Irradiation from a phytosanitary treatment perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zulkifli Kamaruzzaman; Asna Booty Othman; Chan Ah Kiow

2002-01-01

Recognizing that with the advent of globalisation and initiatives towards liberalization of trade through the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the challenge towards gaining international market access will hinge primarily on quality of agricultural commodities. Besides aiming for efficiency in production it is crucial to emphasise on quality so that it not only provide a competitive edge but also enables them to penetrate markets that have stringent phytosanitary requirements. The need for an alternative quarantine treatment against agricultural pests has been pressing as according to the Montreal Protocol, fumigation with methyl bromide, the most widely used fumigant, will be globally phased out due to environment reasons. Irradiation is a relatively new technology and lately it has been accepted as one of the phytosanitary measures by the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC). It provides one of the alternative technologies available to the food industries to control organisms that cause food borne diseases, to reduce food losses due to spoilage and deterioration, and to overcome barriers in food trade. Taking cognizance that irradiation has potential as a treatment technology for the disinfestation of pests of agricultural commodities, efforts have been stepped up to ensure the pre-requisites are in place for its implementation. (Author)

Combination irradiation treatments for food safety and phytosanitary uses

Science.gov (United States)

Combination of irradiation treatment with other preservation techniques is of potential importance in enhancing the effectiveness and reducing the energy or dose requirement for destroying food borne illness and spoilage organisms while retaining or improving product quality. Phytosanitary irradiati...

Preliminary study of e-beam processing as a phytosanitary treatment against Guignardia citricarpa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Araujo, Michel M.; Fanaro, Gustavo B.; Silveira, Ana P.M.; Rogovschi, Vladimir D.; Villavicencio, Anna L.C.H.; Correa, Benedito

2009-01-01

Citrus black spot (CBS) is a fungal disease, caused by Guignardia citricarpa and affects practically all citrus species of economic importance, especially sweet oranges. It has become a serious, widespread problem for citrus production in South America. It causes lesions on citrus fruit peel and leaves and can induce fruit drop before maturity. Fruits from citrus areas affected by CBS represent a risk for introduction of this pathogen into new areas. European Community and United States severely limit importation of fresh citrus fruit from those countries were the disease is present. Various treatments have been explored to reduce the risk of introduction of CBS into countries that are currently free of this disease. E-beam processing has been successfully used to inactivate food spoilage microorganisms, including bacteria, yeasts and moulds. Ionizing radiation treatment has been known to extend the postharvest life of many tropical and subtropical fruits. Irradiation is the most recent commercial phytosanitary treatment for fresh commodities. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of electron beam processing on the viability of G. citricarpa. Isolated fungi from naturally infected oranges were irradiated with 2.5, 5.0, 7.5, 10.0 and 12.5 kGy using an electron beam irradiator (Radiation Dynamics Co., model JOB-188, New York, USA). Irradiation appeared to be a useful alternative as a phytosanitary treatment to control citrus black spot dissemination. (author)

Generic Pest Risk Analysis for Potato in Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baidya Nath Mahto

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Pest Risk Analysis (PRA is the process of evaluation for biological and economic evidences in order to determine whether a pest should be regulated under phyto-sanitary measures. The present mini review highlights the potential potato pathogen list recorded in Nepal harmful for potato production and productivity. At global scale altogether 135 potential quarantine pests (PQP for potato has been recorded, while in Nepal only 92 PQP were recorded. Out of those 52, 13 and 27 were fungi, bacteria and viruses respectively. Among the 92 PQP, 34, 30 and 13 were considered at high, medium and lower risk type pathogens for potato. There was no information available on other 15 PQP.

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Soliman, T; MacLeod, A; Mumford, J D; Nghiem, T P L; Tan, H T W; Papworth, S K; Corlett, R T; Carrasco, L R

2016-05-01

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture-dependent economies, high rates of land-use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low- and middle-income tropical countries. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Epidemic classification of phytosanitary situations on cereal crops using mathematical modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Most plant protection researchers and experts divide emerging phytosanitary situations into three classes: epidemic, moderate development of disease, and yield depression. The known principles and methods for estimating these situations (Van der Plank J.E., Kranz J. et al.) do not fully describe th...

YIELD AND QUALITY OF YELLOW PASSION FRUITS ACCORDING TO ORGANIC FERTILIZATION AND ALTERNATIVE PHYTOSANITARY MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anália Lúcia Vieira Pacheco

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Growing yellow passion fruit is a profitable activity, with a high demand for labor, and it is practiced especially by family-based farmers. However, the production cost is rather high and a significant part of this cost is associated with the expenses related to fertilization and phytosanitary treatments necessary for obtaining satisfactory yields and high commercial quality fruit. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of using organic compound in fertilization of plants and alternative products in phytosanitary treatments on the yield and quality of fruits. Yellow passion fruits were submitted to three types of fertilization (mineral, organic and organic-mineral and two types of phytosanitary treatment (‘conventional’ and ‘alternative’. This experiment evaluated fruit yield (kg/plant and fruit quality by using the following evaluations: seedless pulp yield, soluble solids content (SS, titratable acidity (TA, SS/TA ratio and vitamin C content. The different types of fertilization did not interfere in fruit yield, however, plants under conventional phytosanitary treatment displayed higher yields. The SS content and TA of the fruits were influenced only by fertilization, where plants that received mineral and organic-mineral fertilization produced fruit with higher contents of SS and TA. Pulp yield, SS/TA ratio and vitamin C content were not influenced by any of the evaluated factors. Regarding cultivation of passion fruit, it is possible to substitute some mineral fertilizers for organic fertilizers with no negative effects on the fruit yield or quality. However, the substitution of pesticides for alternative products compromises fruit yield.

Fundamental economic irreversibilities influence policies for enhancing international forest phytosanitary security

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Will Allen; Robert G. Haight; E. Carina H. Keskitalo; Mariella Marzano; Maria Pettersson; Christopher P. Quine; E. R. Langer

2017-01-01

National and international efforts to manage forest biosecurity create tension between opposing sources of ecological and economic irreversibility. Phytosanitary policies designed to protect national borders from biological invasions incur sunk costs deriving from economic and political irreversibilities that incentivizes wait-and-see decision-making. However, the...

Irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment of food and agricultural commodities. Proceedings of a final research coordination meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-11-01

World trade in fresh horticultural produce, durables and ornamentals continues to grow. Accompanying increased trade in agricultural products is the increased risk for inadvertently transporting quarantine pests to countries or regions where they do not occur. Quarantined pests, including insects such as fruit flies, beetles, moths, scales, mealybugs, thrips, and mites, can seriously disrupt marketing of fresh agricultural products not only between countries, but also between geographical areas within countries (e.g. Florida to California; Hawaii to mainland USA; Queensland to Victoria, Australia; Okinawa to Japan) unless accepted postharvest quarantine treatments are available. Quarantine or phytosanitary treatments (such as fumigation, heat, cold or irradiation) disinfest host commodities of insect pests before they are moved through market channels to areas where the pests do not occur. Among the phytosanitary treatments, irradiation is recognized as a versatile treatment with broadspectrum activity against arthropod pests at dose levels that have minimal adverse effects on the quality of most commodities. The Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, initiated in 1998 a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Irradiation as a Phytosanitary Treatment of Food and Agricultural Commodities. This CRP included 16 participants from Australia, Brazil, Chile, China (2), India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Syrian Arab Republic, Thailand, Turkey and the USA (2). Research coordination meetings were held in Bangkok, Thailand, 29 March - 2 April 1999; Fresno, California, 13-16 November 2001; and Vienna, 2-4 November 2002. This CRP built on the achievements of two previous CRPs on Irradiation as a Quarantine Treatment of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables, (1986-1990), and Irradiation as a Quarantine Treatment of Mites, Nematodes and Insects other than Fruit Flies(1992-1997). This publication presents the research results

Electron beam irradiation: novel technology for phytosanitary purposes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhalla, Shashi; Srinivasan, K.; Dwivedi, J.; Gautam, S.; Sharma, Arun

2015-01-01

In the WTO regime, flow of agricultural commodities has increased, posing risk of inadvertent introduction of exotic pests. This can be minimized by undertaking quarantine measures. Quarantine/phytosanitary disinfestation treatments demand a very high level of security as the pest tolerance in quarantine is zero. Methyl bromide, a potent fumigant has been restricted in its use due to ozone depleting effect. Also, the conventional chemicals/fumigants being used world over are being restricted globally because of the various associated problems. Therefore, there is a need for an alternative ecofriendly strategy for controlling the pests. Irradiation, an approved technology by International Plant Protection Convention, appears to be a viable, nonchemical, residue-free strategy. Disinfestation of pulses with low energy electron irradiation potentially will have less deleterious effects on commodity quality than irradiation with other sources. Internationally, new radiation generating sources as Electron beam (EB) are being explored to meet import standards of quality and quarantine. The EB has a machine source and can be simply switched on or off. Irradiation of legume seeds viz., blackgram, greengram and soybean infested with pulse beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and C. chinensis) at different doses at an energy level of 500 keV using the Accelerator facility at Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore revealed the dose-dependent effects on the insect growth parameters. Adult emergence from seeds infested with different stages was negligible and eggs laid by beetles that survived treatment did not develop into adults at higher doses. The lower doses viz., 170, 340 and 510 Gy on the other hand caused sterility effect on the insect but showed stimulatory effect on the physiological seed parameters . viz., seedling vigour and vigour index. Electron beam irradiation has a great potential for use in the disinfestation for phytosanitary purposes. Nevertheless

Phytosanitary irradiation of Diatraea saccharalis, D. grandiosella, and Eoreuma loftini (Lepidoptera: Crambinae)

Science.gov (United States)

Phytosanitary irradiation (PI) is increasingly being used to disinfest horticultural commodities of invasive quarantine pests. Most disinfestation is done with generic treatments, where one dose is scheduled for a group of pests and/or commodities. The current generic treatment that USDA-APHIS uses...

Factors affecting ionizing radiation phytosanitary treatments, and implications for research and generic treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Phytosanitary irradiation (PI) treatments are promising measures to overcome quarantine barriers to trade and are currently used in several countries. Although PI has advantages compared with other treatments, one disadvantage bedevils research approval/application: organisms may remain alive afte...

Generic phytosanitary irradiation treatments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hallman, Guy J [United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Weslaco, TX (United States)

2013-01-15

The history of the development of generic phytosanitary irradiation (PI) treatments is discussed beginning with its initial proposal in 1986. Generic PI treatments in use today are 150 Gy for all hosts of Tephritidae, 250 Gy for all arthropods on mango and papaya shipped from Australia to New Zealand, 300 Gy for all arthropods on mango shipped from Australia to Malaysia, 350 Gy for all arthropods on lychee shipped from Australia to New Zealand and 400 Gy for all hosts of insects other than pupae and adult Lepidoptera shipped to the United States. Efforts to develop additional generic PI treatments and reduce the dose for the 400 Gy treatment are ongoing with a broad based 5-year, 12-nation cooperative research project coordinated by the joint Food and Agricultural Organization/International Atomic Energy Agency Program on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Key groups identified for further development of generic PI treatments are Lepidoptera (eggs and larvae), mealybugs and scale insects. A dose of 250 Gy may suffice for these three groups plus others, such as thrips, weevils and whiteflies. (author)

Generic phytosanitary irradiation treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Hallman, Guy J.

2012-07-01

The history of the development of generic phytosanitary irradiation (PI) treatments is discussed beginning with its initial proposal in 1986. Generic PI treatments in use today are 150 Gy for all hosts of Tephritidae, 250 Gy for all arthropods on mango and papaya shipped from Australia to New Zealand, 300 Gy for all arthropods on mango shipped from Australia to Malaysia, 350 Gy for all arthropods on lychee shipped from Australia to New Zealand and 400 Gy for all hosts of insects other than pupae and adult Lepidoptera shipped to the United States. Efforts to develop additional generic PI treatments and reduce the dose for the 400 Gy treatment are ongoing with a broad based 5-year, 12-nation cooperative research project coordinated by the joint Food and Agricultural Organization/International Atomic Energy Agency Program on Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture. Key groups identified for further development of generic PI treatments are Lepidoptera (eggs and larvae), mealybugs and scale insects. A dose of 250 Gy may suffice for these three groups plus others, such as thrips, weevils and whiteflies.

Hawaii success story in phytosanitary irradiation due to researcher-industry-regulator partnership

Science.gov (United States)

Hawaii is a pioneer in the use of phytosanitary irradiation. Irradiation is an approved treatment to control quarantine insect pests in 17 fruits and 7 vegetables for export from Hawaii to the U.S. mainland. Since 2000, the commercial x-ray irradiation facility, Hawaii Pride LLC, on the Big Island h...

Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures: The Case of Mexican Avocados

OpenAIRE

Bakshi, Nishita

2003-01-01

This thesis examines the effects on demand, supply, imports, and prices of partial easing of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers to trade in the U.S. market in the case of Mexican avocados. The SPS Agreement plays a role in the avocado market studied here through its implications for negotiations between countries that have not utilized the formal channels of the WTO for resolving disputes. A quarantine in place from 1914 until very recently banned entry of Mexican avocados into the...

78 FR 54445 - Privacy Act Systems of Records; Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance and Tracking System

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-04

... INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Christian B. Dellis, Export Services, Plant Health Programs, Plant Protection and... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Office of the Secretary [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0104] Privacy Act Systems of Records; Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance and Tracking System AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health...

78 FR 37775 - Privacy Act Systems of Records; Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance and Tracking System

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-24

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Office of the Secretary [Docket No. APHIS-2012-0104] Privacy Act Systems of Records; Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance and Tracking System AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health... Health Inspection Service proposes to add a system of records to its inventory of records systems subject...

78 FR 48642 - Privacy Act Systems of Records; Phytosanitary Certificate Issuance and Tracking System

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-09

..., view user fees accrued and paid, and track the status of phytosanitary certification. Foreign... pursuant thereto; (5) To the Department of Justice when: (a) The agency, or any component thereof; or (b... or her individual capacity where the Department of Justice has agreed to represent the employee; or...

Repercussion of the phytosanitary treatments on various models of foliage management in a Cabernet Sauvignon Vineyard (I note).

Science.gov (United States)

Spera, G; Moretti, S; Casadei, G

2004-01-01

This study is the first communication about the repercussion of several phytosanitary treatments in three different training systems, differently managed in foilage, in relation to the usual phytopatologies: botrytis, acid rot, grape mildew and oldium. Particular attention to residuals of the products supplied on the foilage and present in ground and wine is paid. The considered foilage management systems are among those more spread and effective ones for a good quality wine production for Cabernet Sauvignon variety (clone R5). 11. Cordon Spur of Conegliano (C.S.C); 12. Simple Free Espalier Curtain (S.C.S.L); 13. Lyra (Lyra). The phytosanitary interventions for the foilage management systems have been compared between the company's ordinary plan and one with various and numerous active principles. The CG-ECD with Multiresidual analysis has determined the active principles residuals in the ground and in the wines. The characteristics of the wines have been determined by physical- chemical analysis; their organoleptic quality has been valued by panels of producers, oenologists, consumers and restaurant staff. The results point out a difference among the trials for the different presence of residuals. The foilage management justifies the diversity of the analytical composition of the wines. There is a substantial uniformity of judgements for the organoleptic quality. In conclusion, in this prove the judgement on the economic quality highlights the uselessness of the use of more incisive and radical active principles.

Large-scale confirmatory tests of a phytosanitary irradiation treatment against Sternochetus frigidus (F.) in Philippine mango

Science.gov (United States)

The mango pulp weevil, Sternochetus frigidus (F.) is an important quarantine pest preventing the export of mangoes from the Philippines to the United States and other countries. Previously, a radiation dose of 100 Gy was proposed for phytosanitary treatment of S. frigidus based on dose-response stud...

Ionizing radiation as a phytosanitary treatment against fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae): Efficacy in naturally versus artificially infested fruit

Science.gov (United States)

Some phytosanitary irradiation treatments against tephritid fruit flies have been developed using artificial infestation of fruit without first comparing its effect on efficacy. In this study, efficacy was compared using infestation of grapefruit with Mexican fruit fly, Anastrepha ludens (Loew), vi...

Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Haack, Robert A; Britton, Kerry O; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Cavey, Joseph F; Garrett, Lynn J; Kimberley, Mark; Lowenstein, Frank; Nuding, Amelia; Olson, Lars J; Turner, James; Vasilaky, Kathryn N

2014-01-01

Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM), such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM15) in 2002, which provides treatment standards for WPM used in international trade. ISPM15 was originally developed by members of the International Plant Protection Convention to "practically eliminate" the risk of international transport of most bark and wood pests via WPM. The United States (US) implemented ISPM15 in three phases during 2005-2006. We compared pest interception rates of WPM inspected at US ports before and after US implementation of ISPM15 using the US Department of Agriculture AQIM (Agriculture Quarantine Inspection Monitoring) database. Analyses of records from 2003-2009 indicated that WPM infestation rates declined 36-52% following ISPM15 implementation, with results varying in statistical significance depending on the selected starting parameters. Power analyses of the AQIM data indicated there was at least a 95% chance of detecting a statistically significant reduction in infestation rates if they dropped by 90% post-ISPM15, but the probability fell as the impact of ISPM15 lessened. We discuss several factors that could have reduced the apparent impact of ISPM15 on lowering WPM infestation levels, and suggest ways that ISPM15 could be improved. The paucity of international interception data impeded our ability to conduct more thorough analyses of the impact of ISPM15, and demonstrates the need for well-planned sampling programs before and after implementation of major phytosanitary policies so that their effectiveness can be assessed. We also present summary data for bark- and wood-boring insects intercepted on WPM at US ports during 1984-2008.

77 FR 65760 - Request for Public Comments To Compile the Reports on Sanitary and Phytosanitary and Technical...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-30

... Technical Barriers to Trade (2012 TBT Report) respectively. The TPSC invites written comments from the public on issues that USTR should examine in preparing the SPS and TBT Reports. DATES: Public comments..., Director of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Affairs, USTR (202-395-6127). Questions regarding the TBT Report or...

Effect of phytosanitary irradiation and methyl bromide fumigation on the physical, sensory, and microbiological quality of blueberries and sweet cherries.

Science.gov (United States)

Thang, Karen; Au, Kimberlee; Rakovski, Cyril; Prakash, Anuradha

2016-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine whether irradiation could serve as a suitable phytosanitary treatment alternative to methyl bromide (MB) fumigation for blueberries and sweet cherry and also to determine the effect of phytosanitary irradiation treatment on survival of Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes on these fruit. 'Bluecrop' blueberries (Vaccinium corymbosum) and 'Sweetheart' cherries (Prunus avium) were irradiated at 0.4 kGy or fumigated with methyl bromide and evaluated for quality attributes during storage. Irradiation caused an immediate decrease in firmness of both fruit without further significant change during storage. Fumigated fruit, in contrast, softened by 11-14% during storage. Irradiation did not adversely affect blueberry and cherry shelf-life. MB fumigation did not impact blueberry and cherry quality attributes initially; however, fumigated fruit exhibited greater damage and mold growth than the control and irradiated samples during storage. Irradiation at 400 Gy resulted in a ∼1 log CFU g(-1) reduction in Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes counts, indicating that this treatment cannot significantly enhance safety. This study indicates that irradiation at a target dose of 0.4 kGy for phytosanitary treatment does not negatively impact blueberry and cherry quality and can serve as an alternative to methyl bromide fumigation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Phytosanitary irradiation for export of fresh produce. Commercial adoption in Hawaii and current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Follett, P.A.; Wall, M.M.

2013-01-01

Hawaii is a pioneer in the use of phytosanitary irradiation. Irradiation is an approved treatment to control quarantine insect pests in 17 fruits and 7 vegetables for export from Hawaii to the US mainland. The commercial X-ray irradiation facility, Hawaii Pride LLC, has been shipping tropical fruits and vegetables to the US mainland using irradiation since 2000. Hawaiian purple sweet potato is the highest volume product with annual exports of more than 12 million lbs (5,500 tonnes). The advent of generic radiation treatments for tephritid fruit flies (150 Gy) and other insects (400 Gy) has accelerated commodity export approvals and facilitated adoption by foreign trading partners. Current impediments to wider adoption include the labeling requirement, the 1 kGy limit for fresh horticultural products, and non-acceptance of phytosanitary irradiation in Japan and the European Union. USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has restricted the use of modified atmosphere packaging (MAP) for irradiated fresh fruits exported to the US due to possible increased radio-tolerance in the target insects. Data are presented for response of melon fly in papaya to several types of MAP with radiation treatment at 45-65 Gy. Low oxygen atmospheres can increase insect radio-tolerance, but the effect is dependent on oxygen concentration and radiation dose. (author)

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

Science.gov (United States)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

Effect of gamma irradiation treatment at phytosanitary dose levels on the quality of ‘Lane Late’ navel oranges

Science.gov (United States)

The objectives of this study were to determine the dose tolerance of ‘Lane Late’ navel oranges (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) to irradiation for phytosanitary purposes, identify the sensory attributes that may be affected by the treatment, and determine which changes, if any, influence consumer liking....

Phytosanitary evaluation of olive germplasm in Albania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Luigi

2009-09-01

Full Text Available A survey on viruses was carried out in 2008 in the main olive-growing areas of Albania (Kruja, Sauk and Vlora. Fifty samples from 14 local and 2 exotic olive cultivars were collected from 10 commercial orchards and one collection field and inspected for Arabis mosaic virus (ArMV, Cherry leaf roll virus (CLRV, Strawberry latent ringspot virus (SLRV, Olive latent virus 1 (OLV-1, Olive leaf yellowing-associated virus (OLYaV, Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV, Olive latent virus-2 (OLV-2 and Tobacco necrosis virus strain D (TNV-D by a one-step RT-PCR assay using virus-specifi c primers. None of these viruses were found in the source plants except SLRSV and OLYaV, which were detected in a ‘K. M. Berat’ olive tree grown in the collection field. These findings are important because the incidence of olive virus diseases is low in Albania but high in other Mediterranean countries. Thus, all efforts should be to directed to maintaining the Albanian olive germplasm pathogen-free and in the best agronomical and phytosanitary condition possible.

Ionizing radiation as a phytosanitary treatment against European corn borer (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in ambient, low oxygen, and cold conditions

Science.gov (United States)

The European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hubner), (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), is a quarantine pest for several fresh commodities, including corn-on-the-cob, bell peppers, and green beans. Methyl bromide fumigation is the usual phytosanitary treatment, but the chemical is under increasing regulat...

