years B.P. [1]. Microscopical inspection of this ooze revealed excellent preservation of diatom frustules of the species Corethron pennatum together with vegetative Chaetoceros, thus an assemblage usually not preserved in the sedimentary record. Sediments succeeding this section contain diatom assemblages indicating rather constant Holocene cold water conditions with seasonal sea ice. The deposition of the diatom ooze can be related to changes in hydrographic conditions including strong advection of nutrients. However, sediment focussing in the partly steep inner shelf basins cannot be excluded as a factor enhancing the thickness of the ooze deposits. It is not only the presence of the diatom ooze but also the exceptional preservation and the species composition of the diatom assemblage

  16. Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

    2015-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

  17. Perturbative QCD predictions for the small x behaviour of unpolarized and polarized deep inelastic scattering structure functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwiecinski, J.

    1996-01-01

    The perturbative QCD predictions for the small x behaviour of the nucleon structure functions F 2L (x,Q 2 ) and g 1 (x,Q 2 ) are summarized. The importance of the double logarithmic terms for the small x behaviour of the spin structure function g 1 (x,Q 2 ) is emphasized. These terms correspond to the contributions containing the leading powers of α s ln 2 (1/x) at each order of the perturbative expansion. In the non-singlet case they can be approximately accounted for by the ladder diagrams with quark (antiquark) exchange. We solve the corresponding integral equation with the running coupling effects taken into account and present estimate of the effective slope controlling the small x behaviour of the non-singlet spin structure function g 1 (x,Q 2 ) of a nucleon. (author)

  18. First modulation of high-frequency polar mesospheric summer echoes by radio heating of the ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, A.; Mahmoudian, A.; Pinedo, H.; La Hoz, C.; Rietveld, M. T.; Scales, W. A.; Kosch, M. J.

    2014-08-01

    The first high-frequency (HF, 8 MHz) observations of the modulation of polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) by artificial radio heating of the ionosphere are presented and compared to observations at 224 MHz and model predictions. The experiments were performed at the European Incoherent Scatter facility in northern Norway. It is shown that model results are in qualitative and partial quantitative agreement with the observations, supporting the prediction that with certain ranges of ice particle radii and concentration, PMSE at HF radar wavelengths can be enhanced by heating due to the dominance of dust charging over plasma diffusion.

  19. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution as an Indicator of Arctic Climate Change - Synthesis of Model Results and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslowski, Wieslaw; Clement Kinney, Jaclyn; Jakacki, Jaromir; Osinski, Robert; Zwally, Jay

    2010-05-01

    The Arctic region is an integral part of the Earth's climate system through its influence on global surface energy and moisture fluxes and on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Within the Arctic, its sea ice cover is possibly the most sensitive indicator of the polar amplified global warming and of the state of Arctic climate system as a whole. Hence changes in Arctic climate and the decline of multi-year sea ice cover have significant ramifications to the entire pan-Arctic region and beyond. Having the recorded average global surface temperature about 0.54°C (0.96°F) above the 20th Century average the decade of 2000-2009 has been the warmest of the 130-year record, with the maximum positive temperatures anomalies in the northern high latitude regions. Satellite records of the Arctic sea ice show a decreasing and accelerating trend in ice extent and concentration since the late 1979, as a result of the global warming. More importantly there is growing evidence that the Arctic sea ice thickness and volume have been decreasing at even faster rate. This means that our knowledge of the Arctic sea ice melt might be significantly biased due to the interpretation of 2-dimensional sea ice extent / concentration records only instead of ice thickness and volume. The rates of recent ice thickness and volume melt derived from our pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model results combined with recent remotely sensed data suggest an accelerating negative trend. This trend is robust and lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic not only might but it is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future. However, global climate models vary widely in their predictions of warming and the rate of Arctic ice melt, suggesting it may take anywhere from a couple of decades to more than a century to melt most of the summer sea ice cover. Also many regional models are limited in their representation of the rapid Arctic sea ice thinning and volume loss. The inability of models

  20. Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

    2013-01-01

    Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

  1. The Energetic Value of Land-Based Foods in Western Hudson Bay and Their Potential to Alleviate Energy Deficits of Starving Adult Male Polar Bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormezano, Linda J; Rockwell, Robert F

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to expand the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay and when it grows to 180 days, 28-48% of adult male polar bears are projected to starve unless nutritional deficits can be offset by foods consumed on land. We updated a dynamic energy budget model developed by Molnar et al. to allow influx of additional energy from novel terrestrial foods (lesser snow geese, eggs, caribou) that polar bears currently consume as part of a mixed diet while on land. We calculated the units of each prey, alone and in combination, needed to alleviate these lethal energy deficits under conditions of resting or limited movement (2 km d-1) prior to starvation. We further considered the total energy available from each sex and age class of each animal prey over the period they would overlap land-bound polar bears and calculated the maximum number of starving adult males that could be sustained on each food during the ice-free season. Our results suggest that the net energy from land-based food, after subtracting costs of limited movement to obtain it, could eliminate all projected nutritional deficits of starving adult male polar bears and likely other demographic groups as well. The hunting tactics employed, success rates as well as behavior and abundance of each prey will determine the realized energetic values for individual polar bears. Although climate change may cause a phenological mismatch between polar bears and their historical ice-based prey, it may simultaneously yield a new match with certain land-based foods. If polar bears can transition their foraging behavior to effectively exploit these resources, predictions for starvation-related mortality may be overestimated for western Hudson Bay. We also discuss potential complications with stable-carbon isotope studies to evaluate utilization of land-based foods by polar bears including metabolic effects of capture-related stress and consuming a mixed diet.

  2. The Energetic Value of Land-Based Foods in Western Hudson Bay and Their Potential to Alleviate Energy Deficits of Starving Adult Male Polar Bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Gormezano

    Full Text Available Climate change is predicted to expand the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay and when it grows to 180 days, 28-48% of adult male polar bears are projected to starve unless nutritional deficits can be offset by foods consumed on land. We updated a dynamic energy budget model developed by Molnar et al. to allow influx of additional energy from novel terrestrial foods (lesser snow geese, eggs, caribou that polar bears currently consume as part of a mixed diet while on land. We calculated the units of each prey, alone and in combination, needed to alleviate these lethal energy deficits under conditions of resting or limited movement (2 km d-1 prior to starvation. We further considered the total energy available from each sex and age class of each animal prey over the period they would overlap land-bound polar bears and calculated the maximum number of starving adult males that could be sustained on each food during the ice-free season. Our results suggest that the net energy from land-based food, after subtracting costs of limited movement to obtain it, could eliminate all projected nutritional deficits of starving adult male polar bears and likely other demographic groups as well. The hunting tactics employed, success rates as well as behavior and abundance of each prey will determine the realized energetic values for individual polar bears. Although climate change may cause a phenological mismatch between polar bears and their historical ice-based prey, it may simultaneously yield a new match with certain land-based foods. If polar bears can transition their foraging behavior to effectively exploit these resources, predictions for starvation-related mortality may be overestimated for western Hudson Bay. We also discuss potential complications with stable-carbon isotope studies to evaluate utilization of land-based foods by polar bears including metabolic effects of capture-related stress and consuming a mixed diet.

