WorldWideScience

Sample records for plausible scenario recreational

  1. Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkman, B; Fridell, K; Tavakol Olofsson, P

    2017-11-01

    Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled "Access to career advancement" and "A sufficient number of radiographers", were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. It is suggested that "The dying profession" scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of "happy radiographers" who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by "the assembly line". Copyright © 2017 The College of Radiographers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  3. Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lord, Steven; Helfgott, Ariella; Vervoort, Joost M.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future cond

  4. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  5. How plausible are the proposed formation scenarios of CEMP-r/s stars?

    CERN Document Server

    Abate, Carlo; Liu, Zheng-Wei

    2016-01-01

    CEMP-$r/s$ stars are metal-poor stars with enhanced abundances of carbon and heavy elements associated with the slow ($s$-) and rapid ($r$-) neutron-capture process. It is believed that carbon and $s$-elements were accreted from the wind of an AGB primary star, a scenario that is generally accepted to explain the formation of CEMP stars that are only enhanced in $s$-elements (CEMP-$s$ stars). The origin of $r$-element-enrichment in CEMP-$r/s$ stars is debated and many formation scenarios have been put forward. We aim to determine the likelihood of the scenarios proposed to explain the formation of CEMP-$r/s$ stars. We calculate the frequency of CEMP-$r/s$ stars among CEMP-$s$ stars for a variety of scenarios, and we compare it with that determined from an observed sample of CEMP-$r/s$ stars collected from the literature. The theoretical frequency of CEMP-$r/s$ stars predicted in most scenarios underestimates the observed ratio by at least a factor of 5. If the enrichments in $s$- and $r$-elements are independ...

  6. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiebe, Keith; Lotze-Campen, H.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences

  7. Exploring plausible formation scenarios for the planet candidate orbiting Proxima Centauri

    CERN Document Server

    Coleman, Gavin A L; Paardekooper, Sijme-Jan; Dreizler, Stefan; Giesers, Benjamin; Anglada-Escude, Guillem

    2016-01-01

    We present a study of 4 different formation scenarios that may explain the origin of the recently announced planet `Proxima b' orbiting the star Proxima Centauri. The aim is to examine how the formation scenarios differ in their predictions for the multiplicity of the Proxima planetary system, the water/volatile content of Proxima b and its eccentricity, so that these can be tested by future observations. A scenario of in situ formation via giant impacts from a locally enhanced disc of planetary embryos and planetesimals, predicts that Proxima b will be a member of a multiplanet system with a measurably finite value of orbital eccentricity. Assuming that the local solid enhancement needed to form a Proxima b analogue with a minimum mass of 1.3 Earth masses arises because of the inwards drift of solids in the form of small planetesimals/boulders, this scenario also likely results in Proxima b analogues that are moderately endowed with water/volatiles, arising from the dynamical diffusion of icy planetesimals f...

  8. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiebe, Keith; Lotze-Campen, H.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences thro

  9. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  11. A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

    2016-12-01

    Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and

  12. Climate change, resource use and food security in midcentury under a range of plausible scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, K.

    2016-12-01

    Achieving and maintaining food security at local, national and global scales is challenged by changes in population, income and climate, among other socioeconomic and biophysical drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a systematic and multidisciplinary approach. The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the 14 other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve tools and conduct ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments and policies under alternative global futures to inform decision making in the CGIAR and its partners. Alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios are explored using an integrated system of climate, water, crop and economic models. This presentation will share findings from recent projections of food production and prices to 2050 at global and regional scales, together with their potential implications for land and water use, food security, nutrition and health.

  13. Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Improving Resilience for California from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional

  15. From provocative narrative scenarios to quantitative biophysical model results: Simulating plausible futures to 2070 in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, E.; Chen, X.; Motew, M.; Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Carpenter, S. R.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Scenario analysis is a powerful tool for envisioning future social-ecological change and its consequences on human well-being. Scenarios that integrate qualitative storylines and quantitative biophysical models can create a vivid picture of these potential futures but the integration process is not straightforward. We present - using the Yahara Watershed in southern Wisconsin (USA) as a case study - a method for developing quantitative inputs (climate, land use/cover, and land management) to drive a biophysical modeling suite based on four provocative and contrasting narrative scenarios that describe plausible futures of the watershed to 2070. The modeling suite consists of an agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF), hydrologic routing model (THMB), and empirical lake water quality model and estimates several biophysical indicators to evaluate the watershed system under each scenario. These indicators include water supply, lake flooding, agricultural production, and lake water quality. Climate (daily precipitation and air temperature) for each scenario was determined using statistics from 210 different downscaled future climate projections for two 20-year time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) and modified using a stochastic weather generator to allow flexibility for matching specific climate events within the scenario narratives. Land use/cover for each scenario was determined first by quantifying changes in areal extent every decade for 15 categories at the watershed scale to be consistent with the storyline events and theme. Next, these changes were spatially distributed using a rule-based framework based on land suitability metrics that determine transition probabilities. Finally, agricultural inputs including manure and fertilizer application rates were determined for each scenario based on the prevalence of livestock, water quality regulations, and technological innovations. Each scenario is compared using model inputs (maps and time-series of land use/cover and

  16. Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps

  17. A plausible worst-case scenario of increasing multidrug resistance as a tool for assessing societal risks and capabilities in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffey, Roger; Lindberg, Anna; Molin, Lena; Wikman-Svahn, Per

    2015-01-01

    A "plausible worst-case scenario" of a gradually increasing level of multidrug-resistant bacteria (carbapenem-resistant E. coli) in the human population was developed and used to study how Swedish authorities would manage this situation and to identify preventive measures that could be taken. Key findings include: (1) a scenario in which 5% of the population in southern Sweden become carriers of carbapenem-resistant E. coli is possible or even likely in 10 to 15 years; (2) it is not clear when and how the increase of E. coli resistant to carbapenems as in the scenario would be detected in the general human population; (3) identified negative consequences of the scenario on society were primarily due to increased demands on the healthcare system and potential consequences for food-producing animals, food safety, and environmental health; and (4) a number of preventive and mitigation measures were suggested, including initiating long-term screening programs for public and animal health as well as for food and water production to monitor increasing levels of carbapenem resistance. Strategies and plans to prevent and handle future increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria need to be developed.

  18. Recreating simulation scenarios for interprofessional education: an example of educational interprofessional practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullmann, Dorothy F; Shilling, Ashley M; Goeke, Lucy H; Wright, Elisabeth B; Littlewood, Keith E

    2013-09-01

    High-fidelity simulation has proliferated in healthcare education. Once a novelty, simulation is now a mainstay of many curricula and even required by some accrediting bodies. Interprofessional behaviors, manifested through interprofessional education and practice are believed to improve patients' lives. The exciting potential of simulation-interprofessional education (SIM-IPE) is now being explored. This report details a SIM-IPE experience from a university medical simulation center and Schools of Nursing and Medicine. Circumstances required an existing scenario to be "retrofitted" for interprofessional education. Key decision points, challenges and practices are highlighted in the hope that they may be of use to other simulation educators.

  19. USGS SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Potential Impacts to the U.S. West Coast from a Plausible M9 Earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J. T.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, E.; Knight, W. R.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K. M.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E. N.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V. V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) project, in collaboration with the California Geological Survey, the California Emergency Management Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies and institutions are developing a Tsunami Scenario to describe in detail the impacts of a tsunami generated by a hypothetical, but realistic, M9 earthquake near the Alaska Peninsula. The overarching objective of SAFRR and its predecessor, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, is to help communities reduce losses from natural disasters. As requested by emergency managers and other community partners, a primary approach has been comprehensive, scientifically credible scenarios that start with a model of a geologic event and extend through estimates of damage, casualties, and societal consequences. The first product was the ShakeOut scenario, addressing a hypothetical earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, that spawned the successful Great California ShakeOut, an annual event and the nation's largest emergency preparedness exercise. That was followed by the ARkStorm scenario, which addresses California winter storms that surpass hurricanes in their destructive potential. Some of the Tsunami Scenario's goals include developing advanced models of currents and inundation for the event; spurring research related to Alaskan earthquake sources; engaging the port and harbor decision makers; understanding the economic impacts to local, regional and national economy in both the short and long term; understanding the ecological, environmental, and societal impacts of coastal inundation; and creating enhanced communication products for decision-making before, during, and after a tsunami event. The state of California, through CGS and Cal EMA, is using the Tsunami Scenario as an opportunity to evaluate policies regarding tsunami impact. The scenario will serve as a long-lasting resource to teach preparedness and

  20. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  1. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  2. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  3. Looking for plausibility

    CERN Document Server

    Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin Wan

    2010-01-01

    In the interpretation of experimental data, one is actually looking for plausible explanations. We look for a measure of plausibility, with which we can compare different possible explanations, and which can be combined when there are different sets of data. This is contrasted to the conventional measure for probabilities as well as to the proposed measure of possibilities. We define what characteristics this measure of plausibility should have. In getting to the conception of this measure, we explore the relation of plausibility to abductive reasoning, and to Bayesian probabilities. We also compare with the Dempster-Schaefer theory of evidence, which also has its own definition for plausibility. Abduction can be associated with biconditionality in inference rules, and this provides a platform to relate to the Collins-Michalski theory of plausibility. Finally, using a formalism for wiring logic onto Hopfield neural networks, we ask if this is relevant in obtaining this measure.

  4. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  5. Recreational Therapists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or a related field such as recreation and leisure studies. Recreational therapy programs include courses in assessment, ... part-time work, the amount and type of travel required, any safety equipment that is used, and ...

  6. The Evolution of NATO with Four Plausible Threat Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-08-01

    of nuclear weapons, the USSR can hope to change the PRC’s map decisively by seizing Sinkiang * (and/or Inner Mongolia) while concurrently using (non...insoluble demographic problems (the Turkic/Slav population trends). War could gain for the Soviet Union the structural protection of a Sinkiang made into

  7. Families of Plausible Solutions to the Puzzle of Boyajian's Star

    CERN Document Server

    Wright, Jason T

    2016-01-01

    Good explanations for the unusual light curve of Boyajian's Star have been hard to find. Recent results by Montet & Simon lend strength and plausibility to the conclusion of Schaefer that in addition to short-term dimmings, the star also experiences large, secular decreases in brightness on decadal timescales. This, combined with a lack of long-wavelength excess in the star's spectral energy distribution, strongly constrains scenarios involving circumstellar material, including hypotheses invoking a spherical cloud of artifacts. We show that the timings of the deepest dimmings appear consistent with being randomly distributed, and that the star's reddening and narrow sodium absorption is consistent with the total, long-term dimming observed. Following Montet & Simon's encouragement to generate alternative hypotheses, we attempt to circumscribe the space of possible explanations with a range of plausibilities, including: a cloud in the outer solar system, structure in the ISM, natural and artificial ma...

  8. International Fisheries Management and Recreational Benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oinonen, Soile; Grønbæk, Lone; Laukkanen, Marita

    2016-01-01

    scenarios. In the first scenario, countries take their participation decision for the IFA based only on the net present value of profits from commercial fisheries. In the second scenario, the net present value of the recreational benefits from angling is also considered. The results show that accounting......This article studies how accounting for the benefits of recreational fisheries affects the formation and stability of an international fisheries agreement (IFA) on the management of Baltic salmon stocks. The interaction between four countries is modelled through a partition function game, under two...

  9. What can we learn from Plausible Values?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsman, Maarten; Maris, Gunter; Bechger, Timo; Glas, Cees

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we show that the marginal distribution of plausible values is a consistent estimator of the true latent variable distribution, and, furthermore, that convergence is monotone in an embedding in which the number of items tends to infinity. We use this result to clarify some of the misconceptions that exist about plausible values, and also show how they can be used in the analyses of educational surveys.

  10. Plausibility functions and exact frequentist inference

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    In the frequentist program, inferential methods with exact control on error rates are a primary focus. Methods based on asymptotic distribution theory may not be suitable in a particular problem, in which case, a numerical method is needed. This paper presents a general, Monte Carlo-driven framework for the construction of frequentist procedures based on plausibility functions. It is proved that the suitably defined plausibility function-based tests and confidence regions have desired frequentist properties. Moreover, in an important special case involving likelihood ratios, conditions are given such that the plausibility function behaves asymptotically like a consistent Bayesian posterior distribution. An extension of the proposed method is also given for the case where nuisance parameters are present. A number of examples are given which illustrate the method and demonstrate its strong performance compared to other popular existing methods.

  11. Bisimulation for Single-Agent Plausibility Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; van Ditmarsch, H.;

    2013-01-01

    Epistemic plausibility models are Kripke models agents use to reason about the knowledge and beliefs of themselves and each other. Restricting ourselves to the single-agent case, we determine when such models are indistinguishable in the logical language containing conditional belief, i.e., we...... define a proper notion of bisimulation, and prove that bisimulation corresponds to logical equivalence on image-finite models. We relate our results to other epistemic notions, such as safe belief and degrees of belief. Our results imply that there are only finitely many non-bisimilar single......-agent epistemic plausibility models on a finite set of propositions. This gives decidability for single-agent epistemic plausibility planning....

  12. Biologically Plausible, Human-scale Knowledge Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Eric; Gingerich, Matthew; Eliasmith, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Several approaches to implementing symbol-like representations in neurally plausible models have been proposed. These approaches include binding through synchrony (Shastri & Ajjanagadde, 1993), "mesh" binding (van der Velde & de Kamps, 2006), and conjunctive binding (Smolensky, 1990). Recent theoretical work has suggested that…

  13. Outdoor recreation participation trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Barbara L. McDonald; R. Jeff Teasley; John C. Bergstrom; Jack Martin; Jim Bason; Vernon R. Leeworthy

    1999-01-01

    As part of the national assessment of outdoor recreation trends, the authors have taken a look at participation patterns and levels of participation across activities and across segments of our society. The primary source of data is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). The NSRE is the latest in the continuing series of National Recreation...

  14. FAQ about Recreational Therapy/Therapeutic Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Rehabilitation Facilities (CARF) Research Grant Opportunities Publications MDS 3.0 Tools International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health - World Health Organization (ICF/WHO) Marketing Links RecreationalTherapynet New Publications & Items Promotional Items Publications ...

  15. Don't Plan for the Unexpected: Planning Based on Plausibility Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; Jensen, Martin Holm

    2015-01-01

    We present a framework for automated planning based on plausibility models, as well as algorithms for computing plans in this framework. Our plausibility models include postconditions, as ontic effects are essential for most planning purposes. The framework presented extends a previously developed...... framework based on dynamic epistemic logic (DEL), without plausibilities/beliefs. In the pure epistemic framework, one can distinguish between strong and weak epistemic plans for achieving some, possibly epistemic, goal. By taking all possible outcomes of actions into account, a strong plan guarantees...... that the agent achieves this goal. Conversely, a weak plan promises only the possibility of leading to the goal. In real-life planning scenarios where the planning agent is faced with a high degree of uncertainty and an almost endless number of possible exogenous events, strong epistemic planning...

  16. Don't Plan for the Unexpected: Planning Based on Plausibility Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; Jensen, Martin Holm

    2015-01-01

    that the agent achieves this goal. Conversely, a weak plan promises only the possibility of leading to the goal. In real-life planning scenarios where the planning agent is faced with a high degree of uncertainty and an almost endless number of possible exogenous events, strong epistemic planning......We present a framework for automated planning based on plausibility models, as well as algorithms for computing plans in this framework. Our plausibility models include postconditions, as ontic effects are essential for most planning purposes. The framework presented extends a previously developed...... framework based on dynamic epistemic logic (DEL), without plausibilities/beliefs. In the pure epistemic framework, one can distinguish between strong and weak epistemic plans for achieving some, possibly epistemic, goal. By taking all possible outcomes of actions into account, a strong plan guarantees...

  17. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    for visiting natural areas were most often social, such as being with family and friends, and health and well-being reasons (exercise and relaxing from stress). However, the ethnic minority adolescents more often stated “to be with family” as an important reason for visiting green spaces compared...... recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation...... to their ethnic Danish counterparts. The adolescents use different areas for outdoor recreation: the adolescents with ethnic Danish background use sports grounds for outdoor recreation, while adolescents with ethnic minority backgrounds use urban green spaces for outdoor recreation. For activities reported...

  18. Anatomically Plausible Surface Alignment and Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus R.; Larsen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    With the increasing clinical use of 3D surface scanners, there is a need for accurate and reliable algorithms that can produce anatomically plausible surfaces. In this paper, a combined method for surface alignment and reconstruction is proposed. It is based on an implicit surface representation...... combined with a Markov Random Field regularisation method. Conceptually, the method maintains an implicit ideal description of the sought surface. This implicit surface is iteratively updated by realigning the input point sets and Markov Random Field regularisation. The regularisation is based on a prior...... energy that has earlier proved to be particularly well suited for human surface scans. The method has been tested on full cranial scans of ten test subjects and on several scans of the outer human ear....

  19. The Role of Plausible Values in Large-Scale Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Margaret

    2005-01-01

    In large-scale assessment programs such as NAEP, TIMSS and PISA, students' achievement data sets provided for secondary analysts contain so-called "plausible values." Plausible values are multiple imputations of the unobservable latent achievement for each student. In this article it has been shown how plausible values are used to: (1) address…

  20. Comprehending Conflicting Science-Related Texts: Graphs as Plausibility Cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isberner, Maj-Britt; Richter, Tobias; Maier, Johanna; Knuth-Herzig, Katja; Horz, Holger; Schnotz, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    When reading conflicting science-related texts, readers may attend to cues which allow them to assess plausibility. One such plausibility cue is the use of graphs in the texts, which are regarded as typical of "hard science." The goal of our study was to investigate the effects of the presence of graphs on the perceived plausibility and…

  1. Invariant visual object recognition: biologically plausible approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Leigh; Rolls, Edmund T

    2015-10-01

    Key properties of inferior temporal cortex neurons are described, and then, the biological plausibility of two leading approaches to invariant visual object recognition in the ventral visual system is assessed to investigate whether they account for these properties. Experiment 1 shows that VisNet performs object classification with random exemplars comparably to HMAX, except that the final layer C neurons of HMAX have a very non-sparse representation (unlike that in the brain) that provides little information in the single-neuron responses about the object class. Experiment 2 shows that VisNet forms invariant representations when trained with different views of each object, whereas HMAX performs poorly when assessed with a biologically plausible pattern association network, as HMAX has no mechanism to learn view invariance. Experiment 3 shows that VisNet neurons do not respond to scrambled images of faces, and thus encode shape information. HMAX neurons responded with similarly high rates to the unscrambled and scrambled faces, indicating that low-level features including texture may be relevant to HMAX performance. Experiment 4 shows that VisNet can learn to recognize objects even when the view provided by the object changes catastrophically as it transforms, whereas HMAX has no learning mechanism in its S-C hierarchy that provides for view-invariant learning. This highlights some requirements for the neurobiological mechanisms of high-level vision, and how some different approaches perform, in order to help understand the fundamental underlying principles of invariant visual object recognition in the ventral visual stream.

  2. Sampling and estimating recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1999-01-01

    Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

  3. Sheridan County Recreation Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Elaine

    A pilot project investigating the feasibility of year-round recreational programs in rural counties of populations of less than 10,000 is described in this report. (Sheridan County, Kansas, was chosen as the project site.) Part I, the introductory section, briefly defines recreation and its relation to human needs. Part II provides a geographic…

  4. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    The thesis has three aims: The first aim is to review the existing knowledge about ethnic minorities’ outdoor recreation in Europe. The second aim is to investigate similarities and differences in outdoor recreation patterns between adolescents with ethnic Danish and ethnic minority background....... An emerging field of research on ethnicity and outdoor recreation was identified, compared to the research in North America. However, the European research on ethnicity and outdoor recreation is growing. The European research has shown differences in outdoor recreation pattern (e.g. the motives for outdoor...... for visiting natural areas were most often social, such as being with family and friends, and health and well-being reasons (exercise and relaxing from stress). However, the ethnic minority adolescents more often stated “to be with family” as an important reason for visiting green spaces compared...

  5. Plausibility and evidence: the case of homeopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, Lex; Mathie, Robert T; Fisher, Peter; Goossens, Maria; van Wassenhoven, Michel

    2013-08-01

    Homeopathy is controversial and hotly debated. The conclusions of systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials of homeopathy vary from 'comparable to conventional medicine' to 'no evidence of effects beyond placebo'. It is claimed that homeopathy conflicts with scientific laws and that homoeopaths reject the naturalistic outlook, but no evidence has been cited. We are homeopathic physicians and researchers who do not reject the scientific outlook; we believe that examination of the prior beliefs underlying this enduring stand-off can advance the debate. We show that interpretations of the same set of evidence--for homeopathy and for conventional medicine--can diverge. Prior disbelief in homeopathy is rooted in the perceived implausibility of any conceivable mechanism of action. Using the 'crossword analogy', we demonstrate that plausibility bias impedes assessment of the clinical evidence. Sweeping statements about the scientific impossibility of homeopathy are themselves unscientific: scientific statements must be precise and testable. There is growing evidence that homeopathic preparations can exert biological effects; due consideration of such research would reduce the influence of prior beliefs on the assessment of systematic review evidence.

  6. Analytic Models of Plausible Gravitational Lens Potentials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baltz, Edward A.; Marshall, Phil; Oguri, Masamune

    2007-05-04

    Gravitational lenses on galaxy scales are plausibly modeled as having ellipsoidal symmetry and a universal dark matter density profile, with a Sersic profile to describe the distribution of baryonic matter. Predicting all lensing effects requires knowledge of the total lens potential: in this work we give analytic forms for that of the above hybrid model. Emphasizing that complex lens potentials can be constructed from simpler components in linear combination, we provide a recipe for attaining elliptical symmetry in either projected mass or lens potential.We also provide analytic formulae for the lens potentials of Sersic profiles for integer and half-integer index. We then present formulae describing the gravitational lensing effects due to smoothly-truncated universal density profiles in cold dark matter model. For our isolated haloes the density profile falls off as radius to the minus fifth or seventh power beyond the tidal radius, functional forms that allow all orders of lens potential derivatives to be calculated analytically, while ensuring a non-divergent total mass. We show how the observables predicted by this profile differ from that of the original infinite-mass NFW profile. Expressions for the gravitational flexion are highlighted. We show how decreasing the tidal radius allows stripped haloes to be modeled, providing a framework for a fuller investigation of dark matter substructure in galaxies and clusters. Finally we remark on the need for finite mass halo profiles when doing cosmological ray-tracing simulations, and the need for readily-calculable higher order derivatives of the lens potential when studying catastrophes in strong lenses.

  7. Encoding the target or the plausible preview word? The nature of the plausibility preview benefit in reading Chinese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jinmian; Li, Nan; Wang, Suiping; Slattery, Timothy J; Rayner, Keith

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that a plausible preview word can facilitate the processing of a target word as compared to an implausible preview word (a plausibility preview benefit effect) when reading Chinese (Yang, Wang, Tong, & Rayner, 2012; Yang, 2013). Regarding the nature of this effect, it is possible that readers processed the meaning of the plausible preview word and did not actually encode the target word (given that the parafoveal preview word lies close to the fovea). The current experiment examined this possibility with three conditions wherein readers received a preview of a target word that was either (1) identical to the target word (identical preview), (2) a plausible continuation of the pre-target text, but the post-target text in the sentence was incompatible with it (initially plausible preview), or (3) not a plausible continuation of the pre-target text, nor compatible with the post-target text (implausible preview). Gaze durations on target words were longer in the initially plausible condition than the identical condition. Overall, the results showed a typical preview benefit, but also implied that readers did not encode the initially plausible preview. Also, a plausibility preview benefit was replicated: gaze durations were longer with implausible previews than the initially plausible ones. Furthermore, late eye movement measures did not reveal differences between the initially plausible and the implausible preview conditions, which argues against the possibility of misreading the plausible preview word as the target word. In sum, these results suggest that a plausible preview word provides benefit in processing the target word as compared to an implausible preview word, and this benefit is only present in early but not late eye movement measures.

  8. Recreating Daily life in Pompeii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Magnenat-Thalmann

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available We propose an integrated Mixed Reality methodology for recreating ancient daily life that features realistic simulations of animated virtual human actors (clothes, body, skin, face who augment real environments and re-enact staged storytelling dramas. We aim to go further from traditional concepts of static cultural artifacts or rigid geometrical and 2D textual augmentations and allow for 3D, interactive, augmented historical character-based event representations in a mobile and wearable setup. This is the main contribution of the described work as well as the proposed extensions to AR Enabling technologies: a VR/AR character simulation kernel framework with real-time, clothed virtual humans that are dynamically superimposed on live camera input, animated and acting based on a predefined, historically correct scenario. We demonstrate such a real-time case study on the actual site of ancient Pompeii.

  9. Outdoor Recreation Sites Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — The RECSITES data layer contains a wide range of recreational sites in Vermont. This point data layer includes parks, ski areas, boat access points, and many other...

  10. Recreational Angler Attitudes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA Fisheries implemented a national survey of saltwater recreational anglers beginning in February 2013. The survey was implemented in six regions including the...

  11. Elbrus – chronology, recreation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergii Bershov

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to conduct research of the historical and geographical factors of becoming and development of the Elbrus region as a center of tourism and mountaineering, to consider the use of mountain and natural complexes for active rest, to give a recreational assessment of the use of mountain natural complexes. Material & Methods: analysis of literature sources, analysis of documents, organizational analysis. Results: the historical and geographical analysis of the mountain-natural territory of the Elbrus region is carried out, the recreational assessment of the use of mountain natural complexes for active recreation is displed. Conclusions: analysis of the spatial assessment of the recreational and tourism-mountaineering potential of mountain natural territorial systems, allows choosing the safest and most attractive routes and classifying them according to complexity and safety.

  12. Recreational Boating Statistics 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  13. American Therapeutic Recreation Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Rehabilitation Facilities (CARF) Research Grant Opportunities Publications MDS 3.0 Tools International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health - World Health Organization (ICF/WHO) Marketing Links RecreationalTherapynet New Publications & Items Promotional Items Publications ...

  14. Recreational Boating Statistics 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  15. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  16. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  17. Plausibility Judgments in Conceptual Change and Epistemic Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Nussbaum, E. Michael; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2016-01-01

    Plausibility judgments rarely have been addressed empirically in conceptual change research. Recent research, however, suggests that these judgments may be pivotal to conceptual change about certain topics where a gap exists between what scientists and laypersons find plausible. Based on a philosophical and empirical foundation, this article…

  18. Source Effects and Plausibility Judgments When Reading about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Seyranian, Viviane; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2014-01-01

    Gaps between what scientists and laypeople find plausible may act as a barrier to learning complex and/or controversial socioscientific concepts. For example, individuals may consider scientific explanations that human activities are causing current climate change as implausible. This plausibility judgment may be due-in part-to individuals'…

  19. Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenario on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the new decade ushers in, there will be new challenges. The world’s population is increasing and the land use patterns are changing. Inevitably with these global changes, there will be various environmental consequences. For example, our water resources, both in terms of qu...

  20. Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-12-19

    Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population(1-3). Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K(-1). Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K(-1)), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K(-1), respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K(-1)). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K(-1)) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K(-1)) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

  1. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  2. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    for visiting natural areas were most often social, such as being with family and friends, and health and well-being reasons (exercise and relaxing from stress). However, the ethnic minority adolescents more often stated “to be with family” as an important reason for visiting green spaces compared...... to their ethnic Danish counterparts. The adolescents use different areas for outdoor recreation: the adolescents with ethnic Danish background use sports grounds for outdoor recreation, while adolescents with ethnic minority backgrounds use urban green spaces for outdoor recreation. For activities reported...... comparison of to what extend and in what way policy documents and research approaches take into account ethnic minority groups. The findings indicate that there is a correlation in the current national research approaches of the four countries and the societal and political context of the four countries...

  3. Outdoor recreation and ethnicity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentin, Sandra

    recreation, activities, and preferred outdoor recreation areas) between the minority and majority populations and related these differences to the ethnic minorities’ cultural background. The second paper presents the empirical work of this thesis, which is based on a survey of adolescents’ outdoor recreation...... pattern. The survey was conducted in two school districts: in North West Copenhagen and the municipality of Ringkøbing-Skjern (n=449, aged 14-16 years, 365 adolescents with ethnic Danish background, and 84 adolescents with ethnic minority background). The results of the questionnaire have shown both...... carried out during some part of the year, “going for a walk”, “barbequing”, “taking a trip with family” were frequently cited by both groups, but more common among adolescents with ethnic minority background. “Walking the dog” was much more common among adolescents with Danish background, who also more...

  4. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  5. Attitudes towards recreational hunting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamborg, Christian; Jensen, Frank Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    What is the attitude of the general public towards hunting? As a recreational activity, hunting stands apart from other forms of outdoor recreation like birdwatching in that it involves the pursuit and killing of wild animals. Today, it is in a tight spot. It has been criticized from animal ethics......, hunting organized as a group hunt, and single day leases of hunting grounds. Respondents with a “mutualist” wildlife value orientation had the most negative attitude towards hunting (39%), “distanced” respondents were the most indifferent (44%), and “utilitarians” were the most positive (61%). Assessing...

  6. Directory of National Recreation Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exceptional Parent, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Thirty national recreation organizations serving individuals with disabilities are listed, along with addresses and telephone numbers. Sample recreational activities covered include Boy Scouts and Girls Scouts, various wheelchair sports, skiing, golfing, and horticultural therapy. (JDD)

  7. US Forest Service Recreation Opportunities

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Forest Service, Department of Agriculture — A map service on the www depicting the recreation opportunity information that the Forest Service collects through the Recreation Portal and shares with the public...

  8. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  9. Job satisfaction among recreation practitioners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin Parks; Andrew Holdnak

    2002-01-01

    Job satisfaction among recreation professionals can be affected by many working conditions. This study has investigated the impact fourteen variables had on the job satisfaction of recreation practitioners. The sample consisted of 106 responses from members of the Resort and Commercial Recreation Association (RCRA). The results of the regression analysis for job...

  10. Plausible values: how to deal with their limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monseur, Christian; Adams, Raymond

    2009-01-01

    Rasch modeling and plausible values methodology were used to scale and report the results of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Programme for International Student Achievement (PISA). This article will describe the scaling approach adopted in PISA. In particular it will focus on the use of plausible values, a multiple imputation approach that is now commonly used in large-scale assessment. As with all imputation models the plausible values must be generated using models that are consistent with those used in subsequent data analysis. In the case of PISA the plausible value generation assumes a flat linear regression with all students' background variables collected through the international student questionnaire included as regressors. Further, like most linear models, homoscedasticity and normality of the conditional variance are assumed. This article will explore some of the implications of this approach. First, we will discuss the conditions under which the secondary analyses on variables not included in the model for generating the plausible values might be biased. Secondly, as plausible values were not drawn from a multi-level model, the article will explore the adequacy of the PISA procedures for estimating variance components when the data have a hierarchical structure.

  11. Families of Plausible Solutions to the Puzzle of Boyajian’s Star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jason T.; Sigurd̵sson, Steinn

    2016-09-01

    Good explanations for the unusual light curve of Boyajian's Star have been hard to find. Recent results by Montet & Simon lend strength and plausibility to the conclusion of Schaefer that in addition to short-term dimmings, the star also experiences large, secular decreases in brightness on decadal timescales. This, combined with a lack of long-wavelength excess in the star's spectral energy distribution, strongly constrains scenarios involving circumstellar material, including hypotheses invoking a spherical cloud of artifacts. We show that the timings of the deepest dimmings appear consistent with being randomly distributed, and that the star's reddening and narrow sodium absorption is consistent with the total, long-term dimming observed. Following Montet & Simon's encouragement to generate alternative hypotheses, we attempt to circumscribe the space of possible explanations with a range of plausibilities, including: a cloud in the outer solar system, structure in the interstellar medium (ISM), natural and artificial material orbiting Boyajian's Star, an intervening object with a large disk, and variations in Boyajian's Star itself. We find the ISM and intervening disk models more plausible than the other natural models.

  12. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  13. Some Remarks on the Model Theory of Epistemic Plausibility Models

    CERN Document Server

    Demey, Lorenz

    2010-01-01

    Classical logics of knowledge and belief are usually interpreted on Kripke models, for which a mathematically well-developed model theory is available. However, such models are inadequate to capture dynamic phenomena. Therefore, epistemic plausibility models have been introduced. Because these are much richer structures than Kripke models, they do not straightforwardly inherit the model-theoretical results of modal logic. Therefore, while epistemic plausibility structures are well-suited for modeling purposes, an extensive investigation of their model theory has been lacking so far. The aim of the present paper is to fill exactly this gap, by initiating a systematic exploration of the model theory of epistemic plausibility models. Like in 'ordinary' modal logic, the focus will be on the notion of bisimulation. We define various notions of bisimulations (parametrized by a language L) and show that L-bisimilarity implies L-equivalence. We prove a Hennesy-Milner type result, and also two undefinability results. ...

  14. The Plausibility of a String Quartet Performance in Virtual Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergstrom, Ilias; Azevedo, Sergio; Papiotis, Panos; Saldanha, Nuno; Slater, Mel

    2017-04-01

    We describe an experiment that explores the contribution of auditory and other features to the illusion of plausibility in a virtual environment that depicts the performance of a string quartet. 'Plausibility' refers to the component of presence that is the illusion that the perceived events in the virtual environment are really happening. The features studied were: Gaze (the musicians ignored the participant, the musicians sometimes looked towards and followed the participant's movements), Sound Spatialization (Mono, Stereo, Spatial), Auralization (no sound reflections, reflections corresponding to a room larger than the one perceived, reflections that exactly matched the virtual room), and Environment (no sound from outside of the room, birdsong and wind corresponding to the outside scene). We adopted the methodology based on color matching theory, where 20 participants were first able to assess their feeling of plausibility in the environment with each of the four features at their highest setting. Then five times participants started from a low setting on all features and were able to make transitions from one system configuration to another until they matched their original feeling of plausibility. From these transitions a Markov transition matrix was constructed, and also probabilities of a match conditional on feature configuration. The results show that Environment and Gaze were individually the most important factors influencing the level of plausibility. The highest probability transitions were to improve Environment and Gaze, and then Auralization and Spatialization. We present this work as both a contribution to the methodology of assessing presence without questionnaires, and showing how various aspects of a musical performance can influence plausibility.

  15. Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000 to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed's social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010-2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.

  16. Classification using sparse representations: a biologically plausible approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spratling, M W

    2014-02-01

    Representing signals as linear combinations of basis vectors sparsely selected from an overcomplete dictionary has proven to be advantageous for many applications in pattern recognition, machine learning, signal processing, and computer vision. While this approach was originally inspired by insights into cortical information processing, biologically plausible approaches have been limited to exploring the functionality of early sensory processing in the brain, while more practical applications have employed non-biologically plausible sparse coding algorithms. Here, a biologically plausible algorithm is proposed that can be applied to practical problems. This algorithm is evaluated using standard benchmark tasks in the domain of pattern classification, and its performance is compared to a wide range of alternative algorithms that are widely used in signal and image processing. The results show that for the classification tasks performed here, the proposed method is competitive with the best of the alternative algorithms that have been evaluated. This demonstrates that classification using sparse representations can be performed in a neurally plausible manner, and hence, that this mechanism of classification might be exploited by the brain.