Relationship Between Mycorrhizal Associations and Tree Phyto-Sanitary Conditions of Urban Woodlands of Bogota D.C., Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramos Montano, Carolina; Posada Almanza, Raul H; Ronderos Figueroa, Miguel A; Penagos Canon, Gustavo A

2010-01-01

Spore number and root infection by Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi were evaluated in Eugenia myrtifolia, Ficus soatensis and Croton bogotensis, in parks and green zones of urban woodlands of Bogota D.C, Colombia. The aim was to investigate relations between mycorrhizal associations and tree phyto-sanitary conditions, and effects of two distinct climatic zones. It was demonstrated that plant species and climate are significant sources of variations in the general mycorrhizal state. Eugenia myrtifolia showed the highest degree of root colonization but the lowest number of spores, while C. bogotensis had the opposite response. In general, dry environments favored the mycorrhizal infection levels. By considering overall data, there was a positive relation between the general phytosanitary status of the urban trees and the mycorrhizal colonization. The evaluation of the relationship with the incidence of specific foliar symptoms showed that chlorosis, bight and herbivory maintained a negative relation with the mycorrhization in E. myrtifolia and C. bogotensis. Results suggest that association with AM fungi helps in any way for reducing

Phytosanitary irradiation of peach fruit moth (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) in apple fruits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhan, Guoping; Li, Baishu; Gao, Meixu; Liu, Bo; Wang, Yuejin; Liu, Tao; Ren, Lili

2014-01-01

Peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii Matsumura, is a serious pest of many pome and stone fruits and presents a quarantine problem in some export markets. It is widely distributed in pome fruit production areas in China, Japan, Korea, North Korea and the Far Eastern Federal District of Russia. In this investigation, gamma radiation dose–response tests were conducted with late eggs (5-d-old) and various larval stages, followed by large-scale confirmatory tests on the most tolerant stage in fruit, the fifth instar. The dose-response tests, with the target radiation dose of 20 (late eggs), 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, and 160 Gy (late fifth instars in vitro) respectively applied to all stages, showed that the tolerance to radiation increased with increasing age and developmental stage. The fifth instar (most advanced instar in fruits) was determined to be the most tolerant stage requiring an estimated minimum absorbed dose of 208.6 Gy (95% CI: 195.0, 226.5 Gy) to prevent adult emergence at 99.9968% efficacy (95% confidence level). In the confirmatory tests, irradiation was applied to 30,850 late fifth instars in apple fruits with a target dose of 200 Gy (171.6–227.8 Gy measured), but only 4 deformed adults emerged that died 2 d afterwards without laying eggs. A dose of 228 Gy may be recommended as a phytosanitary irradiation treatment under ambient atmosphere for the control of peach fruit moth on all commodities with an efficacy of 99.9902% at 95% confidence level. - Highlights: • Dose–response tests were conducted on eggs and all larval stages. • Fifth instar is the most tolerant stage that could be shipped in fruits. • None normal-looking adult emerged from 30,850 fifth instars in confirmatory tests. • A minimum of 228 Gy is suggested for phytosanitary irradiation of peach fruit moth

Effectiveness of the International Phytosanitary Standard ISPM No. 15 on reducing wood borer infestation rates in wood packaging material entering the United States.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert A Haack

Full Text Available Numerous bark- and wood-infesting insects have been introduced to new countries by international trade where some have caused severe environmental and economic damage. Wood packaging material (WPM, such as pallets, is one of the high risk pathways for the introduction of wood pests. International recognition of this risk resulted in adoption of International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM15 in 2002, which provides treatment standards for WPM used in international trade. ISPM15 was originally developed by members of the International Plant Protection Convention to "practically eliminate" the risk of international transport of most bark and wood pests via WPM. The United States (US implemented ISPM15 in three phases during 2005-2006. We compared pest interception rates of WPM inspected at US ports before and after US implementation of ISPM15 using the US Department of Agriculture AQIM (Agriculture Quarantine Inspection Monitoring database. Analyses of records from 2003-2009 indicated that WPM infestation rates declined 36-52% following ISPM15 implementation, with results varying in statistical significance depending on the selected starting parameters. Power analyses of the AQIM data indicated there was at least a 95% chance of detecting a statistically significant reduction in infestation rates if they dropped by 90% post-ISPM15, but the probability fell as the impact of ISPM15 lessened. We discuss several factors that could have reduced the apparent impact of ISPM15 on lowering WPM infestation levels, and suggest ways that ISPM15 could be improved. The paucity of international interception data impeded our ability to conduct more thorough analyses of the impact of ISPM15, and demonstrates the need for well-planned sampling programs before and after implementation of major phytosanitary policies so that their effectiveness can be assessed. We also present summary data for bark- and wood-boring insects intercepted on WPM at US

Phytosanitary inspection of woody plants for planting at european union entry points: A practical enquiry

OpenAIRE

Eschen, René; Rigaux, Ludovic; Sukovata, Lidia; Vettraino, Anna Maria; Marzano, Mariella; Grégoire, Jean-Claude

2015-01-01

Phytosanitary import inspections are important to avoid entry of harmful pests on live plants. In the European Union (EU), all consignments of live plants must be inspected at the first point of entry, and plants allowed entry can be moved without further inspection among the 28 Member States and Switzerland. It is important that inspections in EU countries adhere to the same standard to avoid introduction of harmful organisms through countries with weaker methods. We tested whether sampling ...

Use of biology agents for the control phytosanitary in the minitubers production of potato in the acclimatization conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Alberto Jimenez-Terry

2002-10-01

Full Text Available The employment of biological controls of pests and diseases is a technology with trends to increase at present for being economic, lasting and of beneficial results, related to the stability that they offer the ecosystem; avoiding the pollution of the environment produced by the application of pesticides. The present work was realized to evaluate the phytosanitary control on pests and diseases in the production of potato minitubers in acclimatization conditions. Combinations of agents Beauveria bassiana, Bacillus turhingiensis, Verticillum lecanii, Thrichoderma harzianum and Gliocladium viridens, were applied comparatively with the utilization of chemical products and a control without application. The results gave an efficient control of the chemical products and on the other hand, the biocontrol agents also exercised their role with valuable performance for the combinations of Trichoderma harzianum + Bacillus thuringiensis + Beauveria bassiana and Trichoderma harzianum + Bacillus thuringiensis + Verticillum lecanii, in which the yields of minitubers per plant were superior with significant differences to the control. Evidently these results allowed the proposal of using these biocontrol agents for the acclimatization of potato vitroplants. Key words: Beauveria, control phytosanitary, in vitro plants, Ttrichoderma, Verticillum

Phytosanitary irradiation of fresh tropical commodities in Hawaii: Generic treatments, commercial adoption, and current issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Follett, Peter A.; Weinert, Eric D.

2012-01-01

Hawaii is a pioneer in the use of phytosanitary irradiation. The commercial X-ray irradiation facility, Hawaii Pride LLC, has been shipping papaya and other tropical fruits and vegetables to the United States mainland using irradiation for 11 years. Irradiation is an approved treatment to control quarantine pests in 17 fruits and 7 vegetables for export from Hawaii to the US mainland. Hawaiian purple sweet potato is the highest volume product with annual exports of more than 12 million lbs (5500 t). The advent of generic radiation treatments for tephritid fruit flies (150 Gy) and other insects (400 Gy) will accelerate commodity export approvals and facilitate worldwide adoption. Lowering doses for specific pests and commodities can lower treatment costs and increase capacity owing to shorter treatment times, and will minimize any quality problems. Current impediments to wider adoption include the 1 kGy limit for fresh horticultural products, the labeling requirement, and non-acceptance of phytosanitary irradiation in Japan, the European Union, and elsewhere. Irradiation has potential as a treatment for unregulated imports to prevent new pest incursions. - Highlights: ► Irradiation is used to control quarantine insects in exported fresh commodities. ► Hawaii exported 5.7 t of tropical produce using irradiation in 2010. ► Generic radiation treatments will accelerate commodity export approvals. ► Lowering the dose for specific commodities will reduce costs/maintain quality. ► Current issues include the 1 kGy dose limit and labeling requirements.

A new approach in the monitoring of the phytosanitary conditions of forests: the case of oak and beech stands in the Sicilian Regional Parks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cinzia Rizza

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to investigate the health conditions of oak and beech stands in the three Regional Parks of Sicily (Etna, Madonie and Nebrodi. A total of 81 sampling areas were investigated, 54 in oak stands and 27 in beech stands. The phytosanitary conditions of each tree within the respective sampling area was expressed with a synthetic index namely phytosanitary class (PC. Oak stands showed severe symptoms of decline, with 85% of the sampling areas including symptomatic trees. In general, beech stands were in better condition, with the exception of Nebrodi Park, where trees showed severe symptoms of decline. On oak trees, infections of fungal pathogens were also observed, including Biscogniauxia mediterranea, Polyporus sp., Fistulina hepatica, Mycrosphaera alphitoides and Armillaria sp. By contrast, on beech trees Biscogniauxia nummularia, Fomes fomentarius and Neonectria radicicola were recognized. Furthermore, twenty-two permanent sampling areas were delimited with the aim of monitoring regularly the health conditions of forests in these three parks.

Sanitary and phytosanitary measures and food safety: challenges and opportunities for developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Siméon, M

2006-08-01

Because of fast-growing demand, export markets can absorb high value added products and offer high returns; for many developing countries export market development is thus a key requirement for rural income generation and rural growth. Although developing countries face increasingly strict sanitary and phytosanitary standards in their export markets, they can maintain and improve market access--and improve domestic food safety and agricultural productivity--by adopting a strategic approach to food safety, agricultural health and trade. High-income countries should increase development flows to help developing countries build the capacity to plan and execute the necessary strategies. The first proposal in this paper is to make two existing sets of guidelines widely available to interested parties, in particular through the World Bank and the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). The first covers the broad process of problem assessment, strategy development and action plan formulation; the second set deals with institutional analysis and training of staff of the official sanitary control services. The second proposal is that interested countries and donors should speed up the ongoing development of guidelines, computer software tools and training material to help countries quantify the importance and impact of food safety issues. The focus here is on a 'multipurpose agricultural data analysis and modelization system'. The third proposal is to carry out a case study to help demonstrate that a number of animal health issues related to food safety should be treated as relating to 'global public goods' and thus require intervention on a global scale. Possible candidates are foot and mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza.

International cooperation in the solution to trade-related invasive species risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Perrings, Charles; Burgiel, Stas; Lonsdale, Mark; Mooney, Harold; Williamson, Mark

2010-05-01

In this paper, we consider the factors behind the growth of invasive species as a global problem, and the scope for international cooperation and coordination in addressing that problem. This is limited by the terms of the various international agreements governing trade, health, and biodiversity. The default strategy in most cases has two parts: border protection and the control of or adaptation to introduced species that have escaped detection at the border. Most invasive species policy involves unilateral national defensive action as opposed to coordinated international action. We argue that an important part of the solution to the problem lies in global coordination and cooperation in the management of both pathways and sanitary and phytosanitary risks at all scales. More particularly, because invasive species are an externality of trade, transport, and travel that involve public goods, they require collective regulation of international markets that goes beyond that admitted under the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. We argue that it is important to bring that agreement into conformity with the International Health Regulations (IHR), and to develop an international mechanism to generate and disseminate information on invasive species risks and their impacts.

Gamma irradiation as a phytosanitary treatment for fresh pome fruits produced in Patagonia

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, J.; Lires, C.; Horak, C.; Pawlak, E.; Docters, A.; Kairiyama, E.

2009-07-01

Argentina produces 1.8 million tons/year of apples ( Malus domestica L.) and pears ( Pyrus communis L.) in the Patagonia region. Cydia pomonella, codling moth, and Grapholita molesta, Oriental fruit moth, ( Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) are quarantine pests in pome fruits. Irradiation is a promising phytosanitary treatment because a dose of 200 Gy completely prevents pest adult emergence. A pilot irradiation process of commercially packaged 'Red Delicious' apples and 'Packham's Triumph' pears was performed in an irradiation facility with a Cobalt 60 source. Quality analyses were carried out at 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 months of storage (1 °C, RH 99%) to evaluate fruit tolerance at 200, 400 and 800 Gy. Irradiation at 200 and 400 Gy had no undesirable effects on fruit quality (pulp firmness, external colour, soluble solids content (SSC), titratable acidity (TA) and sensory evaluations). Irradiation of 'Red Delicious' apples and 'Packham's Triumph' pears can be applied as a commercial quarantine treatment with a minimum absorbed dose of 200 Gy (to control codling moth and Oriental fruit moth) and <800 Gy (according to quality results).

Quantitative economic impact assessment of an invasive plant disease under uncertainty - a case study for potato spindle tuber viroid (PSTVd) invasion into the European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soliman, T.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

2012-01-01

International treaties require that phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests are justified by a science-based pest risk analysis, including an assessment of potential economic consequences. This study evaluates the economic justification of the currently applied

Modeling phytosanitary risk of unintended commodity use: the example of U.S. potato exports to Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Glenn; Erikson, Lottie; Caton, Barney; Gutierrez, Walter; Griffin, Robert

2014-09-01

Diversion of commodities from their intended use to an unintended use, e.g., when commodities intended for consumption are used as seed for planting, is an important issue in agricultural trade that has implications for the establishment of pests and pathogens in an importing country and for the appropriate strength of plant health measures. Consequently, understanding and accurately characterizing the risk of diversion from intended use is highly relevant to policymakers, trading partners, and in trade dispute arbitration. To our knowledge, no risk assessments have ever accounted for the likelihood of diversion from intended use. Here we present an approach to analyzing this risk using diversion of U.S. table stock potatoes to seed for planting by Mexican potato producers as a case study. We use probabilistic pathway models to characterize the movement of white, yellow, and russet potatoes from the United States into Mexico at current and double export volumes. We then model the likelihood of these potatoes being diverted for seed and the subsequent establishment of bacteria, nematode, and virus pests in Mexico. Our approach demonstrates how diversion from intended use can be quantified in one scenario and, in particular, how it can be analyzed to estimate the magnitude of diversion required to produce a high risk of pest establishment. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain for the U.S.A.

Adapting veterinary infrastructures to meet the challenges of globalisation and the requirements of the World Trade Organization Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiermann, A

2004-04-01

To maximise the benefits of globalisation, countries and their stakeholders must become familiar with and adhere to the rights and obligations set out by the World Trade Organization under the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. Furthermore, for trade in animals and animal products, they must adhere to the standards, guidelines and recommendations established by the OIE (World organisation for animal health), which also encourages participation of countries in the standard-setting process. Only after implementing these requirements and strengthening veterinary infrastructures and surveillance and monitoring systems, will countries be able to fully benefit from the new international trade rules.

Evolutionary tools for phytosanitary risk analysis: phylogenetic signal as a predictor of host range of plant pests and pathogens.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Gregory S; Magarey, Roger; Suiter, Karl; Webb, Campbell O

2012-12-01

Assessing risk from a novel pest or pathogen requires knowing which local plant species are susceptible. Empirical data on the local host range of novel pests are usually lacking, but we know that some pests are more likely to attack closely related plant species than species separated by greater evolutionary distance. We use the Global Pest and Disease Database, an internal database maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service - Plant Protection and Quarantine Division (USDA APHIS-PPQ), to evaluate the strength of the phylogenetic signal in host range for nine major groups of plant pests and pathogens. Eight of nine groups showed significant phylogenetic signal in host range. Additionally, pests and pathogens with more known hosts attacked a phylogenetically broader range of hosts. This suggests that easily obtained data - the number of known hosts and the phylogenetic distance between known hosts and other species of interest - can be used to predict which plant species are likely to be susceptible to a particular pest. This can facilitate rapid assessment of risk from novel pests and pathogens when empirical host range data are not yet available and guide efficient collection of empirical data for risk evaluation.

Evolutionary tools for phytosanitary risk analysis: phylogenetic signal as a predictor of host range of plant pests and pathogens

Science.gov (United States)

Gilbert, Gregory S; Magarey, Roger; Suiter, Karl; Webb, Campbell O

2012-01-01

Assessing risk from a novel pest or pathogen requires knowing which local plant species are susceptible. Empirical data on the local host range of novel pests are usually lacking, but we know that some pests are more likely to attack closely related plant species than species separated by greater evolutionary distance. We use the Global Pest and Disease Database, an internal database maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service – Plant Protection and Quarantine Division (USDA APHIS-PPQ), to evaluate the strength of the phylogenetic signal in host range for nine major groups of plant pests and pathogens. Eight of nine groups showed significant phylogenetic signal in host range. Additionally, pests and pathogens with more known hosts attacked a phylogenetically broader range of hosts. This suggests that easily obtained data – the number of known hosts and the phylogenetic distance between known hosts and other species of interest – can be used to predict which plant species are likely to be susceptible to a particular pest. This can facilitate rapid assessment of risk from novel pests and pathogens when empirical host range data are not yet available and guide efficient collection of empirical data for risk evaluation. PMID:23346231

Phytosanitary irradiation of peach fruit moth (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) in apple fruits

Science.gov (United States)

Zhan, Guoping; Li, Baishu; Gao, Meixu; Liu, Bo; Wang, Yuejin; Liu, Tao; Ren, Lili

2014-10-01

Peach fruit moth, Carposina sasakii Matsumura, is a serious pest of many pome and stone fruits and presents a quarantine problem in some export markets. It is widely distributed in pome fruit production areas in China, Japan, Korea, North Korea and the Far Eastern Federal District of Russia. In this investigation, gamma radiation dose-response tests were conducted with late eggs (5-d-old) and various larval stages, followed by large-scale confirmatory tests on the most tolerant stage in fruit, the fifth instar. The dose-response tests, with the target radiation dose of 20 (late eggs), 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, 140, and 160 Gy (late fifth instars in vitro) respectively applied to all stages, showed that the tolerance to radiation increased with increasing age and developmental stage. The fifth instar (most advanced instar in fruits) was determined to be the most tolerant stage requiring an estimated minimum absorbed dose of 208.6 Gy (95% CI: 195.0, 226.5 Gy) to prevent adult emergence at 99.9968% efficacy (95% confidence level). In the confirmatory tests, irradiation was applied to 30,850 late fifth instars in apple fruits with a target dose of 200 Gy (171.6-227.8 Gy measured), but only 4 deformed adults emerged that died 2 d afterwards without laying eggs. A dose of 228 Gy may be recommended as a phytosanitary irradiation treatment under ambient atmosphere for the control of peach fruit moth on all commodities with an efficacy of 99.9902% at 95% confidence level.

Risk of introducing exotic fruit flies, Ceratitis capitata, Ceratitis cosyra, and Ceratitis rosa (Diptera: Tephritidae), into southern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Baini; Ma, Jun; Hu, Xuenan; Liu, Haijun; Wu, Jiajiao; Chen, Hongjun; Zhang, Runjie

2010-08-01

Exotic fruit flies (Ceratitis spp.) are often serious agricultural pests. Here, we used, pathway analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of introduction of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch, into southern China with fruit consignments and incoming travelers. Historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature, and archives were used to set appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. Based on the ongoing quarantine/ inspection strategies of China, as well as the interception records, we estimated the annual number of each fruit fly species entering Guangdong province undetected with commercially imported fruit, and the associated risk. We also estimated the gross number of pests arriving at Guangdong ports with incoming travelers and the associated risk. Sensitivity analysis also was performed to test the impact of parameter changes and to assess how the risk could be reduced. Results showed that the risk of introduction of the three fruit fly species into southern China with fruit consignments, which are mostly transported by ship, exists but is relatively low. In contrast, the risk of introduction with incoming travelers is high and hence deserves intensive attention. Sensitivity analysis indicated that either ensuring all shipments meet current phytosanitary requirements or increasing the proportion of fruit imports sampled for inspection could substantially reduce the risk associated with commercial imports. Sensitivity analysis also provided justification for banning importation of fresh fruit by international travelers. Thus, inspection and quarantine in conjunction with intensive detection were important mitigation measures to reduce the risk of Ceratitis spp. introduced into China.

The FAO/IAEA co-ordinated research programme on ''Evaluation of Methods of Analysis for Determining Mycotoxin Contamination of Food and Feed''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doko, Bruno

2000-01-01

The present Co-ordinated Research Programme is to complement the FAO/IAEA Training and Reference Centre (TRC) for Food and Pesticide Control under the Centre's mission ''to assist Member States and their institutions to fulfill requirements to support the implementation of international safeguards/agreements relevant to food safety and control, the safe use of pesticides and sanitary and phytosanitary measures, by providing training, quality assurance services and technology transfer''. Based on the Global Environment Monitoring System - Food Contamination Monitoring and Assessment Programme (GEMS/Food) data and other national data on mycotoxin contamination, mycotoxins are a widespread problem of the food supplies in most countries. As a result, many countries have enacted regulations to control the level of mycotoxins in the national food supply as well as in food moving in international trade. At the international level, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, through its Committee on Food Additives and Contaminants and relevant commodity committees is considering the establishment of international guideline levels for various mycotoxins based on risk assessments performed by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives. Codex activities are of particular importance in view of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) Agreement specifically refers to Codex standards, guidelines and recommendations as representing the international consensus on health and safety requirements for food based on sound scientific risk assessment. This will require national authorities to give greater attention to the development of consistent and standardised approaches to regulations and their enforcement, including sampling and methods of analysis. Consequently, it is essential that the analytical capabilities of laboratories in developing countries are strengthened in order to enable them to effectively monitor the mycotoxin content of food in

CERN Multimedia

2006-01-01

INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS FOR PHYTOSANITARY MEASURES (ISPM), PUBLICATION NO. 15 GUIDELINES FOR REGULATING WOOD PACKAGING MATERIAL IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE This standard describes phytosanitary measures to reduce the risk of introduction and/or spread of quarantine pests associated with wood packaging material (including dunnage), made of coniferous and non-coniferous raw wood, in use in international trade

Tolerance of mango cv. ´Ataulfo' to irradiation with Co-60 vs. hydrothermal phytosanitary treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Simuta, Y.; Hernández, Emilio; Aceituno-Medina, Marysol; Liedo, Pablo; Escobar-López, Arseny; Montoya, Pablo; Bravo, Bigail; Hallman, Guy J.; Bustos, M. Emilia; Toledo, Jorge

2017-10-01

The use of ionizing irradiation or the use of hot water treatment (HWT) has been demonstrated as a successful commercial phytosanitary treatment during the past two decades. Several countries currently use this technology for commercial treatments to meet plant quarantine requirements. However, hydrothermal treatment has been found to significantly affect the firmness of ;Ataulfo; mango fruit, the susceptibility to damage by cold and it also accelerates their maturation. In this study, we focused on the effect of irradiation doses on the sensorial quality and the physiochemical properties of mango cv ;Ataulfo; compared with the traditional hot water treatment. We found that doses of 150 Gy and 300 Gy of gamma radiation can be applied successfully as well as the hot water treatment. There was no significant difference in between irradiation treatments in terms of weight loss, external and internal color, pH, soluble solids, titratable acidity and firmness, and consumer's acceptance. There was no adverse effect of color appearance, odor and flavor, indicating that consumers will have the willingness to buy and consume irradiated mangoes. Irradiation of mangoes can be a successful post-harvest treatment as an alternative to the hot water treatment.

Information security risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2001-01-01

Effective Risk AnalysisQualitative Risk AnalysisValue AnalysisOther Qualitative MethodsFacilitated Risk Analysis Process (FRAP)Other Uses of Qualitative Risk AnalysisCase StudyAppendix A: QuestionnaireAppendix B: Facilitated Risk Analysis Process FormsAppendix C: Business Impact Analysis FormsAppendix D: Sample of ReportAppendix E: Threat DefinitionsAppendix F: Other Risk Analysis OpinionsIndex

Assessment of weeds as alternative hosts of plant-parasitic nematodes in coffee plantations in Costa Rica

OpenAIRE

Walter Peraza-Padilla; Martha Orozco-Aceves

2018-01-01

There is potential for weeds to be alternative hosts of plant-parasitic nematodes (PPN), but a methodology that assesses the phytosanitary risk derived from the presence of weeds in plantations is not available. This research was conducted in order to determine if the presence of weeds in coffee plantations (organic and conventional) represented a phytosanitary risk due to their role as alternative hosts of PPN. The research was developed into two plantation located in Aserrí, San José, Costa...

Assessment of weeds as alternative hosts of plant-parasitic nematodes in coffee plantations in Costa Rica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Peraza-Padilla

2018-01-01

Full Text Available There is potential for weeds to be alternative hosts of plant-parasitic nematodes (PPN, but a methodology that assesses the phytosanitary risk derived from the presence of weeds in plantations is not available. This research was conducted in order to determine if the presence of weeds in coffee plantations (organic and conventional represented a phytosanitary risk due to their role as alternative hosts of PPN. The research was developed into two plantation located in Aserrí, San José, Costa Rica during August, 2010. The most important weeds were identified in the plantations, also nematodes of the genera Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus and Helicotylenchus were quantified in soil and roots from selected weeds and coffee plants. A permutational analysis of variance was executed in order to determine the genera of PPN that significantly differed from the ones found in weeds to the ones found in coffee plants. Based on these results, the weeds were classified as: reservoir, trap crop, or weak host of PPN. This classification criterion, in addition to life cycle and type of parasitism of the PPN were used to assign numerical values to the weeds. The values were used to calculate the Phytosanitary Risk Index (PRI that acquired a maximum value of 10 for the weed Piper umbellatum in the organic plantation, and a maximum value of 24 for Commelina diffusa, Emilia fosbergii, Spananthe paniculata, Delilia biflora, and Spermacoce hirta in the conventional plantation. The results indicated that from a nematological perspective the presence of these weeds in coffee plantation could be a potential risk for coffee plants

Patogenicidade de Beauveria bassiana ao psilídeo Diaphorina citri e compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários Beauveria bassiana pathogenicity to Diaphorina citri and compatibility of the fungus with phytosanitary products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Paula Ferreira Pinto

2012-12-01

Full Text Available O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a patogenicidade de Beauveria bassiana a ninfas de Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae e verificar a compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários e sua persistência em plantas de citros. Ninfas de D. citri foram pulverizadas com B. bassiana, nas concentrações 5x10(6, 1x10(7, 5x10(7, 1x10(8, 5x10(8 e 1x10(9 conídios mL-1, para determinação da concentração letal. Para avaliação da compatibilidade do fungo com produtos fitossanitários, extrato de nim e cinco inseticidas de quatro grupos químicos diferentes foram incorporados individualmente ao meio de cultura BDA em que o fungo foi cultivado. Avaliaram-se o crescimento vegetativo, a esporulação e a viabilidade do entomopatógeno. Plantas de citros, mantidas em casa de vegetação, foram tratadas primeiramente com os produtos fitossanitários e depois com o entomopatógeno. Avaliaram-se os tempos de exposição de 24 horas e de 7 e 14 dias. O fungo foi patogênico às ninfas de D. citri; a CL50 foi de 0,4x10(7 e a CL90 de 6,7x10(7 conidios mL-1, no décimo dia de avaliação. Em laboratório, os produtos fitosssanitários reduzem o crescimento do fungo. Em casa de vegetação, os produtos não afetam a sobrevivência do fungo nas plantas de citros.The objective of this work was to evaluate the pathogenicity of Beauveria bassiana to Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Psyllidae nymphs, and to check the compatibility of the fungus with phytosanitary products, and its persistence in citrus plants. Nymphs of D. citri were sprayed with B. bassiana in the concentrations 5x10(6, 1x10(7, 5x10(7, 1x10(8, 5x10(8 and 1x10(9 conidia mL-1 for lethal concentration determination. In order to evaluate the compatibility of the phytosanitary products with the fungus, neem extract and five insecticides of four different chemical groups were individually added to PDA culture medium, in which the fungus was cultivated. Vegetative growth, sporulation and viability

Comparative risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.

