WorldWideScience

Sample records for plasma-wall interaction scenarios

  1. Intense Magnetized Plasma-Wall Interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Bruno S. [UNR; Fuelling, Stephan [UNR

    2013-11-30

    This research project studied wall-plasma interactions relevant to fusion science. Such interactions are a critical aspect of Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) because flux compression by a pusher material, in particular the metal for the liner approach to MIF, involves strong eddy current heating on the surface of the pusher, and probably interactions and mixing of the pusher with the interior fuel during the time when fusion fuel is being burned. When the pusher material is a metal liner, high-energy-density conditions result in fascinating behavior. For example, "warm dense matter" is produced, for which material properties such as resistivity and opacity are not well known. In this project, the transformation into plasma of metal walls subjected to pulsed megagauss magnetic fields was studied with an experiment driven by the UNR 1 MA Zebra generator. The experiment was numerically simulated with using the MHRDR code. This simple, fundamental high-energy-density physics experiment, in a regime appropriate to MIF, has stimulated an important and fascinating comparison of numerical modeling codes and tables with experiment. In addition, we participated in developing the FRCHX experiment to compress a field-reversed-configuration (FRC) plasma with a liner, in collaboration with researchers from Air Force Research Laboratory and Los Alamos National Lab, and we helped develop diagnostics for the Plasma Liner Experiment (PLX) at LANL. Last, but not least, this project served to train students in high-energy-density physics.

  2. Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction; Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Tree-Codes in Simulationsszenarios der Plasma-Wand-Wechselwirkung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berberich, Benjamin

    2012-03-15

    Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

  3. Materials Analysis of Transient Plasma-Wall Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-13

    model showing the importance sputter and re-deposition. plasma, pulsed plasma, directed energy, transient wall interaction, high energy density...each equipped with a 25kV copper- vapor thyratron start switch capable of sub-microsecond triggering resolution. Each start switch is paired with a...sample exposure positions within the plasma jet. The probe utilizes a PCB Piezotronics model 113B21 pressure sensor modified to work in the plasma jet

  4. Level crossings, excess times and transient plasma-wall interactions in fusion plasmas

    CERN Document Server

    Theodorsen, Audun

    2016-01-01

    Based on a stochastic model for intermittent fluctuations in the boundary region of magnetically confined plasmas, an expression for the level crossing rate is derived from the joint distribution of the process and its derivative. From this the average time spent by the process above a certain threshold level is obtained. This provides novel predictions of plasma-wall interactions due to transient transport events associated with radial motion of blob-like structures in the scrape-off layer.

  5. The plasma focus as a tool for plasma-wall-interaction studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, G.; Martinez, M.; Herrera, J. J. E.; Castillo, F.

    2015-03-01

    The study of the interaction of magnetized plasmas with candidate materials for fusion reactors, as for example tungsten, is a main topic in fusion research. Many studies simulate the plasma wall interaction using ion beams, while only a few use plasma simulators. Plasma foci can produce dense magnetized plasmas of deuterium and helium among other species. We used the plasma focus Fuego-Nuevo II, to expose tungsten samples to deuterium and helium plasmas. The samples were analysed by means of SEM, RBS and NRA, evidencing surface erosion, surface melting and retention of deuterium in a shallow surface layer of 250 nm amounting 6.5·1016 D/cm2. The plasma temperature has been measured at the position of the samples using a triple Langmuir probe and compared to calculations of a snowplow model. The modelling of the electrode to reach desired plasma parameters is discussed.

  6. Plasma-wall interaction data needs critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-11-01

    The Division of Development and Technology has sponsored a four day US-Japan workshop ''Plasma-Wall Interaction Data Needs Critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)'', held at Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California on June 24 to 27, 1985. The workshop, which brought together fifty scientists and engineers from the United States, Japan, Germany, and Canada, considered the plasma-material interaction and high heat flux (PMI/HHF) issues for the next generation of magnetic fusion energy devices, the Burning Core Experiment (BCX). Materials options were ranked, and a strategy for future PMI/HHF research was formulated. The foundation for international collaboration and coordination of this research was also established. This volume contains the last three of the five technical sessions. The first of the three is on plasma materials interaction issues, the second is on research facilities and the third is from smaller working group meetings on graphite, beryllium, advanced materials and future collaborations.

  7. X-ray spectroscopic study of charge exchange phenomena in plasma-wall interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renner O.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Jets of energetic ions launched at laser-burnt-through foils represent an efficient tool for investigation of plasma interaction with solid surfaces (plasma-wall interaction, PWI and for description of transient phenomena occurring close to the walls. Highly charged ions approaching the secondary target interpenetrate the near surface layer, collide with the counter-propagating matter and capture a large number of electrons. This results in a creation of atoms in highly excited Rydberg states or hollow ions with multiple inner vacancies; plasma jet and target ions may also undergo charge exchange (CE processes. We report PWI experiments with Al/Si(PMMA and Al/C targets irradiated at normal or oblique laser incidence. The distinct dip structures observed in red wings of Al Lyγ self-emission is interpreted in terms of CE between C6+ and Al12+ in the near-wall zone. The spectroscopic identification of CE phenomena is supported by results of analytical and numerical calculations.

  8. Edge and Plasma -Wall Interaction Diagnostics in the TJ-II Stellarator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabares, F. L.; Tafalla, D.; Branas, B.; Hidalgo, A.; Garcia-Cortes, I.; Lopez-Fraguas, A.; Ortiz, P.

    2003-07-01

    The operation of the TJ-II stellarator, carried out under ECR heating conditions until now, the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important , has implieda careful control of partied e sources and the associated plasma-wall interaction processes. A clear coupling between the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important effort has been devoted to the development of dedicated diagnostics in both fields. Remarkable success has been attained in the development of atomic-beam based edge diagnostics, namely, thermal Li and supersonic He beams. In particular, fast (up to 200 Hz) sampling of temperature and density profiles has been made possible thorough an upgraded version of the pulsed, supersonic He beam diagnostic. In this paper, whorl devoted to the upgrading of these techniques is described. Also, preliminary experiments oriented to the validation of the collisional radiative models use din the beam-based diagnostic interpretaron as well as simulations of Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) studies of level populations of electronically excited He atoms are shown. (Author) 17 refs.

  9. NATO Advanced Study Institute entitled Physics of Plasma-Wall Interactions in Controlled Fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Behrisch, R; Physics of plasma-wall interactions in controlled fusion

    1986-01-01

    Controlled thermonuclear fusion is one of the possible candidates for long term energy sources which will be indispensable for our highly technological society. However, the physics and technology of controlled fusion are extremely complex and still require a great deal of research and development before fusion can be a practical energy source. For producing energy via controlled fusion a deuterium-tritium gas has to be heated to temperatures of a few 100 Million °c corres­ ponding to about 10 keV. For net energy gain, this hot plasma has to be confined at a certain density for a certain time One pro­ mising scheme to confine such a plasma is the use of i~tense mag­ netic fields. However, the plasma diffuses out of the confining magnetic surfaces and impinges on the surrounding vessel walls which isolate the plasma from the surrounding air. Because of this plasma wall interaction, particles from the plasma are lost to the walls by implantation and are partially reemitted into the plasma. In addition, wall...

  10. Plasma-Wall Interaction and Electron Temperature Saturation in Hall Thrusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnov, Artem

    2005-10-01

    Existing Hall thruster models predict that secondary electron emission from the channel walls is significant and that the near-wall sheaths are space charge saturated. The plasma-wall interaction and its dependence on the discharge voltage and channel width were studied through the measurements of the electron temperature, plasma potential, and plasma density in a 2 kW Hall thruster [1,2]. The experimental electron-wall collision frequency is computed using the measured plasma parameters. For high discharge voltages, the deduced electron-wall collision frequency is much lower than the theoretical value obtained for the space charge saturated sheath regime, but larger than the wall recombination frequency. The observed electron temperature saturation appears to be directly associated with a decrease of the Joule heating, rather than with the enhancement of the electron energy loss at the walls due to a strong secondary electron emission. The channel width is shown to have a more significant effect on the axial distribution of the plasma potential than the discharge voltage. 1. Y. Raitses, D. Staack, M. Keidar, and N.J. Fisch, Phys. Plasmas 12, 057104 (2005). 2. Y. Raitses, D. Staack, A. Smirnov, and N.J. Fisch, Phys. Plasmas 12, 073507 (2005).

  11. Theory and Numerical Simulation of Plasma-wall Interactions in Electric Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikellides, Ioannis

    2016-10-01

    Electric propulsion (EP) can be an enabling technology for many science missions considered by NASA because it can produce high exhaust velocities, which allow for less propellant mass compared to typical chemical systems. Over the last decade two EP technologies have emerged as primary candidates for several proposed science missions, mainly due to their superior performance and proven record in space flight: the Ion and Hall thrusters. As NASA looks ahead to increasingly ambitious science goals, missions demand higher endurance from the propulsion system. So, by contrast to the early years of development of these thrusters, when the focus was on performance, considerable focus today is shifting towards extending their service life. Considering all potentially life-limiting mechanisms in Ion and Hall thrusters two are of primary concern: (a) the erosion of the acceleration channel in Hall thrusters and (b) the erosion of the hollow cathode. The plasma physics leading to material wear in these devices are uniquely challenging. For example, soon after the propellant is introduced into the hollow cathode it becomes partially ionized as it traverses a region of electron emission. Electron emission involves highly non-linear boundary conditions. Also, the sheath size is typically many times smaller than the characteristic physical scale of the device, yet energy gained by ions through the sheath must be accounted for in the erosion calculations. The plasma-material interactions in Hall thruster channels pose similar challenges that are further exacerbated by the presence of a strong applied magnetic field. In this presentation several complexities associated with plasma-wall interactions in EP will be discussed and numerical simulation results of key plasma properties in two examples, Hall thrusters and hollow cathodes, will be presented.

  12. The in-situ diagnosis of plasma-wall interactions on magnetic fusion devices with accelerators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwig, Zachary

    2013-10-01

    We present the first in-situ, time-resolved measurements of low-Z isotope composition and deuterium retention over a large plasma-facing component (PFC) surface area in a magnetic fusion device. These critical measurements were made using a novel diagnostic technique based on the analysis of induced nuclear reactions from PFC surfaces on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. Achieving an integrated understanding of plasma physics and materials science in magnetic fusion devices is severely hindered by a dearth of in-situ PFC surface diagnosis. Plasma-wall interactions, such as the erosion/redeposition of PFC material, the evolution of PFC surface isotope composition, and fusion fuel retention present significant plasma physics and materials science challenges for long pulse or steady-state devices. Our diagnostic uses a compact (~1 meter), high-current (~1 milliamp) radio-frequency quadrupole accelerator to inject ~1 MeV deuterons into the vacuum vessel. We control the tokamak's magnetic fields - in between plasma shots - to steer the deuterons to PFC surfaces, where they induce high-Q nuclear reactions with low-Z isotopes in the first ~10 microns of material. Analysis of the induced gamma and neutron energy spectra provides quantitative reconstruction of PFC surface conditions. This nondestructive, in-situ technique achieves PFC surface composition measurements with plasma shot-to-shot time resolution and 1 centimeter spatial resolution over large PFC areas. Work supported by U.S. DOE Grant DE-FG02-94ER54235 and Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-99ER54512.

  13. Plasma Wall Interaction Phenomena on Tungsten Armour Materials for Fusion Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uytdenhouwen, I. [SCK.CEN - The Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Institute for Nuclear Materials Science, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, EURATOM-association, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Massaut, V. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Linke, J. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, EURATOM-association, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Van Oost, G. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2008-07-01

    One of the most attractive future complements to present energy sources is nuclear fusion. A large progress was made throughout the last decade from both the physical as the technological area leading to the construction of the ITER machine. One of the key issues that recently received a large interest at international level is focused on the Plasma Wall Interaction (PWI). One of the promising Plasma Facing Materials (PFM) are Tungsten (W) and Tungsten alloys. However, despite the worldwide use and industrial availability of W, the database of physical and mechanical properties is very limited. Especially after fusion relevant neutron irradiation and PWI phenomena, most of the properties are still unknown. The plasma fuel consists out of deuterium (D) and tritium (T). Tritium is radio-active and therefore an issue from the safety point of view. During steady-state plasma operation of future fusion power plants, the PFM need to extract a power density of {approx}10-20 MW/m{sup 2}. On top of this heat, transient events will deposit an additional non-negligible amount of energy (Disruptions, Vertical Displacement Events, Edge Localized Modes) during short durations. These severe heat loads cause cracking and even melting of the surface resulting in a reduced lifetime and the creation of dust. A contribution to the understanding of cracking phenomena under the severe thermal loads is described as well as the properties degradation under neutron irradiation. Several W grades were irradiated in the BR2 reactor (SCK.CEN) and the thermal loads were simulated with the electron-beam facility JUDITH (FZJ). Since knowledge should be gained about the Tritium retention in the PFM for safety and licensing reasons, a unique test facility at SCK.CEN is being set-up. The plasmatron VISION-I will simulate steady state plasmas for Tritium retention studies. The formation of surface cracks and dust, the initial porosity, neutron induced traps, re-deposited material - change the Tritium

  14. Spectral and spatial structure of extreme ultraviolet radiation in laser plasma-wall interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuznetsov, A. S.; Stuik, R.; F. Bijkerk,; Shevelko, A. P.

    2012-01-01

    Intense extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation was observed during the interaction of low-temperature laser plasmas and wall materials. Laser plasmas with electron temperature T-e similar to 40 eV were created on massive solid targets (CF2 and Al) by an excimer KrF laser (248 nm/0.5 J/13 ns/1 Hz). The

  15. Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

    1989-04-01

    The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA—BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Zeff to ~ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance.

  16. Present status of plasma-wall interactions research and materials development activities in the US

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirooka, Y.; Conn, R.W.

    1989-08-01

    It is well known in the fusion engineering community that the plasma confinement performance in magnetic fusion devices is strongly affected by edge-plasma interactions with surface components. These plasma-material interactions (PMI) include fuel particle recycling and impurity generation both during normal and off-normal operation. To understand and then to control PMI effects, considerable effort has been made, particularly over the last decade in US, supported by Department of Energy, Division of Development and Technology. Also, because plasma-facing components are generally expected to receive significant amount of heat due to plasma bombardment and run-away electrons, materials must tolerate high-heat fluxes (HHF). The HHF-component research has been conducted in parallel with PMI research. One strong motivation for these research activities is that DT-burning experiments are currently planned in the Tokamak Test Fusion Reactor (TFTR) in early 1990s. Several different but mutually complementary approaches have been taken in the PMI+HHF research. The first approach is to conduct PMI experiments using toroidal fusion devices such as TFTR. The second one is to simulate elemental processes involved in PMI using ion beams and electron beams, etc. The last one but not least is to use non-tokamak plasma facilities. Along with these laboratory activities, new materials have been developed and evaluated from the PMI+HHF point of view. In this paper, several major PMI+HHF research facilities in US and their activities are briefly reviewed. 21 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Report on the joint meeting of the Division of Development and Technology Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, K.L. (ed.)

    1985-10-01

    This report of the Joint Meeting of the Division of Development and Technology Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups contains contributing papers in the following areas: Plasma/Materials Interaction Program and Technical Assessment, High Heat Flux Materials and Components Program and Technical Assessment, Pumped Limiters, Ignition Devices, Program Planning Activities, Compact High Power Density Reactor Requirements, Steady State Tokamaks, and Tritium Plasma Experiments. All these areas involve the consideration of High Heat Flux on Materials and the Interaction of the Plasma with the First Wall. Many of the Test Facilities are described as well. (LSP)

  18. Plasma-wall interactions data compendium-1. ''Hydrogen retention property, diffusion and recombination coefficients database for selected plasma-facing materials''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwakiri, Hirotomo [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Matsuhiro, Kenjirou [Osaka Univ., Osaka (Japan); Hirooka, Yoshi [National Inst. for Fusion Science, Toki, Gifu (Japan); Yamamura, Yasunori [Okayama Univ. of Scinece, Okayama (Japan)

    2002-05-01

    A summary on the recent activities of the plasma-wall interactions database task group at the National Institute for Fusion Science is presented in this report. These activities are focused on the compilation of literature data on the key parameters related to wall recycling characteristics that affect dynamic particle balance during plasma discharges and also on-site tritium inventory. More specifically, in this task group a universal fitting formula has been proposed and successfully applied to help compile hydrogen implantation-induced retention data. Also, presented here are the data on hydrogen diffusion and surface recombination coefficients, both critical in modeling dynamic wall recycling behavior. Data compilation has been conducted on beryllium, carbon, tungsten and molybdenum, all currently used for plasma-facing components in magnetic fusion experiments. (author)

  19. Modelling of impurity transport and plasma-wall interaction in fusion devices with the ERO code: basics of the code and examples of application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirschner, A.; Borodin, D.; Brezinsek, S.; Linsmeier, C.; Romazanov, J. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Institut fuer Energie- und Klimaforschung - Plasmaphysik, Juelich (Germany); Tskhakaya, D. [Fusion rate at OeAW, Institute of Applied Physics, TU Wien (Austria); Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Innsbruck (Austria); Kawamura, G. [National Institute for Fusion Science, Gifu (Japan); Ding, R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-08-15

    The 3D ERO code, which simulates plasma-wall interaction and impurity transport in magnetically confined fusion-relevant devices is described. As application, prompt deposition of eroded tungsten has been simulated at surfaces with shallow magnetic field of 3 T. Dedicated PIC simulations have been performed to calculate the characteristics of the sheath in front of plasma-exposed surfaces to use as input for these ERO simulations. Prompt deposition of tungsten reaches 100% at the highest electron temperature and density. In comparison to more simplified assumptions for the sheath the amount of prompt deposition is in general smaller if the PIC-calculated sheath is used. Due to friction with the background plasma the impact energy of deposited tungsten can be significantly larger than the energy gained in the sheath potential. (copyright 2016 The Authors. Contributions to Plasma Physics published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA Weinheim. This)

  20. Study of plasma-wall interactions in Tore-supra; Etude des phenomenes d'interaction plasma/paroi dans Tore Supra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggieri, R

    2000-01-01

    In tokamaks the interaction between wall and plasma generates impurities that affect the thermonuclear fusion. This thesis is divided into 2 parts. The first part describes the physico-chemical processes that are involved in chemical erosion, the second part deals with the study of the wear of Tore-supra's walls due to chemical erosion. Chapter 1 presents the wall-plasma interaction and reviews the different processes between plasma and carbon that occur in Tore-supra. Chapter 2 considers the various crystallographic and electronic structures of the carbon that interferes with Tore-supra plasma, the evolution of these structures during irradiation and their temperature dependence are studied. Chapter 3 presents a crystallo-chemical study of graphite samples that have undergone different surface treatments: ionic bombardment, annealing and air exposure. This experimental study has been performed by using energy-loss spectroscopy. It is shown that air exposure modifies the crystallo-chemical structure of surfaces, so it is necessary to prevent air from contaminating wall samples from Tore-supra. Chapter 4 presents a parametric study of chemical erosion rate of plasma facing components (LPM) of Tore-supra. A relation such as Y{sub cd4}{alpha}{gamma}{sup -0.1} gives a good agreement for chemical erosion rate between measurements and the numerical values of the simulation. (A.C.)

