A Closer Look at Some of Mercury's North Polar Deposits: Three Craters that Could Have Extensive Surface Ice but Don't?

Science.gov (United States)

Chabot, N. L.; Neumann, G. A.; Ernst, C. M.; Mazarico, E. M.; Shread, E. E.

2018-05-01

We investigate three of Mercury's north polar craters that are predicted from their thermal conditions to be conducive to the presence of extensive water ice at the surface, but that may lack such ice.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Sea ice classification using dual polarization SAR data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huiying, Liu; Huadong, Guo; Lu, Zhang

2014-01-01

Sea ice is an indicator of climate change and also a threat to the navigation security of ships. Polarimetric SAR images are useful in the sea ice detection and classification. In this paper, backscattering coefficients and texture features derived from dual polarization SAR images are used for sea ice classification. Firstly, the HH image is recalculated based on the angular dependences of sea ice types. Then the effective gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) texture features are selected for the support vector machine (SVM) classification. In the end, because sea ice concentration can provide a better separation of pancake ice from old ice, it is used to improve the SVM result. This method provides a good classification result, compared with the sea ice chart from CIS

The isotopic composition of methane in polar ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, H.; Chou, C. C.; Welhan, J. A.; Stevens, C. M.; Engelkemeir, A.

1988-01-01

Air bubbles in polar ice cores indicate that about 300 years ago the atmospheric mixing ratio of methane began to increase rapidly. Today the mixing ratio is about 1.7 parts per million by volume, and, having doubled once in the past several hundred years, it will double again in the next 60 years if current rates continue. Carbon isotope ratios in methane up to 350 years in age have been measured with as little as 25 kilograms of polar ice recovered in 4-meter-long ice-core segments. The data show that: (1) in situ microbiology or chemistry has not altered the ice-core methane concentrations, and (2) that the carbon-13 to carbon-12 ratio of atmospheric CH4 in ice from 100 years and 300 years ago was about 2 per mil lower than at present. Atmospheric methane has a rich spectrum of isotopic sources: the ice-core data indicate that anthropogenic burning of the earth's biomass is the principal cause of the recent C-13H4 enrichment, although other factors may also contribute.

Increased Arctic sea ice drift alters adult female polar bear movements and energetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M; Douglas, David C; Albeke, Shannon E; Whiteman, John P; Amstrup, Steven C; Richardson, Evan; Wilson, Ryan R; Ben-David, Merav

2017-09-01

Recent reductions in thickness and extent have increased drift rates of Arctic sea ice. Increased ice drift could significantly affect the movements and the energy balance of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) which forage, nearly exclusively, on this substrate. We used radio-tracking and ice drift data to quantify the influence of increased drift on bear movements, and we modeled the consequences for energy demands of adult females in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas during two periods with different sea ice characteristics. Westward and northward drift of the sea ice used by polar bears in both regions increased between 1987-1998 and 1999-2013. To remain within their home ranges, polar bears responded to the higher westward ice drift with greater eastward movements, while their movements north in the spring and south in fall were frequently aided by ice motion. To compensate for more rapid westward ice drift in recent years, polar bears covered greater daily distances either by increasing their time spent active (7.6%-9.6%) or by increasing their travel speed (8.5%-8.9%). This increased their calculated annual energy expenditure by 1.8%-3.6% (depending on region and reproductive status), a cost that could be met by capturing an additional 1-3 seals/year. Polar bears selected similar habitats in both periods, indicating that faster drift did not alter habitat preferences. Compounding reduced foraging opportunities that result from habitat loss; changes in ice drift, and associated activity increases, likely exacerbate the physiological stress experienced by polar bears in a warming Arctic. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Polar bear and walrus response to the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Oakley, K.; Whalen, M.; Douglas, David C.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Atwood, Todd C.; Jay, C.

2012-01-01

The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. One highly visible consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades - a decline projected to continue and result in ice-free summers likely as soon as 2030. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are dependent on sea ice over the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean's marginal seas. The continental shelves are shallow regions with high biological productivity, supporting abundant marine life within the water column and on the sea floor. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform for hunting ice seals; walruses use sea ice as a resting platform between dives to forage for clams and other bottom-dwelling invertebrates. How have sea ice changes affected polar bears and walruses? How will anticipated changes affect them in the future?

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

White-beaked dolphins trapped in the ice and eaten by polar bears

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Aars

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus depend on sea ice, where they hunt ice-associated seals. However, they are opportunistic predators and scavengers with a long list of known prey species. Here we report from a small fjord in Svalbard, Norwegian High Arctic, a sighting of an adult male polar bear preying on two white-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris on 23 April 2014. This is the first record of this species as polar bear prey. White-beaked dolphins are frequent visitors to Svalbard waters in summer, but have not previously been reported this far north in early spring. We suggest they were trapped in the ice after strong northerly winds the days before, and possibly killed when forced to surface for air at a small opening in the ice. The bear had consumed most parts of one dolphin. When observed he was in the process of covering the mostly intact second dolphin with snow. Such caching behaviour is generally considered untypical of polar bears. During the following ice-free summer and autumn, at least seven different white-beaked dolphin carcasses were observed in or near the same area. We suggest, based on the area and the degree to which these dolphins had decayed, that they were likely from the same pod and also suffered death due to entrapment in the ice in April. At least six different polar bears were seen scavenging on the carcasses.

Research progress of anti-icing/deicing technologies for polar ships and offshore platforms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

XIE Qiang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The polar regions present adverse circumstances of high humidity and strong air-sea exchange. As such, the surfaces of ships and platforms (oil exploiting and drilling platforms serving in polar regions can easily be frozen by ice accretion, which not only affects the operation of the equipment but also threatens safety. This paper summarizes the status of the anti-icing/deicing technologies of both China and abroad for polar ships and offshore platforms, and introduces the various effects of ice accretion on polar ships and offshore platforms, and the resulting safety impacts. It then reviews existing anti-icing/deicing technologies and methods of both China and abroad, including such active deicing methods as electric heating, infrared heating and ultrasonic guided wave deicing, as well as such passive deicing methods as super hydrophobic coating, sacrificial coating, aqueous lubricating layer coating and low cross-link density (with interfacial slippage coating, summarizes their applicability to polar ships and offshore platforms, and finally discusses their advantages/disadvantages.

Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate-change-induced reduction of their sea-ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea-ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutritional needs of polar bears as well as the physiological and environmental constraints that shape their use of terrestrial ecosystems. Only small numbers of polar bears have been documented consuming terrestrial foods even in modest quantities. Over much of the polar bear's range, limited terrestrial food availability supports only low densities of much smaller, resident brown bears (Ursus arctos), which use low-quality resources more efficiently and may compete with polar bears in these areas. Where consumption of terrestrial foods has been documented, polar bear body condition and survival rates have declined even as land use has increased. Thus far, observed consumption of terrestrial food by polar bears has been insufficient to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities but can have ecological consequences for other species. Warming-induced loss of sea ice remains the primary threat faced by polar bears.

Evidence of unfrozen liquids and seismic anisotropy at the base of the polar ice sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Wittlinger, Gérard; Farra, Véronique

2015-03-01

We analyze seismic data from broadband stations located on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to determine polar ice seismic velocities. P-to-S converted waves at the ice/rock interface and inside the ice sheets and their multiples (the P-receiver functions) are used to estimate in-situ P-wave velocity (Vp) and P-to-S velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) of polar ice. We find that the polar ice sheets have a two-layer structure; an upper layer of variable thickness (about 2/3 of the total thickness) with seismic velocities close to the standard ice values, and a lower layer of approximately constant thickness with standard Vp but ∼25% smaller Vs. The lower layer ceiling corresponds approximately to the -30 °C isotherm. Synthetic modeling of P-receiver functions shows that strong seismic anisotropy and low vertical S velocity are needed in the lower layer. The seismic anisotropy results from the preferred orientation of ice crystal c-axes toward the vertical. The low vertical S velocity may be due to the presence of unfrozen liquids resulting from premelting at grain joints and/or melting of chemical solutions buried in the ice. The strongly preferred ice crystal orientation fabric and the unfrozen fluids may facilitate polar ice sheet basal flow.

Microstructural Location and Composition of Impurities in Polar Ice Cores, Version 1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains measurements of impurities and ions in three polar ice cores: the Vostok 5G ice core and the Byrd ice core from Antarctica, and the Greenland...

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Thomas A; Galicia, Melissa P; Thiemann, Gregory W; Belt, Simon T; Yurkowski, David J; Dyck, Markus G

2018-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D; Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; St Martin, Michelle; Douglas, David C; Olson, Jay

2015-01-01

Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013) when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia), highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

ispace's Polar Ice Explorer: Commerically Exploring the Poles of the Moon

Science.gov (United States)

Calzada-Diaz, A.; Acierno, K.; Rasera, J. N.; Lamamy, J.-A.

2018-04-01

This work provides the background, rationales, and scientific objectives for the ispace Polar Ice Explorer Project, an ISRU exploratory mission that aims to provide data about the lunar polar environment.

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus tissue.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas A Brown

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated, rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55, irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

Snow and Ice Applications of AVHRR in Polar Regions: Report of a Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Steffen, K.; Bindschadler, R.; Casassa, G.; Comiso, J.; Eppler, D.; Fetterer, F.; Hawkins, J.; Key, J.; Rothrock, D.; Thomas, R.;

C-band Joint Active/Passive Dual Polarization Sea Ice Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, M. R.; Gifford, C. M.; Winstead, N. S.; Walton, W. C.; Dietz, J. E.

2017-12-01

A technique for synergistically-combining high-resolution SAR returns with like-frequency passive microwave emissions to detect thin (Radar (SAR) is high resolution (5-100m) but because of cross section ambiguities automated algorithms have had difficulty separating thin ice types from water. The radiometric emissivity of thin ice versus water at microwave frequencies is generally unambiguous in the early stages of ice growth. The method, developed using RADARSAT-2 and AMSR-E data, uses higher-ordered statistics. For the SAR, the COV (coefficient of variation, ratio of standard deviation to mean) has fewer ambiguities between ice and water than cross sections, but breaking waves still produce ice-like signatures for both polarizations. For the radiometer, the PRIC (polarization ratio ice concentration) identifies areas that are unambiguously water. Applying cumulative statistics to co-located COV levels adaptively determines an ice/water threshold. Outcomes from extensive testing with Sentinel and AMSR-2 data are shown in the results. The detection algorithm was applied to the freeze-up in the Beaufort, Chukchi, Barents, and East Siberian Seas in 2015 and 2016, spanning mid-September to early November of both years. At the end of the melt, 6 GHz PRIC values are 5-10% greater than those reported by radiometric algorithms at 19 and 37 GHz. During freeze-up, COV separates grease ice (cross-pol/co-pol SAR ratio corrects for COV deficiencies. In general, the dual-sensor detection algorithm reports 10-15% higher total ice concentrations than operational scatterometer or radiometer algorithms, mostly from ice edge and coastal areas. In conclusion, the algorithm presented combines high-resolution SAR returns with passive microwave emissions for automated ice detection at SAR resolutions.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Wiig, Øystein

2016-01-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

Science.gov (United States)

Laidre, K. L.; Regehr, E. V.; Akcakaya, H. R.; Amstrup, S. C.; Atwood, T.; Lunn, N.; Obbard, M.; Stern, H. L., III; Thiemann, G.; Wiig, O.

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is the most serious threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) throughout their circumpolar range. We performed a data-based sensitivity analysis with respect to this threat by evaluating the potential response of the global polar bear population to projected sea-ice conditions. We conducted 1) an assessment of generation length for polar bears, 2) developed of a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat characteristics for the species; and 3) performed population projections over three generations, using computer simulation and statistical models representing alternative relationships between sea ice and polar bear abundance. Using three separate approaches, the median percent change in mean global population size for polar bears between 2015 and 2050 ranged from -4% (95% CI = -62%, 50%) to -43% (95% CI = -76%, -20%). Results highlight the potential for large reductions in the global population if sea-ice loss continues. They also highlight the large amount of uncertainty in statistical projections of polar bear abundance and the sensitivity of projections to plausible alternative assumptions. The median probability of a reduction in the mean global population size of polar bears greater than 30% over three generations was approximately 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95. The median probability of a reduction greater than 50% was approximately 0.07 (range 0-0.35), and the probability of a reduction greater than 80% was negligible.

A High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis System for Polar Ice Cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dallmayr, Remi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Kjær, Helle Astrid

2016-01-01

of Polar Research (NIPR) in Tokyo. The system allows the continuous analysis of stable water isotopes and electrical conductivity, as well as the collection of discrete samples from both inner and outer parts of the core. This CFA system was designed to have sufficiently high temporal resolution to detect...... signals of abrupt climate change in deep polar ice cores. To test its performance, we used the system to analyze different climate intervals in ice drilled at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) site, Greenland. The quality of our continuous measurement of stable water isotopes has been......In recent decades, the development of continuous flow analysis (CFA) technology for ice core analysis has enabled greater sample throughput and greater depth resolution compared with the classic discrete sampling technique. We developed the first Japanese CFA system at the National Institute...

Increased Land Use by Chukchi Sea Polar Bears in Relation to Changing Sea Ice Conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karyn D Rode

Full Text Available Recent observations suggest that polar bears (Ursus maritimus are increasingly using land habitats in some parts of their range, where they have minimal access to their preferred prey, likely in response to loss of their sea ice habitat associated with climatic warming. We used location data from female polar bears fit with satellite radio collars to compare land use patterns in the Chukchi Sea between two periods (1986-1995 and 2008-2013 when substantial summer sea-ice loss occurred. In both time periods, polar bears predominantly occupied sea-ice, although land was used during the summer sea-ice retreat and during the winter for maternal denning. However, the proportion of bears on land for > 7 days between August and October increased between the two periods from 20.0% to 38.9%, and the average duration on land increased by 30 days. The majority of bears that used land in the summer and for denning came to Wrangel and Herald Islands (Russia, highlighting the importance of these northernmost land habitats to Chukchi Sea polar bears. Where bears summered and denned, and how long they spent there, was related to the timing and duration of sea ice retreat. Our results are consistent with other studies supporting increased land use as a common response of polar bears to sea-ice loss. Implications of increased land use for Chukchi Sea polar bears are unclear, because a recent study observed no change in body condition or reproductive indices between the two periods considered here. This result suggests that the ecology of this region may provide a degree of resilience to sea ice loss. However, projections of continued sea ice loss suggest that polar bears in the Chukchi Sea and other parts of the Arctic may increasingly use land habitats in the future, which has the potential to increase nutritional stress and human-polar bear interactions.

DMSP SSM/I Daily and Monthly Polar Gridded Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — DMSP SSM/I Daily and Monthly Polar Gridded Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations in polar stereographic projection currently include Defense Meteorological Satellite...

Solid and gaseous inclusions in the EDML deep ice core: origins and implications for the physical properties of polar ice

Science.gov (United States)

Faria, S. H.; Kipfstuhl, S.; Garbe, C. S.; Bendel, V.; Weikusat, C.; Weikusat, I.

2010-12-01

The great value of polar deep ice cores stems mainly from two essential features of polar ice: its crystalline structure and its impurities. They determine the physical properties of the ice matrix and provide proxies for the investigation of past climates. Experience shows that these two essential features of polar ice manifest themselves in a multiscale diversity of dynamic structures, including dislocations, grain boundaries, solid particles, air bubbles, clathrate hydrates and cloudy bands, among others. The fact that these structures are dynamic implies that they evolve with time through intricate interactions between the crystalline structure, impurities, and the ice flow. Records of these interactions have been carefully investigated in samples of the EPICA deep ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (75°S, 0°E, 2882 m elevation, 2774.15 m core length). Here we show how the distributions of sizes and shapes of air bubbles correlate with impurities and the crystalline structure, how the interaction between moving grain boundaries and micro-inclusions changes with ice depth and temperature, as well as the possible causes for the abrupt change in ice rheology observed in the MIS6-MIS5e transition. We also discuss how these observations may affect the flow of the ice sheet and the interpretation of paleoclimate records. Micrograph of an EDML sample from 555m depth. One can identify air bubbles (dark, round objects), microinclusions (tiny defocused spots), and a grain boundary pinned by a bubble. The width of the image is 700 micrometers.

Ice condensation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate: Implications for polar stratospheric ice clouds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. Fortin

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The mechanism of ice nucleation to form Type 2 PSCs is important for controlling the ice particle size and hence the possible dehydration in the polar winter stratosphere. This paper probes heterogeneous ice nucleation on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT. Laboratory experiments were performed using a thin-film, high-vacuum apparatus in which the condensed phase is monitored via Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and water pressure is monitored with the combination of an MKS baratron and an ionization gauge. Results show that SAT is an efficient ice nucleus with a critical ice saturation ratio of S*ice = 1.3 to 1.02 over the temperature range 169.8-194.5 K. This corresponds to a necessary supercooling of 0.1-1.3 K below the ice frost point. The laboratory data is used as input for a microphysical/photochemical model to probe the effect that this heterogeneous nucleation mechanism could have on Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration. In the model simulations, even a very small number of SAT particles (e.g., 10-3 cm-3 result in ice nucleation on SAT as the dominant mechanism for Type 2 PSC formation. As a result, Type 2 PSC formation is more widespread, leading to larger-scale dehydration. The characteristics of the clouds are controlled by the assumed number of SAT particles present, demonstrating that a proper treatment of SAT is critical for correctly modeling Type 2 PSC formation and stratospheric dehydration.

Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack ice for a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, E.V.; Ben-David, M.

2011-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) prefer to live on Arctic sea ice but may swim between ice floes or between sea ice and land. Although anecdotal observations suggest that polar bears are capable of swimming long distances, no data have been available to describe in detail long distance swimming events or the physiological and reproductive consequences of such behavior. Between an initial capture in late August and a recapture in late October 2008, a radio-collared adult female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea made a continuous swim of 687 km over 9 days and then intermittently swam and walked on the sea ice surface an additional 1,800 km. Measures of movement rate, hourly activity, and subcutaneous and external temperature revealed distinct profiles of swimming and walking. Between captures, this polar bear lost 22% of her body mass and her yearling cub. The extraordinary long distance swimming ability of polar bears, which we confirm here, may help them cope with reduced Arctic sea ice. Our observation, however, indicates that long distance swimming in Arctic waters, and travel over deep water pack ice, may result in high energetic costs and compromise reproductive fitness.

Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Graham J. C.; Aslam, Shazia N.; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M.; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N.

2013-01-01

Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions. PMID:24019487

Broad-scale predictability of carbohydrates and exopolymers in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Graham J C; Aslam, Shazia N; Michel, Christine; Niemi, Andrea; Norman, Louiza; Meiners, Klaus M; Laybourn-Parry, Johanna; Paterson, Harriet; Thomas, David N

2013-09-24

Sea ice can contain high concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), much of which is carbohydrate-rich extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by microalgae and bacteria inhabiting the ice. Here we report the concentrations of dissolved carbohydrates (dCHO) and dissolved EPS (dEPS) in relation to algal standing stock [estimated by chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations] in sea ice from six locations in the Southern and Arctic Oceans. Concentrations varied substantially within and between sampling sites, reflecting local ice conditions and biological content. However, combining all data revealed robust statistical relationships between dCHO concentrations and the concentrations of different dEPS fractions, Chl a, and DOC. These relationships were true for whole ice cores, bottom ice (biomass rich) sections, and colder surface ice. The distribution of dEPS was strongly correlated to algal biomass, with the highest concentrations of both dEPS and non-EPS carbohydrates in the bottom horizons of the ice. Complex EPS was more prevalent in colder surface sea ice horizons. Predictive models (validated against independent data) were derived to enable the estimation of dCHO concentrations from data on ice thickness, salinity, and vertical position in core. When Chl a data were included a higher level of prediction was obtained. The consistent patterns reflected in these relationships provide a strong basis for including estimates of regional and seasonal carbohydrate and dEPS carbon budgets in coupled physical-biogeochemical models, across different types of sea ice from both polar regions.

Methanesulfonic acid (MSA) migration in polar ice: data synthesis and theory

Science.gov (United States)

Osman, Matthew; Das, Sarah B.; Marchal, Olivier; Evans, Matthew J.

2017-11-01

Methanesulfonic acid (MSA; CH3SO3H) in polar ice is a unique proxy of marine primary productivity, synoptic atmospheric transport, and regional sea-ice behavior. However, MSA can be mobile within the firn and ice matrix, a post-depositional process that is well known but poorly understood and documented, leading to uncertainties in the integrity of the MSA paleoclimatic signal. Here, we use a compilation of 22 ice core MSA records from Greenland and Antarctica and a model of soluble impurity transport in order to comprehensively investigate the vertical migration of MSA from summer layers, where MSA is originally deposited, to adjacent winter layers in polar ice. We find that the shallowest depth of MSA migration in our compilation varies over a wide range (˜ 2 to 400 m) and is positively correlated with snow accumulation rate and negatively correlated with ice concentration of Na+ (typically the most abundant marine cation). Although the considered soluble impurity transport model provides a useful mechanistic framework for studying MSA migration, it remains limited by inadequate constraints on key physico-chemical parameters - most notably, the diffusion coefficient of MSA in cold ice (DMS). We derive a simplified version of the model, which includes DMS as the sole parameter, in order to illuminate aspects of the migration process. Using this model, we show that the progressive phase alignment of MSA and Na+ concentration peaks observed along a high-resolution West Antarctic core is most consistent with 10-12 m2 s-1 values previously estimated from laboratory studies. More generally, our data synthesis and model results suggest that (i) MSA migration may be fairly ubiquitous, particularly at coastal and (or) high-accumulation regions across Greenland and Antarctica; and (ii) can significantly change annual and multiyear MSA concentration averages. Thus, in most cases, caution should be exercised when interpreting polar ice core MSA records, although records

Interannual observations and quantification of summertime H2O ice deposition on the Martian CO2 ice south polar cap

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Adrian J.; Piqueux, Sylvain; Titus, Timothy N.

2014-01-01

The spectral signature of water ice was observed on Martian south polar cap in 2004 by the Observatoire pour l'Mineralogie, l'Eau les Glaces et l'Activite (OMEGA) ( Bibring et al., 2004). Three years later, the OMEGA instrument was used to discover water ice deposited during southern summer on the polar cap ( Langevin et al., 2007). However, temporal and spatial variations of these water ice signatures have remained unexplored, and the origins of these water deposits remains an important scientific question. To investigate this question, we have used observations from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft of the southern cap during austral summer over four Martian years to search for variations in the amount of water ice. We report below that for each year we have observed the cap, the magnitude of the H2O ice signature on the southern cap has risen steadily throughout summer, particularly on the west end of the cap. The spatial extent of deposition is in disagreement with the current best simulations of deposition of water ice on the south polar cap (Montmessin et al., 2007). This increase in water ice signatures is most likely caused by deposition of atmospheric H2O ice and a set of unusual conditions makes the quantification of this transport flux using CRISM close to ideal. We calculate a ‘minimum apparent‘ amount of deposition corresponding to a thin H2O ice layer of 0.2 mm (with 70% porosity). This amount of H2O ice deposition is 0.6–6% of the total Martian atmospheric water budget. We compare our ‘minimum apparent’ quantification with previous estimates. This deposition process may also have implications for the formation and stability of the southern CO2 ice cap, and therefore play a significant role in the climate budget of modern day Mars.

Co-distribution of seabirds and their polar cod prey near the ice edge in southern Baffin Bay

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

LeBlanc, Mathieu; Gauthier, S; Mosbech, Anders

species, and age-1 polar cod found in bird stomachs were likely individuals associated to ice. At a large scale of hundreds of kilometers, seabirds and age-0 polar cod were more abundant in ice-covered habitats (30 to 100% ice concentration). At medium and small scale of 12.5 and 1 km respectively...

Polar Sea Ice Monitoring Using HY-2A Scatterometer Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingming Li

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A sea ice detection algorithm based on Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis is developed to segment sea ice and open water for the Ku-band scatterometer onboard the China’s Hai Yang 2A Satellite (HY-2A/SCAT. Residual classification errors are reduced through image erosion/dilation techniques and sea ice growth/retreat constraint methods. The arctic sea-ice-type classification is estimated via a time-dependent threshold derived from the annual backscatter trends based on previous HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice extent. The extent and edge of the sea ice obtained in this study is compared with the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS sea ice concentration data and the Sentinel-1 SAR imagery for verification, respectively. Meanwhile, the classified sea ice type is compared with a multi-sensor sea ice type product based on data from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT and SSMIS. Results show that HY-2A/SCAT is powerful in providing sea ice extent and type information, while differences in the sensitivities of active/passive products are found. In addition, HY-2A/SCAT derived sea ice products are also proved to be valuable complements for existing polar sea ice data products.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2010-01-01

Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long‐term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long‐term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

Can polar bears use terrestrial foods to offset lost ice-based hunting opportunities?

OpenAIRE

Rode, Karyn D.; Robbins, Charles T.; Nelson, Lynne; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

Increased land use by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) due to climate‐change‐induced reduction of their sea‐ice habitat illustrates the impact of climate change on species distributions and the difficulty of conserving a large, highly specialized carnivore in the face of this global threat. Some authors have suggested that terrestrial food consumption by polar bears will help them withstand sea‐ice loss as they are forced to spend increasing amounts of time on land. Here, we evaluate the nutriti...

Movement of a female polar bear (Ursus maritimus) in the Kara Sea during the summer sea-ice break-up.

Science.gov (United States)

Rozhnov, V V; Platonov, N G; Naidenko, S V; Mordvintsev, I N; Ivanov, E A

2017-01-01

The polar bear movement trajectory in relation to onset date of the sea-ice break-up was studied in the coastal zone of the Taimyr Peninsula, eastern part of the Kara Sea, using as an example a female polar bear tagged by a radio collar with an Argos satellite transmitter. Analysis of the long-term pattern of ice melting and tracking, by means of satellite telemetry, of the female polar bear who followed the ice-edge outgoing in the north-eastern direction (in summer 2012) suggests that direction of the polar bear movement depends precisely on the direction of the sea-ice cover break-up.

Estimation of Melt Pond Fractions on First Year Sea Ice Using Compact Polarization SAR

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haiyan; Perrie, William; Li, Qun; Hou, Yijun

2017-10-01

Melt ponds are a common feature on Arctic sea ice. They are linked to the sea ice surface albedo and transmittance of energy to the ocean from the atmosphere and thus constitute an important process to parameterize in Arctic climate models and simulations. This paper presents a first attempt to retrieve the melt pond fraction from hybrid-polarized compact polarization (CP) SAR imagery, which has wider swath and shorter revisit time than the quad-polarization systems, e.g., from RADARSAT-2 (RS-2). The co-polarization (co-pol) ratio has been verified to provide estimates of melt pond fractions. However, it is a challenge to link CP parameters and the co-pol ratio. The theoretical possibility is presented, for making this linkage with the CP parameter C22/C11 (the ratio between the elements of the coherence matrix of CP SAR) for melt pond detection and monitoring with the tilted-Bragg scattering model for the ocean surface. The empirical transformed formulation, denoted as the "compact polarization and quad-pol" ("CPQP") model, is proposed, based on 2062 RS-2 quad-pol SAR images, collocated with in situ measurements. We compared the retrieved melt pond fraction with CP parameters simulated from quad-pol SAR data with results retrieved from the co-pol ratio from quad-pol SAR observations acquired during the Arctic-Ice (Arctic-Ice Covered Ecosystem in a Rapidly Changing Environment) field project. The results are shown to be comparable for observed melt pond measurements in spatial and temporal distributions. Thus, the utility of CP mode SAR for melt pond fraction estimation on first year level ice is presented.

An Innovative Network to Improve Sea Ice Prediction in a Changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

fall (July – Oct), the CFSv2 forecasts are too extensive (positive bias), while in the rest of the year they are not extensive enough (negative bias...the year (January to September), but a negative bias in the early fall (October to December), during the ice growing season. This illustrate the...Overland, and S. Yang, Polar-Low latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction, 2015: Bull. Amer. Meteor . Soc. [in press]. HONORS

Synthesis of User Needs for Arctic Sea Ice Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Sheffield Guy, L.

2017-12-01

Forecasting Arctic sea ice on sub-seasonal to seasonal scales in a changing Arctic is of interest to a diverse range of stakeholders. However, sea ice forecasting is still challenging due to high variability in weather and ocean conditions and limits to prediction capabilities; the science needs for observations and modeling are extensive. At a time of challenged science funding, one way to prioritize sea ice prediction efforts is to examine the information needs of various stakeholder groups. This poster will present a summary and synthesis of existing surveys, reports, and other literature that examines user needs for sea ice predictions. The synthesis will include lessons learned from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (a collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions), the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (a resource for Alaska Native subsistence hunters and coastal communities, that provides reports on weather and sea ice conditions), and other efforts. The poster will specifically compare the scales and variables of sea ice forecasts currently available, as compared to what information is requested by various user groups.

Polarization difference due to nonrandomly oriented ice particles at millimeter/submillimeter waveband

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Xinxin; Miao Jungang

2011-01-01

This paper presents polarized signature due to oriented circular columnar and planar ice crystals at millimeter/submillimeter (mm/sub-mm) waveband. DDSCAT 6.1 and RT4 code package are employed for scattering properties and radiative transfer simulations, respectively, at the three estimated window frequencies (150, 220 and 340 GHz) of FengYun-4 (FY-4). We use empirical formulas to describe realistic sizes of planar and columnar particles and assume that ice particles are in Gamma-size distribution in this study. A 'resonance' feature of polarized signals as a function of median mass diameter is notably found for horizontally oriented columns and blunt plates at the frequency of 340 GHz; however, there is no promising resonance characteristic for horizontally aligned plates with empirical sizes at the three window channels of FY-4. The position of the resonance peak is related to particle aspect ratio, frequency and ice water path (IWP), and it moves to a shorter median mass diameter when the particle aspect ratio decreases or IWP in clouds increases. Considering that particle canting angle distribution (Gaussian distribution in this study), polarization difference, as well as the brightness temperature difference between clear and cloudy sky, decreases rapidly when particles gradually change from horizontally oriented to randomly oriented. The upwelling brightness temperature is insensitive to particle size and shape but sensitive to particle orientation, the difference of brightness temperature between horizontal and random orientation up to 6 K, whereas polarized signature is quite sensitive to particle microphysics as well as orientation; polarized measurements thereby could benefit retrieval of cloud microphysical parameters.

Movements of female polar bears (Usrus maritimus) in the East Greenland pack ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wiig, Øystein; Born, Erik W.; Pedersen, Leif Toudal

2003-01-01

The movements of two adult female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in East Greenland and the Greenland Sea area were studied by use of satellite telemetry between the fall of 1994 and the summer of 1998. One female was tracked for 621 days, the other for 1,415 days. During this time the females used...... for a closer monitoring of the effects of this change on the East Greenland polar bear population....... movement rates varied between 0.32 and 0.76km/h. Both bears had very large home ranges (242,000 and 468,000 km(2)) within the dynamic pack ice of the Greenland Sea. The facts that the bears made extensive use of the offshore sea ice and that there is a marked reduction of the Greenland Sea ice call...

Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, E.V.; Lunn, N.J.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2007-01-01

Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5-19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as

ICESat's First Year of Measurements Over the Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Shuman, C. A.

2004-05-01

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was developed to measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Its primary mission goal is to significantly refine estimates of polar ice sheet mass balance. Obtaining precise, spatially dense, ice sheet elevations through time is the first step towards this goal. ICESat data will then enable study of associations between observed ice changes and dynamic or climatic forcing factors, and thus enable improved estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat was launched on January 12, 2003 and acquired science data from February 20th to March 29th with the first of the three lasers of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Data acquisition with the second laser began on September 25th and continued until November 18th, 2003. For one-year change detection, the second laser is scheduled for operation from approximately February 17th to March 20th, 2004. Additional operational periods will be selected to 1) enable periodic measurements through the year, and 2) to support of other NASA Earth Science Enterprise missions and activities. To obtain these precise ice sheet elevations, GLAS has a 1064 nm wavelength laser operating at 40 Hz with a designed range precision of about 10 cm. The laser footprints are about 70 m in diameter on the Earth's surface and are spaced every 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system will enable laser footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibration is completed. The orbital altitude averages 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with coverage extending from 86 degrees N and S latitude. The spacecraft attitude can be controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of surface reference tracks over the ice sheets and to point off-nadir up to 5 degrees to

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

2009-01-01

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

Ross Ice Shelf airstream driven by polar vortex cyclone

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Colin

2012-07-01

The powerful air and ocean currents that flow in and above the Southern Ocean, circling in the Southern Hemisphere's high latitudes, form a barrier to mixing between Antarctica and the rest of the planet. Particularly during the austral winter, strong westerly winds isolate the Antarctic continent from heat, energy, and mass exchange, bolstering the scale of the annual polar ozone depletion and driving the continent's record-breaking low temperatures. Pushing through this wall of high winds, the Ross Ice Shelf airstream (RAS) is responsible for a sizable amount of mass and energy exchange from the Antarctic inland areas to lower latitudes. Sitting due south of New Zealand, the roughly 470,000-square-kilometer Ross Ice Shelf is the continent's largest ice shelf and a hub of activity for Antarctic research. A highly variable lower atmospheric air current, RAS draws air from the inland Antarctic Plateau over the Ross Ice Shelf and past the Ross Sea. Drawing on modeled wind patterns for 2001-2005, Seefeldt and Cassano identify the primary drivers of RAS.

Evaluation of icing drag coefficient correlations applied to iced propeller performance prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Thomas L.; Shaw, R. J.; Korkan, K. D.

1987-01-01

Evaluation of three empirical icing drag coefficient correlations is accomplished through application to a set of propeller icing data. The various correlations represent the best means currently available for relating drag rise to various flight and atmospheric conditions for both fixed-wing and rotating airfoils, and the work presented here ilustrates and evaluates one such application of the latter case. The origins of each of the correlations are discussed, and their apparent capabilities and limitations are summarized. These correlations have been made to be an integral part of a computer code, ICEPERF, which has been designed to calculate iced propeller performance. Comparison with experimental propeller icing data shows generally good agreement, with the quality of the predicted results seen to be directly related to the radial icing extent of each case. The code's capability to properly predict thrust coefficient, power coefficient, and propeller efficiency is shown to be strongly dependent on the choice of correlation selected, as well as upon proper specificatioon of radial icing extent.

Buried CO2 Ice traces in South Polar Layered Deposits of Mars detected by radar sounder

Science.gov (United States)

Castaldo, L.; Mège, D.; Orosei, R.; Séjourné, A.

2014-12-01

SHARAD (SHAllow RADar) is the subsurface sounding radar provided by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) as a facility instrument to NASA's 2005 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The Reduced Data Record of SHARAD data covering the area of the South Polar Layered Deposits (SPLD), has been used. The elaboration and interpretation of the data, aimed to estimate electromagnetic properties of surface layers, has been performed in terms of permittivity. The theory of electromagnetic scattering from fractal surfaces, and the estimation of geometric parameters from topographic data by Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) which was one of five instruments on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft, has been used. A deep analysis of inversion has been made on all Mars and extended to the South Polar Caps in order to extract the area with a permittivity constant of CO2 ice. Several corrections have been applied to the data, moreover the calibration of the signal requires the determination of a constant that takes into account the power gain due to the radar system and the surface in order to compensate the power losses due to the orbitographic phenomena. The determination of regions with high probability of buried CO2 ice in the first layer of the Martian surface, is obtained extracting the real part of the permittivity constant of the CO2 ice (~2), estimated by other means. The permittivity of CO2ice is extracted from the Global Permittivity Map of Mars using the global standard deviation of itself as following: ɛCO2ice=ɛCO2ice+ Σ (1)where Σ=±std(ɛMapMars)/2Figure 1(a) shows the south polar areas where the values of the permittivity point to the possibility of a CO2 ice layer. Figure 1(b) is the corresponding geologic map. The comparison between the two maps indicates that the area with probable buried CO2 overlaps Hesperian and Amazonian polar units (Hp, Hesperian plains-forming deposits marked by narrow sinuous, anabranching ridges and irregular depressions, and

New Techniques for Radar Altimetry of Sea Ice and the Polar Oceans

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, T. W. K.; Kwok, R.; Egido, A.; Smith, W. H. F.; Cullen, R.

2017-12-01

Satellite radar altimetry has proven to be a valuable tool for remote sensing of the polar oceans, with techniques for estimating sea ice thickness and sea surface height in the ice-covered ocean advancing to the point of becoming routine, if not operational, products. Here, we explore new techniques in radar altimetry of the polar oceans and the sea ice cover. First, we present results from fully-focused SAR (FFSAR) altimetry; by accounting for the phase evolution of scatterers in the scene, the FFSAR technique applies an inter-burst coherent integration, potentially over the entire duration that a scatterer remains in the altimeter footprint, which can narrow the effective along track resolution to just 0.5m. We discuss the improvement of using interleaved operation over burst-more operation for applying FFSAR processing to data acquired by future missions, such as a potential CryoSat follow-on. Second, we present simulated sea ice retrievals from the Ka-band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn), the instrument that will be launched on the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in 2021, that is capable of producing swath images of surface elevation. These techniques offer the opportunity to advance our understanding of the physics of the ice-covered oceans, plus new insight into how we interpret more conventional radar altimetry data in these regions.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Water on Mars: Inventory, distribution, and possible sources of polar ice

Science.gov (United States)

Clifford, S. M.