1988-01-01

In this paper, the risks of various energy systems are discussed considering severe accidents analysis, particularly the probabilistic safety analysis, and probabilistic safety criteria, and the applications of these criteria and analysis. The comparative risk analysis has demonstrated that the largest source of risk in every society is from daily small accidents. Nevertheless, we have to be more concerned about severe accidents. The comparative risk analysis of five different energy systems (coal, oil, gas, LWR and STEC (Solar)) for the public has shown that the main sources of risks are coal and oil. The latest comparative risk study of various energy has been conducted in the USA and has revealed that the number of victims from coal is 42 as many than victims from nuclear. A study for severe accidents from hydro-dams in United States has estimated the probability of dam failures at 1 in 10,000 years and the number of victims between 11,000 and 260,000. The average occupational risk from coal is one fatal accident in 1,000 workers/year. The probabilistic safety analysis is a method that can be used to assess nuclear energy risks, and to analyze the severe accidents, and to model all possible accident sequences and consequences. The 'Fault tree' analysis is used to know the probability of failure of the different systems at each point of accident sequences and to calculate the probability of risks. After calculating the probability of failure, the criteria for judging the numerical results have to be developed, that is the quantitative and qualitative goals. To achieve these goals, several systems have been devised by various countries members of AIEA. The probabilistic safety ana-lysis method has been developed by establishing a computer program permit-ting to know different categories of safety related information. 19 tabs. (author)

Foundations of Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Aven, Terje

2012-01-01

Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis - understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes:An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and

Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

2010-04-01

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

Integrating market chain assessments with zoonoses risk analysis in two cross-border pig value chains in Lao PDR.

Science.gov (United States)

Okello, Anna L; Tiemann, Tassilo T; Inthavong, Phouth; Khamlome, Boualam; Phengvilaysouk, Ammaly; Keonouchanh, Soukanh; Keokhamphet, Chattouphone; Somoulay, Virasack; Blaszak, Kate; Blacksell, Stuart D; Okello, Walter O; Allen, John

2017-11-01

Lao PDR's recent accession to the World Trade Organization necessitates a greater understanding of the patterns and risk of livestock production in order to better align national policy with the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This eco-health study was conducted to improve understanding of the interrelations between market chains and zoonotic infection risks at two strategic cross border points between Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Information gained from smallholder farmer/trader interviews was integrated with serological surveys for pig-associated zoonoses-including hepatitis E virus (HEV), Taenia solium (T. solium) and trichinella-to identify potential linkages between disease risk and pig production and slaughter in low input systems common across the country. Trichinella and HEV exposure was high in both humans and pigs in both study areas, significantly associated with pig slaughter and the subsequent consumption and handling of raw pork products. T. solium demonstrated a strong geographical and ethnic association with the northern study area bordering Vietnam. With the right knowledge and accessible, affordable inputs, the majority of smallholder farmers indicated a willingness to invest more in pig production, which could simultaneously improve livelihoods and decrease exposure to HEV, Trichinella, and T. solium through increased access to formal markets and an improved slaughter processes. The linkages identified when assessing disease risk in the context of potential economic and cultural drivers of transmission highlight the importance of a systems-based approach for the detection and control of zoonotic disease, and contributes to an improved understanding of the Lao PDR livestock sector.

Is risk analysis scientific?

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove; Aven, Terje

2014-07-01

This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part). © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental modeling and health risk analysis (ACTS/RISK)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Aral, M. M

2010-01-01

... presents a review of the topics of exposure and health risk analysis. The Analytical Contaminant Transport Analysis System (ACTS) and Health RISK Analysis (RISK) software tools are an integral part of the book and provide computational platforms for all the models discussed herein. The most recent versions of these two softwa...

ProRisk : risk analysis instrument : developed for William properties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Doorn, W.H.W.; Egeberg, Ingrid; Hendrickx, Kristoff; Kahramaner, Y.; Masseur, B.; Waijers, Koen; Weglicka, K.A.

2005-01-01

This report presents a Risk Analysis Instrument developed for William Properties. Based on the analysis, it appears that the practice of Risk Analysis exists within the organization, yet rather implicit. The Risk Analysis Instrument comes with a package of four components: an activity diagram, a

Observations on risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, W.A. Jr.

1979-11-01

This paper briefly describes WASH 1400 and the Lewis report. It attempts to define basic concepts such as risk and risk analysis, common mode failure, and rare event. Several probabilistic models which go beyond the WASH 1400 methodology are introduced; the common characteristic of these models is that they recognize explicitly that risk analysis is time dependent whereas WASH 1400 takes a per demand failure rate approach which obscures the important fact that accidents are time related. Further, the presentation of a realistic risk analysis should recognize that there are various risks which compete with one another for the lives of the individuals at risk. A way of doing this is suggested

Coordinated risk informed regulation: a conceptual approach illustrated by the industry of phytosanitary radiation treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wieland, Patricia

2012-01-01

Regulatory bodies control areas such as health, environment, safety, transportation, finance or any other area of strategic importance to the national sustainable development, where the free activity of economic agents will not lead to socially desirable results. In Brazil, industrial activities impacting on different social and economic segments may be subject to regulation by several governmental agencies, with different cultures, requirements, procedures, and deadlines. To approve an industrial undertaking, most often each regulator analyzes in isolation the aspect of its concern. Also in monitoring and enforcement, the agencies usually act individually. The proliferation and fragmentation of regulation have, in some cases, delayed or even inhibited the development of industrial activities, and thus, working against the very purpose of regulation. This thesis illustrates the current situation with the regulation on food irradiation services, proposes and justifies an organizational structure to enhance coordination among regulatory agencies by aligning their activities and avoiding inconsistencies, overlaps and omissions. This structure comprises, among other mechanisms, a single Internet portal on Federal Regulation, an integrated and dynamic risk analysis and the harmonization of decision-making. The purpose is to promote regulation predictability, regulatory action consistency, optimization of public resources, transparency in the agencies' decision making, and to bring benefits to the entrepreneurs by offering them real-time monitoring and more agile processes. (author)

Integrating market chain assessments with zoonoses risk analysis in two cross-border pig value chains in Lao PDR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna L Okello

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Objective Lao PDR’s recent accession to the World Trade Organization necessitates a greater understanding of the patterns and risk of livestock production in order to better align national policy with the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This eco-health study was conducted to improve understanding of the interrelations between market chains and zoonotic infection risks at two strategic cross border points between Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Methods Information gained from smallholder farmer/trader interviews was integrated with serological surveys for pig-associated zoonoses—including hepatitis E virus (HEV, Taenia solium (T. solium and trichinella—to identify potential linkages between disease risk and pig production and slaughter in low input systems common across the country. Results Trichinella and HEV exposure was high in both humans and pigs in both study areas, significantly associated with pig slaughter and the subsequent consumption and handling of raw pork products. T. solium demonstrated a strong geographical and ethnic association with the northern study area bordering Vietnam. With the right knowledge and accessible, affordable inputs, the majority of smallholder farmers indicated a willingness to invest more in pig production, which could simultaneously improve livelihoods and decrease exposure to HEV, Trichinella, and T. solium through increased access to formal markets and an improved slaughter processes. Conclusion The linkages identified when assessing disease risk in the context of potential economic and cultural drivers of transmission highlight the importance of a systems-based approach for the detection and control of zoonotic disease, and contributes to an improved understanding of the Lao PDR livestock sector.

Integrating market chain assessments with zoonoses risk analysis in two cross-border pig value chains in Lao PDR

Science.gov (United States)

Okello, Anna L; Tiemann, Tassilo T; Inthavong, Phouth; Khamlome, Boualam; Phengvilaysouk, Ammaly; Keonouchanh, Soukanh; Keokhamphet, Chattouphone; Somoulay, Virasack; Blaszak, Kate; Blacksell, Stuart D; Okello, Walter O; Allen, John

2017-01-01

Objective Lao PDR’s recent accession to the World Trade Organization necessitates a greater understanding of the patterns and risk of livestock production in order to better align national policy with the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This eco-health study was conducted to improve understanding of the interrelations between market chains and zoonotic infection risks at two strategic cross border points between Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Methods Information gained from smallholder farmer/trader interviews was integrated with serological surveys for pig-associated zoonoses—including hepatitis E virus (HEV), Taenia solium (T. solium) and trichinella—to identify potential linkages between disease risk and pig production and slaughter in low input systems common across the country. Results Trichinella and HEV exposure was high in both humans and pigs in both study areas, significantly associated with pig slaughter and the subsequent consumption and handling of raw pork products. T. solium demonstrated a strong geographical and ethnic association with the northern study area bordering Vietnam. With the right knowledge and accessible, affordable inputs, the majority of smallholder farmers indicated a willingness to invest more in pig production, which could simultaneously improve livelihoods and decrease exposure to HEV, Trichinella, and T. solium through increased access to formal markets and an improved slaughter processes. Conclusion The linkages identified when assessing disease risk in the context of potential economic and cultural drivers of transmission highlight the importance of a systems-based approach for the detection and control of zoonotic disease, and contributes to an improved understanding of the Lao PDR livestock sector. PMID:28423884

Unsharpness-risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preyssl, C.

1986-01-01

Safety analysis provides the only tool for evaluation and quantification of rare or hypothetical events leading to system failure. So far probability theory has been used for the fault- and event-tree methodology. The phenomenon of uncertainties constitutes an important aspect in risk analysis. Uncertainties can be classified as originating from 'randomness' or 'fuzziness'. Probability theory addresses randomness only. The use of 'fuzzy set theory' makes it possible to include both types of uncertainty in the mathematical model of risk analysis. Thus the 'fuzzy fault tree' is expressed in 'possibilistic' terms implying a range of simplifications and improvements. 'Human failure' and 'conditionality' can be treated correctly. Only minimum-maximum relations are used to combine the possibility distributions of events. Various event-classifications facilitate the interpretation of the results. The method is demonstrated by application to a TRIGA-research reactor. Uncertainty as an implicit part of 'fuzzy risk' can be quantified explicitly using an 'uncertainty measure'. Based on this the 'degree of relative compliance' with a quantizative safety goal can be defined for a particular risk. The introduction of 'weighting functionals' guarantees the consideration of the importances attached to different parts of the risk exceeding or complying with the standard. The comparison of two reference systems is demonstrated in a case study. It is concluded that any application of the 'fuzzy risk analysis' has to be free of any hypostatization when reducing subjective to objective information. (Author)

RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

1996-10-01

The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, J.H.; Nunez McLeod, J.; Rivera, S.S.

1997-01-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field [es

A background risk analysis. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques, described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 1 contains a short history of risk analysis, and chapters on risk, failures, errors and accidents, and general procedures for risk analysis. (BP)

International Conference on Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Oliveira, Teresa; Rigas, Alexandros; Gulati, Sneh

2015-01-01

This book covers the latest results in the field of risk analysis. Presented topics include probabilistic models in cancer research, models and methods in longevity, epidemiology of cancer risk, engineering reliability and economical risk problems. The contributions of this volume originate from the 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis (ICRA 5). The conference brought together researchers and practitioners working in the field of risk analysis in order to present new theoretical and computational methods with applications in biology, environmental sciences, public health, economics and finance.

Risk analysis: opening the process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Ph.; Mays, C.

1998-01-01

This conference on risk analysis took place in Paris, 11-14 october 1999. Over 200 paper where presented in the seven following sessions: perception; environment and health; persuasive risks; objects and products; personal and collective involvement; assessment and valuation; management. A rational approach to risk analysis has been developed in the three last decades. Techniques for risk assessment have been thoroughly enhanced, risk management approaches have been developed, decision making processes have been clarified, the social dimensions of risk perception and management have been investigated. Nevertheless this construction is being challenged by recent events which reveal how deficits in stakeholder involvement, openness and democratic procedures can undermine risk management actions. Indeed, the global process most components of risk analysis may be radically called into question. Food safety has lately been a prominent issue, but now debates appear, or old debates are revisited in the domains of public health, consumer products safety, waste management, environmental risks, nuclear installations, automobile safety and pollution. To meet the growing pressures for efficiency, openness, accountability, and multi-partner communication in risk analysis, institutional changes are underway in many European countries. However, the need for stakeholders to develop better insight into the process may lead to an evolution of all the components of risks analysis, even in its most (technical' steps. For stakeholders of different professional background, political projects, and responsibilities, risk identification procedures must be rendered understandable, quantitative risk assessment must be intelligible and accommodated in action proposals, ranging from countermeasures to educational programs to insurance mechanisms. Management formats must be open to local and political input and other types of operational feedback. (authors)

Adversarial risk analysis

CERN Document Server

Banks, David L; Rios Insua, David

2015-01-01

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. This new approach to risk analysis asserts that analysts should use Bayesian thinking to describe their beliefs about an opponent's goals, resources, optimism, and type of strategic calculation, such as minimax and level-k thinking. Within that framework, analysts then solve the problem from the perspective of the opponent while placing subjective probability distributions on a...

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justifi- cation or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appenix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 3 contains chapters on quantification of risk, failure and accident probability, risk analysis and design, and examles of risk analysis for process plant. (BP)

Improvements in Thermal Performance of Mango Hot-water Treatment Equipments: Data Analysis, Mathematical Modelling and Numerical-computational Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elder M. Mendoza Orbegoso

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Mango is one of the most popular and best paid tropical fruits in worldwide markets, its exportation is regulated within a phytosanitary quality control for killing the “fruit fly”. Thus, mangoes must be subject to hot-water treatment process that involves their immersion in hot water over a period of time. In this work, field measurements, analytical and simulation studies are developed on available hot-water treatment equipment called “Original” that only complies with United States phytosanitary protocols. These approaches are made to characterize the fluid-dynamic and thermal behaviours that occur during the mangoes’ hot-water treatment process. Then, analytical model and Computational fluid dynamics simulations are developed for designing new hot-water treatment equipment called “Hybrid” that simultaneously meets with both United States and Japan phytosanitary certifications. Comparisons of analytical results with data field measurements demonstrate that “Hybrid” equipment offers a better fluid-dynamic and thermal performance than “Original” ones.

Environmental risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima-e-Silva, Pedro Paulo de

1996-01-01

The conventional Risk Analysis (RA) relates usually a certain undesired event frequency with its consequences. Such technique is used nowadays in Brazil to analyze accidents and their consequences strictly under the human approach, valuing loss of human equipment, human structures and human lives, without considering the damage caused to natural resources that keep life possible on Earth. This paradigm was developed primarily because of the Homo sapiens' lack of perception upon the natural web needed to sustain his own life. In reality, the Brazilian professionals responsible today for licensing, auditing and inspecting environmental aspects of human activities face huge difficulties in making technical specifications and procedures leading to acceptable levels of impact, furthermore considering the intrinsic difficulties to define those levels. Therefore, in Brazil the RA technique is a weak tool for licensing for many reasons, and of them are its short scope (only accident considerations) and wrong a paradigm (only human direct damages). A paper from the author about the former was already proposed to the 7th International Conference on Environmetrics, past July'96, USP-SP. This one discusses the extension of the risk analysis concept to take into account environmental consequences, transforming the conventional analysis into a broader methodology named here as Environmental Risk Analysis. (author)

Component of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, I.; Campon, G.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation reviews issues like analysis of risk (Codex), management risk, preliminary activities manager, relationship between government and industries, microbiological danger and communication of risk

Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

OpenAIRE

Wehrspohn, Uwe

2002-01-01

An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

2016-01-01

Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

Risk analysis in radiosurgery treatments using risk matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delgado, J. M.; Sanchez Cayela, C.; Ramirez, M. L.; Perez, A.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study is the risk analysis process stereotactic single-dose radiotherapy and evaluation of those initiating events that lead to increased risk and a possible solution in the design of barriers.

Risk analysis of Odelouca cofferdam

OpenAIRE

Pimenta, L.; Caldeira, L.; Maranha das Neves, E.

2009-01-01

In this paper we present the risk analysis of Odelouca Cofferdam, using an event tree analysis. The initializing events, failure modes and analysed limit states are discussed based on an influence diagram. The constructed event trees and their interpretation are presented. The obtained risk values are represented in an FN plot superimposed to the acceptability and tolerability risk limits proposed for Portuguese dams. Initially, particular emphasis is placed on the main characteristic...

Generalized indices for radiation risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bykov, A.A.; Demin, V.F.

1989-01-01

A new approach to ensuring nuclear safety has begun forming since the early eighties. The approach based on the probabilistic safety analysis, the principles of acceptable risk, the optimization of safety measures, etc. has forced a complex of adequate quantitative methods of assessment, safety analysis and risk management to be developed. The method of radiation risk assessment and analysis hold a prominent place in the complex. National and international research and regulatory organizations ICRP, IAEA, WHO, UNSCEAR, OECD/NEA have given much attention to the development of the conceptual and methodological basis of those methods. Some resolutions of the National Commission of Radiological Protection (NCRP) and the Problem Commission on Radiation Hygiene of the USSR Ministry of Health should be also noted. Both CBA (cost benefit analysis) and other methods of radiation risk analysis and safety management use a system of natural and socio-economic indices characterizing the radiation risk or damage. There exist a number of problems associated with the introduction, justification and use of these indices. For example, the price, a, of radiation damage, or collective dose unit, is a noteworthy index. The difficulties in its qualitative and quantitative determination are still an obstacle for a wide application of CBA to the radiation risk analysis and management. During recent 10-15 years these problems have been a subject of consideration for many authors. The present paper also considers the issues of the qualitative and quantitative justification of the indices of radiation risk analysis

Reliability and validity of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Heide, Bjornar

2009-01-01

In this paper we investigate to what extent risk analysis meets the scientific quality requirements of reliability and validity. We distinguish between two types of approaches within risk analysis, relative frequency-based approaches and Bayesian approaches. The former category includes both traditional statistical inference methods and the so-called probability of frequency approach. Depending on the risk analysis approach, the aim of the analysis is different, the results are presented in different ways and consequently the meaning of the concepts reliability and validity are not the same.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 2 treats generic methods of qualitative failure analysis. (BP)

Information Security Risk Analysis

CERN Document Server

Peltier, Thomas R

2010-01-01

Offers readers with the knowledge and the skill-set needed to achieve a highly effective risk analysis assessment. This title demonstrates how to identify threats and then determine if those threats pose a real risk. It is suitable for industry and academia professionals.

Bias in risk-benefit analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.

1985-01-01

Risk-benefit analysis has become popular in the past decade as a means of improving decision making, especially in the area of technology policy. Here risk-benefit analysis is compared to other (equally defensible) approaches to decision making, showing how it favors some political interests more than others, and suggesting why it has recently come to the fore as a tool of political analysis. A considerable portion of the discussion concerns nuclear power. 6 references

A background to risk analysis. Vol. 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.R.

1979-01-01

This 4-volumes report gives a background of ideas, principles, and examples which might be of use in developing practical methods for risk analysis. Some of the risk analysis techniques described are somewhat experimental. The report is written in an introductory style, but where some point needs further justification or evaluation, this is given in the form of a chapter appendix. In this way, it is hoped that the report can serve two purposes, - as a basis for starting risk analysis work and as a basis for discussing effectiveness of risk analysis procedures. The report should be seen as a preliminary stage, prior to a program of industrial trials of risk analysis methods. Vol. 4 treats human error in plant operation. (BP)

Mapping for the management of diffuse pollution risks related to agricultural plant protection practices: case of the Etang de l'Or catchment area in France.

Science.gov (United States)

Mghirbi, Oussama; Bord, Jean-Paul; Le Grusse, Philippe; Mandart, Elisabeth; Fabre, Jacques

2018-03-08

Faced with health, environmental, and socio-economic issues related to the heavy use of pesticides, diffuse phytosanitary pollution becomes a major concern shared by all the field actors. These actors, namely the farmers and territorial managers, have expressed the need to implement decision support tools for the territorial management of diffuse pollution resulting from the plant protection practices and their impacts. To meet these steadily increasing requests, a cartographic analysis approach was implemented based on GIS which allows the spatialization of the diffuse pollution impacts related to plant protection practices on the Etang de l'Or catchment area in the South of France. Risk mapping represents a support-decision tool that enables the different field actors to identify and locate vulnerable areas, so as to determine action plans and agri-environmental measures depending on the context of the natural environment. This work shows that mapping is helpful for managing risks related to the use of pesticides in agriculture by employing indicators of pressure (TFI) and risk on the applicator's health (IRSA) and on the environment (IRTE). These indicators were designed to assess the impact of plant protection practices at various spatial scales (field, farm, etc.). The cartographic analysis of risks related to plant protection practices shows that diffuse pollution is unequally located in the North (known for its abundant garrigues and vineyards) and in the South of the Etang de l'Or catchment area (the Mauguio-Lunel agricultural plain known for its diversified cropping systems). This spatial inequity is essentially related to land use and agricultural production system. Indeed, the agricultural lands cover about 60% of the total catchment area. Consequently, this cartographic analysis helps the territorial actors with the implementation of strategies for managing risks of diffuse pollution related to pesticides use in agriculture, based on environmental and

Advances in probabilistic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardung von Hardung, H.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis can now look back upon almost a quarter century of intensive development. The early studies, whose methods and results are still referred to occasionally, however, only permitted rough estimates to be made of the probabilities of recognizable accident scenarios, failing to provide a method which could have served as a reference base in calculating the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. The first truly solid attempt was the Rasmussen Study and, partly based on it, the German Risk Study. In those studies, probabilistic risk analysis has been given a much more precise basis. However, new methodologies have been developed in the meantime, which allow much more informative risk studies to be carried out. They have been found to be valuable tools for management decisions with respect to backfitting, reinforcement and risk limitation. Today they are mainly applied by specialized private consultants and have already found widespread application especially in the USA. (orig.) [de

WIPP fire hazards and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-05-01

The purpose of this analysis was to conduct a fire hazards risk analysis of the Transuranic (TRU) contact-handled waste receipt, emplacement, and disposal activities at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The technical bases and safety envelope for these operations are defined in the approved WIPP Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Although the safety documentation for the initial phase of the Test Program, the dry bin scale tests, has not yet been approved by the Department of Energy (DOE), reviews of the draft to date, including those by the Advisory Committee on Nuclear Facility Safety (ACNFS), have concluded that the dry bin scale tests present no significant risks in excess of those estimated in the approved WIPP FSAR. It is the opinion of the authors and reviewers of this analysis, based on sound engineering judgment and knowledge of the WIPP operations, that a Fire Hazards and Risk Analysis specific to the dry bin scale test program is not warranted prior to first waste receipt. This conclusion is further supported by the risk analysis presented in this document which demonstrates the level of risk to WIPP operations posed by fire to be extremely low. 15 refs., 41 figs., 48 tabs

Risk profile of microbiological and chemical contamination in the production chain of nine horticultural products for fresh consumption of a group of agricultural companies in the Costa Rican Central Valley

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillermo Vargas Hernández

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The risk of microbiological or chemical contamination was determined in each of the processes of the production system of produce for fresh consumption, in a population of 164 agricultural companies in the central valley of Costa Rica. The risk quantification was calculated using the responses to a 46-item survey conducted with the managers of the companies included in the study. The responses to the 46 items were grouped according to the production process; the risk contamination calculation formula validated by the authors in another study was used to obtain the risk value per process. The microbiological or chemical contamination risk results were calculated for the land preparation and planting process, cultural management of the crop, human factor performing the cultural management of the crop, phytosanitary control, harvesting, packaging, and the human factor involved in packaging. The risk analysis results indicate that the human factor participating in the packaging obtains the highest risk rating, followed by the cultural management of the crop and, in third place, by the harvesting process. In all processes where the risk was quantified, the results showed values close to or greater than 50 in a 0 to 100 risk scale. These results should alert producers and consumers of produce for fresh consumption in the analyzed population. The effect of the buyer on the packaging risk values was also observed; when the producers are supermarket chain suppliers the risk values are lower as compared to those of producers who are not supermarket chain suppliers.

Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Tsan-Ming; Lambert, James H

2017-08-01

With cloud computing, Internet-of-things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning of big data for risk analysis. We then examine recent advances in risk analysis with big data in several topic areas. For each area, we identify and introduce the relevant articles that are featured in the special issue. We conclude with a discussion on future research opportunities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2015-01-01

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

Risk Analysis of Telecom Enterprise Financing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Hua; SHU Hua-ying

2005-01-01

The main research objects in this paper are the causes searching and risk estimating method for telecom enterprises' financial risks. The multi-mode financing for telecom enterprises makes it flexible to induce the capital and obtain the profit by corresponding projects. But there are also potential risks going with these financing modes. After making analysis of categories and causes of telecom enterprises' financing risk, a method by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is put forward to estimating the financing risk. And the author makes her suggestion and opinion by example analysis, in order to provide some ideas and basis for telecom enterprise's financing decision-making.

Probabilistic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptmanns, U.

1988-01-01

Risk analysis is applied if the calculation of risk from observed failures is not possible, because events contributing substantially to risk are too seldom, as in the case of nuclear reactors. The process of analysis provides a number of benefits. Some of them are listed. After this by no means complete enumeration of possible benefits to be derived from a risk analysis. An outline of risk studiesd for PWR's with some comments on the models used are given. The presentation is indebted to the detailed treatment of the subject given in the PRA Procedures Guide. Thereafter some results of the German Risk Study, Phase B, which is under way are communicated. The paper concludes with some remarks on probabilistic considerations in licensing procedures. (orig./DG)

Single-shell tank interim stabilization risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basche, A.D.

1998-01-01

The purpose of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Interim Stabilization Risk Analysis is to provide a cost and schedule risk analysis of HNF-2358, Rev. 1, Single-Shell Tank Interim Stabilization Project Plan (Project Plan) (Ross et al. 1998). The analysis compares the required cost profile by fiscal year (Section 4.2) and revised schedule completion date (Section 4.5) to the Project Plan. The analysis also evaluates the executability of the Project Plan and recommends a path forward for risk mitigation

Multiple Sclerosis Increases Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guixian Dong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The association between multiple sclerosis (MS and fracture risk has been reported, but results of previous studies remain controversial and ambiguous. To assess the association between MS and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Method. Based on comprehensive searches of the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, we identified outcome data from all articles estimating the association between MS and fracture risk. The pooled risk ratios (RRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results. A significant association between MS and fracture risk was found. This result remained statistically significant when the adjusted RRs were combined. Subgroup analysis stratified by the site of fracture suggested significant associations between MS and tibia fracture risk, femur fracture risk, hip fracture risk, pelvis fracture risk, vertebrae fracture risk, and humerus fracture risk. In the subgroup analysis by gender, female MS patients had increased fracture risk. When stratified by history of drug use, use of antidepressants, hypnotics/anxiolytics, anticonvulsants, and glucocorticoids increased the risk of fracture risk in MS patients. Conclusions. This meta-analysis demonstrated that MS was significantly associated with fracture risk.

Challenges to developing countries after joining WTO: risk assessment of chemicals in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Junshi

2004-01-01

FAO/WHO encourages member countries to develop national food control measures based on risk assessment in order to assure proper protection level to consumers and facilitate fair trade. This is particularly important for developing countries as WTO members because it is clearly stated in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) Agreement that: (a) SPS measures should be based on risk assessment techniques developed by relevant international organizations; and (b) Codex standards which is based on risk assessment are regarded as the international norm in trade dispute settlement. When conducting risk assessment on food chemicals (including additives and contaminants) in developing countries, in most cases it is not necessary to conduct their own hazard characterization because the ADIs or PTWIs of food chemicals developed by international expert groups (e.g. JECFA) are universally applicable and also developing countries do not have the resources to repeat those expensive toxicological studies. On the other hand, it is necessary to conduct exposure assessment in developing countries because exposure to food chemicals varies from country to country. This is not only crucial in setting national standards, but also very important for developing countries to participate in the process of developing Codex standards. In addition to food standard development, risk assessment is also useful in setting up priorities in imported food inspection and evaluating the success of various food safety control measures

Challenges to developing countries after joining WTO: risk assessment of chemicals in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Junshi

2004-05-20

FAO/WHO encourages member countries to develop national food control measures based on risk assessment in order to assure proper protection level to consumers and facilitate fair trade. This is particularly important for developing countries as WTO members because it is clearly stated in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) Agreement that: (a) SPS measures should be based on risk assessment techniques developed by relevant international organizations; and (b) Codex standards which is based on risk assessment are regarded as the international norm in trade dispute settlement. When conducting risk assessment on food chemicals (including additives and contaminants) in developing countries, in most cases it is not necessary to conduct their own hazard characterization because the ADIs or PTWIs of food chemicals developed by international expert groups (e.g. JECFA) are universally applicable and also developing countries do not have the resources to repeat those expensive toxicological studies. On the other hand, it is necessary to conduct exposure assessment in developing countries because exposure to food chemicals varies from country to country. This is not only crucial in setting national standards, but also very important for developing countries to participate in the process of developing Codex standards. In addition to food standard development, risk assessment is also useful in setting up priorities in imported food inspection and evaluating the success of various food safety control measures.

38 CFR 75.115 - Risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk analysis. 75.115 Section 75.115 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) INFORMATION SECURITY MATTERS Data Breaches § 75.115 Risk analysis. If a data breach involving sensitive personal information that is processed or...

Common approach of risks analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noviello, L.; Naviglio, A.

1996-01-01

Although, following the resolutions of the High German Court, the protection level of the human beings is an objective which can change in time, it is obvious that it is an important point when there is a risk for the population. This is true more particularly for the industrial plants whose possible accidents could affect the population. The accidents risk analysis indicates that there is no conceptual difference between the risks of a nuclear power plant and those of the other industrial plants as chemical plants, the gas distribution system and the hydraulic dams. A legislation analysis induced by the Seveso Directive for the industrial risks give some important indications which should always be followed. This work analyses more particularly the legislative situation in different European countries and identifies some of the most important characteristics. Indeed, for most of the countries, the situation is different and it is a later difficulties source for nuclear power plants. In order to strengthen this reasoning, this paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of a nuclear power plant following the approach of other industrial plants. In conclusion, it will be necessary to analyse again the risks assessment approach for nuclear power plants because the real protection level of human beings in a country is determined by the less regulated of the dangerous industrial plants existing at the surroundings. (O.M.)

Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

Introduction of the risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campon, G.; Martinez, I.

2013-01-01

An introduction of risks analysis was given in the exposition which main issues were: food innocuousness, world, regional and national food context,change of paradigms, health definition, risk, codex, standardization, food chain role, trade agreement, codex alimentarius, food transmission diseases cost impact

Risk Analysis Group annual progress report 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-06-01

The activities of the Risk Analysis Group at Risoe during 1984 are presented. These include descriptions in some detail of work on general development topics and risk analysis performed as contractor. (author)

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

Science.gov (United States)

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

RISK ANALYSIS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATION OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edmir Parada Vasques Prado

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This research aims at evaluating the risk analysis process in Information Technology and Communication (ICT outsourcing conducted by organizations of the private sector. The research is characterized by being a descriptive, quantitative and transversal type study, which was used the survey method. Data were collected through questionnaire, the sample is not random and we used a convenience sampling process. The research made contributions to understanding the risk analysis process in ICT services outsourcing, and identified statistically significant relationships between risk analysis, organization's size and its industry, and between risk analysis and diversity of outsourced services

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis, and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk

Methods for Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alverbro, Karin

2010-01-01

Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

Flood Risk Assessment Based On Security Deficit Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, J.; Metzger, R.; Hingray, B.; Musy, A.

Risk is a human perception: a given risk may be considered as acceptable or unac- ceptable depending on the group that has to face that risk. Flood risk analysis of- ten estimates economic losses from damages, but neglects the question of accept- able/unacceptable risk. With input from land use managers, politicians and other stakeholders, risk assessment based on security deficit analysis determines objects with unacceptable risk and their degree of security deficit. Such a risk assessment methodology, initially developed by the Swiss federal authorities, is illustrated by its application on a reach of the Alzette River (Luxembourg) in the framework of the IRMA-SPONGE FRHYMAP project. Flood risk assessment always involves a flood hazard analysis, an exposed object vulnerability analysis, and an analysis combing the results of these two previous analyses. The flood hazard analysis was done with the quasi-2D hydraulic model FldPln to produce flood intensity maps. Flood intensity was determined by the water height and velocity. Object data for the vulnerability analysis, provided by the Luxembourg government, were classified according to their potential damage. Potential damage is expressed in terms of direct, human life and secondary losses. A thematic map was produced to show the object classification. Protection goals were then attributed to the object classes. Protection goals are assigned in terms of an acceptable flood intensity for a certain flood frequency. This is where input from land use managers and politicians comes into play. The perception of risk in the re- gion or country influences the protection goal assignment. Protection goals as used in Switzerland were used in this project. Thematic maps showing the protection goals of each object in the case study area for a given flood frequency were produced. Com- parison between an object's protection goal and the intensity of the flood that touched the object determine the acceptability of the risk and the

Analysis and management of risks experienced in tunnel construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cagatay Pamukcu

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, first of all, the definitions of "risk", "risk analysis", "risk assessment" and "risk management" were made to avoid any confusions about these terms and significance of risk analysis and management in engineering projects was emphasized. Then, both qualitative and quantitative risk analysis techniques were mentioned and within the scope of the study, Event Tree Analysis method was selected in order to analyze the risks regarding TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine operations in tunnel construction. After all hazards that would be encountered during tunnel construction by TBM method had been investigated, those hazards were undergoing a Preliminary Hazard Analysis to sort out and prioritize the risks with high scores. When the risk scores were taken into consideration, it was seen that the hazards with high risk scores could be classified into 4 groups which are excavation + support induced accidents, accidents stemming from geologic conditions, auxiliary works, and project contract. According to these four classified groups of initiating events, Event Tree Analysis was conducted by taking into care 4 countermeasures apart from each other. Finally, the quantitative and qualitative consequences of Event Tree Analyses, which were undertaken for all initiating events, were investigated and interpreted together by making comparisons and referring to previous studies.

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Computational Aspects of Dam Risk Analysis: Findings and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Escuder-Bueno

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In recent years, risk analysis techniques have proved to be a useful tool to inform dam safety management. This paper summarizes the outcomes of three themes related to dam risk analysis discussed in the Benchmark Workshops organized by the International Commission on Large Dams Technical Committee on “Computational Aspects of Analysis and Design of Dams.” In the 2011 Benchmark Workshop, estimation of the probability of failure of a gravity dam for the sliding failure mode was discussed. Next, in 2013, the discussion focused on the computational challenges of the estimation of consequences in dam risk analysis. Finally, in 2015, the probability of sliding and overtopping in an embankment was analyzed. These Benchmark Workshops have allowed a complete review of numerical aspects for dam risk analysis, showing that risk analysis methods are a very useful tool to analyze the risk of dam systems, including downstream consequence assessments and the uncertainty of structural models.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Putting problem formulation at the forefront of GMO risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tepfer, Mark; Racovita, Monica; Craig, Wendy

2013-01-01

When applying risk assessment and the broader process of risk analysis to decisions regarding the dissemination of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the process has a tendency to become remarkably complex. Further, as greater numbers of countries consider authorising the large-scale dissemination of GMOs, and as GMOs with more complex traits reach late stages of development, there has been increasing concern about the burden posed by the complexity of risk analysis. We present here an improved approach for GMO risk analysis that gives a central role to problem formulation. Further, the risk analysis strategy has been clarified and simplified in order to make rigorously scientific risk assessment and risk analysis more broadly accessible to diverse stakeholder groups.

Streamlining project delivery through risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-08-01

Project delivery is a significant area of concern and is subject to several risks throughout Plan Development : Process (PDP). These risks are attributed to major areas of project development, such as environmental : analysis, right-of-way (ROW) acqu...

Reliability and risk analysis methods research plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-10-01

This document presents a plan for reliability and risk analysis methods research to be performed mainly by the Reactor Risk Branch (RRB), Division of Risk Analysis and Operations (DRAO), Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. It includes those activities of other DRAO branches which are very closely related to those of the RRB. Related or interfacing programs of other divisions, offices and organizations are merely indicated. The primary use of this document is envisioned as an NRC working document, covering about a 3-year period, to foster better coordination in reliability and risk analysis methods development between the offices of Nuclear Regulatory Research and Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It will also serve as an information source for contractors and others to more clearly understand the objectives, needs, programmatic activities and interfaces together with the overall logical structure of the program

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2014-01-15

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

RISK ANALYSIS APPLIED IN OIL EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ES Obe

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria. ... The analysis in this work is ... risk analysis, oil field, risk management, projects, investment opportunity. 1. .... own merit but since the company has limited.

Potential economic impact of limiting the international trade of timber as a phytosanitary measure

Science.gov (United States)

Ruhong Li; J. Buongiorno; S. Zhu; J.A. Turner; J. Prestemon

2007-01-01

We assessed the impact on the world forest sector of reducing the risk of exotic pest spread by curtailing the roundwood trade. The analysis compared predictions from 2006 to 2015, with and without a gradual ban of roundwood exports between 2006 and 2010. With a ban on roundwood trade, world consumer expenditures for wood products and producer revenues would rise by 2...

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Urban flooding and health risk analysis by use of quantitative microbial risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Signe Tanja

D thesis is to identify the limitations and possibilities for optimising microbial risk assessments of urban flooding through more evidence-based solutions, including quantitative microbial data and hydrodynamic water quality models. The focus falls especially on the problem of data needs and the causes......, but also when wading through a flooded area. The results in this thesis have brought microbial risk assessments one step closer to more uniform and repeatable risk analysis by using actual and relevant measured data and hydrodynamic water quality models to estimate the risk from flooding caused...... are expected to increase in the future. To ensure public health during extreme rainfall, solutions are needed, but limited knowledge on microbial water quality, and related health risks, makes it difficult to implement microbial risk analysis as a part of the basis for decision making. The main aim of this Ph...

Probabilistic risk analysis in chemical engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmalz, F.

1991-01-01

In risk analysis in the chemical industry, recognising potential risks is considered more important than assessing their quantitative extent. Even in assessing risks, emphasis is not on the probability involved but on the possible extent. Qualitative assessment has proved valuable here. Probabilistic methods are used in individual cases where the wide implications make it essential to be able to assess the reliability of safety precautions. In this case, assessment therefore centres on the reliability of technical systems and not on the extent of a chemical risk. 7 figs

Method for environmental risk analysis (MIRA) revision 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-04-01

OLF's instruction manual for carrying out environmental risk analyses provides a united approach and a common framework for environmental risk assessments. This is based on the best information available. The manual implies standardizations of a series of parameters, input data and partial analyses that are included in the environmental risk analysis. Environmental risk analyses carried out according to the MIRA method will thus be comparable between fields and between companies. In this revision an update of the text in accordance with today's practice for environmental risk analyses and prevailing regulations is emphasized. Moreover, method adjustments for especially protected beach habitats have been introduced, as well as a general method for estimating environmental risk concerning fish. Emphasis has also been put on improving environmental risk analysis' possibilities to contribute to a better management of environmental risk in the companies (ml)

Evaluating the risks of clinical research: direct comparative analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rid, Annette; Abdoler, Emily; Roberson-Nay, Roxann; Pine, Daniel S; Wendler, David

2014-09-01

Many guidelines and regulations allow children and adolescents to be enrolled in research without the prospect of clinical benefit when it poses minimal risk. However, few systematic methods exist to determine when research risks are minimal. This situation has led to significant variation in minimal risk judgments, raising concern that some children are not being adequately protected. To address this concern, we describe a new method for implementing the widely endorsed "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. This standard defines research risks as minimal when they do not exceed the risks posed by daily life activities or routine examinations. This study employed a conceptual and normative analysis, and use of an illustrative example. Different risks are composed of the same basic elements: Type, likelihood, and magnitude of harm. Hence, one can compare the risks of research and the risks of daily life by comparing the respective basic elements with each other. We use this insight to develop a systematic method, direct comparative analysis, for implementing the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk. The method offers a way of evaluating research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities, such as the risk of experiencing anxiety, stress, or other psychological harm. We thus illustrate how direct comparative analysis can be applied in practice by using it to evaluate whether the anxiety induced by a respiratory CO2 challenge poses minimal or greater than minimal risks in children and adolescents. Direct comparative analysis is a systematic method for applying the "risks of daily life" standard for minimal risk to research procedures that pose the same types of risk as daily life activities. It thereby offers a method to protect children and adolescents in research, while ensuring that important studies are not blocked because of unwarranted concerns about research risks.

Risk Analysis for Unintentional Slide Deployment During Airline Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayra, Eduardo S; Insua, David Ríos; Castellanos, María Eugenia; Larbi, Lydia

2015-09-01

We present a risk analysis undertaken to mitigate problems in relation to the unintended deployment of slides under normal operations within a commercial airline. This type of incident entails relevant costs for the airline industry. After assessing the likelihood and severity of its consequences, we conclude that such risks need to be managed. We then evaluate the effectiveness of various countermeasures, describing and justifying the chosen ones. We also discuss several issues faced when implementing and communicating the proposed measures, thus fully illustrating the risk analysis process. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mare Risk Analysis monitor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuente Prieto, I.; Alonso, P.; Carretero Fernandino, J. A.

2000-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Council's requirement that Spanish power plants comply with the requirements of the Maintenance Rule associated with plant risk assessment during power operation, arising from the partial unavailability of systems due to the maintenance activities, has led to need for additional tools to facilitate compliance with said requirements. While the impact on risk produced by individual equipment unavailabilities can easily be evaluated, either qualitatively or quantitatively, the process becomes more complicated when un programmed unavailabilities simultaneously occur in various systems, making it necessary to evaluate their functional impact. It is especially complex in the case of support systems that can affect the functionality of multiple systems. In view of the above, a computer application has been developed that is capable of providing the operator with quick answers based on the specific plant model in order to allow fast risk assessment using the information compiled as part of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis. The paper describes the most important characteristics of this application and the basic design requirements of the MARE Risk Monitor. (Author)

Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J.; Zhong, Jingbing; Lu, Yujie

2014-01-01

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, Tony

2010-01-01

Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

2013-01-01

During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

Analysis of risk factors and risk assessment for ischemic stroke recurrence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiu-ying LONG

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Objective To screen the risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke and to assess the risk of recurrence. Methods Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS was used to evaluate the risk of recurrence in 176 patients with ischemic stroke (96 cases of first onset and 80 cases of recurrence. Univariate and multivariate stepwise Logistic regression analysis was used to screen risk factors for recurrence of ischemic stroke.  Results There were significant differences between first onset group and recurrence group on age, the proportion of > 75 years old, hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, peripheral angiopathy, transient ischemic attack (TIA or ischemic stroke, drinking and ESRS score (P < 0.05, for all. First onset group included one case of ESRS 0 (1.04%, 8 cases of 1 (8.33%, 39 cases of 2 (40.63%, 44 cases of 3 (45.83%, 4 cases of 4 (4.17%. Recurrence group included 2 cases of ESRS 3 (2.50%, 20 cases of 4 (25% , 37 cases of 5 (46.25% , 18 cases of 6 (22.50% , 3 cases of 7 (3.75% . There was significant difference between 2 groups (Z = -11.376, P = 0.000. Logistic regression analysis showed ESRS > 3 score was independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke (OR = 31.324, 95%CI: 3.934-249.430; P = 0.001.  Conclusions ESRS > 3 score is the independent risk factor for recurrence of ischemic stroke. It is important to strengthen risk assessment of recurrence of ischemic stroke. To screen and control risk factors is the key to secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6731.2016.07.011

Risk analysis of industrial plants operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, Philippe

1989-12-01

This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results [fr

[Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

Science.gov (United States)

Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

2004-01-01

To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

Quantitative risk analysis of a space shuttle subsystem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frank, M.V.

1989-01-01

This paper reports that in an attempt to investigate methods for risk management other than qualitative analysis techniques, NASA has funded pilot study quantitative risk analyses for space shuttle subsystems. The authors performed one such study of two shuttle subsystems with McDonnell Douglas Astronautics Company. The subsystems were the auxiliary power units (APU) on the orbiter, and the hydraulic power units on the solid rocket booster. The technology and results of the APU study are presented in this paper. Drawing from a rich in-flight database as well as from a wealth of tests and analyses, the study quantitatively assessed the risk of APU-initiated scenarios on the shuttle during all phases of a flight mission. Damage states of interest were loss of crew/vehicle, aborted mission, and launch scrub. A quantitative risk analysis approach to deciding on important items for risk management was contrasted with the current NASA failure mode and effects analysis/critical item list approach

New algorithm for risk analysis in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, Antonio; Montes de Oca, Joe

2015-01-01

Risk analyses applied to radiotherapy treatments have become an undeniable necessity, considering the dangers generated by the combination of using powerful radiation fields on patients and the occurrence of human errors and equipment failures during these treatments. The technique par excellence to execute these analyses has been the risk matrix. This paper presents the development of a new algorithm to execute the task with wide graphic and analytic potentialities, thus transforming it into a very useful option for risk monitoring and the optimization of quality assurance. The system SECURE- MR, which is the basic software of this algorithm, has been successfully used in risk analysis regarding different kinds of radiotherapies. Compared to previous methods, It offers new possibilities of analysis considering risk controlling factors as the robustness of reducers of initiators frequency and its consequences. Their analytic capacities and graphs allow novel developments to classify risk contributing factors, to represent information processes as well as accidental sequences. The paper shows the application of the proposed system to a generic process of radiotherapy treatment using a lineal accelerator. (author)

Modeling issues in nuclear plant fire risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, N.

1989-01-01

This paper discusses various issues associated with current models for analyzing the risk due to fires in nuclear power plants. Particular emphasis is placed on the fire growth and suppression models, these being unique to the fire portion of the overall risk analysis. Potentially significant modeling improvements are identified; also discussed are a variety of modeling issues where improvements will help the credibility of the analysis, without necessarily changing the computed risk significantly. The mechanistic modeling of fire initiation is identified as a particularly promising improvement for reducing the uncertainties in the predicted risk. 17 refs., 5 figs. 2 tabs

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Network theory-based analysis of risk interactions in large engineering projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Chao; Marle, Franck; Zio, Enrico; Bocquet, Jean-Claude

2012-01-01

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project. - Highlights: ► The method addresses the modeling of complexity in project risk analysis. ► Network theory indicators enable other risks than classical criticality analysis to be highlighted. ► This topological analysis improves project manager's understanding of risks and risk interactions. ► This helps project manager to make decisions considering the position in the risk network. ► An application to a real tramway implementation project in a city is provided.

Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geffen, C.A.

1983-05-01

Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multivariate survival analysis and competing risks

CERN Document Server

Crowder, Martin J

2012-01-01

Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing Risks introduces univariate survival analysis and extends it to the multivariate case. It covers competing risks and counting processes and provides many real-world examples, exercises, and R code. The text discusses survival data, survival distributions, frailty models, parametric methods, multivariate data and distributions, copulas, continuous failure, parametric likelihood inference, and non- and semi-parametric methods. There are many books covering survival analysis, but very few that cover the multivariate case in any depth. Written for a graduate-level audience in statistics/biostatistics, this book includes practical exercises and R code for the examples. The author is renowned for his clear writing style, and this book continues that trend. It is an excellent reference for graduate students and researchers looking for grounding in this burgeoning field of research.