  1. Suprathermal electron energy spectrum and nonlocally affected plasma-wall interaction in helium/air micro-plasma at atmospheric pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demidov, V. I.; Adams, S. F.; Miles, J. A.; Koepke, M. E.; Kurlyandskaya, I. P.

    2016-10-01

    Details of ground-state and excited-state neutral atoms and molecules in an atmospheric-pressure micro-discharge plasma may be obtained by plasma electron spectroscopy (PLES), based on a wall probe. The presence and transport of energetic (suprathermal) electrons, having a nonlocal origin, are responsible for electrostatic charging of the plasma boundary surfaces to potentials many times that associated with the ambient electron kinetic energy. The energy-flux distribution function is shown to be controllable for applications involving analysis of composition and processes taking place in a multiphase (plasma-gas-solid), chemically reactive, interaction region.

  2. Plasma-wall-interaction in ECRIS II

    CERN Document Server

    Mannel, C; Wiesemann, K

    1999-01-01

    In an ECR-discharge, where the plasma is confined inside a copper-resonator by a simple magnetic mirror, it could be shown that sputtering of wall material has an important influence upon the plasma [1]. Spectroscopic measurements in ECRIS II with a copper vessel confirmed this model. Evidence for the presence of copper atoms and ions in the plasma could be found by ion extraction as well as with VUV-spectrometry. In a nitrogen discharge by adding helium as a mixing-gas we found that the extracted current of Cu-ions decreased and measured line intensities of copper emission lines dropped down. [1] D. Meyer, "Einfluss der Plasmainstabilitaet auf die Produktion hochgeladener Ionen in einer ECR-Entladung", Dissertation, Bochum, 1997

  3. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  4. AIC and BIC for cosmological interacting scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Arevalo, Fabiola; Moya, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study linear and non-linear cosmological interactions with analytical solutions, which depend on dark matter and dark energy densities in the framework of General Relativity. By using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) with data from SnIa (Union 2.1 and JLA), H(z), BAO and CMB, we compare the interacting models among themselves and analyze whether more complex interacting models are favored by these criteria. In this context, we find some suitable interactions that alleviate the coincidence problem.

  5. Using Interaction Scenarios to Model Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars; Bøgh Andersen, Peter

    The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a set of interaction primitives that can be used to model the dynamics of socio-technical activity systems, including information systems, in a way that emphasizes structural aspects of the interaction that occurs in such systems. The primitives...

  6. AIC and BIC for cosmological interacting scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Arevalo, Fabiola; Cid, Antonella; Moya, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study linear and non-linear cosmological interactions with analytical solutions, which depend on dark matter and dark energy densities in the framework of General Relativity. By using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) with data from SnIa (Union 2.1 and JLA), H(z), BAO and CMB, we compare the interacting models among themselves and analyze whether more complex interacting models are favored by these criteria. In this context, w...

  7. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  8. An Interacting Two-Fluid Scenario for Quintom Dark Energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xin

    2005-01-01

    The Quintom dark energy is a proposal that explains the recent observations that mildly favor the equation of state of dark energy w crossing -1 near the past. The Quintom model is often constructed by two scalar fields, where one is the quintessence field and another is the phantom field. The cosmological implication of the coupling of the two fields of the dark energy is out of question worth investigating. However, the consideration of the coupling in the field scenario is somewhat complex thus we propose an interacting two-fluid Quintom scenario for simplicity. The interaction between the two components is parametrized by a constant η in this scenario. The cosmological implications of this parametrization are investigated in detail in this paper. Also, a diagnostic for this model is performed by using the statefinder pairs {s, r} and {q, r}.

  9. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  10. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  11. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  12. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  13. A new scenario of the universe dynamics with interacting fluids

    CERN Document Server

    Aydiner, Ekrem

    2016-01-01

    In this study, I discuss universe dynamics by considering mutual and self-interactions between fluid components such as dark energy, dark, matter etc, in the the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker space-time. I show that dynamics of the interacting two-fluid with linear EoS can be given by Lotka-Volterra equations. On the other hand, I show that interacting two-fluid model with quadratic EoS can be transformed to the self-interacting Lotka-Volterra equations. Finally I show that these equations can be generalized to $N$ interacting Lotka-Volterra equations for more interacting fluids. Also I find fixed points of these equations and discuss the dynamics of universe. Even though present model needs to be confirmed experimentally, obtained results clearly show that dynamics of universe at large scale and within the time may have stable, unstable or chaotic behaviour in the presence of the interaction and self-interaction in between dark energy, dark matter, matter and others components of the universe unl...

  14. Game theory in communication networks cooperative resolution of interactive networking scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Antoniou, Josephina

    2012-01-01

    A mathematical tool for scientists and researchers who work with computer and communication networks, Game Theory in Communication Networks: Cooperative Resolution of Interactive Networking Scenarios addresses the question of how to promote cooperative behavior in interactive situations between heterogeneous entities in communication networking scenarios. It explores network design and management from a theoretical perspective, using game theory and graph theory to analyze strategic situations and demonstrate profitable behaviors of the cooperative entities. The book promotes the use of Game T

  15. Improving Learning Performance with Happiness by Interactive Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Hung Chuang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, digital learning has attracted a lot of researchers to improve the problems of learning carelessness, low learning ability, lack of concentration, and difficulties in comprehending the logic of math. In this study, a digital learning system based on Kinect somatosensory system is proposed to make children and teenagers happily learn in the course of the games and improve the learning performance. We propose two interactive geometry and puzzle games. The proposed somatosensory games can make learners feel curious and raise their motivation to find solutions for boring problems via abundant physical expressions and interactive operations. The players are asked to select particular operation by gestures and physical expressions within a certain time. By doing so, the learners can feel the fun of game playing and train their logic ability before they are aware. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed somatosensory system can effectively improve the students’ learning performance.

  16. Deflected anomaly mediated SUSY breaking scenario with general messenger–matter interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We propose to introduce general messenger–matter interactions in the deflected anomaly mediated SUSY breaking scenario. The most general form for the resulting soft parameters is derived. New interference terms between the GMSB type and AMSB type contributions are the unique feature of this scenario. Messenger–matter interactions involving sleptons can be used to solve the tachyonic slepton problem and naturally lead to positive slepton masses regardless of the sign of deflection parameter. Besides, due to the new contributions, large |At| that will not trigger color-breaking stop VEV are also possible in this scenario, thus can easily give the 125 GeV higgs which was discovered by LHC. This type of deflected AMSB scenario need very few messenger species, thus can avoid possible non-perturbative gauge couplings below the GUT scale (or Landau pole below the Planck scale.

  17. Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Kok, K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources

  18. Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Kok, K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources

  19. The Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS): a Tool to Suppport the Dialogue between Science and Policy on Scenario Development; Version 1

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk MM; Janssen MA; MNV

    1997-01-01

    Om lange termijn beleidsopties voor voor klimaatverandering te verkennen is er behoefte aan de ontwikkeling en evaluatie van lange termijn emissie scenario's. Om beleidsrelevant te zijn moet bij de scenario's een onderscheid gemaakt worden tussen wereldregio's op basis van hun ont

  20. An interaction scenario of the galaxy pair NGC 3893/96 (KPG 302): A single passage?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gabbasov, R. F.; Rosado, M. [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico (UNAM), A.P. 70-264,04510 México D.F. (Mexico); Klapp, J., E-mail: ruslan.gabb@gmail.com [Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares, Carretera México-Toluca S/N, La Marquesa, Ocoyoacac, 52750 Estado de México (Mexico)

    2014-05-20

    Using the data obtained previously from Fabry-Perot interferometry, we study the orbital characteristics of the interacting pair of galaxies KPG 302 with the aim to estimate a possible interaction history, the conditions necessary for the spiral arm formation, and initial satellite mass. We found by performing N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of the interaction that a single passage can produce a grand design spiral pattern in less than 1 Gyr. Although we reproduce most of the features with the single passage, the required satellite to host mass ratio should be ∼1:5, which is not confirmed by the dynamical mass estimate made from the measured rotation curve. We conclude that a more realistic interaction scenario would require several passages in order to explain the mass ratio discrepancy.

  1. An interaction scenario of the galaxy pair NGC 3893/96 (KPG 302). A single passage?

    CERN Document Server

    Gabbasov, R F; Klapp, J

    2014-01-01

    Using the data obtained previously from Fabry-Perot interferometry, we study the orbital characteristics of the interacting pair of galaxies KPG 302 with the aim to estimate a possible interaction history, the conditions necessary for the spiral arms formation and initial satellite mass. We found by performing N-body/SPH simulations of the interaction that a single passage can produce a grand design spiral pattern in less than 1 Gyr. Althought we reproduce most of the features with the single passage, the required satellite to host mass ratio should be 1:5, which is not confirmed with the dynamical mass estimate made from the measured rotation curve. We conclude that a more realistic interaction scenario would require several passages in order to explain the mass ratio discrepancy.

  2. Construction of the plasma-wall experiment Magnum-PSI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapp, J.; Koppers, W. R.; van Eck, H. J. N.; van Rooij, G. J.; W. J. Goedheer,; de Groot, B.; Al, R.; Graswinckel, M. F.; van den Berg, M. A.; Kruyt, O.; Smeets, P.; van der Meiden, H. J.; Vijvers, W.; Scholten, J.; van de Pol, M.; Brons, S.; Melissen, W.; Van der Grift, T.; Koch, R.; Schweer, B.; Samm, U.; Philipps, V.; Engeln, R. A. H.; D.C. Schram,; Cardozo, N. J. L.; Kleyn, A. W.

    2010-01-01

    The FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen is constructing Magnum-PSI: a magnetized (3 T), steady-state, large area (80 cm(2)) high-flux (up to 10(24) H+ ions m(-2) s(-1)) plasma generator. Magnum-PSI will be a highly accessible laboratory experiment in which the interaction of magnetized plasm

  3. Construction of the plasma-wall experiment Magnum-PSI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rapp, J.; Koppers, W.R.; van Eck, H.J.N.; van Rooij, G.J.; Goedheer, W.J.; de Groot, B.; Al, R.; Graswinckel, M.F.; van den Berg, M.A.; Kruyt, O.; Smeets, P.; van der Meiden, H.J.; Vijvers, W.; Scholten, J.; van de Pol, M.; Brons, S.; Melissen, W.; van der Grift, T.; Koch, R.; Schweer, B.; Samm, U.; Philipps, V.; Engeln, R.A.H.; Schram, D.C.; Lopes Cardozo, N.J.; Kleyn, A.W.

    2010-01-01

    The FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen is constructing Magnum-PSI; a magnetized (3 T), steady-state, large area (80 cm2) high-flux (up to 1024 H+ ions m−2 s−1) plasma generator. Magnum-PSI will be a highly accessible laboratory experiment in which the interaction of magnetized plasma with d

  4. Binary interactions as a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Dengkai; Li, Lifang

    2014-01-01

    Observations revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs) that exhibit wide abundance variations and multiple sequences in Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We present a scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs. In this scenario, initial GCs are single-generation clusters, and our model predicts that the abundance anomalous stars observed in GCs are the merged stars and the accretor stars produced by binary interactions, which are rapidly rotating stars at the moment of their formation and are more massive than normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. We find that due to their own evolution, these rapidly rotating stars have different surface abundances, effective temperatures and luminosities from normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. The stellar population with binaries can reproduce two important observational evidences of multiple stellar populations, the Na-O anticorrelation and the multiple sequences in HR diagram. Thi...

  5. Diphoton signal via Chern-Simons interaction in a warped geometry scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakrabarty, Nabarun; Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2017-01-01

    The Kalb-Ramond field, identifiable with bulk torsion in a five-dimensional Randall Sundrum (RS) scenario, has Chern-Simons interactions with gauge bosons, from the requirement of gauge anomaly cancellation. Its lowest Kaluza Klein (KK) mode on the visible 3-brane can be identified with a spin-0 C P -odd field, namely, the axion. By virtue of the warped geometry and Chern-Simons couplings, this axion has unsuppressed interactions with gauge bosons in contrast to ultra-suppressed interactions with fermions. The ensuing dynamics can lead to a peak in the diphoton spectrum, which could be observed at the LHC, subject to the prominence of the signal. Moreover, the results can be numerically justified when the warp factor is precisely in the range required for stabilization of the electroweak scale.

  6. Using "human state aware" robots to enhance physical human-robot interaction in a cooperative scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, Carlos Rodriguez; Fraile Marinero, Juan Carlos; Turiel, Javier Perez; Muñoz, Victor

    2013-11-01

    Human motor performance, speed and variability are highly susceptible to emotional states. This paper reviews the impact of the emotions on the motor control performance, and studies the possibility of improving the perceived skill/challenge relation on a multimodal neural rehabilitation scenario, by means of a biocybernetic controller that modulates the assistance provided by a haptic controlled robot in reaction to undesirable physical and mental states. Results from psychophysiological, performance and self assessment data for closed loop experiments in contrast with their open loop counterparts, suggest that the proposed method had a positive impact on the overall challenge/skill relation leading to an enhanced physical human-robot interaction experience.

  7. Modelling moose–forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJager, Nathan R.; Rohweder, Jason; Miranda, Brian R.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Fox, Timothy J.; Romanski, Mark C.

    2017-01-01

    Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented

  8. Diphoton excess via Chern-Simons interaction in a warped geometry scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Chakrabarty, Nabarun; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2016-01-01

    We offer an explanation of the recently observed 750 GeV diphoton peak at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in terms of an axion related to the 5-dimensional Kalb-Ramond (KR) field in a Randall-Sundrum warped geometry scenario. The KR field, identifiable with bulk torsion, has Chern-Simons interactions with gauge boson pairs. These in turn yield unsuppressed coupling of the torsion to gluon as well as photon pairs in (3+1) dimensions, while the warped geometry enforces ultra-suppressed interaction with fermion pairs . We show that the observed results can be numerically justified when the warp factor is precisely in the range required for stabilisation of the electroweak scale.

  9. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1997-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  10. RAPID: real-time analytics platform for interactive data-mining in a decision support scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanni, Michelle; Kase, Sue E.; Karunasekara, Shanika; Falzon, Lucia; Harwood, Aaron

    2017-05-01

    Real-time Analytics Platform for Interactive Data-mining (RAPID), a collaboration of University of Melbourne and Australia's Defense Science and Technology Group (DSTG), consumes data streams, performs analytics computations, and produces high-quality knowledge for analysts. RAPID takes topic seed words and autonomously identifies emerging keywords in the data. Users direct the system, setting time-windowing parameters, thresholds, update intervals and sample rates. Apache Storm and Apache Kafka permit real-time streaming while logging options support off-line processing. Decision-support scenarios feature Commander Critical Information Requirements involving comparisons over time and time-sequencing of events, capabilities particularly well-served by RAPID technology, to be demonstrated in the presentation.

  11. Hyporheic interactions under a hydropeaking scenario: a multi-scale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas-Mulet, R.; Alfredsen, K.

    2012-04-01

    Sudden flow changes caused by hydropeaking are likely to become more frequent with increasing demand for renewable energy. These sudden fluctuations affect both the surface and subsurface flow regime and change the hydrological interaction patterns occurring in the hyporheic zone. The hyporheos plays an important role in freshwater ecology, especially for early stages of salmon embryo development. Hydrological hyporheic interactions and associated larger scale hydrological processes have hardly been investigated in a hydropeaking scenario. The works presented aim (i) to investigate detailed hydrological processes occurring in the hyporheic zone at the micro-scale during hydropeaking; (ii) to upscale the findings at the meso-scale by repeating the same detailed experiments in differentiated morphologies; and (iii) to use the outputs for establishing more environmentally sound hydropower operations at the catchment scale. An experimental set-up was started in December 2011 in the river Lundesokna (central Norway). A total of 14 pipes were buried at several depths (from 20 to 70 cm) across and along a 5 x 20 m side bar subject to regular drying out and dewatering due to hydropeaking operations. Water pressure sensors were placed in the pipes to monitor the hyporheic water level and flow with 1-2 minutes time resolution. In addition, temperature, conductivity and dissolved oxygen are collected at the same site for an expected period of 3 months, coinciding with early stages of salmonid egg development in this catchment. Results to date show sudden and high groundwater dominated inflow as a consequence of the quick surface water drop during dewatering episodes. But slow reaction spots where surface water remains for longer periods in form of water pockets has been observed. Such processes have the potential to influence the survival of salmon eggs at both smaller and larger scales.

  12. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  13. Issues Arising from Plasma-Wall Interactions in Inner-Class Tokamaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wampler, William R.

    1999-06-23

    This section reviews physical processes involved in the implantation of energetic hydrogen into plasma facing materials and its subsequent diffusion, release, or immobilization by trapping or precipitation within the material. These topics have also been discussed in previous reviews. The term hydrogen or H is used here generically to refer to protium, deuterium or tritium.

  14. Scientific report. Plasma-wall interaction studies related to fusion reactor materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Temmerman, G. De

    2006-07-01

    This scientific report summarises research done on erosion and deposition mechanisms affecting the optical reflectivity of potential materials for use in the mirrors used in fusion reactors. Work done in Juelich, Germany, at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland, the JET laboratory in England and in Basle is discussed. Various tests made with the mirrors are described. Results obtained are presented in graphical and tabular form and commented on. The influence of various material choices on erosion and deposition mechanisms is discussed.

