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Sample records for plato predictive latency-aware

  1. Plato's Embryology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilberding, James

    2015-01-01

    Embryology was a subject that inspired great cross-disciplinary discussion in antiquity, and Plato's Timaeus made an important contribution to this discussion, though Plato's precise views have remained a matter of controversy, especially regarding three key questions pertaining to the generation and nature of the seed: whether there is a female seed; what the nature of seed is; and whether the seed contains a preformed human being. In this paper I argue that Plato's positions on these three issues can be adequately determined, even if some other aspects of his theory cannot. In particular, it is argued that (i) Plato subscribes to the encephalo-myelogenic theory of seed, though he places particular emphasis on the soul being the true seed; (ii) Plato is a two-seed theorist, yet the female seed appears to make no contribution to reproduction; and (iii) Plato cannot be an advocate of preformationism.

  2. Filsafat Ketuhanan Menurut Plato

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    Ivan Th.J Weismann

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Plato adalah filsuf pertama yang menulis secara filosofis dan secara sistematik teologis mengenai konsep Ketuhanan sehingga dapatlah dikatakan bahwa ia adalah peletqk dasar bagi ilmu teologia dan memberikan pengaruh besar bagi perkembanganfilsafat Barat khususnya tentangkonsep Ketuhanan. Pemikiran Plato tentang Ketuhanan adalah upayanya untuk mereformasi konsep Ketuhanan yang terdapat pada masyarakat Yunani kuno. Tulisan ini berupaya menganalisis dan memahami Ketuhanan menurut Plato agar pembaca masa kini dapat mengerti lebih dalam lagi tentong konsep Ketuhanan yang dipahami masyarakat Yunani kuno dan khususnya menurut Plato, dan juga dapat dijadikan sebagai bahan perbandingan bagifilsafat Ketuhanan pada masa kini. Filsafat Ketuhanan menurut Plato ini penulis jelaskan dengan memperhatikandimensi metafisika, epistemologi, dan etika.

  3. [Plato psychiatrist, Foucault platonic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathov, Nicolás

    2016-05-01

    This work explores the links between the concepts of "soul", "law" and "word" in Plato's work, in order to highlight the importance and the centrality of the philosophical-therapeutic dimension in the Greek philosopher's thought. In that way, this work pretends to show that "contemporary" problems usually discussed within "Human Sciences" in general, and Psychiatry in particular, should confront their knowledge with Plato's work, mainly due to the profound influence his ideas have had in our Greco-Christian culture. In that sense, and with that objective, this work also explores Michel Foucault's lucid and controversial interpretation of Plato.

  4. PLATO IV Accountancy Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pondy, Dorothy, Comp.

    The catalog was compiled to assist instructors in planning community college and university curricula using the 48 computer-assisted accountancy lessons available on PLATO IV (Programmed Logic for Automatic Teaching Operation) for first semester accounting courses. It contains information on lesson access, lists of acceptable abbreviations for…

  5. Control Data's Education Offering: "Plato Would Have Enjoyed PLATO"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datamation, 1976

    1976-01-01

    Programmed Learning and Teaching Operation (PLATO) distributes instructional materials in the form of text, numbers, animated drawings and other graphics for individualized, self-paced learning. (Author)

  6. From Pericles to Plato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2012-01-01

    Plato is normally taken as one of the founders of Western political philosophy, not at least with his Republic. Here, he constructs a hierarchy of forms of governments, beginning with aristocracy at the top as a critical standard for the other forms of governments, and proceeding through timocrac......’ funeral oration is used to show that Pericles presented a democratic political philosophy that can serve as a counterpoint to Plato’s political philosophy in the Republic....

  7. Peers on Socrates and Plato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Jim

    2014-01-01

    There is more to be said about two of the topics Chris Peers addresses in his article "Freud, Plato and Irigaray: A morpho-logic of teaching and learning" (2012, Educational Philosophy and Theory, 44, 760-774), namely the Socratic method of teaching and Plato's stance with regard to women and feminism. My purpose in this article is…

  8. PLATO Sitcom Dialogs for Russian.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Clayton; Provenzano, Nolen

    1981-01-01

    Situation comedy (sitcom) dialogs that are included in PLATO lessons for first year Russian students are described. These comprehension exercises make use of both the touch panel and the audio capabilities of PLATO. The sitcom dialogs were written by a native speaker of Russian and are based on the vocabulary in the textbook plus a small number of…

  9. Peers on Socrates and Plato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, Jim

    2014-01-01

    There is more to be said about two of the topics Chris Peers addresses in his article "Freud, Plato and Irigaray: A morpho-logic of teaching and learning" (2012, Educational Philosophy and Theory, 44, 760-774), namely the Socratic method of teaching and Plato's stance with regard to women and feminism. My purpose in this article is…

  10. Phusis and Nomos in Plato

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    Zahra Nouri Sanghdehi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest problems in Plato that appears in different forms in his works is the relation of nomos and phusis. This thesis has been in fifth century B.C as the contradiction of phusis and nomos among big thinkers. In this essay, we tried to investigate the relation of phusis and nomos in Plato’s thoughts according to current theories of the contradiction of these in dialogues Gorgias, Republic and Protagoras. Plato tries to minimize consequences of belief to contradiction of phusis and nomos in social and political life by assertion large scale relation between phusis and nomos. Plato depicts the ultimate solution of this problem in Law. There he accounts nomos as raised from phusis that is sub sovereignty of divine. Indeed union of phusis and gods in Plato’s thought is sanction for the identity of phusis and nomos.

  11. What is Plato? Inference and Allusion in Plato's "Sophist."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quandahl, Ellen

    1989-01-01

    Discusses inference and allusion in the dialogue in Plato's Sophist. Examines the sense in which a locution is used, distinguishing among senses of the verb to be, and sets the ball rolling for the development of logic and the whole metaphysics of categories of being. (RAE)

  12. The Method of Hypothesis in Plato's Philosophy

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    Malihe Aboie Mehrizi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the examination of method of hypothesis in Plato's philosophy. This method, respectively, will be examined in three dialogues of Meno, Phaedon and Republic in which it is explicitly indicated. It will be shown the process of change of Plato’s attitude towards the position and usage of the method of hypothesis in his realm of philosophy. In Meno, considering the geometry, Plato attempts to introduce a method that can be used in the realm of philosophy. But, ultimately in Republic, Plato’s special attention to the method and its importance in the philosophical investigations, leads him to revise it. Here, finally Plato introduces the particular method of philosophy, i.e., the dialectic

  13. Plato's Anti-Kohlbergian Program for Moral Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, Mark E.

    2016-01-01

    Following Lawrence Kohlberg it has been commonplace to regard Plato's moral theory as "intellectualist", where Plato supposedly believes that becoming virtuous requires nothing other than "philosophical knowledge or intuition of the ideal form of the good". This is a radical misunderstanding of Plato's educational programme,…

  14. THEORY OF LOVE IN PLATO'S PHILOSOPHY

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    ZOHREH MOZAFARI

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a philosophical analysis of the phenomenon of Plato’s love. It is noted that a large number of works are devoted to the philosophy of Plato’s love, but not all aspects of his philosophy are studied, for example the problems of erotosophy of Plato. Phenomenon of love interested philosophers since ancient times. The first attempts to explain the phenomenon of love appeared in ancient times. These attempts were made by ancient philosophers Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. Platonism is a multifaceted teaching; identification of all possibilities of Plato’s erotic philosophy which can supplement other fields of philosophy is important and topical. 

  15. Quoting Plato in Porphyrius' Cuestiones homericas

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    Lucía Rodríguez‑Noriega Guillén

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the quotations of Plato in Porphyry’s Homeric Questions,including their typology (literal quotation, allusion, paraphrase, etc., their beingor not direct citations, their function in the work, and their possible parallels inother authors.

  16. Plato's problem an introduction to mathematical platonism

    CERN Document Server

    Panza, M

    2013-01-01

    What is mathematics about? And how can we have access to the reality it is supposed to describe? The book tells the story of this problem, first raised by Plato, through the views of Aristotle, Proclus, Kant, Frege, Gödel, Benacerraf, up to the most recent debate on mathematical platonism.

  17. The PLATO 2.0 mission

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rauer, H.; et al., [Unknown; Hekker, S.

    2014-01-01

    PLATO 2.0 has recently been selected for ESA’s M3 launch opportunity (2022/24). Providing accurate key planet parameters (radius, mass, density and age) in statistical numbers, it addresses fundamental questions such as: How do planetary systems form and evolve? Are there other systems with planets

  18. Results of the 1975 Delaware PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    During the Spring semester of 1975, the University of Delaware initiated a PLATO project with the dual purpose of demonstrating how a computer system might function in a university and of evaluating what part such a system might play in the future of the university and its supporting community. The demonstration phase of the project, which…

  19. Socrates, Plato, "Eros" and Liberal Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPherran, Mark L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper focuses on the educational method--the "elenchos"--of Plato's Socrates, arguing, against some prominent interpretations, that it is love, both "eros" and "philia", that is the key that links Socrates' philosophy with his education. This analysis, of course, raises some difficult questions regarding the relationship between teacher and…

  20. Plato's Protagoras: Professional Models, Ethical Concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Marshall W.

    1983-01-01

    In Plato's model his clear criticism of Protagorean careerism and his negotiation with Socratic radicalism shows he is a centrist cultivating criticism and open discourse. In an age when academe seems to have lost a sense of its identify and function in society, its most enduring contributions are criticism and discourse. (MLW)

  1. What scientists can learn from Plato's Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Conferences and scientific meetings are as old as science itself. The ancient Greeks where (in)famous for organizing so-called symposiums. During a symposium (from Greek, drinking together), attendees followed a program that contained both social and scientific aspects, focused around a certain topic. Whilst drinking and eating, all participants were expected to share their vision on the topic of interest by giving an oral presentation. The goal of these meetings was to arrive at a new common understanding and to come closer to the truth. Plato et al. knew very well how to organize an effective scientific conference, which should make use overthink the way we are organizing present-day conferences. Scientific meetings aim to connect researchers, share research and unravel the truth. The question is now: how do we get this done effectively? Plato knew that discussing science with strangers is difficult and he believed that talking about heavy matter could be done best when combined with social events. What if we try to go back to the times of Plato and model our conferences after the ancient symposiums? We might drop laying on couches and covering ourselves in ivy and flowers. However, a mix of social and scientific events will contribute to achieving the ultimate goal of why scientists go to conferences: to connect, to share and to unravel the truth.

  2. From Plato to Orwell: Utopian Rhetoric in a Dystopian World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deatherage, Scott

    Plato's "Republic" and George Orwell's "1984" both posit visionary worlds, one where humans are virtuous and understand what Plato refers to as "the Good," and the other where citizens are pawns of a government which uses language as a form of tyranny and control. Despite these overarching differences in philosophical…

  3. A Summary of Plato Curriculum and Research Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Elisabeth R.

    PLATO (programmed Logic for Automatic Teaching Operations) is a computer-based teaching system which was developed in the Coordinated Science Laboratory at the University of Illinois to explore the possibilities of automation in individual instruction. The history of the PLATO program is summarized here, along with a list of courses which used…

  4. From Plato to Orwell: Utopian Rhetoric in a Dystopian World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deatherage, Scott

    Plato's "Republic" and George Orwell's "1984" both posit visionary worlds, one where humans are virtuous and understand what Plato refers to as "the Good," and the other where citizens are pawns of a government which uses language as a form of tyranny and control. Despite these overarching differences in philosophical…

  5. Plato the Pederast: Rhetoric and Cultural Procreation in the Dialogues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ervin, Elizabeth

    1993-01-01

    Examines Plato's Dialogues by reading them through two cultural lenses: the role of eros in classical Greece and its analogous relationship to language and rhetoric; and the educational function of eros within the ancient institution of pederasty. Shows how the cultural values of ancient Greece manifested themselves in Plato's erotic educational…

  6. Plato's Philosophy of Education and the Common Core Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Madonna M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines Plato's Philosophy of Education asking what he would say about the current Common Core initiative which is to better help students to become college and career ready. Plato would be in favor of the common core in as much as the standards are tied to specific skills needed in various career jobs as he was a proponent of…

  7. Fourth Summative Report of the Delaware PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    A brief history of the Delaware PLATO project and descriptions of new developments in facilities, applications, user services, research, evaluation, and courseware produced since the Third Summative Report (1978) are provided, as well as an overview of PLATO applications at the University of Delaware. Sample lessons, illustrations, and activity…

  8. Fifth Summative Report of the Delaware PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    A brief history of the Delaware PLATO project and descriptions of the new developments in facilities, applications, user services, research, evaluation, and courseware produced since the Fourth Summative Report (1979) are provided, as well as an overview of PLATO applications at the University of Delaware. Sample lessons, illustrations, and…

  9. Third Summative Report of the Delaware PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    Descriptions of new developments in the areas of facilities, applications, user services, support staff, research, evaluation, and courseware production since the Second Summative Report (1977) are provided, as well as a summative overview of PLATO applications at the University of Delaware. Through the purchase of its own PLATO system, this…

  10. Plato's ghost the modernist transformation of mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    Plato's Ghost is the first book to examine the development of mathematics from 1880 to 1920 as a modernist transformation similar to those in art, literature, and music. Jeremy Gray traces the growth of mathematical modernism from its roots in problem solving and theory to its interactions with physics, philosophy, theology, psychology, and ideas about real and artificial languages. He shows how mathematics was popularized, and explains how mathematical modernism not only gave expression to the work of mathematicians and the professional image they sought to create for themselves, but how modernism also introduced deeper and ultimately unanswerable questions

  11. Pemikiran Epistemologi Barat: dari Plato Sampai Gonseth

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    Nunu Burhanuddin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper riviewing the Western epistemology thought. The theme focuses on Plato to Gonseth. The Epistemology that referred in this article, is to think about "how humans acquire knowledge?". From this then appear four types of sect modern western epistemology thought, namely: sect of empiricism, rationalism sect, kantinian sect, sect of positivism. Furthermore, the social positivism sciences developed by Comte leaves serious problems associated with the loss of the role of the subject. This problem being the background of epistemology philosophy appears that by Emund Husserl developed through the phenomenology, Habermas through hermeneutics, and Ferdinand Gonseth through critical theory.

  12. The PLATO 2.0 Mission

    CERN Document Server

    Rauer, H; Aerts, C; Appourchaux, T; Benz, W; Brandeker, A; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J; Deleuil, M; Gizon, L; Güdel, M; Janot-Pacheco, E; Mas-Hesse, M; Pagano, I; Piotto, G; Pollacco, D; Santos, N C; Smith, A; -C., J; Suárez,; Szabó, R; Udry, S; Adibekyan, V; Alibert, Y; Almenara, J -M; Amaro-Seoane, P; Eiff, M Ammler-von; Antonello, E; Ball, W; Barnes, S; Baudin, F; Belkacem, K; Bergemann, M; Birch, A; Boisse, I; Bonomo, A S; Borsa, F; Brandão, I M; Brocato, E; Brun, S; Burleigh, M; Burston, R; Cabrera, J; Cassisi, S; Chaplin, W; Charpinet, S; Chiappini, C; Csizmadia, Sz; Cunha, M; Damasso, M; Davies, M B; Deeg, H J; Fialho, F de Oliveira; DÍaz, R F; Dreizler, S; Dreyer, C; Eggenberger, P; Ehrenreich, D; Eigmüller, P; Erikson, A; Farmer, R; Feltzing, S; Figueira, P; Forveille, T; Fridlund, M; García, R; Giuffrida, G; Godolt, M; da Silva, J Gomes; Goupil, M -J; Granzer, T; Grenfell, J L; Grotsch-Noels, A; Günther, E; Haswell, C A; Hatzes, A P; Hébrard, G; Hekker, S; Helled, R; Heng, K; Jenkins, J M; Khodachenko, M L; Kislyakova, K G; Kley, W; Kolb, U; Krivova, N; Kupka, F; Lammer, H; Lanza, A F; Lebreton, Y; Magrin, D; Marcos-Arenal, P; Marrese, P M; Marques, J P; Martins, J; Mathis, S; Mathur, S; Messina, S; Miglio, A; Montalban, J; Montalto, M; Monteiro, M J P F G; Moradi, H; Moravveji, E; Mordasini, C; Morel, T; Mortier, A; Nascimbeni, V; Nielsen, M B; Noack, L; Norton, A J; Ofir, A; Oshagh, M; Ouazzani, R -M; Pápics, P; Parro, V C; Petit, P; Plez, B; Poretti, E; Quirrenbach, A; Ragazzoni, R; Raimondo, G; Rainer, M; Reese, D R; Redmer, R; Reffert, S; Rojas-Ayala, B; Roxburgh, I W; Solanki, S K; Salmon, S; Santerne, A; Schneider, J; Schou, J; Schuh, S; Schunker, H; Silva-Valio, A; Silvotti, R; Skillen, I; Snellen, I; Sohl, F; Sousa, A S; Sozzetti, A; Stello, D; Strassmeier, K G; Švanda, M; Szabó, G M; Tkachenko, A; Valencia, D; van Grootel, V; Vauclair, S D; Ventura, P; Wagner, F W; Walton, N A; Weingrill, J; Werner, S C; Wheatley, P J; Zwintz, K

    2013-01-01

    PLATO 2.0 is a mission candidate for ESA's M3 launch opportunity (2022/24). It addresses fundamental questions such as: How do planetary systems form and evolve? Are there other systems with planets like ours, able to develop life? The PLATO 2.0 instrument consists of 34 small aperture telescopes providing a wide field-of-view and a large photometric magnitude range. It targets bright stars in wide fields to detect and characterize planets down to Earth-size by photometric transits, whose masses can then be determined by ground-based radial-velocity follow-up measurements. Asteroseismology will be performed for stars <=11mag to obtain highly accurate stellar parameters, including masses and ages. The combination of bright targets and asteroseismology results in high accuracy for the bulk planet parameters: 2%, 4-10% and 10% for planet radii, masses and ages, respectively. The foreseen baseline observing strategy includes two long pointings (2-3 years) to detect and bulk characterize planets reaching into t...

  13. Plato on Metaphysical Explanation: Does 'Participating' Mean Nothing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine J. Thomas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available According to Aristotle, Plato's efforts at metaphysical explanation not only fail, they are nonsensical. In particular, Plato's appeals to Forms as metaphysically explanatory of the sensibles that participate in them is "empty talk" since "'participating' means nothing" (Met. 992a28-9. I defend Plato against Aristotle's charge by identifying a particular, substantive model of metaphysical predication as the favored model of Plato's late ontology. The model posits two basic metaphysical predication relations: self-predication and participation. In order to understand the participation relation, it is important first to understand how Plato's Forms are self-predicative paradigms. According to the favored model, Forms are self-predicative paradigms insofar as they are ideal, abstract encoders of structural essences. Sensibles participate in Forms by exemplifying the structures encoded in the Forms. Given plausible conditions on metaphysical explanation, Plato's appeals to abstract Forms as metaphysically explanatory of sensibles is a reasonable competitor for Aristotle's appeals to natural, substantial forms. At the very least, Plato's appeals to a participation relation are not empty.

  14. Technology validation of the PLATO CCD at ESA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prod'homme, Thibaut; Verhoeve, Peter; Beaufort, Thierry; Duvet, Ludovic; Lemmel, Frederic; Smit, Hans; Blommaert, Sander; Oosterbroek, Tim; van der Luijt, Cornelis; Visser, Ivo; Heijnen, Jerko; Butler, Bart

    2016-07-01

    PLATO { PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars { is the third medium-class mission to be selected in the European Space Agency (ESA) Science and Robotic Exploration Cosmic Vision programme. Due for launch in 2025, the payload makes use of a large format (8 cm x 8 cm) Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs) the e2v CCD270 operated at 4 MHz. The manufacture of such large device in large quantity constitutes an unprecedented effort. To de-risk the PLATO CCD procurement and aid the mission definition process, ESA's Payload Technology Validation team is characterizing the electro-optical performance of a number of PLATO devices before and after proton irradiation.

  15. A scientific approach to Plato's Atlantis

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    Massimo Rapisarda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The myth of Atlantis is hard to die. This attempt to use scientific evidence to give it the final smash ends up with the doubt that it might not be totally unsubstantiated. The time of the supposed existence of Atlantis (around twelve thousand years ago was, in fact, characterized by technological revolutions, acknowledged by archaeology, and abrupt climate changes, documented by geology. In principle, it cannot therefore be ruled out that some of those dramatic events left a memory, later used by Plato as a basis for its tale. The climate changes involved the majority of the northern hemisphere, thus all the ancient civilizations (Egyptian, Mesopotamian, Indian and Chinese could have preserved reminiscence, but it is clear that the events occurring closer to Greece would have been more accessible to Plato. Among the Mediterranean sites that experienced the cataclysms of the beginning of the Holocene, a good candidate to host a primordial civilization might have been the archipelago then existing in the Strait of Sicily, a natural maritime link between Tunisia and Italy, prized by the presence of an obsidian source at Pantelleria. Eleven thousand five hundred years ago, a sudden sea level rise erased the archipelago, submerging the possible settlements, but Pantelleria obsidian ores are still there and could provide a significant clue. In fact, the potential discovery of artefacts, originating from a source now submerged by the sea level rise, would imply that the collection of the mineral took place when it was still emerged, namely at the time of Atlantis. Even if such discovery would not be sufficient to prove the existence of the mythical island, it would be enough to shake up the timeline of the human occupation in the region.

  16. Intra-Socratic Polemics: The Symposia of Plato and Xenophon

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    Gabriel Danzig

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Textual relationships between the two Symposia suggest that Xenophon wrote first, prompting Plato to write Socrates' critique of Phaedrus, to which Xenophon responded by appending his ch. 8.

  17. Rationality and Motivation: Moral Psychology in Plato's Socratic Dialogues

    OpenAIRE

    Ivars Neiders

    2011-01-01

    "Rationality and Motivation: Moral Psychology in Plato's Socratic Dialogues" Annotation The dissertation "Rationality and Motivation: Moral Psychology in Plato's Socratic Dialogues" is a philosophical study of Socratic views in moral psychology. Particular attention is paid to what the author calls (1) Doxastic competence and (2) Orectic competence. It is argued that according to Socrates these two different epistemic relations are important aspects of our self-understanding. The doxast...

  18. What Plato and Murdoch Think About Love

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    Shadi Shakouri

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available There are many interpretations of love and lots of scholars write and talk on love; however, what exactly is the meaning of love? Iris Murdoch’s works are an accumulation of emotional relationships and feelings of love. Her great subject is love, both sexual and non-sexual, and her characters are the portrayal of a small group of people caught up in convoluted ties of love and hate, with Eros ruling over them (Cohen 22. Murdoch was one of the most respected British writers and philosophers of the second half of the twentieth century and, of course, the postwar period. In Murdoch’s novels, love is one of the central themes—marriage, as the institution of love, more often binds than frees. Her characters are mainly ego-centric people who struggle to love and are often overwhelmed by the factor of self-obsession, jealousy, ambition, fascination with suffering and charismatic power. They are absolutely ordinary people with a consuming demand for love, and mental and physical exile. Murdoch was inspired by Plato’s ideas in many ways. Like art, here again Plato’s idea of love is more skeptical than Murdoch’s, whereas Murdoch kept it only as a way to the Good, creation, and happiness. Murdoch and Plato saw love more as a Freudian concept, the Eros, the word that comes from the name of the first Greek god of love. Both the philosophers, Plato and Murdoch, believed that this erotic longing and desires revived by Eros can led to a new direction, a way toward virtue and truth. Her protagonist or marginalized characters are usually tackling it with either vulgarity or the heavenly, which results in creation, art or salvation. Murdoch, as a major moral philosopher, usually grasps the chances to encapsulate her moral visions in her works, and created novels that should be counted as meditations on human love and goodness. Keywords: Eros, erotic love and real artwork, moral philosopher, The Black Prince

  19. Reversing Plato’s Anti-Democratism: Castoriadis’ “Quirky” Plato

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy C. Hamblet

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the conflicting "loves" of Cornelius Castoriadis--his love for the ancients, and especially Plato, and for the common person of the demos. A detailed study of Castoriadis' analysis of Plato's Statesman exposes that Castoriadis attempts to resolve the paradox by rereading Plato as a radical democrat. I argue that this unorthodox reading is at best "quirky, " (a charge Castoriadis levels at Plato) at worst a groundless sophism. However, I conjecture that Castoriadis' readin...

  20. Eugenics concept: from Plato to present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güvercin, C H; Arda, B

    2008-01-01

    All prospective studies and purposes to improve cure and create a race that would be exempt of various diseases and disabilities are generally defined as eugenic procedures. They aim to create the "perfect" and "higher" human being by eliminating the "unhealthy" prospective persons. All of the supporting actions taken in order to enable the desired properties are called positive eugenic actions; the elimination of undesired properties are defined as negative eugenics. In addition, if such applications and approaches target the public as a whole, they are defined as macro-eugenics. On the other hand, if they only aim at individuals and/or families, they are called micro-eugenics. As generally acknowledged, Galton re-introduced eugenic proposals, but their roots stretch as far back as Plato. Eugenic thoughts and developments were widely accepted in many different countries beginning with the end of the 19th to the first half of the 20th centuries. Initially, the view of negative eugenics that included compulsory sterilizations of handicapped, diseased and "lower" classes, resulted in tens of thousands being exterminated especially in the period of Nazi Germany. In the 1930s, the type of micro positive eugenics movement found a place within the pro-natalist policies of a number of countries. However, it was unsuccessful since the policy was not able to become effective enough and totally disappeared in the 1960s. It was no longer a fashionable movement and left a deep impression on public opinion after the long years of war. However, developments in genetics and its related fields have now enabled eugenic thoughts to reappear under the spotlight and this is creating new moral dilemmas from an ethical perspective.

  1. Positure in Plato's Laws: An Introduction to Figuration on Civic Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Joshua M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of the research was to determine the benefits of applying the new Figuration philosophy of dance, based in part on Plato, to civic education. Design/methodology: A close phenomenological reading of Plato's "The Laws," with a strategic focus on its account of the concept of posture. Findings: Plato considers posture to be…

  2. Plato's Cosmic Theology: A Rationale for a Polytheistic Astrology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques, André

    2015-05-01

    Plato's cosmology influenced classical astronomy and religion, but was in turn influenced by the polytheistic context of its time. Throughout his texts, including the cosmological treatise Timaeus, and the discussions on the soul in the Phaedrus, Plato (c.428-c.348 BC) established what can be generalised as Platonic cosmological thought. An understanding of the philosophical and mythical levels of Platonic thought can provide a rationale for polytheistic and astrological worldviews, pointing to some cosmological continuity, alongside major shifts, from ancient Greek religion to the astrological thought of ancient astronomers such as Claudius Ptolemy.

  3. ESA's CCD test bench for the PLATO mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaufort, Thierry; Duvet, Ludovic; Bloemmaert, Sander; Lemmel, Frederic; Prod'homme, Thibaut; Verhoeve, Peter; Smit, Hans; Butler, Bart; van der Luijt, Cornelis; Heijnen, Jerko; Visser, Ivo

    2016-08-01

    PLATO { PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars { is the third medium-class mission to be selected in the European Space Agency (ESA) Science and Robotic Exploration Cosmic Vision programme. Due for launch in 2025, the payload makes use of a large format (8 cm x 8 cm) Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs), the e2v CCD270 operated at 4 MHz and at -70 C. To de-risk the PLATO CCD qualification programme initiated in 2014 and support the mission definition process, ESA's Payload Technology Validation section from the Future Missions Office has developed a dedicated test bench.

  4. A Data Bank Experience on the PLATO System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Wallace; St-Denis, Richard

    1980-01-01

    Current theories on terminology and lexicography which underlie the logical components of the terminology bank set up on the PLATO system and established standards are briefly presented. The units that were essential to developing the bank are discussed. References are listed. (Author)

  5. Plato and Play: Taking Education Seriously in Ancient Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Angour, Armand

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the author outlines Plato's notions of play in ancient Greek culture and shows how the philosopher's views on play can be best appreciated against the background of shifting meanings and evaluations of play in classical Greece. Play--in various forms such as word play, ritual, and music--proved central to the development of…

  6. Stonecutter Mills, Inc., Isothermal Community College. PLATO Evaluation Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Greg

    Stonecutter Mills, Inc., is a textile manufacturing company with a major production facility in Spindale, North Carolina. In the past few years, Stonecutter Mills employees have been given an opportunity to spend up to 2 hours a week on company time to participate in PLATO-supported learning at Isothermal Community College. Employees could choose…

  7. Future development of the PLATO Observatory for Antarctic science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashley, Michael C. B.; Bonner, Colin S.; Everett, Jon R.; Lawrence, Jon S.; Luong-Van, Daniel; McDaid, Scott; McLaren, Campbell; Storey, John W. V.

    2010-07-01

    PLATO is a self-contained robotic observatory built into two 10-foot shipping containers. It has been successfully deployed at Dome A on the Antarctic plateau since January 2008, and has accumulated over 730 days of uptime at the time of writing. PLATO provides 0.5{1kW of continuous electrical power for a year from diesel engines running on Jet-A1, supplemented during the summertime with solar panels. One of the 10-foot shipping containers houses the power system and fuel, the other provides a warm environment for instruments. Two Iridium satellite modems allow 45 MB/day of data to be transferred across the internet. Future enhancements to PLATO, currently in development, include a more modular design, using lithium iron-phosphate batteries, higher power output, and a light-weight low-power version for eld deployment from a Twin Otter aircraft. Technologies used in PLATO include a CAN (Controller Area Network) bus, high-reliability PC/104 com- puters, ultracapacitors for starting the engines, and fault-tolerant redundant design.