  17. Study on Recreation Economy and Development of Recreation Space

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    <正>Nowadays in the world, recreation is a new concept and a new phenomenon that emerges in political, economic, and social development and people’s daily life as well. Various production and service activities relating to recreation are increasingly important for

  18. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  19. Semantics-based plausible reasoning to extend the knowledge coverage of medical knowledge bases for improved clinical decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadhassanzadeh, Hossein; Van Woensel, William; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

    2017-01-01

    Capturing complete medical knowledge is challenging-often due to incomplete patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), but also because of valuable, tacit medical knowledge hidden away in physicians' experiences. To extend the coverage of incomplete medical knowledge-based systems beyond their deductive closure, and thus enhance their decision-support capabilities, we argue that innovative, multi-strategy reasoning approaches should be applied. In particular, plausible reasoning mechanisms apply patterns from human thought processes, such as generalization, similarity and interpolation, based on attributional, hierarchical, and relational knowledge. Plausible reasoning mechanisms include inductive reasoning, which generalizes the commonalities among the data to induce new rules, and analogical reasoning, which is guided by data similarities to infer new facts. By further leveraging rich, biomedical Semantic Web ontologies to represent medical knowledge, both known and tentative, we increase the accuracy and expressivity of plausible reasoning, and cope with issues such as data heterogeneity, inconsistency and interoperability. In this paper, we present a Semantic Web-based, multi-strategy reasoning approach, which integrates deductive and plausible reasoning and exploits Semantic Web technology to solve complex clinical decision support queries. We evaluated our system using a real-world medical dataset of patients with hepatitis, from which we randomly removed different percentages of data (5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%) to reflect scenarios with increasing amounts of incomplete medical knowledge. To increase the reliability of the results, we generated 5 independent datasets for each percentage of missing values, which resulted in 20 experimental datasets (in addition to the original dataset). The results show that plausibly inferred knowledge extends the coverage of the knowledge base by, on average, 2%, 7%, 12%, and 16% for datasets with, respectively, 5%, 10%, 15%, and

  20. Representations of physical plausibility revealed by event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roser, Matthew E; Fugelsang, Jonathan A; Handy, Todd C; Dunbar, Kevin N; Gazzaniga, Michael S

    2009-08-05

    Maintaining an accurate mental representation of the current environment is crucial to detecting change in that environment and ensuring behavioral coherence. Past experience with interactions between objects, such as collisions, has been shown to influence the perception of object interactions. To assess whether mental representations of object interactions derived from experience influence the maintenance of a mental model of the current stimulus environment, we presented physically plausible and implausible collision events while recording brain electrical activity. The parietal P300 response to 'oddball' events was found to be modulated by the physical plausibility of the stimuli, suggesting that past experience of object interactions can influence working memory processes involved in monitoring ongoing changes to the environment.

  1. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems networks of plausible inference

    CERN Document Server

    Pearl, Judea

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provid

  2. Complex Learning in Bio-plausible Memristive Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Deng, Lei; Li, Guoqi; Deng, Ning; Dong WANG; Zhang, Ziyang; He, Wei; Li, Huanglong; Pei, Jing; Shi, Luping

    2015-01-01

    The emerging memristor-based neuromorphic engineering promises an efficient computing paradigm. However, the lack of both internal dynamics in the previous feedforward memristive networks and efficient learning algorithms in recurrent networks, fundamentally limits the learning ability of existing systems. In this work, we propose a framework to support complex learning functions by introducing dedicated learning algorithms to a bio-plausible recurrent memristive network with internal dynamic...

  3. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  4. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  5. Recreational Reading for Gifted Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangieri, John N.; Isaacs, Carolyn W.

    1983-01-01

    A bibliography lists approximately 100 works (1974-82) of fiction, biography, poetry, fantasy/science fiction, picture books, and mystery/adventure for gifted elementary children's recreational reading. Citations include information on author, approximate grade level, and publisher. (CL)

  6. Massachusetts Recreational Fishing Demand Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in 2012 from Massachuestts saltwater recreational fishermen. Saltwater anglers fishing in Massachusetts (MA)...

  7. Prebiotically plausible mechanisms increase compositional diversity of nucleic acid sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derr, Julien; Manapat, Michael L; Rajamani, Sudha; Leu, Kevin; Xulvi-Brunet, Ramon; Joseph, Isaac; Nowak, Martin A; Chen, Irene A

    2012-05-01

    During the origin of life, the biological information of nucleic acid polymers must have increased to encode functional molecules (the RNA world). Ribozymes tend to be compositionally unbiased, as is the vast majority of possible sequence space. However, ribonucleotides vary greatly in synthetic yield, reactivity and degradation rate, and their non-enzymatic polymerization results in compositionally biased sequences. While natural selection could lead to complex sequences, molecules with some activity are required to begin this process. Was the emergence of compositionally diverse sequences a matter of chance, or could prebiotically plausible reactions counter chemical biases to increase the probability of finding a ribozyme? Our in silico simulations using a two-letter alphabet show that template-directed ligation and high concatenation rates counter compositional bias and shift the pool toward longer sequences, permitting greater exploration of sequence space and stable folding. We verified experimentally that unbiased DNA sequences are more efficient templates for ligation, thus increasing the compositional diversity of the pool. Our work suggests that prebiotically plausible chemical mechanisms of nucleic acid polymerization and ligation could predispose toward a diverse pool of longer, potentially structured molecules. Such mechanisms could have set the stage for the appearance of functional activity very early in the emergence of life.

  8. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  9. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  10. Exercise is recreation not medicine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Andy Smith

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper responds to the question, is exercise medicine? It does so using a qualitative case study that proposes that exercise is recreation. The study (1) describes and reflects upon an exercise is recreation metaphor, (2) establishes the principles and processes used to develop a sport park within which exercise is recreation, and (3) presents a comparative analysis of the exercise is recreation approach with a UK quality framework for“exercise referrals”. Methods: Four years of documentation were collated and placed into 14 categories: (1) university strategies, (2) plans of the site, (3) policy documents, (4) minutes of a steering group, (5) contemporary documents, (6) organisational charts, (7) responses to local government policies on sport, (8) consultation documents, (9) operational procedures, (10) facility specifications, (11) partnership agreements, (12) material relating to the university’s work on events, (13) notes on the universities sport department, and (14) timetables. These data were analysed through a 4-stage process which used recreation as the analytical theme for a comparative analysis. Results: The characteristics of the exercise is recreation metaphor in this case are (1) a focus on the experience of the user, (2) the promotion of well-being, (3) the importance of community, (4) embracing inclusivity, (5) sport, (6) aesthetics, and (7) leisure time. The principles and processes used to develop the sport park were (1) custodianship, (2) partnerships, (3) values, (4) inter-professional working, (5) local heritage, (6) change, (7) the natural park environment, and (8)“riding the bike as you build it”. The comparative analysis with a UK quality framework for“exercise referrals”clearly shows a difference from an exercise is recreation approach.

  11. Neural networks, nativism, and the plausibility of constructivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartz, S R

    1993-09-01

    Recent interest in PDP (parallel distributed processing) models is due in part to the widely held belief that they challenge many of the assumptions of classical cognitive science. In the domain of language acquisition, for example, there has been much interest in the claim that PDP models might undermine nativism. Related arguments based on PDP learning have also been given against Fodor's anti-constructivist position--a position that has contributed to the widespread dismissal of constructivism. A limitation of many of the claims regarding PDP learning, however, is that the principles underlying this learning have not been rigorously characterized. In this paper, I examine PDP models from within the framework of Valiant's PAC (probably approximately correct) model of learning, now the dominant model in machine learning, and which applies naturally to neural network learning. From this perspective, I evaluate the implications of PDP models for nativism and Fodor's influential anti-constructivist position. In particular, I demonstrate that, contrary to a number of claims, PDP models are nativist in a robust sense. I also demonstrate that PDP models actually serve as a good illustration of Fodor's anti-constructivist position. While these results may at first suggest that neural network models in general are incapable of the sort of concept acquisition that is required to refute Fodor's anti-constructivist position, I suggest that there is an alternative form of neural network learning that demonstrates the plausibility of constructivism. This alternative form of learning is a natural interpretation of the constructivist position in terms of neural network learning, as it employs learning algorithms that incorporate the addition of structure in addition to weight modification schemes. By demonstrating that there is a natural and plausible interpretation of constructivism in terms of neural network learning, the position that nativism is the only plausible model of

  12. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  13. Female Consumers Recreational Shopping Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarbjot Singh

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study examines the core meaning of intrinsic shopping to understand their experimental aspects of recreational and leisure shopping. The study focus only on female shoppers of age group ranging from 25-30, and understand their mall experiences because this segment is newly transform into self dependent segment which have less social and familial liabilities and have enough enthusiasm to explore the world or their boundaries. The Grounded theory use for identification of recreational shopping themes which are (a seeking experiences and (b experimental shopping and each have respective sub themes. The themes are connected to the key idea that shoppers are motivated by their expectations and desires. The study uses social constructivism to find and understand the shopper meanings in real terms rather than imposing and judgment on them. The findings described the way people do recreational shopping and how shopping malls use as leisure space and become facilitators of recreational shopping activities. Females use malls to fulfill their recreational and leisure shopping experiences as this is the great way of enjoying shopping for females of small towns. In malls females not only enjoy product experiences but services experiences also which makes their shopping interesting. The way the female of this age category use malls help the marketers and retailers to understand this segment shopping patterns.

  14. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  15. On the biological plausibility of Wind Turbine Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Robert V

    2015-01-01

    An emerging environmental health issue relates to potential ill-effects of wind turbine noise. There have been numerous suggestions that the low-frequency acoustic components in wind turbine signals can cause symptoms associated with vestibular system disorders, namely vertigo, nausea, and nystagmus. This constellation of symptoms has been labeled as Wind Turbine Syndrome, and has been identified in case studies of individuals living close to wind farms. This review discusses whether it is biologically plausible for the turbine noise to stimulate the vestibular parts of the inner ear and, by extension, cause Wind Turbine Syndrome. We consider the sound levels that can activate the semicircular canals or otolith end organs in normal subjects, as well as in those with preexisting conditions known to lower vestibular threshold to sound stimulation.

  16. Hamiltonian formulation of time-dependent plausible inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davis, Sergio

    2014-01-01

    Maximization of the path information entropy is a clear prescription for performing time-dependent plausible inference. Here it is shown that, following this prescription under the assumption of arbitrary instantaneous constraints on position and velocity, a Lagrangian emerges which determines the most probable trajectory. Deviations from the probability maximum can be consistently described as slices in time by a Hamiltonian, according to a nonlinear Langevin equation and its associated Fokker-Planck equation. The connections unveiled between the maximization of path entropy and the Langevin/Fokker-Planck equations imply that missing information about the phase space coordinate never decreases in time, a purely information-theoretical version of the Second Law of Thermodynamics. All of these results are independent of any physical assumptions, and thus valid for any generalized coordinate as a function of time, or any other parameter. This reinforces the view that the Second Law is a fundamental property of ...

  17. Alkaloids from Pandanus amaryllifolius: Isolation and Their Plausible Biosynthetic Formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Yu-Chi; Yu, Meng-Lun; El-Shazly, Mohamed; Beerhues, Ludger; Cheng, Yuan-Bin; Chen, Lei-Chin; Hwang, Tsong-Long; Chen, Hui-Fen; Chung, Yu-Ming; Hou, Ming-Feng; Wu, Yang-Chang; Chang, Fang-Rong

    2015-10-23

    Pandanus amaryllifolius Roxb. (Pandanaceae) is used as a flavor and in folk medicine in Southeast Asia. The ethanolic crude extract of the aerial parts of P. amaryllifolius exhibited antioxidant, antibiofilm, and anti-inflammatory activities in previous studies. In the current investigation, the purification of the ethanolic extract yielded nine new compounds, including N-acetylnorpandamarilactonines A (1) and B (2); pandalizines A (3) and B (4); pandanmenyamine (5); pandamarilactones 2 (6) and 3 (7), and 5(E)-pandamarilactonine-32 (8); and pandalactonine (9). The isolated alkaloids, with either a γ-alkylidene-α,β-unsaturated-γ-lactone or γ-alkylidene-α,β-unsaturated-γ-lactam system, can be classified into five skeletons including norpandamarilactonine, indolizinone, pandanamine, pandamarilactone, and pandamarilactonine. A plausible biosynthetic route toward 1-5, 7, and 9 is proposed.

  18. Complex Learning in Bio-plausible Memristive Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Lei; Li, Guoqi; Deng, Ning; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ziyang; He, Wei; Li, Huanglong; Pei, Jing; Shi, Luping

    2015-06-19

    The emerging memristor-based neuromorphic engineering promises an efficient computing paradigm. However, the lack of both internal dynamics in the previous feedforward memristive networks and efficient learning algorithms in recurrent networks, fundamentally limits the learning ability of existing systems. In this work, we propose a framework to support complex learning functions by introducing dedicated learning algorithms to a bio-plausible recurrent memristive network with internal dynamics. We fabricate iron oxide memristor-based synapses, with well controllable plasticity and a wide dynamic range of excitatory/inhibitory connection weights, to build the network. To adaptively modify the synaptic weights, the comprehensive recursive least-squares (RLS) learning algorithm is introduced. Based on the proposed framework, the learning of various timing patterns and a complex spatiotemporal pattern of human motor is demonstrated. This work paves a new way to explore the brain-inspired complex learning in neuromorphic systems.

  19. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  20. Problem solving through recreational mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Averbach, Bonnie

    1999-01-01

    Historically, many of the most important mathematical concepts arose from problems that were recreational in origin. This book takes advantage of that fact, using recreational mathematics - problems, puzzles and games - to teach students how to think critically. Encouraging active participation rather than just observation, the book focuses less on mathematical results than on how these results can be applied to thinking about problems and solving them. Each chapter contains a diverse array of problems in such areas as logic, number and graph theory, two-player games of strategy, solitaire ga

  1. Main Elements for Upscaling Recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Termansen, Mette

    2012-01-01

    This report provides information on the main elements used to scale up modelled local visitor flow data to regional level based on recreational de-mand models. These models are described in Report #1. This report also provides information on data sources such as spatial data (e.g. land cov......-er/land use information), demographic information. The report is accom-pagnied with a spatial database for the regional case of forest recreation in Northern Zealand, Denmark. The spatial database contains forest polygons; forest attribute; estimation of total annual number of visits per site; and es...

  2. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Reginster, I.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2006-01-01

    objectives. The scenarios also consider changes in protected areas (for conservation or recreation goals) and how these might provide a break on future land use change. The approach to estimate new protected areas is based in part on the use of models of species distribution and richness. All scenarios...

  3. Recreational Assets in the State of Iowa

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — This dataset is meant to be a comprehensive database of recreational assets in public areas. Recreational assets are considered amenities provided to the public for...

  4. Environmental Issues for Tourism and Recreation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙庆军

    2005-01-01

    The objectives of this article are to: analyze the relationship between tourism and recreation and major environmental issues; analyze tourism and recreation in the context of general issue of sustainable development; consider implications for policy development and implementation.

  5. US Forest Service Recreation Area Activities

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Forest Service, Department of Agriculture — A map service on the www depicting the recreation area activity information that the Forest Service collects through the Recreation Portal and shares with the public...

  6. Stakeholders' perceptions about recreational events within Marine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stakeholders' perceptions about recreational events within Marine Protected Areas ... be used as a tool to enhance tourism growth and local economic development. ... Keywords: Marine Protected Areas, recreational events, marine tourism, ...

  7. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  8. Water Recreation and Illness Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abstract Background: The health endpoint of prior studies of water recreation has been the occurrence gastrointestinal (GI) of illness. The use of this dichotomous health outcome fails to take into account the range of symptom severity among those with GI illness, as well as thos...

  9. Recreational Reading: 20 Years Later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Cathy Collins; Mangieri, John N.

    2002-01-01

    Determines elementary teachers' knowledge of: current children's literature; children's books in six literary genres; and activities to promote students' recreational reading. Replicates a 1981 study to determine the level of knowledge possessed by today's teachers concerning children's literature and methods of increasing students' reading for…

  10. Dose in a recreational water park with thermal water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomassin, A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2006-07-01

    This paper assesses the annual effective dose received by the public due to baths in thermal water of a recreational water park in Royat (France) with significant levels of natural radionuclides. After the context be specified and the measurements of radioactivity presented, an assessment of radiological consequences is performed, based on an hypothetical scenario for persons of the public. Context The french commune of Royat in the Massif Central (centre of France) intends to build a recreational water park, using thermal water from a local source, out of the public water supply network. With this aim in view, the operator builds up a technical file to get a prefectorial authorization. Considering that many waters and thermal waters in this area have significant levels of natural radionuclides (granitic subsoil) on the one hand, and that the operator of establishments receiving public is requested by L 1333-10 article of the Public Health Code to supervise the exposure if an impact on health is possible on the other hand, the operator asked I.R.S.N. to measure the level of radioactivity in the water. Considering the level of radioactivity measured, the competent authority then asks I.R.S.N. if this level is compatible with its use in a recreational water park. After calculations it appears that in the particular case of the commune of Royat, the level of activity of natural radionuclides of the thermal water (22 Bq.L{sup -1} for {sup 222}Rn) is compatible with its use in a recreational water park, the annual effective dose being about 40 {mu}Sv with a conservative approach. For other thermal waters in France winch could have much higher levels of natural radioactivity, it is recommended to pay attention to their use in recreational water park. (N.C.)

  11. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  12. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  13. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  14. Approaches to measuring cultural diversity in recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chieh-Lu Li; James D. Absher; Yi-Chung Hsu; Alan R. Graefe

    2008-01-01

    Measuring cultural diversity in recreation has become an important topic because of the increasing coverage of and interest in ethnicity and cross-cultural aspects of recreation. Introducing theories and methods from established disciplines other than leisure studies/recreation and park studies is necessary to understand this important issue. In this article, we first...

  15. Sustainable Development of Lithuanian Seacoast Recreational Objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Abromas

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recreational architecture is a branch of architectural activity whose main object is formation of recreational spaces (territories, buildings, complexes and equipment. The goal of recreational architecture is to create optimal (comfortable, lovely and realizable environment for all recreation types and forms. This goal is realized by projects which are based on scientific research and recommendations. This activity needs more than casual work and living environment. It needs special space and equipment: territory, water area, buildings, and rooms. Everything can be called recreational environment. Recreational environment can be of various dimensional scales: enormous seaside or lake areas intended for recreation, resorts, recreational institution complexes and many single buildings, beaches, forest parks, pools. Recreational environment is possible not only out of town but in town as well. Beginning of recreational architecture is observed in antique cultures, but as a separate specific architectural activity branch it rapidly began to spread in last century first half and in Lithuania – in the last four decades. In this work, analysis of evaluating recreational architecture is made seeking to reveal recreational architecture evaluating criteria and their use .Article in Lithuanian

  16. 24 CFR 1710.214 - Recreational facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Recreational facilities. 1710.214... § 1710.214 Recreational facilities. (a) Submit a synopsis of the proposed plans and estimated cost of any proposed or partially constructed recreational facility disclosed in § 1710.114. This item should...

  17. Liderazgo preventivo para la universidad. Una experiencia plausible

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Rodríguez Rodríguez

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available El desarrollo del liderazgo, en el ámbito educativo superior, busca soluciones de aplicación inmediata a contextos en que todo líder se desenvuelve, pero se diluye el sustento teórico-práctico en la formación del líder que posibilite entender los procesos intelectivos durante la toma de decisiones. El paradigma de convergencia entre el método antropológico lonerganiano, la comunidad de aprendizaje vygotskiana y una relectura del sistema preventivo salesiano se presentan como propuesta plausible de formación al liderazgo preventivo entre los diversos actores de una comunidad universitaria. Un estudio de caso de la Universidad Salesiana en México empleando un método mixto de investigación, facilita una relectura del liderazgo desde una óptica preventiva como posibilidad de convergencia en un diálogo interdisciplinar. Los resultados teórico-práctico propuestos y examinados se muestran como herramienta útil para evaluar, enriquecer y renovar la teoría sobre el líder y el desarrollo de liderazgo en las universidades frente a una sociedad globalizada.

  18. A perspective on SIDS pathogenesis. The hypotheses: plausibility and evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldwater Paul N

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Several theories of the underlying mechanisms of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS have been proposed. These theories have born relatively narrow beach-head research programs attracting generous research funding sustained for many years at expense to the public purse. This perspective endeavors to critically examine the evidence and bases of these theories and determine their plausibility; and questions whether or not a safe and reasoned hypothesis lies at their foundation. The Opinion sets specific criteria by asking the following questions: 1. Does the hypothesis take into account the key pathological findings in SIDS? 2. Is the hypothesis congruent with the key epidemiological risk factors? 3. Does it link 1 and 2? Falling short of any one of these answers, by inference, would imply insufficient grounds for a sustainable hypothesis. Some of the hypotheses overlap, for instance, notional respiratory failure may encompass apnea, prone sleep position, and asphyxia which may be seen to be linked to co-sleeping. For the purposes of this paper, each element will be assessed on the above criteria.

  19. A plausible explanation for male dominance in typhoid ileal perforation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan M

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Mohammad KhanDepartment of Microbiology, College of Medicine, Chichiri, Blantyre, MalawiAbstract: The phenomenon of consistent male dominance in typhoid ileal perforation (TIP is not well understood. It cannot be explained on the basis of microbial virulence, Peyer's patch anatomy, ileal wall thickness, gastric acidity, host genetic factors, or sex-linked bias in hospital attendance. The cytokine response to an intestinal infection in males is predominantly proinflammatory as compared with that in females, presumably due to differences in the sex hormonal milieu. Sex hormone receptors have been detected on lymphocytes and macrophages, including on Peyer's patches, inflammation of which (probably similar to the Shwartzman reaction/Koch phenomenon is the forerunner of TIP, and is not excluded from the regulatory effects of sex hormones. Hormonal control of host-pathogen interaction may override genetic control. Environmental exposure to Salmonella typhi may be more frequent in males, presumably due to sex-linked differences in hygiene practices and dining-out behavior. A plausible explanation of male dominance in TIP could include sex-linked differences in the degree of natural exposure of Peyer's patches to S. typhi. An alternative explanation may include sexual dimorphism in host inflammatory response patterns in Peyer's patches that have been induced by S. typhi. Both hypotheses are testable.Keywords: explanation, dominance, male, perforation, ileum, typhoid

  20. A plausible explanation for male dominance in typhoid ileal perforation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    The phenomenon of consistent male dominance in typhoid ileal perforation (TIP) is not well understood. It cannot be explained on the basis of microbial virulence, Peyer's patch anatomy, ileal wall thickness, gastric acidity, host genetic factors, or sex-linked bias in hospital attendance. The cytokine response to an intestinal infection in males is predominantly proinflammatory as compared with that in females, presumably due to differences in the sex hormonal milieu. Sex hormone receptors have been detected on lymphocytes and macrophages, including on Peyer's patches, inflammation of which (probably similar to the Shwartzman reaction/Koch phenomenon) is the forerunner of TIP, and is not excluded from the regulatory effects of sex hormones. Hormonal control of host-pathogen interaction may override genetic control. Environmental exposure to Salmonella typhi may be more frequent in males, presumably due to sex-linked differences in hygiene practices and dining-out behavior. A plausible explanation of male dominance in TIP could include sex-linked differences in the degree of natural exposure of Peyer's patches to S. typhi. An alternative explanation may include sexual dimorphism in host inflammatory response patterns in Peyer's patches that have been induced by S. typhi. Both hypotheses are testable.

  1. Proceedings of the 1997 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans G. Vogelsong; [Editor

    1998-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 1997 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover recreation; protected areas and social science; water based recreation management studies; forest recreation management studies; outdoor recreation management studies; estimation of economic impact of recreation and tourism; place meaning and attachment; tourism studies;...

  2. A biologically plausible embodied model of action discovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rufino eBolado-Gomez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available During development, animals can spontaneously discover action-outcomepairings enabling subsequent achievement of their goals. We present abiologically plausible embodied model addressing key aspects of thisprocess. The biomimetic model core comprises the basal ganglia and itsloops through cortex and thalamus. We incorporate reinforcementlearning with phasic dopamine supplying a sensory prediction error,signalling 'surprising' outcomes. Phasic dopamine is used in acorticostriatal learning rule which is consistent with recent data. Wealso hypothesised that objects associated with surprising outcomesacquire 'novelty salience' contingent on the predicability of theoutcome. To test this idea we used a simple model of predictiongoverning the dynamics of novelty salience and phasic dopamine. Thetask of the virtual robotic agent mimicked an in vivo counterpart(Gancarz et al., 2011 and involved interaction with a target objectwhich caused a light flash, or a control object which did not.Learning took place according to two schedules. In one, the phasicoutcome was delivered after interaction with the target in anunpredictable way which emulated the in vivo protocol. Without noveltysalience, the model was unable to account for the experimental data.In the other schedule, the phasic outcome was reliably delivered andthe agent showed a rapid increase in the number of interactions withthe target which then decreased over subsequent sessions. We arguethis is precisely the kind of change in behaviour required torepeatedly present representations of context, action and outcome, toneural networks responsible for learning action-outcome contingency.The model also showed corticostriatal plasticity consistent withlearning a new action in basal ganglia. We conclude that actionlearning is underpinned by a complex interplay of plasticity andstimulus salience, and that our model contains many of the elementsfor biological action discovery to take place.

  3. Outdoor recreation in forest policy and legislation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mann, Carsten; Pouta, Eija; Gentin, Sandra;

    2010-01-01

    The benefists of outdoor recreation and the need for recreation inventories and monitoring are described in various policy and legislation documents at the European level. The objective of this paper is to analyse how these recreational aspects are reflected at the national level in core forest...... in the field of outdoor recreation, and reveal similarities, differences, gaps and future needs. Among the main findings is a contradiction between the expressed political importance of outdoor recreation at the national level, and the absence of binding commitments for action. The majority of the countries...... surveyed recognise and express outdoor recreation in some form of political and/or legislative way. However, recreation monitoring or measurements are rarely mentioned in relevant policies or acts at the national, regional or local level, perhaps due to a l ack of political will or resources. The analysis...

  4. Changing beliefs about implausible autobiographical events: a little plausibility goes a long way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoni, G A; Loftus, E F; Kirsch, I

    2001-03-01

    Three experiments investigated the malleability of perceived plausibility and the subjective likelihood of occurrence of plausible and implausible events among participants who had no recollection of experiencing them. In Experiment 1, a plausibility-enhancing manipulation (reading accounts of the occurrence of events) combined with a personalized suggestion increased the perceived plausibility of the implausible event, as well as participants' ratings of the likelihood that they had experienced it. Plausibility and likelihood ratings were uncorrelated. Subsequent studies showed that the plausibility manipulation alone was sufficient to increase likelihood ratings but only if the accounts that participants read were set in a contemporary context. These data suggest that false autobiographical beliefs can be induced in clinical and forensic contexts even for initially implausible events.

  5. An Ecosystem Approach to Recreation Location Quotients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Vogel

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread agreement on the importance of preserving ecological integrity in conservation and outdoor recreation decision-making processes, traditional metrics analyzing the supply of and demand for conservation and recreation resources have focused on geographical and population-centric units of measurement rather than ecological ones. One tool past researchers have used to inform recreation resource planning is the recreation location quotient (RLQ. While simple park-to-population ratios or acres-per-capita metrics provide a base measure of carrying capacity and are often useful to set broad recreation supply standards, the RLQ offers a more nuanced snapshot of supply and demand by comparing regional ratios to a standardized reference region. The RLQ is thus able to provide a statistic or quotient that highlights regions where recreation resources are particularly abundant and/or scarce relative to a reference area. This project expands the past RLQ analyses by investigating the distribution of recreation resources across the 10 ecological sections found within the US state of Minnesota. RLQs were calculated using recreation trail mileage, natural resource and recreation area acreage data, and recreation facility data from federal, state, and local agencies. Results found notable differences in supply of recreation resources across ecological sections. Some sections were considerably underrepresented in recreation resources-per area (e.g., Red River Valley and North Central Glaciated Plains while others were underrepresented in recreation resources-per capita (e.g., Minnesota and Northeast Iowa Morainal. The RLQ statistics and resulting maps illustrating relative surplus or deficiencies can inform future land acquisition decisions and highlight the need for cross-jurisdictional planning in order to ensure outdoor recreation systems are ecologically representative. Possible implications and recommendations for future planning

  6. Nephrotoxicity of recreational party drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berney-Meyer, Linda; Putt, Tracey; Schollum, John; Walker, Robert

    2012-02-01

    N-benzylpiperazine (BZP) is the active ingredient in recreational 'party' pills with a stimulant, euphoric mechanism of action akin to that of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or ecstasy). Many people (ab)use BZP-based party pills usually without any significant toxic effects. However, nephrotoxicity secondary to hyperthermia and rhabdomyolysis has been reported. Another serious renal-related side-effect is hyponatraemia with acute cerebral oedema. There is also evidence that these agents may have a specific toxic effect producing acute kidney injury. Thus, acute kidney injury either direct or secondary to the effects of BZP or MDMA need to be considered when any individual presents with symptoms of a recreational party drug overdose.

  7. Therapeutic and recreational methadone cardiotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusetti, Monia; Licata, Manuela; Silingardi, Enrico; Reggiani Bonetti, Luca; Palmiere, Cristian

    2016-04-01

    Several classes of drugs have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and occurrence of arrhythmias potentially involved in sudden deaths in chronic users even at therapeutic doses. The study presented herein focuses on pathological changes involving the heart possibly due to methadone use. 60 cases were included in the study in total and were divided into three groups (therapeutic methadone users: 20 cases, recreational methadone users: 20 cases, and sudden death group in subjects who had never taken methadone: 20 cases). Autopsies, histology, biochemistry and toxicology were performed in all cases. Macroscopic and microscopic investigation results in therapeutic methadone users were similar to those observed in sudden, unexpected deaths in non-methadone users. In recreational methadone consumers, macroscopic and microscopic examination of the heart failed to provide results consistent with acute or chronic myocardial or coronary damage, thereby corroborating the hypothesis of death most likely following respiratory depression.

  8. Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. F. Diniz-Filho

    Full Text Available The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill. Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

  9. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  10. Scenario Planning: A Phenomenological Examination of Influence on Organizational Learning and Decision-Making in a K-12 Public Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deklotz, Patricia F.

    2013-01-01

    Organizations commonly engage in long range planning to direct decisions. Scenario planning, one method of private sector planning, is recognized as useful when organizations are facing uncertainty. Scenario planning engages the organization in a process that produces plausible stories, called scenarios, describing the organization in several…

  11. Scenario Planning: A Phenomenological Examination of Influence on Organizational Learning and Decision-Making in a K-12 Public Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deklotz, Patricia F.

    2013-01-01

    Organizations commonly engage in long range planning to direct decisions. Scenario planning, one method of private sector planning, is recognized as useful when organizations are facing uncertainty. Scenario planning engages the organization in a process that produces plausible stories, called scenarios, describing the organization in several…

  12. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  13. Ecotourism Development in Recreational Forest Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. A.H. Bhuiyan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study explored the issues and strategies of ecotourism development in recreational forest areas of Malaysia. There are a number of forest recreational areas and reserves. The recreation forests are designated and managed under the forestry department. These recreational areas of scenic beauty comprise about 0.05% of the total forest reserves in Peninsular Malaysia. Ecotourism should be set in natural areas with special biological, ecological, or cultural interest. Objective: The aim of this study was to illustrate the potentiality to develop ecotourism in the recreational forests of ECER, especially in Sekayu recreational forest area. Approach: The data for analysis is obtained from the secondary sources. Results: The study showed that there are opportunities and potentialities in the recreational forests of ECER for ecotourism development. These are suitable location, availabilities of recreational forests, attractive natural beauty, pollution free environment, limited natural disaster and infrastructure development. There is some strategiesecological integrity, tourism urbanization, forest tourism development, government role and tour operator initiatives can be followed for ecotourism development in the recreational forests of this region. Conclusion: Appropriate policy, initiative and tourism development activities can be ensured ecotourism development in the recreational forests of Malaysia as well as ECER. In Sekayu, community participation must be increased for the sustainable ecotourism development in the forest.

  14. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  15. Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Escobar, Luis E; Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J; Phelps, Nicholas B D

    2017-01-01

    Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species' suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain.

  16. Forecasting distributions of an aquatic invasive species (Nitellopsis obtusa) under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varela, Sara; Larkin, Daniel J.; Phelps, Nicholas B. D.

    2017-01-01

    Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detection and strategic management. We used ecological niche models to identify suitable areas for starry stonewort in Minnesota based on global occurrence records and present-day and future climate conditions. We assessed sensitivity of forecasts to different parameters, using four emission scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, and RCP 8.5) from five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, and MRI). From our niche model analyses, we found that (i) occurrences from the entire range, instead of occurrences restricted to the invaded range, provide more informed models; (ii) default settings in Maxent did not provide the best model; (iii) the model calibration area and its background samples impact model performance; (iv) model projections to future climate conditions should be restricted to analogous environments; and (v) forecasts in future climate conditions should include different future climate models and model calibration areas to better capture uncertainty in forecasts. Under present climate, the most suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to be found in central and southeastern Minnesota. In the future, suitable areas for starry stonewort are predicted to shift in geographic range under some future climate models and to shrink under others, with most permutations indicating a net decrease of the species’ suitable range. Our suitability maps can serve to design short-term plans for surveillance and education, while future climate models suggest a plausible reduction of starry stonewort spread in the long-term if the trends in climate warming remain

  17. Methodology for the Valuation of Forest Recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Termansen, Mette

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this report #1 is to provide an overview and description of the methodology and data sources used in order to evaluate forest recreation in terms of monetary values and visitor numbers on a spatially explicit basis using an indirect valuation methodology. Report #2 reports the main...... ele-ments used to predict and upscale visitor flows and site values to the region of North Zealand and the results. Background to the report is the development of the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) model developed by JRC, which maps the recreation potential in Europe. The ROS is based...... on a recreation service supply approach where indices of recreation potentials are linked with zoning of areas in terms of proximity versus remoteness from where people live. The ROS maps opportunities rather than the actual recreation taking place. A validation of the ROS model has been made using revealed...