1992-01-01

Theoretical considerations and various lines of morphologic evidence suggest that, in addition to the normal seasonal and climatic exchange of H2O that occurs between the Martian polar caps, atmosphere, and mid to high latitude regolith, large volumes of water have been introduced into the planet's long term hydrologic cycle by the sublimation of equatorial ground ice, impacts, catastrophic flooding, and volcanism. Under the climatic conditions that are thought to have prevailed on Mars throughout the past 3 to 4 b.y., much of this water is expected to have been cold trapped at the poles. The amount of polar ice contributed by each of the planet's potential crustal sources is discussed and estimated. The final analysis suggests that only 5 to 15 pct. of this potential inventory is now in residence at the poles.

The formation of multiple layers of ice particles in the polar summer mesopause region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Li

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a two-dimensional theoretical model to study the formation process of multiple layers of small ice particles in the polar summer mesosphere as measured by rockets and associated with polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE. The proposed mechanism primarily takes into account the transport processes induced by gravity waves through collision coupling between the neutral atmosphere and the ice particles. Numerical solutions of the model indicate that the dynamic influence of wind variation induced by gravity waves can make a significant contribution to the vertical and horizontal transport of ice particles and ultimately transform them into thin multiple layers. Additionally, the pattern of the multiple layers at least partially depends on the vertical wavelength of the gravity wave, the ice particle size and the wind velocity. The results presented in this paper will be helpful to better understand the occurrence of multiple layers of PMSE as well as its variation process.

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100

Predicting Clear-Sky Reflectance Over Snow/Ice in Polar Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yan; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Arduini, Robert F.; Hong, Gang; Minnis, Patrick

2015-01-01

Satellite remote sensing of clouds requires an accurate estimate of the clear-sky radiances for a given scene to detect clouds and aerosols and to retrieve their microphysical properties. Knowing the spatial and angular variability of clear-sky albedo is essential for predicting clear-sky radiance at solar wavelengths. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project uses the nearinfrared (NIR; 1.24, 1.6 or 2.13 micrometers), visible (VIS; 0.63 micrometers) and vegetation (VEG; 0.86 micrometers) channels available on the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to help identify clouds and retrieve their properties in both snow-free and snow-covered conditions. Thus, it is critical to have reliable distributions of clear-sky albedo for all of these channels. In CERES Edition 4 (Ed4), the 1.24-micrometer channel is used to retrieve cloud optical depth over snow/ice-covered surfaces. Thus, it is especially critical to accurately predict the 1.24-micrometer clear-sky albedo alpha and reflectance rho for a given location and time. Snow albedo and reflectance patterns are very complex due to surface texture, particle shapes and sizes, melt water, and vegetation protrusions from the snow surface. To minimize those effects, this study focuses on the permanent snow cover of Antarctica where vegetation is absent and melt water is minimal. Clear-sky albedos are determined as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA) from observations over all scenes determined to be cloud-free to produce a normalized directional albedo model (DRM). The DRM is used to develop alpha(SZA=0 degrees) on 10 foot grid for each season. These values provide the basis for predicting r at any location and set of viewing & illumination conditions. This paper examines the accuracy of this approach for two theoretical snow surface reflectance models.

Past climate changes derived from isotope measurements in polar ice cores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beer, J.; Muscheler, R.; Wagner, G.; Kubik, P.K.

2002-01-01

Measurements of stable and radioactive isotopes in polar ice cores provide a wealth of information on the climate conditions of the past. Stable isotopes (δ 18 O, δD) reflect mainly the temperature, whereas δ 18 O of oxygen in air bubbles reveals predominantly the global ice volume and the biospheric activity. Cosmic ray produced radioisotopes (cosmogenic nuclides) such as 10 Be and 36 Cl record information on the solar variability and possibly also on the solar irradiance. If the flux of a cosmogenic nuclide into the ice is known the accumulation rate can be derived from the measured concentration. The comparison of 10 Be from ice with 14 C from tree rings allows deciding whether observed 14 C variations are caused by production or system effects. Finally, isotope measurements are very useful for establishing and improving time scales. The 10 Be/ 36 Cl ratio changes with an apparent half-life of 376,000 years and is therefore well suited to date old ice. Significant abrupt changes in the records of 10 Be, 36 Cl from ice and of δ 18 O from atmospheric oxygen representing global signals can be used to synchronize ice and sediment cores. (author)

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

Science.gov (United States)

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

IceCube Polar Virtual Reality exhibit: immersive learning for learners of all ages

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, J.; Bravo Gallart, S.; Chase, A.; Dougherty, P.; Gagnon, D.; Pronto, K.; Rush, M.; Tredinnick, R.

2017-12-01

The IceCube Polar Virtual Reality project is an innovative, interactive exhibit that explains the operation and science of a flagship experiment in polar research, the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The exhibit allows users to travel from the South Pole, where the detector is located, to the furthest reaches of the universe, learning how the detection of high-energy neutrinos has opened a new view to the universe. This novel exhibit combines a multitouch tabletop display system and commercially available virtual reality (VR) head-mounted displays to enable informal STEM learning of polar research. The exhibit, launched in early November 2017 during the Wisconsin Science Festival in Madison, WI, will study how immersive VR can enhance informal STEM learning. The foundation of this project is built upon a strong collaborative effort between the Living Environments Laboratory (LEL), the Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center (WIPAC), and the Field Day Laboratory groups from the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus. The project is funded through an NSF Advancing Informal STEM Learning (AISL) grant, under a special call for engaging students and the public in polar research. This exploratory pathways project seeks to build expertise to allow future extensions. The plan is to submit a subsequent AISL Broad Implementation proposal to add more 3D environments for other Antarctic research topics and locations in the future. We will describe the current implementation of the project and discuss the challenges and opportunities of working with an interdisciplinary team of scientists and technology and education researchers. We will also present preliminary assessment results, which seek to answer questions such as: Did users gain a better understanding of IceCube research from interacting with the exhibit? Do both technologies (touch table and VR headset) provide the same level of engagement? Is one technology better suited for specific learning outcomes?

The Big Science Questions About Mercury's Ice-Bearing Polar Deposits After MESSENGER

Science.gov (United States)

Chabot, N. L.; Lawrence, D. J.

2018-05-01

Mercury’s polar deposits provide many well-characterized locations that are known to have large expanses of exposed water ice and/or other volatile materials — presenting unique opportunities to address fundamental science questions.

Prediction of ice accretion and anti-icing heating power on wind turbine blades using standard commercial software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villalpando, Fernando; Reggio, Marcelo; Ilinca, Adrian

2016-01-01

An approach to numerically simulate ice accretion on 2D sections of a wind turbine blade is presented. The method uses standard commercial ANSYS-Fluent and Matlab tools. The Euler-Euler formulation is used to calculate the water impingement on the airfoil, and a UDF (Used Defined Function) has been devised to turn the airfoil's solid wall into a permeable boundary. Mayer's thermodynamic model is implemented in Matlab for computing ice thickness and for updating the airfoil contour. A journal file is executed to systematize the procedure: meshing, droplet trajectory calculation, thermodynamic model application for computing ice accretion, and the updating of airfoil contours. The proposed ice prediction strategy has been validated using iced airfoil contours obtained experimentally in the AMIL refrigerated wind tunnel (Anti-icing Materials International Laboratory). Finally, a numerical prediction method has been generated for anti-icing assessment, and its results compared with data obtained in this laboratory. - Highlights: • A methodology for ice accretion prediction using commercial software is proposed. • Euler model gives better prediction of airfoil water collection with detached flow. • A source term is used to change from a solid wall to a permeable wall in Fluent. • Energy needed for ice-accretion mitigation system is predicted.

Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva

2015-11-01

Full Text Available With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR, the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM] are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process.

Design and Operation of Automated Ice-Tethered Profilers for Real-Time Seawater Observations in the Polar Oceans

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Toole, J; Proshutinsky, A; Krishfield, R; Doherty, K; Frye, Daniel E; Hammar, T; Kemp, J; Peters, D; Heydt, K. von der

2006-01-01

An automated, easily-deployed Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) has been developed for deployment on perennial sea ice in polar oceans to measure changes in upper ocean temperature and salinity in all seasons...

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

2010-01-01

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Sea ice roughness: the key for predicting Arctic summer ice albedo

Science.gov (United States)

Landy, J.; Ehn, J. K.; Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Barber, D. G.

2017-12-01

Although melt ponds on Arctic sea ice evolve in stages, ice with smoother surface topography typically allows the pond water to spread over a wider area, reducing the ice-albedo and accelerating further melt. Building on this theory, we simulated the distribution of meltwater on a range of statistically-derived topographies to develop a quantitative relationship between premelt sea ice surface roughness and summer ice albedo. Our method, previously applied to ICESat observations of the end-of-winter sea ice roughness, could account for 85% of the variance in AVHRR observations of the summer ice-albedo [Landy et al., 2015]. Consequently, an Arctic-wide reduction in sea ice roughness over the ICESat operational period (from 2003 to 2008) explained a drop in ice-albedo that resulted in a 16% increase in solar heat input to the sea ice cover. Here we will review this work and present new research linking pre-melt sea ice surface roughness observations from Cryosat-2 to summer sea ice albedo over the past six years, examining the potential of winter roughness as a significant new source of sea ice predictability. We will further evaluate the possibility for high-resolution (kilometre-scale) forecasts of summer sea ice albedo from waveform-level Cryosat-2 roughness data in the landfast sea ice zone of the Canadian Arctic. Landy, J. C., J. K. Ehn, and D. G. Barber (2015), Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,714-10,720, doi:10.1002/2015GL066712.

Breaking the Ice: Strategies for Future European Research in the Polar Oceans - The AURORA BOREALIS Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Lembke-Jene, L.; Biebow, N.; Wolff-Boenisch, B.; Thiede, J.; European Research Icebreaker Consortium

2011-12-01

Research vessels dedicated to work in polar ice-covered waters have only rarely been built. Their history began with Fritjof Nansen's FRAM, which he used for his famous first crossing of the Arctic Ocean 1893-1896. She served as example for the first generation of polar research vessels, at their time being modern instruments planned with foresight. Ice breaker technology has developed substantially since then. However, it took almost 80 years until this technical advance also reached polar research, when the Russian AKADEMIK FEDEROV, the German POLARSTERN, the Swedish ODEN and the USCG Cutter HEALY were built. All of these house modern laboratories, are ice-breakers capable to move into the deep-Arctic during the summer time and represent the second generation of dedicated polar research vessels. Still, the increasing demand in polar marine research capacities by societies that call for action to better understand climate change, especially in the high latitudes is not matched by adequate facilities and resources. Today, no icebreaker platform exists that is permanently available to the international science community for year-round expeditions into the central Arctic Ocean or heavily ice-infested waters of the polar Southern Ocean around Antarctica. The AURORA BOREALIS concept plans for a heavy research icebreaker, which will enable polar scientists around the world to launch international research expeditions into the central Arctic Ocean and the Antarctic continental shelf seas autonomously during all seasons of the year. The European Research Icebreaker Consortium - AURORA BOREALIS (ERICON-AB) was established in 2008 to plan the scientific, governance, financial, and legal frameworks needed for the construction and operation of this first multi-nationally owned and operated research icebreaker and polar scientific drilling platform. By collaborating together and sharing common infrastructures it is envisioned that European nations make a major contribution to

Properties of horizontally oriented ice crystals observed by polarization lidar over summit, Greenland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neely Ryan R.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A source of error in microphysical retrievals and model simulations is the assumption that clouds are composed of only randomly oriented ice crystals. This assumption is frequently not true, as evidenced by optical phenomena such as parhelia. Here, observations from the Cloud, Aerosol and Polarization Backscatter Lidar at Summit, Greenland are utilized along with other sensors and beam imaging to examine the properties of horizontally oriented ice crystals and the environment conditions in which they occur.

Review of ice and snow runway pavements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greg White

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Antarctica is the highest, driest, coldest, windiest, most remote and most pristine place on Earth. Polar operations depend heavily on air transportation and support for personnel and equipment. It follows that improvement in snow and ice runway design, construction and maintenance will directly benefit polar exploration and research. Current technologies and design methods for snow and ice runways remain largely reliant on work performed in the 1950s and 1960s. This paper reviews the design and construction of polar runways using snow and ice as geomaterials. The inability to change existing snow and ice thickness or temperature creates a challenge for polar runway design and construction, as does the highly complex mechanical behaviour of snow, including the phenomena known as sintering. It is recommended that a modern approach be developed for ice and snow runway design, based on conventional rigid and flexible pavement design principles. This requires the development on an analytical model for the prediction of snow strength, based on snow age, temperature history and density. It is also recommended that the feasibility of constructing a snow runway at the South Pole be revisited, in light of contemporary snow sintering methods. Such a runway would represent a revolutionary advance for the logistical support of Antarctic research efforts. Keywords: Runway, Pavement, Snow, Ice, Antarctic

Measurements of acetylene in air extracted from polar ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Nicewonger, M. R.; Aydin, M.; Montzka, S. A.; Saltzman, E. S.

2016-12-01

Acetylene (ethyne) is a non-methane hydrocarbon emitted during combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass. The major atmospheric loss pathway of acetylene is oxidation by hydroxyl radical with a lifetime estimated at roughly two weeks. The mean annual acetylene levels over Greenland and Antarctica are 250 ppt and 20 ppt, respectively. Firn air measurements suggest atmospheric acetylene is preserved unaltered in polar snow and firn. Atmospheric reconstructions based on firn air measurements indicate acetylene levels rose significantly during the twentieth century, peaked near 1980, then declined to modern day levels. This historical trend is similar to that of other fossil fuel-derived non-methane hydrocarbons. In the preindustrial atmosphere, acetylene levels should primarily reflect emissions from biomass burning. In this study, we present the first measurements of acetylene in preindustrial air extracted from polar ice cores. Air from fluid and dry-drilled ice cores from Summit, Greenland and WAIS-Divide Antarctica is extracted using a wet-extraction technique. The ice core air is analyzed using gas chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry. Between 1400 to 1800 C.E., acetylene levels over Greenland and Antarctica varied between roughly 70-120 ppt and 10-30 ppt, respectively. The preindustrial Greenland acetylene levels are significantly lower than modern levels, reflecting the importance of northern hemisphere fossil fuel sources today. The preindustrial Antarctic acetylene levels are comparable to modern day levels, indicating similar emissions in the preindustrial atmosphere, likely from biomass burning. The implications of the preindustrial atmospheric acetylene records from both hemispheres will be discussed.

Web-based Tools for Educators: Outreach Activities of the Polar Radar for Ice Sheet Measurements (PRISM) Project

Science.gov (United States)

Braaten, D. A.; Holvoet, J. F.; Gogineni, S.

2003-12-01

The Radar Systems and Remote Sensing Laboratory at the University of Kansas (KU) has implemented extensive outreach activities focusing on Polar Regions as part of the Polar Radar for Ice Sheet Measurements (PRISM) project. The PRISM project is developing advanced intelligent remote sensing technology that involves radar systems, an autonomous rover, and communications systems to measure detailed ice sheet characteristics, and to determine bed conditions (frozen or wet) below active ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica. These measurements will provide a better understanding of the response of polar ice sheets to global climate change and the resulting impact the ice sheets will have on sea level rise. Many of the research and technological development aspects of the PRISM project, such as robotics, radar systems, climate change and exploration of harsh environments, can kindle an excitement and interest in students about science and technology. These topics form the core of our K-12 education and training outreach initiatives, which are designed to capture the imagination of young students, and prompt them to consider an educational path that will lead them to scientific or engineering careers. The K-12 PRISM outreach initiatives are being developed and implemented in a collaboration with the Advanced Learning Technology Program (ALTec) of the High Plains Regional Technology in Education Consortium (HPR*TEC). ALTec is associated with the KU School of Education, and is a well-established educational research center that develops and hosts web tools to enable teachers nationwide to network, collaborate, and share resources with other teachers. An example of an innovative and successful web interface developed by ALTec is called TrackStar. Teachers can use TrackStar over the Web to develop interactive, resource-based lessons (called tracks) on-line for their students. Once developed, tracks are added to the TrackStar database and can be accessed and modified

United States Naval Academy Polar Science Program's Visual Arctic Observing Buoys; The IceGoat

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, J. E.; Clemente-Colon, P.; Nghiem, S. V.; Rigor, I.; Valentic, T. A.

2012-12-01

The U.S. Naval Academy Oceanography Department currently has a curriculum based Polar Science Program (USNA PSP). Within the PSP there is an Arctic Buoy Program (ABP) student research component that will include the design, build, testing and deployment of Arctic Buoys. Establishing an active, field-research program in Polar Science will greatly enhance Midshipman education and research, as well as introduce future Naval Officers to the Arctic environment. The Oceanography Department has engaged the USNA Ocean Engineering, Systems Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, and Computer Science Departments and developed a USNA Visual Arctic Observing Buoy, IceGoat1, which was designed, built, and deployed by midshipmen. The experience gained through Polar field studies and data derived from these buoys will be used to enhance course materials and laboratories and will also be used directly in Midshipman independent research projects. The USNA PSP successfully deployed IceGoat1 during the BROMEX 2012 field campaign out of Barrow, AK in March 2012. This buoy reports near real-time observation of Air Temperature, Sea Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure, Position and Images from 2 mounted webcams. The importance of this unique type of buoy being inserted into the U.S. Interagency Arctic Buoy Program and the International Arctic Buoy Programme (USIABP/IABP) array is cross validating satellite observations of sea ice cover in the Arctic with the buoys webcams. We also propose to develop multiple sensor packages for the IceGoat to include a more robust weather suite, and a passive acoustic hydrophone. Remote cameras on buoys have provided crucial qualitative information that complements the quantitative measurements of geophysical parameters. For example, the mechanical anemometers on the IABP Polar Arctic Weather Station at the North Pole Environmental Observatory (NPEO) have at times reported zero winds speeds, and inspection of the images from the NPEO cameras have showed

What About Sea Ice? People, animals, and climate change in the polar regions: An online resource for the International Polar Year and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Renfrow, S.; Meier, W. N.; Wolfe, J.; Scott, D.; Leon, A.; Weaver, R.

2005-12-01

Decreasing Arctic sea ice has been one of the most noticeable changes on Earth over the past quarter-century. The years 2002 through 2005 have had much lower summer sea ice extents than the long-term (1979-2000). Reduced sea ice extent has a direct impact on Arctic wildlife and people, as well as ramifications for regional and global climate. Students, educators, and the general public want and need to have a better understanding of sea ice. Most of us are unfamiliar with sea ice: what it is, where it occurs, and how it affects global climate. The upcoming International Polar Year will provide an opportunity for the public to learn about sea ice. Here, we provide an overview of sea ice, the changes that the sea ice is undergoing, and information about the relation between sea ice and climate. The information presented here is condensed from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's new 'All About Sea Ice' Web site (http://www.nsidc.org/seaice/), a comprehensive resource of information for sea ice.

IOCCG Report Number 16, 2015 Ocean Colour Remote Sensing in Polar Seas . Chapter 2; The Polar Environment: Sun, Clouds, and Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Perovich, Don; Stamnes, Knut; Stuart, Venetia (Editor)

2015-01-01

The polar regions are places of extremes. There are months when the regions are enveloped in unending darkness, and months when they are in continuous daylight. During the daylight months the sun is low on the horizon and often obscured by clouds. In the dark winter months temperatures are brutally cold, and high winds and blowing snow are common. Even in summer, temperatures seldom rise above 0degC. The cold winter temperatures cause the ocean to freeze, forming sea ice. This sea ice cover acts as a barrier limiting the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. It also greatly complicates the optical signature of the surface. Taken together, these factors make the polar regions a highly challenging environment for optical remote sensing of the ocean.

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Palm, Stephen P.; Strey, Sara T.; Spinhirne, James; Markus, Thorsten

2010-01-01

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

The Contribution of Water Ice Clouds to the Water Cycle in the North Polar Region of Mars: Preliminary Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Bass, D. S.; Tamppari, L. K.

2000-01-01

While it has long been known that Mars' north residual polar cap and the Martian regolith are significant sources of atmospheric water vapor, the amount of water vapor observed in the northern spring season by the Viking Mars Atmospheric Water Detector instrument (MAWD) cannot be attributed to cap and regolith sources alone. Kahn suggested that ice hazes may be the mechanism by which additional water is supplied to the Martian atmosphere. Additionally, a significant decrease in atmospheric water vapor was observed in the late northern summer that could not be correlated with the return of the cold seasonal C02 ice. While the detection of water ice clouds on Mars indicate that water exists in Mars' atmosphere in several different phases, the extent to which water ice clouds play a role in moving water through the Martian atmosphere remains uncertain. Work by Bass et. al. suggested that the time dependence of water ice cap seasonal variability and the increase in atmospheric water vapor depended on the polar cap center reaching 200K, the night time saturation temperature. Additionally, they demonstrated that a decrease in atmospheric water vapor may be attributed to deposition of water ice onto the surface of the polar cap; temperatures were still too warm at this time in the summer for the deposition of carbon dioxide. However, whether water ice clouds contribute significantly to this variability is unknown. Additional information is contained in original extended abstract.

Genomic Evidence of Widespread Admixture from Polar Bears into Brown Bears during the Last Ice Age.

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, James A; Heintzman, Peter D; Harris, Kelley; Teasdale, Matthew D; Kapp, Joshua; Soares, Andre E R; Stirling, Ian; Bradley, Daniel; Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Graim, Kiley; Kisleika, Aliaksandr A; Malev, Alexander V; Monaghan, Nigel; Green, Richard E; Shapiro, Beth

2018-05-01

Recent genomic analyses have provided substantial evidence for past periods of gene flow from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) into Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos), with some analyses suggesting a link between climate change and genomic introgression. However, because it has mainly been possible to sample bears from the present day, the timing, frequency, and evolutionary significance of this admixture remains unknown. Here, we analyze genomic DNA from three additional and geographically distinct brown bear populations, including two that lived temporally close to the peak of the last ice age. We find evidence of admixture in all three populations, suggesting that admixture between these species has been common in their recent evolutionary history. In addition, analyses of ten fossil bears from the now-extinct Irish population indicate that admixture peaked during the last ice age, whereas brown bear and polar bear ranges overlapped. Following this peak, the proportion of polar bear ancestry in Irish brown bears declined rapidly until their extinction. Our results support a model in which ice age climate change created geographically widespread conditions conducive to admixture between polar bears and brown bears, as is again occurring today. We postulate that this model will be informative for many admixing species pairs impacted by climate change. Our results highlight the power of paleogenomics to reveal patterns of evolutionary change that are otherwise masked in contemporary data.

Correlation of Ice-Rafted Detritus in South Atlantic Sediments with Climate Proxies in Polar Ice over the Last Glacial Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sharon L. Kanfoush

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Previous study identified 6–7 millennial-scale episodes of South Atlantic ice-rafted sediment deposition (SA events during the glaciation. Questions remain, however, regarding their origin, significance for sea-ice and/or Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, and relationship to climate. Here I correlate sediment core (TTN057–21 SA events to Greenland and Antarctic ice using two independent methods, stable isotopes and geomagnetic paleointensity, placing SA events in the context of polar climate change in both hemispheres. Marine isotopic stage (MIS 3 SA events generally coincided with Greenland interstadials and with cooling following Antarctic warm events (A1-A4. This anti-phase behavior is best illustrated when SA0 coincided with both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Bolling-Allerod warming in Greenland. Moreover, SA events coincide with sea-level rises during the deglaciation (mwp1A and MIS 3 (30.4, 38.3, 43.7, 51.5 ka, implying unpinning of grounded Weddell Sea region ice masses discharged debris-laden bergs that had a chilling effect on South Atlantic surface temperatures.

On the relationship of polar mesospheric cloud ice water content, particle radius and mesospheric temperature and its use in multi-dimensional models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. J. Jensen

2009-11-01

Full Text Available The distribution of ice layers in the polar summer mesosphere (called polar mesospheric clouds or PMCs is sensitive to background atmospheric conditions and therefore affected by global-scale dynamics. To investigate this coupling it is necessary to simulate the global distribution of PMCs within a 3-dimensional (3-D model that couples large-scale dynamics with cloud microphysics. However, modeling PMC microphysics within 3-D global chemistry climate models (GCCM is a challenge due to the high computational cost associated with particle following (Lagrangian or sectional microphysical calculations. By characterizing the relationship between the PMC effective radius, ice water content (iwc, and local temperature (T from an ensemble of simulations from the sectional microphysical model, the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA, we determined that these variables can be described by a robust empirical formula. The characterized relationship allows an estimate of an altitude distribution of PMC effective radius in terms of local temperature and iwc. For our purposes we use this formula to predict an effective radius as part of a bulk parameterization of PMC microphysics in a 3-D GCCM to simulate growth, sublimation and sedimentation of ice particles without keeping track of the time history of each ice particle size or particle size bin. This allows cost effective decadal scale PMC simulations in a 3-D GCCM to be performed. This approach produces realistic PMC simulations including estimates of the optical properties of PMCs. We validate the relationship with PMC data from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE.

Simulating Arctic clouds during Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE)

Science.gov (United States)

Bromwich, D. H.; Hines, K. M.; Wang, S. H.

2015-12-01

The representation within global and regional models of the extensive low-level cloud cover over polar oceans remains a critical challenge for quantitative studies and forecasts of polar climate. In response, the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) is used to simulate the meteorology, boundary layer, and Arctic clouds during the September-October 2014 Arctic Radiation- IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) project. Polar WRF was developed with several adjustments to the sea ice thermodynamics in WRF. ARISE was based out of Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, Alaska and included multiple instrumented C-130 aircraft flights over open water and sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Arctic boundary layer clouds were frequently observed within cold northeasterly flow over the open ocean and ice. Preliminary results indicate these clouds were primarily liquid water, with characteristics differing between open water and sea ice surfaces. Simulated clouds are compared to ARISE observations. Furthermore, Polar WRF simulations are run for the August-September 2008 Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) for comparison to the ARISE. Preliminary analysis shows that simulated low-level water clouds over the sea ice are too extensive during the the second half of the ASCOS field program. Alternatives and improvements to the Polar WRF cloud schemes are considered. The goal is to use the ARISE and ASCOS observations to achieve an improved polar supplement to the WRF code for open water and sea ice that can be provided to the Polar WRF community.

Response timescales for martian ice masses and implications for ice flow on Mars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koutnik, Michelle Rebecca; Waddington, E.D.; Winebrener, D.P.

2013-01-01

a predictable shape, which is a function of ice temperature, ice rheology, and surface mass-exchange rate. In addition, the time for surface-shape adjustment is shorter than the characteristic time for significant deformation or displacement of internal layers within a flowing ice mass; as a result, surface......On Earth and on Mars, ice masses experience changes in precipitation, temperature, and radiation. In a new climate state, flowing ice masses will adjust in length and in thickness, and this response toward a new steady state has a characteristic timescale. However, a flowing ice mass has...... topography is more diagnostic of flow than are internal-layer shapes. Because the shape of Gemina Lingula, North Polar Layered Deposits indicates that it flowed at some time in the past, we use its current topography to infer characteristics of those past ice conditions, or past climate conditions, in which...

Gypsum crystals observed in experimental and natural sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Geilfus, N.-X.; Galley, R. J.; Cooper, M.; Halden, N.; Hare, A.; Wang, F.; Søgaard, D. H.; Rysgaard, S.

2013-12-01

gypsum has been predicted to precipitate in sea ice, it has never been observed. Here we provide the first report on gypsum precipitation in both experimental and natural sea ice. Crystals were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis. Based on their apparent distinguishing characteristics, the gypsum crystals were identified as being authigenic. The FREeZing CHEMistry (FREZCHEM) model results support our observations of both gypsum and ikaite precipitation at typical in situ sea ice temperatures and confirms the "Gitterman pathway" where gypsum is predicted to precipitate. The occurrence of authigenic gypsum in sea ice during its formation represents a new observation of precipitate formation and potential marine deposition in polar seas.

Model for Predicting DC Flashover Voltage of Pre-Contaminated and Ice-Covered Long Insulator Strings under Low Air Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhijin Zhang

2011-04-01

Full Text Available In the current study, a multi-arc predicting model for DC critical flashover voltage of iced and pre-contaminated long insulator strings under low atmospheric pressure is developed. The model is composed of a series of different polarity surface arcs, icicle-icicle air gap arcs, and residual layer resistance. The calculation method of the residual resistance of the ice layer under DC multi-arc condition is established. To validate the model, 7-unit and 15-unit insulator strings were tested in a multi-function artificial climate chamber under the coexistent conditions of low air pressure, pollution, and icing. The test results showed that the values calculated by the model satisfactorily agreed with those experimentally measured, with the errors within the range of 10%, validating the rationality of the model.

Estimation of degree of sea ice ridging based on dual-polarized C-band SAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Gegiuc, Alexandru; Similä, Markku; Karvonen, Juha; Lensu, Mikko; Mäkynen, Marko; Vainio, Jouni

2018-01-01

For ship navigation in the Baltic Sea ice, parameters such as ice edge, ice concentration, ice thickness and degree of ridging are usually reported daily in manually prepared ice charts. These charts provide icebreakers with essential information for route optimization and fuel calculations. However, manual ice charting requires long analysis times, and detailed analysis of large areas (e.g. Arctic Ocean) is not feasible. Here, we propose a method for automatic estimation of the degree of ice ridging in the Baltic Sea region, based on RADARSAT-2 C-band dual-polarized (HH/HV channels) SAR texture features and sea ice concentration information extracted from Finnish ice charts. The SAR images were first segmented and then several texture features were extracted for each segment. Using the random forest method, we classified them into four classes of ridging intensity and compared them to the reference data extracted from the digitized ice charts. The overall agreement between the ice-chart-based degree of ice ridging and the automated results varied monthly, being 83, 63 and 81 % in January, February and March 2013, respectively. The correspondence between the degree of ice ridging reported in the ice charts and the actual ridge density was validated with data collected during a field campaign in March 2011. In principle the method can be applied to the seasonal sea ice regime in the Arctic Ocean.

A Comparative Study Using CFD to Predict Iced Airfoil Aerodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, x.; Li, Y.; Chen, H.; Addy, H. E.; Choo, Y. K.; Shih, T. I-P.

2005-01-01

WIND, Fluent, and PowerFLOW were used to predict the lift, drag, and moment coefficients of a business-jet airfoil with a rime ice (rough and jagged, but no protruding horns) and with a glaze ice (rough and jagged end has two or more protruding horns) for angles of attack from zero to and after stall. The performance of the following turbulence models were examined by comparing predictions with available experimental data. Spalart-Allmaras (S-A), RNG k-epsilon, shear-stress transport, v(sup 2)-f, and a differential Reynolds stress model with and without non-equilibrium wall functions. For steady RANS simulations, WIND and FLUENT were found to give nearly identical results if the grid about the iced airfoil, the turbulence model, and the order of accuracy of the numerical schemes used are the same. The use of wall functions was found to be acceptable for the rime ice configuration and the flow conditions examined. For rime ice, the S-A model was found to predict accurately until near the stall angle. For glaze ice, the CFD predictions were much less satisfactory for all turbulence models and codes investigated because of the large separated region produced by the horns. For unsteady RANS, WIND and FLUENT did not provide better results. PowerFLOW, based on the Lattice Boltzmann method, gave excellent results for the lift coefficient at and near stall for the rime ice, where the flow is inherently unsteady.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Sea Ice Prediction Has Easy and Difficult Years

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Lawrence C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Cutler, Matthew; Kay, Jennifer; Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Wiggins, Helen

2014-01-01

Arctic sea ice follows an annual cycle, reaching its low point in September each year. The extent of sea ice remaining at this low point has been trending downwards for decades as the Arctic warms. Around the long-term downward trend, however, there is significant variation in the minimum extent from one year to the next. Accurate forecasts of yearly conditions would have great value to Arctic residents, shipping companies, and other stakeholders and are the subject of much current research. Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) (http://www.arcus.org/search-program) has invited predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community. Individual predictions, based on a variety of approaches, are solicited in three cycles each year in early June, July, and August. (SEARCH 2013).

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players.

Science.gov (United States)

Janot, Jeffrey M; Beltz, Nicholas M; Dalleck, Lance D

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key pointsThe 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed.In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity.Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches can

On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Harrington, J. Y.

2017-12-01

Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall

Polar Ice Caps: a Canary for the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Honsaker, W.; Lowell, T. V.; Sagredo, E.; Kelly, M. A.; Hall, B. L.

2010-12-01

Ice caps are glacier masses that are highly sensitive to climate change. Because of their hypsometry they can have a binary state. When relatively slight changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) either intersect or rise above the land the ice can become established or disappear. Thus these upland ice masses have a fast response time. Here we consider a way to extract the ELA signal from independent ice caps adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. It may be that these ice caps are sensitive trackers of climate change that also impact the ice sheet margin. One example is the Istorvet Ice Cap located in Liverpool Land, East Greenland (70.881°N, 22.156°W). The ice cap topography and the underlying bedrock surface dips to the north, with peak elevation of the current ice ranging in elevation from 1050 to 745 m.a.s.l. On the eastern side of the ice mass the outlet glaciers extending down to sea level. The western margin has several small lobes in topographic depressions, with the margin reaching down to 300 m.a.s.l. Topographic highs separate the ice cap into at least 5 main catchments, each having a pair of outlet lobes toward either side of the ice cap. Because of the regional bedrock slope each catchment has its own elevation range. Therefore, as the ELA changes it is possible for some catchments of the ice cap to experience positive mass balance while others have a negative balance. Based on weather observations we estimate the present day ELA to be ~1000 m.a.s.l, meaning mass balance is negative for the majority of the ice cap. By tracking glacier presence/absence in these different catchments, we can reconstruct small changes in the ELA. Another example is the High Ice Cap (informal name) in Milne Land (70.903°N, 25.626°W, 1080 m), East Greenland. Here at least 4 unconformities in ice layers found near the southern margin of the ice cap record changing intervals of accumulation and ablation. Therefore, this location may also be sensitive to slight

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hashino, Tempei

2007-05-01

This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2018-02-12

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

effrey M. Janot, Nicholas M. Beltz, Lance D. Dalleck

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15 and women (n = 11 hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ, 40-yd dash (36.58m, 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop, and 1.5 mile (2.4km run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m, VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1 slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run, 2 fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time, 3 average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time - (0.63 x VJ + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time, and 4 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ - (0.01 x % drop. It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players.

The Relevance of Grain Dissection for Grain Size Reduction in Polar Ice: Insights from Numerical Models and Ice Core Microstructure Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Steinbach

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The flow of ice depends on the properties of the aggregate of individual ice crystals, such as grain size or lattice orientation distributions. Therefore, an understanding of the processes controlling ice micro-dynamics is needed to ultimately develop a physically based macroscopic ice flow law. We investigated the relevance of the process of grain dissection as a grain-size-modifying process in natural ice. For that purpose, we performed numerical multi-process microstructure modeling and analyzed microstructure and crystallographic orientation maps from natural deep ice-core samples from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM project. Full crystallographic orientations measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD have been used together with c-axis orientations using an optical technique (Fabric Analyser. Grain dissection is a feature of strain-induced grain boundary migration. During grain dissection, grain boundaries bulge into a neighboring grain in an area of high dislocation energy and merge with the opposite grain boundary. This splits the high dislocation-energy grain into two parts, effectively decreasing the local grain size. Currently, grain size reduction in ice is thought to be achieved by either the progressive transformation from dislocation walls into new high-angle grain boundaries, called subgrain rotation or polygonisation, or bulging nucleation that is assisted by subgrain rotation. Both our time-resolved numerical modeling and NEEM ice core samples show that grain dissection is a common mechanism during ice deformation and can provide an efficient process to reduce grain sizes and counter-act dynamic grain-growth in addition to polygonisation or bulging nucleation. Thus, our results show that solely strain-induced boundary migration, in absence of subgrain rotation, can reduce grain sizes in polar ice, in particular if strain energy gradients are high. We describe the microstructural characteristics that can be

The relevance of grain dissection for grain size reduction in polar ice: insights from numerical models and ice core microstructure analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Steinbach, Florian; Kuiper, Ernst-Jan N.; Eichler, Jan; Bons, Paul D.; Drury, Martyn R.; Griera, Albert; Pennock, Gill M.; Weikusat, Ilka

2017-09-01

The flow of ice depends on the properties of the aggregate of individual ice crystals, such as grain size or lattice orientation distributions. Therefore, an understanding of the processes controlling ice micro-dynamics is needed to ultimately develop a physically based macroscopic ice flow law. We investigated the relevance of the process of grain dissection as a grain-size-modifying process in natural ice. For that purpose, we performed numerical multi-process microstructure modelling and analysed microstructure and crystallographic orientation maps from natural deep ice-core samples from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) project. Full crystallographic orientations measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) have been used together with c-axis orientations using an optical technique (Fabric Analyser). Grain dissection is a feature of strain-induced grain boundary migration. During grain dissection, grain boundaries bulge into a neighbouring grain in an area of high dislocation energy and merge with the opposite grain boundary. This splits the high dislocation-energy grain into two parts, effectively decreasing the local grain size. Currently, grain size reduction in ice is thought to be achieved by either the progressive transformation from dislocation walls into new high-angle grain boundaries, called subgrain rotation or polygonisation, or bulging nucleation that is assisted by subgrain rotation. Both our time-resolved numerical modelling and NEEM ice core samples show that grain dissection is a common mechanism during ice deformation and can provide an efficient process to reduce grain sizes and counter-act dynamic grain-growth in addition to polygonisation or bulging nucleation. Thus, our results show that solely strain-induced boundary migration, in absence of subgrain rotation, can reduce grain sizes in polar ice, in particular if strain energy gradients are high. We describe the microstructural characteristics that can be used to

Comparison of CO/sub 2/ measurements by two laboratories on air from bubbles in polar ice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barnola, J.M.; Raynaud, D.; Neftel, A.; Oeschger, H.

