WorldWideScience

Sample records for plausible scenario recreational

  1. Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Björkman, B.; Fridell, K.; Tavakol Olofsson, P.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. Method: The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Results: Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled “Access to career advancement” and “A sufficient number of radiographers”, were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. Conclusion: It is suggested that “The dying profession” scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of “happy radiographers” who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by “the assembly line”. - Highlights: • The world of radiography is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. • Future opportunities and threats should be identified and incorporated into the strategic planning. • Appropriate actions can probably change the

  2. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  3. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  4. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  5. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  6. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  7. A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

    2016-12-01

    Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and

  8. Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both

  9. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional

  10. Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps

  11. USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, E.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E. N.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and

  12. Recreating a medieval urban scene with virtual intelligent characters: steps to create the complete scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Cláudio

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available From historical advice to 3D modeling and programming, the process of reconstructing cultural heritage sites populated with virtual inhabitants is lengthy and expensive, and it requires a large set of skills and tools. These constraints make it increasingly difficult, however not unattainable, for small archaeological sites to build their own simulations. In this article, we describe our attempt to minimize this scenario. We describe a framework that makes use of free tools or campus licenses and integrates the curricular work of students in academia. We present the details of methods and tools used in the pipeline of the construction of the virtual simulation of the medieval village of Mértola in the south of Portugal. We report on: a the development of a lightweight model of the village, including houses and terrain, and b its integration in a game engine in order to c include a virtual population of autonomous inhabitants in a simulation running in real-time.

  13. Energy conservation: policy issues and end-use scenarios of savings potential. Part IV. Energy-efficient recreational travel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, P.; Codina, R.; Cornwall, B.

    1978-09-01

    The guidelines laid out for the five subjects investigated in this series are to take a holistic view of energy conservation policies by describing the overall system in which they are implemented; provide analytical tools and sufficiently disaggregated data bases that can be adapted to answer a variety of questions by the users; identify and discuss some of the important issues behind successful energy conservation policy; and develop an energy conservation policy in depth. This report contains the design of a specific policy that addresses energy conservation in recreational travel. The policy is denoted as an ''Information System for the National Park Service.'' This work is based on prior examination of the characteristics of the recreational trip and decision making for the recreational experience. The examination revealed which aspects of the recreational travel system needed to be addressed to encourage energy-efficient modal decisions for recreational travel. This policy is briefly described in Section 1, the ''Summary of Initiative.'' A more detailed discussion of the policy follows. The material which led to the policy's formation is developed in Section 2: Importance and Impact of the Recreational Trip; Weekend Travel; The Flowchart: Decision Making for the Recreational Experience; Policy Development for Phase 1 ''Planning the Trip;'' and Objectives and Strategies for ''Planning the Trip.'' (MCW)

  14. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  15. Heuristic Elements of Plausible Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudczak, Craig A.

    At least some of the reasoning processes involved in argumentation rely on inferences which do not fit within the traditional categories of inductive or deductive reasoning. The reasoning processes involved in plausibility judgments have neither the formal certainty of deduction nor the imputed statistical probability of induction. When utilizing…

  16. Plausible values in statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsman, M.

    2014-01-01

    In Chapter 2 it is shown that the marginal distribution of plausible values is a consistent estimator of the true latent variable distribution, and, furthermore, that convergence is monotone in an embedding in which the number of items tends to infinity. This result is used to clarify some of the

  17. The Evolution of NATO with Four Plausible Threat Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-08-01

    were political changes as well. The evolution of British political institutions, and especially the widening of the franchise by electoral reform, had...countries. King Edward, in particular, excited the French imagination. In his con- tact with French statesmen, Edward made clear his desire for an...such as the Mitteland Kanal, British lines of communication and the Teuto- burger Wald before making contact. With Soviet air forces alert against

  18. Operation Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutz, Jeff; Schutz, Laurie

    2010-01-01

    Parents who have a child with a disability often find that recreational activities can be anything but accessible. Time for recreation is drowned by the priorities of caring for a child's needs, and the "umph" to get out can feel like an insurmountable obstacle. The activities parents love and aspire to share with their child may seem like one…

  19. Bisimulation for Single-Agent Plausibility Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; van Ditmarsch, H.

    2013-01-01

    define a proper notion of bisimulation, and prove that bisimulation corresponds to logical equivalence on image-finite models. We relate our results to other epistemic notions, such as safe belief and degrees of belief. Our results imply that there are only finitely many non-bisimilar single......-agent epistemic plausibility models on a finite set of propositions. This gives decidability for single-agent epistemic plausibility planning....

  20. Outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. M. Bowker; Ashley Askew; H. Ken Cordell; John C. Bergstrom

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBy 2060, the number of southern adults participating in each of 10 different popular outdoor recreation activities is projected to increase. Depending on future demographic, economic, land use, and population changes, the activity demonstrating the least growth in participants is hunting (8–25 percent). The activity projected to...

  1. Anatomically Plausible Surface Alignment and Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus R.; Larsen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing clinical use of 3D surface scanners, there is a need for accurate and reliable algorithms that can produce anatomically plausible surfaces. In this paper, a combined method for surface alignment and reconstruction is proposed. It is based on an implicit surface representation...

  2. Optimality and Plausibility in Language Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael R. Levot

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Minimalist Program in generative syntax has been the subject of much rancour, a good proportion of it stoked by Noam Chomsky’s suggestion that language may represent “a ‘perfect solution’ to minimal design specifications.” A particular flash point has been the application of Minimalist principles to speculations about how language evolved in the human species. This paper argues that Minimalism is well supported as a plausible approach to language evolution. It is claimed that an assumption of minimal design specifications like that employed in MP syntax satisfies three key desiderata of evolutionary and general scientific plausibility: Physical Optimism, Rational Optimism, and Darwin’s Problem. In support of this claim, the methodologies employed in MP to maximise parsimony are characterised through an analysis of recent theories in Minimalist syntax, and those methodologies are defended with reference to practices and arguments from evolutionary biology and other natural sciences.

  3. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  4. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  5. FAQ about Recreational Therapy (RT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Recreation &Community Activities WHAT ARE A RECREATIONAL THERAPIST'S EDUCATION, QUALIFICATIONS, & CREDENTIALS? A qualified recreational therapist is someone who is nationally certified as a Certified Therapeutic Recreation Specialist (CTRS), usually referred to as Recreational ...

  6. International Fisheries Management and Recreational Benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oinonen, Soile; Grønbæk, Lone; Laukkanen, Marita

    2016-01-01

    This article studies how accounting for the benefits of recreational fisheries affects the formation and stability of an international fisheries agreement (IFA) on the management of Baltic salmon stocks. The interaction between four countries is modelled through a partition function game, under two...... scenarios. In the first scenario, countries take their participation decision for the IFA based only on the net present value of profits from commercial fisheries. In the second scenario, the net present value of the recreational benefits from angling is also considered. The results show that accounting...... for recreational benefits leads to the formation of the grand coalition, whereas only partial cooperation occurs when payoffs are confined to profits from commercial fisheries....

  7. Plausibility and evidence: the case of homeopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, Lex; Mathie, Robert T; Fisher, Peter; Goossens, Maria; van Wassenhoven, Michel

    2013-08-01

    Homeopathy is controversial and hotly debated. The conclusions of systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials of homeopathy vary from 'comparable to conventional medicine' to 'no evidence of effects beyond placebo'. It is claimed that homeopathy conflicts with scientific laws and that homoeopaths reject the naturalistic outlook, but no evidence has been cited. We are homeopathic physicians and researchers who do not reject the scientific outlook; we believe that examination of the prior beliefs underlying this enduring stand-off can advance the debate. We show that interpretations of the same set of evidence--for homeopathy and for conventional medicine--can diverge. Prior disbelief in homeopathy is rooted in the perceived implausibility of any conceivable mechanism of action. Using the 'crossword analogy', we demonstrate that plausibility bias impedes assessment of the clinical evidence. Sweeping statements about the scientific impossibility of homeopathy are themselves unscientific: scientific statements must be precise and testable. There is growing evidence that homeopathic preparations can exert biological effects; due consideration of such research would reduce the influence of prior beliefs on the assessment of systematic review evidence.

  8. Analytic models of plausible gravitational lens potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baltz, Edward A.; Marshall, Phil; Oguri, Masamune

    2009-01-01

    Gravitational lenses on galaxy scales are plausibly modelled as having ellipsoidal symmetry and a universal dark matter density profile, with a Sérsic profile to describe the distribution of baryonic matter. Predicting all lensing effects requires knowledge of the total lens potential: in this work we give analytic forms for that of the above hybrid model. Emphasising that complex lens potentials can be constructed from simpler components in linear combination, we provide a recipe for attaining elliptical symmetry in either projected mass or lens potential. We also provide analytic formulae for the lens potentials of Sérsic profiles for integer and half-integer index. We then present formulae describing the gravitational lensing effects due to smoothly-truncated universal density profiles in cold dark matter model. For our isolated haloes the density profile falls off as radius to the minus fifth or seventh power beyond the tidal radius, functional forms that allow all orders of lens potential derivatives to be calculated analytically, while ensuring a non-divergent total mass. We show how the observables predicted by this profile differ from that of the original infinite-mass NFW profile. Expressions for the gravitational flexion are highlighted. We show how decreasing the tidal radius allows stripped haloes to be modelled, providing a framework for a fuller investigation of dark matter substructure in galaxies and clusters. Finally we remark on the need for finite mass halo profiles when doing cosmological ray-tracing simulations, and the need for readily-calculable higher order derivatives of the lens potential when studying catastrophes in strong lenses

  9. Ecology, recreation and landscape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satchell, J E

    1983-01-01

    The article is dedicated to the problems of combining mass tourism in certain countries of Western Europe and environmental protection (OOS) requirements. The ecological damage from recreation is examined and the throughput of the medium is evaluated. The author proposes development of regulable, managable and controllable recreation use of natural resources and landscapes using selective advertising of the recreation sites.

  10. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  11. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  12. Application of plausible reasoning to AI-based control systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenji, Hamid; Lum, Henry, Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Some current approaches to plausible reasoning in artificial intelligence are reviewed and discussed. Some of the most significant recent advances in plausible and approximate reasoning are examined. A synergism among the techniques of uncertainty management is advocated, and brief discussions on the certainty factor approach, probabilistic approach, Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, possibility theory, linguistic variables, and fuzzy control are presented. Some extensions to these methods are described, and the applications of the methods are considered.

  13. Pilgrims sailing the Titanic: plausibility effects on memory for misinformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinze, Scott R; Slaten, Daniel G; Horton, William S; Jenkins, Ryan; Rapp, David N

    2014-02-01

    People rely on information they read even when it is inaccurate (Marsh, Meade, & Roediger, Journal of Memory and Language 49:519-536, 2003), but how ubiquitous is this phenomenon? In two experiments, we investigated whether this tendency to encode and rely on inaccuracies from text might be influenced by the plausibility of misinformation. In Experiment 1, we presented stories containing inaccurate plausible statements (e.g., "The Pilgrims' ship was the Godspeed"), inaccurate implausible statements (e.g., . . . the Titanic), or accurate statements (e.g., . . . the Mayflower). On a subsequent test of general knowledge, participants relied significantly less on implausible than on plausible inaccuracies from the texts but continued to rely on accurate information. In Experiment 2, we replicated these results with the addition of a think-aloud procedure to elicit information about readers' noticing and evaluative processes for plausible and implausible misinformation. Participants indicated more skepticism and less acceptance of implausible than of plausible inaccuracies. In contrast, they often failed to notice, completely ignored, and at times even explicitly accepted the misinformation provided by plausible lures. These results offer insight into the conditions under which reliance on inaccurate information occurs and suggest potential mechanisms that may underlie reported misinformation effects.

  14. Sampling and estimating recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1999-01-01

    Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

  15. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation....... In the UK the focus on underrepresented groups seems closely related to the focus on equality for access, while specific focus on access for ethnic minorities is not addressed in the forest and nature legislation and the national forest programs in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Paper 4 proposes...

  16. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  17. Recreational Angler Attitudes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA Fisheries implemented a national survey of saltwater recreational anglers beginning in February 2013. The survey was implemented in six regions including the...

  18. Recreational Boating Statistics 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  19. Recreational Boating Statistics 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  20. American Therapeutic Recreation Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 28.00 Learn More Coverage of Recreational Therapy: Rules and Regulations (3rd Edition) Non Member Price: $45.00 Member Price: ... Web Feedback — We'd love to hear from you. Contact us at webmaster@ ...

  1. Recreational Boating Statistics 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  2. Elbrus – chronology, recreation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergii Bershov

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to conduct research of the historical and geographical factors of becoming and development of the Elbrus region as a center of tourism and mountaineering, to consider the use of mountain and natural complexes for active rest, to give a recreational assessment of the use of mountain natural complexes. Material & Methods: analysis of literature sources, analysis of documents, organizational analysis. Results: the historical and geographical analysis of the mountain-natural territory of the Elbrus region is carried out, the recreational assessment of the use of mountain natural complexes for active recreation is displed. Conclusions: analysis of the spatial assessment of the recreational and tourism-mountaineering potential of mountain natural territorial systems, allows choosing the safest and most attractive routes and classifying them according to complexity and safety.

  3. Attitudes towards recreational hunting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamborg, Christian; Jensen, Frank Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    a negative attitude to recreational hunting. Older respondents and rural residents had more positive attitudes towards hunting than younger and urban residents. Some of the conditions under which hunting occurs affected attitudes negatively, especially the hunting of farm-reared and released game birds...... to the commercial aspect of hunting and this could result in tighter regulation with further effects on management practices. Management Implications The public opinions and public preferences concerning recreational hunting are complex. However, this study revealed some factors relevant for regulatory...... and managerial development in relation to outdoor recreation: age (younger respondents were least supportive of hunting), urbanisation (living in an urban environment enhanced negative attitudes), compatibility of recreational hunting with other outdoor leisure activities....

  4. Outdoor Recreation Sites Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — The RECSITES data layer contains a wide range of recreational sites in Vermont. This point data layer includes parks, ski areas, boat access points, and many other...

  5. Searching for Plausible N-k Contingencies Endangering Voltage Stability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel; Van Cutsem, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel search algorithm using time-domain simulations to identify plausible N − k contingencies endangering voltage stability. Starting from an initial list of disturbances, progressively more severe contingencies are investigated. After simulation of a N − k contingency......, the simulation results are assessed. If the system response is unstable, a plausible harmful contingency sequence has been found. Otherwise, components affected by the contingencies are considered as candidate next event leading to N − (k + 1) contingencies. This implicitly takes into account hidden failures...

  6. Recreating Daily life in Pompeii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Magnenat-Thalmann

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We propose an integrated Mixed Reality methodology for recreating ancient daily life that features realistic simulations of animated virtual human actors (clothes, body, skin, face who augment real environments and re-enact staged storytelling dramas. We aim to go further from traditional concepts of static cultural artifacts or rigid geometrical and 2D textual augmentations and allow for 3D, interactive, augmented historical character-based event representations in a mobile and wearable setup. This is the main contribution of the described work as well as the proposed extensions to AR Enabling technologies: a VR/AR character simulation kernel framework with real-time, clothed virtual humans that are dynamically superimposed on live camera input, animated and acting based on a predefined, historically correct scenario. We demonstrate such a real-time case study on the actual site of ancient Pompeii.

  7. Expanding & strengthening outdoor recreation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter S. Hopkins

    1971-01-01

    Though the Forest Service has pioneered in outdoor recreation research, the funding for recreation research has been inadequate. Specific needs for research are outlined. There is a need to define recreation and recreation research in terms that busy legislators can understand.

  8. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  9. A Stochastic Model of Plausibility in Live Virtual Constructive Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-14

    from the model parameters that are inputs to the computer model ( mathematical model) but whose exact values are unknown to experimentalists and...Environments Jeremy R. Millar Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Computer Sciences Commons This Dissertation...25 3.3 Computing Plausibility Exceedance Probabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 IV

  10. Endocrine distrupting chemicals and human health: The plausibility ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The plausibility of research results on DDT and reproductive health ... cals in the environment and that human health is inextri- cably linked to the health of .... periods of folliculo-genesis or embryo-genesis that increases risk for adverse effects.

  11. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  12. Pathogen Loading From Canada Geese Faeces in Freshwater: Potential Risks to Human Health Through Recreational Water Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorham, T J; Lee, J

    2016-05-01

    Canada geese (Branta canadensis) faeces have been shown to contain pathogenic protozoa and bacteria in numerous studies over the past 15 years. Further, increases in both the Canada geese populations and their ideal habitat requirements in the United States (US) translate to a greater presence of these human pathogens in public areas, such as recreational freshwater beaches. Combining these factors, the potential health risk posed by Canada geese faeces at freshwater beaches presents an emerging public health issue that warrants further study. Here, literature concerning human pathogens in Canada geese faeces is reviewed and the potential impacts these pathogens may have on human health are discussed. Pathogens of potential concern include Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella Typhimurium, Listeria monocytogenes, Helicobacter canadensis, Arcobacter spp., Enterohemorragic Escherichia coli pathogenic strains, Chlamydia psitacci, Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia lamblia. Scenarios presenting potential exposure to pathogens eluted from faeces include bathers swimming in lakes, children playing with wet and dry sand impacted by geese droppings and other common recreational activities associated with public beaches. Recent recreational water-associated disease outbreaks in the US support the plausibility for some of these pathogens, including Cryptosporidium spp. and C. jejuni, to cause human illness in this setting. In view of these findings and the uncertainties associated with the real health risk posed by Canada geese faecal pathogens to users of freshwater lakes, it is recommended that beach managers use microbial source tracking and conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment to analyse the local impact of Canada geese on microbial water quality during their decision-making process in beach and watershed management. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  13. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation...... often reported using green areas to “drink beer with friends” and “do sunbathing”. The third paper reflects on the different national approaches towards ethnic minorities’ access to natural areas, in four example-countries Germany, Denmark, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. This was done through....... In the UK the focus on underrepresented groups seems closely related to the focus on equality for access, while specific focus on access for ethnic minorities is not addressed in the forest and nature legislation and the national forest programs in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. Paper 4 proposes...

  14. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems networks of plausible inference

    CERN Document Server

    Pearl, Judea

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provid

  15. Generation of Plausible Hurricane Tracks for Preparedness Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-25

    product kernel. KDE with a beta kernel gene- rates maximum sustained winds, and linear regression simulates minimum central pressure. Maximum significant...the Storm level models the number of waypoints M , birth and death locations w1 and wM , and total number of steps L. The Stage level models the...MATLAB and leverages HURDAT2 to construct data-driven statistical models that can generate plausible yet never-before-seen storm behaviors. For a

  16. Credibility judgments of narratives: language, plausibility, and absorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahari, Galit; Glicksohn, Joseph; Nachson, Israel

    2010-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted in order to find out whether textual features of narratives differentially affect credibility judgments made by judges having different levels of absorption (a disposition associated with rich visual imagination). Participants in both experiments were exposed to a textual narrative and requested to judge whether the narrator actually experienced the event he described in his story. In Experiment 1, the narrative varied in terms of language (literal, figurative) and plausibility (ordinary, anomalous). In Experiment 2, the narrative varied in terms of language only. The participants' perceptions of the plausibility of the story described and the extent to which they were absorbed in reading were measured. The data from both experiments together suggest that the groups applied entirely different criteria in credibility judgments. For high-absorption individuals, their credibility judgment depends on the degree to which the text can be assimilated into their own vivid imagination, whereas for low-absorption individuals it depends mainly on plausibility. That is, high-absorption individuals applied an experiential mental set while judging the credibility of the narrator, whereas low-absorption individuals applied an instrumental mental set. Possible cognitive mechanisms and implications for credibility judgments are discussed.

  17. Directory of National Recreation Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exceptional Parent, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Thirty national recreation organizations serving individuals with disabilities are listed, along with addresses and telephone numbers. Sample recreational activities covered include Boy Scouts and Girls Scouts, various wheelchair sports, skiing, golfing, and horticultural therapy. (JDD)

  18. Semantics-based plausible reasoning to extend the knowledge coverage of medical knowledge bases for improved clinical decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadhassanzadeh, Hossein; Van Woensel, William; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

    2017-01-01

    Capturing complete medical knowledge is challenging-often due to incomplete patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), but also because of valuable, tacit medical knowledge hidden away in physicians' experiences. To extend the coverage of incomplete medical knowledge-based systems beyond their deductive closure, and thus enhance their decision-support capabilities, we argue that innovative, multi-strategy reasoning approaches should be applied. In particular, plausible reasoning mechanisms apply patterns from human thought processes, such as generalization, similarity and interpolation, based on attributional, hierarchical, and relational knowledge. Plausible reasoning mechanisms include inductive reasoning , which generalizes the commonalities among the data to induce new rules, and analogical reasoning , which is guided by data similarities to infer new facts. By further leveraging rich, biomedical Semantic Web ontologies to represent medical knowledge, both known and tentative, we increase the accuracy and expressivity of plausible reasoning, and cope with issues such as data heterogeneity, inconsistency and interoperability. In this paper, we present a Semantic Web-based, multi-strategy reasoning approach, which integrates deductive and plausible reasoning and exploits Semantic Web technology to solve complex clinical decision support queries. We evaluated our system using a real-world medical dataset of patients with hepatitis, from which we randomly removed different percentages of data (5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%) to reflect scenarios with increasing amounts of incomplete medical knowledge. To increase the reliability of the results, we generated 5 independent datasets for each percentage of missing values, which resulted in 20 experimental datasets (in addition to the original dataset). The results show that plausibly inferred knowledge extends the coverage of the knowledge base by, on average, 2%, 7%, 12%, and 16% for datasets with, respectively, 5%, 10%, 15

  19. Marketing therapeutic recreation services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorn, B E

    1984-01-01

    The use of marketing strategies can enhance the delivery of therapeutic recreation services. This article discusses how agencies can adapt marketing techniques and use them to identify potential markets, improve image, evaluate external pressures, and maximize internal strengths. Four variables that can be controlled and manipulated in a proposed marketing plan are product, price, place and promotion.

  20. The Consumer and Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    New York State Education Dept., Albany. Bureau of Secondary Curriculum Development.

    This publication deals with recreation and leisure in American society. It is stated that the greater mobility of Americans, the increased time and money available for leisure time pursuits, the higher degree of educational level with accompanying wider interests, and the changing attitudes toward the balance between work and play are having…

  1. Why Model Recreation Use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole; Kerri Cahill; Marilyn Hof

    2005-01-01

    As the demographics of public land recreational visitors change, planners and managers of public lands face the challenge of protecting resources while providing high quality visitor experiences. Because our political environment demands ever more reliance on scientific data and transparent decisionmaking, planners and managers need better tools to help them understand...

  2. Children's recreational physical activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2011-01-01

    This study explored children's participation in recreational (physical) activities and the extent to which this participation was influenced by individual and household socio-demographics and characteristics of the social and physical environment. Travel and activity diaries were used to collect

  3. Wilderness Recreation Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, Jack K.

    1977-01-01

    A Wilderness Recreation Education program aims to: offer students an opportunity to be involved with direct learning in the outdoors; instill an understanding of ways to exist within and enjoy the wilderness environment; and develop an awareness of an appreciation for the need to conserve and maintain the wilderness environment for generations to…

  4. Implications of climatic change for tourism and recreation in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, G.; Harrison, R.; Kinnaird, V.; McBoyle, G.; Quinland, C.

    1988-01-01

    Scenarios for climatic change associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide were employed in an assessment of the impacts of climate change on tourism and recreation in Ontario. A warmer climate resulting from such change may mean declining lake levels with associated changes in the ecological interest and recreational potential of wetlands, as shown by case studies on two parks near Great Lakes shorelines. In the skiing industry, the length of ski seasons will be reduced in the northern part of the province, but the key holiday periods (when a large portion of total business is conducted) should still fall within the reliable ski season. Further south, the ski season in the South Georgian Bay region could be eliminated. Summer recreational activities are likely to have extended seasons, and the viability of summer recreational enterprises may increase, with associated positive benefits to neighboring communities. 2 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  5. Substitution in recreation choice behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    George L. Peterson; Daniel J. Stynes; Donald H. Rosenthal; John F. Dwyer

    1985-01-01

    This review discusses concepts and theories of substitution in recreation choice. It brings together the literature of recreation research, psychology, geography, economics, and transportation. Parallel and complementary developments need integration into an improved theory of substitution. Recreation decision behavior is characterized as a nested or sequential choice...

  6. Job satisfaction among recreation practitioners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin Parks; Andrew Holdnak

    2002-01-01

    Job satisfaction among recreation professionals can be affected by many working conditions. This study has investigated the impact fourteen variables had on the job satisfaction of recreation practitioners. The sample consisted of 106 responses from members of the Resort and Commercial Recreation Association (RCRA). The results of the regression analysis for job...

  7. Applying Recreation Survey Results to Recreation Planning for Water-Based Recreation Areas in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett Duncan; John Mintz; Douglas Rischbieter; John Baas

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on identifying applications of recreation survey results in the context of water-based recreation planning. Recreation researchers have sometimes been criticized for conducting research that is weak in applied value (Cordell 1999). The paper also focuses on the important, but sometimes forgotten role that private entities play (e.g., Pacific Gas and...

  8. Recreational drugs of abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertson, Timothy E

    2014-02-01

    The use of recreational drugs of abuse continues to expand without limitations to national boundaries, social status, race, or education. Beyond the prevalence of illicit drug use and dependence, their contribution to the global burden of disease and death are large and troubling. All medical providers should be aware of the evolving drugs of abuse and their medical and social consequences. In addition to heroin and stimulants such as cocaine and methamphetamine, new designer stimulants called "bath salts" and cannabinoids called "spice," along with the abuse of prescription drugs and volatile substances, are now widely recognized problems in many societies. The wide variety and continuingly expanding clinical manifestations of toxicity of recreational drugs of abuse is not widely appreciated by clinicians. This edition attempts to summarize six major classes of drugs of abuse and their clinical effects with special emphasis on their immunological and respiratory effects.

  9. Nordic urban nature recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, Scott; Lindhjem, Henrik; Zandersen, Marianne

    the associated nonmarket welfare benefits. The study stresses the need to collect user data to better understand visitation patterns, which can be combined with valuation methods to provide evidence of economic benefits associated with e.g., hiking, cycling, skiing, paddling and other recreation activities. Once......The Nordic countries continue to experience growth of urban areas, which provides benefits like economic growth, but also imposes economic costs in terms of reduced ecosystem services. This report focuses on urban nature recreation and highlights economic methods and data that can help capture...... these benefits are visible, decision-makers will have a better basis to balance economic growth with the environmental costs it imposes on urban ecosystem services....

  10. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  11. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  12. Neural networks, nativism, and the plausibility of constructivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartz, S R

    1993-09-01

    Recent interest in PDP (parallel distributed processing) models is due in part to the widely held belief that they challenge many of the assumptions of classical cognitive science. In the domain of language acquisition, for example, there has been much interest in the claim that PDP models might undermine nativism. Related arguments based on PDP learning have also been given against Fodor's anti-constructivist position--a position that has contributed to the widespread dismissal of constructivism. A limitation of many of the claims regarding PDP learning, however, is that the principles underlying this learning have not been rigorously characterized. In this paper, I examine PDP models from within the framework of Valiant's PAC (probably approximately correct) model of learning, now the dominant model in machine learning, and which applies naturally to neural network learning. From this perspective, I evaluate the implications of PDP models for nativism and Fodor's influential anti-constructivist position. In particular, I demonstrate that, contrary to a number of claims, PDP models are nativist in a robust sense. I also demonstrate that PDP models actually serve as a good illustration of Fodor's anti-constructivist position. While these results may at first suggest that neural network models in general are incapable of the sort of concept acquisition that is required to refute Fodor's anti-constructivist position, I suggest that there is an alternative form of neural network learning that demonstrates the plausibility of constructivism. This alternative form of learning is a natural interpretation of the constructivist position in terms of neural network learning, as it employs learning algorithms that incorporate the addition of structure in addition to weight modification schemes. By demonstrating that there is a natural and plausible interpretation of constructivism in terms of neural network learning, the position that nativism is the only plausible model of

  13. The ethical plausibility of the 'Right To Try' laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrieri, D; Peccatori, F A; Boniolo, G

    2018-02-01

    'Right To Try' (RTT) laws originated in the USA to allow terminally ill patients to request access to early stage experimental medical products directly from the producer, removing the oversight and approval of the Food and Drug Administration. These laws have received significant media attention and almost equally unanimous criticism by the bioethics, clinical and scientific communities. They touch indeed on complex issues such as the conflict between individual and public interest, and the public understanding of medical research and its regulation. The increased awareness around RTT laws means that healthcare providers directly involved in the management of patients with life-threatening conditions such as cancer, infective, or neurologic conditions will deal more frequently with patients' requests of access to experimental medical products. This paper aims to assess the ethical plausibility of the RTT laws, and to suggest some possible ethical tools and considerations to address the main issues they touch. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. On the biological plausibility of Wind Turbine Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Robert V

    2015-01-01

    An emerging environmental health issue relates to potential ill-effects of wind turbine noise. There have been numerous suggestions that the low-frequency acoustic components in wind turbine signals can cause symptoms associated with vestibular system disorders, namely vertigo, nausea, and nystagmus. This constellation of symptoms has been labeled as Wind Turbine Syndrome, and has been identified in case studies of individuals living close to wind farms. This review discusses whether it is biologically plausible for the turbine noise to stimulate the vestibular parts of the inner ear and, by extension, cause Wind Turbine Syndrome. We consider the sound levels that can activate the semicircular canals or otolith end organs in normal subjects, as well as in those with preexisting conditions known to lower vestibular threshold to sound stimulation.

  15. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  16. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  17. Plausible inference: A multi-valued logic for problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, L.