  18. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  19. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  20. Does Zoning Winter Recreationists Reduce Recreation Conflict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aubrey D; Vaske, Jerry J; Squires, John R; Olson, Lucretia E; Roberts, Elizabeth K

    2017-01-01

    Parks and protected area managers use zoning to decrease interpersonal conflict between recreationists. Zoning, or segregation, of recreation-often by non-motorized and motorized activity-is designed to limit physical interaction while providing recreation opportunities to both groups. This article investigated the effectiveness of zoning to reduce recreation conflict in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area in Colorado, USA. Despite a zoning management system, established groomed travel routes were used by both non-motorized recreationists (backcountry skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers) and motorized recreationists (snowmobilers). We hypothesized that persistent recreation conflict reported by non-motorized recreationists was the result of recreation occurring in areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use, mostly along groomed routes. We performed a geospatial analysis of recreation [from Global Positioning System (GPS) points, n = 1,233,449] in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area to identify areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use. We then surveyed non-motorized recreationists (n = 199) to test whether reported conflict is higher for respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with respondents traveling outside areas of mixed-use. Results from the geospatial analysis showed that only 0.7 % of the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area contained recreation from both groups, however that area contained 14.8 % of all non-motorized recreation and 49.1 % of all motorized recreation. Survey analysis results showed higher interpersonal conflict for all five standard conflict variables among non-motorized respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with those traveling outside mixed-use areas. Management implications and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of zoning are provided.

  1. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  2. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  3. Flux-based transport enhancement as a plausible unifying mechanism for auxin transport in meristem development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Stoma

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Plants continuously generate new organs through the activity of populations of stem cells called meristems. The shoot apical meristem initiates leaves, flowers, and lateral meristems in highly ordered, spiralled, or whorled patterns via a process called phyllotaxis. It is commonly accepted that the active transport of the plant hormone auxin plays a major role in this process. Current hypotheses propose that cellular hormone transporters of the PIN family would create local auxin maxima at precise positions, which in turn would lead to organ initiation. To explain how auxin transporters could create hormone fluxes to distinct regions within the plant, different concepts have been proposed. A major hypothesis, canalization, proposes that the auxin transporters act by amplifying and stabilizing existing fluxes, which could be initiated, for example, by local diffusion. This convincingly explains the organised auxin fluxes during vein formation, but for the shoot apical meristem a second hypothesis was proposed, where the hormone would be systematically transported towards the areas with the highest concentrations. This implies the coexistence of two radically different mechanisms for PIN allocation in the membrane, one based on flux sensing and the other on local concentration sensing. Because these patterning processes require the interaction of hundreds of cells, it is impossible to estimate on a purely intuitive basis if a particular scenario is plausible or not. Therefore, computational modelling provides a powerful means to test this type of complex hypothesis. Here, using a dedicated computer simulation tool, we show that a flux-based polarization hypothesis is able to explain auxin transport at the shoot meristem as well, thus providing a unifying concept for the control of auxin distribution in the plant. Further experiments are now required to distinguish between flux-based polarization and other hypotheses.

  4. A plausible (overlooked) super-luminous supernova in the Sloan digital sky survey stripe 82 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Zuzanna; Kozłowski, Szymon; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Djorgovski, S. George; Mahabal, Ashish A. [California Institute of Technology, 1200 E California Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Glikman, Eilat [Department of Physics and Yale Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Yale University, P.O. Box 208121, New Haven, CT 06520-8121 (United States); Koposov, Sergey, E-mail: zkostrzewa@astrouw.edu.pl, E-mail: simkoz@astrouw.edu.pl, E-mail: wyrzykow@astrouw.edu.pl [Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2013-12-01

    We present the discovery of a plausible super-luminous supernova (SLSN), found in the archival data of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, called PSN 000123+000504. The supernova (SN) peaked at m {sub g} < 19.4 mag in the second half of 2005 September, but was missed by the real-time SN hunt. The observed part of the light curve (17 epochs) showed that the rise to the maximum took over 30 days, while the decline time lasted at least 70 days (observed frame), closely resembling other SLSNe of SN 2007bi type. The spectrum of the host galaxy reveals a redshift of z = 0.281 and the distance modulus of μ = 40.77 mag. Combining this information with the SDSS photometry, we found the host galaxy to be an LMC-like irregular dwarf galaxy with an absolute magnitude of M{sub B} = –18.2 ± 0.2 mag and an oxygen abundance of 12+log [O/H]=8.3±0.2; hence, the SN peaked at M {sub g} < –21.3 mag. Our SLSN follows the relation for the most energetic/super-luminous SNe exploding in low-metallicity environments, but we found no clear evidence for SLSNe to explode in low-luminosity (dwarf) galaxies only. The available information on the PSN 000123+000504 light curve suggests the magnetar-powered model as a likely scenario of this event. This SLSN is a new addition to a quickly growing family of super-luminous SNe.

  5. Community-based recreational football

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ditte Marie; Bjerre, Eik; Krustrup, Peter

    2014-01-01

    is limited and the majority of prostate cancer survivors remain sedentary. Hence, novel approaches to evaluate and promote physical activity are warranted. This paper presents the rationale behind the delivery and evaluation of community-based recreational football offered in existing football clubs under...... the Danish Football Association to promote quality of life and physical activity adherence in prostate cancer survivors. The RE-AIM framework will be applied to evaluate the impact of the intervention including outcomes both at the individual and organizational level. By introducing community-based sport...

  6. Proceedings of the 2003 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, comp., ed. Murdy; ed. comp.

    2004-01-01

    Contains articles presented at the 2003 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover planning issues, communications and information, management presentations, service quality and outdoor recreation, recreation behavior, founders? forum, featured posters, tourism and the community, specialized recreation, recreation and the community, management issues in...

  7. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  8. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  9. Does Zoning Winter Recreationists Reduce Recreation Conflict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Aubrey D.; Vaske, Jerry J.; Squires, John R.; Olson, Lucretia E.; Roberts, Elizabeth K.

    2017-01-01

    Parks and protected area managers use zoning to decrease interpersonal conflict between recreationists. Zoning, or segregation, of recreation—often by non-motorized and motorized activity—is designed to limit physical interaction while providing recreation opportunities to both groups. This article investigated the effectiveness of zoning to reduce recreation conflict in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area in Colorado, USA. Despite a zoning management system, established groomed travel routes were used by both non-motorized recreationists (backcountry skiers, snowboarders, snowshoers) and motorized recreationists (snowmobilers). We hypothesized that persistent recreation conflict reported by non-motorized recreationists was the result of recreation occurring in areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use, mostly along groomed routes. We performed a geospatial analysis of recreation [from Global Positioning System (GPS) points, n = 1,233,449] in the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area to identify areas of mixed non-motorized and motorized use. We then surveyed non-motorized recreationists ( n = 199) to test whether reported conflict is higher for respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with respondents traveling outside areas of mixed-use. Results from the geospatial analysis showed that only 0.7 % of the Vail Pass Winter Recreation Area contained recreation from both groups, however that area contained 14.8 % of all non-motorized recreation and 49.1 % of all motorized recreation. Survey analysis results showed higher interpersonal conflict for all five standard conflict variables among non-motorized respondents who traveled in areas of mixed-use, compared with those traveling outside mixed-use areas. Management implications and recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of zoning are provided.

  10. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  11. UNBC: Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, Pat

    2007-01-01

    This article describes the University of Northern British Columbia's (UNBC's) Outdoor Recreation and Tourism Management (ORTM) Program, which focuses squarely on the management of outdoor recreation as it relates to conservation (i.e., in and around parks and protected areas), tourism that is both based in and concerned with the natural/cultural…

  12. Sustainability in outdoor recreation and tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Winter; Kelly Bricker; Jeremy. Schultz

    2013-01-01

    Outdoor recreation and tourism represents a major service by which the public identifies with and better understands natural resources, even to the extent that it can foster environmental stewardship (for example, see Winter and Chavez 2008). Yet, myriad threats to recreation and tourism exist which need to be addressed. Addressing these threats can be...

  13. Rugged Practices: Embodying Authenticity in Outdoor Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senda-Cook, Samantha

    2012-01-01

    When people recreate outdoors, they value the quality of the experience. This study examines rhetorical practices that sustain or undermine perceived authentic outdoor recreation experiences. I conducted a rhetorical analysis of my fieldnotes gathered through participant observation and interview transcripts of online and in-person interviews. I…

  14. Ethics Audit of a Therapeutic Recreation Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisbett, Nancy; Hinton, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to enhance awareness of the presence of ethics education within the allied health discipline of therapeutic recreation. To achieve this end, a curriculum audit was conducted in a therapeutic recreation course to determine the existence of ethics education within the course. Included topics, methods of delivery, and…

  15. 36 CFR 294.1 - Recreation areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Recreation areas. 294.1 Section 294.1 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SPECIAL AREAS Miscellaneous Provisions § 294.1 Recreation areas. Suitable areas of national forest land, other than...

  16. Your Recreation Dollar. [Revised.] Money Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Nancy H., Ed.; Tarrant, Sharon M., Ed.

    This booklet on recreation, 1 in a series of 12, covers all the basic aspects of personal- and family-money management. Suitable for use by high school and college students as well as adults, this handbook suggests ways to plan recreation expenses for special activities, equipment, and vacation travel. Section 1 looks at the need for recreation…

  17. Solid Waste Management in Recreational Forest Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spooner, Charles S.

    The Forest Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture, requested the Bureau of Solid Waste Management to conduct a study of National Forest recreation areas to establish waste generation rates for major recreation activities and to determine the cost of solid waste handling for selected Forest Service Districts. This report describes the 1968 solid…

  18. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence From Word Segmentation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's cognitive plausibility...

  19. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  20. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  1. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence From Word Segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-11-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's cognitive plausibility. We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition model can aim to be cognitively plausible in multiple ways. We discuss these cognitive plausibility checkpoints generally and then apply them to a case study in word segmentation, investigating a promising Bayesian segmentation strategy. We incorporate cognitive plausibility by using an age-appropriate unit of perceptual representation, evaluating the model output in terms of its utility, and incorporating cognitive constraints into the inference process. Our more cognitively plausible model shows a beneficial effect of cognitive constraints on segmentation performance. One interpretation of this effect is as a synergy between the naive theories of language structure that infants may have and the cognitive constraints that limit the fidelity of their inference processes, where less accurate inference approximations are better when the underlying assumptions about how words are generated are less accurate. More generally, these results highlight the utility of incorporating cognitive plausibility more fully into computational models of language acquisition.

  2. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  3. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  4. Spatial preference heterogeneity in forest recreation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Garcia, Serge; Olsen, Søren Bøye;

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we analyze the preferences for recreational use of forests in Lorraine (Northeastern France), applying stated preference data. Our approach allows us to estimate individual-specific preferences for recreational use of different forest types. These estimates are used in a second stage...... of the analysis where we test whether preferences depend on access to recreation sites. We find that there is significant preference heterogeneity with respect to most forest attributes. The spatial analysis shows that preferences for forests with parking and picnic facilities are correlated with having access...

  5. Using critical evaluation to reappraise plausibility judgments: A critical cognitive component of conceptual change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, D.

    2011-12-01

    Plausibility judgments-although well represented in conceptual change theories (see, for example, Chi, 2005; diSessa, 1993; Dole & Sinatra, 1998; Posner et al., 1982)-have received little empirical attention until our recent work investigating teachers' and students' understanding of and perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010, 2011). In our first study with undergraduate students, we found that greater plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate accounted for significantly greater understanding of weather and climate distinctions after instruction, even after accounting for students' prior knowledge (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a follow-up study with inservice science and preservice elementary teachers, we showed that anger about the topic of climate change and teaching about climate change was significantly related to implausible perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2011). Results from our recent studies helped to inform our development of a model of the role of plausibility judgments in conceptual change situations. The model applies to situations involving cognitive dissonance, where background knowledge conflicts with an incoming message. In such situations, we define plausibility as a judgment on the relative potential truthfulness of incoming information compared to one's existing mental representations (Rescher, 1976). Students may not consciously think when making plausibility judgments, expending only minimal mental effort in what is referred to as an automatic cognitive process (Stanovich, 2009). However, well-designed instruction could facilitate students' reappraisal of plausibility judgments in more effortful and conscious cognitive processing. Critical evaluation specifically may be one effective method to promote plausibility reappraisal in a classroom setting (Lombardi & Sinatra, in progress). In science education, critical evaluation involves the analysis of how evidentiary

  6. FORESTS AND ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF RECREATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayri AKYÜZ

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine recreation of the relationship between forests and the environment. In this study the differential metho d (analytical method was used. By considering the relationship with the forests and the environment , together with literature data obtained were evaluat ed in relation wi th each other. Recreation, is defined as for people to live healthy and to work efficient ly to deteriorating integrity wished by the activities accessing again (Kılıçaslan, 2008. R ecreation areas also can be defined as places where recreational act ivities carried out (Uzun, 2005 . The unfavorable conditions in urban areas, and due to lack of recreational resources city dwellers, are turning to recreation resources which is outside of city. Especially because of its natural, cultural and visual va lues forested areas the most preferred comes at the beginning of recreation resources (Akten ve Akten, 2011. Forest recreation areas, "a forest integrity or on the part of a forest , relating to various outdoors recreation human activities are the place " (Aslanboğa ve Gül, 1999; Atken, 2003. In addition, forested areas for a variety of recreation use of natural resources can offer a combination of a substantial part, to people the physical and mental aspects have positively contributed (Akten ve Akten, 20 11. Hence forest recreation , in the forest and the wild depends on the surrounding natural resources can be defined as recreati onal activities and experiences (Hammit, 2004. T he environment also can be defined as where living things included and that carries all vital activities environment or circumstances (DPT, 1997. Negative results seen around the city, increases of the human - environment relationship in a healthy way to walk that will allow the need for recreation areas (Karahan ve Orhan, 20 09. People i n an effort to meet their physical and spiritual needs with social, cultural, economic, and physiological facilities are

  7. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  8. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  9. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  10. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  11. The addicted brain: imaging neurological complications of recreational drug abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya-Filardi, A; Mazón, M

    Recreational drug abuse represents a serious public health problem. Neuroimaging traditionally played a secondary role in this scenario, where it was limited to detecting acute vascular events. However, thanks to advances in knowledge about disease and in morphological and functional imaging techniques, radiologists have now become very important in the diagnosis of acute and chronic neurological complications of recreational drug abuse. The main complications are neurovascular disease, infection, toxicometabolic disorders, and brain atrophy. The nonspecific symptoms and denial of abuse make the radiologist's involvement fundamental in the management of these patients. Neuroimaging makes it possible to detect early changes and to suggest an etiological diagnosis in cases with specific patterns of involvement. We aim to describe the pattern of abuse and the pathophysiological mechanisms of the drugs with the greatest neurological repercussions as well as to illustrate the depiction of the acute and chronic cerebral complications on conventional and functional imaging techniques. Copyright © 2016 SERAM. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Interactions between visual and motor areas during the recognition of plausible actions as revealed by magnetoencephalography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlidou, Anastasia; Schnitzler, Alfons; Lange, Joachim

    2014-02-01

    Several studies have shown activation of the mirror neuron system (MNS), comprising the temporal, posterior parietal, and sensorimotor areas when observing plausible actions, but far less is known on how these cortical areas interact during the recognition of a plausible action. Here, we recorded neural activity with magnetoencephalography while subjects viewed point-light displays of biologically plausible and scrambled versions of actions. We were interested in modulations of oscillatory activity and, specifically, in coupling of oscillatory activity between visual and motor areas. Both plausible and scrambled actions elicited modulations of θ (5-7 Hz), α (7-13 Hz), β (13-35 Hz), and γ (55-100 Hz) power within visual and motor areas. When comparing between the two actions, we observed sequential and spatially distinct increases of γ (∼65 Hz), β (∼25 Hz), and α (∼11 Hz) power between 0.5 and 1.3 s in parieto-occipital, sensorimotor, and left temporal areas. In addition, significant clusters of γ (∼65 Hz) and α/β (∼15 Hz) power decrease were observed in right temporal and parieto-occipital areas between 1.3 and 2.0 s. We found β-power in sensorimotor areas to be positively correlated on a trial-by-trial basis with parieto-occipital γ and left temporal α-power for the plausible but not for the scrambled condition. These results provide new insights in the neuronal oscillatory activity of the areas involved in the recognition of plausible action movements and their interaction. The power correlations between specific areas underscore the importance of interactions between visual and motor areas of the MNS during the recognition of a plausible action.

  13. Predicting quantitative and qualitative values of recreation participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood L., Jr. Shafer; George Moeller

    1971-01-01

    If future recreation consumption and associated intangible values can be predicted, the problem of rapid decision making in recreation-resource management can be reduced, and the problems of implementing those decisions can be anticipated. Management and research responsibilities for meeting recreation demand are discussed, and proved methods for forecasting recreation...

  14. Proceedings of the 2007 northeastern recreation research symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherie LeBlanc; Christine, comps. Vogt

    2008-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2007 northeastern recreation research symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and gender, recreation resource allocation, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, tourism impacts, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure...

  15. Proceedings of the 2008 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. Klenosky; Cherie LeBlanc Fisher; eds.

    2009-01-01

    Contains articles and posters presented at the 2008 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium. Contents cover tourism marketing, fish and wildlife, place meaning, leisure and gender, recreation resource allocation, nature-based tourism, methods, leisure motives, outdoor recreation management, tourism impacts, outdoor recreation among specific populations, leisure...

  16. Chautauqua National Wildlife Refuge : Recreation Managememt Plan

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This plans covers the recreation management and development strategies for Chautauqua National Wildlife Refuge. Plan also covers recommendations and costs.

  17. EAARL Topography - Gateway National Recreation Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A bare earth elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model or DEM) of Gateway National Recreation Area was produced from remotely-sensed,...

  18. National Marine Recreational Fishing Expenditure Survey 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Marine recreational fishing is a popular pastime across the United States that generates significant economic impacts to both local economies and to the nation. In...

  19. National Marine Recreational Fishing Expenditure Survey 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Marine recreational fishing is a popular pastime across the United States that generates significant economic impacts to both local economies and to the nation. In...

  20. 32 CFR 552.166 - Recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... below. (2) Exception 1: DoD ID card holders enroute to or using DPCA recreational areas listed in appendix A to this subpart need no permit other than the ID card. However, travel to and from DPCA areas...

  1. EAARL Topography - Gateway National Recreation Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A bare earth elevation map (also known as a Digital Elevation Model or DEM) of Gateway National Recreation Area was produced from remotely-sensed,...

  2. Methodology of recreation in the structure of educational space.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaytzev V.P.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the methodological aspects of health, healthy lifestyle and recreation, touching students in higher educational establishments. The historical moments of recreation and concept definition of recreation measures are presented. Certain descriptions of kinds and functions of recreation are given, and also recreation system, recreation districting, placing and correlation of objects of active rest. In the leadthrough of recreation measures occupies the desire of students and high professional level of doctors as no less important factor, occupation therapist, instructors, methodists of medical physical culture and cultural and educational workers. Presented problems were the purpose of researches and supervisions of scientists, teachers and doctors from Ukraine and Poland.

  3. Sea of Scenarios: Reducing Uncertainties in Methane Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.; Baum, E.

    2010-12-01

    Climate-chemistry model experiments for the 21st century have relied almost exclusively on a small set of unexamined methane (and other) emission projections from economics-based models. Over the past decade, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provided baseline and mitigation methane scenarios. The SRES family of projections for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) encompassed multiple economic, demographic, and environmental assumptions quantified by several models. In contrast to both of these efforts, plans for IPCC5 include additional scenario development consistent with end-of-century forcings ranging from 2.6 to 8.5W/m2. The largely black-box nature of emission projections used in climate-chemistry experiments and policy analyses has received little attention despite the substantial influence these inputs can exert. This lack of transparency makes assessing the likelihood, or even the plausibility, of projected emissions difficult, contributes to uncertainties in climate simulations, and leaves policy discussions lacking the practical understanding needed to decide on mitigation strategies. We report on analysis of multiple baseline and mitigation methane projections, including our own new ones, to assess the plausibility of underlying assumptions and data. We propose that this analysis can reduce uncertainties in climate predictions by restricting, not enlarging, the suite of methane scenarios to those likely to occur.

  4. Region Tourist and Recreation Complex Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizaveta Oyusovna Tappaskhanova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of the research is the tourist and recreation complex of Kabardino-Balkar Republic. The purpose of the work is to provide solutions to problems of the republic tourist and recreation complex development. The results obtained from the study showed that in spite of the fact that in the region’s development certain positive steps are taken, according to the indicators of the tourism and recreation development, the region has not reach the level of the 1990th yet, the possibilities of this major sector of the republic economy remain not demanded. It is highlighted, that the most important factor in the tourist and recreation complex development is its infrastructure condition. It is recommended to use the model of the infrastructure management aimed at providing its effective functioning and development due to formation of interaction system at every power level through a network of the centers of the tourist and recreation complex development. In the article, the need for the use of the innovative approaches for the republic tourist and recreation complex development in the particular development of the new tourist directions are also found. For the purpose to improve the professional training of personnel for the tourism and recreation sphere, the need for a transition to multilevel training of personnel is proved. The main directions of the republic image development on the basis of designing and implementing of the regional program of its image development as the tourist territory and creation of the tourist information center are defined. Realization of all these problems allows to develop a highly effective and competitive tourist and recreation complex in Kabardino-Balkaria.

  5. Stereotyping to infer group membership creates plausible deniability for prejudice-based aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, William T L; Devine, Patricia G

    2014-02-01

    In the present study, participants administered painful electric shocks to an unseen male opponent who was either explicitly labeled as gay or stereotypically implied to be gay. Identifying the opponent with a gay-stereotypic attribute produced a situation in which the target's group status was privately inferred but plausibly deniable to others. To test the plausible deniability hypothesis, we examined aggression levels as a function of internal (personal) and external (social) motivation to respond without prejudice. Whether plausible deniability was present or absent, participants high in internal motivation aggressed at low levels, and participants low in both internal and external motivation aggressed at high levels. The behavior of participants low in internal and high in external motivation, however, depended on experimental condition. They aggressed at low levels when observers could plausibly attribute their behavior to prejudice and aggressed at high levels when the situation granted plausible deniability. This work has implications for both obstacles to and potential avenues for prejudice-reduction efforts.

  6. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  8. Inference and Plausible Reasoning in a Natural Language Understanding System Based on Object-Oriented Semantics

    CERN Document Server

    Ostapov, Yuriy

    2012-01-01

    Algorithms of inference in a computer system oriented to input and semantic processing of text information are presented. Such inference is necessary for logical questions when the direct comparison of objects from a question and database can not give a result. The following classes of problems are considered: a check of hypotheses for persons and non-typical actions, the determination of persons and circumstances for non-typical actions, planning actions, the determination of event cause and state of persons. To form an answer both deduction and plausible reasoning are used. As a knowledge domain under consideration is social behavior of persons, plausible reasoning is based on laws of social psychology. Proposed algorithms of inference and plausible reasoning can be realized in computer systems closely connected with text processing (criminology, operation of business, medicine, document systems).

  9. Biologically plausible and evidence-based risk intervals in immunization safety research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowhani-Rahbar, Ali; Klein, Nicola P; Dekker, Cornelia L; Edwards, Kathryn M; Marchant, Colin D; Vellozzi, Claudia; Fireman, Bruce; Sejvar, James J; Halsey, Neal A; Baxter, Roger

    2012-12-17

    In immunization safety research, individuals are considered at risk for the development of certain adverse events following immunization (AEFI) within a specific period of time referred to as the risk interval. These intervals should ideally be determined based on biologic plausibility considering features of the AEFI, presumed or known pathologic mechanism, and the vaccine. Misspecification of the length and timing of these intervals may result in introducing bias in epidemiologic and clinical studies of immunization safety. To date, little work has been done to formally assess and determine biologically plausible and evidence-based risk intervals in immunization safety research. In this report, we present a systematic process to define biologically plausible and evidence-based risk interval estimates for two specific AEFIs, febrile seizures and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis. In addition, we review methodologic issues related to the determination of risk intervals for consideration in future studies of immunization safety.

  10. The semiosis of prayer and the creation of plausible fictional worlds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Peter Södergård

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Prayer and incantation can perhaps be said to be 'mechanisms' that promise that lack will be liquidated and that there is an unlimited signator, a father, or some other metaphysical creature, standing behind and legitimizing the discourse. A way of communicating with the Unlimited that is privileged by an interpretive community that read the prayers aloud and enacted the magical stage-scripts. These highly overlapping categories function as one of the most common subforms of religious discourse for the creation, actualization and maintenance of plausible fictional worlds. They are liminal and transitional mechanisms that manipulate an empirical reader to phase-shift from an actual world to a plausible, by being inscribed in a possible and fictional world, thus creating a model reader, that perceives and acts according to the plausible world outlined by a given interpretive community, and that hears god talking in voces magicae and in god-speaking silence.

  11. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Management Question H1: Where are high-use recreation sites, developments, roads, infrastructure or areas of intensive recreation use located (including boating)?

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows areas of high-use recreation, including recreation sites compiled from USFS and BLM, recreation areas (including OHV areas), water-based recreation...

  12. Modeling large-scale winter recreation terrain selection with implications for recreation management and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucretia E. Olson; John R. Squires; Elizabeth K. Roberts; Aubrey D. Miller; Jacob S. Ivan; Mark Hebblewhite

    2017-01-01

    Winter recreation is a rapidly growing activity, and advances in technology make it possible for increasing numbers of people to access remote backcountry terrain. Increased winter recreation may lead to more frequent conflict between recreationists, as well as greater potential disturbance to wildlife. To better understand the environmental characteristics favored by...

  13. Recreation studied from above. Airphoto interpretation as input into land evaluaion for recreation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, van der D.

    1992-01-01

    Recreation and tourism are of growing importance not only in the industrialized part of the world, but also In developing countries. Remote sensing and in particular airphoto interpretation can be used in several ways as input into land evaluation for recreation and tourism. An inventory of recreati

  14. CHARACTERISTICS OF SPORTS RECREATIONAL TOURISM IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjen Jovović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Basic for realization of tourist movements lays in meeting cultural and recreational needs of potential customers. If we know that largest number of tourists represents part of recreational ones, than is not hard to realize how large potential lays in that number of potential guests. On this fact should be built strategy of movement of tourist offer of Montenegro for it extreme potentials on which can be founded concrete project. In this work are given basic assumptions for development of sport recreational shapes of tourism with stress to natural potentials that directly determine shape of sport recreational activities that represent basis of tourist offer. Offer should be created in that way that it is adapted to wide segment of recreational guests and not professional sportsmen, although they also should not be underestimated but one should know that in order to create conditions for arrival of sports professionals offer has to be completely different and more specialized that requires creating of conditions of existence of highly developed sports infrastructure, while for amateurs a lot can be done in “system of improvising”, satisfying basic criteria – recreation in conditions of untouched and well preserved nature with securing maximal level of security and protection of guests, in order to prevent possible unwilling consequences that can lead to injury of guests and for development and realization of such project one need a much less funds than is building of facilities that should meet standards of professional sportsmen. The aim is to create good offer at good infrastructure, logistics and with good equipment with securing maximal security, adaptation to various wishes of guests, taking in consideration their structure is conditioned by age, health condition, physical fitness as personal wishes toward sports and recreational activities.

  15. Watershed scale environmental sustainability analysis of biofuel production in changing land use and climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    RAJ, C.; Chaubey, I.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Brouder, S. M.; Volenec, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the grand challenges in meeting the US biofuel goal is producing large quantities of cellulosic biofeedstock materials for the production of biofuels in an environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. The possible land use and land management practice changes induce concerns over the environmental impacts of these bioenergy crop production scenarios both in terms of water availability and water quality, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. This study aims to evaluate environmental sustainability of various plausible land and crop management scenarios for biofuel production under changing climate scenarios for a Midwest US watershed. The study considers twelve environmental sustainability indicators related hydrology and water quality with thirteen plausible biofuels scenarios in the watershed under nine climate change scenarios. The land use change scenarios for evaluation includes, (1) bioenergy crops in highly erodible soils (3) bioenergy crops in low row crop productive fields (marginal lands); (3) bioenergy crops in pasture and range land use areas and (4) combinations of these scenarios. Future climate data bias corrected and downscaled to daily values from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used in this study. The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate bioenergy crops growth, hydrology and water quality. The watershed scale sustainability analysis was done in Wildcat Creek basin, which is located in North-Central Indiana, USA.

  16. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  17. Scenarios Creation and Use in the Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA), conducted 2004-2009, used a scenarios-based approach to reveal the complexity of future Arctic marine navigation and to develop a set of plausible futures. The initial task was to use experts and stakeholders in brainstorming sessions to identify the key drivers and uncertainties for Arctic marine navigation. AMSA scenario participants identified 120 driving forces or factors that may influence future levels of marine activity. This effort illustrated the broad, global connections that can impact future use of the Arctic Ocean. Two primary factors were selected to anchor, as axes of uncertainty, the scenarios matrix: resources and trade (the level of demand for Arctic natural resources and trade); and, governance (the degree of relative stability of rules and standards for marine use both within the Arctic and internationally). Four scenarios were created by crossing the two primary drivers: a Polar Lows scenario (low demand and unstable governance); an Arctic Race scenario (high demand and unstable governance); a Polar Preserve scenario (low demand and stable governance); and, an Arctic Saga scenario (high demand and stable governance). The AMSA scenarios effort proved to be an effective and powerful way to communicate to the Arctic Council diplomats, Arctic indigenous peoples, maritime stakeholders and many other actors in the global community the complexities influencing the future of Arctic shipping and marine operations. The scenarios approach facilitated unconstrained thinking and identified the many plausible linkages of the Arctic to the global economic system. The AMSA scenarios work was influential in the Arctic ministers' approval of the framework set of AMSA recommendations that are being implemented today to enhance Arctic marine safety and environmental protection.

  18. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  19. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence from Word Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

  20. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence from Word Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

  1. Plausible Explanation of Quantization of Intrinsic Redshift from Hall Effect and Weyl Quantization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarandache F.

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Using phion condensate model as described by Moffat [1], we consider a plausible explanation of (Tifft intrinsic redshift quantization as described by Bell [6] as result of Hall effect in rotating frame. We also discuss another alternative to explain redshift quantization from the viewpoint of Weyl quantization, which could yield Bohr- Sommerfeld quantization.

  2. “合情推理”辨析%Analysis of Plausible Reasoning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    连四清; 方运加

    2012-01-01

    波利亚的“合情推理”模式引进我国数学课程标准后,就成了我国数学教育研究的关键词。然而,“合情推理”的科学性尚需考证:(1)它的中文意义不明确;(2)它不满足推理模式的客观性要求,存在明显的缺陷;(3)过分强调“合情推理模式”则是过分强调归纳推理和演绎推理的区别,容易割裂它们之间的关系。%After the model of "plausible inference" being introduced into the mathematics curriculum standards, it became a key word of the research on mathematics education in China. However, there are doubts on whether it is scientific. (1) Chinese meaning of plausible inference is ambiguous. (2) The plausible inference can not meet the objective requirement of the reasoning, which has obvious defects. (3) Overemphasizing the model of plausible inference would overemphasize the difference between deductive inference and inductive inference, and would dispart them.

  3. ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barklow, T; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision...

  4. Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Sterle, Kelley; Simpson, Karen; Singletary, Loretta; Fitzgerald, Kelsey; McCarthy, Maureen

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

  5. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  6. From bone to plausible bipedal locomotion. Part II: Complete motion synthesis for bipedal primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolas, Guillaume; Multon, Franck; Berillon, Gilles

    2009-05-29

    This paper addresses the problem of synthesizing plausible bipedal locomotion according to 3D anatomical reconstruction and general hypotheses on human motion control strategies. In a previous paper [Nicolas, G., Multon, F., Berillon, G., Marchal, F., 2007. From bone to plausible bipedal locomotion using inverse kinematics. Journal of Biomechanics 40 (5) 1048-1057], we have validated a method based on using inverse kinematics to obtain plausible lower-limb motions knowing the trajectory of the ankle. In this paper, we propose a more general approach that also involves computing a plausible trajectory of the ankles for a given skeleton. The inputs are the anatomical descriptions of the bipedal species, imposed footprints and a rest posture. This process is based on optimizing a reference ankle trajectory until a set of criteria is minimized. This optimization loop is based on the assumption that a plausible motion is supposed to have little internal mechanical work and should be as less jerky as possible. For each tested ankle trajectory, inverse kinematics is used to compute a lower-body motion that enables us to compute the resulting mechanical work and jerk. This method was tested on a set of modern humans (male and female, with various anthropometric properties). We show that the results obtained with this method are close to experimental data for most of the subjects. We also demonstrate that the method is not sensitive to the choice of the reference ankle trajectory; any ankle trajectory leads to very similar result. We finally apply the method to a skeleton of Pan paniscus (Bonobo), and compare the resulting motion to those described by zoologists.

  7. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  8. Parks, recreation, and public health collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Judy

    2008-12-03

    The primary goal of many park and recreation agencies is to provide resources and programs that improve quality of life for the community. Increasing physical activity is one aspect of this agenda. Promoting physical activity is a public health goal; however, increasing population-level physical activity will require access to places for physical activity (e.g. parks). Practitioners and policy makers need more information to document the roles that parks and recreation facilities play to promote physical activity and contribute to public health. A working group of approximately 20 professionals experienced in data collection came together to discuss the needs for better surveillance and measurement instruments in the fields of parks, recreation, and public health. The working group made two major recommendations: (1) the need for collaborative research and data sharing, and (2) the need for surveillance measures to demonstrate the amount of health-related physical activity acquired in the park setting.

  9. Introducing a method for mapping recreational experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindholst, Andrej Christian; Dempsey, Nicola; Burton, Mel

    2013-01-01

    The provision of recreational opportunities forms an important and long-standing urban planning and management objective. However, considering a range of experiences encountered when in such spaces currently does not form part of existing open space assessment tools in the UK. In this paper, ‘rec......-mapping’, an innovative method of analysing and mapping positive recreational experiences in urban green spaces is explored and piloted within the UK planning context. Originating in the Nordic countries, this on-site method can provide urban planners and designers with data about the extent to which specific green...... spaces provide and support a range of recreational experiences. The exploration reported here is based on a short review of the methods background and an application in two test sites in Sheffield, South Yorkshire in early summer 2010. This paper critically appraises the application of rec...

  10. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  11. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  12. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  13. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  14. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    OpenAIRE

    Žiga Malek; Luc Boerboom

    2015-01-01

    Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientsts in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeing future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying fut...

  15. DEMFIL - treatment of stormwater for recreational use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørud, Mai; Nielsen, Katrine; Skau Damskier, Sophie;

    2013-01-01

    Decoupling of stormwater (road runoff) in a residential area has been implemented in order to reduce flooding and to increase the hydraulic capacity of a lake with a high recreational value. The object here was to evaluate a disc filter technology in combination with a green polymer for flocculat......Decoupling of stormwater (road runoff) in a residential area has been implemented in order to reduce flooding and to increase the hydraulic capacity of a lake with a high recreational value. The object here was to evaluate a disc filter technology in combination with a green polymer...