  8. The CGE-PLATO Electronic Laboratory Station Structure and Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, J. P.

    An electronic laboratory station was designed for student use in learning electronic instrumentation and measurement by means of the computer-guided experimentation (CGE) system. The station features rack-mounted electronic laboratory equipment on a laboratory table adjacent to a PLATO IV terminal. An integrated logic system behind the laboratory…

  9. Pursuing the Good, Ethics and Metaphysics in Plato s Republic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Douglas; Cairns; Fritz-Gregor; Herrmann; Terry; Penner

    2008-01-01

    ‘Pursuing the good’ is an old subject in both social history of ancient Greece and Greek philosophy studies. There is hardly anything new when we talk about virtue or morality in the time of Plato and Aristotle. In the area of Greek history, many books and articles on or relevant to that

  10. Eschatological narrative in Plato: between logos and myth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesc Casadesús Bordoy

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In his dialogues, Plato frequently resorted to alternate and intertwine his dialectic expositions with images and allegories, aiming to illustrate his arguments. This paper analyses in detail his use of the opposition between logos and myth tointroduce his descriptions of Hades

  11. Go Tell Alcibiades: Tragedy, Comedy, and Rhetoric in Plato's "Symposium"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crick, Nathan; Poulakos, John

    2008-01-01

    Plato's "Symposium" is a significant but neglected part of his elaborate and complex attitude toward rhetoric. Unlike the intellectual discussion of the "Gorgias" or the unscripted conversation of the "Phaedrus," the "Symposium" stages a feast celebrating and driven by the forces of "Eros." A luxuriously stylish performance rather than a rational…

  12. The Cost of PLATO in a University Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    1983-01-01

    This analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the University of Delaware's own PLATO system discusses the initial expense of acquiring the system, decreases in unit cost as number of users increased, capital investment in hardware, expenditures and funding sources, comparisons of actual and projected costs, and benefits of individualized instruction.…

  13. Second Summative Report of the Delaware PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Fred T.

    Begun on an experimental basis in March 1975, the ongoing PLATO project at the University of Delaware has become an established part of the University's academic program. This descriptive report is divided into three sections: (1) project history and development, including organization, utilization, instructor and author training, and projections…

  14. Dodecahedrane—The chemical transliteration of Plato's universe (A Review)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquette, Leo A.

    1982-07-01

    The development of chemical interest in three of Plato's five convex polyhedra is described from an historical perspective. The successful synthesis of 1,16-dimethyldodecahedrane and its structural characteristics are outlined. Finally, an account of recent work leading to the still more aesthetically appealing and ultrasymmetric parent dodecahedrane is given.

  15. Arete and physics: The lesson of Plato's "Timaeus"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, John R.

    Plato's Timaeus is traditionally read as a work dedicated to the sole purpose of describing the origin and nature of the cosmos, as a straightforward attempt by Plato to produce a peri phuseos treatise. In accord with this reading, the body of Timaeus' monologue is then seen as nothing more than an attempt by Plato to convey his own cosmological doctrines. I propose an alternative to the view that the Timaeus is nothing more than a textbook of Platonic physics. The Timaeus is rather squarely focused on the human being, in her moral and political dimensions, and on her relation to the natural world as a whole. Ultimately, this account of the human being is intended to provide part of the answer to the question of how society can produce good citizens and leaders, and thus serves to provide a theoretical basis for the practices of paideia. When viewed in this light many of the curious features of the Timaeus appear less strange. The various parts of the dialogue: the dramatic introduction, Critias' tale of the Ancient Athenians, and Timaeus' monologue can be seen as each contributing to an investigation of a single topic. It further allows us to understand why Plato chooses to employ Timaeus the Locrian as the principle speaker of the dialogue rather than Socrates. Finally, when read in this way, the Timaeus no longer appears as an outlier in the Platonic corpus, as a work devoted to a radically different subject matter than the rest of his writings. It can be seen as dedicated to the same issues which preoccupied Plato throughout his entire life, as about the determination of the best life and providing the tools with which to realize it.

  16. Teaching Early Mathematics with PLATO[R] Software: An Overview of the New PLATO Elementary Mathematics Curricula and How To Use Them. Technical Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Bill; Foshay, Rob; Morris, Barbara

    The "PLATO[R] Math Expeditions" and "PLATO[R] Projects for the Real World" curricula are designed to implement effective, research-based instructional practices. "Math Expeditions" is designed to give elementary grade users the mathematics skills and practice needed to solve real-life problems. Across the eight…

  17. THE JOURNEY OF TRUTH: FROM PLATO TO ZOLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ribut Basuki

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Western theater theory and criticism is generally considered to be set forth by the Greeks. Plato was "the first theater critic" with his negative comments about theater owing to his idealistic views about "the truth." Then came Aristotle who used a different viewpoint from that of Plato, saying that there is "truth" in theater. However, hostile criticism on theater came back in the Middle Ages, championed by Tertulian before Aristotelian theory was revived by the neo-classicists such as Scaliger and Castelvetro. Theater theory and criticism discourse was then made more alive by the romanticists who disagreed with the neo-classicists' rigid rules on theater. As the influence of science became dominant in the theater world, naturalism and realism emerged and became the mainstream of theater theory and criticism until well into the twentieth century.

  18. The necessity of dialectics according to Plato and Adorno

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Anne-Marie Eggert

    2009-01-01

    The paper deals with the notion of philosophy as, on the one hand, an academic or scientific discipline and, on the other, something perhaps superior to the disciplines and in any case dealing with what is not a 'disciplinary' matter. Through an interpretation of Plato's concept of dialectics and...... and Adorno's understanding of philosophy as expression (Ausdruck) it is proposed that this two-fold nature of philosophy is what makes dialectics necessary....

  19. Optical and dark characterization of the PLATO CCD at ESA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoeve, Peter; Prod'homme, Thibaut; Oosterbroek, Tim; Duvet, Ludovic; Beaufort, Thierry; Blommaert, Sander; Butler, Bart; Heijnen, Jerko; Lemmel, Frederic; van der Luijt, Cornelis; Smit, Hans; Visser, Ivo

    2016-07-01

    PLATO - PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars - is the third medium-class mission (M3) to be selected in the European Space Agency (ESA) Science and Robotic Exploration Cosmic Vision programme. It is due for launch in 2025 with the main objective to find and study terrestrial planets in the habitable zone around solar-like stars. The payload consists of >20 cameras; with each camera comprising 4 Charge-Coupled Devices (CCDs), a large number of flight model devices procured by ESA shall ultimately be integrated on the spacecraft. The CCD270 - specially designed and manufactured by e2v for the PLATO mission - is a large format (8 cm x 8 cm) back-illuminated device operating at 4 MHz pixel rate and coming in two variants: full frame and frame transfer. In order to de-risk the PLATO CCD procurement and aid the mission definition process, ESA's Payload Technology Validation section is currently validating the PLATO CCD270. This validation consists in demonstrating that the device achieves its specified electrooptical performance in the relevant environment: operated at 4 MHz, at cold and before and after proton irradiation. As part of this validation, CCD270 devices have been characterized in the dark as well as optically with respect to performance parameters directly relevant for the photometric application of the CCDs. Dark tests comprise the measurement of gain sensitivity to bias voltages, charge injection tests, and measurement of hot and variable pixels after irradiation. In addition, the results of measurements of Quantum Efficiency for a range of angles of incidence, intra- pixel response (non-)uniformity, and response to spot illumination, before and after proton irradiation. In particular, the effect of radiation induced degradation of the charge transfer efficiency on the measured charge in a star-like spot has been studied as a function of signal level and of position on the pixel grid, Also, the effect of various levels of background light on the

  20. The Philosopher's Arete or theStructure of Plato's Parmenides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Gutierrez

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The controversy conceming the unity of Plato's Parmenides and the meaning of its first part is stillongoing. The A. proposes a solution, pointing out its structural coincidence with the Republic's simile of the line. This leads him to confine young Socrates in the segment that corresponds to óuivoux and old Parmenides in the vór¡olc; segment. As the one who "possesses insight" of truth based on his apprehension of the One-Good. Parmenides is the actual representative of the philosopher's arete.

  1. Tibial plato leveling osteotomy / Osteotomia de nivelamento do plato da tíbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Maria Matera

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The tibial plateau leveling osteotomy (TPLO is a relatively new and innovative surgical treatment for the cranial cruciate ligament rupture in the canine species. The real intent of the procedure is to provide functional stability to the stifle joint by eliminating or neutralizing the cranial tibial thrust during weight bearing instead to restore the cranial cruciate ligament function. The proposal of this study is to report a review of the TPLO procedure, emphasizing procedure, surgical technique, post operative care and complications. The TPLO procedure consists in a radial osteotomy in the tibial plato and rotation of the caudal plateau in order to obtain a desired angle. After the leveling of the tibial plateau, a bone plate and screws are used to stabilize the osteotomy until bone is healed up. The complications that have been associated with the procedure include tibial tuberosity fracture and patellar tendon tendinosis. This procedure has become increasingly more popular for surgical treatment of cranial cruciate ligament injuries in large breed dog. The long term clinical results have not been completely elucidated yet. It has been showed that this technique doesn’t halt the degenerative joint disease.A osteotomia do platô da tíbia (TPLO é um tratamento relativamente novo e inovador para a ruptura do ligamento cruzado cranial (RLCC na espécie canina. Ao invés de restaurar a função do ligamento, o procedimento promove estabilidade funcional para a articulação do joelho, por eliminar ou neutralizar a força tibial cranial durante a sustentação de peso. A proposta do presente estudo é revisar a técnica de TPLO, enfatizando o procedimento, técnica cirúrgica, cuidados pós-operatórios e complicações. A técnica da TPLO consiste na realização de uma osteotomia circular do platô da tíbia com rotação de sua porção caudal até a obtenção do ângulo desejado. Após o nivelamento do platô da tíbia, placa e parafusos

  2. Reversing Plato’s Anti-Democratism: Castoriadis’ “Quirky” Plato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamblet, Wendy C.

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the conflicting "loves" of Cornelius Castoriadis--his love for the ancients, and especially Plato, and for the common person of the demos. A detailed study of Castoriadis' analysis of Plato's Statesman exposes that Castoriadis attempts to resolve the paradox by rereading Plato as a radical democrat. I argue that this unorthodox reading is at best "quirky, " (a charge Castoriadis levels at Plato at worst a groundless sophism. However, I conjecture that Castoriadis' reading may not constitute a serious attempt to describe a Platonic politics, so much as a prescriptive reading of what otherwise might have been, given certain strands of political generosity evident elsewhere in Plato's corpus.

  3. Radiation, Thermal Gradient and Weight: a threefold dilemma for PLATO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, Demetrio; Ragazzoni, Roberto; Bruno, Giordano; Piazza, Daniele; Borsa, Francesco; Ghigo, Mauro; Mogulsky, Valery; Bergomi, Maria; Biondi, Federico; Chinellato, Simonetta; Dima, Marco; Farinato, Jacopo; Greggio, Davide; Gullieuszik, Marco; Marafatto, Luca; Viotto, Valentina; Munari, Matteo; Pagano, Isabella; Sicilia, Daniela; Basso, Stefano; Spiga, Daniele; Bandy, Timothy; Brändli, Mathias; Benz, Willy; De Roche, Thierry; Rieder, Martin; Brandeker, Alexis; Klebor, Maximilian; Schweitzer, Mario; Wieser, Matthias; Erikson, Anders; Rauer, Heike

    2016-07-01

    The project PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) is one of the selected medium class (M class) missions in the framework of the ESA Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 program. The mean scientific goal of PLATO is the discovery and study of extrasolar planetary systems by means of planetary transits detection. The opto mechanical subsystem of the payload is made of 32 normal telescope optical units (N-TOUs) and 2 fast telescope optical units (FTOUs). The optical configuration of each TOU is an all refractive design based on six properly optimized lenses. In the current baseline, in front of each TOU a Suprasil window is foreseen. The main purposes of the entrance window are to shield the following lenses from possible damaging high energy radiation and to mitigate the thermal gradient that the first optical element will experience during the launch from ground to space environment. In contrast, the presence of the window increases the overall mass by a non-negligible quantity. We describe here the radiation and thermal analysis and their impact on the quality and risks assessment, summarizing the trade-off process with pro and cons on having or dropping the entrance window in the optical train.

  4. Manufacturing and alignment tolerance analysis through Montecarlo approach for PLATO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, Demetrio; Ragazzoni, Roberto; Bergomi, Maria; Biondi, Federico; Chinellato, Simonetta; Dima, Marco; Farinato, Jacopo; Greggio, Davide; Gullieuszik, Marco; Marafatto, Luca; Viotto, Valentina; Munari, Matteo; Pagano, Isabella; Sicilia, Daniela; Basso, Stefano; Borsa, Francesco; Ghigo, Mauro; Spiga, Daniele; Bandy, Timothy; Brändli, Mathias; Benz, Willy; Bruno, Giordano; De Roche, Thierry; Piazza, Daniele; Rieder, Martin; Brandeker, Alexis; Klebor, Maximilian; Mogulsky, Valery; Schweitzer, Mario; Wieser, Matthias; Erikson, Anders; Rauer, Heike

    2016-07-01

    The project PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) is one of the selected medium class (M class) missions in the framework of the ESA Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 program. The main scientific goal of PLATO is the discovery and study of extrasolar planetary systems by means of planetary transits detection. According to the current baseline, the scientific payload consists of 34 all refractive telescopes having small aperture (120mm) and wide field of view (diameter greater than 37 degrees) observing over 0.5-1 micron wavelength band. The telescopes are mounted on a common optical bench and are divided in four families of eight telescopes with an overlapping line-of-sight in order to maximize the science return. Remaining two telescopes will be dedicated to support on-board star-tracking system and will be specialized on two different photometric bands for science purposes. The performance requirement, adopted as merit function during the analysis, is specified as 90% enclosed energy contained in a square having size 2 pixels over the whole field of view with a depth of focus of +/-20 micron. Given the complexity of the system, we have followed a Montecarlo analysis approach for manufacturing and alignment tolerances. We will describe here the tolerance method and the preliminary results, speculating on the assumed risks and expected performances.

  5. Stochastic Game Analysis and Latency Awareness for Self-Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Tactic: is a primitive action that corresponds to a single step of adaptation, and has an associated: (i) cost/benefit impact on the different quality...dimensions, and (ii) latency, which corresponds to the time it takes since a tactic is started until its effect is observed.2 For instance, in... Gandhi et al. considers the setup time of servers, and is able to deal with unpredictable changes in load by be- ing conservative about removing servers

  6. Love as an Object of Initiation in Plato's Philosophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Euaggelia Maraggianou

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Initiation ( muvhsh was the first stage of the ancient mysteries celebrating Demeter, the earth-goddess, and her daughter Kore, soon identified with Persephone or Persephasa, a pre-Greek deity of the underworld. Next came the stage of contemplation ( ejpopteiva , at which worshippers were shown a vision of the goddess of Hades. This led them to identify themselves with her, thus reaching the highest form of happiness. The Eleusinian Mysteries were inseparably linked to the Orphic doctrine, which in its turn influenced the thought of Plato. Plato sees love as an object of initiation and as one of the greatest mysteries of human existence. Plato’s dialogues, Phaedrus and Symposium, contain expressions borrowed directly from the vocabulary of the Mysteries. Although neither Socrates in Phaedrus nor Diotima in Symposium make any explicit reference to the mystic ceremonies, it is certain that both allude to them in expounding the mysteries of spiritual life. The latter has to start at the stage of physical love in order to end up in the contemplation of Ideas. The mystery into which Socrates is initiated by Diotima is the following: there is a mystic stairway leading from the earth to the sky, from man to God. It is made visible by Love, and its steps are represented by different kinds of beauty. The ascent is a gradual one, with a long stop at each of the stages. In this way Love, disciplined by philosophy and spiritualised by increasing de-personalisation, ends up in the Intellectual, conceiving the latter with an intuitive insight. By this spiritual process, one is purified, led to the road of salvation and enabled to participate in the Divine.

  7. PLATO as it is : A legacy mission for Galactic archaeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miglio, A.; Chiappini, C.; Mosser, B.; Davies, G. R.; Freeman, K.; Girardi, L.; Jofré, P.; Kawata, D.; Rendle, B. M.; Valentini, M.; Casagrande, L.; Chaplin, W. J.; Gilmore, G.; Hawkins, K.; Holl, B.; Appourchaux, T.; Belkacem, K.; Bossini, D.; Brogaard, K.; Goupil, M.-J.; Montalbán, J.; Noels, A.; Anders, F.; Rodrigues, T.; Piotto, G.; Pollacco, D.; Rauer, H.; Prieto, C. Allende; Avelino, P. P.; Babusiaux, C.; Barban, C.; Barbuy, B.; Basu, S.; Baudin, F.; Benomar, O.; Bienaymé, O.; Binney, J.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Bressan, A.; Cacciari, C.; Campante, T. L.; Cassisi, S.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.; Combes, F.; Creevey, O.; Cunha, M. S.; Jong, R. S.; Laverny, P.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Deheuvels, S.; Depagne, É.; Ridder, J.; Matteo, P. Di; Mauro, M. P. Di; Dupret, M.-A.; Eggenberger, P.; Elsworth, Y.; Famaey, B.; Feltzing, S.; García, R. A.; Gerhard, O.; Gibson, B. K.; Gizon, L.; Haywood, M.; Handberg, R.; Heiter, U.; Hekker, S.; Huber, D.; Ibata, R.; Katz, D.; Kawaler, S. D.; Kjeldsen, H.; Kurtz, D. W.; Lagarde, N.; Lebreton, Y.; Lund, M. N.; Majewski, S. R.; Marigo, P.; Martig, M.; Mathur, S.; Minchev, I.; Morel, T.; Ortolani, S.; Pinsonneault, M. H.; Plez, B.; Moroni, P. G. Prada; Pricopi, D.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Reylé, C.; Robin, A.; Roxburgh, I. W.; Salaris, M.; Santiago, B. X.; Schiavon, R.; Serenelli, A.; Sharma, S.; Aguirre, V. Silva; Soubiran, C.; Steinmetz, M.; Stello, D.; Strassmeier, K. G.; Ventura, P.; Ventura, R.; Walton, N. A.; Worley, C. C.

    2017-07-01

    Deciphering the assembly history of the Milky Way is a formidable task, which becomes possible only if one can produce high-resolution chrono-chemo-kinematical maps of the Galaxy. Data from large-scale astrometric and spectroscopic surveys will soon provide us with a well-defined view of the current chemo-kinematical structure of the Milky Way, but will only enable a blurred view on the temporal sequence that led to the present-day Galaxy. As demonstrated by the (ongoing) exploitation of data from the pioneering photometric missions CoRoT, Kepler, and K2, asteroseismology provides the way forward: solar-like oscillating giants are excellent evolutionary clocks thanks to the availability of seismic constraints on their mass and to the tight age-initial-mass relation they adhere to. In this paper we identify five key outstanding questions relating to the formation and evolution of the Milky Way that will need precise and accurate ages for large samples of stars to be addressed, and we identify the requirements in terms of number of targets and the precision on the stellar properties that are needed to tackle such questions. By quantifying the asteroseismic yields expected from PLATO for red-giant stars, we demonstrate that these requirements are within the capabilities of the current instrument design, provided that observations are sufficiently long to identify the evolutionary state and allow robust and precise determination of acoustic-mode frequencies. This will allow us to harvest data of sufficient quality to reach a 10% precision in age. This is a fundamental pre-requisite to then reach the more ambitious goal of a similar level of accuracy, which will only be possible if we have to hand a careful appraisal of systematic uncertainties on age deriving from our limited understanding of stellar physics, a goal which conveniently falls within the main aims of PLATO's core science.

  8. Angiographic outcomes in the PLATO Trial (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kunadian, Vijay; James, Stefan K; Wojdyla, Daniel M; Zorkun, Cafer; Wu, Jinhui; Storey, Robert F; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Katus, Hugo; Emanuelsson, Hakan; Horrow, Jay; Maya, Juan; Wallentin, Lars; Harrington, Robert A; Gibson, C Michael

    2013-01-01

    The PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) angiographic substudy sought to compare the efficacy of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel with respect to angiographic outcomes before and after PCI in the setting of acute coronary syndrome...

  9. The Legacies of Literacy: From Plato to Freire through Harvey Graff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, James Paul

    1989-01-01

    Reviews "The Legacies of Literacy: Continuities and Contradictions in Western Culture and Society" (Harvey G. Graff). Discusses the historical role of literacy education as a tool for liberation, emphasizing the viewpoints of Plato and Freire. (FMW)

  10. Genesis 2–3 and Alcibiades's speech in Plato's Symposium : A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genesis 2–3 and Alcibiades's speech in Plato's Symposium : A cultural critical reading. ... interpretation can arise from the analysis of Alcibiades's speech compared to M- and LXX-Genesis ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  11. Prospects for detecting decreasing exoplanet frequency with main sequence age using PLATO

    CERN Document Server

    Veras, Dimitri; Mustill, Alexander J; Pollacco, Don

    2015-01-01

    The space mission PLATO will usher in a new era of exoplanetary science by expanding our current inventory of transiting systems and constraining host star ages, which are currently highly uncertain. This capability might allow PLATO to detect changes in planetary system architecture with time, particularly because planetary scattering due to Lagrange instability may be triggered long after the system was formed. Here, we utilize previously published instability timescale prescriptions to determine PLATO's capability to detect a trend of decreasing planet frequency with age for systems with equal-mass planets. For two-planet systems, our results demonstrate that PLATO may detect a trend for planet masses which are at least as massive as super-Earths. For systems with three or more planets, we link their initial compactness to potentially detectable frequency trends in order to aid future investigations when these populations will be better characterized.

  12. Plato's Charmides as a Political Act: Apologetics and the Promotion of Ideology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Danzig, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

      By showing that Critias and Socrates understood the same matters differently, Plato was able to treat seriously ideas that came to be associated with the Thirty and with Socrates while shielding himself from criticism...

  13. Platerm: la banque de terminologie du systeme Platon (PLATERM: The Terminology Bank of the PLATO System).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Wallace; St-Denis, Richard

    1980-01-01

    Describes the elements and functioning of the terminology bank of the PLATO (Programmed Loqic for Automated Teaching Operation) system. Discusses contemporary terminology and lexicography notions on which the bank is based and outlines the tasks performed through PLATERM. (MES)

  14. Platerm: la banque de terminologie du systeme Platon (PLATERM: The Terminology Bank of the PLATO System).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Wallace; St-Denis, Richard

    1980-01-01

    Describes the elements and functioning of the terminology bank of the PLATO (Programmed Loqic for Automated Teaching Operation) system. Discusses contemporary terminology and lexicography notions on which the bank is based and outlines the tasks performed through PLATERM. (MES)

  15. The PLATO Dome A site-testing observatory: Power generation and control systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. S.; Ashley, M. C. B.; Hengst, S.; Luong-van, D. M.; Storey, J. W. V.; Yang, H.; Zhou, X.; Zhu, Z.

    2009-06-01

    The atmospheric conditions above Dome A, a currently unmanned location at the highest point on the Antarctic plateau, are uniquely suited to astronomy. For certain types of astronomy Dome A is likely to be the best location on the planet, and this has motivated the development of the Plateau Observatory (PLATO). PLATO was deployed to Dome A in early 2008. It houses a suite of purpose-built site-testing instruments designed to quantify the benefits of Dome A site for astronomy, and science instruments designed to take advantage of the observing conditions. The PLATO power generation and control system is designed to provide continuous power and heat, and a high-reliability command and communications platform for these instruments. PLATO has run and collected data throughout the winter 2008 season completely unattended. Here we present a detailed description of the power generation, power control, thermal management, instrument interface, and communications systems for PLATO, and an overview of the system performance for 2008.

  16. Gaia and WEAVE/WxES: Supporting the PLATO Exoplanet Hunter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, N. A.

    2016-10-01

    This paper briefly describes the powerful linkages between the Gaia and PLATO missions and the potential for WEAVE in the study of exoplanet populations, for instance through the proposed WxES survey. Gaia successfully launched in December 2013, and over the course of its nominal five year mission will discover, via their astrometric signatures, upwards of 20 000 massive Jupiter sized long period planets at distances out to several hundred parsecs around all star types. In addition Gaia will discover up to a thousand short period hot Jupiters around M stars. PLATO, to launch in 2024, will through precision photometry, observe in detail some million host stars, and will detect, via the transit technique, planets down to Earth masses. PLATO will observe two fields of over 2 000 square degrees for 2-3 years each. At least one of these will be in the northern hemisphere. WEAVE has the potential to provide detailed chemical characterization of the host stars of the Gaia and PLATO exoplanet systems. This will enable insights into, for instance, metallicity of the host star correlations against both massive exoplanets (perhaps confirming current relationships), and lower mass exoplanets. We note how the rapid exploitation of such a potential WEAVE survey could be achieved, utilizing the WEAVE processing systems being developed at the IoA, Cambridge, coupled with efficient interfaces to both Gaia and PLATO data products, that are also being generated at the IoA.

  17. The role of the poet in Plato's ideal cities of Callipolis and Magnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard Naddaf

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Plato's attitude toward the poets and poetry has always been a flashpoint of debate, controversy and notoriety, but most scholars have failed to see their central role in the ideal cities of the Republic and the Laws, that is, Callipolis and Magnesia. In this paper, I argue that in neither dialogue does Plato "exile" the poets, but, instead, believes they must, like all citizens, exercise the expertise proper to their profession, allowing them the right to become full-fledged participants in the productive class. Moreover, attention to certain details reveals that Plato harnesses both positive and negative factors in poetry to bring his ideal cities closer to a practical realization. The status of the poet and his craft in this context has rarely to my knowledge been addressed.

  18. PLATO - the next-generation AASTINO for robotic site-testing on the Antarctic plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengst, S.; Lawrence, J.; Luong-van, D.; Everett, J.; Ashley, M. C. B.; Storey, J. W. V.; Hall, S.

    2006-08-01

    A new site-testing facility, PLATO (Plateau Observatory), is under development at UNSW for deployment to remote sites on the Antarctic Plateau including Dome A. The new facility will adopt many of the features of the AASTINO (Automated Astrophysical Site Testing InterNational Observatory) facility at Dome C. PLATO will autonomously control a flexible site testing and observing instrument suite, monitored via the Iridium satellite network. A challenging aspect of PLATO is to maximise the reliability of the power source while minimising fuel consumption. We are building a low pressure, low temperature environmental chamber to simulate operation at the highest altitudes (4,100 m at Dome A). Two types of engines will be tested: a single-cylinder diesel engine and a Stirling engine.

  19. Efficient methods for solving discrete topology design problems in the PLATO-N project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canh, Nam Nguyen; Stolpe, Mathias

    This paper considers the general multiple load structural topology design problems in the framework of the PLATO-N project. The problems involve a large number of discrete design variables and were modeled as a non-convex mixed 0–1 program. For the class of problems considered, a global optimizat......This paper considers the general multiple load structural topology design problems in the framework of the PLATO-N project. The problems involve a large number of discrete design variables and were modeled as a non-convex mixed 0–1 program. For the class of problems considered, a global...

  20. The quest for a poetics of goodness in plato and aristotle

    OpenAIRE

    Dairo Orozco

    2012-01-01

    The paper, which compares Plato and Aristotle’s different approaches towards artistic activity, is divided into three parts. The first part discusses Plato’s Ion on mimesis and technē, as well as the role that poetry plays in the Republic. The second section offers an account of Aristotle’s idea of happiness as the end of action. Thelast section of this study deals with an attempt to reconcile Plato and Aristotle’s attitude towards mimetic art in a treatise by a Neoplatonic renaissance thinke...

  1. A Similar Comparison between the Thought of Plato and Confucius on Social Hierarchy and Elitism

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨馥遥

    2014-01-01

    The spring-autumn period and warring state period of Chinese thoughts coincide strikingly with the thoughts of the Hel enic Age in the west. Plato and Confucius, the two outstanding seminal thinkers have shaped the philosophy of their respective cultures through some similar means and thoughts which definitely meet at a series of significant points. The highlight of the academic thesis lies in the comparison of the general similarities be-tween Plato and Confucius especial y in terms of social hierarchy and elitism.

  2. The PLATO End-to-End CCD Simulator -- Modelling space-based ultra-high precision CCD photometry for the assessment study of the PLATO Mission

    CERN Document Server

    Zima, W; De Ridder, J; Salmon, S; Catala, C; Kjeldsen, H; Aerts, C

    2010-01-01

    The PLATO satellite mission project is a next generation ESA Cosmic Vision satellite project dedicated to the detection of exo-planets and to asteroseismology of their host-stars using ultra-high precision photometry. The main goal of the PLATO mission is to provide a full statistical analysis of exo-planetary systems around stars that are bright and close enough for detailed follow-up studies. Many aspects concerning the design trade-off of a space-based instrument and its performance can best be tackled through realistic simulations of the expected observations. The complex interplay of various noise sources in the course of the observations made such simulations an indispensable part of the assessment study of the PLATO Payload Consortium. We created an end-to-end CCD simulation software-tool, dubbed PLATOSim, which simulates photometric time-series of CCD images by including realistic models of the CCD and its electronics, the telescope optics, the stellar field, the pointing uncertainty of the satellite ...

  3. ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes in the Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Armstrong, Paul W; Siha, Hany; Fu, Yuling;

    2012-01-01

    Ticagrelor, when compared with clopidogrel, reduced the 12-month risk of vascular death/myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes intended to undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention in the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) tr...

  4. Democratic Freedom and the Concept of Freedom in Plato and Aristotle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mogens Herman Hansen

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several meanings of eleutheria used by Greeks in the classical period, democratic freedom is rejected by both Plato and Aristotle, who do not articulate a theory of political freedom but rather confine eleutheria to a social context.

  5. Freud, Plato and Irigaray: A Morpho-Logic of Teaching and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peers, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses two well-known texts that respectively describe learning and teaching, drawn from the work of Freud and Plato. These texts are considered in psychoanalytic terms using a methodology drawn from the philosophy of Luce Irigaray. In particular the article addresses Irigaray's approach to the analysis of speech and utterance as a…

  6. Dialectic of Eros and Myth of the Soul in Plato's Phaedrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jens Kristian

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, I question a widespread reading of a passage in the last part of the Phaedrus dealing with the science of dialectic. According to this reading, the passage announces a new method peculiar to the later Plato aiming at defining natural kinds. I show that the Phaedrus itself does not ...

  7. Evaluation of a Three Year Health Sciences PLATO IV Computer-Based Education Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorlie, William E.; Essex, Diane L.

    Significant findings of the comprehensive evaluation of a computer-based curriculum in the basic medical sciences using the PLATO IV computer system are presented. The study was conducted by the Office of Curriculum and Evaluation (OCE) of the School of Basic Medical Sciences (SBMS) at the University of Illinois, Urbana/Champaign (UC). It was…

  8. Cost of Initial Development of PLATO Instruction in Veterinary Medicine. CERL Report X-43.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimes, George M.

    An academic program instituting the PLATO system of computer-assisted instruction at the University of Illinois College of Veterinary Medicine is discussed. Procedures involved setting up an organization, establishing an administrative system, studying capabilities of the system, studying factors making a lesson suitable for programming, and…

  9. From Dialogos to Dialogue: The Use of the Term from Plato to the Second Century CE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Jazdzewska

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In Plato the verb διαλέγεσθαι is far more common than the noun, and both denote question-and-answer discussions; it was only in the Hellenistic period that διάλογος became a genre term, though its other meanings survived.