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

Air analysis in the assessment of fumonisin contamination risk in maize.

Science.gov (United States)

Torelli, Emanuela; Gubiani, Rino; Firrao, Giuseppe; Cividino, Sirio; Locci, Romano; Gobbi, Emanuela

2010-03-15

In maize-growing areas where fumonisin contamination is endemic, there is an urgent need for novel methods to assess the quality of grain lots before their delivery to common drying and storage collection centres. Aerobiological samples of fungal spores released during harvest were analysed to establish a relationship between fumonisin contamination and the abundance of pathogen propagules collected in the combine harvester using a cyclone and membrane filters. Filter-captured propagules were analysed by direct plating, immunoenzymatic assay of specific Fusarium extracellular polysaccharides and real time polymerase chain reaction of the extracted DNA using fum1, a gene involved in the biosynthesis of fumonisin, as a target. The results showed that time of harvest and environmental conditions strongly influenced the efficiency and performance of the collection system. The data obtained were informative in comparing individual samples collected under similar conditions. The immunoenzymatic assay provided the most reliable data, which improved the ability of a neural network to predict the fumonisin content of lots, when added to agronomic, environmental and phytosanitary data. This is the first attempt to evaluate the Fusarium propagules dispersed during harvesting as a predictive means to assess maize quality. A method based on cyclone/filter capture and immunological detection has been shown to be feasible and to have the potential for the development of a continuous monitoring system, but the prediction capabilities in the present implementation were limited.

Ontological Analysis of the Project Risk Management Concept ‘Risk’

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uzulāns Juris

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the current research series is to examine the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ and analyze the concepts used in the definitions of ‘risk’ in the sources of these definitions in order to perform the ontological analysis of the concept of ‘risk’. Ontological and epistemological analysis of the concepts in the definition of the concept ‘risk’ was used to answer the question what ‘risk’ means in project management. This investigation represents a part of the research series where the ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of project risk is performed with the aim to improve risk registers and risk management as a whole. In the previous studies the author analyzed the concept of ‘event’ that defines the content of the concept ‘risk’. The use of ‘event’ was analyzed in different sources to find out how the concept should be used. The ontological, epistemological and methodological analysis of the definitions of the concept ‘risk’ is the theoretical foundation for risk register creation because it is possible to create complete and understandable register for the participants of the project risk management process. The author believes that the conducted research helps establish confidence that ontological analysis is the method that together with the epistemological and methodological analysis provides opportunity to perform analysis of risk management sources aimed at improving risk management. The results of the study cannot be considered sufficient for deriving valid conclusions about project risk management and developing recommendations for improving risk management with regard to the content of the risk register. For valid conclusions and recommendations, a deeper research is needed which, first of all, would analyze a larger number of sources.

Risk analysis of alternative energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazmer, D.R.

1982-01-01

The author explores two points raised by Miller Spangler in a January 1981 issue: public perception of risks involving nuclear power plants relative to those of conventional plants and criteria for evaluating the way risk analyses are made. On the first point, he concludes that translating public attitudes into the experts' language of probability and risk could provide better information and understanding of both the attitudes and the risks. Viewing risk analysis methodologies as filters which help to test historical change, he suggests that the lack of information favors a lay jury approach for energy decisions. Spangler responds that Congress is an example of lay decision making, but that a lay jury, given public disinterest and polarization, would probably not improve social justice on the nuclear issue. 5 references, 4 figures

The watchdog role of risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reijen, G. van; Vinck, W.

1983-01-01

The reason why the risks of large-scale technology attract more attention lies in the fact that accidents would have more disastrous results and in the fact that it is probably more attractive to study the risks of some large projects than to do the same for a greater number of smaller projects. Within this presentation there will be some opening remarks on the Role of the Commission of the European Community with regard to accident prevention. The development of the concept of quantitative risks is dealt with. This development leads to a combinded of deterministic and probabilistic methods. The presentation concludes with some critical remarks on quantitative risk analysis and its use. (orig./HP) [de

The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that

Dietary patterns and depression risk: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Lv, Mei-Rong; Wei, Yan-Jin; Sun, Ling; Zhang, Ji-Xiang; Zhang, Huai-Guo; Li, Bin

2017-07-01

Although some studies have reported potential associations of dietary patterns with depression risk, a consistent perspective hasn't been estimated to date. Therefore, we conducted this meta-analysis to evaluate the relation between dietary patterns and the risk of depression. A literature research was conducted searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to September 2016. In total, 21 studies from ten countries met the inclusion criteria and were included in the present meta-analysis. A dietary pattern characterized by a high intakes of fruit, vegetables, whole grain, fish, olive oil, low-fat dairy and antioxidants and low intakes of animal foods was apparently associated with a decreased risk of depression. A dietary pattern characterized by a high consumption of red and/or processed meat, refined grains, sweets, high-fat dairy products, butter, potatoes and high-fat gravy, and low intakes of fruits and vegetables is associated with an increased risk of depression. The results of this meta-analysis suggest that healthy pattern may decrease the risk of depression, whereas western-style may increase the risk of depression. However, more randomized controlled trails and cohort studies are urgently required to confirm this findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Methodology for risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.; Gaertner, J.P.; Wagner, D.P.

1985-01-01

Part of the effort by EPRI to apply probabilistic risk assessment methods and results to the solution of utility problems involves the investigation of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specifications. The culmination of this investigation is the SOCRATES computer code developed by Battelle's Columbus Laboratories to assist in the evaluation of technical specifications of nuclear power plants. The program is designed to use information found in PRAs to re-evaluate risk for changes in component allowed outage times (AOTs) and surveillance test intervals (STIs). The SOCRATES program is a unique and important tool for technical specification evaluations. The detailed component unavailability model allows a detailed analysis of AOT and STI contributions to risk. Explicit equations allow fast and inexpensive calculations. Because the code is designed to accept ranges of parameters and to save results of calculations that do not change during the analysis, sensitivity studies are efficiently performed and results are clearly displayed

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Quantitative Risk Analysis: Method And Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anass BAYAGA

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Recent and past studies (King III report, 2009: 73-75; Stoney 2007;Committee of Sponsoring Organisation-COSO, 2004, Bartell, 2003; Liebenberg and Hoyt, 2003; Reason, 2000; Markowitz 1957 lament that although, the introduction of quantifying risk to enhance degree of objectivity in finance for instance was quite parallel to its development in the manufacturing industry, it is not the same in Higher Education Institution (HEI. In this regard, the objective of the paper was to demonstrate the methods and process of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA through likelihood of occurrence of risk (phase I. This paper serves as first of a two-phased study, which sampled hundred (100 risk analysts in a University in the greater Eastern Cape Province of South Africa.The analysis of likelihood of occurrence of risk by logistic regression and percentages were conducted to investigate whether there were a significant difference or not between groups (analyst in respect of QRA.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test was non-significant with a chi-square(X2 =8.181; p = 0.300, which indicated that there was a good model fit, since the data did not significantly deviate from the model. The study concluded that to derive an overall likelihood rating that indicated the probability that a potential risk may be exercised within the construct of an associated threat environment, the following governing factors must be considered: (1 threat source motivation and capability (2 nature of the vulnerability (3 existence and effectiveness of current controls (methods and process.

Risk Analysis for Performance Improvement in a Romanian Pharmaceutical Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dana Corina Deselnicu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper presents risk management analysis carried out to investigate the operations of a Romanian company dealing with the distribution of pharmaceutical products. The main risks challenging the company were identified, described and classified, providing a scientific base for further analysis. Then, the identified inherent risks were evaluated using tools as the risk index method and the risk matrix in order to emphasize their tolerance level. According to the results of the evaluation, risk mitigation strategies and measures were advanced for the management of the analysed risks. Relevant conclusions were drawn from the experience.

Risk analysis and reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uppuluri, V.R.R.

1979-01-01

Mathematical foundations of risk analysis are addressed. The importance of having the same probability space in order to compare different experiments is pointed out. Then the following topics are discussed: consequences as random variables with infinite expectations; the phenomenon of rare events; series-parallel systems and different kinds of randomness that could be imposed on such systems; and the problem of consensus of estimates of expert opinion

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

1995-01-01

An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

Applications of probabilistic risk analysis in nuclear criticality safety design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, J.K.

1992-01-01

Many documents have been prepared that try to define the scope of the criticality analysis and that suggest adding probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the deterministic safety analysis. The report of the US Department of Energy (DOE) AL 5481.1B suggested that an accident is credible if the occurrence probability is >1 x 10 -6 /yr. The draft DOE 5480 safety analysis report suggested that safety analyses should include the application of methods such as deterministic safety analysis, risk assessment, reliability engineering, common-cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and human factor safety analysis techniques. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) report NRC SG830.110 suggested that major safety analysis methods should include but not be limited to risk assessment, reliability engineering, and human factor safety analysis. All of these suggestions have recommended including PRA in the traditional criticality analysis

GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

1991-01-01

The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

APPROPRIATE ALLOCATION OF CONTINGENCY USING RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andi Andi

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Many cost overruns in the world of construction are attributable to either unforeseen events or foreseen events for which uncertainty was not appropriately accommodated. It is argued that a significant improvement to project management performance may result from greater attention to the process of analyzing project risks. The objective of this paper is to propose a risk analysis methodology for appropriate allocation of contingency in project cost estimation. In the first step, project risks will be identified. Influence diagramming technique is employed to identify and to show how the risks affect the project cost elements and also the relationships among the risks themselves. The second step is to assess the project costs with regards to the risks under consideration. Using a linguistic approach, the degree of uncertainty of identified project risks is assessed and quantified. The problem of dependency between risks is taken into consideration during this analysis. For the final step, as the main purpose of this paper, a method for allocating appropriate contingency is presented. Two types of contingencies, i.e. project contingency and management reserve are proposed to accommodate the risks. An illustrative example is presented at the end to show the application of the methodology.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

Science.gov (United States)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

The challenge of retarding erosion of island biodiversity through phytosanitary measures: An update on the case of Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Loope, Lloyd L.; Uchida, Janice Y.

2012-01-01

Most rust fungi are highly host specific, but Puccina psidii has an extremely broad host range within Myrtaceae and gained notoriety with a host jump in its native Brazil from common guava (Psidium guajava) to commercial Eucalyptus plantations. When detected in Hawaiʻi in April 2005, the first invasion outside the neotropics/subtropics, there was immediate concern for ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha). ʻŌhiʻa composes 80% of native forest statewide, providing stable watersheds and habitat for most Hawaiian forest birds and plants. Within months, rust spores spread statewide on wind currents, but ʻōhiʻa was found to be only a minor host, showing very light damage. The primary host was nonnative rose apple (Syzygium jambos), severely affected at a landscape scale, but the epiphytotic subsided as rose apple was largely defoliated or killed within several years. The limited and stable host range in Hawaiʻi (versus elsewhere) led the local conservation community to explore possibilities for excluding new genetic strains of P. psidii. Although national/international phytosanitary standards require strong scientific justification for regulations involving an infraspecific taxonomic level, hopes were buoyed when genetic studies showed no apparent genetic variation/evolution in Hawaiʻi's rust strain. A sophisticated genetic study of P. psidii in its home range is near completion; genetic variation is substantial, and host species strongly influences rust population structure. To prevent introduction of new strains, the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture is moving ahead with establishing stringent measures that restrict entry of Myrtaceae into Hawaiʻi. Meanwhile, P. psidii poses a major threat to Myrtaceae biodiversity worldwide.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

The application of CFD to hydrogen risk analysis in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Hui; Han Xu; Chang Meng; Wang Xiaofeng; Wang Shuguo; Lu Xinhua; Wu Lin

2013-01-01

Status of the hydrogen risk analysis method is systemically summarized in this paper and the advantages and limits of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamic) in hydrogen risk analysis is discussed. The international experimental programs on the CFD hydrogen risk analysis are introduced in this paper. The application of CFD to nuclear power plant (NPP) hydrogen risk analysis is introduced in detail by taking EPR and Ling'ao NPP for example. In these bases, the CFD development prospect of hydrogen risk analysis is also summarized in this paper. (authors)

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

Chemical risk evaluation, importance of the risk analysis framework uses: Latin America development restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carrillo, M.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation is about reach and results of the risk analysis in Venezuela, chemical dangers in food, human damage, injuries , technologies news in fodd development, toxicity, microbiological risk, technical recommendations

Spent fuel pool risk analysis for the Dukovany NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hust' ak, S.; Jaros, M.; Kubicek, J. [UJV Rez, a.s., Husinec-Rez (Czech Republic)

2013-07-01

UJV Rez, a.s. maintains a Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (Living PSA) program for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. This project has been established as a framework for activities related to risk assessment and to support for risk-informed decision making at this plant. The most extensively used PSA application at Dukovany NPP is risk monitoring of instantaneous (point-in-time) risk during plant operation, especially for the purpose of configuration risk management during plant scheduled outages to avoid risk significant configurations. The scope of PSA for Dukovany NPP includes also determination of a risk contribution from spent fuel pool (SFP) operation to provide recommendations for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents and to be applicable for configuration risk management. This paper describes the analysis of internal initiating events (IEs) in PSA for Dukovany NPP, which can contribute to the risk from SFP operation. The analysis of those IEs was done more thoroughly in the PSA for Dukovany NPP in order to be used in instantaneous risk monitoring. (orig.)

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

2015-01-22

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

2015-01-01

The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

Risk analysis for decision support in electricity distribution system asset management: methods and frameworks for analysing intangible risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nordgaard, Dag Eirik

2010-04-15

During the last 10 to 15 years electricity distribution companies throughout the world have been ever more focused on asset management as the guiding principle for their activities. Within asset management, risk is a key issue for distribution companies, together with handling of cost and performance. There is now an increased awareness of the need to include risk analyses into the companies' decision making processes. Much of the work on risk in electricity distribution systems has focused on aspects of reliability. This is understandable, since it is surely an important feature of the product delivered by the electricity distribution infrastructure, and it is high on the agenda for regulatory authorities in many countries. However, electricity distribution companies are also concerned with other risks relevant for their decision making. This typically involves intangible risks, such as safety, environmental impacts and company reputation. In contrast to the numerous methodologies developed for reliability risk analysis, there are relatively few applications of structured analyses to support decisions concerning intangible risks, even though they represent an important motivation for decisions taken in electricity distribution companies. The overall objective of this PhD work has been to explore risk analysis methods that can be used to improve and support decision making in electricity distribution system asset management, with an emphasis on the analysis of intangible risks. The main contributions of this thesis can be summarised as: An exploration and testing of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods to support decisions concerning intangible risks; The development of a procedure for using life curve models to provide input to QRA models; The development of a framework for risk-informed decision making where QRA are used to analyse selected problems; In addition, the results contribute to clarify the basic concepts of risk, and highlight challenges

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yu-Liang; Shu, Long; Zheng, Pei-Fen; Zhang, Xiao-Yan; Si, Cai-Juan; Yu, Xiao-Long; Gao, Wei; Zhang, Lun

2017-05-01

The analysis of dietary patterns has recently drawn considerable attention as a method of investigating the association between the overall whole diet and the risk of colorectal cancer. However, the results have yielded conflicting findings. Here, we carried out a meta-analysis to identify the association between dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancer. A total of 40 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in this meta-analysis. The highest category of 'healthy' dietary pattern compared with the lowest category was apparently associated with a decreased risk for colorectal cancer [odds ratio (OR)=0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.83; Pcolorectal cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest category of a 'western-style' dietary pattern (OR=1.40; CI: 1.26-1.56; Pcolorectal cancer in the highest compared with the lowest category of 'alcohol-consumption' pattern (OR=1.44; CI: 1.13-1.82; P=0.003). The results of this meta-analysis indicate that a 'healthy' dietary pattern may decrease the risk of colorectal cancer, whereas 'western-style' and 'alcohol-consumption' patterns may increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Economic impact assessment of invasive plant pests in the European Union

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soliman, T.A.A.

2012-01-01

According to the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS Agreement) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), phytosanitary measures should be economically justifiable. The economic impact assessments within a

Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

2018-02-01

The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2015-04-01

A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Peduzzi, Pascal

2017-04-01

Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

Science.gov (United States)

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

2013-10-01

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Final disposition of the Rocky Flats Plant materials and contaminants requires consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates. These postulated options or endstates can be various remedial alternatives, or future endstate uses of federal agency land. Currently, there does not exist any approved methodology that aggregates various incremental risk estimates. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges

Evaluating the incorporation of heavy metals to agroecosystem. Role of the productive practices executed by agricultural workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Cespedes, Damarys; Santana Romero, Jorge Luis; Olivares Rieumont, Susana

2012-01-01

Health risks associated to practical activities in farm and agriculture are increasing all over the world. These risks are depending from technology and chemicals substances abuse. Urban agriculture specifically constitutes a challenge for producers and researchers. Agricultural food production, held inside of the cities, looking for sustainable productions is developed in risky scenarios where it is possible to found environmental pollutants such as heavy metals. Environmental pollutants may to contaminate humans throughout different pathways. The analysis of factors related to agricultural working strategies of urban farm workers, the precedent knowledgement about production places and analytical data related to composition and properties of these sites, are significant criteria for proper management of ecosystems. Qualitative analysis research tool such as expert group criteria is a suitable method for field research in this area. It was determined that the precedent use of soil, the use of fertilizers and phytosanitary products are key elements to be taken into account for successful management of agroecosystems and for health risk prevention related to the possible influence of heavy metals in farm practice

Source modelling in seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yucemen, M.S.

1978-12-01

The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consistent method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. The potential earthquake activity zones are idealized as point, line or area sources. For these seismic source types, expressions to evaluate their contribution to seismic risk are derived, considering all the possible site-source configurations. The seismic risk at a site is found to depend not only on the inherent randomness of the earthquake occurrences with respect to magnitude, time and space, but also on the uncertainties associated with the predicted values of the seismic and geometric parameters, as well as the uncertainty in the attenuation model. The uncertainty due to the attenuation equation is incorporated into the analysis through the use of random correction factors. The influence of the uncertainty resulting from the insufficient information on the seismic parameters and source geometry is introduced into the analysis by computing a mean risk curve averaged over the various alternative assumptions on the parameters and source geometry. Seismic risk analysis is carried for the city of Denizli, which is located in the seismically most active zone of Turkey. The second analysis is for Akkuyu

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

2011-01-01

the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

Multi-Disaster Risk Analysis of Klaten Regency, Central Java, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Candra Dian Lukita Tauhid

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Klaten Regency is located in Central Java Province, Indonesia, ranked as 19th most susceptible area in Indonesia. Among of many disasters those take place in Klaten are floods, landslides, and earthquake, which cause damages and loss of lives. Unfortunately, some areas in Klaten Regency are also very vulnerable to the disasters that often contribute severe damage and loss. This paper presents result of risk analysis due to floods, landslides and earthquake disaster at Klaten Regency. Several parameters or criteria are utilized to describe the level of the disaster intensities. The flood susceptibility parameters are the Topographic Wet Index (TWI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, permeability and roughness, as proposed by Kafira, et al. (2015. The landslide susceptibility are the geology, slope, elevation, distance from fault, distance from rivers, rainfall and land use, as suggested by Thearith (2009 whereas the earthquake susceptibility was referred to FEMA P-154 by using the Ss and S1. The vulnerability and risk analysis are carried out by referring to the parameters as stipulated by the Chief Regulation of the National Board of Disaster Management No.2 Year 2012 (Perka Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana- BNPB, concerning the parameters being used for the vulnerability analysis, i.e. population density, poverty ratio, land use, and level of Gross Regional Domestic Product. Further spatial analysis of the risk performs the multi-disaster risk map as a combination between the floods, landslides and earthquake disaster risk in Klaten Regency. The established multi-disaster risk map shows the risk level in the Klaten Regency, i.e., 16.31% at very low risk, 33.01% at low risk, 34.49% at medium risk, at 14.22% high risk and 1.97% at very high risk.

Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

2008-01-01

The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

1997-01-01

This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations

Risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koelzer, W.

1983-01-01

The German risk analysis program for nuclear power plants aiming at the man and the environment is presented. An accident consequence model to calculate the radiological impact and the potential health effects is described. (E.G.) [pt

Risk factors for radiation-induced hypothyroidism: A Literature-Based Meta-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogelius, Ivan R; Bentzen, Søren; Maraldo, Maja V

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: A systematic overview and meta-analysis of studies reporting data on hypothyroidism (HT) after radiation therapy was conducted to identify risk factors for development of HT. METHODS: Published studies were identified from the PubMed and Embase databases and by hand-searching published...... reviews. Studies allowing the extraction of odds ratios (OR) for HT in 1 or more of several candidate clinical risk groups were included. A meta-analysis of the OR for development of HT with or without each of the candidate risk factors was performed. Furthermore, studies allowing the extraction......% risk of HT at a dose of 45 Gy but with considerable variation in the dose response between studies. Chemotherapy and age were not associated with risk of HT in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors for HT were identified. The risk of HT increases with increasing radiation dose...

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.

1988-08-01

In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented

Failure mode effect analysis and fault tree analysis as a combined methodology in risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Wessiani, N. A.; Yoshio, F.

2018-04-01

There have been many studies reported the implementation of Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) as a method in risk management. However, most of the studies usually only choose one of these two methods in their risk management methodology. On the other side, combining these two methods will reduce the drawbacks of each methods when implemented separately. This paper aims to combine the methodology of FMEA and FTA in assessing risk. A case study in the metal company will illustrate how this methodology can be implemented. In the case study, this combined methodology will assess the internal risks that occur in the production process. Further, those internal risks should be mitigated based on their level of risks.

Meta-analysis: Risk of dry mouth with second generation antidepressants.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappetta, Kiley; Beyer, Chad; Johnson, Jessica A; Bloch, Michael H

2018-06-08

The goal of this meta-analysis was to quantify the risk of dry mouth associated with commonly prescribed antidepressant agents and examine the potential implications of medication class, dose, and pharmacodynamics and dose on risk of treatment-induced dry mouth. A PubMed search was conducted to identify double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials examining the efficacy and tolerability of second generation antidepressant medications for adults with depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, and OCD. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to quantify the pooled risk ratio of treatment-emergent dry mouth with second generation antidepressants compared to placebo. Stratified subgroup analysis and meta-regression was utilized to further examine the effects antidepressant agent, class, dosage, indication, and receptor affinity profile on the measured risk of dry mouth. 99 trials involving 20,868 adults. SNRIs (Relative Risk (RR)=2.24, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.95-2.58, z=11.2, pz=5.8, pz=10.32, pz=5.85, pz=3.26, p=0.001) and Alpha-2 (PE=0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-0.75, z=3.64, pz=2.10, p<0.05) was significantly associated with increased risk of dry mouth. The current meta-analysis suggests that SSRIs, SNRIs, and atypical antidepressants are all associated with varying degrees of increased risk of dry mouth. SNRIs were associated with a significantly greater risk of dry mouth compared to SSRIs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

RISK ANALYSIS IN MILK PROCESSING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. PIRVUTOIU

2008-05-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed to evaluate Risk bankruptcy using “Score Method” based on Canon and Holder’s Model. The data were collected from the Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the period 2005-2007, recorded by a Meat processing Plant (Rador Commercial Company .The study has put in evidence the financial situation of the company,the level of the main financial ratios fundamenting the calculation of Z score function value in the three years The low values of Z score function recorded every year reflects that the company is still facing backruptcy. However , the worst situation was recorded in the years 2005 and 2006, when baknruptcy risk was ranging between 70 – 80 % . In the year 2007, the risk bankruptcy was lower, ranging between 50-70 % , as Z function recorded a value lower than 4 .For Meat processing companies such an analysis is compulsory at present as long as business environment is very risky in our country.

76 FR 67379 - Importation of Dracaena Plants From Costa Rica

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-01

.... Packing facilities would also have to be free of sand, soil, earth, and plants pests, and phytosanitary..., Quarantine, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Rice, Vegetables. Accordingly, we propose to amend 7..., soil, earth, and plant pests, and phytosanitary practices adequate to exclude pests must be employed...

