WorldWideScience

Sample records for pipeline risk methodology

  1. Application of risk based inspection methodology of API 581 BRD to oil pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezzi Filho, M. [Petrobras, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Freire, J.L.F.; Maragone, F.. [Pontifica Univ. Catolica, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    In response to public concerns regarding the safe operation of pipelines, operators are relying on risk management to balance the demands of pipeline integrity and service competitiveness. This paper presented a procedure for calculating the probability of failure according to the API 581 BRD RB I methodology that uses data collected from 3 existing oil pipelines subject to internal corrosion. The risk exposure that the pipeline may be subjected to during its remaining operating life was evaluated. Risk is a function of the probability of failure and the consequences of that failure. Therefore, if the consequences of the failure are assumed to remain unchanged for a given equipment under specific operational conditions, then risk reduction will only be achieved by decreasing the probability of failure and through management of the inspection process. It was shown that if the confidence on the damage rate and on the inspection effectiveness is known, then it is possible to design an alternative to an existing inspection plan. This calls for pig inspections at 5 year intervals to ensure that the probability of failures for pipelines will be under a certain level of tolerable risk. 9 refs., 4 tabs., 3 figs.

  2. Developing pipeline risk methodology for environmental license permit; Metodologia para avaliacao do risco em dutos, no licenciamento ambiental

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arruda, Paulo; Naime, Andre [Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis (IBAMA), Brasilia, DF (Brazil). Diretoria de Licenciamento e Qualidade Ambiental; Serpa, Ricardo [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Analise de Riscos; Mendes, Renato F. [PETROBRAS Engenharia, RJ (Brazil); Ventura, Gilmar [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transportes, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    Some new pipelines undertakings aim to establish connection between gas provinces in the Southeast and consumers in the Northeast of Brazil, in order to supply medium consuming centers and regions with minor potential of development. Consulting companies are carrying out Environmental Assessments studies and among them is the Risk Analyses of these pipeline transmission systems, in order to receive environmental permits by IBAMA, the Federal Brazilian Environmental Agency. In addition, existing interstate pipeline systems which are under IBAMA regulation will also require the same attention. For the purpose of defining a Pipeline Risk Analysis Protocol with methodology and risk criteria, with minimum risk analysis information on a comprehensive process, it has been decided for a 'tour de force' formed by experts from IBAMA and PETROBRAS engineers. The risk assessment protocol is focus on the risk to communities in the neighborhood of these pipelines and on the potential damage to the environment near and far from the ROW. The joined work ended up in two protocols, which attempt to provide environmental license permits for oil pipeline and gas pipelines with minimum contents for risk analysis studies. Another aspect is the environmental risk that has been focused on the contingency plan approach, since there are no consolidated environmental risk criteria for application as a common worldwide sense. The environmental risk mapping - MARA methodology will indicate areas with potential to be affected by leakages along a pipeline system. (author)

  3. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  4. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  5. Improved FTA methodology and application to subsea pipeline reliability design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing; Yuan, Yongbo; Zhang, Mingyuan

    2014-01-01

    An innovative logic tree, Failure Expansion Tree (FET), is proposed in this paper, which improves on traditional Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It describes a different thinking approach for risk factor identification and reliability risk assessment. By providing a more comprehensive and objective methodology, the rather subjective nature of FTA node discovery is significantly reduced and the resulting mathematical calculations for quantitative analysis are greatly simplified. Applied to the Useful Life phase of a subsea pipeline engineering project, the approach provides a more structured analysis by constructing a tree following the laws of physics and geometry. Resulting improvements are summarized in comparison table form.

  6. pipelines cathodic protection design methodologies for impressed

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    oil and gas pipelines corrosion in the United State of. American alone ... or preventing external corrosion of pipeline steels and other metallic .... 2.1 Materials and Impressed Current Design. Carbon steel ..... Research Analysis, Vol. 2, pp 2277 ...

  7. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  8. Pipeline external corrosion direct assessment methodology: lessons learned - part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowalski, Angel R. [DNV Columbus, Inc., OH (United States)

    2009-07-01

    DNV Columbus (Former CC Technologies) played a key role in the development of Direct Assessment (DA) methodologies, providing leadership in the NACE technical committees charged with development of DA standards. Since the first publication of NACE Standard RP-0502-2002, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) has been successfully applied over a great number of pipelines to evaluate the impact of external corrosion on the pipeline integrity. This paper summarizes the results of applying ECDA over a selected number of underground pipelines and presents interesting facts about the methodology. (author)

  9. Methodology for environmental audit of execution in gas-pipelines and pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurtado Palomino, Maria Patricia; Vargas Bejarano, Carlos Hernando

    1999-01-01

    In first instance the constructive aspects and the environmental impact related with the gas-pipes and pipelines construction are presented; then a methodology to make the environmental audit of execution in gas-pipes and pipelines, is showed. They contemplate four stages basically: planning, pre-auditory, execution and analysis, and post-auditory with their respective activities. Also, it is given to know, generalities of the practical case, to evaluate the applicability of the proposed methodology

  10. Pipelines cathodic protection design methodologies for impressed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several inadequate designs of cathodically polarized offshore and onshore pipelines have been reported in Nigeria owing to design complexity and application of the cathodic protection system. The present study focused on critical and detailed approach in impressed current and sacrificial anode design calculation ...

  11. Liquid Pipeline Operator's Control Room Human Factors Risk Assessment and Management Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-26

    The purpose of this guide is to document methodologies, tools, procedures, guidance, and instructions that have been developed to provide liquid pipeline operators with an efficient and effective means of managing the human factors risks in their con...

  12. Two methodological perspectives on the Energy East Pipeline conflict

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, Amanda; Obeidi, Amer; Hipel, Keith W.

    2016-01-01

    Two complementary approaches for identifying potential resolutions to a conflict are applied to a pipeline dispute in Canada to gain a range of valuable strategic insights as to how it can be resolved. More specifically, the controversy over the Energy East Pipeline for shipping bitumen from the Alberta oil sands for refining in Central and Eastern Canada as well as shipping overseas is investigated using the usual definitions for stability as well as the metarational tree methodology in which policies can be taken into account. As demonstrated by the case study, enhanced strategic insights can be garnered when the metarational tree approach is utilised for exploring conflict resolution within the confines of existing policy. The metarational tree procedure constitutes a useful expansion of the overall Graph Model for Conflict Resolution set of techniques for formally investigating real world disputes. - Highlights: •Application of generalised metarationalities to the Energy East Pipeline conflict. •Comparison and contrasting of generalised metarationalities and the graph model. •Generalised metarationalities are useful for conflicts’ spanning long periods of time. •Generalised metarationalities use policies which may circumvent player preferences.

  13. Managing the market risk in pipeline capacity positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.S.

    1998-01-01

    Managing the risk involved in adding new pipeline capacity was explored in this presentation. Topics discussed included: (1) pipeline capacity positions as basis swaps, (2) physical capacity versus basis transactions, (3) managing the market price risk in a capacity position, and (4) sharing of pipeline market risk. Pipeline owners were advised to recognize that pipeline capacity carries significant market price risk, that basis markets can sometimes be more volatile than outright markets, and to treat physical capacity market risk the same way as one would treat a financial basis position. 2 figs

  14. Regional risk assessment of environmental contamination from oil pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelmulder, S.D.; Eguchi, R.T.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks due to earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as annual frequency of exceedence curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation

  15. Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins

  16. Application of risk assessment techniques to 'major hazard' pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, R A

    1982-12-01

    A risk analysis for a hazardous-material pipeline (carrying LPG, ammonia, or high-pressure gas) is presented. The analysis gives results in a form that will assist the decisionmaker in pipeline planning and route selection. The large inventory of hazardous materials in such pipelines means that risks exist even though the accident record of pipeline transportation compares favorably with that for competing modes of transport. Risk analysis techniques - commonly used in the civil aviation, nuclear, and process industries - can be equally well applied to pipelines and can produce results that not only give a measure of the risk but also indicate the principal sources of risk and possible areas for improvement. A number of pipeline risk analyses have demonstrated the viability of the technique and its usefulness as an aid to practical engineering in design, planning, and maintenance/repair phases.

  17. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  18. An emerging methodology of slope hazard assessment for natural gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Z.J.; O' Neil, G.; Rizkalla, M. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2000-07-01

    A new slope assessment methodology has been developed by TransCanada PipeLines Ltd. in an effort to switch from a reactive to a proactive hazard management approach and to optimize maintenance expenditure. The company operates 37,000 km of natural gas gathering and transmission pipelines, portions of which traverse slopes and stream crossings. The newly developed rainfall-ground movement model provides site-specific ground movement predictions for approximately 1100 slopes and establishes a risk-ranked list of slopes upon which maintenance decisions can be based. The input to the predictive model is derived from internal and public information regarding site conditions. This information serves as input to a pipe-soil interaction model to determine the probability of pipeline failure for each slope. The ground movement for this model is limited to creep-type which is typically less than 100 mm per year. Landslides are not addressed in this paper. A system-wide database has been constructed for slopes to prioritize the slope movement hazards. The slope information includes geotechnical data such as bedrock geology, surficial geology, slope details, precipitation and erosion potential. Information related to the pipeline includes the location, age, size, as well as design pressure and temperature. 13 refs., 2 figs.

  19. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  20. Developing a pipeline risk assessment tool for the upstream oil and gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paez, J.; Roy, A. [Talisman Energy Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This paper described an in-house pipeline risk assessment process developed by Talisman Energy. The semi-quantitative methodology was used to identify high-risk pipelines. The first phase of the methodology consisted of determining only the consequence of failures, while the second phase included a detailed, more traditional approach that considered consequences and the likelihood of failure. A mathematical algorithm was developed to generate a final consequence score between 0 and 4. The algorithm combined both public concern and environmental concern scores to form a base value for the health and safety score. A production score was then factored in to yield an overall consequence score. The algorithm yielded results consistent with real pipeline failure consequences. Phase 2 considered internal and external corrosion likelihood, historical likelihood, third party damage likelihood. and geotechnical likelihood. A cascading approach was to yield an overall likelihood score. Examples of the methodology were included. 9 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  1. Capital structure in LNG infrastructures and gas pipelines projects: Empirical evidences and methodological issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierru, Axel; Roussanaly, Simon; Sabathier, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides new empirical insights on the capital structure of project-financed LNG infrastructures and gas pipeline projects, by using data relating to projects whose financial close occurred between June 2004 and March 2011. Most results are consistent with the basic view of risk-averse funds suppliers. Especially, the projects located in risky countries and larger projects tend to exhibit lower debt ratios and less-concentrated equity ownerships. In addition, regasification projects appear to have a more diluted equity ownership. Methodological issues raised by the financing of these projects are also examined from a capital-budgeting perspective. In particular, the equity residual method, usually used by industrial practitioners to value these projects, should be adjusted. - Highlights: • This paper provides new empirical insights on the capital structure of project-financed LNG and gas pipeline infrastructures. • Most of our results are consistent with the basic view of risk-averse funds suppliers. • Projects located in risky countries exhibit lower debt ratios and less-concentrated equity ownerships. • Larger projects and regasification projects also have less concentrated equity ownerships. • From a capital-budgeting viewpoint, we examine methodological issues raised by the financing of these projects

  2. Landscape susceptibility, hazard and risk assessments along pipeline corridors in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blais-Stevens, A.; Couture, R.; Page, A. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Geological Survey of Canada; Koch, J.; Clague, J.J. [Simon Fraser Univ., Burnaby, BC (Canada); Lipovsky, P.S. [Yukon Geological Survey, Whitehorse, YT (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This article discussed work that was carried out to inventory landslides and assess hazards along two proposed gas-pipeline routes in the North. Landslide inventories and hazard assessments are necessary to quantify and qualify the risk of environmental impacts from landslides on linear infrastructure. The Yukon Alaska Highway Pipeline and the Mackenzie Gas Project Pipeline, which will both be over 800 kilometres in length, will cross harsh landscapes characterized by permafrost terrain and will be at risk from geological hazards, including landslides with debris flows, earthquakes, subsidence, and permafrost degradation. The work involved inventorying and mapping landslides via aerial photography and field visits to identify the frequency-magnitude relationships for debris flow fans along the route and the creation of qualitative parametric landslide maps for both proposed pipeline corridors. A good correlation was found between actual landslide distribution and the landslide susceptibility maps. For the Mackenzie Valley Pipeline Corridor, most landslides have occurred in fine unconsolidated sediments and shallow slopes. Landslides in the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor mostly happened in unconsolidated sediments, but a few took place in bedrock with high relief. The preliminary investigation revealed that a slope hazard exists in both corridors and must be taken into account during pipeline development. The results are intended to facilitate better decision-making for planning, constructing, and maintaining safe and economically viable pipeline routes in Northern Canada. The mapping methodology was outlined. 13 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  3. Methodology for probability of failure assessment of offshore pipelines; Metodologia qualitativa de avaliacao da probabilidade de falha de dutos rigidos submarinos estaticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pezzi Filho, Mario [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    In this study it is presented a methodology for assessing the likelihood of failure for every failure mechanism defined for carbon steel static offshore pipelines. This methodology is aimed to comply with the Integrity Management policy established by the Company. Decision trees are used for the development of the methodology and the evaluation of the extent and the significance of these failure mechanisms. Decision trees enable also the visualization of the logical structure of algorithms which eventually will be used in risk assessment software. The benefits of the proposed methodology are presented and it is recommended that it be tested on static offshore pipelines installed in different assets for validation. (author)

  4. Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

  5. Risk from transport of gas by pipeline ''kokui-perm''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yelokhin, A.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the length of gas pipelines in Russia is 142 thousands km, 62 % are pipelines of the large diameters. Annually on gas pipelines in Russia there are more than 70 large accidents, more than 50 % from them is accompanied by ignition of gas. The average ecological looses from accident is: destruction arable lands - 78 hectares; removing from consumption agricultural soils - 6,2 hectares; destruction forests - 47,5 hectares. In work the reasons of accidents on gas pipelines of different diameters are analyzed. So, for pipelines a diameter of 1220 mm by the reasons of accidents are: marriage of civil and erection works - 39, 1 %; outside corrosion - 35,9 %; mechanical damages - 9,4 %; defects of pipes - 6,2 %; defects of the factory equipment - 1,6 %; nature disasters and other reasons - 7,8 %. In work the results of risk analysis on a gas pipeline 'Kokui - Perm' are analysed. The gas pipeline 'Kokui - Perm' passes near 22 towns and countries, crosses 15 highways, 2 rail ways, 15 rivers. In work the concrete recommendations for management of risk and safety of the population are given. (author)

  6. Development of a design methodology for hydraulic pipelines carrying rectangular capsules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asim, Taimoor; Mishra, Rakesh; Abushaala, Sufyan; Jain, Anuj

    2016-01-01

    The scarcity of fossil fuels is affecting the efficiency of established modes of cargo transport within the transportation industry. Efforts have been made to develop innovative modes of transport that can be adopted for economic and environmental friendly operating systems. Solid material, for instance, can be packed in rectangular containers (commonly known as capsules), which can then be transported in different concentrations very effectively using the fluid energy in pipelines. For economical and efficient design of such systems, both the local flow characteristics and the global performance parameters need to be carefully investigated. Published literature is severely limited in establishing the effects of local flow features on system characteristics of Hydraulic Capsule Pipelines (HCPs). The present study focuses on using a well validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tool to numerically simulate the solid-liquid mixture flow in both on-shore and off-shore HCPs applications including bends. Discrete Phase Modelling (DPM) has been employed to calculate the velocity of the rectangular capsules. Numerical predictions have been used to develop novel semi-empirical prediction models for pressure drop in HCPs, which have then been embedded into a robust and user-friendly pipeline optimisation methodology based on Least-Cost Principle. - Highlights: • Local flow characteristics in a pipeline transporting rectangular capsules. • Development of prediction models for the pressure drop contribution of capsules. • Methodology developed for sizing of Hydraulic Capsule Pipelines. • Implementation of the developed methodology to obtain optimal pipeline diameter.

  7. Screening Risk Evaluation methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopper, K.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Screening Risk Evaluation (SRE) Guidance document is a set of guidelines provided for the uniform implementation of SREs performed on D ampersand D facilities. These guidelines are designed specifically for the completion of the second (semi-quantitative screening) phase of the D ampersand D Risk-Based Process. The SRE Guidance produces screening risk scores reflecting levels of risk through the use of risk ranking indices. Five types of possible risk are calculated from the SRE: current releases, worker exposures, future releases, physical hazards, and criticality. The Current Release Index (CRI) calculates the risk to human health and the environment from ongoing or probable releases within a one year time period. The Worker Exposure Index (WEI) calculates the risk to workers, occupants, and visitors in D ampersand D facilities of contaminant exposure. The Future Release Index (FRI) calculates the risk of future releases of contaminants, after one year, to human health and the environment. The Physical Hazards Index (PHI) calculates the risk-to human health due to factors other than that of contaminants. The index of Criticality is approached as a modifying factor to the entire SRE, due to the fact that criticality issues are strictly regulated under DOE. Screening risk results will be tabulated in matrix form and Total Risk will be calculated (weighted equation) to produce a score on which to base early action recommendations. Other recommendations from the screening risk scores will be made based either on individual index scores or from reweighted Total Risk calculations. All recommendations based on the SRE will be made based on a combination of screening risk scores, decision drivers, and other considerations, determined on a project by project basis. The SRE is the first and most important step in the overall D ampersand D project level decision making process

  8. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  9. Methodology for reducing energy and resource costs in construction of trenchless crossover of pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, V. S.

    2018-05-01

    The paper suggests a set of measures to select the equipment and its components in order to reduce energy costs in the process of pulling the pipeline into the well in the constructing the trenchless pipeline crossings of various materials using horizontal directional drilling technology. A methodology for reducing energy costs has been developed by regulating the operation modes of equipment during the process of pulling the working pipeline into a drilled and pre-expanded well. Since the power of the drilling rig is the most important criterion in the selection of equipment for the construction of a trenchless crossover, an algorithm is proposed for calculating the required capacity of the rig when operating in different modes in the process of pulling the pipeline into the well.

  10. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  11. Pipeline risk management manual ideas, techniques, and resources

    CERN Document Server

    Muhlbauer, W Kent

    2004-01-01

    Here's the ideal tool if you're looking for a flexible, straightforward analysis system for your everyday design and operations decisions. This new third edition includes sections on stations, geographical information systems, ""absolute"" versus ""relative"" risks, and the latest regulatory developments. From design to day-to-day operations and maintenance, this unique volume covers every facet of pipeline risk management, arguably the most important, definitely the most hotly debated, aspect of pipelining today.Now expanded and updated, this widely accepted standard reference guide

  12. Risk analysis for construction and operation of gas pipeline projects in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mubin, S.; Mubin, G.

    2008-01-01

    In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed. Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices are also important risk factors. All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks. (author)

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  15. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  16. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

    2009-01-01

    Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

  17. Quantitative risk analysis of the pipeline GASDUC III - solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Edmilson P.; Bettoni, Izabel Cristina [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this work the quantitative risks analysis to the external public of the Pipeline Cabiunas - REDUC (GASDUC III), with 180 km, linking the municipalities of Macae and Duque de Caxias - RJ was performed by the Companies PETROBRAS and ITSEMAP do Brasil. In addition to the large diameter of the pipeline 38 inches and high operation pressure 100 kgf/cm{sup 2} operating with natural gas through several densely populated areas. Initially, the individual risk contours were calculated without considering mitigating measures, obtaining as result the individual risk contour with frequencies of 1x10{sup -06} per year involving sensitive occupations and therefore considered unacceptable when compared with the INEA criterion. The societal risk was calculated for eight densely populated areas and their respective FN-curves situated below the advised limit established by INEA, except for two areas that required the proposal of additional mitigating measures to the reduction of societal risk. Regarding to societal risk, the FN-curve should be below the advised limit presented in the Technical Instruction of INEA. The individual and societal risk were reassessed incorporating some mitigating measures and the results situated below the advised limits established by INEA and PETROBRAS has obtained the license for installation of the pipeline. (author)

  18. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hamidi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.ResultsOnce applying this method, collection of required data and performing needed experiments, scoring results showed 96 risk segments along the pipeline length in which lengths 100+860, 101+384 and 103+670 had relative risk scores 9.74, 9.82 and 9.91 respectively and therefore these segments were identified as focal risk points and priority for improvement actions.ConclusionRegarding importance of pipeline failure, inspection and regular patrol along the pipeline route, precise control of cathodic protection of pipeline and using communication technologies such as SCADA or optical fibers along the pipeline route were amongst the mostimportant control action suggested by the study.

  19. Managing risks in the project pipeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    This research focuses on how to manage the risks of project costs and revenue uncertainties over the long-term, and identifies significant : process improvements to ensure projects are delivered on time and as intended, thus maximizing the miles pave...

  20. Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

    2009-07-01

    Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

  1. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  2. An analysis of perceptions and awareness of risk associated with energy pipelines in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatenda Mbara

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, there has been a rapid growth in the use of pipelines to transport energy products. Due to the strategic nature of energy products that are transported by pipelines, the importance of risk awareness, assessment and management cannot be over-emphasised. With the risk of pipeline disruptions increasing globally, energy pipeline organisations are compelled to incorporate measures that should help to identify and address areas that can lead to energy pipeline disruptions. The incorporation of such measures for any organisation is premised on an understanding and appreciation of the risks involved. Given the strategic importance of energy pipelines, the main purpose of this paper is to establish whether the South African energy pipeline sector and the public at large appreciate the risks associated with energy pipelines. Thus, the paper seeks to ascertain awareness of the risks associated with the energy pipeline's physical environment, not only from the energy pipeline operators, but also from communities who are exposed to such risks. Data for the study was collected from energy pipeline operators and from a selected residential area in Johannesburg using both structured and unstructured questionnaires. The findings show that the corporate energy sector in South Africa is aware of risks associated with energy pipeline supply chains while the general public's awareness is very low.

  3. Applied methodology for replacement pipe arcs in integral pipelines TE 'Oslomej'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temelkoska Bratica K.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The integral pipelines in thermal power plants present a linear spatial bearing construction with high operating parameters, complex static and dynamic load. The integral pipelines along its entire length are hanging on construction spring hangers from the boiler building, where the boiler is placed, next to the machine hall where the turbine is placed. Therefore, it is important to monitor the condition and to remove any possible defects from the applied methods. This paper describes the methodology of replacement of the pipe arch on one of the integral pipelines-the line for hot superheated steam. In addition, in this paper are given the method methods that led to this methodology for testing and evaluation of the condition of the pipe arch material that had been in exploitation and the new pipe arch that will be embedded. Furthermore the approach, the technology of replacement, anchoring of the steam line, technology of welding etc., as well as the preparation of the final design of constructed condition are also covered in this paper.

  4. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  5. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  6. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  7. The Muhlbauer method for pipeline risk management in onshore environment; O metodo de Muhlbauer para gerenciamento de risco em linhas de dutos em ambiente 'onshore'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schafer, Alexandro G.; Miguelis, Paula M.F. [UNIPAMPA, RS (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    There are several methods for the risk assessment and risk management applied to pipelines, among them the Muhlbauer's Method. W. Kent Muhlbauer is an internationally recognized authority on pipeline risk management. He made a detailed identification about 300 distinct conditions that influence the risk assessment in pipelines and he proposed a score system that is known as method of Muhlbauer. The purpose of this model is to evaluate the public exposure to the risk and identify ways for management that risk in fact. The assessment is made by the attribution of quantitative values to the several items that influences in the pipeline risk. This paper approaches the Muhlbauer's basic model for risk assessment and management in pipelines. In the beginning, the basic model for risk assessment is presented, and methodology for pipelines in onshore environment is detailed. After, presents major items in risk assessment and this relative score. Finally, present the additional modules for Muhlbauer's method customizing. (author)

  8. From experience : applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, J.A.; Halman, J.I.M.; Song, X.M.

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  9. From experience: applying the risk diagnosing methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Jimme A.; Halman, Johannes I.M.; Song, Michael

    2002-01-01

    No risk, no reward. Companies must take risks to launch new products speedily and successfully. The ability to diagnose and manage risks is increasingly considered of vital importance in high-risk innovation. This article presents the Risk Diagnosing Methodology (RDM), which aims to identify and

  10. GASVOL 18'' gas pipeline - risk based inspection study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoernoey, Ola H.; Etterdal, Birger A. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Oslo (Norway); Guarize, Rosimar; Oliveira, Luiz F.S. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil); Faertes, Denise; Dias, Ricardo [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    This paper describes a risk based approach and inspection planning as part of the Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) system for the 95.5 km long 18'' GASVOL gas pipeline in the South eastern region of Brazil transporting circa 5 000 000 m3 dry gas per day. Pipeline systems can be subject to several degradation mechanisms and inspection and monitoring are used to ensure system integrity. Modern pipeline regulations and codes are normally based on a core safety or risk philosophy. The detailed design requirements presented in design codes are practical interpretations established so as to fulfill these core objectives. A given pipeline, designed, constructed and installed according to a pipeline code is therefore the realization of a structure, which, along its whole length, meets the applicable safety objectives of that code. The main objective of Pipeline Integrity Management (PIM) is to control and document the integrity of the pipeline for its whole service life, and to do this in a cost-effective manner. DNV has a specific approach to RBI planning, starting with an initial qualitative assessment where pipelines and damage type are ranked according to risk and potential risk reduction by an inspection and then carried forward to a quantitative detailed assessment where the level of complexity and accuracy can vary based on availability of information and owner needs. Detailed assessment requires significant effort in data gathering. The findings are dependent upon the accuracy of the inspection data, and on DNV's interpretation of the pipeline reference system and simplifications in the inspection data reported. The following specific failure mechanisms were investigated: internal corrosion, external corrosion, third party interference, landslides and black powder. RBI planning, in general words, is a 'living process'. In order to optimize future inspections, it is essential that the analyses utilize the most recent information regarding

  11. Crossing Active Faults on the Sakhalin II Onshore Pipeline Route: Pipeline Design and Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattiozzi, Pierpaolo; Strom, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    Twin oil (20 and 24 inch) and gas (20 and 48 inch) pipeline systems stretching 800 km are being constructed to connect offshore hydrocarbon deposits from the Sakhalin II concession in the North to an LNG plant and oil export terminal in the South of Sakhalin island. The onshore pipeline route follows a regional fault zone and crosses individual active faults at 19 locations. Sakhalin Energy, Design and Construction companies took significant care to ensure the integrity of the pipelines, should large seismic induced ground movements occur during the Operational life of the facilities. Complex investigations including the identification of the active faults, their precise location, their particular displacement values and assessment of the fault kinematics were carried out to provide input data for unique design solutions. Lateral and reverse offset displacements of 5.5 and 4.5 m respectively were determined as the single-event values for the design level earthquake (DLE) - the 1000-year return period event. Within the constraints of a pipeline route largely fixed, the underground pipeline fault crossing design was developed to define the optimum routing which would minimize stresses and strain using linepipe materials which had been ordered prior to the completion of detailed design, and to specify requirements for pipe trenching shape, materials, drainage system, etc. Detailed Design was performed with due regard to actual topography and to avoid the possibility of the trenches freezing in winter, the implementation of specific drainage solutions and thermal protection measures

  12. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Budnitz, Robert J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-31

    If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO2 annually, with the CO2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelines are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of

  13. Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  15. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  16. TePiTri : a screening method for assessing terrorist-related pipeline transport risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2012-01-01

    The article proposes an approach to determine relative terrorist-related security risk levels of pipeline transportation. Pipeline routes are divided into smaller route segments. Subsequently, likelihood scores of possible terrorist-related incidents are determined per route segment and per

  17. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  18. Basic overview towards the assessment of landslide and subsidence risks along a geothermal pipeline network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astisiasari; Van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; van der Meer, Freek; Rahmawati Hizbaron, Dyah

    2017-12-01

    An operating geothermal power plant consists of installation units that work systematically in a network. The pipeline network connects various engineering structures, e.g. well pads, separator, scrubber, and power station, in the process of transferring geothermal fluids to generate electricity. Besides, a pipeline infrastructure also delivers the brine back to earth, through the injection well-pads. Despite of its important functions, a geothermal pipeline may bear a threat to its vicinity through a pipeline failure. The pipeline can be impacted by perilous events like landslides, earthquakes, and subsidence. The pipeline failure itself may relate to physical deterioration over time, e.g. due to corrosion and fatigue. The geothermal reservoirs are usually located in mountainous areas that are associated with steep slopes, complex geology, and weathered soil. Geothermal areas record a noteworthy number of disasters, especially due to landslide and subsidence. Therefore, a proper multi-risk assessment along the geothermal pipeline is required, particularly for these two types of hazard. This is also to mention that the impact on human fatality and injury is not presently discussed here. This paper aims to give a basic overview on the existing approaches for the assessment of multi-risk assessment along geothermal pipelines. It delivers basic principles on the analysis of risks and its contributing variables, in order to model the loss consequences. By considering the loss consequences, as well as the alternatives for mitigation measures, the environmental safety in geothermal working area could be enforced.

  19. Risk-based methodology for USNRC inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, S.M.; Holahan, G.M.; Chung, J.W.; Johnson, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the development and trial applications of a risk-based methodology to enhance the inspection processes for US nuclear power plants. Objectives of risk-based methods to complement prescriptive engineering approaches in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) inspection programs are presented. Insights from time-dependent risk profiles of plant configurational from Individual Plant Evaluation (IPE) studies were integrated to develop a framework for optimizing inspection efforts in NRC regulatory initiatives. Lessons learned from NRC pilot applications of the risk-based methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at US nuclear power plant sites are also discussed

  20. Comparative QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) of natural gas distribution pipelines in urban areas; Analise comparativa dos riscos da operacao de linhas de gas natural em areas urbanas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Luiz Fernando S. de [Energy Solutions South America (Brazil); Cardoso, Cassia de O.; Storch, Rafael [Det Norske Veritas (DNV) (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The natural gas pipeline network grows around the world, but its operation inherently imposes a risk to the people living next to pipelines. Due to this, it is necessary to conduct a risk analysis during the environmental licensing in Brazil. Despite the risk analysis methodology is well established, some points of its application for the distribution pipelines are still under discussion. This paper presents a methodology that examines the influences of major projects and operating parameters on the risk calculation of a distribution pipeline accident in urban areas as well as the possible accident scenarios assessment complexity. The impact of some scenarios has been evaluated using a Computational Fluid Dynamics tool. The results indicate that, under certain conditions, the risks from the pipeline operation under operating pressures of 20 bar may be acceptable in location class 3 or even in class 4. These results play a very important role if management decisions on the growth of the distribution of natural gas network in densely populated areas as well as in the improvement of laws to control the activity of distribution of natural gas. (author)

  1. Screening radon risks: A methodology for policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisinger, D.S.; Simmons, R.A.; Lammering, M.; Sotiros, R.

    1991-01-01

    This paper provides an easy-to-use screening methodology to estimate potential excess lifetime lung cancer risk resulting from indoor radon exposure. The methodology was developed under U.S. EPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation sponsorship of the agency's Integrated Environmental Management Projects (IEMP) and State/Regional Comparative Risk Projects. These projects help policymakers understand and use scientific data to develop environmental problem-solving strategies. This research presents the risk assessment methodology, discusses its basis, and identifies appropriate applications. The paper also identifies assumptions built into the methodology and qualitatively addresses methodological uncertainties, the direction in which these uncertainties could bias analyses, and their relative importance. The methodology draws from several sources, including risk assessment formulations developed by the U.S. EPA's Office of Radiation Programs, the EPA's Integrated Environmental Management Project (Denver), the International Commission on Radiological Protection, and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. When constructed as a spreadsheet program, the methodology easily facilitates analyses and sensitivity studies (the paper includes several sensitivity study options). The methodology will be most helpful to those who need to make decisions concerning radon testing, public education, and exposure prevention and mitigation programs.26 references

  2. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  3. MARA - methodology to analyze environmental risks; MARA - elaboracao de metodologia para analise dos riscos ambientais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendes, Renato F; Yogui, Regiane [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Minniti, Vivienne [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Analise de Riscos; Lopes, Carlos F [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Setor de Operacoes de Emergencia; Milaneli, Joao [Companhia de Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental (CETESB), Ubatuba, SP (Brazil). Agencia Ambiental de Ubatuba; Torres, Carlos [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transportes, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude; Rodrigues, Gabriela; Mariz, Eduardo [Consultoria Paulista, SP (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    In the oil industry, the environmental impact assessment of an accident is both multi and interdisciplinary and goes through several approaches and depths. Due to the enormous complexity of the environmental analyses issues, mainly for being a science in development and not technological consensus, a macro methodology is presented for the purpose of identify areas that can be impacted by pipeline leakages and recommend improvements are applicable working as a table top response plan. The methodology of the Environmental Risk Mapping-MARA for pipelines rows, describes its concept and justifies the adoption of the environmental mapping during Risk Analyses studies, for PETROBRAS/TRANSPETRO new and existing pipelines. The development of this methodology is justified by the fact that it is a practical tool for identification, analysis and categorization of the more vulnerable environmental elements along a pipeline row and vicinities, during simulated occurrence of accidental spills of hydrocarbons in the environment. This methodology is a tool that allows Environmental Agencies and PETROBRAS a better way to manage in advance the Company emergencies. (author)

  4. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  5. Risk assessment in gas and oil pipelines based on the fuzzy Bow-tie technique

    OpenAIRE

    P. Heyrani; A. Baghaei

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Nowadays, gas and oil account for 60 percent of world energy resources. Transporting crude oil and its products are accomplished through a number of ways among which pipelines are of the utmost significance. Considering the extent of pipelines in installation and residential areas and also high potential for damage, the safety of these pipes and application of risk management principles have undeniable importance. Bow-tie risk assessment method is one of the ways to determine sa...

  6. Safety methodology and risk targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazimi, M.S.

    1983-01-01

    In assessing the potential safety concerns of fusion, the experience from other energy sources lead to a variety of safety assessment approaches. The available approaches are: (1) The maximum possible accident approach; (2) The maximum credible accident approach; (3) The probabilistic total risk assessment. In the first approach, the mechanistic development of the events leading to the safety concern is ignored. Instead, the total radioactivity of the plant is assumed accessible to the public. Such an approach is obviously conservative and unrealistic. In the second approach a selection is made among the most severe of the possible accidents, and the progression of the accident is modeled as mechanistically as possible. In this case, the passive and active accident mitigation capabilities of the plant are taken into consideration. The result is expected to be that none or only a fraction of the total radioactivity can be released to the public. The adverse effect of this approach is to concentrate attention on a particular accident class, and perhaps not allow for other classes, a judgement that may later become undesirable. The probabilistic risk assessment requires the safety analysts to consider all classes of accidents and estimate both the probabilities of their occurrences and their consequences. Thus, the plant design in fact is subjected to a thorough investigation and the impact of alterations in design can be reflected in the total risk estimate. The disadvantage of this approach lies in the absence of well defined acceptable risk criteria as well as the large effect of public perception factors on the accepted risk. This paper will review the impact of application of these approaches in determination of the level of protection needed against activation product release to the atmosphere. (author)

  7. Analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines; Analise de integridade e risco para dutos onshore

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Marco Aurelio [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The increasing expansion of the oil and gas industry in Brazil, the current legal requirements relating to security, health and environment in the industrial installations, is necessary that the companies, responsible by the operation of pipelines for oil and gas transport, adopt efficient techniques to assure the operational continuity of these of trustworthy form and insurance. To fulfill this important function it is important that the companies implement a management program to control and register the integrity of the pipelines during the all operational life cycle. Inside of this context of management of the integrity of pipelines, the DNV developed the software ORBIT Pipeline with the intention to serve as an important tool to monitor the technique and security condition of the pipeline, to define the frequency and content technician of the inspection program and to recommend the work of intervention or repair in pipeline when necessary. Additionally to these activities that are carried through directly in the ORBIT Pipeline, also an evaluation of the activity of third part and the land/soil movement is made inside of the systematic for analysis of integrity and risk for onshore pipelines performed by DNV. (author)

  8. Risk and resilience in the Nigerian oil sector: The economic effects of pipeline sabotage and theft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeeles, Adam; Akporiaye, Alero

    2016-01-01

    Political unrest in the Niger Delta has long been viewed as a hurdle for extracting maximum value from Nigeria's oil resources. Recently, investors and policymakers have laid blame for sector under-performance on pipeline sabotage and theft, and sounded the alarm for an impending ‘oil crisis’. However, our understanding of the economic effects of social action against oil companies is incomplete. Rigorous analysis has not heretofore been offered as evidence for such dire futures. Despite the obvious risk of pipeline interdiction, price dynamics and aggregate production respond minimally to pipeline interdiction. Based on quantitative analysis of the relationship among price, production and pipeline interdiction from multiple data sources covering different time intervals (monthly data from 2005 to 2014 and annual data from 1999 to 2013), we find no evidence of significant effects of pipeline interdiction on production and a weak relationship between pipeline interdiction and Bonny light crude prices. Reported losses in product are substantial, but there is no evidence of statistically significant impacts on price or production in the aggregate. Explanations for this counterintuitive result are cast in terms of sector resilience. The implications of this finding for producer risk and the likelihood of an impending ‘oil crisis’ are discussed. - Highlights: • We examine the impact of pipeline sabotage and theft on the Nigerian oil economy. • Econometric analysis of production, price and pipeline interdiction over different time intervals. • Aggregate price and production are impacted minimally by pipeline interdiction. • Oil sector business risk is high, but production is resilient to interruptions from social and political unrest.

  9. Hybrid Risk Management Methodology: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacky Siu-Lun Ting

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is a decision-making process involving considerations of political, social, economic and engineering factors with relevant risk assessments relating to a potential hazard. In the last decade, a number of risk management tools are introduced and employed to manage and minimize the uncertainty and threats realization to the organizations. However, the focus of these methodologies are different; in which companies need to adopt various risk management principles to visualize a full picture of the organizational risk level. Regarding to this, this paper presents a new approach of risk management that integrates Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM, Enterprise Risk Management (ERM and Business Recovery Planning (BCP for identifying and assessing risks as well as managing the consequences of realized residual risks. To illustrate the procedures of the proposed methodology, a logistic company ABC Limited is chosen to serve as a case study Through applying HHM and ERM to investigate and assess the risk, ABC Limited can be better evaluated the potential risks and then took the responsive actions (e.g. BCP to handle the risks and crisis in near future.