1983-06-02

The CO/sub 2/ content of air enclosed in bubbles in polar ice has been reported by two laboratories (in Grenoble and Bern) to be representative of the atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration at the time the ice was formed. Such ice core studies indicate lower concentrations in ice formed at the end of the ice age, around 18,000 yr BP, and several explanations have been proposed for such a change. Both laboratories are currently measuring various ice cores in order to determine the pre-AD 1850 CO/sub 2/ level in the atmosphere, which relates to the partitioning of anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ among the atmospheric, biospheric and oceanic reservoirs. The two laboratories use different ice cores and different analytical procedures and, therefore, there is a need to know to what extent the measurements are quantitatively comparable. The results are presented of a comparison between the two laboratories based on measurements from the same ice core sections, which indicate that the measurements can be compared with great confidence. The results suggest that the mean CO/sub 2/ level recorded by Antartic ice for the period 800-2500 yr BP is about 260 p.p.m.v.

Organic molecules in the polar ice: from chemical analysis to environmental proxies

Science.gov (United States)

Barbante, Carlo; Zennaro, Piero; Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Benton, Alisa K.; Wolff, Eric W.; Kalberer, Markus; Kirchgeorg, Torben; Zangrando, Roberta; Barbaro, Elena; Gambaro, Andrea

2015-04-01

The molecular and isotopic compositions of organic matter buried in ice contains information that helps reconstruct past environmental conditions, evaluate histories of climate change, and assess impacts of humans on ecosystems. In recent years novel analytical techniques were developed to quantify molecular compounds in ice cores. As an example, biomass burning markers, including monosaccharide anhydrides, lightweight carboxylic acids, lignin and resin pyrolysis products, black carbon, and charcoal records help in reconstructing past fire activity across seasonal to millennial time scales. Terrestrial biomarkers, such as plant waxes (e.g. long-chain n-alkanes) are also a promising paleo vegetation proxy in ice core studies. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are ubiquitous pollutants recently detected in ice cores. These hydrocarbons primarily originate from incomplete combustion of organic matter and fossil fuels (e.g. diesel engines, domestic heating, industrial combustion) and therefore can be tracers of past combustion activities. In order to be suitable for paloeclimate purposes, organic molecular markers detected in ice cores should include the following important features. Markers have to be stable under oxidizing atmospheric conditions, and ideally should not react with hydroxyl radicals, during their transport to polar regions. Organic markers must be released in large amounts in order to be detected at remote distances from the sources. Proxies must be specific, in order to differentiate them from other markers with multiple sources. The extraction of glaciochemical information from ice cores is challenging due to the low concentrations of some impurities, thereby demanding rigorous control of external contamination sources and sensitive analytical techniques. Here, we review the analysis and use of organic molecules in ice as proxies of important environmental and climatic processes.

Polar bear maternity denning in the Beaufort Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Amstrup, Steven C.; Gardner, Craig L.

1994-01-01

The distribution of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) is circumpolar in the NOrthern Hemisphere, but known locations of maternal dens are concentrated in relatively few, widely scattered locations. Denning is either uncommon or unknown within gaps. To understand effects of industrial development and propose increases in hunting, the temporal and spatial distribution of denning in the Beaufort Sea must be known. We caputred and radiocollared polar bears between 1981 and 1991 and determined tht denning in the Beaufort Sea region was sufficient to account for the estimated population there. Of 90 dend, 48 were on drifting pack ice, 38 on land, and 4 on land-fast ice. The portions of dens on land was higher (P= 0.029) in later compared with earlier years of the study. Bears denning on pack ice drifting as far as 997 km (x=385km) while in dens. there was no difference in cun production by bears denning on land and pack ice (P =0.66). Mean entry and exit dates were 11 November and 5 April for land dens and 22 November and 26 March for pack-ice dens. Female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea appeared to be isolated from those caught eat of Cape Bathurst in Canada. Of 35 polar bears that denned along the mainland coast of Alaska and Canada 80% denned between 137 00'W snf 146 59'W. Bears followed to >1 den did not reuse sites and consecutive dens were 20-1,304 km apart. However radio-collared bears are largely faithful to substrate (pack-ice, land, and land-fast ice) and the general geographic area of previous dens. Bears denning on land may be vunerable to human activities such as hunting and industrial development. However, predictable denning chronology and alck of site fidelity indicate that many potential impacts on denning polar bears could be mitigated.

Mechanisms of basal ice formation in polar glaciers: An evaluation of the apron entrainment model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzsimons, Sean; Webb, Nicola; Mager, Sarah; MacDonell, Shelley; Lorrain, Regi; Samyn, Denis

2008-06-01

Previous studies of polar glaciers have argued that basal ice can form when these glaciers override and entrain ice marginal aprons that accumulate adjacent to steep ice cliffs. To test this idea, we have studied the morphology, structure, composition, and deformation of the apron and basal ice at the terminus of Victoria Upper Glacier in the McMurdo dry valleys, which are located on the western coast of the Ross Sea at 77°S in southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. Our results show that the apron has two structural elements: an inner element that consists of strongly foliated ice that has a steep up-glacier dip, and an outer element that lacks a consistent foliation and has a down-glacier, slope-parallel dip. Although strain measurements show that the entire apron is deforming, the inner element is characterized by high strain rates, whereas relatively low rates of strain characterize the outer part of the apron. Co-isotopic analyses of the ice, together with analysis of solute chemistry and sedimentary characteristics, show that the apron is compositionally different from the basal ice. Our observations show that aprons may become deformed and partially entrained by advancing glaciers. However, such an ice marginal process does not provide a satisfactory explanation for the origin of basal ice observed at the ice margin. Our interpretation of the origin of basal ice is that it is formed by subglacial processes, which are likely to include deformation and entrainment of subglacial permafrost.

Ice Velocity Variations of the Polar Record Glacier (East Antarctica Using a Rotation-Invariant Feature-Tracking Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tingting Liu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the ice velocity changes from 2004 to 2015 of the Polar Record Glacier (PRG in East Antarctica were investigated based on a feature-tracking method using Landsat-7 enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+ and Landsat-8 operational land imager (OLI images. The flow field of the PRG curves make it difficult to generate ice velocities in some areas using the traditional normalized cross-correlation (NCC-based feature-tracking method. Therefore, a rotation-invariant parameter from scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT is introduced to build a novel rotation-invariant feature-tracking approach. The validation was performed based on multi-source images and the making earth system data records for use in research environments (MEaSUREs interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR-based Antarctica ice velocity map data set. The results indicate that the proposed method is able to measure the ice velocity in more areas and performs as well as the traditional NCC-based feature-tracking method. The sequential ice velocities obtained present the variations in the PRG during this period. Although the maximum ice velocity of the frontal margin of the PRG and the frontal iceberg reached about 900 m/a and 1000 m/a, respectively, the trend from 2004 to 2015 showed no significant change. Under the interaction of the Polar Times Glacier and the Polarforschung Glacier, both the direction and the displacement of the PRG were influenced. This impact also led to higher velocities in the western areas of the PRG than in the eastern areas. In addition, elevation changes and frontal iceberg calving also impacted the ice velocity of the PRG.

A gas extraction system for the measurement of carbon dioxide and carbon isotopes in polar ice cores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steig, E.

1992-06-01

Knowledge of the distribution of Carbon 13 in the glacial ocean, atmosphere, and biosphere is important to understanding the causes of glacial/interglacial changes in atmospheric CO 2 levels. Although deep-ocean Carbon 13 values are well-constrained by ocean sediment studies, model-based estimates of changes in the carbon budget for the biosphere and atmosphere vary considerably. Measurement of atmospheric Carbon 13 in CO 2 in ice cores will provide additional constraints on this budget and will also improve estimates of changes in the ocean surface layer Carbon 13. Direct measurement of ancient atmospheric Carbon 13 can be accomplished through polar ice core studies. A gas-extraction line for ice cores has been designed and constructed with particular attention to the specific difficulties of measuring Carbon 13 in CO 2 . The ice is shaved, rather than crushed, to minimize fractionation effects resulting from gas travel through long air-paths in the ice. To minimize the risk of isotopic contamination and fractionation within the vacuum line, CO 2 is separated immediately from the air; the CO 2 concentration is then measured by a simple pressure/volume comparison rather than by gas chromatography or spectroscopy. Measurements from Greenland ice core samples give an average value of 280±2 ppM CO 2 for preindustrial samples, demonstrating that the extraction system gives accurate, precise determinations Of CO 2 concentrations. Measurement of δ 13 C from polar ice samples has not been achieved at this time. However, results on standard air samples demonstrate a precision for δ 13 C of less than 0.2 per-thousand at the 95% confidence level

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-Y. Yang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years, but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

Sea ice-atmospheric interaction: Application of multispectral satellite data in polar surface energy flux estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Steffen, Konrad; Key, J.; Maslanik, J.; Schweiger, A.

1993-01-01

This is the third annual report on: Sea Ice-Atmosphere Interaction - Application of Multispectral Satellite Data in Polar Surface Energy Flux Estimates. The main emphasis during the past year was on: radiative flux estimates from satellite data; intercomparison of satellite and ground-based cloud amounts; radiative cloud forcing; calibration of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) visible channels and comparison of two satellite derived albedo data sets; and on flux modeling for leads. Major topics covered are arctic clouds and radiation; snow and ice albedo, and leads and modeling.

Sea Ice Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Arrigo, Kevin R.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-05-12

The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of the ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.

10Be and δ2H in polar ice cores as a probe of the solar variability's influence on climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raisbeck, G.M.; Yiou, F.; Jouzel, J.; Domaine Univ., 38 - St-Martin-d'Heres; Petit, J.R.

1990-01-01

By using the technique of accelerator mass spectrometry, it is now possible to measure detailed profiles of cosmogenic (cosmic ray produced) 10 Be in polar ice cores. Recent work has demonstrated that these profiles contain information on solar activity, via its influence on the intensity of galactic cosmic rays arriving in the Earth's atmosphere. It has been known for some time that, as a result of temperature-dependent fractionation effects, the stable isotope profiles δ 2 O and δ 2 H in polar ice cores contain palaeoclimate information. Thus by comparing the 10 Be and stable isotope profiles in the same ice core, one can test the influence of solar variability on climate, and this independent of possible uncertainties in the absolute chronology of the records. We present here the results of such a comparison for two Antarctic ice cores; one from the South Pole, covering the past ca. 1000 years, and one from Dome C, covering the past ca. 3000 years. (author)

Identifying polar bear resource selection patterns to inform offshore development in a dynamic and changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Horne, Jon S.; Rode, Karyn D.; Regehr, Eric V.; Durner, George M.

2014-01-01

Although sea ice loss is the primary threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus), little can be done to mitigate its effects without global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Other factors, however, could exacerbate the impacts of sea ice loss on polar bears, such as exposure to increased industrial activity. The Arctic Ocean has enormous oil and gas potential, and its development is expected to increase in the coming decades. Estimates of polar bear resource selection will inform managers how bears use areas slated for oil development and to help guide conservation planning. We estimated temporally-varying resource selection patterns for non-denning adult female polar bears in the Chukchi Sea population (2008–2012) at two scales (i.e., home range and weekly steps) to identify factors predictive of polar bear use throughout the year, before any offshore development. From the best models at each scale, we estimated scale-integrated resource selection functions to predict polar bear space use across the population's range and determined when bears were most likely to use the region where offshore oil and gas development in the United States is slated to occur. Polar bears exhibited significant intra-annual variation in selection patterns at both scales but the strength and annual patterns of selection differed between scales for most variables. Bears were most likely to use the offshore oil and gas planning area during ice retreat and growth with the highest predicted use occurring in the southern portion of the planning area. The average proportion of predicted high-value habitat in the planning area was >15% of the total high-value habitat for the population during sea ice retreat and growth and reached a high of 50% during November 2010. Our results provide a baseline on which to judge future changes to non-denning adult female polar bear resource selection in the Chukchi Sea and help guide offshore development in the region. Lastly, our study provides a

Thermal behavior and ice-table depth within the north polar erg of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Mellon, Michael T.; Herkenhoff, Kenneth E.; Phillips, Roger J.; Davis, Brian J.; Ewer, Kenneth J.; Bowers, Lauren M.

2014-01-01

We fully resolve a long-standing thermal discrepancy concerning the north polar erg of Mars. Several recent studies have shown that the erg’s thermal properties are consistent with normal basaltic sand overlying shallow ground ice or ice-cemented sand. Our findings bolster that conclusion by thoroughly characterizing the thermal behavior of the erg, demonstrating that other likely forms of physical heterogeneity play only a minor role, and obviating the need to invoke exotic materials. Thermal inertia as calculated from orbital temperature observations of the dunes has previously been found to be more consistent with dust-sized materials than with sand. Since theory and laboratory data show that dunes will only form out of sand-sized particles, exotic sand-sized agglomerations of dust have been invoked to explain the low values of thermal inertia. However, the polar dunes exhibit the same darker appearance and color as that of dunes found elsewhere on the planet that have thermal inertia consistent with normal sand-sized basaltic grains, whereas Martian dust deposits are generally lighter and redder. The alternative explanation for the discrepancy as a thermal effect of a shallow ice table is supported by our analysis of observations from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer and the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System and by forward modeling of physical heterogeneity. In addition, our results exclude a uniform composition of dark dust-sized materials, and they show that the thermal effects of the dune slopes and bright interdune materials evident in high-resolution images cannot account for the erg’s thermal behavior.

Thermal behavior and ice-table depth within the north polar erg of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Mellon, Michael T.; Herkenhoff, Kenneth E.; Phillips, Roger J.; Davis, Brian J.; Ewer, Kenneth J.; Bowers, Lauren M.

2014-02-01

We fully resolve a long-standing thermal discrepancy concerning the north polar erg of Mars. Several recent studies have shown that the erg's thermal properties are consistent with normal basaltic sand overlying shallow ground ice or ice-cemented sand. Our findings bolster that conclusion by thoroughly characterizing the thermal behavior of the erg, demonstrating that other likely forms of physical heterogeneity play only a minor role, and obviating the need to invoke exotic materials. Thermal inertia as calculated from orbital temperature observations of the dunes has previously been found to be more consistent with dust-sized materials than with sand. Since theory and laboratory data show that dunes will only form out of sand-sized particles, exotic sand-sized agglomerations of dust have been invoked to explain the low values of thermal inertia. However, the polar dunes exhibit the same darker appearance and color as that of dunes found elsewhere on the planet that have thermal inertia consistent with normal sand-sized basaltic grains, whereas Martian dust deposits are generally lighter and redder. The alternative explanation for the discrepancy as a thermal effect of a shallow ice table is supported by our analysis of observations from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer and the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System and by forward modeling of physical heterogeneity. In addition, our results exclude a uniform composition of dark dust-sized materials, and they show that the thermal effects of the dune slopes and bright interdune materials evident in high-resolution images cannot account for the erg's thermal behavior.

What to eat now? Shifts in polar bear diet during the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Gormezano, Linda J; Rockwell, Robert F

2013-01-01

Under current climate trends, spring ice breakup in Hudson Bay is advancing rapidly, leaving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) less time to hunt seals during the spring when they accumulate the majority of their annual fat reserves. For this reason, foods that polar bears consume during the ice-free season may become increasingly important in alleviating nutritional stress from lost seal hunting opportunities. Defining how the terrestrial diet might have changed since the onset of rapid climate change is an important step in understanding how polar bears may be reacting to climate change. We characterized the current terrestrial diet of polar bears in western Hudson Bay by evaluating the contents of passively sampled scat and comparing it to a similar study conducted 40 years ago. While the two terrestrial diets broadly overlap, polar bears currently appear to be exploiting increasingly abundant resources such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and newly available resources such as eggs. This opportunistic shift is similar to the diet mixing strategy common among other Arctic predators and bear species. We discuss whether the observed diet shift is solely a response to a nutritional stress or is an expression of plastic foraging behavior. PMID:24223286

Comparison of Single and Dual Polarized Envisat Asar Data with Laser Scanner Data of Saa Ice Freeboard in Fram Strait

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Leif Toudal; Kloster, Kjell; Hvidegaard, Sine Munk

2005-01-01

In this project we have produced co-registered datasets of laser scanner and ENVISAT ASAR AP data. A comparison of ENVISAT ASAR Alternate Polarization (AP) mode (HH+VV) backscatter coefficient values and polarization ratios with ice freeboard height measured with the KMS laser scanner is made. Th...

Polar bears at risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norris, S.; Rosentrater, L.; Eid, P.M. [WWF International Arctic Programme, Oslo (Norway)

2002-05-01

Polar bears, the world's largest terrestrial carnivore, spend much of their lives on the arctic sea ice. This is where they hunt and move between feeding, denning, and resting areas. The world population, estimated at 22,000 bears, is made up of 20 relatively distinct populations varying in size from a few hundred to a few thousand animals. About 60 per cent of all polar bears are found in Canada. In general, the status of this species is stable, although there are pronounced differences between populations. Reductions in the extent and thickness of sea ice has lead the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group to describe climate change as one of the major threats facing polar bears today. Though the long-term effects of climate change will vary in different areas of the Arctic, impacts on the condition and reproductive success of polar bears and their prey are likely to be negative. Longer ice-free periods resulting from earlier break-up of sea ice in the spring and later formation in the fall is already impacting polar bears in the southern portions of their range. In Canada's Hudson Bay, for example, bears hunt on the ice through the winter and into early summer, after which the ice melts completely, forcing bears ashore to fast on stored fat until freeze-up in the fall. The time bears have on the ice to hunt and build up their body condition is cut short when the ice melts early. Studies from Hudson Bay show that for every week earlier that ice break-up occurs, bears will come ashore 10 kg lighter and in poorer condition. It is likely that populations of polar bears dividing their time between land and sea will be severely reduced and local extinctions may occur as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and sea ice melts. Expected changes in regional weather patterns will also impact polar bears. Rain in the late winter can cause maternity dens to collapse before females and cubs have departed, thus exposing occupants to the elements and to predators. Such

Longer ice-free seasons increase the risk of nest depredation by polar bears for colonial breeding birds in the Canadian Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, H Grant; Smith, Paul A; Gaston, Anthony J; Forbes, Mark R

2014-03-22

Northern polar regions have warmed more than other parts of the globe potentially amplifying the effects of climate change on biological communities. Ice-free seasons are becoming longer in many areas, which has reduced the time available to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to hunt for seals and hampered bears' ability to meet their energetic demands. In this study, we examined polar bears' use of an ancillary prey resource, eggs of colonial nesting birds, in relation to diminishing sea ice coverage in a low latitude region of the Canadian Arctic. Long-term monitoring reveals that bear incursions onto common eider (Somateria mollissima) and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) nesting colonies have increased greater than sevenfold since the 1980s and that there is an inverse correlation between ice season length and bear presence. In surveys encompassing more than 1000 km of coastline during years of record low ice coverage (2010-2012), we encountered bears or bear sign on 34% of eider colonies and estimated greater egg loss as a consequence of depredation by bears than by more customary nest predators, such as foxes and gulls. Our findings demonstrate how changes in abiotic conditions caused by climate change have altered predator-prey dynamics and are leading to cascading ecological impacts in Arctic ecosystems.

A study of the decontamination procedures used for chemical analysis of polar deep ice cores

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takayuki Miyake

2009-11-01

Full Text Available We investigated the decontamination procedures used on polar deep ice cores before chemical analyses such as measurements of the concentrations of iron species and dust (microparticles. We optimized cutting and melting protocols for decontamination using chemically ultraclean polyethylene bags and simulated ice samples made from ultrapure water. For dust and ion species including acetate, which represented a high level of contamination, we were able to decrease contamination to below several μg l^ for ion concentrations and below 10000 particles ml^ for the dust concentration. These concentration levels of ion species and dust are assumed to be present in the Dome Fuji ice core during interglacial periods. Decontamination of the ice core was achieved by cutting away approximately 3 mm of the outside of a sample and by melting away approximately 30% of a sample's weight. Furthermore, we also report the preparation protocols for chemical analyses of the 2nd Dome Fuji ice core, including measurements of ion and dust concentrations, pH, electric conductivity (EC, and stable isotope ratios of water (δD and δO, based on the results of the investigation of the decontamination procedures.

The Particle Habit Imaging and Polar Scattering probe PHIPS: First Stereo-Imaging and Polar Scattering Function Measurements of Ice Particles

Science.gov (United States)

Abdelmonem, A.; Schnaiter, M.; Schön, R.; Leisner, T.

2009-04-01

Cirrus clouds impact climate by their influence on the water vapour distribution in the upper troposphere. Moreover, they directly affect the radiative balance of the Earth's atmosphere by the scattering of incoming solar radiation and the absorption of outgoing thermal emission. The link between the microphysical properties of ice cloud particles and the radiative forcing of the clouds is not as yet well understood and the influence of the shapes of ice crystals on the radiative budget of cirrus clouds is currently under debate. PHIPS is a new experimental device for the stereo-imaging of individual cloud particles and the simultaneous measurement of the polar scattering function of the same particle. PHIPS uses an automated particle event triggering system that ensures that only those particles are captured which are located in the field of view - depth of field volume of the microscope unit. Efforts were made to improve the resolution power of the microscope unit down to about 3 µm and to facilitate a 3D morphology impression of the ice crystals. This is realised by a stereo-imaging set up composed of two identical microscopes which image the same particle under an angular viewing distance of 30°. The scattering part of PHIPS enables the measurement of the polar light scattering function of cloud particles with an angular resolution of 1° for forward scattering directions (from 1° to 10°) and 8° for side and backscattering directions (from 18° to 170°). For each particle the light scattering pulse per channel is stored either as integrated intensity or as time resolved intensity function which opens a new category of data analysis concerning details of the particle movement. PHIPS is the first step to PHIPS-HALO which is one of the in situ ice particle and water vapour instruments that are currently under development for the new German research aircraft HALO. The instrument was tested in the ice cloud characterisation campaign HALO-02 which was conducted

An Ultra-Wideband, Microwave Radar for Measuring Snow Thickness on Sea Ice and Mapping Near-Surface Internal Layers in Polar Firn

Science.gov (United States)

Panzer, Ben; Gomez-Garcia, Daniel; Leuschen, Carl; Paden, John; Rodriguez-Morales, Fernando; Patel, Azsa; Markus, Thorsten; Holt, Benjamin; Gogineni, Prasad

2013-01-01

Sea ice is generally covered with snow, which can vary in thickness from a few centimeters to >1 m. Snow cover acts as a thermal insulator modulating the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it impacts sea-ice growth rates and overall thickness, a key indicator of climate change in polar regions. Snow depth is required to estimate sea-ice thickness using freeboard measurements made with satellite altimeters. The snow cover also acts as a mechanical load that depresses ice freeboard (snow and ice above sea level). Freeboard depression can result in flooding of the snow/ice interface and the formation of a thick slush layer, particularly in the Antarctic sea-ice cover. The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an ultra-wideband, microwave radar capable of operation on long-endurance aircraft to characterize the thickness of snow over sea ice. The low-power, 100mW signal is swept from 2 to 8GHz allowing the air/snow and snow/ ice interfaces to be mapped with 5 c range resolution in snow; this is an improvement over the original system that worked from 2 to 6.5 GHz. From 2009 to 2012, CReSIS successfully operated the radar on the NASA P-3B and DC-8 aircraft to collect data on snow-covered sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic for NASA Operation IceBridge. The radar was found capable of snow depth retrievals ranging from 10cm to >1 m. We also demonstrated that this radar can be used to map near-surface internal layers in polar firn with fine range resolution. Here we describe the instrument design, characteristics and performance of the radar.

Cold-Based Glaciation on Mercury: Accumulation and Flow of Ice in Permanently-Shadowed Circum-Polar Crater Interiors

Science.gov (United States)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.

2018-05-01

Examining the potential for dynamic flow of ice deposits in permanently-shadowed craters, it is determined that the cold environment of the polar craters yields very small velocities and deformation is minimal on a time scale of millions of years.

Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2012-06-15

Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

Journey to the centre of the ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvenegård-Lassen, Kirsten

2016-01-01

to the Eemian period. This time travel ultimately aims at predicting the climate of the future. While the heroic polar expeditions of the past ventured into unknown spaces horizontally, the secrets of the frontier are now vertically stored in the ice cores. In Secrets of the Ice, five videos produced for public...... dissemination, Greenland is displayed as an empty, frozen space, waiting to be conquered by scientists. Resonating with classical Arctic explorer myths, this conquest has to overcome the difficulties presented by a harsh wilderness landscape. The article situates the glaciological project in Greenland within...

Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Martin

1999-11-01

Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

Radiative transfer in atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Z.; Stamnes, K.; Weeks, W.F. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Tsay, S.C. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

1996-04-01

Radiative energy is critical in controlling the heat and mass balance of sea ice, which significantly affects the polar climate. In the polar oceans, light transmission through the atmosphere and sea ice is essential to the growth of plankton and algae and, consequently, to the microbial community both in the ice and in the ocean. Therefore, the study of radiative transfer in the polar atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean system is of particular importance. Lacking a properly coupled radiative transfer model for the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system, a consistent study of the radiative transfer in the polar atmosphere, snow, sea ice, and ocean system has not been undertaken before. The radiative transfer processes in the atmosphere and in the ice and ocean have been treated separately. Because the radiation processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean depend on each other, this separate treatment is inconsistent. To study the radiative interaction between the atmosphere, clouds, snow, sea ice, and ocean, a radiative transfer model with consistent treatment of radiation in the coupled system is needed and is under development.

Magnetic Coulomb phase in the spin ice Ho2Ti2O7.

Science.gov (United States)

Fennell, T; Deen, P P; Wildes, A R; Schmalzl, K; Prabhakaran, D; Boothroyd, A T; Aldus, R J; McMorrow, D F; Bramwell, S T

2009-10-16

Spin-ice materials are magnetic substances in which the spin directions map onto hydrogen positions in water ice. Their low-temperature magnetic state has been predicted to be a phase that obeys a Gauss' law and supports magnetic monopole excitations: in short, a Coulomb phase. We used polarized neutron scattering to show that the spin-ice material Ho2Ti2O7 exhibits an almost perfect Coulomb phase. Our result proves the existence of such phases in magnetic materials and strongly supports the magnetic monopole theory of spin ice.

Modelling the viscoplastic behavior and the heterogeneous intracrystalline deformation of columnar ice polycrystals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebensohn, Ricardo A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Montagnat, Maurine [LGGE (FRANCE); Mansuy, Philippe [MICHELIN (FRANCE); Duval, Paul [LGGE (FRANCE); Philip, A [LGGE (FRANCE)

2008-01-01

A full-field formulation based on Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) has been adapted and used to predict the micromechanical fields that develop in columnar Ih ice polycrystals deforming in compression by dislocation creep. The predicted intragranular mechanical fields are in qualitative good agreement with experimental observations, in particular those involving the formation of shear and kink bands. These localization bands are associated with the large internal stresses that develop during creep in such anisotropic material, and their location, intensity, morphology and extension are found to depend strongly on the crystallographic orientation of the grains and on their interaction with neighbor crystals. The predictions of the model are also discussed in relation with the deformation of columnar sea and lake ice, and with the mechanical behavior of granular ice of glaciers and polar ice sheets, as well.

Evaluation of the limit ice thickness for the hull of various Finnish-Swedish ice class vessels navigating in the Russian Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pentti Kujala

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Selection of suitable ice class for ships operation is an important but not simple task. The increased exploitation of the Polar waters, both seasonal periods and geographical areas, as well as the introduction of new international design standards such as Polar Code, reduces the relevancy of using existing experience as basis for the selection, and new methods and knowledge have to be developed. This paper will analyse what can be the limiting ice thickness for ships navigating in the Russian Arctic and designed according to the Finnish-Swedish ice class rules. The permanent deformations of ice-strengthened shell structures for various ice classes is determined using MT Uikku as the typical size of a vessel navigating in ice. The ice load in various conditions is determined using the ARCDEV data from the winter 1998 as the basic database. By comparing the measured load in various ice conditions with the serviceability limit state of the structures, the limiting ice thickness for various ice classes is determined. The database for maximum loads includes 3-weeks ice load measurements during April 1998 on the Kara Sea mainly by icebreaker assistance. Gumbel 1 distribution is fitted on the measured 20 min maximum values and the data is divided into various classes using ship speed, ice thickness and ice concentration as the main parameters. Results encouragingly show that present designs are safer than assumed in the Polar Code suggesting that assisted operation in Arctic conditions is feasible in rougher conditions than indicated in the Polar Code. Keywords: Loads, Serviceability, Limit ice thickness, Polar code

A new method based on low background instrumental neutron activation analysis for major, trace and ultra-trace element determination in atmospheric mineral dust from polar ice cores

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baccolo, Giovanni, E-mail: giovanni.baccolo@mib.infn.it [Graduate School in Polar Sciences, University of Siena, Via Laterina 8, 53100, Siena (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 1, 20126, Milano (Italy); INFN, Section of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy); Clemenza, Massimiliano [INFN, Section of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy); Department of Physics, University of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy); Delmonte, Barbara [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 1, 20126, Milano (Italy); Maffezzoli, Niccolò [Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, Juliane Maries Vej, 30, 2100, Copenhagen (Denmark); Nastasi, Massimiliano; Previtali, Ezio [INFN, Section of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy); Department of Physics, University of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy); Prata, Michele; Salvini, Andrea [LENA, University of Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Maggi, Valter [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 1, 20126, Milano (Italy); INFN, Section of Milano-Bicocca, P.zza della Scienza 3, 20126, Milano (Italy)

2016-05-30

Dust found in polar ice core samples present extremely low concentrations, in addition the availability of such samples is usually strictly limited. For these reasons the chemical and physical analysis of polar ice cores is an analytical challenge. In this work a new method based on low background instrumental neutron activation analysis (LB-INAA) for the multi-elemental characterization of the insoluble fraction of dust from polar ice cores is presented. Thanks to an accurate selection of the most proper materials and procedures it was possible to reach unprecedented analytical performances, suitable for ice core analyses. The method was applied to Antarctic ice core samples. Five samples of atmospheric dust (μg size) from ice sections of the Antarctic Talos Dome ice core were prepared and analyzed. A set of 37 elements was quantified, spanning from all the major elements (Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti, Mn and Fe) to trace ones, including 10 (La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Ho, Tm, Yb and Lu) of the 14 natural occurring lanthanides. The detection limits are in the range of 10{sup −13}–10{sup −6} g, improving previous results of 1–3 orders of magnitude depending on the element; uncertainties lies between 4% and 60%. - Highlights: • A new method based on neutron activation for the multi-elemental characterization of atmospheric dust entrapped in polar ice cores is proposed. • 37 elements were quantified in μg size dust samples with detection limits ranging from 10{sup −13} to 10{sup −6} g. • A low background approach and a clean analytical protocol improved INAA performances to unprecedented levels for multi-elemental analyses.

Fine-Scale Layering of Mars Polar Deposits and Signatures of Ice Content in Nonpolar Material From Multiband SHARAD Data Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Bruce A.; Morgan, Gareth A.

2018-02-01

The variation of Shallow Radar (SHARAD) echo strength with frequency reveals material dielectric losses and polar layer properties. Loss tangents for Elysium and Amazonis Planitiae deposits are consistent with volcanic flows and sediments, while the Medusae Fossae Formation, lineated valley fill, and lobate debris aprons have low losses consistent with a major component of water ice. Mantling materials in Arcadia and Utopia Planitiae have higher losses, suggesting they are not dominated by ice over large fractions of their thickness. In Gemina Lingula, there are frequent deviations from a simple dependence of loss on depth. Within reflector packets, the brightest reflectors are often different among the frequency subbands, and there are cases of reflectors that occur in only the high- or low-frequency echoes. Many polar radar reflections must arise from multiple thin interfaces, or single deposits of appropriate thickness, that display resonant scattering behaviors. Reflector properties may be linked to climate-controlled polar dust deposition.

Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Real-time Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Science.gov (United States)

Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

2017-04-01

Decline in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has profound socio-economic implications and is a focus of active scientific research. Of particular interest is prediction of SIE on subseasonal time scales, i.e. from early summer into fall, when sea ice coverage in Arctic reaches its minimum. However, subseasonal forecasting of SIE is very challenging due to the high variability of ocean and atmosphere over Arctic in summer, as well as shortness of observational data and inadequacies of the physics-based models to simulate sea-ice dynamics. The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) by Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN, http://www.arcus.org/sipn) is a collaborative effort to facilitate and improve subseasonal prediction of September SIE by physics-based and data-driven statistical models. Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017], have been successfully applied to the nonlinear stochastic modeling, as well as retrospective and real-time forecasting of Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) dataset in key four Arctic regions. In particular, DAH-MSLM predictions outperformed most statistical models and physics-based models in real-time 2016 SIO submissions. The key success factors are associated with DAH ability to disentangle complex regional dynamics of MASIE by data-adaptive harmonic spatio-temporal patterns that reduce the data-driven modeling effort to elemental MSLMs stacked per frequency with fixed and small number of model coefficients to estimate.

Comparison of fabric analysis of snow samples by Computer-Integrated Polarization Microscopy and Automatic Ice Texture Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Leisinger, Sabine; Montagnat, Maurine; Heilbronner, Renée; Schneebeli, Martin

2014-05-01

Accurate knowledge of fabric anisotropy is crucial to understand the mechanical behavior of snow and firn, but is also important for understanding metamorphism. Computer-Integrated Polarization Microscopy (CIP) method used for the fabric analysis was developed by Heilbronner and Pauli in the early 1990ies and uses a slightly modified traditional polarization microscope for the fabric analysis. First developed for quartz, it can be applied to other uniaxial minerals. Up to now this method was mainly used in structural geology. However, it is also well suited for the fabric analysis of snow, firn and ice. The method is based on the analysis of first- order interference colors images by a slightly modified optical polarization microscope, a grayscale camera and a computer. The optical polarization microscope is featured with high quality objectives, a rotating table and two polarizers that can be introduced above and below the thin section, as well as a full wave plate. Additionally, two quarter-wave plates for circular polarization are needed. Otherwise it is also possible to create circular polarization from a set of crossed polarized images through image processing. A narrow band interference filter transmitting a wavelength between 660 and 700 nm is also required. Finally a monochrome digital camera is used to capture the input images. The idea is to record the change of interference colors while the thin section is being rotated once through 180°. The azimuth and inclination of the c-axis are defined by the color change. Recording the color change through a red filter produces a signal with a well-defined amplitude and phase angle. An advantage of this method lies in the simple conversion of an ordinary optical microscope to a fabric analyzer. The Automatic Ice Texture Analyzer (AITA) as the first fully functional instrument to measure c-axis orientation was developed by Wilson and other (2003). Most recent fabric analysis of snow and firn samples was carried

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Lunn, Nicholas J.; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian

2016-01-01

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture–recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993–1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653–984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001–2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98–1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00–1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92–1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Science.gov (United States)

Lunn, Nicholas J; Servanty, Sabrina; Regehr, Eric V; Converse, Sarah J; Richardson, Evan; Stirling, Ian

2016-07-01

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI = 653-984) in 2011. In the last 10 yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010 = 1.02, 95% BCI = 0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI = 1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI = 0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

Constraining the Depth of Polar Ice Deposits and Evolution of Cold Traps on Mercury with Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Deutsch, Ariel N.; Head, James W.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Chabot, Nancy L.

2017-01-01

Earth-based radar observations revealed highly reflective deposits at the poles of Mercury [e.g., 1], which collocate with permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) detected from both imagery and altimetry by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft [e.g., 2]. MESSENGER also measured higher hydrogen concentrations at the north polar region, consistent with models for these deposits to be composed primarily of water ice [3]. Enigmatic to the characterization of ice deposits on Mercury is the thickness of these radar-bright features. A current minimum bound of several meters exists from the radar measurements, which show no drop in the radar cross section between 13- and 70-cm wavelength observations [4, 5]. A maximum thickness of 300 m is based on the lack of any statistically significant difference between the height of craters that host radar-bright deposits and those that do not [6]. More recently, this upper limit on the depth of a typical ice deposit has been lowered to approximately 150 m, in a study that found a mean excess thickness of 50 +/- 35 m of radar-bright deposits for 6 craters [7]. Refining such a constraint permits the derivation of a volumetric estimate of the total polar ice on Mercury, thus providing insight into possible sources of water ice on the planet. Here, we take a different approach to constrain the thickness of water-ice deposits. Permanently shadowed surfaces have been resolved in images acquired with the broadband filter on MESSENGER's wide-angle camera (WAC) using low levels of light scattered by crater walls and other topography [8]. These surfaces are not featureless and often host small craters (less than a few km in diameter). Here we utilize the presence of these small simple craters to constrain the thickness of the radar-bright ice deposits on Mercury. Specifically, we compare estimated depths made from depth-to-diameter ratios and depths from individual Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA

Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

Science.gov (United States)

Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Kalberer, Markus; King, Amy C.F.; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Wolff, Eric W.; Zennaro, Piero

2018-01-01

Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

Prospects for reconstructing paleoenvironmental conditions from organic compounds in polar snow and ice

Science.gov (United States)

Giorio, Chiara; Kehrwald, Natalie; Barbante, Carlo; Kalberer, Markus; King, Amy C. F.; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Wolff, Eric W.; Zennaro, Piero

2018-03-01

Polar ice cores provide information about past climate and environmental changes over periods ranging from a few years up to 800,000 years. The majority of chemical studies have focused on determining inorganic components, such as major ions and trace elements as well as on their isotopic fingerprint. In this paper, we review the different classes of organic compounds that might yield environmental information, discussing existing research and what is needed to improve knowledge. We also discuss the problems of sampling, analysis and interpretation of organic molecules in ice. This review highlights the great potential for organic compounds to be used as proxies for anthropogenic activities, past fire events from different types of biomass, terrestrial biogenic emissions and marine biological activity, along with the possibility of inferring past temperature fluctuations and even large-scale climate variability. In parallel, comprehensive research needs to be done to assess the atmospheric stability of these compounds, their ability to be transported long distances in the atmosphere, and their stability in the archive in order to better interpret their fluxes in ice cores. In addition, specific decontamination procedures, analytical methods with low detection limits (ng/L or lower), fast analysis time and low sample requests need to be developed in order to ensure a good time resolution in the archive.

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n  = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p  Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under climate change.

Polar bears: the fate of an icon.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzgerald, Kevin T

2013-11-01

the bears are so vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Polar bears have few alternatives if their habitat (the sea ice) and their access to their ringed seal prey rapidly disappear. Predictions that polar bears may be able to adjust and sustain themselves on alternative food sources are not based on reality. Spring breakup of the sea ice is happening much earlier as well as fall freezeup is getting later, thereby prolonging the open water period that the bears are shore bound. If trends continue and the ice continues to disappear, the effect on polar bears would be devastating. Veterinarians must stay involved in polar bear studies and in multidisciplinary conservation studies dealing with threatened and endangered species worldwide. On account of their training, veterinarians can offer a unique skill set that can provide access to a number of technologies critical to conservation efforts. The oath veterinarians take on graduation from veterinary school charges them to be sworn to the "conservation of animal resources" and in the education of the public. We are only as good as the oaths we keep. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Volcano-ice interactions on Mars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, C.C.

1979-01-01

Central volcanic eruptions beneath terrestrial glaciers have built steep-sided, flat-topped mountains composed of pillow lava, glassy tuff, capping flows, and cones of basalt. Subglacial fissure eruptions produced ridges of similar compostion. In some places the products from a number of subglacial vents have combined to form widespread deposits. The morphologies of these subglacial volcanoes are distinctive enough to allow their recognition at the resolutions characteristic of Viking orbiter imagery. Analogs to terrestrial subglacial volcanoes have been identified on the northern plains and near the south polar cap of Mars. The polar feature provides probable evidence of volcanic eruptions beneath polar ice. A mixed unit of rock and ice is postulated to have overlain portions of the northern plains, with eruptions into this ground ice having produced mountains and ridges analogous to those in Iceland. Subsequent breakdown of this unit due to ice melting revealed the volcanic features. Estimated heights of these landforms indicate that the ice-rich unit once ranged from approximately 100 to 1200 m thick

Getting around Antarctica: new high-resolution mappings of the grounded and freely-floating boundaries of the Antarctic ice sheet created for the International Polar Year

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Bindschadler

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Two ice-dynamic transitions of the Antarctic ice sheet – the boundary of grounded ice features and the freely-floating boundary – are mapped at 15-m resolution by participants of the International Polar Year project ASAID using customized software combining Landsat-7 imagery and ICESat/GLAS laser altimetry. The grounded ice boundary is 53 610 km long; 74 % abuts to floating ice shelves or outlet glaciers, 19 % is adjacent to open or sea-ice covered ocean, and 7 % of the boundary ice terminates on land. The freely-floating boundary, called here the hydrostatic line, is the most landward position on ice shelves that expresses the full amplitude of oscillating ocean tides. It extends 27 521 km and is discontinuous. Positional (one-sigma accuracies of the grounded ice boundary vary an order of magnitude ranging from ±52 m for the land and open-ocean terminating segments to ±502 m for the outlet glaciers. The hydrostatic line is less well positioned with errors over 2 km. Elevations along each line are selected from 6 candidate digital elevation models based on their agreement with ICESat elevation values and surface shape inferred from the Landsat imagery. Elevations along the hydrostatic line are converted to ice thicknesses by applying a firn-correction factor and a flotation criterion. BEDMAP-compiled data and other airborne data are compared to the ASAID elevations and ice thicknesses to arrive at quantitative (one-sigma uncertainties of surface elevations of ±3.6, ±9.6, ±11.4, ±30 and ±100 m for five ASAID-assigned confidence levels. Over one-half of the surface elevations along the grounded ice boundary and over one-third of the hydrostatic line elevations are ranked in the highest two confidence categories. A comparison between ASAID-calculated ice shelf thicknesses and BEDMAP-compiled data indicate a thin-ice bias of 41.2 ± 71.3 m for the ASAID ice thicknesses. The relationship between the seaward offset of the hydrostatic line

Getting around Antarctica: New High-Resolution Mappings of the Grounded and Freely-Floating Boundaries of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Created for the International Polar Year

Science.gov (United States)

Bindschadler, R.; Choi, H.; Wichlacz, A.; Bingham, R.; Bohlander, J.; Brunt, K.; Corr, H.; Drews, R.; Fricker, H.; Hall, M.;

Sunlight, Sea Ice, and the Ice Albedo Feedback in a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

fraction product and the remotely sensed albedo product in the context of understanding the surface radiation budget. Particular attention is paid to...Stamnes, Chapter 2 The Polar Environment: Sun, Clouds, and Ice, in Ocean Colour Remote Sensing in Polar Seas, p 5-25, in press. Istomina, L, G

Sunlight, Sea Ice, and the Ice Albedo Feedback in a Changing Artic Sea Ice Cover

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-30

the remotely sensed albedo product in the context of understanding the surface radiation budget. Particular attention is paid to the infrequent...Chapter 2 The Polar Environment: Sun, Clouds, and Ice, in Ocean Colour Remote Sensing in Polar Seas, p 5-25, in press. Istomina, L, G. Heygster, M

Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-05

ice area with respect to x and y real trc- tracer at geometric center of cell real trx , try- limited derivative of tracer with respect to x and y...yp1 real xp2, yp2 real xp3, yp3 integer iflux, jflux real aic, aix, aiy real aiflx real trc, trx , try real atflx 95 PIPS 3.0 SDD Subroutine

Constraining the thickness of polar ice deposits on Mercury using the Mercury Laser Altimeter and small craters in permanently shadowed regions

Science.gov (United States)

Deutsch, Ariel N.; Head, James W.; Chabot, Nancy L.; Neumann, Gregory A.

2018-05-01

. For Mercury's polar deposits, we argue that Case I of the small craters predating the emplacement of the ice deposits is more likely, given other geologic evidence that suggests that these ice deposits are relatively young. Using the ice thickness estimates from Case I to calculate the total amount of water ice currently contained in Mercury's polar deposits results in a value of ∼1014-1015 kg. This is equivalent to ∼100-1000 km3 ice in volume. This volume of water ice is consistent with delivery via micrometeorite bombardment, Jupiter-family comets, or potentially a single impactor.

The influence of firn air transport processes and radiocarbon production on gas records from polar firn and ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buizert, Christo

Air bubbles found in polar ice cores preserve a record of past atmospheric composition up to 800 kyr back in time. The composition of the bubbles is not identical to the ancient atmosphere, as it is influenced by processes prior to trapping, within the ice sheet itself, and during sampling...... does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. Six state-of-the-art firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1 Gaussian distribution. We present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we...

Convergence on the Prediction of Ice Particle Mass and Projected Area in Ice Clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, D. L.

2013-12-01

Ice particle mass- and area-dimensional power law (henceforth m-D and A-D) relationships are building-blocks for formulating microphysical processes and optical properties in cloud and climate models, and they are critical for ice cloud remote sensing algorithms, affecting the retrieval accuracy. They can be estimated by (1) directly measuring the sizes, masses and areas of individual ice particles at ground-level and (2) using aircraft probes to simultaneously measure the ice water content (IWC) and ice particle size distribution. A third indirect method is to use observations from method 1 to develop an m-A relationship representing mean conditions in ice clouds. Owing to a tighter correlation (relative to m-D data), this m-A relationship can be used to estimate m from aircraft probe measurements of A. This has the advantage of estimating m at small sizes, down to 10 μm using the 2D-Sterio probe. In this way, 2D-S measurements of maximum dimension D can be related to corresponding estimates of m to develop ice cloud type and temperature dependent m-D expressions. However, these expressions are no longer linear in log-log space, but are slowly varying curves covering most of the size range of natural ice particles. This work compares all three of the above methods and demonstrates close agreement between them. Regarding (1), 4869 ice particles and corresponding melted hemispheres were measured during a field campaign to obtain D and m. Selecting only those unrimed habits that formed between -20°C and -40°C, the mean mass values for selected size intervals are within 35% of the corresponding masses predicted by the Method 3 curve based on a similar temperature range. Moreover, the most recent m-D expression based on Method 2 differs by no more than 50% with the m-D curve from Method 3. Method 3 appears to be the most accurate over the observed ice particle size range (10-4000 μm). An m-D/A-D scheme was developed by which self-consistent m-D and A-D power laws

Ice Caps and Ice Belts: The Effects of Obliquity on Ice−Albedo Feedback

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rose, Brian E. J. [Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany (State University of New York), 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY 12222 (United States); Cronin, Timothy W. [Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Bitz, Cecilia M., E-mail: brose@albany.edu [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, MS 351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1640 (United States)

2017-09-01

Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice−albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity is given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the “deep-water” regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a “Large Ice-Belt Instability” and “Small Ice-Belt Instability” at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps.

Perspectives for DNA studies on polar ice cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anders J.; Willerslev, E.

2002-01-01

Recently amplifiable ancient DNA was obtained from a Greenland ice core. The DNA revealed a diversity of fungi, plants, algae and protists and has thereby expanded the range of detectable organic material in fossil glacier ice. The results suggest that ancient DNA can be obtained from other ice c...

Remotely Operated Vehicles under sea ice - Experiences and results from five years of polar operations

Science.gov (United States)

Katlein, Christian; Arndt, Stefanie; Lange, Benjamin; Belter, Hans Jakob; Schiller, Martin; Nicolaus, Marcel

2016-04-01

The availability of advanced robotic technologies to the Earth Science community has largely increased in the last decade. Remotely operated vehicles (ROV) enable spatially extensive scientific investigations underneath the sea ice of the polar oceans, covering a larger range and longer diving times than divers with significantly lower risks. Here we present our experiences and scientific results acquired from ROV operations during the last five years in the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice region. Working under the sea ice means to have all obstacles and investigated objects above the vehicle, and thus changes several paradigms of ROV operations as compared to blue water applications. Observations of downwelling spectral irradiance and radiance allow a characterization of the optical properties of sea ice and the spatial variability of the energy partitioning across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary. Our results show that the decreasing thickness and age of the sea ice have led to a significant increase in light transmission during summer over the last three decades. Spatially extensive measurements from ROV surveys generally provide more information on the light field variability than single spot measurements. The large number of sampled ice conditions during five cruises with the German research icebreaker RV Polarstern allows for the investigations of the seasonal evolution of light transmittance. Both, measurements of hyperspectral light transmittance through sea ice, as well as classification of upward-looking camera images were used to investigate the spatial distribution of ice-algal biomass. Buoyant ice-algal aggregates were found to be positioned in the stretches of level ice, rather than pressure ridges due to a physical interaction of aggregate-buoyancy and under-ice currents. Synchronous measurements of sea ice thickness by upward looking sonar provides crucial additional information to put light-transmittance and biological observations into context

Polar Stereographic Valid Ice Masks Derived from National Ice Center Monthly Sea Ice Climatologies, Version 1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — These valid ice masks provide a way to remove spurious ice caused by residual weather effects and land spillover in passive microwave data. They are derived from the...

Middle Range Sea Ice Prediction System of Voyage Environmental Information System in Arctic Sea Route

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Due to global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is melting dramatically in summer, which is providing a new opportunity to exploit the Northern Sea Route (NSR) connecting Asia and Europe ship route. Recent increases in logistics transportation through NSR and resource development reveal the possible threats of marine pollution and marine transportation accidents without real-time navigation system. To develop a safe Voyage Environmental Information System (VEIS) for vessels operating, the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) which is supported by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea has initiated the development of short-term and middle range prediction system for the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) in NSR since 2014. The sea ice prediction system of VEIS consists of AMSR2 satellite composite images (a day), short-term (a week) prediction system, and middle range (a month) prediction system using a statistical method with re-analysis data (TOPAZ) and short-term predicted model data. In this study, the middle range prediction system for the SIC and SIT in NSR is calibrated with another middle range predicted atmospheric and oceanic data (NOAA CFSv2). The system predicts one month SIC and SIT on a daily basis, as validated with dynamic composite SIC data extracted from AMSR2 L2 satellite images.

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

Science.gov (United States)

Uotila, Petteri

2017-04-01

Ocean reanalysis (ORA) combines observations either statistically or with a hydrodynamical model, to reconstruct historical changes in the ocean. Global and regional ORA products are increasingly used in polar research, but their quality remains to be systematically assessed. To address this, the Polar ORA Intercomparison Project (PORA-IP) has been established following on from the ORA-IP project (Balmaseda et al. 2015, with other papers in a special issue of Climate Dynamics). The PORA-IP is constituted under the COST EOS initiative with plans to review reanalyses products in both the Arctic and Antarctic, and is endorsed by YOPP - the Year of Polar Prediction project. Currently, the PORA-IP team consists of 21 researchers from 15 institutes and universities. The ORA-IP products with polar physics, such as sea ice, have been updated where necessary and collected in a public database. In addition to model output, available observational polar climatologies are collected and used in the assessments. Due to the extensive variety of products, this database should become a valuable resource outside the PORA-IP community. For a comprehensive evaluation of the ten ORA products (CGLORSv5, ECDA3.1, GECCO2, Glorys2v4, GloSea5_GO5, MOVEG2i, ORAP5, SODA3.3.1, TOPAZ4 and UR025.4) in the Arctic and Southern Oceans several specific diagnostics are assessed. The PORA-IP diagnostics target the following topics: hydrography; heat, salinity and freshwater content; ocean transports and surface currents; mixed layer depth; sea-ice concentration and thickness; and snow thickness over sea ice. Based on these diagnostics, ORA product biases against observed data and their mutual spread are quantified, and possible reasons for discrepancies discussed. So far, we have identified product outliers and evaluated the multi-model mean. We have identified the importance of the atmospheric forcing, air-ocean coupling protocol and sea-ice data assimilation for the product performance. Moreover, we

Assessment of RISAT-1 and Radarsat-2 for Sea Ice Observations from a Hybrid-Polarity Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martine M. Espeseth

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Utilizing several Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR missions will provide a data set with higher temporal resolution. It is of great importance to understand the difference between various available sensors and polarization modes and to consider how to homogenize the data sets for a following combined analysis. In this study, a uniform and consistent analysis across different SAR missions is carried out. Three pairs of overlapping hybrid- and full-polarimetric C-band SAR scenes from the Radar Imaging Satellite-1 (RISAT-1 and Radarsat-2 satellites are used. The overlapping Radarsat-2 and RISAT-1 scenes are taken close in time, with a relatively similar incidence angle covering sea ice in the Fram Strait and Northeast Greenland in September 2015. The main objective of this study is to identify the similarities and dissimilarities between a simulated and a real hybrid-polarity (HP SAR system. The similarities and dissimilarities between the two sensors are evaluated using 13 HP features. The results indicate a similar separability between the sea ice types identified within the real HP system in RISAT-1 and the simulated HP system from Radarsat-2. The HP features that are sensitive to surface scattering and depolarization due to volume scattering showed great potential for separating various sea ice types. A subset of features (the second parameter in the Stokes vector, the ratio between the HP intensity coefficients, and the α s angle were affected by the non-circularity property of the transmitted wave in the simulated HP system across all the scene pairs. Overall, the best features, showing high separability between various sea ice types and which are invariant to the non-circularity property of the transmitted wave, are the intensity coefficients from the right-hand circular transmit and the linear horizontal receive channel and the right-hand circular on both the transmit and the receive channel, and the first parameter in the Stokes vector.

Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. Amstrup; Bruce G. Marcot; David C. Douglas

2007-01-01

To inform the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision whether or not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), we forecast the status of the world's polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations 45, 75 and 100 years into the future. We applied the best available information about predicted changes in sea ice in the...

On the retrieval of ice cloud particle shapes from POLDER measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Wenbo; Loeb, Norman G.; Yang Ping

2006-01-01

Shapes of ice crystals can significantly affect the radiative transfer in ice clouds. The angular distribution of the polarized reflectance over ice clouds strongly depends on ice crystal shapes. Although the angular-distribution features of the total or polarized reflectance over ice clouds imply a possibility of retrieving ice cloud particle shapes by use of remote sensing data, the accuracy of the retrieval must be evaluated. In this study, a technique that applies single ice crystal habit and multidirectional polarized radiance to retrieve ice cloud particle shapes is assessed. Our sensitivity studies show that the retrieved particle shapes from this algorithm can be considered good approximations to those in actual clouds in calculation of the phase matrix elements. However, this algorithm can only work well under the following conditions: (1) the retrievable must be overcast and thick ice cloud pixels, (2) the particles in the cloud must be randomly oriented, (3) the particle shapes and size distributions used in the lookup tables must be representative, and (4) the multi-angle polarized measurements must be accurate and sufficient to identify ice cloud pixels of randomly oriented particles. In practice, these conditions will exclude most of the measured cloud pixels. Additionally, because the polarized measurements are only sensitive to the upper cloud part not deeper than an optical thickness of 4, the retrieved particle shapes with the polarized radiance may only approximate those in the upper parts of the clouds. In other words, for thicker clouds with vertical inhomogeneity in particle shapes, these retrieved particle shapes cannot represent those of whole clouds. More robust algorithm is needed in accurate retrieval of ice cloud particle shapes

A Predictive Model for Yeast Cell Polarization in Pheromone Gradients.

Science.gov (United States)

Muller, Nicolas; Piel, Matthieu; Calvez, Vincent; Voituriez, Raphaël; Gonçalves-Sá, Joana; Guo, Chin-Lin; Jiang, Xingyu; Murray, Andrew; Meunier, Nicolas

2016-04-01

Budding yeast cells exist in two mating types, a and α, which use peptide pheromones to communicate with each other during mating. Mating depends on the ability of cells to polarize up pheromone gradients, but cells also respond to spatially uniform fields of pheromone by polarizing along a single axis. We used quantitative measurements of the response of a cells to α-factor to produce a predictive model of yeast polarization towards a pheromone gradient. We found that cells make a sharp transition between budding cycles and mating induced polarization and that they detect pheromone gradients accurately only over a narrow range of pheromone concentrations corresponding to this transition. We fit all the parameters of the mathematical model by using quantitative data on spontaneous polarization in uniform pheromone concentration. Once these parameters have been computed, and without any further fit, our model quantitatively predicts the yeast cell response to pheromone gradient providing an important step toward understanding how cells communicate with each other.

Ice crystallization in ultrafine water-salt aerosols: nucleation, ice-solution equilibrium, and internal structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudait, Arpa; Molinero, Valeria

2014-06-04

solution. We predict that micrometer-sized particles and nanoparticles have the same equilibrium internal structure. The variation of liquid-vapor surface tension with solute concentration is a key factor in determining whether a solution-embedded ice core or vapor-exposed ice cap is the equilibrium structure of the aerosols. In agreement with experiments, we predict that the structure of mixed-phase HNO3-water particles, representative of polar stratospheric clouds, consists of an ice core surrounded by freeze-concentrated solution. The results of this work are important to determine the phase state and internal structure of sea spray ultrafine aerosols and other mixed-phase particles under atmospherically relevant conditions.

Autonomous Sea-Ice Thickness Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

the conductivity of an infinitely thick slab of sea ice. Ice thickness, Hice, is then obtained by subtracting the height of the ...Thickness Survey of Sea Ice Runway” ERDC/CRREL SR-16-4 ii Abstract We conducted an autonomous survey of sea -ice thickness using the Polar rover Yeti...efficiency relative to manual surveys routinely con- ducted to assess the safety of roads and runways constructed on the sea ice. Yeti executed the

ACTIVITY OF LICHENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW AND ICE (18th Symposium on Polar Biology)

OpenAIRE

Ludger, KAPPEN; Burkhard, SCHROETER

1997-01-01

A major aim of our investigations is to explain the adaptation of vegetation to the peculiar environmental conditions in polar regions. Our concept describes the main limiting and favorable factors influencing photosynthetic production of cryptogams, mainly lichens. Snow and ice-usually stress factors to the activity of plants-can be effectively used by lichens because of their poikilohydrous nature. Light, the basic driving force for photosynthetic activity, may be deleterious under certain ...

Predicting Maps of Green Growth in Košice

Science.gov (United States)

Poorova, Zuzana; Vranayova, Zuzana

2017-10-01

The paper deals with the changing of the traditional roofs in the city of Košice into green roofs. Possible areas of city housing estates, after taking into account the conditions of each of them (types of buildings, statics of buildings), are listed in the paper. The research is picturing the prediction maps of Košice city from 2017 to 2042 in 5-years interval. The paper is a segment of a dissertation work focusing on changing traditional roofs into green roofs with the aim to retain water, calculate the amount of retained water and show possibilities how to use this water.

Ultra-Wideband Radiometry Remote Sensing of Polar Ice Sheet Temperature Profile, Sea Ice and Terrestrial Snow Thickness: Forward Modeling and Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tsang, L.; Tan, S.; Sanamzadeh, M.; Johnson, J. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Durand, M. T.

2017-12-01

The recent development of an ultra-wideband software defined radiometer (UWBRAD) operating over the unprotected spectrum of 0.5 2.0 GHz using radio-frequency interference suppression techniques offers new methodologies for remote sensing of the polar ice sheets, sea ice, and terrestrial snow. The instrument was initially designed for remote sensing of the intragalcial temperature profile of the ice sheet, where a frequency dependent penetration depth yields a frequency dependent brightness temperature (Tb) spectrum that can be linked back to the temperature profile of the ice sheet. The instrument was tested during a short flight over Northwest Greenland in September, 2016. Measurements were successfully made over the different snow facies characteristic of Greenland including the ablation, wet snow and percolation facies, and ended just west of Camp Century during the approach to the dry snow zone. Wide-band emission spectra collected during the flight have been processed and analyzed. Results show that the spectra are highly sensitive to the facies type with scattering from ice lenses being the dominant reason for low Tbs in the percolation zone. Inversion of Tb to physical temperature at depth was conducted on the measurements near Camp Century, achieving a -1.7K ten-meter error compared to borehole measurements. However, there is a relatively large uncertainty in the lower part possibly due to the large scattering near the surface. Wideband radiometry may also be applicable to sea ice and terrestrial snow thickness retrieval. Modeling studies suggest that the UWBRAD spectra reduce ambiguities inherent in other sea ice thickness retrievals by utilizing coherent wave interferences that appear in the Tb spectrum. When applied to a lossless medium such as terrestrial snow, this coherent oscillation turns out to be the single key signature that can be used to link back to snow thickness. In this paper, we report our forward modeling findings in support of instrument

Azimuthal Structure of the Sand Erg that Encircles the North Polar Water-Ice Cap

Science.gov (United States)

Teodoro, L. A.; Elphic, R. C.; Eke, V. R.; Feldman, W. C.; Maurice, S.; Pathare, A.

2011-12-01

The sand erg that completely encircles the perennial water-ice cap that covers the Martian north geographic pole displays considerable azimuthal structure as seen in visible and near-IR images. Much of this structure is associated with the terminations of the many steep troughs that cut spiral the approximately 3 km thick polar ice cap. Other contributions come from the katabatic winds that spill over steep-sided edges of the cap, such as what bounds the largest set of dunes that comprise Olympia Undae. During the spring and summer months when these winds initiate from the higher altitudes that contain sublimating CO2 ice, which is very cold and dry, heat adiabatically when they compress as they lose altitude. These winds should then remove H2O moisture from the uppermost layer of the sand dunes that are directly in their path. Two likely locations where this desiccation may occur preferentially is at the termination of Chasma Boreale and the ice cap at Olympia Undae. We will search for this effect by sharpening the spatial structure of the epithermal neutron counting rates measured at northern high latitudes using the Mars Odyssey Neutron Spectrometer (MONS). The epithermal range of neutron energies is nearly uniquely sensitive to the hydrogen content of surface soils, which should likely be in the form of H2O/OH molecules/radicals. We therefore convert epithermal counting rates in terms of Water-Equivalent-Hydrogen, WEH. However, MONS counting-rate data have a FWHM of ~550 km., which is sufficiently broad to prevent a close association of WEH variability with images of geological features. In this study, we reduce spurious features in the instrument smeared neutron counting rates through deconvolution. We choose the PIXON numerical deconvolution technique for this purpose. This technique uses a statistical approach (Pina 2001, Eke 2001), which is capable of removing spurious features in the data in the presence of noise. We have previously carried out a detailed

Impact of bacterial ice nucleating particles on weather predicted by a numerical weather prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Sahyoun, Maher; Korsholm, Ulrik S.; Sørensen, Jens H.; Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Finster, Kai; Gosewinkel, Ulrich; Nielsen, Niels W.

2017-12-01

Bacterial ice-nucleating particles (INP) have the ability to facilitate ice nucleation from super-cooled cloud droplets at temperatures just below the melting point. Bacterial INP have been detected in cloud water, precipitation, and dry air, hence they may have an impact on weather and climate. In modeling studies, the potential impact of bacteria on ice nucleation and precipitation formation on global scale is still uncertain due to their small concentration compared to other types of INP, i.e. dust. Those earlier studies did not account for the yet undetected high concentration of nanoscale fragments of bacterial INP, which may be found free or attached to soil dust in the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud ice, precipitation and global solar radiation in different weather scenarios to changes in the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP, regardless of their size. For this purpose, a module that calculates the probability of ice nucleation as a function of ice nucleation rate and bacterial INP fraction was developed and implemented in a numerical weather prediction model. The threshold value for the fraction of cloud droplets containing bacterial INP needed to produce a 1% increase in cloud ice was determined at 10-5 to 10-4. We also found that increasing this fraction causes a perturbation in the forecast, leading to significant differences in cloud ice and smaller differences in convective and total precipitation and in net solar radiation reaching the surface. These effects were most pronounced in local convective events. Our results show that bacterial INP can be considered as a trigger factor for precipitation, but not an enhancement factor.

IceBridge: Bringing a Field Campaign Home

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, J.; Beck, J.; Bartholow, S.

2015-12-01

IceBridge, a six-year NASA mission, is the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. It will yield an unprecedented three-dimensional view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves and sea ice. These flights will provide a yearly, multi-instrument look at the behavior of the rapidly changing features of the Greenland and Antarctic ice. Data collected during IceBridge will help scientists bridge the gap in polar observations between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- in orbit since 2003 -- and ICESat-2, planned for 2017. ICESat stopped collecting science data in 2009, making IceBridge critical for ensuring a continuous series of observations. IceBridge will use airborne instruments to map Arctic and Antarctic areas once a year at a minimum, with new campaigns being developed during the Arctic melt season. IceBridge flights are conducted in the spring and summer for the Arctic and in the fall over Antarctica. Other smaller airborne surveys around the world are also part of the IceBridge campaign. IceBridge actively engages the public and educators through a variety of outlets ranging from communications strategies through social media outlets, to larger organized efforts such as PolarTREC. In field activities include blog posts, photo updates, in flight chat sessions, and more intensive live events to include google hangouts, where field team members can interact with the public during a scheduled broadcast. The IceBridge team provides scientists and other team members with the training and support to become communicators in their own right. There is an exciting new initiative where IceBridge will be collaborating with Undergraduate and Graduate students to integrate the next generation of scientists and communicators into the Science Teams. This will be explored through partnerships with institutions that are interested in mentoring through project based initiatives.

Muon polarization in the MEG experiment: predictions and measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldini, A.M.; Dussoni, S.; Galli, L.; Grassi, M.; Sergiampietri, F.; Signorelli, G.; Bao, Y.; Hildebrandt, M.; Kettle, P.R.; Mtchedlishvili, A.; Papa, A.; Ritt, S.; Baracchini, E.; Bemporad, C.; Cei, F.; D'Onofrio, A.; Nicolo, D.; Tenchini, F.; Berg, F.; Hodge, Z.; Rutar, G.; Biasotti, M.; Gatti, F.; Pizzigoni, G.; Boca, G.; De Bari, A.; Cattaneo, P.W.; Rossella, M.; Cavoto, G.; Piredda, G.; Renga, F.; Voena, C.; Chiarello, G.; Panareo, M.; Pepino, A.; Chiri, C.; Grancagnolo, F.; Tassielli, G.F.; De Gerone, M.; Fujii, Y.; Iwamoto, T.; Kaneko, D.; Mori, Toshinori; Nakaura, S.; Nishimura, M.; Ogawa, S.; Ootani, W.; Sawada, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Yoshida, K.; Graziosi, A.; Ripiccini, E.; Grigoriev, D.N.; Haruyama, T.; Mihara, S.; Nishiguchi, H.; Yamamoto, A.; Ieki, K.; Ignatov, F.; Khazin, B.I.; Popov, A.; Yudin, Yu.V.; Kang, T.I.; Lim, G.M.A.; Molzon, W.; You, Z.; Khomutov, N.; Korenchenko, A.; Kravchuk, N.; Venturini, M.

2016-01-01

The MEG experiment makes use of one of the world's most intense low energy muon beams, in order to search for the lepton flavour violating process μ + → e + γ. We determined the residual beam polarization at the thin stopping target, by measuring the asymmetry of the angular distribution of Michel decay positrons as a function of energy. The initial muon beam polarization at the production is predicted to be P μ = -1 by the Standard Model (SM) with massless neutrinos. We estimated our residual muon polarization to be P μ =.0.86 ± 0.02 (stat) -0.06 +0.05 (syst) at the stopping target, which is consistent with the SM predictions when the depolarizing effects occurring during the muon production, propagation and moderation in the target are taken into account. The knowledge of beam polarization is of fundamental importance in order to model the background of our μ + → e + γ search induced by the muon radiative decay: μ + → e + anti ν μ ν e γ. (orig.)

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

2018-04-30

Resources: N/A TOTAL: $18,687 2 TECHNICAL STATUS REPORT Abstract The program goal is analysis of sea ice dynamical behavior using Koopman Mode Decompo...Title: Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Evolution using Koopman Mode Decomposition Techniques Subject: Monthly Progress Report Period of...Attn: Code 5596 4555 Overlook Avenue, SW Washington, D.C. 20375-5320 E-mail: reports@library.nrl.navy.mil Defense Technical Information Center

Polarized Raman spectroscopic study of relaxed high density amorphous ices under pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Yoshiharu; Tominaga, Yasunori

2010-10-28

We have made high density amorphous ice (HDA) by the pressure-induced amorphization of hexagonal ice at 77 K and measured the volume change on isobaric heating in a pressure range between 0.1 and 1.5 GPa. The volume of HDA on heating below ∼0.35 GPa increases, while the volume of HDA on heating above ∼0.35 GPa decreases. The polarized OH-stretching Raman spectra of the relaxed HDAs are compared with that of the unannealed HDA. The relaxed HDAs are prepared at 0.2 GPa at 130 K and 1.5 GPa at 160 K. It is found that the relatively strong totally symmetric OH-stretching vibration mode around 3100 cm(-1) exists in the depolarized reduced Raman spectrum χ(VH)(") of the unannealed HDA and that its intensity rapidly decreases by relaxation. The χ(VH)(") profiles of the relaxed HDA are similar to those of liquid water. These results indicate that the HDA reaches a nearly equilibrium state by annealing and the intrinsic state of HDA relates to a liquid state. The pressure-volume curve of the relaxed HDA at 140 K seems to be smooth in the pressure range below 1.5 GPa.

Snow nitrate photolysis in polar regions and the mid-latitudes: Impact on boundary layer chemistry and implications for ice core records

Science.gov (United States)

Zatko, Maria C.

The formation and recycling of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO 2) associated with snow nitrate photolysis has important implications for air quality and the preservation of nitrate in ice core records. This dissertation examines snow nitrate photolysis in polar and mid-latitude regions using field and laboratory based observations combined with snow chemistry column models and a global chemical transport model to explore the impacts of snow nitrate photolysis on boundary layer chemistry and the preservation of nitrate in polar ice cores. Chapter 1 describes how a global chemical transport model is used to calculate the photolysis-driven flux and redistribution of nitrogen across Antarctica, and Chapter 2 presents similar work for Greenland. Snow-sourced NOx is most dependent on the quantum yield for nitrate photolysis as well as the concentration of photolabile nitrate and light-absorbing impurities (e.g., black carbon, dust, organics) in snow. Model-calculated fluxes of snow-sourced NOx are similar in magnitude in Antarctica (0.5--7.8x108 molec cm-2 s -1) and Greenland (0.1--6.4x108 molec cm-2 s-1) because both nitrate and light-absorbing impurity concentrations in snow are higher (by factors of 2 and 10, respectively) in Greenland. Snow nitrate photolysis influences boundary layer chemistry and ice-core nitrate preservation less in Greenland compared to Antarctica largely due to Greenland's proximity to NOx-source regions. Chapter 3 describes how a snow chemistry column model combined with chemistry and optical measurements from the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) 2014 is used to calculate snow-sourced NOx in eastern Utah. Daily-averaged fluxes of snow-sourced NOx (2.9x10 7--1.3x108 molec cm-2 s-1) are similar in magnitude to polar snow-sourced NO x fluxes, but are only minor components of the Uintah Basin boundary layer NOx budget and can be neglected when developing ozone reduction strategies for the region. Chapter 4 presents chemical and optical

Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boulton, G.S.; Payne, A.

1992-12-01

Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe

Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Capron, E.; Landais, A.; Chappellaz, J.

2010-01-01

Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterized...... that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period....

Antioxidant responses in the polar marine sea-ice amphipod Gammarus wilkitzkii to natural and experimentally increased UV levels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krapp, Rupert H.; Bassinet, Thievery; Berge, Jorgen; Pampanin, Daniela M.; Camus, Lionel

2009-01-01

Polar marine surface waters are characterized by high levels of dissolved oxygen, seasonally intense UV irradiance and high levels of dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice habitat is regarded as a strongly pro-oxidant environment, even though its significant ice cover protects the ice-associated (=sympagic) fauna from direct irradiation to a large extent. In order to investigate the level of resistance to oxyradical stress, we sampled the sympagic amphipod species Gammarus wilkitzkii during both winter and summer conditions, as well as exposed specimens to simulated levels of near-natural and elevated levels of UV irradiation. Results showed that this amphipod species possessed a much stronger antioxidant capacity during summer than during winter. Also, the experimental UV exposure showed a depletion in antioxidant defences, indicating a negative effect of UV exposure on the total oxyradical scavenging capacity. Another sympagic organism, Onisimus nanseni, was sampled during summer conditions. When compared to G. wilkitzkii, the species showed even higher antioxidant scavenging capacity.

Atmospheric forcing of sea ice leads in the Beaufort Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, B. J.; Hutchings, J.; Mahoney, A. R.; Shapiro, L. H.

2016-12-01

Leads in sea ice play an important role in the polar marine environment where they allow heat and moisture transfer between the oceans and atmosphere and act as travel pathways for both marine mammals and ships. Examining AVHRR thermal imagery of the Beaufort Sea, collected between 1994 and 2010, sea ice leads appear in repeating patterns and locations (Eicken et al 2005). The leads, resolved by AVHRR, are at least 250m wide (Mahoney et al 2012), thus the patterns described are for lead systems that extend up to hundreds of kilometers across the Beaufort Sea. We describe how these patterns are associated with the location of weather systems relative to the coastline. Mean sea level pressure and 10m wind fields from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to identify if particular lead patterns can be uniquely forecast based on the location of weather systems. Ice drift data from the NSIDC's Polar Pathfinder Daily 25km EASE-Grid Sea Ice Motion Vectors indicates the role shear along leads has on the motion of ice in the Beaufort Gyre. Lead formation is driven by 4 main factors: (i) coastal features such as promontories and islands influence the origin of leads by concentrating stresses within the ice pack; (ii) direction of the wind forcing on the ice pack determines the type of fracture, (iii) the location of the anticyclone (or cyclone) center determines the length of the fracture for certain patterns; and (iv) duration of weather conditions affects the width of the ice fracture zones. Movement of the ice pack on the leeward side of leads originating at promontories and islands increases, creating shear zones that control ice transport along the Alaska coast in winter. . Understanding how atmospheric conditions influence the large-scale motion of the ice pack is needed to design models that predict variability of the gyre and export of multi-year ice to lower latitudes.

Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hutchings, Jennifer [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Joseph, Renu [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)

2013-09-14

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project will facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.

Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction: the March 2010 Newfoundland event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hosek

2011-02-01

Full Text Available The northeast coast of North America is frequently hit by severe ice storms. These freezing rain events can produce large ice accretions that damage structures, frequently power transmission and distribution infrastructure. For this reason, it is highly desirable to model and forecast such icing events, so that the consequent damages can be prevented or mitigated. The case study presented in this paper focuses on the March 2010 ice storm event that took place in eastern Newfoundland. We apply a combination of a numerical weather prediction model and an ice accretion algorithm to simulate a forecast of this event.

The main goals of this study are to compare the simulated meteorological variables to observations, and to assess the ability of the model to accurately predict the ice accretion load for different forecast horizons. The duration and timing of the freezing rain event that occurred between the night of 4 March and the morning of 6 March was simulated well in all model runs. The total precipitation amounts in the model, however, differed by up to a factor of two from the observations. The accuracy of the model air temperature strongly depended on the forecast horizon, but it was acceptable for all simulation runs. The simulated accretion loads were also compared to the design values for power delivery structures in the region. The results indicated that the simulated values exceeded design criteria in the areas of reported damage and power outages.

Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-06-19

Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

Sulfur mass loading of the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions: Calibration of the ice core record on basis of sulfate aerosol deposition in polar regions from the 1982 El Chichon eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Sigurdsson, Haraldur; Laj, Paolo

1990-01-01

Major volcanic eruptions disperse large quantities of sulfur compound throughout the Earth's atmosphere. The sulfuric acid aerosols resulting from such eruptions are scavenged by snow within the polar regions and appear in polar ice cores as elevated acidity layers. Glacio-chemical studies of ice cores can, thus, provide a record of past volcanism, as well as the means for understanding the fate of volcanic sulfur in the atmosphere. The primary objectives of this project are to study the chemistry and physical properties of volcanic fallout in a Greenland Ice Core in order to evaluate the impact of the volcanic gases on the atmospheric chemistry and the total atmospheric mass of volcanic aerosols emitted by major volcanic eruptions. We propose to compare the ice core record to other atmospheric records performed during the last 10 years to investigate transport and deposition of volcanic materials.

Muon polarization in the MEG experiment: predictions and measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baldini, A.M.; Dussoni, S.; Galli, L.; Grassi, M.; Sergiampietri, F.; Signorelli, G. [Pisa Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Bao, Y.; Hildebrandt, M.; Kettle, P.R.; Mtchedlishvili, A.; Papa, A.; Ritt, S. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); Baracchini, E. [University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); INFN, Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Rome (Italy); Bemporad, C.; Cei, F.; D' Onofrio, A.; Nicolo, D.; Tenchini, F. [INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Pisa Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Pisa (Italy); Berg, F.; Hodge, Z.; Rutar, G. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Zurich (Switzerland); Biasotti, M.; Gatti, F.; Pizzigoni, G. [INFN Sezione di Genova, Genova (Italy); Genova Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Genova (Italy); Boca, G.; De Bari, A. [INFN Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Pavia Univ., Dipartimento di Fisica, Pavia (Italy); Cattaneo, P.W.; Rossella, M. [Pavia Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pavia, Pavia (Italy); Cavoto, G.; Piredda, G.; Renga, F.; Voena, C. [Univ. ' ' Sapienza' ' , Rome (Italy); INFN Sezione di Roma, Rome (Italy); Chiarello, G.; Panareo, M.; Pepino, A. [INFN Sezione di Lecce, Lecce (Italy); Univ. del Salento, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Lecce (Italy); Chiri, C.; Grancagnolo, F.; Tassielli, G.F. [Univ. del Salento (Italy); INFN Sezione di Lecce, Lecce (Italy); De Gerone, M. [Genova Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Genova, Genova (Italy); Fujii, Y.; Iwamoto, T.; Kaneko, D.; Mori, Toshinori; Nakaura, S.; Nishimura, M.; Ogawa, S.; Ootani, W.; Sawada, R.; Uchiyama, Y.; Yoshida, K. [University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); Graziosi, A.; Ripiccini, E. [INFN Sezione di Roma, Rome (Italy); Univ. ' ' Sapienza' ' , Dipartimento di Fisica, Rome (Italy); Grigoriev, D.N. [Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Haruyama, T.; Mihara, S.; Nishiguchi, H.; Yamamoto, A. [KEK, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ieki, K. [Paul Scherrer Institut PSI, Villigen (Switzerland); University of Tokyo, ICEPP, Tokyo (Japan); Ignatov, F.; Khazin, B.I.; Popov, A.; Yudin, Yu.V. [Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Kang, T.I.; Lim, G.M.A.; Molzon, W.; You, Z. [University of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Khomutov, N.; Korenchenko, A.; Kravchuk, N. [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Venturini, M. [Pisa Univ. (Italy); INFN Sezione di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa (Italy); Collaboration: The MEG Collaboration

2016-04-15

The MEG experiment makes use of one of the world's most intense low energy muon beams, in order to search for the lepton flavour violating process μ{sup +} → e{sup +}γ. We determined the residual beam polarization at the thin stopping target, by measuring the asymmetry of the angular distribution of Michel decay positrons as a function of energy. The initial muon beam polarization at the production is predicted to be P{sub μ} = -1 by the Standard Model (SM) with massless neutrinos. We estimated our residual muon polarization to be P{sub μ} =.0.86 ± 0.02 (stat){sub -0.06}{sup +0.05} (syst) at the stopping target, which is consistent with the SM predictions when the depolarizing effects occurring during the muon production, propagation and moderation in the target are taken into account. The knowledge of beam polarization is of fundamental importance in order to model the background of our μ{sup +} → e{sup +}γ search induced by the muon radiative decay: μ{sup +} → e{sup +} anti ν{sub μ}ν{sub e}γ. (orig.)

The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaomin Xu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR. According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO, which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability.

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

Science.gov (United States)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

Prediction of dry ice mass for firefighting robot actuation

Science.gov (United States)

Ajala, M. T.; Khan, Md R.; Shafie, A. A.; Salami, MJE; Mohamad Nor, M. I.

2017-11-01

The limitation in the performance of electric actuated firefighting robots in high-temperature fire environment has led to research on the alternative propulsion system for the mobility of firefighting robots in such environment. Capitalizing on the limitations of these electric actuators we suggested a gas-actuated propulsion system in our earlier study. The propulsion system is made up of a pneumatic motor as the actuator (for the robot) and carbon dioxide gas (self-generated from dry ice) as the power source. To satisfy the consumption requirement (9cfm) of the motor for efficient actuation of the robot in the fire environment, the volume of carbon dioxide gas, as well as the corresponding mass of the dry ice that will produce the required volume for powering and actuation of the robot, must be determined. This article, therefore, presents the computational analysis to predict the volumetric requirement and the dry ice mass sufficient to power a carbon dioxide gas propelled autonomous firefighting robot in a high-temperature environment. The governing equation of the sublimation of dry ice to carbon dioxide is established. An operating time of 2105.53s and operating pressure ranges from 137.9kPa to 482.65kPa were achieved following the consumption rate of the motor. Thus, 8.85m3 is computed as the volume requirement of the CAFFR while the corresponding dry ice mass for the CAFFR actuation ranges from 21.67kg to 75.83kg depending on the operating pressure.

PolarPortal.org Communicates Real-Time Developments in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Langen, P. L.; Andersen, S. B.; Andersen, K. K.; Andersen, M. L.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; van As, D.; Barletta, V. R.; Box, J. E.; Citterio, M.; Colgan, W. T.; Dybkjær, G.; Forsberg, R.; Høyer, J. L.; Jensen, M. B.; Kliem, N.; Mottram, R.; Nielsen, K. P.; Olesen, M.; Quaglia, F. C.; Rasmussen, T. A.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Stendel, M.; Sandberg Sørensen, L.; Tonboe, R. T.

2014-12-01

PolarPortal.org was launched in June 2013 by a consortium of Danish institutions, including the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Space). Polar Portal is a single web portal presenting a wide range of near real-time information on both the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea-ice in a format geared for non-specialists. Polar Portal aims to meet widespread public interest in a diverse range of climate-cryosphere processes in the Arctic: What is the present Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise? How quickly are outlet glaciers retreating or advancing right now? How extensive is Arctic sea-ice or how warm is the Arctic Ocean at this moment? Although public interest in such topics is widely acknowledged, an important primary task for the scientists behind Polar Portal was collaborating with media specialists to establish the knowledge range of the general public on these topics, in order for Polar Portal to appropriately present useful climate-cryosphere information. Consequently, Polar Portal is designed in a highly visual exploratory format, where individual data products are accompanied by plain written summaries, with hyperlinks to relevant journal papers for more scrutinizing users. Numerous satellite and in situ observations, together with model output, are channeled daily into the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea-ice divisions of Polar Portal.

Complex bounds and microstructural recovery from measurements of sea ice permittivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gully, A.; Backstrom, L.G.E.; Eicken, H.; Golden, K.M.

2007-01-01

Sea ice is a porous composite of pure ice with brine, air, and salt inclusions. The polar sea ice packs play a key role in the earth's ocean-climate system, and they host robust algal and bacterial communities that support the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. Monitoring the sea ice packs on global or regional scales is an increasingly important problem, typically involving the interaction of an electromagnetic wave with sea ice. In the quasistatic regime where the wavelength is much longer than the composite microstructural scale, the electromagnetic behavior is characterized by the effective complex permittivity tensor ε*. In assessing the impact of climate change on the polar sea ice covers, current satellites and algorithms can predict ice extent, but the thickness distribution remains an elusive, yet most important feature. In recent years, electromagnetic induction devices using low frequency waves have been deployed on ships, helicopters and planes to obtain thickness data. Here we compare two sets of theoretical bounds to extensive outdoor tank and in situ field data on ε* at 50MHz taken in the Arctic and Antarctic. The sea ice is assumed to be a two phase composite of ice and brine with known constituent permittivities. The first set of bounds assumes only knowledge of the brine volume fraction or porosity, and the second set further assumes statistical isotropy of the microstructure. We obtain excellent agreement between theory and experiment, and are able to observe the apparent violation of the isotropic bounds as the vertically oriented microstructure becomes increasingly connected for higher porosities. Moreover, these bounds are inverted to obtain estimates of the porosity from the measurements of ε*. We find that the temporal variations of the reconstructed porosity, which is directly related to temperature, closely follow the actual behavior

Workshop on wave-ice interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Wadhams, Peter; Squire, Vernon; Rottier, Philip; Liu, Antony; Dugan, John; Czipott, Peter; Shen, Hayley

The subject of wave-ice interaction has been advanced in recent years by small groups of researchers working on a similar range of topics in widely separated geographic locations. Their recent studies inspired a workshop on wave-ice interaction held at the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, England, December 16-18, 1991, where theories in all aspects of the physics of wave-ice interaction were compared.Conveners of the workshop hoped that plans for future observational and theoretical work dealing with outstanding issues in a collaborative way would emerge. The workshop, organized by the Commission on Sea Ice of the International Association for Physical Sciences of the Ocean (IAPSO), was co-chaired by Vernon Squire, professor of mathematics and statistics at the University of Otago, New Zealand, and Peter Wadhams, director of the Scott Polar Research Institute. Participants attended from Britain, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and the United States.

Polar Applications of Spaceborne Scatterometers

Science.gov (United States)

Long, David G.

2017-01-01

Wind scatterometers were originally developed for observation of near-surface winds over the ocean. They retrieve wind indirectly by measuring the normalized radar cross section (σo) of the surface, and estimating the wind via a geophysical model function relating σo to the vector wind. The σo measurements have proven to be remarkably capable in studies of the polar regions where they can map snow cover; detect the freeze/thaw state of forest, tundra, and ice; map and classify sea ice; and track icebergs. Further, a long time series of scatterometer σo observations is available to support climate studies. In addition to fundamental scientific research, scatterometer data are operationally used for sea-ice mapping to support navigation. Scatterometers are, thus, invaluable tools for monitoring the polar regions. In this paper, a brief review of some of the polar applications of spaceborne wind scatterometer data is provided. The paper considers both C-band and Ku-band scatterometers, and the relative merits of fan-beam and pencil-beam scatterometers in polar remote sensing are discussed. PMID:28919936

Psychrophilic and Psychrotolerant Microbial Extremophiles in Polar Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, Richard B.; Pikuta, Elena V.

2010-01-01

The microbial extremophiles that inhabit the polar regions of our planet are of tremendous significance. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microorganisms, which inhabit all of the cold environments on Earth have important applications to Bioremediation, Medicine, Pharmaceuticals, and many other areas of Biotechnology. Until recently, most of the research on polar microorganisms was confined to studies of polar diatoms, yeast, fungi and cyanobacteria. However, within the past three decades, extensive studies have been conducted to understand the bacteria and archaea that inhabit the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice, glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost and the cryptoendolithic, cryoconite and ice-bubble environments. These investigations have resulted in the discovery of many new genera and species of anaerobic and aerobic microbial extremophiles. Exotic enzymes, cold-shock proteins and pigments produced by some of the extremophiles from polar environments have the potential to be of great benefit to Mankind. Knowledge about microbial life in the polar regions is crucial to understanding the limitations and biodiversity of life on Earth and may provide valuable clues to the Origin of Life on Earth. The discovery of viable microorganisms in ancient ice from the Fox Tunnel, Alaska and the deep Vostok Ice has shown that microorganisms can remain alive while cryopreserved in ancient ice. The psychrophilic lithoautotrophic homoacetogen isolated from the deep anoxic trough of Lake Untersee is an ideal candidate for life that might inhabit comets or the polar caps of Mars. The spontaneous release of gas from within the Anuchin Glacier above Lake Untersee may provide clues to the ice geysers that erupt from the tiger stripe regions of Saturn s moon Enceladus. The methane productivity in the lower regimes of Lake Untersee may also provide insights into possible mechanisms for the recently discovered methane releases on Mars. Since most of the other water bearing bodies of our

Sea ice biogeochemistry: a guide for modellers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letizia Tedesco

Full Text Available Sea ice is a fundamental component of the climate system and plays a key role in polar trophic food webs. Nonetheless sea ice biogeochemical dynamics at large temporal and spatial scales are still rarely described. Numerical models may potentially contribute integrating among sparse observations, but available models of sea ice biogeochemistry are still scarce, whether their relevance for properly describing the current and future state of the polar oceans has been recently addressed. A general methodology to develop a sea ice biogeochemical model is presented, deriving it from an existing validated model application by extension of generic pelagic biogeochemistry model parameterizations. The described methodology is flexible and considers different levels of ecosystem complexity and vertical representation, while adopting a strategy of coupling that ensures mass conservation. We show how to apply this methodology step by step by building an intermediate complexity model from a published realistic application and applying it to analyze theoretically a typical season of first-year sea ice in the Arctic, the one currently needing the most urgent understanding. The aim is to (1 introduce sea ice biogeochemistry and address its relevance to ocean modelers of polar regions, supporting them in adding a new sea ice component to their modelling framework for a more adequate representation of the sea ice-covered ocean ecosystem as a whole, and (2 extend our knowledge on the relevant controlling factors of sea ice algal production, showing that beyond the light and nutrient availability, the duration of the sea ice season may play a key-role shaping the algal production during the on going and upcoming projected changes.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Copepods in ice-covered seas—Distribution, adaptations to seasonally limited food, metabolism, growth patterns and life cycle strategies in polar seas

Science.gov (United States)

Conover, R. J.; Huntley, M.

1991-07-01

While a seasonal ice cover limits light penetration into both polar seas for up to ten months a year, its presence is not entirely negative. The mixed layer under sea ice will generally be shallower than in open water at the same latitude and season. Ice forms a substrate on which primary production can be concentrated, a condition which contrasts with the generally dilute nutritional conditions which prevail in the remaining ocean. The combination of a shallow, generally stable mixed layer with a close proximity to abundant food make the under-ice zone a suitable nursery for both pelagic and benthic species, an upside-down benthos for opportunistic substrate browsers, and a rich feeding environment for species often considered to be neritic in temperate environments. Where the ice cover is not continuous there may be a retreating ice edge that facilitates the seasonal production of phytoplankton primarily through increased stability from the melt water. Ice edge blooms similarly encourage secondary production by pelagic animals. Pseudocalanus acuspes, which may be the most abundant and productive copepod in north polar latitudes, initiates growth at the start of the "spring bloom" of epontic algae, reaching sexual maturity at breakup or slightly before. In the Southern Hemisphere, the small neritic copepod Paralabidocera antarctica and adult krill have been observed to utilize ice algae. Calanus hyperboreus breeds in the dark season at depth and its buoyant eggs, slowly developing on the ascent, reach the under-ice layer in April as nauplii ready to benefit from the primary production there. On the other hand, C. glacialis may initiate ontogenetic migrations and reproduction in response to increased erosion of ice algae due to solar warming and melting at the ice-water interface. While the same species in a phytoplankton bloom near the ice edge reproduces actively, those under still-consolidated ice nearby can have immature gonads. Diel migration and diel feeding

Cl-36 in polar ice, rainwater and seawater

Science.gov (United States)

Finkel, R. C.; Nishiizumi, K.; Elmore, D.; Ferraro, R. D.; Gove, H. E.

1980-01-01

Concentrations of the cosmogenic radioisotope Cl-36 in Antarctic ice, rain, and an upper limit of the seawater value are determined using van de Graaff accelerator high energy mass spectrometry. Cl-36 concentrations in Antarctic ice range between 2.5 to 8.7 x 10 to the 6th atoms Cl-36/kg, while those concentrations in samples collected at the Alan Hills ice field locations where meteorites have been brought to the surface by glacial flow and ablation are found to vary by more than a factor of three. This variation is attributed either to the effects of atmospheric mixing and scavenging or to radioactive decay in old ice. The Cl-36 concentration found in a present sample of rainwater is much lower than that reported in samples collected in the early 1960's, suggesting the occurrence of a decrease in the concentration of atmospheric Cl-36 derived from nuclear weapons tests over this time period.

Using tri-axial accelerometers to identify wild polar bear behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Pagano, Anthony M.; Rode, Karyn D.; Cutting, A.; Owen, M.A.; Jensen, S.; Ware, J.V.; Robbins, C.T.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Obbard, M.E.; Middel, K.R.; Thiemann, G.W.; Williams, T.M.

2017-01-01

Tri-axial accelerometers have been used to remotely identify the behaviors of a wide range of taxa. Assigning behaviors to accelerometer data often involves the use of captive animals or surrogate species, as their accelerometer signatures are generally assumed to be similar to those of their wild counterparts. However, this has rarely been tested. Validated accelerometer data are needed for polar bears Ursus maritimus to understand how habitat conditions may influence behavior and energy demands. We used accelerometer and water conductivity data to remotely distinguish 10 polar bear behaviors. We calibrated accelerometer and conductivity data collected from collars with behaviors observed from video-recorded captive polar bears and brown bears U. arctos, and with video from camera collars deployed on free-ranging polar bears on sea ice and on land. We used random forest models to predict behaviors and found strong ability to discriminate the most common wild polar bear behaviors using a combination of accelerometer and conductivity sensor data from captive or wild polar bears. In contrast, models using data from captive brown bears failed to reliably distinguish most active behaviors in wild polar bears. Our ability to discriminate behavior was greatest when species- and habitat-specific data from wild individuals were used to train models. Data from captive individuals may be suitable for calibrating accelerometers, but may provide reduced ability to discriminate some behaviors. The accelerometer calibrations developed here provide a method to quantify polar bear behaviors to evaluate the impacts of declines in Arctic sea ice.

Accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures from reanalyses evaluated from A-Train CALIOP and MLS, COSMIC GPS RO, and the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions and ice clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, Alyn; Santee, Michelle L.

2018-02-01

We investigate the accuracy and precision of polar lower stratospheric temperatures (100-10 hPa during 2008-2013) reported in several contemporary reanalysis datasets comprising two versions of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and MERRA-2), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-I), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR). We also include the Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5.9.1 near-real-time analysis (GEOS-5.9.1). Comparisons of these datasets are made with respect to retrieved temperatures from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperatures, and independent absolute temperature references defined by the equilibrium thermodynamics of supercooled ternary solutions (STSs) and ice clouds. Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of polar stratospheric clouds are used to determine the cloud particle types within the Aura MLS geometric field of view. The thermodynamic calculations for STS and the ice frost point use the colocated MLS gas-phase measurements of HNO3 and H2O. The estimated bias and precision for the STS temperature reference, over the 68 to 21 hPa pressure range, are 0.6-1.5 and 0.3-0.6 K, respectively; for the ice temperature reference, they are 0.4 and 0.3 K, respectively. These uncertainties are smaller than those estimated for the retrieved MLS temperatures and also comparable to GPS RO uncertainties (bias 0.7 K) in the same pressure range. We examine a case study of the time-varying temperature structure associated with layered ice clouds formed by orographic gravity waves forced by flow over the Palmer Peninsula and

Evaluating and ranking threats to the long-term persistence of polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Rode, Karyn D.; Durner, George M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

2015-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) was listed as a globally threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008, mostly due to the significant threat to their future population viability from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice. A core mandate of the ESA is the development of a recovery plan that identifies steps to maintain viable populations of a listed species. A substantive evaluation of the relative influence of putative threats to population persistence is helpful to recovery planning. Because management actions must often be taken in the face of substantial information gaps, a formalized evaluation hypothesizing potential stressors and their relationships with population persistence can improve identification of relevant conservation actions. To this end, we updated a Bayesian network model previously used to forecast the future status of polar bears worldwide. We used new information on actual and predicted sea ice loss and polar bear responses to evaluate the relative influence of plausible threats and their mitigation through management actions on the persistence of polar bears in four ecoregions. We found that polar bear outcomes worsened over time through the end of the century under both stabilized and unabated greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways. Under the unabated pathway (i.e., RCP 8.5), the time it took for polar bear populations in two of four ecoregions to reach a dominant probability of greatly decreased was hastened by about 25 years. Under the stabilized GHG emission pathway (i.e., RCP 4.5), where GHG emissions peak around the year 2040, the polar bear population in the Archipelago Ecoregion of High Arctic Canada never reached a dominant probability of greatly decreased, reinforcing earlier suggestions of this ecoregion’s potential to serve as a long-term refugium. The most influential drivers of adverse polar bear outcomes were declines to overall sea ice conditions and to the marine prey base. Improved sea ice conditions

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Additions and corrections to the absorption coefficients of CO2 ice: Applications to the Martian south polar cap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvin, W.M.

1990-01-01

Reflectance spectra of carbon dioxide frosts were calculated using the optical constants provided by Warren (1986) for the wavelength region 2-6 μm. In comparing these calculated spectra to spectra of frosts observed in the laboratory and on the surface of Mars, problems in the optical constants presented by Warren (1986) became apparent. Absorption coefficients for CO 2 ice have been derived using laboratory reflectance measurements and the Hapke (1981) model for calculating diffuse reflectance. This provides approximate values in regions where no data were previously available and indicates where corrections to the compilation by Warren (1986) are required. Using these coefficients to calculate the reflectance of CO 2 ice at varying grain sizes indicates that a typical Mariner polar cap spectrum is dominated by absorptions due to CO 2 frost or ice at grain sizes that are quite large, probably of the order of millimeters to centimeters. There are indications of contamination of water frost or dust, but confirmation will require more precise absorption coefficients for solid CO 2 than can be obtained from the method used here

Spectral dependence of backscattering coefficient of mixed phase clouds over West Africa measured with two-wavelength Raman polarization lidar: Features attributed to ice-crystals corner reflection

Science.gov (United States)

Veselovskii, I.; Goloub, P.; Podvin, T.; Tanre, D.; Ansmann, A.; Korenskiy, M.; Borovoi, A.; Hu, Q.; Whiteman, D. N.

2017-11-01

The existing models predict that corner reflection (CR) of laser radiation by simple ice crystals of perfect shape, such as hexagonal columns or plates, can provide a significant contribution to the ice cloud backscattering. However in real clouds the CR effect may be suppressed due to crystal deformation and surface roughness. In contrast to the extinction coefficient, which is spectrally independent, consideration of diffraction associated with CR results in a spectral dependence of the backscattering coefficient. Thus measuring the spectral dependence of the cloud backscattering coefficient, the contribution of CR can be identified. The paper presents the results of profiling of backscattering coefficient (β) and particle depolarization ratio (δ) of ice and mixed-phase clouds over West Africa by means of a two-wavelength polarization Mie-Raman lidar operated at 355 nm and 532 nm during the SHADOW field campaign. The lidar observations were performed at a slant angle of 43 degree off zenith, thus CR from both randomly oriented crystals and oriented plates could be analyzed. For the most of the observations the cloud backscatter color ratio β355/β532 was close to 1.0, and no spectral features that might indicate the presence of CR of randomly oriented crystals were revealed. Still, in two measurement sessions we observed an increase of backscatter color ratio to a value of nearly 1.3 simultaneously with a decrease of the spectral depolarization ratio δ355/δ532 ratio from 1.0 to 0.8 inside the layers containing precipitating ice crystals. We attribute these changes in optical properties to corner reflections by horizontally oriented ice plates.

Considering polarization in MODIS-based cloud property retrievals by using a vector radiative transfer code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi, Bingqi; Huang, Xin; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; Kattawar, George W.

2014-01-01

In this study, a full-vector, adding–doubling radiative transfer model is used to investigate the influence of the polarization state on cloud property retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. Two sets of lookup tables (LUTs) are developed for the retrieval purposes, both of which provide water cloud and ice cloud reflectivity functions at two wavelengths in various sun-satellite viewing geometries. However, only one of the LUTs considers polarization. The MODIS reflectivity observations at 0.65 μm (band 1) and 2.13 μm (band 7) are used to infer the cloud optical thickness and particle effective diameter, respectively. Results indicate that the retrievals for both water cloud and ice cloud show considerable sensitivity to polarization. The retrieved water and ice cloud effective diameter and optical thickness differences can vary by as much as ±15% due to polarization state considerations. In particular, the polarization state has more influence on completely smooth ice particles than on severely roughened ice particles. - Highlights: • Impact of polarization on satellite-based retrieval of water/ice cloud properties is studied. • Inclusion of polarization can change water/ice optical thickness and effective diameter values by up to ±15%. • Influence of polarization on cloud property retrievals depends on sun-satellite viewing geometries

Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

Science.gov (United States)

Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

Validation of the FAST skating protocol to predict aerobic power in ice hockey players.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrella, Nicholas J; Montelpare, William J; Nystrom, Murray; Plyley, Michael; Faught, Brent E

2007-08-01

Few studies have reported a sport-specific protocol to measure the aerobic power of ice hockey players using a predictive process. The purpose of our study was to validate an ice hockey aerobic field test on players of varying ages, abilities, and levels. The Faught Aerobic Skating Test (FAST) uses an on-ice continuous skating protocol on a course measuring 160 feet (48.8 m) using a CD to pace the skater with a beep signal to cross the starting line at each end of the course. The FAST incorporates the principle of increasing workload at measured time intervals during a continuous skating exercise. Step-wise multiple regression modelling was used to determine the estimate of aerobic power. Participants completed a maximal aerobic power test using a modified Bruce incremental treadmill protocol, as well as the on-ice FAST. Normative data were collected on 406 ice hockey players (291 males, 115 females) ranging in age from 9 to 25 y. A regression to predict maximum aerobic power was developed using body mass (kg), height (m), age (y), and maximum completed lengths of the FAST as the significant predictors of skating aerobic power (adjusted R2 = 0.387, SEE = 7.25 mL.kg-1.min-1, p < 0.0001). These results support the application of the FAST in estimating aerobic power among male and female competitive ice hockey players between the ages of 9 and 25 years.

Determination of a Critical Sea Ice Thickness Threshold for the Central Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, V.; Frauenfeld, O. W.; Nowotarski, C. J.

2017-12-01

While sea ice extent is readily measurable from satellite observations and can be used to assess the overall survivability of the Arctic sea ice pack, determining the spatial variability of sea ice thickness remains a challenge. Turbulent and conductive heat fluxes are extremely sensitive to ice thickness but are dominated by the sensible heat flux, with energy exchange expected to increase with thinner ice cover. Fluxes over open water are strongest and have the greatest influence on the atmosphere, while fluxes over thick sea ice are minimal as heat conduction from the ocean through thick ice cannot reach the atmosphere. We know that turbulent energy fluxes are strongest over open ocean, but is there a "critical thickness of ice" where fluxes are considered non-negligible? Through polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations, this study assesses how the wintertime Arctic surface boundary layer, via sensible heat flux exchange and surface air temperature, responds to sea ice thinning. The region immediately north of Franz Josef Land is characterized by a thickness gradient where sea ice transitions from the thickest multi-year ice to the very thin marginal ice seas. This provides an ideal location to simulate how the diminishing Arctic sea ice interacts with a warming atmosphere. Scenarios include both fixed sea surface temperature domains for idealized thickness variability, and fixed ice fields to detect changes in the ocean-ice-atmosphere energy exchange. Results indicate that a critical thickness threshold exists below 1 meter. The threshold is between 0.4-1 meters thinner than the critical thickness for melt season survival - the difference between first year and multi-year ice. Turbulent heat fluxes and surface air temperature increase as sea ice thickness transitions from perennial ice to seasonal ice. While models predict a sea ice free Arctic at the end of the warm season in future decades, sea ice will continue to transform

EBSD in Antarctic and Greenland Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Weikusat, Ilka; Kuiper, Ernst-Jan; Pennock, Gill; Sepp, Kipfstuhl; Drury, Martyn

2017-04-01

Ice, particularly the extensive amounts found in the polar ice sheets, impacts directly on the global climate by changing the albedo and indirectly by supplying an enormous water reservoir that affects sea level change. The discharge of material into the oceans is partly controlled by the melt excess over snow accumulation, partly by the dynamic flow of ice. In addition to sliding over bedrock, an ice body deforms gravitationally under its own weight. In order to improve our description of this flow, ice microstructure studies are needed that elucidate the dominant deformation and recrystallization mechanisms involved. Deformation of hexagonal ice is highly anisotropic: ice is easily sheared in the basal plane and is about two orders of magnitude harder parallel to the c-axis. As dislocation creep is the dominant deformation mechanism in polar ice this strong anisotropy needs to be understood in terms of dislocation activity. The high anisotropy of the ice crystal is usually ascribed to a particular behaviour of dislocations in ice, namely the extension of dislocations into partials on the basal plane. Analysis of EBSD data can help our understanding of dislocation activity by characterizing subgrain boundary types thus providing a tool for comprehensive dislocation characterization in polar ice. Cryo-EBSD microstructure in combination with light microscopy measurements from ice core material from Antarctica (EPICA-DML deep ice core) and Greenland (NEEM deep ice core) are presented and interpreted regarding substructure identification and characterization. We examined one depth for each ice core (EDML: 656 m, NEEM: 719 m) to obtain the first comparison of slip system activity from the two ice sheets. The subgrain boundary to grain boundary threshold misorientation was taken to be 3-5° (Weikusat et al. 2011). EBSD analyses suggest that a large portion of edge dislocations with slip systems basal gliding on the basal plane were indeed involved in forming subgrain

Life in Ice: Implications to Astrobiology

Science.gov (United States)

Hoover, Richard B.

2009-01-01

During the 2008 Tawani International Expedition Schirmacher Oasis/Lake Untersee Antarctica Expedition, living and instantly motile bacteria were found in freshly thawed meltwater from ice of the Schirmacher Oasis Lakes, the Anuchin Glacier ice and samples of the that perennial ice sheet above Lake Untersee. This phenomenon of living bacteria encased in ice had previously been observed in the 32,000 year old ice of the Fox Tunnel. The bacteria found in this ice included the strain FTR1T which was isolated and published as valid new species (Carnobacterium pleistocenium) the first validly published living Pleistocene organism still alive today. Living bacteria were also extracted from ancient ice cores from Vostok, Antarctica. The discovery that many strains of bacteria are able to survive and remain alive while frozen in ice sheets for long periods of time may have direct relevance to Astrobiology. The abundance of viable bacteria in the ice sheets of Antarctica suggests that the presence of live bacteria in ice is common, rather than an isolated phenomenon. This paper will discuss the results of recent studies at NSSTC of bacteria cryopreserved in ice. This paper advances the hypothesis that cryopreserved cells, and perhaps even viable bacterial cells, may exist today--frozen in the water-ice of lunar craters, the Polar Caps or craters of Mars; or in the permafrost of Mars; ice and rocks of comets or water bearing asteroids; or in the frozen crusts of the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn. The existence of bacterial life in ice suggests that it may not be necessary to drill through a thick ice crust to reach liquid water seas deep beneath the icy crusts of Europa, Ganymede and Enceladus. The presence of viable bacteria in the ice of the Earth s Polar Caps suggests that the possibility that cryo-panspermia (i.e., the trans-planetary transfer of microbial life by impact ejection/spallation of bacteria-rich polar ice masses) deserves serious consideration and study as a

Numerical modeling of polar mesocyclones generation mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Sergeev, Dennis; Stepanenko, Victor

2013-04-01

Polar mesocyclones, commonly referred to as polar lows, remain of great interest due to their complicated dynamics. These mesoscale vortices are small short-living objects that are formed over the observation-sparse high-latitude oceans, and therefore, their evolution can hardly be observed and predicted numerically. The origin of polar mesoscale cyclones is still a matter of uncertainty, though the recent numerical investigations [3] have exposed a strong dependence of the polar mesocyclone development upon the magnitude of baroclinicity. Nevertheless, most of the previous studies focused on the individual polar low (the so-called case studies), with too many factors affecting it simultaneously. None of the earlier studies suggested a clear picture of polar mesocyclone generation within an idealized experiment, where it is possible to look deeper into each single physical process. The present paper concentrates on the initial triggering mechanism of the polar mesocyclone. As it is reported by many researchers, some mesocyclones are formed by the surface forcing, namely the uneven distribution of heat fluxes. That feature is common on the ice boundaries [2], where intense air stream flows from the cold ice surface to the warm sea surface. Hence, the resulting conditions are shallow baroclinicity and strong surface heat fluxes, which provide an arising polar mesocyclone with potential energy source converting it to the kinetic energy of the vortex. It is shown in this paper that different surface characteristics, including thermal parameters and, for example, the shape of an ice edge, determine an initial phase of a polar low life cycle. Moreover, it is shown what initial atmospheric state is most preferable for the formation of a new polar mesocyclone or in maintaining and reinforcing the existing one. The study is based on idealized high-resolution (~2 km) numerical experiment in which baroclinicity, stratification, initial wind profile and disturbance, surface

Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

2017-01-01

Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

Massive CO2 Ice Deposits Sequestered in the South Polar Layered Deposits of Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Roger J.; Davis, Brian J.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Byrne, Shane; Mellon, Michael T.; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Campbell, Bruce A.; Carter, Lynn M.; Smith, Isaac B.; Holt, John W.; Smrekar, Suzanne E.; Nunes, Daniel C.; Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Egan, Anthony F.; Titus, Timothy N.; Seu, Roberto

2011-01-01

Shallow Radar soundings from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter reveal a buried deposit of carbon dioxide (CO2) ice within the south polar layered deposits of Mars with a volume of 9500 to 12,500 cubic kilometers, about 30 times that previously estimated for the south pole residual cap. The deposit occurs within a stratigraphic unit that is uniquely marked by collapse features and other evidence of interior CO2 volatile release. If released into the atmosphere at times of high obliquity, the CO2 reservoir would increase the atmospheric mass by up to 80%, leading to more frequent and intense dust storms and to more regions where liquid water could persist without boiling.

Plume Activity and Tidal Deformation on Enceladus Influenced by Faults and Variable Ice Shell Thickness.

Science.gov (United States)

Běhounková, Marie; Souček, Ondřej; Hron, Jaroslav; Čadek, Ondřej

2017-09-01

We investigated the effect of variations in ice shell thickness and of the tiger stripe fractures crossing Enceladus' south polar terrain on the moon's tidal deformation by performing finite element calculations in three-dimensional geometry. The combination of thinning in the polar region and the presence of faults has a synergistic effect that leads to an increase of both the displacement and stress in the south polar terrain by an order of magnitude compared to that of the traditional model with a uniform shell thickness and without faults. Assuming a simplified conductive heat transfer and neglecting the heat sources below the ice shell, we computed the global heat budget of the ice shell. For the inelastic properties of the shell described by a Maxwell viscoelastic model, we show that unrealistically low average viscosity of the order of 10 13 Pa s is necessary for preserving the volume of the ocean, suggesting the important role of the heat sources in the deep interior. Similarly, low viscosity is required to predict the observed delay of the plume activity, which hints at other delaying mechanisms than just the viscoelasticity of the ice shell. The presence of faults results in large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of geysering activity compared to the traditional models without faults. Our model contributes to understanding the physical mechanisms that control the fault activity, and it provides potentially useful information for future missions that will sample the plume for evidence of life. Key Words: Enceladus-Tidal deformation-Faults-Variable ice shell thickness-Tidal heating-Plume activity and timing. Astrobiology 17, 941-954.

Ice sheet anisotropy measured with polarimetric ice sounding radar

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dall, Jørgen

2010-01-01

For polar ice sheets, valuable stress and strain information can be deduced from crystal orientation fabrics (COF) and their prevailing c-axis alignment. Polarimetric radio echo sounding is a promising technique to measure the anisotropic electromagnetic propagation and reflection properties asso...

Seasonal sea ice predictions for the Arctic based on assimilation of remotely sensed observations

Science.gov (United States)

Kauker, F.; Kaminski, T.; Ricker, R.; Toudal-Pedersen, L.; Dybkjaer, G.; Melsheimer, C.; Eastwood, S.; Sumata, H.; Karcher, M.; Gerdes, R.

2015-10-01

The recent thinning and shrinking of the Arctic sea ice cover has increased the interest in seasonal sea ice forecasts. Typical tools for such forecasts are numerical models of the coupled ocean sea ice system such as the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Model (NAOSIM). The model uses as input the initial state of the system and the atmospheric boundary condition over the forecasting period. This study investigates the potential of remotely sensed ice thickness observations in constraining the initial model state. For this purpose it employs a variational assimilation system around NAOSIM and the Alfred Wegener Institute's CryoSat-2 ice thickness product in conjunction with the University of Bremen's snow depth product and the OSI SAF ice concentration and sea surface temperature products. We investigate the skill of predictions of the summer ice conditions starting in March for three different years. Straightforward assimilation of the above combination of data streams results in slight improvements over some regions (especially in the Beaufort Sea) but degrades the over-all fit to independent observations. A considerable enhancement of forecast skill is demonstrated for a bias correction scheme for the CryoSat-2 ice thickness product that uses a spatially varying scaling factor.

SMOS sea ice product: Operational application and validation in the Barents Sea marginal ice zone

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaleschke, Lars; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Maaß, Nina

2016-01-01

system for ship route optimisation has been developed and was tested during this field campaign with the ice-strengthened research vessel RV Lance. The ship cruise was complemented with coordinated measurements from a helicopter and the research aircraft Polar 5. Sea ice thickness was measured using...... an electromagnetic induction (EM) system from the bow of RV Lance and another EM-system towed below the helicopter. Polar 5 was equipped among others with the L-band radiometer EMIRAD-2. The experiment yielded a comprehensive data set allowing the evaluation of the operational forecast and route optimisation system...

A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Vongraven, Dag; Aars, Jon; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Belikov, Stanislav; Born, Erik W.; DeBruyn, T.D.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Durner, George M.; Gill, Michael J.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Omelak, Jack; Ovsyanikov, Nikita; Peacock, Elizabeth; Richardson, E.E.; Sahanatien, Vicki; Stirling, Ian; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework

Implications of rapid environmental change for polar bear behavior and sociality

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.

2017-01-01

Historically, the Arctic sea ice has functioned as a structural barrier that has limited the nature and extent of interactions between humans and polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, declining sea ice extent, brought about by global climate change, is increasing the potential for human-polar bear interactions. Loss of sea ice habitat is driving changes to both human and polar bear behavior—it is facilitating increases in human activities (e.g., offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, recreation), while also causing the displacement of bears from preferred foraging habitat (i.e., sea ice over biologically productive shallow) to land in some portions of their range. The end result of these changes is that polar bears are spending greater amounts of time in close proximity to people. Coexistence between humans and polar bears will require imposing mechanisms to manage further development, as well as mitigation strategies that reduce the burden to local communities.

Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clarke, A. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harris, C.M. [Environmental Research and Assessment, Grantchester (United Kingdom)

2003-07-01

This review of polar marine ecosystems covers both the Arctic and Antarctic, identifying the major threats and, where possible, predicting their possible state(s) in 2025. Although the two polar regions are similar in their extreme photoperiod, low temperatures, and in being heavily influenced by snow and ice, in almost all other respects they are very different. The Arctic Ocean is a basin surrounded by continental landmasses close to, and influenced by, large populations and industrial activities. In contrast, the Southern Ocean is contiguous with all the other great oceans and surrounds a single land mass; Antarctica is remote from major centres of population and sources of pollution. Marine environments in both Polar Regions have been highly disturbed by fishing activity, but, in terms of pollution, some areas remain among the most pristine in the world. There are, however, both local and global pressures. Over the 2025 time horizon, the greatest concern for the Arctic is probably the ecological implications of climate change, particularly insofar as sea ice extent and duration are likely to be affected. Such changes are not expected to be as pronounced in the Southern Ocean over this time period, and concerns are related more to direct threats from harvesting of marine living resources, and the ability to manage these fisheries sustainably. In both Polar Regions, the capacity of marine ecosystems to withstand the cumulative impact of a number of pressures, including climate change, pollution and overexploitation, acting synergistically is of greatest concern. (author)

High resolution modelling of the decreasing Arctic sea ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, K. S.; Rasmussen, T. A. S.; Blüthgen, Jonas

2012-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly decreasing and thinning over the last decade, with minimum ice extent in 2007 and almost as low extent in 2011. This study investigates two aspects of the decreasing ice cover; first the large scale thinning and changing dynamics of the polar sea ice, and...

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

Science.gov (United States)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

rising at 5 ±4 mm/yr; Palmer Land is observed to be rising at 3 ±3 mm/yr. The predictions of the ICE-5G (VM2) model and those of the postglacial rebound component of the model of Simons, Ivins, and James [2010] had predicted uplift to be significantly faster than observed in this region, as previously documented in Argus et al [2011]. From a global perspective the new ICE-6G (VM5a) model is also a further significant improvement on the previous ICE-5G (VM2) model in that the degree two and order one components of its predicted time dependence of geoid height are tightly constrained by the recent inferences of Roy and Peltier [2011] of the post-GRACE-launch values of the speed and direction of true polar wander and the non-tidal acceleration of the lod. .

Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

2018-02-01

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

Plume Activity and Tidal Deformation on Enceladus Influenced by Faults and Variable Ice Shell Thickness

Science.gov (United States)

Běhounková, Marie; Souček, Ondřej; Hron, Jaroslav; Čadek, Ondřej

2017-09-01

We investigated the effect of variations in ice shell thickness and of the tiger stripe fractures crossing Enceladus' south polar terrain on the moon's tidal deformation by performing finite element calculations in three-dimensional geometry. The combination of thinning in the polar region and the presence of faults has a synergistic effect that leads to an increase of both the displacement and stress in the south polar terrain by an order of magnitude compared to that of the traditional model with a uniform shell thickness and without faults. Assuming a simplified conductive heat transfer and neglecting the heat sources below the ice shell, we computed the global heat budget of the ice shell. For the inelastic properties of the shell described by a Maxwell viscoelastic model, we show that unrealistically low average viscosity of the order of 10^{13} Pa s is necessary for preserving the volume of the ocean, suggesting the important role of the heat sources in the deep interior. Similarly, low viscosity is required to predict the observed delay of the plume activity, which hints at other delaying mechanisms than just the viscoelasticity of the ice shell. The presence of faults results in large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of geysering activity compared to the traditional models without faults. Our model contributes to understanding the physical mechanisms that control the fault activity, and it provides potentially useful information for future missions that will sample the plume for evidence of life.

Looking Through the Ice: Searching for Past and Present Habitable Zones in the Martian North Polar Region Using MOLA DEMs

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, M. C.; Farmer, J. D.

2002-12-01

Hydrothermal systems have been acknowledged as important gateways to accessing a potential subsurface biology (extant or extinct) on Mars. Groundwater circulation, sustained for up to one billion years by large plutonic bodies (as modeled by previous authors), might well be capable of tapping into a deep subsurface biosphere and subsequently carrying members of microbial communities to the surface. Hence, future robotic missions with near surface drilling capabilities may be able to unearth cryopreserved biosignatures, or perhaps extant organisms, in the midst of the hydrothermal system itself. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) constructed from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data have proved to be a valuable tool in the search for potential habitable zones for extant and extinct life, and the detection of possible hydrothermal systems on Mars. When formatted for use in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software package such as ESRI's ArcView, MOLA data can be used to compose DEMs. Those DEMs can, in turn, be used to create contour maps, to allow profiling through features of interest, and to generate hillshaded views, which provide an image-like perspective of a selected area. Furthermore, DEMs eliminate many problems associated with photographic images such as over-/underexposure, poor focus, and albedo values too high or low for optimal observations. During this study, DEMs were used in the analysis of several regions north of 70° N latitude, in the Martian north polar cap and polar cap margin. The regions were selected during a Viking image survey that concentrated on the location of surface expressions of potential magma-ice interactions, and hence past or present hydrothermal activity. Specific features sought included individual volcanoes and volcanic fields, as well as pseudocrater fields, subglacial volcanic constructs (such as tuyas and tindar ridges), fluvial channels and outwash plains (indicative of j”kulhlaup flooding events), possible

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

2015-06-01

The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Richard J.; Jones, Julie M.; Hanna, Edward; Scaife, Adam A.; Erdélyi, Róbert

2017-06-01

The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.

Outreach/education interface for Cryosphere models using the Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory

Science.gov (United States)

Larour, E. Y.; Halkides, D. J.; Romero, V.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.

2014-12-01

In the past decade, great strides have been made in the development of models capable of projecting the future evolution of glaciers and the polar ice sheets in a changing climate. These models are now capable of replicating some of the trends apparent in satellite observations. However, because this field is just now maturing, very few efforts have been dedicated to adapting these capabilities to education. Technologies that have been used in outreach efforts in Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences still have not been extended to Cryospheric Science. We present a cutting-edge, technologically driven virtual laboratory, geared towards outreach and k-12 education, dedicated to the polar ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, and their role as major contributors to sea level rise in coming decades. VISL (Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory) relies on state-of-the art Web GL rendering of polar ice sheets, Android/iPhone and web portability using Javascript, as well as C++ simulations (back-end) based on the Ice Sheet System Model, the NASA model for simulating the evolution of polar ice sheets. Using VISL, educators and students can have an immersive experience into the world of polar ice sheets, while at the same exercising the capabilities of a state-of-the-art climate model, all of it embedded into an education experience that follows the new STEM standards for education.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

Lunar true polar wander inferred from polar hydrogen.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegler, M A; Miller, R S; Keane, J T; Laneuville, M; Paige, D A; Matsuyama, I; Lawrence, D J; Crotts, A; Poston, M J

2016-03-24

The earliest dynamic and thermal history of the Moon is not well understood. The hydrogen content of deposits near the lunar poles may yield insight into this history, because these deposits (which are probably composed of water ice) survive only if they remain in permanent shadow. If the orientation of the Moon has changed, then the locations of the shadowed regions will also have changed. The polar hydrogen deposits have been mapped by orbiting neutron spectrometers, and their observed spatial distribution does not match the expected distribution of water ice inferred from present-day lunar temperatures. This finding is in contrast to the distribution of volatiles observed in similar thermal environments at Mercury's poles. Here we show that polar hydrogen preserves evidence that the spin axis of the Moon has shifted: the hydrogen deposits are antipodal and displaced equally from each pole along opposite longitudes. From the direction and magnitude of the inferred reorientation, and from analysis of the moments of inertia of the Moon, we hypothesize that this change in the spin axis, known as true polar wander, was caused by a low-density thermal anomaly beneath the Procellarum region. Radiogenic heating within this region resulted in the bulk of lunar mare volcanism and altered the density structure of the Moon, changing its moments of inertia. This resulted in true polar wander consistent with the observed remnant polar hydrogen. This thermal anomaly still exists and, in part, controls the current orientation of the Moon. The Procellarum region was most geologically active early in lunar history, which implies that polar wander initiated billions of years ago and that a large portion of the measured polar hydrogen is ancient, recording early delivery of water to the inner Solar System. Our hypothesis provides an explanation for the antipodal distribution of lunar polar hydrogen, and connects polar volatiles to the geologic and geophysical evolution of the Moon

Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Pilfold, Nicholas W; Hedman, Daryll; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Lunn, Nicholas J; Richardson, Evan

2016-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.

Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

Science.gov (United States)

Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

2017-04-01

Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

Evidence of recent changes in the ice regime of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic from spaceborne satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Surdu, Cristina M.; Duguay, Claude R.; Fernández Prieto, Diego

2016-05-01

Arctic lakes, through their ice cover phenology, are a key indicator of climatic changes that the high-latitude environment is experiencing. In the case of lakes in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), many of which are ice covered more than 10 months per year, warmer temperatures could result in ice regime shifts. Within the dominant polar-desert environment, small local warmer areas have been identified. These relatively small regions - polar oases - with longer growing seasons and greater biological productivity and diversity are secluded from the surrounding barren polar desert. The ice regimes of 11 lakes located in both polar-desert and polar-oasis environments, with surface areas between 4 and 542 km2, many of unknown bathymetry, were documented. In order to investigate the response of ice cover of lakes in the CAA to climate conditions during recent years, a 15-year time series (1997-2011) of RADARSAT-1/2 ScanSAR Wide Swath, ASAR Wide Swath, and Landsat acquisitions were analyzed. Results show that melt onset occurred earlier for all observed lakes. With the exception of Lower Murray Lake, all lakes experienced earlier summer ice minimum and water-clear-of-ice (WCI) dates, with greater changes being observed for polar-oasis lakes (9-24 days earlier WCI dates for lakes located in polar oases and 2-20 days earlier WCI dates for polar-desert lakes). Additionally, results suggest that some lakes may be transitioning from a perennial/multiyear to a seasonal ice regime, with only a few lakes maintaining a multiyear ice cover on occasional years. Aside Lake Hazen and Murray Lakes, which preserved their ice cover during the summer of 2009, no residual ice was observed on any of the other lakes from 2007 to 2011.

Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Beig, Gufran; Sahu, Saroj; Fasullo, John; Orlikowski, Daniel

2010-04-15

Recent thinning of glaciers over the Himalayas (sometimes referred to as the third polar region) have raised concern on future water supplies since these glaciers supply water to large river systems that support millions of people inhabiting the surrounding areas. Black carbon (BC) aerosols, released from incomplete combustion, have been increasingly implicated as causing large changes in the hydrology and radiative forcing over Asia and its deposition on snow is thought to increase snow melt. In India BC emissions from biofuel combustion is highly prevalent and compared to other regions, BC aerosol amounts are high. Here, we quantify the impact of BC aerosols on snow cover and precipitation from 1990 to 2010 over the Indian subcontinental region using two different BC emission inventories. New estimates indicate that Indian BC emissions from coal and biofuel are large and transport is expected to expand rapidly in coming years. We show that over the Himalayas, from 1990 to 2000, simulated snow/ice cover decreases by {approx}0.9% due to aerosols. The contribution of the enhanced Indian BC to this decline is {approx}36%, similar to that simulated for 2000 to 2010. Spatial patterns of modeled changes in snow cover and precipitation are similar to observations (from 1990 to 2000), and are mainly obtained with the newer BC estimates.

Climate change and the increasing impact of polar bears on bird populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jouke eProp

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The Arctic is becoming warmer at a high rate, and contractions in the extent of sea ice are currently changing the habitats of marine top-predators dependent on ice. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus depend on sea ice for hunting seals. For these top-predators, longer ice-free seasons are hypothesized to force the bears to hunt for alternative terrestrial food, such as eggs from colonial breeding birds. We analyzed time-series of polar bear observations at four locations on Spitsbergen (Svalbard and one in east Greenland. Summer occurrence of polar bears, measured as the probability of encountering bears and the number of days with bear presence, has increased significantly from the 1970/80s to the present. The shifts in polar bear occurrence coincided with trends for shorter sea ice seasons and less sea ice during the spring in the study area. This resulted in a strong inverse relationship between the probability of bear encounters on land and the length of the sea ice season. Within ten years after their first appearance on land, polar bears had advanced their arrival dates by almost 30 days. Direct observations of nest predation showed that polar bears may severely affect reproductive success of the barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis, common eider (Somateria mollissima and glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus. Nest predation was strongest in years when the polar bears arrived well before hatch, with more than 90% of all nests being predated. The results are similar to findings from Canada, and large-scale processes, such as climate and subsequent habitat changes, are pinpointed as the most likely drivers in various parts of the Arctic. We suggest that the increasing, earlier appearance of bears on land in summer reflects behavioral adaptations by a small segment of the population to cope with a reduced hunting range on sea ice. This exemplifies how behavioral adaptations may contribute to the cascading effects of climate change.

Impact of GFZ's Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts on Polar Motion Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Dill, Robert; Dobslaw, Henryk

2017-04-01

The Earth System Modelling group at GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam offers now 6-day forecasts of Earth rotation excitation due to atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic angular momentum changes that are consistent with its 40 years-long EAM series. Those EAM forecasts are characterized by an improved long-term consistency due to the introduction of a time-invariant high-resolution reference topography into the AAM processing that accounts for occasional NWP model changes. In addition, all tidal signals from both atmosphere and ocean have been separated, and the temporal resolution of both AAM and OAM has been increased to 3 hours. Analysis of an extended set of EAM short-term hindcasts revealed positive prediction skills for up to 6 days into the future when compared to a persistent forecast. Whereas UT1 predictions in particular rely on an accurate AAM forecast, skillfull polar motion prediction requires high-quality OAM forecasts as well. We will present in this contribution the results from a multi-year hindcast experiment, demonstrating that the polar motion prediction as currently available from Bulletin A can be improved in particular for lead-times between 2 and 5 days by incorporating OAM forecasts. We will also report about early results obtained at Observatoire de Paris to predict polar motion from the integration of GFZ's 6-day EAM forecasts into the Liouville equation in a routine setting, that fully takes into account the operational latencies of all required input products.

Evidence for Surface Water Ice in the Lunar Polar Regions Using Reflectance Measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and Temperature Measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Elizabeth A.; Lucey, Paul G.; Lemelin, Myriam; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Mazarico, Erwan; Aharonson, Oded; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Hayne, Paul O.; Neumann, Gregory A.;

Evidence for surface water ice in the lunar polar regions using reflectance measurements from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter and temperature measurements from the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Elizabeth A.; Lucey, Paul G.; Lemelin, Myriam; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Mazarico, Erwan; Aharonson, Oded; Williams, Jean-Pierre; Hayne, Paul O.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Paige, David A.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.

2017-08-01

We find that the reflectance of the lunar surface within 5° of latitude of the South Pole increases rapidly with decreasing temperature, near ∼110 K, behavior consistent with the presence of surface water ice. The North polar region does not show this behavior, nor do South polar surfaces at latitudes more than 5° from the pole. This South pole reflectance anomaly persists when analysis is limited to surfaces with slopes less than 10° to eliminate false detection due to the brightening effect of mass wasting, and also when the very bright south polar crater Shackleton is excluded from the analysis. We also find that south polar regions of permanent shadow that have been reported to be generally brighter at 1064 nm do not show anomalous reflectance when their annual maximum surface temperatures are too high to preserve water ice. This distinction is not observed at the North Pole. The reflectance excursion on surfaces with maximum temperatures below 110 K is superimposed on a general trend of increasing reflectance with decreasing maximum temperature that is present throughout the polar regions in the north and south; we attribute this trend to a temperature or illumination-dependent space weathering effect (e.g. Hemingway et al., 2015). We also find a sudden increase in reflectance with decreasing temperature superimposed on the general trend at 200 K and possibly at 300 K. This may indicate the presence of other volatiles such as sulfur or organics. We identified and mapped surfaces with reflectances so high as to be unlikely to be part of an ice-free population. In this south we find a similar distribution found by Hayne et al. (2015) based on UV properties. In the north a cluster of pixels near that pole may represent a limited frost exposure.

Ice formation and growth shape bacterial community structure in Baltic Sea drift ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Eronen-Rasimus, Eeva; Lyra, Christina; Rintala, Janne-Markus; Jürgens, Klaus; Ikonen, Vilma; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

2015-02-01

Drift ice, open water and under-ice water bacterial communities covering several developmental stages from open water to thick ice were studied in the northern Baltic Sea. The bacterial communities were assessed with 16S rRNA gene terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism and cloning, together with bacterial abundance and production measurements. In the early stages, open water and pancake ice were dominated by Alphaproteobacteria and Actinobacteria, which are common bacterial groups in Baltic Sea wintertime surface waters. The pancake ice bacterial communities were similar to the open-water communities, suggesting that the parent water determines the sea-ice bacterial community in the early stages of sea-ice formation. In consolidated young and thick ice, the bacterial communities were significantly different from water bacterial communities as well as from each other, indicating community development in Baltic Sea drift ice along with ice-type changes. The thick ice was dominated by typical sea-ice genera from classes Flavobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria, similar to those in polar sea-ice bacterial communities. Since the thick ice bacterial community was remarkably different from that of the parent seawater, results indicate that thick ice bacterial communities were recruited from the rarer members of the seawater bacterial community. © FEMS 2014. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Water Vapor, Temperature, and Ice Particles in Polar Mesosphere as Measured by SABER/TIMED and OSIRIS/Odin Instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Feofilov, A. G.; Petelina, S. V.; Kutepov, A. A.; Pesnell, W. D.; Goldberg, R. A.

2009-01-01

Although many new details on the properties of mesospheric ice particles that farm Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) and also cause polar mesospheric summer echoes have been recently revealed, certain aspects of mesospheric ice microphysics and dynamics still remain open. The detailed relation between PMC parameters and properties of their environment, as well as interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in PMC properties that are possibly related to global change, are among those open questions. In this work, mesospheric temperature and water vapor concentration measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are used to study the properties of PMCs with respect to the surrounding atmosphere. The cloud parameters, namely location, brightness, and altitude, are obtained from the observations made by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) on the Odin satellite. About a thousand of simultaneous common volume measurements made by SABER and OSIRIS in both hemispheres from 2002 until 2008 are used. The correlation between PMC brightness (and occurrence rate) and temperatures at PMC altitudes and at the mesopause is analysed. The relation between PMC parameters, frost point temperature, and gaseous water vapor content in and below the cloud is also discussed. Interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in the above parameters, as well as in PMC peak altitudes and mesopause altitudes are evaluated.

Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets

Science.gov (United States)

Rignot, Eric (Editor)

1999-01-01

The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative

An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Charmain D; Kovacs, Kit M; Ims, Rolf A; Aars, Jon; Lydersen, Christian

2017-09-01

Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

Science.gov (United States)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

2013-01-01

flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. The PSL test has helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. The results from the computer simulation identified prevalent trends in wet bulb temperature, ice particle melt ratio, and engine inlet temperature as a function of altitude for predicting engine icing risk due to ice crystal ingestion.

Evaluation of the limit ice thickness for the hull of various Finnish-Swedish ice class vessels navigating in the Russian Arctic

OpenAIRE

Pentti Kujala; Mihkel Kõrgesaar; Jorma Kämäräinen

2018-01-01

Selection of suitable ice class for ships operation is an important but not simple task. The increased exploitation of the Polar waters, both seasonal periods and geographical areas, as well as the introduction of new international design standards such as Polar Code, reduces the relevancy of using existing experience as basis for the selection, and new methods and knowledge have to be developed. This paper will analyse what can be the limiting ice thickness for ships navigating in the Russia...

Do physical maturity and birth date predict talent in male youth ice hockey players?

Science.gov (United States)

Sherar, Lauren B; Baxter-Jones, Adam D G; Faulkner, Robert A; Russell, Keith W

2007-06-01

The aim of this study was to examine the relationships among biological maturity, physical size, relative age (i.e. birth date), and selection into a male Canadian provincial age-banded ice hockey team. In 2003, 619 male ice hockey players aged 14-15 years attended Saskatchewan provincial team selection camps, 281 of whom participated in the present study. Data from 93 age-matched controls were obtained from the Saskatchewan Pediatric Bone Mineral Accrual Study (1991-1997). During the initial selection camps, birth dates, heights, sitting heights, and body masses were recorded. Age at peak height velocity, an indicator of biological maturity, was determined in the controls and predicted in the ice hockey players. Data were analysed using one-way analysis of variance, logistic regression, and a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ice hockey players selected for the final team were taller, heavier, and more mature (P born in the months January to June. In conclusion, team selectors appear to preferentially select early maturing male ice hockey players who have birth dates early in the selection year.

Polar bears, Ursus maritimus

Science.gov (United States)

Rode, Karyn D.; Stirling, Ian

2017-01-01

Polar bears are the largest of the eight species of bears found worldwide and are covered in a pigment-free fur giving them the appearance of being white. They are the most carnivorous of bear species consuming a high-fat diet, primarily of ice-associated seals and other marine mammals. They range throughout the circumpolar Arctic to the southernmost extent of seasonal pack ice.

Modeling the Fracture of Ice Sheets on Parallel Computers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waisman, Haim [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Tuminaro, Ray [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2013-10-10

The objective of this project was to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. This objective was achieved by developing novel physics based models for ice, novel numerical tools to enable the modeling of the physics and by collaboration with the ice community experts. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. To this end, our research findings through this project offers significant advancement to the field and closes a large gap of knowledge in understanding and modeling the fracture of ice sheets in the polar regions. Thus, we believe that our objective has been achieved and our research accomplishments are significant. This is corroborated through a set of published papers, posters and presentations at technical conferences in the field. In particular significant progress has been made in the mechanics of ice, fracture of ice sheets and ice shelves in polar regions and sophisticated numerical methods that enable the solution of the physics in an efficient way.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

Evidence for ephemeral middle Eocene to early Oligocene Greenland glacial ice and pan-Arctic sea ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Tripati, Aradhna; Darby, Dennis

2018-03-12

Earth's modern climate is defined by the presence of ice at both poles, but that ice is now disappearing. Therefore understanding the origin and causes of polar ice stability is more critical than ever. Here we provide novel geochemical data that constrain past dynamics of glacial ice on Greenland and Arctic sea ice. Based on accurate source determinations of individual ice-rafted Fe-oxide grains, we find evidence for episodic glaciation of distinct source regions on Greenland as far-ranging as ~68°N and ~80°N synchronous with ice-rafting from circum-Arctic sources, beginning in the middle Eocene. Glacial intervals broadly coincide with reduced CO 2 , with a potential threshold for glacial ice stability near ~500 p.p.m.v. The middle Eocene represents the Cenozoic onset of a dynamic cryosphere, with ice in both hemispheres during transient glacials and substantial regional climate heterogeneity. A more stable cryosphere developed at the Eocene-Oligocene transition, and is now threatened by anthropogenic emissions.

The impact of atmospheric mineral aerosol deposition on the albedo of snow and sea ice: are snow and sea ice optical properties more important than mineral aerosol optical properties?

OpenAIRE

M. L. Lamare; J. Lee-Taylor; M. D. King

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the albedo of polar regions is crucial for understanding a range of climatic processes that have an impact on a global scale. Light absorbing impurities in atmospheric aerosols deposited on snow and sea ice by aeolian transport absorb solar radiation, reducing albedo. Here, the effects of five mineral aerosol deposits reducing the albedo of polar snow and sea ice are considered. Calculations employing a coupled atmospheric and snow/sea ice radiative-transfer model (TUV-snow) show...

What drove the methane cycle in the past - evidence from carbon isotopic data of methane enclosed in polar ice cores

OpenAIRE

Möller, Lars

2013-01-01

During the last glacial cycle, greenhouse gas concentrations fluctuated on decadal and longer timescales. Concentrations of methane, as measured in polar ice cores, show a close connection with Northern Hemisphere temperature variability, but the contribution of the various methane sources and sinks to changes in concentration is still a matter of debate. This thesis assess changes in methane cycling over the past 160,000 years by measurements of the carbon isotopic composition d13C of methan...

Microshear in the deep EDML ice core analyzed using cryogenic EBSD

Science.gov (United States)

Kuiper, Ernst-Jan; Pennock, Gill; Drury, Martyn; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Faria, Sérgio; Weikusat, Ilka

2017-04-01

layers of soft ice has serious implications for ice core dating, related paleoclimate studies and ice flow modelling with respect to ice sheet mass balance and sea level predictions. References: - Drury and Humphreys, 1988. Microstructural shear criteria associated with grain boundary sliding during ductile deformation. J. of Struc. Geol. 10, 1, 83-89. - Faria et al., 2006. Is Antarctica like a birthday cake?, Max Planck Institute of Mathematics and the Sciences - Weikusat et al., 2011. Cryogenic EBSD on ice: preserving a stable surface in a low pressure SEM. J. Micros. 242, 3, 295-310. (doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2818.2010.03471.x) - Weikusat et al., 2017. Physical analysis of an Antarctic ice core-towards an integration of micro- and macrodynamics of polar ice. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 375, 2015347. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2015.0347)

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Jeffrey A; van den Berg, Daphne; Ellers, Jacintha; Kampen, Remko; Crowther, Thomas W; Roessingh, Peter; Verheggen, Bart; Nuijten, Rascha J M; Post, Eric; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Stirling, Ian; Balgopal, Meena; Amstrup, Steven C; Mann, Michael E

2018-04-01

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

Demography and behavior of polar bears summering on land in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Peacock, Lily

2014-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124

A distributed atmosphere-sea ice-ocean observatory in the central Arctic Ocean: concept and first results

Science.gov (United States)

Hoppmann, Mario; Nicolaus, Marcel; Rabe, Benjamin; Wenzhöfer, Frank; Katlein, Christian; Scholz, Daniel; Valcic, Lovro

2017-04-01

To understand the current evolution of the Arctic Ocean towards a less extensive, thinner and younger sea ice cover is one of the biggest challenges in climate research. Especially the lack of simultaneous in-situ observations of sea ice, ocean and atmospheric properties leads to significant knowledge gaps in their complex interactions, and how the associated processes impact the polar marine ecosystem. Here we present a concept for the implementation of a long-term strategy to monitor the most essential climate- and ecosystem parameters in the central Arctic Ocean, year round and synchronously. The basis of this strategy is the development and enhancement of a number of innovative autonomous observational platforms, such as rugged weather stations, ice mass balance buoys, ice-tethered bio-optical buoys and upper ocean profilers. The deployment of those complementing platforms in a distributed network enables the simultaneous collection of physical and biogeochemical in-situ data on basin scales and year round, including the largely undersampled winter periods. A key advantage over other observatory systems is that the data is sent via satellite in near-real time, contributing to numerical weather predictions through the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and to the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). The first instruments were installed on ice floes in the Eurasian Basin in spring 2015 and 2016, yielding exceptional records of essential climate- and ecosystem-relevant parameters in one of the most inaccessible regions of this planet. Over the next 4 years, and including the observational periods of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP, 2017-2019) and the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC, 2020), the distributed observatory will be maintained by deployment of additional instruments in the central Arctic each year, benefitting from international logistical efforts.

Momentum Exchange Near Ice Keels in the Under Ice Ocean Boundary Layer

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Bleidorn, John C

2008-01-01

.... Understanding ice-ocean momentum exchange is important for accurate predictive ice modeling. Due to climate change, increased naval presence in the Arctic region is anticipated and ice models will become necessary for tactical and safety reasons...

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Wu, Xingren; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Lu, Jian; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kinter, James L., III

2015-01-01

There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability.

Comparison of measured and computed phase functions of individual tropospheric ice crystals

Science.gov (United States)

Stegmann, Patrick G.; Tropea, Cameron; Järvinen, Emma; Schnaiter, Martin

2016-07-01

Airplanes passing the incuda (lat. anvils) regions of tropical cumulonimbi-clouds are at risk of suffering an engine power-loss event and engine damage due to ice ingestion (Mason et al., 2006 [1]). Research in this field relies on optical measurement methods to characterize ice crystals; however the design and implementation of such methods presently suffer from the lack of reliable and efficient means of predicting the light scattering from ice crystals. The nascent discipline of direct measurement of phase functions of ice crystals in conjunction with particle imaging and forward modelling through geometrical optics derivative- and Transition matrix-codes for the first time allow us to obtain a deeper understanding of the optical properties of real tropospheric ice crystals. In this manuscript, a sample phase function obtained via the Particle Habit Imaging and Polar Scattering (PHIPS) probe during a measurement campaign in flight over Brazil will be compared to three different light scattering codes. This includes a newly developed first order geometrical optics code taking into account the influence of the Gaussian beam illumination used in the PHIPS device, as well as the reference ray tracing code of Macke and the T-matrix code of Kahnert.

Do pelagic grazers benefit from sea ice? Insights from the Antarctic sea ice proxy IPSO25

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Schmidt

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Sea ice affects primary production in polar regions in multiple ways. It can dampen water column productivity by reducing light or nutrient supply, provide a habitat for ice algae and condition the marginal ice zone (MIZ for phytoplankton blooms on its seasonal retreat. The relative importance of three different carbon sources (sea ice derived, sea ice conditioned, non-sea-ice associated for the polar food web is not well understood, partly due to the lack of methods that enable their unambiguous distinction. Here we analysed two highly branched isoprenoid (HBI biomarkers to trace sea-ice-derived and sea-ice-conditioned carbon in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba and relate their concentrations to the grazers' body reserves, growth and recruitment. During our sampling in January–February 2003, the proxy for sea ice diatoms (a di-unsaturated HBI termed IPSO25, δ13C  =  −12.5 ± 3.3 ‰ occurred in open waters of the western Scotia Sea, where seasonal ice retreat was slow. In suspended matter from surface waters, IPSO25 was present at a few stations close to the ice edge, but in krill the marker was widespread. Even at stations that had been ice-free for several weeks, IPSO25 was found in krill stomachs, suggesting that they gathered the ice-derived algae from below the upper mixed layer. Peak abundances of the proxy for MIZ diatoms (a tri-unsaturated HBI termed HBI III, δ13C  =  −42.2 ± 2.4 ‰ occurred in regions of fast sea ice retreat and persistent salinity-driven stratification in the eastern Scotia Sea. Krill sampled in the area defined by the ice edge bloom likewise contained high amounts of HBI III. As indicators for the grazer's performance we used the mass–length ratio, size of digestive gland and growth rate for krill, and recruitment for the biomass-dominant calanoid copepods Calanoides acutus and Calanus propinquus. These indices consistently point to blooms in the MIZ as an important feeding

Do pelagic grazers benefit from sea ice? Insights from the Antarctic sea ice proxy IPSO25

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Katrin; Brown, Thomas A.; Belt, Simon T.; Ireland, Louise C.; Taylor, Kyle W. R.; Thorpe, Sally E.; Ward, Peter; Atkinson, Angus

2018-04-01

Sea ice affects primary production in polar regions in multiple ways. It can dampen water column productivity by reducing light or nutrient supply, provide a habitat for ice algae and condition the marginal ice zone (MIZ) for phytoplankton blooms on its seasonal retreat. The relative importance of three different carbon sources (sea ice derived, sea ice conditioned, non-sea-ice associated) for the polar food web is not well understood, partly due to the lack of methods that enable their unambiguous distinction. Here we analysed two highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) biomarkers to trace sea-ice-derived and sea-ice-conditioned carbon in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and relate their concentrations to the grazers' body reserves, growth and recruitment. During our sampling in January-February 2003, the proxy for sea ice diatoms (a di-unsaturated HBI termed IPSO25, δ13C = -12.5 ± 3.3 ‰) occurred in open waters of the western Scotia Sea, where seasonal ice retreat was slow. In suspended matter from surface waters, IPSO25 was present at a few stations close to the ice edge, but in krill the marker was widespread. Even at stations that had been ice-free for several weeks, IPSO25 was found in krill stomachs, suggesting that they gathered the ice-derived algae from below the upper mixed layer. Peak abundances of the proxy for MIZ diatoms (a tri-unsaturated HBI termed HBI III, δ13C = -42.2 ± 2.4 ‰) occurred in regions of fast sea ice retreat and persistent salinity-driven stratification in the eastern Scotia Sea. Krill sampled in the area defined by the ice edge bloom likewise contained high amounts of HBI III. As indicators for the grazer's performance we used the mass-length ratio, size of digestive gland and growth rate for krill, and recruitment for the biomass-dominant calanoid copepods Calanoides acutus and Calanus propinquus. These indices consistently point to blooms in the MIZ as an important feeding ground for pelagic grazers. Even though ice

Leveraging scientific credibility about Arctic sea ice trends in a polarized political environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Hardy, Bruce W

2014-09-16

This work argues that, in a polarized environment, scientists can minimize the likelihood that the audience's biased processing will lead to rejection of their message if they not only eschew advocacy but also, convey that they are sharers of knowledge faithful to science's way of knowing and respectful of the audience's intelligence; the sources on which they rely are well-regarded by both conservatives and liberals; and the message explains how the scientist arrived at the offered conclusion, is conveyed in a visual form that involves the audience in drawing its own conclusions, and capsulizes key inferences in an illustrative analogy. A pilot experiment raises the possibility that such a leveraging-involving-visualizing-analogizing message structure can increase acceptance of the scientific claims about the downward cross-decade trend in Arctic sea ice extent and elicit inferences consistent with the scientific consensus on climate change among conservatives exposed to misleadingly selective data in a partisan news source.

Dependence of extinction cross-section on incident polarization state and particle orientation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Ping; Wendisch, Manfred; Bi Lei; Kattawar, George; Mishchenko, Michael; Hu, Yongxiang

2011-01-01

This note reports on the effects of the polarization state of an incident quasi-monochromatic parallel beam of radiation and the orientation of a hexagonal ice particle with respect to the incident direction on the extinction process. When the incident beam is aligned with the six-fold rotational symmetry axis, the extinction is independent of the polarization state of the incident light. For other orientations, the extinction cross-section for linearly polarized light can be either larger or smaller than its counterpart for an unpolarized incident beam. Therefore, the attenuation of a quasi-monochromatic radiation beam by an ice cloud depends on the polarization state of the beam if ice crystals within the cloud are not randomly oriented. Furthermore, a case study of the extinction of light by a quartz particle is also presented to illustrate the dependence of the extinction cross-section on the polarization state of the incident light.

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Science.gov (United States)

Steven C. Amstrup; Hal Caswell; Eric DeWeaver; Ian Stirling; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; Christine M. Hunter

2009-01-01

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior...

Spectropolarimetry of the 3μm ice band in Elias 16 (Taurus Dark Cloud)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hough, J.H.; Sato, Shuji; Tamura, Motohide

1988-01-01

Polarization data between 1.2 and 3.8 μm, including spectro-polarimetry in the 3-μm ice feature, are presented for the highly reddened field star Elias 16 in the Taurus Dark Cloud. The polarization is observed to increase with optical depth in the ice feature in a manner similar to that found for the BN object, that is, consistent with dichroic absorption by aligned grains. The polarization feature can be well modelled assuming grains composed of ammonia-water ices, with the ratio of H 2 O:NH 3 greater than 3:1. The continuum polarization can be well fitted over most of the observed wavelength range assuming a mix of silicate and graphite grains with size ∼ 0.13μm. (author)

Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

In this study, we assess systematically the impact of different initialisation procedures on the predictability of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean. These initialisation strategies are based on three data assimilation methods: the nudging, the particle filter with sequential importance resampling and the nudging proposal particle filter. An Earth system model of intermediate complexity is used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales is estimated through two aspects: the spread of the hindcast ensemble, indicating the uncertainty of the ensemble, and the correlation between the ensemble mean and the pseudo-observations, used to assess the accuracy of the prediction. Our results show that at decadal timescales more sophisticated data assimilation methods as well as denser pseudo-observations used to initialise the hindcasts decrease the spread of the ensemble. However, our experiments did not clearly demonstrate that one of the initialisation methods systematically provides with a more accurate prediction of the sea ice in the Southern Ocean than the others. Overall, the predictability at interannual timescales is limited to 3 years ahead at most. At multi-decadal timescales, the trends in sea ice extent computed over the time period just after the initialisation are clearly better correlated between the hindcasts and the pseudo-observations if the initialisation takes into account the pseudo-observations. The correlation reaches values larger than 0.5 in winter. This high correlation has likely its origin in the slow evolution of the ocean ensured by its strong thermal inertia, showing the importance of the quality of the initialisation below the sea ice.

Sentinel-1 provides ice drift observations for Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toudal Pedersen, Leif; Saldo, Roberto

are matched every month in the processing system.The quality of the ice drift vectors are routinely verified against GPS locations of drift buoys and the RMS difference between the baseline product available through the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service data portal and GPS drifters is ~500......Sea ice drift information with an accuracy that allows also ice deformation (divergence, shear, vorticity) to be derived is being operationally generated in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS).The method is based on 2-dimensional digital cross correlation where subsections......View project in 2007 when large volumes of ENVISAT ASAR images of the Polar regions became available during the International Polar Year. A dataset of daily ice drift vectors of the Polar Regions (North and South) is now available covering the time period from 2007 to the present time.In 2009 the processing...

Sea-ice thickness from airborne laser altimetry over the Arctic Ocean north of Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Forsberg, René

2002-01-01

We present a new method to measure ice thickness of polar sea-ice freeboard heights, using airborne laser altimetry combined with a precise geoid model, giving estimates of thickness of ice through isostatic equilibrium assumptions. In the paper we analyze a number of flights from the Polar Sea off...... Northern Greenland, and estimate accuracies of the estimated freeboard values to be at a 13 cm level, corresponding to about 1 m in absolute thickness....

Semiempirical self-consistent polarization description of bulk water, the liquid-vapor interface, and cubic ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Murdachaew, Garold; Mundy, Christopher J; Schenter, Gregory K; Laino, Teodoro; Hutter, Jürg

2011-06-16

We have applied an efficient electronic structure approach, the semiempirical self-consistent polarization neglect of diatomic differential overlap (SCP-NDDO) method, previously parametrized to reproduce properties of water clusters by Chang, Schenter, and Garrett [ J. Chem. Phys. 2008 , 128 , 164111 ] and now implemented in the CP2K package, to model ambient liquid water at 300 K (both the bulk and the liquid-vapor interface) and cubic ice at 15 and 250 K. The SCP-NDDO potential retains its transferability and good performance across the full range of conditions encountered in the clusters and the bulk phases of water. In particular, we obtain good results for the density, radial distribution functions, enthalpy of vaporization, self-diffusion coefficient, molecular dipole moment distribution, and hydrogen bond populations, in comparison to experimental measurements. © 2011 American Chemical Society

SeaWinds - Oceans, Land, Polar Regions

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite makes global radar measurements -- day and night, in clear sky and through clouds. The radar data over the oceans provide scientists and weather forecasters with information on surface wind speed and direction. Scientists also use the radar measurements directly to learn about changes in vegetation and ice extent over land and polar regions.This false-color image is based entirely on SeaWinds measurements obtained over oceans, land, and polar regions. Over the ocean, colors indicate wind speed with orange as the fastest wind speeds and blue as the slowest. White streamlines indicate the wind direction. The ocean winds in this image were measured by SeaWinds on September 20, 1999. The large storm in the Atlantic off the coast of Florida is Hurricane Gert. Tropical storm Harvey is evident as a high wind region in the Gulf of Mexico, while farther west in the Pacific is tropical storm Hilary. An extensive storm is also present in the South Atlantic Ocean near Antarctica.The land image was made from four days of SeaWinds data with the aid of a resolution enhancement algorithm developed by Dr. David Long at Brigham Young University. The lightest green areas correspond to the highest radar backscatter. Note the bright Amazon and Congo rainforests compared to the dark Sahara desert. The Amazon River is visible as a dark line running horizontally though the bright South American rain forest. Cities appear as bright spots on the images, especially in the U.S. and Europe.The image of Greenland and the north polar ice cap was generated from data acquired by SeaWinds on a single day. In the polar region portion of the image, white corresponds to the largest radar return, while purple is the lowest. The variations in color in Greenland and the polar ice cap reveal information about the ice and snow conditions present.NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is a long-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

CryoSat Mission over Polar Region: Data quality status and product evolutions

Science.gov (United States)

Bouffard, J.; Parrinello, T.; Féménias, P.; Fornari, M.; Scagliola, M.; Baker, S.; Brockley, D.; Mannan, R.; Hall, A.; Webb, E.; Garcia-Mondéjar, A.; Roca, M.; Mantovani, P. L.

2015-12-01

Over the past 20 years, satellite radar altimetry has shown its ability to revolutionize our understanding of the ocean and climate. These advances were mainly limited to ice-free regions, leaving aside large portions of Polar Regions. Launched in 2010, the polar-orbiting CryoSat Satellite was designed to measure the changes in the thickness of polar sea ice and the elevation of the ice sheets and mountain glaciers. To reach this goal, the CryoSat products have to meet the highest performance, through constant improvements of the associated Instrument Processing Facility. Since April 2015, the CryoSat ice products are generated with the Baseline C; which represents a major processor upgrade. Several improvements have been implemented belong this new Baseline, such as SAR retracker optimized for Freeboard retrieval and a coarse slant correction, which is applied directly on the stack data in conjunction with the window delay alignment. The resulting waveforms show more power and the trailing edge is modified, leading to improved L2 geophysical parameters. This paper provides an overview of the CryoSat data characteristics, assessment and exploitation over Polar Regions. In this respect, new science-oriented diagnostics have been implemented to thoroughly understand the signatures within the altimeter signals over sea-ice and land ice areas, to validate the data and therefore propose potential way of improvements for next CryoSat processing Baselines.

Aerodynamics and thermal physics of helicopter ice accretion

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Yiqiang

Ice accretion on aircraft introduces significant loss in airfoil performance. Reduced lift-to- drag ratio reduces the vehicle capability to maintain altitude and also limits its maneuverability. Current ice accretion performance degradation modeling approaches are calibrated only to a limited envelope of liquid water content, impact velocity, temperature, and water droplet size; consequently inaccurate aerodynamic performance degradations are estimated. The reduced ice accretion prediction capabilities in the glaze ice regime are primarily due to a lack of knowledge of surface roughness induced by ice accretion. A comprehensive understanding of the ice roughness effects on airfoil heat transfer, ice accretion shapes, and ultimately aerodynamics performance is critical for the design of ice protection systems. Surface roughness effects on both heat transfer and aerodynamic performance degradation on airfoils have been experimentally evaluated. Novel techniques, such as ice molding and casting methods and transient heat transfer measurement using non-intrusive thermal imaging methods, were developed at the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) facility at Penn State. A novel heat transfer scaling method specifically for turbulent flow regime was also conceived. A heat transfer scaling parameter, labeled as Coefficient of Stanton and Reynolds Number (CSR = Stx/Rex --0.2), has been validated against reference data found in the literature for rough flat plates with Reynolds number (Re) up to 1x107, for rough cylinders with Re ranging from 3x104 to 4x106, and for turbine blades with Re from 7.5x105 to 7x106. This is the first time that the effect of Reynolds number is shown to be successfully eliminated on heat transfer magnitudes measured on rough surfaces. Analytical models for ice roughness distribution, heat transfer prediction, and aerodynamics performance degradation due to ice accretion have also been developed. The ice roughness prediction model was

The impact of atmospheric mineral aerosol deposition on the albedo of snow & sea ice: are snow and sea ice optical properties more important than mineral aerosol optical properties?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. L. Lamare

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of the albedo of polar regions is crucial for understanding a range of climatic processes that have an impact on a global scale. Light-absorbing impurities in atmospheric aerosols deposited on snow and sea ice by aeolian transport absorb solar radiation, reducing albedo. Here, the effects of five mineral aerosol deposits reducing the albedo of polar snow and sea ice are considered. Calculations employing a coupled atmospheric and snow/sea ice radiative-transfer model (TUV-snow show that the effects of mineral aerosol deposits are strongly dependent on the snow or sea ice type rather than the differences between the aerosol optical characteristics. The change in albedo between five different mineral aerosol deposits with refractive indices varying by a factor of 2 reaches a maximum of 0.0788, whereas the difference between cold polar snow and melting sea ice is 0.8893 for the same mineral loading. Surprisingly, the thickness of a surface layer of snow or sea ice loaded with the same mass ratio of mineral dust has little effect on albedo. On the contrary, the surface albedo of two snowpacks of equal depth, containing the same mineral aerosol mass ratio, is similar, whether the loading is uniformly distributed or concentrated in multiple layers, regardless of their position or spacing. The impact of mineral aerosol deposits is much larger on melting sea ice than on other types of snow and sea ice. Therefore, the higher input of shortwave radiation during the summer melt cycle associated with melting sea ice accelerates the melt process.

Creating collaboration opportunities for marine research across the Arctic: The SEARCH-ACCESS partnership and an emerging sea ice prediction research network

Science.gov (United States)

Eicken, H.; Bitz, C. M.; Gascard, J.; Kaminski, T.; Karcher, M. J.; Kauker, F.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J. C.; Wiggins, H. V.

2013-12-01

Rapid Arctic environmental and socio-economic change presents major challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and the private sector. The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover, in particular, are in the midst of transformative change, ranging from declines in sea-ice thickness and summer ice extent to threats to coastal communities and increases in maritime traffic and offshore resource development. The US interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS) project are addressing both scientific research needs and stakeholder information priorities to improve understanding and responses to Arctic change. Capacity building, coordination and integration of activities at the international level and across sectors and stakeholder groups are major challenges that have to be met. ACCESS and SEARCH build on long-standing collaborations with a focus on environmental change in the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system and the most pressing research needs to inform marine policy, resource management and threats to Arctic coastal communities. To illustrate the approach, key results and major conclusions from this international coordination and collaboration effort, we focus on a nascent sea-ice prediction research network. This activity builds on the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook that was initiated by SEARCH and the European DAMOCLES project (a precursor to ACCESS) and has now grown into an international community of practice that synthesizes, evaluates and discusses sea-ice predictions on seasonal to interannual scales. Key goals of the effort which is now entering into a new phase include the comparative evaluation of different prediction approaches, including the combination of different techniques, the compilation of reference datasets and model output, guidance on the design and implementation of observing system efforts to improve predictions and information transfer into private

A network model for electrical transport in sea ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, J.; Golden, K.M.; Gully, A.; Sampson, C.

2010-01-01

Monitoring the thickness of sea ice is an important tool in assessing the impact of global warming on Earth's polar regions, and most methods of measuring ice thickness depend on detailed knowledge of its electrical properties. We develop a network model for the electrical conductivity of sea ice, which incorporates statistical measurements of the brine microstructure. The numerical simulations are in close agreement with direct measurements we made in Antarctica on the vertical conductivity of first year sea ice.

Numerical simulation of flow and melting characteristics of seawater-ice crystals two-phase flow in inlet straight pipe of shell and tube heat exchanger of polar ship

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Li; Huang, Chang-Xu; Huang, Zhen-Fei; Sun, Qiang; Li, Jie

2018-05-01

The ice crystal particles are easy to enter into the seawater cooling system of polar ship together with seawater when it sails in the Arctic. They are easy to accumulate in the pipeline, causing serious blockage of the cooling pipe. In this study, the flow and melting characteristics of ice particles-seawater two-phase flow in inlet straight pipe of shell-and-tube heat exchanger were numerically simulated by using Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model coupled with the interphase heat and mass transfer model. The influences of inlet ice packing factor, ice crystal particle diameter, and inlet velocity on the distribution and melting characteristics of ice crystals were investigated. The degree of asymmetry of the distribution of ice crystals in the cross section decreases gradually when the IPF changes from 5 to 15%. The volume fractions of ice crystals near the top of the outlet cross section are 19.59, 19.51, and 22.24% respectively for ice packing factor of 5, 10 and 15%. When the particle diameter is 0.5 mm, the ice crystals are gradually stratified during the flow process. With particle diameters of 1.0 and 2.0 mm, the region with the highest volume fraction of ice crystals is a small circle and the contours in the cloud map are compact. The greater the inlet flow velocity, the less stratified the ice crystals and the more obvious the turbulence on the outlet cross section. The average volume fraction of ice crystals along the flow direction is firstly rapidly reduced and then stabilized after 300 mm.

The Energetic Value of Land-Based Foods in Western Hudson Bay and Their Potential to Alleviate Energy Deficits of Starving Adult Male Polar Bears.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda J Gormezano

Full Text Available Climate change is predicted to expand the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay and when it grows to 180 days, 28-48% of adult male polar bears are projected to starve unless nutritional deficits can be offset by foods consumed on land. We updated a dynamic energy budget model developed by Molnar et al. to allow influx of additional energy from novel terrestrial foods (lesser snow geese, eggs, caribou that polar bears currently consume as part of a mixed diet while on land. We calculated the units of each prey, alone and in combination, needed to alleviate these lethal energy deficits under conditions of resting or limited movement (2 km d-1 prior to starvation. We further considered the total energy available from each sex and age class of each animal prey over the period they would overlap land-bound polar bears and calculated the maximum number of starving adult males that could be sustained on each food during the ice-free season. Our results suggest that the net energy from land-based food, after subtracting costs of limited movement to obtain it, could eliminate all projected nutritional deficits of starving adult male polar bears and likely other demographic groups as well. The hunting tactics employed, success rates as well as behavior and abundance of each prey will determine the realized energetic values for individual polar bears. Although climate change may cause a phenological mismatch between polar bears and their historical ice-based prey, it may simultaneously yield a new match with certain land-based foods. If polar bears can transition their foraging behavior to effectively exploit these resources, predictions for starvation-related mortality may be overestimated for western Hudson Bay. We also discuss potential complications with stable-carbon isotope studies to evaluate utilization of land-based foods by polar bears including metabolic effects of capture-related stress and consuming a mixed diet.

The Energetic Value of Land-Based Foods in Western Hudson Bay and Their Potential to Alleviate Energy Deficits of Starving Adult Male Polar Bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Gormezano, Linda J; Rockwell, Robert F

2015-01-01

Climate change is predicted to expand the ice-free season in western Hudson Bay and when it grows to 180 days, 28-48% of adult male polar bears are projected to starve unless nutritional deficits can be offset by foods consumed on land. We updated a dynamic energy budget model developed by Molnar et al. to allow influx of additional energy from novel terrestrial foods (lesser snow geese, eggs, caribou) that polar bears currently consume as part of a mixed diet while on land. We calculated the units of each prey, alone and in combination, needed to alleviate these lethal energy deficits under conditions of resting or limited movement (2 km d-1) prior to starvation. We further considered the total energy available from each sex and age class of each animal prey over the period they would overlap land-bound polar bears and calculated the maximum number of starving adult males that could be sustained on each food during the ice-free season. Our results suggest that the net energy from land-based food, after subtracting costs of limited movement to obtain it, could eliminate all projected nutritional deficits of starving adult male polar bears and likely other demographic groups as well. The hunting tactics employed, success rates as well as behavior and abundance of each prey will determine the realized energetic values for individual polar bears. Although climate change may cause a phenological mismatch between polar bears and their historical ice-based prey, it may simultaneously yield a new match with certain land-based foods. If polar bears can transition their foraging behavior to effectively exploit these resources, predictions for starvation-related mortality may be overestimated for western Hudson Bay. We also discuss potential complications with stable-carbon isotope studies to evaluate utilization of land-based foods by polar bears including metabolic effects of capture-related stress and consuming a mixed diet.

Satellite-derived ice data sets no. 2: Arctic monthly average microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations, 1973-1976

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, C. L.; Comiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

1987-01-01

A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

Validation of the Suomi NPP VIIRS Ice Surface Temperature Environmental Data Record

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yinghui Liu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of the surface temperature is critical to understanding and forecasting Arctic climate change; as surface temperature integrates changes in the surface energy budget. The sea-ice surface temperature (IST has been measured with optical and thermal infrared sensors for many years. With the IST Environmental Data Record (EDR available from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP and future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS satellites; we can continue to monitor and investigate Arctic climate change. This work examines the quality of the VIIRS IST EDR. Validation is performed through comparisons with multiple datasets; including NASA IceBridge measurements; air temperature from Arctic drifting ice buoys; Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS IST; MODIS IST simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO; and surface air temperature from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Results show biases of −0.34; −0.12; 0.16; −3.20; and −3.41 K compared to an aircraft-mounted downward-looking pyrometer; MODIS; MODIS SNO; drifting buoy; and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis; respectively; root-mean-square errors of 0.98; 1.02; 0.95; 4.89; and 6.94 K; and root-mean-square errors with the bias removed of 0.92; 1.01; 0.94; 3.70; and 6.04 K. Based on the IceBridge and MODIS results; the VIIRS IST uncertainty (RMSE meets or exceeds the JPSS system requirement of 1.0 K. The product can therefore be considered useful for meteorological and climatological applications.

A New Remotely Operated Sensor Platform for Interdisciplinary Observations under Sea Ice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Katlein

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Observation of the climate and ecosystem of ice covered polar seas is a timely task for the scientific community. The goal is to assess the drastic and imminent changes of the polar sea ice cover induced by climate change. Retreating and thinning sea ice affects the planets energy budget, atmospheric, and oceanic circulation patterns as well as the ecosystem associated with this unique habitat. To increase the observational capabilities of sea ice scientists, we equipped a remotely operated vehicle (ROV as sensor platform for interdisciplinary research at the ice water interface. Here, we present the technical details and operation scheme of the new vehicle and provide data examples from a first campaign in the Arctic in autumn 2016 to demonstrate the vehicle's capabilities. The vehicle is designed for efficient operations in the harsh polar conditions. Redundant modular design allows operation by three scientists simultaneously operating a wide variety of sensors. Sensors from physical, chemical, and biological oceanography are combined with optical and acoustic sea ice sensors to provide a comprehensive picture of the underside of sea ice. The sensor suite provides comprehensive capabilities and can be further extended as additional ports for power and communication are available. The vehicle provides full six degrees of freedom in navigation, enabling intervention, and manipulation skills despite its simple one function manipulator arm.

Polar Stratigraphy

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

These three images were taken on three different orbits over the north polar cap in April 1999. Each shows a different part of the same ice-free trough. The left and right images are separated by a distance of more than 100 kilometers (62 miles). Note the similar layers in each image.

The surface of the ice-age Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

1976-03-19

In the Northern Hemisphere the 18,000 B.P. world differed strikingly from the present in the huge land-based ice sheets, reaching approximately 3 km in thickness, and in a dramatic increase in the extent of pack ice and marine-based ice sheets. In the Southern Hemisphere the most striking contrast was the greater extent of sea ice. On land, grasslands, steppes, and deserts spread at the expense of forests. This change in vegetation, together with extensive areas of permanent ice and sandy outwash plains, caused an increase in global surface albedo over modern values. Sea level was lower by at least 85 m. The 18,000 B.P. oceans were characterized by: (i) marked steepening of thermal gradients along polar frontal systems, particularly in the North Atlantic and Antarctic; (ii) an equatorward displacement of polar frontal systems; (iii) general cooling of most surface waters, with a global average of -2.3 degrees C; (iv) increased cooling and up-welling along equatorial divergences in the Pacific and Atlantic; (v) low temperatures extending equatorward along the western coast of Africa, Australia, and South America, indicating increased upwelling and advection of cool waters; and (vi) nearly stable positions and temperatures of the central gyres in the subtropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans.

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Gagliardini

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity of Holocene life forms in fossil glacier ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willerslev, E.; Hansen, Anders J.; Christensen, B.

1999-01-01

Studies of biotic remains of polar ice caps have been limited to morphological identification of plant pollen and spores. By using sensitive molecular techniques, we now demonstrate a much greater range of detectable organisms; from 2000- and 4000-year-old ice-core samples, we obtained...

First Principles Study of Electron Tunneling through Ice

KAUST Repository

Cucinotta, Clotilde S.; Rungger, Ivan; Sanvito, Stefano

2012-01-01

With the aim of understanding electrochemical scanning tunnel microscopy experiments in an aqueous environment, we investigate electron transport through ice in the coherent limit. This is done by using the nonequilibrium Greens functions method, implemented within density functional theory, in the self-interaction corrected local density approximation. In particular, we explore different ice structures and different Au electrode surface orientations. By comparing the decay coefficient for different thicknesses to the ice complex band structure, we find that the electron transport occurs via tunneling with almost one-dimensional character. The slow decay of the current with the ice thickness is largely due to the small effective mass of the conduction electrons. Furthermore, we find that the calculated tunneling decay coefficients at the Fermi energy are not sensitive to the structural details of the junctions and are at the upper end of the experimental range for liquid water. This suggests that linear response transport measurements are not capable of distinguishing between different ordered ice structures. However, we also demonstrate that a finite bias measurement may be capable of sorting polar from nonpolar interfaces due to the asymmetry of the current-voltage curves for polar interfaces. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

First Principles Study of Electron Tunneling through Ice

KAUST Repository

Cucinotta, Clotilde S.

2012-10-25

With the aim of understanding electrochemical scanning tunnel microscopy experiments in an aqueous environment, we investigate electron transport through ice in the coherent limit. This is done by using the nonequilibrium Greens functions method, implemented within density functional theory, in the self-interaction corrected local density approximation. In particular, we explore different ice structures and different Au electrode surface orientations. By comparing the decay coefficient for different thicknesses to the ice complex band structure, we find that the electron transport occurs via tunneling with almost one-dimensional character. The slow decay of the current with the ice thickness is largely due to the small effective mass of the conduction electrons. Furthermore, we find that the calculated tunneling decay coefficients at the Fermi energy are not sensitive to the structural details of the junctions and are at the upper end of the experimental range for liquid water. This suggests that linear response transport measurements are not capable of distinguishing between different ordered ice structures. However, we also demonstrate that a finite bias measurement may be capable of sorting polar from nonpolar interfaces due to the asymmetry of the current-voltage curves for polar interfaces. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

Ice, Ice, Baby: A Program for Sustained, Classroom-Based K-8 Teacher Professional Development

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, C.

2009-12-01

Ice, Ice, Baby is a K-8 science program created by the education team at the Center for the Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS), an NSF-funded science and technology center headquartered at the University of Kansas. The twenty-four hands-on activities, which constitute the Ice, Ice, Baby curriculum, were developed to help students understand the role of polar ice sheets in sea level rise. These activities, presented in classrooms by CReSIS' Educational Outreach Coordinator, demonstrate many of the scientific properties of ice, including displacement and density. Student journals are utilized with each lesson as a strategy for improving students' science process skills. Journals also help the instructor identify misconceptions, assess comprehension, and provide students with a year-long science reference log. Pre- and post- assessments are given to both teachers and students before and after the program, providing data for evaluation and improvement of the Ice, Ice, Baby program. While students are actively engaged in hands-on learning about the unusual topics of ice sheets, glaciers, icebergs and sea ice, the CReSIS' Educational Coordinator is able to model best practices in science education, such as questioning and inquiry-based methods of instruction. In this way, the Ice, Ice, Baby program also serves as ongoing, in-class, professional development for teachers. Teachers are also provided supplemental activities to do with their classes between CReSIS' visits to encourage additional science lessons, reinforce concepts taught in the Ice, Ice, Baby program, and to foster teachers' progression toward more reform-based science instruction.

Winter snow conditions on Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition

Science.gov (United States)

Merkouriadi, Ioanna; Gallet, Jean-Charles; Graham, Robert M.; Liston, Glen E.; Polashenski, Chris; Rösel, Anja; Gerland, Sebastian

2017-10-01

Snow is a crucial component of the Arctic sea ice system. Its thickness and thermal properties control heat conduction and radiative fluxes across the ocean, ice, and atmosphere interfaces. Hence, observations of the evolution of snow depth, density, thermal conductivity, and stratigraphy are crucial for the development of detailed snow numerical models predicting energy transfer through the snow pack. Snow depth is also a major uncertainty in predicting ice thickness using remote sensing algorithms. Here we examine the winter spatial and temporal evolution of snow physical properties on first-year (FYI) and second-year ice (SYI) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition (January to March 2015). During N-ICE2015, the snow pack consisted of faceted grains (47%), depth hoar (28%), and wind slab (13%), indicating very different snow stratigraphy compared to what was observed in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean during the SHEBA campaign (1997-1998). Average snow bulk density was 345 kg m-3 and it varied with ice type. Snow depth was 41 ± 19 cm in January and 56 ± 17 cm in February, which is significantly greater than earlier suggestions for this region. The snow water equivalent was 14.5 ± 5.3 cm over first-year ice and 19 ± 5.4 cm over second-year ice.

A Quantitative Proxy for Sea-Ice Based on Diatoms: A Cautionary Tale.

Science.gov (United States)

Nesterovich, A.; Caissie, B.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in the Polar Regions supports unique and productive ecosystems, but the current decline in the Arctic sea ice extent prompts questions about previous sea ice declines and the response of ice related ecosystems. Since satellite data only extend back to 1978, the study of sea ice before this time requires a proxy. Being one of the most productive, diatom-dominated regions in the world and having a wide range of sea ice concentrations, the Bering and Chukchi seas are a perfect place to find a relationship between the presence of sea ice and diatom community composition. The aim of this work is to develop a diatom-based proxy for the sea ice extent. A total of 473 species have been identified in 104 sediment samples, most of which were collected on board the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy ice breaker (2006, 2007) and the Norseman II (2008). The study also included some of the archived diatom smear slides made from sediments collected in 1969. The assemblages were compared to satellite-derived sea ice extent data averaged over the 10 years preceding the sampling. Previous studies in the Arctic and Antarctic regions demonstrated that the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is one of the best choices for proxy construction. It has the advantage of using only several species instead of the whole assemblage, thus including only sea ice-associated species and minimizing the noise created by species responding to other environmental factors. Our GAM on three species (Connia compita, Fragilariopsis reginae-jahniae, and Neodenticula seminae) has low standard deviation, high level of explained variation, and holds under the ten-fold cross-validation; the standard residual analysis is acceptable. However, a spatial residual analysis revealed that the model consistently over predicts in the Chukchi Sea and under predicts in the Bering Sea. Including a spatial model into the GAM didn't improve the situation. This has led us to test other methods, including a non-parametric model

Arctic tides from GPS on sea ice

OpenAIRE

Kildegaard Rose, Stine; Skourup, Henriette; Forsberg, René

2012-01-01

The presence of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean plays a significant role in the Arctic climate. Sea ice dampens the ocean tide amplitude with the result that global tidal models which use only astronomical data perform less accurately in the polar regions. This study presents a kinematic processing of Global Positioning System (GPS) buoys placed on sea-ice at five different sites north of Greenland for the study of sea level height and tidal analysis to improve tidal models in the Central Arctic....

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R.; Geruo, A.; Barletta, Valentia R.; Bentley, Mike J.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H.; Bromwich, David H.; Forsberg, Rene; Galin, Natalia;

NON-RACEMIC AMINO ACID PRODUCTION BY ULTRAVIOLET IRRADIATION OF ACHIRAL INTERSTELLAR ICE ANALOGS WITH CIRCULARLY POLARIZED LIGHT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Marcellus, Pierre; Nuevo, Michel; Danger, Gregoire; Deboffle, Dominique; Le Sergeant d'Hendecourt, Louis; Meinert, Cornelia; Filippi, Jean-Jacques; Meierhenrich, Uwe J.; Nahon, Laurent

2011-01-01

The delivery of organic matter to the primitive Earth via comets and meteorites has long been hypothesized to be an important source for prebiotic compounds such as amino acids or their chemical precursors that contributed to the development of prebiotic chemistry leading, on Earth, to the emergence of life. Photochemistry of inter/circumstellar ices around protostellar objects is a potential process leading to complex organic species, although difficult to establish from limited infrared observations only. Here we report the first abiotic cosmic ice simulation experiments that produce species with enantiomeric excesses (e.e.'s). Circularly polarized ultraviolet light (UV-CPL) from a synchrotron source induces asymmetric photochemistry on initially achiral inter/circumstellar ice analogs. Enantioselective multidimensional gas chromatography measurements show significant e.e.'s of up to 1.34% for ( 13 C)-alanine, for which the signs and absolute values are related to the helicity and number of CPL photons per deposited molecule. This result, directly comparable with some L excesses measured in meteorites, supports a scenario in which exogenous delivery of organics displaying a slight L excess, produced in an extraterrestrial environment by an asymmetric astrophysical process, is at the origin of biomolecular asymmetry on Earth. As a consequence, a fraction of the meteoritic organic material consisting of non-racemic compounds may well have been formed outside the solar system. Finally, following this hypothesis, we support the idea that the protosolar nebula has indeed been formed in a region of massive star formation, regions where UV-CPL of the same helicity is actually observed over large spatial areas.

The Relevance of Grain Dissection for Grain Size Reduction in Polar Ice : Insight from Numerical Models and Ice Core Microstructure Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steinbach, F.; Kuiper, E.N.; Eichler, J.; Bons, P. D.; Drury, M. R.; Griera, A.; Pennock, G.M.; Weikusat, I.

2017-01-01

The flow of ice depends on the properties of the aggregate of individual ice crystals, such as grain size or lattice orientation distributions. Therefore, an understanding of the processes controlling ice micro-dynamics is needed to ultimately develop a physically based macroscopic ice flow law. We

Parameterisation of sea and lake ice in numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitrii Mironov

2012-04-01

Full Text Available A bulk thermodynamic (no rheology sea-ice parameterisation scheme for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented. The scheme is based on a self-similar parametric representation (assumed shape of the evolving temperature profile within the ice and on the integral heat budget of the ice slab. The scheme carries ordinary differential equations (in time for the ice surface temperature and the ice thickness. The proposed sea-ice scheme is implemented into the NWP models GME (global and COSMO (limited-area of the German Weather Service. In the present operational configuration, the horizontal distribution of the sea ice is governed by the data assimilation scheme, no fractional ice cover within the GME/COSMO grid box is considered, and the effect of snow above the ice is accounted for through an empirical temperature dependence of the ice surface albedo with respect to solar radiation. The lake ice is treated similarly to the sea ice, except that freeze-up and break-up of lakes occurs freely, independent of the data assimilation. The sea and lake ice schemes (the latter is a part of the fresh-water lake parameterisation scheme FLake show a satisfactory performance in GME and COSMO. The ice characteristics are not overly sensitive to the details of the treatment of heat transfer through the ice layer. This justifies the use of a simplified but computationally efficient bulk approach to model the ice thermodynamics in NWP, where the ice surface temperature is a major concern whereas details of the temperature distribution within the ice are of secondary importance. In contrast to the details of the heat transfer through the ice, the cloud cover is of decisive importance for the ice temperature as it controls the radiation energy budget at the ice surface. This is particularly true for winter, when the long-wave radiation dominates the surface energy budget. During summer, the surface energy budget is also sensitive to the grid-box mean ice

Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

Science.gov (United States)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

2013-12-01

Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and

Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Melchior van Wessem, Jan; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van Meijgaard, Erik; Amory, Charles; Birnbaum, Gerit; Jakobs, Constantijn L.; Krüger, Konstantin; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Medley, Brooke; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van Tricht, Kristof; Trusel, Luke D.; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; Wouters, Bert; Wuite, Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-04-01

We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ˜ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

Evaluation and Improvement of Polar WRF simulations using the observed atmospheric profiles in the Arctic seasonal ice zone

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Z.; Schweiger, A. J. B.

2016-12-01

We use the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate atmospheric conditions during the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey (SIZRS) over the Beaufort Sea in the summer since 2013. With the 119 SIZRS dropsondes in the18 cross sections along the 150W and 140W longitude lines, we evaluate the performance of WRF simulations and two forcing data sets, the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis, and explore the improvement of the Polar WRF performance when the dropsonde data are assimilated using observation nudging. Polar WRF, ERA-Interim, and GFS can reproduce the general features of the observed mean atmospheric profiles, such as low-level temperature inversion, low-level jet (LLJ) and specific humidity inversion. The Polar WRF significantly improves the mean LLJ, with a lower and stronger jet and a larger turning angle than the forcing, which is likely related to the lower values of the boundary layer diffusion in WRF than in the global models such as ECMWF and GFS. The Polar WRF simulated relative humidity closely resembles the forcing datasets while having large biases compared to observations. This suggests that the performance of Polar WRF and its forecasts in this region are limited by the quality of the forcing dataset and that the assimilation of more and better-calibrated observations, such as humidity data, is critical for their improvement. We investigate the potential of assimilating the SIZRS dropsonde dataset in improving the weather forecast over the Beaufort Sea. A simple local nudging approach is adopted. Along SIZRS flight cross sections, a set of Polar WRF simulations are performed with varying number of variables and dropsonde profiles assimilated. Different model physics are tested to examine the sensitivity of different aspects of model physics, such as boundary layer schemes, cloud microphysics, and radiation parameterization, to data assimilation. The comparison of the Polar WRF runs with

NASA Operation IceBridge Flies Into the Classroom!

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, M.

2017-12-01

Field research opportunities for educators is leveraged as an invaluable tool to increase public engagement in climate research and the geosciences. We investigate the influence of educator's authentic fieldwork by highlighting the post-field impacts of a PolarTREC Teacher who participated in two campaigns, including NASA Operation IceBridge campaign over Antarctica in 2016. NASA's Operation IceBridge has hosted PolarTREC teachers since 2012, welcoming five teachers aboard multiple flights over the Arctic and one over Antarctica. The continuity of teacher inclusion in Operation IceBridge campaigns has facilitated a platform for collaborative curriculum development and revision, integration of National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data into multiple classrooms, and given us a means whereby students can interact with science team members. I present impacts to my teaching and classrooms as I grapple with "Big Data" to allow students to work directly with lidar and radar data, I examine public outreach impacts through analytics from virtual networking tools including social media, NASA's Mission Tools Suite for Education, and field blog interactions.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

The role of water ice clouds in the Martian hydrologic cycle

Science.gov (United States)

James, Philip B.

1990-01-01

A one-dimensional model for the seasonal cycle of water on Mars has been used to investigate the direction of the net annual transport of water on the planet and to study the possible role of water ice clouds, which are included as an independent phase in addition to ground ice and water vapor, in the cycle. The calculated seasonal and spatial patterns of occurrence of water ice clouds are qualitatively similar to the observed polar hoods, suggesting that these polar clouds are, in fact, an important component of water cycle. A residual dry ice in the south acts as a cold trap which, in the absence of sources other than the caps, will ultimately attract the water ice from the north cap; however, in the presence of a source of water in northern midlatitudes during spring, it is possible that the observed distribution of vapor and ice can be in a steady state even if a residual CO2 cap is a permanent feature of the system.

Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support

First Results from IceCube

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, Spencer R.

2006-01-01

IceCube is a 1 km 3 neutrino observatory being built to study neutrino production in active galactic nuclei, gamma-ray bursts, supernova remnants, and a host of other astrophysical sources. High-energy neutrinos may signal the sources of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. IceCube will also study many particle-physics topics: searches for WIMP annihilation in the Earth or the Sun, and for signatures of supersymmetry in neutrino interactions, studies of neutrino properties, including searches for extra dimensions, and searches for exotica such as magnetic monopoles or Q-balls. IceCube will also study the cosmic-ray composition. In January, 2005, 60 digital optical modules (DOMs) were deployed in the South Polar ice at depths ranging from 1450 to 2450 meters, and 8 ice-tanks, each containing 2 DOMs were deployed as part of a surface air-shower array. All 76 DOMs are collecting high-quality data. After discussing the IceCube physics program and hardware, I will present some initial results with the first DOMs

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived From Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Borowski, Stanley K.; Ryan, Stephen W.; Burke, Laura M.; McCurdy, David R.; Fittje, James E.; Joyner, Claude R.

2017-01-01

Since the 1960s, scientists have conjectured that water icecould survive in the cold, permanently shadowed craters located at the Moons poles Clementine (1994), Lunar Prospector (1998),Chandrayaan-1 (2008), and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) (2009) lunar probes have provided data indicating the existence of large quantities of water ice at the lunar poles The Mini-SAR onboard Chandrayaan-1discovered more than 40 permanently shadowed craters near the lunar north pole that are thought to contain 600 million metric tons of water ice. Using neutron spectrometer data, the Lunar Prospector science team estimated a water ice content (1.5 +-0.8 wt in the regolith) found in the Moons polar cold trap sand estimated the total amount of water at both poles at 2 billion metric tons Using Mini-RF and spectrometry data, the LRO LCROSS science team estimated the water ice content in the regolith in the south polar region to be 5.6 +-2.9 wt. On the basis of the above scientific data, it appears that the water ice content can vary from 1-10 wt and the total quantity of LPI at both poles can range from 600 million to 2 billion metric tons NTP offers significant benefits for lunar missions and can take advantage of the leverage provided from using LDPs when they become available by transitioning to LANTR propulsion. LANTR provides a variablethrust and Isp capability, shortens burn times and extends engine life, and allows bipropellant operation The combination of LANTR and LDP has performance capability equivalent to that of a hypothetical gaseousfuel core NTR (effective Isp 1575 s) and can lead to a robust LTS with unique mission capabilities that include short transit time crewed cargo transports and routine commuter flights to the Moon The biggest challenge to making this vision a reality will be the production of increasing amounts of LDP andthe development of propellant depots in LEO, LLO and LPO. An industry

The Use of Satellite Observations in Ice Cover Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

Io rmotions have been used to map upper-level winds over polar diagnose the origins of a large area of reduced ice ,,ncfl.’c regions (Turner and...was motivated by the availability of coverage in the Arctic. Also shown are November-April s-ver!,_- the multiyear ice concentrations derived from

State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015

Science.gov (United States)

Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The

Ross Sea Polynyas: Response of Ice Concentration Retrievals to Large Areas of Thin Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.; Martin, S.; Drucker, R.

2007-01-01

For a 3-month period between May and July of 2005, we examine the response of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) Enhanced NASA Team 2 (NT2) and AMSR-E Bootstrap (ABA) ice concentration algorithms to large areas of thin ice of the Ross Sea polynyas. Coincident Envisat Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) coverage of the region during this period offers a detailed look at the development of the polynyas within several hundred kilometers of the ice front. The high-resolution imagery and derived ice motion fields show bands of polynya ice, covering up to approximately 105 km(sup 2) of the Ross Sea, that are associated with wind-forced advection. In this study, ice thickness from AMSR-E 36 GHz polarization information serves as the basis for examination of the response. The quality of the thickness of newly formed sea ice (<10 cm) from AMSR-E is first assessed with thickness estimates derived from ice surface temperatures from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The effect of large areas of thin ice in lowering the ice concentration estimates from both NT2/ABA approaches is clearly demonstrated. Results show relatively robust relationships between retrieved ice concentrations and thin ice thickness estimates that differ between the two algorithms. These relationships define the approximate spatial coincidence of ice concentration and thickness isopleths. Using the 83% (ABA) and 91% (NT2) isopleths as polynya boundaries, we show that the computed coverage compares well with that using the estimated 10-cm thickness contour. The thin ice response characterized here suggests that in regions with polynyas, the retrieval results could be used to provide useful geophysical information, namely thickness and coverage.

Optimization of High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis for Transient Climate Signals in Ice Cores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bigler, Matthias; Svensson, Anders; Kettner, Ernesto

2011-01-01

Over the past two decades, continuous flow analysis (CFA) systems have been refined and widely used to measure aerosol constituents in polar and alpine ice cores in very high-depth resolution. Here we present a newly designed system consisting of sodium, ammonium, dust particles, and electrolytic...... meltwater conductivity detection modules. The system is optimized for high- resolution determination of transient signals in thin layers of deep polar ice cores. Based on standard measurements and by comparing sections of early Holocene and glacial ice from Greenland, we find that the new system features...

The Second Deep Ice Coring Project at Dome Fuji, Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hideaki Motoyama

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Throughout the history of the polar icecaps, dust and aerosols have been transported through the atmosphere to the poles, to be preserved within the annually freezing ice of the growing ice shields. Therefore, the Antarctic ice sheet is a “time capsule" for environmental data, containing information of ancient periods of Earth’s history. To unravel this history and decode cycles in glaciations and global change is among the major goals of the Dome Fuji Ice Coring Project.

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Ice forces on marine structures. Volume 2, discussion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marcellus, R W; Morrison, T B; Allyn, N F.B.; Croasdale, K R; Iyer, H S; Tseng, J

1988-01-01

A comprehensive state-of-the-art review is provided of the current methodologies in use for estimating the impact of ice forces on various kinds of marine structures: vertical sided or sloping stationary structures, floating structures, and artificial islands. Introductory chapters present ice statistics from selected Canadian marine regions, the failure modes and mechanical properties of ice, and general principles of ice/structure interactions. The methods for calculating ice loads are basically alternative methods for predicting the behavior of ice under different loading conditions; as such, none of the models have been successful in predicting the behavior of ice under all loading conditions. Currently the only reliable method for accurately predicting ice forces on marine structures is to use large-scale empirical data for ice of the same state as that predicted for design. Extrapolation from ice behavioral data at a smaller scale or ice of a different state is generally required. In comparison to current uncertainties, reasonably accurate estimates of upper bound static ice forces can be made, and a design approach using this upper bound force is appropriate for very massive rigid structures and in designing for overall global stability. The periodicity of ice forces also needs to be considered in terms of dynamic amplification of structure deformation, potential liquefaction of soils, and fatigue life. In certain cases, the deflection of the structure can change the ice failure process and therefore change the level and nature of the ice force. 221 refs., 171 figs., 19 tabs.

Sea and Freshwater Ice Concentration from VIIRS on Suomi NPP and the Future JPSS Satellites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yinghui Liu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Information on ice is important for shipping, weather forecasting, and climate monitoring. Historically, ice cover has been detected and ice concentration has been measured using relatively low-resolution space-based passive microwave data. This study presents an algorithm to detect ice and estimate ice concentration in clear-sky areas over the ocean and inland lakes and rivers using high-resolution data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP and on future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS satellites, providing spatial detail that cannot be obtained with passive microwave data. A threshold method is employed with visible and infrared observations to identify ice, then a tie-point algorithm is used to determine the representative reflectance/temperature of pure ice, estimate the ice concentration, and refine the ice cover mask. The VIIRS ice concentration is validated using observations from Landsat 8. Results show that VIIRS has an overall bias of −0.3% compared to Landsat 8 ice concentration, with a precision (uncertainty of 9.5%. Biases and precision values for different ice concentration subranges from 0% to 100% can be larger.

Assessment of the sea-ice carbon pump

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grimm, R.; Notz, D.; Glud, Ronnie N.

2016-01-01

-induced oceanic CO2 uptake ranges from 2 to 14 Tg C yr−1, which is up to 7% of the simulated net CO2 uptake in polar regions, but far less than 1% of the cur-rent global oceanic CO2 uptake. Hence, while we find that the SICP plays a minor role in the modern global carbon cycle, it is of importance......It has been suggested that geochemical processes related to sea-ice growth and melt might be important for the polar carbon cycle via the so called sea-ice carbon pump (SICP). The SICP affects the air-sea CO2 exchange by influencing the composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total...... for the regional carbon cycle at high latitudes....

Solid-State Photochemistry as a Formation Mechanism for Titan's Stratospheric C4N2 Ice Clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, C. M.; Samuelson, R. E.; Yung, Y. L.; McLain, J. L.

2016-01-01

We propose that C4N2 ice clouds observed in Titan's springtime polar stratosphere arise due to solid-state photochemistry occurring within extant ice cloud particles of HCN-HC3N mixtures. This formation process resembles the halogen-induced ice particle surface chemistry that leads to condensed nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles and ozone depletion in Earth's polar stratosphere. As our analysis of the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer 478 per centimeter ice emission feature demonstrates, this solid-state photochemistry mechanism eliminates the need for the relatively high C4N2 saturation vapor pressures required (even though they are not observed) when the ice is produced through the usual procedure of direct condensation from the vapor.

Space Solar Power Technology Demonstration for Lunar Polar Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, M. W.; Fikes, J. C.; Howell, J.; Mankins, J. C.; Howell, J.

2002-01-01

A solar power generation station on a mountaintop near the moon's North or South pole can receive sunlight 708 hours per lunar day, for continuous power generation. Power can be beamed from this station over long distances using a laser-based wireless power transmission system and a photo-voltaic receiver. This beamed energy can provide warmth, electricity, and illumination for a robotic rover to perform scientific experiments in cold, dark craters where no other power source is practical. Radio-frequency power transmission may also be demonstrated in lunar polar applications to locate and recover sub-surface deposits of volatile material, such as water ice. High circular polarization ratios observed in data from Clementine spacecraft and Arecibo radar reflections from the moon's South pole suggest that water ice is indeed present in certain lunar polar craters. Data from the Lunar Prospector spacecraft's epi-thermal neutron spectrometer also indicate that hydrogen is present at the moon's poles. Space Solar Power technology enables investigation of these craters, which may contain a billion-year-old stratigraphic record of tremendous scientific value. Layers of ice, preserved at the moon's poles, could help us determine the sequence and composition of comet impacts on the moon. Such ice deposits may even include distinct strata deposited by secondary ejecta following significant Earth (ocean) impacts, linked to major extinctions of life on Earth. Ice resources at the moon's poles could provide water and air for human exploration and development of space as well as rocket propellant for future space transportation. Technologies demonstrated and matured via lunar polar applications can also be used in other NASA science missions (Valles Marineris. Phobos, Deimos, Mercury's poles, asteroids, etc.) and in future large-scale SSP systems to beam energy from space to Earth. Ground-based technology demonstrations are proceeding to mature the technology for such a near

Investigating Mercury's South Polar Deposits: Arecibo Radar Observations and High-Resolution Determination of Illumination Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chabot, Nancy L.; Shread, Evangela E.; Harmon, John K.

2018-02-01

There is strong evidence that Mercury's polar deposits are water ice hosted in permanently shadowed regions. In this study, we present new Arecibo radar observations of Mercury's south pole, which reveal numerous radar-bright deposits and substantially increase the radar imaging coverage. We also use images from MESSENGER's full mission to determine the illumination conditions of Mercury's south polar region at the same spatial resolution as the north polar region, enabling comparisons between the two poles. The area of radar-bright deposits in Mercury's south is roughly double that found in the north, consistent with the larger permanently shadowed area in the older, cratered terrain at the south relative to the younger smooth plains at the north. Radar-bright features are strongly associated with regions of permanent shadow at both poles, consistent with water ice being the dominant component of the deposits. However, both of Mercury's polar regions show that roughly 50% of permanently shadowed regions lack radar-bright deposits, despite some of these locations having thermal environments that are conducive to the presence of water ice. The observed uneven distribution of water ice among Mercury's polar cold traps may suggest that the source of Mercury's water ice was not a steady, regular process but rather that the source was an episodic event, such as a recent, large impact on the innermost planet.

Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Oakley, Karen L.; Atwood, Todd C.; Mugel, Douglas N.; Rode, Karyn D.; Whalen, Mary E.

2015-01-01

The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to the loss of snow and ice, which increases the amount of solar energy absorbed by the region. The most visible consequence has been the rapid decline in sea ice over the last 3 decades-a decline projected to bring long ice-free summers if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not significantly reduced. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice over the biologically productive continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean as a platform for hunting seals. In 2008, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) due to the threat posed by sea ice loss. The polar bear was the first species to be listed due to forecasted population declines from climate change.

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Stirling, Ian; McDonald, Trent L; Richardson, E S; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steven C

2011-04-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture-recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2-4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 +/- 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need to

Polar bear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Stirling, I.; McDonald, T.L.; Richardson, E.S.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2011-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the northern Beaufort Sea (NB) population occur on the perimeter of the polar basin adjacent to the northwestern islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Sea ice converges on the islands through most of the year. We used open-population capture–recapture models to estimate population size and vital rates of polar bears between 1971 and 2006 to: (1) assess relationships between survival, sex and age, and time period; (2) evaluate the long-term importance of sea ice quality and availability in relation to climate warming; and (3) note future management and conservation concerns. The highest-ranking models suggested that survival of polar bears varied by age class and with changes in the sea ice habitat. Model-averaged estimates of survival (which include harvest mortality) for senescent adults ranged from 0.37 to 0.62, from 0.22 to 0.68 for cubs of the year (COY) and yearlings, and from 0.77 to 0.92 for 2–4 year-olds and adults. Horvtiz-Thompson (HT) estimates of population size were not significantly different among the decades of our study. The population size estimated for the 2000s was 980 ± 155 (mean and 95% CI). These estimates apply primarily to that segment of the NB population residing west and south of Banks Island. The NB polar bear population appears to have been stable or possibly increasing slightly during the period of our study. This suggests that ice conditions have remained suitable and similar for feeding in summer and fall during most years and that the traditional and legal Inuvialuit harvest has not exceeded sustainable levels. However, the amount of ice remaining in the study area at the end of summer, and the proportion that continues to lie over the biologically productive continental shelf (polar bear population in the northern Beaufort Sea will eventually decline. Management and conservation practices for polar bears in relation to both aboriginal harvesting and offshore industrial activity will need

Polar oceans in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, David K A; Tarling, Geraint A

2017-06-05

Most of Earth's surface is blue or white, but how much of each would depend on the time of observation. Our planet has been through phases of snowball (all frozen), greenhouse (all liquid seas) and icehouse (frozen and liquid). Even during current icehouse conditions, the extent of ice versus water has changed considerably between ice ages and interglacial periods. Water has been vital for life on Earth and has driven and been influenced by transitions between greenhouse and icehouse. However, neither the possession of water nor having liquid and frozen seas are unique to Earth (Figure 1). Frozen water oceans on the moons Enceladus and Europa (and possibly others) and the liquid and frozen hydrocarbon oceans on Titan probably represent the most likely areas to find extraterrestrial life. We know very little about life in Earth's polar oceans, yet they are the engine of the thermohaline 'conveyor-belt', driving global circulation of heat, oxygen, carbon and nutrients as well as setting sea level through change in ice-mass balance. In regions of polar seas, where surface water is particularly cold and dense, it sinks to generate a tropic-ward flow on the ocean floor of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Cold water holds more gas, so this sinking water exports O 2 and nutrients, thereby supporting life in the deep sea, as well as soaking up CO 2 from the atmosphere. Water from mid-depths at lower latitudes flows in to replace the sinking polar surface water. This brings heat. The poles are cold because they receive the least energy from the sun, and this extreme light climate varies on many different time scales. To us, the current warm, interglacial conditions seem normal, yet such phases have represented only ∼10% of Homo sapiens' existence. Variations in Earth's orbit (so called 'Milankovitch cycles') have driven cyclical alternation of glaciations (ice ages) and warmer interglacials. Despite this, Earth's polar regions have been our planet's most

Winter sea ice export from the Laptev Sea preconditions the local summer sea ice cover and fast ice decay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Itkin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul D Mathewson

Full Text Available In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™ to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal's energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Simulating polar bear energetics during a seasonal fast using a mechanistic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathewson, Paul D; Porter, Warren P

2013-01-01

In this study we tested the ability of a mechanistic model (Niche Mapper™) to accurately model adult, non-denning polar bear (Ursus maritimus) energetics while fasting during the ice-free season in the western Hudson Bay. The model uses a steady state heat balance approach, which calculates the metabolic rate that will allow an animal to maintain its core temperature in its particular microclimate conditions. Predicted weight loss for a 120 day fast typical of the 1990s was comparable to empirical studies of the population, and the model was able to reach a heat balance at the target metabolic rate for the entire fast, supporting use of the model to explore the impacts of climate change on polar bears. Niche Mapper predicted that all but the poorest condition bears would survive a 120 day fast under current climate conditions. When the fast extended to 180 days, Niche Mapper predicted mortality of up to 18% for males. Our results illustrate how environmental conditions, variation in animal properties, and thermoregulation processes may impact survival during extended fasts because polar bears were predicted to require additional energetic expenditure for thermoregulation during a 180 day fast. A uniform 3°C temperature increase reduced male mortality during a 180 day fast from 18% to 15%. Niche Mapper explicitly links an animal's energetics to environmental conditions and thus can be a valuable tool to help inform predictions of climate-related population changes. Since Niche Mapper is a generic model, it can make energetic predictions for other species threatened by climate change.

Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance

Science.gov (United States)

Fountain, A.; Kargel, J.; Lewis, K.; MacAyeal, D.; Pfeffer, T.; Zwally, J.

2000-01-01

At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.

Acoustic detection of ultra-high energy cascades in ice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boeser, S.

2006-12-08

Current underwater optical neutrino telescopes are designed to detect neutrinos from astrophysical sources with energies in the TeV range. Due to the low fluxes and small cross sections, no high energy neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin have been observed so far. Only the Cherenkov neutrino detectors on the km{sup 3} scale that are currently under construction will have the necessary volume to observe these rare interactions. For the guaranteed source of neutrinos from interactions of the ultra-high energy cosmic at EeV energies rays with the ambient cosmic microwave background, event rates of only one per year are expected in these experiments. To measure the flux and verify the predicted cross sections of these cosmogenic neutrinos, an observed volume of the order of 100 km{sup 3} will be necessary, that will not be feasible with existing detection techniques. Alternative methods are required to build a detector on these scales. One promising idea is to record the acoustic waves generated in hadronic or electromagnetic cascades following the neutrino interaction. The higher amplitudes of the sonic signal and the large expected absorption length of sound favour South Polar ice instead of sea water as a medium. The prerequisites for an estimate of the potential of such a detector are suitable acoustic sensors, a verification of the model of thermo-acoustic sound generation and a determination of the acoustic properties of the ice. In a theoretical derivation the mechanism of thermo-elastic excitation of acoustic waves was shown to be equivalent for isotropic solids and liquids. Following a detailed analysis of the existing knowledge a simulation study of a hybrid optical-radio-acoustic detector has been performed. Ultrasonic sensors dedicated to in-ice application were developed and have been used to record acoustic signals from intense proton and laser beams in water and ice. With the obtained experience, the hitherto largest array of acoustic sensors and

Acoustic detection of ultra-high energy cascades in ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeser, S.

2006-01-01

Current underwater optical neutrino telescopes are designed to detect neutrinos from astrophysical sources with energies in the TeV range. Due to the low fluxes and small cross sections, no high energy neutrinos of extraterrestrial origin have been observed so far. Only the Cherenkov neutrino detectors on the km 3 scale that are currently under construction will have the necessary volume to observe these rare interactions. For the guaranteed source of neutrinos from interactions of the ultra-high energy cosmic at EeV energies rays with the ambient cosmic microwave background, event rates of only one per year are expected in these experiments. To measure the flux and verify the predicted cross sections of these cosmogenic neutrinos, an observed volume of the order of 100 km 3 will be necessary, that will not be feasible with existing detection techniques. Alternative methods are required to build a detector on these scales. One promising idea is to record the acoustic waves generated in hadronic or electromagnetic cascades following the neutrino interaction. The higher amplitudes of the sonic signal and the large expected absorption length of sound favour South Polar ice instead of sea water as a medium. The prerequisites for an estimate of the potential of such a detector are suitable acoustic sensors, a verification of the model of thermo-acoustic sound generation and a determination of the acoustic properties of the ice. In a theoretical derivation the mechanism of thermo-elastic excitation of acoustic waves was shown to be equivalent for isotropic solids and liquids. Following a detailed analysis of the existing knowledge a simulation study of a hybrid optical-radio-acoustic detector has been performed. Ultrasonic sensors dedicated to in-ice application were developed and have been used to record acoustic signals from intense proton and laser beams in water and ice. With the obtained experience, the hitherto largest array of acoustic sensors and transmitters was

Thermal Stability of Frozen Volatiles in the North Polar Region of Mercury

Science.gov (United States)

Paige, David A.; Siegler, Matthew A.; Harmon, John K.; Smith, David E.; Zuber, Maria T.; Neumann, Gregory A.; Solomon, Sean C.

2012-01-01

Earth-based radar observations have revealed the presence on Mercury of anomalously bright, depolarizing features that appear to be localized in the permanently shadowed regions of high-latitude impact craters [1]. Observations of similar radar signatures over a range of radar wavelengths implies that they correspond to deposits that are highly transparent at radar wavelengths and extend to depths of several meters below the surface [1]. Thermal models using idealized crater topographic profiles have predicted the thermal stability of surface and subsurface water ice at these same latitudes [2]. One of the major goals of the MESSENGER mission is to characterize the nature of radar-bright craters and presumed associated frozen volatile deposits at the poles of Mercury through complementary orbital observations by a suite of instruments [3]. Here we report on an examination of the thermal stability of water ice and other frozen volatiles in the north polar region of Mercury using topographic profiles obtained by the Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) instrument [4] in conjunction with a three-dimensional ray-tracing thermal model previously used to study the thermal environment of polar craters on the Moon [5].

Effect of Ice-Shell Thickness Variations on the Tidal Deformation of Enceladus

Science.gov (United States)

Choblet, G.; Cadek, O.; Behounkova, M.; Tobie, G.; Kozubek, T.

2015-12-01

Recent analysis of Enceladus's gravity and topography has suggested that the thickness of the ice shell significantly varies laterally - from 30-40 km in the south polar region to 60 km elsewhere. These variations may influence the activity of the geysers and increase the tidal heat production in regions where the ice shell is thinned. Using a model including a regional or global subsurface ocean and Maxwell viscoelasticity, we investigate the impact of these variations on the tidal deformation of the moon and its heat production. For that purpose, we use different numerical approaches - finite elements, local application of 1d spectral method, and a generalized spectral method. Results obtained with these three approaches for various models of ice-shell thickness variations are presented and compared. Implications of a reduced ice shell thickness for the south polar terrain activity are discussed.

Autonomous Ice Mass Balance Buoys for Seasonal Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Whitlock, J. D.; Planck, C.; Perovich, D. K.; Parno, J. T.; Elder, B. C.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2017-12-01

The ice mass-balance represents the integration of all surface and ocean heat fluxes and attributing the impact of these forcing fluxes on the ice cover can be accomplished by increasing temporal and spatial measurements. Mass balance information can be used to understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic sea ice cover and to improve predictions of future ice conditions. Thinner seasonal ice in the Arctic necessitates the deployment of Autonomous Ice Mass Balance buoys (IMB's) capable of long-term, in situ data collection in both ice and open ocean. Seasonal IMB's (SIMB's) are free floating IMB's that allow data collection in thick ice, thin ice, during times of transition, and even open water. The newest generation of SIMB aims to increase the number of reliable IMB's in the Arctic by leveraging inexpensive commercial-grade instrumentation when combined with specially developed monitoring hardware. Monitoring tasks are handled by a custom, expandable data logger that provides low-cost flexibility for integrating a large range of instrumentation. The SIMB features ultrasonic sensors for direct measurement of both snow depth and ice thickness and a digital temperature chain (DTC) for temperature measurements every 2cm through both snow and ice. Air temperature and pressure, along with GPS data complete the Arctic picture. Additionally, the new SIMB is more compact to maximize deployment opportunities from multiple types of platforms.

Investigations of the form and flow of ice sheets and glaciers using radio-echo sounding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowdeswell, J A; Evans, S [Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1ER (United Kingdom)

2004-10-01

Radio-echo sounding (RES), utilizing a variety of radio frequencies, was developed to allow glaciologists to measure the thickness of ice sheets and glaciers. We review the nature of electromagnetic wave propagation in ice and snow, including the permittivity of ice, signal attenuation and volume scattering, along with reflection from rough and specular surfaces. The variety of instruments used in RES of polar ice sheets and temperate glaciers is discussed. The applications and insights that a knowledge of ice thickness, and the wider nature of the form and flow of ice sheets, provides are also considered. The thickest ice measured is 4.7 km in East Antarctica. The morphology of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and many of the smaller ice caps and glaciers of the polar regions, has been investigated using RES. These findings are being used in three-dimensional numerical models of the response of the cryosphere to environmental change. In addition, the distribution and character of internal and basal reflectors within ice sheets contains information on, for example, ice-sheet layering and its chrono-stratigraphic significance, and has enabled the discovery and investigation of large lakes beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Today, RES from ground-based and airborne platforms remains the most effective tool for measuring ice thickness and internal character.

Assessment of the sea-ice carbon pump: Insights from a three-dimensional ocean-sea-ice biogeochemical model (NEMO-LIM-PISCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sébastien Moreau

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract The role of sea ice in the carbon cycle is minimally represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs. Among potentially important flaws, mentioned by several authors and generally overlooked during ESM design, is the link between sea-ice growth and melt and oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC and total alkalinity (TA. Here we investigate whether this link is indeed an important feature of the marine carbon cycle misrepresented in ESMs. We use an ocean general circulation model (NEMO-LIM-PISCES with sea-ice and marine carbon cycle components, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, adding a first-order representation of DIC and TA storage and release in/from sea ice. Our results suggest that DIC rejection during sea-ice growth releases several hundred Tg C yr−1 to the surface ocean, of which < 2% is exported to depth, leading to a notable but weak redistribution of DIC towards deep polar basins. Active carbon processes (mainly CaCO3 precipitation but also ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes and net community production increasing the TA/DIC ratio in sea-ice modified ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes by a few Tg C yr−1 in the sea-ice zone, with specific hemispheric effects: DIC content of the Arctic basin decreased but DIC content of the Southern Ocean increased. For the global ocean, DIC content increased by 4 Tg C yr−1 or 2 Pg C after 500 years of model run. The simulated numbers are generally small compared to the present-day global ocean annual CO2 sink (2.6 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1. However, sea-ice carbon processes seem important at regional scales as they act significantly on DIC redistribution within and outside polar basins. The efficiency of carbon export to depth depends on the representation of surface-subsurface exchanges and their relationship with sea ice, and could differ substantially if a higher resolution or different ocean model were used.

Atmospheric Modeling of the Martian Polar Regions: CRISM EPF Coverage During the South Polar Spring Recession

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, A. J.; McGuire, P.; Wolff, M. J.

2008-03-01

We describe efforts to model dust and ice aerosols content and soils and icy surface reflectance in the Martian southern polar region during spring recession (Ls = 152-320) using CRISM emission phase function (EPF) observations.

NASA Iced Aerodynamics and Controls Current Research

Science.gov (United States)

Addy, Gene

2009-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the state of current research in the area of aerodynamics and aircraft control with ice conditions by the Aviation Safety Program, part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls Project (IRAC). Included in the presentation is a overview of the modeling efforts. The objective of the modeling is to develop experimental and computational methods to model and predict aircraft response during adverse flight conditions, including icing. The Aircraft icing modeling efforts includes the Ice-Contaminated Aerodynamics Modeling, which examines the effects of ice contamination on aircraft aerodynamics, and CFD modeling of ice-contaminated aircraft aerodynamics, and Advanced Ice Accretion Process Modeling which examines the physics of ice accretion, and works on computational modeling of ice accretions. The IRAC testbed, a Generic Transport Model (GTM) and its use in the investigation of the effects of icing on its aerodynamics is also reviewed. This has led to a more thorough understanding and models, both theoretical and empirical of icing physics and ice accretion for airframes, advanced 3D ice accretion prediction codes, CFD methods for iced aerodynamics and better understanding of aircraft iced aerodynamics and its effects on control surface effectiveness.

Comparison of measured and computed phase functions of individual tropospheric ice crystals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stegmann, Patrick G.; Tropea, Cameron; Järvinen, Emma; Schnaiter, Martin

2016-01-01

Airplanes passing the incuda (lat. anvils) regions of tropical cumulonimbi-clouds are at risk of suffering an engine power-loss event and engine damage due to ice ingestion (Mason et al., 2006 [1]). Research in this field relies on optical measurement methods to characterize ice crystals; however the design and implementation of such methods presently suffer from the lack of reliable and efficient means of predicting the light scattering from ice crystals. The nascent discipline of direct measurement of phase functions of ice crystals in conjunction with particle imaging and forward modelling through geometrical optics derivative- and Transition matrix-codes for the first time allow us to obtain a deeper understanding of the optical properties of real tropospheric ice crystals. In this manuscript, a sample phase function obtained via the Particle Habit Imaging and Polar Scattering (PHIPS) probe during a measurement campaign in flight over Brazil will be compared to three different light scattering codes. This includes a newly developed first order geometrical optics code taking into account the influence of the Gaussian beam illumination used in the PHIPS device, as well as the reference ray tracing code of Macke and the T-matrix code of Kahnert. - Highlights: • A GO code for shaped beams and non-spherical particles has been developed. • The code has been validated against exact Mie results. • Measured and computed phase functions for a single ice crystal have been compared. • The comparison highlights differences in the backscattering region.

A Web-Based Polar Firn Model to Motivate Interest in Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, P. D.; Lundin, J.; Stevens, C.; Leahy, W.; Waddington, E. D.

2013-12-01

How long would you have to dig straight down in Greenland before you reached solid ice? This is one of many questions that could be answered by a typical high school student using our online firn model. Firn is fallen snow that compacts under its own weight and eventually turns into glacial ice. The Herron and Langway (1980) firn model describes this process. An important component of predicting future climate change is researching past climate change. Some details of our past climate are discovered by analyzing polar ice and the firn process. Firn research can also be useful for understanding how changes in ice surface levels reflect changes in the ice mass. We have produced an online version of the Herron and Langway model that provides a simple way for students to learn how polar snow turns into ice. As a user, you can enter some climatic conditions (accumulation rate, temperature, and surface density) into our graphical user interface and press 'Submit'. We take the numbers you enter in your internet browser, send them to the model written in Python that is running on our server, and provide links to your results, all within seconds. The model produces firn depth, density, and age data. The results appear on the webpage in both text and graphical format. We have developed an example lesson plan appropriate for a high-school physics or environmental science class. The online model offers students an opportunity to apply their scientific knowledge in order to understand real-world physical processes. Additionally, students learn about scientific research and the tools scientists use to conduct it. The model can be used as a standalone lesson or as a part of a larger climate-science unit. The online model was created with funding from the Washington NASA Space Grant Consortium and the National Science Foundation's Partnerships for International Research and Education program.

The polar mesosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, Ray; Murphy, Damian

2008-01-01

The mesosphere region, which lies at the edge of space, contains the coldest layer of the Earth's atmosphere, with summer temperatures as low as minus 130 °C. In this extreme environment ice aerosol layers have appeared since the dawn of industrialization—whose existence may arguably be linked to human influence—on yet another layer of the Earth's fragile atmosphere. Ground-based and space-based experiments conducted in the Arctic and Antarctic during the International Polar Year (IPY) aim to address limitations in our knowledge and to advance our understanding of thermal and dynamical processes at play in the polar mesosphere

Significance of Thermal Fluvial Incision and Bedrock Transfer due to Ice Advection on Greenland Ice Sheet Topography

Science.gov (United States)

Crozier, J. A.; Karlstrom, L.; Yang, K.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet surface topography reflects a complicated combination of processes that act directly upon the surface and that are products of ice advection. Using recently-available high resolution ice velocity, imagery, ice surface elevation, and bedrock elevation data sets, we seek to determine the domain of significance of two important processes - thermal fluvial incision and transfer of bedrock topography through the ice sheet - on controlling surface topography in the ablation zone. Evaluating such controls is important for understanding how melting of the GIS surface during the melt season may be directly imprinted in topography through supraglacial drainage networks, and indirectly imprinted through its contribution to basal sliding that affects bedrock transfer. We use methods developed by (Karlstrom and Yang, 2016) to identify supraglacial stream networks on the GIS, and use high resolution surface digital elevation models as well as gridded ice velocity and melt rate models to quantify surface processes. We implement a numerically efficient Fourier domain bedrock transfer function (Gudmundsson, 2003) to predict surface topography due to ice advection over bedrock topography obtained from radar. Despite a number of simplifying assumptions, the bedrock transfer function predicts the observed ice sheet surface in most regions of the GIS with ˜90% accuracy, regardless of the presence or absence of supraglacial drainage networks. This supports the hypothesis that bedrock is the most significant driver of ice surface topography on wavelengths similar to ice thickness. Ice surface topographic asymmetry on the GIS is common, with slopes in the direction of ice flow steeper than those faced opposite to ice flow, consistent with bedrock transfer theory. At smaller wavelengths, topography consistent with fluvial erosion by surface hydrologic features is evident. We quantify the effect of ice advection versus fluvial thermal erosion on supraglacial longitudinal stream

Sea-ice floe-size distribution in the context of spontaneous scaling emergence in stochastic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Agnieszka

2010-06-01

Sea-ice floe-size distribution (FSD) in ice-pack covered seas influences many aspects of ocean-atmosphere interactions. However, data concerning FSD in the polar oceans are still sparse and processes shaping the observed FSD properties are poorly understood. Typically, power-law FSDs are assumed although no feasible explanation has been provided neither for this one nor for other properties of the observed distributions. Consequently, no model exists capable of predicting FSD parameters in any particular situation. Here I show that the observed FSDs can be well represented by a truncated Pareto distribution P(x)=x-1-αexp[(1-α)/x] , which is an emergent property of a certain group of multiplicative stochastic systems, described by the generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) equation. Building upon this recognition, a possibility of developing a simple agent-based GLV-type sea-ice model is considered. Contrary to simple power-law FSDs, GLV gives consistent estimates of the total floe perimeter, as well as floe-area distribution in agreement with observations.

Characterization of snow, ice and neve by image processing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, Michel

1999-01-01

It is now recognized that human activities, by the extent they have achieved since the industrial era, are likely to alter the Earth's climate (IPCC, 1996). Paleo climate and the climate change models show that the polar caps are particularly sensitive to global climate change. They are more likely to play an important role but unknown on the sea level. The positive term of mass balance of polar ice sheets is the accumulation of snow, whereas the negative term is formed by the flow of ice into the oceans. The size of the polar ice caps and their hostile environment limit the amount of available field data. Only satellite remote sensing is able to provide information on geographical scales as large as Antarctica or the Arctic and allows regular monitoring over time. But to be easily interpreted, in order to deduce the snowpack characteristics observed from space (size, shape of grains, surface roughness... ), satellite data should be validated and inverted using simplified parameters. Prior to the establishment of these relations, it is necessary to develop a snow reflectance model (thesis C. Leroux 1996) taking into account the physical and optical characteristics of the snow, and a microwave emissivity model (thesis Surdyck S. 1993) that provide volume information on the morphology of the snowpack. The snowpack is characterized by several physical parameters that depend on the depth: temperature, density, size and shape of grains mainly. It is therefore essential to establish a robust and simple parameterization of the size and shape of snow grains from their observation. Image processing allows to establish these relationships and allows automatic processing of a large number of data independent of the observer. Another glaciological problem of firn is the interpretation of data obtained from the analysis of trapped air bubbles in the gas. This study implies, in particular, the dating of the ice in the firn at the close off, is necessary to determine the age of

Frazil-ice growth rate and dynamics in mixed layers and sub-ice-shelf plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Rees Jones, David W.; Wells, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The growth of frazil or granular ice is an important mode of ice formation in the cryosphere. Recent advances have improved our understanding of the microphysical processes that control the rate of ice-crystal growth when water is cooled beneath its freezing temperature. These advances suggest that crystals grow much faster than previously thought. In this paper, we consider models of a population of ice crystals with different sizes to provide insight into the treatment of frazil ice in large-scale models. We consider the role of crystal growth alongside the other physical processes that determine the dynamics of frazil ice. We apply our model to a simple mixed layer (such as at the surface of the ocean) and to a buoyant plume under a floating ice shelf. We provide numerical calculations and scaling arguments to predict the occurrence of frazil-ice explosions, which we show are controlled by crystal growth, nucleation, and gravitational removal. Faster crystal growth, higher secondary nucleation, and slower gravitational removal make frazil-ice explosions more likely. We identify steady-state crystal size distributions, which are largely insensitive to crystal growth rate but are affected by the relative importance of secondary nucleation to gravitational removal. Finally, we show that the fate of plumes underneath ice shelves is dramatically affected by frazil-ice dynamics. Differences in the parameterization of crystal growth and nucleation give rise to radically different predictions of basal accretion and plume dynamics, and can even impact whether a plume reaches the end of the ice shelf or intrudes at depth.

Arctic landfast sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Konig, Christof S.

Landfast ice is sea ice which forms and remains fixed along a coast, where it is attached either to the shore, or held between shoals or grounded icebergs. Landfast ice fundamentally modifies the momentum exchange between atmosphere and ocean, as compared to pack ice. It thus affects the heat and freshwater exchange between air and ocean and impacts on the location of ocean upwelling and downwelling zones. Further, the landfast ice edge is essential for numerous Arctic mammals and Inupiat who depend on them for their subsistence. The current generation of sea ice models is not capable of reproducing certain aspects of landfast ice formation, maintenance, and disintegration even when the spatial resolution would be sufficient to resolve such features. In my work I develop a new ice model that permits the existence of landfast sea ice even in the presence of offshore winds, as is observed in mature. Based on viscous-plastic as well as elastic-viscous-plastic ice dynamics I add tensile strength to the ice rheology and re-derive the equations as well as numerical methods to solve them. Through numerical experiments on simplified domains, the effects of those changes are demonstrated. It is found that the modifications enable landfast ice modeling, as desired. The elastic-viscous-plastic rheology leads to initial velocity fluctuations within the landfast ice that weaken the ice sheet and break it up much faster than theoretically predicted. Solving the viscous-plastic rheology using an implicit numerical method avoids those waves and comes much closer to theoretical predictions. Improvements in landfast ice modeling can only verified in comparison to observed data. I have extracted landfast sea ice data of several decades from several sources to create a landfast sea ice climatology that can be used for that purpose. Statistical analysis of the data shows several factors that significantly influence landfast ice distribution: distance from the coastline, ocean depth, as

Cloud chamber experiments on the origin of ice crystal complexity in cirrus clouds

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