  16. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  17. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  18. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  19. Data Collection and Simulation of Ecological Habitat and Recreational Habitat in the Shenandoah River, Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstolic, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents updates to methods, describes additional data collected, documents modeling results, and discusses implications from an updated habitat-flow model that can be used to predict ecological habitat for fish and recreational habitat for canoeing on the main stem Shenandoah River in Virginia. Given a 76-percent increase in population predictions for 2040 over 1995 records, increased water-withdrawal scenarios were evaluated to determine the effects on habitat and recreation in the Shenandoah River. Projected water demands for 2040 vary by watershed: the North Fork Shenandoah River shows a 55.9-percent increase, the South Fork Shenandoah River shows a 46.5-percent increase, and the main stem Shenandoah River shows a 52-percent increase; most localities are projected to approach the total permitted surface-water and groundwater withdrawals values by 2040, and a few localities are projected to exceed these values.

  20. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  1. Fort Niobrara National Wildlife Refuge River Recreation Management Plan

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The purpose of the Fort Niobrara National Wildlife Refuge River Recreation Management Plan is to provide guidance and direction for management of recreational...

  2. Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Recreation and Leisure Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Emilyn

    1988-01-01

    This article outlines the process of systematic entrepreneurial innovation as a tool for recreation industry managers seeking increased productivity. Eight sources of innovation, with recreation related examples, are described. A guide to implementing the process is included. (IAH)

  3. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  4. Eye Health in Sports and Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Recreation Eye Injuries at Work Fireworks Eye Safety Sports Eye Injuries by the Numbers — Infographic Five Steps to Safer ... protection. High-Risk Sports For all age groups, sports-related eye injuries occur most frequently in baseball, basketball and racquet ...

  5. Women's Recreational Surfing: A Patronising Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olive, Rebecca; McCuaig, Louise; Phillips, Murray G.

    2015-01-01

    Research analysing the operation of power within sport and physical activity has exposed the marginalisation and exclusion of women's sport in explicit and institutionalised ways. However, for women in recreational and alternative physical activities like surfing, sporting experiences lie outside institutionalised structures, thus requiring…

  6. Re-Creating Pablo Picasso's "Guernica"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daseler, Jack C.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the teachers at the author's school completed a group project with their eighth-graders in which they recreated a mural version of the famous painting by Pablo Picasso, "Guernica." This activity was aimed at: (1) studying the rise of Fascism in Spain and Germany during the Spanish Civil War prior to World War II; (2) learning…

  7. Star Trek as Recreational Reading for Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espeland, Mecedes

    A study investigated the appropriateness of the "Star Trek" book series for use as recreational reading material for elementary school children. The 12 books were adapted from the television series by James Blish. Appropriateness was determined by evaluating the quality and the readability levels of the books. Quality was ascertained by examining…

  8. Aquatic Therapy. Making Waves in Therapeutic Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broach, Ellen; Dattilo, John

    1996-01-01

    Therapeutic recreation professionals often use aquatic therapy to improve physiological and psychological functioning, and they have reported improvements for people with many different types of disabilities. The paper discusses aquatic therapy methods, water as a therapeutic environment, professional training and development, and lifestyle…

  9. Re-creation of Chinese Traditional Clothing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘瑜; 张祖芳

    2003-01-01

    On the basis of analysis on both the typical characteristics of Chinese traditional clothing and trendy fashion on present market that is inspired from it,this paper illustrates several re-creation methods of Chinese traditional clothing.These suggestions would push this oriental traditional clothing to a new high in world fashion field and adopted by more and more common people.

  10. 77 FR 36250 - Recreation Resource Advisory Committees

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-18

    ... Recreation, Local Environmental, State Tourism, Local Government, and Tribal. The public is invited to submit.... Non-motorized outfitters and guides; and c. Local environmental groups. 3. Three persons, as follows: a. A State tourism official to represent the State; b. A person who represents affected Indian...

  11. Infusing JUST Design in Campus Recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staeger-Wilson, Katheryne; Sampson, Douglas H.

    2012-01-01

    This practice brief highlights the collaborative work among a disability resource professional, a university architect, and students with disabilities to create a campus recreation center with universal design features. This partnership serves to illustrate that building to minimum compliance standards does not necessarily remove barriers to…

  12. Re-Creating Pablo Picasso's "Guernica"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daseler, Jack C.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, the teachers at the author's school completed a group project with their eighth-graders in which they recreated a mural version of the famous painting by Pablo Picasso, "Guernica." This activity was aimed at: (1) studying the rise of Fascism in Spain and Germany during the Spanish Civil War prior to World War II; (2) learning…

  13. Conditionally pathogenic fungi in recreational waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matavulj Milan N.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The improvement of health and life conditions depends on various environmental factors. The exposition to organic and inorganic pollutants, as well as to the broad spectar of microorganisms is one of these factors. Medically important fungi have been increasing their number recently especially in urban and in recreational zones. Some of them, first of all molds and yeasts, are involved by different means in causing more or less serious diseases of man and animals. Frequency of alergic symptoms and human mycotic lesions increased significantly during last decades. Such phenomena have provoked more scientific attention recently. According to the available literature data, micro-fungi, causing mycoses and "environmental" fungi too could be considered as an important factor of health risk, being neglected and underestimated so far, especially in analyses of safe use of recreational waters and surrounding areas, among them swimming pools, river and sea beaches. On the basis of such statement there arises conclusion that water and ground of recreational zones could serve as vectors in transmission pathways of potentially or conditionally pathogenic fungi, being dangerous especially for immunocompromised individuals, which suggests inclusion of qualitative and quantitative composition of fungal community into a continual monitoring of hygienic status of recreational zones.

  14. Aquatic Therapy. Making Waves in Therapeutic Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broach, Ellen; Dattilo, John

    1996-01-01

    Therapeutic recreation professionals often use aquatic therapy to improve physiological and psychological functioning, and they have reported improvements for people with many different types of disabilities. The paper discusses aquatic therapy methods, water as a therapeutic environment, professional training and development, and lifestyle…

  15. A virtue analysis of recreational marijuana use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Ezra; Austriaco, Nicanor

    2016-05-01

    Several empirical studies suggest that recreational marijuana is popularly perceived as an essentially harmless rite of passage that ends as young people settle into their careers and their adult intimate relationships. Is this perception accurate? To answer this question, we evaluate the morality of recreational marijuana use from a virtue perspective guided by the theological synthesis of St. Thomas Aquinas. Since the medical data reveals that recreational marijuana use is detrimental to the well-being of the user, we conclude that it is a vicious activity, an instance of the vice of intoxication, and as such would be morally illicit. In contrast to its medical use, the recreational use of marijuana cannot be justified for at least three reasons. First, as scientists have amply documented, it harms the organic functioning of the human body. Second, it impedes our ability to reason and in so doing does harm to us. Finally, it has lasting detrimental effects on the user and his neighbor, even when it occurs in a casual setting. Intoxication is always contrary to the integral good of the person. Thus, the use of marijuana is never warranted even for good, non-medical reasons.

  16. Biologically plausible learning in recurrent neural networks reproduces neural dynamics observed during cognitive tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miconi, Thomas

    2017-02-23

    Neural activity during cognitive tasks exhibits complex dynamics that flexibly encode task-relevant variables. Chaotic recurrent networks, which spontaneously generate rich dynamics, have been proposed as a model of cortical computation during cognitive tasks. However, existing methods for training these networks are either biologically implausible, and/or require a continuous, real-time error signal to guide learning. Here we show that a biologically plausible learning rule can train such recurrent networks, guided solely by delayed, phasic rewards at the end of each trial. Networks endowed with this learning rule can successfully learn nontrivial tasks requiring flexible (context-dependent) associations, memory maintenance, nonlinear mixed selectivities, and coordination among multiple outputs. The resulting networks replicate complex dynamics previously observed in animal cortex, such as dynamic encoding of task features and selective integration of sensory inputs. We conclude that recurrent neural networks offer a plausible model of cortical dynamics during both learning and performance of flexible behavior.

  17. Identifying plausible genetic models based on association and linkage results: application to type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Weihua; Boehnke, Michael; Pluzhnikov, Anna; Cox, Nancy J; Scott, Laura J

    2012-12-01

    When planning resequencing studies for complex diseases, previous association and linkage studies can constrain the range of plausible genetic models for a given locus. Here, we explore the combinations of causal risk allele frequency (RAFC ) and genotype relative risk (GRRC ) consistent with no or limited evidence for affected sibling pair (ASP) linkage and strong evidence for case-control association. We find that significant evidence for case-control association combined with no or moderate evidence for ASP linkage can define a lower bound for the plausible RAFC . Using data from large type 2 diabetes (T2D) linkage and genome-wide association study meta-analyses, we find that under reasonable model assumptions, 23 of 36 autosomal T2D risk loci are unlikely to be due to causal variants with combined RAFC < 0.005, and four of the 23 are unlikely to be due to causal variants with combined RAFC < 0.05.

  18. Acquiring Plausible Predications from MEDLINE by Clustering MeSH Annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miñarro-Giménez, Jose Antonio; Kreuzthaler, Markus; Bernhardt-Melischnig, Johannes; Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The massive accumulation of biomedical knowledge is reflected by the growth of the literature database MEDLINE with over 23 million bibliographic records. All records are manually indexed by MeSH descriptors, many of them refined by MeSH subheadings. We use subheading information to cluster types of MeSH descriptor co-occurrences in MEDLINE by processing co-occurrence information provided by the UMLS. The goal is to infer plausible predicates to each resulting cluster. In an initial experiment this was done by grouping disease-pharmacologic substance co-occurrences into six clusters. Then, a domain expert manually performed the assignment of meaningful predicates to the clusters. The mean accuracy of the best ten generated biomedical facts of each cluster was 85%. This result supports the evidence of the potential of MeSH subheadings for extracting plausible medical predications from MEDLINE.

  19. Spelling in oral deaf and hearing dyslexic children: A comparison of phonologically plausible errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, P; Shergold, Z; Kyle, F E; Herman, R

    2014-11-01

    A written single word spelling to dictation test and a single word reading test were given to 68 severe-profoundly oral deaf 10-11-year-old children and 20 hearing children with a diagnosis of dyslexia. The literacy scores of the deaf children and the hearing children with dyslexia were lower than expected for children of their age and did not differ from each other. Three quarters of the spelling errors of hearing children with dyslexia compared with just over half the errors of the oral deaf group were phonologically plausible. Expressive vocabulary and speech intelligibility predicted the percentage of phonologically plausible errors in the deaf group only. Implications of findings for the phonological decoding self-teaching model and for supporting literacy development are discussed.

  20. Of paradox and plausibility: the dynamic of change in medical law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, John

    2014-01-01

    This article develops a model of change in medical law. Drawing on systems theory, it argues that medical law participates in a dynamic of 'deparadoxification' and 'reparadoxification' whereby the underlying contingency of the law is variously concealed through plausible argumentation, or revealed by critical challenge. Medical law is, thus, thoroughly rhetorical. An examination of the development of the law on abortion and on the sterilization of incompetent adults shows that plausibility is achieved through the deployment of substantive common sense and formal stylistic devices. It is undermined where these elements are shown to be arbitrary and constructed. In conclusion, it is argued that the politics of medical law are constituted by this antagonistic process of establishing and challenging provisionally stable normative regimes.

  1. 76 FR 27002 - Information Collection; National Recreation Program Administration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-10

    ... costs of providing specialized services. The FS-2300-47, National Recreation Application is a form used... help cover the higher costs of providing specialized services on National Forest System recreational... Forest Service Information Collection; National Recreation Program Administration AGENCY: Forest...

  2. Managing recreation areas for quality user experiences: a theoretical framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas A. More; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1979-01-01

    The production of opportunities for high-quality visitor experiences is a basic goal of recreation management. Recreation quality can be interpreted using concepts from psychological field theory to relate emotion to the strength of motivation. Applications to on-site management for recreation quality and use regulation are suggested.

  3. Identifying the Computer Competency Levels of Recreation Department Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorba, Erdal

    2011-01-01

    Computer-based and web-based applications are as major instructional tools to increase undergraduates' motivation at school. In the recreation field usage of, computer and the internet based recreational applications has become more prevalent in order to present visual and interactive entertainment activities. Recreation department undergraduates…

  4. Rights of the Disabled to Participate in Recreational Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Freeman, Gina; Gambino, Stephen

    1989-01-01

    The article discusses federal legislation and legal information on rights of physically disabled people to participate in recreational sports. The impact of recreational sports participation for these individuals is discussed, recommending college campuses act as arenas for integrative and adapted sport programing. Goals for recreational sports…

  5. The Future of Outdoor Recreation. What the Trends Tell Us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Gina

    1986-01-01

    The author looked at trend data presented at the 1985 National Outdoor Recreation Trends Symposium and synthesized the results to offer insights into the future of outdoor recreation. Discussed are social, activity, private sector recreational, economic, tourism, and policy trends. (MT)

  6. Recreation as a scientific discipline and its historical aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaycev V.P.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of work - to show an importance of recreation measures for forming, renewal, strengthening and saving of students' health. The analysis of recreation measures is resulted in educational space of higher educational establishment. Concept methodology of recreation and physical recreation is expounded for the students of higher educational establishments: types of recreation and its function, recreational system, recreational districting and correlation of recreational buildings in surrounding space. The modern problems of recreation and physical recreation are reflected. It is marked that important factors in successful recreation activity it is been: level of educational preparation of workers; professionalism of doctors, doctors rehabilitation, instructors and methodists of physical culture; presence of the special territorial areas; terms for the leadthrough of employments and in a civilized manner-entertaining measures. It is marked that recreation is passive and active rest in a complex with other health measures out of production, educational, scientific and to other activity. He is directed on forming, renewal, strengthening and saving of health of a man, and also bringing him satisfaction and pleasure from these measures.

  7. 36 CFR 7.69 - Ross Lake National Recreation Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Ross Lake National Recreation... INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.69 Ross Lake National Recreation Area... snowmobiles the following locations within the Ross Lake National Recreation Area: (1) State Highway 20,...

  8. Regional demand and supply projections for outdoor recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald B. K. English; Carter J. Betz; J. Mark Young; John C. Bergstrom; H. Ken Cordell

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops regional recreation supply and demand projections, by combining coefficients from the national 1989 RPA Assessment models with regional regressor values. Regional recreation opportunity estimates also are developed, based on regional travel behavior. Results show important regional variations in projections of recreation opportunities, trip supply,...

  9. Recreational Reading of International Students in Academic Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bordonaro, Karen

    2011-01-01

    Recreational reading as a method of language learning has been a focus of investigation in second language education. This article considers recreational reading through the additional perspective of academic librarianship. Its purpose is to discover if recreational reading is a topic that lends itself to research through both perspectives. This…

  10. The Future of Outdoor Recreation. What the Trends Tell Us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Gina

    1986-01-01

    The author looked at trend data presented at the 1985 National Outdoor Recreation Trends Symposium and synthesized the results to offer insights into the future of outdoor recreation. Discussed are social, activity, private sector recreational, economic, tourism, and policy trends. (MT)

  11. Proceedings of the 2001 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon. Comp, ed. Todd

    2002-01-01

    Contains 71 articles presented at the 2001 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium which seeks to foster quality information exchange between recreation, tourism, and resource managers and researchers throughout the Northeast. The forum provides opportunities for recreation and tourism research managers from different agencies, state, and government levels, as well...

  12. MDCT findings in sports and recreational accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bensch, Frank V; Koivikko, Mika P; Koskinen, Seppo K (Dept. of Radiology, Toeoeloe Hospital, Helsinki (Finland)), email: frank.bensch@hus.fi

    2011-12-15

    Background. Sports and recreational accidents involving critical areas of the body occur commonly in the general population. Reports on their demographics and recommendations for screening procedures are, however, few. Purpose. To assess injuries of the craniofacial area, spine, and torso resulting from sports and recreational accidents with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as primary imaging method in a Level I trauma center. Material and Methods. All emergency room CT requests over a time span of 105 months were reviewed retrospectively for trauma mechanism and injury. Patients were identified using an electronic picture archiving and communications system (PACS), and MDCT studies interpreted by two radiologists independently. Results. Of a total of 5898 patients, 492 patients (301 boys/men, 191 girls/women, age range 2-76 years, mean 33.5 years, median 29.5 years) with sports or recreational accidents emerged. A total of 102 traumatic findings were diagnosed, thereof 72 (71%) serious. The three most commonly encountered serious injuries were intracranial injury, fractures of facial bones, and vertebral injuries. The three most common injury mechanisms were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. Patients from recreational activities were on average significantly younger (29.2 years) than those from sports accidents (36.9 years; P < 0.001). Only age groups <21 years and 41-50 years differed in injury severity from the other age groups (P = 0.004 and P = 0.063, respectively). Of all trauma mechanisms, only bicycling had a significantly increased risk of injury (P < 0.001). Conclusion. Injuries in sports and recreational accidents presented with an overall incidence of 21%, of which 71% are serious. The most common mechanisms of injury were bicycling, horseback riding, and team ball sports. The largest incidence of serious injury involved bicycling. Because of the high probability of a serious injury and the high energies that are often involved

  13. On the plausible association between environmental conditions and human eye damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feretis, Elias; Theodorakopoulos, Panagiotis; Varotsos, Costas; Efstathiou, Maria; Tzanis, Christos; Xirou, Tzina; Alexandridou, Nancy; Aggelou, Michael

    2002-01-01

    The increase in solar ultraviolet radiation can have various direct and indirect effects on human health, like the incidence of ocular damage. Data of eye damage in residents of three suburban regions in Greece and in two groups of monks/nuns and fishermen are examined here. The statistics performed on these data provides new information about the plausible association between increased levels of solar ultraviolet radiation, air-pollution at ground level, and the development of ocular defects.

  14. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  15. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  16. What happened (and what didn't): Discourse constraints on encoding of plausible alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraundorf, Scott H; Benjamin, Aaron S; Watson, Duane G

    2013-10-01

    Three experiments investigated how font emphasis influences reading and remembering discourse. Although past work suggests that contrastive pitch contours benefit memory by promoting encoding of salient alternatives, it is unclear both whether this effect generalizes to other forms of linguistic prominence and how the set of alternatives is constrained. Participants read discourses in which some true propositions had salient alternatives (e.g., British scientists found the endangered monkey when the discourse also mentioned French scientists) and completed a recognition memory test. In Experiments 1 and 2, font emphasis in the initial presentation increased participants' ability to later reject false statements about salient alternatives but not about unmentioned items (e.g., Portuguese scientists). In Experiment 3, font emphasis helped reject false statements about plausible alternatives, but not about less plausible alternatives that were nevertheless established in the discourse. These results suggest readers encode a narrow set of only those alternatives plausible in the particular discourse. They also indicate that multiple manipulations of linguistic prominence, not just prosody, can lead to consideration of alternatives.

  17. A biologically plausible model of time-scale invariant interval timing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Rita; Ledberg, Anders

    2010-02-01

    The temporal durations between events often exert a strong influence over behavior. The details of this influence have been extensively characterized in behavioral experiments in different animal species. A remarkable feature of the data collected in these experiments is that they are often time-scale invariant. This means that response measurements obtained under intervals of different durations coincide when plotted as functions of relative time. Here we describe a biologically plausible model of an interval timing device and show that it is consistent with time-scale invariant behavior over a substantial range of interval durations. The model consists of a set of bistable units that switch from one state to the other at random times. We first use an abstract formulation of the model to derive exact expressions for some key quantities and to demonstrate time-scale invariance for any range of interval durations. We then show how the model could be implemented in the nervous system through a generic and biologically plausible mechanism. In particular, we show that any system that can display noise-driven transitions from one stable state to another can be used to implement the timing device. Our work demonstrates that a biologically plausible model can qualitatively account for a large body of data and thus provides a link between the biology and behavior of interval timing.

  18. Operational assessment of intermodality future in Belgium: Best-case scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Tawfik, Christine Maher Fouad; Limbourg, Sabine

    2017-01-01

    From the perspective of stimulating intermodal transport as an ecological and economically promising freight transport scheme in the EU, this paper is devoted to assess its future position with respect to crucial and plausible operational factors that were selected a priori. The study is conducted in the context of a best-case scenario development, within a rational and optimal decision making framework. We address this goal by designing a realistic medium-term network design and pricing mode...

  19. Recent advances in recreation ecology and the implications of different relationships between recreation use and ecological impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher A. Monz; Catherine M. Pickering; Wade L. Hadwen

    2013-01-01

    Recreation ecology - the study of the environmental consequences of outdoor recreation/nature-based tourism activities and their effective management - is an emerging field of global importance. A primary research generalization in this field, the use-impact relationship, is commonly described as curvilinear, with proportionally more impact from initial recreation/...

  20. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  1. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  2. Assessing the Sensitivity of a Reservoir Management System Under Plausible Assumptions About Future Climate Over Seasons to Decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, M. N.; Brown, C. M.; Baroang, K. M.; Kaheil, Y. H.

    2011-12-01

    We illustrate an analysis procedure that explores the robustness and overall productivity of a reservoir management system under plausible assumptions about climate fluctuation and change. Results are presented based on a stylized version of a multi-use reservoir management model adapted from Angat Dam, Philippines. It represents a modest-sized seasonal storage reservoir in a climate with a pronounced dry season. The reservoir management model focuses on October-March, during which climatological inflow declines due to the arrival of the dry season, and reservoir management becomes critical and challenging. Inflow is assumed to be impacted by climate fluctuations representing interannal variation (white noise), decadal to multidecadal variation (MDV, here represented by a stochastic autoregressive process) and global change (GC), here represented by a systematic linear trend in seasonal inflow total over the simulation period of 2008-2047. Reservoir reliability, and risk of extreme persistent water shortfall, is assessed under different combinations and magnitudes of GC and MDV. We include an illustration of adaptive management, using seasonal forecasts and updated climate normals. A set of seasonal forecast and observed inflow values are generated for 2008-2047 by randomly rearranging the forecast-observed pairs for 1968-2007. Then, trends are imposed on the observed series, with differing assumptions about the extent to which the seasonal forecasts can be expected to track the trend. We consider the framework presented here well-suited to providing insights about managing the climate risks in reservoir operations, providing guidance on expected benefits and risks of different strategies and climate scenarios.

  3. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  4. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  5. Assessment of Recreational Facilities in Federal Capital City, Abuja, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Kanayo Ezeamaka

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abuja Master Plan provided development of adequate Green Areas and other Recreational Facilities within the Federal Capital City (FCC, as part of its sustainability principles and provided for these recreational facilities within each neighborhood (FCDA, 1979. However, there have been several recent foul cries about the negative development of recreational facilities and the abuse of the Master Plan in the FCC.  The motivation for carrying out this study arose from the observation that recreational facilities in Phase 1 of the Federal Capital City Abuja are not clearly developed as intended by the policy makers and thus, the need to identify the recreational facilities in the Phase 1 of FCC and observe their level of development as well as usage. The field survey revealed that the Central Business District and Gazupe have higher numbers of recreational facilities with 45 and 56. While Wuse II (A08 and Wuse II (A07 Districts have lesser recreational facilities with 10 and 17. The field survey further revealed that all the districts in Phase 1 have over 35% cases of land use changes from recreational facilities to other use. The survey shows that over 65% of these recreational facilities are fully developed. The study also shows that just about 11% of the recreational sporting facilities were developed in line with the Abuja Master Plan in Phase 1. The study revealed that recreational facilities in Phase 1 of the FCC, Abuja has not being developed in compliance with the Abuja Master Plan.

  6. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  7. Do recreational activities affect coastal biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Rodrigo; Menci, Cristiano; Sanabria-Fernández, José Antonio; Becerro, Mikel A.

    2016-09-01

    Human activities are largely affecting coastal communities worldwide. Recreational perturbations have been overlooked in comparison to other perturbations, yet they are potential threats to marine biodiversity. They affect coastal communities in different ways, underpinning consistent shifts in fish and invertebrates assemblages. Several sites were sampled subjected to varying effects by recreational fishermen (low and high pressure) and scuba divers (low and high) in an overpopulated Atlantic island. Non-consistent differences in ecological, trophic and functional diversity were found in coastal communities, considering both factors ("diving" and "fishing"). Multivariate analyses only showed significant differences in benthic invertebrates between intensively-dived and non-dived sites. The lack of clear trends may be explained by the depletion of coastal resources in the study area, an extensively-affected island by overfishing.

  8. Impaired inhibitory control in recreational cocaine users.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenza S Colzato

    Full Text Available Chronic use of cocaine is associated with impairment in response inhibition but it is an open question whether and to which degree findings from chronic users generalize to the upcoming type of recreational users. This study compared the ability to inhibit and execute behavioral responses in adult recreational users and in a cocaine-free-matched sample controlled for age, race, gender distribution, level of intelligence, and alcohol consumption. Response inhibition and response execution were measured by a stop-signal paradigm. Results show that users and non users are comparable in terms of response execution but users need significantly more time to inhibit responses to stop-signals than non users. Interestingly, the magnitude of the inhibitory deficit was positively correlated with the individuals lifetime cocaine exposure suggesting that the magnitude of the impairment is proportional to the degree of cocaine consumed.

  9. Lightning injuries in sports and recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Eric M; Howard, Thomas M

    2013-01-01

    The powers of lightning have been worshiped and feared by all known human cultures. While the chance of being struck by lightning is statistically very low, that risk becomes much greater in those who frequently work or play outdoors. Over the past 2 yr, there have been nearly 50 lightning-related deaths reported within the United States, with a majority of them associated with outdoor recreational activities. Recent publications primarily have been case studies, review articles, and a discussion of a sixth method of injury. The challenge in reducing lightning-related injuries in organized sports has been addressed well by both the National Athletic Trainers' Association and the National Collegiate Athletic Association in their guidelines on lightning safety. Challenges remain in educating the general population involved in recreational outdoor activities that do not fall under the guidelines of organized sports.

  10. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  11. Perceived Muscle Soreness in Recreational Female Runners

    OpenAIRE

    Burnett, D; Smith, K; Smeltzer, C.; Young, K.; Burns, S

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if rating of perceived exertion correlated with perceived muscle soreness during delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) in female runners. This study examined the pre and post running economy measures and perceived muscle soreness before and after a 30-min downhill run (DHR) at −15% grade and 70% of the subjects predetermined maximum oxygen uptake (VO2 peak). Six female recreational runners (mean age = 24.5) performed level running at 65%, 75%, and 85%...

  12. The terrace like feature in the mid-continental slope region off Trivandrum and a plausible model for India-Madagascar juxtaposition in immediate pre-drift scenario

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Yatheesh, V.; Bhattacharya, G.C.; Mahender, K.

    traced into Madagascar. Journal of Geological Society of India, 19, 144-153. 9 Dissanayake, C.B., Chandrajith, R., 1999. Sri Lanka - Madagascar Gondwana linkage: evidence for a Pan- African mineral belt. Journal of Geology, 107, 223-235. Dyment, J...: implications for east Gondwana correlations. Precambrian Research, 114, 149-175. Menon, R.D., Santosh, M., 1995. A Pan-African gemstone province of East Gondwana. In: Yoshida, M., Santosh, M. (Eds.), India and Antarctica during the Precambrian. Geological...

  13. Understanding Karma Police: The Perceived Plausibility of Noun Compounds as Predicted by Distributional Models of Semantic Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günther, Fritz; Marelli, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Noun compounds, consisting of two nouns (the head and the modifier) that are combined into a single concept, differ in terms of their plausibility: school bus is a more plausible compound than saddle olive. The present study investigates which factors influence the plausibility of attested and novel noun compounds. Distributional Semantic Models (DSMs) are used to obtain formal (vector) representations of word meanings, and compositional methods in DSMs are employed to obtain such representations for noun compounds. From these representations, different plausibility measures are computed. Three of those measures contribute in predicting the plausibility of noun compounds: The relatedness between the meaning of the head noun and the compound (Head Proximity), the relatedness between the meaning of modifier noun and the compound (Modifier Proximity), and the similarity between the head noun and the modifier noun (Constituent Similarity). We find non-linear interactions between Head Proximity and Modifier Proximity, as well as between Modifier Proximity and Constituent Similarity. Furthermore, Constituent Similarity interacts non-linearly with the familiarity with the compound. These results suggest that a compound is perceived as more plausible if it can be categorized as an instance of the category denoted by the head noun, if the contribution of the modifier to the compound meaning is clear but not redundant, and if the constituents are sufficiently similar in cases where this contribution is not clear. Furthermore, compounds are perceived to be more plausible if they are more familiar, but mostly for cases where the relation between the constituents is less clear. PMID:27732599

  14. A Novel Discovery of Growth Process for Ag Nanowires and Plausible Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiejun Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel growth process of silver nanowires was revealed by tracing the morphology evolution of Ag nanostructures fabricated by an improved polyol process. A mixture of Ag nanowires and nanoparticles was obtained with the usage of PVP-K25 (MW = 38,000. The products sampled at different reaction time were studied in detail using UV-visible absorption spectra and transmission electron microscopy (TEM. An interesting phenomenon unknown in the past was observed where Ag nanoparticles undergo an important dissolution-recrystallization process and Ag nanowires are formed at the expense of the preformed Ag nanoparticles. A plausible novel growth mechanism for the silver nanowires was proposed.

  15. ‘One of the Challenges that Can Plausibly Be Raised Against Them’?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Jakob v. H.

    2017-01-01

    International criminal tribunals (ICTs) are epistemic engines in the sense that they find (or claim to find) factual truths about such past events that qualify as genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The value of this kind of knowledge would seem to be beyond dispute. Yet, in general...... in law is intimately connected to ordinary truth. Truth-finding capacity therefore does belong in legitimacy debates as a challenge that can plausibly be raised against them. This, in turn makes it relevant, in future research, to map, analyse and interrelate the various critiques that have been launched...

  16. A biological plausible Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire neuron model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhenzhong; Guo, Lilin; Adjouadi, Malek

    2014-01-01

    This study introduces a new Generalized Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (GLIF) neuron model. Unlike Normal Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (NLIF) models, the leaking resistor in the GLIF model equation is assumed to be variable, and an additional term would have the bias current added to the model equation in order to improve the accuracy. Adjusting the parameters defined for the leaking resistor and bias current, a GLIF model could be accurately matched to any Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) model and be able to reproduce plausible biological neuron behaviors.

  17. Higher Data Quality by Online Data-Entry and Automated Plausibility Checks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietragalla, Barbara; Sigg, Christian; Güsewell, Sabine; Clot, Bernard

    2014-05-01

    Long-term phenological observations are now recognized as important indicators for climate change impact studies. With the increased need for phenological data, there is also an increased need for higher data quality. Since 1951 MeteoSwiss has been operating a national phenological observation network. Currently the network consists of about 150 active stations observing up to 69 different phenophases. An important aim of a running three years project at MeteoSwiss is a further increase of the quality of the collected data. The higher data quality will be achieved by an automated procedure performing plausibility checks on the data and by online data-entry. Further measures such as intensified observer instructions and collection of more detailed metadata also contribute to a high data quality standard. The plausibility checks include the natural order of the phenophases within a species and also between different species (with regard to possible natural deviation). Additionally it will be checked if the observed date differs by less than two standard deviations from the average for this phenophase at the altitude of the station. A value outside of these limits is not necessarily a false value, since occurrences of extreme values will be beyond these limits. Therefore, within this check of the limits, the timing of the season of the respective year will also be taken into account. In case of an implausible value a comparison with other stations of the same region and sea level is proposed. A further possibility of data quality control could be to model the different phenophases statistically and to use this model for estimating the likelihood of observed values. An overall exploratory data analysis is currently performed providing a solid basis to implement the best possible methods for the plausibility checks. Important advantages of online data-entry are the near real-time availability of the data as well as the avoidance of various kinds of typical mistakes

  18. Exploring discrepancies between quantitative validation results and the geomorphic plausibility of statistical landslide susceptibility maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    Empirical models are frequently applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for large areas. Subsequent quantitative validation results are routinely used as the primary criteria to infer the validity and applicability of the final maps or to select one of several models. This study hypothesizes that such direct deductions can be misleading. The main objective was to explore discrepancies between the predictive performance of a landslide susceptibility model and the geomorphic plausibility of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps while a particular emphasis was placed on the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on modelling and validation results. The study was conducted within the Flysch Zone of Lower Austria (1,354 km2) which is known to be highly susceptible to landslides of the slide-type movement. Sixteen susceptibility models were generated by applying two statistical classifiers (logistic regression and generalized additive model) and two machine learning techniques (random forest and support vector machine) separately for two landslide inventories of differing completeness and two predictor sets. The results were validated quantitatively by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with single holdout and spatial cross-validation technique. The heuristic evaluation of the geomorphic plausibility of the final results was supported by findings of an exploratory data analysis, an estimation of odds ratios and an evaluation of the spatial structure of the final maps. The results showed that maps generated by different inventories, classifiers and predictors appeared differently while holdout validation revealed similar high predictive performances. Spatial cross-validation proved useful to expose spatially varying inconsistencies of the modelling results while additionally providing evidence for slightly overfitted machine learning-based models. However, the highest predictive performances were obtained for

  19. A biologically plausible transform for visual recognition that is invariant to translation, scale and rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel eSountsov

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Visual object recognition occurs easily despite differences in position, size, and rotation of the object, but the neural mechanisms responsible for this invariance are not known. We have found a set of transforms that achieve invariance in a neurally plausible way. We find that a transform based on local spatial frequency analysis of oriented segments and on logarithmic mapping, when applied twice in an iterative fashion, produces an output image that is unique to the object and that remains constant as the input image is shifted, scaled or rotated.

  20. [Elderly people's level of participation in social and recreational activities in Barranquilla, Colombia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinillos-Patiño, Yisel; Prieto-Suárez, Edgar; Herazo-Beltrán, Yaneth

    2013-01-01

    Determining elderly people's level of participation in social and recreational activities in Barranquilla, Colombia. This was a descriptive cross-sectional study involving 469 elderly people; a basic activities of daily living scale, which had been adapted to the ongoing activities being carried out in the pertinent scenarios, was used for evaluating their level of participation in social and recreational activities. Bivariate analysis was used for estimating the relationship between level of participation and age-range and coexistence, using OR and χ2 tests. The scale categorized 40.9 % of the subjects as having low participation and only 20.2 % as actively and voluntarily participating in the activities being offered. There was an increased risk of non-participation in social and recreational activities regarding adults being over 80 years of age (OR 3.3: (2.2-4.9) 95 % CI) and those living alone (OR 1.75: (1.09-2.82) 95 % CI). A clear trend towards less participation was shown as aged increased; this is why social isolation becomes a risk factor for this group of people's quality of life. It is recommended that social networks promoting the elderly's health and quality of life should thus be strengthened.

  1. Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

    2013-04-01

    While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W

  2. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  3. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...... into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon....

  4. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  5. A Biomass-based Model to Estimate the Plausibility of Exoplanet Biosignature Gases

    CERN Document Server

    Seager, S; Hu, R

    2013-01-01

    Biosignature gas detection is one of the ultimate future goals for exoplanet atmosphere studies. We have created a framework for linking biosignature gas detectability to biomass estimates, including atmospheric photochemistry and biological thermodynamics. The new framework is intended to liberate predictive atmosphere models from requiring fixed, Earth-like biosignature gas source fluxes. New biosignature gases can be considered with a check that the biomass estimate is physically plausible. We have validated the models on terrestrial production of NO, H2S, CH4, CH3Cl, and DMS. We have applied the models to propose NH3 as a biosignature gas on a "cold Haber World," a planet with a N2-H2 atmosphere, and to demonstrate why gases such as CH3Cl must have too large of a biomass to be a plausible biosignature gas on planets with Earth or early-Earth-like atmospheres orbiting a Sun-like star. To construct the biomass models, we developed a functional classification of biosignature gases, and found that gases (such...

