WorldWideScience

Sample records for phytosanitary risk analysis

  1. Phytosanitary irradiation - Development and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallman, Guy J.; Loaharanu, Paisan

    2016-12-01

    Phytosanitary irradiation, the use of ionizing radiation to disinfest traded agricultural commodities of regulated pests, is a growing use of food irradiation that has great continued potential for increase in commercial application. In 2015 approximately 25,000 t of fresh fruits and vegetables were irradiated globally for phytosanitary purposes. Phytosanitary irradiation has resulted in a paradigm shift in phytosanitation in that the final burden of proof of efficacy of the treatment has shifted from no live pests upon inspection at a port of entry (as for all previous phytosanitary treatments) to total dependence on certification that the treatment for target pests is based on adequate science and is commercially conducted and protected from post-treatment infestation. In this regard phytosanitary irradiation is managed more like a hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) approach more consistent with food safety than phytosanitation. Thus, phytosanitary irradiation offers a more complete and rigorous methodology for safeguarding than other phytosanitary measures. The role of different organizations in achieving commercial application of phytosanitary irradiation is discussed as well as future issues and applications, including new generic doses.

  2. Aceria kuko Mites: a Comprehensive Review of Their Phytosanitary Risk, Pathways and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Ciceoi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The present review aims to identify the phytosanitary risk, the pathways and the possible control methods of a new eryophid alien species mentioned for the first time in Romania in 2010. The pest is Aceria kuko, the goji-berries gall mite, imported in Europe from China via orders by mail possibly in 2007 or 2008. Although the import from third countries into the European Union of Solanaceae intended for planting is prohibited according to Dir. 2000/29/EC, as a protective measure against the introduction into the Community of organisms harmful to plants or plant products and against their spread within the Community, the parcels ordered by mail escape the quarantine and pest & disease control services. Our field observations regarding the attack frequency, attack intensity and the losses indicate that the non-native plant pest is a potential threat also for Romania, although no attention has been given to it until the present moment. We consider that monitoring the presence of the mite in the Romanian Goji plantations and the changes in the A. kuko biology and ecology has a strategic importance and should be regarded as a biosafety measure not only for Romania, but for entire Europe, as the Goji fruits produced in Romania are mainly exported in the European countries.

  3. Food Safety and Plant Health in Ghana - Analysis of the Sanitary and Phytosanitary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maden, van der E.C.L.J.; Tay, J.G.; Koomen, I.

    2014-01-01

    Ghana is a signatory of the WTO agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures. This international agreement sets out a framework for food safety as well as plant health. While food safety is important for both national as well as international trade, phytosanitary compliance can especially

  4. Scientific Opinion on the phytosanitary risk associated with some coniferous species and genera for the spread of pine wood nematode

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2012-01-01

    The European Commission requested the Panel on Plant Health to deliver a scientific opinion on the phytosanitary risk of plants (other than fruits and seeds) of Pinus pinea and of the genera Chamaecyparis, Cryptomeria and Juniperus for the spread of pine wood nematode (PWN) via movement of infested...... plants or untreated plant products or by supporting natural spread of PWN in conjunction with European species of the vector. The Panel analysed the data submitted by Portugal regarding surveys on the Tróia Peninsula where P. pinaster and P. pinea co-occur, and the related laboratory results of Naves et...

  5. Scientific Opinion on the phytosanitary risk associated with some coniferous species and genera for the spread of pine wood nematode

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2012-01-01

    The European Commission requested the Panel on Plant Health to deliver a scientific opinion on the phytosanitary risk of plants (other than fruits and seeds) of Pinus pinea and of the genera Chamaecyparis, Cryptomeria and Juniperus for the spread of pine wood nematode (PWN) via movement of infested...... of the small P. pinea sample. Hence, the conclusion that P. pinea is not a host plant for PWN is not supported by the data submitted, principally because of low statistical confidence arising from the few P. pinea trees present. Moreover, the limited presence of P. pinea in the study areas means...... potentially allowing PWN transmission to trees by this route. The available information regarding the genera Chamaecyparis, Cryptomeria and Juniperus as potential hosts of Monochamus spp. and PWN suggests overall a low susceptibility to PWN or its vectors; the uncertainty concerning PWN is high and would...

  6. An overview of phytosanitary risk aspects of composting by organic farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termorshuizen, A.J.; Blok, W.J.

    2005-01-01

    Usage of compost in agriculture always brings about the risk of introducing plant pathogens. By proper composting, resulting in high temperatures during the thermophilic phase, compost can be applied safely. Organic farmers often prefer to compost organic residues themselves. The advantage of such

  7. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  8. Modeling phytosanitary risk of unintended commodity use: the example of U.S. potato exports to Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Glenn; Erikson, Lottie; Caton, Barney; Gutierrez, Walter; Griffin, Robert

    2014-09-01

    Diversion of commodities from their intended use to an unintended use, e.g., when commodities intended for consumption are used as seed for planting, is an important issue in agricultural trade that has implications for the establishment of pests and pathogens in an importing country and for the appropriate strength of plant health measures. Consequently, understanding and accurately characterizing the risk of diversion from intended use is highly relevant to policymakers, trading partners, and in trade dispute arbitration. To our knowledge, no risk assessments have ever accounted for the likelihood of diversion from intended use. Here we present an approach to analyzing this risk using diversion of U.S. table stock potatoes to seed for planting by Mexican potato producers as a case study. We use probabilistic pathway models to characterize the movement of white, yellow, and russet potatoes from the United States into Mexico at current and double export volumes. We then model the likelihood of these potatoes being diverted for seed and the subsequent establishment of bacteria, nematode, and virus pests in Mexico. Our approach demonstrates how diversion from intended use can be quantified in one scenario and, in particular, how it can be analyzed to estimate the magnitude of diversion required to produce a high risk of pest establishment.

  9. High levels of exotic armored scales on imported avocados raise concerns regarding USDA-APHIS' phytosanitary risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, J G; Rugman-Jones, P F; Watson, G W; Robinson, L J; Bi, J L; Stouthamer, R

    2009-06-01

    Between 1914 and 2007, a quarantine protected California avocado, Persea americana Mill., groves from pests that might be introduced into the state along with fresh, imported avocados. Soon after Mexican avocados were first allowed entry on 1 February 2007, live specimens of several species of armored scales (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) not believed to be present in California were detected on 'Hass' avocados entering the state from Mexico. Initially, the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) prevented avocados infested with these scales from entering the state or required that they be fumigated with an approved treatment such as methyl bromide. After a Science Advisory Panel meeting in May 2007, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) reaffirmed its position that armored scales on shipments of fruit for consumption (including avocados) pose a "low risk" for pest establishment. In compliance with APHIS protocols, as of 18 July 2007, CDFA altered its policy to allow shipments of scale-infested avocados into the state without treatment. Here, we report on sampling Mexican avocados over an 8-mo period, September 2007-April 2008. An estimated 67 million Mexican Hass avocados entered California over this period. Based on samples from 140 trucks containing approximately 15.6% of this volume of fruit, we estimate that approximately 47.6 million live, sessile armored scales and an additional 20.1 million live eggs and crawlers were imported. We found eight probable species of armored scales in the samples, seven of these are not believed to occur in California; 89.3% of the live scales were Abgrallaspis aguacatae Evans, Watson and Miller, a recently described species. In contrast to the USDA-APHIS opinion, we believe the volume of shipments and levels of live scales they contain present a significant risk to California's US$300 million avocado industry and to other crops that might become infested by one or more of

  10. 75 FR 32900 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Sweet Limes From Mexico...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of sweet... application of one or more designated phytosanitary measures will be sufficient to mitigate the pest risk....

  11. Towards internationally acceptable standards for food additives and contaminants based on the use of risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huggett, A.; Petersen, B.J.; Walker, R.; Fisher, C.E.; Notermans, S.H.W.; Rombouts, F.M.; Abbott, P.; Debackere, M.; Hathaway, S.C.; Hecker, E.F.F.; Knaap, A.G.A.; Kuznesof, P.M.; Meyland, I.; Moy, G.; Narbonne, J.-F.; Paakkanen, J.; Smith, M.R.; Tennant, D.; Wagstaffe, P.; Wargo, J.; Würtzen, G.

    1998-01-01

    Internationally acceptable norms need to incorporate sound science and consistent risk management principles in an open and transparent manner, as set out in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement). The process of risk analysis provides a procedure

  12. International standards for phytosanitary measures (ISPM), publication No. 15

    CERN Multimedia

    Tom Wegelius

    2006-01-01

    GUIDELINES FOR REGULATING WOOD PACKAGING MATERIAL IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE SCOPE This standard describes phytosanitary measures to reduce the risk of introduction and/or spread of quarantine pests associated with wood packaging material (including dunnage), made of coniferous and non-coniferous raw wood, in use in international trade. For more information, contact the Shipping Service (FI-LS-SH) at 79947. Table of guidelines

  13. Scientific Opinion on comments provided by Portugal on the phytosanitary risk associated with Pinus pinea for the spread of pine wood nematode

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Following a request from European Commission, the PLH Panel examined the comments of the Portuguese plant health authorities on a previous EFSA opinion with regard to pine wood nematode (PWN and Pinus pinea and a report on PWN surveys in Portugal. Regarding the comment, based on behavioural responses of PWN to CO2 and to ß-myrcene, that Monochamus galloprovincialis can feed on P. pinea without implying PWN infestation, the Panel noted the uncertainties on how chemical attraction influences the exit of PWN from the vector. The Panel agreed that P. pinea is not a preferred breeding host of M. galloprovincialis, but it noted the evidence from Italy of breeding of M. galloprovincialis in fallen woods of P. pinea, suggesting P. pinea to be an occasional host. The Panel agreed that, although pathogenicity of PWN has been recorded on P. pinea in inoculation experiments on small plants, this does not necessarily relate to pathogenicity on larger trees in the field. The additional information on Portuguese PWN surveys is not sufficient to conclude that P. pinea is resistant to PWN. The Panel also noted that asymptomatic infestations by PWN are well known in other areas, and pine species considered tolerant to PWN could still maintain it at low levels in restricted parts of a tree. The Panel concluded that there is high uncertainty concerning the classification of the risk of spread of PWN with plants and wood of P. pinea, owing to the scarcity of information on the interaction of M. galloprovincialis, PWN and P. pinea, as well as on the field resistance of P. pinea to PWN. Owing to high uncertainty related to the host potential of P. pinea, more studies on the transmission of PWN at feeding wounds and on its survival in trees and wood of P. pinea are needed.

  14. Towards Phytopia; A framework for reflection on phytosanitary policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmer, J.; Slobbe, R.B.

    2011-01-01

    What is the ideal phytosanitary policy? The Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture & Innovation has asked LEI to develop a framework based on which the government can review its role in phytosanitary policy. The framework should contain a step by step plan which can be used with regard to new

  15. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures in NAFTA: The Canada Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Terry Norman

    2005-01-01

    Canada's Experience in Implementing the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) provisions of the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA). The NAFTA has been a major success story for Canada since its entry into force on January 1, 1994.

  16. A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, T; MacLeod, A; Mumford, J D; Nghiem, T P L; Tan, H T W; Papworth, S K; Corlett, R T; Carrasco, L R

    2016-05-01

    A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Preliminary study of e-beam processing as a phytosanitary treatment against Guignardia citricarpa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Araujo, Michel M.; Fanaro, Gustavo B.; Silveira, Ana P.M.; Rogovschi, Vladimir D.; Villavicencio, Anna L.C.H. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: villavic@ipen.br; Correa, Benedito [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Ciencias Biomedicas. Dept. de Micologia], e-mail: correabe@usp.br

    2009-07-01

    Citrus black spot (CBS) is a fungal disease, caused by Guignardia citricarpa and affects practically all citrus species of economic importance, especially sweet oranges. It has become a serious, widespread problem for citrus production in South America. It causes lesions on citrus fruit peel and leaves and can induce fruit drop before maturity. Fruits from citrus areas affected by CBS represent a risk for introduction of this pathogen into new areas. European Community and United States severely limit importation of fresh citrus fruit from those countries were the disease is present. Various treatments have been explored to reduce the risk of introduction of CBS into countries that are currently free of this disease. E-beam processing has been successfully used to inactivate food spoilage microorganisms, including bacteria, yeasts and moulds. Ionizing radiation treatment has been known to extend the postharvest life of many tropical and subtropical fruits. Irradiation is the most recent commercial phytosanitary treatment for fresh commodities. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of electron beam processing on the viability of G. citricarpa. Isolated fungi from naturally infected oranges were irradiated with 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10.0 and 12.5 kGy using an electron beam irradiator (Radiation Dynamics Co., model JOB-188, New York, USA). Irradiation appeared to be a useful alternative as a phytosanitary treatment to control citrus black spot dissemination. (author)

  18. Information security risk analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2001-01-01

    Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

  19. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Barriers to trade?: the Peruvian Case in Asia-Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Alonso Valverde Arevalo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Currently, tariffs do not represent the main barrier to foreign trade, due to the continued reduction of these measures in the multilateral or bilateral level. In contrast, non-tariff measures have increased to be considered as the main concern for exports. In this context, one kind of such measures becomes more important, the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS measures. SPS measures serve to protect the health of people, animals and plants against risks associated with diseases, pests between others; however, by the design of those measures, they can distort trade or even been used for protectionist purposes in favor of national industries of importing countries. This article questions whether Peru has achieved real market access for its agricultural and fishery products, because of the wide range of international trade agreements in force. In this sense, historical and pending cases are presented in terms of market access due to SPS measures, like the access for Peruvian avocadoes In the Japanese market. Furthermore, the provisions of trade agreements in terms of sanitary and phytosanitary measures are analyzed in order to present potential opportunities that are established in these agreements and how they encourage trade. It is also presented that those kind of measures have not been used to facilitate Peruvian foreign trade.

  20. Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morring, Frank, Jr.

    2004-01-01

    A National Academies panel says the Hubble Space Telescope is too valuable ;or gamblingon a long-shot robotic mission to extend its service life, and urges Directly contradicting Administrator Sean O'Keefe, who killed a planned fifth shuttle servicing mission to the telescope on grounds it was too dangerous for a human crew in the post-Challenger environment, the expert committee found that upgrades to shuttle safety actually should make it less hazardous to fly to the telescope than it was before Columbia was lost. Risks of a telescope-servicing mission are only marginally greater than the planned missions to the International Space Station (ISS) O'Keefe has authorized, the panel found. After comparing those risks to the dangers inherent in trying to develop a complex space robot in the 39 months remaining in the Hubble s estimated service life, the panel opted for the human mission to save one of the major achievements of the American space program, in the words of Louis J. Lanzerotti, its chairman.

  1. SimPhy: a simulation game to lessen the impact of phytosanitaries on health and the environment--the case of Merja Zerga in Morocco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayadi, H; Le Bars, M; Le Grusse, Ph; Mandart, E; Fabre, J; Bouaziz, A; Bord, J P

    2014-04-01

    Diffuse phytosanitary pollution is a complex phenomenon to manage. Reducing this type of pollution is one of today's key socio-economic and environmental challenges. At the regional level, few approaches enable the actors concerned to implement agricultural management strategies to reduce the use and impact of phytosanitary products. Our research problem focused on the consequences of intensive agriculture and, in particular, how to evaluate the impact of phytosanitary products on human health and the environment. In this article, we present the SimPhy simulation game which places the actors from a given region directly into a situation in which they manage farms whilst under pressure to reduce phytosanitaries (quantity and toxicity). The application focused on the Merja Zerga catchment area in Morocco. The region is dominated by intensive agriculture which is located upstream from a Ramsar-classified wetland area. The SimPhy simulation game is based on a decision support system-type tool. It allows us to anticipate the impact of regulations on farming systems. It also enables us to analyse the consequences of the actors' strategies on farm economies, human health and the quality of ecosystems. Initial results from the SimPhy simulation game enabled the technicians from Agricultural Development Center (CDA) themselves to learn about managing agricultural production systems in a dynamic and interactive fashion. With the simulation game, it was possible to learn about the farmer's ability to adapt to new regulatory constraints, and the involved consequences for toxicity risks for human health and the environment.

  2. Foundations of Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

  3. Current and potential trade in horticultural products irradiated for phytosanitary purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos-Griffin, Emilia; Hallman, Guy J.; Griffin, Robert L.

    2012-08-01

    The current status of trade in horticultural products irradiated for phytosanitary purposes is examined, including trends, strengths and weaknesses. A strategy is proposed to take advantage of the best future opportunities for increasing trade in irradiated horticultural products by identifying best possibilities for expanding both the number and volume of commodities for irradiation and then applying appropriate business criteria in a general analysis of the commodities, commercial scenarios, and geographic regions where the greatest potential exists for expansion. The results show that fresh fruits such as mango, papaya, citrus, grapes, and vegetables such as tomatoes, onions, asparagus, garlic, and peppers from Asia and the Americas show the greatest potential. Substantial opportunities for additional growth exist, especially as regulatory conditions become more favorable.

  4. Physiological and phytosanitary potential of rocket seeds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jucilayne Fernandes Vieira

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the physiological and sanitary quality of seeds of rocket; the research was done at the Laboratory of Seed Analysis and greenhouse of the Department of Plant Science, Federal University of Pelotas (UFPel. Four lots of the cultivar "Antonella'' were tested for following features: initial and final moisture content, germination rate, first count of germination, accelerated aging with saline solution, dry matter contents, seedling shoot and root length, emergence speed index, emergence of seedlings in substrate, electrical conductivity and sanitary condition. A completely randomized design with four replications was used for all tests done and means were compared by Tukey test (P≤0.05. For all tests performed it was concluded that despite changes in the ranking of the best lots, there was agreement regarding the indication of the inferiority of the lot 3 in all tests and it was also observed that the incidence of fungi associated with seeds of rocket interfere with the physiological quality of the lots.

  5. Observations on risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, W.A. Jr.

    1979-11-01

    This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested.

  6. RISK ANALYSIS DEVELOPED MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgiana Cristina NUKINA

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Through Risk analysis developed model deciding whether control measures suitable for implementation. However, the analysis determines whether the benefits of a data control options cost more than the implementation.

  7. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HWAN; YANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).……

  8. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@Risk analysis is a useful tool for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data, contaminant residue levels, statistical tools, exposure values and relevant variants. Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates, along with statutory, engineering, economic, social, and political factors, in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options (NRC, 1983).

  9. Risk Analysis in Action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KYU-HAWNYANG

    2001-01-01

    Risk analysis is a useful too for making good decisions on the risks of certain potentially hazardous agents and suggests a safe margin through scientific processes using toxicological data.contaminant residue levels,statistical tools,exposure values and relevant variants,Risk managers consider scientific evidence and risk estimates,along with statutory,engineering,economic,social,and political factors,in evaluating alternative regulatory options and choosing among those options(NRC,1983).

  10. Risk analysis methodology survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batson, Robert G.

    1987-01-01

    NASA regulations require that formal risk analysis be performed on a program at each of several milestones as it moves toward full-scale development. Program risk analysis is discussed as a systems analysis approach, an iterative process (identification, assessment, management), and a collection of techniques. These techniques, which range from simple to complex network-based simulation were surveyed. A Program Risk Analysis Handbook was prepared in order to provide both analyst and manager with a guide for selection of the most appropriate technique.

  11. Information Security Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peltier, Thomas R

    2010-01-01

    Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

  12. Quantitative risk analysis applied to innocuity and potency tests on the oil-adjuvanted vaccine against foot and mouth disease in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cané, B G; Rodríguez Toledo, J; Falczuk, A; Leanes, L F; Manetti, J C; Maradei, E; Verde, P

    1995-12-01

    The authors describe the method used in Argentina for quantification of risk in controls of the potency and innocuity of foot and mouth disease vaccine. Quantitative risk analysis is a relatively new tool in the animal health field, and is in line with the principles of transparency and equivalency of the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement of the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT: now World Trade Organisation [WTO]). The risk assessment is presented through a description of the steps involved in manufacturing the vaccine, and the controls performed by the manufacturer and by the National Health Animal Service (Servicio Nacional de Sanidad Animal: SENASA). The adverse situation is considered as the lack of potency or innocuity of the vaccine, and the risk is estimated using a combination of the Monte Carlo simulation and the application of a Bayesian model.

  13. Targeted assets risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwsema, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Risk assessments utilising the consolidated risk assessment process as described by Public Safety Canada and the Centre for Security Science utilise the five threat categories of natural, human accidental, technological, human intentional and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or explosive (CBRNE). The categories of human intentional and CBRNE indicate intended actions against specific targets. It is therefore necessary to be able to identify which pieces of critical infrastructure represent the likely targets of individuals with malicious intent. Using the consolidated risk assessment process and the target capabilities list, coupled with the CARVER methodology and a security vulnerability analysis, it is possible to identify these targeted assets and their weaknesses. This process can help emergency managers to identify where resources should be allocated and funding spent. Targeted Assets Risk Analysis (TARA) presents a new opportunity to improve how risk is measured, monitored, managed and minimised through the four phases of emergency management, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery. To reduce risk throughout Canada, Defence Research and Development Canada is interested in researching the potential benefits of a comprehensive approach to risk assessment and management. The TARA provides a framework against which potential human intentional threats can be measured and quantified, thereby improving safety for all Canadians.

  14. Phytosanitary problems detected in black truffle cultivation. A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Martín-Santafé

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: In black truffle plantations, many factors are driving the emergence of new pests and diseases which in forestry areas go unnoticed. Usually, the incidence of most of them is low. Nevertheless, in specific cases, some of them are capable of causing irreversible damage that could endanger the harvest or even tree survival.Area of study: This paper presents an in-depth study of the pests and diseases more frequently associated with truffle plantations in the region of Aragón (Spain. Damages have been arranged into the main production stages: nursery, plantations and fruiting bodies.Material and methods: The data used in this work come from the technical enquiries from truffle growers to researchers and technical staff, as well as from field visits undertaken by those work teams.Sampling methodology has been carried out following standard procedures. Insects were collected with the traps commonly used in entomology works.Main result: More than 50 damages have been described in this paper. Some of them are capable of weakening the plants and other can even kill them. Mycorrhizal competitor fungi have also been considered in this paper. These organisms do not cause real phytosanitary problems, but they can lead to important economic losses.Research highlights: Researches, truffle hunters and managers must be alert in the face of the possible occurrence of potentially dangerous organisms. The final aim: being able to take action in an efficient way in the case of a pest outbreak.Keywords: Tuber melanosporum; Quercus; parasites; pests; diseases.

  15. Simplified seismic risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pellissetti, Manuel; Klapp, Ulrich [AREVA NP GmbH, Erlangen (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Within the context of probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) for nuclear power plants (NPP's), seismic risk assessment has the purpose to demonstrate that the contribution of seismic events to overall risk is not excessive. The most suitable vehicle for seismic risk assessment is a full scope seismic PSA (SPSA), in which the frequency of core damage due to seismic events is estimated. An alternative method is represented by seismic margin assessment (SMA), which aims at showing sufficient margin between the site-specific safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) and the actual capacity of the plant. Both methods are based on system analysis (fault-trees and event-trees) and hence require fragility estimates for safety relevant systems, structures and components (SSC's). If the seismic conditions at a specific site of a plant are not very demanding, then it is reasonable to expect that the risk due to seismic events is low. In such cases, the cost-benefit ratio for performing a full scale, site-specific SPSA or SMA will be excessive, considering the ultimate objective of seismic risk analysis. Rather, it will be more rational to rely on a less comprehensive analysis, used as a basis for demonstrating that the risk due to seismic events is not excessive. The present paper addresses such a simplified approach to seismic risk assessment which is used in AREVA to: - estimate seismic risk in early design stages, - identify needs to extend the design basis, - define a reasonable level of seismic risk analysis Starting from a conservative estimate of the overall plant capacity, in terms of the HCLPF (High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure), and utilizing a generic value for the variability, the seismic risk is estimated by convolution of the hazard and the fragility curve. Critical importance is attached to the selection of the plant capacity in terms of the HCLPF, without performing extensive fragility calculations of seismically relevant SSC's. A suitable basis

  16. 7 CFR 319.75-9 - Inspection and phytosanitary certificate of inspection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Beetle § 319.75-9 Inspection and phytosanitary certificate of inspection. (a) Any nursery stock, plant... importation. (b) Any nursery stock, plant, fruit, vegetable, root, bulb, seed, or other plant product... nursery stock, plant, fruit, vegetable, root, bulb, seed, or other plant product designated as...

  17. Rationale for a generic phytosanitary irradiation dose of 70 Gy for the genus Anastrepha (Diptera: Tephritidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The phytosanitary irradiation (PI) literature of the genus Anastrepha was analyzed to determine if it was sufficient to support a generic dose <150 Gy (the accepted generic dose for all of Tephritidae) that could be used on fruit in areas of the tropical and subtropical Americas where only species o...

  18. Phytosanitary irradiation of Diatraea saccharalis, D. grandiosella, and Eoreuma loftini (Lepidoptera: Crambinae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phytosanitary irradiation (PI) is increasingly being used to disinfest horticultural commodities of invasive quarantine pests. Most disinfestation is done with generic treatments, where one dose is scheduled for a group of pests and/or commodities. The current generic treatment that USDA-APHIS uses...

  19. Phytosanitary irradiation in ports of entry: A practical solution for developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    The advantages of using ionizing irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment have been demonstrated commercially in the past two decades and several countries currently use the technology for commercial treatments to meet plant quarantine requirements. Although many countries have expressed interest in...

  20. Fundamental economic irreversibilities influence policies for enhancing international forest phytosanitary security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Will Allen; Robert G. Haight; E. Carina H. Keskitalo; Mariella Marzano; Maria Pettersson; Christopher P. Quine; E. R. Langer

    2017-01-01

    National and international efforts to manage forest biosecurity create tension between opposing sources of ecological and economic irreversibility. Phytosanitary policies designed to protect national borders from biological invasions incur sunk costs deriving from economic and political irreversibilities that incentivizes wait-and-see decision-making. However, the...

  1. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  2. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  3. Sanitary and phytosanitary measures and food safety: challenges and opportunities for developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siméon, M

    2006-08-01

    Because of fast-growing demand, export markets can absorb high value added products and offer high returns; for many developing countries export market development is thus a key requirement for rural income generation and rural growth. Although developing countries face increasingly strict sanitary and phytosanitary standards in their export markets, they can maintain and improve market access--and improve domestic food safety and agricultural productivity--by adopting a strategic approach to food safety, agricultural health and trade. High-income countries should increase development flows to help developing countries build the capacity to plan and execute the necessary strategies. The first proposal in this paper is to make two existing sets of guidelines widely available to interested parties, in particular through the World Bank and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). The first covers the broad process of problem assessment, strategy development and action plan formulation; the second set deals with institutional analysis and training of staff of the official sanitary control services. The second proposal is that interested countries and donors should speed up the ongoing development of guidelines, computer software tools and training material to help countries quantify the importance and impact of food safety issues. The focus here is on a 'multipurpose agricultural data analysis and modelization system'. The third proposal is to carry out a case study to help demonstrate that a number of animal health issues related to food safety should be treated as relating to 'global public goods' and thus require intervention on a global scale. Possible candidates are foot and mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza.

  4. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  5. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard a...

  6. International Conference on Risk Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

    2015-01-01

    This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

  7. Standard Guide for Irradiation of Fresh Agricultural Produce as a Phytosanitary Treatment

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2006-01-01

    1.1 This guide provides procedures for the radiation processing of fresh agricultural produce, for example, fruits, vegetables, and cut flowers, as a phytosanitary treatment. This guide is directed primarily toward the treatment needed to control regulated pests commonly associated with fresh agricultural produce. 1.2 The typical absorbed dose range used for phytosanitary treatments is between 150 gray (Gy) and 600 gray (Gy). The practical minimum or maximum dose of a treatment may be higher or lower than this range, depending on the type of pest to be controlled and the radiation tolerance of a particular type of fruit. If the minimum effective dose necessary to achieve the desired phytosanitary effect is greater than the radiation tolerance of the produce, then irradiation is not an appropriate treatment (see ). This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibility of the user of this standard to establish appropriate safety and hea...

  8. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  9. Quantitative Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helms, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-02-10

    The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investments or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.

  10. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures in China:Efficiency and Challenge:A Case Study of Swine Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yinguo DONG; Yehong LU

    2015-01-01

    The Sanitary and Phytosanitary( SPS) measures are technical regulations,standards,and requirements closely related to food safety,plant and animal health,and environmental safety,aiming to prevent disease,pests,pathogens and other alien risk from entering China.Pork is favorite meat for Chinese consumers; its safety directly concerns the safety of whole food supply chain with rapid increasing of pork import. This paper analyzed SPS management system of swine and pork import,and evaluated SPS efficiency of swine industry in China from SPS notification number,swine health situation,and pork import standard. The study found that as for SPS notification number and chemical residue control standard,China’s SPS protection level is relatively high,while the control level of swine diseases is still low. In China,SPS management system has the problem of involving multiple authorities and poor coordination among them,leading to some standards lacking scientific basis and low enforcement.

  11. Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Haack

    Full Text Available Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM, such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM15 in 2002, which provides treatment standards for WPM used in international trade. ISPM15 was originally developed by members of the International Plant Protection Convention to "practically eliminate" the risk of international transport of most bark and wood pests via WPM. The United States (US implemented ISPM15 in three phases during 2005-2006. We compared pest interception rates of WPM inspected at US ports before and after US implementation of ISPM15 using the US Department of Agriculture AQIM (Agriculture Quarantine Inspection Monitoring database. Analyses of records from 2003-2009 indicated that WPM infestation rates declined 36-52% following ISPM15 implementation, with results varying in statistical significance depending on the selected starting parameters. Power analyses of the AQIM data indicated there was at least a 95% chance of detecting a statistically significant reduction in infestation rates if they dropped by 90% post-ISPM15, but the probability fell as the impact of ISPM15 lessened. We discuss several factors that could have reduced the apparent impact of ISPM15 on lowering WPM infestation levels, and suggest ways that ISPM15 could be improved. The paucity of international interception data impeded our ability to conduct more thorough analyses of the impact of ISPM15, and demonstrates the need for well-planned sampling programs before and after implementation of major phytosanitary policies so that their effectiveness can be assessed. We also present summary data for bark- and wood-boring insects intercepted on WPM at US

  12. Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haack, Robert A; Britton, Kerry O; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Cavey, Joseph F; Garrett, Lynn J; Kimberley, Mark; Lowenstein, Frank; Nuding, Amelia; Olson, Lars J; Turner, James; Vasilaky, Kathryn N

    2014-01-01

    Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM), such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM15) in 2002, which provides treatment standards for WPM used in international trade. ISPM15 was originally developed by members of the International Plant Protection Convention to "practically eliminate" the risk of international transport of most bark and wood pests via WPM. The United States (US) implemented ISPM15 in three phases during 2005-2006. We compared pest interception rates of WPM inspected at US ports before and after US implementation of ISPM15 using the US Department of Agriculture AQIM (Agriculture Quarantine Inspection Monitoring) database. Analyses of records from 2003-2009 indicated that WPM infestation rates declined 36-52% following ISPM15 implementation, with results varying in statistical significance depending on the selected starting parameters. Power analyses of the AQIM data indicated there was at least a 95% chance of detecting a statistically significant reduction in infestation rates if they dropped by 90% post-ISPM15, but the probability fell as the impact of ISPM15 lessened. We discuss several factors that could have reduced the apparent impact of ISPM15 on lowering WPM infestation levels, and suggest ways that ISPM15 could be improved. The paucity of international interception data impeded our ability to conduct more thorough analyses of the impact of ISPM15, and demonstrates the need for well-planned sampling programs before and after implementation of major phytosanitary policies so that their effectiveness can be assessed. We also present summary data for bark- and wood-boring insects intercepted on WPM at US ports during 1984-2008.

  13. Campylobacter Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten

    In several countries quantitative microbiological risk assessments (QMRAs) have been performed for Campylobacter in chicken meat. The models constructed for this purpose provide a good example of the development of QMRA in general and illustrate the diversity of available methods. Despite...... the differences between the models, the most prominent conclusions of the QMRAs are similar. These conclusions for example relate to the large risk of highly contaminated meat products and the insignificance of contamination from Campylobacter positive flocks to negative flocks during slaughter and processing...

  14. Workshop One : Risk Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carlson, T.J.; Jong, C.A.F. de; Dekeling, R.P.A.

    2012-01-01

    The workshop looked at the assessment of risk to aquatic animals exposed to anthropogenic sound. The discussion focused on marine mammals given the worldwide attention being paid to them at the present time, particularly in relationship to oil and gas exploration, ocean power, and increases in ship

  15. CONSIDERATIONS ON ENTITY'S RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIRELA MONEA

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, because of the complexity of this topic, the purpose is to discuss the main aspects involved by risk analysis; starting with few conceptual approaches about risk and to outline the contributions about methods to assess different risks categories, especially methods to assess bankruptcy risk prediction (entity insolvency from economic literature. The methods used to estimate bankruptcy risk are based on the score function which helps to find if an entity is confronted with financial difficulties. The score functions are a diagnosis method elaborated relying on the discriminant analysis, allowing to assess and to predict the bankruptcy risk of the entity using a set of relevant financial ratios.

  16. Risk analysis of Papaya dieback disease introduction to China%番木瓜顶梢枯死病传入中国的风险分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    喻群芳; 张贺; 漆艳香; 陆英; 张欣; 张辉强; 谢艺贤; 蒲金基

    2014-01-01

    番木瓜顶梢枯死病(Papaya dieback disease)是番木瓜生产上最严重的病害之一。本文根据 FAO 国际植物检疫措施标准--检疫性有害生物风险分析( ISPM No.11),从番木瓜顶梢枯死病分布情况、进入可能性、定殖和扩散可能性、后果评估等方面对番木瓜顶梢枯死病传入中国开展风险分析。风险评估结果表明,番木瓜顶梢枯死病传入中国风险高,并提出了风险管理措施。%Papaya dieback disease is one of the most serious diseases of papaya production. According to the FAO’s“International standards for phytosanitary measures--Pest risk analysis for quarantine pests”(ISPMNO. 11),The risk of Papaya dieback disease introduction to China was assessed from geographical distribution, possibility of entry ,possibility of colonization and spreading ,consequence assessment. The result demonstrated that the risk of Papaya dieback disease introduction risk would be very high. Following the risk analysis, the methods of controlling the disease introducing to China were suggested.

  17. Ways of Improving Risk Management on Chicken Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Turc

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Ways of improving riskmanagement on broiler or egg chicken farms can be evaluated depending on therisk categories in emergency situations and on the components of riskmanagement. Risks can generate biological, natural, social and technologicalemergency situations. A risk element is any element that can deviate from thestrategies, plans and programmes of a chicken farm and allows predictingreality and confronting true achievements with expected results. Achieving thegoals of any broiler or egg chicken farm supposes knowing and assuming multiplerisks: risk management covers both risk identification and risk reaction. Riskanalysis supposes measures for the increase of transparency regarding chickenhealth safety, supply of experiences and protection within international tradewith broiler chickens and eggs or even live chicken. Risk analysis stipulatesthe improvement of phyto-sanitary measures and it aim at collecting, evaluatingand recording information that lead to recommendations, positions, approachesand actions as a response to an identified risk or danger; it is not meant tosupply decisions but to support decision-making.