  15. Edge and divertor plasma: detachment, stability, and plasma-wall interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasheninnikov, S. I.; Kukushkin, A. S.; Lee, Wonjae; Phsenov, A. A.; Smirnov, R. D.; Smolyakov, A. I.; Stepanenko, A. A.; Zhang, Yanzeng

    2017-10-01

    The paper presents an overview of the results of studies on a wide range of the edge plasma related issues. The rollover of the plasma flux to the target during progressing detachment process is shown to be caused by the increase of the impurity radiation loss and volumetric plasma recombination, whereas the ion-neutral friction, although important for establishing the necessary edge plasma conditions, does not contribute per se to the rollover of the plasma flux to the target. The processes limiting the power loss by impurity radiation are discussed and a simple estimate of this limit is obtained. Different mechanisms of meso-scale thermal instabilities driven by impurity radiation and resulting in self-sustained oscillations in the edge plasma are identified. An impact of sheared magnetic field on the dynamics of the blobs and ELM filaments playing an important role in the edge and SOL plasma transport is discussed. Trapping of He, which is an intrinsic impurity for the fusion plasmas, in the plasma-facing tungsten material is considered. A newly developed model, accounting for the generation of additional He traps caused by He bubble growth, fits all the available experimental data on the layer of nano-bubbles observed in W under irradiation by low energy He plasma.

  16. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  17. New scenarios for hard-core interactions in a hadron resonance gas

    CERN Document Server

    Satarov, L M; Alba, P; Gorenstein, M I; Stoecker, H

    2016-01-01

    The equation of state of a baryon-symmetric hadronic matter with hard-sphere interactions is studied. It is assumed that mesons are point-like, but baryons and antibaryons have the same hard-core radius rB. Three possibilities are considered: 1) the baryon-baryon and antibaryon-baryon interactions are the same; 2) baryons do not interact with antibaryons; 3) the baryon-antibaryon and meson-(anti)baryon interactions are negligible. By choosing the parameter rB=0.3-0.6 fm, we calculate the nucleon to pion ratio as a function of temperature and perform the fit of hadron yields measured in central Pb+Pb collisions at the bombarding energy Ecm=2.76 TeV per nucleon pair. New nontrivial effects in the interacting hadron resonance gas at temperatures 150-200 MeV are found.

  18. Quantum-gravity-induced matter self-interactions in the asymptotic-safety scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Eichhorn, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the high-energy properties of matter theories coupled to quantum gravity. Specifically, we show that quantum gravity fluctuations generically induce matter self-interactions in a scalar theory. Our calculations apply within asymptotically safe quantum gravity, where our results indicate that the UV is dominated by an interacting fixed point, with non-vanishing gravitational as well as matter couplings. We show that the number of relevant directions of the fixed point depends on the inclusion of these quantum-gravity induced matter self-interactions. Furthermore we point out that terms of this type can have observable consequences in the context of scalar-field driven inflation, where they can induce potentially observable non-Gaussianities in the CMB.

  19. Isotropic extragalactic flux from dark matter annihilations: lessons from interacting dark matter scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Moliné, Ángeles; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Boehm, Celine; Baugh, Carlton M

    2016-01-01

    The extragalactic gamma-ray and neutrino emission may have a contribution from dark matter (DM) annihilations. In the case of discrepancies between observations and standard predictions, one could infer the DM pair annihilation cross section into cosmic rays by studying the shape of the energy spectrum. So far all analyses of the extragalactic DM signal have assumed the standard cosmological model (LambdaCDM) as the underlying theory. However, there are alternative DM scenarios where the number of low-mass objects is significantly suppressed. Therefore the characteristics of the gamma-ray and neutrino emission in these models may differ from LambdaCDM as a result. Here we show that the extragalactic isotropic signal in these alternative models has a similar energy dependence to that in LambdaCDM, but the overall normalisation is reduced. The similarities between the energy spectra combined with the flux suppression could lead one to misinterpret possible evidence for models beyond LambdaCDM as being due to CD...

  20. Isotropic extragalactic flux from dark matter annihilations: lessons from interacting dark matter scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moliné, Ángeles; Schewtschenko, Jascha A.; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Bœhm, Céline; Baugh, Carlton M.

    2016-08-01

    The extragalactic γ-ray and neutrino emission may have a contribution from dark matter (DM) annihilations. In the case of discrepancies between observations and standard predictions, one could infer the DM pair annihilation cross section into cosmic rays by studying the shape of the energy spectrum. So far all analyses of the extragalactic DM signal have assumed the standard cosmological model (ΛCDM) as the underlying theory. However, there are alternative DM scenarios where the number of low-mass objects is significantly suppressed. Therefore the characteristics of the γ-ray and neutrino emission in these models may differ from ΛCDM as a result. Here we show that the extragalactic isotropic signal in these alternative models has a similar energy dependence to that in ΛCDM, but the overall normalisation is reduced. The similarities between the energy spectra combined with the flux suppression could lead one to misinterpret possible evidence for models beyond ΛCDM as being due to CDM particles annihilating with a much weaker cross section than expected.

  1. Modelling moose—forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan R. De Jager; Jason J. Rohweder; Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Timothy J. Fox; Mark C. Romanski

    2017-01-01

    Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic...

  2. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  3. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  4. Constraining a dark matter and dark energy interaction scenario with a dynamical equation of state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weiqiang; Banerjee, Narayan; Pan, Supriya

    2017-06-01

    In this work we have used the recent cosmic chronometer data along with the latest estimation of the local Hubble parameter value, H0 at 2.4% precision as well as the standard dark energy probes, such as the Supernovae Type Ia, baryon acoustic oscillation distance measurements, and cosmic microwave background measurements (PlanckTT+ lowP ) to constrain a dark energy model where the dark energy is allowed to interact with the dark matter. A general equation of state of dark energy parametrized by a dimensionless parameter "β " is utilized. From our analysis, we find that the interaction is compatible with zero within the 1 σ confidence limit. We also show that the same evolution history can be reproduced by a small pressure of the dark matter.

  5. An Interacting Two-Fluid Scenario for Dark Energy in an FRW Universe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hassan Amirhashchi; Anirudh Pradhan; Bijan Saha

    2011-01-01

    We study the evolution of the dark energy parameter within the scope of a spatially homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann-Robertson-Walker(FRW) model filled with barotropic fluid and dark energy. To obtain the deterministic solution we choose the scale factor a(t)=(√tet),which yields a time-dependent deceleration parameter (DP). In doing so, we consider the case minimally coupled with dark energy to the perfect fluid as well as direct interaction with it.

  6. Interaction between the H II region and AFGL 333-Ridge: Implications for the star formation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Makoto; Soejima, Takashi; Chibueze, James O.; Nagayama, Takumi; Omodaka, Toshihiro; Handa, Toshihiro; Sunada, Kazuyoshi; Kamezaki, Tatsuya; Burns, Ross A.

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the star formation activities in the AFGL 333 region, which is in the vicinity of the W 4 expanding bubble, by conducting NH3 (1,1), (2,2), and (3,3) mapping observations with the 45 m Nobeyama Radio Telescope an angular resolution of 75″. The morphology of the NH3 (1,1) map shows a bow-shaped structure with the size of 2.0 × 0.6 pc as seen in the dust continuum. At the interface between the W 4 bubble and the dense NH3 cloud, the compact H II region G134.2+0.8, associated with IRAS 02245+6115, is located. Interestingly, just at the north and south of G134.2+0.8 we found NH3 emission exhibiting large velocity widths of ˜2.8 km s-1, compared to 1.8 km s-1 at the other positions. As the possibility of mechanical energy injection through the activity of young stellar objects (YSOs) is low, we considered the origin of the large turbulent gas motion as an indication of interaction between the compact H II region and the periphery of the dense molecular cloud. We also found expanding motion of the CO emission associated with G134.2+0.8. The overall structure of the AFGL 333-Ridge might have been formed by the expanding bubble of W 4. However, the small velocity widths observed to the west of IRAS 02245+6115, around the center of the dense molecular cloud, suggest that interaction with the compact H II region is limited. Therefore the YSOs (dominantly Class 0/I) in the core of the AFGL 333-Ridge dense molecular cloud most likely formed in quiescent mode. As previously suggested for the large-scale star formation in the W 3 giant molecular cloud, our results show an apparent coexistence of induced and quiescent star formations in this region. It appears that star formation in the AFGL 333 region has proceeded without significant external triggers, but accompanying stellar feedback environment.

  7. Interaction Between HII Region and AFGL333-Ridge: Implications to the Star Formation Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Nakano, Makoto; Chibueze, James O; Nagayama, Takumi; Omodaka, Toshihiro; Handa, Toshihiro; Sunada, Kazuyuki; Kamezaki, Tatsuya; Burns, Ross A

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the star formation activities in the AFGL333 region, which is in the vicinity of the W4 expanding bubble, by conducting NH3 (1,1), (2,2), and (3,3) mapping observations with the 45 m Nobeyama Radio Telescope at an angular resolution of 75". The morphology of the NH3 (1,1) map shows a bow-shape structure with the size of 2.0 x 0.6 pc as seen in the dust continuum. At the interface between the W4 bubble and the dense NH3 cloud, the compact HII region G134.2+0.8, associated with IRAS02245+6115, is located. Interestingly, just north and south of G134.2+0.8 we found NH3 emission exhibiting large velocity widths of ~ 2.8 km/s, compared to 1.8 km/s at the other positions. As the possibility of mechanical energy injection through the activity of YSO(s) is low, we considered the origin of the large turbulent gas motion as indication of interaction between the compact HII region and the periphery of the dense molecular cloud. We also found expanding motion of the CO emission associated with G134.2+0.8. ...

  8. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding.

  9. CoFoLaMo: Comparing forest landscape model simulations under different climate, interaction- and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lischke, Heike; Speich, Matthias; Schmatz, Dirk; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Mairota, Paola; Leronni, Vincenzo; Schuler, Laura; Bugmann, Harald; Bruna, Josef; Thom, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert; Reineking, Björn

    2016-04-01

    Forests play an important role in the global climate system, and are themselves strongly affected by the changing climate. Forest dynamics do not only act at the stand scale, but are also influenced by larger scale drivers, such as landscape management, and by spatial interactions, such as fire spread or seed dispersal. Forest landscape models run on areas larger than a stand and interact spatially and thus are capable of taking into account these effects. We present the setup of the forest landscape model intercomparison CoFoLaMo (which is based on the setup of the ISI-MIP forest stand model comparison), where we examine several forest landscape models- LandClim, ForHyCS, TreeMig, LANDIS II and iLand - in terms of their usefulness for different kinds of applications. We compare the models with respect to their general approach, scales, resolution, and data requirements, processes, interactions, drivers, disturbances, outputs, and uncertainties. We run simulations in different test regions across temperate Europe, e.g., in the northern(Davos)and southern Alps (Valle d'Aosta), the Bavarian Forest and southern Italy (Puglia). Climate drivers (mostly daily T and P) are downscaled to 100 m resolution in the respective regions. For spinup and model testing we use past observed climate, extrapolated back to 1600 AD, for future simulations a set of different RCPs of different model chains from the ISI-MIP community. For model testing we use appropriate spatial forest data available for each region, ranging from NFI data, terrestrial vegetation type maps, or remote sensing derived forest types and high resolution canopy height. To address the landscape aspect of the models, we compare them in different scenarios of spatially interacting disturbances, spatial interactions by seed dispersal and land use.

  10. Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy E Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. Methods: The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012 and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Results: Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Conclusions: Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions. Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship′s educational platform.

  11. Simulating Interactive Learning Scenarios with Intelligent Pedagogical Agents in a Virtual World through BDI-Based Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Soliman

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Intelligent Pedagogical Agents (IPAs are designed for pedagogical purposes to support learning in 3D virtual learning environments. Several benefits of IPAs have been found adding to support learning effectiveness. Pedagogical agents can be thought of as a central point of interaction between the learner and the learning environment. And hence, the intelligent behavior and functional richness of pedagogical agents have the potential to reward back into increased engagement and learning effectiveness. However, the realization of those agents remains to be a challenge based on intelligent agents in virtual worlds. This paper reports the challenging reasons and most importantly an approach for simplification. A simulation based on BDI agents is introduced opening the road for several extensions and experimentation before implementation of IPAs in a virtual world can take place. The simulation provides a proof-of concept based on three intelligent agents to represent an IPA, a learner, and learning object implemented in JACK and Jadex intelligent agent platforms. To that end, the paper exhibits the difficulties, resolutions, and decisions made when designing and implementing the learning scenario in both domains of the virtual world and the agent-based simulation while comparing the two agent platforms.

  12. Views from Within a Narrative: Evaluating Long-Term Human-Robot Interaction in a Naturalistic Environment Using Open-Ended Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syrdal, Dag Sverre; Dautenhahn, Kerstin; Koay, Kheng Lee; Ho, Wan Ching

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the prototyping of human-robot interactions in the University of Hertfordshire (UH) Robot House. Twelve participants took part in a long-term study in which they interacted with robots in the UH Robot House once a week for a period of 10 weeks. A prototyping method using the narrative framing technique allowed participants to engage with the robots in episodic interactions that were framed using narrative to convey the impression of a continuous long-term interaction. The goal was to examine how participants responded to the scenarios and the robots as well as specific robot behaviours, such as agent migration and expressive behaviours. Evaluation of the robots and the scenarios were elicited using several measures, including the standardised System Usability Scale, an ad hoc Scenario Acceptance Scale, as well as single-item Likert scales, open-ended questionnaire items and a debriefing interview. Results suggest that participants felt that the use of this prototyping technique allowed them insight into the use of the robot, and that they accepted the use of the robot within the scenario.

  13. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  14. The target for the new plasma/wall experiment Magnum-PSI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, M.A. van den, E-mail: m.a.vandenberg@rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, P.O. Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Brons, S.; Kruijt, O.G.; Scholten, J.; Pasquet, R.; Smeets, P.H.M. [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, P.O. Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Schweer, B. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, IEF-4, Euratom association, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, 52425 Juelich (Germany); De Temmerman, G. [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Trilateral Euregio Cluster, P.O. Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    The construction of Magnum-PSI is in its final stage. The aim is to provide a controlled and highly accessible linear plasma device to perform the basic plasma-surface interaction research needed for the design of the plasma facing components of future fusion devices. This contribution will focus on the thermal challenges imposed by those extreme conditions on the design of the target holder of Magnum-PSI. The target holder is designed to allow the exposure of large size targets with variable inclination angles with respect to the magnetic field. A test set up was made to test different interlayers (grafoil, soft metal sheets) and improve the thermal contact between the target and the heat sink. In addition, a modular target holder for sequential exposure of smaller size targets has been designed. Finite element modeling using the ANSYS code was used to optimize the cooling geometry and to predict the temperature profiles due to the heat load of the plasma. Experiments were done on the Pilot-PSI linear device to validate the thermal calculations. Calorimetry and infrared thermography were used to experimentally measure the temperature profile on the target and the heat deposition.

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. High current and low q{sub 95} scenario studies for FAST in the view of ITER and DEMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calabrò, G., E-mail: giuseppe.calabro@enea.it [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.P. 65-I-00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.P. 65-I-00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); Mantica, P.; Baiocchi, B. [Istituto di Fisica del Plasma ‘P.Caldirola’, Associazione Euratom-ENEA-CNR, Milano (Italy); Cucchiaro, A.; Frosi, P.; Fusco, V. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.P. 65-I-00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); Liu, Y. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Mastrostefano, S.; Villone, F. [Associazione EURATOM/ENEA/CREATE, DIEI, Università di Cassino e del Lazio Meridionale (Italy); Vlad, G. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA sulla Fusione, C.P. 65-I-00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); Fresa, R. [Associazione Euratom-ENEA-CREATE, DIFA-Univ. della Basilicata, Via dell’Ateneo Lucano, 10 I-85100 Potenza (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    The Fusion Advanced Study Torus (FAST) has been proposed as a possible European satellite, in view of ITER and DEMO, in order to: (a) explore plasma wall interaction in reactor relevant conditions, (b) test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation up to the border of stability, and (c) address fusion plasmas with a significant population of fast particles. A new FAST scenario has been designed focusing on low-q operation, at plasma current I{sub P} = 10 MA, toroidal field B{sub T} = 8.5 T, with a q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3 that would correspond to I{sub P} ≈ 20 MA in ITER. The flat-top of the discharge can last a couple of seconds (i.e. half the diffusive resistive time and twice the energy confinement time), and is limited by the heating of the toroidal field coils. A preliminary evaluation of the end-of-pulse temperatures and of the electromagnetic forces acting on the central solenoid pack and poloidal field coils has been performed. Moreover, a VDE plasma disruption has been simulated and the maximum total vertical force applied on the vacuum vessel has been estimated.

  17. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  18. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  19. Controlled electron bunch generation in the few-cycle ultra-intense laser–solid interaction scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kluge, T., E-mail: t.kluge@hzdr.de; Bussmann, M.; Cowan, T.E.; Schramm, U.

    2016-09-01

    The generation of Maxwellian or exponentially decaying spectra in the interaction of ultra-intense ultra-short laser pulses with solid foils is very general observation both in experiments and simulations. Yet, the physical origin of this observation is not well understood. For a very idealized situation of plane wave, plane and cold target interaction, we show that both randomization between individual electron bunches accelerated by the laser through the plasma as well as randomization during a single bunch are not observable in particle-in-cell simulations. Hence they are not accountable for the apparent thermalization (exponential spectrum).

  20. Pedagogy and Interactive White Board Technology Integration in Higher Education Institutions: Computer-Based Teaching Scenario Protoypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Qirim, Nabeel; Mesmari, Ahlam; Mazroeei, Khawlah; Khatri, Shamma; Kaabi, Zuwainah

    2017-01-01

    This research is part of a research trilogy that investigated issues impacting Interactive White Board Technology (IWBT) adoption and use in a higher education institution. The other two research studies in this trilogy used (1) focus group approach and (2) survey research to identify such impacting factors. One major insight from these two…

  1. Pedagogy and Interactive White Board Technology Integration in Higher Education Institutions: Computer-Based Teaching Scenario Protoypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Qirim, Nabeel; Mesmari, Ahlam; Mazroeei, Khawlah; Khatri, Shamma; Kaabi, Zuwainah

    2017-01-01

    This research is part of a research trilogy that investigated issues impacting Interactive White Board Technology (IWBT) adoption and use in a higher education institution. The other two research studies in this trilogy used (1) focus group approach and (2) survey research to identify such impacting factors. One major insight from these two…

  2. Climatic controls on biophysical interactions in the Black Sea under present day conditions and a potential future (A1B) climate scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Fach, Bettina A.; Arkin, Sinan S.; Salihoglu, Baris

    2015-01-01

    A dynamical downscaling approach has been applied to investigate climatic controls on biophysical interactions and lower trophic level dynamics in the Black Sea. Simulations were performed under present day conditions (1980-1999) and a potential future (2080-2099) climate scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simulations project a 3.7 °C increase in SST, a 25% increase in the stability of the seasonal thermocline and a 37 day increase in the duration of seasonal stratification. Increased winter temperatures inhibited the formation of Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) waters resulting in near complete erosion of the CIL, with implications for the ventilation of intermediate water masses and the subduction of riverine nutrients. A 4% increase in nitrate availability within the upper 30 m of the water column reflected an increase in the retention time of river water within the surface mixed-layer. Changes in thermohaline structure, combined with a 27% reduction in positive wind stress curl, forced a distinct change in the structure of the basin-scale circulation. The predominantly cyclonic circulation characteristic of contemporary conditions was reversed within the southern and eastern regions of the basin, where under A1B climatic conditions, anticyclonic circulation prevailed. The change in circulation structure significantly altered the horizontal advection and dispersion of high nutrient river waters originating on the NW self. Net primary production increased by 5% on average, with much spatial variability in the response, linked to advective processes. Phytoplankton biomass also increased by 5% and the higher nutrient environment of the future scenario caused a shift in species composition in favour of larger phytoplankton. No significant change in zooplankton biomass was projected. These results constitute one of many possible future scenarios for the Black Sea, being dependent on the modelling

  3. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  4. 人机交互中的场景开发%Scenarios Development in Human-Computer Interaction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张向波; 邢朝伟

    2003-01-01

    场景是人机交互HCI(Human-Computer Interaction)中的重要技术.文章针对交互系统设计中通常存在的问题,比较深入地分析了基于模型的人机交互过程,对任务分析中场景的作用、应用、包含内容作了较深入的探讨.结果说明场景开发是交互系统深入研究、成功开发的关键步骤之一.

  5. 近距离3D人机交互技术研究实现%Research and implementation of 3D human computer interactive technology in close scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘川; 邬春学

    2015-01-01

    3D human-computer interaction is an amalgamation of computer graphics, virtual reality and pattern recognition, which consists of virtual environment and 3D object recognition. A total solution consisting of virtual environment rendering and 3D object recognition is proposed and applied in the close human-computer interaction scenes, which simulate virtual scenario with the ratio of 1∶1. The research analyses the transformation between virtual environment and reality; three main factors which have influence on stereo display of virtual object have been explored, which include the camera angle, the distance between two cameras in OpenGL and the stereo image pairs generation;3D object recognition is implemented on Intel Perceptual Computing. Experiments show that the solution has excellent 3D effect in simulation virtual scenario with 1∶1 ratio and high gesture recognition rate.%3D人机交互技术是计算机图形学、虚拟现实和模式识别的交叉融合领域,可分为虚拟环境的显示和三维物体识别。该研究将虚拟环境显示和三维物体识别整合成一个完整的解决方案并应用到1∶1模拟虚拟场景的近距离交互。研究了虚拟现实之间的坐标转换;分析了影响虚拟物体立体显示的三个主要因素:OpenGL中摄像机的张角,摄像机间距和立体图像对的产生;并实现了基于Intel Perceptual Computing的三维物体识别。实验结果显示:该方案在1∶1模拟虚拟场景方面具有良好的3D显示效果,同时在手势识别方面有较高的识别率。

  6. Atomic data for controlled fusion research. Volume III. Particle interactions with surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, E.W.

    1985-02-01

    This report provides a handbook of data concerning particle solid interactions that are relevant to plasma-wall interactions in fusion devices. Published data have been collected, assessed, and represented by a single functional relationship which is presented in both tabular and graphical form. Mechanisms reviewed here include sputtering, secondary electron emission, particle reflection, and trapping.

  7. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  8. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  9. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  10. Plasma-wall interactions data compendium-2. ''Hydrogen retention property, diffusion and recombination coefficients database for selected plasma-facing materials''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuhiro, Kenjirou [Osaka Univ., Osaka (Japan); Iwakiri, Hirotomo [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Hirooka, Yoshi [National Inst. for Fusion Science, Toki, Gifu (Japan); Yamamura, Yasunori [Okayama Univ. of Scinece, Okayama (Japan); Morita, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

    2002-08-01

    This report will present additional data to those included in the previous report of this series. These new data are on the hydrogen (deuterium) trapping properties of graphite materials. The units on the data on hydrogen (deuterium) diffusion and surface recombination coefficients have been updated to adopt the SI unit system. Also, the graphic representations of previously compiled data on hydrogen (deuterium) retention have been improved for better understanding. For the sake of completeness, this report will present all these data in the improved format. (author)

  11. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  12. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  13. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  14. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  15. Alfven mode stability and wave-particle interaction in the JET tokamak: prospects for scenario development and control schemes in burning plasma experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Testa, D [CRPP, Association EURATOM-Confederation Suisse, EPFL, Lausanne (Switzerland); Fasoli, A [CRPP, Association EURATOM-Confederation Suisse, EPFL, Lausanne (Switzerland); Borba, D [Associacao EURATOM/IST (Portugal); EDFA-CSU, Culham Science Centre (United Kingdom); Baar, M de [FOM-Instituut Voor Plasmafysica, Rijnhuizen (Netherlands); Bigi, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Brzozowski, J [NADA VR-Euratom Association, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); Vries, P de [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom)

    2004-07-01

    We have investigated the effect of different ion cyclotron resonance frequency (ICRF) heating schemes, of error field modes, of the plasma shape and edge magnetic shear, and of the ion {nabla}B drift direction on the stability of Alfven eigenmodes (AEs). The use of multi-frequency or 2nd harmonic minority ICRF heating at high plasma density gives rise to a lower fast ion pressure gradient in the plasma core and to a reduced mode activity in the Alfven frequency range. Externally excited low-amplitude error fields lead to a much larger AE instability threshold, which we attribute to a moderate radial redistribution of the fast ions. The edge plasma shape has a clear stabilizing effect on high-n, radially localized AEs. The damping rate of n = 1 toroidal AEs is a factor 3 higher when the ion {nabla}B drift is directed towards the divertor. These results represent a useful step towards the extrapolation of current scenarios to the inclusion of fusion-born alpha particles in ITER, with possible application for feedback control schemes for the various ITER operating regimes.

  16. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  17. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  18. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  19. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  20. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  1. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  2. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  3. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  4. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  5. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  6. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  7. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  8. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  9. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  10. Automated Scenario Generation and Interaction Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    function. These routines are written in FORTRAN IV and utilize an overlay structure to minimize core requirements. Total resource in core is a result of...Munition Effectiveness Manual (JMEM). 6.8 COSTO SCHEDULE, AND MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS: TALON Accounting estimates in the TALON gaming model are divided

  11. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  12. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  13. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part I. model evaluation for the current decadal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; He, Jian; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    A version of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU) is used to simulate the current and future atmosphere following the representative concentration partway scenarios for stabilization of radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2 (RCP4.5) and radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2 (RCP8.5). Part I describes the results from a comprehensive evaluation of current decadal simulations. Radiation and most meteorological variables are well simulated in CESM-NCSU. Cloud parameters are not as well simulated due in part to the tuning of model radiation and general biases in cloud variables common to all global chemistry-climate models. The concentrations of most inorganic aerosol species (i.e., SO42-, NH4+, and NO3-) are well simulated with normalized mean biases (NMBs) typically less than 20%. However, some notable exceptions are European NH4+, which is overpredicted by 33.0-42.2% due to high NH3 emissions and irreversible coarse mode condensation, and Cl-, that is negatively impacted by errors in emissions driven by wind speed and overpredicted HNO3. Carbonaceous aerosols are largely underpredicted following the RCP scenarios due to low emissions of black carbon, organic carbon, and anthropogenic volatile compounds in the RCP inventory and efficient wet removal. This results in underpredictions of PM2.5 and PM10 by 6.4-55.7%. The column mass abundances are reasonably well simulated. Larger biases occur in surface mixing ratios of trace gases in CESM-NCSU, likely due to numerical diffusion from the coarse grid spacing of the CESM-NCSU simulations or errors in the magnitudes and vertical structure of emissions. This is especially true for SO2 and NO2. The mixing ratio of O3 is overpredicted by 38.9-76.0% due to the limitations in the O3 deposition scheme used in CESM and insufficient titration resulted from large underpredictions in NO2. Despite these limitations, CESM-NCSU reproduces reasonably well the current atmosphere in terms of

  14. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  15. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  16. ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barklow, T; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision...

  17. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  18. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  19. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  1. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  2. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  3. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  4. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  5. Visualization in sporting contexts : the team scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Kazmi, Aqeel H.; O'Grady, Michael J; O'Hare, G. M. P. (Greg M. P.)

    2011-01-01

    Wearable sensor systems require an interactive and communicative interface for the user to interpret data in a meaningful way. The development of adaptive personalization features in a visualization tool for such systems can convey a more meaningful picture to the user of the system. In this paper, a visualization tool called Visualization in Team Scenarios (VTS), which can be used by a coach to monitor an athlete’s physiological parameters, is presented. The VTS has been implemented with a w...

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  8. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  9. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  10. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  11. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  12. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...... into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon....

  13. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  14. INTERACT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jochum, Elizabeth; Borggreen, Gunhild; Murphey, TD

    This paper considers the impact of visual art and performance on robotics and human-computer interaction and outlines a research project that combines puppetry and live performance with robotics. Kinesics—communication through movement—is the foundation of many theatre and performance traditions...... interaction between a human operator and an artificial actor or agent. We can apply insights from puppetry to develop culturally-aware robots. Here we describe the development of a robotic marionette theatre wherein robotic controllers assume the role of human puppeteers. The system has been built, tested...

  15. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  16. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  17. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  18. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  19. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  20. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinette Biggs

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.

  1. Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The main theme of this anthology is the unique interaction between mathematics, physics and philosophy during the beginning of the 20th century. Seminal theories of modern physics and new fundamental mathematical structures were discovered or formed in this period. Significant physicists...... such as Lorentz and Einstein as well as mathematicians such as Poincare, Minkowski, Hilbert and Weyl contributed to this development. They created the new physical theories and the mathematical disciplines that play such paramount roles in their mathematical formulations. These physicists and mathematicians were...

  2. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  3. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  4. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  5. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  6. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  7. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  8. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  9. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  10. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    Process plants may be very complex and may combine various processes in close proximity. Hence, the response to accidents may easily grow complex. Traditionally, after gathering and getting acquainted with the plant's technical information, risk is analysed in prescribed steps starting with hazard...... (DES) of the scenarios, which is a Monte Carlo type method. The paper describes the application of DES to conduct the analysis part of a risk assessment that enables better time resolution in the modelling of the specific scenarios, simulate the interactions between concurrent chains of events under...... the hazardous scenarios, and produce probabilistic risk measures. The outcome provides possibilities to structure the results in a comprehensive way. Scenarios with severe consequences can be ‘played back’ to learn from them and can be animated, which apart from the learning effect provides a new way...

  11. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are discussed: the limits to growth (the great tragedy and demise); sustainable development and ecological modernization (hope and innovation); and the Anthrop...

  12. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  13. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  14. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    of constraints restricting the control commands that can be used inside user-defined scenarios. The system is based on timed automata model checking abstracted by event condition action rules. A prototype was implemented, including a user interface to interact with the user. The usability of the system...

  15. Data Input and Content Exploration in Scenarios with Restrictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pedrosa, D.C.

    2014-01-01

    As technology evolves, new devices and interaction techniques are developed. These transformations create several challenges in terms of usability and user experience. Our research faces some challenges for data input or content exploration in scenarios with restrictions. It is not our intention to

  16. Distinguishing new physics scenarios with polarized electron and positron beams

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A A Pankov; N Paver; A V Tsytrinov

    2007-11-01

    Contact-like nonstandard interactions can be revealed only through deviations of observables from the standard model (SM) predictions. We consider a number of such nonstandard scenarios, and discuss their identification as sources of deviations in fermion-pair production processes at the international linear collider (ILC), if they were observed. We emphasize the role of - and + polarization in enhancing the identification reaches.

  17. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-15

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www

  18. Effect of Rashba Spin-Orbit Interaction on the Stability of Spin-Vortex-Induced Loop Current in Hole-Doped Cuprate Superconductors: A Scenario for the Appearance of Magnetic Field Enhanced Charge Order and Fermi Surface Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisaki, Tsubasa; Wakaura, Hikaru; Koizumi, Hiroyasu

    2017-10-01

    Rashba type spin-orbit interaction is included in the model Hamiltonian for the spin-vortex-induced loop current (SVILC) mechanism of superconductivity for hole doped cuprate superconductors and its effects are investigated. We assume that a Rashba interaction appears around the small polarons formed by the doped holes in the bulk; its internal electric field is assumed to be in the direction perpendicular to the CuO2 plane and stabilizes the spin polarization lying in the CuO2 plane. We examine 4 × 4, 4 × 6, and 4 × 8 spin-vortex-quartet (SVQ) and perform Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the superconducting transition temperature Tc, where each SVQ is a n × m two dimensional region (in the units of the lattice constant) containing four holes, four spin-vortices, and four SVILCs. We find that the 4 × 6 SVQ is the most stable one among them with the highest Tc; in this case, the hole concentration per Cu atom is x = 0.167, which is close to the optimal doping value x = 0.170, suggesting that the optimal doping may be related to the stabilization of the superconducting state by the Rashba interaction. We also find that the 4 × 8 SVQ becomes more stable than the 4 × 6 SVQ in a current flowing situation; this indicates that the conversion from the 4 × 6 SVQs to 4 × 8 SVQs may occur upon the emergence of a macroscopic current by the application of a magnetic field. This conversion may explain the enhancement of the charge order around x = 0.125 and the Fermi surface reconstruction upon an application of a magnetic field.

  19. Distributed Function Computation in Asymmetric Communication Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Agnihotri, Samar

    2009-01-01

    We consider the distributed function computation problem in asymmetric communication scenarios, where the sink computes some deterministic function of the data split among N correlated informants. The distributed function computation problem is addressed as a generalization of distributed source coding (DSC) problem. We are mainly interested in minimizing the number of informant bits required, in the worst-case, to allow the sink to exactly compute the function. We provide a constructive solution for this in terms of an interactive communication protocol and prove its optimality. The proposed protocol also allows us to compute the worst-case achievable rate-region for the computation of any function. We define two classes of functions: lossy and lossless. We show that, in general, the lossy functions can be computed at the sink with fewer number of informant bits than the DSC problem, while computation of the lossless functions requires as many informant bits as the DSC problem.

  20. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  1. Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freynet David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

  2. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  4. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  5. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  6. Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao

    This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from...... the system characteristics of environment uncertainties, complex process interactions, quantitative timing constraints, partial observability and combinations thereof. We make timed extensions to live sequence chart (LSC) such that the inter-process behaviors and scenario-based requirements of concurrent...

  7. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  8. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  9. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  10. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  11. The Effect of Social Interaction and Tourism Scenario on Tourism Demand:Empirical Research Based on Spring Festival Golden Week%社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨勇

    2016-01-01

    As a branch of economics, consumer economics is a broad field, principally concerning the microeconomic analysis of behavior in terms of consumers, families, or individuals. Consumer economics sometimes encompasses tourism demand and its influencing factors. However, conventional economic research of tourism demand has shown little interest in analyzing tourism demand based on tourism properties and characteristics—especially from a Chinese cultural perspective. Conventional economic consumer theory is insufficient to explain the phenomenon of tourism demand, whereby tourists obtain utility from social interaction and the tourism scenario. Regarding the influencing factors of consumer tourism demand identified in related academic sources, the most used explanatory variables are the following:tourists’regular income;tourism prices at a destination compared with those at home;tourism prices in competing destinations (i.e., substitute prices);and exchange rates. These factors are also the most important determinants of tourism demand. The explanatory variables included in previous tourism demand models have varied enormously according to the researcher’s objectives and background. In addition to such conventional factors as personal income, prominent variables used to explain consumer tourism demand are related to social interaction and tourism scenario, for example, travel companions, traffic congestion, and type of tourist attraction. In this paper, the theoretical cornerstone is Becker’s social interaction theory. That illustrates how consumers maximize their tourism utility subject to constraints on their social income. In the framework of this paper, we introduce the factors of social interaction and tourism scenario: we emphasize the effect of those two factors on tourism demand. We then provide a number of hypotheses based on theoretical analysis. These hypotheses state that tourism demand falls as the importance of social interaction rises—even when

  12. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    2016-01-01

    Attack-defence trees are a powerful technique for formally evaluating attack-defence scenarios. They represent in an intuitive, graphical way the interaction between an attacker and a defender who compete in order to achieve conflicting objectives. We propose a novel framework for the formal...... analysis of quantitative properties of complex attack-defence scenarios, using an extension of attack-defence trees which models temporal ordering of actions and allows explicit dependencies in the strategies adopted by attackers and defenders. We adopt a game-theoretic approach, translating attack......-defence trees to two-player stochastic games, and then employ probabilistic model checking techniques to formally analyse these models. This provides a means to both verify formally specified security properties of the attack-defence scenarios and, dually, to synthesise strategies for attackers or defenders...

  13. Scenarios for sLHC and vLHC

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles and evolution of the statistical error halving time call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the EU CARE-HHH network, two scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by a factor 10, to 1035 cm−2s−1 (“sLHC”). Both scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges differ substantially. In either scenario luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. Longer-term R&D efforts are devoted to a higher-energy hadron collider (“vLHC”), which could be realized on a green field or as a later and more radical LHC upgrade.

  14. Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao

    This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from....... By linking our prototype translators with existing model checker Uppaal and game solver Uppaal-Tiga, we show that these methods contribute to the interaction correctness and timeliness of early system designs. The thesis also shows that testing a real-time reactive system can be viewed as playing a timed...... communicating real-time systems can be modeled and specified with LSC. By translating LSC to timed automata (TAs), we reduce scenario-based model consistency checking and property verification to CTL real-time model checking problems, and reduce scenario-based synthesis to a timed game solving problem...

  15. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  16. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  17. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  18. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  19. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  20. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation. Furthermore, the survey reveals that the incorporation of provided uncertainty depends on the user type: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of the uncertainty. For the development of new Swiss climate scenarios the survey results on end-user needs are considered as a starting point for further interactions with users. This is accomplished with the establishment of a sounding board accompagning the project throught its time span. Furthermore, explicit stakeholder-dialogues with key users of different sectors will be carried during the project phase.

  1. Scenarios in virtual learning environments for one-to-one communication skills training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lala, R.; Jeuring, J.T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075189771; Dortmont, Jordy~van; van Geest, Marcell

    2017-01-01

    A scenario is a description of a series of interactions between a player and a virtual character for one-to-one communication skills training, where at each step the player is faced with a choice between statements. In this paper, we analyse the characteristics of scenarios and provide a

  2. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  3. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  4. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  5. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  6. Two views on the Bjorken scenario for ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    CERN Multimedia

    Maire, Antonin

    2011-01-01

    The sketch describes the Bjorken scenario foreseen for the collision of ultra-relativistic heavy-ions, leading to the creation of strongly-interacting hot and dense deconfined matter, the so-called Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP).

  7. Scenarios for Teacher Education Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Jennifer C.; Fox, Wanda S.; Lehman, James D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the history of Internet-based videoconferencing (IVC) within the teacher education program at a large Midwestern university. It explains ways this technology has been used to expand interactions with students and professionals in a wide variety of settings and thereby increase depth, diversity, and effectiveness of preservice…

  8. Benefits of Scenario-based Learning in university education

    OpenAIRE

    Elliott-Kingston, Caroline; Doyle, Owen P. E.; Hunter, Alan

    2016-01-01

    As an applied science, horticulture is particularly suited to interactive teaching and learning methods.  Much of the undergraduate learning in horticulture is passive; therefore, more active learning strategies should be introduced. One such active learning technique is scenario-based learning (SBL).  This form of learning allows students to apply academic knowledge to a simulated 'real-life' situation.  It is particularly suited to promoting group participation and learning.  Its use provid...

  9. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nord 2009]. Figure 1 shows the relationship between mission thread scenarios and QA scenarios. Mission thread scenarios contain steps that...Execute Health Severe Immediate Observed Flash Flood "No Special Handling" Actual Assess Meteorological Severe Expected Likely Tsunami "No Special...projects.shtm#6 (2011). CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 | 49 [ Nord 2009] Nord , R.; Bergey, J.; Blanchette, S.; & Klein, M. “The Impact of Conducting ATAM

  10. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  11. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  12. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  13. Visual Environment for Designing Interactive Learning Scenarios with Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, José Miguel; Ruiz-Rube, Iván; Dodero, Juan Manuel; Figueiredo, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    Augmented Reality (AR) technology allows the inclusion of virtual elements on a vision of actual physical environment for the creation of a mixed reality in real time. This kind of technology can be used in educational settings. However, the current AR authoring tools present several drawbacks, such as, the lack of a mechanism for tracking the…

  14. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  15. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  16. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  17. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  18. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  19. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  20. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  1. Scenario-based Participatory Design for Pervasive Computing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zhi-qiang; DING Peng; SHENG Huan-ye

    2007-01-01

    Lots of pervasive computing researchers are working on how to realize the user-centered intelligent pervasive computing environment as Mark Weiser figured out. Task abstraction is the fundamentation of configuration for pervasive application. Based on task-oriented and descriptive properties of scenario, a scenario-based participatory design model was proposed to realize the task abstraction. The design model provided users and domain experts a useful mechanism to build the customized applications by separating system model into domain model and design model. In this design model, domain experts, together with users, stakeholders focus on the logic rules (domain model) and programmers work on the implementation (design model). In order to formalize the model description, a human-agent interaction language to transform users' goals and domain rules into executable scenarios was also discussed. An agent platform - describer used to link design and implementation of scenarios was developed to realize the configuration of applications according to different requirements. The demand bus application showed the design process and the usability of this model.

  2. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  3. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  4. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  5. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  6. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  7. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  8. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  9. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  10. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  11. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  12. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  13. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  14. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  15. Interactive CFD simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Duque Lombana, Juan Fernando

    2007-01-01

    This project is about the development of an implementable Interactive Computer Fluid Dynamics methodology -- The range of this work begins with an overview of the current status of computational fluid dynamics simulation software and methodologies, continues with an introduction to what interactive and interactivity mean, develops an all original interactive CFD methodology to follow for the solution of fluid scenarios and finally, the description of the implementation of an interactive solve...

  16. Hydrodynamical simulations of a compact source scenario for G2

    CERN Document Server

    Ballone, A; Burkert, A; Gillessen, S; Genzel, R; Fritz, T K; Eisenhauer, F; Pfuhl, O; Ott, T

    2013-01-01

    The origin of the dense gas cloud G2 discovered in the Galactic Center (Gillessen et al. 2012) is still a debated puzzle. G2 might be a diffuse cloud or the result of an outflow from an invisible star embedded in it. We present here detailed simulations of the evolution of winds on G2's orbit. We find that the hydrodynamic interaction with the hot atmosphere present in the Galactic Center and the extreme gravitational field of the supermassive black hole must be taken in account when modeling such a source scenario. We find that the hydrodynamic interaction with the hot atmosphere present in the Galactic Center and the extreme gravitational field of the supermassive black hole must be taken in account when modeling such a source scenario. We also find that in this scenario most of the Br\\gamma\\ luminosity is expected to come from the highly filamentary densest shocked wind material. G2's observational properties can be used to constrain the properties of the outflow and our best model has a mass outflow rate ...

  17. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  18. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  19. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particles clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found which depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  20. Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. F. Diniz-Filho

    Full Text Available The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill. Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

  1. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  2. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  3. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  4. Development of REACH Generic Exposure Scenarios for Substances Used as Coformulants in Plant Protection Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobe, Christopher; Bonifay, Sebastien; Fliege, Ralph; Krass, Joachim; Mostert, Volker; Vosswinkel, Renate; Wormuth, Matthias

    2016-07-14

    This article reviews the interactions between the REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and restriction of Chemicals) regulation and the plant protection product regulation for substances used as coformulants in the European Union, and describes generic exposure scenarios developed for their exposure and risk assessment. The REACH exposure scenarios describe the operational conditions and risk management measures used in the risk assessment of a coformulant, and as such these translate as the boundaries of safe use. The generic exposure scenarios are designed to be simple, and closely integrate with REACH use descriptors and customized exposure models. Clustering of application methods and exposure determinants resulted in four generic exposure scenarios, each covering professional workers or consumers, and application of products in liquid, granular form, or applied on seeds. When used in conjunction with appropriate exposure models, the generic exposure scenarios support efficient first-tier risk assessment of coformulants by utilizing a higher level of abstraction and conservatism than typically used in plant protection product assessments.

  5. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  6. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  7. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  8. Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub

    2010-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., & Kurvers, H. J. (2010, 23 March). Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation during a workshop with Sector5, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands; iCoper.

  9. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology...

  10. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed...

  11. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  12. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  13. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  14. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry [MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis (France). Observation, Impacts, Energy Center; Wyrwa, Artur; Drebszok, Kamila [AGH Univ. of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

    2013-07-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM{sub 2.5} concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM{sub 2.5} concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  15. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  16. Isospin violating dark matter in St\\"uckelberg portal scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Martin-Lozano, Victor; Soler, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Hidden sector scenarios in which dark matter (DM) interacts with the Standard Model matter fields through the exchange of massive Z' bosons are well motivated by certain string theory constructions. In this work, we thoroughly study the phenomenological aspects of such scenarios and find that they present a clear and testable consequence for direct DM searches. We show that such string motivated St\\"uckelberg portals naturally lead to isospin violating interactions of DM particles with nuclei. We find that the relations between the DM coupling to neutrons and protons for both, spin-independent (fn/fp) and spin-dependent (an/ap) interactions, are very flexible depending on the charges of the quarks under the extra U(1) gauge groups. We show that within this construction these ratios are generically different from plus and minus 1 (i.e. different couplings to protons and neutrons) leading to a potentially measurable distinction from other popular portals. Finally, we incorporate bounds from searches for dijet a...

  17. Super-Heavy Dark Matter - Towards Predictive Scenarios from Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Kannike, Kristjan; Raidal, Martti

    2016-01-01

    A generic prediction of the Coleman-Weinberg inflation is the existence of a heavy particle sector whose interactions with the inflaton, the lightest state in this sector, generate the inflaton potential at loop level. For typical interactions the heavy sector may contain stable states whose relic abundance is generated at the end of inflation by the gravity alone. This general feature, and the absence of any particle physics signal of dark matter so far, call for a paradigm shift in the dark sector physics. Accordingly, the dark matter is heavier than the inflaton, its existence follows from the inflaton dynamics, and its abundance today is naturally determined by the weakness of gravitational interaction. This implies that the super-heavy dark matter scenarios can be tested via the measurements of inflationary parameters and/or the CMB isocurvature perturbations and non-Gaussianities. We explicitly work out details of three Coleman-Weinberg inflation scenarios, study the systematics of super-heavy dark matt...

  18. Visualizing alternative phosphorus scenarios for future food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina-Simone Neset

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialogue on the technical, behavioral and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real-time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialogue to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1 the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2 the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3 the potential of a decreased animal product consumption, and (4 the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency

  19. Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in

  20. Model independent constraints on mass-varying neutrino scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Franca, Urbano; Lesgourgues, Julien; Pastor, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    Models of dark energy in which neutrinos interact with the scalar field supposed to be responsible for the acceleration of the universe usually imply a variation of the neutrino masses on cosmological time scales. In this work we propose a parameterization for the neutrino mass variation that captures the essentials of those scenarios and allows to constrain them in a model independent way, that is, without resorting to any particular scalar field model. Using WMAP 5yr data combined with the matter power spectrum of SDSS and 2dFGRS, the limit on the present value of the neutrino mass is $m_0 \\equiv m_{\

  1. Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

    2017-05-01

    In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. RNA Denaturation: Excluded Volume, Pseudoknots, and Transition Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiesi, M.; Orlandini, E.; Stella, A. L.

    2003-11-01

    A lattice model of RNA denaturation which fully accounts for the excluded volume effects among nucleotides is proposed. A numerical study shows that interactions forming pseudoknots must be included in order to get a sharp continuous transition. Otherwise a smooth crossover occurs from the swollen linear polymer behavior to highly ramified, almost compact conformations with secondary structures. In the latter scenario, which is appropriate when these structures are much more stable than pseudoknot links, probability distributions for the lengths of both loops and main branches obey scaling with nonclassical exponents.

  3. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  4. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  5. Scenarios for Resilient Shrimp Aquaculture in Tropical Coastal Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon R. Bush

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We contend there are currently two competing scenarios for the sustainable development of shrimp aquaculture in coastal areas of Southeast Asia. First, a landscape approach, where farming techniques for small-scale producers are integrated into intertidal areas in a way that the ecological functions of mangroves are maintained and shrimp farming diseases are controlled. Second, a closed system approach, where problems of disease and effluent are eliminated in closed recirculation ponds behind the intertidal zone controlled by industrial-scale producers. We use these scenarios as two ends of a spectrum of possible interactions at a range of scales between the ecological, social, and political dynamics that underlie the threat to the resilience of mangrove forested coastal ecosystems. We discuss how the analytical concepts of resilience, uncertainty, risk, and the organizing heuristic of scale can assist us to understand decision making over shrimp production, and in doing so, explore their use in the empirical research areas of coastal ecology, shrimp health management and epidemiology, livelihoods, and governance in response to the two scenarios. Our conclusion focuses on a series of questions that map out a new interdisciplinary research agenda for sustainable shrimp aquaculture in coastal areas.

  6. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  7. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  8. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  9. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  10. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...... optimization sets for corresponding optimization problems is useful in a power system context. Generating and evaluating such spacetime scenarios is difficult. While quite a number of proposals have appeared in the literature, a gap between methodological proposals and actual usage in operational and planning...... studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open...

  11. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    have accepted both functional foods and genetically modified foods. They have confidence in modern food production and believe they are well informed and have a realistic picture of how to produce modern foods. The last scenario 'Tight spending' is based on a lower disposable income and extensive......What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...

  12. Selecting Supersymmetric String Scenarios From Sparticle Spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Allanach, Benjamin C; Quevedo, Fernando

    2002-01-01

    We approach the following question: if supersymmetry is discovered, how can we select among different supersymmetric extensions of the Standard Model? In particular, we perform an analysis of the sparticle spectrum in low-energy string effective theories, asking which observables best distinguish various scenarios. We examine scenarios differing by the fundamental string scale and concentrate on GUT and intermediate scale models. We scan over all parameters (two goldstino angles, tan beta and the gravitino mass) in each scenario, finding ratios of sparticle masses that provide the maximum discrimination between them. The necessary accuracy for discrimination is determined in each case. We find that the required accuracy on various sparticle mass ratios is at the few percent level, a precision that may be achieved in future linear colliders. We place phenomenological constraints on the parameter space and determine the supersymmetric contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment.

  13. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  14. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...... events and uncertainties, especially on long-term horizons such as 25-50 years ahead. In order to deal with these uncertainties, complexities and long-term challenges as well as to influence developments pro-actively, scenario planning is increasingly applied in both policy making and knowledge brokerage....... Scenarios can reveal uncertainties, can help prepare for unexpected changes and highlight crucial decisions to be taken today. Scenarios can offer a clearer picture of the present and visions for the future, can help to identify key driving forces and their trends as well as as-sess potential outcomes...

  15. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...... with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...

  16. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  17. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  18. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  19. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  20. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  1. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  2. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  3. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  4. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  5. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  6. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  7. Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

    2009-08-01

    In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

  8. Heteronuclear Efimov scenario with positive intraspecies scattering lengths

    CERN Document Server

    Ulmanis, Juris; Pires, Rico; Kuhnle, Eva D; Wang, Yujun; Greene, Chris H; Weidemüller, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    We investigate theoretically and experimentally the heteronuclear Efimov scenario for a three-body system that consists of two bosons and one distinguishable particle with repulsive intraspecies interactions. The three-body parameter at the three-body scattering threshold and the scaling factor between consecutive Efimov resonances are found to be controlled by the scattering length between the two bosons, approximately independent of short-range physics. We observe two excited-state Efimov resonances in the three-body recombination spectra of an ultracold mixture of fermionic $^6 $Li and bosonic $^{133} $Cs atoms close to a Li-Cs Feshbach resonance, where the Cs-Cs interaction is repulsive. Deviation of the obtained scaling factor of 4.0(3) from the universal prediction of 4.9 and the absence of the ground state Efimov resonance shed new light on the interpretation of the universality and the discrete scaling behavior of heteronuclear Efimov physics.

  9. Ontology-based collaborative framework for disaster recovery scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ramanathan, Sakkaravarthi; Drira, Khalil; Chassot, Christophe

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims at designing of adaptive framework for supporting collaborative work of different actors in public safety and disaster recovery missions. In such scenarios, firemen and robots interact to each other to reach a common goal; firemen team is equipped with smart devices and robots team is supplied with communication technologies, and should carry on specific tasks. Here, reliable connection is mandatory to ensure the interaction between actors. But wireless access network and communication resources are vulnerable in the event of a sudden unexpected change in the environment. Also, the continuous change in the mission requirements such as inclusion/exclusion of new actor, changing the actor's priority and the limitations of smart devices need to be monitored. To perform dynamically in such case, the presented framework is based on a generic multi-level modeling approach that ensures adaptation handled by semantic modeling. Automated self-configuration is driven by rule-based reconfiguration polici...

  10. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  11. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  12. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  13. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubert, B.; Rosegrant, M.; Boekel, van M.A.J.S.; Ortiz, R.

    2010-01-01

    This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the sce

  14. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  15. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  16. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar...

  17. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  18. Scenario simulation of water security in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUYANG Zhi-yun; ZHAO Tong-qian; WANG Ru-song; Leif S(O)RLUND; ZHANG Qiao-xian

    2004-01-01

    Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.

  19. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  20. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...

  1. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  2. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant clust

  3. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  4. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  5. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  6. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows...

  7. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  8. Demografische modellen voor scenario-onderzoek

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT

    1991-01-01

    A demographic model is described that has been used in scenario-research for calculating future population numbers. The demographic model developed is a discrete Markov-model. It calculates the changes in the Netherlands population numbers for each year successively. the model is specially develo

  9. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with varyin

  10. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  11. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  12. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  13. CIVILIZATION SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Kharin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern world plays an important role civilization factor. In this connection beforeRussiaa task stands forming of civilization identity. A problem consists in that, that exists a few scenarios of civilization development. To their consideration and this article is devoted.

  14. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  15. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  16. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  17. Interactive Pinball Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buur, Jacob; Gudiksen, Sune

    2012-01-01

    Interaction design expands into new fields. Interaction design and business model innovation is a promising meeting of disciplines: Many businesses see the need to rethink their ways of doing business, and, as business models pose highly dynamic and interactive problems, interaction design has much...... to offer. This paper compares ‘tangible business models’ in the form of pinball-like contraptions, designed by interaction design students with those developed by groups of professionals around concrete business issues. We will show how the interactive models encourage business people to play...... with hypotheses and experiment with scenarios as a way of innovating their business models, and why this is so....

  18. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  19. Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

    2013-04-01

    While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W

  20. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Conejero

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

  2. The Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic Globular Clusters. V. Constraints on Formation Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Renzini, A; Cassisi, S; King, I R; Milone, A P; Ventura, P; Anderson, J; Bedin, L R; Bellini, A; Brown, T M; Piotto, G; van der Marel, R P; Barbuy, B; Dalessandro, E; Hidalgo, S; Marino, A F; Ortolani, S; Salaris, M; Sarajedini, A

    2015-01-01

    We build on the evidence provided by our Legacy Survey of Galactic globular clusters (GC) to submit to a crucial test four scenarios currently entertained for the formation of multiple stellar generations in GCs. The observational constraints on multiple generations to be fulfilled are manifold, including GC specificity, ubiquity, variety, predominance, discreteness, supernova avoidance, p-capture processing, helium enrichment and mass budget. We argue that scenarios appealing to supermassive stars, fast rotating massive stars and massive interactive binaries violate in an irreparable fashion two or more among such constraints. Also the scenario appealing to AGB stars as producers of the material for next generation stars encounters severe difficulties, specifically concerning the mass budget problem and the detailed chemical composition of second generation stars. We qualitatively explore ways possibly allowing one to save the AGB scenario, specifically appealing to a possible revision of the cross section o...

  3. Integrated Prevention of Social Dependencies in Adolescents through the Scenario Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina A. Maznichenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article provides a rationale for the need to take an integrated approach to prevention of social dependencies in adolescents. Through this approach, the authors fine-tune the determination of the phenomenon of prevention of social dependencies. The authors bring to light the potential of the scenario method in resolving the above objective. The authors describe the theoretical and practical aspects of scenario planning, concretize its objects, and provide a rationale for the method’s effectiveness in studying the processes of origination and operation of social dependencies in adolescents and projecting the process of their prevention. The authors propound a scenario-planning algorithm. The authors identify and describe model scenarios for the origination of social dependencies in adolescents: “Dependency as an outcome of interaction with an asocial group/person”, “Dependency as a response to a provocation”, “Dependency as a means of deriving pleasure”, “Dependency as a way to escape one’s life problems”, “Dependency as an outcome of the change of a constructive way of interacting with the object of dependency to an unconstructive one”, and “Dependency as a way to express the adolescent’s protest”; the authors determine unproductive stratagems for these scenarios. The authors identify the mechanisms underlying the origination of dependency: “the motive-to-goal shift”, emotional-positive conditioning, social contagion, substitution, compensation for negative emotions, and unblocking. The authors classify by the degree of productivity and correlate with behavioral adolescent scenarios model plots and social-pedagogical scenarios for the interaction of pedagogues and parents in resolving objectives in integrated prevention of social dependencies. The authors provide plots and scenarios for the interaction of pedagogues and parents within the “field of cooperation”, “field of building up cooperation

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  5. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  6. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  7. Integrating of scenario-based simulation into radiology education to improve critical thinking skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abuzaid MM

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available MM Abuzaid, W Elshami Medical Diagnostic Imaging Department, College of Health Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates Introduction: For many years, conventional radiographic films have been used for radiology education. Nevertheless, advances in imaging modalities, image quality, and the number of images produced by various methods have seen a move toward digital formats. Certainly, a patient’s case has a significant value in medical education; it can transfer theoretical knowledge to real experiences. The aim of this study is to evaluate the value of scenario-based simulations in radiology education and their impact on professional learning outcomes.Materials and methods: Patient scenarios were collected and converted to digital teaching files, each supported by clinical history, anatomy illustration, as well as medical and radiological investigation. The scenarios were presented online to radiology professionals for 6 months. At the end of the study, the scenarios were evaluated regarding design, content, and their role in improving critical thinking.Results: Twenty-two scenarios were published online covering various radiology areas. Two hundred and thirty-eight radiology professionals were invited, and 84% participated in the evaluation process. Each participant completed an average of 13 scenarios with an approximate time of 23 minutes for each. The majority of participants agreed or strongly agreed that the scenarios were well designed (94%, were appropriate to their level of knowledge (70%, and helped them in critical thinking and in understanding similar cases (79%. Conclusion: The integration of scenario-based simulations in radiology education led to a positive impact on learning outcomes, formative interactive learning, and filling the gap between theory and practice. Moreover, it promoted critical thinking skills and allowed radiology professionals to demonstrate their knowledge of similar cases

  8. Public acceptance of management methods under different human-wildlife conflict scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Georgari, Marina; Baltzi, Kerasia; Baltzi, Ioanna

    2017-02-01

    Wildlife management seeks to minimise public controversy for successful application of wildlife control methods. Human dimensions research in wildlife seeks a better understanding of public preferences for effective human-wildlife conflict resolution. In face to face interviews, 630 adults in Greece were asked to rate on a 5-point Likert-like scale their acceptance of 3 management methods, i.e., do nothing, non-lethal control, and lethal control, in the context of 5 human-wildlife conflict scenarios: 1) corvids damage crops; 2) starlings damage crops; 3) starlings foul urban structures; 4) coypus damage crops; and 5) coypus transfer disease. Univariate GLMs determined occupation, hunting membership and their interaction as the stronger predictors of public acceptance, generating 4 stakeholder groups: the general public, farmers, hunters, and farmers-hunters. Differences in acceptance and consensus among stakeholder groups were assessed using the Potential for Conflict Index2 (PCI2). All 4 stakeholder groups agreed that doing nothing was unacceptable and non-lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios, with generally high consensus within and between groups. The lethal control method was more controversial and became increasingly more acceptable as the severity of scenarios was increased and between non-native and native species. Lethal control was unacceptable for the general public in all scenarios. Farmers accepted lethal methods in the corvids and starlings scenarios, were neutral in the coypus damage crops scenario, whereas they accepted lethal control when coypus transfer disease. Hunters' opinion was neutral in the corvids, starlings and coypus damage crops and starlings foul urban structures scenarios, but they accepted lethal methods in the coypus transfer disease scenario. Farmers-hunters considered lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios. Implications from this study could be used for designing a socio-ecological approach which incorporates wildlife

  9. Continuous Interaction within the SAIBA Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwiers, Jakob; van Welbergen, H.; Reidsma, Dennis; Vilhjálmsson, Hannes Högni; Kopp, Stefan; Marsella, Stacy; Thórisson, Kristinn R.

    We propose extensions to the SAIBA BML language, aiming in particular to specify reactive behavior and continuous interaction. Examples of interaction scenarios are provided that illustrate the usefulness of these extensions. The impact on the SAIBA architecture is discussed.

  10. Comprehensive Study of Plasma-Wall Sheath Transport Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-26

    temperature is always well below that expected for significant thermionic emission from LaB6, and the heat flux from the plasma is also low given the order...measurements from HET materials is their low electrical conductivity. In a typical electron emission study, a primary electron beam is focused onto to...Transition Controlled by Secondary Electron Emission at Low Gas Pressure,” 67th Annual Gaseous Electronics Conference, Raleigh, NC, November 2-7, 2014

  11. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Christian T; Liddle, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyse its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become non-relativistic, and change the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order $0.1$ typically. If the branching ratio is below about $10^{-4}$ it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  12. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  13. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  14. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Naoya [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L., E-mail: nkobayas@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: erickcek@physics.unc.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H8 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  15. Rolling in the Modulated Reheating Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Erickcek, Adrienne L

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheated scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  16. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  17. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  18. Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Adolfo Sierra Romero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

  19. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in general as well as in the context of the CORPUS project. Moreover, it reviews recent examples of scenario building approaches in the sustainable food domain. The potential roles and applications of different types of scenarios such as backcasting or quantitative models and their benefit for policy making......Over the last few decades, considerable changes in food consumption – such as eating habits, dietary changes, availability and accessability of food – have taken place. These are mainly due to an increase in productivity of the food sector, a greater diversity in product choices and a decrease...... in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...

  20. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...... management systems. The study focuses on Europe in terms of waste composition and exchange with the energy system. The waste management systems modeled are described with respect to waste composition, waste management technologies, mass flows and energy exchange in the systems. Results are first presented...

  1. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  2. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  3. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  4. Conditional Reasoning: Scenario or context effects

    OpenAIRE

    Valiña, Mª Dolores; Seoane, Gloria; Ghering, Sonnya; Ferraces, Mª José; Fernández-Rey, Xosé

    1992-01-01

    This paper study the importance of contextual factors in reasoning with conditional inference tasks. In this experiment subjects were given conditional sentences in the context of narrative texts, Short stories about scenarios of the daily life were described in this texts. The experiment manipulated: a) context (causal or promises/threats), b) degree of factual relation between antecedent and consequent of conditional (deterministic, probabilistic or without relation), c) congruence betwe...

  5. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  6. New procedure of generation of action scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniszewski, Michał; Wereszczyński, Kamil; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Fernes, Daniel; Segen, Jakub; Kulbacki, Marek; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2017-07-01

    Algorithms of tracking and action recognition are still under development and many problems still have to be solved. New methods are usually tested on available benchmarks with defined actions and human behavior however such approach has many limitations. For that reason the authors proposed new procedure of generating random action instances using on graph-based scenarios. Such idea can be applied in creation of different datasets as well as in simulations.

  7. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

    2017-06-01

    The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

  8. Critical stress scenarios for a coastal aquifer in southeastern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Cherubini

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years the sustainable management of coastal water resources has become strategic, especially in southern Salento Peninsula (Apulia, where mal-performing management strategies adopted, together with the vulnerability of the hydrogeological system, have given rise to the deterioration of groundwater quality due to saltwater intrusion.

    In the study area there is the presence of multilevel shallow aquifer and a deep aquifer that interact by means of faults. The geological system is highly vulnerable to seawater intrusion so there is the need to adopt management strategies to avoid seawater intrusion phenomena. Nevertheless there is a lack of studies that analyze the methodology for the correct exploitation if the water resource in order to avoid further intrusion phenomena.

    This paper combines a density-driven, flow numerical model (Seawat v.4 with a fault conceptual and hydrologic model to simulate saltwater intrusion phenomenon in the deep as well as in the shallow aquifer of the Salento area. By means of the individuation of an indicator parameter of groundwater quality, it has been possible to simulate different scenarios of exploitation and therefore to define critical stress scenarios for both aquifers.

    The results show that the deep aquifer is more vulnerable than the shallow one, which means that in the former, in order not to reach conditions of contamination, a lower density of wells is necessary than in the latter.

    The reduction of well density coupled with the artificial recharge of freshwater into the aquifer may be proposed as a solution strategy to protect the aquifer.

    Therefore, future developments of the present study will be represented by the simulation of different scenarios of recharging to inhibit the saltwater intrusion front further inland. The proposed methodology and its future developments can represent an empirical tool to provide preliminary guidelines for long

  9. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  10. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  11. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  12. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  13. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  14. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  15. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  16. Structural Analysis of the Global Multimedia Scenario: Technological, Market, Environmental, and Regulatory Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolo, Enrico; Sapio, Bartolomeo

    1996-01-01

    Presents a strategic evaluation of the global multimedia scenario, considering both stand-alone workstations and distributed multimedia in the worldwide interactive network, including educational databases on the Internet. Discusses 50 technological, market, environmental, and regulatory factors and estimates their impacts on each other using WISE…

  17. Prospective scenarios for the biodiesel chain of a Brazilian state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaccaro, Guilherme Luis Roehe; Pohlmann, Christopher [UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, PPGEPS - Post Graduate Program on Production and Systems Engineering (Brazil); Lima, Andre Cirne; dos Santos, Manoela Silveira; de Souza, Cristina Botti [IEL-RS-Instituto Euvaldo Lodi (Brazil); Azevedo, Debora [UFRGS - Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, PPGA - Post Graduate Program in Management Science (Brazil)

    2010-05-15

    This paper presents a study based on the Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning (STSP) method, focusing the biodiesel production chain of Rio Grande do Sul State. The aim of the study was to identify key elements to comprehend the systemic structure of interaction among the ties of this chain. The study was held by a team of specialists over five months, including 15 meetings. Discussions were based on quantitative and qualitative data and a systemic map was constructed and refined. Based on this modeling, four different prospective scenarios were comparatively analyzed in order to propose strategic actions to promote the sustainability and competitiveness of the chain. The results were then presented to two different groups of external specialists in order to validate the conclusions drawn and the proposals. Both groups agreed with the ideas presented. The paper is constructed as follows: a brief introduction focusing on contextual elements of the biodiesel production in Brazil and in Rio Grande do Sul; some background material regarding agroindustrial production chains and an overview of the biodiesel production chain of interest; a description of the method used to perform the research; main results and discussion; and conclusions. With this paper the authors also hope to contribute to the discussion regarding competitiveness and sustainability of biofuel chains in Brazil. (author)

  18. Geriatric medicine in the European Union: future scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duursma, S A; Overstall, P W

    2003-06-01

    The differences in training and services in geriatric medicine between European Union member countries raise some questions: what is a geriatrician, what is geriatric medicine, what will be the future development of the specialty and how does it interact with other medical specialties? To find answers to these questions, a questionnaire was sent to a selected group of 122 geriatricians. The response rate was 60%. A description has been given of what is a geriatrician and what is geriatric medicine. Based on data from the literature and the answers of the respondents six future scenarios were designed. The six scenarios are: the 'healthy old people', the 'adapted specialties', the 'general practitioner + additional training', the 'co-ordinator geriatrician', the 'community geriatrician' and the 'hospital geriatrician'. The answers of the respondents gave doubts whether general practitioners are able to provide the full range of services for geriatric patients in the community. A small majority of the respondents opted for a division of the specialty into community geriatric medicine and hospital geriatric medicine. Such a division offers good opportunities to raise the quality of medical services and to reduce age-related treatment limitation. It is expected that some aspects of geriatric medicine will be included in the training of other specialties and some GPs will obtain additional training. The collected data can not be considered as a representation of the ideas of the European Union geriatricians. However, they may contribute to the discussion on the national and European level about the future of the specialty.

  19. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  20. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marin, Eduardo; /CERN; Tomas, Rogelio; /CERN; Bambade, Philip; /Orsay, LAL; Kuroda, Shigeru; /KEK, Tsukuba; Okugi, Toshiyuki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Tauchi, Toshiaki; /KEK, Tsukuba; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; /KEK, Tsukuba; Urakawa, Junji; /KEK, Tsukuba; Parker, Brett; /Brookhaven; Seryi, Andrei; /SLAC; White, Glen; /SLAC; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  1. Heteronuclear Efimov Scenario with Positive Intraspecies Scattering Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmanis, Juris; Häfner, Stephan; Pires, Rico; Kuhnle, Eva D.; Wang, Yujun; Greene, Chris H.; Weidemüller, Matthias

    2016-10-01

    We investigate theoretically and experimentally the heteronuclear Efimov scenario for a three-body system that consists of two bosons and one distinguishable particle with positive intraspecies scattering lengths. The three-body parameter at the three-body scattering threshold and the scaling factor between consecutive Efimov resonances are found to be controlled by the scattering length between the two bosons, approximately independent of short-range physics. We observe two excited-state Efimov resonances in the three-body recombination spectra of an ultracold mixture of fermionic 6Li 6 and bosonic 113Cs atoms close to a Li-Cs Feshbach resonance, where the Cs-Cs interaction is positive. Deviation of the obtained scaling factor of 4.0(3) from the universal prediction of 4.9 and the absence of the ground state Efimov resonance shed new light on the interpretation of the universality and the discrete scaling behavior of heteronuclear Efimov physics.

  2. Global trade and climate policy scenarios. Impact on Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honkatukia, J.; Kaitila, V.; Kotilainen, M.; Niemi, J.

    2012-09-15

    In this study we use the dynamic version of the GTAP model to analyse the effects of global trade policy changes and their interaction with different global climate policy regimes from Finland's point of view, and in particular, implications for Finnish export sectors. Scenarios explore further trade liberalisation as well as effects of higher-than-current tariffs on world markets. As a complementary dimension we analyse the impact of a global climate agreement that will lead to an additional improvement in energy efficiency and impose limitations to GHG emissions. We find a general trend towards a greater weight of services sector in Finland's total exports volume, whilst the share of traditionally important heavy industry and electronics industries declines. These trends are amplified by further trade liberalisation and slowed down by new barriers for trade. The global coverage of climate policy is particularly significant for energy-intensive industries. (orig.)

  3. Scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oborn, Ingrid; Bengtsson, Jan; Hedenus, Fredrik; Rydhmer, Lotta; Stenström, Maria; Vrede, Katarina; Westin, Charles; Magnusson, Ulf

    2013-11-01

    To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.

  4. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  5. Frugivore-Mediated Selection in A Habitat Transformation Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontúrbel, Francisco E.; Medel, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    Plant-animal interactions are strong drivers of phenotypic evolution. However, the extent to which anthropogenic habitat transformation creates new selective scenarios for plant-animal interactions is a little explored subject. We examined the effects of native forest replacement by exotic Eucalyptus trees on the frugivore-mediated phenotypic selection coefficients imposed by the relict marsupial Dromiciops gliroides upon traits involved in frugivore attraction and germination success of the mistletoe Tristerix corymbosus (Loranthaceae). We found significant gradients for seed weight and sugar content along the native - transformed habitat gradient. While selection for larger seed weight was more relevant in native habitats, fruits with intermediate sugar content were promoted in transformed habitats. The spatial habitat structure and microclimate features such as the degree of sunlight received influenced the natural selection processes, as they correlated with the phenotypic traits analysed. The response of this plant-frugivore interaction to human disturbance seemed to be context-dependent, in which extremely transformed habitats would offer new opportunities for natural selection on dispersal-related traits. Even in recent transformation events like this, human disturbance acts as a strong contemporary evolution driver. PMID:28349942

  6. SAFRR AND Physics-Based Scenarios: The Power of Scientifically Credible Stories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    USGS's SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Project and its predecessor, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project, uses the latest earth science to develop scenarios so that communities can improve disaster resilience. SAFRR has created detailed physics-based natural-disaster scenarios of a M7.8 San Andreas earthquake in southern California (ShakeOut), atmospheric-river storms rivaling the Great California Flood of 1862 (ARkStorm), a Tohoku-sized earthquake and tsunami in the eastern Aleutians (SAFRR Tsunami), and now a M7.05 quake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area (HayWired), as novel ways of providing science for decision making. Each scenario is scientifically plausible, deterministic, and large enough to demand attention but not too large to be believable. The scenarios address interacting hazards, requiring involvement of multiple science disciplines and user communities. The scenarios routinely expose hitherto unknown or ignored vulnerabilities, most often in cascading effects missed when impacts are considered in isolation. They take advantage of story telling to provide decision makers with clear explanations and justifications for mitigation and preparedness actions, and have been used for national-to-local disaster response exercises and planning. Effectiveness is further leveraged by downscaling the scenarios to local levels. For example, although the ARkStorm scenario describes state-scale events and has been used that way by NASA and the Navy, SAFRR also partnered with FEMA to focus on two local areas, Ventura County in the coastal plain and the mountain setting of Lake Tahoe with downstream impacts in Reno, Sparks and Carson City. Downscaling and focused analyses increased usefulness to user communities, drawing new participants into the study. SAFRR scenarios have also motivated new research to answer questions uncovered by stakeholders, closing the circle of co-evolving disaster-science and disaster-response improvements.

  7. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  8. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  9. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  10. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  11. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  12. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Linde, A; Vikman, A

    2009-01-01

    In a recent paper arXiv:0910.2230, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in arXiv:0910.2230 are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  13. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  14. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  15. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  16. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazeia, D; Menezes, R; Olmo, Gonzalo J; Rubiera-Garcia, D

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein's theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  17. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...

  18. The teaching profession: scenarios, profiles and tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Palomero Fernández

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the special issue of the Revista Electrónica Interuniversitaria de Formación del Profesorado, 35, volumen 13 (4 entitled The teaching profession: Scenarios, profiles and tendencies. It contains contributions from authors affiliated to twenty-eight different institutions across five countries: Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru. The twenty-eight articles included are followed by a number of PhD thesis summaries and book reviews, whose general framework is that of the teaching profession.

  19. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...

  20. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  1. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...... the inferred privacy region is a random set obtained by an adversary who only knows the anchor and the points received from the server, where the adversary ‘does the best' to infer the possible locations of the user. Probabilistic results related to the communication cost and the inferred privacy region...

  2. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  3. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  4. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  5. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

  6. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  7. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  8. Robustness of WLO-scenarios; Bestendigheid van WLO-scenario's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilbers, H.; Snellen, D.

    2010-12-15

    Developments in demography, economy and mobility have been showing major fluctuations in the last decade. As a result the question rose whether the WLO future scenarios, which provide an important basis for the spatial policy of the Dutch government, are still usable. This turns out to be the case. Most of the fluctuations of recent years are still within the margins of the sketched scenarios. [Dutch] De ontwikkelingen in demografie, economie en mobiliteit vertonen de laatste tien jaar grote schommelingen. Daarmee rees de vraag of de WLO-toekomstscenario's, die een belangrijke basis vormen voor het ruimtelijk beleid van de rijksoverheid, nog steeds bruikbaar zijn. Dat blijkt zo te zijn. De schommelingen van de laatste jaren vallen merendeels nog steeds binnen de marges van de geschetste scenario's.

  9. Hybrid Modeling for Scenario-Based Evaluation of Failure Effects in Advanced Hardware-Software Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land; Throop, David

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes an incremental scenario-based simulation approach to evaluation of intelligent software for control and management of hardware systems. A hybrid continuous/discrete event simulation of the hardware dynamically interacts with the intelligent software in operations scenarios. Embedded anomalous conditions and failures in simulated hardware can lead to emergent software behavior and identification of missing or faulty software or hardware requirements. An approach is described for extending simulation-based automated incremental failure modes and effects analysis, to support concurrent evaluation of intelligent software and the hardware controlled by the software

  10. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  11. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wächter Petra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30–40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  12. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  13. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  14. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  16. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  17. Scenarios for the South African Water Sector in 2025; Presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Funke, Nicola S

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available do to ensure they have the scenario information they need to make important decisions at their disposal? • Develop scenarios when needed • Engage with science councils, research organisations and boundary organisations to access latest relevant...

  18. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  19. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  20. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  1. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I......), often fail to meaningfullyconnect with the situation, decision-makers or concerns at hand, and tend to lean towardsexperts. Some of these new mediated practices shift away from more technocratic models ofparticipation that often display an impoverish understanding of the co-production of technologyand...

  2. Interactive Foresight Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Mette Sanne; Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard; Jacobsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation...

  3. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  4. Scenario-building considerations for financial planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, S.; Carino, D.

    1994-12-31

    The construction of scenarios is an essential model-building step in stochastic programming. When a discrete sample of scenarios is chosen to represent a continuity of potential outcomes, scenario choice can impact both solution speed and quality. For financial planning models, techniques are discussed that ensure a scenario set matches moments of the continuous distribution and improvements in solution speed and quality are investigated.

  5. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a simulation study on the generation of a random scenario for the performance of track splitting algorithm on a digital signal processor.  Much of the previous work [1] was done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios...

  6. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  7. An alternative scenario for the formation of specialized protein nano-domains (cluster phases) in biomembranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destainville, N.

    2010-09-01

    We discuss a realistic scenario, accounting for the existence of sub-micrometric protein domains in cell membranes. At the biological level, such membrane domains have been shown to be specialized, in order to perform a determined biological task, in the sense that they gather one or a few protein species out of the hundreds of different ones that a cell membrane may contain. By analyzing the balance between mixing entropy and protein affinities, we propose that such protein sorting in distinct domains can be explained without appealing to pre-existing lipidic micro-phase separations, as in the lipid raft scenario. We show that the proposed scenario is compatible with known physical interactions between membrane proteins, even if thousands of different species coexist.

  8. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across...

  9. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  10. A scenario based project portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Pourahmadi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

  11. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...... the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), which has a lot of parallels with the MOLAND approach, known from various research applications. As we are new to land use modelling, this exercise should also illustrate the possibilities of non-modelling experts to elaborate a practical...

  12. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  13. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  14. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....

  15. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Turok, N G; Turok, Neil; Seinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the Cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflat...

  16. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  17. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows....... It jointly performs congestion control and inter-cell interference avoidance by means of a utility describing the cell's channel. Centralized and uncoordinated schemes are studied. The first is defined as an integer linear program, while the second builds on the best channel utility developed for the first...... and combines it with a stochastic admission process. Based on simulation evaluation, it is shown that uncoordinated is near-optimal, while providing a viable solution for uncoordinated small cell deployments. Finally, the best utility developed proved better than the traditional power allocation....

  18. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...... development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...

  19. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  20. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-08-09

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulkarni Dhananjay M

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease.

  2. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  3. Inhomogeneous reheating scenario with DBI fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng

    2010-08-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed cs from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL is independent of cs. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  4. The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saueressig, Frank [Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Asymptotic safety offers the possibility that gravity constitutes a consistent and predictive quantum field theory within Wilsons generalized framework of renormalization. The key ingredient of this scenario is a non-trivial fixed point of the gravitational renormalization group flow which governs the UV behavior of the theory. The fixed point itself thereby guarantees the absence of unphysical UV divergences while its associated finite-dimensional UV-critical surface ensures the predictivity of the resulting quantum theory. This talk summarizes the evidence for the existence of such a fixed point, which emerged from the flow equation for the effective average action, the gravitational beta-functions in 2+{epsilon} dimensions, the 2-Killing vector reduction of the gravitational path-integral and lattice simulations. Possible phenomenological consequences are discussed in detail.

  5. Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai-Yuan; Wu Pu-Xun; Yu Hong-Wei

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton-Jacobi formalism,where the Friedmann equation has the form of H2 =ρ + ε√2ρ0ρ or H2 =ρ + ερ2/2σ,with ε =+ 1.We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential.However,in the case of a-ρ2 correction to the standard cosmology with ρ < σ,the existence of an attractor solution requires (σ-ρ)/φ2 > 1.Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology,which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction.Thus,the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

  6. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  7. Inhomogeneous Reheating Scenario with DBI fields

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Sheng

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed $c_s$ from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{NL}$ is independent of $c_s$. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  10. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  11. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Darabi, F. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Research Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics of Maragha (RIAAM), Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheykhi, A. [College of Sciences, Shiraz University, Physics Department and Biruni Observatory, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} where N{sub bulk} and N{sub sur} are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper,we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} - N{sub extr} where N{sub extr} is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N{sub sur} and N{sub bulk} are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields. (orig.)

  12. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  13. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  14. Summary of FY-1978 consultant input for scenario methodology development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A. (eds.); Harwell, M.A.

    1979-11-01

    Associated with commercial nuclear power production in the United States is the generation of potentially hazardous radioactive waste products. The Department of Energy (DOE), through the National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Program, is seeking to develop nuclear waste isolation systems in geologic formations. These underground waste isolation systems will preclude contact with the biosphere of waste radionuclides in concentrations which are sufficient to cause deleterious impact on humans or their environments. Comprehensive analyses of specific isolation systems are needed to assess the postclosure expectations of the systems. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) program has been established for developing the capability of making those analyses. The assessment of repository post-closure safety has two basic components: identification and analyses of breach scenarios and the pattern of events and processes causing each breach, and identification and analyses of the environmental consequences of radionuclide transport and interactions subsequent to a repository breach. Specific processes and events which might affect potential repository sites and, the rates and probabilities for those phenomena are presented. The description of the system interactions and synergisms and of the repository system as an evolving and continuing process are included. Much of the preliminary information derived from the FY-1978 research effort is summarized in this document. This summary report contains information pertaining to the following areas of study: climatology, geomorphology, glaciology, hydrology, meteorites, sea level fluctuations, structural geology and volcanology.

  15. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  16. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  17. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  18. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  19. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  20. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...

  1. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  2. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  3. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  4. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  5. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  6. Hepatotoxicity and the present herbal hepatoprotective scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyankar Dey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the metabolic and physiological processes of our body as well as the detoxification of various drugs and xenobiotic chemicals occur in the liver. During this detoxification process, the reactive chemical intermediates damage the liver severely. There are several commercially available drugs, consumption of which results in idiosyncratic drug reaction mediated hepatotoxicity. Drug induced hepatotoxicity is a burning problem in this regard and several drugs are withdrawn from the market due to their hepatotoxic nature. Today, worldwide search of non-hepatotoxic drugs, especially potent hepatoprotective drugs have led towards the screening of numerous herbal products. Pharmaceutical companies and scientific communities have started to consider the therapeutic efficiency of the plant-based hepatoprotective remedies. Different herbs are mentioned in various ethnopharmacological practices possessing hepatoprotective capacities and around the globe, such herbs are still used by people to cure certain liver diseases. Therefore, we have documented the various aspects of hepatotoxicity and an overview on the current scenario of the hepatoprotective herbal remedies.

  7. A Hadronic Scenario for the Galactic Ridge

    CERN Document Server

    Gaggero, Daniele; Marinelli, Antonio; Urbano, Alfredo; Valli, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Several observations from Fermi-LAT, up to few hundred GeV, and from H.E.S.S., up to $\\sim$ 10 TeV, reported an intense $\\gamma$-ray emission from the inner part of the Galactic plane. After the subtraction of point-like contributions, the remaining $\\gamma$-ray spectrum can provide important hints about the cosmic-ray (CR) population in that region. In particular, the diffuse spectrum measured by both Fermi-LAT and H.E.S.S. in the Galactic Ridge is significantly harder with respect to the rest of the Galaxy. These results were recently interpreted in terms of a comprehensive CR transport model which, adopting a spatial dependent diffusion coefficient and convective velocity, reproduces Fermi-LAT results on the whole sky as well as local CR spectra. We showed as that model predicts a significantly harder neutrino diffuse emission compared to conventional scenarios: The predicted signal is able to account for a significant fraction of the astrophysical flux measured by IceCube. In this contribution, we use the...

  8. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  9. General Relativistic Simulations of the Collapsar Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    DeBrye, N; Aloy, M A; Font, J A

    2013-01-01

    We are exploring the viability of the collapsar model for long-soft gamma-ray bursts. For this we perform state-of-the-art general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in a dynamically evolving space-time with the CoCoNuT code. We start from massive low metallicity stellar models evolved up to core gravitational instability, and then follow the subsequent evolution until the system collapses forming a compact remnant. A preliminary study of the collapse outcome is performed by varying the typical parameters of the scenario, such as the initial stellar mass, metallicity, and rotational profile of the stellar progenitor. 1D models (without rotation) have been used to test our newly developed neutrino leakage scheme. This is a fundamental piece of our approach as it allows the central remnant (in all cases considered, a metastable high-mass neutron star) to cool down, eventually collapsing to a black hole. In two dimensions, we show that sufficiently fast rotating cores lead to the formation of Kerr black holes...

  10. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  11. Dynamical scenarios for chromosome bi-orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-06-18

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly.

  12. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  13. Future Scenario of Renewable Energy in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kumar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review about future scenario of renewable energy in India.Energy is a vital input for economic and social development of any country. With increasing industrialand agricultural activities in the country, the demand for energy is also rising. Solar, wind and biomassare accepted as dependable and widely available renewable sources of energy. To meet the energy requirement for such a fast growingeconomy, India will require an assured supply of 3–5 times more energy than the total energy consumedtoday. The renewable energy is one of the options to meet this requirement Energy is the prime mover of economic growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. Future economic growth crucially depends on the long-term availability of energy from sources that are affordable, accessible and environmentally friendly. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. This paper presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India. In this paper evaluation of current energy policies for conquering the obstructions and implementing renewables for the future is also been presented.

  14. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  15. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  16. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seng Pei Liew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 σ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain g˜→gχ˜1,20→gZG˜′ becomes dominant, where χ˜1,20 and G˜′ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as mg˜∼1000 GeV, mχ˜1,20∼800 GeV and mG˜′∼600 GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  17. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  18. Quest for potentials in the quintessence scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Hara, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    The time variation of the equation of state $w$ for quintessence scenario with a scalar field as dark energy is studied up to the third derivative ($d^3w/da^3$) with respect to the scale factor $a$, in order to predict the future observations and specify the scalar potential parameters with the observables. The third derivative of $w$ for general potential $V$ is derived and applied to several types of potentials. They are the inverse power-law ($V=M^{4+\\alpha}/Q^{\\alpha}$), the exponential ($V=M^4\\exp{(\\beta M/Q)}$), the cosine ($V=M^4(\\cos (Q/f)+1)$) and the Gaussian types ($V=M^4\\exp(-Q^2/\\sigma^2)$), which are prototypical potentials for the freezing and thawing models. If the parameter number for a potential form is $ n$, it is necessary to find at least for $n+2$ independent observations to identify the potential form and the evolution of the scalar field ($Q$ and $ \\dot{Q} $). Such observations would be the values of $ \\Omega_Q, w, dw/da. \\cdots $, and $ dw^n/da^n$. Since four of the above mentioned po...

  19. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  20. Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

    2016-06-22

    Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  2. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  3. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  4. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent

  5. GEOWOW: a drought scenario for multidisciplinary data access and use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Roglia, Elena; Craglia, Massimo; Nativi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Recent enhancements of the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI; http://www.earthobservations.org/gci_gci.shtml), and in particular the introduction of a middleware in the GCI that brokers across heterogeneous information systems, have increased significantly the number of information resources discoverable worldwide. Now the challenge moves to the next level of ensuring access and use of the resources discovered, which have many different and domain-specific data models, communication protocols, encoding formats, etc. The GEOWOW Project - GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water, http://www.geowow.eu - developed a set of multidisciplinary use scenarios to advance the present GCI. This work describes the "Easy discovery and use of GEOSS resources for addressing multidisciplinary challenges related to drought scenarios" showcase demonstrated at the last GEO Plenary in Foz de Iguazu (Brazil). The scientific objectives of this showcase include: prevention and mitigation of water scarcity and drought situations, assessment of the population and geographical area potentially affected, evaluation of the possible distribution of mortality and economic loss risk, and support in building greater capacity to cope with drought. The need to address these challenges calls for producing scientifically robust and consistent information about the extent of land affected by drought and degradation. Similarly, in this context it is important: (i) to address uncertainties about the way in which various biological, physical, social, and economic factors interact each other and influence the occurrence of drought events, and (ii) to develop and test adequate indices and/or combination of them for monitoring and forecasting drought in different geographic locations and at various spatial scales (Brown et al., 2002). The scientific objectives above can be met with an increased interoperability across the multidisciplinary domains relevant to this drought scenario. In particular

  6. Scenario based outdoor simulation in pre-hospital trauma care using a simple mannequin model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grier Gareth

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction We describe a system of scenario-based training using simple mannequins under realistic circumstances for the training of pre-hospital care providers. Methods A simple intubatable mannequin or student volunteers are used together with a training version of the equipment used on a routine basis by the pre-hospital care team (doctor + paramedic. Training is conducted outdoors at the base location all year round. The scenarios are led by scenario facilitators who are predominantly senior physicians. Their role is to brief the training team and guide the scenario, results of patient assessment and the simulated responses to interventions and treatment. Pilots, fire-fighters and medical students are utilised in scenarios to enhance realism by taking up roles as bystanders, additional ambulance staff and police. These scenario participants are briefed and introduced to the scene in a realistic manner. After completion of the scenario, the training team would usually be invited to prepare and deliver a hospital handover as they would in a real mission. A formal structured debrief then takes place. Results This training method technique has been used for the training of all London Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (London HEMS doctors and paramedics over the last 24 months. Informal participant feedback suggests that this is a very useful teaching method, both for improving motor skills, critical decision-making, scene management and team interaction. Although formal assessment of this technique has not yet taken place we describe how this type of training is conducted in a busy operational pre-hospital trauma service. Discussion The teaching and maintenance of pre-hospital care skills is essential to an effective pre-hospital trauma care system. Simple mannequin based scenario training is feasible on a day-to-day basis and has the advantages of low cost, rapid set up and turn around. The scope of scenarios is limited only by

  7. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  8. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  9. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  10. About Landau–Hopf scenario in a system of coupled self-oscillators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuznetsov, Alexander P.; Kuznetsov, Sergey P.; Sataev, Igor R.; Turukina, Ludmila V., E-mail: lvtur@rambler.ru

    2013-12-17

    The conditions are discussed for which an ensemble of interacting oscillators may demonstrate the Landau–Hopf scenario of successive birth of multi-frequency quasi-periodic motions. A model is proposed that is a network of five globally coupled oscillators characterized by controlled degree of activation of individual oscillators. Illustrations are given for successive birth of tori of increasing dimension via quasi-periodic Hopf bifurcations.

  11. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  12. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  13. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and pr...