  3. Arctic tides from GPS on sea ice

    OpenAIRE

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    2012-01-01

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models which use only astronomical data perform less accurately in the polar regions. This study presents a kinematic processing of Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys placed on sea-ice at five different sites north of Greenland for the study of sea level height and tidal analysis to improve tidal models in the Central Arctic....

  4. Arctic tides from GPS on sea ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

    The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models which use only astronomical data perform less accurately in the polar regions. This study presents a kinematic processing...... of Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys placed on sea-ice at five different sites north of Greenland for the study of sea level height and tidal analysis to improve tidal models in the Central Arctic. The GPS measurements are compared with the Arctic tidal model AOTIM-5, which assimilates tide...

  5. Allan Hills Pleistocene Ice Project (PIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbatov, A.; Brook, E.; Campbell, S. W.; Conway, H.; Dunbar, N. W.; Higgins, J. A.; Iverson, N. A.; Kehrl, L. M.; McIntosh, W. C.; Spaulding, N. E.; Yan, Y.; Mayewski, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    A major international effort to identify at least 1.5 Ma old ice for paleoclimate reconstructions has successfully resulted in the selection of several potential drill sites in East Antarctica. At this point it is indisputable that the Antarctic ice sheet captures a continuous envinronmental record of the Earth that spans the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT). In addition to traditional ice coring approaches, the oldest ice can also be recovered in Antarctic Blue Ice Areas (BIA). We have already successfully demonstrated that the Allan Hills (AH) BIA captures a regional climate signal and robust record of 1Ma atmosphere that can be studied with a relatively uncomplicated logistical imprint and essentially unlimited sampling volume. The attractiveness of unlimited sampling of known age ice is the basis for the "ice park" concept proposed earlier by our research team. The idea is that, once the age of ice exposed along the flow line at the surface of BIA is mapped, it could be sampled for numerous research projects as needed. Here we propose an intermediate ( 1,150 m deep) ice core drill site, located only 240 km away from McMurdo base that will help to develop a, continuous, high quality regional paleoclimate record that is at least 1Ma old. We will introduce and discuss the glaciological settings, paleoclimate signals and possible limitations and advantages of the 1 Ma AH BIA regional paleoclimate record. The research was funded by NSF Division of Polar Programs.

  6. Linking scales in sea ice mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Jérôme; Dansereau, Véronique

    2017-02-01

    Mechanics plays a key role in the evolution of the sea ice cover through its control on drift, on momentum and thermal energy exchanges between the polar oceans and the atmosphere along cracks and faults, and on ice thickness distribution through opening and ridging processes. At the local scale, a significant variability of the mechanical strength is associated with the microstructural heterogeneity of saline ice, however characterized by a small correlation length, below the ice thickness scale. Conversely, the sea ice mechanical fields (velocity, strain and stress) are characterized by long-ranged (more than 1000 km) and long-lasting (approx. few months) correlations. The associated space and time scaling laws are the signature of the brittle character of sea ice mechanics, with deformation resulting from a multi-scale accumulation of episodic fracturing and faulting events. To translate the short-range-correlated disorder on strength into long-range-correlated mechanical fields, several key ingredients are identified: long-ranged elastic interactions, slow driving conditions, a slow viscous-like relaxation of elastic stresses and a restoring/healing mechanism. These ingredients constrained the development of a new continuum mechanics modelling framework for the sea ice cover, called Maxwell-elasto-brittle. Idealized simulations without advection demonstrate that this rheological framework reproduces the main characteristics of sea ice mechanics, including anisotropy, spatial localization and intermittency, as well as the associated scaling laws. This article is part of the themed issue 'Microdynamics of ice'.

  7. Effect of vorticity on polycrystalline ice deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorens, Maria-Gema; Griera, Albert; Steinbach, Florian; Bons, Paul D.; Gomez-Rivas, Enrique; Jansen, Daniela; Lebensohn, Ricardo A.; Weikusat, Ilka

    2017-04-01

    Understanding ice sheet dynamics requires a good knowledge of how dynamic recrystallisation controls ice microstructures and rheology at different boundary conditions. In polar ice sheets, pure shear flattening typically occurs at the top of the sheets, while simple shearing dominates near their base. We present a series of two-dimensional microdynamic numerical simulations that couple ice deformation with dynamic recrystallisation of various intensities, paying special attention to the effect of boundary conditions. The viscoplastic full-field numerical modelling approach (VPFFT) (Lebensohn, 2001) is used to calculate the response of a polycrystalline aggregate that deforms purely by dislocation glide. This code is coupled with the ELLE microstructural modelling platform that includes recrystallisation in the aggregate by intracrystalline recovery, nucleation by polygonisation, as well as grain boundary migration driven by the reduction of surface and strain energies (Llorens et al., 2016a, 2016b, 2017). The results reveal that regardless the amount of DRX and ice flow a single c-axes maximum develops all simulations. This maximum is oriented approximately parallel to the maximum finite shortening direction and rotates in simple shear towards the normal to the shear plane. This leads to a distinctly different behaviour in pure and simple shear. In pure shear, the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) and shape-preferred orientation (SPO) are increasingly unfavourable for deformation, leading to hardening and an increased activity of non-basal slip. The opposite happens in simple shear, where the imposed vorticity causes rotation of the LPO and SPO to a favourable orientation, leading to strain softening. An increase of recrystallisation enhances the activity of the non-basal slip, due to the reduction of deformation localisation. In pure shear conditions, the pyramidal slip activity is thus even more enhanced and can become higher than the basal-slip activity. Our

  8. Polarization developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prescott, C.Y.

    1993-07-01

    Recent developments in laser-driven photoemission sources of polarized electrons have made prospects for highly polarized electron beams in a future linear collider very promising. This talk discusses the experiences with the SLC polarized electron source, the recent progress with research into gallium arsenide and strained gallium arsenide as a photocathode material, and the suitability of these cathode materials for a future linear collider based on the parameters of the several linear collider designs that exist

  9. Caterpillar-like ice motion in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryser, C.; Lüthi, M. P.; Andrews, L. C.; Catania, G. A.; Funk, M.; Hawley, R.; Hoffman, M.; Neumann, T. A.

    2014-10-01

    Current understanding of ice dynamics predicts that increasing availability and variability of meltwater will have an impact on basal motion and therefore on the evolution and future behavior of the Greenland ice sheet. We present measurements of ice deformation, subglacial water pressure, and surface velocity that show periodic and episodic variations on several time scales (seasonal, multiday, and diurnal). These variations, observed with GPS and sensors at different depths throughout the ice column, are not synchronous but show delayed responses of ice deformation with increasing depth and basal water pressure in antiphase with surface velocity. With the help of a Full-Stokes ice flow model, these observations are explained as ice motion in a caterpillar-like fashion. Caused by patches of different basal slipperiness, horizontal stress transfer through the stiff central part of the ice body leads to spatially varying surface velocities and ice deformation patterns. Variation of this basal slipperiness induces characteristic patterns of ice deformation variability that explain the observed behavior. Ice flow in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet is therefore controlled by activation of basal patches by varying slipperiness in the course of a melt season, leading to caterpillar-like ice motion superposed on the classical shear deformation.