    1979-01-01

    A new logic is developed which permits continuously variable strength of belief in the truth of assertions. Four inference rules result, with formal logic as a limiting case. Quantification of belief is defined. Propagation of belief to linked assertions results from dependency-based techniques of truth maintenance so that local consistency is achieved or contradiction discovered in problem solving. Rules for combining, confirming, or disconfirming beliefs are given, and several heuristics are suggested that apply to revising already formed beliefs in the light of new evidence. The strength of belief that results in such revisions based on conflicting evidence are a highly subjective phenomenon. Certain quantification rules appear to reflect an orderliness in the subjectivity. Several examples of reasoning by plausible inference are given, including a legal example and one from robot learning. Propagation of belief takes place in directions forbidden in formal logic and this results in conclusions becoming possible for a given set of assertions that are not reachable by formal logic.

  18. Liderazgo preventivo para la universidad. Una experiencia plausible

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Rodríguez Rodríguez

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available El desarrollo del liderazgo, en el ámbito educativo superior, busca soluciones de aplicación inmediata a contextos en que todo líder se desenvuelve, pero se diluye el sustento teórico-práctico en la formación del líder que posibilite entender los procesos intelectivos durante la toma de decisiones. El paradigma de convergencia entre el método antropológico lonerganiano, la comunidad de aprendizaje vygotskiana y una relectura del sistema preventivo salesiano se presentan como propuesta plausible de formación al liderazgo preventivo entre los diversos actores de una comunidad universitaria. Un estudio de caso de la Universidad Salesiana en México empleando un método mixto de investigación, facilita una relectura del liderazgo desde una óptica preventiva como posibilidad de convergencia en un diálogo interdisciplinar. Los resultados teórico-práctico propuestos y examinados se muestran como herramienta útil para evaluar, enriquecer y renovar la teoría sobre el líder y el desarrollo de liderazgo en las universidades frente a una sociedad globalizada.

  19. Recreational mountain biking injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, S A; Biant, L C; Court-Brown, Charles M

    2011-04-01

    Mountain biking is increasing in popularity worldwide. The injury patterns associated with elite level and competitive mountain biking are known. This study analysed the incidence, spectrum and risk factors for injuries sustained during recreational mountain biking. The injury rate was 1.54 injuries per 1000 biker exposures. Men were more commonly injured than women, with those aged 30-39 years at highest risk. The commonest types of injury were wounding, skeletal fracture and musculoskeletal soft tissue injury. Joint dislocations occurred more commonly in older mountain bikers. The limbs were more commonly injured than the axial skeleton. The highest hospital admission rates were observed with head, neck and torso injuries. Protective body armour, clip-in pedals and the use of a full-suspension bicycle may confer a protective effect.

  20. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  1. Structure before meaning: sentence processing, plausibility, and subcategorization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kizach, Johannes; Nyvad, Anne Mette; Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

    2013-01-01

    Natural language processing is a fast and automatized process. A crucial part of this process is parsing, the online incremental construction of a syntactic structure. The aim of this study was to test whether a wh-filler extracted from an embedded clause is initially attached as the object of the matrix verb with subsequent reanalysis, and if so, whether the plausibility of such an attachment has an effect on reaction time. Finally, we wanted to examine whether subcategorization plays a role. We used a method called G-Maze to measure response time in a self-paced reading design. The experiments confirmed that there is early attachment of fillers to the matrix verb. When this attachment is implausible, the off-line acceptability of the whole sentence is significantly reduced. The on-line results showed that G-Maze was highly suited for this type of experiment. In accordance with our predictions, the results suggest that the parser ignores (or has no access to information about) implausibility and attaches fillers as soon as possible to the matrix verb. However, the results also show that the parser uses the subcategorization frame of the matrix verb. In short, the parser ignores semantic information and allows implausible attachments but adheres to information about which type of object a verb can take, ensuring that the parser does not make impossible attachments. We argue that the evidence supports a syntactic parser informed by syntactic cues, rather than one guided by semantic cues or one that is blind, or completely autonomous.

  2. Structure before meaning: sentence processing, plausibility, and subcategorization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Kizach

    Full Text Available Natural language processing is a fast and automatized process. A crucial part of this process is parsing, the online incremental construction of a syntactic structure. The aim of this study was to test whether a wh-filler extracted from an embedded clause is initially attached as the object of the matrix verb with subsequent reanalysis, and if so, whether the plausibility of such an attachment has an effect on reaction time. Finally, we wanted to examine whether subcategorization plays a role. We used a method called G-Maze to measure response time in a self-paced reading design. The experiments confirmed that there is early attachment of fillers to the matrix verb. When this attachment is implausible, the off-line acceptability of the whole sentence is significantly reduced. The on-line results showed that G-Maze was highly suited for this type of experiment. In accordance with our predictions, the results suggest that the parser ignores (or has no access to information about implausibility and attaches fillers as soon as possible to the matrix verb. However, the results also show that the parser uses the subcategorization frame of the matrix verb. In short, the parser ignores semantic information and allows implausible attachments but adheres to information about which type of object a verb can take, ensuring that the parser does not make impossible attachments. We argue that the evidence supports a syntactic parser informed by syntactic cues, rather than one guided by semantic cues or one that is blind, or completely autonomous.

  3. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  4. Encouraging Recreational Reading (The Printout).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balajthy, Ernest

    1988-01-01

    Describes computer software, including "The Electronic Bookshelf" and "Return to Reading," which provides motivation for recreational reading in various ways, including: quizzes, games based on books, and whole language activities for children's literature and young adult fiction. (MM)

  5. Massachusetts Recreational Fishing Demand Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in 2012 from Massachuestts saltwater recreational fishermen. Saltwater anglers fishing in Massachusetts (MA)...

  6. A tough egg to crack: recreational boats as vectors for invasive goby eggs and transdisciplinary management approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp E; Adrian-Kalchhauser, Irene; Flämig, Sylvie; N'Guyen, Anouk; Defila, Rico; Di Giulio, Antonietta; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2016-02-01

    Non-native invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Freshwater ecosystems are naturally rather isolated from one another. Nonetheless, invasive species often spread rapidly across water sheds. This spread is to a large extent realized by human activities that provide vectors. For example, recreational boats can carry invasive species propagules as "aquatic hitch-hikers" within and across water sheds. We used invasive gobies in Switzerland as a case study to test the plausibility that recreational boats can serve as vectors for invasive fish and that fish eggs can serve as propagules. We found that the peak season of boat movements across Switzerland and the goby spawning season overlap temporally. It is thus plausible that goby eggs attached to boats, anchors, or gear may be transported across watersheds. In experimental trials, we found that goby eggs show resistance to physical removal (90 mN attachment strength of individual eggs) and stay attached if exposed to rapid water flow (2.8 m·s(-1)for 1 h). When exposing the eggs to air, we found that hatching success remained high (>95%) even after eggs had been out of water for up to 24 h. It is thus plausible that eggs survive pick up, within-water and overland transport by boats. We complemented the experimental plausibility tests with a survey on how decision makers from inside and outside academia rate the feasibility of managing recreational boats as vectors. We found consensus that an installation of a preventive boat vector management is considered an effective and urgent measure. This study advances our understanding of the potential of recreational boats to serve as vectors for invasive vertebrate species and demonstrates that preventive management of recreational boats is considered feasible by relevant decision makers inside and outside academia.

  7. Evaluating the public health impacts of legalizing recreational cannabis use in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Wayne; Lynskey, Michael

    2016-10-01

    Since 2012 four US states have legalized the retail sale of cannabis for recreational use by adults, and more are likely to follow. This report aimed to (1) briefly describe the regulatory regimes so far implemented; (2) outline their plausible effects on cannabis use and cannabis-related harm; and (3) suggest what research is needed to evaluate the public health impact of these policy changes. We reviewed the drug policy literature to identify: (1) plausible effects of legalizing adult recreational use on cannabis price and availability; (2) factors that may increase or limit these effects; (3) pointers from studies of the effects of legalizing medical cannabis use; and (4) indicators of cannabis use and cannabis-related harm that can be monitored to assess the effects of these policy changes. Legalization of recreational use will probably increase use in the long term, but the magnitude and timing of any increase is uncertain. It will be critical to monitor: cannabis use in household and high school surveys; cannabis sales; the number of cannabis plants legally produced; and the tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content of cannabis. Indicators of cannabis-related harms that should be monitored include: car crash fatalities and injuries; emergency department presentations; presentations to addiction treatment services; and the prevalence of regular cannabis use among young people in mental health services and the criminal justice system. Plausible effects of legalizing recreational cannabis use in the United States include substantially reducing the price of cannabis and increasing heavy use and some types of cannabis-related harm among existing users. In the longer term it may also increase the number of new users. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Female Consumers Recreational Shopping Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarbjot Singh

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examines the core meaning of intrinsic shopping to understand their experimental aspects of recreational and leisure shopping. The study focus only on female shoppers of age group ranging from 25-30, and understand their mall experiences because this segment is newly transform into self dependent segment which have less social and familial liabilities and have enough enthusiasm to explore the world or their boundaries. The Grounded theory use for identification of recreational shopping themes which are (a seeking experiences and (b experimental shopping and each have respective sub themes. The themes are connected to the key idea that shoppers are motivated by their expectations and desires. The study uses social constructivism to find and understand the shopper meanings in real terms rather than imposing and judgment on them. The findings described the way people do recreational shopping and how shopping malls use as leisure space and become facilitators of recreational shopping activities. Females use malls to fulfill their recreational and leisure shopping experiences as this is the great way of enjoying shopping for females of small towns. In malls females not only enjoy product experiences but services experiences also which makes their shopping interesting. The way the female of this age category use malls help the marketers and retailers to understand this segment shopping patterns.

  9. Flux-based transport enhancement as a plausible unifying mechanism for auxin transport in meristem development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Stoma

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Plants continuously generate new organs through the activity of populations of stem cells called meristems. The shoot apical meristem initiates leaves, flowers, and lateral meristems in highly ordered, spiralled, or whorled patterns via a process called phyllotaxis. It is commonly accepted that the active transport of the plant hormone auxin plays a major role in this process. Current hypotheses propose that cellular hormone transporters of the PIN family would create local auxin maxima at precise positions, which in turn would lead to organ initiation. To explain how auxin transporters could create hormone fluxes to distinct regions within the plant, different concepts have been proposed. A major hypothesis, canalization, proposes that the auxin transporters act by amplifying and stabilizing existing fluxes, which could be initiated, for example, by local diffusion. This convincingly explains the organised auxin fluxes during vein formation, but for the shoot apical meristem a second hypothesis was proposed, where the hormone would be systematically transported towards the areas with the highest concentrations. This implies the coexistence of two radically different mechanisms for PIN allocation in the membrane, one based on flux sensing and the other on local concentration sensing. Because these patterning processes require the interaction of hundreds of cells, it is impossible to estimate on a purely intuitive basis if a particular scenario is plausible or not. Therefore, computational modelling provides a powerful means to test this type of complex hypothesis. Here, using a dedicated computer simulation tool, we show that a flux-based polarization hypothesis is able to explain auxin transport at the shoot meristem as well, thus providing a unifying concept for the control of auxin distribution in the plant. Further experiments are now required to distinguish between flux-based polarization and other hypotheses.

  10. A plausible (overlooked) super-luminous supernova in the Sloan digital sky survey stripe 82 data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Zuzanna; Kozłowski, Szymon; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz; Djorgovski, S. George; Mahabal, Ashish A.; Glikman, Eilat; Koposov, Sergey

    2013-01-01

    We present the discovery of a plausible super-luminous supernova (SLSN), found in the archival data of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, called PSN 000123+000504. The supernova (SN) peaked at m g < 19.4 mag in the second half of 2005 September, but was missed by the real-time SN hunt. The observed part of the light curve (17 epochs) showed that the rise to the maximum took over 30 days, while the decline time lasted at least 70 days (observed frame), closely resembling other SLSNe of SN 2007bi type. The spectrum of the host galaxy reveals a redshift of z = 0.281 and the distance modulus of μ = 40.77 mag. Combining this information with the SDSS photometry, we found the host galaxy to be an LMC-like irregular dwarf galaxy with an absolute magnitude of M B = –18.2 ± 0.2 mag and an oxygen abundance of 12+log [O/H]=8.3±0.2; hence, the SN peaked at M g < –21.3 mag. Our SLSN follows the relation for the most energetic/super-luminous SNe exploding in low-metallicity environments, but we found no clear evidence for SLSNe to explode in low-luminosity (dwarf) galaxies only. The available information on the PSN 000123+000504 light curve suggests the magnetar-powered model as a likely scenario of this event. This SLSN is a new addition to a quickly growing family of super-luminous SNe.

  11. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  12. Problem solving through recreational mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Averbach, Bonnie

    1999-01-01

    Historically, many of the most important mathematical concepts arose from problems that were recreational in origin. This book takes advantage of that fact, using recreational mathematics - problems, puzzles and games - to teach students how to think critically. Encouraging active participation rather than just observation, the book focuses less on mathematical results than on how these results can be applied to thinking about problems and solving them. Each chapter contains a diverse array of problems in such areas as logic, number and graph theory, two-player games of strategy, solitaire ga

  13. Who recreates where: implications from a National Recreation Household Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh Ghimire; Gary T. Green; Neelam C. Poudyal; H. Ken Cordell

    2016-01-01

    Given the growing US population and its relatively stable supply of publicly owned forests, it seems likely that future demand for outdoor recreation will be increasingly satisfied by privately owned forests. Therefore, it becomes important to understand whether visitors to publicly and privately owned forests have different characteristics. Using data from a US...

  14. Training needs of recreation staff at recreation centres: Supervising ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study in 2008 revealed that 44% of municipal sport and recreation facilities in South Africa were reported to be poorly maintained because of the lack of necessary skills and poorly trained staff. It seems that training could be a major contributor to solving this problem. The aim of this qualitative research was to determine ...

  15. Corporate Benefits of Employee Recreation Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finney, Craig

    1984-01-01

    Employee recreation programs have been shown to reduce absenteeism, increase performance and productivity, reduce stress levels, and increase job satisfaction. Studies that present positive results of employee recreation are discussed. (DF)

  16. Recreational Assets in the State of Iowa

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — This dataset is meant to be a comprehensive database of recreational assets in public areas. Recreational assets are considered amenities provided to the public for...

  17. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  18. Recreational Games for Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, Donald

    2005-01-01

    Recreational games can be incorporated into physical education programs to encourage play and activity among students during their leisure time. Students can play their own games during recess, before or after school, during intramural programs, or in their neighborhood with family and friends. This article describes five such games namely:…

  19. Writing of water and recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda E. Kruger

    2017-01-01

    The paper presents a personal perspective on water and recreation including challenges for managers and researchers and approaches to contemporary issues. The article explores the relationship between group identify and connection to place, developed through trecreation activities, and engagement in stewardhsip and sustainability activities.

  20. Main Elements for Upscaling Recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Termansen, Mette

    2012-01-01

    -er/land use information), demographic information. The report is accom-pagnied with a spatial database for the regional case of forest recreation in Northern Zealand, Denmark. The spatial database contains forest polygons; forest attribute; estimation of total annual number of visits per site; and es...

  1. Stress Management in Correctional Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Card, Jaclyn A.

    Current economic conditions have created additional sources of stress in the correctional setting. Often, recreation professionals employed in these settings also add to inmate stress. One of the major factors limiting stress management in correctional settings is a lack of understanding of the value, importance, and perceived freedom, of leisure.…

  2. Communicating rules in recreation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terence L. Ross; George H. Moeller

    1974-01-01

    Five hundred fifty-eight campers were surveyed on the Allegheny National Forest to determine their knowledge of rules governing recreation behavior. Most of them were uninformed about the rules. Results of the study suggest that previous camping experience, age, camping style, and residence significantly affect knowledge of rules. Campers who received rule brochures or...

  3. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  4. Sustainable Development of Lithuanian Seacoast Recreational Objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Abromas

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recreational architecture is a branch of architectural activity whose main object is formation of recreational spaces (territories, buildings, complexes and equipment. The goal of recreational architecture is to create optimal (comfortable, lovely and realizable environment for all recreation types and forms. This goal is realized by projects which are based on scientific research and recommendations. This activity needs more than casual work and living environment. It needs special space and equipment: territory, water area, buildings, and rooms. Everything can be called recreational environment. Recreational environment can be of various dimensional scales: enormous seaside or lake areas intended for recreation, resorts, recreational institution complexes and many single buildings, beaches, forest parks, pools. Recreational environment is possible not only out of town but in town as well. Beginning of recreational architecture is observed in antique cultures, but as a separate specific architectural activity branch it rapidly began to spread in last century first half and in Lithuania – in the last four decades. In this work, analysis of evaluating recreational architecture is made seeking to reveal recreational architecture evaluating criteria and their use .Article in Lithuanian

  5. Modeling recreation choices over the family lifecycle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.

    2013-01-01

    Recreation decisions have traditionally been studied in tourism and leisure management. However, the topic has recently started to be studied on the transportation research field. This increasing interest in recreation travel reflects the fact that the share of recreation trips is rapidly increasing

  6. Issues in Outdoor Recreation: Second Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Clayne R., Comp.; Thorstenson, Clark T., Comp.

    This book is a compilation of selected writings on the subject of outdoor recreation. It is addressed to students specializing in recreation and resource management, and teachers, conservationists, and the public in general. Seven chapters contain articles discussing issues, facts, and concerns in the field of recreation and represent various…

  7. Approaches to measuring cultural diversity in recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chieh-Lu Li; James D. Absher; Yi-Chung Hsu; Alan R. Graefe

    2008-01-01

    Measuring cultural diversity in recreation has become an important topic because of the increasing coverage of and interest in ethnicity and cross-cultural aspects of recreation. Introducing theories and methods from established disciplines other than leisure studies/recreation and park studies is necessary to understand this important issue. In this article, we first...

  8. Recreational Value of the Baltic Sea:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne

    2018-01-01

    The Baltic Sea plays a significant role for recreational use in the nine littoral countries with more than 70% of the population visiting the coast, representing some 80 million recreation visits annually. Understanding the values associated with coastal recreation and the potential welfare chang...

  9. Dose in a recreational water park with thermal water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomassin, A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper assesses the annual effective dose received by the public due to baths in thermal water of a recreational water park in Royat (France) with significant levels of natural radionuclides. After the context be specified and the measurements of radioactivity presented, an assessment of radiological consequences is performed, based on an hypothetical scenario for persons of the public. Context The french commune of Royat in the Massif Central (centre of France) intends to build a recreational water park, using thermal water from a local source, out of the public water supply network. With this aim in view, the operator builds up a technical file to get a prefectorial authorization. Considering that many waters and thermal waters in this area have significant levels of natural radionuclides (granitic subsoil) on the one hand, and that the operator of establishments receiving public is requested by L 1333-10 article of the Public Health Code to supervise the exposure if an impact on health is possible on the other hand, the operator asked I.R.S.N. to measure the level of radioactivity in the water. Considering the level of radioactivity measured, the competent authority then asks I.R.S.N. if this level is compatible with its use in a recreational water park. After calculations it appears that in the particular case of the commune of Royat, the level of activity of natural radionuclides of the thermal water (22 Bq.L -1 for 222 Rn) is compatible with its use in a recreational water park, the annual effective dose being about 40 μSv with a conservative approach. For other thermal waters in France winch could have much higher levels of natural radioactivity, it is recommended to pay attention to their use in recreational water park. (N.C.)

  10. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence From Word Segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-11-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's cognitive plausibility. We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition model can aim to be cognitively plausible in multiple ways. We discuss these cognitive plausibility checkpoints generally and then apply them to a case study in word segmentation, investigating a promising Bayesian segmentation strategy. We incorporate cognitive plausibility by using an age-appropriate unit of perceptual representation, evaluating the model output in terms of its utility, and incorporating cognitive constraints into the inference process. Our more cognitively plausible model shows a beneficial effect of cognitive constraints on segmentation performance. One interpretation of this effect is as a synergy between the naive theories of language structure that infants may have and the cognitive constraints that limit the fidelity of their inference processes, where less accurate inference approximations are better when the underlying assumptions about how words are generated are less accurate. More generally, these results highlight the utility of incorporating cognitive plausibility more fully into computational models of language acquisition. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  11. Proceedings of the 2009 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton E. Watts; Cherie LeBlanc Fisher

    2010-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2009 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover GIS applications and recreation resource quality, meanings and measurement of recreation, climate change and resource planning, youth and outdoor recreation, urban recreation challenges, outdoor recreation--trails, human dimensions of wildlife, leisure and...

  12. Proceedings of the 1997 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans G. Vogelsong; [Editor

    1998-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 1997 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover recreation; protected areas and social science; water based recreation management studies; forest recreation management studies; outdoor recreation management studies; estimation of economic impact of recreation and tourism; place meaning and attachment; tourism studies;...

  13. Preserving the collective memory and re-creating identity through animation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carpe Pérez, Inmaculada Concepción; Pedersen, Hanne

    of the autobiographic memory and documentary through animation techniques. When we produce an animated film, we can appreciate how the creation of characters and scenarios are transformed into visual metaphors, making possible the re-creation of past moments or the simulation of possible ones. We experience, thanks...

  14. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  15. An Ecosystem Approach to Recreation Location Quotients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Vogel

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread agreement on the importance of preserving ecological integrity in conservation and outdoor recreation decision-making processes, traditional metrics analyzing the supply of and demand for conservation and recreation resources have focused on geographical and population-centric units of measurement rather than ecological ones. One tool past researchers have used to inform recreation resource planning is the recreation location quotient (RLQ. While simple park-to-population ratios or acres-per-capita metrics provide a base measure of carrying capacity and are often useful to set broad recreation supply standards, the RLQ offers a more nuanced snapshot of supply and demand by comparing regional ratios to a standardized reference region. The RLQ is thus able to provide a statistic or quotient that highlights regions where recreation resources are particularly abundant and/or scarce relative to a reference area. This project expands the past RLQ analyses by investigating the distribution of recreation resources across the 10 ecological sections found within the US state of Minnesota. RLQs were calculated using recreation trail mileage, natural resource and recreation area acreage data, and recreation facility data from federal, state, and local agencies. Results found notable differences in supply of recreation resources across ecological sections. Some sections were considerably underrepresented in recreation resources-per area (e.g., Red River Valley and North Central Glaciated Plains while others were underrepresented in recreation resources-per capita (e.g., Minnesota and Northeast Iowa Morainal. The RLQ statistics and resulting maps illustrating relative surplus or deficiencies can inform future land acquisition decisions and highlight the need for cross-jurisdictional planning in order to ensure outdoor recreation systems are ecologically representative. Possible implications and recommendations for future planning

  16. Expanding Aquatic Observations through Recreation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J. W. Brewin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate observations of the Earth system are required to understand how our planet is changing and to help manage its resources. The aquatic environment—including lakes, rivers, wetlands, estuaries, coastal and open oceans—is a fundamental component of the Earth system controlling key physical, biological, and chemical processes that allow life to flourish. Yet, this environment is critically undersampled in both time and space. New and cost-effective sampling solutions are urgently needed. Here, we highlight the potential to improve aquatic sampling by tapping into recreation. We draw attention to the vast number of participants that engage in aquatic recreational activities and argue, based on current technological developments and recent research, that the time is right to employ recreational citizens to improve large-scale aquatic sampling efforts. We discuss the challenges that need to be addressed for this strategy to be successful (e.g., sensor integration, data quality, and citizen motivation, the steps needed to realize its potential, and additional societal benefits that arise when engaging citizens in scientific sampling.

  17. Recreation as a reinforcer: increasing membership and decreasing disruptions in an urban recreation centre1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Charles H.; Risley, Todd R.

    1974-01-01

    It is presumed that recreation activities have a variety of functions for people, from tension reduction to citizenship development; however, a recreation activity's most empirically obvious function is as a reinforcer. This study demonstrates how two recurrent problems of urban recreation programs—recruitment of members and reduction of disruptive behaviors within the program—can be handled simply by contingently adjusting the amount of time the recreation activities are available. When extra time in the recreation center was provided to those youths who brought new members, dramatic increases in membership were achieved. On the other hand, when the closing time for each evening's recreation program was publicly moved forward by a few minutes for each offense, disruptive behaviors were nearly eliminated. Recreation used as a reinforcer can thus improve the basic operation of a recreation center and might similarly enhance other presumed and desired functions of recreation. PMID:16795471

  18. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  19. Stereotyping to infer group membership creates plausible deniability for prejudice-based aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, William T L; Devine, Patricia G

    2014-02-01

    In the present study, participants administered painful electric shocks to an unseen male opponent who was either explicitly labeled as gay or stereotypically implied to be gay. Identifying the opponent with a gay-stereotypic attribute produced a situation in which the target's group status was privately inferred but plausibly deniable to others. To test the plausible deniability hypothesis, we examined aggression levels as a function of internal (personal) and external (social) motivation to respond without prejudice. Whether plausible deniability was present or absent, participants high in internal motivation aggressed at low levels, and participants low in both internal and external motivation aggressed at high levels. The behavior of participants low in internal and high in external motivation, however, depended on experimental condition. They aggressed at low levels when observers could plausibly attribute their behavior to prejudice and aggressed at high levels when the situation granted plausible deniability. This work has implications for both obstacles to and potential avenues for prejudice-reduction efforts.

  20. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  1. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  2. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  3. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  4. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  5. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  7. A virtue analysis of recreational marijuana use

    OpenAIRE

    Sullivan, Ezra; Austriaco, Nicanor

    2016-01-01

    Several empirical studies suggest that recreational marijuana is popularly perceived as an essentially harmless rite of passage that ends as young people settle into their careers and their adult intimate relationships. Is this perception accurate? To answer this question, we evaluate the morality of recreational marijuana use from a virtue perspective guided by the theological synthesis of St. Thomas Aquinas. Since the medical data reveals that recreational marijuana use is detrimental to th...

  8. Community-based recreational football

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ditte Marie; Bjerre, Eik; Krustrup, Peter

    2014-01-01

    is limited and the majority of prostate cancer survivors remain sedentary. Hence, novel approaches to evaluate and promote physical activity are warranted. This paper presents the rationale behind the delivery and evaluation of community-based recreational football offered in existing football clubs under...... the Danish Football Association to promote quality of life and physical activity adherence in prostate cancer survivors. The RE-AIM framework will be applied to evaluate the impact of the intervention including outcomes both at the individual and organizational level. By introducing community-based sport...

  9. Outdoor recreation in forest policy and legislation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, Carsten; Pouta, Eija; Gentin, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    in the field of outdoor recreation, and reveal similarities, differences, gaps and future needs. Among the main findings is a contradiction between the expressed political importance of outdoor recreation at the national level, and the absence of binding commitments for action. The majority of the countries...... surveyed recognise and express outdoor recreation in some form of political and/or legislative way. However, recreation monitoring or measurements are rarely mentioned in relevant policies or acts at the national, regional or local level, perhaps due to a l ack of political will or resources. The analysis...

  10. Sira Nights as a Recreational Tourism Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Barakazı, Mahmut; Önçel, Sibel

    2017-01-01

    In terms of culture, art and gastronomy, Urfa sira nights are the basis for an important recreational activity. Recreational activities in these regions provide tourism awareness, as well as the benefits of introducing local Urfa cuisine, which is very rich in culinary culture, and Gastronomy leads to the recognition of tourism in the region. The aim of this research is to encourage recreational activities by promoting recreational activities such as Urfa sira 'nights' effects on ga...

  11. Proceedings of the 2003 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, comp., ed. Murdy; ed. comp.

    2004-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 2003 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover planning issues, communications and information, management presentations, service quality and outdoor recreation, recreation behavior, founders? forum, featured posters, tourism and the community, specialized recreation, recreation and the community, management issues in...

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  13. A comparison of recreation conflict factors for different water-based recreation activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng-Ping Wang; Chad P. Dawson

    2001-01-01

    Previous studies point out recreation conflict may be affected by recreation goals, resource specificity, activity style, mode of experience, lifestyle tolerance, norms, problems perceived, visitor values and conflict sensitivity. However, people engaging in single or multiple activities may have different patterns when considering recreation conflict. A study of...

  14. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence from Word Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

  15. High School Students' Evaluations, Plausibility (Re) Appraisals, and Knowledge about Topics in Earth Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Bickel, Elliot S.; Bailey, Janelle M.; Burrell, Shondricka

    2018-01-01

    Evaluation is an important aspect of science and is receiving increasing attention in science education. The present study investigated (1) changes to plausibility judgments and knowledge as a result of a series of instructional scaffolds, called model-evidence link activities, that facilitated evaluation of scientific and alternative models in…

  16. Preview Effects of Plausibility and Character Order in Reading Chinese Transposed Words: Evidence from Eye Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jinmian

    2013-01-01

    The current paper examined the role of plausibility information in the parafovea for Chinese readers by using two-character transposed words (in which the order of the component characters is reversed but are still words). In two eye-tracking experiments, readers received a preview of a target word that was (1) identical to the target word, (2) a…

  17. The Radical Promise of Reformist Zeal: What Makes "Inquiry for Equity" Plausible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lashaw, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    Education reform movements often promise more than they deliver. Why are such promises plausible in light of seemingly perpetual education reform? Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork based in a nonprofit education reform organization, this article explores the appeal of popular notions about "using data to close the racial achievement…

  18. Recreating the World(s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giseli do Prado Siqueira

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Created in 2007 , the project extension Itinerant Workshops : recreating the world ( s of the Catholic University of Minas Gerais , Campus Poços de Caldas is an inseparable experience in research of teaching and extension. With this title " recreating worlds " seek to express the experience that has been possible for us to live over the years of execution of this project . Our experience is theoretically referenced by understanding that German thinkers Meister Eckhart (1260-1327 and Martin Heidegger (1889-1976 shows us about what is the man in they on existence. Such an understanding is expressed in the phenomenon of serenity ( Gelassenheit , let it be understood as simply what we are . Our research on this phenomenon Gelassenheit (Serenity , guide the relationships we establish with the external community , where we understand that the existence of man in his essential condition , is a shared existence. The other is imposed on us and we never fail to be sympathetic to their fears and anxieties , because these same fears and anxieties are also ours possibilities . This relationship of consideration makes us all ( teachers , students , community solidarity in our existential angst before the unexpected, the unknown . It is when we can see ourselves through another , in what we truly are and can be.