  6. Self-assembly of phosphate amphiphiles in mixtures of prebiotically plausible surfactants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albertsen, A N; Duffy, C D; Sutherland, J D; Monnard, P-A

    2014-06-01

    The spontaneous formation of closed bilayer structures from prebiotically plausible amphiphiles is an essential requirement for the emergence of early cells on prebiotic Earth. The sources of amphiphiles could have been both endo- and exogenous (accretion of meteorite carbonaceous material or interstellar dust particles). Among all prebiotic possible amphiphile candidates, those containing phosphate are the least investigated species because their self-assembly occurs in a seemingly too narrow range of conditions. The self-assembly of simple phosphate amphiphiles should, however, be of great interest, as contemporary membranes predominantly contain phospholipids. In contrast to common expectations, we show that these amphiphiles can be easily synthesized under prebiotically plausible environmental conditions and can efficiently form bilayer structures in the presence of various co-surfactants across a large range of pH values. Vesiculation was even observed in crude reaction mixtures that contained 1-decanol as the amphiphile precursor. The two best co-surfactants promoted vesicle formation over the entire pH range in aqueous solutions. Expanding the pH range where bilayer membranes self-assemble and remain intact is a prerequisite for the emergence of early cell-like compartments and their preservation under fluctuating environmental conditions. These mixed bilayers also retained small charged solutes, such as dyes. These results demonstrate that alkyl phosphate amphiphiles might have played a significant role as early compartment building blocks.

  7. A swarm intelligence framework for reconstructing gene networks: searching for biologically plausible architectures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentzoglanakis, Kyriakos; Poole, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the problem of reverse engineering the topology of gene regulatory networks from temporal gene expression data. We adopt a computational intelligence approach comprising swarm intelligence techniques, namely particle swarm optimization (PSO) and ant colony optimization (ACO). In addition, the recurrent neural network (RNN) formalism is employed for modeling the dynamical behavior of gene regulatory systems. More specifically, ACO is used for searching the discrete space of network architectures and PSO for searching the corresponding continuous space of RNN model parameters. We propose a novel solution construction process in the context of ACO for generating biologically plausible candidate architectures. The objective is to concentrate the search effort into areas of the structure space that contain architectures which are feasible in terms of their topological resemblance to real-world networks. The proposed framework is initially applied to the reconstruction of a small artificial network that has previously been studied in the context of gene network reverse engineering. Subsequently, we consider an artificial data set with added noise for reconstructing a subnetwork of the genetic interaction network of S. cerevisiae (yeast). Finally, the framework is applied to a real-world data set for reverse engineering the SOS response system of the bacterium Escherichia coli. Results demonstrate the relative advantage of utilizing problem-specific knowledge regarding biologically plausible structural properties of gene networks over conducting a problem-agnostic search in the vast space of network architectures.

  8. The Sarrazin effect: the presence of absurd statements in conspiracy theories makes canonical information less plausible.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Marius Hans; Auer, Nikolas; Ortlieb, Stefan A; Carbon, Claus-Christian

    2013-01-01

    Reptile prime ministers and flying Nazi saucers-extreme and sometimes off-wall conclusion are typical ingredients of conspiracy theories. While individual differences are a common research topic concerning conspiracy theories, the role of extreme statements in the process of acquiring and passing on conspiratorial stories has not been regarded in an experimental design so far. We identified six morphological components of conspiracy theories empirically. On the basis of these content categories a set of narrative elements for a 9/11 story was compiled. These elements varied systematically in terms of conspiratorial allegation, i.e., they contained official statements concerning the events of 9/11, statements alleging to a conspiracy limited in time and space as well as extreme statements indicating an all-encompassing cover-up. Using the method of narrative construction, 30 people were given a set of cards with these statements and asked to construct the course of events of 9/11 they deem most plausible. When extreme statements were present in the set, the resulting stories were more conspiratorial; the number of official statements included in the narrative dropped significantly, whereas the self-assessment of the story's plausibility did not differ between conditions. This indicates that blatant statements in a pool of information foster the synthesis of conspiracy theories on an individual level. By relating these findings to one of Germany's most successful (and controversial) non-fiction books, we refer to the real-world dangers of this effect.

  9. Does recreational catch impact the TAC for commercial fisheries?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eero, Margit; Strehlow, H. V.; Adams, C. M.;

    2015-01-01

    The western Baltic cod is one of the first fish stocks in Europe that, since 2013, includes recreational catches in stock assessment and fisheries management advice. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of the calculated commercial total allowable catch (TAC) to including recreational...... catches in stock assessment. Our results show that the most crucial aspect in terms of the impact on commercial TAC is the assumption on recreational catch dynamics relative to that of commercial fisheries used in forecast. The results were less sensitive to the information on the historical amount...... and age structure of recreational catch. Our study is intended to inform potential debates related to resource allocation between the commercial and recreational sectors and contribute to developing a general framework for incorporating recreational catches in fisheries management advice in ICES...

  10. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  11. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  12. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  13. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  14. Contributions of the US state park system to nature recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siikamäki, Juha

    2011-08-23

    Nature recreation in the United States concentrates in publicly provided natural areas. They are costly to establish and maintain, but their societal contributions are difficult to measure. Here, a unique approach is developed to quantifying nature recreation services generated by the US state park system. The assessment first uses data from five national surveys conducted between 1975 and 2007 to consistently measure the amount of time used for nature recreation. The surveys comprise two official federal surveys and their predecessors. Each survey was designed to elicit nationally representative, detailed data on how people divide their time into different activities. State-level data on time use for nature recreation were then matched with information on the availability of state parks and other potentially important drivers of recreation, so that statistical estimation methods for nonexperimental panel data (difference-in-differences) could be used to examine the net contribution of state parks to nature recreation. The results show that state parks have a robust positive effect on nature recreation. For example, the approximately 2 million acres of state parks established between 1975 and 2007 are estimated to contribute annually 600 million hours of nature recreation (2.7 h per capita, approximately 9% of all nature recreation). All state parks generate annually an estimated 2.2 billion hours of nature recreation (9.7 h per capita; approximately 33% of all nature recreation). Using conventional approaches to valuing time, the estimated time value of nature recreation services generated by the US state park system is approximately $14 billion annually.

  15. Sustainability of Three Recreational Forest Landscape Management in Selangor, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Kher Hussein

    2014-01-01

    Different stakeholders managed recreational forests in Selangor, Malaysia. These stakeholders' involvements have risen a question whether their development have fulfilled the sustainable landscape requirement. The aim of this study was to understand and generate more comprehensive knowledge on the recreational forest landscape management towards forest sustainability. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the management of recreational forest in Selangor, Malaysia that affect landscap...

  16. Recreational System Optimization to Reduce Conflict on Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shilling, Fraser; Boggs, Jennifer; Reed, Sarah

    2012-09-01

    In response to federal administrative rule, the Tahoe National Forest (TNF), California, USA engaged in trail-route prioritization for motorized recreation (e.g., off-highway-vehicles) and other recreation types. The prioritization was intended to identify routes that were suitable and ill-suited for maintenance in a transportation system. A recreational user survey was conducted online ( n = 813) for user preferences for trail system characteristics, recreational use patterns, and demographics. Motorized trail users and non-motorized users displayed very clear and contrasting preferences for the same system. As has been found by previous investigators, non-motorized users expressed antagonism to motorized use on the same recreational travel system, whereas motorized users either supported multiple-use routes or dismissed non-motorized recreationists' concerns. To help the TNF plan for reduced conflict, a geographic information system (GIS) based modeling approach was used to identify recreational opportunities and potential environmental impacts of all travel routes. This GIS-based approach was based on an expert-derived rule set. The rules addressed particular environmental and recreation concerns in the TNF. Route segments were identified that could be incorporated into minimal-impact networks to support various types of recreation. The combination of potential impacts and user-benefits supported an optimization approach for an appropriate recreational travel network to minimize environmental impacts and user-conflicts in a multi-purpose system.

  17. 40 CFR 230.51 - Recreational and commercial fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Potential Effects on Human Use Characteristics § 230.51 Recreational and commercial fisheries. (a... important aquatic species through disruption of migration and spawning areas. The introduction of...

  18. Sustainability of Three Recreational Forest Landscape Management in Selangor, Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohd Kher Hussein

    2014-01-01

    Different stakeholders managed recreational forests in Selangor, Malaysia. These stakeholders' involvements have risen a question whether their development have fulfilled the sustainable landscape requirement...

  19. Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

    2010-11-01

    Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

  20. Does getting a dog increase recreational walking?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew W

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study examines changes in socio-demographic, environmental and intrapersonal factors associated with dog acquisition in non-dog owners at baseline to 12-months follow-up and the effect of dog acquisition on minutes per week of recreational walking. Methods RESIDE study participants completed self-administered questionnaires (baseline and 12-months follow-up measuring physical activity, dog ownership, dog walking behavior as well as environmental, intrapersonal and socio-demographic factors. Analysis was restricted to 'Continuing non-owners' (i.e., non-owners at both baseline and follow-up; n = 681 and 'New dog owners' (i.e., non-owners who acquired a dog by follow-up; n = 92. Results Overall, 12% of baseline non-owners had acquired a dog at follow-up. Dog acquisition was associated with working and having children at home. Those who changed from single to couple marital status were also more likely to acquire a dog. The increase in minutes of walking for recreation within the neighborhood from baseline to follow-up was 48 minutes/week for new dog owners compared with 12 minutes/week for continuing non-owners (p p p > 0.05 after further adjustment for change in baseline to follow-up variables. Increase in intention to walk was the main factor contributing to attenuation of the effect of dog acquisition on recreational walking. Conclusion This study used a large representative sample of non-owners to examine the relationship between dog acquisition and recreational walking and provides evidence to suggest that dog acquisition leads to an increase in walking. The most likely mechanism through which dog acquisition facilitates increased physical activity is through behavioral intention via the dog's positive effect on owner's cognitive beliefs about walking, and through the provision of motivation and social support for walking. The results suggest that behavioral intention mediates the relationship between dog acquisition

  1. Injury patterns in recreational rock climbers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooks, M D; Johnston, R B; Ensor, C D; McIntosh, B; James, S

    1995-01-01

    We studied 39 recreational rock climbers to determine the incidence and pattern of injuries sustained in the sport at their level. Eleven climbers (26%), who climbed beyond the sport level, had sustained a major injury from a fall. Thirty-five climbers (89%) sustained at least one significant injury. Fifty percent of the injuries involved the hand or wrist. Only seven climbers (19%) had evidence of a digital pulley injury (climber's finger). Four climbers (11%) had evidence of a carpal tunnel syndrome. Twenty climbers (50%) had tendinitis in an upper extremity on physical examination.

  2. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  3. Management implications of changes in recreation activity motivation across physical settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    David A Graefe; Rudy M. Schuster; Gary T. Green; H. Ken. Cordell

    2010-01-01

    Outdoor recreation management frameworks suggest that a diverse set of recreation opportunities is necessary to meet the needs and desires of a diverse population of recreationists. Managers of recreation resources must understand recreational demand if they wish to provide high-quality recreation opportunities to their users. The purpose of this study was to examine...

  4. Recreation users fees on federal lands: a test of structural change between 1995 and 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.M. Bowker; Gary Green; Dan MuCullom; Ken Cordell

    2008-01-01

    Federal lands provide many recreation facilities and services. On some of these lands, fees have been and are currently being charged for certain recreational services. This study examined the attitudes of users, between 1995 and 2003, towards recreation user fees on public lands. Data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment on recreational...

  5. A neurophysiologically plausible population code model for feature integration explains visual crowding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald van den Berg

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available An object in the peripheral visual field is more difficult to recognize when surrounded by other objects. This phenomenon is called "crowding". Crowding places a fundamental constraint on human vision that limits performance on numerous tasks. It has been suggested that crowding results from spatial feature integration necessary for object recognition. However, in the absence of convincing models, this theory has remained controversial. Here, we present a quantitative and physiologically plausible model for spatial integration of orientation signals, based on the principles of population coding. Using simulations, we demonstrate that this model coherently accounts for fundamental properties of crowding, including critical spacing, "compulsory averaging", and a foveal-peripheral anisotropy. Moreover, we show that the model predicts increased responses to correlated visual stimuli. Altogether, these results suggest that crowding has little immediate bearing on object recognition but is a by-product of a general, elementary integration mechanism in early vision aimed at improving signal quality.

  6. A neurophysiologically plausible population code model for feature integration explains visual crowding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Ronald; Roerdink, Jos B T M; Cornelissen, Frans W

    2010-01-22

    An object in the peripheral visual field is more difficult to recognize when surrounded by other objects. This phenomenon is called "crowding". Crowding places a fundamental constraint on human vision that limits performance on numerous tasks. It has been suggested that crowding results from spatial feature integration necessary for object recognition. However, in the absence of convincing models, this theory has remained controversial. Here, we present a quantitative and physiologically plausible model for spatial integration of orientation signals, based on the principles of population coding. Using simulations, we demonstrate that this model coherently accounts for fundamental properties of crowding, including critical spacing, "compulsory averaging", and a foveal-peripheral anisotropy. Moreover, we show that the model predicts increased responses to correlated visual stimuli. Altogether, these results suggest that crowding has little immediate bearing on object recognition but is a by-product of a general, elementary integration mechanism in early vision aimed at improving signal quality.

  7. Quantum theory as plausible reasoning applied to data obtained by robust experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Raedt, H; Katsnelson, M I; Michielsen, K

    2016-05-28

    We review recent work that employs the framework of logical inference to establish a bridge between data gathered through experiments and their objective description in terms of human-made concepts. It is shown that logical inference applied to experiments for which the observed events are independent and for which the frequency distribution of these events is robust with respect to small changes of the conditions under which the experiments are carried out yields, without introducing any concept of quantum theory, the quantum theoretical description in terms of the Schrödinger or the Pauli equation, the Stern-Gerlach or Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm experiments. The extraordinary descriptive power of quantum theory then follows from the fact that it is plausible reasoning, that is common sense, applied to reproducible and robust experimental data.

  8. Plausible families of compact objects with a Non Local Equation of State

    CERN Document Server

    Hernández, H

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the plausibility of some models emerging from an algorithm devised to generate a one-parameter family of interior solutions for the Einstein equations. It is explored how their physical variables change as the family-parameter varies. The models studied correspond to anisotropic spherical matter configurations having a non local equation of state. This particular type of equation of state with no causality problems provides, at a given point, the radial pressure not only as a function of the density but as a functional of the enclosed matter distribution. We have found that there are several model-independent tendencies as the parameter increases: the equation of state tends to be stiffer and the total mass becomes half of its external radius. Profiting from the concept of cracking of materials in General Relativity, we obtain that those models become more stable as the family parameter increases.

  9. Signature of Plausible Accreting Supermassive Black Holes in Mrk 261/262 and Mrk 266

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gagik Ter-Kazarian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We address the neutrino radiation of plausible accreting supermassive black holes closely linking to the 5 nuclear components of galaxy samples of Mrk 261/262 and Mrk 266. We predict a time delay before neutrino emission of the same scale as the age of the Universe. The ultrahigh energy neutrinos are produced in superdense protomatter medium via simple (quark or pionic reactions or modified URCA processes (G. Gamow was inspired to name the process URCA after the name of a casino in Rio de Janeiro. The resulting neutrino fluxes for quark reactions are ranging from to , where is the opening parameter. For pionic and modified URCA reactions, the fluxes are and , respectively. These fluxes are highly beamed along the plane of accretion disk, peaked at ultrahigh energies, and collimated in smaller opening angle .

  10. Plausible role of nanoparticle contamination in the synthesis and properties of organic electronic materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananikov, Valentine P.

    2016-12-01

    Traceless transition metal catalysis (Pd, Ni, Cu, etc.) is very difficult to achieve. Metal contamination in the synthesized products is unavoidable and the most important questions are: How to control metal impurities? What amount of metal impurities can be tolerated? What is the influence of metal impurities? In this brief review, the plausible origins of nanoparticle contamination are discussed in the framework of catalytic synthesis of organic electronic materials. Key factors responsible for increasing the probability of contamination are considered from the point of view of catalytic reaction mechanisms. The purity of the catalyst may greatly affect the molecular weight of a polymer, reaction yield, selectivity and several other parameters. Metal contamination in the final polymeric products may induce some changes in the electric conductivity, charge transport properties, photovoltaic performance and other important parameters.

  11. Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cafferty, Brian J; Fialho, David M; Khanam, Jaheda; Krishnamurthy, Ramanarayanan; Hud, Nicholas V

    2016-04-25

    The RNA World hypothesis presupposes that abiotic reactions originally produced nucleotides, the monomers of RNA and universal constituents of metabolism. However, compatible prebiotic reactions for the synthesis of complementary (that is, base pairing) nucleotides and mechanisms for their mutual selection within a complex chemical environment have not been reported. Here we show that two plausible prebiotic heterocycles, melamine and barbituric acid, form glycosidic linkages with ribose and ribose-5-phosphate in water to produce nucleosides and nucleotides in good yields. Even without purification, these nucleotides base pair in aqueous solution to create linear supramolecular assemblies containing thousands of ordered nucleotides. Nucleotide anomerization and supramolecular assemblies favour the biologically relevant β-anomer form of these ribonucleotides, revealing abiotic mechanisms by which nucleotide structure and configuration could have been originally favoured. These findings indicate that nucleotide formation and selection may have been robust processes on the prebiotic Earth, if other nucleobases preceded those of extant life.

  12. Complex adaptive HIV/AIDS risk reduction: Plausible implications from findings in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burman, Chris J; Aphane, Marota A

    2016-05-16

    This article emphasises that when working with complex adaptive systems it is possible to stimulate new social practices and/or cognitive perspectives that contribute to risk reduction, associated with reducing aggregate community viral loads. The process of achieving this is highly participatory and is methodologically possible because evidence of 'attractors' that influence the social practices can be identified using qualitative research techniques. Using findings from Limpopo Province, South Africa, we argue that working with 'wellness attractors' and increasing their presence within the HIV/AIDS landscape could influence aggregate community viral loads. While the analysis that is presented is unconventional, it is plausible that this perspective may hold potential to develop a biosocial response - which the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) has called for - that reinforces the biomedical opportunities that are now available to achieve the ambition of ending AIDS by 2030.

  13. Reciprocity-based reasons for benefiting research participants: most fail, the most plausible is problematic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Neema

    2014-11-01

    A common reason for giving research participants post-trial access (PTA) to the trial intervention appeals to reciprocity, the principle, stated most generally, that if one person benefits a second, the second should reciprocate: benefit the first in return. Many authors consider it obvious that reciprocity supports PTA. Yet their reciprocity principles differ, with many authors apparently unaware of alternative versions. This article is the first to gather the range of reciprocity principles. It finds that: (1) most are false. (2) The most plausible principle, which is also problematic, applies only when participants experience significant net risks or burdens. (3) Seldom does reciprocity support PTA for participants or give researchers stronger reason to benefit participants than equally needy non-participants. (4) Reciprocity fails to explain the common view that it is bad when participants in a successful trial have benefited from the trial intervention but lack PTA to it.

  14. Oxidation of cefazolin by potassium permanganate: Transformation products and plausible pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liping; Wei, Dongbin; Wei, Guohua; Du, Yuguo

    2016-04-01

    Cefazolin was demonstrated to exert high reactivity toward permanganate (Mn(VII)), a common oxidant in water pre-oxidation treatment. In this study, five transformation products were found to be classified into three categories according to the contained characteristic functional groups: three (di-)sulfoxide products, one sulfone product and one di-ketone product. Products analyses showed that two kinds of reactions including oxidation of thioether and the cleavage of unsaturated CC double bond occurred during transformation of cefazolin by Mn(VII). Subsequently, the plausible transformation pathways under different pH conditions were proposed based on the identified products and chemical reaction principles. More importantly, the simulation with real surface water matrix indicated that the proposed transformation pathways of cefazolin could be replayed in real water treatment practices.

  15. Plausible authentication of manuka honey and related products by measuring leptosperin with methyl syringate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Yoji; Fujinaka, Rie; Ishisaka, Akari; Nitta, Yoko; Kitamoto, Noritoshi; Takimoto, Yosuke

    2014-07-01

    Manuka honey, obtained from Leptospermum scoparium flowers in New Zealand, has strong antibacterial properties. In this study, plausible authentication of the manuka honey was inspected by measuring leptosperin, methyl syringate 4-O-β-D-gentiobiose, along with methyl syringate. Despite a gradual decrease in methyl syringate content over 30 days at 50 °C, even at moderate 37 °C, leptosperin remained stable. A considerable correlation between nonperoxide antibacterial activity and leptosperin content was observed in 20 certified manuka honey samples. Leptosperin and methyl syringate in manuka honey and related products were analyzed using HPLC connected with mass spectrometry. One noncertified brand displayed significant variations in the leptosperin and methyl syringate contents between two samples obtained from different regions. Therefore, certification is clearly required to protect consumers from disguised and/or low-quality honey. Because leptosperin is stable during storage and specific to manuka honey, its measurement may be applicable for manuka honey authentication.

  16. A plausible simultaneous synthesis of amino acids and simple peptides on the primordial Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Eric T; Zhou, Manshui; Burton, Aaron S; Glavin, Daniel P; Dworkin, Jason P; Krishnamurthy, Ramanarayanan; Fernández, Facundo M; Bada, Jeffrey L

    2014-07-28

    Following his seminal work in 1953, Stanley Miller conducted an experiment in 1958 to study the polymerization of amino acids under simulated early Earth conditions. In the experiment, Miller sparked a gas mixture of CH4, NH3, and H2O, while intermittently adding the plausible prebiotic condensing reagent cyanamide. For unknown reasons, an analysis of the samples was not reported. We analyzed the archived samples for amino acids, dipeptides, and diketopiperazines by liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry, and mass spectrometry. A dozen amino acids, 10 glycine-containing dipeptides, and 3 glycine-containing diketopiperazines were detected. Miller's experiment was repeated and similar polymerization products were observed. Aqueous heating experiments indicate that Strecker synthesis intermediates play a key role in facilitating polymerization. These results highlight the potential importance of condensing reagents in generating diversity within the prebiotic chemical inventory.

  17. Evaluation and integration of cancer gene classifiers: identification and ranking of plausible drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Tian, Feng; Hu, Zhenjun; DeLisi, Charles

    2015-05-11

    The number of mutated genes in cancer cells is far larger than the number of mutations that drive cancer. The difficulty this creates for identifying relevant alterations has stimulated the development of various computational approaches to distinguishing drivers from bystanders. We develop and apply an ensemble classifier (EC) machine learning method, which integrates 10 classifiers that are publically available, and apply it to breast and ovarian cancer. In particular we find the following: (1) Using both standard and non-standard metrics, EC almost always outperforms single method classifiers, often by wide margins. (2) Of the 50 highest ranked genes for breast (ovarian) cancer, 34 (30) are associated with other cancers in either the OMIM, CGC or NCG database (P plausible. Biological implications are briefly discussed. Source codes and detailed results are available at http://www.visantnet.org/misi/driver_integration.zip.

  18. Probability, plausibility, and adequacy evaluations of the Oriente Study demonstrate that supplementation improved child growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habicht, Jean-Pierre; Martorell, Reynaldo

    2010-02-01

    This article presents evidence that the high-nutrient supplement in the Oriente study (Atole) improved child growth. The evidence is presented at 4 levels. There was a causal effect of the intervention on child length, as assessed by probability analyses of the randomized, controlled trial (P < 0.05). The plausibility analyses, which included an examination of wasting, showed that the nutritional impact was due to the Atole, especially in those who were <3 y old and who suffered from diarrhea. The adequacy analyses revealed excellent biological efficacy of the Atole at the individual level. At the level of the whole population, the efficacy of impact was much less, because many children did not participate fully in the supplementation program. The external validity of the biological impact is likely to be good for populations with similar diets and medical care.

  19. The Sarrazin effect: the presence of absurd statements in conspiracy theories makes canonical information less plausible

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Hans Raab

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Reptile prime ministers and flying Nazi saucers—extreme and sometimes off-wall conclusion are common ingredients of conspiracy theories. While individual differences are a common research topic concerning conspiracy theories, the role of extreme statements in the process of acquiring and passing on conspiratorial stories has not been regarded in an experimental design so far. We identified six morphological components of conspiracy theories empirically. On the basis of these content categories a set of narrative elements for a 9/11 story was compiled. These elements varied systematically in terms of conspiratorial allegation, i.e., they contained official statements concerning the events of 9/11, statements alleging to a conspiracy limited in time and space as well as extreme statements indicating an all-encompassing cover-up. Using the method of narrative construction, 30 people were given a set of cards with these statements and asked to construct the course of events of 9/11 they deem most plausible. When extreme statements were present in the set, the resulting stories were more conspiratorial; the number of official statements included in the narrative dropped significantly, whereas the self-assessment of the story’s plausibility did not differ between conditions. This indicates that blatant statements in a pool of information foster the synthesis of conspiracy theories on an individual level. By relating these findings to one of Germany’s most successful (and controversial non-fiction books, we refer to the real-world dangers of this effect.

  20. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  1. Campus Recreation Worldwide: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Kozechian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The percentage of adults who engage in regular leisure time physical activity is decreasing, causing an increase in risk for several health issues. Research indicates that the more physically active individuals are in their leisure time as adolescents and young adults, the more likely they are to remain active throughout the lifespan. The number of individuals entering the college or university setting has continued to increase over the past decade. Institutions of higher education are supporting the construction and management of large recreational facilities on-campuses for college students to use for leisure time physical activity behaviors. Many administrators are aware of the benefits of participation in leisure time physical activity among college students including: higher grades, less stress, better adjustment and higher persistence to graduation. Given the increase in popularity of comprehensive campus recreation programs and facilities, there is a need for theory based research to bridge the gap in assessing participation and developing intervention and educational materials to increase participation.

  2. Perceived Muscle Soreness in Recreational Female Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, D; Smith, K; Smeltzer, C; Young, K; Burns, S

    The purpose of this study was to determine if rating of perceived exertion correlated with perceived muscle soreness during delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) in female runners. This study examined the pre and post running economy measures and perceived muscle soreness before and after a 30-min downhill run (DHR) at -15% grade and 70% of the subjects predetermined maximum oxygen uptake (VO2 peak). Six female recreational runners (mean age = 24.5) performed level running at 65%, 75%, and 85% of their VO2 peak prior to DHR (baseline economy runs), as well as, immediately following and 4 successive days after the DHR. Subjective response related to perceived muscle soreness increased significantly from a mean of 2 (pre DHR) to 62 (2 days post DHR) on a scale of 1-100. Creatine kinase levels and oxygen consumption increased post DHR compared to pre DHR. Rating of perceived exertion did not change between the economy runs performed prior to or at any point after the DHR. Perceived muscle soreness is a better tool than the RPE scale to monitor exercise intensity for recreational female runners during periods of DOMS and running economy is adversely affected by DOMS.

  3. Perceived Muscle Soreness in Recreational Female Runners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, D.; Smith, K.; Smeltzer, C.; Young, K.; Burns, S.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if rating of perceived exertion correlated with perceived muscle soreness during delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) in female runners. This study examined the pre and post running economy measures and perceived muscle soreness before and after a 30-min downhill run (DHR) at −15% grade and 70% of the subjects predetermined maximum oxygen uptake (VO2 peak). Six female recreational runners (mean age = 24.5) performed level running at 65%, 75%, and 85% of their VO2 peak prior to DHR (baseline economy runs), as well as, immediately following and 4 successive days after the DHR. Results: Subjective response related to perceived muscle soreness increased significantly from a mean of 2 (pre DHR) to 62 (2 days post DHR) on a scale of 1–100. Creatine kinase levels and oxygen consumption increased post DHR compared to pre DHR. Rating of perceived exertion did not change between the economy runs performed prior to or at any point after the DHR. Conclusion: Perceived muscle soreness is a better tool than the RPE scale to monitor exercise intensity for recreational female runners during periods of DOMS and running economy is adversely affected by DOMS. PMID:27182336

  4. Protocol for cardiac assessment of recreational athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinea, Ana M; Lollett, Carlos; Herrera, Hector; Passariello, Gianfranco; Wong, Sara

    2012-01-01

    In this work, the development of a database on physical fitness is presented. As initial population to fill this database, people who practice recreational sports at the Universidad Simon Bolivar (USB) were chosen. The goal was studying individual physical fitness in order to structure exercise routines that gives certain benefits without risking the individual health, promoting a less sedentary way of life. Before the study, a low-cost noninvasive protocol was designed to determine the level of physical fitness. The methodology consisted of four steps: a) A review of existing protocols to propose a set of physical fitness (International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)), cardiovascular (heart rate variability, heart rate recovery time and arterial blood pressure), anthropomorphic, aerobic (maximum oxygen consumption) and mood state (Profile of Mood State (POMS)) measurements, which allow sketching a complete profile on the sportsman physical fitness. b) Instrumental data collection. c) Electrocardiographic signal processing. d) Data post-processing using multivariate analysis. The database was composed of 26 subject from USB. Ten subjects were soccer players, ten were mountain climbers and six were sedentary people. Results showed that the heart rate recover time after 2-3 min, IPAQ and maximum oxygen consumption have higher weights for classifying individuals according to their habitual physical activity. Heart rate variability, as well as, POMS did not contribute greatly for discriminating recreational sport from sedentary persons.

  5. LANDSCAPING RECREATIONAL AREAS FOR WALKING IN A MOUNTAIN FOREST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivonin V. M.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is the substantiation of recreational zones in the mountain forests for walking tourists. The article contains a functional zoning, design and spatial solution of landscapes of these zones. The aesthetic and recreational value of forests recreational areas increases the implementation of thinning. Implementation of thinning in the territory of the forest zone allocates places for relaxing and walking. This is the basis of functional separation of recreational areas. Coordinates of the objects of recreational areas (inputs and outputs, the center of the composition, toilets, natural monuments, gazebos, crossing trails and wooden sculptures are determined using GPS satnav. We can determine the spatial composition of landscapes with forest vegetation, relief and water space. This allows you to allocate places for sight-seeing platforms. Small architectural forms must be in harmony with the surrounding landscape. Walking paths form the basis recreation areas. Turns and bends of routes for walking must comply with the elements of the landscape. Areas for recreation are usually located along the trail in of water bodies and in places of disclosure prospects. The recreation area is limited to with an enclosure which fits into the forest landscapes. In this case, the fence should not interfere with of migration of small animals (herpetofauna, insectivores, and others. The harmony of landscape elements serves as a criterion of completion of design. In the recreation area fire prevention measures have to be carried out by tenants. Permissible load of tourists to recreation areas is determined by a special technique. Conclusions: there was proposed a new kind of recreation facilities in the mountain forests - the zone for walking tourists. When carrying out forestry works, there will be a minimum of expenses on arrangement of the zone. Negative consequences to the forest environment would also be minimized

  6. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Sports and Recreation for the Disabled: A Resource Manual.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paciorek, Michael J.; Jones, Jeffery A.

    This resource manual represents the most comprehensive information available on adapted sport and recreation activities for people with disabilities. The book focuses on ways that people with disabilities can access sport and recreational opportunities from which they have been traditionally excluded. The manual takes a cross-disability view of…

  8. The perception and constraints towards recreational activity among female students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azlan Ahmad Kamal

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available More often than not, male students are seen to be more active in recreation activity than female students. To investigate this matter, a study was done on the female recreational activity participation. This study investigated the perception and constraints towards recreation activity among female students in a university in Malaysia. This study used a questionnaire regarding the recreation activity to collect the findings. Sixty respondents have been selected randomly as the subject for this study. All the information that is obtained from the questionnaire has been collected and analyzed using SPSS. It was found recreation is most often perceived as ‘extreme sports’ by female students. Moreover, most of the female students perceived themselves as participating regularly in recreational activity. The reasons for not participating in recreational activity are of lack of time, low energy level, lack of participants, lack of facilities and money. It was also found female students prefer outdoor activities such as camping, abseiling and wall climbing. Future studies should compare the perception of male and female students’ on recreational activity.

  9. Trends in recreational vehicle traffic in northeastern Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur Norton; Karen Noyce; Thomas J. Wood

    1980-01-01

    Many northeastern Minnesota communities depend upon outdoor recreation activities and tourism for a substantial portion of their yearly cash inflow. While the recreation and tourism industry in the region has grown steady in recent years, it may prove to be less stable in the future than other industries, for at least two basic reasons: (1) while sociologists and...

  10. Services for culturally diverse customers in parks and recreation

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Li; J.D. Absher; A.R. Graefe; Y. Hsu

    2008-01-01

    Changes in racial and ethnic composition due to the increasing diversity in the United States are confronting managers of parks and recreation areas. Since cultural values influence perceptions and behaviors, studying cultural values among different groups is important for understanding perceptions of service quality and parks and recreation behavior. The purpose of...

  11. Recreation settings, scenery, and visitor experiences: a research assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel R. Williams

    2007-01-01

    A core task of recreation research is to understand the relation between settings, scenery, and visitor experiences. This paper uses environmental psychology to describe four conceptual models underlying these relations: inherent/aesthetic, opportunity/goal-directed, symbolic, and expressive. The paper then describes some challenges to applying results to recreation...

  12. Principles and Methods of Adapted Physical Education and Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnheim, Daniel D.; And Others

    This text is designed for the elementary and secondary school physical educator and the recreation specialist in adapted physical education and, more specifically, as a text for college courses in adapted and corrective physical education and therapeutic recreation. The text is divided into four major divisions: scope, key teaching and therapy…

  13. Application of Pricing Strategy in the Management of Recreational Fishery

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Chen; Han, Xingyong

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the feasibility of carrying out various pricing strategies in recreational fishery management. It also introduces the four common pricing means, which are time (season) differential pricing, customer differential pricing, quantity discount and two-part tariff system. The effects of pricing strategy of recreational fishery on social welfare are studied taking time (season) differential pricing as an example.

  14. Adapting the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) for states lands planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Bulmer; Linda Henzel; Ann Mates; Matt Moore; Thomas A. More

    2002-01-01

    The huge population increases anticipated over the next century make the problem of identifying and conserving open space critical. While the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum is undoubtedly the most sophisticated recreation inventory system established to date, it was designed for, and is best suited to, the large tracts of public lands in the western U.S, In this paper...

  15. 77 FR 71191 - 2012 Recreational Water Quality Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-29

    ... authorized Tribes are to adopt water quality criteria to protect designated uses (e.g., aquatic life... AGENCY 2012 Recreational Water Quality Criteria AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of availability of the 2012 Recreational Water Quality Criteria. SUMMARY: Pursuant to section 304...

