WorldWideScience

Sample records for planck on-flight forecaster

  1. A constraint on Planck-scale modifications to electrodynamics with CMB polarization data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubitosi, Giulia; Pagano, Luca; Amelino-Camelia, Giovanni; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Cooray, Asantha

    2009-01-01

    We show that the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization data gathered by the BOOMERanG 2003 flight and WMAP provide an opportunity to investigate in-vacuo birefringence, of a type expected in some quantum pictures of space-time, with a sensitivity that extends even beyond the desired Planck-scale energy. In order to render this constraint more transparent we rely on a well studied phenomenological model of quantum-gravity-induced birefringence, in which one easily establishes that effects introduced at the Planck scale would amount to values of a dimensionless parameter, denoted by ξ, with respect to the Planck energy which are roughly of order 1. By combining BOOMERanG and WMAP data we estimate ξ ≅ −0.110±0.075 at the 68% c.l. Moreover, we forecast on the sensitivity to ξ achievable by future CMB polarization experiments (PLANCK, Spider, EPIC), which, in the absence of systematics, will be at the 1-σ confidence of 8.5 × 10 −4 (PLANCK), 6.1 × 10 −3 (Spider), and 1.0 × 10 −5 (EPIC) respectively. The cosmic variance-limited sensitivity from CMB is 6.1 × 10 −6

  2. A constraint on Planck-scale modifications to electrodynamics with CMB polarization data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubitosi, Giulia; Pagano, Luca; Amelino-Camelia, Giovanni; Melchiorri, Alessandro [Physics Department, University of Rome ' ' La Sapienza' ' and Sezione Roma1 INFN, P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome (Italy); Cooray, Asantha, E-mail: giulia.gubitosi@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: luca.pagano@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: giovanni.amelino-camelia@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: alessandro.melchiorri@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: acooray@uci.edu [Center for Cosmology, Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697 (United States)

    2009-08-01

    We show that the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization data gathered by the BOOMERanG 2003 flight and WMAP provide an opportunity to investigate in-vacuo birefringence, of a type expected in some quantum pictures of space-time, with a sensitivity that extends even beyond the desired Planck-scale energy. In order to render this constraint more transparent we rely on a well studied phenomenological model of quantum-gravity-induced birefringence, in which one easily establishes that effects introduced at the Planck scale would amount to values of a dimensionless parameter, denoted by ξ, with respect to the Planck energy which are roughly of order 1. By combining BOOMERanG and WMAP data we estimate ξ ≅ −0.110±0.075 at the 68% c.l. Moreover, we forecast on the sensitivity to ξ achievable by future CMB polarization experiments (PLANCK, Spider, EPIC), which, in the absence of systematics, will be at the 1-σ confidence of 8.5 × 10{sup −4} (PLANCK), 6.1 × 10{sup −3} (Spider), and 1.0 × 10{sup −5} (EPIC) respectively. The cosmic variance-limited sensitivity from CMB is 6.1 × 10{sup −6}.

  3. Planck-scale sensitivity of CMB polarization data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubitosi, Giulia; Pagano, Luca [Physics Department, University of Rome ' La Sapienza' , and Sezione Roma1 INFN P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Rome (Italy)

    2009-10-15

    We show that the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization data gathered by the BOOMERanG 2003 flight and WMAP provide an opportunity to investigate in-vacuo birefringence, of a type expected in some quantum pictures of space-time, with a sensitivity that extends even beyond the desired Planck-scale energy. In order to render this constraint more transparent we rely on a well studied phenomenological model of quantum-gravity-induced birefringence, in which one easily establishes that effects introduced at the Planck scale would amount to values of a dimensionless parameter, denoted by xi, with respect to the Planck energy which are roughly of order 1. By combining BOOMERanG and WMAP data we estimate xiapprox =-0.097+-0.075 at the 68% c.l. Moreover, we forecast on the sensitivity to xi achievable by future CMB polarization experiments (PLANCK, Spider, EPIC), which, in the absence of systematics, will be at the 1-sigma confidence of 8.5x10{sup -4} (PLANCK), 6.1x10{sup -3} (Spider), and 1.0x10{sup -5} (EPIC) respectively. The cosmic variance-limited sensitivity from CMB is 6.1x10{sup -6}.

  4. Planck-scale sensitivity of CMB polarization data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubitosi, Giulia; Pagano, Luca

    2009-01-01

    We show that the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization data gathered by the BOOMERanG 2003 flight and WMAP provide an opportunity to investigate in-vacuo birefringence, of a type expected in some quantum pictures of space-time, with a sensitivity that extends even beyond the desired Planck-scale energy. In order to render this constraint more transparent we rely on a well studied phenomenological model of quantum-gravity-induced birefringence, in which one easily establishes that effects introduced at the Planck scale would amount to values of a dimensionless parameter, denoted by ξ, with respect to the Planck energy which are roughly of order 1. By combining BOOMERanG and WMAP data we estimate ξ≅-0.097±0.075 at the 68% c.l. Moreover, we forecast on the sensitivity to ξ achievable by future CMB polarization experiments (PLANCK, Spider, EPIC), which, in the absence of systematics, will be at the 1-σ confidence of 8.5x10 -4 (PLANCK), 6.1x10 -3 (Spider), and 1.0x10 -5 (EPIC) respectively. The cosmic variance-limited sensitivity from CMB is 6.1x10 -6 .

  5. In-flight calibration and verification of the Planck-LFI instrument

    OpenAIRE

    Gregorio, Anna; Cuttaia, Francesco; Mennella, Aniello; Bersanelli, Marco; Maris, Michele; Meinhold, Peter; Sandri, Maura; Terenzi, Luca; Tomasi, Maurizio; Villa, Fabrizio; Frailis, Marco; Morgante, Gianluca; Pearson, Dave; Zacchei, Andrea; Battaglia, Paola

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the Planck-LFI in-flight calibration campaign. After a brief overview of the ground test campaigns, we describe in detail the calibration and performance verification (CPV) phase, carried out in space during and just after the cool-down of LFI. We discuss in detail the functionality verification, the tuning of the front-end and warm electronics, the preliminary performance assessment and the thermal susceptibility tests. The logic, sequence, goals and results of the i...

  6. АSSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF FLIGHT SAFETY LEVEL OF AIRLINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Prozorov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents methods based on probability theory and mathematical statistics for solving a number of basic problems: formation and evaluation of the current flight safety level; forecasting the level of flight safety; ranking the objects (planes, pilots in terms of flight safety; evaluation of the presence (or absence of control actions arising in the context of the organization of corporate safety management system. At the same time as the main source of information are considered forward-looking events received from flight data.

  7. Power spectra based Planck constraints on compensated isocurvature, and forecasts for LiteBIRD and CORE space missions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Väliviita, Jussi, E-mail: jussi.valiviita@helsinki.fi [University of Helsinki, Department of Physics and Helsinki Institute of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FIN-00014 University of Helsinki (Finland)

    2017-04-01

    Compensated isocurvature perturbations (CIP), where the primordial baryon and cold dark matter density perturbations cancel, do not cause total matter isocurvature perturbation. Consequently, at the linear order in the baryon density contrast Δ, a mixture of CIP and the adiabatic mode leads to the same CMB spectra as the pure adiabatic mode. Only recently, Muñoz et al. showed that at the second order CIP leaves an imprint in the observable CMB by smoothing the power spectra in a similar manner as lensing. This causes a strong degeneracy between the CIP variance Δ{sub rms}{sup 2} ≡ (Δ{sup 2}) and the phenomenological lensing parameter A {sub L}. We study several combinations of the Planck 2015 data and show that the measured lensing potential power spectrum C {sub ℓ}{sup φφ} breaks the degeneracy. Nested sampling of the ΛCDM+Δ{sub rms}{sup 2}(+ A {sub L}) model using the Planck 2015 temperature, polarization, and lensing data gives Δ{sub rms}{sup 2} = (6.9{sup +3.0}{sub −3.1}) × 10{sup −3} at 68% CL. A non-zero value is favoured at 2.3σ (or without the polarization data at 2.8σ). CIP with Δ{sub rms}{sup 2} ≈ 7 × 10{sup −3} improves the bestfit χ{sup 2} by 3.6 compared to the adiabatic ΛCDM model. In contrast, although the temperature data favour A {sub L} ≅ 1.22, allowing A {sub L} ≠ 1 does not improve the joint fit at all, since the lensing data disfavour A {sub L} ≠ 1. Indeed, CIP provides a rare example of a simple model, which is capable of reducing the Planck lensing anomaly significantly and fitting well simultaneously the high (and low) multipole temperature and lensing data, as well as the polarization data. Finally, we derive forecasts for two future satellite missions (LiteBIRD proposal to JAXA/NASA and Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE proposal to ESA's M5 call) and compare these to simulated Planck data. Due to its coarse angular resolution, LiteBIRD is not able to improve the constraints on Δ{sub rms}{sup 2} or A

  8. Constraints on cosmological birefringence from PLANCK and Bicep2/Keck data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruppuso, A. [INAF-IASF Bologna, Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale e Fisica Cosmica di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Gerbino, M.; Pagano, L.; Melchiorri, A. [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFN, Università di Roma ' ' La Sapienza' ' , P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy); Natoli, P.; Mandolesi, N.; Molinari, D., E-mail: gruppuso@iasbo.inaf.it, E-mail: martina.gerbino@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: ntlpla@unife.it, E-mail: luca.pagano@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: mandolesi@iasfbo.inaf.it, E-mail: alessandro.melchiorri@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: molinari@iasfbo.inaf.it [Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra and INFN, Università degli Studi di Ferrara, Via Saragat 1, I-44100 Ferrara (Italy)

    2016-06-01

    The polarization of cosmic microwave background (CMB) can be used to constrain cosmological birefringence, the rotation of the linear polarization of CMB photons potentially induced by parity violating physics beyond the standard model. This effect produces non-null CMB cross correlations between temperature and B mode-polarization, and between E- and B-mode polarization. Both cross-correlations are otherwise null in the standard cosmological model. We use the recently released 2015 PLANCK likelihood in combination with the Bicep2/Keck/Planck (BKP) likelihood to constrain the birefringence angle α. Our findings, that are compatible with no detection, read α = 0.0° ± 1.3° (stat) ± 1° (sys) for PLANCK data and α = 0.30° ± 0.27° (stat) ± 1° (sys) for BKP data. We finally forecast the expected improvements over present constraints when the PLANCK BB, TB and EB spectra at high ℓ will be included in the analysis.

  9. Planck intermediate results: XLVII. Planck constraints on reionization history

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Ashdown, M.

    2016-01-01

    obtain a Thomson optical depth τ = 0.058 ± 0.012 for the commonly adopted instantaneous reionization model. This confirms, with data solely from CMB anisotropies, the low value suggested by combining Planck 2015 results with other data sets, and also reduces the uncertainties. We reconstruct the history......We investigate constraints on cosmic reionization extracted from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. We combine the Planck CMB anisotropy data in temperature with the low-multipole polarization data to fit ΛCDM models with various parameterizations of the reionization history. We...

  10. Off-line radiometric analysis of Planck-LFI data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tomasi, M; Mennella, A; Bersanelli, M [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Galeotta, S; Maris, M [LFI-DPC INAF-OATs, Via Tiepolo 11, 34131 Trieste (Italy); Lowe, S R [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Mendes, L [Planck Science Office, European Space Agency, ESAC, P.O. box 78, 28691 Villanueva de la Canada, Madrid (Spain); Leonardi, R; Meinhold, P [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9530 (United States); Villa, F; Sandri, M; Cuttaia, F; Terenzi, L; Valenziano, L; Butler, R C [INAF-IASF Bologna, Via Gobetti, 101, 40129, Bologna (Italy); Cappellini, B [INAF-IASF Milano, Via E. Bassini 15, 20133 Milano (Italy); Gregorio, A [Department of Physics, University of Trieste, Via Valerio, 2 Trieste I-34127 (Italy); Salmon, M J [Departamento de IngenierIa de Comunicaciones, Universidad de Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n. 39005 Santander (Spain); Binko, P [ISDC Data Centre for Astrophysics, University of Geneva, ch. d' Ecogia 16, 1290 Versoix (Switzerland); D' Arcangelo, O, E-mail: tomasi@lambrate.inaf.i [IFP-CNR, Via Cozzi 53, Milano (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    The Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) is an array of 22 pseudo-correlation radiometers on-board the Planck satellite to measure temperature and polarization anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) in three frequency bands (30, 44 and 70 GHz). To calibrate and verify the performances of the LFI, a software suite named LIFE has been developed. Its aims are to provide a common platform to use for analyzing the results of the tests performed on the single components of the instrument (RCAs, Radiometric Chain Assemblies) and on the integrated Radiometric Array Assembly (RAA). Moreover, its analysis tools are designed to be used during the flight as well to produce periodic reports on the status of the instrument. The LIFE suite has been developed using a multi-layered, cross-platform approach. It implements a number of analysis modules written in RSI IDL, each accessing the data through a portable and heavily optimized library of functions written in C and C++. One of the most important features of LIFE is its ability to run the same data analysis codes both using ground test data and real flight data as input. The LIFE software suite has been successfully used during the RCA/RAA tests and the Planck Integrated System Tests. Moreover, the software has also passed the verification for its in-flight use during the System Operations Verification Tests, held in October 2008.

  11. Off-line radiometric analysis of Planck-LFI data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomasi, M; Mennella, A; Bersanelli, M; Galeotta, S; Maris, M; Lowe, S R; Mendes, L; Leonardi, R; Meinhold, P; Villa, F; Sandri, M; Cuttaia, F; Terenzi, L; Valenziano, L; Butler, R C; Cappellini, B; Gregorio, A; Salmon, M J; Binko, P; D'Arcangelo, O

    2009-01-01

    The Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) is an array of 22 pseudo-correlation radiometers on-board the Planck satellite to measure temperature and polarization anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) in three frequency bands (30, 44 and 70 GHz). To calibrate and verify the performances of the LFI, a software suite named LIFE has been developed. Its aims are to provide a common platform to use for analyzing the results of the tests performed on the single components of the instrument (RCAs, Radiometric Chain Assemblies) and on the integrated Radiometric Array Assembly (RAA). Moreover, its analysis tools are designed to be used during the flight as well to produce periodic reports on the status of the instrument. The LIFE suite has been developed using a multi-layered, cross-platform approach. It implements a number of analysis modules written in RSI IDL, each accessing the data through a portable and heavily optimized library of functions written in C and C++. One of the most important features of LIFE is its ability to run the same data analysis codes both using ground test data and real flight data as input. The LIFE software suite has been successfully used during the RCA/RAA tests and the Planck Integrated System Tests. Moreover, the software has also passed the verification for its in-flight use during the System Operations Verification Tests, held in October 2008.

  12. Planck pre-launch status: The optical system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tauber, J. A.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, Hans Ulrik; Ade, P. A. R.

    2010-01-01

    Planck is a scientific satellite that represents the next milestone in space-based research related to the cosmic microwave background, and in many other astrophysical fields. Planck was launched on 14 May of 2009 and is now operational. The uncertainty in the optical response of its detectors......, based on the knowledge available at the time of launch. We also briefly describe the impact of the major systematic effects of optical origin, and the concept of in-flight optical calibration. Detailed discussions of related areas are provided in accompanying papers....

  13. Optimization of Planck-LFI on-board data handling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maris, M; Galeotta, S; Frailis, M; Zacchei, A; Fogliani, S; Gasparo, F [INAF-OATs, Via G.B. Tiepolo 11, 34131 Trieste (Italy); Tomasi, M; Bersanelli, M [Universita di Milano, Dipartimento di Fisica, Via G. Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Miccolis, M [Thales Alenia Space Italia S.p.A., S.S. Padana Superiore 290, 20090 Vimodrone (Italy); Hildebrandt, S; Chulani, H; Gomez, F [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC), C/o Via Lactea, s/n E38205 - La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Rohlfs, R; Morisset, N; Binko, P [ISDC Data Centre for Astrophysics, University of Geneva, ch. d' Ecogia 16, 1290 Versoix (Switzerland); Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cuttaia, F; Franceschi, E [INAF-IASF Bologna, Via P. Gobetti, 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); D' Arcangelo, O, E-mail: maris@oats.inaf.i [IFP-CNR, via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy)

    2009-12-15

    To asses stability against 1/f noise, the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) on-board the Planck mission will acquire data at a rate much higher than the data rate allowed by the science telemetry bandwith of 35.5 Kbps. The data are processed by an on-board pipeline, followed on-ground by a decoding and reconstruction step, to reduce the volume of data to a level compatible with the bandwidth while minimizing the loss of information. This paper illustrates the on-board processing of the scientific data used by Planck/LFI to fit the allowed data-rate, an intrinsecally lossy process which distorts the signal in a manner which depends on a set of five free parameters (N{sub aver}, r{sub 1}, r{sub 2}, q, O) for each of the 44 LFI detectors. The paper quantifies the level of distortion introduced by the on-board processing as a function of these parameters. It describes the method of tuning the on-board processing chain to cope with the limited bandwidth while keeping to a minimum the signal distortion. Tuning is sensitive to the statistics of the signal and has to be constantly adapted during flight. The tuning procedure is based on a optimization algorithm applied to unprocessed and uncompressed raw data provided either by simulations, pre-launch tests or data taken in flight from LFI operating in a special diagnostic acquisition mode. All the needed optimization steps are performed by an automated tool, OCA2, which simulates the on-board processing, explores the space of possible combinations of parameters, and produces a set of statistical indicators, among them: the compression rate C{sub r} and the processing noise epsilon{sub Q}. For Planck/LFI it is required that C{sub r} = 2.4 while, as for other systematics, epsilon{sub Q} would have to be less than 10% of rms of the instrumental white noise. An analytical model is developed that is able to extract most of the relevant information on the processing errors and the compression rate as a function of the signal

  14. Planck 2013 results. XXV. Searches for cosmic strings and other topological defects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    Planck data have been used to provide stringent new constraints on cosmic strings and other defects. We describe forecasts of the CMB power spectrum induced by cosmic strings, calculating these from network models and simulations using line-of-sight Boltzmann solvers. We have studied Nambu-Goto c...

  15. Planck 2015. XX. Constraints on inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Arroja, F.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Ballardini, M.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Handley, W.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Ma, Y.Z.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munchmeyer, M.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Pandolfi, S.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Shiraishi, M.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J.P.; Zonca, A.

    2016-09-20

    We present the implications for cosmic inflation of the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies in both temperature and polarization based on the full Planck survey. The Planck full mission temperature data and a first release of polarization data on large angular scales measure the spectral index of curvature perturbations to be $n_\\mathrm{s} = 0.968 \\pm 0.006$ and tightly constrain its scale dependence to $d n_s/d \\ln k =-0.003 \\pm 0.007$ when combined with the Planck lensing likelihood. When the high-$\\ell$ polarization data is included, the results are consistent and uncertainties are reduced. The upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio is $r_{0.002} < 0.11$ (95% CL), consistent with the B-mode polarization constraint $r< 0.12$ (95% CL) obtained from a joint BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck analysis. These results imply that $V(\\phi) \\propto \\phi^2$ and natural inflation are now disfavoured compared to models predicting a smaller tensor-to-scalar ratio, such as $R^2$ ...

  16. On the Nernst-Planck equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maex, Reinoud

    2017-01-01

    This review first discusses Nernst's and Planck's early papers on electro-diffusion, the brief priority conflict that followed, and the role these papers played in shaping the emerging concept of membrane excitability. The second part discusses in greater detail the constraints of the Nernst-Planck theory, and shows more recent examples of its applicability for neuronal modelling.

  17. Planck constraints on monodromy inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easther, Richard; Flauger, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    We use data from the nominal Planck mission to constrain modulations in the primordial power spectrum associated with monodromy inflation. The largest improvement in fit relative to the unmodulated model has Δχ 2 ≈ 10 and we find no evidence for a primordial signal, in contrast to a previous analysis of the WMAP9 dataset, for which Δχ 2 ≈ 20. The Planck and WMAP9 results are broadly consistent on angular scales where they are expected to agree as far as best-fit values are concerned. However, even on these scales the significance of the signal is reduced in Planck relative to WMAP, and is consistent with a fit to the ''noise'' associated with cosmic variance. Our results motivate both a detailed comparison between the two experiments and a more careful study of the theoretical predictions of monodromy inflation

  18. Planck 2013 results. IV. Low Frequency Instrument beams and window functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the characterization of the in-flight beams, the beam window functions and the associated errors for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). Knowledge of the beam profiles is the key to determining their imprint on the transfer function from the observed to the actual sky a...

  19. Planck 2013 results. IV. Low Frequency Instrument beams and window functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the characterization of the in-flight beams, the beam window functions and the associated errors for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). Knowledge of the beam profiles is the key to determining their imprint on the transfer function from the observed to the actual sky a...

  20. Planck 2013 results. IV. Low Frequency Instrument beams and window functions

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, L -Y; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Crill, B P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Gaier, T C; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Kangaslahti, P; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kiiveri, K; Kisner, T S; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Lindholm, V; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Platania, P; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Roudier, G; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the characterization of the in-flight beams, the beam window functions and the associated uncertainties for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). Knowledge of the beam profiles is necessary for determining the transfer function to go from the observed to the actual sky anisotropy power spectrum. The main beam distortions affect the beam window function, complicating the reconstruction of the anisotropy power spectrum at high multipoles, whereas the sidelobes affect the low and intermediate multipoles. The in-flight assessment of the LFI main beams relies on the measurements performed during Jupiter observations. By stacking the data from multiple Jupiter transits, the main beam profiles are measured down to -20 dB at 30 and 44 GHz, and down to -25 dB at 70 GHz. The main beam solid angles are determined to better than 0.2% at each LFI frequency band. The Planck pre-launch optical model is conveniently tuned to characterize the main beams independently of any noise effects. This approac...

  1. Einstein and Planck

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilbron, John

    2005-03-01

    As an editor of the Annalen der Physik, Max Planck published Einstein's early papers on thermodynamics and on special relativity, which Planck probably was the first major physicist to appreciate. They respected one another not only as physicists but also, for their inspired creation of world pictures, as artists. Planck helped to establish Einstein in a sinecure at the center of German physics, Berlin. Despite their differences in scientific style, social life, politics, and religion, they became fast friends. Their mutual admiration survived World War I, during which Einstein advocated pacifism and Planck signed the infamous Manifesto of the 93 Intellectuals supporting the German invasion of Belgium. It also survived the Weimar Republic, which Einstein favored and Planck disliked. Physics drew them together, as both opposed the Copenhagen Interpretation; so did common decency, as Planck helped to protect Einstein from anti-semitic attacks. Their friendship did not survive the Nazis. As a standing secretary of the Berlin Academy, Planck had to advise Einstein to resign from it before his colleagues, outraged at his criticism of the new Germany from the safety of California, expelled him. Einstein never forgave his old friend and former fellow artist for not protesting publicly against his expulsion and denigration, and other enormities of National Socialism. .

  2. Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Pandolfi, S.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; White, M.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to $n_s = 0.9603 \\pm 0.0073$, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5 $\\sigma$. Planck establishes an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r 2 do not provide a good fit to the data. Planck does not find statistically significant running of the scalar spectral index, obtaining $d n_s/d ln k = -0.0134 \\pm 0.0090$. Several analyses dropping the slow-roll approximation are carried out, including detailed model comparison and inflationary potential reconstruction. We also investigate whether the primordial power spectrum contains any features. We find that models with a parameterized oscillatory feature improve the fit $\\chi^2$ by ~ 10; however, Bayesian evidence does not prefer these models. We constrain several single-field inflation models with generalized Lagrangians by combining pow...

  3. Planck 2013 results. IX. HFI spectral response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    -of-band signal rejection) of all HFI detectors to a known source of electromagnetic radiation individually. This was determined by measuring the output of all detection channels for radiation propagated through a continuously scanned polarizing Fourier transform spectrometer. As there is no on-board spectrometer......, dust emission, Sunyaev Zeldovich sources, and intensity to polarization leakage. The HFI spectral response data have also been used to provide unit conversion and colour correction analysis tools. While previous papers have already described the pre-flight experiments conducted on the Planck HFI...

  4. Study of the capability for rapid warnings of solar flare radiation hazards to aircraft. Part I. Forecasts and warnings of solar flare radiation hazards. Part II. An FAA polar flight solar cosmic radiation forecast/warning communication system study. Technical memo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauer, H.H.; Stonehocker, G.H.

    1977-04-01

    The first part of the report provides background information on the occurrence of solar activity and the consequent sporadic production of electromagnetic and particle emissions from the sun. A summary is given of the current procedures for the forecasting of solar activity together with procedures used to verify these forecasts as currently available. A summary of current forecasting of radiation hazards as provided in support of the Concorde SST program is also given. The second part of the report describes a forecast message distribution system developed in conjunction with solar cosmic radiation forecasts and warnings of the Space Environment Laboratory of NOAA for the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Office of Aviation Medicine. The study analyzes the currently available and future aeronautical telecommunication system facilities to determine an optimum system to distribute forecasts to the preflight planning centers in the international flight service stations for polar-flying subsonic and supersonic transport (SST) type aircraft. Also recommended for the system are timely and reliable distribution of warnings to individual in-flight aircraft in polar areas by the responsible air traffic control authority

  5. Stable indications of relic gravitational waves in Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe data and forecasts for the Planck mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, W.; Baskaran, D.; Grishchuk, L. P.

    2009-01-01

    The relic gravitational waves are the cleanest probe of the violent times in the very early history of the Universe. They are expected to leave signatures in the observed cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We significantly improved our previous analysis [W. Zhao, D. Baskaran, and L. P. Grishchuk, Phys. Rev. D 79, 023002 (2009)] of the 5-year WMAP TT and TE data at lower multipoles l. This more general analysis returned essentially the same maximum likelihood result (unfortunately, surrounded by large remaining uncertainties): The relic gravitational waves are present and they are responsible for approximately 20% of the temperature quadrupole. We identify and discuss the reasons by which the contribution of gravitational waves can be overlooked in a data analysis. One of the reasons is a misleading reliance on data from very high multipoles l and another a too narrow understanding of the problem as the search for B modes of polarization, rather than the detection of relic gravitational waves with the help of all correlation functions. Our analysis of WMAP5 data has led to the identification of a whole family of models characterized by relatively high values of the likelihood function. Using the Fisher matrix formalism we formulated forecasts for Planck mission in the context of this family of models. We explore in detail various 'optimistic', 'pessimistic', and 'dream case' scenarios. We show that in some circumstances the B-mode detection may be very inconclusive, at the level of signal-to-noise ratio S/N=1.75, whereas a smarter data analysis can reveal the same gravitational wave signal at S/N=6.48. The final result is encouraging. Even under unfavorable conditions in terms of instrumental noises and foregrounds, the relic gravitational waves, if they are characterized by the maximum likelihood parameters that we found from WMAP5 data, will be detected by Planck at the level S/N=3.65.

  6. Planck 2015 results. IV. Low Frequency Instrument beams and window functions

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Christensen, P.R.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Lindholm, V.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renzi, A.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri}, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vassallo, T.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the characterization of the in-flight beams, the beam window functions, and the associated uncertainties for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). The structure of the paper is similar to that presented in the 2013 Planck release; the main differences concern the beam normalization and the delivery of the window functions to be used for polarization analysis. The in-flight assessment of the LFI main beams relies on measurements performed during observations of Jupiter. By stacking data from seven Jupiter transits, the main beam profiles are measured down to -25 dB at 30 and 44 GHz, and down to -30 dB at 70 GHz. The agreement between the simulated beams and the measured beams is confirmed to be better than 1% at each LFI frequency band (within the 20 dB contour from the peak, the rms values are: 0.1% at 30 and 70 GHz; 0.2% at 44 GHz). Simulated polarized beams are used for the computation of the effective beam window functions. The error budget for the window functions is estimated fro...

  7. Cosmological constraints on neutrinos with Planck data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spinelli, M.

    2015-01-01

    Neutrinos take part in the dance of the evolving Universe influencing its history from leptogenesis, to Big Bang nucleosynthesis, until late time structure formation. This makes cosmology, and in particular one of its primary observables the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), an unusual but valuable tool for testing Neutrino Physics. The best measurement to date of full-sky CMB anisotropies comes from the Planck satellite launched in 2009 by the European Space Agency (ESA) and successful follower of COBE and WMAP. Testing Planck data against precise theoretical predictions allow us to shed light on various interesting open questions such as the value of the absolute scale of neutrino masses or their energy density. We revise here the results concerning neutrinos obtained by the Planck Collaboration in the 2013 data release

  8. Cosmological constraints on neutrinos with Planck data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spinelli, M. [Laboratoire de l’Accélérateur Linéaire, Bat.200, 91400 Orsay (France)

    2015-07-15

    Neutrinos take part in the dance of the evolving Universe influencing its history from leptogenesis, to Big Bang nucleosynthesis, until late time structure formation. This makes cosmology, and in particular one of its primary observables the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), an unusual but valuable tool for testing Neutrino Physics. The best measurement to date of full-sky CMB anisotropies comes from the Planck satellite launched in 2009 by the European Space Agency (ESA) and successful follower of COBE and WMAP. Testing Planck data against precise theoretical predictions allow us to shed light on various interesting open questions such as the value of the absolute scale of neutrino masses or their energy density. We revise here the results concerning neutrinos obtained by the Planck Collaboration in the 2013 data release.

  9. Cosmological constraints on neutrinos with Planck data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, M.

    2015-07-01

    Neutrinos take part in the dance of the evolving Universe influencing its history from leptogenesis, to Big Bang nucleosynthesis, until late time structure formation. This makes cosmology, and in particular one of its primary observables the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), an unusual but valuable tool for testing Neutrino Physics. The best measurement to date of full-sky CMB anisotropies comes from the Planck satellite launched in 2009 by the European Space Agency (ESA) and successful follower of COBE and WMAP. Testing Planck data against precise theoretical predictions allow us to shed light on various interesting open questions such as the value of the absolute scale of neutrino masses or their energy density. We revise here the results concerning neutrinos obtained by the Planck Collaboration in the 2013 data release.

  10. Planck 2013 results. XXIX. Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the all-sky Planck catalogue of clusters and cluster candidates derived from Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect detections using the first 15.5 months of Planck satellite observations. The catalogue contains 1227 entries, making it over six times the size of the Planck Early SZ (ESZ) sampl...

  11. Planck 2015 results: XX. Constraints on inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    data are consistent with adiabatic primordial perturbations, and the estimated values for the parameters of the base Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model are not significantly altered when more general initial conditions are admitted. In correlated mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the 95% CL upper...... are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and further constrain slow-roll single-field inflationary models, as expected from the increased precision of Planck data using the full set of observations....

  12. Planck 2013 results. XXXI. Consistency of the Planck data

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Ashdown, M; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A.J; Barreiro, R.B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoit-Levy, A; Bernard, J.P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bond, J.R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F.R; Burigana, C; Cardoso, J.F; Catalano, A; Challinor, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, H.C; Christensen, P.R; Clements, D.L; Colombi, S; Colombo, L.P.L; Couchot, F; Coulais, A; Crill, B.P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R.D; Davis, R.J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Desert, F.X; Dickinson, C; Diego, J.M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Dore, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Ensslin, T.A; Eriksen, H.K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Fraisse, A A; Franceschi, E; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Gudmundsson, J E; Hansen, F.K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versille, S; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S.R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M; Jaffe, T.R; Jaffe, A.H; Jones, W.C; Keihanen, E; Keskitalo, R; Knoche, J; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lahteenmaki, A; Lamarre, J.M; Lasenby, A; Lawrence, C.R; Leonardi, R; Leon-Tavares, J; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P.B; Linden-Vornle, M; Lopez-Caniego, M; Lubin, P.M; Macias-Perez, J.F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Martin, P.G; Martinez-Gonzalez, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P.R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Miville-Deschenes, M.A; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Murphy, J A; Naselsky, P; Nati, F; Natoli, P; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U; Noviello, F; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; Oxborrow, C.A; Pagano, L; Pajot, F; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, D; Pearson, T.J; Perdereau, O; Perrotta, F; Piacentini, F; Piat, M; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Pratt, G.W; Prunet, S; Puget, J.L; Rachen, J.P; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Renault, C; Ricciardi, S.; Ristorcelli, I; Rocha, G.; Roudier, G; Rubino-Martin, J.A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Scott, D; Stolyarov, V; Sudiwala, R; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A.S; Sygnet, J.F; Tauber, J.A; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Wade, L.A; Wandelt, B.D; Wehus, I K; White, S D M; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    The Planck design and scanning strategy provide many levels of redundancy that can be exploited to provide tests of internal consistency. One of the most important is the comparison of the 70 GHz (amplifier) and 100 GHz (bolometer) channels. Based on different instrument technologies, with feeds located differently in the focal plane, analysed independently by different teams using different software, and near the minimum of diffuse foreground emission, these channels are in effect two different experiments. The 143 GHz channel has the lowest noise level on Planck, and is near the minimum of unresolved foreground emission. In this paper, we analyse the level of consistency achieved in the 2013 Planck data. We concentrate on comparisons between the 70, 100, and 143 GHz channel maps and power spectra, particularly over the angular scales of the first and second acoustic peaks, on maps masked for diffuse Galactic emission and for strong unresolved sources. Difference maps covering angular scales from 8°...

  13. The Planck-LFI Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreros, J. M.; Gómez, M. F.; Rebolo, R.; Chulani, H.; Rubiño-Martin, J. A.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Bersanelli, M.; Butler, R. C.; Miccolis, M.; Peña, A.; Pereira, M.; Torrero, F.; Franceschet, C.; López, M.; Alcalá, C.

    2009-12-01

    The Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly (REBA) is the control and data processing on board computer of the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) of the Planck mission (ESA). The REBA was designed and built incorporating state of the art processors, communication interfaces and real time operating system software in order to meet the scientific performance of the LFI. We present a technical summary of the REBA, including a physical, functional, electrical, mechanical and thermal description. Aspects of the design and development, the assembly, the integration and the verification of the equipment are provided. A brief description of the LFI on board software is given including the Low-Level Software and the main functionalities and architecture of the Application Software. The compressor module, which has been developed as an independent product, later integrated in the application, is also described in this paper. Two identical engineering models EM and AVM, the engineering qualification model EQM, the flight model FM and flight spare have been manufactured and tested. Low-level and Application software have been developed. Verification activities demonstrated that the REBA hardware and software fulfil all the specifications and perform as required for flight operation.

  14. The Planck-LFI Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herreros, J M; Gomez, M F; Rebolo, R; Chulani, H; Rubino-Martin, J A; Hildebrandt, S R; Bersanelli, M; Franceschet, C; Butler, R C; Miccolis, M; Pena, A; Pereira, M; Torrero, F; Lopez, M; Alcala, C

    2009-01-01

    The Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly (REBA) is the control and data processing on board computer of the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) of the Planck mission (ESA). The REBA was designed and built incorporating state of the art processors, communication interfaces and real time operating system software in order to meet the scientific performance of the LFI. We present a technical summary of the REBA, including a physical, functional, electrical, mechanical and thermal description. Aspects of the design and development, the assembly, the integration and the verification of the equipment are provided. A brief description of the LFI on board software is given including the Low-Level Software and the main functionalities and architecture of the Application Software. The compressor module, which has been developed as an independent product, later integrated in the application, is also described in this paper. Two identical engineering models EM and AVM, the engineering qualification model EQM, the flight model FM and flight spare have been manufactured and tested. Low-level and Application software have been developed. Verification activities demonstrated that the REBA hardware and software fulfil all the specifications and perform as required for flight operation.

  15. The Planck-LFI Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herreros, J M; Gomez, M F; Rebolo, R; Chulani, H; Rubino-Martin, J A; Hildebrandt, S R [Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias (IAC), 38200 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Bersanelli, M; Franceschet, C [Universita di Milano, Dipartamento di Fisica, Via G. Celoria 16, 20133 Milano (Italy); Butler, R C [INAF-IASF Bologna, Via P. Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna (Italy); Miccolis, M [Thales Alenia Space Italia S.p.A., IUEL - Scientific Instruments, S.S. Padana Superiore 290, 20090 Vimodrone (Italy); Pena, A; Pereira, M; Torrero, F; Lopez, M; Alcala, C, E-mail: rrl@iac.e [EADS Astrium CRISA, C/Torres Quevedo, 9, 28760 Tres Cantos (Spain)

    2009-12-15

    The Radiometer Electronics Box Assembly (REBA) is the control and data processing on board computer of the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) of the Planck mission (ESA). The REBA was designed and built incorporating state of the art processors, communication interfaces and real time operating system software in order to meet the scientific performance of the LFI. We present a technical summary of the REBA, including a physical, functional, electrical, mechanical and thermal description. Aspects of the design and development, the assembly, the integration and the verification of the equipment are provided. A brief description of the LFI on board software is given including the Low-Level Software and the main functionalities and architecture of the Application Software. The compressor module, which has been developed as an independent product, later integrated in the application, is also described in this paper. Two identical engineering models EM and AVM, the engineering qualification model EQM, the flight model FM and flight spare have been manufactured and tested. Low-level and Application software have been developed. Verification activities demonstrated that the REBA hardware and software fulfil all the specifications and perform as required for flight operation.

  16. Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2014-01-01

    We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to be ns = 0.9603 ± 0:0073, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5 sigma P...

  17. A Planck Vacuum Cosmology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daywitt W. C.

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Both the big-bang and the quasi-steady-state cosmologies originate in some type of Planck state. This paper presents a new cosmological theory based on the Planck- vacuum negative-energy state, a state consisting of a degenerate collection of negative- energy Planck particles. A heuristic look at the Einstein field equation provides a con- vincing argument that such a vacuum state could provide a theoretical explanation for the visible universe.

  18. Planck intermediate results XXV. The Andromeda galaxy as seen by Planck

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2015-01-01

    The Andromeda galaxy (M 31) is one of a few galaxies that has sufficient angular size on the sky to be resolved by the Planck satellite. Planck has detected M 31 in all of its frequency bands, and has mapped out the dust emission with the High Frequency Instrument, clearly resolving multiple spir...

  19. The Planck Telescope reflectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stute, Thomas

    2004-09-01

    The mechanical division of EADS-Astrium GmbH, Friedrichshafen is currently engaged with the development, manufacturing and testing of the advanced dimensionally stable composite reflectors for the ESA satellite borne telescope Planck. The objective of the ESA mission Planck is to analyse the first light that filled the universe, the cosmic microwave background radiation. Under contract of the Danish Space Research Institute and ESA EADS-Astrium GmbH is developing the all CFRP primary and secondary reflectors for the 1.5-metre telescope which is the main instrument of the Planck satellite. The operational frequency ranges from to 25 GHz to 1000 GHz. The demanding high contour accuracy and surface roughness requirements are met. The design provides the extreme dimensional stability required by the cryogenic operational environment at around 40 K. The elliptical off-axis reflectors display a classical lightweight sandwich design with CFRP core and facesheets. Isostatic mounts provide the interfaces to the telescope structure. Protected VDA provides the reflecting surface. The manufacturing is performed at the Friedrichshafen premises of EADS-Space Transportation GmbH, the former Dornier composite workshops. Advanced manufacturing technologies like true angle lay-up by CNC fibre placement and filament winding are utilized. The protected coating is applied at the CAHA facilities at the Calar Alto Observatory, Spain. The exhaustive environmental testing is performed at the facilities of IABG, Munich (mechanical testing) and for the cryo-optical tests at CSL Liege. The project is in advanced state with both Qualification Models being under environmental testing. The flight models will be delivered in 2004. The paper gives an overview over the requirements and the main structural features how these requirements are met. Special production aspects and available test results are reported.

  20. Does the planck mass run on the cosmological-horizon scale?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbers, Georg; Afshordi, Niayesh; Doran, Michael

    2008-03-21

    Einstein's theory of general relativity contains a universal value of the Planck mass. However, one may envisage that in alternative theories of gravity the effective value of the Planck mass (or Newton's constant), which quantifies the coupling of matter to metric perturbations, can run on the cosmological-horizon scale. In this Letter, we study the consequences of a glitch in the Planck mass from subhorizon to superhorizon scales. We show that current cosmological observations severely constrain this glitch to less than 1.2%.

  1. Planck 2015 results. XXVIII. The Planck Catalogue of Galactic Cold Clumps

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Pelkonen, V.-M.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    We present the Planck Catalogue of Galactic Cold Clumps (PGCC), an all-sky catalogue of Galactic cold clump candidates detected by Planck. This catalogue is the full version of the Early Cold Core (ECC) catalogue, which was made available in 2011 with the Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC) and contained 915 high S/N sources. It is based on the Planck 48 months mission data that are currently being released to the astronomical community. The PGCC catalogue is an observational catalogue consisting exclusively of Galactic cold sources. The three highest Planck bands (857, 545, 353 GHz) have been combined with IRAS data at 3 THz to perform a multi-frequency detection of sources colder than their local environment. After rejection of possible extragalactic contaminants, the PGCC catalogue contains 13188 Galactic sources spread across the whole sky, i.e., from the Galactic plane to high latitudes, following the spatial distribution of the main molecular cloud complexes. The median temperature of PGCC so...

  2. Primordial helium abundance from CMB: A constraint from recent observations and a forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Kazuhide; Sekiguchi, Toyokazu; Takahashi, Tomo

    2008-01-01

    We studied a constraint on the primordial helium abundance Y p from current and future observations of CMB. Using the currently available data from WMAP, ACBAR, CBI, and BOOMERANG, we obtained the constraint as Y p =0.25 -0.07 +0.10 at 68% confidence level. We also provide a forecast for the Planck experiment using the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. In addition to forecasting the constraint on Y p , we investigate how assumptions for Y p affect constraints on the other cosmological parameters.

  3. Planck 2013 Cosmology Results: a Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alberto Rubino-Martín

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This talk presents an overview of the cosmological results derived from the first 15.5 months of observations of the ESA’s Planck mission. These cosmological results are mainly based on the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB temperature and lensing-potential power spectra, although we also briefly discuss other aspects of the Planck data, as the statistical characterization of the reconstructed CMB maps, or the constraints on cosmological parameters using the number counts of galaxy clusters detected by means of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect in the Planck maps. All these results are described in detail in a series of papers released by ESA and the Planck collaboration in March 2013.

  4. Max Planck in the Social Context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broda, E.

    1983-01-01

    Planck was the founder of quantum theory, and therefore of modern physics. Moreover, because of the strength of his character and of his towering position in scientific life he had strong public influence. In respect to atomistics Planck went over from the negative position of Mach to the positive position of Boltzmann when he established his radiation law and introduced the quantum of action. Einstein was a supporter of atomistics all his life. From the beginning, Planck furthered the Theory of Relativity and Einstein. In the Weimar Republic he supported Einstein against the socalled 'German Physics'. Planck had the courage to praise Einstein in public even after Hitler came to power. Always interested in philosophy, Planck was initially under the influence of Mach's positivism, but later he turned, like Einstein, to realism. Boltzmann had always been arealist and materialist. Planck produced important ideas also on the problem of Free Will. In politics, Planck was a conventional, conservative, PrussianGerman patriot before the First War. However, under Hitler he became reserved towards the State. As well as he could, but with little success, Planck tried to prevent the worst. Planck was always religious, and he ascribed a strong role to religion also in public life. But he did not accept a personal, and therefore not a Christian, God. An attempt is made to interpret Planck's contradictory position in this respect. Planck's life was full of professional success, but it was tragically darkened by personal blows of fate. A relationship with the path of Germany and of her conservative intellectual leadership is sought. (author) [de

  5. Value of Forecaster in the Loop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    forecast system IFR instrument flight rules IMC instrument meteorological conditions LAMP Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program METOC...obtaining valuable experience. Additional factors have impacted the Navy weather forecast process. There has been a the realignment of the meteorology...forecasts that are assessed, it may be a relatively small number that have direct impact on the decision-making process. Whether the value is minimal or

  6. Planck 2013 results. XXXII. The updated Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Aussel, H.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Barrena, R.; Bartelmann, M.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bikmaev, I.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J. J.; Böhringer, H.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burenin, R.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Carvalho, P.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.-R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, H. C.; Chiang, L.-Y.; Chon, G.; Christensen, P. R.; Churazov, E.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Comis, B.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Da Silva, A.; Dahle, H.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.-M.; Démoclès, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Feroz, F.; Ferragamo, A.; Finelli, F.; Flores-Cacho, I.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Fromenteau, S.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Génova-Santos, R. T.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Gilfanov, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Grainge, K. J. B.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Groeneboom, N., E.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Hempel, A.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Khamitov, I.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R. J.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leahy, J. P.; Leonardi, R.; León-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Li, C.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; MacTavish, C. J.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D. J.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Mei, S.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.-B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nastasi, A.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Nesvadba, N. P. H.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I. J.; Olamaie, M.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrott, Y. C.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Reach, W. T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rumsey, C.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Saunders, R. D. E.; Savini, G.; Schammel, M. P.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Shimwell, T. W.; Spencer, L. D.; Starck, J.-L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Streblyanska, A.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tramonte, D.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Türler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vibert, L.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; White, M.; White, S. D. M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2015-09-01

    We update the all-sky Planck catalogue of 1227 clusters and cluster candidates (PSZ1) published in March 2013, derived from detections of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect using the first 15.5 months of Planck satellite observations. As an addendum, we deliver an updated version of the PSZ1 catalogue, reporting the further confirmation of 86 Planck-discovered clusters. In total, the PSZ1 now contains 947 confirmed clusters, of which 214 were confirmed as newly discovered clusters through follow-up observations undertaken by the Planck Collaboration. The updated PSZ1 contains redshifts for 913 systems, of which 736 (~ 80.6%) are spectroscopic, and associated mass estimates derived from the Yz mass proxy. We also provide a new SZ quality flag for the remaining 280 candidates. This flag was derived from a novel artificial neural-network classification of the SZ signal. Based on this assessment, the purity of the updated PSZ1 catalogue is estimated to be 94%. In this release, we provide the full updated catalogue and an additional readme file with further information on the Planck SZ detections. The catalogue is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/581/A14

  7. Localizability and the planck mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ne'eman, Y.; Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX

    1993-06-01

    The author combines the assumption of environmental decoherence, as the mechanism generating the classical (i.e. no quantum interferences) nature of spacetime, with the limit on its other classical feature, point-like continuity, namely Planck length. As a result, quantum extended objects with masses larger than Planck mass have to derive their quantum behavior from long-range correlations; objects with masses smaller than Planck mass cannot display classical behavior

  8. Planck-suppressed operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Green, Daniel; McAllister, Liam

    2014-01-01

    We show that the recent Planck limits on primordial non-Gaussianity impose strong constraints on light hidden sector fields coupled to the inflaton via operators suppressed by a high mass scale Λ. We study a simple effective field theory in which a hidden sector field is coupled to a shift-symmetric inflaton via arbitrary operators up to dimension five. Self-interactions in the hidden sector lead to non-Gaussianity in the curvature perturbations. To be consistent with the Planck limit on local non-Gaussianity, the coupling to any hidden sector with light fields and natural cubic couplings must be suppressed by a very high scale Λ > 10 5 H. Even if the hidden sector has Gaussian correlations, nonlinearities in the mixing with the inflaton still lead to non-Gaussian curvature perturbations. In this case, the non-Gaussianity is of the equilateral or orthogonal type, and the Planck data requires Λ > 10 2 H

  9. Diffusion Forecasting Model with Basis Functions from QR-Decomposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlim, John; Yang, Haizhao

    2017-12-01

    The diffusion forecasting is a nonparametric approach that provably solves the Fokker-Planck PDE corresponding to Itô diffusion without knowing the underlying equation. The key idea of this method is to approximate the solution of the Fokker-Planck equation with a discrete representation of the shift (Koopman) operator on a set of basis functions generated via the diffusion maps algorithm. While the choice of these basis functions is provably optimal under appropriate conditions, computing these basis functions is quite expensive since it requires the eigendecomposition of an N× N diffusion matrix, where N denotes the data size and could be very large. For large-scale forecasting problems, only a few leading eigenvectors are computationally achievable. To overcome this computational bottleneck, a new set of basis functions constructed by orthonormalizing selected columns of the diffusion matrix and its leading eigenvectors is proposed. This computation can be carried out efficiently via the unpivoted Householder QR factorization. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm will be shown in both deterministically chaotic and stochastic dynamical systems; in the former case, the superiority of the proposed basis functions over purely eigenvectors is significant, while in the latter case forecasting accuracy is improved relative to using a purely small number of eigenvectors. Supporting arguments will be provided on three- and six-dimensional chaotic ODEs, a three-dimensional SDE that mimics turbulent systems, and also on the two spatial modes associated with the boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation obtained from applying the Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis on the measured Outgoing Longwave Radiation.