  10. Sea Ice Concentration and Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2014-01-01

    Among the most seasonal and most dynamic parameters on the surface of the Earth is sea ice which at any one time covers about 3-6% of the planet. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea ice grows in extent from about 6 x 10(exp 6) sq km to 16 x 10(exp 6) sq km, while in the Southern Hemisphere, it grows from about 3 x 10(exp 6) sq km to about 19 x 10(exp 6) sq km (Comiso, 2010; Gloersen et al., 1992). Sea ice is up to about 2-3 m thick in the Northern Hemisphere and about 1 m thick in the Southern Hemisphere (Wadhams, 2002), and compared to the average ocean depth of about 3 km, it is a relatively thin, fragile sheet that can break due to waves and winds or melt due to upwelling of warm water. Being constantly advected by winds, waves, and currents, sea ice is very dynamic and usually follows the directions of the many gyres in the polar regions. Despite its vast expanse, the sea ice cover was previously left largely unstudied and it was only in recent years that we have understood its true impact and significance as related to the Earths climate, the oceans, and marine life.

  11. Modeling the Fracture of Ice Sheets on Parallel Computers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waisman, Haim [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Tuminaro, Ray [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-10-10

    The objective of this project was to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. This objective was achieved by developing novel physics based models for ice, novel numerical tools to enable the modeling of the physics and by collaboration with the ice community experts. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. To this end, our research findings through this project offers significant advancement to the field and closes a large gap of knowledge in understanding and modeling the fracture of ice sheets in the polar regions. Thus, we believe that our objective has been achieved and our research accomplishments are significant. This is corroborated through a set of published papers, posters and presentations at technical conferences in the field. In particular significant progress has been made in the mechanics of ice, fracture of ice sheets and ice shelves in polar regions and sophisticated numerical methods that enable the solution of the physics in an efficient way.

  12. Biological darkening of ice: measurements and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, J.; Tedstone, A.; Hodson, A. J.; Williamson, C.; McCutcheon, J.; Tranter, M.

    2017-12-01

    Biological growth occurs in the ablation zones of glaciers and ice sheets, resulting in a reduction of the ice albedo. Given the critical role of albedo in determining the surface energy balance - and therefore melt rate - of a mass of ice, understanding and quantifying biological albedo reduction is fundamental to predicting future ice dynamics. This may be particularly important on ablating ice on the western Greenland Ice Sheet, where a `dark ice zone' of varying spatial extent may be partly or mostly explained by biological growth. However, our ability to quantify and predict the contribution of biological impurities to the overall energy balance of glacial systems is currently limited by a lack of understanding of the mechanisms of biological darkening, difficulties in determining the spatial extent of biological impurities and uncertainty in isolating biological from non-biological albedo reduction. Here, new spectral measurements are presented for ice containing varying amounts of biological impurities which were obtained on the ground using a field spectrometer and from the air using a purpose built UAV on the Greenland Ice Sheet in summer 2016 and 2017. Distinctive spectral signatures are identified and used to map the spatial extent of algal blooms on the ice surface. A new radiative transfer scheme (BioSNICAR) for predicting the albedo of snow or ice discolored by microbial life is also described, offering insight into the mechanisms of biological darkening. Together, these demonstrate the critical role played by pigmented algae in darkening ice surfaces and provide a framework for predicting biological albedo reduction in future climate scenarios.

  13. Sea ice - Multiyear cycles and white ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledley, T. S.

    1985-01-01

    The multiyear thickness cycles represent one of the interesting features of the sea ice studies performed by Semtner (1976) and Washington et al. (1976) with simple thermodynamic models of sea ice. In the present article, a description is given of results which show that the insulating effect of snow on the surface of the sea ice is important in producing these multiyear cycles given the physics included in the model. However, when the formation of white ice is included, the cycles almost disappear. White ice is the ice which forms at the snow-ice interface when the snow layer becomes thick enough to depress the ice below the water level. Water infiltrates the snow by coming through the ice at leads and generally freezes there, forming white ice.

  14. Ross Sea Polynyas: Response of Ice Concentration Retrievals to Large Areas of Thin Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.; Martin, S.; Drucker, R.

    2007-01-01

    For a 3-month period between May and July of 2005, we examine the response of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) Enhanced NASA Team 2 (NT2) and AMSR-E Bootstrap (ABA) ice concentration algorithms to large areas of thin ice of the Ross Sea polynyas. Coincident Envisat Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) coverage of the region during this period offers a detailed look at the development of the polynyas within several hundred kilometers of the ice front. The high-resolution imagery and derived ice motion fields show bands of polynya ice, covering up to approximately 105 km(sup 2) of the Ross Sea, that are associated with wind-forced advection. In this study, ice thickness from AMSR-E 36 GHz polarization information serves as the basis for examination of the response. The quality of the thickness of newly formed sea ice (<10 cm) from AMSR-E is first assessed with thickness estimates derived from ice surface temperatures from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The effect of large areas of thin ice in lowering the ice concentration estimates from both NT2/ABA approaches is clearly demonstrated. Results show relatively robust relationships between retrieved ice concentrations and thin ice thickness estimates that differ between the two algorithms. These relationships define the approximate spatial coincidence of ice concentration and thickness isopleths. Using the 83% (ABA) and 91% (NT2) isopleths as polynya boundaries, we show that the computed coverage compares well with that using the estimated 10-cm thickness contour. The thin ice response characterized here suggests that in regions with polynyas, the retrieval results could be used to provide useful geophysical information, namely thickness and coverage.

  15. Diversity of Holocene life forms in fossil glacier ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, E.; Hansen, Anders J.; Christensen, B.

    1999-01-01

    Studies of biotic remains of polar ice caps have been limited to morphological identification of plant pollen and spores. By using sensitive molecular techniques, we now demonstrate a much greater range of detectable organisms; from 2000- and 4000-year-old ice-core samples, we obtained and charac...... for future studies of deep ice cores and yielding valuable information about ancient communities and their change over time. Udgivelsesdato: 1999 Jul 6...

  16. Diversity of Holocene life forms in fossil glacier ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willerslev, E.; Hansen, Anders J.; Christensen, B.

    1999-01-01

    Studies of biotic remains of polar ice caps have been limited to morphological identification of plant pollen and spores. By using sensitive molecular techniques, we now demonstrate a much greater range of detectable organisms; from 2000- and 4000-year-old ice-core samples, we obtained and charac...