  16. Recreational impacts on the fauna of Australian coastal marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Nigel; Burgin, Shelley

    2010-11-01

    This paper reviews recent research into the ecological impacts of recreation and tourism on coastal marine fauna in Australia. Despite the high and growing importance of water-based recreation to the Australian economy, and the known fragility of many Australian ecosystems, there has been relatively limited research into the effects of marine tourism and recreation, infrastructure and activities, on aquatic resources. In this paper we have reviewed the ecological impacts on fauna that are caused by outdoor recreation (including tourism) in Australian coastal marine ecosystems. We predict that the single most potentially severe impact of recreation may be the introduction and/or dispersal of non-indigenous species of marine organisms by recreational vessels. Such introductions, together with other impacts due to human activities have the potential to increasingly degrade recreation destinations. In response, governments have introduced a wide range of legislative tools (e.g., impact assessment, protected area reservation) to manage the recreational industry. It would appear, however, that these instruments are not always appropriately applied.

  17. Adapted Physical Education and Therapeutic Recreation in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etzel-Wise, D; Mears, B

    2004-01-01

    Adapted physical education is a mandated service, whereas therapeutic recreation and traditional recreation are considered related services under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act. In this article, the authors describe the distinctions between the services, recognition of need for referral, methods of assessment, sample…

  18. 36 CFR 7.51 - Curecanti Recreation Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Curecanti Recreation Area. 7.51 Section 7.51 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR SPECIAL REGULATIONS, AREAS OF THE NATIONAL PARK SYSTEM § 7.51 Curecanti Recreation Area. (a) Hunting...

  19. Leadership for Recreation, Parks, and Leisure Services. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edginton, Christopher R.; Hudson, Susan D.; Scholl, Kathleen G.; Lauzon, Lara

    2011-01-01

    "Leadership for Recreation, Parks and Leisure Services" presents new perspectives on the importance of leadership in the profession. Integrating theory with practice, the book provides foundational perspectives in the study of leadership at all levels--direct service, supervisory, managerial and community/civic--in recreation, parks and leisure…

  20. Therapeutic Recreation--Meeting the Challenge of New Demands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Stephen C. Ed.

    1991-01-01

    Nine articles discuss therapeutic recreation, focusing on community reintegration, social skills training in mental illness, computer links for social service providers, approaches to professional preparation, assistive technology, play environments, self-esteem in adult clients, volunteers, and recreation and music therapy for sexually abused…

  1. Computer Technology and Its Impact on Recreation and Sport Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Craig M.

    This paper describes several types of computer programs that can be useful to sports and recreation programs. Computerized tournament scheduling software is helpful to recreation and parks staff working with tournaments of 50 teams/individuals or more. Important features include team capacity, league formation, scheduling conflicts, scheduling…

  2. Preparing Students to Write a Professional Philosophy of Recreation Paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Cheryl; Schneider, Paige P.; Johnson, Corey W.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a process for guiding students through the writing of a Professional Philosophy of Recreation Paper and a one-page philosophy statement suitable for use in students' professional portfolios. The authors describe how the review of recreation education literature, scholarship on teaching and learning, and assessment of student…

  3. Report of the Technical Committee for Hospitality, Tourism, Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oregon State Dept. of Education, Salem. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This color-coded committee report identifies the skills and knowledge required by employees in the hospitality/tourism/recreation occupational area. The reports of four subcommittees focused on food/beverage, hotel/motel, recreation/leisure, and travel/tourism skills are also included. Introductory materials include a general statement of the…

  4. A content analysis of USDA Forest Service recreation partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Selin

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service has been implementing a partnership initiative for 6 years as part of the National Recreation Strategy. Several internal efforts have been undertaken to evaluate the progress made in this initiative as well as to make adjustments in the initiative for the future. These evaluation efforts are extended to present a content analysis of recreation...

  5. A Study of Ethics Education within Therapeutic Recreation Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisbett, Nancy; Brown-Welty, Sharon; O'Keefe, Cathy

    2002-01-01

    Explored the status of ethics education within therapeutic recreation. Researchers surveyed all entry-level undergraduate and graduate therapeutic recreation training programs in one state, examining responses for differences in content and delivery. Programs appeared consistent with regard to ethics instruction, integrating similar content…

  6. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  7. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  8. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Diana R; Ready, Richard C; Buddemeier, Robert W; Martinich, Jeremy A; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W

    2013-01-01

    The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  9. Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana R Lane

    Full Text Available The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU greenhouse gas (GHG emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.

  10. Physical recreation in a structure of active rest of students.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaytzev V.P.

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Experience of authors is generalized on issue «Physical recreation»: concept, facilities, forms and methods of physical culture that is used in physical recreation and offered for the students some recommendation on their realization. In the process of forming motive activity it is necessary to take into account both favourable and unfavorable social factors, and during practical work - such directions: hygienic, health-improving recreation, general preparatory and medical. It is presented bases of physical recreation of students: construction of the complex program, development of valeological and recreation measures; joint creative activity of teachers and students and at the same time use of modern methods of health forming technologies.

  11. The Present Situation and Development Research of Recreation Ecology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Quan; ZHOU; Guoqin; HUANG; Qiguo; ZHAO

    2013-01-01

    With the continuous development of society,the problem of the tourism also appears more outstanding.The article analyzed the relationship between ecotourism and recreation ecology on the basis of the understanding and researching,and put recreation ecology forward a deeper level of request.How to develop the tourism,including ecotourism,is the problem to be solved.Five research methods about recreation ecology were introduced,namely the field survey method,the positioning method,the ecological simulation method,the modern information technology method and the tourism evaluation and planning method,from the point of view of research methods to elaborate the present situation of recreation ecology at home and abroad.The relationship of recreation ecology and landscape ecology,landscape architecture,biological statistics and the potential were discussed at the end of the article.

  12. Some economic aspects of recreational injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arundel, J T

    1974-06-01

    This paper deals with some basic features of accidents in recreation and will attempt to throw some light on their economic consequences. Let us examine sport as one aspect of recreation. As Williams (1973) put it, "Sport is a phenomenon of simple definition, but with well recognised features. It is essentially recreational, essentially physical, frequently competitive and always contrived." The number and type of participants has increased, along with the range of activities available. Classifications of sport, at best, are arbitrary but nevertheless are useful for analysis. These divisions may be land/air/water types; indoor/outdoor; team/individual; body contact/non-contact/vehicular; amateur/professional. Sports injuries are of two types, intrinsic or self-inflicted (Williams, 1973) and extrinsic. Intrinsic injuries refer to those as a result of over-use (leading, for example, to stress fractures) and to specific incidents not involving outside agents. Extrinsic injuries are caused by contact with external objects and form the bulk of injuries sustained in body-contact, vehicular (horses, cars, skis) and environmental-type sports. Extrinsic injuries are generally more severe because greater forces and velocities are involved. Appendix 1 lists the main sporting activities according to location of sport; individual or team participation; likelihood of extensive body contact; and professional status. Professional players not only suffer loss of earning capacity but may reflect a bad investment for an entrepreneur or reduce spectator attendance and gate taking. It is apparent that team sports, having substantial body contact, face a higher risk of moderate to serious injury than do individual, non-contact sports, although major injuries can be sustained in the latter, for example, sprains and dislocations in athletics, golf, tennis, etc. Other sports must be classed as dangerous because of the nature of competition, for example, motor racing and flying. These

  13. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  14. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  15. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  16. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  17. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  18. The 1992 Vermont recreation survey and environmental index: Vermonters' perceptions of recreational and environmental issues in Vermont

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin R. Wiberg; Frederick E. Schmidt; Robert E. Manning; Susan Bulmer

    1995-01-01

    In 1992, Vermonters rated the state's recreational resources a "B-" with a corresponding grade of "B" for the quality of the state's environment. Scenic resources continued to be rated most highly as were state trails and commercial recreation establishments. Concern for water resource quality, solid and toxic waste disposal, acid rain,...

  19. 75 FR 26714 - Notice of Proposed New Recreation Fee Site; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act, (Title VIII...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-12

    ... ATV Trail is located near Beaumont, MS. Currently, the site contains 31 miles of trail, an information.... This annual pass could be used for access to three other motorized trails in the National Forests in... recreational experience at the facility. Comparable recreational use fees are being proposed at other...

  20. Influences of recreation influence of forest and rangeland management on anadromous fish habitat in Western North America: influences of recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger N. Clark; Dave R. Gibbons; Gilbert B. Pauley

    1985-01-01

    Public and private lands in the United States are used by millions of people for recreational activities. Many of these activities occur in or near streams and coastal areas that produce various species of anadromous fish. A major concern of fishery managers is the possible adverse effect of recreational uses on fish habitat. Conversely, the management of fish habitats...

  1. 77 FR 37387 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Understanding Recreational Angler Attitudes and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-21

    ...; Understanding Recreational Angler Attitudes and Preferences for Saltwater Fishing AGENCY: National Oceanic and... attitudes, preferences, and concerns that recreational anglers hold towards saltwater fishing. The National...

  2. Recreation of social bonds in the classroom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edy Luz Castro Rodríguez

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This article is about an ongoing research in Escuela Normal Superior located in Mompós (Bolivar, whose aim is to recreate the social bonds in the classroom by the effective practice of human values such as; respect and tolerance. This qualitative and ethnographic research intends to identify, analyze and propose solutions to the target situation: interaction difficulties in the classroom. By close contact with the community and its involvement in the research process, it is expected to achieve a deep comprehension of its world view, culture, language, habits and customs in order to suggest and implement educative strategies to build up an armonic school life.

  3. Periurban forests shifting from recreation to wellness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Papillon

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available In France and in Europe, periurban forests are subject to high social demands for recreational purposes. These demands take the form of frequent visits for sports or rest. Local governments have succeeded in creating new wooded parks close to cities that are highly appreciated by the population. A survey was run on visitors to forests around three mid-sized cities, addressing what they do in the forests and why. The answers revealed differences between suburban parks and larger national forests located farther from the cities. New approaches targeting health may also be observed on the part of both individuals and the health sector. These new approaches indicate the existence of a wellness function in periurban forests.

  4. Recreational drugs, methadone and protease inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timour, K

    1998-01-01

    The Treatment Education Project, an initiative of the Staten Island AIDS Task Force, often responds to requests for information on the effects of recreational drugs on people taking anti-HIV medications. There is very little research on the topic because the drugs are illegal and the effects tested with chemically pure street drugs are not likely to mirror those in the population using varied strengths and qualities of the drugs. There have been some controlled studies with methadone, and there is a trial underway to test the use of Marinol and marijuana with Crixivan. The Treatment Education Project also provides counseling, maintains Internet sites in both English and Spanish, and sets up treatment libraries. They also provide workshops for social service agencies and staff.

  5. Recreational Value of an Oasis in Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zekri, Slim; Mbaga, Msafiri; Fouzai, Ayoub; Al-Shaqsi, Saif

    2011-07-01

    Increasing demand for water to develop non-agricultural activities is causing water to be diverted to high-value uses at the expense of irrigation. However, agriculture provides a flow of amenities in the desert environment which are not either accounted or paid. Oases are spread all over the globe and are threatened for various reasons among which is the high pressure of demand for fresh water. This paper estimates the recreation use value of an oasis. The paper is based on the Misfat Al-Abryeen oasis in Oman, a man-made area of streams and woodland. The travel cost method is used through an on-site questionnaire distributed to 230 visitors. Around 75% of visitors to the oasis also visited other historical or ecological sites during the same day-trip. The econometric model is estimated using negative binomial regression with endogenous stratification. The average consumer surplus, or benefit, from visiting Misfat Al-Abryeen is estimated at US 104.74 per individual per trip. The total social benefit from this oasis is estimated at 366,590 per year. These results underscore the importance of the role played by irrigated agriculture in the provision of amenity services for the tourism sector in a desert environment. The sustainability of the irrigation activity depends on the recognition of the recreation role of oases and the transfer of part of these benefits to the farmers who maintain the irrigation system. The implementation of an entrance fee to the oasis might increase farmers' profit by 6-21%.

  6. Biologic plausibility, cellular effects, and molecular mechanisms of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) in atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borow, Kenneth M; Nelson, John R; Mason, R Preston

    2015-09-01

    Residual cardiovascular (CV) risk remains in dyslipidemic patients despite intensive statin therapy, underscoring the need for additional intervention. Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), an omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid, is incorporated into membrane phospholipids and atherosclerotic plaques and exerts beneficial effects on the pathophysiologic cascade from onset of plaque formation through rupture. Specific salutary actions have been reported relating to endothelial function, oxidative stress, foam cell formation, inflammation, plaque formation/progression, platelet aggregation, thrombus formation, and plaque rupture. EPA also improves atherogenic dyslipidemia characterized by reduction of triglycerides without raising low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Other beneficial effects of EPA include vasodilation, resulting in blood pressure reductions, as well as improved membrane fluidity. EPA's effects are at least additive to those of statins when given as adjunctive therapy. In this review, we present data supporting the biologic plausibility of EPA as an anti-atherosclerotic agent with potential clinical benefit for prevention of CV events, as well as its cellular effects and molecular mechanisms of action. REDUCE-IT is an ongoing, randomized, controlled study evaluating whether the high-purity ethyl ester of EPA (icosapent ethyl) at 4 g/day combined with statin therapy is superior to statin therapy alone for reducing CV events in high-risk patients with mixed dyslipidemia. The results from this study are expected to clarify the role of EPA as adjunctive therapy to a statin for reduction of residual CV risk.

  7. Mindfulness and Cardiovascular Disease Risk: State of the Evidence, Plausible Mechanisms, and Theoretical Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loucks, Eric B; Schuman-Olivier, Zev; Britton, Willoughby B; Fresco, David M; Desbordes, Gaelle; Brewer, Judson A; Fulwiler, Carl

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this review is to provide (1) a synopsis on relations of mindfulness with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major CVD risk factors, and (2) an initial consensus-based overview of mechanisms and theoretical framework by which mindfulness might influence CVD. Initial evidence, often of limited methodological quality, suggests possible impacts of mindfulness on CVD risk factors including physical activity, smoking, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and diabetes regulation. Plausible mechanisms include (1) improved attention control (e.g., ability to hold attention on experiences related to CVD risk, such as smoking, diet, physical activity, and medication adherence), (2) emotion regulation (e.g., improved stress response, self-efficacy, and skills to manage craving for cigarettes, palatable foods, and sedentary activities), and (3) self-awareness (e.g., self-referential processing and awareness of physical sensations due to CVD risk factors). Understanding mechanisms and theoretical framework should improve etiologic knowledge, providing customized mindfulness intervention targets that could enable greater mindfulness intervention efficacy.

  8. A plausible (overlooked) super-luminous supernova in the SDSS Stripe 82 data

    CERN Document Server

    Kostrzewa-Rutkowska, Zuzanna; Wyrzykowski, Lukasz; Djorgovski, S George; Glikman, Eilat; Mahabal, Ashish A

    2013-01-01

    We present the discovery of a plausible super-luminous supernova (SLSN), found in the archival data of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, called PSN 000123+000504. The supernova peaked at M_g<-21.3 mag in the second half of September 2005, but was missed by the real-time supernova hunt. The observed part of the light curve (17 epochs) showed that the rise to the maximum took over 30 days, while the decline time lasted at least 70 days (observed frame), closely resembling other SLSNe of SN2007bi type. Spectrum of the host galaxy reveals a redshift of z=0.281 and the distance modulus of \\mu=40.77 mag. Combining this information with the SDSS photometry, we found the host galaxy to be an LMC-like irregular dwarf galaxy with the absolute magnitude of M_B=-18.2+/-0.2 mag and the oxygen abundance of 12+log[O/H]=8.3+/-0.2. Our SLSN follows the relation for the most energetic/super-luminous SNe exploding in low-metallicity environments, but we found no clear evidence for SLSNe to explode in low-luminosity ...

  9. Event-based plausibility immediately influences on-line language comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuki, Kazunaga; Chow, Tracy; Hare, Mary; Elman, Jeffrey L; Scheepers, Christoph; McRae, Ken

    2011-07-01

    In some theories of sentence comprehension, linguistically relevant lexical knowledge, such as selectional restrictions, is privileged in terms of the time-course of its access and influence. We examined whether event knowledge computed by combining multiple concepts can rapidly influence language understanding even in the absence of selectional restriction violations. Specifically, we investigated whether instruments can combine with actions to influence comprehension of ensuing patients of (as in Rayner, Warren, Juhuasz, & Liversedge, 2004; Warren & McConnell, 2007). Instrument-verb-patient triplets were created in a norming study designed to tap directly into event knowledge. In self-paced reading (Experiment 1), participants were faster to read patient nouns, such as hair, when they were typical of the instrument-action pair (Donna used the shampoo to wash vs. the hose to wash). Experiment 2 showed that these results were not due to direct instrument-patient relations. Experiment 3 replicated Experiment 1 using eyetracking, with effects of event typicality observed in first fixation and gaze durations on the patient noun. This research demonstrates that conceptual event-based expectations are computed and used rapidly and dynamically during on-line language comprehension. We discuss relationships among plausibility and predictability, as well as their implications. We conclude that selectional restrictions may be best considered as event-based conceptual knowledge rather than lexical-grammatical knowledge.

  10. From ether to acid: A plausible degradation pathway of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao-Lei; Birgel, Daniel; Elling, Felix J.; Sutton, Paul A.; Lipp, Julius S.; Zhu, Rong; Zhang, Chuanlun; Könneke, Martin; Peckmann, Jörn; Rowland, Steven J.; Summons, Roger E.; Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe

    2016-06-01

    Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are ubiquitous microbial lipids with extensive demonstrated and potential roles as paleoenvironmental proxies. Despite the great attention they receive, comparatively little is known regarding their diagenetic fate. Putative degradation products of GDGTs, identified as hydroxyl and carboxyl derivatives, were detected in lipid extracts of marine sediment, seep carbonate, hot spring sediment and cells of the marine thaumarchaeon Nitrosopumilus maritimus. The distribution of GDGT degradation products in environmental samples suggests that both biotic and abiotic processes act as sinks for GDGTs. More than a hundred newly recognized degradation products afford a view of the stepwise degradation of GDGT via (1) ether bond hydrolysis yielding hydroxyl isoprenoids, namely, GDGTol (glycerol dialkyl glycerol triether alcohol), GMGD (glycerol monobiphytanyl glycerol diether), GDD (glycerol dibiphytanol diether), GMM (glycerol monobiphytanol monoether) and bpdiol (biphytanic diol); (2) oxidation of isoprenoidal alcohols into corresponding carboxyl derivatives and (3) chain shortening to yield C39 and smaller isoprenoids. This plausible GDGT degradation pathway from glycerol ethers to isoprenoidal fatty acids provides the link to commonly detected head-to-head linked long chain isoprenoidal hydrocarbons in petroleum and sediment samples. The problematic C80 to C82 tetraacids that cause naphthenate deposits in some oil production facilities can be generated from H-shaped glycerol monoalkyl glycerol tetraethers (GMGTs) following the same process, as indicated by the distribution of related derivatives in hydrothermally influenced sediments.

  11. Plausible molecular and crystal structures of chitosan/HI type II salt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lertworasirikul, Amornrat; Noguchi, Keiichi; Ogawa, Kozo; Okuyama, Kenji

    2004-03-15

    Chitosan/HI type II salt prepared from crab tendon was investigated by X-ray fiber diffraction. Two polymer chains and 16 iodide ions (I(-)) crystallized in a tetragonal unit cell with lattice parameters of a = b = 10.68(3), c (fiber axis) = 40.77(13) A, and a space group P4(1). Chitosan forms a fourfold helix with a 40.77 A fiber period having a disaccharide as the helical asymmetric unit. One of the O-3... O-5 intramolecular hydrogen bonds at the glycosidic linkage is weakened by interacting with iodide ions, which seems to cause the polymer to take the 4/1-helical symmetry rather than the extended 2/1-helix. The plausible orientations of two O-6 atoms in the helical asymmetric unit were found to be gt and gg. Two chains are running through at the corner and the center of the unit cell along the c-axis. They are linked by hydrogen bonds between N-21 and O-61 atoms. Two out of four independent iodide ions are packed between the corner chains while the other two are packed between the corner and center chains when viewing through the ab-plane. The crystal structure of the salt is stabilized by hydrogen bonds between these iodide ions and N-21, N-22, O-32, O-61, O-62 of the polymer chains.

  12. Solvent effects on the photochemistry of 4-aminoimidazole-5-carbonitrile, a prebiotically plausible precursor of purines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabla, Rafał; Sponer, Judit E; Sponer, Jiří; Sobolewski, Andrzej L; Góra, Robert W

    2014-09-01

    4-Aminoimidazole-5-carbonitrile (AICN) was suggested as a prebiotically plausible precursor of purine nucleobases and nucleotides. Although it can be formed in a sequence of photoreactions, AICN is immune to further irradiation with UV-light. We present state-of-the-art multi-reference quantum-chemical calculations of potential energy surface cuts and conical intersection optimizations to explain the molecular mechanisms underlying the photostability of this compound. We have identified the N-H bond stretching and ring-puckering mechanisms that should be responsible for the photochemistry of AICN in the gas phase. We have further considered the photochemistry of AICN-water clusters, while including up to six explicit water molecules. The calculations reveal charge transfer to solvent followed by formation of an H3O(+) cation, both of which occur on the (1)πσ* hypersurface. Interestingly, a second proton transfer to an adjacent water molecule leads to a (1)πσ*/S0 conical intersection. We suggest that this electron-driven proton relay might be characteristic of low-lying (1)πσ* states in chromophore-water clusters. Owing to its nature, this mechanism might also be responsible for the photostability of analogous organic molecules in bulk water.

  13. A biologically plausible learning rule for the Infomax on recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayakawa, Takashi; Kaneko, Takeshi; Aoyagi, Toshio

    2014-01-01

    A fundamental issue in neuroscience is to understand how neuronal circuits in the cerebral cortex play their functional roles through their characteristic firing activity. Several characteristics of spontaneous and sensory-evoked cortical activity have been reproduced by Infomax learning of neural networks in computational studies. There are, however, still few models of the underlying learning mechanisms that allow cortical circuits to maximize information and produce the characteristics of spontaneous and sensory-evoked cortical activity. In the present article, we derive a biologically plausible learning rule for the maximization of information retained through time in dynamics of simple recurrent neural networks. Applying the derived learning rule in a numerical simulation, we reproduce the characteristics of spontaneous and sensory-evoked cortical activity: cell-assembly-like repeats of precise firing sequences, neuronal avalanches, spontaneous replays of learned firing sequences and orientation selectivity observed in the primary visual cortex. We further discuss the similarity between the derived learning rule and the spike timing-dependent plasticity of cortical neurons.

  14. Plausible ergogenic effects of vitamin D on athletic performance and recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlquist, Dylan T; Dieter, Brad P; Koehle, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this review is to examine vitamin D in the context of sport nutrition and its potential role in optimizing athletic performance. Vitamin D receptors (VDR) and vitamin D response elements (VDREs) are located in almost every tissue within the human body including skeletal muscle. The hormonally-active form of vitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, has been shown to play critical roles in the human body and regulates over 900 gene variants. Based on the literature presented, it is plausible that vitamin D levels above the normal reference range (up to 100 nmol/L) might increase skeletal muscle function, decrease recovery time from training, increase both force and power production, and increase testosterone production, each of which could potentiate athletic performance. Therefore, maintaining higher levels of vitamin D could prove beneficial for athletic performance. Despite this situation, large portions of athletic populations are vitamin D deficient. Currently, the research is inconclusive with regards to the optimal intake of vitamin D, the specific forms of vitamin D one should ingest, and the distinct nutrient-nutrient interactions of vitamin D with vitamin K that affect arterial calcification and hypervitaminosis. Furthermore, it is possible that dosages exceeding the recommendations for vitamin D (i.e. dosages up to 4000-5000 IU/day), in combination with 50 to 1000 mcg/day of vitamin K1 and K2 could aid athletic performance. This review will investigate these topics, and specifically their relevance to athletic performance.

  15. A simple biophysically plausible model for long time constants in single neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiganj, Zoran; Hasselmo, Michael E; Howard, Marc W

    2015-01-01

    Recent work in computational neuroscience and cognitive psychology suggests that a set of cells that decay exponentially could be used to support memory for the time at which events took place. Analytically and through simulations on a biophysical model of an individual neuron, we demonstrate that exponentially decaying firing with a range of time constants up to minutes could be implemented using a simple combination of well-known neural mechanisms. In particular, we consider firing supported by calcium-controlled cation current. When the amount of calcium leaving the cell during an interspike interval is larger than the calcium influx during a spike, the overall decay in calcium concentration can be exponential, resulting in exponential decay of the firing rate. The time constant of the decay can be several orders of magnitude larger than the time constant of calcium clearance, and it could be controlled externally via a variety of biologically plausible ways. The ability to flexibly and rapidly control time constants could enable working memory of temporal history to be generalized to other variables in computing spatial and ordinal representations.

  16. A plausible mechanism of biosorption in dual symbioses by vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal in plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azmat, Rafia; Hamid, Neelofer

    2015-03-01

    Dual symbioses of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) fungi with growth of Momordica charantia were elucidated in terms of plausible mechanism of biosorption in this article. The experiment was conducted in green house and mixed inoculum of the VAM fungi was used in the three replicates. Results demonstrated that the starch contents were the main source of C for the VAM to builds their hyphae. The increased plant height and leaves surface area were explained in relation with an increase in the photosynthetic rates to produce rapid sugar contents for the survival of plants. A decreased in protein, and amino acid contents and increased proline and protease activity in VAM plants suggested that these contents were the main bio-indicators of the plants under biotic stress. The decline in protein may be due to the degradation of these contents, which later on converted into dextrose where it can easily be absorbed by for the period of symbioses. A mechanism of C chemisorption in relation with physiology and morphology of plant was discussed.

  17. Vitamin D in primary biliary cirrhosis, a plausible marker of advanced disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agmon-Levin, Nancy; Kopilov, Ron; Selmi, Carlo; Nussinovitch, Udi; Sánchez-Castañón, María; López-Hoyos, Marcos; Amital, Howie; Kivity, Shaye; Gershwin, Eric M; Shoenfeld, Yehuda

    2015-02-01

    Vitamin D immune-modulating effects were extensively studied, and low levels have been linked with autoimmune diseases. The associations of vitamin D with autoimmune diseases of the liver, and particularly primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), are yet to be defined. Hence, in this study, serum levels of vitamin D were determined in 79 patients with PBC and 70 age- and sex-matched controls by the LIAISON chemiluminescent immunoassays (DiaSorin-Italy). Clinical and serological parameters of patients were analyzed with respect to vitamin D status. Mean levels of vitamin D were significantly lower among patients with PBC compared with controls (16.8 ± 9 vs. 22.1 ± 9 ng/ml; p = 0.029), and vitamin D deficiency (≤10 ng/ml) was documented in 33% of patients with PBC versus 7% of controls (p plausible roles of vitamin D as a prognostic marker of PBC severity, and as a potential player in this disease pathogenesis. While further studies are awaited, monitoring vitamin D in patients with PBC and use of supplements may be advisable.

  18. Is the de Broglie-Bohm interpretation of quantum mechanics really plausible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kurt

    2013-06-01

    Bohmian mechanics also known as de Broglie-Bohm theory is the most popular alternative approach to quantum mechanics. Whereas the standard interpretation of quantum mechanics is based on the complementarity principle Bohmian mechanics assumes that both particle and wave are concrete physical objects. In 1993 Peter Holland has written an ardent account on the plausibility of the de Broglie-Bohm theory. He proved that it fully reproduces quantum mechanics if the initial particle distribution is consistent with a solution of the Schrödinger equation. Which may be the reasons that Bohmian mechanics has not yet found global acceptance? In this article it will be shown that predicted properties of atoms and molecules are in conflict with experimental findings. Moreover it will be demonstrated that repeatedly published ensembles of trajectories illustrating double slit diffraction processes do not agree with quantum mechanics. The credibility of a theory is undermined when recognizably wrong data presented frequently over years are finally not declared obsolete.

  19. Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN; Yaning; XU; Zongxue

    2005-01-01

    Combining the temperature and precipitation data from 77 climatological stations and the climatic and hydrological change data from three headstreams of the Tarim River: Hotan, Yarkant, and Aksu in the study area, the plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin in recent years was investigated, the long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow was detected, and the possible association between the El Ni(n)o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series was tested. The results obtained in this study show that during the past years, the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the speed of 5%, nearly 1℃ rise; the precipitation showed a significant decrease in the 1970s, and a significant increase in the1980s and 1990s, the average annual precipitation was increased with the magnitude of 6.8 mm per decade. A step change occurred in both temperature and precipitation time series around 1986, which may be influenced by the global climate change. Climate change resulted in the increase of the streamflow at the headwater of the Tarim River, but the anthropogenic activities such as over-depletion of the surface water resulted in the decrease of the streamflow at the lower reaches of the Tarim River. The study result also showed that there is no significant association between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow.

  20. Democracy predicts sport and recreation membership: Insights from 52 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balish, Shea M

    2017-03-01

    Although evidence suggests sport and recreation are powerful contributors to worldwide public health, sizable gender differences persist. It is unknown whether country characteristics moderate gender differences across countries. The primary purpose of this study was to examine if countries' levels of democracy and/or gender inequality moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. The secondary purpose was to examine if democracy and/or gender inequality predicts overall rates of sport and recreation membership for both males and females. This study involved a nested cross-sectional design and employed the sixth wave (2013) of the world value survey (nSs=71,901, ncountries=52). Multiple hierarchal nonlinear Bernoulli models tested: (1) if countries' levels of democracy moderate gender differences in sport and recreation membership; and (2) if democracy is associated with increased sport and recreation membership for both males and females. Countries' level of democracy fully moderated gender differences in sport and recreation membership across countries. Moreover, democracy was positively associated with both male and female membership, even when controlling for individual and country-level covariates. Democratic political regimes may confer health benefits via increased levels of sport and recreation membership, especially for females. Future research should test mediating mechanisms.

  1. Sustainability of Three Recreational Forest Landscape Management in Selangor, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Kher Hussein

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Different stakeholders managed recreational forests in Selangor, Malaysia. These stakeholders' involvements have risen a question whether their development have fulfilled the sustainable landscape requirement. The aim of this study was to understand and generate more comprehensive knowledge on the recreational forest landscape management towards forest sustainability. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the management of recreational forest in Selangor, Malaysia that affect landscape sustainability and to gain an overview of recreational forest landscape development in Peninsular Malaysia. The study applies three methods. First is the analysis of documents relating to sustainable landscape concept. Secondly, through case studies where three recreational forest sites in Selangor were selected to analyze their management practices towards landscape sustainability. Thirdly, field observations were carried out to collect data about existing physical conditions of the study sites. The results revealed that landscape management of these recreational forests were not in accordance with landscape sustainability approaches and needs improvement. This was caused by improper planning, low understanding among the staffs regarding sustainable landscape management, shortage of knowledgeable personnel, and poor supervision. Failure to adopt and implement sustainable landscape practices which include environment protection, social improvements, good governance, aesthetics enhancement, economy benefits, and harmonized designs can lead to the increase in the 'abandon syndrome' of some recreational forest sites in Peninsular Malaysia.

  2. Untemplated nonenzymatic polymerization of 3',5'cGMP: a plausible route to 3',5'-linked oligonucleotides in primordia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šponer, Judit E; Šponer, Jiří; Giorgi, Alessandra; Di Mauro, Ernesto; Pino, Samanta; Costanzo, Giovanna

    2015-02-19

    The high-energy 3',5' phosphodiester linkages conserved in 3',5' cyclic GMPs offer a genuine solution for monomer activation required by the transphosphorylation reactions that could lead to the emergence of the first simple oligonucleotide sequences on the early Earth. In this work we provide an in-depth characterization of the effect of the reaction conditions on the yield of the polymerization reaction of 3',5' cyclic GMPs both in aqueous environment as well as under dehydrating conditions. We show that the threshold temperature of the polymerization is about 30 °C lower under dehydrating conditions than in solution. In addition, we present a plausible exergonic reaction pathway for the polymerization reaction, which involves transient formation of anionic centers at the O3' positions of the participating riboses. We suggest that excess Na(+) cations inhibit the polymerization reaction because they block the anionic mechanism via neutralizing the negatively charged O3'. Our experimental findings are compatible with a prebiotic scenario, where gradual desiccation of the environment could induce polymerization of 3',5' cyclic GMPs synthesized in liquid.

  3. Physical-recreational activities and persons with disability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potić Srećko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recreational activities represent individual or organized group activities chosen by free will, which help individuals to maintain good health, physical and working condition. In addition to the required physical segment, recreation also includes mental component which refers to strengthening of the will and determination, acquisition and development of self-control. With physical and mental aspect of recreational activities, many authors especially emphasize the importance of socio-psychological component of recreation. The aim of this paper is to review the so far published scientific and professional works in which the problem of recreational activities of persons with cerebral palsy, sight impairment, intellectual disability and autism is discussed, by studying the available literature. During the research we used the electronic data base of Serbian Library Consortium for Coordinated Acquisition, Google Scholar, as well as published material available in print. The participation of persons with disabilities in physical-recreational activities in the community is determined by the individual characteristics of the person, but with the community factors as well. The results of many studies show that persons with disabilities participate less in leisure and physical recreational activities and that is largely related to the level of social integration of these persons. Taking into account the fact that the participation of persons with disabilities in physical-recreational activities largely correlates with the quality of life of these persons, it is necessary to increase the number of recreational services that the community offers, as well as to specialise, modify and adapt some of them in relation to the needs of these persons. Also, it is recommended that as an integral part of all therapeutic approaches to persons with disability, the training of these persons for the appropriate use of their leisure time be included.

  4. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are discussed: the limits to growth (the great tragedy and demise); sustainable development and ecological modernization (hope and innovation); and the Anthrop...

  5. Modeling Zinc Intake for Intervention and Scenario Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, Nazanin; Amini, Manouchehr; Hurrell, Richard; Schulin, Rainer

    2015-06-01

    A large number of illnesses, afflicting one-third of the world's population, have been attributed to zinc deficiency. Inadequate dietary intake of bioavailable forms of zinc is considered the most frequent cause of zinc deficiency, which is most common in arid regions of developing countries. To employ a modeling approach in a test population to analyze how best to eliminate zinc deficiency using different plausible dietary scenarios. A comprehensive database was built upon food consumption patterns of two population groups residing in a village and a suburb in semiarid central Iran near Isfahan city. A database was created on zinc and phytic acid concentrations of different foods and ingredients consumed by the study populations. A zinc intake model was constructed and parameterized accounting for bioavailability and model input uncertainties. The zinc intake of about one-third of both study populations, which did not differ significantly in their rates of zinc deficiency, was below the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) for zinc. Scenario analyses predicted that at the current rate of food consumption, it would take up to 60 years for 97.5% of the population to meet their zinc EARs. Fortification of wheat flour and biofortification of wheat grains would result in 93% and 88% of the population, respectively, achieving their EARs in 15 years. The modeled results suggest that fortification and biofortification are the most effective and sustainable strategies to combat zinc deficiency. The methodology developed in this study is general and is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of possible future trends and intervention scenarios. © The Author(s) 2015.

  6. Recreative sports in preventing child and youth crime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Yaman

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to be able to make it clear that recreation serves as a buffer in preventing crime; recreational sports having a special place for young people in juvenile delinuency have an important place; and recreational activities that will be practised in the regions committing intense crime reduce the rate of crimes; but most importantly, sports recreation serves as a buffer for children and young people particularly in preventing the individuals from crime even before they commit.While legally criminal corresponding activities and conradictions to social values are accepted as crime, research shows that criminal tendency mostly centres around youth. When young population over 26 million is regarded, the issue comes out to be such important for Turkey.Juvenile delinquency shows an increasing tendency all over the world; however, Turkey remains at the head of the world with forty percent. Security General Directorate data shows that in 2006 there were 31.761 thinner and baly addicted young; aged 30 and below composed the fifty percent of drug addicted individuals, ranging 57 percent between 15 and 24 aged; smoking start age decreased to the age of 9-10 and alcohol drinking start age fell to the age of 12-14. According to the the report of Substance Research and Treatment Centre, volatile substance start age is 11-12, drug start age is 16-17 and heroin start age is 18-19.When the research is examined, it is admitted that many countries use recreation as a buffer to reduce the rates and also prevent juvenile delinquency in the regions experiencing intense crime and that pretty good results and recoveries ranging to 90 percent are obtained from the applications.Recreational activity in great demand among the young is generally sports. Recreational sports is used as a means of crime prevention. Research suggests that pursuit of recreational sports tends to deter the young from participation in crime. Crime rates decrease in the

  7. Recreative sports in preventing child and youth crime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Yaman

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to be able to make it clear that recreation serves as a buffer in preventing crime; recreational sports having a special place for young people in juvenile delinuency have an important place; and recreational activities that will be practised in the regions committing intense crime reduce the rate of crimes; but most importantly, sports recreation serves as a buffer for children and young people particularly in preventing the individuals from crime even before they commit.While legally criminal corresponding activities and conradictions to social values are accepted as crime, research shows that criminal tendency mostly centres around youth. When young population over 26 million is regarded, the issue comes out to be such important for Turkey.Juvenile delinquency shows an increasing tendency all over the world; however, Turkey remains at the head of the world with forty percent. Security General Directorate data shows that in 2006 there were 31.761 thinner and baly addicted young; aged 30 and below composed the fifty percent of drug addicted individuals, ranging 57 percent between 15 and 24 aged; smoking start age decreased to the age of 9-10 and alcohol drinking start age fell to the age of 12-14. According to the the report of Substance Research and Treatment Centre, volatile substance start age is 11-12, drug start age is 16-17 and heroin start age is 18-19. When the research is examined, it is admitted that many countries use recreation as a buffer to reduce the rates and also prevent juvenile delinquency in the regions experiencing intense crime and that pretty good results and recoveries ranging to 90 percent are obtained from the applications.Recreational activity in great demand among the young is generally sports. Recreational sports is used as a means of crime prevention. Research suggests that pursuit of recreational sports tends to deter the young from participation in crime. Crime rates decrease in the

  8. Contested identities: Identity constructions in a youth recreational drug culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Signe

    2012-01-01

    as responsible drug users. The article studies this recreational drug culture and its internal distinctions, conceptions and norms as they are expressed discursively. The analysis identifies six dimensions of the identity as a responsible, recreational drug user: drug practice, general drug knowledge, context......-specific drug knowledge, practices for checking drugs, acknowledging one’s position in the surrounding drug scene and age. The analysis shows how being able to perform a coherent identity in line with these dimensions is necessary for being acknowledged as a responsible, recreational drug user....

  9. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  10. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  11. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  12. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  13. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  14. Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, E. S.; French, R. L.; Hirshberg, A. S.

    1976-01-01

    Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market.

  15. Cultural group selection is plausible, but the predictions of its hypotheses should be tested with real-world data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchin, Peter; Currie, Thomas E

    2016-01-01

    The evidence compiled in the target article demonstrates that the assumptions of cultural group selection (CGS) theory are often met, and it is therefore a useful framework for generating plausible hypotheses. However, more can be said about how we can test the predictions of CGS hypotheses against competing explanations using historical, archaeological, and anthropological data.

  16. Identifying and reducing potentially wrong immunoassay results even when plausible and "not-unreasonable".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Adel A A

    2014-01-01

    The primary role of the clinical laboratory is to report accurate results for diagnosis of disease and management of illnesses. This goal has, to a large extent been achieved for routine biochemical tests, but not for immunoassays which remained susceptible to interference from endogenous immunoglobulin antibodies, causing false, and clinically misleading results. Clinicians regard all abnormal results including false ones as "pathological" necessitating further investigations, or concluding iniquitous diagnosis. Even more seriously, "false-negative" results may wrongly exclude pathology, thus denying patients' necessary treatment. Analytical error rate in immunoassays is relatively high, ranging from 0.4% to 4.0%. Because analytical interference from endogenous antibodies is confined to individuals' sera, it can be inconspicuous, pernicious, sporadic, and insidious because it cannot be detected by internal or external quality assessment procedures. An approach based on Bayesian reasoning can enhance the robustness of clinical validation in highlighting potentially erroneous immunoassay results. When this rational clinical/statistical approach is followed by analytical affirmative follow-up tests, it can help identifying inaccurate and clinically misleading immunoassay data even when they appear plausible and "not-unreasonable." This chapter is largely based on peer reviewed articles associated with and related to this approach. The first section underlines (without mathematical equations) the dominance and misuse of conventional statistics and the underuse of Bayesian paradigm and shows that laboratorians are intuitively (albeit unwittingly) practicing Bayesians. Secondly, because interference from endogenous antibodies is method's dependent (with numerous formats and different reagents), it is almost impossible to accurately assess its incidence in all differently formulated immunoassays and for each analytes/biomarkers. However, reiterating the basic concepts

  17. Bio-physically plausible visualization of highly scattering fluorescent neocortical models for in silico experimentation

    KAUST Repository

    Abdellah, Marwan

    2017-02-15

    Background We present a visualization pipeline capable of accurate rendering of highly scattering fluorescent neocortical neuronal models. The pipeline is mainly developed to serve the computational neurobiology community. It allows the scientists to visualize the results of their virtual experiments that are performed in computer simulations, or in silico. The impact of the presented pipeline opens novel avenues for assisting the neuroscientists to build biologically accurate models of the brain. These models result from computer simulations of physical experiments that use fluorescence imaging to understand the structural and functional aspects of the brain. Due to the limited capabilities of the current visualization workflows to handle fluorescent volumetric datasets, we propose a physically-based optical model that can accurately simulate light interaction with fluorescent-tagged scattering media based on the basic principles of geometric optics and Monte Carlo path tracing. We also develop an automated and efficient framework for generating dense fluorescent tissue blocks from a neocortical column model that is composed of approximately 31000 neurons. Results Our pipeline is used to visualize a virtual fluorescent tissue block of 50 μm3 that is reconstructed from the somatosensory cortex of juvenile rat. The fluorescence optical model is qualitatively analyzed and validated against experimental emission spectra of different fluorescent dyes from the Alexa Fluor family. Conclusion We discussed a scientific visualization pipeline for creating images of synthetic neocortical neuronal models that are tagged virtually with fluorescent labels on a physically-plausible basis. The pipeline is applied to analyze and validate simulation data generated from neuroscientific in silico experiments.

  18. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  19. Preserving the collective memory and re-creating identity through animation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carpe Pérez, Inmaculada Concepción; Pedersen, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Since the beginning of history storytelling has been the medium to convey ideas, express feelings and pass information from one generation to another. Stories, lessons encrypted as powerful metaphors found in the Norse or Greek myths; past experiences or futuristic visions printed on textiles...... storytelling as a means to reflect on the re-construction of the identity through animation; understanding the self, as our identity, our history. It’s about how we see our own story; everything starts with perception (Beau Lotto, 2013). Currently it’s not very common to conceive animation as a communication...... of the autobiographic memory and documentary through animation techniques. When we produce an animated film, we can appreciate how the creation of characters and scenarios are transformed into visual metaphors, making possible the re-creation of past moments or the simulation of possible ones. We experience, thanks...

  20. Problem Solving: Tools and Techniques for the Park and Recreation Administrator. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Margaret L.; Heyne, Linda A.; Busser, James A.

    2005-01-01

    This book is a useful tool for recreation educators in carrying out their responsibilities for preparing the next generation for effective service in recreation and parks. The need for this book is apparent, because few recreation curricula include courses in problem solving. It is true that many texts dealing with recreation describe policies and…

  1. National forest visitor spending averages and the influence of trip-type and recreation activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric M. White; Daniel I. Stynes

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of national forest recreation visitor spending serve us inputs to regional economic analyses and help to identify the economic linkages between national forest recreation use and local forest communities. When completing recreation-related analyses, managers, planners, and researchers frequently think of visitors in terms of recreation activity. When...

  2. Microbial safety assessment of recreation water at Lake Nabugabo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJIRO

    Key words: Lake Nabugabo, microbial safety assessment, recreation water, water quality. INTRODUCTION .... bacteria of faecal origin. Lake Nabugabo ..... Waters of Tanzania. J. Biol. Life Sci. 4: 63-82. Ogutu-Ohwayo R (2002). The Effects of ...

  3. Recreational Fishing Plan : Cypress Creek National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is the Recreational Fishing Plan for Cypress Creek NWR. The Plan provides an introduction to the Refuge, information about conformance with statutory...

  4. Beyond Screen Time: Assessing Recreational Sedentary Behavior among Adolescent Girls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine W. Bauer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Most studies of sedentary behavior have focused on television use or screen time. This study aims to examine adolescent girls' participation in a variety of recreational sedentary behaviors (e.g., talking on the phone and hanging around, and their association with physical activity (PA, dietary behaviors, and body mass index. Data were from a sample of 283 adolescent girls. Recreational sedentary behavior, PA, and dietary behaviors were self-reported, and girls' height and weight were measured. Over 95% of girls engaged in at least one recreational sedentary behavior during the recall period. Watching television and hanging around were the most common behaviors. Watching television, using the Internet, and hanging around were associated with less PA; watching television, hanging around, and talking on the phone were associated with less healthful dietary behaviors. No associations were found with body mass index. Interventions may benefit from capitalizing on and intervening upon girls' common recreational sedentary behaviors.

  5. Pollution of some recreation beaches of Mumbai, Maharashtra

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ingole, S.A.; Kadam, A.N.

    of Mumbai (Figure 1). It was therefore feared that they might have polluted the recreation beaches causing deleterious effects to the human health. Some such effects are known to be skin irritations, gastrointestinal diseases, transmission of typhoid...

  6. Northeast Groundfish Recreational Fishing Demand Survey (ME, MA, NH)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in conjunction with NMFS’ Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) along the coastal states...

  7. Chronic recreational physical inactivity and epithelial ovarian cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cannioto, Rikki; LaMonte, Michael J.; Risch, Harvey A

    2016-01-01

    . We conducted a pooled analysis of nine studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium to investigate the association between chronic recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk. Methods: In accordance with the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, women reporting no regular......Background: Despite a large body of literature evaluating the association between recreational physical activity and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk, the extant evidence is inconclusive, and little is known about the independent association between recreational physical inactivity and EOC risk......, weekly recreational physical activity were classified as inactive. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to estimate the ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between inactivity and EOC risk overall and by subgroups based upon histotype, menopausal status, race, and body mass...

  8. Locating opportunities for outdoor action and adventure recreation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The research overviews spatial recreation and tourism development policy, marketing and express outdoor recreationist and tourist preferences that translate into spatial suitability indicators or attraction features captured in a spatial resource ...

  9. Backcountry Sites at Curecanti National Recreation Area, Colorado

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Park Service, Department of the Interior — This is a polygon coverage showing the backcountry sites in and around Curecanti National Recreation Area (CURE). The coordinates for this dataset were heads up...

  10. Northeast Groundfish Recreational demand survey of anglers, ME through NJ

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Stated preference choice experiment data were collected in conjunction with NMFS’ Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) along the coastal states of...

  11. Puget Sound Recreational Shellfish Harvesting Survey - Model Intended Angler Behavior

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collect and analyze survey data from recreational saltwater fishermen in Oregon and Washington. Model trip demand using stated frequency / contingent behavior data....

  12. Non-hemodynamic predictors of blood pressure in recreational sport ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Non-hemodynamic predictors of blood pressure in recreational sport practitioners in ... that regular physical activity is an efficient means to control high blood pressure. ... structures can be effective in managing hemodynamic health problems.

  13. Culture of the Recreation, Democracy and Political Conscience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alixon Reyes

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Recreation is a universal cultural and intangible patrimony. Besides, it has to do with all those experiences lived and felt by a human being while a transformation takes place towards it that he wishes, needs and gasps. But, the recreation has been confused with entertainment and amusement, elements that form a way of being and a way of thinking producing a cultural emptying of the recreation turning it into a banal and instrumental matter. And do not think that this is neutral and innocent. On the contrary, it is a trend that marks the fingerprint of a neocoloniality. This way, the recreation is done, is bought and sold, is programmed and is planned, offers to the measurement the one who can buy it and the one who can pay it, leaving of side the experience humanizes as vital point.

  14. Investment Appeal of the Recreational Potential of the Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galanina, T. V.; Mikhailov, V. G.; Golofastova, N. N.; Koroleva, T. G.

    2017-01-01

    The article deals with the issue of environmental and economic assessment of natural and recreational potential of Kuzbass. The purpose of the research is to study the trends in the development of the regional recreational potential, as well as to develop the methodological bases for creation of resort and recreational areas to improve the health of the population and increase the investment appeal of Kemerovo region. The constraints to improve the investment, environmental and economic performance of regional resorts are identified. The main result of the research is the development of the project to improve the stability of the socio-economic system of the region, on the basis of the mitigation of environmental and economic risks and the systematic development of recreational infrastructure. The practical significance of the study consists of the recommendations for regional and federal authorities concerning the development of socio-economic plans and forecasts, including the provision of a rationale for the status of priority development territories.

  15. The Physiological Profile Of Male Competitive And Recreational Surfers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furness, James; Hing, Wayne; Sheppard, Jeremy M; Newcomer, Sean; Schram, Ben; Climstein, Mike

    2016-08-31

    Surfing consists of both high and low intensity paddling of varying durations, utilizing both the aerobic and anaerobic systems. Surf specific physiological studies lack adequate group sample sizes and VO2peak values are yet to determine differences between competitive and recreational surfers. The purpose of this study was therefore to provide a comprehensive physiological profile of both recreational and competitive surfers. This multi-site study involved 62 male surfers, recreational (n = 47) and competitive (n = 15). Anthropometric measurements were conducted followed by DEXA, anaerobic testing and finally aerobic testing. VO2peak was significantly greater in competitive compared to recreational surfers (M = 40.71 ± 3.28 vs. 31.25 ± 6.31 ml/kg/min, p strengths. Coaches and clinicians could then select appropriate training regimes to address weaknesses.

  16. Kinathropometric profile of recreational taekwondo athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Chan

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to profile recreational taekwondo athletes in terms of somatotpye and body composition. Subjects (10 males and 10 females were recruited from local taekwondo clubs in London, UK. Measurements taken included height, weight, girths, breadths and skinfold thicknesses at 6 sites. Body composition was expressed in terms of reverse ponderal index (RPI, sum of skinfolds as well as proportional weight and proportional sum of skinfolds. The data were analyzed by T-tests with a Dunn-Sidak-adjusted alpha. Although no difference was found in somatotype attitudinal distance (SAD (P>0.05, the women had a higher endomorphy (6.3±1.5 rating than the men (4.2±1.1 (t=-3.485, P=0.011. No differences were found in the meso- and ectomorphy components (P>0.05. There was no difference in RPI, indicating that the women did not carry more weight for height. However, the females (135.8±34.9 mm had a significantly higher absolute sum of six skinfolds than the males (77.0±23.2 mm (P=0.002 even when scaled to Phantom height (68.7±8.3 mm and 62.3±5.7 mm for women and men, respectively (P<0.001. Comparisons with elite taekwondo athletes seem to suggest that sexual dimorphism in somatotype and body composition is apparent regardless of competition level.

  17. Recreating Galileo's 1609 Discovery of Lunar Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasachoff, Jay M.; Needham, Paul S.; Wright, Ernest T.; Gingerich, Owen

    2014-11-01

    The question of exactly which lunar features persuaded Galileo that there were mountains on the moon has not yet been definitively answered; Galileo was famously more interested in the concepts rather than the topographic mapping in his drawings and the eventual engravings. Since the pioneering work of Ewen Whitaker on trying to identify which specific lunar-terminator features were those that Galileo identified as mountains on the moon in his 1609 observations reported in his Sidereus Nuncius (Venice, 1610), and since the important work on the sequence of Galileo's observations by Owen Gingerich (see "The Mystery of the Missing 2" in Galilaeana IX, 2010, in which he concludes that "the Florentine bifolium sheet [with Galileo's watercolor images] is Galileo's source for the reworked lunar diagrams in Sidereus Nuncius"), there have been advances in lunar topographical measurements that should advance the discussion. In particular, one of us (E.T.W.) at the Scientific Visualization Studio of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has used laser-topography from NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to recreate what Galileo would have seen over a sequence of dates in late November and early December 1609, and provided animations both at native resolution and at the degraded resolution that Galileo would have observed with his telescope. The Japanese Kaguya spacecraft also provides modern laser-mapped topographical maps.

  18. Social Capital in an Outdoor Recreation Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Marilynne; Leahy, Jessica

    2010-02-01

    This study examined social capital development in three all-terrain vehicles (ATV) clubs in Maine using an adapted version of Lin’s (2001) social capital theory model. The structural components of social capital identified included collective assets and individual assets in the form of normative behavior and trust relationships. Also identified were counter-norms for individual ATV riders identified as having divergent norms from club members. The second component of social capital is access to and mobilization of network contacts and resources. Access networks in the context of the ATV clubs studied were identified as community and landowner relations while mobilization of resources was existent in club membership attempts toward self-governance and efforts of the statewide “umbrella” organization. Instrumental outcomes benefit society and expressive outcomes benefit the individual. Both types of returns are present in the data suggesting that ATV clubs are creating social capital. This is important information to clubs who desire to market themselves, improve their reputations, and enhance their volunteer association. It is of further interest to state governments who fund clubs through trail grants as proof that a return on investment is being realized. Theoretical and applied implications for these and other types of recreation-based volunteer associations (e.g., clubs, friends groups, advocacy groups) are presented.

  19. Human brain disease recreated in mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marx, J.

    1990-12-14

    In the early 1980s, neurologist Stanley Prusiner suggested that scrapie, an apparently infectious degenerative brain disease of sheep, could be transmitted by prions, infectious particles made just of protein - and containing no nucleic acids. But prion research has come a long way since then. In 1985, the cloning of the gene encoding the prion protein proved that it does in fact exist. And the gene turned out to be widely expressed in the brains of higher organisms, a result suggesting that the prion protein has a normal brain function that can somehow be subverted, leading to brain degeneration. Then studies done during the past 2 years suggested that specific mutations in the prion gene might cause two similar human brain diseases, Gerstmann-Straeussler-Scheinker syndrome (GSS) and Creutzfelt-Jakob disease. Now, Prusiner's group at the University of California, San Francisco, has used genetic engineering techniques to recreate GSS by transplanting the mutated prion gene into mice. Not only will the animal model help neurobiologists answer the many remaining questions about prions and how they work, but it may also shed some light on other neurodegenerative diseases as well.

  20. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  1. Effects of Climate Change on White-Water Recreation on the Salmon River, Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, K. E.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2008-12-01

    White-water recreation on the Salmon River generates tens of millions of dollars each summer for central Idaho's economy. This tourism revenue is highly dependent on a healthy snowpack melting throughout the summer to meet minimum streamflow requirements for the rafting industry. A number of previous studies have shown that in a warming climate this vital snowpack will diminish and so will summer streamflows. In areas such as the Middle Fork of the Salmon River this will result in less streamflow in July and August, which are the critical months for the rafting industry. Current estimates approximate that eight percent of scheduled trips are canceled due to low summer streamflows. In this study we project future impacts to white-water recreation in the Salmon River basin, associated with an ensemble of climate change scenarios. The University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group has statistically downscaled 20 GCMs A1B and B1 climate change scenarios from the IPCC 2007 Report. We use these forcings to run the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface model to determine future streamflows for the Pacific Northwest. To verify the likelihood of non-boatable days in the future due to low summer streamflows, we compare this suite of projected results for the Salmon River streamflow to historical streamflows for the Middle Fork and Main Fork Salmon. Preliminary analysis shows a two degree Celsius increase could result in a twenty-five percent cancellation of future Middle Fork trips as a result of low summer streamflows. On the Middle Fork section alone this translates into a two million dollar loss in annual revenue generation for the rafting industry, with impacts stretching deeper into the economy. We also discuss additional costs to the users, the tourist economy and potential analysis for other river systems.

  2. Recreational football as a health promoting activity: a topical review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krustrup, Peter; Aagaard, Per; Nybo, Lars

    2010-01-01

    -intensity continuous running and strength training. Further, recreational football training enhances fat oxidation during exercise and results in a higher fat loss than interval training and strength training, and results in marked muscle hypertrophy and elevates bone mass, more than interval and continuous running...... on muscles and bones. Recreational football training in untrained men results in marked improvements in maximum aerobic power, blood pressure, muscle capillarization and intermittent exercise performance, and those effects are similar to interval training and more pronounced than moderate...

  3. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  4. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  5. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  6. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  7. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  8. Recreation in Different Forest Settings: A Scene Preference Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olof Olsson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Recreation activity preferences in forest settings were explored in a scene preference study. The importance of type of human intervention and the level of biodiversity for preference and intention to engage in recreation activities were examined in a sample of forestry and social science students in Sweden. Results showed that forestry students displayed an almost equally strong preference for natural-looking scenes as for scenes with traces of recreation (e.g., paths, whereas social science students preferred recreational scenes the most. Least preferred were scenes with traces of forest management. Different forest settings were furthermore preferred for different recreation activities. Recreational settings were favored for walking and going on outings, and natural-looking settings were more appreciated for picking berries or mushrooms. Respondents displayed a stronger intention to study plants and animals in high biodiversity settings and the intention to exercise was stronger in low biodiversity settings. Implications for future land use planning and forest management are discussed.

  9. Assessing the recreational demand for agricultural land in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. POUTA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available It is widely assumed that the scenic attractiveness and other public good aspects of agricultural land can be utilized as a source of livelihood in rural areas in the form of recreation and tourism. In this study we use two approaches to consider whether agricultural landscapes are preferred as a destination for recreation (day trips and rural tourism (overnight trips. We first analyse the choice of recreation site type based on a model that aggregates sites using the presence of agricultural land as an aggregation variable. Population survey data on recreation trips reveal an association between the respondent’s living environment, recreational activities and visit characteristics and the probability of choosing a destination with agricultural land. Second, we also estimate the demand functions for trips to agricultural sites and other destination types to consider whether the presence of agricultural land, as opposed to other land use categories, increases the number of trips and the benefits of recreation. The results suggest that agricultural landscapes are inferior to alternative site types in terms of per-trip benefits. However, agricultural landscapes are associated with high annual benefits because of the high rate of visitation.;

  10. Who Enters Campus Recreation Facilities: A Demographic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Rohe Milton

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to examine student entry into a campus recreation center based on seven demographics (gender, ethnicity, age, class standing, intercollegiate athlete vs. non-athlete, students with self-reported disability vs. non-disability, and campus residence in order to determine who would be most likely to enter the recreation center. Subjects were from a mid-western, four year state-assisted institution with combined enrollment of 23,932 undergraduate and graduate students. Of the 23,932 enrolled, 14,032 students were examined in this study. Information on student entry to the recreation center was collected through the university’s student information system. Data was analyzed and interpreted using chi-square analysis. Results of the study show statistically significant differences in the demographics except the student disability demographic. More males than females, more African Americans than other ethnicities, more traditionally aged (18-25 students than non-traditional students, more underclassmen than seniors, more athletes and non-athletes, more residents than commuters were likely to enter the campus recreation center. The findings in this study could be used by collegiate recreational sport directors and administrators, in the United States and internationally, for future ideas about programming in similar recreation settings.

  11. 75 FR 33763 - Notice of Proposed New Recreation Fee Sites; Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act (Title VIII...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-15

    ... access more than 15 miles of designated horse trails from this campground. The Forest Service proposes to... amenities to be added to enhance the recreational experience. Comparable fees for similar facilities...

  12. Plausible antioxidant biomechanics and anticonvulsant pharmacological activity of brain-targeted β-carotene nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, Mohammad; Khan, Riaz A; Khan, Maria; Ahmed, Bahar

    2012-01-01

    increased in P-80-BCNP to 231.0 ± 16.30 seconds, as compared to PTZ (120.10 ± 4.50 seconds) and placebo control (120.30 ± 7.4 seconds). The results of this study demonstrate a plausible novel anticonvulsant activity of β-carotene at a low dose of 2 mg/kg, with brain-targeted nanodelivery, thus increasing its bioavailability and stability.

  13. Plausibility check of a redesigned rain-on-snow simulator (RASA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rössler, Ole; Probst, Sabine; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    Rain-on-snow events are fascinating but still not completely understood processes. Although, several studies and equations have been published since decades that describe past events and theoretical descriptions, empirical data of what is happening in the snow cover is far less available. A way to fill this gap of empirical data, rain-on-snow-simulators might be of help. In 2013, Juras et al. published their inspiring idea of a portable rain-on-snow simulator. The huge advantage of this devise - in contrast to other purely field-based experiments - are their fixed, and mostly standardized conditions and the possibility to measure all required data to monitor the water fluxes and melting processes at a time. Mounted in a convenient location, a large number of experiments are relatively easy conductible. We applied and further developed the original device and plausified the results of this redesigned version, called RASA. The principal design was borrowed from the original version being a frame with a sprinkler on top and a snow sample in a box at the bottom, from which the outflow is measured with a tipping gauge. We added a moving sprinkling plate to ensure a uniform distribution of raindrops on the snow, and - most importantly - we suspended the watered snow sampled on weighting cells. The latter enables to continuous measurement of the snow sample throughout the experiment and thus the indirect quantification of liquid water saturation, water holding capacity, and snowmelt amount via balance equations. As it is remains unclear if this device is capable to reproduce known processes, a hypothesis based plausibility check was accomplished. Thus, eight hypothesizes were derived from literature and tested in 28 experiments with the RASA mounted at 2000 m elevation. In general, we were able to reproduce most of the hypotheses. The RASA proved to be a very valuable device that can generate suitable results and has the potential to extend the empirical-experimental data

  14. Exploring apposite therapeutic target for apoptosis in filarial parasite: a plausible hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hande, Sneha; Goswami, Kalyan; Jena, Lingaraj; Reddy, Maryada Venkata Rami

    2014-03-01

    Human lymphatic filariasis is a parasitic disease with profound socioeconomic encumbrance owing to its associated disability, affecting predominantly but not limited to the developing nations of tropics and subtropics. There are several technical issues like poor therapeutic and preventive repertoire as well as administrative and infrastructural limitations which jeopardize the salvage measures and further complicate the plight. Therefore, considering the gravity of the problem, WHO has mandated (under tropical disease research scheme) for placing emphasis on validation of novel therapeutic targets against this disease with the unfortunate tag of 'neglected tropical disease'. However, dearth of knowledge of parasite biology viciously coupled with difficulty of access to parasitic material from suitable animal model along with growing cost burden of high end research poses formidable challenge. Based on the recent research evidences, here we propose a premise with targeted apoptotic impact as a novel rationale to be exploited towards anti-parasitic drug development. The new era of bioinformatics ushers in new optimism with a wide range of genomic and proteomic database in public domain. Such platform might offer wonders for drug research, but needs highly selective criterion specificity. In order to test our hypothesis presumptively, we deployed a scheme for identification of target proteins from filarial parasitic origin through wide database search with precise criteria of non-homology against the host along with functional essentiality for the parasite. Further screening for proteins with growth potential from such list of essential non-homologous proteins was undertaken to mine out suitable representative target for ensuing apoptotic impact though effective inhibitors. A unique protein enzyme, RNA dependent RNA polymerase, which besides its vital role in RNA virus is believed to have regulatory role in gene expression, emerged as a plausible target. This protein

  15. Lead-induced SCC of alloy 600 in plausible steam generator crevice environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, M.D. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada); Manolescu, A. [Ontario Hydro Technologies, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Mirzai, M. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    1998-07-01

    Laboratory stress corrosion cracking (SCC) test environments developed to simulate representative BNGS-A steam generator (SG) crevice chemistries have been used to determine the susceptibility of Alloy 600 to lead-induced SCC under plausible SG conditions. Test environments were based on plant SG hideout return data and analysis of removed tubes and deposits. Deviations from the normal near neutral crevice pH environment were considered to simulate possible faulted excursion crevice chemistry and to bound the postulated crevice pH range of 3-9 (at temperature). The effect of lead contamination up to 1000 ppm, but with an emphasis on the 100 to 500 ppm range, was determined. SCC susceptibility was investigated using constant extension rate tensile (CERT) tests and encapsulated C-ring tests. CERT tests were performed at 305 degrees C on tubing representative of BNGS-A SG U-bends. The C-ring test method allowed a wider test matrix covering three temperatures (280, 304 and 315 degrees C), three strain levels (0.2%, 2% and 4%) and tubing representative of U-bends plus tubing given a simulated stress relief to represent material at the tubesheet. The results of this test program confirmed that in the absence of lead contamination, cracking does not occur in these concentrated, 3.3 to 8.9 pH range, crevice environments. Also, it appears that the concentrated crevice environments suppress lead-induced cracking relative to that seen in all-volatile-treatment (AVT) water. For the (static) C-ring tests, lead-induced SCC was only produced in the near-neutral crevice environment and was more severe at 500 ppm than 100 ppm PbO. This trend was also observed in CERT tests but some cracking/grain boundary attack occurred in acidic (pH 3.3) and alkaline (pH 8.9) environments. The C-ring tests indicated that a certain amount of resistance to cracking was imparted by simulated stress relief of the tubing. This heat treatment, confirmed to have resulted in sensitization, promoted

  16. Lead-induced stress-corrosion cracking of alloy 600 in plausible steam generator crevice environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, M.D. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada); Manolescu, A. [Ontario Hydro Technologies, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Mirzai, M. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    1999-03-01

    Laboratory stress-corrosion cracking (SCC) test environments were developed to simulate crevice chemistries representative of Bruce Nuclear Generating Station A (BNPD A) steam generators (SGs); these test environments were used to determine the susceptibility of Alloy 600 to lead-induced SCC under plausible SG conditions. Test environments were based on plant SG hideout return data and analysis of removed tubes and deposits. Deviations from the normal near-neutral crevice pH environment were considered to simulate possible faulted excursion crevice chemistry and to bound the postulated crevice pH range of 3 to 9 (at temperature). The effect of lead contamination up to 1000 ppm, but with an emphasis on the 100- to 500-ppm range, was determined. SCC susceptibility was investigated using constant extension rate tensile (CERT) tests and encapsulated C-ring tests. CERT tests were performed at 305 degrees C on tubing representative of BNPD A SG U-bends. The C-ring test method allowed a wider test matrix, covering 3 temperatures (280 degrees C, 304 degrees C and 315 degrees C), 3 strain levels (0.2%, 2% and 4%), and tubing representative of U-bends plus tubing given a simulated stress relief to represent material at the tube sheet. The results of this test program confirmed that in the absence of lead contamination, cracking does not occur in these concentrated, 3.3 to 8.9 pH range, crevice environments. Also, it appears that the concentrated crevice environments suppress lead-induced cracking relative to that seen in all-volatile-treatment (AVT) water. For the (static) C-ring tests, lead-induced SCC was only produced in the near-neutral crevice environment and was more severe at 500 ppm than at 100 ppm PbO. This trend was also observed in CERT tests, but some cracking-grain boundary attack occurred in acidic (pH 3.3) and alkaline (pH 8.9) environments. The C-ring tests indicated that a certain amount of resistance to cracking was imparted by simulated stress relief of

  17. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  18. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  19. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Mohamed Wahid

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  20. LAND SUITABILITY SCENARIOS FOR ARID COASTAL PLAINS USING GIS MODELING: SOUTHWESTERN SINAI COASTAL PLAIN, EGYPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Wahid

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Site selection analysis was carried out to find the best suitable lands for development activities in an example of promising coastal plains, southwestern Sinai, Egypt. Two GIS models were developed to represent two scenarios of land use suitability in the study area using GIS Multi Criteria Analysis Modeling. The factors contributed in the analysis are the Topography, Land cover, Existing Land use, Flash flood index, Drainage lines and Water points. The first scenario was to classify the area according to various gradual ranges of suitability. According to this scenario, the area is classified into five classes of suitability. The percentage of suitability values are 51.16, 6.13, 22.32, 18.49 and 1.89% for unsuitable, least suitable, low suitable, suitable and high suitable, respectively. The second scenario is developed for a particular kind of land use planning; tourism and recreation projects. The suitability map of this scenario was classified into five values. Unsuitable areas represent 51.18% of the study area, least suitable 16.67%, low suitable 22.85%, suitable 8.61%, and high suitable 0.68%. The best area for locating development projects is the area surrounding El-Tor City and close to the coast. This area could be an urban extension of El-Tor City with more economical and environmental management.

  1. Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

    2014-03-15

    In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development.

  2. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  3. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  4. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  5. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  6. Is air pollution a plausible candidate for prenatal exposure in autism spectrum disorder (ASD)? : a systematic review / y Dhanashree Vernekar

    OpenAIRE

    Vernekar, Dhanashree

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To present a systematic review of existing literature that investigates biological plausibility of prenatal hazardous air pollutants’ (HAPs) exposure, in the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and related outcomes. Method: Electronic databases Pubmed, Biomed Central and National Database for Autism Research, and grey literature pertaining to air pollution association with ASD and related outcomes were searched using specific keywords. The search included 190 HAPs as defi...

  7. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  8. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  9. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  10. Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human

  11. Plausible antioxidant biomechanics and anticonvulsant pharmacological activity of brain-targeted β-carotene nanoparticles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuf M

    2012-08-01

    general tonic–clonic seizures reduced significantly to 2.90 ± 0.98 seconds by the use of BCNP and was further reduced on P-80-BCNP to 1.20 ± 0.20 seconds as compared to PTZ control and PTZ-placebo control (8.09 ± 0.26 seconds. General tonic–clonic seizures latency was increased significantly to 191.0 ± 9.80 seconds in BCNP and was further increased in P-80-BCNP to 231.0 ± 16.30 seconds, as compared to PTZ (120.10 ± 4.50 seconds and placebo control (120.30 ± 7.4 seconds. The results of this study demonstrate a plausible novel anticonvulsant activity of β-carotene at a low dose of 2 mg/kg, with brain-targeted nanodelivery, thus increasing its bioavailability and stability.Keywords: anticonvulsant, blood–brain barrier (BBB, targeted brain delivery, polysorbate-80-coated β-carotene nanoparticles (P-80-BCNP, maximal electroshock seizure (MES, pentylenetetrazole (PTZ

  12. Four views on the Netherlands. Production, labor and sectoral structure in four scenarios up to 2040; Vier vergezichten op Nederland. Productie, arbeid en sectorstructuur in vier scenario's tot 2040

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huizinga, F.; Smid, B.

