Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.
Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R
2018-12-01
Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gómez Déniz, Emilio
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper the analysis of the collective risk model assuming Erlang loss, when the claim frequency follows the discrete generalized Lindley distribution, is considered. After providing some new results of this discrete model, analytical expressions for the aggregate claim size distribution in general insurance in the case that the discrete generalized Lindley distribution is assumed as the primary distribution while claim size, the secondary distribution, is modeled using an Erlang(r distribution (r = 1; 2. Comparisons with the compound Poisson and compound negative binomial are developed to explain the viability of the new compound model in two examples in automobile insurance. || En este artículo se analiza el modelo de riesgo colectivo asumiendo que la cantidad individual reclamada sigue una función de densidad Erlang y el número de reclamaciones es una variable aleatoria cuya función masa de probabilidad es la generalizada discreta Lindley. En la primera parte de este trabajo se presentan nuevas propiedades de esta distribución discreta; seguidamente, se calculan expresiones analíticas para la cantidad total reclamada en seguros generales cuando la distribución primaria es la generalizada discreta Lindley, asumiendo la densidad Erlang(r (r = 1; 2 como distribución secundaria. En la ilustración numérica, el nuevo modelo expuesto en este artículo se compara con los modelos compuestos Poisson y Binomial Negativa en dos ejemplos, en el contexto de seguros de automóviles, para mostrar su efectividad.
A Duality Result for the Generalized Erlang Risk Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lanpeng Ji
2014-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, we consider the generalized Erlang risk model and its dual model. By using a conditional measure-preserving correspondence between the two models, we derive an identity for two interesting conditional probabilities. Applications to the discounted joint density of the surplus prior to ruin and the deficit at ruin are also discussed.
A large deviations approach to the transient of the Erlang loss model
Mandjes, M.R.H.; Ridder, Annemarie
2001-01-01
This paper deals with the transient behavior of the Erlang loss model. After scaling both arrival rate and number of trunks, an asymptotic analysis of the blocking probability is given. Apart from that, the most likely path to blocking is given. Compared to Shwartz and Weiss [Large Deviations for
Zero-truncated negative binomial - Erlang distribution
Bodhisuwan, Winai; Pudprommarat, Chookait; Bodhisuwan, Rujira; Saothayanun, Luckhana
2017-11-01
The zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution is introduced. It is developed from negative binomial-Erlang distribution. In this work, the probability mass function is derived and some properties are included. The parameters of the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution are estimated by using the maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, the proposed distribution is applied to real data, the number of methamphetamine in the Bangkok, Thailand. Based on the results, it shows that the zero-truncated negative binomial-Erlang distribution provided a better fit than the zero-truncated Poisson, zero-truncated negative binomial, zero-truncated generalized negative-binomial and zero-truncated Poisson-Lindley distributions for this data.
Modeling Erlang's Ideal Grading with Multirate BPP Traffic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mariusz Glabowski
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a complete methodology for modeling gradings (also called non-full-availability groups servicing single-service and multi-service traffic streams. The methodology worked out by the authors makes it possible to determine traffic characteristics of various types of gradings with state-dependent call arrival processes, including a new proposed structure of the Erlang’s Ideal Grading with the multirate links. The elaborated models of the gradings can be used for modeling different systems of modern networks, for example, the radio interfaces of the UMTS system, switching networks carrying a mixture of different multirate traffic streams, and video-on-demand systems. The results of the analytical calculations are compared with the results of the simulation data for selected gradings, which confirm high accuracy of the proposed methodology.
Asymptotic inversion of the Erlang B formula
Leeuwaarden, van J.S.H.; Temme, N.M.
2008-01-01
The Erlang B formula represents the steady-state blocking probability in the Erlang loss model or M=M=s=s queue. We derive asymptotic expansions for the offered load that matches, for a given number of servers, a certain blocking probability. In addressing this inversion problem we make use of
Branes in Poisson sigma models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Falceto, Fernando
2010-01-01
In this review we discuss possible boundary conditions (branes) for the Poisson sigma model. We show how to carry out the perturbative quantization in the presence of a general pre-Poisson brane and how this is related to the deformation quantization of Poisson structures. We conclude with an open problem: the perturbative quantization of the system when the boundary has several connected components and we use a different pre-Poisson brane in every component.
Autocoding State Machine in Erlang
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guo, Yu; Hoffman, Torben; Gunder, Nicholas
2008-01-01
This paper presents an autocoding tool suit, which supports development of state machine in a model-driven fashion, where models are central to all phases of the development process. The tool suit, which is built on the Eclipse platform, provides facilities for the graphical specification...... of a state machine model. Once the state machine is specified, it is used as input to a code generation engine that generates source code in Erlang....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. D. Khomonenko
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Subject of Research.Software reliability and test planning models are studied taking into account the probabilistic nature of error detection and discovering. Modeling of software testing enables to plan the resources and final quality at early stages of project execution. Methods. Two dynamic models of processes (strategies are suggested for software testing, using error detection probability for each software module. The Erlang distribution is used for arbitrary distribution approximation of fault resolution duration. The exponential distribution is used for approximation of fault resolution discovering. For each strategy, modified labeled graphs are built, along with differential equation systems and their numerical solutions. The latter makes it possible to compute probabilistic characteristics of the test processes and states: probability states, distribution functions for fault detection and elimination, mathematical expectations of random variables, amount of detected or fixed errors. Evaluation of Results. Probabilistic characteristics for software development projects were calculated using suggested models. The strategies have been compared by their quality indexes. Required debugging time to achieve the specified quality goals was calculated. The calculation results are used for time and resources planning for new projects. Practical Relevance. The proposed models give the possibility to use the reliability estimates for each individual module. The Erlang approximation removes restrictions on the use of arbitrary time distribution for fault resolution duration. It improves the accuracy of software test process modeling and helps to take into account the viability (power of the tests. With the use of these models we can search for ways to improve software reliability by generating tests which detect errors with the highest probability.
Relaxed Poisson cure rate models.
Rodrigues, Josemar; Cordeiro, Gauss M; Cancho, Vicente G; Balakrishnan, N
2016-03-01
The purpose of this article is to make the standard promotion cure rate model (Yakovlev and Tsodikov, ) more flexible by assuming that the number of lesions or altered cells after a treatment follows a fractional Poisson distribution (Laskin, ). It is proved that the well-known Mittag-Leffler relaxation function (Berberan-Santos, ) is a simple way to obtain a new cure rate model that is a compromise between the promotion and geometric cure rate models allowing for superdispersion. So, the relaxed cure rate model developed here can be considered as a natural and less restrictive extension of the popular Poisson cure rate model at the cost of an additional parameter, but a competitor to negative-binomial cure rate models (Rodrigues et al., ). Some mathematical properties of a proper relaxed Poisson density are explored. A simulation study and an illustration of the proposed cure rate model from the Bayesian point of view are finally presented. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Topological Poisson Sigma models on Poisson-Lie groups
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calvo, Ivan; Falceto, Fernando; Garcia-Alvarez, David
2003-01-01
We solve the topological Poisson Sigma model for a Poisson-Lie group G and its dual G*. We show that the gauge symmetry for each model is given by its dual group that acts by dressing transformations on the target. The resolution of both models in the open geometry reveals that there exists a map from the reduced phase of each model (P and P*) to the main symplectic leaf of the Heisenberg double (D 0 ) such that the symplectic forms on P, P* are obtained as the pull-back by those maps of the symplectic structure on D 0 . This uncovers a duality between P and P* under the exchange of bulk degrees of freedom of one model with boundary degrees of freedom of the other one. We finally solve the Poisson Sigma model for the Poisson structure on G given by a pair of r-matrices that generalizes the Poisson-Lie case. The Hamiltonian analysis of the theory requires the introduction of a deformation of the Heisenberg double. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iversen, Villy Bæk
2012-01-01
This paper presents a robust and efficient algorithm for evaluating multi-service multi-rate queueing systems, including finite buffer systems and loss systems. Vint Cerf listed in 2007 seven research problems concerning the Internet. This paper responds to the second problem: an Internet Erlang...
On multi-rate Erlang-B computations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Iversen, Villy Bæk; Nilsson, A.A.; Perry, M.
1999-01-01
The single-rate Erlang-B model is and has been a cornerstone of numerous traffic engineering applications which involve the calculation and optimization of blocking probabilities. However, with the emerging integrated multimedia networks, one single traffic type is often inadequate. Yet the single......-rate Erlang-B model is often used even for today's new networks. A primary reason for this is the existence of methods to compute blocking probabilities and their derivatives that are simple, fast, and stable. With this paper, we provide an improved, and better, way of computing multi-rate Erlang-B blocking...... probabilities and their derivatives. Since the improvements are also simple, fast, direct, and stable, optimization and engineering methods based on a single-rate Erlang-B model can now be easily extended to emerging multimedia networks....
A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model
King, Gary
1989-01-01
This article introduces a new estimator for the analysis of two contemporaneously correlated endogenous event count variables. This seemingly unrelated Poisson regression model (SUPREME) estimator combines the efficiencies created by single equation Poisson regression model estimators and insights from "seemingly unrelated" linear regression models.
Evaluating the double Poisson generalized linear model.
Zou, Yaotian; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique
2013-10-01
The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the applicability of the double Poisson (DP) generalized linear model (GLM) for analyzing motor vehicle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion and (2) compare the performance of the DP GLM with the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit and theoretical soundness. The DP distribution has seldom been investigated and applied since its first introduction two decades ago. The hurdle for applying the DP is related to its normalizing constant (or multiplicative constant) which is not available in closed form. This study proposed a new method to approximate the normalizing constant of the DP with high accuracy and reliability. The DP GLM and COM-Poisson GLM were developed using two observed over-dispersed datasets and one observed under-dispersed dataset. The modeling results indicate that the DP GLM with its normalizing constant approximated by the new method can handle crash data characterized by over- and under-dispersion. Its performance is comparable to the COM-Poisson GLM in terms of goodness-of-fit (GOF), although COM-Poisson GLM provides a slightly better fit. For the over-dispersed data, the DP GLM performs similar to the NB GLM. Considering the fact that the DP GLM can be easily estimated with inexpensive computation and that it is simpler to interpret coefficients, it offers a flexible and efficient alternative for researchers to model count data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Affine Poisson Groups and WZW Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ctirad Klimcík
2008-01-01
Full Text Available We give a detailed description of a dynamical system which enjoys a Poisson-Lie symmetry with two non-isomorphic dual groups. The system is obtained by taking the q → ∞ limit of the q-deformed WZW model and the understanding of its symmetry structure results in uncovering an interesting duality of its exchange relations.
Erlang C Formula and its Use in the Call Centers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erik Chromy
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with calculation of important parameters of the Call Center using the Erlang C formula and then results are verified through simulations. Erlang C formula is defined as a function of two variables: the number of agents N and the load A. On the base of their values it is possible to determine the probability PC, that the incoming call will not be served immediately, but it will have to wait in the waiting queue. Simulations satisfy the assumption of Markov models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Moon Ho Lee
2008-01-01
Full Text Available A multiserver queueing model that does not have a buffer but has batch arrival of customers is considered. In contrast to the standard batch arrival, in which the entire batch arrives at the system during a single epoch, we assume that the customers of a batch (flow arrive individually in exponentially distributed times. The service time is exponentially distributed. Flows arrive according to a stationary Poisson arrival process. The flow size distribution is geometric. The number of flows that can be simultaneously admitted to the system is under control. The loss of any customer from an admitted flow, with a fixed probability, implies termination of the flow arrival. Analysis of the sojourn time and loss probability of an arbitrary flow is performed.
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.
Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.
Nonlocal Poisson-Fermi model for ionic solvent.
Xie, Dexuan; Liu, Jinn-Liang; Eisenberg, Bob
2016-07-01
We propose a nonlocal Poisson-Fermi model for ionic solvent that includes ion size effects and polarization correlations among water molecules in the calculation of electrostatic potential. It includes the previous Poisson-Fermi models as special cases, and its solution is the convolution of a solution of the corresponding nonlocal Poisson dielectric model with a Yukawa-like kernel function. The Fermi distribution is shown to be a set of optimal ionic concentration functions in the sense of minimizing an electrostatic potential free energy. Numerical results are reported to show the difference between a Poisson-Fermi solution and a corresponding Poisson solution.
A test of inflated zeros for Poisson regression models.
He, Hua; Zhang, Hui; Ye, Peng; Tang, Wan
2017-01-01
Excessive zeros are common in practice and may cause overdispersion and invalidate inference when fitting Poisson regression models. There is a large body of literature on zero-inflated Poisson models. However, methods for testing whether there are excessive zeros are less well developed. The Vuong test comparing a Poisson and a zero-inflated Poisson model is commonly applied in practice. However, the type I error of the test often deviates seriously from the nominal level, rendering serious doubts on the validity of the test in such applications. In this paper, we develop a new approach for testing inflated zeros under the Poisson model. Unlike the Vuong test for inflated zeros, our method does not require a zero-inflated Poisson model to perform the test. Simulation studies show that when compared with the Vuong test our approach not only better at controlling type I error rate, but also yield more power.
Poisson-Boltzmann-Nernst-Planck model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng Qiong; Wei Guowei
2011-01-01
The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model is based on a mean-field approximation of ion interactions and continuum descriptions of concentration and electrostatic potential. It provides qualitative explanation and increasingly quantitative predictions of experimental measurements for the ion transport problems in many areas such as semiconductor devices, nanofluidic systems, and biological systems, despite many limitations. While the PNP model gives a good prediction of the ion transport phenomenon for chemical, physical, and biological systems, the number of equations to be solved and the number of diffusion coefficient profiles to be determined for the calculation directly depend on the number of ion species in the system, since each ion species corresponds to one Nernst-Planck equation and one position-dependent diffusion coefficient profile. In a complex system with multiple ion species, the PNP can be computationally expensive and parameter demanding, as experimental measurements of diffusion coefficient profiles are generally quite limited for most confined regions such as ion channels, nanostructures and nanopores. We propose an alternative model to reduce number of Nernst-Planck equations to be solved in complex chemical and biological systems with multiple ion species by substituting Nernst-Planck equations with Boltzmann distributions of ion concentrations. As such, we solve the coupled Poisson-Boltzmann and Nernst-Planck (PBNP) equations, instead of the PNP equations. The proposed PBNP equations are derived from a total energy functional by using the variational principle. We design a number of computational techniques, including the Dirichlet to Neumann mapping, the matched interface and boundary, and relaxation based iterative procedure, to ensure efficient solution of the proposed PBNP equations. Two protein molecules, cytochrome c551 and Gramicidin A, are employed to validate the proposed model under a wide range of bulk ion concentrations and external
Poisson-Boltzmann-Nernst-Planck model.
Zheng, Qiong; Wei, Guo-Wei
2011-05-21
The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model is based on a mean-field approximation of ion interactions and continuum descriptions of concentration and electrostatic potential. It provides qualitative explanation and increasingly quantitative predictions of experimental measurements for the ion transport problems in many areas such as semiconductor devices, nanofluidic systems, and biological systems, despite many limitations. While the PNP model gives a good prediction of the ion transport phenomenon for chemical, physical, and biological systems, the number of equations to be solved and the number of diffusion coefficient profiles to be determined for the calculation directly depend on the number of ion species in the system, since each ion species corresponds to one Nernst-Planck equation and one position-dependent diffusion coefficient profile. In a complex system with multiple ion species, the PNP can be computationally expensive and parameter demanding, as experimental measurements of diffusion coefficient profiles are generally quite limited for most confined regions such as ion channels, nanostructures and nanopores. We propose an alternative model to reduce number of Nernst-Planck equations to be solved in complex chemical and biological systems with multiple ion species by substituting Nernst-Planck equations with Boltzmann distributions of ion concentrations. As such, we solve the coupled Poisson-Boltzmann and Nernst-Planck (PBNP) equations, instead of the PNP equations. The proposed PBNP equations are derived from a total energy functional by using the variational principle. We design a number of computational techniques, including the Dirichlet to Neumann mapping, the matched interface and boundary, and relaxation based iterative procedure, to ensure efficient solution of the proposed PBNP equations. Two protein molecules, cytochrome c551 and Gramicidin A, are employed to validate the proposed model under a wide range of bulk ion concentrations and external
Double generalized linear compound poisson models to insurance claims data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Daniel Arnfeldt; Bonat, Wagner Hugo
2017-01-01
This paper describes the specification, estimation and comparison of double generalized linear compound Poisson models based on the likelihood paradigm. The models are motivated by insurance applications, where the distribution of the response variable is composed by a degenerate distribution...... implementation and illustrate the application of double generalized linear compound Poisson models using a data set about car insurances....
Approximation of ruin probabilities via Erlangized scale mixtures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Peralta, Oscar; Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo; Xie, Wangyue
2018-01-01
In this paper, we extend an existing scheme for numerically calculating the probability of ruin of a classical Cramér–Lundbergreserve process having absolutely continuous but otherwise general claim size distributions. We employ a dense class of distributions that we denominate Erlangized scale...... a simple methodology for constructing a sequence of distributions having the form Π⋆G with the purpose of approximating the integrated tail distribution of the claim sizes. Then we adapt a recent result which delivers an explicit expression for the probability of ruin in the case that the claim size...... distribution is modeled as an Erlangized scale mixture. We provide simplified expressions for the approximation of the probability of ruin and construct explicit bounds for the error of approximation. We complement our results with a classical example where the claim sizes are heavy-tailed....
Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction
Erol, Hamza
2016-01-01
Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611
Development of an Erlang System Adaopted to Embedded Devices
Andersson, Fredrik; Bergström, Fabian
2011-01-01
Erlang is a powerful and robust language for writing massively parallel and distributed applications. With the introduction of multi-core ARM processors, the embedded market will be looking for ways of taking advantage of the newfound opportunities for parallelism. To support the development of embedded applications using Erlang we want to provide Erlang and Embedded developers with a run-time system suited for embedded devices. We have managed to shrink the disk size of the Erlang runtime sy...
2D Poisson sigma models with gauged vectorial supersymmetry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bonezzi, Roberto [Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Università di Bologna and INFN, Sezione di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, I-40126 Bologna (Italy); Departamento de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Andres Bello,Republica 220, Santiago (Chile); Sundell, Per [Departamento de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Andres Bello,Republica 220, Santiago (Chile); Torres-Gomez, Alexander [Departamento de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Andres Bello,Republica 220, Santiago (Chile); Instituto de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, Universidad Austral de Chile-UACh,Valdivia (Chile)
2015-08-12
In this note, we gauge the rigid vectorial supersymmetry of the two-dimensional Poisson sigma model presented in arXiv:1503.05625. We show that the consistency of the construction does not impose any further constraints on the differential Poisson algebra geometry than those required for the ungauged model. We conclude by proposing that the gauged model provides a first-quantized framework for higher spin gravity.
Network Traffic Monitoring Using Poisson Dynamic Linear Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Merl, D. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2011-05-09
In this article, we discuss an approach for network forensics using a class of nonstationary Poisson processes with embedded dynamic linear models. As a modeling strategy, the Poisson DLM (PoDLM) provides a very flexible framework for specifying structured effects that may influence the evolution of the underlying Poisson rate parameter, including diurnal and weekly usage patterns. We develop a novel particle learning algorithm for online smoothing and prediction for the PoDLM, and demonstrate the suitability of the approach to real-time deployment settings via a new application to computer network traffic monitoring.
Modified Regression Correlation Coefficient for Poisson Regression Model
Kaengthong, Nattacha; Domthong, Uthumporn
2017-09-01
This study gives attention to indicators in predictive power of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which are widely used; however, often having some restrictions. We are interested in regression correlation coefficient for a Poisson regression model. This is a measure of predictive power, and defined by the relationship between the dependent variable (Y) and the expected value of the dependent variable given the independent variables [E(Y|X)] for the Poisson regression model. The dependent variable is distributed as Poisson. The purpose of this research was modifying regression correlation coefficient for Poisson regression model. We also compare the proposed modified regression correlation coefficient with the traditional regression correlation coefficient in the case of two or more independent variables, and having multicollinearity in independent variables. The result shows that the proposed regression correlation coefficient is better than the traditional regression correlation coefficient based on Bias and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).
Improved Denoising via Poisson Mixture Modeling of Image Sensor Noise.
Zhang, Jiachao; Hirakawa, Keigo
2017-04-01
This paper describes a study aimed at comparing the real image sensor noise distribution to the models of noise often assumed in image denoising designs. A quantile analysis in pixel, wavelet transform, and variance stabilization domains reveal that the tails of Poisson, signal-dependent Gaussian, and Poisson-Gaussian models are too short to capture real sensor noise behavior. A new Poisson mixture noise model is proposed to correct the mismatch of tail behavior. Based on the fact that noise model mismatch results in image denoising that undersmoothes real sensor data, we propose a mixture of Poisson denoising method to remove the denoising artifacts without affecting image details, such as edge and textures. Experiments with real sensor data verify that denoising for real image sensor data is indeed improved by this new technique.
Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes
Mayo, W. T., Jr.
1976-01-01
Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.
Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.
Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I
2013-01-01
Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.
Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Agosto, Arianna; Cavaliere, Guiseppe; Kristensen, Dennis
We develop a class of Poisson autoregressive models with additional covariates (PARX) that can be used to model and forecast time series of counts. We establish the time series properties of the models, including conditions for stationarity and existence of moments. These results are in turn used...
Poisson-generalized gamma empirical Bayes model for disease ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In spatial disease mapping, the use of Bayesian models of estimation technique is becoming popular for smoothing relative risks estimates for disease mapping. The most common Bayesian conjugate model for disease mapping is the Poisson-Gamma Model (PG). To explore further the activity of smoothing of relative risk ...
Dilaton gravity, Poisson sigma models and loop quantum gravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bojowald, Martin; Reyes, Juan D
2009-01-01
Spherically symmetric gravity in Ashtekar variables coupled to Yang-Mills theory in two dimensions and its relation to dilaton gravity and Poisson sigma models are discussed. After introducing its loop quantization, quantum corrections for inverse triad components are shown to provide a consistent deformation without anomalies. The relation to Poisson sigma models provides a covariant action principle of the quantum-corrected theory with effective couplings. Results are also used to provide loop quantizations of spherically symmetric models in arbitrary D spacetime dimensions.
The coupling of Poisson sigma models to topological backgrounds
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosa, Dario [School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study,Seoul 02455 (Korea, Republic of)
2016-12-13
We extend the coupling to the topological backgrounds, recently worked out for the 2-dimensional BF-model, to the most general Poisson sigma models. The coupling involves the choice of a Casimir function on the target manifold and modifies the BRST transformations. This in turn induces a change in the BRST cohomology of the resulting theory. The observables of the coupled theory are analyzed and their geometrical interpretation is given. We finally couple the theory to 2-dimensional topological gravity: this is the first step to study a topological string theory in propagation on a Poisson manifold. As an application, we show that the gauge-fixed vectorial supersymmetry of the Poisson sigma models has a natural explanation in terms of the theory coupled to topological gravity.
Poisson sigma model with branes and hyperelliptic Riemann surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferrario, Andrea
2008-01-01
We derive the explicit form of the superpropagators in the presence of general boundary conditions (coisotropic branes) for the Poisson sigma model. This generalizes the results presented by Cattaneo and Felder [''A path integral approach to the Kontsevich quantization formula,'' Commun. Math. Phys. 212, 591 (2000)] and Cattaneo and Felder ['Coisotropic submanifolds in Poisson geometry and branes in the Poisson sigma model', Lett. Math. Phys. 69, 157 (2004)] for Kontsevich's angle function [Kontsevich, M., 'Deformation quantization of Poisson manifolds I', e-print arXiv:hep.th/0101170] used in the deformation quantization program of Poisson manifolds. The relevant superpropagators for n branes are defined as gauge fixed homotopy operators of a complex of differential forms on n sided polygons P n with particular ''alternating'' boundary conditions. In the presence of more than three branes we use first order Riemann theta functions with odd singular characteristics on the Jacobian variety of a hyperelliptic Riemann surface (canonical setting). In genus g the superpropagators present g zero mode contributions
An application of the Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Holloway, Jennifer P
2010-11-01
Full Text Available When modelling count data that comes in the form of a time series, the static Poisson regression and standard time series models are often not appropriate. A current study therefore involves the evaluation of several observation-driven and parameter...
Monitoring Poisson time series using multi-process models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Engebjerg, Malene Dahl Skov; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Kjær, Birgitte B.
aspects of health resource management may also be addressed. In this paper we center on the detection of outbreaks of infectious diseases. This is achieved by a multi-process Poisson state space model taking autocorrelation and overdispersion into account, which has been applied to a data set concerning...
A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Jeppe H; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus
2018-01-01
A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects that are ......A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects...... that mimicked the dynamics of receptive field selectivity as found in neurophysiological studies. Furthermore, the initial sensory response yielded theoretical hazard rate functions that closely resembled empirically estimated ones. Finally, supplied with a Naka-Rushton type contrast gain control, the model...
Critical elements on fitting the Bayesian multivariate Poisson Lognormal model
Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah binti
2015-10-01
Motivated by a problem on fitting multivariate models to traffic accident data, a detailed discussion of the Multivariate Poisson Lognormal (MPL) model is presented. This paper reveals three critical elements on fitting the MPL model: the setting of initial estimates, hyperparameters and tuning parameters. These issues have not been highlighted in the literature. Based on simulation studies conducted, we have shown that to use the Univariate Poisson Model (UPM) estimates as starting values, at least 20,000 iterations are needed to obtain reliable final estimates. We also illustrated the sensitivity of the specific hyperparameter, which if it is not given extra attention, may affect the final estimates. The last issue is regarding the tuning parameters where they depend on the acceptance rate. Finally, a heuristic algorithm to fit the MPL model is presented. This acts as a guide to ensure that the model works satisfactorily given any data set.
2D sigma models and differential Poisson algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arias, Cesar; Boulanger, Nicolas; Sundell, Per; Torres-Gomez, Alexander
2015-01-01
We construct a two-dimensional topological sigma model whose target space is endowed with a Poisson algebra for differential forms. The model consists of an equal number of bosonic and fermionic fields of worldsheet form degrees zero and one. The action is built using exterior products and derivatives, without any reference to a worldsheet metric, and is of the covariant Hamiltonian form. The equations of motion define a universally Cartan integrable system. In addition to gauge symmetries, the model has one rigid nilpotent supersymmetry corresponding to the target space de Rham operator. The rigid and local symmetries of the action, respectively, are equivalent to the Poisson bracket being compatible with the de Rham operator and obeying graded Jacobi identities. We propose that perturbative quantization of the model yields a covariantized differential star product algebra of Kontsevich type. We comment on the resemblance to the topological A model.
Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.
Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer
2014-02-01
In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo
2013-01-01
We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retar...... solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households....
A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification.
Christensen, Jeppe H; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus; Kyllingsbæk, Søren
2018-04-30
A physiologically based nonhomogeneous Poisson counter model of visual identification is presented. The model was developed in the framework of a Theory of Visual Attention (Bundesen, 1990; Kyllingsbæk, Markussen, & Bundesen, 2012) and meant for modeling visual identification of objects that are mutually confusable and hard to see. The model assumes that the visual system's initial sensory response consists in tentative visual categorizations, which are accumulated by leaky integration of both transient and sustained components comparable with those found in spike density patterns of early sensory neurons. The sensory response (tentative categorizations) feeds independent Poisson counters, each of which accumulates tentative object categorizations of a particular type to guide overt identification performance. We tested the model's ability to predict the effect of stimulus duration on observed distributions of responses in a nonspeeded (pure accuracy) identification task with eight response alternatives. The time courses of correct and erroneous categorizations were well accounted for when the event-rates of competing Poisson counters were allowed to vary independently over time in a way that mimicked the dynamics of receptive field selectivity as found in neurophysiological studies. Furthermore, the initial sensory response yielded theoretical hazard rate functions that closely resembled empirically estimated ones. Finally, supplied with a Naka-Rushton type contrast gain control, the model provided an explanation for Bloch's law. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
Modeling environmental noise exceedances using non-homogeneous Poisson processes.
Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Barrios, Juan M; Rodrigues, Eliane R
2014-10-01
In this work a non-homogeneous Poisson model is considered to study noise exposure. The Poisson process, counting the number of times that a sound level surpasses a threshold, is used to estimate the probability that a population is exposed to high levels of noise a certain number of times in a given time interval. The rate function of the Poisson process is assumed to be of a Weibull type. The presented model is applied to community noise data from Messina, Sicily (Italy). Four sets of data are used to estimate the parameters involved in the model. After the estimation and tuning are made, a way of estimating the probability that an environmental noise threshold is exceeded a certain number of times in a given time interval is presented. This estimation can be very useful in the study of noise exposure of a population and also to predict, given the current behavior of the data, the probability of occurrence of high levels of noise in the near future. One of the most important features of the model is that it implicitly takes into account different noise sources, which need to be treated separately when using usual models.
Differential expression analysis for RNAseq using Poisson mixed models.
Sun, Shiquan; Hood, Michelle; Scott, Laura; Peng, Qinke; Mukherjee, Sayan; Tung, Jenny; Zhou, Xiang
2017-06-20
Identifying differentially expressed (DE) genes from RNA sequencing (RNAseq) studies is among the most common analyses in genomics. However, RNAseq DE analysis presents several statistical and computational challenges, including over-dispersed read counts and, in some settings, sample non-independence. Previous count-based methods rely on simple hierarchical Poisson models (e.g. negative binomial) to model independent over-dispersion, but do not account for sample non-independence due to relatedness, population structure and/or hidden confounders. Here, we present a Poisson mixed model with two random effects terms that account for both independent over-dispersion and sample non-independence. We also develop a scalable sampling-based inference algorithm using a latent variable representation of the Poisson distribution. With simulations, we show that our method properly controls for type I error and is generally more powerful than other widely used approaches, except in small samples (n <15) with other unfavorable properties (e.g. small effect sizes). We also apply our method to three real datasets that contain related individuals, population stratification or hidden confounders. Our results show that our method increases power in all three data compared to other approaches, though the power gain is smallest in the smallest sample (n = 6). Our method is implemented in MACAU, freely available at www.xzlab.org/software.html. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
A Generalized QMRA Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.
Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie
2016-10-01
Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is widely accepted for characterizing the microbial risks associated with food, water, and wastewater. Single-hit dose-response models are the most commonly used dose-response models in QMRA. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, a three-parameter generalized QMRA beta-Poisson dose-response model, PI(d|α,β,r*), is proposed in which the minimum number of organisms required for causing infection, K min , is not fixed, but a random variable following a geometric distribution with parameter 0Poisson model, PI(d|α,β), is a special case of the generalized model with K min = 1 (which implies r*=1). The generalized beta-Poisson model is based on a conceptual model with greater detail in the dose-response mechanism. Since a maximum likelihood solution is not easily available, a likelihood-free approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm is employed for parameter estimation. By fitting the generalized model to four experimental data sets from the literature, this study reveals that the posterior median r* estimates produced fall short of meeting the required condition of r* = 1 for single-hit assumption. However, three out of four data sets fitted by the generalized models could not achieve an improvement in goodness of fit. These combined results imply that, at least in some cases, a single-hit assumption for characterizing the dose-response process may not be appropriate, but that the more complex models may be difficult to support especially if the sample size is small. The three-parameter generalized model provides a possibility to investigate the mechanism of a dose-response process in greater detail than is possible under a single-hit model. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
Collision prediction models using multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression.
El-Basyouny, Karim; Sayed, Tarek
2009-07-01
This paper advocates the use of multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression to develop models for collision count data. The MVPLN approach presents an opportunity to incorporate the correlations across collision severity levels and their influence on safety analyses. The paper introduces a new multivariate hazardous location identification technique, which generalizes the univariate posterior probability of excess that has been commonly proposed and applied in the literature. In addition, the paper presents an alternative approach for quantifying the effect of the multivariate structure on the precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN approach is compared with the independent (separate) univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with respect to model inference, goodness-of-fit, identification of hot spots and precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN is modeled using the WinBUGS platform which facilitates computation of posterior distributions as well as providing a goodness-of-fit measure for model comparisons. The results indicate that the estimates of the extra Poisson variation parameters were considerably smaller under MVPLN leading to higher precision. The improvement in precision is due mainly to the fact that MVPLN accounts for the correlation between the latent variables representing property damage only (PDO) and injuries plus fatalities (I+F). This correlation was estimated at 0.758, which is highly significant, suggesting that higher PDO rates are associated with higher I+F rates, as the collision likelihood for both types is likely to rise due to similar deficiencies in roadway design and/or other unobserved factors. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the MVPLN model provided a superior fit than the independent univariate models. The multivariate hazardous location identification results demonstrated that some hazardous locations could be overlooked if the analysis was restricted to the univariate models.
An Erlang Implementation of Multiparty Session Actors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simon Fowler
2016-08-01
Full Text Available By requiring co-ordination to take place using explicit message passing instead of relying on shared memory, actor-based programming languages have been shown to be effective tools for building reliable and fault-tolerant distributed systems. Although naturally communication-centric, communication patterns in actor-based applications remain informally specified, meaning that errors in communication are detected late, if at all. Multiparty session types are a formalism to describe, at a global level, the interactions between multiple communicating entities. This article describes the implementation of a prototype framework for monitoring Erlang/OTP gen_server applications against multiparty session types, showing how previous work on multiparty session actors can be adapted to a purely actor-based language, and how monitor violations and termination of session participants can be reported in line with the Erlang mantra of "let it fail". Finally, the framework is used to implement two case studies: an adaptation of a freely-available DNS server, and a chat server.
Identifying traffic accident black spots with Poisson-Tweedie models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Debrabant, Birgit; Halekoh, Ulrich; Bonat, Wagner Hugo
2018-01-01
This paper aims at the identification of black spots for traffic accidents, i.e. locations with accident counts beyond what is usual for similar locations, using spatially and temporally aggregated hospital records from Funen, Denmark. Specifically, we apply an autoregressive Poisson-Tweedie model...... considered calendar years and calculated by simulations a probability of p=0.03 for these to be chance findings. Altogether, our results recommend these sites for further investigation and suggest that our simple approach could play a role in future area based traffic accident prevention planning....
On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.
Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua
2013-09-01
Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yeh, R.H.
1997-01-01
This paper investigates state-age-dependent maintenance policies for multistate deteriorating systems with Erlang sojourn time distributions. Since Erlang distributions are serial combinations of exponential phases, the deteriorating process can be modeled by a multi-phase Markovian model and hence easily analyzed. Based on the Markovian model, the optimal phase-dependent inspection and replacement policy can be obtained by using a policy improvement algorithm. However, since phases are fictitious and can not be identified by inspections, two procedures are developed to construct state-age-dependent policies based on the optimal phase-dependent policy. The properties of the constructed state-age-dependent policies are further investigated and the performance of the policy is evaluated through a numerical example
Comparing Multicomponent Erlang Distribution and Lévy Distribution of Particle Transverse Momentums
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Hua-Rong; Chen, Ya-Hui; Gao, Li-Na; Liu, Fu-Hu
2014-01-01
The transverse momentum spectrums of final-state products produced in nucleus-nucleus and proton-proton collisions at different center-of-mass energies are analyzed by using a multicomponent Erlang distribution and the Lévy distribution. The results calculated by the two models are found in most cases to be in agreement with experimental data from the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The multicomponent Erlang distribution that resulted from a multisource thermal model seems to give a better description as compared with the Lévy distribution. The temperature parameters of interacting system corresponding to different types of final-state products are obtained. Light particles correspond to a low temperature emission, and heavy particles correspond to a high temperature emission. Extracted temperature from central collisions is higher than that from peripheral collisions
Lindley frailty model for a class of compound Poisson processes
Kadilar, Gamze Özel; Ata, Nihal
2013-10-01
The Lindley distribution gain importance in survival analysis for the similarity of exponential distribution and allowance for the different shapes of hazard function. Frailty models provide an alternative to proportional hazards model where misspecified or omitted covariates are described by an unobservable random variable. Despite of the distribution of the frailty is generally assumed to be continuous, it is appropriate to consider discrete frailty distributions In some circumstances. In this paper, frailty models with discrete compound Poisson process for the Lindley distributed failure time are introduced. Survival functions are derived and maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the parameters are studied. Then, the fit of the models to the earthquake data set of Turkey are examined.
Erlang Programming A Concurrent Approach to Software Development
Cesarini, Francesco
2009-01-01
This book offers you an in-depth explanation of Erlang, a programming language ideal for any situation where concurrency, fault-tolerance, and fast response is essential. You'll learn how to write complex concurrent programs in this language, regardless of your programming background or experience. Erlang Programming focuses on the language's syntax and semantics, and explains pattern matching, proper lists, recursion, debugging, networking, and concurrency, with exercises at the end of each chapter.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fokianos, Konstantinos; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Tjøstheim, Dag
This paper considers geometric ergodicity and likelihood based inference for linear and nonlinear Poisson autoregressions. In the linear case the conditional mean is linked linearly to its past values as well as the observed values of the Poisson process. This also applies to the conditional...... variance, implying an interpretation as an integer valued GARCH process. In a nonlinear conditional Poisson model, the conditional mean is a nonlinear function of its past values and a nonlinear function of past observations. As a particular example an exponential autoregressive Poisson model for time...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fokianos, Konstantinos; Rahbæk, Anders; Tjøstheim, Dag
This paper considers geometric ergodicity and likelihood based inference for linear and nonlinear Poisson autoregressions. In the linear case the conditional mean is linked linearly to its past values as well as the observed values of the Poisson process. This also applies to the conditional...... variance, making an interpretation as an integer valued GARCH process possible. In a nonlinear conditional Poisson model, the conditional mean is a nonlinear function of its past values and a nonlinear function of past observations. As a particular example an exponential autoregressive Poisson model...
The Extended Erlang-Truncated Exponential distribution: Properties and application to rainfall data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
I.E. Okorie
2017-06-01
Full Text Available The Erlang-Truncated Exponential ETE distribution is modified and the new lifetime distribution is called the Extended Erlang-Truncated Exponential EETE distribution. Some statistical and reliability properties of the new distribution are given and the method of maximum likelihood estimate was proposed for estimating the model parameters. The usefulness and flexibility of the EETE distribution was illustrated with an uncensored data set and its fit was compared with that of the ETE and three other three-parameter distributions. Results based on the minimized log-likelihood (−ℓˆ, Akaike information criterion (AIC, Bayesian information criterion (BIC and the generalized Cramér–von Mises W⋆ statistics shows that the EETE distribution provides a more reasonable fit than the one based on the other competing distributions. Keywords: Mathematics, Applied mathematics
The Extended Erlang-Truncated Exponential distribution: Properties and application to rainfall data.
Okorie, I E; Akpanta, A C; Ohakwe, J; Chikezie, D C
2017-06-01
The Erlang-Truncated Exponential ETE distribution is modified and the new lifetime distribution is called the Extended Erlang-Truncated Exponential EETE distribution. Some statistical and reliability properties of the new distribution are given and the method of maximum likelihood estimate was proposed for estimating the model parameters. The usefulness and flexibility of the EETE distribution was illustrated with an uncensored data set and its fit was compared with that of the ETE and three other three-parameter distributions. Results based on the minimized log-likelihood ([Formula: see text]), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the generalized Cramér-von Mises [Formula: see text] statistics shows that the EETE distribution provides a more reasonable fit than the one based on the other competing distributions.
The Jackson Queueing Network Model Built Using Poisson Measures. Application To A Bank Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ciuiu Daniel
2014-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper we will build a bank model using Poisson measures and Jackson queueing networks. We take into account the relationship between the Poisson and the exponential distributions, and we consider for each credit/deposit type a node where shocks are modeled as the compound Poisson processes. The transmissions of the shocks are modeled as moving between nodes in Jackson queueing networks, the external shocks are modeled as external arrivals, and the absorption of shocks as departures from the network.
Modeling the number of car theft using Poisson regression
Zulkifli, Malina; Ling, Agnes Beh Yen; Kasim, Maznah Mat; Ismail, Noriszura
2016-10-01
Regression analysis is the most popular statistical methods used to express the relationship between the variables of response with the covariates. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors that influence the number of car theft using Poisson regression model. This paper will focus on the number of car thefts that occurred in districts in Peninsular Malaysia. There are two groups of factor that have been considered, namely district descriptive factors and socio and demographic factors. The result of the study showed that Bumiputera composition, Chinese composition, Other ethnic composition, foreign migration, number of residence with the age between 25 to 64, number of employed person and number of unemployed person are the most influence factors that affect the car theft cases. These information are very useful for the law enforcement department, insurance company and car owners in order to reduce and limiting the car theft cases in Peninsular Malaysia.
Estimation of a Non-homogeneous Poisson Model: An Empirical ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This article aims at applying the Nonhomogeneous Poisson process to trends of economic development. For this purpose, a modified Nonhomogeneous Poisson process is derived when the intensity rate is considered as a solution of stochastic differential equation which satisfies the geometric Brownian motion. The mean ...
Electroneutral models for dynamic Poisson-Nernst-Planck systems
Song, Zilong; Cao, Xiulei; Huang, Huaxiong
2018-01-01
The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) system is a standard model for describing ion transport. In many applications, e.g., ions in biological tissues, the presence of thin boundary layers poses both modeling and computational challenges. In this paper, we derive simplified electroneutral (EN) models where the thin boundary layers are replaced by effective boundary conditions. There are two major advantages of EN models. First, it is much cheaper to solve them numerically. Second, EN models are easier to deal with compared to the original PNP system; therefore, it would also be easier to derive macroscopic models for cellular structures using EN models. Even though the approach used here is applicable to higher-dimensional cases, this paper mainly focuses on the one-dimensional system, including the general multi-ion case. Using systematic asymptotic analysis, we derive a variety of effective boundary conditions directly applicable to the EN system for the bulk region. This EN system can be solved directly and efficiently without computing the solution in the boundary layer. The derivation is based on matched asymptotics, and the key idea is to bring back higher-order contributions into the effective boundary conditions. For Dirichlet boundary conditions, the higher-order terms can be neglected and the classical results (continuity of electrochemical potential) are recovered. For flux boundary conditions, higher-order terms account for the accumulation of ions in boundary layer and neglecting them leads to physically incorrect solutions. To validate the EN model, numerical computations are carried out for several examples. Our results show that solving the EN model is much more efficient than the original PNP system. Implemented with the Hodgkin-Huxley model, the computational time for solving the EN model is significantly reduced without sacrificing the accuracy of the solution due to the fact that it allows for relatively large mesh and time-step sizes.
Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Guikema, Seth D
2010-08-01
The objective of this article is to evaluate the performance of the COM-Poisson GLM for analyzing crash data exhibiting underdispersion (when conditional on the mean). The COM-Poisson distribution, originally developed in 1962, has recently been reintroduced by statisticians for analyzing count data subjected to either over- or underdispersion. Over the last year, the COM-Poisson GLM has been evaluated in the context of crash data analysis and it has been shown that the model performs as well as the Poisson-gamma model for crash data exhibiting overdispersion. To accomplish the objective of this study, several COM-Poisson models were estimated using crash data collected at 162 railway-highway crossings in South Korea between 1998 and 2002. This data set has been shown to exhibit underdispersion when models linking crash data to various explanatory variables are estimated. The modeling results were compared to those produced from the Poisson and gamma probability models documented in a previous published study. The results of this research show that the COM-Poisson GLM can handle crash data when the modeling output shows signs of underdispersion. Finally, they also show that the model proposed in this study provides better statistical performance than the gamma probability and the traditional Poisson models, at least for this data set.
The Rasch Poisson counts model for incomplete data : An application of the EM algorithm
Jansen, G.G.H.
Rasch's Poisson counts model is a latent trait model for the situation in which K tests are administered to N examinees and the test score is a count [e.g., the repeated occurrence of some event, such as the number of items completed or the number of items answered (in)correctly]. The Rasch Poisson
Characterizing the performance of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson generalized linear model.
Francis, Royce A; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Guikema, Seth D; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; LaRocca, Sarah
2012-01-01
Count data are pervasive in many areas of risk analysis; deaths, adverse health outcomes, infrastructure system failures, and traffic accidents are all recorded as count events, for example. Risk analysts often wish to estimate the probability distribution for the number of discrete events as part of doing a risk assessment. Traditional count data regression models of the type often used in risk assessment for this problem suffer from limitations due to the assumed variance structure. A more flexible model based on the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution was recently proposed, a model that has the potential to overcome the limitations of the traditional model. However, the statistical performance of this new model has not yet been fully characterized. This article assesses the performance of a maximum likelihood estimation method for fitting the COM-Poisson generalized linear model (GLM). The objectives of this article are to (1) characterize the parameter estimation accuracy of the MLE implementation of the COM-Poisson GLM, and (2) estimate the prediction accuracy of the COM-Poisson GLM using simulated data sets. The results of the study indicate that the COM-Poisson GLM is flexible enough to model under-, equi-, and overdispersed data sets with different sample mean values. The results also show that the COM-Poisson GLM yields accurate parameter estimates. The COM-Poisson GLM provides a promising and flexible approach for performing count data regression. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
The Lie-Poisson structure of integrable classical non-linear sigma models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bordemann, M.; Forger, M.; Schaeper, U.; Laartz, J.