Quantitative risk analysis preoperational of gas pipeline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manfredi, Carlos; Bispo, Gustavo G.; Esteves, Alvaro [Gie S.A., Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this analysis is to predict how it can be affected the individual risk and the public's general security due to the operation of a gas pipeline. In case that the single or social risks are considered intolerable, compared with the international standards, to be recommended measures of mitigation of the risk associated to the operation until levels that can be considered compatible with the best practices in the industry. The quantitative risk analysis calculates the probability of occurrence of an event based on the frequency of occurrence of the same one and it requires a complex mathematical treatment. The present work has as objective to develop a calculation methodology based on the previously mentioned publication. This calculation methodology is centered in defining the frequencies of occurrence of events, according to representative database of each case in study. Besides, it settles down the consequences particularly according to the considerations of each area and the different possibilities of interferences with the gas pipeline in study. For each one of the interferences a typical curve of ignition probabilities is developed in function from the distance to the pipe. (author)

Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures A Guideline for Analysis

CERN Document Server

Utne, Ingrid; Vatn, Jørn

2012-01-01

Today’s society is completely dependent on critical networks such as  water supply, sewage, electricity, ICT and transportation. Risk and vulnerability analyses are needed to grasp the impact of threats and hazards. However, these become quite complex as there are strong interdependencies both within and between infrastructure systems. Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides methods for analyzing risks and interdependencies of critical infrastructures.  A number of analysis approaches are described and are adapted to each of these infrastructures. Various approaches are also revised, and all are supported by several examples and illustrations. Particular emphasis is given to the analysis of various interdependencies that often exist between the infrastructures.  Risk and Interdependencies in Critical Infrastructures: A  guideline for analysis provides a good tool to identify the hazards that are threatening your infrastructures, and will enhance the un...

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraass, B.

2016-01-01

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

WE-B-BRC-02: Risk Analysis and Incident Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fraass, B. [Cedars Sinai Medical Center (United States)

2016-06-15

Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

Analysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Dandage, Rahul V.; Mantha, Shankar S.; Rane, Santosh B.; Bhoola, Vanita

2018-03-01

In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success of project management is oftentimes based on the understanding of barriers to effective risk management, application of appropriate risk management methodology, proactive leadership to avoid barriers, workers' attitude, adequate resources, organizational culture, and involvement of top management. This paper represents various risk categories and barriers to risk management in domestic and international projects through literature survey and feedback from project professionals. After analysing the various modelling methods used in project risk management literature, interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis have been used to analyse interactions among the barriers and prioritize them. The analysis indicates that lack of top management support, lack of formal training, and lack of addressing cultural differences are the high priority barriers, among many others.

Risk analysis for earth dam overtopping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mo Chongxun

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10−6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.

Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Muns (Sander)

2016-01-01

markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

Quantitative risk analysis as a basis for emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yogui, Regiane Tiemi Teruya [Bureau Veritas do Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Macedo, Eduardo Soares de [Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnologicas (IPT), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Several environmental accidents happened in Brazil and in the world during the 70's and 80's. This strongly motivated the preparation for emergencies in the chemical and petrochemical industries. Environmental accidents affect the environment and the communities that are neighbor to the industrial facilities. The present study aims at subsidizing and providing orientation to develop Emergency Planning from the data obtained on Quantitative Risk Analysis, elaborated according to the Technical Standard P4.261/03 from CETESB (Sao Paulo Environmental Agency). It was observed, during the development of the research, that the data generated on these studies need a complementation and a deeper analysis, so that it is possible to use them on the Emergency Plans. The main issues that were analyzed and discussed on this study were the reevaluation of hazard identification for the emergency plans, the consequences and vulnerability analysis for the response planning, the risk communication, and the preparation to respond to the emergencies of the communities exposed to manageable risks. As a result, the study intends to improve the interpretation and use of the data deriving from the Quantitative Risk Analysis to develop the emergency plans. (author)

Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wingender, H.J.

1978-01-01

Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

Risk analysis tools for force protection and infrastructure/asset protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, C.D.; Duggan, R.A.; Paulus, W.K.

1998-01-01

The Security Systems and Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories has for many years been involved in the development and use of vulnerability assessment and risk analysis tools. In particular, two of these tools, ASSESS and JTS, have been used extensively for Department of Energy facilities. Increasingly, Sandia has been called upon to evaluate critical assets and infrastructures, support DoD force protection activities and assist in the protection of facilities from terrorist attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Sandia is involved in many different activities related to security and force protection and is expanding its capabilities by developing new risk analysis tools to support a variety of users. One tool, in the very early stages of development, is EnSURE, Engineered Surety Using the Risk Equation. EnSURE addresses all of the risk equation and integrates the many components into a single, tool-supported process to help determine the most cost-effective ways to reduce risk. This paper will briefly discuss some of these risk analysis tools within the EnSURE framework

Operational Risk Management A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Kenett, Ron

2010-01-01

The book will introduce modern Operational Risk (OpR) Management and illustrates the various sources of OpR assessment and OpR mitigation. This book discusses how various data sources can be integrated and analyzed and how OpR is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Internationalization. The topics will include state of the art technology such as semantic analysis, ontology engineering, data mining and statistical analysis.

Intentional risk management through complex networks analysis

CERN Document Server

Chapela, Victor; Moral, Santiago; Romance, Miguel

2015-01-01

This book combines game theory and complex networks to examine intentional technological risk through modeling. As information security risks are in constant evolution,  the methodologies and tools to manage them must evolve to an ever-changing environment. A formal global methodology is explained  in this book, which is able to analyze risks in cyber security based on complex network models and ideas extracted from the Nash equilibrium. A risk management methodology for IT critical infrastructures is introduced which provides guidance and analysis on decision making models and real situations. This model manages the risk of succumbing to a digital attack and assesses an attack from the following three variables: income obtained, expense needed to carry out an attack, and the potential consequences for an attack. Graduate students and researchers interested in cyber security, complex network applications and intentional risk will find this book useful as it is filled with a number of models, methodologies a...

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

Analysis of human error and organizational deficiency in events considering risk significance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Suk; Kim, Yoonik; Kim, Say Hyung; Kim, Chansoo; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jung, Won Dea

2004-01-01

In this study, we analyzed human and organizational deficiencies in the trip events of Korean nuclear power plants. K-HPES items were used in human error analysis, and the organizational factors by Jacobs and Haber were used for organizational deficiency analysis. We proposed the use of CCDP as a risk measure to consider risk information in prioritizing K-HPES items and organizational factors. Until now, the risk significance of events has not been considered in human error and organizational deficiency analysis. Considering the risk significance of events in the process of analysis is necessary for effective enhancement of nuclear power plant safety by focusing on causes of human error and organizational deficiencies that are associated with significant risk

Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunyazova A.O.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

Cable Hot Shorts and Circuit Analysis in Fire Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaChance, Jeffrey; Nowlen, Steven P.; Wyant, Frank

1999-01-01

Under existing methods of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the analysis of fire-induced circuit faults has typically been conducted on a simplistic basis. In particular, those hot-short methodologies that have been applied remain controversial in regards to the scope of the assessments, the underlying methods, and the assumptions employed. To address weaknesses in fire PRA methodologies, the USNRC has initiated a fire risk analysis research program that includes a task for improving the tools for performing circuit analysis. The objective of this task is to obtain a better understanding of the mechanisms linking fire-induced cable damage to potentially risk-significant failure modes of power, control, and instrumentation cables. This paper discusses the current status of the circuit analysis task

Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

OpenAIRE

Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

2013-01-01

In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

2009-01-01

Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

A risk-informed perspective on deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, P.T.

2009-01-01

In this work, the deterministic safety analysis (DSA) approach to nuclear safety is examined from a risk-informed perspective. One objective of safety analysis of a nuclear power plant is to demonstrate via analysis that the risks to the public from events or accidents that are within the design basis of the power plant are within acceptable levels with a high degree of assurance. This nuclear safety analysis objective can be translated into two requirements on the risk estimates of design basis events or accidents: the nominal risk estimate to the public must be shown to be within acceptable levels, and the uncertainty in the risk estimates must be shown to be small on an absolute or relative basis. The DSA approach combined with the defense-in-depth (DID) principle is a simplified safety analysis approach that attempts to achieve the above safety analysis objective in the face of potentially large uncertainties in the risk estimates of a nuclear power plant by treating the various uncertainty contributors using a stylized conservative binary (yes-no) approach, and applying multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels to protect against the release of radioactivity from the reactor. It is shown that by focusing on the consequence aspect of risk, the previous two nuclear safety analysis requirements on risk can be satisfied with the DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety. It is also shown the use of multiple overlapping physical barriers and defense levels in the traditional DSA-DID approach to nuclear safety is risk-informed in the sense that it provides a consistently high level of confidence in the validity of the safety analysis results for various design basis events or accidents with a wide range of frequency of occurrence. It is hoped that by providing a linkage between the consequence analysis approach in DSA with a risk-informed perspective, greater understanding of the limitation and capability of the DSA approach is obtained. (author)

Risk factor analysis of equine strongyle resistance to anthelmintics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Sallé

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Intestinal strongyles are the most problematic endoparasites of equids as a result of their wide distribution and the spread of resistant isolates throughout the world. While abundant literature can be found on the extent of anthelmintic resistance across continents, empirical knowledge about associated risk factors is missing. This study brought together results from anthelmintic efficacy testing and risk factor analysis to provide evidence-based guidelines in the field. It involved 688 horses from 39 French horse farms and riding schools to both estimate Faecal Egg Count Reduction (FECR after anthelmintic treatment and to interview farm and riding school managers about their practices. Risk factors associated with reduced anthelmintic efficacy in equine strongyles were estimated across drugs using a marginal modelling approach. Results demonstrated ivermectin efficacy (96.3% ± 14.5% FECR, the inefficacy of fenbendazole (42.8% ± 33.4% FECR and an intermediate profile for pyrantel (90.3% ± 19.6% FECR. Risk factor analysis provided support to advocate for FEC-based treatment regimens combined with individual anthelmintic dosage and the enforcement of tighter biosecurity around horse introduction. The combination of these measures resulted in a decreased risk of drug resistance (relative risk of 0.57, p = 0.02. Premises falling under this typology also relied more on their veterinarians suggesting practitionners play an important role in the sustainability of anthelmintic usage. Similarly, drug resistance risk was halved in premises with frequent pasture rotation and with stocking rate below five horses/ha (relative risk of 0.53, p < 0.01. This is the first empirical risk factor analysis for anthelmintic resistance in equids. Our findings should guide the implementation of more sustained strongyle management in the field. Keywords: Horse, Nematode, Anthelmintic resistance, Strongyle, Cyathostomin

Stress Analysis in Managing the Region’s Budget Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR, was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.

Explaining HIV Risk Multiplexity: A Social Network Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Felsher, Marisa; Koku, Emmanuel

2018-04-21

Risk multiplexity (i.e., overlap in drug-use, needle exchange and sexual relations) is a known risk factor for HIV. However, little is known about predictors of multiplexity. This study uses egocentric data from the Colorado Springs study to examine how individual, behavioral and social network factors influence engagement in multiplex risk behavior. Analyses revealed that compared to Whites, Hispanics were significantly more likely to engage in risk multiplexity and Blacks less so. Respondents who were similar to each other (e.g., in terms of race) had significantly higher odds of being in risk multiplex relationships, and respondents' risk perceptions and network size were significantly associated with engaging in multiplex risk behaviors. Findings from interaction analysis showed the effect of knowing someone with HIV on the odds of multiplexity depends partly on whether respondents' know their HIV status. Findings suggest that demographics, HIV behaviors and network factors impact engagement in multiplex risk behaviors, highlighting the need for multi-level interventions aimed at reducing HIV risk behavior.

Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2012-01-01

Accident probability estimation is a common and central step to all quantitative risk assessment methods. Among many techniques available, bow-tie model (BT) is very popular because it represent the accident scenario altogether including causes and consequences. However, it suffers a static structure limiting its application in real-time monitoring and probability updating which are key factors in dynamic risk analysis. The present work is focused on using BT approach in a dynamic environment in which the occurrence probability of accident consequences changes. In this method, on one hand, failure probability of primary events of BT, leading to the top event, are developed using physical reliability models, and constantly revised as physical parameters (e.g., pressure, velocity, dimension, etc) change. And, on the other hand, the failure probability of safety barriers of the BT are periodically updated using Bayes’ theorem as new information becomes available over time. Finally, the resulting, updated BT is used to estimate the posterior probability of the consequences which in turn results in an updated risk profile. - Highlights: ► A methodology is proposed to make bow-tie method adapted for dynamic risk analysis. ► Physical reliability models are used to revise the top event. ► Bayes’ theorem is used to update the probability of safety barriers. ► The number of accidents in sequential time intervals is used to form likelihood function. ► The risk profile is updated for varying physical parameters and for different times.

Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Foroogh Ghasemi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.

The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: Recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, George; Lukka, Himu; Warde, Padraig; Brundage, Michael; Souhami, Luis; Crook, Juanita; Cury, Fabio; Catton, Charles; Mok, Gary; Martin, Andre-Guy; Vigneault, Eric; Morris, Jim; Warner, Andrew; Gonzalez Maldonado, Sandra; Pickles, Tom

2013-01-01

Background: The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema. Methods: The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively. Results: The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30). Conclusions: Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database

THE ANALYSIS OF RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS WITHIN MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ROMANESCU MARCEL LAURENTIU

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the risk analysis within management, focusing on how a company could practicaly integrate the risks management in the existing leading process. Subsequently, it is exemplified the way of manage risk effectively, which gives numerous advantages to all firms, including improving their decision-making process. All these lead to the conclusion that the degree of risk specific to companies is very high, but if managers make the best decisions then it can diminish it and all business activitiy and its income are not influenced by factors that could disturb in a negative way .

Use-related risk analysis for medical devices based on improved FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Long; Shuai, Ma; Wang, Zhu; Li, Ping

2012-01-01

In order to effectively analyze and control use-related risk of medical devices, quantitative methodologies must be applied. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a proactive technique for error detection and risk reduction. In this article, an improved FMEA based on Fuzzy Mathematics and Grey Relational Theory is developed to better carry out user-related risk analysis for medical devices. As an example, the analysis process using this improved FMEA method for a certain medical device (C-arm X-ray machine) is described.

Synthesis of Enterprise and Value-Based Methods for Multiattribute Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenley, C. Robert; Collins, John W.; Beck, John M.; Heydt, Harold J.; Garcia, Chad B.

2001-01-01

This paper describes a method for performing multiattribute decision analysis to prioritize ap-proaches to handling risks during the development and operation of complex socio-technical systems. The method combines risk categorization based on enterprise views, risk prioritization of the categories based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and more standard probability-consequence ratings schemes. We also apply value-based testing me-thods used in software development to prioritize risk-handling approaches. We describe a tool that synthesizes the methods and performs a multiattribute analysis of the technical and pro-grammatic risks on the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) enterprise.

Risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Correa Lizarazu, X.

2013-01-01

The power point presentation Colombia risk evaluation experiences, sanitarian regulations evolution, chemical dangers food, biological dangers food, codex alimentarius, trade, industrial effects, dangers identification, data collection and risk profile

The approach to risk analysis in three industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1991-01-01

It is the purpose of this paper to review how risk and safety analysis is performed in the three major industries of nuclear power, space flight, and chemical and petroleum processes. The underlying reason for such a review is the belief that efficiencies and safety enhancements may result from a greater exchange of risk assessment technology between these industries. The thrust of this discussion related to the engineered systems involved in the three industries. The industries are very different. The chemical industry epitomizes the highly competitive private sector and its bottom-line emphasis; the nuclear power industry is unique by the degree to which it is regulated; and the space industry is essentially a government business just beginning to have commercial implications. Institutional differences are extreme; however, from a societal needs, and their safety implications have a far reaching impact on public opinion and support. In reviewing the risk and safety analysis activities, particular attention is given to the use of such quantitative approaches as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as it has evolved in the nuclear power industry

Risk analysis and priority setting for environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1991-01-01

There is a growing realization that the demand for funding to correct our nation's environmental problems will soon outstrip available resources. In the hazardous waste area alone, the estimated cost of remediating Superfund sites ranges from $32 billion to $80 billion. Numerous other areas of competing for these same financial resources. These include ozone depletion, global warming, the protection of endangered species and wetlands, toxic air pollution, carcinogenic pesticides, and urban smog. In response to this imbalance in the supply and demand for national funds, several political constituencies are calling for the use of risk assessment as a tool in the prioritization of research and budget needs. Comparative risk analysis offers a logical framework in which to organize information about complex environmental problems. Risk analysis allows policy analysts to make resource allocation decisions on the basis of scientific judgement rather than political expediency

Farmer awareness, coping mechanisms and economic implications ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ACSS

weeding (81.5%), chemical spraying mainly using Bordeaux mixture (20.8%), phyto-sanitary methods (8.1%), concoctions (10.4%), ... The use of concoctions and phyto-sanitary methods significantly (P < 0.01) reduced the impact of the disease on annual ..... Thus, extension and/or research agents are urged to promote and ...

Food and environmental protection newsletter. Vol. 4, No. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-07-01

In this issue of the newsletter forthcoming research coordination meetings and international workshops on sample processing for analysis of food contaminants, including mycotoxins, bacterial pathogens, as well as irradiation as phytosanitary treatment of food and agricultural commodities were announced. Past meetings and training events are also reported.

Food and environmental protection newsletter. Vol. 4, No. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-07-01

In this issue of the newsletter forthcoming research coordination meetings and international workshops on sample processing for analysis of food contaminants, including mycotoxins, bacterial pathogens, as well as irradiation as phytosanitary treatment of food and agricultural commodities were announced. Past meetings and training events are also reported

Body mass index and risk of BPH: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S; Mao, Q; Lin, Y; Wu, J; Wang, X; Zheng, X; Xie, L

2012-09-01

Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting results relating obesity to BPH. A meta-analysis of cohort and case-control studies was conducted to pool the risk estimates of the association between obesity and BPH. Eligible studies were retrieved by both computer searches and review of references. We analyzed abstracted data with random effects models to obtain the summary risk estimates. Dose-response meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting categorical risk estimates for a series of exposure levels. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria of the meta-analysis. Positive association with body mass index (BMI) was observed in BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) combined group (odds ratio=1.27, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.53). In subgroup analysis, BMI exhibited a positive dose-response relationship with BPH/LUTS in population-based case-control studies and a marginal positive association was observed between risk of BPH and increased BMI. However, no association between BPH/LUTS and BMI was observed in other subgroups stratified by study design, geographical region or primary outcome. The overall current literatures suggested that BMI was associated with increased risk of BPH. Further efforts should be made to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying biological mechanisms.

Adversarial risk analysis with incomplete information: a level-k approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothschild, Casey; McLay, Laura; Guikema, Seth

2012-07-01

This article proposes, develops, and illustrates the application of level-k game theory to adversarial risk analysis. Level-k reasoning, which assumes that players play strategically but have bounded rationality, is useful for operationalizing a Bayesian approach to adversarial risk analysis. It can be applied in a broad class of settings, including settings with asynchronous play and partial but incomplete revelation of early moves. Its computational and elicitation requirements are modest. We illustrate the approach with an application to a simple defend-attack model in which the defender's countermeasures are revealed with a probability less than one to the attacker before he decides on how or whether to attack. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Structural reliability analysis applied to pipeline risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gardiner, M. [GL Industrial Services, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F.; Donato, Guilherme V.P. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of pipelines requires two main components to be provided. These are models of the consequences that follow from some loss of containment incident, and models for the likelihood of such incidents occurring. This paper describes how PETROBRAS have used Structural Reliability Analysis for the second of these, to provide pipeline- and location-specific predictions of failure frequency for a number of pipeline assets. This paper presents an approach to estimating failure rates for liquid and gas pipelines, using Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) to analyze the credible basic mechanisms of failure such as corrosion and mechanical damage. SRA is a probabilistic limit state method: for a given failure mechanism it quantifies the uncertainty in parameters to mathematical models of the load-resistance state of a structure and then evaluates the probability of load exceeding resistance. SRA can be used to benefit the pipeline risk management process by optimizing in-line inspection schedules, and as part of the design process for new construction in pipeline rights of way that already contain multiple lines. A case study is presented to show how the SRA approach has recently been used on PETROBRAS pipelines and the benefits obtained from it. (author)

Dealing with phenomenological uncertainty in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theofanous, T.G.

1994-01-01

The Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) is summarized and developed further towards a formal definition. The key ideas behind the methodology and these more formal aspects are also presented and discussed

Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

2011-01-01

.... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

Approach for seismic risk analysis for CANDU plants in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, B-S; Kim, T; Kang, S-K [Korea Power Engineering Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S-Y; Roh, S-R [Korea Electric Power Corp., Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Centre

1996-12-31

A seismic risk analysis for CANDU type plants has never been performed. The study presented here suggested that the approach generally applied to LWR type plants could lead to unacceptable result, if directly applied to CANDU plants. This paper presents a modified approach for the seismic risk analysis of CANDU plants. (author). 5 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Schmidt

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

The role of veterinary epidemiology and veterinary services in complying with the World Trade Organization SPS agreement.

Science.gov (United States)

Zepeda, C; Salman, M; Thiermann, A; Kellar, J; Rojas, H; Willeberg, P

2005-02-01

The agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS agreement) was one of the major products of the GATT's Uruguay round of multilateral trade negotiations, signed in Marrakesh on 15 April 1994. This agreement and others are part of the treaty that established the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO superseded the GATT as the umbrella organization for international trade (WTO, 1998a). The SPS agreement's main intent is to provide guidelines and provisions to member countries to facilitate trade while taking measures to protect human, animal or plant life or health. The agreement dictates that all sanitary measures must be scientifically based and not more restrictive than required to avoid the risk identified. The agreement recommends the use of international standards from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), Codex Alimentarius (CAC) and the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) as the basis for import requirements. If a country chooses to apply more restrictive measures than those in the international standards, it has to justify its position through a risk analysis, thus avoiding the use of sanitary and phytosanitary measures as unjustified barriers to trade. More than ever, veterinary services worldwide are faced with having to fulfill a crucial role in protecting their country's animal health status, provide sound surveillance information on the occurrence of diseases within their territories, and conduct scientifically valid risk analyses to establish justified import requirements. During the past two decades, most countries have experienced resource reduction in their veterinary services. The effect of these policies has been severe, in many cases leading to an inability of veterinary services to conduct their disease prevention and control duties. There is a clear inconsistency between the demands placed on veterinary services and the current level of funding and support they are receiving, particularly in

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barends, D.M.; Oldenhof, M.T.; Vredenbregt, M.J.

2012-01-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection...... and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring...... of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence...

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Hierarchic Analysis Method to Evaluate Rock Burst Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Ji

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In order to reasonably evaluate the risk of rock bursts in mines, the factors impacting rock bursts and the existing grading criterion on the risk of rock bursts were studied. By building a model of hierarchic analysis method, the natural factors, technology factors, and management factors that influence rock bursts were analyzed and researched, which determined the degree of each factor’s influence (i.e., weight and comprehensive index. Then the grade of rock burst risk was assessed. The results showed that the assessment level generated by the model accurately reflected the actual risk degree of rock bursts in mines. The model improved the maneuverability and practicability of existing evaluation criteria and also enhanced the accuracy and science of rock burst risk assessment.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JUAN LAGUARDIA

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

A Roadmap of Risk Diagnostic Methods: Developing an Integrated View of Risk Identification and Analysis Techniques

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Williams, Ray; Ambrose, Kate; Bentrem, Laura

2004-01-01

...), which is envisioned to be a comprehensive reference tool for risk identification and analysis (RI AND A) techniques. Program Managers (PMs) responsible for developing or acquiring software-intensive systems typically identify risks in different ways...