    2004-11-01

    Dutch policy makers are confronted by several strategic challenges that carry great significance for the long run economic perspectives. There is great uncertainty about the scale of future bottlenecks and about the economic conditions under which they will occur. This study offers four scenarios with plausible developments for the Dutch economy at the macro and the sectoral level until 2040. The study builds on Four Futures of Europe, published by CPB in 2003, in which four scenarios with plausible future developments for Europe are described. The scenarios for the Dutch economy contain a wide range of results for many variables. For instance, the cumulated growth of GDP per capita until 2040 varies from 30% to 120%. The scenarios with high growth are also characterised by more inequality and lower environmental quality. Ageing has a negative effect on labour supply and employment growth and on the ratio of the active to the non-active population in all scenarios. An increase in participation, especially of women and older workers, may counterbalance these effects. Sectoral employment shares will shift strongly, particularly from agriculture and manufacturing to services and health care. This shift is a continuation of a process that has already been going on for decades. [Dutch] Het Nederlandse beleid staat voor een aantal strategische uitdagingen die van grote betekenis zijn voor de economische perspectieven op lange termijn. Over de omvang van de toekomstige knelpunten en de economische achtergrond waartegen die zich zullen afspelen bestaat grote onzekerheid. Om de onzekerheden in kaart te brengen biedt deze studie vier scenario's voor de Nederlandse economie tot 2040 met een kwantitatieve analyse op nationaal niveau en voor afzonderlijke sectoren. De scenario's bouwen voort op de in 2003 uitgebrachte studie Four Futures of Europe, waarin in vier scenario's mogelijke toekomstbeelden voor Europa zijn beschreven. Er bestaan grote verschillen tussen

  13. Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Gambhir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2, to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2 °C goal is, when compared to the 2.5–4 °C goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2 °C goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2 °C is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.

  14. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  15. Non-enzymatic glycolysis and pentose phosphate pathway-like reactions in a plausible Archean ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Markus A; Turchyn, Alexandra V; Ralser, Markus

    2014-04-25

    The reaction sequences of central metabolism, glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway provide essential precursors for nucleic acids, amino acids and lipids. However, their evolutionary origins are not yet understood. Here, we provide evidence that their structure could have been fundamentally shaped by the general chemical environments in earth's earliest oceans. We reconstructed potential scenarios for oceans of the prebiotic Archean based on the composition of early sediments. We report that the resultant reaction milieu catalyses the interconversion of metabolites that in modern organisms constitute glycolysis and the pentose phosphate pathway. The 29 observed reactions include the formation and/or interconversion of glucose, pyruvate, the nucleic acid precursor ribose-5-phosphate and the amino acid precursor erythrose-4-phosphate, antedating reactions sequences similar to that used by the metabolic pathways. Moreover, the Archean ocean mimetic increased the stability of the phosphorylated intermediates and accelerated the rate of intermediate reactions and pyruvate production. The catalytic capacity of the reconstructed ocean milieu was attributable to its metal content. The reactions were particularly sensitive to ferrous iron Fe(II), which is understood to have had high concentrations in the Archean oceans. These observations reveal that reaction sequences that constitute central carbon metabolism could have been constrained by the iron-rich oceanic environment of the early Archean. The origin of metabolism could thus date back to the prebiotic world.

  16. Characteristics of Marine Recreational Fishing in the anakkale Strait (Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. UNAL

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic and harvest impacts of Marine Recreational Fishing (MRF in Çanakkale Strait were analysed along with fishing policy, sociology and habits of fishers. Data sources included field survey data carried out along the entire length of the Çanakkale strait and policy information gathered from published sources. MRF policy is commendable, even in the fishing tourism sector, and is better developed than that in many other European countries. In Çanakkale, 9.9% of the population is recreational fishers. Recreational fishers are typically men (90%, primarily those between the ages of 25 and 49 yrs. The occupation of the recreational fishers ranged from self-employed (28%, students (28%, retired persons (22% and public employees (15%, to currently-unemployed persons (7%. An analysis of diel behaviour showed that most recreational fishers preferred fishing during the day (56.1%, while the evening was the next most preferred time for fishing (18%, followed by the night-time (9.8%, while a substantial number of recreational fishers (16.1% reported that they fished at any time of day. The most popular type of fishing was shore-based (68%, followed by boat-based (21%, and underwater fishing (11%. The mean daily fishing times were 6.07 h d-1, 6.18 h d-1 4.75 d-1 for boat-based, underwater and shore-based fishing, respectively. Summer and autumn were the preferred seasons for shore-based and underwater fishing, while autumn and winter were preferred for boat-based fishing. The highest Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE was observed for boat-based fishing (2.77 kg h-1, followed by underwater (0.97 kg h-1 and shore-based fishing (0.81 kg h-1. The catch composition included 51 species, though the catch composition of each fishing type was mostly comprised of only 3 or 4 species. The impact of the MRF harvest was high (30% of commercial fishing, particularly for bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix and picarel (Spicara smaris species. The economic impact of MRF was

  17. Characteristics of Marine Recreational Fishing in the anakkale Strait (Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. UNAL

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The economic and harvest impacts of Marine Recreational Fishing (MRF in Çanakkale Strait were analysed along with fishing policy, sociology and habits of fishers. Data sources included field survey data carried out along the entire length of the Çanakkale strait and policy information gathered from published sources. MRF policy is commendable, even in the fishing tourism sector, and is better developed than that in many other European countries. In Çanakkale, 9.9% of the population is recreational fishers. Recreational fishers are typically men (90%, primarily those between the ages of 25 and 49 yrs. The occupation of the recreational fishers ranged from self-employed (28%, students (28%, retired persons (22% and public employees (15%, to currently-unemployed persons (7%. An analysis of diel behaviour showed that most recreational fishers preferred fishing during the day (56.1%, while the evening was the next most preferred time for fishing (18%, followed by the night-time (9.8%, while a substantial number of recreational fishers (16.1% reported that they fished at any time of day. The most popular type of fishing was shore-based (68%, followed by boat-based (21%, and underwater fishing (11%. The mean daily fishing times were 6.07 h d-1, 6.18 h d-1 4.75 d-1 for boat-based, underwater and shore-based fishing, respectively. Summer and autumn were the preferred seasons for shore-based and underwater fishing, while autumn and winter were preferred for boat-based fishing. The highest Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE was observed for boat-based fishing (2.77 kg h-1, followed by underwater (0.97 kg h-1 and shore-based fishing (0.81 kg h-1. The catch composition included 51 species, though the catch composition of each fishing type was mostly comprised of only 3 or 4 species. The impact of the MRF harvest was high (30% of commercial fishing, particularly for bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix and picarel (Spicara smaris species. The economic impact of MRF was

  18. Preliminary Study on Plausible Reasoning in Chemistry Teaching of Senior Middle School%高中化学合情推理教学的初步研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨健; 吴俊明; 骆红山

    2009-01-01

    合情推理(Plausible reasoning)对科学教育具重要意义.通过科学哲学、逻辑学讨论以及历史实例说明科学发现离不开合情推理,科学教育必须重视合情推理能力的培养,并对高中化学合情推理教学的可能性、对象和内容等问题进行了讨论.%Plausible reasoning is significant to science education. Scientific philosophy, logic and historical examples prove that plausible reasoning is indispensable to scientific discoveries,so science education must pay attention to the development of plausible reasoning ability of students. Moreover, it discusses the possibility, object and content of plausible reasoning teaching in chemistry of senior middle school.

  19. Running economy assessment within cardiopulmonary exercise testing for recreational runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeroff, Tobias; Bernardi, Andreas; Vogt, Lutz; Banzer, Winfried

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of running economy (RE) on running performance within recreational runners of different maximal aerobic capacity, and the feasibility of RE assessment within routine cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). Sixty-eight recreational runners (m: 49, f: 19; age: 21-54) completed a graded exercise test (GXT) until exhaustion. Maximal oxygen uptake and respiratory compensation point were obtained via CPET. RE was calculated as relative oxygen uptake per covered distance (mL/kg/km) one step below respiratory compensation point (RCP). Subjects were grouped for RE via median split and categorized into one of six fitness levels (Very Poor, Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent, Superior) (ACSM 2010). Irrespective of fitness levels, recreational runners with a more energy efficient movement (REVO2max values ranged between 35.2 and 66.0 ml/min/kg. Running velocity at RCP of runners within VO2max categories Good and Superior differed significantly (P<0.05) between RE groups. This study provides evidence that RE influences submaximal running performance in recreational distance runners within a broad range of maximal aerobic capacity. Complementing routine CPET with RE assessment at physiological threshold intensities and ACSM based categorization seems feasible to delineate the impact of movement efficiency and aerobic fitness on performance in recreational runners.

  20. Publically Funded Recreation Facilities: Obesogenic Environments for Children and Families?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patti-Jean Naylor

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing healthy food options in public venues, including recreational facilities, is a health priority. The purpose of this study was to describe the public recreation food environment in British Columbia, Canada using a sequential explanatory mixed methods design. Facility audits assessed policy, programs, vending, concessions, fundraising, staff meetings and events. Focus groups addressed context and issues related to action. Eighty-eighty percent of facilities had no policy governing food sold or provided for children/youth programs. Sixty-eight percent of vending snacks were chocolate bars and chips while 57% of beverages were sugar sweetened. User group fundraisers held at the recreation facilities also sold ‘unhealthy’ foods. Forty-two percent of recreation facilities reported providing user-pay programs that educated the public about healthy eating. Contracts, economics, lack of resources and knowledge and motivation of staff and patrons were barriers to change. Recreation food environments were obesogenic but stakeholders were interested in change. Technical support, resources and education are needed.

  1. A comprehensive framework for tourism and recreation drought vulnerability reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Deborah S. K.; Wilhelmi, Olga V.; Finnessey, Taryn N.; Deheza, Veva

    2013-12-01

    The effects of drought are vast, but loss statistics often do not reflect the impacts on the tourism and recreation sector, which for many places is one of the most critical economic drivers. This is concerning because drought events are common across the globe, with varying frequency, duration, and intensity, and are therefore unavoidable. Over the years, drought conditions have been at record levels in many regions, causing deep societal and economic impacts. However, little research has been conducted on connections between tourism/recreation and drought, revealing a distinct disconnect between the tourism/recreation sector and drought management. To bridge this gap in the current understanding of, and approaches to, managing drought in the tourism/recreation sector, we present an interdisciplinary conceptual framework that integrates tourism/recreation into the drought management process to ensure sustainable economic development and community vitality. The model presented here promotes understanding of critical interactions through a bottom-up stakeholder engagement process balanced with formal top-down management approaches.

  2. Health surveys of cyanobacteria in drinking and recreational waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guadalupe Martínez Juárez

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental surveys of drinking and recreational waters with the objective of related health risk control are a common component in public health policy. Based in updated scientific knowledge proliferation of Cyanobacteria constitutes a new risk, and it should be considered in public health programs. The principal objective of this work is to assess the presence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in drinking and recreational waters. Results of a four year survey in the sanitary department of Talavera de la Reina are presented. A descriptive study of the presence of cyanobacteria and microcystins, in non treated water from two reservoirs at the pick up point and after treatment in the exit point from two treatment plants. The same approach has been used in two recreational summer natural water reservoirs. Every fifteen days samples were analysed for cyanobateria recount and free microcystin level determination by ELISA essay. From the results of the analysis in drinking water we concluded that microcystines levels in non treated water from reservoirs are not high, less than 6 per cent of samples showed a positive results for microcystins. Treatment was effective as no sample after treatment showed a positive result for microcystins. 48 per cent of recreational water samples showed levels above 100,000 cells per ml, which corresponds to the WHO moderate adverse effect risk guide level. Public health policy should include systematic level survey of cyanobaterias from drinking and recreational water. Exposure related health adverse effects surveys should be conducted.

  3. Evaluation on the Value of Coastal Recreational Resources in Qingdao

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    <正>Coastal recreational resources are public goods without market price or with lower price,which have competitive service and irreversible decision on development.It is an important aspect for the sustainable use to evaluate the economic value of the recreational resources using the existing environment and resources valuation methods.This paper focuses on evaluating the value of coastal recreational resources in Qingdao by adopting Travel Cost Method(TCM),which is a relative mature evaluation technique in developed countries.Through questionnaire in main sight-seeing spots along coastal line in Qingdao,correlation equation between visitation rate and travel cost is established.The related data are processed by Eviews,and the demanding curve of tour is fitted and regressed.Then,the economic value of coastal recreational resources in Qingdao is calculated by adding actual tour cost to consumer surplus. It provides scientific evidence for making policies on development and administration and benefits the rational utilization of coastal recreational resources.

  4. Z-Burst Scenario for the Highest Energy Cosmic Rays

    CERN Document Server

    Fodor, Z; Ringwald, Andreas

    2002-01-01

    The origin of highest energy cosmic rays is yet unknown. An appealing possibility is the so-called Z-burst scenario, in which a large fraction of these cosmic rays are decay products of Z bosons produced in the scattering of ultrahigh energy neutrinos on cosmological relic neutrinos. The comparison between the observed and predicted spectra constrains the mass of the heaviest neutrino. The required neutrino mass is fairly robust against variations of the presently unknown quantities, such as the amount of relic neutrino clustering, the universal photon radio background and the extragalactic magnetic field. Considering different possibilities for the ordinary cosmic rays the required neutrino masses are determined. In the most plausible case that the ordinary cosmic rays are of extragalactic origin and the universal radio background is strong enough to suppress high energy photons, the required neutrino mass is 0.08 eV < m_nu < 0.40 eV. The required ultrahigh energy neutrino flux should be detected in th...

  5. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  6. The Relevance of Local Participatory Scenario Planning for Ecosystem Management Policies in the Basque Country, Northern Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igone Palacios-Agundez

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available As part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in Biscay, Basque Country, we described scenarios for Biscay through 2050 in an integrated and participatory way by downscaling the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA global scenarios, analyzed how ecosystem services and human well-being might change in a range of plausible futures, identified management strategies for the territory through a backcasting process, and explored the relevance of scenarios to policy making. Our intention was to strengthen the link to policy making and to achieve a real implementation of our research results in ecosystem management policies. We also aimed to provide more insights on how large-scale scenario developments can be translated to the local level. In doing so, we emphasized specific local characteristics and used highly participatory methods focusing on novel elements, such as organizing back-to-back workshops, creating coherent scenarios across scales, using visual elements to present exploratory scenarios, and combining exploratory scenarios with normative backcasting using a World Café methodology. The outcome scenarios and management proposals are relevant for decision making and planning processes at local scale and at the same time, they are comparable to other assessment scenarios. This local participatory scenario process and tool for landscape planning is already having a policy impact thanks to the involvement of public administration technicians and policy makers. In the recently renewed strategic policy plan for sustainability of the county, this assessment is considered a high priority. Therefore, for the next steps of the assessment, detailed guidelines for ecosystem management policies are planned.

  7. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  8. Occurrence of Legionella in showers at recreational facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Filippis, Patrizia; Mozzetti, Cinzia; Amicosante, Massimo; D'Alò, Gian Loreto; Messina, Alessandra; Varrenti, Donatella; Giammattei, Roberto; Di Giorgio, Floriana; Corradi, Stefania; D'Auria, Alberto; Fraietta, Roberta; Gabrieli, Rosanna

    2017-06-01

    Critical environments, including water systems in recreational settings, represent an important source of Legionella pneumophila infection in humans. In order to assess the potential risk for legionellosis, we analyzed Legionella contamination of water distribution systems in 36 recreational facilities equipped with swimming pools. One hundred and sixty water samples were analyzed from shower heads or taps located in locker rooms or in bathrooms. By culture method and polymerase chain reaction, 41/160 samples were positive for Legionella from 12/36 recreational centers. Hotels (57.1%) and sports centers (41.2%) were the most contaminated. L. pneumophila serotypes 2-14 (25/41) were more frequently found than serotype 1 (10/41). Samples at temperature ≥30 °C were more frequently positive than samples at temperature 10 CFU/mL. Maintenance, good hygiene practices, interventions on the hydraulic system and regular controls must be implemented to minimize exposure to L. pneumophila infection risk.

  9. Medicinal and recreational marijuana: what are the risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gerpen, Shawn; Vik, Tamara; Soundy, Timothy J

    2015-01-01

    With the recent legalization of recreational marijuana in Colorado, Washington, Alaska, the District of Columbia and legislation pending for both medical and recreational marijuana in several other states, it is important for the facts regarding its potential for serious mental health consequences to be known. Little has been said about the psychiatric risks of this substance, particularly in youth. Several studies have shown increased rates of depression, anxiety and schizophrenia among those who use marijuana on a regular basis. In addition, permanent loss of IQ and structural changes in the brain have been demonstrated with habitual use. Legalization of marijuana for recreational use can influence an adolescent's perception of this substance as "safe." In states that have legalized marijuana for medical purposes, there is the very real problem of "diversion." As many as 34 percent of 12th-graders who use marijuana in states with legalized marijuana had obtained it from a person who had received it through a prescription.

  10. Quality of life threats in recreational and competitive sport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støckel, Jan Toftegaard

    Quality of life threats in recreational and competitive sport Author: ass. Professor Jan Toftegaard Støckel Key words: sport, stress, depression, illness, Previous research has shown that personal issues (nutrition, injury, goals and expectations), coach-athlete issues (coach, coaching style......, selection) and environmental issues (team atmosphere, support structures) are key determinants for stress, depression and illness in elite sports. In a large scale survey among 4,000 Danish athletes from recreational thru to elite sport a regression analysis show an increase in risk of self-reported stress......, depression or illness (SDI) by odds ratio 6,5 in elite sport compared to recreational sport. One in eight athletes reported SDI and highest associations are related to coach behavior. The key question for this abstract is to examine whether men and women are equally vulnerable to SDI at various sport levels...

  11. Gender Differences in Recreational Sports Participation among Taiwanese Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang-Ting Tsai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the gender differences in the enjoyment of recreational sports participation among Taiwanese adults. Data were obtained using the 2007 Taiwan Social Change Survey. The questionnaire included a topical module of the International Social Survey Program regarding leisure time and sports. Results showed that male subjects were more likely to participate in recreational sports to improve their appearance and on account of their personal interest. In addition to these factors, female subjects also experienced greater motivation to participate when Taiwanese athletes performed well in international sporting competitions. This study confirmed that the factors influencing enjoyment of recreational sports participation differ among men and women. These results can be used to better inform public health professionals and other regulatory organizations formulating physical activity intervention strategies.

  12. Chronic Recreational Physical Inactivity and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cannioto, Rikki; LaMonte, Michael J.; Risch, Harvey A

    2016-01-01

    recreational physical activity were classified as inactive, according to the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans. The association between physical inactivity exposure and EOC risk overall was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Subgroup analysis was performed based upon EOC histotype......It is estimated that 5% of women in the United States and 10% to 50% of women worldwide are physically inactive. Previous studies have demonstrated that recreational physical activity is associated with decreased risks of developing breast, colon, and endometrial cancers. The association between...... physical activity and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is less clear. Despite extensive research, including several epidemiological studies and 2 systematic reviews, insufficient and inconsistent evidence is available to support an independent association between recreational physical activity and risk...

  13. The geography of recreational physical activity in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, Esther; Jones, Andy P

    2011-01-01

    Levels of physical activity have declined considerably over recent decades in England, and there is evidence that activity patterns vary across areas. Previous studies of the geography of physical activity have frequently relied on model based synthetic estimates. Using data from a large population survey this study develops a direct measure of recreational physical activity and investigates variations in activity patterns across English Local Authorities. For both sexes the results show a distinct geography of recreational physical activity associated with north/south variations and urban/rural status. The environmental and behavioural factors driving those patterns are still poorly understood. We conclude that the variations observed might reflect recreational opportunities and the socio-cultural context of areas. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND DRIVERS OF CHOICE REGARDING LOCAL RECREATION SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Maria SAVA

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the rapidly growing industry of leisure has displayed some signs of overcrowding on account of the diminished capacities of turning employed resources into profit and the lowered personnel productivity in Romania. Economic agents striving to succeed in this rapidly evolving economic sector should reconsider their position and plan a strategy to grow or reinforce their business. The present paper provides a starting point in outlying the local recreation market specificity by investigating consumer preferences and drivers of choice. Results show that although there is an active demand for commercial recreational activities, its quantum is rather low. Moreover, the study shows that service-related factors (such as quality, personnel qualification, price and novelty appear to have the highest importance for consumers, that positive word of mouth is a rather strong influencer, while advertising and location-related factors rank lowest on the list of priorities when choosing a recreation provider.

  15. THE POSITION OF SPORTS-RECREATIONAL TOURISM IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ognjen Jovović

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Basic for realization of tourist movements lays in meeting cultural and recreati- onal needs of potential customers. If we know that largest number of tourists represents part of recreational ones, than is not hard to realize how large potential lays in that number of potential guests. On this fact should be built strategy of movement of tourist offer of Montenegro for it extreme potentials on which can be founded concrete project. In this work are given basic assumptions for development of sport recreational shapes of tourism with stress to natural potentials that directly determine shape of sport recreational activities that represent basis of tourist offer. Offer should be created in that way that it is adapted to wide segment of recreational guests and not professional sportsmen, although they also should not be underestimated but one should know that in order to create conditions for arrival of sports professionals offer has to be completely different and more specialized that requires creating of conditions of existence of highly developed sports infrastruc- ture, while for amateurs a lot can be done in “system of improvising”, satisfying basic criteria – recreation in conditions of untouched and well preserved nature with securing maximal level of security and protection of guests, in order to prevent possible unwilling consequences that can lead to injury of guests and for development and realization of such project one need a much less funds than is building of facilities that should meet standards of professional sportsmen. The aim is to create good offer at good infrastructure, logistics and with good equipment with securing maximal security, adaptation to various wishes of guests, ta- king in consideration their structure is conditioned by age, health condition, physical fitness as personal wishes toward sports and recreational activities.

  16. Public perceptions of arguments supporting and opposing recreational marijuana legalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinty, Emma E; Niederdeppe, Jeff; Heley, Kathryn; Barry, Colleen L

    2017-02-09

    In debates about recreational marijuana legalization, pro-legalization arguments highlighting economic and other potential policy benefits compete with anti-legalization arguments emphasizing public health risks. In 2016, we conducted a national survey using an online panel (N=979) designed to answer two main research questions: (1) How do Americans perceive the relative strength of competing arguments about recreational marijuana legalization? (2) How are perceptions of argument strength associated with public support for recreational marijuana legalization? We examined differences in attitudes among individuals living in states that have/have not legalized recreational marijuana and among Democrats/Independents/Republicans. Ordered logit regression assessed the relationship between perceived argument strength and public support for recreational marijuana legalization. Respondents rated pro-legalization arguments highlighting beneficial economic and criminal justice consequences as more persuasive than anti-legalization arguments emphasizing adverse public health effects. Respondents were more likely to agree with arguments highlighting legalization's potential to increase tax revenue (63.9%) and reduce prison overcrowding (62.8%) than arguments emphasizing negative consequences on motor vehicle crashes (51.8%) and youth health (49.6%). The highest rated anti-legalization arguments highlighted the conflict between state and federal marijuana laws (63.0%) and asserted that legalization will fail to eliminate the black market (57.2%). Respondents who endorsed pro-legalization economic and criminal justice arguments were more likely than other respondents to support legalization. Our findings indicate that, on both side of the recreational marijuana legalization debate, there are arguments that resonate with the American public. However, public health risk messages were viewed as less compelling than pro-legalization economic and criminal justice-oriented arguments.

  17. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in recreational water in Belgium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehsan, Md Amimul; Casaert, Stijn; Levecke, Bruno; Van Rooy, Liesbet; Pelicaen, Joachim; Smis, Anne; De Backer, Joke; Vervaeke, Bart; De Smedt, Sandra; Schoonbaert, Filip; Lammens, Saskia; Warmoes, Thierry; Geurden, Thomas; Claerebout, Edwin

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in different recreational water bodies in Belgium and to estimate the infection risk associated with swimming and other recreational activities. Cryptosporidium oocysts and/or Giardia cysts were detected in three out of 37 swimming pools, seven out of 10 recreational lakes, two out of seven splash parks and four out of 16 water fountains. In the swimming pools no infection risk for Cryptosporidium could be calculated, since oocysts were only detected in filter backwash water. The risk of Giardia infection in the swimming pools varied from 1.13×10(-6) to 2.49×10(-6) per swim per person. In recreational lakes, the infection risk varied from 2.79×10(-5) to 5.74×10(-5) per swim per person for Cryptosporidium and from 7.04×10(-5) to 1.46×10(-4) for Giardia. For other outdoor water recreation activities the estimated infection risk was 5.71×10(-6) for Cryptosporidium and 1.47×10(-5) for Giardia. However, most positive samples in the recreational lakes belonged to species/genotypes that are either animal-specific or predominantly found in animals. No Cryptosporidium was found in splash parks and water fountains, but the presence of Giardia cysts suggests a risk for human infection. The infection risk of Giardia infection during a 3.5-minute visit to a splash park for children equalled 1.68×10(-4).

  18. South Fork Shenandoah River habitat-flow modeling to determine ecological and recreational characteristics during low-flow periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Ramey, R. Clay

    2012-01-01

    The ecological habitat requirements of aquatic organisms and recreational streamflow requirements of the South Fork Shenandoah River were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Central Shenandoah Valley Planning District Commission, the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission, and Virginia Commonwealth University. Physical habitat simulation modeling was conducted to examine flow as a major determinant of physical habitat availability and recreation suitability using field-collected hydraulic habitat variables such as water depth, water velocity, and substrate characteristics. Fish habitat-suitability criteria specific to the South Fork Shenandoah River were developed for sub-adult and adult smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), juvenile and sub-adult redbreast sunfish (Lepomis auritus), spotfin or satinfin shiner (Cyprinella spp), margined madtom (Noturus insignis),and river chub (Nocomis micropogon). Historic streamflow statistics for the summer low-flow period during July, August, and September were used as benchmark low-flow conditions and compared to habitat simulation results and water-withdrawal scenarios based on 2005 withdrawal data. To examine habitat and recreation characteristics during droughts, daily fish habitat or recreation suitability values were simulated for 2002 and other selected drought years. Recreation suitability during droughts was extremely low, because the modeling demonstrated that suitable conditions occur when the streamflows are greater than the 50th percentile flow for July, August, and September. Habitat availability for fish is generally at a maximum when streamflows are between the 75th and 25th percentile flows for July, August, and September. Time-series results for drought years, such as 2002, showed that extreme low-flow conditions less than the 5th percentile of flow for July, August, and September corresponded to below-normal habitat availability for both game and nongame fish in the

  19. Is recreational hunting important for landscape multi-functionality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Jens Friis; Jensen, Frank Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    , and preservation of valued and/or threatened animal and plant species. Recreational hunting may thus contribute to preserve and enhance landscape multifunctionality. Yet, little is known about the importance of hunting interests in motivating such landscape management. In this article, we seek to shed light...... on these issues on the basis of data from a nationally representative survey of Danish landowners. Our findings show a mixed picture of the role of recreational hunting in supporting multifunctional landscapes. We observe a broad swathe of landscape changes for multifunctionality cross properties with different...

  20. Environmental Management of Human Waste Disposal for Recreational Boating Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer; Yoon

    1998-01-01

    / A methodology to estimate the number of pump-out facilities and dump stations required to service human waste disposal for recreational power boating activities in Pennsylvania during the 1994 boating season is described. Study results suggest that a total of 39 additional pump-out stations and 13 dump stations may be required on seven major waterbodies: The Three Rivers Area, Lake Erie/Presque Isle Bay, Raystown Lake, the Susquehanna River, the Delaware River, Lake Wallenpaupack, and the Kinzua Reservoir. Suggestions for improving the methodology are provided. KEY WORDS: Human waste; Recreation; Power boating; Waste facilities; Waste disposal; Pennsylvania

  1. EFFECT OF RECREATIONAL LOAD ON SOIL RESERVE “UTRISH”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazeev K. S.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The original soils were investigated at the Black Sea coast of Russia. Severe degradation of the soil in a Utrish nation reserve were identified as a result of high recreational pressure. Soils with high recreational load have low humus content (2-3 times and a lower en-zymatic activity than the control of the soil. Biological parameters can be successfully used for environmental monitoring of soil of Utrish reserve, in contrast to the chemical and physic-chemical properties

  2. Population vulnerability and evacuation challenges in California for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter I in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff; Shoaf, Kimberley

    2013-01-01

    The SAFRR tsunami scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical yet plausible tsunami associated with a magnitude 9.1 megathrust earthquake east of the Alaska Peninsula. This report summarizes community variations in population vulnerability and potential evacuation challenges to the tsunami. The most significant public-health concern for California coastal communities during a distant-source tsunami is the ability to evacuate people out of potential inundation zones. Fatalities from the SAFRR tsunami scenario could be low if emergency managers can implement an effective evacuation in the time between tsunami generation and arrival, as well as keep people from entering tsunami-prone areas until all-clear messages can be delivered. This will be challenging given the estimated 91,956 residents, 81,277 employees, as well as numerous public venues, dependent-population facilities, community-support businesses, and high-volume beaches that are in the 79 incorporated communities and 17 counties that have land in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone. Although all coastal communities face some level of threat from this scenario, the highest concentrations of people in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone are in Long Beach, San Diego, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, and San Francisco. Communities also vary in the prevalent categories of populations that are in scenario tsunami-inundation zones, such as residents in Long Beach, employees in San Francisco, tourists at public venues in Santa Cruz, and beach or park visitors in unincorporated Los Angeles County. Certain communities have higher percentages of groups that may need targeted outreach and preparedness training, such as renters, the very young and very old, and individuals with limited English-language skills or no English-language skills at all. Sustained education and targeted evacuation messaging is also important at several high-occupancy public venues in the scenario tsunami-inundation zone (for example, city

  3. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nord 2009]. Figure 1 shows the relationship between mission thread scenarios and QA scenarios. Mission thread scenarios contain steps that...Execute Health Severe Immediate Observed Flash Flood "No Special Handling" Actual Assess Meteorological Severe Expected Likely Tsunami "No Special...projects.shtm#6 (2011). CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 | 49 [ Nord 2009] Nord , R.; Bergey, J.; Blanchette, S.; & Klein, M. “The Impact of Conducting ATAM

  4. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  5. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  6. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  7. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  8. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  9. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  10. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  11. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  12. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  13. Assessment of different formation scenarios for the ring system of (10199) Chariklo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melita, M. D.; Duffard, R.; Ortiz, J. L.; Campo-Bagatin, A.

    2017-06-01

    Context. The discovery that the Centaur (10199) Chariklo possesses a ring system opens questions about their origin. Aims: We here asses the plausibility of different scenarios for the origin of the observed ring system. Methods: We first consider the possibility that the material of the ring originated in the disruption of a satellite that had reached a critical distance from the Centaur. We discuss the conditions for the putative satellite to approach the Centaur as a consequence of tidal interaction. A three-body encounter is also considered as a transport mechanism. In addition, we study the case in which the ring is formed by the ejecta of a cratering collision on the Centaur and we constrain the collision parameters and the size of the resulting crater of the event. Finally, we consider that the ring material originates from a catastrophic collision between a background object and a satellite located at a distance corresponding to the the current location of the ring. We compute the typical timescales for these scenarios. Results: We estimate that in order to be tidally disrupted a satellite would have had to be larger than approximately 6.5 km at the location of the rings. However the tidal interaction is rather weak for objects of the size of outer solar system bodies at the ring location, therefore we considered other more effective mechanisms by which a satellite might have approached the Centaur. Collisonal scenarios are both physically plausible for the formation, but semianalytical estimations indicate that the probability of the corresponding collisions is low under current conditions.

  14. Regional Rural Tourist Recreation Shopping Centers: A New Concept in the Leisure Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Leland L.

    1975-01-01

    A rural tourist-recreation shopping center is defined as an area relatively accessible to city dwellers that can be developed for recreation purposes. Twenty-three such areas have been identified in the Appalachian Highlands. (PS)

  15. 78 FR 38999 - Recreational Boating-Estimating Benefits of Reducing Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-28

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard Recreational Boating--Estimating Benefits of Reducing Injuries AGENCY: Coast Guard... Boating Injuries: Alternative Sources of Information on Fatalities, Injuries, and ] Property Damages... Reducing Recreational Boating Injuries: Alternative Sources of Information on Fatalities, Injuries, and...

  16. Overview of Recent Marine and Freshwater Recreational Epidemiology Studies and Their Findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overview of Recent Marine and Freshwater Recreational Epidemiology Studies and Their Findings Timothy J. Wade, Elizabeth A. Sams, Rich Haugland, Alfred P. Dufour The National Epidemiologic and Environmental Assessment of Recreational Water Study was conducted to address aspects...

  17. A Note on Unified Statistics Including Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and Tsallis Statistics, and Plausible Extension to Anisotropic Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christianto V.

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available In the light of some recent hypotheses suggesting plausible unification of thermostatistics where Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein and Tsallis statistics become its special subsets, we consider further plausible extension to include non-integer Hausdorff dimension, which becomes realization of fractal entropy concept. In the subsequent section, we also discuss plausible extension of this unified statistics to include anisotropic effect by using quaternion oscillator, which may be observed in the context of Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation. Further observation is of course recommended in order to refute or verify this proposition.

  18. Estimating recreational harvest using interview-based recall survey: Implication of recalling in weight or numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sparrevohn, Claus Reedtz

    2013-01-01

    For many overfished marine stocks, recreational fishing continues even though recovery plans are implemented and commercial landings regulated. In such cases, unbiased and precise estimates of recreational harvest are important for successful management. Harvest estimation often relies on intervi......For many overfished marine stocks, recreational fishing continues even though recovery plans are implemented and commercial landings regulated. In such cases, unbiased and precise estimates of recreational harvest are important for successful management. Harvest estimation often relies...

  19. An Analysis of Normative Messages in Signs at Recreation Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Patricia L.; Cialdini, Robert B.; Bator, Renee J.; Rhoads, Kelton; Sagarin, Brad J.

    1998-01-01

    A systematic evaluation of signs and messages at 42 recreation areas in California and Arizona focused on type of site, managing agency, density of message locales, sign attributes, and message content. The vast majority of messages presented behavioral commands and were negatively worded. This striking imbalance points to concerns in visitor…

  20. INFO RELEASE. National Information Network for Recreation, Leisure and Sport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Vidya S.

    A study by the Northern Territories Department of Community Development systematically and specifically identified information needs and categories of clients through a set of intellectual concepts in the fields of sport, recreation, and leisure. A survey of Australia's serials holdings was conducted to assess the country's existing information…