  18. Climate change effect on the phytosanitary problems: methodology of map producing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The climate change caused by anthropic action can alter the current scenario of phytosanitary problems in Brazilian agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the methodology of producing maps of spatial distribution of phytosanitary problems of plants associated with climate change effects in Brazil. A case study was applied to coffee leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella, considered the most important pest of this culture, comparing its distribution in current and in future climate conditions. As current climate, the average of 1960 to 1990 period was considered. For the future climate conditions, the first method used increments in the temperature fixed to the country and, the second one, adopted increases, varying spatially, both aiming 2080 decade (simulating the period between 2017 to 2100, to A2 scenario. A Geographical Information System (GIS was used to produce the maps. The pest model, proposed by Parra (1985, estimates the probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles. In both methods of producing maps, increases of probable number of coffee leaf miner cycles were observed in the future. Although, using fixed increases in the average temperature caused a substimation of the number of cycles in the future, comparing to adopting increases of temperatures varying spatially. Besides the sazonal differences, regional differents were observed to the number of cycles of the leaf miner coffee.

  19. Large-scale confirmatory tests of a phytosanitary irradiation treatment against Sternochetus frigidus (F.) in Philippine mango

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigidus (F.) is an important quarantine pest preventing the export of mangoes from the Philippines to the United States and other countries. Previously, a radiation dose of 100 Gy was proposed for phytosanitary treatment of S. frigidus based on dose-response stud...

  20. ANALYSIS OF THE TAX RISK OF ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safonova M. F.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the author considers the essence of tax risks, summarized methodological approaches to the determination of tax risk classification and systematization of tax risks; stages in the analysis of tax risks

  1. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This report is submitted as a deliverable of the SRP project Global Change Risk Analysis which aims at applying risk analysis as a unifying notion for quantifying and communicating threats to ecosystem services originating from global change...

  2. Silvicultural and phytosanitary researches in thinned chestnut coppices at different elevations in Sila (Calabria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvano Avolio

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of mensurational and phytosanitary researches ten years after thinning trials in chestnut coppices (Castanea sativa Miller in Sila, are reported.. Eight experimental areas, four located at an average elevation of 1200 m a.s.l. aged 20 yrs and four located on average at 1050 m a.s.l. aged 13 yrs, were compared. Three sub-plots were installed in each area and mensurational and phytosanitary surveys were carried out in 1997 (before and after thinning trials and ten years later (2007 on 30 stools per sub-plot to assess bio-ecological, structural and compositional status of the standing crops. At each elevation, the experimental protocol included the following theses: thesis T (control: release of the standing crop and removal of dried up stems on the ground, only; thesis A (light thinning: removal of the dominated storey, on average 30% of coppice shoots, poorly shaped, both withered and green; thesis B (moderate thinning: removal from the dominated up to the dominant storey = 43% of the shoots, both dried up and green; thesis C (heavy thinning: removal = 62% of coppice shoots, both withered and green. Results highlighted the significance of thinnings in the cultivation of chestnut coppices. As for silviculture and growth pattern, the surveying ten years later showed the following outcomes: reduction of shoots mortality, according to the thinning intensity from A to C (by comparing the number of dried up coppice shoots surveyed in the control theses; a higher number of coppice shoots in the commercial category “average stems” in the thinned plots; the higher percentage increment in dbh, basal area and volume in the sub-plots undergoing thinning A and C at the elevation of 1050 m and, in general, with thesis C at both elevations; the complete recovery of canopy cover even in the sub-plots heavily thinned. As for the phytosanitary aspects, the research has been oriented on the chestnut blight caused by Cryphonectria parasitica, due to

  3. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  4. A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

    2011-07-01

    Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

  5. Dam risk assistant analysis system design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the labor intensity and task difficulty of dam risk analysis and to meet the actual requirement of dam risk analysis,it is necessary to establish a dam risk assistant analysis system.The program structure and the implementation ways of the dam risk assistant analysis system are analyzed,and a procedural framework with "three-tier and multi-database" structure and "level structure" is established.The concept of dam risk assessment system modular development is proposed and the coupled mode of function module and data is improved.Finally,the dam risk assistant analysis system is developed using Delphi visual programming language.

  6. 38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... sensitive personal information, the risk analysis must also contain operational recommendations for responding to the data breach. Each risk analysis, regardless of findings and operational recommendations... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115...

  7. RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. PIRVUTOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

  8. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    OpenAIRE

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A...

  9. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following......, further research can focus on these most important risk indicators with the aim to optimise risk analysis....

  10. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  11. The case for a generic phytosanitary irradiation dose of 250 Gy for Lepidoptera eggs and larvae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallman, Guy J.; Arthur, Valter; Blackburn, Carl M.; Parker, Andrew G.

    2013-08-01

    The literature on ionizing irradiation of Lepidoptera is critically examined for a dose that could serve as a generic phytosanitary treatment for all eggs and larvae of that order, which contains many quarantine pests that inhibit trade in fresh agricultural commodities. The measure of efficacy used in deriving this dose is the prevention of emergence of normal-looking adults that are assumed not able to fly. A dose of 250 Gy is supported by many studies comprising 34 species in 11 lepidopteran families, including those of significant quarantine importance. Two studies with two different species found that doses >250 Gy were necessary, but both of these are contradicted by other studies showing that 10,000 individuals) testing for families other than Tortricidae (the most important quarantine family in the Lepidoptera). Because several large-scale studies have been done with tortricids a dose of 250 Gy could be justifiable for Tortricidae if it is not acceptable for the entire Lepidoptera at this time.

  12. Gamma irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment for fresh pome fruits produced in Patagonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez, J.; Lires, C.; Horak, C.; Pawlak, E.; Docters, A. [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, Centro Atomico Ezeiza Presbitero Juan Gonzalez y Aragon No. 15, (B1802AYA) Ezeiza, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Kairiyama, E. [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, Centro Atomico Ezeiza Presbitero Juan Gonzalez y Aragon No. 15, (B1802AYA) Ezeiza, Buenos Aires (Argentina)], E-mail: kairiyam@cae.cnea.gov.ar

    2009-07-15

    Argentina produces 1.8 million tons/year of apples (Malus domestica L.) and pears (Pyrus communis L.) in the Patagonia region. Cydia pomonella, codling moth, and Grapholita molesta, Oriental fruit moth, (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) are quarantine pests in pome fruits. Irradiation is a promising phytosanitary treatment because a dose of 200 Gy completely prevents pest adult emergence. A pilot irradiation process of commercially packaged 'Red Delicious' apples and 'Packham's Triumph' pears was performed in an irradiation facility with a Cobalt 60 source. Quality analyses were carried out at 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 months of storage (1 deg. C, RH 99%) to evaluate fruit tolerance at 200, 400 and 800 Gy. Irradiation at 200 and 400 Gy had no undesirable effects on fruit quality (pulp firmness, external colour, soluble solids content (SSC), titratable acidity (TA) and sensory evaluations). Irradiation of 'Red Delicious' apples and 'Packham's Triumph' pears can be applied as a commercial quarantine treatment with a minimum absorbed dose of 200 Gy (to control codling moth and Oriental fruit moth) and <800 Gy (according to quality results)

  13. Risk Analysis for Tea Processing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    @@ Itis lbviors that after all the disasters with dilxins, BSE, pathogcns,Footand Mouth disease a. o. and now shortly because of the possibillties of bioterrorism, thatFoodSafetyisalmostatthetopoftheagendaoftheEUfor theyearstocome The implementaion of certainhy gicneprinci plessuchas HA C C P and a transparent hygiene policy applicable to all food and all food operators, from the farm to the table, togetherwith effoctiveinstruments to manage Food Safety will form fsubstantialpart on this agenda. As an example external quality factors such as certain pathogens in tea will. be discussed. Since risk analysis of e. g. my cotoxing have already a quite long histoy and development in sereral international bodies and tea might bear unwanted (or deliberately added by terroristic action)contaminants, the need to monitor teamuch more regularly than is being done today, seems to be a"conditio sine qua non ". Recentoy developed Immuno Flow tests may one day help the consumer perhaps to find out if he gets poisoned.

  14. Submarine Pipeline Routing Risk Quantitative Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐慧; 于莉; 胡云昌; 王金英

    2004-01-01

    A new method for submarine pipeline routing risk quantitative analysis was provided, and the study was developed from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis.The characteristics of the potential risk of the submarine pipeline system were considered, and grey-mode identification theory was used. The study process was composed of three parts: establishing the indexes system of routing risk quantitative analysis, establishing the model of grey-mode identification for routing risk quantitative analysis, and establishing the standard of mode identification result. It is shown that this model can directly and concisely reflect the hazard degree of the routing through computing example, and prepares the routing selection for the future.

  15. Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

    2017-08-11

    Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Phytosanitary irradiation of peach fruit moth (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) in apple fruits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Guoping; Li, Baishu; Gao, Meixu; Liu, Bo; Wang, Yuejin; Liu, Tao; Ren, Lili

    2014-10-01

    Peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii Matsumura, is a serious pest of many pome and stone fruits and presents a quarantine problem in some export markets. It is widely distributed in pome fruit production areas in China, Japan, Korea, North Korea and the Far Eastern Federal District of Russia. In this investigation, gamma radiation dose-response tests were conducted with late eggs (5-d-old) and various larval stages, followed by large-scale confirmatory tests on the most tolerant stage in fruit, the fifth instar. The dose-response tests, with the target radiation dose of 20 (late eggs), 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, and 160 Gy (late fifth instars in vitro) respectively applied to all stages, showed that the tolerance to radiation increased with increasing age and developmental stage. The fifth instar (most advanced instar in fruits) was determined to be the most tolerant stage requiring an estimated minimum absorbed dose of 208.6 Gy (95% CI: 195.0, 226.5 Gy) to prevent adult emergence at 99.9968% efficacy (95% confidence level). In the confirmatory tests, irradiation was applied to 30,850 late fifth instars in apple fruits with a target dose of 200 Gy (171.6-227.8 Gy measured), but only 4 deformed adults emerged that died 2 d afterwards without laying eggs. A dose of 228 Gy may be recommended as a phytosanitary irradiation treatment under ambient atmosphere for the control of peach fruit moth on all commodities with an efficacy of 99.9902% at 95% confidence level.

  17. Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

    2005-01-01

    The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

  18. Supply-Chain Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    security score upon first submission – 3/1/2010 Measured Against CWE/SANS Top-25 Errors 24 SQL Database Query Output: All records with ID = 48983...exploitable design or coding errors • Very little data for software supply chains 8 Software Supply Chain Complexity-1 Composite inherits risk from any point... Relative Effort Operational Capabilities Knowledge of Supplier Capabilities Knowledge of Product Attributes 13 Supply-Chain Risk Categories Category

  19. Bank Liquidity Risk: Analysis and Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meilė Jasienė

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In today’s banking business, liquidity risk and its management are some of the most critical elements that underlie the stability and security of the bank’s operations, profit-making and clients confidence as well as many of the decisions that the bank makes. Managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank is not something new, yet scientific literature has not focused enough on different approaches to liquidity risk management and assessment. Furthermore, models, methodologies or policies of managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank have never been examined in detail either. The goal of this article is to analyse the liquidity risk of commercial banks as well as the possibilities of managing it and to build a liquidity risk management model for a commercial bank. The development, assessment and application of the commercial bank liquidity risk management was based on an analysis of scientific resources, a comparative analysis and mathematical calculations.

  20. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different from...... conventional ships. To reach a documented level of safety, it is therefore not possible directly to transfer experience with conventional ships. The purpose of this paper is to present new rational scientific tools to assess and quantify the collision risk associated with HSC transportation. The paper...

  1. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  2. Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    1999-01-01

    for a HSC on a given route, an analysis of the released energy during a collision, analytical closed form solutions for the absorbed energy in the structure and finally an assessment of the overall structural crushing behaviour of the vessel, including the level of acceleration and the size of the crushing...... analysis tools to quantify the effect of the high speed have been available. Instead nearly all research on ship accidents has been devoted to analysis of the consequences of given accident scenarios. The proposed collision analysis includes an analysis which determines the probability of a collision...

  3. Analysis of foreign schools of risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.M. Posokhov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to study the scientific development of foreign scientific schools of risk management and analysis of their main publications; the allocation of foreign scientific schools of risk management. The results of the analysis. Research of modern risk management is carried out leading foreign schools. The most famous school in the theory of financial risk and risk management is American school. Among its current members are D. Galai, H. Greuning, A. Damodaran, P. Jorion, J. Kallman, M. Crouhy, M. Mccarthy, R. Mark, T. Flynn and other scientists. Important contribution to the development of the theory and practice of risk management made British scientists and economists – the representatives of English Schools of Risk Management: T. Andersen, T. Bedford, A. Griffin, A. Zaman, R. Cooke, P. Sweeting, P. Hopkin, a German P. Schroder and others. A significant advance to the theory of risk management of German scientific school, based on the classic work of Zadeh has received significant results of the risk assessment using fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets. Graduate School of Risk Management of the University of Cologne is training and research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG under the project «Theoretical and Empirical Basis of Risk Management». The aim of Graduate School of Risk Management is to promote young scientists. The school risk management of the University of Cologne outstanding research conducted by German and foreign professors, such as: K. Mosler, A. Kempf, C. Kuhner, T. Hartmann-Wendels, C. Homburg, D. Hess, D. Sliwka, F. Schmid, H. Schradin. The author noted the existence and fruitful work in the capital of Switzerland Laboratory of risk management (Risk Lab Switzerland and its leading scientists: P. Embrechts, A. Gisler, M. Wüthrich, H. Bühlmann, V. Bignozzi, M. Hofert, P. Deprez, and the Basel Committee on banking supervision – Developer international standards of Basel

  4. Development of phytosanitary cold treatments for oranges infested with Bactrocera invadens and B. zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae) by comparison...existing cold treatment schedules for Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phytosanitary cold treatments are attempted for Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta, and White and Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) by comparison with Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann). Oranges were infested by puncturing holes in the peel and allowing tephritids to oviposit in the holes. The treatments were...

  5. Asbestos Workshop: Sampling, Analysis, and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    coatings Vinyl/asbestos floor tile Automatic transmission components Clutch facings Disc brake pads Drum brake linings Brake blocks Commercial and...1EMDQ March 2012 ASBESTOS WORKSHOP: SAMPLING, ANALYSIS , AND RISK ASSESSMENT Paul Black, PhD, Neptune and Company Ralph Perona, DABT, Neptune and...Sampling, Analysis , and Risk Assessment 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK

  6. Project cost analysis under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florica LUBAN

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integrated approach based on Monte Carlo simulation and Six Sigma methodology is used to analyze the risk associated with a project's total cost. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to understand the variability in total cost caused by the probabilistic cost items. By Six Sigma methodology the range of variation of the project cost can be reduced by operating on the input factors with the greatest impact on total cost to cover the variation of 6 between the limits that were established in the design phase of Six Sigma.

  7. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  8. Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

  9. Relative risk regression analysis of epidemiologic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, R L

    1985-11-01

    Relative risk regression methods are described. These methods provide a unified approach to a range of data analysis problems in environmental risk assessment and in the study of disease risk factors more generally. Relative risk regression methods are most readily viewed as an outgrowth of Cox's regression and life model. They can also be viewed as a regression generalization of more classical epidemiologic procedures, such as that due to Mantel and Haenszel. In the context of an epidemiologic cohort study, relative risk regression methods extend conventional survival data methods and binary response (e.g., logistic) regression models by taking explicit account of the time to disease occurrence while allowing arbitrary baseline disease rates, general censorship, and time-varying risk factors. This latter feature is particularly relevant to many environmental risk assessment problems wherein one wishes to relate disease rates at a particular point in time to aspects of a preceding risk factor history. Relative risk regression methods also adapt readily to time-matched case-control studies and to certain less standard designs. The uses of relative risk regression methods are illustrated and the state of development of these procedures is discussed. It is argued that asymptotic partial likelihood estimation techniques are now well developed in the important special case in which the disease rates of interest have interpretations as counting process intensity functions. Estimation of relative risks processes corresponding to disease rates falling outside this class has, however, received limited attention. The general area of relative risk regression model criticism has, as yet, not been thoroughly studied, though a number of statistical groups are studying such features as tests of fit, residuals, diagnostics and graphical procedures. Most such studies have been restricted to exponential form relative risks as have simulation studies of relative risk estimation

  10. Analysis and estimation of risk management methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kankhva Vadim Sergeevich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available At the present time risk management is an integral part of state policy in all the countries with developed market economy. Companies dealing with consulting services and implementation of the risk management systems carve out a niche. Unfortunately, conscious preventive risk management in Russia is still far from the level of standardized process of a construction company activity, which often leads to scandals and disapproval in case of unprofessional implementation of projects. The authors present the results of the investigation of the modern understanding of the existing methodology classification and offer the authorial concept of classification matrix of risk management methods. Creation of the developed matrix is based on the analysis of the method in the context of incoming and outgoing transformed information, which may include different elements of risk control stages. So the offered approach allows analyzing the possibilities of each method.

  11. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  12. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  13. Quantitative risks analysis of maritime terminal petrochemical

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferreira, Leandro Silveira; Leal, Cesar A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica (PROMEC)]. E-mail: leandro19889900@yahoo.com.br

    2008-07-01

    This work consists of the application of a computer program (RISKAN) developed for studies of quantification of industrial risks and also a revision of the models used in the program. As part the evaluation made, a test was performed with the application of the computer program to estimate the risks for a marine terminal for storage of petrochemical products, in the city of Rio Grande, Brazil. Thus, as part of the work, it was performed a Quantitative Risk Analysis associated to the terminal, both for the workers and for the population nearby, with a verification of acceptability using the tolerability limits established by the State Licensing Agency (FEPAM-RS). In the risk analysis methodology used internationally, the most used way of presenting results of social risks is in the graphical form with the use of the FN curves and for the individual risk it is common the use of the iso-risk curves traced on the map of the area where is the plant. In the beginning of the study, both a historical analysis of accidents and use of the technique of Preliminary Analysis of Risks were made in order to aid in the process of identification of the possible scenarios of accidents related to the activities in the terminal. After identifying the initiating events, their frequencies or probabilities of occurrence were estimated and followed by the calculations of the physical effects and deaths, with the use, inside the computer program, of published models of Prins Mauritz Laboratory and of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. The average social risk obtained for the external populations was of 8.7x10{sup -7} fatality.year{sup -1} and for the internal population (people working inside the terminal), 3.2x10{sup -4} fatality.year-1. The accident scenario that most contributed to the social risk was death due to exposure to the thermal radiation caused by pool fire, with 84.3% of the total estimated for external populations and 82.9% for the people inside the terminal. The

  14. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    that information and knowledge on new technology and innovation should be made available to the farmers. And also those farmers with less experience and more female should be encouraged and integrated into the agricultural production and innovation systems. Supply of inputs of the innovative facilities should...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...

  15. Competence Set Analysis Under Risk and Uncertainty

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.

  16. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

    CERN Document Server

    Bier, Vicki M

    2008-01-01

    Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

  17. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  18. Contribution of European research to risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boenke, A

    2001-12-01

    The European Commission's, Quality of Life Research Programme, Key Action 1-Health, Food & Nutrition is mission-oriented and aims, amongst other things, at providing a healthy, safe and high-quality food supply leading to reinforced consumer confidence in the safety, of European food. Its objectives also include the enhancing of the competitiveness of the European food supply. Key Action 1 is currently supporting a number of different types of European collaborative projects in the area of risk analysis. The objectives of these projects range from the development and validation of prevention strategies including the reduction of consumers risks; development and validation of new modelling approaches, harmonization of risk assessment principles methodologies and terminology; standardization of methods and systems used for the safety evaluation of transgenic food; providing of tools for the evaluation of human viral contamination of shellfish and quality control; new methodologies for assessing the potential of unintended effects of genetically modified (genetically modified) foods; development of a risk assessment model for Cryptosporidium parvum related to the food and water industries, to the development of a communication platform for genetically modified organism, producers, retailers, regulatory authorities and consumer groups to improve safety assessment procedures, risk management strategies and risk communication; development and validation of new methods for safety testing of transgenic food; evaluation of the safety and efficacy of iron supplementation in pregnant women, evaluation of the potential cancer-preventing activity of pro- and pre-biotic ('synbiotic') combinations in human volunteers. An overview of these projects is presented here.

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  20. Selected Tools for Risk Analysis in Logistics Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulińska, Ewa

    2012-03-01

    As each organization aims at managing effective logistics processes, risk factors can and should be controlled through proper system of risk management. Implementation of complex approach to risk management allows for the following: - evaluation of significant risk groups associated with logistics processes implementation, - composition of integrated strategies of risk management, - composition of tools for risk analysis in logistics processes.

  1. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mo Chongxun

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  2. Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mo Chongxun; Liu Fanggui; Yu Mei; Ma Rongyong; Sun Guikai

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

  3. Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

  4. Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2009-07-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

  5. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, K D; McKay, M K; Sattison, M.B. Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S T [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmuson, D M [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance.

  6. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  7. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  8. Conceptual issues with risk analysis in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Lévy, Sébastien

    2015-04-01

    Risk analysis is a tricky procedure, where one can easily make mistakes. Indeed, although risk equations are rather general, transferring a methodology to another context or hazard type can often lead to inaccuracies or even significant errors. To illustrate this, common mistakes made with the Swiss methodology are presented, together with possible solutions. This includes the following: Risk analysis for moving objects only takes the process dimension into account (e.g. the length of a road section potentially affected by a landslide), but not the object dimension (e.g. the cars length). This is a fair simplification as long as the object dimension is considerably smaller than the process dimension. However, when the object is large compared to the process (e.g. rockfalls on a train), the results will be wrong. This problem can be illustrated by considering two blocs. According to this methodology a 1 m diameter bloc will be twice more susceptible to reach a train than a 50 cm bloc. This is obviously not correct. When it comes to rockfalls risk analysis on roads or railway found in the literature, the bloc dimension is usually neglected, in favour of the object dimension, which is a fair assumption in this context. However, it is possible to include both dimensions by using the sum of the lengths instead of one of them. Risk analysis is usually performed using 3 different scenarios, for 3 different ranges of return periods, namely 1-30, 30-100 and 100-300 years. In order to be conservative, the operator commonly considers the magnitude of the worst event that happens with a return period included between the class bounds, which means that the operator evaluates the magnitude reached or overpassed with a return period of 30, 100 and 300 years respectively. Then, since the magnitude corresponds to the upper bounds of the classes, risk is calculated using the frequency corresponding to these return periods and not to the middle of the class (and also subtracting the

  9. Analysis of Operational Risks in Shipbuilding Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela MATEI

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Our paper emphasizes the opportunities provided both for the academic research and companies by using a proposed model of analyzing the operational risks within business in general and shipbuilding industry in particular. The model aims to display the loss distribution from the operational risk for each business line/ type of event, based on frequency and severity estimation of the events. These estimations are derived mainly from the history logs of internal loss events. The calculations extend over a certain period of time in the future with a certain level of confidence. It should also be mentioned that the proposed model estimates unexpected losses, without making any suppositions concerning the values of the expected and unexpected losses. Several ideas could be extracted by analyzing and synthesizing the theoretical models from available literature. These ideas were analyzed in order to develop a model for operational risk analysis that is adapted to shipbuilding. This paper describes a new model, which can be applied to the naval industry to quantify operational risks.

  10. Model risk analysis for risk management and option pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Due to the growing complexity of products in financial markets, market participants rely more and more on quantitative models for trading and risk management decisions. This introduces a fairly new type of risk, namely, model risk. In the first part of this thesis we investigate the quantitative inf

  11. Risk of introducing exotic fruit flies, Ceratitis capitata, Ceratitis cosyra, and Ceratitis rosa (Diptera: Tephritidae), into southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Baini; Ma, Jun; Hu, Xuenan; Liu, Haijun; Wu, Jiajiao; Chen, Hongjun; Zhang, Runjie

    2010-08-01

    Exotic fruit flies (Ceratitis spp.) are often serious agricultural pests. Here, we used, pathway analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of introduction of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch, into southern China with fruit consignments and incoming travelers. Historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature, and archives were used to set appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. Based on the ongoing quarantine/ inspection strategies of China, as well as the interception records, we estimated the annual number of each fruit fly species entering Guangdong province undetected with commercially imported fruit, and the associated risk. We also estimated the gross number of pests arriving at Guangdong ports with incoming travelers and the associated risk. Sensitivity analysis also was performed to test the impact of parameter changes and to assess how the risk could be reduced. Results showed that the risk of introduction of the three fruit fly species into southern China with fruit consignments, which are mostly transported by ship, exists but is relatively low. In contrast, the risk of introduction with incoming travelers is high and hence deserves intensive attention. Sensitivity analysis indicated that either ensuring all shipments meet current phytosanitary requirements or increasing the proportion of fruit imports sampled for inspection could substantially reduce the risk associated with commercial imports. Sensitivity analysis also provided justification for banning importation of fresh fruit by international travelers. Thus, inspection and quarantine in conjunction with intensive detection were important mitigation measures to reduce the risk of Ceratitis spp. introduced into China.

  12. Empirical analysis on risk of security investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    AN Peng; LI Sheng-hong

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyzes the theory and application of Markowitz Mean-Variance Model and CAPM model. Firstly, it explains the development process and standpoints of two models and deduces the whole process in detail. Then 30 stocks are choosen from Shangzheng 50 stocks and are testified whether the prices of Shanghai stocks conform to the two models. With the technique of time series and panel data analysis, the research on the stock risk and effective portfolio by ORIGIN and MATLAB software is conducted. The result shows that Shanghai stock market conforms to Markowitz Mean-Variance Model to a certain extent and can give investors reliable suggestion to gain higher return, but there is no positive relation between system risk and profit ratio and CAPM doesn't function well in China's security market.

  13. Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...... structuring and enriching the taxonomies of society’s critical functions and threats, which form an important part of the model. Creating terminological ontologies is a time consuming work, and therefore there is a need for automatic tools for extraction of terms, concept relations and characteristics...

  14. Comparative analysis of seismic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Chang Kyoo; Kim, Tae Woon; Hwang, Mi Jung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-07-01

    SRA methodologies are separated into SPSA and SMM. SPSA methodology that has been widely used for seismic risk analysis has two kinds of methodologies such as Zion method and SSMRP method. SPSA methodology is suitable to interfacing with the analysis of internal event. However, the results of SPSA have uncertainties because of uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis and subjective judgement. Zion method specially developed for commercial use is less expensive and less time consuming but more uncertain than SSMRP method, since the former performs the fragility analysis less in detail than the latter. SMM is impossible to interface with the analysis of internal event but the uncertainties that are occurred during seismic hazard analysis is reduced because of the screening using RLE (review level earthquake). Therefore, if SPSA-based SMM methodology is chosen to be developed, the results of SRA will be more reliable and it requires low costs and time. In addition, the new methodology will require the development of a new evaluating code for SRA. (Author) 26 refs., 25 figs., 16 tabs.

  15. Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R. (NUS Corporation, 910 Clopper Road, Gaithersburg, Maryland 20877-0962 (USA)); Englehart, D.R.W. (Office of New Production Reactors, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585 (USA))

    1991-01-01

    The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

  16. FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Robin K.

    1976-01-01

    A program for seismic risk analysis is described which combines generality of application, efficiency and accuracy of operation, and the advantage of small storage requirements. The theoretical basis for the program is first reviewed, and the computational algorithms used to apply this theory are described. The information required for running the program is listed. Published attenuation functions describing the variation with earthquake magnitude and distance of expected values for various ground motion parameters are summarized for reference by the program user. Finally, suggestions for use of the program are made, an example problem is described (along with example problem input and output) and the program is listed.

  17. 14 CFR 417.225 - Debris risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION LICENSING LAUNCH SAFETY Flight Safety Analysis § 417.225 Debris risk analysis. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that the risk to the public potentially exposed to inert and explosive debris hazards from any one flight of a launch vehicle satisfies the public risk criterion of...

  18. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  19. The case for a generic phytosanitary irradiation dose of 400 Gy for Lepidoptera that infest shipped commodities as pupae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallman, Guy J; Parker, Andrew C; Blackburn, Carl M

    2013-04-01

    The pros and cons of a generic phytosanitary irradiation dose against all Lepidoptera pupae on all commodities are discussed. The measure of efficacy is to prevent the F1 generation from hatching (F1 egg hatch) when late pupae are irradiated. More data exist for this measure than for others studied, and it is also commercially tenable (i.e., prevention of adult emergence would require a high dose not tolerated by fresh commodities). The dose required to prevent F1 egg hatch provides a liberal margin of security for various reasons. A point at issue is that correctly irradiated adults could be capable of flight and thus be found in survey traps in importing countries resulting in costly and unnecessary regulatory action. However, this possibility would be rare and should not be a barrier to the adoption of this generic treatment. The literature was thoroughly examined and only studies that could reasonably satisfy criteria of acceptable irradiation and evaluation methodology, proper age of pupae, and adequate presentation of raw data were accepted. Based on studies with 34 species in nine families, we suggest an efficacious dose of 400 Gy. However, large-scale confirmatory testing (> or = 30,000 individuals) has only been reported for one species. A dose as low as 350 Gy might suffice if results of more large-scale studies were available or the measure of efficacy were extended beyond prevention of F1 egg hatch, but data to defend measures of efficacy beyond F1 egg hatch are scarce and more would need to be generated.

  20. An Additional Phytosanitary Cold Treatment Against Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) in 'Oroblanco' Citrus Fruit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazit, Yoav; Kaspi, Roy

    2017-04-01

    For 'Oroblanco' ('Sweetie'), the sweet seedless pummelo-grapefruit hybrid, when exported from Israel to Japan, the standard cold treatment against Ceratitis capitata (Wied.) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is conducted at ≤ 1.5 °C, for 16 d. In recent years, the transportation means of exported citrus was changed from reefer vessels to individual refrigerated containers, where the fruit bulk is relatively small and may be exposed to temperature fluctuations and to the risk of chilling injuries. To reduce this risk, Israel proposed to Japan to increase the treatment temperature and extend its duration to 2.2 °C and 18 d, respectively. This study shows that the proposed treatment effectively kills the third instar larva of C. capitata, in Oroblanco. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Adapting veterinary infrastructures to meet the challenges of globalisation and the requirements of the World Trade Organization Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiermann, A

    2004-04-01

    To maximise the benefits of globalisation, countries and their stakeholders must become familiar with and adhere to the rights and obligations set out by the World Trade Organization under the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. Furthermore, for trade in animals and animal products, they must adhere to the standards, guidelines and recommendations established by the OIE (World organisation for animal health), which also encourages participation of countries in the standard-setting process. Only after implementing these requirements and strengthening veterinary infrastructures and surveillance and monitoring systems, will countries be able to fully benefit from the new international trade rules.

  2. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    In response to the challenges of conducting traditional human health and ecological risk assessment for nanomaterials (NM), a number of alternative frameworks have been proposed for NM risk analysis. This paper evaluates various risk analysis frameworks proposed for NM based on a number of criteria...

  3. Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guixian Dong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

  4. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  5. Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

  6. Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

  7. A new approach in the monitoring of the phytosanitary conditions of forests: the case of oak and beech stands in the Sicilian Regional Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinzia Rizza

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the health conditions of oak and beech stands in the three Regional Parks of Sicily (Etna, Madonie and Nebrodi. A total of 81 sampling areas were investigated, 54 in oak stands and 27 in beech stands. The phytosanitary conditions of each tree within the respective sampling area was expressed with a synthetic index namely phytosanitary class (PC. Oak stands showed severe symptoms of decline, with 85% of the sampling areas including symptomatic trees. In general, beech stands were in better condition, with the exception of Nebrodi Park, where trees showed severe symptoms of decline. On oak trees, infections of fungal pathogens were also observed, including Biscogniauxia mediterranea, Polyporus sp., Fistulina hepatica, Mycrosphaera alphitoides and Armillaria sp. By contrast, on beech trees Biscogniauxia nummularia, Fomes fomentarius and Neonectria radicicola were recognized. Furthermore, twenty-two permanent sampling areas were delimited with the aim of monitoring regularly the health conditions of forests in these three parks.

  8. Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

  9. Seismic vulnerability assessments in risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    The assessment of seismic vulnerability is a critical issue within natural and technological risk analysis. In general, there are three common types of methods used for development of vulnerability functions of different elements at risk: empirical, analytical and expert estimations. The paper addresses the empirical methods for seismic vulnerability estimation for residential buildings and industrial facilities. The results of engineering analysis of past earthquake consequences, as well as the statistical data on buildings behavior during strong earthquakes presented in the different seismic intensity scales, are used to verify the regional parameters of mathematical models in order to simulate physical and economic vulnerability for different building types classified according to seismic scale MMSK-86. Verified procedure has been used to estimate the physical and economic vulnerability of buildings and constructions against earthquakes for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area, which are characterized by rather high level of seismic activity and high population density. In order to estimate expected damage states to buildings and constructions in the case of the earthquakes according to the OSR-97B (return period T=1,000 years) within big cities and towns, they were divided into unit sites and their coordinates were presented as dots located in the centers of unit sites. Then the indexes obtained for each unit site were summed up. The maps of physical vulnerability zoning for Northern Caucasus Federal region of the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area includes two elements: percent of different damage states for settlements with number of inhabitants less than 1,000 and vulnerability for cities and towns with number of inhabitants more than 1,000. The hypsometric scale is used to represent both elements on the maps. Taking into account the size of oil pipe line systems located in the highly active seismic zones in

  10. Risk analysis of colorectal cancer incidence by gene expression analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangkuan, Wei-Chuan; Lin, Hung-Che; Chang, Yu-Tien; Jian, Chen-En; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Chen, Kang-Hua; Liu, Ya-Fang; Hsu, Huan-Ming; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Yao, Chung-Tay

    2017-01-01

    Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading cancers worldwide. Several studies have performed microarray data analyses for cancer classification and prognostic analyses. Microarray assays also enable the identification of gene signatures for molecular characterization and treatment prediction. Objective Microarray gene expression data from the online Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were used to to distinguish colorectal cancer from normal colon tissue samples. Methods We collected microarray data from the GEO database to establish colorectal cancer microarray gene expression datasets for a combined analysis. Using the Prediction Analysis for Microarrays (PAM) method and the GSEA MSigDB resource, we analyzed the 14,698 genes that were identified through an examination of their expression values between normal and tumor tissues. Results Ten genes (ABCG2, AQP8, SPIB, CA7, CLDN8, SCNN1B, SLC30A10, CD177, PADI2, and TGFBI) were found to be good indicators of the candidate genes that correlate with CRC. From these selected genes, an average of six significant genes were obtained using the PAM method, with an accuracy rate of 95%. The results demonstrate the potential of utilizing a model with the PAM method for data mining. After a detailed review of the published reports, the results confirmed that the screened candidate genes are good indicators for cancer risk analysis using the PAM method. Conclusions Six genes were selected with 95% accuracy to effectively classify normal and colorectal cancer tissues. We hope that these results will provide the basis for new research projects in clinical practice that aim to rapidly assess colorectal cancer risk using microarray gene expression analysis. PMID:28229027

  11. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-19

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  12. Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

    2016-04-01

    Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

  13. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxime Frydman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  14. A comparative analysis of risk and quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynette, Jennifer Elyse

    2017-01-01

    independently, decision making and judgement processes have the potential to be positively impacted by furthering research and developing a deeper understanding of these constructs. By understanding risk management principles and combining that with a quality systems approach, decision making can be improved......Within the field of emergency management and fire response, risk and quality are conceptualized to some degree in every response effort. Quality is viewed as a relatively new concept within the field of emergency management and fire response. Whereas, within this same field the concept of risk...... interest to the field of emergency management and fire response, includes the methods used by risk research to measure risk in the field, and how that concept can be utilized for future research focusing on quality in the same field. By analyzing the subjective assessments that involve risk and quality...

  15. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence comp

  16. Network analysis using organizational risk analyzer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The tool system of the organizational risk analyzer (ORA) to study the network of East Turkistan terrorists is selected. The model of the relationships among its personnel, knowledge, resources and task entities is represented by the meta-matrix in ORA, with which to analyze the risks and vulnerabilities of organizational structure quantitatively, and obtain the last vulnerabilities and risks of the organization. Case study in this system shows that it should be a shortcut to destroy effectively the network...

  17. Mixture Distribution Approach In Financial Risk Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kocak, Keziban; Calis, Nazif; Unal, Deniz

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, major changes occurred in the prices of stock exchange appeared the necessity of measuring the financial risk. Nowadays, Value-atRisk (VaR) is often used to calculate the financial risk. Parametric methods which need normality are mostly used in the calculation of VaR.If the financial data does not fit the normal distribution, mixture of normal distribution models can be fitted to this data. In this study, the financial risk is calculated by using normal mixture distribution ...

  18. Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cagatay Pamukcu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

  19. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure....

  20. Produtividade e principais problemas fitossanitários de cultivares de batata em Sergipe Yield and phytosanitary problems of potato cultivars in Sergipe, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Urbana Corrêa Nunes

    2002-09-01

    in June and harvested in September. After harvest, total yield, commercial yield (healthy tubers with 40 g minimum weight and losses caused by scab, soft-rot, nematodes, and soil insects were evaluated. The analysis of variance for total and commercial yield of tubers highlighted Baronesa (33.7 kg/ha, Monalisa (32.7 kg/ha, and Elvira (31.4 kg/ha as the most productive cvs. The commercial yields varied from 3.4 t/ha to 22.a t/ha. The cvs. Elvira and Monalisa, yielded 22.5 kg/ha and 20.5 kg/ha, respectively. Only three insecticides applications were necessary. Scab (13.1% and nematode (7.2% were the main phytosanitary problems affecting Elvira cv. In relation to Monalisa, pin larvae soil insect (15.1%, scab (12.0%, and nematode (9.7% were the main causes of yield loss. Because of its best commercial tuber characteristics Monalisa has been planted instead of Bintje and Baraka, both commonly used in the region. The results indicate the suitability of Itabaiana region for potato production.

  1. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme `Risk Analysis`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L. [eds.] [University of Groningen, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Groningen (Netherlands); Van Ham, J. [TNO Institute for Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands); Olsthoorn, A.A. [VUA, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs.

  2. Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

    2015-09-01

    We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kenett, Ron

    2010-01-01

    The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

  4. Analysis of Operational Risks in Shipbuilding Industry

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Daniela MATEI; Mioara CHIRITA

    2012-01-01

    Our paper emphasizes the opportunities provided both for the academic research and companies by using a proposed model of analyzing the operational risks within business in general and shipbuilding...

  5. The Network's Data Security Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emil BURTESCU

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Establishing the networks security risk can be a very difficult operation especially for the small companies which, from financial reasons can't appeal at specialist in this domain, or for the medium or large companies that don't have experience. The following method proposes not to use complex financial calculus to determine the loss level and the value of impact making the determination of risk level a lot easier.

  6. The Operational Risk – Comparative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In many cases operational risks tend to be underestimated, considering that the losses they cause are generally minor can’t threatening the survival of a bank. Losses resulting from these events come from a complex interaction between organizational factors, personal and market that do not fit into a simple classification scheme. Observing what happened in the past we can say that operational risk is an important question of the financial losses in the banking sector.

  7. Risk profile of microbiological and chemical contamination in the production chain of nine horticultural products for fresh consumption of a group of agricultural companies in the Costa Rican Central Valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Vargas Hernández

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The risk of microbiological or chemical contamination was determined in each of the processes of the production system of produce for fresh consumption, in a population of 164 agricultural companies in the central valley of Costa Rica. The risk quantification was calculated using the responses to a 46-item survey conducted with the managers of the companies included in the study. The responses to the 46 items were grouped according to the production process; the risk contamination calculation formula validated by the authors in another study was used to obtain the risk value per process. The microbiological or chemical contamination risk results were calculated for the land preparation and planting process, cultural management of the crop, human factor performing the cultural management of the crop, phytosanitary control, harvesting, packaging, and the human factor involved in packaging. The risk analysis results indicate that the human factor participating in the packaging obtains the highest risk rating, followed by the cultural management of the crop and, in third place, by the harvesting process. In all processes where the risk was quantified, the results showed values close to or greater than 50 in a 0 to 100 risk scale. These results should alert producers and consumers of produce for fresh consumption in the analyzed population. The effect of the buyer on the packaging risk values was also observed; when the producers are supermarket chain suppliers the risk values are lower as compared to those of producers who are not supermarket chain suppliers.

  8. Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

  9. A Literature Review on Risk Analysis of Production Location Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Dadpouri, Mohammad; Nunna, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    This report is the result of a master thesis with a focus on risk analysis of production location decisions. The project is a part of “PROLOC-manufacturing footprint during the product’s life cycle”. The main aim of this thesis is to point out how current applicable risk analysis techniques evaluate the risks involved in production location decisions and then underline the most important risks involved in production location decisions and elicit strengths and weaknesses of these methods.A sys...

  10. Maternal migration and autism risk: systematic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crafa, Daina; Warfa, Nasir

    2015-02-01

    Autism (AUT) is one of the most prevalent developmental disorders emerging during childhood, and can be amongst the most incapacitating mental disorders. Some individuals with AUT require a lifetime of supervised care. Autism Speaks reported estimated costs for 2012 at £34 billion in the UK; and $3.2 million-$126 billion in the US, Australia and Canada. Ethnicity and migration experiences appear to increase risks of AUT and relate to underlying biological risk factors. Sociobiological stress factors can affect the uterine environment, or relate to stress-induced epigenetic changes during pregnancy and delivery. Epigenetic risk factors associated with AUT also include poor pregnancy conditions, low birth weight, and congenital malformation. Recent studies report that children from migrant communities are at higher risk of AUT than children born to non-migrant mothers, with the exception of Hispanic children. This paper provides the first systematic review into prevalence and predictors of AUT with a particular focus on maternal migration stressors and epigenetic risk factors. AUT rates appear higher in certain migrant communities, potentially relating to epigenetic changes after stressful experiences. Although AUT remains a rare disorder, failures to recognize its public health urgency and local community needs continue to leave certain cultural groups at a disadvantage.

  11. Ukrainian Sanitary and Phytosanitary Laws Approximation to EU Acquis Under Association Agreement Including Agreement on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kepych Taras

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the achievements to date in legal approximation in the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS field in Ukraine. Effective regulatory approximation in the SPS field was critical to anchoring the reform process in Ukraine and to fostering further progress in EU’s relations with this Eastern Partnership (EaP country. This paper highlights three major problems in Ukraine that were hindering reform in the SPS field: inconsistency between Ukrainian and EU food safety legislation, lack of uniformity between animal health law regimes, absence of a single SPS regulator. Legal implementation of approximated legislation still remains as key challenge. The paper offers recommendations to improve the Ukraine’s approach so that the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA is part of the Association Agreement (AA between the EU and the Republic of Ukraine could fulfill its potential.

  12. Development of phytosanitary cold treatments for oranges infested with Bactrocera invadens and Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae) by comparison with existing cold treatment schedules for Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallman, Guy J; Myers, Scott W; El-Wakkad, Mokhtar F; Tadrous, Meshil D; Jessup, Andrew J

    2013-08-01

    Phytosanitary cold treatments were tested for Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta, and White and Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) using comparisons with Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann). Oranges were infested by puncturing holes in the peel and allowing tephritids to oviposit in the holes. The treatments were initiated when the larvae reached late third instar because previous research had shown that stage to be the most cold tolerant for all three species. Results show that B. invadens is not more cold tolerant than C. capitata and B. zonata at 1.0 +/- 0.1 degrees C and lend support to the use of C. capitata cold treatment schedules for B. invadens. It cannot be concluded that B. zonata is not more cold tolerant than C. capitata.

  13. Risk factors for retained surgical items: a meta-analysis and proposed risk stratification system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffatt-Bruce, Susan D; Cook, Charles H; Steinberg, Steven M; Stawicki, Stanislaw P

    2014-08-01

    Retained surgical items (RSI) are designated as completely preventable "never events". Despite numerous case reports, clinical series, and expert opinions few studies provide quantitative insight into RSI risk factors and their relative contributions to the overall RSI risk profile. Existing case-control studies lack the ability to reliably detect clinically important differences within the long list of proposed risks. This meta-analysis examines the best available data for RSI risk factors, seeking to provide a clinically relevant risk stratification system. Nineteen candidate studies were considered for this meta-analysis. Three retrospective, case-control studies of RSI-related risk factors contained suitable group comparisons between patients with and without RSI, thus qualifying for further analysis. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis 2.0 (BioStat, Inc, Englewood, NJ) software was used to analyze the following "common factor" variables compiled from the above studies: body-mass index, emergency procedure, estimated operative blood loss >500 mL, incorrect surgical count, lack of surgical count, >1 subprocedure, >1 surgical team, nursing staff shift change, operation "afterhours" (i.e., between 5 PM and 7 AM), operative time, trainee presence, and unexpected intraoperative factors. We further stratified resulting RSI risk factors into low, intermediate, and high risk. Despite the fact that only between three and six risk factors were associated with increased RSI risk across the three studies, our analysis of pooled data demonstrates that seven risk factors are significantly associated with increased RSI risk. Variables found to elevate the RSI risk include intraoperative blood loss >500 mL (odds ratio [OR] 1.6); duration of operation (OR 1.7); >1 subprocedure (OR 2.1); lack of surgical counts (OR 2.5); >1 surgical team (OR 3.0); unexpected intraoperative factors (OR 3.4); and incorrect surgical count (OR 6.1). Changes in nursing staff, emergency surgery, body

  14. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  15. Risk analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, Alessia; Carcassi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Developing a future sustainable refuelling station network is the next important step to establish hydrogen as a fuel for vehicles and related services. Such stations will most likely be integrated in existing refuelling stations and result in multi-fuel storages with a variety of fuels being...... assessment methodologies, and how functional models could support coherent risk and sustainability (Risk Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment /Life Cycle Costing) assessments, in order to find optimal solutions for the development of the infrastructure on a regional or national level....

  16. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Norman, Thomas L

    2009-01-01

    Explains how to evaluate the appropriateness of security countermeasures, from a cost-effectiveness perspective. This title guides readers from basic principles to complex processes in a step-by-step fashion, evaluating DHS-approved risk assessment methods, including CARVER, API/NPRA, RAMCAP, and various Sandia methodologies

  17. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  18. Panel Random Analysis of Credit Risk in Business

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Wei; ZHOU Yue-mei; ZHOU Ke

    2005-01-01

    Market economy is a kind of credit economy.The survival and development of an individual in the society are closely related with his credit. Without credit, market economy can not continue, the society can hardly run in good order and good health. This paper defines the basic concept of trade credit risk with its manifestation and brings forward the basic mode quantitatively analyzing the credit risk. The data structure of information is analyzed, the decomposition model of credit risk is structured and with the aid of statistical analysis, including regression analysis, analysis of variance, test of hypothesized, the description, classification, certification and confirmation of credit risk model are completed, then, we can describe and control the credit risk with the model to provide basis when building credit support system in today's society.

  19. A risk analysis model in concurrent engineering product development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui

    2010-09-01

    Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.

  20. Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk Based Inspection analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovhus, Torben Lund; Hillier, Elizabeth; Andersen, Erlend S.

    2016-01-01

    Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. In order to manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk Based Inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the of......Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. In order to manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk Based Inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used...... in the offshore industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental and business related issues....... Risk is a measure of possible loss or injury, and is expressed as the combination of the incident probability and its consequences. A component may have several associated risk levels depending on the different consequences of failure and the different probabilities of those failures occurring...

  1. The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

    2008-05-01

    Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

  2. Methodology for risk analysis of projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roșu Maria Magdalena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk in the organization activity as an economic and social system open, adaptive, with varying degrees of permeability to the influences from the current business environment, which is increasingly unpredictable and in which the only constant is the change, refers to the probability of not complying with the objectives set in terms of performance, execution and cost. The insufficient application of the recognized project management methodologies can be one of the main causes of projects failures in the organization with major influences on the activity efficiency and the performance recorded. Therefore, the methodology proposed in the paper, wants to be an effective tool, a formalized risk management tool, considered as a cyclical process, with several distinct phases, indispensable to the current organizational practice which should contribute to optimizing the project performance and its successful completion.

  3. Imposed risk controversies: a critical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sauer, G.L.

    The author focuses on risk controversies where someone in one locale is concerned about being seriously injured as a result of human activities carried on elsewhere. Discussion is limited to unintentional risks, such as, nuclear power plants, dams, toxic pollutants and biological laboratories containing virulent organisms. He attempts to fashion a new judicial institution for settling disputes where liability is not well defined. The proposed system is a two-step process. The first is arbitration where defendant participation is voluntary. If judgment at first stage is against the defendant the system progresses to the second stage; otherwise the process is completed. The second stage is a full-scale hearing where burden of proof shifts to defendant. (PSB)

  4. Comparative Analysis and Evaluation of Existing Risk Management Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this article lies on the specific features of the existing software packages for risk management differentiating three categories. Representative for these categories we consider the Crystal Ball, Haufe Risikomanager and MIS - Risk Management solutions, outlining the strenghts and weaknesses in a comparative analysis.

  5. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  6. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  7. USAWC Coronary Risk and Fitness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-04

    Dr. Wood and associates of the Stanford Heart Disease Prevention Program compared the lipopro- tein patterns of sedentary and active men 35-39 years... insulates the body and increases the risk of heat exhaus- tion and heat stroke; it lowers the body’s efficient use of oxy- gen and reduces an...around the heart and throughout the body, and at the same time keep undiseased blood vessels ,,24 soft and pliable . It has also been established that

  8. Schedule Risk Analysis Simulator using Beta Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isha Sharma,

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an application of simulation and Modelling in Software risk management. This paper describes a simulation based software risk management tool which helps manager to identifyhigh risk areas of software process. In this paper an endeavour has been made to build up a Stochastic Simulator which helps in decision making to identify the critical activities which are given due priorities during the development of Software Project. In response to new information or revised estimates, it may be necessary to reassign resources, cancel optional tasks, etc. Project management tools that make projections while treating decisions about tasks and resource assignments as static will not yield realistic results. The usual PERT procedure may lead to overly optimistic results as many pass which are not critical but slightly shorter than critical on the basis of estimated activity duration or average durations.Due to randomness of durations, these pass under some combination of activity durations, could become longer than the average longest path. Such paths would be ignored while using the PERT technique onthe basis of the average durations. In order to overcome this problem and be more reasonable, the said Stochastic Simulator has been designed by generating random samples from a specific probabilitydistribution associated with that particular activity of SPM. The said simulator is also not bugged with overly estimated results.

  9. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  10. Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_161117.html Software Speeds Up Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk: Study ... 22, 2016 THURSDAY, Sept. 22, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Software that quickly analyzes mammograms and patient history to ...

  11. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

    2012-01-01

    Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

  12. Risk Factor Analysis for Oral Precancer among Slum Dwellers in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rajasthan Dental College, Jaipur, Rajasthan, 1Dental Wing, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Bhopal,. 4Department of Public ... Keywords: Oral cancer, Risk factor analysis, Slum dwellers. Access this .... hygiene aid used in India.

  13. American Airlines Propeller STOL Transport Economic Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransone, B.

    1972-01-01

    A Monte Carlo risk analysis on the economics of STOL transports in air passenger traffic established the probability of making the expected internal rate of financial return, or better, in a hypothetical regular Washington/New York intercity operation.

  14. DOE 2009 Geothermal Risk Analysis: Methodology and Results (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, K. R.; Augustine, C.; Anderson, A.

    2010-02-01

    This presentation summarizes the methodology and results for a probabilistic risk analysis of research, development, and demonstration work-primarily for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS)-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program.

  15. Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...

  16. Cardiometabolic risk in Canada: a detailed analysis and position paper by the cardiometabolic risk working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leiter, Lawrence A; Fitchett, David H; Gilbert, Richard E; Gupta, Milan; Mancini, G B John; McFarlane, Philip A; Ross, Robert; Teoh, Hwee; Verma, Subodh; Anand, Sonia; Camelon, Kathryn; Chow, Chi-Ming; Cox, Jafna L; Després, Jean-Pierre; Genest, Jacques; Harris, Stewart B; Lau, David C W; Lewanczuk, Richard; Liu, Peter P; Lonn, Eva M; McPherson, Ruth; Poirier, Paul; Qaadri, Shafiq; Rabasa-Lhoret, Rémi; Rabkin, Simon W; Sharma, Arya M; Steele, Andrew W; Stone, James A; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Tobe, Sheldon; Ur, Ehud

    2011-01-01

    The concepts of "cardiometabolic risk," "metabolic syndrome," and "risk stratification" overlap and relate to the atherogenic process and development of type 2 diabetes. There is confusion about what these terms mean and how they can best be used to improve our understanding of cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention. With the objectives of clarifying these concepts and presenting practical strategies to identify and reduce cardiovascular risk in multiethnic patient populations, the Cardiometabolic Working Group reviewed the evidence related to emerging cardiovascular risk factors and Canadian guideline recommendations in order to present a detailed analysis and consolidated approach to the identification and management of cardiometabolic risk. The concepts related to cardiometabolic risk, pathophysiology, and strategies for identification and management (including health behaviours, pharmacotherapy, and surgery) in the multiethnic Canadian population are presented. "Global cardiometabolic risk" is proposed as an umbrella term for a comprehensive list of existing and emerging factors that predict cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes. Health behaviour interventions (weight loss, physical activity, diet, smoking cessation) in people identified at high cardiometabolic risk are of critical importance given the emerging crisis of obesity and the consequent epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Vascular protective measures (health behaviours for all patients and pharmacotherapy in appropriate patients) are essential to reduce cardiometabolic risk, and there is growing consensus that a multidisciplinary approach is needed to adequately address cardiometabolic risk factors. Health care professionals must also consider risk factors related to ethnicity in order to appropriately evaluate everyone in their diverse patient populations.

  17. Fuzzy Logic Application in Risk Analysis Due to Lightning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yelennis Godoy Valladares

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the application of the fuzzy logic to the analysis of risk on the base of the approaches picked up in the IEC 62305-2, with the objective of developing a simple tool, of easy use and understanding, which offers the designer the possibility of a bigger interpretation to the subjectivity wrapped in the analysis using the language to evaluate the characteristics of the installation in study and the risk of lightning impact.

  18. 生物安全議定書下的事前告知同意程序與WTO之SPS協定中有關動植物進口程序的關係 ― 兼論台灣與議定書締約國訂定LMOs之跨境運輸協定 An Analysis on the relationship between sanitary and phytosanitary import procedures under the SPS Agreement of the WTO and the Advanced Informed Agreement procedures of the Biosafety Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    施文真 Yu Wen-Chen Shih

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available 基因改造作物對於糧食安全以及生態環境的影響與衝擊目前係一尚無定論的議題。以生物多樣性資源的保育為出發點的「生物安全議定書」(以下簡稱議定書),希望透過事前告知同意程序的制度設計,替締約國在初次引進改性活生物體時,有一套可以依循的程序規範;在相同的國際管制帄台上,為預防外來種所造成對於一國環境生態的衝擊,WTO 也授權各國,依據「食品安全檢驗與動植物防疫檢疫措施協定」(SPS 協定)的規定,可以透過動植物檢疫措施的制訂以保護國內的生態系。兩套的進口管制制度是否相容,牽涉到國際環境公約與WTO 之間的關係與互動的議題,對於一國國內的生態環境以及生物科技發展也有其關聯性,因此,引起不少學者以及實務工作者的討論。本文將嘗詴著由程序面的觀察,討論在進口管制的程序上,比較議定書以及SPS 協定中的程序規範,找出是否可以透過進口管制程序的程序設計來避免兩套管制體系的衝突。此外,由於台灣並非生物安全議定書的締約國,依據議定書的規定,締約國得與非締約國針對改性活生物體的跨境運輸簽訂雙邊、區域性或是多邊的協定,本文也將針對議定書中此一規定,討論台灣在面對談判此等協定時,應採取的立場。 The impact of genetically modified crops on food supply security and on the environment has been an on-going debate. From the viewpoint of biodiversity conservation, the Biosafety Protocol provides procedural-based rules to regulate the first transboundary movement of living modified organisms (LMOs through a set of advanced informed agreement (AIA procedures. On the other hand, the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement of the World Trade Organisation (WTO authorizes its Member to promulgate

  19. Integrating market chain assessments with zoonoses risk analysis in two cross-border pig value chains in Lao PDR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okello, Anna; Tiemann, Tassilo Tamino; Inthavong, Phouth; Khamlome, Boualam; Phengvilaysouk, Ammaly; Keonouchanh, Soukanh; Keokhamphet, Chattouphone; Somoulay, Virasack; Blaszak, Kate; Blacksell, Stuart; Okello, Walter; Allen, John

    2017-03-25

    Lao PDR's recent accession to the World Trade Organization necessitates a greater understanding of the patterns and risk of livestock production in order to better align national policy with the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This eco-health study describes the integration of market chain and zoonoses risk analyses at two strategic cross border points between Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Information gained from smallholder farmer/trader interviews was integrated with serological surveys for pig-associated zoonoses - including hepatitis E virus, Taenia solium and Trichinella - to identify potential linkages between disease risk and pig production and slaughter in low input systems common across the country. Trichinella and HEV exposure was high in both humans and pigs in both study areas, significantly associated with pig slaughter and the subsequent consumption and handling of raw pork products. T. solium demonstrated a strong geographical and ethnic association with the northern study area bordering Vietnam. With the right knowledge and accessible, affordable inputs, the majority of smallholder farmers indicated a willingness to invest more in pig production, which could simultaneously improve livelihoods and decrease exposure to HEV, Trichinella and T. solium through increased access to formal markets and an improved slaughter processes. Assessing disease risk in the context of potential economic and cultural drivers of transmission highlights the importance of a systems-based approach to the detection and control of zoonotic disease, improving the understanding of the Lao PDR livestock sector in accordance with the country's recent accession to the World Trade Organization.

  20. THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

  1. Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

  2. Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kar-Ming

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a systems engineering approach to resource planning by integrating mathematical modeling and constrained optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to generate an optimal task plan in the presence of uncertainties.

  3. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  4. A Project Risk Ranking Approach Based on Set Pair Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Feng; Chen Yingwu

    2006-01-01

    Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is a new methodology to describe and process system uncertainty. It is different from stochastic or fuzzy methods in reasoning and operation, and it has been applied in many areas recently. In this paper, the application of SPA in risk ranking is presented, which includes review of risk ranking, introduction of Connecting Degree (CD) that is a key role in SPA., Arithmetic and Tendency Grade (TG) of CDs, and a risk ranking approach proposed. Finally a case analysis is presented to illustrate the reasonability of this approach. It is found that this approach is very convenient to operate, while the ranking result is more comprehensible.

  5. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure.

  6. APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andi Andi

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

  7. The semantic distinction between "risk" and "danger": a linguistic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boholm, Max

    2012-02-01

    The analysis combines frame semantic and corpus linguistic approaches in analyzing the role of agency and decision making in the semantics of the words "risk" and "danger" (both nominal and verbal uses). In frame semantics, the meanings of "risk" and of related words, such as "danger," are analyzed against the background of a specific cognitive-semantic structure (a frame) comprising frame elements such as Protagonist, Bad Outcome, Decision, Possession, and Source. Empirical data derive from the British National Corpus (100 million words). Results indicate both similarities and differences in use. First, both "risk" and "danger" are commonly used to represent situations having potential negative consequences as the result of agency. Second, "risk" and "danger," especially their verbal uses (to risk, to endanger), differ in agent-victim structure, i.e., "risk" is used to express that a person affected by an action is also the agent of the action, while "endanger" is used to express that the one affected is not the agent. Third, "risk," but not "danger," tends to be used to represent rational and goal-directed action. The results therefore to some extent confirm the analysis of "risk" and "danger" suggested by German sociologist Niklas Luhmann. As a point of discussion, the present findings arguably have implications for risk communication.

  8. Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

    1976-11-01

    Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

  9. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS ECTOPIC PREGNANCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Santoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Ectopic pregnancy is a pregnancy with extrauterine implantation. This situation is gynecologic emergency that contributes to maternal mortality. Therefore, early recognition, based on identification of the causes of ectopic pregnancy risk factors, is needed. Methods: The design descriptive observational. The samples were pregnant women who had ectopic pregnancy at Maternity Room, Emergency Unit, Dr. Soetomo Hospital, Surabaya, from 1 July 2008 to 1 July 2010. Sampling technique was total sampling using medical records. Result: Patients with ectopic pregnancy were 99 individuals out of 2090 pregnant women who searched for treatment in Dr. Soetomo Hospital. However, only 29 patients were accompanied with traceable risk factors. Discussion:. Most ectopic pregnancies were in the age group of 26-30 years, comprising 32 patients (32.32%, then in age groups of 31–35 years as many as 25 patients (25.25%, 18 patients in age group 21–25 years (18.18%, 17 patients in age group 36–40 years (17.17%, 4 patients in age group 41 years and more (4.04%, and the least was in age group of 16–20 years with 3 patients (3.03%. A total of 12 patients with ectopic pregnancy (41.38% had experience of abortion and 6 patients (20.69% each in groups of patients with ectopic pregnancy who used family planning, in those who used family planning as well as ectopic pregnancy patients with history of surgery. There were 2 patients (6.90% of the group of patients ectopic pregnancy who had history of surgery and history of abortion. The incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy was 4.73%, mostly in the second gravidity (34.34%, whereas the nulliparous have the highest prevalence of 39.39%. Acquired risk factors, i.e. history of operations was 10.34%, patients with family planning 20.69%, patients with history of abortion 41.38%, patients with history of abortion and operation 6.90% patients with family and history of abortion was 20.69%.

  10. Development of a risk-analysis model. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-01

    This report consists of a main body, which provides a presentation of risk analysis and its general and specific application to the needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy; and several case studies employing the risk-analysis model developed. The highlights include a discussion of how risk analysis is currently used in the private, regulated, and public sectors and how this methodology can be employed to meet the policy-analysis needs of the Office of Buildings and Community Systems of the Department of Energy (BCS/DOE). After a review of the primary methodologies available for risk analysis, it was determined that Monte Carlo simulation techniques provide the greatest degree of visibility into uncertainty in the decision-making process. Although the data-collection requirements can be demanding, the benefits, when compared to other methods, are substantial. The data-collection problem can be significantly reduced, without sacrificing proprietary-information rights, if prior arrangements are made with RD and D contractors to provide responses to reasonable requests for base-case data. A total of three case studies were performed on BCS technologies: a gas-fired heat pump; a 1000 ton/day anaerobic digestion plant; and a district heating and cooling system. The three case studies plus the risk-analysis methodology were issued as separate reports. It is concluded that, based on the overall research of risk analysis and the case-study experience, that the risk-analysis methodology has significant potential as a policy-evaluation tool within BCS.

  11. Risk Assessment of Infrastructure System of Systems with Precursor Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhenyu; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2016-08-01

    Physical infrastructure systems are commonly composed of interconnected and interdependent subsystems, which in their essence constitute system of systems (S-o-S). System owners and policy researchers need tools to foresee potential emergent forced changes and to understand their impact so that effective risk management strategies can be developed. We develop a systemic framework for precursor analysis to support the design of an effective and efficient precursor monitoring and decision support system with the ability to (i) identify and prioritize indicators of evolving risks of system failure; and (ii) evaluate uncertainties in precursor analysis to support informed and rational decision making. This integrated precursor analysis framework is comprised of three processes: precursor identification, prioritization, and evaluation. We use an example of a highway bridge S-o-S to demonstrate the theories and methodologies of the framework. Bridge maintenance processes involve many interconnected and interdependent functional subsystems and decision-making entities and bridge failure can have broad social and economic consequences. The precursor analysis framework, which constitutes an essential part of risk analysis, examines the impact of various bridge inspection and maintenance scenarios. It enables policy researchers and analysts who are seeking a risk perspective on bridge infrastructure in a policy setting to develop more risk informed policies and create guidelines to efficiently allocate limited risk management resources and mitigate severe consequences resulting from bridge failures.

  12. From risk for trauma to unintentional injury risk: falls--a concept analysis. Nursing Diagnosis Extension and Classification Research Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenfelder, D P; Crowell, C M

    1999-01-01

    Concept analysis of the nursing diagnosis risk for trauma. To examine the nursing diagnosis risk for trauma and to specify the risk factors for falling. Research and informational articles on falling, and NANDA Nursing Diagnoses: Definitions and Classification, 1999-2000. Replace the current nursing diagnosis risk for trauma with the more specific nursing diagnosis unintentional injury risk: falls. The other risks included in risk for trauma (e.g., burns) also will need to be developed.

  13. Contract Negotiations Supported Through Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Sérgio A.; Vaz, Marco A.; Souza, Jano M.

    Many clients often view software as a commodity; then, it is critical that IT sellers know how to create value into their offering to differentiate their service from all the others. Clients sometimes refuse to contract software development due to lack of technical understanding or simply because they are afraid of IT contractual commitments. The IT negotiators who recognize the importance of this issue and the reason why it is a problem will be able to work to reach the commercial terms they want. Therefore, this chapter aims to stimulate IT professionals to improve their negotiation skills and presents a computational tool to support managers to get the best out of software negotiations through the identification of contract risks.

  14. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2017-07-05

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Analysis Methods Of The Insolvency Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Munteanu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A company’s capacity to be solvent/able* – to defeat the insolvencyrisk, has an important position within the System of financial-patrimonial analysis. Any problem regarding the payment of obligatory taxes generates prejudice and requires urgent solving.

  16. Risk-Based Explosive Safety Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-30

    other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a...based analysis of scenario 2 would likely determine that the hazard of death or injury to any single person is low due to the separation distance

  17. Factors controlling the quality and safety of fish using mackerel (Scomber scombrus) shelf-life model in the context of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures for The Gambian fisheries.

    OpenAIRE

    Banja, Bamba A.M.

    2010-01-01

    Merged with duplicate record 10026.1/769 on 06.20.2017 by CS (TIS) Food quality, including safety, is a major concern facing the food industry today. The effects of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures in the fisheries sector of The Gambia including the factors affecting the safety and spoilage of fish were investigated. Effects of SPS measures are important impediments for exporting fish and fishery products originating from The Gambia to the international food commodity ...

  18. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  19. Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

    2016-07-01

    Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

  20. Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-01

    potential risks, and estimated development times associated with each technology. The established WSTAT framework utilizes elicitation techniques with...and stakeholder value in order to inform and potentially influence requirements documents and associated specifications. The WSTA tool (WSTAT) can...exploitation, requirements definition, early cost informed trades, requirements analysis, Analysis of Alternatives (AoA), contractor trades, and technology

  1. Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

    2017-09-06

    Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

  2. Geotechnical risk analysis by flat dilatometer (DMT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoroso, Sara; Monaco, Paola

    2015-04-01

    In the last decades we have assisted at a massive migration from laboratory testing to in situ testing, to the point that, today, in situ testing is often the major part of a geotechnical investigation. The State of the Art indicates that direct-push in situ tests, such as the Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and the Flat Dilatometer Test (DMT), are fast and convenient in situ tests for routine site investigation. In most cases the DMT estimated parameters, in particular the undrained shear strength su and the constrained modulus M, are used with the common design methods of Geotechnical Engineering for evaluating bearing capacity, settlements etc. The paper focuses on the prediction of settlements of shallow foundations, that is probably the No. 1 application of the DMT, especially in sands, where undisturbed samples cannot be retrieved, and on the risk associated with their design. A compilation of documented case histories that compare DMT-predicted vs observed settlements, was collected by Monaco et al. (2006), indicating that, in general, the constrained modulus M can be considered a reasonable "operative modulus" (relevant to foundations in "working conditions") for settlement predictions based on the traditional linear elastic approach. Indeed, the use of a site investigation method, such as DMT, that improve the accuracy of design parameters, reduces risk, and the design can then center on the site's true soil variability without parasitic test variability. In this respect, Failmezger et al. (1999, 2015) suggested to introduce Beta probability distribution, that provides a realistic and useful description of variability for geotechnical design problems. The paper estimates Beta probability distribution in research sites where DMT tests and observed settlements are available. References Failmezger, R.A., Rom, D., Ziegler, S.R. (1999). "SPT? A better approach of characterizing residual soils using other in-situ tests", Behavioral Characterics of Residual Soils, B

  3. Emerging frontier technologies for food safety analysis and risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Yi-yang; LIU Jia-hui; WANG Sai; CHEN Qi-long; GUO Tian-yang; ZHANG Li-ya; JIN Yong; SU Hai-jia; TAN Tian-wei

    2015-01-01

    Access to security and safe food is a basic human necessity and essential for a sustainable world. To perform hi-end food safety analysis and risk assessment with state of the art technologies is of utmost importance thereof. With applications as exempliifed by microlfuidic immunoassay, aptasensor, direct analysis in real time, high resolution mass spectrometry, benchmark dose and chemical speciifc adjustment factor, this review presents frontier food safety analysis and risk assess-ment technologies, from which both food quality and public health wil beneift undoubtedly in a foreseeable future.

  4. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-01-18

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (The Program). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC, in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

  5. Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

    1999-05-19

    Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task.

  6. Risk analysis of early childhood eczema

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Hans; Halkjaer, Liselotte B; Hinge, Rikke

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of eczema suggests the role of environmental factors triggering a genetic predisposition. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the effect of environmental exposures in early life and genetic predisposition on the development of eczema before age 3 years. METHODS: The Copenh......BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of eczema suggests the role of environmental factors triggering a genetic predisposition. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the effect of environmental exposures in early life and genetic predisposition on the development of eczema before age 3 years. METHODS......: The Copenhagen Study on Asthma in Childhood is a prospective clinical study of a birth cohort of 411 children born of mothers with asthma. Eczema was diagnosed, treated, and monitored at the clinical research unit, and complete follow-up for the first 3 years of life was available for 356 children. Risk...... assessments included filaggrin loss-of-function mutation; parent's atopic disease; sex; social status; previous deliveries; third trimester complications and exposures; anthropometrics at birth; month of birth; duration solely breast-fed; introduction of egg, cow's milk, and fish; time spent in day care; cat...

  7. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luteijn, J M; White, B C; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; McCarron, P A; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    Benefit-risk assessment in medicine has been a valuable tool in the regulation of medicines since the 1960s. Benefit-risk assessment takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's life-cycle and can be conducted in a variety of ways, using methods ranging from qualitative to quantitative. Each benefit-risk assessment method is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Despite its widespread and long-time use, benefit-risk assessment in medicine is subject to debate and suffers from a number of limitations and is currently still under development. This state of the art review paper will discuss the various aspects and approaches to benefit-risk assessment in medicine in a chronological pathway. The review will discuss all types of benefit-risk assessment a medicinal product will undergo during its lifecycle, from Phase I clinical trials to post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies. The benefit-risk profile of a drug is dynamic and differs for different indications and patient groups. In the end of this review we conclude benefit-risk analysis in medicine is a developed practice that is subject to continuous improvement and modernisation. Improvement not only in methodology, but also in cooperation between organizations can improve benefit-risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  9. Risk analysis. HIV / AIDS country profile: Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Mozambique's National STD/AIDS Control Program (NACP) estimates that, at present, about 8% of the population is infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The epidemic is expected to peak in 1997. By 2001, Mozambique is projected to have 1,650,000 HIV-positive adults 15-49 years of age, of whom 500,000 will have developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and 500,000 AIDS orphans. Incidence rates are highest in the country's central region, the transport corridors, and urban centers. The rapid spread of HIV has been facilitated by extreme poverty, the social upheaval and erosion of traditional norms created by years of political conflict and civil war, destruction of the primary health care infrastructure, growth of the commercial sex work trade, and labor migration to and from neighboring countries with high HIV prevalence. Moreover, about 10% of the adult population suffers from sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), including genital ulcers. NACP, created in 1988, is attempting to curb the further spread of HIV through education aimed at changing high-risk behaviors and condom distribution to prevent STD transmission. Theater performances and radio/television programs are used to reach the large illiterate population. The integration of sex education and STD/AIDS information in the curricula of primary and secondary schools and universities has been approved by the Ministry of Education. Several private companies have been persuaded to distribute condoms to their employees. Finally, the confidentiality of HIV patients has been guaranteed. In 1993, the total AIDS budget was US $1.67 million, 50% of which was provided by the European Union. The European Commission seeks to develop a national strategy for managing STDs within the primary health care system.

  10. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  11. ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

  12. How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Katy L; Raybould, Alan F; Hudson, Malcolm D; Poppy, Guy M

    2007-01-01

    The debate concerning genetically modified crops illustrates confusion between the role of scientists and that of wider society in regulatory decision making. We identify two fundamental misunderstandings, which, if rectified, would allow progress with confidence. First, scientific risk assessment needs to test well-defined hypotheses, not simply collect data. Second, risk assessments need to be placed in the wider context of risk analysis to enable the wider 'non-scientific' questions to be considered in regulatory decision making. Such integration and understanding is urgently required because the challenges to regulation will escalate as scientific progress advances.

  13. A Subjective Risk Analysis Approach of Container Supply Chains

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zai-Li Yang; Jin Wang; Steve Bonsall; Jian-Bo Yang; Quan-Gen Fang

    2005-01-01

    After the 9/11 terrorism attacks, the lock-out of the American West Ports in 2002 and the breakout of SARS disease in 2003 have further focused mind of both the public and industrialists to take effective and timely measures for assessing and controlling the risks related to container supply chains (CSCs). However, due to the complexity of the risks in the chains, conventional quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods may not be capable of providing sufficient safety management information, as achieving such a functionality requires enabling the possibility of conducting risk analysis in view of the challenges and uncertainties posed by the unavailability and incompleteness of historical failure data. Combing the fuzzy set theory (FST) and an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, the paper presents a subjective method to deal with the vulnerability-based risks, which are more ubiquitous and uncertain than the traditional hazard-based ones in the chains.

  14. Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Hiranya K Nath

    2008-01-01

    With globalization and financial integration, there has been rapid growth of international lending and foreign direct investment (FDI). In view of this emerging trend, country risk analysis has become extremely important for the international creditors and investors. This paper briefly discusses the concepts and definitions, and presents a survey of the quantitative methods that are used to address various issues related to country risk. It also gives a summary review of selected empirical st...

  15. Chronic wasting disease risk analysis workshop: An integrative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Shana; Dein, Joshua; Salman, Mo; Richards, Bryan; Duarte, Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis tools have been successfully used to determine the potential hazard associated with disease introductions and have facilitated management decisions designed to limit the potential for disease introduction. Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) poses significant challenges for resource managers due to an incomplete understanding of disease etiology and epidemiology and the complexity of management and political jurisdictions. Tools designed specifically to assess the risk of CWD introduction would be of great value to policy makers in areas where CWD has not been detected.

  16. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  17. RISK LEVEL ANALYSIS ON THE PREVENTIVE EROSION CAPACITY OF BRIDGES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Deficiency of the Preventive Erosion Capacity (PEC) of a bridge pier is the main factor leading to bridge failures. In this paper, the PEC of bridge piers was analyzed using the stochastic analysis method. The definitions of the reliability and risk level of a bridge pier subjected to water erosion were proposed and a computational model for erosion depth and risk level in was suggested.

  18. Geomorphological risk analysis in the Republic of Belarus

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Romanenko V. GIS-Mapping and Assessment of Geomorphological Risk in Belarus / V. Romanenko, D. Kurlovich // The geomorphology of natural hazards: mapping, analysis and prevention. Abstract book. 17th Joint Geomorphological Meeting, Liege (Belgium). 1-3 July 2014. – Liege. – P. 116. In the present study an assessment of geomorphological risk in the Republic of Belarus has been made. Geomorphological districts (according to geomorphological zoning) were the objects of the research.

  19. Ecological food web analysis for chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preziosi, Damian V; Pastorok, Robert A

    2008-12-01

    Food web analysis can be a critical component of ecological risk assessment, yet it has received relatively little attention among risk assessors. Food web data are currently used in modeling bioaccumulation of toxic chemicals and, to a limited extent, in the determination of the ecological significance of risks. Achieving more realism in ecological risk assessments requires new analysis tools and models that incorporate accurate information on key receptors in a food web paradigm. Application of food web analysis in risk assessments demands consideration of: 1) different kinds of food webs; 2) definition of trophic guilds; 3) variation in food webs with habitat, space, and time; and 4) issues for basic sampling design and collection of dietary data. The different kinds of food webs include connectance webs, materials flow webs, and functional (or interaction) webs. These three kinds of webs play different roles throughout various phases of an ecological risk assessment, but risk assessors have failed to distinguish among web types. When modeling food webs, choices must be made regarding the level of complexity for the web, assignment of species to trophic guilds, selection of representative species for guilds, use of average diets, the characterization of variation among individuals or guild members within a web, and the spatial and temporal scales/dynamics of webs. Integrating exposure and effects data in ecological models for risk assessment of toxic chemicals relies on coupling food web analysis with bioaccumulation models (e.g., Gobas-type models for fish and their food webs), wildlife exposure models, dose-response models, and population dynamics models.

  20. Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

    2016-08-13

    Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance.

  1. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

    2012-01-01

    Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume.

  2. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  3. Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

  4. SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF CREDIT RISK - PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LĂPĂDUSI MIHAELA LOREDANA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainty of the economic and social environment in which a company operates represents the essentialfeature from which are discharged all types of hazards. Protection against risks, mitigation of their effects that aremeasured by the losses generated are issues which led to the continuous improvement of the measure of prevention andmanagement of riskThe article puts in to highlight a number of aspects related to the prevention and management of credit risk, twokey actions on the conduct of the business of a firm, but in carrying out the activities. In the presentation of the articlewe focused on a synthetic analysis of the sources of information used in credit risk analysis based on information fromsources both within the company and outside of it.The importance of prevention and management of credit consists in being able to forecast the possibleproduction of the event of credit risk and of taking in time the necessary decisions in order to reduce this and someadverse consequences. The essence of credit risk can be expressed by the possibility of the quantification of likelihoodappearance of this risk with consequences which have a direct effect on the activity of banks or financial institutions.

  5. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-05

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77-0.95; p = 0.004) and light-moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83-0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06-1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10-1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light-moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

  6. Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiu-ying LONG

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

  7. [Competitive karate and the risk of HIV infection--review, risk analysis and risk minimizing strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Rath, R; Mumme, T; Miltner, O; Skobel, E

    2004-03-01

    Bleeding facial injuries are not uncommon in competitive karate. Nevertheless, the risk of an infection with HIV is extremely low. Guidelines about the prevention of HIV infections are presented. Especially in contact sports and martial arts the athletes, judges and staff have to recognize and employ these recommendations. Bleeding wounds of the hands due to contact with the opponents teeth can be minimized by fist padding.

  8. From risk analysis to risk governance - Adapting to an ever more complex future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk U. Pfeiffer

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis is now widely accepted amongst veterinary authorities and other stakeholders around the world as a conceptual framework for integrating scientific evidence into animal health decision making. The resulting risk management for most diseases primarily involves linking epidemiological understanding with diagnostics and/or vaccines. Recent disease outbreaks such as Nipah virus, SARS, avian influenza H5N1, bluetongue serotype 8 and Schmallenberg virus have led to realising that we need to explicitly take into account the underlying complex interactions between environmental, epidemiological and social factors which are often also spatially and temporally heterogeneous as well as interconnected across affected regions and beyond. A particular challenge is to obtain adequate understanding of the influence of human behaviour and to translate this into effective mechanisms leading to appropriate behaviour change where necessary. Both, the One Health and the ecohealth approaches reflect the need for such a holistic systems perspective, however the current implementation of risk analysis frameworks for animal health and food safety is still dominated by a natural or biomedical perspective of science as is the implementation of control and prevention policies. This article proposes to integrate the risk analysis approach with a risk governance framework which explicitly adds the socio-economic context to policy development and emphasizes the need for organisational change and stakeholder engagement.

  9. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  10. Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Signe Tanja

    are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph......D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes...... of variations in the data. Essential limiting factors of urban flooding QMRAs were identified as uncertainty regarding ingestion volumes, the limited use of dose-response models and low numbers of microbial parameters measurements and absent validation of the risk assessments. Because improving knowledge...

  11. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

    2009-12-05

    We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

  12. A Review of Studies on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures Issues%实施卫生与植物卫生措施研究述评

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    戚亚梅; 叶志华; 钱永忠

    2012-01-01

    食品安全管理、消费者的质量和安全需求,以及保护与发展农产品贸易等多种诉求共同推动了卫生与植物卫生( SPS)措施在确定农产品市场准入方面地位的提升.本文重点围绕SPS措施实施所产生的影响及其程度测算方法、发展中国家应对等问题,对现有研究进行综述,并提出未来研究的方向.%Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures in the main are aimed at protecting the consumer' s health, increasing economic viability, harmonizing well-being within and between nations. Food regulation, consumer' s appeals for safety food, and agro-product trade development boost the importance of SPS measures in determining market access. The paper reviews major issues on SPS measures implementation, including the impact of SPS measures, scholar' s research methods and how developing countries address SPS challenges, and proposes several future research fields.

  13. Empirical Analysis of Urban Residents’ Perceived Climatic Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peihui; DAI; Lingling; HUANG

    2014-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human survival and security,urban development is even more profound,and receives more and more attention. To explore the perceived status of urban residents for the risks of climate change and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions,taking Wuhan for example,from the microscopic point of urban residents,we use factor analysis to classify the perceived risks and recognized risk reduction measures,use cluster analysis to divide the urban residents into five groups,and use variance analysis to explore differences in the choice of measures between different cluster groups. We draw the following conclusions: the risk of deterioration of the ecological environment,the risk of economic damage,the risk of damage to the mental health,the risk of damage to the physical health and the risk of damage to the political harmony are the main risks of climate change for urban residents; individuals and families to develop good habits,businesses and governments to strengthen energy conservation,schools and other agencies to carry on the propaganda and education,carrying out multi-agent environment improvement,learn from the West are their recognized risk reduction measures. Depending on the perceived risk,the urban residents are clustered into five groups: those who are concerned about the body and politics,those who are concerned about the mental health,those who are concerned about the economic development,those who are concerned about the ecological safety,and those who ignore the climatic change. For the roles of individual and the family,business and government in the environmental protection,different groups have unanimous views,while for other measures,different groups have different understanding. It is concluded that individuals and families to develop environmentally friendly habits,government to strengthen regulation,businesses to take environmental responsibility,schools to strengthen publicity and education,and exploring

  14. Preliminary Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McVeigh, J.; Cohen, J.; Vorum, M.; Porro, G.; Nix, G.

    2007-03-01

    This report explains the goals, methods, and results of a probabilistic analysis of technical risk for a portfolio of R&D projects in the DOE Geothermal Technologies Program ('the Program'). The analysis is a task by Princeton Energy Resources International, LLC (PERI), in support of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Program. The main challenge in the analysis lies in translating R&D results to a quantitative reflection of technical risk for a key Program metric: levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This requires both computational development (i.e., creating a spreadsheet-based analysis tool) and a synthesis of judgments by a panel of researchers and experts of the expected results of the Program's R&D.

  15. Downside Risk analysis applied to Hedge Funds universe

    CERN Document Server

    Perello, J

    2006-01-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires a high precision risk evaluation and an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater (or lower) than investor's goal. We study several risk indicators using the Gaussian case as a benchmark and apply them to the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data.

  16. Risk Analysis on Uric Acid Resulting in Carotid Atherosclerosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖敏; 李河; 郭兰; 石美铃; 麦劲壮

    2004-01-01

    Objectives To explore the risk of uric acid (UA) resulting in carotid atherosclerosis. Methods With a cross sectional study, 643 subjects (aged 41-83 yrs, male 552 and female 91)were surveyed in 1999 in Guangdong Province, China.The main research variables were uric acid (UA), occurrence and the size of carotid artery plaque. Results There was no statistical significance between the UA means of plaque occurrence and no-occurrence groups (t=0.60, df=242, P=0.5495). It seemed UA was not a possible risk factor of carotid atherosclerosis (OR=1.060, P=-0.8448>0.05, n=244) based on the logistic regression analysis. Conclusions Our results are not consistent with serum UA being an independent risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). It is necessary to do more research to learn the risk degree of UA during the progress of atherosclerosis/CHD.

  17. Downside Risk analysis applied to the Hedge Funds universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perelló, Josep

    2007-09-01

    Hedge Funds are considered as one of the portfolio management sectors which shows a fastest growing for the past decade. An optimal Hedge Fund management requires an appropriate risk metrics. The classic CAPM theory and its Ratio Sharpe fail to capture some crucial aspects due to the strong non-Gaussian character of Hedge Funds statistics. A possible way out to this problem while keeping the CAPM simplicity is the so-called Downside Risk analysis. One important benefit lies in distinguishing between good and bad returns, that is: returns greater or lower than investor's goal. We revisit most popular Downside Risk indicators and provide new analytical results on them. We compute these measures by taking the Credit Suisse/Tremont Investable Hedge Fund Index Data and with the Gaussian case as a benchmark. In this way, an unusual transversal lecture of the existing Downside Risk measures is provided.

  18. Regional Hazard Analysis For Use In Vulnerability And Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maris Fotios

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.

  19. Meta analysis of risk factors for colorectal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kun Chen; Jiong-Liang Qiu; Yang Zhang; Yu-Wan Zhao

    2003-01-01

    AIM: To study the risk factors for colorectal cancer in China.METHODS: A meta-analysis of the risk factors of colorectal cancer was conducted for 14 case-control studies, and reviewed 14 reports within 13 years which included 5034cases and 5205 controls. Dersimonian and Laird random effective models were used to process the results.RESULTS: Meta analysis of the 14 studies demonstrated that proper physical activites and dietary fibers were protective factors (pooled OR<0.8), while fecal mucohemorrhage,chronic diarrhea and polyposis were highly associated with colorectal cancer (all pooled OR>4). The stratified results showed that different OR values of some factors were due to geographic factors or different resourses.CONCLUSION: Risks of colorectal cancer are significantly associated with the histories of intestinal diseases or relative symptoms, high lipid diet, emotional trauma and family history of cancers. The suitable physical activities and dietary fibers are protective factors.

  20. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  1. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  2. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  3. Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

  4. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  5. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Picone, S.; Valstar, J.R.; Gaans, van P.; Grotenhuis, J.T.C.; Rijnaarts, H.H.M.

    2012-01-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the v

  6. RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    This research investigated the application of risk analysis to Oil exploration and production. Essentially ... uncertainty in Oil field projects; it reduces the impact of the losses should an unfavourable .... own merit but since the company has limited funds it can be ..... ference, New Orleans, LA, September 27-30. (1998). 8. Seba ...

  7. Risk management of domino effects considering dynamic consequence analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-06-01

    Domino effects are low-probability high-consequence accidents causing severe damage to humans, process plants, and the environment. Because domino effects affect large areas and are difficult to control, preventive safety measures have been given priority over mitigative measures. As a result, safety distances and safety inventories have been used as preventive safety measures to reduce the escalation probability of domino effects. However, these safety measures are usually designed considering static accident scenarios. In this study, we show that compared to a static worst-case accident analysis, a dynamic consequence analysis provides a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects. This study also presents the application of Bayesian networks and conflict analysis to risk-based allocation of chemical inventories to minimize the consequences and thus to reduce the escalation probability. It emphasizes the risk management of chemical inventories as an inherent safety measure, particularly in existing process plants where the applicability of other safety measures such as safety distances is limited. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  9. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  10. RASOR Project: Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk, from Hazard to Risk using EO data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Over recent decades, there has been a dramatic rise in disasters, and their impact on human populations. Escalation in complexities in our societies is making risks increasingly difficult to understand and changing the ways in which hazards interact with each other. The Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk (RASOR) project developed a multi-hazard risk analysis platform to support the full cycle of disaster management. RASOR provides up-to-date hazard information across floods and geohazards, up-to-date exposure data from known sources and newly-generated EO-based data, and characterised quantitatively their vulnerabilities. RASOR also adapts the newly-developed 12m resolution global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to risk management applications, using it as a base layer to develop specific disaster scenarios. RASOR overlays archived and near real-time very high resolution optical and radar satellite data, combined with in situ data for both global and local applications. A scenario-driven query system allows users to project situations into the future and model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event. Applications with regards to different case study sites are presented in order to illustrate the platform potential.

  11. Recent Advances in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpita Banerjee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In today‟s age, organizations consider software development process as an investment activity which is dependent on the comprehensive and precise working of each phase in Software Development Lifecycle. Flaws from each phase could remain undetected starting from requirement phase till maintenance phase. The flaw or defects if left unattended in the respective phase will be carried forward to next phase aggregating the issues. These undetected flaws should be identified and removed as early as possible so as to reduce additional overheads. From the data available, it is concluded that risk analysis is a major factor which is ignored during all the phases of software development process resulting in the emergence of undetected defects and flaws. Because of the failure of many projects, the importance of risk analysis during software development process is now being well recognized. A series of reversed as well as assorted researches are proceeding towards analyzing the risk „right from the beginning‟ during the software development process. Through researchers have contributed significantly in the field, still more needs to be achieved. This paper presents a review of the current research being done in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM, based on the recently published work. The study is carried out with respect to analysis and management of risk in various phase of SDLC. Such a thorough review enables one to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that need further investigation. Finally, after critical analysis of the current research findings, the future research directions are highlighted with their significance.

  12. RECENT ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT (RAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpita Banerjee

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In today‟s age, organizations consider software development process as an investment activity which is dependent on the comprehensive and precise working of each phase in Software Development Lifecycle. Flaws from each phase could remain undetected starting from requirement phase till maintenance phase. The flaw or defects if left unattended in the respective phase will be carried forward to next phase aggregating the issues. These undetected flaws should be identified and removed as early as possible so as to reduce additional overheads. From the data available, it is concluded that risk analysis is a major factor which is ignored during all the phases of software development process resulting in the emergence of undetected defects and flaws. Because of the failure of many projects, the importance of risk analysis during software development process is now being well recognized. A series of reversed as well as assorted researches are proceeding towards analyzing the risk „right from the beginning‟ during the software development process. Through researchers have contributed significantly in the field, still more needs to be achieved. This paper presents a review of the current research being done in Risk Analysis and Management (RAM, based on the recently published work. The study is carried out with respect to analysis and management of risk in various phase of SDLC. Such a thorough review enables one to identify mature areas of research, as well as areas that need further investigation. Finally, after critical analysis of the current research findings, the future research directions are highlighted with their significance.

  13. Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices; Analisis de riesgos en tratamientos de radiocirugia mediante matrices de riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

  14. Dietary Factors Affecting Thyroid Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Young Ae; Kim, Jeongseon

    2015-01-01

    Some dietary factors are proposed to affect thyroid carcinogenesis, but previous studies have reported inconsistent findings. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis, including 18 eligible studies, to clarify the role of dietary factors in the risk of thyroid cancer. The relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated to assess the association and heterogeneity tests and subgroup and sensitivity analyses, and bias assessments were performed. When the results from all studies were combined, dietary iodine, fish, and cruciferous vegetable intake were not associated with thyroid cancer. However, when the data were divided by geographic location based on iodine availability, a slight increase in the risk of thyroid cancer was observed among those consuming a high total amount of fish in iodine nondeficient areas (RR: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03-1.35; P for heterogeneity = 0.282). When excluding the studies examining a single food item and hospital-based controls, a high intake of cruciferous vegetables was associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer in iodine-deficient areas (RR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.18-1.74; P for heterogeneity = 0.426). This meta-analysis implies that the role of dietary factors, such as fish and cruciferous vegetables, in thyroid cancer risk can differ based on iodine availability.

  15. Analysis of automated highway system risks and uncertainties. Volume 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sicherman, A.

    1994-10-01

    This volume describes a risk analysis performed to help identify important Automated Highway System (AHS) deployment uncertainties and quantify their effect on costs and benefits for a range of AHS deployment scenarios. The analysis identified a suite of key factors affecting vehicle and roadway costs, capacities and market penetrations for alternative AHS deployment scenarios. A systematic protocol was utilized for obtaining expert judgments of key factor uncertainties in the form of subjective probability percentile assessments. Based on these assessments, probability distributions on vehicle and roadway costs, capacity and market penetration were developed for the different scenarios. The cost/benefit risk methodology and analysis provide insights by showing how uncertainties in key factors translate into uncertainties in summary cost/benefit indices.

  16. A comprehensive risk analysis of coastal zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanghui; Liu, Yijun; Wang, Hongbing; Wang, Xueying

    2014-03-01

    Although coastal zones occupy an important position in the world development, they face high risks and vulnerability to natural disasters because of their special locations and their high population density. In order to estimate their capability for crisis-response, various models have been established. However, those studies mainly focused on natural factors or conditions, which could not reflect the social vulnerability and regional disparities of coastal zones. Drawing lessons from the experiences of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this paper presents a comprehensive assessment strategy based on the mechanism of Risk Matrix Approach (RMA), which includes two aspects that are further composed of five second-class indicators. The first aspect, the probability phase, consists of indicators of economic conditions, social development, and living standards, while the second one, the severity phase, is comprised of geographic exposure and natural disasters. After weighing all of the above indicators by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method, the paper uses the comprehensive assessment strategy to analyze the risk indices of 50 coastal cities in China. The analytical results are presented in ESRI ArcGis10.1, which generates six different risk maps covering the aspects of economy, society, life, environment, disasters, and an overall assessment of the five areas. Furthermore, the study also investigates the spatial pattern of these risk maps, with detailed discussion and analysis of different risks in coastal cities.

  17. Hazardous materials transportation: a risk-analysis-based routing methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, P; Bonvicini, S; Spadoni, G

    2000-01-07

    This paper introduces a new methodology based on risk analysis for the selection of the best route for the transport of a hazardous substance. In order to perform this optimisation, the network is considered as a graph composed by nodes and arcs; each arc is assigned a cost per unit vehicle travelling on it and a vehicle capacity. After short discussion about risk measures suitable for linear risk sources, the arc capacities are introduced by comparison between the societal and individual risk measures of each arc with hazardous materials transportation risk criteria; then arc costs are defined in order to take into account both transportation out-of-pocket expenses and risk-related costs. The optimisation problem can thus be formulated as a 'minimum cost flow problem', which consists of determining for a specific hazardous substance the cheapest flow distribution, honouring the arc capacities, from the origin nodes to the destination nodes. The main features of the optimisation procedure, implemented on the computer code OPTIPATH, are presented. Test results about shipments of ammonia are discussed and finally further research developments are proposed.

  18. Risk analysis for renewable energy projects due to constraints arising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prostean, G.; Vasar, C.; Prostean, O.; Vartosu, A.

    2016-02-01

    Starting from the target of the European Union (EU) to use renewable energy in the area that aims a binding target of 20% renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020, this article illustrates the identification of risks for implementation of wind energy projects in Romania, which could lead to complex technical implications, social and administrative. In specific projects analyzed in this paper were identified critical bottlenecks in the future wind power supply chain and reasonable time periods that may arise. Renewable energy technologies have to face a number of constraints that delayed scaling-up their production process, their transport process, the equipment reliability, etc. so implementing these types of projects requiring complex specialized team, the coordination of which also involve specific risks. The research team applied an analytical risk approach to identify major risks encountered within a wind farm project developed in Romania in isolated regions with different particularities, configured for different geographical areas (hill and mountain locations in Romania). Identification of major risks was based on the conceptual model set up for the entire project implementation process. Throughout this conceptual model there were identified specific constraints of such process. Integration risks were examined by an empirical study based on the method HAZOP (Hazard and Operability). The discussion describes the analysis of our results implementation context of renewable energy projects in Romania and creates a framework for assessing energy supply to any entity from renewable sources.

  19. The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

    2017-05-01

    Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

  20. Dietary Patterns and Pancreatic Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Pei-Ying; Shu, Long; Shen, Shan-Shan; Chen, Xu-Jiao; Zhang, Xiao-Yan

    2017-01-01

    A number of studies have examined the associations between dietary patterns and pancreatic cancer risk, but the findings have been inconclusive. Herein, we conducted this meta-analysis to assess the associations between dietary patterns and the risk of pancreatic cancer. MEDLINE (provided by the National Library of Medicine) and EBSCO (Elton B. Stephens Company) databases were searched for relevant articles published up to May 2016 that identified common dietary patterns. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria and were finally included in this meta-analysis. A reduced risk of pancreatic cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of healthy patterns (odds ratio, OR = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.77–0.95; p = 0.004) and light–moderate drinking patterns (OR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.83–0.98; p = 0.02). There was evidence of an increased risk for pancreatic cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of western-type pattern (OR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.06–1.45; p = 0.008) and heavy drinking pattern (OR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.10–1.48; p = 0.002). The results of this meta-analysis demonstrate that healthy and light–moderate drinking patterns may decrease the risk of pancreatic cancer, whereas western-type and heavy drinking patterns may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. Additional prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:28067765

  1. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Tea consumption and leukemia risk: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shanliang; Chen, Zhiyuan; Yu, Xinnian; Chen, Weixian; Lv, Mengmeng; Ma, Tengfei; Zhao, Jianhua

    2014-06-01

    Epidemiologic findings concerning the association between tea consumption and leukemia risk yielded mixed results. We aimed to investigate the association by performing a meta-analysis of all available studies. One cohort studies and six case-control studies with 1,019 cases were identified using PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE. We computed summary relative risks (RRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using random effect model applied to the relative risk associated with ever, moderate, or highest drinkers vs. non/lowest drinkers. Subgroup analyses were performed based on country (China and USA). Compared with non/lowest drinkers, the combined RR for ever drinkers was 0.76 (95 % CI=0.65-0.89). In subgroup analyses, significant inverse associations were found for both China and USA studies. The summary RR was 0.57 (95 % CI=0.41-0.78) for highest drinkers. Same results were only found in China studies. No significant associations were found for moderate drinkers in overall analysis or in subgroup analyses. There was some evidence of publication bias. In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggests a significant inverse association of high tea consumption and leukemia risk. Results should be interpreted cautiously given the potential publication bias.

  3. Risk-based planning analysis for a single levee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Rui; Jachens, Elizabeth; Lund, Jay

    2016-04-01

    Traditional risk-based analysis for levee planning focuses primarily on overtopping failure. Although many levees fail before overtopping, few planning studies explicitly include intermediate geotechnical failures in flood risk analysis. This study develops a risk-based model for two simplified levee failure modes: overtopping failure and overall intermediate geotechnical failure from through-seepage, determined by the levee cross section represented by levee height and crown width. Overtopping failure is based only on water level and levee height, while through-seepage failure depends on many geotechnical factors as well, mathematically represented here as a function of levee crown width using levee fragility curves developed from professional judgment or analysis. These levee planning decisions are optimized to minimize the annual expected total cost, which sums expected (residual) annual flood damage and annualized construction costs. Applicability of this optimization approach to planning new levees or upgrading existing levees is demonstrated preliminarily for a levee on a small river protecting agricultural land, and a major levee on a large river protecting a more valuable urban area. Optimized results show higher likelihood of intermediate geotechnical failure than overtopping failure. The effects of uncertainty in levee fragility curves, economic damage potential, construction costs, and hydrology (changing climate) are explored. Optimal levee crown width is more sensitive to these uncertainties than height, while the derived general principles and guidelines for risk-based optimal levee planning remain the same.

  4. Analysis of related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi-Song Yu; He-Chao Huang; Feng Ding; Xin-Bo Wang

    2016-01-01

    Objective:To explore the related risk factors for pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy to provide a theoretical evidence for effectively preventing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula.Methods:A total of 100 patients who were admitted in our hospital from January, 2012 to January, 2015 and had performed pancreaticoduodenectomy were included in the study. The related risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula were collected for single factor and Logistic multi-factor analysis.Results:Among the included patients, 16 had pancreatic fistula, and the total occurrence rate was 16% (16/100). The single-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, preoperative bilirubin, pancreatic texture, pancreatic duct diameter, intraoperative amount of bleeding, postoperative hemoglobin, and application of somatostatin after operation were the risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (P<0.05). The multi-factor analysis showed that the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin were the dependent risk factors for developing pancreatic fistula (OR=4.162, 6.104, 5.613, 4.034,P<0.05).Conclusions:The occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is closely associated with the upper abdominal operation history, the soft pancreatic texture, small pancreatic duct diameter, and low postoperative hemoglobin; therefore, effective measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence of pancreatic fistula according to the patients’own conditions.

  5. Cancer risk in waterpipe smokers: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamtani, Ravinder; Cheema, Sohaila; Sheikh, Javaid; Al Mulla, Ahmad; Lowenfels, Albert; Maisonneuve, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    To quantify by meta-analysis the relationship between waterpipe smoking and cancer, including cancer of the head and neck, esophagus, stomach, lung and bladder. We performed a systematic literature search to identify relevant studies, scored their quality, used fixed and random-effect models to estimate summary relative risks (SRR), evaluated heterogeneity and publication bias. We retrieved information from 28 published reports. Considering only highquality studies, waterpipe smoking was associated with increased risk of head and neck cancer (SRR 2.97; 95 % CI 2.26-3.90), esophageal cancer (1.84; 1.42-2.38) and lung cancer (2.22; 1.24-3.97), with no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias. Increased risk was also observed for stomach and bladder cancer but based mainly on poor-quality studies. For colorectum, liver and for all sites combined risk estimates were elevated, but there were insufficient reports to perform a meta-analysis. Contrary to the perception of the relative safety of waterpipe smoking, this meta-analysis provides quantitative estimates of its association with cancers of the head and neck, esophagus and lung. The scarcity and limited quality of available reports point out the need for larger carefully designed studies in well-defined populations.

  6. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  7. Risk Factors Analysis on Traumatic Brain Injury Prognosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-dong Qu; Resha Shrestha; Mao-de Wang

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the independent risk factors of traumatic brain injury (TBI) prognosis.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed in 885 hospitalized TEl patients from January 1,2003 to January 1, 2010 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Medical College of Xi' an Jiaotong University. Single-factor and logistic regression analysis were conducted to evaluate the association of different variables with TBI outcome.Results The single-factor analysis revealed significant association between several variables and TEl outcome, including age (P=0.044 for the age group 40-60, P<0.001 for the age group ≥60), complications (P<0.001), cerebrospinal fluid leakage (P<0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) (P<0.001), pupillary light reflex (P<0.001), shock (P<0.001), associated extra-cranial lesions (P=0.01), subdural hematoma (P<0.001), cerebral contusion (P<0.001), diffuse axonal injury (P<0.001), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (P<0.001), suggesting the influence of those factors on the prognosis of TBI. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis identified age, GCS score, pupillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage as independent risk factors of TEl prognosis.Conclusion Age, GCS score, papillary light reflex, subdural hematoma, and subarachnoid hemorrhage may be risk factors influencing the prognosis of TEl. Paying attention to those factors might improve the outcome of TBI in clinical treatment.

  8. Methodology for risk analysis based on atmospheric dispersion modelling from nuclear risk sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.; Rigina, O.

    2003-04-01

    The main purpose of this multidisciplinary study is to develop a methodology for complex nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test it on example of estimation of nuclear risk to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site (NRS). The main focus of the paper is the methodology for the evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of radioactive pollutants from NRSs. The method developed for this evaluation is derived from a probabilistic point of view. The main question we are trying to answer is: What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport and impact to different neighbouring regions and countries in case of an accident at an NPP? To answer this question we applied a number of different tools: (i) Trajectory Modelling - to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originating over the locations of selected risk sites; (ii) Dispersion Modelling - for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport from hypothetical accidental releases at NRSs; (iii) Cluster Analysis - to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs; (iv) Probability Fields Analysis - to construct annual, monthly, and seasonal NRS impact indicators to identify the most impacted geographical regions; (v) Specific Case Studies - to estimate consequences for the environment and the populations after a hypothetical accident; (vi) Vulnerability Evaluation to Radioactive Deposition - to describe its persistence in the ecosystems with a focus to the transfer of certain radionuclides into the food chains of key importance for the intake and exposure for a whole population and for certain population groups; (vii) Risk Evaluation and Mapping - to analyse socio-economical consequences for different geographical areas and various population groups taking into account social-geophysical factors and probabilities, and using demographic databases based on GIS analysis.

  9. Risk Analysis as Regulatory Science: Toward The Establishment of Standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Michio

    2016-09-01

    Understanding how to establish standards is essential for risk communication and also provides perspectives for further study. In this paper, the concept of risk analysis as regulatory science for the establishment of standards is demonstrated through examples of standards for evacuation and provisional regulation values in foods and drinking water. Moreover, academic needs for further studies related to standards are extracted. The concepts of the traditional 'Standard I', which has a paternalistic orientation, and 'Standard II', established through stakeholder consensus, are then systemized by introducing the current status of the new standards-related movement that developed after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, and the perspectives of the standards are discussed. Preparation of standards on the basis of stakeholder consensus through intensive risk dialogue before a potential nuclear power plant accident is suggested to be a promising approach to ensure a safe society and enhance subjective well-being.

  10. Financial risk analysis and prediction of Chinese power industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, H.; An, C. [Hebei Univ. of Technology, Tianjin (China). School of Management; Zhang, C. [Nankai Univ., Tianjin (China). School of Business

    2009-03-11

    A study of 57 Shanghai and Shenzhen power industry companies was presented. The study considered financial ratios between companies in order to determine risk factors for financial crises. Financial data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were used to investigate power company performance from 2006 to 2008. Data from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) were also used. Results of the study indicated that the cash-to-current debt ratio, the return on equity (ROE), net asset growth ratio, and inventory turnover presented uncorrelated and significantly varying ratios for failed power companies. The study also showed that most power companies have a high proportion of liabilities, higher debt risk, low asset turnover ratios, and negative net working capital. Results of the analysis were used to design an early warning model that used logistic regression techniques to predict risk. 7 refs., 5 tabs.

  11. Risk analysis of landslide disaster in Ponorogo, East Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koesuma, S.; Saido, A. P.; Fukuda, Y.

    2016-11-01

    Ponorogo is one of regency in South-West of East Java Province, Indonesia, where located in subduction zone between Eurasia and Australia plate tectonics. It has a lot of mountain area which is disaster-prone area for landslide. We have collected landslide data in 305 villages in Ponorogo and make it to be Hazards Index. Then we also calculate Vulnerability Index, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index and Capacity Index. The risk analysis map is composed of three components H (Hazards), V (Vulnerability, Economic Loss index, Environmental Damage Index) and C (Capacity Index). The method is based on regulations of National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB) number 02/2012 and number 03/2012. It has three classes of risk index, i.e. Low, Medium and High. Ponorogo city has a medium landslide risk index.

  12. Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antônio César Villatore

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

  13. H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

    2013-01-01

    For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials releas

  14. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Börner

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed.

  15. Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalk, Thomas R.; Spence, Cliff A.

    2003-01-01

    A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

  16. Corticosteroids and pediatric septic shock outcomes: a risk stratified analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah J Atkinson

    Full Text Available The potential benefits of corticosteroids for septic shock may depend on initial mortality risk.We determined associations between corticosteroids and outcomes in children with septic shock who were stratified by initial mortality risk.We conducted a retrospective analysis of an ongoing, multi-center pediatric septic shock clinical and biological database. Using a validated biomarker-based stratification tool (PERSEVERE, 496 subjects were stratified into three initial mortality risk strata (low, intermediate, and high. Subjects receiving corticosteroids during the initial 7 days of admission (n = 252 were compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids (n = 244. Logistic regression was used to model the effects of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality and complicated course, defined as death within 28 days or persistence of two or more organ failures at 7 days.Subjects who received corticosteroids had greater organ failure burden, higher illness severity, higher mortality, and a greater requirement for vasoactive medications, compared to subjects who did not receive corticosteroids. PERSEVERE-based mortality risk did not differ between the two groups. For the entire cohort, corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3-4.0, p = 0.004 and a complicated course (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.5, p = 0.012. Within each PERSEVERE-based stratum, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes. Similarly, corticosteroid administration was not associated with improved outcomes among patients with no comorbidities, nor in groups of patients stratified by PRISM.Risk stratified analysis failed to demonstrate any benefit from corticosteroids in this pediatric septic shock cohort.

  17. New challenges on uncertainty propagation assessment of flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Luciano; Aroca-Jiménez, Estefanía; Bodoque, José M.; Díez-Herrero, Andrés

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as floods, cause considerable damage to the human life, material and functional assets every year and around the World. Risk assessment procedures has associated a set of uncertainties, mainly of two types: natural, derived from stochastic character inherent in the flood process dynamics; and epistemic, that are associated with lack of knowledge or the bad procedures employed in the study of these processes. There are abundant scientific and technical literature on uncertainties estimation in each step of flood risk analysis (e.g. rainfall estimates, hydraulic modelling variables); but very few experience on the propagation of the uncertainties along the flood risk assessment. Therefore, epistemic uncertainties are the main goal of this work, in particular,understand the extension of the propagation of uncertainties throughout the process, starting with inundability studies until risk analysis, and how far does vary a proper analysis of the risk of flooding. These methodologies, such as Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT), Method of Moments or Monte Carlo, are used to evaluate different sources of error, such as data records (precipitation gauges, flow gauges...), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling (inundation estimation), socio-demographic data (damage estimation) to evaluate the uncertainties propagation (UP) considered in design flood risk estimation both, in numerical and cartographic expression. In order to consider the total uncertainty and understand what factors are contributed most to the final uncertainty, we used the method of Polynomial Chaos Theory (PCT). It represents an interesting way to handle to inclusion of uncertainty in the modelling and simulation process. PCT allows for the development of a probabilistic model of the system in a deterministic setting. This is done by using random variables and polynomials to handle the effects of uncertainty. Method application results have a better robustness than traditional analysis

  18. 77 FR 65760 - Request for Public Comments To Compile the Reports on Sanitary and Phytosanitary and Technical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-30

    ... to focus on the most significant foreign trade barriers, USTR will be guided by the existence of... measures applied to protect the life or health of humans, animals, and plants from risks arising from... option of making submissions by filling in a comments field, or by attaching a document. USTR...

  19. Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

    2016-09-13

    Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09-1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13-1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias-cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40-5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01-1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors.

  20. An analysis of risk factors for asymptomatic cerebral infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiga, Tomoko; Owada, Kiyoshi; Hoshino, Tatsuo; Nagahara, Hikaru; Shiratori, Keiko

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to identify risk factors for asymptomatic cerebral infarction (ACI) in the general Japanese population. A total of 634 subjects (272 men aged 55.4+/-8.8 years and 362 women aged 55.2+/-8.5 years) who visited the Health Management Center at Aoyama Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) from January 2004 through January 2005 for an annual brain dry dock examination were analyzed. We evaluated 21 risk factors for ACI by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Abnormal or potentially abnormal conditions were detected in 258 subjects (40.7% of all subjects who had an annual check-up program for brain disease). The most frequent abnormal finding was ACI, which was observed in 208 subjects. The significant risk factors for ACI, as determined by multivariate logistic analysis, were age (P <0.01), hypertension (P <0.01), and hypertensive vascular changes in the fundus (P <0.05). The hypertensive vascular abnormalities in the fundus might be a risk factor for ACI independent of age and hypertension.

  1. Working session 5: Operational aspects and risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cizelj, L. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Donoghue, J. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

    1997-02-01

    A general observation is that both operational aspects and risk analysis cannot be adequately discussed without information presented in other sessions. Some overlap of conclusions and recommendations is therefore to be expected. Further, it was assumed that recommendations concerning improvements in some related topics were generated by other sessions and are not repeated here. These include: (1) Knowledge on degradation mechanisms (initiation, progression, and failure). (2) Modeling of degradation (initiation, progression, and failure). (3) Capabilities of NDE methods. (4) Preventive maintenance and repair. One should note here, however, that all of these directly affect both operational and risk aspects of affected plants. A list of conclusions and recommendations is based on available presentations and discussions addressing risk and operational experience. The authors aimed at reaching as broad a consensus as possible. It should be noted here that there is no strict delineation between operational and safety aspects of degradation of steam generator tubes. This is caused by different risk perceptions in different countries/societies. The conclusions and recommendations were divided into four broad groups: human reliability; leakage monitoring; risk impact; and consequence assessment.

  2. An Investigation Of Organizational Information Security Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zack Jourdan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Despite a growing number and variety of information security threats, many organizations continue to neglect implementing information security policies and procedures.  The likelihood that an organization’s information systems can fall victim to these threats is known as information systems risk (Straub & Welke, 1998.  To combat these threats, an organization must undergo a rigorous process of self-analysis. To better understand the current state of this information security risk analysis (ISRA process, this study deployed a questionnaire using both open-ended and closed ended questions administered to a group of information security professionals (N=32.  The qualitative and quantitative results of this study show that organizations are beginning to conduct regularly scheduled ISRA processes.  However, the results also show that organizations still have room for improvement to create idyllic ISRA processes. 

  3. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    OpenAIRE

    Doudová, Lucie; Buňka, František; Michálek, Jaroslav; Sedlačík, Marek; Buňková, Leona

    2013-01-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process ...

  4. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  5. Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Odds versus risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Pramesh, C. S.

    2015-01-01

    In biomedical research, we are often interested in quantifying the relationship between an exposure and an outcome. “Odds” and “Risk” are the most common terms which are used as measures of association between variables. In this article, which is the fourth in the series of common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we explain the meaning of risk and odds and the difference between the two. PMID:26623395

  6. Effect of Irradiation on Queen Survivorship and Reproduction in the Invasive Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and a Proposed Phytosanitary Irradiation Treatment for Ants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follett, Peter A; Porcel, Sol; Calcaterra, Luis A

    2016-12-01

    We studied radiation tolerance in queens of the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) to identify a dose that prevents reproduction. Virgin or fertile queens were collected from Santa Fe and Formosa provinces in Argentina and reared in the laboratory in microcolonies. Virgin queens were irradiated at 0 (control), 70, 90, 120, or 150 Gy, and fertile queens were irradiated at 0, 60, 125, and 190 Gy, and then followed for 11 wk in the microcolonies to evaluate survival and reproduction. Virgin queens lay trophic eggs that do not hatch, whereas fertile queens lay eggs that hatch and develop into brood. In general, queen oviposition and survival decreased with increasing irradiation dose. For virgin queens, no eggs were laid by irradiated queens after the third week, whereas the control queens continued laying eggs throughout the 11-wk experiment. For fertile queens, only one larva and no pupae was observed in the 60 Gy treatment and no larvae or pupae were observed in the 125 and 190 Gy treatments, whereas a total of 431 larvae and 83 pupae were produced by untreated control queens during 11 wks. Survivorship of virgin and fertile queens was similarly reduced by irradiation treatment. These results with S. invicta are consistent with previous findings for three other invasive ants, Wasmannia auropunctata (Roger), Pheidole megacephala (F.), and Linephithema humile (Mayr), that are hitchhiker pests on fresh horticultural commodities. A radiation dose of 150 Gy is proposed as a phytosanitary treatment to prevent reproduction in ants. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  7. The challenge of retarding erosion of island biodiversity through phytosanitary measures: An update on the case of Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loope, Lloyd L.; Uchida, Janice Y.

    2012-01-01

    Most rust fungi are highly host specific, but Puccina psidii has an extremely broad host range within Myrtaceae and gained notoriety with a host jump in its native Brazil from common guava (Psidium guajava) to commercial Eucalyptus plantations. When detected in Hawaiʻi in April 2005, the first invasion outside the neotropics/subtropics, there was immediate concern for ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha). ʻŌhiʻa composes 80% of native forest statewide, providing stable watersheds and habitat for most Hawaiian forest birds and plants. Within months, rust spores spread statewide on wind currents, but ʻōhiʻa was found to be only a minor host, showing very light damage. The primary host was nonnative rose apple (Syzygium jambos), severely affected at a landscape scale, but the epiphytotic subsided as rose apple was largely defoliated or killed within several years. The limited and stable host range in Hawaiʻi (versus elsewhere) led the local conservation community to explore possibilities for excluding new genetic strains of P. psidii. Although national/international phytosanitary standards require strong scientific justification for regulations involving an infraspecific taxonomic level, hopes were buoyed when genetic studies showed no apparent genetic variation/evolution in Hawaiʻi's rust strain. A sophisticated genetic study of P. psidii in its home range is near completion; genetic variation is substantial, and host species strongly influences rust population structure. To prevent introduction of new strains, the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture is moving ahead with establishing stringent measures that restrict entry of Myrtaceae into Hawaiʻi. Meanwhile, P. psidii poses a major threat to Myrtaceae biodiversity worldwide.

  8. Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel ÇELİK

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks since it underlines the critical factors in liquidity risk management.

  9. Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

    2017-06-20

    While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-06-02

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system.

  11. Analysis of risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qi-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Zhi; Xia, Hong-Tian; Leng, Jian-Jun; Wan, Tao; Liang, Bin; Yang, Tao; Dong, Jia-Hong

    2014-12-14

    To explore the morbidity and risk factors of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreaticoduodenectomy. The data from 196 consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, performed by different surgeons, in the General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army between January 1(st), 2013 and December 31(st), 2013 were retrospectively collected for analysis. The diagnoses of POPF and clinically relevant (CR)-POPF following pancreaticoduodenectomy were judged strictly by the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula Definition. Univariate analysis was performed to analyze the following factors: patient age, sex, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, serum CA19-9 level, history of jaundice, serum albumin level, blood loss volume, pancreatic duct diameter, pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy, pancreatic drainage and pancreaticojejunostomy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the main independent risk factors for POPF. POPF occurred in 126 (64.3%) of the patients, and the incidence of CR-POPF was 32.7% (64/196). Patient characteristics of age, sex, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, serum CA19-9 level, history of jaundice, serum albumin level, blood loss volume, pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy and pancreaticojejunostomy showed no statistical difference related to the morbidity of POPF or CR-POPF. Pancreatic duct diameter was found to be significantly correlated with POPF rates by univariate analysis and multivariate regression analysis, with a pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm being an independent risk factor for POPF (OR = 0.291; P = 0.000) and CR-POPF (OR = 0.399; P = 0.004). The CR-POPF rate was higher in patients without external pancreatic stenting, which was found to be an independent risk factor for CR-POPF (OR = 0.394; P = 0.012). Among the entire patient series, there were three postoperative deaths, giving a total mortality rate of 1.5% (3/196), and the mortality

  12. Risk Analysis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhi-fang Jia; Meng Su; Miao He; Zhi-hua Yin; Wei Wu; Xue-lian Li; Peng Guan; Bao-sen Zhou

    2009-01-01

    Objective: It is known that chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a main risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To assess the effect of HBV infection and its interaction with other factors on the risk for HCC, a hospital-based case-control study was carried out in Northeast China. Methods: A total of 384 cases with hepatocellular carcinoma and 432 controls without evidence of liver diseases were enrolled in the study. Blood samples were collected to detect the serum markers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and questionnaires about lifestyle and family tumor history were performed in all subjects. Results: The total infection rate of HBV in hepatocellular carcinoma cases was 70.8% and 10.0% in non-liver disease controls. There was a statistically significant difference (P<0.0001) between cases and controls (OR= 22.0; 95%CI:15.0-32.3). Interaction analysis indicated that in HBV chronic carriers with HCV infection or alcohol consumption or family HCC history, the risk for HCC increased (OR=41.1, 95%CI: 20.2-83.9, OR=125.0, 95%CI: 66.5-235.2; OR=56.9, 95%CI: 27.2-119.3 respectively). In addition, hepatitis B history, HCV infection, hepatic cirrhosis and family history of HCC were also potential HCC independent risk factors. Conclusion: We confirmed that HBV is a chief risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma and accounts for 67.7% of all hepatocellular carcinoma in Northeast China. HCV infection, alcohol intake and family history could enhance the risk for HCC in chronic HBV carriers.

  13. Living with Risk in Everyday Life - A Comparative Analysis on Handling and Reflecting Risk in Everyday Actions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara

    phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...

  14. Analysis and evaluation of enterprise risk management capability elements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Research on enterprise risk management capability is conducted with a view of discerning and processing risks, in which an evaluation index system and an evaluation model of enterprise risk management capabilities are constructed. The risk management capability consists of four aspects, i.e. risk identification capability, risk assessment capability, risk planning capability and risk control capability. Risk identification and assessment capabilities reflect the level of enterprises on finding and analyzing...

  15. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  16. Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sterlacchini

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004 on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps, poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis.

    A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities. This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect

  17. Risk analysis for autonomous underwater vehicle operations in extreme environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Mario Paulo; Griffiths, Gwyn; Challenor, Peter

    2010-12-01

    Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January-March 2009.

  18. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  19. Cascade vulnerability for risk analysis of water infrastructure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitzenfrei, R; Mair, M; Möderl, M; Rauch, W

    2011-01-01

    One of the major tasks in urban water management is failure-free operation for at least most of the time. Accordingly, the reliability of the network systems in urban water management has a crucial role. The failure of a component in these systems impacts potable water distribution and urban drainage. Therefore, water distribution and urban drainage systems are categorized as critical infrastructure. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is likely to experience harm induced by perturbation or stress. However, for risk assessment, we usually assume that events and failures are singular and independent, i.e. several simultaneous events and cascading events are unconsidered. Although failures can be causally linked, a simultaneous consideration in risk analysis is hardly considered. To close this gap, this work introduces the term cascade vulnerability for water infrastructure. Cascade vulnerability accounts for cascading and simultaneous events. Following this definition, cascade risk maps are a merger of hazard and cascade vulnerability maps. In this work cascade vulnerability maps for water distribution systems and urban drainage systems based on the 'Achilles-Approach' are introduced and discussed. It is shown, that neglecting cascading effects results in significant underestimation of risk scenarios.

  20. [Analysis of risk factors for perinatal brachial plexus palsy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosk, Jerzy; Rutowski, Roman

    2005-04-01

    Risk factors of obstetrical brachial plexus palsy include: (1) large birth weight, (2) shoulder dystocia and prolonged second stage of labour, (3) instrumental vaginal delivery (forceps delivery, vacuum extraction), (4) diabetes mellitus and mother's obesity, (5) breech presentation, (6) delivery and infant with obstetrical brachial plexus palsy in antecedent delivery. The purpose was analysis of the classical risk factors for brachial plexus palsy based on our own clinical material. Clinical material consists of 83 children with obstetrical brachial plexus palsy treated at the Department of Trauma and Hand Surgery (surgically--54, conservatively--29). Control group consists of 56 healthy newborns. Data recorded included: birth weight, body length, head and chest circumference, Apgar test at 1 min., type of brachial palsy and side affected, type of birth, presentation, duration of delivery (II stage), age of mother, mother's diseases, parity. The infants treated surgically have had a significantly higher birth weight, body height, head and chest circumference, in compression with control group and group treated conservatively. The differences were statistically important. Shoulder dystocia occurred in 32.9% of all vaginal delivery. Instrumental vaginal delivery was observed in 11.3% and breech presentation in 4.9% cases. There were no incidences of obstetrical brachial plexus palsy recurrence. Diabetes mellitus and mother's obesity was found in 3 cases. (1) Fetal macrosomia is the important risk factor of the obstetrical brachial plexus palsy. (2) Obstetrical brachial plexus palsy may occur also in the absence of the classical risk factors.

  1. Securitization of Receivables - An Analysis of the Inherent Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Ferreira Savoia

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Securitization is a modality of structured finance which allows a company to raise funds based on its receivables through capital markets. In Brazil, securitization was developed mostly in the form of mutual funds - the FIDC, which raise money by issuing senior cotes for qualified investors, and subordinated cotes, usually bought by the company that originated the receivables. This paper evaluates the risk and return for both kinds of investors through a stochastic model with two main variables: interest rates and default rates. The model is still sensible to the characteristics of the fund, like the amount of subordinated cotes, the type of asset being securitized; and the amount of receivables in relation to the assets. Regarding the case of senior cotes, the risk of returns under the basic level of interest rates is highly improbable; and in the case of subordinated cotes, the risk of returns under the basic interest rate may be considered still low, due to the high spreads observed in the Brazilian financial market. The simulations indicated that under historically mean interest rate volatility the default rates are the main component of the total risk. Accordingly to the developed analysis of international standards of regulation, the Brazilian Central Bank imposes very strong capital requirements to banks that securitize their assets and purchase the corresponding subordinated cotes.

  2. Risk Propagation Analysis and Visualization using Percolation Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Konig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a percolation-based approach for the analysis of risk propagation, using malware spreading as a showcase example. Conventional risk management is often driven by human (subjective assessment of how one risk influences the other, respectively, how security incidents can affect subsequent problems in interconnected (subsystems of an infrastructure. Using percolation theory, a well-established methodology in the fields of epidemiology and disease spreading, a simple simulation-based method is described to assess risk propagation system-atically. This simulation is formally analyzed using percolation theory, to obtain closed form criteria that help predicting a pandemic incident propagation (or a propagation with average-case bounded implications. The method is designed as a security decision support tool, e.g., to be used in security operation centers. For that matter, a flexible visualization technique is devised, which is naturally induced by the percolation model and the simulation algorithm that derives from it. The main output of the model is a graphical visualization of the infrastructure (physical or logical topology. This representation uses color codes to indicate the likelihood of problems to arise from a security incident that initially occurs at a given point in the system. Large likelihoods for problems thus indicate “hotspots”, where additional action should be taken.

  3. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  4. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  5. Risk-management and risk-analysis-based decision tools for attacks on electric power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonoff, Jeffrey S; Restrepo, Carlos E; Zimmerman, Rae

    2007-06-01

    Incident data about disruptions to the electric power grid provide useful information that can be used as inputs into risk management policies in the energy sector for disruptions from a variety of origins, including terrorist attacks. This article uses data from the Disturbance Analysis Working Group (DAWG) database, which is maintained by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), to look at incidents over time in the United States and Canada for the period 1990-2004. Negative binomial regression, logistic regression, and weighted least squares regression are used to gain a better understanding of how these disturbances varied over time and by season during this period, and to analyze how characteristics such as number of customers lost and outage duration are related to different characteristics of the outages. The results of the models can be used as inputs to construct various scenarios to estimate potential outcomes of electric power outages, encompassing the risks, consequences, and costs of such outages.

  6. Toward an Empirical Taxonomy of Suicide Ideation: A Cluster Analysis of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannery, William Peter; Sneed, Carl D.; Marsh, Penny

    2003-01-01

    In this study we examined adolescent risk behaviors, giving special attention to suicide ideation. Cluster analysis was used to classify adolescents ( N = 2,730) on the Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Six clusters of adolescent risk behavior were identified. Although each risk cluster was distinct, some clusters shared overlapping risk behaviors.…

  7. Risk analysis of investments in-farm milk cooling tanks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sant´Anna Danielle D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis for the installation of milk cooling tanks (250, 500 and 1,000 L on Brazilian rural properties was conducted in this study. The results showed that all investments had a return higher than the annual 12% minimum rate of attractiveness. There was a direct relationship between tank size and investment profitability and an inverse relation between size and risk. The probability of achieving returns lower than the opportunity cost was highest for the smallest tank (42%. In order to make the investment in small cooling tanks more attractive, the dairy industry incentives offered to farmers for supplying cooled milk could be increased. However, this approach might make investments in bulk milk collection by dairy companies infeasible. Thus, a recommendable strategy for a successful modernization of the Brazilian dairy sector?s inbound logistics would be to promote an increase in the volume of the milk produced per farm.

  8. [Risk factors analysis of cardiovascular diseases. Is the Life Style Assessment useful?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bye, A

    1997-08-10

    The Norwegian Medical Association's Health Control Handbook (1993) has introduced a lifestyle risk analysis-a paper-based way of assessing risk factors for cardiovascular disease and transferring them into pedagogic risk scores. By using the lifestyle risk analysis in our data based risk profile system LIVDA, we compared and evaluated the two systems through 437 consultations at our Occupational Health Clinic. The lifestyle risk analysis is a pedagogic tool, as compared with the unsystematic clinical information recorded in journals. We found only small differences between the lifestyle risk analysis and LIVDA, except when assessing total cholesterol and physical exercise. Lifestyle risk analysis does not, however, allow categorisation of risk factor values without adjustments, and does not include all relevant risk factors. Further, there are no possibilities of measuring motivation, or for selecting patients for group intervention.

  9. Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2017-02-01

    Survival analysis in the presence of competing risks imposes additional challenges for clinical investigators in that hazard function (the rate) has no one-to-one link to the cumulative incidence function (CIF, the risk). CIF is of particular interest and can be estimated non-parametrically with the use cuminc() function. This function also allows for group comparison and visualization of estimated CIF. The effect of covariates on cause-specific hazard can be explored using conventional Cox proportional hazard model by treating competing events as censoring. However, the effect on hazard cannot be directly linked to the effect on CIF because there is no one-to-one correspondence between hazard and cumulative incidence. Fine-Gray model directly models the covariate effect on CIF and it reports subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR). However, SHR only provide information on the ordering of CIF curves at different levels of covariates, it has no practical interpretation as HR in the absence of competing risks. Fine-Gray model can be fit with crr() function shipped with the cmprsk package. Time-varying covariates are allowed in the crr() function, which is specified by cov2 and tf arguments. Predictions and visualization of CIF for subjects with given covariate values are allowed for crr object. Alternatively, competing risk models can be fit with riskRegression package by employing different link functions between covariates and outcomes. The assumption of proportionality can be checked by testing statistical significance of interaction terms involving failure time. Schoenfeld residuals provide another way to check model assumption.

  10. LAVA (Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology): A conceptual framework for automated risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.; Brown, D.C.; FitzGerald, P.D.

    1986-01-01

    At Los Alamos National Laboratory, we have developed an original methodology for performing risk analyses on subject systems characterized by a general set of asset categories, a general spectrum of threats, a definable system-specific set of safeguards protecting the assets from the threats, and a general set of outcomes resulting from threats exploiting weaknesses in the safeguards system. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Methodology (LAVA) models complex systems having large amounts of ''soft'' information about both the system itself and occurrences related to the system. Its structure lends itself well to automation on a portable computer, making it possible to analyze numerous similar but geographically separated installations consistently and in as much depth as the subject system warrants. LAVA is based on hierarchical systems theory, event trees, fuzzy sets, natural-language processing, decision theory, and utility theory. LAVA's framework is a hierarchical set of fuzzy event trees that relate the results of several embedded (or sub-) analyses: a vulnerability assessment providing information about the presence and efficacy of system safeguards, a threat analysis providing information about static (background) and dynamic (changing) threat components coupled with an analysis of asset ''attractiveness'' to the dynamic threat, and a consequence analysis providing information about the outcome spectrum's severity measures and impact values. By using LAVA, we have modeled our widely used computer security application as well as LAVA/CS systems for physical protection, transborder data flow, contract awards, and property management. It is presently being applied for modeling risk management in embedded systems, survivability systems, and weapons systems security. LAVA is especially effective in modeling subject systems that include a large human component.

  11. ANALYSIS OF ROMANIAN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulcsar Edina

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the fundamental role of small and medium enterprises in Romanian economy, this paper aims to quantify the level of their bankruptcy risk for 2009 and 2012 period, after debuting of financial crisis. The main reason of selecting this type of companies is that they represent the backbone of national economy. They have an indispensable role, because they offer jobs for great part of population and their contribution for GDP stimulation is considerable. In this paper it was applied two default risk models, namely the well known Altman’s Z-score model, based on five financial ratios and a bankruptcy predictor model developed by Teti et. al (2012 used firstly exclusively for Italian small and medium-sized enterprise for 2006-2009 period. The model proposed by Teti et. is based on the investigation of financially distressed and financially non-distressed Italian small and medium-sized enterprises during the financial crisis by using a discriminant analysis model. They conclude that there are four financial ratios, which characterized well the small and medium-sized enterprises bankruptcy risk. These variables are financial ratios, like: Debt/Total Assets, Return on Sales (ROS, EBIT/Interest Expenses and Working capital/EBIDTA. They consider that small and medium-sized enterprises require a particular approach in terms of bankruptcy risk analysis. In present study I try to compare the efficiency of traditional bankruptcy risk model with a small and medium-sized specific model. The necessary database for present analysis is ensured by simplified financial reports of 120 small and medium-sized enterprises registered in Bihor County. The selected enterprises are operating in manufacturing industry (21,67% and trading (78,33%. Present investigation has an important value in actual economic background, where the healthiness and sustainability of small and medium-sized enterprises is a great issue. The results of study shows contradictory

  12. Risk analysis and the law: international law, the World Trade Organization, Codex Alimentarius and national legislation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, L R

    2001-12-01

    This paper discusses the place of risk analysis in international trade from a US perspective, through looking at the activities of the World Trade Organization and the Codex Alimentarius Commission. After examining what the trade agreements say about risk analysis and how international bodies are advancing and using risk analysis, the paper goes on to assess how risk analysis is used at a national level. Finally, recommendations are made for strengthening international food safety initiatives.

  13. Integrated transcriptome and methylome analysis in youth at high risk for bipolar disorder: a preliminary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, G R; Quevedo, J; Zeni, C P; Kazimi, I F; Zunta-Soares, G; Spiker, D E; Bowden, C L; Walss-Bass, C; Soares, J C

    2017-03-14

    First-degree relatives of patients with bipolar disorder (BD), particularly their offspring, have a higher risk of developing BD and other mental illnesses than the general population. However, the biological mechanisms underlying this increased risk are still unknown, particularly because most of the studies so far have been conducted in chronically ill adults and not in unaffected youth at high risk. In this preliminary study we analyzed genome-wide expression and methylation levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from children and adolescents from three matched groups: BD patients, unaffected offspring of bipolar parents (high risk) and controls (low risk). By integrating gene expression and DNA methylation and comparing the lists of differentially expressed genes and differentially methylated probes between groups, we were able to identify 43 risk genes that discriminate patients and high-risk youth from controls. Pathway analysis showed an enrichment of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) pathway with the genes MED1, HSPA1L, GTF2A1 and TAF15, which might underlie the previously reported role of stress response in the risk for BD in vulnerable populations. Cell-based assays indicate a GR hyporesponsiveness in cells from adult BD patients compared to controls and suggest that these GR-related genes can be modulated by DNA methylation, which poses the theoretical possibility of manipulating their expression as a means to counteract the familial risk presented by those subjects. Although preliminary, our results suggest the utility of peripheral measures in the identification of biomarkers of risk in high-risk populations and further emphasize the potential role of stress and DNA methylation in the risk for BD in youth.

  14. Meta-analysis: Circulating vitamin D and ovarian cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Lu; Grandi, Norma; Raum, Elke; Haug, Ulrike; Arndt, Volker; Brenner, Hermann

    2011-05-01

    To review and summarize evidence from longitudinal studies on the association between circulating 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and the risk of ovarian cancer (OC). Relevant prospective cohort studies and nested case-control studies were identified by systematically searching Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Knowledge databases and by cross-referencing. The following data were extracted in a standardized manner from eligible studies: first author, publication year, country, study design, characteristics of the study population, duration of follow-up, OC incidence according to circulating vitamin D status and the respective relative risks, and covariates adjusted for in the analysis. Due to the heterogeneity of studies in categorizing circulating vitamin D levels, all results were recalculated for an increase of circulating 25(OH)D by 20ng/ml. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using meta-analysis methods. Overall, ten individual-level studies were included that reported on the association between circulating vitamin D levels and OC incidence. Meta-analysis of studies on OC incidence resulted in a summary RR (95% confidence interval, CI) of 0.83 (0.63-1.08) for an increase of 25(OH)D by 20ng/ml (P=0.160). No indication for heterogeneity and publication bias was found. A tentative inverse association of circulating 25(OH)D with OC incidence was found, which did not reach statistical significance but which requires clarification by additional studies due to potentially high clinical and public health impact. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

    2015-04-01

    Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

  16. Probabilistic Approach to Risk Analysis of Chemical Spills at Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Magda Bogalecka; Krzysztof Kolowrocki

    2006-01-01

    Risk analysis of chemical spills at sea and their consequences for sea environment are discussed. Mutual interactions between the process of the sea accident initiating events, the process of the sea environment threats, and the process of the sea environment degradation are investigated. To describe these three particular processes, the separate semi-Markov models are built. Furthermore, these models are jointed into one general model of these processes interactions.Moreover, some comments on the method for statistical identification of the considered models are proposed.

  17. Radiological risk analysis of potential SP-100 space mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartram, B.W.; Weitzberg, A.

    1988-08-19

    This report presents a radiological risk analysis of three representative space mission scenarios utilizing a fission reactor. The mission profiles considered are: a high-altitude mission, launched by a TITAN IV launch vehicle, boosted by chemical upper stages into its operational orbit, a interplanetary nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) mission, started directly from a shuttle parking orbit, a low-altitude mission, launched by the Shuttle and boosted by a chemical stage to its operational orbit, with subsequent disposal boost after operation. 21 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  18. Strategy for food risk assessment of the Republic of Macedonia

    OpenAIRE

    Taleski, Vaso; Domazetovska-Popovska, Marina

    2010-01-01

    Central legal Act in food legislation in the Republic of Macedonia is The Law on safety of food and products and materials in contact with food (O.G. of R.M. No. 54/02 and 84/07). Authorities for control of food safety are Ministry of Health by Food Directorate (about 100 employees, 60 inspectors), and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water economy by: Veterinary Directorate, Agricultural Inspection and Phytosanitary Directorate. Tasks of the Risk Assment Unit includes: Creating da...

  19. Metabolic disease risk in children by salivary biomarker analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, J Max; Kantarci, Alpdogan; Hartman, Mor-Li; Denis, Gerald V; Stephens, Danielle; Hasturk, Hatice; Yaskell, Tina; Vargas, Jorel; Wang, Xiaoshan; Cugini, Maryann; Barake, Roula; Alsmadi, Osama; Al-Mutawa, Sabiha; Ariga, Jitendra; Soparkar, Pramod; Behbehani, Jawad; Behbehani, Kazem; Welty, Francine

    2014-01-01

    The study of obesity-related metabolic syndrome or Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children is particularly difficult because of fear of needles. We tested a non-invasive approach to study inflammatory parameters in an at-risk population of children to provide proof-of-principle for future investigations of vulnerable subjects. We evaluated metabolic differences in 744, 11-year old children selected from underweight, normal healthy weight, overweight and obese categories by analyzing fasting saliva samples for 20 biomarkers. Saliva supernatants were obtained following centrifugation and used for analyses. Salivary C-reactive protein (CRP) was 6 times higher, salivary insulin and leptin were 3 times higher, and adiponectin was 30% lower in obese children compared to healthy normal weight children (all P<0.0001). Categorical analysis suggested that there might be three types of obesity in children. Distinctly inflammatory characteristics appeared in 76% of obese children while in 13%, salivary insulin was high but not associated with inflammatory mediators. The remaining 11% of obese children had high insulin and reduced adiponectin. Forty percent of the non-obese children were found in groups which, based on biomarker characteristics, may be at risk for becoming obese. Significantly altered levels of salivary biomarkers in obese children from a high-risk population, suggest the potential for developing non-invasive screening procedures to identify T2D-vulnerable individuals and a means to test preventative strategies.

  20. Metabolic disease risk in children by salivary biomarker analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Max Goodson

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The study of obesity-related metabolic syndrome or Type 2 diabetes (T2D in children is particularly difficult because of fear of needles. We tested a non-invasive approach to study inflammatory parameters in an at-risk population of children to provide proof-of-principle for future investigations of vulnerable subjects. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated metabolic differences in 744, 11-year old children selected from underweight, normal healthy weight, overweight and obese categories by analyzing fasting saliva samples for 20 biomarkers. Saliva supernatants were obtained following centrifugation and used for analyses. RESULTS: Salivary C-reactive protein (CRP was 6 times higher, salivary insulin and leptin were 3 times higher, and adiponectin was 30% lower in obese children compared to healthy normal weight children (all P<0.0001. Categorical analysis suggested that there might be three types of obesity in children. Distinctly inflammatory characteristics appeared in 76% of obese children while in 13%, salivary insulin was high but not associated with inflammatory mediators. The remaining 11% of obese children had high insulin and reduced adiponectin. Forty percent of the non-obese children were found in groups which, based on biomarker characteristics, may be at risk for becoming obese. CONCLUSIONS: Significantly altered levels of salivary biomarkers in obese children from a high-risk population, suggest the potential for developing non-invasive screening procedures to identify T2D-vulnerable individuals and a means to test preventative strategies.

  1. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  2. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  3. Risk Perception Analysis Related To Existing Dams In Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solimene, Pellegrino

    2013-04-01

    earthfill dam is illustrated by defining the risk analysis during its construction and operation. A qualitative "Event Tree Analysis" makes clear with an example the probability of occurrence of the events triggered by an earthquake, and leads to a classification of the damage level. Finally, a System Dynamics (SD) approach is presented to investigate possibilities of a preventive planning in relationship to the risk, so that it's possible to establish shared procedures to achieve the correct management in any crisis phase. As a qualitative result of a SD application, figure 1 presents a flow-chart about a case study on the same dam so to illustrate the emergency planning in a step by step procedure according to the Regulations.

  4. RAVEN, a New Software for Dynamic Risk Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cristian Rabiti; Andrea Alfonsi; Joshua Cogliati; Diego Mandelli; Robert Kinoshita

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN is a generic software driver to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis of code simulating complex systems. Initially developed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the RELAP-7 code [1] is currently being generalized with the addition of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These interfaces are used to extend RAVEN capabilities to any software as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or directly via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable to investigate the system response probing the input space using Monte Carlo, grid strategies, or Latin Hyper Cube schemes, but its strength is its focus toward system feature discovery like limit surfaces separating regions of the input space leading to system failure using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The paper will present an overview of the software capabilities and their implementation schemes followed by same application examples.

  5. Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cuiping Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI, which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements.

  6. Bisphosphonates and risk of cardiovascular events: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae Hyun Kim

    Full Text Available Some evidence suggests that bisphosphonates may reduce atherosclerosis, while concerns have been raised about atrial fibrillation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effects of bisphosphonates on total adverse cardiovascular (CV events, atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction (MI, stroke, and CV death in adults with or at risk for low bone mass.A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE through July 2014 identified 58 randomized controlled trials with longer than 6 months in duration that reported CV events. Absolute risks and the Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs of total CV events, atrial fibrillation, MI, stroke, and CV death were estimated. Subgroup analyses by follow-up duration, population characteristics, bisphosphonate types, and route were performed.Absolute risks over 25-36 months in bisphosphonate-treated versus control patients were 6.5% versus 6.2% for total CV events; 1.4% versus 1.5% for atrial fibrillation; 1.0% versus 1.2% for MI; 1.6% versus 1.9% for stroke; and 1.5% versus 1.4% for CV death. Bisphosphonate treatment up to 36 months did not have any significant effects on total CV events (14 trials; ORs [95% CI]: 0.98 [0.84-1.14]; I2 = 0.0%, atrial fibrillation (41 trials; 1.08 [0.92-1.25]; I2 = 0.0%, MI (10 trials; 0.96 [0.69-1.34]; I2 = 0.0%, stroke (10 trials; 0.99 [0.82-1.19]; I2 = 5.8%, and CV death (14 trials; 0.88 [0.72-1.07]; I2 = 0.0% with little between-study heterogeneity. The risk of atrial fibrillation appears to be modestly elevated for zoledronic acid (6 trials; 1.24 [0.96-1.61]; I2 = 0.0%, not for oral bisphosphonates (26 trials; 1.02 [0.83-1.24]; I2 = 0.0%. The CV effects did not vary by subgroups or study quality.Bisphosphonates do not have beneficial or harmful effects on atherosclerotic CV events, but zoledronic acid may modestly increase the risk of atrial fibrillation. Given the large reduction in fractures with bisphosphonates, changes in

  7. Food irradiation in the United States: irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment for fresh fruits and vegetables and for the control of microorganisms in meat and poultry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, Ralph T. E-mail: Ralph.T.Ross@usda.gov; Engeljohn, Dan

    2000-03-01

    Recently there has been a renewed focus on food irradiation in the United States (US) for the disinfestation of fresh fruits and vegetables to eliminate pests from imported agricultural commodities that could threaten the economic viability of American agriculture and for the control of bacterium E. coli 0157:H7 in beef, a pathogen that threatens the safety of the US domestic food supply. In January 1999 USDA/APHIS published in the Federal Register a rule which authorized irradiation as a guarantee treatment for papayas for movement from Hawaii to the US mainland. This treatment was never used for a number of reasons. However, in December, 1993, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published its final rule to terminate production and consumption of methyl bromide, the only remaining broad spectrum fumigant for disinfesting agricultural commodities for pests of quarantine significance on imported and exported commodities. With increased global trade pressures and the possible loss of methyl bromide as a fumigant for regulatory pests treatment made it imperative that practical treatment options be explored including irradiation. In May 1996, USDA/APHIS published a Notice of Policy which sets forth a policy statement that share positions and policies of USDA concerning the use of irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment. Subsequently in July, 1997, USDA/APHIS amended its Hawaiian regulation by increasing the dose required for papayas intended for interstate movement and by allowing carambolas and litchis also to move interstate as well. Fruits from Hawaii to the US mainland are currently being irradiated and distributed in commerce throughout the US Irradiation treatments now afford movement of many exotic fruits to the US mainland that could not be done earlier due to the lack of available treatment methods. To help combat this potential public health problem, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved treating red meat products. This process has been

  8. FTO gene polymorphisms and obesity risk: a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Xiaobo

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The pathogenesis of obesity is reportedly related to variations in the fat mass and an obesity-associated gene (FTO; however, as the number of reports increases, particularly with respect to varying ethnicities, there is a need to determine more precisely the effect sizes in each ethnic group. In addition, some reports have claimed ethnic-specific associations with alternative SNPs, and to that end there has been a degree of confusion. Methods We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, and BIOSIS Preview to identify studies investigating the associations between the five polymorphisms and obesity risk. Individual study odds ratios (OR and their 95% confidence intervals (CI were estimated using per-allele comparison. Summary ORs were estimated using a random effects model. Results We identified 59 eligible case-control studies in 27 articles, investigating 41,734 obesity cases and 69,837 healthy controls. Significant associations were detected between obesity risk and the five polymorphisms: rs9939609 (OR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.36, rs1421085 (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.53, rs8050136 (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.38, rs17817449 (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.68, and rs1121980 (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.62. Begg's and Egger's tests provided no evidence of publication bias for the polymorphisms except rs1121980. There is evidence of higher heterogeneity, with I2 test values ranging from 38.1% to 84.5%. Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests that FTO may represent a low-penetrance susceptible gene for obesity risk. Individual studies with large sample size are needed to further evaluate the associations between the polymorphisms and obesity risk in various ethnic populations.

  9. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

    2017-01-01

    We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

  10. ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS IN 3901 PATIENTS WITH STROKE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-Feng Liu; Guy van Melle; Julien Bogousslavsky

    2005-01-01

    Objective To estimate the frequency of various risk factors for overall stroke and to identify risk factors for cerebral infarction (CI) versus intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in a large hospital-based stroke registry.Methods Data from a total of 3901 patients, consisting of 3525 patients with CI and 376 patients with ICH were prospectively coded and entered into a computerized data bank.Results Hypertension and smoking were the most prominent factors affecting overall stroke followed by mild internal carotid artery stenosis (< 50%), hypercholesterolemia, transient ischemic attacks (TIAs), diabetes mellitus, and cardiac ischemia. Univariate analysis showed that factors in male significantly associated with CI versus ICH were old age, a family history of stroke, and intermittent claudication; whereas in female the factors were oral contraception and migraine. By multivariate analysis, in all patients, the factors significantly associated with CI as opposed to ICH were smoking, hypercholesterolemia, migraine, TIAs, atrial fibrillation, structural heart disease, and arterial disease. Hypertension was the only significant factor related with ICH versus CI.Conclusions The factors for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke are not exactly the same. Cardiac and arterial disease are the most powerful factors associated with CI rather than ICH.

  11. Dynamic Risk Analysis of Permanent Deformation of Sea Embankment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高玉峰; 刘汉龙; 余湘娟

    2001-01-01

    For evaluation of the permanent deformation of a sea embankment under stochastic earthquake excitation, a robust dynamic risk analytical method is presented based on conventional permanent deformation analysis and stochastic seismic response analysis. This method can predict not only the mean value of maximum permanent deformation but also the reliability corresponding to different deformation control standards. The earthquake motion is modelled as a stationary Gaussian filtered white noise random process. The predicted average maximum horizontal permanent displacement is in agreement with the conventional result. Further studied are the reliability of permanent deformation due to stochastic wave details at one seismic motion level and the risk of permanent deformation due to stochastic seismic strength, i. e., the maximum acceleration in a long period. Therefore, it is possible to make the optimal design in terms of safety and economy according to the importance of a sea embankment. It is suggested that the improved stochastic seismic model that can catch the behavior of the non-stationary random process for sea embankments should be further studied in future.

  12. Meta-analysis: serum vitamin D and breast cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Lu; Grandi, Norma; Raum, Elke; Haug, Ulrike; Arndt, Volker; Brenner, Hermann

    2010-08-01

    We reviewed and summarised observational epidemiological studies regarding the association between serum vitamin D (measured as 25(OH)D levels) and the risk of breast cancer (BC). Relevant studies published until September 2009 were identified by systematically electronic searching Ovid Medline, EMBASE and ISI Web of Knowledge databases and by cross-referencing. The following data were extracted in a standardised manner from eligible studies: first author, publication year, country, study design, characteristics of the study population, duration of follow-up, BC incidence/BC mortality according to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and the respective ratios, and covariates adjusted for in the analysis. All existing observational epidemiological studies that reported at least one serum 25(OH)D level in subjects in any time period before or after a diagnosis of breast cancer were included in our review. Individual and summary risk ratios (RRs) for an increase of serum 25(OH)D by 20ng/ml were calculated using meta-analysis methods. Only 25(OH)D was considered. Overall, 10 articles were included. Specific results for BC incidence were reported in nine articles and for BC mortality in one article. In meta-analyses, summary RRs (95% confidence interval (CI)) for an increase of 25(OH)D by 20ng/ml were 0.59 (0.48-0.73), 0.92 (0.82-1.04) and 0.73 (0.60-0.88) with P values of risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Dietary acrylamide and cancer risk: an updated meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelucchi, Claudio; Bosetti, Cristina; Galeone, Carlotta; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2015-06-15

    The debate on the potential carcinogenic effect of dietary acrylamide is open. In consideration of the recent findings from large prospective investigations, we conducted an updated meta-analysis on acrylamide intake and the risk of cancer at several sites. Up to July 2014, we identified 32 publications. We performed meta-analyses to calculate the summary relative risk (RR) of each cancer site for the highest versus lowest level of intake and for an increment of 10 µg/day of dietary acrylamide, through fixed-effects or random-effects models, depending on the heterogeneity test. Fourteen cancer sites could be examined. No meaningful associations were found for most cancers considered. The summary RRs for high versus low acrylamide intake were 0.87 for oral and pharyngeal, 1.14 for esophageal, 1.03 for stomach, 0.94 for colorectal, 0.93 for pancreatic, 1.10 for laryngeal, 0.88 for lung, 0.96 for breast, 1.06 for endometrial, 1.12 for ovarian, 1.00 for prostate, 0.93 for bladder and 1.13 for lymphoid malignancies. The RR was of borderline significance only for kidney cancer (RR = 1.20; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.00-1.45). All the corresponding continuous estimates ranged between 0.95 and 1.03, and none of them was significant. Among never-smokers, borderline associations with dietary acrylamide emerged for endometrial (RR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00-1.51) and ovarian (RR = 1.39; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00) cancers. This systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies indicates that dietary acrylamide is not related to the risk of most common cancers. A modest association for kidney cancer, and for endometrial and ovarian cancers in never smokers only, cannot be excluded. © 2014 UICC.

  14. Risk analysis and emergency management of ammonia installations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.M.; Gansevoort, J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Risk Assessment has been increasing for evaluating the risk of handling hazardous materials and land-use planning. This article reports on several studies carried out on the risk of handling, storage and transport of ammonia.

  15. Risk analysis and emergency management of ammonia installations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ham, J.M.; Gansevoort, J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Risk Assessment has been increasing for evaluating the risk of handling hazardous materials and land-use planning. This article reports on several studies carried out on the risk of handling, storage and transport of ammonia.

  16. The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life c...

  17. Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

    2010-04-15

    During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

  18. Beyond risk: a psychometric and cultural analysis of risk percepion in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Byung-Sun; Chung, Ik Jae [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2002-07-01

    A survey of technological risk perception in Korea was administered in 2001 with a special emphasis on nuclear risks. This paper summarizes the characteristics of risk perception through the analytic lens of psychometric paradigm. A group of experts identified 8 dimensions of risk; voluntariness, severity, effect manifestation, exposure pattern, controllability, familiarity, benefit and necessity. The survey with sample size of 1870 evaluates the perceived level of 25 technological risks including transportation, chemicals, environmental, industrial, as well as nuclear areas. Research findings confirm that the risk characteristics or dimensions are significant predictors of risk perception. Nuclear risks are perceived as involuntary, catastrophic, delayed, occasional, controllable, beneficiary, unfamiliar, and necessary. The paper underlines the need and the importance of nuclear power generation as an environmentally-friendly energy resource in Korea. Effective risk communication can improve the awareness and the understanding of nuclear risks as well as other technological risk, and ultimately foster the public acceptance of nuclear facilities.

  19. Risk factors for progressive ischemic stroke A retrospective analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Progressive ischemic stroke has higher fatality rate and disability rate than common cerebral infarction, thus it is very significant to investigate the early predicting factors related to the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke, thc potential pathological mechanism and the risk factors of early intervention for preventing the occurrence of progressive ischemic stroke and ameliorating its outcome.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the possible related risk factors in patients with progressive ishcemic stroke, so as to provide reference for the prevention and treatment of progressive ishcemic stroke.DESIGN: A retrospective analysis.SETTING: Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group.PARTICIPANTS: Totally 280 patients with progressive ischemic stroke were selected from the Department of Neurology, General Hospital of Beijing Coal Mining Group from March 2002 to June 2006, including 192 males and 88 females, with a mean age of (62±7) years old. They were all accorded with the diagnostic standards for cerebral infarction set by the Fourth National Academic Meeting for Cerebrovascular Disease in 1995, and confired by CT or MRI, admitted within 24 hours after attack, and the neurological defect progressed gradually or aggravated in gradients within 72 hours after attack, and the aggravation of neurological defect was defined as the neurological deficit score decreased by more than 2 points. Meanwhile,200 inpatients with non-progressive ischemic stroke (135 males and 65 females) were selected as the control group.METHODS: After admission, a univariate analysis of variance was conducted using the factors of blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, fever, leukocytosis, levels of blood lipids, fibrinogen, blood glucose and plasma homocysteine, cerebral arterial stenosis, and CT symptoms of early infarction, and the significant factors were involved in the multivariate non-conditional Logistic regression analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

  20. Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jing; WANG Jing-fei; WU Chun-yan; YANG Yan-tao; JI Zeng-tao; WANG Hong-bin

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in mainland China, a risk assessment framework was built.Risk factors were determined by analyzing the epidemic data using the brainstorming method; the analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and the integrated multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate the final result.The completed framework included the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, weights of risk factors, and integrated assessment methods. This risk assessment framework can be used to quantitatively analyze the outbreak and spread of HPAI in mainland China.

  1. Local Behavior of Sparse Analysis Regularization: Applications to Risk Estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vaiter, Samuel; Peyré, Gabriel; Dossal, Charles; Fadili, Jalal

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the recovery of an unknown signal $x_0$ from low dimensional noisy observations $y = \\Phi x_0 + w$, where $\\Phi$ is an ill-posed linear operator and $w$ accounts for some noise. We focus our attention to sparse analysis regularization. The recovery is performed by minimizing the sum of a quadratic data fidelity term and the $\\lun$-norm of the correlations between the sought after signal and atoms in a given (generally overcomplete) dictionary. The $\\lun$ prior is weighted by a regularization parameter $\\lambda > 0$ that accounts for the noise level. In this paper, we prove that minimizers of this problem are piecewise-affine functions of the observations $y$ and the regularization parameter $\\lambda$. As a byproduct, we exploit these properties to get an objectively guided choice of $\\lambda$. More precisely, we propose an extension of the Generalized Stein Unbiased Risk Estimator (GSURE) and show that it is an unbiased estimator of an appropriately defined risk. This encompasses special ca...

  2. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  3. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza; Wilson, Kevin J

    2016-04-01

    Many applications of risk analysis require us to jointly model multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to modeling joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial risk modeling. We discuss how such models may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by modeling two financial data sets.

  4. OVERVIEW OF THE SAPHIRE PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Wood, Ted; Knudsen, James; Ma, Zhegang

    2016-10-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) is a software application developed for performing a complete probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using a personal computer (PC) running the Microsoft Windows operating system. SAPHIRE Version 8 is funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and developed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). INL's primary role in this project is that of software developer and tester. However, INL also plays an important role in technology transfer by interfacing and supporting SAPHIRE users, who constitute a wide range of PRA practitioners from the NRC, national laboratories, the private sector, and foreign countries. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current technical capabilities found in SAPHIRE Version 8, including the user interface and enhanced solving algorithms.

  5. Risk analysis of sustainable urban drainage and irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ursino, Nadia

    2015-09-01

    Urbanization, by creating extended impervious areas, to the detriment of vegetated ones, may have an undesirable influence on the water and energy balances of urban environments. The storage and infiltration capacity of the drainage system lessens the negative influence of urbanization, and vegetated areas help to re-establish pre-development environmental conditions. Resource limitation, climate, leading to increasing water scarcity, demographic and socio-institutional shifts promote more integrated water management. Storm-water harvesting for landscape irrigation mitigates possible water restrictions for the urban population in drought scenarios. A new probabilistic model for sustainable rainfall drainage, storage and re-use systems was implemented in this study. Risk analysis of multipurpose storage capacities was generalized by the use of only a few dimensionless parameters and applied to a case study in a Mediterranean-type climate, although the applicability of the model is not restricted to any particular climatic type.

  6. Design of process displays based on risk analysis techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundtang Paulsen, J

    2004-05-01

    This thesis deals with the problems of designing display systems for process plants. We state the reasons why it is important to discuss information systems for operators in a control room, especially in view of the enormous amount of information available in computer-based supervision systems. The state of the art is discussed: How are supervision systems designed today and why? Which strategies are used? What kind of research is going on? Four different plants and their display systems, designed by the author, are described and discussed. Next we outline different methods for eliciting knowledge of a plant, particularly the risks, which is necessary information for the display designer. A chapter presents an overview of the various types of operation references: constitutive equations, set points, design parameters, component characteristics etc., and their validity in different situations. On the basis of her experience with the design of display systems; with risk analysis methods and from 8 years, as an engineer-on-shift at a research reactor, the author developed a method to elicit necessary information to the operator. The method, a combination of a Goal-Tree and a Fault-Tree, is described in some detail. Finally we address the problem of where to put the dot and the lines: when all information is on the table, how should it be presented most adequately. Included, as an appendix is a paper concerning the analysis of maintenance reports and visualization of their information. The purpose was to develop a software tool for maintenance supervision of components in a nuclear power plant. (au)

  7. Study of Hip Fracture Risk using Tree Structured Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In dieser Studie wird das Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei postmenopausalen Frauen untersucht, indem die Frauen in verschiedene Subgruppen hinsichtlich dieses Risikos klassifiziert werden. Frauen in einer gemeinsamen Subgruppe haben ein ähnliches Risiko, hingegen in verschiedenen Subgruppen ein unterschiedliches Hüftfraktur-Risiko. Die Subgruppen wurden mittels der Tree Structured Survival Analysis (TSSA aus den Daten von 7.665 Frauen der SOF (Study of Osteoporosis Fracture ermittelt. Bei allen Studienteilnehmerinnen wurde die Knochenmineraldichte (BMD von Unterarm, Oberschenkelhals, Hüfte und Wirbelsäule gemessen. Die Zeit von der BMD-Messung bis zur Hüftfraktur wurde als Endpunkt notiert. Eine Stichprobe von 75% der Teilnehmerinnen wurde verwendet, um die prognostischen Subgruppen zu bilden (Trainings-Datensatz, während die anderen 25% als Bestätigung der Ergebnisse diente (Validierungs-Datensatz. Aufgrund des Trainings-Datensatzes konnten mittels TSSA 4 Subgruppen identifiziert werden, deren Hüftfraktur-Risiko bei einem Follow-up von im Mittel 6,5 Jahren bei 19%, 9%, 4% und 1% lag. Die Einteilung in die Subgruppen erfolgte aufgrund der Bewertung der BMD des Ward'schen Dreiecks sowie des Oberschenkelhalses und nach dem Alter. Diese Ergebnisse konnten mittels des Validierungs-Datensatzes reproduziert werden, was die Sinnhaftigkeit der Klassifizierungregeln in einem klinischen Setting bestätigte. Mittels TSSA war eine sinnvolle, aussagekräftige und reproduzierbare Identifikation von prognostischen Subgruppen, die auf dem Alter und den BMD-Werten beruhen, möglich. In this paper we studied the risk of hip fracture for post-menopausal women by classifying women into different subgroups based on their risk of hip fracture. The subgroups were generated such that all the women in a particular subgroup had relatively similar risk while women belonging to two different subgroups had rather different risks of hip fracture. We used the Tree Structured

  8. DNA adducts and cancer risk in prospective studies: a pooled analysis and a meta-analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veglia, Fabrizio; Loft, Steffen; Matullo, Giuseppe;

    2008-01-01

    Bulky DNA adducts are biomarkers of exposure to aromatic compounds and of the ability of the individual to metabolically activate carcinogens and to repair DNA damage. Their ability to predict cancer onset is uncertain. We have performed a pooled analysis of three prospective studies on cancer risk...... in which bulky DNA adducts have been measured in blood samples collected from healthy subjects (N = 1947; average follow-up 51-137 months). In addition, we have performed a meta-analysis by identifying all articles on the same subject published up to the end of 2006, including case-control studies....... In the pooled analysis, a weakly statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer was apparent (14% per unit standard deviation change in adduct levels, 95% confidence interval 1-28%; using the weighted mean difference method, 0.15 SD, units higher adducts in cases than in controls...

  9. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  10. Risk of Hypothyroidism following Hemithyroidectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prognostic Studies.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verloop, H.; Louwerens, M.; Schoones, J.W.; Kievit, J.; Smit, J.W.A.; Dekkers, O.M.

    2012-01-01

    Context: The reported risk of hypothyroidism after hemithyroidectomy shows considerable heterogeneity in literature. Objective: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the overall risk of hypothyroidism, both clinical and subclinical, after hemithyroidectomy. Furthermore

  11. Coffee Consumption and Risk of Stroke: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Larsson, Susanna C; Orsini, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Coffee consumption has been inconsistently associated with risk of stroke. The authors conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies to quantitatively assess the association between coffee consumption and stroke risk...

  12. Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fragola, Joseph R

    1996-02-01

    Collection of empirical data and data base development for use in the prediction of the probability of future events has a long history. Dating back at least to the 17th century, safe passage events and mortality events were collected and analyzed to uncover prospective underlying classes and associated class attributes. Tabulations of these developed classes and associated attributes formed the underwriting basis for the fledgling insurance industry. Much earlier, master masons and architects used design rules of thumb to capture the experience of the ages and thereby produce structures of incredible longevity and reliability (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and Galvagni, R. Risk based decision analysis in design. Fourth SRA Europe Conference Proceedings, Rome, Italy, 18-20 October 1993). These rules served so well in producing robust designs that it was not until almost the 19th century that the analysis (Charlton, T.M., A History Of Theory Of Structures In The 19th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1982) of masonry voussoir arches, begun by Galileo some two centuries earlier (Galilei, G. Discorsi e dimostrazioni mathematiche intorno a due nuove science, (Discourses and mathematical demonstrations concerning two new sciences, Leiden, The Netherlands, 1638), was placed on a sound scientific basis. Still, with the introduction of new materials (such as wrought iron and steel) and the lack of theoretical knowledge and computational facilities, approximate methods of structural design abounded well into the second half of the 20th century. To this day structural designers account for material variations and gaps in theoretical knowledge by employing factors of safety (Benvenuto, E., An Introduction to the History of Structural Mechanics, Part II: Vaulted Structures and Elastic Systems, Springer-Verlag, NY, 1991) or codes of practice (ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, ASME, New York) originally developed in the 19th century (Antona, E., Fragola, J. and

  13. Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco

    Societies around the world are faced with flood risk, prompting authorities and decision makers to manage risk to protect population and assets. With climate change, urbanisation and population growth, flood risk changes constantly, requiring flood risk management strategies that are flexible...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...... measures, allows identifying flexible and robust flood risk management strategies. Based on it, this thesis investigates hierarchical flood protection systems, which encompass two, or more, hierarchically integrated flood protection structures on different spatial scales (e.g. dikes, local flood barriers...

  14. Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

    2016-01-01

    Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event co...

  15. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequen...

  16. Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty: an ESDMA Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J. H.

    2012-01-01

    Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk-capability approaches, and almost none use integrated risk-capability approaches that take dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty seriously into account. Thi...

  17. Model-based risk analysis of coupled process steps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerberg, Karin; Broberg-Hansen, Ernst; Sejergaard, Lars; Nilsson, Bernt

    2013-09-01

    A section of a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process involving the enzymatic coupling of a polymer to a therapeutic protein was characterized with regards to the process parameter sensitivity and design space. To minimize the formation of unwanted by-products in the enzymatic reaction, the substrate was added in small amounts and unreacted protein was separated using size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) and recycled to the reactor. The quality of the final recovered product was thus a result of the conditions in both the reactor and the SEC, and a design space had to be established for both processes together. This was achieved by developing mechanistic models of the reaction and SEC steps, establishing the causal links between process conditions and product quality. Model analysis was used to complement the qualitative risk assessment, and design space and critical process parameters were identified. The simulation results gave an experimental plan focusing on the "worst-case regions" in terms of product quality and yield. In this way, the experiments could be used to verify both the suggested process and the model results. This work demonstrates the necessary steps of model-assisted process analysis, from model development through experimental verification.

  18. 75 FR 6346 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Male Summer Squash...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-09

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation of fresh... to mitigate the pest risk. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public for...

  19. Comparative Analysis of Corporate Risk Management Practices in Croatian and Slovenian Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Miloš Sprčić, Danijela; Šević, Željko

    2008-01-01

    The paper explores differences as well as commonalities in corporate risk management practices and risk exposures in the large non-financial Slovenian and Croatian companies. Comparative analysis of survey results have revealed that the majority of analysed companies in both Croatia and Slovenia are using some form of risk management to manage interest-rate, foreign exchange, or commodity price risk. Regarding the intensity of influence of financial risks on the performance of the analysed co...

  20. Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by Parasaissetia nigra (Nietner in the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Parasaissetia nigra in the European Union (EU and identified and evaluated the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the principal pathways is assessed as moderately likely for plants for planting and very unlikely for living parts of plants, such as fruit and cut flowers with foliage, the discrepancy being mainly due to the difference in probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely outdoors in Mediterranean areas and indoors in the whole risk assessment area (where the pest has been present for a long time, and unlikely outdoors in non-Mediterranean areas. Spread within the EU is considered to be moderately likely because the pest can readily be moved with plant material but is limited by climatic conditions. The magnitude of the potential consequences is rated as minor. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of P. nigra from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for P. nigra (Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V. However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute only a very small proportion of the potential host plants of P. nigra,the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing the further introduction and spread of P. nigra in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when in combination.

  1. An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2011-07-01

    In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards.

  2. Study on risk analysis of supply chain enterprises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Xiaohui; Zhong Xiaobing; Song Shiji; Wu Cheng

    2006-01-01

    The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from the aspects of risk sharing, information sharing, change of inventory control mode, and supply chain flexibility. Finally, problems in current research on supply chain risk management are pointed out and a discussion on future research trend is presented.

  3. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group] [and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  4. Risk Profiles of Children Entering Residential Care: A Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagaman, Jessica L.; Trout, Alexandra L.; Chmelka, M. Beth; Thompson, Ronald W.; Reid, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Children in residential care are a heterogeneous population, presenting various combinations of risks. Existing studies on these children suggest high variability across multiple domains (e.g., academics, behavior). Given this heterogeneity, it is important to begin to identify the combinations and patterns of multiple risks, or risk profiles,…

  5. Patogenicidade de Beauveria bassiana ao psilídeo Diaphorina citri e compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários Beauveria bassiana pathogenicity to Diaphorina citri and compatibility of the fungus with phytosanitary products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Ferreira Pinto

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a patogenicidade de Beauveria bassiana a ninfas de Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae e verificar a compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários e sua persistência em plantas de citros. Ninfas de D. citri foram pulverizadas com B. bassiana, nas concentrações 5x10(6, 1x10(7, 5x10(7, 1x10(8, 5x10(8 e 1x10(9 conídios mL-1, para determinação da concentração letal. Para avaliação da compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários, extrato de nim e cinco inseticidas de quatro grupos químicos diferentes foram incorporados individualmente ao meio de cultura BDA em que o fungo foi cultivado. Avaliaram-se o crescimento vegetativo, a esporulação e a viabilidade do entomopatógeno. Plantas de citros, mantidas em casa de vegetação, foram tratadas primeiramente com os produtos fitossanitários e depois com o entomopatógeno. Avaliaram-se os tempos de exposição de 24 horas e de 7 e 14 dias. O fungo foi patogênico às ninfas de D. citri; a CL50 foi de 0,4x10(7 e a CL90 de 6,7x10(7 conidios mL-1, no décimo dia de avaliação. Em laboratório, os produtos fitosssanitários reduzem o crescimento do fungo. Em casa de vegetação, os produtos não afetam a sobrevivência do fungo nas plantas de citros.The objective of this work was to evaluate the pathogenicity of Beauveria bassiana to Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae nymphs, and to check the compatibility of the fungus with phytosanitary products, and its persistence in citrus plants. Nymphs of D. citri were sprayed with B. bassiana in the concentrations 5x10(6, 1x10(7, 5x10(7, 1x10(8, 5x10(8 and 1x10(9 conidia mL-1 for lethal concentration determination. In order to evaluate the compatibility of the phytosanitary products with the fungus, neem extract and five insecticides of four different chemical groups were individually added to PDA culture medium, in which the fungus was cultivated. Vegetative growth, sporulation and viability

  6. Foundations of risk analysis a knowledge and decision-oriented perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Aven

    2004-01-01

    Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis - expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support d

  7. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general proc...

  8. [Improvement of legislation basis for occupational risk analysis in occupational hygiene and work safety].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitseva, N V; Shur, P Z; Alekseev, V B; Andreeva, E E; Sliapniakov, D M

    2014-01-01

    One among priority trendsin health care in Russian Federation and abroad is minimization of occupational risks. The authors present evaluation of legislation basis for occupational risk analysis. The most promising trend in improvement of national legislation is its development on basis of internationally accepted documents, that-provides legislation basis for analysis of workers' health risk. Findings are that complete evaluation of occupational risk requires combination of data on work conditions and data of occupational control, and sometimes--with results of special research. Further improvement is needed for justifying hygienic norms with applying criteria of allowable risk for workers' health. Now development of risk analysis methodology enables quantitative evaluation of health risk via mathematic models including those describing risk evolution.

  9. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  10. RISK DISCLOSURE ANALYSIS IN THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ANNUAL REPORT USING FUZZY-SET QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Carmona

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the necessary and sufficient conditions of good Corporate Governance practices for high risk disclosure by firms in their Corporate Governance Annual Report. Additionally, we explore whether those recipes have changed during the financial crisis. With a sample of 271 Spanish listed companies, we applied fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to a database of financial and non-financial data. We report that Board of Directors independence, size, level of activity and gender diversity, CEO duality, Audit Committee independence, being audited by the Big Four auditing firms and the presence of institutional investors are associated with high risk disclosure. The conditions included in almost every combination are the presence of institutional investors and being audited by the Big Four. We found similar combinations for 2006 and 2012, while the analysis for 2009 showed the lowest number of causal configurations.

  11. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    OpenAIRE

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. T...

  12. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    OpenAIRE

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. T...

  13. Prospective Analysis of Risk for Hypothyroidism after Hemithyroidectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilijus Beisa

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To evaluate risk factors and to develop a simple scoring system to grade the risk of postoperative hypothyroidism (PH. Methods. In a controlled prospective study, 109 patients, who underwent hemithyroidectomy for a benign thyroid disease, were followed up for 12 months. The relation between clinical data and PH was analyzed for significance. A risk scoring system based on significant risk factors and clinical implications was developed. Results. The significant risk factors of PH were higher TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone level and lower ratio of the remaining thyroid weight to the patient’s weight (derived weight index. Based on the log of risk factor, preoperative TSH level greater than 1.4 mU/L was assigned 2 points; 1 point was for 0.8–1.4 mU/L. The derived weight index lower than 0.8 g/kg was assigned 1 point. A risk scoring system was calculated by summing the scores. The incidences of PH were 7.3%, 30.4%, and 69.2% according to the risk scores of 0-1, 2, and 3. Conclusion. Risk factors for PH are higher preoperative TSH level and lower derived weight index. Our developed risk scoring system is a valid and reliable tool to identify patients who are at risk for PH before surgery.

  14. Predicting adolescent's cyberbullying behavior: A longitudinal risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher P

    2015-06-01

    The current study used the risk factor approach to test the unique and combined influence of several possible risk factors for cyberbullying attitudes and behavior using a four-wave longitudinal design with an adolescent US sample. Participants (N = 96; average age = 15.50 years) completed measures of cyberbullying attitudes, perceptions of anonymity, cyberbullying behavior, and demographics four times throughout the academic school year. Several logistic regression equations were used to test the contribution of these possible risk factors. Results showed that (a) cyberbullying attitudes and previous cyberbullying behavior were important unique risk factors for later cyberbullying behavior, (b) anonymity and previous cyberbullying behavior were valid risk factors for later cyberbullying attitudes, and (c) the likelihood of engaging in later cyberbullying behavior increased with the addition of risk factors. Overall, results show the unique and combined influence of such risk factors for predicting later cyberbullying behavior. Results are discussed in terms of theory.

  15. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article was to evaluate the risks of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency. Particular attention was paid to the risk of investment on the Polish exchanges: Bitcurex, BitBay, BitMarket.pl and LocalBitcoins. To evaluate the risk there was used VaR measure. There were compared the risk of investing in Bitcoin cryptocurrency and the risk of investing in the selected "traditional" currencies. There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. The investment in cryptocurrency was characterized by higher risk than investing in “traditional” currencies. The Polish Bitcoin exchange LocalBitcoins was characterized by the highest risk and highest average daily rate of return.

  16. What Defines Us as Professionals in the Field of Risk Analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-08-11

    In a recent issue of Risk Analysis, the then-President of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), Pamela Williams, has some interesting reflections about the risk analysis field. She states that the ability and desire to tackle difficult problems using a risk analytical approach is what uniquely defines us as professionals in the field of risk analysis. The point of departure for her discussion is interviews with the plenary speakers of the 2014 SRA Annual Meeting, who addressed two divisive topics: hydraulic fracking and marijuana use. She points to several themes that invite contributions from the field of risk analysis, including: Has the full spectrum of potential risks and benefits been identified and weighted, and what are the risk tradeoffs or countervailing risks? Inspired by Williams's reflections, and by analyzing the issues raised in the interviews, this article seeks to clarify what our field is really providing. A main conclusion of the article is that it is essential to acknowledge that professionals in the field of risk analysis merely support the tackling of such problems, and that their genuine competence-that which distinguishes them from other professionals-lies in the risk analytical approach itself.

  17. Advanced probabilistic risk analysis using RAVEN and RELAP-7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Alfonsi, Andrea [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Cogliati, Joshua [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-06-01

    RAVEN, under the support of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program [1], is advancing its capability to perform statistical analyses of stochastic dynamic systems. This is aligned with its mission to provide the tools needed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) path-lead [2] under the Department Of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability program [3]. In particular this task is focused on the synergetic development with the RELAP-7 [4] code to advance the state of the art on the safety analysis of nuclear power plants (NPP). The investigation of the probabilistic evolution of accident scenarios for a complex system such as a nuclear power plant is not a trivial challenge. The complexity of the system to be modeled leads to demanding computational requirements even to simulate one of the many possible evolutions of an accident scenario (tens of CPU/hour). At the same time, the probabilistic analysis requires thousands of runs to investigate outcomes characterized by low probability and severe consequence (tail problem). The milestone reported in June of 2013 [5] described the capability of RAVEN to implement complex control logic and provide an adequate support for the exploration of the probabilistic space using a Monte Carlo sampling strategy. Unfortunately the Monte Carlo approach is ineffective with a problem of this complexity. In the following year of development, the RAVEN code has been extended with more sophisticated sampling strategies (grids, Latin Hypercube, and adaptive sampling). This milestone report illustrates the effectiveness of those methodologies in performing the assessment of the probability of core damage following the onset of a Station Black Out (SBO) situation in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The first part of the report provides an overview of the available probabilistic analysis capabilities, ranging from the different types of distributions available, possible sampling

  18. Risk assessment for benefits analysis: framework for analysis of a thyroid-disrupting chemical.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrad, Daniel A; Baetcke, Karl; Dockins, Chris; Griffiths, Charles W; Hill, Richard N; Murphy, Patricia A; Owens, Nicole; Simon, Nathalie B; Teuschler, Linda K

    Benefit-cost analysis is of growing importance in developing policies to reduce exposures to environmental contaminants. To quantify health benefits of reduced exposures, economists generally rely on dose-response relationships estimated by risk assessors. Further, to be useful for benefits analysis, the endpoints that are quantified must be expressed as changes in incidence of illnesses or symptoms that are readily understood by and perceptible to the layperson. For most noncancer health effects and for nonlinear carcinogens, risk assessments generally do not provide the dose-response functions necessary for economic benefits analysis. This article presents the framework for a case study that addresses these issues through a combination of toxicology, epidemiology, statistics, and economics. The case study assesses a chemical that disrupts proper functioning of the thyroid gland, and considers the benefits of reducing exposures in terms of both noncancer health effects (hypothyroidism) and thyroid cancers. The effects are presumed to be due to a mode of action involving interference with thyroid-pituitary functioning that would lead to nonlinear dose response. The framework integrates data from animal testing, statistical modeling, human data from the medical and epidemiological literature, and economic methodologies and valuation studies. This interdisciplinary collaboration differs from the more typical approach in which risk assessments and economic analyses are prepared independently of one another. This framework illustrates particular approaches that may be useful for expanded quantification of adverse health effects, and demonstrates the potential of such interdisciplinary approaches. Detailed implementation of the case study framework will be presented in future publications.

  19. Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José L.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing the number and locations of exposed people is a crucial step in landslide risk management and emergency planning. The available population statistical data frequently have insufficient detail for an accurate assessment of potentially exposed people to hazardous events, mainly when they occur at the local scale, such as with landslides. The present study aims to apply dasymetric cartography to improving population spatial resolution and to assess the potentially exposed population. An additional objective is to compare the results with those obtained with a more common approach that uses, as spatial units, basic census units, which are the best spatial data disaggregation and detailed information available for regional studies in Portugal. Considering the Portuguese census data and a layer of residential building footprint, which was used as ancillary information, the number of exposed inhabitants differs significantly according to the approach used. When the census unit approach is used, considering the three highest landslide susceptible classes, the number of exposed inhabitants is in general overestimated. Despite the associated uncertainties of a general cost-benefit analysis, the presented methodology seems to be a reliable approach for gaining a first approximation of a more detailed estimation of exposed people. The approach based on dasymetric cartography allows the spatial resolution of population over large areas to be increased and enables the use of detailed landslide susceptibility maps, which are valuable for improving the exposed population assessment.

  20. Arctic climate change and oil spill risk analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    William B. Samuels; David E. Amstutz; Heather A. Crowley

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to:1) describe the effects of climate change in the Arctic and its impact on circulation,2) describe hindcast data used in the Ocean Energy Management,Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model,3)evaluate alternatives such as using forecast results in the OSRA model,and 4) recommend future studies.Effects of climate change on winds,sea ice,ocean circulation and river discharge in the Arctic and impacts on surface circulation can be evaluated only through a series of specially designed numerical experiments using highresolution coupled ice-ocean models to elucidate the sensitivity of the models to various parameterizations or forcings.The results of these experiments will suggest what mechanisms are most important in controlling model response and guide inferences on how OSRA may respond to different climate change scenarios.Climatological change in the Arctic could lead to drastic alterations of wind,sea ice cover and concentration,and surface current fields all of which would influence hypothetical oil spill trajectories.Because of the pace at which conditions are changing,BOEMRE needs to assess whether forecast ice/ocean model results might contain useful information for the purposes of calculating hypothetical oil spill trajectories.

  1. Distal wound complications following pedal bypass: analysis of risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robison, J G; Ross, J P; Brothers, T E; Elliott, B M

    1995-01-01

    Wound complications of the pedal incision continue to compromise successful limb salvage following aggressive revascularization. Significant distal wound disruption occurred in 14 of 142 (9.8%) patients undergoing pedal bypass with autogenous vein for limb salvage between 1986 and 1993. One hundred forty-two pedal bypass procedures were performed for rest pain in 66 patients and tissue necrosis in 76. Among the 86 men and 56 women, 76% were diabetic and 73% were black. All but eight patients had a history of diabetes and/or tobacco use. Eight wounds were successfully managed with maintenance of patent grafts from 5 to 57 months. Exposure of a patent graft precipitated amputation in three patients, as did graft occlusion in an additional patient. One graft was salvaged by revision to the peroneal artery and one was covered by a local bipedicled flap. Multiple regression analysis identified three factors associated with wound complications at the pedal incision site: diabetes mellitus (p = 0.03), age > 70 years (p = 0.03), and rest pain (p = 0.05). Ancillary techniques ("pie-crusting") to reduce skin tension resulted in no distal wound problems among 15 patients considered to be at greatest risk for wound breakdown. Attention to technique of distal graft tunneling, a wound closure that reduces tension, and control of swelling by avoiding dependency on and use of gentle elastic compression assume crucial importance in minimizing pedal wound complications following pedal bypass.

  2. Sanitary risk analysis for farm workers exposed to environmental pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Pascuzzi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In Italy, a large number of agricultural areas are contaminated by organic and inorganic polluting substances. In such areas, the agricultural operators come into contact with the environmental contaminants through inhalation and dermic contact with dusts and vapour, and this exposure can potentially alter the biological equilibrium with consequent poisonings and/or work-related illness. The aim of this paper is to apply a methodological procedure for the numerical evaluation of the health risk for agricultural employees operating in open fields or inside greenhouses located in areas contaminated with organic pollutants. This procedure is in response to the lack of calculation models concerning these types of environment and agricultural activities. As a case study, this methodology has been applied to an agricultural area of southern Italy characterised by the presence of pollutants. The results underline that in this area there is a smaller concentration of pollutants in open field cultivations than inside greenhouses owing to a phenomenon of dispersion into the atmosphere. This numeric analysis will later be verified by measurements carried out in situ in order to evaluate the real situation on the ground.

  3. Risk analysis of tyramine concentration in food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doudová, L.; Buňka, F.; Michálek, J.; Sedlačík, M.; Buňková, L.

    2013-10-01

    The contribution is focused on risk analysis in food microbiology. This paper evaluates the effect of selected factors on tyramine production in bacterial strains of Lactococcus genus which were assigned as tyramine producers. Tyramine is a biogenic amine sythesized from an amino acid called tyrosine. It can be found in certain foodstuffs (often in cheese), and can cause a pseudo-response in sensitive individuals. The above-mentioned bacteria are commonly used in the biotechnological process of cheese production as starter cultures. The levels of factors were chosen with respect to the conditions which can occur in this technological process. To describe and compare tyramine production in chosen microorganisms, generalized regression models were applied. Tyramine production was modelled by Gompertz curves according to the selected factors (the lactose concentration of 0-1% w/v, NaCl 0-2% w/v and aero/anaerobiosis) for 3 different types of bacterial cultivation. Moreover, estimates of model parameters were calculated and tested; multiple comparisons were discussed as well. The aim of this paper is to find a combination of factors leading to a similar tyramine production level.

  4. Framework for risk analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.; Hoopes, B.L.; Pelton, M.A.; McDonald, J.P.; Gelston, G.M.; Taira, R.Y. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1998-05-01

    The objectives of this workshop are to (1) provide the NRC staff and the public with an overview of currently available Federally-Sponsored dose models appropriate for decommissioning assessments and (2) discuss NRC staff-developed questions related to model selection criteria with the final rule on ``Radiological Criteria for License Termination`` (62 FR 39058). For over 40 years, medium specific models have been and will continue to be developed in an effort to understand and predict environmental phenomena, including fluid-flow patterns, contaminant migration and fate, human or wildlife exposures, impacts from specific toxicants to specific species and their organs, cost-benefit analyses, impacts from remediation alternatives, etc. For nearly 40 years, medium-specific models have been combined for either sequential or concurrent assessments. The evolution of multiple-media assessment tools has followed a logic progression. To allow a suite of users the flexibility and versatility to construct, combine, and couple attributes that meet their specific needs without unnecessarily burdening the user with extraneous capabilities, the development of a computer-based methodology to implement a Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) was begun in 1994. FRAMES represents a platform which links elements together and yet does not represent the models that are linked to or within it; therefore, changes to elements that are linked to or within FRAMES do not change the framework.

  5. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picone, Sara; Valstar, Johan; van Gaans, Pauline; Grotenhuis, Tim; Rijnaarts, Huub

    2012-05-01

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion.

  6. Comparative Analysis of Risk, Return and Diversification of Mutual Fund

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rais Ahmad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mutual Funds have become a widely popular and effective way for investors to participate in financial markets in an easy, low-cost fashion, while muting risk characteristics by spreading the investment across different types of securities, also known as diversification. It can play a central role in an individual's investment strategy. With the plethora of schemes available in the Indian markets, an investors needs to evaluate and consider various factors before making an investment decision. The present investigation is aimed to examine the performance of safest investment instrument in the security market in the eyes of investors. Five mutual fund large cap scheme have been selected for this purpose. The examination is achieved by assessing various financial tests like Sharpe Ratio, Standard Deviation, Alpha, and Beta. Furthermore, in-depth analysis also has been done by considering return over the period of last five years on various basis, expenses ratio, corpus-size etc. The data has been taken from various websites of mutual fund schemes and from www.valueresearch.com. The study will be helpful for the researchers and financial analysts to analyze various securities or funds while selecting the best investment alternative out of the galaxy of investment alternatives.

  7. Reliability and risk analysis using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, D.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses preliminary research at Sandia National Laboratories into the application of artificial neural networks for reliability and risk analysis. The goal of this effort is to develop a reliability based methodology that captures the complex relationship between uncertainty in material properties and manufacturing processes and the resulting uncertainty in life prediction estimates. The inputs to the neural network model are probability density functions describing system characteristics and the output is a statistical description of system performance. The most recent application of this methodology involves the comparison of various low-residue, lead-free soldering processes with the desire to minimize the associated waste streams with no reduction in product reliability. Model inputs include statistical descriptions of various material properties such as the coefficients of thermal expansion of solder and substrate. Consideration is also given to stochastic variation in the operational environment to which the electronic components might be exposed. Model output includes a probabilistic characterization of the fatigue life of the surface mounted component.

  8. Sensitivity analysis on parameters and processes affecting vapor intrusion risk

    KAUST Repository

    Picone, Sara

    2012-03-30

    A one-dimensional numerical model was developed and used to identify the key processes controlling vapor intrusion risks by means of a sensitivity analysis. The model simulates the fate of a dissolved volatile organic compound present below the ventilated crawl space of a house. In contrast to the vast majority of previous studies, this model accounts for vertical variation of soil water saturation and includes aerobic biodegradation. The attenuation factor (ratio between concentration in the crawl space and source concentration) and the characteristic time to approach maximum concentrations were calculated and compared for a variety of scenarios. These concepts allow an understanding of controlling mechanisms and aid in the identification of critical parameters to be collected for field situations. The relative distance of the source to the nearest gas-filled pores of the unsaturated zone is the most critical parameter because diffusive contaminant transport is significantly slower in water-filled pores than in gas-filled pores. Therefore, attenuation factors decrease and characteristic times increase with increasing relative distance of the contaminant dissolved source to the nearest gas diffusion front. Aerobic biodegradation may decrease the attenuation factor by up to three orders of magnitude. Moreover, the occurrence of water table oscillations is of importance. Dynamic processes leading to a retreating water table increase the attenuation factor by two orders of magnitude because of the enhanced gas phase diffusion. © 2012 SETAC.

  9. The risk analysis of levee systems: a comparison of international best practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tourment R.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A risk analysis of a levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of loading conditions, the levee performance and the vulnerability to flooding of assets in the protected area. This process, which requires the identification and examination of all the components that determine the risk of flooding in a system, includes different steps. Among these steps, ‘levee system failure analysis’, ‘flood consequences analysis’ and ‘risk attribution’ have benefitted from the most important advances of recent research projects. This paper presents a critical analysis of the latest methods to conduct levee system failure analysis, flood consequences analysis and risk attribution. It shows how these methods can contribute to improving the efficiency of the risk analysis process and therefore the design and management of levee systems.

  10. Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

    2016-12-01

    In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

  11. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011).

  12. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  13. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  14. A Risk-Analysis Approach to Implementing Web-Based Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricketts, Chris; Zakrzewski, Stan

    2005-01-01

    Computer-Based Assessment is a risky business. This paper proposes the use of a model for web-based assessment systems that identifies pedagogic, operational, technical (non web-based), web-based and financial risks. The strategies and procedures for risk elimination or reduction arise from risk analysis and management and are the means by which…

  15. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  16. Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

    2010-01-01

    The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

  17. Credit risk determinants analysis: Empirical evidence from Chinese commercial banks

    OpenAIRE

    LU, ZONGQI

    2013-01-01

    Abstract In order to investigate the potential determinants of credit risk in Chinese commercial banks, a panel dataset includes 342 bank-year observations from 2003 to 2012 in Chinese commercial banks are used to quantify the relationship between the selected variables and Chinese bank’s credit risk. Based on several robust test, the empirical results suggest the inflation rate and loan loss provision is significantly positive to Chinese commercial banks’ credit risk, on the other hand, m...

  18. RISK ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FOR CRITICAL LOGISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Düerkop

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Logistical infrastructure builds the backbone of an economy. Without an effective logistical infrastructure in place, the supply for both enterprises and consumers might not be met. But even a high-quality logistical infrastructure can be threatened by risks. Thus, it is important to identify, analyse, and evaluate risks for logistical infrastructure that might threaten logistical processes. Only if those risks are known and their impact estimated, decision makers can implement counteractive measures to reduce risks. In this article, we develop a network-based approach that allows for the evaluation of risks and their consequences onto the logistical network. We will demonstrate the relevance of this approach by applying it to the logistics network of the central German state of Hesse. Even though transport data is extensively tracked and recorded nowadays, typical daily risks, like accidents on a motorway, and extraordinary risks, like a bridge at risk to collapse, terrorist attacks or climate-related catastrophes, are not systematically anticipated. Several studies unveiled recently that the overall impact for an economy of possible failures of single nodes and/or edges in a network are not calculated, and particularly critical edges are not identified in advance. We address this information gap by a method that helps to identify and quantify risks in a given network. To reach this objective, we define a mathematical optimization model that quantifies the current “risk-related costs” of the overall network and quantify the risk by investigating the change of the overall costs in the case a risk is realized.

  19. Scientific Opinion on the risk to plant health posed by Eutetranychus orientalis Klein in the EU territory, with the identification and evaluation of risk reduction options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Eutetranychus orientalis in the European Union (EU and evaluated the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the plants for planting pathway is assessed as very likely, while entry through other pathways is estimated as moderately likely to unlikely owing to the different probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely in Mediterranean areas and from moderately likely to unlikely in non-Mediterranean areas, because of unfavourable environmental conditions. Spread is rated as very likely because of the many ways the pest can spread, its polyphagy and the wide distribution of hosts. Impact is rated as minor, with an expected increase in the damage when populations of natural enemies are severely affected by control measures and/or when environmental conditions are stressful for the host. However, the lack of information resulted in an overall medium level of uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of E. orientalis from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for this pest(Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V. However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute an extremely small proportion of the potential host plants of E. orientalis, the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing further introduction and spread of E. orientalis in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when

  20. Risk Analysis and Consumer Protection in B2C Transactions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jian-zheng; SHI Qi-liang; Gary Millar; Ruhul A. Sarker

    2005-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that the perceived lack of security is a major obstacle to the wider acceptance of e-commerce. To overcome this barrier, businesses need to implement comprehensive consumer protection systems that protect consumers during every stage of the purchasing process. This paper used the consumer behaviour model as the basis for analysing risks in Bussiness-to-Consumer (B2C) transactions. Four categories of risks were identified: information, agreement, payment and delivery risk. By combining these risk categories with the three dimensions of management, technology and legislation, a comprehensive B2C consumer protection framework is developed.

  1. Uncertainty analysis of EUSES: Improving risk management through probabilistic risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Rikken MGJ; Poel P van der; ECO

    1997-01-01

    In risk assessment of new and existing substances, it is current practice to characterise risk using a deterministic quotient of the exposure concentration, or the dose, and a no-effect level. Feelings of uncertainty are tackled by introducing worst-case assumptions in the methodology. Since this pr

  2. Breast Image Analysis for Risk Assessment, Detection, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giger, M.L.; Karssemeijer, N.; Schnabel, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    The role of breast image analysis in radiologists' interpretation tasks in cancer risk assessment, detection, diagnosis, and treatment continues to expand. Breast image analysis methods include segmentation, feature extraction techniques, classifier design, biomechanical modeling, image registration

  3. Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007; Metode for miljoerettet risikoanalyse (MIRA) revisjon 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-04-15

    OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

  4. Reincarceration Risk Among Men with Mental Illnesses Leaving Prison: A Risk Environment Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrenger, Stacey L; Draine, Jeffrey; Angell, Beth; Herman, Daniel

    2017-02-15

    Reentry interventions for persons with mental illness leaving prison have consisted primarily of linkage to mental health services and have produced mixed results on psychiatric and criminal recidivism. These interventions primarily focus on intra-individual risk factors. However, social and environmental factors may also increase risk of reincarceration by constraining choices and pro-social opportunities for community reintegration upon release from prison. In order to add to the knowledge base on understanding reincarceration risk for men with mental illnesses leaving prison, we examined interpersonal and environmental factors that exposed men to heightened risk for reincarceration. As part of a larger study examining the effectiveness of Critical Time Intervention for men with mental illness leaving prison, in-depth interviews were conducted with 28 men within 6 months of release from prison. Policies and practices at local and state levels, community conditions, and interpersonal obligation and conflict were identified as increasing risk for reincarceration.

  5. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  6. Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paisley, Larry; de Koeijer, Aline; Hagenaars, Thomas J.

    2008-01-01

    of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs......). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, sucessful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSE's of animal origin...

  7. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  8. Application of artificial intelligence to risk analysis for forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel L. Schmoldt

    2001-01-01

    Forest ecosystems are subject to a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances that extract a penalty from human population values. Such value losses (undesirable effects) combined with their likelihoods of occurrence constitute risk. Assessment or prediction of risk for various events is an important aid to forest management. Artificial intelligence (AI)...

  9. Risk Reporting: An Analysis of the German Banking Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. van Oorschot (Laura)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractExecutive summary The recent financial crisis resulted in an increased attention on the risks of banks and their financial instruments. This article discusses the outcomes of a study on the quantity and quality of market, credit, and liquidity risk disclosures and the relationship 1)

  10. Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.

    2010-01-01

    Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study repor

  11. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  12. Climate risk management in Central Asian agriculture. A situation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawlowski, Ira

    2012-03-15

    The region of Central Asia, and in particularly the agricultural sector, is extremely vulnerable to climate change risks. The countries have started to develop adaptation strategies and climate risk management strategies, most of them described in the National Communications on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These and other efforts are presented and commented in this paper.

  13. Mammographic density and breast cancer risk: a mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Megan S; Bertrand, Kimberly A; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Rosner, Bernard A; Liao, Xiaomei; Adami, Hans-Olov; Tamimi, Rulla M

    2016-09-21

    High mammographic density (MD) is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. However, it is unclear whether high MD is an intermediate phenotype or whether breast cancer risk factors influence breast cancer risk and MD independently. Our study population included 1290 invasive breast cancer cases and 3422 controls from the Nurses' Health Studies. We estimated the percent of the total association between the risk factor and breast cancer that was mediated by MD. In both pre- and postmenopausal women, the association between history of biopsy-confirmed benign breast disease and risk was partially mediated by percent MD (percent mediated (PM) = 17 %, p breast cancer risk were substantially mediated by percent MD (PM = 73 %, p = 0.05 and PM = 82 %, p = 0.04, respectively). In postmenopausal women, the proportion of the associations of childhood somatotype and adolescent somatotype that were mediated by percent MD were lower (PM = 26 %, p = 0.01 for both measures). Hormone therapy use at mammogram was significantly mediated by percent MD in postmenopausal women (PM = 22 %, p breast cancer, were not mediated by percent MD. Percent MD partially mediated some of the associations between risk factors and breast cancer, though the magnitude varied by risk factor and menopausal status. These findings suggest that high MD may be an intermediate in some biological pathways for breast cancer development.

  14. Metabolic Syndrome Is Associated with Increased Breast Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ruchi Bhandari; Kelley, George A; Hartley, Tara A.; Rockett, Ian R. H.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Although individual metabolic risk factors are reported to be associated with breast cancer risk, controversy surrounds risk of breast cancer from metabolic syndrome (MS). We report the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between MS and breast cancer risk in all adult females. Methods. Studies were retrieved by searching four electronic reference databases [PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science, and ProQu...

  15. [Discussion on the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Honglei; Peng, Xiaolong; Tian, Xiaojun; Wang, Peilian

    2014-09-01

    This paper discussed the building of post market risk analysis method in hemodialysis device from the point of government supervision. By proposing practical research methods for post market risk identification and estimation on hemodialysis device, providing technical guidance for government to put risk management of hemodialysis device into effect, and offering reference for enterprises to carry out post market risk evaluation on their products as well.

  16. SAFETY ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BRIDGES HEALTH MONITORING WITH MONTE CARLO METHODS

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    With the increasing requirements of building safety in the past few decades, healthy monitoring and risk assessment of structures is of more and more importance. Especially since traffic loads are heavier, risk Assessment for bridges are essential. In this paper we take advantage of Monte Carlo Methods to analysis the safety of bridge and monitoring the destructive risk. One main goal of health monitoring is to reduce the risk of unexpected damage of artificial objects

  17. Risk and reliability analysis theory and applications : in honor of Prof. Armen Der Kiureghian

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book presents a unique collection of contributions from some of the foremost scholars in the field of risk and reliability analysis. Combining the most advanced analysis techniques with practical applications, it is one of the most comprehensive and up-to-date books available on risk-based engineering. All the fundamental concepts needed to conduct risk and reliability assessments are covered in detail, providing readers with a sound understanding of the field and making the book a powerful tool for students and researchers alike. This book was prepared in honor of Professor Armen Der Kiureghian, one of the fathers of modern risk and reliability analysis.

  18. In silico analysis of nanomaterials hazard and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Yoram; Rallo, Robert; Liu, Rong; Liu, Haoyang Haven

    2013-03-19

    false positive relative to false negative predictions and the reliability of toxicity data. To establish the environmental impact of ENMs identified as toxic, researchers will need to estimate the potential level of environmental exposure concentration of ENMs in the various media such as air, water, soil, and vegetation. When environmental monitoring data are not available, models of ENMs fate and transport (at various levels of complexity) serve as alternative approaches for estimating exposure concentrations. Risk management decisions regarding the manufacturing, use, and environmental regulations of ENMs would clearly benefit from both the assessment of potential ENMs exposure concentrations and suitable toxicity metrics. The decision process should consider the totality of available information: quantitative and qualitative data and the analysis of nanomaterials toxicity, and fate and transport behavior in the environment. Effective decision-making to address the potential impacts of nanomaterials will require considerations of the relevant environmental, ecological, technological, economic, and sociopolitical factors affecting the complete lifecycle of nanomaterials, while accounting for data and modeling uncertainties. Accordingly, researchers will need to establish standardized data management and analysis tools through nanoinformatics as a basis for the development of rational decision tools.

  19. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-10-05

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties.

  20. Terrorism risks and cost-benefit analysis of aviation security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Mark G; Mueller, John

    2013-05-01

    We evaluate, for the U.S. case, the costs and benefits of three security measures designed to reduce the likelihood of a direct replication of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. To do so, we assess risk reduction, losses, and security costs in the context of the full set of security layers. The three measures evaluated are installed physical secondary barriers (IPSB) to restrict access to the hardened cockpit door during door transitions, the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) Program. In the process, we examine an alternate policy measure: doubling the budget of the FFDO program to $44 million per year, installing IPSBs in all U.S. aircraft at a cost of $13.5 million per year, and reducing funding for FAMS by 75% to $300 million per year. A break-even cost-benefit analysis then finds the minimum probability of an otherwise successful attack required for the benefit of each security measures to equal its cost. We find that the IPSB is costeffective if the annual attack probability of an otherwise successful attack exceeds 0.5% or one attack every 200 years. The FFDO program is costeffective if the annual attack probability exceeds 2%. On the other hand, more than two otherwise successful attacks per year are required for FAMS to be costeffective. A policy that includes IPSBs, an increased budget for FFDOs, and a reduced budget for FAMS may be a viable policy alternative, potentially saving hundreds of millions of dollars per year with consequences for security that are, at most, negligible.

  1. NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

    2008-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

  2. A suite of models to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinet, C.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Werf, van der W.

    2012-01-01

    In the frame of the EU project PRATIQUE (KBBE-2007-212459 Enhancements of pest risk analysis techniques) a suite of models was developed to support the quantitative assessment of spread in pest risk analysis. This dataset contains the model codes (R language) for the four models in the suite. Three

  3. P2P Lending Risk Contagion Analysis Based on a Complex Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes two major channels of P2P lending risk contagion in China—direct risk contagion between platforms and indirect risk contagion with other financial organizations as the contagion medium. Based on this analysis, the current study constructs a complex network model of P2P lending risk contagion in China and performs dynamics analogue simulations in order to analyze general characteristics of direct risk contagion among China’s online P2P lending platforms. The assumed conditions are that other financial organizations act as the contagion medium, with variations in the risk contagion characteristics set under the condition of significant information asymmetry in Internet lending. It is indicated that, compared to direct risk contagion among platforms, both financial organizations acting as the contagion medium and information asymmetry magnify the effect of risk contagion. It is also found that the superposition of media effects and information asymmetry is more likely to magnify the risk contagion effect.

  4. The risk analysis during production process of an innovative baby carriage with a bike function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nowiński Emil

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the risk assesment of damages occurance in production stage of a babycarriage with a bike function. The analysis of risk is done by using the FMEA – Failure Made and Effect Analysis that is used in aviation and automotive industry. This way of innovative product assessment allows to evaluate the risk of defects and indicate the priorities of quality for key parts as well as the device.

  5. 78 FR 24155 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate Movement of Sapote Fruit From...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-24

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for Interstate... we have prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the interstate... movement of sapote fruit from Puerto Rico. We are making the pest risk analysis available to the public...

  6. 75 FR 78207 - Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the Importation of Fresh Rambutan Fruit...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-15

    ... Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Notice of Availability of a Pest Risk Analysis for the... prepared a pest risk analysis that evaluates the risks associated with the importation into the continental... importation of fresh rambutan fruit from Malaysia and Vietnam. We are making the pest risk analysis...

  7. The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Russo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006. This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.

  8. Meta-analysis of studies using statins as a reducer for primary liver cancer risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Guo-Chao; Liu, Yan; Ye, Yuan-Yuan; Hao, Fa-Bao; Wang, Kang; Gong, Jian-Ping

    2016-01-01

    A protective effect of statins on primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has been suggested. However, issues about the dose–response relationship, the protective effect of individual statins, and PLC risk reduction among at-risk populations remain unsolved. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for studies providing the risk ratio (RR) on statins and PLC risk. Summary RRs were calculated using a random-effects model. Twenty-five studies were identified. Stain use was significantly associated with a reduced risk of PLC (RR = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53–0.69). The summary RR for every additional 50 cumulative defined daily doses per year was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83–0.91). Evidence of a non-linear dose–response relationship between statins and PLC risk was found (Pnon-linearity < 0.01). All individual statins significantly reduced PLC risk, and the risk reduction was more evident with rosuvastatin. The inverse association between statins and PLC risk remained among populations with common risk factors. Subgroup analyses revealed more significant reduction in PLC risk by statins in high- versus non-high-risk populations (Pinteraction = 0.02). Overall, these findings add to our understanding of the association between statins and PLC risk. Whether statin use is causally associated with a reduced risk of PLC should be further studied. PMID:27198922

  9. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  10. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  11. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  12. Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bell

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative

  13. Debris flow and landslide hazard mapping and risk analysis in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xilin LIU; Chengjun YU; Peijun SHI; Weihua FANG

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses the hazardousness,vulnerability and risk of debris flow and landslide in China and compiles maps with a scale of 1∶6000000,based on Geographical Information System (GIS) technology,hazard regionalization map,socioeconomic data from 2000.Integrated hazardousness of debris flow and landslide is equivalent to the sum of debris flow hazardousness and landslide hazardousness.Vulnerability is assessed by employing a simplified assessment model.Risk is calculated by the following formula:Risk =Hazardousness × Vulnerability.The analysis results of assessment of hazardousness,vulnerability and risk show that there are extremely high risk regions of 104 km2,high risk regions of 283008 km2,moderate risk regions of 3161815 km2,low risk regions of 3299604km2,and extremely low risk regions of 2681709 km2.Exploitation activities should be prohibited in extremely high risk and high risk regions and restricted in moderate risk regions.The present study on risk analysis of debris flow and landslide not only sheds new light on the future work in this direction but also provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation policy making.

  14. Import risk analysis: A case study of white shrimp in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Supamattaya, K.

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available As the culture industry of black tiger shrimp in Thailand has encountered several problems causing unsuccessful shrimp culture over decades, a new non-indigenous marine species, i.e. Pacific white shrimp (Penaeus vannamei was imported into Thailand as an alternation. However, imported white shrimp may carry some infectious agents which pose serious threats on aquatic species native to Thailand. Therefore, in the present study the import risk analysis (IRA was conducted to identify any hazard and estimate the risk presented by importation of white shrimp. The process involves the risk analysis steps of hazard identification and characterization, risk assessment and risk management. The risks associated with individual diseases and disease agents of white shrimp have been evaluated. Risk assessment conducted using risk evaluation matrix indicated high risk of Taura syndrome virus (TSV, White spot syndrome virus (WSSV and Infectious hypodermal and haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV in imported white shrimp. The iterative process of risk management leads to a set of acceptable measures or strategies for each identified hazard for which the unrestricted risk is considered higher than appropriate level of protection. These measures or strategies will reduce risk to a level that is considered acceptable. Where measures or strategies that reduce the risk associated with a particular hazard to an acceptable level cannot be identified, permission to import the relevant commodity will be denied. The measures implemented in the control of white shrimp imports constitute quarantine and health certificate issued by exporting countries.

  15. CFD analysis of dense gas dispersion in indoor environment for risk assessment and risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, M; Jayanti, S; Swaminathan, T

    2012-03-30

    Environmental risks are inherent in the operation of any complex chemical process industry. The indoor release of hazardous chemicals that are denser than air is a topic of special concern, since dense clouds tend to persist at ground level or human breath level which leads to a magnification of their harmful potential. In the present work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based model for indoor risk assessment considering accidental release of a sustained, small, undetected leak of a dense toxic gas (chlorine) in an industrial indoor environment. Results from simulations show that the denser chlorine gas spreads like a liquid and flows all along the floor. At the same time, its concentration at a point away from the ground level increases slowly, thus showing that both stratification and dilution effects are present as the dense gas spreads. The implications of this spreading pattern from a risk assessment and risk mitigation point of view are discussed.

  16. An Information Diffusion Technique for Fire Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘静; 黄崇福

    2004-01-01

    There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.

  17. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools—Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Albano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to mitigate the impact of natural hazards on European economies and societies, improved risk assessment, and management needs to be pursued. With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in European flood management policy, flood analysis models have become an important part of flood risk management (FRM. In this context, free and open-source (FOSS geospatial models provide better and more complete information to stakeholders regarding their compliance with the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC for effective and collaborative FRM. A geospatial model is an essential tool to address the European challenge for comprehensive and sustainable FRM because it allows for the use of integrated social and economic quantitative risk outcomes in a spatio-temporal domain. Moreover, a FOSS model can support governance processes using an interactive, transparent and collaborative approach, providing a meaningful experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge through a process of guided discovery regarding flood risk management. This article aims to organize the available knowledge and characteristics of the methods available to give operational recommendations and principles that can support authorities, local entities, and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management in their compliance with the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC.

  18. Hepatitis C virus infection increases risk of developing end-stage renal disease using competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD and hepatitis C virus (HCV infection are closely linked and both increase patient mortality. The association of HCV and risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD has not been analyzed with competing risk model. METHOD: We enrolled a prospective cohort of 4,185 patients (mean age, 62 years; 41% female registered in the CKD integrated care program at two affiliated hospitals of Kaohsiung Medical University in Taiwan between November 11, 2002 and May 31, 2009. With competing risk model, we analyzed the association of HCV infection, defined by seropositive of anti-HCV antibody, and hepatitis B virus (HBV infection, defined by seropositive of HBV surface antigen, with the risk of entering ESRD. RESULTS: The prevalence of HCV infection was 7.6% and it increased with the CKD stages (trend test, P<0.001, while the prevalence of HBV infection was 7.4% and no specific trend among CKD stages (tend test, P = 0.1. During the 9,101 person-year follow-up period, there were 446 death and 1,205 patients entering ESRD. After adjusting death as the competing risk, the estimated 5-year cumulative incidence rate of ESRD among patients with and without HCV infection were 52.6% and 38.4%, respectively (modified log-rank, P<0.001. Multivariable analysis showed that HCV infection, but not HBV infection, had higher risk of developing ESRD compared with cases without infection (HCV, HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.62; HBV, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.89-1.35. Subgroup analyses showed consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: With death-adjusted competing risk analysis, HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of developing ESRD in CKD cohort.

  19. Obesity and risk of thyroid cancer: evidence from a meta-analysis of 21 observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie; Huang, Min; Wang, Li; Ye, Wei; Tong, Yan; Wang, Hanmin

    2015-01-22

    Several studies have evaluated the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. However, the results remain uncertain. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. Published literature from PubMed, EMBASE, Springer Link, Ovid, Chinese Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Chinese Biology Medicine (CBM) were retrieved before 10 August 2014. We included all studies that reported adjusted risk ratios (RRs), hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of thyroid cancer risk. Thirty-two studies (n=12 620 676) were included in this meta-analysis. Obesity was associated with a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer (adjusted RR=1.33; 95% CI, 1.24-1.42; I2=25%). In the subgroup analysis by study type, increased risk of thyroid cancer was found in cohort studies and case-control studies. In subgroup analysis by sex, both obese men and women were at significantly greater risk of thyroid cancer than non-obese subjects. When stratified by ethnicity, significantly elevated risk was observed in Caucasians and in Asians. In the age subgroup analysis, both young and old populations showed increased thyroid cancer risk. Subgroup analysis on smoking status showed that increased thyroid cancer risks were found in smokers and in non-smokers. In the histology subgroup analyses, increased risks of papillary thyroid cancer, follicular thyroid cancer, and anaplastic thyroid cancer were observed. However, obesity was associated with decreased risk of medullary thyroid cancer. Our results indicate that obesity is associated with an increased thyroid cancer risk, except medullary thyroid cancer.

  20. Obesity and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of 21 Observational Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jie; Huang, Min; Wang, Li; Ye, Wei; Tong, Yan; Wang, Hanmin

    2015-01-01

    Background Several studies have evaluated the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. However, the results remain uncertain. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between obesity and thyroid cancer risk. Material/Methods Published literature from PubMed, EMBASE, Springer Link, Ovid, Chinese Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Chinese Biology Medicine (CBM) were retrieved before 10 August 2014. We included all studies that reported adjusted risk ratios (RRs), hazard ratios (HRs) or odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of thyroid cancer risk. Results Thirty-two studies (n=12 620 676) were included in this meta-analysis. Obesity was associated with a significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer (adjusted RR=1.33; 95% CI, 1.24–1.42; I2=25%). In the subgroup analysis by study type, increased risk of thyroid cancer was found in cohort studies and case-control studies. In subgroup analysis by sex, both obese men and women were at significantly greater risk of thyroid cancer than non-obese subjects. When stratified by ethnicity, significantly elevated risk was observed in Caucasians and in Asians. In the age subgroup analysis, both young and old populations showed increased thyroid cancer risk. Subgroup analysis on smoking status showed that increased thyroid cancer risks were found in smokers and in non-smokers. In the histology subgroup analyses, increased risks of papillary thyroid cancer, follicular thyroid cancer, and anaplastic thyroid cancer were observed. However, obesity was associated with decreased risk of medullary thyroid cancer. Conclusions Our results indicate that obesity is associated with an increased thyroid cancer risk, except medullary thyroid cancer. PMID:25612155

  1. Risk of second primary cancer following prostate cancer radiotherapy: DVH analysis using the competitive risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takam, R.; Bezak, E.; Yeoh, E. E.

    2009-02-01

    This study aimed to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC) corresponding to various radiation treatment techniques for prostate cancer. Estimation of SPC was done by analysing differential dose-volume histograms (DDVH) of normal tissues such as rectum, bladder and urethra with the competitive risk model. Differential DVHs were obtained from treatment planning systems for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy techniques. The average risk of developing SPC was no greater than 0.6% for all treatment techniques but was lower with either LDR or HDR brachytherapy alone compared with any EBRT technique. For LDR and HDR brachytherapy alone, the risk of SPC for the rectum was 2.0 × 10-4% and 8.3 × 10-5% respectively compared with 0.2% for EBRT using five-field 3D-CRT to a total dose of 74 Gy. Overall, the risk of developing SPC for urethra following all radiation treatment techniques was very low compared with the rectum and bladder. Treatment plans which deliver equivalent doses of around 3-5 Gy to normal tissues were associated with higher risks of development of SPC.

  2. Risk of second primary cancer following prostate cancer radiotherapy: DVH analysis using the competitive risk model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takam, R; Bezak, E [School of Chemistry and Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide (Australia); Yeoh, E E [School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide (Australia)], E-mail: Rungdham.Takam@health.sa.gov.au

    2009-02-07

    This study aimed to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancer (SPC) corresponding to various radiation treatment techniques for prostate cancer. Estimation of SPC was done by analysing differential dose-volume histograms (DDVH) of normal tissues such as rectum, bladder and urethra with the competitive risk model. Differential DVHs were obtained from treatment planning systems for external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy techniques. The average risk of developing SPC was no greater than 0.6% for all treatment techniques but was lower with either LDR or HDR brachytherapy alone compared with any EBRT technique. For LDR and HDR brachytherapy alone, the risk of SPC for the rectum was 2.0 x 10{sup -4}% and 8.3 x 10{sup -5}% respectively compared with 0.2% for EBRT using five-field 3D-CRT to a total dose of 74 Gy. Overall, the risk of developing SPC for urethra following all radiation treatment techniques was very low compared with the rectum and bladder. Treatment plans which deliver equivalent doses of around 3-5 Gy to normal tissues were associated with higher risks of development of SPC.

  3. Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    García-Juárez, Guillermina; Ramírez-Bribiesca, J Efrén; Hernández-Vázquez, Maricela; Hernández-Calva, Luz Marina; Díaz-Aparicio, Efrén; Orozco-Bolaños, Hermila

    2014-01-01

    To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state...

  4. the mauritius stock exchange: sectoral analysis, risk and return

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cistvr

    Companies listed on the Mauritius Stock Exchange are classified into seven sectors of .... was also opened to foreign investors, following the suspension of the Foreign ...... HARVEY, C. (1995), The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets.

  5. ANALYSIS OF THE INVESTMENT RISK IN CRYPTOCURRENCY BITCOIN

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kinga Kądziołka

    2015-01-01

    .... There was also paid attention to the effect of day of the week on the Bitcoin’s exchanges. The investment in cryptocurrency was characterized by higher risk than investing in “traditional” currencies...

  6. Research on Application of Enhanced Neural Networks in Software Risk Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhenbang Rong; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yong Hu

    2006-01-01

    This paper puts forward a risk analysis model for software projects using enranced neural networks. The data for analysis are acquired through questionnaires from real software projects. To solve the multicollinearity in software risks, the method of principal components analysis is adopted in the model to enhance network stability. To solve uncertainty of the neural networks structure and the uncertainty of the initial weights, genetic algorithms is employed. The experimental result reveals that the precision of software risk analysis can be improved by using the erhanced neural networks model.

  7. A Multivariate Analysis of Risk Factors for Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Shannon

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses multivariate methods on actual data from 267 patients with noninsulin- dependent (Type 2 diabetes mellitus in order to see how the various risk factors can affect the progression of diabetic nephropathy. The approach succeeds in identifying preliminary risk factors such as smoking for males, although the females had higher fasting blood glucose at diagnosis. Not surprisingly, hypertension is common among patients of both sexes and it has an association with proteinuria in female patients in the sample.

  8. Issues in qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for developmental toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, C A; Gaylor, D W

    1988-03-01

    The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

  9. An analysis of occupational risks for brain cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Browson, R.C. (Missouri Department of Health, Columbia, MO (USA)); Reif, J.S.; Chang, J.C.; Davis, J.R.

    1990-02-01

    We evaluated the risks of brain cancer in relation to employment history in a case-control study of 312 cases and 1,248 cancer controls. Subjects were identified through the Missouri Cancer Registry for the period 1984 through 1988. Job classification was based on data routinely abstracted from hospital records. Elevated risks were identified for certain white collar occupations: for men employed in engineering, the odds ratio (OR) = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4, 10.3; for social science professionals, the OR = 6.1; 95% CI = 1.5, 26.1. Among occupations with potential exposure to occupational carcinogens, increased risks were observed for men employed in agricultural crop production (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.0, 2.4) printing and publishing (OR = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.0, 8.3), and brickmasons and tilesetters (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 0.5, 11.5). Most of elevated brain cancer risks were due to astrocytic cancers, but the excess among agricultural workers occurred in other cell types. No increase in risk was noted for current cigarette smokers (OR = 0.9; 95% CI = 0.7, 1.5) or ex-smokers (OR = 1.0; 95% CI = 0.7, 1.5). This exploratory study indicates a need for further studies of occupational risks of brain cancer.

  10. Geospatial Analysis of Urban Land Use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic Fever Risk - a Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izzah, L. N.; Majid, Z.; Ariff, M. A. M.; Fook, C. K.

    2016-09-01

    Human modification of the natural environment continues to create habitats in which vectors of a wide variety of human and animal pathogens (such as Plasmodium, Aedes aegypti, Arenavirus etc.) thrive if unabated with an enormous potential to negatively affect public health. Typical examples of these modifications include impoundments, dams, irrigation systems, landfills and so on that provide enabled environment for the transmission of Hemorrhagic fever such as malaria, dengue, avian flu, Lassa fever etc. Furthermore, contemporary urban dwelling pattern appears to be associated with the prevalence of Hemorrhagic diseases in recent years. These observations are not peculiar to the developing world, as urban expansion also contributes significantly to mosquito and other vectors habitats. This habitats offer breeding ground to some vector virus populations. The key to disease control is developing an understanding of the contribution of human landscape modification to vector-borne pathogen transmission and how a balance may be achieved between human development, public health, and responsible urban land use. A comprehensive review of urban land use Pattern Analysis for Hemorrhagic fever risk has been conducted in this paper. The study found that most of the available literatures dwell more on the impact of urban land use on malaria and dengue fevers; however, studies are yet to be found discussing the implications of urban land use on the risk of Ebola, Lassa and other non-mosquito borne VHFs. A relational model for investigating the influence of urban land use change pattern on the risk of Hemorrhagic fever has been proposed in this study.

  11. The informed society: an analysis of the public's information-seeking behavior regarding coastal flood risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; De Maeyer, Philippe

    2012-08-01

    Recent flood risk management puts an increasing emphasis on the public's risk perception and its preferences. It is now widely recognized that a better knowledge of the public's awareness and concern about risks is of vital importance to outline effective risk communication strategies. Models such as Risk Information Seeking and Processing address this evolution by considering the public's needs and its information-seeking behavior with regard to risk information. This study builds upon earlier information-seeking models and focuses on the empirical relationships between information-seeking behavior and the constructs of risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, response efficacy, and information need in the context of coastal flood risks. Specific focus is given to the mediating role of information need in the model and to the differences in information-seeking behavior between permanent and temporary residents. By means of a structured on-line questionnaire, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in the city of Ostend, one of the most vulnerable places to coastal flooding on the Belgian coast. Three hundred thirteen respondents participated in the survey. Path analysis reveals that information need does not act as a mediator in contrast to risk perception and perceived knowledge. In addition, it is shown that risk perception and perceived hazard knowledge are higher for permanent than temporary residents, leading to increased information-seeking behavior among the former group. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Exploring risk in professional nursing practice: an analysis of work refusal and professional risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beardwood, Barbara A; Kainer, Jan M

    2015-03-01

    This article explores risk in professional nursing practice. Professional risk refers to the threat of professional discipline if it is found that a registered nurse has violated professional nursing practice standards. We argue professional risk is socially constructed and understood differently by nurse regulatory bodies, unions, professional associations and frontline nurses. Regulatory bodies emphasize professional accountability of nurses; professional associations focus on system problems in health-care; unions undertake protecting nurses' right to health and safety; and frontline nurses experience fear and uncertainty in their attempt to interpret practice standards to avoid professional discipline. Perspectives of professional risk are investigated by analyzing three professional nursing bodies' views of professional codes governing the right of nurses to refuse unsafe work assignments. The workplace dynamics surrounding work refusal experienced by frontline nurses are illustrated primarily through the lens of the 2003 SARS influenza outbreak in Ontario, Canada. We conclude that frontline nurses in Ontario are required to manage risk by following professional protocols prioritizing patient care and professional accountability which disregard the systemic, unpredictable and hazardous circumstances in their everyday practice. Moreover, we argue professional protocols cannot anticipate every eventuality in clinical practice creating the fear of professional discipline for nurses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Risk Analysis using Corrosion Rate Parameter on Gas Transmission Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasikirono, B.; Kim, S. J.; Haryadi, G. D.; Huda, A.

    2017-05-01

    In the oil and gas industry, the pipeline is a major component in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas. Oil and gas distribution process sometimes performed past the pipeline across the various types of environmental conditions. Therefore, in the transmission and distribution process of oil and gas, a pipeline should operate safely so that it does not harm the surrounding environment. Corrosion is still a major cause of failure in some components of the equipment in a production facility. In pipeline systems, corrosion can cause failures in the wall and damage to the pipeline. Therefore it takes care and periodic inspections or checks on the pipeline system. Every production facility in an industry has a level of risk for damage which is a result of the opportunities and consequences of damage caused. The purpose of this research is to analyze the level of risk of 20-inch Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline using Risk-based inspection semi-quantitative based on API 581 associated with the likelihood of failure and the consequences of the failure of a component of the equipment. Then the result is used to determine the next inspection plans. Nine pipeline components were observed, such as a straight pipes inlet, connection tee, and straight pipes outlet. The risk assessment level of the nine pipeline’s components is presented in a risk matrix. The risk level of components is examined at medium risk levels. The failure mechanism that is used in this research is the mechanism of thinning. Based on the results of corrosion rate calculation, remaining pipeline components age can be obtained, so the remaining lifetime of pipeline components are known. The calculation of remaining lifetime obtained and the results vary for each component. Next step is planning the inspection of pipeline components by NDT external methods.

  14. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  15. The Measurement and Analysis Risk Factors Dependence Correlation in Software Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjie, Ding; Hong, Hou; Kegang, Hao; Xiaoqun, Guo

    The complexity of software process leads to that there are all kinds of fuzzy correlations among different process management risk factors, such as dependence correlation among software risk factors. It’s difficult to analyze risk data directly by mathematic tools because that risk data is uncertain and rough. Based on the rough set theory and the data in risk management library, the risk factors dependence correlation analysis system(RFDCAS) is established, and the dependence coefficient and its calculate formula on the base of equivalence class is suggested. The RFDCAS unveils the dependence correlation among risk factors contribute to risk management, and can help discover the problems in the software process improvement management.

  16. Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

    2017-03-01

    The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

  17. UML-based Requirements Analysis on Risk Pre-control System in Coal Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Hui

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Combining with the present situation of risk management in domestic coal enterprises,the overall flow of risk pre-control system of coal enterprise is designed on the basis of the ISO/FDIS31000 “Risk management—Principles and guidelines” released by the International Standards Organization and risk precontrol management system of safety in coal mine, UML(unified modeling language is used as a tool to establish the model of system requirements analysis, risk management subsystem is taken as an example to elaborate the modeling process of system analysis, the merit of ensuring the accuracy and consistency of system analysis when using UML as the tool of object-oriented system requirements analysis is verified.  

  18. Risk Analysis of Central Java Gas Transmission Pipeline by Risk-Based Inspection Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mediansyah; Haryadi, G. D.; Ismail, R.; Kim, S. J.

    2017-05-01

    During the operational period of gas transmission pipeline was found a potential hazard that could result in pipeline failure. As a consequence, the problem of the pipeline failure happening more and more. Economic and environmental factors, as well as human life, be considered to involve the current challenges as structural integrity and safety standards. Therefore, the reliability of structural integrity and security of gas pipelines under various conditions, including the existence of defects should be carefully evaluated. The results of this study were the steps for setting a Risk Level on any instrument using the Risk-Based Inspection API 581 standard and the subsequent results are recommended as an effective inspection planning by Risk Level and Remaining Life Time.

  19. Evaluation dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Goodarzi, E.; M. Mirzaei; L. T. Shui; Ziaei, M.

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing tendency to assess the safety levels of existing dams based on risk and uncertainty analysis using mathematical and statistical methods. This research presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses by applying Gumbel logistic distribution for the Doroudzan earth-fill dam in south of Iran. The bivariate frequency analysis resulted in six inflow hydrographs with a joint return period of 1...

  20. Fracture Risk Analysis in Postmenopausal Women with the Current Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salih Gultekin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study was conducted to assess the risk of fracture in postmenopausal women using dual x-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density (DEXA-BMD as a reference method and FRAX as a new clinical risk assessment tool. Material and Method: 168 postmenopausal women (> 50 years evaluating with DEXA-BMD and FRAX methods were included in the study. Femoral BMD (F-BMD, femoral T-score (F-Ts, lumbar spine BMD (L-BMD and lumbar spine T-score (L-Ts values of the patients were calculated. Fracture risk assessments were carried out using T-score values and FRAX 10-year hip fracture (HF and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF risk ratios. Data were analyzed statistically. Results: According to the results of F-Ts and L-Ts, 44/168 (26.2% and 65/168 (38.7% of patients had osteoporosis as compatible with high fracture risk. In osteoporotic patients, mean values for F-Ts L-Ts, F-BMD and L-BMD were -2.8 ± 0.4, -3.2 ± 0.5, 0.530 ± 0.049 and 0.682 ± 0.066, respectively. There were found to be high MOF risk in 16/168 (9.5% and high HF risk in 51/168 (30.4% of patients according to FRAX. Positive correlations were determined between F-Ts and L-Ts (moderate; rho = 0.424, p <0.05 and between HF and MOF (strong; rho = 0.958, p <0001. There were strong negative correlations among HF and MOF with F-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.897 and rho = -0.844, p <0.001 and moderate negative correlations among HF and MOF with L-Ts (respectively, rho = -0.535 and rho = - 0.567, p <0.05. Discussion: In postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, risk assessment by the FRAX besides the DXA-BMD measurements can be useful for not to be missed of patients with high risk of fracture.

  1. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanou, Amy Joy; Svenson, Barbara

    2010-12-20

    This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%-12% reduction in overall cancer risk) although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer.

  2. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Joy Lanou

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Amy Joy Lanou1, Barbara Svenson21Department of Health and Wellness, 2Ramsey Library, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC, USAAbstract: This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%–12% reduction in overall cancer risk although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer.Keywords: diet, vegan, prevention

  3. Reduced cancer risk in vegetarians: an analysis of recent reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanou, Amy Joy; Svenson, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This report reviews current evidence regarding the relationship between vegetarian eating patterns and cancer risk. Although plant-based diets including vegetarian and vegan diets are generally considered to be cancer protective, very few studies have directly addressed this question. Most large prospective observational studies show that vegetarian diets are at least modestly cancer protective (10%–12% reduction in overall cancer risk) although results for specific cancers are less clear. No long-term randomized clinical trials have been conducted to address this relationship. However, a broad body of evidence links specific plant foods such as fruits and vegetables, plant constituents such as fiber, antioxidants and other phytochemicals, and achieving and maintaining a healthy weight to reduced risk of cancer diagnosis and recurrence. Also, research links the consumption of meat, especially red and processed meats, to increased risk of several types of cancer. Vegetarian and vegan diets increase beneficial plant foods and plant constituents, eliminate the intake of red and processed meat, and aid in achieving and maintaining a healthy weight. The direct and indirect evidence taken together suggests that vegetarian diets are a useful strategy for reducing risk of cancer. PMID:21407994

  4. Risk Factors for Childhood Stunting in 137 Developing Countries: A Comparative Risk Assessment Analysis at Global, Regional, and Country Levels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goodarz Danaei

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Stunting affects one-third of children under 5 y old in developing countries, and 14% of childhood deaths are attributable to it. A large number of risk factors for stunting have been identified in epidemiological studies. However, the relative contribution of these risk factors to stunting has not been examined across countries. We estimated the number of stunting cases among children aged 24-35 mo (i.e., at the end of the 1,000 days' period of vulnerability that are attributable to 18 risk factors in 137 developing countries.We classified risk factors into five clusters: maternal nutrition and infection, teenage motherhood and short birth intervals, fetal growth restriction (FGR and preterm birth, child nutrition and infection, and environmental factors. We combined published estimates and individual-level data from population-based surveys to derive risk factor prevalence in each country in 2010 and identified the most recent meta-analysis or conducted de novo reviews to derive effect sizes. We estimated the prevalence of stunting and the number of stunting cases that were attributable to each risk factor and cluster of risk factors by country and region. The leading risk worldwide was FGR, defined as being term and small for gestational age, and 10.8 million cases (95% CI 9.1 million-12.6 million of stunting (out of 44.1 million were attributable to it, followed by unimproved sanitation, with 7.2 million (95% CI 6.3 million-8.2 million, and diarrhea with 5.8 million (95% CI 2.4 million-9.2 million. FGR and preterm birth was the leading risk factor cluster in all regions. Environmental risks had the second largest estimated impact on stunting globally and in the South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and Pacific regions, whereas child nutrition and infection was the second leading cluster of risk factors in other regions. Although extensive, our analysis is limited to risk factors for which effect sizes and country-level exposure data

  5. Supply risk analysis: applying system dynamics to the Colombian healthcare sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pablo Zamora Aguas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses supply risk in the oncological medicine supply chain (SC in Colombia. A system dynamics model was developed for assessing supply risk impact on SC operation and performance. The costs of risk and logis-tics operation were evaluated in current conditions and in a risk mitigation scenario. The model was based on a systematic analysis of supply networks, mainly concerning the reduction of overall SC costs and improving service, quality and opportunity performance index. This article has resulted from research into SC risk management (SCRM carried out by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia’s SEPRO research group.

  6. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  7. Risk analysis of flood control operation mode with forecast information based on a combination of risk sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Risk analysis of reservoir flood control operation mode with forecast information (FCOMFI) is an important basis for the design and implementation of FCOMFI. Most of current researches on this issue are incomplete as they only consider flood forecast errors, but not many other uncertainties in reservoir routing. In order to obtain an integrated risk rate of FCOMFI, this paper analyzes four uncertainties, i.e. hydrological, hydraulic, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty, as well as their probability distributions. On the basis of this analysis, an integrated risk analysis model of FCOMFI for reservoirs and its lower reach is established involving the above-mentioned four uncertainties, and this model is solved by Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. The simulation results, with Baiguishan reservoir as the example, show that the integrated risk rates of FCOMFI are less than those of the flood control operation mode without forecast information. This article presents the highest limited water level that satisfies flood control safety requirements of the lower reach.

  8. Risk analysis. From prospect to exploration portfolio and back

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaufmann, G.M. [Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Improper accounting for covariation of uncertain quantities that characterize prospect, play, basin and corporate exploration portfolio uncertainties can lead to seriously distorted appraisals of exploration and investment risk. The roles played by covariability up the ladder of aggregation from prospect to exploration portfolio are examined. The distinction between systematic risk induced by the dependence of all exploration opportunities on price variation (all boats rising and falling on the tide of prices) and non-systematic or diversifiable risk (geologic and engineering) is highlighted in the context of deciding how to allocate exploration effort among competing exploration opportunities. Valuation of projects that can be flexibly managed over time cannot be correctly valued using probabilistic net present value methods that employ a fixed discount rate. Modern asset value methods derived from the theory of stock options allows correct accounting for flexible timing of exploration and development decisions. An example shows how to employ these methods. 20 refs

  9. Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermina García-Juárez

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. Materials and methods. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. Results. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. Conclusion. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

  10. [Risk analysis of brucelosis in the state of Tlaxcala].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Juárez, Guillermina; Ramírez-Bribiesca, J Efrén; Hernández-Vázquez, Maricela; Hernández-Calva, Luz Marina; Díaz-Aparicio, Efrén; Orozco-Bolaños, Hermila

    2014-01-01

    To identify the risk of brucellosis in the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico. A diagnosis of social type was conducted in the municipalities of Huamantla, Ixtenco and Teacalco, located in the eastern region of the state. The seroprevalence of brucellosis in goats and humans was determined. 46.9% of producers know the programs of vaccination against brucellosis; 19.7% apply the vaccine and 80.3% do not apply the vaccine. Huamantla had the highest seroprevalence of animal brucellosis in 66.8%; San Jose Teacalco distributes unpasteurized cheeses to a distance of 270 km, increasing the risk of infection with brucellosis. Ixtenco recorded the highest prevalence of brucellosis in humans, with 1.51%. The municipalities studied present risks of infection and spread of brucellosis.

  11. A Software Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Belief Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Hu; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yang Yun; Junbiao Tang

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty during the period of software project development often brings huge risks to contractors and clients. Ifwe can find an effective method to predict the cost and quality of software projects based on facts like the project character and two-side cooperating capability at the beginning of the project, we can reduce the risk.Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) is a good tool for analyzing uncertain consequences, but it is difficult to produce precise network structure and conditional probability table. In this paper, we built up network structure by Delphi method for conditional probability table learning, and learn update probability table and nodes' confidence levels continuously according to the application cases, which made the evaluation network have learning abilities, and evaluate the software development risk of organization more accurately. This paper also introduces EM algorithm, which will enhance the ability to produce hidden nodes caused by variant software projects.

  12. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Harlak

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD: Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS: Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001. With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001, body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS: Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible.

  13. Risk Factors for Gambling Problems: An Analysis by Gender.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hing, Nerilee; Russell, Alex; Tolchard, Barry; Nower, Lia

    2016-06-01

    Differences in problem gambling rates between males and females suggest that associated risk factors vary by gender. Previous combined analyses of male and female gambling may have obscured these distinctions. This study aimed to develop separate risk factor models for gambling problems for males and for females, and identify gender-based similarities and differences. It analysed data from the largest prevalence study in Victoria Australia (N = 15,000). Analyses determined factors differentiating non-problem from at-risk gamblers separately for women and men, then compared genders using interaction terms. Separate multivariate analyses determined significant results when controlling for all others. Variables included demographics, gambling behaviour, gambling motivations, money management, and mental and physical health. Significant predictors of at-risk status amongst female gamblers included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on private betting, electronic gaming machines (EGMs), scratch tickets or bingo, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. For males, risk factors included: 18-24 years old, not speaking English at home, low education, living in a group household, unemployed or not in the workforce, gambling on EGMs, table games, races, sports or lotteries, and gambling for reasons other than social reasons, to win money or for general entertainment. High risk groups requiring appropriate interventions comprise young adults, especially males; middle-aged female EGM gamblers; non-English speaking populations; frequent EGM, table games, race and sports gamblers; and gamblers motivated by escape.

  14. Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease: analysis of previously proposed risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlak, Ali; Mentes, Oner; Kilic, Selim; Coskun, Kagan; Duman, Kazim; Yilmaz, Fahri

    2010-01-01

    PURPOSE Sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease is a source of one of the most common surgical problems among young adults. While male gender, obesity, occupations requiring sitting, deep natal clefts, excessive body hair, poor body hygiene and excessive sweating are described as the main risk factors for this disease, most of these need to be verified with a clinical trial. The present study aimed to evaluate the value and effect of these factors on pilonidal disease. METHOD Previously proposed main risk factors were evaluated in a prospective case control study that included 587 patients with pilonidal disease and 2,780 healthy control patients. RESULTS Stiffness of body hair, number of baths and time spent seated per day were the three most predictive risk factors. Adjusted odds ratios were 9.23, 6.33 and 4.03, respectively (p<0.001). With an adjusted odds ratio of 1.3 (p<.001), body mass index was another risk factor. Family history was not statistically different between the groups and there was no specific occupation associated with the disease. CONCLUSIONS Hairy people who sit down for more than six hours a day and those who take a bath two or less times per week are at a 219-fold increased risk for sacrococcygeal pilonidal disease than those without these risk factors. For people with a great deal of hair, there is a greater need for them to clean their intergluteal sulcus. People who engage in work that requires sitting in a seat for long periods of time should choose more comfortable seats and should also try to stand whenever possible. PMID:20186294

  15. Analysis of an Underground Structure Settlement Risk due to Tunneling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Ghodrat, Hadi; Firouzianbandpey, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    The tunnel of the Tabriz urban railway line 2 (TURL2), Iran, will pass through an underground commercial center on its way. Too little distance between the tunnel crown and the underground structure foundation will probably cause collapse or excessive settlement during the tunnel construction based...... of the underground commercial center structure settlement is estimated using both empirical and numerical methods. The settlement risk level of the commercial center structure is determined based on presented definitions about risk classification of various types of structures. Consequently, tunneling processes...

  16. Risk and sustainability analysis of complex hydrogen infrastructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Marangon, A.; Carcassi, M.

    2016-01-01

    -based fuels. Therefore, future hydrogen supply and distribution chains will have to address several objectives. Such a complexity is a challenge for risk assessment and risk management of these chains because of the increasing interactions. Improved methods are needed to assess the supply chain as a whole......Building a network of hydrogen refuelling stations is essential to develop the hydrogen economy within transport. Additional, hydrogen is regarded a likely key component to store and convert back excess electrical power to secure future energy supply and to improve the quality of biomass...

  17. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    . Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing...... and Reference Class Forecasting are implemented. Throughout the entire research from the beginning in 2004 to this day, the modelling framework of CBA-DK has evolved and changed radically. Recently, Palisade Corporation, the developer of @RISK, issued the new version 5.0 allowing for a much greater freedom when...

  18. Applied risk analysis to the future Brazilian electricity generation matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maues, Jair; Fernandez, Eloi; Correa, Antonio

    2010-09-15

    This study compares energy conversion systems for the generation of electrical power, with an emphasis on the Brazilian energy matrix. The financial model applied in this comparison is based on the Portfolio Theory, developed by Harry Markowitz. The risk-return ratio related to the electrical generation mix predicted in the National Energy Plan - 2030, published in 2006 by the Brazilian Energy Research Office, is evaluated. The increase of non-traditional renewable energy in this expected electrical generating mix, specifically, residues of sugar cane plantations and wind energy, reduce not only the risk but also the average cost of the kilowatt-hour generated.

  19. Operational Risk Management; An analysis of FSA Final Notices

    OpenAIRE

    van den Aarssen, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    In the last two decades, financial markets have been highlighted by large-scale financial failures due to incompetence and fraud, such as Barings, Daiwa, Allied Irish Banks, UBS, Société Génerale, and more recently JP Morgan. While previous research has focussed on market and credit risk, and even if the focus was on operational risk it concentrates on the market reaction to operational losses, the current research addresses the root of the problem. The current research explores the final...

  20. Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara; Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio; Perales-Momparler, Sara; Ramón Porta-Sancho, Juan

    2016-07-01

    This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

  1. Small theories and large risks--is risk analysis relevant for epistemology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirković, Milan M

    2012-11-01

    Ought we to take seriously large risks predicted by "exotic" or improbable theories? We routinely assess risks on the basis or either common sense, or some developed theoretical framework based on the best available scientific explanations. Recently, there has been a substantial increase of interest in the low-probability "failure modes" of well-established theories, which can involve global catastrophic risks. However, here I wish to discuss a partially antithetical situation: alternative, low-probability ("small") scientific theories predicting catastrophic outcomes with large probability. I argue that there is an important methodological issue (determining what counts as the best available explanation in cases where the theories involved describe possibilities of extremely destructive global catastrophes), which has been neglected thus far. There is no simple answer to the correct method for dealing with high-probability high-stakes risks following from low-probability theories that still cannot be rejected outright, and much further work is required in this area. I further argue that cases like these are more numerous than usually assumed, for reasons including cognitive biases, sociological issues in science and the media image of science. If that is indeed so, it might lead to a greater weight of these cases in areas such as moral deliberation and policy making.

  2. Consumer perceptions of best practice in food risk communication and management: implications for risk analysis policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cope, S.F.; Frewer, L.J.; Houghton, J.R.; Rowe, G.; Fischer, A.R.H.; Jonge, de J.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of recent food safety incidents, consumer trust in European food safety management has diminished. A risk governance framework that formally institutes stakeholder (including consumer) consultation and dialogue through a transparent and accountable process has been proposed, with du

  3. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  4. Risk factors for cerebrovascular disease mortality among the elderly in Beijing: a competing risk analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Tang

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of combined lifestyle factors and physical conditions with cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD mortality, after accounting for competing risk events, including death from cardiovascular diseases, cancers and other diseases. METHODS: Data on 2010 subjects aged over 55 years were finally analyzed using competing risk models. All the subjects were interviewed by the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA, in China, between 1 January 1992 and 30 August 2009. RESULTS: Elderly females were at a lower risk of death from CBVD than elderly males (HR = 0.639, 95% CI = 0.457-0.895. Increasing age (HR = 1.543, 95% CI = 1.013-2.349, poor self-rated health (HR = 1.652, 95% CI = 1.198-2.277, hypertension (HR = 2.201, 95% CI = 1.524-3.178 and overweight (HR = 1.473, 95% CI = 1.013-2.142 or obesity (HR = 1.711, 95% CI = 1.1754-2.490 was associated with higher CBVD mortality risk. Normal cognition function (HR = 0.650, 95% CI = 0.434-0.973 and living in urban (HR = 0.456, 95% CI = 0.286-0.727 was associated with lower CBVD mortality risk. Gray's test also confirmed the cumulative incidence (CIF of CBVD was lower in the 'married' group than those without spouse, and the mortality was lowest in the 'nutrition sufficient' group among the 'frequent consumption of meat group' and the 'medial type group' (P value<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: CBVD mortality was associated with gender, age, blood pressure, residence, BMI, cognitive function, nutrition and the result of self-rated health assessment in the elderly in Beijing, China.

  5. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

    2012-09-01

    Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  6. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  7. A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Escuder-Bueno

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

  8. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barshi, Immanuel

    2016-01-01

    Speaking up, i.e. expressing ones concerns, is a critical piece of effective communication. Yet, we see many situations in which crew members have concerns and still remain silent. Why would that be the case? And how can we assess the risks of speaking up vs. the risks of keeping silent? And once we do make up our minds to speak up, how should we go about it? Our workshop aims to answer these questions, and to provide us all with practical tools for effective risk assessment and effective speaking-up strategies..

  9. Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

    2012-01-01

    In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

  10. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  11. Enterprise Architecture-Based Risk and Security Modelling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, Henk; Quartel, Dick A.C.; Kordy, Barbara; Ekstedt, Mathias; Seong Kim, Deng

    2016-01-01

    The growing complexity of organizations and the increasing number of sophisticated cyber attacks asks for a systematic and integral approach to Enterprise Risk and Security Management (ERSM). As enterprise architecture offers the necessary integral perspective, including the business and IT aspects

  12. [Analysis of risk factors for bleeding after thyroid surgery].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Xiaoping; Li, Zhengjiang; Liu, Jie; An, Changming; Yin, Yulin; Tang, Pingzhang; Xu, Zhengang

    2016-01-01

    To identify risk factors for bleeding after thyroid surgery, and discuss the potential relevance between the bleeding timing and sources. A total of 2568 cases that underwent thyroid operation from June 2012 to June 2013 were collected and analysed retrospectively the risk factors for postoperative bleeding by Cox and the potential relevance between the bleeding timing and sources. Among 2568 patients, 40 patients occurred postoperative bleeding Indentified risk factors were extent resection (P=0.0435) and surgeon (P=0.0071). Thyroid bed and strap muscles/sternocleidomastoid were the most common sources of bleeding after surgery within 6 hours; while thyroid bed was the most common source of bleeding after surgery between 6 and 8 h; wound errhysis was the most common source during 8-24 h after the operation; thyroid bed and strap muscles/sternocleidomastoid were the most common sources within 24 h after thgroid surgery. Bleeding after thyroid surgery is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication, and the extent of resection and the surgeon are risk factors. Thyroid bed and strap muscles/sternocleidomastoid are the most common sources of bleeding after surgery within 24 hours.

  13. Phantom pain and risk factors : A multivariate analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, PU; Geertzen, JHB; Stewart, R; van der Schans, CP

    2002-01-01

    Phantom pain has been given considerable attention in literature. Phantom Pain reduces quality of life, and patients suffering from phantom pain make heavy use of the medical system. Many risk factors have been identified for phantom Pain in univariate analyses, including phantom sensations, stump P

  14. Responding to consumer needs: Risk-benefit analysis of fortification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, H. van den

    1999-01-01

    In spite of an on average adequate dietary nutrient intake and status in most European countries, for some micronutrients (e.g. folate, vitamin D, B2, B6, B12 (in elderly), iron and iodine) subgroups have been identified which may be at risk and may benefit from a higher intake, especially elderly a

  15. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  16. Barrett's esophagus and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma: A retrospective analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Wei Wang

    2015-12-01

    Conclusion: Our study found that BE-associated EAC mostly occurred in older men. In the group with BE-associated EAC, the majority of patients were discovered due to alarm symptoms, at the same time as esophageal adenocarcinoma had already developed. Further prospective study is needed to stratify the risk of disease progression in BE patients.

  17. Examining Subtypes of Behavioral/Emotional Risk Using Cluster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dever, Bridget V.; Gallagher, Emily K.; Hochbein, Craig D.; Loukas, Austin; Dai, Chenchen

    2017-01-01

    Behavioral and emotional problems among children and adolescents can lead to numerous negative outcomes without intervention. From a prevention standpoint, screening for behavioral and emotional risk is an important step toward identifying such problems before the point of diagnosis or referral. The present study conducted a k-means cluster…

  18. Analysis of genetics and risk factors of Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panpalli Ates, M; Karaman, Y; Guntekin, S; Ergun, M A

    2016-06-14

    Alzheimer's Disease is the leading neurodegenerative cause of dementia. The pathogenesis is not clearly understood yet, is believed to be the complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Consequently vascular risk factors and Apolipoprotein E genotyping are increasingly gaining importance. This study aimed at assessing the relationships between Alzheimer's Disease and Apolipoprotein E phenotype and vascular risk factors. Patients diagnosed with "possible Alzheimer's Disease" in the Gazi University, Department of Neurology, were included in the study and age-matched volunteer patients who attended the polyclinic were included as a control group. In this study, the risk factors including low education level, smoking, hyperlipidemia, higher serum total cholesterol levels, and hyperhomocysteinemia were found to be statistically significantly more common in the Alzheimer's Disease group in comparison to the Control Group, while all Apolipoprotein E ε4/ε4 genotypes were found in the Alzheimer's Disease group. The presence of the Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele is believed to increase vascular risk factors as well as to affect Alzheimer's Disease directly. The biological indicators which are used in identifying the patients' genes will be probably used in the treatment plan of the patients in the future.

  19. Risk Analysis of the Bond Portfolio Price Sensitivity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiZhou; JinlinLi

    2004-01-01

    The paper described three methods of scaling the bond portfolio price. They were duration, convexity and time value. From the principle of No-arbitrage, there was one and only one relationship of duration, convexity and time value. It chose three corporation bonds of China and analyzed the risk of two investment strategies.

  20. Phantom pain and risk factors : A multivariate analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, PU; Geertzen, JHB; Stewart, R; van der Schans, CP

    2002-01-01

    Phantom pain has been given considerable attention in literature. Phantom Pain reduces quality of life, and patients suffering from phantom pain make heavy use of the medical system. Many risk factors have been identified for phantom Pain in univariate analyses, including phantom sensations, stump P