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-07-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of "active nanomaterials," that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a "risk" worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P [Servicio de Radiofísica y Protección Radiológica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain); Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C [Servicio de Oncología Radioterápica, Consorcio Hospitalario Provincial de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, España/Spain (Spain)

2016-06-15

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

SU-F-T-243: Major Risks in Radiotherapy. A Review Based On Risk Analysis Literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

López-Tarjuelo, J; Guasp-Tortajada, M; Iglesias-Montenegro, N; Monasor-Denia, P; Bouché-Babiloni, A; Morillo-Macías, V; Ferrer-Albiach, C

2016-01-01

Purpose: We present a literature review of risk analyses in radiotherapy to highlight the most reported risks and facilitate the spread of this valuable information so that professionals can be aware of these major threats before performing their own studies. Methods: We considered studies with at least an estimation of the probability of occurrence of an adverse event (O) and its associated severity (S). They cover external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy, intraoperative radiotherapy, and stereotactic techniques. We selected only the works containing a detailed ranked series of elements or failure modes and focused on the first fully reported quartile as much. Afterward, we sorted the risk elements according to a regular radiotherapy procedure so that the resulting groups were cited in several works and be ranked in this way. Results: 29 references published between 2007 and February 2016 were studied. Publication trend has been generally rising. The most employed analysis has been the Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). Among references, we selected 20 works listing 258 ranked risk elements. They were sorted into 31 groups appearing at least in two different works. 11 groups appeared in at least 5 references and 5 groups did it in 7 or more papers. These last sets of risks where choosing another set of images or plan for planning or treating, errors related with contours, errors in patient positioning for treatment, human mistakes when programming treatments, and planning errors. Conclusion: There is a sufficient amount and variety of references for identifying which failure modes or elements should be addressed in a radiotherapy department before attempting a specific analysis. FMEA prevailed, but other studies such as “risk matrix” or “occurrence × severity” analyses can also lead professionals’ efforts. Risk associated with human actions ranks very high; therefore, they should be automated or at least peer-reviewed.

Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-01-01

Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Scroggins, Sharon; Duda, Kristen

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of NASA's risk analysis communication programs associated with changing environmental policies. The topics include: 1) NASA Program Transition; 2) Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC); and 3) Regulatory Tracking and Communication Process.

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Work program analysis - defining the capability/risk plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hrinivich, W.A.

2004-01-01

Bruce Power has developed and implemented an analysis methodology (Work Program Analysis) to assess and address corporate business risk associated with work group capability. Work Program Analysis is proving to be an excellent tool for identifying and supporting key business decisions facing the line and senior management at Bruce Power. The following describes the methodology, its application and the results achieved. (author)

Challenges in the vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zio, Enrico

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a systematic view on the problem of vulnerability and risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Reflections are made on the inherent complexities of these systems, related challenges are identified and possible ways forward for their analysis and management are indicated. Specifically: the framework of vulnerability and risk analysis is examined in relation to its application for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures; it is argued that the complexity of these systems is a challenging characteristic, which calls for the integration of different modeling perspectives and new approaches of analysis; examples of are given in relation to the Internet and, particularly, the electric power grid, as representative of critical infrastructures and the associated complexity; the integration of different types of analyses and methods of system modeling is put forward for capturing the inherent structural and dynamic complexities of critical infrastructures and eventually evaluating their vulnerability and risk characteristics, so that decisions on protections and resilience actions can be taken with the required confidence. - Highlights: • The problem of the protection and resilience of CIs is the focus of the work. • The vulnerability and risk analysis framework for this is critically examined. • The complexity of CIs is presented as a challenge for system modeling and analysis. • The integration of different modeling perspectives of analysis is put forward as a solution. • The extension of the analysis framework to new methods for dealing with surprises and black swans is advocated.

Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan J. Lickley

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

Risk analysis; Analisis de riesgos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baron, J H; Nunez McLeod, J; Rivera, S S [Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Mendoza (Argentina). Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora (CEDIAC)

1997-07-01

This book contains a selection of research works performed in the CEDIAC Institute (Cuyo National University) in the area of Risk Analysis, with specific orientations to the subjects of uncertainty and sensitivity studies, software reliability, severe accident modeling, etc. This volume presents important material for all those researches who want to have an insight in the risk analysis field, as a tool to solution several problems frequently found in the engineering and applied sciences field, as well as for the academic teachers who want to keep up to date, including the new developments and improvements continuously arising in this field. [Spanish] Este libro contiene una seleccion de trabajos de investigacion realizados dentro del Instituto de Capacitacion Especial y Desarrollo de la Ingenieria Asistida por Computadora en el area del analisis de riesgos, con una orientacion hacia el estudio de incertidumbres y sensibilidad, confiabilidad de software, modelacion de accidentes severos, etc. Este volumen recoge un material de indudable importancia e interes para todos aquellos investigadores y profesionales que desean incursionar en este campo del analisis de riesgos como herramienta para la solucion de problemas frecuentemente encontrados en la ingenieria y las ciencias aplicadas, asi como para los academicos que desean mantenerse al dia, conociendo los nuevos desarrollos y tecnicas que constantemente aparecen en su area.

LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

OpenAIRE

Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

2012-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation.

Science.gov (United States)

van Leeuwen, J F; Nauta, M J; de Kaste, D; Odekerken-Rombouts, Y M C F; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Barends, D M

2009-12-05

We subjected a Near-Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for screening drugs on authenticity to a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), including technical risks as well as risks related to human failure. An FMEA team broke down the NIR analytical method into process steps and identified possible failure modes for each step. Each failure mode was ranked on estimated frequency of occurrence (O), probability that the failure would remain undetected later in the process (D) and severity (S), each on a scale of 1-10. Human errors turned out to be the most common cause of failure modes. Failure risks were calculated by Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs)=O x D x S. Failure modes with the highest RPN scores were subjected to corrective actions and the FMEA was repeated, showing reductions in RPN scores and resulting in improvement indices up to 5.0. We recommend risk analysis as an addition to the usual analytical validation, as the FMEA enabled us to detect previously unidentified risks.

76 FR 65166 - International Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standard-Setting Activities

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-20

... countries. 2. Biological Control Panel The panel will investigate possible biological control strategies for... Biological Control panel by assessing the risks associated with importation of bee pollen into NAPPO... bulletins on global disease status, and provides animal disease control guidelines to Members. Various OIE...

A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

El-Arkam Mechhoud

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

Management of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion in Risk-Based Inspection Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovhus, Torben Lund; Andersen, Erlend S.; Hillier, Elisabeth

2018-01-01

Operating offshore oil and gas production facilities is often associated with high risk. To manage the risk, operators commonly use aids to support decision making in the establishment of a maintenance and inspection strategy. Risk-based inspection (RBI) analysis is widely used in the offshore...... industry as a means to justify the inspection strategy adopted. The RBI analysis is a decision-making technique that enables asset managers to identify the risk related to failure of their most critical systems and components, with an effect on safety, environmental, and business-related issues. Risk...... influenced corrosion (MIC) is a degradation mechanism that has received increased attention from corrosion engineers and asset operators in the past decades. In this paper, the most recent models that have been developed to assess the impact of MIC on asset integrity will be presented and discussed. From...

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.

1996-01-01

Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

2011-01-01

The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

Perception and acceptance of technological risk sources. Volume 2. Empirical analysis of risk perception and acceptance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O

1981-01-01

Volume 2 presents a comparative investigation of risk perception and acceptance. It contains the evaluations of the two experiments in social psychology and the analysis of two intensive inquiries concerning risk perception with a view to 12 different risk sources. The data of the two inquiries were acquired from a total of 200 interview partners in two cities in North-Rhine Westphalia.

A Thermorisk framework for the analysis of energy systems by combining risk and exergy analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cassetti, G.; Colombo, E.; Zio, E.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems is presented. • The relation between thermodynamic parameters and the safety characteristics is identified. • Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system. - Abstract: The impact of energy production, transformation and use on the environmental resources encourage to understand the mechanisms of resource degradation and to develop proper analyses to reduce the impact of the energy systems on the environment. At the technical level, most attempts for reducing the environmental impact of energy systems focus on the improvement of process efficiency. One way toward an integrated approach is that of adopting exergy analysis for assessing efficiency and test improving design and operation solutions. The paper presents an exergy based analysis for improving efficiency and safety of energy systems, named Thermorisk analysis. The purpose of the Thermorisk analysis is to supply information to control, and eventually reduce, the risk of the systems (i.e. risk of accidents) by acting on the thermodynamic parameters and safety characteristics in the same frame. The proper combination of exergy and risk analysis allows monitoring the effects of efficiency improvement on the safety of the systems analyzed. A case study is presented, showing the potential of the analysis to identify the relation between the exergy efficiency and the risk of the system analyzed, and the contribution of inefficiencies on the safety of the process. Possible modifications in the process are indicated to improve the safety of the system.

Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

Science.gov (United States)

Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

2010-05-01

Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

HVAC fault tree analysis for WIPP integrated risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirby, P.; Iacovino, J.

1990-01-01

In order to evaluate the public health risk from operation of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) due to potential radioactive releases, a probabilistic risk assessment of waste handling operations was conducted. One major aspect of this risk assessment involved fault tree analysis of the plant heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which comprise the final barrier between waste handling operations and the environment. 1 refs., 1 tab

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartram, B.W.; Vaughan, F.R.; Englehart, D.R.W.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value

A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity

OpenAIRE

Vieira, Aitor Couce; Houmb, Siv Hilde; Insua, David Rios

2014-01-01

Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.

Terminological Ontologies for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Bodil Nistrup; Erdman Thomsen, Hanne

2014-01-01

Risk and vulnerability analyses are an important preliminary stage in civil contingency planning. The Danish Emergency Management Agency has developed a generic model and a set of tools that may be used in the preparedness planning, i.e. for identifying and describing society’s critical functions......, for formulating threat scenarios and for assessing consequences. Terminological ontologies, which are systems of domain specific concepts comprising concept relations and characteristics, are useful, both when describing the central concepts of risk and vulnerability analysis (meta concepts), and for further...

Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, Allison C; Staid, Andrea; Gao, Michael; Guikema, Seth D

2016-10-01

Simulation models are widely used in risk analysis to study the effects of uncertainties on outcomes of interest in complex problems. Often, these models are computationally complex and time consuming to run. This latter point may be at odds with time-sensitive evaluations or may limit the number of parameters that are considered. In this article, we give an introductory tutorial focused on parallelizing simulation code to better leverage modern computing hardware, enabling risk analysts to better utilize simulation-based methods for quantifying uncertainty in practice. This article is aimed primarily at risk analysts who use simulation methods but do not yet utilize parallelization to decrease the computational burden of these models. The discussion is focused on conceptual aspects of embarrassingly parallel computer code and software considerations. Two complementary examples are shown using the languages MATLAB and R. A brief discussion of hardware considerations is located in the Appendix. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2015-11-01

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and

The health risk of the agricultural production in potentially contaminated sites: an environmental-health risk analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Russo

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Rural areas are often interested by pollution phenomena generated by agricultural activities with a high use of pesticides and/or by anthropic activities, such as industrial plants or illegal waste disposal sites, which may cause even long-range contamination. The risk for human health from the pollutants present in the environment can be quantitatively evaluated by the environmental health risk analysis set out in the Italian Legislative Decree no. 152/2006 (Italian Regulation, 2006. This analysis is the best technical-normative tool to estimate the health risks linked to the pollutants present in the environment but it does not consider the specificity of agricultural soils or the contamination of agricultural products. This study aims to provide this missing technical-normative data by identifying and applying a suitable methodology to evaluate the health risk caused by the ingestion of agricultural products grown in contaminated soils. The risk analysis was applied to two contaminated areas in southern Italy using an innovative methodology based on widely accepted parameters for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs soil-plant bio-transfer factor in the case of horticultural crops. In addition, some concentration limits of PAHs in agricultural soils are proposed that may be of help to the competent authorities (health agencies, local authorities in delineating the areas requiring strict health surveillance of the food products cultivated.

Aspects of the risk analysis in the process engineering industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hennings, W.; Madjar, M.; Mock, R.; Reer, B.

1996-01-01

This document is the result of a multi-discipline working group of a portion of a project called Risk analysis for chemical plants. Within the framework of the project, only selected methods and tools of risk analysis, thus, aspects of method, were able to be discussed and developed further. Case examples from the chemical industry are dealt with in order to discuss the application of a computer assisted quantitative error analysis in this industrial sector. Included is also a comprehensive documentation of the data and results utilised in the examples. figs., tabs., refs

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuzma, Jennifer; Roberts, John Patrick

2016-01-01

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

Is adaptation or transformation needed? Active nanomaterials and risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuzma, Jennifer, E-mail: jkuzma@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs and Genetic Engineering and Society Center (United States); Roberts, John Patrick [North Carolina State University, School of Public and International Affairs (United States)

2016-07-15

Nanotechnology has been a key area of funding and policy for the United States and globally for the past two decades. Since nanotechnology research and development became a focus and nanoproducts began to permeate the market, scholars and scientists have been concerned about how to assess the risks that they may pose to human health and the environment. The newest generation of nanomaterials includes biomolecules that can respond to and influence their environments, and there is a need to explore whether and how existing risk-analysis frameworks are challenged by such novelty. To fill this niche, we used a modified approach of upstream oversight assessment (UOA), a subset of anticipatory governance. We first selected case studies of “active nanomaterials,” that are early in research and development and designed for use in multiple sectors, and then considered them under several, key risk-analysis frameworks. We found two ways in which the cases challenge the frameworks. The first category relates to how to assess risk under a narrow framing of the term (direct health and environmental harm), and the second involves the definition of what constitutes a “risk” worthy of assessment and consideration in decision making. In light of these challenges, we propose some changes for risk analysis in the face of active nanostructures in order to improve risk governance.

Country risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

David, A.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the oil industry has been an internationally based industry that has been heavily dependent on outside financing sources. Historically, financing came from investment houses that, in most cases, participated in the projects as equity investors. However, investment companies can no longer satisfy the capital requirements of the current high level of exploration and development activities. The current trend is to involve commercial banks on a purely lending basis. Commercial banks, by their nature, are risk averse. In the case of oil and gas exploration and production they are asked to take not only technical risk and price risk but geopolitical risk as well. Methods have been developed by commercial banks to reduce technical and price risks to point which enables them to be comfortable with a loan. However, geopolitical risks are more difficult to assess. The risk associated with many countries are the nationalization of the investment, new tax restrictions, restriction of currency movements, and/or revisions to the production sharing agreements

A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aitor Couce Vieira

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.

Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

CERN Document Server

Willmot, Gordon E

2017-01-01

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

Case studies: Risk-based analysis of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Minton, L.A.; Gaertner, J.P.

1987-01-01

The SOCRATES computer program uses the results of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or a system level risk analysis to calculate changes in risk due to changes in the surveillance test interval and/or the allowed outage time stated in the technical specification. The computer program can accommodate various testing strategies (such as staggered or simultaneous testing) to allow modeling of component testing as it is carried out at a plant. The methods and computer program are an integral part of a larger decision process aimed at determining benefits from technical specification changes. These benefits can include cost savings to the utilities by reducing forced shutdowns with no adverse impacts on risk. Three summaries of case study applications are included to demonstrate the types of results that can be achieved through risk-based evaluation of technical specifications. (orig.)

Interceptions of harmful organisms during import inspections of cut flowers in the Netherlands : an empirical and theoretical analysis of the 'reduced checks' system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Surkov, I.; Werf, van der W.; Kooten, van O.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2007-01-01

As of January 1st 2005, a system of reduced checks for phytosanitary inspections of certain plants and plant products imported into the European Union (EU) is in place. Under this system, plants and plant products satisfying special criteria may be inspected with a reduced frequency. These criteria

Automated procedure for performing computer security risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

1984-05-01

Computers, the invisible backbone of nuclear safeguards, monitor and control plant operations and support many materials accounting systems. Our automated procedure to assess computer security effectiveness differs from traditional risk analysis methods. The system is modeled as an interactive questionnaire, fully automated on a portable microcomputer. A set of modular event trees links the questionnaire to the risk assessment. Qualitative scores are obtained for target vulnerability, and qualitative impact measures are evaluated for a spectrum of threat-target pairs. These are then combined by a linguistic algebra to provide an accurate and meaningful risk measure. 12 references, 7 figures

Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis: A Case Study of the Normative Peer Review Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gaute Wangen

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to conduct risk assessments of complex incentive systems, using a case study of the normative Peer Review Process (PRP. This research centers on appliances and adaptations of the Conflicting Incentives Risk Analysis (CIRA. First as an approach to Root Cause Analysis of a known incident, and then for a full assessment of the incentives in the PRP together with possible risk treatments. CIRA uses an alternative notion of risk, where risk modeling is in terms of conflicting incentives between the risk owner and the stakeholders concerning the execution of actions. Compared to traditional risk assessment approaches, CIRA provides an insight into the underlying incentives behind a risk, and not just the technical vulnerability, likelihood and consequence. The main contributions of this work are an approach to obtain insight into incentives as root causes, and an approach to detecting and analyzing risks from incentives in the normative PRP. This paper also discusses risk treatments in terms of incentives to make the PRP more robust, together with a discussion of how to approach risk analysis of incentives.

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality.

Science.gov (United States)

Slovic, Paul; Finucane, Melissa L; Peters, Ellen; MacGregor, Donald G

2004-04-01

Modern theories in cognitive psychology and neuroscience indicate that there are two fundamental ways in which human beings comprehend risk. The "analytic system" uses algorithms and normative rules, such as probability calculus, formal logic, and risk assessment. It is relatively slow, effortful, and requires conscious control. The "experiential system" is intuitive, fast, mostly automatic, and not very accessible to conscious awareness. The experiential system enabled human beings to survive during their long period of evolution and remains today the most natural and most common way to respond to risk. It relies on images and associations, linked by experience to emotion and affect (a feeling that something is good or bad). This system represents risk as a feeling that tells us whether it is safe to walk down this dark street or drink this strange-smelling water. Proponents of formal risk analysis tend to view affective responses to risk as irrational. Current wisdom disputes this view. The rational and the experiential systems operate in parallel and each seems to depend on the other for guidance. Studies have demonstrated that analytic reasoning cannot be effective unless it is guided by emotion and affect. Rational decision making requires proper integration of both modes of thought. Both systems have their advantages, biases, and limitations. Now that we are beginning to understand the complex interplay between emotion and reason that is essential to rational behavior, the challenge before us is to think creatively about what this means for managing risk. On the one hand, how do we apply reason to temper the strong emotions engendered by some risk events? On the other hand, how do we infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"? This article addresses these important questions.

ANALYSIS METHODS OF BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIAN ENERGY MINING INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CORICI MARIAN CATALIN

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The study is an analysis of bankruptcy risk and assessing the economic performance of the entity in charge of energy mining industry from southwest region. The scientific activity assesses the risk of bankruptcy using score’s method and some indicators witch reflecting the results obtained and elements from organization balance sheet involved in mining and energy which contributes to the stability of the national energy system. Analysis undertaken is focused on the application of the business organization models that allow a comprehensive assessment of the risk of bankruptcy and be an instrument of its forecast. In this study will be highlighted developments bankruptcy risk within the organization through the Altman model and Conan-Holder model in order to show a versatile image on the organization's ability to ensure business continuity

The Financial Analysis with Focus of Risks in the Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleisky González-Duany

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article consists in exposes the importance, need and convenience to develop a financial analysis with focus of risks in the banking activity to avoid damages and to take exactly and opportunity decisions. This analysis linked with bank risks will allow to the banking system measuring the efficiency in the different services that you render, detecting the different inherent risks to the financial activity with a former focus before, for the sake of giving fulfillment to the organizational goals

Risk analysis of geothermal power plants using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feili, Hamid Reza; Akar, Navid; Lotfizadeh, Hossein; Bairampour, Mohammad; Nasiri, Sina

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to find potential failures in geothermal power plants. • We considered 5 major parts of geothermal power plants for risk analysis. • Risk Priority Number (RPN) is calculated for all failure modes. • Corrective actions are recommended to eliminate or decrease the risk of failure modes. - Abstract: Renewable energy plays a key role in the transition toward a low carbon economy and the provision of a secure supply of energy. Geothermal energy is a versatile source as a form of renewable energy that meets popular demand. Since some Geothermal Power Plants (GPPs) face various failures, the requirement of a technique for team engineering to eliminate or decrease potential failures is considerable. Because no specific published record of considering an FMEA applied to GPPs with common failure modes have been found already, in this paper, the utilization of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as a convenient technique for determining, classifying and analyzing common failures in typical GPPs is considered. As a result, an appropriate risk scoring of occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes and computing the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for detecting high potential failures is achieved. In order to expedite accuracy and ability to analyze the process, XFMEA software is utilized. Moreover, 5 major parts of a GPP is studied to propose a suitable approach for developing GPPs and increasing reliability by recommending corrective actions for each failure mode

A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chinh Luu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

Science.gov (United States)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

Science.gov (United States)

Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

2012-05-01

Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rocky Flats Plant Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nicolosi, S.L.; Rodriguez, M.A.

1994-04-01

The objective of the Live-Fire Range Risk Analysis Report (RAR) is to provide an authorization basis for operation as required by DOE 5480.16. The existing Live-Fire Range does not have a safety analysis-related authorization basis. EG&G Rocky Flats, Inc. has worked with DOE and its representatives to develop a format and content description for development of an RAR for the Live-Fire Range. Development of the RAR is closely aligned with development of the design for a baffle system to control risks from errant projectiles. DOE 5480.16 requires either an RAR or a safety analysis report (SAR) for live-fire ranges. An RAR rather than a SAR was selected in order to gain flexibility to more closely address the safety analysis and conduct of operation needs for a live-fire range in a cost-effective manner.

Migraine Headache and Ischemic Stroke Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Spector, June T.; Kahn, Susan R.; Jones, Miranda R.; Jayakumar, Monisha; Dalal, Deepan; Nazarian, Saman

2010-01-01

Background Observational studies, including recent large cohort studies which were unavailable for prior meta-analysis, have suggested an association between migraine headache and ischemic stroke. We performed an updated meta-analysis to quantitatively summarize the strength of association between migraine and ischemic stroke risk. Methods We systematically searched electronic databases, including MEDLINE and EMBASE, through February 2009 for studies of human subjects in the English language. Study selection using a priori selection criteria, data extraction, and assessment of study quality were conducted independently by reviewer pairs using standardized forms. Results Twenty-one (60%) of 35 studies met the selection criteria, for a total of 622,381 participants (13 case-control, 8 cohort studies) included in the meta-analysis. The pooled adjusted odds ratio of ischemic stroke comparing migraineurs to non-migraineurs using a random effects model was 2.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.76). The pooled adjusted effect estimates for studies that reported relative risks and hazard ratios, respectively, were 2.41 (95% CI, 1.81-3.20) and 1.52 (95% CI, 0.99-2.35). The overall pooled effect estimate was 2.04 (95% CI, 1.72-2.43). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding lower quality studies. Conclusions Migraine is associated with increased ischemic stroke risk. These findings underscore the importance of identifying high-risk migraineurs with other modifiable stroke risk factors. Future studies of the effect of migraine treatment and modifiable risk factor reduction on stroke risk in migraineurs are warranted. PMID:20493462

Risk analysis in oil spill response planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chernoplekov, A.N.; Alexandrov, A.A.

2005-01-01

Tiered response is a basic approach to emergency plans, including oil spill response (OSR). This paper delineates a huge set of accidental scenarios within a certain tier of response generated by a computer during risk assessment. Parameters such as the amount of oil spilled, duration of discharge and types of losses should be provided in OSR scenarios. Examples of applications include offshore installations, sub sea or onshore pipelines, and localized onshore facilities. The paper demonstrates how to use risk analysis results for delineating all likely spills into groups that need a specific tier response. The best world practices and Russian regulatory approaches were outlined and compared. Corresponding algorithms were developed and their application in pipelines was presented. The algorithm combines expert's skills and spill trajectory modeling with the net environmental benefit analysis principle into the incident specific emergency response planning. 9 refs., 13 tabs., 2 figs

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of releases from accidents during mid-loop operation at Surry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Nimnual, S.; Mubayi, V.; Neymotin, L.