  14. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  15. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  16. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  17. Computational studies of origins of life scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Damien Cherian

    Understanding the origins of life on Earth is one of the most intriguing problems facing science today. In the research presented here, we apply computational methods to explore origins of life scenarios. In particular, we focus on the origins of the genetic code and the intersection between geochemistry and a primordial "biochemistry" in which mononucleotides could form short oligoucleotide chains. We also apply quantum chemical methods to a modern biochemical reaction, the charging of tRNA by an aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase, in order to shed light on the possible chemistry one may want to consider in problems relating to the origins of life. The question of how codons came to be associated with specific amino acids in the present form of the genetic code is one fundamental part of gaining insight into the origins of life. Carl Woese and coworkers designed a series of experiments to test associations between amino acids and nucleobases that may have played a role in establishing the genetic code. Through these experiments it was found that a property of amino acids called the polar requirement (PR) is correlated to the organization of the codon table. No other property of amino acids has been found that correlates with the codon table as well as PR, indicating that PR is uniquely related to the modern genetic code. Using molecular dynamics simulations of amino acids in solutions of water and dimethylpyridine used to experimentally measure PR, we show that variations in the partitioning between the two phases as described by radial distribution functions correlate well with the measured PRs. Partition coefficients based on probability densities of the amino acids in each phase have the linear behavior with base concentration as suggested by the PR experiments. We also investigate the possible roles of inorganic mineral surfaces in catalysis and stabilization of reactions essential for early forms of replicating systems that could have evolved into biochemical

  18. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  19. LIG1 polymorphisms: the Indian scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amit Kumar Mitra; Ashok Singh; Indian Genome Variation Consortium; Srikanta Kumar Rath

    2014-08-01

    Elucidation of the genetic diversity and relatedness of the subpopulations of India may provide a unique resource for future analysis of genetic association of several critical community-specific complex diseases.We performed a comprehensive exploration of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the gene DNA ligase 1 (LIG1) among a multiethnic panel of Indian subpopulations representative of the ethnic, linguistic and geographical diversity of India using a two-stage design involving DNA resequencing-based SNP discovery followed by SNP validation using sequenom-based genotyping. Thirty SNPs were identified in LIG1 gene using DNA resequencing including three promoter SNPs and one coding SNP. Following SNP validation, the SNPs rs20580/C19008A and rs3730862/C8804T were found to have the most widespread prevalence with noticeable variations in minor allele frequencies both between the Indian subpopulation groups and also from those reported on other major world populations. Subsequently, SNPs found in Indian subpopulations were analysed using bioinformatics-based approaches and compared with SNP data available on major world populations. Further, we also performed genotype–phenotype association analysis of LIG1 SNPs with publicly available data on LIG1 mRNA expression in HapMap samples. Results showed polymorphisms in LIG1 affect its expression and may therefore change its function. Our results stress upon the uniqueness of the Indian population with respect to the worldwide scenario and suggest that any epidemiological study undertaken on the global population should take this distinctiveness in consideration and avoid making generalized conclusions.

  20. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  1. Super-heavy dark matter – Towards predictive scenarios from inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kannike, Kristjan [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, W. Ostwaldi 1, 50411 Tartu (Estonia)

    2017-05-15

    A generic prediction of the Coleman–Weinberg inflation is the existence of a heavy particle sector whose interactions with the inflaton, the lightest state in this sector, generate the inflaton potential at loop level. For typical interactions the heavy sector may contain stable states whose relic abundance is generated at the end of inflation by the gravity alone. This general feature, and the absence of any particle physics signal of dark matter so far, motivates us to look for new directions in the dark sector physics, including scenarios in which dark matter is super-heavy. In this article we study the possibility that the dark matter is even heavier than the inflaton, its existence follows from the inflaton dynamics, and its abundance today is naturally determined by the weakness of gravitational interaction. This implies that the super-heavy dark matter scenarios can be tested via the measurements of inflationary parameters and/or the CMB isocurvature perturbations and non-Gaussianities. We explicitly work out details of three Coleman–Weinberg inflation scenarios, study the systematics of super-heavy dark matter production in those cases, and compute which parts of the parameter spaces can be probed by the future CMB measurements.

  2. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  3. Comprehensive Set of Misalignment Scenarios for the CMS Tracker

    CERN Document Server

    Lampen, Tapio; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schmidt, Alexander; Weber, Markus

    2008-01-01

    New misalignment scenarios are implemented for the CMS Tracker as a set of working hypotheses for simulation studies. Educated guesses of random misalignments are applied to various geometrical structures. $\\chi ^{2}$-invariant deformations are not simulated. The new scenarios are called as SurveyLASOnly, SurveyLASCosmics, $10\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$, $100\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ and $1000\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ scenarios, and they correspond approximately to the respective situation. Details of the scenarios and a list of possible future improvements are discussed. The impact on track reconstruction performance and Z mass reconstruction are also discussed.

  4. Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henrique M. Pereira; Paul W. Leadley; Vânia Proença; Rob Alkemade; Jörn P. W. Scharlemann; Juan F. Fernandez-Manjarrés; Miguel B. Araújo; Patricia Balvanera; Reinette Biggs; William W. L. Cheung; Louise Chini; H. David Cooper; Eric L. Gilman; Sylvie Guénette; George C. Hurtt; Henry P. Huntington; Georgina M. Mace; Thierry Oberdorff; Carmen Revenga; Patrícia Rodrigues; Robert J. Scholes; Ussif Rashid Sumaila; Matt Walpole

    2010-01-01

    .... We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts...

  5. Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI YueChen; HE ChunYang

    2008-01-01

    Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model, Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern China in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors' weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern China.

  6. Runaway Massive Binaries and Cluster Ejection Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    McSwain, M V; Boyajian, T S; Grundstrom, E D; Roberts, M S E; Ransom, Scott M.; Boyajian, Tabetha S.; Grundstrom, Erika D.

    2006-01-01

    The production of runaway massive binaries offers key insights into the evolution of close binary stars and open clusters. The stars HD 14633 and HD 15137 are rare examples of such runaway systems, and in this work we investigate the mechanism by which they were ejected from their parent open cluster, NGC 654. We discuss observational characteristics that can be used to distinguish supernova ejected systems from those ejected by dynamical interactions, and we present the results of a new radio pulsar search of these systems as well as estimates of their predicted X-ray flux assuming that each binary contains a compact object. Since neither pulsars nor X-ray emission are observed in these systems, we cannot conclude that these binaries contain compact companions. We also consider whether they may have been ejected by dynamical interactions in the dense environment where they formed, and our simulations of four-body interactions suggest that a dynamical origin is possible but unlikely. We recommend further X-ra...

  7. Grapevine Pathogenic Microorganisms: Understanding Infection Strategies and Host Response Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armijo, Grace; Schlechter, Rudolf; Agurto, Mario; Muñoz, Daniela; Nuñez, Constanza; Arce-Johnson, Patricio

    2016-01-01

    Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is one of the most important fruit crop worldwide. Commercial cultivars are greatly affected by a large number of pathogenic microorganisms that cause diseases during pre- and/or post-harvest periods, affecting production, processing and export, along with fruit quality. Among the potential threats, we can find bacteria, fungi, oomycete, or viruses with different life cycles, infection mechanisms and evasion strategies. While plant-pathogen interactions are cycles of resistance and susceptibility, resistance traits from natural resources are selected and may be used for breeding purposes and for a sustainable agriculture. In this context, here we summarize some of the most important diseases affecting V. vinifera together with their causal agents. The aim of this work is to bring a comprehensive review of the infection strategies deployed by significant types of pathogens while understanding the host response in both resistance and susceptibility scenarios. New approaches being used to uncover grapevine status during biotic stresses and scientific-based procedures needed to control plant diseases and crop protection are also addressed.

  8. Generalized Efimov Scenario for Heavy-Light Mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blume, D.; Yan, Yangqian

    2014-11-01

    Motivated by recent experimental investigations of Cs-Cs-Li Efimov resonances, this work theoretically investigates the few-body properties of N -1 noninteracting identical heavy bosons, which interact with a light impurity through a large s -wave scattering length. For Cs-Cs-Cs-Li, we predict the existence of universal four-body states with energies E4(n ,1 ) and E4(n ,2 ), which are universally linked to the energy E3(n ) of the n th Efimov trimer. For infinitely large Cs 133 -Li 6 and vanishing Cs 133 -Cs 133 scattering lengths, we find (E4(1 ,1 )/E3(1 ))1 /2≈1.51 and (E4(1 ,2 )/E3(1 ))1/2≈1.01 . The Cs 133 -Li 6 scattering lengths at which these states merge with the four-atom threshold, the dependence of these energy ratios on the mass ratio between the heavy and light atoms, and selected aspects of the generalized Efimov scenario for N >4 are also discussed. Possible implications of our results for ongoing cold atom experiments are presented.

  9. Methodological advances: using greenhouses to simulate climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, F; Pascual, I; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Aguirreolea, J; Irigoyen, J J; Goicoechea, N; Antolín, M C; Oyarzun, M; Urdiain, A

    2014-09-01

    Human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. Related to this global warming, periods of low water availability are also expected to increase. Thus, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are three of the main factors related to climate change that potentially may influence crops and ecosystems. In this report, we describe the use of growth chamber - greenhouses (GCG) and temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG) to simulate climate change scenarios and to investigate possible plant responses. In the GCG, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are set to act simultaneously, enabling comparison of a current situation with a future one. Other characteristics of the GCG are a relative large space of work, fine control of the relative humidity, plant fertirrigation and the possibility of light supplementation, within the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) region and/or with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) light. In the TGG, the three above-mentioned factors can act independently or in interaction, enabling more mechanistic studies aimed to elucidate the limiting factor(s) responsible for a given plant response. Examples of experiments, including some aimed to study photosynthetic acclimation, a phenomenon that leads to decreased photosynthetic capacity under long-term exposures to elevated CO2, using GCG and TGG are reported.

  10. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  11. Vehicle tracking and classification in challenging scenarios via slice sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Marcos; Unzueta, Luis; Barandiaran, Javier; Cortés, Andoni; Otaegui, Oihana; Sánchez, Pedro

    2011-12-01

    This article introduces a 3D vehicle tracking system in a traffic surveillance environment devised for shadow tolling applications. It has been specially designed to operate in real time with high correct detection and classification rates. The system is capable of providing accurate and robust results in challenging road scenarios, with rain, traffic jams, casted shadows in sunny days at sunrise and sunset times, etc. A Bayesian inference method has been designed to generate estimates of multiple variable objects entering and exiting the scene. This framework allows easily mixing different nature information, gathering in a single step observation models, calibration, motion priors and interaction models. The inference of results is carried out with a novel optimization procedure that generates estimates of the maxima of the posterior distribution combining concepts from Gibbs and slice sampling. Experimental tests have shown excellent results for traffic-flow video surveillance applications that can be used to classify vehicles according to their length, width, and height. Therefore, this vision-based system can be seen as a good substitute to existing inductive loop detectors.

  12. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  13. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  14. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  15. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  16. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Md Akram Hussain

    2013-01-01

    other major cancer programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR′B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  17. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  18. EDITORIAL: Plasma Surface Interactions for Fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-01

    Because plasma-boundary physics encompasses some of the most important unresolved issues for both the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project and future fusion power reactors, there is a strong interest in the fusion community for better understanding and characterization of plasma wall interactions. Chemical and physical sputtering cause the erosion of the limiters/divertor plates and vacuum vessel walls (made of C, Be and W, for example) and degrade fusion performance by diluting the fusion fuel and excessively cooling the core, while carbon redeposition could produce long-term in-vessel tritium retention, degrading the superior thermo-mechanical properties of the carbon materials. Mixed plasma-facing materials are proposed, requiring optimization for different power and particle flux characteristics. Knowledge of material properties as well as characteristics of the plasma material interaction are prerequisites for such optimizations. Computational power will soon reach hundreds of teraflops, so that theoretical and plasma science expertise can be matched with new experimental capabilities in order to mount a strong response to these challenges. To begin to address such questions, a Workshop on New Directions for Advanced Computer Simulations and Experiments in Fusion-Related Plasma Surface Interactions for Fusion (PSIF) was held at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory from 21 to 23 March, 2005. The purpose of the workshop was to bring together researchers in fusion related plasma wall interactions in order to address these topics and to identify the most needed and promising directions for study, to exchange opinions on the present depth of knowledge of surface properties for the main fusion-related materials, e.g., C, Be and W, especially for sputtering, reflection, and deuterium (tritium) retention properties. The goal was to suggest the most important next steps needed for such basic computational and experimental work to be facilitated

  19. Asynchronous Session Types – Exceptions and Multiparty Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carbone, Marco; Yoshida, Nobuko; Honda, Kohei

    2009-01-01

    to capture many real scenarios, there are cases where they are not powerful enough for describing and validating interactions involving more complex scenarios. In this note, we shall explore two extensions of session types to interactional exceptions and multiparty session in presence of asynchronous...

  20. Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de Jilske Olda; Kok, Kasper; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine

    2017-01-01

    Literature critiques current predictive scenario approaches applied in the forest sector. Backcasting -a means to create normative scenarios- seems promising, but sparsely used. Combining backcasting with exploratory scenarios (combined scenario approach) seems appropriate to address these

  1. Inferring Evolutionary Scenarios for Protein Domain Compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedenhoeft, John; Krause, Roland; Eulenstein, Oliver

    Essential cellular processes are controlled by functional interactions of protein domains, which can be inferred from their evolutionary histories. Methods to reconstruct these histories are challenged by the complexity of reconstructing macroevolutionary events. In this work we model these events using a novel network-like structure that represents the evolution of domain combinations, called plexus. We describe an algorithm to find a plexus that represents the evolution of a given collection of domain histories as phylogenetic trees with the minimum number of macroevolutionary events, and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.

  2. The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and

  3. ECLIPSE: An integrated energy-economy model for climate policy and scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turton, Hal [Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2008-12-15

    This paper describes the development of the Energy and Climate Policy and Scenario Evaluation (ECLIPSE) model - a flexible integrated assessment tool for energy and climate change policy and scenario assessment. This tool builds on earlier efforts to link top-down and bottom-up models, and combines a macroeconomic energy demand model and a consumer-budget transport demand model with the technology-rich bottom-up energy and transport system model Energy Research and Investment Strategy (ERIS), and solves the models iteratively. Compared to previous efforts, ECLIPSE includes many new features, such as a more disaggregated production function, improved calibration and parameterization and separate modeling of passenger transport demand. The separate modeling of transportation makes ECLIPSE particularly well-suited to analyzing interactions between the transport sector and the broader energy market and economy. This paper presents results illustrating some features of the integrated model, compares technology deployment results with ECLIPSE and the bottom-up ERIS model, and briefly describes illustrative baseline and greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios to highlight some of the features of the framework outlined in this paper. A number of modeling and policy insights arising from this scenario analysis are discussed. (author)

  4. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  5. Methodological issues in product evaluation: the influence of testing environment and task scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Juergen; Sonderegger, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    This article examines the utility of two commonly used approaches in the evaluation of interactive consumer products: lab-based testing and single task scenarios. These are compared to two more complex and resource-demanding approaches (field-based testing and dual task scenarios) with regard to the test results they produce. An experiment with N = 80 users was carried out, employing a 2 (laboratory vs. field) by 2 (single task vs. dual task scenario) by 2 (on-product information: present vs. absent) between-subjects design. On-product information (advising users to save water and electricity during kettle usage) represented the intervention, of which the effects on user behaviour were compared under the different experimental conditions. The main finding was that the impact of on-product information on user behaviour was strongest in the lab-based testing environment using a single task scenario (i.e., most economical testing condition), compared to the three other experimental conditions. The work found similar effects for self-report measures. The findings of the study point to the risk that the effects of system redesign on user behaviour may be overestimated if low-fidelity testing approaches are employed. The relevance of these findings for other application areas is also discussed (e.g., design of warnings).

  6. Salmon Futures: Stakeholder-driven salmon management scenarios under changing environmental conditions on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trammell, E. J.; Krupa, M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the adaptive capacity of individuals within natural resource management agencies is a key component of assessing the vulnerability of salmon to future environmental change. We seek to explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula by exploring the drivers and implications of different salmon allocation scenarios through participatory workshops with managers. We present here the initial results from the first workshop, which explores the various drivers responsible for changes in salmon allocation. Ranging from global to local, and biophysical to socioeconomic, these drivers are also linked to specific actors in the region. These complex interactions comprise the Kenai Peninsula's social-ecological system and determine its ability to react to change. Using a stakeholder-driven scenario framework, we aim to: 1) explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies in the region by exploring and exposing managers to different but logically coherent salmon allocation scenarios; 2) build stakeholder confidence in the science of environmental change on the Kenai Peninsula; and 3) develop a decision support tool that helps regional resource managers better understand their changing environment. We utilize and present the scenario framework as a platform for integrating hydrologic, landscape, and cultural change information into actionable decisions, crafted by the stakeholders, so that landscape change on the Kenai becomes more coordinated.

  7. The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E A Kihn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

  8. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  9. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  10. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  11. Safety restraint systems in heavy truck rollover scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaats, P.M.A.; Coo, P.J.A. de

    2003-01-01

    Safety restraint systems have been widely applied in the passenger car industry. The heavy truck industry has followed along, integrating the seat belts in the seat system. The effectiveness of seat belts, in particular in rollover scenarios, was studied for a number of heavy truck rollover scenario

  12. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.; Raudsepp-Hearne, C.; Atkinson-Palombo, C.; Bohensky, E.; Boyd, E.; Cundill, G.; Fox, H.; Ingram, S.; Kok, K.; Spehar, S.; Tengö, M.; Timmer, D.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experien

  13. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various

  14. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  15. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  16. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  17. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edeling, W.N., E-mail: W.N.Edeling@tudelft.nl [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands); Cinnella, P., E-mail: P.Cinnella@ensam.eu [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Dwight, R.P., E-mail: R.P.Dwight@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  18. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  19. Scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Khan; L. Miranda Sara; J. Sydenstricker-Neto; C. Sutherland; M. Hordijk

    2015-01-01

    Scenario building and related analysis is useful in several fields, ranging from military and business planning to its more recent applications in addressing global challenges such as climate change or economic crises. This chapter provides an overview of scenario building in urban governance. It in

  20. Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.; Deursen, van W.; Beek, van E.; Beersma, J.; Erdbrink, C.D.; Os, van A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current a