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology for risk management and regulatory applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See Meng Wong; Kelly, D.L.; Riley, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses the development and potential applications of PRA methodology for risk management and regulatory applications in the U.S. nuclear industry. The new PRA methodology centers on the development of This paper discusses the time-dependent configuration risk profile for evaluating the effectiveness of operational risk management programs at U.S. nuclear power plants. Configuration-risk profiles have been used as risk-information tools for (1) a better understanding of the impact of daily operational activities on plant safety, and (2) proactive planning of operational activities to manage risk. Trial applications of the methodology were undertaken to demonstrate that configuration-risk profiles can be developed routinely, and can be useful for various industry and regulatory applications. Lessons learned include a better understanding of the issues and characteristics of PRA models available to industry, and identifying the attributes and pitfalls in the developement of risk profiles

  11. Risk management methodology for RBMN project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borssatto, Maria F.B.; Tello, Cledola C.O.; Uemura, George

    2013-01-01

    RBMN Project has been developed to design, construct and commission a national repository to dispose the low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from the operation of nuclear power plants and other industries that use radioactive sources and materials. Risk is a characteristic of all projects. The risks arise from uncertainties due to assumptions associated with the project and the environment in which it is executed. Risk management is the method by which these uncertainties are systematically monitored to ensure that the objectives of the project will be achieved. Considering the peculiarities of the Project, that is, comprehensive scope, multidisciplinary team, apparently polemic due to the unknowing of the subject by the stake holders, especially the community, it is being developed a specific methodology for risk management of this Project. This methodology will be critical for future generations who will be responsible for the final stages of the repository. It will provide greater guarantee to the processes already implemented and will maintain a specific list of risks and solutions for this Project, ensuring safety and security of the repository throughout its life cycle that is the planned to last at least three hundred years. This paper presents the tools and processes already defined, management actions aimed at developing a culture of proactive risk in order to minimize threats to this Project and promote actions that bring opportunities to its success. The methodology is based on solid research on the subject, considering methodologies already established and globally recognized as best practices for project management. (author)

  12. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  13. Intersystem LOCA risk assessment: methodology and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.; Auflick, L.J.; Blackman, H.S.; Gertman, D.I.; Hanley, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors, hardware and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an intersystem loss-of-coolant accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish the goals of this program, a mehtodology has been developed for estimating ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. The steps in this methodology are briefly described, along with the results obtained from an application of the methodology at three pressurized water reactors. Also included are the results of a screening study of boiling water reactors. ((orig.))

  14. Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

    2017-11-01

    Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

  15. Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Paola; Parisi, Fulvio

    2016-01-01

    Natural-gas pipeline accidents mostly result in major damage even to buildings located far away. Therefore, proper safety distances should be observed in land use planning to ensure target safety levels for both existing and new buildings. In this paper, a quantitative risk assessment procedure is presented for the estimation of the annual probability of direct structural damage to reinforced concrete buildings associated with high-pressure natural-gas pipeline explosions. The procedure is based on Monte Carlo simulation and takes into account physical features of blast generation and propagation, as well as damage to reinforced concrete columns. The natural-gas jet release process and the flammable cloud size are estimated through SLAB one-dimensional integral model incorporating a release rate model. The explosion effects are evaluated by a Multi-Energy Method. Damage to reinforced concrete columns is predicted by means of pressure–impulse diagrams. The conditional probability of damage was estimated at multiple pressure–impulse levels, allowing blast fragility surfaces to be derived at different performance limit states. Finally, blast risk was evaluated and allowed the estimation of minimum pipeline-to-building safety distances for risk-informed urban planning. The probabilistic procedure presented herein may be used for performance-based design/assessment of buildings and to define the path of new natural-gas pipeline networks. - Highlights: • The safety of buildings against blast loads due to pipeline accidents is assessed. • A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is presented for natural-gas pipelines. • The annual risk of collapse of reinforced concrete building columns is evaluated. • Monte Carlo simulation was carried out considering both pipeline and column features. • A risk-targeted safety distance is proposed for blast strength class 9.

  16. Integrity management of Brazil-Bolivia gas pipeline to reduce risks due third party damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasconcellos, Carlos Renato Aragonez de; Monte, Oswaldo [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Colen, Eustaquio; Cunha, Roberto de Souza; Oliveira, Hudson Regis de [Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil, S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Lima, Rogerio de Souza [RSL Consultoria Geoprojetos (Brazil); Schultz Neto, Walter [Milton Braga Assessoria Tecnica (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    The Bolivia-Brazil Natural Gas Pipeline has 2.600 kilometers from Rio Grande City in Bolivia to Canoas City, in the south of Brazil. The right-of-way crosses a lot of types of topography and areas subjected to various kinds of anthropological actions, like areas in class locations 3, locals under agricultural activities, forests and minerals explorations, and near constructions of highway and railway, industrial constructions, new pipelines in the same right-of -way, channels, dams, that requires special projects to avoid that the gas pipeline could be subject to strengths that were not consider in the original design. The aim of this paper is to present the jobs developed by TBG during seven years of gas pipeline operations, as public awareness program, procedures to design, construct and inspect specials constructions along and near the right-of -way, control of mineral and forest explorations, monitoring and controlling of excavations on the right-of-way to install new pipelines and optical cables, to reduce risks of gas pipeline damage due third party, as a component of TBG' Managing Integrity Gas Pipeline Program. (author)

  17. Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shan, Xian; Liu, Kang; Sun, Pei-Liang

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential...

  18. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  19. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  20. Does Metformin Reduce Cancer Risks? Methodologic Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golozar, Asieh; Liu, Shuiqing; Lin, Joeseph A; Peairs, Kimberly; Yeh, Hsin-Chieh

    2016-01-01

    The substantial burden of cancer and diabetes and the association between the two conditions has been a motivation for researchers to look for targeted strategies that can simultaneously affect both diseases and reduce their overlapping burden. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, researchers have taken advantage of the availability and richness of administrative databases and electronic medical records to investigate the effects of drugs on cancer risk among diabetic individuals. The majority of these studies suggest that metformin could potentially reduce cancer risk. However, the validity of this purported reduction in cancer risk is limited by several methodological flaws either in the study design or in the analysis. Whether metformin use decreases cancer risk relies heavily on the availability of valid data sources with complete information on confounders, accurate assessment of drug use, appropriate study design, and robust analytical techniques. The majority of the observational studies assessing the association between metformin and cancer risk suffer from methodological shortcomings and efforts to address these issues have been incomplete. Future investigations on the association between metformin and cancer risk should clearly address the methodological issues due to confounding by indication, prevalent user bias, and time-related biases. Although the proposed strategies do not guarantee a bias-free estimate for the association between metformin and cancer, they will reduce synthesis of and reporting of erroneous results.

  1. Crossing Active Faults on the Sakhalin II Onshore Pipeline Route: Analysis Methodology and Basic Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vitali, Luigino; Mattiozzi, Pierpaolo

    2008-01-01

    Twin oil (20 and 24 inch) and gas (20 and 48 inch) pipeline systems stretching 800 km are being constructed to connect offshore hydrocarbon deposits from the Sakhalin II concession in the North to an LNG plant and oil export terminal in the South of Sakhalin island. The onshore pipeline route follows a regional fault zone and crosses individual active faults at 19 locations. Sakhalin Energy, Design and Construction companies took significant care to ensure the integrity of the pipelines, should large seismic induced ground movements occur during the Operational life of the facilities. Complex investigations including the identification of the active faults, their precise location, their particular displacement values and assessment of the fault kinematics were carried out to provide input data for unique design solutions. Lateral and reverse offset displacements of 5.5 and 4.5 m respectively were determined as the single-event values for the design level earthquake (DLE)--the 1000-year return period event. Within the constraints of a pipeline route largely fixed, the underground pipeline fault crossing design was developed to define the optimum routing which would minimize stresses and strain using linepipe materials which had been ordered prior to the completion of detailed design, and to specify requirements for pipe trenching shape, materials, drainage system, etc. This Paper describes the steps followed to formulate the concept of the special trenches and the analytical characteristics of the Model

  2. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  3. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

    2003-01-01

    The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

  4. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  5. Q methodology, risk training and quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKeown, M; Hinks, M; Stowell-Smith, M; Mercer, D; Forster, J

    1999-01-01

    The results of a Q methodological study of professional understandings of the notion of risk in mental health services within the UK are discussed in relation to the relevance for staff training and quality assurance. The study attempted to access the diversity of understandings of risk issues amongst a multi-professional group of staff (n = 60) attending inter-agency risk training workshops in 1998. Q methodology is presented as both an appropriate means for such inquiry and as a novel experiential technique for training purposes. A tentative argument is advanced that the qualitative accounts generated by Q research could assist in systematic reviews of quality, complementing the singularly quantitative approaches typically represented in the audit process.

  6. Methodology for risk analysis of nuclear installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Senne Junior, Murillo; Jordao, Elizabete

    2002-01-01

    Both the licensing standards for general uses in nuclear facilities and the specific ones require a risk assessment during their licensing processes. The risk assessment is carried out through the estimation of both probability of the occurrence of the accident, and their magnitudes. This is a complex task because the great deal of potential hazardous events that can occur in nuclear facilities difficult the statement of the accident scenarios. There are also many available techniques to identify the potential accidents, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their magnitudes. In this paper is presented a new methodology that systematizes the risk assessment process, and orders the accomplishment of their several steps. (author)

  7. Methodology for analyzing risk at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Hosik; Lee, Nayoung; Ham, Taekyu; Seo, Janghoon

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new methodology for evaluating the risk at nuclear facilities was developed. • Five measures reflecting all factors that should be concerned to assess risk were developed. • The attributes on NMAC and nuclear security culture are included as attributes for analyzing. • The newly developed methodology can be used to evaluate risk of both existing facility and future nuclear system. - Abstract: A methodology for evaluating risks at nuclear facilities is developed in this work. A series of measures is drawn from the analysis of factors that determine risks. Five measures are created to evaluate risks at nuclear facilities. These include the legal and institutional framework, material control, physical protection system effectiveness, human resources, and consequences. Evaluation attributes are developed for each measure and specific values are given in order to calculate the risk value quantitatively. Questionnaires are drawn up on whether or not a state has properly established a legal and regulatory framework (based on international standards). These questionnaires can be a useful measure for comparing the status of the physical protection regime between two countries. Analyzing an insider threat is not an easy task and no methodology has been developed for this purpose. In this study, attributes that could quantitatively evaluate an insider threat, in the case of an unauthorized removal of nuclear materials, are developed by adopting the Nuclear Material Accounting & Control (NMAC) system. The effectiveness of a physical protection system, P(E), could be analyzed by calculating the probability of interruption, P(I), and the probability of neutralization, P(N). In this study, the Tool for Evaluating Security System (TESS) code developed by KINAC is used to calculate P(I) and P(N). Consequence is an important measure used to analyze risks at nuclear facilities. This measure comprises radiological, economic, and social damage. Social and

  8. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. A risk-based sensor placement methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ronald W.; Kulesz, James J.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based sensor placement methodology is proposed to solve the problem of optimal location of sensors to protect population against the exposure to, and effects of, known and/or postulated chemical, biological, and/or radiological threats. Risk is calculated as a quantitative value representing population at risk from exposure at standard exposure levels. Historical meteorological data are used to characterize weather conditions as the frequency of wind speed and direction pairs. The meteorological data drive atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling of the threats, the results of which are used to calculate risk values. Sensor locations are determined via an iterative dynamic programming algorithm whereby threats detected by sensors placed in prior iterations are removed from consideration in subsequent iterations. In addition to the risk-based placement algorithm, the proposed methodology provides a quantification of the marginal utility of each additional sensor. This is the fraction of the total risk accounted for by placement of the sensor. Thus, the criteria for halting the iterative process can be the number of sensors available, a threshold marginal utility value, and/or a minimum cumulative utility achieved with all sensors

  10. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Risk-based Regulatory Evaluation Program methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Sanders, G.A.; Carlson, D.D.; Asselin, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of this DOE-supported Regulatory Evaluation Progrwam are to analyze and evaluate the safety importance and economic significance of existing regulatory guidance in order to assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for current generation and future design reactors. A risk-based cost-benefit methodology was developed to evaluate the safety benefit and cost of specific regulations or Standard Review Plan sections. Risk-based methods can be used in lieu of or in combination with deterministic methods in developing regulatory requirements and reaching regulatory decisions

  12. Environmental management systems methodology for pipeline systems implementation; Metodologia para implantacao de sistemas de gestao ambiental na implementacao de empreendimentos dutoviarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paz, Claudio Marques [JPTE Engenharia Ltda., Barueri, SP (Brazil); Pinaud, Rodrigo Zambrotti [AJR Engenharia - Seguranca, Meio Ambiente e Saude Ltda. (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The implementation of oil and gas pipeline systems are commonly made in a own or shared with power transmission, rail and crossroads right-of-way. Pipelines are a 'linear' structure, such as power transmission lines, which are established on landscapes with several conformations (accent slopes, swamp and rocky soils), including sites with high environmental sensibility. The services involved on pipeline implementation are very dynamic, involving several number of employees, vehicles, heavy equipment of excavation and welding that results in a high potential to cause environmental and social impacts. This article, based on the Brazilian and foreign experience on pipeline construction, proposes a methodology to prevent and minimize social and environmental impacts during the construction stage of a pipeline system. (author)

  13. Methodology for allocating reliability and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.

    1986-05-01

    This report describes a methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants. The work investigates the technical feasibility of allocating reliability and risk, which are expressed in a set of global safety criteria and which may not necessarily be rigid, to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner. The report also provides general discussions on the problem of reliability and risk allocation. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm. The work mainly addresses the first two steps of a typical decision analysis, i.e., (1) identifying alternatives, and (2) generating information on outcomes of the alternatives, by performing a multiobjective optimization on a PRA model and reliability cost functions. The multiobjective optimization serves as the guiding principle to reliability and risk allocation. The concept of ''noninferiority'' is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The final step of decision analysis, i.e., assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided, and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation, preference assessment, and uncertainty are discussed. 29 refs., 44 figs., 39 tabs

  14. Hydrate plugs in subsea pipelines and non-invasive methodology for localization

    OpenAIRE

    Joachim, Sannes

    2013-01-01

    Master's thesis in Offshore technology With the growth in global energy demand and the lack of new shallow-water and onshore opportunities, there is growing emphasis on oil and gas production in deep-water environments. A particular challenge for flow assurance engineers is to ensure pipelines remain free from restrictions created during operation. Hydrate plugging, in particular is, one of the major flow assurance challenge, and as oil and gas production moves into harsh and challengin...

  15. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soszynska, Joanna

    2010-01-01

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  16. Reliability and risk evaluation of a port oil pipeline transportation system in variable operation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soszynska, Joanna, E-mail: joannas@am.gdynia.p [Department of Mathematics, Gdynia Maritime University, ul. Morska 83, 81-225 Gdynia (Poland)

    2010-02-15

    The semi-Markov model of the system operation processes is proposed and its selected characteristics are determined. A system composed on multi-state components is considered and its reliability and risk characteristics are found. Next, the joint model of the system operation process and the system multi-state reliability is applied to the reliability and risk evaluation of the port oil pipeline transportation system. The pipeline system is described and its operation process unknown parameters are identified on the basis of real statistical data. The mean values of the pipeline system operation process unconditional sojourn times in particular operation states are found and applied to determining this process transient probabilities in these states. The piping different reliability structures in various its operation states are fixed and their conditional reliability functions on the basis of data coming from experts are approximately determined. Finally, after applying earlier estimated transient probabilities and system conditional reliability functions in particular operation states the unconditional reliability function, the mean values and standard deviations of the pipeline lifetimes in particular reliability states, risk function and the moment when the risk exceeds a critical value are found.

  17. Methodology and measures for preventing unacceptable flow-accelerated corrosion thinning of pipelines and equipment of NPP power generating units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomarov, G. V.; Shipkov, A. A.; Lovchev, V. N.; Gutsev, D. F.

    2016-10-01

    Problems of metal flow-accelerated corrosion (FAC) in the pipelines and equipment of the condensate- feeding and wet-steam paths of NPP power-generating units (PGU) are examined. Goals, objectives, and main principles of the methodology for the implementation of an integrated program of AO Concern Rosenergoatom for the prevention of unacceptable FAC thinning and for increasing operational flow-accelerated corrosion resistance of NPP EaP are worded (further the Program). A role is determined and potentialities are shown for the use of Russian software packages in the evaluation and prediction of FAC rate upon solving practical problems for the timely detection of unacceptable FAC thinning in the elements of pipelines and equipment (EaP) of the secondary circuit of NPP PGU. Information is given concerning the structure, properties, and functions of the software systems for plant personnel support in the monitoring and planning of the inservice inspection of FAC thinning elements of pipelines and equipment of the secondary circuit of NPP PGUs, which are created and implemented at some Russian NPPs equipped with VVER-1000, VVER-440, and BN-600 reactors. It is noted that one of the most important practical results of software packages for supporting NPP personnel concerning the issue of flow-accelerated corrosion consists in revealing elements under a hazard of intense local FAC thinning. Examples are given for successful practice at some Russian NPP concerning the use of software systems for supporting the personnel in early detection of secondary-circuit pipeline elements with FAC thinning close to an unacceptable level. Intermediate results of working on the Program are presented and new tasks set in 2012 as a part of the updated program are denoted. The prospects of the developed methods and tools in the scope of the Program measures at the stages of design and construction of NPP PGU are discussed. The main directions of the work on solving the problems of flow

  18. The concept of attributes and preventions of the variables that influence the pipeline risk in the Muhlbauer Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schafer, Alexandro G. [Universidade Federal do Pampa (UNIPAMPA), Bage, RS (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    There are several methods for the risk assessment and risk management applied to pipelines, among them the Muhlbauer's Method. Muhlbauer is an internationally recognized authority on pipeline risk management. The purpose of this model is to evaluate the public exposure to the risk and identify ways for management that risk in fact. The assessment is made by the attribution of quantitative values to the several items that influences in the pipeline risk. Because the ultimate goal of the risk assessment is to provide a means of risk management, it is sometimes useful to make a distinction between two types of risk variables. The risk evaluator can categorize each index risk variable as either an attribute or a prevention. This paper approaches the subject of the definition of attributes and preventions in the Muhlbauer basic model of risk assessment and also presents a classification of the variables that influence the risk in agreement with those two categories. (author)

  19. Methodologies for risk analysis in slope instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernabeu Garcia, M.; Diaz Torres, J. A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is an approach to the different methodologies used in conducting landslide risk maps so that the reader can get a basic knowledge about how to proceed in its development. The landslide hazard maps are increasingly demanded by governments. This is because due to climate change, deforestation and the pressure exerted by the growth of urban centers, damage caused by natural phenomena is increasing each year, making this area of work a field of study with increasing importance. To explain the process of mapping a journey through each of the phases of which it is composed is made: from the study of the types of slope movements and the necessary management of geographic information systems (GIS) inventories and landslide susceptibility analysis, threat, vulnerability and risk. (Author)

  20. Inhibitor selection for internal corrosion control of pipelines. 1: Laboratory methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papavinasam, S.; Revie, R.W.; Attard, M. [CANMET, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada). Materials Technology Lab.; Demoz, A.; Sun, H.; Donini, J.C.; Michaelian, K. [CANMET, Devon, Alberta (Canada). Western Research Centre

    1999-11-01

    Various laboratory methodologies to evaluate corrosion inhibitors are reviewed. Two new methodologies, high-temperature, high-pressure jet impingement (HTHPJI) and high-temperature, high-pressure rotating electrode (HTHPRE), are presented. Flow patterns and hydrodynamic parameters of rotating cage are presented.

  1. Risk methodologies for offsite hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Eichler, T.V.; Wiedermann, A.H.

    1983-01-01

    A number of suggestions have been advanced in recent years concerning the risks posed to nuclear power plants by offsite hazardous materials relative to (1) the regulatory approach including considerations of minimum and safe standoff distances, exclusion distances, site acceptance ceilings and floors, screening distances and screening probabilities, plant design, etc., and (2) the analysis and evaluation procedures such as material screening criteria, plant vulnerability, standarized physical models, etc. An evaluation of current analyses and approaches indicates that this complex problem, variety of approaches, and safety concerns may be better accommodated by developing criteria and treatments along the lines of a so-called conditional risk approach. Specifically, the probability (P) of some ultimate consequence (C) occurring from an accident (A) involving hazardous materials is given as P(C) = P(C/A) x P(A). Assuming that the plant to accident site standoff distance is the fundamental independent variable of the risk methodology, certain conditional risk designations and conditions can be made and are presented

  2. Risk management in pipelines; Gestion de riesgos en gasoductos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Fernando C.; Pozzo, Victor H. [TGN - Transportadora de Gas del Norte S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2003-07-01

    TGN operates a natural gas transportation network 7.700 kilometers in length which comprises most of Argentina and part of Chile. The pipes run through planes, desert areas and mountains with very different types of soils and population density. This document is an overview of the main risks that the system faces, as well as the monitoring performed and the tools employed to reduce those risks. (author)

  3. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  4. On the risks of transport of liquid and gaseous energy sources in pipelines; Zu den Risiken des Transports fluessiger und gasfoermiger Energietraeger in Pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konersmann, Rainer; Kuehl, Christiane; Ludwig, Joerg

    2009-11-30

    The failure of a pipeline depends on many causal factors which cannot be predicted with certainty and which even vary by region. For the purposes of consistent traffic route and land use planning it would therefore be desirable to at least be able to estimate the consequential damages of a pipeline rupture. Publications on pipeline accidents are hardly available, at least not in German speaking regions. Where they are, they are usually fire brigade reports. However, these are not sufficient for a documentation of the whole situation. For this reason the Federal Institute for Materials Testing and Research has evaluated a large number of international inspection reports and publications and compiled them into the present research report giving special consideration to the types of risk and in particular consequential damage.

  5. Study of risk in gasoline and diesel transportation pipelines in Mexico; Estudio del riesgo en ductos de transporte de gasolinas y diesel en Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivera Villasenor, Ruperto Enrique [Universidad Nacional Autonoma Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico); Rodriguez Castellanos, Alejandro [Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    2005-10-15

    A methodology of risk operative analysis for damages, which are derived from theft of gasoline in Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) pipelines by third parts (clandestine pipes) is proposed. Originally, the problematic is studied from the global perspective of pipelines accidents happened in the world, in United States of America and in Mexico, and later it approaches specifically the environment that the industry of Pemex-Refinery pipelines. When the results are obtained, it is concluded that the factor of risk with more occurrence probability of pipelines, is due to damages for third parts, in first term, and followed by the damages originated by corrosion in second term. So a diagnostic is made of the physical vulnerability degree on the rights of way of Pemex. [Spanish] Se propone una metodologia de analisis de riesgo operativo en poliductos debido a danos por terceras partes (tomas clandestinas), originados del hurto de gasolinas en ductos de Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). La problematica se aborda desde una perspectiva global de accidentes en los ductos de Pemex-Refinacion. Del analisis y resultados obtenidos, se concluye que el factor de riesgo con mayor probabilidad de ocurrencia en poliductos, es debido a danos por terceras partes, en primer termino, seguido de los danos originados por corrosion. Asimismo se hace un diagnostico del grado de vulnerabilidad fisica de los derechos de via de Pemex.

  6. Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

    2005-07-01

    PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)

  7. Assessment of ecological and human health risks of heavy metal contamination in agriculture soils disturbed by pipeline construction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Peng; Xiao, Jun; Wang, Yafeng; Chen, Liding

    2014-02-28

    The construction of large-scale infrastructures such as nature gas/oil pipelines involves extensive disturbance to regional ecosystems. Few studies have documented the soil degradation and heavy metal contamination caused by pipeline construction. In this study, chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) levels were evaluated using Index of Geo-accumulation (Igeo) and Potential Ecological Risk Index (RI) values, and human health risk assessments were used to elucidate the level and spatial variation of heavy metal pollution risks. The results showed that the impact zone of pipeline installation on soil heavy metal contamination was restricted to pipeline right-of-way (RoW), which had higher Igeo of Cd, Cu, Ni and Pb than that of 20 m and 50 m. RI showed a declining tendency in different zones as follows: trench > working zone > piling area > 20 m > 50 m. Pipeline RoW resulted in higher human health risks than that of 20 m and 50 m, and children were more susceptible to non-carcinogenic hazard risk. Cluster analysis showed that Cu, Ni, Pb and Cd had similar sources, drawing attention to the anthropogenic activity. The findings in this study should help better understand the type, degree, scope and sources of heavy metal pollution from pipeline construction to reduce pollutant emissions, and are helpful in providing a scientific basis for future risk management.

  8. Assessment of Ecological and Human Health Risks of Heavy Metal Contamination in Agriculture Soils Disturbed by Pipeline Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Shi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale infrastructures such as nature gas/oil pipelines involves extensive disturbance to regional ecosystems. Few studies have documented the soil degradation and heavy metal contamination caused by pipeline construction. In this study, chromium (Cr, cadmium (Cd, copper (Cu, nickel (Ni, lead (Pb and zinc (Zn levels were evaluated using Index of Geo-accumulation (Igeo and Potential Ecological Risk Index (RI values, and human health risk assessments were used to elucidate the level and spatial variation of heavy metal pollution risks. The results showed that the impact zone of pipeline installation on soil heavy metal contamination was restricted to pipeline right-of-way (RoW, which had higher Igeo of Cd, Cu, Ni and Pb than that of 20 m and 50 m. RI showed a declining tendency in different zones as follows: trench > working zone > piling area > 20 m > 50 m. Pipeline RoW resulted in higher human health risks than that of 20 m and 50 m, and children were more susceptible to non-carcinogenic hazard risk. Cluster analysis showed that Cu, Ni, Pb and Cd had similar sources, drawing attention to the anthropogenic activity. The findings in this study should help better understand the type, degree, scope and sources of heavy metal pollution from pipeline construction to reduce pollutant emissions, and are helpful in providing a scientific basis for future risk management.

  9. Methodology for development of risk indicators for offshore platforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeien, K.; Sklet, S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a generic methodology for development of risk indicators for petroleum installations and a specific set of risk indicators established for one offshore platform. The risk indicators should be used to control the risk during operation of platforms. The methodology is purely risk-based and the basis for development of risk indicators is the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). In order to identify high risk contributing factors, platform personnel are asked to assess whether and how much the risk influencing factors will change. A brief comparison of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for nuclear power plants and quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for petroleum platforms is also given. (au)

  10. Risk assessment for pipelines with active defects based on artificial intelligence methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anghel, Calin I. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, University ' Babes-Bolyai' , Cluj-Napoca (Romania)], E-mail: canghel@chem.ubbcluj.ro

    2009-07-15

    The paper provides another insight into the pipeline risk assessment for in-service pressure piping containing defects. Beside of the traditional analytical approximation methods or sampling-based methods safety index and failure probability of pressure piping containing defects will be obtained based on a novel type of support vector machine developed in a minimax manner. The safety index or failure probability is carried out based on a binary classification approach. The procedure named classification reliability procedure, involving a link between artificial intelligence and reliability methods was developed as a user-friendly computer program in MATLAB language. To reveal the capacity of the proposed procedure two comparative numerical examples replicating a previous related work and predicting the failure probabilities of pressured pipeline with defects were presented.

  11. Risk assessment for pipelines with active defects based on artificial intelligence methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anghel, Calin I.

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides another insight into the pipeline risk assessment for in-service pressure piping containing defects. Beside of the traditional analytical approximation methods or sampling-based methods safety index and failure probability of pressure piping containing defects will be obtained based on a novel type of support vector machine developed in a minimax manner. The safety index or failure probability is carried out based on a binary classification approach. The procedure named classification reliability procedure, involving a link between artificial intelligence and reliability methods was developed as a user-friendly computer program in MATLAB language. To reveal the capacity of the proposed procedure two comparative numerical examples replicating a previous related work and predicting the failure probabilities of pressured pipeline with defects were presented.

  12. Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

    2015-01-01

    The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

  13. Probabilistic methodology for turbine missile risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.; Frank, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for estimation of the probabilities of turbine-generated missile damage to nuclear power plant structures and systems. Mathematical models of the missile generation, transport, and impact events have been developed and sequenced to form an integrated turbine missile simulation methodology. Probabilistic Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the plant impact and damage probabilities. The methodology has been coded in the TURMIS computer code to facilitate numerical analysis and plant-specific turbine missile probability assessments. Sensitivity analyses have been performed on both the individual models and the integrated methodology, and probabilities have been estimated for a hypothetical nuclear power plant case study. (orig.)

  14. 49 CFR Appendix B to Part 195 - Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older Hazardous Liquid and Carbon Dioxide Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... pressure tested, based on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The first step is to determine the... test requirements depending on the inherent risk of a given pipeline segment. The overall risk... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk-Based Alternative to Pressure Testing Older...

  15. Innovation tube transport using helicopters to minimize the construction risk of Urucu-Manaus pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, Jean Luis C. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mendes, Jeane R.; Rodrigues, Jose Alberto S.; Rocha, Katia Rosilene S. [CONCREMAT Engenharia e Tecnologia Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Our purpose is to focus on the Safety, Environment and Health (SEH) Management, integrated to pipeline construction and assembly, aiming at minimizing the risks involving the transportation and handling of 20-inch pipes. Please note that peculiar, challenging situations occur when constructing a gas pipeline at the Coari-Anama Section, which leads to some difficulty in the exploitation of oil and gas, where fragile elements represented by the environment and man are faced in this evolution and progress process. Overcoming the severe conditions while streaming 196.6-km-length of pipes in flooded lands no doubt represented a real challenge. State-of-the-art techniques have been implemented such as air transportation of pipes, with two large-sized helicopters being used (Kamov and S64 Skycrane). This has demanded integrated actions to be adopted, involving transportation of concrete pipes, double joints, pipesak, hydraulic excavators, net carrier containing assorted materials, skids and natural gas pressure, measurement and filtering equipment. Nevertheless, we have succeeded in reducing the rate of exposure to the construction and assembly process risks, thus minimizing occurrences and improving the conditions of processes, where, had the conventional method been used, would have led to a great amount of incidents and accidents, resulting mainly from the huge logistic difficulties, which would expose the task force to high potential risks. (author)

  16. Leakage Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Transportation by Pipeline at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, Decatur, Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazzoldi, A.; Oldenburg, C. M.

    2013-12-17

    The Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) is designed to confirm the ability of the Mt. Simon Sandstone, a major regional saline-water-bearing formation in the Illinois Basin, to store 1 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injected over a period of three years. The CO{sub 2} will be provided by Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) from its Decatur, Illinois, ethanol plant. In order to transport CO{sub 2} from the capture facility to the injection well (also located within the ADM plant boundaries), a high-pressure pipeline of length 3,200 ft (975 m) has been constructed, running above the ground surface within the ADM plant footprint. We have qualitatively evaluated risks associated with possible pipeline failure scenarios that lead to discharge of CO{sub 2} within the real-world environment of the ADM plant in which there are often workers and visitors in the vicinity of the pipeline. There are several aspects of CO{sub 2} that make its transportation and potential leakage somewhat different from other substances, most notable is its non-flammability and propensity to change to solid (dry ice) upon strong decompression. In this study, we present numerical simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods of the release and dispersion of CO{sub 2} from individual hypothetical pipeline failures (i.e., leaks). Failure frequency of the various components of a pipeline transportation system over time are taken from prior work on general pipeline safety and leakage modeling and suggest a 4.65% chance of some kind of pipeline failure over the three-years of operation. Following the Precautionary Principle (see below), we accounted for full-bore leakage scenarios, where the temporal evolution of the mass release rate from the high-pressure pipeline leak locations was simulated using a state-of-the-art Pipe model which considers the thermodynamic effects of decompression in the entire pipeline. Failures have been simulated at four representative locations along

  17. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  18. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  19. The methodology of risk perception research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoberg, L.

    1998-01-01

    Risk perception is frequently held to be crucial in the understanding and management of risk in policy contexts. The present paper takes as a starting point the notion that risk perception, of the public, of experts and other special groups, is important and hence the question arises how it should be investigated

  20. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  1. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  2. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  3. Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program: Overview of Assessment Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... Over the last three years, a team of national laboratory experts, working in partnership with the energy industry, has successfully applied the methodology as part of OCIP's Vulnerability and Risk Analysis Program (VRAP...

  4. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  5. Insights from implementation of a risk management methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahn, J.A.; Germann, R.P.; Jacobs, R.R.

    1992-01-01

    In 1988, GPU Nuclear (GPUN) Corporation embarked on a research effort to identify or develop an appropriate methodology for proactively managing risks. The objective of this effort was to increase its ability to identify potential risks and to aid resource allocation decision making for risk control. Such a methodology was presented at a risk management symposium sponsored by GPUN in September of 1989. A pilot project based on this methodology has been conducted at GPUN to test and validate the elements of the methodology and to compare the results of its application with current corporate methods for guiding risk decision making. The pilot project also led to a follow-up policy-capturing study to elicit information about the various risk decision-making models of GPUN decision makers. The combination of these endeavors provided an opportunity to gain numerous insights with respect to understanding the real value of a risk management process, obtaining acceptance of and commitment to risk management and improving operational aspects of the methodology

  6. New methodology to quantify risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munera, H.A.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1980-01-01

    A novel approach for establishing acceptability of risk is presented and illustrated by an application to the case of the light water reactors. The advantage of the method is that it takes into consideration the shape of the probability distribution function over consequences, instead of simply using the expected value of this distribution. 25 refs

  7. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  8. Method for environmental risk analysis of marine terminals, process industry terminals, pipelines and shipping lanes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nissen-Lie, Torild R.; Aspholm, Ole O. [DNV Energy, Oslo (Norway)

    2008-07-01

    The paper describes a quantitative method for analyzing the environmental risk of marine terminals, process industry terminals, pipelines and shipping lanes. The method has been used both in Norway and elsewhere in the world; calculating the risk for environmental resources as fish, seabirds and waterfowls, marine mammals, otters, sea turtles and salt marches and other shoreline/sub tidal habitats. The environmental risk is the product of the probability of acute releases and the environmental consequences. Consequences for vulnerable species and habitats are calculated based on oil drift modelling results and a consequence matrix consisting of 5-7 consequence parameter and five consequence levels of increasing seriousness. An average consequence level is calculated on basis of defined weighting factors to provide an overall consequence value for each spill scenario for each species/habitat. An environmental risk analysis highlights the hazards that have to be managed in order to run an environmentally sustainable operation and can also provide input to establish cost-effective oil spill response measures. (author)

  9. MetaCompare: A computational pipeline for prioritizing environmental resistome risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Min; Pruden, Amy; Chen, Chaoqi; Heath, Lenwood S; Xia, Kang; Zhang, Liqing

    2018-04-26

    The spread of antibiotic resistance is a growing public health concern. While numerous studies have highlighted the importance of environmental sources and pathways of the spread of antibiotic resistance, a systematic means of comparing and prioritizing risks represented by various environmental compartments is lacking. Here we introduce MetaCompare, a publicly-available tool for ranking 'resistome risk,' which we define as the potential for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) to be associated with mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and mobilize to pathogens based on metagenomic data. A computational pipeline was developed in which each ARG is evaluated based on relative abundance, mobility, and presence within a pathogen. This is determined through assembly of shotgun sequencing data and analysis of contigs containing ARGs to determine if they contain sequence similarity to MGEs or human pathogens. Based on the assembled metagenomes, samples are projected into a 3-D hazard space and assigned resistome risk scores. To validate, we tested previously published metagenomic data derived from distinct aquatic environments. Based on unsupervised machine learning, the test samples clustered in the hazard space in a manner consistent with their origin. The derived scores produced a well-resolved ascending resistome risk ranking of: wastewater treatment plant effluent, dairy lagoon, hospital sewage.

  10. Risk Analysis on Leakage Failure of Natural Gas Pipelines by Fuzzy Bayesian Network with a Bow-Tie Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Shan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pipeline is the major mode of natural gas transportation. Leakage of natural gas pipelines may cause explosions and fires, resulting in casualties, environmental damage, and material loss. Efficient risk analysis is of great significance for preventing and mitigating such potential accidents. The objective of this study is to present a practical risk assessment method based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network for risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage. Firstly, identify the potential risk factors and consequences of the failure. Then construct the Bow-tie model, use the quantitative analysis of Bayesian network to find the weak links in the system, and make a prediction of the control measures to reduce the rate of the accident. In order to deal with the uncertainty existing in the determination of the probability of basic events, fuzzy logic method is used. Results of a case study show that the most likely causes of natural gas pipeline leakage occurrence are parties ignore signage, implicit signage, overload, and design defect of auxiliaries. Once the leakage occurs, it is most likely to result in fire and explosion. Corresponding measures taken on time will reduce the disaster degree of accidents to the least extent.

  11. Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng; Wang, Xue

    2017-01-01

    As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor. (paper)

  12. Recommendations for benefit-risk assessment methodologies and visual representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughes, Diana; Waddingham, Ed; Mt-Isa, Shahrul

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to draw on the practical experience from the PROTECT BR case studies and make recommendations regarding the application of a number of methodologies and visual representations for benefit-risk assessment. METHODS: Eight case studies based on the benefit......-risk balance of real medicines were used to test various methodologies that had been identified from the literature as having potential applications in benefit-risk assessment. Recommendations were drawn up based on the results of the case studies. RESULTS: A general pathway through the case studies...

  13. Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

    1984-01-01

    The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

  14. Enhancing the seismic margin review methodology to obtain risk insights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budnitz, R.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses methods for obtaining risk insights from the seismic margin review (SMR) methodology. The SMR methodology was originally developed in 1984-1987 with the objective of analyzing an individual nuclear power plant to ascertain whether the plant has the ability to withstand earthquakes substantially beyond the design-basis earthquake without suffering a core-damage accident. Recently, in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) Individual Plant Evaluation for External Events (IPEEE) program, the SMR methodology has been developed further by NRC to allow plants to identify plant-specific vulnerabilities (in the IPEEE sense) to seismic events. The objective of these enhancements has been to provide a methodology for IPEEE seismic review that is substantially less expensive than a full-scope seismic PRA, but that achieves the IPEEE's vulnerability-search objectives. In this paper, the steps involved in the enhanced methodology are discussed

  15. Multi-criteria aid for group decision making on gas pipeline risk analysis; Apoio multicriterio a decisao em grupo na analise de risco em gasodutos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Yuri G.; Cavalcante, Cristiano A.V.; Brito, Anderson J. de M.; Almeida, Adiel T. de [Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Risks are, by nature, subjective, and therefore, complex. They present multidimensional aspects and involve various stakeholders. The pipelines transmission and distribution of natural gas (NG) involve various scenarios of risks, resulting from the distinct environments where the supply chain of NG is inserted. This paper proposes a multi criteria model for group decision support, based on the GDSS PROMETHEE approach, for risk assessment in pipelines sections. The proposed model aims to establish a ranking between the sections of a pipeline network, in order to provide insights to the definition of risk mitigation actions. (author)

  16. A methodology for flood risk appraisal in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriščiukaitienė Irena

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a methodology for flood risk mapping as envisaged by the Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks [Directive 2007/60/EC]. Specifically, we aimed at identifying the types of flood damage that can be estimated given data availability in Lithuania. Furthermore, we present the main sources of data and the associated cost functions. The methodology covers the following main types of flood threats: risk to inhabitants, risk to economic activity, and social risk. A multi-criteria framework for aggregation of different risks is proposed to provide a comprehensive appraisal of flood risk. On the basis of the proposed research, flood risk maps have been prepared for Lithuania. These maps are available for each type of flood risk (i.e. inhabitants, economic losses, social risk as well as for aggregate risk. The results indicate that flood risk management is crucial for western and central Lithuania, whereas other parts of the country are not likely to suffer from significant losses due to flooding.

  17. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  18. Interfacing system LOCA risk assessment: Methodology and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeher, J.A.; Hanson, D.J.