  10. Planck 2013 results. XXVIII. The Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    The Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS) is the catalogue of sources detected in the Planck nominal mission data. It consists of nine single-frequency catalogues of compact sources containing reliable sources, both Galactic and extragalactic, detected over the entire sky. The PCCS covers th...

  11. Planck intermediate results XXXIX. The Planck list of high-redshift source candidates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    on a component-separation procedure using a combination of Planck and IRAS data, has been validated and characterized on numerous simulations, and applied to select the most luminous cold submillimetre sources with spectral energy distributions peaking between 353 and 857 GHz at 5' resolution. A total of 2151......The Planck mission, thanks to its large frequency range and all-sky coverage, has a unique potential for systematically detecting the brightest, and rarest, submillimetre sources on the sky, including distant objects in the high-redshift Universe traced by their dust emission. A novel method, based...... Planck high-z source candidates (the PHZ) have been detected in the cleanest 26% of the sky, with flux density at 545 GHz above 500 mJy. Embedded in the cosmic infrared background close to the confusion limit, these high-z candidates exhibit colder colours than their surroundings, consistent...

  12. Planck 2013 results. XXIX. Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Aussel, H.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Barrena, R.; Bartelmann, M.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bikmaev, I.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bohringer, H.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burenin, R.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Carvalho, P.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Chon, G.; Christensen, P.R.; Churazov, E.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Comis, B.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Da Silva, A.; Dahle, H.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Democles, J.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Feroz, F.; Finelli, F.; Flores-Cacho, I.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Fromenteau, S.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Genova-Santos, R.T.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Gilfanov, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Grainge, K.J.B.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; N, E.Groeneboom; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Hempel, A.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Khamitov, I.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Li, C.; Liddle, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; MacTavish, C.J.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Mei, S.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Nesvadba, N.P.H.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Olamaie, M.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrott, Y.C.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rumsey, C.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Saunders, R.D.E.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Shimwell, T.W.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vibert, L.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the all-sky Planck catalogue of clusters and cluster candidates derived from Sunyaev--Zeldovich (SZ) effect detections using the first 15.5 months of Planck satellite observations. The catalogue contains 1227 entries, making it over six times the size of the Planck Early SZ (ESZ) sample and the largest SZ-selected catalogue to date. It contains 861 confirmed clusters, of which 178 have been confirmed as clusters, mostly through follow-up observations, and a further 683 are previously-known clusters. The remaining 366 have the status of cluster candidates, and we divide them into three classes according to the quality of evidence that they are likely to be true clusters. The Planck SZ catalogue is the deepest all-sky cluster catalogue, with redshifts up to about one, and spans the broadest cluster mass range from (0.1 to 1.6) 10^{15}Msun. Confirmation of cluster candidates through comparison with existing surveys or cluster catalogues is extensively described, as is the statistical characterization...

  13. Max Planck in the Social Context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broda, E.

    1983-07-01

    Planck was the founder of quantum theory, and therefore of modern physics. Moreover, because of the strength of his character and of his towering position in scientific life he had strong public influence. In respect to atomistics Planck went over from the negative position of Mach to the positive position of Boltzmann when he established his radiation law and introduced the quantum of action. Einstein was a supporter of atomistics all his life. From the beginning, Planck furthered the Theory of Relativity and Einstein. In the Weimar Republic he supported Einstein against the socalled 'German Physics'. Planck had the courage to praise Einstein in public even after Hitler came to power. Always interested in philosophy, Planck was initially under the influence of Mach's positivism, but later he turned, like Einstein, to realism. Boltzmann had always been arealist and materialist. Planck produced important ideas also on the problem of Free Will. In politics, Planck was a conventional, conservative, PrussianGerman patriot before the First War. However, under Hitler he became reserved towards the State. As well as he could, but with little success, Planck tried to prevent the worst. Planck was always religious, and he ascribed a strong role to religion also in public life. But he did not accept a personal, and therefore not a Christian, God. An attempt is made to interpret Planck's contradictory position in this respect. Planck's life was full of professional success, but it was tragically darkened by personal blows of fate. A relationship with the path of Germany and of her conservative intellectual leadership is sought. (author) [German] Planck war der Begründer der Quantentheorie und daher der modernen Physik. Außerdem hatte er sowohl durch die Kraft seines Charakters als auch durch seine überragenden Funktionen im wissenschaftlichen Leben starken öffentlichen Einfluß. In Bezug auf die Stellung zur Atomistik ging Planck, als er sein Strahlungsgesetz begr

  14. Planck 2015 results. XIII. Cosmological parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Battye, R.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chiang, H.C.; Chluba, J.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Di Valentino, E.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Farhang, M.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Gerbino, M.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Giusarma, E.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marchini, A.; Martin, P.G.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; d'Orfeuil, B.Rouille; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Said, N.; Salvatelli, V.; Salvati, L.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Serra, P.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Spinelli, M.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    We present results based on full-mission Planck observations of temperature and polarization anisotropies of the CMB. These data are consistent with the six-parameter inflationary LCDM cosmology. From the Planck temperature and lensing data, for this cosmology we find a Hubble constant, H0= (67.8 +/- 0.9) km/s/Mpc, a matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.308 +/- 0.012 and a scalar spectral index with n_s = 0.968 +/- 0.006. (We quote 68% errors on measured parameters and 95% limits on other parameters.) Combined with Planck temperature and lensing data, Planck LFI polarization measurements lead to a reionization optical depth of tau = 0.066 +/- 0.016. Combining Planck with other astrophysical data we find N_ eff = 3.15 +/- 0.23 for the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom and the sum of neutrino masses is constrained to < 0.23 eV. Spatial curvature is found to be |Omega_K| < 0.005. For LCDM we find a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r <0.11 consistent with the B-mode constraints fr...

  15. Planck early results. III. First assessment of the Low Frequency Instrument in-flight performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Lähteenmäki, A.; León-Tavares, J.

    2011-01-01

    The scientific performance of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) after one year of in-orbit operation is presented. We describe the main optical parameters and discuss photometric calibration, white noise sensitivity, and noise properties. A preliminary evaluation of the impact of the main...

  16. Planck early results. XVI. The Planck view of nearby galaxies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lähteenmäki, A.; Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.

    2011-01-01

    they have been observed. We here present the first results on the properties of nearby galaxies using these data. We match the ERCSC catalogue to IRAS-detected galaxies in the Imperial IRAS Faint Source Redshift Catalogue (IIFSCz), so that we can measure the spectral energy distributions (SEDs......) of these objects from 60 to 850μm. This produces a list of 1717 galaxies with reliable associations between Planck and IRAS, from which we select a subset of 468 for SED studies, namely those with strong detections in the three highest frequency Planck bands and no evidence of cirrus contamination. The SEDs...

  17. Planck 2015 results: XIX. Constraints on primordial magnetic fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    of the CMB angular power spectra, using the Planck likelihood, are B1 Mpc 4.4 nG (where B1 Mpc is the comoving field amplitude at a scale of 1 Mpc) at 95% confidence level, assuming zero helicity. By considering the Planck likelihood, based only on parity-even angular power spectra, we obtain B1 Mpc ... to three applied methods, all below 5 nG. The constraint from the magnetically-induced passive-tensor bispectrum is B1 Mpc Mpc 4.5 nG, whereas the compensated-scalar bispectrum gives B1 Mpc

  18. Planck 2015 results. XXVI. The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Argueso, F.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Beichman, C.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bohringer, H.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Carvalho, P.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clemens, M.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Negrello, M.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanghera, H.S.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tornikoski, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Walter, B.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources is a catalogue of sources detected in single-frequency maps from the full duration of the Planck mission and supersedes previous versions of the Planck compact source catalogues. It consists of compact sources, both Galactic and extragalactic, detected over the entire sky. Compact sources detected in the lower frequency channels are assigned to the PCCS2, while at higher frequencies they are assigned to one of two sub-catalogues, the PCCS2 or PCCS2E, depending on their location on the sky. The first of these catalogues covers most of the sky and allows the user to produce subsamples at higher reliabilities than the target 80% integral reliability of the catalogue. The PCCS2E contains sources detected in sky regions where the diffuse emission makes it difficult to quantify the reliability of the detections. Both the PCCS2 and PCCS2E include polarization measurements, in the form of polarized flux densities, or upper limits, and orientation angles for all seven pol...

  19. Planck 2013 results. XXVIII. The Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Carvalho, P.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clemens, M.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Leroy, C.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Negrello, M.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Schammel, M.P.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Walter, B.; Wandelt, B.D.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS) is the catalogue of sources detected in the first 15 months of Planck operations, the "nominal" mission. It consists of nine single-frequency catalogues of compact sources, both Galactic and extragalactic, detected over the entire sky. The PCCS covers the frequency range 30--857\\,GHz with higher sensitivity (it is 90% complete at 180 mJy in the best channel) and better angular resolution (from ~33' to ~5') than previous all-sky surveys in this frequency band. By construction its reliability is >80% and more than 65% of the sources have been detected at least in two contiguous Planck channels. In this paper we present the construction and validation of the PCCS, its contents and its statistical characterization.

  20. Planck 2013 results. XVI. Cosmological parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cappellini, B.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T.C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Haissinski, J.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hou, Z.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.B.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, D.; Pearson, T.J.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Platania, P.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-10-29

    We present the first results based on Planck measurements of the CMB temperature and lensing-potential power spectra. The Planck spectra at high multipoles are extremely well described by the standard spatially-flat six-parameter LCDM cosmology. In this model Planck data determine the cosmological parameters to high precision. We find a low value of the Hubble constant, H0=67.3+/-1.2 km/s/Mpc and a high value of the matter density parameter, Omega_m=0.315+/-0.017 (+/-1 sigma errors) in excellent agreement with constraints from baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) surveys. Including curvature, we find that the Universe is consistent with spatial flatness to percent-level precision using Planck CMB data alone. We present results from an analysis of extensions to the standard cosmology, using astrophysical data sets in addition to Planck and high-resolution CMB data. None of these models are favoured significantly over standard LCDM. The deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity is insensitive to the additi...

  1. Planck 2013 results. XIV. Zodiacal emission

    OpenAIRE

    Ade, PAR; Aghanim, N; Armitage-Caplan, C; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, AJ; Barreiro, RB; Bartlett, JG; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A

    2014-01-01

    © 2014 ESO. The Planck satellite provides a set of all-sky maps at nine frequencies from 30GHz to 857GHz. Planets, minor bodies, and diffuse interplanetary dust emission (IPD) are all observed. The IPD can be separated from Galactic and other emissions because Planck views a given point on the celestial sphere multiple times, through different columns of IPD. We use the Planck data to investigate the behaviour of zodiacal emission over the whole sky at sub-millimetre and millimetre wavelength...

  2. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  3. Planck 2013 results. XXXII. The updated Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2015-01-01

    We update the all-sky Planck catalogue of 1227 clusters and cluster candidates (PSZ1) published in March 2013, derived from detections of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect using the first 15.5 months of Planck satellite observations. As an addendum, we deliver an updated version of the PSZ1 catal...

  4. Planck 2013 results. XXXI. Consistency of the Planck data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.

    2014-01-01

    The Planck design and scanning strategy provide many levels of redundancy that can be exploited to provide tests of internal consistency. One of the most important is the comparison of the 70 GHz (amplifier) and 100 GHz (bolometer) channels. Based on dierent instrument technologies, with feeds...... in the HFI channels would result in shifts in the posterior distributions of parameters of less than 0.3σ except for As, the amplitude of the primordial curvature perturbations at 0.05 Mpc-1, which changes by about 1.We extend these comparisons to include the sky maps from the complete nine-year mission...... located dierently in the focal plane, analysed independently by dierent teams using dierent software, and near∫ the minimum of diuse foreground emission, these channels are in eect two dierent experiments. The 143 GHz channel has the lowest noise level on Planck, and is near the minimum of unresolved...

  5. The intellectual quadrangle: Mach-Boltzmann-Planck-Einstein

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broda, E.

    1981-01-01

    These four men were influential in the transition from classical to modern physics. They interacted as scientists, often antagonistically. Thus Boltzmann was the greatest champion of the atom, while Mach remained unconvinced all his life. As a aphysicist, Einstein was greatly influenced by both Mach and Boltzmann, although Mach in the end rejected relativity as well. Because of his work on statistical mechanics, fluctuations, and quantum theory, Einstein has been called the natural successor to Boltzmann. Planck also was influenced by Mach at first. Hence he and Boltzmann were adversaries antil Planck converted to atomistics in 1900 and used the statistical interpretation of entropy to establish his radiation law. Planck accepted relativity early, but in quantum theory he was for a long time partly opposed to Einstein, and vice versa - Einstein considered Planck's derivation of his radiation law as unsound, while Planck could not accept the light quantum. In the case of all four physicists, science was interwoven with philosophy. Boltzmann consistently fought Mach's positivism, while Planck and Einstein moved from positivism to realism. All were also, though in very different ways, actively interested in public affairs. (orig.)

  6. Planck 2015 results: XXVI. The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arguëso, F.

    2016-01-01

    The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources is a list of discrete objects detected in single-frequency maps from the full duration of the Planck mission and supersedes previous versions. It consists of compact sources, both Galactic and extragalactic, detected over the entire sky. Compact sour...

  7. Solving the Fokker-Planck equation on a massively parallel computer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirin, A.A.

    1990-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck package FPPAC had been converted to the Connection Machine 2 (CM2). For fine mesh cases the CM2 outperforms the Cray-2 when it comes to time-integrating the difference equations. For long Legendre expansions the CM2 is also faster at computing the Fokker-Planck coefficients. 3 refs

  8. Planck 2010

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Grojean, Christophe

    2010-01-01

    Planck 2010 From the Planck Scale to the ElectroWeak Scale The conference will be the twelfth one in a series of meetings on physics beyond the Standard Model, organized jointly by several European groups: Bonn, CERN, Ecole Polytechnique, ICTP, Madrid, Oxford, Padua, Pisa, SISSA and Warsaw as part of activities in the framework of the European network UNILHC.Topics to be discussed: Supersymmetry Supergravity & string phenomenology Extra dimensions Electroweak symmetry breaking LHC and Tevatron Physics Collider physics Flavor & neutrinos physics Astroparticle & cosmology Gravity & holography Strongly coupled physics & CFT Registration: registration will be open until May 1st. Registration fees amount to 150 CHF and cover the cost of the coffee breaks and the social dinner. Payment has to be made online. The deadline for registration has been postponed to May 7th. However, after May 3th, we shall not accept any talk reques...

  9. Quantum Gravity corrections and entropy at the Planck time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basilakos, Spyros; Vagenas, Elias C.; Das, Saurya

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the effects of Quantum Gravity on the Planck era of the universe. In particular, using different versions of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle and under specific conditions we find that the main Planck quantities such as the Planck time, length, mass and energy become larger by a factor of order 10−10 4 compared to those quantities which result from the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. However, we prove that the dimensionless entropy enclosed in the cosmological horizon at the Planck time remains unchanged. These results, though preliminary, indicate that we should anticipate modifications in the set-up of cosmology since changes in the Planck era will be inherited even to the late universe through the framework of Quantum Gravity (or Quantum Field Theory) which utilizes the Planck scale as a fundamental one. More importantly, these corrections will not affect the entropic content of the universe at the Planck time which is a crucial element for one of the basic principles of Quantum Gravity named Holographic Principle

  10. Planck 2013 results. XIV. Zodiacal emission

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.-R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colley, J.-M.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Mottet, S.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; O'Sullivan, C.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polegre, A. M.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Smoot, G. F.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Planck satellite provides a set of all-sky maps at nine frequencies from 30 GHz to 857 GHz. Planets, minor bodies, and diffuse interplanetary dust emission (IPD) are all observed. The IPD can be separated from Galactic and other emissions because Planck views a given point on the celestial sphere multiple times, through different columns of IPD. We use the Planck data to investigate the behaviour of zodiacal emission over the whole sky at sub-millimetre and millimetre wavelengths. We fit the Planck data to find the emissivities of the various components of the COBE zodiacal model -- a diffuse cloud, three asteroidal dust bands, a circumsolar ring, and an Earth-trailing feature. The emissivity of the diffuse cloud decreases with increasing wavelength, as expected from earlier analyses. The emissivities of the dust bands, however, decrease less rapidly, indicating that the properties of the grains in the bands are different from those in the diffuse cloud. We fit the small amount of Galactic emission seen t...

  11. The Planck Legacy Archive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupac, X.; Arviset, C.; Fernandez Barreiro, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Tauber, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Planck Collaboration has released in 2015 their second major dataset through the Planck Legacy Archive (PLA). It includes cosmological, Extragalactic and Galactic science data in temperature (intensity) and polarization. Full-sky maps are provided with unprecedented angular resolution and sensitivity, together with a large number of ancillary maps, catalogues (generic, SZ clusters and Galactic cold clumps), time-ordered data and other information. The extensive cosmological likelihood package allows cosmologists to fully explore the plausible parameters of the Universe. A new web-based PLA user interface is made public since Dec. 2014, allowing easier and faster access to all Planck data, and replacing the previous Java-based software. Numerous additional improvements to the PLA are also being developed through the so-called PLA Added-Value Interface, making use of an external contract with the Planetek Hellas and Expert Analytics software companies. This will allow users to process time-ordered data into sky maps, separate astrophysical components in existing maps, simulate the microwave and infrared sky through the Planck Sky Model, and use a number of other functionalities.

  12. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  13. Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shu-Chieh; Luna, Rocio; Johnson, Walter W.

    2013-01-01

    Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

  14. Planck 2013 Results. XXIV. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The Planck nominal mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps yield unprecedented constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).Using three optimal bispectrum estimators, separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal, we obtain consistent values for the primordiallocal, equilateral, an...

  15. Application of the Fokker-Plank-Kolmogorov equation for affluence forecast to hydropower reservoirs (Betania Case)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominguez Calle, Efrain Antonio

    2004-01-01

    This paper shows a modeling technique to forecast probability density curves for the flows that represent the monthly affluence to hydropower reservoirs. Briefly, the factors that require affluence forecast in terms of probabilities, the ranges of existing forecast methods as well as the contradiction between those techniques and the real requirements of decision-making procedures are pointed out. The mentioned contradiction is resolved applying the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation that describes the time evolution of a stochastic process that can be considered as markovian. We show the numerical scheme for this equation, its initial and boundary conditions, and its application results in the case of Betania's reservoir

  16. Planck intermediate results: IV. the XMM-Newton validation programme for new Planck galaxy clusters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, J.G.; Delabrouille, J.; Ganga, K.

    2013-01-01

    We present the final results from the XMM-Newton validation follow-up of new Planck galaxy cluster candidates. We observed 15 new candidates, detected with signal-to-noise ratios between 4.0 and 6.1 in the 15.5-month nominal Planck survey. The candidates were selected using ancillary data flags d...

  17. Cosmic Microwave Background: cosmology from the Planck perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Zotti, Gianfranco

    2017-08-01

    The Planck mission has measured the angular anisotropies in the temperature of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) with an accuracy set by fundamental limits. These data have allowed the determination of the cosmological parameters with extraordinary precision. These lecture notes present an overview of the mission and of its cosmological results. After a short history of the project, the Planck instruments and their performances are introduced and compared with those of the WMAP satellite. Next the approach to data analysis adopted by the Planck collaboration is described. This includes the techniques for dealing with the contamination of the CMB signal by astrophysical foreground emissions and for determining cosmological parameters from the analysis of the CMB power spectrum. The power spectra measured by Planck were found to be very well described by the standard spatially flat six-parameter ΛCDM cosmology with a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations. This is a remarkable result, considering that the six parameters account for the about 2500 independent power spectrum values measured by Planck (the power was measured for about 2500 multipoles), not to mention the about one trillion science samples produced. A large grid of cosmological models was also explored, using a range of additional astrophysical data sets in addition to Planck and high-resolution CMB data from ground-based experiments. On the whole, the Planck analysis of the CMB power spectrum allowed to vary and determined 16 parameters. Many other interesting parameters were derived from them. Although Planck was not initially designed to carry out high accuracy measurements of the CMB polarization anisotropies, its capabilities in this respect were significantly enhanced during its development. The quality of its polarization measurements have exceeded all original expectations. Planck's polarisation data confirmed and improved the understanding of the details of the cosmological

  18. Planck Intermediate Results. IX. Detection of the Galactic haze with Planck

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    Using precise full-sky observations from Planck, and applying several methods of component separation, we identify and characterize the emission from the Galactic "haze" at microwave wavelengths. The haze is a distinct component of diffuse Galactic emission, roughly centered on the Galactic centre...

  19. Composite inflation confronts BICEP2 and PLANCK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karwan, Khamphee; Channuie, Phongpichit

    2014-01-01

    We examine observational constraints on single-field inflation in which the inflaton is a composite field stemming from a four-dimensional strongly interacting field theory. We confront the predictions with the Planck and very recent BICEP2 data. In the large non-minimal coupling regions, we discover for the minimal composite inflationary model that the predictions lie well inside the joint 68% CL for the Planck data, but is in tension with the recent BICEP2 observations. In the case of the glueball inflationary model, the predictions satisfy the Planck results. However, this model can produce a large tensor-to-scalar ratio consistent with the recent BICEP2 observations if the number of e-foldings is slightly smaller than the range commonly used. For a super Yang-Mills paradigm, we discover that the predictions satisfy the Planck data, and surprisingly a large tensor-to-scalar ratio consistent with the BICEP2 results can also be produced for an acceptable range of the number of e-foldings and of the confining scale. In the small non-minimal coupling regions, all of the models can satisfy the BICEP2 results. However, the predictions of the glueball and superglueball inflationary models cannot satisfy the observational bound on the amplitude of the curvature perturbation launched by Planck, and the techni-inflaton self-coupling in the minimal composite inflationary model is constrained to be extremely small

  20. Quantum black holes and Planck's constant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, D.K.

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that the Planck-scale black holes of quantum gravity must obey a consistency condition relating Planck's constant to the integral of the mass of the black holes over time, if the usual path integral formulation of quantum mechanics is to make sense on physical spacetime. It is also shown, using time-dependent perturbation theory in ordinary quantum mechanics, that a massless particle will not propagate on physical spacetime with the black holes present unless the same condition is met. (author)

  1. Planck 2015 results: XXVIII. The Planck Catalogue of Galactic cold clumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the Planck Catalogue of Galactic Cold Clumps (PGCC), an all-sky catalogue of Galactic cold clump candidates detected by Planck. This catalogue is the full version of the Early Cold Core (ECC) catalogue, which was made available in 2011 with the Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (E...

  2. Planck-scale effects on WIMP dark matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofiane M Boucenna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There exists a widely known conjecture that gravitational effects violate global symmetries. We study the effect of global-symmetry violating higher-dimension operators induced by Planck-scale physics on the properties of WIMP dark matter. Using an effective description, we show that the lifetime of the WIMP dark matter candidate can satisfy cosmological bounds under reasonable assumptions regarding the strength of the dimension-five operators. On the other hand, the indirect WIMP dark matter detection signal is significantly enhanced due to new decay channels.

  3. Redefining Planck Mass: Unlocking the Fundamental Quantum of the Universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laubenstein, John

    2008-04-01

    The large value of the Planck Mass relative to the quantum scale raises unanswered questions as to the source of mass itself. While we wait for experimental verification of the elusive Higgs boson, it may be worth recognizing that Planck Mass is not the result of rigorous mathematics -- but rather derived from an intuitive manipulation of physical constants. Recent findings reported by IWPD suggest a quantum scale Planck Mass as small as 10 (-73) kg. At this scale, the Planck Mass joins Planck Length and Time as a truly fundamental quantum entity. This presentation will provide evidence supporting the fundamental quantum nature of a dramatically smaller Planck Mass while discussing the impact of this finding on both the quantum and cosmic scale. A quantum scale Planck Mass will require an accelerating expansion of the universe at an age of 14.2 billion years. No initial conditions are imposed at the earliest Planck Time of 10 (-44) s allowing the universe to evolve as a background free field propagating at the speed of light with a local degree of freedom. This model provides the basis for a quantum theory of gravity and provides a conceptual pathway for the unification of GR and QM.

  4. Planck 2015 results. XIX. Constraints on primordial magnetic fields

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Arroja, F.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Ballardini, M.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Chluba, J.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Florido, E.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oppermann, N.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Ruiz-Granados, B.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Shiraishi, M.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    We predict and investigate four types of imprint of a stochastic background of primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies: the impact of PMFs on the CMB spectra; the effect on CMB polarization induced by Faraday rotation; magnetically-induced non-Gaussianities; and the magnetically-induced breaking of statistical isotropy. Overall, Planck data constrain the amplitude of PMFs to less than a few nanogauss. In particular, individual limits coming from the analysis of the CMB angular power spectra, using the Planck likelihood, are $B_{1\\,\\mathrm{Mpc}}< 4.4$ nG (where $B_{1\\,\\mathrm{Mpc}}$ is the comoving field amplitude at a scale of 1 Mpc) at 95% confidence level, assuming zero helicity, and $B_{1\\,\\mathrm{Mpc}}< 5.6$ nG when we consider a maximally helical field. For nearly scale-invariant PMFs we obtain $B_{1\\,\\mathrm{Mpc}}<2.1$ nG and $B_{1\\,\\mathrm{Mpc}}<0.7$ nG if the impact of PMFs on the ionization history of the Universe is included in the analysis...

  5. Massively parallel Fokker-Planck calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirin, A.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that the Fokker-Planck package FPPAC, which solves the complete nonlinear multispecies Fokker-Planck collision operator for a plasma in two-dimensional velocity space, has been rewritten for the Connection Machine 2. This has involved allocation of variables either to the front end or the CM2, minimization of data flow, and replacement of Cray-optimized algorithms with ones suitable for a massively parallel architecture. Calculations have been carried out on various Connection Machines throughout the country. Results and timings on these machines have been compared to each other and to those on the static memory Cray-2. For large problem size, the Connection Machine 2 is found to be cost-efficient

  6. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  7. Calibrating the Planck cluster mass scale with CLASH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penna-Lima, M.; Bartlett, J. G.; Rozo, E.; Melin, J.-B.; Merten, J.; Evrard, A. E.; Postman, M.; Rykoff, E.

    2017-08-01

    We determine the mass scale of Planck galaxy clusters using gravitational lensing mass measurements from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). We have compared the lensing masses to the Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) mass proxy for 21 clusters in common, employing a Bayesian analysis to simultaneously fit an idealized CLASH selection function and the distribution between the measured observables and true cluster mass. We used a tiered analysis strategy to explicitly demonstrate the importance of priors on weak lensing mass accuracy. In the case of an assumed constant bias, bSZ, between true cluster mass, M500, and the Planck mass proxy, MPL, our analysis constrains 1-bSZ = 0.73 ± 0.10 when moderate priors on weak lensing accuracy are used, including a zero-mean Gaussian with standard deviation of 8% to account for possible bias in lensing mass estimations. Our analysis explicitly accounts for possible selection bias effects in this calibration sourced by the CLASH selection function. Our constraint on the cluster mass scale is consistent with recent results from the Weighing the Giants program and the Canadian Cluster Comparison Project. It is also consistent, at 1.34σ, with the value needed to reconcile the Planck SZ cluster counts with Planck's base ΛCDM model fit to the primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies.

  8. Planck intermediate results. XXVI. Optical identification and redshifts of Planck clusters with the RTT150 telescope

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2015-01-01

    We present the results of approximately three years of observations of Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources with the Russian-Turkish 1.5m telescope (RTT150), as a part of the optical follow-up programme undertaken by the Planck collaboration. During this time period approximately 20% of all dark...

  9. Planck driven by vision, broken by war

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Brandon R

    2015-01-01

    Planck's Law, an equation used by physicists to determine the radiation leaking from any object in the universe, was described by Albert Einstein as "the basis of all twentieth-century physics." Max Planck is credited with being the father of quantum theory, and his work laid the foundation for our modern understanding of matter and energetic processes. But Planck's story is not well known, especially in the United States. A German physicist working during the first half of the twentieth century, his library, personal journals, notebooks, and letters were all destroyed with his home in World War II. What remains, other than his contributions to science, are handwritten letters in German shorthand, and tributes from other scientists of the time, including his close friend Albert Einstein. In Planck: Driven by Vision, Broken by War, Brandon R. Brown interweaves the voices and writings of Planck, his family, and his contemporaries-with many passages appearing in English for the first time-to create a portrait of...

  10. Planck 2015 results. XXI. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Casaponsa, B.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Génova-Santos, R.T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Ilić, S.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Langer, M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Ma, Y.-Z.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marcos-Caballero, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Schaefer, B.M.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, F.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the ISW effect from the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data release. The CMB is cross-correlated with different LSS tracers: the NVSS, SDSS and WISE catalogues, and the Planck 2015 convergence lensing map. This cross-correlation yields a detection at $4\\,\\sigma$, where most of the signal-to-noise is due to the Planck lensing and NVSS. In fact, the ISW effect is detected only from the Planck data (through the ISW-lensing bispectrum) at $\\approx 3\\,\\sigma$, which is similar to the detection level achieved by combining the cross-correlation signal coming from all the catalogues. This cross-correlation analysis is performed only with the Planck temperature data, since the polarization scales available in the 2015 release do not permit significant improvement of the CMB-LSS cross-correlation detectability. Nevertheless, polarization data is used to study the anomalously large ISW signal previously reported through the aperture photometry on stacked CMB features at the locat...

  11. On the Fokker-Planck theory of electron three-body recombination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayasov, Yu. S.

    1977-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck theory of electron three-body recombination based on the concept of electron diffusion along the energy scale in the excited hydrogen-like atoms formed in the recombining plasmas, is extended in several respects. 1) An universal formula for population distribution of the excited atoms in strongly ionized plasmas was found under a sole assumption, that the cross-sections for the inelastic atom-electron collisions are governed by the classical impulse approximation. 2) A general Fokker-Planck theory of the recombination in a slightly ionized, two-temperature plasmas was formulated. The recombination coefficients for such plasmas were shown to possess some peculiar properties in case the electronic temperature differs appreciable from the atomic one. A few limitations of the existing schemas for calculation of the recombination kinetics are briefly discussed. (orig.) [de

  12. The physicist. Max Planck and the decay of the world; Der Physiker. Max Planck und das Zerfallen der Welt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Ernst Peter

    2010-06-15

    The live of the physicist Max Planck was as exciting, conflicting, and rich on catastrophes as the epoch, in which he lived. Ernst Peter Fischer draws in this fascinatingly told biography the eventful history of the Nobel-price bearer and illustrates simultaneously the unique attainment of Planck, the quantum theory of whom not only revolted the science but also changed fundamentally our picture of the world.

  13. Planck satellite constraints on pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson quintessence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smer-Barreto, Vanessa; Liddle, Andrew R., E-mail: vsm@roe.ac.uk, E-mail: arl@roe.ac.uk [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom)

    2017-01-01

    The pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Boson (PNGB) potential, defined through the amplitude M {sup 4} and width f of its characteristic potential V (φ) = M {sup 4}[1 + cos(φ/ f )], is one of the best-suited models for the study of thawing quintessence. We analyse its present observational constraints by direct numerical solution of the scalar field equation of motion. Observational bounds are obtained using Supernovae data, cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization and lensing data from Planck , direct Hubble constant constraints, and baryon acoustic oscillations data. We find the parameter ranges for which PNGB quintessence gives a viable theory for dark energy. This exact approach is contrasted with the use of an approximate equation-of-state parametrization for thawing theories. We also discuss other possible parameterization choices, as well as commenting on the accuracy of the constraints imposed by Planck alone. Overall our analysis highlights a significant prior dependence to the outcome coming from the choice of modelling methodology, which current data are not sufficient to override.

  14. Planck 2015 results: V. LFI calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Ashdown, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present a description of the pipeline used to calibrate the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) timelines into thermodynamic temperatures for the Planck 2015 data release, covering four years of uninterrupted operations. As in the 2013 data release, our calibrator is provided by the spin-syn...

  15. 3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-02-01

    We present the application of interactive 3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and forecast wind field resolution. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (three to seven days before take-off).

  16. Poisson-Boltzmann-Nernst-Planck model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Qiong; Wei Guowei

    2011-01-01

    The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model is based on a mean-field approximation of ion interactions and continuum descriptions of concentration and electrostatic potential. It provides qualitative explanation and increasingly quantitative predictions of experimental measurements for the ion transport problems in many areas such as semiconductor devices, nanofluidic systems, and biological systems, despite many limitations. While the PNP model gives a good prediction of the ion transport phenomenon for chemical, physical, and biological systems, the number of equations to be solved and the number of diffusion coefficient profiles to be determined for the calculation directly depend on the number of ion species in the system, since each ion species corresponds to one Nernst-Planck equation and one position-dependent diffusion coefficient profile. In a complex system with multiple ion species, the PNP can be computationally expensive and parameter demanding, as experimental measurements of diffusion coefficient profiles are generally quite limited for most confined regions such as ion channels, nanostructures and nanopores. We propose an alternative model to reduce number of Nernst-Planck equations to be solved in complex chemical and biological systems with multiple ion species by substituting Nernst-Planck equations with Boltzmann distributions of ion concentrations. As such, we solve the coupled Poisson-Boltzmann and Nernst-Planck (PBNP) equations, instead of the PNP equations. The proposed PBNP equations are derived from a total energy functional by using the variational principle. We design a number of computational techniques, including the Dirichlet to Neumann mapping, the matched interface and boundary, and relaxation based iterative procedure, to ensure efficient solution of the proposed PBNP equations. Two protein molecules, cytochrome c551 and Gramicidin A, are employed to validate the proposed model under a wide range of bulk ion concentrations and external

  17. The contrasting roles of Planck's constant in classical and quantum theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Timothy H.

    2018-04-01

    We trace the historical appearance of Planck's constant in physics, and we note that initially the constant did not appear in connection with quanta. Furthermore, we emphasize that Planck's constant can appear in both classical and quantum theories. In both theories, Planck's constant sets the scale of atomic phenomena. However, the roles played in the foundations of the theories are sharply different. In quantum theory, Planck's constant is crucial to the structure of the theory. On the other hand, in classical electrodynamics, Planck's constant is optional, since it appears only as the scale factor for the (homogeneous) source-free contribution to the general solution of Maxwell's equations. Since classical electrodynamics can be solved while taking the homogenous source-free contribution in the solution as zero or non-zero, there are naturally two different theories of classical electrodynamics, one in which Planck's constant is taken as zero and one where it is taken as non-zero. The textbooks of classical electromagnetism present only the version in which Planck's constant is taken to vanish.

  18. German science. Max Planck charts new path.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, R

    2000-06-09

    Germany's premier basic research organization, the Max Planck Society, released a long-awaited blueprint for change during its annual meeting this week, recommending that the society's nearly 3000 scientists embrace more interdisciplinary and international projects in a range of new research priorities. The report, called Max Planck 2000-Plus, is the product of an 18-month-long internal review. Its recommendations were formulated by some two dozen Max Planck researchers and administrators, who sought input from every institute.

  19. Planck 2013 results. XIV. Zodiacal emission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    , three asteroidal dust bands, a circumsolar ring, and an Earth-trailing feature. The emissivity of the diuse cloud decreases with increasing wavelength, as expected from earlier analyses. The emissivities of the dust bands, however, decrease less rapidly, indicating that the properties of the grains......The Planck satellite provides a set of all-sky maps at nine frequencies from 30 GHz to 857 GHz. Planets, minor bodies, and diuse interplanetary dust emission (IPD) are all observed. The IPD can be separated from Galactic and other emissions because Planck views a given point on the celestial sphere...

  20. Brief review of Planck law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamora Carranza, M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a brief review of the scientific events which led to the determination of the law of radiation and the quantisation of energy by Max Planck. From the separation of sunlight by Newton to the reasons which led Planck to quantised the energy of an oscillator. I discuss the theoretical and experimental difficulties which scientists overcame to derive the law of heat radiation. (Author) 6 refs

  1. Highly accurate photogrammetric measurements of the Planck reflectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri Parian, Jafar; Gruen, Armin; Cozzani, Alessandro

    2017-11-01

    The Planck mission of the European Space Agency (ESA) is designed to image the anisotropies of the Cosmic Background Radiation Field over the whole sky. To achieve this aim, sophisticated reflectors are used as part of the Planck telescope receiving system. The system consists of secondary and primary reflectors which are sections of two different ellipsoids of revolution with mean diameters of 1 and 1.6 meters. Deformations of the reflectors which influence the optical parameters and the gain of receiving signals are investigated in vacuum and at very low temperatures. For this investigation, among the various high accuracy measurement techniques, photogrammetry was selected. With respect to the photogrammetric measurements, special considerations had to be taken into account in design steps, measurement arrangement and data processing to achieve very high accuracies. The determinability of additional parameters of the camera under the given network configuration, datum definition, reliability and precision issues as well as workspace limits and propagating errors from different sources are considered. We have designed an optimal photogrammetric network by heuristic simulation for the flight model of the primary and the secondary reflectors with relative precisions better than 1:1000'000 and 1:400'000 to achieve the requested accuracies. A least squares best fit ellipsoid method was developed to determine the optical parameters of the reflectors. In this paper we will report about the procedures, the network design and the results of real measurements.

  2. Planck 2013 results. XII. Diffuse component separation

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Armitage-Caplan, C; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Bartlett, J G; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bonavera, L; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Boulanger, F; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Challinor, A; Chamballu, A; Chary, R -R; Chen, X; Chiang, L -Y; Chiang, H C; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Clements, D L; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Couchot, F; Coulais, A; Crill, B P; Cruz, M; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Delouis, J -M; Désert, F -X; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dunkley, J; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Falgarone, E; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Fraisse, A A; Franceschi, E; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giardino, G; Giraud-Héraud, Y; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Helou, G; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huey, G; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kisner, T S; Kneissl, R; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Jeune, M Le; Leach, S; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maffei, B; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Marcos-Caballero, A; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mikkelsen, K; Mitra, S; Miville-Deschênes, M -A; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Nati, F; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Noviello, F; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Oxborrow, C A; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Pajot, F; Paladini, R; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, T J; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pettorino, V; Piacentini, F; Piat, M; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Platania, P; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Reach, W T; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Renault, C; Renzi, A; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Ristorcelli, I; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Roudier, G; Rowan-Robinson, M; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Salerno, E; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Savini, G; Schiavon, F; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stompor, R; Sudiwala, R; Sunyaev, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Viel, M; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Wehus, I K; Wilkinson, A; Xia, J -Q; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    Planck has produced detailed all-sky observations over nine frequency bands between 30 and 857 GHz. These observations allow robust reconstruction of the primordial cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature fluctuations over nearly the full sky, as well as new constraints on Galactic foregrounds. This paper describes the component separation framework adopted by Planck. We test four foreground-cleaned CMB maps derived using qualitatively different component separation algorithms. The quality of our reconstructions is evaluated through detailed simulations and internal comparisons, and shown through various tests to be internally consistent and robust for CMB power spectrum and cosmological parameter estimation up to l = 2000. The parameter constraints on LambdaCDM cosmologies derived from these maps are consistent with those presented in the cross-spectrum based Planck likelihood analysis. We choose two of the CMB maps for specific scientific goals. We also present maps and frequency spectra of the Galact...

  3. Max Planck et les quanta

    CERN Document Server

    Boudenot, Jean-Claude

    2016-01-01

    « Les atomes, dit Jean Perrin en 1913, ne sont pas ces éléments éternels et insécables dont l'irréductible simplicité donnait au possible une borne, et, dans leur inimaginable petitesse, nous commençons à pressentir un fourmillement prodigieux de mondes nouveaux ». C'est bien dans un monde totalement nouveau, le monde quantique, que nous a fait pénétrer la découverte des quanta par Max Planck. Son article de 1900 est le déclencheur de l'une des plus grandes révolutions scientifiques de tous les temps. Les trente années qui suivent sont les plus riches de la physique ; Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Sommerfeld, de Broglie, Schrödinger, Heisenberg, Dirac, Born, Pauli… reconstruisent la physique sur de nouvelles bases sur fond de conflit des générations. Le monde est par ailleurs secoué par la guerre, Max Planck est tourmenté et vit des épreuves personnelles dramatiques. C'est l'homme, aussi bien que l'oeuvre, que les auteurs ont tenté de dépeindre dans cet ouvrage. Ils ont également souhait�...

  4. Calibrating the Planck Cluster Mass Scale with Cluster Velocity Dispersions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amodeo, Stefania; Mei, Simona; Stanford, Spencer A.; Bartlett, James G.; Melin, Jean-Baptiste; Lawrence, Charles R.; Chary, Ranga-Ram; Shim, Hyunjin; Marleau, Francine; Stern, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    We measure the Planck cluster mass bias using dynamical mass measurements based on velocity dispersions of a subsample of 17 Planck-detected clusters. The velocity dispersions were calculated using redshifts determined from spectra that were obtained at the Gemini observatory with the GMOS multi-object spectrograph. We correct our estimates for effects due to finite aperture, Eddington bias, and correlated scatter between velocity dispersion and the Planck mass proxy. The result for the mass bias parameter, (1-b), depends on the value of the galaxy velocity bias, {b}{{v}}, adopted from simulations: (1-b)=(0.51+/- 0.09){b}{{v}}3. Using a velocity bias of {b}{{v}}=1.08 from Munari et al., we obtain (1-b)=0.64+/- 0.11, I.e., an error of 17% on the mass bias measurement with 17 clusters. This mass bias value is consistent with most previous weak-lensing determinations. It lies within 1σ of the value that is needed to reconcile the Planck cluster counts with the Planck primary cosmic microwave background constraints. We emphasize that uncertainty in the velocity bias severely hampers the precision of the measurements of the mass bias using velocity dispersions. On the other hand, when we fix the Planck mass bias using the constraints from Penna-Lima et al., based on weak-lensing measurements, we obtain a positive velocity bias of {b}{{v}}≳ 0.9 at 3σ .

  5. Dark radiation sterile neutrino candidates after Planck data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valentino, Eleonora Di; Melchiorri, Alessandro [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' ' La Sapienza' ' , Ple Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy); Mena, Olga, E-mail: eleonora.divalentino@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: alessandro.melchiorri@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: omena@ific.uv.es [IFIC, Universidad de Valencia-CSIC, 46071, Valencia (Spain)

    2013-11-01

    Recent Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) results from the Planck satellite, combined with previous CMB data and Hubble constant measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope, provide a constraint on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom 3.62{sup +0.50}{sub −0.48} at 95% CL. New Planck data provide a unique opportunity to place limits on models containing relativistic species at the decoupling epoch. We present here the bounds on sterile neutrino models combining Planck data with galaxy clustering information. Assuming N{sub eff} active plus sterile massive neutrino species, in the case of a Planck+WP+HighL+HST analysis we find m{sub ν,} {sub sterile}{sup eff} < 0.36 eV and 3.14 < N{sub eff} < 4.15 at 95% CL, while using Planck+WP+HighL data in combination with the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey BOSS Data Relase 9 measurements, we find that 3.30 < N{sub eff} < 4.43 and m{sub ν,} {sub sterile}{sup eff} < 0.33 eV both at 95% CL with the three active neutrinos having the minimum mass allowed in the normal hierarchy scheme, i.e. ∑m{sub ν} ∼ 0.06 eV. These values compromise the viability of the (3+2) massive sterile neutrino models for the parameter region indicated by global fits of neutrino oscillation data. Within the (3+1) massive sterile neutrino scenario, we find m{sub ν,} {sub sterile}{sup eff} < 0.34 eV at 95% CL. While the existence of one extra sterile massive neutrino state is compatible with current oscillation data, the values for the sterile neutrino mass preferred by oscillation analyses are significantly higher than the current cosmological bound. We review as well the bounds on extended dark sectors with additional light species based on the latest Planck CMB observations.

  6. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

  7. Parity at the Planck scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzano, Michele; Gubitosi, Giulia; Magueijo, João

    2018-06-01

    We explore the possibility that well known properties of the parity operator, such as its idempotency and unitarity, might break down at the Planck scale. Parity might then do more than just swap right and left polarized states and reverse the sign of spatial momentum k: it might generate superpositions of right and left handed states, as well as mix momenta of different magnitudes. We lay down the general formalism, but also consider the concrete case of the Planck scale kinematics governed by κ-Poincaré symmetries, where some of the general features highlighted appear explicitly. We explore some of the observational implications for cosmological fluctuations. Different power spectra for right handed and left handed tensor modes might actually be a manifestation of deformed parity symmetry at the Planck scale. Moreover, scale-invariance and parity symmetry appear deeply interconnected.

  8. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T.C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Lindholm, V.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Orieux, F.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Paykari, P.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rahlin, A.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanselme, L.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present the Planck likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations. We use this likelihood to derive the Planck CMB power spectrum over three decades in l, covering 2 = 50, we employ a correlated Gaussian likelihood approximation based on angular cross-spectra derived from the 100, 143 and 217 GHz channels. We validate our likelihood through an extensive suite of consistency tests, and assess the impact of residual foreground and instrumental uncertainties on cosmological parameters. We find good internal agreement among the high-l cross-spectra with residuals of a few uK^2 at l <= 1000. We compare our results with foreground-cleaned CMB maps, and with cross-spectra derived from the 70 GHz Planck map, and find broad agreement in terms of spectrum residuals and cosmological parameters. The best-fit LCDM cosmology is in excellent agreement with preliminary Planck polarisation spectra. The standard LCDM cosmology is well constrained b...

  9. Planck intermediate results. XXIV. Constraints on variation of fundamental constants

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Dore, O.; Dupac, X.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fabre, O.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prunet, S.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Roudier, G.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Sudiwala, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Uzan, J.P.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2015-01-01

    Any variation of the fundamental physical constants, and more particularly of the fine structure constant, $\\alpha$, or of the mass of the electron, $m_e$, would affect the recombination history of the Universe and cause an imprint on the cosmic microwave background angular power spectra. We show that the Planck data allow one to improve the constraint on the time variation of the fine structure constant at redshift $z\\sim 10^3$ by about a factor of 5 compared to WMAP data, as well as to break the degeneracy with the Hubble constant, $H_0$. In addition to $\\alpha$, we can set a constraint on the variation of the mass of the electron, $m_{\\rm e}$, and on the simultaneous variation of the two constants. We examine in detail the degeneracies between fundamental constants and the cosmological parameters, in order to compare the limits obtained from Planck and WMAP and to determine the constraining power gained by including other cosmological probes. We conclude that independent time variations of the fine structu...