1992-11-01

Studies and operating experience suggest that the risk of severe accidents during low power operation and/or shutdown (LP/S) conditions could be a significant fraction of the risk at full power operation. Two studies have begun at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the severe accident progression from a risk perspective during these conditions: One at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for the Surry plant, a pressurized water reactor (PWR), and the other at the Sandia National Laboratories for the Grand Gulf plant, a boiling water reactor (BWR). Each of the studies consists of three linked, but distinct, components: a Level I probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the initiating events, systems analysis, and accident sequences leading to core damage; a Level 2/3 analysis of accident progression, fuel damage, releases, containment performance, source term and consequences-off-site and on-site; and a detailed Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) of actions relevant to plant conditions during LP/S operations. This paper summarizes the approach taken for the Level 2/3 analysis at Surry and provides preliminary results on the risk of releases and consequences for one plant operating state, mid-loop operation, during shutdown

Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pushkina Julia

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juhásová L.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

Quantitative risk analysis in two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Claudio B. [PETROBRAS Transporte S/A (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Pinho, Edson [Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ), Seropedica, RJ (Brazil); Bittencourt, Euclides [Centro Universitario FIB, Salvador , BA (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Transportation risk analysis techniques were used to study two pipelines operated by TRANSPETRO. The Pipeline A is for the simultaneous transportation of diesel, gasoline and LPG and comprises three parts, all of them crossing rural areas. The Pipeline B is for oil transportation and one of its ends is located in an area of a high density population. Both pipelines had their risk studied using the PHAST RISK{sup R} software and the individual risk measures, the only considered measures for license purposes for this type of studies, presented level far below the maximum tolerable levels considered. (author)

Living with Risk in Everyday Life - A Comparative Analysis on Handling and Reflecting Risk in Everyday Actions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elverdam, Beth; Hoel Felde, Lina Klara

phones; chemicals in a nursery; elevated cholesterol was combined to analyse the concept of risk in everyday life. In-depth qualitative interviews with 46 people made it possible to analyse a general perception of risk in everyday life. Interviews were analysed using a phenomenological thematical content...... analysis. Results: Although risk is communicated in the media and by health personnel, and thus has a general presence in society, participants in everyday life place risk at the periphery of life. Risk is not part of their everyday reflections. When risk manifests itself in everyday life, it is reflected...

Ischemic risk stratification by means of multivariate analysis of the heart rate variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valencia, José F; Vallverdú, Montserrat; Caminal, Pere; Porta, Alberto; Voss, Andreas; Schroeder, Rico; Vázquez, Rafael; Bayés de Luna, Antonio

2013-01-01

In this work, a univariate and multivariate statistical analysis of indexes derived from heart rate variability (HRV) was conducted to stratify patients with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (IDC) in cardiac risk groups. Indexes conditional entropy, refined multiscale entropy (RMSE), detrended fluctuation analysis, time and frequency analysis, were applied to the RR interval series (beat-to-beat series), for single and multiscale complexity analysis of the HRV in IDC patients. Also, clinical parameters were considered. Two different end-points after a follow-up of three years were considered: (i) analysis A, with 151 survivor patients as a low risk group and 13 patients that suffered sudden cardiac death as a high risk group; (ii) analysis B, with 192 survivor patients as a low risk group and 30 patients that suffered cardiac mortality as a high risk group. A univariate and multivariate linear discriminant analysis was used as a statistical technique for classifying patients in risk groups. Sensitivity (Sen) and specificity (Spe) were calculated as diagnostic criteria in order to evaluate the performance of the indexes and their linear combinations. Sen and Spe values of 80.0% and 72.9%, respectively, were obtained during daytime by combining one clinical parameter and one index from RMSE, and during nighttime Sen = 80% and Spe = 73.4% were attained by combining one clinical factor and two indexes from RMSE. In particular, relatively long time scales were more relevant for classifying patients into risk groups during nighttime, while during daytime shorter scales performed better. The results suggest that the left atrial size, indexed to body surface and RMSE indexes are those that allow enhanced classification of ischemic patients in their respective risk groups, confirming that a single measurement is not enough to fully characterize ischemic risk patients and the clinical relevance of HRV complexity measures. (paper)

76 FR 76103 - Privacy Act; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-06

... Rulemaking: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the... portions of the Risk Analysis and Management (RAM) Records, State-78, system of records contain criminal...) * * * (2) * * * Risk Analysis and Management Records, STATE-78. * * * * * (b) * * * (1) * * * Risk Analysis...

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

H15-42: CFD analysis for risk analysis in urban environments - Tilburg city case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulsbosch-Dam, C.; Mack, A.; Ratingen, S. van; Rosmuller, N.; Trijssenaar, I.

2013-01-01

For risk analysis studies, relatively simple dispersion models are generally applied, such as Gaussian dispersion and dense gas dispersion models. For rail transport risk analyses in the Netherlands, fixed consequence distances are applied for various standard scenarios of hazardous materials

Analysis of Blade Fragment Risk at a Wind Energy Facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simms, David A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larwood, Scott [University of the Pacific

2018-04-06

An analysis was performed to determine the risk posed by wind turbine fragments on roads and buildings at the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The authors used a previously developed model of fragment trajectory and took into account the wind speed/direction distribution at the site and the probability of rotor failure. The risk was assessed by determining the likelihood of impact and related consequences. For both the roads and buildings, the risk varied from low to routine, which was considered acceptable. The analysis was compared with previous recommendations on wind turbine setback distances. The results showed that a setback to property lines of 2 times the overall turbine height would be acceptable. However, the setback to dwellings should probably be increased from 3 to 3.5 times the overall turbine height for an acceptable risk.

Liquidity Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis on Panel Data Analysis and ISE Banking Sector

OpenAIRE

Sibel ÇELİK; Yasemin Deniz AKARIM

2012-01-01

In this paper, we test the factors affecting liquidity risk management in banking sector in Turkey by using panel regression analysis. We use the data for 9 commercial banks traded in Istanbul Stock Exchange for the period 1998-2008. In conclusion, we find that risky liquid assets and return on equity variables are negatively related with liquidity risk. However, external financing and return on asset variables are positively related with liquidity risk. This finding is importance for banks s...

Advanced risk analysis of systems endangered by ESD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiss, Istvan; Szedenik, Norbert; Nemeth, Balint; Gulyas, Attila; Berta, Istvan

2008-01-01

Evaluation of industrial processes to determine risk of fire or explosion caused by electrostatic discharge (ESD) is even nowadays qualitative in most cases. Although qualitative analysis significantly helps to make an industrial process safer, it is based on the survey of the process and strongly subjective, depending on the estimation of an expert. Fault tree analysis is a traditional method to quantify the risk; it helps to select optimal protection. However, determination of top event, secondary events and basic events of the fault tree is difficult, especially the quantification of the probabilities of the basic events. In several cases no statistical information is available for most of the events. Using fuzzy membership functions instead of simple numbers for the quantification of probabilities makes it possible to take this uncertainty into consideration. Fuzzy logic based fault tree analysis of chemical processes were made to determine the effect of basic events on the probability of the top event (explosion or fire) and its reliability.

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-15

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

2017-01-01

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

CERN Document Server

Lee, John C

2011-01-01

The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats

CERN Document Server

Bier, Vicki M

2008-01-01

Introduces reliability and risk analysis in the face of threats by intelligent agents. This book covers applications to networks, including problems in both telecommunications and transportation. It provides a set of tools for applying game theory TO reliability problems in the presence of intentional, intelligent threats

Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-09-01

Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases.

Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality

Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1992-01-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Luis Fuentes-Bargues

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA. Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain. HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvidsson, Marcus

2011-09-01

External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

Development of seismic risk analysis methodologies at JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, T.; Abe, K.; Ebisawa, K.; Oikawa, T.

1988-01-01

The usefulness of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is recognized worldwidely for balanced design and regulation of nuclear power plants. In Japan, the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been engaged in developing methodologies necessary for carrying out PSA. The research and development program was started in 1980. In those days the effort was only for internal initiator PSA. In 1985 the program was expanded so as to include external event analysis. Although this expanded program is to cover various external initiators, the current effort is dedicated for seismic risk analysis. There are three levels of seismic PSA, similarly to internal initiator PSA: Level 1: Evaluation of core damage frequency, Level 2: Evaluation of radioactive release frequency and source terms, and Level 3: Evaluation of environmental consequence. In the JAERI's program, only the methodologies for level 1 seismic PSA are under development. The methodology development for seismic risk analysis is divided into two phases. The Phase I study is to establish a whole set of simple methodologies based on currently available data. In the Phase II, Sensitivity study will be carried out to identify the parameters whose uncertainty may result in lage uncertainty in seismic risk, and For such parameters, the methodology will be upgraded. Now the Phase I study has almost been completed. In this report, outlines of the study and some of its outcomes are described

Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco

protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

Environmental Risk Assessment: Spatial Analysis of Chemical Hazards and Risks in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, H.; Heo, S.; Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.

2017-12-01

This study identified chemical hazard and risk levels in Korea by analyzing the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents. The number of chemical factories and accidents in 5-km2 grids were used as the attribute value for spatial analysis. First, semi-variograms were conducted to examine spatial distribution patterns and to identify spatial autocorrelation of chemical factories and accidents. Semi-variograms explained that the spatial distribution of chemical factories and accidents were spatially autocorrelated. Second, the results of the semi-variograms were used in Ordinary Kriging to estimate chemical hazard and risk level. The level values were extracted from the Ordinary Kriging result and their spatial similarity was examined by juxtaposing the two values with respect to their location. Six peaks were identified in both the hazard and risk estimation result, and the peaks correlated with major cities in Korea. Third, the estimated hazard and risk levels were classified with geometrical interval and could be classified into four quadrants: Low Hazard and Low Risk (LHLR), Low Hazard and High Risk (LHHR), High Hazard and Low Risk (HHLR), and High Hazard and High Risk (HHHR). The 4 groups identified different chemical safety management issues in Korea; relatively safe LHLR group, many chemical reseller factories were found in HHLR group, chemical transportation accidents were in the LHHR group, and an abundance of factories and accidents were in the HHHR group. Each quadrant represented different safety management obstacles in Korea, and studying spatial differences can support the establishment of an efficient risk management plan.

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2003-01-01

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

2012-01-01

to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

1990-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

1989-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

Myeloperoxidase polymorphism, menopausal status, and breast cancer risk: an update meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Qin

Full Text Available Myeloperoxidase (MPO is a metabolic/oxidative lysosomal enzyme secreted by reactive neutrophils at the sites of inflamed organs and tissues during phagocytosis. MPO has been either directly or indirectly linked to neoplasia, which is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancer. A large number of studies have reported the role of MPO G-463A polymorphism regarding breast-cancer risk. However, the published findings are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine more precise estimations for the relationship. Eligible studies were identified by searching several electronic databases for relevant reports published before June 2012. According to the inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria, a total of five eligible studies were included in the pooled analyses. When the five eligible studies concerning MPO G-463A polymorphism were pooled into this meta-analysis, there was no evidence found for a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. We also categorized by ethnicity (Caucasian or Asian for subgroup analysis; according to this subgroup analysis, we found no significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk in any genetic model. However, in the stratified analysis for the premenopausal group, women carrying the AA genotype were found to have a significantly reduced risk (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.94, p = 0.027. Under the recessive model, there was a significant association between MPO G-463A polymorphism and breast-cancer risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.93, p = 0.025. We conclude that MPO-G463A polymorphism might not be a good predictor of breast-cancer risk, though menopausal status modified women's risk of developing breast cancer.

The STABALID project: Risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries for power system applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, F.J.; Carvalho, L.; Costa, I.C.; Iria, J.P.; Bodet, J.-M.; Jacinto, G.; Lecocq, A.; Roessner, J.; Caillard, B.; Salvi, O.

2015-01-01

This work presents a risk analysis performed to stationary Li-ion batteries within the framework of the STABALID project. The risk analysis had as main objective analysing the variety of hazards and dangerous situations that might be experienced by the battery during its life cycle and providing useful information on how to prevent or manage those undesired events. The first task of the risk analysis was the identification of all the hazards (or risks) that may arise during the battery life cycle. Afterwards, the hazards identified were mapped in the different stages of the battery life cycle and two analyses were performed for each stage: an internal problem analysis and an external peril analysis. For both, the dangerous phenomena and the undesirable events resulting from each hazard was evaluated in terms of probability of occurrence and severity. Then, a risk assessment was carried out according to a predefined risk matrix and a preliminary set of risk mitigation measures were proposed to reduce their probability of occurrence and/or their severity level. The results obtained show that it is possible to reduce the probability of occurrence/severity of all the risks associated to the battery life cycle to acceptable or tolerable levels. - Highlights: • Methodology for a detailed risk analysis of stationary Li-ion batteries. • Various hazards and dangerous situations are analysed with high detail. • Useful information on how to prevent or manage the undesired events is provided. • Measures to reduce probability of occurrence/severity of the risks are presented

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

Science.gov (United States)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

Carotenoids and risk of fracture: a meta-analysis of observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jiuhong; Song, Chunli; Song, Xiaochao; Zhang, Xi; Li, Xinli

2017-01-10

To quantify the association between dietary and circulating carotenoids and fracture risk, a meta-analysis was conducted by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for eligible articles published before May 2016. Five prospective and 2 case-control studies with 140,265 participants and 4,324 cases were identified in our meta-analysis. Among which 5 studies assessed the association between dietary carotenoids levels and hip fracture risk, 2 studies focused on the association between circulating carotenoids levels and any fracture risk. A random-effects model was employed to summarize the risk estimations and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Hip fracture risk among participants with high dietary total carotenoids intake was 28% lower than that in participants with low dietary total carotenoids (OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.51, 1.01). A similar risk of hip fracture was found for β-carotene based on 5 studies, the summarized OR for high vs. low dietary β-carotene was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.54, 0.95). However, a significant between-study heterogeneity was found (total carotene: I2 = 59.4%, P = 0.06; β-carotene: I2 = 74.4%, P = 0.04). Other individual carotenoids did not show significant associations with hip fracture risk. Circulating carotene levels had no significant association with any fracture risk, the pooled OR (95% CI) was 0.83 (0.59, 1.17). Based on the evidence from observational studies, our meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that higher dietary total carotenoids or β-carotene intake might be potentially associated with a low risk of hip fracture, however, future well-designed prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted to specify the associations between carotenoids and fracture.

Frequency-Risk and Duration-Risk Relationships between Aspirin Use and Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yanhui; Liu, Li; Chen, Sidong

2013-01-01

Background Although previous meta-analyses have suggested an association between aspirin use and risk of gastric cancer, current evidence is inconsistent. Additionally, it remains unclear whether there are frequency-risk and duration-risk relationships and if a threshold of effect exists. Methods We identified studies by searching MEDLINE and PUBMED databases and reviewing relevant articles. We derived the summary risk estimates using fixed-effects or random-effects model based on homogeneity analysis. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Potential heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and quantified with the I 2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and Galbraith plots were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated with funnel plots and quantified by the Begg's and Egger's test. Results Fifteen studies were included in this meta-analysis. There was an overall 29% reduced risk of gastric cancer corresponding to aspirin use (RR  = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60–0.82). We found there are nonlinear frequency-risk and linear duration-risk relations between aspirin use and gastric cancer. A monotonically decreasing relation was observed only for low-frequency (≤4.5 times/week) aspirin intake (10% decreased risk for once/week, 19% for twice/week and 29% for 4.5 times/week), and the frequency threshold of aspirin use is 4.5 times per week. Regarding those with duration of aspirin use, there was a tendency towards stronger risk reduction of gastric cancer for longer aspirin use (10% decreased risk for 4 years, 19% for 8 years and 28% for 12 years), and no duration threshold was observed. Conclusion Our findings suggest that long-term (≥4 years) and low-frequency (1–4.5 times per week) aspirin use is associated with a statistically significant, dose-dependent reduction in the risk of gastric cancer. PMID:23936269

Frequency-risk and duration-risk relationships between aspirin use and gastric cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaohua Ye

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although previous meta-analyses have suggested an association between aspirin use and risk of gastric cancer, current evidence is inconsistent. Additionally, it remains unclear whether there are frequency-risk and duration-risk relationships and if a threshold of effect exists. METHODS: We identified studies by searching MEDLINE and PUBMED databases and reviewing relevant articles. We derived the summary risk estimates using fixed-effects or random-effects model based on homogeneity analysis. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Potential heterogeneity was tested using the Q statistic and quantified with the I (2 statistic. Subgroup analyses and Galbraith plots were used to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated with funnel plots and quantified by the Begg's and Egger's test. RESULTS: Fifteen studies were included in this meta-analysis. There was an overall 29% reduced risk of gastric cancer corresponding to aspirin use (RR  = 0.71, 95% CI 0.60-0.82. We found there are nonlinear frequency-risk and linear duration-risk relations between aspirin use and gastric cancer. A monotonically decreasing relation was observed only for low-frequency (≤4.5 times/week aspirin intake (10% decreased risk for once/week, 19% for twice/week and 29% for 4.5 times/week, and the frequency threshold of aspirin use is 4.5 times per week. Regarding those with duration of aspirin use, there was a tendency towards stronger risk reduction of gastric cancer for longer aspirin use (10% decreased risk for 4 years, 19% for 8 years and 28% for 12 years, and no duration threshold was observed. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that long-term (≥4 years and low-frequency (1-4.5 times per week aspirin use is associated with a statistically significant, dose-dependent reduction in the risk of gastric cancer.

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; Pmedia (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

Cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors: an evolutionary concept analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vo JB

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Jacqueline B Vo,1 Timiya S Nolan,1 David E Vance,1 Patricia A Patrician,2 Karen Meneses1 1Office of Research and Scholarship, 2Department of Family, Community Health, and Systems, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Nursing, Birmingham, AL, USA Background: More than 3.5 million breast cancer survivors are living in the US, and the overall five-year survival rate is approaching 90%. With increased survival and cancer treatment-related cardiotoxicities, there has been a rise in cardiovascular diseases among breast cancer survivors. Yet, cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors has not been well conceptualized. The purpose of this article was to analyze and define the concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. Methods: The databases CINAHL, EMBASE, and PubMed were used to identify articles that explored cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors. The search yielded 357 articles, which were reviewed for eligibility. Thirty articles were selected based on the inclusion/exclusion criteria. The concept of cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors was analyzed using Rodgers’ evolutionary concept analysis method. Results: The analysis suggests that cardiovascular disease risk among breast cancer survivors consists of several attributes: cancer treatment (chemotherapy, targeted therapies, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy, modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity, poor diet, and smoking, and nonmodifiable risk factors (age, family history, and race. The antecedent identified includes breast cancer diagnosis and the consequence identified includes the development of cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Findings suggest the need for increased education and understanding of ­cardiovascular disease risk among health care providers and patients. Survivorship care plans can incorporate cardiovascular disease risk monitoring and screening. Future research

Occupational and Cost Risk : Critical Analysis of Monetization Policy Risk Approach to the Spanish Law Standards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Antônio César Villatore

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The problem that surrounds the issue of occupational risk is a phenomenon that plagues every society, because the work is a central element and gives force to the economy. In this sense, the exposure of workers to harmful activities that may cause damage to your health and physical and mental integrity, based on the monetization policy of risk adopted by the Brazilian legal system, can import costs to the workers, employers, the state and society. Thus, the present study seeks, from the labor law analysis and the use of concepts of Economic Analysis of Law, attest that the social costs caused by worker exposure to risk is, fallaciously shown, in a short-term smaller than that of prevention, but in the long run can import the burden on all parties of the employment relationship as well as the State and society, being necessary to use economic and legal measures for changing the monetization of risk policy, as in alien systems, as the Spanish Law analyzed.

General overview and perspectives of risk analysis in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torres, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Vilaragut, J.J.; Valhuerdi, C.

1995-01-01

This papers shows a general overview of the application of risk analysis techniques in some potentially dangerous industries in Cuba. This paper summarizes the experiences of these sectors in the risk analysis with different specification levels and different approaches. Some experiences in the application of these analyses in the nuclear and aeronautical industries are shown. Some analyses of consequences in cases of accidents in the chemical industries in order to work due and improve emergency plans for responding to accident situations are presented in a more succinct manner. Also the perspectives to develop some of these tendencies and cooperation forms between them are summarized

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-01-01

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements in health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada's concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

2010-01-01

Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

Meta-analysis on shift work and risks of specific obesity types.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, M; Feng, W; Wang, F; Li, P; Li, Z; Li, M; Tse, G; Vlaanderen, J; Vermeulen, R; Tse, L A

2018-01-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the associations between shift work patterns and risks of specific types of obesity. PubMed was searched until March 2017 for observational studies that examined the relationships between shift work patterns and obesity. Odds ratio for obesity was extracted using a fixed-effects or random-effects model. Subgroup meta-analyses were carried out for study design, specific obesity types and characteristics of shift work pattern. A total of 28 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The overall odds ratio of night shift work was 1.23 (95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.29) for risk of obesity/overweight. Cross-sectional studies showed a higher risk of 1.26 than those with the cohort design (risk ratio = 1.10). Shift workers had a higher frequency of developing abdominal obesity (odds ratio = 1.35) than other obesity types. Permanent night workers demonstrated a 29% higher risk than rotating shift workers (odds ratio 1.43 vs. 1.14). This meta-analysis confirmed the risks of night shift work for the development of overweight and obesity with a potential gradient association suggested, especially for abdominal obesity. Modification of working schedules is recommended, particularly for prolonged permanent night work. More accurate and detailed measurements on shift work patterns should be conducted in future research. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

ANALYSIS MODELS OF THE BANKRUPTCY RISK IN ROMANIA’S ENERGY SECTOR

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIRON VASILE CRISTIAN IOACHIM

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The risk, as a concept found in the economic sphere of business represents an analysis area often approached by researchers from the finance and accounting field. Although it is often seen, along with cost-effectiveness and value, as a fundamental element of finance (Stancu, I., 2007, the risk has often facets that make it useful also in analyzing other sides of the economic sphere of business, such as financial position and economic performance of it. From these meanings, we believe that the most suitable for this purpose is the one through which it is analyzed the ability of an entity to avoid bankruptcy. The present study has as main objectives the presentation of bankruptcy risk of an entity from a theoretical point of view and the analysis (from an empirical and comparative point of view through the scoring method of the implementation of various models for analyzing the risk of bankruptcy (Altman, Conan-holder, Taffler, Robertson in Romania’s energy sector, in order to issue an opinion regarding the optimal method for analyzing the bankruptcy risk in the energy sector. The results show that there are significant differences regarding the analysis of the bankruptcy risk through the appliction of different models, proposing the Conan-Holder model as the most appropriate for this sector.

76 FR 76215 - Privacy Act; System of Records: State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-06

... a system of records, Risk Analysis and Management Records, State-78, pursuant to the provisions of... INFORMATION: The Department of State proposes that the new system will be ``Risk Analysis and Management.... These standard routine uses apply to State-78, Risk Analysis and Management Records. POLICIES AND...

The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

2011-01-01

The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.

1992-10-01

To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites

Risk Analysis Method Based on FMEA for Transmission Line in Lightning Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

You-Yuan WANG

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Failure rate of transmission line and reliability of power system are significantly affected by Lightning meteorological factor. In view of the complexity and variability of Lightning meteorological factors, this paper presents lightning trip-out rate model of transmission line in considering distribution of ground flash density and lightning day hours. Meanwhile, presents a failure rate model of transmission line in different condition, and a risk analysis method for transmission line considering multiple risk factors based on risk quantification. This method takes Lightning meteorological factor as the main evaluation standard, and establishes risk degree evaluation system for transmission line including another five evaluation standard. Put forward the risk indicators by quantify the risk factors based on experience date of transmission line in service. Based on the risk indexes comprehensive evaluation is conducted, and the evaluation result closer to practice is achieved, providing basis for transmission line risk warning and maintenance strategy. Through the risk analysis for 220 kV transmission line in a certain power supply bureau, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated.

Meat intake and risk of bladder cancer: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chaojun; Jiang, Hai

2012-06-01

Meat consumption is inconsistently associated with the development of bladder cancer in several epidemiological studies. We performed a meta-analysis of evidence for relationships of meat consumption with risk of bladder cancer. Literature searches were conducted to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts published up to October 2010. Twenty publications from 10 cohort studies and 11 case-control studies were included in the analyses. We quantified associations with bladder cancer using meta-analysis of relative risk (RR) associated with the highest versus the lowest category of meat intake using random effect model. Pooled results indicate that overall meat intake was not related to the risk of bladder cancer (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.80-1.27), while high red and processed meat consumer had a significantly increased 17 and 10% risk, respectively, when comparing the highest with the lowest category of meat intake. In subgroup analyses, studies conduced in Unites States/Canada exhibited a positive relationship between high meat intake and bladder cancer risk, and studies using self-administered questionnaires for exposure assessment also showed a significant increased relative risk for high meat consumers. However, because of borderline significance and small number of publications in individual analyses, more studies, particularly well-designed prospective studies, are needed to confirm these findings.

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

2017-08-01

Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2001-01-01

This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Zhang

Full Text Available Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM and recurrent otitis media (ROM have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001. An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001. Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001. A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04. Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04. Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03. Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

System Analysis and Risk Assessment system (SARA) Version 4.0

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

1992-01-01

This NUREG is the tutorial for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons are provided that walk the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis