WorldWideScience

Sample records for plasma-wall interaction scenarios

  1. Plasma-wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrisch, Rainer

    1978-01-01

    The plasma wall interactions for two extreme cases, the 'vacuum model' and the 'cold gas blanket' are outlined. As a first step for understanding the plasma wall interactions the elementary interaction processes at the first wall are identified. These are energetic ion and neutral particle trapping and release, ion and neutral backscattering, ion sputtering, desorption by ions, photons and electrons and evaporation. These processes have only recently been started to be investigated in the parameter range of interest for fusion research. The few measured data and their extrapolation into regions not yet investigated are reviewed

  2. Plasma-wall interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichle, R.

    2004-01-01

    This document gathers the 43 slides presented in the framework of the week long lecture 'hot plasmas 2004' and dedicated to plasma-wall interaction in a tokamak. This document is divided into 4 parts: 1) thermal load on the wall, power extraction and particle recovery, 2) basic edge plasma physics, 3) processes that drive the plasma-solid interaction, and 4) material conditioning (surface treatment...) for ITER

  3. Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berberich, Benjamin

    2012-03-01

    Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

  4. Bibliography on plasma-wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, J.

    1980-05-01

    Bibliography is compiled for the following subjects: (1) Plasma-wall interactions, general, (2) Sputtering, (3) Chemical sputtering, (4) Blistering, (5) Electron-impact desorption, (6) Thermal desorption and photo-desorption, (7) Emission of secondary electrons and ions, emission of photoelectrons, and material for getters, (8) Gas release and trapping, (9) Approach from surface diagnostics (review). The compilation has not been intended to be complete, but to give a first step toward a further study of the respective subjects. (author)

  5. Plasma-wall interactions in RFX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valisa, M.; Bartiromo, R.; Carraro, L.

    1999-01-01

    Plasma wall interactions become a crucial issue in the Reversed Field Pinch RFX at high current (>0.7 MA). Wall-Mode Locking (WML) leads to carbon bloom, enhanced recycling and makes the density control very difficult to achieve. Several wall conditioning techniques have improved the capability of controlling recycling, especially boronization with diborane, but at 1 MA of plasma current removal of the WML becomes mandatory. Encouraging results have been achieved by rotating an externally induced perturbation that can unlock the WML. The strong impurity screening mechanism found at intermediate current does not degrade significantly at 1 MA. Modification of the tiles geometry could further reduce the power density dissipation and mitigate the PWI. (author)

  6. Plasma-wall interactions in RFX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valisa, M.; Bartiromo, R.; Carraro, L.

    2001-01-01

    Plasma wall interactions become a crucial issue in the Reversed Field Pinch RFX at high current (>0.7 MA). Wall-Mode Locking (WML) leads to carbon bloom, enhanced recycling and makes the density control very difficult to achieve. Several wall conditioning techniques have improved the capability of controlling recycling, especially boronisation with diborane, but at 1 MA of plasma current removal of the WML becomes mandatory. Encouraging results have been achieved by rotating an externally induced perturbation that can unlock the WML. The strong impurity screening mechanism found at intermediate current does not degrade significantly at 1 MA. Modification of the tiles geometry could further reduce the power density dissipation and mitigate the PWI. (author)

  7. Tritium issues in plasma wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, T.

    2009-01-01

    In order to establish a D-T fusion reactor as an energy source, it is not enough to have a DT burning plasma, and economical conversion of fusion energy to electricity and/or heat, a large enough margin of tritium breeding and tritium safety must be simultaneously achieved. In particular, handling of huge amount of tritium needs a significant effort to ensure that the radiation dose of radiological workers and of the public is below the limits specified by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. For the safety reasons, tritium in a reactor will be limited to only a few kg orders in weight, with radioactivity up to 10 17 Bq. Since public exposure to tritium is regulated at a level as tiny as a few Bq/cm 2 , tritium must be strictly confined in a reactor system with accountancy of an order of pg (pico-gram). Generally qualitative analysis with the accuracy of more than 3 orders of magnitude is hardly possible. We are facing to lots of safety concerns in the handling of huge amounts of radioactive tritium as a fuel and to be bred in a blanket. In addition, tritium resources are very limited. Not only for the safety reason but also for the saving of tritium resources, tritium retention in a reactor must be kept as small as possible. In the present tokamaks, however, hydrogen retention is significantly large, i.e. more than 20% of fueled hydrogen is continuously piled up in the vacuum vessel, which must not be allowed in a reactor. After the introduction of tritium as a hydrogen radioisotope, this lecture will present tritium issues in plasma wall interactions, in particular, fueling, retention and recovering, considering the handling of large amounts of tritium, i.e. confinement, leakage, contamination, permeation, regulations and tritium accountancy. Progress in overcoming such problems will be also presented. This document is made of the slides of the presentation. (author)

  8. TEXTOR-project for plasma-wall-interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolf, G.

    1975-01-01

    A Tokamak TEXTOR is described which will be specifically designed to deliver a test bed for the study of plasma wall interaction. The motivation of this device and the reasons leading to the specific parameters are discussed. In a later stage of the TEXTOR project the implementation of divertors is foreseen

  9. Intense Magnetized Plasma-Wall Interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Bruno S. [UNR; Fuelling, Stephan [UNR

    2013-11-30

    This research project studied wall-plasma interactions relevant to fusion science. Such interactions are a critical aspect of Magneto-Inertial Fusion (MIF) because flux compression by a pusher material, in particular the metal for the liner approach to MIF, involves strong eddy current heating on the surface of the pusher, and probably interactions and mixing of the pusher with the interior fuel during the time when fusion fuel is being burned. When the pusher material is a metal liner, high-energy-density conditions result in fascinating behavior. For example, "warm dense matter" is produced, for which material properties such as resistivity and opacity are not well known. In this project, the transformation into plasma of metal walls subjected to pulsed megagauss magnetic fields was studied with an experiment driven by the UNR 1 MA Zebra generator. The experiment was numerically simulated with using the MHRDR code. This simple, fundamental high-energy-density physics experiment, in a regime appropriate to MIF, has stimulated an important and fascinating comparison of numerical modeling codes and tables with experiment. In addition, we participated in developing the FRCHX experiment to compress a field-reversed-configuration (FRC) plasma with a liner, in collaboration with researchers from Air Force Research Laboratory and Los Alamos National Lab, and we helped develop diagnostics for the Plasma Liner Experiment (PLX) at LANL. Last, but not least, this project served to train students in high-energy-density physics.

  10. Plasma-wall interaction of advanced materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.W. Coenen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available DEMO is the name for the first stage prototype fusion reactor considered to be the next step after ITER. For the realization of fusion energy especially materials questions pose a significant challenge already today. Advanced materials solution are under discussion in order to allow operation under reactor conditions [1] and are already under development used in the next step devices. Apart from issues related to material properties such as strength, ductility, resistance against melting and cracking one of the major issues to be tackled is the interaction with the fusion plasma. Advanced tungsten (W materials as discussed below do not necessarily add additional lifetime issues, they will, however, add concerns related to erosion or surface morphology changes due to preferential sputtering. Retention of fuel and exhaust species are one of the main concerns. Retention of hydrogen will be one of the major issues to be solved in advanced materials as especially composites and alloys will introduce new hydrogen interactions mechanisms. Initial calculations show these mechanisms. Especially for Helium as the main impurity species material issues arise related to surfaces modification and embrittlement. Solutions are proposed to mitigate effects on material properties and introduce new release mechanisms.

  11. Physics of plasma-wall interactions in controlled fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, D.E.; Behrisch, R.

    1984-01-01

    In the areas of plasma physics, atomic physics, surface physics, bulk material properties and fusion experiments and theory, the following topics are presented: the plasma sheath; plasma flow in the sheath and presheath of a scrape-off layer; probes for plasma edge diagnostics in magnetic confinement fusion devices; atomic and molecular collisions in the plasma boundary; physical sputtering of solids at ion bombardment; chemical sputtering and radiation enhanced sublimation of carbon; ion backscattering from solid surfaces; implantation, retention and release of hydrogen isotopes; surface erosion by electrical arcs; electron emission from solid surfaces;l properties of materials; plasma transport near material boundaries; plasma models for impurity control experiments; neutral particle transport; particle confinement and control in existing tokamaks; limiters and divertor plates; advanced limiters; divertor tokamak experiments; plasma wall interactions in heated plasmas; plasma-wall interactions in tandem mirror machines; and impurity control systems for reactor experiments

  12. Conference summary: Experiments in confinement and plasma-wall interaction and innovative confinement concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ninomiya, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results presented at the 20th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2004 in the sessions of confinement, plasma-wall interaction and innovative confinement concept. The highlights of the presentations are as follows. Long pulse operation with high beta and high bootstrap fraction much longer than the current diffusion time has been achieved. The discharge scenario optimization and its extrapolation towards ITER have progressed remarkably. Significant progress has been made in understanding of global confinement and transport physics. (author)

  13. Plasma-wall interaction and plasma facing materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Tetsuo; Miyahara, Akira.

    1990-01-01

    The recognition that plasma-wall interaction plays the essential role from both standpoints of energy balance and particle balance for realizing nuclear fusion reactors has become to prevail. However, on how each elementary process acts and what competitive effect the synthetic action brings about, the stage of doing the qualitative discussion has just come, and the quantitative investigation is the problem for the future. In this paper, the plasma-wall interaction as seen from the research field of plasma-facing materials is discussed centering around graphite materials which have been mostly used at present, and the present status of the research and development on the problems of impurities, hydrogen recycling and heat resistance and radiation resistance is mentioned. Moreover, the problems are pointed out, and the course for the future is looked for. The recent experiment with large tokamaks adopted graphite or carbon as the plasma-facing materials, and the reduction of metallic impurities in plasma showed the clear improvement of plasma confinement characteristics. However, for the next device which requires forced cooling, the usability of graphite is doubtful. (K.I.) 51 refs

  14. Sum frequency generation for studying plasma-wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roke, Sylvie

    2010-01-01

    Interaction of a plasma with a surface results in chemical and physical restructuring of the surface as well as the plasma in the vicinity of the surface. Studying such a reorganization of the atoms and molecules in the surface layer requires optical tools that can penetrate the plasma environment. At the same time, surface specificity is required. Sum Frequency Generation (SFG) is an optical method that fulfills these requirements. SFG has been developed into a surface specific probe during the eighties and nineties. Nowadays SFG is routinely applied in the research of complex interfaces. In such experiments, liquid/gas, solid/gas, solid/liquid, or liquid/liquid interfaces are probed, and the chemical surface composition, orientational distribution, order and chirality can be retrieved. An application to investigate plasma-wall interactions is feasible too.

  15. Plasma wall interaction and tritium retention in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, C.H.; Amarescu, E.; Ascione, G.

    1996-01-01

    The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been operating safely and routinely with deuterium-tritium fuel for more than two years. In this time, TFTR has produced an impressive number of record breaking results including core fusion power, ∼ 2 MW/m 3 , comparable to that expected for ITER. Advances in wall conditioning via lithium pellet injection have played an essential role in achieving these results. Deuterium-tritium operation has also provided a special opportunity to address the issues of tritium recycling and retention. Tritium retention over two years of operation was approximately 40%. Recently, the in-torus tritium inventory was reduced by half through a combination of glow discharge cleaning, moist-air soaks, and plasma discharge cleaning. The tritium inventory is not a constraint in continued operations. The authors present recent results from TFTR in the context of plasma wall interactions and deuterium-tritium issues

  16. Plasma wall interaction and tritium retention in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skinner, C.H.; Amarescu, E.; Ascione, G.

    1997-01-01

    The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) has been operating safely and routinely with deuterium-tritium fuel for more than two years. In this time, TFTR has produced a number of record breaking results including core fusion power, ∝2 MW/m 3 , comparable to that expected for ITER. Advances in wall conditioning via lithium pellet injection have played an essential role in achieving these results. Deuterium-tritium operation has also provided a special opportunity to address the issues of tritium recycling and retention. Tritium retention over two years of operation was approximately 40%. Recently the in-torus tritium inventory was reduced by half through a combination of glow discharge cleaning, moist-air soaks, and plasma discharge cleaning. The tritium inventory is not a constraint in continued operations. Recent results from TFTR in the context of plasma wall interactions and deuterium-tritium issues are presented. (orig.)

  17. Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction; Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Tree-Codes in Simulationsszenarios der Plasma-Wand-Wechselwirkung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berberich, Benjamin

    2012-03-15

    Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

  18. Shock-tube study of fusion plasma-wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, R.A.; Tien, J.K.; Jensen, B.; Panayotou, N.F.; Feinberg, B.

    1977-01-01

    Theoretical and experimental studies have been made of phenomena which occur when a hot (T 1 approximately equal to 6 x 10 6 0 K), dense (n approximately equal to 10 16 cm -3 ), deuterium plasma containing a transverse magnetic field is brought into sudden contact with a cold metal wall. These studies are motivated by the need to understand plasma and metallurgical conditions at the first-wall of a fusion reactor. Experiments were carried out in the Columbia high energy electromagnetic shock tube. Computational simulation was used to investigate the detailed physics of the fusion plasma boundary layer which develops at the wall. The rate of energy transfer from the plasma to the wall was calculated and conditions under which surface melting occurs are estimated. Experimental measurements of plasma-wall heat transfer rates up to 3 x 10 5 watts/cm 2 were obtained and agreement with computed values are good. Fusion reactor first-wall materials have been exposed to 6.0 x 10 21 eV cm -2 (1,000 shots) of deuterium plasma bombardment. Scanning electron micrograph photographs show preferential erosion at grain boundaries, formation of deuterium surface blisters, and evidence of local surface melting. Some cracking is observed along grain boundaries, and a decrease in tensile ductiity is measured

  19. Review of the works on plasma-wall interactions in fusion reactors, 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sone, Kazuho

    1975-09-01

    A review is made of the works on sputtering as one of the plasma-wall interactions in thermonuclear fusion devices. The present status and future problems are described mainly in experiments of low-energy light ions such as H + , H 2 + , D + , D 2 + and He + , heavy ions including self-ions, and fast neutrons for polycrystalline metal targets. (auth.)

  20. Edge plasmas and plasma/wall interactions in an ignition-class reversed field pinch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Werley, K.A.; Bathke, C.G.; Krakowski, R.A.

    1987-01-01

    A range of limiter, armor, and divertor options are examined as a means to minimize plasma/wall interactions for a high-power-density, ignition-class reversed field pinch. An open, toroidal-field divertor can operate at maximum powers, while isolating the core plasma from impurities and protecting the wall. 16 refs

  1. ELM-Induced Plasma Wall Interactions in DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudakov, D.L.; Boedo, J.A.; Yu, J.H.; Brooks, N.H.; Fenstermacher, M.E.; Groth, M.; Hollmann, E.M.; Lasnier, C.J.; McLean, A.G.; Moyer, R.A.; Stangeby, P.C.; Tynan, G.R.; Wampler, W.R.; Watkins, J.G.; West, W.P.; Wong, C.C.; Zeng, L.; Bastasz, R.J.; Buchenauer, D.; Whaley, J.

    2008-01-01

    Intense transient fluxes of particles and heat to the main chamber components induced by edge localized modes (ELMs) are of serious concern for ITER. In DIII-D, plasma interaction with the outboard chamber wall is studied using Langmuir probes and optical diagnostics including a fast framing camera. Camera data shows that ELMs feature helical filamentary structures localized at the low field side of the plasma and aligned with the local magnetic field. During the nonlinear phase of an ELM, multiple filaments are ejected from the plasma edge and propagate towards the outboard wall with velocities of 0.5-0.7 km/s. When reaching the wall, filaments result in 'hot spots'--regions of local intense plasma-material interaction (PMI) where the peak incident particle and heat fluxes are up to 2 orders of magnitude higher than those between ELMs. This interaction pattern has a complicated geometry and is neither toroidally nor poloidally symmetric. In low density/collisionality H-mode discharges, PMI at the outboard wall is almost entirely due to ELMs. In high density/collisionality discharges, contributions of ELMs and inter-ELM periods to PMI at the wall are comparable. A Midplane Material Evaluation Station (MiMES) has been recently installed in order to conduct in situ measurements of erosion/redeposition at the outboard chamber wall, including those caused by ELMs

  2. Magnum-PSI: A new plasma-wall interaction experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppers, W.; Eck, H. van; Scholten, J.

    2006-01-01

    The FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen is preparing the construction of Magnum-PSI, a magnetized (3 T), steady-state, large area (diameter 10 cm), high-flux plasma (10 24 ions m -2 s -1 generator. The aim of the linear plasma device Magnum-PSI is to provide a controlled, highly accessible laboratory experiment in which the interaction of a magnetized plasma with different surfaces can be studied in detail. Plasma parameters can be varied over a wide range, in particular covering the high-density, low-temperature conditions expected for the detached divertor plasma of ITER. The target set-up will be extremely flexible allowing the investigation of different materials under a large variety of conditions (temperatures, inclination, biasing, coatings, etc.). A range of target materials will be used, including carbon, tungsten and other metals, and mixed materials. Because of the large plasma beam of 10 cm diameter and spacious vacuum tank, even the test of whole plasma-facing component mock-ups will be possible. Dedicated diagnostics will be installed to allow for detailed studies of the fundamental physics and chemistry of plasma-surface interaction, such as erosion and deposition, hydrogen recycling, retention and removal, dust and layer formation, plasma sheath physics and heat loads (steady-state or transient). Magnum-PSI will be a unique experiment to address the ITER divertor physics which will essentially differ from present day Tokamak and/or linear plasma generator physics. In this contribution, we will present the pre-design of the Magnum-PSI experiment. We will discuss the requirements on the vacuum system, 3T superconducting magnet, plasma source, target manipulator and additional plasma heating. In addition, we will briefly introduce the plasma and surface diagnostics that will be used in the Magnum-PSI experiment. (author)

  3. Charge exchange signatures in x-ray line emission accompanying plasma-wall interaction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Renner, Oldřich; Dalimier, E.; Liska, R.; Oks, E.; Šmíd, Michal

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 397, č. 1 (2012), s. 1-6 ISSN 1742-6588 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/10/0814; GA ČR GAP208/10/2302; GA AV ČR IAAX00100903 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100523 Keywords : laser-produced plasma * particle jets generation * plasma-wall interaction * x-ray spectroscopy * charge exchange Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics

  4. Velocity gradient induced line splitting in x-ray emission accompanying plasma-wall interaction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Michal; Renner, Oldřich; Liska, R.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 125, Aug (2013), s. 38-44 ISSN 0022-4073 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP205/10/0814; GA ČR GAP205/11/0571 Institutional support: RVO:68378271 Keywords : laser-produced plasmas * x-ray spectroscopy * plasma-wall interaction * spectral line profiles * Doppler shift * ion velocity gradients Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 2.288, year: 2013

  5. Plasma edge and plasma-wall interaction modelling: Lessons learned from metallic devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wiesen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Robust power exhaust schemes employing impurity seeding are needed for target operational scenarios in present day tokamak devices with metallic plasma-facing components (PFCs. For an electricity-producing fusion power plant at power density Psep/R>15MW/m divertor detachment is a requirement for heat load mitigation. 2D plasma edge transport codes like the SOLPS code as well as plasma-wall interaction (PWI codes are key to disentangle relevant physical processes in power and particle exhaust. With increased quantitative credibility in such codes more realistic and physically sound estimates of the life-time expectations and performance of metallic PFCs can be accomplished for divertor conditions relevant for ITER and DEMO. An overview is given on the recent progress of plasma edge and PWI modelling activities for (carbon-free metallic devices, that include results from JET with the ITER-like wall, ASDEX Upgrade and Alcator C-mod. It is observed that metallic devices offer an opportunity to progress the understanding of underlying plasma physics processes in the edge. The validation of models can be substantially improved by eliminating carbon from the experiment as well as from the numerical system with reduced degrees of freedom as no chemical sputtering from amorphous carbon layers and no carbon or hydro-carbon transport are present. With the absence of carbon as the primary plasma impurity and given the fact that the physics of the PWI at metallic walls is less complex it is possible to isolate the crucial plasma physics processes relevant for particle and power exhaust. For a reliable 2D dissipative plasma exhaust model these are: cross-field drifts, complete kinetic neutral physics, geometry effects (including main-chamber, divertor and sub-divertor structures, SOL transport reflecting also the non-diffusive nature of anomalous transport, as well as transport within the pedestal region in case of significant edge impurity radiation

  6. Plasma-wall Interaction Studies in the Start-up Phase of TJ-II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De la Cal, E.; Tabares, F.L.; Tafalla, D.

    1998-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present some first plasma-wall interaction studies made during the first experimental campaign of TJ-II. The different sections contain independent contributions presented orally in the fusion division of the Euratom-Ciemat association during 1998: I. Density limit during the start-up phase of TJ-II : are we limited by radiation?. II. Temporal evolution of oxygen in the plasma during an experimental day. III. The contribution of helium to the plasma electron density IV. First studies of the S.O.L. diffusion coefficient and its dependence with the boundary plasma parameters. (Author) 3 refs

  7. Ion-surface interaction: simulation of plasma-wall interaction (ITER)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salou, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The wall materials of magnetic confinement in fusion machines are exposed to an aggressive environment; the reactor blanket is bombarded with a high flux of particles extracted from the plasma, leading to the sputtering of surface material. This sputtering causes wall erosion as well as plasma contamination problems. In order to control fusion reactions in complex reactors, it is thus imperative to well understand the plasma-wall interactions. This work proposes the study of the sputtering of fusion relevant materials. We propose to simulate the charged particles influx by few keV single-charged ion beams. This study is based on the catcher method; to avoid any problem of pollution (especially in the case of carbon) we designed a new setup allowing an in situ Auger electron spectroscopy analysis. The results provide the evolution of the angular distribution of the sputtering yield as a function of the ion mass (from helium to xenon) and its energy (from 3 keV to 9 keV). (author) [fr

  8. Plasma behavior and plasma-wall interaction in magnetic fusion divices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohtsuka, Hideo

    1984-10-01

    To study the fundamental behavior of plasma in magnetic field is the main subject in the early stage of the magnetic fusion research. At the next stage, it is necessary to overcome some actual problems in order to attain reactor grade plasmas. One of them is to control impurities in the plasma. In these points of view, we carried out several experiments or theoretical analyses. Firstly, anomalous loss mechanisms in magnetic field were investigated in a toroidal multipole device JFT-1 and the role of motions of charged particles in the magnetic field was exhibited. Various measurements of plasma in the scrape-off layer were made in a divertor tokamak JFT-2a and in an ordinary tokamak JFT-2. The former study demonstrated the first successful divertor operation of the tokamak device and the latter one clarified the mechanism of arcing on the tokamak first wall. As to arcing, a new theory which describes the retrograde motion, the well known strange motion of arcs in a magnetic field, was proposed. Good agreement with the experimental results was shown. Finally, by considering a zero-dimensional sputtering model a self-consistent relation between light and metal impurities in tokamak plasmas was obtained. It was shown that the relation well describes some fundamental aspects of the plasma-wall interaction. As a conclusion, the importance of simple behavior of charged particles in magnetic fields was pointed out not only for the plasma confinement but also for the plasma-wall interaction. (author)

  9. The plasma-wall interaction region: a key low temperature plasma for controlled fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Counsell, G F

    2002-01-01

    The plasma-wall interaction region of a fusion device provides the interface between the hot core plasma and the material surfaces. To obtain acceptably low levels of erosion from these surfaces requires most of the power leaving the core to be radiated. This is accomplished in existing devices by encouraging plasma detachment, in which the hot plasma arriving in the region is cooled by volume recombination and ion-neutral momentum transfer with a dense population of neutrals recycled from the surface. The result is a low temperature (1 eV e e >10 19 m -3 ) but weakly ionized (n 0 >10 20 m -3 , n e /n 0 <0.1) plasma found nowhere else in the fusion environment. This plasma provides many of the conditions found in industrial plasmas exploiting plasma chemistry and the presence of carbon in the region (in the form of carbon-fibre composite used in the plasma facing materials) can result in the formation of deposited hydrocarbon films. The plasma-wall interaction region is therefore among the most difficult in fusion to model, requiring an understanding of atomic, molecular and surface physics issues

  10. Diagnostic setup for investigation of plasma wall interactions at Wendelstein 7-X

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neubauer, Olaf; Biel, Wolfgang; Czymek, Guntram; Denner, Peter; Effenberg, Florian; Krämer-Flecken, Andreas; Liang, Yunfeng; Marchuk, Oleksandr; Offermanns, Guido; Rack, Michael; Samm, Ulrich; Schmitz, Oliver; Schweer, Bernd; Terra, Alexis

    2015-01-01

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We are investigating plasma wall interactions at Wendelstein 7-X stellarator. • Steady state operation and island divertor are unique. • We are developing diagnostics for divertor plasma and plasma facing surfaces. • A multi-purpose fast manipulator allows for exposure of probes and samples. • Versatile endoscopes allow for local divertor spectroscopy from IR to UV. - Abstract: Wendelstein 7-X being the most advanced stellarator is currently prepared for commissioning at Greifswald. Forschungszentrum Jülich is preparing a research programme in the field of plasma wall interactions (PWI) by developing a dedicated set of diagnostic systems. The specific interest at Wendelstein 7-X is to understand PWI processes in presence of a 3D plasma boundary of an island divertor. Furthermore, for the first time steady state plasma at high density and low temperature in the divertor region will be available. Since PWI only could be understood in conjunction with the edge plasma properties the aim of the setup is to observe both the edge plasma as well as surface processes. For optimum combination of different diagnostic methods the edge diagnostic systems are aligned toroidally along one out of five magnetic islands. Main systems are a multipurpose fast probe manipulator, two gas boxes in opposite divertor modules together with two endoscopes each observing the divertor regions, a poloidal correlation reflectometer, a dispersion interferometer in the divertor, and VUV and X-ray spectroscopy in the plasma core. The concept of the diagnostic setup is presented in this paper.

  11. Diagnostic setup for investigation of plasma wall interactions at Wendelstein 7-X

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neubauer, Olaf, E-mail: o.neubauer@fz-juelich.de [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Biel, Wolfgang; Czymek, Guntram; Denner, Peter [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Effenberg, Florian [University Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI (United States); Krämer-Flecken, Andreas; Liang, Yunfeng; Marchuk, Oleksandr; Offermanns, Guido; Rack, Michael; Samm, Ulrich [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich (Germany); Schmitz, Oliver [University Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI (United States); Schweer, Bernd [Laboratoire de Physique des Plasmas – Laboratorium voor Plasmafysica, ERM/KMS, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Terra, Alexis [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We are investigating plasma wall interactions at Wendelstein 7-X stellarator. • Steady state operation and island divertor are unique. • We are developing diagnostics for divertor plasma and plasma facing surfaces. • A multi-purpose fast manipulator allows for exposure of probes and samples. • Versatile endoscopes allow for local divertor spectroscopy from IR to UV. - Abstract: Wendelstein 7-X being the most advanced stellarator is currently prepared for commissioning at Greifswald. Forschungszentrum Jülich is preparing a research programme in the field of plasma wall interactions (PWI) by developing a dedicated set of diagnostic systems. The specific interest at Wendelstein 7-X is to understand PWI processes in presence of a 3D plasma boundary of an island divertor. Furthermore, for the first time steady state plasma at high density and low temperature in the divertor region will be available. Since PWI only could be understood in conjunction with the edge plasma properties the aim of the setup is to observe both the edge plasma as well as surface processes. For optimum combination of different diagnostic methods the edge diagnostic systems are aligned toroidally along one out of five magnetic islands. Main systems are a multipurpose fast probe manipulator, two gas boxes in opposite divertor modules together with two endoscopes each observing the divertor regions, a poloidal correlation reflectometer, a dispersion interferometer in the divertor, and VUV and X-ray spectroscopy in the plasma core. The concept of the diagnostic setup is presented in this paper.

  12. Plasma-wall interaction data needs critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-11-01

    The Division of Development and Technology has sponsored a four day US-Japan workshop ''Plasma-Wall Interaction Data Needs Critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)'', held at Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California on June 24 to 27, 1985. The workshop, which brought together fifty scientists and engineers from the United States, Japan, Germany, and Canada, considered the plasma-material interaction and high heat flux (PMI/HHF) issues for the next generation of magnetic fusion energy devices, the Burning Core Experiment (BCX). Materials options were ranked, and a strategy for future PMI/HHF research was formulated. The foundation for international collaboration and coordination of this research was also established. This volume contains the last three of the five technical sessions. The first of the three is on plasma materials interaction issues, the second is on research facilities and the third is from smaller working group meetings on graphite, beryllium, advanced materials and future collaborations

  13. Studies related to plasma-wall interactions in ITER - Final scientific report 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marot, L.

    2009-09-01

    In this final scientific report made by the University of Basel, Switzerland, on-going work on plasma-wall interactions in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ITER is reported on. The growing interest concerning the use of rhodium (Rh) as a material for the first mirrors in ITER and the necessity of using it as a thin film deposited on a polished substrate has necessitated the development of a robust deposition technique for the preparation of high-reflectivity mirrors. The realisation and tests of high-quality rhodium coated mirrors using magnetron sputtering is reported on. Also, the exposure of the rhodium and molybdenum coated mirrors in the Tokamak fusion reactor system is reported on and the role of carbon and tungsten impurities in the optical degradation of metallic mirrors is looked at. Optical measurements made at the Joint European Torus (JET) are also reported on

  14. Improvement of confinement characteristics of tokamak plasma by controlling plasma-wall interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sengoku, Seio

    1985-08-01

    Relation between plasma-wall interactions and confinement characteristics of a tokamak plasma with respect to both impurity and fuel particle controls is discussed. Following results are obtained from impurity control studies: (1) Ion sputtering is the dominant mechanism of impurity release in a steady state tokamak discharge. (2) By applying carbon coating on entire first wall of DIVA tokamak, dominant radiative region is concentrated more in boundary plasma resulting a hot peripheral plasma with cold boundary plasma. (3) A physical model of divertor functions about impurity control is empilically obtained. By a computer simulation based on above model with respect to divertor functions for JT-60 tokamak, it is found that the allowable electron temperature of the divertor plasma is not restricted by a condition that the impurity release due to ion sputtering does not increase continuously. (4) Dense and cold divertor plasma accompanied with strong remote radiative cooling was diagnosed along the magnetic field line in the simple poloidal divertor of DOUBLET III tokamak. Strong particle recycling region is found to be localized near the divertor plate. by and from particle control studies: (1) The INTOR scaling on energy confinement time is applicable to high density region when a core plasma is fueled directly by solid deuterium pellet injection in DOUBLET III tokamak. (2) As remarkably demonstrated by direct fueling with pellet injection, energy confinement characteristics can be improved at high density range by decreasing particle deposition at peripheral plasma in order to reduce plasma-wall interaction. (3) If the particle deposition at boundary layer is necessarily reduced, the electron temperature at the boundary or divertor region increases due to decrease of the particle recycling and the electron density there. (J.P.N.)

  15. Plasma-wall interaction data needs critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-11-01

    The Division of Development and Technology has sponsored a four day US-Japan workshop ''Plasma-Wall Interaction Data Needs Critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)'', held at Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California on June 24 to 27, 1985. The workshop, which brought together fifty scientists and engineers from the United States, Japan, Germany, and Canada, considered the plasma-material interaction and high heat flux (PMI/HHF) issues for the next generation of magnetic fusion energy devices, the Burning Core Experiment (BCX). Materials options were ranked, and a strategy for future PMI/HHF research was formulated. The foundation for international collaboration and coordination of this research was also established. This volume contains the first two of the five technical sessions. The first one being the BCX overview, the second on the BCX candidate materials. The remaining three sessions in volume two are on the plasma materials interaction issues, research facilities and small working group meeting on graphite, beryllium, advanced materials and future collaborations

  16. Plasma-wall interaction data needs critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-11-01

    The Division of Development and Technology has sponsored a four day US-Japan workshop ''Plasma-Wall Interaction Data Needs Critical to a Burning Core Experiment (BCX)'', held at Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California on June 24 to 27, 1985. The workshop, which brought together fifty scientists and engineers from the United States, Japan, Germany, and Canada, considered the plasma-material interaction and high heat flux (PMI/HHF) issues for the next generation of magnetic fusion energy devices, the Burning Core Experiment (BCX). Materials options were ranked, and a strategy for future PMI/HHF research was formulated. The foundation for international collaboration and coordination of this research was also established. This volume contains the last three of the five technical sessions. The first of the three is on plasma materials interaction issues, the second is on research facilities and the third is from smaller working group meetings on graphite, beryllium, advanced materials and future collaborations.

  17. Edge and Plasma -Wall Interaction Diagnostics in the TJ-II Stellarator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabares, F. L.; Tafalla, D.; Branas, B.; Hidalgo, A.; Garcia-Cortes, I.; Lopez-Fraguas, A.; Ortiz, P.

    2003-07-01

    The operation of the TJ-II stellarator, carried out under ECR heating conditions until now, the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important , has implieda careful control of partied e sources and the associated plasma-wall interaction processes. A clear coupling between the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important effort has been devoted to the development of dedicated diagnostics in both fields. Remarkable success has been attained in the development of atomic-beam based edge diagnostics, namely, thermal Li and supersonic He beams. In particular, fast (up to 200 Hz) sampling of temperature and density profiles has been made possible thorough an upgraded version of the pulsed, supersonic He beam diagnostic. In this paper, whorl devoted to the upgrading of these techniques is described. Also, preliminary experiments oriented to the validation of the collisional radiative models use din the beam-based diagnostic interpretaron as well as simulations of Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) studies of level populations of electronically excited He atoms are shown. (Author) 17 refs.

  18. NATO Advanced Study Institute entitled Physics of Plasma-Wall Interactions in Controlled Fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Behrisch, R; Physics of plasma-wall interactions in controlled fusion

    1986-01-01

    Controlled thermonuclear fusion is one of the possible candidates for long term energy sources which will be indispensable for our highly technological society. However, the physics and technology of controlled fusion are extremely complex and still require a great deal of research and development before fusion can be a practical energy source. For producing energy via controlled fusion a deuterium-tritium gas has to be heated to temperatures of a few 100 Million °c corres­ ponding to about 10 keV. For net energy gain, this hot plasma has to be confined at a certain density for a certain time One pro­ mising scheme to confine such a plasma is the use of i~tense mag­ netic fields. However, the plasma diffuses out of the confining magnetic surfaces and impinges on the surrounding vessel walls which isolate the plasma from the surrounding air. Because of this plasma wall interaction, particles from the plasma are lost to the walls by implantation and are partially reemitted into the plasma. In addition, wall...

  19. Application of laser resonance scattering to the study of high-temperature plasma-wall interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maeda, Mitsuo; Muraoka, Katsunori; Hamamoto, Makoto; Akazaki, Masanori; Miyazoe, Yasushi

    1981-01-01

    Studies on laser resonance scattering and its application to the study of high-temperature plasma-wall interaction are reviewed. The application of dye laser beam to resonant scattering method has been developed. This method is able to detect low density atoms. The fluorescent photon counts can be estimated for a two-level system and a three-level system. The S/N ratio, Which is in close connection with the detection limit, has been estimated. The doppler effect due to the thermal motion of atoms is taken into consideration. The calibration of the absolute number of atoms is necessary. Tunable coherent light is used as the light source for resonance scattering method. This is able to excite atoms strongly and to increase the detection efficiency. As dye lasers, a N 2 laser, a YAG laser, and a KrF excimer laser have been studied. In VUV region, rare gas or rare gas halide lasers can be used. The strong output power can be expected when the resonance lines of atoms meet the synchronizing region of the excimer laser. The resonance scattering method is applied to the detection of impurity metal atoms in plasma. The studies of laser systems for the detection of hydrogen atoms are also in progress. (Kato, T.)

  20. Edge and Plasma-Wall Interaction Diagnostics in the TJ-II Stellarator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tabares, F.L.; Tafalla, D.; Branas, B.; Hidalgo, A.; Garcia-Cortes, I.; Lopez-Fraguas, A.; Ortiz, P.

    2003-01-01

    The operation of the TJ-II stellarator, carried out under ECR heating conditions until now, the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important, has implied a careful control of partied e sources and the associated plasma-wall interaction processes. A clear coupling between the plasma edge parameters and those processes has been identified. Therefore, an important effort has been devoted to the development of dedicated diagnostics in both fields. Remarkable success has been attained in the development of atomic-beam based edge diagnostics, namely, thermal Li and supersonic He beams. In particular, fast (up to 200 Hz) sampling of temperature and density profiles has been made possible thorough an upgraded version of the pulsed, supersonic He beam diagnostic. In this paper, whorl devoted to the upgrading of these techniques is described. Also, preliminary experiments oriented to the validation of the collisional radiative models used in the beam-based diagnostic interpretaron as well as simulations of Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF) studies of level populations of electronically excited He atoms are shown. (Author) 17 refs

  1. ICRF specific plasma wall interactions in JET with the ITER-like wall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bobkov, Vl., E-mail: bobkov@ipp.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching (Germany); Arnoux, G. [Culham Science Centre, Association EURATOM-CCFE, Abingdon, Oxon (United Kingdom); Brezinsek, S.; Coenen, J.W. [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Association EURATOM-FZJ (Germany); Colas, L. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 St. Paul-lez-Durance (France); Clever, M. [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Association EURATOM-FZJ (Germany); Czarnecka, A. [Association EURATOM-IPPLM, Hery 23, 01-497 Warsaw (Poland); Braun, F.; Dux, R. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching (Germany); Huber, A. [Institute of Energy and Climate Research, Association EURATOM-FZJ (Germany); Jacquet, P. [Culham Science Centre, Association EURATOM-CCFE, Abingdon, Oxon (United Kingdom); Klepper, C. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 St. Paul-lez-Durance (France); Lerche, E. [LPP-ERM/KMS, Association Euratom-Belgian State, TEC Partners, Brussels (Belgium); Maggi, C. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching (Germany); Marcotte, F. [CEA, IRFM, F-13108 St. Paul-lez-Durance (France); Maslov, M.; Matthews, G.; Mayoral, M.L. [Culham Science Centre, Association EURATOM-CCFE, Abingdon, Oxon (United Kingdom); McCormick, K. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, EURATOM Association, Garching (Germany); Meigs, A. [Culham Science Centre, Association EURATOM-CCFE, Abingdon, Oxon (United Kingdom); and others

    2013-07-15

    A variety of plasma wall interactions (PWIs) during operation of the so-called A2 ICRF antennas is observed in JET with the ITER-like wall. Amongst effects of the PWIs, the W content increase is the most significant, especially at low plasma densities. No increase of W source from the main divertor and entrance of the outer divertor during ICRF compared to NBI phases was found by means of spectroscopic and WI (400.9 nm) imaging diagnostics. In contrary, the W flux there is higher during NBI. Charge exchange neutrals of hydrogen isotopes could be excluded as considerable contributors to the W source. The high W content in ICRF heated limiter discharges suggests the possibility of other W sources than the divertor alone. Dependencies of PWIs to individual ICRF antennas during q{sub 95}-scans, and intensification of those for the −90° phasing, indicate a link between the PWIs and the antenna near-fields. The PWIs include heat loads and Be sputtering pattern on antenna limiters. Indications of some PWIs at the outer divertor entrance are observed which do not result in higher W flux compared to the NBI phases, but are characterized by small antenna-specific (up to 25% with respect to ohmic phases) bipolar variations of WI emission. The first TOPICA calculations show a particularity of the A2 antennas compared to the ITER antenna, due to the presence of long antenna limiters in the RF image current loop and thus high near-fields across the most part of the JET outer wall.

  2. Studies on first wall and plasma wall interaction in JT-60

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Hiroo

    1988-12-01

    This paper describes studies on first wall and plasma wall interaction in JT-60. Main results are as follows; (1) To select JT-60 first wall material, various RandD were done in FY1975 ∼ 1976. Mo was selected as first wall materials of limiters and divertor plates because of its reliability under a high heat flux condition. (2) Development of low-Z material has been done to reduce impurity problem of Mo first wall. As a result, titanium carbide (TiC) was selected as a coating material on the Mo. High heat load testing has been done for TiC coated Mo limiter same as JT-60. This material can survive under the condition of 1 kW/cm 2 x 10 s, expected in JT-60 limiter design. (3) To reduce high heat load on the divertor plate, separatrix swing is proposed. Optimum frequency of the sweeping is evaluated to be 2 Hz in JT-60. For a discharge with heating power of 30 MW and duration time of 10 s, in addition to the separatrix swing, remote radiative cooling in the divertor region is necessary. Moreover, calculations of erosion thickness have been done for stainless steel, Mo, graphite, TiC and silicon caibide under high heat flux during plasma disruption. (4) In divertor experiments in JT-60, divertor functions on particle, heat load and impurity controls have been demonstrated. In elctron density of 6 x 10 19 m -3 , particle fueling rate of 20 MW NB heating (3 Pa m 3 /s) can be exhausted by divertor pumping system. Effectiveness of remote radiative cooling is demonstrated under the condition of 20 MW NB heating power. Also, separatrix swing is demonstrated to reduce heat load on the divertor plate. Total radiation in main plasma is 5 ∼ 10% of total absorbed power. (author) 120 refs

  3. Plasma Wall Interaction Phenomena on Tungsten Armour Materials for Fusion Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uytdenhouwen, I.; Massaut, V.; Linke, J.; Van Oost, G.