  10. Excess B‐modes extracted from the Planck polarization maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard-Nielsen, Hans Ulrik

    2016-01-01

    on both temperature and polarization data obtained by the WMAP satellite. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of neural networks for extracting the CMB signal from the Planck polarization data with high precision. Both auto‐correlation and cross‐correlation power spectra within...... a mask covering about 63 % of the sky have been used together with a “high pass filter” in order to minimize the influence of the remaining systematic errors in the Planck Q and U maps. Using the Planck 2015 released polarization maps, a BB power spectrum have been extracted by Multilayer Perceptron...... tensor to scalar ratios). The feasibility of the neural network to remove the residual systematics from the available Planck polarization data to a high level has been demonstrated. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)...

  11. 77 FR 14504 - Max Planck Florida Institute, et al.; Notice of Consolidated Decision on Applications for Duty...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-12

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Max Planck Florida Institute, et al.; Notice of Consolidated Decision on Applications for Duty-Free Entry of Electron Microscope This is a... Constitution Avenue NW., Washington, DC. Docket Number: 11-061. Applicant: Max Planck Florida Institute...

  12. Forecasting Tools Point to Fishing Hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Private weather forecaster WorldWinds Inc. of Slidell, Louisiana has employed satellite-gathered oceanic data from Marshall Space Flight Center to create a service that is every fishing enthusiast s dream. The company's FishBytes system uses information about sea surface temperature and chlorophyll levels to forecast favorable conditions for certain fish populations. Transmitting the data to satellite radio subscribers, FishBytes provides maps that guide anglers to the areas they are most likely to make their favorite catch.

  13. Planck-scale-modified dispersion relations in FRW spacetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosati, Giacomo; Amelino-Camelia, Giovanni; Marcianò, Antonino; Matassa, Marco

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, Planck-scale modifications of the dispersion relation have been attracting increasing interest also from the viewpoint of possible applications in astrophysics and cosmology, where spacetime curvature cannot be neglected. Nonetheless, the interplay between Planck-scale effects and spacetime curvature is still poorly understood, particularly in cases where curvature is not constant. These challenges have been so far postponed by relying on an ansatz, first introduced by Jacob and Piran. We propose here a general strategy of analysis of the effects of modifications of the dispersion relation in Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetimes, applicable both to cases where the relativistic equivalence of frames is spoiled ("preferred-frame scenarios") and to the alternative possibility of "DSR-relativistic theories," theories that are fully relativistic but with relativistic laws deformed so that the modified dispersion relation is observer independent. We show that the Jacob-Piran ansatz implicitly assumes that spacetime translations are not affected by the Planck scale, while under rather general conditions, the same Planck-scale quantum-spacetime structures producing modifications of the dispersion relation also affect translations. Through the explicit analysis of one of the effects produced by modifications of the dispersion relation, an effect amounting to Planck-scale corrections to travel times, we show that our concerns are not merely conceptual but rather can have significant quantitative implications.

  14. Poisson–Boltzmann–Nernst–Planck model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qiong; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2011-01-01

    The Poisson–Nernst–Planck (PNP) model is based on a mean-field approximation of ion interactions and continuum descriptions of concentration and electrostatic potential. It provides qualitative explanation and increasingly quantitative predictions of experimental measurements for the ion transport problems in many areas such as semiconductor devices, nanofluidic systems, and biological systems, despite many limitations. While the PNP model gives a good prediction of the ion transport phenomenon for chemical, physical, and biological systems, the number of equations to be solved and the number of diffusion coefficient profiles to be determined for the calculation directly depend on the number of ion species in the system, since each ion species corresponds to one Nernst–Planck equation and one position-dependent diffusion coefficient profile. In a complex system with multiple ion species, the PNP can be computationally expensive and parameter demanding, as experimental measurements of diffusion coefficient profiles are generally quite limited for most confined regions such as ion channels, nanostructures and nanopores. We propose an alternative model to reduce number of Nernst–Planck equations to be solved in complex chemical and biological systems with multiple ion species by substituting Nernst–Planck equations with Boltzmann distributions of ion concentrations. As such, we solve the coupled Poisson–Boltzmann and Nernst–Planck (PBNP) equations, instead of the PNP equations. The proposed PBNP equations are derived from a total energy functional by using the variational principle. We design a number of computational techniques, including the Dirichlet to Neumann mapping, the matched interface and boundary, and relaxation based iterative procedure, to ensure efficient solution of the proposed PBNP equations. Two protein molecules, cytochrome c551 and Gramicidin A, are employed to validate the proposed model under a wide range of bulk ion concentrations

  15. Poisson-Boltzmann-Nernst-Planck model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qiong; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2011-05-21

    The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model is based on a mean-field approximation of ion interactions and continuum descriptions of concentration and electrostatic potential. It provides qualitative explanation and increasingly quantitative predictions of experimental measurements for the ion transport problems in many areas such as semiconductor devices, nanofluidic systems, and biological systems, despite many limitations. While the PNP model gives a good prediction of the ion transport phenomenon for chemical, physical, and biological systems, the number of equations to be solved and the number of diffusion coefficient profiles to be determined for the calculation directly depend on the number of ion species in the system, since each ion species corresponds to one Nernst-Planck equation and one position-dependent diffusion coefficient profile. In a complex system with multiple ion species, the PNP can be computationally expensive and parameter demanding, as experimental measurements of diffusion coefficient profiles are generally quite limited for most confined regions such as ion channels, nanostructures and nanopores. We propose an alternative model to reduce number of Nernst-Planck equations to be solved in complex chemical and biological systems with multiple ion species by substituting Nernst-Planck equations with Boltzmann distributions of ion concentrations. As such, we solve the coupled Poisson-Boltzmann and Nernst-Planck (PBNP) equations, instead of the PNP equations. The proposed PBNP equations are derived from a total energy functional by using the variational principle. We design a number of computational techniques, including the Dirichlet to Neumann mapping, the matched interface and boundary, and relaxation based iterative procedure, to ensure efficient solution of the proposed PBNP equations. Two protein molecules, cytochrome c551 and Gramicidin A, are employed to validate the proposed model under a wide range of bulk ion concentrations and external

  16. Planck intermediate results: XIII. Constraints on peculiar velocities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardoso, J.-F.; Delabrouille, J.; Ganga, K.

    2014-01-01

    Using Planck data combined with the Meta Catalogue of X-ray detected Clusters of galaxies (MCXC), we address the study of peculiar motions by searching for evidence of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (kSZ). By implementing various filters designed to extract the kSZ generated at the position...

  17. Stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker Planck equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Rami Reddy, G.; Srividya, A.; Verma, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation describes the time evolution of the probability density function of the velocity of a particle, and can be generalized to other observables as well. It is also known as the Kolmogorov forward equation (diffusion). Hence, for any process, which evolves with time, the probability density function as a function of time can be represented with Fokker-Planck equation. In stochastic reliability analysis one is more interested in finding out the reliability or failure probability of the components or structures as a function of time rather than instantaneous failure probabilities. In this analysis the variables are represented with random processes instead of random variables. A random processes can be either stationary or non stationary. If the random process is stationary then the failure probability doesn't change with time where as in the case of non stationary processes the failure probability changes with time. In the present paper Fokker Planck equations have been used to find out the probability density function of the non stationary random processes. In this paper a flow chart has been provided which describes step by step process for carrying out stochastic reliability analysis using Fokker-Planck equations. As a first step one has to identify the failure function as a function of random processes. Then one has to solve the Fokker-Planck equation for each random process. In this paper the Fokker-Planck equation has been solved by using Finite difference method. As a result one gets the probability density values of the random process in the sample space as well as time space. Later at each time step appropriate probability distribution has to be identified based on the available probability density values. For checking the better fitness of the data Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of fit test has been performed. In this way one can find out the distribution of the random process at each time step. Once one has the probability distribution

  18. Fokker-Planck and quasilinear codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karney, C.F.F.

    1985-11-01

    The interaction of radio-frequency waves with a plasma is described by a Fokker-Planck equation with an added quasilinear term. Methods for solving this equation on a computer are discussed. 40 refs., 12 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Planck Visualization Project: Seeing and Hearing the Cosmic Microwave Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Veen, J.

    2010-08-01

    The Planck Mission, launched May 14, 2009, will measure the sky over nine frequency channels, with temperature sensitivity of a few microKelvin, and angular resolution of up to 5 arc minutes. Planck is expected to provide the data needed to set tight constraints on cosmological parameters, study the ionization history of the Universe, probe the dynamics of the inflationary era, and test fundamental physics. The Planck Education and Public Outreach collaborators at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of California, Santa Barbara and Purdue University are preparing a variety of materials to present the science goals of the Planck Mission to the public. Two products currently under development are an interactive simulation of the mission which can be run in a virtual reality environment, and an interactive presentation on interpreting the power spectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background with music. In this paper we present a brief overview of CMB research and the Planck Mission, and discuss how to explain, to non-technical audiences, the theory of how we derive information about the early universe from the power spectrum of the CMB by using the physics of music.

  20. Planck intermediate results - LII. Planet flux densities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akrami, Y.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.

    2017-01-01

    Measurements of flux density are described for five planets, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, across the six Planck High Frequency Instrument frequency bands (100–857 GHz) and these are then compared with models and existing data. In our analysis, we have also included estimates...... of the brightness of Jupiter and Saturn at the three frequencies of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (30, 44, and 70 GHz). The results provide constraints on the intrinsic brightness and the brightness time-variability of these planets. The majority of the planet flux density estimates are limited by systematic...... errors, but still yield better than 1% measurements in many cases. Applying data from Planck HFI, the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) to a model that incorporates contributions from Saturn’s rings to the planet’s total flux density suggests a best...

  1. Technical note: New particle formation event forecasts during PEGASOS-Zeppelin Northern mission 2013 in Hyytiälä, Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieminen, T.; Yli-Juuti, T.; Manninen, H. E.; Petäjä, T.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Kulmala, M.

    2015-11-01

    New particle formation (NPF) occurs frequently in the global atmosphere. During recent years, detailed laboratory experiments combined with intensive field observations in different locations have provided insights into the vapours responsible for the initial formation of particles and their subsequent growth. In this regard, the importance of sulfuric acid, stabilizing bases such as ammonia and amines as well as extremely low volatile organics, have been proposed. The instrumentation to observe freshly formed aerosol particles has developed to a stage where the instruments can be implemented as part of airborne platforms, such as aircrafts or a Zeppelin-type airship. Flight measurements are technically more demanding and require a greater detail of planning than field studies at the ground level. The high cost of flight hours, limited time available during a single research flight for the measurements, and different instrument payloads in Zeppelin airship for various flight missions demanded an analysis tool that would forecast whether or not there is a good chance for an NPF event. Here we present a methodology to forecast NPF event probability at the SMEAR II site in Hyytiälä, Finland. This methodology was used to optimize flight hours during the PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas Aerosol Climate Interaction Study)-Zeppelin Northern mission in May-June 2013. Based on the existing knowledge, we derived a method for estimating the nucleation probability that utilizes forecast air mass trajectories, weather forecasts, and air quality model predictions. With the forecast tool we were able to predict the occurrence of NPF events for the next day with more than 90 % success rate (10 out of 11 NPF event days correctly predicted). To our knowledge, no similar forecasts of NPF occurrence have been developed for other sites. This method of forecasting NPF occurrence could be applied also at other locations, provided that long-term observations of conditions favouring particle

  2. Max Planck and modern physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffmann, Dieter

    2010-01-01

    Max Planck (1858-1947) is according to the words of Max von Laue the ''father of quantum physics''. This characteristic has until today continuance, although Planck stood for long time sceptically in front of his quantum hypothesis and so became a revolutionary in spite of his wishes. Eclipted by this pioneer role of the scholar for the foundation of the quantum theory are the numerous further works of the scholer, by which he has in many other fields provided eminent things. Starting with his fundamental contribution to thermodynamics, which make him to an excellent researcher of the field, until the works in the early history of relativity theory and the promotion of the young Einstein, which let him become also to a pioneer of the second central pillar of modern physics. The present collection attempts to show the whole spectrum of the physical works of Max Planck and his role in the formation of modern physics. [de

  3. Planck 2015 results: XVII. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    The Planck full mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and E-mode polarization maps are analysed to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). Using three classes of optimal bispectrum estimators – separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal – we obtain consiste...

  4. Planck 2015 results: XXI. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.

    2016-01-01

    Here, this paper presents a study of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect from the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data release. This secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy caused by the large-scale time-evolving gravitational potential is probed from different perspectives. The CMB is cross-correlated with different large-scale structure (LSS) tracers: radio sources from the NVSS catalogue; galaxies from the optical SDSS and the infrared WISE surveys; and the Planck 2015 convergence lensing map. The joint cross-correlation of the CMB with the tracers yields a detection at 4σ where most of the signal-to-noise is due to the Planck lensing and the NVSS radio catalogue. In fact, the ISW effect is detected from the Planck data only at ≈3σ (through the ISW-lensing bispectrum), which is similar to the detection level achieved by combining the cross-correlation signal coming from all the galaxy catalogues mentioned above. We study the ability of the ISW effect to place constraints on the dark-energy parameters; in particular, we show that Ω Λ is detected at more than 3σ. This cross-correlation analysis is performed only with the Planck temperature data, since the polarization scales available in the 2015 release do not permit significant improvement of the CMB-LSS cross-correlation detectability. Nevertheless, the Planck polarization data are used to study the anomalously large ISW signal previously reported through the aperture photometry on stacked CMB features at the locations of known superclusters and supervoids, which is in conflict with ΛCDM expectations. We find that the current Planck polarization data do not exclude that this signal could be caused by the ISW effect. In addition, the stacking of the Planck lensing map on the locations of superstructures exhibits a positive cross-correlation with these large-scale structures. Finally, we have improved our previous reconstruction of the ISW temperature fluctuations by combining

  5. Environment-based selection effects of Planck clusters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kosyra, R.; Gruen, D.; Seitz, S.; Mana, A.; Rozo, E.; Rykoff, E.; Sanchez, A.; Bender, R.

    2015-07-24

    We investigate whether the large-scale structure environment of galaxy clusters imprints a selection bias on Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) catalogues. Such a selection effect might be caused by line of sight (LoS) structures that add to the SZ signal or contain point sources that disturb the signal extraction in the SZ survey. We use the Planck PSZ1 union catalogue in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) region as our sample of SZ-selected clusters. We calculate the angular two-point correlation function (2pcf) for physically correlated, foreground and background structure in the RedMaPPer SDSS DR8 catalogue with respect to each cluster. We compare our results with an optically selected comparison cluster sample and with theoretical predictions. In contrast to the hypothesis of no environment-based selection, we find a mean 2pcf for background structures of -0.049 on scales of ≲40 arcmin, significantly non-zero at ~4σ, which means that Planck clusters are more likely to be detected in regions of low background density. We hypothesize this effect arises either from background estimation in the SZ survey or from radio sources in the background. We estimate the defect in SZ signal caused by this effect to be negligibly small, of the order of ~10-4 of the signal of a typical Planck detection. Analogously, there are no implications on X-ray mass measurements. However, the environmental dependence has important consequences for weak lensing follow up of Planck galaxy clusters: we predict that projection effects account for half of the mass contained within a 15 arcmin radius of Planck galaxy clusters. We did not detect a background underdensity of CMASS LRGs, which also leaves a spatially varying redshift dependence of the Planck SZ selection function as a possible cause for our findings.

  6. Boundary conditions and subelliptic estimates for geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries

    CERN Document Server

    Nier, Francis

    2018-01-01

    This article is concerned with the maximal accretive realizations of geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries. A general class of boundary conditions is introduced which ensures the maximal accretivity and some global subelliptic estimates. Those estimates imply nice spectral properties as well as exponential decay properties for the associated semigroup. Admissible boundary conditions cover a wide range of applications for the usual scalar Kramer-Fokker-Planck equation or Bismut's hypoelliptic laplacian.

  7. Planck intermediate results XXXVI. Optical identification and redshifts of Planck SZ sources with telescopes at the Canary Islands observatories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of approximately three years of observations of Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources with telescopes at the Canary Islands observatories as part of the general optical follow-up programme undertaken by the Planck Collaboration. In total, 78 SZ sources are discussed. Deep-i...

  8. Large-scale alignments from WMAP and Planck

    CERN Document Server

    Copi, Craig J.; Schwarz, Dominik J.; Starkman, Glenn D.

    2015-01-01

    We revisit the alignments of the largest structures observed in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using the seven and nine-year WMAP and first-year Planck data releases. The observed alignments -- the quadrupole with the octopole and their joint alignment with the direction of our motion with respect to the CMB (the dipole direction) and the geometry of the Solar System (defined by the Ecliptic plane) -- are generally in good agreement with results from the previous WMAP data releases. However, a closer look at full-sky data on the largest scales reveals discrepancies between the earlier WMAP data releases (three to seven-year) and the final nine-year release. There are also discrepancies between all the WMAP data releases and the first-year Planck release. Nevertheless, both the WMAP and Planck data confirm the alignments of the largest observable CMB modes in the Universe. In particular, the p-values for the mutual alignment between the quadrupole and octopole, and the alignment of the plane defined by ...

  9. Planck 2013 results. IX. HFI spectral response

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Armitage-Caplan, C; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Boulanger, F; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Challinor, A; Chamballu, A; Chary, R -R; Chen, X; Chiang, L -Y; Chiang, H C; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Clements, D L; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Combet, C; Comis, B; Couchot, F; Coulais, A; Crill, B P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Delouis, J -M; Désert, F -X; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Falgarone, E; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Hurier, G; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kisner, T S; Kneissl, R; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Leroy, C; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maffei, B; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; McGehee, P; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Miville-Deschênes, M -A; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Munshi, D; Murphy, J A; Naselsky, P; Nati, F; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; North, C; Noviello, F; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; Osborne, S; Oxborrow, C A; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Pajot, F; Paoletti, D; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Piacentini, F; Piat, M; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Renault, C; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Ristorcelli, I; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Roudier, G; Rusholme, B; Santos, D; Savini, G; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sudiwala, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    The Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) spectral response was determined through a series of ground based tests conducted with the HFI focal plane in a cryogenic environment prior to launch. The main goal of the spectral transmission tests was to measure the relative spectral response (including out-of-band signal rejection) of all HFI detectors. This was determined by measuring the output of a continuously scanned Fourier transform spectrometer coupled with all HFI detectors. As there is no on-board spectrometer within HFI, the ground-based spectral response experiments provide the definitive data set for the relative spectral calibration of the HFI. The spectral response of the HFI is used in Planck data analysis and component separation, this includes extraction of CO emission observed within Planck bands, dust emission, Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources, and intensity to polarization leakage. The HFI spectral response data have also been used to provide unit conversion and colour correction analysis tools. Ver...

  10. Max Karl Ernst Ludwig Planck (1858-1947

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available October 4th, 2007 marks the 60th anniversary of Planck’s death. Planck was not only the father of Quantum Theory. He was also a man of profound moral and ethical values, with far reaching philosophical views. Though he lived a life of public acclaim for his discovery of the Blackbody radiation formula which bares his name, his personal life was beset with tragedy. Yet, Planck never lost his deep faith and belief in a personal God. He was admired by Einstein, not so much for his contributions to physics, but rather, for the ideals which he embodied as a person. In this work, a brief synopsis is provided on Planck, his life, and his philosophical writings. It is hoped that this will serve as an invitation to revisit the philosophical works of the man who, more than any other, helped set the course of early 20th century physics.

  11. 100 years of Planck's quantum

    CERN Document Server

    Duck, Ian M

    2000-01-01

    This invaluable book takes the reader from Planck's discovery of the quantum in 1900 to the most recent interpretations and applications of nonrelativistic quantum mechanics.The introduction of the quantum idea leads off the prehistory of quantum mechanics, featuring Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Compton, and de Broglie's immortal contributions. Their original discovery papers are featured with explanatory notes and developments in Part 1.The invention of matrix mechanics and quantum mechanics by Heisenberg, Born, Jordan, Dirac, and Schrödinger is presented next, in Part 2.Following that, in Part 3,

  12. On the Connection between the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and the Fokker-Planck Control Frameworks

    KAUST Repository

    Annunziato, Mario

    2014-09-01

    In the framework of stochastic processes, the connection between the dynamic programming scheme given by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and a recently proposed control approach based on the Fokker-Planck equation is discussed. Under appropriate assumptions it is shown that the two strategies are equivalent in the case of expected cost functionals, while the FokkerPlanck formalism allows considering a larger class of objectives. To illustrate the connection between the two control strategies, the cases of an Itō stochastic process and of a piecewise-deterministic process are considered.

  13. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off.

  14. Planck 2013 results. I. Overview of products and scientific results

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartelmann, M.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bowyer, J.W.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cappellini, B.; Cardoso, J.F.; Carr, R.; Casale, M.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Finelli, F.; Foley, S.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Freschi, M.; Fromenteau, S.; Gaier, T.C.; Galeotta, S.; Gallegos, J.; Gandolfo, B.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Haissinski, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Kangaslahti, P.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Leroy, C.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lowe, S.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; McDonald, A.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Miniscalco, R.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; North, C.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, D.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Platania, P.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Salerno, E.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Smoot, G.F.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Taylor, D.; Terenzi, L.; Texier, D.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Tuttlebee, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vibert, L.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Watson, R.; Watson, C.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    The ESA's Planck satellite, dedicated to studying the early universe, was launched on May 2009 and has been surveying the microwave and submillimetre sky since August 2009. In March 2013, ESA and the Planck Collaboration publicly released the initial cosmology products based on the first 15.5 months of Planck operations, along with a set of scientific and technical papers and a web-based explanatory supplement. This paper describes the mission and its performance, and gives an overview of the processing and analysis of the data, the characteristics of the data, the main scientific results, and the science data products and papers in the release. Scientific results include robust support for the standard, six parameter LCDM model of cosmology and improved measurements for the parameters that define this model, including a highly significant deviation from scale invariance of the primordial power spectrum. The Planck values for some of these parameters and others derived from them are significantly different fr...

  15. Inflationary paradigm after Planck 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guth, Alan H., E-mail: guth@ctp.mit.edu [Center for Theoretical Physics, Laboratory for Nuclear Science, and Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Kaiser, David I., E-mail: dikaiser@mit.edu [Center for Theoretical Physics, Laboratory for Nuclear Science, and Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Nomura, Yasunori, E-mail: ynomura@berkeley.edu [Berkeley Center for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, and Theoretical Physics Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2014-06-02

    Models of cosmic inflation posit an early phase of accelerated expansion of the universe, driven by the dynamics of one or more scalar fields in curved spacetime. Though detailed assumptions about fields and couplings vary across models, inflation makes specific, quantitative predictions for several observable quantities, such as the flatness parameter (Ω{sub k}=1−Ω) and the spectral tilt of primordial curvature perturbations (n{sub s}−1=dlnP{sub R}/dlnk), among others—predictions that match the latest observations from the Planck satellite to very good precision. In the light of data from Planck as well as recent theoretical developments in the study of eternal inflation and the multiverse, we address recent criticisms of inflation by Ijjas, Steinhardt, and Loeb. We argue that their conclusions rest on several problematic assumptions, and we conclude that cosmic inflation is on a stronger footing than ever before.

  16. Inflationary paradigm after Planck 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guth, Alan H.; Kaiser, David I.; Nomura, Yasunori

    2014-01-01

    Models of cosmic inflation posit an early phase of accelerated expansion of the universe, driven by the dynamics of one or more scalar fields in curved spacetime. Though detailed assumptions about fields and couplings vary across models, inflation makes specific, quantitative predictions for several observable quantities, such as the flatness parameter (Ω k =1−Ω) and the spectral tilt of primordial curvature perturbations (n s −1=dlnP R /dlnk), among others—predictions that match the latest observations from the Planck satellite to very good precision. In the light of data from Planck as well as recent theoretical developments in the study of eternal inflation and the multiverse, we address recent criticisms of inflation by Ijjas, Steinhardt, and Loeb. We argue that their conclusions rest on several problematic assumptions, and we conclude that cosmic inflation is on a stronger footing than ever before.

  17. Planck 2013 results. XXV. Searches for cosmic strings and other topological defects

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Battye, R.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; McEwen, J.D.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rath, C.; Rebolo, R.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    Planck data have been used to provide stringent new constraints on cosmic strings and other defects. We describe forecasts of the CMB power spectrum induced by cosmic strings, calculating these from network models and simulations using line-of-sight Boltzmann solvers. We have studied Nambu-Goto cosmic strings, as well as field theory strings for which radiative effects are important, thus spanning the range of theoretical uncertainty in strings models. We have added the angular power spectrum from strings to that for a simple adiabatic model, with the extra fraction defined as $f_{10}$ at multipole $\\ell=10$. This parameter has been added to the standard six parameter fit using COSMOMC with flat priors. For the Nambu-Goto string model, we have obtained a constraint on the string tension of $G\\mu/c^2 < 1.5 x 10^{-7}$ and $f_{10} < 0.015$ at 95% confidence that can be improved to $G\\mu/c^2 < 1.3 x 10^{-7}$ and $f_{10} < 0.010$ on inclusion of high-$\\ell$ CMB data. For the abelian-Higgs field theory ...

  18. Multi-diffusive nonlinear Fokker–Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribeiro, Mauricio S; Casas, Gabriela A; Nobre, Fernando D

    2017-01-01

    Nonlinear Fokker–Planck equations, characterized by more than one diffusion term, have appeared recently in literature. Here, it is shown that these equations may be derived either from approximations in a master equation, or from a Langevin-type approach. An H-theorem is proven, relating these Fokker–Planck equations to an entropy composed by a sum of contributions, each of them associated with a given diffusion term. Moreover, the stationary state of the Fokker–Planck equation is shown to coincide with the equilibrium state, obtained by extremization of the entropy, in the sense that both procedures yield precisely the same equation. Due to the nonlinear character of this equation, the equilibrium probability may be obtained, in most cases, only by means of numerical approaches. Some examples are worked out, where the equilibrium probability distribution is computed for nonlinear Fokker–Planck equations presenting two diffusion terms, corresponding to an entropy characterized by a sum of two contributions. It is shown that the resulting equilibrium distribution, in general, presents a form that differs from a sum of the equilibrium distributions that maximizes each entropic contribution separately, although in some cases one may construct such a linear combination as a good approximation for the equilibrium distribution. (paper)

  19. Planck limits on non-canonical generalizations of large-field inflation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Nina K.; Kinney, William H., E-mail: ninastei@buffalo.edu, E-mail: whkinney@buffalo.edu [Dept. of Physics, University at Buffalo, the State University of New York, Buffalo, NY 14260-1500 (United States)

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we consider two case examples of Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) generalizations of canonical large-field inflation models, characterized by a reduced sound speed, c {sub S} < 1. The reduced speed of sound lowers the tensor-scalar ratio, improving the fit of the models to the data, but increases the equilateral-mode non-Gaussianity, f {sup equil.}{sub NL}, which the latest results from the Planck satellite constrain by a new upper bound. We examine constraints on these models in light of the most recent Planck and BICEP/Keck results, and find that they have a greatly decreased window of viability. The upper bound on f {sup equil.}{sub NL} corresponds to a lower bound on the sound speed and a corresponding lower bound on the tensor-scalar ratio of r ∼ 0.01, so that near-future Cosmic Microwave Background observations may be capable of ruling out entire classes of DBI inflation models. The result is, however, not universal: infrared-type DBI inflation models, where the speed of sound increases with time, are not subject to the bound.

  20. FAA aviation forecasts : fiscal years 1997-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-03-01

    This report contains the Fiscal Years 1997-2008 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) forecasts of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These include airports with both FAA and contract control towers, air route traffic control centers, and flight se...

  1. NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Dean; Ratvasky, Thomas; Bernstein, Ben; McDonough, Frank; Strapp, J. Walter

    1998-01-01

    During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

  2. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Chiang, L.-Y.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.-M.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T. C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R. J.; Lawrence, C. R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J. P.; Leonardi, R.; León-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Lindholm, V.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D. J.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I. J.; Orieux, F.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Paykari, P.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rahlin, A.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanselme, L.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Spencer, L. D.; Starck, J.-L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Türler, M.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; White, M.; White, S. D. M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the Planck 2013 likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations that accounts for all known relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. We use this likelihood to derive our best estimate of the CMB angular power spectrum from Planck over three decades in multipole moment, ℓ, covering 2 ≤ ℓ ≤ 2500. The main source of uncertainty at ℓ ≲ 1500 is cosmic variance. Uncertainties in small-scale foreground modelling and instrumental noise dominate the error budget at higher ℓs. For ℓ impact of residual foreground and instrumental uncertainties on the final cosmological parameters. We find good internal agreement among the high-ℓ cross-spectra with residuals below a few μK2 at ℓ ≲ 1000, in agreement with estimated calibration uncertainties. We compare our results with foreground-cleaned CMB maps derived from all Planck frequencies, as well as with cross-spectra derived from the 70 GHz Planck map, and find broad agreement in terms of spectrum residuals and cosmological parameters. We further show that the best-fit ΛCDM cosmology is in excellent agreement with preliminary PlanckEE and TE polarisation spectra. We find that the standard ΛCDM cosmology is well constrained by Planck from the measurements at ℓ ≲ 1500. One specific example is the spectral index of scalar perturbations, for which we report a 5.4σ deviation from scale invariance, ns = 1. Increasing the multipole range beyond ℓ ≃ 1500 does not increase our accuracy for the ΛCDM parameters, but instead allows us to study extensions beyond the standard model. We find no indication of significant departures from the ΛCDM framework. Finally, we report a tension between the Planck best-fit ΛCDM model and the low-ℓ spectrum in the form of a power deficit of 5-10% at ℓ ≲ 40, with a statistical significance of 2.5-3σ. Without a theoretically motivated model for

  3. Solving Fokker-Planck Equations on Cantor Sets Using Local Fractional Decomposition Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao-Hong Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The local fractional decomposition method is applied to approximate the solutions for Fokker-Planck equations on Cantor sets with local fractional derivative. The obtained results give the present method that is very effective and simple for solving the differential equations on Cantor set.

  4. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  5. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  6. Analyzing Planck and low redshift data sets with advanced statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eifler, Tim

    The recent ESA/NASA Planck mission has provided a key data set to constrain cosmology that is most sensitive to physics of the early Universe, such as inflation and primordial NonGaussianity (Planck 2015 results XIII). In combination with cosmological probes of the LargeScale Structure (LSS), the Planck data set is a powerful source of information to investigate late time phenomena (Planck 2015 results XIV), e.g. the accelerated expansion of the Universe, the impact of baryonic physics on the growth of structure, and the alignment of galaxies in their dark matter halos. It is the main objective of this proposal to re-analyze the archival Planck data, 1) with different, more recently developed statistical methods for cosmological parameter inference, and 2) to combine Planck and ground-based observations in an innovative way. We will make the corresponding analysis framework publicly available and believe that it will set a new standard for future CMB-LSS analyses. Advanced statistical methods, such as the Gibbs sampler (Jewell et al 2004, Wandelt et al 2004) have been critical in the analysis of Planck data. More recently, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC, see Weyant et al 2012, Akeret et al 2015, Ishida et al 2015, for cosmological applications) has matured to an interesting tool in cosmological likelihood analyses. It circumvents several assumptions that enter the standard Planck (and most LSS) likelihood analyses, most importantly, the assumption that the functional form of the likelihood of the CMB observables is a multivariate Gaussian. Beyond applying new statistical methods to Planck data in order to cross-check and validate existing constraints, we plan to combine Planck and DES data in a new and innovative way and run multi-probe likelihood analyses of CMB and LSS observables. The complexity of multiprobe likelihood analyses scale (non-linearly) with the level of correlations amongst the individual probes that are included. For the multi

  7. Planck satellite to be presented to media

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    Planck will make the most accurate maps yet of the microwave background radiation that fills space. It will be sensitive to temperature variations of a few millionths of a degree and will map the full sky in nine wavelengths. The immediate outcome of the Big Bang and the initial conditions for the evolution in the universe’s structure are the primary target of this important mission. From the results, a great deal more will be learnt not only about the nature and amount of dark matter, the ‘missing mass’ of the universe, but also about the nature of dark energy and the expansion of the universe itself. To address such challenging objectives, Planck will need to operate at very low, stable temperatures. Once in space, its detectors will have to be cooled to temperature levels close to absolute zero (-273.15ºC), ranging from -253ºC to only a few tenths of a degree above absolute zero. The Planck spacecraft thus has to be a marvel of cryotechnology. After integration, Planck will start a series of tests that will continue into early-2008. It will be launched by end-July 2008 in a dual-launch configuration with Herschel, ESA’s mission to study the formation of galaxies, stars and planetary systems in the infrared. Interested media are invited to fill in the reply form below. Note to editors The Planck spacecraft was built by AAS Cannes, the prime contractor, leading a consortium of industrial partners with the AAS industry branch in Turin, Italy, responsible for the satellite’s service module. ESA and the Danish National Space Centre (Copenhagen, Denmark) are responsible for the hardware provision of Planck’s telescope mirrors, manufactured by EADS Astrium (Friedrichshafen, Germany). AAS Cannes is also responsible for the payload module, the platform that hosts the telescope and the two onboard instruments, HFI and LFI. The instruments themselves are being supplied by a consortium of scientists and institutes led by the Institut d'Astrophysique Spatiale

  8. Similarity solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation with time-dependent coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, W.-T.; Ho, C.-L.

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we consider the solvability of the Fokker–Planck equation with both time-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients by means of the similarity method. By the introduction of the similarity variable, the Fokker–Planck equation is reduced to an ordinary differential equation. Adopting the natural requirement that the probability current density vanishes at the boundary, the resulting ordinary differential equation turns out to be integrable, and the probability density function can be given in closed form. New examples of exactly solvable Fokker–Planck equations are presented, and their properties analyzed. - Highlights: ► Scaling form of the Fokker–Planck equation with time-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients is derived. ► Exact similarity solution of the Fokker–Planck equation is given in closed forms. ► New examples of Fokker–Planck equations exactly solvable by similarity methods are discussed.

  9. Planck intermediate results: XLV. Radio spectra of northern extragalactic radio sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Aller, H. D.

    2016-01-01

    Continuum spectra covering centimetre to submillimetre wavelengths are presented for a northern sample of 104 extragalactic radio sources, mainly active galactic nuclei, based on four-epoch Planck data. The nine Planck frequencies, from 30 to 857 GHz, are complemented by a set of simultaneous gro...

  10. Isocurvature perturbations and tensor mode in light of Planck and BICEP2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawasaki, Masahiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8582 (Japan); Sekiguchi, Toyokazu [Helsinki Institute of Physics, University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, FIN-00014 (Finland); Takahashi, Tomo, E-mail: kawasaki@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, E-mail: toyokazu.sekiguchi@helsinki.fi, E-mail: tomot@cc.saga-u.ac.jp, E-mail: shu@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Saga University, Saga 840-8502 (Japan)

    2014-08-01

    We investigate the degeneracy of the isocurvature perturbations and the primordial gravitational waves, by using recent observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) reported by Planck and BICEP2 collaborations. We show that the tension in the bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r between Planck and BICEP2 can be resolved by introducing the anti-correlated isocurvature perturbations. Quantitatively, we find that with the anti-correlated isocurvature perturbations the constraints on r from Planck alone and BICEP2 results can be consistent at 68 % C.L.

  11. Planck Early Results: The thermal performance of Planck

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2011-01-01

    The performance of the Planck instruments in space is enabled by their low operating temperatures, 20K for LFI and 0.1K for HFI, achieved through a combination of passive radiative cooling and three active mechanical coolers. Active coolers were chosen to minimize straylight on the detectors...... and to maximize lifetime. The scientific requirement for very broad frequency led to two detector technologies with widely dierent temperature and cooling needs. This made use of a helium cryostat, as used by previous cryogenic space missions (IRAS, COBE, ISO, SPITZER, AKARI), infeasible. Radiative cooling...... is provided by three V-groove radiators and a large telescope bae. The active coolers are a hydrogen sorption cooler (cooled in space to operating conditions...

  12. An exact model for airline flight network optimization based on transport momentum and aircraft load factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Jorge Caetano

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of airline flight network optimization can be split into subproblems such as Schedule Generation (SG and Fleet Assignment (FA, solved in consecutive steps or in an integrated way, usually based on monetary costs and revenue forecasts. A linear pro­gramming model to solve SG and FA in an integrated way is presented, but with an al­ternative approach based on transport momentum and aircraft load factor. This alterna­tive approach relies on demand forecast and allows obtaining solutions considering min­imum average load factors. Results of the proposed model applications to instances of a regional Brazilian airline are presented. The comparison of the schedules generated by the proposed approach against those obtained by applying a model based on mone­tary costs and revenue forecasts demonstrates the validity of this alternative approach for airlines network planning.

  13. Planck-scale Lorentz violation constrained by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maccione, L. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Univ. Hamburg, II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik (Germany); Taylor, A.M. [Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany); Mattingly, D.M.; Liberati, S. [Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati SISSA, Trieste (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare INFN, Sezione di Trieste (Italy)

    2009-09-15

    We investigate the consequences of higher dimension Lorentz violating, CPT even kinetic operators that couple standard model fields to a non-zero vector field in an Effective Field Theory framework. Comparing the ultra-high energy cosmic ray spectrum reconstructed in the presence of such terms with data from the Pierre Auger observatory allows us to establish two sided bounds on the coefficients of the mass dimension five and six operators for the proton and pion. Our bounds imply that for both protons and pions, the energy scale of Lorentz symmetry breaking must be well above the Planck scale. In particular, the dimension five operators are constrained at the level of 10{sup -3}M{sup -1}{sub Planck}. The magnitude of the dimension six proton coefficient is bounded at the level of 10{sup -6}M{sup -2}{sub Planck} except in a narrow range where the pion and proton coefficients are both negative and nearly equal. In this small area, the magnitude of the dimension six proton coefficient must only be below 10{sup -3}M{sup -2}{sub Planck}. Constraints on the dimension six pion coefficient are found to be much weaker, but still below M{sup -2}{sub Planck}. (orig.)

  14. Vectorized Fokker-Planck package for the CRAY-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCoy, M.G.; Mirin, A.A.; Killeen, J.

    1979-08-01

    A program for the solution of the time-dependent, two dimensional, nonlinear, multi-species Fokker-Planck equation is described. The programming is written such that the loop structure is highly vectorizable on the CRAY FORTRAN Compiler. A brief discussion of the Fokker-Planck equation itself is followed by a description of the procedure developed to solve the equation efficiently. The Fokker-Planck equation is a second order partial differential equation whose coefficients depend upon moments of the distribution functions. Both the procedure for the calculation of these coefficients and the procedure for the time advancement of the equation itself must be done efficiently if significant overall time saving is to result. The coefficients are calculated in a series of nested loops, while time advancement is accomplished by a choice of either a splitting or an ADI technique. Overall, timing tests show that the vectorized CRAY program realizes up to a factor of 12 advantage over an optimized CDC-7600 program and up to a factor of 365 over a non-vectorized version of the same program on the CRAY

  15. Nonlinear Fokker-Planck Equations Fundamentals and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Frank, Till Daniel

    2005-01-01

    Providing an introduction to the theory of nonlinear Fokker-Planck equations, this book discusses fundamental properties of transient and stationary solutions, emphasizing the stability analysis of stationary solutions by means of self-consistency equations, linear stability analysis, and Lyapunov's direct method. Also treated are Langevin equations and correlation functions. Nonlinear Fokker-Planck Equations addresses various phenomena such as phase transitions, multistability of systems, synchronization, anomalous diffusion, cut-off solutions, travelling-wave solutions and the emergence of power law solutions. A nonlinear Fokker-Planck perspective to quantum statistics, generalized thermodynamics, and linear nonequilibrium thermodynamics is given. Theoretical concepts are illustrated where possible by simple examples. The book also reviews several applications in the fields of condensed matter physics, the physics of porous media and liquid crystals, accelerator physics, neurophysics, social sciences, popul...

  16. Planck 2013 results. XII. Component separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    Planck has produced detailed all-sky observations over nine frequency bands between 30 and 857 GHz. These observations allow robust reconstruction of the primordial cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature fluctuations over nearly the full sky, as well as new constraints on Galactic foregrou...

  17. Statistical measures of Planck scale signal correlations in interferometers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hogan, Craig J. [Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL), Batavia, IL (United States); Kwon, Ohkyung [Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2015-06-22

    A model-independent statistical framework is presented to interpret data from systems where the mean time derivative of positional cross correlation between world lines, a measure of spreading in a quantum geometrical wave function, is measured with a precision smaller than the Planck time. The framework provides a general way to constrain possible departures from perfect independence of classical world lines, associated with Planck scale bounds on positional information. A parametrized candidate set of possible correlation functions is shown to be consistent with the known causal structure of the classical geometry measured by an apparatus, and the holographic scaling of information suggested by gravity. Frequency-domain power spectra are derived that can be compared with interferometer data. As a result, simple projections of sensitivity for specific experimental set-ups suggests that measurements will directly yield constraints on a universal time derivative of the correlation function, and thereby confirm or rule out a class of Planck scale departures from classical geometry.

  18. Planck 2015 results: XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.

    2016-01-01

    We test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consi...

  19. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  20. Contribution to the study of the Fokker-planck equation; Contribution a l'etude de l'equation de Fokker-planck

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaquiere, A [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

    1963-07-01

    In the first paragraphs of this report, the Fokker-Planck equation is presented using the presentation method due to S. Chandrasekhar. Certain conventional resolution methods are given, and then a consideration of the physical interpretation of its various terms leads to a new study method based on the use of Campbell's theorems. This gives a solution to the equation in an integral form. The integral kernel of the solution is a normal centred distribution. Finally, the use of the Laplace transformation leads to a simple determination of the parameters of this integral kernel and connects the present theory to the characteristic function method used in particular in the field of nuclear reactors. The method also makes it possible to calculate the moments of the different orders of the probability distribution without the necessity of solving the Fokker-Planck equation. (author) [French] Dans les premiers paragraphes de ce rapport, l'equation de FOKKER-PLANCK est introduite en utilisant le mode d'expose de S. CHANDRASEKHAR. Puis, apres avoir rappele certaines methodes classiques de resolution, l'interpretation physique de ses differents termes nous conduit a une nouvelle methode d'etude qui repose sur l'utilisation des theoremes de CAMPBELL. On est ainsi conduit a la solution de l'equation sous forme integrale. Le noyau integral de la solution est une distribution normale centree. Enfin l'emploi de la transformation de LAPLACE conduit a une determination simple des parametres de ce noyau integral, et relie la theorie actuelle a la methode de la fonction caracteristique associee, utilisee en particulier dans le domaine des reacteurs nucleaires. Finalement cette methode permet le calcul des moments des differents ordres de la distribution de probabilites, sans passer par la resolution souvent laborieuse de l'equation de FOKKER-PLANCK. (auteur)

  1. Planck 2015 results. V. LFI calibration

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaglia, P.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Christensen, P.R.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Krachmalnicoff, N.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Peel, M.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renzi, A.; Rocha, G.; Romelli, E.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vassallo, T.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I.K.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    We present a description of the pipeline used to calibrate the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) timelines into thermodynamic temperatures for the Planck 2015 data release, covering 4 years of uninterrupted operations. As in the 2013 data release, our calibrator is provided by the spin-synchronous modulation of the CMB dipole, exploiting both the orbital and solar components. Our 2015 LFI analysis provides an independent Solar dipole estimate in excellent agreement with that of HFI and within $1\\sigma$ (0.3 % in amplitude) of the WMAP value. This 0.3 % shift in the peak-to-peak dipole temperature from WMAP and a global overhaul of the iterative calibration code increases the overall level of the LFI maps by 0.45 % (30 GHz), 0.64 % (44 GHz), and 0.82 % (70 GHz) in temperature with respect to the 2013 Planck data release, thus reducing the discrepancy with the power spectrum measured by WMAP. We estimate that the LFI calibration uncertainty is at the level of 0.20 % for the 70 GHz map, 0.26 % for the 44 GHz...

  2. Planck 2013 results. I. Overview of products and scientific results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    , and the science data products and papers in the release. Scientific results include robust support for the standard, six parameter LCDM model of cosmology and improved measurements for the parameters that define this model, including a highly significant deviation from scale invariance of the primordial power......The ESA's Planck satellite, dedicated to studying the early universe, was launched on May 2009 and has been surveying the microwave and submillimetre sky since August 2009. In March 2013, ESA and the Planck Collaboration publicly released the initial cosmology products based on the first 15.......5 months of Planck operations, along with a set of scientific and technical papers and a web-based explanatory supplement. This paper describes the mission and its performance, and gives an overview of the processing and analysis of the data, the characteristics of the data, the main scientific results...

  3. De Max-Planck medaille

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijmans, H.G.; van Woerkom, P.Th.L.M.; Ankersmit, W.; Hagman, R.; Heijmans, H.G.; Olsder, G.J.; van de Schootbrugge, G.

    2017-01-01

    De Max-Planck-Medaille is een onderscheiding die sinds 1929 jaarlijks wordt uitgereikt door de toentertijd grootste vereniging van natuurkundigen ter wereld: de Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft. Het is als het ware de Nobelprijs voor de theoretische natuurkunde, volgens de natuurkundigen zelf. In

  4. Planck 2015 results: XXVII. The second Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the all-sky Planck catalogue of Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) sources detected from the 29 month full-mission data. The catalogue (PSZ2) is the largest SZ-selected sample of galaxy clusters yet produced and the deepest systematic all-sky surveyof galaxy clusters. It contains 1653 detections, ...

  5. Planck 2013 results X. Energetic particle effects: characterization, removal, and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P A R; Armitage-Caplan, C; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Challinor, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, L -Y; Chiang, H C; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Clements, D L; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Couchot, F; Coulais, A; Crill, B P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Davies, R D; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Delouis, J -M; Désert, F -X; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Girard, D; Giraud-Héraud, Y; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kisner, T S; Kneissl, R; Knoche, J; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leonardi, R; Leroy, C; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Miniussi, A; Mitra, S; Miville-Deschênes, M -A; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Mottet, S; Munshi, D; Murphy, J A; Naselsky, P; Nati, F; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Noviello, F; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; Osborne, S; Oxborrow, C A; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Pajot, F; Paoletti, D; Patanchon, G; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Piacentini, F; Piat, M; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Racine, B; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Renault, C; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Ristorcelli, I; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Roudier, G; Rusholme, B; Sanselme, L; Santos, D; Savini, G; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sudiwala, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the detection, interpretation and removal of the signal resulting from interactions of high energy particles with the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI). These interactions fall into two categories, heating the 0.1 K bolometer plate and glitches in each detector time stream. Glitch shapes are not simple single pole exponential decays and fall into a three families. The glitch shape for each family has been characterized empirically in flight data and removed from the detector time streams. The spectrum of the count rate/unit energy is computed for each family and a correspondence to where on the detector the particle hit is made. Most of the detected glitches are from galactic protons incident on the Si die frame supporting the micromachined bolometric detectors. At HFI, the particle flux is ~ 5 per square cm and per second and is dominated by protons incident on the spacecraft with an energy >39 MeV, leading to a rate of typically one event per second and per detector. Different categ...

  6. Planck 2015 results: XIII. Cosmological parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    is constrained to w =-1.006 ± 0.045, consistent with the expected value for a cosmological constant. The standard big bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the best-fit Planck base ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. We also constraints...... of the theory; for example, combining Planck observations with other astrophysical data we find Neff = 3.15 ± 0.23 for the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom, consistent with the value Neff = 3.046 of the Standard Model of particle physics. The sum of neutrino masses is constrained to â'mν

  7. First Planck results and cosmological implications

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    The Planck satellite has measured CMB anisotropies over the full sky with unprecedented sensitivity. The collaboration has released its first CMB temperature maps and cosmological analysis on the 21st of March. I will present a summary of these new CMB results, focusing mainly on their implications for our understanding of the Universe.