  17. Satellite-derived ice data sets no. 2: Arctic monthly average microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations, 1973-1976

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, C. L.; Comiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

    1987-01-01

    A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

  18. A Comparison of Sea Ice Type, Sea Ice Temperature, and Snow Thickness Distributions in the Arctic Seasonal Ice Zones with the DMSP SSM/I

    Science.gov (United States)

    St.Germain, Karen; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Markus, Thorsten

    1997-01-01

    Global climate studies have shown that sea ice is a critical component in the global climate system through its effect on the ocean and atmosphere, and on the earth's radiation balance. Polar energy studies have further shown that the distribution of thin ice and open water largely controls the distribution of surface heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere within the winter Arctic ice pack. The thickness of the ice, the depth of snow on the ice, and the temperature profile of the snow/ice composite are all important parameters in calculating surface heat fluxes. In recent years, researchers have used various combinations of DMSP SSMI channels to independently estimate the thin ice type (which is related to ice thickness), the thin ice temperature, and the depth of snow on the ice. In each case validation efforts provided encouraging results, but taken individually each algorithm gives only one piece of the information necessary to compute the energy fluxes through the ice and snow. In this paper we present a comparison of the results from each of these algorithms to provide a more comprehensive picture of the seasonal ice zone using passive microwave observations.

  19. Polarization, political

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojcieszak, M.; Mazzoleni, G.; Barnhurst, K.G.; Ikeda, K.; Maia, R.C.M.; Wessler, H.

    2015-01-01

    Polarization has been studied in three different forms: on a social, group, and individual level. This entry first focuses on the undisputed phenomenon of elite polarization (i.e., increasing adherence of policy positions among the elites) and also outlines different approaches to assessing mass

  20. MIZEX. A Program for Mesoscale Air-Ice-Ocean Interaction Experiments in Arctic Marginal Ice Zones. I. Research Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    crucial re- including BESEX ( Kondratiev et al., 1975), gion in which the polar air, ice and water masses MIZPAC (Paquette and Bourke, 1979), NORSEX...edge. ( Kondratiev et al., 1975; Overland, 1980). During I able 2 surrirrari/es flie breakdowni of’ work the November- February ice growth period, the

  1. South Polar Region of Mars: Topography and Geology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, P. M.; Moore, J. M.

    1999-01-01

    The polar layered deposits of Mars represent potentially important volatile reservoirs and tracers for the planet's geologically recent climate history. Unlike the north polar cap, the uppermost surface of the bright residual south polar deposit is probably composed of carbon dioxide ice. It is unknown whether this ice extends through the entire thickness of the deposit. The Mars Polar Lander (MPL), launched in January 1999, is due to arrive in December 1999 to search for water and carbon dioxide on layered deposits near the south pole (SP) of Mars. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  2. Polarization holography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nikolova, L.; Ramanujam, P.S.

    Current research into holography is concerned with applications in optically storing, retrieving, and processing information. Polarization holography has many unique properties compared to conventional holography. It gives results in high efficiency, achromaticity, and special polarization...... properties. This books reviews the research carried out in this field over the last 15 years. The authors provide basic concepts in polarization and the propagation of light through anisotropic materials, before presenting a sound theoretical basis for polarization holography. The fabrication...... and characterization of azobenzene based materials, which remain the most efficient for the purpose, is described in detail. This is followed by a description of other materials that are used in polarization holography. An in-depth description of various applications, including display holography and optical storage...

  3. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    rising at 5 ±4 mm/yr; Palmer Land is observed to be rising at 3 ±3 mm/yr. The predictions of the ICE-5G (VM2) model and those of the postglacial rebound component of the model of Simons, Ivins, and James [2010] had predicted uplift to be significantly faster than observed in this region, as previously documented in Argus et al [2011]. From a global perspective the new ICE-6G (VM5a) model is also a further significant improvement on the previous ICE-5G (VM2) model in that the degree two and order one components of its predicted time dependence of geoid height are tightly constrained by the recent inferences of Roy and Peltier [2011] of the post-GRACE-launch values of the speed and direction of true polar wander and the non-tidal acceleration of the lod. .

  4. Long term observation of low altitude atmosphere by high precision polarization lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiina, Tatsuo; Noguchi, Kazuo; Fukuchi, Tetsuo

    2011-11-01

    Prediction of weather disaster such as heavy rain and light strike is an earnest desire. Successive monitoring of the low altitude atmosphere is important to predict it. The weather disaster often befalls with a steep change in a local area. It is hard for usual meteorological equipments to capture and alert it speedily. We have been developed the near range lidar to capture and analyze the low altitude atmosphere. In this study, high precision polarization lidar was developed to observe the low altitude atmosphere. This lidar has the high extinction ratio of polarization of >30dB to detect the small polarization change of the atmosphere. The change of the polarization in the atmosphere leads to the detection of the depolarization effect and the Faraday effect, which are caused by ice-crystals and lightning discharge, respectively. As the lidar optics is "inline" type, which means common use of optics for transmitter and receiver, it can observe the near range echo with the narrow field of view. The long-term observation was accomplished at low elevation angle. It aims to monitor the low altitude atmosphere under the cloud base and capture its spatial distribution and convection process. In the viewpoint of polarization, the ice-crystals' flow and concentration change of the aerosols are monitored. The observation has been continued in the cloudy and rainy days. The thunder cloud is also a target. In this report, the system specification is explained to clear the potential and the aims. The several observation data including the long-term observation will be shown with the consideration of polarization analysis.

  5. Identifying deformation mechanisms in the NEEM ice core using EBSD measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuiper, Ernst-Jan; Weikusat, Ilka; Drury, Martyn R.; Pennock, Gill M.; de Winter, Matthijs D. A.

    2015-04-01

    Deformation of ice in continental sized ice sheets determines the flow behavior of ice towards the sea. Basal dislocation glide is assumed to be the dominant deformation mechanism in the creep deformation of natural ice, but non-basal glide is active as well. Knowledge of what types of deformation mechanisms are active in polar ice is critical in predicting the response of ice sheets in future warmer climates and its contribution to sea level rise, because the activity of deformation mechanisms depends critically on deformation conditions (such as temperature) as well as on the material properties (such as grain size). One of the methods to study the deformation mechanisms in natural materials is Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD). We obtained ca. 50 EBSD maps of five different depths from a Greenlandic ice core (NEEM). The step size varied between 8 and 25 micron depending on the size of the deformation features. The size of the maps varied from 2000 to 10000 grid point. Indexing rates were up to 95%, partially by saving and reanalyzing the EBSP patterns. With this method we can characterize subgrain boundaries and determine the lattice rotation configurations of each individual subgrain. Combining these observations with arrangement/geometry of subgrain boundaries the dislocation types can be determined, which form these boundaries. Three main types of subgrain boundaries have been recognized in Antarctic (EDML) ice core¹². Here, we present the first results obtained from EBSD measurements performed on the NEEM ice core samples from the last glacial period, focusing on the relevance of dislocation activity of the possible slip systems. Preliminary results show that all three subgrain types, recognized in the EDML core, occur in the NEEM samples. In addition to the classical boundaries made up of basal dislocations, subgrain boundaries made of non-basal dislocations are also common. ¹Weikusat, I.; de Winter, D. A. M.; Pennock, G. M.; Hayles, M

  6. ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research

  7. Numerical prediction with `DMDF` model of pack ice motion in the Okhotsk sea; DMDF model ni yoru Okhotsk kai ryuhyo undo no suchi yosoku

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuzawa, T.; Yamaguchi, H.; Suzuki, S.; Kato, H. [The University of Tokyo (Japan); Rheem, C. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Institute of Industrial Science

    1996-12-31

    A simulation was performed on pack ice motion in the Okhotsk Sea in winter by using the distributed mass/discrete floe (DMDF) method that carries out a dynamic numerical calculation of pack ice motion. Several kinds of cases were compared and calculated. As a result, effectiveness was verified on a DMDF model with boundary conditions which are relatively large in range and complex in nature. At the same time, it was possible to estimate part of the characteristics of pack ice motion in this sea area. The numerical calculation used the floe distribution on February 1, 1994 as the initial condition, and performed calculations on conditions until February 8 giving considerations on meteorological and hydrographic data. As a result, the calculation result showed the same movements as those in the observed ice conditions. If an ocean current is hypothesized steady, the calculation is affected more than necessarily by the ocean current, and it derives a result departed from reality. From these findings, it was elucidated that floe motions are governed mainly by wind; and in making a numerical modeling, a consideration including composition with the ocean current is necessary. Shear stress of wind has its acting direction displaced from the wind direction because of effect of the Corioli`s force. 6 refs., 13 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Observed ices in the Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Roger N.; Grundy, Will; Carlson, Robert R.; Noll, Keith; Gudipati, Murthy; Castillo-Rogez, Julie C.

    2013-01-01

    Ices have been detected and mapped on the Earth and all planets and/or their satellites further from the sun. Water ice is the most common frozen volatile observed and is also unambiguously detected or inferred in every planet and/or their moon(s) except Venus. Carbon dioxide is also extensively found in all systems beyond the Earth except Pluto although it sometimes appears to be trapped rather than as an ice on some objects. The largest deposits of carbon dioxide ice is on Mars. Sulfur dioxide ice is found in the Jupiter system. Nitrogen and methane ices are common beyond the Uranian system. Saturn’s moon Titan probably has the most complex active chemistry involving ices, with benzene (C6H6) and many tentative or inferred compounds including ices of Cyanoacetylene (HC3N), Toluene (C7H8), Cyanogen (C2N2), Acetonitrile (CH3CN), H2O, CO2, and NH3. Confirming compounds on Titan is hampered by its thick smoggy atmosphere. Ammonia was predicted on many icy moons but is notably absent among the definitively detected ices with the possible exception of Enceladus. Comets, storehouses of many compounds that could exist as ices in their nuclei, have only had small amounts of water ice definitively detected on their surfaces. Only one asteroid has had a direct detection of surface water ice, although its presence can be inferred in others. This chapter reviews some of the properties of ices that lead to their detection, and surveys the ices that have been observed on solid surfaces throughout the Solar System.

  9. Polar Bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Douglas, David C.; Reynolds, Patricia E.; Rhode, E.B.

    2002-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and petroleum extraction and related human activities such as shipping road-building, and seismic testing (Stirling 1990).Little was known at the start of this project about how polar bears move about in their environment, and although it was understood that many bears travel across political borders, the boundaries of populations had not been delineated (Amstrup 1986, Amstrup et al. 1986, Amstrup and DeMaster 1988, Garner et al. 1994, Amstrup 1995, Amstrup et al. 1995, Amstrup 2000).As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, managers must know the sizes and distributions of the polar bear populations. Resource managers also need reliable estimates of breeding rates, reproductive intervals, litter sizes, and survival of young and adults.Our objectives for this research were 1) to determine the seasonal and annual movements of polar bears in the Beaufort Sea, 2) to define the boundaries of the population(s) using this region, 3) to determine the size and status of the Beaufort Sea polar bear population, and 4) to establish reproduction and survival rates (Amstrup 2000).

  10. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Gagliardini

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

  11. Mercury biomagnification in polar bears ( Ursus maritimus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, T. W.; Blum, J. D.; Xie, Z.; Hren, M.; Chamberlain, C. P.

    2007-12-01

    Mercury biomagnification occurs in a variety of ecosystems resulting in greater potential for toxicological effects in higher-level trophic feeders. However, Hg transport pathways through different foodweb channels are not well known, particularly in high-latitude systems affected by atmospheric Hg deposition associated with snow and ice. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios and Hg concentrations determined for 26 late 19th and early 20th century polar bear hair specimens collected from cataloged museum collections elucidate relationships between high latitude marine foodweb structure and Hg transport pathways. Nitrogen and carbon isotopic compositions suggest that polar bears derive nutrition from both open water (pelagic) and ice associated (sympagic) foodweb channels. Correlation between Hg concentrations and nitrogen isotope compositions indicate mercury biomagnification occurred in most of the polar bears investigated. Interpretation of stable isotope based foodweb structure in concert with Hg concentrations further suggests that Hg biomagnification occurred to a greater degree in polar bears participating in pelagic foodweb channels.

  12. Cool Science Explains a Warming World: Using Ice Core Science to Bridge the Gap Between Researchers and the K-12 Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, L. T.

    2017-12-01

    Changing ice has urgent implications for people around the world. The Ice Drilling Program Office (IDPO) provides scientific leadership and oversight of ice coring and drilling activities funded by the US National Science Foundation and also has goals to enhance education and communication of current research information. In a time when misinformation is rampant and climate change science is suspect, it is essential that students receive accurate scientific information and engage in learning activities that model complex ideas through engaging and age appropriate ways, while also learning to validate and recognize reliable sources. The IDPO Education and Outreach (EO) office works to create resources, activities and professional development that bridge the gap between ice core science research and educators and their students. Ice core science is on the cutting edge of new discoveries about climate change and understanding better the past to predict the future. Hands-on inquiry activities based on ice core data allow teachers to lead their students to new discoveries about climate secrets hidden deep in the ice. Capitalizing on the inherent interest in the extremes of the Polar Regions, IDPO materials engage students in activities aligned with NGSS standards. Ice drilling technologies make an ideal platform for intertwining engineering concepts and practices with science research to meet the SEP (Science and Engineering Practices) in the NGSS. This session will highlight how the IDPO EO office has built a community of ice core scientists willing to take part in education and outreach projects and events and share some of the resources available to K-12 educators. We will highlight some of the successes and lessons learned as we continually evolve our work toward more effective science education and communication highlighting ice core and climate change science.

  13. Sea-ice thickness from airborne laser altimetry over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Forsberg, René

    2002-01-01

    We present a new method to measure ice thickness of polar sea-ice freeboard heights, using airborne laser altimetry combined with a precise geoid model, giving estimates of thickness of ice through isostatic equilibrium assumptions. In the paper we analyze a number of flights from the Polar Sea off...... Northern Greenland, and estimate accuracies of the estimated freeboard values to be at a 13 cm level, corresponding to about 1 m in absolute thickness....

  14. Penicillium mycobiota in Arctic subglacial ice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonjak, S.; Frisvad, Jens Christian; Gunde-Cimerman, N.

    2006-01-01

    to be inhabited exclusively by heterotrophic bacteria. In this study we report on the very high occurrence (up to 9000 CFU L-1) and diversity of filamentous Penicillium spp. in the sediment-rich subglacial ice of three different polythermal Arctic glaciers (Svalbard, Norway). The dominant species was P. crustosum......Fungi have been only rarely isolated from glacial ice in extremely cold polar regions and were in these cases considered as random, long-term preserved Aeolian deposits. Fungal presence has so far not been investigated in polar subglacial ice, a recently discovered extreme habitat reported......, representing on the average half of all isolated strains from all three glaciers. The other most frequently isolated species were P. bialowiezense, P. chrysogenum, P. thomii, P. solitum, P. palitans, P. echinulatum, P. polonicum, P. commune, P. discolor, P. expansum, and new Penicillium species (sp. 1). Twelve...

  15. Boundary layer physics over snow and ice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. Anderson

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Observations of the unique chemical environment over snow and ice in recent decades, particularly in the polar regions, have stimulated increasing interest in the boundary layer processes that mediate exchanges between the ice/snow interface and the atmosphere. This paper provides a review of the underlying concepts and examples from recent field studies in polar boundary layer meteorology, which will generally apply to atmospheric flow over snow and ice surfaces. It forms a companion paper to the chemistry review papers in this special issue of ACP that focus on processes linking halogens to the depletion of boundary layer ozone in coastal environments, mercury transport and deposition, snow photochemistry, and related snow physics. In this context, observational approaches, stable boundary layer behavior, the effects of a weak or absent diurnal cycle, and transport and mixing over the heterogeneous surfaces characteristic of coastal ocean environments are of particular relevance.

  16. Coast Guard Polar Icebreaker Modernization: Background and Issues for Congress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-10

    nine missions supported by polar ice operations are search and rescue; maritime safety; aids to navigation; ice operations; marine environmental...operations are search and rescue; maritime safety; aids to navigation; ice operations; marine environmental protection; living marine resources...1 (+0 +1) 1 Japan 1 1 Australia 1 1 Chile 1 1 Latvia 1 1 South Korea 1 1 South Africa 1 1 Argentina 1 1

  17. Great Lakes Ice Charts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Charts show ice extent and concentration three times weekly during the ice season, for all lakes except Ontario, from the 1973/74 ice season through the 2001/2002...

  18. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven C. Amstrup; Hal Caswell; Eric DeWeaver; Ian Stirling; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; Christine M. Hunter

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior...

  19. Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

    2009-04-01

    The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

  20. Acoustic detection of ultra-high energy cascades in ice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boeser, S.

    2006-12-08

    Current underwater optical neutrino telescopes are designed to detect neutrinos from astrophysical sources with energies in the TeV range. Due to the low fluxes and small cross sections, no high energy neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin have been observed so far. Only the Cherenkov neutrino detectors on the km{sup 3} scale that are currently under construction will have the necessary volume to observe these rare interactions. For the guaranteed source of neutrinos from interactions of the ultra-high energy cosmic at EeV energies rays with the ambient cosmic microwave background, event rates of only one per year are expected in these experiments. To measure the flux and verify the predicted cross sections of these cosmogenic neutrinos, an observed volume of the order of 100 km{sup 3} will be necessary, that will not be feasible with existing detection techniques. Alternative methods are required to build a detector on these scales. One promising idea is to record the acoustic waves generated in hadronic or electromagnetic cascades following the neutrino interaction. The higher amplitudes of the sonic signal and the large expected absorption length of sound favour South Polar ice instead of sea water as a medium. The prerequisites for an estimate of the potential of such a detector are suitable acoustic sensors, a verification of the model of thermo-acoustic sound generation and a determination of the acoustic properties of the ice. In a theoretical derivation the mechanism of thermo-elastic excitation of acoustic waves was shown to be equivalent for isotropic solids and liquids. Following a detailed analysis of the existing knowledge a simulation study of a hybrid optical-radio-acoustic detector has been performed. Ultrasonic sensors dedicated to in-ice application were developed and have been used to record acoustic signals from intense proton and laser beams in water and ice. With the obtained experience, the hitherto largest array of acoustic sensors and

  1. Acoustic detection of ultra-high energy cascades in ice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeser, S.

    2006-01-01

    Current underwater optical neutrino telescopes are designed to detect neutrinos from astrophysical sources with energies in the TeV range. Due to the low fluxes and small cross sections, no high energy neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin have been observed so far. Only the Cherenkov neutrino detectors on the km 3 scale that are currently under construction will have the necessary volume to observe these rare interactions. For the guaranteed source of neutrinos from interactions of the ultra-high energy cosmic at EeV energies rays with the ambient cosmic microwave background, event rates of only one per year are expected in these experiments. To measure the flux and verify the predicted cross sections of these cosmogenic neutrinos, an observed volume of the order of 100 km 3 will be necessary, that will not be feasible with existing detection techniques. Alternative methods are required to build a detector on these scales. One promising idea is to record the acoustic waves generated in hadronic or electromagnetic cascades following the neutrino interaction. The higher amplitudes of the sonic signal and the large expected absorption length of sound favour South Polar ice instead of sea water as a medium. The prerequisites for an estimate of the potential of such a detector are suitable acoustic sensors, a verification of the model of thermo-acoustic sound generation and a determination of the acoustic properties of the ice. In a theoretical derivation the mechanism of thermo-elastic excitation of acoustic waves was shown to be equivalent for isotropic solids and liquids. Following a detailed analysis of the existing knowledge a simulation study of a hybrid optical-radio-acoustic detector has been performed. Ultrasonic sensors dedicated to in-ice application were developed and have been used to record acoustic signals from intense proton and laser beams in water and ice. With the obtained experience, the hitherto largest array of acoustic sensors and transmitters was

  2. Arctic sea ice concentration observed with SMOS during summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabarro, Carolina; Martinez, Justino; Turiel, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    The Arctic Ocean is under profound transformation. Observations and model predictions show dramatic decline in sea ice extent and volume [1]. A retreating Arctic ice cover has a marked impact on regional and global climate, and vice versa, through a large number of feedback mechanisms and interactions with the climate system [2]. The launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, in 2009, marked the dawn of a new type of space-based microwave observations. Although the mission was originally conceived for hydrological and oceanographic studies [3,4], SMOS is also making inroads in the cryospheric sciences by measuring the thin ice thickness [5,6]. SMOS carries an L-band (1.4 GHz), passive interferometric radiometer (the so-called MIRAS) that measures the electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Earth's surface, at about 50 km spatial resolution, continuous multi-angle viewing, large wide swath (1200-km), and with a 3-day revisit time at the equator, but more frequently at the poles. A novel radiometric method to determine sea ice concentration (SIC) from SMOS is presented. The method uses the Bayesian-based Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach to retrieve SIC. The advantage of this approach with respect to the classical linear inversion is that the former takes into account the uncertainty of the tie-point measured data in addition to the mean value, while the latter only uses a mean value of the tie-point data. When thin ice is present, the SMOS algorithm underestimates the SIC due to the low opacity of the ice at this frequency. However, using a synergistic approach with data from other satellite sensors, it is possible to obtain accurate thin ice thickness estimations with the Bayesian-based method. Despite its lower spatial resolution relative to SSMI or AMSR-E, SMOS-derived SIC products are little affected by the atmosphere and the snow (almost transparent at L-band). Moreover L-band measurements are more robust in front of the

  3. Influence of Sea Ice Crack Formation on the Spatial Distribution of Nutrients and Microalgae in Flooded Antarctic Multiyear Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, Daiki; Aoki, Shigeru; Simizu, Daisuke; Iida, Takahiro

    2018-02-01

    Cracks are common and natural features of sea ice formed in the polar oceans. In this study, a sea ice crack in flooded, multiyear, land-fast Antarctic sea ice was examined to assess its influence on biological productivity and the transport of nutrients and microalgae into the upper layers of neighboring sea ice. The water inside the crack and the surrounding host ice were characterized by a strong discoloration (brown color), an indicator of a massive algal bloom. Salinity and oxygen isotopic ratio measurements indicated that 64-84% of the crack water consisted of snow meltwater supplied during the melt season. Measurements of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations within the slush layer pool (the flooded layer at the snow-ice interface) revealed the intrusion of water from the crack, likely forced by mixing with underlying seawater during the tidal cycle. Our results suggest that sea ice crack formation provides conditions favorable for algal blooms by directly exposing the crack water to sunlight and supplying nutrients from the under-ice water. Subsequently, constituents of the crack water modified by biological activity were transported into the upper layer of the flooded sea ice. They were then preserved in the multiyear ice column formed by upward growth of sea ice caused by snow ice formation in areas of significant snow accumulation.

  4. Ice Nuclei Production in Volcanic Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Few, A. A.

    2012-12-01

    The paper [Durant et al., 2008] includes a review of research on ice nucleation in explosive volcanic clouds in addition to reporting their own research on laboratory measurements focused on single-particle ice nucleation. Their research as well as the research they reviewed were concerned with the freezing of supercooled water drops (250 to 260 K) by volcanic ash particles acting as ice freezing nuclei. Among their conclusions are: Fine volcanic ash particles are very efficient ice freezing nuclei. Volcanic clouds likely contain fine ash concentrations 104 to 105 times greater than found in meteorological clouds. This overabundance of ice nuclei will produce a cloud with many small ice crystals that will not grow larger as they do in meteorological clouds because the cloud water content is widely distributed among the numerous small ice crystals. The small ice crystals have a small fall velocity, thus volcanic clouds are very stable. The small ice crystals are easily lofted into the stratosphere transporting water and adsorbed trace gasses. In this paper we examine the mechanism for the production of the small ice nuclei and develop a simple model for calculating the size of the ice nuclei based upon the distribution of magma around imbedded bubbles. We also have acquired a volcanic bomb that exhibits bubble remnants on its entire surface. The naturally occurring fragments from the volcanic bomb reveal a size distribution consistent with that predicted by the simple model. Durant, A. J., R. A. Shaw, W. I. Rose, Y. Mi, and G. G. J. Ernst (2008), Ice nucleation and overseeding of ice in volcanic clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D09206, doi:10.1029/2007JD009064.

  5. Formation of brine channels in sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawetz, Klaus; Thoms, Silke; Kutschan, Bernd

    2017-03-01

    Liquid salty micro-channels (brine) between growing ice platelets in sea ice are an important habitat for CO 2 -binding microalgaea with great impact on polar ecosystems. The structure formation of ice platelets is microscopically described and a phase field model is developed. The pattern formation during solidification of the two-dimensional interstitial liquid is considered by two coupled order parameters, the tetrahedricity as structure of ice and the salinity. The coupling and time evolution of these order parameters are described by a consistent set of three model parameters. They determine the velocity of the freezing process and the structure formation, the phase diagram, the super-cooling and super-heating region, and the specific heat. The model is used to calculate the short-time frozen micro-structures. The obtained morphological structure is compared with the vertical brine pore space obtained from X-ray computed tomography.

  6. Seasonal Greenland Ice Sheet ice flow variations in regions of differing bed and surface topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sole, A. J.; Livingstone, S. J.; Rippin, D. M.; Hill, J.; McMillan, M.; Quincey, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to future sea-level rise is uncertain. Observations reveal the important role of basal water in controlling ice-flow to the ice sheet margin. In Greenland, drainage of large volumes of surface meltwater to the ice sheet bed through moulins and hydrofracture beneath surface lakes dominates the subglacial hydrological system and provides an efficient means of moving mass and heat through the ice sheet. Ice surface and bed topography influence where meltwater can access the bed, and the nature of its subsequent flow beneath the ice. However, no systematic investigation into the influence of topographic variability on Greenland hydrology and dynamics exists. Thus, physical processes controlling storage and drainage of surface and basal meltwater, and the way these affect ice flow are not comprehensively understood. This presents a critical obstacle in efforts to predict the future evolution of the GrIS. Here we present high-resolution satellite mapping of the ice-surface drainage network (e.g. lakes, channels and moulins) and measurements of seasonal variations in ice flow in south west Greenland. The region is comprised of three distinct subglacial terrains which vary in terms of the amplitude and wavelength and thus the degree to which basal topography is reflected in the ice sheet surface. We find that the distribution of surface hydrological features is related to the transfer of bed topography to the ice sheet surface. For example, in areas of thinner ice and high bed relief, moulins occur more frequently and are more uniformly dispersed, indicating a more distributed influx of surface-derived meltwater to the ice sheet bed. We investigate the implications of such spatial variations in surface hydrology on seasonal ice flow rates.

  7. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  8. Deformation-induced melting in the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minchew, B. M.; Meyer, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Shear stresses in the lateral margins are important components of the force balance in the glaciers and ice streams of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The magnitudes of these stresses are a function of the rheology of ice within the margins, and ice rheology is a function of ice temperature. Here, we focus on deformation-induced heating in AIS, with the goal of understanding the spatial distribution of zones of temperate ice within the ice sheet. We derive a new analytical thermodynamic model that includes advection, diffusion, and deformation heating. Taking downward advection of cold ice to be a function of surface accumulation, we find an expression for 1) the minimum shear strain rate necessary to produce a temperate-ice zone of finite thickness and 2) the thickness of the temperate-ice zone. Applying recently derived surface velocity fields (Gardner et al., 2017), estimates of ice thickness (Bedmap2; Fretwell et al., 2013), and surface mass balance and temperature (RACMO2.3; van Wessem et al., 2014), we predict the prevalence of temperate ice within AIS. Temperate ice zones are spatially extensive and extend from the bed to at least half of the local ice thickness in six distinct regions: Pine Island, Thwaites, and Kohler Glaciers (West Antarctica); Recovery and Slessor Glaciers (eastern Filchner Ice Shelf); Mellor and Lambert Glaciers (Amery Ice Shelf); Denman Glacier (East Antarctica); Byrd Glacier (western Ross Ice Shelf); and Bindschadler Ice Stream (eastern Ross Ice Shelf). In most of these regions, the formation of temperate ice is facilitated by small rates of downward advection of cold ice. The most striking exception is Pine Island Glacier, where extreme shear strain rates in the margins overcome relatively high rates of cold-ice advection to create zones of temperate ice that could exceed 75% of the local ice thickness. Through our model development, we show that the presence of temperate ice is largely governed by the ratio of the rate of deformation