  10. Two examples of the relation between the contemporary science and Plato

    CERN Document Server

    Antonello, Elio

    2016-01-01

    The philosopher Plato is remembered even today by scientists, and his writings are still inspiring the scientific research. In the present short note (intended essentially for public outreach) two examples are briefly illustrated: 1) the European space project that bears his name, dedicated to the discovery of exoplanets; 2) the discussion about platonism in contemporary physics.

  11. Grades 1-8, Apache Junction Unified School District 43, Apache Junction, Arizona. PLATO Evaluation Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, David W.; Quinn, Nancy W.

    Apache Junction Unified School District, Arizona, has embarked on a 5-year program of instructional improvement using technology. PLATO Elementary reading and mathematics products were installed in the district's elementary and middle schools at the beginning of the 1999-2000 school year. This evaluation studied the use and preliminary student…

  12. Can Prior Knowledge Hurt Text Comprehension? An Answer Borrowed from Plato, Aristotle, and Descartes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Lawrence B.

    Taking a philosophical approach based on what Plato, Aristotle, and Descartes said about knowledge, this paper addresses some of the murkiness in the conceptual space surrounding the issue of whether prior knowledge does or does not facilitate text comprehension. Specifically, the paper first develops a non-exhaustive typology of cases in which…

  13. A Philosophical Investigation of the Role of Teachers: A Synthesis of Plato, Confucius, Buber, and Freire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Seung Hwan

    2008-01-01

    This study proposes the ideal role of teachers through the examination of Plato, Confucius, Buber, and Freire on the subject. Teachers not only contribute to the development of individuals and societies but also attain self-realization through teaching. As such, the role of teachers is important as a goal as well as a means. To examine such role,…

  14. Genesis 2–3 and Alcibiades's speech in Plato's Symposium: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-08-26

    Aug 26, 2015 ... Friedländer 1975:26f; Gauss 1958:111–117) is the last speech in Plato's ... leader (450–404/3 BCE), appears to be in a great state of intoxication .... command (Gn 2:18: 'You are free to eat of all the trees in the garden.

  15. Freud, Plato and Irigaray: A Morpho-Logic of Teaching and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peers, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses two well-known texts that respectively describe learning and teaching, drawn from the work of Freud and Plato. These texts are considered in psychoanalytic terms using a methodology drawn from the philosophy of Luce Irigaray. In particular the article addresses Irigaray's approach to the analysis of speech and utterance as a…

  16. From Plato to Erikson: How the War on "Bad Play" Has Impoverished Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnes, Mark C.

    2015-01-01

    For centuries, the titans of educational reform--Plato, Rousseau, Dewey, Piaget, Erikson, Csikszentmihalyi and others--have championed the educational benefits of play. Yet many professors and administrators are boggled by the idea of playing academic games in college. They instantly dismiss faculty initiatives like "Reacting to the…

  17. Plato, Wilde, and Woolf: the poetics of homoerotic "intercourse" in A Room of One's Own.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanita, Ruth

    2010-01-01

    This article places Woolf in the context of homoerotic literary ancestry. It suggests that the overall argument in A Room of One's Own owes a debt to Wilde's 1891 pamphlet The Soul of Man under Socialism. It also examines Woolf's controversial meditation on male-female collaboration and intercourse in A Room, and suggests a homoerotic reading of this meditation, drawing on images and ideas of literary transmission and creation from Plato's Symposium.

  18. The philosopher Socrates had exophthalmos (a term coined by Plato) and probably Graves' disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papapetrou, Peter D

    2015-01-01

    According to a previously published theory, Socrates was afflicted with temporal lobe epilepsy since his childhood. Plato, Xenophon, and Aristoxenus described Socrates as having exophthalmos, probably diplopia, and some symptoms compatible with hyperthyroidism. Using these data, we theorize that Socrates had Graves' disease. In order to determine a cause of his temporal lobe epilepsy, we speculate that the philosopher also had autoimmune thyroiditis and Hashimoto encephalopathy during his childhood and his epilepsy may have been a sequel to this hypothesized encephalopathy.

  19. The instrument control unit of the ESA-PLATO 2.0 mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focardi, M.; Pezzuto, S.; Cosentino, R.; Giusi, G.; Pancrazzi, M.; Noce, V.; Ottensamer, R.; Steller, M.; Di Giorgio, A. M.; Pace, E.; Plasson, P.; Peter, G.; Pagano, I.

    2016-07-01

    PLATO 2.0 has been selected by ESA as the third medium-class Mission (M3) of the Cosmic Vision Program. Its Payload is conceived for the discovery of new transiting exoplanets on the disk of their parent stars and for the study of planetary system formation and evolution as well as to answer fundamental questions concerning the existence of other planetary systems like our own, including the presence of potentially habitable new worlds. The PLATO Payload design is based on the adoption of four sets of short focal length telescopes having a large field of view in order to exploit a large sky coverage and to reach, at the same time, the needed photometry accuracy and signalto- noise ratio (S/N) within a few tens of seconds of exposure time. The large amount of data produced by the telescope is collected and processed by means of the Payload's Data Processing System (DPS) composed by many processing electronics units. This paper gives an overview of the PLATO 2.0 DPS, mainly focusing on the architecture and processing capabilities of its Instrument Control Unit (ICU), the electronic subsystem acting as the main interface between the Payload (P/L) and the Spacecraft (S/C).

  20. Echoes in Plato's cave : ontology of sound objects in computer music and analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Marsden, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The sonic aspects of Plato's analogy of the cave is taken as a starting point for thought experiments to investigate the objective nature of sound, and the idea of quasi-Platonic forms in music. Sounds are found to be objects in a way that sights or appearances are not, and it is only in the presence of technology that they become artificial. When recognition, control and communication about sound come into play, abstract concepts emerge, but there is no reason to give these the priority stat...

  1. Ontological Questions in Schelling’s Late Philosophy: Plato and Aristotle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-François Courtine

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to understand the reasons and procedures employed by F. W. Schelling in his Plato and Aristotle re-appropriation, and to extract the authentically ontological thematic of it. It makes a path through the Schelling’s late writings and letters, to construct a complete view about the relation between this appropriation and the possibility of the constitution of a positive philosophy, as a particular science, in opposition to a negative philosophy, understood as metaphysics.

  2. Numbers Rule The Vexing Mathematics of Democracy, from Plato to the Present

    CERN Document Server

    Szpiro, George G

    2010-01-01

    Since the very birth of democracy in ancient Greece, the simple act of voting has given rise to mathematical paradoxes that have puzzled some of the greatest philosophers, statesmen, and mathematicians. Numbers Rule traces the epic quest by these thinkers to create a more perfect democracy and adapt to the ever-changing demands that each new generation places on our democratic institutions. In a sweeping narrative that combines history, biography, and mathematics, George Szpiro details the fascinating lives and big ideas of great minds such as Plato, Pliny the Younger, Ramon Llull, Pierre Simo

  3. Philosophy and Mathematics in the Teaching of Plato: the Development of Idea and Modernity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailova N. V.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that the largest philosophers differently explain the origin of mathematics. This question was investigated in antiquity, a substantial and decisive role in this respect was played by the Platonic doctrine. Therefore, discussing this issue the problem of interaction of philosophy and mathematics in the teachings of Plato should be taken into consideration. Many mathematicians believe that abstract mathematical objects belong in a certain sense to the world of ideas and that consistency of objects and theories really describes mathematical reality, as Plato quite clearly expressed his views on math, according to which mathematical concepts objectively exist as distinct entities between the world of ideas and the world of material things. In the context of foundations of mathematics, so called “Gödel’s Platonism” is of particular interest. It is shown in the article how Platonic objectification of mathematical concepts contributes to the development of modern mathematics by revealing philosophical understanding of the nature of abstraction. To substantiate his point of view, the author draws the works of contemporary experts in the field of philosophy of mathematics.

  4. The PLATO Simulator: Modelling of High-Precision High-Cadence Space-Based Imaging

    CERN Document Server

    Marcos-Arenal, P; De Ridder, J; Aerts, C; Huygen, R; Samadi, R; Green, J; Piotto, G; Salmon, S; Catala, C; Rauer, H

    2014-01-01

    Many aspects of the design trade-off of a space-based instrument and its performance can best be tackled through simulations of the expected observations. The complex interplay of various noise sources in the course of the observations make such simulations an indispensable part of the assessment and design study of any space-based mission. We present a formalism to model and simulate photometric time series of CCD images by including models of the CCD and its electronics, the telescope optics, the stellar field, the jitter movements of the spacecraft, and all important natural noise sources. This formalism has been implemented in a versatile end-to-end simulation software tool, called PLATO Simulator, specifically designed for the PLATO space mission to be operated from L2, but easily adaptable to similar types of missions. We provide a detailed description of several noise sources and discuss their properties, in connection with the optical design, the allowable level of jitter, the quantum efficiency of th...

  5. Dialectic and Dialogue in Plato: Refuting the Model of Socrates-as-Teacher in the Pursuit of Authentic "Paideia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrini, James Michael

    2014-01-01

    Incorporating Gadamer and other thinkers from the continental tradition, this essay is a close and detailed hermeneutic, phenomenological, and ontological study of the dialectic practice of Plato's Socrates--it radicalizes and refutes the Socrates-as-teacher model that educators from scholar academic ideology embrace.

  6. Three Aspects of PLATO Use at Chanute AFB: CBE Production Techniques, Computer-Aided Management, Formative Development of CBE Lessons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klecka, Joseph A.

    This report describes various aspects of lesson production and use of the PLATO system at Chanute Air Force Base. The first chapter considers four major factors influencing lesson production: (1) implementation of the "lean approach," (2) the Instructional Systems Development (ISD) role in lesson production, (3) the transfer of…

  7. A Plan for the Evaluation of a Project to Develop Basic Medical Sciences Lessons on PLATO IV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Les A.; And Others

    A project to introduce PLATO IV computer-assisted instruction (CAI) in medical sciences education for health professionals was implemented at the School of Basic Medical Sciences at the University of Illinois. This paper describes the plan for evaluation of the project. Using a student questionnaire and additional general questions, the…

  8. An Evaluation of the Teaching Effectiveness of PLATO in a First Level Biology Course. CERL Report X-32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenty, Richard P.; Kieffer, George H.

    This paper describes a study of the teaching effectiveness of computer-assisted instruction using the PLATO system at the University of Illinois in a first level biology course. College enrollment, class rank, final grade, and time study data of the control and experimental groups were obtained from master rosters. A questionnaire administered to…

  9. The Education of the Third Class in "The Republic": Plato and the "Locus Classicus" of Formative Justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintz, Avi I.

    2016-01-01

    Background/Context: In one of the classics of educational philosophy, a key issue is remains unsettled. In Plato's "Republic," Socrates makes a case for the importance of a comprehensive education. Socrates is unclear, however, about whether the producer class is eligible for this comprehensive education. Purpose/Objective: Previous…

  10. Dialectic and Dialogue in Plato: Refuting the Model of Socrates-as-Teacher in the Pursuit of Authentic "Paideia"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrini, James Michael

    2014-01-01

    Incorporating Gadamer and other thinkers from the continental tradition, this essay is a close and detailed hermeneutic, phenomenological, and ontological study of the dialectic practice of Plato's Socrates--it radicalizes and refutes the Socrates-as-teacher model that educators from scholar academic ideology embrace.

  11. The Theory of Argumentation within Language and its relation to Plato, Saussure and Benveniste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiane Dall'Cortivo-Lebler

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Theory of Argumentation within Language, developed by Oswald Ducrot, Jean-Claude Anscombre and Marion Carel, has experienced along its development different phases and forms, constantly seeking to align to what its main developer, Oswald Ducrot, called external hypotheses and internal hypotheses. This paper discusses the presence of Linguistic Theories and Philosophy in Ducrot’s work regarding concepts of Plato, Ferdinand de Saussure and Émile Benveniste, which constitute its external assumptions. The presence of these concepts culminated in the creation of different concepts that comprise the Linguistic Semantics, and gave it a specific point of view about language that emphasizes the internal relationships among language components and understands that speech is the result of a linguistic activity where an “I” speaks to a “you”.

  12. Efficient methods for solving discrete topology design problems in the PLATO-N project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canh, Nam Nguyen; Stolpe, Mathias

    This paper considers the general multiple load structural topology design problems in the framework of the PLATO-N project. The problems involve a large number of discrete design variables and were modeled as a non-convex mixed 0–1 program. For the class of problems considered, a global...... optimization method based on the branch-and-cut concept was developed and implemented. In the method a large number of continuous relaxations were solved. We also present an algorithm for generating cuts to strengthen the quality of the relaxations. Several heuristics were also investigated to obtain efficient...... algorithms. The branch and cut method is used to solve benchmark examples which can be used to validate other methods and heuristics....

  13. Alternative communication network designs for an operational Plato 4 CAI system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobley, R. E., Jr.; Eastwood, L. F., Jr.

    1975-01-01

    The cost of alternative communications networks for the dissemination of PLATO IV computer-aided instruction (CAI) was studied. Four communication techniques are compared: leased telephone lines, satellite communication, UHF TV, and low-power microwave radio. For each network design, costs per student contact hour are computed. These costs are derived as functions of student population density, a parameter which can be calculated from census data for one potential market for CAI, the public primary and secondary schools. Calculating costs in this way allows one to determine which of the four communications alternatives can serve this market least expensively for any given area in the U.S. The analysis indicates that radio distribution techniques are cost optimum over a wide range of conditions.

  14. Banishing the Poet: The Pedagogical Function of Mythology in the Dialogues of Plato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Martínez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This text attempts to develop a sound justification for Plato’s pedagogical use of myth in the dialogues. In particular, I seek to resolve a seeming contradiction: why Plato personally made use of myths in spite of his many statements that seem to contradict such a pedagogical approach, especially his edict that poets and myth-makers be banished from his republic for the danger their works pose to the attainment of true philosophical wisdom. An analysis of the centrality of myths to the dialogues is carried out, followed by a discussion of the place of muthos in its Ionian historical context. This establishes the basis for resolving the contradiction through the division of muthos into two distinct modes: the fantastic and the eikastic.

  15. Arete and Gender-Differentiation in Socrates/Plato and Aristotle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Robinson

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The article grapples with the question whether Plato believed that, in the matter of arete, the female psyche had a built-in inclination to immorality in a way that the male psyche did not, and was therefore assuch signiticantly different from the male psyche. It is argued that the evidence of the Timaeus ( and, to some lesser degree, of the Laws suggests very strongly that he did, though fortunately the political consequence she drew from this (in the Laws tum out to be positive rather than negative. Aristotle, by contrast,it is argued, while still holding to the lamentable theory of the inferiority of woman, talks of ditl'eringquanta of (one and the same arete in male and female souls, rather than a difference in their very arete.

  16. Platón y el silogismo Plato and the syllogism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Correia Machuca

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available La cuestión de si Platón pudo ser el autor de una primera noción de deducción silogística (un método que Aristóteles hizo conocido a través de una definición y un progreso teórico en los Analíticos Primeros fue discutida en la antigüedad y, desde entonces, debatida por varios comentaristas. En este artículo, comento dos pasajes de la literatura post-aristotélica, uno atestiguado por Boecio (que se remonta a Alejandro de Afrodisia y el otro presente en Juan Filópono, en su comentario a los Analíticos Primeros. El artículo intenta mostrar que estos pasajes contienen información suficiente para favorecer a Platón como conocedor de la técnica deductiva silogística, aunque no para conferirle el desarrollo de la metodología silogística.The question of whether Plato could be the author of a first concept of syllogistic deduction (a method that Aristotle made known by means of a definition and a theoretical improvement in his Prior Analytics was known in the antiquity and from that time, the question has usually examined by several commentators. In this article, I comment on two passages of post-Aristotelian tradition; one is given by Boethius (which stems from Alexander of Aphrodisias and the other was given by Johannes Philoponus in his commentary on Prior Analytics. The article intends to show that these passages contain information that is sufficient to come to an opinion favoring Plato, although it does not imply that they are sufficient to confer him the syllogistic method.

  17. Simulation results for PLATO: a prototype hybrid X-ray photon counting detector with a low energy threshold for fusion plasma diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, A.; Menouni, M.; Pangaud, P.; Fenzi, C.; Colledani, G.; Moureau, G.; Escarguel, A.; Morel, C.

    2017-01-01

    PLATO is a prototype hybrid X-ray photon counting detector that has been designed to meet the specifications for plasma diagnostics for the WEST tokamak platform (Tungsten (W) Environment in Steady-state Tokamak) in southern France, with potential perspectives for ITER. PLATO represents a customized solution that fulfills high sensitivity, low dispersion and high photon counting rate. The PLATO prototype matrix is composed of 16 × 18 pixels with a 70 μm pixel pitch. New techniques have been used in analog sensitive blocks to minimize noise coupling through supply rails and substrate, and to suppress threshold dispersion across the matrix. The PLATO ASIC is designed in CMOS 0.13 μm technology and was submitted for a fabrication run in June 2016. The chip is designed to be bump-bonded to a silicon sensor. This paper presents pixel architecture as well as simulation results while highlighting novel solutions.

  18. From Pericles to Plato – from democratic political praxis to totalitarian political philosophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øjvind Larsen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Plato is normally taken as one of the founders of Western political philosophy, not at least with his Republic. Here, he constructs a hierarchy of forms of governments, beginning with aristocracy at the top as a critical standard for the other forms of governments, and proceeding through timocracy and oligarchy to democracy and tyranny at the bottom. Following Karl Popper, the paper argues that Plato’s is a totalitarian philosophy that emphasizes the similarities between democracy and tyranny, which it considers to be the two worst forms of government. Plato’s denigration of democracy has dominated the tradition of political philosophy until recent times. This paper, however, shows that political philosophy in fact originates in democracy, especially as developed by the sophists and that philosophy is only a form of sophism with a similar origin in ancient Greek democracy. A discussion of Pericles’ funeral oration is used to show that Pericles presented a democratic political philosophy that can serve as a counterpoint to Plato’s political philosophy in the Republic.

  19. Plato's Concept of Justice%论柏拉图的正义观

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘欣如

    2015-01-01

    本文以柏拉图的作品《申辩》、《斐多》、《理想国》为切入点,论述了正义是在应在的位置上做应做之事、正义的本质是灵魂的一种属性以及正义的产生,并通过作品提供的背景和对话讨论了正义之人和不义之人的区别、正义的种类、正义行为的动机、正义的各种不同状态等问题.%In this paper, the works of Plato,"defense","Phaedo","Utopia"as the starting point, discusses the justice should be done is to do things in a position to be in, the nature of justice is an attribute of the soul, and justice generation, background and dialogue and through providing discussed works of justice and the unrighteous man of distinction, just the kind of moti-vation act of justice, justice of various states and other issues.

  20. Lost in follow-up rates in TRACER, ATLAS ACS 2, TRITON and TRA 2P trials: challenging PLATO mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiNicolantonio, James J; Can, Mehmet Mustafa; Serebruany, Victor L

    2013-04-15

    Extreme rates of vascular and all-cause mortality especially in the clopidogrel arm of the Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO) non-USA cohort raise concerns of data integrity, and call for independent verification of vital records in the national death registries. Four recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) trials: Thrombin Receptor Antagonist for Clinical Event Reduction in Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRACER), Anti-Xa therapy to lower cardiovascular events in addition to standard therapy in subjects with acute coronary syndrome (ATLAS-ACS 2), Trial to Assess Improvement in Therapeutic Outcomes by Optimizing Platelet Inhibition with Prasugrel (TRITON), and the Thrombin Receptor Antagonist in Secondary Prevention of Atherothrombotic Ischemic Events (TRA 2P), provide a valuable opportunity to match lost in follow-up (LIFU) with mortality rates among similar ACS studies. To compare the LIFU from PLATO, TRACER, ATLAS-ACS 2, TRITON-TIMI 38 and TRA 2P trials. The disturbingly high (8.9%-14.7%) LIFU in PLATO was no match to LIFU in TRACER (0.1%), ATLAS ACS 2 (0.3%), TRITON (0.1%) and TRA 2P (0.1%). In fact, such an astronomical (49-147 fold higher) PLATO LIFU rate should result in less mortality compared to the other ACS trials since no event can be reported or adjudicated if the patient has been lost. Adjusting LIFU rate revealed that vascular (5.55%) and all cause (6.05%) mortality in PLATO was even more disparate than in TRACER (3.2% and 4.9%), ATLAS-ACS 2 (4.1% and 4.5%), TRITON-TIMI 38 (2.4% and 3.2%) and TRA 2P (3.0% and 5.3%) control arms, respectfully. Moreover, the incomplete CV follow-up in the ATLAS ACS 2 trial was later revealed to be around 12%, which lead to the rejection of rivaroxaban for the treatment of ACS. PLATO's LIFU rate was just as high, if not higher, than seen in ATLAS ACS 2. The chance to die in PLATO far exceeds the mortality risks observed in the clopidogrel arms of four recent ACS trials, which becomes especially evident after

  1. Dosimetric evaluation of PLATO and Oncentra treatment planning systems for High Dose Rate (HDR) brachytherapy gynecological treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hardev; Herman, Tania De La Fuente; Showalter, Barry; Thompson, Spencer J.; Syzek, Elizabeth J.; Herman, Terence; Ahmad, Salahuddin

    2012-10-01

    This study compares the dosimetric differences in HDR brachytherapy treatment plans calculated with Nucletron's PLATO and Oncentra MasterPlan treatment planning systems (TPS). Ten patients (1 T1b, 1 T2a, 6 T2b, 2 T4) having cervical carcinoma, median age of 43.5 years (range, 34-79 years) treated with tandem & ring applicator in our institution were selected retrospectively for this study. For both Plato and Oncentra TPS, the same orthogonal films anterior-posterior (AP) and lateral were used to manually draw the prescription and anatomical points using definitions from the Manchester system and recommendations from the ICRU report 38. Data input for PLATO was done using a digitizer and Epson Expression 10000XL scanner was used for Oncentra where the points were selected on the images in the screen. The prescription doses for these patients were 30 Gy to points right A (RA) and left A (LA) delivered in 5 fractions with Ir-192 HDR source. Two arrangements: one dwell position and two dwell positions on the tandem were used for dose calculation. The doses to the patient points right B (RB) and left B (LB), and to the organs at risk (OAR), bladder and rectum for each patient were calculated. The mean dose and the mean percentage difference in dose calculated by the two treatment planning systems were compared. Paired t-tests were used for statistical analysis. No significant differences in mean RB, LB, bladder and rectum doses were found with p-values > 0.14. The mean percent difference of doses in RB, LB, bladder and rectum are found to be less than 2.2%, 1.8%, 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively. Dose calculations based on the two different treatment planning systems were found to be consistent and the treatment plans can be made with either system in our department without any concern.

  2. Dosimetric evaluation of PLATO and Oncentra treatment planning systems for High Dose Rate (HDR) brachytherapy gynecological treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Hardev; De La Fuente Herman, Tania; Showalter, Barry; Thompson, Spencer J.; Syzek, Elizabeth J.; Herman, Terence; Ahmad, Salahuddin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peggy and Charles Stephenson Oklahoma Cancer Center, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, OK 73104 (United States)

    2012-10-23

    This study compares the dosimetric differences in HDR brachytherapy treatment plans calculated with Nucletron's PLATO and Oncentra MasterPlan treatment planning systems (TPS). Ten patients (1 T1b, 1 T2a, 6 T2b, 2 T4) having cervical carcinoma, median age of 43.5 years (range, 34-79 years) treated with tandem and ring applicator in our institution were selected retrospectively for this study. For both Plato and Oncentra TPS, the same orthogonal films anterior-posterior (AP) and lateral were used to manually draw the prescription and anatomical points using definitions from the Manchester system and recommendations from the ICRU report 38. Data input for PLATO was done using a digitizer and Epson Expression 10000XL scanner was used for Oncentra where the points were selected on the images in the screen. The prescription doses for these patients were 30 Gy to points right A (RA) and left A (LA) delivered in 5 fractions with Ir-192 HDR source. Two arrangements: one dwell position and two dwell positions on the tandem were used for dose calculation. The doses to the patient points right B (RB) and left B (LB), and to the organs at risk (OAR), bladder and rectum for each patient were calculated. The mean dose and the mean percentage difference in dose calculated by the two treatment planning systems were compared. Paired t-tests were used for statistical analysis. No significant differences in mean RB, LB, bladder and rectum doses were found with p-values > 0.14. The mean percent difference of doses in RB, LB, bladder and rectum are found to be less than 2.2%, 1.8%, 1.3% and 2.2%, respectively. Dose calculations based on the two different treatment planning systems were found to be consistent and the treatment plans can be made with either system in our department without any concern.

  3. Ancient philosophical ideas of the soul (Plato-Aristotelian tradition and Stoicism as a source of Patristic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaitsev Cornelius

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the ancient idea of the soul that in the patristic era has been enriched by the perception of the methodology of ancient philosophy. Greek and Roman thinkers considered some properties of the soul, its immortality, revealed its “levels and strata” (Plato, Aristotle, expressed first guesses about the nature of sinful passions (the Stoics. But some aspects still remained unresolved so far. This is the issue of materiality or immateriality, of the soul, which "raised" in the Russian Empire in the 19th century (the dispute saints Theophan the Recluse and Ignatius Brianchaninov and remains relevant today.

  4. Toward a Poeticognosis: Re-reading Plato's The Republic via Wallace Stevens' "An Ordinary Evening in New Haven"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Disney

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a language-based re-reading of Plato's exile of the poets via Wallace Stevens' poem-manifesto, "An Ordinary Evening in New Haven." I examine how philosophy and poetry use language differently in order to deconstruct an origin of the speech-acts -- wonder -- that I then identify as a phenomenological difference between philosophers and poets. I contend that the thinking-into-language of philosophers is based in theoria, comprehension, and a resulting closure of wonder. I contrast this with the processes of poets, who I show to be moving thought into language via gnosis, apprehension, and a phenomenology opening onto inexhaustible wonder.

  5. Love and/in psychoanalysis: a commentary on Lacan's reading of Plato's Symposium in Seminar VIII: Transference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Bruce

    2015-02-01

    What is love and what part does it play in psychoanalysis? Where are the analyst and the analysand situated in relation to the roles defined as those of the "lover" and the "beloved"? Jacques Lacan explores these and other questions in his soon-to-be-published Seminar VIII: Transference by providing an extensive commentary on Plato's most famous dialogue on love, the Symposium. This paper outlines some of the major points about love that grow out of Lacan's reading of the dialogue and examines their relevance to the analytic setting. Can the analyst be characterized as a sort of modern-day Socrates?

  6. ¿Solamente platos? Cerámicas de barniz rojo en el depósito ibérico del Zacatín (Granada)

    OpenAIRE

    Sánchez Moreno, Amparo; Niveau de Villedary y Mariñas, Ana María; Adroher Auroux, Andrés María

    2015-01-01

    Se presenta un conjunto homogéneo de platos de barniz rojo indígena con un perfil muy particular y sin paralelos conocidos por el momento. Dicho conjunto formaba parte del depósito ritual hallado en la granadina calle del Zacatín, una fosa junto al río Darro que se rellenó con los resultantes de un festín sagrado posiblemente en relación con el propio río. En este trabajo planteamos que estos platos fueron fabricados ex profeso para el ritual que tuvo lugar fuera de las murallas de Iliberri e...

  7. The micro-fascism of Plato's good citizen: producing (dis)order through the construction of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Byrne, Patrick; Holmes, Dave

    2007-04-01

    The human body has come to be seen as forever susceptible to both external and internal hazards, which in many circumstances require immediate, heroic, and expensive intervention. In response to this, there has been a shift from a treatment-based healthcare model to one of prevention wherein nurses play an integral role by identifying and assessing risks for individuals, communities, and populations. This paper uses Deborah Lupton's outline of the spectrum of risk and applies the theoretical works of Foucault and Plato to demonstrate the means by which nurses maintain social order by identifying and counselling risk takers. It also utilizes the work of Deleuze and Guattari to illustrate how Plato's framework for creating social order through the creation of the good citizen can be viewed as a micro-fascist system, which has been adopted wholeheartedly by preventative health professionals. The goal of this paper is to present an alternate understanding of risk to provide nurses and other healthcare professionals with a non-traditional appreciation of certain aspects of their practice as researchers and clinicians.

  8. Negação e diferença em Platão Negation and diference in Plato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Christina de Souza

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Platão, ao tratar da negação no diálogo Sofista, afirma que sempre que enunciamos o que não é, não enunciamos algo contrário ao que é, mas algo diferente. A negação significa cada parte da natureza da diferença em antítese ao que é. Tal tratamento da negação resulta da necessidade de resolver alguns problemas colocados pelo eleatismo. Propõe-se indicar esses problemas e examinar o tratamento que Platão dá ao não-ser como diferença.Plato, in dealing with negation in the dialogue Sophist, says that when we say what is not, we speak not of something that is the opposite of being, but of something different. Negation means each part of the nature of the difference in antithesis to what is. This treatment of negation results from the need to solve some problems posed by eleatism. It is proposed to indicate these problems and examine the treatment that Plato gives to non-being as difference.

  9. Comparative Study of Meanings and Status of Imagination in Mathnavi and Plato’s Ideas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sh alyari

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Describing and explaining the nature of imagination and its function with regard to human being and ontology has always been one of the preoccupations of philosophers and thinkers. Plato is the first philosopher who considered an epistemological status for imagination and, by dividing the world into the world of reason and world of senses, he ascribed the knowledge of imagination to the world of senses. In different parts of Mathnavi, Molavi, the great Muslim-Iranian mystic, has paid much attention to imagination, its types, its status in the Knowledge of Man (both physical and metaphysical affairs and its various influences on the body, soul and mental states of any individual. Thus, the present article aims to compare the concept of imagination in the view of the two thinkers. For reaching such aim, while using a descriptive-comparative method, first, the definitions of imagination in Mathnavi and Plato’s ideas are investigated and, then, the similarities and differences of the two views are shown. The conclusion is that their ideas are similar with regard to unreality and shadowiness of the world and phenomena, the relation between imitation and imagination, deficiency and restrictions of imagination for understanding the reality, whereas their ideas are different regarding the power of imagination, its epistemological status and the meaning and influence of it.

  10. The Case against the Arts from Plato to Tolstoy and Its Implications for Why and How the Arts Should Be Taught in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tate, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    From Plato onwards many of the great Western thinkers have explored the nature of the arts, their contribution to society and their role in education. This has often involved a discussion of the potentially negative impact of the arts. The recurring message has been that the arts can warp judgment, elevate emotion at the expense of reason,…

  11. Why Did Socrates Deny That He Was a Teacher? Locating Socrates among the New Educators and the Traditional Education in Plato's "Apology of Socrates"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintz, Avi I.

    2014-01-01

    Plato's "Apology of Socrates" contains a spirited account of Socrates' relationship with the city of Athens and its citizens. As Socrates stands on trial for corrupting the youth, surprisingly, he does not defend the substance and the methods of his teaching. Instead, he simply denies that he is a teacher. Many scholars have…

  12. Cardiovascular events in acute coronary syndrome patients with peripheral arterial disease treated with ticagrelor compared to clopidogrel: Data from the PLATO trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patel, Manesh R.; Becker, Richard C.; Wojdyla, Daniel M.;

    Abstract 14299: Cardiovascular Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients With Peripheral Arterial Disease Treated With Ticagrelor Compared to Clopidogrel: Data From the PLATO Trial Manesh R Patel1; Richard C Becker1; Daniel M Wojdyla2; Håkan Emanuelsson3; William Hiatt4; Jay Horrow5; Steen Husted6...

  13. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  14. Republican Utopia:from Plato to Moore%共和主义乌托邦:从柏拉图到莫尔

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐百军

    2012-01-01

    通过对柏拉图的《理想国》和莫尔的《乌托邦》的文本分析,我们发现他们的乌托邦思想中潜藏着共和主义叙事,实质上柏拉图和莫尔都希图建构一种共和主义乌托邦,由此也可以说乌托邦思想与共和主义之间原本就存在着一种共生的却被遗忘的历史关系,因而我们试图恢复以柏拉图和莫尔为代表的乌托邦思想家在共和主义政治光谱中的理论地位也并非一种主观冲动。%Through making a text analysis of Plato's Republic and Moore's Utopia,we find that a republican narrative has been hidden in their Utopian thought.Essencially,Plato and Moore both hoped to construct a republican utopia.It also can be said that there is a symbiotic and forgotten historical relation between the utopian thought and republicanism.So it is not a subjective impulse that we try to give the theoretical status in the republican political spectrum back to the utopian thinkers whose representatives are Plato and Moore.

  15. The great Lisbon earthquake and tsunami of 1755: lessons from the recent Sumatra earthquakes and possible link to Plato's Atlantis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutscher, M.-A.

    2006-05-01

    Great earthquakes and tsunami can have a tremendous societal impact. The Lisbon earthquake and tsunami of 1755 caused tens of thousands of deaths in Portugal, Spain and NW Morocco. Felt as far as Hamburg and the Azores islands, its magnitude is estimated to be 8.5 9. However, because of the complex tectonics in Southern Iberia, the fault that produced the earthquake has not yet been clearly identified. Recently acquired data from the Gulf of Cadiz area (tomography, seismic profiles, high-resolution bathymetry, sampled active mud volcanoes) provide strong evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath Gibraltar. Eleven out of 12 of the strongest earthquakes (M>8.5) of the past 100 years occurred along subduction zone megathrusts (including the December 2004 and March 2005 Sumatra earthquakes). Thus, it appears likely that the 1755 earthquake and tsunami were generated in a similar fashion, along the shallow east-dipping subduction fault plane. This implies that the Cadiz subduction zone is locked (like the Cascadia and Nankai/Japan subduction zones), with great earthquakes occurring over long return periods. Indeed, the regional paleoseismic record (contained in deep-water turbidites and shallow lagoon deposits) suggests great earthquakes off South West Iberia every 1500 2000 years. Tsunami deposits indicate an earlier great earthquake struck SW Iberia around 200 BC, as noted by Roman records from Cadiz. A written record of even older events may also exist. According to Plato's dialogues The Critias and The Timaeus, Atlantis was destroyed by ‘strong earthquakes and floods … in a single day and night’ at a date given as 11,600 BP. A 1 m thick turbidite deposit, containing coarse grained sediments from underwater avalanches, has been dated at 12,000 BP and may correspond to the destructive earthquake and tsunami described by Plato. The effects on a paleo-island (Spartel) in the straits of Gibraltar would have been devastating, if inhabited, and may

  16. A dialogical exploration of the grey zone of health and illness: medical science, anthropology, and Plato on alcohol consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Kieran

    2009-01-01

    This paper takes a phenomenological hermeneutic orientation to explicate and explore the notion of the grey zone of health and illness and seeks to develop the concept through an examination of the case of alcohol consumption. The grey zone is an interpretive area referring to the irremediable zone of ambiguity that haunts even the most apparently resolute discourse. This idea points to an ontological indeterminacy, in the face of which decisions have to be made with regard to the health of a person (e.g., an alcoholic), a system (e.g., the health system), or a society. The fundamental character of this notion will be developed in relation to the discourse on health and the limitations of different disciplinary practices. The case of alcohol consumption will be used to tease out the grey zone embedded in the different kinds of knowledge made available through the disciplinary traditions of medical science, with its emphasis on somatic well-being, and anthropology, with its focus on communal well-being. This tension or grey zone embedded in different knowledge outcomes will be shown to have a discursive parallel with the dialogue between the Athenian, the Spartan, and the Cretan in Plato's Laws. Making use of the dialogical approach as described by Gadamer, the Athenian's particular resolution of the tension will be explored as a case study to demonstrate the necessarily particular analysis involved in a grey zone resolution.

  17. What is good sport: Plato's view Co je to dobrý sport: Platónův pohled

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Pisk

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available One of Plato's most common questions found in his dialogues is "What is something?" By asking this question Plato usually brought his co-speakers to the recognition that in fact they do not have a full comprehension of what something is, although they have a partial comprehension of it. The awareness of one's incomplete cognition is the first step to be made on the philosophic way to truth. As in ancient times also today Plato asks us – the modern philosophers of sport – "What is sport?" or more precisely "What is good sport?" Probably the best of Plato's answers to this question can be found in the basic concepts of his philosophy regarding his hierarchical division of the state and human soul into three parts. Since sport is derived from human being also the goodness of sport can be divided into three stages. The lowest stage of sport corresponds to the first part of the soul – the appetite soul. On this stage sport is based on the gaining of material goods through prizes won at competitions. In the philosophic view, this is the lowest possible stage of goodness of sport. The second stage of sport corresponds to the second part of the soul – the emotional soul. Sport at this stage is based on the elementary ancient agon, which seeks fulfilment in the winning of honour and glory. The greatest and the most superior is the third part of the soul – the reasonable soul. According to this, also the sport corresponding to the third part of the soul is the best. For this kind of sport it is no longer necessary to compete with other contestants, since it can achieve it's fulfilment in perfect execution of movement or exercise, in which the perfect cooperation between reason (soul and body is attained. At this stage of sport it is the most important to compete and win over one's self, and this can be achieved by everyone, without regard to his/her physical abilities in comparison with others. In Plato's view, good sport is the sport directed

  18. The influence of Plato, Aristotle, and the ancient Polis on a programme for congenital cardiac surgery: the virtuous partnership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavroudis, Constantine; Backer, Carl L

    2007-09-01

    The problems that exist in maintaining a partnership in paediatric cardiac surgery are considerable. They relate to fairness in allocation of time for leisure, the apportioning of cases between the partners, internal competition between them, financial considerations, and promotion of the ego. In this review, we discuss our own experiences in maintaining a partnership over a period of more than 18 years, relating such a "virtuous partnership" to the writings of Plato and Aristotle, and setting it against the tenets of the ancient Greek polis. The polis, or city state, came to prominence in ancient Greece during the golden age of Pericles, this period seeing the initial evolution of Western philosophy, as well as numerous other scientific, artistic and architectural advances. The concept of the polis was to create a natural association with its citizens that nurtured all that is best in people, at the same time defining their character. In this respect, according to Plato, the person and the polis are mirror images. Aristotle then expanded this notion to incorporate the various forms of friendship, which he pointed out last only as long as the interrelated pleasure survives. Using these principles as the point of departure, we argue that cardiac surgeons should respect moral virtue in each other. Extending this process means that we should also respect, and celebrate, our relationships with affiliated physicians, nurses, perfusionists, administrators, and all concerned in the care of children with congenitally malformed hearts. In this way, we create a virtuous partnership for congenital cardiac surgery that promotes all that was good, as engendered in the ancient Greek polis. As we extend these observations to the modern world, we discuss some of the features that have permitted us to work so well together. One of the most important is a summoning and unwritten tenet that greets us as we enter the operating room, namely "check your ego at the door". The operative

  19. Misrepresentation of vital status follow-up: challenging the integrity of the PLATO trial and the claimed mortality benefit of ticagrelor versus clopidogrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiNicolantonio, James J; Tomek, Ales

    2013-10-30

    Ticagrelor, a novel, reversible, and oral P2Y12 receptor antagonist, was claimed to reduce all-cause mortality compared to clopidogrel in the PLATO trial. We sought to ascertain vital status follow-up for clopidogrel and ticagrelor to determine if any discrepancy existed by reviewing data from the FDA Complete Response Review. The FDA Complete Response Review indicated misrepresentation of vital status follow-up by the sponsor's presenter at the Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee. Instead of five patients with missing vital status follow-up, the FDA primary efficacy reviewer indicated that there was a minimum of 106 patients. Additionally and more concerning was the fact that significantly more patients on ticagrelor (3.1%, n = 289 patients) had incomplete vital status follow-up versus clopidogrel (2.6%, n = 242 patients, p = 0.04 for the difference). The Advisory Committee that voted in favor to approve ticagrelor was given misrepresented data, which may have affected the approval of ticagrelor. The fact that significantly more patients on ticagrelor had incomplete vital status follow-up versus clopidogrel challenges the claimed mortality benefit of ticagrelor and the approval of the PLATO trial. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Proporción y autoría. Arte mueble paleolítico. Figuras de los Omóplatos de

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Fernández Lombera

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available El trabajo se compone de las siguientes partes : a.- Realización de calcos con una gran objetividad gráfica de las figuras grabadas en los omóplatos de El Castillo, exhumados por OBERMAIER en sus campañas de 1911/12. b.- Diseño, validación y aplicación de un método para el cálculo de la proporción de una figura, independoentemente de cuál sea, enfrentándola a un arquetipo. c.- Aplicación de tal método, una vez validado, a las figuras de los omóplatos de El Castillo. d.- Análisis de la manera de hacer de cada uno de los autores de las figuras de El Castillo ; es a lo que llamamos autoría. e.- Obtención de un conjunto de conclusiones de tipo formal, artístico y paleoetnológico

  1. La cuadratura del plato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángeles Mora

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Una de las cosas que el Jurado del X Premio de Poesía Vicente Núñez destacó de este libro fue “su exquisito tratamiento del lenguaje”. Y desde luego lo es, es exquisito su tratamiento del lenguaje pero no porque utilice un lenguaje exquisito o excelso sino porque sabe arrancarle al lenguaje de todos los días, a las palabras sencillas, toda la carga poética de emoción e iluminación que llevan dentro. Mónica Doña nos dice que en su libro ha querido huir de un lirismo que muchas veces resulta falso, hueco, y nos habla de que lo que ha querido hacer es “épica cotidiana”, sin héroes, porque por su libro, como por la vida nuestra de todos los días, lo que circulan son seres que sobreviven como pueden en un mundo adverso.

  2. La cuadratura del plato

    OpenAIRE

    Ángeles Mora

    2012-01-01

    Una de las cosas que el Jurado del X Premio de Poesía Vicente Núñez destacó de este libro fue “su exquisito tratamiento del lenguaje”. Y desde luego lo es, es exquisito su tratamiento del lenguaje pero no porque utilice un lenguaje exquisito o excelso sino porque sabe arrancarle al lenguaje de todos los días, a las palabras sencillas, toda la carga poética de emoción e iluminación que llevan dentro. Mónica Doña nos dice que en su libro ha querido huir de un lirismo que muchas veces resulta fa...

  3. A display model for the TOU of PLATO: just a cool toy or a benchmark of opportunities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dima, M.; Greggio, D.; Bergomi, M.; Biondi, F.; Farinato, J.; Farisato, G.; Magrin, D.; Lessio, L.; Marafatto, L.; Munari, M.; Pagano, I.; Ragazzoni, R.; Viotto, V.; Piazza, D.

    2016-07-01

    We produced a "toy-model" of one Telescope Optical Unit of PLATO, the Medium sized mission selected by ESA to fly in 2024. This is a six lenses dioptric very wide field camera with a window in front to take care of radiation impact on the first lens whose optical glass cannot be replaced with a radiation hardened one. The main aim of this project is just to produce a "cool" model for display purposes, in which one can "explore" the details of the inside through some openings in the tube, in order to visually inspect some of the fine details of the opto-mechanics. While its didactic and advertising role is out of doubt, during its construction we realized that some interesting outcome can be of some relevance for the project itself and that some findings could be useful, in order to assess the ability of producing with the same technology some (of course of much more modest quality) optical systems. In this context, we immediately dropped the option of producing the lenses with opaque material painted with a color resembling a refractive material (like blue for instance) and decided to actually produce them with transparent plastic. Furthermore the surfaces are then finely polished in order to give them basic optical properties. Such an optical system has only very coarsely the converging properties of the original nominal design for a number of reasons: the refractive indexes are not the nominal ones, the quality of the surfaces and their nominal values are only roughly, within a few percent, the targeted one, and the way the surfaces are built up makes them prone to some diffraction effects. However, the bulk of the lens and the surface roughness will give a large magnification of the scattering effects that will be experienced, at a much lower level, on the actual flight model. We investigated through propagation of a laser beam and by digital camera the main stray light modes that this toymodel offers. In other words, the model amplifies, to a large extent, the

  4. 苏格拉底、柏拉图、亚里士多德与丑%Socrates,Plato and Aristotle's Views on Ugliness

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    区翰子; 李佳

    2014-01-01

    尽管从苏格拉底开始就萌生“丑”这个美学范畴,其在古代一直处于被忽视和非独立的地位。拟通过分析苏格拉底、柏拉图和亚里士多德三位巨匠的“丑”观,揭示“审丑”在萌芽时期的状态。%Despite its first faint showing started from Socrates , Ugliness had constantly been over-looked as a dependent aesthetic category in the ancient time .The following discussion will analyze the views of Socrates ,Plato and Aristotle on the appreciation of ugliness ,thus revealing the state of the appre-ciation of ugliness in its earlier stage .

  5. On Aesthetic Thoughts of Socrates, Plato and Aristotle%古希腊“三贤”美育思想概论

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    秦宾; 刘忠伟

    2011-01-01

    Based on analysis of aesthetic thoughts of Socrates, Plato and Aristotle, the famous philosophers in ancient Greek, this paper attempts to use their ideas for reference in guiding the cur- rent teaching practice to better aesthetic education.%通过对古希腊时期三位著名哲学家苏格拉底、柏拉图、亚里土多德美育思想的简要概括和论述,试图从他们对美育思想的主张中提取有益于符合我们现实国情的教育理念,对我们在教学实践中更好地实施美育教育提供可资借鉴的依据。

  6. The Differences between Plato and Aristotle's Educational Philosophy%柏拉图与亚里士多德教育哲学的差异

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘良华

    2012-01-01

    古典西方教育哲学分为两个阵营:柏拉图以苏格拉底的名义组建他的“理想国”,按照“理论理性”设计他的“政治哲学”和教育方案;柏拉图坚持“哲人王”统治、公产制和道德教育。亚里士多德虽然坚持了哲学对政治的指导,但他看到了哲学对政治的危险,按照“实践理性”的优先性开创了不同于柏拉图的“政治哲学”的“政治科学”以及相关的教育方案。亚里士多德重视轮流制、私有制和法制教育。%The classical philosophy of education is divided into two camps. Plato built his Republic in the name of Socrates and designed the political philosophy and education plan with the theoretical reason. He adhered to the rule of the “philosophy king”, the communist membership system and moral education. Aristotle realized the danger of the philosophy to the politics, although he insisted in the guidance of philosophy to politics. He created the political science and education plan with the practical reason instead of Plato's political philosophy. He valued the political rule, the private ownership, and the legal education.

  7. 旧概念与新环境(一):柏拉图的“恒”%OLD CONCEPTS AND NEW SITUATIONS ( Ⅰ ): PLATO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁鹤年

    2012-01-01

    "Justice" is emphasized both in Plato's worldview (Timaeus) and political view (The Republic). "Justice", as an Idea, a Form, is changeless; it governs man and the Universe; it is the combination of order and balance. In city planning, Le Corbusier comes closest to the Platonic ideal, and for which he has been severely criticized by mainstream Empiricism and Individualism. City planning cannot avoid ordering and balancing. Confucianism does not only share a lot with Platonism, but also provide additional insights.%柏拉图的《宇宙论》和《理想国》都强调“义”.“义”是一种永恒的天道与人道原则,是秩序和平衡的组合,是宇宙之法.在城市规划中,柯布西耶最得其精粹.但也因此而备受现代主流经验主义与个人主义的批判.城市规划不能离开秩序与平衡,中国孔孟之道与柏拉图思路不仅有很多吻合之处,更另创新意.

  8. The fundamental characters of soma in Plato's later dialogues: an introduction to the reanalysis of Plato's physical education theory%柏拉图后期对话篇中"身体(soma)"的原理性特征——柏拉图体育论再考的前提

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    木庭康树

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to clarify Plato's view of soma through consideration of the fundamental characters of soma in Plato's later dialogues. Soma, which had a very large extension in classical Greek, denotes not only the hu-man body but also the elemental bodies (fire, water, air, earth), the corpse, the cosmic body, the celestial body, the animal body, etc, and there also lies such a large extension in the background of the Plato's view of the human body.According to Laws, Plato's last work, soma has three common characters: spaciality, movability and sensibil-ity, and takes on a different aspect fi'om the body in the present age. Firstly, the spaciality of soma is the likeness of Form, which is copied into chora (the place of plenum), and it is the solid, which is geometrically formed by fol-lowing Form. Secondly, the movability of soma is originally motion by others or disorderly and dotted linear mo-tion, which is necessarily caused by the accidental collision between the particles, but in connection with Soul and Reason it becomes a pseudo-autonomous and orderly circular motion. Thirdly, the sensibility of soma is pathema (accidental affection), which is based on the multiplicity in the geometrical structures of the particles. Pathema in-jutes Soul and soma when it is left to Chance and Ignorance, but in the control of Reason it contributes to the reali-zation of the good and the restoration of the order.Since soma, which has close connections to Soul, Reason and Form, is represented as such a subordinate and necessarily conditional existence in Plato's later dialogues, the hu-man body, which is also called soma, should be considered on the basis of the above mentioned fundamental char-acters.%通过考察柏拉图后期对话篇中"身体(soma)"的原理性特征,阐明柏拉图身体(soma)观."身体(soma)"是具有极其宽广外延的词汇,不仅指人的身体,还代指动物的躯体、宇宙或天体的结构、丧失生命的尸体,甚至具有构成基

  9. Baseline Q waves and time from symptom onset to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from PLATO on the influence of sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kholaif, Naji; Zheng, Yinggan; Jagasia, Pushpa; Himmelmann, Anders; James, Stefan K; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; Storey, Robert F; Westerhout, Cynthia M; Armstrong, Paul W

    2015-08-01

    The prognostic value of time from symptom onset to reperfusion may be enhanced by the identification of Q waves on the presenting electrocardiogram (ECG) in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We evaluated whether the relative prognostic utility of these 2 metrics was altered by sex. Q waves in the distribution of the ST-segment elevation on the baseline ECG were evaluated by a blinded core laboratory in 2838 STEMI patients (2163 men and 675 women) from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) within 12 hours of symptom onset. Women were older (median 63 vs 57 years), more likely to be diabetic (24.1% vs 15.5%), hypertensive (69.2% vs 50.9%), and a higher Killip class > I (8.6% vs 5.9%), as compared with men. Whereas the Q waves frequency rose progressively over time to ECG in men, this relationship was attenuated in women (P = .057). Q waves on the baseline ECG were associated with a higher excess hazard of 1-year vascular death in men (hazard ratio [HR] 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-3.72), and a similar trend existed in women (HR 1.97; 95% CI, 0.86-4.51). Women with baseline Q waves tended to have higher risk of 1-year vascular death than men as continuous time from symptom onset to PCI increased (P[interaction] = .182). These differences in the evolution of baseline Q waves and relationship between time from symptom onset and vascular death in women and men deserve recognition in future studies of STEMI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. "Ideal" and "Body Ideal": Reading Plato, Foucault, Vico and Socrates%“理想”与“身体理想”——读柏拉图、福珂、维科和苏格拉底

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龙潜

    2012-01-01

    从柏拉图的古希腊起,身体在人认知的体系中,是意识形态的,是价值判断的,亦是意义功能的。身体不是单纯的自然物,身体不能被看为一个独立的物体,它是一种社会现象。%Since Plato' s ancient Greece body has been considered part of human cognition system, involving the value judgment and meaning function. Body is not simply natural, but social as well.

  11. LAS CRÍTICAS DE ARISTÓTELES A PLATÓN EN METAFÍSICA I, 9 ARISTOTLE’S CRITICISMS OF PLATO IN METAPHYSICS I, 9

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana Gabriela Di Camillo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available

    O recurso à exposição crítica das doutrinas anteriores é um procedimento metodológico usual em Aristóteles. Mas a característica distintiva do Livro I da Metafísica é que, ao invés de estabelecer uma nova doutrina, o exame dos predecessores serve para confirmar os próprios conceitos aristotélicos, os quais ele usa para avaliar os êxitos e os erros das doutrinas analisadas. Essa imposição de conceitos próprios lhe valeu a acusação de ter uma compreensão histórica distorcida. Com a análise detalhada das críticas da teoria platônica das Idéias na Metafísica I, 9, pretendemos mostrar: a que as críticas de manipulação e distorção das opiniões dos seus antecessores ofuscam o grau em que as suas próprias posições emergem de uma análise crítica do pensamento anterior; e b que a imposição de conceitos próprios não é uma distorção, mas uma proposta de solução para os problemas que as teorias anteriores deixaram sem solução.

    The use of critical exposition of previous doctrines is a methodological procedure usual in Aristotle. But the distinctive characteristic of Book I of the Metaphysics is that, rather than to establish a new doctrine, a review of  predecessors serves to confirm the own concepts to be used in the evaluation of the doctrines examined. This imposition of own terms has cost him the charge of distorting historical understanding. With the detailed analysis of the criticisms of Plato's theory of Ideas in Metaphysics I, 9, we intend to show a that the criticism of manipulation and distortion of his predecessors' views overshadow the degree to which Aristotle's own positions emerge from a critical review of previous thought and b that the

  12. 柏拉图的“学习即回忆”与分析性默会知识%Plato's“learning is recollection” and Tacit Knowledge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    芮夕捷

    2015-01-01

    Abstracts:In Phaedo ,Plato tried to prove the proposition “learning is recollection” based on hu‐man perception of “equality” ,but the process of reasoning is invalid because of his'misunderstanding of logic priority as time priority .In Meno ,he attempted to illustrate the proposition through the dia‐logues between Socrates and Meno's slave .However ,the knowledge involved in the experiment is a kind of analytic tacit knowledge ,and the process in getting it essentially lies in discovering the tacit knowledge that is implied in cognitive subjects'related explicit knowledge but never appearing in his awareness ,and converting it into explicit knowledge .The experiment with Meno'little slave doesn't prove the proposition “learning is recollection” ,but the process in conversion of analytic tacit knowl‐edge to explicit knowledge has great implications for today's creative studies of organizational knowl‐edge .The tacit knowledge in analytic form has a complex structure .The realization of the conversion from analytic tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge is an important way of creation of organizational knowledge ,and requires persistent efforts on the part of cognitive subjects .%在《斐多篇》中柏拉图基于人们拥有“相等”的概念对“学习即回忆”进行了论证,但论证错误地将逻辑在先混淆成了时间在先。在《美诺篇》中柏拉图试图利用苏格拉底与美诺的僮奴的对话实验证明“学习即回忆”,然而实验所涉及的知识属分析性默会知识,它的获得过程本质上在于发现蕴涵于认知主体相关显式知识中但又不曾为其所意识的默会知识,并将其转变为显式知识。僮奴实验虽未能证明“学习即回忆”,但其中所涉及的分析性默会知识向显式知识的转变过程对当代组织知识创造研究具有借鉴意义。分析性默会知识具有较为复杂的结构,实现分析性默会知识向显式知识的转

  13. The Plato statistical analysis and countermeasures of internal fixation demolition mishandling%内固定拆除物处置不当的柏拉图统计分析与对策

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马慧仙; 章霞红; 汪怡翠; 郑剑英

    2014-01-01

    目的:通过质量管理提高内固定拆除物的处理质量,防止纠纷的发生。方法:用柏拉图方法对不良数据进行收集,用鱼骨图进行原因分析,根据原因提出对策,制定措施,进行PDCA。结果:通过柏拉图分析,使得内固定拆除物处理的进步率达到了78%,合格率达到了93%。结论:用柏拉图分析等QC手法对内固定拆除物处理质量进行改进,是一种行之有效的方法。%To improve the quality of internal fixation demolition processing by the quality management methods , thus to prevent the occurrence of disputes .[Method] The data of internal fixation demolition mishandling was collected and an-alyzed by fishbone diagram .According to the reasons ,we put forward countermeasures ,set out measures and carried out plan-do-check action cycle (PDCA) .[Result] The progress rate of internal fixation demolition handling was 78% and the qual-ified rate was 93% with Plato analysis . [Conclusion ] The Plato analysis is one of the effective methods to improve the quality of internal fixation demolition processing by the quality management methods.

  14. 柏拉图论“诗与哲学之争”的政治哲学思考%Thinking on the Comments on “Quarrel about Poetry and Philosophy” by Plato from the Perspective of Political Philosophy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    梁建东

    2013-01-01

    In The Republic, Plato criticized poetry and poets, which caused the quarrel about poetry and philosophy in the history of western thoughts. The death of Socrates awaked Plato to that the politicians educat-ed by ancient Athens education, which was characterized by poetry controlling the government in Athens, re-jected truly advantageous proposals for Athens City States and caused harm to people of true wisdom. Poetry is the destruction of soul and national ruling. The quarrel about poetry and philosophy is actually the quarrel about political system and life style. Poetry which represents common people�s daily life is the patriarchal clan life that most people in city state live, and is closely identified with the political community. Philosophy represents a new life that a few people live to pursue wisdom, and it would inevitably clash with the polis political commu-nity.%  古希腊哲人柏拉图在其《理想国》中批判诗和诗人,引发了西方思想史上的“诗与哲学之争”。苏格拉底之死使柏拉图认识到,被以诗为主要内容的雅典教育培养出的政客把持着雅典政府,拒绝对城邦真正有利的提议,并对真正有智慧的人实施了伤害。诗是对灵魂与国家统治的败坏。诗与哲学之争实质上是政治制度和生活方式之争。诗代表了普通民众的日常生活,是城邦中多数人过的宗法生活,与城邦政治共同体密不可分;哲学则代表了一种新兴的生活,是少数人过的追求智慧的生活,与城邦政治共同体必然发生冲突。

  15. Influencia de la distancia entre la tobera y el plato deflector, en la calidad de la aspersión, de las boquillas difusoras de baja presión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Domínguez G.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available En el presente trabajo se muestran los resultados de evaluaciones, en el laboratorio hidráulico, de un prototipo de nueva boquilla difusora. En el estudio se evaluaron diferentes distancias entre las toberas y la superficie del deflector del Instituto de Investigaciones de Riego y Drenaje (IIRD, para un orificio con diámetro de salida de 2.5 mm y presiones de 1.0,1.5,2.0 atmósferas; el que fue comparado con el plato deflector UNIRAIN SP 4, español. Para la prueba se utilizó la norma ISO 8026-1995, se aseguró, una velocidad del viento cero. Como receptores se emplearon vasos cónicos, con superficie de 66.76 cm2, espaciados a 25 cm; las mediciones se efectuaron en los cuatro radios del área humedecida. Como resultado, se tiene que el deflector IIRD, ubicado a 20 mm de distancia de la tobera, y el español situado a 42 mm, no presentaron diferencia significativa para el 5 y 1 % de probalidad, con errores típicos de 0.14 y 0.23 respectivamente

  16. 柏拉图分析法在临床案例安全风险识别中的应用%Application of Plato analysis method in identifying the security risks of the clinical cases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李小金; 陈雪霞; 林少玲; 成守珍

    2016-01-01

    Objective To apply Plato analysis method to clinical cases which were reported from clinical nursing, finding out the key link of the risks which were related to the cases:the key age, the key period, the key spectrum of disease and the key projects, etc. To carry out the feedforward control of the quality of care, and ensure the quality and safety of nursing. Methods A database were set up including clinical special cases, high-risk cases, security hidden danger cases and emergency cases. The"two eight"principle of Plato analysis method was used to find out the main factors, the principal contradiction, the key hazard and the key problems of the cases, etc. The aim was to provide guidelines of risk analysis, risk prevention and risk aversion for nurses, and improve their consciousness of security hidden danger, and reduce security hidden danger cases. Results The results of 207 cases collected from 2014 to 2015 showed that the main risks involved the age groups were 41-80 years old and 21-30 years old. The major risks involved the spectrum of disease were the nervous system, cardiovascular disease, surgical anesthesia related problems, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory system. The major risks involved the time were the midnight, morning and afternoon. The major risks involved the locations were sickroom, emergency room, auxiliary inspection departments and outpatient. The major risks involved items were disease mutation, psychological problems, medication safety and instrument safety, among the disease mutation, timely discovered, rescued 13 patients with heart and breathing pause, stop 13 patients who attempted suicide. Since the Plato analysis method was applied to identify the security risks of the clinical cases, the number of falling, all kinds of pipe shed, skin problems and suicides were decreased from 6, 6, 7, 5 in 2014 to 2, 2, 2, 1 in 2015, declining trend year by year. Conclusions Applying the Plato analysis method to identify the security risks

  17. Alternativa de protección contra la corrosión del acero AISI 310S mediante recubrimiento de aluminio bajo condiciones de platos separadores en celdas de combustible de carbonatos fundidos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Orozco-Cruz

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introducción: La celda de combustible de carbonatos fundidos (MCFC, por sus siglas en inglés convencional opera a 650°C. Consiste de un cátodo de NiO poroso y litiado, una mezcla eutéctica de carbonato de litio (Li2CO3 y carbonato de potasio (K2CO3 fundido en una matriz electrolitica de óxido de aluminio litiado (LiAlO2 y un ánodo poroso de Ni. Los platos separadores entre cada celda presentan problemas de corrosión. Ante eso, un acero inoxidable AISI 310S con recubrimiento fue estudiado en condiciones de un plato separador en una MCFC. Método: Se utilizó un acero inoxidable AISI 310S como sustrato (muestra A, aplicándole un recubrimiento de Al con (B y sin tratamiento térmico (C. Fueron expuestos en carbonatos fundidos (62 mol% Li2CO3 -38 mol% K2CO3 a 650 °C en crisoles de alúmina. El comportamiento electroquímico fue estudiado mediante la técnica de Espectroscopía de Impedancia Electroquimica (EIS. Para el análisis de los diagramas de impedancia, se utilizó el software de simulación “Boukamp Equivalent Circuit”. La sección transversal de las muestras corroídas fue caracterizada mediante Microscopía Electrónica de Barrido (SEM, por sus siglas en inglés y los productos formados por Difracción de rayos X (XRD, por sus siglas en inglés. Resultados: Los diagramas de EIS presentan aumentos y disminuciones en los semicírculos formados a altas frecuencias indicativo de disolución de la capa externa, aumento y disminución de la resistencia de esta última así como el posible rompimiento de ella. La técnica de XRD presentó fases LiFeO2, LiCrO2, -LiAlO2 y -LiAlO2 así como fases intermetálicas para las distintas condiciones de la muestra. De la misma manera, los análisis de SEM presentaron los espesores de cada una de las capas formadas. Discusión o Conclusión: En la muestra A, se formaron capas de LiFeO2 y LiCrO2 después de 200 horas de exposición. La capa de LiCrO2 aumenta por la difusión de Li hacia el

  18. Parmenide e Platone (e Aristotele nel Contro Colote di Plutarco Parménide et Platon (et Aristote dans le Contre Colotès de Plutarque Parmenides and Plato (and Aristotle in Plutarch's Against Colotes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Bonazzi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The chapters dedicated to Parmenides and Plato play a decisive role in the composition strategy of the Adversus Colotem, since this is where Plutarch most clearly defines the background dualist thesis that will help demonstrate that Platonism is superior to Epicurism. By showing Parmenides too as a dualist engaged in distinguishing between the sensible and the intelligible world, Plutarch structures a history of ancient philosophy entirely focused on Plato. These chapters also bear witness of another centre of interest, namely Aristoteles (§ 14, who, despite the criticism he aimed at the theory of ideas, is not completely refuted, but rather used as a possible ally against epicurean materialists, Plutarch’s true bête noire.Les chapitres consacrés à Parménide et Platon jouent un rôle décisif dans la stratégie de composition de l’Adversus Colotem : c’est là en effet que Plutarque définit de la manière la plus claire la thèse dualiste de fond qui va servir à démontrer la supériorité du platonisme sur l’épicurisme. En présentant Parménide lui aussi comme un dualiste occupé à distinguer entre monde sensible et monde intelligible, Plutarque articule une histoire de la philosophie antique entièrement centrée sur Platon. Les chapitres témoignent ensuite d’un autre centre d’intérêt, avec la mention d’Aristote (§ 14, lequel, malgré les critiques qu’il adresse à la théorie des idées, n’est pas complètement réfuté, mais plutôt utilisé comme un allié possible contre les matérialistes épicuriens, la véritable « bête noire » de Plutarque.I capitoli dedicati a Parmenide e Platone giocano un ruolo decisivo nella strategia compositiva dell’Adversus Colotem: è qui infatti che Plutarco delinea nel modo più chiaro la tesi dualistica di fondo che servirà a dimostrare la superiorità del platonismo sull’epicureismo. Presentando anche Parmenide come un dualista, impegnato a distinguere tra mondo

  19. La Traditio Legis de Cristo a Pedro y Pablo en un plato de vidrio de Cástulo, Linares (Jaén = Traditio Legis of Christ to Peter and Paul in a glass bowl from Cástulo, Linares (Jaén

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Mª Blázquez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo analizamos la iconografía de un plato de vidrio encontrado en Cástulo con la representación de la Tradicio legis o transmisión de la ley de Cristo a los apóstoles Pedro y Pablo.In this paper we analyze the iconography of a glass bowl found in Cástulo showing the representation of the Traditio legis, or «transmission of the law» of Christ to apostles Peter and Paul.

  20. 教育之"道"与"术"——柏拉图《理想国》中的教育理念解读%Principles and Techniques in Education——an Interpretation of the Educational Philosophy in The Republic by Plato

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘晶; 连幼平

    2011-01-01

    The Republic of Plato is well known for its broad and profound ideas, yet this paper only intends to make a preliminary analysis of the educational principles and techniques in Plato's philosophy while he was on his way of forging an ideal polis.Education is,in essence,a skill of helping turn the soul of the educated into the right direction as well as a skill of cultivating virtues on the part of the educated.The above are the principles educators shall follow in the process of education, leaving the program layout, teaching contents and methods as the specific educational techniques while carrying out the educational principles.%柏拉图的思想博大精深,本文仅对其教育思想体系中涉及的教育之"道":教育是"灵魂的转向"、教育是美德的养成;以及教育过程中所遵循的原则、内容和教学方法等教育之"术"做了初步探讨.

  1. Predicting future of predictive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Piyush, Duggal

    2014-01-01

    With enormous growth in analytical data and insight about advantage of managing future brings Predictive Analysis in picture. It really has potential to be called one of efficient and competitive technologies that give an edge to business operations. The possibility to predict future market conditions and to know customers’ needs and behavior in advance is the area of interest of every organization. Other areas of interest may be maintenance prediction where we tend to predict when and where ...

  2. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; Have, ten Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health sta

  3. Mimesis and ideology - from Plato to Althusser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolar Mladen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The moment one imitates something, it sticks, it marks the imitator, there is no innocent imitation. Imitation necessarily affects the one who imitates, for better or (usually for worse, and the making of a simple copy of something necessarily affects the original. This is perhaps the briefest way to describe Plato’s concerns about the nature of mimesis in the Republic. The purpose of this paper is to give a brief account of looking at the mysterious magic powers of mimesis and of attempts to counteract them. The topic is massive, so the paper will concentrate on a few perspectives, starting with the theatrical parable of St. Genesius, leading to Pascal and to Althusser’s theory of ideology, then scrutinizing the ways in which modernity tried to disentangle itself from mimesis (Brecht’s estrangement, Irigaray’s femininity as mimesis, Badiou’s anti-mimetic stance, Freud’s account of magic and Lacan’s account of enjoyment. What is the real of the mimetic spell which has so vastly ramified aesthetic and political consequences? The paper proposes a defense of mimesis, claiming that modernity, by relegating the traditional art to the past of mimesis and representation, thereby maintained a disavowed kernel of mimesis at its core.

  4. Plato: White and Non-white Love

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amo Sulaiman

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Plato’s dialogues, the Symposium, and Phaedrus, provide a reasonableexplanation of love. G. Vlastos and M. Nussbaum do not share such anopinion. The former contends that Plato’s view of love is about lovingonly a person’s beauty, but not the entire person; thus, it falls short of anappropriate explanation of love. The latter holds that a theory of love should be complete, and that Plato’s one is incomplete on the grounds that it does not account for personal love. These criticisms will be re-evaluated in light of the duality of love (the white and non-white horses—in Phaedrus as well as participants’ views in the Symposium; a re-assessment will weaken the mentioned objections. This paper contends that from the Symposium and Phaedrus, one can have a fruitful understanding of being in love, being out of love, falling inlove, loving for its own sake and being erotically in love. In order to account for these related issues of love it is important to consider Plato’s works in terms of his “official” and “unofficial” views. The former is construed as the doctrine of the lover or loving for its own sake: this is associates with Diotima’s views which are repeated by Socrates. With reference to the latter, it is possible to explain what personal love or being in love, being out of love, falling in love, and being erotically in love involve. Erotic love will be interpreted as an extension of our philosophical conception of love, related to views of love that are mentioned in the Symposium other than Socrates’ report of Diotima’s conceptions. This paper is divided into two parts: the first one will show views of love in the Symposium. That is, being in love, being out of love, falling in love and loving for its own sake will be discussed. In addition, the forementioned criticisms will be re-evaluated. In the second section, we will show that Aristophanes’ speech expresses erotic love, and then Kant’s objections will be explained and discussed.

  5. The PLATO 2.0 Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godolt, Mareike; Rauer, Heike; Plato Consortium

    2015-07-01

    The CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is a joint ESA-Switzerland space mission dedicated to search for exoplanet transits by means of ultra-high precision photometry. It is expected to be launch-ready at the end of 2017. CHEOPS will be the first space observatory dedicated to search for transits on bright stars already known to host planets. It will have access to more than 70% of the sky. This will provide the unique capability of determining accurate radii for planets for which the mass has already been estimated from ground-based spectroscopic surveys and for new planets discovered by the next generation ground-based transits surveys (Neptune-size and smaller). The measurement of the radius of a planet from its transit combined with the determination of its mass through radial velocity techniques gives the bulk density of the planet, which provides direct insights into the structure and/or composition of the body. In order to meet the scientific objectives, a number of requirements have been derived that drive the design of CHEOPS. For the detection of Earth and super-Earth planets orbiting G5 dwarf stars with V-band magnitudes in the range 6 V 9 mag, a photometric precision of 20 ppm in 6 hours of integration time must be reached. This time corresponds to the transit duration of a planet with a revolution period of 50 days. In the case of Neptune-size planets orbiting K-type dwarf with magnitudes as faint as V=12 mag, a photometric precision of 85 ppm in 3 hours of integration time must be reached. The CHEOPS mission payload consists of only one instrument, a space telescope of 30 cm clear aperture, which has a single CCD focal plane detector. The total required duration of the CHEOPS mission is estimated to be 3.5 years (goal: 5 years).

  6. EDUCATION FOR SALVATION: PLATO'S CONCEPTION OF THE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    which he held very dear to his own philosophy it is the teaching that the best life .... present condition of "amatheia "which means "double ignorance".9. The tragedy ... which of our desires are good and which are bad, but instead we are driven to the ... dreaming.20 Dialectic is the method or process of thought upon which is ...

  7. The GUIDO System and the PLATO Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenson, Michael A.; Hofstetter, Fred T.

    1983-01-01

    The GUIDO system offers programing in ear training and theory for kindergarten through college levels, using high-resolution graphics, touch input, and a sound synthesizer. Ear training includes intervals, melodies, chord qualities, harmonies, and rhythm. Theory covers octave designation, beat units, scales, intervals, diatonic chords,…

  8. Aristotle vs. Plato: The Balkans' Paradoxical Enlightenment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Michalopoulos

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available As it occurred in West, Aristotle’s thought was in Byzantium the main organon of philosophical meditation within the frame of the Christian Faith. Nonetheless, from the ninth century on it was a revival of Platonism that took place – of Neo-Platonism at the beginning and of Platonism itself at the end. The Church, initially indifferent, became suspicious only when, at the turning of the fourteenth to the fifteenth century, the Platonism seemed to engender somewhat a latent paganism; but the Patriarchate was not then able to fight that tendency. So only after the 1453 capture of Constantinople by the Ottomans, Gennadius Scholarius managed to root out from the Greek lands Platonism and its crypto-pagan extension. Be that as it may; the main paradox of the Balkan history is that in the early seventeenth century some leading Greek scholars endorsed the materialist interpretation of Aristotle’s thought – as it was taught in the University of Padua by Cesare Cremonini; and as a corollary this materialistic philosophical system began being taught in both Constantinople and Athens. It was that very way that the Enlightenment took birth in the Balkans – and somehow became a State ideology - long before its prevalence in France. And of course all this had as a result a turn toward Physics and Chemistry with far-reaching consequences

  9. Prevenção domiciliar da dengue: avaliação preliminar de tela protetora para pratos de vasos de planta Prevención domiciliar de la dengue: evaluación preliminar de tela protectora para platos de macetas de planta Dengue prevention at the household level: preliminary evaluation of a mesh cover for flowerpot saucers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgínia Torres Schall

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Avaliou-se em laboratório a eficácia de um protótipo de capa de tela de poliéster (evidengue® destinada a vedar o acesso de fêmeas do mosquito Aedes aegypti a pratos de vasos de planta. Dois pratos de vasos com água foram envolvidos individualmente com a capa e colocados com os seus respectivos vasos em duas gaiolas entomológicas, um em cada gaiola. Numa terceira gaiola foi colocado um conjunto idêntico de prato e vasos sem a capa. Cada gaiola recebeu 20 fêmeas copuladas do mosquito, alimentadas com sangue de camundongo. Os resultados mostram que a capa foi eficaz como barreira ao acesso de fêmeas. Novos testes são necessários para se avaliar a eficácia da capa como dispositivo de prevenção da ovipostura nos pratos.Se evaluó en laboratorio la eficiencia de una cubierta de tela de polyester (evidengue® con el objetivo de vedar el acceso de hembras del mosquito Aedes aegypti a platos de macetas de planta. Fueron utilizadas tres jaulas entomológicas, dos de ellas con evidengue® y una para control. En cada jaula fueron colocados dos conjuntos de macetas de planta y platos y 20 hembras copuladas, alimentadas con sangre de ratón. Los resultados muestran que la cubierta fue eficaz como barrera al acceso de hembras. Nuevas pruebas son necesarias para evaluar la eficiencia de la cubierta como dispositivo de prevención de la oviposición en los platos.The effectiveness of a polyester mesh cover (evidengue®, aimed at preventing the access of female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to flowerpot saucers, was evaluated in laboratory. Two saucers of flowerpot with water were individually wrapped with the cover was placed with their respective pots in two entomological cages. One identical set of flowerpot and saucer was placed in a third cage. In each cage, 20 gravid females, fed on mouse blood, were released. Results show that the cover was effective to prevent access of females. Further tests are necessary to assess cover effectiveness as a

  10. Predicting Macrosomia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pates, Jason A; McIntire, Donald D; Casey, Brian M; Leveno, Kenneth J

    2008-01-01

    Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prediction of fetal macrosomia based on ultrasound estimates of fetal weight and amniotic fluid volume combined with clinical risk factors. Methods...

  11. Predicting the Mean Liquid Film Thickness and Profile along the Annular Length of a Uniformly Heated Channel at Dryout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.Y. Agbodemegbe

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to predict the mean liquid film thickness and profile at high shear stress using a mechanistic approach. Knowledge of the liquid film thickness and its variation with two-phase flow parameters is critical for the estimation of safety parameters in the annular flow regime. The mean liquid film thickness and profile were predicted by the PLIFT code designed in Fortran 95 programming language using the PLATO FTN95 compiler. The film thickness was predicted within the annular flow regime for a flow boiling quality ranging from 40 to 80 % at high interfacial shear stress. Results obtained for a laminar liquid film flow were dumped into an excel file when the ratio of the actual predicted film thickness to the critical liquid film thickness lied within the range of 0.9 to unity. The film thickness was observed to decrease towards the exit of the annular regime at high flow boiling qualities and void fractions. The observation confirmed the effect of evaporation in decreasing the film thickness as quality is increased towards the exit of the annular regime.

  12. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...

  13. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  14. Predictable patterns in planetary transit timing variations and transit duration variations due to exomoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, René; Hippke, Michael; Placek, Ben; Angerhausen, Daniel; Agol, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

  15. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  16. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  17. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  18. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  19. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  20. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    By definition, an extreme event is rare one in a series of kindred phenomena. Usually (e.g. in Geophysics), it implies investigating a small sample of case-histories with a help of delicate statistical methods and data of different quality, collected in various conditions. Many extreme events are clustered (far from independent) and follow fractal or some other "strange" distribution (far from uniform). Evidently, such an "unusual" situation complicates search and definition of reliable precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. Making forecast/prediction claims reliable and quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" forecast/prediction outcomes, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous test of the candidate method. The set of errors ("success/failure" scores and space-time measure of alarms) and other information obtained in such a control test supplies us with data necessary to judge the candidate's potential as a forecast/prediction tool and, eventually, to find its improvements. This is to be done first in comparison against random guessing, which results confidence (measured in terms of statistical significance). Note that an application of the forecast/prediction tools could be very different in cases of different natural hazards, costs and benefits that determine risks, and, therefore, requires determination of different optimal strategies minimizing reliable estimates of realistic levels of accepted losses. In their turn case specific costs and benefits may suggest a modification of the forecast/prediction tools for a more adequate "optimal" application. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to the state-of-the-art understanding of the complexity and non-linear dynamics of the Earth as a Physical System and pattern recognition approaches applied to available geophysical evidences, specifically, when intending to predict

  1. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  2. Predictability of conversation partners

    CERN Document Server

    Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, Song et al. (2010) found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one's conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one's next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between close sensor nodes. We find t...

  3. Distribution Free Prediction Bands

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Jing

    2012-01-01

    We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band estimator by combining the idea of "conformal prediction" (Vovk et al. 2009) with nonparametric conditional density estimation. The proposed estimator, called COPS (Conformal Optimized Prediction Set), always has finite sample guarantee in a stronger sense than the original conformal prediction estimator. Under regularity conditions the estimator converges to an oracle band at a minimax optimal rate. A fast approximation algorithm and a data driven method for selecting the bandwidth are developed. The method is illustrated first in simulated data. Then, an application shows that the proposed method gives desirable prediction intervals in an automatic way, as compared to the classical linear regression modeling.

  4. CAAPM: Computer-Aided Admissible Probability Measurement on PLATO IV

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-03-01

    late Renaissance paintings b. Byzantine mosaics c. gothic stained glass 2. Of the following, the watercolorist noted for seascapes is: a...Theodore Gericault *b. Winslow Homer c. Jacob Epstein 3. Which of the following Dutch artists is noted for his genre paint- ings? *a. Jan Steen b. Jan

  5. Plato's Child and the Limit-Points of Educational Theories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Bernadette

    2003-01-01

    Analyzes how the figure of the child has been used to authorize a series of boundaries that have been constituted the limit points of educational theories or philosophies. Concludes that the meaning-space that the child can occupy has been important to depicting Utopian and cosmological imaginings at different historical moments. (Contains 37…

  6. "From Plato to Pareto": The Western Civilization Course Reconsidered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullaney, Marie Marmo

    1986-01-01

    Discusses the importance of historical study within general education. Reviews the rise and fall of the Western Civilization course as the core of general education in the humanities. Suggests ways a revised version of this course can be restored to a central place in the curriculum. (AYC)

  7. Rekindling the Dialogue: Education According to Plato and Dewey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Luchene, Stephen R.

    2004-01-01

    Since passage of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, thinking about America's schools has been taken over by something like philosopher Rene Descartes's malignant demon of doubt. The act's exclusive focus on assessing student achievement and faculty accountability in terms that can be "proved" mathematically has cast into doubt a…

  8. Plato, Socrates, Hunt, and Rotfeld: Eigenforms of Academic Collaboration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Louise Ripley

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A number of academic institutions profess to offer Interdisciplinary Studies but few truly achieve it, and not without a great deal of effort over and above the normal workload of a professor and a level of patience and perseverance not found in many university students. This paper will report on a successful academic collaboration between two very different disciplines: philosophy and business. It will examine a course taught jointly by the two disciplines in a strategy of imbrication attempted by a college of York University in Toronto, Atkinson College, housing both liberal arts and professional school.

  9. Clio's kerstening. Pedagogische literatuurkritiek van Plato tot Luther

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Everts, G.

    2005-01-01

    Storytelling no longer occupies a central position in school education. The question of why this element has largely disappeared in standard school education has led us to an historical inquiry into the history of European institutional education. We found that this was the first time this question

  10. The History of Linguistics in Europe from Plato to 1600.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Vivien

    This book examines the history of western linguistics over a 2,000-year timespan, from its origins in ancient Greece up to the crucial moments of change in the Renaissance that lay the foundations of modern linguistics. The book explores how ideas about language over the centuries have changed to reflect changing modes of thinking. Twelve chapters…

  11. Plato, Pascal, and the Dynamics of Personal Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otte, Michael Friedrich; Campos, Tania M. M.; Abido, Alexandre S.

    2013-01-01

    Educational practices are to be based on proven scientific knowledge, not least because the function science has to perform in human culture consists of unifying practical skills and general beliefs, the episteme and the techne (Amsterdamski, 1975, pp. 43-44). Now, modern societies first of all presuppose regular and standardized ways of…

  12. plato and the teaching of entrepreneurship studies as general ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JONATHAN

    2016-08-22

    Aug 22, 2016 ... Mgbakoigba, Journal of African Studies. Vol.6 No.1. July 2016. 1 ... The second worry is the growing global melt down and the increasing rate of ..... Entrepreneurship and management in Nigeria: The concept, philosophy and ...

  13. Plato and the Internet: Liberating Knowledge From Our Heads

    OpenAIRE

    O'Hara, Kieron

    2010-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to look at corporate knowledge engineering and see what it tells us about the philosophy of knowledge. The question I am asking is whether there is anything specific in engineering that could change our understanding of what or how we know. I am interested less in generating a theory of the relationship, rather more in raising a set of questions which I hope will stimulate a dialogue between the disciplines of knowledge and engineering. The distinguished computer scien...

  14. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  15. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  16. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribute...... to next generation. The main goal of this study was to see the potential of using genomic prediction in a commercial Barley breeding program. The data used in this study was from Nordic Seed company which is located in Denmark. Around 350 advanced lines were genotyped with 9K Barely chip from Illumina...

  17. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    -case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only......Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  18. Estimación de la incertidumbre global de un procedimiento para la determinación de humedad por gravimetría en platos preparados (Raciones individuales de combate Nutritional analysis in ready meals (individual combat rations, Calculation of Uncertainty global estimated in a procedure for determination of moisture by gravimetric technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pérez Grana

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objetivos: Realizar una estimación de la incertidumbre de forma global para la determinación de humedad en platos preparados por gravimetría aprovechando los datos obtenidos en el proceso de validación. Material y métodos: Se analiza, mediante un diseño anidado, un material de referencia certificado (MRC con un contenido de humedad certificado de 61,8 ±0,7 g/100g. La estimación de la incertidumbre combinada, se halla aplicando la ley de propagación de la incertidumbre. La incertidumbre expandida se obtiene aplicando un factor de cobertura K=2 (nivel de confianza del 95%. Mediante la aproximación SUMU se añade el sesgo a la incertidumbre expandida. Resultados: El límite de repetibilidad y reproductibilidad, para un nivel de confianza del 95%, es igual a 0,58 % y 1,21 %, respectivamente. Se obtienen los siguientes valores de incertidumbre: duplicados (0,12%, precisión (0,44 %, trazabilidad/ sesgo (0,39 %, incertidumbre combinada (0,60 % e incertidumbre expandida corregida (1,38 %. Conclusiones: El uso de un diseño anidado (analista, instrumento, día, replicado, permite variar los factores de una forma ordenada, entre cada serie, y estimar la precisión intermedia debida a varios factores. El cálculo de la incertidumbre de forma global supone una ventaja en cuanto a simplicidad, especialmente para laboratorios con pocos recursos humanos y materiales. La inclusión del sesgo experimental no significativo como un componente de la incertidumbre tiende a evitar la infraestimación de la incertidumbre de los resultados.Objectives: The aim of this article was to estimate the uncertainty total for the determination of moisture in ready meals by gravimetric using data obtained in the validation process. Material and methods: Samples were analyzed by gravimetric method in certified reference material (CRM (moisture certificate content: 61.8 ± 0.7 a 100 g. in nested design. The combined uncertainty was estimated by applying the law of

  19. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  20. Predicting the MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendon, H.

    2003-04-01

    Extended range prediction of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and seasonal prediction of MJO activity are reviewed. Skillful prediction of individual MJO events offers the possibility of forecasting increased risk of cyclone development throughout the global tropics, altered risk of extreme rainfall events in both tropics and extratropics, and displacement of storm tracks with 3-4 week lead times. The level of MJO activity within a season, which affects the mean intensity of the Australian summer monsoon and possibly the evolution of ENSO, may be governed by variations of sea surface temperature that are predictable with lead times of a few seasons. The limit of predictability for individual MJO events is unknown. Empirical-statistical schemes are skillful out to about 3 weeks and have better skill than dynamical forecast models at lead times longer than about 5 days. The dynamical forecast models typically suffer from a poor representation (or complete lack) of the MJO and large initial error. They are better used to ascertain the global impacts of the lack of the MJO rather than for determination of the limit of predictability. Dynamical extended range prediction within a GCM that has a good representation of the MJO indicates potential skill comparable to the empirical schemes. Examples of operational extended range prediction with POAMA, the new coupled seasonal forecast model at the Bureau of Meteorology that also reasonably simulates the MJO, will be presented.

  1. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  2. Improved nonlinear prediction method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md Noorani, Mohd Salmi

    2014-06-01

    The analysis and prediction of time series data have been addressed by researchers. Many techniques have been developed to be applied in various areas, such as weather forecasting, financial markets and hydrological phenomena involving data that are contaminated by noise. Therefore, various techniques to improve the method have been introduced to analyze and predict time series data. In respect of the importance of analysis and the accuracy of the prediction result, a study was undertaken to test the effectiveness of the improved nonlinear prediction method for data that contain noise. The improved nonlinear prediction method involves the formation of composite serial data based on the successive differences of the time series. Then, the phase space reconstruction was performed on the composite data (one-dimensional) to reconstruct a number of space dimensions. Finally the local linear approximation method was employed to make a prediction based on the phase space. This improved method was tested with data series Logistics that contain 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% of noise. The results show that by using the improved method, the predictions were found to be in close agreement with the observed ones. The correlation coefficient was close to one when the improved method was applied on data with up to 10% noise. Thus, an improvement to analyze data with noise without involving any noise reduction method was introduced to predict the time series data.

  3. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.1.3 Establish the predictive power, applicability and efficiency for each model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.1 Non-parametric statistics... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.2 Time to failure prediction algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.4 Testing for deterministic components of time series of interest, noise reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3...

  4. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  5. Predicting protein structure classes from function predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, I.; Rahnenfuhrer, J.; de Lichtenberg, Ulrik;

    2004-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to using the information contained in sequence-to-function prediction data in order to recognize protein template classes, a critical step in predicting protein structure. The data on which our method is based comprise probabilities of functional categories; for given...... query sequences these probabilities are obtained by a neural net that has previously been trained on a variety of functionally important features. On a training set of sequences we assess the relevance of individual functional categories for identifying a given structural family. Using a combination...... of the most relevant categories, the likelihood of a query sequence to belong to a specific family can be estimated. Results: The performance of the method is evaluated using cross-validation. For a fixed structural family and for every sequence, a score is calculated that measures the evidence for family...

  6. Prediction by Compression

    CERN Document Server

    Ratsaby, Joel

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that text compression can be achieved by predicting the next symbol in the stream of text data based on the history seen up to the current symbol. The better the prediction the more skewed the conditional probability distribution of the next symbol and the shorter the codeword that needs to be assigned to represent this next symbol. What about the opposite direction ? suppose we have a black box that can compress text stream. Can it be used to predict the next symbol in the stream ? We introduce a criterion based on the length of the compressed data and use it to predict the next symbol. We examine empirically the prediction error rate and its dependency on some compression parameters.

  7. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  8. Prediction of alumina penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandell, D A

    1993-02-01

    The MESA hydrocode was used to predict two-dimensional tests of L/D 10 and L/D 15 tungsten rods impacting AD 90 alumina with a steel backing. The residual penetration into the steel is the measured quantity in these experiments conducted at the Southwest Research Institute (SWR). The interface velocity as a function of time between an alumina target and a lithium fluoride window, impacted by an alumina disk at velocities between 544 m/s and 2329 m/s, was also predicted. These one-dimensional flyer plate experiments were conducted at Sandia National Laboratories using Coors AD 995 alumina. The material strength and fracture models are important in the prediction of ceramic experiments. The models used in these predictions are discussed. The penetrations in the two-dimensional tests were predicted to 11.4 percent or better. In five of the six experiments, the predicted penetration depth was deeper than the measured value. This trend is expected since the calculation is based on ideal conditions. The results show that good agreement between the 1-D flyer plate data and the MESA predictions exists at the lower impact velocities, but the maximum velocity is overpredicted as the flyer plate velocity increases. At a flyer plate velocity of 2329 m/s the code overpredicted the data by 12.3 percent.

  9. Evolution prediction from tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominy, Jason M.; Venuti, Lorenzo Campos; Shabani, Alireza; Lidar, Daniel A.

    2017-03-01

    Quantum process tomography provides a means of measuring the evolution operator for a system at a fixed measurement time t. The problem of using that tomographic snapshot to predict the evolution operator at other times is generally ill-posed since there are, in general, infinitely many distinct and compatible solutions. We describe the prediction, in some "maximal ignorance" sense, of the evolution of a quantum system based on knowledge only of the evolution operator for finitely many times 0evolution at times away from the measurement times. Even if the original evolution is unitary, the predicted evolution is described by a non-unitary, completely positive map.

  10. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  11. Wind Power Prediction Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanlong Liu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Daily and real-time forecast data of wind power is predicted in this study using three methods, which are Kalman filter model, GARCH model and time-series-based BP neural network model. Then, owing to evaluation to the calculation of accuracy and qualification rate, the best method, the time-series-based BP neural network model, was selected for its highest accuracy. Moreover, the prediction error influence due to convergence of wind turbine is on consideration according to the evaluation. Finally, suggestions of improving the prediction accuracy were put forward based on the discussion of accuracy-obstacle factors.

  12. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  13. Predicted value of $0 \\, \

    CERN Document Server

    Maedan, Shinji

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that the lightest neutrino mass $ m_0 $ is measured, we study the influence of error of the measured $ m_0 $ on the uncertainty of the predicted value of the neutrinoless double beta decay ($0 \\, \

  14. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  15. Predictable grammatical constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

  16. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  17. Predicting toxicity of nanoparticles

    OpenAIRE

    BURELLO ENRICO; Worth, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    A statistical model based on a quantitative structure–activity relationship accurately predicts the cytotoxicity of various metal oxide nanoparticles, thus offering a way to rapidly screen nanomaterials and prioritize testing.

  18. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  19. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  20. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    This paper provides detailed insights into predictability of the entire stock and bond return distribution through the use of quantile regression. This allows us to examine speci…c parts of the return distribution such as the tails or the center, and for a suf…ciently …ne grid of quantiles we can...... are predictable as a function of economic state variables. The results are, however, very different for stocks and bonds. The state variables primarily predict only location shifts in the stock return distribution, while they also predict changes in higher-order moments in the bond return distribution. Out...... trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions...

  1. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  2. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  3. Nonparametric Predictive Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Kasparis; Elena Andreou; Phillips, Peter C.B.

    2012-01-01

    A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit...

  4. Aircraft Noise Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper add...

  5. Uncertainty quantified trait predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazayeli, Farideh; Kattge, Jens; Banerjee, Arindam; Schrodt, Franziska; Reich, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Functional traits of organisms are key to understanding and predicting biodiversity and ecological change, which motivates continuous collection of traits and their integration into global databases. Such composite trait matrices are inherently sparse, severely limiting their usefulness for further analyses. On the other hand, traits are characterized by the phylogenetic trait signal, trait-trait correlations and environmental constraints, all of which provide information that could be used to statistically fill gaps. We propose the application of probabilistic models which, for the first time, utilize all three characteristics to fill gaps in trait databases and predict trait values at larger spatial scales. For this purpose we introduce BHPMF, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF). PMF is a machine learning technique which exploits the correlation structure of sparse matrices to impute missing entries. BHPMF additionally utilizes the taxonomic hierarchy for trait prediction. Implemented in the context of a Gibbs Sampler MCMC approach BHPMF provides uncertainty estimates for each trait prediction. We present comprehensive experimental results on the problem of plant trait prediction using the largest database of plant traits, where BHPMF shows strong empirical performance in uncertainty quantified trait prediction, outperforming the state-of-the-art based on point estimates. Further, we show that BHPMF is more accurate when it is confident, whereas the error is high when the uncertainty is high.

  6. Predicting affective choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suri, Gaurav; Sheppes, Gal; Gross, James J

    2013-08-01

    Affect is increasingly recognized as central to decision making. However, it is not clear whether affect can be used to predict choice. To address this issue, we conducted 4 studies designed to create and test a model that could predict choice from affect. In Study 1, we used an image rating task to develop a model that predicted approach-avoidance motivations. This model quantified the role of two basic dimensions of affect--valence and arousal--in determining choice. We then tested the predictive power of this model for two types of decisions involving images: preference based selections (Study 2) and risk-reward trade-offs (Study 3). In both cases, the model derived in Study 1 predicted choice and outperformed competing models drawn from well-established theoretical views. Finally, we showed that this model has ecological validity: It predicted choices between news articles on the basis of headlines (Study 4). These findings have implications for diverse fields, including neuroeconomics and judgment and decision making. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Operational Dust Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas; Jones, Luke; Lu, Sarah; Menut, Laurent; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Mulcahy, Jane; Nickovic, Slobodan; Garcia-Pando, Carlos P.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Sekiyama, Thomas T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Terradellas, Enric; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Xiao-Ye; Zhou, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

  8. Location predicting methods for UAVs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Yu

    2017-08-01

    Location prediction of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is important for fighting with its enemy and ensuring its normal operation. This paper presents the motion model of UAVs and reduces the state space into 7 dimensions. The Bayesian Network, Markov Chain, Curve Fitting and Neural Network are introduced for designing predicting methods. Then Curve Fitting Predicting method, Markov Chain Predicting method, Bayesian Network Predicting method and Neural Network Predicting method are designed for UAVs. The simulation result shows that 1) Neural Network Predicting method has highest predicting accuracy; 2) Markov Chain Predicting method and Bayesian Network Predicting method methods have similar performance and both are better than Bayesian Network Predicting method methods; 3) Neural Network Predicting method is the first choice when predicting the locations of UAVs.

  9. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  10. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  11. Aircraft noise prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippone, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper addresses items for further research and development. Examples are shown for several airplanes, including the Airbus A319-100 (CFM engines), the Bombardier Dash8-Q400 (PW150 engines, Dowty R408 propellers) and the Boeing B737-800 (CFM engines). Predictions are done with the flight mechanics code FLIGHT. The transfer function between flight mechanics and the noise prediction is discussed in some details, along with the numerical procedures for validation and verification. Some code-to-code comparisons are shown. It is contended that the field of aircraft noise prediction has not yet reached a sufficient level of maturity. In particular, some parametric effects cannot be investigated, issues of accuracy are not currently addressed, and validation standards are still lacking.

  12. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes;

    of the water load coming from the tile drainage system is therefore essential. This work aims at predicting tile drainage discharge using dynamic as well as a statistical predictive models. A large dataset of historical tile drain discharge data, daily discharge values as well as yearly average values were......More than 50 % of Danish agricultural areas are expected to be artificial tile drained. Transport of water and nutrients through the tile drain system to the aquatic environment is expected to be significant. For different mitigation strategies such as constructed wetlands an exact knowledge...... used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...

  13. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J.

    2017-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans (N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models’ predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors. PMID:28394693

  14. Partially predictable chaos

    CERN Document Server

    Wernecke, Hendrik; Gros, Claudius

    2016-01-01

    For a chaotic system pairs of initially close-by trajectories become eventually fully uncorrelated on the attracting set. This process of decorrelation is split into an initial decrease characterized by the maximal Lyapunov exponent and a subsequent diffusive process on the chaotic attractor causing the final loss of predictability. The time scales of both processes can be either of the same or of very different orders of magnitude. In the latter case the two trajectories linger within a finite but small distance (with respect to the overall size of the attractor) for exceedingly long times and therefore remain partially predictable. We introduce a 0-1 indicator for chaos capable of describing this scenario, arguing, in addition, that the chaotic closed braids found close to a period-doubling transition are generically partially predictable.

  15. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...

  16. Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

  17. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  18. Nuclear level density predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bucurescu Dorel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Simple formulas depending only on nuclear masses were previously proposed for the parameters of the Back-Shifted Fermi Gas (BSFG model and of the Constant Temperature (CT model of the nuclear level density, respectively. They are now applied for the prediction of the level density parameters of all nuclei with available masses. Both masses from the new 2012 mass table and from different models are considered and the predictions are discussed in connection with nuclear regions most affected by shell corrections and nuclear structure effects and relevant for the nucleosynthesis.

  19. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  20. A Characterization of Prediction Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Meek, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Understanding prediction errors and determining how to fix them is critical to building effective predictive systems. In this paper, we delineate four types of prediction errors and demonstrate that these four types characterize all prediction errors. In addition, we describe potential remedies and tools that can be used to reduce the uncertainty when trying to determine the source of a prediction error and when trying to take action to remove a prediction errors.

  1. Predicting Classroom Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald P.

    A study was conducted at Rancho Santiago College (RSC) to identify personal and academic factors that are predictive of students' success in their courses. The study examined the following possible predictors of success: language and math test scores; background characteristics; length of time out of high school; high school background; college…

  2. Genetically optimizing weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

    2016-07-01

    humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

  3. PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUYong; CHENSu-Ru; ZHOUJin-Ting; LIUJi-Ying

    1989-01-01

    The purpose or this research is: I) to observe the secretory pattern of five reproductive hormones in Chinese women with normal menstrual cyclcs, especially at the prc-ovulatory peroid; 2) to study whether urinary LH measurement could be used instead of serum LH measurement; 3) to evaluate the significance of LH-EIA kit (Right-Day) for ovulation prediction.

  4. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  5. Predictive models in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cestari, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

  6. Predicting Visibility of Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V.; Salud, Ellen

    2009-01-01

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration. PMID:19462007

  7. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    This conceptual article introduces a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans and generate innovations. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second-generat...

  8. Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ROMEYN, J.-W.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generating inductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic, hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. One partition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the other resul

  9. Vertebral Fracture Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Vertebral Fracture Prediction A method of processing data derived from an image of at least part of a spine is provided for estimating the risk of a future fracture in vertebraeof the spine. Position data relating to at least four neighbouring vertebrae of the spine is processed. The curvature...

  10. Predicting rainfall beyond tomorrow

    Science.gov (United States)

    NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues climate precipitation forecasts that offer potential support for water resource managers and farmers and ranchers in New Mexico, but the forecasts are frequently misunderstood and not widely used in practical decision making. The objectives of this newsletter ...

  11. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...

  12. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been...

  13. Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ROMEYN, J.-W.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generating inductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic, hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. One partition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the other resul

  14. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the extent to…

  15. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  16. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    OpenAIRE

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  17. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  18. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes written to ... model predictive control, linear systems, discrete-time systems, ... and then compute very rapidly for this open-loop con-.

  19. THE PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANGXin-Xing; ZHAShu-Wei; WUZhou-Ya

    1989-01-01

    The authors present their work on the prediction of ovulation in forty-five women with normal menstrual cycles for a total of 72 cycles by several indices, including ultrasonography, BBT graph, cervical mucus and mittelschmerz, LH peak values were also determined for reference in 20 cases ( 20 cycles ), Results are as follows:

  20. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorgensen, C.B.; Suetens, S.; Tyran, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto

  1. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  2. Predictability of Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mares, Peter; Balasubramaniam, K. S.

    2009-05-01

    Solar flares are significant drivers of space weather. With the availability of high cadence solar chromospheric and photospheric data from the USAF's Optical Solar PAtrol Network (OSPAN; photosphere and chromosphere imaging) Telescope and the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG; photosphere magnetic imaging), at the National Solar Observatory, we have gained insights into potential uses of the data for solar flare prediction. We apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to parameterize the flaring system and extract consistent observables at solar chromospheric and photospheric layers that indicate a viable recognition of flaring activity. Rather than limiting ourselves to a few known indicators of solar activity, PCA helps us to characterize the entire system using several tens of variables for each observed layer. The components of the Eigen vectors derived from PCA help us recognize and quantify innate characteristics of solar flares and compare them. We will present an analysis of these results to explore the viability of PCA to assist in predicting solar flares.

  3. Crystal structure and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Tejender S; Dubey, Ritesh; Desiraju, Gautam R

    2015-04-01

    The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

  4. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  5. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  6. Prediction of delayed subsidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, K.

    A predictive model of delayed subsidence is discussed. A numerical implementation is tested on one of the best-described study areas, Allegheny County in Pennsylvania. In planning insurance of restitution measures, a predictive model is of value in estimating the magnitude of the problem and the size of long-term budgetary commitments. Contrary to active subsidence, which occurs concurrently with mining operations, or is completed within a few days following coal extraction, delayed subsidence may take many years to appear at the surface after coal mines are abandoned. There are two principal morphological types of delayed subsidence: troughs, which are shallow depressions, and sinks, which are steep-sided crown pits. Both types are damaging to surface structures, and a variety of methods were introduced to deal with the problem, ranging from subsidence insurance to site restitution.

  7. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  8. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...

  9. Prediction of the

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasenjit Dey

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aerodynamic behavior of a square cylinder with rounded corner edges in steady flow regime in the range of Reynolds number (Re 5–45; is predicted by Artificial Neural Network (ANN using MATLAB. The ANN has trained by back propagation algorithm. The ANN requires input and output data to train the network, which is obtained from the commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD software FLUENT in the present study. In FLUENT, all the governing equations are discretized by the finite volume method. Results from numerical simulation and back propagation based ANN have been compared. It has been discovered that the ANN predicts the aerodynamic behavior correctly within the given range of the training data. It is additionally observed that back propagation based ANN is an effective tool to forecast the aerodynamic behavior than simulation, that has very much longer computational time.

  10. Reliability prediction techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whittaker, B.; Worthington, B.; Lord, J.F.; Pinkard, D.

    1986-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying reliability assessment techniques to mining equipment. A number of techniques are identified and described and examples of their use in assessing mining equipment are given. These techniques include: reliability prediction; failure analysis; design audit; maintainability; availability and the life cycle costing. Specific conclusions regarding the usefulness of each technique are outlined. The choice of techniques depends upon both the type of equipment being assessed and its stage of development, with numerical prediction best suited for electronic equipment and fault analysis and design audit suited to mechanical equipment. Reliability assessments involve much detailed and time consuming work but it has been demonstrated that the resulting reliability improvements lead to savings in service costs which more than offset the cost of the evaluation.

  11. From Prediction to Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kristian Steensen

    2017-01-01

    and highlighting the relevance of self-regulation for environmental behavior change. The article focuses on the two primary components of self-regulation: goal setting and goal striving. Self-regulation research differs from the prediction models commonly employed in environmental research (e.g. theory of planned...... behavior or value-belief-norm theory), as it focuses on the dynamic psychological mechanisms that result in either success or failure in acting relative to a certain standard or goal. Similar to the intention-behavior gap, self-regulation research recognizes the occasional failure of people to adhere...... to their own environmental standards and goals. However, unlike prediction models, self-regulation research gives directions on how to reduce the frequency by which these failures occur....

  12. Predictability of Critical Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaozhu; Hallerberg, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However especially in the presence of noise it is not clear, whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model, under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictabil...

  13. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...... numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  14. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  15. Predictive dynamic digital holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, Sennan; Gibson, Steve; Spencer, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high energy laser systems and high speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing to optimize some sharpness criteria. This paper demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches developed recently at UCLA for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum variance wavefront prediction into digital holography schemes to short-circuit the computationally intensive algorithms for iterative propagation of virtual wavefronts and hill climbing for sharpness optimization.

  16. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  17. Predicting appointment breaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, A G; Talaga, J

    1995-01-01

    The goal of physician referral services is to schedule appointments, but if too many patients fail to show up, the value of the service will be compromised. The authors found that appointment breaking can be predicted by the number of days to the scheduled appointment, the doctor's specialty, and the patient's age and gender. They also offer specific suggestions for modifying the marketing mix to reduce the incidence of no-shows.

  18. Nominal model predictive control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2013-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  19. Prediction of Algebraic Instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzky, Paula; King, Kristina; Hill, Nicole; Keithley, Kimberlee; Barlow, Nathaniel; Weinstein, Steven; Cromer, Michael

    2016-11-01

    A widely unexplored type of hydrodynamic instability is examined - large-time algebraic growth. Such growth occurs on the threshold of (exponentially) neutral stability. A new methodology is provided for predicting the algebraic growth rate of an initial disturbance, when applied to the governing differential equation (or dispersion relation) describing wave propagation in dispersive media. Several types of algebraic instabilities are explored in the context of both linear and nonlinear waves.

  20. Multivariate respiratory motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dürichen, R.; Wissel, T.; Ernst, F.; Schlaefer, A.; Schweikard, A.

    2014-10-01

    In extracranial robotic radiotherapy, tumour motion is compensated by tracking external and internal surrogates. To compensate system specific time delays, time series prediction of the external optical surrogates is used. We investigate whether the prediction accuracy can be increased by expanding the current clinical setup by an accelerometer, a strain belt and a flow sensor. Four previously published prediction algorithms are adapted to multivariate inputs—normalized least mean squares (nLMS), wavelet-based least mean squares (wLMS), support vector regression (SVR) and relevance vector machines (RVM)—and evaluated for three different prediction horizons. The measurement involves 18 subjects and consists of two phases, focusing on long term trends (M1) and breathing artefacts (M2). To select the most relevant and least redundant sensors, a sequential forward selection (SFS) method is proposed. Using a multivariate setting, the results show that the clinically used nLMS algorithm is susceptible to large outliers. In the case of irregular breathing (M2), the mean root mean square error (RMSE) of a univariate nLMS algorithm is 0.66 mm and can be decreased to 0.46 mm by a multivariate RVM model (best algorithm on average). To investigate the full potential of this approach, the optimal sensor combination was also estimated on the complete test set. The results indicate that a further decrease in RMSE is possible for RVM (to 0.42 mm). This motivates further research about sensor selection methods. Besides the optical surrogates, the sensors most frequently selected by the algorithms are the accelerometer and the strain belt. These sensors could be easily integrated in the current clinical setup and would allow a more precise motion compensation.

  1. Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    assimilation to either create pairs of different initial conditions (Bei and Zhang 2007, Mapes et al. 2008) or to initialize a large ensemble (Durran et...curves over all wave numbers where the error had not yet saturated. Following the terminology suggested by Mapes et al. (2008), the evolution of... Mapes , B., S. Tulich, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh, 2008: Predictability aspects of global aqua- planet simulations with explicit convection. J. Meteor. Soc

  2. Nominal Model Predictive Control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2014-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  3. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  4. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  5. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  6. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  7. Kuiper Belt Occultation Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Fraser, Wesley C; Trujillo, Chad; Stephens, Andrew W; Kavelaars, JJ; Brown, Michael E; Bianco, Federica B; Boyle, Richard P; Brucker, Melissa J; Hetherington, Nathan; Joner, Michael; Keel, William C; Langill, Phil P; Lister, Tim; McMillan, Russet J; Young, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Here we present observations of 7 large Kuiper Belt Objects. From these observations, we extract a point source catalog with $\\sim0.01"$ precision, and astrometry of our target Kuiper Belt Objects with $0.04-0.08"$ precision within that catalog. We have developed a new technique to predict the future occurrence of stellar occultations by Kuiper Belt Objects. The technique makes use of a maximum likelihood approach which determines the best-fit adjustment to cataloged orbital elements of an object. Using simulations of a theoretical object, we discuss the merits and weaknesses of this technique compared to the commonly adopted ephemeris offset approach. We demonstrate that both methods suffer from separate weaknesses, and thus, together provide a fair assessment of the true uncertainty in a particular prediction. We present occultation predictions made by both methods for the 7 tracked objects, with dates as late as 2015. Finally, we discuss observations of three separate close passages of Quaoar to field star...

  8. Is Suicide Predictable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Asmaee

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background:The current study aimed to test the hypothesis: Is suicide predictable? And try to classify the predictive factors in multiple suicide attempts.Methods:A cross-sectional study was administered to 223 multiple attempters, women who came to a medical poison centre after a suicide attempt.The participants were young, poor, and single.A Logistic Regression Analiysis was used to classify the predictive factors of suicide.Results:Women who had multiple suicide attempts exhibited a significant tendency to attempt suicide again. They had a history for more than two years of multiple suicide attempts, from three to as many as 18 times, plus mental illnesses such as depression and substance abuse.They also had a positive history of mental illnesses.Conclusion:Results indicate that contributing factors for another suicide attempt include previous suicide attempts, mental illness (depression,or a positive history of mental illnesses in the family affecting them at a young age, and substance abuse.

  9. Prediction of resonant oscillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2010-01-01

    The invention relates to methods for prediction of parametric rolling of vessels. The methods are based on frequency domain and time domain information in order do set up a detector able to trigger an alarm when parametric roll is likely to occur. The methods use measurements of e.g. pitch and roll...... oscillations and compare the measured oscillations using FFT analysis of signal correlations, variance analysis of signals and other comparisons. As an example, the presence of a growing peak around a frequency that doubles the roll natural frequency indicates the possibility that parametric roll is going...

  10. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior....... Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  11. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  12. Consciousness -- A Verifiable Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchapakesan, N.

    2014-07-01

    Consciousness may or may not be completely within the realm of science. We have argued elsewhere that there is a high probability that it is not within the purview of science, just like humanities and arts are outside science. Even social sciences do not come under science when human interactions are involved. Here, we suggest a possible experiment to decide whether it is part of science. We suggest that a scientific signal may be available to investigate the prediction in the form of an electromagnetic brainwave background radiation.

  13. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’.......We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...

  14. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    on machine learning techniques. Several MHC class I binding prediction algorithms have been developed and due to their high accuracy they are used by many immunologists to facilitate the conventional experimental process of epitope discovery. However, the accuracy of these methods depends on data defining...... the NetMHCIIpan-3.0 predictor based on artificial neural networks, which is capable of giving binding affinities to any human MHC class II molecule. Chapter 4 of this thesis gives an overview of bioinformatics tools developed by the Immunological Bioinformatics group at Center for Biological Sequence...

  15. Predicting photothermal field performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, C. C.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Photothermal field performance in flat plate solar collectors was predicted. An analytical model which incorporates the measured dependency between transmittance loss and UV and temperature exposure levels was developed. The model uses SOLMET weather data extrapolated to 30 years for various sites and module mounting configurations. It is concluded that the temperature is the key to photothermally induced transmittance loss. The sensitivity of transmittance loss to UV level is nonlinear with minimum in curve near one sun. The ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) results are consistent with 30 year life allocation.

  16. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications...... and water–MEG–aliphatic hydrocarbons LLE using interaction parameters obtained from the binary data alone. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the NRHB equation of state is a versatile tool which can be employed equally well to mixtures with pharmaceuticals and solvents, including mixed solvents, as well...

  17. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...

  18. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...... as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’....

  19. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna

    2017-04-12

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  20. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  1. Predicting Microsurgical Aptitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, Heather A; Kuthubutheen, Jafri; Yao, Christopher; Chen, Joseph M; Lin, Vincent Y

    2015-08-01

    Microscopic techniques are an essential part of otolaryngologic practice. These procedures demand advanced psychomotor and visuospatial skills, and trainees possess these abilities to varying degrees. No method currently exists to predict who will possess an aptitude for microscopic surgery. Our goal was to determine whether performance can be predicted by background experiences or skills. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary academic hospital. Students with no previous surgical experience. Subjects were surveyed on a wide range characteristics thought to affect surgical aptitude, with a primary focus on video gaming and musical training. Subjects performed a microsurgical task using a novel simulator and their performance was assessed by blinded investigators. Forty-six students were assessed. There was no correlation between video gaming and improved microsurgical performance. Rather, video gamers obtained worse scores, although this difference did not reach significance. The majority of students played a musical instrument. Within this group, musicians who began playing at younger ages obtained higher scores, with the highest scores obtained by musicians who began playing before age 6. However, musicians did not obtain higher scores than non-musicians, regardless of their age of initiation. No improvement in microsurgical aptitude was seen in subjects who had a history of video gaming or musical instrument playing.

  2. Energy Predictions 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-10-15

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  3. Theory use in social predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-12-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people's behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.

  4. Theory use in social predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-01-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between o...

  5. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  6. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  7. Permeability prediction in chalks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Prasad, Manika

    2011-01-01

    The velocity of elastic waves is the primary datum available for acquiring information about subsurface characteristics such as lithology and porosity. Cheap and quick (spatial coverage, ease of measurement) information of permeability can be achieved, if sonic velocity is used for permeability....... The relationships between permeability and porosity from core data were first examined using Kozeny’s equation. The data were analyzed for any correlations to the specific surface of the grain, Sg, and to the hydraulic property defined as the flow zone indicator (FZI). These two methods use two different approaches...... to enhance permeability prediction fromKozeny’s equation. The FZI is based on a concept of a tortuous flow path in a granular bed. The Sg concept considers the pore space that is exposed to fluid flow and models permeability resulting from effective flow parallel to pressure drop. The porosity-permeability...

  8. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... forecasts can be generated based on historical timeseries patterns of financial ratios. This is done by modeling the return on equity and the growth-rate in equity as two separate but correlated timeseries processes which converge to a long-term, constant level. Empirical results suggest that these earnings...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...

  9. Requirements for Predictive Analytics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troy Hiltbrand

    2012-03-01

    It is important to have a clear understanding of how traditional Business Intelligence (BI) and analytics are different and how they fit together in optimizing organizational decision making. With tradition BI, activities are focused primarily on providing context to enhance a known set of information through aggregation, data cleansing and delivery mechanisms. As these organizations mature their BI ecosystems, they achieve a clearer picture of the key performance indicators signaling the relative health of their operations. Organizations that embark on activities surrounding predictive analytics and data mining go beyond simply presenting the data in a manner that will allow decisions makers to have a complete context around the information. These organizations generate models based on known information and then apply other organizational data against these models to reveal unknown information.

  10. Predictive coarse-graining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöberl, Markus; Zabaras, Nicholas; Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios

    2017-03-01

    We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method [1] and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

  11. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  12. Emerging approaches in predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D; Rich, Ivan N; Aardema, Marilyn J; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2014-12-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described.

  13. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  14. Protein Chemical Shift Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Larsen, Anders S

    2014-01-01

    The protein chemical shifts holds a large amount of information about the 3-dimensional structure of the protein. A number of chemical shift predictors based on the relationship between structures resolved with X-ray crystallography and the corresponding experimental chemical shifts have been developed. These empirical predictors are very accurate on X-ray structures but tends to be insensitive to small structural changes. To overcome this limitation it has been suggested to make chemical shift predictors based on quantum mechanical(QM) calculations. In this thesis the development of the QM derived chemical shift predictor Procs14 is presented. Procs14 is based on 2.35 million density functional theory(DFT) calculations on tripeptides and contains corrections for hydrogen bonding, ring current and the effect of the previous and following residue. Procs14 is capable at performing predictions for the 13CA, 13CB, 13CO, 15NH, 1HN and 1HA backbone atoms. In order to benchmark Procs14, a number of QM NMR calculatio...

  15. Predictive Food Microbiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Nina Bjerre

    Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw or pasteu......Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw...... or pasteurised milk. This, in combination with the fact that cottage cheese support growth of Listeria monocytogenes, induces a documentation requirement on the food producer. In the EU regulatory framework, mathematical models are recognised as a suitable supplement to traditional microbiological methods...... of the present PhD-project is thought to be important in relation to the development of predictive models that are valuable for, and readily applicable in the food industry....

  16. Predicting happiness among centenarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Alex J; Martin, Peter; MacDonald, Maurice; Poon, Leonard; Jazwinski, S M; Green, R C; Gearing, M; Markesbery, W R; Woodard, J L; Johnson, M A; Tenover, J S; Siegler, I C; Rodgers, W L; Hausman, D B; Rott, C; Davey, A; Arnold, J

    2010-01-01

    Happiness is believed to evolve from the comparison of current circumstances relative to past achievement. However, gerontological literature on happiness in extreme old age has been limited. The purpose of this study was to determine how perceptions of health, social provisions, and economics link past satisfaction with life to current feelings of happiness among persons living to 100 years of age and beyond. A total of 158 centenarians from the Georgia Centenarian Study were included to conduct the investigation. Items reflecting congruence and happiness from the Life Satisfaction Index were used to evaluate a model of happiness. Pathways between congruence, perceived economic security, subjective health, perceived social provisions, and happiness were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Congruence emerged as a key predictor of happiness. Furthermore, congruence predicted perceived economic security and subjective health, whereas perceived economic security had a strong influence on subjective health status. It appears that past satisfaction with life influences how centenarians frame subjective evaluations of health status and economic security. Furthermore, past satisfaction with life is directly associated with present happiness. This presents implications relative to understanding how perception of resources may enhance quality of life among persons who live exceptionally long lives. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Useful theories make predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Stephen and Van Orden (this issue) propose that there is a complex system approach to cognitive science, and collectively the authors of the papers presented in this issue believe that this approach provides the means to drive a revolution in the science of the mind. Unfortunately, however illuminating, this explanation is absent and hyperbole is all too extensive. In contrast, I argue (1) that dynamic systems theory is not new to cognitive science and does not provide a basis for a revolution, (2) it is not necessary to reject cognitive science in order to explain the constraints imposed by the body and the environment, (3) it is not necessary, as Silberstein and Chemero (this issue) appear to do, to reject cognitive science in order to explain consciousness, and (4) our understanding of pragmatics is not advanced by Gibbs and Van Orden's (this issue) "self-organized criticality".? Any debate about the future of cognitive science could usefully focus on predictive adequacy. Unfortunately, this is not the approach taken by the authors of this issue.

  18. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  19. Predicting the unpredictable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonabeau, Eric

    2002-03-01

    The collective behavior of people in crowds, markets, and organizations has long been a mystery. Why, for instance, do employee bonuses sometimes lead to decreases in productivity? Why do some products generate tremendous buzz, seemingly out of nowhere, while others languish despite multimillion-dollar marketing campaigns? How could a simple clerical error snowball into a catastrophic loss that bankrupts a financial institution? Traditional approaches like spreadsheet and regression analyses have failed to explain such "emergent phenomena," says Eric Bonabeau, because they work from the top down, trying to apply global equations and frameworks to a particular situation. But the behavior of emergent phenomena, contends Bonabeau, is formed from the bottom up--starting with the local interactions of individuals who alter their actions in response to other participants. Together, the myriad interactions result in a group behavior that can easily elude any top-down analysis. But now, thanks to "agent-based modeling," some companies are finding ways to analyze--and even predict--emergent phenomena. Macy's, for instance, has used the technology to investigate better ways to design its department stores. Hewlett-Packard has run agent-based simulations to anticipate how changes in its hiring strategy would affect its corporate culture. And Société Générale has used the technology to determine the operational risk of its asset management group. This article discusses emergent phenomena in detail and explains why they have become more prevalent in recent years. In addition to providing real-world examples of companies that have improved their business practices through agent-based modeling, Bonabeau also examines the future of this technology and points to several fields that may be revolutionized by its use.

  20. Predictions From Eternal Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichenauer, Stefan

    We investigate the physics of eternal inflation, particularly the use of multiverse ideas to explain the observed values of the cosmological constant and the coincidences of cosmological timescales. We begin by reviewing eternal inflation, the multiverse, and the resulting measure problem. Then follows a detailed study of proposals to solve the measure problem, both analytical and numerical, including an analysis of their predictions for cosmological observables. A key outcome of this investigation is that the traditional anthropic calculations, which take into account the necessity of galaxies and heavy elements to produce observers, are redundant in our framework. The cosmological coincidence problem, the seemingly coincidental equality of the timescales of observation and of vacuum domination, is solved for the first time without appeal to detailed anthropic assumptions: very general geometric considerations do the job automatically. We also estimate a 10% likelihood that evidence for eternal inflation will be found in upcoming measurements of the energy density of the universe. Encouraged by this success, we go on to construct a modified version of the light-cone time measure which has conceptual advantages but also reproduces the phenomenology of its predecessor. We complete our study of the measure problem by noting that for a wide class of proposed solutions, including the one developed here, there is an implicit assumption being made about a catastrophic end to the universe. Finally, as a by-product of this research program we find geometries which violate some of the accepted common knowledge on holographic entropy bounds. We point this out and conjecture a general result.

  1. Networked and Distributed Predictive Control

    CERN Document Server

    Christofides, Panagiotis D; De La Pena, David Munoz

    2011-01-01

    "Networked and Distributed Predictive Control" presents rigorous, yet practical, methods for the design of networked and distributed predictive control systems - the first book to do so. The design of model predictive control systems using Lyapunov-based techniques accounting for the influence of asynchronous and delayed measurements is followed by a treatment of networked control architecture development. This shows how networked control can augment dedicated control systems in a natural way and takes advantage of additional, potentially asynchronous and delayed measurements to main

  2. Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data

    OpenAIRE

    Fukang Zhu; Zongwu Cai; Liang Peng

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods based on some weighted score equations to test whether the monthly CRSP value-weighted index can be predicted by the log dividend-price ratio or the log earnings-price ratio. Th...

  3. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  4. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Azim, Afzal; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Marak, K Rungmei S K; Gurjar, Mohan

    2014-10-01

    Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC) has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  5. Predictability of Forced Lorenz Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Baosheng; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Zhong, Quanjia

    2017-04-01

    Based on the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach, the influences of external forcing on the predictability are studied in the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces in this paper. The results indicate that for the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces, their predictability limits increase with the forcing strength. With the same magnitude and different directions, the constant or quasi-periodic forcing shows different effects on the predictability limit in the Lorenz system, and these effects become significant with the increase of the forcing strength. Generally speaking, the positive forcing leads to a higher predictability limit than the negative forcing. Therefore, when we think about the effects of positive and negative elements and phases in the atmosphere and ocean research, the predictability problems driven by different phases should be considered separately. In addition, the influences of constant and quasi-periodic forces on the predictability are different in the Lorenz system. The effect of the constant forcing on the predictability is mainly reflected in the linear phase of error growth, while the nonlinear phase should also be considered for the situation of the quasi-periodic forcing. The predictability limit of the system under constant forcing is longer than the system under quasi-periodic forcing. These results based on simple chaotic model could provide insight into the studies of the actual atmosphere predictability.

  6. Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Kawa, S. Ramdy; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

  7. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  8. A tutorial on conformal prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Shafer, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of labels, typically containing $\\hat{y}$, that also contains $y$ with probability $1-\\epsilon$. Conformal prediction can be applied to any method for producing $\\hat{y}$: a nearest-neighbor method, a support-vector machine, ridge regression, etc. Conformal prediction is designed for an on-line setting in which labels are predicted successively, each one being revealed before the next is predicted. The most novel and valuable feature of conformal prediction is that if the successive examples are sampled independently from the same distribution, then the successive predictions will be right $1-\\epsilon$ of the time, even though they are based on an accumulating dataset rather than on independent datasets. In addition to the model under which successive examples are sampled indepen...

  9. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik;

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  10. Predicting Marital Success with PREPARE: A Predictive Validity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowers, Blaine J.; Olson, David H.

    1986-01-01

    Assessed the utility of the premarital inventory, PREPARE, in predicting marital success. Conducted a three-year follow-up study with couples (N=164) who took PREPARE during their engagement. Found that the PREPARE scores from three months before marriage could predict with 80-90% accuracy which couples were separated and divorced from those that…

  11. PREDICT : model for prediction of survival in localized prostate cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkmeijer, Linda G W; Monninkhof, Evelyn M.; van Oort, Inge M.; van der Poel, Henk G.; de Meerleer, Gert; van Vulpen, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Current models for prediction of prostate cancer-specific survival do not incorporate all present-day interventions. In the present study, a pre-treatment prediction model for patients with localized prostate cancer was developed.Methods: From 1989 to 2008, 3383 patients were treated with I

  12. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  13. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2017-01-01

    Predicting failures can be considered a meaningful insight for the optimal planning of an industrial manufacturing process. In this era of advanced sensor technologies, when the collection of data from each step of the manufacturing process is common practice and advanced analytical skills enable...... us to efficiently analyze heterogeneous data streams, predicting failure becomes an achievable task. In this article: first, we propose a data mining strategy to deal with heterogeneous streams of data to predict failures in the production process; second, we aim to build a novel predictive...... manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K...

  14. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  15. Predicting responses in multiple environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malosetti Zunin, Marcos; Bustos-Korts, Daniela; Boer, Martin P.; Eeuwijk, van Fred A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of the phenotypes for a set of genotypes across multiple environments is a fundamental task in any plant breeding program. Genomic prediction (GP) can assist selection decisions by combining incomplete phenotypic information over multiple environments (MEs) with dense sets of markers.

  16. Solomonoff Prediction and Occam's Razor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterkenburg, T.F.

    2016-01-01

    Algorithmic information theory gives an idealized notion of compressibility that is often presented as an objective measure of simplicity. It is suggested at times that Solomonoff prediction, or algorithmic information theory in a predictive setting, can deliver an argument to justify Occam’s razor.

  17. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Two of the most successful short-term prediction models (and the only ones in operational use at utilities) are going to be merged into one: the Risø model, developed by Landberg and the Wind Power Prediction Tool WPPT, developed at the Department of Mathematical Modelling IMM of the Danish Techn...

  18. Predictions of nuclear charge radii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, M.; Lu, Y.; Zhao, Y. M.; Arima, A.

    2016-12-01

    The nuclear charge radius is a fundamental property of an atomic nucleus. In this article we study the predictive power of empirical relations for experimental nuclear charge radii of neighboring nuclei and predict the unknown charge radii of 1085 nuclei based on the experimental CR2013 database within an uncertainty of 0.03 fm.

  19. Update on protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubbard, T; Tramontano, A; Barton, G

    1996-01-01

    Computational tools for protein structure prediction are of great interest to molecular, structural and theoretical biologists due to a rapidly increasing number of protein sequences with no known structure. In October 1995, a workshop was held at IRBM to predict as much as possible about a numbe...

  20. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  1. Predicting Acoustics in Class Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2005-01-01

    Typical class rooms have fairly simple geometries, even so room acoustics in this type of room is difficult to predict using today's room acoustic computer modeling software. The reasons why acoustics of class rooms are harder to predict than acoustics of complicated concert halls might...

  2. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  3. Can Satellites Aid Earthquake Predictions?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John Roach; 李晓辉

    2004-01-01

    @@ Earthquake prediction is an imprecise science, and to illustrate the point,many experts point to the story of Tangshen①, China. On July 28, 1976, a magnitude② 7. 6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshen, China, without warning. None of the signs of the successful prediction from a year and half earlier were present. An estimated 250,000 people died.

  4. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... of prediction necessary and possible in spatial planning of urban development. Finally, the political implications of positions within theory of science rejecting the possibility of predictions about social phenomena are addressed....... phenomena. This position is fundamentally problematic to public planning. Without at least some ability to predict the likely consequences of different proposals, the justification for public sector intervention into market mechanisms will be frail. Statistical methods like regression analyses are commonly...

  5. Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

    2016-05-01

    Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

  6. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    CERN Document Server

    Beyer, T

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of parac...

  7. A Regenerative Prediction Algorithm for Indian Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEEMA MAHAJAN

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasting is critical for the crop planning and water management strategies. Proposed study presents a novel approach for modelling time series precipitation data. The 51 years of Indian rainfall data is used for the development of the model. We use nonlinear predictive code based on 11th order with 240 coefficients. Coefficients are optimized using gradient descendent algorithm. Algorithm is tested using 40 years of rainfall training data. Prediction error tested outside training period is found less than1% for few months. Prediction period is extended to one year by including progressive predicted values in input samples using regenerative feedback algorithm. This model is applied for different training and testing periods with average error of 2% to 10%.

  8. Prediction of Competitive Microbial Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

     Prediction of competitive microbial growth is becoming important for microbial food safety. There would be two approaches to predict competitive microbial growth with mathematical models. The first approach is the development of a growth model for competitive microbes. Among several candidates for the competition model considered, the combination of the primary growth model of the new logistic (NL) model and the competition model of the Lotka-Vorttera (LV) model showed the best performance in predicting microbial competitive growth in the mixed culture of two species. This system further successfully predicted the growth of three competitive species in mixed culture. The second approach is the application of the secondary model especially for the parameter of the maximum cell population in the primary growth model. The combination of the NL model and a polynomial model for the maximum population successfully predicted Salmonella growth in raw ground beef. This system further successfully predicted Salmonella growth in beef at various initial concentrations and temperatures. The first approach requires microbial growth data in monoculture for analysis. The second approach to the prediction of competitive growth from the viewpoint of microbial food safety would be more suitable for practical application.

  9. Toolbox for Protein Structure Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Daniel Barry; McGuffin, Liam James

    2016-01-01

    Protein tertiary structure prediction algorithms aim to predict, from amino acid sequence, the tertiary structure of a protein. In silico protein structure prediction methods have become extremely important, as in vitro-based structural elucidation is unable to keep pace with the current growth of sequence databases due to high-throughput next-generation sequencing, which has exacerbated the gaps in our knowledge between sequences and structures.Here we briefly discuss protein tertiary structure prediction, the biennial competition for the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) and its role in shaping the field. We also discuss, in detail, our cutting-edge web-server method IntFOLD2-TS for tertiary structure prediction. Furthermore, we provide a step-by-step guide on using the IntFOLD2-TS web server, along with some real world examples, where the IntFOLD server can and has been used to improve protein tertiary structure prediction and aid in functional elucidation.

  10. SIFT missense predictions for genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaser, Robert; Adusumalli, Swarnaseetha; Leng, Sim Ngak; Sikic, Mile; Ng, Pauline C

    2016-01-01

    The SIFT (sorting intolerant from tolerant) algorithm helps bridge the gap between mutations and phenotypic variations by predicting whether an amino acid substitution is deleterious. SIFT has been used in disease, mutation and genetic studies, and a protocol for its use has been previously published with Nature Protocols. This updated protocol describes SIFT 4G (SIFT for genomes), which is a faster version of SIFT that enables practical computations on reference genomes. Users can get predictions for single-nucleotide variants from their organism of interest using the SIFT 4G annotator with SIFT 4G's precomputed databases. The scope of genomic predictions is expanded, with predictions available for more than 200 organisms. Users can also run the SIFT 4G algorithm themselves. SIFT predictions can be retrieved for 6.7 million variants in 4 min once the database has been downloaded. If precomputed predictions are not available, the SIFT 4G algorithm can compute predictions at a rate of 2.6 s per protein sequence. SIFT 4G is available from http://sift-dna.org/sift4g.

  11. Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

  12. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  13. Adaptive filtering prediction and control

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Graham C

    2009-01-01

    Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

  14. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  15. Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data

  16. Predicting Success in Elementary Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogull, R. G.; Rosengarten, W., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a device for predicting student success in a high school Elementary Algebra course. It was intended to assist guidance counselors in advising students in selecting the most appropriate mathematics course. (Editor)

  17. Time-predictable Stack Caching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

    complicated and less imprecise. Time-predictable computer architectures provide solutions to this problem. As accesses to the data in caches are one source of timing unpredictability, devising methods for improving the timepredictability of caches are important. Stack data, with statically analyzable......Embedded systems are computing systems for controlling and interacting with physical environments. Embedded systems with special timing constraints where the system needs to meet deadlines are referred to as real-time systems. In hard real-time systems, missing a deadline causes the system to fail...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...

  18. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Mitchell, Rowan A. C.; Whitmore, Andrew P.; Hawkesford, Malcolm J.; Parry, Martin A. J.; Shewry, Peter R.

    2012-06-01

    Predictions of a 40-140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.

  19. New Tool to Predict Glaucoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News About Us Donate In This Section A New Tool to Predict Glaucoma email Send this article ... determine if a patient has glaucoma. Recently, a new tool has become available to eye care specialists ...

  20. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... seen as necessary in order to identify aggregate level effects of policy measures, but are questioned by many advocates of critical realist ontology. Using research into the relationship between urban structure and travel as an example, the paper discusses relevant research methods and the kinds...... of prediction necessary and possible in spatial planning of urban development. Finally, the political implications of positions within theory of science rejecting the possibility of predictions about social phenomena are addressed....

  1. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  2. Time series prediction in agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina-Januchs, M. G.; Quintanilla-Dominguez, J.; Vega-Corona, A.; Andina, D.

    2012-04-01

    This work proposes a novel model to predict time series such as frost, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, all of them important variables for the agriculture process. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms and sensor data fusion are used. The real time series are obtained from different sensors. The clustering algorithms find relationships between variables, clustering involves the task of dividing data sets, which assigns the same label to members who belong to the same group, so that each group is homogeneous and distinct from the others. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the time series prediction. The most important issue of ANN in time series prediction is generalization, which refers to their ability to produce reasonable predictions on data sets other than those used for the estimation of the model parameters.

  3. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  4. GIPSy: Genomic island prediction software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Siomar C; Geyik, Hakan; Ramos, Rommel T J; de Sá, Pablo H C G; Barbosa, Eudes G V; Baumbach, Jan; Figueiredo, Henrique C P; Miyoshi, Anderson; Tauch, Andreas; Silva, Artur; Azevedo, Vasco

    2016-08-20

    Bacteria are highly diverse organisms that are able to adapt to a broad range of environments and hosts due to their high genomic plasticity. Horizontal gene transfer plays a pivotal role in this genome plasticity and in evolution by leaps through the incorporation of large blocks of genome sequences, ordinarily known as genomic islands (GEIs). GEIs may harbor genes encoding virulence, metabolism, antibiotic resistance and symbiosis-related functions, namely pathogenicity islands (PAIs), metabolic islands (MIs), resistance islands (RIs) and symbiotic islands (SIs). Although many software for the prediction of GEIs exist, they only focus on PAI prediction and present other limitations, such as complicated installation and inconvenient user interfaces. Here, we present GIPSy, the genomic island prediction software, a standalone and user-friendly software for the prediction of GEIs, built on our previously developed pathogenicity island prediction software (PIPS). We also present four application cases in which we crosslink data from literature to PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs predicted by GIPSy. Briefly, GIPSy correctly predicted the following previously described GEIs: 13 PAIs larger than 30kb in Escherichia coli CFT073; 1 MI for Burkholderia pseudomallei K96243, which seems to be a miscellaneous island; 1 RI of Acinetobacter baumannii AYE, named AbaR1; and, 1 SI of Mesorhizobium loti MAFF303099 presenting a mosaic structure. GIPSy is the first life-style-specific genomic island prediction software to perform analyses of PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs, opening a door for a better understanding of bacterial genome plasticity and the adaptation to new traits.

  5. Prediction of CBS tidal evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryomova, G. N.

    The time series of basic processes, accompanying the tidal evolution of star components of Close Binary Systems (CBS) are predicted in the framework of evolutionary stellar models by Claret (2004). The series includes the apsidal motion period, timescale of synchronization of axial rotation of a star with the orbital revolution, the orbit circularization timescale, and the age. Data from the catalogues by Svechnikov & Perevozkina (1999) and by Torres, Andersen, Gimenez (2010) are used for testing the sensitivity of the numerical prediction algorithm.

  6. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2006-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. T...

  7. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  8. Prediction of the Chandler wobble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zotov, L.; Bizouard, C.

    2015-08-01

    Chandler wobble amplitude have been decreasing in 2010s as in 1930s. We try to predict its future behaviour through prediction of its complex envelope. The excitation of the Chandler wobble (ChW) reconstructed by Panteleev's filter was also analized. The equation for the complex envelope propagation through the Euler-Liouville equation was derived. Similarities with the climate change characteristics are discussed.

  9. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  10. Predictive Characteristics of Malignant Pheochromocytoma

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Junsoo; Song, Cheryn; Park, Myungchan; Yoo, Sangjun; Park, Se Jun; Hong, SeokJun; Hong, Bumsik; Kim, Choung-Soo; Ahn, Hanjong

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The prognosis of patients with malignant pheochromocytoma is poor, but the predictive factors are not well understood. We aimed to identify the clinical characteristics predictive of malignancy after initial surgical removal in patients with pheochromocytoma. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of 152 patients diagnosed with pheochromocytoma, including 5 (3.3%) with metastasis at the time of the initial surgical excision and 12 (7.9%) who developed metastasis...

  11. Global Predictability and Prediction Skill of Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of horizontal water vapor transport in the midlatitudes and can intensify downstream precipitation and influence flooding, snowpack and water availability. Consequently, there is significant incentive to estimate the predictability and quantify our prediction skill of AR events in operational forecast models, especially weeks to months in advance. Understanding and exploiting the full extent of AR predictability is vital for watershed and hazard preparation and water resource management in areas that are sensitive to heavy precipitation events often associated with ARs. Though the predictability limits and prediction skill of AR-related quantities such as precipitation and integrated vapor transport have recently been quantified for very limited regional areas, a systematic assessment of AR events themselves (with explicit consideration of AR geometries/intensities) using contemporary operational forecast models on a global scale has not yet been made. In this study, we create new objective skill metrics for AR events and quantify predictability limits and prediction skill of ARs in two decades of AR hindcasts from several operational models at lead times ranging from 1 day to 1 month. Our methodology is performed globally, but also allows for regional investigation of observed AR events of interest. We also examine the sensitivity of these skill estimates to large scale modes of climate variability (e.g. the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in an effort to leverage higher skill conditioned upon particular phases of these modes. This study contributes to the overarching goals of the international WMO Subseasonal to Seasonal Project by utilizing operational forecast and hindcast experiments with an emphasis on subseasonal forecasting applications.

  12. Seasonal Drought Prediction in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is among the most costly natural disasters in India. Seasonal prediction of drought can assist planners to manage agriculture and water resources. Such information can be valuable for a country like India where 60% of agriculture is rain-fed. Here we evaluate precipitation and temperature forecast from the NCEP's CFSV2 for seasonal drought prediction in India. We demonstrate the utility of the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature for drought forecast at 1-2 months lead time at a high spatial resolution. Precipitation from CFSv2 showed moderate correlations with observed up to two months lead. For one month lead, we found a significant correlation between CFSv2 and observed precipitation during winter season. Air temperature from the CFSv2 showed a good correlation with observed temperature during the winter. We forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the CFSv2 forecast of precipitation and air temperature to generate forecast of hydrologic variables such as soil moisture and total runoff. We find that errors of the prediction reduce for the two month lead time in the majority of the study domain except the northern India. Skills of Initial Hydrologic Conditions combined with moderate skills of forcings based on the CFSv2 showed ability of drought prediction in India. The developed system was able to successfully predict observed top layer soil moisture and observed drought based on satellite remote sensing in India.

  13. Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.

  14. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart SHIPP

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

  15. Predictive mechanisms in idiom comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vespignani, Francesco; Canal, Paolo; Molinaro, Nicola; Fonda, Sergio; Cacciari, Cristina

    2010-08-01

    Prediction is pervasive in human cognition and plays a central role in language comprehension. At an electrophysiological level, this cognitive function contributes substantially in determining the amplitude of the N400. In fact, the amplitude of the N400 to words within a sentence has been shown to depend on how predictable those words are: The more predictable a word, the smaller the N400 elicited. However, predictive processing can be based on different sources of information that allow anticipation of upcoming constituents and integration in context. In this study, we investigated the ERPs elicited during the comprehension of idioms, that is, prefabricated multiword strings stored in semantic memory. When a reader recognizes a string of words as an idiom before the idiom ends, she or he can develop expectations concerning the incoming idiomatic constituents. We hypothesized that the expectations driven by the activation of an idiom might differ from those driven by discourse-based constraints. To this aim, we compared the ERP waveforms elicited by idioms and two literal control conditions. The results showed that, in both cases, the literal conditions exhibited a more negative potential than the idiomatic condition. Our analyses suggest that before idiom recognition the effect is due to modulation of the N400 amplitude, whereas after idiom recognition a P300 for the idiomatic sentence has a fundamental role in the composition of the effect. These results suggest that two distinct predictive mechanisms are at work during language comprehension, based respectively on probabilistic information and on categorical template matching.

  16. Link Prediction via Matrix Completion

    CERN Document Server

    Pech, Ratha; Pan, Liming; Cheng, Hong; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Inspired by practical importance of social networks, economic networks, biological networks and so on, studies on large and complex networks have attracted a surge of attentions in the recent years. Link prediction is a fundamental issue to understand the mechanisms by which new links are added to the networks. We introduce the method of robust principal component analysis (robust PCA) into link prediction, and estimate the missing entries of the adjacency matrix. On one hand, our algorithm is based on the sparsity and low rank property of the matrix, on the other hand, it also performs very well when the network is dense. This is because a relatively dense real network is also sparse in comparison to the complete graph. According to extensive experiments on real networks from disparate fields, when the target network is connected and sufficiently dense, whatever it is weighted or unweighted, our method is demonstrated to be very effective and with prediction accuracy being considerably improved comparing wit...

  17. Human motion simulation predictive dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Abdel-Malek, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Simulate realistic human motion in a virtual world with an optimization-based approach to motion prediction. With this approach, motion is governed by human performance measures, such as speed and energy, which act as objective functions to be optimized. Constraints on joint torques and angles are imposed quite easily. Predicting motion in this way allows one to use avatars to study how and why humans move the way they do, given specific scenarios. It also enables avatars to react to infinitely many scenarios with substantial autonomy. With this approach it is possible to predict dynamic motion without having to integrate equations of motion -- rather than solving equations of motion, this approach solves for a continuous time-dependent curve characterizing joint variables (also called joint profiles) for every degree of freedom. Introduces rigorous mathematical methods for digital human modelling and simulation Focuses on understanding and representing spatial relationships (3D) of biomechanics Develops an i...

  18. Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors....... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...

  19. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    The problem of predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein given its amino acid sequence is one of the most important open problems in bioinformatics. One of the carbon atoms in amino acids is the C-atom and the overall structure of a protein is often represented by a so-called C...... is competitive in quality and speed with other state-of-the-art decoy generation algorithms. Our third C-trace reconstruction approach is based on bee-colony optimization [24]. We demonstrate why this algorithm has some important properties that makes it suitable for protein structure prediction. Our approach......-trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE...

  20. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2007-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. The PLM model is derived from the existing Pseudobase entries. The innovative DPSS approach calculates the optimally lowest stacking energy between two partner sequences. Combined with the Mfold, PLMM_DPSS can also be used in predicting complicated pseudoknots. The test results of PLMM_DPSS, PKNOTS, iterated loop matching, pknotsRG and HotKnots with Pseudobase sequences have shown that PLMM_DPSS is the most sensitive among the five methods. PLMM_DPSS also provides manageable pseudoknot folding scenarios for further structure determination.

  1. Intelligent Prediction of Ship Maneuvering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Lacki

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author presents an idea of the intelligent ship maneuvering prediction system with the usage of neuroevolution. This may be also be seen as the ship handling system that simulates a learning process of an autonomous control unit, created with artificial neural network. The control unit observes input signals and calculates the values of required parameters of the vessel maneuvering in confined waters. In neuroevolution such units are treated as individuals in population of artificial neural networks, which through environmental sensing and evolutionary algorithms learn to perform given task efficiently. The main task of the system is to learn continuously and predict the values of a navigational parameters of the vessel after certain amount of time, regarding an influence of its environment. The result of a prediction may occur as a warning to navigator to aware him about incoming threat.

  2. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  3. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Two of the most successful short-term prediction models (and the only ones in operational use at utilities) are going to be merged into one: the Risø model, developed by Landberg and the Wind Power Prediction Tool WPPT, developed at the Department of Mathematical Modelling IMM of the Danish...... Technical University. This paper will describe a new project funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy where the largest Danish utilities (Elkraft, Elsam, Eltra and SEAS) are participating. Two advantages can be achieved by combining the effort: The software architecture will be state-of-the-art, using...... the Java2TM platform and Enterprise Java Beans technology, and it will ensure that the best forecasts are given on all prediction horizons from the short range (0-9 hours) to the long range (36-48 hours). This is because the IMM approach uses online data and advanced statistical methods, which...

  4. Algorithms for Drug Sensitivity Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos De Niz

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Precision medicine entails the design of therapies that are matched for each individual patient. Thus, predictive modeling of drug responses for specific patients constitutes a significant challenge for personalized therapy. In this article, we consider a review of approaches that have been proposed to tackle the drug sensitivity prediction problem especially with respect to personalized cancer therapy. We first discuss modeling approaches that are based on genomic characterizations alone and further the discussion by including modeling techniques that integrate both genomic and functional information. A comparative analysis of the prediction performance of four representative algorithms, elastic net, random forest, kernelized Bayesian multi-task learning and deep learning, reflecting the broad classes of regularized linear, ensemble, kernelized and neural network-based models, respectively, has been included in the paper. The review also considers the challenges that need to be addressed for successful implementation of the algorithms in clinical practice.

  5. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production......The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... and HIRLAM predictions. The statistical models belong to the class of conditional parametric models. The models are estimated using local polynomial regression, but the estimation method is here extended to be adaptive in order to allow for slow changes in the system e.g. caused by the annual variations...

  6. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  7. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  8. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  9. Wind energy prediction; Prediccion eolica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiberta, B. J.; Florez, M. V. E.

    2004-07-01

    On March 12th, 2004 the Spanish Government modified the legal situation of the renewable energies following the approval of RD 436/2004. This makes necessary the development of wind energy prediction models for its entrance to the daily electricity market like the conventional energies. The improvement of physical models, meteorological models, or a combination of both, is necessary for the prediction of the wind generation. This will guarantee the wind energy full utilization and the participation in the electrical market, as well as the remuneration of the complementary services and the regulation of reactive electricity. In this way wind energy turns into a perfectly manageable one. (Author)

  10. Methods for Predicting Stock Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha Cecilia García

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a literature review on methods that have been used in the last two decades to predict Stock Market Indexes. Methods studied range from those enabling to grab the linear characteristics present in the stock market indexes, going through those that focus on non-linear features and finally hybrid methods that are more robust, since they capture linear and non-linear features. In addition, this research includes methods that use macroeconomic variables to predict indexes from different stock exchanges around the world.

  11. Predicting Acoustics in Class Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2005-01-01

    Typical class rooms have fairly simple geometries, even so room acoustics in this type of room is difficult to predict using today's room acoustic computer modeling software. The reasons why acoustics of class rooms are harder to predict than acoustics of complicated concert halls might...... coefficients that are used in order to describe surface scattering (roughness of material) as well as scattering of reflected sound caused by limited surface size (diffraction). A method which combines scattering caused by diffraction due to surface dimensions, angle of incidence and incident path length...

  12. Predictive models of forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

    2008-06-13

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

  13. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  14. Dinosaur fossils predict body temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Gillooly

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 degrees C at 12 kg to approximately 41 degrees C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy.

  15. Information criteria for multistep ahead predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Yano, Keisuke; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2015-01-01

    We propose an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions. It is also used for extrapolations. For the derivation, we consider multistep ahead predictions under local misspecification. In the prediction, we show that Bayesian predictive distributions asymptotically have smaller Kullback--Leibler risks than plug-in predictive distributions. From the results, we construct an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions by using an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kull...

  16. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  17. Focus on astronomical predictable events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Aase Roland

    2006-01-01

    At the Steno Museum Planetarium we have for many occasions used a countdown clock to get focus om astronomical events. A countdown clock can provide actuality to predictable events, for example The Venus Transit, Opportunity landing on Mars and The Solar Eclipse. The movement of the clock attracs...

  18. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments.

  19. Bankruptcy Prediction with Rough Sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe bankruptcy prediction problem can be considered an or dinal classification problem. The classical theory of Rough Sets describes objects by discrete attributes, and does not take into account the order- ing of the attributes values. This paper proposes a modification of the Rough Set

  20. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four

  1. Making predictions skill level analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

    2017-01-01

    The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

  2. Predictive medical information and underwriting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, John H

    2007-01-01

    Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

  3. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...

  4. Solution Patterns Predicting Pythagorean Triples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenweani, Ugwunna Louis

    2013-01-01

    Pythagoras Theorem is an old mathematical treatise that has traversed the school curricula from secondary to tertiary levels. The patterns it produced are quite interesting that many researchers have tried to generate a kind of predictive approach to identifying triples. Two attempts, namely Diophantine equation and Brahmagupta trapezium presented…

  5. Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

    2015-12-01

    The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

  6. Predicting Noise From Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

    1990-01-01

    Computer program WINDY predicts broadband noise spectra of horizontal-axis wind-turbine generators. Enables adequate assessment of impact of broadband wind-turbine noise. Effects of turbulence, trailing-edge wakes, and bluntness taken into account. Program has practical application in design and siting of wind-turbine machines acceptable to community. Written in GW-Basic.

  7. Predicting severity of paranoid schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Kolesnichenko Elena Vladimirovna

    2015-01-01

    Clinical symptoms, course and outcomes of paranoid schizophrenia are polymorphic. 206 cases of paranoid schizophrenia were investigated. Clinical predictors were collected from hospital records and interviews. Quantitative assessment of the severity of schizophrenia as special indexes was used. Schizoid, epileptoid, psychasthenic and conformal accentuation of personality in the premorbid, early onset of psychosis, paranoid and hallucinatory-paranoid variants of onset predicted more expressed ...

  8. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-04-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold up to age 106. At that age the death rate is about 50%. Beyond 106 there is so far no convincing statistical evidence available because the number of survivors are too small even in large nations. However, assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis using historical data over a time period of almost two centuries. Another prediction arising from this fixed-point model, is that, above a given population threshold, the lifespan of the oldest persons is independent of the size of their national community. This prediction is also supported by empirical evidence.

  9. Predicting Leakage in Labyrinth Seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, G. L.; Rhode, D. L.; Cogan, K. C.; Chi, D.; Demko, J.

    1985-01-01

    Analytical and empirical methods evaluated. 264-page report presents comprehensive information on leakage in labyrinth seals. Summarizes previous analyses of leakage, reviews leakage tests conducted by authors and evaluates various analytical and experimental methods of determining leakage and discusses leakage prediction techniques.

  10. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four high-

  11. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, J.R.; Gutjar, S.; Horst, ter G.J.; Graaf, de C.; Renken, R.; Jager, G.

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  12. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  13. Working postures: prediction and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delleman, N.J.

    1999-01-01

    To date, workstation designers cannot see the effects of a design on working posture before a mock-up/prototype is available. At that moment, usually the margin for creating the conditions required for adopting favourable working postures is still very limited. Posture prediction at an early design

  14. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-09-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  15. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  16. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  17. Predicting Decades of Shoreline Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. D.; McNinch, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nearshore morphology models predicting storm-scale erosion have been in use for the past several decades. These tools have typically focused on a single time-scale, which limits the utilization. The present effort details the development of a physics-based numerical model that incorporates the cross-shore profile evolution as well as the alongshore variation at two distinct time-scales. The new method assumes that frequent (seconds) bed-level updates due to cross-shore transport gradients are necessary, while the longshore sediment balance can be accumulated numerically over times of about a day before the resultant bottom evolution is imposed. The new model remains consistent for use in a single storm as well as predictions for evolution over several decades. Some limitations exist on the longshore uniformity, and appropriate applications include shorelines with gentle variations in the alongshore conditions arising from nonuniform bathymetry or gradients in wave conditions. Sand transport predictions account for wave and current interaction, bedload and suspended load, and wave-related sediment transport. An initial comparison of 20 years of morphological evolution is conducted for Onslow Beach, NC, a gently-varying contiguous sandy barrier island. Shoreline position data are available for the 10 km of coast fronting the Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune. Wave conditions from the long-term WIS wave hindcast are used, while water levels are developed from the available NOAA tide gauge records. With a complete set of boundary and initial conditions, numerical model results constitute a complete 20 year history of transport and morphological evolution. The wave energy directional spectrum is nearly symmetric relative to the shore-normal transect, and although large sand transport is predicted to the North and to the South at times, a relatively small average residual longshore transport is computed. The measured morphological changes are mixed along the length of

  18. Cast iron - a predictable material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg C. Sturm

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

  19. Summertime Thunderstorms Prediction in Belarus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapo, Palina; Sokolovskaya, Yaroslava; Krasouski, Aliaksandr; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid; Barodka, Siarhei

    2015-04-01

    Mesoscale modeling with the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) system makes it possible to predict thunderstorm formation events by direct numerical simulation. In the present study, we analyze the feasibility and quality of thunderstorm prediction on the territory of Belarus for the summer period of 2014 based on analysis of several characteristic parameters in WRF modeling results that can serve as indicators of thunderstorms formation. These parameters include vertical velocity distribution, convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, SWEAT-index, Thompson index, lifted condensation level (LCL), and others, all of them being indicators of favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorms development. We perform mesoscale simulations of several cases of thunderstorm development in Belarus with WRF-ARW modeling system using 3 km grid spacing, WSM6 microphysics parameterization and explicit convection (no convective parameterization). Typical modeling duration makes 48 hours, which is equivalent to next-day thunderstorm prediction in operational use. We focus our attention to most prominent cases of intense thunderstorms in Minsk. For validation purposes, we use radar and satellite data in addition to surface observations. In summertime, the territory of Belarus is quite often under the influence of atmospheric fronts and stationary anticyclones. In this study, we subdivide thunderstorm cases under consideration into 2 categories: thunderstorms related to free convection and those related to forced convection processes. Our aim is to study the differences in thunderstorm indicator parameters between these two categories of thunderstorms in order to elaborate a set of parameters that can be used for operational thunderstorm forecasting. For that purpose, we analyze characteristic features of thunderstorms development on cold atmospheric fronts as well as thunderstorms formation in stable air masses. Modeling results demonstrate good predictive skill

  20. Predictive Terminal Guidance With Tuning of Prediction Horizon & Constrained Control .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Talole

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Continvojs time-predictive control approach is employed to formulate an output tracking nonlinear, optimal, terminal guidance ,law for re-entry vehicles. The notable features of this formulation are that the system equations are not linearised and the evaluation of the guidanceequations does not need the information of vehicle parameters, such as drag and mass. The formulation allows to impose the physical constrains on the control inputs, i..e. on the demanded lateral acceleliations through a saturation mapping and the controls are obtained using a fixed pointiteration algorithm which converges typically in a few iterations. Further, a simple method of tuning the prediction horizon needed in the guidance equations is presented. Numerical simulations show that the guidance law achieves almost zero terminal errors in all states despite large errors in initial Conditions.

  1. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  2. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  3. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  4. Predictive Control of Speededness in Adaptive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J.

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already administered and posterior predictions that use the…

  5. Colored Noise Prediction Based on Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Fei; Zhang Xiaohui

    2003-01-01

    A method for predicting colored noise by introducing prediction of nonhnear time series is presented By adopting three kinds of neural networks prediction models, the colored noise prediction is studied through changing the filter bandwidth for stochastic noise and the sampling rate for colored noise The results show that colored noise can be predicted The prediction error decreases with the increasing of the sampling rate or the narrowing of the filter bandwidth. If the parameters are selected properly, the prediction precision can meet the requirement of engineering implementation. The results offer a new reference way for increasing the ability for detecting weak signal in signal processing system

  6. Simulation, situated conceptualization, and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsalou, Lawrence W

    2009-05-12

    Based on accumulating evidence, simulation appears to be a basic computational mechanism in the brain that supports a broad spectrum of processes from perception to social cognition. Further evidence suggests that simulation is typically situated, with the situated character of experience in the environment being reflected in the situated character of the representations that underlie simulation. A basic architecture is sketched of how the brain implements situated simulation. Within this framework, simulators implement the concepts that underlie knowledge, and situated conceptualizations capture patterns of multi-modal simulation associated with frequently experienced situations. A pattern completion inference mechanism uses current perception to activate situated conceptualizations that produce predictions via simulations on relevant modalities. Empirical findings from perception, action, working memory, conceptual processing, language and social cognition illustrate how this framework produces the extensive prediction that characterizes natural intelligence.

  7. Predictive State Temporal Difference Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Boots, Byron

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a line...

  8. Action semantics modulate action prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Anne; Prinz, Wolfgang

    2010-11-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that action prediction involves an internal action simulation that runs time-locked to the real action. The present study replicates and extends these findings by indicating a real-time simulation process (Graf et al., 2007), which can be differentiated from a similarity-based evaluation of internal action representations. Moreover, results showed that action semantics modulate action prediction accuracy. The semantic effect was specified by the processing of action verbs and concrete nouns (Experiment 1) and, more specifically, by the dynamics described by action verbs (Experiment 2) and the speed described by the verbs (e.g., "to catch" vs. "to grasp" vs. "to stretch"; Experiment 3). These results propose a linkage between action simulation and action semantics as two yet unrelated domains, a view that coincides with a recent notion of a close link between motor processes and the understanding of action language.

  9. Predicting responses from Rasch measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, John M

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing family of Rasch models for polytomous observations. Selecting a suitable model for an existing dataset, estimating its parameters and evaluating its fit is now routine. Problems arise when the model parameters are to be estimated from the current data, but used to predict future data. In particular, ambiguities in the nature of the current data, or overfit of the model to the current dataset, may mean that better fit to the current data may lead to worse fit to future data. The predictive power of several Rasch and Rasch-related models are discussed in the context of the Netflix Prize. Rasch-related models are proposed based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Boltzmann Machines.

  10. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  11. On long term climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thatcher, M.

    1990-08-01

    On the occasion of the opening of The Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire on May 25, 1990, Britain's Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, FRS, related the significance of the Centre to the Scientific Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change which was published on the same day. The Report confirms that greenhouse gases are increasing substantially as a result of man's activites; that this will warm the Earth's surface, with serious consequences for us all, and that these consequences are capable of prediction. We want to predict them more accurately. Calling the Report an authoritative early warning system which could be ignored only at great risk to future generations, Mrs. Margaret Thatcher described the role of the Centre in enabling the establishment of a realistic international program and timetable for action.

  12. Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

  13. Predicting Failures in Power Grids

    CERN Document Server

    Chertkov, Michael; Stepanov, Mikhail G

    2010-01-01

    Here we develop an approach to predict power grid weak points, and specifically to efficiently identify the most probable failure modes in load distribution for a given power network. This approach is applied to two examples: Guam's power system and also the IEEE RTS-96 system, both modeled within the static Direct Current power flow model. Our algorithm is a power network adaption of the worst configuration heuristics, originally developed to study low probability events in physics and failures in error-correction. One finding is that, if the normal operational mode of the grid is sufficiently healthy, the failure modes, also called instantons, are sufficiently sparse, i.e. the failures are caused by load fluctuations at only a few buses. The technique is useful for discovering weak links which are saturated at the instantons. It can also identify overutilized and underutilized generators, thus providing predictive capability for improving the reliability of any power network.

  14. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  15. WAVE ASSIMILATION AND NUMERICAL PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    An adjoint variational method for wave data assimilation in the LAGFD-WAM wave model is proposed. The adjoint equation of the wavenumber energy spectrum balance equation is derived. And fortunately, its characteristic equations are the same as those in the LAGFD-WAM wave model. Simple experiments on the functional optimization and assimilation effectiveness during the prediction period indicated that the adjoint variational method is effective for wave assimilation and that the initial optimization of the wave model is important for the short-range wave prediction. All of this is under the assumption that the wind field is accurate, the method is the important first step for combined wind and wave data assimilation systems.

  16. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  17. Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeberl Martin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

  18. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  19. ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    the Navy the capability to conduct short-term (1 week) to extended (2 weeks) coupled weather forecasts for the Arctic region. APPROACH To...sensitivity of the Arctic weather forecast to key numerical parameters; and 5) conduct extensive validation and verification of the coupled system and...SEP 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System 5a. CONTRACT

  20. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  1. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular deve...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  2. Prediction of future asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  3. Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  4. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poenaru, D. N.; Greiner, W.; Ivascu, M.

    1989-10-01

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for 14C, 24, 25, 26Ne, 28, 30Mg and 32Si radioactivities in the range 10 11-10 26 s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to α-decay 10 -16 - 10 -9 have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude.

  5. Prediction for RNA planar pseudoknots

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Hengwu; Zhu Daming; Liu Zhendong; Li Hong

    2007-01-01

    Based on m-stems and semi-extensible structure, a model is presented to represent RNA planar pseudoknots, and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm is designed and implemented to predict arbitrary planar pseudoknots and simple non-planar pseudoknots with O(n4) time and O(n3) space. The algorithm folds total 245 sequences in the Pseudobase database, and the test results indicate that the algorithm has good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.

  6. The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    executive potential, psychopathy , suicidality and so forth. Unfor- tunately, this is not the case. There tend to be substantial dif- ferences among...Prediction from case material to personality data. New York Archives of Psychology, 29 (No. 207). Hare, R. D. (1970). Psychopathy : Theory and research. New...1967). Psychopathy , mental deficiency, aggressiveness, and the XYY syndrome. Nature, 214, (5087), 500-501. Wexler, D. (1979). Patients, therapists

  7. Structure Prediction of Membrane Proteins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chunlong Zhou; Yao Zheng; Yan Zhou

    2004-01-01

    There is a large gap between the number of membrane protein (MP) sequences and that of their decoded 3D structures, especially high-resolution structures, due to difficulties in crystal preparation of MPs. However, detailed knowledge of the 3D structure is required for the fundamental understanding of the function of an MP and the interactions between the protein and its inhibitors or activators. In this paper, some computational approaches that have been used to predict MP structures are discussed and compared.

  8. Finite Unification: Theory and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven Heinemeyer

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs which not only realise an old field theoretic dream but also have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTS have been constructed. Here we present FUT models based on the SU(5 and SU(3^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Higgs mass prediction of one of the models which is expected to be tested at the LHC.

  9. Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L; Nijhof, Annabel D; Hagoort, Peter; van den Bosch, Antal

    2016-06-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  11. Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

  12. Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

  13. Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

    2012-03-01

    Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance - with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used - an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli.

  14. Aviation turbulence processes, detection, prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

  15. Predicting word sense annotation agreement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Alonso, Hector; Johannsen, Anders Trærup; Lopez de Lacalle, Oier

    2015-01-01

    High agreement is a common objective when annotating data for word senses. However, a number of factors make perfect agreement impossible, e.g. the limitations of the sense inventories, the difficulty of the examples or the interpretation preferences of the annotations. Estimating potential...... agreement is thus a relevant task to supplement the evaluation of sense annotations. In this article we propose two methods to predict agreement on word-annotation instances. We experiment with a continuous representation and a three-way discretization of observed agreement. In spite of the difficulty...

  16. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freivogel, Ben, E-mail: benfreivogel@gmail.com [Center for Theoretical Physics and Laboratory for Nuclear Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-10-21

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  17. Learning to predict chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

    2011-09-26

    Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

  18. Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Akgun, Bora; Tuter, Levent; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating the statistical connection between the climate types of the present and these local temperatures. We are relating this issue to some well-known historic climate shifts. Our main result is that the temperature fluctuations with or without a temperature scale attached to them, can be used to classify climates in the absence of other indicators such as pan evaporation and precipitation.

  19. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  20. Prediction of Swedish Harness Racing.

    OpenAIRE

    Josefsson, Jonas; Hellander, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Harness racing is a sport where betting most often is done based on historical performances and known conditions from each horse. With up to 12-15 horses in each race and with a quite large set of data for each horse, harness racing seemed to be very suitable for some statistical modeling and regression analysis. The main goal of this project was to construct a model that predicts the outcome of a race better than the odds. To achieve this, many dierent covariates, and combinations of them, h...

  1. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

  2. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poenaru, D.N. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania); Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Greiner, W. (Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Ivascu, M. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania))

    1989-10-09

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for {sup 14}C, {sup 24,25,26}Ne, {sup 28,30}Mg and {sup 32}Si radioactivities in the range 10{sup 11}-10{sup 26} s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to {alpha}-decay 10{sup -16}-10{sup -9} have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude. (orig.).

  3. Prenatal prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triebwasser, Jourdan E; Treadwell, Marjorie C

    2017-03-15

    Pulmonary hypoplasia, although rare, is associated with significant neonatal morbidity and mortality. Conditions associated with pulmonary hypoplasia include those which limit normal thoracic capacity or movement, including skeletal dysplasias and abdominal wall defects; those with mass effect, including congenital diaphragmatic hernia and pleural effusions; and those with decreased amniotic fluid, including preterm, premature rupture of membranes, and genitourinary anomalies. The ability to predict severe pulmonary hypoplasia prenatally aids in family counseling, as well as obstetric and neonatal management. The objective of this review is to outline the imaging techniques that are widely used prenatally to assess pulmonary hypoplasia and to discuss the limitations of these methods.

  4. Predicting Ship Fuel Consumption: Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-07-01

    ship propulsion fuel consumption as a function of ship speed for U.S. Navy combatant and auxiliary ships. Prediction is based on fitting an analytic function to published ship class speed-fuel use data using nonlinear regression. The form of the analytic function fitted is motivated by the literature on ship powering and resistance. The report discusses data sources and data issues, and the impact of ship propulsion plant configuration on fuel use. The regression coefficients of the exponential function fitted, tabular numerical comparison of

  5. MPC-Relevant Prediction-Error Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...

  6. Improving the prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李克平; 高自友; 陈天仑

    2003-01-01

    One of the features of deterministic chaos is sensitive to initial conditions. This feature limits the prediction horizons of many chaotic systems. In this paper, we propose a new prediction technique for chaotic time series. In our method, some neighbouring points of the predicted point, for which the corresponding local Lyapunov exponent is particularly large, would be discarded during estimating the local dynamics, and thus the error accumulated by the prediction algorithm is reduced. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of Lorenz systems. The simulation results indicate that the prediction technique can improve the prediction of chaotic time series.

  7. Radio Channel State Prediction by Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Ziacik

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article there is the description Kalman filter using as a radio channel state predictor. Simulator of prediction has been created in MATLAB environment and it is capable to simulate the prediction of radio signal envelope by Clark’s model of radio channel, which is implemented to the simulator. Simulations were realized for prediction range 0.41 ms and 6.24 ms and as comparing criterion we used the prediction error. It is clear from simulations, that with the duration of prediction the prediction error is enlarging, which may cause the erroneous decision of adaptation algorithms.

  8. The limits to stock return predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Robertson, D.; Wright, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    We examine predictive return regressions from a new angle. We ask what observable\\ud univariate properties of returns tell us about the “predictive space” that defines the true\\ud predictive model: the triplet ¡\\ud λ, R2\\ud x, ρ¢\\ud , where λ is the predictor’s persistence, R2\\ud x is the\\ud predictive R-squared, and ρ is the "Stambaugh Correlation" (between innovations in the\\ud predictive system). When returns are nearly white noise, and the variance ratio slopes\\ud downwards, the predictive...

  9. Menopause prediction and potential implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Fauser, Bart C J M

    2015-11-01

    Reproductive ageing in women is characterized by a decline in both the quantity and quality of oocytes. Menopause is reached upon exhaustion of the resting primordial follicle pool, occurring on average at 51 years of age (range 40-60 years). The mean global age at natural menopause (ANM) appears robust, suggesting a distinct genetic control. Accordingly, a strong correlation in ANM is observed between mothers and daughters. Few specific genetic determinants of ANM have been identified. Substantial efforts have been made to predict ANM by using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. AMH serum concentrations at reproductive age predict ANM, but precision is currently limited. Early ANM is associated with early preceding fertility loss, whereas late menopause is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality later in life. Menopause affects various women's health aspects, including bone density, breast, the cardiovascular system, mood/cognitive function and sexual well-being. If the current trend of increasing human life expectancy persists, women will soon spend half their life postmenopause. Unfortunately, increased longevity does not coincide with an equal increase in years spend in good health. Future research should focus on determinants of long term health effects of ANM, and efforts to improve women's postmenopausal health and quality of life.

  10. Emotional arousal predicts intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Johnson, Eli; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-08-01

    People generally prefer immediate rewards to rewards received after a delay, often even when the delayed reward is larger. This phenomenon is known as temporal discounting. It has been suggested that preferences for immediate rewards may be due to their being more concrete than delayed rewards. This concreteness may evoke an enhanced emotional response. Indeed, manipulating the representation of a future reward to make it more concrete has been shown to heighten the reward's subjective emotional intensity, making people more likely to choose it. Here the authors use an objective measure of arousal-pupil dilation-to investigate if emotional arousal mediates the influence of delayed reward concreteness on choice. They recorded pupil dilation responses while participants made choices between immediate and delayed rewards. They manipulated concreteness through time interval framing: delayed rewards were presented either with the date on which they would be received (e.g., "$30, May 3"; DATE condition, more concrete) or in terms of delay to receipt (e.g., "$30, 7 days; DAYS condition, less concrete). Contrary to prior work, participants were not overall more patient in the DATE condition. However, there was individual variability in response to time framing, and this variability was predicted by differences in pupil dilation between conditions. Emotional arousal increased as the subjective value of delayed rewards increased, and predicted choice of the delayed reward on each trial. This study advances our understanding of the role of emotion in temporal discounting. (PsycINFO Database Record

  11. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    CERN Document Server

    Richmond, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far no statistical evidence available because the number of survivors is too small even in the largest nations. However assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1,000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis usi...

  12. Conditional replenishment using motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, D. N.; Jones, H. W., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Conditional replenishment is an interframe video compression method that uses correlation in time to reduce video transmission rates. This method works by detecting and sending only the changing portions of the image and by having the receiver use the video data from the previous frame for the non-changing portion. The amount of compression that can be achieved through this technique depends to a large extent on the rate of change within the image, and can vary from 10 to 1 to less than 2 to 1. An additional 3 to 1 reduction in rate is obtained by the intraframe coding of data blocks using a 2-dimensional variable rate Hadamard transform coder. A further additional 2 to 1 rate reduction is achieved by using motion prediction. Motion prediction works by measuring the relative displacements of a subpicture from one frame to the next. The subpicture can then be transmitted by sending only the value of the 2-dimensional displacement. Computer simulations have demonstrated that data rates of 2 to 4 Mega-bits/second can be achieved while still retaining good fidelity in the image.

  13. Predicting educational achievement from DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selzam, S; Krapohl, E; von Stumm, S; O'Reilly, P F; Rimfeld, K; Kovas, Y; Dale, P S; Lee, J J; Plomin, R

    2017-01-01

    A genome-wide polygenic score (GPS), derived from a 2013 genome-wide association study (N=127,000), explained 2% of the variance in total years of education (EduYears). In a follow-up study (N=329,000), a new EduYears GPS explains up to 4%. Here, we tested the association between this latest EduYears GPS and educational achievement scores at ages 7, 12 and 16 in an independent sample of 5825 UK individuals. We found that EduYears GPS explained greater amounts of variance in educational achievement over time, up to 9% at age 16, accounting for 15% of the heritable variance. This is the strongest GPS prediction to date for quantitative behavioral traits. Individuals in the highest and lowest GPS septiles differed by a whole school grade at age 16. Furthermore, EduYears GPS was associated with general cognitive ability (~3.5%) and family socioeconomic status (~7%). There was no evidence of an interaction between EduYears GPS and family socioeconomic status on educational achievement or on general cognitive ability. These results are a harbinger of future widespread use of GPS to predict genetic risk and resilience in the social and behavioral sciences. PMID:27431296

  14. Predictive simulation of nonlinear ultrasonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanfeng; Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2012-04-01

    Most of the nonlinear ultrasonic studies to date have been experimental, but few theoretical predictive studies exist, especially for Lamb wave ultrasonic. Compared with nonlinear bulk waves and Rayleigh waves, nonlinear Lamb waves for structural health monitoring become more challenging due to their multi-mode dispersive features. In this paper, predictive study of nonlinear Lamb waves is done with finite element simulation. A pitch-catch method is used to interrogate a plate with a "breathing crack" which opens and closes under tension and compression. Piezoelectric wafer active sensors (PWAS) used as transmitter and receiver are modeled with coupled field elements. The "breathing crack" is simulated via "element birth and death" technique. The ultrasonic waves generated by the transmitter PWAS propagate into the structure, interact with the "breathing crack", acquire nonlinear features, and are picked up by the receiver PWAS. The features of the wave packets at the receiver PWAS are studied and discussed. The received signal is processed with Fast Fourier Transform to show the higher harmonics nonlinear characteristics. A baseline free damage index is introduced to assess the presence and the severity of the crack. The paper finishes with summary, conclusions, and suggestions for future work.

  15. Use of Feedback in Clinical Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Harold E.

    1972-01-01

    Results indicated that predictive accuracy is greater when feedback is applied to the basis for the prediction than when applied to gut" impressions. Judges forming hypotheses were also able to learn from experience. (Author)

  16. Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross, Suzi; Hansen, Niels Christian

    2016-01-01

    Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;......Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;...

  17. Prediction of Recovery from Coma After CPR

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... THEIR FAMILIES PREDICTION OF RECOVERY FROM COMA AFTER CPR This summary will provide you with information about ... help doctors predict poor recovery from coma after CPR. In this case, poor recovery means death, continued ...

  18. Statistical prediction of Late Miocene climate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Fernandes, A.A.; Gupta, S.M.

    The theory of statistical prediction of paleoclimate (Imbrie and Kipp, 1971), which includes multiple regression analysis and factor analysis is reviewed. Necessary software is listed. An application to predicting palaeo oceanographic parameters...

  19. Prediction of Unsteady Transonic Aerodynamics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An accurate prediction of aero-elastic effects depends on an accurate prediction of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Perhaps the most difficult speed regime is...

  20. Collective prediction based on community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yasong; Li, Taisong; Zhang, Yan; Yan, Yonghong

    2017-01-01

    Collective prediction algorithms have been used to improve performances when network structures are involved in prediction tasks. The training dataset of such tasks often contain information of content, links and labels, while the testing dataset have only content and link information. Conventional collective prediction algorithms conduct predictions based on the content of a node and the information of its direct neighbors with a base classifier. However, the information of some direct neighbor nodes may be not consistent with the target one. In addition, the information of indirect neighbors can be helpful when that of direct neighbors is scant. In this paper, instead of using information of direct neighbors, we propose to apply community structures in networks to prediction tasks. A community detection method is aggregated into the collective prediction process to improve prediction performance. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms a number of standard prediction algorithms specially under conditions that labeled training dataset are limited.

  1. Protein Residue Contacts and Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Badri

    2016-01-01

    In the field of computational structural proteomics, contact predictions have shown new prospects of solving the longstanding problem of ab initio protein structure prediction. In the last few years, application of deep learning algorithms and availability of large protein sequence databases, combined with improvement in methods that derive contacts from multiple sequence alignments, have shown a huge increase in the precision of contact prediction. In addition, these predicted contacts have also been used to build three-dimensional models from scratch. In this chapter, we briefly discuss many elements of protein residue–residue contacts and the methods available for prediction, focusing on a state-of-the-art contact prediction tool, DNcon. Illustrating with a case study, we describe how DNcon can be used to make ab initio contact predictions for a given protein sequence and discuss how the predicted contacts may be analyzed and evaluated. PMID:27115648

  2. The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnittjer, Carl J.

    The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

  3. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    2006-01-01

    While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usuall...

  4. ADAPTIVE GENERALIZED PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF SWITCHED SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi-jing; WANG Long

    2005-01-01

    The problem of adaptive generalized predictive control which consists of output prediction errors for a class of switched systems is studied. The switching law is determined by the output predictive errors of a finite number of subsystems. For the single subsystem and multiple subsystems cases, it is proved that the given direct algorithm of generalized predictive control guarantees the global convergence of the system. This algorithm overcomes the inherent drawbacks of the slow convergence and large transient errors for the conventional adaptive control.

  5. Predicting Electrochromic Smart Window Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degerman Engfeldt, Johnny

    2012-07-01

    The building sector is one of the largest consumers of energy, where the cooling of buildings accounts for a large portion of the total energy consumption. Electrochromic (EC) smart windows have a great potential for increasing indoor comfort and saving large amounts of energy for buildings. An EC device can be viewed as a thin-film electrical battery whose charging state is manifested in optical absorption, i.e. the optical absorption increases with increased state-of-charge (SOC) and decreases with decreased state-of-charge. It is the EC technology's unique ability to control the absorption (transmittance) of solar energy and visible light in windows with small energy effort that can reduce buildings' cooling needs. Today, the EC technology is used to produce small windows and car rearview mirrors, and to reach the construction market it is crucial to be able to produce large area EC devices with satisfactory performance. A challenge with up-scaling is to design the EC device system with a rapid and uniform coloration (charging) and bleaching (discharging). In addition, up-scaling the EC technology is a large economic risk due to its expensive production equipment, thus making the choice of EC material and system extremely critical. Although this is a well-known issue, little work has been done to address and solve these problems. This thesis introduces a cost-efficient methodology, validated with experimental data, capable of predicting and optimizing EC device systems' performance in large area applications, such as EC smart windows. This methodology consists of an experimental set-up, experimental procedures and a two dimensional current distribution model. The experimental set-up, based on camera vision, is used in performing experimental procedures to develop and validate the model and methodology. The two-dimensional current distribution model takes secondary current distribution with charge transfer resistance, ohmic and time

  6. Predicting casualties implied by TIPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Wyss, M.; Wyss, B. M.

    2009-12-01

    When an earthquake is predicted, forecast, or expected with a higher than normal probability, losses are implied. We estimated the casualties (fatalities plus injured) that should be expected if earthquakes in TIPs (locations of Temporarily Increased Probability of earthquakes) defined by Kossobokov et al. (2009) should occur. We classified the predictions of losses into the categories red (more than 400 fatalities or more than 1,000 injured), yellow (between 100 and 400 fatalities), green (fewer than 100 fatalities), and gray (undetermined). TIPs in Central Chile, the Philippines, Papua, and Taiwan are in the red class, TIPs in Southern Sumatra, Nicaragua, Vanatu, and Honshu in the yellow class, and TIPs in Tonga, Loyalty Islands, Vanatu, S. Sandwich Islands, Banda Sea, and the Kuriles, are classified as green. TIPs where the losses depend moderately on the assumed point of major energy release were classified as yellow; TIPs such as in the Talaud Islands and in Tonga, where the losses depend very strongly on the location of the epicenter, were classified as gray. The accuracy of loss estimates after earthquakes with known hypocenter and magnitude are affected by uncertainties in transmission and soil properties, the composition of the building stock, the population present, and the method by which the numbers of casualties are calculated. In the case of TIPs, uncertainties in magnitude and location are added, thus we calculate losses for a range of these two parameters. Therefore, our calculations can only be considered order of magnitude estimates. Nevertheless, our predictions can come to within a factor of two of the observed numbers, as in the case of the M7.6 earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan that resulted in 85,000 fatalities (Wyss, 2005). In subduction zones, the geometrical relationship between the earthquake source capable of a great earthquake and the population is clear because there is only one major fault plane available, thus the epicentral

  7. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  8. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as wel

  9. Prediction of twin-arginine signal peptides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jannick Dyrløv; Nielsen, Henrik; Widdick, D.;

    2005-01-01

    peptides and 84% of the annotated cleavage sites of these Tat signal peptides were correctly predicted. This method generates far less false positive predictions on various datasets than using simple pattern matching. Moreover, on the same datasets TatP generates less false positive predictions than...

  10. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  11. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as

  12. Predictive control of speededness in adaptive testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already

  13. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    in the predictions. All attempts to make ab initio predictions based on protein structure have failed to reach predictive performances similar to those that can be obtained by data-driven methods. Thousands of different MHC-II alleles exist in humans. Recently developed pan-specific methods have been able to make...

  14. Using "Prediction" to Promote Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ok-Kyeong; Kasmer, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    This article introduces prediction as a useful tool to promote mathematical reasoning. First, the article addresses prediction expectations in state standards and gives examples. It also provides a classroom example and activities to illustrate what prediction can look like and how it can serve as a building block for the development of students'…

  15. Efficient marker data utilization in genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid

    Genomic prediction is a novel method to recognize the best animals for breeding. The aim of this PhD is to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in dairy cattle by effeiently utilizing marker data. The thesis focuses on three aspects for improving the genomc prediction, which are: criteria...

  16. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...

  17. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as wel

  18. Universal Prior Prediction for Communication

    CERN Document Server

    Lomnitz, Yuval

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of communicating over an unknown and arbitrarily varying channel, using feedback. This paper focuses on the problem of determining the input behavior, or more specifically, a prior which is used to randomly generate a codebook. We pose the problem of setting the prior as a universal sequential prediction problem using information theoretic abstractions of the communication channel. For the case where the channel is block-wise constant, we show it is possible to asymptotically approach the best rate that can be attained by any system using a fixed prior. For the case where the channel may change on each symbol, we combine a rateless coding scheme with a prior predictor and asymptotically approach the capacity of the average channel universally for every sequence of channels.

  19. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Arnab Rai Choudhuri

    2008-03-01

    Although we have reliable data of solar polar fields only from the mid-1970s, it seems that the polar field at a minimum is well correlated with the next cycle, but the strength of the cycle is not correlated with the polar field produced at its end. We explain this by suggesting that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from tilted active regions involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process are more ordered. To model actual cycles, we have to ‘correct’ our theoretical dynamo model by ‘feeding’ information about the polar field at the minima. Following this process, we find that our model fits the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21–23 reasonably well and predicts that cycle 24 will be the weakest in a century.

  20. Pretest Predictions for Ventilation Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Sun; H. Yang; H.N. Kalia

    2007-01-17

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, concrete pipe walls, and insulation that will be developed during the ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as input to the following three areas: (1) Decisions regarding testing set-up and performance. (2) Assessing how best to scale the test phenomena measured. (3) Validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the ventilation tests, and develop and describe numerical methods that can be used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. Sensitivity studies to assess the impact of variation of linear power densities (linear heat loads) and ventilation air flow rates are included. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only.