  8. Planck 2013 results. V. LFI calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2014-01-01

    We discuss the methods employed to photometrically calibrate the data acquired by the Low Frequency Instrument on Planck. Our calibration is based on the Solar Dipole, caused by motion of the Solar System with respect to the CMB rest frame, which provides a signal of a few mK with the same spectr...

  9. Planck 2015 results: XXIII. The thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect-cosmic infrared background correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We use Planck data to detect the cross-correlation between the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect and the infrared emission from the galaxies that make up the the cosmic infrared background (CIB). We first perform a stacking analysis towards Planck-confirmed galaxy clusters. We detect infrared...... that infrared galaxies in the outskirts of clusters have higher infrared flux than cluster-core galaxies. We also study the cross-correlation between tSZ and CIB anisotropies, following three alternative approaches based on power spectrum analyses: (i) using a catalogue of confirmed clusters detected in Planck...... data; (ii) using an all-sky tSZ map built from Planck frequency maps; and (iii) using cross-spectra between Planck frequency maps. With the three different methods, we detect the tSZ-CIB cross-power spectrum at significance levels of (i) 6σ; (ii) 3σ; and (iii) 4σ. We model the tSZ-CIB cross-correlation...

  10. Planck 2015 results. XV. Gravitational lensing

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    We present the most significant measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential to date (at a level of 40 sigma), using temperature and polarization data from the Planck 2015 full-mission release. Using a polarization-only estimator we detect lensing at a significance of 5 sigma. We cross-check the accuracy of our measurement using the wide frequency coverage and complementarity of the temperature and polarization measurements. Public products based on this measurement include an estimate of the lensing potential over approximately 70% of the sky, an estimate of the lensing potential power spectrum in bandpowers for the multipole range 40on the Planck temperature and polarization power spectra. Using the lensing likelihood alone we obtain a percent-level measurement of ...

  11. On the analytical demonstration of Planck-Einstein relation

    OpenAIRE

    Molina Morales, Eddy Luis

    2016-01-01

    In this paper a possible analytical demonstration of Planck's Law for the spectral distribution of the electromagnetic energy radiated by hot bodies is presented, but in this case, the solutions of Maxwell's equations for the electromagnetic radiation problem of Hertz’s dipole are used. The concepts of quantum energy and of photon are redefined from the classical point of view, relating them to the possible electronic nature of electromagnetic waves and the electromagnetic field in general. B...

  12. The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: cross correlation with Planck maps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Louis, Thibaut; Calabrese, Erminia; Dunkley, Joanna; Næss, Sigurd [Department of Astrophysics, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Addison, Graeme E.; Hincks, Adam D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Hasselfield, Matthew; Hlozek, Renée [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Peyton Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Bond, J. Richard; Hajian, Amir [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Das, Sudeep [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Ave., Lemont, IL 60439 (United States); Devlin, Mark J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, U.S.A (United States); Dünner, Rolando; Infante, Leopoldo [Departamento de Astronomía y Astrofísica, Facultad de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 306, Santiago 22 (Chile); Gralla, Megan; Marriage, Tobias A. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD 21218-2686 (United States); Huffenberger, Kevin [Department of Physics, Florida State University, Keen Physics Building, 77 Chieftan Way, Tallahassee, Florida (United States); Kosowsky, Arthur [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260 (United States); Moodley, Kavilan [Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041 (South Africa); Niemack, Michael D., E-mail: Thibaut.Louis@astro.ox.ac.uk [Joseph Henry Laboratories of Physics, Jadwin Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); and others

    2014-07-01

    We present the temperature power spectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background obtained by cross-correlating maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) at 148 and 218 GHz with maps from the Planck satellite at 143 and 217 GHz, in two overlapping regions covering 592 square degrees. We find excellent agreement between the two datasets at both frequencies, quantified using the variance of the residuals between the ACT power spectra and the ACT × Planck cross-spectra. We use these cross-correlations to measure the calibration of the ACT data at 148 and 218 GHz relative to Planck, to 0.7% and 2% precision respectively. We find no evidence for anisotropy in the calibration parameter. We compare the Planck 353 GHz power spectrum with the measured amplitudes of dust and cosmic infrared background (CIB) of ACT data at 148 and 218 GHz. We also compare planet and point source measurements from the two experiments.

  13. Numerical method for the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, D.S.; Wei, G.W.; Kouri, D.J.; Hoffman, D.K.

    1997-01-01

    A practical method based on distributed approximating functionals (DAFs) is proposed for numerically solving a general class of nonlinear time-dependent Fokker-Planck equations. The method relies on a numerical scheme that couples the usual path-integral concept to the DAF idea. The high accuracy and reliability of the method are illustrated by applying it to an exactly solvable nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation, and the method is compared with the accurate K-point Stirling interpolation formula finite-difference method. The approach is also used successfully to solve a nonlinear self-consistent dynamic mean-field problem for which both the cumulant expansion and scaling theory have been found by Drozdov and Morillo [Phys. Rev. E 54, 931 (1996)] to be inadequate to describe the occurrence of a long-lived transient bimodality. The standard interpretation of the transient bimodality in terms of the flat region in the kinetic potential fails for the present case. An alternative analysis based on the effective potential of the Schroedinger-like Fokker-Planck equation is suggested. Our analysis of the transient bimodality is strongly supported by two examples that are numerically much more challenging than other examples that have been previously reported for this problem. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  14. Planck 2013 results. V. LFI calibration

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bonavera, L; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cappellini, B; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Chamballu, A; Chen, X; Chiang, L -Y; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Crill, B P; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Gaier, T C; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giardino, G; Giraud-Héraud, Y; Gjerløw, E; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Kangaslahti, P; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kisner, T S; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leach, S; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Paladini, R; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, D; Peel, M; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Rossetti, M; Roudier, G; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Watson, R; Wilkinson, A; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    We discuss the methods employed to photometrically calibrate the data acquired by the Low Frequency Instrument on Planck. Our calibration is based on a combination of the Orbital Dipole plus the Solar Dipole, caused respectively by the motion of the Planck spacecraft with respect to the Sun and by motion of the Solar System with respect to the CMB rest frame. The latter provides a signal of a few mK with the same spectrum as the CMB anisotropies and is visible throughout the mission. In this data release we rely on the characterization of the Solar Dipole as measured by WMAP. We also present preliminary results (at 44GHz only) on the study of the Orbital Dipole, which agree with the WMAP value of the Solar System speed within our uncertainties. We compute the calibration constant for each radiometer roughly once per hour, in order to keep track of changes in the detectors' gain. Since non-idealities in the optical response of the beams proved to be important, we implemented a fast convolution algorithm which ...

  15. Global drought outlook by means of seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziese, Markus; Fröhlich, Kristina; Rustemeier, Elke; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Droughts are naturally occurring phenomena which are caused by a shortage of available water due to lower than normal precipitation and/or above normal evaporation. Depending on the length of the droughts, several sectors are affected starting with agriculture, then river and ground water levels and finally socio-economic losses at the long end of the spectrum of drought persistence. Droughts are extreme events that affect much larger areas and last much longer than floods, but are less geared towards media than floods being more short-scale in persistence and impacts. Finally the slow onset of droughts make the detection and early warning of their beginning difficult and time is lost for preparatory measures. Drought indices are developed to detect and classify droughts based on (meteorological) observations and possible additional information tailored to specific user needs, e.g. in agriculture, hydrology and other sectors. Not all drought indices can be utilized for global applications as not all input parameters are available at this scale. Therefore the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) developed a drought index as combination of the Standardized Drought Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the GPCC-DI. The GPCC-DI is applied to drought monitoring and retrospective analyses on a global scale. As the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a seasonal forecast system in cooperation with Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg and University of Hamburg, these data are also used for an outlook of drought conditions by means of the GPCC-DI. The reliability of seasonal precipitation forecasts is limited, so the drought outlook is available only for forecast months two to four. Based on the GPCC-DI, DWD provides a retrospective analysis, near-real-time monitoring and outlook of drought conditions on a global scale and regular basis.

  16. Stages in Educational Reform; The Max Planck Institute Has Produced a Report on Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeffer, Gottfried

    1981-01-01

    Outlines the Max Planck Institute's exhaustive report on West German educational trends since World War II. An analysis of the effects of changing social values and demographic factors on educational policy, school organization, enrollment trends, curriculum design, and teaching methods is included. (AM)

  17. Astrochemical Properties of Planck Cold Clumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatematsu, Ken’ichi; Sanhueza, Patricio; Nguyễn Lu’o’ng, Quang; Hirota, Tomoya [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, National Institutes of Natural Sciences, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Liu, Tie; Choi, Minho; Kang, Miju; Kim, Kee-Tae [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daedeokdaero 776, Yuseong, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Ohashi, Satoshi [Department of Astronomy, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Liu, Sheng-Yuan; Hirano, Naomi [Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 11F of Astronomy-Mathematics Building, AS/NTU. No.1, Section 4, Roosevelt Rd, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Thompson, Mark A. [Centre for Astrophysics Research, Science and Technology Research Institute, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, AL10 9AB (United Kingdom); Fuller, Gary [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Wu, Yuefang [Department of Astronomy, Peking University, 100871, Beijing (China); Li, Di [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China); Francesco, James Di [NRC Herzberg Astronomy and Astrophysics, 5071 West Saanich Road, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Wang, Ke [European Southern Observatory (Germany); Ristorcelli, Isabelle [IRAP, CNRS (UMR5277), Universite Paul Sabatier, 9 avenue du Colonel Roche, BP 44346, F-31028, Toulouse Cedex 4 (France); Juvela, Mika [Department of physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki (Finland); Shinnaga, Hiroko, E-mail: k.tatematsu@nao.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Kagoshima University, 1-21-35, Korimoto, Kagoshima, 890-0065 (Japan); Collaboration: JCMT Large Program “SCOPE” collaboration; TRAO Key Science Program “TOP” collaboration; and others

    2017-02-01

    We observed 13 Planck cold clumps with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope/SCUBA-2 and with the Nobeyama 45 m radio telescope. The N{sub 2}H{sup +} distribution obtained with the Nobeyama telescope is quite similar to SCUBA-2 dust distribution. The 82 GHz HC{sub 3}N, 82 GHz CCS, and 94 GHz CCS emission are often distributed differently with respect to the N{sub 2}H{sup +} emission. The CCS emission, which is known to be abundant in starless molecular cloud cores, is often very clumpy in the observed targets. We made deep single-pointing observations in DNC, HN{sup 13}C, N{sub 2}D{sup +}, and cyclic-C{sub 3}H{sub 2} toward nine clumps. The detection rate of N{sub 2}D{sup +} is 50%. Furthermore, we observed the NH{sub 3} emission toward 15 Planck cold clumps to estimate the kinetic temperature, and confirmed that most targets are cold (≲20 K). In two of the starless clumps we observed, the CCS emission is distributed as it surrounds the N{sub 2}H{sup +} core (chemically evolved gas), which resembles the case of L1544, a prestellar core showing collapse. In addition, we detected both DNC and N{sub 2}D{sup +}. These two clumps are most likely on the verge of star formation. We introduce the chemical evolution factor (CEF) for starless cores to describe the chemical evolutionary stage, and analyze the observed Planck cold clumps.

  18. Fokker-Planck equation resolution for N variables-Application examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz Roldan, A.; Garcia-Olivares, A.

    1994-01-01

    A set of problems which are reducible to Fokker-Planck equations are presented. Those problems have been solved by using the CHAPKOL library. This library of programs solves stochastic ''Fokker-Planck'' equations in one or several dimensions by using the Chapman-Kolmogorov integral. This method calculates the probability distribution at a time t+dt from a distribution given at time t through a convolution integral in which the integrant is the product of the distribution function at time t and the Green function of the Fokker-Planck equation. The method have some numerical advantages when compared with finite differences algorithms. The accuracy of the method is analysed in several specific cases

  19. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  20. Excess B-modes extracted from the Planck polarization maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.

    2016-06-01

    One of the main obstacles for extracting the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) from mm/submm observations is the pollution from the main Galactic components: synchrotron, free-free and thermal dust emission. The feasibility of using simple neural networks to extract CMB has been demonstrated on both temperature and polarization data obtained by the WMAP satellite. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of neural networks for extracting the CMB signal from the Planck polarization data with high precision. Both auto-correlation and cross-correlation power spectra within a mask covering about 63 % of the sky have been used together with a ``high pass filter'' in order to minimize the influence of the remaining systematic errors in the Planck Q and U maps. Using the Planck 2015 released polarization maps, a BB power spectrum have been extracted by Multilayer Perceptron neural networks. This spectrum contains a bright feature with signal to noise ratios ≃ 4.5 within 200 ≤ l ≤ 250. The spectrum is significantly brighter than the BICEP2 2015 spectrum, with a spectral behaviour quite different from the ``canonical'' models (weak lensing plus B-modes spectra with different tensor to scalar ratios). The feasibility of the neural network to remove the residual systematics from the available Planck polarization data to a high level has been demonstrated.

  1. Comments on microscopic mechanics, generalizations of classical mechanics and Planck's oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yussouff, M.

    1983-05-01

    The new microscopic mechanics removes the dichotomy of physics into classical and quantum phenomena. Its physical picture and connections with generalizations of classical mechanics are discussed. It gives a new meaning to Bohr's frequency relation and Planck's oscillators. (author)

  2. Consistency of the Planck CMB data and ΛCDM cosmology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafieloo, Arman [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon, 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar, E-mail: shafieloo@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: dhiraj.kumar.hazra@apc.univ-paris7.fr [AstroParticule et Cosmologie (APC)/Paris Centre for Cosmological Physics, Université Paris Diderot, CNRS/IN2P3, CEA/lrfu, Observatoire de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 10, rue Alice Domon et Leonie Duquet, Paris Cedex 13, 75205 France (France)

    2017-04-01

    We test the consistency between Planck temperature and polarization power spectra and the concordance model of Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology (ΛCDM) within the framework of Crossing statistics. We find that Planck TT best fit ΛCDM power spectrum is completely consistent with EE power spectrum data while EE best fit ΛCDM power spectrum is not consistent with TT data. However, this does not point to any systematic or model-data discrepancy since in the Planck EE data, uncertainties are much larger compared to the TT data. We also investigate the possibility of any deviation from ΛCDM model analyzing the Planck 2015 data. Results from TT, TE and EE data analysis indicate that no deviation is required beyond the flexibility of the concordance ΛCDM model. Our analysis thus rules out any strong evidence for beyond the concordance model in the Planck spectra data. We also report a mild amplitude difference comparing temperature and polarization data, where temperature data seems to have slightly lower amplitude than expected (consistently at all multiples), as we assume both temperature and polarization data are realizations of the same underlying cosmology.

  3. Joint Analysis of BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Ahmed, Z.

    2015-01-01

    We report the results of a joint analysis of data from BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck. BICEP2 and Keck Array have observed the same approximately 400 deg2 patch of sky centered on RA 0 h, Dec. -57.5°. The combined maps reach a depth of 57 nK deg in Stokes Q and U in a band centered at 150 GHz. Planck...... GHz to a lensed-ΛCDM model that includes dust and a possible contribution from inflationary gravitational waves (as parametrized by the tensor-to-scalar ratio r), using a prior on the frequency spectral behavior of polarized dust emission from previous Planck analysis of other regions of the sky. We...... present an alternative analysis which is similar to a map-based cleaning of the dust contribution, and show that this gives similar constraints. The final result is expressed as a likelihood curve for r, and yields an upper limit r 0.05

  4. Planck 2015 results. XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Akrami, Y.; Aluri, P.K.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Casaponsa, B.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fantaye, Y.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Liu, H.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Pant, N.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rotti, A.; Roudier, G.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J.P.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    We test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect our studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The "Cold S...

  5. Planck intermediate results XXXI. Microwave survey of Galactic supernova remnants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.

    2016-01-01

    The all-sky Planck survey in 9 frequency bands was used to search for emission from all 274 known Galactic supernova remnants. Of these, 16 were detected in at least two Planck frequencies. The radio-through-microwave spectral energy distributions were compiled to determine the mechanism for micr......The all-sky Planck survey in 9 frequency bands was used to search for emission from all 274 known Galactic supernova remnants. Of these, 16 were detected in at least two Planck frequencies. The radio-through-microwave spectral energy distributions were compiled to determine the mechanism...... for microwave emission. In only one case, IC 443, is there high-frequency emission clearly from dust associated with the supernova remnant. In all cases, the low-frequency emission is from synchrotron radiation. As predicted for a population of relativistic particles with energy distribution that extends...

  6. Darboux transformations for (1+2)-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations with constant diffusion matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulze-Halberg, Axel

    2012-01-01

    We construct a Darboux transformation for (1+2)-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations with constant diffusion matrix. Our transformation is based on the two-dimensional supersymmetry formalism for the Schrödinger equation. The transformed Fokker-Planck equation and its solutions are obtained in explicit form.

  7. Herschel-ATLAS : Planck sources in the phase 1 fields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herranz, D.; González-Nuevo, J.; Clements, D.; De, Zotti G.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lapi, A.; Rodighiero, G.; Danese, L.; Fu, H.; Cooray, A.; Baes, M.; Bendo, G.; Bonavera, L.; Carrera, F.; Dole, H.; Eales, S.; Ivison, R.; Jarvis, M.; Lagache, G.; Massardi, M.; Michalowski, M.; Negrello, M.; Rigby, E.E.; Scott, D.; Valiante, E.; Valtchanov, I.; Werf, van der P.P.; Auld, R.; Buttiglione, S.; Dariush, A.; Dunne, L.; Hopwood, R.; Hoyos, C.; Ibar, E.; Maddox, S.

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of a cross-correlation of the Planck Early Release Compact Source catalogue (ERCSC) with the catalogue of Herschel-ATLAS sources detected in the phase 1 fields, covering 134.55{deg}$^{2}$. There are 28 ERCSC sources detected by Planck at 857 GHz in this area. As many as 16 of

  8. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  9. A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

    2017-10-01

    A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

  10. Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid forecasting architecture and an improved bat algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Liye; Qian, Feng; Shao, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Propose a hybrid architecture based on a modified bat algorithm for multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Improve the accuracy of multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Modify bat algorithm with CG to improve optimized performance. - Abstract: As one of the most promising sustainable energy sources, wind energy plays an important role in energy development because of its cleanliness without causing pollution. Generally, wind speed forecasting, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is regarded as a challenging task. Analyses based on single-step wind speed forecasting have been widely used, but their results are insufficient in ensuring the reliability and controllability of wind power systems. In this paper, a new forecasting architecture based on decomposing algorithms and modified neural networks is successfully developed for multi-step wind speed forecasting. Four different hybrid models are contained in this architecture, and to further improve the forecasting performance, a modified bat algorithm (BA) with the conjugate gradient (CG) method is developed to optimize the initial weights between layers and thresholds of the hidden layer of neural networks. To investigate the forecasting abilities of the four models, the wind speed data collected from four different wind power stations in Penglai, China, were used as a case study. The numerical experiments showed that the hybrid model including the singular spectrum analysis and general regression neural network with CG-BA (SSA-CG-BA-GRNN) achieved the most accurate forecasting results in one-step to three-step wind speed forecasting.

  11. International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Poggi, Jean-Michel; Brossat, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for FORecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in in...

  12. Planck 2015 results. I. Overview of products and scientific results

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Alves, M.I.R.; Arnaud, M.; Arroja, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Ballardini, M.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaglia, P.; Battaner, E.; Battye, R.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bertincourt, B.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Carvalho, P.; Casaponsa, B.; Castex, G.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chiang, H.C.; Chluba, J.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clemens, M.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Comis, B.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Di Valentino, E.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Eisenhardt, P.R.M.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fantaye, Y.; Farhang, M.; Feeney, S.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Feroz, F.; Finelli, F.; Florido, E.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschet, C.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Genova-Santos, R.T.; Gerbino, M.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Giusarma, E.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Grainge, K.J.B.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Handley, W.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Heavens, A.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Ilic, S.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jin, T.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Karakci, A.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Krachmalnicoff, N.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lacasa, F.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Langer, M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leahy, J.P.; Lellouch, E.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lindholm, V.; Liu, H.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Ma, Y.Z.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Mak, D.S.Y.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marchini, A.; Marcos-Caballero, A.; Marinucci, D.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McEwen, J.D.; McGehee, P.; Mei, S.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Moreno, R.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Mottet, S.; Muenchmeyer, M.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Narimani, A.; Naselsky, P.; Nastasi, A.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Negrello, M.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Olamaie, M.; Oppermann, N.; Orlando, E.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Pandolfi, S.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Peel, M.; Peiris, H.V.; Pelkonen, V.M.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrott, Y.C.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pogosyan, D.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Racine, B.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Roman, M.; Romelli, E.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rotti, A.; Roudier, G.; d'Orfeuil, B.Rouille; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Ruiz-Granados, B.; Rumsey, C.; Rusholme, B.; Said, N.; Salvatelli, V.; Salvati, L.; Sandri, M.; Sanghera, H.S.; Santos, D.; Saunders, R.D.E.; Sauve, A.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Schaefer, B.M.; Schammel, M.P.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Serra, P.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Shimwell, T.W.; Shiraishi, M.; Smith, K.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, L.D.; Spinelli, M.; Stanford, S.A.; Stern, D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Strong, A.W.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutter, P.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Texier, D.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tornikoski, M.; Tristram, M.; Troja, A.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vassallo, T.; Vidal, M.; Viel, M.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Walter, B.; Wandelt, B.D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I.K.; Welikala, N.; Weller, J.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J.P.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    The European Space Agency's Planck satellite, dedicated to studying the early Universe and its subsequent evolution, was launched 14~May 2009 and scanned the microwave and submillimetre sky continuously between 12~August 2009 and 23~October 2013. In February~2015, ESA and the Planck Collaboration released the second set of cosmology products based on data from the entire Planck mission, including both temperature and polarization, along with a set of scientific and technical papers and a web-based explanatory supplement. This paper gives an overview of the main characteristics of the data and the data products in the release, as well as the associated cosmological and astrophysical science results and papers. The science products include maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect, and diffuse foregrounds in temperature and polarization, catalogues of compact Galactic and extragalactic sources (including separate catalogues of Sunyaev-Zeldovich clusters and Galactic col...

  13. Cross-correlation of gravitational lensing from DES Science Verification data with SPT and Planck lensing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirk, D.; Omori, Y.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Cawthon, R.; Chang, C.; Larsen, P.; Amara, A.; Bacon, D.; Crawford, T. M.; Dodelson, S.; Fosalba, P.; Giannantonio, T.; Holder, G.; Jain, B.; Kacprzak, T.; Lahav, O.; MacCrann, N.; Nicola, A.; Refregier, A.; Sheldon, E.; Story, K. T.; Troxel, M. A.; Vieira, J. D.; Vikram, V.; Zuntz, J.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Becker, M. R.; Benson, B. A.; Bernstein, G. M.; Bernstein, R. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Bonnett, C.; Bridle, S. L.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Burke, D. L.; Capozzi, D.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Rosell, A. Carnero; Kind, M. Carrasco; Carretero, J.; Crocce, M.; Cunha, C. E.; D' Andrea, C. B.; da Costa, L. N.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Dietrich, J. P.; Doel, P.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Flaugher, B.; Frieman, J.; Gerdes, D. W.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Jarvis, M.; Kent, S.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lima, M.; March, M.; Martini, P.; Melchior, P.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nichol, R. C.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Reichardt, C. L.; Roodman, A.; Rozo, E.; Rykoff, E. S.; Sako, M.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Simard, G.; Smith, R. C.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, D.; Wechsler, R. H.; Weller, J.

    2016-03-10

    We measure the cross-correlation between weak lensing of galaxy images and of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The effects of gravitational lensing on different sources will be correlated if the lensing is caused by the same mass fluctuations. We use galaxy shape measurements from 139 deg$^{2}$ of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification data and overlapping CMB lensing from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck. The DES source galaxies have a median redshift of $z_{\\rm med} {\\sim} 0.7$, while the CMB lensing kernel is broad and peaks at $z{\\sim}2$. The resulting cross-correlation is maximally sensitive to mass fluctuations at $z{\\sim}0.44$. Assuming the Planck 2015 best-fit cosmology, the amplitude of the DES$\\times$SPT cross-power is found to be $A = 0.88 \\pm 0.30$ and that from DES$\\times$Planck to be $A = 0.86 \\pm 0.39$, where $A=1$ corresponds to the theoretical prediction. These are consistent with the expected signal and correspond to significances of $2.9 \\sigma$ and $2.2 \\sigma$ respectively. We demonstrate that our results are robust to a number of important systematic effects including the shear measurement method, estimator choice, photometric redshift uncertainty and CMB lensing systematics. Significant intrinsic alignment of galaxy shapes would increase the cross-correlation signal inferred from the data; we calculate a value of $A = 1.08 \\pm 0.36$ for DES$\\times$SPT when we correct the observations with a simple IA model. With three measurements of this cross-correlation now existing in the literature, there is not yet reliable evidence for any deviation from the expected LCDM level of cross-correlation, given the size of the statistical uncertainties and the significant impact of systematic errors, particularly IAs. We provide forecasts for the expected signal-to-noise of the combination of the five-year DES survey and SPT-3G.

  14. Planck early results. V. The Low Frequency Instrument data processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Lähteenmäki, A.; León-Tavares, J.

    2011-01-01

    We describe the processing of data from the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) used in production of the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC). In particular, we discuss the steps involved in reducing the data from telemetry packets to cleaned, calibrated, time-ordered data (TOD) and ...... statistical uncertainties on LFI and Planck products are also produced. Main beams are estimated down to the ≈ -10dB level using Jupiter transits, which are also used for geometrical calibration of the focal plane. © ESO, 2011....

  15. Derivation of a Fokker-Planck equation for bunched beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruggiero, A.G.

    1993-01-01

    This report investigates the derivation of the Fokker-Planck equation which is commonly used to evaluate the evolution with time of an ensemble of particles under the effect of external rf forces, cooling and forces of stochastic nature like intrabeam scattering. The conventional approach based on the classical work by Chandrasekhar is first exposed, where the phase delay and the momentum error of the particle are used. The method is then extended to the case the distribution function is expressed in terms of the amplitude of motion instead of the original rectilinear variables. The new Fokker-Planck equation is obtained with an averaging process over the phase distribution instead of the time-averaging as it was usually performed earlier, to avoid the appearance of a singularity behavior. The solution of the Fokker-Planck equation is chosen in the proper form which makes easier the evaluation of the beam lifetime in the presence of the separatrix of the rf buckets. Finally the numerical applications apply the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC)

  16. Isotropy analyses of the Planck convergence map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, G. A.; Novaes, C. P.; Bernui, A.; Ferreira, I. S.

    2018-01-01

    The presence of matter in the path of relic photons causes distortions in the angular pattern of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature fluctuations, modifying their properties in a slight but measurable way. Recently, the Planck Collaboration released the estimated convergence map, an integrated measure of the large-scale matter distribution that produced the weak gravitational lensing (WL) phenomenon observed in Planck CMB data. We perform exhaustive analyses of this convergence map calculating the variance in small and large regions of the sky, but excluding the area masked due to Galactic contaminations, and compare them with the features expected in the set of simulated convergence maps, also released by the Planck Collaboration. Our goal is to search for sky directions or regions where the WL imprints anomalous signatures to the variance estimator revealed through a χ2 analyses at a statistically significant level. In the local analysis of the Planck convergence map, we identified eight patches of the sky in disagreement, in more than 2σ, with what is observed in the average of the simulations. In contrast, in the large regions analysis we found no statistically significant discrepancies, but, interestingly, the regions with the highest χ2 values are surrounding the ecliptic poles. Thus, our results show a good agreement with the features expected by the Λ cold dark matter concordance model, as given by the simulations. Yet, the outliers regions found here could suggest that the data still contain residual contamination, like noise, due to over- or underestimation of systematic effects in the simulation data set.

  17. Planck 2013 results. II. The Low Frequency Instrument data processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the data processing pipeline of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data processing centre (DPC) to create and characterize full-sky maps based on the first 15.5 months of operations at 30, 44, and 70 GHz. In particular, we discuss the various steps involved in reducing the data......) is employed to combine radiometric data and pointing information into sky maps, minimizing the variance of correlated noise. Noise covariance matrices, required to compute statistical uncertainties on LFI and Planck products, are also produced. Main beams are estimated down to the approximate to-20 dB level...

  18. Brans-Dicke inflation in light of the Planck 2015 data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahmasebzadeh, B.; Rezazadeh, K.; Karami, K.

    2016-01-01

    We study inflation in the Brans-Dicke gravity as a special model of the scalar-tensor gravity. We obtain the inflationary observables containing the scalar spectral index, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, the running of the scalar spectral index and the equilateral non-Gaussianity parameter in terms of the general form of the potential in the Jordan frame. Then, we compare the results for various inflationary potentials in light of the Planck 2015 data. Our study shows that in the Brans-Dicke gravity, the power-law, inverse power-law and exponential potentials are ruled out by the Planck 2015 data. But, the hilltop, Higgs, Coleman-Weinberg and natural potentials can be compatible with Planck 2015 TT,TE,EE+lowP data at 95% CL. Moreover, the D-brane, SB SUSY and displaced quadratic potentials can be in well agreement with the observational data since their results can lie inside the 68% CL region of Planck 2015 TT,TE,EE+lowP data.

  19. Brans-Dicke inflation in light of the Planck 2015 data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahmasebzadeh, B. [Department of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), P.O. Box 45195-1159, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Rezazadeh, K.; Karami, K., E-mail: b.tahmasebzadeh@iasbs.ac.ir, E-mail: rezazadeh86@gmail.com, E-mail: kkarami@uok.ac.ir [Department of Physics, University of Kurdistan, Pasdaran St., P.O. Box 66177-15175, Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-07-01

    We study inflation in the Brans-Dicke gravity as a special model of the scalar-tensor gravity. We obtain the inflationary observables containing the scalar spectral index, the tensor-to-scalar ratio, the running of the scalar spectral index and the equilateral non-Gaussianity parameter in terms of the general form of the potential in the Jordan frame. Then, we compare the results for various inflationary potentials in light of the Planck 2015 data. Our study shows that in the Brans-Dicke gravity, the power-law, inverse power-law and exponential potentials are ruled out by the Planck 2015 data. But, the hilltop, Higgs, Coleman-Weinberg and natural potentials can be compatible with Planck 2015 TT,TE,EE+lowP data at 95% CL. Moreover, the D-brane, SB SUSY and displaced quadratic potentials can be in well agreement with the observational data since their results can lie inside the 68% CL region of Planck 2015 TT,TE,EE+lowP data.

  20. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max. J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Over the past two years, scientists in the Earth Science Office at NASA fs Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have explored opportunities to apply cloud computing concepts to support near real ]time weather forecast modeling via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Collaborators at NASA fs Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the SERVIR project at Marshall Space Flight Center have established a framework that provides high resolution, daily weather forecasts over Mesoamerica through use of the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform at Ames Research Center. Supported by experts at Ames, staff at SPoRT and SERVIR have established daily forecasts complete with web graphics and a user interface that allows SERVIR partners access to high resolution depictions of weather in the next 48 hours, useful for monitoring and mitigating meteorological hazards such as thunderstorms, heavy precipitation, and tropical weather that can lead to other disasters such as flooding and landslides. This presentation will describe the framework for establishing and providing WRF forecasts, example applications of output provided via the SERVIR web portal, and early results of forecast model verification against available surface ] and satellite ]based observations.

  1. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  2. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Martin

    2012-07-01

    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  3. Negative running of the spectral index, hemispherical asymmetry and the consistency of Planck with large r

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, John

    2014-01-01

    Planck favours a negative running of the spectral index, with the likelihood being dominated by low multipoles l ∼< 50 and no preference for running at higher l. A negative spectral index is also necessary for the 2- Planck upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r to be consistent with values significantly larger than 0.1. Planck has also observed a hemispherical asymmetry of the CMB power spectrum, again mostly at low multipoles. Here we consider whether the physics responsible for the hemispherical asymmetry could also account for the negative running of the spectral index and the consistency of Planck with a large value of r. A negative running of the spectral index can be generated if the hemispherical asymmetry is due to a scale- and space-dependent modulation which suppresses the CMB power spectrum at low multipoles. We show that the observed hemispherical asymmetry at low l can be generated while satisfying constraints on the asymmetry at higher l and generating a negative spectral index of the right magnitude to account for the Planck observation and to allow Planck to be consistent with a large value of r

  4. Planck intermediate results XXIV. Constraints on variations in fundamental constants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2015-01-01

    cosmological probes. We conclude that independent time variations of the fine structure constant and of the mass of the electron are constrained by Planck to Δ Α/Α = (3.6±3.7) x 10-3 and Δ me/me = (4 ±11) x 10-3 at the 68% confidence level. We also investigate the possibility of a spatial variation of the fine...

  5. Preliminary Planck constant measurements via UME oscillating magnet Kibble balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmedov, H.; Babayiğit Aşkın, N.; Korutlu, B.; Orhan, R.

    2018-06-01

    The UME Kibble balance project was initiated in the second half of 2014. During this period we have studied the theoretical aspects of Kibble balances, in which an oscillating magnet generates AC Faraday’s voltage in a stationary coil, and constructed a trial version to implement this idea. The remarkable feature of this approach is that it can establish the link between the Planck constant and a macroscopic mass by one single experiment in the most natural way. Weak dependences on variations of environmental and experimental conditions, small size, and other useful features offered by this novel approach reduce the complexity of the experimental set-up. This paper describes the principles of the oscillating magnet Kibble balance and gives details of the preliminary Planck constant measurements. The value of the Planck constant determined with our apparatus is \\boldsymbol{h}/{{\\boldsymbol{h}}\\boldsymbol 90}={1}{.000} {004}~ , with a relative standard uncertainty of 6 ppm.

  6. CMB lensing forecasts for constraining the primordial perturbations: adding to the CMB temperature and polarization information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasanda, Simon Muya; Moodley, Kavilan, E-mail: simon.muya.kasanda@gmail.com, E-mail: moodleyk41@ukzn.ac.za [Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit and School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, University Road, Durban, 4041 (South Africa)

    2014-12-01

    We forecast how current (PLANCK) and future (PRISM) cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments constrain the adiabatic mode and its admixtures with primordial isocurvature modes. The forecasts are based on measurements of the reconstructed CMB lensing potential and lensing-induced CMB B-mode polarization anisotropies in combination with the CMB temperature and E-mode polarization anisotropies. We first study the characteristic features of the CMB temperature, polarization and lensing spectra for adiabatic and isocurvature modes. We then consider how information from the CMB lensing potential and B-mode polarization induced by lensing can improve constraints on an admixture of adiabatic and three correlated isocurvature modes. We find that the CMB lensing spectrum improves constraints on isocurvature modes by at most 10% for the PLANCK and PRISM experiments. The limited improvement is a result of the low amplitude of isocurvature lensing spectra and cancellations between these spectra that render them only slightly detectable. There is a larger gain from using the lensing-induced B-mode polarization spectrum measured by PRISM. In this case constraints on isocurvature mode amplitudes improve by as much as 40% relative to the CMB temperature and E-mode polarization constraints. The addition of both lensing and lensing-induced B-mode polarization information constrains isocurvature mode amplitudes at the few percent level or better. In the case of admixtures of the adiabatic mode with one or two correlated isocurvature modes we find that constraints at the percent level or better are possible. We investigate the dependence of our results to various assumptions in our analysis, such as the inclusion of dark energy parameters, the CMB temperature-lensing correlation, and the presence of primordial tensor modes, and find that these assumptions do not significantly change our main results.

  7. Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2010-12-01

    Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

  8. On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voev, Valeri

    We analyze the applicability of economic criteria for volatility forecast evaluation based on unconditional measures of portfolio performance. The main theoretical finding is that such unconditional measures generally fail to rank conditional forecasts correctly due to the presence of a bias term...... driven by the variability of the conditional mean and portfolio weights. Simulations and a small empirical study suggest that the bias can be empirically substantial and lead to distortions in forecast evaluation. An important implication is that forecasting superiority of models using high frequency...

  9. Internal delensing of Planck CMB temperature and polarization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carron, Julien [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Lewis, Antony; Challinor, Anthony, E-mail: j.carron@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: Antony.Lewis@sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: a.d.challinor@ast.cam.ac.uk [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Institute for Cosmology, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0HA (United Kingdom)

    2017-05-01

    We present a first internal delensing of CMB maps, both in temperature and polarization, using the public foreground-cleaned (SMICA) Planck 2015 maps. After forming quadratic estimates of the lensing potential, we use the corresponding displacement field to undo the lensing on the same data. We build differences of the delensed spectra to the original data spectra specifically to look for delensing signatures. After taking into account reconstruction noise biases in the delensed spectra, we find an expected sharpening of the power spectrum acoustic peaks with a delensing efficiency of 29 % ( TT ) 25 % ( TE ) and 22 % ( EE ). The detection significance of the delensing effects is very high in all spectra: 12 σ in EE polarization; 18 σ in TE ; and 20 σ in TT . The null hypothesis of no lensing in the maps is rejected at 26 σ. While direct detection of the power in lensing B -modes themselves is not possible at high significance at Planck noise levels, we do detect (at 4.5 σ (under the null hypothesis)) delensing effects in the B -mode map, with 7 % reduction in lensing power. Our results provide a first demonstration of polarization delensing, and generally of internal CMB delensing, and stand in agreement with the baseline ΛCDM Planck 2015 cosmology expectations.

  10. Planck early results. XIV. ERCSC validation and extreme radio sources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lähteenmäki, A.; Lavonen, N.; León-Tavares, J.

    2011-01-01

    Planck's all-sky surveys at 30-857 GHz provide an unprecedented opportunity to follow the radio spectra of a large sample of extragalactic sources to frequencies 2-20 times higher than allowed by past, large-area, ground-based surveys. We combine the results of the Planck Early Release Compact So...

  11. Planck 2015 results: XXIV. Cosmology from Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster counts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present cluster counts and corresponding cosmological constraints from the Planck full mission data set. Our catalogue consists of 439 clusters detected via their Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) signal down to a signal-to-noise ratio of 6, and is more than a factor of 2 larger than the 2013 Planck clus...

  12. MAPS OF THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS FROM COMBINED SOUTH POLE TELESCOPE AND PLANCK DATA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crawford, T. M.; Benson, B. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Chang, C. L.; Crites, A. T.; Hou, Z.; Keisler, R. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Chown, R.; Holder, G. P.; Haan, T. de; Dobbs, M. A. [Department of Physics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T8 (Canada); Aird, K. A.; Hrubes, J. D. [University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Cho, H-M. [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); George, E. M.; Harrington, N. L.; Holzapfel, W. L. [Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Halverson, N. W. [Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences and Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States); Knox, L., E-mail: tcrawfor@kicp.uchicago.edu [Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); and others

    2016-12-01

    We present maps of the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds from combined South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck data. The Planck satellite observes in nine bands, while the SPT data used in this work were taken with the three-band SPT-SZ camera, The SPT-SZ bands correspond closely to three of the nine Planck bands, namely those centered at 1.4, 2.1, and 3.0 mm. The angular resolution of the Planck data ranges from 5 to 10 arcmin, while the SPT resolution ranges from 1.0 to 1.7 arcmin. The combined maps take advantage of the high resolution of the SPT data and the long-timescale stability of the space-based Planck observations to deliver robust brightness measurements on scales from the size of the maps down to ∼1 arcmin. In each band, we first calibrate and color-correct the SPT data to match the Planck data, then we use noise estimates from each instrument and knowledge of each instrument’s beam to make the inverse-variance-weighted combination of the two instruments’ data as a function of angular scale. We create maps assuming a range of underlying emission spectra and at a range of final resolutions. We perform several consistency tests on the combined maps and estimate the expected noise in measurements of features in them. We compare maps from this work to those from the Herschel HERITAGE survey, finding general consistency between the data sets. All data products described in this paper are available for download from the NASA Legacy Archive for Microwave Background Data Analysis server.

  13. LLE-LLNL progress report on studies in nonlocal heat transport in spherical plasmas using the Fokker-Planck code SPARK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epperlein, E.M.

    1992-01-01

    Preliminary 1-D studies of nonlocal heat transport in spherical plasmas based on the Fokker-Planck code SPARK indicate significant levels of electron preheat and radial heat flux across a spherical heat sink surface kept at fixed temperature. However, the diffusive approximation to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be particularly sensitive to the nature of the inner surface boundary condition chosen. A suggested remedy is the inclusion of a target capsule in future simulations studies with SPARK

  14. An atomistic interpretation of Planck's 1900 derivation of his radiation law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irons, F.E.

    2000-01-01

    In deriving his radiation law in 1900, Max Planck employed a simple harmonic oscillator to model the exchange of energy between radiation and matter. Traditionally the harmonic oscillator has been viewed as modelling an entity which is itself oscillating, although a suitable oscillating entity has not been forthcoming. (Opinion is divided between a material oscillator, an imaginary oscillator and a need to revise Planck's derivation to apply to cavity modes of oscillation). We offer a novel, atomistic interpretation of Planck's derivation wherein the harmonic oscillator models a transition between the internal quantum states of an atom|not a normal electronic atom characterised by possible energies 0 and hν, but an atom populated by subatomic bosons (such as pions) and characterised by multiple occupancy of quantum states and possible energies nhν (n = 0;1;2; ...). We show how Planck's derivation can be varied to accommodate electronic atoms. A corollary to the atomistic interpretation is that Planck's derivation can no longer be construed as support for the postulate that material oscillating entities can have only those energies that are multiples of hν. Copyright (2000) CSIRO Australia

  15. Planck intermediate results. X. Physics of the hot gas in the Coma cluster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    We present an analysis of Planck satellite data on the Coma Cluster observed via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect. Planck is able, for the first time, to detect SZ emission up to r ~ 3 X R_500. We test previously proposed models for the pressure distribution in clusters against the azimuthally averaged...... data. We find that the Arnaud et al. universal pressure profile does not fit Coma, and that their pressure profile for merging systems provides a good fit of the data only at rR_500 than the mean pressure profile predicted by the simulations. The Planck image shows significant local steepening of the y...

  16. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...... and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions...

  17. Cosmology with the Planck Satellite

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    Sketched out in 1992, selected by ESA in 1996, and launched in 2009, the Planck satellite was shut off in 2013, after a measuring mission that exceeded all expectations. The Planck collaboration delivered a first set of cosmological data and results in March 21st 2013, and the full set in February 2015. Part of the data delivery is a "definitive" map of the anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), its angular power spectrum together with their full statistical characterisation. The 2015 delivery also includes pioneering polarisation data. The temperature anisotropy map displays minuscule variations as a function of the observing direction, of rms ~100microK, of the fossil radiation around its mean temperature of 2.725K. Other maps reveal the CMB polarisation. The anisotropies are the imprint of the primordial fluctuations which initiated the growth of the large scale structures of the Universe, as transformed by their evolution, in particular during the first 370 000 years, as well as finer e...

  18. The comparative analysis of the forecasts of development of rocket propulsion in past and now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nedaivoda, A.; Prisniakov, V.

    2001-03-01

    Consideration is being given to use the known long and short forecasts of development of rocket engines in past - at the beginning of development of a missile engineering (K. Tsiolkovsky etc. pioneers of rocket propulsion); on the eve of launching of the artificial satellite of Earth (A. Blagonravov); after manned flight of Yu. Gagarin (V. Gluchko); after manned flight on Moon (" The Forecasts on 2001 " on materials of readings R. Goddard in USA); in middle of 70-s' years (D. Sevruk, V. Prisniakov) and at the end of 20 centure. Last years under the initiative R. Beichel and M. Pouliquen IAA. Advanced Propulsion Working Group carries out large researches on definition of the tendencies of development of rocket propulsion for the next forty years, the outcomes which one will be used in the report. The comparison of development of rocket propulsion expected to the end of 20 century and real-life is given. The report analyses the errors of the forecasts of the past - the absence reliable prognostic procedure; the euphoria of the maiden successes of conquest of space; dominance of military and political- propaganda motives of implementation of the space programs before economical; to keep developments secret; competition of two super-powers USSR and USA etc.

  19. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  20. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality. Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty....

  1. Planck's Constant as a Natural Unit of Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quincey, Paul

    2013-01-01

    The proposed revision of SI units would embed Planck's constant into the definition of the kilogram, as a fixed constant of nature. Traditionally, Planck's constant is not readily interpreted as the size of something physical, and it is generally only encountered by students in the mathematics of quantum physics. Richard Feynman's…

  2. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  3. Frozen up dilaton and the GUT/Planck mass ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Aharon; Ygael, Tomer

    2017-09-01

    By treating modulus and phase on equal footing, as prescribed by Dirac, local scale invariance can consistently accompany any Brans-Dicke ω-theory. We show that in the presence of a soft scale symmetry breaking term, the classical solution, if it exists, cannot be anything else but general relativistic. The dilaton modulus gets frozen up by the Weyl-Proca vector field, thereby constituting a gravitational quasi-Higgs mechanism. Assigning all grand unified scalars as dilatons, they enjoy Weyl universality, and upon symmetry breaking, the Planck (mass)2 becomes the sum of all their individual (VEV)2s. The emerging GUT/Planck (mass)2 ratio is thus ∼ ωgGUT2 / 4 π.

  4. A multigroup flux-limited asymptotic diffusion Fokker-Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Chengan

    1987-01-01

    A more perfrect flux-limited method is applied to combine with asymptotic diffusion theory of the radiation transpore, and the high peaked component in the scattering angle is treated with Fokker-Planck methods, thus the flux-limited asymptotic diffusion Fokker-Planck equation has been founded. Since the equation is of diffusion form, it retains the simplity and the convenience of the classical diffusion theory, and improves precision in describing radiation transport problems

  5. Aircraft route forecasting under adverse weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hauf

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper storm nowcasts in the terminal manoeuvring area (TMA of Hong Kong International Airport are used to forecast deviation routes through a field of storms for arriving and departing aircraft. Storms were observed and nowcast by the nowcast system SWIRLS from the Hong Kong Observatory. Storms were considered as no-go zones for aircraft and deviation routes were determined with the DIVSIM software package. Two days (21 and 22 May 2011 with 22 actual flown routes were investigated. Flights were simulated with a nowcast issued at the time an aircraft entered the TMA or departed from the airport. These flights were compared with a posteriori simulations, in which all storm fields were known and circumnavigated. Both types of simulated routes were then compared with the actual flown routes. The qualitative comparison of the various routes revealed generally good agreement. Larger differences were found in more complex situations with many active storms in the TMA. Route differences resulted primarily from air traffic control measures imposed such as holdings, slow-downs and shortcuts, causing the largest differences between the estimated and actual landing time. Route differences could be enhanced as aircraft might be forced to circumnavigate a storm ahead in a different sense. The use of route forecasts to assist controllers coordinating flights in a complex moving storm field is discussed. The study emphasises the important application of storm nowcasts in aviation meteorology.

  6. The Implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for Global Dust Forecasting at NOAA NCEP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; Da Silva, Arlindo M.; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S.; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; hide

    2016-01-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Global Forecast System (GFS) Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5-day dust forecasts at 1deg x 1deg resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders, as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

  7. Automatic mesh refinement and parallel load balancing for Fokker-Planck-DSMC algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Küchlin, Stephan; Jenny, Patrick

    2018-06-01

    Recently, a parallel Fokker-Planck-DSMC algorithm for rarefied gas flow simulation in complex domains at all Knudsen numbers was developed by the authors. Fokker-Planck-DSMC (FP-DSMC) is an augmentation of the classical DSMC algorithm, which mitigates the near-continuum deficiencies in terms of computational cost of pure DSMC. At each time step, based on a local Knudsen number criterion, the discrete DSMC collision operator is dynamically switched to the Fokker-Planck operator, which is based on the integration of continuous stochastic processes in time, and has fixed computational cost per particle, rather than per collision. In this contribution, we present an extension of the previous implementation with automatic local mesh refinement and parallel load-balancing. In particular, we show how the properties of discrete approximations to space-filling curves enable an efficient implementation. Exemplary numerical studies highlight the capabilities of the new code.