    1991-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring a research program to develop an improved understanding of the human factors hardware, and accident consequence issues that dominate the risk from an Interfacing Systems Loss-of-Coolant Accident (ISLOCA) at a nuclear power plant. To accomplish this program, a methodology has been developed for estimating the core damage frequency and risk associated with an ISLOCA. The steps of the methodology are described with emphasis on one step which is unique, estimation of the probability of rupture of the low pressure systems. A trial application of the methodology was made for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The results are believed to be plant specific and indicate that human errors during startup and shutdown could be significant contributors to ISLOCA risk at the plant evaluated. 10 refs

  19. InSAR for risk-based asset management of pipeline networks (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heuvel, F. van den; Schouten,M.; Abspoel, L.; Courage, W.; Kruse, H.; Langius, E.

    2016-01-01

    Pipeline networks for gas and water are the lifelines of our society. Most pipelines are buried, which impedes direct monitoring of the structural reliability of the networks. The behavior of the soil surrounding the pipes may impose hazardous loads or deformations threatening the integrity of the

  20. Risk based asset management of pipeline networks for gas and water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abspoel, L.M.; Courage, W.M.G.; Broeck, W. van den; Kruse, H.

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline networks for gas and water are the lifelines of our society. Their presence and correct functioning translates in benefits and any disruption, malfunctioning or ruptures represent hazards for the community. Most pipelines are buried, which impedes direct monitoring of the structural

  1. Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology Rev 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenner, Robert D.; White, Michael K.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.; Andrews, William B.

    2000-01-01

    Documentation of the methodology used to calculate relative hazard and risk measure results for the DOE complex wide risk profiles. This methodology is used on major site risk profiles. In February 1997, the Center for Risk Excellence (CRE) was created and charged as a technical, field-based partner to the Office of Science and Risk Policy (EM-52). One of the initial charges to the CRE is to assist the sites in the development of ''site risk profiles.'' These profiles are to be relatively short summaries (periodically updated) that present a broad perspective on the major risk related challenges that face the respective site. The risk profiles are intended to serve as a high-level communication tool for interested internal and external parties to enhance the understanding of these risk-related challenges. The risk profiles for each site have been designed to qualitatively present the following information: (1) a brief overview of the site, (2) a brief discussion on the historical mission of the site, (3) a quote from the site manager indicating the site's commitment to risk management, (4) a listing of the site's top risk-related challenges, (5) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's current risk picture, (6) a brief discussion and detailed table presenting the site's future risk reduction picture, and (7) graphic illustrations of the projected management of the relative hazards at the site. The graphic illustrations were included to provide the reader of the risk profiles with a high-level mental picture to associate with all the qualitative information presented in the risk profile. Inclusion of these graphic illustrations presented the CRE with the challenge of how to fold this high-level qualitative risk information into a system to produce a numeric result that would depict the relative change in hazard, associated with each major risk management action, so it could be presented graphically. This report presents the methodology developed

  2. Risk-Informed Assessment Methodology Development and Application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung Goo Chi; Seok Jeong Park; Chul Jin Choi; Ritterbusch, S.E.; Jacob, M.C.

    2002-01-01

    Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) has been working with Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) on a US Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project through a collaborative agreement established for the domestic NERI program. The project deals with Risk-Informed Assessment (RIA) of regulatory and design requirements of future nuclear power plants. An objective of the RIA project is to develop a risk-informed design process, which focuses on identifying and incorporating advanced features into future nuclear power plants (NPPs) that would meet risk goals in a cost-effective manner. The RIA design methodology is proposed to accomplish this objective. This paper discusses the development of this methodology and demonstrates its application in the design of plant systems for future NPPs. Advanced conceptual plant systems consisting of an advanced Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) and Emergency Feedwater System (EFWS) for a NPP were developed and the risk-informed design process was exercised to demonstrate the viability and feasibility of the RIA design methodology. Best estimate Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analyses were performed to validate the PSA success criteria for the NPP. The results of the analyses show that the PSA success criteria can be met using the advanced conceptual systems and that the RIA design methodology is a viable and appropriate means of designing key features of risk-significant NPP systems. (authors)

  3. Environmental management of the OSBAT 24'' oil pipeline: methodological and conceptual innovations; Gestao ambiental do Oleoduto OSBAT 24{sup :} inovacoes metodologicas e conceituais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garibaldi, Celia Maria; Serra, Ricardo Novaes; Martiniano, Flavio [LENC - Laboratorio de Engenharia e Consultoria Ltda., Cotia, SP (Brazil); Masumoto, Cinthia; Frazao, Luciana Rocha [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The objective of this article is to present considerations about the design, systematic and methodology used for conducting the environmental management of the work of maintenance of OSBAT 24'' Pipeline, what is located in the stretch between Sao Sebastiao City (center) and Camburi district, in Sao Paulo State. It presents a set of criteria, concepts, techniques, ideas and practices that stand out for its innovative character, and contribute effectively to the challenge of sustainable development, and new techniques of conciliation between environmental responsibility and investment in oil sector and gas. The general direction of the article is to reflect on the experience, seeking to broadcast both conceptual and methodological aspects responsible for the successes of OSBAT 24'' environmental management, and point out obstacles found in it's implementation. (author)

  4. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  5. Risk management methodology applied at thermal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coppolino, R.

    2007-01-01

    Nowadays, the responsibility of the environmental risks, connected the productive processes and to the products of an enterprise, represent one of the main aspects which an adequate management approach has to foresee. In this paper it has been evaluated the guidelines followed by Edipower Thermoelectric Power plant of S. Filippo di Mela (ME). These guidelines were given in order to manage the chemical risk connected to the usage of various chemicals with which the workers get in touch when identifying the risks of the methodology introduced by the AZ/NZS 4360:2004 Risk Management Standard

  6. Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

    1988-01-01

    The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

  7. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; Dillon, R.T.; Tierney, M.S.; Davis, H.T.; McGrath, P.E.; Pearson, F.J. Jr.; Shaw, H.R.; Helton, J.C.; Donath, F.A.

    1978-10-01

    The Fuel Cycle Risk Analysis Division of Sandia Laboratories is funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to develop a methodology for assessment of the long-term risks from radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media. The first phase of this work, which is documented in this report, involves the following: (1) development of analytical models to represent the processes by which radioactive waste might leave the waste repository, enter the surface environment and eventually reach humans and (2) definition of a hypothetical ''reference system'' to provide a realistic setting for exercise of the models in a risk or safety assessment. The second phase of this work, which will be documented in a later report, will involve use of the analytical models in a demonstration risk or safety assessment of the reference system. The analytical methods and data developed in this study are expected to form the basis for a portion of the NRC repository licensing methodology

  8. Development of risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, S. K.; Park, S. J.; Park, B. R.; Kim, M. R.; Choi, C. J.

    2001-01-01

    It has been assessed that the capital cost for future nuclear power plants needs to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors such as KNGR and System 80+. Such reduction in the capital cost will require a fundamental re-evaluation of the industry standards and regulatory basis under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. The objective of this study is to develop the risk-informed assessment (RIA) design methodology for future nuclear power plants. In order to meet this objective, the design simplification method is developed and RIA design methodology exercised for conceptual system. For the methodology verification, simplified conceptual ECCS and feedwater system are developed, then LOCA sensitivity analyses and agressive secondary cooldown analyses for these systems are performed. In addition, the probability safety assessment (PSA) model for LOCA is developed and the validation of RIA design methodology is demonstrated

  9. Using Pipelined XNOR Logic to Reduce SEU Risks in State Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Martin; Zheng, Xin; Katanyoutant, Sunant

    2008-01-01

    Single-event upsets (SEUs) pose great threats to avionic systems state machine control logic, which are frequently used to control sequence of events and to qualify protocols. The risks of SEUs manifest in two ways: (a) the state machine s state information is changed, causing the state machine to unexpectedly transition to another state; (b) due to the asynchronous nature of SEU, the state machine's state registers become metastable, consequently causing any combinational logic associated with the metastable registers to malfunction temporarily. Effect (a) can be mitigated with methods such as triplemodular redundancy (TMR). However, effect (b) cannot be eliminated and can degrade the effectiveness of any mitigation method of effect (a). Although there is no way to completely eliminate the risk of SEU-induced errors, the risk can be made very small by use of a combination of very fast state-machine logic and error-detection logic. Therefore, one goal of two main elements of the present method is to design the fastest state-machine logic circuitry by basing it on the fastest generic state-machine design, which is that of a one-hot state machine. The other of the two main design elements is to design fast error-detection logic circuitry and to optimize it for implementation in a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) architecture: In the resulting design, the one-hot state machine is fitted with a multiple-input XNOR gate for detection of illegal states. The XNOR gate is implemented with lookup tables and with pipelines for high speed. In this method, the task of designing all the logic must be performed manually because no currently available logic synthesis software tool can produce optimal solutions of design problems of this type. However, some assistance is provided by a script, written for this purpose in the Python language (an object-oriented interpretive computer language) to automatically generate hardware description language (HDL) code from state

  10. Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    WSTAT). In the early stages of the V&V for development risk, it was discovered that the original risk rating and methodology did not actually...4932 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT ...WSTA has opened trade space exploration by allowing the tool to evaluate trillions of potential system configurations to then return a handful of

  11. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  12. Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

  13. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  14. Pipeline engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Henry

    2003-01-01

    PART I: PIPE FLOWSINTRODUCTIONDefinition and Scope Brief History of PipelinesExisting Major PipelinesImportance of PipelinesFreight (Solids) Transport by PipelinesTypes of PipelinesComponents of PipelinesAdvantages of PipelinesReferencesSINGLE-PHASE INCOMPRESSIBLE NEWTONIAN FLUIDIntroductionFlow RegimesLocal Mean Velocity and Its Distribution (Velocity Profile)Flow Equations for One-Dimensional AnalysisHydraulic and Energy Grade LinesCavitation in Pipeline SystemsPipe in Series and ParallelInterconnected ReservoirsPipe NetworkUnsteady Flow in PipeSINGLE-PHASE COMPRESSIBLE FLOW IN PIPEFlow Ana

  15. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  16. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  17. Risk importance measures in the dynamic flowgraph methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyrväinen, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents new risk importance measures applicable to a dynamic reliability analysis approach with multi-state components. Dynamic reliability analysis methods are needed because traditional methods, such as fault tree analysis, can describe system's dynamical behaviour only in limited manner. Dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) is an approach used for analysing systems with time dependencies and feedback loops. The aim of DFM is to identify root causes of a top event, usually representing the system's failure. Components of DFM models are analysed at discrete time points and they can have multiple states. Traditional risk importance measures developed for static and binary logic are not applicable to DFM as such. Some importance measures have previously been developed for DFM but their ability to describe how components contribute to the top event is fairly limited. The paper formulates dynamic risk importance measures that measure the importances of states of components and take the time-aspect of DFM into account in a logical way that supports the interpretation of results. Dynamic risk importance measures are developed as generalisations of the Fussell-Vesely importance and the risk increase factor. -- Highlights: • New risk importance measures are developed for the dynamic flowgraph methodology. • Dynamic risk importance measures are formulated for states of components. • An approach to handle failure modes of a component in DFM is presented. • Dynamic risk importance measures take failure times into account. • Component's influence on the system's reliability can be analysed in detail

  18. Risk assessment in gas and oil pipelines based on the fuzzy Bow-tie technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Heyrani

    2016-04-01

      Conclusion: Considering the recognized factors leading to destruction of pipelines and their most notable outcomes, instructions on how to control and reduce the potential consequences were suggested, with emphasis on the removal of the most probable causes.

  19. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)

  1. Development of a low-level waste risk methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, J.E.; Falconer, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment method is presented for performance evaluation of low-level waste disposal facilities. The associated program package calculates the risk associated with postulated radionuclide release and transport scenarios. Risk is computed as the mathematical product of two statistical variables: the dose consequence of a given release scenario, and its occurrence probability. A sample risk calculation is included which demonstrates the method. This PRA method will facilitate evaluation of facility performance, including identification of high risk scenarios and their mitigation via optimization of site parameters. The method is intended to be used in facility licensing as a demonstration of compliance with the performance objectives set forth in 10 CFR Part 61, or in corresponding state regulations. The Low-Level Waste Risk Methodology is being developed under sponsorship of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  2. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  3. Model for qualitative evaluation of risk in ducts through the fuzzy logic in conformity with the methodology of IBR; Modelo para avaliacao qualitativa do risco em oleodutos atraves da logica fuzzy segundo a metodologia da IBR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishina, Koje Daniel Vasconcelos [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica da Bahia (CEFET-BA), Salvador, BA (Brazil); Silva, Jose Felicio da; Silva, Joao Bosco de Aquino [Universidade Federal da Paraiba (UFPb), Joao Pessoa, PB (Brazil)

    2006-07-01

    This work considers a system for qualitative evaluation of the terrestrial risk in pipelines, based in the methodology of the Inspection Based on Risk and the Fuzzy Logic. For this one developed a matrix of risk associated with the oil transport and its derivatives, that define the type of tracking and the regularity of inspection with Pig Instrumented in function of the level of risk found in the stretch in study. This matrix of risk considers the probabilities and the consequences associates to the damage for corrosion. The evaluation of the considered system was based on the consistency of the found levels of risk, in relation to that it would be found in the practical one. The gotten results had demonstrated that the use of the methodology of the IBR and the Fuzzy Logic can be used jointly as one sufficiently efficient alternative technique in the evaluation of risk in corroded pipe-lines. (author)

  4. Methodology to relieve tensions in buried pipelines in areas of slow land moviment; Metodologia para alivio de tensoes em dutos enterrados em areas sujeitas a movimentacao lenta do solo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paula, Angelo J; Stanger, Daniel; Soares, Jose P; Novaes, Jose L; Bonini, Luis H; Moya, Marcelo; Sacramento, Waldemar; Ribeiro, Walter M [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    This paper shows the methodology developed by TRANSPETRO Team of Geotecnia and used to relieve the MERLUZA pipeline tensions. After the problem is detect by usual Systematic Geotechnical Inspections and confirmed by direct and indirect measures, which identify deformations (curve model) caused by strength of land movement, this methodology is apply in this section. In this intervention the standard procedures consist on the following steps: test 'in situ' on the surface of pipeline iron; installation of instruments to measure the relief of tensions; controlled excavation of the ditch; installation of permanent instruments to measure the future new deformations and tensions; and the recomposition of the place with compact land. (author)

  5. IMPROVING METHODOLOGY OF RISK IDENTIFICATION OF OCCUPATIONAL DANGEROUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. BOCHKOVSKYI

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, according to the analysis of statistical data, correlation between the amount of occupational injuries and occupationaldiseases in Ukraine within last 5 years is defined. Also, using methodology of the International Labor Organizationcorrelcation between the amount of accident fatalities and general number of accidents in Ukraine and EU countries (Austria, GreatBritain, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Hungry, Finland, France is defined. It is shown that in spite of the positive dynamicsof decreasing amount of occupational injuries, the number of occupational diseases in Ukraine always increases. The comparativeanalysis of the ratio of the number of accident fatalities to the total number of registered accidents showed that, on average, Ukraineexceeds the EU countries by this indicator by 100 times.It is noted, that such negative indicators (in particular, increasing amount of occupational diseases, may occure because ofimperfect methodology for identifying the risks of professional dangerous.Also, it is ascertained that basing on the existed methodology, the identefication process of occupational dangerous isquite subjective, which reduces objectivity of conducting quantitative assessment. In order to eliminate defined drawnbacks it is firsttime proposed to use corresponding integral criterion to conduct the process of quantitative risk assessmentTo solve this problem authors formulate and propose an algorithm of improving methodology of a process of analysing dangerousand harmful production effects (DHPE which are the mainest reasons of occupational dangerous.The proposed algorithm includes implementation of four following successive steps: DHPE identification, indication of theirmaximum allowed threshold of concentrations (levels, identification of the sources of identified DHPE, esimation of consequencesof manifestation.The improved proposed methodology allows indentify risks of occurrence occupational dangerous in systems

  6. Risk management in methodologies of information technology and communications projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Carrillo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2013/10/02 - Accepted: 2013/12/13At present there are methodologies that have several alternatives and methods to manage projects of Information and Communication Technologies. However, these do not cover a solution for the technology events that can occur in the industry, government, education, among others. In the technology market there are several models to identify and analyze risks according to relevant aspects of their area of specialty e.g. projects, in software development, communications, information security and business alignment. For this reason, this research conducted an evaluation of risk management activities of the methodologies used mostly to know which of them includes more correspondence with basic elements of IT using a rating scale.

  7. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  8. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  9. 75 FR 45591 - Pipeline Safety: Notice of Technical Pipeline Safety Advisory Committee Meetings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR Part... Committee Meetings AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA); DOT. ACTION... safety standards, risk assessments, and safety policies for natural gas pipelines and for hazardous...

  10. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  11. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  12. Pipeline system operability review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Kjell [Det Norske Veritas (Norway); Davies, Ray [CC Technologies, Dublin, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Pipeline operators are continuously working to improve the safety of their systems and operations. In the US both liquid and gas pipeline operators have worked with the regulators over many years to develop more systematic approaches to pipeline integrity management. To successfully manage pipeline integrity, vast amounts of data from different sources needs to be collected, overlaid and analyzed in order to assess the current condition and predict future degradation. The efforts undertaken by the operators has had a significant impact on pipeline safety, nevertheless, during recent years we have seen a number of major high profile accidents. One can therefore ask how effective the pipeline integrity management systems and processes are. This paper will present one methodology 'The Pipeline System Operability Review' that can evaluate and rate the effectiveness of both the management systems and procedures, as well as the technical condition of the hardware. The result from the review can be used to compare the performance of different pipelines within one operating company, as well as benchmark with international best practices. (author)

  13. Pipeline system operability review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Kjell [Det Norske Veritas (Norway); Davies, Ray [CC Technologies, Dublin, OH (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Pipeline operators are continuously working to improve the safety of their systems and operations. In the US both liquid and gas pipeline operators have worked with the regulators over many years to develop more systematic approaches to pipeline integrity management. To successfully manage pipeline integrity, vast amounts of data from different sources needs to be collected, overlaid and analyzed in order to assess the current condition and predict future degradation. The efforts undertaken by the operators has had a significant impact on pipeline safety, nevertheless, during recent years we have seen a number of major high profile accidents. One can therefore ask how effective the pipeline integrity management systems and processes are. This paper will present one methodology 'The Pipeline System Operability Review' that can evaluate and rate the effectiveness of both the management systems and procedures, as well as the technical condition of the hardware. The result from the review can be used to compare the performance of different pipelines within one operating company, as well as benchmark with international best practices. (author)

  14. Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

    2013-04-01

    , helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

  15. U.S. Natural Gas Storage Risk-Based Ranking Methodology and Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Folga, Steve [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Portante, Edgar [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Shamsuddin, Shabbir [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tompkins, Angeli [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Talaber, Leah [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); McLamore, Mike [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kavicky, Jim [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Conzelmann, Guenter [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levin, Todd [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-10-01

    This report summarizes the methodology and models developed to assess the risk to energy delivery from the potential loss of underground gas storage (UGS) facilities located within the United States. The U.S. has a total of 418 existing storage fields, of which 390 are currently active. The models estimate the impacts of a disruption of each of the active UGS facilities on their owners/operators, including (1) local distribution companies (LDCs), (2) directly connected transporting pipelines and thus on the customers in downstream States, and (3) third-party entities and thus on contracted customers expecting the gas shipment. Impacts are measured across all natural gas customer classes. For the electric sector, impacts are quantified in terms of natural gas-fired electric generation capacity potentially affected from the loss of a UGS facility. For the purpose of calculating the overall supply risk, the overall consequence of the disruption of an UGS facility across all customer classes is expressed in terms of the number of expected equivalent residential customer outages per year, which combines the unit business interruption cost per customer class and the estimated number of affected natural gas customers with estimated probabilities of UGS disruptions. All models and analyses are based on publicly available data. The report presents a set of findings and recommendations in terms of data, further analyses, regulatory requirements and standards, and needs to improve gas/electric industry coordination for electric reliability.

  16. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  17. Basic overview towards the assessment of landslide and subsidence risks along a geothermal pipeline network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Astisiasari, Astisiasari; Van Westen, C.J.; Jetten, V.; Van Der Meer, F.D.; Hizbaron, Dyah Rahmawati

    2018-01-01

    An operating geothermal power plant consists of installation units that work systematically in a network. The pipeline network connects various engineering structures, e.g. well pads, separator, scrubber, and power station, in the process of transferring geothermal fluids to generate electricity.

  18. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario

  19. Risks of Terrorism, Homicide and Illness: a Methodological Consideration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Chasdi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A recurring question posed to researchers is whether or not terrorism poses similar degrees of risk as other man-made or natural disasters. There are some specialists, such as John Mueller, who argue that somewhat ironically, the threat of terrorism is vastly exaggerated.[1] This begs the question : compared to what? The underlying aim of this Research Note is to point out some basic methodological and contextual issues to consider, rather than making an attempt to provide hard answers regarding relative individual and collective risks. However, an effort is made to place some empirical findings into appropriate political and social contexts. The framework for discussion includes: basic conceptual problems regarding the notion of “risk”; a comparison of certain basic terrorism incident rates with rates for homicides and illness; and identification of possible future directions to gauge risk assessment within the context of a more holistic systems perspective. 

  20. Pipelines. Economy's veins; Pipelines. Adern der Wirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feizlmayr, Adolf; Goestl, Stefan [ILF Beratende Ingenieure, Muenchen (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    According to the existing prognoses more than 1 million km of gas pipelines, oil pipelines and water pipelines are built up to the year 2030. The predominant portion is from gas pipelines. The safe continued utilization of the aging pipelines is a large challenge. In addition, the diagnostic technology, the evaluation and risk assessment have to be developed further. With the design of new oil pipelines and gas pipelines, aspects of environmental protection, the energy efficiency of transport and thus the emission reduction of carbon dioxide, the public acceptance and the market strategy of the exporters gain in importance. With the offshore pipelines one soon will exceed the present border of 2,000 m depth of water and penetrate into larger sea depths.

  1. Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

  2. A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

  3. ECU@Risk, a methodology for risk management applied to MSMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Crespo Martínez

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Information is the most valuable element for any organization or person in this new century, which, for many companies, is a competitive advantage asset (Vásquez & Gabalán, 2015. However, despite the lack of knowledge about how to protect it properly or the complexity of international standards that indicate procedures to achieve an adequate level of protection, many organizations, especially the MSMEs sector, fails to achieve this goal.Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for information security risk management, which is applicable to the business and organizational environment of the Ecuadorian MSME sector. For this purpose, we analyze several methodologies as Magerit, CRAMM (CCTA Risk Analysis and Management Method, OCTAVE-S, Microsoft Risk Guide, COBIT 5 COSO III. These methodologies are internationally used in risk management of information; in the light of the frameworks of the industry: ISO 27001, 27002, 27005 and 31000.

  4. Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

    2012-04-01

    The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

  5. Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo

    2011-01-01

    Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

  6. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da

    2015-01-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  7. Risk assessment by convergence methodology in RDD scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Olga Maria Oliveira de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de; Rebello, Wilson Freitas; Silva, Gabriel Fidalgo Queiroz da, E-mail: olgafisica2013@hotmail.com, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com, E-mail: rebello@ime.eb.br, E-mail: profgabriel.fisica@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Secao de Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    An RDD event occurs by explosion and radioactive material dispersion where particles containing radioactive material can reach great distances from original point of the explosion and generating a plume of contamination. The use of a RDD is regarded as the most likely scenario involving radiological terrorist material. Accurate information on the population and the estimated dose are essential for analysis during the decision process. This work intends to present a proposal for a convergence of methodologies using the computer simulation codes Hotspot Health Physics 3.0 and the statistical model Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to calculate the approximate dose depending on the distance of the original point of the explosion of an RDD. From those data, the relative risk of developing tumors is estimated, as well as the probability of causation. At a later stage, the proposed combination of actions intended to help the decision-making and employment response personnel in emergency protection measures, such as sheltering and evacuation through the RESRAD-RDD software. The convergence of the proposed methodology can accelerate the process of acquiring information during the first hours of a radiological scenario and provide proper management of medical response and organization of the overall response. (author)

  8. Cernavoda NPP risk - Based test and maintenance planning - Methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, G.; Popa, P.; Petrescu, A.; Naum, M.; Gutu, M.

    1997-01-01

    The Cernavoda Power Plant starts the commercial operation in November 1996. During operation of the nuclear power plant, several mandatory tests and maintenance are performed on stand-by safety system components to ensure their availability in case of accident. The basic purpose of such activities is the early detection of any failure and degradation, and timely correction of deteriorations. Because of the large number of such activities, emphasis on plant safety and allocation of resources becomes difficult. The probabilistic model and methodology can be effectively used to obtain the risk significance of these activities so that the resources are directed to the most important areas. The proposed Research Contract activity is strongly connected with other safety related areas under development. Since, the Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation Level 1 PSA Study (CPSE) was performed and now the study is revised taking into account the as-built information, it is recommended to implement into the model the necessary modeling features to support further PSA application, especially related to Test and Maintenance optimization. Methods need to be developed in order to apply the PSA model including risk information together with other needed information for Test and Maintenance optimization. Also, in parallel with the CPSE study updating, the software interface for the PSA model is under development (Risk Monitor Software class), methods and models needing to be developed for the purpose of using it for qualified monitoring of Test and Maintenance Strategy efficiency. Similar, the Data Collection System need to be appropriate for the purpose of an ongoing implementation of a risk - based Test and Maintenance Strategy. (author). 4 refs, 1 fig

  9. Proposal of methodology for to implement system of environmental management at works of pipeline; Proposta de metodologia para implementacao de SGA - Sistema de Gestao Ambiental em obras de dutos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Maria Rita de Cassia de Souza [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Proposal presentation of the methodology to implements the environmental management system in works of pipelines with the objective to guarantee the efficacy in the management of the environmental impact and aspects of the activities of the construction and assembly of pipelines, identifiable through the environmental impact study. It initially makes brief explanation over the environmental national politics through of some topics of the mains generals norms of the legislation. After them, the presentation of the methodology through the model of management PDCA: Plan - Do - Check - Act, recommended for the ABNT NBR ISO 14001:2004. For each stage of the model are listed the activities and, of exceptional manner, it makes explanation of the environmental performance evaluation, accordant the ABNT NBR ISO 10031:2004. (author)

  10. Methodology to relieve tensions in buried pipelines in areas of slow land moviment; Metodologia para alivio de tensoes em dutos enterrados em areas sujeitas a movimentacao lenta do solo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paula, Angelo J.; Stanger, Daniel; Soares, Jose P.; Novaes, Jose L.; Bonini, Luis H.; Moya, Marcelo; Sacramento, Waldemar; Ribeiro, Walter M. [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    This paper shows the methodology developed by TRANSPETRO Team of Geotecnia and used to relieve the MERLUZA pipeline tensions. After the problem is detect by usual Systematic Geotechnical Inspections and confirmed by direct and indirect measures, which identify deformations (curve model) caused by strength of land movement, this methodology is apply in this section. In this intervention the standard procedures consist on the following steps: test 'in situ' on the surface of pipeline iron; installation of instruments to measure the relief of tensions; controlled excavation of the ditch; installation of permanent instruments to measure the future new deformations and tensions; and the recomposition of the place with compact land. (author)

  11. Contracting Selection for the Development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    ...-Effectiveness Risk Tool and contractor selection for the development of the Range Rule Risk Methodology. The audit objective was to determine whether the Government appropriately used the Ordnance and Explosives Cost-Effectiveness Risk Tool...

  12. Methodology for Risk Analysis of Dam Gates and Associated Operating Equipment Using Fault Tree Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patev, Robert C; Putcha, Chandra; Foltz, Stuart D

    2005-01-01

    .... This report summarizes research on methodologies to assist in quantifying risks related to dam gates and associated operating equipment, and how those risks relate to overall spillway failure risk...

  13. Environmental restoration risk-based prioritization work package planning and risk ranking methodology. Revision 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dail, J.L.; Nanstad, L.D.; White, R.K.

    1995-06-01

    This document presents the risk-based prioritization methodology developed to evaluate and rank Environmental Restoration (ER) work packages at the five US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Field Office (DOE-ORO) sites [i.e., Oak Ridge K-25 Site (K-25), Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS), Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant (Y-12)], the ER Off-site Program, and Central ER. This prioritization methodology was developed to support the increased rigor and formality of work planning in the overall conduct of operations within the DOE-ORO ER Program. Prioritization is conducted as an integral component of the fiscal ER funding cycle to establish program budget priorities. The purpose of the ER risk-based prioritization methodology is to provide ER management with the tools and processes needed to evaluate, compare, prioritize, and justify fiscal budget decisions for a diverse set of remedial action, decontamination and decommissioning, and waste management activities. The methodology provides the ER Program with a framework for (1) organizing information about identified DOE-ORO environmental problems, (2) generating qualitative assessments of the long- and short-term risks posed by DOE-ORO environmental problems, and (3) evaluating the benefits associated with candidate work packages designed to reduce those risks. Prioritization is conducted to rank ER work packages on the basis of the overall value (e.g., risk reduction, stakeholder confidence) each package provides to the ER Program. Application of the methodology yields individual work package ''scores'' and rankings that are used to develop fiscal budget requests. This document presents the technical basis for the decision support tools and process

  14. Methodology for Check Valve Selection to Maintain the Integrity of Pipeline against the Check Valve Slam for the KIJANG Research Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dayong; Yoon, Hyungi; Seo, Kyoungwoo; Kim, Seonhoon [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The check valve slam results in a water hammer and unexpected system pressure rise in the pipeline. Sometimes, the pressure rise by check valve slam in the pipeline exceeds the design pressure and then it causes the rupture of pipeline. Therefore, check valve slam significantly influences on the integrity of pipe. Especially, this it is most likely to occur by check valve installed in the discharge of pump when one pump trips among the two or more running in parallel pump system. This study focuses on the check valve selection to maintain the integrity of PCS pipeline against the check valve slam. If design head for KJRR PCS pipeline is higher than the sum of static head and 11 m, any type check valves can be installed at the discharge of pump. However, if design head for KJRR PCS pipeline is lower than the sum of static head and 11 m, installation of swing and ball check on the discharge of pump must be avoid to prevent the rupture of PCS pipeline.

  15. Methodology for Check Valve Selection to Maintain the Integrity of Pipeline against the Check Valve Slam for the KIJANG Research Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dayong; Yoon, Hyungi; Seo, Kyoungwoo; Kim, Seonhoon

    2016-01-01

    The check valve slam results in a water hammer and unexpected system pressure rise in the pipeline. Sometimes, the pressure rise by check valve slam in the pipeline exceeds the design pressure and then it causes the rupture of pipeline. Therefore, check valve slam significantly influences on the integrity of pipe. Especially, this it is most likely to occur by check valve installed in the discharge of pump when one pump trips among the two or more running in parallel pump system. This study focuses on the check valve selection to maintain the integrity of PCS pipeline against the check valve slam. If design head for KJRR PCS pipeline is higher than the sum of static head and 11 m, any type check valves can be installed at the discharge of pump. However, if design head for KJRR PCS pipeline is lower than the sum of static head and 11 m, installation of swing and ball check on the discharge of pump must be avoid to prevent the rupture of PCS pipeline

  16. Leadership Pipeline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmholdt, Claus Westergård

    2012-01-01

    Artiklen analyserer grundlaget for Leadership Pipeline modellen med henblik på en vurdering af substansen bag modellen, og perspektiverne for generalisering af modellen til en dansk organisatorisk kontekst.......Artiklen analyserer grundlaget for Leadership Pipeline modellen med henblik på en vurdering af substansen bag modellen, og perspektiverne for generalisering af modellen til en dansk organisatorisk kontekst....

  17. Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Kyung Min; Jae, Moosung

    2008-01-01

    The potential magnitudes of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences) are analyzed and evaluated quantitatively in this study. The system dynamics methodology has been applied to predict the time-dependent behaviors such as feedback and dependency as well as to model uncertain behavior of complex physical system. It is used to construct the transfer mechanisms of time dependent radioactivity concentration and to evaluate them. Dynamic variations of radio activities are simulated by considering several effects such as deposition, weathering, washout, re-suspension, root uptake, translocation, leaching, senescence, intake, and excretion of soil. The time-dependent radio-ecological model applicable to Korean specific environment has been developed in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term deposition of radio-nuclides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. An ingestion food chain model can estimate time dependent radioactivity concentrations in foodstuffs. And it is also shown that the system dynamics approach is useful for analyzing the phenomenon of the complex system as well as the behavior of structure values with respect to time. The output of this model (Bq ingested per Bq m - 2 deposited) may be multiplied by the deposition and a dose conversion factor (Gy Bq -1 ) to yield organ-specific doses. The model may be run deterministically to yield a single estimate or stochastic distributions by 'Monte-Carlo' calculation that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model uncertainties. The results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various parameters occurred in consequence analysis, as well as to assessing risk reduction effects in accident management. (author)

  18. Response, remediation and risk management of a crude oil pipeline spill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rose, P.A.; Livingstone, W.R.

    1997-01-01

    A light crude oil spill occurred along a section of pipeline near the bank of a major river of a southern Alberta community in December of 1995. Crude oil was observed at ground surface over an area of 2,000 sq m at the top of the river slope. It had also migrated down slope through the subgrade soils and along the groundwater table toward the river. The initial emergency response measures included removing and disposing of oil-stained vegetation and snow, and the containment and recovery of free oil pooled on the ground surface. Other measures included the drilling of test holes and boreholes and the installation of groundwater monitoring and recovery wells. It was determined that phase-separated crude oil had accumulated at the water table within the flood plain sediments near the river. The water was remediated on-site to Canadian drinking water quality standards. The zone of impacted water was effectively captured, and ground water quality steadily improved

  19. Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S; Reid, Kim R; Pollock, Margaret C; Campleman, Sharan L

    2012-01-01

    Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate

  20. Weight-of-evidence environmental risk assessment of dumped chemical weapons after WWII along the Nord-Stream gas pipeline in the Bornholm Deep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Hans; Fauser, Patrik; Thomsen, Marianne; Larsen, Jørn Bo

    2012-05-15

    In connection with installation of two natural gas pipelines through the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany, there has been concern regarding potential re-suspension of historically dumped chemical warfare agents (CWA) in a nearby dump site and the potential environmental risks associated. 192 sediment and 11 porewater samples were analyzed for CWA residues, both parent and metabolites in 2008 and 2010 along the pipeline corridor next to the dump site. Macrozoobenthos and background variables were also collected and compared to the observed CWA levels and predicted potential risks. Detection frequencies and levels of intact CWA found were low, whereas CWA metabolites were more frequently found. Re-suspension of CWA residue-containing sediment from installation of the pipelines contributes marginally to the overall background CWA residue exposure and risk along the pipeline route. The multivariate weight-of-evidence analysis showed that physical and background parameters of the sediment were of higher importance for the biota than observed CWA levels. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatial data mining of pipeline data provides new wave of O and M capital cost optimization opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, D. [QM4 Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This paper discussed the cost optimization benefits of spatial data mining in upstream oil and gas pipeline operations. The data mining method was used to enhance the characterization and management of internal corrosion risk and to optimize pipeline corrosion inhibition, as well as to identify pipeline network hydraulic bottlenecks. The data mining method formed part of a quality-based pipeline integrity management program. Results of the data mining study highlighted trends in well operational data and historical pipeline failure events. Use of the methodology resulted in significant savings. It was demonstrated that the key to a successful pipeline management model is a complete inventory characterization and determination of failure susceptibility profiles through the application of rigorous data standards. 4 tabs., 8 figs.

  2. A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data input...

  3. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  4. Methodology of nanotechnogy's risks analysis for health and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkulova, I.P.

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is a multidisciplinary field, and an important tool for understanding and managing the potential risks from nanotechnologies. As new technologies develop, a crucial task is to understand the health and environmental impacts and to identify potential risks. (authors)

  5. Development of reliability-based design and assessment standards for onshore gas transmission pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Joe; Rothwell, Brian [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Nessim, Maher; Zhou, Wenxing [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Onshore pipelines have traditionally been designed with a deterministic stress based methodology. The changing operating environment has however imposed many challenges to the pipeline industry, including heightened public awareness of risk, more challenging natural hazards and increased economic competitiveness. To meet the societal expectation of pipeline safety and enhance the competitiveness of the pipeline industry, significant efforts have been spent for the development of reliability-based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology. This paper will briefly review the technology development in the RBDA area and the focus will be on the progresses in the past years in standard development within the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) and the Canadian Standard Association (CSA) organizations. (author)

  6. Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

    2001-01-01

    As the operation experiences of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Korea accumulate and NPP safety functions become enhanced, the role of stable and optimal NPP operation within acceptable safety criteria becomes important at present. To accomplish the goal of safe and optimal operation, maintenance and its related activities should be regarded as the issues of most concern. Studies of methodologies for maintenance improvement and optimization have focused on system performance rather than on the hardware itself. From this point of view, the probabilistic methods are most useful. In terms of risk including core damage frequency and unavailability, the cause that might impact plant safety during normal maintenance activities can be identified and evaluated effectively. The results from these probabilistic analyses can provide insightful information for the reallocation of risk-contributing maintenance activity. This information can be utilized in a way that separates the significant risk-contributing maintenance activities from each other unless they are timely related. In Korea, the risk-monitoring program for operating NPPs is under development and will be implemented in 2003. To accomplish the risk-monitoring program objectives, suitable risk evaluation methods should be developed before the implementation of the risk-monitoring program. The plant configuration assessment methodology was developed for these reasons, and this method is to incorporate the field experiences into the risk calculation exactly within the limit of probabilistic methods. During normal plant operation, the plant operational risk changes frequently depending on the status of the plant system and the arrangement of the components. Specific plant systems or components are typically removed from service because of random equipment failure, planned preventive/predictive maintenance, corrective maintenance, surveillance testing, and operational bypass activities, and such events usually impact the

  7. Fishing activity near offshore pipelines, 2017

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Machiels, Marcel

    2018-01-01

    On the North Sea bottom lie numerous pipelines to link oil- or gas offshore drilling units, - platforms and processing stations on land. Although pipeline tubes are coated and covered with protective layers, the pipelines risk being damaged through man-made hazards like anchor dropping and fishing

  8. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  9. On fire risk/methodology for the next generation of reactors and nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, K.C.; Alesso, H.P.; Altenbach, T.J.

    1992-01-01

    Methodologies for including fire in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been evolving during the last ten years. Many of these studies show that fire risk constitutes a significant percentage of external events, as well as the total core damage frequency. This paper summarizes the methodologies used in the fire risk analysis of the next generation of reactors and existing DOE nuclear facilities. Methodologies used in other industries, as well as existing nuclear power plants, are also discussed. Results of fire risk studies for various nuclear plants and facilities are shown and compared

  10. Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

    2018-04-01

    There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

  11. A proposed methodology for performing risk analysis of state radiation control programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornsife, W.P.

    1996-01-01

    This paper is comprised of viewgraphs from a conference presentation. Topics discussed include barriers to effective risk assessment and management, and real versus perceived risk for various radiation programs in the state of Pennsylvania. Calculation results for Pennsylvania are provided for low-level radioactive waste transportation risks, indoor radon risk, and cancer morbidity risk from x-rays. A methodology for prioritizing radiation regulatory programs based on risk is presented with calculations for various Pennsylvania programs

  12. Methodology for the assessment of human health risks associated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies have shown that the aquatic environment can be polluted by contaminates that are accumulated by freshwater fish and this may pose a health risk to the ... bioaccumulation potential and health risks of analytes, sound sampling design, risk assessment procedures and performing monitoring at different scales and ...

  13. Leadership Pipeline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmholdt, Claus Westergård

    2013-01-01

    I artiklen undersøges det empiriske grundlag for Leader- ship Pipeline. Først beskrives Leadership Pipeline modellen om le- delsesbaner og skilleveje i opadgående transitioner mellem orga- nisatoriske ledelsesniveauer (Freedman, 1998; Charan, Drotter and Noel, 2001). Dernæst sættes fokus på det...... forholdet mellem kontinuitet- og diskontinuitet i ledel- seskompetencer på tværs af organisatoriske niveauer præsenteres og diskuteres. Afslutningsvis diskuteres begrænsningerne i en kompetencebaseret tilgang til Leadership Pipeline, og det foreslås, at succesfuld ledelse i ligeså høj grad afhænger af...

  14. Bank stability as a risk factor for pipeline infrastructure: a Scottish example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniatis, Georgios; Williams, Richard; Hoey, Trevor

    2017-04-01

    Bank erosion is a spatially variable process controlled by a number of factors that are interrelated (e.g. grain size, moisture content, organic content, vegetation, bank gradient). As a risk factor, bank erosion has been strongly connected to the failure of infrastructure that crosses or is adjacent to morphologically dynamic rivers. To manage this risk, comprehensive infrastructure asset management programs should include risk assessment of all structures that cross or are near a river. In Scotland, a significant proportion of cross-river infrastructure is pipe bridges, for both clean and waste water. These river crossings are maintained and managed by Scottish Water, a supplier responsible for a 48,000 km long drinking water pipe network and a 52,000 km long wastewater pipe network. Recently, Scottish Water began a comprehensive pipe bridge asset inspection program, which incorporates the acquisition of data to assess riverbank stability. The first step in the development of this database is the use of a prototype software application (a tablet app) which simplifies the surveying process by framing specific geomorphological questions and surveying tasks. As a result, the surveys can be conducted by inspectors with no specialist training in bank stability assessment and then reviewed by those with more expertise. Here, results are presented of a review of survey data, enabling the identification of the assets that are most at risk from bank erosion. The assessment focuses on assets from catchments in two contrasting areas of Scotland; the Hebrides and Glasgow. The uncertainty analysis focuses on input data quality and the variability of information available for desk based risk assessments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In parallel, considerations regarding the extension of this framework towards a unified strategy for assessing bank erosion are discussed such as the selection of a statistical framework and the catchment classification process

  15. The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandian, S.

    2005-01-01

    There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

  16. [Risk maps. The concept and the methodology for their development].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Gómez, M M

    1994-01-01

    In this article the concept of risk map is revised. It is considered as an instrument for the knowledge of risks and damages in a certain environment. A historic revision is made analyzing the birth and evolution of the concept. Different experiences and types of maps in different countries are described. Finally the operative steps, the data sources and the risk indicators which should be used in Spain are included.

  17. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  18. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a good understanding of duration gap model used for managing interest rate risk. The article starts with a overview of interest rate risk and explain how this type of risk should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.The world for financial institutions has changed during the last 20 years, and become riskier and more competitive-driven. After the deregulation of the financial market, banks had to take on extensive risk in order to earn sufficient returns. Interest rate volatility has increased dramatically over the past twenty-five years and for that an efficient management of this interest rate risk is strong required. In the last years banks developed a variety of methods for measuring and managing interest rate risk. From these the most frequently used in real banking life and recommended by Basel Committee are based on: Reprising Model or Funding Gap Model, Maturity Gap Model, Duration Gap Model, Static and Dynamic Simulation. The purpose of this article is to give a

  19. Geologic modeling in risk assessment methodology for radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    Under contract to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the University of New Mexico is developing a computer based assessment methodology for evaluating public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of radioactive waste in geologic formations. Methodology incorporates a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. The release model and its application to a model repository in bedded salt is described. Fault trees are constructed to provide the relationships between various geologic and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material beyond the immediate environs of the repository. The environmental model includes: 1) the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, 2) pathways from these environmental concentrations, and 3) radiation dose to man. Finally, economic results are used to compare and assess various disposal configurations as a basis for formulatin

  20. Methodology for assessment of safety risk due to potential accidents in US gaseous diffusion plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.H.; O'Kain, D.U.

    1991-01-01

    Gaseous diffusion plants that operate in the United States represent a unique combination of nuclear and chemical hazards. Assessing and controlling the health, safety, and environmental risks that can result from natural phenomena events, process upset conditions, and operator errors require a unique methodology. Such a methodology has been developed for the diffusion plants and is being utilized to assess and control the risk of operating the plants. A summary of the methodology developed to assess the unique safety risks at the US gaseous diffusion plants is presented in this paper

  1. Methodology of life cycle cost with risk expenditure for offshore process at conceptual design stage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nam, Kiil; Chang, Daejun; Chang, Kwangpil; Rhee, Taejin; Lee, In-Beum

    2011-01-01

    This study proposed a new LCC (life cycle cost) methodology with the risk expenditure taken into account for comparative evaluation of offshore process options at their conceptual design stage. The risk expenditure consisted of the failure risk expenditure and the accident risk expenditure. The former accounted for the production loss and the maintenance expense due to equipment failures while the latter reflected the asset damage and the fatality worth caused by disastrous accidents such as fire and explosion. It was demonstrated that the new LCC methodology was capable of playing the role of a process selection basis in choosing the best of the liquefaction process options including the power generation systems for a floating LNG (Liquefied natural gas) production facility. Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. The new methodology with the risk expenditure, however, indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines should be the optimum choice, mainly due to its better availability and safety. -- Highlights: → The study presented the methodology of the LCC with the risk expenditure for the conceptual design of offshore processes. → The proposed methodology demonstrated the applicability of the liquefaction unit with the power generation system of LNG FPSO. → Without the risk expenditure, a simple economic comparison apparently favored the mixed refrigerant cycle which had the better efficiency. → The new methodology indicated that the nitrogen expansion cycle driven by steam turbines is the optimum choice due to its better availability and safety.

  2. Interest Rate Risk Management using Duration Gap Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2008-01-01

    should be measured and managed within an asset-liability management. Then the articles takes a short look at methods for measuring interest rate risk and after that explains and demonstrates how can be used Duration Gap Model for managing interest rate risk in banks.

  3. Practical approach on gas pipeline compression system availability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Sidney Pereira dos [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Kurz, Rainer; Lubomirsky, Matvey [Solar Turbines, San Diego, CA (United States)

    2009-12-19

    Gas pipeline projects traditionally have been designed based on load factor and steady state flow. This approach exposes project sponsors to project sustainability risks due to potential losses of revenues and transportation contract penalties related to pipeline capacity shortage as consequence of compressor unit's unavailability. Such unavailability should previously be quantified during the design phase. This paper presents a case study and a methodology that highlights the practical benefits of applying Monte Carlo simulation for the compression system availability analysis in conjunction with quantitative risk analysis and economic feasibility study. Project economics main variables and their impacts on the project NPV (Net Present Value) are evaluated with their respective statistics distribution to quantify risk and support decision makers to adopt mitigating measures to guarantee competitiveness while protecting project sponsors from otherwise unpredictable risks. This practical approach is compared to load factor approach and the results are presented and evaluated. (author)

  4. Application of risk-based methodologies to prioritize safety resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahn, F.J.; Sursock, J.P.; Hosler, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) started a program entitled risk-based prioritization in 1992. The purpose of this program is to provide generic technical support to the nuclear power industry relative to its recent initiatives in the area of operations and maintenance (O ampersand M) cost control using state-of-the-art risk methods. The approach uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), or similar techniques, to allocate resources commensurate with the risk posed by nuclear plant operations. Specifically, those items or events that have high risk significance would receive the most attention, while those with little risk content would command fewer resources. As quantified in a companion paper,close-quote the potential O ampersand M cost reduction inherent in this approach is very large. Furthermore, risk-based methods should also lead to safety improvements. This paper outlines the way that the EPRI technical work complements the technical, policy, and regulatory initiatives taken by others in the industry and provides an example of the approach as used to prioritize motor-operated valve (MOV) testing in response to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Generic Letter 89-10

  5. Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

  6. Methodology for Radiological Risk Assessment of Deep Borehole Disposal Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardin, Ernest; Su, Jiann-Cherng; Peretz, Fred(ORNL)

    2017-03-01

    The primary purpose of the preclosure radiological safety assessment (that this document supports) is to identify risk factors for disposal operations, to aid in design for the deep borehole field test (DBFT) engineering demonstration.

  7. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  8. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina Balu

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  9. VAR Methodology Used for Exchange Risk Measurement and Prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Stancu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article we discuss one of the modern risk measuring techniques Value-at-Risk (VaR. Currently central banks in major money centers, under the auspices of the BIS Basle Committee, adopt the VaR system to evaluate the market risk of their supervised banks. Banks regulators ask all commercial banks to report VaRs with their internal models. Value at risk (VaR is a powerful tool for assessing market risk, but it also imposes a challenge. Its power is its generality. Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, duration and convexity, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories or certain sources of market risk, VaR is general. It is based on the probability distribution for a portfolio’s market value. Value at Risk (VAR calculates the maximum loss expected (or worst case scenario on an investment, over a given time period and given a specified degree of confidence. There are three methods by which VaR can be calculated: the historical simulation, the variance-covariance method and the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance-covariance method is easiest because you need to estimate only two factors: average return and standard deviation. However, it assumes returns are well-behaved according to the symmetrical normal curve and that historical patterns will repeat into the future. The historical simulation improves on the accuracy of the VAR calculation, but requires more computational data; it also assumes that “past is prologue”. The Monte Carlo simulation is complex, but has the advantage of allowing users to tailor ideas about future patterns that depart from historical patterns.

  10. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  11. Development of risk assessment methodology applicable to radioactive waste isolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, J.E.; McGrath, P.E.; Cullingford, M.C.

    1978-01-01

    The risk from radioactive waste disposal in a deep geologic formation has not yet been completely assessed. A complete assessment should include credible estimates of the likelihood that radioactive materials would escape the repository and enter the human environment, and the magnitude of the resultant consequences in terms of human health effects. In addition, such an assessment should identify the dominant contributors to risk and, to the extent possible, quantify the uncertainties in risk estimates. A complete risk assessment may not be possible because of our limited knowledge of various aspects of geology and hydrogeology important to the long-term safety of a radioactive waste repository. The results of past analyses are not entirely consistent, perhaps as a direct result of the limited knowledge of the phenomena involved. It may, therefore, seem premature to attempt a rigorous risk analysis of radioactive waste disposal in deep, geologic media at the present time. However, the value of such analyses lies more in the insight and information they provide than in their prediction of absolute levels of risk

  12. Methodological issues in cardiovascular epidemiology: the risk of determining absolute risk through statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demosthenes B Panagiotakos

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Vassilis StavrinosOffice of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Department of Dietetics, Nutrition, Harokopio University, Athens, GreeceAbstract: During the past years there has been increasing interest in the development of cardiovascular disease functions that predict future events at individual level. However, this effort has not been so far very successful, since several investigators have reported large differences in the estimation of the absolute risk among different populations. For example, it seems that predictive models that have been derived from US or north European populations  overestimate the incidence of cardiovascular events in south European and Japanese populations. A potential explanation could be attributed to several factors such as geographical, cultural, social, behavioral, as well as genetic variations between the investigated populations in addition to various methodological, statistical, issues relating to the estimation of these predictive models. Based on current literature it can be concluded that, while risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is a useful tool and might be valuable in controlling the burden of the disease in a population, further work is required to improve the accuracy of the present predictive models.Keywords: cardiovascular disease, risk, models

  13. Epithelial cell proliferative activity of Barrett's esophagus : methodology and correlation with traditional cancer risk markers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peters, FTM; Ganesh, S; Kuipers, EJ; De Jager-Krikken, A; Karrenbeld, A; Harms, Geert; Sluiter, WJ; Koudstaal, J; Klinkenberg-Knol, EC; Lamers, CBHW; Kleibeuker, JH

    Barrett's esophagus (BE) is a premalignant condition, due to chronic gastroesophageal reflux. Effective antireflux therapy may diminish cancer risk. To evaluate this option an intermediate marker is needed. We developed a methodology for measurement of epithelial cell proliferative activity of

  14. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  15. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  16. Methodology for identifying patients at high risk for osteoporotic fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westfall, G; Littlefield, R; Heaton, A; Martin, S

    2001-09-01

    Osteoporotic fractures are associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. The purpose of this paper is to present and validate a mathematical model that managed care organizations can apply to administrative claims data to help locate members at risk for osteoporotic fracture and estimate future fracture rates. Using known risk factors from previous clinical studies, 92,000 members of a large Midwest health plan were placed in 1 of 4 risk categories based on historical claims markers: demographic/lifestyle (age, sex, smoking, alcoholism); steroid use; medical history (previous osteoporotic fracture, ordinary bone fracture, osteoporosis diagnosis, bone mineral density test); or steroid use with medical history. Logistic regression was used to assign a probability of fracture for the 4 groups over the next 2 years. These predictions were compared with actual fracture rates, and refined models were produced. The models were then validated by applying them to current data and comparing the predicted fracture rate for each group to known results. The model predicted that 1.26% of the study members would experience osteoporotic fracture over the next 2 years; the actual result was 1.27%. Within the 4 risk groups, the predicted fracture rates were lower than the actual rates for the demographic risk group (0.87% predicted vs 0.97% actual) and higher than the actual rates for the steroid use (1.78% predicted vs 1.58% actual), medical history (5.90% predicted vs 4.94% actual), and the steroid use with medical history groups (7.80% predicted vs 6.42% actual). The application of this risk model to an administrative claims database successfully identified plan members at risk for osteoporotic fracture.

  17. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  18. Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

    OpenAIRE

    O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

    2014-01-01

    The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

  19. Value at risk methodologies: Developments, implementation and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Simin

    2006-01-01

    Value at Risk (VaR) is a useful concept in risk disclosure, especially for financial institutions. In this paper, the origin and development as well as the regulatory requirement of VaR are discussed. Furthermore, a hypothetical foreign currency forward contract is used as an example to illustrate the implementation of VaR. Back testing is conducted to test the soundness of each VaR model. Analysis in this paper shows that historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation approaches have more ...

  20. Analysis of buried pipelines at Kozloduy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asfura, A.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of the buried pipelines at Kozloduy NPP. It involves the description of the studied pipelines, their properties, a detailed description of the methodology applied, and the evaluation of the soil strain field as well as the graphical representation of the results obtained

  1. Location class change impact on onshore gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardoso, Cassia de Oliveira; Oliveira, Luiz Fernando Seixas de [DNV Energy Solutions, Oslo (Norway); Leal, Cesar Antonio [DNV Energy Solutions, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Faertes, Denise [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gas and Energy

    2009-07-01

    During a pipeline life cycle, some significant changes in the population may happen along its route. Such changes are indirectly evaluated by the increase in the amount of buildings constructed along the route, which determines the so called Location Class. Such changes, after licensing, provoke differences between what is required by the standards and what is actually done. This work has two goals. One is to study the requirements of international standards and legislations as well as some solutions used in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Netherlands. This goal intends to provide some technical bases for a comparative analysis on how the location class changes, during the life cycle of a pipeline, are treated in each country. Another goal is to present a risk-based methodology for the guideline development which can be used in decision-making concerning what to do in case of any location class change. Particularly, it has given special attention to the requirements which are imposed for the pipeline operational license continuation. This work is of supreme importance for the Brazilian pipeline segment, since the existing Brazilian design standard, ABNT NBR12712 for transmission and distribution pipeline design, does not deal with that issue. Moreover, a summary of the main solutions found in those countries together with a guideline, customized for the Brazilian reality, is presented. (author)

  2. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  3. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  4. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

    2007-11-01

    This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably

  5. Application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology to fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S.J.

    1985-07-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools are applied to general fusion issues in a systematic way, generally qualitatively. The potential value of PRA to general fusion safety and economic issues is discussed. Several important design insights result: possible fault interactions must be minimized (decouple fault conditions), inherently safe designs must include provision for passively handling loss of site power and loss of coolant conditions, the reliability of the vacuum boundary appears vital to maximizing facility availabilty and minimizing safety risk, and economic analyses appear to be incomplete without consideration of potential availability loss from forced outrages. A modification to PRA formalism is introduced, called the fault interaction matrix. The fault interaction matrix contains information concerning what initial fault condition could lead to other fault conditions and with what frequency. Thus, the fault interaction matrix represents a way to present and measure the degree to which a designer has decoupled possible fault conditions in his design

  6. Methodology evaluation of innovative projects under risk and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with problems connected with the assessment of innovative projects in the context of risk and uncertainty, topical issues of evaluation of innovative projects at the present stage of development of the Russian economy. By the example of the solution of the "crossing the river" is considering the possibility of using hierarchical models to address it. In what follows, and compares the priorities of different groups of factors are given by calculating the overall costs and benefits. The paper provides a rationale for combined use of four aspects: the beneficial aspects of the decision (the benefits and opportunities and negative (costs and risks that may lead to the decision in question.

  7. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Marques-Perez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  8. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-09-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  9. Discounting in agro-industrial complex. A methodological proposal for risk premium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques-Perez, I.; Guaita-Pradas, I.; Pérez-Salas, J.L.

    2017-01-01

    The estimation of the discount rate is decisive for a reliable economic valuation. The discount rate has to be adjusted for the risks related to the company, the sector which the company has its market, and the risks related to the investment project. We present a proposal to incorporate the risk premium to the discount rate. The novelty of the methodology is that difference risk groups according to activity as a factor to adjust the cost of capital to companies. The study applies the methodology to the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) in Spain. The AIC is formed by industries that add value to farming production. This sector’s economic success demands financial management techniques that assess risk. The conventional method responds neither to the heterogeneity of the economic activities that make up the AIC, nor to differentiating risk by groups. The proposed methodology distinguishes activity groups in accordance with the NACE (National Code of Economic Activities) and uses net profitability variability to distinguish the risk in each group. Our results demonstrate the various levels of risk per group. The results show that among all the groups that form the AIC there are wide differences between levels of risk; thus, the risk neutral groups present risk levels on the order of 150 times lower than the groups extreme risk levels.

  10. Some concepts, terminology, and methodology for radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.; Barlow, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    The controversy concerning cancer risk estimates for human populations exposed to low doses of ionizing radiations is discussed. The authors note that while little can be done to obtain more and better data on human populations, the analysis of available data can be sharpened through the consistent use of appropriate statistical techniques. Some probabilistic concepts that will help to define ''dose-response curve'' are given

  11. Soil erosion risk assessment along the main oil pipeline route using high resolution satellite imagery and geoinformation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djamalov, A.T.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the prediction possibilities of soil erosion processes along the main oil pipeline route were investigated that allows warning possible emergency consequences of these processes. Results of this research are the USLE model raster map for the test area and the table of estimation of soil loss intensity on the experimental area

  12. Review of the effects of in-stream pipeline crossing construction on aquatic ecosystems and examination of Canadian methodologies for impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lévesque, Lucie M; Dubé, Monique G

    2007-09-01

    Pipeline crossing construction alters river and stream channels, hence may have detrimental effects on aquatic ecosystems. This review examines the effects of crossing construction on fish and fish habitat in rivers and streams, and recommends an approach to monitoring and assessment of impacts associated with these activities. Pipeline crossing construction is shown to not only compromise the integrity of the physical and chemical nature of fish habitat, but also to affect biological habitat (e.g., benthic invertebrates and invertebrate drift), and fish behavior and physiology. Indicators of effect include: water quality (total suspended solids TSS), physical habitat (substrate particle size, channel morphology), benthic invertebrate community structure and drift (abundance, species composition, diversity, standing crop), and fish behavior and physiology (hierarchy, feeding, respiration rate, loss of equilibrium, blood hematocrit and leukocrit levels, heart rate and stroke volume). The Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) approach, which is often applied in Environmental Effects Monitoring (EEM), is recommended as a basis for impact assessment, as is consideration of site-specific sensitivities, assessment of significance, and cumulative effects.

  13. Definition of a shortcut methodology for assessing flood-related Na-Tech risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Marzo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of flood-related Na-Tech risk was developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive quantitative risk analysis (QRA. Through the definition of some suitable key hazard indicators (KHIs, the proposed methodology allows the identification of the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation; the analytical hierarchy process (AHP was used as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such qualitative KHIs. The developed methodology was validated through two case studies by comparing the predicted risk levels with the results of much more detailed QRAs previously presented in literature and then applied to the real flood happened at Spolana a.s., Neratovice, Czech Republic in August 2002.

  14. Hanford Mission Plan risk-based prioritization methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesser, W.A.; Madden, M.S.; Pyron, N.M.; Butcher, J.L.

    1994-08-01

    Sites across the US Department (DOE) complex recognize the critical need for a systematic method for prioritizing among their work scope activities. Here at the Hanford Site, Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) conducted preliminary research into techniques to meet this need and assist managers in making financial resource allocation decisions. This research is a subtask of the risk management task of the Hanford Mission Plan as described in the WHC Integrated Planning Work Breakdown Structure 1.8.2 Fiscal Year 1994 Work Plan. The research team investigated prioritization techniques used at other DOE sites and compared them with the Priority Planning Grid (PPG), a tool used at Hanford. The authors concluded that the PPG could be used for prioritization of resource allocation, but it needed to be revised to better reflect the Site's priorities and objectives. The revised PPG was tested with three Hanford programs, the PPG was modified, and updated procedures were prepared

  15. Bowtie Risk Management methodology and Modern Nuclear Safety Reports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilizastigui Pérez, F.

    2016-01-01

    The Safety Report (SR) plays a crucial role within the nuclear licensing regime as the principal means for demonstrating the adequacy of safety analysis for a nuclear facility to ensure that it can be constructed, operated, maintained, shut down, and decommissioned safely and in compliance with applicable laws and regulations. It serves as the basis for granting authorizations for the commencement of the main stages of the facility’s life cycle as well as decision-making processes related to safety. Historically, the majority of nuclear safety reports have operated under rather prescriptive regimes, with emphasis placed on demonstrations of the robustness of the facility’s design (design safety) against prescriptive technical requirements set by the regulatory body, and less attention paid to demonstrating the adequacy and effectiveness of Operator’s management system for managing risks to daily operation.

  16. A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

    2006-01-01

    A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

  17. Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglekar, Prafulla; Zapata, Edgar

    2001-01-01

    As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A

  18. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

  19. Corporate social responsibility along pipelines: communities and corporations working together

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carvalho, Edison D.R.; Lopes, Luciano E.; Danciguer, Lucilene; Macarini, Samuel; Souza, Maira de [Grupo de Aplicacao Interdisciplinar a Aprendizagem (GAIA), Campinas, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    In this paper we present GAIA's findings in three corporate social responsibility projects along pipelines owned by three Brazilian companies in gas, oil and mining sectors. The projects had as the main goal to improve the relationship with communities in the companies' direct influence areas. Clearly, the relationship with communities along pipelines is essential to prevent and reduce industrial hazards. The damage in pipelines due to agriculture, buildings, intentional perforations and traffic of heavy vehicles may cause fatal accidents, environmental and material losses. Such accidents have negative consequences with regard to economy, image and relationship with communities and environmental agencies. From communities' perspective, pipelines deteriorate their life quality due to risk of industrial hazards nearby their houses. The lack of proper information about the pipelines remarkably increases insecurity feelings and discourses against the companies among community leaders. The methodology developed by GAIA comprises companies' and communities' interests and encompasses nine stages. 1. Socio-environmental appraisal or inventory, mapping main risks, communities' needs and their leaders. 2. Communication plan, defining strategies, languages and communication vehicles for each stakeholder group. 3. Inter-institutional meetings to include other institutions in the program. 4. Launching seminar in partnership with local authorities, divulging companies' actions in the cities with pipelines. 5. Multiplier agents formation, enabling teachers, local leaders and government representatives to disseminate correct information about the pipelines such as their functioning, hazard prevention, maintenance actions, and restrictions of activities over the pipelines. 6. Formation on project management, enabling teachers, local leaders and government representatives to elaborate, fund raise and manage socio environmental projects aimed at

  20. Current state of copper stabilizers and methodology towards calculating risk

    CERN Document Server

    Koratzinos, M

    2011-01-01

    The talk will start by reviewing the landscape: a brief mention of the results of the warm copper stabilizer measurements and the results of the splice measurements at cold will be shown. The preliminary results of the recent RRR measurements will then be presented. Then, together with the limits presented from talk no. 2, the probability of an incident will be presented for beam energies between 3.5 and 5TeV. The available methods at our disposal for addressing the limiting factors and operating at a higher energy will then be reviewed: a complete circuit qualification method coined the Thermal Amplifier can define the maximum safe energy of the LHC in case of a quench next to a defective joint. Ways of avoiding magnet quenches, another critical element of the analysis, for instance by optimizing BLM settings will then be shown. Finally, a proposal of a strategy for running at the highest possible energy compatible with a pre-defined level of risk will be presented. As a case study, the method will also be a...

  1. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.; Kido, C.; Phillips, J.H.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues

  2. Current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. 1. Features and issues of probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamashita, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) could play an important role in assuring safety of NPPs. However PRA had not always effectively used, which was indicated in Japanese government's report on Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. At the Risk Technical Committee (RTC) of Standards Committee of Atomic Energy Society of Japan, preparation of standards (implementing criteria) focusing on PRA methodology and investigation on basic philosophy for use of PRA had been in progress. Based on activities of RTC, a serial in three articles including this described current status and future expectation concerning probabilistic risk assessment of NPPs. This article introduced features and issues of PRA methodology related to the use of PRA. Features of PRA methodology could be shown as (1) systematic and comprehensive understanding of risk, (2) support of grading approach, (3) identification of effective safety upgrade measures and (4) quantitative understanding of effects of uncertainty. Issues of PRA methodology were (1) extension of PRA application area, (2) upgrade of PRA methodology, (3) quality assurance of PRA, (4) treatment of uncertainty and (5) quantitative evaluation criteria. (T. Tanaka)

  3. Economic evaluation: wood stave pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rook, M.E.

    The spray of leakage from the wood stave water supply pipeline serving the New England Power Company's (NEPCO) Searsburg hydroelectric development had caused this facility to be dubbed ''The Searsburg Car Wash.'' In July, 1982, excessive leakage from this pipeline prompted NEPCO to perform a technical inspection which would inform the company's decision to replace, repair, or abandon the pipeline. The inspection indicated that a combination of interrelated factors has led to rapid deterioration. The feasibility study, which included a benefit -cost analysis of a times replacement with a continued repair program weighed annually by a risk factor representing the probability of pipeline failure during the replacement period, determined that direct replacement was most advantageous. 4 figures, 1 figures.

  4. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  5. Gas migration from closed coal mines to the surface. Risk assessment methodology and prevention means

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pokryszka, Z.; Tauziede, Ch.; Lagny, C.; Guise, Y.; Gobillot, R.; Planchenault, J.M.; Lagarde, R.

    2005-01-01

    French law as regards renunciation to mining concessions calls for the mining operator to first undertake analyses of the risks represented by their underground mining works. The problem of gas migration to the surface is especially significant in the context of coal mines. This is because mine gas can migrate to the earth's surface, then present significant risks: explosion, suffocation or gas poisoning risks. As part of the scheduled closure of all coal mining operations in France, INERIS has drawn up, at the request of national mining operator Charbonnages de France, a general methodology for assessing the risk linked to gas in the context of closed coal mines. This article presents the principles of this methodology. An application example based on a true case study is then described. This is completed by a presentation of the preventive and monitoring resources recommended and usually applied in order to manage the risk linked to gaseous emissions. (authors)

  6. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  7. Review of environmental exposure concentrations of chemical warfare agent residues and associated the fish community risk following the construction and completion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Hans; Fauser, Patrik; Rahbek, Malene; Larsen, Jørn Bo

    2014-08-30

    This paper compiles all the measured chemical warfare agent (CWA) concentrations found in relation to the Nord Stream pipeline work in Danish waters for the past 5 years. Sediment and biota sampling were performed along the pipeline route in four campaigns, prior to (in 2008 and 2010), during (in 2011) and after (in 2012) the construction work. No parent CWAs were detected in the sediments. Patchy residues of CWA degradation products of Adamsite, Clark I, phenyldichloroarsine, trichloroarsine and Lewisite II, were detected in a total of 29 of the 391 sediment samples collected and analyzed the past 5 years. The cumulative fish community risk quotient for the different locations, calculated as a sum of background and added risk, ranged between 0 and 0.017 suggesting a negligible acute CWA risk toward the fish community. The added risk from sediment disturbance in relation to construction of the pipelines represents less than 2% of the total risk in the areas with the highest calculated risk. The analyses of benthic infauna corroborate the finding of CWA related low risk across the years. There was no significant difference in CWA risk before (2008) and after the pipeline construction (2012). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The API methodology for risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis for the petroleum and petrochemical industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, J.T.

    1998-01-01

    Twenty-one petroleum and petrochemical companies are currently sponsoring a project within the American Petroleum Institute (API) to develop risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology for application in the refining and petrochemical industry. This paper describes that particular RBI methodology and provides a summary of the three levels of RBI analysis developed by the project. Also included is a review of the first pilot project to validate the methodology by applying RBI to several existing refining units. The failure for pressure equipment in a process unit can have several undesirable effects. For the purpose of RBI analysis, the API RBI program categorizes these effects into four basic risk outcomes: flammable events, toxic releases, major environmental damage, and business interruption losses. API RBI is a strategic process, both qualitative and quantitative, for understanding and reducing these risks associated with operating pressure equipment. This paper will show how API RBI assesses the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, as well as assessing the likelihood (probability) of failure. Risk-based inspection also prioritizes risk levels in a systematic manner so that the owner-user can then plan an inspection program that focuses more resources on the higher risk equipment; while possibly saving inspection resources that are not doing an effective job of reducing risk. At the same time, if consequence of failure is a significant driving force for high risk equipment items, plant management also has the option of applying consequence mitigation steps to minimize the impact of a hazardous release, should one occur. The target audience for this paper is engineers, inspectors, and managers who want to understand what API Risk-Based Inspection is all about, what are the benefits and limitations of RBI, and how inspection practices can be changed to reduce risks and/or save costs without impacting safety risk. (Author)

  9. Pipeline network and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira Nascimento, I.; Wagner, J.; Silveira, T.

    2012-01-01

    The Rio de Janeiro is one of 27 units of Brazil. It is located in the eastern portion of the Southeast and occupies an area of 43 696.054 km², being effectively the 3rd smallest state in Brazil. This state in recent years has suffered from erosion problems caused by the deployment of the network pipeline. The deployment pipeline is part of the activities related to the oil industry has caused a more intense conflict between the environment and economic activities, modifying the soil structure and distribution of surface and subsurface flows. This study aimed to analyze the erosion caused by the removal of soil for the deployment of pipeline transportation, with the consequences of the emergence of numerous gullies, landslides and silting of rivers. For the development of this study were performed bibliographic research, field work, mapping and digital preparation of the initial diagnosis of active processes and what the consequent environmental impacts. For these reasons, we conclude that the problems could be avoided or mitigated if there was a prior geological risk management. (author)

  10. Cyber-Informed Engineering: The Need for a New Risk Informed and Design Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Joseph Daniel [Idaho National Laboratory; Anderson, Robert Stephen [Idaho National Laboratory

    2015-06-01

    Current engineering and risk management methodologies do not contain the foundational assumptions required to address the intelligent adversary’s capabilities in malevolent cyber attacks. Current methodologies focus on equipment failures or human error as initiating events for a hazard, while cyber attacks use the functionality of a trusted system to perform operations outside of the intended design and without the operator’s knowledge. These threats can by-pass or manipulate traditionally engineered safety barriers and present false information, invalidating the fundamental basis of a safety analysis. Cyber threats must be fundamentally analyzed from a completely new perspective where neither equipment nor human operation can be fully trusted. A new risk analysis and design methodology needs to be developed to address this rapidly evolving threatscape.

  11. Application of the risk-informed methodology for APR1400 P-T limits curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, K.; Namgung, I. [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-07-01

    A reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in a nuclear power plant has operational limits of pressure and temperature to prevent a potential drastic propagation of cracks due to brittle fracture. We call it a pressure-temperature limits curve (P-T limits curve). Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, Section XI, provides deterministic procedures to develop the P-T limits curve for the reactor pressure vessel. Recently, an alternative risk-informed methodology has been added in the ASME Code. Risk-informed means that we can consider insights from a probabilistic risk assessment by using this methodology. This alternative methodology provides a simple procedure to develop risk-informed P-T limits for heat up, cool down, and hydrostatic test events. The risk-informed P-T limits curve is known to provide more operational flexibility, particularly for reactor pressure vessels with relatively high irradiation levels and radiation sensitive materials. In this paper, we developed both the deterministic and a risk-informed P-T limits curve for an APR1400 reactor using Appendix G of the ASME Code, Section XI and compare the results in terms of additional operational margin. (author)

  12. Data development technical support document for the aircraft crash risk analysis methodology (ACRAM) standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimura, C.Y.; Glaser, R.E.; Mensing, R.W.; Lin, T.; Haley, T.A.; Barto, A.B.; Stutzke, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Aircraft Crash Risk Analysis Methodology (ACRAM) Panel has been formed by the US Department of Energy Office of Defense Programs (DOE/DP) for the purpose of developing a standard methodology for determining the risk from aircraft crashes onto DOE ground facilities. In order to accomplish this goal, the ACRAM panel has been divided into four teams, the data development team, the model evaluation team, the structural analysis team, and the consequence team. Each team, consisting of at least one member of the ACRAM plus additional DOE and DOE contractor personnel, specializes in the development of the methodology assigned to that team. This report documents the work performed by the data development team and provides the technical basis for the data used by the ACRAM Standard for determining the aircraft crash frequency. This report should be used to provide the generic data needed to calculate the aircraft crash frequency into the facility under consideration as part of the process for determining the aircraft crash risk to ground facilities as given by the DOE Standard Aircraft Crash Risk Assessment Methodology (ACRAM). Some broad guidance is presented on how to obtain the needed site-specific and facility specific data but this data is not provided by this document

  13. Removable pipeline plug

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassalotti, M.; Anastasi, F.

    1984-01-01

    A removable plugging device for a pipeline, and particularly for pressure testing a steam pipeline in a boiling water reactor, wherein an inflatable annular sealing member seals off the pipeline and characterized by radially movable shoes for holding the plug in place, each shoe being pivotally mounted for self-adjusting engagement with even an out-of-round pipeline interior

  14. Pipeline integrity management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guyt, J.; Macara, C.

    1997-12-31

    This paper focuses on some of the issues necessary for pipeline operators to consider when addressing the challenge of managing the integrity of their systems. Topics are: Definition; business justification; creation and safeguarding of technical integrity; control and deviation from technical integrity; pipelines; pipeline failure assessment; pipeline integrity assessment; leak detection; emergency response. 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

    2018-01-01

    Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Geo-environmental mapping tool applied to pipeline design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, Karina de S.; Calle, Jose A.; Gil, Euzebio J. [Geomecanica S/A Tecnologia de Solo Rochas e Materiais, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Sare, Alexandre R. [Geomechanics International Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Soares, Ana Cecilia [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The Geo-Environmental Mapping is an improvement of the Geological-Geotechnical Mapping used for basic pipeline designs. The main purpose is to assembly the environmental, geotechnical and geological concepts in a methodological tool capable to predict constrains and reduce the pipeline impact to the environment. The Geo-Environmental mapping was built to stress the influence of soil/structure interaction, related to the physical effect that comes from the contact between structures and soil or rock. A Geological-Geotechnical-Environmental strip (chart) was presented to emphasize the pipeline operational constrains and its influence to the environment. The mapping was developed to clearly show the occurrence and properties of geological materials divided into geotechnical domain units (zones). The strips present construction natural properties, such as: excavability, stability of the excavation and soil re-use capability. Also, the environmental constrains were added to the geological-geotechnical mapping. The Geo-Environmental Mapping model helps the planning of the geotechnical and environmental inquiries to be carried out during executive design, the discussion on the types of equipment to be employed during construction and the analysis of the geological risks and environmental impacts to be faced during the built of the pipeline. (author)

  18. Underground pipeline corrosion

    CERN Document Server

    Orazem, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Underground pipelines transporting liquid petroleum products and natural gas are critical components of civil infrastructure, making corrosion prevention an essential part of asset-protection strategy. Underground Pipeline Corrosion provides a basic understanding of the problems associated with corrosion detection and mitigation, and of the state of the art in corrosion prevention. The topics covered in part one include: basic principles for corrosion in underground pipelines, AC-induced corrosion of underground pipelines, significance of corrosion in onshore oil and gas pipelines, n

  19. A new methodology for modelling of health risk from urban flooding exemplified by cholera

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark, Ole; Jørgensen, Claus; Hammond, Michael

    2016-01-01

    outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and health risk caused by direct human contact with the flood water and hence gives...... and mortality, especially during floods. At present, there are no software tools capable of combining hydrodynamic modelling and health risk analyses, and the links between urban flooding and the health risk for the population due to direct contact with the flood water are poorly understood. The present paper...... an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population by use of intelligent urban flood risk management. The model linking urban flooding and health risk is applied to Dhaka City in Bangladesh, where waterborne diseases including cholera are endemic. The application to Dhaka City is supported...