1993-01-01
The canonical structure of classical non-linear sigma models on Riemannian symmetric spaces, which constitute the most general class of classical non-linear sigma models known to be integrable, is shown to be governed by a fundamental Poisson bracket relation that fits into the r-s-matrix formalism for non-ultralocal integrable models first discussed by Maillet. The matrices r and s are computed explicitly and, being field dependent, satisfy fundamental Poisson bracket relations of their own, which can be expressed in terms of a new numerical matrix c. It is proposed that all these Poisson brackets taken together are representation conditions for a new kind of algebra which, for this class of models, replaces the classical Yang-Baxter algebra governing the canonical structure of ultralocal models. The Poisson brackets for the transition matrices are also computed, and the notorious regularization problem associated with the definition of the Poisson brackets for the monodromy matrices is discussed. (orig.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fokianos, Konstantinos; Rahbek, Anders Christian; Tjøstheim, Dag
2009-01-01
In this article we consider geometric ergodicity and likelihood-based inference for linear and nonlinear Poisson autoregression. In the linear case, the conditional mean is linked linearly to its past values, as well as to the observed values of the Poisson process. This also applies...... to the conditional variance, making possible interpretation as an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. In a nonlinear conditional Poisson model, the conditional mean is a nonlinear function of its past values and past observations. As a particular example, we consider...... an exponential autoregressive Poisson model for time series. Under geometric ergodicity, the maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be asymptotically Gaussian in the linear model. In addition, we provide a consistent estimator of their asymptotic covariance matrix. Our approach to verifying geometric...
Application of the Hyper-Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes.
Khazraee, S Hadi; Sáez-Castillo, Antonio Jose; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy; Lord, Dominique
2015-05-01
The hyper-Poisson distribution can handle both over- and underdispersion, and its generalized linear model formulation allows the dispersion of the distribution to be observation-specific and dependent on model covariates. This study's objective is to examine the potential applicability of a newly proposed generalized linear model framework for the hyper-Poisson distribution in analyzing motor vehicle crash count data. The hyper-Poisson generalized linear model was first fitted to intersection crash data from Toronto, characterized by overdispersion, and then to crash data from railway-highway crossings in Korea, characterized by underdispersion. The results of this study are promising. When fitted to the Toronto data set, the goodness-of-fit measures indicated that the hyper-Poisson model with a variable dispersion parameter provided a statistical fit as good as the traditional negative binomial model. The hyper-Poisson model was also successful in handling the underdispersed data from Korea; the model performed as well as the gamma probability model and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model previously developed for the same data set. The advantages of the hyper-Poisson model studied in this article are noteworthy. Unlike the negative binomial model, which has difficulties in handling underdispersed data, the hyper-Poisson model can handle both over- and underdispersed crash data. Although not a major issue for the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson model, the effect of each variable on the expected mean of crashes is easily interpretable in the case of this new model. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.
Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko
2017-11-01
Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.
The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments
Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.
2008-01-01
Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…
Application of zero-inflated poisson mixed models in prognostic factors of hepatitis C.
Akbarzadeh Baghban, Alireza; Pourhoseingholi, Asma; Zayeri, Farid; Jafari, Ali Akbar; Alavian, Seyed Moayed
2013-01-01
In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005-2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.
Poisson statistics application in modelling of neutron detection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avdic, S.; Marinkovic, P.
1996-01-01
The main purpose of this study is taking into account statistical analysis of the experimental data which were measured by 3 He neutron spectrometer. The unfolding method based on principle of maximum likelihood incorporates the Poisson approximation of counting statistics applied (aithor)
Conditional Poisson models: a flexible alternative to conditional logistic case cross-over analysis.
Armstrong, Ben G; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tobias, Aurelio
2014-11-24
The time stratified case cross-over approach is a popular alternative to conventional time series regression for analysing associations between time series of environmental exposures (air pollution, weather) and counts of health outcomes. These are almost always analyzed using conditional logistic regression on data expanded to case-control (case crossover) format, but this has some limitations. In particular adjusting for overdispersion and auto-correlation in the counts is not possible. It has been established that a Poisson model for counts with stratum indicators gives identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression and does not have these limitations, but it is little used, probably because of the overheads in estimating many stratum parameters. The conditional Poisson model avoids estimating stratum parameters by conditioning on the total event count in each stratum, thus simplifying the computing and increasing the number of strata for which fitting is feasible compared with the standard unconditional Poisson model. Unlike the conditional logistic model, the conditional Poisson model does not require expanding the data, and can adjust for overdispersion and auto-correlation. It is available in Stata, R, and other packages. By applying to some real data and using simulations, we demonstrate that conditional Poisson models were simpler to code and shorter to run than are conditional logistic analyses and can be fitted to larger data sets than possible with standard Poisson models. Allowing for overdispersion or autocorrelation was possible with the conditional Poisson model but when not required this model gave identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression. Conditional Poisson regression models provide an alternative to case crossover analysis of stratified time series data with some advantages. The conditional Poisson model can also be used in other contexts in which primary control for confounding is by fine
[Application of detecting and taking overdispersion into account in Poisson regression model].
Bouche, G; Lepage, B; Migeot, V; Ingrand, P
2009-08-01
Researchers often use the Poisson regression model to analyze count data. Overdispersion can occur when a Poisson regression model is used, resulting in an underestimation of variance of the regression model parameters. Our objective was to take overdispersion into account and assess its impact with an illustration based on the data of a study investigating the relationship between use of the Internet to seek health information and number of primary care consultations. Three methods, overdispersed Poisson, a robust estimator, and negative binomial regression, were performed to take overdispersion into account in explaining variation in the number (Y) of primary care consultations. We tested overdispersion in the Poisson regression model using the ratio of the sum of Pearson residuals over the number of degrees of freedom (chi(2)/df). We then fitted the three models and compared parameter estimation to the estimations given by Poisson regression model. Variance of the number of primary care consultations (Var[Y]=21.03) was greater than the mean (E[Y]=5.93) and the chi(2)/df ratio was 3.26, which confirmed overdispersion. Standard errors of the parameters varied greatly between the Poisson regression model and the three other regression models. Interpretation of estimates from two variables (using the Internet to seek health information and single parent family) would have changed according to the model retained, with significant levels of 0.06 and 0.002 (Poisson), 0.29 and 0.09 (overdispersed Poisson), 0.29 and 0.13 (use of a robust estimator) and 0.45 and 0.13 (negative binomial) respectively. Different methods exist to solve the problem of underestimating variance in the Poisson regression model when overdispersion is present. The negative binomial regression model seems to be particularly accurate because of its theorical distribution ; in addition this regression is easy to perform with ordinary statistical software packages.
A generalized right truncated bivariate Poisson regression model with applications to health data.
Islam, M Ataharul; Chowdhury, Rafiqul I
2017-01-01
A generalized right truncated bivariate Poisson regression model is proposed in this paper. Estimation and tests for goodness of fit and over or under dispersion are illustrated for both untruncated and right truncated bivariate Poisson regression models using marginal-conditional approach. Estimation and test procedures are illustrated for bivariate Poisson regression models with applications to Health and Retirement Study data on number of health conditions and the number of health care services utilized. The proposed test statistics are easy to compute and it is evident from the results that the models fit the data very well. A comparison between the right truncated and untruncated bivariate Poisson regression models using the test for nonnested models clearly shows that the truncated model performs significantly better than the untruncated model.
On terminating Poisson processes in some shock models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Finkelstein, Maxim, E-mail: FinkelMI@ufs.ac.z [Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein (South Africa); Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock (Germany); Marais, Francois, E-mail: fmarais@csc.co [CSC, Cape Town (South Africa)
2010-08-15
A system subject to a point process of shocks is considered. Shocks occur in accordance with the homogeneous Poisson process. Different criteria of system failure (termination) are discussed and the corresponding probabilities of failure (accident)-free performance are derived. The described analytical approach is based on deriving integral equations for each setting and solving these equations through the Laplace transform. Some approximations are analyzed and further generalizations and applications are discussed.
On terminating Poisson processes in some shock models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Finkelstein, Maxim; Marais, Francois
2010-01-01
A system subject to a point process of shocks is considered. Shocks occur in accordance with the homogeneous Poisson process. Different criteria of system failure (termination) are discussed and the corresponding probabilities of failure (accident)-free performance are derived. The described analytical approach is based on deriving integral equations for each setting and solving these equations through the Laplace transform. Some approximations are analyzed and further generalizations and applications are discussed.
Fractional poisson--a simple dose-response model for human norovirus.
Messner, Michael J; Berger, Philip; Nappier, Sharon P
2014-10-01
This study utilizes old and new Norovirus (NoV) human challenge data to model the dose-response relationship for human NoV infection. The combined data set is used to update estimates from a previously published beta-Poisson dose-response model that includes parameters for virus aggregation and for a beta-distribution that describes variable susceptibility among hosts. The quality of the beta-Poisson model is examined and a simpler model is proposed. The new model (fractional Poisson) characterizes hosts as either perfectly susceptible or perfectly immune, requiring a single parameter (the fraction of perfectly susceptible hosts) in place of the two-parameter beta-distribution. A second parameter is included to account for virus aggregation in the same fashion as it is added to the beta-Poisson model. Infection probability is simply the product of the probability of nonzero exposure (at least one virus or aggregate is ingested) and the fraction of susceptible hosts. The model is computationally simple and appears to be well suited to the data from the NoV human challenge studies. The model's deviance is similar to that of the beta-Poisson, but with one parameter, rather than two. As a result, the Akaike information criterion favors the fractional Poisson over the beta-Poisson model. At low, environmentally relevant exposure levels (Poisson model; however, caution is advised because no subjects were challenged at such a low dose. New low-dose data would be of great value to further clarify the NoV dose-response relationship and to support improved risk assessment for environmentally relevant exposures. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.
Towards an Erlang formula for multiclass networks
Jonckheere, M.; Mairesse, J.
2010-01-01
Consider a multiclass stochastic network with state-dependent service rates and arrival rates describing bandwidth-sharing mechanisms as well as admission control and/or load balancing schemes. Given Poisson arrival and exponential service requirements, the number of customers in the network evolves
Modeling animal-vehicle collisions using diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression.
Lao, Yunteng; Wu, Yao-Jan; Corey, Jonathan; Wang, Yinhai
2011-01-01
Two types of animal-vehicle collision (AVC) data are commonly adopted for AVC-related risk analysis research: reported AVC data and carcass removal data. One issue with these two data sets is that they were found to have significant discrepancies by previous studies. In order to model these two types of data together and provide a better understanding of highway AVCs, this study adopts a diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson regression method, an inflated version of bivariate Poisson regression model, to fit the reported AVC and carcass removal data sets collected in Washington State during 2002-2006. The diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model not only can model paired data with correlation, but also handle under- or over-dispersed data sets as well. Compared with three other types of models, double Poisson, bivariate Poisson, and zero-inflated double Poisson, the diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model demonstrates its capability of fitting two data sets with remarkable overlapping portions resulting from the same stochastic process. Therefore, the diagonal inflated bivariate Poisson model provides researchers a new approach to investigating AVCs from a different perspective involving the three distribution parameters (λ(1), λ(2) and λ(3)). The modeling results show the impacts of traffic elements, geometric design and geographic characteristics on the occurrences of both reported AVC and carcass removal data. It is found that the increase of some associated factors, such as speed limit, annual average daily traffic, and shoulder width, will increase the numbers of reported AVCs and carcass removals. Conversely, the presence of some geometric factors, such as rolling and mountainous terrain, will decrease the number of reported AVCs. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science
Li, Shilong; Yin, Chuancun; Zhao, Xia; Dai, Hongshuai
2017-01-01
Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigat...
Log-normal frailty models fitted as Poisson generalized linear mixed models.
Hirsch, Katharina; Wienke, Andreas; Kuss, Oliver
2016-12-01
The equivalence of a survival model with a piecewise constant baseline hazard function and a Poisson regression model has been known since decades. As shown in recent studies, this equivalence carries over to clustered survival data: A frailty model with a log-normal frailty term can be interpreted and estimated as a generalized linear mixed model with a binary response, a Poisson likelihood, and a specific offset. Proceeding this way, statistical theory and software for generalized linear mixed models are readily available for fitting frailty models. This gain in flexibility comes at the small price of (1) having to fix the number of pieces for the baseline hazard in advance and (2) having to "explode" the data set by the number of pieces. In this paper we extend the simulations of former studies by using a more realistic baseline hazard (Gompertz) and by comparing the model under consideration with competing models. Furthermore, the SAS macro %PCFrailty is introduced to apply the Poisson generalized linear mixed approach to frailty models. The simulations show good results for the shared frailty model. Our new %PCFrailty macro provides proper estimates, especially in case of 4 events per piece. The suggested Poisson generalized linear mixed approach for log-normal frailty models based on the %PCFrailty macro provides several advantages in the analysis of clustered survival data with respect to more flexible modelling of fixed and random effects, exact (in the sense of non-approximate) maximum likelihood estimation, and standard errors and different types of confidence intervals for all variance parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lefkimmiatis, Stamatios; Maragos, Petros; Papandreou, George
2009-08-01
We present an improved statistical model for analyzing Poisson processes, with applications to photon-limited imaging. We build on previous work, adopting a multiscale representation of the Poisson process in which the ratios of the underlying Poisson intensities (rates) in adjacent scales are modeled as mixtures of conjugate parametric distributions. Our main contributions include: 1) a rigorous and robust regularized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum-likelihood estimation of the rate-ratio density parameters directly from the noisy observed Poisson data (counts); 2) extension of the method to work under a multiscale hidden Markov tree model (HMT) which couples the mixture label assignments in consecutive scales, thus modeling interscale coefficient dependencies in the vicinity of image edges; 3) exploration of a 2-D recursive quad-tree image representation, involving Dirichlet-mixture rate-ratio densities, instead of the conventional separable binary-tree image representation involving beta-mixture rate-ratio densities; and 4) a novel multiscale image representation, which we term Poisson-Haar decomposition, that better models the image edge structure, thus yielding improved performance. Experimental results on standard images with artificially simulated Poisson noise and on real photon-limited images demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed techniques.
The Kramers-Kronig relations for usual and anomalous Poisson-Nernst-Planck models
Evangelista, Luiz Roberto; Lenzi, Ervin Kaminski; Barbero, Giovanni
2013-01-01
The consistency of the frequency response predicted by a class of electrochemical impedance expressions is analytically checked by invoking the Kramers-Kronig (KK) relations. These expressions are obtained in the context of Poisson-Nernst-Planck usual (PNP) or anomalous (PNPA) diffusional models that satisfy Poisson's equation in a finite-length situation. The theoretical results, besides being successful in interpreting experimental data, are also shown to obey the KK relations when these re...
The Kramers-Kronig relations for usual and anomalous Poisson-Nernst-Planck models.
Evangelista, Luiz Roberto; Lenzi, Ervin Kaminski; Barbero, Giovanni
2013-11-20
The consistency of the frequency response predicted by a class of electrochemical impedance expressions is analytically checked by invoking the Kramers-Kronig (KK) relations. These expressions are obtained in the context of Poisson-Nernst-Planck usual or anomalous diffusional models that satisfy Poisson's equation in a finite length situation. The theoretical results, besides being successful in interpreting experimental data, are also shown to obey the KK relations when these relations are modified accordingly.
Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.
Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram
2017-02-01
In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rodrigues-Motta Mariana
2008-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Dark spots in the fleece area are often associated with dark fibres in wool, which limits its competitiveness with other textile fibres. Field data from a sheep experiment in Uruguay revealed an excess number of zeros for dark spots. We compared the performance of four Poisson and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP models under four simulation scenarios. All models performed reasonably well under the same scenario for which the data were simulated. The deviance information criterion favoured a Poisson model with residual, while the ZIP model with a residual gave estimates closer to their true values under all simulation scenarios. Both Poisson and ZIP models with an error term at the regression level performed better than their counterparts without such an error. Field data from Corriedale sheep were analysed with Poisson and ZIP models with residuals. Parameter estimates were similar for both models. Although the posterior distribution of the sire variance was skewed due to a small number of rams in the dataset, the median of this variance suggested a scope for genetic selection. The main environmental factor was the age of the sheep at shearing. In summary, age related processes seem to drive the number of dark spots in this breed of sheep.
Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales
Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao
2012-09-01
This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.
Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling
Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.
2016-11-01
Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.
Analysis of Blood Transfusion Data Using Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model: A Bayesian Approach.
Mohammadi, Tayeb; Kheiri, Soleiman; Sedehi, Morteza
2016-01-01
Recognizing the factors affecting the number of blood donation and blood deferral has a major impact on blood transfusion. There is a positive correlation between the variables "number of blood donation" and "number of blood deferral": as the number of return for donation increases, so does the number of blood deferral. On the other hand, due to the fact that many donors never return to donate, there is an extra zero frequency for both of the above-mentioned variables. In this study, in order to apply the correlation and to explain the frequency of the excessive zero, the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model was used for joint modeling of the number of blood donation and number of blood deferral. The data was analyzed using the Bayesian approach applying noninformative priors at the presence and absence of covariates. Estimating the parameters of the model, that is, correlation, zero-inflation parameter, and regression coefficients, was done through MCMC simulation. Eventually double-Poisson model, bivariate Poisson model, and bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model were fitted on the data and were compared using the deviance information criteria (DIC). The results showed that the bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model fitted the data better than the other models.
Bayesian spatial modeling of HIV mortality via zero-inflated Poisson models.
Musal, Muzaffer; Aktekin, Tevfik
2013-01-30
In this paper, we investigate the effects of poverty and inequality on the number of HIV-related deaths in 62 New York counties via Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models that exhibit spatial dependence. We quantify inequality via the Theil index and poverty via the ratios of two Census 2000 variables, the number of people under the poverty line and the number of people for whom poverty status is determined, in each Zip Code Tabulation Area. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of inequality and poverty in addition to spatial dependence between neighboring regions on HIV mortality rate, which can lead to improved health resource allocation decisions. In modeling county-specific HIV counts, we propose Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models whose rates are functions of both covariate and spatial/random effects. To show how the proposed models work, we used three different publicly available data sets: TIGER Shapefiles, Census 2000, and mortality index files. In addition, we introduce parameter estimation issues of Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models and discuss MCMC method implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo
We propose a simple and powerful method for determining the transition process in continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty numerically. The idea is to transform the system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We...... classes of models. We illustrate the algorithm simulating both the stochastic neoclassical growth model and the Lucas model under Poisson uncertainty which is motivated by the Barro-Rietz rare disaster hypothesis. We find that, even for non-linear policy functions, the maximum (absolute) error is very...
Modelling infant mortality rate in Central Java, Indonesia use generalized poisson regression method
Prahutama, Alan; Sudarno
2018-05-01
The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths under one year of age occurring among the live births in a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 live births occurring among the population of the given geographical area during the same year. This problem needs to be addressed because it is an important element of a country’s economic development. High infant mortality rate will disrupt the stability of a country as it relates to the sustainability of the population in the country. One of regression model that can be used to analyze the relationship between dependent variable Y in the form of discrete data and independent variable X is Poisson regression model. Recently The regression modeling used for data with dependent variable is discrete, among others, poisson regression, negative binomial regression and generalized poisson regression. In this research, generalized poisson regression modeling gives better AIC value than poisson regression. The most significant variable is the Number of health facilities (X1), while the variable that gives the most influence to infant mortality rate is the average breastfeeding (X9).
The Hitchin model, Poisson-quasi-Nijenhuis, geometry and symmetry reduction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zucchini, Roberto
2007-01-01
We revisit our earlier work on the AKSZ-like formulation of topological sigma model on generalized complex manifolds, or Hitchin model, [20]. We show that the target space geometry geometry implied by the BV master equations is Poisson-quasi-Nijenhuis geometry recently introduced and studied by Stienon and Xu (in the untwisted case) in [44]. Poisson-quasi-Nijenhuis geometry is more general than generalized complex geometry and comprises it as a particular case. Next, we show how gauging and reduction can be implemented in the Hitchin model. We find that the geometry resulting form the BV master equation is closely related to but more general than that recently described by Lin and Tolman in [40, 41], suggesting a natural framework for the study of reduction of Poisson-quasi-Nijenhuis manifolds
Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.
Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo
2015-05-01
The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Poisson regression for modeling count and frequency outcomes in trauma research.
Gagnon, David R; Doron-LaMarca, Susan; Bell, Margret; O'Farrell, Timothy J; Taft, Casey T
2008-10-01
The authors describe how the Poisson regression method for analyzing count or frequency outcome variables can be applied in trauma studies. The outcome of interest in trauma research may represent a count of the number of incidents of behavior occurring in a given time interval, such as acts of physical aggression or substance abuse. Traditional linear regression approaches assume a normally distributed outcome variable with equal variances over the range of predictor variables, and may not be optimal for modeling count outcomes. An application of Poisson regression is presented using data from a study of intimate partner aggression among male patients in an alcohol treatment program and their female partners. Results of Poisson regression and linear regression models are compared.
Koopman, S.J.; Lit, R.
2015-01-01
Summary: We develop a statistical model for the analysis and forecasting of football match results which assumes a bivariate Poisson distribution with intensity coefficients that change stochastically over time. The dynamic model is a novelty in the statistical time series analysis of match results
On the Modeling and Analysis of Heterogeneous Radio Access Networks using a Poisson Cluster Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Suryaprakash, Vinay; Møller, Jesper; Fettweis, Gerhard P.
processes, some of which are alluded to (later) in this paper. We model a heterogeneous network consisting of two types of base stations by using a particular Poisson cluster process model. The main contributions are two-fold. First, a complete description of the interference in heterogeneous networks...
A LATENT CLASS POISSON REGRESSION-MODEL FOR HETEROGENEOUS COUNT DATA
WEDEL, M; DESARBO, WS; BULT, [No Value; RAMASWAMY, [No Value
1993-01-01
In this paper an approach is developed that accommodates heterogeneity in Poisson regression models for count data. The model developed assumes that heterogeneity arises from a distribution of both the intercept and the coefficients of the explanatory variables. We assume that the mixing
Sepú lveda, Nuno; Campino, Susana G; Assefa, Samuel A; Sutherland, Colin J; Pain, Arnab; Clark, Taane G
2013-01-01
Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Sepúlveda, Nuno; Campino, Susana G; Assefa, Samuel A; Sutherland, Colin J; Pain, Arnab; Clark, Taane G
2013-02-26
The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model. Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates. In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data.
Sepúlveda, Nuno
2013-02-26
Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta-Poisson Dose-Response Model.
Xie, Gang; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Dunn, Peter K; Mengersen, Kerrie
2017-07-01
For dose-response analysis in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), the exact beta-Poisson model is a two-parameter mechanistic dose-response model with parameters α>0 and β>0, which involves the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function. Evaluation of a hypergeometric function is a computational challenge. Denoting PI(d) as the probability of infection at a given mean dose d, the widely used dose-response model PI(d)=1-(1+dβ)-α is an approximate formula for the exact beta-Poisson model. Notwithstanding the required conditions α1, issues related to the validity and approximation accuracy of this approximate formula have remained largely ignored in practice, partly because these conditions are too general to provide clear guidance. Consequently, this study proposes a probability measure Pr(0 (22α̂)0.50 for 0.020.99) . This validity measure and rule of thumb were validated by application to all the completed beta-Poisson models (related to 85 data sets) from the QMRA community portal (QMRA Wiki). The results showed that the higher the probability Pr(0 Poisson model dose-response curve. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
A new multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson model with applications to biomedicine.
Liu, Yin; Tian, Guo-Liang; Tang, Man-Lai; Yuen, Kam Chuen
2018-05-25
Recently, although advances were made on modeling multivariate count data, existing models really has several limitations: (i) The multivariate Poisson log-normal model (Aitchison and Ho, ) cannot be used to fit multivariate count data with excess zero-vectors; (ii) The multivariate zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution (Li et al., 1999) cannot be used to model zero-truncated/deflated count data and it is difficult to apply to high-dimensional cases; (iii) The Type I multivariate zero-adjusted Poisson (ZAP) distribution (Tian et al., 2017) could only model multivariate count data with a special correlation structure for random components that are all positive or negative. In this paper, we first introduce a new multivariate ZAP distribution, based on a multivariate Poisson distribution, which allows the correlations between components with a more flexible dependency structure, that is some of the correlation coefficients could be positive while others could be negative. We then develop its important distributional properties, and provide efficient statistical inference methods for multivariate ZAP model with or without covariates. Two real data examples in biomedicine are used to illustrate the proposed methods. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
A Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) model to address data dispersion on positron emission tomography.
Santarelli, Maria Filomena; Della Latta, Daniele; Scipioni, Michele; Positano, Vincenzo; Landini, Luigi
2016-10-01
Positron emission tomography (PET) in medicine exploits the properties of positron-emitting unstable nuclei. The pairs of γ- rays emitted after annihilation are revealed by coincidence detectors and stored as projections in a sinogram. It is well known that radioactive decay follows a Poisson distribution; however, deviation from Poisson statistics occurs on PET projection data prior to reconstruction due to physical effects, measurement errors, correction of deadtime, scatter, and random coincidences. A model that describes the statistical behavior of measured and corrected PET data can aid in understanding the statistical nature of the data: it is a prerequisite to develop efficient reconstruction and processing methods and to reduce noise. The deviation from Poisson statistics in PET data could be described by the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution model, which is characterized by the centring parameter λ and the dispersion parameter ν, the latter quantifying the deviation from a Poisson distribution model. In particular, the parameter ν allows quantifying over-dispersion (ν1) of data. A simple and efficient method for λ and ν parameters estimation is introduced and assessed using Monte Carlo simulation for a wide range of activity values. The application of the method to simulated and experimental PET phantom data demonstrated that the CMP distribution parameters could detect deviation from the Poisson distribution both in raw and corrected PET data. It may be usefully implemented in image reconstruction algorithms and quantitative PET data analysis, especially in low counting emission data, as in dynamic PET data, where the method demonstrated the best accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.
Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S
2015-11-01
Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.
Modeling of Electrokinetic Processes Using the Nernst-Plank-Poisson System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.
2010-01-01
Electrokinetic processes are known as the mobilization of species within the pore solution of porous materials under the effect of an external electric field. A finite elements model was implemented and used for the integration of the coupled Nernst-Plank-Poisson system of equations in order...
Shiyko, Mariya P.; Li, Yuelin; Rindskopf, David
2012-01-01
Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) have become increasingly common in the social and behavioral sciences; count variables, such as the number of daily smoked cigarettes, are frequently used outcomes in many ILD studies. We demonstrate a generalized extension of growth mixture modeling (GMM) to Poisson-distributed ILD for identifying qualitatively…
Poisson-Based Inference for Perturbation Models in Adaptive Spelling Training
Baschera, Gian-Marco; Gross, Markus
2010-01-01
We present an inference algorithm for perturbation models based on Poisson regression. The algorithm is designed to handle unclassified input with multiple errors described by independent mal-rules. This knowledge representation provides an intelligent tutoring system with local and global information about a student, such as error classification…
The Fixed-Effects Zero-Inflated Poisson Model with an Application to Health Care Utilization
Majo, M.C.; van Soest, A.H.O.
2011-01-01
Response variables that are scored as counts and that present a large number of zeros often arise in quantitative health care analysis. We define a zero-in flated Poisson model with fixed-effects in both of its equations to identify respondent and health-related characteristics associated with
Misspecified poisson regression models for large-scale registry data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grøn, Randi; Gerds, Thomas A.; Andersen, Per K.
2016-01-01
working models that are then likely misspecified. To support and improve conclusions drawn from such models, we discuss methods for sensitivity analysis, for estimation of average exposure effects using aggregated data, and a semi-parametric bootstrap method to obtain robust standard errors. The methods...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
2004-07-01
Brazil, with its sensitive ecology and large rainforests, has a key role in the global environmental problem. Bavaria and Brazil have a long tradition of economic and scientific cooperation. For this reason, it appears logical that the 'Babitonga 2000' project was initiated by the Universities of Erlangen-Nuremberg and Univille, Joinville, in the southern province of Santa Catarina. There was also a regular exchange of scientists and students. Two research stations are operated in the bay of Baia da Babitonga and in the rainforest of Sao Bento do Sul. (orig.) [German] Im vorliegenden Band der Erlanger Forschungen wird ueber das interdisziplinaere bayerisch-brasilianische Umweltprojekt ''Babitonga 2000'' berichtet. Brasilien kommt mit seiner sensiblen Umwelt und den grossen Regenwaldarealen im Rahmen der globalen Umweltproblematik eine besondere Bedeutung zu. Bayern und Brasilien verbindet eine lange Tradition wirtschaftlicher und wissenschaftlicher Zusammenarbeit, die heute auf vielfaeltige Weise gefoerdert wird. Somit lag die vor einigen Jahren angebahnte Partnerschaft zwischen den Universitaeten Erlangen-Nuernberg und der brasilianischen Universitaet Univille in Joinville (in der Suedprovinz Santa Catarina) im beiderseitigen Interesse einer Forschungskooperation. Ueber das Projekt ''Babitonga 2000'' hinaus ist es zu einem regen Austausch von Wissenschaftlern und Studenten gekommen. Brasilianische Studenten nutzen die neu geschaffenen MSc- und PhD-Studiengaenge in Erlangen zu ihrer Qualifizierung. Umgekehrt finden deutsche Wissenschaftler und Studenten im Rahmen von Promotionen und Diplomarbeiten interessante Betaetigungsfelder und ausgezeichnete Rahmenbedingungen im Raum Joinville. Besondere Bedeutung kommt dabei den beiden Forschungsstationen der Univille an der Baia da Babitonga und im Regenwald von Sao Bento do Sul zu. (orig.)
Clinical study of the Erlanger silver catheter--data management and biometry.
Martus, P; Geis, C; Lugauer, S; Böswald, M; Guggenbichler, J P
1999-01-01
The clinical evaluation of venous catheters for catheter-induced infections must conform to a strict biometric methodology. The statistical planning of the study (target population, design, degree of blinding), data management (database design, definition of variables, coding), quality assurance (data inspection at several levels) and the biometric evaluation of the Erlanger silver catheter project are described. The three-step data flow included: 1) primary data from the hospital, 2) relational database, 3) files accessible for statistical evaluation. Two different statistical models were compared: analyzing the first catheter only of a patient in the analysis (independent data) and analyzing several catheters from the same patient (dependent data) by means of the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method. The main result of the study was based on the comparison of both statistical models.
The Poisson model limits in NBA basketball: Complexity in team sports
Martín-González, Juan Manuel; de Saá Guerra, Yves; García-Manso, Juan Manuel; Arriaza, Enrique; Valverde-Estévez, Teresa
2016-12-01
Team sports are frequently studied by researchers. There is presumption that scoring in basketball is a random process and that can be described using the Poisson Model. Basketball is a collaboration-opposition sport, where the non-linear local interactions among players are reflected in the evolution of the score that ultimately determines the winner. In the NBA, the outcomes of close games are often decided in the last minute, where fouls play a main role. We examined 6130 NBA games in order to analyze the time intervals between baskets and scoring dynamics. Most numbers of baskets (n) over a time interval (ΔT) follow a Poisson distribution, but some (e.g., ΔT = 10 s, n > 3) behave as a Power Law. The Poisson distribution includes most baskets in any game, in most game situations, but in close games in the last minute, the numbers of events are distributed following a Power Law. The number of events can be adjusted by a mixture of two distributions. In close games, both teams try to maintain their advantage solely in order to reach the last minute: a completely different game. For this reason, we propose to use the Poisson model as a reference. The complex dynamics will emerge from the limits of this model.
Hidden Markov models for zero-inflated Poisson counts with an application to substance use.
DeSantis, Stacia M; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar
2011-06-30
Paradigms for substance abuse cue-reactivity research involve pharmacological or stressful stimulation designed to elicit stress and craving responses in cocaine-dependent subjects. It is unclear as to whether stress induced from participation in such studies increases drug-seeking behavior. We propose a 2-state Hidden Markov model to model the number of cocaine abuses per week before and after participation in a stress-and cue-reactivity study. The hypothesized latent state corresponds to 'high' or 'low' use. To account for a preponderance of zeros, we assume a zero-inflated Poisson model for the count data. Transition probabilities depend on the prior week's state, fixed demographic variables, and time-varying covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, and use the conditional predictive ordinate statistic to demonstrate that the zero-inflated Poisson hidden Markov model outperforms other models for longitudinal count data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Poisson regression approach for modeling fatal injury rates amongst Malaysian workers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kamarulzaman Ibrahim; Heng Khai Theng
2005-01-01
Many safety studies are based on the analysis carried out on injury surveillance data. The injury surveillance data gathered for the analysis include information on number of employees at risk of injury in each of several strata where the strata are defined in terms of a series of important predictor variables. Further insight into the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables may be obtained by the poisson regression approach. Poisson regression is widely used in analyzing count data. In this study, poisson regression is used to model the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables which are year (1995-2002), gender, recording system and industry type. Data for the analysis were obtained from PERKESO and Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia. It is found that the assumption that the data follow poisson distribution has been violated. After correction for the problem of over dispersion, the predictor variables that are found to be significant in the model are gender, system of recording, industry type, two interaction effects (interaction between recording system and industry type and between year and industry type). Introduction Regression analysis is one of the most popular
Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shilong Li
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.
Khazraee, S Hadi; Johnson, Valen; Lord, Dominique
2018-08-01
The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) regression models are among the most popular means for motor vehicle crash data analysis. Both models belong to the Poisson-hierarchical family of models. While numerous studies have compared the overall performance of alternative Bayesian Poisson-hierarchical models, little research has addressed the impact of model choice on the expected crash frequency prediction at individual sites. This paper sought to examine whether there are any trends among candidate models predictions e.g., that an alternative model's prediction for sites with certain conditions tends to be higher (or lower) than that from another model. In addition to the PG and PLN models, this research formulated a new member of the Poisson-hierarchical family of models: the Poisson-inverse gamma (PIGam). Three field datasets (from Texas, Michigan and Indiana) covering a wide range of over-dispersion characteristics were selected for analysis. This study demonstrated that the model choice can be critical when the calibrated models are used for prediction at new sites, especially when the data are highly over-dispersed. For all three datasets, the PIGam model would predict higher expected crash frequencies than would the PLN and PG models, in order, indicating a clear link between the models predictions and the shape of their mixing distributions (i.e., gamma, lognormal, and inverse gamma, respectively). The thicker tail of the PIGam and PLN models (in order) may provide an advantage when the data are highly over-dispersed. The analysis results also illustrated a major deficiency of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) in comparing the goodness-of-fit of hierarchical models; models with drastically different set of coefficients (and thus predictions for new sites) may yield similar DIC values, because the DIC only accounts for the parameters in the lowest (observation) level of the hierarchy and ignores the higher levels (regression coefficients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lope Virginia
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHLs have been linked to proximity to industrial areas, but evidence regarding the health risk posed by residence near pollutant industries is very limited. The European Pollutant Emission Register (EPER is a public register that furnishes valuable information on industries that release pollutants to air and water, along with their geographical location. This study sought to explore the relationship between NHL mortality in small areas in Spain and environmental exposure to pollutant emissions from EPER-registered industries, using three Poisson-regression-based mathematical models. Methods Observed cases were drawn from mortality registries in Spain for the period 1994–2003. Industries were grouped into the following sectors: energy; metal; mineral; organic chemicals; waste; paper; food; and use of solvents. Populations having an industry within a radius of 1, 1.5, or 2 kilometres from the municipal centroid were deemed to be exposed. Municipalities outside those radii were considered as reference populations. The relative risks (RRs associated with proximity to pollutant industries were estimated using the following methods: Poisson Regression; mixed Poisson model with random provincial effect; and spatial autoregressive modelling (BYM model. Results Only proximity of paper industries to population centres (>2 km could be associated with a greater risk of NHL mortality (mixed model: RR:1.24, 95% CI:1.09–1.42; BYM model: RR:1.21, 95% CI:1.01–1.45; Poisson model: RR:1.16, 95% CI:1.06–1.27. Spatial models yielded higher estimates. Conclusion The reported association between exposure to air pollution from the paper, pulp and board industry and NHL mortality is independent of the model used. Inclusion of spatial random effects terms in the risk estimate improves the study of associations between environmental exposures and mortality. The EPER could be of great utility when studying the effects of
Stochastic modeling for neural spiking events based on fractional superstatistical Poisson process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hidetoshi Konno
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In neural spike counting experiments, it is known that there are two main features: (i the counting number has a fractional power-law growth with time and (ii the waiting time (i.e., the inter-spike-interval distribution has a heavy tail. The method of superstatistical Poisson processes (SSPPs is examined whether these main features are properly modeled. Although various mixed/compound Poisson processes are generated with selecting a suitable distribution of the birth-rate of spiking neurons, only the second feature (ii can be modeled by the method of SSPPs. Namely, the first one (i associated with the effect of long-memory cannot be modeled properly. Then, it is shown that the two main features can be modeled successfully by a class of fractional SSPP (FSSPP.
Stochastic modeling for neural spiking events based on fractional superstatistical Poisson process
Konno, Hidetoshi; Tamura, Yoshiyasu
2018-01-01
In neural spike counting experiments, it is known that there are two main features: (i) the counting number has a fractional power-law growth with time and (ii) the waiting time (i.e., the inter-spike-interval) distribution has a heavy tail. The method of superstatistical Poisson processes (SSPPs) is examined whether these main features are properly modeled. Although various mixed/compound Poisson processes are generated with selecting a suitable distribution of the birth-rate of spiking neurons, only the second feature (ii) can be modeled by the method of SSPPs. Namely, the first one (i) associated with the effect of long-memory cannot be modeled properly. Then, it is shown that the two main features can be modeled successfully by a class of fractional SSPP (FSSPP).
Beta-Poisson model for single-cell RNA-seq data analyses.
Vu, Trung Nghia; Wills, Quin F; Kalari, Krishna R; Niu, Nifang; Wang, Liewei; Rantalainen, Mattias; Pawitan, Yudi
2016-07-15
Single-cell RNA-sequencing technology allows detection of gene expression at the single-cell level. One typical feature of the data is a bimodality in the cellular distribution even for highly expressed genes, primarily caused by a proportion of non-expressing cells. The standard and the over-dispersed gamma-Poisson models that are commonly used in bulk-cell RNA-sequencing are not able to capture this property. We introduce a beta-Poisson mixture model that can capture the bimodality of the single-cell gene expression distribution. We further integrate the model into the generalized linear model framework in order to perform differential expression analyses. The whole analytical procedure is called BPSC. The results from several real single-cell RNA-seq datasets indicate that ∼90% of the transcripts are well characterized by the beta-Poisson model; the model-fit from BPSC is better than the fit of the standard gamma-Poisson model in > 80% of the transcripts. Moreover, in differential expression analyses of simulated and real datasets, BPSC performs well against edgeR, a conventional method widely used in bulk-cell RNA-sequencing data, and against scde and MAST, two recent methods specifically designed for single-cell RNA-seq data. An R package BPSC for model fitting and differential expression analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data is available under GPL-3 license at https://github.com/nghiavtr/BPSC CONTACT: yudi.pawitan@ki.se or mattias.rantalainen@ki.se Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
On Partial Defaults in Portfolio Credit Risk : A Poisson Mixture Model Approach
Weißbach, Rafael; von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten
2005-01-01
Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts in the calculation of the economic capital. Two of the approaches are based on the Poisson mixture model CreditRisk+ and derive a loss distribution for an integrated portfolio. The third method treats ...
A Local Poisson Graphical Model for inferring networks from sequencing data.
Allen, Genevera I; Liu, Zhandong
2013-09-01
Gaussian graphical models, a class of undirected graphs or Markov Networks, are often used to infer gene networks based on microarray expression data. Many scientists, however, have begun using high-throughput sequencing technologies such as RNA-sequencing or next generation sequencing to measure gene expression. As the resulting data consists of counts of sequencing reads for each gene, Gaussian graphical models are not optimal for this discrete data. In this paper, we propose a novel method for inferring gene networks from sequencing data: the Local Poisson Graphical Model. Our model assumes a Local Markov property where each variable conditional on all other variables is Poisson distributed. We develop a neighborhood selection algorithm to fit our model locally by performing a series of l1 penalized Poisson, or log-linear, regressions. This yields a fast parallel algorithm for estimating networks from next generation sequencing data. In simulations, we illustrate the effectiveness of our methods for recovering network structure from count data. A case study on breast cancer microRNAs (miRNAs), a novel application of graphical models, finds known regulators of breast cancer genes and discovers novel miRNA clusters and hubs that are targets for future research.
A Poisson-Fault Model for Testing Power Transformers in Service
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dengfu Zhao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a method for assessing the instant failure rate of a power transformer under different working conditions. The method can be applied to a dataset of a power transformer under periodic inspections and maintenance. We use a Poisson-fault model to describe failures of a power transformer. When investigating a Bayes estimate of the instant failure rate under the model, we find that complexities of a classical method and a Monte Carlo simulation are unacceptable. Through establishing a new filtered estimate of Poisson process observations, we propose a quick algorithm of the Bayes estimate of the instant failure rate. The proposed algorithm is tested by simulation datasets of a power transformer. For these datasets, the proposed estimators of parameters of the model have better performance than other estimators. The simulation results reveal the suggested algorithms are quickest among three candidates.
Pareto genealogies arising from a Poisson branching evolution model with selection.
Huillet, Thierry E
2014-02-01
We study a class of coalescents derived from a sampling procedure out of N i.i.d. Pareto(α) random variables, normalized by their sum, including β-size-biasing on total length effects (β Poisson-Dirichlet (α, -β) Ξ-coalescent (α ε[0, 1)), or to a family of continuous-time Beta (2 - α, α - β)Λ-coalescents (α ε[1, 2)), or to the Kingman coalescent (α ≥ 2). We indicate that this class of coalescent processes (and their scaling limits) may be viewed as the genealogical processes of some forward in time evolving branching population models including selection effects. In such constant-size population models, the reproduction step, which is based on a fitness-dependent Poisson Point Process with scaling power-law(α) intensity, is coupled to a selection step consisting of sorting out the N fittest individuals issued from the reproduction step.
Existence theory for a Poisson-Nernst-Planck model of electrophoresis
Bedin, Luciano; Thompson, Mark
2011-01-01
A system modeling the electrophoretic motion of a charged rigid macromolecule immersed in a incompressible ionized fluid is considered. The ionic concentration is governing by the Nernst-Planck equation coupled with the Poisson equation for the electrostatic potential, Navier-Stokes and Newtonian equations for the fluid and the macromolecule dynamics, respectively. A local in time existence result for suitable weak solutions is established, following the approach of Desjardins and Esteban [Co...
Studies on a Double Poisson-Geometric Insurance Risk Model with Interference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yujuan Huang
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper mainly studies a generalized double Poisson-Geometric insurance risk model. By martingale and stopping time approach, we obtain adjustment coefficient equation, the Lundberg inequality, and the formula for the ruin probability. Also the Laplace transformation of the time when the surplus reaches a given level for the first time is discussed, and the expectation and its variance are obtained. Finally, we give the numerical examples.
The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes
Louzada, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G; Barriga, Gladys D.C
2012-01-01
In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activationschemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Infer...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brenner, S.E.; Gandyl', E.M.; Podkopaev, A.P.
1995-01-01
The dynamics of high-current relativistic electron beam moving trough the cylindrical drift space has been modelled by the large particles, the shape of which allows to solve the Poisson equations exactly, and in such a way to avoid the linearization being usually used in those problems. The expressions for the components of own electric field of electron beam passing through the cylindrical drift space have been obtained. (author). 11 refs., 1 fig
Zero inflated Poisson and negative binomial regression models: application in education.
Salehi, Masoud; Roudbari, Masoud
2015-01-01
The number of failed courses and semesters in students are indicators of their performance. These amounts have zero inflated (ZI) distributions. Using ZI Poisson and negative binomial distributions we can model these count data to find the associated factors and estimate the parameters. This study aims at to investigate the important factors related to the educational performance of students. This cross-sectional study performed in 2008-2009 at Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS) with a population of almost 6000 students, 670 students selected using stratified random sampling. The educational and demographical data were collected using the University records. The study design was approved at IUMS and the students' data kept confidential. The descriptive statistics and ZI Poisson and negative binomial regressions were used to analyze the data. The data were analyzed using STATA. In the number of failed semesters, Poisson and negative binomial distributions with ZI, students' total average and quota system had the most roles. For the number of failed courses, total average, and being in undergraduate or master levels had the most effect in both models. In all models the total average have the most effect on the number of failed courses or semesters. The next important factor is quota system in failed semester and undergraduate and master levels in failed courses. Therefore, average has an important inverse effect on the numbers of failed courses and semester.
Modeling Repeated Count Data : Some Extensions of the Rasch Poisson Counts Model
van Duijn, M.A.J.; Jansen, Margo
1995-01-01
We consider data that can be summarized as an N X K table of counts-for example, test data obtained by administering K tests to N subjects. The cell entries y(ij) are assumed to be conditionally independent Poisson-distributed random variables, given the NK Poisson intensity parameters mu(ij). The
Poisson versus threshold models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in US Holsteins.
Vazquez, A I; Weigel, K A; Gianola, D; Bates, D M; Perez-Cabal, M A; Rosa, G J M; Chang, Y M
2009-10-01
Typically, clinical mastitis is coded as the presence or absence of disease in a given lactation, and records are analyzed with either linear models or binary threshold models. Because the presence of mastitis may include cows with multiple episodes, there is a loss of information when counts are treated as binary responses. Poisson models are appropriated for random variables measured as the number of events, and although these models are used extensively in studying the epidemiology of mastitis, they have rarely been used for studying the genetic aspects of mastitis. Ordinal threshold models are pertinent for ordered categorical responses; although one can hypothesize that the number of clinical mastitis episodes per animal reflects a continuous underlying increase in mastitis susceptibility, these models have rarely been used in genetic analysis of mastitis. The objective of this study was to compare probit, Poisson, and ordinal threshold models for the genetic evaluation of US Holstein sires for clinical mastitis. Mastitis was measured as a binary trait or as the number of mastitis cases. Data from 44,908 first-parity cows recorded in on-farm herd management software were gathered, edited, and processed for the present study. The cows were daughters of 1,861 sires, distributed over 94 herds. Predictive ability was assessed via a 5-fold cross-validation using 2 loss functions: mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end point and a cost difference function. The heritability estimates were 0.061 for mastitis measured as a binary trait in the probit model and 0.085 and 0.132 for the number of mastitis cases in the ordinal threshold and Poisson models, respectively; because of scale differences, only the probit and ordinal threshold models are directly comparable. Among healthy animals, MSEP was smallest for the probit model, and the cost function was smallest for the ordinal threshold model. Among diseased animals, MSEP and the cost function were smallest
Bayesian Estimation Of Shift Point In Poisson Model Under Asymmetric Loss Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
uma srivastava
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with estimating shift point which occurs in any sequence of independent observations of Poisson model in statistical process control. This shift point occurs in the sequence when i.e. m life data are observed. The Bayes estimator on shift point 'm' and before and after shift process means are derived for symmetric and asymmetric loss functions under informative and non informative priors. The sensitivity analysis of Bayes estimators are carried out by simulation and numerical comparisons with R-programming. The results shows the effectiveness of shift in sequence of Poisson disribution .
Receiver design for SPAD-based VLC systems under Poisson-Gaussian mixed noise model.
Mao, Tianqi; Wang, Zhaocheng; Wang, Qi
2017-01-23
Single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) is a promising photosensor because of its high sensitivity to optical signals in weak illuminance environment. Recently, it has drawn much attention from researchers in visible light communications (VLC). However, existing literature only deals with the simplified channel model, which only considers the effects of Poisson noise introduced by SPAD, but neglects other noise sources. Specifically, when an analog SPAD detector is applied, there exists Gaussian thermal noise generated by the transimpedance amplifier (TIA) and the digital-to-analog converter (D/A). Therefore, in this paper, we propose an SPAD-based VLC system with pulse-amplitude-modulation (PAM) under Poisson-Gaussian mixed noise model, where Gaussian-distributed thermal noise at the receiver is also investigated. The closed-form conditional likelihood of received signals is derived using the Laplace transform and the saddle-point approximation method, and the corresponding quasi-maximum-likelihood (quasi-ML) detector is proposed. Furthermore, the Poisson-Gaussian-distributed signals are converted to Gaussian variables with the aid of the generalized Anscombe transform (GAT), leading to an equivalent additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel, and a hard-decision-based detector is invoked. Simulation results demonstrate that, the proposed GAT-based detector can reduce the computational complexity with marginal performance loss compared with the proposed quasi-ML detector, and both detectors are capable of accurately demodulating the SPAD-based PAM signals.
Non-chiral, molecular model of negative Poisson ratio in two dimensions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wojciechowski, K W
2003-01-01
A two-dimensional model of tri-atomic molecules (in which 'atoms' are distributed on vertices of equilateral triangles, and which are further referred to as cyclic trimers) is solved exactly in the static (zero-temperature) limit for the nearest-neighbour site-site interactions. It is shown that the cyclic trimers form a mechanically stable and elastically isotropic non-chiral phase of negative Poisson ratio. The properties of the system are illustrated by three examples of atom-atom interaction potentials: (i) the purely repulsive (n-inverse-power) potential, (ii) the purely attractive (n-power) potential and (iii) the Lennard-Jones potential which shows both the repulsive and the attractive part. The analytic form of the dependence of the Poisson ratio on the interatomic potential is obtained. It is shown that the Poisson ratio depends, in a universal way, only on the trimer anisotropy parameter both (1) in the limit of n → ∞ for cases (i) and (ii), as well as (2) at the zero external pressure for any potential with a doubly differentiable minimum, case (iii) is an example
Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I
2018-01-01
Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.
Hallin, M.; Piegorsch, W.; El Shaarawi, A.
2012-01-01
The random variable X taking values 0,1,2,…,x,… with probabilities pλ(x) = e−λλx/x!, where λ∈R0+ is called a Poisson variable, and its distribution a Poisson distribution, with parameter λ. The Poisson distribution with parameter λ can be obtained as the limit, as n → ∞ and p → 0 in such a way that
Fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck Model for Ion Channels I: Basic Formulations and Algorithms.
Chen, Duan
2017-11-01
In this work, we propose a fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck model to describe ion permeation in gated ion channels. Due to the intrinsic conformational changes, crowdedness in narrow channel pores, binding and trapping introduced by functioning units of channel proteins, ionic transport in the channel exhibits a power-law-like anomalous diffusion dynamics. We start from continuous-time random walk model for a single ion and use a long-tailed density distribution function for the particle jump waiting time, to derive the fractional Fokker-Planck equation. Then, it is generalized to the macroscopic fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck model for ionic concentrations. Necessary computational algorithms are designed to implement numerical simulations for the proposed model, and the dynamics of gating current is investigated. Numerical simulations show that the fractional PNP model provides a more qualitatively reasonable match to the profile of gating currents from experimental observations. Meanwhile, the proposed model motivates new challenges in terms of mathematical modeling and computations.
A Hierarchical Poisson Log-Normal Model for Network Inference from RNA Sequencing Data
Gallopin, Mélina; Rau, Andrea; Jaffrézic, Florence
2013-01-01
Gene network inference from transcriptomic data is an important methodological challenge and a key aspect of systems biology. Although several methods have been proposed to infer networks from microarray data, there is a need for inference methods able to model RNA-seq data, which are count-based and highly variable. In this work we propose a hierarchical Poisson log-normal model with a Lasso penalty to infer gene networks from RNA-seq data; this model has the advantage of directly modelling discrete data and accounting for inter-sample variance larger than the sample mean. Using real microRNA-seq data from breast cancer tumors and simulations, we compare this method to a regularized Gaussian graphical model on log-transformed data, and a Poisson log-linear graphical model with a Lasso penalty on power-transformed data. For data simulated with large inter-sample dispersion, the proposed model performs better than the other methods in terms of sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve. These results show the necessity of methods specifically designed for gene network inference from RNA-seq data. PMID:24147011
Haris, Muhammad; Yasin, Hasbi; Hoyyi, Abdul
2015-01-01
Theft is an act taking someone else's property, partially or entierely, with intention to have it illegally. Motor vehicle theft is one of the most highlighted crime type and disturbing the communities. Regression analysis is a statistical analysis for modeling the relationships between response variable and predictor variable. If the response variable follows a Poisson distribution or categorized as a count data, so the regression model used is Poisson regression. Geographically Weighted Poi...
Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data
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Jorge Alberto Achcar
2011-12-01
Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.
Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data.
Achcar, Jorge Alberto; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Souza, Aparecida Doniseti Pires de; Tachibana, Vilma Mayumi; Flores, Edilson Ferreira
2011-01-01
Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using bayesian spatiotemporal methods. We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.
Boxma, O.J.; Yechiali, U.; Ruggeri, F.; Kenett, R.S.; Faltin, F.W.
2007-01-01
The Poisson process is a stochastic counting process that arises naturally in a large variety of daily life situations. We present a few definitions of the Poisson process and discuss several properties as well as relations to some well-known probability distributions. We further briefly discuss the
Goychuk, I
2001-08-01
Stochastic resonance in a simple model of information transfer is studied for sensory neurons and ensembles of ion channels. An exact expression for the information gain is obtained for the Poisson process with the signal-modulated spiking rate. This result allows one to generalize the conventional stochastic resonance (SR) problem (with periodic input signal) to the arbitrary signals of finite duration (nonstationary SR). Moreover, in the case of a periodic signal, the rate of information gain is compared with the conventional signal-to-noise ratio. The paper establishes the general nonequivalence between both measures notwithstanding their apparent similarity in the limit of weak signals.
Classifying next-generation sequencing data using a zero-inflated Poisson model.
Zhou, Yan; Wan, Xiang; Zhang, Baoxue; Tong, Tiejun
2018-04-15
With the development of high-throughput techniques, RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative for gene expression analysis, such as RNAs profiling and classification. Identifying which type of diseases a new patient belongs to with RNA-seq data has been recognized as a vital problem in medical research. As RNA-seq data are discrete, statistical methods developed for classifying microarray data cannot be readily applied for RNA-seq data classification. Witten proposed a Poisson linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) to classify the RNA-seq data in 2011. Note, however, that the count datasets are frequently characterized by excess zeros in real RNA-seq or microRNA sequence data (i.e. when the sequence depth is not enough or small RNAs with the length of 18-30 nucleotides). Therefore, it is desired to develop a new model to analyze RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. In this paper, we propose a Zero-Inflated Poisson Logistic Discriminant Analysis (ZIPLDA) for RNA-seq data with an excess of zeros. The new method assumes that the data are from a mixture of two distributions: one is a point mass at zero, and the other follows a Poisson distribution. We then consider a logistic relation between the probability of observing zeros and the mean of the genes and the sequencing depth in the model. Simulation studies show that the proposed method performs better than, or at least as well as, the existing methods in a wide range of settings. Two real datasets including a breast cancer RNA-seq dataset and a microRNA-seq dataset are also analyzed, and they coincide with the simulation results that our proposed method outperforms the existing competitors. The software is available at http://www.math.hkbu.edu.hk/∼tongt. xwan@comp.hkbu.edu.hk or tongt@hkbu.edu.hk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Pendugaan Angka Kematian Bayi dengan Menggunakan Model Poisson Bayes Berhirarki Dua-Level
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Nusar Hajarisman
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Official institutions of national data providers such as the BPS-Statistics Indonesia is required to produce and present the statistical information, as necessary as a form of contributory BPS region in support of regional development policy and planning. There are survey conducted by BPS capability estimation techniques are still limited, due to the resulting estimators have not been able to directly assumed for small areas. In this article we propose the hierarchical Bayesian models, especially for count data which are Poisson distributed, in small area estimation problem. The model was developed by combining concept of generalized linear model and Fay-Herriot model. The results of the development of this model is implemented to estimate the infant mortality rate in Bojonegoro district, East Java Province.
Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.
2016-01-01
Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051
Non-Poisson counting statistics of a hybrid G-M counter dead time model
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Lee, Sang Hoon; Jae, Moosung; Gardner, Robin P.
2007-01-01
The counting statistics of a G-M counter with a considerable dead time event rate deviates from Poisson statistics. Important characteristics such as observed counting rates as a function true counting rates, variances and interval distributions were analyzed for three dead time models, non-paralyzable, paralyzable and hybrid, with the help of GMSIM, a Monte Carlo dead time effect simulator. The simulation results showed good agreements with the models in observed counting rates and variances. It was found through GMSIM simulations that the interval distribution for the hybrid model showed three distinctive regions, a complete cutoff region for the duration of the total dead time, a degraded exponential and an enhanced exponential regions. By measuring the cutoff and the duration of degraded exponential from the pulse interval distribution, it is possible to evaluate the two dead times in the hybrid model
Climate changes and their effects in the public health: use of poisson regression models
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Jonas Bodini Alonso
2010-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the daily number of hospitalizations in São Paulo City, Brazil, in the period of January 01, 2002 to December 31, 2005. This data set relates to pneumonia, coronary ischemic diseases, diabetes and chronic diseases in different age categories. In order to verify the effect of climate changes the following covariates are considered: atmosphere pressure, air humidity, temperature, year season and also a covariate related to the week day when the hospitalization occurred. The possible effects of the assumed covariates in the number of hospitalization are studied using a Poisson regression model in the presence or not of a random effect which captures the possible correlation among the hospitalization accounting for the different age categories in the same day and the extra-Poisson variability for the longitudinal data. The inferences of interest are obtained using the Bayesian paradigm and MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.Neste artigo, analisamos os dados relativos aos números diários de hospitalizações na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil no período de 01/01/2002 a 31/12/2005 devido a pneumonia, doenças isquêmicas, diabetes e doenças crônicas e de acordo com a faixa etária. Com o objetivo de estudar o efeito de mudanças climáticas são consideradas algumas covariáveis climáticas os índices diários de pressão atmosférica, umidade do ar, temperatura e estação do ano, e uma covariável relacionada ao dia da semana da ocorrência de hospitalização. Para verificar os efeitos das covariáveis nas respostas dadas pelo numero de hospitalizações, consideramos um modelo de regressão de Poisson na presença ou não de um efeito aleatório que captura a possível correlação entre as contagens para as faixas etárias de um mesmo dia e a variabilidade extra-poisson para os dados longitudinais. As inferências de interesse são obtidas usando o paradigma bayesiano e métodos de simulação MCMC (Monte Carlo
Lin, I-Chun; Xing, Dajun; Shapley, Robert
2012-12-01
One of the reasons the visual cortex has attracted the interest of computational neuroscience is that it has well-defined inputs. The lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) of the thalamus is the source of visual signals to the primary visual cortex (V1). Most large-scale cortical network models approximate the spike trains of LGN neurons as simple Poisson point processes. However, many studies have shown that neurons in the early visual pathway are capable of spiking with high temporal precision and their discharges are not Poisson-like. To gain an understanding of how response variability in the LGN influences the behavior of V1, we study response properties of model V1 neurons that receive purely feedforward inputs from LGN cells modeled either as noisy leaky integrate-and-fire (NLIF) neurons or as inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We first demonstrate that the NLIF model is capable of reproducing many experimentally observed statistical properties of LGN neurons. Then we show that a V1 model in which the LGN input to a V1 neuron is modeled as a group of NLIF neurons produces higher orientation selectivity than the one with Poisson LGN input. The second result implies that statistical characteristics of LGN spike trains are important for V1's function. We conclude that physiologically motivated models of V1 need to include more realistic LGN spike trains that are less noisy than inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu-Dong, Chen; Li, Li; Yi, Zhang; Jian-Ming, Hu
2009-01-01
In the study of complex networks (systems), the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain power-law between the mean flux (activity) (F i ) of the i-th node and its variance σ i as σ i α (F i ) α . Such scaling laws are found to be prevalent both in natural and man-made network systems, but the understanding of their origins still remains limited. This paper proposes a non-stationary Poisson process model to give an analytical explanation of the non-universal scaling phenomenon: the exponent α varies between 1/2 and 1 depending on the size of sampling time window and the relative strength of the external/internal driven forces of the systems. The crossover behaviour and the relation of fluctuation scaling with pseudo long range dependence are also accounted for by the model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed model can recover the multi-scaling phenomenon. (general)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, C.; Su, W.; Fang, C.; Zhong, S. J.; Wang, L.
2014-01-01
We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft WIND and GOES. The WTDs of both solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail of ∼Δt –γ . The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is γ 1 = 0.99 for the short waiting times (<70 hr) and γ 2 = 1.92 for large waiting times (>100 hr). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions. The power-law index, γ ∼ 1.82, is derived for the WTD of the SPEs which is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process, which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares. We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate λ = 1/Δt varies as the time distribution of event rate f(λ) = Aλ –α exp (– βλ), the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD of ∼Δt α –3 , where 0 ≤ α < 2
Li, Xian-Ying; Hu, Shi-Min
2013-02-01
Harmonic functions are the critical points of a Dirichlet energy functional, the linear projections of conformal maps. They play an important role in computer graphics, particularly for gradient-domain image processing and shape-preserving geometric computation. We propose Poisson coordinates, a novel transfinite interpolation scheme based on the Poisson integral formula, as a rapid way to estimate a harmonic function on a certain domain with desired boundary values. Poisson coordinates are an extension of the Mean Value coordinates (MVCs) which inherit their linear precision, smoothness, and kernel positivity. We give explicit formulas for Poisson coordinates in both continuous and 2D discrete forms. Superior to MVCs, Poisson coordinates are proved to be pseudoharmonic (i.e., they reproduce harmonic functions on n-dimensional balls). Our experimental results show that Poisson coordinates have lower Dirichlet energies than MVCs on a number of typical 2D domains (particularly convex domains). As well as presenting a formula, our approach provides useful insights for further studies on coordinates-based interpolation and fast estimation of harmonic functions.
Borchers, D L; Langrock, R
2015-12-01
We develop maximum likelihood methods for line transect surveys in which animals go undetected at distance zero, either because they are stochastically unavailable while within view or because they are missed when they are available. These incorporate a Markov-modulated Poisson process model for animal availability, allowing more clustered availability events than is possible with Poisson availability models. They include a mark-recapture component arising from the independent-observer survey, leading to more accurate estimation of detection probability given availability. We develop models for situations in which (a) multiple detections of the same individual are possible and (b) some or all of the availability process parameters are estimated from the line transect survey itself, rather than from independent data. We investigate estimator performance by simulation, and compare the multiple-detection estimators with estimators that use only initial detections of individuals, and with a single-observer estimator. Simultaneous estimation of detection function parameters and availability model parameters is shown to be feasible from the line transect survey alone with multiple detections and double-observer data but not with single-observer data. Recording multiple detections of individuals improves estimator precision substantially when estimating the availability model parameters from survey data, and we recommend that these data be gathered. We apply the methods to estimate detection probability from a double-observer survey of North Atlantic minke whales, and find that double-observer data greatly improve estimator precision here too. © 2015 The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.
Zero-Inflated Poisson Modeling of Fall Risk Factors in Community-Dwelling Older Adults.
Jung, Dukyoo; Kang, Younhee; Kim, Mi Young; Ma, Rye-Won; Bhandari, Pratibha
2016-02-01
The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for falls among community-dwelling older adults. The study used a cross-sectional descriptive design. Self-report questionnaires were used to collect data from 658 community-dwelling older adults and were analyzed using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression. Perceived health status was a significant factor in the count model, and fall efficacy emerged as a significant predictor in the logistic models. The findings suggest that fall efficacy is important for predicting not only faller and nonfaller status but also fall counts in older adults who may or may not have experienced a previous fall. The fall predictors identified in this study--perceived health status and fall efficacy--indicate the need for fall-prevention programs tailored to address both the physical and psychological issues unique to older adults. © The Author(s) 2014.
Repairable-conditionally repairable damage model based on dual Poisson processes.
Lind, B K; Persson, L M; Edgren, M R; Hedlöf, I; Brahme, A
2003-09-01
The advent of intensity-modulated radiation therapy makes it increasingly important to model the response accurately when large volumes of normal tissues are irradiated by controlled graded dose distributions aimed at maximizing tumor cure and minimizing normal tissue toxicity. The cell survival model proposed here is very useful and flexible for accurate description of the response of healthy tissues as well as tumors in classical and truly radiobiologically optimized radiation therapy. The repairable-conditionally repairable (RCR) model distinguishes between two different types of damage, namely the potentially repairable, which may also be lethal, i.e. if unrepaired or misrepaired, and the conditionally repairable, which may be repaired or may lead to apoptosis if it has not been repaired correctly. When potentially repairable damage is being repaired, for example by nonhomologous end joining, conditionally repairable damage may require in addition a high-fidelity correction by homologous repair. The induction of both types of damage is assumed to be described by Poisson statistics. The resultant cell survival expression has the unique ability to fit most experimental data well at low doses (the initial hypersensitive range), intermediate doses (on the shoulder of the survival curve), and high doses (on the quasi-exponential region of the survival curve). The complete Poisson expression can be approximated well by a simple bi-exponential cell survival expression, S(D) = e(-aD) + bDe(-cD), where the first term describes the survival of undamaged cells and the last term represents survival after complete repair of sublethal damage. The bi-exponential expression makes it easy to derive D(0), D(q), n and alpha, beta values to facilitate comparison with classical cell survival models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jurčo, Branislav, E-mail: jurco@karlin.mff.cuni.cz [Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Mathematical Institute, Prague 186 75 (Czech Republic); Schupp, Peter, E-mail: p.schupp@jacobs-university.de [Jacobs University Bremen, 28759 Bremen (Germany); Vysoký, Jan, E-mail: vysokjan@fjfi.cvut.cz [Jacobs University Bremen, 28759 Bremen (Germany); Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Prague 115 19 (Czech Republic)
2014-06-02
We generalize noncommutative gauge theory using Nambu–Poisson structures to obtain a new type of gauge theory with higher brackets and gauge fields. The approach is based on covariant coordinates and higher versions of the Seiberg–Witten map. We construct a covariant Nambu–Poisson gauge theory action, give its first order expansion in the Nambu–Poisson tensor and relate it to a Nambu–Poisson matrix model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jurčo, Branislav; Schupp, Peter; Vysoký, Jan
2014-01-01
We generalize noncommutative gauge theory using Nambu–Poisson structures to obtain a new type of gauge theory with higher brackets and gauge fields. The approach is based on covariant coordinates and higher versions of the Seiberg–Witten map. We construct a covariant Nambu–Poisson gauge theory action, give its first order expansion in the Nambu–Poisson tensor and relate it to a Nambu–Poisson matrix model.
On the Fractional Poisson Process and the Discretized Stable Subordinator
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Rudolf Gorenflo
2015-08-01
Full Text Available We consider the renewal counting number process N = N(t as a forward march over the non-negative integers with independent identically distributed waiting times. We embed the values of the counting numbers N in a “pseudo-spatial” non-negative half-line x ≥ 0 and observe that for physical time likewise we have t ≥ 0. Thus we apply the Laplace transform with respect to both variables x and t. Applying then a modification of the Montroll-Weiss-Cox formalism of continuous time random walk we obtain the essential characteristics of a renewal process in the transform domain and, if we are lucky, also in the physical domain. The process t = t(N of accumulation of waiting times is inverse to the counting number process, in honour of the Danish mathematician and telecommunication engineer A.K. Erlang we call it the Erlang process. It yields the probability of exactly n renewal events in the interval (0; t]. We apply our Laplace-Laplace formalism to the fractional Poisson process whose waiting times are of Mittag-Leffler type and to a renewal process whose waiting times are of Wright type. The process of Mittag-Leffler type includes as a limiting case the classical Poisson process, the process of Wright type represents the discretized stable subordinator and a re-scaled version of it was used in our method of parametric subordination of time-space fractional diffusion processes. Properly rescaling the counting number process N(t and the Erlang process t(N yields as diffusion limits the inverse stable and the stable subordinator, respectively.
Analytical estimation of effective charges at saturation in Poisson-Boltzmann cell models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trizac, Emmanuel; Aubouy, Miguel; Bocquet, Lyderic
2003-01-01
We propose a simple approximation scheme for computing the effective charges of highly charged colloids (spherical or cylindrical with infinite length). Within non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann theory, we start from an expression for the effective charge in the infinite-dilution limit which is asymptotically valid for large salt concentrations; this result is then extended to finite colloidal concentration, approximating the salt partitioning effect which relates the salt content in the suspension to that of a dialysing reservoir. This leads to an analytical expression for the effective charge as a function of colloid volume fraction and salt concentration. These results compare favourably with the effective charges at saturation (i.e. in the limit of large bare charge) computed numerically following the standard prescription proposed by Alexander et al within the cell model
Narukawa, Masaki; Nohara, Katsuhito
2018-04-01
This study proposes an estimation approach to panel count data, truncated at zero, in order to apply a contingent behavior travel cost method to revealed and stated preference data collected via a web-based survey. We develop zero-truncated panel Poisson mixture models by focusing on respondents who visited a site. In addition, we introduce an inverse Gaussian distribution to unobserved individual heterogeneity as an alternative to a popular gamma distribution, making it possible to capture effectively the long tail typically observed in trip data. We apply the proposed method to estimate the impact on tourism benefits in Fukushima Prefecture as a result of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant No. 1 accident. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Identification of temporal patterns in the seismicity of Sumatra using Poisson Hidden Markov models
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Katerina Orfanogiannaki
2014-05-01
Full Text Available On 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005 two large earthquakes occurred between the Indo-Australian and the southeastern Eurasian plates with moment magnitudes Mw=9.1 and Mw=8.6, respectively. Complete data (mb≥4.2 of the post-1993 time interval have been used to apply Poisson Hidden Markov models (PHMMs for identifying temporal patterns in the time series of the two earthquake sequences. Each time series consists of earthquake counts, in given and constant time units, in the regions determined by the aftershock zones of the two mainshocks. In PHMMs each count is generated by one of m different Poisson processes that are called states. The series of states is unobserved and is in fact a Markov chain. The model incorporates a varying seismicity rate, it assigns a different rate to each state and it detects the changes on the rate over time. In PHMMs unobserved factors, related to the local properties of the region are considered affecting the earthquake occurrence rate. Estimation and interpretation of the unobserved sequence of states that underlie the data contribute to better understanding of the geophysical processes that take place in the region. We applied PHMMs to the time series of the two mainshocks and we estimated the unobserved sequences of states that underlie the data. The results obtained showed that the region of the 26 December 2004 earthquake was in state of low seismicity during almost the entire observation period. On the contrary, in the region of the 28 March 2005 earthquake the seismic activity is attributed to triggered seismicity, due to stress transfer from the region of the 2004 mainshock.
Arab, Ali; Holan, Scott H.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Wildhaber, Mark L.
2012-01-01
Ecological studies involving counts of abundance, presence–absence or occupancy rates often produce data having a substantial proportion of zeros. Furthermore, these types of processes are typically multivariate and only adequately described by complex nonlinear relationships involving externally measured covariates. Ignoring these aspects of the data and implementing standard approaches can lead to models that fail to provide adequate scientific understanding of the underlying ecological processes, possibly resulting in a loss of inferential power. One method of dealing with data having excess zeros is to consider the class of univariate zero-inflated generalized linear models. However, this class of models fails to address the multivariate and nonlinear aspects associated with the data usually encountered in practice. Therefore, we propose a semiparametric bivariate zero-inflated Poisson model that takes into account both of these data attributes. The general modeling framework is hierarchical Bayes and is suitable for a broad range of applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model through a motivating example on modeling catch per unit area for multiple species using data from the Missouri River Benthic Fishes Study, implemented by the United States Geological Survey.
Kyllingsbaek, Soren; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus
2012-01-01
The authors propose and test a simple model of the time course of visual identification of briefly presented, mutually confusable single stimuli in pure accuracy tasks. The model implies that during stimulus analysis, tentative categorizations that stimulus i belongs to category j are made at a constant Poisson rate, v(i, j). The analysis is…
Terashima, Yuji
2008-01-01
In this paper, defining Poisson functions on super manifolds, we show that the graphs of Poisson functions are Dirac structures, and find Poisson functions which include as special cases both quasi-Poisson structures and twisted Poisson structures.
Taguchi, Katsuyuki; Polster, Christoph; Lee, Okkyun; Stierstorfer, Karl; Kappler, Steffen
2016-12-01
An x-ray photon interacts with photon counting detectors (PCDs) and generates an electron charge cloud or multiple clouds. The clouds (thus, the photon energy) may be split between two adjacent PCD pixels when the interaction occurs near pixel boundaries, producing a count at both of the pixels. This is called double-counting with charge sharing. (A photoelectric effect with K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission would result in double-counting as well). As a result, PCD data are spatially and energetically correlated, although the output of individual PCD pixels is Poisson distributed. Major problems include the lack of a detector noise model for the spatio-energetic cross talk and lack of a computationally efficient simulation tool for generating correlated Poisson data. A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation can accurately simulate these phenomena and produce noisy data; however, it is not computationally efficient. In this study, the authors developed a new detector model and implemented it in an efficient software simulator that uses a Poisson random number generator to produce correlated noisy integer counts. The detector model takes the following effects into account: (1) detection efficiency; (2) incomplete charge collection and ballistic effect; (3) interaction with PCDs via photoelectric effect (with or without K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission, which may escape from the PCDs or be reabsorbed); and (4) electronic noise. The correlation was modeled by using these two simplifying assumptions: energy conservation and mutual exclusiveness. The mutual exclusiveness is that no more than two pixels measure energy from one photon. The effect of model parameters has been studied and results were compared with MC simulations. The agreement, with respect to the spectrum, was evaluated using the reduced χ 2 statistics or a weighted sum of squared errors, χ red 2 (≥1), where χ red 2 =1 indicates a perfect fit. The model produced spectra with flat field irradiation that
Poisson-Boltzmann theory of charged colloids: limits of the cell model for salty suspensions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Denton, A R
2010-01-01
Thermodynamic properties of charge-stabilized colloidal suspensions and polyelectrolyte solutions are commonly modelled by implementing the mean-field Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) theory within a cell model. This approach models a bulk system by a single macroion, together with counterions and salt ions, confined to a symmetrically shaped, electroneutral cell. While easing numerical solution of the nonlinear PB equation, the cell model neglects microion-induced interactions and correlations between macroions, precluding modelling of macroion ordering phenomena. An alternative approach, which avoids the artificial constraints of cell geometry, exploits the mapping of a macroion-microion mixture onto a one-component model of pseudo-macroions governed by effective interparticle interactions. In practice, effective-interaction models are usually based on linear-screening approximations, which can accurately describe strong nonlinear screening only by incorporating an effective (renormalized) macroion charge. Combining charge renormalization and linearized PB theories, in both the cell model and an effective-interaction (cell-free) model, we compute osmotic pressures of highly charged colloids and monovalent microions, in Donnan equilibrium with a salt reservoir, over a range of concentrations. By comparing predictions with primitive model simulation data for salt-free suspensions, and with predictions from nonlinear PB theory for salty suspensions, we chart the limits of both the cell model and linear-screening approximations in modelling bulk thermodynamic properties. Up to moderately strong electrostatic couplings, the cell model proves accurate for predicting osmotic pressures of deionized (counterion-dominated) suspensions. With increasing salt concentration, however, the relative contribution of macroion interactions to the osmotic pressure grows, leading predictions from the cell and effective-interaction models to deviate. No evidence is found for a liquid
Pendar, Hodjat; Platini, Thierry; Kulkarni, Rahul V
2013-04-01
Stochasticity in gene expression gives rise to fluctuations in protein levels across a population of genetically identical cells. Such fluctuations can lead to phenotypic variation in clonal populations; hence, there is considerable interest in quantifying noise in gene expression using stochastic models. However, obtaining exact analytical results for protein distributions has been an intractable task for all but the simplest models. Here, we invoke the partitioning property of Poisson processes to develop a mapping that significantly simplifies the analysis of stochastic models of gene expression. The mapping leads to exact protein distributions using results for mRNA distributions in models with promoter-based regulation. Using this approach, we derive exact analytical results for steady-state and time-dependent distributions for the basic two-stage model of gene expression. Furthermore, we show how the mapping leads to exact protein distributions for extensions of the basic model that include the effects of posttranscriptional and posttranslational regulation. The approach developed in this work is widely applicable and can contribute to a quantitative understanding of stochasticity in gene expression and its regulation.
Pendar, Hodjat; Platini, Thierry; Kulkarni, Rahul V.
2013-04-01
Stochasticity in gene expression gives rise to fluctuations in protein levels across a population of genetically identical cells. Such fluctuations can lead to phenotypic variation in clonal populations; hence, there is considerable interest in quantifying noise in gene expression using stochastic models. However, obtaining exact analytical results for protein distributions has been an intractable task for all but the simplest models. Here, we invoke the partitioning property of Poisson processes to develop a mapping that significantly simplifies the analysis of stochastic models of gene expression. The mapping leads to exact protein distributions using results for mRNA distributions in models with promoter-based regulation. Using this approach, we derive exact analytical results for steady-state and time-dependent distributions for the basic two-stage model of gene expression. Furthermore, we show how the mapping leads to exact protein distributions for extensions of the basic model that include the effects of posttranscriptional and posttranslational regulation. The approach developed in this work is widely applicable and can contribute to a quantitative understanding of stochasticity in gene expression and its regulation.
Understanding poisson regression.
Hayat, Matthew J; Higgins, Melinda
2014-04-01
Nurse investigators often collect study data in the form of counts. Traditional methods of data analysis have historically approached analysis of count data either as if the count data were continuous and normally distributed or with dichotomization of the counts into the categories of occurred or did not occur. These outdated methods for analyzing count data have been replaced with more appropriate statistical methods that make use of the Poisson probability distribution, which is useful for analyzing count data. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the Poisson distribution and its use in Poisson regression. Assumption violations for the standard Poisson regression model are addressed with alternative approaches, including addition of an overdispersion parameter or negative binomial regression. An illustrative example is presented with an application from the ENSPIRE study, and regression modeling of comorbidity data is included for illustrative purposes. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.
Markov model of fatigue of a composite material with the poisson process of defect initiation
Paramonov, Yu.; Chatys, R.; Andersons, J.; Kleinhofs, M.
2012-05-01
As a development of the model where only one weak microvolume (WMV) and only a pulsating cyclic loading are considered, in the current version of the model, we take into account the presence of several weak sites where fatigue damage can accumulate and a loading with an arbitrary (but positive) stress ratio. The Poisson process of initiation of WMVs is considered, whose rate depends on the size of a specimen. The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the fatigue life of every individual WMV is calculated using the Markov model of fatigue. For the case where this function is approximated by a lognormal distribution, a formula for calculating the cdf of fatigue life of the specimen (modeled as a chain of WMVs) is obtained. Only a pulsating cyclic loading was considered in the previous version of the model. Now, using the modified energy method, a loading cycle with an arbitrary stress ratio is "transformed" into an equivalent cycle with some other stress ratio. In such a way, the entire probabilistic fatigue diagram for any stress ratio with a positive cycle stress can be obtained. Numerical examples are presented.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, J.C.
2011-01-01
In a recent paper (Lewis, 2008) a class of models suitable for application to collision-sequence interference was introduced. In these models velocities are assumed to be completely randomized in each collision. The distribution of velocities was assumed to be Gaussian. The integrated induced dipole moment μk, for vector interference, or the scalar modulation μk, for scalar interference, was assumed to be a function of the impulse (integrated force) fk, or its magnitude fk, experienced by the molecule in a collision. For most of (Lewis, 2008) it was assumed that μk fk and μk fk, but it proved to be possible to extend the models, so that the magnitude of the induced dipole moment is equal to an arbitrary power or sum of powers of the intermolecular force. This allows estimates of the in filling of the interference dip by the dis proportionality of the induced dipole moment and force. One particular such model, using data from (Herman and Lewis, 2006), leads to the most realistic estimate for the in filling of the vector interference dip yet obtained. In (Lewis, 2008) the drastic assumption was made that collision times occurred at equal intervals. In the present paper that assumption is removed: the collision times are taken to form a Poisson process. This is much more realistic than the equal-intervals assumption. The interference dip is found to be a Lorentzian in this model
Ribeiro, Manuel Castro; Sousa, António Jorge; Pereira, Maria João
2016-05-01
The geographical distribution of health outcomes is influenced by socio-economic and environmental factors operating on different spatial scales. Geographical variations in relationships can be revealed with semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (sGWPR), a model that can combine both geographically varying and geographically constant parameters. To decide whether a parameter should vary geographically, two models are compared: one in which all parameters are allowed to vary geographically and one in which all except the parameter being evaluated are allowed to vary geographically. The model with the lower corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) is selected. Delivering model selection exclusively according to the AICc might hide important details in spatial variations of associations. We propose assisting the decision by using a Linear Model of Coregionalization (LMC). Here we show how LMC can refine sGWPR on ecological associations between socio-economic and environmental variables and low birth weight outcomes in the west-north-central region of Portugal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Multivariate poisson lognormal modeling of crashes by type and severity on rural two lane highways.
Wang, Kai; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Jackson, Eric
2017-02-01
In an effort to improve traffic safety, there has been considerable interest in estimating crash prediction models and identifying factors contributing to crashes. To account for crash frequency variations among crash types and severities, crash prediction models have been estimated by type and severity. The univariate crash count models have been used by researchers to estimate crashes by crash type or severity, in which the crash counts by type or severity are assumed to be independent of one another and modelled separately. When considering crash types and severities simultaneously, this may neglect the potential correlations between crash counts due to the presence of shared unobserved factors across crash types or severities for a specific roadway intersection or segment, and might lead to biased parameter estimation and reduce model accuracy. The focus on this study is to estimate crashes by both crash type and crash severity using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) Multivariate Poisson Lognormal (MVPLN) model, and identify the different effects of contributing factors on different crash type and severity counts on rural two-lane highways. The INLA MVPLN model can simultaneously model crash counts by crash type and crash severity by accounting for the potential correlations among them and significantly decreases the computational time compared with a fully Bayesian fitting of the MVPLN model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This paper describes estimation of MVPLN models for three-way stop controlled (3ST) intersections, four-way stop controlled (4ST) intersections, four-way signalized (4SG) intersections, and roadway segments on rural two-lane highways. Annual Average Daily traffic (AADT) and variables describing roadway conditions (including presence of lighting, presence of left-turn/right-turn lane, lane width and shoulder width) were used as predictors. A Univariate Poisson Lognormal (UPLN) was estimated by crash type and
Xie, Dexuan; Volkmer, Hans W.; Ying, Jinyong
2016-04-01
The nonlocal dielectric approach has led to new models and solvers for predicting electrostatics of proteins (or other biomolecules), but how to validate and compare them remains a challenge. To promote such a study, in this paper, two typical nonlocal dielectric models are revisited. Their analytical solutions are then found in the expressions of simple series for a dielectric sphere containing any number of point charges. As a special case, the analytical solution of the corresponding Poisson dielectric model is also derived in simple series, which significantly improves the well known Kirkwood's double series expansion. Furthermore, a convolution of one nonlocal dielectric solution with a commonly used nonlocal kernel function is obtained, along with the reaction parts of these local and nonlocal solutions. To turn these new series solutions into a valuable research tool, they are programed as a free fortran software package, which can input point charge data directly from a protein data bank file. Consequently, different validation tests can be quickly done on different proteins. Finally, a test example for a protein with 488 atomic charges is reported to demonstrate the differences between the local and nonlocal models as well as the importance of using the reaction parts to develop local and nonlocal dielectric solvers.
Advanced diffusion model in compacted bentonite based on modified Poisson-Boltzmann equations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yotsuji, K.; Tachi, Y.; Nishimaki, Y.
2012-01-01
Document available in extended abstract form only. Diffusion and sorption of radionuclides in compacted bentonite are the key processes in the safe geological disposal of radioactive waste. JAEA has developed the integrated sorption and diffusion (ISD) model for compacted bentonite by coupling the pore water chemistry, sorption and diffusion processes in consistent way. The diffusion model accounts consistently for cation excess and anion exclusion in narrow pores in compacted bentonite by the electric double layer (EDL) theory. The firstly developed ISD model could predict the diffusivity of the monovalent cation/anion in compacted bentonite as a function of dry density. This ISD model was modified by considering the visco-electric effect, and applied for diffusion data for various radionuclides measured under wide range of conditions (salinity, density, etc.). This modified ISD model can give better quantitative agreement with diffusion data for monovalent cation/anion, however, the model predictions still disagree with experimental data for multivalent cation and complex species. In this study we extract the additional key factors influencing diffusion model in narrow charged pores, and the effects of these factors were investigated to reach a better understanding of diffusion processes in compacted bentonite. We investigated here the dielectric saturation effect and the excluded volume effect into the present ISD model and numerically solved these modified Poisson-Boltzmann equations. In the vicinity of the negatively charged clay surfaces, it is necessary to evaluate concentration distribution of electrolytes considering the dielectric saturation effects. The Poisson-Boltzmann (P-B) equation coupled with the dielectric saturation effects was solved numerically by using Runge-Kutta and Shooting methods. Figure 1(a) shows the concentration distributions of Na + as numerical solutions of the modified and original P-B equations for 0.01 M pore water, 800 kg m -3
Le Bihan, Nicolas; Margerin, Ludovic
2009-07-01
In this paper, we present a nonparametric method to estimate the heterogeneity of a random medium from the angular distribution of intensity of waves transmitted through a slab of random material. Our approach is based on the modeling of forward multiple scattering using compound Poisson processes on compact Lie groups. The estimation technique is validated through numerical simulations based on radiative transfer theory.
Winahju, W. S.; Mukarromah, A.; Putri, S.
2015-03-01
Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by bacteria of leprosy (Mycobacterium leprae). Leprosy has become an important thing in Indonesia because its morbidity is quite high. Based on WHO data in 2014, in 2012 Indonesia has the highest number of new leprosy patients after India and Brazil with a contribution of 18.994 people (8.7% of the world). This number makes Indonesia automatically placed as the country with the highest number of leprosy morbidity of ASEAN countries. The province that most contributes to the number of leprosy patients in Indonesia is East Java. There are two kind of leprosy. They consist of pausibacillary and multibacillary. The morbidity of multibacillary leprosy is higher than pausibacillary leprosy. This paper will discuss modeling both of the number of multibacillary and pausibacillary leprosy patients as responses variables. These responses are count variables, so modeling will be conducted by using bivariate poisson regression method. Unit experiment used is in East Java, and predictors involved are: environment, demography, and poverty. The model uses data in 2012, and the result indicates that all predictors influence significantly.
Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam
2015-05-01
Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.
Ship-Track Models Based on Poisson-Distributed Port-Departure Times
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Heitmeyer, Richard
2006-01-01
... of those ships, and their nominal speeds. The probability law assumes that the ship departure times are Poisson-distributed with a time-varying departure rate and that the ship speeds and ship routes are statistically independent...
Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N
2017-10-01
In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.
Wan, Wai-Yin; Chan, Jennifer S K
2009-08-01
For time series of count data, correlated measurements, clustering as well as excessive zeros occur simultaneously in biomedical applications. Ignoring such effects might contribute to misleading treatment outcomes. A generalized mixture Poisson geometric process (GMPGP) model and a zero-altered mixture Poisson geometric process (ZMPGP) model are developed from the geometric process model, which was originally developed for modelling positive continuous data and was extended to handle count data. These models are motivated by evaluating the trend development of new tumour counts for bladder cancer patients as well as by identifying useful covariates which affect the count level. The models are implemented using Bayesian method with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and are assessed using deviance information criterion (DIC).
Elghafghuf, Adel; Dufour, Simon; Reyher, Kristen; Dohoo, Ian; Stryhn, Henrik
2014-12-01
Mastitis is a complex disease affecting dairy cows and is considered to be the most costly disease of dairy herds. The hazard of mastitis is a function of many factors, both managerial and environmental, making its control a difficult issue to milk producers. Observational studies of clinical mastitis (CM) often generate datasets with a number of characteristics which influence the analysis of those data: the outcome of interest may be the time to occurrence of a case of mastitis, predictors may change over time (time-dependent predictors), the effects of factors may change over time (time-dependent effects), there are usually multiple hierarchical levels, and datasets may be very large. Analysis of such data often requires expansion of the data into the counting-process format - leading to larger datasets - thus complicating the analysis and requiring excessive computing time. In this study, a nested frailty Cox model with time-dependent predictors and effects was applied to Canadian Bovine Mastitis Research Network data in which 10,831 lactations of 8035 cows from 69 herds were followed through lactation until the first occurrence of CM. The model was fit to the data as a Poisson model with nested normally distributed random effects at the cow and herd levels. Risk factors associated with the hazard of CM during the lactation were identified, such as parity, calving season, herd somatic cell score, pasture access, fore-stripping, and proportion of treated cases of CM in a herd. The analysis showed that most of the predictors had a strong effect early in lactation and also demonstrated substantial variation in the baseline hazard among cows and between herds. A small simulation study for a setting similar to the real data was conducted to evaluate the Poisson maximum likelihood estimation approach with both Gaussian quadrature method and Laplace approximation. Further, the performance of the two methods was compared with the performance of a widely used estimation
Vazquez, A I; Gianola, D; Bates, D; Weigel, K A; Heringstad, B
2009-02-01
Clinical mastitis is typically coded as presence/absence during some period of exposure, and records are analyzed with linear or binary data models. Because presence includes cows with multiple episodes, there is loss of information when a count is treated as a binary response. The Poisson model is designed for counting random variables, and although it is used extensively in epidemiology of mastitis, it has rarely been used for studying the genetics of mastitis. Many models have been proposed for genetic analysis of mastitis, but they have not been formally compared. The main goal of this study was to compare linear (Gaussian), Bernoulli (with logit link), and Poisson models for the purpose of genetic evaluation of sires for mastitis in dairy cattle. The response variables were clinical mastitis (CM; 0, 1) and number of CM cases (NCM; 0, 1, 2, ..). Data consisted of records on 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Red sires distributed over 5,286 herds. Predictive ability of models was assessed via a 3-fold cross-validation using mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end-point. Between-sire variance estimates for NCM were 0.065 in Poisson and 0.007 in the linear model. For CM the between-sire variance was 0.093 in logit and 0.003 in the linear model. The ratio between herd and sire variances for the models with NCM response was 4.6 and 3.5 for Poisson and linear, respectively, and for model for CM was 3.7 in both logit and linear models. The MSEP for all cows was similar. However, within healthy animals, MSEP was 0.085 (Poisson), 0.090 (linear for NCM), 0.053 (logit), and 0.056 (linear for CM). For mastitic animals the MSEP values were 1.206 (Poisson), 1.185 (linear for NCM response), 1.333 (logit), and 1.319 (linear for CM response). The models for count variables had a better performance when predicting diseased animals and also had a similar performance between them. Logit and linear models for CM had better predictive ability for healthy
A Poisson Log-Normal Model for Constructing Gene Covariation Network Using RNA-seq Data.
Choi, Yoonha; Coram, Marc; Peng, Jie; Tang, Hua
2017-07-01
Constructing expression networks using transcriptomic data is an effective approach for studying gene regulation. A popular approach for constructing such a network is based on the Gaussian graphical model (GGM), in which an edge between a pair of genes indicates that the expression levels of these two genes are conditionally dependent, given the expression levels of all other genes. However, GGMs are not appropriate for non-Gaussian data, such as those generated in RNA-seq experiments. We propose a novel statistical framework that maximizes a penalized likelihood, in which the observed count data follow a Poisson log-normal distribution. To overcome the computational challenges, we use Laplace's method to approximate the likelihood and its gradients, and apply the alternating directions method of multipliers to find the penalized maximum likelihood estimates. The proposed method is evaluated and compared with GGMs using both simulated and real RNA-seq data. The proposed method shows improved performance in detecting edges that represent covarying pairs of genes, particularly for edges connecting low-abundant genes and edges around regulatory hubs.
El-Basyouny, Karim; Barua, Sudip; Islam, Md Tazul
2014-12-01
Previous research shows that various weather elements have significant effects on crash occurrence and risk; however, little is known about how these elements affect different crash types. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of weather elements and sudden extreme snow or rain weather changes on crash type. Multivariate models were used for seven crash types using five years of daily weather and crash data collected for the entire City of Edmonton. In addition, the yearly trend and random variation of parameters across the years were analyzed by using four different modeling formulations. The proposed models were estimated in a full Bayesian context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The multivariate Poisson lognormal model with yearly varying coefficients provided the best fit for the data according to Deviance Information Criteria. Overall, results showed that temperature and snowfall were statistically significant with intuitive signs (crashes decrease with increasing temperature; crashes increase as snowfall intensity increases) for all crash types, while rainfall was mostly insignificant. Previous snow showed mixed results, being statistically significant and positively related to certain crash types, while negatively related or insignificant in other cases. Maximum wind gust speed was found mostly insignificant with a few exceptions that were positively related to crash type. Major snow or rain events following a dry weather condition were highly significant and positively related to three crash types: Follow-Too-Close, Stop-Sign-Violation, and Ran-Off-Road crashes. The day-of-the-week dummy variables were statistically significant, indicating a possible weekly variation in exposure. Transportation authorities might use the above results to improve road safety by providing drivers with information regarding the risk of certain crash types for a particular weather condition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Müller, Hannes; Schümberg, Sabine; Zha, Tingting; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph
2018-07-01
To simulate the impacts of within-storm rainfall variabilities on fast hydrological processes, long precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are required. Due to limited availability of observed data such time series are typically obtained from stochastic models. However, most existing rainfall models are limited in their ability to conserve rainfall event statistics which are relevant for hydrological processes. Poisson rectangular pulse models are widely applied to generate long time series of alternating precipitation events durations and mean intensities as well as interstorm period durations. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascade (MRC) models are used to disaggregate precipitation time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. To overcome the inconsistencies between the temporal structure of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the MRC model, we developed a new coupling approach by introducing two modifications to the MRC model. These modifications comprise (a) a modified cascade model ("constrained cascade") which preserves the event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular model by constraining the first and last interval of a precipitation event to contain precipitation and (b) continuous sigmoid functions of the multiplicative weights to consider the scale-dependency in the disaggregation of precipitation events of different durations. The constrained cascade model was evaluated in its ability to disaggregate observed precipitation events in comparison to existing MRC models. For that, we used a 20-year record of hourly precipitation at six stations across Germany. The constrained cascade model showed a pronounced better agreement with the observed data in terms of both the temporal pattern of the precipitation time series (e.g. the dry and wet spell durations and autocorrelations) and event characteristics (e.g. intra-event intermittency and intensity fluctuation within events). The constrained cascade model also
Mean electrostatic and Poisson-Boltzmann models for multicomponent transport through compacted clay
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Steefel, C.I.; Galindez, J.M.
2012-01-01
Document available in extended abstract form only. Electrical double layer effects in the pore space of clays become increasingly important as the level of compaction increases and intergrain and interlayer spacings shift towards the range of nano-meters. At such scales, solute transport can no longer be explained by concentration gradients alone and it becomes necessary to include the electrostatic effects on chemical potentials. In fact, the electrical double layer (EDL) that develops in the neighborhood of the negatively charged clay surfaces can extend well into the aqueous phase, effectively constraining the space available to anions (known as anion exclusion), thus distorting the spatial distribution of ionic species in solution. In this study, we make use of two approaches for addressing the accumulation and transport of charged ionic species in the electrical double layers of compacted bentonite: 1) a mean electrostatic approach based on the assumption of Donnan equilibrium, and 2) a 2D numerical approach based on the multicomponent Poisson-Nernst-Planck (NPP) set of equations. For the mean electrostatic or Donnan approach to the electrical double layer [1], two options are considered: 1) a model in which surface complexation in the Stern layer may partly balance the fixed charge of the montmorillonite making up the bentonite buffer, and 2) a model in which the fixed mineral charge is balanced completely by the diffuse layer. In the mean electrostatic approach, one additional equation that balances the charge between the Stern layer and the diffuse layer is added to the multicomponent reactive transport code CrunchFlow. The only additional unknown that is required is the mean electrostatic potential, although it may be necessary in certain cases to consider the volume (or width) of the electrical double layer as an additional implicit unknown. Both ions and neutral species may diffuse within the diffuse layer according to their gradients and species
Chen, Wansu; Shi, Jiaxiao; Qian, Lei; Azen, Stanley P
2014-06-26
To estimate relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes, the most popular model-based methods are the robust (also known as modified) Poisson and the log-binomial regression. Of the two methods, it is believed that the log-binomial regression yields more efficient estimators because it is maximum likelihood based, while the robust Poisson model may be less affected by outliers. Evidence to support the robustness of robust Poisson models in comparison with log-binomial models is very limited. In this study a simulation was conducted to evaluate the performance of the two methods in several scenarios where outliers existed. The findings indicate that for data coming from a population where the relationship between the outcome and the covariate was in a simple form (e.g. log-linear), the two models yielded comparable biases and mean square errors. However, if the true relationship contained a higher order term, the robust Poisson models consistently outperformed the log-binomial models even when the level of contamination is low. The robust Poisson models are more robust (or less sensitive) to outliers compared to the log-binomial models when estimating relative risks or risk ratios for common binary outcomes. Users should be aware of the limitations when choosing appropriate models to estimate relative risks or risk ratios.
An Erlang-like model using SDCCH dimensioning and reattempt ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Journal of Computer Science and Its Application. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 21, No 1 (2014) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.
Poisson-Nernst-Planck-Fermi theory for modeling biological ion channels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Jinn-Liang; Eisenberg, Bob
2014-01-01
A Poisson-Nernst-Planck-Fermi (PNPF) theory is developed for studying ionic transport through biological ion channels. Our goal is to deal with the finite size of particle using a Fermi like distribution without calculating the forces between the particles, because they are both expensive and tricky to compute. We include the steric effect of ions and water molecules with nonuniform sizes and interstitial voids, the correlation effect of crowded ions with different valences, and the screening effect of water molecules in an inhomogeneous aqueous electrolyte. Including the finite volume of water and the voids between particles is an important new part of the theory presented here. Fermi like distributions of all particle species are derived from the volume exclusion of classical particles. Volume exclusion and the resulting saturation phenomena are especially important to describe the binding and permeation mechanisms of ions in a narrow channel pore. The Gibbs free energy of the Fermi distribution reduces to that of a Boltzmann distribution when these effects are not considered. The classical Gibbs entropy is extended to a new entropy form — called Gibbs-Fermi entropy — that describes mixing configurations of all finite size particles and voids in a thermodynamic system where microstates do not have equal probabilities. The PNPF model describes the dynamic flow of ions, water molecules, as well as voids with electric fields and protein charges. The model also provides a quantitative mean-field description of the charge/space competition mechanism of particles within the highly charged and crowded channel pore. The PNPF results are in good accord with experimental currents recorded in a 10 8 -fold range of Ca 2+ concentrations. The results illustrate the anomalous mole fraction effect, a signature of L-type calcium channels. Moreover, numerical results concerning water density, dielectric permittivity, void volume, and steric energy provide useful details to
Xie, Dexuan; Jiang, Yi
2018-05-01
This paper reports a nonuniform ionic size nonlocal Poisson-Fermi double-layer model (nuNPF) and a uniform ionic size nonlocal Poisson-Fermi double-layer model (uNPF) for an electrolyte mixture of multiple ionic species, variable voltages on electrodes, and variable induced charges on boundary segments. The finite element solvers of nuNPF and uNPF are developed and applied to typical double-layer tests defined on a rectangular box, a hollow sphere, and a hollow rectangle with a charged post. Numerical results show that nuNPF can significantly improve the quality of the ionic concentrations and electric fields generated from uNPF, implying that the effect of nonuniform ion sizes is a key consideration in modeling the double-layer structure.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shilong Li
2018-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce a class of stochastic interest model driven by a compoundPoisson process and a Brownian motion, in which the jumping times of force of interest obeyscompound Poisson process and the continuous tiny fluctuations are described by Brownian motion, andthe adjustment in each jump of interest force is assumed to be random. Based on the proposed interestmodel, we discuss the expected discounted function, the validity of the model and actuarial presentvalues of life annuities and life insurances under different parameters and distribution settings. Ournumerical results show actuarial values could be sensitive to the parameters and distribution settings,which shows the importance of introducing this kind interest model.
Sohn, J. L.; Heinrich, J. C.
1990-01-01
The calculation of pressures when the penalty-function approximation is used in finite-element solutions of laminar incompressible flows is addressed. A Poisson equation for the pressure is formulated that involves third derivatives of the velocity field. The second derivatives appearing in the weak formulation of the Poisson equation are calculated from the C0 velocity approximation using a least-squares method. The present scheme is shown to be efficient, free of spurious oscillations, and accurate. Examples of applications are given and compared with results obtained using mixed formulations.
A Family of Poisson Processes for Use in Stochastic Models of Precipitation
Penland, C.
2013-12-01
Both modified Poisson processes and compound Poisson processes can be relevant to stochastic parameterization of precipitation. This presentation compares the dynamical properties of these systems and discusses the physical situations in which each might be appropriate. If the parameters describing either class of systems originate in hydrodynamics, then proper consideration of stochastic calculus is required during numerical implementation of the parameterization. It is shown here that an improper numerical treatment can have severe implications for estimating rainfall distributions, particularly in the tails of the distributions and, thus, on the frequency of extreme events.
Modeling spiking behavior of neurons with time-dependent Poisson processes.
Shinomoto, S; Tsubo, Y
2001-10-01
Three kinds of interval statistics, as represented by the coefficient of variation, the skewness coefficient, and the correlation coefficient of consecutive intervals, are evaluated for three kinds of time-dependent Poisson processes: pulse regulated, sinusoidally regulated, and doubly stochastic. Among these three processes, the sinusoidally regulated and doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the case when the spike rate varies slowly compared with the mean interval between spikes, are found to be consistent with the three statistical coefficients exhibited by data recorded from neurons in the prefrontal cortex of monkeys.
Yang, Sejung; Lee, Byung-Uk
2015-01-01
In certain image acquisitions processes, like in fluorescence microscopy or astronomy, only a limited number of photons can be collected due to various physical constraints. The resulting images suffer from signal dependent noise, which can be modeled as a Poisson distribution, and a low signal-to-noise ratio. However, the majority of research on noise reduction algorithms focuses on signal independent Gaussian noise. In this paper, we model noise as a combination of Poisson and Gaussian probability distributions to construct a more accurate model and adopt the contourlet transform which provides a sparse representation of the directional components in images. We also apply hidden Markov models with a framework that neatly describes the spatial and interscale dependencies which are the properties of transformation coefficients of natural images. In this paper, an effective denoising algorithm for Poisson-Gaussian noise is proposed using the contourlet transform, hidden Markov models and noise estimation in the transform domain. We supplement the algorithm by cycle spinning and Wiener filtering for further improvements. We finally show experimental results with simulations and fluorescence microscopy images which demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed approach. PMID:26352138
Birth and Death Process Modeling Leads to the Poisson Distribution: A Journey Worth Taking
Rash, Agnes M.; Winkel, Brian J.
2009-01-01
This paper describes details of development of the general birth and death process from which we can extract the Poisson process as a special case. This general process is appropriate for a number of courses and units in courses and can enrich the study of mathematics for students as it touches and uses a diverse set of mathematical topics, e.g.,…
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, Li-Na; Liu, Fu-Hu; Lacey, Roy A.
2016-01-01
Experimental results of the transverse-momentum distributions of φ mesons and Ω hyperons produced in gold-gold (Au-Au) collisions with different centrality intervals, measured by the STAR Collaboration at different energies (7.7, 11.5, 19.6, 27, and 39 GeV) in the beam energy scan (BES) program at the relativistic heavy-ion collider (RHIC), are approximately described by the single Erlang distribution and the two-component Schwinger mechanism. Moreover, the STAR experimental transverse-momentum distributions of negatively charged particles, produced in Au-Au collisions at RHIC BES energies, are approximately described by the two-component Erlang distribution and the single Tsallis statistics. The excitation functions of free parameters are obtained from the fit to the experimental data. A weak softest point in the string tension in Ω hyperon spectra is observed at 7.7 GeV. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li-Na Gao
2016-01-01
Full Text Available We study the transverse momentum spectra of J/ψ and Υ mesons by using two methods: the two-component Erlang distribution and the two-component Schwinger mechanism. The results obtained by the two methods are compared and found to be in agreement with the experimental data of proton-proton (pp, proton-lead (p-Pb, and lead-lead (Pb-Pb collisions measured by the LHCb and ALICE Collaborations at the large hadron collider (LHC. The related parameters such as the mean transverse momentum contributed by each parton in the first (second component in the two-component Erlang distribution and the string tension between two partons in the first (second component in the two-component Schwinger mechanism are extracted.
Che Awang, Aznida; Azah Samat, Nor
2017-09-01
Leptospirosis is a disease caused by the infection of pathogenic species from the genus of Leptospira. Human can be infected by the leptospirosis from direct or indirect exposure to the urine of infected animals. The excretion of urine from the animal host that carries pathogenic Leptospira causes the soil or water to be contaminated. Therefore, people can become infected when they are exposed to contaminated soil and water by cut on the skin as well as open wound. It also can enter the human body by mucous membrane such nose, eyes and mouth, for example by splashing contaminated water or urine into the eyes or swallowing contaminated water or food. Currently, there is no vaccine available for the prevention or treatment of leptospirosis disease but this disease can be treated if it is diagnosed early to avoid any complication. The disease risk mapping is important in a way to control and prevention of disease. Using a good choice of statistical model will produce a good disease risk map. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for leptospirosis disease based initially on the most common statistic used in disease mapping called Standardized Morbidity Ratio (SMR) and Poisson-gamma model. This paper begins by providing a review of the SMR method and Poisson-gamma model, which we then applied to leptospirosis data of Kelantan, Malaysia. Both results are displayed and compared using graph, tables and maps. The result shows that the second method Poisson-gamma model produces better relative risk estimates compared to the SMR method. This is because the Poisson-gamma model can overcome the drawback of SMR where the relative risk will become zero when there is no observed leptospirosis case in certain regions. However, the Poisson-gamma model also faced problems where the covariate adjustment for this model is difficult and no possibility for allowing spatial correlation between risks in neighbouring areas. The problems of this model have
Liu, Jinn-Liang; Eisenberg, Bob
2018-02-01
The combinatorial explosion of empirical parameters in tens of thousands presents a tremendous challenge for extended Debye-Hückel models to calculate activity coefficients of aqueous mixtures of the most important salts in chemistry. The explosion of parameters originates from the phenomenological extension of the Debye-Hückel theory that does not take steric and correlation effects of ions and water into account. By contrast, the Poisson-Fermi theory developed in recent years treats ions and water molecules as nonuniform hard spheres of any size with interstitial voids and includes ion-water and ion-ion correlations. We present a Poisson-Fermi model and numerical methods for calculating the individual or mean activity coefficient of electrolyte solutions with any arbitrary number of ionic species in a large range of salt concentrations and temperatures. For each activity-concentration curve, we show that the Poisson-Fermi model requires only three unchanging parameters at most to well fit the corresponding experimental data. The three parameters are associated with the Born radius of the solvation energy of an ion in electrolyte solution that changes with salt concentrations in a highly nonlinear manner.
Yan, David
This thesis presents the one-dimensional equations, numerical method and simulations of a model to characterize the dynamical operation of an electrochemical cell. This model extends the current state-of-the art in that it accounts, in a primitive way, for the physics of the electrolyte/electrode interface and incorporates diffuse-charge dynamics, temperature coupling, surface coverage, and polarization phenomena. The one-dimensional equations account for a system with one or two mobile ions of opposite charge, and the electrode reaction we consider (when one is needed) is a one-electron electrodeposition reaction. Though the modeled system is far from representing a realistic electrochemical device, our results show a range of dynamics and behaviors which have not been observed previously, and explore the numerical challenges required when adding more complexity to a model. Furthermore, the basic transport equations (which are developed in three spatial dimensions) can in future accomodate the inclusion of additional physics, and coupling to more complex boundary conditions that incorporate two-dimensional surface phenomena and multi-rate reactions. In the model, the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations are used to model diffusion and electromigration in an electrolyte, and the generalized Frumkin-Butler-Volmer equation is used to model reaction kinetics at electrodes. An energy balance equation is derived and coupled to the diffusion-migration equation. The model also includes dielectric polarization effects by introducing different values of the dielectric permittivity in different regions of the bulk, as well as accounting for surface coverage effects due to adsorption, and finite size "crowding", or steric effects. Advection effects are not modeled but could in future be incorporated. In order to solve the coupled PDE's, we use a variable step size second order scheme in time and finite differencing in space. Numerical tests are performed on a simplified system and
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Jordanova, P.; Dušek, Jiří; Stehlík, M.
2013-01-01
Roč. 128, OCT 15 (2013), s. 124-134 ISSN 0169-7439 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1151; GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : environmental chemistry * ebullition of methane * mixed poisson processes * renewal process * pareto distribution * moving average process * robust statistics * sedge–grass marsh Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.381, year: 2013
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lyon, B.F.; Holmes, J.A.; Wilbert, K.A.
1995-01-01
A risk assessment methodology is described in this paper to compare risks associated with immediate or near-term retrieval of transuranic (TRU) waste drums from bermed storage versus delayed retrieval. Assuming a Poisson process adequately describes corrosion, significant breaching of drums is expected to begin at - 15 and 24 yr for pitting and general corrosion, respectively. Because of this breaching, more risk will be incurred by delayed than by immediate retrieval
Heil, Peter; Matysiak, Artur; Neubauer, Heinrich
2017-09-01
Thresholds for detecting sounds in quiet decrease with increasing sound duration in every species studied. The neural mechanisms underlying this trade-off, often referred to as temporal integration, are not fully understood. Here, we probe the human auditory system with a large set of tone stimuli differing in duration, shape of the temporal amplitude envelope, duration of silent gaps between bursts, and frequency. Duration was varied by varying the plateau duration of plateau-burst (PB) stimuli, the duration of the onsets and offsets of onset-offset (OO) stimuli, and the number of identical bursts of multiple-burst (MB) stimuli. Absolute thresholds for a large number of ears (>230) were measured using a 3-interval-3-alternative forced choice (3I-3AFC) procedure. Thresholds decreased with increasing sound duration in a manner that depended on the temporal envelope. Most commonly, thresholds for MB stimuli were highest followed by thresholds for OO and PB stimuli of corresponding durations. Differences in the thresholds for MB and OO stimuli and in the thresholds for MB and PB stimuli, however, varied widely across ears, were negative in some ears, and were tightly correlated. We show that the variation and correlation of MB-OO and MB-PB threshold differences are linked to threshold microstructure, which affects the relative detectability of the sidebands of the MB stimuli and affects estimates of the bandwidth of auditory filters. We also found that thresholds for MB stimuli increased with increasing duration of the silent gaps between bursts. We propose a new model and show that it accurately accounts for our results and does so considerably better than a leaky-integrator-of-intensity model and a probabilistic model proposed by others. Our model is based on the assumption that sensory events are generated by a Poisson point process with a low rate in the absence of stimulation and higher, time-varying rates in the presence of stimulation. A subject in a 3I-3AFC
Ye, Meixia; Wang, Zhong; Wang, Yaqun; Wu, Rongling
2015-03-01
Dynamic changes of gene expression reflect an intrinsic mechanism of how an organism responds to developmental and environmental signals. With the increasing availability of expression data across a time-space scale by RNA-seq, the classification of genes as per their biological function using RNA-seq data has become one of the most significant challenges in contemporary biology. Here we develop a clustering mixture model to discover distinct groups of genes expressed during a period of organ development. By integrating the density function of multivariate Poisson distribution, the model accommodates the discrete property of read counts characteristic of RNA-seq data. The temporal dependence of gene expression is modeled by the first-order autoregressive process. The model is implemented with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and model selection to determine the optimal number of gene clusters and obtain the estimates of Poisson parameters that describe the pattern of time-dependent expression of genes from each cluster. The model has been demonstrated by analyzing a real data from an experiment aimed to link the pattern of gene expression to catkin development in white poplar. The usefulness of the model has been validated through computer simulation. The model provides a valuable tool for clustering RNA-seq data, facilitating our global view of expression dynamics and understanding of gene regulation mechanisms. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara M
2013-11-01
This work examines the relationship between 3-year pedestrian crash counts across Census tracts in Austin, Texas, and various land use, network, and demographic attributes, such as land use balance, residents' access to commercial land uses, sidewalk density, lane-mile densities (by roadway class), and population and employment densities (by type). The model specification allows for region-specific heterogeneity, correlation across response types, and spatial autocorrelation via a Poisson-based multivariate conditional auto-regressive (CAR) framework and is estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Least-squares regression estimates of walk-miles traveled per zone serve as the exposure measure. Here, the Poisson-lognormal multivariate CAR model outperforms an aspatial Poisson-lognormal multivariate model and a spatial model (without cross-severity correlation), both in terms of fit and inference. Positive spatial autocorrelation emerges across neighborhoods, as expected (due to latent heterogeneity or missing variables that trend in space, resulting in spatial clustering of crash counts). In comparison, the positive aspatial, bivariate cross correlation of severe (fatal or incapacitating) and non-severe crash rates reflects latent covariates that have impacts across severity levels but are more local in nature (such as lighting conditions and local sight obstructions), along with spatially lagged cross correlation. Results also suggest greater mixing of residences and commercial land uses is associated with higher pedestrian crash risk across different severity levels, ceteris paribus, presumably since such access produces more potential conflicts between pedestrian and vehicle movements. Interestingly, network densities show variable effects, and sidewalk provision is associated with lower severe-crash rates. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ayres, D R; Pereira, R J; Boligon, A A; Silva, F F; Schenkel, F S; Roso, V M; Albuquerque, L G
2013-12-01
Cattle resistance to ticks is measured by the number of ticks infesting the animal. The model used for the genetic analysis of cattle resistance to ticks frequently requires logarithmic transformation of the observations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive ability and goodness of fit of different models for the analysis of this trait in cross-bred Hereford x Nellore cattle. Three models were tested: a linear model using logarithmic transformation of the observations (MLOG); a linear model without transformation of the observations (MLIN); and a generalized linear Poisson model with residual term (MPOI). All models included the classificatory effects of contemporary group and genetic group and the covariates age of animal at the time of recording and individual heterozygosis, as well as additive genetic effects as random effects. Heritability estimates were 0.08 ± 0.02, 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.14 ± 0.04 for MLIN, MLOG and MPOI models, respectively. The model fit quality, verified by deviance information criterion (DIC) and residual mean square, indicated fit superiority of MPOI model. The predictive ability of the models was compared by validation test in independent sample. The MPOI model was slightly superior in terms of goodness of fit and predictive ability, whereas the correlations between observed and predicted tick counts were practically the same for all models. A higher rank correlation between breeding values was observed between models MLOG and MPOI. Poisson model can be used for the selection of tick-resistant animals. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Schmidt, Philip J; Pintar, Katarina D M; Fazil, Aamir M; Topp, Edward
2013-09-01
Dose-response models are the essential link between exposure assessment and computed risk values in quantitative microbial risk assessment, yet the uncertainty that is inherent to computed risks because the dose-response model parameters are estimated using limited epidemiological data is rarely quantified. Second-order risk characterization approaches incorporating uncertainty in dose-response model parameters can provide more complete information to decisionmakers by separating variability and uncertainty to quantify the uncertainty in computed risks. Therefore, the objective of this work is to develop procedures to sample from posterior distributions describing uncertainty in the parameters of exponential and beta-Poisson dose-response models using Bayes's theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (in OpenBUGS). The theoretical origins of the beta-Poisson dose-response model are used to identify a decomposed version of the model that enables Bayesian analysis without the need to evaluate Kummer confluent hypergeometric functions. Herein, it is also established that the beta distribution in the beta-Poisson dose-response model cannot address variation among individual pathogens, criteria to validate use of the conventional approximation to the beta-Poisson model are proposed, and simple algorithms to evaluate actual beta-Poisson probabilities of infection are investigated. The developed MCMC procedures are applied to analysis of a case study data set, and it is demonstrated that an important region of the posterior distribution of the beta-Poisson dose-response model parameters is attributable to the absence of low-dose data. This region includes beta-Poisson models for which the conventional approximation is especially invalid and in which many beta distributions have an extreme shape with questionable plausibility. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of the Public Health Agency of Canada.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asfaw, Zeytu Gashaw; Lindqvist, Bo Henry
2015-01-01
For many applications of repairable systems, the minimal repair assumption, which leads to nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP), is not adequate. We review and study two extensions of the NHPP, the dynamic NHPP and the heterogeneous NHPP. Both extensions are motivated by specific aspects of potential applications. It has long been known, however, that the two paradigms are essentially indistinguishable in an analysis of failure data. We investigate the connection between the two approaches for extending NHPP models, both theoretically and numerically in a data example and a simulation study. - Highlights: • Review of dynamic extension of a minimal repair model (LEYP), introduced by Le Gat. • Derivation of likelihood function and comparison to NHPP model with heterogeneity. • Likelihood functions and conditional intensities are similar for the models. • ML estimation is considered for both models using a power law baseline. • A simulation study illustrates and confirms findings of the theoretical study
Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Markussen, Bo; Bundesen, Claus
2012-06-01
The authors propose and test a simple model of the time course of visual identification of briefly presented, mutually confusable single stimuli in pure accuracy tasks. The model implies that during stimulus analysis, tentative categorizations that stimulus i belongs to category j are made at a constant Poisson rate, v(i, j). The analysis is continued until the stimulus disappears, and the overt response is based on the categorization made the greatest number of times. The model was evaluated by Monte Carlo tests of goodness of fit against observed probability distributions of responses in two extensive experiments and also by quantifications of the information loss of the model compared with the observed data by use of information theoretic measures. The model provided a close fit to individual data on identification of digits and an apparently perfect fit to data on identification of Landolt rings.
Zhang, Ling Yu; Liu, Zhao Gang
2017-12-01
Based on the data collected from 108 permanent plots of the forest resources survey in Maoershan Experimental Forest Farm during 2004-2016, this study investigated the spatial distribution of recruitment trees in natural secondary forest by global Poisson regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) with four bandwidths of 2.5, 5, 10 and 15 km. The simulation effects of the 5 regressions and the factors influencing the recruitment trees in stands were analyzed, a description was given to the spatial autocorrelation of the regression residuals on global and local levels using Moran's I. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the number of natural secondary forest recruitment was significantly influenced by stands and topographic factors, especially average DBH. The GWPR model with small scale (2.5 km) had high accuracy of model fitting, a large range of model parameter estimates was generated, and the localized spatial distribution effect of the model parameters was obtained. The GWPR model at small scale (2.5 and 5 km) had produced a small range of model residuals, and the stability of the model was improved. The global spatial auto-correlation of the GWPR model residual at the small scale (2.5 km) was the lowe-st, and the local spatial auto-correlation was significantly reduced, in which an ideal spatial distribution pattern of small clusters with different observations was formed. The local model at small scale (2.5 km) was much better than the global model in the simulation effect on the spatial distribution of recruitment tree number.
Derivation of Poisson and Nernst-Planck equations in a bath and channel from a molecular model.
Schuss, Z; Nadler, B; Eisenberg, R S
2001-09-01
Permeation of ions from one electrolytic solution to another, through a protein channel, is a biological process of considerable importance. Permeation occurs on a time scale of micro- to milliseconds, far longer than the femtosecond time scales of atomic motion. Direct simulations of atomic dynamics are not yet possible for such long-time scales; thus, averaging is unavoidable. The question is what and how to average. In this paper, we average a Langevin model of ionic motion in a bulk solution and protein channel. The main result is a coupled system of averaged Poisson and Nernst-Planck equations (CPNP) involving conditional and unconditional charge densities and conditional potentials. The resulting NP equations contain the averaged force on a single ion, which is the sum of two components. The first component is the gradient of a conditional electric potential that is the solution of Poisson's equation with conditional and permanent charge densities and boundary conditions of the applied voltage. The second component is the self-induced force on an ion due to surface charges induced only by that ion at dielectric interfaces. The ion induces surface polarization charge that exerts a significant force on the ion itself, not present in earlier PNP equations. The proposed CPNP system is not complete, however, because the electric potential satisfies Poisson's equation with conditional charge densities, conditioned on the location of an ion, while the NP equations contain unconditional densities. The conditional densities are closely related to the well-studied pair-correlation functions of equilibrium statistical mechanics. We examine a specific closure relation, which on the one hand replaces the conditional charge densities by the unconditional ones in the Poisson equation, and on the other hand replaces the self-induced force in the NP equation by an effective self-induced force. This effective self-induced force is nearly zero in the baths but is approximately
Wang, D.; Naouar, N.; Vidal-Salle, E.; Boisse, P.
2018-05-01
In meso-scale finite element modeling, the yarns of the reinforcement are considered to be solids made of a continuous material in contact with their neighbors. The present paper consider the mechanical behavior of these yarns that can happen for some loadings of the reinforcement. The yarns present a specific mechanical behavior when under longitudinal compression because they are made up of a large number of fibers, Local buckling of the fibers causes the compressive stiffness of the continuous material representing the yarn to be much weaker than when under tension. In addition, longitudinal compression causes an important transverse expansion. It is shown that the transverse expansion can be depicted by a Poisson ratio that remained roughly constant when the yarn length and the compression strain varied. Buckling of the fibers significantly increases the transverse dimensions of the yarn which leads to a large Poisson ratio (up to 12 for a yarn analyzed in the present study). Meso-scale finite element simulations of reinforcements with binder yarns submitted to longitudinal compression showed that these improvements led to results in good agreement with micro-CT analyses.
Islam, Mohammad Mafijul; Alam, Morshed; Tariquzaman, Md; Kabir, Mohammad Alamgir; Pervin, Rokhsona; Begum, Munni; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain
2013-01-08
Malnutrition is one of the principal causes of child mortality in developing countries including Bangladesh. According to our knowledge, most of the available studies, that addressed the issue of malnutrition among under-five children, considered the categorical (dichotomous/polychotomous) outcome variables and applied logistic regression (binary/multinomial) to find their predictors. In this study malnutrition variable (i.e. outcome) is defined as the number of under-five malnourished children in a family, which is a non-negative count variable. The purposes of the study are (i) to demonstrate the applicability of the generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model as an alternative of other statistical methods and (ii) to find some predictors of this outcome variable. The data is extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2007. Briefly, this survey employs a nationally representative sample which is based on a two-stage stratified sample of households. A total of 4,460 under-five children is analysed using various statistical techniques namely Chi-square test and GPR model. The GPR model (as compared to the standard Poisson regression and negative Binomial regression) is found to be justified to study the above-mentioned outcome variable because of its under-dispersion (variance variable namely mother's education, father's education, wealth index, sanitation status, source of drinking water, and total number of children ever born to a woman. Consistencies of our findings in light of many other studies suggest that the GPR model is an ideal alternative of other statistical models to analyse the number of under-five malnourished children in a family. Strategies based on significant predictors may improve the nutritional status of children in Bangladesh.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
La Russa, D [The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, Ottawa, ON (Canada)
2015-06-15
Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributions found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.
Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.
2018-04-01
Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.
Alhdiri, Maryam Ahmed; Samat, Nor Azah; Mohamed, Zulkifley
2017-03-01
Cancer is the most rapidly spreading disease in the world, especially in developing countries, including Libya. Cancer represents a significant burden on patients, families, and their societies. This disease can be controlled if detected early. Therefore, disease mapping has recently become an important method in the fields of public health research and disease epidemiology. The correct choice of statistical model is a very important step to producing a good map of a disease. Libya was selected to perform this work and to examine its geographical variation in the incidence of lung cancer. The objective of this paper is to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer. Four statistical models to estimate the relative risk for lung cancer and population censuses of the study area for the time period 2006 to 2011 were used in this work. They are initially known as Standardized Morbidity Ratio, which is the most popular statistic, which used in the field of disease mapping, Poisson-gamma model, which is one of the earliest applications of Bayesian methodology, Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and Mixture model. As an initial step, this study begins by providing a review of all proposed models, which we then apply to lung cancer data in Libya. Maps, tables and graph, goodness-of-fit (GOF) were used to compare and present the preliminary results. This GOF is common in statistical modelling to compare fitted models. The main general results presented in this study show that the Poisson-gamma model, BYM model, and Mixture model can overcome the problem of the first model (SMR) when there is no observed lung cancer case in certain districts. Results show that the Mixture model is most robust and provides better relative risk estimates across a range of models. Creative Commons Attribution License
Minois, Nathan; Lauwers-Cances, Valérie; Savy, Stéphanie; Attal, Michel; Andrieu, Sandrine; Anisimov, Vladimir; Savy, Nicolas
2017-10-15
At the design of clinical trial operation, a question of a paramount interest is how long it takes to recruit a given number of patients. Modelling the recruitment dynamics is the necessary step to answer this question. Poisson-gamma model provides very convenient, flexible and realistic approach. This model allows predicting the trial duration using data collected at an interim time with very good accuracy. A natural question arises: how to evaluate the parameters of recruitment model before the trial begins? The question is harder to handle as there are no recruitment data available for this trial. However, if there exist similar completed trials, it is appealing to use data from these trials to investigate feasibility of the recruitment process. In this paper, the authors explore the recruitment data of two similar clinical trials (Intergroupe Francais du Myélome 2005 and 2009). It is shown that the natural idea of plugging the historical rates estimated from the completed trial in the same centres of the new trial for predicting recruitment is not a relevant strategy. In contrast, using the parameters of a gamma distribution of the rates estimated from the completed trial in the recruitment dynamic model of the new trial provides reasonable predictive properties with relevant confidence intervals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lusi Eka Afri
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Regresi Binomial Negatif dan regresi Conway-Maxwell-Poisson merupakan solusi untuk mengatasi overdispersi pada regresi Poisson. Kedua model tersebut merupakan perluasan dari model regresi Poisson. Menurut Hinde dan Demetrio (2007, terdapat beberapa kemungkinan terjadi overdispersi pada regresi Poisson yaitu keragaman hasil pengamatan keragaman individu sebagai komponen yang tidak dijelaskan oleh model, korelasi antar respon individu, terjadinya pengelompokan dalam populasi dan peubah teramati yang dihilangkan. Akibatnya dapat menyebabkan pendugaan galat baku yang terlalu rendah dan akan menghasilkan pendugaan parameter yang bias ke bawah (underestimate. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingan model Regresi Binomial Negatif dan model regresi Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson dalam mengatasi overdispersi pada data distribusi Poisson berdasarkan statistik uji devians. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari dua sumber data yaitu data simulasi dan data kasus terapan. Data simulasi yang digunakan diperoleh dengan membangkitkan data berdistribusi Poisson yang mengandung overdispersi dengan menggunakan bahasa pemrograman R berdasarkan karakteristik data berupa , peluang munculnya nilai nol (p serta ukuran sampel (n. Data dibangkitkan berguna untuk mendapatkan estimasi koefisien parameter pada regresi binomial negatif dan COM-Poisson. Kata Kunci: overdispersi, regresi binomial negatif, regresi Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Negative binomial regression and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson regression could be used to overcome over dispersion on Poisson regression. Both models are the extension of Poisson regression model. According to Hinde and Demetrio (2007, there will be some over dispersion on Poisson regression: observed variance in individual variance cannot be described by a model, correlation among individual response, and the population group and the observed variables are eliminated. Consequently, this can lead to low standard error
Grøn, Randi; Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K
2016-03-30
Poisson regression is an important tool in register-based epidemiology where it is used to study the association between exposure variables and event rates. In this paper, we will discuss the situation with 'large n and small p', where n is the sample size and p is the number of available covariates. Specifically, we are concerned with modeling options when there are time-varying covariates that can have time-varying effects. One problem is that tests of the proportional hazards assumption, of no interactions between exposure and other observed variables, or of other modeling assumptions have large power due to the large sample size and will often indicate statistical significance even for numerically small deviations that are unimportant for the subject matter. Another problem is that information on important confounders may be unavailable. In practice, this situation may lead to simple working models that are then likely misspecified. To support and improve conclusions drawn from such models, we discuss methods for sensitivity analysis, for estimation of average exposure effects using aggregated data, and a semi-parametric bootstrap method to obtain robust standard errors. The methods are illustrated using data from the Danish national registries investigating the diabetes incidence for individuals treated with antipsychotics compared with the general unexposed population. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Molavi Tabrizi, Amirhossein; Goossens, Spencer; Mehdizadeh Rahimi, Ali; Cooper, Christopher D; Knepley, Matthew G; Bardhan, Jaydeep P
2017-06-13
We extend the linearized Poisson-Boltzmann (LPB) continuum electrostatic model for molecular solvation to address charge-hydration asymmetry. Our new solvation-layer interface condition (SLIC)/LPB corrects for first-shell response by perturbing the traditional continuum-theory interface conditions at the protein-solvent and the Stern-layer interfaces. We also present a GPU-accelerated treecode implementation capable of simulating large proteins, and our results demonstrate that the new model exhibits significant accuracy improvements over traditional LPB models, while reducing the number of fitting parameters from dozens (atomic radii) to just five parameters, which have physical meanings related to first-shell water behavior at an uncharged interface. In particular, atom radii in the SLIC model are not optimized but uniformly scaled from their Lennard-Jones radii. Compared to explicit-solvent free-energy calculations of individual atoms in small molecules, SLIC/LPB is significantly more accurate than standard parametrizations (RMS error 0.55 kcal/mol for SLIC, compared to RMS error of 3.05 kcal/mol for standard LPB). On parametrizing the electrostatic model with a simple nonpolar component for total molecular solvation free energies, our model predicts octanol/water transfer free energies with an RMS error 1.07 kcal/mol. A more detailed assessment illustrates that standard continuum electrostatic models reproduce total charging free energies via a compensation of significant errors in atomic self-energies; this finding offers a window into improving the accuracy of Generalized-Born theories and other coarse-grained models. Most remarkably, the SLIC model also reproduces positive charging free energies for atoms in hydrophobic groups, whereas standard PB models are unable to generate positive charging free energies regardless of the parametrized radii. The GPU-accelerated solver is freely available online, as is a MATLAB implementation.
da Paz, I. G.; Soldati, Rodolfo; Cabral, L. A.; de Oliveira, J. G. G.; Sampaio, Marcos
2016-12-01
Recently there have been experimental results on Poisson spot matter-wave interferometry followed by theoretical models describing the relative importance of the wave and particle behaviors for the phenomenon. We propose an analytical theoretical model for Poisson's spot with matter waves based on the Babinet principle, in which we use the results for free propagation and single-slit diffraction. We take into account effects of loss of coherence and finite detection area using the propagator for a quantum particle interacting with an environment. We observe that the matter-wave Gouy phase plays a role in the existence of the central peak and thus corroborates the predominantly wavelike character of the Poisson's spot. Our model shows remarkable agreement with the experimental data for deuterium (D2) molecules.
Garcia, Jane Bernadette Denise M.; Esguerra, Jose Perico H.
2017-08-01
An approximate but closed-form expression for a Poisson-like steady state wealth distribution in a kinetic model of gambling was formulated from a finite number of its moments, which were generated from a βa,b(x) exchange distribution. The obtained steady-state wealth distributions have tails which are qualitatively similar to those observed in actual wealth distributions.
Biesheuvel, P.M.; Veen, van der M.; Norde, W.
2005-01-01
The equilibrium adsorption of polyelectrolytes with multiple types of ionizable groups is described using a modified Poisson-Boltzmann equation including charge regulation of both the polymer and the interface. A one-dimensional mean-field model is used in which the electrostatic potential is
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou Sumin; Das, Shiva; Wang Zhiheng; Marks, Lawrence B.
2004-01-01
The generalized equivalent uniform dose (GEUD) model uses a power-law formalism, where the outcome is related to the dose via a power law. We herein investigate the mathematical compatibility between this GEUD model and the Poisson statistics based tumor control probability (TCP) model. The GEUD and TCP formulations are combined and subjected to a compatibility constraint equation. This compatibility constraint equates tumor control probability from the original heterogeneous target dose distribution to that from the homogeneous dose from the GEUD formalism. It is shown that this constraint equation possesses a unique, analytical closed-form solution which relates radiation dose to the tumor cell survival fraction. It is further demonstrated that, when there is no positive threshold or finite critical dose in the tumor response to radiation, this relationship is not bounded within the realistic cell survival limits of 0%-100%. Thus, the GEUD and TCP formalisms are, in general, mathematically inconsistent. However, when a threshold dose or finite critical dose exists in the tumor response to radiation, there is a unique mathematical solution for the tumor cell survival fraction that allows the GEUD and TCP formalisms to coexist, provided that all portions of the tumor are confined within certain specific dose ranges
Using Poisson mixed-effects model to quantify transcript-level gene expression in RNA-Seq.
Hu, Ming; Zhu, Yu; Taylor, Jeremy M G; Liu, Jun S; Qin, Zhaohui S
2012-01-01
RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) is a powerful new technology for mapping and quantifying transcriptomes using ultra high-throughput next-generation sequencing technologies. Using deep sequencing, gene expression levels of all transcripts including novel ones can be quantified digitally. Although extremely promising, the massive amounts of data generated by RNA-Seq, substantial biases and uncertainty in short read alignment pose challenges for data analysis. In particular, large base-specific variation and between-base dependence make simple approaches, such as those that use averaging to normalize RNA-Seq data and quantify gene expressions, ineffective. In this study, we propose a Poisson mixed-effects (POME) model to characterize base-level read coverage within each transcript. The underlying expression level is included as a key parameter in this model. Since the proposed model is capable of incorporating base-specific variation as well as between-base dependence that affect read coverage profile throughout the transcript, it can lead to improved quantification of the true underlying expression level. POME can be freely downloaded at http://www.stat.purdue.edu/~yuzhu/pome.html. yuzhu@purdue.edu; zhaohui.qin@emory.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
Some findings on zero-inflated and hurdle poisson models for disease mapping.
Corpas-Burgos, Francisca; García-Donato, Gonzalo; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A
2018-05-27
Zero excess in the study of geographically referenced mortality data sets has been the focus of considerable attention in the literature, with zero-inflation being the most common procedure to handle this lack of fit. Although hurdle models have also been used in disease mapping studies, their use is more rare. We show in this paper that models using particular treatments of zero excesses are often required for achieving appropriate fits in regular mortality studies since, otherwise, geographical units with low expected counts are oversmoothed. However, as also shown, an indiscriminate treatment of zero excess may be unnecessary and has a problematic implementation. In this regard, we find that naive zero-inflation and hurdle models, without an explicit modeling of the probabilities of zeroes, do not fix zero excesses problems well enough and are clearly unsatisfactory. Results sharply suggest the need for an explicit modeling of the probabilities that should vary across areal units. Unfortunately, these more flexible modeling strategies can easily lead to improper posterior distributions as we prove in several theoretical results. Those procedures have been repeatedly used in the disease mapping literature, and one should bear these issues in mind in order to propose valid models. We finally propose several valid modeling alternatives according to the results mentioned that are suitable for fitting zero excesses. We show that those proposals fix zero excesses problems and correct the mentioned oversmoothing of risks in low populated units depicting geographic patterns more suited to the data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Nonlinear Poisson equation for heterogeneous media.
Hu, Langhua; Wei, Guo-Wei
2012-08-22
The Poisson equation is a widely accepted model for electrostatic analysis. However, the Poisson equation is derived based on electric polarizations in a linear, isotropic, and homogeneous dielectric medium. This article introduces a nonlinear Poisson equation to take into consideration of hyperpolarization effects due to intensive charges and possible nonlinear, anisotropic, and heterogeneous media. Variational principle is utilized to derive the nonlinear Poisson model from an electrostatic energy functional. To apply the proposed nonlinear Poisson equation for the solvation analysis, we also construct a nonpolar solvation energy functional based on the nonlinear Poisson equation by using the geometric measure theory. At a fixed temperature, the proposed nonlinear Poisson theory is extensively validated by the electrostatic analysis of the Kirkwood model and a set of 20 proteins, and the solvation analysis of a set of 17 small molecules whose experimental measurements are also available for a comparison. Moreover, the nonlinear Poisson equation is further applied to the solvation analysis of 21 compounds at different temperatures. Numerical results are compared to theoretical prediction, experimental measurements, and those obtained from other theoretical methods in the literature. A good agreement between our results and experimental data as well as theoretical results suggests that the proposed nonlinear Poisson model is a potentially useful model for electrostatic analysis involving hyperpolarization effects. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
(Quasi-)Poisson enveloping algebras
Yang, Yan-Hong; Yao, Yuan; Ye, Yu
2010-01-01
We introduce the quasi-Poisson enveloping algebra and Poisson enveloping algebra for a non-commutative Poisson algebra. We prove that for a non-commutative Poisson algebra, the category of quasi-Poisson modules is equivalent to the category of left modules over its quasi-Poisson enveloping algebra, and the category of Poisson modules is equivalent to the category of left modules over its Poisson enveloping algebra.
Functional form comparison between the population and the individual Poisson based TCP models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schinkel, C.; Stavreva, N.; Stavrev, P.; Carlone, M.; Fallone, B.G.
2007-01-01
In this work, the functional form similarity between the individual and fundamental population TCP models is investigated. Using the fact that both models can be expressed in terms of the geometric parameters γ 50 and D 50 , we show that they have almost identical functional form for values of γ 50 ≥1. The conceptual inadequacy of applying an individual model to clinical data is also discussed. A general individual response TCP expression is given, parameterized by D f and γ f - the dose corresponding to a control level of f, and the normalized slope at that point. It is shown that the dose-response may be interpreted as an individual response only if γ 50 is sufficiently high. Based on the functional form equivalency between the individual and the population TCP models, we discuss the possibility of applying the individual TCP model for the case of heterogeneous irradiations. Due to the fact that the fundamental population TCP model is derived for homogeneous irradiations only, we propose the use of the EUD, given by the generalized mean dose, when the fundamental population TCP model is used to fit clinical data. (author)
Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations
Antonio, K.; Bardoutsos, A.; Ouburg, W.
2015-01-01
Life insurers, pension funds, health care providers and social security institutions face increasing expenses due to continuing improvements of mortality rates. The actuarial and demographic literature has introduced a myriad of (deterministic and stochastic) models to forecast mortality rates of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabyano Fonseca Silva
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, an important and interesting alternative in the control of tick-infestation in cattle is to select resistant animals, and identify the respective quantitative trait loci (QTLs and DNA markers, for posterior use in breeding programs. The number of ticks/animal is characterized as a discrete-counting trait, which could potentially follow Poisson distribution. However, in the case of an excess of zeros, due to the occurrence of several noninfected animals, zero-inflated Poisson and generalized zero-inflated distribution (GZIP may provide a better description of the data. Thus, the objective here was to compare through simulation, Poisson and ZIP models (simple and generalized with classical approaches, for QTL mapping with counting phenotypes under different scenarios, and to apply these approaches to a QTL study of tick resistance in an F2 cattle (Gyr x Holstein population. It was concluded that, when working with zero-inflated data, it is recommendable to use the generalized and simple ZIP model for analysis. On the other hand, when working with data with zeros, but not zero-inflated, the Poisson model or a data-transformation-approach, such as square-root or Box-Cox transformation, are applicable.
Silva, Fabyano Fonseca; Tunin, Karen P.; Rosa, Guilherme J.M.; da Silva, Marcos V.B.; Azevedo, Ana Luisa Souza; da Silva Verneque, Rui; Machado, Marco Antonio; Packer, Irineu Umberto
2011-01-01
Now a days, an important and interesting alternative in the control of tick-infestation in cattle is to select resistant animals, and identify the respective quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and DNA markers, for posterior use in breeding programs. The number of ticks/animal is characterized as a discrete-counting trait, which could potentially follow Poisson distribution. However, in the case of an excess of zeros, due to the occurrence of several noninfected animals, zero-inflated Poisson and generalized zero-inflated distribution (GZIP) may provide a better description of the data. Thus, the objective here was to compare through simulation, Poisson and ZIP models (simple and generalized) with classical approaches, for QTL mapping with counting phenotypes under different scenarios, and to apply these approaches to a QTL study of tick resistance in an F2 cattle (Gyr × Holstein) population. It was concluded that, when working with zero-inflated data, it is recommendable to use the generalized and simple ZIP model for analysis. On the other hand, when working with data with zeros, but not zero-inflated, the Poisson model or a data-transformation-approach, such as square-root or Box-Cox transformation, are applicable. PMID:22215960
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Justin M Calabrese
Full Text Available It is well known that parasites are often highly aggregated on their hosts such that relatively few individuals host the large majority of parasites. When the parasites are vectors of infectious disease, a key consequence of this aggregation can be increased disease transmission rates. The cause of this aggregation, however, is much less clear, especially for parasites such as arthropod vectors, which generally spend only a short time on their hosts. Regression-based analyses of ticks on various hosts have focused almost exclusively on identifying the intrinsic host characteristics associated with large burdens, but these efforts have had mixed results; most host traits examined have some small influence, but none are key. An alternative approach, the Poisson-gamma mixture distribution, has often been used to describe aggregated parasite distributions in a range of host/macroparasite systems, but lacks a clear mechanistic basis. Here, we extend this framework by linking it to a general model of parasite accumulation. Then, focusing on blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis on mice (Peromyscus leucopus, we fit the extended model to the best currently available larval tick burden datasets via hierarchical Bayesian methods, and use it to explore the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on observed tick burdens. Our results suggest that simple bad luck-inhabiting a home range with high vector density-may play a much larger role in determining parasite burdens than is currently appreciated.
A compound Poisson EOQ model for perishable items with intermittent high and low demand periods
Boxma, O.J.; Perry, D.; Stadje, W.; Zacks, S.
2012-01-01
We consider a stochastic EOQ-type model, with demand operating in a two-state random environment. This environment alternates between exponentially distributed periods of high demand and generally distributed periods of low demand. The inventory level starts at some level q, and decreases according
A Multi-Model Stereo Similarity Function Based on Monogenic Signal Analysis in Poisson Scale Space
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jinjun Li
2011-01-01
Full Text Available A stereo similarity function based on local multi-model monogenic image feature descriptors (LMFD is proposed to match interest points and estimate disparity map for stereo images. Local multi-model monogenic image features include local orientation and instantaneous phase of the gray monogenic signal, local color phase of the color monogenic signal, and local mean colors in the multiscale color monogenic signal framework. The gray monogenic signal, which is the extension of analytic signal to gray level image using Dirac operator and Laplace equation, consists of local amplitude, local orientation, and instantaneous phase of 2D image signal. The color monogenic signal is the extension of monogenic signal to color image based on Clifford algebras. The local color phase can be estimated by computing geometric product between the color monogenic signal and a unit reference vector in RGB color space. Experiment results on the synthetic and natural stereo images show the performance of the proposed approach.
Square root approximation to the poisson channel
Tsiatmas, A.; Willems, F.M.J.; Baggen, C.P.M.J.
2013-01-01
Starting from the Poisson model we present a channel model for optical communications, called the Square Root (SR) Channel, in which the noise is additive Gaussian with constant variance. Initially, we prove that for large peak or average power, the transmission rate of a Poisson Channel when coding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eghbali, Ali
2015-01-01
The equations of motion of a super non-Abelian T-dual sigma model on the Lie supergroup (C_1"1+A) in the curved background are explicitly solved by the super Poisson-Lie T-duality. To find the solution of the flat model we use the transformation of supercoordinates, transforming the metric into a constant one, which is shown to be a supercanonical transformation. Then, using the super Poisson-Lie T-duality transformations and the dual decomposition of elements of Drinfel’d superdouble, the solution of the equations of motion for the dual sigma model is obtained. The general form of the dilaton fields satisfying the vanishing β−function equations of the sigma models is found. In this respect, conformal invariance of the sigma models built on the Drinfel’d superdouble ((C_1"1+A) , I_(_2_|_2_)) is guaranteed up to one-loop, at least.
Ishigami, Hideaki
2016-01-01
Relative age effect (RAE) in sports has been well documented. Recent studies investigate the effect of birthplace in addition to the RAE. The first objective of this study was to show the magnitude of the RAE in two major professional sports in Japan, baseball and soccer. Second, we examined the birthplace effect and compared its magnitude with that of the RAE. The effect sizes were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with the number of players as dependent variable. The RAEs were 9.0% and 7.7% per month for soccer and baseball, respectively. These estimates imply that children born in the first month of a school year have about three times greater chance of becoming a professional player than those born in the last month of the year. Over half of the difference in likelihoods of becoming a professional player between birthplaces was accounted for by weather conditions, with the likelihood decreasing by 1% per snow day. An effect of population size was not detected in the data. By investigating different samples, we demonstrated that using quarterly data leads to underestimation and that the age range of sampled athletes should be set carefully.
Starrfelt, Jostein; Liow, Lee Hsiang
2016-04-05
The fossil record is a rich source of information about biological diversity in the past. However, the fossil record is not only incomplete but has also inherent biases due to geological, physical, chemical and biological factors. Our knowledge of past life is also biased because of differences in academic and amateur interests and sampling efforts. As a result, not all individuals or species that lived in the past are equally likely to be discovered at any point in time or space. To reconstruct temporal dynamics of diversity using the fossil record, biased sampling must be explicitly taken into account. Here, we introduce an approach that uses the variation in the number of times each species is observed in the fossil record to estimate both sampling bias and true richness. We term our technique TRiPS (True Richness estimated using a Poisson Sampling model) and explore its robustness to violation of its assumptions via simulations. We then venture to estimate sampling bias and absolute species richness of dinosaurs in the geological stages of the Mesozoic. Using TRiPS, we estimate that 1936 (1543-2468) species of dinosaurs roamed the Earth during the Mesozoic. We also present improved estimates of species richness trajectories of the three major dinosaur clades: the sauropodomorphs, ornithischians and theropods, casting doubt on the Jurassic-Cretaceous extinction event and demonstrating that all dinosaur groups are subject to considerable sampling bias throughout the Mesozoic. © 2016 The Authors.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jones, Bleddyn [Gray Institute for Radiation Oncology and Biology, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford OX3 7DQ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: Bleddyn.Jones@rob.ox.ac.uk
2009-06-01
Current technical radiotherapy advances aim to (a) better conform the dose contours to cancers and (b) reduce the integral dose exposure and thereby minimise unnecessary dose exposure to normal tissues unaffected by the cancer. Various types of conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) using x-rays can achieve (a) while charged particle therapy (CPT)-using proton and ion beams-can achieve both (a) and (b), but at greater financial cost. Not only is the long term risk of radiation related normal tissue complications important, but so is the risk of carcinogenesis. Physical dose distribution plans can be generated to show the differences between the above techniques. IMRT is associated with a dose bath of low to medium dose due to fluence transfer: dose is effectively transferred from designated organs at risk to other areas; thus dose and risk are transferred. Many clinicians are concerned that there may be additional carcinogenesis many years after IMRT. CPT reduces the total energy deposition in the body and offers many potential advantages in terms of the prospects for better quality of life along with cancer cure. With C ions there is a tail of dose beyond the Bragg peaks, due to nuclear fragmentation; this is not found with protons. CPT generally uses higher linear energy transfer (which varies with particle and energy), which carries a higher relative risk of malignant induction, but also of cell death quantified by the relative biological effect concept, so at higher dose levels the frank development of malignancy should be reduced. Standard linear radioprotection models have been used to show a reduction in carcinogenesis risk of between two- and 15-fold depending on the CPT location. But the standard risk models make no allowance for fractionation and some have a dose limit at 4 Gy. Alternatively, tentative application of the linear quadratic model and Poissonian statistics to chromosome breakage and cell kill simultaneously allows estimation of
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Carsten Søren; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Markussen, Bo
2015-01-01
The article “Testing a Poisson Counter Model for Visual Identification of Briefly Presented, Mutually Confusable Single Stimuli in Pure Accuracy Tasks” by Søren Kyllingsbæk, Bo Markussen and Claus Bundesen (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 2012, Vol. 38, No. 3......, pp. 628–642. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0024751) used a computational shortcut (Equation A5) that strongly reduced the time needed to fit the Poisson counter model to experimental data. Unfortunately, the computational shortcut built on an approximation that was not well-founded in the Poisson...... counter model. To measure the actual deviation, the authors refitted both the computational shortcut and the Poisson counter model (Equations A1-A4) to the experimental data reported in the article. The Poisson counter model fits did, fortunately, not deviate noticeably from those produced...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhai Chengxiang
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Large-scale genomic studies often identify large gene lists, for example, the genes sharing the same expression patterns. The interpretation of these gene lists is generally achieved by extracting concepts overrepresented in the gene lists. This analysis often depends on manual annotation of genes based on controlled vocabularies, in particular, Gene Ontology (GO. However, the annotation of genes is a labor-intensive process; and the vocabularies are generally incomplete, leaving some important biological domains inadequately covered. Results We propose a statistical method that uses the primary literature, i.e. free-text, as the source to perform overrepresentation analysis. The method is based on a statistical framework of mixture model and addresses the methodological flaws in several existing programs. We implemented this method within a literature mining system, BeeSpace, taking advantage of its analysis environment and added features that facilitate the interactive analysis of gene sets. Through experimentation with several datasets, we showed that our program can effectively summarize the important conceptual themes of large gene sets, even when traditional GO-based analysis does not yield informative results. Conclusions We conclude that the current work will provide biologists with a tool that effectively complements the existing ones for overrepresentation analysis from genomic experiments. Our program, Genelist Analyzer, is freely available at: http://workerbee.igb.uiuc.edu:8080/BeeSpace/Search.jsp
Fogolari, Federico; Corazza, Alessandra; Esposito, Gennaro
2015-04-05
The generalized Born model in the Onufriev, Bashford, and Case (Onufriev et al., Proteins: Struct Funct Genet 2004, 55, 383) implementation has emerged as one of the best compromises between accuracy and speed of computation. For simulations of nucleic acids, however, a number of issues should be addressed: (1) the generalized Born model is based on a linear model and the linearization of the reference Poisson-Boltmann equation may be questioned for highly charged systems as nucleic acids; (2) although much attention has been given to potentials, solvation forces could be much less sensitive to linearization than the potentials; and (3) the accuracy of the Onufriev-Bashford-Case (OBC) model for nucleic acids depends on fine tuning of parameters. Here, we show that the linearization of the Poisson Boltzmann equation has mild effects on computed forces, and that with optimal choice of the OBC model parameters, solvation forces, essential for molecular dynamics simulations, agree well with those computed using the reference Poisson-Boltzmann model. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Homogeneous Poisson structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shafei Deh Abad, A.; Malek, F.
1993-09-01
We provide an algebraic definition for Schouten product and give a decomposition for any homogenenous Poisson structure in any n-dimensional vector space. A large class of n-homogeneous Poisson structures in R k is also characterized. (author). 4 refs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Littlejohn, R.G.
1982-01-01
The Hamiltonian structures discovered by Morrison and Greene for various fluid equations were obtained by guessing a Hamiltonian and a suitable Poisson bracket formula, expressed in terms of noncanonical (but physical) coordinates. In general, such a procedure for obtaining a Hamiltonian system does not produce a Hamiltonian phase space in the usual sense (a symplectic manifold), but rather a family of symplectic manifolds. To state the matter in terms of a system with a finite number of degrees of freedom, the family of symplectic manifolds is parametrized by a set of Casimir functions, which are characterized by having vanishing Poisson brackets with all other functions. The number of independent Casimir functions is the corank of the Poisson tensor J/sup ij/, the components of which are the Poisson brackets of the coordinates among themselves. Thus, these Casimir functions exist only when the Poisson tensor is singular
Ahdika, Atina; Lusiyana, Novyan
2017-02-01
World Health Organization (WHO) noted Indonesia as the country with the highest dengue (DHF) cases in Southeast Asia. There are no vaccine and specific treatment for DHF. One of the efforts which can be done by both government and resident is doing a prevention action. In statistics, there are some methods to predict the number of DHF cases to be used as the reference to prevent the DHF cases. In this paper, a discrete time series model, INAR(1)-Poisson model in specific, and Markov prediction model are used to predict the number of DHF patients in West Java Indonesia. The result shows that MPM is the best model since it has the smallest value of MAE (mean absolute error) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).
On poisson-stopped-sums that are mixed poisson
Valero Baya, Jordi; Pérez Casany, Marta; Ginebra Molins, Josep
2013-01-01
Maceda (1948) characterized the mixed Poisson distributions that are Poisson-stopped-sum distributions based on the mixing distribution. In an alternative characterization of the same set of distributions here the Poisson-stopped-sum distributions that are mixed Poisson distributions is proved to be the set of Poisson-stopped-sums of either a mixture of zero-truncated Poisson distributions or a zero-modification of it. Peer Reviewed
Zeroth Poisson Homology, Foliated Cohomology and Perfect Poisson Manifolds
Martínez-Torres, David; Miranda, Eva
2018-01-01
We prove that, for compact regular Poisson manifolds, the zeroth homology group is isomorphic to the top foliated cohomology group, and we give some applications. In particular, we show that, for regular unimodular Poisson manifolds, top Poisson and foliated cohomology groups are isomorphic. Inspired by the symplectic setting, we define what a perfect Poisson manifold is. We use these Poisson homology computations to provide families of perfect Poisson manifolds.
Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program
Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert
1990-01-01
Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harwood, L.H.
1981-01-01
At MSU we have used the POISSON family of programs extensively for magnetic field calculations. In the presently super-saturated computer situation, reducing the run time for the program is imperative. Thus, a series of modifications have been made to POISSON to speed up convergence. Two of the modifications aim at having the first guess solution as close as possible to the final solution. The other two aim at increasing the convergence rate. In this discussion, a working knowledge of POISSON is assumed. The amount of new code and expected time saving for each modification is discussed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. D. Yin
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Cellular retinol-binding protein II (CRBP II belongs to the family of cellular retinol-binding proteins and plays a major role in absorption, transport, and metabolism of vitamin A. In addition, because vitamin A is correlated with reproductive performance, we measured CRBP II mRNA abundance in erlang mountainous chickens by real-time PCR using the relative quantification method. The expression of CRBP II showed a tissue-specific pattern and egg production rate-dependent changes. The expression was very high (p<0.05 in jejunum and liver, intermediate in kidney, ovary, and oviduct, and lowest (p<0.05 in heart, hypothalamus, and pituitary. In the hypothalamus, oviduct, ovary, and pituitary, CRBP II mRNA abundance were correlated to egg production rate, which increased from 12 wk to 32 wk, peaked at 32 wk relative to the other time points, and then decreased from 32 wk to 45 wk. In contrast, the expression of CRBP II mRNA in heart, jejunum, kidney, and liver was not different at any of the ages evaluated in this study. These data may help to understand the genetic basis of vitamin A metabolism, and suggest that CRBP II may be a candidate gene to affect egg production traits in chickens.
Poisson Processes in Free Probability
An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu
2015-01-01
We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...
Alexe-Ionescu, A L; Barbero, G; Lelidis, I
2014-08-28
We consider the influence of the spatial dependence of the ions distribution on the effective dielectric constant of an electrolytic solution. We show that in the linear version of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck model, the effective dielectric constant of the solution has to be considered independent of any ionic distribution induced by the external field. This result follows from the fact that, in the linear approximation of the Poisson-Nernst-Planck model, the redistribution of the ions in the solvent due to the external field gives rise to a variation of the dielectric constant that is of the first order in the effective potential, and therefore it has to be neglected in the Poisson's equation that relates the actual electric potential across the electrolytic cell to the bulk density of ions. The analysis is performed in the case where the electrodes are perfectly blocking and the adsorption at the electrodes is negligible, and in the absence of any ion dissociation-recombination effect.
On Poisson Nonlinear Transformations
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Nasir Ganikhodjaev
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We construct the family of Poisson nonlinear transformations defined on the countable sample space of nonnegative integers and investigate their trajectory behavior. We have proved that these nonlinear transformations are regular.
Scaling the Poisson Distribution
Farnsworth, David L.
2014-01-01
We derive the additive property of Poisson random variables directly from the probability mass function. An important application of the additive property to quality testing of computer chips is presented.
Extended Poisson Exponential Distribution
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Anum Fatima
2015-09-01
Full Text Available A new mixture of Modified Exponential (ME and Poisson distribution has been introduced in this paper. Taking the Maximum of Modified Exponential random variable when the sample size follows a zero truncated Poisson distribution we have derived the new distribution, named as Extended Poisson Exponential distribution. This distribution possesses increasing and decreasing failure rates. The Poisson-Exponential, Modified Exponential and Exponential distributions are special cases of this distribution. We have also investigated some mathematical properties of the distribution along with Information entropies and Order statistics of the distribution. The estimation of parameters has been obtained using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure. Finally we have illustrated a real data application of our distribution.
Poisson branching point processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuo, K.; Teich, M.C.; Saleh, B.E.A.
1984-01-01
We investigate the statistical properties of a special branching point process. The initial process is assumed to be a homogeneous Poisson point process (HPP). The initiating events at each branching stage are carried forward to the following stage. In addition, each initiating event independently contributes a nonstationary Poisson point process (whose rate is a specified function) located at that point. The additional contributions from all points of a given stage constitute a doubly stochastic Poisson point process (DSPP) whose rate is a filtered version of the initiating point process at that stage. The process studied is a generalization of a Poisson branching process in which random time delays are permitted in the generation of events. Particular attention is given to the limit in which the number of branching stages is infinite while the average number of added events per event of the previous stage is infinitesimal. In the special case when the branching is instantaneous this limit of continuous branching corresponds to the well-known Yule--Furry process with an initial Poisson population. The Poisson branching point process provides a useful description for many problems in various scientific disciplines, such as the behavior of electron multipliers, neutron chain reactions, and cosmic ray showers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Christian; Kiesmüller, Gudrun P.
We derive a closed-form cost expression for an (R,s,nQ) inventory control policy where all replenishment orders have a constant lead-time, unfilled demand is backlogged and inter-arrival times of order requests are generalized Erlang distributed.......We derive a closed-form cost expression for an (R,s,nQ) inventory control policy where all replenishment orders have a constant lead-time, unfilled demand is backlogged and inter-arrival times of order requests are generalized Erlang distributed....
Silver, Toni O.
2013-01-01
2013 dissertation for MSc in Finance and Risk Management. Selected by academic staff as a good example of a masters level dissertation. \\ud \\ud This study investigated the two major methods of modelling the frequency of\\ud operational losses under the BCBS Accord of 1998 known as Basel II Capital\\ud Accord. It compared the Poisson method of modelling the frequency of\\ud losses to that of the Negative Binomial. The frequency of operational losses\\ud was investigated using a cross section of se...
Mani, Prashant; Tyagi, Chandra Shekhar; Srivastav, Nishant
2016-03-01
In this paper the analytical solution of the 2D Poisson's equation for single gate Fully Depleted SOI (FDSOI) MOSFET's is derived by using a Green's function solution technique. The surface potential is calculated and the threshold voltage of the device is minimized for the low power consumption. Due to minimization of threshold voltage the short channel effect of device is suppressed and after observation we obtain the device is kink free. The structure and characteristics of SingleGate FDSOI MOSFET were matched by using MathCAD and silvaco respectively.
Fractional Poisson process (II)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Xiaotian; Wen Zhixiong; Zhang Shiying
2006-01-01
In this paper, we propose a stochastic process W H (t)(H-bar (12,1)) which we call fractional Poisson process. The process W H (t) is self-similar in wide sense, displays long range dependence, and has more fatter tail than Gaussian process. In addition, it converges to fractional Brownian motion in distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Christian; Kiesmüller, G.P
2007-01-01
We derive a closed-form cost expression for an (R,s,nQ) inventory control policy where all replenishment orders have a constant lead-time, unfilled demand is back-logged and inter-arrival times of order requests are generalized Erlang distributed. For given values of Q and R we show how to compute...
Formal equivalence of Poisson structures around Poisson submanifolds
Marcut, I.T.
2012-01-01
Let (M,π) be a Poisson manifold. A Poisson submanifold P ⊂ M gives rise to a Lie algebroid AP → P. Formal deformations of π around P are controlled by certain cohomology groups associated to AP. Assuming that these groups vanish, we prove that π is formally rigid around P; that is, any other Poisson
Wang, Chenggang; Jiang, Baofa; Fan, Jingchun; Wang, Furong; Liu, Qiyong
2014-01-01
The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.
Poisson brackets of orthogonal polynomials
Cantero, María José; Simon, Barry
2009-01-01
For the standard symplectic forms on Jacobi and CMV matrices, we compute Poisson brackets of OPRL and OPUC, and relate these to other basic Poisson brackets and to Jacobians of basic changes of variable.
Normal forms in Poisson geometry
Marcut, I.T.
2013-01-01
The structure of Poisson manifolds is highly nontrivial even locally. The first important result in this direction is Conn's linearization theorem around fixed points. One of the main results of this thesis (Theorem 2) is a normal form theorem in Poisson geometry, which is the Poisson-geometric
Cannon, Jonathan
2017-01-01
Mutual information is a commonly used measure of communication between neurons, but little theory exists describing the relationship between mutual information and the parameters of the underlying neuronal interaction. Such a theory could help us understand how specific physiological changes affect the capacity of neurons to synaptically communicate, and, in particular, they could help us characterize the mechanisms by which neuronal dynamics gate the flow of information in the brain. Here we study a pair of linear-nonlinear-Poisson neurons coupled by a weak synapse. We derive an analytical expression describing the mutual information between their spike trains in terms of synapse strength, neuronal activation function, the time course of postsynaptic currents, and the time course of the background input received by the two neurons. This expression allows mutual information calculations that would otherwise be computationally intractable. We use this expression to analytically explore the interaction of excitation, information transmission, and the convexity of the activation function. Then, using this expression to quantify mutual information in simulations, we illustrate the information-gating effects of neural oscillations and oscillatory coherence, which may either increase or decrease the mutual information across the synapse depending on parameters. Finally, we show analytically that our results can quantitatively describe the selection of one information pathway over another when multiple sending neurons project weakly to a single receiving neuron.
Simoneau, Gabrielle; Levis, Brooke; Cuijpers, Pim; Ioannidis, John P A; Patten, Scott B; Shrier, Ian; Bombardier, Charles H; de Lima Osório, Flavia; Fann, Jesse R; Gjerdingen, Dwenda; Lamers, Femke; Lotrakul, Manote; Löwe, Bernd; Shaaban, Juwita; Stafford, Lesley; van Weert, Henk C P M; Whooley, Mary A; Wittkampf, Karin A; Yeung, Albert S; Thombs, Brett D; Benedetti, Andrea
2017-11-01
Individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses are increasingly common in the literature. In the context of estimating the diagnostic accuracy of ordinal or semi-continuous scale tests, sensitivity and specificity are often reported for a given threshold or a small set of thresholds, and a meta-analysis is conducted via a bivariate approach to account for their correlation. When IPD are available, sensitivity and specificity can be pooled for every possible threshold. Our objective was to compare the bivariate approach, which can be applied separately at every threshold, to two multivariate methods: the ordinal multivariate random-effects model and the Poisson correlated gamma-frailty model. Our comparison was empirical, using IPD from 13 studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire depression screening tool, and included simulations. The empirical comparison showed that the implementation of the two multivariate methods is more laborious in terms of computational time and sensitivity to user-supplied values compared to the bivariate approach. Simulations showed that ignoring the within-study correlation of sensitivity and specificity across thresholds did not worsen inferences with the bivariate approach compared to the Poisson model. The ordinal approach was not suitable for simulations because the model was highly sensitive to user-supplied starting values. We tentatively recommend the bivariate approach rather than more complex multivariate methods for IPD diagnostic accuracy meta-analyses of ordinal scale tests, although the limited type of diagnostic data considered in the simulation study restricts the generalization of our findings. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael
2017-06-01
We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.
Mino, H
2007-01-01
To estimate the parameters, the impulse response (IR) functions of some linear time-invariant systems generating intensity processes, in Shot-Noise-Driven Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (SND-DSPP) in which multivariate presynaptic spike trains and postsynaptic spike trains can be assumed to be modeled by the SND-DSPPs. An explicit formula for estimating the IR functions from observations of multivariate input processes of the linear systems and the corresponding counting process (output process) is derived utilizing the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The validity of the estimation formula was verified through Monte Carlo simulations in which two presynaptic spike trains and one postsynaptic spike train were assumed to be observable. The IR functions estimated on the basis of the proposed identification method were close to the true IR functions. The proposed method will play an important role in identifying the input-output relationship of pre- and postsynaptic neural spike trains in practical situations.
Bijma, K; Engberts, J B F N
This paper describes how the theory of the ''dressed micelle'', which is based on the nonlinear Poisson-Boltzmann equation, can be used to calculate a number of thermodynamic quantities for micellization of sodium p-alkylbenzenesulphonates. From the Gibbs energy of micellization, the enthalpy of
Ifremer
1992-01-01
Vous trouverez dans ce document les 24 poissons les plus courants de Guyane (sur un nombre d'espèces approchant les 200) avec leurs principales caractéristiques, leurs noms scientifiques, français, anglais et espagnol et leurs photographies. Ils sont classés, de l'acoupa au vivaneau ti yeux, par ordre alphabétique. Si vous ne trouvez pas de chiffres sur la production de telle ou telle espèce, c'est parce qu'ils n'existent pas, mais aussi et surtout parce qu'ils ne signifieraient rien, l...
PENERAPAN REGRESI BINOMIAL NEGATIF UNTUK MENGATASI OVERDISPERSI PADA REGRESI POISSON
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
PUTU SUSAN PRADAWATI
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Poisson regression was used to analyze the count data which Poisson distributed. Poisson regression analysis requires state equidispersion, in which the mean value of the response variable is equal to the value of the variance. However, there are deviations in which the value of the response variable variance is greater than the mean. This is called overdispersion. If overdispersion happens and Poisson Regression analysis is being used, then underestimated standard errors will be obtained. Negative Binomial Regression can handle overdispersion because it contains a dispersion parameter. From the simulation data which experienced overdispersion in the Poisson Regression model it was found that the Negative Binomial Regression was better than the Poisson Regression model.
Estimation of Poisson noise in spatial domain
Švihlík, Jan; Fliegel, Karel; Vítek, Stanislav; Kukal, Jaromír.; Krbcová, Zuzana
2017-09-01
This paper deals with modeling of astronomical images in the spatial domain. We consider astronomical light images contaminated by the dark current which is modeled by Poisson random process. Dark frame image maps the thermally generated charge of the CCD sensor. In this paper, we solve the problem of an addition of two Poisson random variables. At first, the noise analysis of images obtained from the astronomical camera is performed. It allows estimating parameters of the Poisson probability mass functions in every pixel of the acquired dark frame. Then the resulting distributions of the light image can be found. If the distributions of the light image pixels are identified, then the denoising algorithm can be applied. The performance of the Bayesian approach in the spatial domain is compared with the direct approach based on the method of moments and the dark frame subtraction.
Natural Poisson structures of nonlinear plasma dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaufman, A.N.
1982-01-01
Hamiltonian field theories, for models of nonlinear plasma dynamics, require a Poisson bracket structure for functionals of the field variables. These are presented, applied, and derived for several sets of field variables: coherent waves, incoherent waves, particle distributions, and multifluid electrodynamics. Parametric coupling of waves and plasma yields concise expressions for ponderomotive effects (in kinetic and fluid models) and for induced scattering. (Auth.)
Natural Poisson structures of nonlinear plasma dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaufman, A.N.
1982-06-01
Hamiltonian field theories, for models of nonlinear plasma dynamics, require a Poisson bracket structure for functionals of the field variables. These are presented, applied, and derived for several sets of field variables: coherent waves, incoherent waves, particle distributions, and multifluid electrodynamics. Parametric coupling of waves and plasma yields concise expressions for ponderomotive effects (in kinetic and fluid models) and for induced scattering
Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.
Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I
2013-01-22
We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments.
Liu, Xuejiao; Lu, Benzhuo
2017-12-01
Potassium channels are much more permeable to potassium than sodium ions, although potassium ions are larger and both carry the same positive charge. This puzzle cannot be solved based on the traditional Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) theory of electrodiffusion because the PNP model treats all ions as point charges, does not incorporate ion size information, and therefore cannot discriminate potassium from sodium ions. The PNP model can qualitatively capture some macroscopic properties of certain channel systems such as current-voltage characteristics, conductance rectification, and inverse membrane potential. However, the traditional PNP model is a continuum mean-field model and has no or underestimates the discrete ion effects, in particular the ion solvation or self-energy (which can be described by Born model). It is known that the dehydration effect (closely related to ion size) is crucial to selective permeation in potassium channels. Therefore, we incorporated Born solvation energy into the PNP model to account for ion hydration and dehydration effects when passing through inhomogeneous dielectric channel environments. A variational approach was adopted to derive a Born-energy-modified PNP (BPNP) model. The model was applied to study a cylindrical nanopore and a realistic KcsA channel, and three-dimensional finite element simulations were performed. The BPNP model can distinguish different ion species by ion radius and predict selectivity for K+ over Na+ in KcsA channels. Furthermore, ion current rectification in the KcsA channel was observed by both the PNP and BPNP models. The I -V curve of the BPNP model for the KcsA channel indicated an inward rectifier effect for K+ (rectification ratio of ˜3 /2 ) but indicated an outward rectifier effect for Na+ (rectification ratio of ˜1 /6 ) .
Liao, Jiaqiang; Yu, Shicheng; Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying
2016-01-01
Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008-2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse "V" shape and "V" shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across
Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying
2016-01-01
Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic
Nonhomogeneous fractional Poisson processes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang Xiaotian [School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China)]. E-mail: swa001@126.com; Zhang Shiying [School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China); Fan Shen [Computer and Information School, Zhejiang Wanli University, Ningbo 315100 (China)
2007-01-15
In this paper, we propose a class of non-Gaussian stationary increment processes, named nonhomogeneous fractional Poisson processes W{sub H}{sup (j)}(t), which permit the study of the effects of long-range dependance in a large number of fields including quantum physics and finance. The processes W{sub H}{sup (j)}(t) are self-similar in a wide sense, exhibit more fatter tail than Gaussian processes, and converge to the Gaussian processes in distribution in some cases. In addition, we also show that the intensity function {lambda}(t) strongly influences the existence of the highest finite moment of W{sub H}{sup (j)}(t) and the behaviour of the tail probability of W{sub H}{sup (j)}(t)
Nonhomogeneous fractional Poisson processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wang Xiaotian; Zhang Shiying; Fan Shen
2007-01-01
In this paper, we propose a class of non-Gaussian stationary increment processes, named nonhomogeneous fractional Poisson processes W H (j) (t), which permit the study of the effects of long-range dependance in a large number of fields including quantum physics and finance. The processes W H (j) (t) are self-similar in a wide sense, exhibit more fatter tail than Gaussian processes, and converge to the Gaussian processes in distribution in some cases. In addition, we also show that the intensity function λ(t) strongly influences the existence of the highest finite moment of W H (j) (t) and the behaviour of the tail probability of W H (j) (t)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Anders Holst; Korsgaard, Inge Riis; Jensen, Just
2002-01-01
In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed...... or random effects). In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found - otherwise unbiased estimates are given) for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non...... Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits - and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part...
A Simulation of the ECSS Help Desk with the Erlang a Model
2011-03-01
a popular distribution is the exponential distribution as shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Exponential Distribution ( Bourke , 2001) Exponential...System Sciences, Vol 8, 235B. Bourke , P. (2001, January). Miscellaneous Functions. Retrieved January 22, 2011, from http://local.wasp.uwa.edu.au
Quantum fields and Poisson processes. Pt. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bertrand, J.; Gaveau, B.; Rideau, G.
1985-01-01
Quantum field evolutions are written as expectation values with respect to Poisson processes in two simple models; interaction of two boson fields (with conservation of the number of particles in one field) and interaction of a boson with a fermion field. The introduction of a cutt-off ensures that the expectation values are well-defined. (orig.)
Travel Time Model for Right-Turning Vehicles of Secondary Street at Unsignalized Intersections
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Feng Yu-Qin
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The travel time of right-turning vehicles on secondary street at unsignalized intersection is discussed in this paper. Under the assumption that the major-street through vehicles’ headway follows Erlang distribution and secondary-street right-turning vehicles’ headway follows Poisson distribution. The right-turning vehicles travel time model is established on the basis of gap theory and M/G/1 queue theory. Comparison is done with the common model based on the assumption that the major-street vehicles’ headway follows Poisson distribution. An intersection is selected to verify each model. The results show that the model established in this paper has stronger applicability, and its most relative error is less than 15%. In addition, the sensitivity analysis has been done. The results show that right-turning flow rate and major-street flow rate have a significant impact on the travel time. Hence, the methodology for travel time of right-turning vehicles at unsignalized intersection proposed in this paper is effective and applicable.
Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia
2018-05-01
In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.
Poisson Spot with Magnetic Levitation
Hoover, Matthew; Everhart, Michael; D'Arruda, Jose
2010-01-01
In this paper we describe a unique method for obtaining the famous Poisson spot without adding obstacles to the light path, which could interfere with the effect. A Poisson spot is the interference effect from parallel rays of light diffracting around a solid spherical object, creating a bright spot in the center of the shadow.
Cartailler, J.; Schuss, Z.; Holcman, D.
2017-01-01
The electro-diffusion of ions is often described by the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) equations, which couple nonlinearly the charge concentration and the electric potential. This model is used, among others, to describe the motion of ions in neuronal micro-compartments. It remains at this time an open question how to determine the relaxation and the steady state distribution of voltage when an initial charge of ions is injected into a domain bounded by an impermeable dielectric membrane. The purpose of this paper is to construct an asymptotic approximation to the solution of the stationary PNP equations in a d-dimensional ball (d = 1 , 2 , 3) in the limit of large total charge. In this geometry the PNP system reduces to the Liouville-Gelfand-Bratú (LGB) equation, with the difference that the boundary condition is Neumann, not Dirichlet, and there is a minus sign in the exponent of the exponential term. The entire boundary is impermeable to ions and the electric field satisfies the compatibility condition of Poisson's equation. These differences replace attraction by repulsion in the LGB equation, thus completely changing the solution. We find that the voltage is maximal in the center and decreases toward the boundary. We also find that the potential drop between the center and the surface increases logarithmically in the total number of charges and not linearly, as in classical capacitance theory. This logarithmic singularity is obtained for d = 3 from an asymptotic argument and cannot be derived from the analysis of the phase portrait. These results are used to derive the relation between the outward current and the voltage in a dendritic spine, which is idealized as a dielectric sphere connected smoothly to the nerve axon by a narrow neck. This is a fundamental microdomain involved in neuronal communication. We compute the escape rate of an ion from the steady density in a ball, which models a neuronal spine head, to a small absorbing window in the sphere. We
Rate-optimal Bayesian intensity smoothing for inhomogeneous Poisson processes
Belitser, E.N.; Serra, P.; van Zanten, H.
2015-01-01
We apply nonparametric Bayesian methods to study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To motivate our results we start by analyzing count data coming from a call center which we model as a Poisson process. This analysis is carried out using a certain
Shimaponda-Mataa, Nzooma M; Tembo-Mwase, Enala; Gebreslasie, Michael; Achia, Thomas N O; Mukaratirwa, Samson
2017-11-01
Although malaria morbidity and mortality are greatly reduced globally owing to great control efforts, the disease remains the main contributor. In Zambia, all provinces are malaria endemic. However, the transmission intensities vary mainly depending on environmental factors as they interact with the vectors. Generally in Africa, possibly due to the varying perspectives and methods used, there is variation on the relative importance of malaria risk determinants. In Zambia, the role climatic factors play on malaria case rates has not been determined in combination of space and time using robust methods in modelling. This is critical considering the reversal in malaria reduction after the year 2010 and the variation by transmission zones. Using a geoadditive or structured additive semiparametric Poisson regression model, we determined the influence of climatic factors on malaria incidence in four endemic provinces of Zambia. We demonstrate a strong positive association between malaria incidence and precipitation as well as minimum temperature. The risk of malaria was 95% lower in Lusaka (ARR=0.05, 95% CI=0.04-0.06) and 68% lower in the Western Province (ARR=0.31, 95% CI=0.25-0.41) compared to Luapula Province. North-western Province did not vary from Luapula Province. The effects of geographical region are clearly demonstrated by the unique behaviour and effects of minimum and maximum temperatures in the four provinces. Environmental factors such as landscape in urbanised places may also be playing a role. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Poisson hierarchy of discrete strings
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ioannidou, Theodora; Niemi, Antti J.
2016-01-01
The Poisson geometry of a discrete string in three dimensional Euclidean space is investigated. For this the Frenet frames are converted into a spinorial representation, the discrete spinor Frenet equation is interpreted in terms of a transfer matrix formalism, and Poisson brackets are introduced in terms of the spinor components. The construction is then generalised, in a self-similar manner, into an infinite hierarchy of Poisson algebras. As an example, the classical Virasoro (Witt) algebra that determines reparametrisation diffeomorphism along a continuous string, is identified as a particular sub-algebra, in the hierarchy of the discrete string Poisson algebra. - Highlights: • Witt (classical Virasoro) algebra is derived in the case of discrete string. • Infinite dimensional hierarchy of Poisson bracket algebras is constructed for discrete strings. • Spinor representation of discrete Frenet equations is developed.
Poisson hierarchy of discrete strings
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ioannidou, Theodora, E-mail: ti3@auth.gr [Faculty of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54249, Thessaloniki (Greece); Niemi, Antti J., E-mail: Antti.Niemi@physics.uu.se [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 803, S-75108, Uppsala (Sweden); Laboratoire de Mathematiques et Physique Theorique CNRS UMR 6083, Fédération Denis Poisson, Université de Tours, Parc de Grandmont, F37200, Tours (France); Department of Physics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Haidian District, Beijing 100081 (China)
2016-01-28
The Poisson geometry of a discrete string in three dimensional Euclidean space is investigated. For this the Frenet frames are converted into a spinorial representation, the discrete spinor Frenet equation is interpreted in terms of a transfer matrix formalism, and Poisson brackets are introduced in terms of the spinor components. The construction is then generalised, in a self-similar manner, into an infinite hierarchy of Poisson algebras. As an example, the classical Virasoro (Witt) algebra that determines reparametrisation diffeomorphism along a continuous string, is identified as a particular sub-algebra, in the hierarchy of the discrete string Poisson algebra. - Highlights: • Witt (classical Virasoro) algebra is derived in the case of discrete string. • Infinite dimensional hierarchy of Poisson bracket algebras is constructed for discrete strings. • Spinor representation of discrete Frenet equations is developed.
Ghanta, Sindhu; Jordan, Michael I.; Kose, Kivanc; Brooks, Dana H.; Rajadhyaksha, Milind; Dy, Jennifer G.
2016-01-01
Segmenting objects of interest from 3D datasets is a common problem encountered in biological data. Small field of view and intrinsic biological variability combined with optically subtle changes of intensity, resolution and low contrast in images make the task of segmentation difficult, especially for microscopy of unstained living or freshly excised thick tissues. Incorporating shape information in addition to the appearance of the object of interest can often help improve segmentation performance. However, shapes of objects in tissue can be highly variable and design of a flexible shape model that encompasses these variations is challenging. To address such complex segmentation problems, we propose a unified probabilistic framework that can incorporate the uncertainty associated with complex shapes, variable appearance and unknown locations. The driving application which inspired the development of this framework is a biologically important segmentation problem: the task of automatically detecting and segmenting the dermal-epidermal junction (DEJ) in 3D reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM) images of human skin. RCM imaging allows noninvasive observation of cellular, nuclear and morphological detail. The DEJ is an important morphological feature as it is where disorder, disease and cancer usually start. Detecting the DEJ is challenging because it is a 2D surface in a 3D volume which has strong but highly variable number of irregularly spaced and variably shaped “peaks and valleys”. In addition, RCM imaging resolution, contrast and intensity vary with depth. Thus a prior model needs to incorporate the intrinsic structure while allowing variability in essentially all its parameters. We propose a model which can incorporate objects of interest with complex shapes and variable appearance in an unsupervised setting by utilizing domain knowledge to build appropriate priors of the model. Our novel strategy to model this structure combines a spatial Poisson process
Biesheuvel, P.M.; Lindhoud, S.; Vries, de R.J.; Stuart, M.A.C.
2006-01-01
We study the phase behavior of mixtures of oppositely charged nanoparticles, both theoretically and experimentally. As an experimental model system we consider mixtures of lysozyme and lysozyme that has been chemically modified in such a way that its charge is nearly equal in magnitude but opposite
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.
2011-01-01
equilibrium is continuously assured and the pH value is monitored. Results from some selected test simulations of the electrokinetic desalination of a sample of porous material are presented, outlining the versatility of the model as well as showing the effect of the counterion in the removal rate of a target...
Beilecke, Thies; Krawczyk, Charlotte M.; Tanner, David C.; Ziesch, Jennifer; Research Group Protect
2014-05-01
Compressional wave (P-wave) reflection seismic field measurements are a standard tool for subsurface exploration. 2-D seismic measurements are often used for overview measurements, but also as near-surface supplement to fill gaps that often exist in 3-D seismic data sets. Such supplementing 2-D measurements are typically simple with respect to field layout. This is an opportunity for the use of shear waves (S-waves). Within the last years, S-waves have become more and more important. One reason is that P- and S-waves are differently sensitive to fluids and pore fill so that the additional S-wave information can be used to enhance lithological studies. Another reason is that S-waves have the advantage of higher spatial resolution. Within the same signal bandwidth they typically have about half the wavelength of P-waves. In near-surface unconsolidated sediments they can even enhance the structural resolution by one order of magnitude. We make use of these capabilities within the PROTECT project. In addition to already existing 2-D P-wave data, we carried out a near surface 2-D S-wave field survey at the CO2CRC Otway Project pilot site, close to Warrnambool, Australia in November 2013. The combined analysis of P-wave and S-wave data is used to construct a Poisson's Ratio 2-D model down to roughly 600 m depth. The Poisson's ratio values along a 1 km long profile at the site are surprisingly high, ranging from 0.47 in the carbonate-dominated near surface to 0.4 at depth. In the literature, average lab measurements of 0.22 for unfissured carbonates and 0.37 for fissured examples have been reported. The high values that we found may indicate areas of rather unconsolidated or fractured material, or enhanced fluid contents, and will be subject of further studies. This work is integrated in a larger workflow towards prediction of CO2 leakage and monitoring strategies for subsurface storage in general. Acknowledgement: This work was sponsored in part by the Australian
Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Sepidarkish, Mahdi; Vesali, Samira; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Esmailzadeh, Arezoo; Omani-Samani, Reza
2018-01-01
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a frequent condition in reproductive age women with a prevalence rate of 5-10%. This study intends to determine the relationship between PCOS and the outcome of assisted reproductive treatment (ART) in Tehran, Iran. In this historical cohort study, we included 996 infertile women who referred to Royan Institute (Tehran, Iran) between January 2012 and December 2013. PCOS, as the main variable, and other potential confounder variables were gathered. Modified Poisson Regression was used for data analysis. Stata software, version 13 was used for all statistical analyses. Unadjusted analysis showed a significantly lower risk for failure in PCOS cases compared to cases without PCOS [risk ratio (RR): 0.79, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.66-0.95, P=0.014]. After adjusting for the confounder variables, there was no difference between risk of non-pregnancy in women with and without PCOS (RR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.72-1.05, P=0.15). Significant predictors of the ART outcome included the treatment protocol type, numbers of embryos transferred (grades A and AB), numbers of injected ampules, and age. The results obtained from this model showed no difference between patients with and without PCOS according to the risk for non-pregnancy. Therefore, other factors might affect conception in PCOS patients. Copyright© by Royan Institute. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L.B. Bhuiyan
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory of the restricted primitive model double layer is revisited and recast in a fresh, slightly broader perspective. Derivation of relevant equations follow the techniques utilized in the earlier MPB4 and MPB5 formulations and clarifies the relationship between these. The MPB4, MPB5, and a new formulation of the theory are employed in an analysis of the structure and charge reversal phenomenon in asymmetric 2:1/1:2 valence electrolytes. Furthermore, polarization induced surface charge amplification is studied in 3:1/1:3 systems. The results are compared to the corresponding Monte Carlo simulations. The theories are seen to predict the "exact" simulation data to varying degrees of accuracy ranging from qualitative to almost quantitative. The results from a new version of the theory are found to be of comparable accuracy as the MPB5 results in many situations. However, in some cases involving low electrolyte concentrations, theoretical artifacts in the form of un-physical "shoulders" in the singlet ionic distribution functions are observed.
Intertime jump statistics of state-dependent Poisson processes.
Daly, Edoardo; Porporato, Amilcare
2007-01-01
A method to obtain the probability distribution of the interarrival times of jump occurrences in systems driven by state-dependent Poisson noise is proposed. Such a method uses the survivor function obtained by a modified version of the master equation associated to the stochastic process under analysis. A model for the timing of human activities shows the capability of state-dependent Poisson noise to generate power-law distributions. The application of the method to a model for neuron dynamics and to a hydrological model accounting for land-atmosphere interaction elucidates the origin of characteristic recurrence intervals and possible persistence in state-dependent Poisson models.
Polynomial Poisson algebras: Gel'fand-Kirillov problem and Poisson spectra
Lecoutre, César
2014-01-01
We study the fields of fractions and the Poisson spectra of polynomial Poisson algebras.\\ud \\ud First we investigate a Poisson birational equivalence problem for polynomial Poisson algebras over a field of arbitrary characteristic. Namely, the quadratic Poisson Gel'fand-Kirillov problem asks whether the field of fractions of a Poisson algebra is isomorphic to the field of fractions of a Poisson affine space, i.e. a polynomial algebra such that the Poisson bracket of two generators is equal to...
Speech parts as Poisson processes.
Badalamenti, A F
2001-09-01
This paper presents evidence that six of the seven parts of speech occur in written text as Poisson processes, simple or recurring. The six major parts are nouns, verbs, adjectives, adverbs, prepositions, and conjunctions, with the interjection occurring too infrequently to support a model. The data consist of more than the first 5000 words of works by four major authors coded to label the parts of speech, as well as periods (sentence terminators). Sentence length is measured via the period and found to be normally distributed with no stochastic model identified for its occurrence. The models for all six speech parts but the noun significantly distinguish some pairs of authors and likewise for the joint use of all words types. Any one author is significantly distinguished from any other by at least one word type and sentence length very significantly distinguishes each from all others. The variety of word type use, measured by Shannon entropy, builds to about 90% of its maximum possible value. The rate constants for nouns are close to the fractions of maximum entropy achieved. This finding together with the stochastic models and the relations among them suggest that the noun may be a primitive organizer of written text.
Non-equal-time Poisson brackets
Nikolic, H.
1998-01-01
The standard definition of the Poisson brackets is generalized to the non-equal-time Poisson brackets. Their relationship to the equal-time Poisson brackets, as well as to the equal- and non-equal-time commutators, is discussed.
Irreversible thermodynamics of Poisson processes with reaction.
Méndez, V; Fort, J
1999-11-01
A kinetic model is derived to study the successive movements of particles, described by a Poisson process, as well as their generation. The irreversible thermodynamics of this system is also studied from the kinetic model. This makes it possible to evaluate the differences between thermodynamical quantities computed exactly and up to second-order. Such differences determine the range of validity of the second-order approximation to extended irreversible thermodynamics.
Newton/Poisson-Distribution Program
Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.
1990-01-01
NEWTPOIS, one of two computer programs making calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715) and CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) used independently of one another. NEWTPOIS determines Poisson parameter for given cumulative probability, from which one obtains percentiles for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and percentiles for X(sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Program written in C.
POISSON SUPERFISH, Poisson Equation Solver for Radio Frequency Cavity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Colman, J.
2001-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: POISSON, SUPERFISH is a group of (1) codes that solve Poisson's equation and are used to compute field quality for both magnets and fixed electric potentials and (2) RF cavity codes that calculate resonant frequencies and field distributions of the fundamental and higher modes. The group includes: POISSON, PANDIRA, SUPERFISH, AUTOMESH, LATTICE, FORCE, MIRT, PAN-T, TEKPLOT, SF01, and SHY. POISSON solves Poisson's (or Laplace's) equation for the vector (scalar) potential with nonlinear isotropic iron (dielectric) and electric current (charge) distributions for two-dimensional Cartesian or three-dimensional cylindrical symmetry. It calculates the derivatives of the potential, the stored energy, and performs harmonic (multipole) analysis of the potential. PANDIRA is similar to POISSON except it allows anisotropic and permanent magnet materials and uses a different numerical method to obtain the potential. SUPERFISH solves for the accelerating (TM) and deflecting (TE) resonant frequencies and field distributions in an RF cavity with two-dimensional Cartesian or three-dimensional cylindrical symmetry. Only the azimuthally symmetric modes are found for cylindrically symmetric cavities. AUTOMESH prepares input for LATTICE from geometrical data describing the problem, (i.e., it constructs the 'logical' mesh and generates (x,y) coordinate data for straight lines, arcs of circles, and segments of hyperbolas). LATTICE generates an irregular triangular (physical) mesh from the input data, calculates the 'point current' terms at each mesh point in regions with distributed current density, and sets up the mesh point relaxation order needed to write the binary problem file for the equation-solving POISSON, PANDIRA, or SUPERFISH. FORCE calculates forces and torques on coils and iron regions from POISSON or PANDIRA solutions for the potential. MIRT optimizes magnet profiles, coil shapes, and current densities from POISSON output based on a
Coordination of Conditional Poisson Samples
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grafström Anton
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Sample coordination seeks to maximize or to minimize the overlap of two or more samples. The former is known as positive coordination, and the latter as negative coordination. Positive coordination is mainly used for estimation purposes and to reduce data collection costs. Negative coordination is mainly performed to diminish the response burden of the sampled units. Poisson sampling design with permanent random numbers provides an optimum coordination degree of two or more samples. The size of a Poisson sample is, however, random. Conditional Poisson (CP sampling is a modification of the classical Poisson sampling that produces a fixed-size πps sample. We introduce two methods to coordinate Conditional Poisson samples over time or simultaneously. The first one uses permanent random numbers and the list-sequential implementation of CP sampling. The second method uses a CP sample in the first selection and provides an approximate one in the second selection because the prescribed inclusion probabilities are not respected exactly. The methods are evaluated using the size of the expected sample overlap, and are compared with their competitors using Monte Carlo simulation. The new methods provide a good coordination degree of two samples, close to the performance of Poisson sampling with permanent random numbers.
Analyzing hospitalization data: potential limitations of Poisson regression.
Weaver, Colin G; Ravani, Pietro; Oliver, Matthew J; Austin, Peter C; Quinn, Robert R
2015-08-01
Poisson regression is commonly used to analyze hospitalization data when outcomes are expressed as counts (e.g. number of days in hospital). However, data often violate the assumptions on which Poisson regression is based. More appropriate extensions of this model, while available, are rarely used. We compared hospitalization data between 206 patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) and 107 treated with peritoneal dialysis (PD) using Poisson regression and compared results from standard Poisson regression with those obtained using three other approaches for modeling count data: negative binomial (NB) regression, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression. We examined the appropriateness of each model and compared the results obtained with each approach. During a mean 1.9 years of follow-up, 183 of 313 patients (58%) were never hospitalized (indicating an excess of 'zeros'). The data also displayed overdispersion (variance greater than mean), violating another assumption of the Poisson model. Using four criteria, we determined that the NB and ZINB models performed best. According to these two models, patients treated with HD experienced similar hospitalization rates as those receiving PD {NB rate ratio (RR): 1.04 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-2.20]; ZINB summary RR: 1.21 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.60-2.46)}. Poisson and ZIP models fit the data poorly and had much larger point estimates than the NB and ZINB models [Poisson RR: 1.93 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-4.23); ZIP summary RR: 1.84 (bootstrapped 95% CI 0.88-3.84)]. We found substantially different results when modeling hospitalization data, depending on the approach used. Our results argue strongly for a sound model selection process and improved reporting around statistical methods used for modeling count data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.
Analysis of overdispersed count data by mixtures of Poisson variables and Poisson processes.
Hougaard, P; Lee, M L; Whitmore, G A
1997-12-01
Count data often show overdispersion compared to the Poisson distribution. Overdispersion is typically modeled by a random effect for the mean, based on the gamma distribution, leading to the negative binomial distribution for the count. This paper considers a larger family of mixture distributions, including the inverse Gaussian mixture distribution. It is demonstrated that it gives a significantly better fit for a data set on the frequency of epileptic seizures. The same approach can be used to generate counting processes from Poisson processes, where the rate or the time is random. A random rate corresponds to variation between patients, whereas a random time corresponds to variation within patients.
A comparison of Poisson-one-inflated power series distributions for ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A class of Poisson-one-inflated power series distributions (the binomial, the Poisson, the negative binomial, the geometric, the log-series and the misrecorded Poisson) are proposed for modeling rural out-migration at the household level. The probability mass functions of the mixture distributions are derived and fitted to the ...
Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data.
Richardson, David B; Langholz, Bryan
2012-03-01
Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models.
Background stratified Poisson regression analysis of cohort data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richardson, David B.; Langholz, Bryan
2012-01-01
Background stratified Poisson regression is an approach that has been used in the analysis of data derived from a variety of epidemiologically important studies of radiation-exposed populations, including uranium miners, nuclear industry workers, and atomic bomb survivors. We describe a novel approach to fit Poisson regression models that adjust for a set of covariates through background stratification while directly estimating the radiation-disease association of primary interest. The approach makes use of an expression for the Poisson likelihood that treats the coefficients for stratum-specific indicator variables as 'nuisance' variables and avoids the need to explicitly estimate the coefficients for these stratum-specific parameters. Log-linear models, as well as other general relative rate models, are accommodated. This approach is illustrated using data from the Life Span Study of Japanese atomic bomb survivors and data from a study of underground uranium miners. The point estimate and confidence interval obtained from this 'conditional' regression approach are identical to the values obtained using unconditional Poisson regression with model terms for each background stratum. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed approach allows estimation of background stratified Poisson regression models of non-standard form, such as models that parameterize latency effects, as well as regression models in which the number of strata is large, thereby overcoming the limitations of previously available statistical software for fitting background stratified Poisson regression models. (orig.)
Transforming spatial point processes into Poisson processes using random superposition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaaard
with a complementary spatial point process Y to obtain a Poisson process X∪Y with intensity function β. Underlying this is a bivariate spatial birth-death process (Xt,Yt) which converges towards the distribution of (X,Y). We study the joint distribution of X and Y, and their marginal and conditional distributions....... In particular, we introduce a fast and easy simulation procedure for Y conditional on X. This may be used for model checking: given a model for the Papangelou intensity of the original spatial point process, this model is used to generate the complementary process, and the resulting superposition is a Poisson...... process with intensity function β if and only if the true Papangelou intensity is used. Whether the superposition is actually such a Poisson process can easily be examined using well known results and fast simulation procedures for Poisson processes. We illustrate this approach to model checking...
Doubly stochastic Poisson processes in artificial neural learning.
Card, H C
1998-01-01
This paper investigates neuron activation statistics in artificial neural networks employing stochastic arithmetic. It is shown that a doubly stochastic Poisson process is an appropriate model for the signals in these circuits.
Comparison between two bivariate Poisson distributions through the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
These two models express themselves by their probability mass function. ... To remedy this problem, Berkhout and Plug proposed a bivariate Poisson distribution accepting the correlation as well negative, equal to zero, that positive.
1983-05-20
Poisson processes is introduced: the amplitude has a law which is spherically invariant and the filter is real, linear and causal. It is shown how such a model can be identified from experimental data. (Author)
Boundary Lax pairs from non-ultra-local Poisson algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avan, Jean; Doikou, Anastasia
2009-01-01
We consider non-ultra-local linear Poisson algebras on a continuous line. Suitable combinations of representations of these algebras yield representations of novel generalized linear Poisson algebras or 'boundary' extensions. They are parametrized by a boundary scalar matrix and depend, in addition, on the choice of an antiautomorphism. The new algebras are the classical-linear counterparts of the known quadratic quantum boundary algebras. For any choice of parameters, the non-ultra-local contribution of the original Poisson algebra disappears. We also systematically construct the associated classical Lax pair. The classical boundary principal chiral model is examined as a physical example.
Fast and Accurate Poisson Denoising With Trainable Nonlinear Diffusion.
Feng, Wensen; Qiao, Peng; Chen, Yunjin; Wensen Feng; Peng Qiao; Yunjin Chen; Feng, Wensen; Chen, Yunjin; Qiao, Peng
2018-06-01
The degradation of the acquired signal by Poisson noise is a common problem for various imaging applications, such as medical imaging, night vision, and microscopy. Up to now, many state-of-the-art Poisson denoising techniques mainly concentrate on achieving utmost performance, with little consideration for the computation efficiency. Therefore, in this paper we aim to propose an efficient Poisson denoising model with both high computational efficiency and recovery quality. To this end, we exploit the newly developed trainable nonlinear reaction diffusion (TNRD) model which has proven an extremely fast image restoration approach with performance surpassing recent state-of-the-arts. However, the straightforward direct gradient descent employed in the original TNRD-based denoising task is not applicable in this paper. To solve this problem, we resort to the proximal gradient descent method. We retrain the model parameters, including the linear filters and influence functions by taking into account the Poisson noise statistics, and end up with a well-trained nonlinear diffusion model specialized for Poisson denoising. The trained model provides strongly competitive results against state-of-the-art approaches, meanwhile bearing the properties of simple structure and high efficiency. Furthermore, our proposed model comes along with an additional advantage, that the diffusion process is well-suited for parallel computation on graphics processing units (GPUs). For images of size , our GPU implementation takes less than 0.1 s to produce state-of-the-art Poisson denoising performance.
Comparison of Poisson structures and Poisson-Lie dynamical r-matrices
Enriquez, B.; Etingof, P.; Marshall, I.
2004-01-01
We construct a Poisson isomorphism between the formal Poisson manifolds g^* and G^*, where g is a finite dimensional quasitriangular Lie bialgebra. Here g^* is equipped with its Lie-Poisson (or Kostant-Kirillov-Souriau) structure, and G^* with its Poisson-Lie structure. We also quantize Poisson-Lie dynamical r-matrices of Balog-Feher-Palla.
NEWTPOIS- NEWTON POISSON DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM
Bowerman, P. N.
1994-01-01
The cumulative poisson distribution program, NEWTPOIS, is one of two programs which make calculations involving cumulative poisson distributions. Both programs, NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715) and CUMPOIS (NPO-17714), can be used independently of one another. NEWTPOIS determines percentiles for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and calculates percentiles for chi-square distributions with even degrees of freedom. It can be used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. NEWTPOIS determines the Poisson parameter (lambda), that is; the mean (or expected) number of events occurring in a given unit of time, area, or space. Given that the user already knows the cumulative probability for a specific number of occurrences (n) it is usually a simple matter of substitution into the Poisson distribution summation to arrive at lambda. However, direct calculation of the Poisson parameter becomes difficult for small positive values of n and unmanageable for large values. NEWTPOIS uses Newton's iteration method to extract lambda from the initial value condition of the Poisson distribution where n=0, taking successive estimations until some user specified error term (epsilon) is reached. The NEWTPOIS program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly on most C compilers. The program format is interactive, accepting epsilon, n, and the cumulative probability of the occurrence of n as inputs. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 30K. NEWTPOIS was developed in 1988.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jensen Just
2002-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider selection based on the best predictor of animal additive genetic values in Gaussian linear mixed models, threshold models, Poisson mixed models, and log normal frailty models for survival data (including models with time-dependent covariates with associated fixed or random effects. In the different models, expressions are given (when these can be found – otherwise unbiased estimates are given for prediction error variance, accuracy of selection and expected response to selection on the additive genetic scale and on the observed scale. The expressions given for non Gaussian traits are generalisations of the well-known formulas for Gaussian traits – and reflect, for Poisson mixed models and frailty models for survival data, the hierarchal structure of the models. In general the ratio of the additive genetic variance to the total variance in the Gaussian part of the model (heritability on the normally distributed level of the model or a generalised version of heritability plays a central role in these formulas.
Nonhomogeneous Poisson process with nonparametric frailty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slimacek, Vaclav; Lindqvist, Bo Henry
2016-01-01
The failure processes of heterogeneous repairable systems are often modeled by non-homogeneous Poisson processes. The common way to describe an unobserved heterogeneity between systems is to multiply the basic rate of occurrence of failures by a random variable (a so-called frailty) having a specified parametric distribution. Since the frailty is unobservable, the choice of its distribution is a problematic part of using these models, as are often the numerical computations needed in the estimation of these models. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a method for estimation of the parameters of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with unobserved heterogeneity which does not require parametric assumptions about the heterogeneity and which avoids the frequently encountered numerical problems associated with the standard models for unobserved heterogeneity. The introduced method is illustrated on an example involving the power law process, and is compared to the standard gamma frailty model and to the classical model without unobserved heterogeneity. The derived results are confirmed in a simulation study which also reveals several not commonly known properties of the gamma frailty model and the classical model, and on a real life example. - Highlights: • A new method for estimation of a NHPP with frailty is introduced. • Introduced method does not require parametric assumptions about frailty. • The approach is illustrated on an example with the power law process. • The method is compared to the gamma frailty model and to the model without frailty.
Poisson structure of the equations of ideal multispecies fluid electrodynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spencer, R.G.
1984-01-01
The equations of the two- (or multi-) fluid model of plasma physics are recast in Hamiltonian form, following general methods of symplectic geometry. The dynamical variables are the fields of physical interest, but are noncanonical, so that the Poisson bracket in the theory is not the standard one. However, it is a skew-symmetric bilinear form which, from the method of derivation, automatically satisfies the Jacobi identity; therefore, this noncanonical structure has all the essential properties of a canonical Poisson bracket
Graded geometry and Poisson reduction
Cattaneo, A S; Zambon, M
2009-01-01
The main result of [2] extends the Marsden-Ratiu reduction theorem [4] in Poisson geometry, and is proven by means of graded geometry. In this note we provide the background material about graded geometry necessary for the proof in [2]. Further, we provide an alternative algebraic proof for the main result. ©2009 American Institute of Physics
Normal forms for Poisson maps and symplectic groupoids around Poisson transversals.
Frejlich, Pedro; Mărcuț, Ioan
2018-01-01
Poisson transversals are submanifolds in a Poisson manifold which intersect all symplectic leaves transversally and symplectically. In this communication, we prove a normal form theorem for Poisson maps around Poisson transversals. A Poisson map pulls a Poisson transversal back to a Poisson transversal, and our first main result states that simultaneous normal forms exist around such transversals, for which the Poisson map becomes transversally linear, and intertwines the normal form data of the transversals. Our second result concerns symplectic integrations. We prove that a neighborhood of a Poisson transversal is integrable exactly when the Poisson transversal itself is integrable, and in that case we prove a normal form theorem for the symplectic groupoid around its restriction to the Poisson transversal, which puts all structure maps in normal form. We conclude by illustrating our results with examples arising from Lie algebras.
Independent production and Poisson distribution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Golokhvastov, A.I.
1994-01-01
The well-known statement of factorization of inclusive cross-sections in case of independent production of particles (or clusters, jets etc.) and the conclusion of Poisson distribution over their multiplicity arising from it do not follow from the probability theory in any way. Using accurately the theorem of the product of independent probabilities, quite different equations are obtained and no consequences relative to multiplicity distributions are obtained. 11 refs
A generalized gyrokinetic Poisson solver
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin, Z.; Lee, W.W.
1995-03-01
A generalized gyrokinetic Poisson solver has been developed, which employs local operations in the configuration space to compute the polarization density response. The new technique is based on the actual physical process of gyrophase-averaging. It is useful for nonlocal simulations using general geometry equilibrium. Since it utilizes local operations rather than the global ones such as FFT, the new method is most amenable to massively parallel algorithms
Poisson denoising on the sphere
Schmitt, J.; Starck, J. L.; Fadili, J.; Grenier, I.; Casandjian, J. M.
2009-08-01
In the scope of the Fermi mission, Poisson noise removal should improve data quality and make source detection easier. This paper presents a method for Poisson data denoising on sphere, called Multi-Scale Variance Stabilizing Transform on Sphere (MS-VSTS). This method is based on a Variance Stabilizing Transform (VST), a transform which aims to stabilize a Poisson data set such that each stabilized sample has an (asymptotically) constant variance. In addition, for the VST used in the method, the transformed data are asymptotically Gaussian. Thus, MS-VSTS consists in decomposing the data into a sparse multi-scale dictionary (wavelets, curvelets, ridgelets...), and then applying a VST on the coefficients in order to get quasi-Gaussian stabilized coefficients. In this present article, the used multi-scale transform is the Isotropic Undecimated Wavelet Transform. Then, hypothesis tests are made to detect significant coefficients, and the denoised image is reconstructed with an iterative method based on Hybrid Steepest Descent (HST). The method is tested on simulated Fermi data.
Singularities of Poisson structures and Hamiltonian bifurcations
Meer, van der J.C.
2010-01-01
Consider a Poisson structure on C8(R3,R) with bracket {, } and suppose that C is a Casimir function. Then {f, g} =<¿C, (¿g x ¿f) > is a possible Poisson structure. This confirms earlier observations concerning the Poisson structure for Hamiltonian systems that are reduced to a one degree of freedom
A Martingale Characterization of Mixed Poisson Processes.
1985-10-01
03LA A 11. TITLE (Inciuae Security Clanafication, ",A martingale characterization of mixed Poisson processes " ________________ 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR... POISSON PROCESSES Jostification .......... . ... . . Di.;t ib,,jtion by Availability Codes Dietmar Pfeifer* Technical University Aachen Dist Special and...Mixed Poisson processes play an important role in many branches of applied probability, for instance in insurance mathematics and physics (see Albrecht
Variational Gaussian approximation for Poisson data
Arridge, Simon R.; Ito, Kazufumi; Jin, Bangti; Zhang, Chen
2018-02-01
The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution arising from the Poisson model with a Gaussian prior. This is achieved by seeking an optimal Gaussian distribution minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the posterior distribution to the approximation, or equivalently maximizing the lower bound for the model evidence. We derive an explicit expression for the lower bound, and show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal Gaussian approximation. The lower bound functional can be viewed as a variant of classical Tikhonov regularization that penalizes also the covariance. Then we develop an efficient alternating direction maximization algorithm for solving the optimization problem, and analyze its convergence. We discuss strategies for reducing the computational complexity via low rank structure of the forward operator and the sparsity of the covariance. Further, as an application of the lower bound, we discuss hierarchical Bayesian modeling for selecting the hyperparameter in the prior distribution, and propose a monotonically convergent algorithm for determining the hyperparameter. We present extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the Gaussian approximation and the algorithms.
NHPoisson: An R Package for Fitting and Validating Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana C. Cebrián
2015-03-01
Full Text Available NHPoisson is an R package for the modeling of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes in one dimension. It includes functions for data preparation, maximum likelihood estimation, covariate selection and inference based on asymptotic distributions and simulation methods. It also provides specific methods for the estimation of Poisson processes resulting from a peak over threshold approach. In addition, the package supports a wide range of model validation tools and functions for generating nonhomogenous Poisson process trajectories. This paper is a description of the package and aims to help those interested in modeling data using nonhomogeneous Poisson processes.
Pods, Jurgis; Schönke, Johannes; Bastian, Peter
2013-01-01
In neurophysiology, extracellular signals—as measured by local field potentials (LFP) or electroencephalography—are of great significance. Their exact biophysical basis is, however, still not fully understood. We present a three-dimensional model exploiting the cylinder symmetry of a single axon in extracellular fluid based on the Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations of electrodiffusion. The propagation of an action potential along the axonal membrane is investigated by means of numerical simulations. Special attention is paid to the Debye layer, the region with strong concentration gradients close to the membrane, which is explicitly resolved by the computational mesh. We focus on the evolution of the extracellular electric potential. A characteristic up-down-up LFP waveform in the far-field is found. Close to the membrane, the potential shows a more intricate shape. A comparison with the widely used line source approximation reveals similarities and demonstrates the strong influence of membrane currents. However, the electrodiffusion model shows another signal component stemming directly from the intracellular electric field, called the action potential echo. Depending on the neuronal configuration, this might have a significant effect on the LFP. In these situations, electrodiffusion models should be used for quantitative comparisons with experimental data. PMID:23823244
Perturbation-induced emergence of Poisson-like behavior in non-Poisson systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akin, Osman C; Grigolini, Paolo; Paradisi, Paolo
2009-01-01
The response of a system with ON–OFF intermittency to an external harmonic perturbation is discussed. ON–OFF intermittency is described by means of a sequence of random events, i.e., the transitions from the ON to the OFF state and vice versa. The unperturbed waiting times (WTs) between two events are assumed to satisfy a renewal condition, i.e., the WTs are statistically independent random variables. The response of a renewal model with non-Poisson ON–OFF intermittency, associated with non-exponential WT distribution, is analyzed by looking at the changes induced in the WT statistical distribution by the harmonic perturbation. The scaling properties are also studied by means of diffusion entropy analysis. It is found that, in the range of fast and relatively strong perturbation, the non-Poisson system displays a Poisson-like behavior in both WT distribution and scaling. In particular, the histogram of perturbed WTs becomes a sequence of equally spaced peaks, with intensity decaying exponentially in time. Further, the diffusion entropy detects an ordinary scaling (related to normal diffusion) instead of the expected unperturbed anomalous scaling related to the inverse power-law decay. Thus, an analysis based on the WT histogram and/or on scaling methods has to be considered with some care when dealing with perturbed intermittent systems
Seasonally adjusted birth frequencies follow the Poisson distribution.
Barra, Mathias; Lindstrøm, Jonas C; Adams, Samantha S; Augestad, Liv A
2015-12-15
Variations in birth frequencies have an impact on activity planning in maternity wards. Previous studies of this phenomenon have commonly included elective births. A Danish study of spontaneous births found that birth frequencies were well modelled by a Poisson process. Somewhat unexpectedly, there were also weekly variations in the frequency of spontaneous births. Another study claimed that birth frequencies follow the Benford distribution. Our objective was to test these results. We analysed 50,017 spontaneous births at Akershus University Hospital in the period 1999-2014. To investigate the Poisson distribution of these births, we plotted their variance over a sliding average. We specified various Poisson regression models, with the number of births on a given day as the outcome variable. The explanatory variables included various combinations of years, months, days of the week and the digit sum of the date. The relationship between the variance and the average fits well with an underlying Poisson process. A Benford distribution was disproved by a goodness-of-fit test (p Poisson process when monthly and day-of-the-week variation is included. The frequency is highest in summer towards June and July, Friday and Tuesday stand out as particularly busy days, and the activity level is at its lowest during weekends.
Poisson's ratio of fiber-reinforced composites
Christiansson, Henrik; Helsing, Johan
1996-05-01
Poisson's ratio flow diagrams, that is, the Poisson's ratio versus the fiber fraction, are obtained numerically for hexagonal arrays of elastic circular fibers in an elastic matrix. High numerical accuracy is achieved through the use of an interface integral equation method. Questions concerning fixed point theorems and the validity of existing asymptotic relations are investigated and partially resolved. Our findings for the transverse effective Poisson's ratio, together with earlier results for random systems by other authors, make it possible to formulate a general statement for Poisson's ratio flow diagrams: For composites with circular fibers and where the phase Poisson's ratios are equal to 1/3, the system with the lowest stiffness ratio has the highest Poisson's ratio. For other choices of the elastic moduli for the phases, no simple statement can be made.
Surface reconstruction through poisson disk sampling.
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Wenguang Hou
Full Text Available This paper intends to generate the approximate Voronoi diagram in the geodesic metric for some unbiased samples selected from original points. The mesh model of seeds is then constructed on basis of the Voronoi diagram. Rather than constructing the Voronoi diagram for all original points, the proposed strategy is to run around the obstacle that the geodesic distances among neighboring points are sensitive to nearest neighbor definition. It is obvious that the reconstructed model is the level of detail of original points. Hence, our main motivation is to deal with the redundant scattered points. In implementation, Poisson disk sampling is taken to select seeds and helps to produce the Voronoi diagram. Adaptive reconstructions can be achieved by slightly changing the uniform strategy in selecting seeds. Behaviors of this method are investigated and accuracy evaluations are done. Experimental results show the proposed method is reliable and effective.
Singular reduction of Nambu-Poisson manifolds
Das, Apurba
The version of Marsden-Ratiu Poisson reduction theorem for Nambu-Poisson manifolds by a regular foliation have been studied by Ibáñez et al. In this paper, we show that this reduction procedure can be extended to the singular case. Under a suitable notion of Hamiltonian flow on the reduced space, we show that a set of Hamiltonians on a Nambu-Poisson manifold can also be reduced.
Non-holonomic dynamics and Poisson geometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borisov, A V; Mamaev, I S; Tsiganov, A V
2014-01-01
This is a survey of basic facts presently known about non-linear Poisson structures in the analysis of integrable systems in non-holonomic mechanics. It is shown that by using the theory of Poisson deformations it is possible to reduce various non-holonomic systems to dynamical systems on well-understood phase spaces equipped with linear Lie-Poisson brackets. As a result, not only can different non-holonomic systems be compared, but also fairly advanced methods of Poisson geometry and topology can be used for investigating them. Bibliography: 95 titles
Poisson-Fermi Formulation of Nonlocal Electrostatics in Electrolyte Solutions
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Liu Jinn-Liang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available We present a nonlocal electrostatic formulation of nonuniform ions and water molecules with interstitial voids that uses a Fermi-like distribution to account for steric and correlation efects in electrolyte solutions. The formulation is based on the volume exclusion of hard spheres leading to a steric potential and Maxwell’s displacement field with Yukawa-type interactions resulting in a nonlocal electric potential. The classical Poisson-Boltzmann model fails to describe steric and correlation effects important in a variety of chemical and biological systems, especially in high field or large concentration conditions found in and near binding sites, ion channels, and electrodes. Steric effects and correlations are apparent when we compare nonlocal Poisson-Fermi results to Poisson-Boltzmann calculations in electric double layer and to experimental measurements on the selectivity of potassium channels for K+ over Na+.
Information content of poisson images
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cederlund, J.
1979-04-01
One major problem when producing images with the aid of Poisson distributed quanta is how best to compromise between spatial and contrast resolution. Increasing the number of image elements improves spatial resolution, but at the cost of fewer quanta per image element, which reduces contrast resolution. Information theory arguments are used to analyse this problem. It is argued that information capacity is a useful concept to describe an important property of the imaging device, but that in order to compute the information content of an image produced by this device some statistical properties (such as the a priori probability of the densities) of the object to be depicted must be taken into account. If these statistical properties are not known one cannot make a correct choice between spatial and contrast resolution. (author)
Wang, Fengwen
2018-05-01
This paper presents a systematic approach for designing 3D auxetic lattice materials, which exhibit constant negative Poisson's ratios over large strain intervals. A unit cell model mimicking tensile tests is established and based on the proposed model, the secant Poisson's ratio is defined as the negative ratio between the lateral and the longitudinal engineering strains. The optimization problem for designing a material unit cell with a target Poisson's ratio is formulated to minimize the average lateral engineering stresses under the prescribed deformations. Numerical results demonstrate that 3D auxetic lattice materials with constant Poisson's ratios can be achieved by the proposed optimization formulation and that two sets of material architectures are obtained by imposing different symmetry on the unit cell. Moreover, inspired by the topology-optimized material architecture, a subsequent shape optimization is proposed by parametrizing material architectures using super-ellipsoids. By designing two geometrical parameters, simple optimized material microstructures with different target Poisson's ratios are obtained. By interpolating these two parameters as polynomial functions of Poisson's ratios, material architectures for any Poisson's ratio in the interval of ν ∈ [ - 0.78 , 0.00 ] are explicitly presented. Numerical evaluations show that interpolated auxetic lattice materials exhibit constant Poisson's ratios in the target strain interval of [0.00, 0.20] and that 3D auxetic lattice material architectures with programmable Poisson's ratio are achievable.
On (co)homology of Frobenius Poisson algebras
Zhu, Can; Van Oystaeyen, Fred; ZHANG, Yinhuo
2014-01-01
In this paper, we study Poisson (co)homology of a Frobenius Poisson algebra. More precisely, we show that there exists a duality between Poisson homology and Poisson cohomology of Frobenius Poisson algebras, similar to that between Hochschild homology and Hochschild cohomology of Frobenius algebras. Then we use the non-degenerate bilinear form on a unimodular Frobenius Poisson algebra to construct a Batalin-Vilkovisky structure on the Poisson cohomology ring making it into a Batalin-Vilkovisk...
Thinning spatial point processes into Poisson processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik
2010-01-01
are identified, and where we simulate backwards and forwards in order to obtain the thinned process. In the case of a Cox process, a simple independent thinning technique is proposed. In both cases, the thinning results in a Poisson process if and only if the true Papangelou conditional intensity is used, and......In this paper we describe methods for randomly thinning certain classes of spatial point processes. In the case of a Markov point process, the proposed method involves a dependent thinning of a spatial birth-and-death process, where clans of ancestors associated with the original points......, thus, can be used as a graphical exploratory tool for inspecting the goodness-of-fit of a spatial point process model. Several examples, including clustered and inhibitive point processes, are considered....
Thinning spatial point processes into Poisson processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik
, and where one simulates backwards and forwards in order to obtain the thinned process. In the case of a Cox process, a simple independent thinning technique is proposed. In both cases, the thinning results in a Poisson process if and only if the true Papangelou conditional intensity is used, and thus can......This paper describes methods for randomly thinning certain classes of spatial point processes. In the case of a Markov point process, the proposed method involves a dependent thinning of a spatial birth-and-death process, where clans of ancestors associated with the original points are identified...... be used as a diagnostic for assessing the goodness-of-fit of a spatial point process model. Several examples, including clustered and inhibitive point processes, are considered....
POISSON, Analysis Solution of Poisson Problems in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Froehner, F.H.
1986-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: Purpose of program: Analytic treatment of two-stage Poisson problem in Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Input: estimated a-priori mean failure rate and error factor of system considered (for calculation of stage-1 prior), number of failures and operating times for similar systems (for calculation of stage-2 prior). Output: a-posteriori probability distributions on linear and logarithmic time scale (on specified time grid) and expectation values of failure rate and error factors are calculated for: - stage-1 a-priori distribution, - stage-1 a-posteriori distribution, - stage-2 a-priori distribution, - stage-2 a-posteriori distribution. 2 - Method of solution: Bayesian approach with conjugate stage-1 prior, improved with experience from similar systems to yield stage-2 prior, and likelihood function from experience with system under study (documentation see below under 10.). 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Up to 100 similar systems (including the system considered), arbitrary number of problems (failure types) with same grid
Poisson geometry from a Dirac perspective
Meinrenken, Eckhard
2018-03-01
We present proofs of classical results in Poisson geometry using techniques from Dirac geometry. This article is based on mini-courses at the Poisson summer school in Geneva, June 2016, and at the workshop Quantum Groups and Gravity at the University of Waterloo, April 2016.
Associative and Lie deformations of Poisson algebras
Remm, Elisabeth
2011-01-01
Considering a Poisson algebra as a non associative algebra satisfying the Markl-Remm identity, we study deformations of Poisson algebras as deformations of this non associative algebra. This gives a natural interpretation of deformations which preserves the underlying associative structure and we study deformations which preserve the underlying Lie algebra.
Estimating the period of a cyclic non-homogeneous Poisson process
Belitser, E.; Andrade Serra, De P.J.; Zanten, van J.H.
2013-01-01
Motivated by applications of Poisson processes for modelling periodic time-varying phenomena, we study a semi-parametric estimator of the period of cyclic intensity function of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. There are no parametric assumptions on the intensity function which is treated as an
The cylindrical K-function and Poisson line cluster point processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Møller, Jesper; Safavimanesh, Farzaneh; Rasmussen, Jakob G.
Poisson line cluster point processes, is also introduced. Parameter estimation based on moment methods or Bayesian inference for this model is discussed when the underlying Poisson line process and the cluster memberships are treated as hidden processes. To illustrate the methodologies, we analyze two...
Area-to-Area Poisson Kriging and Spatial Bayesian Analysis
Asmarian, Naeimehossadat; Jafari-Koshki, Tohid; Soleimani, Ali; Taghi Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad
2016-10-01
Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Areato- area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran. Creative Commons Attribution License
Poisson Regression Analysis of Illness and Injury Surveillance Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Frome E.L., Watkins J.P., Ellis E.D.
2012-12-12
The Department of Energy (DOE) uses illness and injury surveillance to monitor morbidity and assess the overall health of the work force. Data collected from each participating site include health events and a roster file with demographic information. The source data files are maintained in a relational data base, and are used to obtain stratified tables of health event counts and person time at risk that serve as the starting point for Poisson regression analysis. The explanatory variables that define these tables are age, gender, occupational group, and time. Typical response variables of interest are the number of absences due to illness or injury, i.e., the response variable is a count. Poisson regression methods are used to describe the effect of the explanatory variables on the health event rates using a log-linear main effects model. Results of fitting the main effects model are summarized in a tabular and graphical form and interpretation of model parameters is provided. An analysis of deviance table is used to evaluate the importance of each of the explanatory variables on the event rate of interest and to determine if interaction terms should be considered in the analysis. Although Poisson regression methods are widely used in the analysis of count data, there are situations in which over-dispersion occurs. This could be due to lack-of-fit of the regression model, extra-Poisson variation, or both. A score test statistic and regression diagnostics are used to identify over-dispersion. A quasi-likelihood method of moments procedure is used to evaluate and adjust for extra-Poisson variation when necessary. Two examples are presented using respiratory disease absence rates at two DOE sites to illustrate the methods and interpretation of the results. In the first example the Poisson main effects model is adequate. In the second example the score test indicates considerable over-dispersion and a more detailed analysis attributes the over-dispersion to extra-Poisson
A twisted generalization of Novikov-Poisson algebras
Yau, Donald
2010-01-01
Hom-Novikov-Poisson algebras, which are twisted generalizations of Novikov-Poisson algebras, are studied. Hom-Novikov-Poisson algebras are shown to be closed under tensor products and several kinds of twistings. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given under which Hom-Novikov-Poisson algebras give rise to Hom-Poisson algebras.
Womack, James C; Anton, Lucian; Dziedzic, Jacek; Hasnip, Phil J; Probert, Matt I J; Skylaris, Chris-Kriton
2018-03-13
The solution of the Poisson equation is a crucial step in electronic structure calculations, yielding the electrostatic potential-a key component of the quantum mechanical Hamiltonian. In recent decades, theoretical advances and increases in computer performance have made it possible to simulate the electronic structure of extended systems in complex environments. This requires the solution of more complicated variants of the Poisson equation, featuring nonhomogeneous dielectric permittivities, ionic concentrations with nonlinear dependencies, and diverse boundary conditions. The analytic solutions generally used to solve the Poisson equation in vacuum (or with homogeneous permittivity) are not applicable in these circumstances, and numerical methods must be used. In this work, we present DL_MG, a flexible, scalable, and accurate solver library, developed specifically to tackle the challenges of solving the Poisson equation in modern large-scale electronic structure calculations on parallel computers. Our solver is based on the multigrid approach and uses an iterative high-order defect correction method to improve the accuracy of solutions. Using two chemically relevant model systems, we tested the accuracy and computational performance of DL_MG when solving the generalized Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann equations, demonstrating excellent agreement with analytic solutions and efficient scaling to ∼10 9 unknowns and 100s of CPU cores. We also applied DL_MG in actual large-scale electronic structure calculations, using the ONETEP linear-scaling electronic structure package to study a 2615 atom protein-ligand complex with routinely available computational resources. In these calculations, the overall execution time with DL_MG was not significantly greater than the time required for calculations using a conventional FFT-based solver.
Multi-parameter full waveform inversion using Poisson
Oh, Juwon
2016-07-21
In multi-parameter full waveform inversion (FWI), the success of recovering each parameter is dependent on characteristics of the partial derivative wavefields (or virtual sources), which differ according to parameterisation. Elastic FWIs based on the two conventional parameterisations (one uses Lame constants and density; the other employs P- and S-wave velocities and density) have low resolution of gradients for P-wave velocities (or ). Limitations occur because the virtual sources for P-wave velocity or (one of the Lame constants) are related only to P-P diffracted waves, and generate isotropic explosions, which reduce the spatial resolution of the FWI for these parameters. To increase the spatial resolution, we propose a new parameterisation using P-wave velocity, Poisson\\'s ratio, and density for frequency-domain multi-parameter FWI for isotropic elastic media. By introducing Poisson\\'s ratio instead of S-wave velocity, the virtual source for the P-wave velocity generates P-S and S-S diffracted waves as well as P-P diffracted waves in the partial derivative wavefields for the P-wave velocity. Numerical examples of the cross-triangle-square (CTS) model indicate that the new parameterisation provides highly resolved descent directions for the P-wave velocity. Numerical examples of noise-free and noisy data synthesised for the elastic Marmousi-II model support the fact that the new parameterisation is more robust for noise than the two conventional parameterisations.
Particle-wave discrimination in Poisson spot experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reisinger, T; Bracco, G; Holst, B
2011-01-01
Matter-wave interferometry has been used extensively over the last few years to demonstrate the quantum-mechanical wave nature of increasingly larger and more massive particles. We have recently suggested the use of the historical Poisson spot setup to test the diffraction properties of larger objects. In this paper, we present the results of a classical particle van der Waals (vdW) force model for a Poisson spot experimental setup and compare these to Fresnel diffraction calculations with a vdW phase term. We include the effect of disc-edge roughness in both models. Calculations are performed with D 2 and with C 70 using realistic parameters. We find that the sensitivity of the on-axis interference/focus spot to disc-edge roughness is very different in the two cases. We conclude that by measuring the intensity on the optical axis as a function of disc-edge roughness, it can be determined whether the objects behave as de Broglie waves or classical particles. The scaling of the Poisson spot experiment to larger molecular masses is, however, not as favorable as in the case of near-field light-grating-based interferometers. Instead, we discuss the possibility of studying the Casimir-Polder potential using the Poisson spot setup.
Zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson Distribution to Analyze Discrete Data.
Sim, Shin Zhu; Gupta, Ramesh C; Ong, Seng Huat
2018-01-09
In this paper, we study the zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell Poisson (ZICMP) distribution and develop a regression model. Score and likelihood ratio tests are also implemented for testing the inflation/deflation parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performance of these tests. A data example is presented to illustrate the concepts. In this example, the proposed model is compared to the well-known zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and the zero- inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) regression models. It is shown that the fit by ZICMP is comparable or better than these models.
Constructions and classifications of projective Poisson varieties
Pym, Brent
2018-03-01
This paper is intended both as an introduction to the algebraic geometry of holomorphic Poisson brackets, and as a survey of results on the classification of projective Poisson manifolds that have been obtained in the past 20 years. It is based on the lecture series delivered by the author at the Poisson 2016 Summer School in Geneva. The paper begins with a detailed treatment of Poisson surfaces, including adjunction, ruled surfaces and blowups, and leading to a statement of the full birational classification. We then describe several constructions of Poisson threefolds, outlining the classification in the regular case, and the case of rank-one Fano threefolds (such as projective space). Following a brief introduction to the notion of Poisson subspaces, we discuss Bondal's conjecture on the dimensions of degeneracy loci on Poisson Fano manifolds. We close with a discussion of log symplectic manifolds with simple normal crossings degeneracy divisor, including a new proof of the classification in the case of rank-one Fano manifolds.
Constructions and classifications of projective Poisson varieties.
Pym, Brent
2018-01-01
This paper is intended both as an introduction to the algebraic geometry of holomorphic Poisson brackets, and as a survey of results on the classification of projective Poisson manifolds that have been obtained in the past 20 years. It is based on the lecture series delivered by the author at the Poisson 2016 Summer School in Geneva. The paper begins with a detailed treatment of Poisson surfaces, including adjunction, ruled surfaces and blowups, and leading to a statement of the full birational classification. We then describe several constructions of Poisson threefolds, outlining the classification in the regular case, and the case of rank-one Fano threefolds (such as projective space). Following a brief introduction to the notion of Poisson subspaces, we discuss Bondal's conjecture on the dimensions of degeneracy loci on Poisson Fano manifolds. We close with a discussion of log symplectic manifolds with simple normal crossings degeneracy divisor, including a new proof of the classification in the case of rank-one Fano manifolds.
Poisson-Hopf limit of quantum algebras
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballesteros, A; Celeghini, E; Olmo, M A del
2009-01-01
The Poisson-Hopf analogue of an arbitrary quantum algebra U z (g) is constructed by introducing a one-parameter family of quantizations U z,ℎ (g) depending explicitly on ℎ and by taking the appropriate ℎ → 0 limit. The q-Poisson analogues of the su(2) algebra are discussed and the novel su q P (3) case is introduced. The q-Serre relations are also extended to the Poisson limit. This approach opens the perspective for possible applications of higher rank q-deformed Hopf algebras in semiclassical contexts
A Review of Multivariate Distributions for Count Data Derived from the Poisson Distribution.
Inouye, David; Yang, Eunho; Allen, Genevera; Ravikumar, Pradeep
2017-01-01
The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world high-dimensional count-valued data found in word counts, genomics, and crime statistics, for example, exhibit rich dependencies, and motivate the need for multivariate distributions that can appropriately model this data. We review multivariate distributions derived from the univariate Poisson, categorizing these models into three main classes: 1) where the marginal distributions are Poisson, 2) where the joint distribution is a mixture of independent multivariate Poisson distributions, and 3) where the node-conditional distributions are derived from the Poisson. We discuss the development of multiple instances of these classes and compare the models in terms of interpretability and theory. Then, we empirically compare multiple models from each class on three real-world datasets that have varying data characteristics from different domains, namely traffic accident data, biological next generation sequencing data, and text data. These empirical experiments develop intuition about the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each class of multivariate distribution that was derived from the Poisson. Finally, we suggest new research directions as explored in the subsequent discussion section.
Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus of lipid bilayers in different phases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tayebeh eJadidi
2014-04-01
Full Text Available A general computational method is introduced to estimate the Poisson's ratio for membranes with small thickness.In this method, the Poisson's ratio is calculated by utilizing a rescaling of inter-particle distancesin one lateral direction under periodic boundary conditions. As an example for the coarse grained lipid model introduced by Lenz and Schmid, we calculate the Poisson's ratio in the gel, fluid, and interdigitated phases. Having the Poisson's ratio, enable us to obtain the Young's modulus for the membranes in different phases. The approach may be applied to other membranes such as graphene and tethered membranes in orderto predict the temperature dependence of its Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus.
The Poisson equation on Klein surfaces
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Monica Rosiu
2016-04-01
Full Text Available We obtain a formula for the solution of the Poisson equation with Dirichlet boundary condition on a region of a Klein surface. This formula reveals the symmetric character of the solution.
Poisson point processes imaging, tracking, and sensing
Streit, Roy L
2010-01-01
This overview of non-homogeneous and multidimensional Poisson point processes and their applications features mathematical tools and applications from emission- and transmission-computed tomography to multiple target tracking and distributed sensor detection.
Noncommutative gauge theory for Poisson manifolds
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jurco, Branislav E-mail: jurco@mpim-bonn.mpg.de; Schupp, Peter E-mail: schupp@theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de; Wess, Julius E-mail: wess@theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de
2000-09-25
A noncommutative gauge theory is associated to every Abelian gauge theory on a Poisson manifold. The semi-classical and full quantum version of the map from the ordinary gauge theory to the noncommutative gauge theory (Seiberg-Witten map) is given explicitly to all orders for any Poisson manifold in the Abelian case. In the quantum case the construction is based on Kontsevich's formality theorem.
Noncommutative gauge theory for Poisson manifolds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jurco, Branislav; Schupp, Peter; Wess, Julius
2000-01-01
A noncommutative gauge theory is associated to every Abelian gauge theory on a Poisson manifold. The semi-classical and full quantum version of the map from the ordinary gauge theory to the noncommutative gauge theory (Seiberg-Witten map) is given explicitly to all orders for any Poisson manifold in the Abelian case. In the quantum case the construction is based on Kontsevich's formality theorem
Principles of applying Poisson units in radiology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benyumovich, M.S.
2000-01-01
The probability that radioactive particles hit particular space patterns (e.g. cells in the squares of a count chamber net) and time intervals (e.g. radioactive particles hit a given area per time unit) follows the Poisson distribution. The mean is the only parameter from which all this distribution depends. A metrological base of counting the cells and radioactive particles is a property of the Poisson distribution assuming equality of a standard deviation to a root square of mean (property 1). The application of Poisson units in counting of blood formed elements and cultured cells was proposed by us (Russian Federation Patent No. 2126230). Poisson units relate to the means which make the property 1 valid. In a case of cells counting, the square of these units is equal to 1/10 of one of count chamber net where they count the cells. Thus one finds the means from the single cell count rate divided by 10. Finding the Poisson units when counting the radioactive particles should assume determination of a number of these particles sufficient to make equality 1 valid. To this end one should subdivide a time interval used in counting a single particle count rate into different number of equal portions (count numbers). Next one should pick out the count number ensuring the satisfaction of equality 1. Such a portion is taken as a Poisson unit in the radioactive particles count. If the flux of particles is controllable one should set up a count rate sufficient to make equality 1 valid. Operations with means obtained by with the use of Poisson units are performed on the base of approximation of the Poisson distribution by a normal one. (author)
Multivariate fractional Poisson processes and compound sums
Beghin, Luisa; Macci, Claudio
2015-01-01
In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.
Poisson structure of dynamical systems with three degrees of freedom
Gümral, Hasan; Nutku, Yavuz
1993-12-01
It is shown that the Poisson structure of dynamical systems with three degrees of freedom can be defined in terms of an integrable one-form in three dimensions. Advantage is taken of this fact and the theory of foliations is used in discussing the geometrical structure underlying complete and partial integrability. Techniques for finding Poisson structures are presented and applied to various examples such as the Halphen system which has been studied as the two-monopole problem by Atiyah and Hitchin. It is shown that the Halphen system can be formulated in terms of a flat SL(2,R)-valued connection and belongs to a nontrivial Godbillon-Vey class. On the other hand, for the Euler top and a special case of three-species Lotka-Volterra equations which are contained in the Halphen system as limiting cases, this structure degenerates into the form of globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian structures. The globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian case is a linear and the SL(2,R) structure is a quadratic unfolding of an integrable one-form in 3+1 dimensions. It is shown that the existence of a vector field compatible with the flow is a powerful tool in the investigation of Poisson structure and some new techniques for incorporating arbitrary constants into the Poisson one-form are presented herein. This leads to some extensions, analogous to q extensions, of Poisson structure. The Kermack-McKendrick model and some of its generalizations describing the spread of epidemics, as well as the integrable cases of the Lorenz, Lotka-Volterra, May-Leonard, and Maxwell-Bloch systems admit globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian structure.
Quantization of the Poisson SU(2) and its Poisson homogeneous space - the 2-sphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sheu, A.J.L.
1991-01-01
We show that deformation quantizations of the Poisson structures on the Poisson Lie group SU(2) and its homogeneous space, the 2-sphere, are compatible with Woronowicz's deformation quantization of SU(2)'s group structure and Podles' deformation quantization of 2-sphere's homogeneous structure, respectively. So in a certain sense the multiplicativity of the Lie Poisson structure on SU(2) at the classical level is preserved under quantization. (orig.)
Regularization parameter selection methods for ill-posed Poisson maximum likelihood estimation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bardsley, Johnathan M; Goldes, John
2009-01-01
In image processing applications, image intensity is often measured via the counting of incident photons emitted by the object of interest. In such cases, image data noise is accurately modeled by a Poisson distribution. This motivates the use of Poisson maximum likelihood estimation for image reconstruction. However, when the underlying model equation is ill-posed, regularization is needed. Regularized Poisson likelihood estimation has been studied extensively by the authors, though a problem of high importance remains: the choice of the regularization parameter. We will present three statistically motivated methods for choosing the regularization parameter, and numerical examples will be presented to illustrate their effectiveness
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Darko Medved
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With the introduction of Solvency II a consistent market approach to the valuation of insurance assets and liabilities is required. For the best estimate of life annuity provisions one should estimate the longevity risk of the insured population in Slovenia. In this paper the current minimum standard in Slovenia for calculating pension annuities is tested using the Lee-Carter model. In particular, the mortality of the Slovenian population is projected using the best fit from the stochastic mortality projections method. The projected mortality statistics are then corrected with the selection effect and compared with the current minimum standard.
Investigation of Random Switching Driven by a Poisson Point Process
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, Maria; Schiøler, Henrik; Leth, John-Josef
2015-01-01
This paper investigates the switching mechanism of a two-dimensional switched system, when the switching events are generated by a Poisson point process. A model, in the shape of a stochastic process, for such a system is derived and the distribution of the trajectory's position is developed...... together with marginal density functions for the coordinate functions. Furthermore, the joint probability distribution is given explicitly....
Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Engelhardt, M.E.
1994-09-01
The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given
Generalized Poisson processes in quantum mechanics and field theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Combe, P.; Rodriguez, R.; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 13 - Marseille; Hoegh-Krohn, R.; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 13 - Marseille; Sirugue, M.; Sirugue-Collin, M.; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 13 - Marseille
1981-01-01
In section 2 we describe more carefully the generalized Poisson processes, giving a realization of the underlying probability space, and we characterize these processes by their characteristic functionals. Section 3 is devoted to the proof of the previous formula for quantum mechanical systems, with possibly velocity dependent potentials and in section 4 we give an application of the previous theory to some relativistic Bose field models. (orig.)
Group-buying inventory policy with demand under Poisson process
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tammarat Kleebmek
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The group-buying is the modern business of selling in the uncertain market. With an objective to minimize costs for sellers arising from ordering and reordering, we present in this paper the group buying inventory model, with the demand governed by a Poisson process and the product sale distributed as Binomial distribution. The inventory level is under continuous review, while the lead time is fixed. A numerical example is illustrated.
Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engelhardt, M.E.
1994-09-01
The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.
A generalized Poisson solver for first-principles device simulations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bani-Hashemian, Mohammad Hossein; VandeVondele, Joost, E-mail: joost.vandevondele@mat.ethz.ch [Nanoscale Simulations, ETH Zürich, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Brück, Sascha; Luisier, Mathieu [Integrated Systems Laboratory, ETH Zürich, 8092 Zürich (Switzerland)
2016-01-28
Electronic structure calculations of atomistic systems based on density functional theory involve solving the Poisson equation. In this paper, we present a plane-wave based algorithm for solving the generalized Poisson equation subject to periodic or homogeneous Neumann conditions on the boundaries of the simulation cell and Dirichlet type conditions imposed at arbitrary subdomains. In this way, source, drain, and gate voltages can be imposed across atomistic models of electronic devices. Dirichlet conditions are enforced as constraints in a variational framework giving rise to a saddle point problem. The resulting system of equations is then solved using a stationary iterative method in which the generalized Poisson operator is preconditioned with the standard Laplace operator. The solver can make use of any sufficiently smooth function modelling the dielectric constant, including density dependent dielectric continuum models. For all the boundary conditions, consistent derivatives are available and molecular dynamics simulations can be performed. The convergence behaviour of the scheme is investigated and its capabilities are demonstrated.
Poplová, Michaela; Sovka, Pavel; Cifra, Michal
2017-01-01
Photonic signals are broadly exploited in communication and sensing and they typically exhibit Poisson-like statistics. In a common scenario where the intensity of the photonic signals is low and one needs to remove a nonstationary trend of the signals for any further analysis, one faces an obstacle: due to the dependence between the mean and variance typical for a Poisson-like process, information about the trend remains in the variance even after the trend has been subtracted, possibly yielding artifactual results in further analyses. Commonly available detrending or normalizing methods cannot cope with this issue. To alleviate this issue we developed a suitable pre-processing method for the signals that originate from a Poisson-like process. In this paper, a Poisson pre-processing method for nonstationary time series with Poisson distribution is developed and tested on computer-generated model data and experimental data of chemiluminescence from human neutrophils and mung seeds. The presented method transforms a nonstationary Poisson signal into a stationary signal with a Poisson distribution while preserving the type of photocount distribution and phase-space structure of the signal. The importance of the suggested pre-processing method is shown in Fano factor and Hurst exponent analysis of both computer-generated model signals and experimental photonic signals. It is demonstrated that our pre-processing method is superior to standard detrending-based methods whenever further signal analysis is sensitive to variance of the signal.
Universal Poisson Statistics of mRNAs with Complex Decay Pathways.
Thattai, Mukund
2016-01-19
Messenger RNA (mRNA) dynamics in single cells are often modeled as a memoryless birth-death process with a constant probability per unit time that an mRNA molecule is synthesized or degraded. This predicts a Poisson steady-state distribution of mRNA number, in close agreement with experiments. This is surprising, since mRNA decay is known to be a complex process. The paradox is resolved by realizing that the Poisson steady state generalizes to arbitrary mRNA lifetime distributions. A mapping between mRNA dynamics and queueing theory highlights an identifiability problem: a measured Poisson steady state is consistent with a large variety of microscopic models. Here, I provide a rigorous and intuitive explanation for the universality of the Poisson steady state. I show that the mRNA birth-death process and its complex decay variants all take the form of the familiar Poisson law of rare events, under a nonlinear rescaling of time. As a corollary, not only steady-states but also transients are Poisson distributed. Deviations from the Poisson form occur only under two conditions, promoter fluctuations leading to transcriptional bursts or nonindependent degradation of mRNA molecules. These results place severe limits on the power of single-cell experiments to probe microscopic mechanisms, and they highlight the need for single-molecule measurements. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Zhong, Jie; Zhao, Honggang; Yang, Haibin; Yin, Jianfei; Wen, Jihong
2018-06-01
Rubbery coatings embedded with air cavities are commonly used on underwater structures to reduce reflection of incoming sound waves. In this paper, the relationships between Poisson's and modulus loss factors of rubbery materials are theoretically derived, the different effects of the tiny Poisson's loss factor on characterizing the loss factors of shear and longitudinal moduli are revealed. Given complex Young's modulus and dynamic Poisson's ratio, it is found that the shear loss factor has almost invisible variation with the Poisson's loss factor and is very close to the loss factor of Young's modulus, while the longitudinal loss factor almost linearly decreases with the increase of Poisson's loss factor. Then, a finite element (FE) model is used to investigate the effect of the tiny Poisson's loss factor, which is generally neglected in some FE models, on the underwater sound absorption of rubbery coatings. Results show that the tiny Poisson's loss factor has a significant effect on the sound absorption of homogeneous coatings within the concerned frequency range, while it has both frequency- and structure-dependent influence on the sound absorption of inhomogeneous coatings with embedded air cavities. Given the material parameters and cavity dimensions, more obvious effect can be observed for the rubbery coating with a larger lattice constant and/or a thicker cover layer.
Gonzales-Barron, Ursula; Zwietering, Marcel H; Butler, Francis
2013-02-01
This study proposes a novel step-wise methodology for the derivation of a sampling plan by variables for food production systems characterised by relatively low concentrations of the inspected microorganism. After representing the universe of contaminated batches by modelling the between-batch and within-batch variability in microbial counts, a tolerance criterion defining batch acceptability (i.e., up to a tolerance percentage of the food units having microbial concentrations lower or equal to a critical concentration) is established to delineate a limiting quality contour that separates satisfactory from unsatisfactory batches. The problem consists then of finding the optimum decision criterion - arithmetic mean of the analytical results (microbiological limit, m(L)) and the sample size (n) - that satisfies a pre-defined level of confidence measured on the samples' mean distributions from all possible true within-batch distributions. This is approached by obtaining decision landscape curves representing collectively the conditional and joint producer's and consumer's risks at different microbiological limits along with confidence intervals representing uncertainty due to the propagated between-batch variability. Whilst the method requires a number of risk management decisions to be made such as the objective of the sampling plan (GMP-based or risk-based), the modality of derivation, the tolerance criterion or level of safety, and the statistical level of confidence, the proposed method can be used when past monitoring data are available so as to produce statistically-sound dynamic sampling plans with optimised efficiency and discriminatory power. For the illustration of Enterobacteriaceae concentrations on Irish sheep carcasses, a sampling regime of n=10 and m(L)=17.5CFU/cm(2) is recommended to ensure that the producer has at least a 90% confidence of accepting a satisfactory batch whilst the consumer at least a 97.5% confidence that a batch will not be
Improved mesh generator for the POISSON Group Codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gupta, R.C.
1987-01-01
This paper describes the improved mesh generator of the POISSON Group Codes. These improvements enable one to have full control over the way the mesh is generated and in particular the way the mesh density is distributed throughout this model. A higher mesh density in certain regions coupled with a successively lower mesh density in others keeps the accuracy of the field computation high and the requirements on the computer time and computer memory low. The mesh is generated with the help of codes AUTOMESH and LATTICE; both have gone through a major upgrade. Modifications have also been made in the POISSON part of these codes. We shall present an example of a superconducting dipole magnet to explain how to use this code. The results of field computations are found to be reliable within a few parts in a hundred thousand even in such complex geometries
Selective Contrast Adjustment by Poisson Equation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana-Belen Petro
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Poisson Image Editing is a new technique permitting to modify the gradient vector field of an image, and then to recover an image with a gradient approaching this modified gradient field. This amounts to solve a Poisson equation, an operation which can be efficiently performed by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. This paper describes an algorithm applying this technique, with two different variants. The first variant enhances the contrast by increasing the gradient in the dark regions of the image. This method is well adapted to images with back light or strong shadows, and reveals details in the shadows. The second variant of the same Poisson technique enhances all small gradients in the image, thus also sometimes revealing details and texture.
High order Poisson Solver for unbounded flows
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hejlesen, Mads Mølholm; Rasmussen, Johannes Tophøj; Chatelain, Philippe
2015-01-01
This paper presents a high order method for solving the unbounded Poisson equation on a regular mesh using a Green’s function solution. The high order convergence was achieved by formulating mollified integration kernels, that were derived from a filter regularisation of the solution field....... The method was implemented on a rectangular domain using fast Fourier transforms (FFT) to increase computational efficiency. The Poisson solver was extended to directly solve the derivatives of the solution. This is achieved either by including the differential operator in the integration kernel...... the equations of fluid mechanics as an example, but can be used in many physical problems to solve the Poisson equation on a rectangular unbounded domain. For the two-dimensional case we propose an infinitely smooth test function which allows for arbitrary high order convergence. Using Gaussian smoothing...
Poisson-Jacobi reduction of homogeneous tensors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grabowski, J; Iglesias, D; Marrero, J C; Padron, E; Urbanski, P
2004-01-01
The notion of homogeneous tensors is discussed. We show that there is a one-to-one correspondence between multivector fields on a manifold M, homogeneous with respect to a vector field Δ on M, and first-order polydifferential operators on a closed submanifold N of codimension 1 such that Δ is transversal to N. This correspondence relates the Schouten-Nijenhuis bracket of multivector fields on M to the Schouten-Jacobi bracket of first-order polydifferential operators on N and generalizes the Poissonization of Jacobi manifolds. Actually, it can be viewed as a super-Poissonization. This procedure of passing from a homogeneous multivector field to a first-order polydifferential operator can also be understood as a sort of reduction; in the standard case-a half of a Poisson reduction. A dual version of the above correspondence yields in particular the correspondence between Δ-homogeneous symplectic structures on M and contact structures on N
The BRST complex of homological Poisson reduction
Müller-Lennert, Martin
2017-02-01
BRST complexes are differential graded Poisson algebras. They are associated with a coisotropic ideal J of a Poisson algebra P and provide a description of the Poisson algebra (P/J)^J as their cohomology in degree zero. Using the notion of stable equivalence introduced in Felder and Kazhdan (Contemporary Mathematics 610, Perspectives in representation theory, 2014), we prove that any two BRST complexes associated with the same coisotropic ideal are quasi-isomorphic in the case P = R[V] where V is a finite-dimensional symplectic vector space and the bracket on P is induced by the symplectic structure on V. As a corollary, the cohomology of the BRST complexes is canonically associated with the coisotropic ideal J in the symplectic case. We do not require any regularity assumptions on the constraints generating the ideal J. We finally quantize the BRST complex rigorously in the presence of infinitely many ghost variables and discuss the uniqueness of the quantization procedure.
Soft network materials with isotropic negative Poisson's ratios over large strains.
Liu, Jianxing; Zhang, Yihui
2018-01-31
Auxetic materials with negative Poisson's ratios have important applications across a broad range of engineering areas, such as biomedical devices, aerospace engineering and automotive engineering. A variety of design strategies have been developed to achieve artificial auxetic materials with controllable responses in the Poisson's ratio. The development of designs that can offer isotropic negative Poisson's ratios over large strains can open up new opportunities in emerging biomedical applications, which, however, remains a challenge. Here, we introduce deterministic routes to soft architected materials that can be tailored precisely to yield the values of Poisson's ratio in the range from -1 to 1, in an isotropic manner, with a tunable strain range from 0% to ∼90%. The designs rely on a network construction in a periodic lattice topology, which incorporates zigzag microstructures as building blocks to connect lattice nodes. Combined experimental and theoretical studies on broad classes of network topologies illustrate the wide-ranging utility of these concepts. Quantitative mechanics modeling under both infinitesimal and finite deformations allows the development of a rigorous design algorithm that determines the necessary network geometries to yield target Poisson ratios over desired strain ranges. Demonstrative examples in artificial skin with both the negative Poisson's ratio and the nonlinear stress-strain curve precisely matching those of the cat's skin and in unusual cylindrical structures with engineered Poisson effect and shape memory effect suggest potential applications of these network materials.
Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip
2011-10-15
Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.
The quantum poisson-Lie T-duality and mirror symmetry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkhomenko, S.E.
1999-01-01
Poisson-Lie T-duality in quantum N=2 superconformal Wess-Zumino-Novikov-Witten models is considered. The Poisson-Lie T-duality transformation rules of the super-Kac-Moody algebra currents are found from the conjecture that, as in the classical case, the quantum Poisson-Lie T-duality transformation is given by an automorphism which interchanges the isotropic subalgebras of the underlying Manin triple in one of the chirality sectors of the model. It is shown that quantum Poisson-Lie T-duality acts on the N=2 super-Virasoro algebra generators of the quantum models as a mirror symmetry acts: in one of the chirality sectors it is a trivial transformation while in another chirality sector it changes the sign of the U(1) current and interchanges the spin-3/2 currents. A generalization of Poisson-Lie T-duality for the quantum Kazama-Suzuki models is proposed. It is shown that quantum Poisson-Lie T-duality acts in these models as a mirror symmetry also
Bayesian regression of piecewise homogeneous Poisson processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Diego Sevilla
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is valuable for detecting breaking points in the count rate of time series for Poisson processes. Received: 2 November 2015, Accepted: 27 November 2015; Edited by: R. Dickman; Reviewed by: M. Hutter, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.070018 Cite as: D J R Sevilla, Papers in Physics 7, 070018 (2015
Supersymmetric quantum corrections and Poisson-Lie T-duality
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Assaoui, F.; Lhallabi, T.; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
2000-07-01
The quantum actions of the (4,4) supersymmetric non-linear sigma model and its dual in the Abelian case are constructed by using the background superfield method. The propagators of the quantum superfield and its dual and the gauge fixing actions of the original and dual (4,4) supersymmetric sigma models are determined. On the other hand, the BRST transformations are used to obtain the quantum dual action of the (4,4) supersymmetric nonlinear sigma model in the sense of Poisson-Lie T-duality. (author)
Semiclassical limit and well-posedness of nonlinear Schrodinger-Poisson systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hailiang Li
2003-09-01
Full Text Available This paper concerns the well-posedness and semiclassical limit of nonlinear Schrodinger-Poisson systems. We show the local well-posedness and the existence of semiclassical limit of the two models for initial data with Sobolev regularity, before shocks appear in the limit system. We establish the existence of a global solution and show the time-asymptotic behavior of a classical solutions of Schrodinger-Poisson system for a fixed re-scaled Planck constant.
Poisson processes and a Bessel function integral
Steutel, F.W.
1985-01-01
The probability of winning a simple game of competing Poisson processes turns out to be equal to the well-known Bessel function integral J(x, y) (cf. Y. L. Luke, Integrals of Bessel Functions, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1962). Several properties of J, some of which seem to be new, follow quite easily
Almost Poisson integration of rigid body systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Austin, M.A.; Krishnaprasad, P.S.; Li-Sheng Wang
1993-01-01
In this paper we discuss the numerical integration of Lie-Poisson systems using the mid-point rule. Since such systems result from the reduction of hamiltonian systems with symmetry by lie group actions, we also present examples of reconstruction rules for the full dynamics. A primary motivation is to preserve in the integration process, various conserved quantities of the original dynamics. A main result of this paper is an O(h 3 ) error estimate for the Lie-Poisson structure, where h is the integration step-size. We note that Lie-Poisson systems appear naturally in many areas of physical science and engineering, including theoretical mechanics of fluids and plasmas, satellite dynamics, and polarization dynamics. In the present paper we consider a series of progressively complicated examples related to rigid body systems. We also consider a dissipative example associated to a Lie-Poisson system. The behavior of the mid-point rule and an associated reconstruction rule is numerically explored. 24 refs., 9 figs
Measuring Poisson Ratios at Low Temperatures
Boozon, R. S.; Shepic, J. A.
1987-01-01
Simple extensometer ring measures bulges of specimens in compression. New method of measuring Poisson's ratio used on brittle ceramic materials at cryogenic temperatures. Extensometer ring encircles cylindrical specimen. Four strain gauges connected in fully active Wheatstone bridge self-temperature-compensating. Used at temperatures as low as liquid helium.
Easy Demonstration of the Poisson Spot
Gluck, Paul
2010-01-01
Many physics teachers have a set of slides of single, double and multiple slits to show their students the phenomena of interference and diffraction. Thomas Young's historic experiments with double slits were indeed a milestone in proving the wave nature of light. But another experiment, namely the Poisson spot, was also important historically and…
Poisson brackets for fluids and plasmas
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Morrison, P.J.
1982-01-01
Noncanonical yet Hamiltonian descriptions are presented of many of the non-dissipative field equations that govern fluids and plasmas. The dynamical variables are the usually encountered physical variables. These descriptions have the advantage that gauge conditions are absent, but at the expense of introducing peculiar Poisson brackets. Clebsch-like potential descriptions that reverse this situations are also introduced
Coherent transform, quantization, and Poisson geometry
Novikova, E; Itskov, V; Karasev, M V
1998-01-01
This volume contains three extensive articles written by Karasev and his pupils. Topics covered include the following: coherent states and irreducible representations for algebras with non-Lie permutation relations, Hamilton dynamics and quantization over stable isotropic submanifolds, and infinitesimal tensor complexes over degenerate symplectic leaves in Poisson manifolds. The articles contain many examples (including from physics) and complete proofs.
Efficient information transfer by Poisson neurons
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Košťál, Lubomír; Shinomoto, S.
2016-01-01
Roč. 13, č. 3 (2016), s. 509-520 ISSN 1547-1063 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-08066S Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : information capacity * Poisson neuron * metabolic cost * decoding error Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.035, year: 2016
Remarks on 'Poisson ratio beyond the limits of the elasticity theory'
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wojciechowski, K.W.
2002-12-01
The non-chiral, elastically isotropic model exhibits Poison ratios in the range -1 ≤ σ ≤ 1 without any molecular rotation. The centres of discs-atoms are replaced in the vertices of a perfect triangle of the side length equal to σ. The positive sign of the Lame constant λ is not necessary for the stability of an isotropic system at any dimensionality. As the upper limit for the Poisson ratio in 2D isotropic systems is 1, crystalline or polycrystalline 2D systems can be obtained having the Poisson ratio exceeding 1/2. Both the traditional theory of elasticity and the Cosserat one exclude Poisson ratios exceeding 1/2 in 3D isotropic systems. Neighter anisotropy nor rotation are necessary to obtain extreme values of the Poisson ratio (author)
Optimized thick-wall cylinders by virtue of Poisson's ratio selection
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Whitty, J.P.M.; Henderson, B.; Francis, J.; Lloyd, N.
2011-01-01
The principal stress distributions in thick-wall cylinders due to variation in the Poisson's ratio are predicted using analytical and finite element methods. Analyses of appropriate brittle and ductile failure criteria show that under the isochoric pressure conditions investigated that auextic (i.e. those possessing a negative Poisson's ratio) materials act as stress concentrators; hence they are predicted to fail before their conventional (i.e. possessing a positive Poisson's ratio) material counterparts. The key finding of the work presented shows that for constrained thick-wall cylinders the maximum tensile principal stress can vanish at a particular Poisson's ratio and aspect ratio. This phenomenon is exploited in order to present an optimized design criterion for thick-wall cylinders. Moreover, via the use of a cogent finite element model, this criterion is also shown to be applicable for the design of micro-porous materials.
A generalized Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann solver for electrostatic environments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fisicaro, G.; Goedecker, S.; Genovese, L.; Andreussi, O.; Marzari, N.
2016-01-01
The computational study of chemical reactions in complex, wet environments is critical for applications in many fields. It is often essential to study chemical reactions in the presence of applied electrochemical potentials, taking into account the non-trivial electrostatic screening coming from the solvent and the electrolytes. As a consequence, the electrostatic potential has to be found by solving the generalized Poisson and the Poisson-Boltzmann equations for neutral and ionic solutions, respectively. In the present work, solvers for both problems have been developed. A preconditioned conjugate gradient method has been implemented for the solution of the generalized Poisson equation and the linear regime of the Poisson-Boltzmann, allowing to solve iteratively the minimization problem with some ten iterations of the ordinary Poisson equation solver. In addition, a self-consistent procedure enables us to solve the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann problem. Both solvers exhibit very high accuracy and parallel efficiency and allow for the treatment of periodic, free, and slab boundary conditions. The solver has been integrated into the BigDFT and Quantum-ESPRESSO electronic-structure packages and will be released as an independent program, suitable for integration in other codes
A generalized Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann solver for electrostatic environments.
Fisicaro, G; Genovese, L; Andreussi, O; Marzari, N; Goedecker, S
2016-01-07
The computational study of chemical reactions in complex, wet environments is critical for applications in many fields. It is often essential to study chemical reactions in the presence of applied electrochemical potentials, taking into account the non-trivial electrostatic screening coming from the solvent and the electrolytes. As a consequence, the electrostatic potential has to be found by solving the generalized Poisson and the Poisson-Boltzmann equations for neutral and ionic solutions, respectively. In the present work, solvers for both problems have been developed. A preconditioned conjugate gradient method has been implemented for the solution of the generalized Poisson equation and the linear regime of the Poisson-Boltzmann, allowing to solve iteratively the minimization problem with some ten iterations of the ordinary Poisson equation solver. In addition, a self-consistent procedure enables us to solve the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann problem. Both solvers exhibit very high accuracy and parallel efficiency and allow for the treatment of periodic, free, and slab boundary conditions. The solver has been integrated into the BigDFT and Quantum-ESPRESSO electronic-structure packages and will be released as an independent program, suitable for integration in other codes.
A generalized Poisson and Poisson-Boltzmann solver for electrostatic environments
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fisicaro, G., E-mail: giuseppe.fisicaro@unibas.ch; Goedecker, S. [Department of Physics, University of Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 82, 4056 Basel (Switzerland); Genovese, L. [University of Grenoble Alpes, CEA, INAC-SP2M, L-Sim, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Andreussi, O. [Institute of Computational Science, Università della Svizzera Italiana, Via Giuseppe Buffi 13, CH-6904 Lugano (Switzerland); Theory and Simulations of Materials (THEOS) and National Centre for Computational Design and Discovery of Novel Materials (MARVEL), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Station 12, CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Marzari, N. [Theory and Simulations of Materials (THEOS) and National Centre for Computational Design and Discovery of Novel Materials (MARVEL), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Station 12, CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland)
2016-01-07
The computational study of chemical reactions in complex, wet environments is critical for applications in many fields. It is often essential to study chemical reactions in the presence of applied electrochemical potentials, taking into account the non-trivial electrostatic screening coming from the solvent and the electrolytes. As a consequence, the electrostatic potential has to be found by solving the generalized Poisson and the Poisson-Boltzmann equations for neutral and ionic solutions, respectively. In the present work, solvers for both problems have been developed. A preconditioned conjugate gradient method has been implemented for the solution of the generalized Poisson equation and the linear regime of the Poisson-Boltzmann, allowing to solve iteratively the minimization problem with some ten iterations of the ordinary Poisson equation solver. In addition, a self-consistent procedure enables us to solve the non-linear Poisson-Boltzmann problem. Both solvers exhibit very high accuracy and parallel efficiency and allow for the treatment of periodic, free, and slab boundary conditions. The solver has been integrated into the BigDFT and Quantum-ESPRESSO electronic-structure packages and will be released as an independent program, suitable for integration in other codes.
Seyoum, Awoke; Ndlovu, Principal; Zewotir, Temesgen
2016-01-01
CD4 cells are a type of white blood cells that plays a significant role in protecting humans from infectious diseases. Lack of information on associated factors on CD4 cell count reduction is an obstacle for improvement of cells in HIV positive adults. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate baseline factors that could affect initial CD4 cell count change after highly active antiretroviral therapy had been given to adult patients in North West Ethiopia. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 792 HIV positive adult patients who already started antiretroviral therapy for 1 month of therapy. A Chi square test of association was used to assess of predictor covariates on the variable of interest. Data was secondary source and modeled using generalized linear models, especially Quasi-Poisson regression. The patients' CD4 cell count changed within a month ranged from 0 to 109 cells/mm 3 with a mean of 15.9 cells/mm 3 and standard deviation 18.44 cells/mm 3 . The first month CD4 cell count change was significantly affected by poor adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy (aRR = 0.506, P value = 2e -16 ), fair adherence (aRR = 0.592, P value = 0.0120), initial CD4 cell count (aRR = 1.0212, P value = 1.54e -15 ), low household income (aRR = 0.63, P value = 0.671e -14 ), middle income (aRR = 0.74, P value = 0.629e -12 ), patients without cell phone (aRR = 0.67, P value = 0.615e -16 ), WHO stage 2 (aRR = 0.91, P value = 0.0078), WHO stage 3 (aRR = 0.91, P value = 0.0058), WHO stage 4 (0876, P value = 0.0214), age (aRR = 0.987, P value = 0.000) and weight (aRR = 1.0216, P value = 3.98e -14 ). Adherence to antiretroviral therapy, initial CD4 cell count, household income, WHO stages, age, weight and owner of cell phone played a major role for the variation of CD4 cell count in our data. Hence, we recommend a close follow-up of patients to adhere the prescribed medication for
Laplace-Laplace analysis of the fractional Poisson process
Gorenflo, Rudolf; Mainardi, Francesco
2013-01-01
We generate the fractional Poisson process by subordinating the standard Poisson process to the inverse stable subordinator. Our analysis is based on application of the Laplace transform with respect to both arguments of the evolving probability densities.
Poisson equation for weak gravitational lensing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kling, Thomas P.; Campbell, Bryan
2008-01-01
Using the Newman and Penrose [E. T. Newman and R. Penrose, J. Math. Phys. (N.Y.) 3, 566 (1962).] spin-coefficient formalism, we examine the full Bianchi identities of general relativity in the context of gravitational lensing, where the matter and space-time curvature are projected into a lens plane perpendicular to the line of sight. From one component of the Bianchi identity, we provide a rigorous, new derivation of a Poisson equation for the projected matter density where the source term involves second derivatives of the observed weak gravitational lensing shear. We also show that the other components of the Bianchi identity reveal no new results. Numerical integration of the Poisson equation in test cases shows an accurate mass map can be constructed from the combination of a ground-based, wide-field image and a Hubble Space Telescope image of the same system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unge, Rikard von
2002-01-01
We extend the path-integral formalism for Poisson-Lie T-duality to include the case of Drinfeld doubles which can be decomposed into bi-algebras in more than one way. We give the correct shift of the dilaton, correcting a mistake in the literature. We then use the fact that the six dimensional Drinfeld doubles have been classified to write down all possible conformal Poisson-Lie T-duals of three dimensional space times and we explicitly work out two duals to the constant dilaton and zero anti-symmetric tensor Bianchi type V space time and show that they satisfy the string equations of motion. This space-time was previously thought to have no duals because of the tracefulness of the structure constants. (author)
Linear odd Poisson bracket on Grassmann variables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soroka, V.A.
1999-01-01
A linear odd Poisson bracket (antibracket) realized solely in terms of Grassmann variables is suggested. It is revealed that the bracket, which corresponds to a semi-simple Lie group, has at once three Grassmann-odd nilpotent Δ-like differential operators of the first, the second and the third orders with respect to Grassmann derivatives, in contrast with the canonical odd Poisson bracket having the only Grassmann-odd nilpotent differential Δ-operator of the second order. It is shown that these Δ-like operators together with a Grassmann-odd nilpotent Casimir function of this bracket form a finite-dimensional Lie superalgebra. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)
The Fractional Poisson Process and the Inverse Stable Subordinator
Meerschaert, Mark; Nane, Erkan; Vellaisamy, P.
2011-01-01
The fractional Poisson process is a renewal process with Mittag-Leffler waiting times. Its distributions solve a time-fractional analogue of the Kolmogorov forward equation for a Poisson process. This paper shows that a traditional Poisson process, with the time variable replaced by an independent inverse stable subordinator, is also a fractional Poisson process. This result unifies the two main approaches in the stochastic theory of time-fractional diffusion equations. The equivalence extend...
Reduction of Nambu-Poisson Manifolds by Regular Distributions
Das, Apurba
2018-03-01
The version of Marsden-Ratiu reduction theorem for Nambu-Poisson manifolds by a regular distribution has been studied by Ibáñez et al. In this paper we show that the reduction is always ensured unless the distribution is zero. Next we extend the more general Falceto-Zambon Poisson reduction theorem for Nambu-Poisson manifolds. Finally, we define gauge transformations of Nambu-Poisson structures and show that these transformations commute with the reduction procedure.
Comparing two Poisson populations sequentially: an application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Halteman, E.J.
1986-01-01
Rocky Flats Plant in Golden, Colorado monitors each of its employees for radiation exposure. Excess exposure is detected by comparing the means of two Poisson populations. A sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is proposed as a replacement for the fixed sample normal approximation test. A uniformly most efficient SPRT exists, however logistics suggest using a truncated SPRT. The truncated SPRT is evaluated in detail and shown to possess large potential savings in average time spent by employees in the monitoring process
Poisson filtering of laser ranging data
Ricklefs, Randall L.; Shelus, Peter J.
1993-01-01
The filtering of data in a high noise, low signal strength environment is a situation encountered routinely in lunar laser ranging (LLR) and, to a lesser extent, in artificial satellite laser ranging (SLR). The use of Poisson statistics as one of the tools for filtering LLR data is described first in a historical context. The more recent application of this statistical technique to noisy SLR data is also described.
Degenerate odd Poisson bracket on Grassmann variables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soroka, V.A.
2000-01-01
A linear degenerate odd Poisson bracket (antibracket) realized solely on Grassmann variables is proposed. It is revealed that this bracket has at once three Grassmann-odd nilpotent Δ-like differential operators of the first, second and third orders with respect to the Grassmann derivatives. It is shown that these Δ-like operators, together with the Grassmann-odd nilpotent Casimir function of this bracket, form a finite-dimensional Lie superalgebra
Poisson/Superfish codes for personal computers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Humphries, S.
1992-01-01
The Poisson/Superfish codes calculate static E or B fields in two-dimensions and electromagnetic fields in resonant structures. New versions for 386/486 PCs and Macintosh computers have capabilities that exceed the mainframe versions. Notable improvements are interactive graphical post-processors, improved field calculation routines, and a new program for charged particle orbit tracking. (author). 4 refs., 1 tab., figs
Computation of solar perturbations with Poisson series
Broucke, R.
1974-01-01
Description of a project for computing first-order perturbations of natural or artificial satellites by integrating the equations of motion on a computer with automatic Poisson series expansions. A basic feature of the method of solution is that the classical variation-of-parameters formulation is used rather than rectangular coordinates. However, the variation-of-parameters formulation uses the three rectangular components of the disturbing force rather than the classical disturbing function, so that there is no problem in expanding the disturbing function in series. Another characteristic of the variation-of-parameters formulation employed is that six rather unusual variables are used in order to avoid singularities at the zero eccentricity and zero (or 90 deg) inclination. The integration process starts by assuming that all the orbit elements present on the right-hand sides of the equations of motion are constants. These right-hand sides are then simple Poisson series which can be obtained with the use of the Bessel expansions of the two-body problem in conjunction with certain interation methods. These Poisson series can then be integrated term by term, and a first-order solution is obtained.
Alternative Forms of Compound Fractional Poisson Processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luisa Beghin
2012-01-01
Full Text Available We study here different fractional versions of the compound Poisson process. The fractionality is introduced in the counting process representing the number of jumps as well as in the density of the jumps themselves. The corresponding distributions are obtained explicitly and proved to be solution of fractional equations of order less than one. Only in the final case treated in this paper, where the number of jumps is given by the fractional-difference Poisson process defined in Orsingher and Polito (2012, we have a fractional driving equation, with respect to the time argument, with order greater than one. Moreover, in this case, the compound Poisson process is Markovian and this is also true for the corresponding limiting process. All the processes considered here are proved to be compositions of continuous time random walks with stable processes (or inverse stable subordinators. These subordinating relationships hold, not only in the limit, but also in the finite domain. In some cases the densities satisfy master equations which are the fractional analogues of the well-known Kolmogorov one.
Exterior differentials in superspace and Poisson brackets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soroka, Dmitrij V.; Soroka, Vyacheslav A.
2003-01-01
It is shown that two definitions for an exterior differential in superspace, giving the same exterior calculus, yet lead to different results when applied to the Poisson bracket. A prescription for the transition with the help of these exterior differentials from the given Poisson bracket of definite Grassmann parity to another bracket is introduced. It is also indicated that the resulting bracket leads to generalization of the Schouten-Nijenhuis bracket for the cases of superspace and brackets of diverse Grassmann parities. It is shown that in the case of the Grassmann-odd exterior differential the resulting bracket is the bracket given on exterior forms. The above-mentioned transition with the use of the odd exterior differential applied to the linear even/odd Poisson brackets, that correspond to semi-simple Lie groups, results, respectively, in also linear odd/even brackets which are naturally connected with the Lie superalgebra. The latter contains the BRST and anti-BRST charges and can be used for calculation of the BRST operator cogomology. (author)
A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions
Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.
1982-01-01
One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.
Team behaviour analysis in sports using the poisson equation
Direkoglu, Cem; O'Connor, Noel E.
2012-01-01
We propose a novel physics-based model for analysing team play- ers’ positions and movements on a sports playing field. The goal is to detect for each frame the region with the highest population of a given team’s players and the region towards which the team is moving as they press for territorial advancement, termed the region of intent. Given the positions of team players from a plan view of the playing field at any given time, we solve a particular Poisson equation to generate a smooth di...
Large Time Behavior of the Vlasov-Poisson-Boltzmann System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The motion of dilute charged particles can be modeled by Vlasov-Poisson-Boltzmann system. We study the large time stability of the VPB system. To be precise, we prove that when time goes to infinity, the solution of VPB system tends to global Maxwellian state in a rate Ot−∞, by using a method developed for Boltzmann equation without force in the work of Desvillettes and Villani (2005. The improvement of the present paper is the removal of condition on parameter λ as in the work of Li (2008.
Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. S. Sparks
2009-01-01
adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA plan is developed for signalling unusually high incidence when monitoring a time series of nonhomogeneous daily disease counts. A Poisson transitional regression model is used to fit background/expected trend in counts and provides “one-day-ahead” forecasts of the next day's count. Departures of counts from their forecasts are monitored. The paper outlines an approach for improving early outbreak data signals by dynamically adjusting the exponential weights to be efficient at signalling local persistent high side changes. We emphasise outbreak signals in steady-state situations; that is, changes that occur after the EWMA statistic had run through several in-control counts.
Duality and modular class of a Nambu-Poisson structure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ibanez, R.; Leon, M. de; Lopez, B.; Marrero, J.C.; Padron, E.
2001-01-01
In this paper we introduce cohomology and homology theories for Nambu-Poisson manifolds. Also we study the relation between the existence of a duality for these theories and the vanishing of a particular Nambu-Poisson cohomology class, the modular class. The case of a regular Nambu-Poisson structure and some singular examples are discussed. (author)
Compositions, Random Sums and Continued Random Fractions of Poisson and Fractional Poisson Processes
Orsingher, Enzo; Polito, Federico
2012-08-01
In this paper we consider the relation between random sums and compositions of different processes. In particular, for independent Poisson processes N α ( t), N β ( t), t>0, we have that N_{α}(N_{β}(t)) stackrel{d}{=} sum_{j=1}^{N_{β}(t)} Xj, where the X j s are Poisson random variables. We present a series of similar cases, where the outer process is Poisson with different inner processes. We highlight generalisations of these results where the external process is infinitely divisible. A section of the paper concerns compositions of the form N_{α}(tauk^{ν}), ν∈(0,1], where tauk^{ν} is the inverse of the fractional Poisson process, and we show how these compositions can be represented as random sums. Furthermore we study compositions of the form Θ( N( t)), t>0, which can be represented as random products. The last section is devoted to studying continued fractions of Cauchy random variables with a Poisson number of levels. We evaluate the exact distribution and derive the scale parameter in terms of ratios of Fibonacci numbers.
On the fractal characterization of Paretian Poisson processes
Eliazar, Iddo I.; Sokolov, Igor M.
2012-06-01
Paretian Poisson processes are Poisson processes which are defined on the positive half-line, have maximal points, and are quantified by power-law intensities. Paretian Poisson processes are elemental in statistical physics, and are the bedrock of a host of power-law statistics ranging from Pareto's law to anomalous diffusion. In this paper we establish evenness-based fractal characterizations of Paretian Poisson processes. Considering an array of socioeconomic evenness-based measures of statistical heterogeneity, we show that: amongst the realm of Poisson processes which are defined on the positive half-line, and have maximal points, Paretian Poisson processes are the unique class of 'fractal processes' exhibiting scale-invariance. The results established in this paper are diametric to previous results asserting that the scale-invariance of Poisson processes-with respect to physical randomness-based measures of statistical heterogeneity-is characterized by exponential Poissonian intensities.
The transverse Poisson's ratio of composites.
Foye, R. L.
1972-01-01
An expression is developed that makes possible the prediction of Poisson's ratio for unidirectional composites with reference to any pair of orthogonal axes that are normal to the direction of the reinforcing fibers. This prediction appears to be a reasonable one in that it follows the trends of the finite element analysis and the bounding estimates, and has the correct limiting value for zero fiber content. It can only be expected to apply to composites containing stiff, circular, isotropic fibers bonded to a soft matrix material.
Risk Sensitive Filtering with Poisson Process Observations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Malcolm, W. P.; James, M. R.; Elliott, R. J.
2000-01-01
In this paper we consider risk sensitive filtering for Poisson process observations. Risk sensitive filtering is a type of robust filtering which offers performance benefits in the presence of uncertainties. We derive a risk sensitive filter for a stochastic system where the signal variable has dynamics described by a diffusion equation and determines the rate function for an observation process. The filtering equations are stochastic integral equations. Computer simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance gain for the risk sensitive filter compared with the risk neutral filter
Moments analysis of concurrent Poisson processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McBeth, G.W.; Cross, P.
1975-01-01
A moments analysis of concurrent Poisson processes has been carried out. Equations are given which relate combinations of distribution moments to sums of products involving the number of counts associated with the processes and the mean rate of the processes. Elimination of background is discussed and equations suitable for processing random radiation, parent-daughter pairs in the presence of background, and triple and double correlations in the presence of background are given. The theory of identification of the four principle radioactive series by moments analysis is discussed. (Auth.)
Cappell, M S; Spray, D C; Bennett, M V
1988-06-28
Protractor muscles in the gastropod mollusc Navanax inermis exhibit typical spontaneous miniature end plate potentials with mean amplitude 1.71 +/- 1.19 (standard deviation) mV. The evoked end plate potential is quantized, with a quantum equal to the miniature end plate potential amplitude. When their rate is stationary, occurrence of miniature end plate potentials is a random, Poisson process. When non-stationary, spontaneous miniature end plate potential occurrence is a non-stationary Poisson process, a Poisson process with the mean frequency changing with time. This extends the random Poisson model for miniature end plate potentials to the frequently observed non-stationary occurrence. Reported deviations from a Poisson process can sometimes be accounted for by the non-stationary Poisson process and more complex models, such as clustered release, are not always needed.
Tatlier, Mehmet Seha
Random fibrous can be found among natural and synthetic materials. Some of these random fibrous networks possess negative Poisson's ratio and they are extensively called auxetic materials. The governing mechanisms behind this counter intuitive property in random networks are yet to be understood and this kind of auxetic material remains widely under-explored. However, most of synthetic auxetic materials suffer from their low strength. This shortcoming can be rectified by developing high strength auxetic composites. The process of embedding auxetic random fibrous networks in a polymer matrix is an attractive alternate route to the manufacture of auxetic composites, however before such an approach can be developed, a methodology for designing fibrous networks with the desired negative Poisson's ratios must first be established. This requires an understanding of the factors which bring about negative Poisson's ratios in these materials. In this study, a numerical model is presented in order to investigate the auxetic behavior in compressed random fiber networks. Finite element analyses of three-dimensional stochastic fiber networks were performed to gain insight into the effects of parameters such as network anisotropy, network density, and degree of network compression on the out-of-plane Poisson's ratio and Young's modulus. The simulation results suggest that the compression is the critical parameter that gives rise to negative Poisson's ratio while anisotropy significantly promotes the auxetic behavior. This model can be utilized to design fibrous auxetic materials and to evaluate feasibility of developing auxetic composites by using auxetic fibrous networks as the reinforcing layer.
Random walk in dynamically disordered chains: Poisson white noise disorder
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez-Garcia, E.; Pesquera, L.; Rodriguez, M.A.; San Miguel, M.
1989-01-01
Exact solutions are given for a variety of models of random walks in a chain with time-dependent disorder. Dynamic disorder is modeled by white Poisson noise. Models with site-independent (global) and site-dependent (local) disorder are considered. Results are described in terms of an affective random walk in a nondisordered medium. In the cases of global disorder the effective random walk contains multistep transitions, so that the continuous limit is not a diffusion process. In the cases of local disorder the effective process is equivalent to usual random walk in the absence of disorder but with slower diffusion. Difficulties associated with the continuous-limit representation of random walk in a disordered chain are discussed. In particular, the authors consider explicit cases in which taking the continuous limit and averaging over disorder sources do not commute
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Gussmann, Maya Katrin
2017-01-01
the transmission rate. We use data from the two simulation models and vary the sampling intervals and the size of the population sampled. We devise two new methods to determine transmission rate, and compare these to the frequently used Poisson regression method in both epidemic and endemic situations. For most...... tested scenarios these new methods perform similar or better than Poisson regression, especially in the case of long sampling intervals. We conclude that transmission rate estimates are easily biased, which is important to take into account when using these rates in simulation models....
Renewal characterization of Markov modulated Poisson processes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marcel F. Neuts
1989-01-01
Full Text Available A Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP M(t defined on a Markov chain J(t is a pure jump process where jumps of M(t occur according to a Poisson process with intensity λi whenever the Markov chain J(t is in state i. M(t is called strongly renewal (SR if M(t is a renewal process for an arbitrary initial probability vector of J(t with full support on P={i:λi>0}. M(t is called weakly renewal (WR if there exists an initial probability vector of J(t such that the resulting MMPP is a renewal process. The purpose of this paper is to develop general characterization theorems for the class SR and some sufficiency theorems for the class WR in terms of the first passage times of the bivariate Markov chain [J(t,M(t]. Relevance to the lumpability of J(t is also studied.
Binomial vs poisson statistics in radiation studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foster, J.; Kouris, K.; Spyrou, N.M.; Matthews, I.P.; Welsh National School of Medicine, Cardiff
1983-01-01
The processes of radioactive decay, decay and growth of radioactive species in a radioactive chain, prompt emission(s) from nuclear reactions, conventional activation and cyclic activation are discussed with respect to their underlying statistical density function. By considering the transformation(s) that each nucleus may undergo it is shown that all these processes are fundamentally binomial. Formally, when the number of experiments N is large and the probability of success p is close to zero, the binomial is closely approximated by the Poisson density function. In radiation and nuclear physics, N is always large: each experiment can be conceived of as the observation of the fate of each of the N nuclei initially present. Whether p, the probability that a given nucleus undergoes a prescribed transformation, is close to zero depends on the process and nuclide(s) concerned. Hence, although a binomial description is always valid, the Poisson approximation is not always adequate. Therefore further clarification is provided as to when the binomial distribution must be used in the statistical treatment of detected events. (orig.)
Stationary response of multi-degree-of-freedom vibro-impact systems to Poisson white noises
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Y.; Zhu, W.Q.
2008-01-01
The stationary response of multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) vibro-impact (VI) systems to random pulse trains is studied. The system is formulated as a stochastically excited and dissipated Hamiltonian system. The constraints are modeled as non-linear springs according to the Hertz contact law. The random pulse trains are modeled as Poisson white noises. The approximate stationary probability density function (PDF) for the response of MDOF dissipated Hamiltonian systems to Poisson white noises is obtained by solving the fourth-order generalized Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation using perturbation approach. As examples, two-degree-of-freedom (2DOF) VI systems under external and parametric Poisson white noise excitations, respectively, are investigated. The validity of the proposed approach is confirmed by using the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that the non-Gaussian behaviour depends on the product of the mean arrival rate of the impulses and the relaxation time of the oscillator
A non-parametric estimator for the doubly-periodic Poisson intensity function
R. Helmers (Roelof); I.W. Mangku (Wayan); R. Zitikis
2007-01-01
textabstractIn a series of papers, J. Garrido and Y. Lu have proposed and investigated a doubly-periodic Poisson model, and then applied it to analyze hurricane data. The authors have suggested several parametric models for the underlying intensity function. In the present paper we construct and
Use of the negative binomial-truncated Poisson distribution in thunderstorm prediction
Cohen, A. C.
1971-01-01
A probability model is presented for the distribution of thunderstorms over a small area given that thunderstorm events (1 or more thunderstorms) are occurring over a larger area. The model incorporates the negative binomial and truncated Poisson distributions. Probability tables for Cape Kennedy for spring, summer, and fall months and seasons are presented. The computer program used to compute these probabilities is appended.
Hadayeghi, Alireza; Shalaby, Amer S; Persaud, Bhagwant N
2010-03-01
A common technique used for the calibration of collision prediction models is the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) procedure with the assumption of Negative Binomial or Poisson error distribution. In this technique, fixed coefficients that represent the average relationship between the dependent variable and each explanatory variable are estimated. However, the stationary relationship assumed may hide some important spatial factors of the number of collisions at a particular traffic analysis zone. Consequently, the accuracy of such models for explaining the relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variables may be suspected since collision frequency is likely influenced by many spatially defined factors such as land use, demographic characteristics, and traffic volume patterns. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the spatial variations in the relationship between the number of zonal collisions and potential transportation planning predictors, using the Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression modeling technique. The secondary objective is to build on knowledge comparing the accuracy of Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression models to that of Generalized Linear Models. The results show that the Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression models are useful for capturing spatially dependent relationships and generally perform better than the conventional Generalized Linear Models. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes.
Suweis, Samir; Porporato, Amilcare; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos
2011-06-01
Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data.
Prescription-induced jump distributions in multiplicative Poisson processes
Suweis, Samir; Porporato, Amilcare; Rinaldo, Andrea; Maritan, Amos
2011-06-01
Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data.
Image deblurring with Poisson data: from cells to galaxies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bertero, M; Boccacci, P; Desiderà, G; Vicidomini, G
2009-01-01
Image deblurring is an important topic in imaging science. In this review, we consider together fluorescence microscopy and optical/infrared astronomy because of two common features: in both cases the imaging system can be described, with a sufficiently good approximation, by a convolution operator, whose kernel is the so-called point-spread function (PSF); moreover, the data are affected by photon noise, described by a Poisson process. This statistical property of the noise, that is common also to emission tomography, is the basis of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches introduced in the mid eighties. From then on, a huge amount of literature has been produced on these topics. This review is a tutorial and a review of a relevant part of this literature, including some of our previous contributions. We discuss the mathematical modeling of the process of image formation and detection, and we introduce the so-called Bayesian paradigm that provides the basis of the statistical treatment of the problem. Next, we describe and discuss the most frequently used algorithms as well as other approaches based on a different description of the Poisson noise. We conclude with a review of other topics related to image deblurring such as boundary effect correction, space-variant PSFs, super-resolution, blind deconvolution and multiple-image deconvolution. (topical review)
On a perturbed Sparre Andersen risk model with multi-layer dividend strategy
Yang, Hu; Zhang, Zhimin
2009-10-01
In this paper, we consider a perturbed Sparre Andersen risk model, in which the inter-claim times are generalized Erlang(n) distributed. Under the multi-layer dividend strategy, piece-wise integro-differential equations for the discounted penalty functions are derived, and a recursive approach is applied to express the solutions. A numerical example to calculate the ruin probabilities is given to illustrate the solution procedure.
On a Poisson homogeneous space of bilinear forms with a Poisson-Lie action
Chekhov, L. O.; Mazzocco, M.
2017-12-01
Let \\mathscr A be the space of bilinear forms on C^N with defining matrices A endowed with a quadratic Poisson structure of reflection equation type. The paper begins with a short description of previous studies of the structure, and then this structure is extended to systems of bilinear forms whose dynamics is governed by the natural action A\\mapsto B ABT} of the {GL}_N Poisson-Lie group on \\mathscr A. A classification is given of all possible quadratic brackets on (B, A)\\in {GL}_N× \\mathscr A preserving the Poisson property of the action, thus endowing \\mathscr A with the structure of a Poisson homogeneous space. Besides the product Poisson structure on {GL}_N× \\mathscr A, there are two other (mutually dual) structures, which (unlike the product Poisson structure) admit reductions by the Dirac procedure to a space of bilinear forms with block upper triangular defining matrices. Further generalisations of this construction are considered, to triples (B,C, A)\\in {GL}_N× {GL}_N× \\mathscr A with the Poisson action A\\mapsto B ACT}, and it is shown that \\mathscr A then acquires the structure of a Poisson symmetric space. Generalisations to chains of transformations and to the quantum and quantum affine algebras are investigated, as well as the relations between constructions of Poisson symmetric spaces and the Poisson groupoid. Bibliography: 30 titles.
On the Magnetic Shield for a Vlasov-Poisson Plasma
Caprino, Silvia; Cavallaro, Guido; Marchioro, Carlo
2017-12-01
We study the screening of a bounded body Γ against the effect of a wind of charged particles, by means of a shield produced by a magnetic field which becomes infinite on the border of Γ . The charged wind is modeled by a Vlasov-Poisson plasma, the bounded body by a torus, and the external magnetic field is taken close to the border of Γ . We study two models: a plasma composed by different species with positive or negative charges, and finite total mass of each species, and another made of many species of the same sign, each having infinite mass. We investigate the time evolution of both systems, showing in particular that the plasma particles cannot reach the body. Finally we discuss possible extensions to more general initial data. We show also that when the magnetic lines are straight lines, (that imposes an unbounded body), the previous results can be improved.
A Method of Poisson's Ration Imaging Within a Material Part
Roth, Don J. (Inventor)
1994-01-01
The present invention is directed to a method of displaying the Poisson's ratio image of a material part. In the present invention, longitudinal data is produced using a longitudinal wave transducer and shear wave data is produced using a shear wave transducer. The respective data is then used to calculate the Poisson's ratio for the entire material part. The Poisson's ratio approximations are then used to display the data.
Method of Poisson's ratio imaging within a material part
Roth, Don J. (Inventor)
1996-01-01
The present invention is directed to a method of displaying the Poisson's ratio image of a material part. In the present invention longitudinal data is produced using a longitudinal wave transducer and shear wave data is produced using a shear wave transducer. The respective data is then used to calculate the Poisson's ratio for the entire material part. The Poisson's ratio approximations are then used to displayed the image.
Compound Poisson Approximations for Sums of Random Variables
Serfozo, Richard F.
1986-01-01
We show that a sum of dependent random variables is approximately compound Poisson when the variables are rarely nonzero and, given they are nonzero, their conditional distributions are nearly identical. We give several upper bounds on the total-variation distance between the distribution of such a sum and a compound Poisson distribution. Included is an example for Markovian occurrences of a rare event. Our bounds are consistent with those that are known for Poisson approximations for sums of...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zheng, Y P; Choi, A P C; Ling, H Y; Huang, Y P
2009-01-01
Indentation is commonly used to determine the mechanical properties of different kinds of biological tissues and engineering materials. With the force–deformation data obtained from an indentation test, Young's modulus of the tissue can be calculated using a linear elastic indentation model with a known Poisson's ratio. A novel method for simultaneous estimation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the tissue using a single indentation was proposed in this study. Finite element (FE) analysis using 3D models was first used to establish the relationship between Poisson's ratio and the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness for different aspect ratios (indentor radius/tissue original thickness) in the indentation test. From the FE results, it was found that the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness linearly increased with the deformation. Poisson's ratio could be extracted based on the deformation-dependent indentation stiffness obtained from the force–deformation data. Young's modulus was then further calculated with the estimated Poisson's ratio. The feasibility of this method was demonstrated in virtue of using the indentation models with different material properties in the FE analysis. The numerical results showed that the percentage errors of the estimated Poisson's ratios and the corresponding Young's moduli ranged from −1.7% to −3.2% and 3.0% to 7.2%, respectively, with the aspect ratio (indentor radius/tissue thickness) larger than 1. It is expected that this novel method can be potentially used for quantitative assessment of various kinds of engineering materials and biological tissues, such as articular cartilage
Cao, Qingqing; Wu, Zhenqiang; Sun, Ying; Wang, Tiezhu; Han, Tengwei; Gu, Chaomei; Sun, Yehuan
2011-11-01
To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency. 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire. The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model. The risk factors incurring the increase of unintentional injury frequency for juvenile students was explored, so as to probe the efficiency of these two models in studying the influential factors for injury frequency. The Poisson model existed over-dispersion (P Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model, was fitted better. respectively. Both showed that male gender, younger age, father working outside of the hometown, the level of the guardian being above junior high school and smoking might be the results of higher injury frequencies. On a tendency of clustered frequency data on injury event, both the modified Poisson regression analysis and negative binomial regression analysis can be used. However, based on our data, the modified Poisson regression fitted better and this model could give a more accurate interpretation of relevant factors affecting the frequency of injury.
Semi-Poisson statistics in quantum chaos.
García-García, Antonio M; Wang, Jiao
2006-03-01
We investigate the quantum properties of a nonrandom Hamiltonian with a steplike singularity. It is shown that the eigenfunctions are multifractals and, in a certain range of parameters, the level statistics is described exactly by semi-Poisson statistics (SP) typical of pseudointegrable systems. It is also shown that our results are universal, namely, they depend exclusively on the presence of the steplike singularity and are not modified by smooth perturbations of the potential or the addition of a magnetic flux. Although the quantum properties of our system are similar to those of a disordered conductor at the Anderson transition, we report important quantitative differences in both the level statistics and the multifractal dimensions controlling the transition. Finally, the study of quantum transport properties suggests that the classical singularity induces quantum anomalous diffusion. We discuss how these findings may be experimentally corroborated by using ultracold atoms techniques.
Periodic Poisson Solver for Particle Tracking
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dohlus, M.; Henning, C.
2015-05-01
A method is described to solve the Poisson problem for a three dimensional source distribution that is periodic into one direction. Perpendicular to the direction of periodicity a free space (or open) boundary is realized. In beam physics, this approach allows to calculate the space charge field of a continualized charged particle distribution with periodic pattern. The method is based on a particle mesh approach with equidistant grid and fast convolution with a Green's function. The periodic approach uses only one period of the source distribution, but a periodic extension of the Green's function. The approach is numerically efficient and allows the investigation of periodic- and pseudo-periodic structures with period lengths that are small compared to the source dimensions, for instance of laser modulated beams or of the evolution of micro bunch structures. Applications for laser modulated beams are given.
Nonlinear poisson brackets geometry and quantization
Karasev, M V
2012-01-01
This book deals with two old mathematical problems. The first is the problem of constructing an analog of a Lie group for general nonlinear Poisson brackets. The second is the quantization problem for such brackets in the semiclassical approximation (which is the problem of exact quantization for the simplest classes of brackets). These problems are progressively coming to the fore in the modern theory of differential equations and quantum theory, since the approach based on constructions of algebras and Lie groups seems, in a certain sense, to be exhausted. The authors' main goal is to describe in detail the new objects that appear in the solution of these problems. Many ideas of algebra, modern differential geometry, algebraic topology, and operator theory are synthesized here. The authors prove all statements in detail, thus making the book accessible to graduate students.
A test for judging the presence of additional scatter in a Poisson process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mueller, J.W.
1978-01-01
The effect of additional scatter on a Poisson process is studied. Possible causes for such fluctuations are insufficient stability of the detection efficiency or of the associated electronics. It is shown with a simple model that the presence of fluctuations results in a characteristic broadening of the counting distribution. Comparison of the observed distribution with the one expected for a Poisson process with the same mean value will show three different regions, each with predictable sign of the deviation; the presence of scatter can thus be decided upon by a sign test. Experimental results are in excellent agreement with this expectation
Measurements of the Poisson ratio and fragility of glass-forming liquids
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Tage Emil; Olsen, Niels Boye
Recently much attention has been given to models and phenomenology of glass-forming liquids that correlates fast and slow degrees of freedom . In particular the Poisson ratio has been correlated with fragility. We present data on shear - and bulk modulus obtained by the techniques...... of the piezoelectric transducers PBG and PSG on a number of glass-forming liquids. Hereby the Poisson ratio can be found. Furthermore the PSG also gives the temperature dependence of shear viscosity and thereby the fragility. The validity of the conjectured relation is discussed...
Detecting overdispersion in count data: A zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis
Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Siti; Asrul Affendi Abdullah, M.; Kek, Sie Long; Nor, Maria Elena; Mohamed, Maryati; Ismail, Norradihah
2017-09-01
This study focusing on analysing count data of butterflies communities in Jasin, Melaka. In analysing count dependent variable, the Poisson regression model has been known as a benchmark model for regression analysis. Continuing from the previous literature that used Poisson regression analysis, this study comprising the used of zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression analysis to gain acute precision on analysing the count data of butterfly communities in Jasin, Melaka. On the other hands, Poisson regression should be abandoned in the favour of count data models, which are capable of taking into account the extra zeros explicitly. By far, one of the most popular models include ZIP regression model. The data of butterfly communities which had been called as the number of subjects in this study had been taken in Jasin, Melaka and consisted of 131 number of subjects visits Jasin, Melaka. Since the researchers are considering the number of subjects, this data set consists of five families of butterfly and represent the five variables involve in the analysis which are the types of subjects. Besides, the analysis of ZIP used the SAS procedure of overdispersion in analysing zeros value and the main purpose of continuing the previous study is to compare which models would be better than when exists zero values for the observation of the count data. The analysis used AIC, BIC and Voung test of 5% level significance in order to achieve the objectives. The finding indicates that there is a presence of over-dispersion in analysing zero value. The ZIP regression model is better than Poisson regression model when zero values exist.
Poisson-Boltzmann versus Size-Modified Poisson-Boltzmann Electrostatics Applied to Lipid Bilayers.
Wang, Nuo; Zhou, Shenggao; Kekenes-Huskey, Peter M; Li, Bo; McCammon, J Andrew
2014-12-26
Mean-field methods, such as the Poisson-Boltzmann equation (PBE), are often used to calculate the electrostatic properties of molecular systems. In the past two decades, an enhancement of the PBE, the size-modified Poisson-Boltzmann equation (SMPBE), has been reported. Here, the PBE and the SMPBE are reevaluated for realistic molecular systems, namely, lipid bilayers, under eight different sets of input parameters. The SMPBE appears to reproduce the molecular dynamics simulation results better than the PBE only under specific parameter sets, but in general, it performs no better than the Stern layer correction of the PBE. These results emphasize the need for careful discussions of the accuracy of mean-field calculations on realistic systems with respect to the choice of parameters and call for reconsideration of the cost-efficiency and the significance of the current SMPBE formulation.
A spatial scan statistic for compound Poisson data.
Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Chang, Hsing-Ming
2013-12-20
The topic of spatial cluster detection gained attention in statistics during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Effort has been devoted to the development of methods for detecting spatial clustering of cases and events in the biological sciences, astronomy and epidemiology. More recently, research has examined detecting clusters of correlated count data associated with health conditions of individuals. Such a method allows researchers to examine spatial relationships of disease-related events rather than just incident or prevalent cases. We introduce a spatial scan test that identifies clusters of events in a study region. Because an individual case may have multiple (repeated) events, we base the test on a compound Poisson model. We illustrate our method for cluster detection on emergency department visits, where individuals may make multiple disease-related visits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Updating a Classic: "The Poisson Distribution and the Supreme Court" Revisited
Cole, Julio H.
2010-01-01
W. A. Wallis studied vacancies in the US Supreme Court over a 96-year period (1837-1932) and found that the distribution of the number of vacancies per year could be characterized by a Poisson model. This note updates this classic study.
The Analysis of Corporate Bond Valuation under an Infinite Dimensional Compound Poisson Framework
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sheng Fan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper analyzes the firm bond valuation and credit spread with an endogenous model for the pure default and callable default corporate bond. Regarding the stochastic instantaneous forward rates and the firm value as an infinite dimensional Poisson process, we provide some analytical results for the embedded American options and firm bond valuations.
Radio pulsar glitches as a state-dependent Poisson process
Fulgenzi, W.; Melatos, A.; Hughes, B. D.
2017-10-01
Gross-Pitaevskii simulations of vortex avalanches in a neutron star superfluid are limited computationally to ≲102 vortices and ≲102 avalanches, making it hard to study the long-term statistics of radio pulsar glitches in realistically sized systems. Here, an idealized, mean-field model of the observed Gross-Pitaevskii dynamics is presented, in which vortex unpinning is approximated as a state-dependent, compound Poisson process in a single random variable, the spatially averaged crust-superfluid lag. Both the lag-dependent Poisson rate and the conditional distribution of avalanche-driven lag decrements are inputs into the model, which is solved numerically (via Monte Carlo simulations) and analytically (via a master equation). The output statistics are controlled by two dimensionless free parameters: α, the glitch rate at a reference lag, multiplied by the critical lag for unpinning, divided by the spin-down rate; and β, the minimum fraction of the lag that can be restored by a glitch. The system evolves naturally to a self-regulated stationary state, whose properties are determined by α/αc(β), where αc(β) ≈ β-1/2 is a transition value. In the regime α ≳ αc(β), one recovers qualitatively the power-law size and exponential waiting-time distributions observed in many radio pulsars and Gross-Pitaevskii simulations. For α ≪ αc(β), the size and waiting-time distributions are both power-law-like, and a correlation emerges between size and waiting time until the next glitch, contrary to what is observed in most pulsars. Comparisons with astrophysical data are restricted by the small sample sizes available at present, with ≤35 events observed per pulsar.
Formulation of Hamiltonian mechanics with even and odd Poisson brackets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khudaverdyan, O.M.; Nersesyan, A.P.
1987-01-01
A possibility is studied as to constrict the odd Poisson bracket and odd Hamiltonian by the given dynamics in phase superspace - the even Poisson bracket and even Hamiltonian so the transition to the new structure does not change the equations of motion. 9 refs
Quantum algebras and Poisson geometry in mathematical physics
Karasev, M V
2005-01-01
This collection presents new and interesting applications of Poisson geometry to some fundamental well-known problems in mathematical physics. The methods used by the authors include, in addition to advanced Poisson geometry, unexpected algebras with non-Lie commutation relations, nontrivial (quantum) Kählerian structures of hypergeometric type, dynamical systems theory, semiclassical asymptotics, etc.
Cluster X-varieties, amalgamation, and Poisson-Lie groups
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fock, V. V.; Goncharov, A. B.
2006-01-01
In this paper, starting from a split semisimple real Lie group G with trivial center, we define a family of varieties with additional structures. We describe them as cluster χ-varieties, as defined in [FG2]. In particular they are Poisson varieties. We define canonical Poisson maps of these varie...
Poisson cohomology of scalar multidimensional Dubrovin-Novikov brackets
Carlet, Guido; Casati, Matteo; Shadrin, Sergey
2017-04-01
We compute the Poisson cohomology of a scalar Poisson bracket of Dubrovin-Novikov type with D independent variables. We find that the second and third cohomology groups are generically non-vanishing in D > 1. Hence, in contrast with the D = 1 case, the deformation theory in the multivariable case is non-trivial.
Avoiding negative populations in explicit Poisson tau-leaping.
Cao, Yang; Gillespie, Daniel T; Petzold, Linda R
2005-08-01
The explicit tau-leaping procedure attempts to speed up the stochastic simulation of a chemically reacting system by approximating the number of firings of each reaction channel during a chosen time increment tau as a Poisson random variable. Since the Poisson random variable can have arbitrarily large sample values, there is always the possibility that this procedure will cause one or more reaction channels to fire so many times during tau that the population of some reactant species will be driven negative. Two recent papers have shown how that unacceptable occurrence can be avoided by replacing the Poisson random variables with binomial random variables, whose values are naturally bounded. This paper describes a modified Poisson tau-leaping procedure that also avoids negative populations, but is easier to implement than the binomial procedure. The new Poisson procedure also introduces a second control parameter, whose value essentially dials the procedure from the original Poisson tau-leaping at one extreme to the exact stochastic simulation algorithm at the other; therefore, the modified Poisson procedure will generally be more accurate than the original Poisson procedure.
Unimodularity criteria for Poisson structures on foliated manifolds
Pedroza, Andrés; Velasco-Barreras, Eduardo; Vorobiev, Yury
2018-03-01
We study the behavior of the modular class of an orientable Poisson manifold and formulate some unimodularity criteria in the semilocal context, around a (singular) symplectic leaf. Our results generalize some known unimodularity criteria for regular Poisson manifolds related to the notion of the Reeb class. In particular, we show that the unimodularity of the transverse Poisson structure of the leaf is a necessary condition for the semilocal unimodular property. Our main tool is an explicit formula for a bigraded decomposition of modular vector fields of a coupling Poisson structure on a foliated manifold. Moreover, we also exploit the notion of the modular class of a Poisson foliation and its relationship with the Reeb class.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Feireisl, Eduard; Laurençot, P.
2007-01-01
Roč. 88, - (2007), s. 325-349 ISSN 0021-7824 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/05/0164 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : Navier-Stokes-Fourier- Poisson system * Smoluchowski- Poisson system * singular limit Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.118, year: 2007
Test of Poisson Process for Earthquakes in and around Korea
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Noh, Myunghyun; Choi, Hoseon
2015-01-01
Since Cornell's work on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (hereafter, PSHA), majority of PSHA computer codes are assuming that the earthquake occurrence is Poissonian. To the author's knowledge, it is uncertain who first opened the issue of the Poisson process for the earthquake occurrence. The systematic PSHA in Korea, led by the nuclear industry, were carried out for more than 25 year with the assumption of the Poisson process. However, the assumption of the Poisson process has never been tested. Therefore, the test is of significance. We tested whether the Korean earthquakes follow the Poisson process or not. The Chi-square test with the significance level of 5% was applied. The test turned out that the Poisson process could not be rejected for the earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger. However, it was still observed in the graphical comparison that some portion of the observed distribution significantly deviated from the Poisson distribution. We think this is due to the small earthquake data. The earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger occurred only 376 times during 34 years. Therefore, the judgment on the Poisson process derived in the present study is not conclusive
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Whitty, J.P.M.; Henderson, B.; Francis, J.
2011-01-01
Highlights: → Incontrovertible evidence is presented that thermal stresses in cylindrical components which include nuclear reactors and containment vessels are shown to be highly dependent on the Poisson's ratio of the materials. → The key novelty is concerned with the identification of a new potential thermal applications for negative Poisson's ratio (auxetic) materials; i.e. those that get fatter when they are stretched. → Negative Poisson's ratio (auxetic) materials exhibit lower thermal stress build-up than conventional positive Poisson's ratio materials, this conjecture being proven using thermal surface plots. - Abstract: Analytical and numerical modelling have been employed to show that the choice of Poisson's ratio is one of the principal design criteria in order to reduce thermal stress build-up in isotropic materials. The modelling procedures are all twofold; consisting of a solution to a steady-state heat conduction problem followed by a linear static solution. The models developed take the form of simplistic thick-wall cylinders such model systems are applicable at macro-structural and micro-structural levels as the underlining formulations are based on the classical theory of elasticity. Generally, the results show that the Poisson's ratio of the material has a greater effect on the magnitude of the principal stresses than the aspect ratio of the cylinders investigated. Constraining the outside of these models significantly increases the thermal stresses induced. The most significant and original finding presented is that the for both freely expanding and constrained thick-wall cylinders the optimum Poisson's ratio is minus unity.
Unobserved heterogeneity in the power law nonhomogeneous Poisson process
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Asfaw, Zeytu Gashaw; Lindqvist, Bo Henry
2015-01-01
A study of possible consequences of heterogeneity in the failure intensity of repairable systems is presented. The basic model studied is the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with power law intensity function. When several similar systems are under observation, the assumption that the corresponding processes are independent and identically distributed is often questionable. In practice there may be an unobserved heterogeneity among the systems. The heterogeneity is modeled by introduction of unobserved gamma distributed frailties. The relevant likelihood function is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation is illustrated. In a simulation study we then compare results when using a power law model without taking into account heterogeneity, with the corresponding results obtained when the heterogeneity is accounted for. A motivating data example is also given. - Highlights: • Consequences of overlooking heterogeneity in similar repairable systems are studied. • Likelihood functions are established for power law NHPP w/ and w/o heterogeneity. • ML estimators for parameters of power law NHPP with heterogeneity are derived. • A simulation study shows the effects of heterogeneity and its ignorance in models
Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.
Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N
2016-08-01
Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.
Quantized Algebras of Functions on Homogeneous Spaces with Poisson Stabilizers
Neshveyev, Sergey; Tuset, Lars
2012-05-01
Let G be a simply connected semisimple compact Lie group with standard Poisson structure, K a closed Poisson-Lie subgroup, 0 topology on the spectrum of C( G q / K q ). Next we show that the family of C*-algebras C( G q / K q ), 0 < q ≤ 1, has a canonical structure of a continuous field of C*-algebras and provides a strict deformation quantization of the Poisson algebra {{C}[G/K]} . Finally, extending a result of Nagy, we show that C( G q / K q ) is canonically KK-equivalent to C( G/ K).
Poisson solvers for self-consistent multi-particle simulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qiang, J; Paret, S
2014-01-01
Self-consistent multi-particle simulation plays an important role in studying beam-beam effects and space charge effects in high-intensity beams. The Poisson equation has to be solved at each time-step based on the particle density distribution in the multi-particle simulation. In this paper, we review a number of numerical methods that can be used to solve the Poisson equation efficiently. The computational complexity of those numerical methods will be O(N log(N)) or O(N) instead of O(N2), where N is the total number of grid points used to solve the Poisson equation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrod, Steven; Kelton, W. David
2006-01-01
Nonstationary Poisson processes are appropriate in many applications, including disease studies, transportation, finance, and social policy. The authors review the risks of ignoring nonstationarity in Poisson processes and demonstrate three algorithms for generation of Poisson processes...
Poisson-Lie T-duality open strings and D-branes
Klimcik, C.
1996-01-01
Global issues of the Poisson-Lie T-duality are addressed. It is shown that oriented open strings propagating on a group manifold G are dual to D-brane - anti-D-brane pairs propagating on the dual group manifold \\ti G. The D-branes coincide with the symplectic leaves of the standard Poisson structure induced on the dual group \\ti G by the dressing action of the group G. T-duality maps the momentum of the open string into the mutual distance of the D-branes in the pair. The whole picture is then extended to the full modular space M(D) of the Poisson-Lie equivalent \\si-models which is the space of all Manin triples of a given Drinfeld double.T-duality rotates the zero modes of pairs of D-branes living on targets belonging to M(D). In this more general case the D-branes are preimages of symplectic leaves in certain Poisson homogeneous spaces of their targets and, as such, they are either all even or all odd dimensional.
Quantization of Poisson Manifolds from the Integrability of the Modular Function
Bonechi, F.; Ciccoli, N.; Qiu, J.; Tarlini, M.
2014-10-01
We discuss a framework for quantizing a Poisson manifold via the quantization of its symplectic groupoid, combining the tools of geometric quantization with the results of Renault's theory of groupoid C*-algebras. This setting allows very singular polarizations. In particular, we consider the case when the modular function is multiplicatively integrable, i.e., when the space of leaves of the polarization inherits a groupoid structure. If suitable regularity conditions are satisfied, then one can define the quantum algebra as the convolution algebra of the subgroupoid of leaves satisfying the Bohr-Sommerfeld conditions. We apply this procedure to the case of a family of Poisson structures on , seen as Poisson homogeneous spaces of the standard Poisson-Lie group SU( n + 1). We show that a bihamiltonian system on defines a multiplicative integrable model on the symplectic groupoid; we compute the Bohr-Sommerfeld groupoid and show that it satisfies the needed properties for applying Renault theory. We recover and extend Sheu's description of quantum homogeneous spaces as groupoid C*-algebras.
Dynamics of a prey-predator system under Poisson white noise excitation
Pan, Shan-Shan; Zhu, Wei-Qiu
2014-10-01
The classical Lotka-Volterra (LV) model is a well-known mathematical model for prey-predator ecosystems. In the present paper, the pulse-type version of stochastic LV model, in which the effect of a random natural environment has been modeled as Poisson white noise, is investigated by using the stochastic averaging method. The averaged generalized Itô stochastic differential equation and Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation are derived for prey-predator ecosystem driven by Poisson white noise. Approximate stationary solution for the averaged generalized FPK equation is obtained by using the perturbation method. The effect of prey self-competition parameter ɛ2 s on ecosystem behavior is evaluated. The analytical result is confirmed by corresponding Monte Carlo (MC) simulation.
Lim, Jongil; Whitcomb, John; Boyd, James; Varghese, Julian
2007-01-01
A finite element implementation of the transient nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson (NPP) and Nernst-Planck-Poisson-modified Stern (NPPMS) models is presented. The NPPMS model uses multipoint constraints to account for finite ion size, resulting in realistic ion concentrations even at high surface potential. The Poisson-Boltzmann equation is used to provide a limited check of the transient models for low surface potential and dilute bulk solutions. The effects of the surface potential and bulk molarity on the electric potential and ion concentrations as functions of space and time are studied. The ability of the models to predict realistic energy storage capacity is investigated. The predicted energy is much more sensitive to surface potential than to bulk solution molarity.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cruz Saldanha, Pedro Luiz da.
1995-12-01
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the nonhomogeneous Poisson process as a model to rate of occurrence of failures when it is not constant, and the times between failures are not independent nor identically distributed. To this evaluation, an analyse of reliability of service water pumps of a typical nuclear power plant is made considering the model discussed in the last paragraph, as long as the pumps are effectively repairable components. Standard statistical techniques, such as maximum likelihood and linear regression, are applied to estimate parameters of nonhomogeneous Poisson process model. As a conclusion of the study, the nonhomogeneous Poisson process is adequate to model rate of occurrence of failures that are function of time, and can be used where the aging mechanisms are present in operation of repairable systems. (author). 72 refs., 45 figs., 21 tabs
Contravariant gravity on Poisson manifolds and Einstein gravity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaneko, Yukio; Watamura, Satoshi; Muraki, Hisayoshi
2017-01-01
A relation between gravity on Poisson manifolds proposed in Asakawa et al (2015 Fortschr. Phys . 63 683–704) and Einstein gravity is investigated. The compatibility of the Poisson and Riemann structures defines a unique connection, the contravariant Levi-Civita connection, and leads to the idea of the contravariant gravity. The Einstein–Hilbert-type action yields an equation of motion which is written in terms of the analog of the Einstein tensor, and it includes couplings between the metric and the Poisson tensor. The study of the Weyl transformation reveals properties of those interactions. It is argued that this theory can have an equivalent description as a system of Einstein gravity coupled to matter. As an example, it is shown that the contravariant gravity on a two-dimensional Poisson manifold can be described by a real scalar field coupled to the metric in a specific manner. (paper)
The applicability of the Poisson distribution in radiochemical measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luthardt, M.; Proesch, U.
1980-01-01
The fact that, on principle, the Poisson distribution describes the statistics of nuclear decay is generally accepted. The applicability of this distribution to nuclear radiation measurements has recently been questioned. Applying the chi-squared test for goodness of fit on the analogy of the moving average, at least 3 cases may be distinguished, which lead to an incorrect rejection of the Poisson distribution for measurements. Examples are given. Distributions, which make allowance for special parameters, should only be used after careful examination of the data with regard to other interfering effects. The Poisson distribution will further on be applicable to many simple measuring operations. Some basic equations for the analysis of poisson-distributed data are given. (author)
Optimal linear filtering of Poisson process with dead time
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Glukhova, E.V.
1993-01-01
The paper presents a derivation of an integral equation defining the impulsed transient of optimum linear filtering for evaluation of the intensity of the fluctuating Poisson process with allowance for dead time of transducers
A high order solver for the unbounded Poisson equation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hejlesen, Mads Mølholm; Rasmussen, Johannes Tophøj; Chatelain, Philippe
2013-01-01
. The method is extended to directly solve the derivatives of the solution to Poissonʼs equation. In this way differential operators such as the divergence or curl of the solution field can be solved to the same high order convergence without additional computational effort. The method, is applied......A high order converging Poisson solver is presented, based on the Greenʼs function solution to Poissonʼs equation subject to free-space boundary conditions. The high order convergence is achieved by formulating regularised integration kernels, analogous to a smoothing of the solution field...... and validated, however not restricted, to the equations of fluid mechanics, and can be used in many applications to solve Poissonʼs equation on a rectangular unbounded domain....
Statistics of weighted Poisson events and its applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bohm, G.; Zech, G.
2014-01-01
The statistics of the sum of random weights where the number of weights is Poisson distributed has important applications in nuclear physics, particle physics and astrophysics. Events are frequently weighted according to their acceptance or relevance to a certain type of reaction. The sum is described by the compound Poisson distribution (CPD) which is shortly reviewed. It is shown that the CPD can be approximated by a scaled Poisson distribution (SPD). The SPD is applied to parameter estimation in situations where the data are distorted by resolution effects. It performs considerably better than the normal approximation that is usually used. A special Poisson bootstrap technique is presented which permits to derive confidence limits for observations following the CPD
Formality theory from Poisson structures to deformation quantization
Esposito, Chiara
2015-01-01
This book is a survey of the theory of formal deformation quantization of Poisson manifolds, in the formalism developed by Kontsevich. It is intended as an educational introduction for mathematical physicists who are dealing with the subject for the first time. The main topics covered are the theory of Poisson manifolds, star products and their classification, deformations of associative algebras and the formality theorem. Readers will also be familiarized with the relevant physical motivations underlying the purely mathematical construction.
Null canonical formalism 1, Maxwell field. [Poisson brackets, boundary conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wodkiewicz, K [Warsaw Univ. (Poland). Inst. Fizyki Teoretycznej
1975-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to formulate the canonical formalism on null hypersurfaces for the Maxwell electrodynamics. The set of the Poisson brackets relations for null variables of the Maxwell field is obtained. The asymptotic properties of the theory are investigated. The Poisson bracket relations for the news-functions of the Maxwell field are computed. The Hamiltonian form of the asymptotic Maxwell equations in terms of these news-functions is obtained.
GEPOIS: a two dimensional nonuniform mesh Poisson solver
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quintenz, J.P.; Freeman, J.R.
1979-06-01
A computer code is described which solves Poisson's equation for the electric potential over a two dimensional cylindrical (r,z) nonuniform mesh which can contain internal electrodes. Poisson's equation is solved over a given region subject to a specified charge distribution with either Neumann or Dirichlet perimeter boundary conditions and with Dirichlet boundary conditions on internal surfaces. The static electric field is also computed over the region with special care given to normal electric field components at boundary surfaces
A Note On the Estimation of the Poisson Parameter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. S. Chitgopekar
1985-01-01
distribution when there are errors in observing the zeros and ones and obtains both the maximum likelihood and moments estimates of the Poisson mean and the error probabilities. It is interesting to note that either method fails to give unique estimates of these parameters unless the error probabilities are functionally related. However, it is equally interesting to observe that the estimate of the Poisson mean does not depend on the functional relationship between the error probabilities.
On the Fedosov deformation quantization beyond the regular Poisson manifolds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dolgushev, V.A.; Isaev, A.P.; Lyakhovich, S.L.; Sharapov, A.A.
2002-01-01
A simple iterative procedure is suggested for the deformation quantization of (irregular) Poisson brackets associated to the classical Yang-Baxter equation. The construction is shown to admit a pure algebraic reformulation giving the Universal Deformation Formula (UDF) for any triangular Lie bialgebra. A simple proof of classification theorem for inequivalent UDF's is given. As an example the explicit quantization formula is presented for the quasi-homogeneous Poisson brackets on two-plane
Limitations of Poisson statistics in describing radioactive decay.
Sitek, Arkadiusz; Celler, Anna M
2015-12-01
The assumption that nuclear decays are governed by Poisson statistics is an approximation. This approximation becomes unjustified when data acquisition times longer than or even comparable with the half-lives of the radioisotope in the sample are considered. In this work, the limits of the Poisson-statistics approximation are investigated. The formalism for the statistics of radioactive decay based on binomial distribution is derived. The theoretical factor describing the deviation of variance of the number of decays predicated by the Poisson distribution from the true variance is defined and investigated for several commonly used radiotracers such as (18)F, (15)O, (82)Rb, (13)N, (99m)Tc, (123)I, and (201)Tl. The variance of the number of decays estimated using the Poisson distribution is significantly different than the true variance for a 5-minute observation time of (11)C, (15)O, (13)N, and (82)Rb. Durations of nuclear medicine studies often are relatively long; they may be even a few times longer than the half-lives of some short-lived radiotracers. Our study shows that in such situations the Poisson statistics is unsuitable and should not be applied to describe the statistics of the number of decays in radioactive samples. However, the above statement does not directly apply to counting statistics at the level of event detection. Low sensitivities of detectors which are used in imaging studies make the Poisson approximation near perfect. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Downlink Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access (NOMA) in Poisson Networks
Ali, Konpal S.
2018-03-21
A network model is considered where Poisson distributed base stations transmit to $N$ power-domain non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) users (UEs) each that employ successive interference cancellation (SIC) for decoding. We propose three models for the clustering of NOMA UEs and consider two different ordering techniques for the NOMA UEs: mean signal power-based and instantaneous signal-to-intercell-interference-and-noise-ratio-based. For each technique, we present a signal-to-interference-and-noise ratio analysis for the coverage of the typical UE. We plot the rate region for the two-user case and show that neither ordering technique is consistently superior to the other. We propose two efficient algorithms for finding a feasible resource allocation that maximize the cell sum rate $\\\\mathcal{R}_{\\ m tot}$, for general $N$, constrained to: 1) a minimum rate $\\\\mathcal{T}$ for each UE, 2) identical rates for all UEs. We show the existence of: 1) an optimum $N$ that maximizes the constrained $\\\\mathcal{R}_{\\ m tot}$ given a set of network parameters, 2) a critical SIC level necessary for NOMA to outperform orthogonal multiple access. The results highlight the importance in choosing the network parameters $N$, the constraints, and the ordering technique to balance the $\\\\mathcal{R}_{\\ m tot}$ and fairness requirements. We also show that interference-aware UE clustering can significantly improve performance.