  8. Inflationary paradigm in trouble after Planck2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ijjas, Anna, E-mail: aijjas@cfa.harvard.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); University Observatory Munich, 81679 Munich (Germany); Steinhardt, Paul J., E-mail: steinh@princeton.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Department of Physics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Princeton Center for Theoretical Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Loeb, Abraham, E-mail: aloeb@cfa.harvard.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2013-06-25

    Recent results from the Planck satellite combined with earlier observations from WMAP, ACT, SPT and other experiments eliminate a wide spectrum of more complex inflationary models and favor models with a single scalar field, as reported by the Planck Collaboration. More important, though, is that all the simplest inflaton models are disfavored statistically relative to those with plateau-like potentials. We discuss how a restriction to plateau-like models has three independent serious drawbacks: it exacerbates both the initial conditions problem and the multiverse-unpredictability problem and it creates a new difficulty that we call the inflationary “unlikeliness problem.” Finally, we comment on problems reconciling inflation with a standard model Higgs, as suggested by recent LHC results. In sum, we find that recent experimental data disfavors all the best-motivated inflationary scenarios and introduces new, serious difficulties that cut to the core of the inflationary paradigm. Forthcoming searches for B-modes, non-Gaussianity and new particles should be decisive.

  9. Planck intermediate results XXVII. High-redshift infrared galaxy overdensity candidates and lensed sources discovered by Planck and confirmed by Herschel-SPIRE⋆

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Altieri, B.; Arnaud, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have used the Planck all-sky submillimetre and millimetre maps to search for rare sources distinguished by extreme brightness, a few hundred millijanskies, and their potential for being situated at high redshift. These "cold" Planck sources, selected using the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) d...

  10. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  11. COSMOLOGY FROM GRAVITATIONAL LENS TIME DELAYS AND PLANCK DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyu, S. H.; Treu, T.; Sonnenfeld, A.; Hilbert, S.; Spiniello, C.; Auger, M. W.; Collett, T.; Blandford, R. D.; Marshall, P. J.; Courbin, F.; Meylan, G.; Tewes, M.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Koopmans, L. V. E.

    2014-01-01

    Under the assumption of a flat ΛCDM cosmology, recent data from the Planck satellite point toward a Hubble constant that is in tension with that measured by gravitational lens time delays and by the local distance ladder. Prosaically, this difference could arise from unknown systematic uncertainties in some of the measurements. More interestingly—if systematics were ruled out—resolving the tension would require a departure from the flat ΛCDM cosmology, introducing, for example, a modest amount of spatial curvature, or a non-trivial dark energy equation of state. To begin to address these issues, we present an analysis of the gravitational lens RXJ1131–1231 that is improved in one particular regard: we examine the issue of systematic error introduced by an assumed lens model density profile. We use more flexible gravitational lens models with baryonic and dark matter components, and find that the exquisite Hubble Space Telescope image with thousands of intensity pixels in the Einstein ring and the stellar velocity dispersion of the lens contain sufficient information to constrain these more flexible models. The total uncertainty on the time-delay distance is 6.6% for a single system. We proceed to combine our improved time-delay distance measurement with the WMAP9 and Planck posteriors. In an open ΛCDM model, the data for RXJ1131–1231 in combination with Planck favor a flat universe with Ω k =0.00 −0.02 +0.01 (68% credible interval (CI)). In a flat wCDM model, the combination of RXJ1131–1231 and Planck yields w=−1.52 −0.20 +0.19 (68% CI)

  12. Planck early results. IX. XMM-Newton follow-up for validation of Planck cluster candidates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.; Polenta, G.

    2011-01-01

    We present the XMM-Newton follow-up for confirmation of Planck cluster candidates. Twenty-five candidates have been observed to date using snapshot (∼10 ks) exposures, ten as part of a pilot programme to sample a low range of signal-to-noise ratios (4

  13. Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

    2018-05-01

    With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

  14. A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

  15. Planck 2015 results. XVIII. Background geometry & topology

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; De Rosa, A.; De Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Feeney, S.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McEwen, J.D.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pogosyan, D.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Tent, F. Van; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    Full-sky CMB maps from the 2015 Planck release allow us to detect departures from global isotropy on the largest scales. We present the first searches using CMB polarization for correlations induced by a non-trivial topology with a fundamental domain intersecting, or nearly intersecting, the last scattering surface (at comoving distance $\\chi_{rec}$). We specialize to flat spaces with toroidal and slab topologies, finding that explicit searches for the latter are sensitive to other topologies with antipodal symmetry. These searches yield no detection of a compact topology at a scale below the diameter of the last scattering surface. The limits on the radius $R_i$ of the largest sphere inscribed in the topological domain (at log-likelihood-ratio $\\Delta\\ln{L}>-5$ relative to a simply-connected flat Planck best-fit model) are $R_i>0.97\\chi_{rec}$ for the cubic torus and $R_i>0.56\\chi_{rec}$ for the slab. The limit for the cubic torus from the matched-circles search is numerically equivalent, $R_i>0.97\\chi_{rec}...

  16. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  17. Planck absolute entropy of a rotating BTZ black hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riaz, S. M. Jawwad

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, the Planck absolute entropy and the Bekenstein-Smarr formula of the rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole are presented via a complex thermodynamical system contributed by its inner and outer horizons. The redefined entropy approaches zero as the temperature of the rotating BTZ black hole tends to absolute zero, satisfying the Nernst formulation of a black hole. Hence, it can be regarded as the Planck absolute entropy of the rotating BTZ black hole.

  18. Development of a High Resolution Weather Forecast Model for Mesoamerica Using the NASA Ames Code I Private Cloud Computing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew; Case, Jonathan; Venner, Jason; Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.; Delgado, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Two projects at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have collaborated to develop a high resolution weather forecast model for Mesoamerica: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, which integrates unique NASA satellite and weather forecast modeling capabilities into the operational weather forecasting community. NASA's SERVIR Program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data, and forecast models to improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas.

  19. Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck calculations using standard discrete-ordinates codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    The Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck (BFP) equation can be used to describe both neutral and charged-particle transport. Over the past several years, the author and several collaborators have developed methods for representing Fokker-Planck operators with standard multigroup-Legendre cross-section data. When these data are input to a standard S/sub n/ code such as ONETRAN, the code actually solves the Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equation rather than the Boltzmann equation. This is achieved wihout any modification to the S/sub n/ codes. Because BFP calculations can be more demanding from a numerical viewpoint than standard neutronics calculations, we have found it useful to implement new quadrature methods ad convergence acceleration methods in the standard discrete-ordinates code, ONETRAN. We discuss our BFP cross-section representation techniques, our improved quadrature and acceleration techniques, and present results from BFP coupled electron-photon transport calculations performed with ONETRAN. 19 refs., 7 figs

  20. Planck 2015 results IX. Diffuse component separation: CMB maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adam, R.; Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.

    2016-01-01

    We present foreground-reduced cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps derived from the full Planck data set in both temperature and polarization. Compared to the corresponding Planck 2013 temperature sky maps, the total data volume is larger by a factor of 3.2 for frequencies between 30 and 70 GHz......, and between 4.5 and 6.1μK averaged over pixels. The cosmological parameters derived from the analysis of temperature power spectra are in agreement at the 1σ level with the Planck 2015 likelihood. Unresolved mismatches between the noise properties of the data and simulations prevent a satisfactory description...... of the higher-order statistical properties of the polarization maps. Thus, the primary applications of these polarization maps are those that do not require massive simulations for accurate estimation of uncertainties, for instance estimation of cross-spectra and cross-correlations, or stacking analyses...

  1. On Long Memory Origins and Forecast Horizons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    Most long memory forecasting studies assume that the memory is generated by the fractional difference operator. We argue that the most cited theoretical arguments for the presence of long memory do not imply the fractional difference operator, and assess the performance of the autoregressive...... fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model when forecasting series with long memory generated by nonfractional processes. We find that high-order autoregressive (AR) models produce similar or superior forecast performance than ARFIMA models at short horizons. Nonetheless, as the forecast horizon...... increases, the ARFIMA models tend to dominate in forecast performance. Hence, ARFIMA models are well suited for forecasts of long memory processes regardless of the long memory generating mechanism, particularly for medium and long forecast horizons. Additionally, we analyse the forecasting performance...

  2. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  3. Planck early results. XIX. All-sky temperature and dust optical depth from Planck and IRAS. Constraints on the "dark gas" in our Galaxy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.; Polenta, G.

    2011-01-01

    An all sky map of the apparent temperature and optical depth of thermal dust emission is constructed using the Planck-HFI (350μm to 2 mm) andIRAS(100μm) data. The optical depth maps are correlated with tracers of the atomic (Hi) and molecular gas traced by CO. The correlation with the column dens...

  4. Planck 2015 results: XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.

    2016-01-01

    on the same hybrid approach used for the previous release, i.e., a pixel-based likelihood at low multipoles (ℓ data and of Planck polarization......This paper presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlationfunctions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization fluctuations that account for relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. They are based...... information, along with more detailed models of foregrounds and instrumental uncertainties. The increased redundancy brought by more than doubling the amount of data analysed enables further consistency checks and enhanced immunity to systematic effects. It also improves the constraining power of Planck...

  5. Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

    2015-01-01

    A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

  6. Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education: Annual Report 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Max-Planck-Institut fuer Bildungsforschung, Berlin (West Germany).

    The Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education in Germany consists of four research centers dealing with the following topics: sociology and the study of the life course; development and socialization; psychology and human development; and school systems and instruction. This English-language annual report of the Planck Institute,…

  7. Application of Fokker-Planck equation in positron diffusion trapping model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartosova, I.; Ballo, P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper is a theoretical prelude to future work involving positron diffusion in solids for the purpose of positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS). PALS is a powerful tool used to study defects present in materials. However, the behavior of positrons in solids is a process hard to describe. Various models have been established to undertake this task. Our preliminary model is based on the Diffusion Trapping Model (DTM) described by partial differential Fokker-Planck equation and is solved via time discretization. Fokker-Planck equation describes the time evolution of the probability density function of velocity of a particle under the influence of various forces. (authors)

  8. Probing nuclear rates with Planck and BICEP2

    CERN Document Server

    Di Valentino, Eleonora; Lesgourgues, Julien; Mangano, Gianpiero; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Miele, Gennaro; Pisanti, Ofelia

    2014-01-01

    Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) relates key cosmological parameters to the primordial abundance of light elements. In this paper, we point out that the recent observations of Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies by the Planck satellite and by the BICEP2 experiment constrain these parameters with such a high level of accuracy that the primordial deuterium abundance can be inferred with remarkable precision. For a given cosmological model, one can obtain independent information on nuclear processes in the energy range relevant for BBN, which determine the eventual ^2H/H yield. In particular, assuming the standard cosmological model, we show that a combined analysis of Planck data and of recent deuterium abundance measurements in metal-poor damped Lyman-alpha systems provides independent information on the cross section of the radiative capture reaction d(p,\\gamma)^3He converting deuterium into helium. Interestingly, the result is higher than the values suggested by a fit of present experimental data in the B...

  9. Generalized Fokker-Planck equations for coloured, multiplicative Gaussian noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cetto, A.M.; Pena, L. de la; Velasco, R.M.

    1984-01-01

    With the help of Novikov's theorem, it is possible to derive a master equation for a coloured, multiplicative, Gaussian random process; the coefficients of this master equation satisfy a complicated auxiliary integro-differential equation. For small values of the Kubo number, the master equation reduces to an approximate generalized Fokker-Planck equation. The diffusion coefficient is explicitly written in terms of correlation functions. Finally, a straightforward and elementary second order perturbative treatment is proposed to derive the same approximate Fokker-Planck equation. (author)

  10. Research on light rail electric load forecasting based on ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yifan

    2018-04-01

    The article compares a variety of time series models and combines the characteristics of power load forecasting. Then, a light load forecasting model based on ARMA model is established. Based on this model, a light rail system is forecasted. The prediction results show that the accuracy of the model prediction is high.

  11. New Approaches for Solving Fokker Planck Equation on Cantor Sets within Local Fractional Operators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Kamil Jassim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss new approaches to handling Fokker Planck equation on Cantor sets within local fractional operators by using the local fractional Laplace decomposition and Laplace variational iteration methods based on the local fractional calculus. The new approaches maintain the efficiency and accuracy of the analytical methods for solving local fractional differential equations. Illustrative examples are given to show the accuracy and reliable results.

  12. The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Cheng-Hsuan; da Silva, Arlindo; Wang, Jun; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Chin, Mian; Colarco, Peter; Tang, Youhua; Bhattacharjee, Partha S; Chen, Shen-Po; Chuang, Hui-Ya; Juang, Hann-Ming Henry; McQueen, Jeffery; Iredell, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) for global dust forecasting in collaboration with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). NGAC Version 1.0 has been providing 5 day dust forecasts at 1°×1° resolution on a global scale, once per day at 00:00 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), since September 2012. This is the first global system capable of interactive atmosphere aerosol forecasting at NCEP. The implementation of NGAC V1.0 reflects an effective and efficient transitioning of NASA research advances to NCEP operations, paving the way for NCEP to provide global aerosol products serving a wide range of stakeholders as well as to allow the effects of aerosols on weather forecasts and climate prediction to be considered.

  13. Inflation after False Vacuum Decay observational Prospects after Planck

    CERN Document Server

    Bousso, Raphael; Senatore, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    We assess potential signals of the formation of our universe by the decay of a false vacuum. Negative spatial curvature is one possibility, but the window for its detection is now small. However, another possible signal is a suppression of the CMB power spectrum at large angles. This arises from the steepening of the effective potential as it interpolates between a flat inflationary plateau and the high barrier separating us from our parent vacuum. We demonstrate that these two effects can be parametrically separated in angular scale. Observationally, the steepening effect appears to be excluded at large l; but it remains consistent with the slight lack of power below l about 30 found by the WMAP and Planck collaborations. We give two simple models which improve the fit to the Planck data; one with observable curvature and one without. Despite cosmic variance, we argue that future CMB polarization and most importantly large-scale structure observations should be able to corroborate the Planck anomaly if it is...

  14. Beyond the Planck Scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giddings, Steven B.

    2009-01-01

    I outline motivations for believing that important quantum gravity effects lie beyond the Planck scale at both higher energies and longer distances and times. These motivations arise in part from the study of ultra-high energy scattering, and also from considerations in cosmology. I briefly summarize some inferences about such ultra-planckian physics, and clues we might pursue towards the principles of a more fundamental theory addressing the known puzzles and paradoxes of quantum gravity.

  15. Environmental noise forecasting based on support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yumei; Zan, Xinwu; Chen, Tianyi; Xiang, Shihan

    2018-01-01

    As an important pollution source, the noise pollution is always the researcher's focus. Especially in recent years, the noise pollution is seriously harmful to the human beings' environment, so the research about the noise pollution is a very hot spot. Some noise monitoring technologies and monitoring systems are applied in the environmental noise test, measurement and evaluation. But, the research about the environmental noise forecasting is weak. In this paper, a real-time environmental noise monitoring system is introduced briefly. This monitoring system is working in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. It is monitoring and collecting the environmental noise about more than 20 enterprises in this district. Based on the large amount of noise data, the noise forecasting by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is studied in detail. Compared with the time series forecasting model and the artificial neural network forecasting model, the SVM forecasting model has some advantages such as the smaller data size, the higher precision and stability. The noise forecasting results based on the SVM can provide the important and accuracy reference to the prevention and control of the environmental noise.

  16. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  17. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  18. Baryon asymmetry from Planck-scale physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gelmini, G.; Holman, R.; Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA

    1992-06-01

    It has been noted recently that Planck scale physics may induce the explicit breaking of global symmetries. We point out that in Majoron models, these explicit breakings, combined with sphaleron induced violation of B + L can give rise to the baryon asymmetry of the Universe

  19. Planck 2013 results. XIX. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Fosalba, P.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Frommert, M.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Genova-Santos, R.T.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Ho, S.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Ilic, S.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jasche, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Langer, M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marcos-Caballero, A.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Racine, B.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Schaefer, B.M.; Schiavon, F.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Viel, M.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; White, M.; Xia, J.Q.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    Based on CMB maps from the 2013 Planck Mission data release, this paper presents the detection of the ISW effect, i.e., the correlation between the CMB and large-scale evolving gravitational potentials. The significance of detection ranges from 2 to 4 sigma, depending on which method is used. We investigate three separate approaches, which cover essentially all previous studies, as well as breaking new ground. (i) Correlation of the CMB with the Planck reconstructed gravitational lensing potential (for the first time). This detection is made using the lensing-induced bispectrum; the correlation between lensing and the ISW effect has a significance close to 2.5 sigma. (ii) Cross-correlation with tracers of LSS, yielding around 3 sigma significance, based on a combination of radio (NVSS) and optical (SDSS) data. (iii) Aperture photometry on stacked CMB fields at the locations of known large-scale structures, which yields a 4 sigma signal when using a previously explored catalogue, but shows strong discrepancies...

  20. From Planck Constant to Isomorphicity Through Justice Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidajatullah-Maksoed, Widastra

    2015-05-01

    Robert E. Scott in his ``Chaos theory and the Justice Paradox'', William & Mary Law Review, v 35, I 1, 329 (1993) wrotes''...As we approach the 21-st Century, the signs of social disarray are everywhere. Social critics observe the breakdown of core structure - the nuclear family, schools, neighborhoods & political groups''. For completions for ``soliton'' first coined by Morikazu TODA, comparing the ``Soliton on Scott-Russell aqueduct on the Union Canal near Heriot-WATT University, July 12, 1995 to Michael Stock works: ``a Fine WATT-Balance: Determination of Planck constant & Redefinition of Kilogram'', January 2011, we can concludes the inherencies between `chaos' & `soliton'. Further through ``string theory'' from Michio KAKU sought statements from Peter Mayr: Stringy world brane & Exponential hierarchy'', JHEP 11 (2000): ``if the 5-brane is embedded in flat 10-D space time, the 6-D Planck mass on the brane is infinite'' who also describes the relation of isomorphicity & ``string theory'', from whom denotes the smart city. Replace this text with your abstract body. Incredible acknowledgments to HE. Mr. Drs. P. SWANTORO & HE. Mr. Dr-HC Jakob OETAMA.

  1. The Planck Satellite LFI and the Microwave Background: Importance of the 4 K Reference Targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Armed with 4 K reference targets, the Planck satellite low frequency instrument (LFI is intended to map the microwave anisotropies of the sky from the second Lagrange point, L2. Recently, the complete design and pre-flight testing of these 4 K targets has been published (Valenziano L. et al., JINST 4, 2009, T12006. The receiver chain of the LFI is based on a pseudo-correlation architecture. Consequently, the presence of a 3 K microwave background signal at L2 can be established, if the 4 K reference targets function as intended. Conversely, demonstration that the targets are unable to provide the desired emission implies that the 3 K signal cannot exist, at this location. Careful study reveals that only the second scenario can be valid. This analysis thereby provides firm evidence that the monopole of the microwave background, as initially detected by Penzias and Wilson, is being produced by the Earth itself.

  2. The Planck Satellite LFI and the Microwave Background: Importance of the 4K Reference Targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Armed with ~4K reference targets, the Planck satellite low frequency instrument (LFI is intended to map the microwave anisotropies of the sky from the second Lagrange point, L2. Recently, the complete design and pre-flight testing of these ~4K targets has been published (Valenziano L. et al., JINST 4, 2009, T12006. The receiver chain of the LFI is based on a pseudo-correlation architecture. Consequently, the presence of a ~3K microwave background signal at L2 can be established, if the ~4K reference targets function as intended. Conversely, demonstration that the targets are unable to provide the desired emission implies that the ~3K signal cannot exist, at this location. Careful study reveals that only the second scenario can be valid. This analysis thereby provides firm evidence that the monopole of the microwave background, as initially detected by Penzias and Wilson, is being produced by the Earth itself.

  3. Reconciling Planck with the local value of H0 in extended parameter space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Di Valentino

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent determination of the local value of the Hubble constant by Riess et al., 2016 (hereafter R16 is now 3.3 sigma higher than the value derived from the most recent CMB anisotropy data provided by the Planck satellite in a ΛCDM model. Here we perform a combined analysis of the Planck and R16 results in an extended parameter space, varying simultaneously 12 cosmological parameters instead of the usual 6. We find that a phantom-like dark energy component, with effective equation of state w=−1.29−0.12+0.15 at 68% c.l. can solve the current tension between the Planck dataset and the R16 prior in an extended ΛCDM scenario. On the other hand, the neutrino effective number is fully compatible with standard expectations. This result is confirmed when including cosmic shear data from the CFHTLenS survey and CMB lensing constraints from Planck. However, when BAO measurements are included we find that some of the tension with R16 remains, as also is the case when we include the supernova type Ia luminosity distances from the JLA catalog.

  4. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  5. Planck 2015 results. XVII. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Arroja, F.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Ballardini, M.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; De Rosa, A.; De Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Heavens, A.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lacasa, F.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Münchmeyer, M.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Racine, B.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Shiraishi, M.; Smith, K.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutter, P.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Troja, A.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    The Planck full mission cosmic microwave background(CMB) temperature and E-mode polarization maps are analysed to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity(NG). Using three classes of optimal bispectrum estimators - separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal - we obtain consistent values for the local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes, quoting as our final result from temperature alone fNL^local=2.5+\\-5.7, fNL^equil=-16+\\-70 and fNL^ortho=-34+\\-33(68%CL). Combining temperature and polarization data we obtain fNL^local=0.8+\\-5.0, fNL^equil=-4+\\-43 and fNL^ortho=-26+\\-21 (68%CL). The results are based on cross-validation of these estimators on simulations, are stable across component separation techniques, pass an extensive suite of tests, and are consistent with Minkowski functionals based measurements. The effect of time-domain de-glitching systematics on the bispectrum is negligible. In spite of these test outcomes we conservatively label the results including polarization da...

  6. Photovoltaics (PV System Energy Forecast on the Basis of the Local Weather Forecast: Problems, Uncertainties and Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristijan Brecl

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available When integrating a photovoltaic system into a smart zero-energy or energy-plus building, or just to lower the electricity bill by rising the share of the self-consumption in a private house, it is very important to have a photovoltaic power energy forecast for the next day(s. While the commercially available forecasting services might not meet the household prosumers interests due to the price or complexity we have developed a forecasting methodology that is based on the common weather forecast. Since the forecasted meteorological data does not include the solar irradiance information, but only the weather condition, the uncertainty of the results is relatively high. However, in the presented approach, irradiance is calculated from discrete weather conditions and with correlation of forecasted meteorological data, an RMS error of 65%, and a R2 correlation factor of 0.85 is feasible.

  7. The Simultaneous Medicina-Planck Experiment: data acquisition, reduction and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procopio, P.; Massardi, M.; Righini, S.; Zanichelli, A.; Ricciardi, S.; Libardi, P.; Burigana, C.; Cuttaia, F.; Mack, K.-H.; Terenzi, L.; Villa, F.; Bonavera, L.; Morgante, G.; Trigilio, C.; Trombetti, T.; Umana, G.

    2011-10-01

    The Simultaneous Medicina-Planck Experiment (SiMPlE) is aimed at observing a selected sample of 263 extragalactic and Galactic sources with the Medicina 32-m single-dish radio telescope in the same epoch as the Planck satellite observations. The data, acquired with a frequency coverage down to 5 GHz and combined with Planck at frequencies above 30 GHz, will constitute a useful reference catalogue of bright sources over the whole Northern hemisphere. Furthermore, source observations performed in different epochs and comparisons with other catalogues will allow the investigation of source variabilities on different time-scales. In this work, we describe the sample selection, the ongoing data acquisition campaign, the data reduction procedures, the developed tools and the comparison with other data sets. We present 5 and 8.3 GHz data for the SiMPlE Northern sample, consisting of 79 sources with δ≥ 45° selected from our catalogue and observed during the first 6 months of the project. A first analysis of their spectral behaviour and long-term variability is also presented.

  8. The new IEA Wind Task 36 on Wind Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind E...... forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions....

  9. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  10. Planck 2013 Results. XXIV. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Heavens, A.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lacasa, F.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Peiris, H.V.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Racine, B.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Smith, K.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Planck nominal mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps yield unprecedented constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). Using three optimal bispectrum estimators, separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal, we obtain consistent values for the primordial local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes, quoting as our final result fNL^local= 2.7+/-5.8, fNL^equil= -42+/-75, and fNL^ortho= -25+\\-39 (68% CL statistical). NG is detected in the data; using skew-C_l statistics we find a nonzero bispectrum from residual point sources, and the ISW-lensing bispectrum at a level expected in the LambdaCDM scenario. The results are based on comprehensive cross-validation of these estimators on Gaussian and non-Gaussian simulations, are stable across component separation techniques, pass an extensive suite of tests, and are confirmed by skew-C_l, wavelet bispectrum and Minkowski functional estimators. Beyond estimates of individual shape amplitudes, we present model-independent, 3-dimensional...

  11. Planck 2015 results: XV. Gravitational lensing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the most significant measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential to date (at a level of 40σ), using temperature and polarization data from the Planck 2015 full-mission release. Using a polarization-only estimator, we detect lensing at a significance of 5σ. We...

  12. Planck and the local Universe: quantifying the tension

    CERN Document Server

    Verde, Licia; Protopapas, Pavlos

    2013-01-01

    We use the latest Planck constraints, and in particular constraints on the derived parameters (Hubble constant and age of the Universe) for the local universe and compare them with local measurements of the same quantities. We propose a way to quantify whether cosmological parameters constraints from two different experiments are in tension or not. Our statistic, T, is an evidence ratio and therefore can be interpreted with the widely used Jeffrey's scale. We find that in the framework of the LCDM model, the Planck inferred two dimensional, joint, posterior distribution for the Hubble constant and age of the Universe is in "strong" tension with the local measurements; the odds being ~ 1:50. We explore several possibilities for explaining this tension and examine the consequences both in terms of unknown errors and deviations from the LCDM model. In some one-parameter LCDM model extensions, tension is reduced whereas in other extensions, tension is instead increased. In particular, small total neutrino masses ...

  13. Planck 2015 results. VII. HFI TOI and beam processing

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bertincourt, B.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.-R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.-M.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leahy, J.P.; Lellouch, E.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Moreno, R.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Mottet, S.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Sauvé, A.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vibert, L.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Watson, R.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    The Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) has observed the full sky at six frequencies (100, 143, 217, 353, 545, and 857 GHz) in intensity and at four frequencies in linear polarization (100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz). In order to obtain sky maps, the time-ordered information (TOI) containing the detector and pointing samples must be processed and the angular response must be assessed. The full mission TOI is included in the Planck 2015 release. This paper describes the HFI TOI and beam processing for the 2015 release. HFI calibration and map-making are described in a companion paper. The main pipeline has been modified since the last release (2013 nominal mission in intensity only), by including a correction for the non-linearity of the warm readout and by improving the model of the bolometer time response. The beam processing is an essential tool that derives the angular response used in all the Planck science papers and we report an improvement in the effective beam window function uncertainty of more than a...

  14. Planck early results. XXIII. The first all-sky survey of Galactic cold clumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.; Polenta, G.

    2011-01-01

    We present the statistical properties of the Cold Clump Catalogue of Planck Objects (C3PO), the first all-sky catalogue of cold objects, in terms of their spatial distribution, dust temperature, distance, mass, and morphology. We have combined Planck and IRAS data to extract 10342 cold sources...... dark clouds where the latter have been catalogued. These cold clumps are not isolated but clustered in groups. Dust temperature and emissivity spectral index values are derived from their spectral energy distributions using both Planck and IRAS data. The temperatures range from 7K to 19K...

  15. Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

  16. Exact solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation from an nth order supersymmetric quantum mechanics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulze-Halberg, Axel [Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas, IPN, Unidad Profesional Adolfo Lopez Mateos, Col. San Pedro Zacatenco, Edificio 9, 07738 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: xbataxel@gmail.com; Rivas, Jesus Morales [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco, CBI - Area de Fisica Atomica Molecular Aplicada, Av. San Pablo 180, Reynosa Azcapotzalco, 02200 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: jmr@correo.azc.uam.mx; Pena Gil, Jose Juan [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana - Azcapotzalco, CBI - Area de Fisica Atomica Molecular Aplicada, Av. San Pablo 180, Reynosa Azcapotzalco, 02200 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: jjpg@correo.azc.uam.mx; Garcia-Ravelo, Jesus [Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas, IPN, Unidad Profesional Adolfo Lopez Mateos, Col. San Pedro Zacatenco, Edificio 9, 07738 Mexico D.F. (Mexico)], E-mail: ravelo@esfm.ipn.mx; Roy, Pinaki [Physics and Applied Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta-700108 (India)], E-mail: pinaki@isical.ac.in

    2009-04-20

    We generalize the formalism of nth order Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics (n-SUSY) to the Fokker-Planck equation for constant diffusion coefficient and stationary drift potential. The SUSY partner drift potentials and the corresponding solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation are given explicitly. As an application, we generate new solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation by means of our first- and second-order transformation.

  17. Exact solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation from an nth order supersymmetric quantum mechanics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulze-Halberg, Axel; Rivas, Jesus Morales; Pena Gil, Jose Juan; Garcia-Ravelo, Jesus; Roy, Pinaki

    2009-01-01

    We generalize the formalism of nth order Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics (n-SUSY) to the Fokker-Planck equation for constant diffusion coefficient and stationary drift potential. The SUSY partner drift potentials and the corresponding solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation are given explicitly. As an application, we generate new solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation by means of our first- and second-order transformation.

  18. THE WIGNER–FOKKER–PLANCK EQUATION: STATIONARY STATES AND LARGE TIME BEHAVIOR

    KAUST Repository

    ARNOLD, ANTON

    2012-11-01

    We consider the linear WignerFokkerPlanck equation subject to confining potentials which are smooth perturbations of the harmonic oscillator potential. For a certain class of perturbations we prove that the equation admits a unique stationary solution in a weighted Sobolev space. A key ingredient of the proof is a new result on the existence of spectral gaps for FokkerPlanck type operators in certain weighted L 2-spaces. In addition we show that the steady state corresponds to a positive density matrix operator with unit trace and that the solutions of the time-dependent problem converge towards the steady state with an exponential rate. © 2012 World Scientific Publishing Company.

  19. Applicability of the Fokker-Planck equation to the description of diffusion effects on nucleation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorokin, M. V.; Dubinko, V. I.; Borodin, V. A.

    2017-01-01

    The nucleation of islands in a supersaturated solution of surface adatoms is considered taking into account the possibility of diffusion profile formation in the island vicinity. It is shown that the treatment of diffusion-controlled cluster growth in terms of the Fokker-Planck equation is justified only provided certain restrictions are satisfied. First of all, the standard requirement that diffusion profiles of adatoms quickly adjust themselves to the actual island sizes (adiabatic principle) can be realized only for sufficiently high island concentration. The adiabatic principle is essential for the probabilities of adatom attachment to and detachment from island edges to be independent of the adatom diffusion profile establishment kinetics, justifying the island nucleation treatment as the Markovian stochastic process. Second, it is shown that the commonly used definition of the "diffusion" coefficient in the Fokker-Planck equation in terms of adatom attachment and detachment rates is justified only provided the attachment and detachment are statistically independent, which is generally not the case for the diffusion-limited growth of islands. We suggest a particular way to define the attachment and detachment rates that allows us to satisfy this requirement as well. When applied to the problem of surface island nucleation, our treatment predicts the steady-state nucleation barrier, which coincides with the conventional thermodynamic expression, even though no thermodynamic equilibrium is assumed and the adatom diffusion is treated explicitly. The effect of adatom diffusional profiles on the nucleation rate preexponential factor is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulation is employed to analyze the applicability domain of the Fokker-Planck equation and the diffusion effect beyond it. It is demonstrated that a diffusional cloud is slowing down the nucleation process for a given monomer interaction with the nucleus edge.

  20. The Compton Radius, the de Broglie Radius, the Planck Constant, and the Bohr Orbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daywitt W. C.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Bohr orbits of the hydrogen atom and the Planck constant can be derived classically from the Maxwell equations and the assumption that there is a variation in the electron's velocity about its average value. The resonant nature of the circulating electron and its induced magnetic and Faraday fields prevents a radiative collapse of the electron into the nuclear proton. The derived Planck constant is $h=2pi e^2/alpha c$, where $e$, $alpha$, and $c$ are the electronic charge, the fine structure constant, and the speed of light. The fact that the Planck vacuum (PV theory derives the same Planck constant independently of the above implies that the two derivations are related. The following highlights that connection.

  1. The Compton Radius, the de Broglie Radius, the Planck Constant, and the Bohr Orbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daywitt W. C.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The Bohr orbits of the hydrogen atom and the Planck constant can be derived classically from the Maxwell equations and the assumption that there is a variation in the electron’s velocity about its average value [1]. The resonant nature of the circulating electron and its induced magnetic and Faraday fields prevents a radiative collapse of the electron into the nuclear proton. The derived Planck constant is h = 2 e 2 = c , where e , , and c are the electronic charge, the fine structure constant, and the speed of light. The fact that the Planck vacuum (PV theory [2] derives the same Planck constant independently of the above implies that the two derivations are related. The following highlights that connection.

  2. Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuqi Dong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the national economy and people’s livelihood through providing effective future plans and ensuring a reliable supply of sustainable electricity. Although considerable work has been done to select suitable models and optimize the model parameters to forecast the short-term electrical load, few models are built based on the characteristics of time series, which will have a great impact on the forecasting accuracy. For that reason, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on data decomposition considering periodicity, trend and randomness of the original electrical load time series data. Through preprocessing and analyzing the original time series, the generalized regression neural network optimized by genetic algorithm is used to forecast the short-term electrical load. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can not only achieve a good fitting ability, but it can also approximate the actual values when dealing with non-linear time series data with periodicity, trend and randomness.

  3. Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Christoph A.; Knowland, K. Emma; Nielsen, Jon E.; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua; hide

    2018-01-01

    We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

  4. Physics League Across Numerous Countries for Kick-ass Students (PLANCKS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, Irene

    2016-01-01

    Physics League Across Numerous Countries for Kick-ass Students (PLANCKS) is an international theoretical physics competition for bachelor and master students. The intention of PLANCKS is to increase international collaboration and stimulate the personal development of individual contestants. This is done by organizing a three-day-event which take place every year and is hosted by different countries. Besides the contest, social and scientific activities will be organised, including an opening symposium where leading physicists give lectures to inspire the participants.

  5. Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more

  6. On the Connection between the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and the Fokker-Planck Control Frameworks

    KAUST Repository

    Annunziato, Mario; Borzì , Alfio; Nobile, Fabio; Tempone, Raul

    2014-01-01

    appropriate assumptions it is shown that the two strategies are equivalent in the case of expected cost functionals, while the FokkerPlanck formalism allows considering a larger class of objectives. To illustrate the connection between the two control

  7. Planck 2015 results. IX. Diffuse component separation: CMB maps

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Casaponsa, B.; Castex, G.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fantaye, Y.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Krachmalnicoff, N.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Racine, B.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    We present foreground-reduced CMB maps derived from the full Planck data set in both temperature and polarization. Compared to the corresponding Planck 2013 temperature sky maps, the total data volume is larger by a factor of 3.2 for frequencies between 30 and 70 GHz, and by 1.9 for frequencies between 100 and 857 GHz. In addition, systematic errors in the forms of temperature-to-polarization leakage, analogue-to-digital conversion uncertainties, and very long time constant errors have been dramatically reduced, to the extent that the cosmological polarization signal may now be robustly recovered on angular scales $\\ell\\gtrsim40$. On the very largest scales, instrumental systematic residuals are still non-negligible compared to the expected cosmological signal, and modes with $\\ell < 20$ are accordingly suppressed in the current polarization maps by high-pass filtering. As in 2013, four different CMB component separation algorithms are applied to these observations, providing a measure of stability with re...

  8. Planck's orders of magnitude and the limits of the quantum gravity conception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borzeszkowski, H.H. von.

    1988-02-01

    In this paper it is shown how the universal constants h, c and G prevent that one can derive measurable quantum GRT effects for energies near the Planck energy. Planck's units thus screen those GRT regions where difficulties for the quantization procedure occur, from a physically sensible quantum-field (or graviton) interpretation. 22 refs

  9. An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter; Jiang, Liping; Rytter, Niels Gorm Malý

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development...... of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model's performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from...... this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior...

  10. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  11. Planck 2013 results. XVIII. The gravitational lensing-infrared background correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The multi-frequency capability of the Planck satellite provides information both on the integrated history of star formation (via the cosmic infrared background, or CIB) and on the distribution of dark matter (via the lensing effect on the cosmic microwave background, or CMB). The conjunction of ...

  12. BICEP2, Planck, spinorial space-time, pre-Big Bang.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalez-Mestres Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The field of Cosmology is currently undergoing a positive and constructive crisis. Controversies concerning inflation are not really new. But after the 2013-2014 Planck and BICEP2 announcements, and the more recent joint analysis by Planck, BICEP2 and the Keck Array (PBKA, the basic issues can involve more direct links between the Mathematical Physics aspects of cosmological patterns and the interpretation of experimental results. Open questions and new ideas on the foundations of Cosmology can emerge, while future experimental and observational programs look very promising. The BICEP2 result reporting an excess of B-mode polarization signal of the cosmic microwave background (CMB radiation was initially presented as a signature of primordial gravitational waves from cosmic inflation. But polarized dust emission can be at the origin of such a signal, and the evidence claimed by BICEP2 is no longer secure after the PBKA analysis. Furthermore, even assuming that significant CMB B-mode polarization has indeed been generated by the early Universe, its theoretical and cosmological interpretation would be far from obvious. Inflationary gravitational waves are not the only possible source of primordial CMB B-modes. Alternative cosmologies such as pre-Big Bang patterns and the spinorial space-time (SST we introduced in 1996-97 can naturally produce this polarization. Furthermore, the SST automatically generates for each comoving observer a local privileged space direction (PSD whose existence may have been confirmed by Planck data. If such a PSD exists, vector perturbations have most likely been strong in the early Universe and may have produced CMB B-modes. Pre-Big Bang cosmologies can also generate gravitational waves in the early Universe without inflation. After briefly describing detectors devoted to the study of the CMB polarization, we discuss the situation emerging from BICEP2 results, Planck results and the PBKA analysis. In particular, we

  13. An independent system operator's perspective on operational ramp forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, G. [New Brunswick System Operator, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    One of the principal roles of the power system operator is to select the most economical resources to reliably supply electric system power needs. Operational wind power production forecasts are required by system operators in order to understand the impact of ramp event forecasting on dispatch functions. A centralized dispatch approach can contribute to a more efficient use of resources that traditional economic dispatch methods. Wind ramping events can have a significant impact on system reliability. Power systems can have constrained or robust transmission systems, and may also be islanded or have large connections to neighbouring systems. Power resources can include both flexible and inflexible generation resources. Wind integration tools must be used by system operators to improve communications and connections with wind power plants. Improved wind forecasting techniques are also needed. Sensitivity to forecast errors is dependent on current system conditions. System operators require basic production forecasts, probabilistic forecasts, and event forecasts. Forecasting errors were presented as well as charts outlining the implications of various forecasts. tabs., figs.

  14. Planck's view on the spectrum of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erler, Jens; Basu, Kaustuv; Chluba, Jens; Bertoldi, Frank

    2018-05-01

    We present a detailed analysis of the stacked frequency spectrum of a large sample of galaxy clusters using Planck data, together with auxiliary data from the AKARI and IRAS missions. Our primary goal is to search for the imprint of relativistic corrections to the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (tSZ) spectrum, which allow to measure the temperature of the intracluster medium. We remove Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds with a matched filtering technique, which is validated using simulations with realistic mock data sets. The extracted spectra show the tSZ signal at high significance and reveal an additional far-infrared (FIR) excess, which we attribute to thermal emission from the galaxy clusters themselves. This excess FIR emission from clusters is accounted for in our spectral model. We are able to measure the tSZ relativistic corrections at 2.2σ by constraining the mean temperature of our cluster sample to 4.4^{+2.1}_{-2.0} keV. We repeat the same analysis on a subsample containing only the 100 hottest clusters, for which we measure the mean temperature to be 6.0^{+3.8}_{-2.9} keV, corresponding to 2.0σ. The temperature of the emitting dust grains in our FIR model is constrained to ≃20 K, consistent with previous studies. Control for systematic biases is done by fitting mock clusters, from which we also show that using the non-relativistic spectrum for SZ signal extraction will lead to a bias in the integrated Compton parameter Y, which can be up to 14% for the most massive clusters. We conclude by providing an outlook for the upcoming CCAT-prime telescope, which will improve upon Planck with lower noise and better spatial resolution.

  15. Observations of the structure and evolution of surface and flight-level wind asymmetries in Hurricane Rita (2005)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Robert; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and distribution of surface winds, including the structure of azimuthal asymmetries in the wind field, are important factors for tropical cyclone forecasting. With its ability to remotely measure surface wind speeds, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) has assumed a prominent role for the operational tropical cyclone forecasting community. An example of this instrument's utility is presented here, where concurrent measurements of aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface winds are used to document the wind field evolution over three days in Hurricane Rita (2005). The amplitude and azimuthal location (phase) of the wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the storm-relative winds varied at both levels over time. The peak was found to the right of storm track at both levels on the first day. By the third day, the peak in flight-level storm-relative winds remained to the right of storm track, but it shifted to left of storm track at the surface, resulting in a 60-degree shift between the surface and flight-level and azimuthal variations in the ratio of surface to flight-level winds. The asymmetric differences between the surface and flight-level maximum wind radii also varied, indicating a vortex whose tilt was increasing.

  16. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

    2018-02-01

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  17. Unterstützung des Grünen Weges zu Open Access an der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft / Support of the Green Road to Open Access within the Max Planck Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lengenfelder, Anja

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The Max Planck Society (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft; MPG with equal weight supports both the Golden and Green Road to Open Access in practice and politically in a sustainable way.In the context of the Green Road it runs with eDoc a central institutional repository for the MPG. The software of the same name is an in-house development. Based on the experiences and wishes of the users, currently, a new application (PubMan which is built upon the eSciDoc framework is introduced within the institutes. eSciDoc is a co-operation with the FIZ Karlsruhe and is funded until 2009 by the BMBF. All applications and services are Open Source and can therefore be re-used and be further developed. Apart from the development and maintenance of technical infrastructures, the Green Road within the MPG is furthered via direct and indirect personal support for scientists during the publication process. In this regard the close exchange between single Max Planck Institutes, the Max Planck Digital Library and other national and international partners plays an important role. With the Berlin Declaration in 2003 and currently in the Priority Initiative “Digital Information” of the Alliance of the German Research Organizations this commitment for Open Access is also politically represented.In this article are introduced and explained both eDoc and PubMan respectively as well as the Open Access Policy of the MPG with a special focus on the activities within the Green Road.

  18. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  19. Planck intermediate results XXIII. Galactic plane emission components derived from Planck with ancillary data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2015-01-01

    Planck data when combined with ancillary data provide a unique opportunity to separate the diuse emission components of the inner Galaxy.The purpose of the paper is to elucidate the morphology of the various emission components in the strong star-formation region lying inside thesolar radius and ...

  20. ON THE NATURE OF THE SMALL-SCALE STRUCTURE IN THE COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND OBSERVED BY PLANCK AND WMAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verschuur, G. L.; Schmelz, J. T., E-mail: gverschu@naic.edu [Arecibo Observatory, HC-3 Box 53995, Arecibo PR 00612 (Puerto Rico)

    2016-12-01

    Small-scale features observed by Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe  ( WMAP ) and PLANCK in the frequency range of 22–90 GHz show a nearly flat spectrum, which meets with expectations that they originate in the early universe. However, free–free emission from electrons in small angular scale galactic sources that suffer beam dilution very closely mimic the observed spectrum in this frequency range. Fitting such a model to the PLANCK and WMAP data shows that the angular size required to fit the data is comparable to the angular width of associated H i filaments found in the Galactic Arecibo L-Band Feed Array-H isurvey data. Also, the temperature of the electrons is found to be in the range of 100–300 K. The phenomenon revealed by these data may contribute to a more precise characterization of the foreground masks required to interpret the cosmological aspect of PLANCK and WMAP data.

  1. Simulating transient dynamics of the time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Yan-Mei, E-mail: ymkang@mail.xjtu.edu.cn

    2016-09-16

    For a physically realistic type of time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck (FP) equation, derived as the continuous limit of the continuous time random walk with time-modulated Boltzmann jumping weight, a semi-analytic iteration scheme based on the truncated (generalized) Fourier series is presented to simulate the resultant transient dynamics when the external time modulation is a piece-wise constant signal. At first, the iteration scheme is demonstrated with a simple time-dependent time fractional FP equation on finite interval with two absorbing boundaries, and then it is generalized to the more general time-dependent Smoluchowski-type time fractional Fokker–Planck equation. The numerical examples verify the efficiency and accuracy of the iteration method, and some novel dynamical phenomena including polarized motion orientations and periodic response death are discussed. - Highlights: • An iteration method is proposed for the transient dynamics of time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck equations. • The method is based on Fourier Series solution and the multi-step transition probability formula. • With the time-modulated subdiffusion on finite interval as example, the polarized motion orientation is disclosed. • With the time-modulated subdiffusion within a confined potential as example, the death of dynamic response is observed.

  2. Simulating transient dynamics of the time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Yan-Mei

    2016-01-01

    For a physically realistic type of time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck (FP) equation, derived as the continuous limit of the continuous time random walk with time-modulated Boltzmann jumping weight, a semi-analytic iteration scheme based on the truncated (generalized) Fourier series is presented to simulate the resultant transient dynamics when the external time modulation is a piece-wise constant signal. At first, the iteration scheme is demonstrated with a simple time-dependent time fractional FP equation on finite interval with two absorbing boundaries, and then it is generalized to the more general time-dependent Smoluchowski-type time fractional Fokker–Planck equation. The numerical examples verify the efficiency and accuracy of the iteration method, and some novel dynamical phenomena including polarized motion orientations and periodic response death are discussed. - Highlights: • An iteration method is proposed for the transient dynamics of time-dependent time fractional Fokker–Planck equations. • The method is based on Fourier Series solution and the multi-step transition probability formula. • With the time-modulated subdiffusion on finite interval as example, the polarized motion orientation is disclosed. • With the time-modulated subdiffusion within a confined potential as example, the death of dynamic response is observed.

  3. Can Planck-mass relics of evaporating black holes close the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGibbon, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    The authors propose that the cosmological dark matter consists of the Planck-mass remnants of evaporating primordial black holes. Such remnants would be expected to have close to the critical density if the black holes evaporating at the present epoch have the maximum density consistent with cosmic-ray constraints. Primordial black holes of the required density may form naturally at the end of an inflationary epoch. Planck-mass relics would behave dynamically just like 'cold dark matter' and would therefore share the attractions of other 'cold' candidates. In addition, because the baryonic matter in black holes cannot participate in nucleosynthesis the limits on the baryonic content of the Universe set by primordial nucleosynthesis are circumvented. (author)

  4. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  5. Planck 2015 results: I. Overview of products and scientific results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Adam, R.; Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.

    2016-01-01

    Collaboration released the second set of cosmology products based ondata from the entire Planck mission, including both temperature and polarization, along with a set of scientific and technical papers and a web-based explanatory supplement. This paper gives an overview of the main characteristics of the data...... and the data products in the release, as well as the associated cosmological and astrophysical science results and papers. The data products include maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect, diffuse foregrounds in temperature and polarization, catalogues of compact...... against the Planck data is described, along with a CMB lensing likelihood. Scientific results include cosmological parameters derived from CMB power spectra, gravitational lensing, and cluster counts, as well as constraints on inflation, non-Gaussianity, primordial magnetic fields, dark energy...

  6. "The Theory of Heat Radiation" Revisited: A Commentary on the Validity of Kirchhoff's Law of Thermal Emission and Max Planck's Claim of Universality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Affirming Kirchhoff’s Law of thermal emission, Max Planck conferred upon his own equation and its constants, h and k , universal significance. All arbitrary cavities were said to behave as blackbodies. They were thought to contain b lack, or normal radiation, which depended only upon temperature and frequency of observation, irrespective of the nature of the cavity walls. Today, laboratory blackbodies a re specialized, heated devices whose interior walls are lined with highly absorptive surfaces, such as graphite, soot, or other sophisticated materials. Such evidence repeatedly calls into question Kirchhoff’s Law, as nothing in the laboratory is independent of the nature of the walls. By focusing on Max Planck’s classic text, “ The Theory of Heat Radiation ’, it can be demonstrated that the German physicist was unable to properly justify Kirchhoff’s Law. At every turn, he was confronted with the fact that materials possess frequency dependent reflectivity and absorptivity, but he often chose to sidestep these realities. He used polarized light to derive Kirchhoff’s Law, when it is well known that blackbody radiation is never polar- ized. Through the use of an element, d σ , at the bounding surface between two media, he reached the untenable position that arbitrary materials have the same reflective prop- erties. His Eq.40 ( ρ = ρ ′ , constituted a dismissal of experimental reality. It is evident that if one neglects reflection, then all cavities must be black. Unable to ensure that perfectly reflecting cavities can be filled with black radiation, Planck inserted a minute carbon particle, which he qualified as a “catalyst”. In fact, it was acting as a perfect absorber, fully able to provide, on its own, the radiation sought. In 1858, Balfour Stew- art had outlined that the proper treatment of cavity radiation must include reflection. Yet, Max Planck did not cite the Scottish scientist. He also d id not correctly address

  7. Discrete Planck spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlad, Valentin I.; Ionescu-Pallas, Nicholas

    2000-10-01

    The Planck radiation spectrum of ideal cubic and spherical cavities, in the region of small adiabatic invariance, γ = TV 1/3 , is shown to be discrete and strongly dependent on the cavity geometry and temperature. This behavior is the consequence of the random distribution of the state weights in the cubic cavity and of the random overlapping of the successive multiplet components, for the spherical cavity. The total energy (obtained by summing up the exact contributions of the eigenvalues and their weights, for low values of the adiabatic invariance) does not obey any longer Stefan-Boltzmann law. The new law includes a corrective factor depending on γ and imposes a faster decrease of the total energy to zero, for γ → 0. We have defined the double quantized regime both for cubic and spherical cavities by the superior and inferior limits put on the principal quantum numbers or the adiabatic invariance. The total energy of the double quantized cavities shows large differences from the classical calculations over unexpected large intervals, which are measurable and put in evidence important macroscopic quantum effects. (author)

  8. The evolving Planck mass in classically scale-invariant theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kannike, K.; Raidal, M.; Spethmann, C.; Veermäe, H. [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics,Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2017-04-05

    We consider classically scale-invariant theories with non-minimally coupled scalar fields, where the Planck mass and the hierarchy of physical scales are dynamically generated. The classical theories possess a fixed point, where scale invariance is spontaneously broken. In these theories, however, the Planck mass becomes unstable in the presence of explicit sources of scale invariance breaking, such as non-relativistic matter and cosmological constant terms. We quantify the constraints on such classical models from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis that lead to an upper bound on the non-minimal coupling and require trans-Planckian field values. We show that quantum corrections to the scalar potential can stabilise the fixed point close to the minimum of the Coleman-Weinberg potential. The time-averaged motion of the evolving fixed point is strongly suppressed, thus the limits on the evolving gravitational constant from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and other measurements do not presently constrain this class of theories. Field oscillations around the fixed point, if not damped, contribute to the dark matter density of the Universe.

  9. The evolving Planck mass in classically scale-invariant theories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannike, K.; Raidal, M.; Spethmann, C.; Veermäe, H.

    2017-04-01

    We consider classically scale-invariant theories with non-minimally coupled scalar fields, where the Planck mass and the hierarchy of physical scales are dynamically generated. The classical theories possess a fixed point, where scale invariance is spontaneously broken. In these theories, however, the Planck mass becomes unstable in the presence of explicit sources of scale invariance breaking, such as non-relativistic matter and cosmological constant terms. We quantify the constraints on such classical models from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis that lead to an upper bound on the non-minimal coupling and require trans-Planckian field values. We show that quantum corrections to the scalar potential can stabilise the fixed point close to the minimum of the Coleman-Weinberg potential. The time-averaged motion of the evolving fixed point is strongly suppressed, thus the limits on the evolving gravitational constant from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and other measurements do not presently constrain this class of theories. Field oscillations around the fixed point, if not damped, contribute to the dark matter density of the Universe.

  10. PROBING THE DARK FLOW SIGNAL IN WMAP 9 -YEAR AND PLANCK COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND MAPS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atrio-Barandela, F. [Física Teórica, Universidad de Salamanca, E-37008 Salamanca (Spain); Kashlinsky, A. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and SSAI, Observational Cosmology Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Ebeling, H. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Fixsen, D. J. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and UMCP, Observational Cosmology Lab, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Kocevski, D., E-mail: atrio@usal.es, E-mail: Alexander.Kashlinsky@nasa.gov, E-mail: ebeling@ifa.hawaii.edu, E-mail: Dale.Fixsen@nasa.gov, E-mail: dale.kocevski@colby.edu [Physics and Astronomy, 5800 Mayflower Hill, Waterville, ME 04901 (United States)

    2015-09-10

    The “dark flow” dipole is a statistically significant dipole found at the position of galaxy clusters in filtered maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature anisotropies. The dipole measured in WMAP 3-, 5-, and 7- year data releases was (1) mutually consistent, (2) roughly aligned with the all-sky CMB dipole, and (3) correlated with clusters’ X-ray luminosities. We analyzed WMAP 9 -year and Planck 1st- year data releases using a catalog of 980 clusters outside of the Kp0 mask to test our earlier findings. The dipoles measured on these new data sets are fully compatible with our earlier estimates, are similar in amplitude and direction to our previous results, and are in disagreement with the results of an earlier study by the Planck Collaboration. Furthermore, in the Planck data sets dipoles are found to be independent of frequency, ruling out the thermal Sunyaev–Zeldovich as the source of the effect. In the data of both WMAP and Planck we find a clear correlation between the dipole measured at the cluster location in filtered maps and the average anisotropy on the original maps, further proving that the dipole is associated with clusters. The dipole signal is dominated by the most massive clusters, with a statistical significance that is better than 99%, slightly larger than in WMAP. Since both data sets differ in foreground contributions, instrumental noise, and other systematics, the agreement between the WMAP and Planck dipoles argues against them being due to systematic effects in either of the experiments.

  11. The overcoming of the mechanistic framework in Planck's research around 1900: a comparison with Boltzmann', Wien' and Rayleigh's contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baracca, A.; Renn, Juergen

    2008-01-01

    It will argue in this talk that the main Planck's merit in 1900 was the overcoming of a mechanist and reductionist horizon, while the effective introduction of the 'quantum', as a physical entity, is very doubtful. On the one hand, Planck maintained an absolute conception of the laws of thermodynamics, and did not accept Boltzmann's probabilistic, and reductionist view (as he declared in his Authobiography, and indirectly appears from Zermelo's paper). On the other hand, the formula known as 'Rayleigh's law' for the spectrum of the cavity radiation was not proposed at all in 1900 (nor later on, as a general expression of the spectrum), and in any case Rayliegh's had absolutely no influence on Planck. We will discuss the early 1900 purely thermodynamical derivation of Planck's law, and his subsequent exploitment of Boltzmann's probabilistic treatment, with the 'discretization' procedure, in the 'act of desesperation' in order to justify his result

  12. Electricity Price Forecasting Based on AOSVR and Outlier Detection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Dianmin; Gao Lin; Gao Feng

    2005-01-01

    Electricity price is of the first consideration for all the participants in electric power market and its characteristics are related to both market mechanism and variation in the behaviors of market participants. It is necessary to build a real-time price forecasting model with adaptive capability; and because there are outliers in the price data, they should be detected and filtrated in training the forecasting model by regression method. In view of these points, this paper presents an electricity price forecasting method based on accurate on-line support vector regression (AOSVR) and outlier detection. Numerical testing results show that the method is effective in forecasting the electricity prices in electric power market.

  13. The precise time-dependent solution of the Fokker–Planck equation with anomalous diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Ran; Du, Jiulin

    2015-01-01

    We study the time behavior of the Fokker–Planck equation in Zwanzig’s rule (the backward-Ito’s rule) based on the Langevin equation of Brownian motion with an anomalous diffusion in a complex medium. The diffusion coefficient is a function in momentum space and follows a generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation. We obtain the precise time-dependent analytical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation and at long time the solution approaches to a stationary power-law distribution in nonextensive statistics. As a test, numerically we have demonstrated the accuracy and validity of the time-dependent solution. - Highlights: • The precise time-dependent solution of the Fokker–Planck equation with anomalous diffusion is found. • The anomalous diffusion satisfies a generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation. • At long time the time-dependent solution approaches to a power-law distribution in nonextensive statistics. • Numerically we have demonstrated the accuracy and validity of the time-dependent solution

  14. The precise time-dependent solution of the Fokker–Planck equation with anomalous diffusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Ran; Du, Jiulin, E-mail: jiulindu@aliyun.com

    2015-08-15

    We study the time behavior of the Fokker–Planck equation in Zwanzig’s rule (the backward-Ito’s rule) based on the Langevin equation of Brownian motion with an anomalous diffusion in a complex medium. The diffusion coefficient is a function in momentum space and follows a generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation. We obtain the precise time-dependent analytical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation and at long time the solution approaches to a stationary power-law distribution in nonextensive statistics. As a test, numerically we have demonstrated the accuracy and validity of the time-dependent solution. - Highlights: • The precise time-dependent solution of the Fokker–Planck equation with anomalous diffusion is found. • The anomalous diffusion satisfies a generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation. • At long time the time-dependent solution approaches to a power-law distribution in nonextensive statistics. • Numerically we have demonstrated the accuracy and validity of the time-dependent solution.

  15. The New Era in Operational Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Carlson, H. C.; Gardner, L. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Bouwer, D.; Bailey, J. J.; Knipp, D. J.; Blake, J. B.; Rex, J.; Fuschino, R.; Mertens, C. J.; Gersey, B.; Wilkins, R.; Atwell, W.

    2012-12-01

    Space weather's effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the energy transfer processes from the Sun's photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere, thermosphere, and even troposphere are key regions that are affected. The Utah State University (USU) Space Weather Center (SWC) and Space Environment Technologies (SET) are developing and producing commercial space weather applications. Key systems for providing timely information about the effects of space weather are SWC's Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system, SET's Magnetosphere Alert and Prediction System (MAPS), and SET's Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety (ARMAS) system. GAIM, operated by SWC, improves real-time communication and navigation systems by continuously ingesting up to 10,000 slant TEC measurements every 15-minutes from approximately 500 stations. Ionosonde data from several dozen global stations is ingested every 15 minutes to improve the vertical profiles within GAIM. These operational runs enable the reporting of global radio high frequency (HF) signal strengths and near vertical incidence skywave (NVIS) maps used by amateur radio operators and emergency responders via the http://q-upnow.com website. MAPS provides a forecast Dst index out to 6 days through the data-driven Anemomilos algorithm. Anemomilos uses observational proxies for the magnitude, location, and velocity of solar ejecta events. This forecast index is used by satellite operations to characterize upcoming geomagnetic storms, for example. ARMAS is demonstrating a prototype flight of microdosimeters on aircraft to capture the "weather" of the radiation environment for air-crew and passenger safety. It assimilates real-time radiation dose and dose rate data into the global NAIRAS radiation system to correct the global climatology for more accurate radiation fields along flight tracks. This team

  16. Planck 2015 results: VI. LFI mapmaking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Ashdown, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the mapmaking procedure applied to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data. The mapmaking step takes as input the calibrated timelines and pointing information. The main products are sky maps of I, Q, and U Stokes components. For the first time, we present polarization maps...... at LFI frequencies. The mapmaking algorithm is based on a destriping technique, which is enhanced with a noise prior. The Galactic region is masked to reduce errors arising from bandpass mismatch and high signal gradients. We apply horn-uniform radiometer weights to reduce the effects of beam...

  17. Massively parallel Fokker-Planck code ALLAp

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batishcheva, A.A.; Krasheninnikov, S.I.; Craddock, G.G.; Djordjevic, V.

    1996-01-01

    The recently developed for workstations Fokker-Planck code ALLA simulates the temporal evolution of 1V, 2V and 1D2V collisional edge plasmas. In this work we present the results of code parallelization on the CRI T3D massively parallel platform (ALLAp version). Simultaneously we benchmark the 1D2V parallel vesion against an analytic self-similar solution of the collisional kinetic equation. This test is not trivial as it demands a very strong spatial temperature and density variation within the simulation domain. (orig.)

  18. Planck 2013 results. XXIII. Isotropy and Statistics of the CMB

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    The two fundamental assumptions of the standard cosmological model - that the initial fluctuations are statistically isotropic and Gaussian - are rigorously tested using maps of the CMB anisotropy from the \\Planck\\ satellite. The detailed results are based on studies of four independent estimates...

  19. Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.

    2016-01-01

    We present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complement...

  20. Possible cosmogenic neutrino constraints on Planck-scale Lorentz violation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattingly, David M. [New Hamshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States); Maccione, Luca [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Galaverni, Matteo [INAF-IASF Bologna (Italy); Liberati, Stefano [INFN, Trieste (Italy); SISSA, Trieste (Italy); Sigl, Guenter [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). II. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2009-11-15

    We study, within an effective field theory framework, O(E{sup 2}/M{sup 2}{sub Pl}) Planck-scale suppressed Lorentz invariance violation (LV) effects in the neutrino sector, whose size we parameterize by a dimensionless parameter {eta}{sub {nu}}. We find deviations from predictions of Lorentz invariant physics in the cosmogenic neutrino spectrum. For positive O(1) coefficients no neutrino will survive above 10{sup 19} eV. The existence of this cutoff generates a bump in the neutrino spectrum at energies of 10{sup 17} eV. Although at present no constraint can be cast, as current experiments do not have enough sensitivity to detect ultra-high-energy neutrinos, we show that experiments in construction or being planned have the potential to cast limits as strong as {eta}{sub {nu}} on the neutrino LV parameter, depending on how LV is distributed among neutrino mass states. Constraints on {eta}{sub {nu}}<0 can in principle be obtained with this strategy, but they require a more detailed modeling of how LV affects the neutrino sector. (orig.)

  1. Possible cosmogenic neutrino constraints on Planck-scale Lorentz violation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattingly, David M.; Maccione, Luca; Galaverni, Matteo; Liberati, Stefano; Sigl, Günter

    2010-01-01

    We study, within an effective field theory framework, O(E 2 M Pl 2 ) Planck-scale suppressed Lorentz invariance violation (LV) effects in the neutrino sector, whose size we parameterize by a dimensionless parameter η ν . We find deviations from predictions of Lorentz invariant physics in the cosmogenic neutrino spectrum. For positive O(1) coefficients no neutrino will survive above 10 19 eV. The existence of this cutoff generates a bump in the neutrino spectrum at energies of 10 17 eV. Although at present no constraint can be cast, as current experiments do not have enough sensitivity to detect ultra-high-energy neutrinos, we show that experiments in construction or being planned have the potential to cast limits as strong as η ν ∼ −4 on the neutrino LV parameter, depending on how LV is distributed among neutrino mass states. Constraints on η ν < 0 can in principle be obtained with this strategy, but they require a more detailed modeling of how LV affects the neutrino sector

  2. The Emergence of a Root Metaphor in Modern Physics: Max Planck's "Quantum" Metaphor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Sheehan, Richard D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses metaphorical analysis to determine whether or not Max Planck invented the quantum postulate. Demonstrates how metaphorical analysis can be used to analyze the rhetoric of revolutionary texts in science. Concludes that, in his original 1900 quantum paper, Planck considered the quantum postulate to be important, but not revolutionary. (PA)

  3. Integral propagator solvers for Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donoso, J M; Rio, E del

    2007-01-01

    We briefly discuss the use of short-time integral propagators on solving the so-called Vlasov-Fokker-Planck equation for the dynamics of a distribution function. For this equation, the diffusion tensor is singular and the usual Gaussian representation of the short-time propagator is no longer valid. However, we prove that the path-integral approach on solving the equation is, in fact, reliable by means of our generalized propagator, which is obtained through the construction of an auxiliary solvable Fokker-Planck equation. The new representation of the grid-free advancing scheme describes the inherent cross- and self-diffusion processes, in both velocity and configuration spaces, in a natural manner, although these processes are not explicitly depicted in the differential equation. We also show that some splitting methods, as well as some finite-difference schemes, could fail in describing the aforementioned diffusion processes, governed in the whole phase space only by the velocity diffusion tensor. The short-time transition probability offers a stable and robust numerical algorithm that preserves the distribution positiveness and its norm, ensuring the smoothness of the evolving solution at any time step. (fast track communication)

  4. Watt balance experiments for the determination of the Planck constant and the redefinition of the kilogram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, M.

    2013-02-01

    Since 1889 the international prototype of the kilogram has served as the definition of the unit of mass in the International System of Units (SI). It is the last material artefact to define a base unit of the SI, and it influences several other base units. This situation is no longer acceptable in a time of ever increasing measurement precision. It is therefore planned to redefine the unit of mass by fixing the numerical value of the Planck constant. At the same time three other base units, the ampere, the kelvin and the mole, will be redefined. As a first step, the kilogram redefinition requires a highly accurate determination of the Planck constant in the present SI system, with a relative uncertainty of the order of 1 part in 108. The most promising experiment for this purpose, and for the future realization of the kilogram, is the watt balance. It compares mechanical and electrical power and makes use of two macroscopic quantum effects, thus creating a relationship between a macroscopic mass and the Planck constant. In this paper the background for the choice of the Planck constant for the kilogram redefinition is discussed and the role of the Planck constant in physics is briefly reviewed. The operating principle of watt balance experiments is explained and the existing experiments are reviewed. An overview is given of all presently available experimental determinations of the Planck constant, and it is shown that further investigation is needed before the redefinition of the kilogram can take place. This article is based on a lecture given at the International School of Physics ‘Enrico Fermi’, Course CLXXXV: Metrology and Physical Constants, held in Varenna on 17-27 July 2012. It will also be published in the proceedings of the school, edited by E Bava, M Kühne and A M Rossi (IOS Press, Amsterdam and SIF, Bologna).

  5. Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aberson, Sim David

    In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible

  6. DROUGHT FORECASTING BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING OF REMOTE SENSING AND LONG-RANGE FORECAST DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Rhee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of drought impacts may be achieved through sustainable drought management and proactive measures against drought disaster. Accurate and timely provision of drought information is essential. In this study, drought forecasting models to provide high-resolution drought information based on drought indicators for ungauged areas were developed. The developed models predict drought indices of the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6 and the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6. An interpolation method based on multiquadric spline interpolation method as well as three machine learning models were tested. Three machine learning models of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extremely Randomized Trees were tested to enhance the provision of drought initial conditions based on remote sensing data, since initial conditions is one of the most important factors for drought forecasting. Machine learning-based methods performed better than interpolation methods for both classification and regression, and the methods using climatology data outperformed the methods using long-range forecast. The model based on climatological data and the machine learning method outperformed overall.

  7. Planck 2013 results. XXI. Power spectrum and high-order statistics of the Planck all-sky Compton parameter map

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2014-01-01

    We have constructed the first all-sky map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect by applying specifically tailored component separation algorithms to the 100 to 857 GHz frequency channel maps from the Planck survey. This map shows an obvious galaxy cluster tSZ signal that is well matched w...

  8. Planck Early Results. XV. Spectral Energy Distributions and Radio Continuum Spectra of Northern Extragalactic Radio Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aatrokoski, J.; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Aller, H. D.; Aller, M. F.; Angelakis, E.; Amaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; hide

    2011-01-01

    Spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and radio continuum spectra are presented for a northern sample of 104 extragalactic radio sources. based on the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC) and simultaneous multi frequency data. The nine Planck frequencies, from 30 to 857 GHz, are complemented by a set of simultaneous observations ranging from radio to gamma-rays. This is the first extensive frequency coverage in the radio and millimetre domains for an essentially complete sample of extragalactic radio sources, and it shows how the individual shocks, each in their own phase of development, shape the radio spectra as they move in the relativistic jet. The SEDs presented in this paper were fitted with second and third degree polynomials to estimate the frequencies of the synchrotron and inverse Compton (IC) peaks, and the spectral indices of low and high frequency radio data, including the Planck ERCSC data, were calculated. SED modelling methods are discussed, with an emphasis on proper. physical modelling of the synchrotron bump using multiple components. Planck ERCSC data also suggest that the original accelerated electron energy spectrum could be much harder than commonly thought, with power-law index around 1.5 instead of the canonical 2.5. The implications of this are discussed for the acceleration mechanisms effective in blazar shock. Furthermore in many cases the Planck data indicate that gamma-ray emission must originate in the same shocks that produce the radio emission.

  9. Fokker-Planck equation in mirror research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Open confinement systems based on the magnetic mirror principle depend on the maintenance of particle distributions that may deviate substantially from Maxwellian distributions. Mirror research has therefore from the beginning relied on theoretical predictions of non-equilibrium rate processes obtained from solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation. The F-P equation plays three roles: Design of experiments, creation of classical standards against which to compare experiment, and predictions concerning mirror based fusion power systems. Analytical and computational approaches to solving the F-P equation for mirror systems will be reviewed, together with results and examples that apply to specific mirror systems, such as the tandem mirror

  10. Large Scale Anomalies of the Cosmic Microwave Background with Planck

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frejsel, Anne Mette

    This thesis focuses on the large scale anomalies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and their possible origins. The investigations consist of two main parts. The first part is on statistical tests of the CMB, and the consistency of both maps and power spectrum. We find that the Planck data...

  11. Planck 2013 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bonavera, L; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, L -Y; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Crill, B P; Cruz, M; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Dick, J; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Gaier, T C; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; Gjerløw, E; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Kangaslahti, P; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kiiveri, K; Kisner, T S; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Lindholm, V; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Paladini, R; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, D; Peel, M; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Platania, P; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Rossetti, M; Roudier, G; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Watson, R; Wilkinson, A; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    We present the current estimate of instrumental and systematic effect uncertainties for the Planck-Low Frequency Instrument relevant to the first release of the Planck cosmological results. We give an overview of the main effects and of the tools and methods applied to assess residuals in maps and power spectra. We also present an overall budget of known systematic effect uncertainties, which are dominated sidelobe straylight pick-up and imperfect calibration. However, even these two effects are at least two orders of magnitude weaker than the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations as measured in terms of the angular temperature power spectrum. A residual signal above the noise level is present in the multipole range $\\ell<20$, most notably at 30 GHz, and is likely caused by residual Galactic straylight contamination. Current analysis aims to further reduce the level of spurious signals in the data and to improve the systematic effects modelling, in particular with respect to straylight and calibra...

  12. Detection of CMB lensing in Planck-HFI data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavabre, Alexis

    2011-01-01

    The Planck satellite is the third generation experiment dedicated to the observation of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The resolution and sensibility of its instruments allow for the first time the detection of the weak lensing effect on CMB. This thesis present a original detection method of this effect in the data of the HFI instrument of Planck.The first part give a general description of the standard model of cosmology et the physics of the CMB. The part then presents the details of the weak lensing effect, concentrating on its impact on the CMB observables. This part ends with a description of the Planck satellite and its instruments.The second part, describes the set of simulations and analysis tools that I have developed allowing me to make the first measurement of the weak lensing effect on CMB. It presents the original method that I used which is based on a patch analysis of the full sky data, that is able to only take into account the less contaminated regions. This part also present the characterisation of the lensing potential estimator for masked maps in the presence of inhomogeneous noise and introduce a method, based on Monte-Carlo simulations, that is used to correct for the bias produced by the analysis method.The last part, concentrates on the work on HFI data. The first chapter presents the application of the above method to the maps of the combined observations at 143 GHz and 217 GHz and the maps from component separation using GMCA algorithm. The results show a deflection power spectrum compatible with the one expect in a lambda CMB universe, calculated with the cosmological parameters estimated by WMAP including seven years of observations. Using the points, from the combined estimation from the 143 GHz and 217 GHz maps, for multipole smaller than 500, gives a 1.26 Chi2 by degree of freedom. Finally, the last chapter presents the compression algorithm used onboard to compression HFI data. It gives the details of the tuning and the

  13. Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2011-01-01

    Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula s "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA s SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT s experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by

  14. Epoch of reionization 21 cm forecasting from MCMC-constrained semi-numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Sultan; Davé, Romeel; Finlator, Kristian; Santos, Mario G.

    2017-06-01

    The recent low value of Planck Collaboration XLVII integrated optical depth to Thomson scattering suggests that the reionization occurred fairly suddenly, disfavouring extended reionization scenarios. This will have a significant impact on the 21 cm power spectrum. Using a semi-numerical framework, we improve our model from instantaneous to include time-integrated ionization and recombination effects, and find that this leads to more sudden reionization. It also yields larger H II bubbles that lead to an order of magnitude more 21 cm power on large scales, while suppressing the small-scale ionization power. Local fluctuations in the neutral hydrogen density play the dominant role in boosting the 21 cm power spectrum on large scales, while recombinations are subdominant. We use a Monte Carlo Markov chain approach to constrain our model to observations of the star formation rate functions at z = 6, 7, 8 from Bouwens et al., the Planck Collaboration XLVII optical depth measurements and the Becker & Bolton ionizing emissivity data at z ˜ 5. We then use this constrained model to perform 21 cm forecasting for Low Frequency Array, Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array and Square Kilometre Array in order to determine how well such data can characterize the sources driving reionization. We find that the Mock 21 cm power spectrum alone can somewhat constrain the halo mass dependence of ionizing sources, the photon escape fraction and ionizing amplitude, but combining the Mock 21 cm data with other current observations enables us to separately constrain all these parameters. Our framework illustrates how the future 21 cm data can play a key role in understanding the sources and topology of reionization as observations improve.

  15. Inflation in the light of BICEP2 and PLANCK

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-13

    Jan 13, 2016 ... The BICEP2/Keck+PLANCK joint analysis of the -model polarization and polarization by foreground dust sets an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of 0.05 < 0.12 at 95% CL. The popular Starorbinsky model Higgs-inflation or the conformally equivalent Higgs-inflation model allow low values ...

  16. Constraints on Cosmological Parameters from the Angular Power Spectrum of a Combined 2500 deg$^2$ SPT-SZ and Planck Gravitational Lensing Map

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simard, G.; et al.

    2017-12-20

    We report constraints on cosmological parameters from the angular power spectrum of a cosmic microwave background (CMB) gravitational lensing potential map created using temperature data from 2500 deg$^2$ of South Pole Telescope (SPT) data supplemented with data from Planck in the same sky region, with the statistical power in the combined map primarily from the SPT data. We fit the corresponding lensing angular power spectrum to a model including cold dark matter and a cosmological constant ($\\Lambda$CDM), and to models with single-parameter extensions to $\\Lambda$CDM. We find constraints that are comparable to and consistent with constraints found using the full-sky Planck CMB lensing data. Specifically, we find $\\sigma_8 \\Omega_{\\rm m}^{0.25}=0.598 \\pm 0.024$ from the lensing data alone with relatively weak priors placed on the other $\\Lambda$CDM parameters. In combination with primary CMB data from Planck, we explore single-parameter extensions to the $\\Lambda$CDM model. We find $\\Omega_k = -0.012^{+0.021}_{-0.023}$ or $M_{\

  17. Trapped Bose-Einstein condensates with Planck-scale induced deformation of the energy-momentum dispersion relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briscese, F.

    2012-01-01

    We show that harmonically trapped Bose-Einstein condensates can be used to constrain Planck-scale physics. In particular we prove that a Planck-scale induced deformation of the Minkowski energy-momentum dispersion relation δE≃ξ 1 mcp/2M p produces a shift in the condensation temperature T c of about ΔT c /T c 0 ≃10 -6 ξ 1 for typical laboratory conditions. Such a shift allows to bound the deformation parameter up to |ξ 1 |≤10 4 . Moreover we show that it is possible to enlarge ΔT c /T c 0 and improve the bound on ξ 1 lowering the frequency of the harmonic trap. Finally we compare the Planck-scale induced shift in T c with similar effects due to interboson interactions and finite size effects.

  18. Planck early results. XIII. Statistical properties of extragalactic radio sources in the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lähteenmäki, A.; Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.

    2011-01-01

    The data reported in Planck's Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC) are exploited to measure the number counts (dN/dS) of extragalactic radio sources at 30, 44, 70, 100, 143 and 217 GHz. Due to the full-sky nature of the catalogue, this measurement extends to the rarest and brightest sou...

  19. FOKKER-PLANCK ANALYSIS OF TRANSVERSE COLLECTIVE INSTABILITIES IN ELECTRON STORAGE RINGS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindberg, R. R.

    2017-06-25

    We analyze single bunch transverse instabilities due to wakefields using a Fokker-Planck model. We expand on the work of Suzuki [1], writing out the linear matrix equation including chromaticity, both dipolar and quadrupolar transverse wakefields, and the effects of damping and diffusion due to the synchrotron radiation. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors determine the collective stability of the beam, and we show that the predicted threshold current for transverse instability and the profile of the unstable agree well with tracking simulations. In particular, we find that predicting collective stability for high energy electron beams at moderate to large values of chromaticity requires the full Fokker-Planck analysis to properly account for the effects of damping and diffusion due to synchrotron radiation.

  20. Fokker-Planck equation resolution for N variables. Application examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, A.; Garcia-Olivares, A.

    1994-01-01

    A set of problems which are reducible to Fokker-Planck equations are presented. Those problems have been solved by using the CHAPKOL library. This library of programs solves stochastic Fokker-Plank equations in one or several dimensions by using the Chapman- Kolmogorov integral. This method calculates the probability distribution at a time t + dt from a distribution given at time t through a convolution integral in which the integration is the product of the distribution function at time t and the Green function of the Fokker-Planck equation. The method have some numerical advantages when compared with finite differences algorithms. The accuracy of the method is analysed in several specific cases. (Author) 9 refs

  1. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  2. A Novel Flood Forecasting Method Based on Initial State Variable Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuang Li

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The influence of initial state variables on flood forecasting accuracy by using conceptual hydrological models is analyzed in this paper and a novel flood forecasting method based on correction of initial state variables is proposed. The new method is abbreviated as ISVC (Initial State Variable Correction. The ISVC takes the residual between the measured and forecasted flows during the initial period of the flood event as the objective function, and it uses a particle swarm optimization algorithm to correct the initial state variables, which are then used to drive the flood forecasting model. The historical flood events of 11 watersheds in south China are forecasted and verified, and important issues concerning the ISVC application are then discussed. The study results show that the ISVC is effective and applicable in flood forecasting tasks. It can significantly improve the flood forecasting accuracy in most cases.

  3. A Comparison of Cosmological Parameters Determined from CMB Temperature Power Spectra from the South Pole Telescope and the Planck Satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylor, K.; Hou, Z.; Knox, L.; Story, K. T.; Benson, B. A.; Bleem, L. E.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Chang, C. L.; Cho, H.-M.; Chown, R.; Crawford, T. M.; Crites, A. T.; de Haan, T.; Dobbs, M. A.; Everett, W. B.; George, E. M.; Halverson, N. W.; Harrington, N. L.; Holder, G. P.; Holzapfel, W. L.; Hrubes, J. D.; Keisler, R.; Lee, A. T.; Leitch, E. M.; Luong-Van, D.; Marrone, D. P.; McMahon, J. J.; Meyer, S. S.; Millea, M.; Mocanu, L. M.; Mohr, J. J.; Natoli, T.; Omori, Y.; Padin, S.; Pryke, C.; Reichardt, C. L.; Ruhl, J. E.; Sayre, J. T.; Schaffer, K. K.; Shirokoff, E.; Staniszewski, Z.; Stark, A. A.; Vanderlinde, K.; Vieira, J. D.; Williamson, R.

    2017-11-01

    The Planck cosmic microwave background temperature data are best fit with a ΛCDM model that mildly contradicts constraints from other cosmological probes. The South Pole Telescope (SPT) 2540 {\\deg }2 SPT-SZ survey offers measurements on sub-degree angular scales (multipoles 650≤slant {\\ell }≤slant 2500) with sufficient precision to use as an independent check of the Planck data. Here we build on the recent joint analysis of the SPT-SZ and Planck data in Hou et al. by comparing ΛCDM parameter estimates using the temperature power spectrum from both data sets in the SPT-SZ survey region. We also restrict the multipole range used in parameter fitting to focus on modes measured well by both SPT and Planck, thereby greatly reducing sample variance as a driver of parameter differences and creating a stringent test for systematic errors. We find no evidence of systematic errors from these tests. When we expand the maximum multipole of SPT data used, we see low-significance shifts in the angular scale of the sound horizon and the physical baryon and cold dark matter densities, with a resulting trend to higher Hubble constant. When we compare SPT and Planck data on the SPT-SZ sky patch to Planck full-sky data but keep the multipole range restricted, we find differences in the parameters n s and {A}s{e}-2τ . We perform further checks, investigating instrumental effects and modeling assumptions, and we find no evidence that the effects investigated are responsible for any of the parameter shifts. Taken together, these tests reveal no evidence for systematic errors in SPT or Planck data in the overlapping sky coverage and multipole range and at most weak evidence for a breakdown of ΛCDM or systematic errors influencing either the Planck data outside the SPT-SZ survey area or the SPT data at {\\ell }> 2000.

  4. Study on network traffic forecast model of SVR optimized by GAFSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yuan; Wang, RuiXue

    2016-01-01

    There are some problems, such as low precision, on existing network traffic forecast model. In accordance with these problems, this paper proposed the network traffic forecast model of support vector regression (SVR) algorithm optimized by global artificial fish swarm algorithm (GAFSA). GAFSA constitutes an improvement of artificial fish swarm algorithm, which is a swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with a significant effect of optimization. The optimum training parameters used for SVR could be calculated by optimizing chosen parameters, which would make the forecast more accurate. With the optimum training parameters searched by GAFSA algorithm, a model of network traffic forecast, which greatly solved problems of great errors in SVR improved by others intelligent algorithms, could be built with the forecast result approaching stability and the increased forecast precision. The simulation shows that, compared with other models (e.g. GA-SVR, CPSO-SVR), the forecast results of GAFSA-SVR network traffic forecast model is more stable with the precision improved to more than 89%, which plays an important role on instructing network control behavior and analyzing security situation.

  5. Planck intermediate results XXXIV. The magnetic field structure in the Rosette Nebula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Alves, M. I. R.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    Planck has mapped the polarized dust emission over the whole sky, making it possible to trace the Galactic magnetic field structure that pervades the interstellar medium (ISM). We combine polarization data from Planck with rotation measure (RM) observations towards a massive star-forming region, ...

  6. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  7. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  8. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  9. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  10. A dark matter component decaying after recombination: lensing constraints with Planck data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chudaykin, Anton; Gorbunov, Dmitry; Tkachev, Igor

    2016-01-01

    It was recently proposed [1] that the model with a fraction of decaying cold dark matter is able to reconcile measurements in high redshift (CMB) and low redshift (probes of cluster abundance and the Hubble constant). We check this statement employing the full likelihood of CMB Planck data. We find that the lensing effect calculated from anisotropy spectra measured by Planck imposes the strong constraint on the fraction of unstable dark matter as F < 8% (2σ). However, combining the CMB data with conflicting measurements in low redshift we obtain that the model with F ≈ 2 − 5% improves the goodness-of-fit by 1.5 − 2σ depending on A_s and τ priors in comparison with the concordance ΛCDM model

  11. Fokker-Planck equation resolution for N variables. Application examples; Aplicaciones del programa CHAPKOL para la resolucion de ecuaciones Fokker-Planck en N variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munoz, A; Garcia-Olivares, A

    1993-07-01

    A set of problems which are reducible to Fokker-Planck equations are presented. Those problems have been solved by using the CHAPKOL library. This library of programs solves stochastic Fokker-Plank equations in one or several dimensions by using the Chapman- Kolmogorov integral. This method calculates the probability distribution at a time t + dt from a distribution given at time t through a convolution integral in which the integration is the product of the distribution function at time t and the Green function of the Fokker-Planck equation. The method have some numerical advantages when compared with finite differences algorithms. The accuracy of the method is analysed in several specific cases. (Author) 9 refs.

  12. Inflation in the light of BICEP2 and PLANCK

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. The BICEP2/Keck+PLANCK joint analysis of the B-model polarization and polar- ization by foreground dust sets an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r0.05 < 0.12 at 95%. CL. The popular Starorbinsky model Higgs-inflation or the conformally equivalent Higgs-inflation model allow low r values (∼10−3).

  13. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  14. Short-term data forecasting based on wavelet transformation and chaos theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Li, Cunbin; Zhang, Liang

    2017-09-01

    A sketch of wavelet transformation and its application was given. Concerning the characteristics of time sequence, Haar wavelet was used to do data reduction. After processing, the effect of “data nail” on forecasting was reduced. Chaos theory was also introduced, a new chaos time series forecasting flow based on wavelet transformation was proposed. The largest Lyapunov exponent was larger than zero from small data sets, it verified the data change behavior still met chaotic behavior. Based on this, chaos time series to forecast short-term change behavior could be used. At last, the example analysis of the price from a real electricity market showed that the forecasting method increased the precision of the forecasting more effectively and steadily.

  15. FORECAST OF FLIGHT SEVERITY SITUATION WITH AN ENGINE FAILURE ON THE ASCENDING MANEUVERS BASED ON COMPUTATIONAL-EXPERIMENTAL DATA AND EXPERT JUDGMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Tikhonov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to an assessment of danger degree of a flight situation with the engine failure on the ascending maneuvers using natural- model approach and expert evaluation in the absence of the possibility of using a pilotage stand.

  16. New constraints on time-dependent variations of fundamental constants using Planck data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Luke; Chluba, Jens

    2018-02-01

    Observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) today allow us to answer detailed questions about the properties of our Universe, targeting both standard and non-standard physics. In this paper, we study the effects of varying fundamental constants (i.e. the fine-structure constant, αEM, and electron rest mass, me) around last scattering using the recombination codes COSMOREC and RECFAST++. We approach the problem in a pedagogical manner, illustrating the importance of various effects on the free electron fraction, Thomson visibility function and CMB power spectra, highlighting various degeneracies. We demonstrate that the simpler RECFAST++ treatment (based on a three-level atom approach) can be used to accurately represent the full computation of COSMOREC. We also include explicit time-dependent variations using a phenomenological power-law description. We reproduce previous Planck 2013 results in our analysis. Assuming constant variations relative to the standard values, we find the improved constraints αEM/αEM, 0 = 0.9993 ± 0.0025 (CMB only) and me/me, 0 = 1.0039 ± 0.0074 (including BAO) using Planck 2015 data. For a redshift-dependent variation, αEM(z) = αEM(z0) [(1 + z)/1100]p with αEM(z0) ≡ αEM, 0 at z0 = 1100, we obtain p = 0.0008 ± 0.0025. Allowing simultaneous variations of αEM(z0) and p yields αEM(z0)/αEM, 0 = 0.9998 ± 0.0036 and p = 0.0006 ± 0.0036. We also discuss combined limits on αEM and me. Our analysis shows that existing data are not only sensitive to the value of the fundamental constants around recombination but also its first time derivative. This suggests that a wider class of varying fundamental constant models can be probed using the CMB.

  17. Fokker-Planck equation in the presence of a uniform magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Chao; Zhang, Wenlu; Li, Ding

    2016-01-01

    The Fokker-Planck equation in the presence of a uniform magnetic field is derived which has the same form as the case of no magnetic field but with different Fokker-Planck coefficients. The coefficients are calculated explicitly within the binary collision model, which are free from infinite sums of Bessel functions. They can be used to investigate relaxation and transport phenomena conveniently. The kinetic equation is also manipulated into the Landau form from which it is straightforward to compare with previous results and prove the conservation laws.

  18. Fokker-Planck equation in the presence of a uniform magnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Chao, E-mail: chaodong@iphy.ac.cn [Center for Plasma Theory and Computation, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Zhang, Wenlu [Center for Plasma Theory and Computation, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Li, Ding, E-mail: dli@ustc.edu.cn [Center for Plasma Theory and Computation, Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-08-15

    The Fokker-Planck equation in the presence of a uniform magnetic field is derived which has the same form as the case of no magnetic field but with different Fokker-Planck coefficients. The coefficients are calculated explicitly within the binary collision model, which are free from infinite sums of Bessel functions. They can be used to investigate relaxation and transport phenomena conveniently. The kinetic equation is also manipulated into the Landau form from which it is straightforward to compare with previous results and prove the conservation laws.

  19. Forecasting sea fog on the coast of southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H.; Huang, B.; Liu, C.; Tu, J.; Wen, G.; Mao, W.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast sea fog is still full of challenges. We have performed the numerical forecasting of sea fog on the coast of southern China by using the operational meso-scale regional model GRAPES (Global/Regional assimilation and prediction system). The GRAPES model horizontal resolution was 3km and with 66 vertical levels. A total of 72 hours forecasting of sea fog was conducted with hourly outputs over the sea fog event. The results show that the model system can predict reasonable characteristics of typical sea fog events on the coast of southern China. The scope of sea fog coincides with the observations of meteorological stations, the observations of the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe, Maoming and satellite products of sea fog. The goal of this study is to establish an operational numerical forecasting model system of sea fog on the coast of southern China.

  20. Reply to "Comment on 'Nonparametric forecasting of low-dimensional dynamical systems' ".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Tyrus; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Harlim, John

    2016-03-01

    In this Reply we provide additional results which allow a better comparison of the diffusion forecast and the "past-noise" forecasting (PNF) approach for the El Niño index. We remark on some qualitative differences between the diffusion forecast and PNF, and we suggest an alternative use of the diffusion forecast for the purposes of forecasting the probabilities of extreme events.

  1. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  2. Maps of the Southern Millimeter-wave Sky from Combined 2500 deg$^2$ SPT-SZ and Planck Temperature Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chown, R.; et al.

    2018-03-28

    We present three maps of the millimeter-wave sky created by combining data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the Planck satellite. We use data from the SPT-SZ survey, a survey of 2540 deg$^2$ of the the sky with arcminute resolution in three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, and the full-mission Planck temperature data in the 100, 143, and 217 GHz bands. A linear combination of the SPT-SZ and Planck data is computed in spherical harmonic space, with weights derived from the noise of both instruments. This weighting scheme results in Planck data providing most of the large-angular-scale information in the combined maps, with the smaller-scale information coming from SPT-SZ data. A number of tests have been done on the maps. We find their angular power spectra to agree very well with theoretically predicted spectra and previously published results.

  3. The Fokker-Planck equation for coupled Brown-Néel-rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weizenecker, Jürgen

    2018-01-22

    Calculating the dynamic properties of magnetization of single-domain particles is of great importance for the tomographic imaging modality known as magnetic particle imaging (MPI). Although the assumption of instantaneous thermodynamic equilibrium (Langevin function) after application of time-dependent magnetic fields is sufficient for understanding the fundamental behavior, it is essential to consider the finite response times of magnetic particles for optimizing or analyzing various aspects, e.g. interpreting spectra, optimizing MPI sequences, developing new contrasts, and evaluating simplified models. The change in magnetization following the application of the fields is caused by two different movements: the geometric rotation of the particle and the rotation of magnetization with respect to the fixed particle axes. These individual rotations can be well described using the Langevin equations or the Fokker-Planck equation. However, because the two rotations generally exhibit interdependence, it is necessary to consider coupling between the two equations. This article shows how a coupled Fokker-Planck equation can be derived on the basis of coupled Langevin equations. Two physically equivalent Fokker-Planck equations are derived and transformed by means of an appropriate series expansion into a system of ordinary differential equations, which can be solved numerically. Finally, this system is also used to specify a system of differential equations for various limiting cases (Néel, Brown, uniaxial symmetry). Generally, the system exhibits a sparsely populated matrix and can therefore be handled well numerically.

  4. The Fokker-Planck equation for coupled Brown-Néel-rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weizenecker, Jürgen

    2018-02-01

    Calculating the dynamic properties of magnetization of single-domain particles is of great importance for the tomographic imaging modality known as magnetic particle imaging (MPI). Although the assumption of instantaneous thermodynamic equilibrium (Langevin function) after application of time-dependent magnetic fields is sufficient for understanding the fundamental behavior, it is essential to consider the finite response times of magnetic particles for optimizing or analyzing various aspects, e.g. interpreting spectra, optimizing MPI sequences, developing new contrasts, and evaluating simplified models. The change in magnetization following the application of the fields is caused by two different movements: the geometric rotation of the particle and the rotation of magnetization with respect to the fixed particle axes. These individual rotations can be well described using the Langevin equations or the Fokker-Planck equation. However, because the two rotations generally exhibit interdependence, it is necessary to consider coupling between the two equations. This article shows how a coupled Fokker-Planck equation can be derived on the basis of coupled Langevin equations. Two physically equivalent Fokker-Planck equations are derived and transformed by means of an appropriate series expansion into a system of ordinary differential equations, which can be solved numerically. Finally, this system is also used to specify a system of differential equations for various limiting cases (Néel, Brown, uniaxial symmetry). Generally, the system exhibits a sparsely populated matrix and can therefore be handled well numerically.

  5. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  6. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  7. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  8. On self-consistent ray-tracing and Fokker-Planck modeling of the hard X-ray emission during lower-hybrid current driven in Tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bizarro, J.P.; Peysson, Y.; Bonoli, P.T.; Carrasco, J.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Fuchs, V.; Hoang, G.T.; Litaudon, X.; Moreau, D.; Pocheau, C.; Shkarofsky, I.P.

    1993-04-01

    A detailed investigation is presented on the ability of combined ray-tracing and Fokker-Planck calculations to predict the hard x-ray (HXR) emission during lower-hybrid (LH) current drive in tokamaks when toroidally induced-ray-stochasticity is important. A large number of rays is used and the electron distribution function is obtained by self-consistently iterating the appropriate LH power deposition and Fokker-Planck calculations. Most of the experimentally observed features of the HXR emission are correctly predicted. It is found that corrections due to radial diffusion of suprathermal electrons and to radiation scattering by the inner wall can be significant

  9. Planck scale physics and topology change through an exactly solvable model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobo, Francisco S.N., E-mail: flobo@cii.fc.ul.pt [Centro de Astronomia e Astrofísica da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, Ed. C8, 1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal); Martinez-Asencio, Jesus, E-mail: jesusmartinez@ua.es [Departamento de Física Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Fase II, Universidad de Alicante, Alicante E-03690 (Spain); Olmo, Gonzalo J., E-mail: gonzalo.olmo@csic.es [Departamento de Física Teórica and IFIC, Centro Mixto Universidad de Valencia – CSIC, Universidad de Valencia, Burjassot, 46100, Valencia (Spain); Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba (Brazil); Rubiera-Garcia, D., E-mail: drubiera@fisica.ufpb.br [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 58051-900 João Pessoa, Paraíba (Brazil)

    2014-04-04

    We consider the collapse of a charged radiation fluid in a Planck-suppressed quadratic extension of General Relativity (GR) formulated à la Palatini. We obtain exact analytical solutions that extend the charged Vaidya-type solution of GR, which allows to explore in detail new physics at the Planck scale. Starting from Minkowski space, we find that the collapsing fluid generates wormholes supported by the electric field. We discuss the relevance of our findings in relation to the quantum foam structure of space–time and the meaning of curvature divergences in this theory.

  10. Planck scale physics and topology change through an exactly solvable model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobo, Francisco S.N.; Martinez-Asencio, Jesus; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2014-01-01

    We consider the collapse of a charged radiation fluid in a Planck-suppressed quadratic extension of General Relativity (GR) formulated à la Palatini. We obtain exact analytical solutions that extend the charged Vaidya-type solution of GR, which allows to explore in detail new physics at the Planck scale. Starting from Minkowski space, we find that the collapsing fluid generates wormholes supported by the electric field. We discuss the relevance of our findings in relation to the quantum foam structure of space–time and the meaning of curvature divergences in this theory.

  11. Planck early results. XII. Cluster Sunyaev-Zeldovich optical scaling relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.; Polenta, G.

    2011-01-01

    We present the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) signal-to-richness scaling relation (Y500 - N200) for the MaxBCG cluster catalogue. Employing a multi-frequency matched filter on the Planck sky maps, we measure the SZ signal for each cluster by adapting the filter according to weak-lensing calibrated mass-r...

  12. Planck 2013 results. XX. Cosmology from Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster counts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    We present constraints on cosmological parameters using number counts as a function of redshift for a sub-sample of 189 galaxy clusters from the Planck SZ (PSZ) catalogue. The PSZ is selected through the signature of the Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect, and the sub-sample used here has a signal-to-...

  13. Maximum Path Information and Fokker Planck Equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Wang A., Q.; LeMehaute, A.

    2008-04-01

    We present a rigorous method to derive the nonlinear Fokker-Planck (FP) equation of anomalous diffusion directly from a generalization of the principle of least action of Maupertuis proposed by Wang [Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 23 (2005) 1253] for smooth or quasi-smooth irregular dynamics evolving in Markovian process. The FP equation obtained may take two different but equivalent forms. It was also found that the diffusion constant may depend on both q (the index of Tsallis entropy [J. Stat. Phys. 52 (1988) 479] and the time t.

  14. A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

    2018-04-01

    Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

  15. FLYSAFE, nowcasting of in flight icing supporting aircrew decision making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouin, A.; Le Bot, C.

    2009-09-01

    FLYSAFE is an Integrated Project of the 6th framework of the European Commission with the aim to improve flight safety through the development of a Next Generation Integrated Surveillance System (NGISS). The NGISS provides information to the flight crew on the three major external hazards for aviation: weather, air traffic and terrain. The NGISS has the capability of displaying data about all three hazards on a single display screen, facilitating rapid pilot appreciation of the situation by the flight crew. Weather Information Management Systems (WIMS) were developed to provide the NGISS and the flight crew with weather related information on in-flight icing, thunderstorms, wake-vortex and clear-air turbulence. These products are generated on the ground from observations and model forecasts. WIMS supply relevant information on three different scales: global, regional and local (over airport Terminal Manoeuvring Area). Within the flysafe program, around 120 hours of flight trials were performed during February 2008 and August 2008. Two aircraft were involved each with separate objectives : - to assess FLYSAFE's innovative solutions for the data-link, on-board data fusion, data-display, and data-updates during flight; - to evaluate the new weather information management systems (in flight icing and thunderstorms) using in-situ measurements recorded on board the test aircraft. In this presentation we will focus on the in-flight icing nowcasting system developed at Météo France in the framework of FLYSAFE: the local ICE WIMS. The local ICE WIMS is based on data fusion. The most relevant information for icing detection is extracted from the numerical weather prediction model, the infra-red and visible satellite imagery and the ground weather radar reflectivities. After a presentation of the local ICE WIMS, we detail the evaluation of the local ICE WIMS performed using the winter and summer flight trial data.

  16. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  17. Simulating transient dynamics of the time-dependent time fractional Fokker-Planck systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yan-Mei

    2016-09-01

    For a physically realistic type of time-dependent time fractional Fokker-Planck (FP) equation, derived as the continuous limit of the continuous time random walk with time-modulated Boltzmann jumping weight, a semi-analytic iteration scheme based on the truncated (generalized) Fourier series is presented to simulate the resultant transient dynamics when the external time modulation is a piece-wise constant signal. At first, the iteration scheme is demonstrated with a simple time-dependent time fractional FP equation on finite interval with two absorbing boundaries, and then it is generalized to the more general time-dependent Smoluchowski-type time fractional Fokker-Planck equation. The numerical examples verify the efficiency and accuracy of the iteration method, and some novel dynamical phenomena including polarized motion orientations and periodic response death are discussed.

  18. On the retrieval of significant wave heights from spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar using the Max-Planck Institut algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Violante-Carvalho, Nelson

    2005-12-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) onboard satellites is the only source of directional wave spectra with continuous and global coverage. Millions of SAR Wave Mode (SWM) imagettes have been acquired since the launch in the early 1990's of the first European Remote Sensing Satellite ERS-1 and its successors ERS-2 and ENVISAT, which has opened up many possibilities specially for wave data assimilation purposes. The main aim of data assimilation is to improve the forecasting introducing available observations into the modeling procedures in order to minimize the differences between model estimates and measurements. However there are limitations in the retrieval of the directional spectrum from SAR images due to nonlinearities in the mapping mechanism. The Max-Planck Institut (MPI) scheme, the first proposed and most widely used algorithm to retrieve directional wave spectra from SAR images, is employed to compare significant wave heights retrieved from ERS-1 SAR against buoy measurements and against the WAM wave model. It is shown that for periods shorter than 12 seconds the WAM model performs better than the MPI, despite the fact that the model is used as first guess to the MPI method, that is the retrieval is deteriorating the first guess. For periods longer than 12 seconds, the part of the spectrum that is directly measured by SAR, the performance of the MPI scheme is at least as good as the WAM model.

  19. A Heuristic Model for the Active Galactic Nucleus Based on the Planck Vacuum Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daywitt W. C.

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The standard explanation for an active galactic nucleus (AGN is a "central engine" consisting of a hot accretion disk surrounding a supermassive black hole. Energy is generated by the gravitational infall of material which is heated to high temperatures in this dissipative accretion disk. What follows is an alternative model for the AGN based on the Planck vacuum (PV theory, where both the energy of the AGN and its variable luminosity are explained in terms of a variable photon flux emanating from the PV.

  20. Remarks on the chemical Fokker-Planck and Langevin equations: Nonphysical currents at equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, Alessandro; Frezzato, Diego

    2018-02-14

    The chemical Langevin equation and the associated chemical Fokker-Planck equation are well-known continuous approximations of the discrete stochastic evolution of reaction networks. In this work, we show that these approximations suffer from a physical inconsistency, namely, the presence of nonphysical probability currents at the thermal equilibrium even for closed and fully detailed-balanced kinetic schemes. An illustration is given for a model case.

  1. Short-Term Forecasts Using NU-WRF for the Winter Olympics 2018

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Iguchi, Takamichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Molthan, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The NASA Unified-Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) will be included for testing and evaluation in the forecast demonstration project (FDP) of the International Collaborative Experiment -PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic (ICE-POP) Winter Games. An international array of radar and supporting ground based observations together with various forecast and now-cast models will be operational during ICE-POP. In conjunction with personnel from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is developing benchmark simulations for a real-time NU-WRF configuration to run during the FDP. ICE-POP observational datasets will be used to validate model simulations and investigate improved model physics and performance for prediction of snow events during the research phase (RDP) of the project The NU-WRF model simulations will also support NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground-validation physical and direct validation activities in relation to verifying, testing and improving satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over complex terrain.

  2. Planck 2013 results. XIII. Galactic CO emission

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Alves, M.I.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J. -P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J. -F.; Catalano, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R. -R.; Chen, X.; Chiang, L. -Y; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J. -M.; Dempsey, J.T.; Desert, F. -X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Enblin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Fukui, Y.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Handa, T.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hily-Blant, P.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J. -M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M. -A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Moore, T.J.T.; Morgante, G.; Morino, J.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Nakajima, T.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Okuda, T.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Preezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J. -L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J. -L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A. -S.; Sygnet, J. -F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Thomas, H.S.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Torii, K.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yoda, H. Yamamoto T.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-10-29

    Rotational transition lines of CO play a major role in molecular radio astronomy and in particular in the study of star formation and the Galactic structure. Although a wealth of data exists in the Galactic plane and some well-known molecular clouds, there is no available CO high sensitivity all-sky survey to date. Such all-sky surveys can be constructed using the \\Planck\\ HFI data because the three lowest CO rotational transition lines at 115, 230 and 345 GHz significantly contribute to the signal of the 100, 217 and 353 GHz HFI channels respectively. Two different component separation methods are used to extract the CO maps from Planck HFI data. The maps obtained are then compared to one another and to existing external CO surveys. From these quality checks the best CO maps in terms of signal to noise and/or residual foreground contamination are selected. Three sets of velocity-integrated CO emission maps are produced: Type 1 maps of the CO (1-0), (2-1), and (3-2) rotational transitions with low foreground ...

  3. A local analytic approach for the fast solution of the Fokker-Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sajjadi, S.G.; Nicholas, D.J.

    1987-11-01

    In this report we describe a method of obtaining a closed form for the Focker-Planck equation rendering it amenable to solution in time-step with a complete hydrodynamic treatment of a plasma. We present a local expression for the heat flux, by solving the Focker-Planck equation for electrons in one space and two velocity dimensions in the presence of a self consistent electronic field. (author)

  4. On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool's Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power. (author)

  5. An Alternative Forecasting Using Holt-Winter Damped Trend for Soekarno-Hatta Airport Passenger Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arum Handini Primandari

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Located in the capital city of Indonesia, Soekarno-Hatta Airport is considered as the main airport. Since there are some aviation companies providing low cost flight, the number people coming and leaving trough this airport has increased. The passenger volume can be considered as seasonal data since it shows increment in particular months, such as long holiday. Knowing in advance the volume of passenger will help the government to improve its service effectively. There is a simple and accurate method for forecasting seasonal data that is called Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing (HWE. However, HWE always encounters over forecasting problem when it is employed to forecast in some future periods (m>1. In order to solve this problem, we add the damped parameter that will be damping the exponentially growth on HWE. This method called HWE damped trend. We employed the domestic passenger volume data of Soekarno-Hatta Airport from January 2008 till December 2015. This data collected from prior research. As the result, HWE damped trend outperforms traditional HWE on either training data set or testing data.

  6. Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on Dynamic Harmonic Regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trapero, Juan R.; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Martin, A.

    2015-01-01

    Solar power generation is a crucial research area for countries that have high dependency on fossil energy sources and is gaining prominence with the current shift to renewable sources of energy. In order to integrate the electricity generated by solar energy into the grid, solar irradiation must be reasonably well forecasted, where deviations of the forecasted value from the actual measured value involve significant costs. The present paper proposes a univariate Dynamic Harmonic Regression model set up in a State Space framework for short-term (1–24 h) solar irradiation forecasting. Time series hourly aggregated as the Global Horizontal Irradiation and the Direct Normal Irradiation will be used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method provides a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure based on the frequency domain. Furthermore, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions. The good forecasting performance is illustrated with solar irradiance measurements collected from ground-based weather stations located in Spain. The results show that the Dynamic Harmonic Regression achieves the lowest relative Root Mean Squared Error; about 30% and 47% for the Global and Direct irradiation components, respectively, for a forecast horizon of 24 h ahead. - Highlights: • Solar irradiation forecasts at short-term are required to operate solar power plants. • This paper assesses the Dynamic Harmonic Regression to forecast solar irradiation. • Models are evaluated using hourly GHI and DNI data collected in Spain. • The results show that forecasting accuracy is improved by using the model proposed

  7. On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    power dynamics. In both cases, the model parameters are adaptively and recursively estimated, time-adaptativity being the result of exponential forgetting of past observations. The probabilistic forecasting methodology is applied at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark, for 10-minute ahead probabilistic...... forecasting of wind power generation. Probabilistic forecasts generated from the proposed methodology clearly have higher skill than those obtained from a classical Gaussian assumption about wind power predictive densities. Corresponding point forecasts also exhibit significantly lower error criteria....

  8. Planck intermediate results: II. Comparison of sunyaev-zeldovich measurements from planck and from the arcminute microkelvin imager for 11 galaxy clusters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bucher, M.; Delabrouille, J.; Fromenteau, S.

    2013-01-01

    A comparison is presented of Sunyaev-Zeldovich measurements for 11 galaxy clusters as obtained by Planck and by the ground-based interferometer, the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager. Assuming a universal spherically-symmetric Generalised Navarro, Frenk and White (GNFW) model for the cluster gas press...

  9. Quantum magnification of classical sub-Planck phase space features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensinger, W.K.; Heckenberg, N.; Rubinsztein-Dunlop, H.; Delande, D.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: To understand the relationship between quantum mechanics and classical physics a crucial question to be answered is how distinct classical dynamical phase space features translate into the quantum picture. This problem becomes even more interesting if these phase space features occupy a much smaller volume than ℎ in a phase space spanned by two non-commuting variables such as position and momentum. The question whether phase space structures in quantum mechanics associated with sub-Planck scales have physical signatures has recently evoked a lot of discussion. Here we will show that sub-Planck classical dynamical phase space structures, for example regions of regular motion, can give rise to states whose phase space representation is of size ℎ or larger. This is illustrated using period-1 regions of regular motion (modes of oscillatory motion of a particle in a modulated well) whose volume is distinctly smaller than Planck's constant. They are magnified in the quantum picture and appear as states whose phase space representation is of size h or larger. Cold atoms provide an ideal test bed to probe such fundamental aspects of quantum and classical dynamics. In the experiment a Bose-Einstein condensate is loaded into a far detuned optical lattice. The lattice depth is modulated resulting in the emergence of regions of regular motion surrounded by chaotic motion in the phase space spanned by position and momentum of the atoms along the standing wave. Sub-Planck scaled phase space features in the classical phase space are magnified and appear as distinct broad peaks in the atomic momentum distribution. The corresponding quantum analysis shows states of size Ti which can be associated with much smaller classical dynamical phase space features. This effect may considered as the dynamical equivalent of the Goldstone and Jaffe theorem which predicts the existence of at least one bound state at a bend in a two or three dimensional spatial potential

  10. KiDS-450: tomographic cross-correlation of galaxy shear with Planck lensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnois-Déraps, Joachim; Tröster, Tilman; Chisari, Nora Elisa; Heymans, Catherine; van Waerbeke, Ludovic; Asgari, Marika; Bilicki, Maciej; Choi, Ami; Erben, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Hoekstra, Henk; Joudaki, Shahab; Kuijken, Konrad; Merten, Julian; Miller, Lance; Robertson, Naomi; Schneider, Peter; Viola, Massimo

    2017-10-01

    We present the tomographic cross-correlation between galaxy lensing measured in the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS-450) with overlapping lensing measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), as detected by Planck 2015. We compare our joint probe measurement to the theoretical expectation for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology, assuming the best-fitting cosmological parameters from the KiDS-450 cosmic shear and Planck CMB analyses. We find that our results are consistent within 1σ with the KiDS-450 cosmology, with an amplitude re-scaling parameter AKiDS = 0.86 ± 0.19. Adopting a Planck cosmology, we find our results are consistent within 2σ, with APlanck = 0.68 ± 0.15. We show that the agreement is improved in both cases when the contamination to the signal by intrinsic galaxy alignments is accounted for, increasing A by ∼0.1. This is the first tomographic analysis of the galaxy lensing - CMB lensing cross-correlation signal, and is based on five photometric redshift bins. We use this measurement as an independent validation of the multiplicative shear calibration and of the calibrated source redshift distribution at high redshifts. We find that constraints on these two quantities are strongly correlated when obtained from this technique, which should therefore not be considered as a stand-alone competitive calibration tool.

  11. Planck 2013 results. XXVI. Background geometry and topology of the Universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    Planck CMB temperature maps allow us to detect departures from homogeneity and isotropy on the largest scales. We search for topology with a fundamental domain (nearly) intersecting the last scattering surface (comoving distance X_r). For most topologies studied the likelihood maximized over the ...

  12. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  13. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

    1997-09-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

  14. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  15. Research on forecast technology of mine gas emission based on fuzzy data mining (FDM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chang-kai; Wang Yao-cai; Wang Jun-wei [CUMT, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electrical Engineering

    2004-07-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  16. A note on the multi model super ensemble technique for reducing forecast errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantha, L.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

    2008-01-01

    The multi model super ensemble (S E) technique has been used with considerable success to improve meteorological forecasts and is now being applied to ocean models. Although the technique has been shown to produce deterministic forecasts that can be superior to the individual models in the ensemble or a simple multi model ensemble forecast, there is a clear need to understand its strengths and limitations. This paper is an attempt to do so in simple, easily understood contexts. The results demonstrate that the S E forecast is almost always better than the simple ensemble forecast, the degree of improvement depending on the properties of the models in the ensemble. However, the skill of the S E forecast with respect to the true forecast depends on a number of factors, principal among which is the skill of the models in the ensemble. As can be expected, if the ensemble consists of models with poor skill, the S E forecast will also be poor, although better than the ensemble forecast. On the other hand, the inclusion of even a single skillful model in the ensemble increases the forecast skill significantly.

  17. A Fokker-Planck-Landau collision equation solver on two-dimensional velocity grid and its application to particle-in-cell simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, E. S.; Chang, C. S., E-mail: cschang@pppl.gov [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States); Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Yuseong-gu, DaeJeon 305-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-03-15

    An approximate two-dimensional solver of the nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Landau collision operator has been developed using the assumption that the particle probability distribution function is independent of gyroangle in the limit of strong magnetic field. The isotropic one-dimensional scheme developed for nonlinear Fokker-Planck-Landau equation by Buet and Cordier [J. Comput. Phys. 179, 43 (2002)] and for linear Fokker-Planck-Landau equation by Chang and Cooper [J. Comput. Phys. 6, 1 (1970)] have been modified and extended to two-dimensional nonlinear equation. In addition, a method is suggested to apply the new velocity-grid based collision solver to Lagrangian particle-in-cell simulation by adjusting the weights of marker particles and is applied to a five dimensional particle-in-cell code to calculate the neoclassical ion thermal conductivity in a tokamak plasma. Error verifications show practical aspects of the present scheme for both grid-based and particle-based kinetic codes.

  18. Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weide Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate electric power demand forecasting plays a key role in electricity markets and power systems. The electric power demand is usually a non-linear problem due to various unknown reasons, which make it difficult to get accurate prediction by traditional methods. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel hybrid forecasting method for managing and scheduling the electricity power. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR, the proposed new method, combines ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, seasonal adjustment (S, cross validation (C, general regression neural network (GRNN and support vector regression machine optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSVR. The main idea of EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is respectively to forecast waveform and trend component that hidden in demand series to substitute directly forecasting original electric demand. EEMD-SCGRNN-PSVR is used to predict the one week ahead half-hour’s electricity demand in two data sets (New South Wales (NSW and Victorian State (VIC in Australia. Experimental results show that the new hybrid model outperforms the other three models in terms of forecasting accuracy and model robustness.

  19. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  20. Planck 2013 results. XVII. Gravitational lensing by large-scale structure

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Dechelette, T.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Ho, S.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lavabre, A.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Pullen, A.R.; Rachen, J.P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    On the arcminute angular scales probed by Planck, the CMB anisotropies are gently perturbed by gravitational lensing. Here we present a detailed study of this effect, detecting lensing independently in the 100, 143, and 217GHz frequency bands with an overall significance of greater than 25sigma. We use the temperature-gradient correlations induced by lensing to reconstruct a (noisy) map of the CMB lensing potential, which provides an integrated measure of the mass distribution back to the CMB last-scattering surface. Our lensing potential map is significantly correlated with other tracers of mass, a fact which we demonstrate using several representative tracers of large-scale structure. We estimate the power spectrum of the lensing potential, finding generally good agreement with expectations from the best-fitting LCDM model for the Planck temperature power spectrum, showing that this measurement at z=1100 correctly predicts the properties of the lower-redshift, later-time structures which source the lensing ...

  1. Pollutant forecasting error based on persistence of wind direction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, R.E.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide a means of estimating the reliability of forecasts of downwind pollutant concentrations from atmospheric puff releases. These forecasts are based on assuming the persistence of wind direction as determined at the time of release. This initial forecast will be used to deploy survey teams, to predict population centers that may be affected, and to estimate the amount of time available for emergency response. Reliability of forecasting is evaluated by developing a cumulative probability distribution of error as a function of lapsed time following an assumed release. The cumulative error is determined by comparing the forecast pollutant concentration with the concentration measured by sampling along the real-time meteorological trajectory. It may be concluded that the assumption of meteorological persistence for emergency response is not very good for periods longer than 3 hours. Even within this period, the possibiity for large error exists due to wind direction shifts. These shifts could affect population areas totally different from those areas first indicated

  2. Fokker-Planck modeling of pitting corrosion in underground pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camacho, Eliana Nogueira [Risco Ambiental Engenharia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Melo, Paulo F. Frutuoso e [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Saldanha, Pedro Luiz C. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CGRC/CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao Geral de Reatores e Ciclo do Combustivel; Silva, Edson de Pinho da [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil). Dept. of Physics

    2011-07-01

    Full text: The stochastic nature of pitting corrosion has been recognized since the 1930s. It has been learned that this damage retains no memory of its past. Instead, the future state is determined only by the knowledge of its present state. This Markovian property that underlies the stochastic process governing pitting corrosion has been explored as a discrete Markovian process by many authors since the beginning of the 1990s for underground pipelines of the oil and gas industries and nuclear power plants. Corrosion is a genuine continuous time and space state Markovian process, so to model it as a discrete time and/or state space is an approximation to the problem. Markovian chains approaches, with an increasing number of states, could involve a large number of parameters, the transition rates between states, to be experimentally determined. Besides, such an increase in the number of states produces matrices with huge dimensions leading to time-consuming computational solutions. Recent approaches involving Markovian discrete process have overcome those difficulties but, on the other hand, a large number of soil and pipe stochastic variables have to be known. In this work we propose a continuous time and space state approach to the evolution of pit corrosion depths in underground pipelines. In order to illustrate the application of the model for defect depth growth a combination of real life data and Monte Carlo simulation was used. The process is described by a Fokker-Planck equation. The Fokker-Planck equation is completely determined by the knowledge of two functions known as the drift and diffusion coefficients. In this work we also show that those functions can be estimated from corrosion depth data from in-line inspections. Some particular forms of drift and diffusion coefficients lead to particular Fokker-Planck equations for which analytical solutions are known, as is the case for the Wiener process, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the Brownian motion

  3. Local Cloudiness Development Forecast Based on Simulation of Solid Phase Formation Processes in the Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barodka, Siarhei; Kliutko, Yauhenia; Krasouski, Alexander; Papko, Iryna; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid

    2013-04-01

    Nowadays numerical simulation of thundercloud formation processes is of great interest as an actual problem from the practical point of view. Thunderclouds significantly affect airplane flights, and mesoscale weather forecast has much to contribute to facilitate the aviation forecast procedures. An accurate forecast can certainly help to avoid aviation accidents due to weather conditions. The present study focuses on modelling of the convective clouds development and thunder clouds detection on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric processes simulation, aiming at significantly improving the aeronautical forecast. In the analysis, the primary weather radar information has been used to be further adapted for mesoscale forecast systems. Two types of domains have been selected for modelling: an internal one (with radius of 8 km), and an external one (with radius of 300 km). The internal domain has been directly applied to study the local clouds development, and the external domain data has been treated as initial and final conditions for cloud cover formation. The domain height has been chosen according to the civil aviation forecast data (i.e. not exceeding 14 km). Simulations of weather conditions and local clouds development have been made within selected domains with the WRF modelling system. In several cases, thunderclouds are detected within the convective clouds. To specify the given category of clouds, we employ a simulation technique of solid phase formation processes in the atmosphere. Based on modelling results, we construct vertical profiles indicating the amount of solid phase in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we obtain profiles demonstrating the amount of ice particles and large particles (hailstones). While simulating the processes of solid phase formation, we investigate vertical and horizontal air flows. Consequently, we attempt to separate the total amount of solid phase into categories of small ice particles, large ice particles and hailstones. Also, we

  4. Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. S.; Lisk, I.

    2015-12-01

    Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management. London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the 'VAAC Best Practice' Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.

  5. An Approach to Assess Observation Impact Based on Observation-Minus-Forecast Residuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    Langland and Baker (2004) introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived that relates changes in the aspect with changes in the initial conditions associated with the assimilation of observations) ultimately providing information about the impact of individual observations on the forecast. Some features of the approach are to be noted. The typical choice of forecast aspect employed in related works is rather arbitrary and leads to an incomplete assessment of the observing system. Furthermore, the state-space forecast aspect requires availability of a verification state that should ideally be uncorrelated with the forecast but in practice is not. Lastly, the approach involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and as such it is constrained by the validity of this operator. In this presentation, an observation-space metric is used that, for a relatively time-homogeneous observing system, allows inferring observation impact on the forecast without some of the limitations above. Specifically, using observation-minus-forecast residuals leads to an approach with the following features: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect, directly linked to the analysis system and providing full assessment of the observations; (ii) it naturally avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect by verifying against the observations; and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints; therefore being applicable to any length of forecast. The state and observation-space approaches might be complementary to some degree, and involve different limitations and complexities. Illustrations are given using the NASA GEOS-5 data.

  6. THE WIGNER–FOKKER–PLANCK EQUATION: STATIONARY STATES AND LARGE TIME BEHAVIOR

    KAUST Repository

    ARNOLD, ANTON; GAMBA, IRENE M.; GUALDANI, MARIA PIA; MISCHLER, STÉ PHANE; MOUHOT, CLEMENT; SPARBER, CHRISTOF

    2012-01-01

    solution in a weighted Sobolev space. A key ingredient of the proof is a new result on the existence of spectral gaps for FokkerPlanck type operators in certain weighted L 2-spaces. In addition we show that the steady state corresponds to a positive density

  7. The Status of Cosmic Topology after Planck Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Pierre Luminet

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last decade, the study of the overall shape of the universe, called Cosmic Topology, has become testable by astronomical observations, especially the data from the Cosmic Microwave Background (hereafter CMB obtained by WMAP and Planck telescopes. Cosmic Topology involves both global topological features and more local geometrical properties such as curvature. It deals with questions such as whether space is finite or infinite, simply-connected or multi-connected, and smaller or greater than its observable counterpart. A striking feature of some relativistic, multi-connected small universe models is to create multiples images of faraway cosmic sources. While the last CMB (Planck data fit well the simplest model of a zero-curvature, infinite space model, they remain consistent with more complex shapes such as the spherical Poincaré Dodecahedral Space, the flat hypertorus or the hyperbolic Picard horn. We review the theoretical and observational status of the field.

  8. Modelling Planck-scale Lorentz violation via analogue models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weinfurtner, Silke; Liberati, Stefano; Visser, Matt

    2006-01-01

    Astrophysical tests of Planck-suppressed Lorentz violations had been extensively studied in recent years and very stringent constraints have been obtained within the framework of effective field theory. There are however still some unresolved theoretical issues, in particular regarding the so called 'naturalness problem' - which arises when postulating that Planck suppressed Lorentz violations arise only from operators with mass dimension greater than four in the Lagrangian. In the work presented here we shall try to address this problem by looking at a condensed-matter analogue of the Lorentz violations considered in quantum gravity phenomenology. specifically, we investigate the class of two-component BECs subject to laserinduced transitions between the two components, and we show that this model is an example for Lorentz invariance violation due to ultraviolet physics. We shall show that such a model can be considered to be an explicit example high-energy Lorentz violations where the 'naturalness problem' does not arise

  9. Planck CMB Anomalies: Astrophysical and Cosmological Secondary Effects and the Curse of Masking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassat, Anais

    2016-07-01

    Large-scale anomalies have been reported in CMB data with both WMAP and Planck data. These could be due to foreground residuals and or systematic effects, though their confirmation with Planck data suggests they are not due to a problem in the WMAP or Planck pipelines. If these anomalies are in fact primordial, then understanding their origin is fundamental to either validate the standard model of cosmology or to explore new physics. We investigate three other possible issues: 1) the trade-off between minimising systematics due to foreground contamination (with a conservative mask) and minimising systematics due to masking, 2) astrophysical secondary effects (the kinetic Doppler quadrupole and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect), and 3) secondary cosmological signals (the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect). We address the masking issue by considering new procedures that use both WMAP and Planck to produce higher quality full-sky maps using the sparsity methodology (LGMCA maps). We show the impact of masking is dominant over that of residual foregrounds, and the LGMCA full-sky maps can be used without further processing to study anomalies. We consider four official Planck PR1 and two LGMCA CMB maps. Analysis of the observed CMB maps shows that only the low quadrupole and quadrupole-octopole alignment seem significant, but that the planar octopole, Axis of Evil, mirror parity and cold spot are not significant in nearly all maps considered. After subtraction of astrophysical and cosmological secondary effects, only the low quadrupole may still be considered anomalous, meaning the significance of only one anomaly is affected by secondary effect subtraction out of six anomalies considered. In the spirit of reproducible research all reconstructed maps and codes are available online.

  10. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  11. Analysis of Droplet Size during the Ice Accumulation Phase Of Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Eric James

    2004-01-01

    There are numerous hazards associated with air travel. One of the most serious dangers to the pilot and passengers safety is the result of flying into conditions which are conducive to the formation of ice on the surface of an aircraft. Being a pilot myself I am very aware of the dangers that Icing can pose and the effects it can have on an airplane. A couple of the missions of the Icing branch is to make flying safer with more research to increase our knowledge of how ice effects the aerodynamics of an airfoil, and to increase are knowledge of the weather for better forecasting. The Icing Branch uses three different tools to determine the aerodynamic affects that icing has on a wing. The Icing research tunnel is an efficient way to test various airfoils in a controlled setting. To make sure the data received from the wind tunnel is accurate the Icing branch conducts real flight tests with the DHC-6 Twin Otter. This makes sure that the methods used in the wind tunnel accurately model what happens on the actual aircraft. These two tools are also compared to the LEWICE code which is a program that models the ice shape that would be formed on an airfoil in the particular weather conditions that are input by the user. One benefit of LEWICE is that it is a lot cheaper to run than the wind tunnel or flight tests which make it a nice tool for engineers designing aircraft that don t have the money to spend on icing research. Using all three of these tools is a way to cross check the data received from one and check it against the other two. industries, but it is also looked at by weather analysts who are trying to improve forecasting methods. The best way to avoid the troubles of icing encounters is to not go into it in the first place. By looking over the flight data the analyst can determine which conditions will most likely lead to an icing encounter and then this information will aid forecasters when briefing the pilots on the weather conditions. am looking at the

  12. Dark matter implications of the WMAP-Planck Haze

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egorov, Andrey E.; Pierpaoli, Elena [University of Southern California, 3620 McClintock Ave., SGM 408, Los Angeles, CA 90089 (United States); Gaskins, Jennifer M. [California Institute of Technology, 1200 E. California Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Pietrobon, Davide, E-mail: egorov@usc.edu, E-mail: jgaskins@uva.nl, E-mail: pierpaol@usc.edu, E-mail: daddeptr@gmail.com [University of California, Berkeley, Space Sciences Laboratory, 7 Gauss Rd, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Gamma rays and microwave observations of the Galactic Center and surrounding areas indicate the presence of anomalous emission, whose origin remains ambiguous. The possibility of dark matter annihilation explaining both signals through prompt emission at gamma rays and secondary emission at microwave frequencies from interactions of high-energy electrons produced in annihilation with the Galactic magnetic fields has attracted much interest in recent years. We investigate the dark matter interpretation of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess by searching for the associated synchrotron emission in the WMAP and Planck microwave data. Considering various magnetic field and cosmic-ray propagation models, we predict the synchrotron emission due to dark matter annihilation in our Galaxy, and compare it with the WMAP and Planck data at 23–70 GHz. In addition to standard microwave foregrounds, we separately model the microwave counterpart to the Fermi Bubbles and the signal due to dark matter annihilation, and use component separation techniques to extract the signal associated with each template from the total emission. We confirm the presence of the Haze at the level of ≈7% of the total sky intensity at 23 GHz in our chosen region of interest, with a harder spectrum (I ∼ ν{sup −0.8}) than the synchrotron from regular cosmic-ray electrons. The data do not show a strong preference towards fitting the Haze by either the Bubbles or dark matter emission only. Inclusion of both components provides a better fit with a dark matter contribution to the Haze emission of ≈20% at 23 GHz, however, due to significant uncertainties in foreground modeling, we do not consider this a clear detection of a dark matter signal. We set robust upper limits on the annihilation cross section by ignoring foregrounds, and also report best-fit dark matter annihilation parameters obtained from a complete template analysis. We conclude that the WMAP and Planck data are consistent with a

  13. Dark matter implications of the WMAP-Planck Haze

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egorov, Andrey E.; Pierpaoli, Elena; Gaskins, Jennifer M.; Pietrobon, Davide

    2016-01-01

    Gamma rays and microwave observations of the Galactic Center and surrounding areas indicate the presence of anomalous emission, whose origin remains ambiguous. The possibility of dark matter annihilation explaining both signals through prompt emission at gamma rays and secondary emission at microwave frequencies from interactions of high-energy electrons produced in annihilation with the Galactic magnetic fields has attracted much interest in recent years. We investigate the dark matter interpretation of the Galactic Center gamma-ray excess by searching for the associated synchrotron emission in the WMAP and Planck microwave data. Considering various magnetic field and cosmic-ray propagation models, we predict the synchrotron emission due to dark matter annihilation in our Galaxy, and compare it with the WMAP and Planck data at 23–70 GHz. In addition to standard microwave foregrounds, we separately model the microwave counterpart to the Fermi Bubbles and the signal due to dark matter annihilation, and use component separation techniques to extract the signal associated with each template from the total emission. We confirm the presence of the Haze at the level of ≈7% of the total sky intensity at 23 GHz in our chosen region of interest, with a harder spectrum (I ∼ ν −0.8 ) than the synchrotron from regular cosmic-ray electrons. The data do not show a strong preference towards fitting the Haze by either the Bubbles or dark matter emission only. Inclusion of both components provides a better fit with a dark matter contribution to the Haze emission of ≈20% at 23 GHz, however, due to significant uncertainties in foreground modeling, we do not consider this a clear detection of a dark matter signal. We set robust upper limits on the annihilation cross section by ignoring foregrounds, and also report best-fit dark matter annihilation parameters obtained from a complete template analysis. We conclude that the WMAP and Planck data are consistent with a dark

  14. Fokker-Planck modeling of current penetration during electron cyclotron current drive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulov, A.; Westerhof, E.; Schueller, F. C.

    2007-01-01

    The current penetration during electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) on the resistive time scale is studied with a Fokker-Planck simulation, which includes a model for the magnetic diffusion that determines the parallel electric field evolution. The existence of the synergy between the inductive electric field and EC driven current complicates the process of the current penetration and invalidates the standard method of calculation in which Ohm's law is simply approximated by j-j cd =σE. Here it is proposed to obtain at every time step a self-consistent approximation to the plasma resistivity from the Fokker-Planck code, which is then used in a concurrent calculation of the magnetic diffusion equation in order to obtain the inductive electric field at the next time step. A series of Fokker-Planck calculations including a self-consistent evolution of the inductive electric field has been performed. Both the ECCD power and the electron density have been varied, thus varying the well known nonlinearity parameter for ECCD P rf [MW/m -3 ]/n e 2 [10 19 m -3 ] [R. W. Harvey et al., Phys. Rev. Lett 62, 426 (1989)]. This parameter turns out also to be a good predictor of the synergetic effects. The results are then compared with the standard method of calculations of the current penetration using a transport code. At low values of the Harvey parameter, the standard method is in quantitative agreement with Fokker-Planck calculations. However, at high values of the Harvey parameter, synergy between ECCD and E parallel is found. In the case of cocurrent drive, this synergy leads to the generation of large amounts of nonthermal electrons and a concomitant increase of the electrical conductivity and current penetration time. In the case of countercurrent drive, the ECCD efficiency is suppressed by the synergy with E parallel while only a small amount of nonthermal electrons is produced

  15. Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashrafi, S.

    1991-01-01

    The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

  16. Geomagnetic Dst index forecast based on IMF data only

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pallocchia

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In the past years several operational Dst forecasting algorithms, based on both IMF and solar wind plasma parameters, have been developed and used. We describe an Artificial Neural Network (ANN algorithm which calculates the Dst index on the basis of IMF data only and discuss its performance for several individual storms. Moreover, we briefly comment on the physical grounds which allow the Dst forecasting based on IMF only.

  17. Cosmological texture is incompatible with Planck-scale physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Watkins, R.; Widrow, L.M.; Toronto Univ., ON

    1992-01-01

    Nambu-Goldstone modes are sensitive to the effects of physics at energies comparable to the scale of spontaneous symmetry breaking. We show that as a consequence of this the global texture proposal for structure formation requires rather severe assumptions about the nature of physics at the Planck scale

  18. On finding galaxy clusters with PLANCK and the spherical collapse model in different dark energy cosmologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waizmann, Jean-Claude

    2010-11-24

    One of the main objectives of the PLANCK mission is to perform a full-sky cluster survey based on the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect, which leads to the question of how such a survey would be affected by cosmological models with a different history of structure formation than LCDM. To answer this question, I developed a fast semi-analytic approach for simulating full-sky maps of the Compton-y parameter, ready to be fed into a realistic simulation pipeline. I also implemented a filter and detection pipeline based on spherical multi-frequency matched filters, that was used to study the expected SZ cluster sample of PLANCK. It turned out that realistic samples will comprise 1000 clusters at low rate of contamination, significantly lower than originally anticipated. Driven by wrong estimates of the impact of early dark energy models on structure formation, we studied the spherical collapse model in dark energy model, finding that models with varying equation-of-state have a negligible impact on the structure formation. Yet, the different expansion history for the different models can be detected via volume effects, when counting objects in a known volume. Furthermore, it turned out that the different expansion history strongly affects the angular SZ power spectra for the various models, making them an interesting tool to distinguish and constrain alternative cosmologies. (orig.)

  19. On finding galaxy clusters with PLANCK and the spherical collapse model in different dark energy cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waizmann, Jean-Claude

    2010-01-01

    One of the main objectives of the PLANCK mission is to perform a full-sky cluster survey based on the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect, which leads to the question of how such a survey would be affected by cosmological models with a different history of structure formation than LCDM. To answer this question, I developed a fast semi-analytic approach for simulating full-sky maps of the Compton-y parameter, ready to be fed into a realistic simulation pipeline. I also implemented a filter and detection pipeline based on spherical multi-frequency matched filters, that was used to study the expected SZ cluster sample of PLANCK. It turned out that realistic samples will comprise 1000 clusters at low rate of contamination, significantly lower than originally anticipated. Driven by wrong estimates of the impact of early dark energy models on structure formation, we studied the spherical collapse model in dark energy model, finding that models with varying equation-of-state have a negligible impact on the structure formation. Yet, the different expansion history for the different models can be detected via volume effects, when counting objects in a known volume. Furthermore, it turned out that the different expansion history strongly affects the angular SZ power spectra for the various models, making them an interesting tool to distinguish and constrain alternative cosmologies. (orig.)

  20. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  1. MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST DISCLOSURE: A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EBITDA FORECAST AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Folster

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The creation of overly optimistic information can compromise the decision-making process on part of shareholders and other stakeholders. Considering that this type of information can create problems and additional costs stemming from erroneous choices made by users, the present work sought to identify financial indicators associated with the disclosure of Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA estimates in Management Earnings Forecasts (Guidance reporting. The sample examined was composed of 42 companies and analyses were carried out using logistic and multiple linear regression techniques. The results showed that larger (as per total assets and more-leveraged companies show a higher level of disclosure. Companies with higher return on equity (ROE and Current Liquidity ratios, as well as lower Net Margins, present less precise earnings forecast. The companies providing more timely forecasts are also the ones that show higher ROE and Current Liquidity ratios, as well as lower Net Margins. These results indicate that users must take caution when basing decisions on such information, given that the possibility exists that companies bearing these characteristics are more likely to better-timed albeit less-accurate disclosure.

  2. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  3. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  4. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  5. Blackbody Radiation and the Loss of Universality: Implications for Planck's Formulation and Boltzman's Constant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Through the reevaluation of Kirchhoff's law (Robitaille P.M.L. IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci., 2003, v.31(6, 1263-1267, Planck's blackbody equation (Planck M. Ann. der Physik, 1901, v.4, 553-356 loses its universal significance and becomes restricted to perfect absorbers. Consequently, the proper application of Planck's radiation law involves the study of solid opaque objects, typically made from graphite, soot, and carbon black. The extension of this equation to other materials may yield apparent temperatures, which do not have any physical meaning relative to the usual temperature scales. Real temperatures are exclusively obtained from objects which are known solids, or which are enclosed within, or in equilibrium with, a perfect absorber. For this reason, the currently accepted temperature of the microwave background must be viewed as an apparent temperature. Rectifying this situation, while respecting real temperatures, involves a reexamination of Boltzman's constant. In so doing, the latter is deprived of its universal nature and, in fact, acts as a temperature dependent variable. In its revised form, Planck's equation becomes temperature insensitive near 300K, when applied to the microwave background.

  6. Optimising Boltzmann codes for the PLANCK era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamann, Jan; Lesgourgues, Julien; Balbi, Amedeo; Quercellini, Claudia

    2009-01-01

    High precision measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies, as can be expected from the PLANCK satellite, will require high-accuracy theoretical predictions as well. One possible source of theoretical uncertainty is the numerical error in the output of the Boltzmann codes used to calculate angular power spectra. In this work, we carry out an extensive study of the numerical accuracy of the public Boltzmann code CAMB, and identify a set of parameters which determine the error of its output. We show that at the current default settings, the cosmological parameters extracted from data of future experiments like Planck can be biased by several tenths of a standard deviation for the six parameters of the standard ΛCDM model, and potentially more seriously for extended models. We perform an optimisation procedure that leads the code to achieve sufficient precision while at the same time keeping the computation time within reasonable limits. Our conclusion is that the contribution of numerical errors to the theoretical uncertainty of model predictions is well under control—the main challenges for more accurate calculations of CMB spectra will be of an astrophysical nature instead

  7. Fokker-Planck transport in solid state accelerator concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newberger, B.; Tajima, T.

    1989-01-01

    Particle transport in a crystalline solid under channeling conditions is considered by means of a Fokker-Planck description. The model includes electron multiple scattering, radiation damping and an accelerating electric field. Analytic solutions have been obtained using a harmonic potential model to describe the channeling forces. These solutions will be described

  8. Planck intermediate results: VIII. Filaments between interacting clusters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, J.G.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Castex, G.

    2013-01-01

    of a fraction of these missing baryons between pairs of galaxy clusters. Methods. Cluster pairs are good candidates for searching for the hotter and denser phase of the intergalactic medium (which is more easily observed through the SZ effect). Using an X-ray catalogue of clusters and the Planck data, we...

  9. Comparison on the forecast model of landfill surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xiaozhi; Sang Shuxun; Cao Liwen; Ji Xiaoyan

    2010-01-01

    Using four large-scale simulated landfill equipments, indoor parallel simulation landfill experiment was carried out. By monitoring the cumulative settlement of MSW, comparable researches indicate the actual effects of 'empirical model' and 'biodegradation model' on landfill surface settlement forecast, and the optimization measures are proposed on the basis of model defects analysis. Research leaded to following results: To the short-term prediction of MSW settlement, two types of models all have satisfactory predictive validity. When performing medium and long-term prediction, 'empirical model' predicted a significant deviation from the actual, and the forecasting error of 'biodegradation model' is also gradually enlarge with the extending forecast period. For optimizing these two types of model, long-term surface settlement monitoring is fundamental method, and constantly modify the model parameters is the key according to the dynamic monitoring data. (authors)

  10. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  11. The present and future of the most favoured inflationary models after Planck 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escudero, Miguel; Ramírez, Héctor; Boubekeur, Lotfi; Mena, Olga [Instituto de Física Corpuscular (IFIC), CSIC-Universitat de Valencia, Apartado de Correos 22085, E-46071 (Spain); Giusarma, Elena, E-mail: miguel.escudero@ific.uv.es, E-mail: hector.ramirez@ific.uv.es, E-mail: lboubekeur@usfq.edu.ec, E-mail: elena.giusarma@roma1.infn.it, E-mail: olga.mena@ific.uv.es [Physics Department and INFN, Università di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome (Italy)

    2016-02-01

    The value of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r in the region allowed by the latest Planck 2015 measurements can be associated to a large variety of inflationary models. We discuss here the potential of future Cosmic Microwave Background cosmological observations in disentangling among the possible theoretical scenarios allowed by our analyses of current Planck temperature and polarization data. Rather than focusing only on r, we focus as well on the running of the primordial power spectrum, α{sub s} and the running thereof, β{sub s}. If future cosmological measurements, as those from the COrE mission, confirm the current best-fit value for β{sub s} ∼> 10{sup −2} as the preferred one, it will be possible to rule-out the most favoured inflationary models.

  12. Essays on forecasting stationary and nonstationary economic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmeier, Lance Joseph

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II considers the question of whether M2 growth can be used to forecast inflation at horizons of up to ten years. A vector error correction (VEC) model serves as our benchmark model. We find that M2 growth does have marginal predictive content for inflation at horizons of more than two years, but only when allowing for cointegration and when the cointegrating rank and vector are specified a priori. When estimating the cointegration vector or failing to impose cointegration, there is no longer evidence of causality running from M2 growth to inflation at any forecast horizon. Finally, we present evidence that M2 needs to be redefined, as forecasts of the VEC model using data on M2 observed after 1993 are worse than the forecasts of an autoregressive model of inflation. Chapter III reconsiders the evidence for a "rockets and feathers" effect in gasoline markets. We estimate an error correction model of gasoline prices using daily data for the period 1985--1998 and fail to find any evidence of asymmetry. We show that previous work suffered from two problems. First, nonstationarity in some of the regressors was ignored, leading to invalid inference. Second, the weekly data used in previous work leads to a temporal aggregation problem, and thus biased estimates of impulse response functions. Chapter IV tests for a forecasting relationship between the volume of litigation and macroeconomic variables. We analyze annual data for the period 1960--2000 on the number of cases filed, real GDP, real consumption expenditures, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. Bivariate Granger causality tests show that several of the macroeconomic variables can be used to forecast the volume of litigation, but show no evidence that the volume of litigation can be used to forecast any of the macroeconomic variables. The analysis is then extended to bivariate and multivariate regression models, and we find similar evidence to that of the

  13. On practical challenges of decomposition-based hybrid forecasting algorithms for wind speed and solar irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yamin; Wu, Lei

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis on practical challenges of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based algorithms on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasts that have been largely neglected in literature, and proposes an alternative approach to mitigate such challenges. Specifically, the challenges are: (1) Decomposed sub-series are very sensitive to the original time series data. That is, sub-series of the new time series, consisting of the original one plus a limit number of new data samples, may significantly differ from those used in training forecasting models. In turn, forecasting models established by original sub-series may not be suitable for newly decomposed sub-series and have to be trained more frequently; and (2) Key environmental factors usually play a critical role in non-decomposition based methods for forecasting wind speed and solar irradiation. However, it is difficult to incorporate such critical environmental factors into forecasting models of individual decomposed sub-series, because the correlation between the original data and environmental factors is lost after decomposition. Numerical case studies on wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting show that the performance of existing EMD-based forecasting methods could be worse than the non-decomposition based forecasting model, and are not effective in practical cases. Finally, the approximated forecasting model based on EMD is proposed to mitigate the challenges and achieve better forecasting results than existing EMD-based forecasting algorithms and the non-decomposition based forecasting models on practical wind speed and solar irradiation forecasting cases. - Highlights: • Two challenges of existing EMD-based forecasting methods are discussed. • Significant changes of sub-series in each step of the rolling forecast procedure. • Difficulties in incorporating environmental factors into sub-series forecasting models. • The approximated forecasting method is proposed to

  14. Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Balanced KNN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xianlong; Cheng, Xingong; YanShuang; Tang, Yan-mei

    2018-03-01

    To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a short-term load forecasting model based on balanced KNN algorithm is proposed; According to the load characteristics, the historical data of massive power load are divided into scenes by the K-means algorithm; In view of unbalanced load scenes, the balanced KNN algorithm is proposed to classify the scene accurately; The local weighted linear regression algorithm is used to fitting and predict the load; Adopting the Apache Hadoop programming framework of cloud computing, the proposed algorithm model is parallelized and improved to enhance its ability of dealing with massive and high-dimension data. The analysis of the household electricity consumption data for a residential district is done by 23-nodes cloud computing cluster, and experimental results show that the load forecasting accuracy and execution time by the proposed model are the better than those of traditional forecasting algorithm.

  15. Cosmological constant in SUGRA models with Planck scale SUSY breaking and degenerate vacua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froggatt, C.D.; Nevzorov, R.; Nielsen, H.B.; Thomas, A.W.

    2014-01-01

    The empirical mass of the Higgs boson suggests small to vanishing values of the quartic Higgs self-coupling and the corresponding beta function at the Planck scale, leading to degenerate vacua. This leads us to suggest that the measured value of the cosmological constant can originate from supergravity (SUGRA) models with degenerate vacua. This scenario is realised if there are at least three exactly degenerate vacua. In the first vacuum, associated with the physical one, local supersymmetry (SUSY) is broken near the Planck scale while the breakdown of the SU(2) W ×U(1) Y symmetry takes place at the electroweak (EW) scale. In the second vacuum local SUSY breaking is induced by gaugino condensation at a scale which is just slightly lower than Λ QCD in the physical vacuum. Finally, in the third vacuum local SUSY and EW symmetry are broken near the Planck scale

  16. Planck CMB anomalies: astrophysical and cosmological secondary effects and the curse of masking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rassat, A.; Starck, J.-L.; Paykari, P.; Sureau, F.; Bobin, J.

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale anomalies have been reported in CMB data with both WMAP and Planck data. These could be due to foreground residuals and or systematic effects, though their confirmation with Planck data suggests they are not due to a problem in the WMAP or Planck pipelines. If these anomalies are in fact primordial, then understanding their origin is fundamental to either validate the standard model of cosmology or to explore new physics. We investigate three other possible issues: 1) the trade-off between minimising systematics due to foreground contamination (with a conservative mask) and minimising systematics due to masking, 2) astrophysical secondary effects (the kinetic Doppler quadrupole and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect), and 3) secondary cosmological signals (the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect). We address the masking issue by considering new procedures that use both WMAP and Planck to produce higher quality full-sky maps using the sparsity methodology (LGMCA maps). We show the impact of masking is dominant over that of residual foregrounds, and the LGMCA full-sky maps can be used without further processing to study anomalies. We consider four official Planck PR1 and two LGMCA CMB maps. Analysis of the observed CMB maps shows that only the low quadrupole and quadrupole-octopole alignment seem significant, but that the planar octopole, Axis of Evil, mirror parity and cold spot are not significant in nearly all maps considered. After subtraction of astrophysical and cosmological secondary effects, only the low quadrupole may still be considered anomalous, meaning the significance of only one anomaly is affected by secondary effect subtraction out of six anomalies considered. In the spirit of reproducible research all reconstructed maps and codes will be made available for download here http://www.cosmostat.org/anomaliesCMB.html

  17. Planck CMB anomalies: astrophysical and cosmological secondary effects and the curse of masking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rassat, A. [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique (LASTRO), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), 51 Chemin des Maillettes, Observatoire de Sauverny, Versoix, CH-1290 (Switzerland); Starck, J.-L.; Paykari, P.; Sureau, F.; Bobin, J., E-mail: anais.rassat@epfl.ch, E-mail: jstarck@cea.fr, E-mail: paniez.paykari@cea.fr, E-mail: florent.sureau@cea.fr, E-mail: jbobin@cea.fr [Laboratoire AIM, UMR CEA-CNRS-Paris, Irfu, SAp, CEA Saclay, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, F-91191 France (France)

    2014-08-01

    Large-scale anomalies have been reported in CMB data with both WMAP and Planck data. These could be due to foreground residuals and or systematic effects, though their confirmation with Planck data suggests they are not due to a problem in the WMAP or Planck pipelines. If these anomalies are in fact primordial, then understanding their origin is fundamental to either validate the standard model of cosmology or to explore new physics. We investigate three other possible issues: 1) the trade-off between minimising systematics due to foreground contamination (with a conservative mask) and minimising systematics due to masking, 2) astrophysical secondary effects (the kinetic Doppler quadrupole and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect), and 3) secondary cosmological signals (the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect). We address the masking issue by considering new procedures that use both WMAP and Planck to produce higher quality full-sky maps using the sparsity methodology (LGMCA maps). We show the impact of masking is dominant over that of residual foregrounds, and the LGMCA full-sky maps can be used without further processing to study anomalies. We consider four official Planck PR1 and two LGMCA CMB maps. Analysis of the observed CMB maps shows that only the low quadrupole and quadrupole-octopole alignment seem significant, but that the planar octopole, Axis of Evil, mirror parity and cold spot are not significant in nearly all maps considered. After subtraction of astrophysical and cosmological secondary effects, only the low quadrupole may still be considered anomalous, meaning the significance of only one anomaly is affected by secondary effect subtraction out of six anomalies considered. In the spirit of reproducible research all reconstructed maps and codes will be made available for download here http://www.cosmostat.org/anomaliesCMB.html.

  18. 14 CFR 91.151 - Fuel requirements for flight in VFR conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... begin a flight in an airplane under VFR conditions unless (considering wind and forecast weather conditions) there is enough fuel to fly to the first point of intended landing and, assuming normal cruising speed— (1) During the day, to fly after that for at least 30 minutes; or (2) At night, to fly after that...

  19. Planck Constant Determination from Power Equivalence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, David B.

    2000-04-01

    Equating mechanical to electrical power links the kilogram, the meter, and the second to the practical realizations of the ohm and the volt derived from the quantum Hall and the Josephson effects, yielding an SI determination of the Planck constant. The NIST watt balance uses this power equivalence principle, and in 1998 measured the Planck constant with a combined relative standard uncertainty of 8.7 x 10-8, the most accurate determination to date. The next generation of the NIST watt balance is now being assembled. Modification to the experimental facilities have been made to reduce the uncertainty components from vibrations and electromagnetic interference. A vacuum chamber has been installed to reduce the uncertainty components associated with performing the experiment in air. Most of the apparatus is in place and diagnostic testing of the balance should begin this year. Once a combined relative standard uncertainty of one part in 10-8 has been reached, the power equivalence principle can be used to monitor the possible drift in the artifact mass standard, the kilogram, and provide an accurate alternative definition of mass in terms of fundamental constants. *Electricity Division, Electronics and Electrical Engineering Laboratory, Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. Contribution of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, not subject to copyright in the U.S.

  20. Low and high scale MSSM inflation, gravitational waves and constraints from Planck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, Sayantan; Pal, Supratik; Mazumdar, Anupam

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we will analyze generic predictions of an inflection-point model of inflation with Hubble-induced corrections and study them in light of the Planck data. Typically inflection-point models of inflation can be embedded within Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) where inflation can occur below the Planck scale. The flexibility of the potential allows us to match the observed amplitude of the TT-power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation with low and high multipoles, spectral tilt, and virtually mild running of the spectral tilt, which can put a bound on an upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r ≤ 0.12. Since the inflaton within MSSM carries the Standard Model charges, therefore it is the minimal model of inflation beyond the Standard Model which can reheat the universe with the right thermal degrees of freedom without any dark-radiation

  1. Generation Mix Study Focusing on Nuclear Power by Practical Peak Forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jung Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    The excessive underestimation can lead to a range of problem; expansion of LNG plant requiring short construction period, the following increase of electricity price, low reserve margin and inefficient configuration of power source. With regard to nuclear power, the share of the stable and economic base load plant, nuclear power, can reduce under the optimum level. Amongst varied factors which contribute to the underestimate, immoderate target for demand side management (DSM) including double deduction of the constraint amount by DSM from peak demand forecast is one of the causes. The hypothesis in this study is that the better optimum generation mix including the adequate share of nuclear power can be obtained under the condition of the peak demand forecast without deduction of DSM target because this forecast is closer to the actual peak demand. In this study, the hypothesis is verified with comparison between peak demand forecast before (or after) DSM target application and the actual peak demand in the 3 rd through 5 th BPE from 2006 to 2010. Furthermore, this research compares and analyzes several generation mix in 2027 focusing on the nuclear power by a few conditions using the WASP-IV program on the basis of the 6 th BPE in 2013. According to the comparative analysis on the peak demand forecast and actual peak demand from 2006 to 2010, the peak demand forecasts without the deduction of the DSM target is closer to the actual peak demand than the peak demand forecasts considering the DSM target in the 3 th , 4 th , 5 th entirely. In addition, the generation mix until 2027 is examined by the WASP-IV. As a result of the program run, when considering the peak demand forecast without DSM reflection, since the base load plants including nuclear power take up adequate proportion, stable and economic supply of electricity can be achieved. On the contrary, in case of planning based on the peak demand forecast with DSM reflected and then compensating the shortage by

  2. General quadrupolar statistical anisotropy: Planck limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramazanov, S. [Gran Sasso Science Institute (INFN), Viale Francesco Crispi 7, I-67100 L' Aquila (Italy); Rubtsov, G. [Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Prospect of the 60th Anniversary of October 7a, 117312 Moscow (Russian Federation); Thorsrud, M. [Faculty of Engineering, Østfold University College, P.O. Box 700, 1757 Halden (Norway); Urban, F.R., E-mail: sabir.ramazanov@gssi.infn.it, E-mail: grisha@ms2.inr.ac.ru, E-mail: mikjel.thorsrud@hiof.no, E-mail: federico.urban@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2017-03-01

    Several early Universe scenarios predict a direction-dependent spectrum of primordial curvature perturbations. This translates into the violation of the statistical isotropy of cosmic microwave background radiation. Previous searches for statistical anisotropy mainly focussed on a quadrupolar direction-dependence characterised by a single multipole vector and an overall amplitude g {sub *}. Generically, however, the quadrupole has a more complicated geometry described by two multipole vectors and g {sub *}. This is the subject of the present work. In particular, we limit the amplitude g {sub *} for different shapes of the quadrupole by making use of Planck 2015 maps. We also constrain certain inflationary scenarios which predict this kind of more general quadrupolar statistical anisotropy.

  3. Planck intermediate results. VI. The dynamical structure of PLCKG214.6+37.0, a Planck discovered triple system of galaxy clusters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Planck Collaboration, [Unknown; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Balbi, A.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bhatia, R.; Bikmaev, I.; Böhringer, H.; Bonaldi, A.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Bourdin, H.; Burenin, R.; Burigana, C.; Cabella, P.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Castex, G.; Catalano, A.; Cayón, L.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.-Y.; Chon, G.; Christensen, P. R.; Clements, D. L.; Colafrancesco, S.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Comis, B.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Cuttaia, F.; Da Silva, A.; Dahle, H.; Danese, L.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Gasperis, G.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Démoclès, J.; Diego, J. M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Dörl, U.; Douspis, M.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Flores-Cacho, I.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Franceschi, E.; Frommert, M.; Galeotta, S.; Ganga, K.; Génova-Santos, R. T.; Giard, M.; Gilfanov, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Hansen, F. K.; Harrison, D.; Heinämäki, P.; Hempel, A.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jagemann, T.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Khamitov, I.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lawrence, C. R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leonardi, R.; Lilje, P. B.; López-Caniego, M.; Luzzi, G.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Maris, M.; Marleau, F.; Marshall, D. J.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; Mei, S.; Melchiorri, A.; Melin, J.-B.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Osborne, S.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Piffaretti, R.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G. W.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Roman, M.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Smoot, G. F.; Starck, J.-L.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Welikala, N.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zaroubi, S.; Zonca, A.

    The survey of galaxy clusters performed by Planck through the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect has already discovered many interesting objects, thanks to its full sky coverage. One of the SZ candidates detected inthe early months of the mission near to the signal-to-noise threshold, PLCKG214.6+37.0, was

  4. Combined time-varying forecast based on the proper scoring approach for wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Xingying; Jiang, Yu; Yu, Kun

    2017-01-01

    Compared with traditional point forecasts, combined forecast have been proposed as an effective method to provide more accurate forecasts than individual model. However, the literature and research focus on wind-power combined forecasts are relatively limited. Here, based on forecasting error...... distribution, a proper scoring approach is applied to combine plausible models to form an overall time-varying model for the next day forecasts, rather than weights-based combination. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, real data of 3 years were used for testing. Simulation results...... demonstrate that the proposed method improves the accuracy of overall forecasts, even compared with a numerical weather prediction....

  5. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  6. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  7. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  8. On robust forecasting of autoregressive time series under censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Kharin, Y.; Badziahin, I.

    2009-01-01

    Problems of robust statistical forecasting are considered for autoregressive time series observed under distortions generated by interval censoring. Three types of robust forecasting statistics are developed; meansquare risk is evaluated for the developed forecasting statistics. Numerical results are given.

  9. Measurement and simulation of the in-flight radiation exposure on different air routes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hajek, M.; Berger, T.; Vana, N.

    2003-01-01

    The exposure of air-crew personnel to cosmic radiation is considered to be occupational exposure and requirements for dose assessment are given in the European Council Directive 96/29/EURATOM. The High-Temperature Ratio (HTR) Method for LiF: Mg, Ti TLDs utilizes the well-investigated relative intensity of the combined high-temperature glow peaks 6 and 7 compared with the dominant peak 5 (left-hand side of Figure 1) as an indication of the dose-average LET of a mixed radiation field of unknown composition. The difference in the peak-5 readings of the neutron-sensitive TLD-600 ( 6 LiF: Mg, Ti) and the neutron-insensitive TLD-700 ( 7 LiF: Mg, Ti) can be utilized to assess the neutron dose equivalent accumulated in-flight. For this purpose, the dosemeter crystals were calibrated individually in the CERN-EU High Energy Reference Field (CERF) [8] which simulates the cosmic-ray induced neutron spectrum in good detail. The experiments conducted onboard passenger aircraft on different north-bound and trans-equatorial flight routes were aimed at the following: to measure the total dose equivalent accumulated during the flight, to assess the contribution of neutrons, and to compare the results with calculations by means of the well-known CARI computer code. Measurements were performed on a series of eight north-bound flights between Cologne and Washington as well as on the routes Vienna-Atlanta, Vienna-Sydney and Vienna-Tokyo during different solar activity conditions. Precise altitude and route profiles were recorded by the pilots. The experimental results were compared with model calculations using the latest release 6M of the CARI code. Precise altitude and route data on a ten-minute to one-hour scale were taken as input. The calculated dose values indicate that the algorithms employed for the computational assessment of route doses have been significantly improved during the last decade. The CARI results generally tend to be in reasonable agreement with the measured

  10. Newton's 'Principia Mathematica Philosophia' and Planck's elementary constants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rompe, R.; Treder, H.J.

    1987-01-01

    Together with Planck's elementary constants Newton's principles prove a guaranteed basis of physics and 'exact' sciences of all directions. The conceptions in physics are competent at all physical problems as well as technology too. Classical physics was founded in such a way to reach far beyond the physics of macroscopic bodies. (author)

  11. On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United...

  12. Planck pre-launch status: The Planck mission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tauber, J. A.; Mandoles, N.; Puget, J.-L.

    2010-01-01

    instruments, and of tests at fully integrated satellite level. It represents the best estimate before launch of the technical performance that the satellite and its payload will achieve in flight. In this paper, we summarise the main elements of the payload performance, which is described in detail...

  13. On the relation between forecast precision and trading profitability of financial analysts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinelli, Carlo; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the relation between earnings forecast accuracy and the expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate normal distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the ......We analyze the relation between earnings forecast accuracy and the expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate normal distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions...... for the probability density function, for the expectation, and, more generally, for moments of all orders are obtained. Our analysis shows that the relationship between forecast precision and trading profitability needs not be monotonic, and that the impact of the correlation between the forecasts on the expected...

  14. Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, A.; Limaye, A. S.

    2011-12-01

    Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula's "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA's SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT's experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by

  15. MODELING THERMAL DUST EMISSION WITH TWO COMPONENTS: APPLICATION TO THE PLANCK HIGH FREQUENCY INSTRUMENT MAPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meisner, Aaron M.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

    2015-01-01

    We apply the Finkbeiner et al. two-component thermal dust emission model to the Planck High Frequency Instrument maps. This parameterization of the far-infrared dust spectrum as the sum of two modified blackbodies (MBBs) serves as an important alternative to the commonly adopted single-MBB dust emission model. Analyzing the joint Planck/DIRBE dust spectrum, we show that two-component models provide a better fit to the 100-3000 GHz emission than do single-MBB models, though by a lesser margin than found by Finkbeiner et al. based on FIRAS and DIRBE. We also derive full-sky 6.'1 resolution maps of dust optical depth and temperature by fitting the two-component model to Planck 217-857 GHz along with DIRBE/IRAS 100 μm data. Because our two-component model matches the dust spectrum near its peak, accounts for the spectrum's flattening at millimeter wavelengths, and specifies dust temperature at 6.'1 FWHM, our model provides reliable, high-resolution thermal dust emission foreground predictions from 100 to 3000 GHz. We find that, in diffuse sky regions, our two-component 100-217 GHz predictions are on average accurate to within 2.2%, while extrapolating the Planck Collaboration et al. single-MBB model systematically underpredicts emission by 18.8% at 100 GHz, 12.6% at 143 GHz, and 7.9% at 217 GHz. We calibrate our two-component optical depth to reddening, and compare with reddening estimates based on stellar spectra. We find the dominant systematic problems in our temperature/reddening maps to be zodiacal light on large angular scales and the cosmic infrared background anisotropy on small angular scales

  16. Planck 2015 results: XXI. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect from the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data release. This secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy caused by the large-scale time-evolving gravitational potential is probed from different perspectives....

  17. Planck intermediate results: XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, J.G.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Delabrouille, J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the CDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agr...

  18. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tauber, Jan; Bartlett, J.G.; Bucher, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the Planck 2013 likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations that accounts for all known relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. We use this likelihood to derive our best...

  19. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  20. (Lack of) Cosmological evidence for dark radiation after Planck

    CERN Document Server

    Verde, Licia; Mortlock, Daniel J; Peiris, Hiranya V

    2013-01-01

    We use Bayesian model comparison to determine whether extensions to Standard-Model neutrino physics -- primarily additional effective numbers of neutrinos and/or massive neutrinos -- are merited by the latest cosmological data. Given the significant advances in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations represented by the Planck data, we examine whether Planck temperature and CMB lensing data, in combination with lower redshift data, have strengthened (or weakened) the previous findings. We conclude that the state-of-the-art cosmological data do not show evidence for deviations from the standard cosmological model (which has three massless neutrino families). This does not mean that the model is necessarily correct -- in fact we know it is incomplete as neutrinos are not massless -- but it does imply that deviations from the standard model (e.g., non-zero neutrino mass) are too small compared to the current experimental uncertainties to be inferred from cosmological data alone.

  1. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  2. Generalized multivariate Fokker-Planck equations derived from kinetic transport theory and linear nonequilibrium thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T.D.

    2002-01-01

    We study many particle systems in the context of mean field forces, concentration-dependent diffusion coefficients, generalized equilibrium distributions, and quantum statistics. Using kinetic transport theory and linear nonequilibrium thermodynamics we derive for these systems a generalized multivariate Fokker-Planck equation. It is shown that this Fokker-Planck equation describes relaxation processes, has stationary maximum entropy distributions, can have multiple stationary solutions and stationary solutions that differ from Boltzmann distributions

  3. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  4. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haixiang Zang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.

  5. Spatial forecast of landslides in three gorges based on spatial data mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianmin; Niu, Ruiqing

    2009-01-01

    The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc). China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers) images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County) in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

  6. Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya’nan Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy sets theory cannot describe the data comprehensively, which has greatly limited the objectivity of fuzzy time series in uncertain data forecasting. In this regard, an intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model is built. In the new model, a fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to divide the universe of discourse into unequal intervals, and a more objective technique for ascertaining the membership function and nonmembership function of the intuitionistic fuzzy set is proposed. On these bases, forecast rules based on intuitionistic fuzzy approximate reasoning are established. At last, contrast experiments on the enrollments of the University of Alabama and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index are carried out. The results show that the new model has a clear advantage of improving the forecast accuracy.

  7. Fuzzy forecasting based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Wang, Nai-Yi

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, we present a new method to predict the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) based on fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups (FTLRGs). The proposed method divides fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs based on the trend of adjacent fuzzy sets appearing in the antecedents of fuzzy logical relationships. First, we apply an automatic clustering algorithm to cluster the historical data into intervals of different lengths. Then, we define fuzzy sets based on these intervals of different lengths. Then, the historical data are fuzzified into fuzzy sets to derive fuzzy logical relationships. Then, we divide the fuzzy logical relationships into FTLRGs for forecasting the TAIEX. Moreover, we also apply the proposed method to forecast the enrollments and the inventory demand, respectively. The experimental results show that the proposed method gets higher average forecasting accuracy rates than the existing methods.

  8. Fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck Model for Ion Channels I: Basic Formulations and Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Duan

    2017-11-01

    In this work, we propose a fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck model to describe ion permeation in gated ion channels. Due to the intrinsic conformational changes, crowdedness in narrow channel pores, binding and trapping introduced by functioning units of channel proteins, ionic transport in the channel exhibits a power-law-like anomalous diffusion dynamics. We start from continuous-time random walk model for a single ion and use a long-tailed density distribution function for the particle jump waiting time, to derive the fractional Fokker-Planck equation. Then, it is generalized to the macroscopic fractional Poisson-Nernst-Planck model for ionic concentrations. Necessary computational algorithms are designed to implement numerical simulations for the proposed model, and the dynamics of gating current is investigated. Numerical simulations show that the fractional PNP model provides a more qualitatively reasonable match to the profile of gating currents from experimental observations. Meanwhile, the proposed model motivates new challenges in terms of mathematical modeling and computations.

  9. Planck intermediate results XXIX. All-sky dust modelling with Planck, IRAS, and WISE observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Alves, M. I. R.

    2016-01-01

    We present all-sky modelling of the high resolution Planck, IRAS, andWISE infrared (IR) observations using the physical dust model presented by Draine & Li in 2007 (DL, ApJ, 657, 810). We study the performance and results of this model, and discuss implications for future dust modelling....... The present work extends the DL dust modelling carried out on nearby galaxies using Herschel and Spitzer data to Galactic dust emission. We employ the DL dust model to generate maps of the dust mass surface density Sigma(Md), the dust optical extinction A(V), and the starlight intensity heating the bulk...... of the dust, parametrized by U-min. The DL model reproduces the observed spectral energy distribution (SED) satisfactorily over most of the sky, with small deviations in the inner Galactic disk and in low ecliptic latitude areas, presumably due to zodiacal light contamination. In the Andromeda galaxy (M31...

  10. Planck 2013 results. VII. HFI time response and beams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Planck Collaboration,; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.

    2013-01-01

    This paper characterizes the effective beams, the effective beam window functions (EBWF) and the associated errors for the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) detectors. The effective beam is the angular response including the effect of the optics, detectors, data processing and the scan strat...

  11. Planck 2013 results. XIX. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2014-01-01

    they can be compared, these measurements are compatible with previous work using data from WMAP, where these scales have been mapped to the limits of cosmic variance. Planck's broader frequency coverage allows for better foreground cleaning and confirms that the signal is achromatic, which makes...

  12. Sensor development at the semiconductor laboratory of the Max-Planck-Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bähr, A.; Lechner, P.; Ninkovic, J.

    2017-12-01

    For more than twenty years the semiconductor laboratory of the Max-Planck Society (MPG-HLL) is developing high-performing, specialised, scientific silicon sensors including the integration of amplifying electronics on the sensor chip. This paper summarises the actual status of these devices like pnCCDs and DePFET Active Pixel Sensors and their applications.

  13. Quantum dynamics via Planck-scale-stepped action-carrying 'Graph Paths'

    CERN Document Server

    Chew, Geoffrey Foucar

    2003-01-01

    A divergence-free, parameter-free, path-based discrete-time quantum dynamics is designed to not only enlarge the achievements of general relativity and the standard particle model, by approximations at spacetime scales far above Planck scale while far below Hubble scale, but to allow tackling of hitherto inaccessible questions. ''Path space'' is larger than and precursor to Hilbert-space basis. The wave-function-propagating paths are action-carrying structured graphs-cubic and quartic structured vertices connected by structured ''fermionic'' or ''bosonic'' ''particle'' and ''nonparticle'' arcs. A Planck-scale path step determines the gravitational constant while controlling all graph structure. The basis of the theory's (zero-rest-mass) elementary-particle Hilbert space (which includes neither gravitons nor scalar bosons) resides in particle arcs. Nonparticle arcs within a path are responsible for energy and rest mass.

  14. FIFPC, a fast ion Fokker--Planck code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fowler, R.H.; Callen, J.D.; Rome, J.A.; Smith, J.

    1976-07-01

    A computer code is described which solves the Fokker--Planck equation for the velocity space distribution of fast ions injected into a tokamak plasma. The numerical techniques are described and use of the code is outlined. The program is written in FORTRAN IV and is modularized in order to provide greater flexibility to the user. A program listing is provided and the results of sample cases are presented

  15. Candidate high-z protoclusters among the Planck compact sources, as revealed by Herschel-SPIRE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenslade, J.; Clements, D. L.; Cheng, T.; De Zotti, G.; Scott, D.; Valiante, E.; Eales, S.; Bremer, M. N.; Dannerbauer, H.; Birkinshaw, M.; Farrah, D.; Harrison, D. L.; Michałowski, M. J.; Valtchanov, I.; Oteo, I.; Baes, M.; Cooray, A.; Negrello, M.; Wang, L.; van der Werf, P.; Dunne, L.; Dye, S.

    2018-05-01

    By determining the nature of all the Planck compact sources within 808.4 deg2 of large Herschel surveys, we have identified 27 candidate protoclusters of dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs) that are at least 3σ overdense in either 250, 350, or 500 μm sources. We find roughly half of all the Planck compact sources are resolved by Herschel into multiple discrete objects, with the other half remaining unresolved by Herschel. We find a significant difference between versions of the Planck catalogues, with earlier releases hosting a larger fraction of candidate protoclusters and Galactic cirrus than later releases, which we ascribe to a difference in the filters used in the creation of the three catalogues. We find a surface density of DSFG candidate protoclusters of (3.3 ± 0.7) × 10-2 sources deg-2, in good agreement with previous similar studies. We find that a Planck colour selection of S857/S545 1. Our candidate protoclusters are a factor of 5 times brighter at 353 GHz than expected from simulations, even in the most conservative estimates. Further observations are needed to confirm whether these candidate protoclusters are physical clusters, multiple protoclusters along the line of sight, or chance alignments of unassociated sources.

  16. Planck early results. XVIII. The power spectrum of cosmic infrared background anisotropies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poutanen, T.; Natoli, P.; Polenta, G.

    2011-01-01

    Using Planck maps of six regions of low Galactic dust emission with a total area of about 140 deg2, we determine the angular power spectra of cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies from multipole = 200 to = 2000 at 217, 353, 545 and 857 GHz. We use 21-cm observations of Hi as a tracer...... of thermal dust emission to reduce the already low level of Galactic dust emission and use the 143 GHz Planck maps in these fields to clean out cosmic microwave background anisotropies. Both of these cleaning processes are necessary to avoid significant contamination of the CIB signal. We measure correlated...

  17. SOFT project: a new forecasting system based on satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual, Ananda; Orfila, A.; Alvarez, Alberto; Hernandez, E.; Gomis, D.; Barth, Alexander; Tintore, Joaquim

    2002-01-01

    The aim of the SOFT project is to develop a new ocean forecasting system by using a combination of satellite dat, evolutionary programming and numerical ocean models. To achieve this objective two steps are proved: (1) to obtain an accurate ocean forecasting system using genetic algorithms based on satellite data; and (2) to integrate the above new system into existing deterministic numerical models. Evolutionary programming will be employed to build 'intelligent' systems that, learning form the past ocean variability and considering the present ocean state, will be able to infer near future ocean conditions. Validation of the forecast skill will be carried out by comparing the forecasts fields with satellite and in situ observations. Validation with satellite observations will provide the expected errors in the forecasting system. Validation with in situ data will indicate the capabilities of the satellite based forecast information to improve the performance of the numerical ocean models. This later validation will be accomplished considering in situ measurements in a specific oceanographic area at two different periods of time. The first set of observations will be employed to feed the hybrid systems while the second set will be used to validate the hybrid and traditional numerical model results.

  18. Cusping, transport and variance of solutions to generalized Fokker-Planck equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnaffan, Sean; Kawai, Reiichiro

    2017-06-01

    We study properties of solutions to generalized Fokker-Planck equations through the lens of the probability density functions of anomalous diffusion processes. In particular, we examine solutions in terms of their cusping, travelling wave behaviours, and variance, within the framework of stochastic representations of generalized Fokker-Planck equations. We give our analysis in the cases of anomalous diffusion driven by the inverses of the stable, tempered stable and gamma subordinators, demonstrating the impact of changing the distribution of waiting times in the underlying anomalous diffusion model. We also analyse the cases where the underlying anomalous diffusion contains a Lévy jump component in the parent process, and when a diffusion process is time changed by an uninverted Lévy subordinator. On the whole, we present a combination of four criteria which serve as a theoretical basis for model selection, statistical inference and predictions for physical experiments on anomalously diffusing systems. We discuss possible applications in physical experiments, including, with reference to specific examples, the potential for model misclassification and how combinations of our four criteria may be used to overcome this issue.

  19. Collective motions and non-polynomial lagrangians in Fokker-Planck dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spina, A.; Vucetich, H.

    1986-04-01

    A method based on the ideas of collective motion is applied to Fokker-Planck dynamics. The usual diagramatic techniques used in stochastic dynamics are enlarged in order to deal with the non-polynomial Lagrangians that appear in the theory. The technique is tested and applied to the case of a self-sustained sinusoidal oscillator whose statistical behaviour is well understood: the Poincare oscillator. (author)

  20. Generation Mix Study Focusing on Nuclear Power by Practical Peak Forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Jung Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The excessive underestimation can lead to a range of problem; expansion of LNG plant requiring short construction period, the following increase of electricity price, low reserve margin and inefficient configuration of power source. With regard to nuclear power, the share of the stable and economic base load plant, nuclear power, can reduce under the optimum level. Amongst varied factors which contribute to the underestimate, immoderate target for demand side management (DSM) including double deduction of the constraint amount by DSM from peak demand forecast is one of the causes. The hypothesis in this study is that the better optimum generation mix including the adequate share of nuclear power can be obtained under the condition of the peak demand forecast without deduction of DSM target because this forecast is closer to the actual peak demand. In this study, the hypothesis is verified with comparison between peak demand forecast before (or after) DSM target application and the actual peak demand in the 3{sup rd} through 5{sup th} BPE from 2006 to 2010. Furthermore, this research compares and analyzes several generation mix in 2027 focusing on the nuclear power by a few conditions using the WASP-IV program on the basis of the 6{sup th} BPE in 2013. According to the comparative analysis on the peak demand forecast and actual peak demand from 2006 to 2010, the peak demand forecasts without the deduction of the DSM target is closer to the actual peak demand than the peak demand forecasts considering the DSM target in the 3{sup th}, 4{sup th}, 5{sup th} entirely. In addition, the generation mix until 2027 is examined by the WASP-IV. As a result of the program run, when considering the peak demand forecast without DSM reflection, since the base load plants including nuclear power take up adequate proportion, stable and economic supply of electricity can be achieved. On the contrary, in case of planning based on the peak demand forecast with DSM reflected and then

  1. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

  2. The effect of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the effects of non-recurring profits and losses on statement users’ decision-making processes from the perspective of securities analysts. We examine the relationship between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ non-recurring earnings. We find that 1 non-recurring gains and losses can influence analysts’ earnings forecast revision; 2 compared with non-recurring items resulting from policy changes, analysts are more concerned about those attributed to changes in business scope; 3 if listed companies use non-recurring items to turn losses into gains during earnings management, it will weaken the effects of non-recurring items on analysts’ earnings forecast revision. The results suggest that non-recurring items that result from changes in business scope incorporate information that users need for the future operation of the business. This article verifies the information relevance of non-recurring items and provides evidence for the necessity of non-recurring item disclosure. Keywords: Non-recurring items, Earnings forecasts, Revisions

  3. Fokker-Planck simulations of knock-on electron runaway avalanche and bursts in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, S.C.; Rosenbluth, M.N.; Harvey, R.W.; Chan, V.S.

    1998-01-01

    The avalanche of runaway electrons in an ohmic tokamak plasma triggered by knock-on collisions of traces of energetic electrons with the bulk electrons is simulated by the bounce averaged Fokker-Planck code, CQL3D. It is shown that even when the electric field is small for the production of Dreicer runaways, the knock-on collisions can produce significant runaway electrons in a fraction of a second at typical reactor parameters. The energy spectrum of these knock-on runaways has a characteristic temperature. The growth rate and temperature of the runaway distribution are determined and compared with theory. In simulations of pellet injection into high temperature plasmas, it is shown that a burst of Dreicer runaways may also occur depending on the cooling rate due to the pellet injection. Implications of these phenomena on disruption control in reactor plasmas are discussed. (author)

  4. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  5. Aggregated wind power generation probabilistic forecasting based on particle filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Pai; Guan, Xiaohong; Wu, Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new method for probabilistic forecasting of aggregated wind power generation. • A dynamic system is established based on a numerical weather prediction model. • The new method handles the non-Gaussian and time-varying wind power uncertainties. • Particle filter is applied to forecast predictive densities of wind generation. - Abstract: Probability distribution of aggregated wind power generation in a region is one of important issues for power system daily operation. This paper presents a novel method to forecast the predictive densities of the aggregated wind power generation from several geographically distributed wind farms, considering the non-Gaussian and non-stationary characteristics in wind power uncertainties. Based on a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, a dynamic system is established to formulate the relationship between the atmospheric and near-surface wind fields of geographically distributed wind farms. A recursively backtracking framework based on the particle filter is applied to estimate the atmospheric state with the near-surface wind power generation measurements, and to forecast the possible samples of the aggregated wind power generation. The predictive densities of the aggregated wind power generation are then estimated based on these predicted samples by a kernel density estimator. In case studies, the new method presented is tested on a 9 wind farms system in Midwestern United States. The testing results that the new method can provide competitive interval forecasts for the aggregated wind power generation with conventional statistical based models, which validates the effectiveness of the new method

  6. Planck 2013 results. XVII. Gravitational lensing by large-scale structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.

    2013-01-01

    On the arcminute angular scales probed by Planck, the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are gently perturbed by gravitational lensing. Here we present a detailed study of this eect, detecting lensing independently in the 100, 143, and 217 GHz frequency bands with an overall significa...... information, our measurement corresponds to a 4% constraint on the amplitude of the lensing potential power spectrum, or a 2% constraint on the root-mean-squared amplitude of matter fluctuations at z ∼ 2....

  7. Thermal architecture design tests for the Planck/HFI instrument

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piat, M.; Leriche, B.; Torre, J.-P.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Benoit, A.; Crussaire, J.-P

    2000-04-07

    The ESA satellite project Planck is designed to survey the sky at sub-millimetre and millimetre wavelengths in a drift scan mode. The High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) will use 48 bolometers cooled to 100 mK by a dilution cooler. In this paper, we describe how the scan strategy leads to requirements on the 0.1 K stage temperature stability and how a combination of a passive and an active system can be used to approach this specification.

  8. Early Transition and Use of VIIRS and GOES-R Products by NWS Forecast Offices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuell, Kevin K.; Smith, Mathew; Jedlovec, Gary

    2012-01-01

    The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, part of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the ABI and GLM sensors scheduled for the GOES-R geostationary satellite will bring advanced observing capabilities to the operational weather community. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project at Marshall Space Flight Center has been facilitating the use of real-time experimental and research satellite data by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) for a number of years to demonstrate the planned capabilities of future sensors to address particular forecast challenges through improve situational awareness and short-term weather forecasts. For the NOAA GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) activity, SPoRT is developing and disseminating selected GOES-R proxy products to collaborating WFOs and National Centers. SPoRT developed the a pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper product and helped in the transition of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Convective Initiation (CI) proxy product for the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Experiment,. Along with its partner WFOs, SPoRT is evaluating MODIS/GOES Hybrid products, which brings ABI-like data sets from existing NASA instrumentation in front of the forecaster for everyday use. The Hybrid uses near real-time MODIS imagery to demonstrate future ABI capabilities, while utilizing standard GOES imagery to provide the temporal frequency of geostationary imagery expected by operational forecasters. In addition, SPoRT is collaborating with the GOES-R hydrology AWG to transition a baseline proxy product for rainfall rate / quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) to the OCONUS regions. For VIIRS, SPoRT is demonstrating multispectral observing capabilities and the utility of low-light channels not previously available on operational weather satellites to address a variety of weather forecast challenges. This presentation will discuss the results of

  9. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making: An Exploratory ... lead to the failure to achieve projected performance. ... the use of multiple regression analysis model to forecast the stock market activities of each sector ... making, and that these decisions must be congruent with the company strategy.

  10. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  11. [A failed experiment - Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker, Jürgen Habermas and the Max-Planck Society].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leendertz, Ariane

    2014-01-01

    From 1970 to 1980 Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker headed the Max-Planck-lnstitut zur Erforschung der Lebensbedingungen der wissenschaftlich-technischen Welt (MPI for the study of the living conditions of the world of science and technology) in Starnberg, jointly with Jürgen Habermas since 1971. From the start, the Max Planck Society regarded the new institute as an experiment that might perhaps be aborted a few years later. This is exactly what happened. With the retirement of Weizsäcker, his section was closed and the whole institute was renamed. In 1981. Habermas resigned, and then the institute was closed. This paper focusses on some of the problem constellations within the institute that partly explain its development and eventual closure: its birth out of the idea of scientific policy advice, the debates within the Max Planck Society and the complex relationship between Weizsäcker and Jürgen Habermas.

  12. Planck 2015 results. X. Diffuse component separation: Foreground maps

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Alves, M.I.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.-R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Orlando, E.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Strong, A.W.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

    2016-01-01

    Planck has mapped the microwave sky in nine frequency bands between 30 and 857 GHz in temperature and seven bands between 30 and 353 GHz in polarization. In this paper we consider the problem of diffuse astrophysical component separation, and process these maps within a Bayesian framework to derive a consistent set of full-sky astrophysical component maps. For the temperature analysis, we combine the Planck observations with the 9-year WMAP sky maps and the Haslam et al. 408 MHz map to derive a joint model of CMB, synchrotron, free-free, spinning dust, CO, line emission in the 94 and 100 GHz channels, and thermal dust emission. Full-sky maps are provided with angular resolutions varying between 7.5 arcmin and 1 deg. Global parameters (monopoles, dipoles, relative calibration, and bandpass errors) are fitted jointly with the sky model, and best-fit values are tabulated. For polarization, the model includes CMB, synchrotron, and thermal dust emission. These models provide excellent fits to the observed data, wi...

  13. Planck 2015 results. XIV. Dark energy and modified gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Battye, R.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Heavens, A.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Ma, Y.Z.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marchini, A.; Martin, P.G.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Narimani, A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Salvatelli, V.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Schaefer, B.M.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Viel, M.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-09-20

    We study the implications of Planck data for models of dark energy (DE) and modified gravity (MG), beyond the cosmological constant scenario. We start with cases where the DE only directly affects the background evolution, considering Taylor expansions of the equation of state, principal component analysis and parameterizations related to the potential of a minimally coupled DE scalar field. When estimating the density of DE at early times, we significantly improve present constraints. We then move to general parameterizations of the DE or MG perturbations that encompass both effective field theories and the phenomenology of gravitational potentials in MG models. Lastly, we test a range of specific models, such as k-essence, f(R) theories and coupled DE. In addition to the latest Planck data, for our main analyses we use baryonic acoustic oscillations, type-Ia supernovae and local measurements of the Hubble constant. We further show the impact of measurements of the cosmological perturbations, such as redshif...

  14. Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Joe H., III; Hood, Doris

    2009-01-01

    Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and forecasters from the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violating the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) (Krider et al. 2006; Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR), NASA/JSC 2004)). As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool that creates an anvil threat corridor graphic that can be overlaid on satellite imagery using the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS, Short and Wheeler, 2002). The tool helps forecasters estimate the locations of thunderstorm anvils at one, two, and three hours into the future. It has been used extensively in launch and landing operations by both the 45 WS and SMG. The Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) is now used along with MIDDS for weather analysis and display at SMG. In Phase I of this task, SMG tasked the AMU to transition the tool from MIDDS to AWIPS (Barrett et aI., 2007). For Phase II, SMG requested the AMU make the Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS more configurable by creating the capability to read model gridded data from user-defined model files instead of hard-coded files. An NWS local AWIPS application called AGRID was used to accomplish this. In addition, SMG needed to be able to define the pressure levels for the model data, instead of hard-coding the bottom level as 300 mb and the top level as 150 mb. This paper describes the initial development of the Anvil Forecast Tool for MIDDS, followed by the migration of the tool to AWIPS in Phase I. It then gives a detailed presentation of the Phase II improvements to the AWIPS tool.

  15. Lagrangian transport model forecasts and a transport climatology for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) measurement campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forster, Caroline; Cooper, Owen; Stohl, Andreas; Eckhardt, Sabine; James, Paul; Dunlea, Edward; Nicks, Dennis K.; Holloway, John S.; Hübler, Gerd; Parrish, David D.; Ryerson, Tom B.; Trainer, Michael

    2004-04-01

    On the basis of Lagrangian tracer transport simulations this study presents an intercontinental transport climatology and tracer forecasts for the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2002 (ITCT 2K2) aircraft measurement campaign, which took place at Monterey, California, in April-May 2002 to measure Asian pollution arriving at the North American West Coast. For the climatology the average transport of an Asian CO tracer was calculated over a time period of 15 years using the particle dispersion model FLEXPART. To determine by how much the transport from Asia to North America during ITCT 2K2 deviated from the climatological mean, the 15-year average for April and May was compared with the average for April and May 2002 and that for the ITCT 2K2 period. It was found that 8% less Asian CO tracer arrived at the North American West Coast during the ITCT 2K2 period compared to the climatological mean. Below 8-km altitude, the maximum altitude of the research aircraft, 13% less arrived. Nevertheless, pronounced layers of Asian pollution were measured during 3 of the 13 ITCT 2K2 flights. FLEXPART was also successfully used as a forecasting tool for the flight planning during ITCT 2K2. It provided 3-day forecasts for three different anthropogenic CO tracers originating from Asia, North America, and Europe. In two case studies the forecast abilities of FLEXPART are analyzed and discussed by comparing the forecasts with measurement data and infrared satellite images. The model forecasts underestimated the measured CO enhancements by about a factor of 4, mainly because of an underestimation of the Asian emissions in the emission inventory and because of biomass-burning influence that was not modeled. Nevertheless, the intercontinental transport and dispersion of pollution plumes were qualitatively well predicted, and on the basis of the model results the aircraft could successfully be guided into the polluted air masses.

  16. Spatial Forecast of Landslides in Three Gorges Based On Spatial Data Mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianmin Wang

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges is a region with a very high landslide distribution density and a concentrated population. In Three Gorges there are often landslide disasters, and the potential risk of landslides is tremendous. In this paper, focusing on Three Gorges, which has a complicated landform, spatial forecasting of landslides is studied by establishing 20 forecast factors (spectra, texture, vegetation coverage, water level of reservoir, slope structure, engineering rock group, elevation, slope, aspect, etc. China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (Cbers images were adopted based on C4.5 decision tree to mine spatial forecast landslide criteria in Guojiaba Town (Zhigui County in Three Gorges and based on this knowledge, perform intelligent spatial landslide forecasts for Guojiaba Town. All landslides lie in the dangerous and unstable regions, so the forecast result is good. The method proposed in the paper is compared with seven other methods: IsoData, K-Means, Mahalanobis Distance, Maximum Likelihood, Minimum Distance, Parallelepiped and Information Content Model. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a high forecast precision, noticeably higher than that of the other seven methods.

  17. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  18. On the quantum-mechanical Fokker-Planck and Kramers-Chandrasekhar equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balazs, N.L.

    1978-01-01

    In the classical theory of Brownian motion the Langevin equation can be considered as an infinitesimal transformation between the coordinates and momenta of a Brownian particle, given probabilistically, since the impulse appearing is characterized by a Gaussian random process. This probabilistic infinitesimal transformation generates a streaming on the distribution function, expressed by the classical Fokker-Planck and Kramers-Chandrasekhar equations. If the laws obeyed by the Brownian particle are quantum mechanical, the Langevin equation can be reinterpreted as an operator relation expressing an infinitesimal transformation of these operators. Since the impulses are independent of the coordinates and momenta one can think of them as c numbers described by a Gaussian random process. The so resulting infinitesimal operator transformation induces a streaming on the density matrix. One may associate, according to Weyl, functions with operators. The function associated with the density matrix is the Wigner function. Expressing, then, these operator relations in terms of these functions the streaming can be expressed as a continuity equation of the Wigner function. It is found that in this parametrization the extra terms which appear are the same as in the classical theory, augmenting the usual Wigner equation. (Auth.)

  19. Hypersonic expansion of the Fokker--Planck equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Feria, R.

    1989-01-01

    A systematic study of the hypersonic limit of a heavy species diluted in a much lighter gas is made via the Fokker--Planck equation governing its velocity distribution function. In particular, two different hypersonic expansions of the Fokker--Planck equation are considered, differing from each other in the momentum equation of the heavy gas used as the basis of the expansion: in the first of them, the pressure tensor is neglected in that equation while, in the second expansion, the pressure tensor term is retained. The expansions are valid when the light gas Mach number is O(1) or larger and the difference between the mean velocities of light and heavy components is small compared to the light gas thermal speed. They can be applied away from regions where the spatial gradient of the distribution function is very large, but it is not restricted with respect to the temporal derivative of the distribution function. The hydrodynamic equations corresponding to the lowest order of both expansions constitute two different hypersonic closures of the moment equations. For the subsequent orders in the expansions, closed sets of moment equations (hydrodynamic equations) are given. Special emphasis is made on the order of magnitude of the errors of the lowest-order hydrodynamic quantities. It is shown that if the heat flux vanishes initially, these errors are smaller than one might have expected from the ordinary scaling of the hypersonic closure. Also it is found that the normal solution of both expansions is a Gaussian distribution at the lowest order

  20. Wind and load forecast error model for multiple geographically distributed forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To simulate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations. auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to produce forecast error time-domain curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and some experimental results obtained by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics. (orig.)