  19. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  20. Does Zoning Winter Recreationists Reduce Recreation Conflict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aubrey D.; Vaske, Jerry J.; Squires, John R.; Olson, Lucretia E.; Roberts, Elizabeth K.

    2017-01-01

    Parks and protected area managers use zoning to decrease interpersonal conflict between recreationists. Zoning, or segregation, of recreation—often by non-motorized and motorized activity—is designed to limit physical interaction while providing recreation opportunities to both groups. This article investigated the effectiveness of zoning to reduce recreation conflict in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area in Colorado, USA. Despite a zoning management system, established groomed travel routes were used by both non-motorized recreationists (backcountry skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers) and motorized recreationists (snowmobilers). We hypothesized that persistent recreation conflict reported by non-motorized recreationists was the result of recreation occurring in areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use, mostly along groomed routes. We performed a geospatial analysis of recreation [from Global Positioning System (GPS) points, n = 1,233,449] in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area to identify areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use. We then surveyed non-motorized recreationists ( n = 199) to test whether reported conflict is higher for respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with respondents traveling outside areas of mixed-use. Results from the geospatial analysis showed that only 0.7 % of the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area contained recreation from both groups, however that area contained 14.8 % of all non-motorized recreation and 49.1 % of all motorized recreation. Survey analysis results showed higher interpersonal conflict for all five standard conflict variables among non-motorized respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with those traveling outside mixed-use areas. Management implications and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of zoning are provided.

  1. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  2. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  3. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  4. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  5. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    reliance on road transportation, centralized power systems, etc. It is no surprise that with such an assumption, the absolute decoupling of growth and CO 2 emissions demands a rapidly increasing value of carbon in the economy. After many fruitful discussions between industry representatives and researchers, these scenarios have been corrected and finalized in September 2007. A brief explanation of the adjustments introduced is included in the report. The second part of the report was written in September 2008. After the first two scenarios, it was agreed to investigate the simulation of a 'non-mimetic' scenario, which would take into consideration significant shifts or mutations in the development styles and in land planning.. In this scenario, the two models involved have been forced by exogenous assumptions on development bifurcations made by ENERDATA. Discussions within the steering committee made clear that two assumptions were critical to the plausibility of the two mitigation scenarios: (i) Timely acceptance and massive deployment of certain technologies such as carbon capture and storage and nuclear power; (ii) No-delay adoption of ambitious climate policies by all emerging and developing countries (before 2020). In order to challenge these two assumptions, two additional sensitivity scenarios were produced: the first one built on the assumption that carbon capture and storage would not be available before 2030, the second delaying the efforts of non-Annex B countries to 2025. (authors)

  6. A behavioral intervention tool for recreation managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.M. Burn; P.L. Winter

    2008-01-01

    Depreciative behaviors and other undesirable recreationist actions continue to be a topic of great interest for recreation management (fig. 1). Maintaining park ecosystems involves responding to and preventing damage from depreciative recreationist behavior, and recreation managers are charged with developing and selecting eff ective tools to address the costly and...

  7. United States of America: outdoor recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H.Ken Cordell; G.Theodore Green; V.R. Leeworthy; R. Stephens; M.J. Fly; Carter J. Betz

    2005-01-01

    the first nationwide survey of outdoor recreation in the USA was conducted in 1960 for the outdoor recreation resources review commission (ORRC, 1962; Cordell et al., 1996). since that time, seven additional national surveys have been conducted, in 1965, 1970, 1972, 1977, 1983, 1995, and 2000/01 - summary details are presented in Table 16.1.

  8. Sustainability in outdoor recreation and tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Winter; Kelly Bricker; Jeremy Schultz

    2013-01-01

    Outdoor recreation and tourism represents a major service by which the public identifies with and better understands natural resources, even to the extent that it can foster environmental stewardship (for example, see Winter and Chavez 2008). Yet, myriad threats to recreation and tourism exist which need to be addressed. Addressing these threats can be...

  9. EXETRA Perspectives: Concepts in Therapeutic Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Larry L.; Edginton, Christopher R.

    Fifteen papers address issues in therapeutic recreation for disabled persons from the perspectives of practitioners, educators, and students. The following papers are presented. "Therapeutic Recreation Service: The Past and Challenging Present" (H. Sessoms); "Therapeutic Recreatiion in an Era of Limits: A Crisis...A Challenge... An Opportunity"…

  10. From recreational to regular drug use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Järvinen, Margaretha; Ravn, Signe

    2011-01-01

    This article analyses the process of going from recreational use to regular and problematic use of illegal drugs. We present a model containing six career contingencies relevant for young people’s progress from recreational to regular drug use: the closing of social networks, changes in forms...

  11. UNBC: Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Pat

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the University of Northern British Columbia's (UNBC's) Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management (ORTM) Program, which focuses squarely on the management of outdoor recreation as it relates to conservation (i.e., in and around parks and protected areas), tourism that is both based in and concerned with the natural/cultural…

  12. Solid Waste Management in Recreational Forest Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spooner, Charles S.

    The Forest Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture, requested the Bureau of Solid Waste Management to conduct a study of National Forest recreation areas to establish waste generation rates for major recreation activities and to determine the cost of solid waste handling for selected Forest Service Districts. This report describes the 1968 solid…

  13. The changing faces of forest recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Kling

    2009-01-01

    Management of national forest recreation has long focused on the needs and habits of White visitors because this traditionally has been the largest group. That is changing all over the country, but nowhere more than in southern California. Here, social scientists are studying the needs and recreation patterns of Latino visitors to better understand this rapidly growing...

  14. Bacteriological physicochemical quality of recreational water bodies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    tinsae

    logical quality, and there are no guidelines (standards) towards the safe use and quality control of recreational water. Under this circumstances, it is neither possible to know the gravity of the problem, nor simple to manage the possible health related risks that are associated with the use of recreational water bodies.

  15. Minimizing conflict between recreation and nature conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    1993-01-01

    Most greenways are created with multiple goals in mind. Two of the foremost are providing recreational opportunities and conserving nature. Although these two goals frequently enhance each other, sometimes pursuing both simultaneously can result in conflicts. In some cases, recreational use can so severely degrade an area that not only is the environment damaged but...

  16. Indirect effects of recreation on wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole; Peter B. Landres

    1995-01-01

    Most of this book focuses on direct impacts to wildlife that result from contact with people. The purpose of our chapter is to provide a broad overview of the indirect influences that recreation has on wildlife. Recreational activities can change the habitat of an animal. This, in turn, affects the behavior, survival, reproduction, and distribution of individuals....

  17. Impact of Collegiate Recreation on Academic Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Heather; DeRousie, Jason; Guistwite, Nicole

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the impact of collegiate recreation participation on academic success as measured by grade point average, course credit completion, and persistence or graduation. Logistic and multiple regressions were run to explore the relationship between total recreation contact hours and outcome variables. Results indicated a positive and…

  18. Measuring use value from recreation participation: comment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B.K. English; J. Michael Bowker

    1994-01-01

    In a recent article in this Journal, Whitehead (1 992) presents a method for estimating annual economic surplus for recreation trips to a natural resource site based on whether an individual participates in recreation at that site. Whitehead proposes his method as an alternative to the traditional two-stage travel cost approach. We contend that Whitehead's method...

  19. Your Recreation Dollar. [Revised.] Money Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Nancy H., Ed.; Tarrant, Sharon M., Ed.

    This booklet on recreation, 1 in a series of 12, covers all the basic aspects of personal- and family-money management. Suitable for use by high school and college students as well as adults, this handbook suggests ways to plan recreation expenses for special activities, equipment, and vacation travel. Section 1 looks at the need for recreation…

  20. 77 FR 36250 - Recreation Resource Advisory Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-18

    ..., Non-motorized Outfitter and Guide Recreation, Local Environmental, State Tourism, Local Government...: a. A State tourism official to represent the State; b. A person who represents affected Indian... and per diem expenses for regularly scheduled committee meetings. All Recreation RAC meetings are open...

  1. 18 CFR 801.10 - Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... is extensive. Swimming, fishing, boating, and other water oriented activities have regional and local economic benefit as well as recreational benefit. (b) The Commission shall cooperate with public and... programs and projects within the basin and shall: (1) Promote public access to and recreational use of...

  2. The Influence of Building Codes on Recreation Facility Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Thomas A.

    1989-01-01

    Implications of building codes upon design and construction of recreation facilities are investigated (national building codes, recreation facility standards, and misperceptions of design requirements). Recreation professionals can influence architectural designers to correct past deficiencies, but they must understand architectural and…

  3. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  4. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  5. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  6. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  7. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  8. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  9. From information processing to decisions: Formalizing and comparing psychologically plausible choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heck, Daniel W; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

    2017-08-01

    Decision strategies explain how people integrate multiple sources of information to make probabilistic inferences. In the past decade, increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to determine which strategy explains decision behavior best. We extend these efforts to test psychologically more plausible models (i.e., strategies), including a new, probabilistic version of the take-the-best (TTB) heuristic that implements a rank order of error probabilities based on sequential processing. Within a coherent statistical framework, deterministic and probabilistic versions of TTB and other strategies can directly be compared using model selection by minimum description length or the Bayes factor. In an experiment with inferences from given information, only three of 104 participants were best described by the psychologically plausible, probabilistic version of TTB. Similar as in previous studies, most participants were classified as users of weighted-additive, a strategy that integrates all available information and approximates rational decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Epidemiologic studies of occupational pesticide exposure and cancer: regulatory risk assessments and biologic plausibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acquavella, John; Doe, John; Tomenson, John; Chester, Graham; Cowell, John; Bloemen, Louis

    2003-01-01

    Epidemiologic studies frequently show associations between self-reported use of specific pesticides and human cancers. These findings have engendered debate largely on methodologic grounds. However, biologic plausibility is a more fundamental issue that has received only superficial attention. The purpose of this commentary is to review briefly the toxicology and exposure data that are developed as part of the pesticide regulatory process and to discuss the applicability of this data to epidemiologic research. The authors also provide a generic example of how worker pesticide exposures might be estimated and compared to relevant toxicologic dose levels. This example provides guidance for better characterization of exposure and for consideration of biologic plausibility in epidemiologic studies of pesticides.

  11. Of paradox and plausibility: the dynamic of change in medical law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, John

    2014-01-01

    This article develops a model of change in medical law. Drawing on systems theory, it argues that medical law participates in a dynamic of 'deparadoxification' and 'reparadoxification' whereby the underlying contingency of the law is variously concealed through plausible argumentation, or revealed by critical challenge. Medical law is, thus, thoroughly rhetorical. An examination of the development of the law on abortion and on the sterilization of incompetent adults shows that plausibility is achieved through the deployment of substantive common sense and formal stylistic devices. It is undermined where these elements are shown to be arbitrary and constructed. In conclusion, it is argued that the politics of medical law are constituted by this antagonistic process of establishing and challenging provisionally stable normative regimes. © The Author [2014]. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  13. Assessment of tourism and recreation destinations under climate change conditions in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Haemmerle, Martin [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Endler, Christina [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Research Center Human Biometeorology, Freiburg (Germany). German Weather Service; Muthers, Stefan [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics; Bern Univ. (Switzerland). Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research; Koch, Elisabeth [Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamcis, Vienna (Austria)

    2012-04-15

    Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Based on the observation network of the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics of Austria (ZAMG), data of 37 stations has been collected and analysed for tourism and recreation purposes. The analysis was based on long term data sets which were processed in relevant ways for tourism and recreation, resulting in frequency diagrams of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and precipitation. Additionally, we prepared the results according to the demands of tourism and recreation authorities and industry using the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). Applying data from the regional climate models REMO and CLM we can provide information on future climate conditions in Austria's recreation areas. We chose two different time slices (2021-2050, 2071-2100) and IPCC emission scenarios (A1B, B1). The data was processed based on the threshold factors which are included in the CTIS (e.g. thermal comfort, heat stress, cold stress, sunshine, etc.). For the time slice 2021-2050 only moderate changes can be expected. But for 2071-2100 one can observe a distinct decrease of cold stress and the skiing potential. On the other hand, moderate increases of thermal comfort, heat stress, sultriness and sunshine are expected. No tendencies can be seen in precipitation and wind conditions. (orig.)

  14. L’Analyse du Risque Géopolitique: du Plausible au Probable

    OpenAIRE

    Adib Bencherif

    2015-01-01

    This paper is going to explore the logical process behind risk analysis, particularly in geopolitics. The main goal is to demonstrate the ambiguities behind risk calculation and to highlight the continuum between plausibility and probability in risk analysis. To demonstrate it, the author introduces two notions: the inference of abduction, often neglected in the social sciences literature, and the Bayesian calculation. Inspired by the works of Louise Amoore, this paper tries to go further by ...

  15. Resolution of cosmological singularity and a plausible mechanism of the big bang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, D.C.

    2002-01-01

    The initial cosmological singularity in the framework of the general theory of relativity is resolved by introducing the effect of the uncertainty principle of quantum theory without violating conventional laws of physics. A plausible account of the mechanism of the big bang, analogous to that of a nuclear explosion, is given and the currently accepted Planck temperature of ≅10 32 K at the beginning of the big bang is predicted

  16. A comparison of anthropometric and training characteristics between recreational female marathoners and recreational female Ironman triathletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Rosemann, Thomas

    2013-02-28

    A personal best marathon time has been reported as a strong predictor variable for an Ironman race time in recreational female Ironman triathletes. This raises the question whether recreational female Ironman triathletes are similar to recreational female marathoners. We investigated similarities and differences in anthropometry and training between 53 recreational female Ironman triathletes and 46 recreational female marathoners. The association of anthropometric variables and training characteristics with race time was investigated using bi- and multi-variate analysis. The Ironman triathletes were younger (P marathoners. Overall weekly training hours were higher in the Ironman triathletes (P marathoners (P marathon split time for the Ironman triathletes (P = 0.01) and to marathon race time for the marathoners (P = 0.01). To conclude, although personal best marathon time is a strong predictor variable for performance in recreational female Ironman triathletes, there are differences in both anthropometry and training between recreational female Ironman triathletes and recreational female marathoners and different predictor variables for race performance in these two groups of athletes. These findings suggest that recreational female Ironman triathletes are not comparable to recreational female marathoners regarding the association between anthropometric and training characteristics with race time.

  17. Recreational drugs. Societal and professional issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solari-Twadell, P A

    1991-06-01

    Recreational drug use presents a challenge to society and, in particular, the profession of nursing. Recreational drug use must be appreciated for the implications it presents for the episodes of abuse and development of chronic health problems. The effects and recreational use of volatile substances, cannabis, opioids, barbiturates, benzodiazepines, amphetamines, cocaine, psychedelics, and designer drugs as well as alcohol, caffeine, and nicotine must be acknowledged and understood if options for change are to be considered. The resultant cost of recreational drug use as well as health care implications, public safety, and prevention are significant issues society is faced with today. These issues will continue to be significant unless the current posture toward recreational drug use and abuse is addressed. The profession of nursing continues to be faced with the problems associated with recreational drug use not only through caring for clients, but immediately by the effects of recreational drug use on individual professional nurses. To respond effectively, nursing education and nursing research must be challenged to create an emphasis on this focus. Only through this type of multifocal approach will long-term substantial change be affected for the betterment of future generations.

  18. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  19. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  20. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  1. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  2. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  3. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  4. National Marine Recreational Fishing Expenditure Survey 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Marine recreational fishing is a popular pastime across the United States that generates significant economic impacts to both local economies and to the nation. In...

  5. National Marine Recreational Fishing Expenditure Survey 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Marine recreational fishing is a popular pastime across the United States that generates significant economic impacts to both local economies and to the nation. In...

  6. A Conceptual Approach to Recreation Habitat Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hamilton, H. R

    1996-01-01

    .... The Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) is a commonly used technique for assessing human impacts on the vigor of wildlife species, and serves as the model for the Recreation Habitat Analysis Method (RHAM...

  7. Crew Health And Recreation Gear Exercise Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This technology is to replace the bulky, high maintenance exercise devices (as used currently in the ISS) for long duration missions. A novel exercise and recreation...

  8. Federal outdoor recreation trends: effects on economic opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric White; J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Linda L. Langner; J. Ross Arnold; Donald B.K. English

    2016-01-01

    Outdoor recreation is a central way that people interact with the natural environment. Federal land agencies are key providers of settings, facilities, and landscapes for recreation. Outdoor recreation is also an important driver of economic activity in rural communities near recreation destinations and across the United States. Future participation in outdoor...

  9. Proceedings of the 2006 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Burns; K., comps. Robinson

    2007-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2006 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and gender, recreation resource allocation, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, tourism impacts, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure...

  10. Motivations and sensation seeking characteristics of recreational storm chasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuangyu Xu; Sonja Wilhelm Stanis; Carla Barbieri; Jiawen. Chen

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about recreational storm chasing, a type of risk recreation that has increased in popularity since the 1990s. This study was conducted to understand factors associated with participation in recreational storm chasing in the United States. Particularly, this study assessed the motivations and sensation seeking attributes of recreational storm chasers, as...

  11. Proceedings of the 2007 northeastern recreation research symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherie LeBlanc; Christine, comps. Vogt

    2008-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2007 northeastern recreation research symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and gender, recreation resource allocation, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, tourism impacts, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure...

  12. Predicting quantitative and qualitative values of recreation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood L., Jr. Shafer; George Moeller

    1971-01-01

    If future recreation consumption and associated intangible values can be predicted, the problem of rapid decision making in recreation-resource management can be reduced, and the problems of implementing those decisions can be anticipated. Management and research responsibilities for meeting recreation demand are discussed, and proved methods for forecasting recreation...

  13. Proceedings of the 2008 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. Klenosky; Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; eds.

    2009-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2008 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and gender, recreation resource allocation, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, tourism impacts, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure...

  14. The Main Recreative Areas in Podujeva Municipality

    OpenAIRE

    , F. Isufi; , F. Humolli; , S. Bulliqi

    2016-01-01

    Recreation is time available to human kind, excluding normal working hours that are a time for physiological and physical needs of human kind and time for sleep, which is used for entertainment, sport, hobby, rest etc. Well known fact is that recreation is a need of contemporary man, which is at the same time the reason for elaborating this subject. Podujeva Municipality is one of Republic of Kosova’s municipality, and likewise all other municipalities, offer possibilities and have similar pr...

  15. Burden of arrhythmia in recreational marijuana users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Rupak; Patel, Upenkumar; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Sachdeva, Rajesh; Kumar, Gautam

    2018-03-27

    Marijuana or Cannabis is extensively used as a recreational substance globally. Case reports have reported cardiac arrhythmias immediately following recreational marijuana use. However, the burden of arrhythmias in hospitalized marijuana users have not been evaluated through prospective or cross-sectional studies. Therefore, we planned to measure temporal trends of the frequency of arrhythmias in hospitalized marijuana users using National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database in the United States. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Region Tourist and Recreation Complex Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizaveta Oyusovna Tappaskhanova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the research is the tourist and recreation complex of Kabardino-Balkar Republic. The purpose of the work is to provide solutions to problems of the republic tourist and recreation complex development. The results obtained from the study showed that in spite of the fact that in the region’s development certain positive steps are taken, according to the indicators of the tourism and recreation development, the region has not reach the level of the 1990th yet, the possibilities of this major sector of the republic economy remain not demanded. It is highlighted, that the most important factor in the tourist and recreation complex development is its infrastructure condition. It is recommended to use the model of the infrastructure management aimed at providing its effective functioning and development due to formation of interaction system at every power level through a network of the centers of the tourist and recreation complex development. In the article, the need for the use of the innovative approaches for the republic tourist and recreation complex development in the particular development of the new tourist directions are also found. For the purpose to improve the professional training of personnel for the tourism and recreation sphere, the need for a transition to multilevel training of personnel is proved. The main directions of the republic image development on the basis of designing and implementing of the regional program of its image development as the tourist territory and creation of the tourist information center are defined. Realization of all these problems allows to develop a highly effective and competitive tourist and recreation complex in Kabardino-Balkaria.

  17. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  18. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  19. Recreational function of Middle Pomeranian forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Parzych

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the study was the description of the recreational function of the State Forests in the Central Pomerania area.  An analysis of the recreational potential of the State Forests in 11 poviats of Central Pomerani a was conducted, with an indication of the main forms of tourism and recreation. The development of the area  of Central Pomerania State Forests from the point of view of forms of tourism and recreation that could  be implemented in their area was also analyzed. As the source material was used to query the resources of the website www.czaswlas.pl. and individual field observations. Analysis of the obtained results indicates  the important role of tourism and recreation infrastructure in the management of the Central Pomeranian State Forest’s  area. At the same time, there are large spatial disparities in the distribution of particular elements  of tourist and recreational infrastructure. The areas of the State Forests of the poviats are the best ones: bytowski, drawski, słupski and szczecinecki, the least urban poviats of Slupsk and Koszalin, białogardzki, and sławieński

  20. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  1. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  2. Evaluation of Accommodation Companies Recreation Activities in İstanbul

    OpenAIRE

    Aslı ALBAYRAK

    2012-01-01

    Recreation activities represent quality of company, image and attractiveness for both staying guests and day use guests. At the same time recreation can be important income source for accommodation companies. This study investigate the web page of 82 five star accommodation company in Istanbul from the side of recreation activities. At the end of the study find that most of accommodation company don't have in place recreation activities, recreation tab and representation about activities in t...

  3. A biologically plausible transform for visual recognition that is invariant to translation, scale and rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel eSountsov

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Visual object recognition occurs easily despite differences in position, size, and rotation of the object, but the neural mechanisms responsible for this invariance are not known. We have found a set of transforms that achieve invariance in a neurally plausible way. We find that a transform based on local spatial frequency analysis of oriented segments and on logarithmic mapping, when applied twice in an iterative fashion, produces an output image that is unique to the object and that remains constant as the input image is shifted, scaled or rotated.

  4. A Biologically Plausible Transform for Visual Recognition that is Invariant to Translation, Scale, and Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sountsov, Pavel; Santucci, David M; Lisman, John E

    2011-01-01

    Visual object recognition occurs easily despite differences in position, size, and rotation of the object, but the neural mechanisms responsible for this invariance are not known. We have found a set of transforms that achieve invariance in a neurally plausible way. We find that a transform based on local spatial frequency analysis of oriented segments and on logarithmic mapping, when applied twice in an iterative fashion, produces an output image that is unique to the object and that remains constant as the input image is shifted, scaled, or rotated.

  5. Resolution of Cosmological Singularity and a Plausible Mechanism of the Big Bang

    OpenAIRE

    Choudhury, D. C.

    2001-01-01

    The initial cosmological singularity in the framework of the general theory of relativity is resolved by introducing the effect of the uncertainty principle of quantum theory without violating conventional laws of physics. A plausible account of the mechanism of the big bang, analogous to that of a nuclear explosion, is given and the currently accepted Planck temperature of about 10^(32)K at the beginning of the big bang is predicted. Subj-class: cosmology: theory-pre-big bang; mechanism of t...

  6. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  7. CHARACTERISTICS OF SPORTS RECREATIONAL TOURISM IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjen Jovović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Basic for realization of tourist movements lays in meeting cultural and recreational needs of potential customers. If we know that largest number of tourists represents part of recreational ones, than is not hard to realize how large potential lays in that number of potential guests. On this fact should be built strategy of movement of tourist offer of Montenegro for it extreme potentials on which can be founded concrete project. In this work are given basic assumptions for development of sport recreational shapes of tourism with stress to natural potentials that directly determine shape of sport recreational activities that represent basis of tourist offer. Offer should be created in that way that it is adapted to wide segment of recreational guests and not professional sportsmen, although they also should not be underestimated but one should know that in order to create conditions for arrival of sports professionals offer has to be completely different and more specialized that requires creating of conditions of existence of highly developed sports infrastructure, while for amateurs a lot can be done in “system of improvising”, satisfying basic criteria – recreation in conditions of untouched and well preserved nature with securing maximal level of security and protection of guests, in order to prevent possible unwilling consequences that can lead to injury of guests and for development and realization of such project one need a much less funds than is building of facilities that should meet standards of professional sportsmen. The aim is to create good offer at good infrastructure, logistics and with good equipment with securing maximal security, adaptation to various wishes of guests, taking in consideration their structure is conditioned by age, health condition, physical fitness as personal wishes toward sports and recreational activities.

  8. Recreation visitor preferences for and perceptions of outdoor recreation setting attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Tarrant; Erin Smith; H. Ken Cordell

    1999-01-01

    Between 1990 and 1994, a comprehensive national survey was conducted by the USDA Forest Service (FS), Southern Research Station, to measure visitor preferences for, and perceptions of, setting attributes at a variety of outdoor recreation sites. Over 11,000 visitors at 31 outdoor recreation sites across the country were interviewed in this study. The study was entitled...

  9. River recreation experience opportunities in two recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS) classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duane C. Wollmuth; John H. Schomaker; Lawrence C. Merriam

    1985-01-01

    The Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) system is used by the USDA Forest Service and USDI Bureau of Land Management for inventorying, classifying, and managing wildlands for recreation. Different ROS classes from the Colorado and Arkansas Rivers in Colorado were compared, using visitor survey data collected in 1979 and 1981, to see if the different classes offered...

  10. Modeling large-scale winter recreation terrain selection with implications for recreation management and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia E. Olson; John R. Squires; Elizabeth K. Roberts; Aubrey D. Miller; Jacob S. Ivan; Mark Hebblewhite

    2017-01-01

    Winter recreation is a rapidly growing activity, and advances in technology make it possible for increasing numbers of people to access remote backcountry terrain. Increased winter recreation may lead to more frequent conflict between recreationists, as well as greater potential disturbance to wildlife. To better understand the environmental characteristics favored by...

  11. Recreation studied from above : airphoto interpretation as input into land evaluation for recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.

    1992-01-01

    Recreation and tourism are of growing importance not only in the industrialized part of the world, but also In developing countries. Remote sensing and in particular airphoto interpretation can be used in several ways as input into land evaluation for recreation and tourism. An inventory of

  12. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  13. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  14. The Sarrazin effect: the presence of absurd statements in conspiracy theories makes canonical information less plausible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Marius Hans; Auer, Nikolas; Ortlieb, Stefan A; Carbon, Claus-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Reptile prime ministers and flying Nazi saucers-extreme and sometimes off-wall conclusion are typical ingredients of conspiracy theories. While individual differences are a common research topic concerning conspiracy theories, the role of extreme statements in the process of acquiring and passing on conspiratorial stories has not been regarded in an experimental design so far. We identified six morphological components of conspiracy theories empirically. On the basis of these content categories a set of narrative elements for a 9/11 story was compiled. These elements varied systematically in terms of conspiratorial allegation, i.e., they contained official statements concerning the events of 9/11, statements alleging to a conspiracy limited in time and space as well as extreme statements indicating an all-encompassing cover-up. Using the method of narrative construction, 30 people were given a set of cards with these statements and asked to construct the course of events of 9/11 they deem most plausible. When extreme statements were present in the set, the resulting stories were more conspiratorial; the number of official statements included in the narrative dropped significantly, whereas the self-assessment of the story's plausibility did not differ between conditions. This indicates that blatant statements in a pool of information foster the synthesis of conspiracy theories on an individual level. By relating these findings to one of Germany's most successful (and controversial) non-fiction books, we refer to the real-world dangers of this effect.

  15. Neural correlates of early-closure garden-path processing: Effects of prosody and plausibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Ouden, Dirk-Bart; Dickey, Michael Walsh; Anderson, Catherine; Christianson, Kiel

    2016-01-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was used to investigate neural correlates of early-closure garden-path sentence processing and use of extrasyntactic information to resolve temporary syntactic ambiguities. Sixteen participants performed an auditory picture verification task on sentences presented with natural versus flat intonation. Stimuli included sentences in which the garden-path interpretation was plausible, implausible because of a late pragmatic cue, or implausible because of a semantic mismatch between an optionally transitive verb and the following noun. Natural sentence intonation was correlated with left-hemisphere temporal activation, but also with activation that suggests the allocation of more resources to interpretation when natural prosody is provided. Garden-path processing was associated with upregulation in bilateral inferior parietal and right-hemisphere dorsolateral prefrontal and inferior frontal cortex, while differences between the strength and type of plausibility cues were also reflected in activation patterns. Region of interest (ROI) analyses in regions associated with complex syntactic processing are consistent with a role for posterior temporal cortex supporting access to verb argument structure. Furthermore, ROI analyses within left-hemisphere inferior frontal gyrus suggest a division of labour, with the anterior-ventral part primarily involved in syntactic-semantic mismatch detection, the central part supporting structural reanalysis, and the posterior-dorsal part showing a general structural complexity effect.

  16. A swarm intelligence framework for reconstructing gene networks: searching for biologically plausible architectures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentzoglanakis, Kyriakos; Poole, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of reverse engineering the topology of gene regulatory networks from temporal gene expression data. We adopt a computational intelligence approach comprising swarm intelligence techniques, namely particle swarm optimization (PSO) and ant colony optimization (ACO). In addition, the recurrent neural network (RNN) formalism is employed for modeling the dynamical behavior of gene regulatory systems. More specifically, ACO is used for searching the discrete space of network architectures and PSO for searching the corresponding continuous space of RNN model parameters. We propose a novel solution construction process in the context of ACO for generating biologically plausible candidate architectures. The objective is to concentrate the search effort into areas of the structure space that contain architectures which are feasible in terms of their topological resemblance to real-world networks. The proposed framework is initially applied to the reconstruction of a small artificial network that has previously been studied in the context of gene network reverse engineering. Subsequently, we consider an artificial data set with added noise for reconstructing a subnetwork of the genetic interaction network of S. cerevisiae (yeast). Finally, the framework is applied to a real-world data set for reverse engineering the SOS response system of the bacterium Escherichia coli. Results demonstrate the relative advantage of utilizing problem-specific knowledge regarding biologically plausible structural properties of gene networks over conducting a problem-agnostic search in the vast space of network architectures.