  20. Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

  1. Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

    2011-01-01

    In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

  2. Emergency preparedness of OSBRA Pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magalhaes, Milton P.; Torres, Carlos A.R.; Almeida, Francisco J.C. [TRANSPETRO, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents the experience of PETROBRAS Transporte S. A. - TRANSPETRO in the preparation for emergencies in the OSBRA pipeline, showing specific aspects and solutions developed. The company has a standardized approach for the emergency management, based on risk analysis studies, risk management plan and contingency plans. To cover almost 1,000 km of pipeline, the Company avails of Emergency Response Centers and Environmental Defense Center, located at strategic points. In order to achieve preparation, fire fighting training and oil leakage elimination training are provided. Additionally, simulation exercises are performed, following a schedule worked out according to specific criteria and guidelines. As a conclusion, a picture is presented of the evolution of the preparation for emergencies in the OSBRA System which bears the enormous responsibility of transporting flammable products for almost 1,000 km of pipeline, crossing 40 municipalities, 3 states and the Federal District. (author)

  3. Application of FIVE methodology in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of fire events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Garcia, F.J.; Suarez Alonso, J.; Fiolamengual, M.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reflects the experience acquired during the process of evaluation and updating of the fire analysis within the Cofrentes NPP PRA. It determines which points are the least precise, either because of their greater uncertainty or because of their excessive conservatism, as well as the subtasks which have involved a larger work load and could be simplified. These aspects are compared with the steps followed in methodology FIVE (Fire Vulnerability Evaluation Methodology) to assess whether application of this methodology would optimize the task, by making it more systematic and realistic and reducing uncertainties. On the one hand, the FIVE methodology does not have the scope sufficient to carry out a quantitative risk evaluation, but it can easily be complemented -without detriment to its systematic nature- by quantifying core damage in significant areas. On the other hand, certain issues such as definition of the fire growth software program which has to be used, are still not fully closed. Nevertheless, the conclusions derived from this assessment are satisfactory, since it is considered that this methodology would serve to unify the criteria and data of the analysis of fire-induced risks, providing a progressive screening method which would considerably simplify the task. (author)

  4. Decision-theoretic methodology for reliability and risk allocation in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, N.Z.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; El-Bassioni, A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology for allocating reliability and risk to various reactor systems, subsystems, components, operations, and structures in a consistent manner, based on a set of global safety criteria which are not rigid. The problem is formulated as a multiattribute decision analysis paradigm; the multiobjective optimization, which is performed on a PRA model and reliability cost functions, serves as the guiding principle for reliability and risk allocation. The concept of noninferiority is used in the multiobjective optimization problem. Finding the noninferior solution set is the main theme of the current approach. The assessment of the decision maker's preferences could then be performed more easily on the noninferior solution set. Some results of the methodology applications to a nontrivial risk model are provided and several outstanding issues such as generic allocation and preference assessment are discussed

  5. Quantification of the detriment and comparison of health risks. Methodological problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammet, H.

    1982-01-01

    Some of the methodological problems involved in the quantitative estimate of the health detriment of different energy sources and in risk comparison are described. First, the question of determining the detriment is discussed from the point of view of the distortions introduced in the quantification when dealing with risks for which the amount of information available varies widely. The main criteria applied to classifying types of detriment are then recalled. Finally, the problems involved in comparisons are outlined: spatial and temporal variations in the types of detriment, operation under normal and accident conditions, and the risks to the public and workers. (author)

  6. Methodological issues in the study of risk perception and human behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathbun, P.F.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a broad perspective on the use of the methods and techniques of the behavioral and social sciences as they pertain to the work of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, particularly in issues of risk perception. Four major topics or themes are discussed: (1) a brief overview of the classic theories of risk perception; (2) current contractor work in the area of risk perception and cognitive psychology; (3) other uses of the social and behavioral sciences in the Agency; and (4) methodological considerations in using the techniques

  7. Pipeline modeling and assessment in unstable slopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caceres, Carlos Nieves [Oleoducto Central S.A., Bogota, Cundinamarca (Colombia); Ordonez, Mauricio Pereira [SOLSIN S.A.S, Bogota, Cundinamarca (Colombia)

    2010-07-01

    The OCENSA pipeline system is vulnerable to geotechnical problems such as faults, landslides or creeping slopes, which are well-known in the Andes Mountains and tropical countries like Colombia. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the pipe behaviour during the soil displacements of slow landslides. Three different cases of analysis are examined, according to site characteristics. The process starts with a simplified analytical model and develops into 3D finite element numerical simulations applied to the on-site geometry of soil and pipe. Case 1 should be used when the unstable site is subject to landslides impacting significant lengths of pipeline, pipeline is straight, and landslide is simple from the geotechnical perspective. Case 2 should be used when pipeline is straight and landslide is complex (creeping slopes and non-conventional stabilization solutions). Case 3 should be used if the pipeline presents vertical or horizontal bends.

  8. Methodology for national risk analysis and prioritization of toxic industrial chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taxell, Piia; Engström, Kerstin; Tuovila, Juha; Söderström, Martin; Kiljunen, Harri; Vanninen, Paula; Santonen, Tiina

    2013-01-01

    The identification of chemicals that pose the greatest threat to human health from incidental releases is a cornerstone in public health preparedness for chemical threats. The present study developed and applied a methodology for the risk analysis and prioritization of industrial chemicals to identify the most significant chemicals that pose a threat to public health in Finland. The prioritization criteria included acute and chronic health hazards, physicochemical and environmental hazards, national production and use quantities, the physicochemical properties of the substances, and the history of substance-related incidents. The presented methodology enabled a systematic review and prioritization of industrial chemicals for the purpose of national public health preparedness for chemical incidents.

  9. A methodology for analysing human errors of commission in accident scenarios for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. H.; Jung, W. D.; Park, J. K

    2003-01-01

    As the concern on the impact of the operator's inappropriate interventions, so-called Errors Of Commissions(EOCs), on the plant safety has been raised, the interest in the identification and analysis of EOC events from the risk assessment perspective becomes increasing accordingly. To this purpose, we propose a new methodology for identifying and analysing human errors of commission that might be caused from the failures in situation assessment and decision making during accident progressions given an initiating event. The proposed methodology was applied to the accident scenarios of YGN 3 and 4 NPPs, which resulted in about 10 EOC situations that need careful attention

  10. International developments on implementation of Wog risk-informed inservice inspection methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.; Canton, M.A.; Closky, N.B.; Haessler, R.L.; Kolonay, J.F.; Sharp, G.L.; Stevenson, P.R.

    2001-01-01

    The full text follows. The Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) risk-informed inservice inspection (ISI) methodology was granted approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1998 thereby providing an alternative to ASME Section XI Code requirements for the selection of examination locations in nuclear plant piping systems. This paper builds upon a technical paper presented at ICONE-8 that reported on the first wave of risk-informed ISI applications under development primarily focusing on those underway within the U.S. Since that time, many applications have continued within the U.S., however, much progress has been made in applying the WOG risk-informed ISI approach in several other countries. While a summary of results across the various applications will be provided, the paper will focus on the development and implementation of the WOG risk-informed ISI methodology across Europe and in Asia for both full scope and limited Class 1 scope applications. An update on future risk-informed applications, such as modifying requirements for augmented examinations for high energy line break exclusion regions and in risk-informing the safety classification of pressure boundary components in support of risk-informed regulation initiatives, will also be provided. (authors)

  11. U.S. Department of energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments

  12. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Risk Management; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Scofield, P.A. [Office of Environmental Compliance and Documentation (United States)

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  13. Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nesterenko Oksana O.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in

  14. Construction schedule delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Mufazzal Hossen

    2015-04-01

    The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  15. Risk analysis and management of pipeline systems - the TRANSPETRO's experience in Sao Paulo and Brazil's Mid-West; Analise e gerenciamento de riscos de sistemas de dutos - a experiencia da TRANSPETRO em Sao Paulo e no Centro Oeste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres, Carlos Alberto Rodrigues; Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    Risk Analysis is an important instrument on risk management and emergency control. TRANSPETRO has a long pipeline network to transport oil and by-products in Sao Paulo State and Brazil Midwest. The beginning of the elaboration of Risk Analysis in TRANSPETRO was in 1987 and extended continually until 2000. Since 2001, with the Excellence Program on Environmental and Operational Safety Management, a review of Risk Analysis has been done on all pipeline's system. This work presents the experience acquired, the main difficulties, the solutions adopted, the results about individual and social risks, the main risk management actions and the evolution of the studies during the last fifteen years pointing out the technical development of the TRANSPETRO, the environment agency and the consultant companies. (author)

  16. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2013-01-01

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

  17. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

  18. The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Remington J; Redilla, Kyle M; Mudumba, Tutilo; Muneza, Arthur B; Gray, Steven M; Abade, Leandro; Hayward, Matt W; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Montgomery, Robert A

    2017-07-01

    Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple

  19. Fire risk analysis for nuclear power plants: Methodological developments and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazarians, M.; Apostolakis, G.; Siv, N.O.

    1985-01-01

    A methodology to quantify the risk from fires in nuclear power plants is described. This methodology combines engineering judgment, statistical evidence, fire phenomenology, and plant system analysis. It can be divided into two major parts: (1) fire scenario identification and quantification, and (2) analysis of the impact on plant safety. This article primarily concentrates on the first part. Statistical analysis of fire occurrence data is used to establish the likelihood of ignition. The temporal behaviors of the two competing phenomena, fire propagation and fire detection and suppression, are studied and their characteristic times are compared. Severity measures are used to further specialize the frequency of the fire scenario. The methodology is applied to a switchgear room of a nuclear power plant

  20. Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

    2012-05-01

    A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

  1. Overtopping hazards to port activities: Application of a new methodology to risk management (POrt Risk MAnagement Tool)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alises, Ana; Molina, Rafael; Gómez, Rebeca; Pery, Pascual; Castillo, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    In the past 20 years, the need of ports to serve a fleet whose dimensions are continuously increasing due to economies of scale, has derived on a port infrastructures growth with a trend to look for greater drafts at deeper waters and therefore the protection structures built in the last years have been increasingly exposed to severer maritime climate action. Consequently, overtopping phenomenon has been identified as a potential risk factor able to cause structural damages and operative failure modes to vulnerable economic activities located at these port facilities. Port activities must be developed ensuring operative and safety conditions what imply reducing uncertainties of overtopping phenomena by using prediction methods which may allow overtopping risk management. This paper provides a risk assessment methodology which is integrated into an overtopping risk management framework to cope with safety problems in port exploitation. Overtopping risk value is measured by combining probability of occurrence of an undesirable event together with its consequences, estimated in terms of costs or delays and given in base of the vulnerability of the affected port system. The development of this methodology is described and finally applied to a real case study what seems to reinforce the validity of the proposed method to overtopping risk assessment. - Highlights: • Infrastructure risk assessment involves both probabilistic and economic techniques. • Risk equation is posed by the combination of probability, vulnerability and cost. • Port infrastructures' vulnerability level depends on climate agents' action. • Economic value of natural hazards consequences is linked with vulnerability level. • Project planning process should be done taking into account the project's risk distribution

  2. A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Escales, Paula; Canelles, Arnau; Sanchez-Vila, Xavier; Folch, Albert; Kurtzman, Daniel; Rossetto, Rudy; Fernández-Escalante, Enrique; Lobo-Ferreira, João-Paulo; Sapiano, Manuel; San-Sebastián, Jon; Schüth, Christoph

    2018-06-01

    Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of fault trees and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

  3. Risk analysis methodology for unreprocessed spent fuel disposal in bedded salt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepping, R.E.; Chu, M.S.Y.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1982-01-01

    In accordance with the decision to defer the reprocessing of commercially generated spent fuel, we are investigating the implications on risk of direct disposal of spent fuel assemblies. To the extent possible, we are using the methodology developed at Sandia for the NRC to evaluate risks from the disposal of wastes from reprocessing of spent fuel. This allows direct comparison of the risks calculated for the two waste forms. A number of differences between the two waste forms with implications on risk have been identified and investigation of their effects has begun. Among these are the presence of gases and additional plutonium and uranium isotopes, the potential for differing leach behavior, and the difference in the decay heat source which determines the overall thermomechanical response of the host media. We have analyzed a number of scenarios for a hypothetical geologic repository that have been identified as important contributors to risk from the disposal of both reprocessed and unreprocessed spent fuel. For each scenario, we employ the Groundwater Transport, Pathways to Man, and Dosimetry and Health Effects models of the High Level Waste Methodology. Risks are compared for the reprocessed and unreprocessed spent fuel wastes and the effects of uncertainty in the parameters of the various models are compared

  4. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... in paragraph (b) of this section as follows: (1) Risk Classification A if the location indicator is... in the program according to the following indicators of risk: (1) The location indicator is— (i) High... is— (i) High risk if the line is at least 18 inches in nominal diameter; (ii) Medium risk if the line...

  5. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis.

  7. Climate Change RisksMethodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  8. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D.L.; Auflick, J.L.; Haney, L.N.

    1992-04-01

    Inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been identified as important contributors to offsite risk for some nuclear power plants. A methodology has been developed for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware designs, human factors issues, and accident consequence factors relevant to the estimation of ISLOCA core damage frequency and risk. This report presents a detailed description of the application of this analysis methodology to a Westinghouse four-loop ice condenser plant. This document also includes appendices A through I which provide: System descriptions; ISLOCA event trees; human reliability analysis; thermal hydraulic analysis; core uncovery timing calculations; calculation of system rupture probability; ISLOCA consequences analysis; uncertainty analysis; and component failure analysis

  9. The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

    2012-04-01

    The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

  10. Lessons Learned From Implementation of Westinghouse Owners Group Risk-Informed Inservice Inspection Methodology for Piping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, Paul R.; Haessler, Richard L.; McNeill, Alex; Pyne, Mark A.; West, Raymond A.

    2006-01-01

    Risk-informed inservice inspection (ISI) programs have been in use for over seven years as an alternative to current regulatory requirements in the development and implementation of ISI programs for nuclear plant piping systems. Programs using the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) (now known as the Pressurized Water Reactor Owners Group - PWROG) risk-informed ISI methodology have been developed and implemented within the U.S. and several other countries. Additionally, many plants have conducted or are in the process of conducting updates to their risk-informed ISI programs. In the development and implementation of these risk-informed ISI programs and the associated updates to those programs, the following important lessons learned have been identified and are addressed. Concepts such as 'loss of inventory', which are typically not modeled in a plant's probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model for all systems. The importance of considering operator actions in the identification of consequences associated with a piping failure and the categorization of segments as high safety significant (HSS) or low safety significant (LSS). The impact that the above considerations have had on the large early release frequency (LERF) and categorization of segments as HSS or LSS. The importance of automation. Making the update process more efficient to reduce costs associated with maintaining the risk-informed ISI program. The insights gained are associated with many of the steps in the risk-informed ISI process including: development of the consequences associated with piping failures, categorization of segments, structural element selection and program updates. Many of these lessons learned have impacted the results of the risk-informed ISI programs and have impacted the updates to those programs. This paper summarizes the lessons learned and insights gained from the application of the WOG risk-informed ISI methodology in the U.S., Europe and Asia. (authors)

  11. Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetta Persechino

    2013-06-01

    Conclusion: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  12. Legal basis for risk analysis methodology while ensuring food safety in the Eurasian Economic union and the Republic of Belarus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Fedorenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Health risk analysis methodology is an internationally recognized tool for ensuring food safety. Three main elements of risk analysis are risk assessment, risk management and risk communication to inform the interested parties on the risk, are legislated and implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Republic of Belarus. There is a corresponding organizational and functional framework for the application of risk analysis methodology as in the justification of production safety indicators and the implementation of public health surveillance. Common methodological approaches and criteria for evaluating public health risk are determined, which are used in the development and application of food safety requirements. Risk assessment can be used in justifying the indicators of safety (contaminants, food additives, and evaluating the effectiveness of programs on enrichment of food with micronutrients.

  13. The use of mental models in chemical risk protection: developing a generic workplace methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Patrick; Niewöhmer, Jörg; Pidgeon, Nick; Gerrard, Simon; Fischhoff, Baruch; Riley, Donna

    2003-04-01

    We adopted a comparative approach to evaluate and extend a generic methodology to analyze the different sets of beliefs held about chemical hazards in the workplace. Our study mapped existing knowledge structures about the risks associated with the use of perchloroethylene and rosin-based solder flux in differing workplaces. "Influence diagrams" were used to represent beliefs held by chemical experts; "user models" were developed from data elicited from open-ended interviews with the workplace users of the chemicals. The juxtaposition of expert and user understandings of chemical risks enabled us to identify knowledge gaps and misunderstandings and to reinforce appropriate sets of safety beliefs and behavior relevant to chemical risk communications. By designing safety information to be more relevant to the workplace context of users, we believe that employers and employees may gain improved knowledge about chemical hazards in the workplace, such that better chemical risk management, self-protection, and informed decision making develop over time.

  14. Generating pipeline networks for corrosion assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferguson, J. [Cimarron Engineering Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Production characteristics and gas-fluid compositions of fluids must be known in order to assess pipelines for internal corrosion risk. In this study, a gathering system pipeline network was built in order to determine corrosion risk for gathering system pipelines. Connections were established between feeder and collector lines in order measure upstream production and the weighted average of the upstream composition of each pipeline in the system. A Norsok M-506 carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) corrosion rate model was used to calculate corrosion rates. A spreadsheet was then used to tabulate the obtained data. The analysis used straight lines drawn between the 'from' and 'to' legal sub-division (LSD) endpoints in order to represent pipelines on an Alberta township system (ATS) and identify connections between pipelines. Well connections were established based on matching surface hole location and 'from' LSDs. Well production, composition, pressure, and temperature data were sourced and recorded as well attributes. XSL hierarchical computations were used to determine the production and composition properties of the commingled inflows. It was concluded that the corrosion assessment process can identify locations within the pipeline network where potential deadlegs branched off from flowing pipelines. 4 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  15. A Novel Method to Enhance Pipeline Trajectory Determination Using Pipeline Junctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahli, Hussein; El-Sheimy, Naser

    2016-04-21

    Pipeline inspection gauges (pigs) have been used for many years to perform various maintenance operations in oil and gas pipelines. Different pipeline parameters can be inspected during the pig journey. Although pigs use many sensors to detect the required pipeline parameters, matching these data with the corresponding pipeline location is considered a very important parameter. High-end, tactical-grade inertial measurement units (IMUs) are used in pigging applications to locate the detected problems of pipeline using other sensors, and to reconstruct the trajectories of the pig. These IMUs are accurate; however, their high cost and large sizes limit their use in small diameter pipelines (8″ or less). This paper describes a new methodology for the use of MEMS-based IMUs using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the pipeline junctions to increase the position parameters' accuracy and to reduce the total RMS errors even during the unavailability of above ground markers (AGMs). The results of this new proposed method using a micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS)-based IMU revealed that the position RMS errors were reduced by approximately 85% compared to the standard EKF solution. Therefore, this approach will enable the mapping of small diameter pipelines, which was not possible before.

  16. Development of a risk monitoring system for nuclear power plants based on GO-FLOW methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jun; Yang, Ming; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Yang, Fangqing

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A method for developing Living PSA is proposed. • Living PSA is easy to update with online modification to system model file. • A risk monitoring system is designed and developed using the GO-FLOW. • The risk monitoring system is useful for plant daily operation risk management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk monitoring system developed based on GO-FLOW methodology which is a success-oriented system reliability modeling technique for phased mission as well as time-dependent problems analysis. The risk monitoring system is designed to receive information on plant configuration changes either from equipment failures, operator interventions, or maintenance activities, then update the Living PSA model with online modification to the system GO-FLOW model file which contains all the functional modes of equipment represented by a proposed generalized GO-FLOW modeling structure, and display risk values graphically. The risk monitoring system can be used to assist safety engineers and plant operators in their maintenance management and daily operation risk management at NPPs

  17. Development of a risk monitoring system for nuclear power plants based on GO-FLOW methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, No. 145 Nantong Street, Nangang District, Harbin 150001 (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, No. 145 Nantong Street, Nangang District, Harbin 150001 (China); Yoshikawa, Hidekazu, E-mail: yosikawa@kib.biglobe.ne.jp [Symbio Community Forum, Kyoto (Japan); Yang, Fangqing, E-mail: yfq613@163.com [China Nuclear Power Technology Research Institute, 518000 (China)

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • A method for developing Living PSA is proposed. • Living PSA is easy to update with online modification to system model file. • A risk monitoring system is designed and developed using the GO-FLOW. • The risk monitoring system is useful for plant daily operation risk management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk monitoring system developed based on GO-FLOW methodology which is a success-oriented system reliability modeling technique for phased mission as well as time-dependent problems analysis. The risk monitoring system is designed to receive information on plant configuration changes either from equipment failures, operator interventions, or maintenance activities, then update the Living PSA model with online modification to the system GO-FLOW model file which contains all the functional modes of equipment represented by a proposed generalized GO-FLOW modeling structure, and display risk values graphically. The risk monitoring system can be used to assist safety engineers and plant operators in their maintenance management and daily operation risk management at NPPs.

  18. A Simplified Methodology For Risk Assessment of The Oolitic Limestone Aquifer, West of Alexandria Coastal Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadek, M.A.; Hussein, R.A.

    2013-01-01

    Groundwater risk analysis helps to assess the effects of contaminants reach to specific position in groundwater system after introduction at some location above the uppermost aquifer. This provides a basis for initiating protective and mitigation measures for important groundwater resources. An attempt has been made in the present study to assess the risk of diffuse groundwater pollution at the north western coast of Alexandria against landfill waste disposal as well as agricultural pollutants leachates which are the main land use in the studied area. A simplified weighing/ rating approach have been functioned for this purpose, Slovene methodology, which is relevant for fissured carbonate aquifers that characterize the studied area. This method is based on an origin-pathway-target model, which applies for both resource and source protection. Conservative values for the intrinsic geological, hydrogeological, geo morphological and climatological parameters have been reviewed and determined for assessment of the source and resource vulnerability, hazards and risk (lithology, texture and structure of soil zone, lithology and thickness of the unsaturated zone and aquifer conditions, morphological features, slope and vegetation cover, average annual stormy days, travel time and karst network , the fertilizers and pesticide used for agriculture, the volume of unlined waste disposal site). The methodology applied in the present study emphasizes how the physical properties of the hydrological system can be integrated in an index that reflects the level of risk of a diffuse pollution to groundwater. This aligns with the prospective of site safety evaluation around risky installations such as a nuclear power plants or waste disposal facilities where assurance should be done that the risk to the public and environment is acceptably low. According to the functioned methodology, the fissured limestone under study is low vulnerable and highly protectable against surface diffuse

  19. Assessing Freshwater Ecosystem Service Risk over Ecological, Socioeconomic, and Cultural Gradients: Problem Space Characterization and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, T. C.; Villamizar, S. R.; Conde, D.; Rusak, J.; Reid, B.; Astorga, A.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; London, S.; Velez, M.; Hoyos, N.; Escobar, J.

    2014-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide are under increasing anthropogenic pressure at local (e.g., irrigation diversions, wastewater discharge) and global scales (e.g., climate change, global trading). The impact depends on an ecosystem's sensitivity, which is determined by its geophysical and ecological settings, and the population and activities in its surrounding watershed. Given the importance of ecosystem services, it is critical that we improve our ability to identify and understand changes in aquatic ecosystems, and translate them to risk of service loss. Furthermore, to inspire changes in human behavior, it is equally critical that we learn to communicate risk, and pose risk mitigation strategies, in a manner acceptable to a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Quantifying the nature and timing of the risk is difficult because (1) we often fail to understand the connection between anthropogenic pressures and the timing and extent of ecosystem changes; and (2) the concept of risk is inherently coupled to human perception, which generally differs with cultural and socio-economic conditions. In this study, we endeavor to assess aquatic ecosystem risks across an international array of six study sites. The challenge is to construct a methodology capable of capturing the marked biogeographical, socioeconomic, and cultural differences among the sites, which include: (1) Muskoka River watershed in humid continental Ontario, Canada; (2) Lower San Joaquin River, an impounded snow-fed river in semi-arid Central California; (3) Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta, a tropical coastal lagoon in Colombia; (4) Senguer River basin in the semi-arid part of Argentina; (5) Laguna de Rocha watershed in humid subtropical Uruguay; and (6) Palomas Lake complex in oceanic Chilean Patagonia. Results will include a characterization of the experimental gradient over the six sites, an overview of the risk assessment methodology, and preliminary findings for several of the sites.

  20. Methodology to estimate the cost of the severe accidents risk / maximum benefit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza, G.; Flores, R. M.; Vega, E.

    2016-09-01

    For programs and activities to manage aging effects, any changes to plant operations, inspections, maintenance activities, systems and administrative control procedures during the renewal period should be characterized, designed to manage the effects of aging as required by 10 Cfr Part 54 that could impact the environment. Environmental impacts significantly different from those described in the final environmental statement for the current operating license should be described in detail. When complying with the requirements of a license renewal application, the Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis is contained in a supplement to the environmental report of the plant that meets the requirements of 10 Cfr Part 51. In this paper, the methodology for estimating the cost of severe accidents risk is established and discussed, which is then used to identify and select the alternatives for severe accident mitigation, which are analyzed to estimate the maximum benefit that an alternative could achieve if this eliminate all risk. Using the regulatory analysis techniques of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) estimates the cost of severe accidents risk. The ultimate goal of implementing the methodology is to identify candidates for SAMA that have the potential to reduce the severe accidents risk and determine if the implementation of each candidate is cost-effective. (Author)

  1. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document

  2. Increase of ecological safety of the pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dr Movsumov, Sh.N.; Prof Aliyev, F.G.

    2005-01-01

    Full text : For increase of ecological safety of the pipeline, necessary decrease of damage (risk) rendered by the pipeline on surrounding natural environment which depends: on the frequency of damage of the pipeline; on the volume poured oil; on the factor of sensitivity of an environment where flood of oil was. Frequency of damage of the pipeline depends on physico-chemical properties of a material of the pipeline, from its technical characteristics (thickness of a wall, length of a pipe, working pressure), on the seismic area of the district where the pipeline passed and also on the way of lining of the pipeline (underground or overground). The volume poured oil depends on diameter of the received damage, from stability of the pipeline mechanical and other external actions, from an ambient temperature, from capacity of the pipeline, from distance between the latches established in the pipeline, and also from time, necessary for their full closing. The factor of sensitivity of environment depends on geological structure and landscapes of district (mountain, the river, settlements) where passed the pipeline. At designing the pipeline, in report is shown questions of increase of ecological safety of the pipeline are considered at his construction and exploitation. For improvement of ecological safety of the pipeline is necessary to hold the following actions: Ecological education of the public, living near along a line of the oil pipeline; carrying out ecological monitoring; working of the public plan of response to oil spills; For ecological education of the public is necessary: carrying out informing of the public for all (technical, ecological, social and economic and legal) questions connected to an oil pipeline, and also on methods of protection of the rights at participation in acceptance of ecological significant decisions; Creation of public groups for realization of activity on observance of the legislation and to prevention of risks; Exposure of hot

  3. Managing changes of location classes of gas pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Sergio B; Sousa, Antonio Geraldo de [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-12-19

    Most of the gas pipeline design codes utilize a class location system, where the design safety factor and the hydrostatic test factor are determined according to the population density in the vicinities of the pipeline route. Consequently, if an operator is requested or desires to maintain an existing gas pipeline in compliance with its design code, it will reduce the operational pressure or replace pipe sections to increase the wall thickness whenever a change in location class takes place. This article introduces an alternative methodology to deal with changes in location classes of gas pipelines. Initially, selected codes that utilize location class systems are reviewed. Afterwards, a model for the area affected by an ignition following a natural gas pipeline leak is described. Finally, a methodology to determine the MAOP and third part damage mitigation measures for gas transport pipelines that underwent changes in location class is presented. (author)

  4. Assessing and preparing a pipeline for in line inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, Larry [T.D. Williamson Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2003-07-01

    In today's pipeline environment, operators around the world face new and emerging state and federal regulations requiring validation of their pipelines' integrity. In line inspection, or smart pigging, is generally the preferred methodology used to investigate metal loss and corrosion in pipelines. Although many pipelines can accommodate smart pigging, there are many pipelines that cannot, for various reasons. Those reasons can vary from not having pig launchers and receivers installed on the line to impassable bends or restrictions and general cleanliness of the pipeline itself. Pipeline cleanliness, more times than not, is one of the main reasons for inaccurate in line inspection data gathering or failed smart pig runs. (author)

  5. A new methodology for dynamic modelling of health risks arising from wastewater influenced urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Claus; Mark, Ole; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Hammond, Michael; Khan, David M.; Erichsen, Anders; Dorrit Enevoldsen, Ann; Heinicke, Gerald; Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-04-01

    Indroduction Urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and it has significant economic and social consequences. While the cost of the direct flood damages of urban flooding is well understood, the indirect damages, like the water borne diseases is in general still poorly understood. Climate changes are expected to increase the frequency of urban flooding in many countries which is likely to increase water borne diseases. Diarrheal diseases are most prevalent in developing countries, where poor sanitation, poor drinking water and poor surface water quality causes a high disease burden and mortality, especially during floods. The level of water borne diarrhea in countries with well-developed water and waste water infrastructure has been reduced to an acceptable level, and the population in general do not consider waste water as being a health risk. Hence, exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water still has the potential to cause transmission of diarrheal diseases. When managing urban flooding and planning urban climate change adaptations, health risks are rarely taken into consideration. This paper outlines a novel methodology for linking dynamic urban flood modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). This provides a unique possibility for understanding the interaction between urban flooding and the health risks caused by direct human contact with flood water and provides an option for reducing the burden of disease in the population through the use of intelligent urban flood risk management. Methodology We have linked hydrodynamic urban flood modelling with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine the risk of infection caused by exposure to wastewater influenced urban flood water. The deterministic model MIKE Flood, which integrates the sewer network model in MIKE Urban and the 2D surface model MIKE21, was used to calculate the concentration of pathogens in the

  6. Risk vs. Reward: A Methodology to Assess Investment in Marine Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Hutcheson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The majority of WEC (wave energy converter projects are expensive and pose a large risk to a developer. Currently no developers have been successful in commercialising a WEC. So far, many wave energy feasibility studies have only considered the LCOE (levelised cost of electricity, assessing investment in marine energy technologies from a purely financial point of view. No previous studies have, however, explicitly accounted for development risk as well as the LCOE to determine the feasibility of a project. This paper proposes a new methodology that can be used to account for both risk and the LCOE to give a clearer picture of the feasibility of a WEC development. By combining the LCOE and risk score for a particular development, the “value for risk” can be calculated, presented here as the “RR ratio” (“Risk/Reward ratio”. A number of case studies were chosen to test the model, investigating the RR ratio for a number of different WEC technologies and ranking them to suggest an optimal development path for the industry. Results showed that projects that combine many innovative technologies provide the best “value for risk”. These devices overall had the highest risk, suggesting that multiple developers are likely required to collaborate in order to reduce the risk down to acceptable levels for each.

  7. Effectiveness of the management of price risk methodologies for the corn market based on trading signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Rossouw

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Corn production is scattered geographically over various continents, but most of it is grown in the United States. As such, the world price of corn futures contracts is largely dominated by North American corn prices as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. In recent years, this market has been characterised by an increase in price volatility and magnitude of price movement as a result of decreasing stock levels. The development and implementation of an effective and successful derivative price risk management strategy based on the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures contract will therefore be of inestimable value to market stakeholders worldwide. The research focused on the efficient market hypothesis and the possibility of contesting this phenomenon through an application of a derivative price risk management methodology. The methodology is based on a combination of an analysis of market trends and technical oscillators with the objective of generating returns superior to that of a market benchmark. The study found that market participants are currently unable to exploit price movement in a manner which results in returns that contest the notion of efficient markets. The methodology proposed, however, does allow the user to consistently achieve returns superior to that of a predetermined market benchmark. The benchmark price for the purposes of this study was the average price offered by the market over the contract lifetime, and as such, the efficient market hypothesis was successfully contested

  8. Application fo fault tree methodology in the risk analysis of complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, V. de.

    1984-01-01

    This study intends to describe the fault tree methodology and apply it to risk assessment of complex facilities. In the methodology description, it has been attempted to provide all the pertinent basic information, pointing out its more important aspects like, for instance, fault tree construction, evaluation techniques and their use in risk and reliability assessment of a system. In view of their importance, topics like common mode failures, human errors, data bases used in the calculations, and uncertainty evaluation of the results, will be discussed separately, each one in a chapter. For the purpose of applying the methodology, it was necessary to implement computer codes normally used for this kind of analysis. The computer codes PREP, KITT and SAMPLE, written in FORTRAN IV, were chosen, due to their availability and to the fact that they have been used in important studies of the nuclear area, like Wash-1400. With these codes, the probability of occurence of excessive pressure in the main system of the component test loop - CTC, of CDTN, was evaluated. (Author) [pt

  9. Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Regan, Patrick (Electric Power Research Inst., Knoxville, TN (United States)); Moody, Jim (JHM Consulting, Strafford (United States)); Loetman, Jan (Forsmarks Kraftgrupp AB (Sweden)); Sandstedt, Johan (Risk Pilot AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

  10. Using the EPRI Risk-Informed ISI Methodology on Piping Systems in Forsmark 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Regan, Patrick; Moody, Jim; Loetman, Jan; Sandstedt, Johan

    2010-12-01

    The objective of this project was a pilot plant demonstration of the EPRI RI-ISI Methodology to selected systems at Forsmark, Unit 3 (F3). This scope of this study encompasses five systems and is based upon F3 implementation of SKIFs guidance as well as other consideration as documented in the PMT program. As described in section 2, five systems were selected for evaluation. These systems were selected because they allow this project to focus on a number of issues of interest in developing a RI-ISI methodology and RI-ISI program. This includes the following: - Several different types of degradation may be identified, - Several different types of 'consequence of failure' may be identified, - Different types of safety systems are evaluated - Non-safety systems are evaluated Using the results of this application, insights and comparisons between SKIFS and the EPRI methodologies' are provided including the following: - Consequence of pressure boundary failure (PBF) as described in Section 3.14. - Degradation mechanism evaluation as described in Section 4.8. - Risk ranking as described in Section 5. - Element selection for inspection as described in Section 6. - Risk impact as described in Section 7

  11. Methodologies for measuring travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Shruti; Régner, Isabelle; Brouqui, Philippe; Gautret, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies in the past have stressed the importance of travelers' psychology and perception in the implementation of preventive measures. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the methodologies used in studies reporting on travelers' risk perception of infectious diseases. A systematic search for relevant literature was conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. There were 39 studies identified. In 35 of 39 studies, the methodology used was that of a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey based on questionnaires. One study used a combination of questionnaires and a visual psychometric measuring instrument called the 'pictorial representation of illness and self-measurement" or PRISM. One study used a self-representation model (SRM) method. Two studies measured psychosocial factors. Valuable information was obtained from KAP surveys showing an overall lack of knowledge among travelers about the most frequent travel-associated infections and associated preventive measures. This methodological approach however, is mainly descriptive, addressing knowledge, attitudes, and practices separately and lacking an examination of the interrelationships between these three components. Another limitation of the KAP method is underestimating psychosocial variables that have proved influential in health related behaviors, including perceived benefits and costs of preventive measures, perceived social pressure, perceived personal control, unrealistic optimism and risk propensity. Future risk perception studies in travel medicine should consider psychosocial variables with inferential and multivariate statistical analyses. The use of implicit measurements of attitudes could also provide new insights in the field of travelers' risk perception of travel-associated infectious diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A MAINTENANCE STRATEGY MODEL FOR STATIC EQUIPMENT USING INSPECTION METHODOLOGIES AND RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.K. Visser

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Mechanical equipment used on process plants can be categorised into two main types, namely static and rotating equipment. A brief survey at a number of chemical process plants indicated that a number of maintenance strategies exist and are used for rotating equipment. However, some of these strategies are not directly applicable to static equipment, although the risk-based inspection (RBI methodology has been developed for pressure vessels. A generalised risk-based maintenance strategy for all types of static equipment does not currently exist. This paper describes the development of an optimised model of inspection methodologies, maintenance strategies, and risk management principles that are generically applicable for static equipment. It enables maintenance managers and engineers to select an applicable maintenance strategy and inspection methodology, based on the operational and business risks posed by the individual pieces of equipment.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Meganiese toerusting wat op prosesaanlegte gebruik word kan in twee kategorieë verdeel word, naamlik statiese en roterende toerusting. 'n Bondige ondersoek by 'n aantal chemiese prosesaanlegte het aangedui dat 'n aantal strategieë vir instandhouding van roterende toerusting gebruik word, terwyl die risikogebaseerde inspeksiemetodologie wel vir drukvate gebruik word. 'n Algemene risikogebaseerde instandhoudingstrategie vir alle tipes statiese toerusting is egter nie tans beskikbaar nie. Hierdie artikel beskryf die ontwikkeling van 'n geoptimeerde model van inspeksiemetodologieë, instandhoudingstrategieë, en risikobestuursbeginsels wat algemeen gebruik kan word vir statiese toerusting. Dit stel die instandhouding-bestuurders en -ingenieurs in staat om 'n instandhoudingstrategie en inspeksie-metodologie te kies, gebaseer op die operasionele en besigheidsrisiko's van die individuele toerusting.

  13. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V.

    2007-01-01

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  14. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V. [Electrical Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 (India)

    2007-12-15

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  15. North America pipeline map

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2005-01-01

    This map presents details of pipelines currently in place throughout North America. Fifty-nine natural gas pipelines are presented, as well as 16 oil pipelines. The map also identifies six proposed natural gas pipelines. Major cities, roads and highways are included as well as state and provincial boundaries. The National Petroleum Reserve is identified, as well as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The following companies placed advertisements on the map with details of the services they provide relating to pipeline management and construction: Ferus Gas Industries Trust; Proline; SulfaTreat Direct Oxidation; and TransGas. 1 map

  16. A proposed approach to backfit decision-making using risk assessment and benefit-cost methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Donnell, E.P.; Raney, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper outlines a proposed approach to backfit decision-making which utilizes quantitative risk assessment techniques, benefit-cost methodology and decision criteria. In general terms, it is structured to provide an objective framework for decision-making aimed at ensuring a positive return on backfit investment while allowing for inclusion of subjective value judgments by the decision-maker. The distributions of the independent variables are combined to arrive at an overall probability distribution for the benefit-cost ratio. In this way, the decision-maker can explicitly establish the probability or level of confidence that a particular backfit will yield benefits in excess of cost. An example is presented demonstrating the application of methodology to a specific plant backfit. (orig.)

  17. Geotechnical characterization and finite element pipe/soil interaction modeling of a pipeline installed in an actively moving, permafrost slope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bidwell, A. [AMEC Earth and Environmental, Calgary, AB (Canada); Sen, M.; Pederson, I. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Edmonton, AB (Canada); Yoosef-Ghodsi, N. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This paper discussed a pipeline integrity analysis for a buried crude-oil pipeline at a site characterized by unstable permafrost slopes. Data collected from piezometers, inclinometers, and thermistor cables installed as part of a comprehensive geotechnical monitoring program were used to determine the geotechnical character of the site and model pipe/soil interactions. A finite element pipe/soil interaction model was developed to estimate the potential strain to the pipeline capacity in a worst-case scenario involving mass soil movement. The purpose was to determine the necessity of costly mitigation measures. The model showed that the pipeline strain capacity is unlikely to be exceeded in the event of a sudden ground movement at the slope. The soil, permafrost, and slope movement conditions at the site were described along with the methodology and results of the pipe/soil interaction model. The model, in which the pipeline is considered as a continuous structural beam, was used to analyze both the estimated current slope movement and the worst case large magnitude slope movement. To assess the pipeline integrity in the event of mass slope movement, the expected strain demand was compared to the strain capacity, taking into account whether the pipe is heavy wall, line pipe, or containing girth welds. The analysis indicated that the risk of pipeline failure is low in the event of a large magnitude slope movement. The pipe strain measurements were found to be within the design limits for the pipeline. The analysis is relevant to other northern pipeline and linear infrastructure developments. 8 refs., 6 figs.

  18. Qualification program of the ASTRID SFR project: definition, methodology and associated risk evaluation and management - 15093

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, G.; Dirat, J.F.; Traina, A.; Christofari, M.

    2015-01-01

    The Preconceptual Design phase of the ASTRID French Sodium Fast Reactor project had the objective to integrate innovative options to meet the requirements of the 4. generation reactors and to comply with the related specifications. It was followed by the conceptual phase studies (AVP2 phase 2013-2015) where some technical options are left opened with an advanced option and a backup alternative. In the same time of the AVP2 phase studies, the qualification program related to ASTRID project was initiated. It consists in collecting the exhaustive list of research/development (R/D) needs and technological demonstration tests to be fulfilled on representative mockup prior to component implementation in the prototype. The ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) objectives are to collect needs expressed by all engineering companies involved in ASTRID, and then to organize the answer to this expression of needs. This significant work of needs compilation has been divided in several tasks, according to the ASTRID project decomposition in the Product Breakdown Structure (PBS). Compilation of needs was jointly performed by engineering company, R/D responsible and coordinated by the ASTRID Qualification project responsible. It was associated with an evaluation of the maturity level of the technical options thanks to a Technological Readiness Level grid (TRL ranking table), an identification of major risks, and an evaluation of the R/D potentiality and associated facility platform. The methodology applied for the ASTRID Qualification Program (AQP) is presented. It is explained what methodology was used associated to the TRL process, and how is managed the associated risk analysis evaluation: evaluation of major risks, definition of a risk portfolio and a corresponding Action Plan for risk reduction (synthesized under the REM acronym: Risk Evaluation and Management). This methodology is a mean used to facilitate ASTRID risk-informed decision making, technology qualification and

  19. An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

    1999-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

  20. An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-18

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic

  1. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  2. Assessment of ISLOCA risk: Methodology and application to a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Gertman, D.I.

    1992-04-01

    This report presents information essential to understanding the risk associated with inter-system loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs). The methodology developed and presented in the report provides a state-of-the-art method for identifying and evaluating plant-specific hardware design, human performance issues, and accident consequence factors to relevant to the prediction of the ISLOCA risk. This ISLOCA methodology was developed and then applied to a Babcock and Wilcox (B ampersand W) nuclear power plants. The results from this application are described in detail. For this particular B ampersand W reference plant, the assessment indicated that the probability of a severe ISLOCA is approximately 2.2E-06/reactor-year. This document Volume 3 provides appendices A--H of the report. Topics are: Historical experience related to ISLOCA events; component failure rates; reference B ampersand W plant system descriptions; reference B ampersand W plant ISLOCA event trees; Human reliability analysis for the B ampersand W ISLOCA probabilistic risk assessment; thermal hydraulic calculations; bounding core uncovery time calculations; and system rupture probability

  3. Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Johnathan

    2003-05-01

    This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

  4. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2013-06-01

    Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  5. Comparison of the DOE and the EPA risk assessment methodologies and default parameters for the air exposure pathway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Z.; Eckart, R.

    1993-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) each publish radiological health effects risk assessment methodologies. Those methodologies are in the form of computer program models or extensive documentation. This research paper compares the significant differences between the DOE and EPA methodologies and default parameters for the important air exposure pathway. The purpose of this analysis was to determine the fundamental differences in methodology and parameter values between the DOE and the EPA. This study reviewed the parameter values and default values that are utilized in the air exposure pathway and revealed the significant differences in risk assessment results when default values are used in the analysis of an actual site. The study details the sources and the magnitude of the parameter departures between the DOE and the EPA methodologies and their impact on dose or risk

  6. Research on Connection and Function Reliability of the Oil&Gas Pipeline System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Bo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pipeline transportation is the optimal way for energy delivery in terms of safety, efficiency and environmental protection. Because of the complexity of pipeline external system including geological hazards, social and cultural influence, it is a great challenge to operate the pipeline safely and reliable. Therefore, the pipeline reliability becomes an important issue. Based on the classical reliability theory, the analysis of pipeline system is carried out, then the reliability model of the pipeline system is built, and the calculation is addressed thereafter. Further the connection and function reliability model is applied to a practical active pipeline system, with the use of the proposed methodology of the pipeline system; the connection reliability and function reliability are obtained. This paper firstly presented to considerate the connection and function reliability separately and obtain significant contribution to establish the mathematical reliability model of pipeline system, hence provide fundamental groundwork for the pipeline reliability research in the future.

  7. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  8. Hygrothermal risk on building heritage a methodology for a risk map

    CERN Document Server

    Delgado, João M P Q; Freitas, Vasco Peixoto

    2015-01-01

    This book presents a critical review of a criterion of risk, created to assess the flood risk to heritage buildings, and evaluates this criterion by applying it to the sample Portuguese heritage buildings. In a first approach, the total number of potential parameters is effectively reduced and the selected criteria are divided into two different groups: the monument’s location in relation to a waterway, and the behaviour of its construction material in contact with water. Above all, the book discusses the importance of architectural heritage and argues for the need to safeguard it from extreme climatic phenomena such as floods. As such, the book vividly reminds the scientific community that the intensification of the global warming and climate change will worsen throughout the 21st century, and that it is therefore necessary to adopt preventive measures to minimize, mitigate and control these adverse effects if we hope to avoid catastrophic consequences. At the same time, the book takes into account a broad...

  9. Methodology and results of risk assessment of interconnections within the JET active gas handling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballantyne, P.R.; Bell, A.C.; Konstantellos, A.; Hemmerich, J.L.

    1992-01-01

    The Joint European Torus (JET) Active Gas Handling System (AGHS) is a complex interconnection of numerous subsystems. While individual subsystems were assessed for their risk of operation, an assessment of the effects of inadvertent interconnections was needed. A systematic method to document the assessment was devised to ease the assessment of complex plant and was applied to the AGHS. The methodology, application to AGHS, the four critical issues and required plant modifications as a result of this assessment are briefly discussed in this paper

  10. Applicability of risk-informed criticality methodology to spent fuel repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mays, C.; Thomas, D.A.; Favet, D.

    2000-01-01

    An important objective of geologic disposal is keeping the fissionable material in a condition so that a self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction (criticality) is highly unlikely. This objective supports the overall performance objective of any repository, which is to protect the health and safety of the public by limiting radiological exposure. This paper describes a risk-informed, performance-based methodology, which combines deterministic and probabilistic approaches for evaluating the criticality potential of high-level waste and spent nuclear fuel after the repository is sealed and permanently closed (postclosure). (authors)

  11. Postclosure risks at the proposed Yucca Mountain repository: A review of methodological and technical issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emel, J.; Kasperson, R.E.; Goble, R.; Renn, O.

    1988-06-01

    Accordingly, the first section of the report provides an overview and critique of the risk analysis methodology proposed by the US Department of Energy (DOE 1988) in the Draft Site Characterization Plan (SCP) and related documents. The second section addresses specific technical problems associated with the site. Each section considers the significance or implications of the issues for the successful long-term isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere. We conclude with overall observations on the adequacy of current understandings and approaches in the waste disposal program and implications for the State of Nevada

  12. [Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

    2011-01-01

    Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

  13. Forward Commitment Procurement : A practical methodology that helps to manage risk in procuring innovative goods and services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whyles, G.; Meerveld, H. van; Nauta, N.J.

    2015-01-01

    The Forward Commitment Procurement (FCP) is a Public Procurement of Innovation (PPI) methodology. It was specifically designed to both provide a practical methodology for procurers to follow and to manage the perceived risk of the customer and supplier in innovation investments. The paper describes

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

  15. A Hybrid Methodology for Modeling Risk of Adverse Events in Complex Health-Care Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali; Dierks, Meghan

    2017-03-01

    In spite of increased attention to quality and efforts to provide safe medical care, adverse events (AEs) are still frequent in clinical practice. Reports from various sources indicate that a substantial number of hospitalized patients suffer treatment-caused injuries while in the hospital. While risk cannot be entirely eliminated from health-care activities, an important goal is to develop effective and durable mitigation strategies to render the system "safer." In order to do this, though, we must develop models that comprehensively and realistically characterize the risk. In the health-care domain, this can be extremely challenging due to the wide variability in the way that health-care processes and interventions are executed and also due to the dynamic nature of risk in this particular domain. In this study, we have developed a generic methodology for evaluating dynamic changes in AE risk in acute care hospitals as a function of organizational and nonorganizational factors, using a combination of modeling formalisms. First, a system dynamics (SD) framework is used to demonstrate how organizational-level and policy-level contributions to risk evolve over time, and how policies and decisions may affect the general system-level contribution to AE risk. It also captures the feedback of organizational factors and decisions over time and the nonlinearities in these feedback effects. SD is a popular approach to understanding the behavior of complex social and economic systems. It is a simulation-based, differential equation modeling tool that is widely used in situations where the formal model is complex and an analytical solution is very difficult to obtain. Second, a Bayesian belief network (BBN) framework is used to represent patient-level factors and also physician-level decisions and factors in the management of an individual patient, which contribute to the risk of hospital-acquired AE. BBNs are networks of probabilities that can capture probabilistic relations

  16. Application of Bayesian network methodology to the probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2006-02-01

    The scenario in a risk analysis can be defined as the propagating feature of specific initiating event which can go to a wide range of undesirable consequences. If one takes various scenarios into consideration, the risk analysis becomes more complex than do without them. A lot of risk analyses have been performed to actually estimate a risk profile under both uncertain future states of hazard sources and undesirable scenarios. Unfortunately, in case of considering some stochastic passive systems such as a radioactive waste disposal facility, since the behaviour of future scenarios is hardly predicted without special reasoning process, we cannot estimate their risk only with a traditional risk analysis methodology. Moreover, it is believed that the sources of uncertainty at future states can be reduced pertinently by setting up dependency relationships interrelating geological, hydrological, and ecological aspects of the site with all the scenarios. It is then required current methodology of uncertainty analysis of the waste disposal facility be revisited under this belief. In order to consider the effects predicting from an evolution of environmental conditions of waste disposal facilities, this study proposes a quantitative assessment framework integrating the inference process of Bayesian network to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis. In this study an approximate probabilistic inference program for the specific Bayesian network developed and verified using a bounded-variance likelihood weighting algorithm. Ultimately, specific models, including a Monte-Carlo model for uncertainty propagation of relevant parameters, were developed with a comparison of variable-specific effects due to the occurrence of diverse altered evolution scenarios (AESs). After providing supporting information to get a variety of quantitative expectations about the dependency relationship between domain variables and AESs, this study could connect the results of probabilistic

  17. Pipelines 'R' us

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, P.

    1997-01-01

    The geopolitical background to the export of oil and gas from Kazakhstan by pipeline is explored with particular reference to the sensitivities of the USA. There are now a number of pipeline proposals which would enable Kazakhstan to get its hydrocarbons to world markets. The construction of two of these formed part of a major oil deal signed recently with China in the face of stiff competition from major US companies. The most convenient and cost effective route, connecting up with Iran's existing pipeline network to the Gulf, is unlikely to be developed given continuing US sanctions against Iran. Equally unlikely seems to be the Turkmenistan to Pakistan pipeline in the light of the political volatility of Afghanistan. US companies continue to face limits on export capacity via the existing Russian pipelines from Kazakhstan. A temporary solution could be to carry some oil in the existing pipeline from Azerbaijan to Georgia which has been upgraded and is due to become operational soon, and later in a second proposed pipeline on this route. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, consisting of three countries and eleven international companies, is building a 1500 km pipeline from the Tergiz field to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea with a view to completion in 2000. An undersea pipeline crossing the Caspian from Azerbaijan is being promoted by Turkey. There is an international perception that within the next five years Kazakhstan could be in a position to export its oil via as many as half a dozen different routes. (UK)

  18. Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

    2015-05-15

    This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Probablistic risk assessment methodology application to Indian pressurised heavy water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babar, A.K.; Grover, R.B.; Mehra, V.K.; Gangwal, D.K.; Chakraborty, G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment in the context of nuclear power plants is associated with models that predict the offsite radiological releases resulting from reactor accidents. Level 1 PRA deals with the identification of accident sequences relevant to the design of a system and also with their quantitative estimation. It is characterised by event tree, fault tree analysis. The initiating events applicable to pressurised heavy water reactors have been considered and the dominating initiating events essential for detailed studies are identified in this paper. Reliability analysis and the associated problems encountered during the case studies are mentioned briefly. It is imperative to validate the failure data used for analysis. Bayesian technique has been employed for the same and a brief account is included herein. A few important observations, e.g. effects of the presence of moderator, made during the application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology are also discussed. (author)

  20. Standardization of natural phenomena risk assessment methodology at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J.C.; Hsu, Y.S.

    1985-01-01

    Safety analyses at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) normally require consideration of the risks of incidents caused by natural events such as high-velocity straight winds, tornadic winds, and earthquakes. The probabilities for these events to occur at SRP had been studied independently by several investigators, but the results of their studies were never systematically evaluated. As part of the endeavor to standardize our environmental risk assessment methodology, these independent studies have been thoroughly reviewed and critiqued, and appropriate probability models for these natural events have been selected. The selected probability models for natural phenomena, high-velocity straight winds and tornadic winds in particular, are in agreement with those being used at other DOE sites, and have been adopted as a guide for all safety studies conducted for SRP operations and facilities. 7 references, 3 figures

  1. Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukutani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response

  2. Pipeline integrity: ILI baseline data for QRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, Todd R. [Tuboscope Pipeline Services, Houston, TX (United States)]. E-mail: tporter@varco.com; Silva, Jose Augusto Pereira da [Pipeway Engenharia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: guto@pipeway.com; Marr, James [MARR and Associates, Calgary, AB (Canada)]. E-mail: jmarr@marr-associates.com

    2003-07-01

    The initial phase of a pipeline integrity management program (IMP) is conducting a baseline assessment of the pipeline system and segments as part of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). This gives the operator's integrity team the opportunity to identify critical areas and deficiencies in the protection, maintenance, and mitigation strategies. As a part of data gathering and integration of a wide variety of sources, in-line inspection (ILI) data is a key element. In order to move forward in the integrity program development and execution, the baseline geometry of the pipeline must be determined with accuracy and confidence. From this, all subsequent analysis and conclusions will be derived. Tuboscope Pipeline Services (TPS), in conjunction with Pipeway Engenharia of Brazil, operate ILI inertial navigation system (INS) and Caliper geometry tools, to address this integrity requirement. This INS and Caliper ILI tool data provides pipeline trajectory at centimeter level resolution and sub-metre 3D position accuracy along with internal geometry - ovality, dents, misalignment, and wrinkle/buckle characterization. Global strain can be derived from precise INS curvature measurements and departure from the initial pipeline state. Accurate pipeline elevation profile data is essential in the identification of sag/over bend sections for fluid dynamic and hydrostatic calculations. This data, along with pipeline construction, operations, direct assessment and maintenance data is integrated in LinaViewPRO{sup TM}, a pipeline data management system for decision support functions, and subsequent QRA operations. This technology provides the baseline for an informed, accurate and confident integrity management program. This paper/presentation will detail these aspects of an effective IMP, and experience will be presented, showing the benefits for liquid and gas pipeline systems. (author)

  3. Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

    2013-09-17

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.

  4. Thermal disposal of waste containing nanomaterials: first investigations on a methodology for risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ounoughene, G.; Joubert, A.; Le Coq, L.; LeBihan, O.; Debray, B.; Chivas-Joly, C.; Longuet, C.; Lopez-Cuesta, J-M.

    2017-01-01

    Considering the wide use and production of NMs since last two decades, these trendy nanomaterials (NMs) are expected to end up in thermal disposal and waste incineration plants (WIP). It seems relevant to assess the risks related to the thermal disposal and incineration of waste containing NMs (WCNMs). The objective of this work is to present a first approach to develop a preliminary methodology for risk management in order (1) to give insights on nanosafety of exposed operators and on potential environmental risks related to the incineration and thermal disposal of WCNMs, and (2) to eventually support decision-makers and incineration plant managers. Therefore, the main challenge is to find (a) key parameter(s) which would govern the decision related to risk management of NMs thermal disposal. On the one hand, we focused on the relevant literature studies about experimental works on incineration of NMs. On the other hand, we conducted an introductory discussion with a group of experts. The review of this literature highlights that the nano-object’s nanostructure destruction appears as a relevant indicator of the risks related to the NMs incineration. As a consequence, we defined a “temperature of nanostructure destruction” (TND) which would be the temperature from which the nanostructure will be destroyed. This parameter has been assumed to be a consistent indicator to develop a preliminary methodology. If the combustion chamber temperature is higher than the TND of the NM (or if they are close to each other), then the nanostructure will be destroyed and no risks related to NMs remain. If the TND of the NMs is higher than the combustion chamber temperature, then the nanostructure will not be destroyed and risks related to NMs have to be considered. As a result, five groups of NMs have been identified. WCNMs including carbonic NMs appear to be in good position to be destroyed safely in WIP. On the other hand, based on this criterion, there would be no

  5. Thermal disposal of waste containing nanomaterials: first investigations on a methodology for risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ounoughene, G.; LeBihan, O.; Debray, B.; Chivas-Joly, C.; Longuet, C.; Joubert, A.; Lopez-Cuesta, J.-M.; Le Coq, L.

    2017-06-01

    Considering the wide use and production of NMs since last two decades, these trendy nanomaterials (NMs) are expected to end up in thermal disposal and waste incineration plants (WIP). It seems relevant to assess the risks related to the thermal disposal and incineration of waste containing NMs (WCNMs). The objective of this work is to present a first approach to develop a preliminary methodology for risk management in order (1) to give insights on nanosafety of exposed operators and on potential environmental risks related to the incineration and thermal disposal of WCNMs, and (2) to eventually support decision-makers and incineration plant managers. Therefore, the main challenge is to find (a) key parameter(s) which would govern the decision related to risk management of NMs thermal disposal. On the one hand, we focused on the relevant literature studies about experimental works on incineration of NMs. On the other hand, we conducted an introductory discussion with a group of experts. The review of this literature highlights that the nano-object’s nanostructure destruction appears as a relevant indicator of the risks related to the NMs incineration. As a consequence, we defined a “temperature of nanostructure destruction” (TND) which would be the temperature from which the nanostructure will be destroyed. This parameter has been assumed to be a consistent indicator to develop a preliminary methodology. If the combustion chamber temperature is higher than the TND of the NM (or if they are close to each other), then the nanostructure will be destroyed and no risks related to NMs remain. If the TND of the NMs is higher than the combustion chamber temperature, then the nanostructure will not be destroyed and risks related to NMs have to be considered. As a result, five groups of NMs have been identified. WCNMs including carbonic NMs appear to be in good position to be destroyed safely in WIP. On the other hand, based on this criterion, there would be no

  6. RiskSOAP: Introducing and applying a methodology of risk self-awareness in road tunnel safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatzimichailidou, Maria Mikela; Dokas, Ioannis M

    2016-05-01

    Complex socio-technical systems, such as road tunnels, can be designed and developed with more or less elements that can either positively or negatively affect the capability of their agents to recognise imminent threats or vulnerabilities that possibly lead to accidents. This capability is called risk Situation Awareness (SA) provision. Having as a motive the introduction of better tools for designing and developing systems that are self-aware of their vulnerabilities and react to prevent accidents and losses, this paper introduces the Risk Situation Awareness Provision (RiskSOAP) methodology to the field of road tunnel safety, as a means to measure this capability in this kind of systems. The main objective is to test the soundness and the applicability of RiskSOAP to infrastructure, which is advanced in terms of technology, human integration, and minimum number of safety requirements imposed by international bodies. RiskSOAP is applied to a specific road tunnel in Greece and the accompanying indicator is calculated twice, once for the tunnel design as defined by updated European safety standards and once for the 'as-is' tunnel composition, which complies with the necessary safety requirements, but calls for enhancing safety according to what EU and PIARC further suggest. The derived values indicate the extent to which each tunnel version is capable of comprehending its threats and vulnerabilities based on its elements. The former tunnel version seems to be more enhanced both in terms of it risk awareness capability and safety as well. Another interesting finding is that despite the advanced tunnel safety specifications, there is still room for enriching the safe design and maintenance of the road tunnel. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Hazard identification studies applied to oil pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savio, Augusto; Alpert, Melina L. [TECNA S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)], e-mail: asavio@tecna.com, e-mail: malpert@tecna.com

    2008-07-01

    In order to assess risks inherent to an Oil Pipeline, it is imperative to analyze what happens 'outside the process'. HAZID (HAZard IDentification) studies are mainly carried out for this purpose. HAZID is a formal study which identifies hazards and risks associated to an operation or facility and enable its acceptability assessment. It is a brainstorming exercise guided by a typical 'Checklist', divided into four Sections: External, Facilities and Health Hazards and Issues pertaining to Project Execution, which are further subdivided into Hazard Categories. For each Category, there are 'Guide-words' and 'Prompts'. Even if an Oil Pipeline Risk Assessment can be performed by means of the above referred 'Checklist', carrying out the actual process can become lengthy and annoying due to the lack of specificity. This work aims at presenting the most suitable 'Checklist' for the identification of Oil Pipeline Risk Assessment, although it could be used for Gas Pipeline Risk Assessment too. Prepared ad hoc, this list, is based on the spill causes established by CONCAWE (CONservation of Clean Air Water in Europe). Performing Oil Pipeline Risk Assessment by means of specially formulated Checklist enables the Study Team to easily identify risks, shortens execution time and provides both accuracy and specificity. (author)

  8. Induced voltages in metallic pipelines near power transmission lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grcev, Leonid; Jankov, Voislav; Filiposki, Velimir

    2002-01-01

    With the continuous development of the electric power system and the pipeline networks used to convey oil or natural gas, cases of close proximity of high voltage structures and metallic pipelines become more and more frequent. Accordingly there is a growing concern about possible hazards resulting from voltages induced in the metallic pipelines by magnetic coupling with nearby power transmission lines. This paper presents a methodology for computation of the induced voltages in buried isolated metallic pipelines. A practical example of computation is also presented. (Author)

  9. Decontamination device for pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harashina, Heihachi.

    1994-01-01

    Pipelines to be decontaminated are parts of pipelines contaminated with radioactive materials, and they are connected to a fluid transfer means (for example, a bladeless pump) and a ball collector by way of a connector. The fluid of a mixture of chemical decontaminating liquid and spheres is sent into pipelines to be decontaminated. The spheres are, for example, heat resistant porous hard or soft rubber spheres. The fluid discharged from the pipelines to be decontaminated are circulated by way of bypassing means. The inner surface of the pipelines is decontaminated by the circulation of the fluid. When the bypass means is closed, the fluid discharged from the pipelines to be decontaminated is sent to the ball collector, and the spheres are captured by a hopper. Further, the liquid is sent to the filtrating means to filter the chemical contaminating liquid, and sludges contained in the liquid are captured. (I.N.)

  10. Overview of slurry pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gandhi, R L

    1982-01-01

    Slurry pipelines have proven to be a technically feasible, environmentally attractive and economic method of transporting finely divided particles over long distances. A pipeline system normally consists of preparation, pipeline and utilization facilities and requires optimization of all three components taken together. A considerable amount of research work has been done to develop hydraulic design of a slurry pipeline. Equipment selection and estimation of corrosion-erosion are considered to be as important as the hydraulic design. Future applications are expected to be for the large-scale transport of coal and for the exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits such as iron ore and copper. Application of slurry pipelines for the exploitation of remotely located mineral deposits is illustrated by the Kudremukh iron concentrate slurry pipeline in India.

  11. Risk analysis methodology in microbiological assays of 99mTc lyophilized kits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro Isaac, Marilín; Suárez Beyries, Karina; Alberti Ramírez, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    The operations with medications require of the execution of requirements settled down in the Good Practices, with the objective of guaranteeing the quality, security and effectiveness of the same ones. The Good Practices of Production of Pharmaceutical Products (BPF), are essential parts of the Quality Management System, to which incorporates like integral part the Quality Risk Assessment (ARC). The System of ARC is directed mainly to guarantee the patient's health, which can be affected so much by the lack of readiness of the medications, like for a quality, security and inadequate effectiveness of these products. As part of the process of ARC, tools will be applied with the objective of establishing a process of taking of decisions with a scientific and practice bases. The Modal Analysis of Flaw and Effect (AMFE) is one of the tools that is used to evaluate the shortcomings that can happen in a process and their probable consequences in the results and/or in the behavior of the products. In this work the methodology settled down to carry out the evaluation of the risk of flaw of the quality microbiological of the lyophilized taken place in CENTIS, using the method AMFE. The scales of values settled down for the severity (S), the occurrence probability (OR) and the detection probability (D) and the levels of risk starting from the risk matrix obtained.

  12. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO RESEARCH METHODOLOGY OF SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY IN THE FIELD OF RISK MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Volokhova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper defines the role of insurance and risk management in corporate social responsibility. Analysed some of the social problems of certain sectors of the economy and the distribution of investments by insurance companies in a socially-oriented areas of the economy. The result of the analysis show that the problem of insurance and risk management should be directed to the development of innovative insurance products that would receive specific corporate social value by real locating investments. To better study on strategic risk - management must diversify and improve the traditionally accepted methodological tools. We consider the theory of positional feedback and corresponding IRT innovative model for analysis of complex, highly-defined characteristics of this sector. In order to determine a common objective evaluation system of corporate social responsibility for all companies emphasis on practical social benefits as measuring the effectiveness and success of socially responsible activities, the benefits that the company will receive from the decision of the social project. The proposed comprehensive system of indicators based insurance, which allows you to deepen the study of social responsibility in risk management strategies. The indicator system includes the following sections: 1. Navkolyshnye environment. 2. Local government (social security community. 3. Occupational Safety. 4. Internal corporate relations. 5. Equality. 6. Product Attributes. 7. Management. 8. The interest of business. 9. Liability business. 10. Socially responsible insurance. The comparative characteristic of the efficacy of social activity of companies and assess their socio-oriented activities for the previous ten years.

  14. A methodology for estimating potential doses and risks from recycling U.S. Department of Energy radioactive scrap metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKinney, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering writing regulations for the controlled use of materials originating from radioactively contaminated zones which may be recyclable. These materials include metals, such as steel (carbon and stainless), nickel, copper, aluminum and lead, from the decommissioning of federal, and non-federal facilities. To develop criteria for the release of such materials, a risk analysis of all potential exposure pathways should be conducted. These pathways include direct exposure to the recycled material by the public and workers, both individual and collective, as well as numerous other potential exposure pathways in the life of the material. EPA has developed a risk assessment methodology for estimating doses and risks associated with recycling radioactive scrap metals. This methodology was applied to metal belonging to the U.S. Department of Energy. This paper will discuss the draft EPA risk assessment methodology as a tool for estimating doses and risks from recycling. (author)

  15. Seismic response of buried pipelines: a state-of-the-art review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, T.K.

    1999-01-01

    A state-of-the-art review of the seismic response of buried pipelines is presented. The review includes modeling of soil-pipe system and seismic excitation, methods of response analysis of buried pipelines, seismic behavior of buried pipelines under different parametric variations, seismic stresses at the bends and intersections of network of pipelines. pipe damage in earthquakes and seismic risk analysis of buried pipelines. Based on the review, the future scope of work on the subject is outlined. (orig.)

  16. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  17. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  18. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  19. A fully-automated software pipeline for integrating breast density and parenchymal texture analysis for digital mammograms: parameter optimization in a case-control breast cancer risk assessment study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yuanjie; Wang, Yan; Keller, Brad M.; Conant, Emily; Gee, James C.; Kontos, Despina

    2013-02-01

    Estimating a woman's risk of breast cancer is becoming increasingly important in clinical practice. Mammographic density, estimated as the percent of dense (PD) tissue area within the breast, has been shown to be a strong risk factor. Studies also support a relationship between mammographic texture and breast cancer risk. We have developed a fullyautomated software pipeline for computerized analysis of digital mammography parenchymal patterns by quantitatively measuring both breast density and texture properties. Our pipeline combines advanced computer algorithms of pattern recognition, computer vision, and machine learning and offers a standardized tool for breast cancer risk assessment studies. Different from many existing methods performing parenchymal texture analysis within specific breast subregions, our pipeline extracts texture descriptors for points on a spatial regular lattice and from a surrounding window of each lattice point, to characterize the local mammographic appearance throughout the whole breast. To demonstrate the utility of our pipeline, and optimize its parameters, we perform a case-control study by retrospectively analyzing a total of 472 digital mammography studies. Specifically, we investigate the window size, which is a lattice related parameter, and compare the performance of texture features to that of breast PD in classifying case-control status. Our results suggest that different window sizes may be optimal for raw (12.7mm2) versus vendor post-processed images (6.3mm2). We also show that the combination of PD and texture features outperforms PD alone. The improvement is significant (p=0.03) when raw images and window size of 12.7mm2 are used, having an ROC AUC of 0.66. The combination of PD and our texture features computed from post-processed images with a window size of 6.3 mm2 achieves an ROC AUC of 0.75.

  20. Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

  1. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Berbano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One major environmental concern associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of short- and long-term quantitative risks to the environment resulting from release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. The paper describes a comprehensive model developed during 1976 for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model consisted of a release or fault-tree model, an environmental model and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of radioactive and non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short term to develop general environmental standards applicable to any radioactive waste management

  2. Comparison of risk assessment methodologies for nuclear power and nuclear fuels processing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.; Walker, D.H.

    1986-08-01

    The utilization of nuclear fission for the generation of electric power or other purposes has as its by-product radioactive fission products. These radioactive fission products represent a potential hazard different in nature from that associated with other process operations or other methods of electrical power generation. As a result the electrical power stations and the facilities designed to process the irradiated fuel to recover the still useful fuel and the products of the irradiation are designed with multiple physical barriers to contain the radioactive fission products in the event that an accident were to occur. In recent years, a disciplined approach has evolved for developing detailed models of a facility and its processes. These models can be used to assess the response for the facility to upset or accident events. The approach is based on an ordered application of available data employing fault tree/event tree methodologies. Data and/or engineering judgment are applied in a probabilisitc framework so the approach has been called Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The approach has been applied to nuclear electric generating facilities and to nuclear fuel processing facilities to assess the potential for release of fission product and transuranium element radionuclides (the hazard) and the resulting risks. The application of the methodology to the electrical generating facilities and to the fuel processing facilities has evolved somewhat differently because of differences in the facilities, availability of failure rate data, and expected outputs. This paper summarizes the two approaches and the differences in them compares the risk results from the existing studies

  3. An assessment methodology of environmental risks associated with radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, S.M.; Logan, S.E.; Brebano, M.C.

    1977-01-01

    One of the major environmental concerns associated with the projected increase in nuclear power generation is the treatment and storage or disposal of radioactive wastes. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in collaboration with the University of New Mexico has been developing a detailed assessment methodology of both the short-term as well as long-term quantitative risks on the environment resulting from the release of radionuclides during all phases of radioactive waste management operations. This past year a comprehensive model has been developed for the public health and environmental impacts from the disposal of high-level and transuranic waste in geological formations. Parametric studies have been performed with this model for various geological disposal media and for waste in different forms. EPA has planned to utilize these parametric risk calculations to translate probabilities and consequences of risk occurrences into a cost-effectiveness perspective for decision-making purposes. This comprehensive model has consisted of a release or fault tree model, an environmental model, and an economic model. Fault trees have been constructed to provide the relationships between various geophysical, meteorological, and man-caused events which are potential mechanisms for release of radioactive material to the environment from waste repositories. The environmental model includes the transport to and accumulations at various receptors in the biosphere, including a determination of pathways from environmental input concentrations to radiation dose to man. Finally, the economic results are used to compare and assess the various disposal concepts as a basis for formulating policy decisions. Implementation of this assessment methodology is possible for a whole range of both radioactive as well as non-radioactive hazardous materials which require perpetual care. Further, the output will be used by EPA in the short-term to develop general environmental standards

  4. Seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanzano, Giovanni; Salzano, Ernesto; Santucci de Magistris, Filippo; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    This work deals with the analysis of the interaction of earthquakes with pipelines transporting and distributing natural gas for industrial and civil use. To this aim, a new large data-set of seismic information classified on the basis of selected seismological, geotechnical and structural parameters is presented and analyzed. Particular attention is devoted to continuous pipelines under strong ground shaking, which is the geotechnical effect due to passage of waves in soil. Results are provided in terms of the likelihood of the loss of containment with respect to Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), a seismic intensity parameter which may be easily retrieved either from local authorities and public databases or from site dependent hazard analysis. Fragility functions and seismic intensity threshold values for the failure and for the loss of containment of gas from pipeline systems are also given. The obtained functions can be easily implemented in existing codes and guidelines for industrial risk assessment, land-use planning, and for the design of public distribution network, with specific reference to Natural—Technological interaction (Na-Tech). -- Highlights: • The seismic vulnerability of natural gas pipelines is analyzed. • A collection of data for pipelines damaged by earthquake is given. • Damage states and risk states for pipelines are defined. • Consequence-based fragility formulations for the loss of containment are given • Seismic threshold values for public authority, risk assessment and gas distribution are shown

  5. 75 FR 13342 - Pipeline Safety: Workshop on Distribution Pipeline Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket ID... natural gas distribution construction. Natural gas distribution pipelines are subject to a unique subset... distribution pipeline construction practices. This workshop will focus solely on natural gas distribution...

  6. Methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudiz, A.; Brenot, J.; Cessac, B.; Charbonneau, P.; Maigne, J.P.; Santucci, P.

    2000-01-01

    At the request of the French ministries of health and environment, IPSN was asked to elaborate a methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides. This guide is devoted to local administration, technical organisms and more generally to all the relevant stakeholders involved with the choice of a rehabilitation strategy, according to the future use of the site. The methodology to be presented is designed to fit with the different types of 'risk governance', according to circumstances: - when an industrial site is relatively small, with rather restricted zones of contamination, and no specific social concern, management may rely essentially upon radiological expertise, using generic reference levels, - when the site is larger, with spread out contamination, risk assessment and management of the site may become more controversial, namely because uncertainties remain about the effective magnitude of the contamination and no low cost solution appears to exist in view of rehabilitation. In this case, an open procedure is required, which combines technical expertise and involvement of stakeholders, in view of improving the risk assessment process as well as trying to get a better understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of different rehabilitation strategies. The methodology consists of six main steps : - Initiating the process, Pre-diagnosis, Initial diagnosis, Simplified risk assessment, Detailed risk assessment, Decision aiding in view of letting the stakeholders defining the solution appropriate to the local context. The paper will present how the risk assessment and management process can be aportionated to the importance of the problem to be solved. As far as possible, simplified risk assessment should provide information allowing the definition of the appropriate strategy. In this case, stakeholders involvement is mainly devoted to determine: - whether the site can be affected to a given use without

  7. Pipelines and salmon in northern British Columbia : potential impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levy, D.A.

    2009-10-01

    Four pipeline projects have been proposed for northern British Columbia that could threaten the health of the Fraser, Skeena, and Kitimat watersheds. The pipelines will expose salmon to risks on several fronts. Enbridge's Northern Gateway pipeline project has generated the most concern for a several reasons, including the risks to salmon and freshwater habitat from pipeline failures, notably leaks or ruptures. This paper reviewed the salmon resources in affected watersheds; salmon and BC's economy; salmon diversity and abundance; impacts on fish from pipeline construction, operations and failures; behaviours of different petroleum products in fresh water; hydrocarbon toxicity; history of pipeline failures; sabotage and natural disasters; and Canadian case studies. Salmon are already experiencing stresses from forestry, hydro-electricity, transportation, agriculture, mining, mountain pine beetle, climate change and coalbed methane development. Their cumulative impact will dictate the long-term health and viability of salmon. It was concluded that if all of the proposed pipelines were built, they would extend over 4,000 km, crossing more than 1,000 rivers and streams in some of Canada's most productive salmon habitat. During construction, pipeline stream crossings are vulnerable to increased sedimentation, which can degrade salmon habitat. In the event of a spill, the condensate and oil sands products carried in the pipelines are highly toxic to salmon, with serious and lasting adverse impacts on salmon and their habitat. Any decision to approve such a pipeline should be made in recognition of these risks. 73 refs., 5 tabs., 15 figs., 2 appendices.

  8. GRAVITY PIPELINE TRANSPORT FOR HARDENING FILLING MIXTURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonid KROUPNIK

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In underground mining of solid minerals becoming increasingly common development system with stowing hardening mixtures. In this case the natural ore array after it is replaced by an artificial excavation of solidified filling mixture consisting of binder, aggregates and water. Such a mixture is prepared on the surface on special stowing complexes and transported underground at special stowing pipelines. However, it is transported to the horizons of a few kilometers, which requires a sustainable mode of motion of such a mixture in the pipeline. Hardening stowing mixture changes its rheological characteristics over time, which complicates the calculation of the parameters of pipeline transportation. The article suggests a method of determining the initial parameters of such mixtures: the status coefficient, indicator of transportability, coefficient of hydrodynamic resistance to motion of the mixture. These indicators characterize the mixture in terms of the possibility to transport it through pipes. On the basis of these indicators is proposed methodology for calculating the parameters of pipeline transport hardening filling mixtures in drift mode when traffic on the horizontal part of the mixture under pressure column of the mixture in the vertical part of the backfill of the pipeline. This technique allows stable operation is guaranteed to provide pipeline transportation.

  9. A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

    2018-01-01

    One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

  10. Radiological risk assessment for the public under the loss of medium and large sources using bayesian methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Jang, Han Ki; Lee, Jai Ki

    2005-01-01

    Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5% Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative for risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety

  11. Validation of pig operations through pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tolmasquim, Sueli Tiomno [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Nieckele, Angela O. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica

    2005-07-01

    In the oil industry, pigging operations in pipelines have been largely applied for different purposes: pipe cleaning, inspection, liquid removal and product separation, among others. An efficient and safe pigging operation requires that a number of operational parameters, such as maximum and minimum pressures in the pipeline and pig velocity, to be well evaluated during the planning stage and maintained within stipulated limits while the operation is accomplished. With the objective of providing an efficient tool to assist in the control and design of pig operations through pipelines, a numerical code was developed, based on a finite difference scheme, which allows the simulation of two fluid transient flow, like liquid-liquid, gas-gas or liquid-gas products in the pipeline. Modules to automatically control process variables were included to employ different strategies to reach an efficient operation. Different test cases were investigated, to corroborate the robustness of the methodology. To validate the methodology, the results obtained with the code were compared with a real liquid displacement operation of a section of the OSPAR oil pipeline, belonging to PETROBRAS, with 30'' diameter and 60 km length, presenting good agreement. (author)

  12. Assessment of hydrogen risk using advanced methodology for lumped parameter code-MELCOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duspiva, Jiri; Kujal, Bohumir

    2007-01-01

    The hydrogen risk is one of the most important containment integrity challenge during a severe accident progression at the VVER type reactors installed at the Czech NPPs. On the basis of recent comprehensive research results the general flame acceleration (FA) and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) criteria were formulated. The main objective of the new methodology developed in the NRI Rez was to prepare an analytical tool for the assessment of the hydrogen risk at the Czech NPPs in the course of a severe accident and also for the design of hydrogen removal system which should be able to prevent or at least minimize the threats of hydrogen detonation in containments. The major idea on which the development of models for the FA and DDT criteria was based is described in OECD state-of-art report (NEA, 2000). The module for the computation of FA criterion (often named σ-criterion) and DDT one (also named λ or Dorofeev criterion) was linked to the MELCOR 1.8.5 model of VVER-1000 containment. The most important feature of new model is that it makes possible to evaluate the both of the criteria for all compartments in the containment continuously during severe accident scenario progression. The containment model, which could be used for such a calculation, has to be very detailed owing to appropriate description of hydrogen distribution. New model was tested by calculation of hydrogen detonation risk in the VVER-1000 containment during severe accident scenario initiated by medium break LOCA. At present two more VVER-1000 severe accident scenarios have been analyzed. The mapping of a hydrogen detonation risk in individual compartments inside containment was performed. The results of analysis confirm that the risk of hydrogen detonation in the great majority of containment compartments during severe accidents is very high if the hydrogen removal system is not installed. (author)

  13. Psychometric evaluation of the Moral Distress Risk Scale: A methodological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Rafaela; Zoboli, Elma Lcp; Vieira, Margarida M

    2017-01-01

    Moral distress is a kind of suffering that nurses may experience when they act in ways that are considered inconsistent with moral values, leading to a perceived compromise of moral integrity. Consequences are mostly negative and include physical and psychological symptoms, in addition to organizational implications. To psychometrically test the Moral Distress Risk Scale. A methodological study was realized. Data were submitted to exploratory factorial analysis through the SPSS statistical program. Participants and research context: In total, 268 nurses from hospitals and primary healthcare settings participated in this research during the period of March to June of 2016. Ethical considerations: This research has ethics committee approval. The Moral Distress Risk Scale is composed of 7 factors and 30 items; it shows evidence of acceptable reliability and validity with a Cronbach's α = 0.913, a total variance explained of 59%, a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin = 0.896, and a significant Bartlett <0.001. Concerns about moral distress should be beyond acute care settings, and a tool to help clarify critical points in other healthcare contexts may add value to moral distress speech. Psychometric results reveal that the Moral Distress Risk Scale can be applied in different healthcare contexts.

  14. Pursuit of new methodology on risk communication - Research assistance program by open application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konoa, N.; Takeshima, K.

    2004-01-01

    In the latter half of 1990s a series of incidents occurred in Japan such as MOX fuel inspection data falsification, Monju fast breeder reactor sodium leakage accident, Tokai nuclear fuel plant (JCO) criticality accident and so on. It is thought that existing measures based on nuclear technology are not well cope with those incidents and another countermeasure utilizing new methodology of cultural and social sciences was keenly felt by both administration agencies and nuclear industries. Above all, the technique such as risk communication to inform the influence of trouble correctly and convincingly to the residents and mass media and to prevent the harm due to rumor is obviously inevitable. Based on these circumstances, Japanese NISA (The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency) initiated in 2002FY new project by open application in the field of cultural and social sciences, and risk communication was one of the principal subject of study. Up to now, 6 risk communication studies are currently in progress. The project was taken over from NISA to JNES (Incorporated Administrative Agency Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization) since 2004FY. This paper shows the overall structure of the project and the outline of the running studies. (author)

  15. Risk assessment methodology for extreme wind and missile effects on critical facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twisdale, L.A.; Dunn, W.L.

    1985-01-01

    The TORMIS methodology has been applied to a number of probabilistic risk assessments of critical facilities in the continental United States. These analyses have centered on the estimation of tornado missile impact and damage risks to individual targets as well as to groups of targets at specific plants. A number of advancements and generalizations in the approach have recently been made. These include: (1) generalization of windfield options to include straight winds (WINMIS) and hurricanes (HURMIS); (2) generalization of the scoring to enable analysis of Boolean system expressions for damage probabilities on compound series and parallel safety trains; (3) generalization of the failure criteria to include wind pressure as well as missile impact; (4) generalization of the plant modeling capability to enable more detailed treatment of targets partially or fully enclosed by vulnerable cladding and to allow tracking of missiles inside such enclosures; and (5) incorporation of windspeed criteria for structural failure and subsequent production of potential missiles. This paper will present some of the basic theory and key results of recent TORMIS, WINMIS, and HURMIS applications. The influence of uncertainties in the estimation process and the data needed for plant-specific risk assessments will also be discussed

  16. [Identification of circulatory diseases and their risk during medical examination of an adult population: methodological aspects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinina, A M; Ipatov, P V; Kaminskaya, A K; Kushunina, D V

    2015-01-01

    To study the efficiency of a methodology for the active detection of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) during medical examination and to determine the need and possible ways of its improvement. The medical examinations of 19.4 million people (94.6% of all the citizens who had undergone medical examinations in all the regions of Russia in 2013) were analyzed and the methodological aspects of identification of the circulatory diseases (CDs) that were induced by coronary and cerebral vessel atherosclerosis and had common risk factors, primarily CHD and CVD, were assessed. The medical examinations revealed 2,915,445 cases of CDs and their suspicions, during which its clinical diagnosis was established in 57.2%. The suspected disease requiring that its diagnosis should be further specified; off-medical examinations revealed hypertension in more than 770,000 cases, CHD in 232,000, and CVD in 146,000. The proportion of stable angina pectoris of all angina cases was much higher at a young age (25.6%) than at middle (15.6%) and elderly (11.3%) ages. Brachiocephalic artery stenoses were detected in almost 13,000 cases. According to the official health statistics, within the years preceding the introduction of large-scale medical examinations, there was a slight rise in new CD cases among the adult population of Russia, which was more significant in 2013 (according to the preliminary data) than in 2012. The methodology for the active detection of CDs through a two-step medical examination, which is used during a follow-up, makes it possible to substantially increase detection rates for CDs. There has been shown to be a need for the better quality and completeness of diagnostic examination in real practice.

  17. Development of Risk Assessment Methodology for State's Nuclear Security Regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Lee, Jung Ho; Kwak, Sung Woo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Threats of nuclear terrorism are increasing after 9/11 terrorist attack. Treats include nuclear explosive device (NED) made by terrorist groups, radiological damage caused by a sabotage aiming nuclear facilities, and radiological dispersion device (RDD), which is also called 'dirty bomb'. In 9/11, Al Qaeda planed to cause radiological consequences by the crash of a nuclear power plant and the captured airplane. The evidence of a dirty bomb experiment was found in Afganistan by the UK intelligence agency. Thus, the international communities including the IAEA work substantial efforts. The leaders of 47 nations attended the 2010 nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama, while the next global nuclear summit will be held in Seoul, 2012. Most states established and are maintaining state's nuclear security regime because of the increasing threat and the international obligations. However, each state's nuclear security regime is different and depends on the state's environment. The methodology for the assessment of state's nuclear security regime is necessary to design and implement an efficient nuclear security regime, and to figure out weak points. The IAEA's INPRO project suggests a checklist method for State's nuclear security regime. The IAEA is now researching more quantitative methods cooperatively with several countries including Korea. In this abstract, methodologies to evaluate state's nuclear security regime by risk assessment are addressed

  18. Overview on hydrogen risk research and development activities: Methodology and open issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bentaib, Ahmed; Meynet, Nicolas; Bleyer, Alexande [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Severe Accident Department, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2015-02-15

    During the course of a severe accident in a light water nuclear reactor, large amounts of hydrogen can be generated and released into the containment during reactor core degradation. Additional burnable gases [hydrogen (H2) and carbon monoxide (CO)] may be released into the containment in the corium/concrete interaction. This could subsequently raise a combustion hazard. As the Fukushima accidents revealed, hydrogen combustion can cause high pressure spikes that could challenge the reactor buildings and lead to failure of the surrounding buildings. To prevent the gas explosion hazard, most mitigation strategies adopted by European countries are based on the implementation of passive autocatalytic recombiners (PARs). Studies of representative accident sequences indicate that, despite the installation of PARs, it is difficult to prevent at all times and locations, the formation of a combustible mixture that potentially leads to local flame acceleration. Complementary research and development (R and D) projects were recently launched to understand better the phenomena associated with the combustion hazard and to address the issues highlighted after the Fukushima Daiichi events such as explosion hazard in the venting system and the potential flammable mixture migration into spaces beyond the primary containment. The expected results will be used to improve the modeling tools and methodology for hydrogen risk assessment and severe accident management guidelines. The present paper aims to present the methodology adopted by Institut de Radioprotection et de Su.

  19. Diablo Canyon internal events PRA [Probabilistic Risk Assessment] review: Methodology and findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bozoki, G.; Sabek, M.

    1990-01-01

    The review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCRPA) incorporated some new and innovative approaches. These were necessitated by the unprecedented size, scope and level of detail of the DCRPA, which was submitted to the NRC for licensing purposes. This paper outlines the elements of the internal events portion of the review citing selected findings to illustrate the various approaches employed. The paper also provides a description of the extensive and comprehensive importance analysis applied by BNL to the DCRPA model. Importance calculations included: top event/function level; individual split fractions; pair importances between frontline-support and support-support systems; system importance by initiator; and others. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the effectiveness of the applied methodology. 3 refs., 5 tabs

  20. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: model description and user manual for Pathways model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Kaestner, P.C.

    1981-03-01

    A model for the environmental movement and human uptake of radionuclides is presented. This model is designated the Pathways-to-Man Model and was developed as part of a project funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to design a methodology to assess the risk associated with the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The Pathways-to-Man Model is divided into two submodels. One of these, the Environmental Transport Model, represents the long-term distribution and accumulation of radionuclides in the environment. This model is based on a mixed-cell approach and describes radionuclide movement with a system of linear differential equations. The other, the Transport-to-Man Model, represents the movement of radionuclides from the environment to man. This model is based on concentration ratios. General descriptions of these models are provided in this report. Further, documentation is provided for the computer program which implements the Pathways Model

  1. Use of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) methodology in health-physics program appraisals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essig, T.H.; Gilchrist, R.L.

    1981-06-01

    In January 1980, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) assumed a major role in helping the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) conduct comprehensive health physics appraisals at 47 operating nuclear power plants. These appraisals required the development of an analytical technique that permitted a deductive analysis of a health-physics program on an element-by-element basis. The technique employed was a modification of the Management Oversight and risk Tree (MORT) analytical logic methodology used in probabilistic assessments. This paper includes the method used in establishing the appraisal guidelines and assigning the proper level of importance within the analytical tree structure. The system for ensuring the proper subdivision necessary for an adequate assessment of each area (e.g., exposure controls and radioactive waste management) will also be discussed. In addition to these major subjects, the generation of specific review questions that correspond to the analytical trees is addressed

  2. Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamano, Hidemasa, E-mail: yamano.hidemasa@jaea.go.jp; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10{sup −6}/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

  3. Development of probabilistic risk assessment methodology against extreme snow for sodium-cooled fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Snow PRA methodology was developed. • Snow hazard category was defined as the combination of daily snowfall depth (speed) and snowfall duration. • Failure probability models of snow removal action, manual operation of the air cooler dampers and the access route were developed. • Snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. - Abstract: This paper describes snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development through external hazard and event sequence evaluations mainly in terms of decay heat removal (DHR) function of a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Using recent 50-year weather data at a typical Japanese SFR site, snow hazard categories were set for the combination of daily snowfall depth (snowfall speed) and snowfall duration which can be calculated by dividing the snow depth by the snowfall speed. For each snow hazard category, the event sequence was evaluated by event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of DHR. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event trees as accident managements. Access route failure probability model was also developed for the quantification of the event tree. In this paper, the snow PRA showed less than 10"−"6/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1–2 m/day of snowfall speed and 0.5–0.75 day of snowfall duration. Importance and sensitivity analyses indicated a high risk contribution of the securing of the access routes.

  4. Slurry pipeline design approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Betinol, Roy; Navarro R, Luis [Brass Chile S.A., Santiago (Chile)

    2009-12-19

    Compared to other engineering technologies, the design of a commercial long distance Slurry Pipeline design is a relatively new engineering concept which gained more recognition in the mid 1960 's. Slurry pipeline was first introduced to reduce cost in transporting coal to power generating units. Since then this technology has caught-up worldwide to transport other minerals such as limestone, copper, zinc and iron. In South America, the use of pipeline is commonly practiced in the transport of Copper (Chile, Peru and Argentina), Iron (Chile and Brazil), Zinc (Peru) and Bauxite (Brazil). As more mining operations expand and new mine facilities are opened, the design of the long distance slurry pipeline will continuously present a commercially viable option. The intent of this paper is to present the design process and discuss any new techniques and approach used today to ensure a better, safer and economical slurry pipeline. (author)

  5. Methodology of using CFD-based risk assessment in road tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidmar Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the deterministic approach in the safety analyses comes from the need to understand the conditions that come out during the fire accident in a road tunnel. The key factor of the tunnel operations during the fire is the ventilation, which during the initial fazes of the fire, impact strongly on the evacuation of people and latter on the access of the intervention units in the tunnel. The paper presents the use of the computational fluid dynamics model in the tunnel safety assessment process. The model is validated by comparing data with experimental and quantifying the differences. The set-up of the initial and boundary conditions and the requirement for grid density found during the validation tests is used to prepare three kind of fire scenarios 20 MW, 50 MW, and 100 MW, with different ventilation conditions; natural, semi transverse, full transverse, and longitudinal ventilation. The observed variables, soot density and temperature, are presented in minutes time steps trough the entire tunnel length. Comparing the obtained data in a table, allows the analyses of the ventilation conditions for different heat releases from fires. The second step is to add additional criteria of human behaviour inside the tunnel (evacuation and human resistance to the elevated gas concentrations and temperature. What comes out is a fully deterministic risk matrix that is based on the calculated data where the risk is ranged on five levels, from the lowest to a very danger level. The deterministic risk matrix represents the alternative to a probabilistic safety assessment methodology, where the fire risk is represented in detail as well as the computational fluid dynamics model results are physically correct. .

  6. Ethnozoology in Brazil: analysis of the methodological risks in published studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Lyra-Neves

    Full Text Available Abstract There has been a growth in the field of Ethnozoology throughout the years, especially in Brazil, where a considerable number of scientific articles pertaining to this subject has been published in recent decades. With this increase in publications comes the opportunity to assess the quality of these publications, as there are no known studies assessing the methodological risks in this area. Based on this observation, our objectives were to compile the papers published on the subject of ethnozoology and to answer the following questions: 1 Do the Brazilian ethnozoological studies use sound sampling methods?; 2 Is the sampling quality influenced by characteristics of the studies/publications? The studies found in databases and using web search engines were compiled to answer these questions. The studies were assessed based on their nature, sampling methods, use of hypotheses and tests, journal’s impact factor, and animal group studied. The majority of the studies analyzed exhibited problems associated with the samples, as 144 (66.98% studies were classified as having a high risk of bias. With regard to the characteristics analyzed, we determined that a quantitative nature and the use of tests are essential components of good sampling. Most studies classified as moderate and low risk either did not provide these data or provided data that were not clear; therefore, these studies were classified as being of a quali-quantitative nature. Studies performed with vertebrate groups were of high risk. Most of the papers analyzed here focused on fish, insects, and/or mollusks, thus highlighting the difficulties associated with conducting interviews regarding tetrapod vertebrates. Such difficulties are largely related to the extremely strict Brazilian laws, justified by the decline and extinction of some species, related to the use of wild tetrapod vertebrates.

  7. Scalability of a Methodology for Generating Technical Trading Rules with GAPs Based on Risk-Return Adjustment and Incremental Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    de La Cal, E. A.; Fernández, E. M.; Quiroga, R.; Villar, J. R.; Sedano, J.

    In previous works a methodology was defined, based on the design of a genetic algorithm GAP and an incremental training technique adapted to the learning of series of stock market values. The GAP technique consists in a fusion of GP and GA. The GAP algorithm implements the automatic search for crisp trading rules taking as objectives of the training both the optimization of the return obtained and the minimization of the assumed risk. Applying the proposed methodology, rules have been obtained for a period of eight years of the S&P500 index. The achieved adjustment of the relation return-risk has generated rules with returns very superior in the testing period to those obtained applying habitual methodologies and even clearly superior to Buy&Hold. This work probes that the proposed methodology is valid for different assets in a different market than previous work.

  8. 78 FR 70623 - Pipeline Safety: Meeting of the Gas Pipeline Advisory Committee and the Liquid Pipeline Advisory...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No. PHMSA-2009-0203] Pipeline Safety: Meeting of the Gas Pipeline Advisory Committee and the Liquid Pipeline Advisory Committee AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), DOT. [[Page...

  9. Dynamics stresses in pipelines and components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prates, C.L.M.; Stukart, R.N.L.; Halbritter, A.L.

    1982-01-01

    The procedure to generate the dynamic stresses caused by external events, necessary for the structural calculation of pipelines and components in nuclear power plants is presented. A special attention is given to the stress caused by the action of earthquakes and exterior explosions. In the dynamic analysis of pipeline and components is usually to show the stresses procedured by these events under the response spectra form. The methodology to obtain these response spectra is shown and discussed. Some pratical examples of spectra from nuclear power plant building are still shown. (E.G.) [pt

  10. Abstract analysis method facilitates filtering low-methodological quality and high-bias risk systematic reviews on psoriasis interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-García, Francisco; Ruano, Juan; Aguilar-Luque, Macarena; Alcalde-Mellado, Patricia; Gay-Mimbrera, Jesús; Hernández-Romero, José Luis; Sanz-Cabanillas, Juan Luis; Maestre-López, Beatriz; González-Padilla, Marcelino; Carmona-Fernández, Pedro J; García-Nieto, Antonio Vélez; Isla-Tejera, Beatriz

    2017-12-29

    Article summaries' information and structure may influence researchers/clinicians' decisions to conduct deeper full-text analyses. Specifically, abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MA) should provide structured summaries for quick assessment. This study explored a method for determining the methodological quality and bias risk of full-text reviews using abstract information alone. Systematic literature searches for SRs and/or MA about psoriasis were undertaken on MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane database. For each review, quality, abstract-reporting completeness, full-text methodological quality, and bias risk were evaluated using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses for abstracts (PRISMA-A), Assessing the Methodological Quality of Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR), and ROBIS tools, respectively. Article-, author-, and journal-derived metadata were systematically extracted from eligible studies using a piloted template, and explanatory variables concerning abstract-reporting quality were assessed using univariate and multivariate-regression models. Two classification models concerning SRs' methodological quality and bias risk were developed based on per-item and total PRISMA-A scores and decision-tree algorithms. This work was supported, in part, by project ICI1400136 (JR). No funding was received from any pharmaceutical company. This study analysed 139 SRs on psoriasis interventions. On average, they featured 56.7% of PRISMA-A items. The mean total PRISMA-A score was significantly higher for high-methodological-quality SRs than for moderate- and low-methodological-quality reviews. SRs with low-bias risk showed higher total PRISMA-A values than reviews with high-bias risk. In the final model, only 'authors per review > 6' (OR: 1.098; 95%CI: 1.012-1.194), 'academic source of funding' (OR: 3.630; 95%CI: 1.788-7.542), and 'PRISMA-endorsed journal' (OR: 4.370; 95%CI: 1.785-10.98) predicted PRISMA-A variability. Reviews with a

  11. Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale

    OpenAIRE

    Valcarcel, Jairo A.; Mora, Miguel G.; Cardona, Omar D.; Pujades, Lluis G.; Barbat, Alex H.; Bernal, Gabriel A.

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a methodology for an estimate of the benefit cost ratio of the seismic risk reduction in buildings portfolio at broadscale, for a world region, allowing comparing the results obtained for the countries belonging to that region. This methodology encompasses (1) the generation of a set of random seismic events and the evaluation of the spectral accelerations at the buildings location; (2) the estimation of the buildings built area, the economic value, as well as the cla...

  12. System reliability of corroding pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Wenxing

    2010-01-01

    A methodology is presented in this paper to evaluate the time-dependent system reliability of a pipeline segment that contains multiple active corrosion defects and is subjected to stochastic internal pressure loading. The pipeline segment is modeled as a series system with three distinctive failure modes due to corrosion, namely small leak, large leak and rupture. The internal pressure is characterized as a simple discrete stochastic process that consists of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables each acting over a period of one year. The magnitude of a given sequence follows the annual maximum pressure distribution. The methodology is illustrated through a hypothetical example. Furthermore, the impact of the spatial variability of the pressure loading and pipe resistances associated with different defects on the system reliability is investigated. The analysis results suggest that the spatial variability of pipe properties has a negligible impact on the system reliability. On the other hand, the spatial variability of the internal pressure, initial defect sizes and defect growth rates can have a significant impact on the system reliability.

  13. A RISK BASED METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS IN TRADITIONALLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Herrera

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to achieve the CO2 reduction targets set by the Scottish government, it will be necessary to improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings. Within the total Scottish building stock, historic and traditionally constructed buildings are an important proportion, in the order of 19 % (Curtis, 2010, and represent cultural, emotional and identity values that should be protected. However, retrofit interventions could be a complex operation because of the several aspects that are involved in the hygrothermal performance of traditional buildings. Moreover, all these factors interact with each other and therefore need to be analysed as a whole. Upgrading the envelope of traditional buildings may produce severe changes to the moisture migration leading to superficial or interstitial condensation and thus fabric decay and mould growth. Retrofit projects carried out in the past have failed because of the misunderstanding, or the lack of expert prediction, of the potential consequences associated to the envelope's alteration. The evaluation of potential risks, prior to any alteration on building's physics in order to improve its energy efficiency, is critical to avoid future damage on the wall's performance or occupants' health and well being. The aim of this PhD research project is to point out the most critical aspects related to the energy efficiency improvement of traditional buildings and to develop a risk based methodology that helps owners and practitioners during the decision making process.

  14. Human error risk management for engineering systems: a methodology for design, safety assessment, accident investigation and training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacciabue, P.C.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to tackle methodological issues associated with the inclusion of cognitive and dynamic considerations into Human Reliability methods. A methodology called Human Error Risk Management for Engineering Systems is presented that offers a 'roadmap' for selecting and consistently applying Human Factors approaches in different areas of application and contains also a 'body' of possible methods and techniques of its own. Two types of possible application are discussed to demonstrate practical applications of the methodology. Specific attention is dedicated to the issue of data collection and definition from specific field assessment

  15. Public perceptions of CO2 transportation in pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gough, Clair; O'Keefe, Laura; Mander, Sarah

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the response by members of the lay public to the prospect of an onshore CO 2 pipeline through their locality as part of a proposed CCS development and presents results from deliberative Focus Groups held along a proposed pipeline route. Although there is a reasonable level of general knowledge about CO 2 across the lay public, understanding of its specific properties is more limited. The main concerns expressed around pipelines focused on five areas: (i) safe operation of the pipeline; (ii) the risks to people, livestock and vegetation arising from the leakage of CO 2 from the pipeline; (iii) the innovative and ‘first of its kind' nature of the pipeline and the consequent lack of operational CO 2 pipelines in the UK to demonstrate the technology; (iv) impacts on coastal erosion at the landfall site; and (v) the potential disruption to local communities during pipeline construction. Participants expressed scepticism over the motivations of CO 2 pipeline developers. Trust that the developer will minimise risk during the route selection and subsequent construction, operation and maintenance of the pipeline is key; building trust within the local community requires early engagement processes, tailored to deliver a variety of engagement and information approaches. - Highlights: • Lay publics express good general knowledge of CO 2 but not of its specific properties. • Key concerns relate to risk and safety and ‘first of a kind' nature of CO 2 pipeline. • Group participants are sceptical about motivations of CO 2 pipeline developers. • Communities' trust in developer is a major element of their risk assessment

  16. Leak detection systems as a central component of pipeline safety concepts; Leckueberwachungssysteme als zentrale Bestandteile von Pipeline-Sicherheitskonzepten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, Daniel [KROHNE Oil and Gas B.V., Breda (Netherlands)

    2013-03-15

    The transport of materials in pipelines is continuously increasing worldwide. Pipelines are one of the most economic and safe transport systems in all directions. In order to ensure this, not only new pipelines but also existing pipelines have to be kept up to date technically. Leakages are a possible safety risk. Leaks are manifold and range from earth quakes, corrosion or material fatigue up to open-up by drilling by thieves. A specific leakage detection often is used in order to limit the risks. The minimization of the consequences of accidents, downtimes and product losses as well as regulatory procedures is the reason for the detection of leakages. Leaks in pipelines can be detected on different kinds - from a simple visual inspection during the inspection up to computer-assisted systems monitoring certain states also in underground and submarine pipeline.

  17. A methodology for spacecraft technology insertion analysis balancing benefit, cost, and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearden, David Allen

    Emerging technologies are changing the way space missions are developed and implemented. Technology development programs are proceeding with the goal of enhancing spacecraft performance and reducing mass and cost. However, it is often the case that technology insertion assessment activities, in the interest of maximizing performance and/or mass reduction, do not consider synergistic system-level effects. Furthermore, even though technical risks are often identified as a large cost and schedule driver, many design processes ignore effects of cost and schedule uncertainty. This research is based on the hypothesis that technology selection is a problem of balancing interrelated (and potentially competing) objectives. Current spacecraft technology selection approaches are summarized, and a Methodology for Evaluating and Ranking Insertion of Technology (MERIT) that expands on these practices to attack otherwise unsolved problems is demonstrated. MERIT combines the modern techniques of technology maturity measures, parametric models, genetic algorithms, and risk assessment (cost and schedule) in a unique manner to resolve very difficult issues including: user-generated uncertainty, relationships between cost/schedule and complexity, and technology "portfolio" management. While the methodology is sufficiently generic that it may in theory be applied to a number of technology insertion problems, this research focuses on application to the specific case of small (<500 kg) satellite design. Small satellite missions are of particular interest because they are often developed under rigid programmatic (cost and schedule) constraints and are motivated to introduce advanced technologies into the design. MERIT is demonstrated for programs procured under varying conditions and constraints such as stringent performance goals, not-to-exceed costs, or hard schedule requirements. MERIT'S contributions to the engineering community are its: unique coupling of the aspects of performance

  18. Development of a methodology for post closure radiological risk analysis of underground waste repositories. Illustrative assessment of the Harwell site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gralewski, Z.A.; Kane, P.; Nicholls, D.B.

    1987-06-01

    A probabilistic risk analysis (pra) is demonstrated for a number of ground water mediated release scenarios at the Harwell Site for a hypothetical repository at a depth of about 150 metres. This is the second stage of development of an overall risk assessment methodology. A procedure for carrying out multi-scenario assessment using available probabilistic risk assessment (pra) models is presented and a general methodology for combining risk contributions is outlined. Appropriate levels of model complexity in pra are discussed. Modelling requirements for the treatment of multiple simultaneous pathways and of site evolution are outlined. Further developments of pra systems are required to increase the realism of both the models and their mode of application, and hence to improve estimates of risk. (author)

  19. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  20. 76 FR 53086 - Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-25

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR Part 192 [Docket No. PHMSA-2011-0023] RIN 2137-AE72 Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), Department of Transportation (DOT...

  1. 76 FR 70953 - Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR Part 192 [Docket ID PHMSA-2011-0023] RIN 2137-AE72 Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA); DOT. ACTION: Advance notice of...

  2. Pipeline Drag Reducers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marawan, H.

    2004-01-01

    Pipeline drag reducers have proven to be an extremely powerful tool in fluid transportation. High molecular weight polymers are used to reduce the frictional pressure loss ratio in crude oil pipelines, refined fuel and aqueous pipelines. Chemical structure of the main used pipeline drag reducers is one of the following polymers and copolymers classified according to the type of fluid to ; low density polyethylene, copolymer of I-hexane cross linked with divinyl benzene, polyacrylamide, polyalkylene oxide polymers and their copolymers, fluorocarbons, polyalkyl methacrylates and terpolymer of styrene, alkyl acrylate and acrylic acid. Drag reduction is the increase in pump ability of a fluid caused by the addition of small amounts of an additive to the fluid. The effectiveness of a drag reducer is normally expressed in terms of percent drag reduction. Frictional pressure loss in a pipeline system is a waste of energy and it costly. The drag reducing additive minimizes the flow turbulence, increases throughput and reduces the energy costs. The Flow can be increased by more than 80 % with existing assets. The effectiveness of the injected drag reducer in Mostorod to Tanta crude oil pipeline achieved 35.4 % drag reduction and 23.2 % flow increase of the actual performance The experimental application of DRA on Arab Petroleum Pipeline Company (Summed) achieved a flow increase ranging from 9-32 %

  3. Pollution from pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    During the 1980s, over 3,900 spills from land-based pipelines released nearly 20 million gallons of oil into U.S. waters-almost twice as much as was released by the March 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Although the Department of Transportation is responsible for preventing water pollution from petroleum pipelines, GAO found that it has not established a program to prevent such pollution. DOT has instead delegated this responsibility to the Coast Guard, which has a program to stop water pollution from ships, but not from pipelines. This paper reports that, in the absence of any federal program to prevent water pollution from pipelines, both the Coast Guard and the Environmental Protection Agency have taken steps to plan for and respond to oil spills, including those from pipelines, as required by the Clean Water Act. The Coast Guard cannot, however, adequately plan for or ensure a timely response to pipeline spills because it generally is unaware of specific locations and operators of pipelines

  4. Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

    2014-05-01

    Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied.

  6. Research on Methodology to Prioritize Critical Digital Assets based on Nuclear Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Wonjik; Kwon, Kookheui; Kim, Hyundoo

    2016-01-01

    Digital systems are used in nuclear facilities to monitor and control various types of field devices, as well as to obtain and store vital information. Therefore, it is getting important for nuclear facilities to protect digital systems from cyber-attack in terms of safety operation and public health since cyber compromise of these systems could lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. Based on KINAC/RS-015 which is a cyber security regulatory standard, regulatory activities for cyber security at nuclear facilities generally focus on critical digital assets (CDAs) which are safety, security, and emergency preparedness related digital assets. Critical digital assets are estimated over 60% among all digital assets in a nuclear power plant. Therefore, it was required to prioritize critical digital assets to improve efficiency of regulation and implementation. In this paper, the research status on methodology development to prioritize critical digital assets based on nuclear risk assessment will be introduced. In this paper, to derive digital asset directly affect accident, PRA results (ET, FT, and minimal cut set) are analyzed. According to result of analysis, digital systems related to CD are derived ESF-CCS (safety-related component control system) and Process-CCS (non-safety-related component control system) as well as Engineered Safety Features Actuation System (ESFAS). These digital assets can be identified Vital Digital Asset (VDA). Hereafter, to develop general methodology which was identified VDA related to accident among CDAs, (1) method using result of minimal cut set in PRA model will be studied and (2) method quantifying result of Digital I and C PRA which is performed to reflect all digital cabinet related to system in FT will be studied

  7. High temperature pipeline design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenslade, J.G. [Colt Engineering, Calgary, AB (Canada). Pipelines Dept.; Nixon, J.F. [Nixon Geotech Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Dyck, D.W. [Stress Tech Engineering Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    It is impractical to transport bitumen and heavy oil by pipelines at ambient temperature unless diluents are added to reduce the viscosity. A diluted bitumen pipeline is commonly referred to as a dilbit pipeline. The diluent routinely used is natural gas condensate. Since natural gas condensate is limited in supply, it must be recovered and reused at high cost. This paper presented an alternative to the use of diluent to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil or bitumen. The following two basic design issues for a hot bitumen (hotbit) pipeline were presented: (1) modelling the restart problem, and, (2) establishing the maximum practical operating temperature. The transient behaviour during restart of a high temperature pipeline carrying viscous fluids was modelled using the concept of flow capacity. Although the design conditions were hypothetical, they could be encountered in the Athabasca oilsands. It was shown that environmental disturbances occur when the fluid is cooled during shut down because the ground temperature near the pipeline rises. This can change growing conditions, even near deeply buried insulated pipelines. Axial thermal loads also constrain the design and operation of a buried pipeline as higher operating temperatures are considered. As such, strain based design provides the opportunity to design for higher operating temperature than allowable stress based design methods. Expansion loops can partially relieve the thermal stress at a given temperature. As the design temperature increase, there is a point at which above grade pipelines become attractive options, although the materials and welding procedures must be suitable for low temperature service. 3 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  8. Defining indicators to motorize block valves aiming to reduce potential leakage applied to OSBRA pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pires, L.F.G. [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Sousa, A.G.; Castro, N.C.; Spagnolo, R. [Petrobras Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    The discussion about motorizing block valves is a constant point being brought up when it is intended to control or reduce the amount of liquid leaking in the event of a pipe rupture. During the pipeline's project stage the installation of blocking valves along the pipeline must be taken into consideration to meet the operation and maintenance requirements as well as to reduce the potential amounts of volume being leaked. In existing pipelines, the main concern is the definition of which valves are candidates to be motorized. In both situations criteria should be established to define this choice. A math algorithm was developed to define the potential leakage due to gravity along the pipeline profile where the influence of a valve over another is verified, as well as the contribution of the check valves existing in the pipeline. The present work defines a parameter based on the extension protected by the valve and the reduction of the potential leakage. This parameter is then fed to a worksheet where the efficiency indicators are calculated to each valve eligible to be motorized. It also takes into consideration factors relative to the valve location, such as the environmental sensitivity, risk assessment, social diagnosis and device's proximity to contingency resources. Finally, after considering all the above aspects, it's possible to come up with a final classification, recommending specific valves to be prioritized on an eventual process of motorization adequacies. This methodology was applied, experimentally on a pipe segment of TRANSPETRO's Sao Paulo-Brasilia pipeline - OSBRA , where it proved to be an important technological and management tool. (author)

  9. 75 FR 35366 - Pipeline Safety: Applying Safety Regulation to All Rural Onshore Hazardous Liquid Low-Stress Lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-22

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 49 CFR Part... Onshore Hazardous Liquid Low-Stress Lines AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration... to the risks that hazardous liquid and natural gas pipelines pose to the environment. In the Pipeline...

  10. Trouble in the pipeline?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snieckus, Darius

    2002-10-01

    The author provides a commentary on the political, economic, environmental and social problems facing the proposed 3 billion US dollars Baku-Ceyhan-Tbilisi export pipeline. The 1760 km long pipeline has been designed to carry 1 million b/d of crude oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey's Mediterranean coast. The pipeline is being constructed by a BP-led consortium made up of Socar, Statoil, Unocal, TPAO, Eni, Itochu, Amerada Hess, TotalFinaElf and BP. (UK)

  11. Informational database methodology for urban risk analysis.Case study: the historic centre of Bucharest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armas, I.; Dumitrascu, S.

    2009-04-01

    The urban environment often deals with issues concerning the deterioration of the constructed space and the quality of the environmental factors, in general terms meaning an unsatisfactory quality of life. Taking into account the complexity of the urban environment and the strong human impact, this ambience can be considered the ideal place for a varied range of risks to appear, being favoured by the external interventions and the dynamics of the internal changes that occur in the urban system, often unexpectedly. In this context, historic centre areas are even more vulnerable because of the age of the buildings and their socio-cultural value. The present study focuses on the development of a rapid assessment system of urban risks, putting emphasis on earthquakes. The importance of the study is shown by the high vulnerability that defines urban settlements, which can be considered socio-ecological systems characterized by a maximum risk level. In general, cities are highly susceptible areas because of their compactness and elevated degree of land occupancy, the Bucharest municipality being no exception. The street and sewerage networks disorganized the natural system resulted from the evolution of the lake-river system in Superior Pleistocene-Holocene and the intense construction activity represents a pressure that hasn't been measured and that is in need for a methodological interdisciplinary approach. In particular, the specific of Bucharest is given by the seismic risk based on an explosive urban evolution and the advanced state of degradation of the buildings. In this context, the Lipscani sector from the historic centre of the capital city is a maximum seismic vulnerability area, this being the result of its location in the Dâmbovita River meadow, on the brow and 80 m terrace, but more precisely because of the degradation of the buildings that cumulated the effects of the repeated earthquakes. The historic centre of Bucharest has not only a cultural function

  12. Black powder removal in a Mexico gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrow, John R. [TDW Services, Inc., New Castle, DE (United States); Drysdale, Colin; Warterfield, Bob D. [T.D.Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2008-07-01

    This paper focuses on the cleaning methodology and operational constrains involved with the removal of black powder in a high pressure natural gas transmission pipeline. In this case, the accumulation of black powder along the pipeline system over the seven year period since it was put into service was creating significant problems in the areas of maintenance, customer relations, and cost to the pipeline operator due to clogging of filters, reduced gas flow, and penalties as result of non-compliant delivery contracts. The pipeline cleaning project consisted of running cleaning pigs or scrappers with batches of cleaning solution through each section of the pipeline while dealing with such factors as three (3) pipeline section lengths in excess of 160 kms (100 miles), gas flow velocity fluctuations, shutdowns, and gas delivery schedule requirements. The cleaning program for the entire pipeline system included the use of chemical and diesel based cleaning solution, running multiple cleaning pigs, liquid injection and separation system, mobile storage tanks, various equipment and personnel for logistical support. Upon completion of the cleaning program, the level of black powder and other solids in all pipeline sections was reduced to approximately 0.5% liquid/solid ratio and the pipeline system returned to normal optimum operation. (author.

  13. Pipeline for Contraceptive Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blithe, Diana L.

    2016-01-01

    The high rates of unplanned pregnancy reflect unmet need for effective contraceptive methods for women, especially for individuals with health risks such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and other conditions that may contraindicate use of an estrogen-containing product. Improvements in safety, user convenience, acceptability and availability of products remain important goals of the contraceptive development program. Another important goal is to minimize the impact of the products on the environment. Development of new methods for male contraception has the potential to address many of these issues with regard to safety for women who have contraindications to effective contraceptive methods but want to protect against pregnancy. It also will address a huge unmet need for men who want to control their fertility. Products under development for men would not introduce eco-toxic hormones in the waste water. Investment in contraceptive research to identify new products for women has been limited in the pharmaceutical industry relative to investment in drug development for other indications. Pharmaceutical R&D for male contraception was active in the 1990’s but was abandoned over a decade ago. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) has supported a contraceptive development program since 1969. Through a variety of programs including research grants and contracts, NICHD has developed a pipeline of new targets/products for male and female contraception. A number of lead candidates are under evaluation in the NICHD Contraceptive Clinical Trials Network (CCTN) (1–3). PMID:27523300

  14. Methodology for Collision Risk Assessment of an Airspace Flow Corridor Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yimin

    This dissertation presents a methodology to estimate the collision risk associated with a future air-transportation concept called the flow corridor. The flow corridor is a Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept to reduce congestion and increase throughput in en-route airspace. The flow corridor has the potential to increase throughput by reducing the controller workload required to manage aircraft outside the corridor and by reducing separation of aircraft within corridor. The analysis in this dissertation is a starting point for the safety analysis required by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to eventually approve and implement the corridor concept. This dissertation develops a hybrid risk analysis methodology that combines Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic event tree analysis. The analysis captures the unique characteristics of the flow corridor concept, including self-separation within the corridor, lane change maneuvers, speed adjustments, and the automated separation assurance system. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the movement of aircraft in the flow corridor and to identify precursor events that might lead to a collision. Since these precursor events are not rare, standard Monte Carlo simulation can be used to estimate these occurrence rates. Dynamic event trees are then used to model the subsequent series of events that may lead to collision. When two aircraft are on course for a near-mid-air collision (NMAC), the on-board automated separation assurance system provides a series of safety layers to prevent the impending NNAC or collision. Dynamic event trees are used to evaluate the potential failures of these layers in order to estimate the rare-event collision probabilities. The results show that the throughput can be increased by reducing separation to 2 nautical miles while maintaining the current level of safety. A sensitivity analysis shows that the most critical parameters in the model related to the overall

  15. Preventing erosion at pipeline crossings of watercourses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawatsky, L.; Arnold, G.

    1997-01-01

    Watercourses are naturally vulnerable to erosion but the risk is particularly acute after sub-soil and armour materials have been disturbed by trenching and backfilling during construction. Various types of erosion (river scour, river bed, river channel bed and river bank ) and the progressive removal of pipeline cover resulting from erosion were discussed. Methods of estimating the risk of progressive erosion, river avulsions and beaver dam scour, and methods of mitigating erosion at pipeline crossings such as deep burial, proper siting, conventional armouring, and a combination of bank toe protection, and upper bank vegetation cover, were described

  16. Vulnerability maps for Druzba crude oil pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hladik, P.; Hosnedl, P.; Buresova, H.; Corbet, J.

    2012-01-01

    Maps of risk for individual environmental aspects within the protection zone of the Czech part of the Druzba crude oil pipeline (505.7 km) were developed based on a modified 'H and V index' method. Risk data were added into a GIS of the Druzba pipeline so that the system could be used as conceptual material in the field of environmental protection (a base for the new SCADA system). Considered environmental aspects were assessed in terms of their vulnerability. The criteria were defined as the vulnerability of the aquatic environment (surface waters and ground waters), the vulnerability of soil environment and the vulnerability of biotic components of the environment. (authors)

  17. Skaha Lake crossing, innovations in pipeline installation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, M.L.; Bryce, P.W.; Smith, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the construction of a 10.8 km long NPS16 (406 mm, 16 inch diameter) pipeline, across Skaha Lake, in the south Okanagan valley, British Columbia, Canada. The water crossing is part of the 32 km South Okanagan Natural Gas Pipeline Project (SONG) operated by BC Gas. The pipeline is located in a region dependent on year-round tourism. Therefore, the design and construction was influenced by sensitive environmental and land use concerns. From earlier studies, BC Gas identified surface tow or lay as preferred installation methods. The contractor, Fraser River Pile and Dredge departed from a conventional laybarge methodology after evaluating environmental data and assessing locally available equipment. The contractor proposed a surface tow with multiple surface tie-ins. This approach modification to the ''Surface Tow and Buoy Release Method'' (STBRM) used previously with success on relatively short underwater pipelines. A total of 10 pipe strings, up to 1 km long, were towed into position on the lake and tied-in using a floating platform. The joined pipeline was lowered to the lakebed by divers releasing buoys while tension was maintained from a winch barge at the free end of the pipeline. From analysis and field verified measurement the installation stresses were well below the allowable limits during all phases of construction. The entire construction, including mobilization and demobilization, lasted less than three months, and actual pipelaying less than three weeks. Installation was completed within budget and on schedule, without any environmental or safety related incidents. The SONG pipeline became operational in December 1994

  18. Intelligent systems/software engineering methodology - A process to manage cost and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlander, Carl; Lehrer, Nancy

    1991-01-01

    A systems development methodology is discussed that has been successfully applied to the construction of a number of intelligent systems. This methodology is a refinement of both evolutionary and spiral development methodologies. It is appropriate for development of intelligent systems. The application of advanced engineering methodology to the development of software products and intelligent systems is an important step toward supporting the transition of AI technology into aerospace applications. A description of the methodology and the process model from which it derives is given. Associated documents and tools are described which are used to manage the development process and record and report the emerging design.

  19. Chechnya: the pipeline front

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon,

    1999-11-01

    This article examines the impact of the Russian campaign against Chechnya on projects for oil and gas pipelines from the new Caspian republics, which are seeking financial support. Topics discussed include the pipeline transport of oil from Azerbaijan through Chechnya to the Black Sea, the use of oil money to finance the war, the push for non-Russian export routes, the financing of pipelines, the impact of the war on the supply of Russian and Turkmenistan gas to Turkey, the proposed construction of the Trans Caspian pipeline, the weakening of trust between Russia and its neighbours, and the potential for trans Caucasus republics to look to western backers due to the instability of the North Caucasus. (UK)

  20. National Pipeline Mapping System

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The NPMS Public Map Viewer allows the general public to view maps of transmission pipelines, LNG plants, and breakout tanks in one selected county. Distribution and...

  1. The Winfrith effluent pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer, G.H.

    1959-11-01

    The paper describes the preparatory work leading up to the design of the Winfrith pipeline. Details of the existing system are given and some information on the predicted safe levels of radio-active discharge. (author)

  2. Risk methodology for geologic disposal of radioactive waste: asymptotic properties of the environmental transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Brown, J.B.; Iman, R.L.

    1981-02-01

    The Environmental Transport Model is a compartmental model developed to represent the surface movement of radionuclides. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the model and to acquire insight with respect to such behavior and the variables which influence it. For four variations of a hypothetical river receiving a radionuclide discharge, the following properties are considered: predicted asymptotic values for environmental radionuclide concentrations and time required for environmental radionuclide concentrations to reach 90% of their predicted asymptotic values. Independent variables of two types are used to define each variation of the river: variables which define physical properties of the river system (e.g., soil depth, river discharge and sediment resuspension) and variables which summarize radionuclide properties (i.e., distribution coefficients). Sensitivity analysis techniques based on stepwise regression are used to determine the dominant variables influencing the behavior of the model. This work constitutes part of a project at Sandia National Laboratories funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a methodology to assess the risk associated with geologic disposal of radioactive waste

  3. Risk-assessment methodology development for waste isolation in geologic media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevens, C.A.; Fullwood, R.R.; Amirijafari, B.; Basin, S.L.; Cohen, J.

    1982-12-01

    A review of three documents prepared for the USNRC by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is presented. These are NUREG/CR-1634, Volume 4 concerned with the effects of variable hydrology on waste migration; NUREG/CR-2324, a user's manual for SWIFT; and NUREG/2343, a user's manual for DNET. This review completes Task 4 of the detailed technical review of the SNL program for Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Waste Isolation in Geologic Media. In general, these reports exhibit high technical quality that characterizes the SNL work. They are tersely written with little condescension to the non-expert reader for understanding the physical situation being modeled. Indeed, the emphasis is on the mathematical procedures rather than the repository physics, leaving the adequacy of the results presented in many computer plots, pretty much to the interpretation of the reader. Other general comments have been presented previously, such as the data conservatisms, need for data that cannot be measured without disturbing the geometry, and the overall plan for use of the many codes developed in the program

  4. Pipeline river crossing studies; Estudos de travessias de dutos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leal, Marcos de Castro; Stasiak, Luciano; Silva, Alessandra de Barros e [ESTEIO Engenharia e Aerolevantamentos S.A., Curitiba, PR (Brazil)

    2005-07-01

    This work has for objective to guide the execution of study of pipelines crossings under courses of water, channels, flooded areas and reservoirs. The study seeks the minimal risks to the pipelines, be them anthropics, geotechnics, hydraulics or environmental, as in the implantation phase as of operation. It also seeks to determine which is the best constructive method for the crossing in question. (author)

  5. Pipelines in power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oude-Hengel, H.H.

    1978-01-01

    Since the end of the Sixties, steam-transporting pipelines are given great attention, as pipeline components often fail, partially even long before their designed operation time is over. Thus, experts must increasingly deal with questions of pipelines and their components. Design and calculation, production and operation of pipelines are included in the discussion. Within the frame of this discussion, planners, producers, operators, and technical surveillance personnel must be able to offer a homogenous 'plan for assuring the quality of pipelines' in fossil and nuclear power plants. This book tries to make a contribution to this topic. 'Quality assuring' means efforts made for meeting the demands of quality (reliability). The book does not intend to complete with well-known manuals, as for as a complete covering of the topic is concerned. A substantial part of its sections serves to show how quality assurance of pipelines can be at least partially obtained by surveillance measures beginning with the planning, covering the production, and finally accompanying the operation. There is hardly need to mention that the sort of planning, production, and operation has an important influence on the quality. This is why another part of the sections contain process aspects from the view of the planners, producers, and operators. (orig.) [de

  6. Pipelines to eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsason, J.

    1998-01-01

    This presentation focused on four main topics: (1) the existing path of pipelines to eastern Canada, (2) the Chicago hub, (3) transport alternatives, and (4) the Vector Pipeline' expansion plans. In the eastern Canadian market, TransCanada Pipelines dominates 96 per cent of the market share and is effectively immune to expansion costs. Issues regarding the attractiveness of the Chicago hub were addressed. One attractive feature is that the Chicago hub has access to multiple supply basins including western Canada, the Gulf Coast, the mid-continent, and the Rockies. Regarding Vector Pipelines' future plans, the company proposes to construct 343 miles of pipeline from Joliet, Illinois to Dawn, Ontario. Project description included discussion of some of the perceived advantages of this route, namely, extensive storage in Michigan and south-western Ontario, the fact that the proposed pipeline traverses major markets which would mitigate excess capacity concerns, arbitrage opportunities, cost effective expansion capability reducing tolls, and likely lower landed costs in Ontario. Project schedule, costs, rates and tariffs are also discussed. tabs., figs

  7. Hydrogen safety risk assessment methodology applied to a fluidized bed membrane reactor for autothermal reforming of natural gas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Psara, N.; Van Sint Annaland, M.; Gallucci, F.

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this paper is the development and implementation of a safety risk assessment methodology to highlight hazards potentially prevailing during autothermal reforming of natural gas for hydrogen production in a membrane reactor, as well as to reveal potential accidents related to hydrogen

  8. Structural assessment procedure of corroding submarine gas pipelines using on-line inspection data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordin Yahaya

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents 'the alternative approach of overall procedure in the assessment of corroded pipelines using data gathered by the on-line inspection device. The methodology adopts a generalised approach of analysing pipeline inspection data and a prediction of the structural reliability due to the deteriorating corrosion environment. The whole assessment methodology is divided into four separate stages; 1 to IV. Stages 1 and 11 are the initial procedure prior to the actual analysis of the inspection data. The scope of this paper is concerted into the procedure to be taken in Stage 111 where the stage is sub-divided into 3 major steps; Part A, B and C. These procedures are Part A (statistical and probabilistic analysis of the inspection data) and Part B (the application of extreme value statistics) and C (reliability assessment). Stage IV (risk assessment) is the final step in the procedure where the consequences of failure are evaluated. The proposed risk-based assessment procedure is more systematic and reliable to account for a huge amount of collected data usually obtained in an on-line inspection using the intelligent devices. The outcomes of this risk-based methodology can be very useful in the decision-making process by the operation management. This in turn will produce an efficient inspection, repair and maintenance program and enhanced the optimised return in investment. (author)

  9. Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yongsheng; Khan, Faisal; Thodi, Premkumar; Abbassi, Rouzbeh

    2017-01-01

    Pipeline corrosion is one of the main causes of subsea pipeline failure. It is necessary to monitor and analyze pipeline condition to effectively predict likely failure. This paper presents an approach to analyze the observed abnormal events to assess the condition of subsea pipelines. First, it focuses on establishing a systematic corrosion failure model by Bow-Tie (BT) analysis, and subsequently the BT model is mapped into a Bayesian Network (BN) model. The BN model facilitates the modelling of interdependency of identified corrosion causes, as well as the updating of failure probabilities depending on the arrival of new information. Furthermore, an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) has been developed to better structure the network and to provide an efficient updating algorithm. Based on this OOBN model, probability updating and probability adaptation are performed at regular intervals to estimate the failure probabilities due to corrosion and potential consequences. This results in an interval-based condition assessment of subsea pipeline subjected to corrosion. The estimated failure probabilities would help prioritize action to prevent and control failures. Practical application of the developed model is demonstrated using a case study. - Highlights: • A Bow-Tie (BT) based corrosion failure model linking causation with the potential losses. • A novel Object-Oriented Bayesian Network (OOBN) based corrosion failure risk model. • Probability of failure updating and adaptation with respect to time using OOBN model. • Application of the proposed model to develop and test strategies to minimize failure risk.

  10. Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underhill, Kristen

    2013-10-01

    The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, T.H.; Liang, K.S.; Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S.; Patelli, E.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10 −3 . • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10 −5 . - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability of the

  12. Risk-informed analysis of the large break loss of coolant accident and PCT margin evaluation with the RISMC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, T.H. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Liang, K.S., E-mail: ksliang@alum.mit.edu [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Cheng, C.K.; Pei, B.S. [Institute of Nuclear Engineering and Science, National Tsing Hua University, 101 Sec. 2, Kuang-Fu Road, Hsinchu 30013, Taiwan (China); Patelli, E. [Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Room 610, Brodie Tower, L69 3GQ (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • With RISMC methodology, both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have been considered. • 14 probabilistically significant sequences have been identified and quantified. • A load spectrum for LBLOCA has been conducted with CPCT and SP of each dominant sequence. • Comparing to deterministic methodologies, the risk-informed PCT margin can be greater by 44–62 K. • The SP of the referred sequence to cover 99% in the load spectrum is only 5.07 * 10{sup −3}. • The occurrence probability of the deterministic licensing sequence is 5.46 * 10{sup −5}. - Abstract: For general design basis accidents, such as SBLOCA and LBLOCA, the traditional deterministic safety analysis methodologies are always applied to analyze events based on a so called surrogate or licensing sequence, without considering how low this sequence occurrence probability is. In the to-be-issued 10 CFR 50.46a, the LBLOCA will be categorized as accidents beyond design basis and the PCT margin shall be evaluated in a risk-informed manner. According to the risk-informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) methodology, a process has been suggested to evaluate the risk-informed PCT margin. Following the RISMC methodology, a load spectrum of PCT for LBLOCA has been generated for the Taiwan’s Maanshan Nuclear Power plant and 14 probabilistic significant sequences have been identified. It was observed in the load spectrum that the conditional PCT generally ascends with the descending sequence occurrence probability. With the load spectrum covering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, the risk-informed PCT margin can be evaluated by either expecting value estimation method or sequence probability coverage method. It was found that by comparing with the traditional deterministic methodology, the PCT margin evaluated by the RISMC methodology can be greater by 44–62 K. Besides, to have a cumulated occurrence probability over 99% in the load spectrum, the occurrence probability

  13. Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

    2018-06-01

    Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  14. Experience with two pipeline river crossings in Argentina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaremko, Eugene [Northwest Hydraulic Consultants (NHC), Edmonton (Canada); D' Agnillo, Pablo; Diaz, Jose A. [Minera Alumbrera XTRADA Copper S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina); Bravo, Claudio

    2009-12-19

    The Alumbrera copper-gold mine located in the Province of Catamarca, northwest region of Argentina, commenced operation in October, 1997. Mine development included a 316 km long, 175 mm diameter slurry pipeline that conveys copper concentrate to a dewatering facility near the city of Tucuman, Province of Tucuman. It became apparent during the first few years of operation that, given the many potential risks of pipeline exposure associated with stream crossings, Minera Alumbrera would have to undertake an aggressive, formal program of risk management of crossings and risk mitigation. In this paper, the experience associated with two crossings is addressed: Rio Villavil; and, Rio Gastona. The original pipeline route through the 10 km length of pipeline connecting Pump Station (PS) 2 to PS 3 was directed along the bottom of the Rio Villavil valley, with most of it located within the flood way of the stream. The exposure of the pipeline at some locations and high risk of further pipeline exposures led to initiation of risk mitigation planning. Remediation work was completed by 2008. Rio Gastona, during the summer of 2001, experienced rapid shifting of the left bank at the crossing resulting in an undermined and unsupported length of pipeline. The subsequent risk mitigation method adopted in 2001 involved the planning and construction of groyne fields along both banks. (author)

  15. Theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks determining in different countries of the world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yashina Nadezhda, I.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study deals with the problems of the theory and methodology of social, political and economic processes risks in different countries with relative indicators of the socio-economic development level, as well as the size and condition of the public debt. Developed by the authors the methodology of determining the risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world revealed close relationship between socio-economic situation of the countries and their public debt. Within the framework of this methodology two groups of factors characterizing the socio-political and economic processes in the country are being developed. After that each exponent and indicator are being processed, using expert procedures. Maximum statutory values for tentatively referenced countries with effective and ineffective government policies are identified. Then standardization (specification and definition of integral (generalized indexes of socio-political and economic processes in the country are taking place. After that the ranking of countries by aggregated standardized ratio is arranged, taking into account the significance of the developed indicators. The final phase of implementation methodology is identifying risks of social, political and economic processes of public policy around the world. This is the ranking of countries by ratio of stability in public policy (stability of economic and socio-political processes in the country. As the result of implementation methodology the following output was received: what really makes a difference is not the amount of the country's debt, but how effectively it manages this debt, whether it has a goal to improve social and economic indicators. Practical testing methodology has proven that studied indicators fully characterize the development of the countries, their political, social and economic situation on the world stage.

  16. Underwater Adhesives Retrofit Pipelines with Advanced Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Houston-based Astro Technology Inc. used a partnership with Johnson Space Center to pioneer an advanced fiber-optic monitoring system for offshore oil pipelines. The company's underwater adhesives allow it to retrofit older deepwater systems in order to measure pressure, temperature, strain, and flow properties, giving energy companies crucial data in real time and significantly decreasing the risk of a catastrophe.

  17. An Initial Evaluation Of Characterization And Closure Options For Underground Pipelines Within A Hanford Site Single-Shell Tank Farm-13210

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badden, Janet W.; Connelly, Michael P.; Seeley, Paul N.; Hendrickson, Michelle L.

    2013-01-01

    The Hanford Site includes 149 single-shell tanks, organized in 12 'tank farms,' with contents managed as high-level mixed waste. The Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order requires that one tank farm, the Waste Management Area C, be closed by June 30, 2019. A challenge to this project is the disposition and closure of Waste Management Area C underground pipelines. Waste Management Area C contains nearly seven miles of pipelines and 200 separate pipe segments. The pipelines were taken out of service decades ago and contain unknown volumes and concentrations of tank waste residuals from past operations. To understand the scope of activities that may be required for these pipelines, an evaluation was performed. The purpose of the evaluation was to identify what, if any, characterization methods and/or closure actions may be implemented at Waste Management Area C for closure of Waste Management Area C by 2019. Physical and analytical data do not exist for Waste Management Area C pipeline waste residuals. To develop estimates of residual volumes and inventories of contamination, an extensive search of available information on pipelines was conducted. The search included evaluating historical operation and occurrence records, physical attributes, schematics and drawings, and contaminant inventories associated with the process history of plutonium separations facilities and waste separations and stabilization operations. Scoping analyses of impacts to human health and the environment using three separate methodologies were then developed based on the waste residual estimates. All analyses resulted in preliminary assessments, indicating that pipeline waste residuals presented a comparably low long-term impact to groundwater with respect to soil, tank and other ancillary equipment residuals, but exceeded Washington State cleanup requirement values. In addition to performing the impact analyses, the assessment evaluated available sampling technologies and

  18. An Initial Evaluation of Characterization and Closure Options for Underground Pipelines within a Hanford Site Single-Shell Tank Farm - 13210

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badden, Janet W.; Connelly, Michael P. [Washington River Protection Services, P.O. Box 850, Richland, Washington, 99352 (United States); Seeley, Paul N. [Cenibark International, Inc., 104318 Nicole Drive, Kennewick, Washington, 99338-7596 (United States); Hendrickson, Michelle L. [Washington State Department of Ecology, 3100 Port of Benton Blvd, Richland, Washington, 99354 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The Hanford Site includes 149 single-shell tanks, organized in 12 'tank farms,' with contents managed as high-level mixed waste. The Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order requires that one tank farm, the Waste Management Area C, be closed by June 30, 2019. A challenge to this project is the disposition and closure of Waste Management Area C underground pipelines. Waste Management Area C contains nearly seven miles of pipelines and 200 separate pipe segments. The pipelines were taken out of service decades ago and contain unknown volumes and concentrations of tank waste residuals from past operations. To understand the scope of activities that may be required for these pipelines, an evaluation was performed. The purpose of the evaluation was to identify what, if any, characterization methods and/or closure actions may be implemented at Waste Management Area C for closure of Waste Management Area C by 2019. Physical and analytical data do not exist for Waste Management Area C pipeline waste residuals. To develop estimates of residual volumes and inventories of contamination, an extensive search of available information on pipelines was conducted. The search included evaluating historical operation and occurrence records, physical attributes, schematics and drawings, and contaminant inventories associated with the process history of plutonium separations facilities and waste separations and stabilization operations. Scoping analyses of impacts to human health and the environment using three separate methodologies were then developed based on the waste residual estimates. All analyses resulted in preliminary assessments, indicating that pipeline waste residuals presented a comparably low long-term impact to groundwater with respect to soil, tank and other ancillary equipment residuals, but exceeded Washington State cleanup requirement values. In addition to performing the impact analyses, the assessment evaluated available sampling technologies

  19. Security of pipeline facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.C. [Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, Calgary, AB (Canada); Van Egmond, C.; Duquette, L. [National Energy Board, Calgary, AB (Canada); Revie, W. [Canada Centre for Mineral and Energy Technology, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This working group provided an update on provincial, federal and industry directions regarding the security of pipeline facilities. The decision to include security issues in the NEB Act was discussed as well as the Pipeline Security Management Assessment Project, which was created to establish a better understanding of existing security management programs as well as to assist the NEB in the development and implementation of security management regulations and initiatives. Amendments to the NEB were also discussed. Areas of pipeline security management assessment include physical safety management; cyber and information security management; and personnel security. Security management regulations were discussed, as well as implementation policies. Details of the Enbridge Liquids Pipelines Security Plan were examined. It was noted that the plan incorporates flexibility for operations and is integrated with Emergency Response and Crisis Management. Asset characterization and vulnerability assessments were discussed, as well as security and terrorist threats. It was noted that corporate security threat assessment and auditing are based on threat information from the United States intelligence community. It was concluded that the oil and gas industry is a leader in security in North America. The Trans Alaska Pipeline Incident was discussed as a reminder of how costly accidents can be. Issues of concern for the future included geographic and climate issues. It was concluded that limited resources are an ongoing concern, and that the regulatory environment is becoming increasingly prescriptive. Other concerns included the threat of not taking international terrorism seriously, and open media reporting of vulnerability of critical assets, including maps. tabs., figs.

  20. LNG transport through pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfund, P; Philipps, A

    1975-01-01

    LNG pipelines could help solve some peakshaving problems if operated in conjunction with other facilities that could use the LNG cold recovered during regasification. In some areas at present, LNG is delivered by tanker and regasified near the terminal for transmission through conventional gas pipelines. In other places, utilities liquefy natural gas for easy storage for later peakshaving use. The only chance to avoid the second expensive liquefaction step would be to convey imported LNG through a suitable designed LNG pipeline. The technical problems involved in LNG pipeline construction have basically been solved in recent years, but those pipelines actually constructed have been only short ones. To be economically justified, long-distance LNG lines require additional credit, which could be obtained by selling the LNG cold recovered during regasification to industrial users located in or near the points of gas consumption. Technical details presented cover the pipe material, stress relief, steel composition, pressure enthalpy, bellows-type expansion joints, and mechanical and thermal insulation.

  1. Water level detection pipeline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshikawa, Yukinobu; Imanishi, Masatoshi; Niizato, Masaru; Takagi, Masahiro

    1998-01-01

    In the present invention, water levels of a feedwater heater and a drain tank in a nuclear power plant are detected at high accuracy. Detection pipeline headers connected to the upper and lower portions of a feedwater heater or a drain tank are connected with each other. The connection line is branched at appropriate two positions and an upper detection pipeline and a lower detection pipeline are connected thereto, and a gauge entrance valve is disposed to each of the detection pipelines. A diaphragm of a pressure difference generator is connected to a flange formed to the end portion. When detecting the change of water level in the feedwater heater or the drain tank as a change of pressure difference, gauge entrance valves on the exit side of the upper and lower detection pipelines are connected by a connection pipe. The gauge entrance valve is closed, a tube is connected to the lower detection pipe to inject water to the diaphragm of the pressure difference generator passing through the connection pipe thereby enabling to calibrate the pressure difference generator. The accuracy of the calibration of instruments is improved and workability thereof upon flange maintenance is also improved. (I.S.)

  2. The Department of Homeland Security's Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Masse, Todd; O'Neil, Siobhan; Rollins, John

    2007-01-01

    .... Secretary Chertoff has stated "DHS must base its work on priorities driven by risk" and, increasingly, risk assessment and subsequent risk mitigation have influenced all of the department's efforts...

  3. Software for pipeline integrity administration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soula, Gerardo; Perona, Lucas Fernandez [Gie SA., Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinich, Carlos [Refinaria do Norte S. A. (REFINOR), Tartagal, Provincia de Salta (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    A Software for 'pipeline integrity management' was developed. It allows to deal with Geographical Information and a PODS database (Pipeline Open database Standard) simultaneously, in a simple and reliable way. The premises for the design were the following: didactic, geo referenced, multiple reference systems. Program skills: 1.PODS+GIS: the PODS database in which the software is based on is completely integrated with the GIS module. 2 Management of different kinds of information: it allows to manage information on facilities, repairs, interventions, physical inspections, geographical characteristics, compliance with regulations, training, offline events, operation measures, O and M information treatment and importing specific data and studies in a massive way. It also assures the integrity of the loaded information. 3 Right of way survey: it allows to verify the class location, ROW occupation, sensitive areas identification and to manage landowners. 4 Risk analysis: it is done in a qualitative way, depending on the entered data, allowing the user to identify the riskiest stretches of the system. Either results from risk analysis, data and consultations made about the database, can be exported to standard formats. (author)

  4. Prioritization of Delay Factors for NPP Construction Risk in International Project by Using AHP Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    construction delay of NPP. The main contribution of the work was the identification of main cause of NPP construction schedule delay for turnkey contractual approached international project in different level. The second contribution was a development of a multi-criteria decision making model for the prioritization of NPP construction delay risk factors. Finally, prioritization of delay factors in different levels of NPP construction delay risk factors were accomplished. The model is developed by using the AHP methodology. This study has produced results and insights that involve one of the most vital aspect which is the quantitative weights and ranking of factors that affect delay in NPP construction. Undoubtedly, it is a necessity in the NPP construction industry for the use of quantitative terms when it comes to schedule delay risk. The outcomes of this study confirm that the model is capable to support decision-makers to examine the strengths and weaknesses of factors in different level of the NPP construction phase. Decision makers of nuclear industry can understand the significance of different factors on NPP construction phase and they can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delay of NPP. This study finds the different party's importance in behind the construction schedule delay of NPP which constitutes main contractor (28.4%), regulatory authority (27.3%), Financial and Country Factor (23.5%), and utility (20.8%).The results show that the top most important 5 sub factors according to global weight in level 2 are delayed regulatory approval, country factor, inadequate completion of design before start of construction, slow procurement, manufacturing of equipment and delivery to the site for installation, and financial matters. This study finds top most important 10 sub-sub factors in the lowest level which are uncompromising regulatory criteria and conflicting licensing documents with existing regulations, robust design documents

  5. Prioritization of Delay Factors for NPP Construction Risk in International Project by Using AHP Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Sunkoo; Kim, Jonghyun

    2014-01-01

    construction delay of NPP. The main contribution of the work was the identification of main cause of NPP construction schedule delay for turnkey contractual approached international project in different level. The second contribution was a development of a multi-criteria decision making model for the prioritization of NPP construction delay risk factors. Finally, prioritization of delay factors in different levels of NPP construction delay risk factors were accomplished. The model is developed by using the AHP methodology. This study has produced results and insights that involve one of the most vital aspect which is the quantitative weights and ranking of factors that affect delay in NPP construction. Undoubtedly, it is a necessity in the NPP construction industry for the use of quantitative terms when it comes to schedule delay risk. The outcomes of this study confirm that the model is capable to support decision-makers to examine the strengths and weaknesses of factors in different level of the NPP construction phase. Decision makers of nuclear industry can understand the significance of different factors on NPP construction phase and they can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delay of NPP. This study finds the different party's importance in behind the construction schedule delay of NPP which constitutes main contractor (28.4%), regulatory authority (27.3%), Financial and Country Factor (23.5%), and utility (20.8%).The results show that the top most important 5 sub factors according to global weight in level 2 are delayed regulatory approval, country factor, inadequate completion of design before start of construction, slow procurement, manufacturing of equipment and delivery to the site for installation, and financial matters. This study finds top most important 10 sub-sub factors in the lowest level which are uncompromising regulatory criteria and conflicting licensing documents with existing regulations, robust design documents

  6. 77 FR 34123 - Pipeline Safety: Public Meeting on Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No. PHMSA-2012-0100] Pipeline Safety: Public Meeting on Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipelines AGENCY: Office of Pipeline Safety, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, DOT. ACTION...

  7. 76 FR 29333 - Pipeline Safety: Meetings of the Technical Pipeline Safety Standards Committee and the Technical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-20

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No... Technical Hazardous Liquid Pipeline Safety Standards Committee AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials... for natural gas pipelines and for hazardous liquid pipelines. Both committees were established under...

  8. Pipeline rehabilitation planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmer-Jones, Roland; Hopkins, Phil; Eyre, David [PENSPEN (United Kingdom)

    2005-07-01

    An operator faced with an onshore pipeline that has extensive damage must consider the need for rehabilitation, the sort of rehabilitation to be used, and the rehabilitation schedule. This paper will consider pipeline rehabilitation based on the authors' experiences from recent projects, and recommend a simple strategy for planning pipeline rehabilitation. It will also consider rehabilitation options: external re-coating; internal lining; internal painting; programmed repairs. The main focus will be external re-coating. Consideration will be given to rehabilitation coating types, including tape wraps, epoxy, and polyurethane. Finally it will discuss different options for scheduling the rehabilitation of corrosion damage including: the statistical comparison of signals from inspection pigs; statistical comparison of selected measurements from inspection pigs and other inspections; the use of corrosion rates estimated for the mechanisms and conditions; expert judgement. (author)

  9. Beyond the pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnsley, J.; Ellis, D.; McIntosh, J.

    1979-12-01

    A study was conducted on the lives of women and their families in Fort Nelson, British Columbia, and Whitehorse, Yukon Territory, two communities which are to be affected by the proposed construction of the Alaska Highway gas pipeline. The womens' socio-economic concerns resulting from the proposed construction were examined by means of interviews with samples of women living in the two communities. Results from the study include descriptions of the communities and their basic services, community planning and housing, women's work in the home and for wages, and the perceived impact of the pipeline on such matters as employment, social services, living costs, business, housing, crime, and the overall community. Recommendations are made to improve the planning process for the pipeline to include the taking into account of womens' needs in such areas as training, health care, housing, and community services. 213 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. CPL: Common Pipeline Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    ESO CPL Development Team

    2014-02-01

    The Common Pipeline Library (CPL) is a set of ISO-C libraries that provide a comprehensive, efficient and robust software toolkit to create automated astronomical data reduction pipelines. Though initially developed as a standardized way to build VLT instrument pipelines, the CPL may be more generally applied to any similar application. The code also provides a variety of general purpose image- and signal-processing functions, making it an excellent framework for the creation of more generic data handling packages. The CPL handles low-level data types (images, tables, matrices, strings, property lists, etc.) and medium-level data access methods (a simple data abstraction layer for FITS files). It also provides table organization and manipulation, keyword/value handling and management, and support for dynamic loading of recipe modules using programs such as EsoRex (ascl:1504.003).

  11. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

  12. Northern pipelines : backgrounder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-04-01

    Most analysts agree that demand for natural gas in North America will continue to grow. Favourable market conditions created by rising demand and declining production have sparked renewed interest in northern natural gas development. The 2002 Annual Energy Outlook forecasted U.S. consumption to increase at an annual average rate of 2 per cent from 22.8 trillion cubic feet to 33.8 TCF by 2020, mostly due to rapid growth in demand for electric power generation. Natural gas prices are also expected to increase at an annual average rate of 1.6 per cent, reaching $3.26 per thousand cubic feet in 2020. There are currently 3 proposals for pipelines to move northern gas to US markets. They include a stand-alone Mackenzie Delta Project, the Alaska Highway Pipeline Project, and an offshore route that would combine Alaskan and Canadian gas in a pipeline across the floor of the Beaufort Sea. Current market conditions and demand suggest that the projects are not mutually exclusive, but complimentary. The factors that differentiate northern pipeline proposals are reserves, preparedness for market, costs, engineering, and environmental differences. Canada has affirmed its role to provide the regulatory and fiscal certainty needed by industry to make investment decisions. The Government of the Yukon does not believe that the Alaska Highway Project will shut in Mackenzie Delta gas, but will instead pave the way for development of a new northern natural gas industry. The Alaska Highway Pipeline Project will bring significant benefits for the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and the rest of Canada. Unresolved land claims are one of the challenges that has to be addressed for both Yukon and the Northwest Territories, as the proposed Alaska Highway Pipeline will travel through traditional territories of several Yukon first Nations. 1 tab., 4 figs

  13. Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

  14. Updating Optimal Decisions Using Game Theory and Exploring Risk Behavior Through Response Surface Methodology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jordan, Jeremy D

    2007-01-01

    .... Methodology is developed that allows a decision maker to change his perceived optimal policy based on available knowledge of the opponents strategy, where the opponent is a rational decision maker...

  15. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  16. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  17. Randomized clinical trials in dentistry: Risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodologic quality over the years 1955-2013.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Humam Saltaji

    Full Text Available To examine the risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions and the development of these aspects over time.We included 540 randomized clinical trials from 64 selected systematic reviews. We extracted, in duplicate, details from each of the selected randomized clinical trials with respect to publication and trial characteristics, reporting and methodologic characteristics, and Cochrane risk of bias domains. We analyzed data using logistic regression and Chi-square statistics.Sequence generation was assessed to be inadequate (at unclear or high risk of bias in 68% (n = 367 of the trials, while allocation concealment was inadequate in the majority of trials (n = 464; 85.9%. Blinding of participants and blinding of the outcome assessment were judged to be inadequate in 28.5% (n = 154 and 40.5% (n = 219 of the trials, respectively. A sample size calculation before the initiation of the study was not performed/reported in 79.1% (n = 427 of the trials, while the sample size was assessed as adequate in only 17.6% (n = 95 of the trials. Two thirds of the trials were not described as double blinded (n = 358; 66.3%, while the method of blinding was appropriate in 53% (n = 286 of the trials. We identified a significant decrease over time (1955-2013 in the proportion of trials assessed as having inadequately addressed methodological quality items (P < 0.05 in 30 out of the 40 quality criteria, or as being inadequate (at high or unclear risk of bias in five domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: sequence generation, allocation concealment, incomplete outcome data, other sources of bias, and overall risk of bias.The risks of bias, risks of random errors, reporting quality, and methodological quality of randomized clinical trials of oral health interventions have improved over time; however, further efforts that contribute to the development of more stringent

  18. Applying Costs, Risks and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) methodology to Engineering Support Request (ESR) prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglekar, Prafulla N.

    1994-01-01

    Given limited budget, the problem of prioritization among Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) with varied sizes, shapes, and colors is a difficult one. At the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the recently developed 4-Matrix (4-M) method represents a step in the right direction as it attempts to combine the traditional criteria of technical merits only with the new concern for cost-effectiveness. However, the 4-M method was not adequately successful in the actual prioritization of ESRs for the fiscal year 1995 (FY95). This research identifies a number of design issues that should help us to develop better methods. It emphasizes that given the variety and diversity of ESR's one should not expect that a single method could help in the assessment of all ESR's. One conclusion is that a methodology such as Costs, Risks, and Values Evaluation (CRAVE) should be adopted. It also is clear that the development of methods such as 4-M requires input not only from engineers with technical expertise in ESR's but also from personnel with adequate background in the theory and practice of cost-effectiveness analysis. At KSC, ESR prioritization is one part of the Ground Support Working Teams (GSWT) Integration Process. It was discovered that the more important barriers to the incorporation of cost-effectiveness considerations in ESR prioritization lie in this process. The culture of integration, and the corresponding structure of review by a committee of peers, is not conducive to the analysis and confrontation necessary in the assessment and prioritization of ESR's. Without assistance from appropriately trained analysts charged with the responsibility to analyze and be confrontational about each ESR, the GSWT steering committee will continue to make its decisions based on incomplete understanding, inconsistent numbers, and at times, colored facts. The current organizational separation of the prioritization and the funding processes is also identified as an important barrier to the

  19. VAR, stress-testing and supplementary methodologies: uses and constraints in energy risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senior, Brian

    1999-01-01

    This chapter lists some of the special risks associated with a range of energy markets, and questions what is risk. Market risk, the use of value-at-risk (VAR) for measuring and managing market risk, use of VAR in the banking sector, back-testing of VAR, the corporate sector, making investment decisions, and the need for additional methods of risk analysis are discussed. Scenario analysis and stress testing, liquidity, and combining VAR and stress-testing are described. Credit risk and the quantitative analysis of credit risk are addressed, and operational risk, and organisational challenges are considered. Panels present examples of a simple VAR calculation and give descriptions of VAR in corporate decisions, the measurement of liquidity, and the use of the Greeks in decisions on day to day trading and risk management

  20. A methodology to analize the safety of a coastal nuclear power plant against the Typhoon external flooding risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Tian; He Mi; Chen Guofei; Joly, Antoine; Pan Rong; Ji Ping

    2015-01-01

    For the protection of coastal Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) against the external flooding hazard, the risks caused by natural events have to be taken into account. In this article, a methodology is proposed to analyze the risk of the typical natural event in China (Typhoon). It includes the simulation of the storm surge and the strong waves due to its passage in Chinese coastal zones and the quantification of the sequential overtopping flow rate. The simulation is carried out by coupling 2 modules of the hydraulic modeling system TELEMAC-MASCARET from EDF, TELEMAC2D (Shallow water module) and TOMAWAC (spectral wave module). As an open-source modeling system, this methodology could still be enriched by other phenomena in the near future to ameliorate its performance in safety analysis of the coastal NPPs in China. (author)

  1. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  2. Evaluation of doses and risks from different decontamination and decommissioning strategies using the PRESTO-II methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.

    1986-01-01

    The PRESTO-II methodology may be applied to evaluate doses and health risks from a variety of decontamination and decommissioning activities. This methodology has been implemented in the form of a computer code that has been applied to several sites, and that has been extensively documented. Radionuclide inventories are specified as separate contamination sources either present on the ground surface, covered by non-radioactive soils but lying above the water table, suspended in the atmosphere, or dissolved in surface waters. Hydrologic transport mechanisms considered in the PRESTO-II methodology include chemical exchange, ponding and overflow, surface water transport, groundwater transport, and pumping contaminated groundwater from wells. Varied scenarios of water usage are treated. Atmospheric inputs are based on both resuspension factor and resuspension rate approaches, with inhalation and immersion doses based on a Gaussian plume transport calculation. Site activities that are considered include land clearing, farming, and residing on the site. Exposure and dose calculations are derived from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reg. Guide 1.109 approach, while risk calculations use a life-table approach developed for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Internal dose conversion factors are taken from ICRP 26 and 30, while risk conversion factors are values suggested by EPA. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 t