    2008-01-01

    One of the most attractive future complements to present energy sources is nuclear fusion. A large progress was made throughout the last decade from both the physical as the technological area leading to the construction of the ITER machine. One of the key issues that recently received a large interest at international level is focused on the Plasma Wall Interaction (PWI). One of the promising Plasma Facing Materials (PFM) are Tungsten (W) and Tungsten alloys. However, despite the worldwide use and industrial availability of W, the database of physical and mechanical properties is very limited. Especially after fusion relevant neutron irradiation and PWI phenomena, most of the properties are still unknown. The plasma fuel consists out of deuterium (D) and tritium (T). Tritium is radio-active and therefore an issue from the safety point of view. During steady-state plasma operation of future fusion power plants, the PFM need to extract a power density of ∼10-20 MW/m 2 . On top of this heat, transient events will deposit an additional non-negligible amount of energy (Disruptions, Vertical Displacement Events, Edge Localized Modes) during short durations. These severe heat loads cause cracking and even melting of the surface resulting in a reduced lifetime and the creation of dust. A contribution to the understanding of cracking phenomena under the severe thermal loads is described as well as the properties degradation under neutron irradiation. Several W grades were irradiated in the BR2 reactor (SCK.CEN) and the thermal loads were simulated with the electron-beam facility JUDITH (FZJ). Since knowledge should be gained about the Tritium retention in the PFM for safety and licensing reasons, a unique test facility at SCK.CEN is being set-up. The plasmatron VISION-I will simulate steady state plasmas for Tritium retention studies. The formation of surface cracks and dust, the initial porosity, neutron induced traps, re-deposited material - change the Tritium

  4. Plasma Wall Interaction Phenomena on Tungsten Armour Materials for Fusion Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uytdenhouwen, I. [SCK.CEN - The Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Institute for Nuclear Materials Science, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol (Belgium); Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, EURATOM-association, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Massaut, V. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Linke, J. [Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, EURATOM-association, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Van Oost, G. [Department of Applied Physics, Ghent University, Rozier 44, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2008-07-01

    One of the most attractive future complements to present energy sources is nuclear fusion. A large progress was made throughout the last decade from both the physical as the technological area leading to the construction of the ITER machine. One of the key issues that recently received a large interest at international level is focused on the Plasma Wall Interaction (PWI). One of the promising Plasma Facing Materials (PFM) are Tungsten (W) and Tungsten alloys. However, despite the worldwide use and industrial availability of W, the database of physical and mechanical properties is very limited. Especially after fusion relevant neutron irradiation and PWI phenomena, most of the properties are still unknown. The plasma fuel consists out of deuterium (D) and tritium (T). Tritium is radio-active and therefore an issue from the safety point of view. During steady-state plasma operation of future fusion power plants, the PFM need to extract a power density of {approx}10-20 MW/m{sup 2}. On top of this heat, transient events will deposit an additional non-negligible amount of energy (Disruptions, Vertical Displacement Events, Edge Localized Modes) during short durations. These severe heat loads cause cracking and even melting of the surface resulting in a reduced lifetime and the creation of dust. A contribution to the understanding of cracking phenomena under the severe thermal loads is described as well as the properties degradation under neutron irradiation. Several W grades were irradiated in the BR2 reactor (SCK.CEN) and the thermal loads were simulated with the electron-beam facility JUDITH (FZJ). Since knowledge should be gained about the Tritium retention in the PFM for safety and licensing reasons, a unique test facility at SCK.CEN is being set-up. The plasmatron VISION-I will simulate steady state plasmas for Tritium retention studies. The formation of surface cracks and dust, the initial porosity, neutron induced traps, re-deposited material - change the Tritium

  5. Plasma equilibrium control during slow plasma current quench with avoidance of plasma-wall interaction in JT-60U

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshino, R.; Nakamura, Y.; Neyatani, Y.

    1997-08-01

    In JT-60U a vertical displacement event (VDE) is observed during slow plasma current quench (Ip quench) for a vertically elongated divertor plasma with a single null. The VDE is generated by an error in the feedback control of the vertical position of the plasma current centre (ZJ). It has been perfectly avoided by improving the accuracy of the ZJ measurement in real time. Furthermore, plasma-wall interaction has been avoided successfully during slow Ip quench owing to the good performance of the plasma equilibrium control system

  6. Installation of a Plasmatron at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre and its Use for Plasma-Wall Interaction Studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uytdenhouwen, I.; Schuurmans, J.; Decreton, M.; Massaut, V.; Oost, G. van

    2008-01-01

    In JET and ITER, the first wall will be covered by beryllium and a full or partial W divertor will be common. In DEMO, only high-Z, low erosion material such as tungsten will be present as a plasma facing material. In present day tokamaks, the very high fluence/low temperature plasma cannot be obtained. Important key issues to be resolved according to plasma wall interaction studies are the tritium retention, dust production, resilience to large steady-state fluences, transient loads, surface erosion, material redeposition and neutron damage. Some linear plasma simulators come close to the very high fluences expected in ITER and DEMO such as PSI -2; PISCES-B; NAGDIS-II and pilot-PSI. In future the larger device MAGNUM-PSI will have even higher fluences and lower temperatures for large scale components. The plasmatron facility VISION I to be installed in Mol, will have the capability to investigate mixed materials (with beryllium/tritium contaminations) and in the long term neutron activated samples. The ETHEL plasmatron VISION I from JRC-Ispra was transferred to SCKCEN (Mol, Belgium) recently. The equipment is meant to study plasma-wall interaction, in particular the interaction with hydrogen isotopes. The facility is capable to produce relatively cold self-sustained volumetric plasmas with a high plasma flux density at the target of about 10 20 -10 21 ions/m 2 .s. The plasmatron has a volume of 18 litres, a target diameter of ∼25 cm and modular ion energies in the range of 20-500 eV

  7. Report on the joint meeting of the Division of Development and Technology Plasma Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components task groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nygren, R.E.

    1992-04-01

    The Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups typically hold a joint meeting each year to provide a forum for discussion of technical issues of current interest as well as an opportunity for program reviews by the Department of Energy (DOE). At the meeting in September 1990, reported here, research programs in support of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) were highlighted. The first part of the meeting was devoted to research and development (R ampersand D) for ITER on plasma facing components plus introductory presentations on some current projects and design studies. The balance of the meeting was devoted to program reviews, which included presentations by most of the participants in the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Programs with activities related to plasma wall interactions. The Task Groups on Plasma/Wall Interaction and on High Heat Flux Materials and Components were chartered as continuing working groups by the Division of Development and Technology in DOE's Magnetic Fusion Program. This report is an addition to the series of ''blue cover'' reports on the Joint Meetings of the Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups. Among several preceding meetings were those in October 1989 and January 1988

  8. Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

    1989-01-01

    The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA-BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Z eff to ≅ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance. (orig.)

  9. Global modelling of plasma-wall interaction in reversed field pinches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagatin, M.; Costa, S.; Ortolani, S.

    1989-04-01

    The impurity production and deuterium recycling mechanisms in ETA—BETA II and RFX are firstly discussed by means of a simple model applicable to a stationary plasma interacting with the wall. This gives the time constant and the saturation values of the impurity concentration as a function of the boundary temperature and density. If the latter is sufficiently high, the impurity buildup in the main plasma becomes to some extent stabilized by the shielding effect of the edge. A self-consistent global model of the time evolution of an RFP plasma interacting with the wall is then described. The bulk and edge parameters are derived by solving the energy and particle balance equations incorporating some of the basic plasma-surface processes, such as sputtering, backscattering and desorption. The application of the model to ETA-BETA II confirms the impurity concentrations of the light and metal impurities as well as the time evolution of the average electron density found experimentally under different conditions. The model is then applied to RFX, a larger RFP experiment under construction, whose wall will be protected by a full graphite armour. The time evolution of the discharge shows that carbon sputtering could increase Zeff to ~ 4, but without affecting significantly the plasma performance.

  10. Present status of plasma-wall interactions research and materials development activities in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirooka, Y.; Conn, R.W.

    1989-08-01

    It is well known in the fusion engineering community that the plasma confinement performance in magnetic fusion devices is strongly affected by edge-plasma interactions with surface components. These plasma-material interactions (PMI) include fuel particle recycling and impurity generation both during normal and off-normal operation. To understand and then to control PMI effects, considerable effort has been made, particularly over the last decade in US, supported by Department of Energy, Division of Development and Technology. Also, because plasma-facing components are generally expected to receive significant amount of heat due to plasma bombardment and run-away electrons, materials must tolerate high-heat fluxes (HHF). The HHF-component research has been conducted in parallel with PMI research. One strong motivation for these research activities is that DT-burning experiments are currently planned in the Tokamak Test Fusion Reactor (TFTR) in early 1990s. Several different but mutually complementary approaches have been taken in the PMI+HHF research. The first approach is to conduct PMI experiments using toroidal fusion devices such as TFTR. The second one is to simulate elemental processes involved in PMI using ion beams and electron beams, etc. The last one but not least is to use non-tokamak plasma facilities. Along with these laboratory activities, new materials have been developed and evaluated from the PMI+HHF point of view. In this paper, several major PMI+HHF research facilities in US and their activities are briefly reviewed. 21 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  11. 3. IAEA research co-ordination meeting on atomic and plasma-wall interaction data for fusion reactor divertor modeling. Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janev, R.K.

    1999-04-01

    A brief description of the proceedings and the conclusions of the 3rd Research Co-ordination Meeting on 'Atomic and Plasma-Wall Interaction Data for Fusion Reactor Divertor Modeling', held on March 8-9, 1999, at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, Austria, is provided. The reports on the activities within the individual projects pertinent to the IAEA Co-ordinated Research program with the same title are given as appendix to the present report. (author)

  12. Plasma-Wall Interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, J; Chen, J L [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Guo, H Y [Tri Alpha Energy (United States); Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); McCracken, G M [Culham Science Centre, UKAEA, Abingdon (United Kingdom)

    2012-09-15

    The problem of impurities in fusion plasmas has been recognized since the beginning of the fusion programme. Early experiments in glass vacuum vessels released gas from the wall to such an extent that the radiation from the impurities prevented the plasma from being heated above about 50 eV. The radiative power loss is principally due to line radiation from partially stripped ions, which is particularly a problem during the plasma startup phase. Another problem is fuel dilution, which arises because impurity atoms produce many electrons and, for a given plasma pressure, these electrons take the place of fuel particles. Impurities can also lead to disruptions, as a result of edge cooling and consequent current profile modification. The fractional impurity level which radiates 10% of the total thermonuclear power for a 10 keV plasma is 50% for helium, 7% for carbon, and less than 0.1% for molybdenum. Clearly, impurities of low atomic number are a much less serious problem than those of high atomic number. (author)

  13. Report on the joint meeting of the Division of Development and Technology Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, K.L.

    1985-10-01

    This report of the Joint Meeting of the Division of Development and Technology Plasma/Wall Interaction and High Heat Flux Materials and Components Task Groups contains contributing papers in the following areas: Plasma/Materials Interaction Program and Technical Assessment, High Heat Flux Materials and Components Program and Technical Assessment, Pumped Limiters, Ignition Devices, Program Planning Activities, Compact High Power Density Reactor Requirements, Steady State Tokamaks, and Tritium Plasma Experiments. All these areas involve the consideration of High Heat Flux on Materials and the Interaction of the Plasma with the First Wall. Many of the Test Facilities are described as well

  14. Active particle control experiments and critical particle flux discriminating between the wall pumping and fuelling in the compact plasma wall interaction device CPD spherical tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zushi, H.; Sakamoto, M.; Yoshinaga, T.; Higashizono, Y.; Hanada, K.; Yoshida, N.; Tokunaga, K.; Kawasaki, S.; Sato, K. N.; Nakamura, K.; Idei, H.; Hirooka, Y.; Bhattacharyay, R.; Okamoto, K.; Miyazaki, T.; Honma, H.; Nakashima, Y.; Nishino, N.; Kado, S.; Shikama, T.

    2009-01-01

    Two approaches associated with wall recycling have been performed in a small spherical tokamak device CPD (compact plasma wall interaction experimental device), that is, (1) demonstration of active particle recycling control, namely, 'active wall pumping' using a rotating poloidal limiter whose surface is continuously gettered by lithium and (2) a basic study of the key parameters which discriminates between 'wall pumping and fuelling'. For the former, active control of 'wall pumping' has been demonstrated during 50 kW RF current drive discharges whose pulse length is typically ∼300 ms. Although the rotating limiter is located at the outer board, as soon as the rotating drum is gettered with lithium, hydrogen recycling measured with H α spectroscopy decreases by about a factor of 3 not only near the limiter but also in the centre stack region. Also, the oxygen impurity level measured with O II spectroscopy is reduced by about a factor of 3. As a consequence of the reduced recycling and impurity level, RF driven current has nearly doubled at the same vertical magnetic field. For the latter, global plasma wall interaction with plasma facing components in the vessel is studied in a simple torus produced by electron cyclotron waves with I p -4 to ∼0.1 x 10 -4 Torr during the experimental campaign (∼3000 shots). In the wall pumping pressure range the wall pumping fraction is reduced with increasing surface temperature up to 150 deg. C.

  15. Plasma-wall interactions data compendium-1. ''Hydrogen retention property, diffusion and recombination coefficients database for selected plasma-facing materials''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwakiri, Hirotomo [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Matsuhiro, Kenjirou [Osaka Univ., Osaka (Japan); Hirooka, Yoshi [National Inst. for Fusion Science, Toki, Gifu (Japan); Yamamura, Yasunori [Okayama Univ. of Scinece, Okayama (Japan)

    2002-05-01

    A summary on the recent activities of the plasma-wall interactions database task group at the National Institute for Fusion Science is presented in this report. These activities are focused on the compilation of literature data on the key parameters related to wall recycling characteristics that affect dynamic particle balance during plasma discharges and also on-site tritium inventory. More specifically, in this task group a universal fitting formula has been proposed and successfully applied to help compile hydrogen implantation-induced retention data. Also, presented here are the data on hydrogen diffusion and surface recombination coefficients, both critical in modeling dynamic wall recycling behavior. Data compilation has been conducted on beryllium, carbon, tungsten and molybdenum, all currently used for plasma-facing components in magnetic fusion experiments. (author)

  16. Study of plasma wall interactions in the long-pulse NB-heated discharges of JT-60U towards steady-state operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takenaga, H.; Asakura, N.; Higashijima, S.; Nakano, T.; Kubo, H.; Konoshima, S.; Oyama, N.; Isayama, A.; Ide, S.; Fujita, T.; Miura, Y.

    2005-01-01

    Long time scale variation of plasma-wall interactions and its impact on particle balance, main plasma performance and particle behavior have been investigated in ELMy H-mode plasmas by extending the discharge pulse and the neutral beam heating pulse to 65 s and 30 s, respectively. The wall pumping rate starts to decrease in the latter phase by repeating the long-pulse discharges with 60% of Greenwald density sustained by gas-puffing. After several discharges, the wall inventory is saturated in the latter phase and, consequently, the density increases with neutral beam fuelling only. The edge pressure in the main plasma is reduced and ELMs are close to the type III regime under conditions of wall saturation. The intensities of C II emission near the X-point and CD band emission in the inner divertor start to increase before the wall saturates and continue to increase after the wall is saturated

  17. Modelling of plasma-antenna coupling and non-linear radio frequency wave-plasma-wall interactions in the magnetized plasma device under ion cyclotron range of frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, LingFeng

    2016-01-01

    Ion Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ICRH) by waves in 30-80 MHz range is currently used in magnetic fusion plasmas. Excited by phased arrays of current straps at the plasma periphery, these waves exist under two polarizations. The Fast Wave tunnels through the tenuous plasma edge and propagates to its center where it is absorbed. The parasitically emitted Slow Wave only exists close to the launchers. How much power can be coupled to the center with 1 A current on the straps? How do the emitted radiofrequency (RF) near and far fields interact parasitically with the edge plasma via RF sheath rectification at plasma-wall interfaces? To address these two issues simultaneously, in realistic geometry over the size of ICRH antennas, this thesis upgraded and tested the Self-consistent Sheaths and Waves for ICH (SSWICH) code. SSWICH couples self-consistently RF wave propagation and Direct Current (DC) plasma biasing via non-linear RF and DC sheath boundary conditions (SBCs) at plasma/wall interfaces. Its upgrade is full wave and was implemented in two dimensions (toroidal/radial). New SBCs coupling the two polarizations were derived and implemented along shaped walls tilted with respect to the confinement magnetic field. Using this new tool in the absence of SBCs, we studied the impact of a density decaying continuously inside the antenna box and across the Lower Hybrid (LH) resonance. Up to the memory limits of our workstation, the RF fields below the LH resonance changed with the grid size. However the coupled power spectrum hardly evolved and was only weakly affected by the density inside the box. In presence of SBCs, SSWICH-FW simulations have identified the role of the fast wave on RF sheath excitation and reproduced some key experimental observations. SSWICH-FW was finally adapted to conduct the first electromagnetic and RF-sheath 2D simulations of the cylindrical magnetized plasma device ALINE. (author) [fr

  18. Plasma-wall interaction studies within the EUROfusion consortium: progress on plasma-facing components development and qualification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezinsek, S.; Coenen, J. W.; Schwarz-Selinger, T.; Schmid, K.; Kirschner, A.; Hakola, A.; Tabares, F. L.; van der Meiden, H. J.; Mayoral, M.-L.; Reinhart, M.; Tsitrone, E.; Ahlgren, T.; Aints, M.; Airila, M.; Almaviva, S.; Alves, E.; Angot, T.; Anita, V.; Arredondo Parra, R.; Aumayr, F.; Balden, M.; Bauer, J.; Ben Yaala, M.; Berger, B. M.; Bisson, R.; Björkas, C.; Bogdanovic Radovic, I.; Borodin, D.; Bucalossi, J.; Butikova, J.; Butoi, B.; Čadež, I.; Caniello, R.; Caneve, L.; Cartry, G.; Catarino, N.; Čekada, M.; Ciraolo, G.; Ciupinski, L.; Colao, F.; Corre, Y.; Costin, C.; Craciunescu, T.; Cremona, A.; De Angeli, M.; de Castro, A.; Dejarnac, R.; Dellasega, D.; Dinca, P.; Dittmar, T.; Dobrea, C.; Hansen, P.; Drenik, A.; Eich, T.; Elgeti, S.; Falie, D.; Fedorczak, N.; Ferro, Y.; Fornal, T.; Fortuna-Zalesna, E.; Gao, L.; Gasior, P.; Gherendi, M.; Ghezzi, F.; Gosar, Ž.; Greuner, H.; Grigore, E.; Grisolia, C.; Groth, M.; Gruca, M.; Grzonka, J.; Gunn, J. P.; Hassouni, K.; Heinola, K.; Höschen, T.; Huber, S.; Jacob, W.; Jepu, I.; Jiang, X.; Jogi, I.; Kaiser, A.; Karhunen, J.; Kelemen, M.; Köppen, M.; Koslowski, H. R.; Kreter, A.; Kubkowska, M.; Laan, M.; Laguardia, L.; Lahtinen, A.; Lasa, A.; Lazic, V.; Lemahieu, N.; Likonen, J.; Linke, J.; Litnovsky, A.; Linsmeier, Ch.; Loewenhoff, T.; Lungu, C.; Lungu, M.; Maddaluno, G.; Maier, H.; Makkonen, T.; Manhard, A.; Marandet, Y.; Markelj, S.; Marot, L.; Martin, C.; Martin-Rojo, A. B.; Martynova, Y.; Mateus, R.; Matveev, D.; Mayer, M.; Meisl, G.; Mellet, N.; Michau, A.; Miettunen, J.; Möller, S.; Morgan, T. W.; Mougenot, J.; Mozetič, M.; Nemanič, V.; Neu, R.; Nordlund, K.; Oberkofler, M.; Oyarzabal, E.; Panjan, M.; Pardanaud, C.; Paris, P.; Passoni, M.; Pegourie, B.; Pelicon, P.; Petersson, P.; Piip, K.; Pintsuk, G.; Pompilian, G. O.; Popa, G.; Porosnicu, C.; Primc, G.; Probst, M.; Räisänen, J.; Rasinski, M.; Ratynskaia, S.; Reiser, D.; Ricci, D.; Richou, M.; Riesch, J.; Riva, G.; Rosinski, M.; Roubin, P.; Rubel, M.; Ruset, C.; Safi, E.; Sergienko, G.; Siketic, Z.; Sima, A.; Spilker, B.; Stadlmayr, R.; Steudel, I.; Ström, P.; Tadic, T.; Tafalla, D.; Tale, I.; Terentyev, D.; Terra, A.; Tiron, V.; Tiseanu, I.; Tolias, P.; Tskhakaya, D.; Uccello, A.; Unterberg, B.; Uytdenhoven, I.; Vassallo, E.; Vavpetič, P.; Veis, P.; Velicu, I. L.; Vernimmen, J. W. M.; Voitkans, A.; von Toussaint, U.; Weckmann, A.; Wirtz, M.; Založnik, A.; Zaplotnik, R.; PFC contributors, WP

    2017-11-01

    The provision of a particle and power exhaust solution which is compatible with first-wall components and edge-plasma conditions is a key area of present-day fusion research and mandatory for a successful operation of ITER and DEMO. The work package plasma-facing components (WP PFC) within the European fusion programme complements with laboratory experiments, i.e. in linear plasma devices, electron and ion beam loading facilities, the studies performed in toroidally confined magnetic devices, such as JET, ASDEX Upgrade, WEST etc. The connection of both groups is done via common physics and engineering studies, including the qualification and specification of plasma-facing components, and by modelling codes that simulate edge-plasma conditions and the plasma-material interaction as well as the study of fundamental processes. WP PFC addresses these critical points in order to ensure reliable and efficient use of conventional, solid PFCs in ITER (Be and W) and DEMO (W and steel) with respect to heat-load capabilities (transient and steady-state heat and particle loads), lifetime estimates (erosion, material mixing and surface morphology), and safety aspects (fuel retention, fuel removal, material migration and dust formation) particularly for quasi-steady-state conditions. Alternative scenarios and concepts (liquid Sn or Li as PFCs) for DEMO are developed and tested in the event that the conventional solution turns out to not be functional. Here, we present an overview of the activities with an emphasis on a few key results: (i) the observed synergistic effects in particle and heat loading of ITER-grade W with the available set of exposition devices on material properties such as roughness, ductility and microstructure; (ii) the progress in understanding of fuel retention, diffusion and outgassing in different W-based materials, including the impact of damage and impurities like N; and (iii), the preferential sputtering of Fe in EUROFER steel providing an in situ W

  19. Critical plasma-wall interaction issues for plasma-facing materials and components in near-term fusion devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Federici, G.; Coad, J.P.; Haasz, A.A.; Janeschitz, G.; Noda, N.; Philipps, V.; Roth, J.; Skinner, C.H.; Tivey, R.; Wu, C.H.

    2000-01-01

    The increase in pulse duration and cumulative run-time, together with the increase of the plasma energy content, will represent the largest changes in operation conditions in future fusion devices such as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) compared to today's experimental facilities. These will give rise to important plasma-physics effects and plasma-material interactions (PMIs) which are only partially observed and accessible in present-day experiments and will open new design, operation and safety issues. For the first time in fusion research, erosion and its consequences over many pulses (e.g., co-deposition and dust) may determine the operational schedule of a fusion device. This paper identifies the most critical issues arising from PMIs which represent key elements in the selection of materials, the design, and the optimisation of plasma-facing components (PFCs) for the first-wall and divertor. Significant advances in the knowledge base have been made recently, as part of the R and D supporting the engineering design activities (EDA) of ITER, and some of the most relevant data are reviewed here together with areas where further R and D work is urgently needed

  20. Recent QUEST experiments on non-inductive current drive and plasma-wall interaction towards steady state operation of spherical tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanada, K.; Zushi, H.; Idei, H.; Nakamura, K.; Nagashima, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Fujisawa, A.; Higashijima, A.; Kawasaki, S.; Nakashima, H.; Ishiguro, M.; Tashima, S.; Kalinnikova, E.I.; Mitarai, O.; Maekawa, T.; Fukuyama, A.; Takase, Y.; Gao, X.; Liu, H.; Qian, J.; Ono, M.; Raman, R.; Peng, M.

    2015-01-01

    Full text of publication follows. Steady state operation (SSO) of magnetic fusion devices is one of the goals for fusion research. Development of non-inductive current drive and investigation of plasma-wall interaction (PWI) are issues to be resolved for SSO. Because of the very limited central solenoid (CS) flux in a spherical tokamak (ST), methods for non-inductive plasma current start-up and sustainment are necessary. Fully non-inductive plasma up to approximately 5 min was successfully demonstrated on the spherical tokamak QUEST. Furthermore, recharging of the center solenoid coil was also achieved in OH+RF plasmas with plasma current feedback using the CS. During the plasma start-up phase, precession motion of trapped electrons can drive some current, which plays an essential role in forming a closed flux surface. On QUEST, the main parts of the plasma facing components (PFCs) are covered by tungsten plates (W) or coated by W plasma spray and are actively cooled by water circulation. The increase in water temperature quantitatively provides the deposited power to each PFC. The power balance during long duration discharges has been studied for various types of magnetic configurations such as limiter, upper and lower single-null divertor discharges. As, the temperature of any PFCs reaches a steady-state condition during long pulse, the power balance can be obtained. It is found that the discharge duration of QUEST is significantly limited by particle imbalance shown by gradual increment of plasma and neutral density. The additional influx of neutrals was provided by recycling of hydrogen, which is still uncontrollable. A point model of particle balance was applied to a long-duration divertor discharge, and it was found that a small increment of particle-influx occurred around the end of the long duration discharge. A post-mortem analysis of surface-attaching specimen during an experimental campaign indicates that the increased amount of neutral influx could be

  1. Study of plasma-wall interactions in Tore-supra; Etude des phenomenes d'interaction plasma/paroi dans Tore Supra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggieri, R

    2000-01-01

    In tokamaks the interaction between wall and plasma generates impurities that affect the thermonuclear fusion. This thesis is divided into 2 parts. The first part describes the physico-chemical processes that are involved in chemical erosion, the second part deals with the study of the wear of Tore-supra's walls due to chemical erosion. Chapter 1 presents the wall-plasma interaction and reviews the different processes between plasma and carbon that occur in Tore-supra. Chapter 2 considers the various crystallographic and electronic structures of the carbon that interferes with Tore-supra plasma, the evolution of these structures during irradiation and their temperature dependence are studied. Chapter 3 presents a crystallo-chemical study of graphite samples that have undergone different surface treatments: ionic bombardment, annealing and air exposure. This experimental study has been performed by using energy-loss spectroscopy. It is shown that air exposure modifies the crystallo-chemical structure of surfaces, so it is necessary to prevent air from contaminating wall samples from Tore-supra. Chapter 4 presents a parametric study of chemical erosion rate of plasma facing components (LPM) of Tore-supra. A relation such as Y{sub cd4}{alpha}{gamma}{sup -0.1} gives a good agreement for chemical erosion rate between measurements and the numerical values of the simulation. (A.C.)

  2. Plasma-wall interaction in NET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, F.; Chazalon, M.; Moons, F.; Vieider, G.; Harrison, M.F.A.; Hotston, E.S.

    1987-01-01

    NET is conceived as an experimental reactor with the aim of demonstrating reactor-relevant plasma performance and reliable operation of the device as well as developing and testing components for a demonstration reactor. For power and particle exhaust both a single-null and a double-null poloidal divertor configuration are under consideration. An intense modelling effort is undertaken to predict the heat load and erosion characteristics for these configurations. Under burn conditions, the divertor will operate in the high-recycling regime. The resulting heat loads on the divertor plates are predicted to be somewhat more demanding in the case of a single-null divertor. If one excludes working under conditions where a large part of the power is exhausted by radiation from the plasma edge, refractory metals (W, Mo) have to be used for the plasma-facing surface of the divertor plates, the radial heat and particle transport in the scrape-off layer must be large and the plasma density at the edge of the discharge must be high (n s ≅ 5x10 19 m -3 ). Erosion of a bare stainless steel first wall, under normal working conditions, appears to be within acceptable limits, but the use of graphite armouring is considered in order to avoid wall damage due to localized loads of highly energetic particles and to protect against disruption. Such a solution would also be consistent with the anticipated requirements during start-up. For both the first wall and the divertor plates various concepts are under consideration. Using replaceable tiles as plasma-facing components throughout appears attractive. (orig./GG)

  3. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar-Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

  4. Using Interaction Scenarios to Model Information Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars; Bøgh Andersen, Peter

    The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a set of interaction primitives that can be used to model the dynamics of socio-technical activity systems, including information systems, in a way that emphasizes structural aspects of the interaction that occurs in such systems. The primitives...... a number of case studies that indicate that interaction primitives can be useful modeling tools for supplementing conventional flow-oriented modeling of business processes....... are based on a unifying, conceptual definition of the disparate interaction types - a robust model of the types. The primitives can be combined and may thus represent mediated interaction. We present a set of visualizations that can be used to define multiple related interactions and we present and discuss...

  5. AIC and BIC for cosmological interacting scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arevalo, Fabiola [Universidad de La Frontera, Departamento de Ciencias Fisicas, Facultad de Ingenieria y Ciencias, Temuco (Chile); Cid, Antonella [Universidad del Bio-Bio, Departamento de Fisica and Grupo de Cosmologia y Gravitacion GCG-UBB, Concepcion (Chile); Moya, Jorge [Universidad de Concepcion, Departamento de Fisica, Concepcion (Chile)

    2017-08-15

    In this work we study linear and nonlinear cosmological interactions, which depend on dark matter and dark energy densities in the framework of general relativity. By using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the bayesian information criterion (BIC) with data from SnIa (Union 2.1 and binned JLA), H(z), BAO and CMB we compare the interacting models among themselves and analyze whether more complex interacting models are favored by these criteria. In this context, we find some suitable interactions that alleviate the coincidence problem. (orig.)

  6. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  7. Plasma-wall impurity experiments in ISX-A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colchin, R.J.; Bush, C.E.; Edmonds, P.H.

    1978-08-01

    The ISX-A was a tokamak designed for studying plasma-wall interactions and plasma impurities. It fulfilled this role quite well, producing reliable and reproducible plasmas which had currents up to 175 kA and energy containment times up to 30 msec. With discharge precleaning, Z/sub eff/ was as low as 1.6; with titanium evaporation, Z/sub eff/ approached 1.0. Values of Z/sub eff/ greater than or equal to 2.0 were found to be proportional to residual impurity gases in the vacuum system immediately following a discharge. However, there was no clear dependence of Z/sub eff/ on base pressure. Stainless steel limiters were used in most of the ISX-A experiments. When carbon limiters were introduced into the vacuum system, Z/sub eff/ increased to 5.6. After twelve days of cleanup with tokamak discharges, during which time Z/sub eff/ steadily decreased, the carbon limiters tended to give slightly higher values of Z/sub eff/ than stainless steel limiters. Injection of less than 10 16 atoms of tungsten into discharges caused the power incident on the wall to double and the electron temperature profile to become hollow

  8. Plasma-wall impurity experiments in ISX-A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colchin, R.J.; Bush, C.E.; Edmonds, P.H.; England, A.; Hill, K.W.; Isler, R.C.; Jernigan, T.C.; King, P.W.; Langley, R.A.; McNeill, D.H.; Murakami, M.; Neidigh, R.V.; Neilson, C.H.; Simpkins, J.E.; Wilgen, J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Burrell, K.H.; Ensberg, E.S.

    1978-01-01

    The ISX-A was a tokamak designed for studying plasma-wall interactions and plasma impurities. It fulfilled this role quite well, producing reliable and reproducible plasmas which had currents up to 175 kA and energy containment times up to 30 ms. With discharge precleaning, Zsub(eff) was as low as 1.6; with titanium evaporation. Zsub(eff) approached 1.0. Values of Zsub(eff) > approximately 2.0 were found to be proportional to residual impurity gases in the vacuum system immidiately following a discharge. However, there was no clear dependence of Zsub(eff) on base pressure. Stainless steel limiters were used in most of the ISX-A experiments. Upon introducing carbon limiters into the vacuum system, Zsub(eff) increased to 5.6. After twelve days of clean-up with tokamak discharges, during which time Zsub(eff) steadily decreased, the carbon limiters tended to give slightly higher values of Zsub(eff) than stainless steel limiters. Injection of 16 atoms of tungsten into discharges caused the power incident on the wall to double and the electron temperature profile to become hollow. (Auth.)

  9. A fresh look into the interacting dark matter scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, Miguel; Lopez-Honorez, Laura; Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Villanueva-Domingo, Pablo

    2018-06-01

    The elastic scattering between dark matter particles and radiation represents an attractive possibility to solve a number of discrepancies between observations and standard cold dark matter predictions, as the induced collisional damping would imply a suppression of small-scale structures. We consider this scenario and confront it with measurements of the ionization history of the Universe at several redshifts and with recent estimates of the counts of Milky Way satellite galaxies. We derive a conservative upper bound on the dark matter-photon elastic scattering cross section of σγ DM non-cold dark matter candidates, such as interacting and warm dark matter scenarios. Let us emphasize that bounds of similar magnitude to the ones obtained here could be also derived for models with dark matter-neutrino interactions and would be as constraining as the tightest limits on such scenarios.

  10. Surfaces electrons at dielectric plasma walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinisch, Rafael Leslie

    2013-01-01

    The concept of the electron surface layer introduced in this thesis provides a framework for the description of the microphysics of the surplus electrons immediately at the wall and thereby complements the modelling of the plasma sheath. In this work we have considered from a surface physics perspective the distribution and build-up of an electron adsorbate on the wall as well as the effect of the negative charge on the scattering of light by a spherical particle immersed in a plasma. In our electron surface layer model we treat the wall-bound electrons as a wall-thermalised electron distribution minimising the grand canonical potential and satisfying Poisson's equation. The boundary between the electron surface layer and the plasma sheath is determined by a force balance between the attractive image potential and the repulsive sheath potential and lies in front of the crystallographic interface. Depending on the electron affinity χ, that is the offset of the conduction band minimum to the potential in front of the surface, two scenarios for the wall-bound electrons are realised. For χ 0 electrons penetrate into the conduction band where they form an extended space charge. These different scenarios are also reflected in the electron kinetics at the wall which control the sticking coefficient and the desorption time. If χ -3 . For χ>0 electron physisorption takes place in the conduction band. For this case sticking coefficients and desorption times have not been calculated yet but in view of the more efficient scattering with bulk phonons, responsible for electron energy relaxation in this case, we expect them to be larger than for the case of χ 0 the electrons in the bulk of the particle modify the refractive index through their bulk electrical conductivity. In both cases the conductivity is limited by scattering with surface or bulk phonons. Surplus electrons lead to an increase of absorption at low frequencies and, most notably, to a blue-shift of an

  11. Experimental study of a RF plasma source with helicon configuration in the mix Ar/H_2. Application to the chemical etching of carbon materials surfaces in the framework of the plasma-wall interactions studies of ITER's divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieber, T.

    2012-01-01

    The issue of the interaction wall-plasma is important in thermonuclear devices. The purpose of this work is to design a very low pressure atomic plasma source in order to study chemical etching of carbon surfaces in the same conditions as edge plasma in tokamaks. The experimental work has consisted in 2 stages: first, the characterisation of the new helicon configuration reactor developed for this research and secondly the atomic hydrogen source used for the chemical etching. The first chapter recalls what thermonuclear fusion is. The helicon configuration reactor as well as its diagnostics (optical emission spectroscopy, laser induced fluorescence - LIF, and Langmuir probe) are described in the second chapter. The third chapter deals with the different coupling modes (RF power and plasma) identified in pure argon plasmas and how they are obtained by setting experimental parameters such as injected RF power, magnetic fields or pressure. The fourth chapter is dedicated to the study of the difference in behavior between the electronic density and the relative density of metastable Ar"+ ions. The last chapter presents the results in terms of mass losses of the carbon material surfaces obtained with the atomic hydrogen source. (A.C.)

  12. Phenomenological theory of synergistic effects in plasma-wall interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, N.; Hasebe, Y.

    1986-01-01

    A phenomenological theory for synergistic effects under multi-species particle bombardement has been developed. The theory is based on a model in which two free-energy minima are assumed to be overcome under actions of radiation for a process to be completed. The synergistic factor, the ratio of the yield of the process under irradiation with two species of particles to the summation of the yields of the process under irradiation with each of two component species, is obtained as a function of the beam flux for several parameters relevant to thermodynamic and radiation-enhanced processes. The criterion for the synergistic effect is obtained. The theory has been shown to be able to explain the yield-flux relation obtained by Haasz et al. for hydrogen-induced methane formation from graphite. (orig.)

  13. Materials Analysis of Transient Plasma-Wall Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-13

    using an SRS Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA) 100. Multi-turn, solenoid cusp/guide coils are positioned on each side of the FRC formation chamber to both aid...the solenoid and provide a slight mirror field to aid in FRC confinement. The triggering times for the various components of the formation process are... laser is passed through the formation section between coils 4 and 5, the reference beam is passed over the top of the coils and back to recombine

  14. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  15. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  16. Quantum chemical estimation of sorption/desorption of H{sub 2} and H{sub 2}O (gas) at the plasma-wall interface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagasaki, Shinya; Tsushima, Satoru; Tanaka, Masataka; Umemura, Yasuhiro [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-10-01

    By using MOPAC Code, we estimated the charge density of SiO{sub 2}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-SiO{sub 2} metal oxide. We could find that the such quantum chemical calculation is a fruitful tool for understanding the plasma-wall interactions from the microscopic point of view. (author)

  17. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  18. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1991-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  19. Liquid nitrogen - water interaction experiments for fusion reactor accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duckworth, R.; Murphy, J.; Pfotenhauer, J.; Corradini, M.

    2001-01-01

    With the implementation of superconducting magnets in fusion reactors, the possibility exists for the interaction between water and cryogenic systems. The interaction between liquid nitrogen and water was investigated experimentally and numerically. The rate of pressurization and peak pressure were found to be driven thermodynamically by the expansion of the water and the boil-off of the liquid nitrogen and did not have a vapor explosion nature. Since the peak pressure was small in comparison to previous work with stratified geometries, the role of the geometry of the interacting fluids has been shown to be significant. Comparisons of the peak pressure and the rate of pressurization with respect to the ratio of the liquid nitrogen mass to water mass reveal no functional dependence as was observed in the liquid helium-water experiments. A simple thermodynamic model provides a fairly good description of the pressure rise data. From the data, the model will allow one to extract the interaction area of the water. As with previous liquid helium-water interaction experiments, more extensive investigation of the mass ratio and interaction geometry is needed to define boundaries between explosive and non-explosive conditions. (authors)

  20. Game theory in communication networks cooperative resolution of interactive networking scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Antoniou, Josephina

    2012-01-01

    A mathematical tool for scientists and researchers who work with computer and communication networks, Game Theory in Communication Networks: Cooperative Resolution of Interactive Networking Scenarios addresses the question of how to promote cooperative behavior in interactive situations between heterogeneous entities in communication networking scenarios. It explores network design and management from a theoretical perspective, using game theory and graph theory to analyze strategic situations and demonstrate profitable behaviors of the cooperative entities. The book promotes the use of Game T

  1. Radiative natural SUSY spectrum from deflected AMSB scenario with messenger-matter interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Fei [School of Physics, Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics,Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080 (China); Yang, Jin Min [State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics,Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080 (China); Department of Physics, Tohoku University,Sendai 980-8578 (Japan); Zhang, Yang [State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics,Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080 (China)

    2016-04-29

    A radiative natural SUSY spectrum are proposed in the deflected anomaly mediation scenario with general messenger-matter interactions. Due to the contributions from the new interactions, positive slepton masses as well as a large |A{sub t}| term can naturally be obtained with either sign of deflection parameter and few messenger species (thus avoid the possible Landau pole problem). In this scenario, in contrast to the ordinary (radiative) natural SUSY scenario with under-abundance of dark matter (DM), the DM can be the mixed bino-higgsino and have the right relic density. The 125 GeV Higgs mass can also be easily obtained in our scenario. The majority of low EW fine tuning points can be covered by the XENON-1T direct detection experiments.

  2. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  3. An interaction scenario of the galaxy pair NGC 3893/96 (KPG 302): A single passage?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gabbasov, R. F.; Rosado, M. [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico (UNAM), A.P. 70-264,04510 México D.F. (Mexico); Klapp, J., E-mail: ruslan.gabb@gmail.com [Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares, Carretera México-Toluca S/N, La Marquesa, Ocoyoacac, 52750 Estado de México (Mexico)

    2014-05-20

    Using the data obtained previously from Fabry-Perot interferometry, we study the orbital characteristics of the interacting pair of galaxies KPG 302 with the aim to estimate a possible interaction history, the conditions necessary for the spiral arm formation, and initial satellite mass. We found by performing N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of the interaction that a single passage can produce a grand design spiral pattern in less than 1 Gyr. Although we reproduce most of the features with the single passage, the required satellite to host mass ratio should be ∼1:5, which is not confirmed by the dynamical mass estimate made from the measured rotation curve. We conclude that a more realistic interaction scenario would require several passages in order to explain the mass ratio discrepancy.

  4. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d` Aeronomie; Le Treut, H [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1998-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  5. Comparative scenario study of tropospheric ozone climate interactions using a global model. A 1% global increase rate, the IS92a IPCC scenario and a simplified aircraft traffic increase scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chalita, S. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Service d`Aeronomie; Le Treut, H. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique

    1997-12-31

    Sensitivity studies have been made to establish the relationship between different scenarios of tropospheric ozone increase and radiative forcing. Some aspects of the ozone-climate interactions for past and future scenarios are investigated. These calculations employ IMAGES tropospheric ozone concentrations for a pre-industrial, present and future atmospheres. The averaged last 10 years of the 25-year seasonal integrations were analyzed. The results of this study are preliminary. Ozone forcing is basically different from the CO{sub 2} forcing, for its regional and temporal structured nature and for its rather weak intensity. (R.P.) 14 refs.

  6. Introducing Scenario Based Learning interactive to postgraduates in UQ Orthodontic Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser-ud-Din, S

    2015-08-01

    E-learning has gained momentum in health sciences and seems to have great potential in specialist dental education. Higher acceptability by learners is particularly associated with the surge of smart devices. Currently, there are limited number of e-learning modules available for dental education, particularly in Orthodontics. Scenario Based Learning interactive (SBLi(®)) software was used for the first time in Orthodontics Postgraduate training at the University of Queensland. Nine interactive modules were created embedded with clinical procedure videos, web-links, evidence-based literature, along with opportunity for self-assessment and evaluation. Qualitative data were collected before and after the administration of the SBLi(®) for Orthodontics. The purpose of this data was to investigate learning styles and the acceptance of e-modules as part of postgraduate training. Advantages of the package included high acceptance rate, greater confidence in the application of clinical skills covered in the modules and reduced contact time particularly with limited academic staff. E-modules demonstrated high compatibility with the learning styles of the participants and were considered engaging. It seems apparent that e-learning is most effective in a blended learning environment, supplemented with the traditional classroom approach, rather than as a sole mechanism for postgraduate training. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Numerical analysis of plasma-wall interaction for an oblique magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chodura, R.

    1982-01-01

    A numerical code is used to calculate energy and incidence angle of plasma ions and electrons impinging on an absorbing wall. Plasma particles coming from a plasma of given density and temperature traverse a transition layer with an electric space charge field perpendicular to the wall and a given magnetic field of arbitrary angle before being adsorbed in the wall. The 1d electrostatic particle code determines the electric field and the change of particle velocity distributions in the transition layer. When the incidence angle psi of the magnetic field is varied from 0 0 (normal) to 90 0 (tangential), the impact energies W of ions and electrons at the wall stay nearly unchanged. Electrons reach the wall according to an isotropic Maxwellian distribution except for large angles psi where only electrons travelling along the magnetic field have a chance to escape the plasma. Ions hit the wall at increasing angles theta for increasing psi. The incidence angle of cold ions (Tsub(i0) = 0) is always steeper than that of the magnetic field. For nearly grazing incidence angle of the magnetic field psi →90 0 the ion incidence angle theta becomes grazing as well. After the distribution function is determined the sputtering yield of wall incident ions is calculated for different magnetic field angles psi showing maximum yield for psi near to 90 0 . (orig.)

  8. Scientific report. Plasma-wall interaction studies related to fusion reactor materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Temmerman, G. De

    2006-01-01

    This scientific report summarises research done on erosion and deposition mechanisms affecting the optical reflectivity of potential materials for use in the mirrors used in fusion reactors. Work done in Juelich, Germany, at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland, the JET laboratory in England and in Basle is discussed. Various tests made with the mirrors are described. Results obtained are presented in graphical and tabular form and commented on. The influence of various material choices on erosion and deposition mechanisms is discussed

  9. Issues Arising from Plasma-Wall Interactions in Inner-Class Tokamaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wampler, William R.

    1999-06-23

    This section reviews physical processes involved in the implantation of energetic hydrogen into plasma facing materials and its subsequent diffusion, release, or immobilization by trapping or precipitation within the material. These topics have also been discussed in previous reviews. The term hydrogen or H is used here generically to refer to protium, deuterium or tritium.

  10. Time dependence of gases from plasma-wall interactions in ISX-A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpkins, J.E.; Colchin, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    Numerous papers have been published concerning radiation damage and thermal properties of first walls in tokamak reactors. However vacuum properties are also important, particularly as regards the adsorption and release of gases during and immediately following tokamak discharges. We have studied the time evolution of working and impurity gases by means of a quadrupole mass spectrometer attached to the ISX-A tokamak. These results were compared with measurements in a similar (304L stainless steel) laboratory vacuum system, with no tokamak discharges. Laboratory tests were made with a 100-msec-long H 2 puff. The partial pressures of CH 4 , H 2 O, and CO all exhibited very small intermediate peaks followed by a second rise which began 25 to 50 msec after the beginning of the puff and peaked some 200 to 300 msec later. When Ar was substituted for the H 2 puff the partial pressures of these impurities behaved in a similar manner except that the magnitude of the increase was less. The pressure rise of the impurity gases following the H 2 puffs varied, depending on the vacuum system configuration, differences in wall preparation of the tokamak and the absence of a plasma in the laboratory systems

  11. Plasma-wall interaction: Recent TFTR results and implications on design and construction of limiters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, D.K.; Ulrickson, M.A.

    1987-01-01

    The first wall of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) consists of a water cooled toroidal belt limiter, a cooled moveable limiter, and cooled protective plates to shield the vacuum vessel from neutral beam shinethrough. Each of these systems consists of Inconel support plates covered with graphite tiles. In addition, there are Inconel and stainless steel bellows cover plates to protect the bellows and the surface pumping system which provides enhanced pumping in the torus and also serves to protect the bellows. These systems are described and the design requirements, simulations and actual thermal and mechanical loads reviewed. The normal and off-normal operating conditions which were considered in the design of the TFTR components include thermal loading during normal and disruptive plasma operation, eddy-current induced mechanical forces and arcing. The failures which have occurred are generally associated with thermal stress rather than mechanical failure due to disruption induced eddy currents. The models which were developed to design the TFTR hardware appear to have worked well as the performance of these systems has generally been satisfactory at loads approaching design limits. The implications of the TFTR experience for reactor design are discussed

  12. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  13. "What Line Will You Take with This Person?": Scenarios for Strategic Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docker, Julie

    1990-01-01

    Presents two-role scenarios involving persons with conflicting needs or interests to enhance foreign language students' strategic intervention language skills in realistic situations. The scenarios not only encourage students to think through strategies to resolve a problem or conflict but also use their language skills to communicate effectively…

  14. Technology interactions among low-carbon energy technologies: What can we learn from a large number of scenarios?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall; Hackbarth, Andrew; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Lempert, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    Advanced low-carbon energy technologies can substantially reduce the cost of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Understanding the interactions between these technologies and their impact on the costs of stabilization can help inform energy policy decisions. Many previous studies have addressed this challenge by exploring a small number of representative scenarios that represent particular combinations of future technology developments. This paper uses a combinatorial approach in which scenarios are created for all combinations of the technology development assumptions that underlie a smaller, representative set of scenarios. We estimate stabilization costs for 768 runs of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), based on 384 different combinations of assumptions about the future performance of technologies and two stabilization goals. Graphical depiction of the distribution of stabilization costs provides first-order insights about the full data set and individual technologies. We apply a formal scenario discovery method to obtain more nuanced insights about the combinations of technology assumptions most strongly associated with high-cost outcomes. Many of the fundamental insights from traditional representative scenario analysis still hold under this comprehensive combinatorial analysis. For example, the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the substitution effect among supply technologies are consistently demonstrated. The results also provide more clarity regarding insights not easily demonstrated through representative scenario analysis. For example, they show more clearly how certain supply technologies can provide a hedge against high stabilization costs, and that aggregate end-use efficiency improvements deliver relatively consistent stabilization cost reductions. Furthermore, the results indicate that a lack of CCS options combined with lower technological advances in the buildings sector or the transportation sector is

  15. Comprehensive kinetic analysis of the plasma-wall transition layer in a strongly tilted magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tskhakaya, D. D.; Kos, L.

    2014-01-01

    The magnetized plasma-wall transition (MPWT) layer at the presence of the obliquity of the magnetic field to the wall consists of three sub-layers: the Debye sheath (DS), the magnetic pre-sheath (MPS), and the collisional pre-sheath (CPS) with characteristic lengths λ D (electron Debye length), ρ i (ion gyro-radius), and ℓ (the smallest relevant collision length), respectively. Tokamak plasmas are usually assumed to have the ordering λ D ≪ρ i ≪ℓ, when the above-mentioned sub-layers can be distinctly distinguished. In the limits of ε Dm (λ D /ρ i )→0 and ε mc (ρ i /ℓ)→0 (“asymptotic three-scale (A3S) limits”), these sub-layers are precisely defined. Using the smallness of the tilting angle of the magnetic field to the wall, the ion distribution functions are found for three sub-regions in the analytic form. The equations and characteristic length-scales governing the transition (intermediate) regions between the neighboring sub-layers (CPS – MPS and MPS – DS) are derived, allowing to avoid the singularities arising from the ε Dm →0 and ε mc →0 approximations. The MPS entrance and the related kinetic form of the Bohm–Chodura condition are successfully defined for the first time. At the DS entrance, the Bohm condition maintains its usual form. The results encourage further study and understanding of physics of the MPWT layers in the modern plasma facilities

  16. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  17. Ontology-based indirect interaction of mobile robots for joint task solving: a scenario for obstacle overcoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrov Mikhail

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an ontology-based approach to interaction of users and mobile robots for joint task solving. The use of ontologies allows supporting semantic interoperability between robots. The ontologies store knowledge about the tasks to be performed, knowledge about the functionality of robots and the current situation factors like a robot location or busyness. Ontologies are published in a smart space which allows indirect interaction between participants. On the basis of the knowledge, a robot can define a task that is to be performed and get the current status of other robots. The paper presents a reference model of the approach to indirect interaction between mobile robots for joint task solving, an ontology model for the knowledge organization, and application of the presented approach for the scenario for obstacle overcoming.

  18. Revising scenario map for plant management via interaction of stakeholders' intentions and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohsawa, Yukio; Taya, Sayuri

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to put knowledge of plant safety together and make a map that will help to understand a system of plant and notice new links among components. This map, called the scenario map, can be used for aiding the chance discoveries - decision of various stakeholders of the system based on their awareness of latent dynamics underlying observed events. The trustworthiness of their analysis will be also reinforced by linking relevant data to the nodes and lines in the graph. In order to have stakeholders be aware of information missed in available data, we invented a method of workshop and moved forward with a rough map of plant safety. The first phase attempts to externalize differences in the bodies of knowledge of each participant. In the second, introducing Tsugo Roulette (TR) – the core component of this paper -, latent dynamics where physical and social causalities emerge is externalized. Then participants revise the scenario map based on their thoughts by the second phase, to finally evaluate the utility of nodes and lines in the graph. In accordance with each phase, participants in the workshop could exchange their tsugoes - views of intentions and constraints - and realize new links or nodes to be evaluated highly by experts in the corresponding domain. (author)

  19. Self-interacting dark matter constraints in a thick dark disk scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vattis, Kyriakos; Koushiappas, Savvas M.

    2018-05-01

    A thick dark matter disk is predicted in cold dark matter simulations as the outcome of the interaction between accreted satellites and the stellar disk in Milky Way-sized halos. We study the effects of a self-interacting thick dark disk on the energetic neutrino flux from the Sun. We find that for particle masses between 100 GeV and 1 TeV and dark matter annihilation to τ+τ-, either the self-interaction may not be strong enough to solve the small-scale structure motivation or a dark disk cannot be present in the Milky Way.

  20. Isotropic extragalactic flux from dark matter annihilations: lessons from interacting dark matter scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moliné, Ángeles; Schewtschenko, Jascha A.; Boehm, Céline; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Baugh, Carlton M.

    2016-01-01

    The extragalactic γ-ray and neutrino emission may have a contribution from dark matter (DM) annihilations. In the case of discrepancies between observations and standard predictions, one could infer the DM pair annihilation cross section into cosmic rays by studying the shape of the energy spectrum. So far all analyses of the extragalactic DM signal have assumed the standard cosmological model (ΛCDM) as the underlying theory. However, there are alternative DM scenarios where the number of low-mass objects is significantly suppressed. Therefore the characteristics of the γ-ray and neutrino emission in these models may differ from ΛCDM as a result. Here we show that the extragalactic isotropic signal in these alternative models has a similar energy dependence to that in ΛCDM, but the overall normalisation is reduced. The similarities between the energy spectra combined with the flux suppression could lead one to misinterpret possible evidence for models beyond ΛCDM as being due to CDM particles annihilating with a much weaker cross section than expected.

  1. Isotropic extragalactic flux from dark matter annihilations: lessons from interacting dark matter scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moliné, Ángeles [CFTP, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Schewtschenko, Jascha A.; Boehm, Céline [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology (IPPP), Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de València, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 Valencia (Spain); Baugh, Carlton M., E-mail: maria.moline@ist.utl.pt, E-mail: jascha@schewtschenko.net, E-mail: Sergio.Palomares.Ruiz@ific.uv.es, E-mail: c.m.boehm@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: c.m.baugh@durham.ac.uk [Institute for Computational Cosmology (ICC), Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-01

    The extragalactic γ-ray and neutrino emission may have a contribution from dark matter (DM) annihilations. In the case of discrepancies between observations and standard predictions, one could infer the DM pair annihilation cross section into cosmic rays by studying the shape of the energy spectrum. So far all analyses of the extragalactic DM signal have assumed the standard cosmological model (ΛCDM) as the underlying theory. However, there are alternative DM scenarios where the number of low-mass objects is significantly suppressed. Therefore the characteristics of the γ-ray and neutrino emission in these models may differ from ΛCDM as a result. Here we show that the extragalactic isotropic signal in these alternative models has a similar energy dependence to that in ΛCDM, but the overall normalisation is reduced. The similarities between the energy spectra combined with the flux suppression could lead one to misinterpret possible evidence for models beyond ΛCDM as being due to CDM particles annihilating with a much weaker cross section than expected.

  2. Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeker, Kristy J; Kordas, Rebecca L; Harley, Christopher D G

    2017-03-01

    Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change. © 2017 The Authors.

  3. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  4. Isotropic background for interacting two fluid scenario coupled with zero mass scalar field in modified gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chirde, V.R.; Shekh, S.H.

    2016-01-01

    The modified theories of gravity have engrossed much attention in the last decade, especially f(R) gravity. In this contextual exploration, we investigate interaction between barotropic fluid and dark energy with zero-mass scalar field for the spatially homogeneous and isotropic flat FRW universe. In this universe, the field equations correspond to the particular choice of f(R) = R+bR m . The exact solutions of the field equations are obtained by applying volumetric power law and exponential law of expansion. In power and exponential law of expansion, the universe shows both matter dominated and DE era for b ≤ 0 and b ≥ 0 and remain present in dark era respectively, but power law model is fully occupying with real matter for b > 0 and for b < 0 exponential model expands with negative pressure and remain present in matter dominated phase respectively. The physical behavior of the universe has been discussed by using some physical quantities

  5. Mechano-Chemical Interactions at Cement-Geomaterial Interfaces in Repository and Borehole Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohagheghi, J. R.; Dewers, T. A.; Matteo, E. N.; Heath, J. E.; Jove Colon, C. F.; Fuller, T.

    2017-12-01

    A number of factors negatively affect wellbore integrity including interactions at boundaries between cement and surrounding geomaterial. These include mechanical and chemical mechanisms that can lead to wellbore failure. To examine these interactions, potential coupling, and pathways to failure, we discuss progress on an experimental and modeling study involving cement-clay and cement-salt interfaces. A sample shotcrete-bentonite interface from the FEBEX heater test at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland is examined using multi-beam scanning electron microscopy (mSEM) at 4 nm resolution over an area 10's of square millimeters. We examine changes in alteration as manifested by pore structural changes as a function of distance from the interface. A parallel effort examines time-dependent changes in interface structure in cement cores in a triaxial coreholder. Cores are exposed to conditions of 70oC, 14 MPa pressure, and small differential loads, with degradation being monitored by effluent pH, pulse-echo ultrasonics, and piston displacement (measuring sample shortening). We will measure the mechanical consequences of interface alteration using nano-indentation. Experimental results are being incorporated as a validation effort in a coupled reactive-transport mechanics model linking the Sandia ALBANY finite element code, the KAYENTA elasto-plastic constitutive model, with the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN. Plans call to apply the model to understanding the evolution of the FEBEX sample, as well as a cement-salt sample from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND 2017-8277 A

  6. Evaluating interactive computer-based scenarios designed for learning medical technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Wallergård, Mattias; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-11-01

    The use of medical equipment is growing in healthcare, resulting in an increased need for resources to educate users in how to manage the various devices. Learning the practical operation of a device is one thing, but learning how to work with the device in the actual clinical context is more challenging. This paper presents a computer-based simulation prototype for learning medical technology in the context of critical care. Properties from simulation and computer games have been adopted to create a visualization-based, interactive and contextually bound tool for learning. A participatory design process, including three researchers and three practitioners from a clinic for infectious diseases, was adopted to adjust the form and content of the prototype to the needs of the clinical practice and to create a situated learning experience. An evaluation with 18 practitioners showed that practitioners were positive to this type of tool for learning and that it served as a good platform for eliciting and sharing knowledge. Our conclusion is that this type of tools can be a complement to traditional learning resources to situate the learning in a context without requiring advanced technology or being resource-demanding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The plasma-wall transition layers in the presence of collisions with a magnetic field parallel to the wall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moritz, J.; Faudot, E.; Devaux, S.; Heuraux, S.

    2018-01-01

    The plasma-wall transition is studied by means of a particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation in the configuration of a parallel to the wall magnetic field (B), with collisions between charged particles vs. neutral atoms taken into account. The investigated system consists of a plasma bounded by two absorbing walls separated by 200 electron Debye lengths (λd). The strength of the magnetic field is chosen such as the ratio λ d / r l , with rl being the electron Larmor radius, is smaller or larger than unity. Collisions are modelled with a simple operator that reorients randomly ion or electron velocity, keeping constant the total kinetic energy of both the neutral atom (target) and the incident charged particle. The PIC simulations show that the plasma-wall transition consists in a quasi-neutral region (pre-sheath), from the center of the plasma towards the walls, where the electric potential or electric field profiles are well described by an ambipolar diffusion model, and in a second region at the vicinity of the walls, called the sheath, where the quasi-neutrality breaks down. In this peculiar geometry of B and for a certain range of the mean-free-path, the sheath is found to be composed of two charged layers: the positive one, close to the walls, and the negative one, towards the plasma and before the neutral pre-sheath. Depending on the amplitude of B, the spatial variation of the electric potential can be non-monotonic and presents a maximum within the sheath region. More generally, the sheath extent as well as the potential drop within the sheath and the pre-sheath is studied with respect to B, the mean-free-path, and the ion and electron temperatures.

  8. Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy E Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. Methods: The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012 and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Results: Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Conclusions: Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions. Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship′s educational platform.

  9. Pathology informatics fellowship retreats: The use of interactive scenarios and case studies as pathology informatics teaching tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Roy E; McClintock, David S; Balis, Ulysses J; Baron, Jason M; Becich, Michael J; Beckwith, Bruce A; Brodsky, Victor B; Carter, Alexis B; Dighe, Anand S; Haghighi, Mehrvash; Hipp, Jason D; Henricks, Walter H; Kim, Jiyeon Y; Klepseis, Veronica E; Kuo, Frank C; Lane, William J; Levy, Bruce P; Onozato, Maristela L; Park, Seung L; Sinard, John H; Tuthill, Mark J; Gilbertson, John R

    2012-01-01

    Last year, our pathology informatics fellowship added informatics-based interactive case studies to its existing educational platform of operational and research rotations, clinical conferences, a common core curriculum with an accompanying didactic course, and national meetings. The structure of the informatics case studies was based on the traditional business school case study format. Three different formats were used, varying in length from short, 15-minute scenarios to more formal multiple hour-long case studies. Case studies were presented over the course of three retreats (Fall 2011, Winter 2012, and Spring 2012) and involved both local and visiting faculty and fellows. Both faculty and fellows found the case studies and the retreats educational, valuable, and enjoyable. From this positive feedback, we plan to incorporate the retreats in future academic years as an educational component of our fellowship program. Interactive case studies appear to be valuable in teaching several aspects of pathology informatics that are difficult to teach in more traditional venues (rotations and didactic class sessions). Case studies have become an important component of our fellowship's educational platform.

  10. Views from Within a Narrative: Evaluating Long-Term Human-Robot Interaction in a Naturalistic Environment Using Open-Ended Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syrdal, Dag Sverre; Dautenhahn, Kerstin; Koay, Kheng Lee; Ho, Wan Ching

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the prototyping of human-robot interactions in the University of Hertfordshire (UH) Robot House. Twelve participants took part in a long-term study in which they interacted with robots in the UH Robot House once a week for a period of 10 weeks. A prototyping method using the narrative framing technique allowed participants to engage with the robots in episodic interactions that were framed using narrative to convey the impression of a continuous long-term interaction. The goal was to examine how participants responded to the scenarios and the robots as well as specific robot behaviours, such as agent migration and expressive behaviours. Evaluation of the robots and the scenarios were elicited using several measures, including the standardised System Usability Scale, an ad hoc Scenario Acceptance Scale, as well as single-item Likert scales, open-ended questionnaire items and a debriefing interview. Results suggest that participants felt that the use of this prototyping technique allowed them insight into the use of the robot, and that they accepted the use of the robot within the scenario.

  11. Plasma-wall interaction and locked modes in the toroidal pinch experiment TPE-RX reversed-field pinch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasqualini, D.; Martin, P.; Koguchi, H.; Yagi, Y.; Hirano, Y.; Sakakita, H.; Spizzo, G.

    2006-01-01

    The MHD instabilities that sustain the reversed-field pinch (RFP) configuration tend to phase-lock together and also to wall-lock, forming a bulging of the plasma column, called 'locked mode'. This phenomenon is of particular interest, since the locked mode causes a larger plasma resistivity, plasma cooling, and, in some cases, anomalous discharge termination. Up to now, studies of the locked mode have been focused on m=1 modes (being m the poloidal mode number). In this Letter we show that m=0 modes also play a role, based on the cross-check between magnetic spectra and toroidally resolved D α array measurements. (author)

  12. Numerical study of plasma-wall transition in an oblique magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valsaque, Fabrice; Manfredi, Giovanni

    2001-01-01

    The interaction of a plasma with a fixed wall is investigated numerically. The ions are described by a kinetic model, while the electrons are assumed to be at thermal equilibrium. Finite Debye length effects are taken into account. An Eulerian code is used for the ion dynamics, which enables us to obtain a fine resolution of both position and velocity space. First, we analyse the effect of ionization and collisions, which bring the ion flow to supersonic velocity at the entrance of the Debye sheath (Bohm's criterion). Second, we consider a collisionless sheath with an oblique magnetic field. A magnetic presheath, which has a width of several ion gyroradii, is located between the Debye sheath and the bulk plasma. We perform a systematic numerical study of these sheaths for different incidences of the magnetic field

  13. Interaction between Cities and Climate Change: Modelling Urban Morphology and Local Urban Planning Scenarios from Open Datasets across European Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Bart; Stevens, Catherine; Grommen, Mart

    2015-04-01

    Cities are characterised by a large spatiotemporal diversity of local climates induced by a superposition of various factors and processes interacting at global and regional scales but also at the micro level such as the urban heat island effect. As urban areas are known as 'hot spots' prone to climate and its variability over time leading to changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves, it is of crucial importance to capture the spatial heterogeneity resulting from variations in land use land cover (LULC) and urban morphology in an effective way to drive local urban climate simulations. The first part of the study conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission focusses on the extraction of land surface parameters linked to urban morphology characteristics from detailed 3D city models and their relationship with openly accessible European datasets such as the degree of soil sealing and disaggregated population densities from the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the Joint Research Centre (JRC). While it has been demonstrated that good correlations can be found between those datasets and the planar and frontal area indices, the present work has expanded the research to other urban morphology parameters including the average and variation of the building height and the sky view factor. Correlations up to 80% have been achieved depending on the considered parameter and the specific urban area including the cities of Antwerp (Belgium), Berlin (Germany) and Almada (Portugal) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. Moreover, the transferability of the established relations has been investigated across the various cities. Secondly, a flexible and scalable approach as a function of the required the level of detail has been elaborated to update the various morphology parameters in case of integration with urban planning data to analyse the local impact of future land use scenarios

  14. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  15. Catchment-coastal zone interaction based upon scenario and model analysis: Elbe and the German Bight case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmann, J.; Behrendt, H.; Gilbert, A.J.; Janssen, R.; Kannen, A.; Kappenberg, J.W.; Lenhart, H.; Lise, W.; Nunneri, C.; Windhorst, W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a holistic strategy on the interaction of activities in the Elbe river basin and their effects on eutrophication in the coastal waters of the German Bight. This catchment-coastal zone interaction is the main target of the EUROCAT (EUROpean CATchments, catchment changes and their

  16. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  17. A Usability and Learnability Case Study of Glass Flight Deck Interfaces and Pilot Interactions through Scenario-based Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Cino, Thomas J., II

    In the aviation industry, digitally produced and presented flight, navigation, and aircraft information is commonly referred to as glass flight decks. Glass flight decks are driven by computer-based subsystems and have long been a part of military and commercial aviation sectors. Over the past 15 years, the General Aviation (GA) sector of the aviation industry has become a recent beneficiary of the rapid advancement of computer-based glass flight deck (GFD) systems. While providing the GA pilot considerable enhancements in the quality of information about the status and operations of the aircraft, training pilots on the use of glass flight decks is often delivered with traditional methods (e.g. textbooks, PowerPoint presentations, user manuals, and limited computer-based training modules). These training methods have been reported as less than desirable in learning to use the glass flight deck interface. Difficulties in achieving a complete understanding of functional and operational characteristics of the GFD systems, acquiring a full understanding of the interrelationships of the varied subsystems, and handling the wealth of flight information provided have been reported. Documented pilot concerns of poor user experience and satisfaction, and problems with the learning the complex and sophisticated interface of the GFD are additional issues with current pilot training approaches. A case study was executed to explore ways to improve training using GFD systems at a Midwestern aviation university. The researcher investigated if variations in instructional systems design and training methods for learning glass flight deck technology would affect the perceptions and attitudes of pilots of the learnability (an attribute of usability) of the glass flight deck interface. Specifically, this study investigated the effectiveness of scenario-based training (SBT) methods to potentially improve pilot knowledge and understanding of a GFD system, and overall pilot user

  18. Does social presence or the potential for interaction reduce social gaze in online social scenarios? Introducing the "live lab" paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Nicola J; Antolin, Jastine V

    2018-05-01

    Research has shown that people's gaze is biased away from faces in the real world but towards them when they are viewed onscreen. Non-equivalent stimulus conditions may have represented a confound in this research, however, as participants viewed onscreen stimuli as pre-recordings where interaction was not possible compared with real-world stimuli which were viewed in real time where interaction was possible. We assessed the independent contributions of online social presence and ability for interaction on social gaze by developing the "live lab" paradigm. Participants in three groups ( N = 132) viewed a confederate as (1) a live webcam stream where interaction was not possible (one-way), (2) a live webcam stream where an interaction was possible (two-way), or (3) a pre-recording. Potential for interaction, rather than online social presence, was the primary influence on gaze behaviour: participants in the pre-recorded and one-way conditions looked more to the face than those in the two-way condition, particularly, when the confederate made "eye contact." Fixation durations to the face were shorter when the scene was viewed live, particularly, during a bid for eye contact. Our findings support the dual function of gaze but suggest that online social presence alone is not sufficient to activate social norms of civil inattention. Implications for the reinterpretation of previous research are discussed.

  19. Identifying space for offshore wind energy in the North Sea. Consequences of scenario calculations for interactions with other marine uses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jongbloed, R.H.; Wal, J.T. van der; Lindeboom, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    The increasing demand for renewable energy drives the development of offshore wind energy (OWE) leading to competing claims with other human and nature related uses of the North Sea. This paper investigates possibilities to identify space for new OWE while minimising effects on other uses. An inventory is made of the major uses in the Central and Southern North Sea, including the expected development towards 2030. The spatial distribution of non-wind uses is determined as well as the possibilities for differentiation based on density, economic value or nature value and co-existence. These possibilities are translated into calculation rules quantifying the relative importance. These calculation rules have been incorporated in a Decision Support System (DSS) to analyse how the priority of OWE development could impact non-wind uses. In a low OWE priority scenario consequences for other use was found to be very limited, with fisheries and wildlife affected most. In a high OWE priority scenario a considerable amount of OWE may be developed with substantial claims on sand extraction and military use areas and a shift towards higher value categories for shipping and fisheries. Relocation and co-existence of uses are important means to reduce the impact of increased OWE development. - Highlights: • A new method for minimising effects of new Offshore Wind Energy on other uses. • Calculation rules are based on density, economic or nature values of major marine activities. • Most activities are concentrated near the coast and expected to increase. • Increasing priority for OWE claims more and higher value area from other uses. • Relocation and co-use of areas reduce negative consequences

  20. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  1. Hybrid integral-differential simulator of EM force interactions/scenario-assessment tool with pre-computed influence matrix in applications to ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozov, V.; Alekseev, A.

    2015-08-01

    A necessity to address a wide spectrum of engineering problems in ITER determined the need for efficient tools for modeling of the magnetic environment and force interactions between the main components of the magnet system. The assessment of the operating window for the machine, determined by the electro-magnetic (EM) forces, and the check of feasibility of particular scenarios play an important role for ensuring the safety of exploitation. Such analysis-powered prevention of damages forms an element of the Machine Operations and Investment Protection strategy. The corresponding analysis is a necessary step in preparation of the commissioning, which finalizes the construction phase. It shall be supported by the development of the efficient and robust simulators and multi-physics/multi-system integration of models. The developed numerical model of interactions in the ITER magnetic system, based on the use of pre-computed influence matrices, facilitated immediate and complete assessment and systematic specification of EM loads on magnets in all foreseen operating regimes, their maximum values, envelopes and the most critical scenarios. The common principles of interaction in typical bilateral configurations have been generalized for asymmetry conditions, inspired by the plasma and by the hardware, including asymmetric plasma event and magnetic system fault cases. The specification of loads is supported by the technology of functional approximation of nodal and distributed data by continuous patterns/analytical interpolants. The global model of interactions together with the mesh-independent analytical format of output provides the source of self-consistent and transferable data on the spatial distribution of the system of forces for assessments of structural performance of the components, assemblies and supporting structures. The numerical model used is fully parametrized, which makes it very suitable for multi-variant and sensitivity studies (positioning, off

  2. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  3. iCub-HRI: A Software Framework for Complex Human–Robot Interaction Scenarios on the iCub Humanoid Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Fischer

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Generating complex, human-like behavior in a humanoid robot like the iCub requires the integration of a wide range of open source components and a scalable cognitive architecture. Hence, we present the iCub-HRI library which provides convenience wrappers for components related to perception (object recognition, agent tracking, speech recognition, and touch detection, object manipulation (basic and complex motor actions, and social interaction (speech synthesis and joint attention exposed as a C++ library with bindings for Java (allowing to use iCub-HRI within Matlab and Python. In addition to previously integrated components, the library allows for simple extension to new components and rapid prototyping by adapting to changes in interfaces between components. We also provide a set of modules which make use of the library, such as a high-level knowledge acquisition module and an action recognition module. The proposed architecture has been successfully employed for a complex human–robot interaction scenario involving the acquisition of language capabilities, execution of goal-oriented behavior and expression of a verbal narrative of the robot’s experience in the world. Accompanying this paper is a tutorial which allows a subset of this interaction to be reproduced. The architecture is aimed at researchers familiarizing themselves with the iCub ecosystem, as well as expert users, and we expect the library to be widely used in the iCub community.

  4. Atomic and plasma-material interaction data for fusion. Vol.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency, through its Atomic and Molecular Data Unit, coordinates a wide spectrum of programmes for the compilation, evaluation, and generation of atomic, molecular, and plasma-wall interaction data for fusion research. The present, first, volume of Atomic and Plasma-Material Interaction Data for Fusion, contains extended versions of the reviews presented at the IAEA Advisory Group Meeting on Particle-Surface Interaction Data for Fusion, held 19-21 April 1989 at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, The plasma-wall interaction processes covered here are those considered most important for the operational performance of magnetic confinement fusion reactors. In addition to processes due to particle impact under normal operation, plasma-wall interaction effects due to off-normal plasma events (disruptions, electron runaway bombardment) are covered, and a summary of the status of data information on these processes is given from the point of view of magnetic fusion reactor design. Refs, figs and tabs

  5. Electron injection and acceleration in the plasma bubble regime driven by an ultraintense laser pulse combined with using dense-plasma wall and block

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xue-Yan; Xie, Bai-Song; Wu, Hai-Cheng; Zhang, Shan; Hong, Xue-Ren; Aimidula, Aimierding

    2012-03-01

    An optimizing and alternative scheme for electron injection and acceleration in the wake bubble driven by an ultraintense laser pulse is presented. In this scheme, the dense-plasma wall with an inner diameter matching the expected bubble size is placed along laser propagation direction. Meanwhile, a dense-plasma block dense-plasma is adhered inward transversely at some certain position of the wall. Particle-in-cell simulations are performed, which demonstrate that the block plays an important role in the first electron injection and acceleration. The result shows that a collimated electron bunch with a total number of about 4.04×108μm-1 can be generated and accelerated stably to 1.61 GeV peak energy with 2.6% energy spread. The block contributes about 50% to the accelerated electron injection bunch by tracing and sorting statistically the source.

  6. Effect of gas injection during LH wave coupling at ITER-relevant plasma-wall distances in JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekedahl, A; Goniche, M; Basiuk, V; Delpech, L; Imbeaux, F; Joffrin, E; Loarer, T; Rantamaeki, K; Mailloux, J; Alper, B; Baranov, Y; Beaumont, P; Corrigan, G; Erents, K; Hawkes, N; McDonald, D; Petrzilka, V; Granucci, G; Hobirk, J; Kirov, K

    2009-01-01

    Good coupling of lower hybrid (LH) waves has been demonstrated in different H-mode scenarios in JET, at high triangularity (δ ∼ 0.4) and at large distance between the last closed flux surface and the LH launcher (up to 15 cm). Local gas injection of D 2 in the region magnetically connected to the LH launcher is used for increasing the local density in the scrape-off layer (SOL). Reciprocating Langmuir probe measurements magnetically connected to the LH launcher indicate that the electron density profile flattens in the far SOL during gas injection and LH power application. Some degradation in normalized H-mode confinement, as given by the H98(y,2)-factor, could be observed at high gas injection rates in these scenarios, but this was rather due to total gas injection and not specifically to the local gas puffing used for LH coupling. Furthermore, experiments carried out in L-mode plasmas in order to evaluate the effect on the LH current drive efficiency, when using local gas injection to improve the coupling, indicate only a small degradation (ΔI LH /I LH ∼ 15%). This effect is largely compensated by the improvement in coupling and thus increase in coupled power when using gas puffing.

  7. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  8. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  9. Comparison of 2 resident learning tools-interactive screen-based simulated case scenarios versus problem-based learning discussions: a prospective quasi-crossover cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shobana; Khanna, Ashish; Argalious, Maged; Kimatian, Stephen J; Mascha, Edward J; Makarova, Natalya; Nada, Eman M; Elsharkawy, Hesham; Firoozbakhsh, Farhad; Avitsian, Rafi

    2016-02-01

    Simulation-based learning is emerging as an alternative educational tool in this era of a relative shortfall of teaching anesthesiologists. The objective of the study is to assess whether screen-based (interactive computer simulated) case scenarios are more effective than problem-based learning discussions (PBLDs) in improving test scores 4 and 8 weeks after these interventions in anesthesia residents during their first neuroanesthesia rotation. Prospective, nonblinded quasi-crossover study. Cleveland Clinic. Anesthesiology residents. Two case scenarios were delivered from the Anesoft software as screen-based sessions, and parallel scripts were developed for 2 PBLDs. Each resident underwent both types of training sessions, starting with the PBLD session, and the 2 cases were alternated each month (ie, in 1 month, the screen-based intervention used case 1 and the PBLD used case 2, and vice versa for the next month). Test scores before the rotation (baseline), immediately after the rotation (4 weeks after the start of the rotation), and 8 weeks after the start of rotation were collected on each topic from each resident. The effect of training method on improvement in test scores was assessed using a linear mixed-effects model. Compared to the departmental standard of PBLD, the simulation method did not improve either the 4- or 8-week mean test scores (P = .41 and P = .40 for training method effect on 4- and 8-week scores, respectively). Resident satisfaction with the simulation module on a 5-point Likert scale showed subjective evidence of a positive impact on resident education. Screen-based simulators were not more effective than PBLD for education during the neuroanesthesia rotation in anesthesia residency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  11. Radiation in plasma target interaction events typical for ITER tokamak disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuerz, H.; Bazylev, B.; Landman, I.; Safronov, V.

    1996-01-01

    Plasma wall interactions under conditions simulating ITER hard disruptions and ELMs are studied at the plasma gun facilities 2MK-200 CUSP and MK-200 UG at Troitsk. The experimental data for carbon plasma shields are used for validation of the theoretical modeling of the plasma wall interaction. The important features of the non-LTE plasma shield such as temperature and density distribution, its evolution and the conversion efficiency of the energy of the plasma stream into total and soft x-ray radiation from highly ionized evaporated target material and the energy balance are reproduced quite well. Thus a realistic modelling of ITER disruptive plasma wall interaction using the validated models is now possible. 8 refs., 6 figs

  12. Weighing neutrinos in the scenario of vacuum energy interacting with cold dark matter: application of the parameterized post-Friedmann approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Rui-Yun; Li, Yun-He; Zhang, Jing-Fei; Zhang, Xin, E-mail: guoruiyun110@163.com, E-mail: liyh19881206@126.com, E-mail: jfzhang@mail.neu.edu.cn, E-mail: zhangxin@mail.neu.edu.cn [Department of Physics, College of Sciences, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004 (China)

    2017-05-01

    We constrain the neutrino mass in the scenario of vacuum energy interacting with cold dark matter by using current cosmological observations. To avoid the large-scale instability problem in interacting dark energy models, we employ the parameterized post-Friedmann (PPF) approach to do the calculation of perturbation evolution, for the Q = β H ρ{sub c} and Q = β H ρ{sub Λ} models. The current observational data sets used in this work include Planck (cosmic microwave background), BSH (baryon acoustic oscillations, type Ia supernovae, and Hubble constant), and LSS (redshift space distortions and weak lensing). According to the constraint results, we find that β > 0 at more than 1σ level for the Q = β H ρ{sub c} model, which indicates that cold dark matter decays into vacuum energy; while β = 0 is consistent with the current data at 1σ level for the Q = β H ρ{sub Λ} model. Taking the ΛCDM model as a baseline model, we find that a smaller upper limit, ∑ m {sub ν} < 0.11 eV (2σ), is induced by the latest BAO BOSS DR12 data and the Hubble constant measurement H {sub 0} = 73.00 ± 1.75 km s{sup −1} Mpc{sup −1}. For the Q = β H ρ{sub c} model, we obtain ∑ m {sub ν}<0.20 eV (2σ) from Planck+BSH. For the Q = β H ρ{sub Λ} model, ∑ m {sub ν}<0.10 eV (2σ) and ∑ m {sub ν}<0.14 eV (2σ) are derived from Planck+BSH and Planck+BSH+LSS, respectively. We show that these smaller upper limits on ∑ m {sub ν} are affected more or less by the tension between H {sub 0} and other observational data.

  13. Atomic data for controlled fusion research. Volume III. Particle interactions with surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, E.W.

    1985-02-01

    This report provides a handbook of data concerning particle solid interactions that are relevant to plasma-wall interactions in fusion devices. Published data have been collected, assessed, and represented by a single functional relationship which is presented in both tabular and graphical form. Mechanisms reviewed here include sputtering, secondary electron emission, particle reflection, and trapping

  14. Plasma-wall interactions data compendium-2. ''Hydrogen retention property, diffusion and recombination coefficients database for selected plasma-facing materials''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuhiro, Kenjirou [Osaka Univ., Osaka (Japan); Iwakiri, Hirotomo [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Hirooka, Yoshi [National Inst. for Fusion Science, Toki, Gifu (Japan); Yamamura, Yasunori [Okayama Univ. of Scinece, Okayama (Japan); Morita, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

    2002-08-01

    This report will present additional data to those included in the previous report of this series. These new data are on the hydrogen (deuterium) trapping properties of graphite materials. The units on the data on hydrogen (deuterium) diffusion and surface recombination coefficients have been updated to adopt the SI unit system. Also, the graphic representations of previously compiled data on hydrogen (deuterium) retention have been improved for better understanding. For the sake of completeness, this report will present all these data in the improved format. (author)

  15. Numerical analysis of ion temperature effects to the plasma wall transition using a one-dimensional two-fluid model. I. Finite Debye to ionization length ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyergyek, T.; Kovačič, J.

    2017-06-01

    A one-dimensional, two-fluid, steady state model is used for the analysis of ion temperature effects to the plasma-wall transition. In this paper, the model is solved for a finite ratio ɛ between the Debye and the ionization length, while in Part II [T. Gyergyek and J. Kovačič, Phys Plasmas 24, 063506 (2017)], the solutions for ɛ = 0 are presented. Ion temperature is treated as a given, independent parameter and it is included in the model as a boundary condition. It is shown that when the ion temperature larger than zero is selected, the ion flow velocity and the electric field at the boundary must be consistent with the selected ion temperature. A numerical procedure, how to determine such "consistent boundary conditions," is proposed, and a simple relation between the ion temperature and ion velocity at the boundary of the system is found. The effects of the ion temperature to the pre-sheath length, potential, ion temperature, and ion density drops in the pre-sheath and in the sheath are investigated. It is concluded that larger ion temperature results in a better shielding of the plasma from the wall. An attempt is made to include the ion heat flux qi into the model in its simplest form q i = - K ' /d T i d x , where K ' is a constant heat conduction coefficient. It is shown that inclusion of such a term into the energy transfer equation introduces an additional ion heating mechanism into the system and the ion flow then becomes isothermal instead of adiabatic even in the sheath.

  16. Rippled plasma wall accelerating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavenago, M.

    1992-01-01

    A concept to form a hot, pulsed, inhomogeneous plasma and to use it as a linac structure is presented. The plasma spatial distribution is controlled by an external magnetic field and by the location of thermionic emitters; microwave ECR heating at frequency ω 1 favours plasma build up and reduces plasma resistivity. A shorter microwave pulse with frequency ω 2 ≠ ω 1 excites a longitudinal mode. An expression for the maximum attainable accelerating field is found. A linearized theory of accelerating modes is given. (Author) 6 refs., 3 figs

  17. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  18. Atomic and plasma-material interaction data for fusion. V.4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency, through its Atomic and Molecular Data Unit, coordinates a wide spectrum of programmes for the compilation, evaluation, and generation of atomic, molecular, and plasma-wall interaction data for fusion research. The present volume is exclusively devoted to cross sections for collisions of hydrogen atoms with electron, protons and multiply charged ions

  19. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  20. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  1. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  2. Workbench experiments on interaction of nuclear fuel with channel reactor materials: the LFCM congestions criticality and accident scenario in both re-examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baryakhtar, V.; Gonchar, V.; Zhidkov, A.

    2002-01-01

    The heavy radioecological consequences of 1986 accident were mainly stipulated by destruction of both a significant part of fuel envelopes and fuel matrix due to high-temperature interaction with silicates, when nuclear fuel has lost an important property to keep the fission products inside its volume. In this respect the silicate material application in thermal-insulating filling is a crucial fault had been made when Chornobyl NPP channel reactor designing

  3. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  4. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  5. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  6. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  7. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  8. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  9. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  10. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  11. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  12. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  13. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  14. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  15. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  16. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  17. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  18. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  19. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  20. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  1. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  2. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  3. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  4. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  5. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  6. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  7. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  8. Ion collisions and deceleration in laser-produced plasma-jet interaction with walls

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Renner, Oldřich; Krouský, Eduard; Liska, R.; Šmíd, M.; Larroche, O.; Dalimier, E.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 56, - (2011), T165-T174 ISSN 0001-7043 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC528; GA ČR GAP205/10/0814 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100523 Keywords : laser-produced plasma jets * plasma-wall interaction * plasma diagnostics * X-ray spectroscopy * fluid and kinetic plasma simulation Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics

  9. Reflectivity reduction of retro-reflector installed in LHD due to plasma surface interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, N.; Ohtawa, Y.; Ebihara, A.; Akiyama, T.; Tokitani, M.; Ashikawa, N.; Kawahata, K.

    2008-10-01

    Optical reflectivity of the retro-reflector installed in LHD as the first mirror was reduced seriously by plasma wall interaction. In order to understand the mechanism of the reflectivity reduction, optical and material properties of the mirror surfaces have been examined extensively. It was found that the deposited impurity layers caused the serious reduction of the reflectivity. Formation of iron oxide, bulges structure and He bubbles are the major factors for the reflectivity reduction in the wide wave length range. (author)

  10. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  11. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  12. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  13. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  14. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  15. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  16. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  17. INTERACT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jochum, Elizabeth; Borggreen, Gunhild; Murphey, TD

    This paper considers the impact of visual art and performance on robotics and human-computer interaction and outlines a research project that combines puppetry and live performance with robotics. Kinesics—communication through movement—is the foundation of many theatre and performance traditions ...

  18. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  19. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  20. Plasma wall particle balance in Tore Supra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grisolia, C.; Ghendrih, P.; Pegourie, B.; Grosman, A.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the particle balance between the carbon wall and the plasma is presented. One finds that the effective particle content of the wall which governs the plasma equilibrium density departs from the deposited number of particles. This effect is dominant for the fully desaturated wall. A scaling law of the plasma density in terms of the wall effective particle content has been obtained. Moreover, the experimental data allows to estimate the plasma particle confinement time. Values ranging from 0.2 s to 0.5 s are found depending on the density. An analytical functional dependence of the particle confinement time is obtained

  1. Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Іванович Пушкар

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

  2. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  3. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  6. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    -oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

  7. Economic and Ecological Consequences of Four European Land Use Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eickhout, B.; Meijl, van H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Rheenen, van T.

    2007-01-01

    The impact of globalization on trade, production and land use is key to the Doha development round. This paper deals with the complex interaction between agricultural trade, production, land-use change and environmental consequences on the basis of four different scenarios. In these scenarios, major

  8. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  9. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  10. Tritium-surface interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirkaldy, J.S.

    1983-06-01

    The report deals broadly with tritium-surface interactions as they relate to a fusion power reactor enterprise, viz., the vacuum chamber, first wall, peripherals, pumping, fuel recycling, isotope separation, repair and maintenance, decontamination and safety. The main emphasis is on plasma-surface interactions and the selection of materials for fusion chamber duty. A comprehensive review of the international (particularly U.S.) research and development is presented based upon a literature review (about 1 000 reports and papers) and upon visits to key laboratories, Sandia, Albuquerque, Sandia, Livermore and EGβG Idaho. An inventory of Canadian expertise and facilities for RβD on tritium-surface interactions is also presented. A number of proposals are made for the direction of an optimal Canadian RβD program, emphasizing the importance of building on strength in both the technological and fundamental areas. A compendium of specific projects and project areas is presented dealing primarily with plasma-wall interactions and permeation, anti-permeation materials and surfaces and health, safety and environmental considerations. Potential areas of industrial spinoff are identified

  11. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  12. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  13. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  14. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  15. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  16. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  17. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  18. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  19. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  20. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  1. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  2. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  3. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  4. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  5. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  6. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  7. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  8. Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjedde, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

  9. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  10. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  11. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  12. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  13. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  14. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  15. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  16. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  18. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  19. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  20. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

  1. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  2. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  3. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  4. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  5. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  6. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios Conference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    Attack-defence trees are a powerful technique for formally evaluating attack-defence scenarios. They represent in an intuitive, graphical way the interaction between an attacker and a defender who compete in order to achieve conflicting objectives. We propose a novel framework for the formal

  7. Data Input and Content Exploration in Scenarios with Restrictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Pedrosa

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractAs technology evolves, new devices and interaction techniques are developed. These transformations create several challenges in terms of usability and user experience. Our research faces some challenges for data input or content exploration in scenarios with restrictions. It is not our

  8. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  9. The Effect of Social Interaction and Tourism Scenario on Tourism Demand:Empirical Research Based on Spring Festival Golden Week%社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨勇

    2016-01-01

    As a branch of economics, consumer economics is a broad field, principally concerning the microeconomic analysis of behavior in terms of consumers, families, or individuals. Consumer economics sometimes encompasses tourism demand and its influencing factors. However, conventional economic research of tourism demand has shown little interest in analyzing tourism demand based on tourism properties and characteristics—especially from a Chinese cultural perspective. Conventional economic consumer theory is insufficient to explain the phenomenon of tourism demand, whereby tourists obtain utility from social interaction and the tourism scenario. Regarding the influencing factors of consumer tourism demand identified in related academic sources, the most used explanatory variables are the following:tourists’regular income;tourism prices at a destination compared with those at home;tourism prices in competing destinations (i.e., substitute prices);and exchange rates. These factors are also the most important determinants of tourism demand. The explanatory variables included in previous tourism demand models have varied enormously according to the researcher’s objectives and background. In addition to such conventional factors as personal income, prominent variables used to explain consumer tourism demand are related to social interaction and tourism scenario, for example, travel companions, traffic congestion, and type of tourist attraction. In this paper, the theoretical cornerstone is Becker’s social interaction theory. That illustrates how consumers maximize their tourism utility subject to constraints on their social income. In the framework of this paper, we introduce the factors of social interaction and tourism scenario: we emphasize the effect of those two factors on tourism demand. We then provide a number of hypotheses based on theoretical analysis. These hypotheses state that tourism demand falls as the importance of social interaction rises—even when

  10. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  11. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niedermaier Max

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  12. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  13. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  14. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  15. Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freynet David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

  16. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  17. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  18. Workshop on Recommendation in Complex Scenarios (ComplexRec 2017)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogers, Toine; Koolen, Marijn; Mobasher, Bamshad

    2017-01-01

    Recommendation algorithms for ratings prediction and item ranking have steadily matured during the past decade. However, these state-of-the-art algorithms are typically applied in relatively straightforward scenarios. In reality, recommendation is often a more complex problem: it is usually just...... a single step in the user's more complex background need. These background needs can often place a variety of constraints on which recommendations are interesting to the user and when they are appropriate. However, relatively little research has been done on these complex recommendation scenarios....... The ComplexRec 2017 workshop addressed this by providing an interactive venue for discussing approaches to recommendation in complex scenarios that have no simple one-size-fits-all-solution....

  19. Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao

    This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from....... By linking our prototype translators with existing model checker Uppaal and game solver Uppaal-Tiga, we show that these methods contribute to the interaction correctness and timeliness of early system designs. The thesis also shows that testing a real-time reactive system can be viewed as playing a timed...... communicating real-time systems can be modeled and specified with LSC. By translating LSC to timed automata (TAs), we reduce scenario-based model consistency checking and property verification to CTL real-time model checking problems, and reduce scenario-based synthesis to a timed game solving problem...

  20. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  1. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  2. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  3. Controlling simulations of human-artifact interaction with scenario bundles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Vegte, W.F.; Rusák, Z.

    2008-01-01

    We introduce a methodology for modeling and simulating fully virtual human-artifact systems, aiming to resolve two issues in virtual prototyping: (i) integration of distinct modeling and simulation approaches, and (ii) extending the deployability of simulations towards conceptual design. We are

  4. Visual Environment for Designing Interactive Learning Scenarios with Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, José Miguel; Ruiz-Rube, Iván; Dodero, Juan Manuel; Figueiredo, Mauro

    2016-01-01

    Augmented Reality (AR) technology allows the inclusion of virtual elements on a vision of actual physical environment for the creation of a mixed reality in real time. This kind of technology can be used in educational settings. However, the current AR authoring tools present several drawbacks, such as, the lack of a mechanism for tracking the…

  5. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  6. Scenarios of power transmission networks; Cenarios de redes de transmissao de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza Fonseca, L.G. de; Savi, T C.O.; Morozowski Filho, M; Camargo, C C [ELETROSUL, Florianopolis, SC (Brazil)

    1985-12-31

    This work discusses the electrical network expansion considering long term horizons and a purpose of methodology for the establishment of transmission network scenarios. As part of the transmission scenario studies the network expansion problem is described by linearized power flow models and, for transmission system analysis and synthesis, the minimum effort criteria and interactive SINTRA program are used. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-01-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

  8. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  9. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  10. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  11. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation. Furthermore, the survey reveals that the incorporation of provided uncertainty depends on the user type: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of the uncertainty. For the development of new Swiss climate scenarios the survey results on end-user needs are considered as a starting point for further interactions with users. This is accomplished with the establishment of a sounding board accompagning the project throught its time span. Furthermore, explicit stakeholder-dialogues with key users of different sectors will be carried during the project phase.

  12. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  13. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  14. Two views on the Bjorken scenario for ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions

    CERN Multimedia

    Maire, Antonin

    2011-01-01

    The sketch describes the Bjorken scenario foreseen for the collision of ultra-relativistic heavy-ions, leading to the creation of strongly-interacting hot and dense deconfined matter, the so-called Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP).

  15. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  16. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  17. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  18. Sugeno integral ranking of release scenarios in a low and intermediate waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. Ho; Kim, Tae Woon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2004-01-01

    In the present study, a multi criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem of ranking of important radionuclide release scenarios in a low and intermediate radioactive waste repository is to treat on the basis of λ-fuzzy measures and Sugeno integral. Ranking of important scenarios can lead to the provision of more effective safety measure in a design stage of the repository. The ranking is determined by a relative degree of appropriateness of scenario alternatives. To demonstrate a validation of the proposed approach to ranking of release scenarios, results of the previous AHP study are used and compared with them of the present SIAHP approach. Since the AHP approach uses importance weight based on additive probability measures, the interaction among criteria is ignored. The comparison of scenarios ranking obtained from these two approaches enables us to figure out the effect of different models for interaction among criteria

  19. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  20. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  1. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  2. Geoprospective: from acquired data to scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escalier des Orres, P.; Blanc, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radioactive waste deep disposal (RFS N. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. Three periods are considered in the study: the initial period (0-500 years AP) during which only water circulations and heat transfers are considered in the waste-rock interaction problem; the permanent regime period (500-10000 years AP) and the subsequent period (10000-50000 years AP) during which changes in landscape morphology due to human activity and climate changes have to be considered. In particular, global climatic oscillations can lead to glaciations with an amplitude equivalent to those known for the Quaternary period and with possible influence on waste disposals integrity. The simulation of an ice-cap development over Europe has been attempted but no convincing model could be obtained so-far. (J.S.). 11 refs., 3 figs

  3. Toward predictive scenarios of planetary migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruteau, Clement

    2008-01-01

    The recent detection of extra-solar planets has provided an exciting opportunity to test our theories of planet formation and evolution. An impressive result is the significant proportion of giant planets located much closer to their star than Mercury is from our own Sun. These planets should have formed further out in the protoplanetary disc, thus one needs to explain how they could move closer to their host star. Remarkably enough, such an explanation was proposed well before the discovery of the first exo-planet. It considered the interaction between a planet and the protoplanetary disc, which leads to a decrease of the planet's semi-major axis. This is known as planetary migration. Many studies have shown that the migration timescale of low-mass planets is much shorter than the lifetime of the disc. All planets should therefore have migrated to the vicinity of their host star. This is at least in contradiction with the locations of the planets in our Solar System. In order to elaborate predictive scenarios of planet formation and evolution, it is of primary interest to refine our understanding of disc-planet interactions. The inclusion of the disc self-gravity is an illustration of this. With analytical and numerical arguments, I show that discarding the self-gravity leads to a significant overestimate of the differential Lindblad torque for migrating low-mass planets. Another aspect explored in this thesis is the impact of the gas thermodynamics on migration. I show that the thermodynamic evolution of the disc induces an additional contribution to the corotation torque, which may dramatically slow down or even reverse the migration of low-mass planets. (author) [fr

  4. Large fire scenarios in relation to sabotage of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contri, P.; Guerpinar, A.; ); Schneider, U.

    2005-01-01

    The analyses of sabotage scenarios carried out in recent years identified two major damaging mechanisms associated with such scenarios, namely: the mechanical interaction of solid bodies or pressure waves with the installations and the fire-related effects from burning substances. While the former effect may be addressed by available analytical tools developed for accidental scenarios, the latter deserves a new, specific engineering effort. In fact, all nuclear facilities are designed in relation to accidental fires; even so, they need to be assessed in relation to sabotage induced fire scenarios due to the special characteristics of such scenarios, not addressed by the current engineering practice for the design of nuclear installations. Conventional fire hazard analysis is based on the hypothesis of the presence of combustible materials in the buildings and limited number of contemporaneous sources of fire. In addition, conventional fire safety assessment relies upon the presence of mitigation measures and fire related operational procedures. In a sabotage event the validity of all these assumptions need to be checked and if the assumptions cannot be supported, then the analysis should be revised and other alternatives of protection should be developed. Also the implementation of emergency planning should be reviewed to take account of this concern. This paper collects state-of-the-art experience from some Countries, which represents the background information for the development of new IAEA documents in this field. The paper reviews how the current design practice for nuclear installations can cope with large fire scenarios caused by malevolent actions and provides recommendations to designers and operators on how to address these issues in a reasonable framework. (authors)

  5. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  6. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  7. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  8. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  9. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  10. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  11. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  12. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  13. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  14. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  15. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  16. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  17. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  18. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  19. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  20. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  2. Short distance modifications to Newton's law in SUSY braneworld scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palma, G.A.

    2007-10-01

    In braneworld models coming from string theory one generally encounters massless scalar degrees of freedom -moduli- parameterizing the volume of small compact extra-dimensions. Here we discuss the effects of such moduli on Newton's law for a fairly general 5-D supersymmetric braneworld scenario with a bulk scalar field φ.We show that the Newtonian potential describing the gravitational interaction between two bodies localized on the visible brane picks up a non-trivial contribution at short distances that depends on the shape of the superpotential W(φ) of the theory. In particular, we compute this contribution for dilatonic braneworld scenarios W(φ) ∝ e αφ (where a is a constant) and discuss the particular case of 5-D Heterotic M-theory. (orig.)

  3. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  4. Interactive pinball business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buur, Jacob; Gudiksen, Sune Klok

    2012-01-01

    Interaction design expands into new fields. Interaction design and business model innovation is a promising meeting of disciplines: Many businesses see the need to rethink their ways of doing business, and, as business models pose highly dynamic and interactive problems, interaction design has much...... with hypotheses and experiment with scenarios as a way of innovating their business models, and why this is so...... to offer. This paper compares 'tangible business models' in the form of pinball-like contraptions, designed by interaction design students with those developed by groups of professionals around concrete business issues. We will show how the interactive models encourage business people to play...

  5. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  6. Experimental Investigation of the Plasma-Wall Transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lunt, Tilmann; Fussmann, Gerd; Waldmann, Ole

    2008-01-01

    We report on measurements of the ion velocity distribution as a function of distance to a target immersed in a magnetized argon plasma. Two situations are investigated: (a) practically the whole plasma streams onto a large target, and (b) the size of the target is significantly smaller than the plasma diameter. The Mach number M=u/c s decreases from M=1 at the target surface to values around 0.5 at a typical scale of λ a =30 mm and λ b =5 mm, respectively. In order to explain these small decay lengths, the measurements of case (a) are compared with a source-diffusion model and those of (b) to Hutchinson's model. In (a) good agreement between modeling and experiment is obtained assuming a low neutral gas temperature. The data in (b) also agree excellently with modeled profiles, although the large fitting parameter D=20 m 2 /s indicates that other processes than diffusion contribute significantly to the transport

  7. Comprehensive Study of Plasma-Wall Sheath Transport Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-26

    the floating potential of wall material samples immersed in a low-temperature plasma were studied. Hysteresis is found to be due to secondary electron...continued research into plasma sheath physics. Hysteresis effects observed in the floating potential of wall material samples immersed in a low... Journal of Applied Physics, Volume 119, March 2016, pp. 113305 1-5. DISTRIBUTION A: Distribution approved for public release. 8 Figure 2

  8. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    scenario components, next steps include capability for dynamic interaction between NCA4 products and CRT to permit users to explore and customize relevant information for their decision at spatial scales that matter to them, as well as links to more in-depth CRT content.

  9. Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

  10. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  11. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  12. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  13. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  14. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  15. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  16. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  17. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  18. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  19. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  20. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  1. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  2. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  3. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  4. Atomic and Plasma-Material Interaction Data for Fusion. V. 16

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braams, B.J.; Chung, H.-K.

    2014-03-01

    A wide variety of atomic, molecular, radiative and plasma-wall interaction processes involving a mixture of atoms, ions and molecules occur in the plasmas produced in nuclear fusion experiments. In the low temperature divertor and near wall region, molecules and molecular ions are formed. The plasma particles react with electrons and with each other. Plasma modelling requires cross-sections and rate coefficients for all these processes, and in addition spectral signatures to support interpretation of data from fusion experiments. The mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency Nuclear Data Section (IAEA/NDS) in the area of atomic and molecular data is to enhance the competencies of Member States in their research into nuclear fusion through the provision of internationally recommended atomic, molecular, plasma-material interaction and material properties databases. One mechanism by which the IAEA pursues this mission is the Coordinated Research Project (CRP). The present volume of Atomic and Plasma-Material Interaction Data for Fusion contains contributions from participants in the CRP 'Atomic and Molecular Data for Plasma Modelling' (2004-2008). This CRP was concerned with data for processes in the near wall and divertor plasma and plasma-wall interaction in fusion experiments, with focus on cross-sections for molecular reactions. Participants in the CRP came from 14 different institutes, many with strong ties to fusion plasma modelling and experiment. D. Humbert of the Nuclear Data Section was scientific secretary of the CRP. Participants' contributions for this volume were collected and refereed after the conclusion of the CRP

  5. Visualizing alternative phosphorus scenarios for future food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina-Simone Neset

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialogue on the technical, behavioral and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real-time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialogue to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1 the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2 the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3 the potential of a decreased animal product consumption, and (4 the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency

  6. Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in

  7. Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

    2017-05-01

    In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

    2011-01-01

    The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

  9. Computer enhanced release scenario analysis for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Mullen, M.F.

    1979-01-01

    An interactive (user-oriented) computer tool is being developed at PNL to assist in the analysis of release scenarios for long-term safety assessment of a continental geologic nuclear waste repository. Emphasis is on characterizing the various ways the geologic and hydrologic system surrounding a repository might vary over the 10 6 to 10 7 years subsequent to final closure of the cavern. The potential disruptive phenomena are categorized as natural geologic and man-caused and tend to be synergistic in nature. The computer tool is designed to permit simulation of the system response as a function of the ongoing disruptive phenomena and time. It is designed to be operated in a determinatic manner, i.e., user selection of the desired scenarios and associated rate, magnitude, and lag time data; or in a stochastic mode. The stochastic mode involves establishing distributions for individual phenomena occurrence probabilities, rates, magnitudes, and phase relationships. A Monte-Carlo technique is then employed to generate a multitude of disruptive event scenarios, scan for breaches of the repository isolation, and develop input to the release consequence analysis task. To date, only a simplified one-dimensional version of the code has been completed. Significant modification and development is required to expand its dimensionality and apply the tool to any specific site

  10. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  11. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  12. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  13. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  14. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  15. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  16. An integrated pipeline to create and experience compelling scenarios in virtual reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Jan P.; Neumann, Carsten; Reiners, Dirk; Cruz-Neira, Carolina

    2011-03-01

    One of the main barriers to create and use compelling scenarios in virtual reality is the complexity and time-consuming efforts for modeling, element integration, and the software development to properly display and interact with the content in the available systems. Still today, most virtual reality applications are tedious to create and they are hard-wired to the specific display and interaction system available to the developers when creating the application. Furthermore, it is not possible to alter the content or the dynamics of the content once the application has been created. We present our research on designing a software pipeline that enables the creation of compelling scenarios with a fair degree of visual and interaction complexity in a semi-automated way. Specifically, we are targeting drivable urban scenarios, ranging from large cities to sparsely populated rural areas that incorporate both static components (e. g., houses, trees) and dynamic components (e. g., people, vehicles) as well as events, such as explosions or ambient noise. Our pipeline has four basic components. First, an environment designer, where users sketch the overall layout of the scenario, and an automated method constructs the 3D environment from the information in the sketch. Second, a scenario editor used for authoring the complete scenario, incorporate the dynamic elements and events, fine tune the automatically generated environment, define the execution conditions of the scenario, and set up any data gathering that may be necessary during the execution of the scenario. Third, a run-time environment for different virtual-reality systems provides users with the interactive experience as designed with the designer and the editor. And fourth, a bi-directional monitoring system that allows for capturing and modification of information from the virtual environment. One of the interesting capabilities of our pipeline is that scenarios can be built and modified on-the-fly as they are

  17. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  18. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  19. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  20. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  1. Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

    2009-08-01

    In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

  2. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  3. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  4. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  5. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  6. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  7. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  8. Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

  9. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  10. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  11. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  12. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  13. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  14. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  15. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  16. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  17. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  18. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  19. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  20. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  1. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  2. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  3. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  4. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant

  5. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  6. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  7. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  8. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  9. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  10. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  11. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  12. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  13. Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species

  14. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  15. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  16. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  17. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  18. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  19. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  20. Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

    2007-01-01

    In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

  1. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  2. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  3. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  4. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Conejero

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

  6. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  7. Interactive Foresight Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Mette Sanne; Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard; Jacobsen, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation...

  8. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  9. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  10. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  11. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  12. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  13. Public acceptance of management methods under different human-wildlife conflict scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Georgari, Marina; Baltzi, Kerasia; Baltzi, Ioanna

    2017-02-01

    Wildlife management seeks to minimise public controversy for successful application of wildlife control methods. Human dimensions research in wildlife seeks a better understanding of public preferences for effective human-wildlife conflict resolution. In face to face interviews, 630 adults in Greece were asked to rate on a 5-point Likert-like scale their acceptance of 3 management methods, i.e., do nothing, non-lethal control, and lethal control, in the context of 5 human-wildlife conflict scenarios: 1) corvids damage crops; 2) starlings damage crops; 3) starlings foul urban structures; 4) coypus damage crops; and 5) coypus transfer disease. Univariate GLMs determined occupation, hunting membership and their interaction as the stronger predictors of public acceptance, generating 4 stakeholder groups: the general public, farmers, hunters, and farmers-hunters. Differences in acceptance and consensus among stakeholder groups were assessed using the Potential for Conflict Index 2 (PCI 2 ). All 4 stakeholder groups agreed that doing nothing was unacceptable and non-lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios, with generally high consensus within and between groups. The lethal control method was more controversial and became increasingly more acceptable as the severity of scenarios was increased and between non-native and native species. Lethal control was unacceptable for the general public in all scenarios. Farmers accepted lethal methods in the corvids and starlings scenarios, were neutral in the coypus damage crops scenario, whereas they accepted lethal control when coypus transfer disease. Hunters' opinion was neutral in the corvids, starlings and coypus damage crops and starlings foul urban structures scenarios, but they accepted lethal methods in the coypus transfer disease scenario. Farmers-hunters considered lethal control acceptable in all 5 scenarios. Implications from this study could be used for designing a socio-ecological approach which incorporates

  14. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  15. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  16. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  17. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  18. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  19. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  20. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  1. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  2. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  3. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  4. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  5. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  6. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  7. 3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Da Costa, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

  8. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  9. TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

    1987-01-01

    A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  11. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  12. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  13. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

    2017-06-01

    The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

  14. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  15. Plasma surface interactions in Q-enhanced mirror systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, R.F.

    1978-01-01

    Two approaches to enhancement of the Q (energy gain) factor of mirror systems are under study at Livermore. These include the Tandem Mirror and the Field Reversed Mirror. Both of these new ideas preserve features of conventional mirror systems as far as plasma-wall interactions are concerned. Specifically in both approaches field lines exit from the ends of the system and impinge on walls located at a distance from the confinement chamber. It is possible to predict some aspects of the plasma/surface interactions of TM and FRM systems from experience obtained in the Livermore 2XIIB experiment. In particular, as observed in 2XIIB, effective isolation of the plasma from thermal contact with the ends owing to the development of sheath-like regions is to be expected. Studies presently underway directed toward still further enhancing the decoupling of the plasma from the effects of plasma surface interactions at the walls will be discussed, with particular reference to the problem of minimizing the effects of refluxing secondary electrons produced by plasma impact on the end walls

  16. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis?(NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  17. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  18. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  19. Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Kanudia , Amit; Gastineau , Pascal; BACHMANN , Till; PREISS , Philipp; STOFFREGEN , Alexander; VINOT , Simon; CHEZE , Benoît; Tchung-Ming , Stéphane; BOUVART , Frédérique

    2015-01-01

    SCelecTRA - Scenarios for the electrification of Transport is a collaborative project under the ERANET - Electromobility+ call for project and aims at: · identifying the conditions and public policies actions to develop road passenger electromobility in Europe for 2030, · assessing the environmental impacts of such policies via consequential Life Cycle Analysis as well as their external costs.; Sélectionné dans le cadre du programme ERANET- Electromobility+, le projet visait à identifier les ...

  20. A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

  1. Internal wave attractors: different scenarios of instability

    OpenAIRE

    Brouzet, Christophe; Ermanyuk, E. V.; Joubaud, Sylvain; Pillet, Grimaud; Dauxois, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an experimental study of different instability scenarios in a parallelogram-shaped internal wave attractor in a trapezoidal domain filled with a uniformly stratified fluid.Energy is injected into the system via the oscillatory motion of a vertical wall of the trapezoidal domain. Whole-field velocity measurements are performed with the conventional PIV technique. In the linear regime, the total kinetic energyof the fluid system is used to quantify th...

  2. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  3. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  4. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  5. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  6. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  8. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  9. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  10. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  11. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  12. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  13. Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

    1998-01-01

    This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

  14. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  15. Indentification and analysis of nonlinear transition scenarios using NOLOT/PSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, S.; Stolte, A.; Dallmann, U.C. (Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik)

    1999-01-01

    Laminar-turbulent transition of quasi-three-dimensional boundary-layer flows is investigated by nonlinear nonlocal instability theory based on parabolized stability equations (PSE). A strong TS-CF interaction scenario is described, which leads to a rapid rise in skin-friction coefficient indicating imminent breakdown of the laminar flow. The CF-CF interaction studies reproduce amplitude saturation observed in experiment, but do not provide an explanation for the final breakdown in crossflow-dominated boundary layers yet. (orig.)

  16. Indentification and analysis of nonlinear transition scenarios using NOLOT/PSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, S.; Stolte, A.; Dallmann, U.C. [Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik

    1999-12-01

    Laminar-turbulent transition of quasi-three-dimensional boundary-layer flows is investigated by nonlinear nonlocal instability theory based on parabolized stability equations (PSE). A strong TS-CF interaction scenario is described, which leads to a rapid rise in skin-friction coefficient indicating imminent breakdown of the laminar flow. The CF-CF interaction studies reproduce amplitude saturation observed in experiment, but do not provide an explanation for the final breakdown in crossflow-dominated boundary layers yet. (orig.)

  17. SIMULATIONS OF THE MAGELLANIC STREAM IN A FIRST INFALL SCENARIO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besla, G.; Hernquist, L.; Keres, D.; Kallivayalil, N.; Van der Marel, R. P.; Cox, T. J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent high-precision proper motions from the Hubble Space Telescope suggest that the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC, respectively) are either on their first passage or on an eccentric long period (>6 Gyr) orbit about the Milky Way (MW). This differs markedly from the canonical picture in which the Clouds travel on a quasi-periodic orbit about the MW (period of ∼2 Gyr). Without a short-period orbit about the MW, the origin of the Magellanic Stream, a young (1-2 Gyr old) coherent stream of H I gas that trails the Clouds ∼150 0 across the sky, can no longer be attributed to stripping by MW tides and/or ram pressure stripping by MW halo gas. We propose an alternative formation mechanism in which material is removed by LMC tides acting on the SMC before the system is accreted by the MW. We demonstrate the feasibility and generality of this scenario using an N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulation with cosmologically motivated initial conditions constrained by the observations. Under these conditions, we demonstrate that it is possible to explain the origin of the Magellanic Stream in a first infall scenario. This picture is generically applicable to any gas-rich dwarf galaxy pair infalling toward a massive host or interacting in isolation.

  18. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  19. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  20. An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battista, Alexis

    2017-01-01

    The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

  1. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  2. Hamilton-Jacobi formalism to warm inflationary scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayar, K.; Mohammadi, A.; Akhtari, L.; Saaidi, Kh.

    2017-01-01

    The Hamilton-Jacobi formalism as a powerful method is being utilized to reconsider the warm inflationary scenario, where the scalar field as the main component driving inflation interacts with other fields. Separating the context into strong and weak dissipative regimes, the goal is followed for two popular functions of Γ . Applying slow-rolling approximation, the required perturbation parameters are extracted and, by comparing to the latest Planck data, the free parameters are restricted. The possibility of producing an acceptable inflation is studied where the result shows that for all cases the model could successfully suggest the amplitude of scalar perturbation, scalar spectral index, its running, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  3. A blended learning scenario to enhance learners’ oral production skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hee-Kyung Kim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application may be beneficial to the learner in terms of pronunciation. Our methodological approach is based on task resolution (Ellis, 2003 in peer-to-peer collaborative settings and the spaced repetition concept (Ebbinghaus, 1885, cited by Dempster, 1988. The outcomes of our study show that the learners appreciated the possibility to interact with native speakers but most of them preferred synchronous communication for training their pronunciation skills.

  4. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  5. Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phung, Viet-Anh; Galushin, Sergey; Raub, Sebastian; Goronovski, Andrei; Villanueva, Walter; Kööp, Kaspar; Grishchenko, Dmitry; Kudinov, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small ( 100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small variations of the input

  6. Characteristics of debris in the lower head of a BWR in different severe accident scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phung, Viet-Anh, E-mail: vaphung@kth.se; Galushin, Sergey, E-mail: galushin@kth.se; Raub, Sebastian, E-mail: raub@kth.se; Goronovski, Andrei, E-mail: andreig@kth.se; Villanueva, Walter, E-mail: walterv@kth.se; Kööp, Kaspar, E-mail: kaspar@safety.sci.kth.se; Grishchenko, Dmitry, E-mail: dmitry@safety.sci.kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pavel@safety.sci.kth.se

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • Station blackout scenario with delayed recovery of safety systems in a Nordic BWR is considered. • Genetic algorithm and random sampling methods are used to explore accident scenario domain. • Main groups of scenarios are identified. • Ranges and distributions of characteristics of debris bed in the lower head are determined. - Abstract: Nordic boiling water reactors (BWRs) adopt ex-vessel debris cooling to terminate severe accident progression. Core melt released from the vessel into a deep pool of water is expected to fragment and form a coolable debris bed. Characteristics of corium melt ejection from the vessel determine conditions for molten fuel–coolant interactions (FCI) and debris bed formation. Non-coolable debris bed or steam explosion can threaten containment integrity. Vessel failure and melt ejection mode are determined by the in-vessel accident progression. Characteristics (such as mass, composition, thermal properties, timing of relocation, and decay heat) of the debris bed formed in the process of core relocation into the vessel lower plenum define conditions for the debris reheating, remelting, melt-vessel structure interactions, vessel failure and melt release. Thus core degradation and relocation are important sources of uncertainty for the success of the ex-vessel accident mitigation strategy. The goal of this work is improve understanding how accident scenario parameters, such as timing of failure and recovery of different safety systems can affect characteristics of the debris in the lower plenum. Station blackout scenario with delayed power recovery in a Nordic BWR is considered using MELCOR code. The recovery timing and capacity of safety systems were varied using genetic algorithm (GA) and random sampling methods to identify two main groups of scenarios: with relatively small (<20 tons) and large (>100 tons) amount of relocated debris. The domains are separated by the transition regions, in which relatively small

  7. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  8. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

  9. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  10. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  11. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-15

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  12. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  13. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  14. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  15. Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

    2008-11-01

    This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

  16. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  17. EDITORIAL: Plasma Surface Interactions for Fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-01

    Because plasma-boundary physics encompasses some of the most important unresolved issues for both the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project and future fusion power reactors, there is a strong interest in the fusion community for better understanding and characterization of plasma wall interactions. Chemical and physical sputtering cause the erosion of the limiters/divertor plates and vacuum vessel walls (made of C, Be and W, for example) and degrade fusion performance by diluting the fusion fuel and excessively cooling the core, while carbon redeposition could produce long-term in-vessel tritium retention, degrading the superior thermo-mechanical properties of the carbon materials. Mixed plasma-facing materials are proposed, requiring optimization for different power and particle flux characteristics. Knowledge of material properties as well as characteristics of the plasma material interaction are prerequisites for such optimizations. Computational power will soon reach hundreds of teraflops, so that theoretical and plasma science expertise can be matched with new experimental capabilities in order to mount a strong response to these challenges. To begin to address such questions, a Workshop on New Directions for Advanced Computer Simulations and Experiments in Fusion-Related Plasma Surface Interactions for Fusion (PSIF) was held at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory from 21 to 23 March, 2005. The purpose of the workshop was to bring together researchers in fusion related plasma wall interactions in order to address these topics and to identify the most needed and promising directions for study, to exchange opinions on the present depth of knowledge of surface properties for the main fusion-related materials, e.g., C, Be and W, especially for sputtering, reflection, and deuterium (tritium) retention properties. The goal was to suggest the most important next steps needed for such basic computational and experimental work to be facilitated

  18. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  19. Optimal neutral beam heating scenario for FED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hively, L.M.; Houlberg, W.A.; Attenberger, S.E.

    1981-01-01

    Optimal neutral beam heating scenarios are determined for FED based on a 1/one-half/-D transport analysis. Tradeoffs are examined between neutral beam energy, power, and species mix for positive ion systems. A ramped density startup is found to provide the most economical heating. The resulting plasma power requirements are reduced by 10-30% from a constant density startup. For beam energies between 100 and 200 keV, the power needed to heat the plasma does not decrease significantly as beam energy is increased. This is due to reduced ion heating, more power in the fractional energy components, and rising power supply requirements as beam energy increases

  20. The prosa methodology for scenario development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

  1. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  2. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  3. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  4. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

  5. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

  6. Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

    2013-04-01

    Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

  7. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

  8. Intra- and interpersonal coordination of goal-oriented movements in a working scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesper, Cordula; Stork, Sonja; Wiesbeck, Mathey

    2008-01-01

    We present a scenario for examining mechanisms of goal-oriented movement coordination in humans. Our aim is to determine behavioral rules and constraints that shape movement execution. Therefore, trajectories of hand and finger movements are recorded while participants perform a simple construction...... task. We measure different parameters of reaching and grasping and compare performance in a single-person versus a two-person condition. First results of a pilot study are shown. Finally, we discuss our scenario with respect to possible applications in human-robot interaction in a factory environment....

  9. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  10. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  11. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.O.

    1991-06-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the time-span considered for the disposal of nuclear fuel. Based on the present status of knowledge, this report discusses when future ice ages will occur and the possible changes in the geosphere that might be of importance for repository performance. The report is intended to be used as a basis when developing scenarios for safety analysis of final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both the ACLIN and Imbrie and Imbrie models suggest stadials (glaciations) at c. 20000, 60000 and 100000 years from now. The ACLIN model also suggests a glaciation period around 5000 years ahead. The next interglacial period will occur at c. 75000 years, according to the Imbrie and Imbrie model, while the ACLIN model suggests that interglacial conditions will not appear until 125000 years form now. Other models strongly support the 60000 year glaciation event. To some extent there is also support for the 20000 and 5000 year events. For the purpose of the SKB/TVO scenario it is suggested that smaller or large glaciations will occur at 5000, 20000 and 60000 years form now. Following the last glaciation, interglacial conditions will prevail at 75000 years. Thus after the first glaciation (5000 years) this is the earliest time when most part of Sweden and Finland will once again be resettled by man. (25 refs.)

  12. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1998-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  13. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  14. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  15. Hybrid Scenarios, Transmedia Storytelling, Expanded Ethnography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Domínguez Figaredo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The transformation of social scenarios due to the impact of digital technologies, introduces new possibilities for ethnographic research. Once the initial approaches focused on the dichotomy of “physical-virtual spaces” have been overcame, it comes a stage of maturity that allows the ethnographers to open new avenues for conceptual and analytical methodology applied in techno-social scenarios. This article discusses the evolution of some key dimensions of ethnography according to the new social and epistemological framework. The discussion is based on the analysis of expanded practices that take place in the new techno-social spaces, defined as hybrid environments, where technologies are embedded in the physical life of the subjects. On the one hand, we consider the production of actions based on the assembly of ideas, meanings and objects through digital mediation devices. It is also analysed the transmedia component of the narratives that make sense to allow the experiments. Underlying the analysis, some elements are introduced for discussion on the scope of expanded ethnographic research, the influence of transmedia phenomenon in the notion of “field” and the methods for determining the significance through digital storytelling.

  16. Probabilistic approach relative to fire scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabot, Jean-Luc

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop a calculation method of the occurring probability of the fire scenarios (detection, setting of the intervention, extinction) taking into account the size and the impact of the fire on the surroundings. This new method is called 'hybrid simulation'. It includes in a unique modelling the processing of continuous and discrete phenomenon. Moreover, to correctly represent fire scenarios, it is necessary not to take only into account the 'continuous' growing of the fire itself but of also 'discrete' events like detection, fire fighting and extinction, human behaviour and related faults. For that purpose we couple a code modelling the physical aspects of the fire to Petri nets which is able to model these 'discrete' events, this coupling consists of driving the 'continuous' model by the occurring of the 'discrete' events. This new technique which can be used to cover 'discrete' and 'continuous' events in a single calculation represents a solution to dynamic reliability calculation problems, for which there is a continuously increasing demand for analysing reliability, availability of production and maintainability of complex industrial systems. (author) [fr

  17. Impact of Transmutation Scenarios on Fuel Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saturnin, A.; Duret, B.; Allou, A.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.X.; Chabert, C.; Caron-Charles, M.; Garzenne, C.; Laugier, F.

    2015-01-01

    Minor actinides transmutation scenarios have been studied in the frame of the French Sustainable Radioactive Waste Management Act of 28 June 2006. Transmutation scenarios supposed the introduction of a sodium-cooled fast reactor fleet using homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes for the minor actinides. Americium, neptunium and curium (MA) or americium alone (Am) can be transmuted together in a homogeneous way embedded in FR-MOX fuel or incorporated in MA or Am-Bearing radial Blankets (MABB or AmBB). MA transmutation in Accelerator Driven System has also been studied while plutonium is being recycled in SFR. Assessments and comparisons of these advanced cycles have been performed considering technical and economic criteria. Transportation needs for fresh and used transmutation fuels is one of these criteria. Transmutation fuels have specific characteristics in terms of thermal load and neutron emissions. Thermal, radiation and criticality constraints have been taken into account in this study to suggest cask concepts for routine conditions of transport, to estimate the number of assemblies to be transported in a cask and the number of annual transports. Comparison with the no transmutation option, i.e. management of uranium and plutonium in SFRs, is also presented. Regarding these matters, no high difficulties appear for assemblies with limited content of Am (homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes). When fuels contain curium, technical transport uncertainties increase because of the important heat release requiring dividing fresh fuels and technological innovations development (MABB and ADS). (authors)

  18. A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

  19. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  1. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  2. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  3. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  4. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  5. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  6. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  7. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  8. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  9. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  10. Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes

    OpenAIRE

    Shee, Poon Kim

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are No War Scenario, Impasse Scenario and Peace Scenario. Ultimately, the way forward towards a viable solution to resolving the South China Sea maritime disputes between China and other claimant states depends on the political wisdom, will and determination of the disputing states. Lofty nationalistic aspirations have to be tempered with a degree of flexibility and pragm...

  11. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  12. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  13. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  14. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-01-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  15. Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R.; Valentine, G.; Crowe, B.

    1993-08-01

    Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants

  16. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-07-01

    Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  17. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  18. Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios; Geoprospective: des donnees acquises, aux scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalier des Orres, P [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. d` Evaluation de Surete; Blanc, P L [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection de l` Environnement et des Installations

    1994-06-01

    The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs.

  19. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

  20. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  1. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  2. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

  3. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  4. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  5. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  6. Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, Claude; Bacher, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

  7. Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, A.; Jokiniemi, J.K.; Laehde, A.; Routamo, T.; Lundstroem, P.; Tuomisto, H.; Dienstbier, J.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.; Dehbi, A.; Slootman, M.; Herranz, L.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.

    2005-01-01

    The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000-2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management interventions in steam generator tube rupture sequences, which either directly lead to severe accident conditions or are induced by other sequences leading to severe accidents. The models developed for fission product retention were to be included in severe accident codes. In addition, it was shown that existing models for turbulent deposition, which is the dominating deposition mechanism in dry conditions and at high flow rates, contain large uncertainties. The results of the project are applicable to various pressurised water reactors, including vertical steam generators (western PWR) and horizontal steam generators (VVER)

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  10. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  11. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  12. Intercode comparison of SBO scenario for AHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.; Kumar, Rajesh; Chatterjee, B.; Vijayan, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    This paper outlines the assessment of station blackout scenario for AHWR using last version of the French best estimate computer code CATHARE2/V2.5 2 and its comparison with RELAP5/mod3.2 findings. First, it explains the modelling of main heat transport system of AHWR and isolation Condenser loop along with GDWP in CATHARE2 followed by thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario and comparison of predictions with RELAP5 findings. The proposed Advanced Heavy Water Reactor is a 920 MWth Thorium based vertical pressure tube type boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor. One of the important passive design features of this reactor is that the heat removal is achieved through natural circulation of primary coolant at all allowed power levels with no primary coolant pumps.The prolonged SBO has been analyzed for AHWR using best estimate code CATHARE and results are compared with already available results of RELAP5 code. The ICs are able to remove decay heat with the help of GDWP and maintain core temperatures well with-in the limit. Decay heat is removed passively by GDWP initially by sensible heating and later by boil off as seen in long term calculation done with RELAP5. It has been found in that analysis, IC system is capable to remove decay heat for more than 7 days. The decay heat removal through IC path along with passive moderator and end shield cooling keeps the integrity of different system and maintains the core temperature well below the acceptance limit

  13. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  14. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  15. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-01

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review

  16. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  17. ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laqua H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

  18. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  19. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  20. Multi-scenario electromagnetic load analysis for CFETR and EAST magnet systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Weiwei; Liu, Xufeng, E-mail: lxf@ipp.ac.cn; Du, Shuangsong; Song, Yuntao

    2017-01-15

    Highlights: • A multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using interaction matrix method. • The simulator is applied to EM analysis of CFETR and EAST magnet system. • The EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios and the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are analyzed with the simulator. • Results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for multi-scenario and real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system. - Abstract: A technology for electromagnetic (EM) analysis of the current-carrying components in tokamaks has been proposed recently (Rozov, 2013; Rozov and Alekseev, 2015). According to this method, the EM loads can be obtained by a linear transform of given currents using the pre-computed interaction matrix. Based on this technology, a multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using Fortran programming in this paper. And the simulator is applied to EM analysis of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) magnet system. The pre-computed EM interaction matrices of CFETR and EAST magnet system are implanted into the simulator, then the EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios are evaluated with the simulator, and the comparison of the results with ANSYS method results validates the efficiency and accuracy of the method. Using the simulator, the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are further analyzed, and results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for the real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system.