  17. Particulate air pollution and increased mortality: Biological plausibility for causal relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, R.F.

    1995-01-01

    Recently, a number of epidemiological studies have concluded that ambient particulate exposure is associated with increased mortality and morbidity at PM concentrations well below those previously thought to affect human health. These studies have been conducted in several different geographical locations and have involved a range of populations. While the consistency of the findings and the presence of an apparent concentration response relationship provide a strong argument for causality, epidemiological studies can only conclude this based upon inference from statistical associations. The biological plausibility of a causal relationship between low concentrations of PM and daily mortality and morbidity rates is neither intuitively obvious nor expected based on past experimental studies on the toxicity of inhaled particles. Chronic toxicity from inhaled, poorly soluble particles has been observed based on the slow accumulation of large lung burdens of particles, not on small daily fluctuations in PM levels. Acute toxicity from inhaled particles is associated mainly with acidic particles and is observed at much higher concentrations than those observed in the epidemiology studies reporting an association between PM concentrations and morbidity/mortality. To approach the difficult problem of determining if the association between PM concentrations and daily morbidity and mortality is biologically plausible and causal, one must consider (1) the chemical and physical characteristics of the particles in the inhaled atmospheres, (2) the characteristics of the morbidity/mortality observed and the people who are affected, and (3) potential mechanisms that might link the two

  18. Morality Principles for Risk Modelling: Needs and Links with the Origins of Plausible Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solana-Ortega, Alberto; Solana, Vicente

    2009-12-01

    In comparison with the foundations of probability calculus, the inescapable and controversial issue of how to assign probabilities has only recently become a matter of formal study. The introduction of information as a technical concept was a milestone, but the most promising entropic assignment methods still face unsolved difficulties, manifesting the incompleteness of plausible inference theory. In this paper we examine the situation faced by risk analysts in the critical field of extreme events modelling, where the former difficulties are especially visible, due to scarcity of observational data, the large impact of these phenomena and the obligation to assume professional responsibilities. To respond to the claim for a sound framework to deal with extremes, we propose a metafoundational approach to inference, based on a canon of extramathematical requirements. We highlight their strong moral content, and show how this emphasis in morality, far from being new, is connected with the historic origins of plausible inference. Special attention is paid to the contributions of Caramuel, a contemporary of Pascal, unfortunately ignored in the usual mathematical accounts of probability.

  19. Biologically plausible learning in neural networks: a lesson from bacterial chemotaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimansky, Yury P

    2009-12-01

    Learning processes in the brain are usually associated with plastic changes made to optimize the strength of connections between neurons. Although many details related to biophysical mechanisms of synaptic plasticity have been discovered, it is unclear how the concurrent performance of adaptive modifications in a huge number of spatial locations is organized to minimize a given objective function. Since direct experimental observation of even a relatively small subset of such changes is not feasible, computational modeling is an indispensable investigation tool for solving this problem. However, the conventional method of error back-propagation (EBP) employed for optimizing synaptic weights in artificial neural networks is not biologically plausible. This study based on computational experiments demonstrated that such optimization can be performed rather efficiently using the same general method that bacteria employ for moving closer to an attractant or away from a repellent. With regard to neural network optimization, this method consists of regulating the probability of an abrupt change in the direction of synaptic weight modification according to the temporal gradient of the objective function. Neural networks utilizing this method (regulation of modification probability, RMP) can be viewed as analogous to swimming in the multidimensional space of their parameters in the flow of biochemical agents carrying information about the optimality criterion. The efficiency of RMP is comparable to that of EBP, while RMP has several important advantages. Since the biological plausibility of RMP is beyond a reasonable doubt, the RMP concept provides a constructive framework for the experimental analysis of learning in natural neural networks.

  20. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  1. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  2. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  3. Windows on the future using scenarios to envision the impact of future uncertainties on utility markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-09-01

    This executive report introduces a creative approach to strategy development that begins with scenarios and ends with responsive customer business strategies. Created by EPRI and its research partners, this guided approach uses examples from a workshop in ''Scenario Planning.'' The workshop was sponsored by the Customer Systems Division (CSD) as part of its forward-looking plan to provide programs and services capable of meeting customer needs, shareholder expectations, and societal concerns in a changing world. To illustrate the approach, scenarios from EPRI's Customer 20/20 project are examined using contrasting views of the future structure of the industry -- ''incremental change'' and ''retail competition.'' The three scenarios-entitled Retreating Forward, American Renaissance, and Industrial Ecology -- are driven by plausible outcomes of economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory uncertainties. The benefits of creating scenarios and developing strategic responses are depicted in drawings that portray this innovative approach

  4. Energy consumption in industry, 1990 - 2035 - Scenarios I to IV for various sensitivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumgartner, W.; Ebert, O.; Weber, F.

    2006-12-01

    This comprehensive, illustrated report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the results of a study with respect to industrial energy consumption which provided scenarios for future Swiss energy consumption. Four scenarios were elaborated: Continuation of present policy, increased co-operation between state and industry, more ambitious energy policy priorities and a scenario with even more ambitious goals - the so-called '2000 Watt Society'. For each of these scenarios several variants and a selection of sub-variants were defined, including increased prices, higher gross domestic product GDP, warmer climate and various carbon levies. The specific energy consumption of 16 different industrial sectors is examined and the effects of the various scenarios on several factors are considered. Data and results are presented in tabular and graphical form. Various measures that could influence energy consumption are listed and discussed, as are the modelling methods employed and the plausibility of the results obtained

  5. The terrace like feature in the mid-continental slope region off Trivandrum and a plausible model for India-Madagascar juxtaposition in immediate pre-drift scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Yatheesh, V.; Bhattacharya, G.C.; Mahender, K.

    & Ocean Research, Headland Sada, Vasco-da-Gama, Goa ? 403 804. 2Geological Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa ? 403 004. 3Department of Earth Science, Goa University, Taleigao Plateau, Goa ? 403 206. Abstract... volcanism and the breakup of Madagascar and India. Science, 267, 852-855. Talwani, M., Reif, C., 1998. Laxmi Ridge - a continental sliver in the Arabian Sea. Marine Geophysical Research, 20, 259-271. Todal, A., Eldhom, O., 1998. Continental margin off...

  6. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  7. The vulnerability of tourism and recreation in the National Capital Region to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, D; Jones, B. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Faculty of Environmental Studies; Khaled, H.A. [National Capital Commission, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-03-15

    The potential impact of climate change on recreation and tourism in Canada's National Capital Region was assessed. The objectives of the study were to examine two important issues, including how climate change will influence the seasonality of major recreation and tourism segments in the winter and summer months. The study analysed the disparate vulnerability of recreation and tourism segments to climate variability and change, explored risks and opportunities for recreation and tourism in the region, and examined management adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in several phases involving consultation meetings with National Capital Commission staff, data compilation and development of climate change scenarios. This was followed by a climate change impact assessment. The report also provided information on the methodology used for the study and on climate change impact indicators. It was concluded that as a result of climate change, the Winterlude season would become shorter and that the timeframe for skating on the Rideau Canal was projected to be shortened. 61 refs., 23 tabs., 20 figs., 2 appendices.

  8. Energy System Expectations for Nuclear in the 21. Century: A Plausible Range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langlois, Lucille M.; McDonald, Alan; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Vera, Ivan

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look like in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios. However, they do not present the underlying energy system structures in enough detail for specific energy technology and infrastructure analyses. This paper therefore describes initial steps within INPRO (The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles of the International Atomic Energy Agency) to translate the SRES results into a range of possible nuclear energy technology requirements for mid-century. The paper summarizes the four SRES scenarios that will be used in INPRO and the reasons for their selection. It provides illustrative examples of the sort of additional detail that is being developed about the overall energy system implied by each scenario, and about specific scenario features particularly relevant to nuclear energy. As recommended in SRES, the selected scenarios cover all four SRES 'story-line families'. The energy system translations being developed in INPRO are intended to indicate how energy services may be provided in mid-century and to delineate likely technology and infrastructure implications. They will indicate answers to questions like the following. The list is illustrative, not comprehensive. - What kind of nuclear power plants will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What energy forms and other products and services provided by nuclear reactors will best fit the mid-century energy system? - What would be their market shares? - How difficult will it be to site new nuclear

  9. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  11. Recreational football as a health promoting activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krustrup, Peter; Aagaard, Per; Nybo, L

    2010-01-01

    The present review addresses the physiological demands during recreational football training and the effects on central health variables that influence the risk of life-style diseases of young and middle-aged men. Recent studies have established that recreational football, carried out as small......-sided games can be characterized as having a high aerobic component with mean heart rates of 80-85% of maximum heart rate, which is similar to values observed for elite football players. In addition, the training includes multiple high-speed runs, sprints, turns, jumps and tackles, which provide a high impact...... on muscles and bones. Recreational football training in untrained men results in marked improvements in maximum aerobic power, blood pressure, muscle capillarization and intermittent exercise performance, and those effects are similar to interval training and more pronounced than moderate...

  12. Spatial preference heterogeneity in forest recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Garcia, Serge; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we analyze the preferences for recreational use of forests in Lorraine (Northeastern France), applying stated preference data. Our approach allows us to estimate individual-specific preferences for recreational use of different forest types. These estimates are used in a second stage...... in the estimation of welfare economic values for parking and picnic facilities in the analyzed model. The results underline the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity of preferences carrying out economic valuation of spatial-delineated environmental goods and that the spatial variation in willingness...... of the analysis where we test whether preferences depend on access to recreation sites. We find that there is significant preference heterogeneity with respect to most forest attributes. The spatial analysis shows that preferences for forests with parking and picnic facilities are correlated with having access...

  13. Introducing a method for mapping recreational experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindholst, Andrej Christian; Dempsey, Nicola; Burton, Mel

    2013-01-01

    spaces provide and support a range of recreational experiences. The exploration reported here is based on a short review of the methods background and an application in two test sites in Sheffield, South Yorkshire in early summer 2010. This paper critically appraises the application of rec......-mapping’, an innovative method of analysing and mapping positive recreational experiences in urban green spaces is explored and piloted within the UK planning context. Originating in the Nordic countries, this on-site method can provide urban planners and designers with data about the extent to which specific green......-mapping at smaller spatial scales and recommends further explorations within the UK planning context, as the method adds to existing open space assessment by providing a unique layer of information to analyse more fully the recreational qualities of urban green spaces....

  14. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  15. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  16. The choice of forest site for recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agimass, Fitalew; Lundhede, Thomas; Panduro, Toke Emil

    2018-01-01

    logit as well as a random parameter logit model. The variables that are found to affect the choice of forest site to a visit for recreation include: forest area, tree species composition, forest density, availability of historical sites, terrain difference, state ownership, and distance. Regarding......In this paper, we investigate the factors that can influence the site choice of forest recreation. Relevant attributes are identified by using spatial data analysis from a questionnaire asking people to indicate their most recent forest visits by pinpointing on a map. The main objectives...

  17. Signature of Plausible Accreting Supermassive Black Holes in Mrk 261/262 and Mrk 266

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gagik Ter-Kazarian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the neutrino radiation of plausible accreting supermassive black holes closely linking to the 5 nuclear components of galaxy samples of Mrk 261/262 and Mrk 266. We predict a time delay before neutrino emission of the same scale as the age of the Universe. The ultrahigh energy neutrinos are produced in superdense protomatter medium via simple (quark or pionic reactions or modified URCA processes (G. Gamow was inspired to name the process URCA after the name of a casino in Rio de Janeiro. The resulting neutrino fluxes for quark reactions are ranging from to , where is the opening parameter. For pionic and modified URCA reactions, the fluxes are and , respectively. These fluxes are highly beamed along the plane of accretion disk, peaked at ultrahigh energies, and collimated in smaller opening angle .

  18. Nitrogenous Derivatives of Phosphorus and the Origins of Life: Plausible Prebiotic Phosphorylating Agents in Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megha Karki

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Phosphorylation under plausible prebiotic conditions continues to be one of the defining issues for the role of phosphorus in the origins of life processes. In this review, we cover the reactions of alternative forms of phosphate, specifically the nitrogenous versions of phosphate (and other forms of reduced phosphorus species from a prebiotic, synthetic organic and biochemistry perspective. The ease with which such amidophosphates or phosphoramidate derivatives phosphorylate a wide variety of substrates suggests that alternative forms of phosphate could have played a role in overcoming the “phosphorylation in water problem”. We submit that serious consideration should be given to the search for primordial sources of nitrogenous versions of phosphate and other versions of phosphorus.

  19. Quantum theory as plausible reasoning applied to data obtained by robust experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Raedt, H; Katsnelson, M I; Michielsen, K

    2016-05-28

    We review recent work that employs the framework of logical inference to establish a bridge between data gathered through experiments and their objective description in terms of human-made concepts. It is shown that logical inference applied to experiments for which the observed events are independent and for which the frequency distribution of these events is robust with respect to small changes of the conditions under which the experiments are carried out yields, without introducing any concept of quantum theory, the quantum theoretical description in terms of the Schrödinger or the Pauli equation, the Stern-Gerlach or Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm experiments. The extraordinary descriptive power of quantum theory then follows from the fact that it is plausible reasoning, that is common sense, applied to reproducible and robust experimental data. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. Reciprocity-based reasons for benefiting research participants: most fail, the most plausible is problematic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Neema

    2014-11-01

    A common reason for giving research participants post-trial access (PTA) to the trial intervention appeals to reciprocity, the principle, stated most generally, that if one person benefits a second, the second should reciprocate: benefit the first in return. Many authors consider it obvious that reciprocity supports PTA. Yet their reciprocity principles differ, with many authors apparently unaware of alternative versions. This article is the first to gather the range of reciprocity principles. It finds that: (1) most are false. (2) The most plausible principle, which is also problematic, applies only when participants experience significant net risks or burdens. (3) Seldom does reciprocity support PTA for participants or give researchers stronger reason to benefit participants than equally needy non-participants. (4) Reciprocity fails to explain the common view that it is bad when participants in a successful trial have benefited from the trial intervention but lack PTA to it. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

    2010-11-01

    Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

  2. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  3. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  4. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  5. Behavior Management in Physical Education, Recreation, and Sport: A Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavay, Barry

    1986-01-01

    This bibliography contains references specifically pertaining to physical education, recreation, or sport and to behavior management. The references are classified into areas of behavior management overview, reinforcement systems, motor performance, physical fitness, recreation, and sport. (MT)

  6. Leisure Today--Family Cohesion Through Leisure and Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. Harold, Ed.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Family relationships can be strengthened through recreation and leisure activities. Articles dealing with leisure research, values, computers, recreation in rural areas, and youth sports are offered for those interested in facilitating the development of strong families. (DF)

  7. Recreational consequences of the damage to forests. Folgen des Waldsterbens fuer Freizeit und Erholung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nohl, W; Richter, U

    1986-01-01

    The study intends to evaluate the expected monetary consequences of the damage to forests in the Federal Republic of Germany. Emphasis is on the recreational sector. Evaluations are based on 1984-2060 scenarios of different assumed pollution levels. The expected retrograde development of the frequentation of forests is determined by way of evaluating the decreasing delight and enjoyment taken in walks through forests showing the signs of a clearly changed scenery. The monetary evaluation is based on data and facts identifying the benefits those frequenting forests are losing, the financial losses of tourism, and public option losses concerning the future availability of forests. Even the more positive evaluation of deteriorations shows annual damages to be in the order of magnitude of billions of marks. This in view, recreational consequences by far exceed the consequences making themselves felt in sectors such as forestry or the wood industry.

  8. Data Collection and Simulation of Ecological Habitat and Recreational Habitat in the Shenandoah River, Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstolic, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents updates to methods, describes additional data collected, documents modeling results, and discusses implications from an updated habitat-flow model that can be used to predict ecological habitat for fish and recreational habitat for canoeing on the main stem Shenandoah River in Virginia. Given a 76-percent increase in population predictions for 2040 over 1995 records, increased water-withdrawal scenarios were evaluated to determine the effects on habitat and recreation in the Shenandoah River. Projected water demands for 2040 vary by watershed: the North Fork Shenandoah River shows a 55.9-percent increase, the South Fork Shenandoah River shows a 46.5-percent increase, and the main stem Shenandoah River shows a 52-percent increase; most localities are projected to approach the total permitted surface-water and groundwater withdrawals values by 2040, and a few localities are projected to exceed these values.

  9. Energy conservation: policy issues and end-use scenarios of savings potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-09-01

    The enclosed work is based on previous research during this fiscal year, contained in Construction of Energy Conservation Scenarios: Interim Report of Work in Progress, June 1978. Five subjects were investigated and summaries were published for each subject in separate publications. This publication summarizes policy issues on the five subjects: tradeoffs of municipal solid-waste-processing alternatives (economics of garbage collection; mechanical versus home separation of recyclables); policy barriers and investment decisions in industry (methodology for identification of potential barriers to industrial energy conservation; process of industrial investment decision making); energy-efficient recreational travel (information system to promote energy-efficient recreational travel; recreational travel; national importance and individual decision making); energy-efficient buildings (causes of litigation against energy-conservation building codes; description of the building process); and end-use energy-conservation data base and scenaerios (residential; commercial; transportation; and industrial).

  10. Wilderness recreation use: the current situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph W. Roggenbuck; Alan E. Watson

    1989-01-01

    The total amount of recreational use of the National Wilderness Preservation System is currently at about 14.5 million visitor days per annum. Trends indicate a stable or declining overall use; use on a per acre basis is declining. The common stereotype of the wilderness user as young, wealthy, urban, leisured, and a nonresident of the State or region is largely...

  11. 76 FR 55079 - Recreational Vessel Accident Reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-06

    ... operators to make decisions aimed at improving boating safety. This information, described in title 33 Code... Coast Guard long after an accident occurs. Incomplete, inaccurate, or late accident information makes... the recreational vessel owner or operator? If so, how many man-hours are required to collect this...

  12. Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl H. Reidel

    1980-01-01

    I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

  13. Wetted surface area of recreational boats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker J; van Vlaardingen PLA; ICH; VSP

    2018-01-01

    The wetted surface area of recreational craft is often treated with special paint that prevents growth of algae and other organisms. The active substances in this paint (antifouling) are also emitted into the water. The extent of this emission is among others determined by the treated surface area.

  14. An Environmental Ethic for Parks and Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAvoy, Leo

    1990-01-01

    Suggests an environmental ethic for parks and recreation professionals who are often on the wrong side of the environmental controversy because they lack a professional ethic. This article provides a guide for implementing an environmental ethic, noting that philosophy of service must be grounded in ecological principles, not merchant values. (SM)

  15. Infusing JUST Design in Campus Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staeger-Wilson, Katheryne; Sampson, Douglas H.

    2012-01-01

    This practice brief highlights the collaborative work among a disability resource professional, a university architect, and students with disabilities to create a campus recreation center with universal design features. This partnership serves to illustrate that building to minimum compliance standards does not necessarily remove barriers to…

  16. Bacteriological physicochemical quality of recreational water bodies ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    tinsae

    importance of the safety of recreational waters, a cross-sectional study at Addis ... of chlorine-resistant germs, and pool staff and swimmers ... and have different water system except that of site 2. ... available in excreta of warm blooded animal.

  17. Re-Creating Pablo Picasso's "Guernica"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daseler, Jack C.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the teachers at the author's school completed a group project with their eighth-graders in which they recreated a mural version of the famous painting by Pablo Picasso, "Guernica." This activity was aimed at: (1) studying the rise of Fascism in Spain and Germany during the Spanish Civil War prior to World War II; (2) learning…

  18. 75 FR 19608 - Recreation Resource Advisory Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-15

    ...;and investigations, committee meetings, agency decisions and rulings, #0;delegations of authority... tourism official to represent the State; b. A person who represents affected Indian tribes; and c. A... reimbursed for travel and per diem expenses for regularly scheduled committee meetings. All Recreation RAC...

  19. Annual in Therapeutic Recreation. Volume 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Michael E., Ed.; Card, Jaclyn A., Ed.

    This volume focuses on therapeutic recreation, as a subject of inquiry and as a treatment tool. The 11 articles include original field based research, program development initiatives, issue and theory of practice papers, and original tutorials in assessment and research. The article titles are: "The Role of Leisure Education with Family…

  20. A virtue analysis of recreational marijuana use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Ezra; Austriaco, Nicanor

    2016-05-01

    Several empirical studies suggest that recreational marijuana is popularly perceived as an essentially harmless rite of passage that ends as young people settle into their careers and their adult intimate relationships. Is this perception accurate? To answer this question, we evaluate the morality of recreational marijuana use from a virtue perspective guided by the theological synthesis of St. Thomas Aquinas. Since the medical data reveals that recreational marijuana use is detrimental to the well-being of the user, we conclude that it is a vicious activity, an instance of the vice of intoxication, and as such would be morally illicit. In contrast to its medical use, the recreational use of marijuana cannot be justified for at least three reasons. First, as scientists have amply documented, it harms the organic functioning of the human body. Second, it impedes our ability to reason and in so doing does harm to us. Finally, it has lasting detrimental effects on the user and his neighbor, even when it occurs in a casual setting. Intoxication is always contrary to the integral good of the person. Thus, the use of marijuana is never warranted even for good, non-medical reasons.

  1. Recreational nitrous oxide use: Prevalence and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Amsterdam, Jan; Nabben, Ton; van den Brink, Wim

    2015-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O; laughing gas) is clinically used as a safe anesthetic (dentistry, ambulance, childbirth) and appreciated for its anti-anxiety effect. Since five years, recreational use of N2O is rapidly increasing especially in the dance and festival scene. In the UK, N2O is the second most

  2. Recreational Prescription Drug Use among College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolek, Ethan A.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore recreational prescription drug use among undergraduate students. Although anecdotal accounts on this subject abound, empirical research is extremely limited. Data from a survey of a random sample of 734 students at a large public research university in the Northeast were examined. Results indicate that a…

  3. A RECREATION OPTIMIZATION MODEL BASED ON THE TRAVEL COST METHOD

    OpenAIRE

    Hof, John G.; Loomis, John B.

    1983-01-01

    A recreation allocation model is developed which efficiently selects recreation areas and degree of development from an array of proposed and existing sites. The model does this by maximizing the difference between gross recreation benefits and travel, investment, management, and site-opportunity costs. The model presented uses the Travel Cost Method for estimating recreation benefits within an operations research framework. The model is applied to selection of potential wilderness areas in C...

  4. Landscape generator : method to generate plausible landscape configurations for participatory spatial plan-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slager, C.T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary regional spatial plan-making in the Netherlands is characterized as a complex process wherein multiple actors, with different levels of interests and demands, try to commonly develop a coherent and comprehensive set of future plan scenarios. The construction of the set of spatial plan

  5. Proceedings of the 2010 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; Clifton E., Jr., eds. Watts

    2012-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 2010 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and demographics, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure constraints, environmental attitudes and values, leisure...

  6. RPA Assessment of Outdoor Recreation: Past, Current, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, the outdoor recreation sections of the Renewable Resource Planning Act (RPA) Assessments conducted to date are reviewed. Current policy and mangement applications of the outsdoor recreation results published in 1989 Assessment are discussed also. The paper concludes with suggestions for the assemssment of outdoor recreation in future RPA Assessements...

  7. Research roundtable on health, parks, recreation, and tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly S. Bricker; Jessica Leahy; Dave Smaldone; Andrew Mowen; Chad Pierskalla

    2009-01-01

    Over the past few years, there has been increased awareness of the connection between health and outdoor recreation and a proliferation of alliances, partnerships, and statewide efforts to promote the health benefits of outdoor recreation (Memorandum of Understanding [MOU] 2002, NRPA 2008). The alliances formed underscore the relevance of outdoor recreation in...

  8. Therapeutic Recreation in the Community: An Inclusive Approach. Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Marcia Jean; LeConey, Stephen P.

    2004-01-01

    The second edition of Therapeutic Recreation in the Community: An Inclusive Approach reflects the changing and evolving nature of recreation and health care services. A number of social, economic, and political directives and technological advancements have fostered recreation in the community for all individuals. Due in part to a rising awareness…

  9. People participation in natural outdoors recreation activities and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of the visitors believe natural outdoor recreation in the south-west of the country ... These identified benefits of Natural Outdoors Recreational in the course of the ... promotion, employment, urban aesthetic, healthy livings and improve tourism ... outdoor recreation centres to augment medical service in improving life span ...

  10. 36 CFR 7.79 - Amistad Recreation Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Amistad Recreation Area. 7.79... REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.79 Amistad Recreation Area. (a) Hunting. (1) Hunting is... (PWC). (1) PWCs are allowed within Amistad National Recreation Area with the following exceptions: (i...

  11. 77 FR 71191 - 2012 Recreational Water Quality Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-29

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-OW-2011-0466; FRL 9756-2] 2012 Recreational Water Quality... Recreational Water Quality Criteria. SUMMARY: Pursuant to section 304(a) of the Clean Water Act (CWA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing the availability of the 2012 Recreational Water Quality...

  12. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  13. Recreational user attitudes towards management strategies of Allegany State Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael Nisengard; Miklos Gratzer

    1998-01-01

    This project examines attitudes towards management strategies of four Allegany State Park recreational user groups: cabin users, recreational vehicle users, tent users, and day users. It investigates recreational user group attitude differences, and attitude change over a ten year time period, in regard to the following park management strategy categories: park...

  14. Identifying the Computer Competency Levels of Recreation Department Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorba, Erdal

    2011-01-01

    Computer-based and web-based applications are as major instructional tools to increase undergraduates' motivation at school. In the recreation field usage of, computer and the internet based recreational applications has become more prevalent in order to present visual and interactive entertainment activities. Recreation department undergraduates…

  15. 36 CFR 7.69 - Ross Lake National Recreation Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Ross Lake National Recreation... INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.69 Ross Lake National Recreation Area... snowmobiles the following locations within the Ross Lake National Recreation Area: (1) State Highway 20, that...

  16. Recreational Reading of International Students in Academic Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordonaro, Karen

    2011-01-01

    Recreational reading as a method of language learning has been a focus of investigation in second language education. This article considers recreational reading through the additional perspective of academic librarianship. Its purpose is to discover if recreational reading is a topic that lends itself to research through both perspectives. This…

  17. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K (Dept. of Radiology, Toeoeloe Hospital, Helsinki (Finland)), email: frank.bensch@hus.fi

    2011-12-15

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  18. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K

    2011-01-01

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  19. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  20. 75 FR 26714 - Notice of Proposed New Recreation Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-12

    ... charge $10 per operator. A $60 annual pass will also be available for purchase by the public. This annual... recreational experience at the facility. Comparable recreational use fees are being proposed at other sites...

  1. 75 FR 26711 - Notice of New Recreation Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII, Pub. L...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-12

    ... operator for access to these trails. A $60 annual pass will also be available for purchase by the public... recreational experience at the facility. Comparable recreational use fees are being proposed at other sites...

  2. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  3. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  4. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  5. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  6. On the plausibility of socioeconomic mortality estimates derived from linked data: a demographic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerch, Mathias; Spoerri, Adrian; Jasilionis, Domantas; Viciana Fernandèz, Francisco

    2017-07-14

    Reliable estimates of mortality according to socioeconomic status play a crucial role in informing the policy debate about social inequality, social cohesion, and exclusion as well as about the reform of pension systems. Linked mortality data have become a gold standard for monitoring socioeconomic differentials in survival. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the quality of the linkage, in order to avoid the misclassification of deaths according to socioeconomic status. However, the plausibility of mortality estimates has never been scrutinized from a demographic perspective, and the potential problems with the quality of the data on the at-risk populations have been overlooked. Using indirect demographic estimation (i.e., the synthetic extinct generation method), we analyze the plausibility of old-age mortality estimates according to educational attainment in four European data contexts with different quality issues: deterministic and probabilistic linkage of deaths, as well as differences in the methodology of the collection of educational data. We evaluate whether the at-risk population according to educational attainment is misclassified and/or misestimated, correct these biases, and estimate the education-specific linkage rates of deaths. The results confirm a good linkage of death records within different educational strata, even when probabilistic matching is used. The main biases in mortality estimates concern the classification and estimation of the person-years of exposure according to educational attainment. Changes in the census questions about educational attainment led to inconsistent information over time, which misclassified the at-risk population. Sample censuses also misestimated the at-risk populations according to educational attainment. The synthetic extinct generation method can be recommended for quality assessments of linked data because it is capable not only of quantifying linkage precision, but also of tracking problems in

  7. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  8. Recent advances in recreation ecology and the implications of different relationships between recreation use and ecological impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher A. Monz; Catherine M. Pickering; Wade L. Hadwen

    2013-01-01

    Recreation ecology - the study of the environmental consequences of outdoor recreation/nature-based tourism activities and their effective management - is an emerging field of global importance. A primary research generalization in this field, the use-impact relationship, is commonly described as curvilinear, with proportionally more impact from initial recreation/...

  9. Event-based plausibility immediately influences on-line language comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuki, Kazunaga; Chow, Tracy; Hare, Mary; Elman, Jeffrey L; Scheepers, Christoph; McRae, Ken

    2011-07-01

    In some theories of sentence comprehension, linguistically relevant lexical knowledge, such as selectional restrictions, is privileged in terms of the time-course of its access and influence. We examined whether event knowledge computed by combining multiple concepts can rapidly influence language understanding even in the absence of selectional restriction violations. Specifically, we investigated whether instruments can combine with actions to influence comprehension of ensuing patients of (as in Rayner, Warren, Juhuasz, & Liversedge, 2004; Warren & McConnell, 2007). Instrument-verb-patient triplets were created in a norming study designed to tap directly into event knowledge. In self-paced reading (Experiment 1), participants were faster to read patient nouns, such as hair, when they were typical of the instrument-action pair (Donna used the shampoo to wash vs. the hose to wash). Experiment 2 showed that these results were not due to direct instrument-patient relations. Experiment 3 replicated Experiment 1 using eyetracking, with effects of event typicality observed in first fixation and gaze durations on the patient noun. This research demonstrates that conceptual event-based expectations are computed and used rapidly and dynamically during on-line language comprehension. We discuss relationships among plausibility and predictability, as well as their implications. We conclude that selectional restrictions may be best considered as event-based conceptual knowledge rather than lexical-grammatical knowledge.

  10. The missing link between sleep disorders and age-related dementia: recent evidence and plausible mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Feng; Zhong, Rujia; Li, Song; Chang, Raymond Chuen-Chung; Le, Weidong

    2017-05-01

    Sleep disorders are among the most common clinical problems and possess a significant concern for the geriatric population. More importantly, while around 40% of elderly adults have sleep-related complaints, sleep disorders are more frequently associated with co-morbidities including age-related neurodegenerative diseases and mild cognitive impairment. Recently, increasing evidence has indicated that disturbed sleep may not only serve as the consequence of brain atrophy, but also contribute to the pathogenesis of dementia and, therefore, significantly increase dementia risk. Since the current therapeutic interventions lack efficacies to prevent, delay or reverse the pathological progress of dementia, a better understanding of underlying mechanisms by which sleep disorders interact with the pathogenesis of dementia will provide possible targets for the prevention and treatment of dementia. In this review, we briefly describe the physiological roles of sleep in learning/memory, and specifically update the recent research evidence demonstrating the association between sleep disorders and dementia. Plausible mechanisms are further discussed. Moreover, we also evaluate the possibility of sleep therapy as a potential intervention for dementia.

  11. Mindfulness and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: State of the Evidence, Plausible Mechanisms, and Theoretical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuman-Olivier, Zev; Britton, Willoughby B.; Fresco, David M.; Desbordes, Gaelle; Brewer, Judson A.; Fulwiler, Carl

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this review is to provide (1) a synopsis on relations of mindfulness with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major CVD risk factors, and (2) an initial consensus-based overview of mechanisms and theoretical framework by which mindfulness might influence CVD. Initial evidence, often of limited methodological quality, suggests possible impacts of mindfulness on CVD risk factors including physical activity, smoking, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and diabetes regulation. Plausible mechanisms include (1) improved attention control (e.g., ability to hold attention on experiences related to CVD risk, such as smoking, diet, physical activity, and medication adherence), (2) emotion regulation (e.g., improved stress response, self-efficacy, and skills to manage craving for cigarettes, palatable foods, and sedentary activities), and (3) self-awareness (e.g., self-referential processing and awareness of physical sensations due to CVD risk factors). Understanding mechanisms and theoretical framework should improve etiologic knowledge, providing customized mindfulness intervention targets that could enable greater mindfulness intervention efficacy. PMID:26482755

  12. Phthalates impact human health: Epidemiological evidences and plausible mechanism of action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, Sailas; Masai, Eiji; Kamimura, Naofumi; Takahashi, Kenji; Anderson, Robin C; Faisal, Panichikkal Abdul

    2017-10-15

    Disregarding the rising alarm on the hazardous nature of various phthalates and their metabolites, ruthless usage of phthalates as plasticizer in plastics and as additives in innumerable consumer products continues due low their cost, attractive properties, and lack of suitable alternatives. Globally, in silico computational, in vitro mechanistic, in vivo preclinical and limited clinical or epidemiological human studies showed that over a dozen phthalates and their metabolites ingested passively by man from the general environment, foods, drinks, breathing air, and routine household products cause various dysfunctions. Thus, this review addresses the health hazards posed by phthalates on children and adolescents, epigenetic modulation, reproductive toxicity in women and men; insulin resistance and type II diabetes; overweight and obesity, skeletal anomalies, allergy and asthma, cancer, etc., coupled with the description of major phthalates and their general uses, phthalate exposure routes, biomonitoring and risk assessment, special account on endocrine disruption; and finally, a plausible molecular cross-talk with a unique mechanism of action. This clinically focused comprehensive review on the hazards of phthalates would benefit the general population, academia, scientists, clinicians, environmentalists, and law or policy makers to decide upon whether usage of phthalates to be continued swiftly without sufficient deceleration or regulated by law or to be phased out from earth forever. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. A plausible mechanism of biosorption in dual symbioses by vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmat, Rafia; Hamid, Neelofer

    2015-03-01

    Dual symbioses of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi with growth of Momordica charantia were elucidated in terms of plausible mechanism of biosorption in this article. The experiment was conducted in green house and mixed inoculum of the VAM fungi was used in the three replicates. Results demonstrated that the starch contents were the main source of C for the VAM to builds their hyphae. The increased plant height and leaves surface area were explained in relation with an increase in the photosynthetic rates to produce rapid sugar contents for the survival of plants. A decreased in protein, and amino acid contents and increased proline and protease activity in VAM plants suggested that these contents were the main bio-indicators of the plants under biotic stress. The decline in protein may be due to the degradation of these contents, which later on converted into dextrose where it can easily be absorbed by for the period of symbioses. A mechanism of C chemisorption in relation with physiology and morphology of plant was discussed.

  14. Non-specific effects of vaccines: plausible and potentially important, but implications uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Andrew J; Finn, Adam; Curtis, Nigel

    2017-11-01

    Non-specific effects (NSE) or heterologous effects of vaccines are proposed to explain observations in some studies that certain vaccines have an impact beyond the direct protection against infection with the specific pathogen for which the vaccines were designed. The importance and implications of such effects remain controversial. There are several known immunological mechanisms which could lead to NSE, since it is widely recognised that the generation of specific immunity is initiated by non-specific innate immune mechanisms that may also have wider effects on adaptive immune function. However, there are no published studies that demonstrate a mechanistic link between such immunological phenomena and clinically relevant NSE in humans. While it is highly plausible that some vaccines do have NSE, their magnitude and duration, and thus importance, remain uncertain. Although the WHO recently concluded that current evidence does not justify changes to immunisation policy, further studies of sufficient size and quality are needed to assess the importance of NSE for all-cause mortality. This could provide insights into vaccine immunobiology with important implications for infant health and survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  15. Photoinduced catalytic synthesis of biologically important metabolites from formaldehyde and ammonia under plausible "prebiotic" conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delidovich, I. V.; Taran, O. P.; Simonov, A. N.; Matvienko, L. G.; Parmon, V. N.

    2011-08-01

    The article analyzes new and previously reported data on several catalytic and photochemical processes yielding biologically important molecules. UV-irradiation of formaldehyde aqueous solution yields acetaldehyde, glyoxal, glycolaldehyde and glyceraldehyde, which can serve as precursors of more complex biochemically relevant compounds. Photolysis of aqueous solution of acetaldehyde and ammonium nitrate results in formation of alanine and pyruvic acid. Dehydration of glyceraldehyde catalyzed by zeolite HZSM-5-17 yields pyruvaldehyde. Monosaccharides are formed in the course of the phosphate-catalyzed aldol condensation reactions of glycolaldehyde, glyceraldehyde and formaldehyde. The possibility of the direct synthesis of tetroses, keto- and aldo-pentoses from pure formaldehyde due to the combination of the photochemical production of glycolahyde and phosphate-catalyzed carbohydrate chain growth is demonstrated. Erythrulose and 3-pentulose are the main products of such combined synthesis with selectivity up to 10%. Biologically relevant aldotetroses, aldo- and ketopentoses are more resistant to the photochemical destruction owing to the stabilization in hemiacetal cyclic forms. They are formed as products of isomerization of erythrulose and 3-pentulose. The conjugation of the concerned reactions results in a plausible route to the formation of sugars, amino and organic acids from formaldehyde and ammonia under presumed 'prebiotic' conditions.

  16. Assessment of Recreational Facilities in Federal Capital City, Abuja, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Kanayo Ezeamaka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abuja Master Plan provided development of adequate Green Areas and other Recreational Facilities within the Federal Capital City (FCC, as part of its sustainability principles and provided for these recreational facilities within each neighborhood (FCDA, 1979. However, there have been several recent foul cries about the negative development of recreational facilities and the abuse of the Master Plan in the FCC.  The motivation for carrying out this study arose from the observation that recreational facilities in Phase 1 of the Federal Capital City Abuja are not clearly developed as intended by the policy makers and thus, the need to identify the recreational facilities in the Phase 1 of FCC and observe their level of development as well as usage. The field survey revealed that the Central Business District and Gazupe have higher numbers of recreational facilities with 45 and 56. While Wuse II (A08 and Wuse II (A07 Districts have lesser recreational facilities with 10 and 17. The field survey further revealed that all the districts in Phase 1 have over 35% cases of land use changes from recreational facilities to other use. The survey shows that over 65% of these recreational facilities are fully developed. The study also shows that just about 11% of the recreational sporting facilities were developed in line with the Abuja Master Plan in Phase 1. The study revealed that recreational facilities in Phase 1 of the FCC, Abuja has not being developed in compliance with the Abuja Master Plan.

  17. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  18. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  19. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  20. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  1. Do recreational activities affect coastal biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Rodrigo; Menci, Cristiano; Sanabria-Fernández, José Antonio; Becerro, Mikel A.

    2016-09-01

    Human activities are largely affecting coastal communities worldwide. Recreational perturbations have been overlooked in comparison to other perturbations, yet they are potential threats to marine biodiversity. They affect coastal communities in different ways, underpinning consistent shifts in fish and invertebrates assemblages. Several sites were sampled subjected to varying effects by recreational fishermen (low and high pressure) and scuba divers (low and high) in an overpopulated Atlantic island. Non-consistent differences in ecological, trophic and functional diversity were found in coastal communities, considering both factors (;diving; and ;fishing;). Multivariate analyses only showed significant differences in benthic invertebrates between intensively-dived and non-dived sites. The lack of clear trends may be explained by the depletion of coastal resources in the study area, an extensively-affected island by overfishing.

  2. Lightning injuries in sports and recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Eric M; Howard, Thomas M

    2013-01-01

    The powers of lightning have been worshiped and feared by all known human cultures. While the chance of being struck by lightning is statistically very low, that risk becomes much greater in those who frequently work or play outdoors. Over the past 2 yr, there have been nearly 50 lightning-related deaths reported within the United States, with a majority of them associated with outdoor recreational activities. Recent publications primarily have been case studies, review articles, and a discussion of a sixth method of injury. The challenge in reducing lightning-related injuries in organized sports has been addressed well by both the National Athletic Trainers' Association and the National Collegiate Athletic Association in their guidelines on lightning safety. Challenges remain in educating the general population involved in recreational outdoor activities that do not fall under the guidelines of organized sports.

  3. Impaired inhibitory control in recreational cocaine users.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenza S Colzato

    Full Text Available Chronic use of cocaine is associated with impairment in response inhibition but it is an open question whether and to which degree findings from chronic users generalize to the upcoming type of recreational users. This study compared the ability to inhibit and execute behavioral responses in adult recreational users and in a cocaine-free-matched sample controlled for age, race, gender distribution, level of intelligence, and alcohol consumption. Response inhibition and response execution were measured by a stop-signal paradigm. Results show that users and non users are comparable in terms of response execution but users need significantly more time to inhibit responses to stop-signals than non users. Interestingly, the magnitude of the inhibitory deficit was positively correlated with the individuals lifetime cocaine exposure suggesting that the magnitude of the impairment is proportional to the degree of cocaine consumed.

  4. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K

    2011-12-01

    Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved in these accidents, we recommend ruling out of internal injury by MDCT as the primary imaging modality.

  5. Crime and the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana

    OpenAIRE

    Dragone, Davide; Prarolo, Giovanni; Vanin, Paolo; Zanella, Giulio

    2017-01-01

    We provide first-pass evidence that the legalization of the cannabis market across US states may be inducing a crime drop. Exploiting the recent staggered legalization enacted by the adjacent states of Washington (end of 2012) and Oregon (end of 2014) we find, combining county-level difference-in-differences and spatial regression discontinuity designs, that the legalization of recreational marijuana caused a significant reduction of rapes and thefts on the Washington side of the border in 20...

  6. Simulation of soil response to acidic deposition scenarios in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, W. de; Reinds, G.J.; Posch, M.; Kaemaera, J.

    1994-01-01

    The chemical response of European forest soils to three emission-deposition scenarios for the year 1960-2050, i.e. official energy pathways (OEP), current reduction plans (CRP) and maximum feasible reductions (MFR), was evaluated with the SMART model (Simulation Model for Acidification's Regional Trends). Calculations were made for coniferous and deciduous forests on 80 soil types occurring on the FAO soil map of Europe, using a gradient of 1.0 degree C longitude x 0.5 degree latitude. Results indicated that the area with nitrogen saturated soils, i.e. soils with elevated NO 3 concentrations (>0.02 mol c m -3 ) will increase in the future for all scenarios, even for the MFR scenario. The area with acidified soils, with a high Al concentration (> 0.2 mol c m -3 ) and Al/BC ratio (>1 mol -1 ) and a low pH ( 3 and Al concentrations mainly occurred in western, central and eastern Europe. Uncertainties in the initial values of C/N ratios and base saturation, and in the description of N dynamics in the SMART model had the largest impact on the temporal development of forested areas exceeding critical parameter values. Despite uncertainties involved, predicted general trends are plausible and reliable. 61 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs

  7. Evaporative water loss is a plausible explanation for mortality of bats from white-nose syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, Craig K R; Menzies, Allyson K; Boyles, Justin G; Wojciechowski, Michal S

    2011-09-01

    White-nose syndrome (WNS) has caused alarming declines of North American bat populations in the 5 years since its discovery. Affected bats appear to starve during hibernation, possibly because of disruption of normal cycles of torpor and arousal. The importance of hydration state and evaporative water loss (EWL) for influencing the duration of torpor bouts in hibernating mammals recently led to "the dehydration hypothesis," that cutaneous infection of the wing membranes of bats with the fungus Geomyces destructans causes dehydration which in turn, increases arousal frequency during hibernation. This hypothesis predicts that uninfected individuals of species most susceptible to WNS, like little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), exhibit high rates of EWL compared to less susceptible species. We tested the feasibility of this prediction using data from the literature and new data quantifying EWL in Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri), a species that is, like other European bats, sympatric with G. destructans but does not appear to suffer significant mortality from WNS. We found that little brown bats exhibited significantly higher rates of normothermic EWL than did other bat species for which comparable EWL data are available. We also found that Natterer's bats exhibited significantly lower rates of EWL, in both wet and dry air, compared with values predicted for little brown bats exposed to identical relative humidity (RH). We used a population model to show that the increase in EWL required to cause the pattern of mortality observed for WNS-affected little brown bats was small, equivalent to a solitary bat hibernating exposed to RH of ∼95%, or clusters hibernating in ∼87% RH, as opposed to typical near-saturation conditions. Both of these results suggest the dehydration hypothesis is plausible and worth pursuing as a possible explanation for mortality of bats from WNS.

  8. Bio-physically plausible visualization of highly scattering fluorescent neocortical models for in silico experimentation

    KAUST Repository

    Abdellah, Marwan

    2017-02-15

    Background We present a visualization pipeline capable of accurate rendering of highly scattering fluorescent neocortical neuronal models. The pipeline is mainly developed to serve the computational neurobiology community. It allows the scientists to visualize the results of their virtual experiments that are performed in computer simulations, or in silico. The impact of the presented pipeline opens novel avenues for assisting the neuroscientists to build biologically accurate models of the brain. These models result from computer simulations of physical experiments that use fluorescence imaging to understand the structural and functional aspects of the brain. Due to the limited capabilities of the current visualization workflows to handle fluorescent volumetric datasets, we propose a physically-based optical model that can accurately simulate light interaction with fluorescent-tagged scattering media based on the basic principles of geometric optics and Monte Carlo path tracing. We also develop an automated and efficient framework for generating dense fluorescent tissue blocks from a neocortical column model that is composed of approximately 31000 neurons. Results Our pipeline is used to visualize a virtual fluorescent tissue block of 50 μm3 that is reconstructed from the somatosensory cortex of juvenile rat. The fluorescence optical model is qualitatively analyzed and validated against experimental emission spectra of different fluorescent dyes from the Alexa Fluor family. Conclusion We discussed a scientific visualization pipeline for creating images of synthetic neocortical neuronal models that are tagged virtually with fluorescent labels on a physically-plausible basis. The pipeline is applied to analyze and validate simulation data generated from neuroscientific in silico experiments.

  9. A plausible neural circuit for decision making and its formation based on reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Hui; Dai, Dawei; Bu, Yijie

    2017-06-01

    A human's, or lower insects', behavior is dominated by its nervous system. Each stable behavior has its own inner steps and control rules, and is regulated by a neural circuit. Understanding how the brain influences perception, thought, and behavior is a central mandate of neuroscience. The phototactic flight of insects is a widely observed deterministic behavior. Since its movement is not stochastic, the behavior should be dominated by a neural circuit. Based on the basic firing characteristics of biological neurons and the neural circuit's constitution, we designed a plausible neural circuit for this phototactic behavior from logic perspective. The circuit's output layer, which generates a stable spike firing rate to encode flight commands, controls the insect's angular velocity when flying. The firing pattern and connection type of excitatory and inhibitory neurons are considered in this computational model. We simulated the circuit's information processing using a distributed PC array, and used the real-time average firing rate of output neuron clusters to drive a flying behavior simulation. In this paper, we also explored how a correct neural decision circuit is generated from network flow view through a bee's behavior experiment based on the reward and punishment feedback mechanism. The significance of this study: firstly, we designed a neural circuit to achieve the behavioral logic rules by strictly following the electrophysiological characteristics of biological neurons and anatomical facts. Secondly, our circuit's generality permits the design and implementation of behavioral logic rules based on the most general information processing and activity mode of biological neurons. Thirdly, through computer simulation, we achieved new understanding about the cooperative condition upon which multi-neurons achieve some behavioral control. Fourthly, this study aims in understanding the information encoding mechanism and how neural circuits achieve behavior control

  10. Is knowing believing? The role of event plausibility and background knowledge in planting false beliefs about the personal past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezdek, Kathy; Blandon-Gitlin, Iris; Lam, Shirley; Hart, Rhiannon Ellis; Schooler, Jonathan W

    2006-12-01

    False memories are more likely to be planted for plausible than for implausible events, but does just knowing about an implausible event make individuals more likely to think that the event happened to them? Two experiments assessed the independent contributions o f plausibility a nd background knowledge to planting false beliefs. In Experiment 1, subjects rated 20 childhood events as to the likelihood of each event having happened to them. The list included the implausible target event "received an enema," a critical target event of Pezdek, Finger, and Hodge (1997). Two weeks later, subjects were presented with (1) information regarding the high prevalence rate of enemas; (2) background information on how to administer an enema; (3) neither type of information; or (4) both. Immediately or 2 weeks later, they rated the 20 childhood events again. Only plausibility significantly increased occurrence ratings. In Experiment 2, the target event was changed from "barium enema administered in a hospital" to "home enema for constipation"; significant effects of both plausibility and background knowledge resulted. The results suggest that providing background knowledge can increase beliefs about personal events, but that its impact is limited by the extent of the individual's familiarity with the context of the suggested target event.

  11. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  12. Don't Plan for the Unexpected: Planning Based on Plausibility Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; Jensen, Martin Holm

    2015-01-01

    is not computationally feasible. Weak epistemic planning is not satisfactory either, as there is no way to qualify which of two weak plans is more likely to lead to the goal. This seriously limits the practical uses of weak planning, as the planning agent might for instance always choose a plan that relies...... that the agent achieves this goal. Conversely, a weak plan promises only the possibility of leading to the goal. In real-life planning scenarios where the planning agent is faced with a high degree of uncertainty and an almost endless number of possible exogenous events, strong epistemic planning...

  13. First aid kits for recreational dive boats, what should they contain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pye, Jacqueline; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2010-09-01

    Well-equipped first-aid kits are necessary but not always provided on recreational dive boats. We aimed to review the types of illness and injury likely to be encountered on such boats and inform a content list for such kits. We conducted a 3-round Delphi study by email using a volunteer panel of 18 experts drawn from diving, dive medicine and nursing. In round 1, panellists shared examples of illnesses and injuries they had come across personally. These scenarios were circulated along with findings from a literature review, including existing recommendations. In rounds 2 and 3, the list of kit for dive boats in different settings was iteratively refined through online discussion and feedback. Passengers and crew on recreational dive boats may encounter a range of medical problems from minor injuries to serious accidents and non-dive-related illnesses. Recommended kit varied depending on context and setting (e.g. distance from land, qualifications and experience of crew). Consensus was quickly reached on key first-aid items but experts' views on emergency medicines differed. The study highlights the diversity of medical problems encountered on recreational dive boats. We offer preliminary guidance on the content of suitable first-aid kits and suggest areas for further research. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Public Opinions and Use of Various Types of Recreational Infrastructure in Boreal Forest Settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vegard Gundersen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated public preferences for use intensity and visual quality of forest recreational infrastructure. Forest infrastructure covers five classes, along a continuum from unmarked paths to paved walkways. Altogether, 39 sites were categorized into the five classes and measured with automatic counters. A sample of 545 respondents living in southeastern and middle Norway were asked to rate 15 forest scenes and 35 preconceptions of recreational settings. The path scenarios were depicted as digitally calibrated photos that systematically displayed physical path feature in boreal, semi-natural settings. Survey participants showed a clearly greater preference for photos and preconceptions of forests settings containing minor elements of forest infrastructure; unmarked paths received the highest score and forest roads/walkways/bikeways the lowest. We identified a clear mismatch between public preferences for forest infrastructure and the intensity of use; the less appreciated infrastructure was the most used. Planning and management has to consider these different needs for recreational infrastructure, and we propose an area zoning system that meets the different segments of forest visitors.

  15. The Respite and Recreation: An Innovative Recreation Service to Adopted Children with Special Needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heewon Yang

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Often, youth in the foster care system have traumatic experiences associated with abuse and separation from their biological family. These experiences may lead to emotional, psychological, and behavioral problems that challenge the new adoptive family dynamic. This article introduces the Respite and Recreation (R & R program in a Midwestern area. R & R combines faculty, staff, and graduate students from a local University, local community resources, and staff from a local adoption agency to provide recreation, respite, and professional support services for children with special needs and their adoptive parents. The R & R program provides the adopted children with structured recreation programs for their growth, the parents with a break from stress, and volunteer students with opportunities to incorporate their academic learning into real life situations. Service learning programs such as the R & R also provide university faculty with excellent opportunities to conduct action research.

  16. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  17. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  18. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  19. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  20. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  1. Recreation and tourism induced changes in northern boreal environments

    OpenAIRE

    Kangas, K. (Katja)

    2009-01-01

    Abstract The popularity of nature-based tourism has increased worldwide and peripheral areas with conservational value, like protected areas, are attractive destinations. The recreational use and construction of tourism facilities can cause environmental degradation and decrease the conservational and recreational value of areas if not well planned and managed. The aim of this thesis was to improve our knowledge of recreation and tourism induced changes in northern boreal environments. Dir...

  2. RECREATIONAL GEOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT OF ECOLOGICAL TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Arpentieva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to theoretical analysis of the problems of ecological tourism as a component of the theory and practice of recreational geography (geography, nature. The article reveals the essence and characteristics of ecotourism identifying its issues and determining the direction and tasks of its development. Special attention is paid to types and objects of ecological tourism, main problems and aspects of its development in the context of recreational geography and tourism are highlighted, such as the lack of an overall national concept for the development of rural tourism or the lack of clearly articulated public policies. There are neither standards and regulations applicable to rural tourism nor qualified personnel, knowledge and experience in the service sector of foreign and domestic tourists.There are no regulatory legal acts in the field of rural and ecological tourism which is aggravated by the unwillingness and inability to efficiently use private recreation resources. One of the key problems connected with the development of domestic tourism, including such types as agrotourism (“green tourism”, coupled with the experience of participation in rural works, and rural tourism as a whole, attracting people to rural life. The business problems of development of ecological tourism as an independent tourism industry cannot and should not be addressed to without strategic analysis and forecasting varied (including negative consequences of tourist activity for society, culture and environment as well as without and without the development and implementation of forms of ecological tourism aimed at harmonizing nature and culture of nature management by the population.

  3. Recreational nitrous oxide use: Prevalence and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Amsterdam, Jan; Nabben, Ton; van den Brink, Wim

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O; laughing gas) is clinically used as a safe anesthetic (dentistry, ambulance, childbirth) and appreciated for its anti-anxiety effect. Since five years, recreational use of N2O is rapidly increasing especially in the dance and festival scene. In the UK, N2O is the second most popular recreational drug after cannabis. In most countries, nitrous oxide is a legal drug that is widely available and cheap. Last month prevalence of use among clubbers and ravers ranges between 40 and almost 80 percent. Following one inhalation, mostly from a balloon, a euphoric, pleasant, joyful, empathogenic and sometimes hallucinogenic effect is rapidly induced (within 10 s) and disappears within some minutes. Recreational N2O use is generally moderate with most users taking less than 10 balloons of N2O per episode and about 80% of the users having less than 10 episodes per year. Side effects of N2O include transient dizziness, dissociation, disorientation, loss of balance, impaired memory and cognition, and weakness in the legs. When intoxicated accidents like tripping and falling may occur. Some fatal accidents have been reported due to due to asphyxia (hypoxia). Heavy or sustained use of N2O inactivates vitamin B12, resulting in a functional vitamin B12 deficiency and initially causing numbness in fingers, which may further progress to peripheral neuropathy and megaloblastic anemia. N2O use does not seem to result in dependence. Considering the generally modest use of N2O and its relative safety, it is not necessary to take legal measures. However, (potential) users should be informed about the risk of vitamin B12-deficiency related neurological and hematological effects associated with heavy use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. PARKS OF RECREATIONAL COMPLEXES OF SUDAK CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina L. Potapenko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Development of optimal paths of landscaping recreational complexes South-Eastern Crimea (Sudak for example, taking into account climatic, geographical and historical characteristics of the region. Material. Green plantings of recreational complexes have been surveyed in 2015–2016: the sanatorium "Sudak" of the Ministry of defense of the Russian Federation, the area is 26 ha; the pension "Crimean spring", an area is 10 ha; the pension "Zvezdniy", an area is 3 ha; the sanatorium "Sokol", an area is 3 ha; the Tourist and recreational complex "Sudak", an area is 17 ha. Results. Dendroflora of Sudak recreational facilities includes 151 species belonging to 90 genera and 47 families. The most represented species in the following families: Rosaceae – 27 (17,9%, Oleaceae – 12 (7,9%, Pinaceae – 12 (7,9%, Cupressaceae – 10 (6,7%, Fabaceae – 7 (4,6%. The greatest form variety is possessed by representatives of the family Cupressaceae (8, or 33,0%, the pyramidal form of cypress evergreen (Cupressus sempervirens `Pyramidalis` dominates among them. An assortment of ornamental trees and shrubs in the studied sites are quite diverse – 175 species and forms. Deciduous trees and shrubs prevail here – 60 (34,3% and 37 (21,1% species and forms respectively. There are 37 (21,1% species and forms of coniferous trees and shrubs. There are 24 (13,7% types and forms of evergreen foliage plants: shrubs – 18 (10,3%, trees – 4 (2,3%, lianas – 2 (1,1%. Main conclusions. The source of introductory material for the green construction of South-Eastern Crimea should be the representatives of families Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, Rosaceae, Oleaceae, Fabaceae those are the most adapted to the soil and climatic conditions of the region. Increasing the diversity of ornamental trees and shrubs should be achieved through the use of coniferous and evergreen plants. To create picturesque groups of plants with different emotional conten increasing the number of

  5. Interactions between recreational drugs and antiretroviral agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Tony; Tseng, Alice Lin-In

    2002-10-01

    To summarize existing data regarding potential interactions between recreational drugs and drugs commonly used in the management of HIV-positive patients. Information was obtained via a MEDLINE search (1966-August 2002) using the MeSH headings human immunodeficiency virus, drug interactions, cytochrome P450, medication names commonly prescribed for the management of HIV and related opportunistic infections, and names of commonly used recreational drugs. Abstracts of national and international conferences, review articles, textbooks, and references of all articles were also reviewed. Literature on pharmacokinetic interactions was considered for inclusion. Pertinent information was selected and summarized for discussion. In the absence of specific data, prediction of potential clinically significant interactions was based on pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. All protease inhibitors (PIs) and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors are substrates and potent inhibitors or inducers of the cytochrome P450 system. Many classes of recreational drugs, including benzodiazepines, amphetamines, and opioids, are also metabolized by the liver and can potentially interact with antiretrovirals. Controlled interaction studies are often not available, but clinically significant interactions have been observed in a number of case reports. Overdoses secondary to interactions between the "rave" drugs methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) or gamma-hydroxybutyrate (GHB) and PIs have been reported. PIs, particularly ritonavir, may also inhibit metabolism of amphetamines, ketamine, lysergic acid diethylmide (LSD), and phencyclidine (PCP). Case series and pharmacokinetic studies suggest that nevirapine and efavirenz induce methadone metabolism, which may lead to symptoms of opiate withdrawal. A similar interaction may exist between methadone and the PIs ritonavir and nelfinavir, although the data are less consistent. Opiate metabolism can be inhibited or induced by

  6. Does getting a dog increase recreational walking?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew W

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study examines changes in socio-demographic, environmental and intrapersonal factors associated with dog acquisition in non-dog owners at baseline to 12-months follow-up and the effect of dog acquisition on minutes per week of recreational walking. Methods RESIDE study participants completed self-administered questionnaires (baseline and 12-months follow-up measuring physical activity, dog ownership, dog walking behavior as well as environmental, intrapersonal and socio-demographic factors. Analysis was restricted to 'Continuing non-owners' (i.e., non-owners at both baseline and follow-up; n = 681 and 'New dog owners' (i.e., non-owners who acquired a dog by follow-up; n = 92. Results Overall, 12% of baseline non-owners had acquired a dog at follow-up. Dog acquisition was associated with working and having children at home. Those who changed from single to couple marital status were also more likely to acquire a dog. The increase in minutes of walking for recreation within the neighborhood from baseline to follow-up was 48 minutes/week for new dog owners compared with 12 minutes/week for continuing non-owners (p p p > 0.05 after further adjustment for change in baseline to follow-up variables. Increase in intention to walk was the main factor contributing to attenuation of the effect of dog acquisition on recreational walking. Conclusion This study used a large representative sample of non-owners to examine the relationship between dog acquisition and recreational walking and provides evidence to suggest that dog acquisition leads to an increase in walking. The most likely mechanism through which dog acquisition facilitates increased physical activity is through behavioral intention via the dog's positive effect on owner's cognitive beliefs about walking, and through the provision of motivation and social support for walking. The results suggest that behavioral intention mediates the relationship between dog acquisition

  7. Brugada Phenocopy Induced by Recreational Drug Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin Akinlonu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Recreational drugs are commonly abused in all age groups. Intoxication with these substances can induce silent but significant electrocardiographic signs which may lead to sudden death. In this case study, we present a 49-year-old male with no medical comorbidities who came to the emergency department requesting opioid detoxification. Toxicology screen was positive for cocaine, heroin, and cannabis. Initial electrocardiogram (EKG showed features of a Brugada pattern in the right precordial leads, which resolved within one day into admission. This presentation is consistent with the recently recognized clinical entity known as Brugada phenocopy.

  8. Recreational system optimization to reduce conflict on public lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, Fraser; Boggs, Jennifer; Reed, Sarah

    2012-09-01

    In response to federal administrative rule, the Tahoe National Forest (TNF), California, USA engaged in trail-route prioritization for motorized recreation (e.g., off-highway-vehicles) and other recreation types. The prioritization was intended to identify routes that were suitable and ill-suited for maintenance in a transportation system. A recreational user survey was conducted online (n = 813) for user preferences for trail system characteristics, recreational use patterns, and demographics. Motorized trail users and non-motorized users displayed very clear and contrasting preferences for the same system. As has been found by previous investigators, non-motorized users expressed antagonism to motorized use on the same recreational travel system, whereas motorized users either supported multiple-use routes or dismissed non-motorized recreationists' concerns. To help the TNF plan for reduced conflict, a geographic information system (GIS) based modeling approach was used to identify recreational opportunities and potential environmental impacts of all travel routes. This GIS-based approach was based on an expert-derived rule set. The rules addressed particular environmental and recreation concerns in the TNF. Route segments were identified that could be incorporated into minimal-impact networks to support various types of recreation. The combination of potential impacts and user-benefits supported an optimization approach for an appropriate recreational travel network to minimize environmental impacts and user-conflicts in a multi-purpose system.

  9. Recreational System Optimization to Reduce Conflict on Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, Fraser; Boggs, Jennifer; Reed, Sarah

    2012-09-01

    In response to federal administrative rule, the Tahoe National Forest (TNF), California, USA engaged in trail-route prioritization for motorized recreation (e.g., off-highway-vehicles) and other recreation types. The prioritization was intended to identify routes that were suitable and ill-suited for maintenance in a transportation system. A recreational user survey was conducted online ( n = 813) for user preferences for trail system characteristics, recreational use patterns, and demographics. Motorized trail users and non-motorized users displayed very clear and contrasting preferences for the same system. As has been found by previous investigators, non-motorized users expressed antagonism to motorized use on the same recreational travel system, whereas motorized users either supported multiple-use routes or dismissed non-motorized recreationists' concerns. To help the TNF plan for reduced conflict, a geographic information system (GIS) based modeling approach was used to identify recreational opportunities and potential environmental impacts of all travel routes. This GIS-based approach was based on an expert-derived rule set. The rules addressed particular environmental and recreation concerns in the TNF. Route segments were identified that could be incorporated into minimal-impact networks to support various types of recreation. The combination of potential impacts and user-benefits supported an optimization approach for an appropriate recreational travel network to minimize environmental impacts and user-conflicts in a multi-purpose system.

  10. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  11. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  12. Hikers and recreational stock users: Predicting and managing recreation conflicts in three wildernesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan E. Watson; Michael J. Niccolucci; Daniel R. Williams

    1993-01-01

    A long-term problem that continues to grow in many wildland areas is the displeasure hikers express about meeting recreational livestock (primarily horses and mules) and seeing impacts from stock use. Three studies were conducted to provide a broad look at this interaction in wilderness and some of the contributors to the conflict between hikers and horse users....

  13. Values and choices in outdoor recreation by male and female campers in dispersed recreation areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriet H. Christensen; Paula J. Williams; Roger N. Clark

    1987-01-01

    Objective information is generally lacking about women and their satisfactions and experiences from participation in outdoor recreation. Data were gathered from campers in three National Forests in Washington and Oregon. Attitudes, preferences, perceptions, and reported activities of men and women campers were compared. Overall, responses showed more similarities than...

  14. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

  15. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  16. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Recreation users fees on federal lands: a test of structural change between 1995 and 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Bowker; Gary Green; Dan MuCullom; Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Federal lands provide many recreation facilities and services. On some of these lands, fees have been and are currently being charged for certain recreational services. This study examined the attitudes of users, between 1995 and 2003, towards recreation user fees on public lands. Data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment on recreational...

  18. Management implications of changes in recreation activity motivation across physical settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A Graefe; Rudy M. Schuster; Gary T. Green; H. Ken Cordell

    2010-01-01

    Outdoor recreation management frameworks suggest that a diverse set of recreation opportunities is necessary to meet the needs and desires of a diverse population of recreationists. Managers of recreation resources must understand recreational demand if they wish to provide high-quality recreation opportunities to their users. The purpose of this study was to examine...

  19. Reasons of Choosing Recreation Management Departments within the Body of Tourism Faculties and Expectations of Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ercan YAVUZ

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is seen that the students graduating from Recreation department work in tourism sectors, but on the other hand, Recreation students can also work in industry and domestic administrations, school recreation, therapeutic recreation etc. This paper presents some solutions by determining that the Recreation administration program’s students’ expectations of future and sufficiency of their education and their happiness

  20. An approach for recreation suitability analysis to recreation planning in Gölcük Nature Park.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gül, Atila; Orücü, M Kamil; Karaca, Oznur

    2006-05-01

    Gölcük Nature Park (GNP) is an area protected by law in Turkey. It is an important nature park with rich flora, fauna, geomorphologic forms, landscape features, and recreational potential in the region. However, GNP does not have a recreation management plan. The purpose of this study was to determine the actual natural, cultural, and visual resources of GNP, determine the most suitable recreational sites with multiple factors, evaluate the demands and tendencies of visitors, and suggest recreational activities and facilities for the most suitable sites of GNP. However, it was also conceived as leading to a recreational plan and design of GNP in the future and identifying the entire appropriate and current data of GNP with the creation of various maps. This study used multifactor analysis to determine the most suitable recreation sites of GNP. Used recreation factors were established including degree of slope, proximity to water resources, accessibility, elevation, vegetation, soil, climate, aspect, current cultural facilities, visual values, and some limiting factors in accordance with the characteristics of GNP. Weighting and suitability values of factors were determined by 30 local expert surveys. All obtained data were evaluated and integrated in the Geographical Information Systems base. Obtained maps were overlapped. Thus, recreational suitability zones map were created manually. However, the demands and behaviours from visitor surveys in GNP were focused on the most suitable recreation sites of the park. Finally, 10% of GNP was identified as the most suitable sites for recreational use. Various recreational facilities and activities (including picnicking, sports facilities and playgrounds, camping sites, walking paths, food and local outlets, etc.) were recommended for nine of the most suitable areas on the proposed recreational map.

  1. Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human

  2. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  3. Semantics-based plausible reasoning to extend the knowledge coverage of medical knowledge bases for improved clinical decision support

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammadhassanzadeh, Hossein; Van Woensel, William; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

    2017-01-01

    Background Capturing complete medical knowledge is challenging-often due to incomplete patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), but also because of valuable, tacit medical knowledge hidden away in physicians? experiences. To extend the coverage of incomplete medical knowledge-based systems beyond their deductive closure, and thus enhance their decision-support capabilities, we argue that innovative, multi-strategy reasoning approaches should be applied. In particular, plausible reasoning mech...

  4. Systematic reviews need to consider applicability to disadvantaged populations: inter-rater agreement for a health equity plausibility algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Vivian; Brand, Kevin; Kristjansson, Elizabeth; Smylie, Janet; Wells, George; Tugwell, Peter

    2012-12-19

    Systematic reviews have been challenged to consider effects on disadvantaged groups. A priori specification of subgroup analyses is recommended to increase the credibility of these analyses. This study aimed to develop and assess inter-rater agreement for an algorithm for systematic review authors to predict whether differences in effect measures are likely for disadvantaged populations relative to advantaged populations (only relative effect measures were addressed). A health equity plausibility algorithm was developed using clinimetric methods with three items based on literature review, key informant interviews and methodology studies. The three items dealt with the plausibility of differences in relative effects across sex or socioeconomic status (SES) due to: 1) patient characteristics; 2) intervention delivery (i.e., implementation); and 3) comparators. Thirty-five respondents (consisting of clinicians, methodologists and research users) assessed the likelihood of differences across sex and SES for ten systematic reviews with these questions. We assessed inter-rater reliability using Fleiss multi-rater kappa. The proportion agreement was 66% for patient characteristics (95% confidence interval: 61%-71%), 67% for intervention delivery (95% confidence interval: 62% to 72%) and 55% for the comparator (95% confidence interval: 50% to 60%). Inter-rater kappa, assessed with Fleiss kappa, ranged from 0 to 0.199, representing very low agreement beyond chance. Users of systematic reviews rated that important differences in relative effects across sex and socioeconomic status were plausible for a range of individual and population-level interventions. However, there was very low inter-rater agreement for these assessments. There is an unmet need for discussion of plausibility of differential effects in systematic reviews. Increased consideration of external validity and applicability to different populations and settings is warranted in systematic reviews to meet this

  5. Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, C.J.; Johnston, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    A sensitivity analysis of plausible errors in population, employment, fuel price, and income projections is conducted using the travel demand and emissions models of the Sacramento, CA, USA, region for their transportation plan. The results of the analyses indicate that plausible error ranges for household income and fuel prices are not a significant source of uncertainty with respect to the region's travel demand and emissions projections. However, plausible errors in population and employment projections (within approximately one standard deviation) may result in the region's transportation plan not meeting the conformity test for nitrogens of oxides (NO x ) in the year 2005 (i.e., an approximately 16% probability). This outcome is also possible in the year 2015 but less likely (within approximately two standard deviations or a 2.5% probability). Errors in socioeconomic projections are only one of many sources of error in travel demand and emissions models. These results have several policy implications. First, regions like Sacramento that meet their conformity tests by a very small margin should rethink new highway investment and consider contingency transportation plans that incorporate more aggressive emissions reduction policies. Second, regional transportation planning agencies should conduct sensitivity analyses as part of their conformity analysis to make explicit significant uncertainties in the methods and to identify the probability of their transportation plan not conforming. Third, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should clarify the interpretation of ''demonstrate'' conformity of transportation plans; that is, specify the level of certainty that it considers a sufficient demonstration of conformity. (author)

  6. Iron excess in recreational marathon runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mettler, S; Zimmermann, M B

    2010-05-01

    Iron deficiency and anemia may impair athletic performance, and iron supplements are commonly consumed by athletes. However, iron overload should be avoided because of the possible long-term adverse health effects. We investigated the iron status of 170 male and female recreational runners participating in the Zürich marathon. Iron deficiency was defined either as a plasma ferritin (PF) concentration or =4.5 (functional iron deficiency). After excluding subjects with elevated C-reactive protein concentrations, iron overload was defined as PF >200 microg/l. Iron depletion was found in only 2 out of 127 men (1.6% of the male study population) and in 12 out of 43 (28.0%) women. Functional iron deficiency was found in 5 (3.9%) and 11 (25.5%) male and female athletes, respectively. Body iron stores, calculated from the sTfR/PF ratio, were significantly higher (Pmarathon runners. Median PF among males was 104 microg/l, and the upper limit of the PF distribution in males was 628 microg/l. Iron overload was found in 19 out of 127 (15.0%) men but only 2 out of 43 in women (4.7%). Gender (male sex), but not age, was a predictor of higher PF (Pperformance, our findings indicate excess body iron may be common in male recreational runners and suggest supplements should only be used if tests of iron status indicate deficiency.

  7. Multiscale cosmology and structure-emerging dark energy: A plausibility analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiegand, Alexander; Buchert, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    theory, which allows us to rederive higher-order results from perturbation theory on the evolution laws for backreaction and curvature analytically. This strong backreaction scenario can explain structure formation and dark energy simultaneously. We conclude that these results represent a conceptually appealing approach towards a solution of the dark energy and coincidence problems. Open problems are the still too large amplitude of initial perturbations that are required for the scenarios proposed, and the role of dark matter that may be partially taken by backreaction effects. Both drawbacks point to the need of a reinterpretation of observational data in the new framework.

  8. Is Montenegro Considered as a Sports-Recreational Destination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Pekovic

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to examine if, according to the tourists coming to the country, Montenegro is considered as a sport-recreational destination. The data used in the study is extracted from the Montenegrin survey called Guest Survey 2014, comprising of 35 questions related to the tourist travel behavior and satisfaction during their stay in Montenegro. The paper uses the results of the study to provide descriptive statistics concerning the motives of tourist to visit Montenegro (one of the question is related to sport-recreational activities. Furthermore, it verifi es link between tourists’ motivation related to sport -recreational activities to come to Montenegro and their overall satisfaction with sport -recreational activities. The results indicated that only around 1% of tourists in our sample who visited Montenegro indicated sport- recreational activities as the main motive for the visit, around 3% of tourists indicated sport- recreational activities as a second motive while around 5% of tourists indicated sport and recreational activities as the third motive. However, around 60% of tourists reported that they were satisfi ed with overall sport -recreational activities during their stay in Montenegro. This study shows that even that Montenegrin sport-recreational off er is on the satisfactory level, managers and policy-makers should provide additional eff ort to present Montenegro as a sport-recreational destination since very low percentage of tourists are motivated to visit Montenegro related to these activities. The paper thus concludes by setting recommendations related to diversifi cation of Montenegrin tourism off er by pursuing sports-recreational tourism forms.

  9. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  10. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  11. Plausibility of Individual Decisions from Random Forests in Clinical Predictive Modelling Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayn, Dieter; Walch, Harald; Stieg, Jörg; Kreiner, Karl; Ebner, Hubert; Schreier, Günter

    2017-01-01

    Machine learning algorithms are a promising approach to help physicians to deal with the ever increasing amount of data collected in healthcare each day. However, interpretation of suggestions derived from predictive models can be difficult. The aim of this work was to quantify the influence of a specific feature on an individual decision proposed by a random forest (RF). For each decision tree within the RF, the influence of each feature on a specific decision (FID) was quantified. For each feature, changes in outcome value due to the feature were summarized along the path. Results from all the trees in the RF were statistically merged. The ratio of FID to the respective feature's global importance was calculated (FIDrel). Global feature importance, FID and FIDrel significantly differed, depending on the individual input data. Therefore, we suggest to present the most important features as determined for FID and for FIDrel, whenever results of a RF are visualized. Feature influence on a specific decision can be quantified in RFs. Further studies will be necessary to evaluate our approach in a real world scenario.

  12. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  13. 'Netherlands in Triplicate' in detail. Comments to the scenario study 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate) of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamminga, K.J.; Slotegraaf, G.; Van der Knoop, J.

    1995-08-01

    In 1992 the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) published the scenario studies 'Scanning the Future' and 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate or NiD). 'Scanning the Future' concerns the development of the world economy in the period 1990-2015, NiD concerns the development of the Dutch economy in the period 1990-2015. In this report comments are made regarding NiD. Chapter 1 focuses on the background and the goals of the NiD scenarios. These scenarios are projective, according to the CPB. The analytical framework or vision is based on the comparative strength analysis of the current state of the world economy and on the expected trends and challenges which might strongly influence the development of the world economy. The first chapter also deals with the assumptions chosen by the CPB. It is concluded that the CPB was searching for a balance between plausibility and provocation. If a scenario becomes too plausible their goal ('shaking up of mental maps') will not be achieved, whereas unreal predictions are irrelevant for policy makers. In chapter 2 the general scenario methodology is discussed and a scenario typology is derived including criteria which a well constructed scenario should meet. A distinction is made between scenarios, that are projective or explorative forecasting, and scenarios that are prospective, or speculative forecasting. Also another distinction is made: autonomous scenarios versus policy scenarios. Chapter 3 contains a closer look at the CPB study, based on the methodological considerations of Chapter 2. It is concluded that in the process of scenario development the goal was to create a coherent picture, fitting the assumptions on economic and human behaviour. The policy measures also had to match these assumptions. However, these assumptions imply certain norms and values. Therefore the NiD scenarios are rather prospective than projective. 3 figs., 1 tab., 26 refs., 2 appendices

  14. Definitions of Outdoor Recreation and Other Associated Terminology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, Maurice L.

    This document defines terms related to outdoor recreation: (1) outdoor recreation includes activities that occur outdoors in an urban and man-made environment as well as those activities traditionally associated with the natural environment; (2) outdoor education is education in, about, and for the outdoors; (3) environmental education is an…

  15. Microbial safety assessment of recreation water at Lake Nabugabo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJIRO

    Key words: Lake Nabugabo, microbial safety assessment, recreation water, water quality. ... the environment is favourable for growth (Jaiani et al., ... Swimming and bathing in inland waters are recognized .... in India. This can be attributed to variation in number of recreational users and the frequency of use of the various.

  16. National forest trail users: planning for recreation opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    John J. Daigle; Alan E. Watson; Glenn E. Haas

    1994-01-01

    National forest trail users in four geographical regions of the United States are described based on participation in clusters of recreation activities. Visitors are classified into day hiking, undeveloped recreation, and two developed camping and hiking activity clusters for the Appalachian, Pacific, Rocky Mountain, and Southwestern regions. Distance and time traveled...

  17. Social-psychological implications for recreation resource planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardeep S. Bhullar; Alan R. Everson; Scout L. Gunn

    1980-01-01

    Many claims have been made concerning the cause/effect relationship between recreation and leisure activity, and the acquisition of quality living. Studies have investigated the utility, quality, and quantity of recreation facilities. Studies of programs, leadership, members, and general classifications of users have also been conducted.

  18. Characteristics of wilderness users in outdoor recreation assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan E. Watson; H. Ken Cordell; Lawrence A. Hartmann

    1989-01-01

    Wilderness use is often subsumed under outdoor recreation participation in large-scale assessments. Participation monitoring has indicated, however, that wilderness use has been increasing faster than outdoor recreation use in general. In a sample of Forest Service wilderness and nonwildemess users during the summer of 1985, detailed expenditure, activity, and travel...

  19. Women Faculty, Higher Education, and the Recreation/Leisure Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Karla A.; Harrolle, Michelle; Rich, Samantha; Moretz, Janell

    2012-01-01

    Women represent growing numbers of faculty members in higher education as well as in recreation/leisure departments. The purpose of this study is to describe the career development of women faculty in recreation-related areas and to offer implications for faculty development and the preparation of future faculty. Data were collected from women who…

  20. Recreational impacts on the fauna of Australian coastal marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Nigel; Burgin, Shelley

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews recent research into the ecological impacts of recreation and tourism on coastal marine fauna in Australia. Despite the high and growing importance of water-based recreation to the Australian economy, and the known fragility of many Australian ecosystems, there has been relatively limited research into the effects of marine tourism and recreation, infrastructure and activities, on aquatic resources. In this paper we have reviewed the ecological impacts on fauna that are caused by outdoor recreation (including tourism) in Australian coastal marine ecosystems. We predict that the single most potentially severe impact of recreation may be the introduction and/or dispersal of non-indigenous species of marine organisms by recreational vessels. Such introductions, together with other impacts due to human activities have the potential to increasingly degrade recreation destinations. In response, governments have introduced a wide range of legislative tools (e.g., impact assessment, protected area reservation) to manage the recreational industry. It would appear, however, that these instruments are not always appropriately applied. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The Importance of Physical Literacy for Physical Education and Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basoglu, Umut Davut

    2018-01-01

    As the basis of characteristics, qualifications, behaviors, awareness, knowledge and understanding of the development of healthy active living and physical recreation opportunities Physical Literacy (PL); has become a global concern in the fields of physical education and recreation since its first use as a term. Experts from different countries…

  2. Planning and Marketing: Two Keys to a Recreation Center's Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, Joseph P.

    1983-01-01

    Indoor recreational facilities in Fairfax County, Virginia, owe their success to (1) development of comprehensive plans, which take into account site location, community needs, area trends, and financing possibilities, and (2) use of continuous marketing strategies. The centers are self-supporting. Each offers a variety of recreation/sports…

  3. The economic impact of recreation development: a synopsis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendell G. Breadsley

    1971-01-01

    Economic impacts per dollar of tourist expenditure have generally been found to be low compared to other economic sectors in local less-developed areas where recreation development is often proposed as a stimulus for economic growth. Tourism, however, can be economically important where potential or existing recreation attractions can encourage tourist spending in...

  4. A systematic review of recreation patterns and preferences of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Students with physical disabilities at higher education institutions are often excluded from recreational activities due to lack of appropriate inclusive integration programmes. This study systematically reviewed literature that identified recreational patterns and preferences of students with physical disabilities to provide ...

  5. Application of Pricing Strategy in the Management of Recreational Fishery

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Chen; Han, Xingyong

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the feasibility of carrying out various pricing strategies in recreational fishery management. It also introduces the four common pricing means, which are time (season) differential pricing, customer differential pricing, quantity discount and two-part tariff system. The effects of pricing strategy of recreational fishery on social welfare are studied taking time (season) differential pricing as an example.

  6. Recreation in whitebark pine ecosystems: Demand, problems, and management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Cole

    1990-01-01

    Whitebark pine ecosystems are an important element of many of the most spectacular high-elevation landscapes in the western United States. They occupy upper subalpine and timberline zones in the prime recreation lands of the Cascades, the Sierra Nevada, and the Northern Rocky Mountains. This paper explores the nature of the recreational opportunities that the whitebark...

  7. Computer Technology and Its Impact on Recreation and Sport Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Craig M.

    This paper describes several types of computer programs that can be useful to sports and recreation programs. Computerized tournament scheduling software is helpful to recreation and parks staff working with tournaments of 50 teams/individuals or more. Important features include team capacity, league formation, scheduling conflicts, scheduling…

  8. Tree Hazards Recognition and Reduction in Recreation Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    David W. Johnson

    1981-01-01

    Defective trees are potential hazards to people and property in recreation areas. Most reported tree failures within recreation sites in the Rocky Mountain Region occur in lodgepole pine. Defective root systems account for the greatest percentage of failures. External indicators of defects are used to identify trees that may fail. Some tree species, particularly aspen...

  9. An Examination of Perceived Constraints to Outdoor Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    G.T. Green; J.M. Bowker; X. Wang; H.K. Cordell; Cassandra Y. Johnson

    2009-01-01

    This study examines whether different social and marginalized groups in American society (minorities, women, rural dwellers, immigrants, low income, less educated) perceive more constraints or barriers to outdoor recreation participation than White middle-class males. Logistic regressions were applied to data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment...

  10. Leisure, Recreation, and Play from a Developmental Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Linda L.; Witt, Peter A.

    2011-01-01

    The terms "play, recreation, and leisure" can evoke thoughts of frivolity, fun, sociability, competition, slothfulness, or idleness. However, there is substantial evidence that what people do in their discretionary or free time has important developmental and health implications. In this article, the authors examine how play, recreation, and…

  11. Hospitality, Recreation, and Personal Service Occupations: Grade 8. Cluster V.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calhoun, Olivia H.

    A curriculum guide for grade 8, the document is devoted to the occupational cluster "Hospitality, Recreation, and Personal Service Occupations." It is divided into four units: recreational resources for education, employment, and professional opportunities; barbering and cosmetology; mortuary science; hotel-motel management. Each unit is…

  12. Federal outdoor recreation trends: Effects on economic opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric M. White; Michael Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Linda L. Langner; J. Ross Arnold; Don English

    2015-01-01

    Outdoor recreation plays a significant role in American lives. It provides physical challenges and well-being, helps develop lifelong skills, provokes interest and inquiry, inspires wonder and awe of the natural world, and often provides an alternative to daily routines. Recreation contributes greatly to the physical, mental, and spiritual health of individuals, bonds...

  13. Wilderness recreation participation: Projections for the next half century

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. M. Bowker; D. Murphy; H. K. Cordell; D. B. K. English; J. C. Bergstrom; C. M. Starbuck; C. J. Betz; G. T. Green; P. Reed

    2007-01-01

    This paper explores the influence of demographic and spatial variables on individual participation in wildland area recreation. Data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE) are combined with GIS-based distance measures to develop nonlinear regression models used to predict both participation and the number of days of participation in...

  14. Recreation settings, scenery, and visitor experiences: a research assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel R. Williams

    2007-01-01

    A core task of recreation research is to understand the relation between settings, scenery, and visitor experiences. This paper uses environmental psychology to describe four conceptual models underlying these relations: inherent/aesthetic, opportunity/goal-directed, symbolic, and expressive. The paper then describes some challenges to applying results to recreation...

  15. Recreation equity: Is the Forest Service serving its diverse publics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Flores; Gennaro Falco; Nina S. Roberts; Francisco P. Valenzuela

    2018-01-01

    In 2044 the United States is expected to be a majority-minority nation. Promoting participation in outdoor recreation among racial and ethnic minority populations has long been a challenge facing the contemporary recreation manager. In this article, we compare data from the US Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring program from 2010-2014 to US Census data from...

  16. Addressing Challenges to the Shared Use of School Recreational Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spengler, John O.; Connaughton, Daniel P.; Carroll, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    The shared use of school recreational facilities holds the potential to offer activity opportunities for many people, especially those in low-income, minority, and under-resourced communities. School facilities are usually easily accessible and offer safe, free or low cost, and convenient recreation and sport opportunities. However, a number of…

  17. Report of the Technical Committee for Hospitality, Tourism, Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oregon State Dept. of Education, Salem. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This color-coded committee report identifies the skills and knowledge required by employees in the hospitality/tourism/recreation occupational area. The reports of four subcommittees focused on food/beverage, hotel/motel, recreation/leisure, and travel/tourism skills are also included. Introductory materials include a general statement of the…

  18. Collegiate Recreational Sports: Pivotal Players in Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenthal, Kent J.

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the rise of modern-day collegiate recreational sports and their relevance to student learning and quality of life. The author discusses planning considerations for collegiate recreational sports facilities and the importance of these facilities as a recruitment and retention tool. (Contains 4 figures.)

  19. A Study of Ethics Education within Therapeutic Recreation Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisbett, Nancy; Brown-Welty, Sharon; O'Keefe, Cathy

    2002-01-01

    Explored the status of ethics education within therapeutic recreation. Researchers surveyed all entry-level undergraduate and graduate therapeutic recreation training programs in one state, examining responses for differences in content and delivery. Programs appeared consistent with regard to ethics instruction, integrating similar content…

  20. Adapted Physical Education and Therapeutic Recreation in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etzel-Wise, D; Mears, B

    2004-01-01

    Adapted physical education is a mandated service, whereas therapeutic recreation and traditional recreation are considered related services under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. In this article, the authors describe the distinctions between the services, recognition of need for referral, methods of assessment, sample…

  1. 78 FR 48136 - Notice of New Recreation Fee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-07

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Notice of New Recreation Fee AGENCY: Prescott National Forest, Southwestern Region, USDA Forest Service. ACTION: Notice of New Recreation Fee. SUMMARY: The Prescott National Forest is proposing to charge a fee at the new Eagle Ridge Group Campground near Prescott...

  2. Outdoor recreation in shifting societal and natural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda H. Mockrin; J. M.  Bowker; Katherine  Smith; Cindi  West

    2014-01-01

    Outdoor recreation contributes to public health, supports hundreds of thousands of jobs, and  provides billions of dollars annually to rural economies. Visitors to federal lands alone spent $51  billion in 2012 in nearby communities during their trips to recreate on public lands and waters  (Forest Service National Center for Natural Resources Economic Research 2014)....

  3. Planning Facilities for Athletics, Physical Education and Recreation. Revised.

    Science.gov (United States)

    American Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation and Dance (AAHPERD).

    This revised edition includes new material recommended by a panel of experts in the field of recreational planning. The following topics are covered: (1) the planning process; (2) indoor facilities; (3) outdoor facilities; (4) indoor and outdoor swimming pools; (5) encapsulated spaces and stadiums; (6) service areas; (7) recreation and park…

  4. Projecting the visual carrying capacity of recreation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas J. Nieman; Jane L. Futrell

    1979-01-01

    The aesthetic experience of people utilizing the recreational resources of the national parks and forests of the United States is of primary importance since a large percentage of perception is visual. Undesirable intrusions into this sphere of perception substantially reduce the level of enjoyment or satisfaction derived from the recreation experience. Perceived...

  5. A model for evaluating dispersed outdoor recreation use estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley J. Zarnoch; Donald B. K. English; Susan M. Kocis

    2004-01-01

    An outdoor recreation use simulator (ORUS) has been developed to simulate dispersed recreation survey data similar to that collected by the National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) Project's survey of the national forests of the U.S.A. Statistical distributions are used to represent the various behaviors of recreationists during their visit to a dispersed area. The...

  6. A content analysis of USDA Forest Service recreation partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Selin

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service has been implementing a partnership initiative for 6 years as part of the National Recreation Strategy. Several internal efforts have been undertaken to evaluate the progress made in this initiative as well as to make adjustments in the initiative for the future. These evaluation efforts are extended to present a content analysis of recreation...

  7. Locating opportunities for outdoor action and adventure recreation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper indicates how modern spatial computing technology can be used for developing spatial policy for, and planning of outdoor action and adventure recreation and tourism (OAART). An application was performed in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The research overviews spatial recreation and tourism ...

  8. Demographic Variables and Recreational Substance Use Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, B. Robert; Davis, Jaime L.

    1988-01-01

    Examined relationship between demographic variables and recreational substance use in college students (N=832). Results revealed that persons using certain recreational substances differed significantly from nonusers. Marijuana users differed from nonusers on parental income, high school grade point average, and political orientation. No…

  9. 77 FR 15994 - Southern Region Recreation Resource Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Southern Region Recreation Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting via teleconference. SUMMARY: The Southern Region... and requests to Southern Region Recreation RAC, Caroline Mitchell, P.O. Box 1270, Hot Springs, AR...

  10. A method for explaining trends in river recreation demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    George L. Peterson; David W. Lime; Dorothy H. Anderson

    1980-01-01

    Data being collected by The National River Recreation Study (NRRS) (U.S. Forest Service, St. Paul) includes origin-destination information for recreational visits to a variety of rivers nationwide. Such data are being collected over several years during a time of rapidly changing energy costs, economic conditions and consumer attitudes. This presents an opportunity to...

  11. Contested identities: Identity constructions in a youth recreational drug culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Signe

    2012-01-01

    as responsible drug users. The article studies this recreational drug culture and its internal distinctions, conceptions and norms as they are expressed discursively. The analysis identifies six dimensions of the identity as a responsible, recreational drug user: drug practice, general drug knowledge, context...

  12. 40 CFR 230.52 - Water-related recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Section 230.52 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) OCEAN DUMPING SECTION... Effects on Human Use Characteristics § 230.52 Water-related recreation. (a) Water-related recreation.... canoeing and sight-seeing. (b) Possible loss of values: One of the more important direct impacts of dredged...

  13. An Analysis of the Demand for and Value of Outdoor Recreation in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergstrom, John C.; Cordell, H. Ken

    1991-01-01

    Results of a study of demand equations for 37 outdoor recreational activities using a multicommunity, multisite travel cost model suggest that determinants of the demand for outdoor recreation include population, residence, income, age, price, quality, and recreational opportunity substitutes. (JD)

  14. Some economic aspects of recreational injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arundel, J T

    1974-06-01

    This paper deals with some basic features of accidents in recreation and will attempt to throw some light on their economic consequences. Let us examine sport as one aspect of recreation. As Williams (1973) put it, "Sport is a phenomenon of simple definition, but with well recognised features. It is essentially recreational, essentially physical, frequently competitive and always contrived." The number and type of participants has increased, along with the range of activities available. Classifications of sport, at best, are arbitrary but nevertheless are useful for analysis. These divisions may be land/air/water types; indoor/outdoor; team/individual; body contact/non-contact/vehicular; amateur/professional. Sports injuries are of two types, intrinsic or self-inflicted (Williams, 1973) and extrinsic. Intrinsic injuries refer to those as a result of over-use (leading, for example, to stress fractures) and to specific incidents not involving outside agents. Extrinsic injuries are caused by contact with external objects and form the bulk of injuries sustained in body-contact, vehicular (horses, cars, skis) and environmental-type sports. Extrinsic injuries are generally more severe because greater forces and velocities are involved. Appendix 1 lists the main sporting activities according to location of sport; individual or team participation; likelihood of extensive body contact; and professional status. Professional players not only suffer loss of earning capacity but may reflect a bad investment for an entrepreneur or reduce spectator attendance and gate taking. It is apparent that team sports, having substantial body contact, face a higher risk of moderate to serious injury than do individual, non-contact sports, although major injuries can be sustained in the latter, for example, sprains and dislocations in athletics, golf, tennis, etc. Other sports must be classed as dangerous because of the nature of competition, for example, motor racing and flying. These

  15. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  16. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  18. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  19. Physical recreation in a structure of active rest of students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaytzev V.P.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Experience of authors is generalized on issue «Physical recreation»: concept, facilities, forms and methods of physical culture that is used in physical recreation and offered for the students some recommendation on their realization. In the process of forming motive activity it is necessary to take into account both favourable and unfavorable social factors, and during practical work - such directions: hygienic, health-improving recreation, general preparatory and medical. It is presented bases of physical recreation of students: construction of the complex program, development of valeological and recreation measures; joint creative activity of teachers and students and at the same time use of modern methods of health forming technologies.

  20. A Survey on Common Injuries in Recreational Badminton Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Muttalib

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this descriptive study is to determine the incidence of injuries among recreational badminton players. We evaluated 86 recreational badminton players in the city of Malacca; 35 were excluded for fitting the exclusion criteria. The average recreational badminton player was 36.13 years old and had been playing badminton for the past 17.84 years at a frequency of 2.11 times per week. 39.21% of the recreational badminton players complained of recent injuries in relation to playing badminton. Our data showed that the most common injury sustained by recreational badminton players was pain and stiffness at the shoulder joint. None of the injuries sustained by the players in our data were serious enough to warrant any form of surgical intervention. We conclude that badminton is a sport of relatively low risk and that the majority of related injuries were chronic overuse injuries.

  1. Periurban forests shifting from recreation to wellness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Papillon

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In France and in Europe, periurban forests are subject to high social demands for recreational purposes. These demands take the form of frequent visits for sports or rest. Local governments have succeeded in creating new wooded parks close to cities that are highly appreciated by the population. A survey was run on visitors to forests around three mid-sized cities, addressing what they do in the forests and why. The answers revealed differences between suburban parks and larger national forests located farther from the cities. New approaches targeting health may also be observed on the part of both individuals and the health sector. These new approaches indicate the existence of a wellness function in periurban forests.

  2. Recreating the aftermath of the Big Bang

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    A few microseconds after the Big Bang, the Universe was most likely a fiery soup of quarks and gluons – the quark-gluon plasma, or 'quagma' – with the gluons carrying the inter-quark 'colour' force. As this cooled, quarks froze into 'colourless' bricks of nuclear matter – protons, neutrons and other strongly interacting particles – and have remained this way ever since. However in the past few years, Brookhaven and CERN began supplying experiments with high energy beams of heavy nuclei. When such heavy projectiles slam into nuclear targets, the component quarks might be squeezed together and heated, breaking loose and recreating, fleetingly, something approaching quark-gluon plasma

  3. Influences of recreation influence of forest and rangeland management on anadromous fish habitat in Western North America: influences of recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger N. Clark; Dave R. Gibbons; Gilbert B. Pauley

    1985-01-01

    Public and private lands in the United States are used by millions of people for recreational activities. Many of these activities occur in or near streams and coastal areas that produce various species of anadromous fish. A major concern of fishery managers is the possible adverse effect of recreational uses on fish habitat. Conversely, the management of fish habitats...

  4. The 1992 Vermont recreation survey and environmental index: Vermonters' perceptions of recreational and environmental issues in Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin R. Wiberg; Frederick E. Schmidt; Robert E. Manning; Susan Bulmer

    1995-01-01

    In 1992, Vermonters rated the state's recreational resources a "B-" with a corresponding grade of "B" for the quality of the state's environment. Scenic resources continued to be rated most highly as were state trails and commercial recreation establishments. Concern for water resource quality, solid and toxic waste disposal, acid rain,...

  5. Recreational Value of an Oasis in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekri, Slim; Mbaga, Msafiri; Fouzai, Ayoub; Al-Shaqsi, Saif

    2011-07-01

    Increasing demand for water to develop non-agricultural activities is causing water to be diverted to high-value uses at the expense of irrigation. However, agriculture provides a flow of amenities in the desert environment which are not either accounted or paid. Oases are spread all over the globe and are threatened for various reasons among which is the high pressure of demand for fresh water. This paper estimates the recreation use value of an oasis. The paper is based on the Misfat Al-Abryeen oasis in Oman, a man-made area of streams and woodland. The travel cost method is used through an on-site questionnaire distributed to 230 visitors. Around 75% of visitors to the oasis also visited other historical or ecological sites during the same day-trip. The econometric model is estimated using negative binomial regression with endogenous stratification. The average consumer surplus, or benefit, from visiting Misfat Al-Abryeen is estimated at US 104.74 per individual per trip. The total social benefit from this oasis is estimated at 366,590 per year. These results underscore the importance of the role played by irrigated agriculture in the provision of amenity services for the tourism sector in a desert environment. The sustainability of the irrigation activity depends on the recognition of the recreation role of oases and the transfer of part of these benefits to the farmers who maintain the irrigation system. The implementation of an entrance fee to the oasis might increase farmers' profit by 6-21%.

  6. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentham, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  7. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  8. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  9. Environmental analysis and monitoring for recreational farms in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Wen-Chuan; Lin, Chun-Nan; Wongchai, Anupong

    2017-11-01

    The rapid growth of recreational farms and leisure industry has fiercely faced competitive in a Taiwan’s market to achieve business development sustainability trends. Effective business development strategy has become a key of the business performance management to help develop and implement growth opportunities. Recreational farms have functional products, culture, and natural resources as essential elements for the business development of local cuisine. The purpose of this study is, based on the SWOT analysis, to understand the current situation of catering business in recreational farms in Taiwan and to analyze the trends in development to discover how to operate local food restaurant business in recreational farms successfully and create long-term value for a business from customers, markets, and related parties. This research collected a total of 300 questionnaires from recreational farm tourists and excellent recreational farm entrepreneurs, as well as on-site staffs in an outstanding recreational farm. The results of this study provided a reference and guidelines of trends in development for the entrepreneurs to create a modern niche market.

  10. Democracy predicts sport and recreation membership: Insights from 52 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balish, Shea M

    2017-03-01

    Although evidence suggests sport and recreation are powerful contributors to worldwide public health, sizable gender differences persist. It is unknown whether country characteristics moderate gender differences across countries. The primary purpose of this study was to examine if countries' levels of democracy and/or gender inequality moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. The secondary purpose was to examine if democracy and/or gender inequality predicts overall rates of sport and recreation membership for both males and females. This study involved a nested cross-sectional design and employed the sixth wave (2013) of the world value survey (n Ss =71,901, n countries =52). Multiple hierarchal nonlinear Bernoulli models tested: (1) if countries' levels of democracy moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership; and (2) if democracy is associated with increased sport and recreation membership for both males and females. Countries' level of democracy fully moderated gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. Moreover, democracy was positively associated with both male and female membership, even when controlling for individual and country-level covariates. Democratic political regimes may confer health benefits via increased levels of sport and recreation membership, especially for females. Future research should test mediating mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Benefits of sporting and recreational content in tourism animation programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Saša

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sports and recreational activity programmes in tourism are an important part of modern animation and tourism offer, causing great curiosity and interest of tourists in their implementation, as they are related to the use of available opportunities to maintain and increase the tourists' psychological and physical health. They are based on some of the fundamental principles of efficient tourism animation activities (freedom of choice, suitability to inclinations and preferences, direct involvement of tourists in realisation, interpersonal communication, dynamics of this tourist segment, etc. Such treatment of sporting and recreational programme, in addition to realistic expectations in terms of strengthening of the body and spirit through their realisation, make consideration of the benefits of sporting and recreational contents in programmes of tourist animation, as well as the role and importance of sporting and recreational animation programmes in tourism, extremely useful and justified. In this context, starting from the knowledge that health can not only be preserved, but also improved, this paper primarily treats issues related to building of adequate motivation of tourists for the realization of programmed sporting and recreational contents; for a direct involvement of tourists in the realization of sporting and recreational animation programmes; as well as issues related to health effects, as the most important outcomes and goals of realisation of sporting and recreational contents in tourism animation programmes.

  12. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  13. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  14. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  15. A Note on Unified Statistics Including Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and Tsallis Statistics, and Plausible Extension to Anisotropic Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christianto V.

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available In the light of some recent hypotheses suggesting plausible unification of thermostatistics where Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein and Tsallis statistics become its special subsets, we consider further plausible extension to include non-integer Hausdorff dimension, which becomes realization of fractal entropy concept. In the subsequent section, we also discuss plausible extension of this unified statistics to include anisotropic effect by using quaternion oscillator, which may be observed in the context of Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation. Further observation is of course recommended in order to refute or verify this proposition.

  16. Assessing the value of recreational divers for censusing elasmobranchs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine A Ward-Paige

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Around the world, researchers are using the observations and experiences of citizens to describe patterns in animal populations. This data is often collected via ongoing sampling or by synthesizing past experiences. Since elasmobranchs are relatively rare, obtaining data for broad-scale trend analysis requires high sampling effort. Elasmobranchs are also relatively large and conspicuous and therefore it may be possible to enlist recreational divers to collect data on their occurrence and relative abundance from daily dive activities. For this, however, a good understanding of the value of data collected by recreational divers is essential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we explore the value of recreational divers for censusing elasmobranchs using a diverse set of data sources. First, we use a simulation experiment to explore detection rates of the roving diver technique, used by recreational divers, across a range of fish densities and speeds. Next, using a field survey, we show that inexperienced recreational divers detect and count elasmobranchs as well as experienced recreational divers. Finally, we use semi-structured interviews of recreational dive instructors to demonstrate the value of their recollections in terms of effort and their descriptions of spatial and temporal distributions of sharks in Thailand. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, this study provides initial ground-work for using recreational divers for monitoring elasmobranch populations. If used appropriately, citizen-collected data may provide additional information that can be used to complement more standardized surveys and to describe population trends across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Due to the non-extractive nature of this data, recreational divers may also provide important insight into the success of conservation initiatives, such as shark sanctuaries and no-take zones.

  17. Physical-recreational activities and persons with disability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potić Srećko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recreational activities represent individual or organized group activities chosen by free will, which help individuals to maintain good health, physical and working condition. In addition to the required physical segment, recreation also includes mental component which refers to strengthening of the will and determination, acquisition and development of self-control. With physical and mental aspect of recreational activities, many authors especially emphasize the importance of socio-psychological component of recreation. The aim of this paper is to review the so far published scientific and professional works in which the problem of recreational activities of persons with cerebral palsy, sight impairment, intellectual disability and autism is discussed, by studying the available literature. During the research we used the electronic data base of Serbian Library Consortium for Coordinated Acquisition, Google Scholar, as well as published material available in print. The participation of persons with disabilities in physical-recreational activities in the community is determined by the individual characteristics of the person, but with the community factors as well. The results of many studies show that persons with disabilities participate less in leisure and physical recreational activities and that is largely related to the level of social integration of these persons. Taking into account the fact that the participation of persons with disabilities in physical-recreational activities largely correlates with the quality of life of these persons, it is necessary to increase the number of recreational services that the community offers, as well as to specialise, modify and adapt some of them in relation to the needs of these persons. Also, it is recommended that as an integral part of all therapeutic approaches to persons with disability, the training of these persons for the appropriate use of their leisure time be included.

  18. Effects of recreational football on women's fitness and health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krustrup, Peter; Helge, Eva Wulff; Hansen, Peter Riis

    2018-01-01

    The review describes the fitness and health effects of recreational football in women aged 18-65 years. The review documents that 2 × 1 h of recreational football training for 12-16 weeks causes marked improvements in maximal oxygen uptake (5-15%) and myocardial function in women. Moreover, mean......-intensity interval training (HIIT), endurance training and strength training, thereby providing optimal stimuli for cardiovascular, metabolic and musculoskeletal fitness. Recreational football, therefore, seems to be an effective tool for prevention and treatment of lifestyle diseases in young and middle-aged women...

  19. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

  20. Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

    1995-08-01

    The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

  1. Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

  2. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  3. Scenario-visualization for the assessment of perceived green space qualities at the urban-rural fringe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid; Brewer, Mark J

    2008-11-01

    The provision of green space is increasingly being perceived as an important factor for quality of life. However, green spaces often face high developmental pressure. The main objective of this study is to investigate a prospective approach to green space planning by combining three-dimensional (3D) visualization of green space scenarios and survey techniques to facilitate improved participation of the public. Aside from the 'Status quo', scenarios 'Agriculture', 'Recreation', 'Nature conservation' and 'Wind turbines' are visualized in three dimensions. In order to test responses, a survey was conducted both in print format and on the Internet. Overall, 49 different visualizations that belong to one of the scenarios were available in the survey and were rated according to the perceived esthetic, recreational and ecological values. The highest rated scenes include vegetation elements such as meadows with orchards, single trees, shrubs or forest. The least attractive scenes are those where buildings are highly dominant or where there are no vegetation elements. Based on the ratings for the individual images and on the corresponding scenarios, our study shows that there is high potential for improving the existing landscape. All suggested changes are either rated about equal to or considerably higher than the status quo, with the scenario 'Nature conservation' receiving the highest scores.

  4. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  5. The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in loss of coolant accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Y.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.

    2009-01-01

    The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gases and/or aerosols for LOCA scenarios is introduced. This phenomenon is planned to be investigated at Paul Scherrer Institute in the ARTIST/RFLX experimental program. The plausible accident scenarios associated with the once-through reflux condensation are analyzed with MELCOR to study the safety significance and the boundary conditions of this phenomenon. This work presents the recent PSI experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation: the progress of modification to the ARTIST test facility for the purpose to study reflux condensation, and the analytical model for the once-through reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gas using the heat and mass transfer analogy approach. Future experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation is also outlined. (author)

  6. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  7. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  8. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  9. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  10. Recreating Galileo's 1609 Discovery of Lunar Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasachoff, Jay M.; Needham, Paul S.; Wright, Ernest T.; Gingerich, Owen

    2014-11-01

    The question of exactly which lunar features persuaded Galileo that there were mountains on the moon has not yet been definitively answered; Galileo was famously more interested in the concepts rather than the topographic mapping in his drawings and the eventual engravings. Since the pioneering work of Ewen Whitaker on trying to identify which specific lunar-terminator features were those that Galileo identified as mountains on the moon in his 1609 observations reported in his Sidereus Nuncius (Venice, 1610), and since the important work on the sequence of Galileo's observations by Owen Gingerich (see "The Mystery of the Missing 2" in Galilaeana IX, 2010, in which he concludes that "the Florentine bifolium sheet [with Galileo's watercolor images] is Galileo's source for the reworked lunar diagrams in Sidereus Nuncius"), there have been advances in lunar topographical measurements that should advance the discussion. In particular, one of us (E.T.W.) at the Scientific Visualization Studio of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has used laser-topography from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to recreate what Galileo would have seen over a sequence of dates in late November and early December 1609, and provided animations both at native resolution and at the degraded resolution that Galileo would have observed with his telescope. The Japanese Kaguya spacecraft also provides modern laser-mapped topographical maps.

  11. Social capital in an outdoor recreation context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Marilynne; Leahy, Jessica

    2010-02-01

    This study examined social capital development in three all-terrain vehicles (ATV) clubs in Maine using an adapted version of Lin's (2001) social capital theory model. The structural components of social capital identified included collective assets and individual assets in the form of normative behavior and trust relationships. Also identified were counter-norms for individual ATV riders identified as having divergent norms from club members. The second component of social capital is access to and mobilization of network contacts and resources. Access networks in the context of the ATV clubs studied were identified as community and landowner relations while mobilization of resources was existent in club membership attempts toward self-governance and efforts of the statewide "umbrella" organization. Instrumental outcomes benefit society and expressive outcomes benefit the individual. Both types of returns are present in the data suggesting that ATV clubs are creating social capital. This is important information to clubs who desire to market themselves, improve their reputations, and enhance their volunteer association. It is of further interest to state governments who fund clubs through trail grants as proof that a return on investment is being realized. Theoretical and applied implications for these and other types of recreation-based volunteer associations (e.g., clubs, friends groups, advocacy groups) are presented.

  12. Social Capital in an Outdoor Recreation Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Marilynne; Leahy, Jessica

    2010-02-01

    This study examined social capital development in three all-terrain vehicles (ATV) clubs in Maine using an adapted version of Lin’s (2001) social capital theory model. The structural components of social capital identified included collective assets and individual assets in the form of normative behavior and trust relationships. Also identified were counter-norms for individual ATV riders identified as having divergent norms from club members. The second component of social capital is access to and mobilization of network contacts and resources. Access networks in the context of the ATV clubs studied were identified as community and landowner relations while mobilization of resources was existent in club membership attempts toward self-governance and efforts of the statewide “umbrella” organization. Instrumental outcomes benefit society and expressive outcomes benefit the individual. Both types of returns are present in the data suggesting that ATV clubs are creating social capital. This is important information to clubs who desire to market themselves, improve their reputations, and enhance their volunteer association. It is of further interest to state governments who fund clubs through trail grants as proof that a return on investment is being realized. Theoretical and applied implications for these and other types of recreation-based volunteer associations (e.g., clubs, friends groups, advocacy groups) are presented.

  13. Craniomaxillofacial fractures during recreational baseball and softball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bak, Matthew J; Doerr, Timothy D

    2004-10-01

    Baseball and softball are leading causes of sports-related facial trauma in the United States. We review our institutional experience (Strong Memorial Hospital, Rochester, NY) with these injuries and discuss measures to reduce their incidence. We review our institutions experience with facial fractures sustained during the course of a softball or baseball game over a 12-year period. A total of 38 patients were identified and medical records analyzed for patient demographics, type of impact, and fracture location. The male-to-female ratio was 3.2:1; mean age was 24.2 years, with 17 (45%) of the injuries occurring in the pediatric population. The majority of the injuries were caused by direct impact with the ball (68%), while player-player collisions (18%) and impact from a swung bat (13%) were responsible for the remaining injuries. There were a total of 39 fractures; 18 fractures (46%) involved the midface (level 2), skull (level 1) fractures accounted for 12 (31%), while 9 (23%) were mandibular (level 3) fractures. With 68% of the injuries resulting from a ball impact, we endorse the recommendations of the Consumer Product Safety Commission for the use of low-impact National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment-approved baseballs and softballs for youth and recreational leagues.

  14. Puget Sound Recreational Shellfish Harvesting Survey - Model Intended Angler Behavior

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collect and analyze survey data from recreational saltwater fishermen in Oregon and Washington. Model trip demand using stated frequency / contingent behavior data....

  15. Social, recreational and housing habits of residents of Selebi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... housing habits of residents of Selebi-Phikwe nickel – copper mining environment, Botswana. ... Primary data of residents obtained through the administration of ... African Journal for Physical, Health Education, Recreation and Dance Vol.

  16. Chronic Recreational Physical Inactivity and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cannioto, Rikki; LaMonte, Michael J.; Risch, Harvey A

    2016-01-01

    physical activity and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is less clear. Despite extensive research, including several epidemiological studies and 2 systematic reviews, insufficient and inconsistent evidence is available to support an independent association between recreational physical activity and risk......It is estimated that 5% of women in the United States and 10% to 50% of women worldwide are physically inactive. Previous studies have demonstrated that recreational physical activity is associated with decreased risks of developing breast, colon, and endometrial cancers. The association between...... of EOC. This is largely due to use of common methodology in most studies that overlooks recreational physical inactivity as an independent risk factor for EOC. The aim of this study was to determine whether self-reported, chronic, recreational physical inactivity is an independent risk factor...

  17. Comparative recreational assessment of Karaganda city public green spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akylbekova, I. S.; Zengina, T. Yu

    2018-01-01

    This article represents evaluation of recreation environment on the territory of the large industrial city of Karaganda, located in the dry steppe zone of Central Kazakhstan. A comparison of quantitative and qualitative indicators, level of recreational attractiveness and providing the citizens with public green spaces, allowed to make a more complete characterization the urban recreation places and to identify the city districts, which require prioritized fundraising for development of existing parks and public gardens, and for creation of new territories of recreational purpose. Based on the results of conducted expert assessment and sociological survey of visitors, the main problems of urban green areas were identified and also the most high-demand trends and practical recommendations for their improvement and further use were proposed.

  18. The benefits of improving recreation quality and quantity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A; Holmes, R

    1994-07-01

    Of all valuation areas in environmental economics, studies addressing the nonmarketed services of recreation (mostly fishing and mostly salt water-based) are by far the most prevalent, owing to the early insight on valuation methods offered by the Clawson travel cost model; the theoretical complexities, and thus the academic attractiveness of estimating benefits in this area; many government funders; and widely available data. To give some idea of the magnitude of work in this area, Smith and Kaoru (1990) performed a meta-analysis on 77 studies of recreation demand, and Walsh, Johnson, and McKean 1988) reviewed 120 studies of the value of various types of recreation-activity days. Most of these studies pertain to individual sites or clusters of sites in a region. Some seek estimates of national recreation benefits.

  19. The benefits of improving recreation quality and quantity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.; Holmes, R.

    1994-01-01

    Of all valuation areas in environmental economics, studies addressing the nonmarketed services of recreation (mostly fishing and mostly salt water-based) are by far the most prevalent, owing to the early insight on valuation methods offered by the Clawson travel cost model; the theoretical complexities, and thus the academic attractiveness of estimating benefits in this area; many government funders; and widely available data. To give some idea of the magnitude of work in this area, Smith and Kaoru (1990) performed a meta-analysis on 77 studies of recreation demand, and Walsh, Johnson, and McKean 1988) reviewed 120 studies of the value of various types of recreation-activity days. Most of these studies pertain to individual sites or clusters of sites in a region. Some seek estimates of national recreation benefits

  20. Assessment of working women's perception and pursuit of recreation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of working women's perception and pursuit of recreation. ... Africa, to participate in two focus group interviews at the workplace of the respondents. ... Three underlying themes, namely barriers, benefits, and attitude and pursuits ...

  1. Recreational impacts on Colorado River beaches in Glen Canyon, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carothers, Steven W.; Johnson, Robert A.; Dolan, Robert

    1984-07-01

    Recreational impact was measured on eight beaches in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and 15 beaches in Grand Canyon National Park using permanently located transects and plots. Recreational impact indices included densities of human trash and charcoal and a measure of sand discoloration due to charcoal. Significant increases in the indices occurred on several Glen Canyon beaches over a seven-month period. Sand discoloration became significantly higher over all Glen Canyon beaches during the same time period. All indices were significantly higher in Glen Canyon than on similar Grand Canyon beaches. These differences are probably due to differences in: (a) level of impacts tolerated by the respective management regimes and, (b) in the number of user days among the two National Park Service administrative units. Management alternatives are presented for reversing the present trends of recreational impact on Glen Canyon beaches.

  2. Chronic recreational physical inactivity and epithelial ovarian cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cannioto, Rikki; LaMonte, Michael J.; Risch, Harvey A

    2016-01-01

    . We conducted a pooled analysis of nine studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium to investigate the association between chronic recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk. Methods: In accordance with the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, women reporting no regular......Background: Despite a large body of literature evaluating the association between recreational physical activity and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk, the extant evidence is inconclusive, and little is known about the independent association between recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk......, weekly recreational physical activity were classified as inactive. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to estimate the ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between inactivity and EOC risk overall and by subgroups based upon histotype, menopausal status, race, and body mass...

  3. The 1997 Marine Corps Morale, Welfare, and Recreation Needs Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Culbertson, Amy

    1998-01-01

    .... In addition, use of the exchange, fitness and recreation facilities/services, food and hospitality facilities/services, and various other services offered on-base (e.g., barber shop) are described...

  4. VT Green Mountain National Forest National Recreation Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) This dataset includes National Recreation Areas (NRAs) designated by Congress on the Green Mountain National Forest (GMNF) as of 2006. There are...

  5. Northeast Groundfish Recreational demand survey of anglers, ME through NJ

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in conjunction with NMFS’ Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) along the coastal states of...

  6. Northeast Groundfish Recreational Fishing Demand Survey (ME, MA, NH)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in conjunction with NMFS’ Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) along the coastal states of...

  7. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  8. The Rural Recreation Integration Project: Reaching Out with Interactive Video Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Lynn; And Others

    1996-01-01

    North Dakota's Rural Recreation Integration Project disseminates innovative training and technical assistance from therapeutic recreation specialists to recreation and human service providers. The information helps facilitate the inclusion of people with disabilities into recreation/leisure activities. To make the training accessible, they use the…

  9. Democracy predicts sport and recreation membership: Insights from 52 countries

    OpenAIRE

    Balish, Shea M.

    2017-01-01

    Although evidence suggests sport and recreation are powerful contributors to worldwide public health, sizable gender differences persist. It is unknown whether country characteristics moderate gender differences across countries. The primary purpose of this study was to examine if countries’ levels of democracy and/or gender inequality moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. The secondary purpose was to examine if democracy and/or gender inequality pre...

  10. Gender Differences in Recreational Sports Participation among Taiwanese Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Tsai, Liang-Ting; Lo, Feng-En; Yang, Chih-Chien; Keller, Joseph Jordan; Lyu, Shu-Yu

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the gender differences in the enjoyment of recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults. Data were obtained using the 2007 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The questionnaire included a topical module of the International Social Survey Program regarding leisure time and sports. Results showed that male subjects were more likely to participate in recreational sports to improve their appearance and on account of their personal interest. In addition to these factors, f...

  11. Sensation seeking in males involved in recreational high risk sports

    OpenAIRE

    M Guszkowska; A Bołdak

    2010-01-01

    The study examined sensation seeking intensity level in males involved in recreational high risk sports and investigated whether its level depends on type of sport practised. Additionally, in case of parachutists, sport experience of study participants were scrutinised with regard to its possible impact on the level of sensation seeking.The research involved 217 males aged 17 to 45, practising recreational high risk sports, namely: parachuting (n=98); wakeboarding (n=30); snowboarding (n=30);...

  12. Estuarine beaches of the Amazon coast: environmental and recreational characterization

    OpenAIRE

    de Sousa, Rosigleyse C.; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; Jiménez Quintana, José Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The Amazon coast is rich in natural resources, with highly valued natural landscapes and ecological systems. These environments include estuarine beaches, which are important areas for recreational activities. The present study provides an environmental and recreational diagnosis of three of these estuarine beaches on the Amazon coast (Colares, Maruda, and Murubira). The study was conducted in July, 2012, 2013 and 2015. An set of variables was assessed: (i) physical variables (hydrodynamics),...

  13. Long-term projections of backcountry recreation use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ken Cordell; J.M. Bowker

    2013-01-01

    Management of wildcrnc!>s and other backcountry lands can be more sure-footed if some notion of what the future will hold is revealed. An important part of what future is recreational use of these lands. Some have argued that per capita nature-based recreation use has been declining and ma} continue doing so in the future (Pergams and Zaradic 2008). Harris (2012)...

  14. The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

  15. Strategic planning of forest recreation and nature tourisme

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, Simon; Cieszewska, Agata; Castro, José

    2009-01-01

    In an increasingly urbanized world more and more people are turning to our forests and woodland for recreation and tourism. Planning and providing for this growing demand poses challenges that need to be addressed by managers and designers alike. Based on a study of forest recreation from across Europe, the editors bring together the expertise of more than eighty leading professionals and academics to provide a clear and concise guide to best practice. Case studies and careful research gi...

  16. Engaging recreational fishers in management and conservation: global case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granek, E F; Madin, E M P; Brown, M A; Figueira, W; Cameron, D S; Hogan, Z; Kristianson, G; de Villiers, P; Williams, J E; Post, J; Zahn, S; Arlinghaus, R

    2008-10-01

    Globally, the number of recreational fishers is sizeable and increasing in many countries. Associated with this trend is the potential for negative impacts on fish stocks through exploitation or management measures such as stocking and introduction of non-native fishes. Nevertheless, recreational fishers can be instrumental in successful fisheries conservation through active involvement in, or initiation of, conservation projects to reduce both direct and external stressors contributing to fishery declines. Understanding fishers' concerns for sustained access to the resource and developing methods for their meaningful participation can have positive impacts on conservation efforts. We examined a suite of case studies that demonstrate successful involvement of recreational fishers in conservation and management activities that span developed and developing countries, temperate and tropical regions, marine and freshwater systems, and open- and closed-access fisheries. To illustrate potential benefits and challenges of involving recreational fishers in fisheries management and conservation, we examined the socioeconomic and ecological contexts of each case study. We devised a conceptual framework for the engagement of recreational fishers that targets particular types of involvement (enforcement, advocacy, conservation, management design [type and location], research, and monitoring) on the basis of degree of stakeholder stewardship, scale of the fishery, and source of impacts (internal or external). These activities can be enhanced by incorporating local knowledge and traditions, taking advantage of leadership and regional networks, and creating collaborations among various stakeholder groups, scientists, and agencies to maximize the probability of recreational fisher involvement and project success.

  17. Assessing the recreational demand for agricultural land in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. POUTA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available It is widely assumed that the scenic attractiveness and other public good aspects of agricultural land can be utilized as a source of livelihood in rural areas in the form of recreation and tourism. In this study we use two approaches to consider whether agricultural landscapes are preferred as a destination for recreation (day trips and rural tourism (overnight trips. We first analyse the choice of recreation site type based on a model that aggregates sites using the presence of agricultural land as an aggregation variable. Population survey data on recreation trips reveal an association between the respondent’s living environment, recreational activities and visit characteristics and the probability of choosing a destination with agricultural land. Second, we also estimate the demand functions for trips to agricultural sites and other destination types to consider whether the presence of agricultural land, as opposed to other land use categories, increases the number of trips and the benefits of recreation. The results suggest that agricultural landscapes are inferior to alternative site types in terms of per-trip benefits. However, agricultural landscapes are associated with high annual benefits because of the high rate of visitation.;

  18. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  19. 75 FR 26196 - Notice of Proposed New Recreation Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-11

    .... A $60 annual pass will also be available for purchase by the public. This annual pass could be used... of the facility and allow additional amenities to be added to enhance the recreational experience at...

  20. National Economic Development Procedures Manual - Recreation. Volume 4. Evaluating Changes in the Quality of the Recreation Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-07-31

    harvesting and road building in two national forests. The case study sites were the Siuslaw National Forest near Corvallis, Oregon, and the Porcupine ...million would accrue to recreational and commercial anglers from the clearcutting alternative. For the Porcupine - Hyalite Wilderness Study Area in Montana...impact environmental factors (e.g., available habitat, hunting area, or size of elk herds ), and ultimately those quality factors of the recreation

  1. Gene-ontology enrichment analysis in two independent family-based samples highlights biologically plausible processes for autism spectrum disorders.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Anney, Richard J L

    2012-02-01

    Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated a range of genes from discrete biological pathways in the aetiology of autism. However, despite the strong influence of genetic factors, association studies have yet to identify statistically robust, replicated major effect genes or SNPs. We apply the principle of the SNP ratio test methodology described by O\\'Dushlaine et al to over 2100 families from the Autism Genome Project (AGP). Using a two-stage design we examine association enrichment in 5955 unique gene-ontology classifications across four groupings based on two phenotypic and two ancestral classifications. Based on estimates from simulation we identify excess of association enrichment across all analyses. We observe enrichment in association for sets of genes involved in diverse biological processes, including pyruvate metabolism, transcription factor activation, cell-signalling and cell-cycle regulation. Both genes and processes that show enrichment have previously been examined in autistic disorders and offer biologically plausibility to these findings.

  2. Clinical toxicology of newer recreational drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Simon L; Thomas, Simon H L

    2011-10-01

    Novel synthetic 'designer' drugs with stimulant, ecstasy-like (entactogenic) and/or hallucinogenic properties have become increasingly popular among recreational drug users in recent years. The substances used change frequently in response to market trends and legislative controls and it is an important challenge for poisons centres and clinical toxicologists to remain updated on the pharmacological and toxicological effects of these emerging agents. To review the available information on newer synthetic stimulant, entactogenic and hallucinogenic drugs, provide a framework for classification of these drugs based on chemical structure and describe their pharmacology and clinical toxicology. A comprehensive review of the published literature was performed using PUBMED and Medline databases, together with additional non-peer reviewed information sources, including books, media reports, government publications and internet resources, including drug user web forums. Novel synthetic stimulant, entactogenic or hallucinogenic designer drugs are increasingly available to users as demonstrated by user surveys, poisons centre calls, activity on internet drug forums, hospital attendance data and mortality data. Some population sub groups such as younger adults who attend dance music clubs are more likely to use these substances. The internet plays an important role in determining the awareness of and availability of these newer drugs of abuse. Most novel synthetic stimulant, entactogenic or hallucinogenic drugs of abuse can be classified according to chemical structure as piperazines (e.g. benzylpiperazine (BZP), trifluoromethylphenylpiperazine), phenethylamines (e.g. 2C or D-series of ring-substituted amfetamines, benzodifurans, cathinones, aminoindans), tryptamines (e.g. dimethyltryptamine, alpha-methyltryptamine, ethyltryptamine, 5-methoxy-alphamethyltryptamine) or piperidines and related substances (e.g. desoxypipradrol, diphenylprolinol). Alternatively classification may

  3. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  4. Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

    2014-03-15

    In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  6. Child development and pediatric sport and recreational injuries by age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwebel, David C; Brezausek, Carl M

    2014-01-01

    In 2010, 8.6 million children were treated for unintentional injuries in American emergency departments. Child engagement in sports and recreation offers many health benefits but also exposure to injury risks. In this analysis, we consider possible developmental risk factors in a review of age, sex, and incidence of 39 sport and recreational injuries. To assess (1) how the incidence of 39 sport and recreational injuries changed through each year of child and adolescent development, ages 1 to 18 years, and (2) sex differences. Design : Descriptive epidemiology study. Emergency department visits across the United States, as reported in the 2001-2008 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System database. Data represent population-wide emergency department visits in the United States. Main Outcome Measure(s) : Pediatric sport- and recreation-related injuries requiring treatment in hospital emergency departments. Almost 37 pediatric sport or recreational injuries are treated hourly in the United States. The incidence of sport- and recreation-related injuries peaks at widely different ages. Team-sport injuries tend to peak in the middle teen years, playground injuries peak in the early elementary ages and then drop off slowly, and bicycling injuries peak in the preteen years but are a common cause of injury throughout childhood and adolescence. Bowling injuries peaked at the earliest age (4 years), and injuries linked to camping and personal watercraft peaked at the oldest age (18 years). The 5 most common causes of sport and recreational injuries across development, in order, were basketball, football, bicycling, playgrounds, and soccer. Sex disparities were common in the incidence of pediatric sport and recreational injuries. Both biological and sociocultural factors likely influence the developmental aspects of pediatric sport and recreational injury risk. Biologically, changes in perception, cognition, and motor control might influence injury risk. Socioculturally

  7. Z-burst scenario for the highest energy cosmic rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fodor, Z.

    2002-10-01

    The origin of highest energy cosmic rays is yet unknown. An appealing possibility is the so-called Z-burst scenario, in which a large fraction of these cosmic rays are decay products of Z bosons produced in the scattering of ultrahigh energy neutrinos on cosmological relic neutrinos. The comparison between the observed and predicted spectra constrains the mass of the heaviest neutrino. The required neutrino mass is fairly robust against variations of the presently unknown quantities, such as the amount of relic neutrino clustering, the universal photon radio background and the extragalactic magnetic field. Considering different possibilities for the ordinary cosmic rays the required neutrino masses are determined. In the most plausible case that the ordinary cosmic rays are of extragalactic origin and the universal radio background is strong enough to suppress high energy photons, the required neutrino mass is 0.08 eV ≤ m ν ≤ 0.40 eV. The required ultrahigh energy neutrino flux should be detected in the near future by experiments such as AMANDA, RICE or the Pierre Auger Observatory. (orig.)

  8. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  9. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  10. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  11. Characterisation of baroreflex sensitivity of recreational ultra-endurance athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulds, Heather J A; Cote, Anita T; Phillips, Aaron A; Charlesworth, Sarah A; Bredin, Shannon S D; Burr, Jamie F; Drury, Chipman Taylor; Ngai, Shirley; Fougere, Renee J; Ivey, Adam C; Warburton, Darren E R

    2014-01-01

    Altered autonomic function has been identified following ultra-endurance event participation among elite world-class athletes. Despite dramatic increases in recreational athlete participation in these ultra-endurance events, the physiological effects on these athletes are less known. This investigation sought to characterise changes in surrogate measures of autonomic function: heart rate variability (HRV), blood pressure variability (BPV) and baroreceptor sensitivity (BRS) following ultra-endurance race participation. Further, we sought to compare baseline measures among ultra-endurance athletes and recreationally active controls not participating in the ultra-endurance race. Recreational ultra-endurance athletes (n = 25, 44.6 ± 8.2 years, 8 females) and recreationally active age, sex and body mass index matched controls (n = 25) were evaluated. Measurements of HRV, BPV and BRS were collected pre- and post-race for recreational ultra-endurance athletes and at baseline, for recreationally active controls. Post-race, ultra-endurance athletes demonstrated significantly greater sympathetic modulation [low frequency (LF) power HRV: 50.3 ± 21.6 normalised units (n.u.) to 65.9 ± 20.4 n.u., p = 0.01] and significantly lower parasympathetic modulation [high frequency (HF) power HRV: 45.0 ± 22.4 n.u. to 23.9 ± 13.1 n.u., p HRV and BPV measures. Recreational ultra-endurance athletes experienced increased sympathetic tone and declines in BRS post-race, similar to previously reported elite world-class ultra-endurance athletes, though still within normal population ranges.

  12. Flow forecasting scenarios to support multiple-objective management of publicly-owned dams in Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R [Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ste-Foy, PQ (Canada). Centre de l' Energie

    2004-07-01

    This presentation described the application of flow forecasting at the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ), an agency that provides expertise in hydrology and hydraulics. CEHQ ensures land management of public water and enforces the Dam Safety Act. It also provides support to municipalities in defining flood-risk areas and effective control of floods. Other responsibilities include the operation of hydrometric stations and 36 publicly-owned dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity. The role of stream flow forecasting within the decision making process was discussed and operational examples were presented to demonstrate the possibilities of forecast scenarios such as the one in place at the Kenogami River Basin in Quebec. Future challenges lie in improving the way information is communicated and evaluating the probability of occurrences associated with short-term precipitation scenarios to current weather conditions. tabs., figs.

  13. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  14. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  15. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  16. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  17. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  18. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  19. Pathways to plausibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahlberg, Ayo

    2008-01-01

    Herbal medicine has long been contrasted to modern medicine in terms of a holistic approach to healing, vitalistic theories of health and illness and an emphasis on the body’s innate self-healing capacities. At the same time, since the early 20th century, the cultivation, preparation and mass...... production of herbal medicines have become increasingly industrialised, scientificised and commercialised. What is more, phytochemical efforts to identify and isolate particular ‘active ingredients’ from whole-plant extracts have intensified, often in response to increasing regulatory scrutiny of the safety...... and quality of herbal medicinal products. In this paper, I examine whether describing these developments in terms of a biomedical ‘colonisation’ of herbal medicine, as has been common, allows us to sufficiently account for the mundane collaborative efforts of herbalists, botanists, phytochemists...

  20. Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2004-01-01

    We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

  1. Characteristics of Marine Recreational Fishing in the anakkale Strait (Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. UNAL

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic and harvest impacts of Marine Recreational Fishing (MRF in Çanakkale Strait were analysed along with fishing policy, sociology and habits of fishers. Data sources included field survey data carried out along the entire length of the Çanakkale strait and policy information gathered from published sources. MRF policy is commendable, even in the fishing tourism sector, and is better developed than that in many other European countries. In Çanakkale, 9.9% of the population is recreational fishers. Recreational fishers are typically men (90%, primarily those between the ages of 25 and 49 yrs. The occupation of the recreational fishers ranged from self-employed (28%, students (28%, retired persons (22% and public employees (15%, to currently-unemployed persons (7%. An analysis of diel behaviour showed that most recreational fishers preferred fishing during the day (56.1%, while the evening was the next most preferred time for fishing (18%, followed by the night-time (9.8%, while a substantial number of recreational fishers (16.1% reported that they fished at any time of day. The most popular type of fishing was shore-based (68%, followed by boat-based (21%, and underwater fishing (11%. The mean daily fishing times were 6.07 h d-1, 6.18 h d-1 4.75 d-1 for boat-based, underwater and shore-based fishing, respectively. Summer and autumn were the preferred seasons for shore-based and underwater fishing, while autumn and winter were preferred for boat-based fishing. The highest Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE was observed for boat-based fishing (2.77 kg h-1, followed by underwater (0.97 kg h-1 and shore-based fishing (0.81 kg h-1. The catch composition included 51 species, though the catch composition of each fishing type was mostly comprised of only 3 or 4 species. The impact of the MRF harvest was high (30% of commercial fishing, particularly for bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix and picarel (Spicara smaris species. The economic impact of MRF was

  2. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  3. Enhancing Quality of Life: Restorative Experience in Recreational Forests in Selangor, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norhuzailin Hussain

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Two recreational forests were selected as case studies: The Ampang and Kanching Recreational Forests. The recreational forests are facing pressure by surrounding developments such as highway and housing. Urban development has implications for the benefits offered by recreational forests, endangered biodiversity, water quality and wildlife to result a place that is no longer enjoyable to visit. It is important to conserve the recreational forests that can contribute to the urbanites quality of life. Based on the results from the site observations, self-administered questionnaires and in-depth interviews, this paper describes recreational forest users’ experience in the recreational forests and what makes they perceived restored while being in the forest. This study helps the recreational forest management and related organizations in conserving, planning and managing recreational forests in providing a positive experience for users that can enhance Malaysian quality of life.

  4. A comprehensive framework for tourism and recreation drought vulnerability reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Deborah S K; Wilhelmi, Olga V; Finnessey, Taryn N; Deheza, Veva

    2013-01-01

    The effects of drought are vast, but loss statistics often do not reflect the impacts on the tourism and recreation sector, which for many places is one of the most critical economic drivers. This is concerning because drought events are common across the globe, with varying frequency, duration, and intensity, and are therefore unavoidable. Over the years, drought conditions have been at record levels in many regions, causing deep societal and economic impacts. However, little research has been conducted on connections between tourism/recreation and drought, revealing a distinct disconnect between the tourism/recreation sector and drought management. To bridge this gap in the current understanding of, and approaches to, managing drought in the tourism/recreation sector, we present an interdisciplinary conceptual framework that integrates tourism/recreation into the drought management process to ensure sustainable economic development and community vitality. The model presented here promotes understanding of critical interactions through a bottom-up stakeholder engagement process balanced with formal top-down management approaches. (letter)

  5. Sensing Athletes: Sensory Dimensions of Recreational Endurance Sports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Groth

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sport has become increasingly popular with recreational athletes over the last couple of decades. This has only gained minimal attention so far from scholars interested in the relations between recreational sports and everyday culture. With this paper, we seek to contribute to this field by scrutinising the sensory dimensions of recreational sport. Rather than probing into or highlighting isolated senses, we look at sensory dimensions understood as a combination of different, non-separable sensory experiences featured in recreational endurance sports. We are interested in how senses play a role for recreational endurance athletes in running, triathlon and cycling both in training and competition. We start by examining how cultural and social dimensions are inextricably linked to doing sports. Secondly, we show how different configurations of the senses and their communicative mediation are contingent on sport disciplines, specific settings, technology, development and change as sensory careers over time. Thirdly, we discuss the kinaesthetic dimensions of doing sports in relation to the senses and the role of atmospheres. We conclude by arguing that highlighting specific senses by athletes is a cultural practice that calls for a holistic analysis of senses in sport, and outline some methodological implications for research on the senses.

  6. Publically Funded Recreation Facilities: Obesogenic Environments for Children and Families?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patti-Jean Naylor

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing healthy food options in public venues, including recreational facilities, is a health priority. The purpose of this study was to describe the public recreation food environment in British Columbia, Canada using a sequential explanatory mixed methods design. Facility audits assessed policy, programs, vending, concessions, fundraising, staff meetings and events. Focus groups addressed context and issues related to action. Eighty-eighty percent of facilities had no policy governing food sold or provided for children/youth programs. Sixty-eight percent of vending snacks were chocolate bars and chips while 57% of beverages were sugar sweetened. User group fundraisers held at the recreation facilities also sold ‘unhealthy’ foods. Forty-two percent of recreation facilities reported providing user-pay programs that educated the public about healthy eating. Contracts, economics, lack of resources and knowledge and motivation of staff and patrons were barriers to change. Recreation food environments were obesogenic but stakeholders were interested in change. Technical support, resources and education are needed.

  7. The Potential Impacts of a Scenario of C02-Induced Climatic Change on Ontafio, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S. J.; Allsopp, T. R.

    1988-07-01

    In 1984, Environment Canada, Ontario Region, with financial and expert support from the Canadian Climate Program, initiated an interdisciplinary pilot study to investigate the potential impact, on Ontario, of a climate scenario which might be anticipated under doubling of atmospheric C02 conditions.There were many uncertainties involved in the climate scenario development and the impacts modeling. Time and resource constraints restricted this study to one climate scenario and to the selection of several available models that could be adapted to these impact studies. The pilot study emphasized the approach and process required to investigate potential regional impacts in an interdisciplinary manner, rather than to produce a forecast of the future.The climate scenario chosen was adapted from experimental model results produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), coupled with current climate normals. Gridded monthly mean temperatures and precipitation were then used to develop projected biophysical effects. For example, existing physical and/or statistical models were adapted to determine impacts on the Great Lakes net basin supplies, levels and outflows, streamflow subbasin, snowfall and length of snow season.The second phase of the study addressed the impacts of the climate system scenario on natural resources and resource dependent activities. For example, the impacts of projected decreased lake levels and outflows on commercial navigation and hydroelectric generation were assessed. The impacts of the climate scenario on municipal water use, residential beating and cooling energy requirements opportunities and constraints for food production and tourism and recreation were determined quantitatively where models and methodologies were available, otherwise, qualitatively.First order interdependencies of the biophysical effects of the climate scenario and resource dependent activities were evaluated qualitatively in a workshop format culminating in a

  8. Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

    2014-12-01

    The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

  9. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  10. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  11. MRI Proton Density Fat Fraction Is Robust Across the Biologically Plausible Range of Triglyceride Spectra in Adults With Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Cheng William; Mamidipalli, Adrija; Hooker, Jonathan C.; Hamilton, Gavin; Wolfson, Tanya; Chen, Dennis H.; Dehkordy, Soudabeh Fazeli; Middleton, Michael S.; Reeder, Scott B.; Loomba, Rohit; Sirlin, Claude B.

    2017-01-01

    Background Proton density fat fraction (PDFF) estimation requires spectral modeling of the hepatic triglyceride (TG) signal. Deviations in the TG spectrum may occur, leading to bias in PDFF quantification. Purpose To investigate the effects of varying six-peak TG spectral models on PDFF estimation bias. Study Type Retrospective secondary analysis of prospectively acquired clinical research data. Population Forty-four adults with biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Field Strength/Sequence Confounder-corrected chemical-shift-encoded 3T MRI (using a 2D multiecho gradient-recalled echo technique with magnitude reconstruction) and MR spectroscopy. Assessment In each patient, 61 pairs of colocalized MRI-PDFF and MRS-PDFF values were estimated: one pair used the standard six-peak spectral model, the other 60 were six-peak variants calculated by adjusting spectral model parameters over their biologically plausible ranges. MRI-PDFF values calculated using each variant model and the standard model were compared, and the agreement between MRI-PDFF and MRS-PDFF was assessed. Statistical Tests MRS-PDFF and MRI-PDFF were summarized descriptively. Bland–Altman (BA) analyses were performed between PDFF values calculated using each variant model and the standard model. Linear regressions were performed between BA biases and mean PDFF values for each variant model, and between MRI-PDFF and MRS-PDFF. Results Using the standard model, mean MRS-PDFF of the study population was 17.9±8.0% (range: 4.1–34.3%). The difference between the highest and lowest mean variant MRI-PDFF values was 1.5%. Relative to the standard model, the model with the greatest absolute BA bias overestimated PDFF by 1.2%. Bias increased with increasing PDFF (P hepatic fat content, PDFF estimation is robust across the biologically plausible range of TG spectra. Although absolute estimation bias increased with higher PDFF, its magnitude was small and unlikely to be clinically meaningful. Level of

  12. Gender differences in recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Liang-Ting; Lo, Feng-En; Yang, Chih-Chien; Keller, Joseph Jordan; Lyu, Shu-Yu

    2015-01-15

    This study examines the gender differences in the enjoyment of recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults. Data were obtained using the 2007 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The questionnaire included a topical module of the International Social Survey Program regarding leisure time and sports. Results showed that male subjects were more likely to participate in recreational sports to improve their appearance and on account of their personal interest. In addition to these factors, female subjects also experienced greater motivation to participate when Taiwanese athletes performed well in international sporting competitions. This study confirmed that the factors influencing enjoyment of recreational sports participation differ among men and women. These results can be used to better inform public health professionals and other regulatory organizations formulating physical activity intervention strategies.

  13. Quality of life threats in recreational and competitive sport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støckel, Jan Toftegaard

    Quality of life threats in recreational and competitive sport Author: ass. Professor Jan Toftegaard Støckel Key words: sport, stress, depression, illness, Previous research has shown that personal issues (nutrition, injury, goals and expectations), coach-athlete issues (coach, coaching style......, selection) and environmental issues (team atmosphere, support structures) are key determinants for stress, depression and illness in elite sports. In a large scale survey among 4,000 Danish athletes from recreational thru to elite sport a regression analysis show an increase in risk of self-reported stress......, depression or illness (SDI) by odds ratio 6,5 in elite sport compared to recreational sport. One in eight athletes reported SDI and highest associations are related to coach behavior. The key question for this abstract is to examine whether men and women are equally vulnerable to SDI at various sport levels...

  14. Is recreational hunting important for landscape multi-functionality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Jens Friis; Jensen, Frank Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    Recreational hunting may be important to the shaping of the agricultural landscape. Land owners who hunt or lease out hunting rights have an incentive to promote landscapes that contain wildlife biotopes, which may serve wider societal values, such as landscape aesthetics, biodiversity, and prese......Recreational hunting may be important to the shaping of the agricultural landscape. Land owners who hunt or lease out hunting rights have an incentive to promote landscapes that contain wildlife biotopes, which may serve wider societal values, such as landscape aesthetics, biodiversity......, and preservation of valued and/or threatened animal and plant species. Recreational hunting may thus contribute to preserve and enhance landscape multifunctionality. Yet, little is known about the importance of hunting interests in motivating such landscape management. In this article, we seek to shed light...

  15. Gender Differences in Recreational Sports Participation among Taiwanese Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Liang-Ting; Lo, Feng-En; Yang, Chih-Chien; Keller, Joseph Jordan; Lyu, Shu-Yu

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the gender differences in the enjoyment of recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults. Data were obtained using the 2007 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The questionnaire included a topical module of the International Social Survey Program regarding leisure time and sports. Results showed that male subjects were more likely to participate in recreational sports to improve their appearance and on account of their personal interest. In addition to these factors, female subjects also experienced greater motivation to participate when Taiwanese athletes performed well in international sporting competitions. This study confirmed that the factors influencing enjoyment of recreational sports participation differ among men and women. These results can be used to better inform public health professionals and other regulatory organizations formulating physical activity intervention strategies. PMID:25599374

  16. Gender Differences in Recreational Sports Participation among Taiwanese Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Ting Tsai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the gender differences in the enjoyment of recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults. Data were obtained using the 2007 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The questionnaire included a topical module of the International Social Survey Program regarding leisure time and sports. Results showed that male subjects were more likely to participate in recreational sports to improve their appearance and on account of their personal interest. In addition to these factors, female subjects also experienced greater motivation to participate when Taiwanese athletes performed well in international sporting competitions. This study confirmed that the factors influencing enjoyment of recreational sports participation differ among men and women. These results can be used to better inform public health professionals and other regulatory organizations formulating physical activity intervention strategies.

  17. CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND DRIVERS OF CHOICE REGARDING LOCAL RECREATION SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria SAVA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the rapidly growing industry of leisure has displayed some signs of overcrowding on account of the diminished capacities of turning employed resources into profit and the lowered personnel productivity in Romania. Economic agents striving to succeed in this rapidly evolving economic sector should reconsider their position and plan a strategy to grow or reinforce their business. The present paper provides a starting point in outlying the local recreation market specificity by investigating consumer preferences and drivers of choice. Results show that although there is an active demand for commercial recreational activities, its quantum is rather low. Moreover, the study shows that service-related factors (such as quality, personnel qualification, price and novelty appear to have the highest importance for consumers, that positive word of mouth is a rather strong influencer, while advertising and location-related factors rank lowest on the list of priorities when choosing a recreation provider.

  18. The psychological benefits of recreational running: a field study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabo, Attila; Abrahám, Júlia

    2013-01-01

    Running yields positive changes in affect, but the external validity of controlled studies has received little attention in the literature. In this inquiry, 50 recreational runners completed the Exercise-Induced Feeling Inventory (Gauvin & Rejeskí, 1993) before and after a bout of self-planned running on an urban running path. Positive changes were seen in all four measures of affect (p run, weekly running time, weekly running distance, and running experience) to the observed changes in affect. The results have revealed that exercise characteristics accounted for only 14-30% of the variance in the recreational runners' affect, in both directions. It is concluded that psychological benefits of recreational running may be linked to placebo (conditioning and/or expectancy) effects.

  19. Broad-spectrum physical fitness benefits of recreational football

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milanović, Zoran; Pantelić, Saša; Čović, Nedim

    2018-01-01

    , narrative reviews have demonstrated beneficial effects of recreational football on physical fitness and health status. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the magnitude of effects of recreational football on blood pressure, body composition, lipid profile...... and muscular fitness with reference to age, gender and health status. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, PubMed, SPORTDiscus, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Google Scholar were searched prior to 1 February 2017. In addition...... to a recreational football group or any other type of exercises or passive control group were included. Training programmes had to last at least 2 weeks to meet the inclusion criteria. The primary outcome measures were blood pressure, resting heart rate, body composition, muscular fitness, and blood lipids...

  20. THE POSITION OF SPORTS-RECREATIONAL TOURISM IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjen Jovović

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Basic for realization of tourist movements lays in meeting cultural and recreati- onal needs of potential customers. If we know that largest number of tourists represents part of recreational ones, than is not hard to realize how large potential lays in that number of potential guests. On this fact should be built strategy of movement of tourist offer of Montenegro for it extreme potentials on which can be founded concrete project. In this work are given basic assumptions for development of sport recreational shapes of tourism with stress to natural potentials that directly determine shape of sport recreational activities that represent basis of tourist offer. Offer should be created in that way that it is adapted to wide segment of recreational guests and not professional sportsmen, although they also should not be underestimated but one should know that in order to create conditions for arrival of sports professionals offer has to be completely different and more specialized that requires creating of conditions of existence of highly developed sports infrastruc- ture, while for amateurs a lot can be done in “system of improvising”, satisfying basic criteria – recreation in conditions of untouched and well preserved nature with securing maximal level of security and protection of guests, in order to prevent possible unwilling consequences that can lead to injury of guests and for development and realization of such project one need a much less funds than is building of facilities that should meet standards of professional sportsmen. The aim is to create good offer at good infrastructure, logistics and with good equipment with securing maximal security, adaptation to various wishes of guests, ta- king in consideration their structure is conditioned by age, health condition, physical fitness as personal wishes toward sports and recreational activities.