  9. Arabidopsis thaliana ICE2 gene: phylogeny, structural evolution and functional diversification from ICE1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurbidaeva, Amina; Ezhova, Tatiana; Novokreshchenova, Maria

    2014-12-01

    The ability to tolerate environmental stresses is crucial for all living organisms, and gene duplication is one of the sources for evolutionary novelties. Arabidopsis thaliana INDUCER OF CBF EXPRESSION1 and 2 (ICE1 and ICE2) encode MYC-type bHLH (basic helix-loop-helix) transcription factors. They confer cold stress tolerance by induction of the CBF/DREB1 regulon and regulate stomata formation. Although ICE2 is closely related to ICE1, its origin and role in cold response remains uncertain. Here, we used a bioinformatics/phylogenetic approach to uncover the ICE2 evolutionary history, structural evolution and functional divergence from the putative ancestral gene. Sequence diversification from ICE1 included the gain of cis-acting elements in ICE2 promoter sequence that may provide meristem-specific and defense-related gene expression. By analyzing transgenic Arabidopsis lines with ICE2 over-expression we showed that it contributes to stomata formation, flowering time regulation and cold response. Constitutive ICE2 expression led to induced meristem freezing tolerance, resulting from activation of CBF1 and CBF3 genes and ABA biosynthesis by NCED3 induction. We presume that ICE2 gene has originated from a duplication event about 17.9MYA followed by sub- and neofunctionalization of the ancestral ICE1 gene. Moreover, we predict its role in pathogen resistance and flowering time regulation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The effect of sea ice loss on sea salt aerosol concentrations and the radiative balance in the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Struthers

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding Arctic climate change requires knowledge of both the external and the local drivers of Arctic climate as well as local feedbacks within the system. An Arctic feedback mechanism relating changes in sea ice extent to an alteration of the emission of sea salt aerosol and the consequent change in radiative balance is examined. A set of idealized climate model simulations were performed to quantify the radiative effects of changes in sea salt aerosol emissions induced by prescribed changes in sea ice extent. The model was forced using sea ice concentrations consistent with present day conditions and projections of sea ice extent for 2100. Sea salt aerosol emissions increase in response to a decrease in sea ice, the model results showing an annual average increase in number emission over the polar cap (70–90° N of 86 × 106 m−2 s−1 (mass emission increase of 23 μg m−2 s−1. This in turn leads to an increase in the natural aerosol optical depth of approximately 23%. In response to changes in aerosol optical depth, the natural component of the aerosol direct forcing over the Arctic polar cap is estimated to be between −0.2 and −0.4 W m−2 for the summer months, which results in a negative feedback on the system. The model predicts that the change in first indirect aerosol effect (cloud albedo effect is approximately a factor of ten greater than the change in direct aerosol forcing although this result is highly uncertain due to the crude representation of Arctic clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions in the model. This study shows that both the natural aerosol direct and first indirect effects are strongly dependent on the surface albedo, highlighting the strong coupling between sea ice, aerosols, Arctic clouds and their radiative effects.

  11. The Sea-Ice Floe Size Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, H. L., III; Schweiger, A. J. B.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

    2017-12-01

    The size distribution of ice floes in the polar seas affects the dynamics and thermodynamics of the ice cover and its interaction with the ocean and atmosphere. Ice-ocean models are now beginning to include the floe size distribution (FSD) in their simulations. In order to characterize seasonal changes of the FSD and provide validation data for our ice-ocean model, we calculated the FSD in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas over two spring-summer-fall seasons (2013 and 2014) using more than 250 cloud-free visible-band scenes from the MODIS sensors on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, identifying nearly 250,000 ice floes between 2 and 30 km in diameter. We found that the FSD follows a power-law distribution at all locations, with a seasonally varying exponent that reflects floe break-up in spring, loss of smaller floes in summer, and the return of larger floes after fall freeze-up. We extended the results to floe sizes from 10 m to 2 km at selected time/space locations using more than 50 high-resolution radar and visible-band satellite images. Our analysis used more data and applied greater statistical rigor than any previous study of the FSD. The incorporation of the FSD into our ice-ocean model resulted in reduced sea-ice thickness, mainly in the marginal ice zone, which improved the simulation of sea-ice extent and yielded an earlier ice retreat. We also examined results from 17 previous studies of the FSD, most of which report power-law FSDs but with widely varying exponents. It is difficult to reconcile the range of results due to different study areas, seasons, and methods of analysis. We review the power-law representation of the FSD in these studies and discuss some mathematical details that are important to consider in any future analysis.

  12. Water ice is water ice: some applications and limitations of Earth analogues to Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutnik, M.; Pathare, A.; Waddington, E. D.; Winebrenner, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Quantitative and qualitative analyses of ice on Mars have advanced with the acquisition of abundant topography, imagery, and radar data, which have enabled the planetary-science community to tackle sophisticated questions about the martian cryosphere. Over the past decades, many studies have applied knowledge of terrestrial ice-sheet and glacier flow to improve understanding of ice behavior on Mars. A key question for both planets is how we can robustly interpret past climate from glaciological and glacial geomorphological features. Doing this requires deciphering how the history of accumulation, ablation, dust/debris deposition, and flow led to the shape and internal structure of present-day ice. Terrestrial glaciology and glacial geomorphology provide physical relationships that can be extended across environmental conditions to characterize related processes that may act at different rates or on different timescales. However, there remain fundamental unknowns about martian ice rheology and history that often limit our ability to directly apply understanding of ice dynamics learned from Antarctica, Greenland, terrestrial glaciers, and laboratory ice experiments. But the field is rich with opportunity because the constitutive relationship for water ice depends on quantities that can typically be reasonably estimated; water ice is water ice. We reflect on progress to understand the history of the ice-rich North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD) and of select mid-latitude Lobate Debris Aprons (LDAs), and the utility of terrestrial ice-sheet and glacier analogues for these problems. Our work on Earth and Mars has focused on constraining surface accumulation/ablation patterns and ice-flow histories from topography and radar observations. We present on the challenge of interpreting internal-layer shapes when both accumulation/ablation and ice-flow histories are unknown, and how this non-uniqueness can be broken only by making assumptions about one or the other. In

  13. Kramers-Kronig relations for interstellar polarization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, P.G.

    1975-01-01

    The difficulties encountered in using the Kramers-Kronig relations to predict the behavior of interstellar polarization are pointed out, while at the same time their value in an interpretive role is acknowledged. Observations of interstellar circular polarization lead to restrictions on the interstellar grain composition, and additional constraints should be possible through measurement of linear polarization in the infrared and the ultraviolet

  14. Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilfold, Nicholas W; Hedman, Daryll; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Lunn, Nicholas J; Richardson, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporar